Grading of British Prime Ministers in their management of NI

Started by Eamonnca1, January 31, 2025, 06:05:04 PM

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Eamonnca1

My assessment of British Prime Ministers solely based on how they handled Northern Ireland, starting with Wilson.

Wilson
Took office at the height of the Civil Rights movement and all the strife that caused it, which must have been a tough thing to deal with. I don't doubt that Terence O'Neil wanted to get things sorted out, but he was having a hard time facing down the hardliners on his side, notably Paisley. When things were getting out of control, Wilson sent in the troops, which probably made sense at the time which was reflected in the way the soldiers were welcomed by nationalists at first. We all know what happened next, however.

Sunningdale was an admirable attempt to get power-sharing going, but it was too far ahead of its time for the Paisleyites. The Ulster Workers Strike and the "spongers" speech alienated the unionists. It was 100% true, but not really helpful in the long run. He also failed to end internment that had been introduced under Heath. In sum, he did his best, but his best wasn't good enough.
Grade: C

Callaghan
As part of the end of internment, his government ended Special Category Status for paramilitary prisoners, laying the foundation for the blanket protest and hunger strikes. Pushed an "Ulsterisation" policy, ostensibly to use local security forces and make the army less visible, but in practice it was like arming the Rangers supporters and letting them loose on the Celtic supporters. Made some behind-the-scenes attempts to reach a resolution, but kept SF out of it which was doomed to fail. I don't think he was malicious, he was just another clueless British PM trying to rule a country that he knew little about.
Grade: D-

Thatcher 1.0 (Pre-hunger strikes)
Her doctrinaire approach to prisoners combined with her stubbornness and lack of knowledge about Ireland to deadly effect. She kept up an unprovoked fight with the criminalisation policy and reaped a whirlwind.
Grade: F-

Thatcher 2.0 (Post-hunger strikes)
Started to get the message that a military solution was not on the cards. Signed the Anglo-Irish Agreement and recognised the Irish dimension, albeit had to be dragged kicking and screaming into it by the US. Her stubborn personality came in handy in facing down the Ulster Says No campaign.
Grade: C+

Major
Prioritised the north in a way that his predecessor did not. Seemed to understand the need for a political settlement. Was lucky to have the underrated Albert Reynolds to work with and the supportive Clinton in the White House. Got Peter "Babbling" Brooke to make his crucial "The British government has no selfish, strategic, or economic interest in Northern Ireland" statement, and and got the Downing Street Declaration done, both of which paved the way to the ceasefire. Dragged his feet a bit when the IRA called their ceasefire and had to be reminded to keep it at the top of the priority list, but overall I think he did a reasonable job.
Grade: B+

Blair
Irish ancestry and childhood holidays in Donegal gave him a good understanding of Ireland. Finished the job that Major started. Was forceful when he needed to be with the north's politicians, but understood the sensitivities too. Appointing Mo Mowlam as Secretary of State was a good choice. "The peace train is leaving; I want Sinn Fein on it" is a memorable quote. He was firm but fair. Unlike his predecessors he understood the need to have all parties involved, however distasteful some of them are. His overall legacy is tarnished by the Iraq war, but on domestic policy and his handling of NI, it's hard to fault him.
Grade: A+

Brown
Only lasted 3 years in the top job that he'd waited over a decade for, so it's hard to assign a grade on this one. Power-sharing was restored shortly after he took office. The biggest deal was probably the devolution of policing and justice. Thanks to Major and Blair (and of course Hume, Clinton, Trimble et al) he was dealt an easier hand than his Troubles-era predecessors, but overall he did a decent job.
Grade: A

Cameron 1.0 (Pre-Brexit vote)
Did a decent job in the circumstances. The flag protests were a problem, but not as bad as the bombings and shootings of the 1970s. Completed the devolution of policing and justice that Brown had started. Stormont House Agreement sorted out welfare reform and legacy issues. Fresh Start Agreement dealt with more welfare reform issues and secured funding for cross-border initiatives. I feel like Cameron was well briefed on the north and understood the sensitivities. The apology for Bloody Sunday was appropriate.
Grade: B+

Cameron 2.0 (Post-Brexit vote)
Like the compulsive gambler in the casino who thinks he's on a winning streak, he won his high-stakes gamble of the Scottish independence referendum, and for the craic decided to have another one on EU membership, complacently secure in the knowledge that he was going to win this one too. Ended up riding  a coach-and-horses through the Good Friday Agreement with his reckless gamble. We're still trying to clean up the entirely preventable mess today. Inexcusable.
Grade: D-

May
Also took a reckless gamble, this time by calling a snap election in an attempt to increase her majority, but ended up with a reduced majority, leading to the confidence-and-supply arrangement with the DUP. The Backstop was a plus, but she couldn't get her deal through Parliament and wanted to protect ex-soldiers from "vexatious" legal cases.
Grade: D+

Johnson
Negotiated the NI Protocol. Won a landslide in the election, booting the DUP back to irrelevance and ousting Nigel Dodds from the Commons. New Decade, New Approach Agreement brought power-sharing back with extra funding and a positive approach to the Irish language. Attempted to rewrite the Protocol that they'd agreed to, but all the hullabaloo led to the DUP ousting Snarlene Foster. Tried to unilaterally override the Protocol to placate the unionists but couldn't risk a trade war. Bit of a mixed record overall, and as it has been with his persona since his public school days, it's hard to tell if he bumbled into his successes or if they were the result of some intelligence hidden behind the crazy hair.
Grade: C

Truss
This dozy bimbo didn't stick around for long, but long enough to do some damage with her weird mini-budget. Probably wasn't even aware that NI existed.
Grade: Ungraded

Sunak
Got the Windsor Framework negotiated with von der Leyen, straightening out the Brexit trading arrangements. Held the line on how dual-market access is a good thing for the region, and addressed unionist concerns enough to get power-sharing restored. Had a good relationship with the Irish government. At the time I remember saying that, against my better judgement, Sunak was a decent PM for a Tory. As far as NI is concerned he played a bit of a blinder. Underrated.
Grade: A

Starmer
Too early to say.

bennydorano

Good post.

The dreary steeples have flummoxed them all & their predecessors.

Orior

I'm sure all the real dozy bimbos would never want to be associated with Liz "Pork markets" Truss.
Cover me in chocolate and feed me to the lesbians

Eamonnca1

Quote from: bennydorano on January 31, 2025, 06:44:54 PMGood post.

The dreary steeples have flummoxed them all & their predecessors.

Seriously. They probably get all excited as soon as they take the job until someone drops the NI brief on the desk and they think, "Oh. That place."

armaghniac

You didn't mention Heath, who did a great deal ensure that things got so bad in the first place.
Perhaps May deserves a C, as she had something of the right idea, but not the numbers.
MAGA Make Armagh Great Again

Eamonnca1

Heath and his predecessors I'll do later. I was going to start with Thatcher since she's the first one I have any memory of.

armaghniac

Quote from: Eamonnca1 on January 31, 2025, 07:26:36 PMHeath and his predecessors I'll do later. I was going to start with Thatcher since she's the first one I have any memory of.

Heath's immediate predecessor was Wilson (first term). Before that the prime ministers were not so influential, unless you go back to the 1920s.
MAGA Make Armagh Great Again