The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)

[An Gaeilgoir]

A few personal points on the past 36 hours;

Watching Prime time last night and the performance of Joan Burton and Dick Roche, we have people in power and waiting in the wings who do not have the mental capacity,skill or knowledge  to deal with the crisis we are in or to formulate a plan to sort it out.  Fianna Fail have betrayed this country and all its peoples and history will judge them in years to come. Where are the Greens, IMPACT, SIPTU etc. over the last few days, shame on them as well as they are equally guilty in bringing us to this endgame.

The IMF and ECB arriving in is in my opinion is no harm, it will bring in a purpose, a direction and a way out of this mess. Paycuts for the public sector of up to 15%, halfing the number of Quangos, reducing the number of public service workers and yes i know there will be cuts to frontline services, but this is now the price of pur mis-managment whether we like it or not.This will bring our country in to line with our private and other public sector terms and conditions across the EU and end the cosy relationship between our government, vested interests and the unions. Not before time.

As for David Drumm, it now looks like he is going to get away with the bankruptcy, the legal advocate in the court in the states has said that Drumm was "forced" into all his actions by Anglo and now that the share value is worth 0 all his debts should now be valued at 0 as well. Anglo is trying to fight it but as stated earlier on Bloomberg it is now "likely" that the 0 figure will come to pass and Drumm will keep all his assets.

I for one am personally sad that our once fine nation has come to this, but we have to draw a line here and now and start again, hopefully going back to what was important to Irish people once, hard work ,fair pay, social equality and the greater good. Is there a strong political leader / force that might give come from this mess and restore these values again.  A new constitution would be a good start. Shame on the two Brians and the legacy they have left us.

[Banana Man]

The British govt said they were ready to help Ireland if needed, in what form? would this be a seperate bailout to the EU? if so would it be in addition to the EU or mean the EU bailout would not then be required?

[Bogball XV]

Thank God for the foreign media for telling us what was going on. Fianna Fail and RTE might as well hire Comical Ali to be their spokesman, such was the bullshit they've been spouting and peddaling all week. A disgraceful shower.

very true, they actually think that by fighthing this rearguard action they might salvage some credibility.

The whole thing just embarrasses me, from the likes of Bertie running round giving speeches about how he engineered the miracle, the excesses of the last few tiger year, the repeated lies of our politicians and now finally the rest of europe getting their payback.

In May of this year the Germans finished repaying their WW1 reparation payments, I wonder we will have our debts repaid before the end of this century?

[give her dixie]

Hitler calls Brian Cowen:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-2UTXffglw

[Billys Boots]

Cameron and the Tories have got to be thinking that this is their big chance to get rid of NI on the cheap.

[Declan]

And there's more:

Press Release 17 November 2010

The Central Bank of Ireland today published the latest data on mortgage arrears and repossessions for the period ended September 2010. The figures show that at end September 2010 there were almost 789,000 private residential mortgage accounts held in Ireland to a value of €117.4 billion. Of these 40,472 were in arrears for more than 90 days. Furthermore, the data shows that overall mortgage debt outstanding for private residential mortgages decreased by €316 million since the second quarter of 2010.
Arrears Data
As at end September 2010, 40,472 mortgage accounts, or 5.1%, were in arrears for more than 90 days of which 28,049, or 3.6% of the total mortgage accounts, were more than 180 days in arrears. In value terms, €7.8 billion was owed in relation to all accounts more than 90 days in arrears, of which €5.5 billion was owed for accounts more than 180 days in arrears. Mortgage accounts in arrears for more than 90 days increased by 11.1% since the end of June 2010.
There was an increase of 2.1% in the number of formal demands outstanding which have been issued by mortgage lenders bringing the total number outstanding to 5,576. In these cases the level of arrears amounts to €92.8 million on outstanding mortgages totalling just over €1.2 billion. There was also an increase in the level of outstanding arrears cases where court proceedings had been issued to enforce the debt/security on the mortgage. At the end of September 2010 there were 3,054 such cases which is an increase of 1% since the end of June 2010. In these cases the level of arrears amounted to €101.8 million on outstanding mortgages totalling €694 million

Latest Arrears and Repossessions Figures show 5.1% of mortgage accounts in arrears for more than 90 days .Its a ticking time bomb that needs something done.And its not just mortgages, its bank loans, car loans and finance loans. If they dont get paid the banks will take one almighty hit.

A total of 54 properties were disposed of during the quarter. This left mortgage lenders with 522 repossessed residential properties at the end of September 2010.
A lot of homes lying empty from repossession.

[Evil Genius]

In May of this year the Germans finished repaying their WW1 reparation payments, I wonder we will have our debts repaid before the end of this century?

The UK finally repaid the last of its borrowing from the USA for WWII on 31/12/2006.

That said, we could easily have repaid it earlier, except that it was originally negotiated at a very low rate (2%?). And since the UK could simultaneously lend at a higher rate, it made sense to arbitrage.

I don't know what rate will be attached to the Irish Govt's borrowing, but we can be sure it will be higher than their lending rate.

And as WWI and WWII demonstrate, creditors have long memories.

[Evil Genius]

Cameron and the Tories have got to be thinking that this is their big chance to get rid of NI on the cheap.

Explain? 

[Bogball XV]

Cameron and the Tories have got to be thinking that this is their big chance to get rid of NI on the cheap.

Explain? 

we'll help you to the tune of 8bn, but you've got to take the north with it. 

[trileacman]

Cameron and the Tories have got to be thinking that this is their big chance to get rid of NI on the cheap.

Explain? 

we'll help you to the tune of 8bn, but you've got to take the north with it.

At a running cost of 6 billion per annum. Makes the 8bn about as useful as an invite to Phillips stag do.

[trileacman]

So experts call what way it is going down now?

EU bailout?  IMF bailout?      Both??     increase of coporation tax?     heavy austerity? </> than Greece's??    how fucked is the thing now??     

And then what?? the mortgage and debts cripple or banks again??? Double dip??? and we need a second bailout when it goes bust a second time???

[Evil Genius]

A total of 54 properties were disposed of during the quarter.

Seems (encouragingly) low.

This left mortgage lenders with 522 repossessed residential properties at the end of September 2010.

Ditto.

A lot of homes lying empty from repossession.

Ah.

In any "normal" recession, when faced with mortgagees who can't/won't pay, lenders will still repossess/re-sell, even if at a loss, on the "half a loaf" basis.

However, such has been the drop in property values to date, which would be exacerbated if mortgage lenders put extra repossessed homes on the market, that the lenders can't hope to get even half their "loaf" back, merely crumbs.

Which suggests to me that they may still be drastically overvaluing their loans book and, like Mr. Micawber, are hoping that "something will turn up" before their true financial situation gets exposed.

However if the IMF/ECB arrive before then, they will have no qualms about revealing the true situation, should it suit.

[seafoid]

A total of 54 properties were disposed of during the quarter.

Seems (encouragingly) low.

This left mortgage lenders with 522 repossessed residential properties at the end of September 2010.

Ditto.

A lot of homes lying empty from repossession.

Ah.

In any "normal" recession, when faced with mortgagees who can't/won't pay, lenders will still repossess/re-sell, even if at a loss, on the "half a loaf" basis.

However, such has been the drop in property values to date, which would be exacerbated if mortgage lenders put extra repossessed homes on the market, that the lenders can't hope to get even half their "loaf" back, merely crumbs.

Which suggests to me that they may still be drastically overvaluing their loans book and, like Mr. Micawber, are hoping that "something will turn up" before their true financial situation gets exposed.
However if the IMF/ECB arrive before then, they will have no qualms about revealing the true situation, should it suit.

"The Irish banking sector has to be made viable and sustainable," European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said today after finance ministers ended a monthly meeting in Brussels. It "will require quite some reorganisation and restructuring," he said.

The banks will be gone through with a fine tooth comb. The cancer has to be destroyed.

[Evil Genius]

Cameron and the Tories have got to be thinking that this is their big chance to get rid of NI on the cheap.

Explain? 

we'll help you to the tune of 8bn, but you've got to take the north with it.

Really?

The UK didn't offer NI to the ROI when the Troubles were at their height and we were costing the Treasury far more (subsidy, bombs and squaddies' lives etc) than at present.

Nor did it offer us  when the "Celtic Tiger" was (or at least felt) well able to pay for us.

So why on earth would it offer NI to the ROI now?

After all the £8bn offer is hardly altruistic, it is to help prevent the ROI economy going completely tits up, thereby protecting the UK's investment over there.

So to lend the ROI £8bn, whilst simultaneously loading even more of a burden (NI) would be a pretty stupid thing to do.

In fact, almost as stupid as the ROI agreeing...

Anyhow, there has been a lot of resentment on this Board at Nordies/Brits appearing to gloat at the ROI's present difficulties etc.

For myself, I do not share in that gloating - quite the contrary, in fact - for two reasons.

First, there are very many good people in ROI who had little or no say in the creation of this crisis, yet who will suffer disproportionately from its effects. And the same applies in the UK, even if not to quite the same extent.

Second, if the ROI's economy collapses, then this will have severe repercussions for the UK in terms of our lending and exports to the ROI. And that general hurt will disproportionately damage the NI economy.

That said if, as I genuinely believe, the economic crisis in the ROI will kill off completely some peoples deluded hopes of a United Ireland, at least during my lifetime, then it just shows that even the darkest cloud can still have a silver lining.

[whiskeysteve]

The Brits would love to lop off the public sector leper that is the north and for the forseeable future will go as far as they can to cut the spongers adrift. Never will they have had as good an excuse. You would be as well acknowledging that fact as using the economic crises in the south as a vehicle to score smug political points (again).

Will be a very cold house for everyone soon.