The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)

[Zapatista]

http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2010/09/27/recovery-is-going-to-be-local

Intresting read. Iceland seemed to have done the right thing, but will the brits and others hold this against them in the future.

A new Government with no skeletons in the closet to thank. Here on the other hand.........

[seafoid]

Another development of note

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/business-news/new-york-hedge-funds-bet-against-republic-of-ireland-14959638.html

[Bogball XV]

Another development of note

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/business-news/new-york-hedge-funds-bet-against-republic-of-ireland-14959638.html

ah yeah, here we go again - it's all the fault of the big bad speculators.

Anyone remember this:

Some of the consortium are incensed by the recent short selling of Anglo shares by stockbrokers in Dublin and London and are determined to punish the offending brokers.

Last night one member told the Sunday Independent: "We are going to teach the brokers and hedge funds that damaged the bank a salutary lesson. It is our bank, it has an entrepreneurial culture. They will come out of this with their fingers burned."

Shares in Anglo have tanked in recent weeks, due largely to short selling. They plunged from a 12-month high of €17.53 to below €7 at one point.

The Financial Regulator has launched an investigation into dealings in the stock, especially around the St Patrick's Day holiday when the shares were assaulted by sellers.

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/anglo-irish-clients-plan-8364500m-revenge-fund-1360423.html

[muppet]

Last night one member told the Sunday Independent: "We are going to teach the brokers and hedge funds that damaged the bank a salutary lesson. They will come out of this with their fingers burned."

This was the Golden Circle of 10. So much for the hedge funds getting their fingers burned, thanks to Lenny the taxpayers are getting cremated. S&P said today that the final bill for Anglo could be €35,000,000,000 or more.

Looking back at that doesn't it demonstrate the spectacular arrogance of those involved? They were going to teach Wall Street a lesson! Wall Street are now shorting our Government Bonds just like they did with Anglo back then. Hold on tight it is going to be a bumpy ride.

[seafoid]

Another development of note

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/business-news/new-york-hedge-funds-bet-against-republic-of-ireland-14959638.html

ah yeah, here we go again - it's all the fault of the big bad speculators.

The Irish situation is a long way from default.  It's not as if there's any logic to how the markets work or that prices reflect all known info at all times.  If hedge funds looking for a quick buck push the country over the cliff it would be appalling. There are enough people suffering in the country today without a crowd of rich bastards making money from it.  Higher interest rates are already crippling the banks.

[muppet]

Another development of note

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/business-news/new-york-hedge-funds-bet-against-republic-of-ireland-14959638.html

ah yeah, here we go again - it's all the fault of the big bad speculators.

The Irish situation is a long way from default.  It's not as if there's any logic to how the markets work or that prices reflect all known info at all times.  If hedge funds looking for a quick buck push the country over the cliff it would be appalling. There are enough people suffering in the country today without a crowd of rich b**tards making money from it.  Higher interest rates are already crippling the banks.

Is it possible that the interest rates are being driven up because of speculation that the Government is considering re-negotiating some of the Anglo debt? In other words the markets are saying don't even think about not paying us back or we will screw you completely, here are some higher interest rates to help you understand.

[seafoid]

The FT says the worries that Anglo bondholders might have to chip in a pay for a few ham sandwiches from that big party they were dancing at last night which resulted in the building experiencing some subsidence - this is freaking out the markets and is being linked to wider worries about the stability of the Eurozone and causing prices of financials in general to fall.

It is all being magnified and bet on and nobody is in charge and it could go any way. Unless miraculously some trader somewhere decides it is "risk on" again and all the money piles into India and China and risky assets and suddenly Irish bonds look like incredible value.   

The efficient markets theory is in shreds.

[muppet]

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0928/economy1.html

[Bogball XV]

The efficient markets theory is in shreds.

Or maybe it's just that we don't have access to information that some other people do.

[muppet]

Am I correct in saying that one of the main reasons for guaranteeing the banks was so that they could borrow money at normal interest rates?

[muppet]

Bank Of Ireland 5 day chart:



Allied Irish Banks 5 day chart:

[Bogball XV]

Am I correct in saying that one of the main reasons for guaranteeing the banks was so that they could borrow money at normal interest rates?

yes and no, the main reason was because we needed someone to lend them money to roll over the short term debt that was coming due, it was presumed that since the new debt would be essentially sovereign debt then it would be at pretty much the same rate as sovereign debt.  That presumption turned out to be reasonably accurate, unfortunately that's because the sovereign debt rate increased to meet the bank rates!!

[Zapatista]

Fmr Iceland PM facing charges over bank crisis

Iceland's parliament has voted to bring court charges for negligence against former Prime Minister Geir Haarde, who led the country during events leading to the country's banking collapse in 2008.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0929/iceland.html

Now that's how you restore confidence with the public and in the markets.

[seafoid]

from the FT

Ireland will unveil on Thursday a fresh taxpayer-funded recapitalisation of Anglo Irish Bank, the institution at the centre of the country's property meltdown, amid rising alarm over the country's financial health.  Ireland's cost of borrowing on Tuesday hit record levels with yields on 10-year government bonds jumping 25 basis points to 6.72 per cent.
Irish bond yields for 10-year debt are at similar levels to Greece at the start of April – only a month before Athens was forced to turn to the international community for loans.
The rise in yields came in spite of buying from the European Central Bank to help stabilise the markets, according to traders, as investors worried that the cost of bailing out Anglo Irish and other financial institutions would be higher than first thought.
The central bank's additional capital injection is expected to be about €5bn (£4.3bn). That would bring the bail-out costs for Anglo Irish to €30bn, shy of the €35bn forecast by credit rating agency Standard & Poor's.

[muppet]

http://www.rte.ie/player/#v=1081462

Prime Time last night.

I am too annoyed to even bother commenting.