Stormont Assembly Elections 2017

Started by give her dixie, January 13, 2017, 11:42:52 AM

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Owen Brannigan

Now we know.  Lucky that RHI became an issue to pull down the Assembly when it was never an issue for the previous year.

It looks like the pulling down of the Assembly was in part due to the inability of the ministers to agree and implement a balanced budget for 2017-18. It appears that it is better to let the British and/or the civil servants to make the unpalatable cuts to key areas hence prevarication about ILA, etc until the budget is set and implemented by civil servants and confirmed by UK government. 

Without an Executive the UK parliament will set the budget and the civil servants have been given permission to go ahead with their planned budget for 2017-18.

Education cut by 2.5%
Infrastructure cut by 1.6%
Justice down by 2%
Agriculture down by 3.7%
Economy down by 3%

Communities up by 9% to pay for welfare payment mitigation decided by Assembly
Health up by 3% (5% inflation in this sector means a cut)
Finance up by 2.9%

The number of jobs to be cut in Education will be highly significant as they are on top of major increases in employers' national insurance and pension contributions.  When inflation is added to 2.5% cash cut then it rises to close to 7%.

How will agriculture deal with such a major cut with Brexit around the corner?

At least A5, A6 and Belfast Transport Hub will continue.

Watch how Brokenshire gets the blame and then it is passed on the civil servants.  There was a fixed amount of funding and the cake has just been sliced and handed out by them.


Ronnie

Quote from: Owen Brannigan on April 23, 2017, 11:24:33 AM
UUP have stated they won't stand in Foyle, North Belfast and West Belfast.

This signals to DUP that they won't do anything to affect their de facto leader, Dodds, and will want a similar arrangement in other seats especially to protect Kinahan in South Antrim and Elliot in FST.

Interesting that they are pointing out they could run Nesbitt in South Belfast and Kennedy in Upper Bann.

There is a need for an agreed anti-Brexit candidate in North Belfast to defeat Dodds which would be a significant blow to the DUP.  No established SF or SDLP candidate would be enough to draw in the Alliance vote needed to win from Dodds.

North Belfast election results 2017
61.8%

DUP   13,309   
UUP   2,418   
PUP   2,053   17,780

AP   3,487 

SF   12,204   
SDLP   5,431   
PBP   1,559   
GP   711   
WP   248        20,153

IND   66   


North Belfast General Election results

2015   
59.20%

DUP   19,096
SF   13,770
SDLP   3,338
APNI   2,941
WP   919
IND   529   
   
2010   
56.50%

DUP   14,812
SF   12,588
SDLP   4,544
UCU-NF   2,837
APNI   1,809
IND   403
   
2005   
57.80%

DUP   13,935
SF   8,747
SDLP   4,950
UUP   2,154
APNI   438
WP   165
IND   151
   
2001   
67.20%

DUP   16,718
SF   10,331
SDLP   8,592
UUP   4,904
WP   253
IND   134


Apparently SF might not be running in one of these constituencies either.. Also heard that majority of UUP's candidates are liberal unionists.  Strong possibility that they might return an equal number to DUP.  Apparently SF are not that interested in the Westminster/Brexit tester and that Brokenshire's refusal to call a second Stormont election is going to be challenged.

Owen Brannigan

#1352

South Belfast election results 2017

SDLP   8,353   15,963
SF   7,610   
AP   7,648   
DUP   8,975   
TUV   703   
UUP   3,863   13,541
GP   4,247   
PBP   760   
WP   163   
CON   200   
LAB   531   

There are at least 13,541 votes in a unionist pact (DUP, UUP & TUV) with some more possible from Alliance but a SDLP SF pact could bring in 15,963 votes.  Again Alliance votes are unpredictable as are the GP votes. McDonnell is a vote loser as the sitting MP and his own local party probably won't canvas for him.

2015 GE Results 60% turnout

SDLP   Alasdair McDonnell                  9,560   
DUP   Jonathan Bell                          8,654   
Alliance   Paula Bradshaw                   6,711   
Sinn Féin   Máirtín Ó Muilleoir           5,402   
UUP   Rodney McCune                           3,549   
Green (NI)   Clare Bailey           2,238   
UKIP   Bob Stoker                           1,900   
NI Conservatives   Ben Manton   582   
Workers' Party   Lily Ker                      361   

2010 GE Results 57% turnout

SDLP   Alasdair McDonnell          14,026   
DUP   Jimmy Spratt                  8,100   
UCU-NF   Paula Bradshaw    5,910   
Alliance   Anna Lo                   5,114   
Green (NI)   Adam McGibbon   1,036   

Owen Brannigan

Quote from: AQMP on April 25, 2017, 02:12:09 PM
Quote from: Owen Brannigan on April 25, 2017, 02:01:47 PM
Quote from: Owen Brannigan on April 19, 2017, 04:47:10 PM
South Belfast election results 2017

SDLP   8,353   15,963
SF   7,610   
AP   7,648   
DUP   8,975   
TUV   703   
UUP   3,863   13,541
GP   4,247   
PBP   760   
WP   163   
CON   200   
LAB   531   

There are at least 13,541 votes in a unionist pact with some more possible from Alliance but a SDLP SF pact could bring in 15,963 votes.  Again Alliance votes are unpredictable as are the GP votes. Care needs to be taken not to turn this area over to a unionist pro Brexit MP but McDonnell is a vote loser as the sitting MP and his own local party despises him.

I suppose it's hard to ditch an incumbent who doesn't want to step down but I think McDonnell is toast here, mainly because he's useless.  It'll be interesting to see who the DUP run but with the SF and Greens on the up in this constituency they probably think that Bailey and O Muilleoir (if he runs) will continue to eat into Big Al's vote and that the DUP can sneak through the gap.  They'll throw the kitchen sink at this one.

The seat has been promised to Pengelly after her bitter disappointment in the Assembly election.

Ronnie

Quote from: AQMP on April 25, 2017, 09:50:23 AM
Looks like the UUP have been sold a pup by the DUP on a pact.  The DUP fancy their chances in South Belfast with or without the UUP and are also confident they can beat Kinahan in South Antrim.  Lesson for the SDLP??  SF are going to hold their 4 seats with a possibility of winning back F&ST.  What is the benefit to SF of a pact??

If SF cared about advocating their position they'd take their seats and challenge May directly.  I'm predicting that the DUP will lose 3 seats in a protest by the people of Northern Ireland.  Only Donaldson, Paisley, Wilson, Campbell and Jim Shannon will hold their seats.  Alliance and UUP will gain these.  SDLP/Sinn Fein pact will gain none.  Arlene Foster will accept blame and resign. 

seafoid

Northern Ireland really needs a stable UK to function because it is so dysfunctional itself.
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

ashman

The northern parties will be wanting deep pockets.

LeoMc

Quote from: AQMP on April 26, 2017, 12:09:41 PM
Quote from: Ronnie on April 26, 2017, 12:14:39 AM
Quote from: AQMP on April 25, 2017, 09:50:23 AM
Looks like the UUP have been sold a pup by the DUP on a pact.  The DUP fancy their chances in South Belfast with or without the UUP and are also confident they can beat Kinahan in South Antrim.  Lesson for the SDLP??  SF are going to hold their 4 seats with a possibility of winning back F&ST.  What is the benefit to SF of a pact??

If SF cared about advocating their position they'd take their seats and challenge May directly.  I'm predicting that the DUP will lose 3 seats in a protest by the people of Northern Ireland.  Only Donaldson, Paisley, Wilson, Campbell and Jim Shannon will hold their seats.  Alliance and UUP will gain these.  SDLP/Sinn Fein pact will gain none.  Arlene Foster will accept blame and resign.

You're predicting that Alliance will win North Belfast?!?! :o
East maybe!

Ronnie

Quote from: AQMP on April 26, 2017, 12:09:41 PM
Quote from: Ronnie on April 26, 2017, 12:14:39 AM
Quote from: AQMP on April 25, 2017, 09:50:23 AM
Looks like the UUP have been sold a pup by the DUP on a pact.  The DUP fancy their chances in South Belfast with or without the UUP and are also confident they can beat Kinahan in South Antrim.  Lesson for the SDLP??  SF are going to hold their 4 seats with a possibility of winning back F&ST.  What is the benefit to SF of a pact??

If SF cared about advocating their position they'd take their seats and challenge May directly.  I'm predicting that the DUP will lose 3 seats in a protest by the people of Northern Ireland.  Only Donaldson, Paisley, Wilson, Campbell and Jim Shannon will hold their seats.  Alliance and UUP will gain these.  SDLP/Sinn Fein pact will gain none.  Arlene Foster will accept blame and resign.

You're predicting that Alliance will win North Belfast?!?! :o

I'm predicting that Alliance will win at least one seat in Belfast and that Mike Nesbitt will also be elected. Any clearer?

Rois

Quote from: AQMP on April 26, 2017, 12:57:09 PM
Pro Remain pact between SDLP and SF looks dead in the water.
Ah ffs.  I'm voting in North Belfast, would have loved to see old Nigel get the boot. 

Ronnie

Quote from: AQMP on April 26, 2017, 12:56:17 PM
Quote from: Ronnie on April 26, 2017, 12:48:24 PM
Quote from: AQMP on April 26, 2017, 12:09:41 PM
Quote from: Ronnie on April 26, 2017, 12:14:39 AM
Quote from: AQMP on April 25, 2017, 09:50:23 AM
Looks like the UUP have been sold a pup by the DUP on a pact.  The DUP fancy their chances in South Belfast with or without the UUP and are also confident they can beat Kinahan in South Antrim.  Lesson for the SDLP??  SF are going to hold their 4 seats with a possibility of winning back F&ST.  What is the benefit to SF of a pact??

Whoever the UUP/Alliance pact choose.  Ford/Nesbitt
If SF cared about advocating their position they'd take their seats and challenge May directly.  I'm predicting that the DUP will lose 3 seats in a protest by the people of Northern Ireland.  Only Donaldson, Paisley, Wilson, Campbell and Jim Shannon will hold their seats.  Alliance and UUP will gain these.  SDLP/Sinn Fein pact will gain none.  Arlene Foster will accept blame and resign.

You're predicting that Alliance will win North Belfast?!?! :o

I'm predicting that Alliance will win at least one seat in Belfast and that Mike Nesbitt will also be elected. Any clearer?

You seem to predict that Dodds will not be elected, as he doesn't appear in your list of certain DUP MPs.  You also say that the (now doomed) SF/SDLP pact wouldn't gain any seats, so I'm simply asking who beats Dodds in Nth Belfast?

Ronnie

Quote from: AQMP on April 26, 2017, 01:30:47 PM
Quote from: Ronnie on April 26, 2017, 01:07:26 PM
Quote from: AQMP on April 26, 2017, 12:56:17 PM
Quote from: Ronnie on April 26, 2017, 12:48:24 PM
Quote from: AQMP on April 26, 2017, 12:09:41 PM
Quote from: Ronnie on April 26, 2017, 12:14:39 AM
Quote from: AQMP on April 25, 2017, 09:50:23 AM
Looks like the UUP have been sold a pup by the DUP on a pact.  The DUP fancy their chances in South Belfast with or without the UUP and are also confident they can beat Kinahan in South Antrim.  Lesson for the SDLP??  SF are going to hold their 4 seats with a possibility of winning back F&ST.  What is the benefit to SF of a pact??

Whoever the UUP/Alliance pact choose.  Ford/Nesbitt
If SF cared about advocating their position they'd take their seats and challenge May directly.  I'm predicting that the DUP will lose 3 seats in a protest by the people of Northern Ireland.  Only Donaldson, Paisley, Wilson, Campbell and Jim Shannon will hold their seats.  Alliance and UUP will gain these.  SDLP/Sinn Fein pact will gain none.  Arlene Foster will accept blame and resign.

You're predicting that Alliance will win North Belfast?!?! :o

I'm predicting that Alliance will win at least one seat in Belfast and that Mike Nesbitt will also be elected. Any clearer?

You seem to predict that Dodds will not be elected, as he doesn't appear in your list of certain DUP MPs.  You also say that the (now doomed) SF/SDLP pact wouldn't gain any seats, so I'm simply asking who beats Dodds in Nth Belfast?

The UUP have already said they won't be standing in Nth Belfast and frankly David Ford wouldn't have a cat in hell's chance.

Would that be the same price Trump was 1yr before his election?

seafoid

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/bbc-apology-and-content-takedown-over-comic-tiernans-inappropriate-arlene-foster-joke-35655492.html

Speaking about his "interest" in the DUP leader he said: "If she wasn't in politics I can see her working single handedly on a tiny little farm in south Fermanagh driving cattle up some country lane".
Then, apparently imitating Mrs Foster, he said:  "Go on you pups, you fenian ba****ds ye, go up you fenian...
"Friesian Arlene, they are called Friesian Arlene.
"I'll call them what I want,"
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

Applesisapples

SF have nothing to gain from a pact. They do like a few seats as it brings in cash. It is a better proposition for them to garner every possible vote. SF taking seats in Westminister would be as effective as the stoops, in other wards pissing against the breeze. The DUP had some sway because they would vote with May, but even that was very limited.

armaghniac

Quote from: Applesisapples on April 27, 2017, 09:45:05 AM
SF have nothing to gain from a pact. They do like a few seats as it brings in cash. It is a better proposition for them to garner every possible vote. SF taking seats in Westminister would be as effective as the stoops, in other wards pissing against the breeze. The DUP had some sway because they would vote with May, but even that was very limited.

If they define themselves as advancing themselves, then this is true. If they define themselves as doing what is good for Ireland then an anti Brexit pact has a lot going for it.  But I think we always knew which was the priority for SF.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B