The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)

[whiskeysteve]

Any suggestions for what it's new name will be?

Ghetto Irish Bank

Gung-ho Irish Bank

Craggy Island Bank

Motto: That money was only resting in my account

Sean Fitzpatrick should get a Golden Cleric

[Bogball XV]

some remarkably prescient posts here back in sept/oct, maybe Lenno should have spent more time reading our opinions rather than letting Sean Fitzpatrick tell him what he should do next.

[Croí na hÉireann]

The fact this was announced yesterday is worrying. Shane Ross on Prime Time last night said the reasons behind the share collapse in Anglo were to be made public today before the governments intervention. This will now not happen. Very disturbing...

[Declan]

No - the issue is more than that and I look northwards, towards Fermanagh/Cavan, for my Dick Dastardly in this affair.

Indeed - SS - Was 1.5 billion and counting from what I heard.

[Shamrock Shore]

It's all about dominoes.

Anglo..........Quinn.....Gubbermint........State

That was a scenatio that nobody could even consider so lads, we are now own a bank.

The Stickies will be happy 

[muppet]

It's all about dominoes.

Anglo..........Quinn.....Gubbermint........State

That was a scenatio that nobody could even consider so lads, we are now own a bank.

The Stickies will be happy 

Actually we have just bought a huge subprime financial product, which brings us nicely back to the start of the circle.

[orangeman]

Will the government seek to run it in the long term or try and wind it down / imalgamate it with some of the bigger boys ?

[bcarrier]

SS missing a link or two. Quinn still has assets ...pity some of the developers. Plenty of horses sold lately.

[FermGael]

For those thinking about buying a house.  Taken from the irish times
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2009/0113/1231738220759.html?via=mr

Warning that house prices may fall by 80%
In this section »

LAURA SLATTERY

HOUSING MARKET: IRELAND WILL see more demolition than construction of houses over the next decade, as the economy struggles to recover from the collapse of the housing market and the emergence of "zombie" banks, UCD economist Morgan Kelly told the conference.

In a presentation that drew several collective intakes of breath, Mr Kelly predicted that house prices would fall by 80 per cent from peak to trough in real terms.

"Construction, but not demolition, of residential and commercial property will fall to zero for the foreseeable future," he said.

Low levels of education among those employed in construction – where worker numbers peaked at about 280,000 – meant retraining would not be straightforward.

Recovery will be slow: "It has taken us 10 years to get into this situation – it will in all likelihood take us 10 years to get out of it."

Mr Kelly said he had been hailed as being extremely prescient as a result of his warnings in relation to the property bubble, when in fact he and a handful of other "amateurs" were merely stating what was obvious.

Sparing no blushes, he said professional economists in the Central Bank and the Economic and Social Research Institute "need to look very closely at their analyses of the Irish economy and figure out what went wrong".

Mr Kelly said Ireland's "reputational capital" had been damaged by "chancers" such as ex-Anglo Irish Bank chairman Seán FitzPatrick, who had been abetted by "buffoons" such as former financial regulator Patrick Neary, Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan and the Taoiseach.

In discussing the €110 billion given in loans to developers, Mr Kelly said a typical regional housing collapse in the US saw banks sustain a 20 per cent loss on these loans, but the narrowness of the Irish market increased the risk of "substantially larger losses" for Irish banks.

"The guarantees of Anglo and [Irish] Nationwide liabilities have a strong chance of being called in over the next 21 months," he said. Extending the Government guarantee to these two financial institutions was "extraordinarily unwise" and could produce losses that the State cannot afford to repay.

The global financial crisis may have been positive for the Irish economy as it "stopped us dragging ourselves even deeper into our hole," he said. "If it had taken another year or two, we would have ended up in an Icelandic-shaped hole, which is not to say that we won't end up in one."

Mr Kelly said the Government should abolish stamp duty on property, compile proper price and quantity statistics and restore competitiveness through a public sector pay cut of 10 per cent.

A paper by TCD economist Patrick Honohan on the banking crisis argued that capital injections in the banks were a prerequisite for recovery. The financial regulator needed to decide now which banks had systemic importance to the economy – in other words, are "too big to fail", and which are "zombie" banks.

"The goal is to avoid the continued operation of an undercapitalised, error-prone bank with a flawed business model and administrative practices, a problematic customer base and a compromised management facing distorted incentives," the paper stated.

[muppet]

For those thinking about buying a house.  Taken from the irish times
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2009/0113/1231738220759.html?via=mr

Warning that house prices may fall by 80%
In this section »

LAURA SLATTERY

HOUSING MARKET: IRELAND WILL see more demolition than construction of houses over the next decade, as the economy struggles to recover from the collapse of the housing market and the emergence of "zombie" banks, UCD economist Morgan Kelly told the conference.

In a presentation that drew several collective intakes of breath, Mr Kelly predicted that house prices would fall by 80 per cent from peak to trough in real terms.

"Construction, but not demolition, of residential and commercial property will fall to zero for the foreseeable future," he said.

Low levels of education among those employed in construction – where worker numbers peaked at about 280,000 – meant retraining would not be straightforward.

Recovery will be slow: "It has taken us 10 years to get into this situation – it will in all likelihood take us 10 years to get out of it."

Mr Kelly said he had been hailed as being extremely prescient as a result of his warnings in relation to the property bubble, when in fact he and a handful of other "amateurs" were merely stating what was obvious.

Sparing no blushes, he said professional economists in the Central Bank and the Economic and Social Research Institute "need to look very closely at their analyses of the Irish economy and figure out what went wrong".

Mr Kelly said Ireland's "reputational capital" had been damaged by "chancers" such as ex-Anglo Irish Bank chairman Seán FitzPatrick, who had been abetted by "buffoons" such as former financial regulator Patrick Neary, Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan and the Taoiseach.

In discussing the €110 billion given in loans to developers, Mr Kelly said a typical regional housing collapse in the US saw banks sustain a 20 per cent loss on these loans, but the narrowness of the Irish market increased the risk of "substantially larger losses" for Irish banks.

"The guarantees of Anglo and [Irish] Nationwide liabilities have a strong chance of being called in over the next 21 months," he said. Extending the Government guarantee to these two financial institutions was "extraordinarily unwise" and could produce losses that the State cannot afford to repay.

The global financial crisis may have been positive for the Irish economy as it "stopped us dragging ourselves even deeper into our hole," he said. "If it had taken another year or two, we would have ended up in an Icelandic-shaped hole, which is not to say that we won't end up in one."

Mr Kelly said the Government should abolish stamp duty on property, compile proper price and quantity statistics and restore competitiveness through a public sector pay cut of 10 per cent.

A paper by TCD economist Patrick Honohan on the banking crisis argued that capital injections in the banks were a prerequisite for recovery. The financial regulator needed to decide now which banks had systemic importance to the economy – in other words, are "too big to fail", and which are "zombie" banks.

"The goal is to avoid the continued operation of an undercapitalised, error-prone bank with a flawed business model and administrative practices, a problematic customer base and a compromised management facing distorted incentives," the paper stated.

I had a very pleasant weekend, until I read that.

[muppet]

[Bogball XV]

BOI down to 60c after initially rising this morning.  Even more worryingly, AIB have just collapsed by 60c to 80c - what's the story?

[Declan]

BOI down to 60c after initially rising this morning.  Even more worryingly, AIB have just collapsed by 60c to 80c - what's the story?

BZ WBK's Value Just Below that of AIB
• Following Friday's 25% decline in Allied Irish Banks share price, its c. 70.5% stake in Polish subsidiary BZ WBK is valued at €1.2bn, just below the Group's €1.3bn market
capitalisation.

AIB's stake in M&T, US regional bank, was valued at €850m on Friday.

This implies the market is placing a negative valuation of c. €750m on the rump of its business (ROI, UK and Capital Markets divisions). However concerns about the
outlook for impairments and capital adequacy have heightened following the nationalisation of Anglo Irish Bank. We remain cautious on Allied Irish Banks because
there is a risk that impairments will be significantly higher than our forecasts and the bank will be forced to raise capital additional to the amounts already signalled.

[muppet]

Basically because the Government did nothing until Anglo was in the final phase of collapsing, no investor has any faith in our banks.

Will our other banks last the week?

Tune in to The Muppet Show next week to find out.

[orangeman]

Basically because the Government did nothing until Anglo was in the final phase of collapsing, no investor has any faith in our banks.

Will our other banks last the week?Tune in to The Muppet Show next week to find out.

less than 6 months ago, someone on here suggested that at least one of the banks was in deep shit, but that suggestion was laughed off as being ridiculous - now with Anglo effectively gone under, who is next ?