The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)

[An Gaeilgoir]

It doesn't matter to FG what is in the budget. Lucinda Creighton has said she will abstain to pass it if need be. If it looks like it might fall (not likely) I wouldn't be surprised if more abstain. FG have already accepted the 4 year plan. They have accepted the target negotiated by FF. FG and FF would make basically the same cuts as the have accepted the same targets and would be doing it in line with the ECB/EU/IMF.

I'd be more pissed at Varadkar if he said he was going to reverse some cuts. Lowry and Healy Rae are playing this game which is disgusting but not unexpected. Varadkar would only end up cutting them further the following year to get back on target anyway.

As I said before, I don't believe we'll end up paying the bank debts, so I'm only talking about the sovereign debt and our fiscal deficit.  I agree that the deficit should be eradicated as quickly as possible, what I want to see is each party telling me how they're going to tackle the deficit and allow me to vote on that. I think it's disingenious of a party to take power shortly after a draconian budget and say, nothing we can do about that, sorry.

This is the key. Labour suggesting €4.5 Billion in savings is not realistic. Even with €6 Billion most independent, not vested interest types, are predicting 'restructuring' which is an orderly default. The cuts have to come one way or another.

Anyone who commits to:

a) cutting most of the banks and their private debt free;
b) slaughtering most of the Qangos before touching any frontline PS jobs;
c) reversing any decisions to exacerbate the pensions time-bomb;

has my vote (unless it is FF).

Ah muppet, How could you cut the Quangos? What would poor Paudie O Shea do, now that he got a new job for himself on another quango?

[muppet]

If there will be 'restructuring' then Labours proposal of 4.5bn is every bit as realistic as 6bn.
The growth prediction has been ruled out by independant commentators and by the EU in the 4 year plan, that's with the 6bn cut.
Labour's commitment to a 4 year term is their problem when the targets at the end of 4 years are the same as FF/FG/IMF/EU.

On point a) would doing that result on a run on the banks leaving a 'disorderly default'?
Also, how would an orderly default work? How long would it take and do you think that is another decision that has already been made? If so, why the drama of this budget and plan?

Zap there are two issues, the Debt and the Deficit.

The banks and any default/restructuring are part of the former problem and the adjustment is to deal with the latter. Labour's solution is too little, sadly.

[Kerry Mike]

In the last few minutes, a flare was lit outside the Dáil by a group of Sinn Féin protestors objecting to the Government's Budget plan.

At the same time, another group of protestors were beating pots and pans in front of the gates of Leinster House.

I suppose it beats trying to storm the gates of government buildings, is this what Adams will bring to the table?

[Banana Man]

In the last few minutes, a flare was lit outside the Dáil by a group of Sinn Féin protestors objecting to the Government's Budget plan.

At the same time, another group of protestors were beating pots and pans in front of the gates of Leinster House.

I suppose it beats trying to storm the gates of government buildings, is this what Adams will bring to the table?

funny i must have missed Gerry storming the gates of the Dail 

[trileacman]

Jesus Christ is noonan really the man to hand over the reigns to? f**k me that quality of people in that chamber is truly truly depressing.

[Joxer]

Petrol up by 4c and Diesl by 2c from Midnight.

[mayogodhelpus@gmail.com]

Jesus Christ is noonan really the man to hand over the reigns to? f**k me that quality of people in that chamber is truly truly depressing.

FFS blame the opposition why don't you.

[Donnellys Hollow]

Michael Noonan could forge a career for himself as a stand-up comedian. He cut that clown Gogarty to ribbons!

[gallsman]

Are these literally the only comments we have so far on the budget?

Some of this is hardly what I'd call "draconian". A jobseekers allowance of €196 a week reduced by €6?? My mates in the north on £56 will be crying them all a river.

[muppet]

Tax bands and rates all reduced by 10% but the rate remains the same. This affects those just below the average industrial wage more than higher paid. Lowering social welfare and job seekers, increasing education fees etc will annoy the left parties and charities etc.

For the higher paid the cuts are more by stealth. Scrapping the PRSI ceiling is a 5% tax increase for private high earners however the levies change seem to compensate for some of this. The unspecified private pension changes will cost a lot of money and probably guarantee another financial crisis sometime in the future.

Salaries in the PS are to be capped at €250,000 but it doesn't say whether those currently earning more than that will be subject to this cap. I'd say almost certainly not.

To be honest as usual after the carefully managed build up, it all seems a tad underwhelming. Have they announced where the €4 Billion cuts (didn't they say 2:1 ratio cuts to tax?) are going to come from? Is it credible that they will achieve €6 Billion or even close? Are they not announcing some of the worst aspects to try avoid negative coverage?

The IMF/EU bailout plan is based on our economy growing. It is hard to see people, whether highly paid or otherwise, spending more next year than they spend this year.

[muppet]

This is the key. Labour suggesting €4.5 Billion in savings is not realistic. Even with €6 Billion most independent, not vested interest types, are predicting 'restructuring' which is an orderly default. The cuts have to come one way or another.

Anyone who commits to:

a) cutting most of the banks and their private debt free;
b) slaughtering most of the Qangos before touching any frontline PS jobs;
c) reversing any decisions to exacerbate the pensions time-bomb;

has my vote (unless it is FF).

If there will be 'restructuring' then Labours proposal of 4.5bn is every bit as realistic as 6bn.
The growth prediction has been ruled out by independant commentators and by the EU in the 4 year plan, that's with the 6bn cut.
Labour's commitment to a 4 year term is their problem when the targets at the end of 4 years are the same as FF/FG/IMF/EU.

On point a) would doing that result on a run on the banks leaving a 'disorderly default'?
Also, how would an orderly default work? How long would it take and do you think that is another decision that has already been made? If so, why the drama of this budget and plan?

Didn't answer this properly.

If we cut all of the bank debt free it probably would mean a run on the banks, the Irish owned banks. There are other banks operating here though. Also realistically they would create a 'Good Bank' which would be of 'systemic' importance, to keep the economy going. This is probably what they should have done in the first place which would have helped cut our losses.

'How long would it take?'. Asking the wrong man, I would have no idea.

To be fair to your point on Labour's plan Burton pointed out today that this €6 Billion 'adjustment' means a total of €21 Billion has been taken out of the economy since 2008. That is an incredible figure with €9 Billion more to come in the next 3 budgets (assuming they got their numbers right which no one believes). Like I said we should cut our losses and hit at least part of the banking system.

[muppet]

Apres match take on things:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1E5eg6cwo4U

[Hound]

Are these literally the only comments we have so far on the budget?

Some of this is hardly what I'd call "draconian". A jobseekers allowance of €196 a week reduced by €6?? My mates in the north on £56 will be crying them all a river.

Yeah, all €6 will do will take €6 per person out of the economy.

They needed to cut it in half. It'd still be miles better than the UK, but would be more likely to get lads off their arse and take jobs they don't particularly want instead of sitting at home all day watching the telly or playing their playstations.

That's tongue-in-cheek, but I would drop the dole by 50% for anyone who's on the dole for more than 1 year. I bet you'd see a lot suddenly getting jobs in month 11. Need to incentivise people to work, instead of incentivising them to sponge.

[mayogodhelpus@gmail.com]

Are these literally the only comments we have so far on the budget?

Some of this is hardly what I'd call "draconian". A jobseekers allowance of €196 a week reduced by €6?? My mates in the north on £56 will be crying them all a river.

Yeah, all €6 will do will take €6 per person out of the economy.

They needed to cut it in half. It'd still be miles better than the UK, but would be more likely to get lads off their arse and take jobs they don't particularly want instead of sitting at home all day watching the telly or playing their playstations.

That's tongue-in-cheek, but I would drop the dole by 50% for anyone who's on the dole for more than 1 year. I bet you'd see a lot suddenly getting jobs in month 11. Need to incentivise people to work, instead of incentivising them to sponge.

While I agree there is merit to the concept of your idea Hound, in the current job market that would only incentivise emigration on one end and an expanded black-market on the other.

[An Gaeilgoir]

Are these literally the only comments we have so far on the budget?

Some of this is hardly what I'd call "draconian". A jobseekers allowance of €196 a week reduced by €6?? My mates in the north on £56 will be crying them all a river.

Yeah, all €6 will do will take €6 per person out of the economy.

They needed to cut it in half. It'd still be miles better than the UK, but would be more likely to get lads off their arse and take jobs they don't particularly want instead of sitting at home all day watching the telly or playing their playstations.

That's tongue-in-cheek, but I would drop the dole by 50% for anyone who's on the dole for more than 1 year. I bet you'd see a lot suddenly getting jobs in month 11. Need to incentivise people to work, instead of incentivising them to sponge.

While I agree there is merit to the concept of your idea Hound, in the current job market that would only incentivise emigration on one end and an expanded black-market on the other.

From what i can the black market is alive and well. We have been trying to take on general operatives for a couple of jobs recently, we got one middle aged man who was sick of been at home. We were looking for 5 in total. One guy i know came for 2 days and decided that drawing the dole, doing a couple of nixers and two night's chinese deliveries was worth 850 euros a week in the hand. We are a long way from incentivises to go back to work.

Agreeing again with Muppet, this was all a bit of an anti- climax tgo be fair, our house will be down about 50 quid a week, the cost of living has come down and probably will come down further, so no big deal really.