The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)

[Lone Shark]

I love the bit about prejudicing criminal proceedings - as if such an investigation will ever happen in this gombeen kleptocracy. The only bloody sanction we have is to name and shame these guys, but by God FF won't even let that happen. This is a classic maneouvre designed to kick the issue into touch in the short term and hope that it goes away, no doubt when the next set of budget figures come out.

Where the feck is Lone Shark when you need him?

Lone Shark is right here as always, but to be honest even I didn't think that the level of corruption and cronyism went quite this deep. I'll tread warily here since I understand that the line between what can and can't be said is very subtle, but previously I thought that our government was not averse to a little self enrichment on the side as long as the state was kept between the ditches, so to speak. It now appears that as long as the self-enrichment is possible, the entire state and every citizen within it suffering untold damage doesn't seem to bother them in the slightest. They will rape and pillage us to the very last.

It has gone past the point where outrage is needed. The only FF voters left now are those who are simply brainwashed, whether by civil war politics, or possibly by developing a football supporters mentality about their politics. (You know the type - their political allegiance was bestowed upon them by family and it never occurred to anyone that they have the freedom to change their minds). In order to salvage our nation and to have any chance of restoring international confidence in us and in dealing with us, there must be transparency and full application of the rigours of the law. We are actually entering a historic time and the current generation of FF have the potential to go down in Irish history in the same vein as Oliver Cromwell and his armies, with Bertie and Ollie pretty much two peas in a pod. The only chance that Cowen (or anyone else for that matter) has to avoid that stain is to announce an election and that they will be stepping down, and to spend the three months in the run up to it, not campaigning, but purging the state of all the rotten carcass that we know exists. By that I mean revealing the infamous Golden Circle, revealing every donor to FF individuals and party down the years, revealing every scandal that was covered up, giving a true state of the national accounts, telling exactly what compensation was paid to Anglo shareholders (don't you love the way that they managed to hide that info under the "national interest"!!)

The night of the bank guarantee is huge - it's clear that we need to know the full train of events. Why exactly was Anglo saved? What was the advice on which the two Brians acted? What were the repercussions that they were trying to avoid? All we hear is general guff about "Saving the Irish financial system" and "confidence in our banking sector" but nobody explains specifically how they expected matters to pan out if Anglo was left to fall. Who would have suffered? What would the knock on effects have been, step by step rather than a big grandiose summary? I don't consider myself well enough versed in the workings of the bond markets and the CFD trade to be able to know what institutions were dependant on Anglo (and Irish Nationwide, for that matter) surviving, but I respect what happened to the States when Lehman brothers fell. I also know that Goldman Sachs made out like bandits in that particular instance and I've no idea who did here, but I'm damn sure that someone did.

With everything that's gone on, I've lost faith in our elected government, in our collective intelligence as voters, in our watchdog system and in our legal system's ability to prove and punish whitecollar wrongdoing. (Witness what happened in the US with Allen Stanford this week - who honestly believes that we could see anything like that here?) However, rightly or wrongly, I do have faith in our constitution. The time has come for a hero to stand up, and that hero will be another Daniel O'Connell - they will be a legal brain who will be able to go to the Supreme Court and establish that Brian Lenihan was acting ultra vires when he gave the guarantee. I have no doubt that there would be something in there somewhere preventing the Oireachteas from risking the very sovereignty of the state at a moment's notice. If we can abolish that God forsaken guarantee, then we can let the whole house of cards crumble safe in the knowledge that once we are out the far side, we can start again rebuilding our country with the work ethic, ingenuity and togetherness that is innate to us, albeit got badly hidden over the past decade underneath the avarice and the accumulation.

Nobody will act in the best interests of the state when the state is not acting in the best interests of the people. Countless groups will discuss industrial action in the coming weeks and months, some justified and some much less so. Nobody wants to bear any of the brunt themselves as long as they perceive that those who made out like bandits are getting away with it. The elephant in the room is the fact that if the state were to seize every penny that these people owned, the wage cuts and the tax increases would still have to take place because we are in a ridiculously deep hole. Cowen and Lenihan do themselves or indeed Ireland no favours by talking about saving two billion - we need to find the guts of ten, and that will still leave us borrowing about the same again at junk bond rates. If this was stated clearly, then people would get on with it. However as long as they talk of only two billion being needed, well then that can always be got somewhere else - it doesn't need to be out of my pocket, will be the cry of the worker, the state employee, the small businessman and everyone else.

Just like with the banks, we need to start from scratch - however we've been reared to propagate a society where every decision, from ministerial decree right down to ticking the boxes in the voting booth, is made out of self interest. Now is the time for the national interest, and we're really not very good at that.

It's funny how with every issue over the past ten years, the government response was to hire consultants to prepare a report. They have now left us so bad that their last act as a government might be to hand over the very reins to another set of consultants, be they the ECB or the IMF.  

[the Deel Rover]

If we can abolish that God forsaken guarantee, then we can let the whole house of cards crumble safe in the knowledge that once we are out the far side, we can start again rebuilding our country with the work ethic, ingenuity and togetherness that is innate to us, albeit got badly hidden over the past decade underneath the avarice and the accumulation.

Just wondering Loan Shark if the bank guarantee was removed would there not be just a massive run on money with all the banks with people withdrawing whatever savings they have with them  thus guaranteeing the collapse of the Irish Banking System. 

[bcarrier]

I remember reading something ( in tribune I think) about a meeting of anglo customers in a dublin hotel about April/ May last year to organise a fighting fund to see off the hedge funds who were shorting the stock . I had a look for it on tribune website last night but couldnt find it. If you had the attendees I am pretty sure you have the core of the big ten. I presume they wont show up in a company search as will be held through nominee accounts .

Moral of the story ( as alluded to by T Tiernan at IFTAs) ...If you are in a hole stop digging.

[Zapatista]

Lone Shark is right here as always, but to be honest even I didn't think that the level of corruption and cronyism went quite this deep. I'll tread warily here since I understand that the line between what can and can't be said is very subtle, but previously I thought that our government was not averse to a little self enrichment on the side as long as the state was kept between the ditches, so to speak. It now appears that as long as the self-enrichment is possible, the entire state and every citizen within it suffering untold damage doesn't seem to bother them in the slightest. They will rape and pillage us to the very last.


With everything that's gone on, I've lost faith in our elected government, in our collective intelligence as voters, in our watchdog system and in our legal system's ability to prove and punish whitecollar wrongdoing. (Witness what happened in the US with Allen Stanford this week - who honestly believes that we could see anything like that here?) However, rightly or wrongly, I do have faith in our constitution. The time has come for a hero to stand up, and that hero will be another Daniel O'Connell - they will be a legal brain who will be able to go to the Supreme Court and establish that Brian Lenihan was acting ultra vires when he gave the guarantee. I have no doubt that there would be something in there somewhere preventing the Oireachteas from risking the very sovereignty of the state at a moment's notice. If we can abolish that God forsaken guarantee, then we can let the whole house of cards crumble safe in the knowledge that once we are out the far side, we can start again rebuilding our country with the work ethic, ingenuity and togetherness that is innate to us, albeit got badly hidden over the past decade underneath the avarice and the accumulation.
 

Very good as always Loneshark, however I do have issue with a few points.

The Government have been enriching themselves in front of us for nearly 20 years. We decided to turn a blind eye to it as we were enriching ourselves too. It has been clear for a very long time that the country has many at the top who have only one interest yet as long as we got the crumbs from the table we were happy for them to continue. We cannot be absolved from blame as we actively encouraged and defended this behaviour.

Ingenuity and togetherness has never been inate to the Irish.

[Zapatista]

If we can abolish that God forsaken guarantee, then we can let the whole house of cards crumble safe in the knowledge that once we are out the far side, we can start again rebuilding our country with the work ethic, ingenuity and togetherness that is innate to us, albeit got badly hidden over the past decade underneath the avarice and the accumulation.

Just wondering Loan Shark if the bank guarantee was removed would there not be just a massive run on money with all the banks with people withdrawing whatever savings they have with them  thus guaranteeing the collapse of the Irish Banking System. 

The system has collapsed. The problem is that we are drawing out the process of paying for it. A long and slow death. We would be better destroying the entire system from root to tip and starting again from scratch. Like a building about to fall you are better to control it's destruction rather than gamble with maintaining it when it will certainally fall at some stage.

[Lone Shark]

If we can abolish that God forsaken guarantee, then we can let the whole house of cards crumble safe in the knowledge that once we are out the far side, we can start again rebuilding our country with the work ethic, ingenuity and togetherness that is innate to us, albeit got badly hidden over the past decade underneath the avarice and the accumulation.

Just wondering Loan Shark if the bank guarantee was removed would there not be just a massive run on money with all the banks with people withdrawing whatever savings they have with them  thus guaranteeing the collapse of the Irish Banking System. 

There would certainly. However, and I say this as somebody who has no real assets other than a savings in said banks and a wee bit of gold, it still would be the better option right now. You create a new bank where all the deposits and loans are moved to and you freeze access to anything other than living expenses for the short term, while you default on all the bonds and interbank loans made by those banks.

The citizens suffer some loss now, but over time as people pay off their mortgages and so on, the bulk of the cash gets recovered and people get their deposits back. Since every loan and deposit would be matched up with a PPS number, then there would be a good chance of some of the big guys having huge loans in one institution that they had no intention of paying back, balanced off with deposits elsewhere. Any eventual shortfall can be made up by the state over an extended period of time - but since you've got rid of all the big stuff, the exposure is limited. It's not a good situation, but it beats the state being out to the tune of hundred billion, or the equivalent of €25k per man woman and child in the state.

Again let me stress this would not suit me at all, but I don't see an alternative.  

[Lone Shark]

Lone Shark is right here as always, but to be honest even I didn't think that the level of corruption and cronyism went quite this deep. I'll tread warily here since I understand that the line between what can and can't be said is very subtle, but previously I thought that our government was not averse to a little self enrichment on the side as long as the state was kept between the ditches, so to speak. It now appears that as long as the self-enrichment is possible, the entire state and every citizen within it suffering untold damage doesn't seem to bother them in the slightest. They will rape and pillage us to the very last.


With everything that's gone on, I've lost faith in our elected government, in our collective intelligence as voters, in our watchdog system and in our legal system's ability to prove and punish whitecollar wrongdoing. (Witness what happened in the US with Allen Stanford this week - who honestly believes that we could see anything like that here?) However, rightly or wrongly, I do have faith in our constitution. The time has come for a hero to stand up, and that hero will be another Daniel O'Connell - they will be a legal brain who will be able to go to the Supreme Court and establish that Brian Lenihan was acting ultra vires when he gave the guarantee. I have no doubt that there would be something in there somewhere preventing the Oireachteas from risking the very sovereignty of the state at a moment's notice. If we can abolish that God forsaken guarantee, then we can let the whole house of cards crumble safe in the knowledge that once we are out the far side, we can start again rebuilding our country with the work ethic, ingenuity and togetherness that is innate to us, albeit got badly hidden over the past decade underneath the avarice and the accumulation.
 

Very good as always Loneshark, however I do have issue with a few points.

The Government have been enriching themselves in front of us for nearly 20 years. We decided to turn a blind eye to it as we were enriching ourselves too. It has been clear for a very long time that the country has many at the top who have only one interest yet as long as we got the crumbs from the table we were happy for them to continue. We cannot be absolved from blame as we actively encouraged and defended this behaviour.

Ingenuity and togetherness has never been inate to the Irish.

I guess that I thought that ultimately when push came to shove and the country entered real danger, that our government would actually get their fingers out of the till for a few moments and work on solving the problems. It appears now that they have no interest at all - we're going down in flames and all they want to do is get that last bit of looting done before we all fry.

I do have more faith in Irish people than that too. The re-election of Ahern/Cromwell last time out fairly dented it, but I honestly believe that if we remove the "stroke" as a way of life in Ireland, then people will get back to looking after their families and each other. If we didn't believe that, then there's nothing worth fighting for - we may as well all go down in flames and bide our time till the IMF do come along.

[the Deel Rover]

If there was a run on money today for e.g i'd assume that the banks would not have the funds to pay out all the deposits . At this stage where would you put money ? Not that it bothers me i have not a lot of money saved but my mam and dad who have worked hard all thier lifes have some savings and at this stage where would be the best place to put it

[Zapatista]

I guess that I thought that ultimately when push came to shove and the country entered real danger, that our government would actually get their fingers out of the till for a few moments and work on solving the problems. It appears now that they have no interest at all - we're going down in flames and all they want to do is get that last bit of looting done before we all fry.

I do have more faith in Irish people than that too. The re-election of Ahern/Cromwell last time out fairly dented it, but I honestly believe that if we remove the "stroke" as a way of life in Ireland, then people will get back to looking after their families and each other. If we didn't believe that, then there's nothing worth fighting for - we may as well all go down in flames and bide our time till the IMF do come along.

I hope to God your right. I do have little faith. My view on the Irish as a Nation is that we tend to divide rather than unite during hard times. I think your view on the Irish people might come from that football supporter mentality you mentioned earlier.

[Lone Shark]

If there was a run on money today for e.g i'd assume that the banks would not have the funds to pay out all the deposits . At this stage where would you put money ? Not that it bothers me i have not a lot of money saved but my mam and dad who have worked hard all thier lifes have some savings and at this stage where would be the best place to put it

For pure safety - German government bonds. Denominated in Euro so no broker should charge you too much, and some rate of return. I'd be in favour of having at least 20% of your stored wealth in gold too, but that might be a little volatile for them.

I hope to God your right. I do have little faith. My view on the Irish as a Nation is that we tend to divide rather than unite during hard times. I think your view on the Irish people might come from that football supporter mentality you mentioned earlier.

I've said this before on this board, but some of the community work that is done voluntarily where I come from is simply fantastic. When it's neighbours and friends people do row in together and I think we would do this on a national scale too, if the conditions were right.

[bcarrier]

All too busy fixing ( or deflecting) the blame rather than problem at the minute.

Solutions:

1. Get properly qualified ( numerate) people into senior govt and monitoring positions ( all parties and co-op from private sector as required).
2. Define and limit states exposure through bank guarantee ( Not as much as speculated IMO).
3. Reduce the budget deficit and sell it to the country ( pensions levy has a part to play but also need to reduce benefits - deflation justifies it as does international benchmarking)
4. Reduce the minimum wage ( it is driving jobs overseas and puts up shop prices)
5. Tap Brussels for a few bn.

[Bogball XV]

I remember reading something ( in tribune I think) about a meeting of anglo customers in a dublin hotel about April/ May last year to organise a fighting fund to see off the hedge funds who were shorting the stock . I had a look for it on tribune website last night but couldnt find it. If you had the attendees I am pretty sure you have the core of the big ten. I presume they wont show up in a company search as will be held through nominee accounts .

Moral of the story ( as alluded to by T Tiernan at IFTAs) ...If you are in a hole stop digging.

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/anglo-irish-clients-plan-8364500m-revenge-fund-1360423.html

I think this is the story.

If we default on the guarantee where/how do we as a nation go on?  I'm all in favour of the ECB stepping in asap as it is the only way that people are going to accept how totally fcuked we really are.

[An Gaeilgoir]

I have to say the debate on here is very informed and intresting. I have a couple of points to add;
]We really have to lower thecost base of our economy, i was talking to a manager for a large fruit and veg. processor and he has to currently is paying vegetable pickers 14 euros an hour, this quite simply is madness and one example of how out of hand things have got. We need to give our reglatory bodies teeth when it comes to enforcing current law, although vested interests would strongly oppose this. The public sector trade unions have to get real about the state of the economy and the cuts have to be accepted- end of. I know loads of very qualified private sector workers recently laid or currently unsure of their jobs who would gladly take a public sector job and the benefits, however small that come with it. Every penny that the government spends across the board has to be accounted for with clear transperacy of all transactions and tenders accounted for. I read an article last week of middle managers in the HSE who have not worked a day in over a year because the staff  hasn't been allocated to their departments. When one of these people raised the matter, thay were told to keep quite, collect their wages and carry on as normal. We have ESB workers in the midlands earning in excess of 80k a year in a power plant that doesn't generate any power!Todays Irish Times names Healy-Rae plant hire in kerry earning 650k last year in Kerry county council contracts, this is a fine example of conflicts of interest that run through EVERY political party in the country both at national and local level. As for the private sector in which i work, employers have to stop blaming the recession for all the ills of their company. There has to be fair play for all workers. i know a lot of thses comments are aspirational but its mt two cents worth.

[Declan]

Away for a few days but nothing I'm hearing about the golden circle etc surprises me - The only difference between here and places like Zimbabwe is that people aren't dying of starvation - corrupt cronyism
has dominated the largest political party in this country for generations and until we have a revolution nothing will change - Take to the streets

[Double Cross]

corrupt cronyism has dominated the largest political party in this country for generations and until we have a revolution nothing will change - Take to the streets

Obviously all the other parties are whiter than white, maybe that is why they have done so well in the last few elections