Quote from: JPGJOHNNYG on March 30, 2024, 07:57:12 AMQuote from: drillsergeant on March 30, 2024, 12:27:26 AMQuote from: GTP on March 30, 2024, 12:05:55 AMQuote from: gallsman on March 29, 2024, 09:23:34 PMMy understanding is dual mandates are not permitted so she would have to resign. Bye election would depend on if a general election was to be within the 3 months of resignation.Quote from: GTP on March 29, 2024, 08:59:09 PMThe SF representatives mentioned are stepping down at the next election so again no bye election required.
Gildernew is contesting the European seat in June. Will she step down if elected? She should, but with Westminster election one a few months later I wonder would there be any point.
With General Election looming surely now the DUP are looking over there shoulders in South Antrim, East Belfast and now Lagan Valley.
Regarding FST - Sinn Fein will need a strong candidate to hold that seat. No doubt they face a unity Unionist Candidate with it going to the wire.
With demographic shift FST should finally be beyond Unionism even with a unity candidate. I think this year they will win comfortably, although comfortably in FST in recent years has been double figures😂.
Lagan valley most certainly is in play, will be interesting to see how the unionist community reacts to the Donaldson fall out, will they keep voting DUP to keep SF out, will they drift to the TUV headbangers. If the UUP don't massively profit from this crisis then they truly are finished.
SA now looks good for UUP. EB, LV and even EA and Strangford could see big improvements for Alliance with maybe a couple of gains.
If the nationalist voters bothered to turn up in upper bann for a change then SF could come through the middle of a split unionist vote. EL is similar but would need a miracle perfect storm.