The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)

[the Deel Rover]

that was me deel rover. i am only 26 but i remember when it was all about the customer even if service was still slow u did your best for the customer, now its about cross selling as many products and making as much as you can from customer (that word isn't really used anymore either internally). glad i have a yr off might extend to 2 years and stay in Oz.

on the gold front, OVOCA GOLD are up 200% this morning. were 0.02 at start 0.06 now. will it go further or come back???

Farr play to ya php you were dead right to get away for a while i know a few lads that have come back from oz recently and the wished to fcul they stayed away for another while. Whats the job situation like over there is it hard to get work ?

[Bogball XV]

Lone Shark,

I edited a couple of comments in there. There has been no proof of criminal behaviour by Ahern, so it's all allegations at this stage until something definitive comes out. There is certainly no proof for the statement you made at the start of your 4th paragraph. And we all no Bertie is a good GAA man, so he might read it and sue our arses.

He has admitted himself that he has had to make a settlement with the revenue, afaik tax evasion is a criminal offence.

[Bogball XV]

that was me deel rover. i am only 26 but i remember when it was all about the customer even if service was still slow u did your best for the customer, now its about cross selling as many products and making as much as you can from customer (that word isn't really used anymore either internally). glad i have a yr off might extend to 2 years and stay in Oz.

on the gold front, OVOCA GOLD are up 200% this morning. were 0.02 at start 0.06 now. will it go further or come back???

I think gold might be overdone at this stage, lead would be better (you can always smelt it into bullets ).

[PadraicHenryPearse]

not really working yet. only gone 5 mths. i am temping (2 mths) in a mining compnay before travelling again, looking at spreadsheets all day but its easy and the pay is ok although the dollar has gone from .66 to .52 against the euro since i've come over.

Loads of jobs in Perth anway. I had loads of interviews lined up but got the first job i applied and probably the best/easier for the best money. Avoiding going home as i'll have to face up to my Mortgage and full-time employment again. Luckily i have .8 above ecb for the life of the mortgage which helps alot while i'm away as the rent almost covers the interest only part.

[Lone Shark]

Fair balls to ye Lane Shark. I'm f**king sick of the poxy ba*t*rds up to their eye balls in shit. The problem isn't that we just ignore them the problem is that we all want a piece of the pie.

It's too late to try a FG Government, what this country needs is a good hard ass dictatorship. 10 years of taking no shit and oweing no favours to anyone. The oposition and the Government are both cut from the same political cloth (if not the same moral cloth). It would take a FG Government 100 years to put an end to the bad practice and corruption ingrained into all the Irish systems. If there was a FG Government with a strong FF oposition the delayling and cost in accountability (as seen with the tribunals were there is no accountability) could be endless. A decent dictator would lock them up were they belong. 10 years and then an overthrow by the people were we can actually feel like we are in control of those controlling the country. Anything less will result in a return to today. The poster earlier in the thread who talked about getting armed and heading down Leinster St could be our only hope.

I actually went through this phase of being sickened by it all as well. I went through all these thoughts in my head, but the truth is - and much as I hate to say it because most people I meet in this country are damn fine people - as a nation, collectively, we want things this way. I'd love to live in a fairer society with respect for the rule of law, a society where crime against your fellow citizen, be it assault or fraud, is harshly punished. However democracy is the collective will of the people. It's like when I used to work in the bookies - people talk about how they want horse racing to be cleaner, but they don't - they just want to be the one on the inside track. So it is with democracy. We pretend we want to live in a fair society where no stroking and dodging the system goes on, but by our votes it's clear that what we actually want is just to be the guy who gets the local councillor to rezone their four acres. We want to be the guy who gets the job by way of a nod and wink. We want to be the guy who earns €5k a year tax free doing nixers. We say we want a democracy, but in fact, by our votes it's clear that we want the perpetuation of the gombeen kleptocracy in which we live.

I hate it, and I'll always go against it, but the people have no right to be wrong, so to speak. Such is democracy.

Regarding the dictatorship thing, the problem with that is that it's always another guy who's doing it rather than you. You're bound to disagree at some stage, and unfortunately when you do, then the lack of accountability or mandate really sticks in the craw.

Loan Shark - makes a whole lot of sense  but buying gold now at inflated prices

That depends. It's inflated relative to where it was two years ago, but is it really inflated relative to where it should be. Here's my thinking, laid bare for those who want to come out and argue with me.

Gold and silver are the only truly globally accepted forms of currency in existence. Everything else is in theory backed by them to a certain degree at some point. However we've seen that in the US, they're bailing out the banks to the tune of $700bn. The UK just wrote their own bailout yesterday, same principle. The EU is doing it piece by piece for now, but you can be damn sure that their bailout will come too. All over the world the demand for money (in the economic sense) is at it's highest, while the solution appears to be rolling the printing presses (in a manner of speaking) and REDUCING the cost. All to dance to the tune of the beloved markets. In this environment, the value of real money, money that can't be created out of thin air, can only go up. It may have been cheaper a while ago, but to me it's no different to a bookie going up with 10/1 about Kilkenny to win next year's hurling All Ireland. If you went in to bet on it and it was suddenly 5/1, you might feel like you missed out, but on the other hand, you're still getting the best price of a lifetime.

As I write this, I feel very conscious of a fact that needs pointing out here - I am not a financial advisor in any shape or form. I am a former odds compiler turned GAA writer who did a small bit of economics in school and college, and I do take an interest in these matters. These are my thoughts, and my thoughts only. I am acting on them, but if things go pear shaped, it's easy for me to accept it. Here's the different things that can happen, along with my percentage chances of it occuring.

(1) Gold falls in price. Obviously this can happen with any commodity. I personally think that gold is only as low as it is because central banks have been disposing of it in order to keep the price low. Ask any broker and they'll tell you that demand for gold is at an all time high. A strong surge in demand for gold is indicative of a lack of faith in fiat currency, and central banks most certainly don't want that hitting the streets. Bad enough we have no faith in the banks that hold our Euros - imagine we had no faith in the euros themselves? HOWEVER - they cannot do this indefinitely. Central banks sell gold, and the market absolutely gobbles it up every time. I do not consider this likely - my estimation is 20%

(2) Gold holds steady, barely covering the transaction costs at best. This is always possible. Som,e would say it's the most likely, though I don't quite disagree. There is so much turmoil still in the system that something has to happen which should lead to a swing of some sort, but then you never know. My estimation for this is 20%

(3) Gold increases sharply, maybe to around double where it is now. To me, this is by far the most likely scenario. Currencies are being devalued left right and centre, the world has no appetite for high interest rates, so we'll get high inflation instead. Those with savings will take it up the ass while all those people who borrowed more than they can afford get rewarded for their profligacy. The difference is that either way John Doe gets reamed, but with a high mortgage payment, he sees it happening and it's easy to pin the blame on someone - banks, central bank, ECB, someone. With inflation, he notices it too but only some of the time, and it's death by a thousand paper cuts. Above all, there's no obvious bad guy. Politically it's a lot more acceptable, so that's what we'll get. In that environment, those who want to do something about it will engage in the phenomenon known as "flight to quality" - usually commodities. Oil is too speculative for my liking, while Silver has a mahoosive commission attached to buying. Hence Gold. That said, if you could get into silver at anything near the spot price, then there are those who make a good case for the fact that the upside their is so much higher. My guess- 58%.

And now for the other 2%. This is why people always say with investing - put 15% into gold and hope that it doesn't do well. This is the insurance bit, which despite what it may sound like, I think could happen. It's a 50/1 shot, but it's a genuine 50/1 shot.

Something big happens. Saudis stop taking dollars for oil. The Chinese look to cash in their trillion dollars in holdings. The UK, Spain or Italy is bankrupted paying up on one of these guarantees. Anything along those lines. The price of one of the world's major currencies takes a sharp nosedive, and then people get worried. People begin to realise that fractional reserve banking can only, in long run, benefit the banks. People begin to realise that their currency, which they thought was fine, is backed by all sorts of toxic derivatives, T-bills from countries that are going to the wall, and very little real stuff. People want to get out - not quite beans, shotguns and tin foil hats, but you get my drift. The world panics, and they run to the only form of money that mankind has always trusted since day one.

Let's be clear here - I don't think this is likely, and I certainly wouldn't be gloating about my miniscule gold holding if that camee about. However neither do I consider it completely impossible, as our paymasters would have you believe. In this scenario, all the euros in the world aren't worth muck, and also - it's no good having gold certificates when the country in which your gold is stored changes the law not to let any of it leave the country and refunds your investment or some such. Basically, something along the lines of 1933 America happens. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102 In this instance, I want the gold itself. That is why I'm paying a serious premium to take physical delivery of Kruger Rand rather than just buying gold certificates. I may be crazy, but I call it armageddon insurance, and I want it. If I'm wrong, then the world's okay and I can live with that too.

[Lone Shark]

Lone Shark,

I edited a couple of comments in there. There has been no proof of criminal behaviour by Ahern, so it's all allegations at this stage until something definitive comes out. There is certainly no proof for the statement you made at the start of your 4th paragraph. And we all no Bertie is a good GAA man, so he might read it and sue our arses.

Fair enough. I would tend to disagree in the sense that he's put enough stuff on the record at this stage, but there's no point in this board getting brought into bother on account of my rantings.

They're like the hard working lad in the club that was no good under age and doesn't have the right surname. He keeps a low profile at training, and mutterings about him not being worth a shot keep him off the team.

Hmmmm

Nothing personal about this one, I can assure you! Sure we'd have no famous names in our club anyway ... 

having worked in a bank branch, i find this harsh on your average branch or dept. bank Official, i don't see how they are responsibile for this.

) Banks should be told that there are no staff bonuses at any level and no dividends to be paid for as long as this guarantee is in place

otherwise excellent post.

PHP

In about 80% of cases, they're not. I would make the exception for all the small town managers and advisors that advised people to get up to their necks in leveraged debt however. I don't care how much you were incentivised, people were encouraged when trading up to keep the old house, rent it out and borrow off the equity. Thousands of Gardaí, nurses, factory workers and tradesmen suddenly became property speculators, and have had their lives irreversibly FUBARed by some guy chasing an extra hundred euro on his bonus cheque.

However even for the front line staff, my point stands. The business needs to minimise outflows in order to maximise retained earnings and thus capitalisation. It's not nice, but it sure beats the alternative of the bank going bust. Possibly if you wanted to write in some for of employee's equity scheme, to be materialised when the guarantee is lifted and the bank is liquid again, then that would be fair enough. For now the important thing is that the staff still have their jobs.

That's not going to happen, so go buy gold. Do it now. I'm not feckin kidding.

Been thinking about this myself, any tips/links on where to start??? Excellent article by the way...

A few people have PM'ed me over this. To be honest, I don't know a whole lot about it. There are plenty of online brokers who will look after it for you in terms of certificates, which as I've covered in my previous post, would do fine in all but the most apocalyptic scenario. I want the gold itself, so I'm going through Gold.ie. I'm only just underway myself though. It was always in the back of my mind, but this Irish government guarantee finally got the skids under me.

Excellent post Loan Shark, pity we couldnt get someone like you to run the country.

I'm no good at helping ould wans and other constituents get medical cards that they're not entitled to. I'm not what this country wants.

that was me deel rover. i am only 26 but i remember when it was all about the customer even if service was still slow u did your best for the customer, now its about cross selling as many products and making as much as you can from customer (that word isn't really used anymore either internally). glad i have a yr off might extend to 2 years and stay in Oz.

on the gold front, OVOCA GOLD are up 200% this morning. were 0.02 at start 0.06 now. will it go further or come back???

I think gold might be overdone at this stage, lead would be better (you can always smelt it into bullets ).

I've no idea about lead myself, so you could be right. However it's back to that whole "worst case scenario" thing again for me.

[Croí na hÉireann]

That's not going to happen, so go buy gold. Do it now. I'm not feckin kidding.

Been thinking about this myself, any tips/links on where to start??? Excellent article by the way...

A few people have PM'ed me over this. To be honest, I don't know a whole lot about it. There are plenty of online brokers who will look after it for you in terms of certificates, which as I've covered in my previous post, would do fine in all but the most apocalyptic scenario. I want the gold itself, so I'm going through Gold.ie. I'm only just underway myself though. It was always in the back of my mind, but this Irish government guarantee finally got the skids under me.

Thanks for that, gold.ie came straight up on google. Don't think I'd fancy keeping gold in the house though, could always look at safety deposit boxes I suppose... Might do some research into certificates for gold stored in this country. If you're selling shares LS, drop us a line 

[orangeman]

The Irish government has said it will extend its guarantee scheme to some non-Irish owned banks with a major presence in the Republic or Ireland.

Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said the Ulster Bank, First Active, Halifax Bank of Scotland, IIB Bank and Postbank were all eligible for the scheme.

The Ulster Bank - a subsidiary of the Royal Bank of Scotland - had applied to join the scheme.

The 400bn euro guarantee initially covered six Irish banks.

Mr Lenihan said on Thursday he was extending the guarantee to banks with a broad footprint in the Republic's domestic economy.

He said there would be additional limitations to ensure the support covered liabilities in the national economy, as opposed to the Irish subsidiaries and their parent groups.

He said it was another sign of the determination of EU member states to ensure the stability of the banking system.

Meanwhile, most European and Asian shares have rallied after investors absorbed news of a co-ordinated interest rate cut.

The UK bank rescue package boosted financial shares, with HBOS up 30% and Royal Bank of Scotland adding 15%.




IS THIS GOOD OR BAD ?

[pintsofguinness]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7660438.stm

Whoops!

[Down Gael]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7660438.stm

Whoops!

This is going to get really messy. And its always Joe Public who end up paying for it.

[pintsofguinness]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7660438.stm

Whoops!

This is going to get really messy. And its always Joe Public who end up paying for it.

Are they f**king stupid or what though? How long has this crisis been going on and people wondering if savings/deposits would be safe and it never dawned on one of these councils (or the govt who was suppose to be advising them) you know what that 5 million we've got in Iceland may not be safe! Silly c***ts.

[orangeman]

Most people realised last year whenever the Icelandic banks were offering 7.5% for deposits that they had to be in trouble - if it looks and sunds too good, it usually is !

[Donagh]

US debt clock runs out of digits




Until last month, the clock had enough digits to measure US debt levels

The US government's debts have ballooned so badly the National Debt Clock in New York has run out of digits to record the spiralling figure.

The digital counter marks the national debt level, but when that passed the $10 trillion point last month, the sign could not display the full amount.

The board was erected to highlight the $2.7 trillion level of debt in 1989.

The clock's owners say two more zeros will be added, allowing the clock to record a quadrillion dollars of debt.

Douglas Durst, son of the late Seymour Durst - the clock's inventor - hopes to replace the Manhattan clock with its lengthier replacement early next year.

For the time being, the Times Square counter's electronic dollar sign has been replaced with the extra digit required.

For its part, the digital dollar symbol has been supplanted by a cheaper version - perhaps a sign of the times for the American economy.

Some economists believe the $700bn bail-out plan for ailing US financial institutions could send the national debt level to $11 trillion.

[Main Street]

Most people realised last year whenever the Icelandic banks were offering 7.5% for deposits that they had to be in trouble - if it looks and sunds too good, it usually is !

Not really, I don't think the savings accounts were more than 6.5% which are not much more than other offered savings accounts like the some in the Post Office.
Those savings accounts were recommended by the Finance Regulator and gauranteed by the State.
People were not greedy using these accounts, most of them were people who trusted their own Financial regulator to use these approved and insured accounts.
Only in the foot note of a sub paragraph with the aid of a  mag glass could you decipher  that the first £17k was gauranteed by the Icelandic finance regulator.

Yes greed is the problem but that is the greed which caused the deregulation of the lending institutions and the subsequent drift to chaos. The ordinary people who invested savings in insured accounts were doing what they were led to believe was the responsible thing.

[magpie seanie]

Excellent posts and comments Lone Shark but you have me slightly wrong I think. I'm certainly not a major FF man and won't be voting that way in the near future. My comments were related to the piece I was after reading. Can you explain to me the major differences in economic philosophy between FG and FF? I don't think there are many/any. Its not the same things as "who would be the better government". Higgins was pointing out that all the parties in the Dáil have the same basic beliefs in "the market". If FG/Lab were in government for the last 10-15 year things would be more or less the same right now - would they not? They claimed that themselves around election time.

You are absolutely spot on about a lot of things but one really close to my heart is this - people not really wanting no corruption. Most do just want the inside track and fail to see the hypocrisy of complaining when things go against them.