The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)

[Croí na hÉireann]

If we could go back three years and remove the 30% increase in public sector expenditure we would be half way there to solving the problems.

If we could go back three years and control the price of housing then we would be 3/4's of the way there.

I would say we are there already and maybe more in some parts of the country

We're back to 2004 levels regarding house prices, that's five years, and IMHO we're only halfway there...

[Declan]

Just heard from a colleague whose sister is a Director of KPMG - or was up to a few minutes ago; 30% of her tax dept also got the chop ....batten down the hatches...

10% figure was for public consumption. It'll be as many as it can be

Also - Remember that c.€3bn fig that AIB originally gave that jumped to €8bn in their real results? Well there was a little nugget in the annual accounts that actually says €12bn could be at risk – see below – and this now includes €2.7bn of Irish residential mortgages – almost equivalent to TOTAL for all loans  (€3bn) they claimed was their most pessimistic estimate ( before they got our money..)!

"Management gave guidance on credit quality and the surprise was the large increase in "criticised loans". These are loans that need to be managed to prevent problems in the future.
At the half year criticised loans were 7.6% of total loans, but this has increased to 11.7% of the loan book or €12.5bn at year end. In the company presentation criticised loans were further broken down into watch credit (shows weakness, but can still repay from own resources) and vulnerable (loans is still paying, but relying on other sources). Of the criticised loans €8.2bn are on watch and €4.3bn are vulnerable.
• The majority of loans on the watch list relate to property with €2.7bn (25.4%) of ROI residential"

Finally for the last of the good news - Bank of Ireland share price down to 0.14 cent - yes 14 cent

[Hound]

Interesting stats in the Irish Times today.

6% of people earn over €100,000.
Those 6% contribute 40% of the total income tax take.

The 1500 people who earned over €1m last year (average earnings €2.4m each) contributed, on average, €800,000 each in tax.

[Billys Boots]

The 1500 people who earned over €1m last year (average earnings €2.4m each) contributed, on average, €800,000 each in tax.

That can't be right Hound, that would equate to €1.2T, which would have us on the pig's back.

[armaghniac]

1500 x 0.8m = 1.2B

Another interesting figure knocking about is that the shortfall at present is about €10,000 per worker. Are you ready to pony up your €10,000?

[Rossfan]

If we could go back three years and remove the 30% increase in public sector expenditure we would be half way there to solving the problems.

They need to think about unintended consequences of some of these new taxes. A property tax could become the tipping point for landlords with empty or low rental yield property - while there has been cuts in ECB rates these aren't being passed on in their entirety and I could easily see this precipitating further falls in property prices. They could offset this by scrapping stamp duty and VAT on New houses ( they are collecting bugger all now anyway) . This second move would increase residual land values and bank exposure to bad loans but probably would be seen as a builders bailout and they probably dont have wit to sell it to the masses.

For eff sake will some of ye ever realise that it's all this property fixation that has us in the fcukin sh1t we're in.
House prices will continue to fall in reality till they get back to where they should be in the emptiest country in Europe outside the mainly uninhabitable Scandanavian Countries. That would be between twice and 3 times an average middle income annual salary of around €50k in built up or commuter type parts of the Country. Deduct 25% at least for our part of the Country.
By the way I see a cottage and piece of ground near Boyle is for sale at €20,000 !!! YES TWENTY THOUSAND €.(www.daft.ie)

[armaghniac]

House prices will continue to fall in reality till they get back to where they should be in the emptiest country in Europe outside the mainly uninhabitable Scandinavian Countries.

Exactly. Canada hasn't had a crisis now because it didn't have a property boom and property remained at a price appropriate to a largely empty country. Houses here will be 2.5 times a couples income in big towns, less in the countryside. You won't get many couples starting to buy houses earning more than a combined €100,000 so there will have to sub €300,000 houses in nice areas of cities.

[muppet]

There are 350,000 empty houses in Ireland, the recovery is a long way away.

[Hound]

The 1500 people who earned over €1m last year (average earnings €2.4m each) contributed, on average, €800,000 each in tax.

That can't be right Hound, that would equate to €1.2T, which would have us on the pig's back.

Yes as said above its billion rather than trillion. Those earning over €200,000 contributed a combined €4 billion to the exchequer in income tax last year.

It raises the interesting question of how much is "a fair share".

I think the figures show that the much maligned rich do contribute a lot in terms of tax revenue, and I'm sure in other ways too, e.g. charity, job creation etc. But its minority tax exiles and immoral cheats who grab all the headlines and get the lot of them thrown in the one bucket.

Not that I'm feeling sorry for them! The can afford to pay more and everyone has to feel some pain. But also need to be careful that they are not totally scapegoated, as by their nature they tend to be more mobile and many could feck off to Malta like Denis O'Brien or similar, which could end up leaving us worse off.

[the Deel Rover]

By the way I see a cottage and piece of ground near Boyle is for sale at €20,000 !!! YES TWENTY THOUSAND €.(www.daft.ie)

it needs a bit of work rossfan 

[the Deel Rover]

Latest ISEQ Share Prices
(06 March 2009, 9:00 AM Est 20 minutes delayed)


ALLIED IRISH BKS 0.30  0.03 (11.11%)
BANK OF IRELAND  0.14  0.01 (8.00%)


Never mind the cottage in Boyle Rosssfan any one want to buy a  bank   

[Declan]

A national campaign was launched on last night's Prime Time to seek people's ideas to stimulate economic recovery and focus on solutions to Ireland's serious economic problems.

Called The Ideas Campaign, this grassroots initiative is targeting the citizens of Ireland and asking them to propose innovative ideas to boost economic activity across key areas such as manufacturing, technology, construction, retail and education. But it's not only about business – the Ideas Campaign also wants ideas for the arts, sport and voluntary and community activity that will enrich this country.

The campaign will run until 31 March and centres on a website – IdeasCampaign.ie – which went live today and which will:

    * Capture citizens' ideas across 19 different categories that are important to the Irish economy
    * Allow them to send messages of support
    * Provide easy-to-understand information about the Irish economy that is directly applicable to their lives

This is a citizens' campaign, owned by people in Ireland. The campaign, and those who get involved, have to be practical and realistic, particularly in the light of the global economic crisis and the serious state of the government's finances.

The Ideas Campaign plans to use the ideas received to deliver an action plan for Government in April with aggressive timelines for execution. An Advisory Group, comprising senior figures with experience in business, academia, economics and the public sector, is advising the campaign team and will have an input into the action plan to ensure that recommendations are both pragmatic and achievable.

The campaign arose from a contribution which businesswoman Aileen O'Toole made to the Prime Time special on the economy on 14 January. She spoke about positive aspects of Irish economic activity and the need to focus on solutions, not problems. This TV appearance met with a huge response which led Aileen O'Toole to establish this campaign less than three weeks ago.

The campaign is independent, non-political and has been modestly funded by Aileen O'Toole's business, AMAS. It is being staffed by highly-qualified individuals who have been made redundant because of the recession and who are being supported by a network of volunteers, as well as AMAS's Directors and staff.

[Declan]

Was going to modify my last entry but this really deserves a post of its own

Here is our Minister for Older people  - Marie Hoctor TD on Prime Time last night – She can't even read a prepared script – Lord Jaysus.
Remember she's on €150K a year plus expenses and a car – Beggars belief.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWmnQtZljjw

[the Deel Rover]

Was going to modify my last entry but this really deserves a post of its own

Here is our Minister for Older people  - Marie Hoctor TD on Prime Time last night – She can't even read a prepared script – Lord Jaysus.
Remember she's on €150K a year plus expenses and a car – Beggars belief.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWmnQtZljjw

i saw that last night, jesus i was embarrased for her myself and bad enough that they showed it once but they went and replayed it again

[Billys Boots]

The 1500 people who earned over €1m last year (average earnings €2.4m each) contributed, on average, €800,000 each in tax.

That can't be right Hound, that would equate to €1.2T, which would have us on the pig's back.

Yes as said above its billion rather than trillion. Those earning over €200,000 contributed a combined €4 billion to the exchequer in income tax last year.

It raises the interesting question of how much is "a fair share".

I think the figures show that the much maligned rich do contribute a lot in terms of tax revenue, and I'm sure in other ways too, e.g. charity, job creation etc. But its minority tax exiles and immoral cheats who grab all the headlines and get the lot of them thrown in the one bucket.

Not that I'm feeling sorry for them! The can afford to pay more and everyone has to feel some pain. But also need to be careful that they are not totally scapegoated, as by their nature they tend to be more mobile and many could feck off to Malta like Denis O'Brien or similar, which could end up leaving us worse off.

Sorry Hound, I lost my mathematical abilities there yesterday - I hope they come back soon.