General Election 2024

[Armagh18]

SF were hammered rightly or wrongly among the working classes for their immigration stance. Strangely though the blame was put at their door despite it being FFG that are filling towns with immigrants.

[Rossfan]

I'd say if there is a UI then the likes of FF and FG will fall way behind a SF count

Why? The only distinct thing about SF will have ended. FF and FG will suit Ireland as well then are they do now and if people people want a left option there will be real ones.

Got it in one lad.
There may have to be some kind of power sharing anyway.

But back to the weekend just gone it seems SF really won this election per their spokespeople here.
Who were missing for a few days!?)

[Armagh18]

SF will be disappointed if you look at it from pov of just after the last GE, looked certain that they'd be the main party this time, probably doesn't help that most of their voting base is in Oz/Canada/Middle East.

[Rossfan]

SF were hammered rightly or wrongly among the working classes for their immigration stance. Strangely though the blame was put at their door despite it being FFG that are filling towns with immigrants.

They lost left of centre votes with their anti refugee manifesto.
Why do you think Lab/SDs nearly doubled their seats.

[AustinPowers]

Absolutely. About two months ago it looked like they were completely finished and look what happened in that election. This board was just about how they were dropping and they were gone - that , for me , was a big result for them.

On Twitter maybe, and that's not the real world.

You seriously thought SF were finished over the head of an unknown former press officer being suspended by SF (rightly) & a Senator from the North being a creep ?

You may have had unionists up here creaming themselves, it was never going to move the needle with voters in the south

I don't know anyone who thought they were finished, but the conventional wisom was that the election couldn't have come at a worse time for them. I recall reading an Irish Times column which surmised that the election was called earlier than initially planned, purely to take advantage of SF's problems at the time. If you're suggesting that the abolute feeding frenzy on SF in the weeks before the election was entirely unrelated to said election, then I've a bridge to Scotland to sell you.

Finally, some movement on this! 

But yes , it was so  obvious why the election  was called when it was. 

[imtommygunn]

Absolutely. About two months ago it looked like they were completely finished and look what happened in that election. This board was just about how they were dropping and they were gone - that , for me , was a big result for them.

On Twitter maybe, and that's not the real world.

You seriously thought SF were finished over the head of an unknown former press officer being suspended by SF (rightly) & a Senator from the North being a creep ?

You may have had unionists up here creaming themselves, it was never going to move the needle with voters in the south

I never thought they were finished but some did and the polls were only trending downwards. Also I wouldn't have said that specific incident but if you were to believe some people on this board in particular it would have been their stance on immigration that was the thing that had sent them spiralling downwards and that specific incident was just another kick.

Also the media tell you what they want to tell you. The media in the south is anti SF and will paint this as horrendous for them because they didn't get into power. For me this election was a decent one for SF. Ultimately they will have wanted power yes but it was still a strong one for them.

I say none of this as a pro SF person 

[Deerstalker]

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2024/12/03/where-to-now-for-sinn-fein-there-is-great-disappointment-but-the-blame-internally-is-not-being-put-on-mary-lou-mcdonald/


Where to now for Sinn Féin: 'There is great disappointment, but the blame internally is not being put on Mary Lou McDonald'





Sinn Féin held its first general election postmortem meeting on Monday, as the final seats were filled in a handful of remaining constituencies around the country.

The party has emerged with 39 seats, just two more than its 2020 haul. While advisers agreed a strategy on Monday to reach out to the Social Democrats and Labour, there was acceptance behind closed doors that another five-year spell beckons on the Opposition benches. At different levels of the party, there is intense disappointment and dismay that the promised land of government buildings has not materialised.

Naturally, this has given way to murmurings about the leadership of Mary Lou McDonald. Those conversations began after the party's poor performance in this summer's local elections. As the final results came in on Monday, some party members were already musing on who could potentially replace McDonald, with the names mentioned being: Matt Carthy, Pearse Doherty and Rose Conway-Walsh.

At the same time, however, there is a huge swell of support within the ranks for McDonald.

We are at our best when the press are kicking us," said one Sinn Féin source on Monday. They added: "There were lessons to be learned from what happened in the local elections, and they have been learned." The school of thought here is that the party tightened up its messaging and policies on key issues such as migration, health and housing.

Another source also admitted there is great disappointment across the Sinn Féin organisation, but that the blame internally is not being put on Mary Lou McDonald.

We really hoped that we would be able to do it this time. But the campaign was not a disaster. A lot of us felt that we were seeing Mary Lou McDonald back to herself, back to doing what she does best.

"There was better cohesion in this campaign compared to the local elections. There was more support for candidates, better structures in place, help with things like social media. And by the end of the campaign there was a feeling that Mary Lou McDonald was back, that she was back in charge. There were people who had been whispering in different rooms about her, but they've gone quiet now."


Some Sinn Féin members also told The Irish Times that they were unclear on whether Mary Lou McDonald wanted to continue as party leader, even if the organisation was rallying around her. But a senior Sinn Féin source said on Monday that it was absolutely her intention to continue in the role.

On Wednesday, the new and old members of the parliamentary party will meet and give their views about what should happen next. There appears to be a growing consensus that Sinn Féin needs to take an entirely different approach to the one the party has taken for the last four-and-a-half years in Opposition.

We will knuckle down now and we will build again. We need to figure out what the message should be for the next few years. We'll review every aspect of this election and look to the next one," said one member.

Another well-known member said there was a feeling that the party would adopt a "more aggressive stance" over the coming years and operate as an opposition party rather than a government-in-waiting.

There is also expected to be a big programme of work around re-establishing Sinn Féin support in working-class areas and communities where the party lost out this summer, which will involve boots-on-the-ground community work.

Publicly, at least, the party was giving away very little on Monday.

"Our new increased parliamentary team will meet on Wednesday in Leinster House with Mary Lou McDonald and we will assess where we take things at that stage," said housing spokesman Eoin Ó Broin said.

After Sinn Féin's overtures to Labour and the Social Democrats, they may also reach out to Independents – but few, if anyone, expects anything to come of these discussions and the initial reactions from within Labour and the Social Democrats were cool last night.

With an apparent dead end looming for Sinn Féin's path to power, what comes next is quite uncertain.

[gallsman]

For me this election was a decent one for SF. Ultimately they will have wanted power yes but it was still a strong one for them.

I say none of this as a pro SF person 

It depends on what your point of reference is. If looking at polls in the months before the election, then yes, they've done excellently and have recovered a lot of lost ground. They've also picked up two more seats than last time, but given the increase in the size of the Dail, that shouldn't be overstated.

If your point of reference is the previous election, then it would be reasonable to consider that there might be disappointment, or a sense of underperformance. Their first preference share dropped significantly, and they've failed to make inroads against the incumbent, inept, incompetent administration.

Can spin it either way. The reality of it is somewhere in the middle.

[imtommygunn]

Exactly - you could spin it whatever way you wanted.

[Cavan19]

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2024/12/03/where-to-now-for-sinn-fein-there-is-great-disappointment-but-the-blame-internally-is-not-being-put-on-mary-lou-mcdonald/


Another well-known member said there was a feeling that the party would adopt a "more aggressive stance" over the coming years and operate as an opposition party rather than a government-in-waiting.

Does that mean Pearse Doherty is going to shout louder?

[weareros]

Looks like Social Democrats and Labour are leery of being subsumed by Sinn Fein in opposition. Both would have ambitions to be the largest left party in 5 years. One of the two may go into government but if in opposition their challenge will be to stand out as strong opposition as their own distinct party, versus Sinn Fein's eagerness to keep them as two smaller parties in a SF led left coalition in 5 years. That will be interesting to watch too. They were coy enough with Mary Lou's overtures.

Labour and SD's should be merged. Madness and egoes that they're not.

They'd have over 20 seats. Mayb more they they merged an put a plan in place.

I'd say FFG will look to solid, reliable Independent TD's, who they can trust. They'll give them a few crumbs from the table to keep them sweet.

A government will hardly be formed before Christmas. Looking at the transfers, serious high rates of transfers between the FFG party. But they gave very little to The Green Party. There's a moral to the story there!

The Green Party was treated terribly by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, and by the voter. All 3 big parties have also scored terribly on climate policies. The Social Democrats at least want to end the nitrates derogation which if extended again will result in the continued pollution of Ireland's waterways by the over spreading of slurry and artificial fertilisers. I have sympathy for farmers coming from a farming background, but the madness needs to stop. We are in a dangerous situation now with the climate policies of the majority of parties and independent TDs in the Dail. The EU might come down hard on us, but that will lead to a lot of Brexit type of sentiment in rural Ireland.

[Armagh18]

Looks like Social Democrats and Labour are leery of being subsumed by Sinn Fein in opposition. Both would have ambitions to be the largest left party in 5 years. One of the two may go into government but if in opposition their challenge will be to stand out as strong opposition as their own distinct party, versus Sinn Fein's eagerness to keep them as two smaller parties in a SF led left coalition in 5 years. That will be interesting to watch too. They were coy enough with Mary Lou's overtures.

Labour and SD's should be merged. Madness and egoes that they're not.

They'd have over 20 seats. Mayb more they they merged an put a plan in place.

I'd say FFG will look to solid, reliable Independent TD's, who they can trust. They'll give them a few crumbs from the table to keep them sweet.

A government will hardly be formed before Christmas. Looking at the transfers, serious high rates of transfers between the FFG party. But they gave very little to The Green Party. There's a moral to the story there!

The Green Party was treated terribly by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, and by the voter. All 3 big parties have also scored terribly on climate policies. The Social Democrats at least want to end the nitrates derogation which if extended again will result in the continued pollution of Ireland's waterways by the over spreading of slurry and artificial fertilisers. I have sympathy for farmers coming from a farming background, but the madness needs to stop. We are in a dangerous situation now with the climate policies of the majority of parties and independent TDs in the Dail. The EU might come down hard on us, but that will lead to a lot of Brexit type of sentiment in rural Ireland.

[/b] Rightly so. I'm not anti-EU but they can f**k right off trying to interfere like that.

[Rossfan]

Keep sending us the cheques but don't be going on about poisoning water, fish, destroying trees etc.

[trueblue1234]

I'd say if there is a UI then the likes of FF and FG will fall way behind a SF count

Why? The only distinct thing about SF will have ended. FF and FG will suit Ireland as well then are they do now and if people people want a left option there will be real ones.

Got it in one lad.
There may have to be some kind of power sharing anyway.

But back to the weekend just gone it seems SF really won this election per their spokespeople here.
Who were missing for a few days!?)

Absolutely. About two months ago it looked like they were completely finished and look what happened in that election. This board was just about how they were dropping and they were gone - that , for me , was a big result for them.

On Twitter maybe, and that's not the real world.

You seriously thought SF were finished over the head of an unknown former press officer being suspended by SF (rightly) & a Senator from the North being a creep ?

You may have had unionists up here creaming themselves, it was never going to move the needle with voters in the south

I never thought they were finished but some did and the polls were only trending downwards. Also I wouldn't have said that specific incident but if you were to believe some people on this board in particular it would have been their stance on immigration that was the thing that had sent them spiralling downwards and that specific incident was just another kick.

Also the media tell you what they want to tell you. The media in the south is anti SF and will paint this as horrendous for them because they didn't get into power. For me this election was a decent one for SF. Ultimately they will have wanted power yes but it was still a strong one for them.

I say none of this as a pro SF person 

This is it. The reality is it was neither success nor complete failure. For every SFer who'll paint it as a success, you'll have the RossFan's trying to say the opposite and ignoring they are the 2nd largest party.
MLMcD did well in the last few weeks but she grates on me in general and I think a change might be good for the party. Whether that happens or not....

[imtommygunn]

Yeah I wouldn't be a fan at all tbh. I think a party like SF who have a clear goal of uniting Ireland need someone passionate about that cause rather than someone who is in reality a careerist.

I think they have done well enough that a leadership change is unlikely.