The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)

[seafoid]

http://www.finance.gov.ie/viewdoc.asp?DocID=6729

Minister for Finance appoints Dr. Alan Ahearne to the Central Bank Commission

The Minister for Finance, Brian Lenihan T.D., today appointed Dr. Alan Ahearne as a member of the Central Bank Commission. Dr. Ahearne's appointment is for a period of four years.

On the last day of the FF regime. Dr Ahearne was an advisor to the Minister as the economy went down the toilet.

[Bogball XV]

http://www.finance.gov.ie/viewdoc.asp?DocID=6729

Minister for Finance appoints Dr. Alan Ahearne to the Central Bank Commission

The Minister for Finance, Brian Lenihan T.D., today appointed Dr. Alan Ahearne as a member of the Central Bank Commission. Dr. Ahearne's appointment is for a period of four years.

On the last day of the FF regime. Dr Ahearne was an advisor to the Minister as the economy went down the toilet.

Standard practice.  Time was Ahearne was one of the young bloods who was on every tv programme talking about the mess that FF had made of the economy.  He was one of Lenno's first appointments iirc.  Truth is, it's maybe easier to stand outside and pontificate than try and fix the mess you've found yourself in.  It'd be interesting to hear Ahearne explain the actions of the last few years.

[ludermor]

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/nama-to-pocket-euro150m-profit-on-uk-property-deal-2571390.html
NAMA is in line for a profit of almost €150m on a property deal in central London, as the agency begins offloading some of its trophy assets in the UK market.

A property in the affluent Grosvenor Square area, near Oxford Street, is the asset at the centre of the deal.

The loan used to buy the property was originally given out by Michael Fingleton's Irish Nationwide, but was transferred to NAMA last year, making the agency the legal owner of the loan.

It is understood a UK consortium behind the property, at 20/21 Grosvenor Square, has now paid the entire loan back to NAMA, leaving the agency sitting on a major profit.

NAMA declined yesterday to comment on the details.

According to a report in the UK trade journal Estates Gazette, the consortium will pay NAMA back the entire loan Irish Nationwide originally gave out, about €290m.

However, it is understood NAMA only paid half this amount when it bought the loan from Irish Nationwide. If that is the case, it means a profit of almost €150m for NAMA.

It is estimated that 25pc of NAMA's assets are in the UK, which means it has access to assets worth €19bn there.

The UK market has recovered strongly in the past two years while the downturn here has been more severe.

As a result, NAMA is likely to do a number of deals in the UK this year as it tries to break even or make a profit by the time it is wound up in about 10 years.

Until recently, the Grosvenor Square building was the headquarters of the US Navy in Europe, but is far better known from the 1940s when it was the European headquarters of Dwight Eisenhower, supreme commander of the Allied forces.

The building is close to the US Embassy and some of the city's most upmarket restaurants, including one owned by celebrity chef Gordon Ramsay.

The prime location is likely to mean the consortium was able to pay off NAMA by doing a refinancing deal with another bank.

NAMA refused to comment on suggestions it has also won the right to a 'claw back' arrangement, where if the property is sold in future to another buyer at a higher price than NAMA was paid, it will get a share of the proceeds.

The agency is also negotiating to sell its interest in a property in Mayfair. In this case, the original loan was advanced to developer Derek Quinlan.

NAMA disclosed its latest performance last week, showing that 75pc of its loans are "non-performing", meaning they are in arrears of some kind.

However, it is planning to restructure many of these loans with developers -- the interest rates on loans will be lowered and the term of the loans extended.

As a result of this, the proportion of so-called "non performing'' loans will drop.

Development

While NAMA is selling off loans on prime property, the land and development assets it owns are likely to be kept off the market for some time.

The amount of loans the agency is taking will also fall.

This week, opposition parties said the agency would get no further loans, despite the IMF/EU insisting that those worth less than €20m should be moved into the agency.

- Emmet Oliver Deputy Business Editor

[Bogball XV]

That's sort of good news, of course since we also own Irish Nationwide it means that the taxpayer has taken a loss of the original €290M less the amount paid by NAMA, that's a loss of approx €150M, thus when balanced against the profit obtained by NAMA we've broken even.  That's before the professional fees of NAMA advisers, selling costs and bailout interest at 5.8% on the €290M etc are deducted.
Still, it's heartening that we nearly broke even on that one (which was I'd imagine one of the prime assets held by NAMA).

[seafoid]

I think we are going to see lot of movement on the banks over the next short while . It looks as thought things are going to come to a head. The ECB/CB can't keep on pumping money into them. An article in the Sindo yesterday estimated 25bn required in the latest tranche. How much after that?  The IMF deal is unworkable says Colm McCarthy.
Plus the budget deficit isn't going anywhere. 

[Declan]

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/gene-kerrigan/gene-kerrigan-kennys-good-intentions-wont-save-day-2577441.html

When will the penny drop that we are just completely beyond saving?

[muppet]

I think we are going to see lot of movement on the banks over the next short while . It looks as thought things are going to come to a head. The ECB/CB can't keep on pumping money into them. An article in the Sindo yesterday estimated 25bn required in the latest tranche. How much after that?  The IMF deal is unworkable says Colm McCarthy.
Plus the budget deficit isn't going anywhere.

I agree and this reported snubbing of Ireland, by Merkel doesn't make sense. If Sarkozy and herself simply snub us, the Eurozone could come apart. This isn't about a rate anymore, it is about how we default.

[orangeman]

I think we are going to see lot of movement on the banks over the next short while . It looks as thought things are going to come to a head. The ECB/CB can't keep on pumping money into them. An article in the Sindo yesterday estimated 25bn required in the latest tranche. How much after that?  The IMF deal is unworkable says Colm McCarthy.
Plus the budget deficit isn't going anywhere.

I agree and this reported snubbing of Ireland, by Merkel doesn't make sense. If Sarkozy and herself simply snub us, the Eurozone could come apart. This isn't about a rate anymore, it is about how we default.

[/b]


As bad as that ? We're in bigger trouble than most people appreciate.

[muppet]

I think we are going to see lot of movement on the banks over the next short while . It looks as thought things are going to come to a head. The ECB/CB can't keep on pumping money into them. An article in the Sindo yesterday estimated 25bn required in the latest tranche. How much after that?  The IMF deal is unworkable says Colm McCarthy.
Plus the budget deficit isn't going anywhere.

I agree and this reported snubbing of Ireland, by Merkel doesn't make sense. If Sarkozy and herself simply snub us, the Eurozone could come apart. This isn't about a rate anymore, it is about how we default.

[/b]


As bad as that ? We're in bigger trouble than most people appreciate.

If it is done right it might be a good thing for us.

A deal will be done though, hence the chest thumping by the main interests before they get into the room.

[seafoid]

I think we are going to see lot of movement on the banks over the next short while . It looks as thought things are going to come to a head. The ECB/CB can't keep on pumping money into them. An article in the Sindo yesterday estimated 25bn required in the latest tranche. How much after that?  The IMF deal is unworkable says Colm McCarthy.
Plus the budget deficit isn't going anywhere.

I agree and this reported snubbing of Ireland, by Merkel doesn't make sense. If Sarkozy and herself simply snub us, the Eurozone could come apart. This isn't about a rate anymore, it is about how we default.

[/b]


As bad as that ? We're in bigger trouble than most people appreciate.

If it is done right it might be a good thing for us.

A deal will be done though, hence the chest thumping by the main interests before they get into the room.

The budget deficit will have to be brought closer to zero before there is any sort of a default. Did anyone see the Sindo rich list yesterday? there is plenty of money in Ireland.  And don't forget all the assets that have been placed abroad well out of the reach of NAMA. 

[muppet]

I think we are going to see lot of movement on the banks over the next short while . It looks as thought things are going to come to a head. The ECB/CB can't keep on pumping money into them. An article in the Sindo yesterday estimated 25bn required in the latest tranche. How much after that?  The IMF deal is unworkable says Colm McCarthy.
Plus the budget deficit isn't going anywhere.

I agree and this reported snubbing of Ireland, by Merkel doesn't make sense. If Sarkozy and herself simply snub us, the Eurozone could come apart. This isn't about a rate anymore, it is about how we default.

[/b]


As bad as that ? We're in bigger trouble than most people appreciate.

If it is done right it might be a good thing for us.

A deal will be done though, hence the chest thumping by the main interests before they get into the room.

The budget deficit will have to be brought closer to zero before there is any sort of a default. Did anyone see the Sindo rich list yesterday? there is plenty of money in Ireland.  And don't forget all the assets that have been placed abroad well out of the reach of NAMA.

This will be part of the terms of the deal.

Interesting that the media now are talking a bit more freely about the possible outcomes. Under Lenihan very few were willing to go into print explaining what was happening. Kenny said in his opening speech that he is about honesty so he can hardly gag the media so soon. All of this gives the perception of things moving rapidly downhill when in fact it is just us, the public, being brought up to date finally.

[seafoid]

I would be very concerned about the effect on the average punter if the budget deficit
has to go to zero pronto.  Everything would have to be cut by 40%. 

[muppet]

I would be very concerned about the effect on the average punter if the budget deficit
has to go to zero pronto.  Everything would have to be cut by 40%.

The alternative is to go cap in hand again to the EU/IMF to fill the banking black hole. The disorderly default scenario is then brought closer and imho that is far worse.

[seafoid]

Fair enough Muppet. But if the budget deficit has to be reduced then Ireland needs a brutal tax on wealth. Did you see the Sindo's rich list yesterday? I couldn't find the Sunday tribune anywhere 

It's a national crisis and it is going to come down to a choice between the rich ponying up or ordinary punters dying because health care spending is slashed.

You would need a thorough register of all wealth held overseas and a shutdown of the whole banking system over a few days.  The Simon Wiesenthal centre could be retained on a consultancy basis.

[Hardy]

Populist shite, seafoid, with all due respect. Unfortunately, the PAYE workers, due to their (albeit dwindling) numbers, are the only sector with anywhere near the wherewithal to contribute anything significant to deficit reduction and the dependant sector, sadly likewise and for the same reasons of scale, the only ones worth targeting for hairshirt measures. Apart from the fact that "taxing the rich" wouldn't make a blip on the radar screen of debt, penalising the providers of employment and industrial investment would not only drive them out but would possibly do the same to inward investment from foreign corporations. But it would make Fintan O'Toole, Sinn Féin and the last surviving stickies ecstatic.