The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)

[muppet]

Muppet

This is a very good analysis of the FUBR state of the banks 

http://www.irisheconomy.ie/Notes/IrishEconomyNote13.pdf

This failure has many fathers. lLnihan, the managements, the DoF, the ECB, The EU

Very good analysis Seafoid, I even understand some of it. Well worth reading though for anyone ordinary Joe like myself trying to see through the lies.

Some interesting points in it.

* Monetary policy for EU zone is the responsibilty of the ECB.
* Fiscal policy is with the National authorities.
* Poor EU monetary policy led to EU money naturally going to where the growth was, unrestricted.
* Poor local fiscal policy led to the boom and bust.
* Lehman's merely showed the Irish that what they incompetently thought was a liquidity problem was actually a solvency one.
* The Guarantee was introduced to allow continued funding to maintain solvency, making a complete liar of Lenihan in just about everything he said about it. "cheapest bailout', "to get the banks lending etc".
* Before the Guarantee Irish banks were already heavily reliant on EU funding, after it they were dependent on it.
* Poor EU monetary policy and poor fiscal oversight in Ireland created the problem. Ireland's fiscal needs require it now to write down some of the debt, but EU monetary policy has trumped that requirement and wont allow it. (Irish taxpayer to pick up the tab)
* Having screwed Ireland to maintain its EU policy (thank you Brian Lenihan) the EU now want to cherry pick our fiscal policy for their own benefit (e.g. Corporate tax rate).

I am struggling to think of any foreign intervention anywhere, other than some by the United Nations, in a country that wasn't abused for the benefit of the outsiders and to the cost of the locals. That might make me sound like a little Irelander but the structure of our finances is not for our benefit anymore. It is for the benefit of foreigners, who are as responsible as FF/PD/Regulator/Central Bank/Anglo/AIB etc are but it will be to our personal cost.

Odd as it sounds Sinn Fein may be on the right track with fiscal policy. Immediately after the election we need a huge majority of the Dail behind such a move and then send a team of hard nosed negotiators along with some clever individuals to Europe. They don't have to be politicians either.

My only suggestions to send to Europe would be the likes of Morgan Kelly as an advisor and maybe a cross-party team including Noonan and maybe Ruairi Quinn among others.

[muppet]

Are we having yet another banking crisis this week and ignoring it, while the world deals with it?

http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2011/02/09/impending-crisis-in-irish-banking-sector-with-arrival-of-imfecbeu-teams/

[armaghniac]

We were warned, by some.
http://www.youtube.com/v/cxtkjZFfuZI

[Bogball XV]

We were warned, by some.
http://www.youtube.com/v/cxtkjZFfuZI

in fairness that was 2003, prices aren't that far below that yet, McWilliams was uncannily accurate though.

[seafoid]

Muppet

This is a very good analysis of the FUBR state of the banks 

http://www.irisheconomy.ie/Notes/IrishEconomyNote13.pdf

This failure has many fathers. lLnihan, the managements, the DoF, the ECB, The EU

Very good analysis Seafoid, I even understand some of it. Well worth reading though for anyone ordinary Joe like myself trying to see through the lies.

Some interesting points in it.

* Monetary policy for EU zone is the responsibilty of the ECB.
* Fiscal policy is with the National authorities.
* Poor EU monetary policy led to EU money naturally going to where the growth was, unrestricted.
* Poor local fiscal policy led to the boom and bust.
* Lehman's merely showed the Irish that what they incompetently thought was a liquidity problem was actually a solvency one.
* The Guarantee was introduced to allow continued funding to maintain solvency, making a complete liar of Lenihan in just about everything he said about it. "cheapest bailout', "to get the banks lending etc".
* Before the Guarantee Irish banks were already heavily reliant on EU funding, after it they were dependent on it.
* Poor EU monetary policy and poor fiscal oversight in Ireland created the problem. Ireland's fiscal needs require it now to write down some of the debt, but EU monetary policy has trumped that requirement and wont allow it. (Irish taxpayer to pick up the tab)
* Having screwed Ireland to maintain its EU policy (thank you Brian Lenihan) the EU now want to cherry pick our fiscal policy for their own benefit (e.g. Corporate tax rate).

I am struggling to think of any foreign intervention anywhere, other than some by the United Nations, in a country that wasn't abused for the benefit of the outsiders and to the cost of the locals. That might make me sound like a little Irelander but the structure of our finances is not for our benefit anymore. It is for the benefit of foreigners, who are as responsible as FF/PD/Regulator/Central Bank/Anglo/AIB etc are but it will be to our personal cost. Odd as it sounds Sinn Fein may be on the right track with fiscal policy. Immediately after the election we need a huge majority of the Dail behind such a move and then send a team of hard nosed negotiators along with some clever individuals to Europe. They don't have to be politicians either. My only suggestions to send to Europe would be the likes of Morgan Kelly as an advisor and maybe a cross-party team including Noonan and maybe Ruairi Quinn among others.

The behaviour of the EU at all stages has been appalling.  There was no oversight of what the Central Bank here was doing.  Sure the Irish regulator was useless as was Lenihan but the guarantee was touted around Brussels in September 08 and nobody said anything.  Asking Irish taxpayers to pony up for Bank bondholders to save French and German banks having to write down assets on their balance sheets is criminal.  By this stage the banks are FUBR.  There is no way any of them can stand independently without the guarantee. The volume of money that the ECB has pumped in to replace departing deposits is over 130bn Euro.  Ireland isn't going to make it to 2013 without defaulting. What will that mean for insurance companies and other institutions holding Irish debt? What will it mean for public service employees expecting their salaries when Ireland is cut off from all bond markets ?   

[bcarrier]

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/02/09/the-worlds-dumbest-banks/

[Bogball XV]

The behaviour of the EU at all stages has been appalling.  There was no oversight of what the Central Bank here was doing.

I think that's just another example of people refusing to take responsibility for their actions.

If the EU had tried to intervene in the ways that many poor victimised irish people seem to think they should have, there'd have been huge outcries about them going beyond their remit, about our sovereignty being eroded, about how their jealously was driving them to ruin it all for us etc etc.

Time and again the ECB told the irish govt that it was not their job to micromanage the rish economy, their remit was eurozone inflation, with growth another lesser target.

The ECB told the irish govt that there were other strategies that they should effect to control the internal money supply, proper bak regulation (and they specified that the govt should increase the reserves that banks should be required to retain), higher taxes etc, these are basic controls that every economy can use, but the irish govt, in a time of record low interest rates, asset bubbles all over the place, what do they do - oh yes, they lower personal taxes and increase govt spending, petrol on the already raging bonfire and yet we blame the EU for f**king us over??

Since Ireland makes up such a tiny percentage of that economy, what was the ECB to do?  Of course Ireland shouldn't have been in the euro in the first place and should leave now if it won't accept the inevitability of common fiscal policies, maybe we should the blame at the hands of however decided that we join the euro?

[muppet]

"We are now in the paradoxical situation where the survival of the banks is more assured that the survival of those who saved it."

Wolfgang Münchau

[muppet]

The situation just got worse.

Spain has failed to sell all of their bonds today.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-17/spanish-government-bonds-fall-as-debt-sale-falls-short-of-treasury-target.html

In other news, turns out our banks are issuing debt to themselves all guaranteed by Lenihan's Bank Guarantee. Depending on the extent that this has gone on, the bondholders that everyone wants burning may now be mainly Irish (Guaranteed by the State) banks. So we might have to burn ourselves.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2011/0217/1224290024749.html

[muppet]

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/436234b8-3ebb-11e0-834e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1EoOKF46c

You have to register to read it but registration is free.

It says we can't pay back the debt and outlines our limited options.

[muppet]

From Brian Lucey on twitter: Oh holy sweet God.

http://www.news.com.au/business/ireland-sought-libyan-bailout/story-fn7mjon9-1226013196144

Ireland sought Libyan bailout

THE Irish government attempted to secure a multi-billion euro bailout for the country's struggling banks from Colonel Moamar Ghadafi's international investment fund in December but failed because Libya dismissed it as a low-level investment.
National Treasury Management Agency representatives went to the North African state in a bid to get cash to prop up the Bank of Ireland, Allied Irish Banks or Anglo Irish Bank - the latter two of which were nationalized due to disastrous property loans - by selling an equity stake in one or more of them, according to British newspaper "The Sunday Times".
Bank of Ireland is now seeking to tap investors for STG2 billion ($2.75 billion) to stave off full nationalisation.
But negotiations crumbled after the Libyan Investment Authority, which controls more than $64 billion of assets, said the banks were too small for it to consider.
The amount of money sought by the Irish delegation was unclear, though it was believed that some advisers - who feared public outrage would be triggered by financial links to a country accused of arming the Irish Republican Army during the 1970s and 1980s - thought that any amount would be too high.

It was also understood that Libya declined to invest because of regulatory burdens that would have drawn unwanted attention to its financial activities.
Both Ghadafi and Ireland are in the process of political upheaval, though in very different forms.
Ghadafi, whose regime is being rocked by a popular revolt to the point that he is said to have lost control of several major cities in the country's east, is maintaining his calls for a bloody crackdown that reportedly killed thousands so far.
High-profile politicians and diplomats have already jumped ship amid the violence, and international condemnation has been swift and harsh.
Ireland, on the other hand, opened polling booths Friday after Prime Minister Brian Cowen announced earlier in February that his position was no longer tenable and dissolved parliament so an early election could be called.
The leader until recently of Fianna Fail, the dominant force in Irish politics since the 1930s, became the first sitting Irish prime minister not to stand for re-election - but despite his replacement as party leader by Michael Martin, Cowen admitted that his party suffered a huge defeat as voters turned out to express their dissatisfaction with the country's lingering economic malaise.
Ireland's incoming government, on track to be a Fine Gael-led coalition, is widely expected to take a much stronger stance with the country's financial institutions in an effort to jump-start the economy and restore stability, not least by trying to renegotiate an STG85 billion loan deal with the IMF and EU.


Read more: http://www.news.com.au/business/ireland-sought-libyan-bailout/story-fn7mjon9-1226013196144#ixzz1FBmgSNeb

[seafoid]

From Brian Lucey on twitter: Oh holy sweet God.

http://www.news.com.au/business/ireland-sought-libyan-bailout/story-fn7mjon9-1226013196144

Ireland sought Libyan bailout

THE Irish government attempted to secure a multi-billion euro bailout for the country's struggling banks from Colonel Moamar Ghadafi's international investment fund in December but failed because Libya dismissed it as a low-level investment.
National Treasury Management Agency representatives went to the North African state in a bid to get cash to prop up the Bank of Ireland, Allied Irish Banks or Anglo Irish Bank - the latter two of which were nationalized due to disastrous property loans - by selling an equity stake in one or more of them, according to British newspaper "The Sunday Times".
Bank of Ireland is now seeking to tap investors for STG2 billion ($2.75 billion) to stave off full nationalisation.
But negotiations crumbled after the Libyan Investment Authority, which controls more than $64 billion of assets, said the banks were too small for it to consider.
The amount of money sought by the Irish delegation was unclear, though it was believed that some advisers - who feared public outrage would be triggered by financial links to a country accused of arming the Irish Republican Army during the 1970s and 1980s - thought that any amount would be too high.

It was also understood that Libya declined to invest because of regulatory burdens that would have drawn unwanted attention to its financial activities.
Both Ghadafi and Ireland are in the process of political upheaval, though in very different forms.
Ghadafi, whose regime is being rocked by a popular revolt to the point that he is said to have lost control of several major cities in the country's east, is maintaining his calls for a bloody crackdown that reportedly killed thousands so far.
High-profile politicians and diplomats have already jumped ship amid the violence, and international condemnation has been swift and harsh.
Ireland, on the other hand, opened polling booths Friday after Prime Minister Brian Cowen announced earlier in February that his position was no longer tenable and dissolved parliament so an early election could be called.
The leader until recently of Fianna Fail, the dominant force in Irish politics since the 1930s, became the first sitting Irish prime minister not to stand for re-election - but despite his replacement as party leader by Michael Martin, Cowen admitted that his party suffered a huge defeat as voters turned out to express their dissatisfaction with the country's lingering economic malaise.
Ireland's incoming government, on track to be a Fine Gael-led coalition, is widely expected to take a much stronger stance with the country's financial institutions in an effort to jump-start the economy and restore stability, not least by trying to renegotiate an STG85 billion loan deal with the IMF and EU.


Read more: http://www.news.com.au/business/ireland-sought-libyan-bailout/story-fn7mjon9-1226013196144#ixzz1FBmgSNeb

They should just resolve the banks and get it over with. There is nobody to buy their assets.
There is nobody who wants to invest. They are dependent on the CB and ECB for day to day funding. It is all a joke at this stage.
   

[seafoid]

It just keeps on getting worse . There is no way out under the current bailout.
NAMA will be seen as the second worst decision in the history of the state after the guaranteee.
Your high prices in the shops  are necessary to keep property prices high to save the banks. What a joke.   

- http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/92c4dbc0-4111-11e0-bf62-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1FCTuCQDE

Irish election winners to face property clash

By John Murray Brown in Dublin

Published: February 25 2011 19:32 | Last updated: February 25 2011 19:32

Counting has started in Ireland's general election, with the next government facing an early test as campaign rhetoric collides with the reality of managing a precarious economy.

In an attempt to win over the shopkeeper class, both the centre-right Fine Gael party and centre-left Labour party, which are widely tipped to form a coalition government, promised to allow a reduction in rents paid on commercial property by businesses and shops – many struggling in the continuing recession.


Ireland's hard-pressed property industry is bracing itself for a fresh battle with the country's political leaders over the issue.

Analysts say a move to unpick upwards-only rental contracts will trigger further falls in capital values. They say this could undermine pension investments and alienate foreign buyers at a critical time, when the state is trying to offload billions of euros of property loans acquired as part of its bank rescue.

The repercussions are potentially serious, given Ireland's dependence on foreign investment to stimulate a recovery.

Bill Nowlan, a chartered surveyor and managing partner of a private property investment firm, gave warning of an "Armageddon in the property and banking industries".

From Monday, under legislation passed by the outgoing Fianna Fáil government, all upwards-only rent review clauses are banned in new lease agreements.

In an attempt to outflank Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Labour promised to go further by allowing existing tenants – those with lease agreements up to 30 years old – to have their terms changed and rent cut to re­flect the economic decline.

Conor Downey, a partner with Paul Hastings, the international law firm, said this could have a damaging impact on the National Asset Management Agency (Nama), set up by the government to acquire €70bn worth of impaired property loans from the banks in an effort to cleanse the sector.

Nama completed its first big transaction this month – selling an office building for €99m ($136m) to Google, the internet search company whose European headquarters are in Dublin.

John Moran, international director with Jones Lang LaSalle surveyors, reported big foreign interest in buying Nama assets. "But this move on upwards-only rents could bring that all to a standstill."

Analysis by the consultancy Investment Property Data estimated that values could fall by almost 20 per cent if immediate rent reviews were permitted on the €2.4bn worth of properties held by institutions.

For the much bigger Nama portfolio, for which the agency paid more than €30bn, any change would have huge implications for the taxpayer in reducing the recovery values that Nama could hope to achieve. The proposal may be challenged in the courts, but while the uncertainty over valuations remains, Nama – and any other Irish property owner – will find it very hard to sell assets.

[gerrykeegan]

Muppe...this is going to be painfull reading for you! 


Ireland has bright future- The Economist

Monday, 28th February 2011 08.20am



Ireland has a bright economic future after suffering a "horrendous correction", a leading international magazine has argued.

The Economist says the country is extremely well place to recover, and adds that current pessimism among the population is excessive."Ireland is not about to return to the dark days of the 1980s," the magazine says.

"Numerically, the recession has sent living standards back only to 2002 levels.

"The flexible economy will remain attractive to multinationals seeking a toehold in Europe, especially if it keeps its low corporate tax rate."

Its report says that Ireland's painful pay corrections have led to a slimmer, fitter economy.

"Unlike other European countries, Ireland is regaining competitiveness by reducing unit labour costs.

"Exports are booming and there should be a current account surplus this year for the first time in over a decade." While the domestic consumer market has remained alarmingly weak, not all of the progress made since the mid 1990s had been lost. "Not all of the Celtic Tiger gains have been squandered. An optimistic entrepreneurial spirit emerged that will not be crushed by a few years of recession. "Higher education has expanded dramatically; a generation has grown up knowing nothing but prosperity. "The country has been overcome by excessive pessimism."

[seafoid]

Gerry

Nothing is going anywhere until the banks are sorted out.
They are all dead.