The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)

[Zapatista]

Are FF trying to get us out of this by building another property bubble down the line with the assets Nama will have?

[bcarrier]

Short of actually taking to the streets and having a bloody revolution, actually storming the Dáil and physically removing every government deputy and beating them to a pulp, this thing is going through and the only options open to those left is either get used to poverty, or get the hell out. Badly and all as we're getting raped here, I still don't think we have it in us to go down that road.

Agree 100% - I said earlier in the thread if I was a younger man I'd be long gone from this place and that is the advice I'm giving to my kids. I've lived through the 80s recession and saw 20 out of 22 lads I grew up with having to leave this country with a fair few coming back over the years because it's home and nothing has changed in the political landscape. 

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2009/0826/1224253267074.html - What some of the economists think

Thats an excellent bit of work from the economists.

I think NAMA may not happen - FG and George Lee are starting to get their message out ...

http://www.herald.ie/opinion/why-i-believe-were-being-rushed-bullied--and-intimidated--into-making-a--big-mistake-in-allowing--nama-go-ahead-1868623.html


Kenny ( as expected) made a bags of this last week but what George says here makes sense to me ...the banks are bust and shareholders and bondholders should be first to take the pain. Not future generations of taxpayers.

[Bogball XV]

Short of actually taking to the streets and having a bloody revolution, actually storming the Dáil and physically removing every government deputy and beating them to a pulp, this thing is going through and the only options open to those left is either get used to poverty, or get the hell out. Badly and all as we're getting raped here, I still don't think we have it in us to go down that road.

Agree 100% - I said earlier in the thread if I was a younger man I'd be long gone from this place and that is the advice I'm giving to my kids. I've lived through the 80s recession and saw 20 out of 22 lads I grew up with having to leave this country with a fair few coming back over the years because it's home and nothing has changed in the political landscape. 

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2009/0826/1224253267074.html - What some of the economists think

Thats an excellent bit of work from the economists.

I think NAMA may not happen - FG and George Lee are starting to get their message out ...

http://www.herald.ie/opinion/why-i-believe-were-being-rushed-bullied--and-intimidated--into-making-a--big-mistake-in-allowing--nama-go-ahead-1868623.html


Kenny ( as expected) made a bags of this last week but what George says here makes sense to me ...the banks are bust and shareholders and bondholders should be first to take the pain. Not future generations of taxpayers.

did you see alan ahearne's response to it? Some people are easily bought.

[muppet]

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2009/0827/1224253337021.html

Impossible for foreign banks to trade here, says Rabobank

SIMON CARSWELL, Finance Correspondent
DUTCH LENDER Rabobank has said it is no longer possible for foreign banks to trade in Ireland after the bank disclosed that it had set aside €1 billion to cover losses on the €5 billion loan book at its Irish subsidiary, ACCBank.

The Dutch bank said that foreign banks in Ireland had "to take care of themselves" as Government support measures were not available to non-Irish banks. The bank named Nama as one support.

"It is not really possible for non-Irish banks to compete on that market any more," Rabobank's chief financial officer Bert Bruggink told reporters yesterday.

Higher bad debts at Rabobank led to a 18 per cent fall in profits to €1.3 billion for the first six months of the year. Mr Bruggink said that Rabobank had decided to reduce its business in Ireland gradually.

"Given the short and medium term economic prospects we have concluded there is little hope that the Irish economy will recover in the near future and that is why we have decided to gradually reduce our operations in Ireland," he said.

He said it was "too early" to say whether it would withdraw fully from Ireland. The Government has left the door open to foreign banks to participate in Nama but they are not expected to partake in the plan. Asked if Rabobank would complain to the EC about the disadvantages facing it in Ireland over State supports, the bank said: "You gave us an idea."

Rabobank set aside €400 million to cover loan losses at ACC in the first six months of the year.

The Utrecht-based unlisted bank said it has provided for losses on a fifth of its Irish loans, the equivalent of a bad debt charge of 2,000 basis points, or 20 per cent.

Rabobank had taken "fairly drastic" action to reduce its presence in Ireland, Mr Bruggink said, and the bank had to examine the quality of Irish loans and take "commensurate provisions".

He refused to rule out writing off more of its Irish loan book.

"You can never say never but I don't think it is likely," he said.

He said that property prices had fallen 50 to 60 per cent in Ireland, halving the collateral held by ACC.

ACC is closing 16 of its 25 branches and cutting 200 staff, almost a third of its workforce. The bank is also aggressively pursuing loans owing by developers through the courts.

ACC's threats to liquidate companies in Liam Carroll's Zoe Group over debts of €136 million has forced the developer to seek court protection from creditors who are owed €1.35 billion, including €1.27 billion to banks.

[magpie seanie]

There it is in black and white. This rubbish talk of a 2010 recovery is just that - complete fairytale. Perhaps in the US and Briatain and some of the relatively properly run countries in the world but we here are fcuked.

[muppet]

There it is in black and white. This rubbish talk of a 2010 recovery is just that - complete fairytale. Perhaps in the US and Briatain and some of the relatively properly run countries in the world but we here are fcuked.

So much for 'NAMA will restore confidence'.

I loved Lenny's reaction yesterday to the 46 economists who voiced serious concerns about NAMA. He said about their article 'It is purely speculative'. Really, and NAMA is a racing certainty!

It is very worrying that his only defense to criticisms of his going 'double or quits' with our economy is to say opponents are guilty of speculating.

[bcarrier]

NAMA is a landfill site for the banks. They are getting rid not only of loans secured against property but also derivatives and  "private equity" (sounds like these are loans with no security) . The bank share rally illustrates a fraction of the transfer that is expected to  take place from taxpayer to the bond and shareholders in the banks.

[Billys Boots]

NAMA is a landfill site for the banks.

It would be more apposite to equate it with an incinerator, the public can't get burnt at a landfill. 

[tyronefan]

If NAMA is not the right way to go then can someone not come up with a better idea

It's easy to knock other peoples proposals and just letting the banks go to the wall is not a viable one. We are responsible for the banks deposits now so its looks to me we are between a rock and a hard place. Our only option is to keep the banks afloat.

There is 3 ways of doing this, either nationalize them which means that foreign banks are very wary about lending to them , just give them the money (which we end up doing anyway if NAMA doesn't work) or give them the money through NAMA.
At least through NAMA we get something in return, bad as it may be.

This is my understanding of it.

I don't like any of these options but I have yet to see an idea that looks like it would work any better

[bcarrier]

Better idea here ...

http://www.herald.ie/opinion/why-i-believe-were-being-rushed-bullied--and-intimidated--into-making-a--big-mistake-in-allowing--nama-go-ahead-1868623.html

[magpie seanie]

Can someone explain this to me. Everyone says we can't let the banks go to the wall. I feel a bit silly saying this but - WHY? Surely if the Irish banks fail the foreign banks will take their place? Am I completely off beam? I know it would not be good but obviously I'm missing something when 90 billion of debt is better.

[Zapatista]

The banks play a part in the everyday running of the country from schools to hospitals to every business we use everyday.

If they went to the wall together we would colapse as a society.

[magpie seanie]

The banks play a part in the everyday running of the country from schools to hospitals to every business we use everyday.

If they went to the wall together we would colapse as a society.

Yes I've heard that before.

My point is that if the Irish banks failed, surely some foreign banks would fill the void? Surely if the Irish banks failed it wouldn't be enough to bring down the banking system worldwide?

[whiskeysteve]

if all the banks collapsed i would be stocking up on tinned food and bottled water

Getting a loaf of bread could become problematic...

[Hardy]

Seanie's question is sensible and I always wonder too when I'm told something as holy writ. Usually, when I delve a bit deeper I find I'm being flim-flammed. Think of the lie we're being told about the necessity to vote "Yes" to Lisbon in order to stay in the EU.

So why would it be the end of the world if the Irish banks collapsed? If the government has decided it's OK to spend  €60Bn of our money, would it (Or a small fraction of it) not be better spent in providing incentives for working foreign banks to provide retail and investment banking services in Ireland?

That may be nonsense, but can anyone tell me why?