The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)

[muppet]

If the vote is YES the Tsipiras and his party are gone. It is not yet certain that the IMF/EU are willing to wait on a vote so it might be too little to late.

If the vote is NO, Tsipiras and co will have been right. But they will be out of the Euro probably.

High stakes stuff.

Yes and while that will mean pain in the short term I think we'll be fighting with each other in queues to book our holidays in Greece next year. They will rocket back to growth pretty quickly (supported by Vladimir of course). Which will make the EU and especially our w**ker politicians look extremely bad.

Not so sure about that, they will have alienated the EU which has to be a huge chuck of trading partners.

The money always goes to where the returns are. The tourists will go there as it will be the best value and US money will chase the post collapse 5-10% growth.

But if your wealth falls by 40-80%, it takes many years at 5-10% growth to recover.

[Dinny Breen]

The Greek banks are going to be closed for 5 days, there will be intense Capital controls and then the Greeks will vote in a referendum on Sunday!! Having lived and worked in Greece, the Greeks tend not to like too much hassle can see them wanting to come back to the negotiating table so wouldn't be surprised if Tsipiras loses the referendum.

Greeks as a nation seem to hate paying taxes, cash is King, no cash will cause heartache.

[Denn Forever]

Interesting thought on Greece et al on thought for the day.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02vzdbl#auto

[magpie seanie]

If the vote is YES the Tsipiras and his party are gone. It is not yet certain that the IMF/EU are willing to wait on a vote so it might be too little to late.

If the vote is NO, Tsipiras and co will have been right. But they will be out of the Euro probably.

High stakes stuff.

Yes and while that will mean pain in the short term I think we'll be fighting with each other in queues to book our holidays in Greece next year. They will rocket back to growth pretty quickly (supported by Vladimir of course). Which will make the EU and especially our w**ker politicians look extremely bad.

Not so sure about that, they will have alienated the EU which has to be a huge chuck of trading partners.

The money always goes to where the returns are. The tourists will go there as it will be the best value and US money will chase the post collapse 5-10% growth.

But if your wealth falls by 40-80%, it takes many years at 5-10% growth to recover.

Greece has no economy and no industry bar tourism. They need to be built up from the bottom. This is the best route, in fact the only route with an prospect of success, for them and they'll be supported by Russia if the EU are stupid enough to let that happen.

Also - this mirage of an Irish recovery is complete horseshit. My bank is still grossly overcharging me for my mortgage, the government is raping my pay packet (PAYE to run the country, USC to pay off loan interest), the government is charging me for the privilege of living in my own home that I'm paying an overinflated mortgage to a zombie bank for, the government is attempting to charge me a third time for my water supply and they will then privatise this. We will be throw a few scraps to pacify us for the election but what has really changed? We're building houses again!!!!! That went well the last time.

People would need to wake up.

[Bord na Mona man]

Is there any hope of Greece ever coming close to balancing the books somewhere down the line?

[macdanger2]

Is there any hope of Greece ever coming close to balancing the books somewhere down the line?

As far as I know, Greece is operating a primary surplus i.e. they're balancing the books excluding debt repayments.

The level of debt they have is unsustainable and a large chunk needs to be written off - if it was a purely financial call, this would have already been done. However, the politics of it means that a debt write down for Greece would prompt calls for debt writedowns elsewhere as well as increased support for anti-austerity parties in other European countries. The flip side is that a default drives Greece closer to Russia and weakens the euro as it opens the door for other debt laden countries to leave as well.

[muppet]

Private holders of Greek debt already had a significant write down. As part of that deal the IMF and EU taxpayers took on the burden. Any write down now has to be paid for by taxpayers in other countries. Countries with lower benefits and standards of living will hardly agree, as wont countries in bailouts (unless everyone is getting writedowns - nil chance of happening) nor will those taxpayers who feel they shouldn't be paying for the mis-management by crap/corrupt governments.

[Muck Savage]

Is there any hope of Greece ever coming close to balancing the books somewhere down the line?

As far as I know, Greece is operating a primary surplus i.e. they're balancing the books excluding debt repayments.

The level of debt they have is unsustainable and a large chunk needs to be written off - if it was a purely financial call, this would have already been done. However, the politics of it means that a debt write down for Greece would prompt calls for debt writedowns elsewhere as well as increased support for anti-austerity parties in other European countries. The flip side is that a default drives Greece closer to Russia and weakens the euro as it opens the door for other debt laden countries to leave as well.

What bank manager would write off your mortgage if you went in and said, 'Sure I'm balancing the books without the repayments"? They dug themselves into this hole with an inflated Public sector, giving themselves raises and early retirement. I've no sympathy for them. The screwed up there own finances and now and on the brink of screwing up the rest of the EU. I agree that the debt is unattainable but how was it allowed to get to this point by everyone involved?
This potential domino effect could be bad for everyone.

[magpie seanie]

Is there any hope of Greece ever coming close to balancing the books somewhere down the line?

As far as I know, Greece is operating a primary surplus i.e. they're balancing the books excluding debt repayments.

The level of debt they have is unsustainable and a large chunk needs to be written off - if it was a purely financial call, this would have already been done. However, the politics of it means that a debt write down for Greece would prompt calls for debt writedowns elsewhere as well as increased support for anti-austerity parties in other European countries. The flip side is that a default drives Greece closer to Russia and weakens the euro as it opens the door for other debt laden countries to leave as well.

What bank manager would write off your mortgage if you went in and said, 'Sure I'm balancing the books without the repayments"? They dug themselves into this hole with an inflated Public sector, giving themselves raises and early retirement. I've no sympathy for them. The screwed up there own finances and now and on the brink of screwing up the rest of the EU. I agree that the debt is unattainable but how was it allowed to get to this point by everyone involved?
This potential domino effect could be bad for everyone.

Who let them into the EURO? They didn't become a messed up place overnight.

[Muck Savage]

Is there any hope of Greece ever coming close to balancing the books somewhere down the line?

As far as I know, Greece is operating a primary surplus i.e. they're balancing the books excluding debt repayments.

The level of debt they have is unsustainable and a large chunk needs to be written off - if it was a purely financial call, this would have already been done. However, the politics of it means that a debt write down for Greece would prompt calls for debt writedowns elsewhere as well as increased support for anti-austerity parties in other European countries. The flip side is that a default drives Greece closer to Russia and weakens the euro as it opens the door for other debt laden countries to leave as well.

What bank manager would write off your mortgage if you went in and said, 'Sure I'm balancing the books without the repayments"? They dug themselves into this hole with an inflated Public sector, giving themselves raises and early retirement. I've no sympathy for them. The screwed up there own finances and now and on the brink of screwing up the rest of the EU. I agree that the debt is unattainable but how was it allowed to get to this point by everyone involved?
This potential domino effect could be bad for everyone.

Who let them into the EURO? They didn't become a messed up place overnight.

Hence my note on 2nd last line. All the EU finance ministers over the last 15 years should be answering this

[armaghniac]

Is there any hope of Greece ever coming close to balancing the books somewhere down the line?

As far as I know, Greece is operating a primary surplus i.e. they're balancing the books excluding debt repayments.

The level of debt they have is unsustainable and a large chunk needs to be written off - if it was a purely financial call, this would have already been done. However, the politics of it means that a debt write down for Greece would prompt calls for debt writedowns elsewhere as well as increased support for anti-austerity parties in other European countries. The flip side is that a default drives Greece closer to Russia and weakens the euro as it opens the door for other debt laden countries to leave as well.

What bank manager would write off your mortgage if you went in and said, 'Sure I'm balancing the books without the repayments"? They dug themselves into this hole with an inflated Public sector, giving themselves raises and early retirement. I've no sympathy for them. The screwed up there own finances and now and on the brink of screwing up the rest of the EU. I agree that the debt is unattainable but how was it allowed to get to this point by everyone involved?
This potential domino effect could be bad for everyone.

The Greeks were acting the maggot more or less in public view. The price should have been paid by those who held their bonds. But they were cute enough to manipulate the other governments that this would be "bad for the Euro", so a large part of the debt remained in public hands. As everyone says, the voters of Slovakia or wherever are not keen to pay and Greece cannot pay, who those who should have suffered a loss have not done so.

Puerto Rico is facing default. This will not be "bad for the dollar", nor will the ATMs there stop working, but they people who bought their bonds will lose out.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/06/29/puerto-rico-debt-crisis-default/29458475/

[muppet]

Is there any hope of Greece ever coming close to balancing the books somewhere down the line?

As far as I know, Greece is operating a primary surplus i.e. they're balancing the books excluding debt repayments.

The level of debt they have is unsustainable and a large chunk needs to be written off - if it was a purely financial call, this would have already been done. However, the politics of it means that a debt write down for Greece would prompt calls for debt writedowns elsewhere as well as increased support for anti-austerity parties in other European countries. The flip side is that a default drives Greece closer to Russia and weakens the euro as it opens the door for other debt laden countries to leave as well.

What bank manager would write off your mortgage if you went in and said, 'Sure I'm balancing the books without the repayments"? They dug themselves into this hole with an inflated Public sector, giving themselves raises and early retirement. I've no sympathy for them. The screwed up there own finances and now and on the brink of screwing up the rest of the EU. I agree that the debt is unattainable but how was it allowed to get to this point by everyone involved?
This potential domino effect could be bad for everyone.

The Greeks were acting the maggot more or less in public view. The price should have been paid by those who held their bonds. But they were cute enough to manipulate the other governments that this would be "bad for the Euro", so a large part of the debt remained in public hands. As everyone says, the voters of Slovakia or wherever are not keen to pay and Greece cannot pay, who those who should have suffered a loss have not done so.

Puerto Rico is facing default. This will not be "bad for the dollar", nor will the ATMs there stop working, but they people who bought their bonds will lose out.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/06/29/puerto-rico-debt-crisis-default/29458475/

Greek bond holders took their hit in the lest Greek crisis (2012?).  The private Greek debt holders are off the stage now. Tsipiras thinks other EU politicians will sacrifice their own votes to help his.

[Muck Savage]

If they don't default now then its really a case of kicking the can down the road. They are going to default at some stage so maybe for themselves they should just take the hammering now and begin the rebuild process as soon as possible. I know all the Euro heads are just worried about their own corner but this is unsustainable so best take the pain now. This has been dragging on since 2008, how much longer does it have to go on before reality sets in.

[armaghniac]

Greek bond holders took their hit in the lest Greek crisis (2012?).  The private Greek debt holders are off the stage now. Tsipiras thinks other EU politicians will sacrifice their own votes to help his.

Not as big a bit as Cyprus, I think. Basically Ireland was first, no cut at all at all, Greece (much worse case) got something of a cut, Cyprus came next and got a bigger (perhaps appropriate) cut. Ireland could withstand the bloodletting to some extent as its economy is fairly healthy underneath it all. Greece needed more treatment.

It does represent a failure of European vision though
There is a good quote on the FT forum.,
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e965eca6-1e45-11e5-ab0f-6bb9974f25d0.html

"If our grandfathers' generation could work hand in hand with neighbours that turned some of them into soap, we would be unbelievably weak not to rise to the occasion when a fellow member of society has behaved financially ver irresponsibly but no more. "

They should have burned the bondholders, identified the reforms, and give Greece a couple of years to get things in order, when it could have borrowed again on the markets. Of course the Greek politicans are no help either, not unlike our own charlatans.

[macdanger2]

Is there any hope of Greece ever coming close to balancing the books somewhere down the line?

As far as I know, Greece is operating a primary surplus i.e. they're balancing the books excluding debt repayments.

The level of debt they have is unsustainable and a large chunk needs to be written off - if it was a purely financial call, this would have already been done. However, the politics of it means that a debt write down for Greece would prompt calls for debt writedowns elsewhere as well as increased support for anti-austerity parties in other European countries. The flip side is that a default drives Greece closer to Russia and weakens the euro as it opens the door for other debt laden countries to leave as well.

What bank manager would write off your mortgage if you went in and said, 'Sure I'm balancing the books without the repayments"? They dug themselves into this hole with an inflated Public sector, giving themselves raises and early retirement. I've no sympathy for them. The screwed up there own finances and now and on the brink of screwing up the rest of the EU. I agree that the debt is unattainable but how was it allowed to get to this point by everyone involved?
This potential domino effect could be bad for everyone.

True but if the debt is simply not sustainable, what option is there than default? A deal without some sort of default is just delaying the inevitable imo

There's going to be a domino effect whether they leave the euro or not