Brexit.

[imtommygunn]

Yeah i have thought that too. I think things like that could destabilise things a bit here from it.  You think short strand riots and how they stopped - money for community groups. What happens when there is no money - what stops the rioting. ( yes the law should but hasn't worked in the past)

Also you think the tories will fund policing for things like twaddel.

Nope!! Should show them up though for what they are, holding their communities to ransom!

Yeah but it could also show our peace process up to be fragile too!

I don't think it has anything to do with peace other than free wages for unqualified community workers (in parts), who drag down the decent people who care and work very hard in flashpoint areas of Belfast and Derry.. the Nolan show last night was cringing after showing this up

Poorer and more vulnerable people will be hurt most by sterling. Someone reckoned the recent movements in the currency will take 5% off the purchasing power of people in the UK. If you are say on disability or have depression or whatever and a limited income 5% is a lot to take off the weekly food bill which may already be quite tight.
Taking money off historically volatile communities who aren't the most economically privileged is not really coherent.

This wouldn't necessarily be to do with the strength of the pound though seafoid. This money tends to come from EU grants (the community workers I mean). With no EU grants the tories will hold the purse strings and the grants will be a lot less plentiful. (Ok sterling strength may impact what funds they have as less costs more etc but even if the pound was stong i would expect less grants).

Certain areas tend to be more or less governed by paramilitaries etc and the flag protests illustrated that. These guys are placated by money so keep things under control. No grants no control is really my point. It highlights the idiocy of some voting lines and people keeping their own down and things like that but there are definitely volatile things in the peace process which money helps.

[Milltown Row2]

Yeah i have thought that too. I think things like that could destabilise things a bit here from it.  You think short strand riots and how they stopped - money for community groups. What happens when there is no money - what stops the rioting. ( yes the law should but hasn't worked in the past)

Also you think the tories will fund policing for things like twaddel.

Nope!! Should show them up though for what they are, holding their communities to ransom!

Yeah but it could also show our peace process up to be fragile too!

I don't think it has anything to do with peace other than free wages for unqualified community workers (in parts), who drag down the decent people who care and work very hard in flashpoint areas of Belfast and Derry.. the Nolan show last night was cringing after showing this up

Poorer and more vulnerable people will be hurt most by sterling. Someone reckoned the recent movements in the currency will take 5% off the purchasing power of people in the UK. If you are say on disability or have depression or whatever and a limited income 5% is a lot to take off the weekly food bill which may already be quite tight.
Taking money off historically volatile communities who aren't the most economically privileged is not really coherent.

This wouldn't necessarily be to do with the strength of the pound though seafoid. This money tends to come from EU grants (the community workers I mean). With no EU grants the tories will hold the purse strings and the grants will be a lot less plentiful. (Ok sterling strength may impact what funds they have as less costs more etc but even if the pound was stong i would expect less grants).

Certain areas tend to be more or less governed by paramilitaries etc and the flag protests illustrated that. These guys are placated by money so keep things under control. No grants no control is really my point. It highlights the idiocy of some voting lines and people keeping their own down and things like that but there are definitely volatile things in the peace process which money helps.

What gets me is that we have 20 year old plus kids (young adults) who grew up in an environment that wasn't shooting bombing abduction and rioting, to the extent of the 70's 80's and very early 90's !! surely at some point this will come to a natural end ?

And are we talking about a very small minority that is holding the rest to ransom? At some point he PSNI and the DPP need to be real tough and say right we've had 20 years of this and to a certain point we've allowed it to happen, but that's it! times up money is up and deal with these gangsters once and for all!

[imtommygunn]

It pays for people(older) to sustain this in certain areas though which i think is why we get unrest. I think it is a minority but there are fairly repressed areas where this kind of stuff will be hard to nip in the bud and to be honest i am not sure when it will go away. Think sandy rowe, parts of chancel, short strand and places like that. (I think unionist politicians have a lot to answer for if i'm honest. if they would stop the petty stuff and try and develop the areas they are over then that would be a massive help e.g. east belfast).

There are varying schools of thought that the peace process was bought and i guess in certain places(though in the minority) that is correct but sensible people want an end to it.

Maybe this brexit thing will make the money run out and policing will nip it in the bud and we will have nothing to worry about!

[armaghniac]

It pays for people(older) to sustain this in certain areas though which i think is why we get unrest. I think it is a minority but there are fairly repressed areas where this kind of stuff will be hard to nip in the bud and to be honest i am not sure when it will go away. Think sandy rowe, parts of chancel, short strand and places like that. (I think unionist politicians have a lot to answer for if i'm honest. if they would stop the petty stuff and try and develop the areas they are over then that would be a massive help e.g. east belfast).

A lot of these places voted for Brexit, so no doubt they will welcome the opportunity to pay a price to get rid of the foreigners.

In general, this peace thing should have run its course after 20 years. In particular, money may well be tight in the next few years and other groups like farmers may absorb a lot of it post Brexit. PBP wanted Brexit too.

[ballinaman]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/scotland-to-publish-plans-for-second-independence-referendum-a7359071.html

[seafoid]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/scotland-to-publish-plans-for-second-independence-referendum-a7359071.html

with sterling down 20% versus the dollar Scotland's oïl revenues look a lot better

[omaghjoe]

So is this tesco unilever row linked to weak sterling?

Prices will have to go up but I think Unilever might have overplayed their hand here

[omaghjoe]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/scotland-to-publish-plans-for-second-independence-referendum-a7359071.html

with sterling down 20% versus the dollar Scotland's oïl revenues look a lot better

They're still pretty shit compared to Indyref1 era revenues. Any future independence manifesto would do well to steer clear of any reliance on oil revenues.... and oh yes have something f**king concrete on currency this time

[seafoid]

So is this tesco unilever row linked to weak sterling?

Prices will have to go up but I think Unilever might have overplayed their hand here

Yes. Prompted by STG.
Some agreement reached. But this issue will run and run. STG fall of 17% means 5% cut in UK punters purchasing power. The UK imports 40% of its food  .
Ireland has much better demographics. 

[LeoMc]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/scotland-to-publish-plans-for-second-independence-referendum-a7359071.html

with sterling down 20% versus the dollar Scotland's oïl revenues look a lot better

They're still pretty shit compared to Indyref1 era revenues. Any future independence manifesto would do well to steer clear of any reliance on oil revenues.... and oh yes have something f**king concrete on currency this time

I would say joining the Euro or at lease decoupling from Sterling is a major part of their play as they are planning IndyRef2 based on Brexit.
What could they make renting out their nuclear bases? Putin might be willing to drive the rent up.

[seafoid]

When I got back from London yesterday I had a bunch of Sterling notes
I needed to exchange, so I went to the currency Exchange Window
at the local bank. There was a short queue .

Just one guy in front of me...an Asian  who
was trying to exchange Sterling for Euros and he was very annoyed. 
He asked the teller, "Why it change?
Yestoday, I get two huna Euro of Sterling.  Today I get huna eighty?? Why it
change?"
The teller shrugged her shoulders and said, "Brexit fluctuations".
The Asian guy says, "Fluc you white people too!" 

[Milltown Row2]

[The Gs Man]

When I got back from London yesterday I had a bunch of Sterling notes
I needed to exchange, so I went to the currency Exchange Window
at the local bank. There was a short queue .

Just one guy in front of me...an Asian  who
was trying to exchange Sterling for Euros and he was very annoyed.
He asked the teller, "Why it change?
Yestoday, I get two huna Euro of Sterling.  Today I get huna eighty?? Why it
change?"
The teller shrugged her shoulders and said, "Brexit fluctuations".
The Asian guy says, "Fluc you white people too!"

Come on now Milltown!  Wasn't that bad! 

[Milltown Row2]

When I got back from London yesterday I had a bunch of Sterling notes
I needed to exchange, so I went to the currency Exchange Window
at the local bank. There was a short queue .

Just one guy in front of me...an Asian  who
was trying to exchange Sterling for Euros and he was very annoyed.
He asked the teller, "Why it change?
Yestoday, I get two huna Euro of Sterling.  Today I get huna eighty?? Why it
change?"
The teller shrugged her shoulders and said, "Brexit fluctuations".
The Asian guy says, "Fluc you white people too!"

Come on now Milltown!  Wasn't that bad!

Corny one for Friday thread....            

I think in Seafoid's head, Ireland will be the new Germany! I hope it is as my H/O is in Dublin 

[seafoid]

 The voices that thronged on the airwaves in triumph on the first dawn of the post-Brexit future were those of the Thatcherite past: Liam Fox, Iain Duncan Smith and Norman Tebbit. Such figures who feel, and not without reason, that "we are the masters now" differ from Mr Cameron not only in their contempt for all endeavours European, but often also in their reactionary stance on social and other affairs. Most, but not all, of the Brexit wing of the Conservative party opposed, for example, gay marriage, the one solid progressive achievement on the home front which the outgoing prime minister could point to, as he acknowledged that his time was up. Underpinning this mostly reactionary pro-Brexit cabal in parliament is a motley crew of border-hopping, non-domiciled tycoons and ruthless press barons, a monied elite which has masked its audacious bid to grab the reins in folksy, homespun slogans.

"The new British government under prime minister Theresa May appears to have chosen an economic course which could bear substantial risks," said Hans Redeker, strategist at Morgan Stanley.
Noting that rhetoric against the "international elite" would not help fund the UK's 6 per cent of GDP current account deficit, Mr Redeker said: "The substantial foreign funding needs should make authorities nurse the supply side of the economy. The opposite seems to be taking place with 'hard Brexit' talk adding to the problem."