The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)

[seafoid]

7.5%

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1103/ntma-business.html

Yes it is a rate that we are not borrowing at, yet.

But it is a bit like Oireachtas Celtic having drawn Barcelona in the Champions League. You don't play them for a few weeks yet, but you have to watch them beat the likes of Real Madrid and Juventus 10-0 every week as it gets closer.

And Brian Cowen will be marking Messi.

Cowen is very Messi

[whiskeysteve]

Irish 10 year bond bids soared today and now touching 7.9%. 

http://twitter.com/brianmlucey

[seafoid]

They'll be 8% by Friday.

It reminds me of this

http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2010/aug/18/zombie-carpenter-ant-fungus

The fungus, which is alive and well in forests today, latches on to carpenter ants as they cross the forest floor before returning to their nests high in the canopy. The fungus grows inside the ants and releases chemicals that affect their behaviour. Some ants leave the colony and wander off to find fresh leaves on their own, while others fall from their tree-top havens on to leaves nearer the ground. The final stage of the parasitic death sentence is the most macabre. In their last hours, infected ants move towards the underside of the leaf they are on and lock their mandibles in a "death grip" around the central vein, immobilising themselves and locking the fungus in position.

[Declan]

Robbed this from politics .ie


http://media.todayfm.com/listenback/

go to the last word, wednesday, part 3 and 23.30 minutes in.


I think everyone on this site should listen.

I now there is another thread but i feel this deserves a thread of its on cause it has a link to the clip.
If its merged with the other thread i feel it will be overlooked by alot of posters. I believe everyone here should listen.
Great rant followed by some common sense and simple enough solutions.

never before have i heard anyone on Irish radio call it as it is. Its like a breath of fresh air to finally hear someone echo exactly what the vast majority of people think is happening, the bailout of the elite to the detriment of the working and middle class.

[muppet]

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1104/politics.html

€6 Billion budget. Double last year's and double what he forecast for this year.

It was between €3 & €4 Billion only a couple of months ago during the 'drunk' radio interview.

Reading a very good book called 'The Big Short' by Michael Lewis. Only a 3rd into it but you can see how some clever financiers correctly predicted the subprime crash and then figured out how to profit from it. They invented CDS's first (then CDOs) which were basically bets (called insurance but without any insurance funding requirements) paid annually that the market would crash. The transactions were incredibly complex, to disguise the reality from experts, but the logic was very very simple.

Applying the same simple logic to here would suggest we are going to commit economic suicide.

We had a property bubble (but not quite the sub-prime one they had, yet)
However by increasing austerity measures to pay to bail out the banks we are going to force more people into default, which will increase the bank debts,
which will push the bill for the bailout out higher,
which requires further austerity measures and so on....

To add to this the banks are raising interest rates on those not on trackers or fixed rates. Some of these will have got big mortgages near the top of the boom and the tax increases and pay cuts will force them into default meaning more taxpayers' money to the banks.

What am I missing that is going to save us?

[bcarrier]

Lenny's pennies is the answer. Ireland has to devalue/ renege.

[Evil Genius]

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1104/politics.html

€6 Billion budget. Double last year's and double what he forecast for this year.

It was between €3 & €4 Billion only a couple of months ago during the 'drunk' radio interview.

Reading a very good book called 'The Big Short' by Michael Lewis. Only a 3rd into it but you can see how some clever financiers correctly predicted the subprime crash and then figured out how to profit from it. They invented CDS's first (then CDOs) which were basically bets (called insurance but without any insurance funding requirements) paid annually that the market would crash. The transactions were incredibly complex, to disguise the reality from experts, but the logic was very very simple.

Applying the same simple logic to here would suggest we are going to commit economic suicide.

We had a property bubble (but not quite the sub-prime one they had, yet)
However by increasing austerity measures to pay to bail out the banks we are going to force more people into default, which will increase the bank debts,
which will push the bill for the bailout out higher,
which requires further austerity measures and so on....

To add to this the banks are raising interest rates on those not on trackers or fixed rates. Some of these will have got big mortgages near the top of the boom and the tax increases and pay cuts will force them into default meaning more taxpayers' money to the banks.

What am I missing that is going to save us?

Repossession by the United Kingdom*?

OK, we'd take over the Deeds, but I'm sure you could get to stay in the property on a rental basis...

* - Sometime in 2016 would have a nice symmetry to it, I'd say...

[seafoid]

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1104/politics.html

€6 Billion budget. Double last year's and double what he forecast for this year.

It was between €3 & €4 Billion only a couple of months ago during the 'drunk' radio interview.

Reading a very good book called 'The Big Short' by Michael Lewis. Only a 3rd into it but you can see how some clever financiers correctly predicted the subprime crash and then figured out how to profit from it. They invented CDS's first (then CDOs) which were basically bets (called insurance but without any insurance funding requirements) paid annually that the market would crash. The transactions were incredibly complex, to disguise the reality from experts, but the logic was very very simple.

Applying the same simple logic to here would suggest we are going to commit economic suicide.

We had a property bubble (but not quite the sub-prime one they had, yet)
However by increasing austerity measures to pay to bail out the banks we are going to force more people into default, which will increase the bank debts,
which will push the bill for the bailout out higher,
which requires further austerity measures and so on....

To add to this the banks are raising interest rates on those not on trackers or fixed rates. Some of these will have got big mortgages near the top of the boom and the tax increases and pay cuts will force them into default meaning more taxpayers' money to the banks.

What am I missing that is going to save us?

Exports!

Actually there is plenty of money in Ireland. It will probably get to the stage where outside assistance is required. And they will ask for everyone to chip in. And Croke Park won't last. Neither will top rate pensions tax relief. Consultants will take a big pay cut. Agus mar sin de.

the St Vincent De Paul press releaser today put it all into focus.

As did the sickening Healy Rae list of demands. 

[Bogball XV]

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1104/politics.html

€6 Billion budget. Double last year's and double what he forecast for this year.

It was between €3 & €4 Billion only a couple of months ago during the 'drunk' radio interview.

Reading a very good book called 'The Big Short' by Michael Lewis. Only a 3rd into it but you can see how some clever financiers correctly predicted the subprime crash and then figured out how to profit from it. They invented CDS's first (then CDOs) which were basically bets (called insurance but without any insurance funding requirements) paid annually that the market would crash. The transactions were incredibly complex, to disguise the reality from experts, but the logic was very very simple.

Applying the same simple logic to here would suggest we are going to commit economic suicide.

We had a property bubble (but not quite the sub-prime one they had, yet)
However by increasing austerity measures to pay to bail out the banks we are going to force more people into default, which will increase the bank debts,
which will push the bill for the bailout out higher,
which requires further austerity measures and so on....

To add to this the banks are raising interest rates on those not on trackers or fixed rates. Some of these will have got big mortgages near the top of the boom and the tax increases and pay cuts will force them into default meaning more taxpayers' money to the banks.

What am I missing that is going to save us?

Repossession by the United Kingdom*?

OK, we'd take over the Deeds, but I'm sure you could get to stay in the property on a rental basis...

* - Sometime in 2016 would have a nice symmetry to it, I'd say...

If you take over the €500bn we owe, i know who gets the better deal.

[FermGael]

Robbed this from politics .ie


http://media.todayfm.com/listenback/

go to the last word, wednesday, part 3 and 23.30 minutes in.


I think everyone on this site should listen.

I now there is another thread but i feel this deserves a thread of its on cause it has a link to the clip.
If its merged with the other thread i feel it will be overlooked by alot of posters. I believe everyone here should listen.
Great rant followed by some common sense and simple enough solutions.

never before have i heard anyone on Irish radio call it as it is. Its like a breath of fresh air to finally hear someone echo exactly what the vast majority of people think is happening, the bailout of the elite to the detriment of the working and middle class.

Very true. 

[mayogodhelpus@gmail.com]

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1104/politics.html

€6 Billion budget. Double last year's and double what he forecast for this year.

It was between €3 & €4 Billion only a couple of months ago during the 'drunk' radio interview.

Reading a very good book called 'The Big Short' by Michael Lewis. Only a 3rd into it but you can see how some clever financiers correctly predicted the subprime crash and then figured out how to profit from it. They invented CDS's first (then CDOs) which were basically bets (called insurance but without any insurance funding requirements) paid annually that the market would crash. The transactions were incredibly complex, to disguise the reality from experts, but the logic was very very simple.

Applying the same simple logic to here would suggest we are going to commit economic suicide.

We had a property bubble (but not quite the sub-prime one they had, yet)
However by increasing austerity measures to pay to bail out the banks we are going to force more people into default, which will increase the bank debts,
which will push the bill for the bailout out higher,
which requires further austerity measures and so on....

To add to this the banks are raising interest rates on those not on trackers or fixed rates. Some of these will have got big mortgages near the top of the boom and the tax increases and pay cuts will force them into default meaning more taxpayers' money to the banks.

What am I missing that is going to save us?

Repossession by the United Kingdom*?

OK, we'd take over the Deeds, but I'm sure you could get to stay in the property on a rental basis...

* - Sometime in 2016 would have a nice symmetry to it, I'd say...

That would be akin to a badly run company taking over a worse run one. Are you not afraid we rejoin and lumped together with the North as Ireland again. Say 2025 we demand an ungerrymandered vote on 32 County Independence with a clean economic bill of health and a 32 County United Irish Republic 

[Zapatista]

They'll be 8% by Friday.

What do you think would be the breaking point? If it's 7.5-8% come April would we be able to borrow?

[Zapatista]

The 4 year plan (which I still don't know why we need) is to be delyaed untill after the by-election in Donegal. If the idea is to relaease the plan to steady  the markets surely it's economic treason to delay it? The decision to delay it is to save FF from announcing more bad news before the by-election. If this has an impact on the economy then are FF putting the party before the people/country?

[seafoid]

They'll be 8% by Friday.

What do you think would be the breaking point? If it's 7.5-8% come April would we be able to borrow?

Zapatista

Maybe it won't be 8% by Friday! But it isn't going back down to the 4.5% it was at at the beginning of the year.
8% is just too expensive.  It's €1.6 bn per annum on on €20bn of new borrowing just to pay day to day bills.  It's as if the government is on social welfare and is using its credit card to pay for the weekly shop.

The government cuts €4bn this year and will cut a shocking €6bn next year but at 8% interest all of the social welfare cuts and more would go just to pay off the interest on new borrowing.   

[Zapatista]

They'll be 8% by Friday.

What do you think would be the breaking point? If it's 7.5-8% come April would we be able to borrow?

Zapatista

Maybe it won't be 8% by Friday! But it isn't going back down to the 4.5% it was at at the beginning of the year.
8% is just too expensive.  It's €1.6 bn per annum on on €20bn of new borrowing just to pay day to day bills.  It's as if the government is on social welfare and is using its credit card to pay for the weekly shop.

The government cuts €4bn this year and will cut a shocking €6bn next year but at 8% interest all of the social welfare cuts and more would go just to pay off the interest on new borrowing.

Do you think that would mean bail out/IMF regardless of the austerity plans?