The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)

[Bogball XV]

The problem is that the securities given on the loans are virtually worthless in many cases.  Mostly loans were secured to the asset being purchased and as we now know, agricultural land in Leitrim has a lesser market value than it once did!  The majority of these are with NAMA now anyway.  I was talking to someone involved in NAMA a while ago who reckoned that in a year or 2 when the fuss dies down a bit, NAMA will start to make deals with developers, that will involve writing off most of the monies due, whilst the developer, takes back the land and the now, much smaller loan.  It makes sense that this will happen as NAMA's remit is to try to recover as much as possible and there is no other way of doing this.
That takes us to personal guarantees, once again, whilst anglo is welcome to try and have these honoured, in most cases they are for nominal amounts as opposed to the amounts being loaned.  Even with that, they're mostly circumvented by the fact that wives, children etc probably hold title to any assets of value left.  The other problem with PG's is that the same guys have most likely given them to several banks, thus it's a legal minefield trying to ascertain who has title over anything.  In addition, trying to enforce PG's normally results in a legal battle, with all sorts of spurious arguments being used to avoid compliance (normally along the lines of not understanding the consequences etc).  Whilst the person who gave the guarantee will probably lose as the commercial court has little truck with such sob stories nowadays, whatever few quid they had left will probably be gone in legal fees

[gerrykeegan]

[quote

Interesting posts here on an economist's blog. Some reckon Anglo will ultimately cost over €35,000,000.
http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2010/08/25/sp-downgrade-irish-debt-put-on-negative-watch/

[/quote]

Muppet

If that was the final position we would all be very happy, I think the creative accounting is something you are at.

I am really shit at the quote function

[Shamrock Shore]

€35,000,000.

Sadly it may be 35,000,000,000

[seafoid]

Some of the bucks at irisheconomy.ie are talking about a default. It could get very messy.

[muppet]

€35,000,000.

Sadly it may be 35,000,000,000

Sorry typo, €35 Billion obviously.

[muppet]

Cowen says he will know the cost of re-capitialising Anglo next month.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0912/anglo.html

That effectively admits that he doesn't know how much it will cost and has never known. Fair play to him for committing the Irish taxpayer to a blank cheque likely to be over twice as costly as the Pakistan floods.

[muppet]

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0912/iceland.html

Iceland's former prime minister Geir Haarde and three ministers should be tried for negligence that led to the country's 2008 banking and financial meltdown, a parliamentary commission has said.

Now there is an idea.

Since the banking crisis began in earnest:

AIB - Chairman and CX gone
BOI - Chairman (Governor) and CX gone
IL&P - CX gone (Gillian Bowler still Chairperson)
IN - Chairman and CX gone
EBS - Chairman and CX gone
BOSI - Entire bank gone

Financial Regulator - Head man gone
Central Bank - Head man gone

Department of Finance - Minister is now Taoiseach
                                  - Secretary General gone

Bowler survived because her bank performed the best of the lot and she wasn't implicated in any of the Anglo dodgy deals, which the departed CX claims had approval at the highest level (he wasn't talking about his board).

That leaves Cowen. How has he not only survived but been promoted? All of the other shareholders/stakeholders in the financial institutions considered the positions of their officers untenable after the collapse of the financial sector. But the taxpayer, who will lose the most, apparently doesn't consider the position of the Minister responsible untenable.

We thoroughly deserve what we are going to get.

[muppet]

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/we-must-discard-futile-delay-and-pray-strategy-2334554.html

Surprisingly good article.

[Bogball XV]

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/we-must-discard-futile-delay-and-pray-strategy-2334554.html

Surprisingly good article.

yeah, very good article - most of it common sense, there's a fear that if the people in charge don't keep on spouting positive comments then things are going to get really bad - ffs, do they really think that people are so blind to reality, that analysts abroad can't tell that they constantly talk shite?  Do they not realise that the more rubbish you spout, the lower your credibility becomes?
I remember hearing lenno talk about how as soon as he was given the job, he was made aware by officials that his every word would be analysed and would move the markets...

The most interesting part of that article is how our leaders seem to think that we can keep on borrowing in order to pay ourselves, because soon, it'll all be okay.  I must have a look at the original business plan put forward to the EU in 2008 outlining just how we were going to manage our way out of deficits, I think that by about 2011 we were going to be getting back to almost a balanced budget and that by 2013 our tax take was forecast to be once again in excess of our expenditure  - interesting to see just how close we're coming to that!

[Hardy]

Don't miss the RTÉ "Freefall" documentary, as I had until I watched it on RTÉ Player last night. It's an excellent piece of work on the background to the bank guarantees, from the international banking crisis to Ireland's property bubble, poor regulation, etc. and the details of the meetings and negotiations leading to the guarantee(s).

I was really surprised at how good it was - nothing like the shoddy shite we've come to expect from RTÉ. (This was a third party production for RTÉ).  Part 2 of 2 tonight at 9:30, RTÉ1.

[muppet]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-17/loonie-pares-gains-as-risk-appetite-wanes-on-european-debt-speculation.html

Are we finally running out of rope?

This could be fun:
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSWLA316920100917

[muppet]

http://www.rte.ie/business/2010/0920/ntma.html

If it doesn't go back down we will be goosed shortly.
If it continues to rise we are already goosed.
If there is any more bad news from the banks we are goosed.

[Rossie11]

http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2010/09/20/capital-punishment-for-all

McWilliams most recent piece. Have we anyone in power that has the balls to do what he says regarding Anglo?

[muppet]

http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2010/09/20/capital-punishment-for-all

McWilliams most recent piece. Have we anyone in power that has the balls to do what he says regarding Anglo?

Some interesting comments there Rossie:

"They will simply run out of reasons to believe a government that has been wrong about everything and has destroyed the economy".

"Taken together, it is easy to see that Ireland has run itself up a financial cul-de sac.

The only way out is to bring forward the crisis, rather than wait for it."

"If we don't face the crisis head on, the next few months will witness capital flight and the crisis will come to a head anyway. Better to get on with it."

[Hereiam]

Can someone please explain to me why the dole has not be cut in the south. Surly this needs to be done or does the government realise that if they do this all hell could break loose.