The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)

[muppet]

http://www.economonitor.com/analysts/2012/04/23/spain-following-in-irelands-footsteps/

[thejuice]

Should we consider postponing the referendum till after France has decided what way they are going to go? Especially now that the Dutch parliament has collapsed and the Czechs are in trouble too. Lets wait and hope someone else pulls the rug.

[Declan]

Should we consider postponing the referendum till after France has decided what way they are going to go?

Definitely

[muppet]

Should we consider postponing the referendum till after France has decided what way they are going to go?

Definitely

If Spain needs a bailout soon it might change things.

Our problem is that we need something to happen before the end of next year, or else we need a second bailout and will continue down the Greece road, albeit way behind them.

[seafoid]

Should we consider postponing the referendum till after France has decided what way they are going to go?

Definitely

If Spain needs a bailout soon it might change things.

Our problem is that we need something to happen before the end of next year, or else we need a second bailout and will continue down the Greece road, albeit way behind them.

Ireland will probably need a second bailout once the first runs out but things are better than Greece.
I'd say it will be more like the Hotel California until there is some smacht put on the budget deficit. 

[muppet]

http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2012/04/growth-will-save-us-you-bet/

The CDS holdings of U.S. banks are almost three times as much as their $181 billion in direct lending to the five countries at the end of June [2011. The five countries being  Portugal, Italy Ireland, Greece and Spain]

If we and the others default the US banks will lose 3 times as much in CDSs as they will lose from the actual defaults. This is another example of the market gone mad. It is not merely the debts that would have to be written off that would be problem, it is the bets on them.

The US would probably invade if we defaulted, which come to think of it mightn't be a bad thing.

[Declan]

Good God thats madness

[Croí na hÉireann]

http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2012/04/24/thats-not-rain-thats-a-lie

Many years ago, this column argued that the euro would break up. Back then, I thought the break-up would be the likely upshot of a dramatic eurozone debt crisis. Now I am certain that this will come to pass.

Time to open the sterling accounts?

[seafoid]

The Croke Park Agreement will have to be scrapped regardless but maybe there might be some light at the end of the tunnel for small businesses..


Time to say "basta" to austerity

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/dbea8c5c-8e34-11e1-b9ae-00144feab49a.html#axzz1srAdmpEc

[muppet]

Maybe this is the beginning of end of property crisis here:

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2012/0427/breaking16.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[ludermor]

How does this work?
She bought a house for £245k
She handed the keys back to presumably the bank sold the house for £????k
She owes £170k ( does this include interest penalties etc??)
She will pay back £18k so bank 'loses' £152k.
Does that mean the bank sold the house for £75k ( less payment mades etc etc)
im confused.

[thejuice]

It seems there has been a deliberate attempt by the government with the help of RTE and some papers to disguise the truth whether Ireland would be able to apply for a loan from the IMF even if we vote no.

so can we or not?

[Declan]

so can we or not?

We can.
Vinnie had a good article on it in the Times here:
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2012/0502/1224315452125.html

[armaghniac]

It seems there has been a deliberate attempt by the government with the help of RTE and some papers to disguise the truth whether Ireland would be able to apply for a loan from the IMF even if we vote no.

This is a disingenuous. The question is not whether we can apply for a loan, it is whether we have any appreciable chance of getting it and on what terms. The IMF is not a charity and Ireland is not the only place seeking assistance. We have already borrowed more from the IMF than is usual (because the EU is effectively guaranteeing the loans). Without this Euro backstop, the IMF might give some emergency assistance, but not for long and not without forceful action to balance the books.

The odd thing about the referendum is that "No" is being advocated by people who want this to balancing of books to occur and the social welfare scroungers and public sector wasters to get their comeuppance. "No" is also being advocated by those who claim that it will allow business as usual in these sectors with no need for change or cutbacks. One or other is profoundly wrong.

[glens abu]

skip to main | skip to sidebar HomeBelfast Media BlogsBelfastmedia.comBelfastPix.comContactLéargas
by Sinn Féin's Gerry Adams

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Wednesday, May 9, 2012
Where now for Europe? There have been a whole series of elections in European states in the last week. Voters in Britain, Italy, Greece, Germany and France have all gone to the polls. Most of the media focus has been on the electoral outcomes in France, with the election of a Socialist President Francois Hollande, and on Greece where the government parties saw their support sharply decline.

In effect the elections in France and Greece were referendums on the strategy of austerity which French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel championed and successfully imposed on the EU in the last two years – austerity lost!

The defeat of Sarkozy and of other conservative parties and governments is evidence of a tide of change that is taking place in many European countries.

Since the economic crisis gripped Europe the conservative governments that dominate the EU have pursued austerity policies. In March they agreed to the introduction of an Austerity (Fiscal Compact) Treaty.

The result of this ideological adherence to austerity has been a deepening of the economic and banking crisis within Europe. State deficits have increased, public services have been slashed, unemployment has soared and poverty has increased.

Nowhere has this been more apparent than in the south of Ireland. Since 2008 there have been five austerity budgets and €24.6 billion worth of cuts. Government growth predictions for the economy have had to be reduced time and time again. In that same period the Irish state has seen its exchequer deficit – which austerity was supposed to cut - double from €12.7 billion in 2008 to €24.9 billion in 2011.

At the same time the social and human consequences of the austerity policies pursued by the government has been grave. Almost 15% or half a million citizens are out of work; emigration is again widespread; huge cuts have been inflicted on health and education and other public services; and new taxes have added to the distress of households.

Ordinary citizens understand, better than the governments of Europe and the spin doctors of austerity that you can't cut your way out of a recession. Imposing deep cuts to public services; reducing wages and welfare payments, and imposing new taxes on low and middle income families in a recession just makes the recession worse.

Quite clearly austerity is not working. The election results across Europe are evidence that there is a ground swell of opinion among citizens now defiantly fighting back against austerity policies. They are voting out those politicians and parties pursuing austerity.

On May 31st citizens will have their opportunity to vote in a referendum. The choice before them is to either endorse austerity, by writing it into the constitution, or voting No and joining the growing European wide movement that is demanding an end to austerity, as well as investment in jobs and growth.

With the popular tide in Europe demanding jobs and in an effort not to be wrong footed by the growing opposition to austerity, Fine Gael, Labour and Fianna Fáil have rediscovered the importance of a jobs and growth strategy.

Monsieur Hollande is now flavour of the month for all three parties as they trip over each other rushing to declare their support for his position and some even claiming that they were saying all of this before he was!

Citizens will not be fooled by this. Or by the rhetoric. The truth is that prior to a succession of EU summits Sinn Féin urged the government to ensure that growth and jobs were at the heart of any subsequent agreement. It rejected this sensible approach.

On the contrary it chose to sign up to a Fiscal Compact Treaty that will lock this state into austerity policies for years to come and will see the government hand significant fiscal sovereignty over to bureaucrats in Europe.

Under the Troika deal the government and Fianna Fáil agreed to a bailout programme that commits this government to €8.6 billion of additional cuts for the next three years. Under the Austerity Treaty the work of reducing the structural deficit to 0.5% will mean more cuts of €6 billion. In addition the state has signed up to giving €11 billion to the European Stability Mechanism.

Where does the government plan to get this money? Thus far it has failed to say.

Of equal importance is the political direction the Austerity Treaty is taking. The head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi spelt it out last week. Speaking in Barcelona Draghi set out his vision for Europe in the next ten years. He said: "We want to have a fiscal union. We have to accept the delegation of fiscal sovereignty from the national governemnts to some form of central authority."

This means that the Irish government has chosen to go down a path which will lead to Europe deciding what our tax regime is; how much citizens will pay in taxes and how much is paid out on welfare to those in need.

Do Irish citizens want to be a province of a European super state where technocrats – who have taken a succession of bad decisions for Europe in recent years - take decisions for Irish citizens with no accountability?

So, where to now? Austerity is in retreat but conservative governments across Europe, and Enda Kenny, Eamon Gilmore and Micheál Martin, remain ideologically committed to austerity. The referendum on May 31st is an opportunity for Irish citizens to say enough and no more to austerity. Vote No for Jobs and investment in the economy.





Posted by Gerry Adams at 8:38 AM 0 comments