The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)

[muppet]

So experts call what way it is going down now?

EU bailout?  IMF bailout?      Both??     increase of coporation tax?     heavy austerity? </> than Greece's??    how fucked is the thing now??     

And then what?? the mortgage and debts cripple or banks again??? Double dip??? and we need a second bailout when it goes bust a second time???

I am a complete spoofer when it comes to international finance, so I am about as qualified as the two Brians to call it.

There will be two bailouts (but we will have a new word for it like Leniloan or Lardloan) Bank and State. The State bailout definitely won't be called a bailout.
Some EU countries will contribute as individual Leniloaners but not officially as the EU (some sort of fudge to get around the Lisbon Treaty)
IMF definitely will be involved probably with the Bank Leniloan rather than the State Strategic Leniloan.

There will be announcement soon by Cowen and or Lenihan that they have secured the cheapest Leniloan in history, probably around 5% (and please God not much higher than that). They will be much denying of any denying and even more denying that a Leniloan is a bailout or any other such pejorative term. They will also announce with glee that the saving of the Corporate tax rate proves that we have maintained our sovereignty and that Lenihan wearing lederhosen is merely a personal choice.

[delboy]

The Brits would love to lop off the public sector leper that is the north and for the forseeable future will go as far as they can to cut the spongers adrift. Never will they have had as good an excuse. You would be as well acknowledging that fact as using the economic crises in the south as a vehicle to score smug political points (again).

Will be a very cold house for everyone soon.

You could make the same argument for getting rid of scotland, wales, all of the north of england and even chunks of the south of england, basically any where that isn't the south east england or london which if you want to take such a simplistic myopic view could be said to bank roll the rest of the UK.
Likewise you could say dublin should look to offload huge swathes of ireland as they are a drain on dublins wealth.

[no mo do yakamo]

Or maybe the rest of Ireland should rid itself of Dublin as its a massive drain on our resources.

[seafoid]

The British govt said they were ready to help Ireland if needed, in what form? would this be a seperate bailout to the EU? if so would it be in addition to the EU or mean the EU bailout would not then be required?

I think it would be as part of the EU assistance. "Banking analysts... say that RBS has £53bn outstanding loans in Ireland, or about 10% of its total loan book, while Lloyds has lent £31.5bn to Ireland, or 5% of its books. British taxpayers own substantial stakes in both banks."

[spanner]

The only way to find the truth in this balls-up is to have a Tribunal.

Now if only we could find an honest impartial retired Judge to front it up?

And then find some money to pay for it?

[highorlow]

Something dosn't appear right over the last few months.

Does anyone else think that the lads (FF) have something up thier sleeve?

My theory is there is an offer on the table for an Irish Bank coming from possibly China or the Middle East; one would imagine that the DOF were trying to offload a bank over the last year or so and maybe they have a conditional offer on the table.

What are all these 'high level' talks about?

The last thing the Brits or rest of Europe want is a state from outside the Eurozone taking over a bank in the Eurozone.

If my theory is correct then we are in a very strong bargaining position with the ECB / IMF etc hence the 'enforced' 'bailout'.

Also if you think about what has happened over the last week also with NAMA closing in on MacNamara, this seemed very odd.

Please excuse my ignorance on economics if the above theory appears completely mad. I just think its a kind of obvious one? Sometimes the most obvious ones are overlooked.

[Declan]

Irish Central Bank Governor Patrick Honohan has just told Rachel English on RTE's Morning Ireland that he believed Ireland would be getting a bailout, when pressed how much, he confirms it would tens of billions.
Euro rising on the announcement as well

[Zapatista]

Irish Central Bank Governor Patrick Honohan has just told Rachel English on RTE's Morning Ireland that he believed Ireland would be getting a bailout, when pressed how much, he confirms it would tens of billions.
Euro rising on the announcement as well

That should be the final straw for any man or woman. Brian Lenihan and Brian Cowen should be locked up for this. It is beyond any doubt that they have lied to the people. That's nothing new but when they sell the Country and then lie about it to save political face and remain on as administrators for the new owners, it is treason.

[seafoid]

High or Low

I wish it was true but FF have nothing. The problem is that the European central bank is funding Irish banks to the tune of over €100 billion and they have decided that enough is enough. 

[Banana Man]

listening to the news last night 7% of Britain's exports go to Ireland, 7% might not sound a lot but it was more than the combined export to China, India and 2 other nations that I can't remember. It's effectively a company realising that one of their largest customers is about to hit the wall due to a lack of cashflow. They know the demand still exists within that 'customer' for their product so it's in the Brits best interest to bail them out plus the Brits export a large amount to mainland Europe i.e. sell in euros so if the euro weakens due to the ripple affect because of the Irish distress then they get less euros for the pound.

Then factor in the exposure of RBS alone which is effectively a nationalised UK company and it is quite clear if the South goes the UK would take a serious hammering, in short the UK cannot stand by and watch the south drown, Ireland being the backdoor to England now has a new financial meaning.

[ludermor]

Irish people get pleasure in stating we always punch above our weight, i think this crisis demonstrates this ability perfectly!

[Declan]

Heres a story that encapulates a lot of our problems:

IDA's Silicon Valley dream falls flat

November 18, 2010 - 7:00am
by Declan Tierney
Not one job has been created out of an investment of €27 million by the IDA into farmland in Athenry which was earmarked to be Galway's answer to Silicon Valley.

Four years ago the IDA purchased more than 250 acres of land from Teagasc research centre in Athenry for a whopping €108,000 an acre with the intention that it would become giant sized technological park.

And despite the development by the IDA of a multi million euro access road from the M6 motorway – which was opened earlier this week – there are no indications that any jobs will be created on the massive site.

In fact since the lands were acquired by the IDA, the site has been visited by just one industrialist in the past four years.

Indeed, it has been learned by The Connacht Tribune that the lands – earmarked to create 5,000 high tech jobs – have been leased back to Teagasc for grazing and research purposes.

Galway East TD Paul Connaughton, who raised the matter with Enterprise Minister Batt O'Keeffe, said that it was "an extraordinary amount of money" to pay for agricultural land despite the fact that it was in the boom period.

"The public might have been able to stomach that amount of money being paid for land if it realised the amount of jobs that were predicted but that is not likely to happen in the foreseeable future. It was a bad buy", Deputy Connaughton said.

See full story on this week's Connacht Tribune.

Also this one as well http://www.rabodirect.ie/contactus/default.aspx - The amount of deposits that have left Irish banks is another thing that's not being spoken about

[Capt Pat]

Is all this money for the banks?

It is the wrong way to go and is just being done to save the banking aristocracy and the government and VIPs.

[Bogball XV]

Is all this money for the banks?

It is the wrong way to go and is just being done to save the banking aristocracy and the government and VIPs.

with the guarantee they're sorta indistinguishable from the state.

Ah, that night in september - there'll be a play about that

[gerrykeegan]

It will be called " Eine nacht im September"