The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)

[Zapatista]

not yet. bond yields up to 9.4% and contagion is spreading to corporate bonds in EZ land
the deal is dead.

Does that mean the Budget will fail and we will have an election?

Will the EU/IMF along with the Irish Government spread the pain across the EU rather than corner it all of in Ireland.

[turk]

Irelands woes summed up in one hilarious animation. Did this really come out of Taiwan? In any case its brilliant

http://www.businessinsider.com/irish-bailout-taiwanese-animation-2010-11

Excellent!

[seafoid]

Zapatista

The plan was supposed to bring down bond yields and supposed to bring calm and stop the fire spreading. It hasn't.
There is no point in spending the NPRF on the banks because they are bust. The EU has to come up with another cunning plan otherwise the whole sh*thouse is going to explode. 




http://notesonthefront.typepad.com/politicaleconomy/2010/11/does-anyone-else-get-this.html

November 30, 2010
Does Anyone Else Get This?
'Cause I don't. Commissioner Rehn announces on Sunday that he 'strongly' supports the Government's National Recovery Plan. He even said:
Implementing the plan will offer a "sound basis for stable, job-creating growth."
Then, on Monday, he announces he doesn't believe the growth rates contained in the Plan. In fact, he so disbelieved them that the EU Commission tacked on another year to the Maastricht target. Question: how can you strongly support a plan when you so strongly disbelieve the projections that underpin them?
And I mean strongly. Here are some comparisons between the National Recovery Plan's projections and the ones that Rehn's department came out with the day after IMF/EU bail-out deal was signed. These cover the two-year period 2011 and 2012.
•   GDP: Government: 5 percent. EU: 2.8 percent. The EU is projecting a growth rate at nearly half the Government's forecast.
•   GNP: Government: 3.5 percent. EU: 0 percent. Yes, that's right – 0 growth estimate in the domestic economy. The EU is actually measuring GNI which is the GNP plus transfers from the EU. Take away those transfers, and the GNP under the EU's forecast goes negative.
•   Consumer Spending: Government: 1 percent. EU: -2.8 percent. That's quite a turnaround.
•   Investment: Government: -0.7 percent. EU -10 percent. The Government is hoping for a rebound of 5.2 percent in 2012. The EU says investment will flat-line at 0 percent. Tomorrow has been postponed. 
•   Employment: Government: increase of 18,500. EU: decrease of 4,000. The EU projects employment creation will be half of the Government's target in 2012.
The immediate issue here is not who is right and who is wrong. Projections will change every quarter – though in Ireland's case of late they seem to be changing for the worse.
The issue here is how one can strongly believe in a plan when one strongly disagrees with what the plan will do.
All explanations are welcome.

[Fear ón Srath Bán]

This is simply sick (re the imminent austerity/impoverishment plan):

The think tank Tasc has pointed out that someone on €300,000 a year will pay an extra €1,860 in income tax. A person on €40,000 will pay exactly the same: €1,860.

[seafoid]

Check this out

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2010/1130/1224284430850.html

Support for wealth levy at 82%, research reveals

DEAGLÁN de  BRÉADÚN

TAX: THERE IS 82 per cent support for the introduction of a wealth tax, according to research commissioned by the Community Platform.

The platform is a coalition of 29 community action and other campaigning organisations. The group said a "nationally representative" sample of 1,016 respondents aged above 15 was asked by Ipsos MRBI whether the Government should impose the tax on individuals with net worth of more than €1 million and an annual income of more than €100,000.
"A total of 82 per cent of the respondents agreed the Government should introduce this tax. Interestingly, high levels of support were reflected across all age-groups, regions and social classes," the group said.
"We believe that those with significant wealth in Ireland must be required to pay their share, and the four-year plan refuses to tackle this issue head-on," said spokeswoman Anne Costello.
Among those surveyed, 85 per cent of women either agreed "strongly or slightly" with the proposition, compared to 79 per cent of men. Disagreement in the Dublin region was 17 per cent, compared to Connacht-Ulster at 8 per cent.
"In terms of social class, most likely to answer yes to the question, with 80 per cent, was the lowest social class category – 73 per cent of whom agreed strongly. It was those from the highest social class category who were more likely to strongly disagree at 21 per cent, 14 per cent of which disagreed strongly," the group said.
Community Platform's Siobhán O'Donoghue said: "We need to find ways of 'following the money', in terms of who pays, but also where actually the money and resources are located."
Financial consultant Peter Mathews said the wealth tax proposal was "a fresh way of looking at how we raise revenues . . . it's not just for the State, it's for society." Comparing the recession in Ireland to the Battle of Britain, Mr Mathews said there was "the same feeling of 'can we fight for our survival, can we assert ourselves?' The values that our parents had seem to have been eroded," he added.

[Hardy]

That's hardly surprising, seafoid. I'm surprised that eighteen percent of people earn more than €100,000, because only they would have opposed this proposal. Everyone is in favour of taxing everybody but themselves.

[seafoid]

That's hardly surprising, seafoid. I'm surprised that eighteen percent of people earn more than €100,000, because only they would have opposed this proposal. Everyone is in favour of taxing everybody but themselves.

Hardy

It is surprising that the Irish times is discussing this sort of thing. They got rid of Eddie Holt, the very good TV reviewer before the last election because he was too lefty.  And Madam was a PD .

That 18% includes the aspirational people who think they will be rich in the future. In the US that figure would be 90%.

[bcarrier]

A good summary here ...

http://www.ronanlyons.com/2010/11/30/irelands-economic-crisis-what-sort-of-hole-are-we-in-and-how-do-we-get-out/

Hardy is of course correct about tax ...collect it from the other fellow and its fine. 

The beards and the like need to realise higher tax rates do not always lead to higher tax take. People emigrate, work less or find some legitimate way to avoid it if tax is too high. IMO a property tax is inevitable and easily collected but a wealth tax has the potential to drive the people out of the country in the same way that higher corporation tax would see a multinational exodus and higher VAT/ Duties send shoppers to Newry.   

[Bogball XV]

This is simply sick (re the imminent austerity/impoverishment plan):

The think tank Tasc has pointed out that someone on €300,000 a year will pay an extra €1,860 in income tax. A person on €40,000 will pay exactly the same: €1,860.

i'm not defending the lack of a properly progressive taxation system, but you have to look at this in terms of levies and extra prsi that have been heaped on higher earners over the past 18 months too.  It would be no surprise to see both levies and prsi get another hike this time around too - it allows them to spin that they haven't increased tax rates you see.

[Bogball XV]

That's hardly surprising, seafoid. I'm surprised that eighteen percent of people earn more than €100,000, because only they would have opposed this proposal. Everyone is in favour of taxing everybody but themselves.

i think it would only apply to people with net assets greater than 1m and with an income of greater than 100k.
How would the net asset valuations be determined?

[Hardy]

That's hardly surprising, seafoid. I'm surprised that eighteen percent of people earn more than €100,000, because only they would have opposed this proposal. Everyone is in favour of taxing everybody but themselves.

i think it would only apply to people with net assets greater than 1m and with an income of greater than 100k.
How would the net asset valuations be determined?

Yes -  I missed the €1M net worth bit in skimming the post.

[Evil Genius]

That's hardly surprising, seafoid. I'm surprised that eighteen percent of people earn more than €100,000, because only they would have opposed this proposal. Everyone is in favour of taxing everybody but themselves.

Hardy

It is surprising that the Irish times is discussing this sort of thing. They got rid of Eddie Holt, the very good TV reviewer before the last election because he was too lefty.  And Madam was a PD .

That 18% includes the aspirational people who think they will be rich in the future. In the US that figure would be 90%.

Sorry for intruding on your debate with Hardy on the wider issues, but who exactly would these people in the Irish Republic be who are not presently rich, but think they will be in the future?

Holders of Lottery tickets? Rainbows-end followers? Nuclear Fission inventors?

If many of the rich cannot realistically hope to remain so in future (imo), how can the poor ever hope to become so?

Beyond that, I'm frankly amazed that nearly one-in-five still hold true to their hopes.

[Rossfan]

you have to look at this in terms of levies and extra prsi that have been heaped on higher earners over the past 18 months too.  .

Correct me if I'm wrong but doesn't PRSI stop being paid on income over €70k pr annum.??
Obviously madcap Laissez faire ( s???) capitalism has now reached the end of its latest run ( c.1980 to 2007) (Leaving Ireland in a mess just as it did in the 1840s) so it's time the "Brains"(sic) a.k.a Economists and Politicians came up with another method of getting Anglo-Euro-American Society back on the rails again.
Ireland meanwhile has to start thinking local and small and see how we get on while paying back the Reparations imposed by the EU/IMF as punishment for 13 years of McCreevyism and Bertiebuilderism.

[Fear ón Srath Bán]

Sorry for intruding on your debate with Hardy on the wider issues, but who exactly would these people in the Irish Republic be who are not presently rich, but think they will be in the future?

Holders of Lottery tickets? Rainbows-end followers? Nuclear Fission inventors?

Huh? 

I'll let you know when I've cracked Nuclear Fusion! 

[Evil Genius]

Sorry for intruding on your debate with Hardy on the wider issues, but who exactly would these people in the Irish Republic be who are not presently rich, but think they will be in the future?

Holders of Lottery tickets? Rainbows-end followers? Nuclear Fission inventors?

Huh? 

I'll let you know when I've cracked Nuclear Fusion! 

Sorry, dunno how, but I must have got the two concepts confissed...