The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)

[Declan]

From other forums etc

1. You really couldn't make this up, the €6bn figure wasn't made up this morning BOI must have known this, then why not tell the Government that prior to the recap. Whatever else, it may (I doubt) have spurred the Dept of Finance to seek other guarantees to protect our investment. They have given the timeline up to March 11, as sure as ducks lay eggs there will be an impairment charge of €2bn pa starting this March accounts. Its in the common domain now, the auditors will insist on it, so bye bye 8% "nailed on coupon".They are lying again, they continue to lie and undermine this country with lies and fraud, they are in effect "traitors".
2. Lenihan told us on Morning Ireland this am that he was aware (for a change) of the BOI figures before the recap announcement.
3. If they have to write off 10% of the book now, what will the have to write off over the next two years, as we race to 500k+ on the dole, and everyone else taking significant paycuts, as shopping center units and offices empty out. The worst of this crisis, is still ahead of us
4.Anglo BORROWED the money on the money markets, and lodged it with IL&P.L&P then transferred it to a subdivision of IL&P - their fund management division, who lodged it as a DEPOSIT (not a normal interbank transfer) to make it look like fund managers had faith in Anglo, and to make their End of Year deposit sheet look in the black, when in fact was money they had just borrowed.It's like you borrowing from AIB, giving the money to your mum, who transfers it to you, and then you going to BofI and asking for a loan saying "Look - I've got loads of savings!"
5. George Lee was on RTE this morning. He said, live on air, that the €7B ILP/Anglo transaction was FRAUD. As far as he's concerned a deception was perpetrated on the market and a civil case by share holders is a cert. It's a HUGE deal, we've actually got the banks coming clean now in the form of AIB and BOI on what's on their books and with the recap it should help boost their shares. Currently they are BOTH down 11 and 3 % respectively .
6. Another 1000 jobs gone out in the airport.

Get the pikes and pitchforks ready

[stephenite]

It is absolutley mind boggling.

[FermGael]

Lads this is just absolutely crazy/scary stuff.

Ireland as a country is stuffed.  The debt being talked about here is crazy.
The Politicians sat and watched it happen. Anybody that predicted this at the time was ridiculed for being negative. 
Our grandchildren are going to be paying this back, if there is still a country left.
This is way beyond a depression.  Ireland should head to the IMF before other countires beat them to it. 


The only good thing is that at least the truth is getting out. 
In the UK it is still being covered up and it will be just as bad.

[Bogball XV]

5. George Lee was on RTE this morning. He said, live on air, that the €7B ILP/Anglo transaction was FRAUD. As far as he's concerned a deception was perpetrated on the market and a civil case by share holders is a cert. It's a HUGE deal, we've actually got the banks coming clean now in the form of AIB and BOI on what's on their books and with the recap it should help boost their shares. Currently they are BOTH down 11 and 3 % respectively .
Get the pikes and pitchforks ready

Didn't hear that but when I saw the new facts today that's what I thought - there is no other description for it.

[FermGael]

Brown is getting some grilling at the moment. Nearly over
here's the link http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7884877.stm

Admits that he did not know that the FSA had reservations about HBOS even though he appointed the former head of HBOS as the financial regulator. 
The left hand does not know what the right hand is doing.

[stephenite]

b**tards should be locked up -

Should be - but is there any chance it will actually happen?

[Barna Bee]

Brown is getting some grilling at the moment. Nearly over
here's the link http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7884877.stm

Admits that he did not know that the FSA had reservations about HBOS even though he appointed the former head of HBOS as the financial regulator. 
The left hand does not know what the right hand is doing.

FermGael, you appear to be taking some solace in the idea that the UK banking troubles are worse or even more dispicable then anything that is happeneing in Ireland.

Much as I hate to say it and burst your bubble at the same time......

Ireland ...it's politics and culture and antics have long been the joke of Europe ....no real investtor/ heavy investor would touch an Irish company on the irish stiock exchange.Soon it will be down graded by all the rating agencies too and rasiing further funds on int market will cost you all a fortune.

Folks ....this is the start of a complete meltdown ...Iceland ....at least they have fish

Ireland is in a far worse position then the UK and has no weapons/resources to get it'self out of this mess. the UK manages itself and is a G7economy , however bad it gets it won't be like Ireland.

Ireland has long been living way beyond it's means and has the highest dept per capita in the world (well almost)

What has come to light in the irish banking system over the past few days is very very shocking ....if this was the UK/US people would resign/ be sacked /fall on their sword. The frighteneing thing about it all in Ireland is that nobody will go to gaol, nobody will be prosecuted but the tax payer will be milled for gernertions .

This cute hoor culture is now coming home to roost.

[Rossfan]

Lads this is just absolutely crazy/scary stuff.

Ireland as a country is stuffed.  The debt being talked about here is crazy.
The Politicians sat and watched it happen. Anybody that predicted this at the time was ridiculed for being negative. 

The politicians encouraged it never mind watch it happen.
The few people who timidly said that the economy might be in trouble as it was all a building bubble on borrowed money were savaged as "left wing pinkos"(Fcukhead McCreevy) and "whingers and moaners"(Areshole Ahern).
Now when we need the people to spend money to at least keep a consumer economy ticking for a while..they can't because they are so overborrowed.
But the question is where did the FFBuilders and FFDevelopers put all the money they get?
Why cant that be used to recapitalise banks?

[Declan]

Recently we had a European country which was very similar to our own.

The government lied persistently to their own people
The rich escaped taxes
The poor carried the can.
The political leadership was so detached they lived in Gold palaces

Their Central Bank and Government was a cesspit of corruption

What is the difference between Ireland and Nicolae Ceauşescu's Romania,

[FermGael]

FermGael, you appear to be taking some solace in the idea that the UK banking troubles are worse or even more dispicable then anything that is happeneing in Ireland.

Much as I hate to say it and burst your bubble at the same time......

Ireland ...it's politics and culture and antics have long been the joke of Europe ....no real investtor/ heavy investor would touch an Irish company on the irish stiock exchange.Soon it will be down graded by all the rating agencies too and rasiing further funds on int market will cost you all a fortune.

Folks ....this is the start of a complete meltdown ...Iceland ....at least they have fish

Ireland is in a far worse position then the UK and has no weapons/resources to get it'self out of this mess. the UK manages itself and is a G7economy , however bad it gets it won't be like Ireland.

Ireland has long been living way beyond it's means and has the highest dept per capita in the world (well almost)

What has come to light in the irish banking system over the past few days is very very shocking ....if this was the UK/US people would resign/ be sacked /fall on their sword. The frighteneing thing about it all in Ireland is that nobody will go to gaol, nobody will be prosecuted but the tax payer will be milled for gernertions .

This cute hoor culture is now coming home to roost.

I would have to say i disagree with you.  Was listening to Brown there now. 
What was one of his solutions??   The housing market should be re stimulated.  There is still demand.
HOW can there still be demand for houses when the are hugely overpriced and unemployment is kicking in
Thats what got us here in the first place.  All over the world.  He has not learnt the lesson.

They are no longer a G7 economy.  I'm sorry but those days are long gone.

They are going to print money.  That is one of the solutions being touted.  Seriously!!!  Germany, 1930's, Hyperinflation, Hilter anybody
The UK are trying to force people to spend because interest rates are so low.
what are people doing??  Saving even more
Things are bad in the UK, you just have not seen the extent of it.
It is a much more multi cultural society than Ireland and you will see racism of the most extreme kind appearing when things really get bad.
We have already seen a small example of that with the Italian's in the North of england

This recession will hit the middle classes all over the world.  Thats why it is so serious!!
Previous recessions have only the the working class.  They were OK!!!!
This one will see solicitor's ,engineer's out of work. 
That's why there is a panic.

The few people who timidly said that the economy might be in trouble as it was all a building bubble on borrowed money were savaged as "left wing pinkos"(Fcukhead McCreevy) and "whingers and moaners"(Areshole Ahern).

Ross i am sorry but McCreevy and more so Ahern are as much to blame, if not more so than anybody else.
If they were that worried about the building bubble then they would have done something about it.
Where is all the money from previous Budget surpluses went??
Did it not dawn on the 2 of them to may put some away for a rainy day??
Nope, they spent it all

[Bogball XV]

But the question is where did the FFBuilders and FFDevelopers put all the money they get?
Why cant that be used to recapitalise banks?

It can't be used to bail out anything because it didn't ever exist in the first place!!
The developers and builders (and they're not all fat cats, most were normal guys who we all know, trying to turn a decent living) committed the cardinal error of not stopping when they were ahead, mostly to avoid having to pay tax, these guys went out and bid ever increasing amounts (of banks and their own money) for pieces of land that are now worth a small fraction of what they paid.
In theory then landowners should have a few quid left and they should be the ultimate beneficiaries, if they were sensible they paid their 20% CGT, if not they reinvested in more land (bad idea).  So, lets pretend they're sensible, they've got essentially 80% of what the developer paid them, what do they do?  Talk to a financial advisor?  Put the money in the bank and take their 3% or 4% interest (whilst inflation is roaring away at 5/6%)?  Invest their money in a nicely structured portfolio giving them income and the opportunity of financial gain? 
If they took the latter option, their original investment is probably now worth even less than the value of the land bank they sold to the developer.
Obviously this is hypothetical, but I have rumours that the beneficiary of one very profile residential sale in Dublin did exactly that.

Essentially what I'm saying is that much of the wealth that we thought was in Ireland has now been destroyed, it wasn't ever real wealth anyway and had been created only because of the global credit bubble.

Also regarding the UK, it will suffer for a while, but it is in a much better position than Ireland to cope, it has a large indigenous population, it has resources that the rest of the world want and need, it has control over its own economy and whilst many won't agree with me, I think Brown is reasonably competent.

[Donagh]

I'm not defending Brown FermGael , but there may be a few things you are overlooking.

What was one of his solutions??   The housing market should be re stimulated.  There is still demand.
HOW can there still be demand for houses when the are hugely overpriced and unemployment is kicking in
Thats what got us here in the first place.  All over the world.  He has not learnt the lesson.

You may be confusing the situation in Ireland (north and south) with Britain. They did not see the same levels of house price inflation as we got over here and indeed there is demand for housing there as is there is here in the north of Ireland.

They are no longer a G7 economy.  I'm sorry but those days are long gone.

There are still members of the 'G7' which is a much better place to be than Ireland who is not.

They are going to print money.  That is one of the solutions being touted.  Seriously!!!  Germany, 1930's, Hyperinflation, Hilter anybody

Printing money will weaken sterling but at the moment that is not the major concern. Hyperinflation is not always the end result of printing money - all capitalist economies do it to different degrees all the time. Also don't forget the major concern for the Brits at the moment is deflation.

The UK are trying to force people to spend because interest rates are so low.
what are people doing??  Saving even more
Things are bad in the UK, you just have not seen the extent of it.

They are trying to get people to spend to get money moving around and prop up the economy which is dying because there is no money moving.

[FermGael]

Donagh i think you have mis interpreted me here.
I agree that there still is a demand for housing.  There is no doubt about that.
I am looking for a house but i am not prepared to pay over 4 times my salary to get one.
Prices for houses in both ireland and The UK need to lower.

Both goverments are taking about getting banks to forgo repossessions for 12 months.
This is only going to make the problem worse in the long run IMO.
I decided not to buy because property was massively over valued.
I realized that i could lose on my investment.  Everyone who buys a house takes that risk.

Surely reposessions will sort this out alot quicker and let some sort of equity and liquidity back into the system.
I know its harsh and there are real people and families involved here but thats my opinion.

Interest rates cuts have not worked.  People are refusing to spend.
What about raising interest rates, therfore increasing the capital in banks enabling them to deal with there toxic debts and lend out again at sensible levels??
No that would hit the middle class fella who has 2 properties on interest only.  How could he afford the extra payments??

It may help to be in the G7 and it may be a better place than Ireland but at least Ireland has a young population that may help it deal effectively with this crisis.
Its the one hope the country has.

[orangeman]

Negative inflation for first time since 1960
Thursday, 12 February 2009 13:38
Official figures show that consumer prices fell slightly in January compared with the same month last year.

The Central Statistics Office said there was an annual rate of -0.1%. Consumer prices in January decreased by 1.7% from December. The CSO says the last time there was negative annual inflation was in 1960.

A breakdown showed that prices of clothing and footwear tumbled by 13% in January due to the winter sales, while lower mortgage repayments and falls in petrol and diesel prices also contributed to the overall drop.

AdvertisementThe housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels category showed a monthly fall of 7%, due to the effect of ECB interest rate cuts and a fall in home heating oil prices. Transport costs fell by 0.8%, while household equipment prices dropped by 2.6%.

But increases in health insurance and car insurance premiums pushed prices of miscellaneous goods and services up 4.6%.

The annual rate of inflation for services was 1.3% in January, but the annual rate for goods was -1.6%. The EU harmonised inflation rate, which excludes mortgage repayments, was 1.1%.

Goodbody's Dermot O'Leary said the annual rate of inflation was likely to remain negative for the next 12 months at least. He said that, in January, the main reason for the significant fall in consumer prices was falling mortgage interest costs.

But a note from Davy said that, excluding mortgages, the rest of the consumer basket actually increased by 0.4% in price in January when seasonal factors such as the January sales are accounted for. 'We forecast that prices will decline hugely in 2009 as interest falls further and the recession bites. The CPI may drop by 3.9%,' it said.

Ulster Bank's Pat McArdle also said he now expect the CPI to remain negative for all of 2009, going below minus 4% in several months.

[muppet]

From other forums etc

1. You really couldn't make this up, the €6bn figure wasn't made up this morning BOI must have known this, then why not tell the Government that prior to the recap. Whatever else, it may (I doubt) have spurred the Dept of Finance to seek other guarantees to protect our investment. They have given the timeline up to March 11, as sure as ducks lay eggs there will be an impairment charge of €2bn pa starting this March accounts. Its in the common domain now, the auditors will insist on it, so bye bye 8% "nailed on coupon".They are lying again, they continue to lie and undermine this country with lies and fraud, they are in effect "traitors".
2. Lenihan told us on Morning Ireland this am that he was aware (for a change) of the BOI figures before the recap announcement.
3. If they have to write off 10% of the book now, what will the have to write off over the next two years, as we race to 500k+ on the dole, and everyone else taking significant paycuts, as shopping center units and offices empty out. The worst of this crisis, is still ahead of us
4.Anglo BORROWED the money on the money markets, and lodged it with IL&P.L&P then transferred it to a subdivision of IL&P - their fund management division, who lodged it as a DEPOSIT (not a normal interbank transfer) to make it look like fund managers had faith in Anglo, and to make their End of Year deposit sheet look in the black, when in fact was money they had just borrowed.It's like you borrowing from AIB, giving the money to your mum, who transfers it to you, and then you going to BofI and asking for a loan saying "Look - I've got loads of savings!"
5. George Lee was on RTE this morning. He said, live on air, that the €7B ILP/Anglo transaction was FRAUD. As far as he's concerned a deception was perpetrated on the market and a civil case by share holders is a cert. It's a HUGE deal, we've actually got the banks coming clean now in the form of AIB and BOI on what's on their books and with the recap it should help boost their shares. Currently they are BOTH down 11 and 3 % respectively .
6. Another 1000 jobs gone out in the airport.

Get the pikes and pitchforks ready

I heard Pat Rabbitte last night calling for a cross party investigation. I have great respect for my countyman but he is way off this time. The last thing we need is politics involved where the best we could hope for is a 10 year €300 million tribunal that achieves nothing.

This should be investigated at the very least by the fraud squad and given that there may be some very powerful Irish people implicated maybe we should consider bringing in a foreign agency specialising in corporate fraud.

The thing though is most of what is coming out from the banks at the moment is only being revealed because of the financial meltdown. This is operation normal in Irish big business in my experience.