The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)

[Bogball XV]

Patriotic sentiments would help offset the low interest returns and the investments would be safe and involve little risk—unlike the gambles taken by the banking gobshites who got us into this mess in the first place.

I think the key word there is 'safe', given that people are moving their savings from irish banks which are of course guaranteed by the govt, you can see the problem.

[seafoid]

Irish Times 16 April 2006

President McAleese did a good's day's work on Thursday last when she visited the town of Haslingden near Manchester, where Michael Davitt spent 20 years of his life after his family emigrated there from Mayo in 1851. This year is the 160th anniversary of Davitt's birth in 1846 and the centenary of his death in 1906. Over his 60 year life he was successively a Fenian, founder of the Land League, prime creator with Parnell of the New Departure in 1879-81 which brought together advanced nationalists, the land agitation and parliamentary struggle and in his later life a tireless parliamentary reformer, labour activist, internationalist, journalist and historian.

Davitt was well described by his biographer, the late Prof. T.W. Moody, in the following terms: "He shed no man's blood. He was the best loved and most trusted of all the national chiefs of his day. His work for British and Irish Labour has never been recognised. All men, especially Irishmen, have reason to honour his memory." Davitt's role was obscured in independent Ireland by his untimely death, his opposition to political violence, his break with the IRB in the early 1880s and with Parnell in 1890-1 and the lingering suspicion of his radicalism among conservative secular and clerical leaders.

He is just as well worth commemorating this year as the leaders of the 1916 Rising. President McAleese vividly recalled the hardship endured by the Davitt family when they arrived in Haslingden after being evicted from their tenant farm. This plebeian background coloured his whole life and attitudes, from the time he lost his arm in a cotton mill at the age of 11, through his enthusiastic self-education in his teenage years, his involvement in the Fenian movement during the 1860s, his imprisonment on arms charges in the 1870s, to his remarkable involvement in the Land League agitation from 1879. The techniques of social struggle he helped invent then - rent strikes, passive resistance, the "boycott" of landlords and their agents, social ostracism - became part of the repertoire of social change throughout the world over the next century, influencing Gandhi and many others.

Davitt wanted to see the famous Land League slogan - "The land of Ireland for the people of Ireland" - expressed through land nationalisation, not peasant proprietorship. That was not to be, as he soon realised. His very success guaranteed that the subsequent national revolutionary movement initiated in 1916 took place within a framework of social conservatism laid down by the land revolution of the previous generation. This historical irony should not obscure Davitt's enduring appeal as a towering figure in the Irish people's search for freedom

[seafoid]

Can Ff win the vote if Mattie McGrath goes against and FG and the opposition do too? 

[Capt Pat]

Didnt Cardiff get promoted for his efforts?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/dec/13/wikileaks-ireland-banks-optimistic?INTCMP=SRCH

The US was concerned as long as ago as October 2008 that Ireland did not have a grip on its crippled banks, according to a confidential cable from its Dublin embassy released by WikiLeaks.

Following a meeting with Irish regulators a few days after the government stepped in to guarantee all deposits in Irish banks at the end of September 2008, Washington's economic adviser in the Dublin embassy warned that Ireland may be "a bit optimistic" about the financial sector's prospects.

A splurge of lending to property companies before the credit crunch has left Ireland's banks on their knees and forced Dublin to accept a €85bn (£72bn) bailout from the International Monetary Fund and its European Union partners. The embattled government has forced through austerity measures to cut €15bn (£13bn) from the Irish budget deficit in the next three years to appease its rescuers.

Some €30bn (£25bn) had been ploughed into Ireland's financial system even before the IMF-EU rescue package, which provided up to another €30bn to prop up the banks. Even so, in early October 2008 Irish officials were insisting to the US embassy that they did not foresee any need for a government bailout of the banks and blamed "herd mentality" based on "rumour and innuendo" for creating the need for the blanket guarantee of deposits.

The US economic adviser was left wondering whether Dublin had a grip on the crisis after the meeting with officials from the central bank of Ireland and the regulator. Remarks by one of the regulatory officials, Billy Clarke, are recorded in the cable. "Explaining the seemingly sudden pressure on Irish banks last week, he said a 'perfect storm' of external events related to the credit crisis had dried up the traditional sources of financing for financial institutions," the cable said.

"[Gordon] Barham maintained that the level of impaired assets in the system stood at between 0.5 and 0.8% and these are mostly confined to loans to commercial property developers. When pressed, Barham said the media had exaggerated the level of problem assets and those that existed could be managed."

Kevin Cardiff, secretary general at Ireland's department of finance, echoed the regulator's views. "[Cardiff] pointed out that auditors contracted by his department to look at the books of at least two of the institutions under pressure came away with a 'favourable impression of the loan books'," the cable said. "While he admitted that the amount of 'speculative loans or those that are not currently product is not insignificant', he stressed that all involved in putting together the package were confident that government would not be forced to bail out the banks."

Cardiff had added: "The genesis of this [the deposit guarantee] was classic 'herd mentality' based mostly on rumour and innuendo about Irish banks rather than any hard facts."

The US adviser concludes that the Irish authorities will have their "work cut out" to rebuild the financial sector. "Against the background of the steep slump in the property market and anecdotal evidence we have picked up, it may be that government officials are being a bit optimistic in their assessment of the level impaired assets. It begs the question: if the level of impaired assets is not a problem, why the sudden pressure on Irish banks?"

I have seen the phrase used before, a perfect strom of external factors caused the Irish economy to crash. This is just not true. It was a perfect storm of internal factors that caused the Irish economy to crash. Bertie, Ahern, Charlie McCreevy, Mary Harney and the PDs, Sean Fitzpatrick, Brian Cowan, Anglo Iriash Bank, McNamara, O'Carroll, Sean Dunne and all the other developers, Bank of Ireland, Allied Irish Bank. The golden circles, the club houses, the demented Ahern who used the country and the political system to get elected and play a game of I'm king of the castle while trashing the economy.

[Bogball XV]

The US economic adviser was left wondering whether Dublin had a grip on the crisis after the meeting with officials from the central bank of Ireland and the regulator. Remarks by one of the regulatory officials, Billy Clarke, are recorded in the cable. "Explaining the seemingly sudden pressure on Irish banks last week, he said a 'perfect storm' of external events related to the credit crisis had dried up the traditional sources of financing for financial institutions," the cable said.

"[Gordon] Barham maintained that the level of impaired assets in the system stood at between 0.5 and 0.8% and these are mostly confined to loans to commercial property developers. When pressed, Barham said the media had exaggerated the level of problem assets and those that existed could be managed."

Kevin Cardiff, secretary general at Ireland's department of finance, echoed the regulator's views. "[Cardiff] pointed out that auditors contracted by his department to look at the books of at least two of the institutions under pressure came away with a 'favourable impression of the loan books'," the cable said. "While he admitted that the amount of 'speculative loans or those that are not currently product is not insignificant', he stressed that all involved in putting together the package were confident that government would not be forced to bail out the banks."

Cardiff had added: "The genesis of this [the deposit guarantee] was classic 'herd mentality' based mostly on rumour and innuendo about Irish banks rather than any hard facts."

How does this reconcile with this:

Asked whether balls had been dropped in the Department of Finance, Mr Lenihan said he "had an extraordinary cadre of hardworking individuals" working for him with a huge amount of work to deal with.

He denied they were overworked.

"The department is very conscious of the need to review itself and reform itself. The current secretary general initiated a process this year where an external consultancy group has been examining its work and compiling a report on it," he said.

He said the report was nearing completion and had identified failings which would lead to a restructuring of the department and how it carried out its work.

According to Mr Lenihan, the report identified two particular processes that had caused enormous damage to the Irish financial system. They are unsustainable financial promises given by political parties in the run-up to elections and the dominance of the social partnership process.

I don't know how much more I can listen to Lenno, I realy wish he would just quit, the sooner the better.

[seafoid]

I agree, Bogball.  Lenihan has to go. But so too do the Department of finance muppets. 

[Fear ón Srath Bán]

I don't know how much more I can listen to Lenno, I realy wish he would just quit, the sooner the better.

And his tweedledee, Kevin Cardiff.

[Bogball XV]

I don't know how much more I can listen to Lenno, I realy wish he would just quit, the sooner the better.

And his tweedledee, Kevin Cardiff.

Agree, I think departmental officials are at least as culpable as the minister.  But at least we don't have to listen them constantly pontificating utter lies and baseless rubbish.

[lynchbhoy]

thats the problem fellas, the gov may change and an equally useless maybe even a good minister of finance comes in - but the faceless bureaucrats in the dept of finance will remain, on top dollar and without having to ever break a sweat.

Obv the gov couldnt countenance a second budget with big swipes at the public sector, but the next and only measure in order to reduce costs for Ireland inc. is to cut pubic sector wages and jobs, as there are way too many people employed by public sector for the amount of work being/to be done - and they get far too much. Maybe the lower paid are not overpaid, but there are too many of them. the higher ranks have too many but they are overpaid.

I also think shifting the blame to innovators and to the ex pats etc is taking the p**s.
the probems are more local and can really drag us out of the mire if cuts effected. Starting with all higher paid public sector/semi state employees/chiefs.
imo

[Declan]

I've been in correspondence with my TDs asking them to vote against the bill today. Only one has replied and he is an FFer who is parroting the party line. I  have exchanged 4 emails with him but it's blindingly obvious that he has no grasp of the wider situation whatsoever. The insular looking and nonsensical elements of his replies to me are truly scary. He actually stated that all the decisions the government have taken since 2008 haver been right!!!

Jaysus even George Soros that nice woolly liberal said this morning that "The authorities are making at least two mistakes. One is that they are determined to avoid defaults or haircuts on currently outstanding sovereign debt for fear of provoking a banking crisis. The bondholders of insolvent banks are being protected at the expense of taxpayers. This is politically unacceptable. A new Irish government to be elected next spring is bound to repudiate the current arrangements. Markets recognise this and that is why the Irish rescue brought no relief."

I truly despair for our country

[Declan]

Name and shame all 4.

I'm in Meath East constituency Zap so the current 3 TDs are Thomas Byrne FF, Mary Wallace FF and Shane McEntee FG.
Thomas Byrne is the only one to respond

[armaghniac]

Maybe the lower paid are not overpaid, but there are too many of them. the higher ranks have too many but they are overpaid.

This is the kind of simplistic statement that everyone comes out with and which illustrates the hopeless fact free nature of the current debate. All analysis by the ESRI etc has shown that any difference between public and private was greatest at low levels. The higher levels had a much smaller pay gap and have had bigger cuts. Now at the very top they have had big pay without any of the actual responsibility for getting things done that they might have had in the private sector, but it might be better to increase their performance rather than reduce the pay.

[whiskeysteve]

Just reading from a few sources (e.g. constantin gurdgiev) that if Ireland defaults the Eurozone will default en masse.

Hence Ireland are being threatened with serious political repercussions vis a ve trade agreements etc behind the scenes if they dont play the bailout game.

What possible threats towards Ireland could have been made to the 2 Brians that the public mightn't appreciate?

Do the 2 brians and their cronies have every intention of defaulting but are holding out for someone else like Portugal to take the plunge 1st so they cannot be blamed for the wider collapse when it is triggered by someone else?

The more I follow whats happening the more it seems the US is on a runaway train toward financial collapse, so I guess a global great depression is coming this decade.

Get yerself a cabbage patch out the back and a lock a chickens. Also stock up on Ray Mears DVDs. Oh and a decent air rifle to catch game

[Declan]

What possible threats towards Ireland could have been made to the 2 Brians that the public mightn't appreciate?

None that we can't appreciate. Everyone knows the game that is being played except we have muppets who can't play 25 never mind poker

Update: Shane McEntee FG has replied to say he'll be voting against. Still can't convince Mr Byrne who has also expressed full confidence in Mr Cowen  and Mr Lenihan (but who conveniently forgot to put his party's logo on his Christmas Greeting in the local paper yesterday!)  and no reply from Ms Wallace

[Rossfan]

, but the next and only measure in order to reduce costs for Ireland inc. is to cut pubic sector wages and jobs.........

And all the public service workers who lose their jobs under the Lynchboy Recovery plan  will obviously all vanish into thin air and not need any unemployment benefits or hospitals or schools for their kids.
They will also abandon their houses and mortgagaes as they vanish into the Lynchboysphere.
Meanwhile the schools , hospitals, fire stations, Dole offices,  etc etc will be closed.

Stop borrowing mony to pay the private debts of private banks .... that will save the State € 45,000,000,000 in further borrowings while they can offer the NAMA lands and assets as payment for the €55,000,000,000 already borrowed as a result of the Banks reckless greedy stupid pyramid scheme property bubble borrowings.

Time for the Capitalist word to come up with some new innoivative ideas instead of trying to patch up the failed Reaganthatcherist neo liberal globalisation nonsense we've had to endure since 1980.