The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)

[muppet]

Ireland did manage to get its finances and tax collection under control, but it was assumed that we would have sensible fiscal policies to avoid, for example, property booms developing as a reslut of low interest rates. We were supposed to tax the f*ck out of property if prices rose too quickly. We did the opposite and started lecturing Europe and the World as to why this time was different.

Ireland did largely tax the f*ck out of property, although they spent that tax and reduced other taxes rather than regarding it as a windfall to be put to one side.

The property boom could only have been stopped by bank regulation and by the people who give money to banks, notably the shareholders and bondholders, having the sense that the single currency did not mean there was a single risk differential between a bank lending in a property increasing by 30% each year one lending into property market largely rising with inflation. Of course they were right, as the banks were bailed out by the Irish taxpayer.

Ireland reduced taxes everywhere during the property boom, thereby throwing fuel on the fire. Certainly foreign banks were willing to do the same, and should have suffered accordingly (but the ECB wouldn't have it) but we could have put up Stamp Duty, for example, to control it.

To what rate would you have put stamp duty? People were paying €30K, €40K, €50K, €60K, €70K of stamp duty on houses and were simply borrowing the whole lot. I'm not saying that other points made are wrong, but that they were less important than the wall of borrowed money.

I said 'for example'. Add in bans on >90% mortgages and a suite of measures to stop the boom going out of control and we might have got somewhere. Instead our government threw fuel on the fire, to get votes. And the opposition demanded more.

The same is happening now with the next 'giveaway' budget. This is the same as noticing for the first time in years that you are not completely maxed out on credit card/overdraft debt, and then buying presents for everyone until you are maxed out again. And again the opposition is demanding more, because they have all judged that voters are stupid.

[Rossfan]

Aye indeed.
Give the people what they want and to Hell with the consequences.

[highorlow]

The same is happening now with the next 'giveaway' budget.

Yes it's the same carry on again alright. What's worse was listening to McCreevey the other day and his arrogance, he see's nothing wrong with buying votes.

Factor in the Irish mentality of snouts in the trough in the general economy and we will be back in a mess again in a few years time.

We must all be noticing the sneaky little add ons in the market these days, i.e.

Funfair for the kid last year = €2 per go, this year €2.50.

Croke Park last Sunday, Leinster Semis €30, last year €25.

Pints, appear to be extra €0.05 every other month, won't be long til we see the €10 pint in the city centre.

Deli Counters - sandwichs / rolls etc in my local shop, sneaky little 20c add on lately

Coffee - increasing all the time

Concert tickets - ditto

[muppet]

Opinion polls (to be taken with a pinch of salt) predicting a NO vote in Greece!

If that happens, what comes next could decide who wins the next General Elections in Spain, Italy and maybe more countries, and will probably determine how Sinn Féin go in Ireland next year.

[armaghniac]

First rallies 60% No!

[muppet]

Looks like a No alright.

First question is will the ECB allow Greek Banks to open tomorrow?

If not the economy will fall apart quickly.

[macdanger2]

Interesting week ahead

[Maguire01]

Very interesting. But does the referendum result really mean anything? Who is it actually a victory for? The Greeks have had an anti-austerity mandate since the election months ago (even if Syriza have rolled back on election promises already), so what's the difference now?

[muppet]

Very interesting. But does the referendum result really mean anything? Who is it actually a victory for? The Greeks have had an anti-austerity mandate since the election months ago (even if Syriza have rolled back on election promises already), so what's the difference now?

Tsipiras said he thought it would give him a stronger hand negotiating.

The reality seems to be they rejected a deal that had already been withdrawn. They have defaulted on the IMF payment. They have bigger payments coming. They need ECB ELA money to open their banks tomorrow and every day from now on.

The 'some one else will pay' mantra of Tsipiras, Doherty, Higgins and Murphy is nice to believe in, but it is nonsense. I think Greece will  find that out very soon.

[trileacman]

Very interesting. But does the referendum result really mean anything? Who is it actually a victory for? The Greeks have had an anti-austerity mandate since the election months ago (even if Syriza have rolled back on election promises already), so what's the difference now?

Tsipiras said he thought it would give him a stronger hand negotiating.

The reality seems to be they rejected a deal that had already been withdrawn. They have defaulted on the IMF payment. They have bigger payments coming. They need ECB ELA money to open their banks tomorrow and every day from now on.

The 'some one else will pay' mantra of Tsipiras, Doherty, Higgins and Murphy is nice to believe in, but it is nonsense. I think Greece will  find that out very soon.

I agree, the Greeks are living beyond their means and there's a whole f**king pile of bluff chat from these Szria boys like debt sustainability analysis and other horseshit.

[muppet]

Very interesting. But does the referendum result really mean anything? Who is it actually a victory for? The Greeks have had an anti-austerity mandate since the election months ago (even if Syriza have rolled back on election promises already), so what's the difference now?

Tsipiras said he thought it would give him a stronger hand negotiating.

The reality seems to be they rejected a deal that had already been withdrawn. They have defaulted on the IMF payment. They have bigger payments coming. They need ECB ELA money to open their banks tomorrow and every day from now on.

The 'some one else will pay' mantra of Tsipiras, Doherty, Higgins and Murphy is nice to believe in, but it is nonsense. I think Greece will  find that out very soon.

I agree, the Greeks are living beyond their means and there's a whole f**king pile of bluff chat from these Szria boys like debt sustainability analysis and other horseshit.

Something has to be done though with Greece. This is the 3rd crisis in 5 years with no sight of a way out. If the banks don't open soon the economy will stop functioning. Shops can't buy stock, because people buy nothing, anything bought abroad, such as medicine quickly runs out. I think the people will turn very quickly on Tsipiras if that continues.

Anyone know much about the Greek military? How independent are they?

The irony of those cheering a victory for democracy tonight is that if the other countries held referendums on whether to hand over their taxpayer's money to Greek, they most likely would vote no too. This isn't about democracy.

[macdanger2]

They simply can't afford to pay back the money, it's political necessity on behalf of the rest of the European govts that's preventing this being acknowledged.

I'm surprised Russia hasn't been sticking their oar in, would have thought they'd be delighted to get a foothold in a strategic location like Greece

[muppet]

They simply can't afford to pay back the money, it's political necessity on behalf of the rest of the European govts that's preventing this being acknowledged.

I'm surprised Russia hasn't been sticking their oar in, would have thought they'd be delighted to get a foothold in a strategic location like Greece

The Russians have their own financial difficulties since somebody slashed the price of oil.

If Greece says they won't pay back the money and gets away with it, Spain, Italy, Portugal and Ireland would be mad not to do the same thing. The problem is if that happens the euro will collapse along with much of Europe's banking system. There is no easy way out of this.

[macdanger2]

Definitely no easy way out and a seriously high stakes game of poker

Even if the Russians can't afford it, you have thought they'd be putting the pressure on just for divilment

[Wildweasel74]

There no point defaulting unless you do it from the word go, Is Ireland any better off since the Euro was introduced, was life that bad under the punt, i remember it been worth  £1.05 around 1996, now a euro worth 0.72, Should Ireland not have done what the UK done and stayed in the union but kept its currency?

Now if i was Russia i be eying up a few ports for monetary payoffs, that's really put the cats among the pigeons!!