The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)

[seafoid]

The markets are not happy with the economic medicine they were screaming for a few months ago. Surprisingly, savage cuts to government spending leads to joblessness which reduces economic growth and can even contract the economy. Who woulda thunk ? 

[bcarrier]

There is some bizarre stuff going on ....how can Irish primary bond sales be oversubscribed while the secondary market tanks ?

and interesting article here ...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/stephanieflanders/2010/09/a_tale_of_two_borrowers.html

[muppet]

There is some bizarre stuff going on ....how can Irish primary bond sales be oversubscribed while the secondary market tanks ?

and interesting article here ...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/stephanieflanders/2010/09/a_tale_of_two_borrowers.html

What's fascinating about the Irish situation is that it has rather little to do with the size of the deficit - or a government failure to take tough action. In fact, as I have written in the past, Ireland was the first country in Europe to announce massive spending cuts and tax rises.

What's worrying investors now isn't the deficit in itself but the huge debts sitting in the financial sector - and how many of them the government will ultimately be forced to honour. At the last count, the government's "contingent liability" in the banking system - the stock of debts that it has guaranteed stood at 153bn euros - nearly 95% of Irish GDP.

And that is without knowing the final figure at Anglo. But no worries, Seanie is alright.

Heard today a guy got mortgage approval for a house. After 4 weeks of approval, signing contracts etc the bank sent a valuer who decided the price had fallen in the 4 weeks and the bank would only give a mortgage on the valuer's estimate. The same banks who threw fuel on the property fire a few years ago are now nuking any chance of stopping the crash.

I think it is time the Irish public did something serious and not involving any political or trade union type movement as none really have any credibility anymore. What about picking a date (say December 1st) and getting as many people as possible (ideally everyone still paying their mortgages) to commit to stopping their mortgage repayments after that date unless:

1: Every Government minister between 2000 - present, still in Government, resigns immediately;
2: National Government formed to pass emergency legislation and emergency budget;
3: Massive levy/tax whatever is legal on Natural Gas production (note to Shell: there is no longer such thing as a free lunch even in this corrupt country);
4: Emergency legislation to extract every possible cent from all of those who owe Anglo/INBS etc, no matter who they are;
5: Emergency legislation making negligence and reckless behaviour of Boards/Executives of financial institutions and politicians a criminal offense (treason springs to mind) enforceable retrospectively;
6: Nationalise all banks and set national mortgage interest rate (for those not on fixed or tracker) in the national interest and stop the banks from screwing up the economy completely;
7: When all the above is done - general election.

[Rossfan]

None of the above will happen as it would hurt all FF's mates from the Galway tent days.
The whole fcukin guarantee/bail out etc was all to save those cnuts from taking the medicine they deseved from foolish Yukon gold rush type investments in the ridiculous propery bubble which was fuelled by FF's tax incentives.

[armaghniac]

6: Nationalise all banks and set national mortgage interest rate (for those not on fixed or tracker) in the national interest and stop the banks from screwing up the economy completely;

This sounds good, but if the government is borrowing at 6% to lend it out at 3% then the country really will be banjaxed.

[muppet]

6: Nationalise all banks and set national mortgage interest rate (for those not on fixed or tracker) in the national interest and stop the banks from screwing up the economy completely;

This sounds good, but if the government is borrowing at 6% to lend it out at 3% then the country really will be banjaxed.

Two different borrowings, although I think what actually happened at the top of the boom wasn't much better. Someone here will know more but I think the banks borrowed at LIBOR and gave trackers on the ECB. Is that correct?

Meanwhile our Government are borrowing at 6.5% and lending to Greece at 5%.

[Zapatista]

I think it is time the Irish public did something serious and not involving any political or trade union type movement as none really have any credibility anymore. What about picking a date (say December 1st) and getting as many people as possible (ideally everyone still paying their mortgages) to commit to stopping their mortgage repayments after that date unless:

1: Every Government minister between 2000 - present, still in Government, resigns immediately;
2: National Government formed to pass emergency legislation and emergency budget;
3: Massive levy/tax whatever is legal on Natural Gas production (note to Shell: there is no longer such thing as a free lunch even in this corrupt country);
4: Emergency legislation to extract every possible cent from all of those who owe Anglo/INBS etc, no matter who they are;
5: Emergency legislation making negligence and reckless behaviour of Boards/Executives of financial institutions and politicians a criminal offense (treason springs to mind) enforceable retrospectively;
6: Nationalise all banks and set national mortgage interest rate (for those not on fixed or tracker) in the national interest and stop the banks from screwing up the economy completely;
7: When all the above is done - general election.

I'm with you on that taking to the streets. I say we picket every Government office in every town in the Country. How about a big rally on Cultchie day out?

Who will pass the legislation if the Government resign? It will automatically spring an election.

I'd even support a more direct campaign steal Brian Lenihans passport or something. I'd let the tyres down on John Gormleys bike to keep him house bound and send Cowen to Newry to keep his head down while he dries out. I honestly think that it is our fear of being caught with facing our own problems that is keeping us quiet. Huge personal debts have (many of) us shackled and afraid to open our mouths in case we upset the applecart and are called on it. I think it's too late for all that. We need to stop the bleed feed the FF vampires before it's too late. The longer they have to use our money to fix their problems the more difficulties we will face. It's long past time we made a decision on this as a Nation.

Cahrlie McGreevy is some boy

[muppet]

Very long article but an excellent explanation of the Greece situation and why the markets are so jittery. Of course it is hard to read it without your mind wandering back to Anglo.

http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2010/10/greeks-bearing-bonds-201010?currentPage=7

[muppet]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2010/09/why_ireland_cant_afford_to_pun.html

"What makes me angry is those who have brought us to this place"

Quote from none other than Brian Lenihan, without a hint of irony apparently.

[Bogball XV]

What's fascinating about the Irish situation is that it has rather little to do with the size of the deficit - or a government failure to take tough action. In fact, as I have written in the past, Ireland was the first country in Europe to announce massive spending cuts and tax rises.

What's worrying investors now isn't the deficit in itself but the huge debts sitting in the financial sector - and how many of them the government will ultimately be forced to honour. At the last count, the government's "contingent liability" in the banking system - the stock of debts that it has guaranteed stood at 153bn euros - nearly 95% of Irish GDP.

That's as may be but in the long run our national debt will be more than the €163BN.  We have the situation wherein our annual deficit is running at 25Bn a year and our target of balancing it by 2013 will not happen without either massive increases in tax take (in reality this is only obtainable if the economy turns around completely) or huge, huge cuts in expenditure (and I appreciate the destimulising effect of both increased taxes and expenditure cuts).

We regularly hear that the irish govt have taken tough decisions, this is normally spouted by ffer's who are trying to convince everyone that they're in some way competent and by outside observers who look at the figures without knowing the story behind them.  For example, hearing that public servants have had their salaries cut by about 7% sounds good, if you don't know that they're the highest paid in europe and so on.  Do any of you know of any tough decisions that have been taken so far?

[PadraicHenryPearse]

Are we being used?  I was wondering with all the doom and gloom our last bond issue was oversubcribed even after the rate climbed to its highest 6.5%. Could people be talking Ireland down so that the rate increases then they can get bonds with better returns safe in the knowledge that we will never be allow to fail ala Greece. All the time we are getting screwed.

I don't know much about it so i could be way off the mark but if they are not doing this it seems a good way to make some extra money.

[seafoid]

I saw in the FT yesterday that Ireland is due another 6.5% of GDP tightening ie cuts over the next 2 years. The surgery is intended to reduce the patient's dependence on deficits but looks likely to kill him before the deficit reduces to the target level.

[Zapatista]

I saw in the FT yesterday that Ireland is due another 6.5% of GDP tightening ie cuts over the next 2 years. The surgery is intended to reduce the patient's dependence on deficits but looks likely to kill him before the deficit reduces to the target level.

What were you saying earlier about 7%

http://twitter.com/davidmcw

where r yeild now, above 7%

[whiskeysteve]

I like his latest tweet:

estb' will say no worries we have enough money till march.like a boozer saying at closing no worries i have a bag o cans stashed at home!

[Hereiam]

http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2010/09/27/recovery-is-going-to-be-local

Intresting read. Iceland seemed to have done the right thing, but will the brits and others hold this against them in the future.