The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)

[trileacman]

Declan

I think the bond traders are goading the EU to do something about the worries over default. They are very sensitive at the moment.

I thought the bail-outs have ruled out default? And I thought the EU, whether officially or not, have ruled out the possibility of default and that is why the Irish government had to guarantee the bonds?

A default by one of the peripheral countries could trigger another global panic.

In the sense that one country defaulting could lead to several defaulting?? Kind of a domino effect?

Forgive my ignorance but I know very little of this current situation.

[muppet]

Declan

I think the bond traders are goading the EU to do something about the worries over default. They are very sensitive at the moment.

I thought the bail-outs have ruled out default? And I thought the EU, whether officially or not, have ruled out the possibility of default and that is why the Irish government had to guarantee the bonds?

A default by one of the peripheral countries could trigger another global panic.

In the sense that one country defaulting could lead to several defaulting?? Kind of a domino effect?

Forgive my ignorance but I know very little of this current situation.

That puts you level with most of us but well ahead of the Government.

[trileacman]

Declan

I think the bond traders are goading the EU to do something about the worries over default. They are very sensitive at the moment.

I thought the bail-outs have ruled out default? And I thought the EU, whether officially or not, have ruled out the possibility of default and that is why the Irish government had to guarantee the bonds?

A default by one of the peripheral countries could trigger another global panic.

In the sense that one country defaulting could lead to several defaulting?? Kind of a domino effect?

Forgive my ignorance but I know very little of this current situation.

That puts you level with most of us but well ahead of the Government.

I would believe the Government would be level with me but probably not as truthful about what they don't know.

[seafoid]

Declan

I think the bond traders are goading the EU to do something about the worries over default. They are very sensitive at the moment.

I thought the bail-outs have ruled out default? And I thought the EU, whether officially or not, have ruled out the possibility of default and that is why the Irish government had to guarantee the bonds?

A default by one of the peripheral countries could trigger another global panic.

In the sense that one country defaulting could lead to several defaulting?? Kind of a domino effect?

Trileacman

The EU drew a line in the sand that said no bond investor left behind but the bondwallahs are not buying it.  The repayment of the debt depends on lots of factors over which the EU has no control. If enough banks etc  sell their Irish bonds and the price falls enough to mean that the interest yield on the bonds rises to 10% then Ireland will not be able to borrow any new money from the bond markets. And that would mean that the budget would have to be cut by 20bn in one year.  Which would mean that the economy would tank and that it would be very hard to give all of the bond investors their capital back.   

If you are interested I can recommend the book "the coming first world debt crisis" by Ann Pettifor which was written in 2006. 

The markets are all about confidence. If Ireland or Spain went people would be very worried about Portugal and Italy and then France and Belgium etc.  It is a bit like a crowd losing confidence in a team.  Hard to explain what drives it but once the crowd loses heart the game is usually lost. 

The people making the decisions about what to buy and sell are young traders in London who have no idea about anything else. Mostly interested in coke and prostitutes apparently. 

[ardmhachaabu]

Declan

I think the bond traders are goading the EU to do something about the worries over default. They are very sensitive at the moment.

I thought the bail-outs have ruled out default? And I thought the EU, whether officially or not, have ruled out the possibility of default and that is why the Irish government had to guarantee the bonds?

A default by one of the peripheral countries could trigger another global panic.

In the sense that one country defaulting could lead to several defaulting?? Kind of a domino effect?

Trileacman

The EU drew a line in the sand that said no bond investor left behind but the bondwallahs are not buying it.  The repayment of the debt depends on lots of factors over which the EU has no control. If enough banks etc  sell their Irish bonds and the price falls enough to mean that the interest yield on the bonds rises to 10% then Ireland will not be able to borrow any new money from the bond markets. And that would mean that the budget would have to be cut by 20bn in one year.  Which would mean that the economy would tank and that it would be very hard to give all of the bond investors their capital back.   

If you are interested I can recommend the book "the coming first world debt crisis" by Ann Pettifor which was written in 2006. 

The markets are all about confidence. If Ireland or Spain went people would be very worried about Portugal and Italy and then France and Belgium etc.  It is a bit like a crowd losing confidence in a team.  Hard to explain what drives it but once the crowd loses heart the game is usually lost. 

The people making the decisions about what to buy and sell are young traders in London who have no idea about anything else. Mostly interested in coke and prostitutes apparently.

Isn't capitalism great?

[Main Street]

I would believe the Government would be level with me but probably not as truthful about what they don't know.

The bigger issue is that they are not truthful about what they do know.

To go back earlier to the answer that Lenihan gave in the Dail to the question of 'who are the Bondholders', he began his answer with
"Detailed information on bondholders of domestic credit institutions' senior and subordinated debt is not available."

That the biggest crock of sh'ite.

Once upon a time, Irish Gamblers -  called Permanent Anglo Irish Nationwide inc. -   Pain inc. or  PANIC for short - were desperate for cash after their iou's were losing value like sand flowing though a timer. The sand was moving fast to the  bottom container - a deep dark bottomless pit.  Panic had borrowed money from a  loose flush well dressed money lender called Lucky Lucy, who all those years ago flashed his card to them on the golf course, it read - 'Lucky Luke, Senior Bondholder esq'.

Unfortunately, Lucky Luke ran into a bit of trouble after spending a week in Las Vegas and needed some cash urgently, as he was about to gain another nickname - Thumbless Luke. In dire straights, he passed on Panic's iou to another money lender, for cash. That money lender's calling card grimly read 'subordinated  debt' - SOD for short.
SOD inspected Lucky Luke's  iou s. The written value was for the fantastic amount of €30bn. SOD  took a mere glance at who the  "I" was in the iou and offered 17%. You see,  Panic were really the most despised creatures as they would rob their family and friends to support their feckless ways, they were not seen to be very worthy people, they were esteemed no higher than a junkie.
SOD was a canny enough but nevertheless a mean and ruthless gambler who thought there was a reasonable chance of getting at least the 17% back of the value of the iou´s  and who knows what else might happen?
But who could have predicted their good fortune.
There was no guarantee of anything, as the iou´s were not witnessed and stamped in the official way, just a few scribbles on a scrap of paper. If it went to the Courts, the judge would laugh them out of it.

Panic, as predicted, fall flat on their face and turned to the Irish Government for help. Panic had fronted all the bank loans to the people who put the Government into power and who had kept them well oiled. Now SOD was after Panic.
Our minister Brian Lenihan, has some experience in these matters, as rumour had it  he did a few tax returns for some of his mates and they were very happy with his work. Brian knew he need extra help. He turned to the same people who advise SOD, for some urgent wisdom and paid them handsomely for their words. They wrote the advice on a piece of paper and handed it to him, it said   -  "pay up - everything -  you have to save Panic's honour".

[Declan]

7.06% at lunchtime – Guess where Biffo is???








Opening a bleedin Tescos in Naas!!!

[Bogball XV]

7.06% at lunchtime – Guess where Biffo is???








Opening a bleedin Tescos in Naas!!!

I wonder when he's at the opening and talking about how it'll see the creation of 80(?) jobs, whether he'll mention that other local shops might see a few jobs go, or do they think that a new supermarket opening will actually lead to increased demand in the country as a whole and thus a net creation of jobs?

[seafoid]

Up to 7.22%


I saw an interview with Brian Cowen in the Irish Times of last week. Presumably it was supposed to be some kind of reassurance to worried taxpayers.   Zero credibility.

[Zapatista]

Up to 7.22%


I saw an interview with Brian Cowen in the Irish Times of last week. Presumably it was supposed to be some kind of reassurance to worried taxpayers.   Zero credibility.

Was the interview done outside an Aldi store? Aldi have opened about 10 stores in the last year or two yet Cowen only has time to attend the opening of a Tesco store. I wonder who opened all the Aldi stores. Would it not bring reassurance to know that the Germans were taking over?

[Bogball XV]

Up to 7.22%


I saw an interview with Brian Cowen in the Irish Times of last week. Presumably it was supposed to be some kind of reassurance to worried taxpayers.   Zero credibility.

Was the interview done outside an Aldi store? Aldi have opened about 10 stores in the last year or two yet Cowen only has time to attend the opening of a Tesco store. I wonder who opened all the Aldi stores. Would it not bring reassurance to know that the Germans were taking over?

Maybe Aldi had the wit to know that having the biffo at a store opening wasn't really a good pr message.

[seafoid]

FF are at 18% in the polls. I wonder is there any chance of Biffo losing his seat in the next election. 

[Declan]

http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2010/11/01/who'll-invest-in-a-country-with-an-obvious-death-wish?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+Davidmcwilliams+(DavidMcWilliams.ie)

[Hereiam]

The government know that alot of people have savings built up over the years, they know the people will not let go of these savings as people will not spend, so the only way they can get their hands on this money is to tax the shite out of the people so that they will have no choice but to start using their savings. Simple as that. The government is going to get its hands on ur money wether u like it or not.

[muppet]

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1102/ntma-business.html

7.33%

Going......going........

Edit: The RTE link says it reached 7.338% but the Bloomberg one suggests a high of 7.23%. Either way if the budget isn't the most draconian in our history, we are history.

Now I understand what McDaid is at. He'll probably emigrate tomorrow.