Future Shock - RTE last night

[dubnut]

Gweltyah dont be so pathetic, you suggested we were all waiting for a response, I wasnt and pointed this out.
The reason was that I happened to think along the lines of Lone Shark.


Try responding to one of my posts without an insult, you are starting to appear very childish.  

[GweylTah]

Gweltyah dont be so pathetic, you suggested we were all waiting for a response, I wasnt and pointed this out.
The reason was that I happened to think along the lines of Lone Shark.


Try responding to one of my posts without an insult, you are starting to appear very childish.  

Sorry, I confused you with Donagh.

Your handles both make me think of doughnuts. My mistake.

[Fear ón Srath Bán]

...
In Ireland this is running at just over ten. That, combined with the huge housing residual supply being held but not used, which as I mentioned above was not touched in the programme at all, is much more likely to precipitate the correction than the US dollar moving.

Don't fully agree there Lone Shark, they laboured on how when the construction stops, as it inevitably will, and the 30% of construction workers who are foreign nationals go home, there'll be a sudden and stark glut of further empty accommodation/properties on the market; in addition to those that are already sitting there empty.

[dubnut]

Sorry, I confused you with Donagh.
Your handles both make me think of doughnuts. My mistake.

You even manage to squeeze an insult into an apology, how very talented 

[GweylTah]

I wouldn't want to be confused with Donagh, either, but it was an onnocent mistake and no insult was intended. Your handles are similar and sould even more similar, sometimes your attitudes are, too, though at least it seem you have your own opinion and mind of your own, thats how it comes across anyway.

Sorry, OK?  Back to the issue: the threat or opportunity of a looming property crash.  Have you an opinion on this?

[Lone Shark]

...
In Ireland this is running at just over ten. That, combined with the huge housing residual supply being held but not used, which as I mentioned above was not touched in the programme at all, is much more likely to precipitate the correction than the US dollar moving.

Don't fully agree there Lone Shark, they laboured on how when the construction stops, as it inevitably will, and the 30% of construction workers who are foreign nationals go home, there'll be a sudden and stark glut of further empty accommodation/properties on the market; in addition to those that are already sitting there empty.

But that's just it - they talked about all the houses that will be empty when all the immigrants go home, but they neglected to mention that we're starting from a base of a quarter of a million unoccupied units - how new estates like Adamstown have around 20% occupancy on the units released to the market so far. I find that statistic horrific, and it just surprised me that it was brushed over. Moore McDowell's comment about "overhang" was the closest it came to being referred to.



Gweyltah, some investment properties might come on the market, but as I was saying the increased restrictions on credit plus the much bigger tax burden we're all facing into will more than eliminate any reduced affordability that will result from this, for most people anyway.

[highorlow]

Is yer man a blueshirt that was doing this documentary?

I switched off when the clown started to compare us to London, different currency, diiferent market, different interest rates, he obviously went to schumer and baucus school of economics!

[GweylTah]

Is yer man a blueshirt that was doing this documentary?

I switched off when the clown started to compare us to London, different currency, diiferent market, different interest rates, he obviously went to schumer and baucus school of economics!

In Greater Dublin anyway now, there are more relevant parallels with London and SE England in the early 1990s than there are differences - thats what points to a crash. But, sure, sense was restored (for a time) there and things eventually recovered.

[dubnut]

Sorry, OK?  Back to the issue: the threat or opportunity of a looming property crash.  Have you an opinion on this?

Accepted!  

As I said, I would agree with Lone Sharks post, no need for me to type the same thing again.

From my personal opinion I bought about 2 yrs ago and value has gone up by approx 90K since.
I cant see it falling by more than that, but I bought this house as a keeper after trading up a few times over the past 6-7 years so wont be looking to sell.
Maybe if I did intend on upgrading I might be a bit more nervy about the whole thing.

p.s. I can think of some posters I would take real offense at being confused with, Donagh is not one of them.

[highorlow]

In Greater Dublin anyway now, there are more relevant parallels with London and SE England in the early 1990s than there are differences - thats what points to a crash. But, sure, sense was restored (for a time) there and things eventually recovered.

London Population 7,500,000
Dublin Population ..1,000,000

?

[Declan]

In the dim and distant past meself and the missus had to have a deposit of 20% before the banks etc would look at us. Even with the multiple then of 5 times my salary it was hard going but and I know I'm going to sound like a dinosaur - We didn't drive new cars, we didn't take fancy holidays/weekend breaks, we didn't have large credit card balances - we lived within our means and they were the hard choices we made to get what we wanted. The availability of "free" credit, 100% mortgages etc and the general live for the moment me fein outlook surely means that there will be some pain involved and it will probably be the folks in the middle who will get hit the hardest. As Billy said the bigger impact is within the wider employment sector if construction slows down - as it has to. Just how many of the economic migrants leave etc and the availability of housing remains to be seen. Throw in an election campaign, currency fluctuations, proposed interst rate hikes from the ECB and we have the perfect recipe for delaying the inevitable.

I just hope that its not as bad as I fear it will be. 

[Fear ón Srath Bán]

...
In Ireland this is running at just over ten. That, combined with the huge housing residual supply being held but not used, which as I mentioned above was not touched in the programme at all, is much more likely to precipitate the correction than the US dollar moving.

Don't fully agree there Lone Shark, they laboured on how when the construction stops, as it inevitably will, and the 30% of construction workers who are foreign nationals go home, there'll be a sudden and stark glut of further empty accommodation/properties on the market; in addition to those that are already sitting there empty.

But that's just it - they talked about all the houses that will be empty when all the immigrants go home, but they neglected to mention that we're starting from a base of a quarter of a million unoccupied units - how new estates like Adamstown have around 20% occupancy on the units released to the market so far. I find that statistic horrific, and it just surprised me that it was brushed over. Moore McDowell's comment about "overhang" was the closest it came to being referred to.

OK, they could and should have set the scene more emphatically. And yes, such unoccupancy statistics have apocalyptic connotations (as a home owner).

[resdubwhite]

Anyone care to comment on the ESRI's comments that property is ten to fifteen percent overvalued in this country.

It seems to me thats a little on the low side.
Anyway, me thinks that the promises of certain parties with regard to Stamp duty is doing as much damage to the property market as increased interest rates. With rates likely to be 5. to 1 percent higher this time next year the slowdown probably will continue in the short term.
I'd be more enclined to believe that we will have a correction rather than a crash. 

[GweylTah]

Sorry, OK?  Back to the issue: the threat or opportunity of a looming property crash.  Have you an opinion on this?

Accepted!  

As I said, I would agree with Lone Sharks post, no need for me to type the same thing again.

From my personal opinion I bought about 2 yrs ago and value has gone up by approx 90K since.
I cant see it falling by more than that, but I bought this house as a keeper after trading up a few times over the past 6-7 years so wont be looking to sell.
Maybe if I did intend on upgrading I might be a bit more nervy about the whole thing.

p.s. I can think of some posters I would take real offense at being confused with, Donagh is not one of them.

Why don't you sell it now (at the top) and then rent for a while and then buy back another similar property after the correction that is very likely going to come?

[GweylTah]

In Greater Dublin anyway now, there are more relevant parallels with London and SE England in the early 1990s than there are differences - thats what points to a crash. But, sure, sense was restored (for a time) there and things eventually recovered.

London Population 7,500,000
Dublin Population ..1,000,000

?

I never knew that!  The only difference is scale, the close parallels still exist.