The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)

[muppet]

Big question is, can Noonan change tack now and put the taxpayer before the banking system?

No

Surely though he can't blindly continue Lenihan's lunacy of shoveling money we don't have and can't repay, down a bottomless pit?

[Hardy]

I don't understand the paranoia about "foreign ownership" of the banks. Do people somehow think "we" owned the banks before this meltdown? They were owned by a variety of shareholders, most of them institutional, many of them foreign. A tiny proportion of AIB and BOI shares would have been owned by Irish individuals - that's about it. The idea that financial assets in capital markets somehow have a nationality like a football team is nonsense.

Ironically, it's only now, as a result of the whole debacle that we DO actually own the banks. As far as I'm concerned, the sooner we can sell them again to foreign or any other interests and recover some of the capital, the better. What we should have done, day one, is flogged them off to competent foreign banks who would have provided a proper banking system, something "we" haven't managed to do after three years of f**king about and pouring the people's future away.

And now we're proposing to pour another 25+ billion down the tubes. Maybe I'm not sophisticated enough to understand it, but I just don't get the proposition that the way to solve a massive, humongous, unprecedentedly mind-boggling debt problem is to borrow more money! Just to give it to a business that doesn't work and can't work. A five-year-old wouldn't suggest that.

David McWilliams gets it right again, for me:
http://www.rte.ie/news/morningireland/player.html?20110331,2934096,2934135,flash,257

[muppet]

I don't understand the paranoia about "foreign ownership" of the banks. Do people somehow think "we" owned the banks before this meltdown? They were owned by a variety of shareholders, most of them institutional, many of them foreign. A tiny proportion of AIB and BOI shares would have been owned by Irish individuals - that's about it. The idea that financial assets in capital markets somehow have a nationality like a football team is nonsense.

Ironically, it's only now, as a result of the whole debacle that we DO actually own the banks. As far as I'm concerned, the sooner we can sell them again to foreign or any other interests and recover some of the capital, the better. What we should have done, day one, is flogged them off to competent foreign banks who would have provided a proper banking system, something "we" haven't managed to do after three years of f**king about and pouring the people's future away.

And now we're proposing to pour another 25+ billion down the tubes. Maybe I'm not sophisticated enough to understand it, but I just don't get the proposition that the way to solve a massive, humongous, unprecedentedly mind-boggling debt problem is to borrow more money! Just to give it to a business that doesn't work and can't work. A five-year-old wouldn't suggest that.

David McWilliams gets it right again, for me:
http://www.rte.ie/news/morningireland/player.html?20110331,2934096,2934135,flash,257

The problem is this:

When the banks were making huge profits they were privately owned. Now that they are losing Billions they are publicly owned and we are picking up the tab for the losses. When they are finally morphed into something that can start making money again they will be sold (for a pittance compared to what we put into them) and private, almost certainly foreign, investors will again make large profits out of the Irish banking system.

[Declan]

Surely though he can't blindly continue Lenihan's lunacy of shoveling money we don't have and can't repay, down a bottomless pit?

Well I've heard nothing from him yet that indicates any different. All I've heard is renegotiate the interest rate which is bullshit really. We have un unsurmountable debt and yet all the indications are that we will make that debt bigger today by lumping more money into failed institutions.

If he stands up today and says that we will renegotiate the monies owed by offering to repay 1 million a year for 40000 years to the the ECB/IMF/German/French banks then we are not defaulting only restutructuring we may have a way out otherwise we'll just be delaying the inevitable

[muppet]

Surely though he can't blindly continue Lenihan's lunacy of shoveling money we don't have and can't repay, down a bottomless pit?

Well I've heard nothing from him yet that indicates any different. All I've heard is renegotiate the interest rate which is bullshit really. We have un unsurmountable debt and yet all the indications are that we will make that debt bigger today by lumping more money into failed institutions.

If he stands up today and says that we will renegotiate the monies owed by offering to repay 1 million a year for 40000 years to the the ECB/IMF/German/French banks then we are not defaulting only restutructuring we may have a way out otherwise we'll just be delaying the inevitable

It should be pointed out that these stress tests (which don't include Anglo btw) are part of the deal agreed during the IMF/EU Bailout. This was of course agreed by the previous Government.

However even though I voted FG but I will be disappointed if Noonan fails to change the direction of the last 3 years somewhere in the next few days. I agree with you that re-negotitation of the interest rate is small fry at this stage.

[rossie mad]

Surely though he can't blindly continue Lenihan's lunacy of shoveling money we don't have and can't repay, down a bottomless pit?

Well I've heard nothing from him yet that indicates any different. All I've heard is renegotiate the interest rate which is bullshit really. We have un unsurmountable debt and yet all the indications are that we will make that debt bigger today by lumping more money into failed institutions.

If he stands up today and says that we will renegotiate the monies owed by offering to repay 1 million a year for 40000 years to the the ECB/IMF/German/French banks then we are not defaulting only restutructuring we may have a way out otherwise we'll just be delaying the inevitable

In your opinion declan what is the inevitable?

[muppet]

Surely though he can't blindly continue Lenihan's lunacy of shoveling money we don't have and can't repay, down a bottomless pit?

Well I've heard nothing from him yet that indicates any different. All I've heard is renegotiate the interest rate which is bullshit really. We have un unsurmountable debt and yet all the indications are that we will make that debt bigger today by lumping more money into failed institutions.

If he stands up today and says that we will renegotiate the monies owed by offering to repay 1 million a year for 40000 years to the the ECB/IMF/German/French banks then we are not defaulting only restutructuring we may have a way out otherwise we'll just be delaying the inevitable

In your opinion declan what is the inevitable?

Imagine your home budget where you owe 200k, spend 50k a year and earn only 32k (tax free). Where would this end up?

For Ireland switch the 'k' for Billion.

Anyone who understands the above is as qualified as the next man to predict what comes next.

[Declan]

In your opinion declan what is the inevitable?

Some sort of default  - it's a question of whether it's on our terms or not. I just can't see any other way out.

In more good news:
Aynsley paid €974,000 in 2010

The chief executive of Anglo Irish Bank, Mike Aynsley, was paid €974,000 for 2010. His remuneration included a basic salary of €500,000 and a pension contribution of €133,000. He also received benefits of €341,000 made up of relocation expenses, travel expenses and and rent allowance.

Mr Aynsley relocated from Australia to Ireland to take up his position and his wife and family still live there. Speaking on Morning Ireland, he said he planned to remain in Ireland.

Anglo Irish Bank chairman Alan Dukes received pay of €127,000 for the year. Former chairman Donal O'Connor, who resigned from the board, in June received €114,000.

[Rossfan]

By the and of 2014 we( the Irish State) will have a debt of around € 235,000,000,000.
Banks bail out to date €46Bn , NAMA €40bn+ new stress test extra money € 30bn approx, plus normal Government deficit funding €120Bn.
The annual interest will be c. €11.5Bn.
In 2010 total Tax take was c. €33Bn and spending c.€50Bn.
So to break even in 2015  we'll need to take in about €45Bn and only spend € 34Bn on ourselves plus the Interest.

Time to bail out of the Country methinks 

[muppet]

By the and of 2014 we( the Irish State) will have a debt of around € 235,000,000,000.
Banks bail out to date €46Bn , NAMA €40bn+ new stress test extra money € 30bn approx, plus normal Government deficit funding €120Bn.
The annual interest will be c. €11.5Bn.
In 2010 total Tax take was c. €33Bn and spending c.€50Bn.
So to break even in 2015  we'll need to take in about €45Bn and only spend € 34Bn on ourselves plus the Interest.

Time to bail out of the Country methinks 

CB 'reliance' now at €153 and still rising.

http://economic-incentives.blogspot.com/2011/03/central-bank-reliance-rises-to-153.html?spref=tw

Our banks now issue bonds to themselves to pay off the bondholders. These bonds are guaranteed by the State thanks to Lenny so we now are the bondholders that we are going to have to burn.

I always liked the line: if he was made of chocolate he would eat himself. I always thought it was a paradox but it seems we will shortly prove that you can be bond issuer, bond holder and bond burnee, all at the same time.

[balladmaker]

Why does no one in power seem to be listening to the suggestions put forward by people such as David McWilliams i.e. put the banks for sale on the open market.  After 100 days, if there are no takers, then why should the state buy them by pumping endless billions into them.  Close down the banks which are fecked, move the deposits to a bank which has greater stability, and clean up the whole mess once and for all.

Lowering interest rates is only a charade to make the government look as if it has a plan.  Given the debt burdern, interest rates are becoming irrelevant.

[seafoid]

Why does no one in power seem to be listening to the suggestions put forward by people such as David McWilliams i.e. put the banks for sale on the open market.  After 100 days, if there are no takers, then why should the state buy them by pumping endless billions into them.  Close down the banks which are fecked, move the deposits to a bank which has greater stability, and clean up the whole mess once and for all.Lowering interest rates is only a charade to make the government look as if it has a plan.  Given the debt burdern, interest rates are becoming irrelevant.

Who is going to want to buy AIB ?
The bank has a huge portfolio of tracker mortgages that are loss making and that is even before talking about defaults.
As long as house prices keep falling nobody is going to want to buy the banks.

It is like trying to sell a herd of cattle when the marts are all closed due to an extended dose (coming on 3 years)  of Foot and Mouth  and nobody is buying.

Add the fact that most of the animals are sick and you the farmer owe your father in law 100K  that you borrowed to buy the stock
when prices were high and all the marts were open.

You could sell the herd for 2K in the current market via Facebook  but how are you going to repay the father in law? 
And who should bear the loss ?   
   

[Bogball XV]

Surely though he can't blindly continue Lenihan's lunacy of shoveling money we don't have and can't repay, down a bottomless pit?

Well I've heard nothing from him yet that indicates any different. All I've heard is renegotiate the interest rate which is bullshit really. We have un unsurmountable debt and yet all the indications are that we will make that debt bigger today by lumping more money into failed institutions.

If he stands up today and says that we will renegotiate the monies owed by offering to repay 1 million a year for 40000 years to the the ECB/IMF/German/French banks then we are not defaulting only restutructuring we may have a way out otherwise we'll just be delaying the inevitable

I don't think this will make the debt bigger, my understanding is that this money has already been set aside and that the 85BN IMF/EU bailout includes 35BN set aside for this round of recapitalisations?  I could be well off the mark with that though.

[Bogball XV]

You could sell the herd for 2K in the current market via Facebook  but how are you going to repay the father in law? 
And who should bear the loss ?   

If you were the golden calfcircle you would have borrowed the money to buy the cows from the father in law on a non-recourse basis therefore he'd bear the loss.  At least it'd be some payback for being made marry his daughter at gunpoint!!

[Kerry Mike]

In more good news:
Aynsley paid €974,000 in 2010

The chief executive of Anglo Irish Bank, Mike Aynsley, was paid €974,000 for 2010. His remuneration included a basic salary of €500,000 and a pension contribution of €133,000. He also received benefits of €341,000 made up of relocation expenses, travel expenses and and rent allowance.

Mr Aynsley relocated from Australia to Ireland to take up his position and his wife and family still live there. Speaking on Morning Ireland, he said he planned to remain in Ireland.

Anglo Irish Bank chairman Alan Dukes received pay of €127,000 for the year. Former chairman Donal O'Connor, who resigned from the board, in June received €114,000.

€974k and they made a loss of €17.7bn for the year !!!

Anglo Irish Bank has confirmed losses in excess of €17.5bn for last year.

The defunct bank's audited accounts have been released ahead of the publication of stress tests on other Irish banks.

They are the worst set of figures of any business in Irish corporate history.

€17.7bn is the grand total of Anglo's losses for 2010, slightly above guidance given last month.

That comprises rotten loans with no prospect of being repaid of €7.8bn and discounts forced on the bank from the transfer of its larger property loans to NAMA. The so-called haircut there is €11.5bn.

Anglo Irish is a bank in wind down tasked with managing the repayment of some €35bn of loans still on its books.

In the last few weeks, its deposit book has been transferred to Allied Irish Bank.

Thus far, it has cost the taxpayer €29.3bn in recapitalisation costs. The size of its future loan losses yet to filter through and which may lead to further injections of money is still the subject of conjecture. It still has around €35bn of loans on its books.

No more taxpayer money needed - Aynsley

Anglo's Chief Executive Mike Aynsley has said the Government has been 'incredibly helpful' during the year and said that the bank has received €29.3bn in support so far.

He added that he is confident the Irish taxpayer will not need to put any more money into the bank.

Mr Aynsley said that the problems in the banking industry are not confined to Ireland, but are affecting other peripheral countries in Europe.

The Anglo CEO said the bank had a workforce of 1,800 when it was nationalised, which was then cut to about 800.

200 staff were transferred to AIB when the bank transferred its deposits last month.

He predicted the bank will have a workforce of about 1,000 by the end of the year and added that a lot of extensive work has been done on restructuring.

It also emerged today that Mr Aynsley received a total pay package of just under €1m for 2010.

According to the bank's annual report, Mr Aynsley was paid a €500,000 salary, €341,000 in benefits and €133,000 in pension payments; amounting to €974,000 in total.

Anglo's chairman, Alan Dukes received €127,000.

Other non-executive directors, Noel Cawley and Aidan Eames received €52,000 each. Donal O'Connor was paid €114,000, Maurice Keane was paid €112,000 and Gary Kennedy received €59,000.