The Official Golf Thread

[DrinkingHarp]

Put your money were your mouth is.......

https://www.draftkings.com/pga-millionaire-maker

[Puckoon]

http://www.golfwrx.com/294081/the-21-golfers-who-can-actually-win-the-masters/

Good Read.

Each year, I create a filter to help predict the golfers who are most likely to win the Masters. I usually get the list down to roughly 23 or 24 players that meet the criterion. In last year's event, I predicted Bubba Watson would win the event — which he did at 25/1 odds.

Before I discuss my picks of this year's Masters, which this year includes 22 players, I want to go over what I call the "critical holes" for Augusta National. The critical holes in any tournament are the ones where the top finishers typically gain the most strokes on the field, as well as where the greatest deviation in scores exist. One of the interesting aspects about critical holes is that they often change over time due to changes in the course conditions, course design or a change in player strategy, and that creates a smaller deviation in scores.

Here's how No. 17 looks from the tee without the Eisenhower tree (Andrew Redington/Getty Images)
How No. 17 looks from the tee without the Eisenhower tree (Photo Credit: Andrew Redington/Getty Images).
In 2013 for instance, the critical holes were Nos. 7, 12, 13, 17 and 18. But the removal of the Eisenhower Tree on No. 17 created a smaller deviation in scores, so No. 17 was no longer a critical hole for participants. The par-5 13th hole has also seen a trend in more similar scores, so it has been replaced by the par-5 15th hole as a critical hole. The critical holes to watch out for at the 2015 Masters are Nos. 7, 12, 15 and 18.

Moving on to the tournament, I filtered out the past champions who are well past their time being competitive and the amateurs. Those 18 players include:

Antonio Murdaca (1000/1)
Ben Crenshaw (2500/1)
Bernhard Langer (300/1)
Bradley Neil (1000/1)
Byron Meth (2000/1)
Corey Conners (1000/1)
Fred Couples (150/1)
Gunn Yang (1000/1)
Ian Woosnam (2500/1)
Jose Maria Olazabal (1000/1)
Larry Mize (2500/1)
Mark O'Meara (2500/1)
Matias Dominguez (1000/1)
Mike Weir (1000/1)
Sandy Lyle (2500/1)
Scott Harvey (750/1)
Tom Watson (1000/1)
Trevor Immelman (500/1)
I also eliminated any first-time invitees, as the only first time invitee to ever win at Augusta was Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Those 13 players include:

Anirban Lahiri (300/1)
Bernd Wiesberger (250/1)
Brendon Todd (250/1)
Brian Harman (500/1)
Brooks Koepka (80/1)
Cameron Tringale (300/1)
Danny Willett (150/1)
Erik Compton (500/1)
James Hahn (200/1)
Morgan Hoffmann (250/1)
Robert Streb (300/1)
Seung-Yul Noh (300/1)
Shane Lowry (150/1)
Out of the group of first-time invitees, I would pay close attention to Shane Lowry, as he has a game that is a very good fit for Augusta because of the strong Red Zone Play (shots from 175-225 yards) that he has shown off this season. And of course, if Brooks Koepka is healthy, I expect him to have a good showing, as Augusta fits his game as well.

Unfortunately, I have to eliminate five international players because I do not have enough statistical information on their playing performance in the past four months. Last year, I eliminated five international players that I had insufficient data on as well. Only one of them made a minor run at winning — Thomas Bjorn, who finished T8.

The four players include:

Thomas Bjorn (300/1)
Darren Clarke (1000/1)
Stephen Gallacher (300/1)
Braden Grace (200/1)
Mikko Ilonen (500/1)
I will also eliminate these four American players, who have not played a sufficient amount of tournaments this season for me to statistically measure their key performance metrics:

Kevin Stadler (500/1)
Steve Stricker (200/1)
Tiger Woods (20/1)
Ben Crane (500/1)
Moving on with the list, I eliminated players who I think are too short to play well at Augusta National. They include:

Jim Furyk (70/1)
Zach Johnson (60/1)
Last year I had five players in the "too short to win at Augusta" list, and the 3 of the 5 made the cut with a best finish going to Jim Furyk, who tied for 14th.

Even more damning is the players who hit the ball too low. This is based on the Apex Height measurement, determined with Trackman on the PGA Tour. Last year, I had 10 players in the "too low of a trajectory to win at Augusta," and 9 of the 10 players missed the cut. The only player who did make the cut was "The Mechanic," Miguel Jimenez, who finished in 4th place. But if you don't hit it high at Augusta, your odds of winning are not very good. That's why I've eliminated these six players:

Camilo Villegas (250/1)
Graeme McDowell (150/1)
Jason Dufner (125/1)
Kevin Na (100/1)
Patrick Reed (25/1)
Thongchai Jaidee (500/1)
The player who stands out in this group is Patrick Reed. He's currently 183rd in Apex Height. Typically, he has been better than the average in Apex Height, but for whatever reason he is hitting the ball quite low this season. I think, like Jimenez, Reed has the ability to alter his ball flight. But given how critical Apex Height is to success at Augusta, the numbers suggest that his odds are not that great this season.

Furthermore, since the inauguration of the event, there have only been two winners of the Masters who had never previously made the cut: Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979, and Gene Sarazen in 1936. Reed has never made the cut at the Masters and neither have the three players below. Let's rule them out as well. They are:

Victor Dubuisson (100/1)
Ben Martin (300/1)
Sang-Moon Bae (250/1)
I will say that if anybody could break that mold it would be Reed, whose fiery behavior and competitiveness reminds me of John McEnroe. But for now, I'll stick with the numbers and the odds.

I also eliminated the players who missed the cut at the Shell Houston Open this week, because historically the odds of a player missing the cut the previous week and winning the next week are extremely slim. Furthermore, the Golf Club of Houston plays similarly to Augusta. Last year there were nine players who were not previously filtered out that missed the cut at Houston. Of those nine players, only five of them made the cut and the best finish was a T20 by Ian Poulter.

If a player did not play well at Houston, the odds are that they will not play well at a similar style of course like Augusta National. Those five players include:

Angel Cabrera (80/1)
Joost Luiten (205/1)
Lee Westwood (45/1)
Louis Oosthuizen (50/1)
Martin Kaymer (65/1)
Another key metric at Augusta is long approach shots, which I call "Red Zone" play. The Red Zone are approach shots from 175-225 yards. Last year, there were nine players on my list of weak Red Zone performers. The best finish came from John Huh, who finished T11. Let's rule out these 15 players because of their poor Red Zone play, which again, is critical at Augusta:

Bill Haas (80/1)
Charl Schwartzel (80/1)
Charley Hoffman (250/1)
Geoff Ogilvy (300/1)
Hunter Mahan (100/1)
Ian Poulter (80/1)
Jamie Donaldson (125/1)
John Senden (250/1)
Jonas Blixt (150/1)
Luke Donald (100/1)
Marc Leishman (200/1)
Matt Every (250/1)
Phil Mickelson (20/1)
Russell Henley (125/1)
Sergio Garcia (40/1)
There are some big surprises involved with that list of players. This includes former winners Charl Schwartzel and Phil Mickelson, who currently rank 194th and 134th (out of 206 players) respectively from the Red Zone. Typically good approach shot player Luke Donald ranks 198th, and Sergio Garcia currently ranks 205th out of 206 from the Red Zone. While those rankings can change dramatically when the season is finished, it is clear that these players are currently having major issues on those long approach shots.

Lastly, I have started a new metric this season, as I have noticed that there is some correlation between performance on straight-away par-4's and the Masters performance. Essentially, I have measured a scoring average for players on the straight-away par-4's and adjusted that scoring average based on the hole's difficulty. The five players left on the list who have struggled on straight-away par-4's this season are:

Ernie Els (150/1)
Padraig Harrington (150/1)
Justin Rose (40/1)
Webb Simpson (150/1)
Gary Woodland (125/1)
Finally, we are down to the 22 players that the numbers show can win at Augusta. They include:

Adam Scott (20/1)
Bill Horschel (70/1)
Brandt Snedeker (40/1)
Bubba Watson (10/1)
Chris Kirk (150/1)
Dustin Johnson (12/1)
Henrik Stenson (20/1)
Hideki Matsuyama (60/1)
Jason Day (12/1)
J.B. Holmes (35/1)
Jimmy Walker (18/1)
Jordan Spieth (8/1)
Keegan Bradley (60/1)
Kevin Streelman (150/1)
Matt Kuchar (30/1)
Miguel Angel Jimenez (150/1)
Paul Casey (70/1)
Rickie Fowler (30/1)
Rory McIlroy (8/1)
Ryan Moore (60/1)
Ryan Palmer (80/1)
Vijay Singh (125/1)
Of those 22 players, here are my top-10 picks to win the Masters:

Rory McIlroy (8/1)
Jordan Spieth (8/1)
Bubba Watson (10/1)
Jason Day (12/1)
Dustin Johnson (12/1)
Adam Scott (20/1)
Jimmy Walker (18/1)
J.B. Holmes (35/1)
Hideki Matsuyama (60/1)
Paul Casey (70/1)

[laoislad]

Moving on with the list, I eliminated players who I think are too short to play well at Augusta National. They include:

Zach Johnson (60/1)

[deiseach]

Not so long ago that list would have have included "lefties don't win at Augusta".

[Bord na Mona man]

Not so long ago that list would have have included "lefties don't win at Augusta".

Commies even!
I wonder could we narrow down the list by religious beliefs?
Past winners Langer, Bubba, Zach Johnson are all bible thumpers. Maybe there is a rating scale for it.

[Puckoon]

Moving on with the list, I eliminated players who I think are too short to play well at Augusta National. They include:

Zach Johnson (60/1)

Long been discussed (I think we did it here last year, from the same article). When Z Johnson won - the weather was very cold, maybe even wet. The big hitters did not have the advantage that they usually do.

[Puckoon]

Not so long ago that list would have have included "lefties don't win at Augusta".

Absolutely - all down to changes in the course and technology. Ask Martin Kaymer - he would love to play Augusta as a lefty, Donaldson too. Even if a lefty is 'off' the course definitely suits the strong right to left ball flight.

[beer baron]

Fowler,Kuchar,Kaymer and Dubuisson for me,Fowler's the main bet,others little savers,all miss the cut probably 

[Puckoon]

Interesting - had no idea the minds behind it were Irish. Been out for almost a year - Big Obama is a fan, he was using it last year.

[heganboy]

so as to jinx it, wee rory on the nose, and each way on matsuyama, woods and koepka.
money down drain

[Tony Baloney]

so as to jinx it, wee rory on the nose, and each way on matsuyama, woods and koepka.
money down drain

At least we know who to avoid 

I have some homework to do by lunchtime tomorrow! Kuchar, Day and A.n. Other e/w and possibly Spieth on the nose.

[offtheground]

Jason Day at 14/1, small e/w bets on Johnston 16/1 and Fowler & Reed at 33/1

[screenexile]

Spieth E/W @ 14s
McIlroy @ 5.5 to win
Lowry @ 13/2 best Rookie
Matsuyama E/W @ 60/1
Casey E/W @ 60/1

[Brick Tamlin]

Each way
Harrignton 100-1
Lowry 150-1
Day 14-1
Furyk 66-1
Matsuyama 66-1

[highorlow]

Patrick Reed
Jason Day
Jordan Speith
Ernie Els

The Big Easy is some value at 200/1