The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)

[Zapatista]

Just back from the beer I mentioned earlier.

Shouldn't have gone.

From what I hear Irish banking will not be the same by lunchtime today. Better stay in bed.

Beer on a Monday night is never a good thing unless you've just won the AI - In that instance, it's almost compulsory ! 

Good news for Irish banking ?

Will UK and other governments follow suit ?

I don't know the ins and outs of it yet, but it seems to be a massive piece of bluffing by lenno - if he were ever asked to pay up, he couldn't, i suppose it depends on how long it will be before the markets either test his promise or just decide to disbelieve him.  If he has to come up with the goods, it'll be a disaster for the taxpayer.  We're currently talking about the budget from hell coming up because tax revenues are short by 7bn on estimates (you have to wonder what idiot came up with the estimates), yet the minister finds it okay to guarantee over €400Bn of loans made by banks?  If 10% go bad (probably not an unreasonable assumption) that's €40 Bn, almost our total annual budget.
It would have been a better idea to force some mergers between the banks who appeared in serious bother yesterday and the ones who just appeared in bother.

Agreed. So far it is the greatest and probably the most stupid gamble in the history of the state. They should have nationalised one bank (or 2 if they could afford it) and let the others go. Now all it takes is another day or two in the markets like yesterday and we will have taxes like we have never seen before.

Surely they can't take economic advice from Gerry Adams?

[bcarrier]

FFS lads this is good news.  The Irish banks are now particularly attractive for deposits . The money will flow in and the immediate " cashflow" issue should be resolved.

Personally I think selling off good assets in a fire sale at the ( near) bottom of the market while retaining the poor ones - as the Uk have done with B&B is a way worse decision.

[Gnevin]

Surely the Irish banks are solid now?

[Zapatista]

We need to look very carefully where the money for this is coming from. Learn from our mistakes and not let it happen again. Prevention measures need to be put in place.
This problem has been evident in countries across the world for a long time. To think Ireland and the US etc could escape it is ridiculous. As the gap between the rich and the poor becomes wider and more definite the collapse of the movement of money is inevitable. Like our forests, if you keep taken from the forrest and putting in a warehouse eventually there will be nothing left in the forest to move. If you put back what you take then it can continue to move.

Like in countries such as Mexico. The gap is that wide and definite that those at the bottom struggle to livewhile those at the top keep trying to take more. So much so that even if they work for the rest of their lives and their children's lives they will never pay the debts to those they owe (mainly the US). Modern day slavery.

There is no less money in the world today as there was last year. The problem is that it is all collected in a small area and the movement is restricted. If I have 100 million euro I will not need to borrow but will lend and have more returned. After a while I have more and you have less. Eventually I will have it all but it will be a while before I notice it. If it does not move back down to you, you cannot repay our debts and will lose your homes. You will be in debt to me forever. Many 3rd world countries will never pay their debts. We have ignored this for years. It will happen here if we don't change the systems. Instead of owing money to countries we will owe it to private business.

[orangeman]

We need to look very carefully where the money for this is coming from. Learn from our mistakes and not let it happen again. Prevention measures need to be put in place.
This problem has been evident in countries across the world for a long time. To think Ireland and the US etc could escape it is ridiculous. As the gap between the rich and the poor becomes wider and more definite the collapse of the movement of money is inevitable. Like our forests, if you keep taken from the forrest and putting in a warehouse eventually there will be nothing left in the forest to move. If you put back what you take then it can continue to move.

Like in countries such as Mexico. The gap is that wide and definite that those at the bottom struggle to livewhile those at the top keep trying to take more. So much so that even if they work for the rest of their lives and their children's lives they will never pay the debts to those they owe (mainly the US). Modern day slavery.

There is no less money in the world today as there was last year. The problem is that it is all collected in a small area and the movement is restricted. If I have 100 million euro I will not need to borrow but will lend and have more returned. After a while I have more and you have less. Eventually I will have it all but it will be a while before I notice it. If it does not move back down to you, you cannot repay our debts and will lose your homes. You will be in debt to me forever. Many 3rd world countries will never pay their debts. We have ignored this for years. It will happen here if we don't change the systems. Instead of owing money to countries we will owe it to private business.

Where is the money now ? Who is in control of it ?

[Zapatista]

the 10% of the wealthiest people in the world. Bill Gates and what not. The USs have 700billion lying about there somewhere. Shell have a few billion etc.

[Bogball XV]

FFS lads this is good news.  The Irish banks are now particularly attractive for deposits . The money will flow in and the immediate " cashflow" issue should be resolved.

It might be, it might not be, I don't believe for one second that anyone knows how this is going to pan out - i do believe that there will be consequences that we have not yet forseen.
For example the state's credit rating may be lowered and that 10bn we've to borrow for the budget is going to cost more.

What happens if a bank does default, only one, say to the tune of about 10bn, previously the state had to guarantee €20K of savings, then €100K of savings, now all savings plus monies owed by that bank have been guaranteed, who will get paid first?  What happens when the money to repay runs out?  How long do you think would you have to wait before you got your money?

I don't know lads, it's a panicked action and that's rarely a good action.

[orangeman]

FFS lads this is good news.  The Irish banks are now particularly attractive for deposits . The money will flow in and the immediate " cashflow" issue should be resolved.

It might be, it might not be, I don't believe for one second that anyone knows how this is going to pan out - i do believe that there will be consequences that we have not yet forseen.
For example the state's credit rating may be lowered and that 10bn we've to borrow for the budget is going to cost more.

What happens if a bank does default, only one, say to the tune of about 10bn, previously the state had to guarantee €20K of savings, then €100K of savings, now all savings plus monies owed by that bank have been guaranteed, who will get paid first?  What happens when the money to repay runs out?  How long do you think would you have to wait before you got your money?

I don't know lads, it's a panicked action and that's rarely a good action.

Some of the things you're talking about may never happen - eg banks defualting - but guaranteeing deposits will hopefully ensure there isn't a run on the banks thereby creating stability.

[Lecale2]

Why do you think it may never happen? I would suggest that evidence from UK, USA and Benelux indicates that these guarantees will be required and some of funds will be drawn down. I don't have any idea which bank will do it first but I reckon one of them will, probably within the next week.

[orangeman]

Why do you think it may never happen? I would suggest that evidence from UK, USA and Benelux indicates that these guarantees will be required and some of funds will be drawn down. I don't have any idea which bank will do it first but I reckon one of them will, probably within the next week.

Don't think so - there's a fair degree of liquiidity in there at the moment, I think ! 

[Sideshow Bob]

Need a bit of advice here folks.


A few years ago a friend of a friend of a friend approached me to say he needed to borrow some money. He was willing to pay it back in installments and add a sizeable bit on top. I didn't have all the cash he wanted but I could see that I could make a few bob on the deal so I borrowed some cash from other friends and relatives to lend to him. He kept making payments and so I borrowed some more to lend to him. I had heard rumours that he wasn't the most reliable of people, but he was paying the installments as planned so everyone was happy, especially me because I was creaming off the top, and quite frankly living the high life on the back of the deal.

That's when it all started to go pearshaped. The payments stopped and I have had to start digging into my savings to pay back the friends and relatives I borrowed money from. The guy tells me he has some 'cashflow' problems and shows no interest in paying what he owes me. It is worse than that. I hadn't told the friends and relatives that I had lent their money to some dodgy geezer but now it all looks like it is going to come out.

I have tried to borrow money from other friends to keep my head above water but they are saying , unsurprisingly that there is no way.

I think I am fooked. What shall I do? I think I may be out of a job soon too, and although I able to claim state benefits I am not sure they will want to pay back the money I have borrowed and Lent out as well (although they might?). What do you think?

[orangeman]

Need a bit of advice here folks.


A few years ago a friend of a friend of a friend approached me to say he needed to borrow some money. He was willing to pay it back in installments and add a sizeable bit on top. I didn't have all the cash he wanted but I could see that I could make a few bob on the deal so I borrowed some cash from other friends and relatives to lend to him. He kept making payments and so I borrowed some more to lend to him. I had heard rumours that he wasn't the most reliable of people, but he was paying the installments as planned so everyone was happy, especially me because I was creaming off the top, and quite frankly living the high life on the back of the deal.

That's when it all started to go pearshaped. The payments stopped and I have had to start digging into my savings to pay back the friends and relatives I borrowed money from. The guy tells me he has some 'cashflow' problems and shows no interest in paying what he owes me. It is worse than that. I hadn't told the friends and relatives that I had lent their money to some dodgy geezer but now it all looks like it is going to come out.

I have tried to borrow money from other friends to keep my head above water but they are saying , unsurprisingly that there is no way.

I think I am fooked. What shall I do? I think I may be out of a job soon too, and although I able to claim state benefits I am not sure they will want to pay back the money I have borrowed and Lent out as well (although they might?). What do you think?

You think ?

[Bogball XV]

Some of the things you're talking about may never happen - eg banks defualting - but guaranteeing deposits will hopefully ensure there isn't a run on the banks thereby creating stability.

I know it may never happen and I know why this has been done, imo without it, at least one irish bank would no longer be with us in its current form, but that is not necessarily a bad thing (unless you happen to be a shareholder in one of the institutions that would very likely have went under today).  Tbh Lenihan's game is based on the bluff that he will never actually have to pay up, the move was to ensure confidence, but as I say the consequences of the guarantee are anybody's guess.

[Bogball XV]

Need a bit of advice here folks.


A few years ago a friend of a friend of a friend approached me to say he needed to borrow some money. He was willing to pay it back in installments and add a sizeable bit on top. I didn't have all the cash he wanted but I could see that I could make a few bob on the deal so I borrowed some cash from other friends and relatives to lend to him. He kept making payments and so I borrowed some more to lend to him. I had heard rumours that he wasn't the most reliable of people, but he was paying the installments as planned so everyone was happy, especially me because I was creaming off the top, and quite frankly living the high life on the back of the deal.

That's when it all started to go pearshaped. The payments stopped and I have had to start digging into my savings to pay back the friends and relatives I borrowed money from. The guy tells me he has some 'cashflow' problems and shows no interest in paying what he owes me. It is worse than that. I hadn't told the friends and relatives that I had lent their money to some dodgy geezer but now it all looks like it is going to come out.

I have tried to borrow money from other friends to keep my head above water but they are saying , unsurprisingly that there is no way.

I think I am fooked. What shall I do? I think I may be out of a job soon too, and although I able to claim state benefits I am not sure they will want to pay back the money I have borrowed and Lent out as well (although they might?). What do you think?

Bob, the last thing you should ever do on a discussion board like this is reveal your identity, now I can almost identify you from the above so I suggest you delete your post, before one of your 'mates' who you borrowed from figures out what you've done with their money.  Might I suggest that for a long term solution you go back to the auld sod as state hand-outs tend to be more generous there.

[Over the Bar]

I have a super solution to this problem.  What don't the US sell Alaska back to the Russians?  I'm sure the'd get at least $1000 billion form it and this would save the banking system AND get rid of Sarah Palin in one fell swoop!