The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)

[Bogball XV]

where are you getting that 33bn in tax from? My understanding is that income is around 70bn vs tax of 50bn.

Tax is €31bn or so this year. However there is also PRSI, Health Levy, Pension Levy and assorted charges for things and even things like rents and fines. So revenue is indeed 50Bn odd.

I imagine the tax figures include the new income levies though. 
Essentially what happens is that prsi and probably pension levy are netted off against the expenditure on same, thus whilst gross revenue is somewhere round 50Bn (not sure about that all), then gross expenditure is somewhere round 75Bn. 

Normally the figures bandied about are the net figures.

[Myles Na G.]

Should I be encourageing them to learn as many languages as possible and get the hell out of here as soon as they can.

Yes.

Can anyone explain why the Irish Gov felt the need to bail out these banks in the first place, why couldnt they let them go bust, surely it would have been the cheaper option.

They will say there were no easy options and in a way they have a point. However the only reason they took this route was to mind themselves and their freinds. The people who really run the country and the Fianna Fail party, the Property developers and the bankers were responsible for all this. So in order to protect them as much as possible, the government have taken this route of bailing out Anglo Irish and the others.

The option you mentioned of letting the banks go bust would have been the best in the long run but there would have been a lot of short term pain and the government would have been run out of town. So they chose to put the problem back to some point in the future.

Let the banks go bust and what happens? A lot of other international banks, who were happy to lend our banks ridiculous sums of money in the good times, don't get their money back. This would not be good news for Ireland. The only thing keeping Ireland afloat at the moment is foreign loans. If there's even a whiff of doubt about Ireland's long term ability to repay its debts, that money would be withdrawn pretty quickly. If that happens, then we're well and truly stuffed.

[muppet]

Should I be encourageing them to learn as many languages as possible and get the hell out of here as soon as they can.

Yes.

Can anyone explain why the Irish Gov felt the need to bail out these banks in the first place, why couldnt they let them go bust, surely it would have been the cheaper option.

They will say there were no easy options and in a way they have a point. However the only reason they took this route was to mind themselves and their freinds. The people who really run the country and the Fianna Fail party, the Property developers and the bankers were responsible for all this. So in order to protect them as much as possible, the government have taken this route of bailing out Anglo Irish and the others.

The option you mentioned of letting the banks go bust would have been the best in the long run but there would have been a lot of short term pain and the government would have been run out of town. So they chose to put the problem back to some point in the future.

Let the banks go bust and what happens? A lot of other international banks, who were happy to lend our banks ridiculous sums of money in the good times, don't get their money back. This would not be good news for Ireland. The only thing keeping Ireland afloat at the moment is foreign loans. If there's even a whiff of doubt about Ireland's long term ability to repay its debts, that money would be withdrawn pretty quickly. If that happens, then we're well and truly stuffed.

Why can Iceland now borrow money cheaper than us then?

[Lecale2]

Things are so, so bad now that maybe, just maybe, they should call the international bankers bluff.

Refuse to bail out AIB and Anglo and let's see what happens.

Maybe the roof won't fall in. Who is telling us it will? Bankers. That's right, the same guys that have kept things on the straight and narrow the past few years. Ireland has nothing to lose now. We need a brave leader to say "Feck it! Enough is enough!".

[muppet]

Professor Ray Kinsella: We simply cannot get back to a 3% deficit by 2014 and we will break the back of the economy if we try.



Imagine if the German economy keeps growing and they decide to raise interest rates anytime before 2014.

[muppet]

Looking at p.ie some of them are talking about INBS.

Apparently they have now been bailed out for an amount equal to every cent they loaned out. That means, if the p.ie guys are to be believed, that of all of their loans nothing was recoverable. Smells very very fishy. It could hardly be called systemic and it wasn't even a bank.

[MCMLX]

Things are so, so bad now that maybe, just maybe, they should call the international bankers bluff.

Refuse to bail out AIB and Anglo and let's see what happens.

Maybe the roof won't fall in. Who is telling us it will? Bankers. That's right, the same guys that have kept things on the straight and narrow the past few years. Ireland has nothing to lose now. We need a brave leader to say "Feck it! Enough is enough!".

I`d like to see this happen. It has to be the cheaper option.

Silly question but where are the opposition regarding this banking crisis? Surely they should be organising street protests, rallying the troops, preparing for government, etc etc etc. Or are they up to their necks in it as well?

[muppet]

Things are so, so bad now that maybe, just maybe, they should call the international bankers bluff.

Refuse to bail out AIB and Anglo and let's see what happens.

Maybe the roof won't fall in. Who is telling us it will? Bankers. That's right, the same guys that have kept things on the straight and narrow the past few years. Ireland has nothing to lose now. We need a brave leader to say "Feck it! Enough is enough!".

I`d like to see this happen. It has to be the cheaper option.

Silly question but where are the opposition regarding this banking crisis? Surely they should be organising street protests, rallying the troops, preparing for government, etc etc etc. Or are they up to their necks in it as well?

For the last 15 years the media have replaced the opposition as the opposition. The problem is that just before each election they change tack and support the government which is not really what oppositions are supposed to do. And of course thousands of Irish voters haven't figured this out yet.

[seafoid]

Lenihan going a bit seafoid on Prime time about media coverage. He looks possessed.  I wonder if the EU would insist on senior boldholders chipping in before Ireland gets any sponds from the special EU pot behind the dresser.     

[seafoid]

Professor Ray Kinsella: We simply cannot get back to a 3% deficit by 2014 and we will break the back of the economy if we try.



Imagine if the German economy keeps growing and they decide to raise interest rates anytime before 2014.

A good dose of inflation would work wonders for the debt load.

[Bogball XV]

I find it difficult to fathom how lenihan can stand there and say that every decision taken since the start of the crisis has been the right one, when the two biggest decisions are disastrous.  It's time the man stood down, he seems determined to champion both NAMA and the guarantee in the face of all evidence to the contrary, so regardless of how well meaning he is, he has turned into a dangerous fool.

As I said before there's no point in defaulting, it's too late, it would just involve another huge legal battle that'd be lost, that or become international outcasts and live on our own island with no outside interaction - de valera's paradise.

[MCMLX]

For the last 15 years the media have replaced the opposition as the opposition. The problem is that just before each election they change tack and support the government which is not really what oppositions are supposed to do. And of course thousands of Irish voters haven't figured this out yet.

The Irish voters? What about Fine Gael? Isnt it time they figured it out? Feckin hell, you`d think they`d be all over this like a rash on a hookers arse.

[muppet]

For the last 15 years the media have replaced the opposition as the opposition. The problem is that just before each election they change tack and support the government which is not really what oppositions are supposed to do. And of course thousands of Irish voters haven't figured this out yet.

The Irish voters? What about Fine Gael? Isnt it time they figured it out? Feckin hell, you`d think they`d be all over this like a rash on a hookers arse.

How do they do that without the media? Why was Lenihan allowed to be interviewed without Noonan?

[Fear ón Srath Bán]

As I said before there's no point in defaulting, it's too late, it would just involve another huge legal battle that'd be lost, that or become international outcasts and live on our own island with no outside interaction - de valera's paradise.

They can default, but not whilst that guarantee is live, i.e., not until another 3 months have elapsed after last night's Dáil vote for continuation of same (for that period). But even then, they'd have to dissemble right up until a second after midnight on the date of expiry and then drop the bombshell that subordinated debt is up for review (having worked hammer and tongs behind the scenes to put an alternative strategy in place, that doesn't crucify the taxpayer), with everything that that would entail (such as public ownership of AIB & BOI, etc.).

[seafoid]

The danger is that it's not over yet, that non NAMA lending in BoI and AIB throws up another few bn of losses. NAMA is the most that that the country could manage. If it is insufficient then all bets are off.   Lenihan to be fair to him is only doing what he is being told to do. If the implosion of the property bubble gets beyond a certain size there is very little any government can do. What I find most  objectionable about Lenihan is the hounding of people like Morgan Kelly who called this right from the start.