A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.

Started by winghalfback, May 27, 2015, 03:16:23 PM

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Rossfan

It seems ye're education system needs reform anyway.
And of course grown up politicians and economic improvement would help..... 
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

Snapchap

Quote from: bennydorano on December 23, 2024, 10:21:10 AMInteresting article

https://www.irishnews.com/news/politics/ending-academic-selection-in-northern-ireland-is-key-to-a-united-ireland-says-economist-ZRFGCWK7FNAIFOJITQG4FTYDQE/

Personally would have thought it would have been a long way down a list of priorities. Interesting to see he also thinks ROI would currently vote no in a unity poll (as do I).

John Fitzgerald? Garret's son? The man is essentially FG's in-house economist who is wheeled out every now and again to try dampen down any talk of reunification or border-polls. The Peter Shirlow of the 26 counties. So accomplished an actual economist is John that he gave an upbeat predicition for the state of the ecnonomy in May 2008, one month into the economic crash.

weareros

Quote from: JPGJOHNNYG on December 23, 2024, 10:44:12 AM
Quote from: bennydorano on December 23, 2024, 10:21:10 AMInteresting article

https://www.irishnews.com/news/politics/ending-academic-selection-in-northern-ireland-is-key-to-a-united-ireland-says-economist-ZRFGCWK7FNAIFOJITQG4FTYDQE/

Personally would have thought it would have been a long way down a list of priorities. Interesting to see he also thinks ROI would currently vote no in a unity poll (as do I).

The Irish news seems to love to post anything that dampens down unity. Fitzgerald has his opinion and runs with it. Others have a different opinion and that's healthy. I do wonder about the Irish news though and it's overall lack of interest in the unity project which seems very strange considering their market. Anyway expect another Shirlow Liverpool poll soon showing support for UI at 30% FFS. The bel tel seems more nationalist friendly these days.

Enjoyed their article on Sammy Wilson protesting British spuds.

https://www.irishnews.com/news/northern-ireland/dup-mp-sammy-wilson-joins-protest-against-movement-of-goods-from-britain-to-northern-ireland-BBQIFGROL5EVBBLSJ36LHP7ARA/

Premier Emperor

Quote from: Snapchap on December 23, 2024, 11:39:19 AM
Quote from: bennydorano on December 23, 2024, 10:21:10 AMInteresting article

https://www.irishnews.com/news/politics/ending-academic-selection-in-northern-ireland-is-key-to-a-united-ireland-says-economist-ZRFGCWK7FNAIFOJITQG4FTYDQE/

Personally would have thought it would have been a long way down a list of priorities. Interesting to see he also thinks ROI would currently vote no in a unity poll (as do I).

John Fitzgerald? Garret's son? The man is essentially FG's in-house economist who is wheeled out every now and again to try dampen down any talk of reunification or border-polls. The Peter Shirlow of the 26 counties. So accomplished an actual economist is John that he gave an upbeat predicition for the state of the ecnonomy in May 2008, one month into the economic crash.

The Fitzgerald family wish they were born in Buckingham instead of Ballsbridge.

armaghniac

Quote from: Snapchap on December 23, 2024, 11:39:19 AM
Quote from: bennydorano on December 23, 2024, 10:21:10 AMInteresting article

https://www.irishnews.com/news/politics/ending-academic-selection-in-northern-ireland-is-key-to-a-united-ireland-says-economist-ZRFGCWK7FNAIFOJITQG4FTYDQE/

Personally would have thought it would have been a long way down a list of priorities. Interesting to see he also thinks ROI would currently vote no in a unity poll (as do I).

John Fitzgerald? Garret's son? The man is essentially FG's in-house economist who is wheeled out every now and again to try dampen down any talk of reunification or border-polls. The Peter Shirlow of the 26 counties. So accomplished an actual economist is John that he gave an upbeat predicition for the state of the ecnonomy in May 2008, one month into the economic crash.

It is easy to engage in ad hominem attacks, but the points he raises will have to be effectively countered if any debate on a UI does start.
The last sentence in this article has a degree of truth "So Northern Ireland has to reform itself, rather than wait to be reformed by the people of the Republic". When both the DUP and SF vote against taking action to stop pollution in Lough Neagh then you have to wonder if people actually want a better NI.
MAGA Make Armagh Great Again

weareros

Quote from: armaghniac on December 23, 2024, 05:09:48 PM
Quote from: Snapchap on December 23, 2024, 11:39:19 AM
Quote from: bennydorano on December 23, 2024, 10:21:10 AMInteresting article

https://www.irishnews.com/news/politics/ending-academic-selection-in-northern-ireland-is-key-to-a-united-ireland-says-economist-ZRFGCWK7FNAIFOJITQG4FTYDQE/

Personally would have thought it would have been a long way down a list of priorities. Interesting to see he also thinks ROI would currently vote no in a unity poll (as do I).

John Fitzgerald? Garret's son? The man is essentially FG's in-house economist who is wheeled out every now and again to try dampen down any talk of reunification or border-polls. The Peter Shirlow of the 26 counties. So accomplished an actual economist is John that he gave an upbeat predicition for the state of the ecnonomy in May 2008, one month into the economic crash.

It is easy to engage in ad hominem attacks, but the points he raises will have to be effectively countered if any debate on a UI does start.
The last sentence in this article has a degree of truth "So Northern Ireland has to reform itself, rather than wait to be reformed by the people of the Republic". When both the DUP and SF vote against taking action to stop pollution in Lough Neagh then you have to wonder if people actually want a better NI.

Indeed when it comes to environment, climate, farming in North, Sinn Fein act like a right wing rural party. They'd make a few rural independents blush. They even voted along with the DUP against a fox hunting ban - despite southern Sinn Fein policy being anti-fox hunting. When called on it sure Stormont is a glorified county council with no real power. Power to do plenty of damage.

armaghniac

Quote from: weareros on December 23, 2024, 07:32:31 PMIndeed when it comes to environment, climate, farming in North, Sinn Fein act like a right wing rural party. They'd make a few rural independents blush. They even voted along with the DUP against a fox hunting ban - despite southern Sinn Fein policy being anti-fox hunting. When called on it sure Stormont is a glorified county council with no real power. Power to do plenty of damage.

The GFA means that there can be UI, but it will not be imposed nor will Dublin act until they are coherently asked. The problem is that the largest party in NI has no real interest in a UI if it involves saying no to anything, and has little idea of how to bring a UI about. Proposed all Ireland standards on water quality would play well with a wide range of voters, but it is out of question because some old boy in Tyrone once hid an Armalite and now has to be allowed put shite in the river.
MAGA Make Armagh Great Again

Rossfan

Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM


Rossfan

Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

weareros

LucidTalk usually release a poll via BelTel in February. Expect UI to be higher on that one. It was 39% last year. I'd expect it to hit around 42%. The Arins one makes no sense. Their panel must be poorly weighted.

armaghniac

Quote from: weareros on February 07, 2025, 02:45:38 PMLucidTalk usually release a poll via BelTel in February. Expect UI to be higher on that one. It was 39% last year. I'd expect it to hit around 42%. The Arins one makes no sense. Their panel must be poorly weighted.

These things are dependent on the question asked. Can someone reasonably agree to an immediate UI without a shred of a plan? However, the UI proportion in the ARINS poll is up 3% in each of the last two years, if that trend continued then the UI proportion would be higher than the UK vote in 4 years.

What is needed is a question about whether people want to see a plan.
MAGA Make Armagh Great Again

weareros

Full article:

Trends show rise in support for unity among Northern voters
Notable shift in balance of opinion among Northern Protestants with 44 % now in favour of holding a referendum
Since 2022, the annual ARINS/Irish Times surveys have asked representative samples of the public in the Republic of Ireland and in Northern Ireland what they think about key aspects of the debate about possible Irish unification.
They have been asked whether they think referendums should be held, and, if so, when. And, in that event, they have been asked how they would vote: for the maintenance of the union or for Irish unity, "don't know", or "would not vote".
In our latest survey from 2024, a majority of people on both sides of the border continue to favour referendums being held at some point.
In the South, 79 per cent of people think there should be a referendum, while 10 per cent are opposed. These responses have been stable over time.
The vast majority of Northern Catholics (81 per cent) continue to support holding a referendum, with just 6 per cent opposed. These results too are very similar to those reported last year.
Among Northern Protestants, however, there has been a notable shift in the balance of opinion: 44 per cent are now in favour of holding a referendum (up from 39 per cent in 2022), 37 per cent are opposed (down from 47 per cent) and 20 per cent say they "don't know" (up from 14 per cent).
In the surveys, respondents were also asked when, if ever, referendums should be held. Among Southerners and Northern Catholics, most favour holding referendums within the next 10 years (78 per cent and 79 per cent respectively). While these figures are very similar to those reported last year, there has been a decline in those favouring imminent referendums.
Among Southerners, 57 per cent of people think that referendums should be held within the next five years (down from 63 per cent in 2023), along with 55 per cent of Northern Catholics (down from 62 per cent).
Only a minority of Northern Protestants favour referendums being held at any point within a decade, but the proportion was slightly higher in 2024 (44 per cent) than in previous years (42 per cent in both 2022 and 2023).
In the South, there remains considerable stability in how people say they would vote in a referendum. A unity vote would likely pass in the South by a ratio of four to one.
Over the last three years, about two-thirds of Southerners respond that they would vote in favour of unification (64 per cent in 2024) and one in six affirm they would vote for Northern Ireland to remain in the UK (17 per cent in 2024). One in eight indicate they "don't know" how they would vote (13 per cent in 2024). The remainder declare that they would not vote (6 per cent in 2024).
Voting intentions
In Northern Ireland, however, there have been notable changes in voting intentions in a future referendum.
In 2022 the ARINS/Irish Times survey found 27 per cent in favour of unity in the North. In 2023 the figure was 30 per cent. In our latest 2024 survey 34 per cent indicate support for unity.
These are just three data points, but they suggest an increasing trend of support.
Consider the margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The increase between the 2022 estimate and the 2024 estimate is statistically significant.
As shown in the graph, the estimate of 27 per cent favouring unity in 2022 has confidence intervals (the range of reliability) of between 24 per cent and 30 per cent. By contrast, the 2024 estimate is 34 per cent, with the confidence intervals being between 31 per cent and 37 per cent.
The percentage of respondents indicating support for the Union is also lower in 2024 (48 per cent) than it was in 2022 (50 per cent).
Since 2022, in the ARINS/Irish Times surveys there has been a marked increase in the proportion of Northern Catholics who affirm that they would vote for unification (up from 55 per cent to 63 per cent) and a decrease in the proportion responding that they "don't know" (down from 21 per cent to 16 per cent).
Among Northern Protestants, more modest changes have occurred between 2022 and 2024. They continue to be overwhelmingly unionist: almost 12 times as many affirm that they would vote for Northern Ireland to remain in the UK (82 per cent) rather than to unify with the Republic of Ireland (7 per cent). They are also somewhat less likely to be undecided (down from 13 per cent to 9 per cent).
We also asked respondents if referendums were held how they would react to the two possible results.
When asked to consider an Irish unity outcome, an interesting trend appears to be developing among Protestants in Northern Ireland.
In the first ARINS/Irish Times survey in 2022, one in three (32 per cent) of Northern Protestants indicated that they would find an Irish unification outcome "almost impossible to accept". That response declined to just under one in four (23 per cent) in 2023.
The latest survey from 2024 shows a further decline. One in five (20 per cent) of Northern Protestants now say they would find referendum outcomes in favour of Irish unification almost impossible to accept. A fall from one third to one fifth over three years is significant by anyone's reckoning.
For Northern Protestants, the most common reaction to a win for Irish unity in a referendum is to respond that they "would not be happy but could live with it" (48 per cent).
But an increasing number say they would react positively rather than begrudgingly. In 2024, nearly three in 10 Protestants in Northern Ireland (29 per cent) declared that they would "happily accept" referendums endorsing Irish unity.
The continued salience of the debate about Northern Ireland's future status, and the repercussion of the Brexit controversies, have perhaps made the possibility of Irish unification less abstract, and possibly that has reduced Northern Protestants' fears of change, and contributed to their expression of greater consent were they to lose a future referendum.
Confidence
It is also possible, however, that some of them are more confident of winning a referendum in favour of the Union and are therefore less worried about losing.
Despite the restoration of powersharing government in Northern Ireland in early 2024, what is emphatically clear is that alternatives to the status quo are still being contemplated. And the alternative of Irish unity is steadily becoming less intensely unacceptable for some and more acceptable for others.
Overall, perhaps our most notable finding in our three years of surveys so far is an average annual increase in the pro-unity position in Northern Ireland of three-and-a-half percentage points, and a two-percentage point decline of support for the Union over the same period.
If this pattern were to continue over the next few years, then the competition between the Union and Irish unity would be neck and neck by 2027; and, on the same extrapolation, the pro-unity side would be four points ahead in 2028.
Extrapolating from just three years of data, however, must be accompanied with major caveats. A linear trend may not be the most plausible deduction. We must await the next rounds of the surveys to see whether trendless fluctuation describes the story better.
It is also possible that the apparent pro-unity trend may alter its pace, downward or upward. Perhaps the most important trend of all will be whether the proportion of "don't knows" continues to fall in future surveys as it has over the three held so far.
John Garry
is professor of political behaviour and director of the Democracy Unit at Queen's University Belfast.
Brendan O'Leary
is Lauder Professor and chair of political science at the University of Pennsylvania, an honorary member of the RIA, and honorary professor of political science at Queen's University Belfast
Jamie Pow
is a senior lecturer in political science at Queen's
Dawn Walsh
is an assistant professor in the school of politics and international relations, and director of the Centre for Peace and Conflict at University College Dublin

JPGJOHNNYG

It depends on how they collect their data. If it's face to face then the whole thing is a pointless exercise. We all vote with anonymity so why the f#ck would you not do the same thing with your polls cough cough not looking at you Liverpool uni or you NILT FFS. You also need to exclude the don't knows and won't vote etc from the data because at the end of the day it will be yes or no nothing else