Brexit.

[Rossfan]

Exactly.

[Hardy]

It is all very well to laugh at the DUP's discomfiture - and it is very satisfying at a gut level. But these people are dangerous in their stupidity and they have the ability to bring very dark forces onto the streets who are even more dangerously stupid.

The DUP are of no consequence to the EU or the Brits. The Brits have no cards to play and will do a deal that is economically necessary. But it is we who will suffer the consequences of what will be sold to neanderthal loyalists as a united Ireland by the back door.

The Irish government, the EU and sane Brits have all been warning that a hard border could provide the opportunity for "dissidents" to reopen the tinderbox of the troubles. A border in the Irish Sea has just as much potential to have it reopened by the other side.

[seafoid]

It is all very well to laugh at the DUP's discomfiture - and it is very satisfying at a gut level. But these people are dangerous in their stupidity and they have the ability to bring very dark forces onto the streets who are even more dangerously stupid.

The DUP are of no consequence to the EU or the Brits. The Brits have no cards to play and will do a deal that is economically necessary. But it is we who will suffer the consequences of what will be sold to neanderthal loyalists as a united Ireland by the back door.

The Irish government, the EU and sane Brits have all been warning that a hard border could provide the opportunity for "dissidents" to reopen the tinderbox of the troubles. A border in the Irish Sea has just as much potential to have it reopened by the other side.

The DUP have the fate of the NI economy in their hands. Their default Brexit position could cut NI incomes by 10%. Britishness is all well and good between consenting adults but it has cost NI protestants a lot over the last 30 years where it hurts, in their wallets. 

The province has been underperforming for years and it doesn't need DUPnomics right now. . Bringing the UDF into play would not be strategically wise either. Someone has to mop up and there are bills to pay. The DUP has no coherent ideas as to how to move NI forward.

The UK is a complete mess which adds to the complexity. Brexit is insane.

The DUP kneejerk reaction to all things Irish is f**king stupid on top. Someone was on about BBCNI showing English snow conditions rather than those down South last night but the time when NI could afford that sort of nonsense is well and truly over.
States collapse at times like now. If I was a northen Prod I would be sickened by the antics of the DUP. 

[Orior]

This morning with regard to the open border, Teresa May had to decide:

1) what is the best decision for her career?
2) what is the best decision for the Conservatives?
3) what is the best decision for her Government?
4) what is the best decision for England?
5) what is the best decision for Britain?
6) what is the best decision for the UK?
7) what is the best decision for N. Ireland?
what is the best decision for the DUP?

Each is probably a different answer, but would the above ordered list reflect her priorities?

[haveaharp]

This morning with regard to the open border, Teresa May had to decide:

1) what is the best decision for her career?
2) what is the best decision for the Conservatives?
3) what is the best decision for her Government?
4) what is the best decision for England?
5) what is the best decision for Britain?
6) what is the best decision for the UK?
7) what is the best decision for N. Ireland?
what is the best decision for the DUP?

Each is probably a different answer, but would the above ordered list reflect her priorities?

7 and 8 want swapping

[seafoid]

14:48

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/feb/28/brexit-pmqs-boris-johnson-claims-irish-border-fears-being-exploited-to-try-to-frustrate-brexit-politics-live

Q: Do you think the Northern Ireland problem is soluble?


Major says there is no more complex problem in the talks than the problem of Northern Ireland. That was obvious from the start. But some people who should have known better denied this was a problem. The can was kicked down the road, he says.

He says staying in a customs union would solve the problem, he says.

But he says the extraordinary improvement in peace in Northern Ireland is a significant prize.

And people may not think trade with Ireland is that important. But the UK does more trade with Ireland than with South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand put together, he says.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qLo7z50Tt2g

They say they've got control of you
But that's not true you know
They say they're a part of you
And that's a lie you know

[armaghniac]

The Irish government, the EU and sane Brits have all been warning that a hard border could provide the opportunity for "dissidents" to reopen the tinderbox of the troubles. A border in the Irish Sea has just as much potential to have it reopened by the other side.

No. it doesn't. A few paperwork checks at Cairnryan or vets checking cows are not easily targetted by loyalist loonies. A border at the border not only provides easier targets but it creates a whole smuggling industry that would entirely undermine the PSNI. There is no symmetry in these matters, as usual, and it is lazy to imply that there is. 

[Hardy]

The Irish government, the EU and sane Brits have all been warning that a hard border could provide the opportunity for "dissidents" to reopen the tinderbox of the troubles. A border in the Irish Sea has just as much potential to have it reopened by the other side.

No. it doesn't. A few paperwork checks at Cairnryan or vets checking cows are not easily targetted by loyalist loonies. A border at the border not only provides easier targets but it creates a whole smuggling industry that would entirely undermine the PSNI. There is no symmetry in these matters, as usual, and it is lazy to imply that there is. 

I sincerely regret my laziness. But I never suggested that loyalist loonies would attack paperwork checkers or vets. Experience would suggest that loyalist loonies, no more than their DUP motivators and/or would-be handlers are known for strategic astuteness, would not be noted for well targeted tactics. Random killings of random Catholics, pub shoot-ups and car bombings were more their style.

[Orior]

The Irish government, the EU and sane Brits have all been warning that a hard border could provide the opportunity for "dissidents" to reopen the tinderbox of the troubles. A border in the Irish Sea has just as much potential to have it reopened by the other side.

No. it doesn't. A few paperwork checks at Cairnryan or vets checking cows are not easily targetted by loyalist loonies. A border at the border not only provides easier targets but it creates a whole smuggling industry that would entirely undermine the PSNI. There is no symmetry in these matters, as usual, and it is lazy to imply that there is. 

I sincerely regret my laziness. But I never suggested that loyalist loonies would attack paperwork checkers or vets. Experience would suggest that loyalist loonies, no more than their DUP motivators and/or would-be handlers are known for strategic astuteness, would not be noted for well targeted tactics. Random killings of random Catholics, pub shoot-ups and car bombings were more their style.

I can just imagine Sammy, from Ballymacarrett in East Belfast, say "hang on till I right all thon down"

[LeoMc]

The DUP missed a trick back in December. They could have sold special status as an opportunity for NI to become an economic powerhouse able to pay its own way in the new UK with the benefits of having a foot in Europe with the "freedom of being part of the UK. They didn't because of their insecurity (they know Weatmonister does not see here as truly British) and because SF proposed special status (they couldn't be seen to be agreeing).
However they have used up all their political capital, between embarrassing May in December and the failed talks here leaving May with one more mess to clear up. Their influence and threats over this EU proposal, and it is only a proposal, will have little traction in Westminister. If is only the influence of the Hard Brexiters, Majors b**tards, that they remain relevant. However May needs to tackle that rump of her party more successfully than Cameron did and she needs to attempt it soon or the Tories will pull themselves apart for a generation giving Unionists no ear in the UK government.

[johnneycool]

If there is to be a border down the Irish Sea then it would be the doing of the Brits and not the EU.

Is that not the reason Barnier didn't include it in the draft legal document?

Arlene in her pig ignorance will reject the golden goose again.
Unionist business people should be in her ear.

[Ronnie]

The DUP missed a trick back in December. They could have sold special status as an opportunity for NI to become an economic powerhouse able to pay its own way in the new UK with the benefits of having a foot in Europe with the "freedom of being part of the UK. They didn't because of their insecurity (they know Weatmonister does not see here as truly British) and because SF proposed special status (they couldn't be seen to be agreeing).
However they have used up all their political capital, between embarrassing May in December and the failed talks here leaving May with one more mess to clear up. Their influence and threats over this EU proposal, and it is only a proposal, will have little traction in Westminister. If is only the influence of the Hard Brexiters, Majors b**tards, that they remain relevant. However May needs to tackle that rump of her party more successfully than Cameron did and she needs to attempt it soon or the Tories will pull themselves apart for a generation giving Unionists no ear in the UK government.

Accurate enough.  Johnson, Gove, Davis, Dodds and Foster obviously want the hardest Brexit possible.  Someone with more expertise than me needs to explain to ordinary people what happens to the British economy when the EU start throwing up obstacles to British exports in the form passporting refusals to financial services, hiking tariffs and throwing red tape all over British product.  What also needs spelt out are the rights and benefits that we've obtained from the UK being in the EU.  The Great Repeal Bill doesn't seem to be clawing back too many of these.  This isn't scaremongering.  It's not capitalism v socialism.  Unfettered free markets work well and are necessary in some instances.  On top of the economic and political issues are the constitutional legal arguments.  Contrary to what joe soap has been led to believe neither the ECJ nor the ECtHR is the arbitrator of our British law.  The UK and NI judiciary ultimately decide these issues.  NI has a constitution.  What also needs to be stressed is that this is all unexplored territory.  Nobody knows how institutions react to what the other decides.  We really do live in interesting times.  Sure doesn't John Major agree with Nigel Farage re: a second Brexit vote?

[armaghniac]

Explaining to ordinary people is fine, but they have to want to listen. John Major made an honest effort today, but who will pay attention?

[seafoid]

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/the-dup-has-played-political-hardball-and-lost-1.3409274

The DUP's handling of the Brexit talks raises a wider question about its negotiating style. There is a lot to admire about the party's hardball stance at Westminster – traditionally, unionists who found themselves with a seat at the table were patronised and bamboozled before being ejected at the first opportunity.

The DUP knows to get what it can, when it can, however it can. But there still comes a point when you need to know your limitations and maintain relationships. In humiliating May to no avail, the DUP crossed that line, in London and Brussels. The collapse of the Stormont talks suggests it has crossed that line in Belfast as well.

[seafoid]

This is outrageous
A restaurant in NI serving food from within the single market. Unionists will have to stick with bangers and mash under DUP rule.

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/food-drink-hospitality/new-belfast-restaurant-to-serve-up-a-taste-of-the-med-36655346.html