The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)

[seafoid]

The 4 year plan (which I still don't know why we need) is to be delyaed untill after the by-election in Donegal. If the idea is to relaease the plan to steady  the markets surely it's economic treason to delay it? The decision to delay it is to save FF from announcing more bad news before the by-election. If this has an impact on the economy then are FF putting the party before the people/country?

Agree totally. They may not get away with it especially if the bond yield drifts upwards.  FF is more important than the rest of the country.

The situation is quite unstable. The opposition don't get to see the numbers and if there is a snap election they will be expected to prepare a Budget. They don't have any way of doing that before the election. FF are working on a budget that someone else will implement. 

Ta sé lofa ina iomlán.

[seafoid]

They'll be 8% by Friday.

What do you think would be the breaking point? If it's 7.5-8% come April would we be able to borrow?

Zapatista

Maybe it won't be 8% by Friday! But it isn't going back down to the 4.5% it was at at the beginning of the year.
8% is just too expensive.  It's €1.6 bn per annum on on €20bn of new borrowing just to pay day to day bills.  It's as if the government is on social welfare and is using its credit card to pay for the weekly shop.

The government cuts €4bn this year and will cut a shocking €6bn next year but at 8% interest all of the social welfare cuts and more would go just to pay off the interest on new borrowing.

Do you think that would mean bail out/IMF regardless of the austerity plans?

If the bond yield doesn't go down meaning if the bond markets don't think the budget will work then I think the game is up. If private capital is too expensive the government won't have any choice.  The EU will try to prevent this step from happening because if Ireland goes the way of Greece, Portugal will follow and Spain would be up next.   

[Hereiam]

Kings of Leon at Slane Castle is sold out. This is how much the recession means to the young people of Ireland. They are still spending there money on things they don't need.
On another note Tesco says that its Ireland stores are the most profitable, yet Tesco operates out of Switzerland thus paying no tax to any government. The day that we moved away from the local shops etc was the start of our problems

[seafoid]

The situation is slipping away from the Government


Chile's government has put the entire Irish funds industry on a watch list because Ireland's sovereign debt woes have triggered a regulation requiring total withdrawal from the country.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/948d213e-e83c-11df-8995-00144feab49a.html#axzz14OrLoGCa

Fears over the health of the eurozone bond market intensified after one of Europe's biggest clearing houses warned investors they could be compelled to stump up substantially more money to trade in Ireland's debt. LCH Clearnet told members they might be required to deposit more cash to trade in Irish sovereign bonds, a move that is being widely interpreted as a signal that the organisation will act next week.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3af7e838-e847-11df-8995-00144feab49a.html#axzz14OtDBImD

[Hereiam]

IRELAND IS SAVED!!!! THE GOVERNEMENT IS GIVING AWAY FREE CHEESE

[gerrykeegan]

Mental note to myself, never go drinking with seafoid and the muppet. George Glee has   nothing on you two.

[seafoid]

Gerry.

Both myself and the Muppet have been following Connacht teams for many years. And there comes a point in many a Galway hurling match and many a Mayo football match when thoughts turn immediately to next year and what can be salvaged from the disgrace unfolding on the pitch. And that is where Ireland is at the moment. 
Bond market 4-21 Ireland 0-5 as we approach half time. 

In the long run everything will stabilise but for the moment FF appear to have driven Ireland straight into an oncoming juggernaut. 

[gerrykeegan]

Following westmeath is no better. Last year I watched us concede 9 goals and 48 points to dublin over 2 games. I stayed till the end and hoped and prayed we could turn it around. In fact in parnell park people  openly laughed at me. Maybe thats where Ireland is now. The markets are certainly laughing at us.

[Croí na hÉireann]

Following westmeath is no better. Last year I watched us concede 9 goals and 48 points to dublin over 2 games. I stayed till the end and hoped and prayed we could turn it around. In fact in parnell park people  openly laughed at me. Maybe thats where Ireland is now. The markets are certainly laughing at us.

Chin up Gerry, I have a feeling in my bones that 2011 is gonna be a hell of a lot better than the last 2 years (Westmeath related only), we've got a great draw in Leinster for a start...

[gerrykeegan]

Ah croi ever the optimist, this year will be our year , great draw, the boys are flying in training!

[Bogball XV]

They'll be 8% by Friday.

What do you think would be the breaking point? If it's 7.5-8% come April would we be able to borrow?

No, it won't come to that - not when we have the 5% option from the EU bailout.  Apparently the 7.5% to 8% being signalled means that there wouldn't be any take up if we actually went to the market anyway.  The phrase junk bonds might be bandied about!

[muppet]

Mental note to myself, never go drinking with seafoid and the muppet. George Glee has   nothing on you two.

Right idea, wrong reason though.

(Although I admit I had to make a run for it after 6 hours drinking with Hoof Hearted.)

[seafoid]

They'll be 8% by Friday.

What do you think would be the breaking point? If it's 7.5-8% come April would we be able to borrow?

No, it won't come to that - not when we have the 5% option from the EU bailout.  Apparently the 7.5% to 8% being signalled means that there wouldn't be any take up if we actually went to the market anyway.  The phrase junk bonds might be bandied about!

I don't think we'd get 5% from an EU bailout, Bogball.  5% was back in April when Mayo were being touted as all-Ireland runners and Irish Life was trading at €3.  Ni bheidh  a leithéid arís ann.

  Wolfgang Munchau had a few articles about the likely rate a few months ago. The rate is more likely to be closer to 7% . If Portugal falls into the vortex Spain can't be far behind.  So anything could happen. 

Apparently yields are rising because bond wallahs are repricing to take account of the risk of restructuring of EU periphery bonds. The additional yield  they got to reflect sovereign risk isn't enough. That in itself is going to drive up the rates the bond markets charge for debt and would also be reflected in the cost of any bailout. 

[ludermor]

I cant wait until budget day when Brian Lenihan walks into the Dáil and unveils his latest plan - magic beans.

[Croí na hÉireann]

Ah croi ever the optimist, this year will be our year , great draw, the boys are flying in training!

We always do well the year after we get a kicking Gerry, 2004 after 2003, 2006 after 2005, 2008 after 2007, so I reckon after the last 2 years we'll have a hell of a bite in us this year. A lot of lads will be feeling the pain of the last 2 years, the U21s from last year will be a year older & if key players remain injury free there's a Leinster there for the taking. So all that said, lump on Wexford putting us out in the first round