The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)

[muppet]

How much further down can the markets go?

Spotting when markets have reached the bottom is a tricky and risky process.

Many traders believe in the idea of capitulation, which broadly means a market surrender.

This is when investors are prepared to get out of the market at any price because they have given up all hope of making money from their shares.

It is often marked by panic-selling and very high volumes of transactions.

The idea is that after capitulation you reach a point at which the last investor who is desperate to get out of shares and move into supposedly less risky assets has sold out.

Once there is a widespread belief that the bottom has been reached, bargain-hunters pile in and the market recovers.

Have we reached the bottom of the market then?

It is really difficult to say.

Some people think we're nearly there.

"We have got to the capitulation stage where people are taking the combination of the perfect storm of a banking system in crisis and a global economy that is slowing quite dramatically," said Justin Urquhart-Stewart at Seven Investment Management.

The trouble is, some people reckoned we'd reached that point earlier this week.

Some declared the market was at the bottom last week.

There were those who declared capitulation had been reached on 15 September when the Dow fell 504 points in a day.

Capitulation is easy to spot in retrospect but the people who recognise it accurately at the time get very rich.

So once we reach the bottom there will be a total recovery on the FTSE then?

Probably not. The falls are not just about the perilous state of the banking system, although there are plenty of banks in the FTSE 100 index and they have been dragging it down.

The falls also reflect the view that many of the world's biggest economies are going into recession.

The oil price has fallen below $80 a barrel because it is thought that as economies slow there will be less oil used and the same argument goes for copper or coal.

That means that there is likely to be less demand for the products of the big global commodities companies that dominate the index.

Purely with respect to investing a typical bear market is volatile, full of bounces followed by sharp falls and false dawns. (I accept we have never seen anything quite as volatile as this.)

A bull market, if we ever see one again, is typically steady growth. Not the 500 point rises in a day that we see at the moment.

If you are thinking of getting in I'd wait a while. This market is for experts and lunatics.

[orangeman]

How much further down can the markets go?

Spotting when markets have reached the bottom is a tricky and risky process.

Many traders believe in the idea of capitulation, which broadly means a market surrender.

This is when investors are prepared to get out of the market at any price because they have given up all hope of making money from their shares.

It is often marked by panic-selling and very high volumes of transactions.

The idea is that after capitulation you reach a point at which the last investor who is desperate to get out of shares and move into supposedly less risky assets has sold out.

Once there is a widespread belief that the bottom has been reached, bargain-hunters pile in and the market recovers.

Have we reached the bottom of the market then?

It is really difficult to say.

Some people think we're nearly there.

"We have got to the capitulation stage where people are taking the combination of the perfect storm of a banking system in crisis and a global economy that is slowing quite dramatically," said Justin Urquhart-Stewart at Seven Investment Management.

The trouble is, some people reckoned we'd reached that point earlier this week.

Some declared the market was at the bottom last week.

There were those who declared capitulation had been reached on 15 September when the Dow fell 504 points in a day.

Capitulation is easy to spot in retrospect but the people who recognise it accurately at the time get very rich.

So once we reach the bottom there will be a total recovery on the FTSE then?

Probably not. The falls are not just about the perilous state of the banking system, although there are plenty of banks in the FTSE 100 index and they have been dragging it down.

The falls also reflect the view that many of the world's biggest economies are going into recession.

The oil price has fallen below $80 a barrel because it is thought that as economies slow there will be less oil used and the same argument goes for copper or coal.

That means that there is likely to be less demand for the products of the big global commodities companies that dominate the index.

Purely with respect to investing a typical bear market is volatile, full of bounces followed by sharp falls and false dawns. (I accept we have never seen anything quite as volatile as this.)

A bull market, if we ever see one again, is typically steady growth. Not the 500 point rises in a day that we see at the moment.

If you are thinking of getting in I'd wait a while. This market is for experts and lunatics.

Accepted - but there's bound to be huge growth over the next copule of years after the bottom has been reached ?

[muppet]

Some expert said this week that we had reached the bottom - it seems now there is no bottom !

"The bottom is the new top."

The US markets, which open shortly, better not fall or else it could all over.

[orangeman]

Some expert said this week that we had reached the bottom - it seems now there is no bottom !

"The bottom is the new top."

The US markets, which open shortly, better not fall or else it could all over.

Dwon 8% at this stage - only open a wee while - long time to 5 o'clock US time !

[give her dixie]

With the FTSE down 9% today, and the Dow in bother, Monday will be an interesting day on the Stock Exchanges around the world.
No doubt there will be some more promises by Governments over the weekend.

[muppet]

With the FTSE down 9% today, and the Dow in bother, Monday will be an interesting day on the Stock Exchanges around the world.
No doubt there will be some more promises by Governments over the weekend.

The weekends are becoming scarier than the trading days. Banks tend to be nationalised at the weekend to prevent them failing during the week.

Its starting to affect industries now. GM, Ford May Face Bankruptcy on Slowdown, S&P Says

I'd hate to think what the last 3 weeks has done to our property market.

All together now....."Always look on the bright side of life..........do do.......do do......do do do do do do....."

[give her dixie]

Looks like the RBS and HBOS will be applying for part of the £50 billion Governmenmt package in the morning.
No doubt another rocky day ahead on the stock exchange...............

[muppet]

Depending on which paper you read people earning over €50,000 will have a the PRSI cap removed (extra 4% tax) plus a 2% income tax increase on the health levy (you would think they would be too mortified to even mention that they tax us for health as a stand alone) and a halving of the tax relief on pensions which sounds alright except it means that they will have to double their contributions to get the same, now decimated pension.

That, if it happens, represents up a 6% tax rise and removes the pension they thought they had. That sort of action could be the final nail in the half buried coffin that is our property market.

Now would a reasonable place to start be to leave PRSI as it is but to have civil servants pay it as well? But then they write the budget don't they?

[Hound]

Depending on which paper you read people earning over €50,000 will have a the PRSI cap removed (extra 4% tax) plus a 2% income tax increase on the health levy (you would think they would be too mortified to even mention that they tax us for health as a stand alone) and a halving of the tax relief on pensions which sounds alright except it means that they will have to double their contributions to get the same, now decimated pension.

That, if it happens, represents up a 6% tax rise and removes the pension they thought they had. That sort of action could be the final nail in the half buried coffin that is our property market.

Now would a reasonable place to start be to leave PRSI as it is but to have civil servants pay it as well? But then they write the budget don't they?

6% tax rise would be too much IMO. A lot of mid to high earners might start to look at going abroad, which would hit the economy more. Of course if the whole world is putting up taxes....

I had heard a 1% increase (a new levy of some sort) and an extension of the PRSI ceiling (rather than removing).

Fuel, tobacco and drink all to get hit hard on duties.

Politicians to get a pay cut, somewhere between 5% and 10%.

[muppet]

Depending on which paper you read people earning over €50,000 will have a the PRSI cap removed (extra 4% tax) plus a 2% income tax increase on the health levy (you would think they would be too mortified to even mention that they tax us for health as a stand alone) and a halving of the tax relief on pensions which sounds alright except it means that they will have to double their contributions to get the same, now decimated pension.

That, if it happens, represents up a 6% tax rise and removes the pension they thought they had. That sort of action could be the final nail in the half buried coffin that is our property market.

Now would a reasonable place to start be to leave PRSI as it is but to have civil servants pay it as well? But then they write the budget don't they?

6% tax rise would be too much IMO. A lot of mid to high earners might start to look at going abroad, which would hit the economy more. Of course if the whole world is putting up taxes....

I had heard a 1% increase (a new levy of some sort) and an extension of the PRSI ceiling (rather than removing).

Fuel, tobacco and drink all to get hit hard on duties.

Politicians to get a pay cut, somewhere between 5% and 10%.

I suppose it is not unusual to hear of terrible predictions pre-budget so that when the real thing comes it doesn't seem to bad.

I hope so. 

[Rossfan]

the half buried coffin that is our property market.

Now would a reasonable place to start be to leave PRSI as it is but to have civil servants pay it ...

Everybody employed in the public sector since 1995 pay full rate PRSI and get the entitlements also.

As for the property market --  that same "market" is the cause of all the troubles worldwide and especially in Ireland.
Most independent analysts reckon house prices will fall to 50% or even less of the asking prices at the end of 2006.
After all to sell houses in normal societies the price has to bear some realistic relation to average incomes- unlike the fantasy world (fuelled by Govt,Lenders,Builders and Estate Agents) we had here since the mid Nineties.

[muppet]

Everybody employed in the public sector since 1995 pay full rate PRSI and get the entitlements also.

That is incorrect.

[Rossfan]

It is not incorrect. It mightnt suit your agenda but  from the Dept of Social etc etc website

PRSI Contribution Classes


In general, PRSI contribution classes are decided by the nature of a persons employment and the amount of the employee's gross reckonable earnings in any week. Most workers pay PRSI contributions at Class A and are covered for all social welfare benefits and pensions. However, people who earn less than €38 per week (from ALL employments) are covered for Occupational Injuries Benefits only - Class J. Some workers in the public sector do not have cover for all benefits and pensions and they pay a modified PRSI contribution - Class B, C, D or H.








Civil and Public Sector Employments
PRSI Class B
People within CLASS B:

Permanent and pensionable Civil Servants, Registered Doctors and Dentists employed in the Civil Service and Gardaí, recruited prior to 6 April, 1995.


PRSI Class C
People within CLASS C:

Commissioned Army Officers and members of the Army Nursing Service, 1recruited prior to 6 April, 1995.



PRSI Class D
People within CLASS D:

Permanent and pensionable employees in the public service other than those mentioned in Classes B and C, recruited prior to 6 April, 1995.

[muppet]

It is not incorrect. It mightnt suit your agenda but  from the Dept of Social etc etc website

PRSI Contribution Classes


In general, PRSI contribution classes are decided by the nature of a persons employment and the amount of the employee's gross reckonable earnings in any week. Most workers pay PRSI contributions at Class A and are covered for all social welfare benefits and pensions. However, people who earn less than €38 per week (from ALL employments) are covered for Occupational Injuries Benefits only - Class J. Some workers in the public sector do not have cover for all benefits and pensions and they pay a modified PRSI contribution - Class B, C, D or H.








Civil and Public Sector Employments
PRSI Class B
People within CLASS B:

Permanent and pensionable Civil Servants, Registered Doctors and Dentists employed in the Civil Service and Gardaí, recruited prior to 6 April, 1995.


PRSI Class C
People within CLASS C:

Commissioned Army Officers and members of the Army Nursing Service, 1recruited prior to 6 April, 1995.



PRSI Class D
People within CLASS D:

Permanent and pensionable employees in the public service other than those mentioned in Classes B and C, recruited prior to 6 April, 1995.

I dont have any agenda.

I read your post as saying that the Public service had paid PRSI since 1995. I knew that to be incorrect because I had pints with 2 who dont pay PRSI only a few days ago.

What I now see is that those recruited since 1995 pay PRSI fully. Being 'employed' can be interpreted 2 ways:
a) being recruited into a job
or
b) in active employment.

[orangeman]

European and Asian markets have rallied in response to efforts by world leaders to end the recent financial turmoil.

London's FTSE 100, France's Cac 40 and Germany's Dax index all jumped more than 6%, tracking earlier gains on Asian markets.

Major central banks said they would offer financial institutions an unlimited amount of short-term dollar loans to help stem the crisis.

EU leaders said on Sunday no big bank would be be allowed to fail.

UK shares got a boost after the government said it would inject up to £37bn of taxpayer cash into Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), Lloyds TSB and HBOS.

The FTSE 100 index was up 268.56 points, or 6.83%, at 4,200.62 points.