The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)

Started by muppet, September 28, 2008, 11:36:36 PM

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Declan

QuoteImho the humiliation of Greece and the austerity packages rammed into other countries could create a bigger appetite for the rise of the extreme right and the extreme left in these countries. The short term thinking in Europe and the States could have very serious long term implications over the next decade.

Definitely - May you be glad you live in interesting times!

whiskeysteve

Somewhere, somehow, someone's going to pay: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pPhISgw3I2w

muppet

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seafoid

Martin Wolf on why the financial markets are like a dog who has just clasped its paws around the leg of a table

Presumably, an effort would be made to build a firewall between the exiting country and other vulnerable countries. But it would be tested to destruction.

thejuice

Anyone see this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqN3amj6AcE

So what was so shocking? He pretty much said what everyone knows. Its just the politicians like to pretend that they can do something about it.
It won't be the next manager but the one after that Meath will become competitive again - MO'D 2016

Dougal Maguire

Careful now


Declan

QuoteHow to bet against France . This is totally amoral


No surprise there -

muppet

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muppet

http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2011/10/hungarys-default-the-first-victim-erste-bank/

Apparently Hungary de facto defaulted (sounds like an 80s band) nearly two weeks ago.

Erste bank of Austria has just announced a 1.6 billion Euro loss. It's share price fell nearly 10%.

It is the nature of the losses more than the amount which is critical.

First and foremost the losses were because of Hungay's default (Yeah that's right, Default) and the 'unexpected' slow down in Romania. Hungary passed a law which is now close to coming in to force, which allows people who borrowed in Swiss francs to pay back on Hungarian florints. It is this law which is causing the banks to lose about 21%-25% on a large chunk of their loans.  I wrote about this in Greece, Hungary and Italy – a nexus of debt failure. I made this point then, and it is now clear I was correct, that the law amounted to a default.  While everyone was looking at Greece asking will they, won't they, Hungary did.


Here is the timeline:

2008: IMF are called in http://www.reuters.com/article/2008/10/27/us-financial-hungary-idUSTRE49Q2DT20081027

Nov 2010: Government takes private pensions into State scheme http://blogs.wsj.com/emergingeurope/2010/11/24/hungary-forces-private-pension-fund-members-back-to-state-scheme/

Oct 2011: Default
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