The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)

[whiskeysteve]

Came within a hairs breadth of the first (official) PIG default in the last hour. The Greeks just passed their bill for the latest tranche of money and austerity by 4 votes... A ruling party deputy got the chop immediately after for voting no, leaving them with 154 of the 300 parlimentary seats.

That they came so close to default today shows that this is the very last time they will kick the can down the road.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/blog/2011/jun/29/greece-austerity-vote-demonstrations

[highorlow]

The Greeks just passed their bill for the latest tranche of money and austerity by 4 votes

It was 17 votes as far as I read?

[bcarrier]

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ff7ff5e6-a738-11e0-b6d4-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1RGOAafeV

Last week, in the absence of any cogent initiative from anyone else, France's banks – the biggest private-sector holders of Greek government bonds outside Greece – came up with a blueprint for what such a restructuring should look like.

There were three main points. There should be a target of rolling over a net 50 per cent of the €100bn or so outstanding debt due to mature by the end of 2014. There should also be an insurance scheme, collateralised with bonds issued by an authority such as the European financial stability facility. And the rolled-over bonds should pay interest at up to 8 per cent.

However, voices of dissent on the terms have grown louder in recent days. In particular, other banks marshalled for the meeting by the Institute of International Finance have begun to suggest privately that the French scheme is too obviously self-serving for the banks – with high interest rates and a low participation target.

Self serving should never be obvious.

Who holds the CDS.?

http://streetlightblog.blogspot.com/2011/06/betting-on-pigs.html

[seafoid]

Irish 10 year yield now up to 13%

God, that was quick.

Italy has broken the (unsustainable) 5% barrier. Now at 5.17%. Spain is steady around 5.65%. Spain will shortly break the bank imho if you pardon the pun.

This has been going on for nearly 3 years and there is no credible co-ordinated plan from the EU. This is why the rating agencies are savaging us. For once they are right.

Portugal got a bailout 8 weeks ago. Now Moody's have assigned put them at junk status.
What a joke. What else were the Portuguese supposed to do ?
I think you have some serious players short selling Euro bonds to make a massive profit when
the EU announces whatever it is the market wants. The rating agencies are in the same game.   

[whiskeysteve]

spain 10 year on verge of breaking 6% but big news seems to be Italy which has soared to 5.5%, i.e. they are close to being locked out of the market. i think the combinded bailout required is in the region of 2 trillion?, i.e. not happening

the arse is falling out of the US economy also with unemployment at record highs and increasing numbers of those on benefits being thrown to the wolves (benefits stopped after 99 weeks jobless). The US will crash either by hyperinflation (QE3, QE4, etc) or by facing up to reality and defaulting (national debt stands at 14 trillion dollars)

I am sorry to say it, but as the entire global economy is moving slowly towards collapse. I really do believe thousands of people will be starving in the streets of many western nations by 2013, it is not a question of social welfare being cutback but razed to the ground. I think many educated onlookers believe this in the back of their minds but cant bring themselves to say it.

[muppet]

Exactly how much Whiskey do you have Steve and where do you live?

[whiskeysteve]

Exactly how much Whiskey do you have Steve and where do you live?

Funny you should ask that Muppet but my auld boy has a big wooden box of the stuff so if there is an economic apocolypse I will be OK.

The doyens tell you to buy gold but I think i will get by bartering with my fathers whiskey.

When i'm not following the continual armageddon of Derry club football I live on the internet, not much good it does me neither.

[muppet]

Exactly how much Whiskey do you have Steve and where do you live?

Funny you should ask that Muppet but my auld boy has a big wooden box of the stuff so if there is an economic apocolypse I will be OK.

The doyens tell you to buy gold but I think i will get by bartering with my fathers whiskey.

When i'm not following the continual armageddon of Derry club football I live on the internet, not much good it does me neither.

Too late for gold now.

Put your money into Copper(s).

[whiskeysteve]

Exactly how much Whiskey do you have Steve and where do you live?

Funny you should ask that Muppet but my auld boy has a big wooden box of the stuff so if there is an economic apocolypse I will be OK.

The doyens tell you to buy gold but I think i will get by bartering with my fathers whiskey.

When i'm not following the continual armageddon of Derry club football I live on the internet, not much good it does me neither.

Too late for gold now.

Put your money into Copper(s).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6LX066DdRu8

Never gets old

[muppet]

spain 10 year on verge of breaking 6% but big news seems to be Italy which has soared to 5.5%, i.e. they are close to being locked out of the market. i think the combinded bailout required is in the region of 2 trillion?, i.e. not happening

the arse is falling out of the US economy also with unemployment at record highs and increasing numbers of those on benefits being thrown to the wolves (benefits stopped after 99 weeks jobless). The US will crash either by hyperinflation (QE3, QE4, etc) or by facing up to reality and defaulting (national debt stands at 14 trillion dollars)

I am sorry to say it, but as the entire global economy is moving slowly towards collapse. I really do believe thousands of people will be starving in the streets of many western nations by 2013, it is not a question of social welfare being cutback but razed to the ground. I think many educated onlookers believe this in the back of their minds but cant bring themselves to say it.

A dose of inflation will sort us out, whiskeysteve. The big collapse isn't going to happen this time around.

Bbbbut the prudent Germans, the ones who defaulted twice in the last century, would have their prudent savings wiped out to save the reckless PIIGS! Nein!

[muppet]

Wow!

http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/social-welfare-spend-up-15-to-208bn-last-year-512380.html

"Continuing to reflect the trend of recent years and re-affirming the Government's commitment to the welfare of all those in need of support, social welfare programme expenditure increased to €20.8bn in 2010 - an increase of 1.5% over the previous year.

As posted on another thread here is our income tax take for 2010: €11.3bn

http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/exchequerstatements/2010/analysisenddectax.pdf

We are giving out nearly twice as much social welfare as we take in as income tax. That is before the other departments such as Health, Education, Justice, Defense etc are paid for.

[armaghniac]

There is considerable attention to public pay in the 26 counties, but this is significantly less than is spent of welfare and a third of pay comes straight back into to the exchequer in income tax. If all public services, other than welfare, were abolished, it would hardly cover the deficit.

[muppet]

Ireland:

Spain:

Italy: 

3 years ago we heard 'stay out of the PIIGS'. 3 Years ago we heard the Irish Central Bank banning short selling of bank stocks. We then heard the Irish banks and the regulator say that they were fully capitalised. 3 years of the EU/ECB doing as little as possible and now we have arrived at Italy banning short selling of bank shares.

Well at least it might finally be about to pop but we probably shouldn't underestimate their ability to kick the can down the road a couple of more times. In fairness they have plenty of practice.

[Denn Forever]

In those graphs, what does the Y-axis signify?  From my reading, Ireland is in much better or worse position than Spain or Italy.  Which is it?

[seafoid]

the y axis is the yield on a 10 year bond. It is the rate the government would have to offer to get money in the market based on current prices. Ireland would have to pay over 13%.
It is also the rate mortgage holders would be paying if the ECB wasn't helping out.