The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)

[seafoid]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GIGB10YR:IND

is a good link for the bond agony

It is all about the patterns now. The path of the 10 year bond yield over 4 months looks very very like the path of the Greek 10 year over 4 months at the same stage a few months back before it all went tits up.  And that is what the traders will be looking at. Like a spider caught in a sink when the tap is turned on. It works for a while and then the flow is unstoppable.  And it is bye bye spider.  Or like a target in the sights of a drone operator. The fella behind the screen locks on target. And then shoots.   

[muppet]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GIGB10YR:IND

is a good link for the bond agony

It is all about the patterns now. The path of the 10 year bond yield over 4 months looks very very like the path of the Greek 10 year over 4 months at the same stage a few months back before it all went tits up.  And that is what the traders will be looking at. Like a spider caught in a sink when the tap is turned on. It works for a while and then the flow is unstoppable.  And it is bye bye spider.  Or like a target in the sights of a drone operator. The fella behind the screen locks on target. And then shoots.

When you look at that graph it is interesting how little time we have spent below 5% this year. That is that a rate above which we were told borrowing was 'unsustainable'.

[seafoid]

What is also noteworthy is how the Greek problem drove up yields to levels that have never settled back to the previous pattern.   Once the bond markets turn it is almost impossible to recover the perception that existed beforehand.

FF freakonomics
I think the property explosion was just too big for the jurisdiction. 

[seafoid]

7.30%.  Today the yield is up by 0.15%

That's €30 million extra in interest payments on next year's borrowing caused by today's trading movement.

Since July the yield has risen by 2.3%. That's €460 million in extra interest on a full year's €20bn borrowing.     

[Bogball XV]

7.30%.  Today the yield is up by 0.15%

That's €30 million extra in interest payments on next year's borrowing caused by today's trading movement.

Since July the yield has risen by 2.3%. That's €460 million in extra interest on a full year's €20bn borrowing.   

and all this despite it being reported that NAMA has made €6M so far the year - those bond markets aren't on top of this yet - maybe we should pool our resources and give them a bloody nose!

[seafoid]

7.41%

Another 20 million in interest

[Zapatista]

7.41%

Another 20 million in interest

Will you stop posting!!! Everytime you post we are another 20m in debt!!

[Bogball XV]

7.41%

Another 20 million in interest

but we're not paying this interest rate, this is just the implied yield that the bonds already issued are trading at.  It won't be until we go back to the markets in April that we'll have to pay such rates - except that Emmett Oliver was pointing out that the ECB are willing to stump up at 5%, but they may have a few conditions - corporation tax rate being one!!

[muppet]

7.41%

Another 20 million in interest

but we're not paying this interest rate, this is just the implied yield that the bonds already issued are trading at.  It won't be until we go back to the markets in April that we'll have to pay such rates - except that Emmett Oliver was pointing out that the ECB are willing to stump up at 5%, but they may have a few conditions - corporation tax rate being one!!

Thereby removing the only route to any sort of recovery.

Better off defaulting and lowering the corporate tax rate.

[Bogball XV]

7.41%

Another 20 million in interest

but we're not paying this interest rate, this is just the implied yield that the bonds already issued are trading at.  It won't be until we go back to the markets in April that we'll have to pay such rates - except that Emmett Oliver was pointing out that the ECB are willing to stump up at 5%, but they may have a few conditions - corporation tax rate being one!!

Thereby removing the only route to any sort of recovery.

Better off defaulting and lowering the corporate tax rate.

hard to say really, i don't think in the long run we'll get away with our CT rate anyway and I've said before that I can't see how a single currency can be expected to last when there are such vastly differing tax and expenditures policies within it.
We should have been using the income generated from MNC's to plan for a future without MNC's, because experience shows they cannot be relied upon to stick around when the going gets tough.

[seafoid]

I think that is a very good point about MNCs, Bogball. Do you remember 1984 when Ford, Dunlop and some other MNC pulled out of Cork ? 

The Government had no long term vision other than eternal property price rises so it's no surprise they were so vulnerable when crisis came calling.

[muppet]

I think that is a very good point about MNCs, Bogball. Do you remember 1984 when Ford, Dunlop and some other MNC pulled out of Cork ? 

The Government had no long term vision other than eternal property price rises so it's no surprise they were so vulnerable when crisis came calling.

We gave away the only natural resource we have. We don't produce anything else so if the Corporate tax rate advantage we offers goes we will become some abandoned desolate part of europe, like parts of the mid-west USA after the great depression.

[muppet]

7.5%

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1103/ntma-business.html

Yes it is a rate that we are not borrowing at, yet.

But it is a bit like Oireachtas Celtic having drawn Barcelona in the Champions League. You don't play them for a few weeks yet, but you have to watch them beat the likes of Real Madrid and Juventus 10-0 every week as it gets closer.

And Brian Cowen will be marking Messi.

[Rossie11]

Very good Muppet..   
Although I reckon Cowen would make a better fist of that job than the one he currently has..

[Bogball XV]

Very good Muppet..   
Although I reckon Cowen would make a better fist of that job than the one he currently has..

I don't know about that Rossie, was he not on the offaly u21 football team that lost to Kilkenny?