The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)

[Esmarelda]

Will Greece leave the euro? 

Are  they being harshly  treated?  If Ireland had to tighten their  belt in  a manner being  asked  of Greece, what would Ireland have to do.  Are they protesting too much?

Ireland's debt was mainly bank debt that we should have let go bust, but we weren't allowed to.

It is interesting to see the head of The Greek Central Bank making statements last week that really pissed off his Government. It reminded me of Honohan shafting our Government by announcing the bailout. We now know who the Central Banks really work for, and it isn't us.

Greece's debt is mainly Government liabilities such as pensions and public service pay. They have elected a left-wing Government who promised to maintain those pensions and pay. Those who bankroll the EU (mainly Germany) have no appetite to pay for all of that and the Greeks can't afford it. Hence the impasse.

If the Greeks win, the rest of the PIGS (including us) are very likely to elect hard line left-wing governments who will promise higher pensions and pay for public servants. Thereby, ironically, sending us all straight into Greek territory.

The EU won't allow that. I suspect a little bit more of kicking the can, for a couple of more months maybe, but there is very little road left. Either the Greek Government will climb down, or fall, or else we will have the Grexit. But I think it will be one of the first two.

Do you have the stats on this? Brian Hayes was on telly telling us that the other European banks were creditors of the Greeks. He didn't quantify it though.

[muppet]

Will Greece leave the euro? 

Are  they being harshly  treated?  If Ireland had to tighten their  belt in  a manner being  asked  of Greece, what would Ireland have to do.  Are they protesting too much?

Ireland's debt was mainly bank debt that we should have let go bust, but we weren't allowed to.

It is interesting to see the head of The Greek Central Bank making statements last week that really pissed off his Government. It reminded me of Honohan shafting our Government by announcing the bailout. We now know who the Central Banks really work for, and it isn't us.

Greece's debt is mainly Government liabilities such as pensions and public service pay. They have elected a left-wing Government who promised to maintain those pensions and pay. Those who bankroll the EU (mainly Germany) have no appetite to pay for all of that and the Greeks can't afford it. Hence the impasse.

If the Greeks win, the rest of the PIGS (including us) are very likely to elect hard line left-wing governments who will promise higher pensions and pay for public servants. Thereby, ironically, sending us all straight into Greek territory.

The EU won't allow that. I suspect a little bit more of kicking the can, for a couple of more months maybe, but there is very little road left. Either the Greek Government will climb down, or fall, or else we will have the Grexit. But I think it will be one of the first two.

Do you have the stats on this? Brian Hayes was on telly telling us that the other European banks were creditors of the Greeks. He didn't quantify it though.

They are not mutually exclusive. The ECB has been bankrolling the Greek banks who along with the IMF and the EU have been paying to keep Greece afloat for years. One of the main reasons is that the Greeks don't raise enough taxes to pay for their PS & pensions.

[armaghniac]

Greeks to call referendum on deal.

[muppet]

Greeks to call referendum on deal.

That will put the cat among the pigeons. 

If the creditors don't agree we get the Grexit and they will be seen as anti-democratic into the bargain, not that this has bothered them before.

If the creditors agree and the Greeks vote no, then what?

If the creditors agree and the Greeks vote yes, then the Government will say you got what you wanted. Suck it up.

Tsipras washing his hands of it.

[armaghniac]

I think the referendum is in a week, after the deadline, so there has to be an extension even until then.

[muppet]

I think the referendum is in a week, after the deadline, so there has to be an extension even until then.

Exactly. If there is a default they will blame the creditors and call it anti-democratic, and pretend to wash their hands of blame.

I don't know much about Tsipras but Greece could easily end up back under military rule shortly or some other form of chaotic regime.

[muppet]

Didn't a previous Greek PM suggest a referendum?

One, Ein, Un etc were not amused if I recall correctly.

[muppet]

Didn't a previous Greek PM suggest a referendum?

One, Ein, Un etc were not amused if I recall correctly.

Just Googled it.

It was Papandreou and the G8 called him a madman!

If they haven't changed their tune, it will be default.

[muppet]

According to the Telegraph, Greece's Alpha Bank has suspended online banking facilities.

This could get interesting quickly.........

[muppet]

Twitter reporting long queues at ATMs in Athens. It is 2am there so either party season is in full swing or............

[armaghniac]

[muppet]

[muppet]

There were conflicting reports on twitter last night. Some pictures showed queues like the above, and others showed ATMs with no one around.

It if is a bank run, it is more like a bank brisk walk, or maybe a bank stroll.

[armaghniac]

It isn't clear what the Greeks will vote on, as the money is due Tuesday and the Troika are not inclined to cut them any slack.

If I was Greek I'd go to an ATM!

[muppet]

It isn't clear what the Greeks will vote on, as the money is due Tuesday and the Troika are not inclined to cut them any slack.

If I was Greek I'd go to an ATM!

So would I, except I would wind the date back a few years.