A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.

[weareros]

The calling of a "Border poll" is in the hands of the Brit Sec of State if it appears to him/her there might be a majority in the North in favour of a UI.

All very vague and subjective, probably deliberately so in the context of 1998.
No guidelines or criteria laid down anywhere.
Different Secs of State will have varying ideas of what might appear to them as a majority in favour.

Possibly only come about as a result of Court proceedings taken by someone from the Nationalist community.

Yes, as I've said before this was the part of the GFA where SF/SDLP were asleep, though maybe the vagueness of this was the price for prisoner release and SF realising they would have to play the long game, who knows?  But trying to force the SoS into calling a border poll is like trying to eat soup with a fork.  There are no solid criteria.  Labour (the British version) have already said a poll won't be called during their tenure, so there's no chance before 2030.

Apart from giving sole power to the British Secretary of State (who often tends to be a thick bollocks), the agreement is clear enough on the conditions:

'Subject to paragraph 3, the Secretary of State shall exercise the power
under paragraph 1 if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of
those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to
be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland.'

To me that is a few things.

1) Opinion polls would need to consistently start showing a majority in favour. The problem with opinion polls is that the ones the SOS tends to heed the most (eg Arins, University of Liverpool) are using biased panels and face to face interviews, which IMO undercount the UI vote. The one that captures it the most, ie LucidTalk, will only run United Ireland polls when contracted by the Belfast Telegraph. The BelTel makes headlines out of the "if a vote was held tomorrow" and ignores the aspiration vote. For example in the poll they ran in February, United Ireland led 51% to 44% if a vote was held in 15-20 years, but only at 39% if held tomorrow. No vote is going to be held tomorrow so that is just stupid.

2) Nationalist vote comfortably starts to exceed the Unionist vote. That has only happened once so far in the local elections last year. Again, the SOS tends to look more at the parliament vote, and the nationalist vote is hindered by ceding to Alliance to keep a Unionist out. While it may be good to have Sorcha Eastwood in parliament to counter the likes of Jim Allister, all I see is her taking selfies in London. SF/SDLP should stop this, and just focus on increasing the nationalist vote. The harsh reality is that it was 39% in 1998 and it is still 39%. The local election result of 44% is probably more accurate - and that is getting close.
 
3) In a Stormont vote, a majority of MLAs vote for a border poll. This would require Alliance siding with nationalism, and a way get such a vote on the agenda, and for the SOS to respect it.

[gallsman]

The Poor people in the 26 getting called bad names when they have a partitionist mindset, I'm not going to sleep tonight with the guilt of all they have had to endure. 

Again, just throw out shite like this but cry your lamps out when so much as a murmur is raised by someone in the south not wanting Mary Lou to be their overlord.

[Rossfan]

A few prize specimens around alright gallsman.

[johnnycool]

The Poor people in the 26 getting called bad names when they have a partitionist mindset, I'm not going to sleep tonight with the guilt of all they have had to endure. 

Again, just throw out shite like this but cry your lamps out when so much as a murmur is raised by someone in the south not wanting Mary Lou to be their overlord.

That's where I think SF need to step back a bit of the United Ireland bit.

Lets get the UI first before we consider the socialist republic bit.

[Pub Bore]

The Poor people in the 26 getting called bad names when they have a partitionist mindset, I'm not going to sleep tonight with the guilt of all they have had to endure. 

Again, just throw out shite like this but cry your lamps out when so much as a murmur is raised by someone in the south not wanting Mary Lou to be their overlord.

That's where I think SF need to step back a bit of the United Ireland bit.

Lets get the UI first before we consider the socialist republic bit.

Part of what SF could do in opposition, in regard to the North, is to ensure that FF delivers its manifesto commitments to the Shared Island Fund, all of which I support.  Also remind them now and again that this is in the manifesto "The unity of all the Irish people within a shared state is, and shall remain, a founding value and objective of the Fianna Fáil party."  OK, its says "shared state" not "unitary state" and it's the "FF Party" not "FF government", but on the other hand it's an objective, not merely an aspiration.        

[armaghniac]

The Poor people in the 26 getting called bad names when they have a partitionist mindset, I'm not going to sleep tonight with the guilt of all they have had to endure. 

Again, just throw out shite like this but cry your lamps out when so much as a murmur is raised by someone in the south not wanting Mary Lou to be their overlord.

That's where I think SF need to step back a bit of the United Ireland bit.

Lets get the UI first before we consider the socialist republic bit.

We want a democratic republic, and if the people of Ireland don't want socialism then that is they should get. The place for arguing about socialism is in the elections held at that time.

[Truthsayer]

A few prize specimens around alright gallsman.

Ross now hiding behind a nordie who spoke up to defend him. Name calling doesn't negate you justifying Michael Martin's atrocious comments Ross.

[Rossfan]

I said he might have a point regarding the Provo 'campaign" in the 26....murders, bank robberies, kidnappings,extortion....
Now go away and gave a good sh1te for yourself.

[Tubberman]

I said he might have a point regarding the Provo 'campaign" in the 26....murders, bank robberies, kidnappings,extortion....
Now go away and gave a good sh1te for yourself.

Shooting gardaí doesn't go down well with the average person. Maybe there's a mistaken assumption that the gardaí are viewed similarly to the RUC were.

[Truthsayer]

I said he might have a point regarding the Provo 'campaign" in the 26....murders, bank robberies, kidnappings,extortion....
Now go away and gave a good sh1te for yourself.

He had no point. It wasnt a one-way war as he suggested. There certainly was wrongs done including murders carried out by Republicans.
The worst atrocities in the south were carried out by loyalists that Gardai didn't even bother to investigate... Dublin/Monaghan bombs... so hardly one-way.
Maybe is you needs a good clear-out.
 

[trueblue1234]

I said he might have a point regarding the Provo 'campaign" in the 26....murders, bank robberies, kidnappings,extortion....
Now go away and gave a good sh1te for yourself.

Shooting gardaí doesn't go down well with the average person. Maybe there's a mistaken assumption that the gardaí are viewed similarly to the RUC were.

That's a fair point. As does the shooting of civilians by the state. And trying to imply that there was only one side in the troubles should be enough to end a politicians career in the south but it doesn't seem to be the case. 

[Tubberman]

I said he might have a point regarding the Provo 'campaign" in the 26....murders, bank robberies, kidnappings,extortion....
Now go away and gave a good sh1te for yourself.

Shooting gardaí doesn't go down well with the average person. Maybe there's a mistaken assumption that the gardaí are viewed similarly to the RUC were.

That's a fair point. As does the shooting of civilians by the state. And trying to imply that there was only one side in the troubles should be enough to end a politicians career in the south but it doesn't seem to be the case. 

Yes, a ridiculous statement, I can't think of any reason or justification for it.
What I will say is that I hadn't heard of those comments at all until I saw them on this thread.
They had very little coverage in national media, and I would say minimal impact on anyone's voting intentions

[trueblue1234]

I said he might have a point regarding the Provo 'campaign" in the 26....murders, bank robberies, kidnappings,extortion....
Now go away and gave a good sh1te for yourself.

Shooting gardaí doesn't go down well with the average person. Maybe there's a mistaken assumption that the gardaí are viewed similarly to the RUC were.

That's a fair point. As does the shooting of civilians by the state. And trying to imply that there was only one side in the troubles should be enough to end a politicians career in the south but it doesn't seem to be the case. 

Yes, a ridiculous statement, I can't think of any reason or justification for it.
What I will say is that I hadn't heard of those comments at all until I saw them on this thread.
They had very little coverage in national media, and I would say minimal impact on anyone's voting intentions

Which is a point in itself that it wasn't considered newsworthy.

[Snapchap]

I said he might have a point regarding the Provo 'campaign" in the 26....murders, bank robberies, kidnappings,extortion....
Now go away and gave a good sh1te for yourself.

I said he might have a point regarding the Provo 'campaign" in the 26....murders, bank robberies, kidnappings,extortion....
Now go away and gave a good sh1te for yourself.

As opposed to the Old IRA who never carried out murders or robberies etc etc.

Anyway, as I'm sure you well know, Micheal wasn't talking about the IRA activities in the 26. He was talking about the troubles in their entirety. Nor were his remarks down to the "cut and thrust of debate with Mary Lou" as you previously surmised, but in a one-to-one sit-down interview. He simply took exception to the interviewer noting that there were atrocities committed by both sides, and had the brass f**king neck to do so just seconds after accusing SF of trying to rewrite the history of the troubles. There is no excusing his absolutely shameful remarks no matter how hard you might try to obfuscate and misrepresent them.

[Truthsayer]

I said he might have a point regarding the Provo 'campaign" in the 26....murders, bank robberies, kidnappings,extortion....
Now go away and gave a good sh1te for yourself.

Shooting gardaí doesn't go down well with the average person. Maybe there's a mistaken assumption that the gardaí are viewed similarly to the RUC were.

That's a fair point. As does the shooting of civilians by the state. And trying to imply that there was only one side in the troubles should be enough to end a politicians career in the south but it doesn't seem to be the case. 

Yes, a ridiculous statement, I can't think of any reason or justification for it.
What I will say is that I hadn't heard of those comments at all until I saw them on this thread.
They had very little coverage in national media, and I would say minimal impact on anyone's voting intentions

Which is a point in itself that it wasn't considered newsworthy.

I said he might have a point regarding the Provo 'campaign" in the 26....murders, bank robberies, kidnappings,extortion....
Now go away and gave a good sh1te for yourself.

Shooting gardaí doesn't go down well with the average person. Maybe there's a mistaken assumption that the gardaí are viewed similarly to the RUC were.

That's a fair point. As does the shooting of civilians by the state. And trying to imply that there was only one side in the troubles should be enough to end a politicians career in the south but it doesn't seem to be the case. 

Yes, a ridiculous statement, I can't think of any reason or justification for it.
What I will say is that I hadn't heard of those comments at all until I saw them on this thread.
They had very little coverage in national media, and I would say minimal impact on anyone's voting intentions

I said he might have a point regarding the Provo 'campaign" in the 26....murders, bank robberies, kidnappings,extortion....
Now go away and gave a good sh1te for yourself.

Shooting gardaí doesn't go down well with the average person. Maybe there's a mistaken assumption that the gardaí are viewed similarly to the RUC were.

That's a fair point. As does the shooting of civilians by the state. And trying to imply that there was only one side in the troubles should be enough to end a politicians career in the south but it doesn't seem to be the case. 

Yes, a ridiculous statement, I can't think of any reason or justification for it.
What I will say is that I hadn't heard of those comments at all until I saw them on this thread.
They had very little coverage in national media, and I would say minimal impact on anyone's voting intentions

Obviously not, as 'national media' be on the same page as Martin. There was outrage among northern nationalists tho RTÉ was hardly going to follow that up. Unionists and loyalists  probably delighted.