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Non GAA Discussion => General discussion => Topic started by: muppet on September 28, 2008, 11:36:36 PM

Title: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on September 28, 2008, 11:36:36 PM
It is strange times when the extreme right wing government, in the home of the free market, are proposing to effectively nationalise a huge part of the financial industry.

This proposal will attempt to fix the problem from the top down (save the wealthy bankers) rather than from the bottom up (buy out those who have lost their homes) , but that would be asking too much from the Republicans.

If this plan doesn't go through there are experts who think the dollar will go like some Latin American currencies have done. That would mean hyper inflation and rocketing interest rates. This could be only a matter of weeks away.

The danger of Iran or some one else (Putin will feel like slapping Bush after Georgia) trading their oil in Euros is not being mentioned much as the consequences for the US economy (and our own) are to disastrous to even think about.

What no one is contemplating is what happens if the Big Bailout doesn't work? 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on September 28, 2008, 11:40:03 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 28, 2008, 11:36:36 PM
If this plan doesn't go through there are experts who think the dollar will go like some Latin American currencies have done. That wouldl mean hyper inflation and rocketing interest rates. This could be only a matter of weeks away.
I thought that was pretty much a given if the deal goes through anyway, surely with all this money being printed the dollar can only go one way?

That aside, you're right that a bottom up fix would be a little more equitable, but...
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: J70 on September 28, 2008, 11:40:31 PM
The Democrats are heavily involved in this too, and it seems to be them and the Bush administration that are driving it. The congressional Republicans are being dragged along kicking and screaming. It will be interesting to see how the votes go with an election in less than two months. Apparently Dennis Kucinich, congressman from Cleveland and perennial Democratic presidential candidate, has vowed not to vote for it, so the opposition is coming from both sides.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on September 28, 2008, 11:46:40 PM
Quote from: J70 on September 28, 2008, 11:40:31 PM
The Democrats are heavily involved in this too, and it seems to be them and the Bush administration that are driving it. The congressional Republicans are being dragged along kicking and screaming. It will be interesting to see how the votes go with an election in less than two months. Apparently Dennis Kucinich, congressman from Cleveland and perennial Democratic presidential candidate, has vowed not to vote for it, so the opposition is coming from both sides.

It mightn't be the best plan but it is the only plan. Anyone voting against it is insane.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on September 29, 2008, 12:13:25 AM
Quote from: muppet on September 28, 2008, 11:46:40 PM
Quote from: J70 on September 28, 2008, 11:40:31 PM
The Democrats are heavily involved in this too, and it seems to be them and the Bush administration that are driving it. The congressional Republicans are being dragged along kicking and screaming. It will be interesting to see how the votes go with an election in less than two months. Apparently Dennis Kucinich, congressman from Cleveland and perennial Democratic presidential candidate, has vowed not to vote for it, so the opposition is coming from both sides.

It mightn't be the best plan but it is the only plan. Anyone voting against it is insane.
it might be the only plan, but it doesn't have to be the only plan - from my limited understanding it seems like a terrible deal for americans at the very least.  Imo there is no reason why we can't continue as we presently are, if a bank goes under as a result of bad decisions, so be it, there'll be plenty of vultures in to pick up the pieces, this needs to work itself out imo.

Would the dems be in favour because they see this as no lose for Obama?  In that if it works, great, he'll be able to get on with the job of being president, if it doesn't he can blame the last administration, and he can also blame this financial strait jacket for not being able to realise his campaign goals whatever happens.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: J70 on September 29, 2008, 12:25:57 AM
There is politics involved here too. The Democrats probably could get enough to pass this on their own, but they are afraid that it will then become an election issue and something for the Republicans to beat them with. Bush is irrelevant at this stage, which is why they have been insisting on the Republicans getting on board.

Personally, I would have a lot more trust in someone like Paulson than in politicians, of either stripe, who have one eye on the election in November.



Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on September 29, 2008, 09:48:06 AM
Quote from: J70 on September 29, 2008, 12:25:57 AM
There is politics involved here too. The Democrats probably could get enough to pass this on their own, but they are afraid that it will then become an election issue and something for the Republicans to beat them with. Bush is irrelevant at this stage, which is why they have been insisting on the Republicans getting on board.

Personally, I would have a lot more trust in someone like Paulson than in politicians, of either stripe, who have one eye on the election in November.




Paulson the former chairman of Goldman Sachs behind plan which will rescue Goldman Sachs? 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Donagh on September 29, 2008, 10:00:36 AM
There's a certain irony to the biggest powerhouse in world capitalism bankrupting itself to save the bankers while thousands of others lose their homes and are thrown out onto the streets with without jobs or healthcare. You reap what you sow as some might say.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Minder on September 29, 2008, 10:04:13 AM
As Jay Leno said "When you screw up, you pay. When the banks screw up, you pay".
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: mannix on September 29, 2008, 10:43:15 AM
Is it the end of the "hyper power" ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on September 29, 2008, 11:16:08 AM
New mortgage lending collapsed in August, according to the latest figures from the Bank of England.

Banks and building societies lent a net £143m in home loans last month, just 5% of July's lending figure and only 2% of the lending in August 2007.

August is traditionally the quietest month for house sales.

But the Bank's figures also show that 32,000 new mortgages were approved in August, a new record low and 70% fewer than a year ago.

This suggests that the fall in sales and prices will continue into next year.




£143m for the whole of the UK is unbelievably low !
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Declan on September 29, 2008, 11:22:34 AM
Interesting article in the Guardian: Don't agree with all of his assertions but food for thought.

A Shattering Moment in America's Fall From Power
The global financial crisis will see the US falter in the same way the Soviet Union did when the Berlin Wall came down. The era of American dominance is over

by John Gray

Our gaze might be on the markets melting down, but the upheaval we are experiencing is more than a financial crisis, however large. Here is a historic geopolitical shift, in which the balance of power in the world is being altered irrevocably. The era of American global leadership, reaching back to the Second World War, is over.

You can see it in the way America's dominion has slipped away in its own backyard, with Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez taunting and ridiculing the superpower with impunity. Yet the setback of America's standing at the global level is even more striking. With the nationalisation of crucial parts of the financial system, the American free-market creed has self-destructed while countries that retained overall control of markets have been vindicated. In a change as far-reaching in its implications as the fall of the Soviet Union, an entire model of government and the economy has collapsed.

Ever since the end of the Cold War, successive American administrations have lectured other countries on the necessity of sound finance. Indonesia, Thailand, Argentina and several African states endured severe cuts in spending and deep recessions as the price of aid from the International Monetary Fund, which enforced the American orthodoxy. China in particular was hectored relentlessly on the weakness of its banking system. But China's success has been based on its consistent contempt for Western advice and it is not Chinese banks that are currently going bust. How symbolic yesterday that Chinese astronauts take a spacewalk while the US Treasury Secretary is on his knees.

Despite incessantly urging other countries to adopt its way of doing business, America has always had one economic policy for itself and another for the rest of the world. Throughout the years in which the US was punishing countries that departed from fiscal prudence, it was borrowing on a colossal scale to finance tax cuts and fund its over-stretched military commitments. Now, with federal finances critically dependent on continuing large inflows of foreign capital, it will be the countries that spurned the American model of capitalism that will shape America's economic future.

Which version of the bail out of American financial institutions cobbled up by Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke is finally adopted is less important than what the bail out means for America's position in the world. The populist rant about greedy banks that is being loudly ventilated in Congress is a distraction from the true causes of the crisis. The dire condition of America's financial markets is the result of American banks operating in a free-for-all environment that these same American legislators created. It is America's political class that, by embracing the dangerously simplistic ideology of deregulation, has responsibility for the present mess.

In present circumstances, an unprecedented expansion of government is the only means of averting a market catastrophe. The consequence, however, will be that America will be even more starkly dependent on the world's new rising powers. The federal government is racking up even larger borrowings, which its creditors may rightly fear will never be repaid. It may well be tempted to inflate these debts away in a surge of inflation that would leave foreign investors with hefty losses. In these circumstances, will the governments of countries that buy large quantities of American bonds, China, the Gulf States and Russia, for example, be ready to continue supporting the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency? Or will these countries see this as an opportunity to tilt the balance of economic power further in their favour? Either way, the control of events is no longer in American hands.

The fate of empires is very often sealed by the interaction of war and debt. That was true of the British Empire, whose finances deteriorated from the First World War onwards, and of the Soviet Union. Defeat in Afghanistan and the economic burden of trying to respond to Reagan's technically flawed but politically extremely effective Star Wars programme were vital factors in triggering the Soviet collapse. Despite its insistent exceptionalism, America is no different. The Iraq War and the credit bubble have fatally undermined America's economic primacy. The US will continue to be the world's largest economy for a while longer, but it will be the new rising powers that, once the crisis is over, buy up what remains intact in the wreckage of America's financial system.

There has been a good deal of talk in recent weeks about imminent economic armageddon. In fact, this is far from being the end of capitalism. The frantic scrambling that is going on in Washington marks the passing of only one type of capitalism - the peculiar and highly unstable variety that has existed in America over the last 20 years. This experiment in financial laissez-faire has imploded.While the impact of the collapse will be felt everywhere, the market economies that resisted American-style deregulation will best weather the storm. Britain, which has turned itself into a gigantic hedge fund, but of a kind that lacks the ability to profit from a downturn, is likely to be especially badly hit.

The irony of the post-Cold War period is that the fall of communism was followed by the rise of another utopian ideology. In American and Britain, and to a lesser extent other Western countries, a type of market fundamentalism became the guiding philosophy. The collapse of American power that is underway is the predictable upshot. Like the Soviet collapse, it will have large geopolitical repercussions. An enfeebled economy cannot support America's over-extended military commitments for much longer. Retrenchment is inevitable and it is unlikely to be gradual or well planned.

Meltdowns on the scale we are seeing are not slow-motion events. They are swift and chaotic, with rapidly spreading side-effects. Consider Iraq. The success of the surge, which has been achieved by bribing the Sunnis, while acquiescing in ongoing ethnic cleansing, has produced a condition of relative peace in parts of the country. How long will this last, given that America's current level of expenditure on the war can no longer be sustained?

An American retreat from Iraq will leave Iran the regional victor. How will Saudi Arabia respond? Will military action to forestall Iran acquiring nuclear weapons be less or more likely? China's rulers have so far been silent during the unfolding crisis. Will America's weakness embolden them to assert China's power or will China continue its cautious policy of 'peaceful rise'? At present, none of these questions can be answered with any confidence. What is evident is that power is leaking from the US at an accelerating rate. Georgia showed Russia redrawing the geopolitical map, with America an impotent spectator.

Outside the US, most people have long accepted that the development of new economies that goes with globalisation will undermine America's central position in the world. They imagined that this would be a change in America's comparative standing, taking place incrementally over several decades or generations. Today, that looks an increasingly unrealistic assumption.

Having created the conditions that produced history's biggest bubble, America's political leaders appear unable to grasp the magnitude of the dangers the country now faces. Mired in their rancorous culture wars and squabbling among themselves, they seem oblivious to the fact that American global leadership is fast ebbing away. A new world is coming into being almost unnoticed, where America is only one of several great powers, facing an uncertain future it can no longer shape.


© 2008 The Guardian
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Zapatista on September 29, 2008, 01:01:17 PM
Nationalisation :o those Communist loonies!! Funny how there aren't to many on saying 'I told ye so'.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on September 29, 2008, 03:52:03 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on September 29, 2008, 01:01:17 PM
Nationalisation :o those Communist loonies!! Funny how there aren't to many on saying 'I told ye so'.

The disaster is still current. During a tsunami/volcano etc while you are fighting for your life you dont see too many 'told you so' types and the blame game hasn't started in earnest yet for the same reason.  

When the crisis is finally over that will all start.

For the record I'd say history (with the predictable exception of parts of the American media and GOP) will blame the Dubya administration (Paulson excepted). He inherited a healthy economy with balanced books. He went to pay for an unwise war by printing dollars and when the credit crunch hit the US economy (and the dollar) couldn't cope. 10% of their banks have failed so far this year. The markets dont seem to be too impressed today either so the worst may be yet to come.

Any Irish sneering at their misfortune should look at the ISEQ. Early last year it hit 10,000, today it is 3,320 (at the time of posting). We are being being massacred today alone. We are probably the worst performing SE on earth. We could be looking at very high interest rates in the States in the near future. If that happens the Euro, God help Ireland.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on September 29, 2008, 06:45:27 PM
The House of Representatives votes NO!!  :o

If the markets were rough today wait till tomorrow.  ???

DOW Jones down 6% or 690 points. Unbelievable.

Markets may not open tomorrow. Time for a pint.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: ludermor on September 29, 2008, 06:46:19 PM
what happens now?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on September 29, 2008, 06:57:13 PM
Quote from: ludermor on September 29, 2008, 06:46:19 PM
what happens now?

If it was Ireland they would vote again and again.

Hard to know what happens. Party ideology seems to have scuppered it. Republicans seemd to think this was A commie trojan horse.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: passedit on September 29, 2008, 07:07:43 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 29, 2008, 06:57:13 PM
Quote from: ludermor on September 29, 2008, 06:46:19 PM
what happens now?

If it was Ireland they would vote again and again.

Hard to know what happens. Party ideology seems to have scuppered it. Republicans seemd to think this was A commie trojan horse.

This appears to be what is happening?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: heganboy on September 29, 2008, 07:08:10 PM
classic- nasdaw has stopped trading- maybe even on purpose...
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: give her dixie on September 29, 2008, 07:09:50 PM
The sky is falling in.....
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on September 29, 2008, 07:18:57 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 29, 2008, 06:45:27 PM
The House of Representatives votes NO!!  :o

If the markets were rough today wait till tomorrow.  ???

DOW Jones down 6% or 690 points. Unbelievable.

Markets may not open tomorrow. Time for a pint.
and to think the early falls on the dow were attributed to 'Wall Street not liking the amount of conditions included in the bill', you know the type of thing, 1. You can't just use the money for salaries and bonuses  2. You will have to repay the money over the years.....
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: mannix on September 29, 2008, 07:34:01 PM
fan. shit. hit.
do the wordplay. Looks like a disaster could unfold.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: pintsofguinness on September 29, 2008, 07:35:45 PM
Quote from: ludermor on September 29, 2008, 06:46:19 PM
what happens now?
Just what I was going to ask.   ???

Are the banks just going to be left to collapse? 
Can one of you smart boys not put the affects of this in plain english?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Declan on September 29, 2008, 07:52:50 PM
QuoteCan one of you smart boys not put the affects of this in plain english?

Don't think anyone can honestly predict what's going to happen next. This is history in the making and the consequences for the next 25/30 years could be huge.
In reality there is no real connection between the bail out for the states and the problems with Irish banks but in times of panic everything is linked - That's globalisation for ye!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on September 29, 2008, 07:54:33 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on September 29, 2008, 07:35:45 PM
Quote from: ludermor on September 29, 2008, 06:46:19 PM
what happens now?
Just what I was going to ask.   ???

Are the banks just going to be left to collapse? 
Can one of you smart boys not put the affects of this in plain english?
well not a smart boy - but, there is talk that bush is going to railroad this through regardless using special executive powers he granted himself recently.  If not, it might be for the best that this failed as it allows the system to work itself out and allows those who created (or were oblivious to) the problems to be properly punished and in time the capital markets will get back to doing what they should do - ie provide capital, the whole basis for this was in order to have banks start trusting each other again more quickly than will happen is things are left to evolve normally, but it would have been at enormous cost to the taxpayer.
It'll still probably go through is some shape or form is my bet.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: J70 on September 29, 2008, 08:16:36 PM
Can Bush do that? I thought his spending proposals had to be approved by congress? Can't see him getting away with something like that without setting off some kind of constitutional crisis.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on September 29, 2008, 08:23:18 PM
I am financially illiterate so take this with a serious health warning.

The rates at which banks lend to each other, typically very short term loans, stayed high today, even when the plan looked on. That means banks would have continued not lending to each other even if it went through. With the cancer of sub-prime still on their books they will not lend now.

Banks not lending will have a massive impact on business, industry, banking and of course property. Economic growth will grind to a halt. Any business anywhere experiencing cash flow problems, that in any other scenario would borrow money, will probably fail. Big rise in unemployment on the way.

Consider the US bankrupcy protection. If you have a contact to supply something to a business that files for Chapter 11 protection you will, by law, have to continue supplying without being paid. Businesses will become as paranoid as the banks are about doing business.

Likely tax increases here. I am praying that the (relatively very young) Euro doesn't wobble or else we will have interest rate rises.

Recession will seem like heaven in a few months. depression will be the order of the day.

However I expect the sun to rise tomorrow, despite everything.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: magickingdom on September 29, 2008, 08:27:15 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 29, 2008, 08:23:18 PM
I am financially illiterate so take this with a serious health warning.

The rates at which banks lend to each other, typically very short term loans, stayed high today, even when the plan looked on. That means banks would have continued not lending to each other even if it went through. With the cancer of sub-prime still on their books they will not lend now.

Banks not lending will have a massive impact on business, industry, banking and of course property. Economic growth will grind to a halt. Any business anywhere experiencing cash flow problems, that in any other scenario would borrow money, will probably fail. Big rise in unemployment on the way.

Consider the US bankrupcy protection. If you have a contact to supply something to a business that files for Chapter 11 protection you will, by law, have to continue supplying without being paid. Businesses will become as paranoid as the banks are about doing business.

Likely tax increases here. I am praying that the (relatively very young) Euro doesn't wobble or else we will have interest rate rises.

Recession will seem like heaven in a few months. depression will be the order of the day.

However I expect the sun to rise tomorrow, despite everything.

you get paid for any goods supplied after the chapter 11 filing, its the supplies before that that you might lose out on
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on September 29, 2008, 08:31:27 PM
Quote from: magickingdom on September 29, 2008, 08:27:15 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 29, 2008, 08:23:18 PM
I am financially illiterate so take this with a serious health warning.

The rates at which banks lend to each other, typically very short term loans, stayed high today, even when the plan looked on. That means banks would have continued not lending to each other even if it went through. With the cancer of sub-prime still on their books they will not lend now.

Banks not lending will have a massive impact on business, industry, banking and of course property. Economic growth will grind to a halt. Any business anywhere experiencing cash flow problems, that in any other scenario would borrow money, will probably fail. Big rise in unemployment on the way.

Consider the US bankrupcy protection. If you have a contact to supply something to a business that files for Chapter 11 protection you will, by law, have to continue supplying without being paid. Businesses will become as paranoid as the banks are about doing business.

Likely tax increases here. I am praying that the (relatively very young) Euro doesn't wobble or else we will have interest rate rises.

Recession will seem like heaven in a few months. depression will be the order of the day.

However I expect the sun to rise tomorrow, despite everything.

you get paid for any goods supplied after the chapter 11 filing, its the supplies before that that you might lose out on

I stand corrected.

Does that apply to staff?

Still it would mean cash on delivery or up front only, definately no credit.

Tomorrow will be interesting in the States, particularly for the high street banks. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: pintsofguinness on September 29, 2008, 08:33:45 PM
So if the banks wont/cant lend to each other, they won't/can't lend to people and businesses and everything is fucked?
All very interesting lads - and depresssing

Are the UK/Irish banks in as bad a situation as the US banks or is this something that's going to spread to us?

What exactly was the start of all of this - was it simply down to too much money being loaned out?


Why are people queuing at atm machines?  ???
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Down Gael on September 29, 2008, 08:37:44 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on September 29, 2008, 08:33:45 PM
Why are people queuing at atm machines?  ???

Where is this happenning? Surely this isnt happening in Ireland?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: pintsofguinness on September 29, 2008, 08:42:23 PM
It was mentioned on the credit crunch thread - I assumed it was the US?
How a couple of hundred dollars is going to help I'm not sure?  ???
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on September 29, 2008, 08:45:53 PM
The risk is to the value of money rather than anybody's bank deposits which are guaranteed. Running to ATMs gains you nothing but could trigger a run on a bank. The Pleb Factor is always a major threat.

To be honest all predictions of the near future go out the window if Joe Public stampedes into panic territory.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: magickingdom on September 29, 2008, 08:54:04 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on September 29, 2008, 08:33:45 PM
So if the banks wont/cant lend to each other, they won't/can't lend to people and businesses and everything is fucked?
All very interesting lads - and depresssing

Are the UK/Irish banks in as bad a situation as the US banks or is this something that's going to spread to us?

What exactly was the start of all of this - was it simply down to too much money being loaned out?


Why are people queuing at atm machines?  ???

my understanding of what has happened is basically that banks gave out buckets of mortgages which they had as assets on their balance sheets earning nice profits in their p&ls, they then often sold on these mortgages or in some cases sold on the risks associated with these mortgages (credit swaps/derivatives or basically insurance in plain english) leaving themselves with strong balance sheets and lent even more and thus more profits.... and on and on till the insurance co and other holders of these sub mortgages had problems collecting and they started defaulting and suddenly the risk was back with the banks who no longer had strong balance sheets - hence the mad rush for capital
as muppet said its the money markets thats the problem, banks wont lend to each other because of a lack of confidence (they shouldnt have lent to each other last year either but they had confidence then!). the argument can be made that the bail out is bull and the markets should be let fall and flush the junk out of the system however this would be very painfull but in the very very long term maybe right (nor should they have stopped short selling as it stops market inefficiency's (short sellers outed enron)). so by buying the junk the us gov hopes that confidence will return to the money markets and inter bank lending will resume. also by taking equity stakes in banks the us gov will shore up banks capital but every bank in the world will still have to write off huge losses in the next couple of years in order to get their balance sheets right
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on September 29, 2008, 09:24:47 PM
So if the banks wont/cant lend to each other, they won't/can't lend to people and businesses and everything is fucked?
All very interesting lads - and depresssing

Exactly, the thing is there's absolutely no guarantee that this was going to solve that problem in the short term anyway, but granted, it might have.  Whilst Muppet is right that if banks are unwilling to loan to businesses etc there will be serious repercussions, this bailout may well have led to serious problems in the sider economy anyway, as the us taxpayer would have to fund it, it could have created inflation, higher taxes would have seemed inevitable, govt spending would have to have been reduced etc, all of which go towards creating economic trouble.

Are the UK/Irish banks in as bad a situation as the US banks or is this something that's going to spread to us?
UK banks, I don't really know about (well, i don't really know about any of this, but), however given that several have already gone by the wayside it certainly seems like they're in bother.  The UK banks that have went under so far had basically lent too much money out to customers as opposed to the assets they have, they were relying on both steady repayments from customers and being able to access the money markets readily and at cheap interest rates.  Many of these loans were buy to let loans which are coming under pressure now, possibly they also didn't take the precautions regarding proper vetting of the people they were loaning to, as a result they are having higher levels of default.  More importantly, other banks see their loan books and decide that they're not going to lend them any more money at cheap rate, meaning whilst they have large amounts of assets, they can't access cash and can't repay their loans which are coming due, hence they're fcuked.
Several Irish banks appear pretty much fcuked imo, they are supposed to have loaned out over 100Bn to developers backed by assets which are worth maybe half that at this stage.  They are also exposed to buy-to-let and residential mortgages, which again are backed by assets which may not cover the loans.  In addition, any sort of economic downturn leaves many of these mortgages advanced in serious jeopardy, this is because the amounts involved were large multiples of incomes, incomes that frequently were less than honest.  The buy-to-let in particular could be in serious bother as our immigrants migrate to follow work.  Certainly the markets seem to think that irish banks are in serious bother, and the irish economy by default.
What exactly was the start of all of this - was it simply down to too much money being loaned out?
Basically it's very different between ireland, uk and us.
US - Property boom fuelled by low interest rates after sept 11.  NINJA (Ni Income No Job Assets) and LIAR (may be an acronym, basically lies on applications, left unquestioned on a nudge, nudge, wink wink basis) mortgages, applicants were never going to be able to pay these in the long run, but it didn't matter because the companies who loaned the money originally sold these loans on to other banks.  These other banks were happy to buy them because they believed them to be real mortgages and indeed the packages they were sold included all sorts of mortgages (which is part of the problem now) and they gave good rates of returns.  As a result we had the ludicrous situation where banks in France, Germany etc were buying these US loans whilst in their own countries they wouldn't give people a mortgage without a 30% deposit.  It get more and more complicated as banks traded these loans with each other in all sorts of different exotic products which all paid great rates of return, no lose really, too good to be true actually.  So the problem now is that there are thousands of billions of these loans in the system somewhere, but nobody knows who has them, thus you can't loan money to another bank because they may be the one who has a worthless loan book.  
Ireland - property boom fuelled by low interest rates after sept 11, govt policy to keep on boosting an already booming construction industry, banks loaning far too much based on the assumption that property prices don't can't fall and many false assumptions such as 'ireland's different' 'young population' 'economic prosperity will last forever cos we're so productive' 'irish love property'.......  otherwise known as a pyramid scheme
UK - see ireland and us together, low interest rates, rise of buy-to-let as the new pension (God knows it couldn't be worse than actual pensions now ;)) etc etc


Why are people queuing at atm machines?  ???


Cos they're so depressed by what's going on they've decided to hit the pub?

Anyway I don't know if that clarified anything or not, but it's as much as I could do.

PS, didn't see anything more on that Bush special powers to railroad it through - might just have been normal internet bullshit, but...
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: DrinknHarp on September 29, 2008, 09:25:27 PM
Banks are now not lending to each other or to their customers.  Dow records its biggest closing point drop in history.

Small bussinesses are f#@ked all together now.

Many of the bigger companies will not be able to make payroll or pay suppliers due to lag from service/product to customer paying the company which is a normal  time frame 0f 15-90 days depending on terms. Most large companies borrow money for this lag time from the banks and now will not be able to do what has been normal .

A cash society will be the norm for the future. No lending to the average JOE so the economy which relies on credit for EVERYTHING is doomed.

Time to open a bar (most drink in hard times) or an auto supply/mechanic shop because people will not be able to buy new cars for a long time.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: DrinknHarp on September 29, 2008, 09:28:54 PM
Republicans voted against the bailout. McCain was blasting Obama and the Dems that they should vote for the bailout.....OOOPS :o
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: pintsofguinness on September 29, 2008, 10:06:22 PM
Cheers for those great responses, a lot of interesting stuff in there.

The end line is that we're pretty much fucked isn't it  :(  What have we to look forward to? Mass unemployment, higher interest rates? increasing prices? Sounds like a long hard winter!
In my limited knowledge on the subject (obviously) I tend to think we're better to take what's thrown at us and flush out the system rather than prop it up artificially?  Maybe that's the wrong view though.   Looks like they're going to still try and pass the plan though.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Tony Baloney on September 29, 2008, 10:11:59 PM
Looks like we're fucked. I'd say there is some craic in the White House this evening! Looks like they're gonna have to try again. Looks like the only way the Republicans will be appeased if heads roll in the banks and ideally some people get locked up!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Down Gael on September 29, 2008, 10:17:19 PM
Would this $700 billion (and whatever New Labia are spending on B&B) not be better spent on Joe Public who are going to be hit hardest in this credit crunch? Surely this bail out is only going to help the people who created this crisis and who have been on huge salaries and bonuses for selling mortgagaes and loans to people who couldnt afford them.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: ExiledGael on September 29, 2008, 10:19:51 PM
Quote from: Tony Baloney on September 29, 2008, 10:11:59 PM
Looks like we're fucked. I'd say there is some craic in the White House this evening! Looks like they're gonna have to try again. Looks like the only way the Republicans will be appeased if heads roll in the banks and ideally some people get locked up!

Sounds reasonable.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Tony Baloney on September 29, 2008, 10:29:23 PM
Quote from: Down Gael on September 29, 2008, 10:17:19 PM
Would this $700 billion (and whatever New Labia are spending on B&B) not be better spent on Joe Public who are going to be hit hardest in this credit crunch? Surely this bail out is only going to help the people who created this crisis and who have been on huge salaries and bonuses for selling mortgagaes and loans to people who couldnt afford them.
You'd think. As Minder says if you screw up you pay, if the banks screw up you pay! Some of those bankers will have to live on their 50 million dollar bonuses so let's not be too harsh on them!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: give her dixie on September 29, 2008, 10:31:42 PM
Thankfully we have Sam and Tom to take our minds of things for the next year....
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: ardal on September 29, 2008, 10:32:56 PM
Quote from: Tony Baloney on September 29, 2008, 10:11:59 PM
Looks like we're fucked. I'd say there is some craic in the White House this evening! Looks like they're gonna have to try again. Looks like the only way the Republicans will be appeased if heads roll in the banks and ideally some people get locked up!

Maybe one of yea could clarify this. If inflation is increasing (ie the price of everything) then why do banks / states increase the interest rates on mortgages etc when they know it's more difficult for people to pay? Personnaly I'd rather be receiving some money from mortage repayments than have to take their home and try to sell it in a market which isn't buying. Is it not simply a case that those, like major share holders etc, still want their big fat 15 or 20% profit no matter what damage it does to the country (there are no countries only economies) or the joe bloggs on the street?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: DrinknHarp on September 29, 2008, 11:11:24 PM
Quote from: ardal on September 29, 2008, 10:32:56 PM
Quote from: Tony Baloney on September 29, 2008, 10:11:59 PM
Looks like we're fucked. I'd say there is some craic in the White House this evening! Looks like they're gonna have to try again. Looks like the only way the Republicans will be appeased if heads roll in the banks and ideally some people get locked up!

Maybe one of yea could clarify this. If inflation is increasing (ie the price of everything) then why do banks / states increase the interest rates on mortgages etc when they know it's more difficult for people to pay? Personnaly I'd rather be receiving some money from mortage repayments than have to take their home and try to sell it in a market which isn't buying. Is it not simply a case that those, like major share holders etc, still want their big fat 15 or 20% profit no matter what damage it does to the country (there are no countries only economies) or the joe bloggs on the street?

Mortgage rates are at a historic all time low 6%. The problem lies with who the banks lent the money to- people who didn't really qualify for the loans. Intrest only loans seem to be the big culprit in the bank scandal.

You are correct were the greed for profit has plagued the overall bottom line. You would think the banks would work with their customers, getting at least 600 on a 1300 a month mortgage would be better then the alternative, foreclosing on a house that now has lost 20-40% of its value and now you can't even find a buyer because you are no longer lending credit.

Now the bank is sitting on property that they have to pay property taxes on and in the meantime the value of the property keeps decreasing to were if they sell it the end up taking 40 to 50 cents on the dollar instead of working with their original customer(homeowner) and taking 60 to 80 cents on the dollar to the econmy improves. ??? ::)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: magickingdom on September 29, 2008, 11:28:40 PM
Quote from: ardal on September 29, 2008, 10:32:56 PM
Quote from: Tony Baloney on September 29, 2008, 10:11:59 PM
Looks like we're fucked. I'd say there is some craic in the White House this evening! Looks like they're gonna have to try again. Looks like the only way the Republicans will be appeased if heads roll in the banks and ideally some people get locked up!

Maybe one of yea could clarify this. If inflation is increasing (ie the price of everything) then why do banks / states increase the interest rates on mortgages etc when they know it's more difficult for people to pay? Personnaly I'd rather be receiving some money from mortage repayments than have to take their home and try to sell it in a market which isn't buying. Is it not simply a case that those, like major share holders etc, still want their big fat 15 or 20% profit no matter what damage it does to the country (there are no countries only economies) or the joe bloggs on the street?


if inflation is increasing the central banks raise interest rates in order to make money more expensive, this slows down demand which takes the presure off prices and reduces/gets rid off the rate of inflation
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on September 30, 2008, 03:21:58 AM
Just back from the beer I mentioned earlier.

Shouldn't have gone.

From what I hear Irish banking will not be the same by lunchtime today. Better stay in bed.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: stephenite on September 30, 2008, 03:49:28 AM
Do tell?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: J70 on September 30, 2008, 04:02:40 AM
Quote from: Down Gael on September 29, 2008, 10:17:19 PM
Would this $700 billion (and whatever New Labia are spending on B&B) not be better spent on Joe Public who are going to be hit hardest in this credit crunch? Surely this bail out is only going to help the people who created this crisis and who have been on huge salaries and bonuses for selling mortgagaes and loans to people who couldnt afford them.

That appears to be the interpretation that the US public have put on it, which is why the politicians facing tough reelection battles are afraid to vote for the bill. However, its not like Wall St exists on a different planet to regular people. If Wall St is fucked, everyone is, which is the point that Paulson and the Bush administration have been trying to make. Its not like the general public can tell the banks and traders to go to hell and it won't affect them. Mortgages, car loans, student loans, the whole bloody shebang will be affected.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Lecale2 on September 30, 2008, 08:28:43 AM
Just heard that the Irish Government is guaranteeing all bank deposits in order to avoid a run on the banks. Stock markets falling after big falls in Asia and USA over night.

What's the story on Irish Banks?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Lecale2 on September 30, 2008, 08:30:01 AM
It's on RTE now.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/0930/economy.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/0930/economy.html)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Zapatista on September 30, 2008, 08:49:31 AM
Does it not basically boil down to the fact that with the current capitalist system in the US (and by extention Ireland) allows money to filter to the top?

A small percentage of people have all the money. The rest of the money is rising towards them. The poor distribution of cash has left the large percentage with little or no cash. In order for the large percentage to have a home/car etc. they must use credit as the cash is simple not available to them. The were willingly given the credit and believed all was well but the cash through repayments and elsewhere has continued to filter to the top. This is your basic pyramid scheme (which is illegal here :o). Now that the banks and creditors have drained all the capital available from the larger percentage the shit has hit the fan.

Would a more equal distribution of wealth have prevented this? Would it prevent it now? Would any 700 billion injection under the current system not eventually head in the same direction?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: bcarrier on September 30, 2008, 09:18:08 AM
Brian Lenihan saves the world  ;)

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on September 30, 2008, 09:33:28 AM
Quote from: muppet on September 30, 2008, 03:21:58 AM
Just back from the beer I mentioned earlier.

Shouldn't have gone.

From what I hear Irish banking will not be the same by lunchtime today. Better stay in bed.



Beer on a Monday night is never a good thing unless you've just won the AI - In that instance, it's almost compulsory !  ;) :D

Good news for Irish banking ?

Will UK and other governments follow suit ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on September 30, 2008, 10:06:53 AM
Quote from: orangeman on September 30, 2008, 09:33:28 AM
Quote from: muppet on September 30, 2008, 03:21:58 AM
Just back from the beer I mentioned earlier.

Shouldn't have gone.

From what I hear Irish banking will not be the same by lunchtime today. Better stay in bed.



Beer on a Monday night is never a good thing unless you've just won the AI - In that instance, it's almost compulsory !  ;) :D

Good news for Irish banking ?

Will UK and other governments follow suit ?

I don't know the ins and outs of it yet, but it seems to be a massive piece of bluffing by lenno - if he were ever asked to pay up, he couldn't, i suppose it depends on how long it will be before the markets either test his promise or just decide to disbelieve him.  If he has to come up with the goods, it'll be a disaster for the taxpayer.  We're currently talking about the budget from hell coming up because tax revenues are short by 7bn on estimates (you have to wonder what idiot came up with the estimates), yet the minister finds it okay to guarantee over €400Bn of loans made by banks?  If 10% go bad (probably not an unreasonable assumption) that's €40 Bn, almost our total annual budget.
It would have been a better idea to force some mergers between the banks who appeared in serious bother yesterday and the ones who just appeared in bother.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Down Gael on September 30, 2008, 10:55:04 AM
Which of the banks are in serious difficulty and more importantly how safe is the Ulster Bank in the north and the Permanent TSB in the south?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on September 30, 2008, 10:57:11 AM
Thinking about it more, I can just see the situation in NY at present, John Paulson and the other hedge fund lads have been woken up early, they've been told about the latest developments in Ireland, now Ireland doesn't normally warrant waing up early for, sure they've a few quid in short bets against irish banks, but now, they've an opportunity to make serious cash, and they will.  Probably before the day is out, these guys will have figured out just how they can make a guaranteed profit from this move.  The trouble with coming up schemes like this on the run is that you can't possibly cover all the eventualities and I'll be shocked if they haven't left a few gaps wide open to exploitation.

http://www.reuters.com/article/hedgeFundsNews/idUSLNE48S0AG20080930
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on September 30, 2008, 10:58:59 AM
Quote from: Down Gael on September 30, 2008, 10:55:04 AM
Which of the banks are in serious difficulty and more importantly how safe is the Ulster Bank in the north and the Permanent TSB in the south?
safe as houses :D

Sorry couldn't resist, ulster are owned by RBS - the UK govt. have thusfar protected everything and I can't see that changing.
IL&P have all the advantages that the irish govt has just awarded them as outlined above.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on September 30, 2008, 10:59:45 AM
Quote from: Bogball XV on September 30, 2008, 10:06:53 AM
Quote from: orangeman on September 30, 2008, 09:33:28 AM
Quote from: muppet on September 30, 2008, 03:21:58 AM
Just back from the beer I mentioned earlier.

Shouldn't have gone.

From what I hear Irish banking will not be the same by lunchtime today. Better stay in bed.



Beer on a Monday night is never a good thing unless you've just won the AI - In that instance, it's almost compulsory !  ;) :D

Good news for Irish banking ?

Will UK and other governments follow suit ?

I don't know the ins and outs of it yet, but it seems to be a massive piece of bluffing by lenno - if he were ever asked to pay up, he couldn't, i suppose it depends on how long it will be before the markets either test his promise or just decide to disbelieve him.  If he has to come up with the goods, it'll be a disaster for the taxpayer.  We're currently talking about the budget from hell coming up because tax revenues are short by 7bn on estimates (you have to wonder what idiot came up with the estimates), yet the minister finds it okay to guarantee over €400Bn of loans made by banks?  If 10% go bad (probably not an unreasonable assumption) that's €40 Bn, almost our total annual budget.
It would have been a better idea to force some mergers between the banks who appeared in serious bother yesterday and the ones who just appeared in bother.

Agreed. So far it is the greatest and probably the most stupid gamble in the history of the state. They should have nationalised one bank (or 2 if they could afford it) and let the others go. Now all it takes is another day or two in the markets like yesterday and we will have taxes like we have never seen before.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on September 30, 2008, 12:08:39 PM
Thinking about it more our Government have just underwritten €500 Billion. Presumably believing that they will never have to pay up.

To put that in context (assuming there are 5 million of us to pay it back, which there isn't considering that all retirees should be excluded) that gives us:

€500 Billion/ 5 million people = we all have a bet of €100,000 each that this works out.

Thanks Brian.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Zapatista on September 30, 2008, 12:42:38 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 30, 2008, 10:59:45 AM
Quote from: Bogball XV on September 30, 2008, 10:06:53 AM
Quote from: orangeman on September 30, 2008, 09:33:28 AM
Quote from: muppet on September 30, 2008, 03:21:58 AM
Just back from the beer I mentioned earlier.

Shouldn't have gone.

From what I hear Irish banking will not be the same by lunchtime today. Better stay in bed.



Beer on a Monday night is never a good thing unless you've just won the AI - In that instance, it's almost compulsory !  ;) :D

Good news for Irish banking ?

Will UK and other governments follow suit ?

I don't know the ins and outs of it yet, but it seems to be a massive piece of bluffing by lenno - if he were ever asked to pay up, he couldn't, i suppose it depends on how long it will be before the markets either test his promise or just decide to disbelieve him.  If he has to come up with the goods, it'll be a disaster for the taxpayer.  We're currently talking about the budget from hell coming up because tax revenues are short by 7bn on estimates (you have to wonder what idiot came up with the estimates), yet the minister finds it okay to guarantee over €400Bn of loans made by banks?  If 10% go bad (probably not an unreasonable assumption) that's €40 Bn, almost our total annual budget.
It would have been a better idea to force some mergers between the banks who appeared in serious bother yesterday and the ones who just appeared in bother.

Agreed. So far it is the greatest and probably the most stupid gamble in the history of the state. They should have nationalised one bank (or 2 if they could afford it) and let the others go. Now all it takes is another day or two in the markets like yesterday and we will have taxes like we have never seen before.


:o :o :o

Surely they can't take economic advice from Gerry Adams?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: bcarrier on September 30, 2008, 12:58:37 PM
FFS lads this is good news.  The Irish banks are now particularly attractive for deposits . The money will flow in and the immediate " cashflow" issue should be resolved.

Personally I think selling off good assets in a fire sale at the ( near) bottom of the market while retaining the poor ones - as the Uk have done with B&B is a way worse decision.





Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Gnevin on September 30, 2008, 01:20:41 PM
Surely the Irish banks are solid now?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Zapatista on September 30, 2008, 01:22:27 PM
We need to look very carefully where the money for this is coming from. Learn from our mistakes and not let it happen again. Prevention measures need to be put in place.
This problem has been evident in countries across the world for a long time. To think Ireland and the US etc could escape it is ridiculous. As the gap between the rich and the poor becomes wider and more definite the collapse of the movement of money is inevitable. Like our forests, if you keep taken from the forrest and putting in a warehouse eventually there will be nothing left in the forest to move. If you put back what you take then it can continue to move.

Like in countries such as Mexico. The gap is that wide and definite that those at the bottom struggle to livewhile those at the top keep trying to take more. So much so that even if they work for the rest of their lives and their children's lives they will never pay the debts to those they owe (mainly the US). Modern day slavery.

There is no less money in the world today as there was last year. The problem is that it is all collected in a small area and the movement is restricted. If I have 100 million euro I will not need to borrow but will lend and have more returned. After a while I have more and you have less. Eventually I will have it all but it will be a while before I notice it. If it does not move back down to you, you cannot repay our debts and will lose your homes. You will be in debt to me forever. Many 3rd world countries will never pay their debts. We have ignored this for years. It will happen here if we don't change the systems. Instead of owing money to countries we will owe it to private business.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on September 30, 2008, 01:39:04 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on September 30, 2008, 01:22:27 PM
We need to look very carefully where the money for this is coming from. Learn from our mistakes and not let it happen again. Prevention measures need to be put in place.
This problem has been evident in countries across the world for a long time. To think Ireland and the US etc could escape it is ridiculous. As the gap between the rich and the poor becomes wider and more definite the collapse of the movement of money is inevitable. Like our forests, if you keep taken from the forrest and putting in a warehouse eventually there will be nothing left in the forest to move. If you put back what you take then it can continue to move.

Like in countries such as Mexico. The gap is that wide and definite that those at the bottom struggle to livewhile those at the top keep trying to take more. So much so that even if they work for the rest of their lives and their children's lives they will never pay the debts to those they owe (mainly the US). Modern day slavery.

There is no less money in the world today as there was last year. The problem is that it is all collected in a small area and the movement is restricted. If I have 100 million euro I will not need to borrow but will lend and have more returned. After a while I have more and you have less. Eventually I will have it all but it will be a while before I notice it. If it does not move back down to you, you cannot repay our debts and will lose your homes. You will be in debt to me forever. Many 3rd world countries will never pay their debts. We have ignored this for years. It will happen here if we don't change the systems. Instead of owing money to countries we will owe it to private business.


Where is the money now ? Who is in control of it ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Zapatista on September 30, 2008, 01:48:22 PM
the 10% of the wealthiest people in the world. Bill Gates and what not. The USs have 700billion lying about there somewhere. Shell have a few billion etc.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on September 30, 2008, 01:55:33 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on September 30, 2008, 12:58:37 PM
FFS lads this is good news.  The Irish banks are now particularly attractive for deposits . The money will flow in and the immediate " cashflow" issue should be resolved.
It might be, it might not be, I don't believe for one second that anyone knows how this is going to pan out - i do believe that there will be consequences that we have not yet forseen.
For example the state's credit rating may be lowered and that 10bn we've to borrow for the budget is going to cost more.

What happens if a bank does default, only one, say to the tune of about 10bn, previously the state had to guarantee €20K of savings, then €100K of savings, now all savings plus monies owed by that bank have been guaranteed, who will get paid first?  What happens when the money to repay runs out?  How long do you think would you have to wait before you got your money?

I don't know lads, it's a panicked action and that's rarely a good action.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on September 30, 2008, 02:06:21 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on September 30, 2008, 01:55:33 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on September 30, 2008, 12:58:37 PM
FFS lads this is good news.  The Irish banks are now particularly attractive for deposits . The money will flow in and the immediate " cashflow" issue should be resolved.
It might be, it might not be, I don't believe for one second that anyone knows how this is going to pan out - i do believe that there will be consequences that we have not yet forseen.
For example the state's credit rating may be lowered and that 10bn we've to borrow for the budget is going to cost more.

What happens if a bank does default, only one, say to the tune of about 10bn, previously the state had to guarantee €20K of savings, then €100K of savings, now all savings plus monies owed by that bank have been guaranteed, who will get paid first?  What happens when the money to repay runs out?  How long do you think would you have to wait before you got your money?

I don't know lads, it's a panicked action and that's rarely a good action.


Some of the things you're talking about may never happen - eg banks defualting - but guaranteeing deposits will hopefully ensure there isn't a run on the banks thereby creating stability.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Lecale2 on September 30, 2008, 02:33:11 PM
Why do you think it may never happen? I would suggest that evidence from UK, USA and Benelux indicates that these guarantees will be required and some of funds will be drawn down. I don't have any idea which bank will do it first but I reckon one of them will, probably within the next week.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on September 30, 2008, 02:34:48 PM
Quote from: Lecale2 on September 30, 2008, 02:33:11 PM
Why do you think it may never happen? I would suggest that evidence from UK, USA and Benelux indicates that these guarantees will be required and some of funds will be drawn down. I don't have any idea which bank will do it first but I reckon one of them will, probably within the next week.


Don't think so - there's a fair degree of liquiidity in there at the moment, I think !  ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Sideshow Bob on September 30, 2008, 02:39:29 PM
Need a bit of advice here folks.


A few years ago a friend of a friend of a friend approached me to say he needed to borrow some money. He was willing to pay it back in installments and add a sizeable bit on top. I didn't have all the cash he wanted but I could see that I could make a few bob on the deal so I borrowed some cash from other friends and relatives to lend to him. He kept making payments and so I borrowed some more to lend to him. I had heard rumours that he wasn't the most reliable of people, but he was paying the installments as planned so everyone was happy, especially me because I was creaming off the top, and quite frankly living the high life on the back of the deal.

That's when it all started to go pearshaped. The payments stopped and I have had to start digging into my savings to pay back the friends and relatives I borrowed money from. The guy tells me he has some 'cashflow' problems and shows no interest in paying what he owes me. It is worse than that. I hadn't told the friends and relatives that I had lent their money to some dodgy geezer but now it all looks like it is going to come out.

I have tried to borrow money from other friends to keep my head above water but they are saying , unsurprisingly that there is no way.

I think I am fooked. What shall I do? I think I may be out of a job soon too, and although I able to claim state benefits I am not sure they will want to pay back the money I have borrowed and Lent out as well (although they might?). What do you think?

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on September 30, 2008, 02:43:24 PM
Quote from: Sideshow Bob on September 30, 2008, 02:39:29 PM
Need a bit of advice here folks.


A few years ago a friend of a friend of a friend approached me to say he needed to borrow some money. He was willing to pay it back in installments and add a sizeable bit on top. I didn't have all the cash he wanted but I could see that I could make a few bob on the deal so I borrowed some cash from other friends and relatives to lend to him. He kept making payments and so I borrowed some more to lend to him. I had heard rumours that he wasn't the most reliable of people, but he was paying the installments as planned so everyone was happy, especially me because I was creaming off the top, and quite frankly living the high life on the back of the deal.

That's when it all started to go pearshaped. The payments stopped and I have had to start digging into my savings to pay back the friends and relatives I borrowed money from. The guy tells me he has some 'cashflow' problems and shows no interest in paying what he owes me. It is worse than that. I hadn't told the friends and relatives that I had lent their money to some dodgy geezer but now it all looks like it is going to come out.

I have tried to borrow money from other friends to keep my head above water but they are saying , unsurprisingly that there is no way.

I think I am fooked. What shall I do? I think I may be out of a job soon too, and although I able to claim state benefits I am not sure they will want to pay back the money I have borrowed and Lent out as well (although they might?). What do you think?




You think ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on September 30, 2008, 02:49:52 PM
Quote from: orangeman on September 30, 2008, 02:06:21 PMSome of the things you're talking about may never happen - eg banks defualting - but guaranteeing deposits will hopefully ensure there isn't a run on the banks thereby creating stability.
I know it may never happen and I know why this has been done, imo without it, at least one irish bank would no longer be with us in its current form, but that is not necessarily a bad thing (unless you happen to be a shareholder in one of the institutions that would very likely have went under today).  Tbh Lenihan's game is based on the bluff that he will never actually have to pay up, the move was to ensure confidence, but as I say the consequences of the guarantee are anybody's guess.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on September 30, 2008, 02:55:12 PM
Quote from: Sideshow Bob on September 30, 2008, 02:39:29 PM
Need a bit of advice here folks.


A few years ago a friend of a friend of a friend approached me to say he needed to borrow some money. He was willing to pay it back in installments and add a sizeable bit on top. I didn't have all the cash he wanted but I could see that I could make a few bob on the deal so I borrowed some cash from other friends and relatives to lend to him. He kept making payments and so I borrowed some more to lend to him. I had heard rumours that he wasn't the most reliable of people, but he was paying the installments as planned so everyone was happy, especially me because I was creaming off the top, and quite frankly living the high life on the back of the deal.

That's when it all started to go pearshaped. The payments stopped and I have had to start digging into my savings to pay back the friends and relatives I borrowed money from. The guy tells me he has some 'cashflow' problems and shows no interest in paying what he owes me. It is worse than that. I hadn't told the friends and relatives that I had lent their money to some dodgy geezer but now it all looks like it is going to come out.

I have tried to borrow money from other friends to keep my head above water but they are saying , unsurprisingly that there is no way.

I think I am fooked. What shall I do? I think I may be out of a job soon too, and although I able to claim state benefits I am not sure they will want to pay back the money I have borrowed and Lent out as well (although they might?). What do you think?


Bob, the last thing you should ever do on a discussion board like this is reveal your identity, now I can almost identify you from the above so I suggest you delete your post, before one of your 'mates' who you borrowed from figures out what you've done with their money.  Might I suggest that for a long term solution you go back to the auld sod as state hand-outs tend to be more generous there.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Over the Bar on September 30, 2008, 02:55:27 PM
I have a super solution to this problem.  What don't the US sell Alaska back to the Russians?  I'm sure the'd get at least $1000 billion form it and this would save the banking system AND get rid of Sarah Palin in one fell swoop!  
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on September 30, 2008, 03:09:35 PM
Quote from: Over the Bar on September 30, 2008, 02:55:27 PM
I have a super solution to this problem.  What don't the US sell Alaska back to the Russians?  I'm sure the'd get at least $1000 billion form it and this would save the banking system AND get rid of Sarah Palin in one fell swoop!  
good call, and sure an irish bank can put up the finance!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Sideshow Bob on September 30, 2008, 05:58:49 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on September 30, 2008, 02:55:12 PM
Quote from: Sideshow Bob on September 30, 2008, 02:39:29 PM
Need a bit of advice here folks.


A few years ago a friend of a friend of a friend approached me to say he needed to borrow some money. He was willing to pay it back in installments and add a sizeable bit on top. I didn't have all the cash he wanted but I could see that I could make a few bob on the deal so I borrowed some cash from other friends and relatives to lend to him. He kept making payments and so I borrowed some more to lend to him. I had heard rumours that he wasn't the most reliable of people, but he was paying the installments as planned so everyone was happy, especially me because I was creaming off the top, and quite frankly living the high life on the back of the deal.

That's when it all started to go pearshaped. The payments stopped and I have had to start digging into my savings to pay back the friends and relatives I borrowed money from. The guy tells me he has some 'cashflow' problems and shows no interest in paying what he owes me. It is worse than that. I hadn't told the friends and relatives that I had lent their money to some dodgy geezer but now it all looks like it is going to come out.

I have tried to borrow money from other friends to keep my head above water but they are saying , unsurprisingly that there is no way.

I think I am fooked. What shall I do? I think I may be out of a job soon too, and although I able to claim state benefits I am not sure they will want to pay back the money I have borrowed and Lent out as well (although they might?). What do you think?


Bob, the last thing you should ever do on a discussion board like this is reveal your identity, now I can almost identify you from the above so I suggest you delete your post, before one of your 'mates' who you borrowed from figures out what you've done with their money.  Might I suggest that for a long term solution you go back to the auld sod as state hand-outs tend to be more generous there.

Well done bogballXV you have figured me out, I am Bradford and Bingley  ;) As usual Orangeman was first to jump in without really knowing what was going on, but you gotta love him.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: stew on September 30, 2008, 07:54:25 PM
Quote from: Over the Bar on September 30, 2008, 02:55:27 PM
I have a super solution to this problem.  What don't the US sell Alaska back to the Russians?  I'm sure the'd get at least $1000 billion form it and this would save the banking system AND get rid of Sarah Palin in one fell swoop!  

Yep, the Russians have that kind of money to give away, and shure 1,000 billion would buy Alaska.




SSSSSSSSSSSHHHHHHHHHHHHUUUUUUUUURRRRRRRRRRRE!!!!!!!


Palin for VP. C'mon Mc Cain.  :)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: magickingdom on September 30, 2008, 07:59:36 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 30, 2008, 03:21:58 AM
Just back from the beer I mentioned earlier.

Shouldn't have gone.

From what I hear Irish banking will not be the same by lunchtime today. Better stay in bed.

where did you have those beers? in the central bank...

i think its a very good move by the gov, if the US did this and came up with proper capital rules going forward along with enforcement things might get back on some kind of track
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: pintsofguinness on September 30, 2008, 08:12:01 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on September 30, 2008, 02:49:52 PM
Quote from: orangeman on September 30, 2008, 02:06:21 PMSome of the things you're talking about may never happen - eg banks defualting - but guaranteeing deposits will hopefully ensure there isn't a run on the banks thereby creating stability.
I know it may never happen and I know why this has been done, imo without it, at least one irish bank would no longer be with us in its current form, but that is not necessarily a bad thing (unless you happen to be a shareholder in one of the institutions that would very likely have went under today).  Tbh Lenihan's game is based on the bluff that he will never actually have to pay up, the move was to ensure confidence, but as I say the consequences of the guarantee are anybody's guess.

THe move was intended to ensure confidence but surely banks/people aren't stupid and will know that the Irish govt would have a very hard time coming up wiht the money if anything did go wrong so how confident can they be?

Seems to me, with my limited knowledge on the subject, that it's an incredible and dangerous gamble. 

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 01, 2008, 09:12:34 AM
The bail out seems to be on its way - somehow I can't see it having much effect.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 02, 2008, 09:12:20 AM
The Seanad has passed emergency legislation giving effect to the €400bn Government guarantee to a range of financial institutions by 39 votes to 5.

The debate in the upper house began at 2.30am this morning, shortly after the Dáil overwhelmingly endorsed the plan.

There were some amendments to the Bill in the Seanad, so it now has to return for final approval in the Dáil when it resumes at 10.30am.

AdvertisementThe Bill is expected to be signed into law by President Mary McAleese around lunchtime.

The most important change is a stipulation that any agreement for support of a financial institution would have to be approved by both houses of the Oireachtas.

The Dáil sat until after 2am to debate the legislation, finally backing it by 124 votes to 18, with only Labour opposed.

In the course of the debate, Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan confirmed representatives of the public interest will be appointed to the boards of institutions accepting the support. He said the State was getting deep into the banking system, and must ensure that the taxpayer is protected.

He will also take action to prevent what he called excessive risk taking being rewarded in the remuneration of top executives.

The minister confirmed the Government will consider applications for inclusion in the scheme from non-Irish banks with a significant retail presence here. Perhaps significantly, the only one he mentioned by name was Ulster Bank.

He told the Seanad that Monday night's crisis meeting which led to the legislation was requested by the chief executives of the two main banks.



Lenihan must have been pretty frightened by this approach ?.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Hound on October 02, 2008, 10:43:21 AM
Its been reported that one Irish bank has already received a €500 million deposit from a UK corporate.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 02, 2008, 10:58:32 AM
Quote from: Hound on October 02, 2008, 10:43:21 AM
Its been reported that one Irish bank has already received a €500 million deposit from a UK corporate.

Where did that come from ?


Northern Rock has attracted a lot of deposits as well. But have dropped savings rates.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: full back on October 02, 2008, 10:59:13 AM
Did I hear that Ulster Bank have already applied for help?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: the Deel Rover on October 02, 2008, 11:02:52 AM
Quote from: full back on October 02, 2008, 10:59:13 AM
Did I hear that Ulster Bank have already applied for help?


is it that they want to be included along with the onther 6 banks in the government guarantee fullback ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 02, 2008, 11:05:22 AM
Quote from: the Deel Rover on October 02, 2008, 11:02:52 AM
Quote from: full back on October 02, 2008, 10:59:13 AM
Did I hear that Ulster Bank have already applied for help?


is it that they want to be included along with the onther 6 banks in the government guarantee fullback ?

Ulster Bank want to be included in the savings deposit guarantee. It looks like they will be included.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: full back on October 02, 2008, 11:06:40 AM
Sorry, just picked a bit of it up on the radio earlier

No need to get the savings out just yet deel ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: the Deel Rover on October 02, 2008, 11:12:26 AM
Quote from: full back on October 02, 2008, 11:06:40 AM
Sorry, just picked a bit of it up on the radio earlier

No need to get the savings out just yet deel ;)



nah your saving are allright yet fullback any way sure the 1st 100k is guaranteed as well, then again sure thats only small changer for your good self  ;) don't worry about picking a bit of it up either sure joe duffy has made a career for himself by doing the same thing ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: full back on October 02, 2008, 11:15:56 AM
joe joe joe joe duffy would do well to start picking up any of it FFS

When the sh1t hits the fan, will anyone feel their savings are really safe?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: the Deel Rover on October 02, 2008, 11:19:06 AM
What would happen your mortgage if one of the banks were to go no fear of it disappearing by any chance ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Zapatista on October 02, 2008, 01:17:46 PM
Once this has started they might aswell guaretee them all. It is a 'just incase' promise. Won't need to folow through on it. Puts a big hot poker up the ass of the others too.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Main Street on October 02, 2008, 03:09:25 PM
Quote from: the Deel Rover on October 02, 2008, 11:19:06 AM
What would happen your mortgage if one of the banks were to go no fear of it disappearing by any chance ?
It's just like the movies, sombody always picks up your debt for a % of the original cost  and sends a few thumb twisters around to collect.
But you might be able to renegotiate the terms.

What you need is the scenario where the loan shark falls dead into a deep limestone hole in the ground along with his black book, the only record of his dealings to be lost forever.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 02, 2008, 03:11:21 PM
Quote from: Main Street on October 02, 2008, 03:09:25 PM
Quote from: the Deel Rover on October 02, 2008, 11:19:06 AM
What would happen your mortgage if one of the banks were to go no fear of it disappearing by any chance ?
It's just like the movies, sombody always picks up your debt for a % of the original cost  and sends a few thumb twisters around to collect.
But you might be able to renegotiate the terms.

What you need is the scenario where the loan shark falls dead into a deep limestone hole in the ground along with his black book, the only record of his dealings to be lost forever.

Problem is you'd need to get rid of the computers as well !
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Declan on October 03, 2008, 07:27:47 AM
Anyone watch Prime Time last night???
so scary it was untrue - our esteemed financial regulator was shown up for the inept crony he is and insisted that there was no problem with the irish banks and Mansergh came across as such a condescending supercilious dick. Banks refuse to answer questions and govt refuse to a get rid of f the poepol who casued the problem in the first place. In the alternative universe that our golden circle inhabit a CEO of a bank who sufs the web for escort sites has to resign but the people who presided over the meltdown of the banking system get a free out of jail card - unreal.

If I was a younger man I'd be outta here so fast I wouldn't have time to pack my case

Anyway comrade Joe Higgiin's views one it as told to the Daily Mail - Some interesting thoughts if you take the idealogical argument out of it he's spot on:


Like a searing scalpel, the dramatic financial crisis of recent days, and weeks, graphically slices through the tissue of establishment propaganda and cant about how this State, and indeed the world, is run, and reveals the bare truth beneath. We live in a dictatorship – the dictatorship of the markets.

During the ten years I served in Dail Eireann [Irish parliament], I made that point more than once, and to a typical response of raised eyebrows, and mutterings of 'here we go again'. Now we know it's true.

Sure, we get to vote for Councillors, and Parliamentarians every few years. The four weeks of the last General Election campaign were packed with debate, on the economic policies of the various establishment parties. Strong growth rates, well into the future, were confidently predicted, and many conclusions drawn, for jobs and public services.

Now we know it didn't make a blind bit of difference. Because, the hapless politicians aren't the ones who decide. They aren't in charge. The property speculators, and the bankers are in charge. The spivs, and speculators gambling billions on Stock Exchanges around the world are in charge.

Driven by insatiable greed, their headlong rush for private profit dictates how entire economies are run,and dictates the fate of billions of human beings. And now, like the Gadarene swine of the Christian New Testament, they have taken their system to the very brink of the precipice. Which is now where we find US president Bush, British Prime Minister Browne and Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan, desperately trying to prevent them going into the abyss.

As the crisis unfolded, we listened to political leaders here, and elsewhere, without being conscious of it, acknowledge who the real rulers are. They said they were taking far reaching measures, 'to send a signal to the markets'; 'to reassure the markets'; 'to restore confidence in the markets.' And if these measures weren't sufficient to reassure, and restore confidence, they took even more far reaching measures to the same end.

So, what are the markets, and who runs them? Put simply, they are like giant gambling casinos. Wheelers, and dealers buy, and sell, everything from coffee, and oil, to 'packages' of mortgage portfolios, and debts of financial institutions.

They will gamble on future prices of essentials, like food, and drive prices up, or down, depending on the circumstances. For the most part, they will never see the products they are dealing in. They are utterly indifferent to the fate of those who labour to produce the goods, as they are to the ability of people to purchase them, They are utterly immoral.

These, then, are institutions, and the people calling the tune. And, like mesmerised snakes, political leaders have been responding. They reward them by rescuing their organisations from the consequences of their inordinate greed. They prostrate themselves at their feet, laden down with bulging bags of hardworking people's taxes.

For the last ten years, the Fianna Fail/PD Government watched, motionless, as property speculators, and big bankers, mercilessly crucified young working people to forty year mortgages, to pay for the monstrous house price rises they had engineered. The Government raised not a finger, as developers walked away with billions, bled from their victims, whose only crime was to seek the human necessity of providing a home for themselves.

Minister Lenihan had the gall to suggest recently that 'we' decided we wanted things this way. As if we were masochists loving the idea of working like dogs for decades, to obscenely enrich a tiny minority. Talk about blaming the victims for the crime!

Now, Minister Lenihan gives carte blanche to the major banks. Gambling with taxpayers funds, he underwrites the fat cats, who brought on this unprecedented crisis. No such guarantees for the thousands of workers, who have been thrown out of their jobs over the last months largely because their bosses weren't making sufficient profits.

The last week has shown, also, that there is no Opposition in Dail Eireann. If you examine the record from last week, which was the first time that the parliament had to debate the momentous events of recent months, and weeks, not a single voice was raised that fundamentally disagreed with the Government's right wing position. All accept the 'reality of the market', and therefore accept being subjected to its madness. In the same way as all will accept what the Government, and Minister Lenihan have done for the big banks.

However, ordinary people should start their own debate. On why their jobs, their need to have a home, and their pensions should all be held to ransom, by faceless institutions in the financial markets, and on the Stock Exchanges . And why instead, these should not be in public ownership, and run for the benefit of the majority rather than the greed of the very few.
Reply With Quote

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: mannix on October 03, 2008, 07:58:04 AM
and where would you go declan?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Declan on October 03, 2008, 08:30:33 AM
Quoteand where would you go declan?

If I was going to stay in Europe - France.
Further afield - Australia
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Zapatista on October 03, 2008, 09:03:57 AM
Quote from: Declan on October 03, 2008, 08:30:33 AM
Quoteand where would you go declan?

If I was going to stay in Europe - France.
Further afield - Australia

Which is completely different ::)

How about ye stay here and hold the responsible to account?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Declan on October 03, 2008, 09:22:37 AM
QuoteWhich is completely different

Whilst they have their own issues I think they are a better option than here.

QuoteHow about ye stay here and hold the responsible to account?

I've been trying to hold those responsible to account through full participation in the "democratic" process but I believe it has failed me. Bar going ballistic and heading down to Ballsbridge via Leinster house with a weapon I cannot see how the people responsible will be held accountable.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Zapatista on October 03, 2008, 10:09:43 AM
Quote from: Declan on October 03, 2008, 09:22:37 AM
I've been trying to hold those responsible to account through full participation in the "democratic" process but I believe it has failed me.

If it is a democratic system it hasn't failed you, it just doesn't suit you. If ye pack up and leave behind all those it does suit, it will be the end of any chance of change and leave a much worse situation. People need to take some responsibility and stop moping about. What kind of place would we have inherited if there was no one left to say 'hold on a minute, this shit has gone far enough'? We have milked the gravy train as much as we can and now that it has dried up we want to leave it to someone else to sort and head of to the next gravy train. The Irish have become worse than locus.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: mannix on October 03, 2008, 10:37:35 AM
Declan,
i live in france and would not recommend it too highly, its fast asleep as far as business and work goes and you need to be lucky or else transferred to get work here.
I hope that the Irish government can hold the big usa firms there at the minute, its getting to the point of not being funny.
Someone needs to be very bold and take complete charge.
And by the way a 2 bedroom shoebox in central dublin was never worth 650,000 euro in any way shape or form, someone has to pay the price for ridiculous sales like this.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Declan on October 03, 2008, 11:30:37 AM
QuoteIf it is a democratic system it hasn't failed you, it just doesn't suit you.

It's the best democracy money can buy though isn't it ;).

QuotePeople need to take some responsibility and stop moping about.

Couldn't agree more and I did stay here in the dark old 80's and thankfully would like to thing did my bit but with the benefit of hindsight and experience I can honestly say that if I had to make the decision again I'd be gone and wouldn't comeback.

QuoteWe have milked the gravy train as much as we can and now that it has dried up we want to leave it to someone else to sort and head of to the next gravy train. The Irish have become worse than locus.

I certainly didn't milk any gravy train and would suggest that the only people who have done so are the prime architects of our current crisis and in my mind should be punished accordingly. So I'm all for a real revolution but cannot see it happening.


Mannix  -know what you're saying about France and the element of the grass is always greener etc but I was travelling with work on continental Europe last week and the stark contrast in puiblic transport, facilities , prices etc struck me significantly. lI am genuinely sick and tired this morning of this govt,  it's golden circles of parasites and money grabbing criminals, who make up whats known as the "establishment". I'm sick of being patronised by economic commentators of vested interest groups ascribing the panacea for all our ills when they are an integral part of the problem.  I'm sick at the prospect of the pending budget that will target the wrong areas and impose yet more hardship on the very people who cannot afford it.
Other than that I'm having a great day >:(
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 03, 2008, 09:24:42 PM
263 -171

The big bailout has been approved and the markets like it a lot. Profits have been taken ! The money is rolling again.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on October 04, 2008, 01:42:19 AM
Quote from: orangeman on October 03, 2008, 09:24:42 PM
263 -171

The big bailout has been approved and the markets like it a lot. Profits have been taken ! The money is rolling again.
don't know about that, some of the drop may be profit taking, but overall dow is down 160 - what I don't understand is why the dollar is maintaining its strength against euro, it makes no sense - i can't see that going any way other than into complete freefall once the implications of the bailout become clear.
As for the money rolling, i don't know OM, I just don't know, this whole thing is so complex that i reckon nobody else does either though!
Luckily, as muppet pointed out - the sun will shine tomorrow, though, with our weather I wouldn't be betting my top or bottom dollar on it :D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 04, 2008, 01:34:26 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on October 04, 2008, 01:42:19 AM
Quote from: orangeman on October 03, 2008, 09:24:42 PM
263 -171

The big bailout has been approved and the markets like it a lot. Profits have been taken ! The money is rolling again.
don't know about that, some of the drop may be profit taking, but overall dow is down 160 - what I don't understand is why the dollar is maintaining its strength against euro, it makes no sense - i can't see that going any way other than into complete freefall once the implications of the bailout become clear.
As for the money rolling, i don't know OM, I just don't know, this whole thing is so complex that i reckon nobody else does either though!
Luckily, as muppet pointed out - the sun will shine tomorrow, though, with our weather I wouldn't be betting my top or bottom dollar on it :D


I like you thought the dollar would be losing strength instead of gaining. As you say doesn't make sense.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: stew on October 04, 2008, 08:51:38 PM
My retirement nest egg is in serious trouble, I have lost 28% of my retirement funds in the past six months and I fear it is only going to get worse.

The wife's is down 11% which isnt too bad but it all adds up to a lot of money I wont have unless things improve dramatically.

I know a bail out plan was needed but that does not mean i like it.

America is in serious trouble and yer only man to get us out of it is one Barak Obama.  ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 06, 2008, 09:09:16 AM
Germany has now guaranteed all its deposits - the market is down so far 5% with only an hour gone - what next ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 06, 2008, 10:30:08 AM
Markets are in freefall !
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: mannix on October 06, 2008, 11:04:13 AM
as long as europe dithers and cannot make a decision about what to do the us dollar will get stronger, i hope it lasts till the weekend and give me a chance to get my dollars out of the us at the 135 mark.
Was talking to a man that appears to know what will happen, he said the irish property market would implode 2 years ago, he reckons the dollar will be around 1.80 in quick order.He also reckoned that it will remain weak for years because the usa has to try and pay for the wars they are stuck in and also pay for the crazy military system they have.Barack obama should do the wise thing and walk away from a very poisoned chalice.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: give her dixie on October 06, 2008, 01:54:20 PM
With the Irish banks taking another hammering today, and Anglo Irish down another 27%, it doesn't look too good.
I feel that Anglo are in a very bad position, with nearly 80% of their lending involving property, and before the end of this week something radical will happen.
Will they be taken over, or will the Gov bail them out?
Things don't look too rosey this Monday eh?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 06, 2008, 02:16:13 PM
Danske, which is Denmark's biggest financial group, said today that it is going to join a two-year deposit guarantee scheme the Danish government announced last night.

Danske, which owns National Irish Bank in the Republic and Northern Bank in Northern Ireland, had applied to take part in the Irish government's bank guarantee announced last week.

But now that it has joined Denmark's scheme, Danske has withdrawn its request to join the Irish scheme.

Advertisement'National Irish Bank deposit customers will be covered by the new Danish agreement,' National Irish Bank said today.

'As part of the agreement, depositors and creditors with unsecured claims are fully covered by the State guarantee regardless of the amount.'

In an interview with Reuters news agency, the bank's chief financial officer Tonny Thierry Andersen said Danske's Irish operations were affected by the financial crisis.

Andersen said: 'What we can see in Ireland is that asset values continue to fall and we are paying the consequences of that.'

Danske said it expects to be liable for around a third of the €6.6 billion fund that participating Danish banks are expected to contribute to.

Danske expects the guarantee to reduce its net fee income by about €0.3 billion per year for two years, and that its third-quarter earnings will be slightly weaker than anticipated due to the imapct of the financial crisis.

This morning Danske's shares were down 10% at 119.75 kroner, while the Copenhagen exchange's top 20 index was down 5%.




FROM RTE WEBSITE --

Is Northern Bank in this scheme as well ??
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Zapatista on October 06, 2008, 02:29:44 PM
"The government will make sure that those who were involved in irresponsible business practices will be brought to account," said Dr Merkel.

Fair play to Merkel I hope she follows through on this.

We really need to do the same. Does anyone think we will or will we pay them more in hope that they will do a better job?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 06, 2008, 02:41:48 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on October 06, 2008, 02:29:44 PM
"The government will make sure that those who were involved in irresponsible business practices will be brought to account," said Dr Merkel.

Fair play to Merkel I hope she follows through on this.

We really need to do the same. Does anyone think we will or will we pay them more in hope that they will do a better job?


I'd ssay the latter would be more accurate.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Donagh on October 06, 2008, 03:13:03 PM
ISEQ now down 9% on the day. I'd say there's some panic happening now.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 06, 2008, 03:15:34 PM
Quote from: Donagh on October 06, 2008, 03:13:03 PM
ISEQ now down 9% on the day. I'd say there's some panic happening now.

I can almost smell it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: pintsofguinness on October 06, 2008, 03:22:57 PM
So on a scale of 1 to 10 how fucked are we?
10 being the most fucked.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: ardmhachaabu on October 06, 2008, 03:23:29 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on October 06, 2008, 03:22:57 PM
So on a scale of 1 to 10 how fucked are we?
10 being the most fucked.
8/9
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 06, 2008, 03:25:01 PM
7
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: pintsofguinness on October 06, 2008, 03:26:20 PM
 :-\
Just let me know when it's time to go and get the tinned food and bottled water.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 06, 2008, 03:27:17 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on October 06, 2008, 03:26:20 PM
:-\
Just let me know when it's time to go and get the tinned food and bottled water.

Mighn't be bad idea at the minute to get some stocks ( no shares ) in !
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Zapatista on October 06, 2008, 03:33:20 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on October 06, 2008, 03:26:20 PM
:-\
Just let me know when it's time to go and get the tinned food and bottled water.

Ye can start with the water now. It will soon be cheaper than tapped water and if yer in Galway it won't kill ye.

Or invest in Hienz and Rockwell and then start a panic about doomsday.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 06, 2008, 03:42:24 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on October 06, 2008, 03:33:20 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on October 06, 2008, 03:26:20 PM
:-\
Just let me know when it's time to go and get the tinned food and bottled water.

Ye can start with the water now. It will soon be cheaper than tapped water and if yer in Galway it won't kill ye.

Or invest in Hienz and Rockwell and then start a panic about doomsday.

Rocwell shares would be well up this year !!  ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Donagh on October 06, 2008, 03:45:34 PM
All the gains since Lenihan's gamble guarantee have now been wiped out. So much for all the backslapping in the media over the weekend. "Brian became a man" indeed  :-\
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 06, 2008, 03:49:17 PM
Quote from: Donagh on October 06, 2008, 03:45:34 PM
All the gains since Lenihan's gamble guarantee have now been wiped out. So much for all the backslapping in the media over the weekend. "Brian became a man" indeed  :-\

Credit to him all the same for having the foresgight to make the first leap ! He'd have been laughed at and criticised had others not joined in.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Donagh on October 06, 2008, 03:57:08 PM
Quote from: orangeman on October 06, 2008, 03:49:17 PM
Quote from: Donagh on October 06, 2008, 03:45:34 PM
All the gains since Lenihan's gamble guarantee have now been wiped out. So much for all the backslapping in the media over the weekend. "Brian became a man" indeed  :-\

Credit to him all the same for having the foresgight to make the first leap ! He'd have been laughed at and criticised had others not joined in.

Or he could just have bankrupted the country. ISEQ is down 10% to roughly where it was last week and Anglo Irish Bank has lost 25% of it's value. If it goes to the wall the Irish government will be liable for all it's deposits and loans. Pretty risky strategy in order to keep a few builders afloat.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: pintsofguinness on October 06, 2008, 04:13:46 PM
Quote from: Donagh on October 06, 2008, 03:57:08 PM
Quote from: orangeman on October 06, 2008, 03:49:17 PM
Quote from: Donagh on October 06, 2008, 03:45:34 PM
All the gains since Lenihan's gamble guarantee have now been wiped out. So much for all the backslapping in the media over the weekend. "Brian became a man" indeed  :-\

Credit to him all the same for having the foresgight to make the first leap ! He'd have been laughed at and criticised had others not joined in.

Or he could just have bankrupted the country. ISEQ is down 10% to roughly where it was last week and Anglo Irish Bank has lost 25% of it's value. If it goes to the wall the Irish government will be liable for all it's deposits and loans. Pretty risky strategy in order to keep a few builders afloat.
Explain?

How much would the Anglo Irish Bank cost if it goes down?
I meant to ask as well....would Bank of Irleand branches in the North be considered an Irish bank or a UK one?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Donagh on October 06, 2008, 04:23:24 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on October 06, 2008, 04:13:46 PM
Explain?

How much would the Anglo Irish Bank cost if it goes down?
I meant to ask as well....would Bank of Irleand branches in the North be considered an Irish bank or a UK one?

80% of the Anglo Irish loans are reckoned to be to builders and developers sitting on land which is declining in value. Instead of calling the loans in to generate the cash they're so desperate for, they're rolling over the interest payments on the back of the government guarantee. So IMO, it's not the banks that Lenihan has bailed out but the builders again.

Think I read somewhere over the weekend that Anglo Irish has about E5 billion in loans it has no chance of recouping. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: pintsofguinness on October 06, 2008, 04:33:51 PM
Quote
80% of the Anglo Irish loans are reckoned to be to builders and developers sitting on land which is declining in value. Instead of calling the loans in to generate the cash they're so desperate for, they're rolling over the interest payments on the back of the government guarantee. So IMO, it's not the banks that Lenihan has bailed out but the builders again.
Ach people blame the builders for everything.  What's the point in demanding the loans when they can't be paid? So the banks can sit on land that's going down in value?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Donagh on October 06, 2008, 04:43:19 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on October 06, 2008, 04:33:51 PM
Ach people blame the builders for everything.  What's the point in demanding the loans when they can't be paid? So the banks can sit on land that's going down in value?

Better to get some return now even if it means bankrupting the big builders in order to keep the bank (and Ireland Plc) afloat. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on October 06, 2008, 04:45:18 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on October 06, 2008, 04:13:46 PM
Quote from: Donagh on October 06, 2008, 03:57:08 PM
Quote from: orangeman on October 06, 2008, 03:49:17 PM
Quote from: Donagh on October 06, 2008, 03:45:34 PM
All the gains since Lenihan's gamble guarantee have now been wiped out. So much for all the backslapping in the media over the weekend. "Brian became a man" indeed  :-\

Credit to him all the same for having the foresgight to make the first leap ! He'd have been laughed at and criticised had others not joined in.

Or he could just have bankrupted the country. ISEQ is down 10% to roughly where it was last week and Anglo Irish Bank has lost 25% of it's value. If it goes to the wall the Irish government will be liable for all it's deposits and loans. Pretty risky strategy in order to keep a few builders afloat.
Explain?

How much would the Anglo Irish Bank cost if it goes down?
I meant to ask as well....would Bank of Irleand branches in the North be considered an Irish bank or a UK one?
The only situation wherein we have to pay out is when anglo defaults on repayments to other banks and its customers.  The guarantee was made in order that other banks would buy bonds issued by anglo and otherwise lend anglo money so that anglo could obtain financing to meet its ongoing obligations (being older loans/bonds with other banks).  The guarantee basically says that there's no problem in lending to anglo because we the irish govt are guaranteeing that you'll be paid back if anglo go bust.  Additionally the guarantee is supposed to ensure that customers leave their money in the bank as they know they'll get their life savings back whatever happens.
So, after all that nobody knows how much it would cost if they went down:
We'd have to pay the shortfall of the deposits, ie the amount of cash that wasn't there to be refunded to depositor.
We'd have to pay all their outstanding debt, this is probably somewhere around the value of their loan book ie circa 60bn.
We would however take over all the loans owed to anglo ie circa 60bn, and try and see what we could get for them, maybe 40bn - although Brian Lenihan and the dept are confident that we would be able to obtain more for the loan book than we would have to pay out - i don't believe that for a minute, I reckon we'd be out 10-15bn anyway.
Good job I like beans though, especially Hienz!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: pintsofguinness on October 06, 2008, 05:01:00 PM
bogball
QuoteThe only situation wherein we have to pay out is when anglo defaults on repayments to other banks and its customers.  The guarantee was made in order that other banks would buy bonds issued by anglo and otherwise lend anglo money so that anglo could obtain financing to meet its ongoing obligations (being older loans/bonds with other banks).  The guarantee basically says that there's no problem in lending to anglo because we the irish govt are guaranteeing that you'll be paid back if anglo go bust.  Additionally the guarantee is supposed to ensure that customers leave their money in the bank as they know they'll get their life savings back whatever happens.
So, after all that nobody knows how much it would cost if they went down:
We'd have to pay the shortfall of the deposits, ie the amount of cash that wasn't there to be refunded to depositor.
We'd have to pay all their outstanding debt, this is probably somewhere around the value of their loan book ie circa 60bn.
We would however take over all the loans owed to anglo ie circa 60bn, and try and see what we could get for them, maybe 40bn - although Brian Lenihan and the dept are confident that we would be able to obtain more for the loan book than we would have to pay out - i don't believe that for a minute, I reckon we'd be out 10-15bn anyway.
Good job I like beans though, especially Hienz!!
In a word, f**k!  :-\

Donagh
Quote
Better to get some return now even if it means bankrupting the big builders in order to keep the bank (and Ireland Plc) afloat.
Who's going to buy it though Donagh?  Look at all the people that would be out of work.  I see what you're saying and imo if you /your business or whatever get a loan you shuold be expected to pay it back without any favours however you can't blame the builders for this mess, the banks caused the mess.  It's the same with people who are defaulting on their mortgages - it makes more financial sense for banks to hang on and see if they will pay.
People are all to happy to put the boot in to the builders, I remember a few months ago gloating about the builders being paid off ffs.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Donagh on October 06, 2008, 05:31:01 PM
Not one of the big ten builders in the country have went to the wall despite all of the smaller builders and contractors being sent down. Now there will be no pressure on them to come up with the money but they can sit out the slump safe in the knowledge that the government will stump up the money they owe.

From yesterdays Tribune:
The golden triangle – FF, the builders and the banks
Justine McCarthy
Despite last week's bail-out, some of the country's most ambitious redevelopment plans are still in jeopardy
A word in your ear: Taoiseach Bertie Ahern with builder Bernard McNamara at the Galway Races in 2006

It was Fianna Fáil's best friend, Bob the Builder, who propelled the banks into the liquidity crisis and caused the historic post-midnight sitting of the Dáil. After a decade of swaggering around the corridors of power and inside the Fianna Fáil tent, many of those feted builders are now expected to put their most extravagant plans on ice and sit out the recession, cushioned by the citizens' guarantee to the financial institutions.

"We're not so much talking about a golden circle as the golden triangle – Fianna Fáil, the builders and the banks," says Labour's Joan Burton.

Irish banks are owed €110bn by the property and construction sector. It accounts for €60 of every €100 that residents have on deposit. As 28% of all borrowings, it is significantly greater than the 25% construction proportion of bank lending in Japan when the banks crashed there in 1989.

Question marks hang over two of the most ambitious redevelopment plans for Dublin. As An Bord Pleanála's hearing of Seán Dunne's planning appeal for his Ballsbridge proposal continued last week, speculation was rife that, even if permission is granted, it will not go ahead until the economy improves.

The old Doyle hotels site cost him €379m three years ago and, should he be permitted to build his entire proposal, construction would cost almost half a billion euro more. In the event that construction financing was available, the problem would be selling 98,000square metres of residential units in a slump. Ulster Bank, the non-Irish-owned bank specifically mentioned by the minister for finance when he discussed the extension of the bank guarantee, is believed to be the sole lender for the development.

The roadblock for the develop­ers is that, because of the massive indebtedness, overseas banks are less forthcoming in lending to their Irish counterparts. This type of lending is usually extended for short periods of about three months and, since the start of this year, some of the overseas lenders had refused to renew the arrangements. In other words, the builders had become such financial parasites, they devoured their own lifeline.

A risk assessment conducted by an international investment bank of AIB and Bank of Ireland found half of all loans for development were given to just 40 borrowers. Some 60% of AIB's total loans were taken up by the property sector and 70% of Bank of Ireland's.

A second trophy development hanging in the balance is the 24.5-acre Irish Glass Bottle site in Ringsend. It too smashed Celtic Tiger price records when it was bought in November 2006 by a consortium involving builder Bernard McNamara, financier Derek Quinlan and private clients of Davy stockbrokers. Anglo Irish Bank, the country's third biggest bank, has lent €288m for the project which envisages 2,166 apartments. The auguries are not good. Another developer, Liam Carroll, applied for permission to convert his brand new apartment development at the old Gasworks into a hotel, just down the road from the IGB site, when he failed to offload the apartments. Davy's clients put up €52.25m of the purchase price with McNamara's company lending it €62.5m plus a personal loan of €101,000. The starting date for construction – which will cost as much again as the purchase price – is next April. Watch this space.

Of the six institutions rescued by the government's decision last Monday night, AIB has the biggest loan book for the construction and property sector, at €30bn. Bank of Ireland has about €14bn. Irish Nationwide has nearly €10bn. Probably the most vulnerable of all is Anglo Irish Bank, the third biggest Irish-owned bank which described itself as "a relationship bank" but is more popularly known as "the builders' bank" and "the bank for big fish."

It is exclusively engaged in commercial lending and, though it has just 30,000 customers, its loans, primarily to the property and construction sector, come to €70bn. It is no surprise Anglo Irish was the one said to be closest to the precipice of ruination last Monday when its share price plummeted by 47%. The country's richest person, Seán Quinn, owns 15% of the bank's shares, along with his family.

Among Anglo Irish's big-name borrowers are Liam Carroll for his vast Cherrywood site in south Dublin, Bernard McNamara for his purchase of the gigantic Elm Park in Booterstown, Seamus Ross's Menolly Properties and Treasury Holdings for the refinancing of the Ritz Carlton Hotel in Enniskerry. It is also the foremost lender to Pierse Construction.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: magpie seanie on October 06, 2008, 05:42:11 PM
It absolutely galls me that the government are doing this but it is a necessary evil because we have gone so far down the road of corruption, greed and under handedness that we cannot turn away from it immediately without dire consequences. Joe Higgins' (someone I wouldn't be inclined to agree with all that often) piece earlier on this thread was hard to argue with. A touch exaggerated it could be argued in parts but a damning indictment on our so called democracy and economic philosophy. He is right that there is no opposition in the Dáil. There is very little difference between any of them.

If people are held to account for this mess then good but I won't be holding my breath.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on October 06, 2008, 09:15:04 PM
It appears the reasson we can (and presumably the same goes for the Danes) give such a guarantee is that our national debt/GDP ratio is very good in comparision to say Britain who firstly have a much bigger banking industry and secondly have a far worse National Debt/GDP ratio. The same applies to the bigger Euro zone economies.

If the whole thing continues to tank we may escape with merely a massive national debt, and associated taxes. But then a lot of banks may have moved here in the meantime.

The EU would not be happy, but seeing as it takes forever for our unelected commissioners to decide, if they even have the authority to decide, to move towards a decision that will arrive long after the horse has bolted, their input wont matter.

BTW I agree that it is absolutely necessary. But when this mess is over heads should roll and I dont mean 12 year tribunals, I mean 12 years in jail.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 06, 2008, 10:48:02 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 06, 2008, 09:15:04 PM
It appears the reasson we can (and presumably the same goes for the Danes) give such a guarantee is that our national debt/GDP ratio is very good in comparision to say Britain who firstly have a much bigger banking industry and secondly have a far worse National Debt/GDP ratio. The same applies to the bigger Euro zone economies.

If the whole thing continues to tank we may escape with merely a massive national debt, and associated taxes. But then a lot of banks may have moved here in the meantime.

The EU would not be happy, but seeing as it takes forever for our unelected commissioners to decide, if they even have the authority to decide, to move towards a decision that will arrive long after the horse has bolted, their input wont matter.

BTW I agree that it is absolutely necessary. But when this mess is over heads should roll and I dont mean 12 year tribunals, I mean 12 years in jail.
[/b][/i]


You're right but we all know this isn't going to happen.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Zapatista on October 07, 2008, 08:10:39 AM
Quote from: muppet on October 06, 2008, 09:15:04 PM
It appears the reason we can (and presumably the same goes for the Danes) give such a guarantee is that our national debt/GDP ratio is very good in comparison to say Britain who firstly have a much bigger banking industry and secondly have a far worse National Debt/GDP ratio. The same applies to the bigger Euro zone economies.

Another reason the Government can give the Guarantees is that they don't have to honour them. We are guaranteed up to 100 000 of our savings. It was a win win move by Lenihan. If the move works it will never be questioned and seen as a master stroke. If it doesn't work then what are ye gonna do? The Government have only Guaranteed it while other Governments have actually invested by Nationalising banks and taking shares. They have put the money in up front and taken on the responsability. The Irish Government have merely given their word. There is no reason the state cannot change their mind as they have nothing invested. Their is no change in those responsible and there won't be.

Banks lend and borrow money. That is what they do. It is not the fault of the builders as they are doing what builders do. By land, build and sell. The problem is with the regulator who over seen all this without batting an eyelid. The banks were at bad practice but the level it was allowed to continue to should never have happened. It was fueled by the bad practice of those who appointed the regulator too. Joan Burton is right about the triangle but she misses the point that the regulator is FF and the strongest players in the triangle.

The big difference with the Irish and the Brits (and other EU countries) is that the Brits will be held responsible for any bail out move and they will expect a return. There is no opposition in the Dail. They are all the same. the Irish electorate are the same too. There is Zero outrage and Zero accountability in Irish politics. We will be told that the only people who can solve the problems are the ones who created the problems. We will swallow this hook line and sinker and return the same gob shites to the same positions. We will say 'ach sure' he's not a bad lad, he done the country some service.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 07, 2008, 09:28:58 AM
Quote from: Zapatista on October 07, 2008, 08:10:39 AM
Quote from: muppet on October 06, 2008, 09:15:04 PM
It appears the reason we can (and presumably the same goes for the Danes) give such a guarantee is that our national debt/GDP ratio is very good in comparison to say Britain who firstly have a much bigger banking industry and secondly have a far worse National Debt/GDP ratio. The same applies to the bigger Euro zone economies.

Another reason the Government can give the Guarantees is that they don't have to honour them. We are guaranteed up to 100 000 of our savings. It was a win win move by Lenihan. If the move works it will never be questioned and seen as a master stroke. If it doesn't work then what are ye gonna do? The Government have only Guaranteed it while other Governments have actually invested by Nationalising banks and taking shares. They have put the money in up front and taken on the responsability. The Irish Government have merely given their word. There is no reason the state cannot change their mind as they have nothing invested. Their is no change in those responsible and there won't be.

Banks lend and borrow money. That is what they do. It is not the fault of the builders as they are doing what builders do. By land, build and sell. The problem is with the regulator who over seen all this without batting an eyelid. The banks were at bad practice but the level it was allowed to continue to should never have happened. It was fueled by the bad practice of those who appointed the regulator too. Joan Burton is right about the triangle but she misses the point that the regulator is FF and the strongest players in the triangle.

The big difference with the Irish and the Brits (and other EU countries) is that the Brits will be held responsible for any bail out move and they will expect a return. There is no opposition in the Dail. They are all the same. the Irish electorate are the same too. There is Zero outrage and Zero accountability in Irish politics. We will be told that the only people who can solve the problems are the ones who created the problems. We will swallow this hook line and sinker and return the same gob shites to the same positions. We will say 'ach sure' he's not a bad lad, he done the country some service.


Spot on Zapasita - we have a long history of resloving things in this way.


Same when you die - you can be the biggest bollocks of all time but in the coffin, ah sure he was a great man !!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Donagh on October 07, 2008, 09:41:58 AM
Quote from: Zapatista on October 07, 2008, 08:10:39 AM
It is not the fault of the builders as they are doing what builders do. By land, build and sell. The problem is with the regulator who over seen all this without batting an eyelid. The banks were at bad practice but the level it was allowed to continue to should never have happened.

I'm not saying the current problems have been caused by the builders but that Lenihan guarantee will primarily prevent the banks putting pressure on the big builders to start paying off their debt. On the Matt Cooper show yesterday some boy was on saying that five out of the top ten builders in the country are technically insolvent yet the banks are doing nothing to seize their assets while all the time the value of those assets are decreasing. Who else would they do this for?

ISEQ down another 5% this morning already. Anglo or RBS could go to the wall today.   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Zapatista on October 07, 2008, 09:51:32 AM
Quote from: Donagh on October 07, 2008, 09:41:58 AM
Quote from: Zapatista on October 07, 2008, 08:10:39 AM
It is not the fault of the builders as they are doing what builders do. By land, build and sell. The problem is with the regulator who over seen all this without batting an eyelid. The banks were at bad practice but the level it was allowed to continue to should never have happened.

I'm not saying the current problems have been caused by the builders but that Lenihan guarantee will primarily prevent the banks putting pressure on the big builders to start paying off their debt. On the Matt Cooper show yesterday some boy was on saying that five out of the top ten builders in the country are technically insolvent yet the banks are doing nothing to seize their assets while all the time the value of those assets are decreasing. Who else would they do this for?

ISEQ down another 5% this morning already. Anglo or RBS could go to the wall today.   

Do you think that was part of the deal last Monday night?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Donagh on October 07, 2008, 09:56:50 AM
Quote from: Zapatista on October 07, 2008, 09:51:32 AM

Do you think that was part of the deal last Monday night?

Nothing would surprise me about FF especially when it comes to the big money builders.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Donagh on October 07, 2008, 10:07:33 AM
Looks like the Irish and their guarantee have just be slapped into line by Europe:



Lenihan 'satisfied' of guarantee agreement
Tuesday, 7 October 2008 09:37

Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan says he is satisfied that he can reach agreement with the European Commission on the bank guarantee scheme.

The commission had raised concerns about aspects of the scheme possibly being in breach of EU competition and state aid rules.

Last night, the minister met European Commissioner for Competition Neelie Kroes in Luxembourg.

He said the meeting helped clarify the Government's intentions on how the bank guarantee legislation will be implemented.

The commission raised the possibility of discrimination between different banks operating in Ireland and the minister said he is addressing that issue.

Mr Lenihan and Ms Kroes agreed that these issues should be analysed by reference to the position of such banks in the Irish economy.

They also agreed that steps would be taken to guard against undue distortions in financial flows and the minister said the implementing measures will provide for both behavioural controls and quantitative balance sheet controls.

The guarantee scheme and wider economic issues are expected to dominate this morning's Cabinet meeting and business in the Dáil.

Meanwhile, Eurogroup President Jean-Claude Juncker said that European states will not allow any financial institution of systemic significance to fail.

Mr Juncker said it will be one of the guiding principles for a concerted EU approach to handling the crisis to be agreed by finance ministers in Brussels later today.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 07, 2008, 10:15:55 AM
Quote from: Donagh on October 07, 2008, 09:41:58 AM
Quote from: Zapatista on October 07, 2008, 08:10:39 AM
It is not the fault of the builders as they are doing what builders do. By land, build and sell. The problem is with the regulator who over seen all this without batting an eyelid. The banks were at bad practice but the level it was allowed to continue to should never have happened.

I'm not saying the current problems have been caused by the builders but that Lenihan guarantee will primarily prevent the banks putting pressure on the big builders to start paying off their debt. On the Matt Cooper show yesterday some boy was on saying that five out of the top ten builders in the country are technically insolvent yet the banks are doing nothing to seize their assets while all the time the value of those assets are decreasing. Who else would they do this for?

ISEQ down another 5% this morning already. Anglo or RBS could go to the wall today.   




Jesus !
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on October 07, 2008, 10:23:58 AM
Not looking good for RBS alright, luckily the Royal Bank of Scotland probably have little or no presence in Ireland, especially the north!
I am a bit surprised by that one to be honest, although I suppose I shouldn't be surprised by anything anymore. 
Anglo do look to be in bother, but I don't think you could possibly rule out any irish bank from being in similar difficulties at this stage!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 07, 2008, 10:35:02 AM
Will National Irish experience a flood of money now ? The Danish government have guaranteed all their deposits - these are awfullt uncertain times.

Alistair Dalring is about as convincing as a good piss into the wind !
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: bcarrier on October 07, 2008, 10:41:16 AM
Do RBS not own Ulster bank ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on October 07, 2008, 10:53:58 AM
Quote from: bcarrier on October 07, 2008, 10:41:16 AM
Do RBS not own Ulster bank ?
yes
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Gnevin on October 07, 2008, 10:57:30 AM
Quote from: Donagh on October 07, 2008, 10:07:33 AM
Looks like the Irish and their guarantee have just be slapped into line by Europe:



Lenihan 'satisfied' of guarantee agreement
Tuesday, 7 October 2008 09:37

Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan says he is satisfied that he can reach agreement with the European Commission on the bank guarantee scheme.

The commission had raised concerns about aspects of the scheme possibly being in breach of EU competition and state aid rules.

Last night, the minister met European Commissioner for Competition Neelie Kroes in Luxembourg.

He said the meeting helped clarify the Government's intentions on how the bank guarantee legislation will be implemented.

The commission raised the possibility of discrimination between different banks operating in Ireland and the minister said he is addressing that issue.

Mr Lenihan and Ms Kroes agreed that these issues should be analysed by reference to the position of such banks in the Irish economy.

They also agreed that steps would be taken to guard against undue distortions in financial flows and the minister said the implementing measures will provide for both behavioural controls and quantitative balance sheet controls.

The guarantee scheme and wider economic issues are expected to dominate this morning's Cabinet meeting and business in the Dáil.

Meanwhile, Eurogroup President Jean-Claude Juncker said that European states will not allow any financial institution of systemic significance to fail.

Mr Juncker said it will be one of the guiding principles for a concerted EU approach to handling the crisis to be agreed by finance ministers in Brussels later today.

Considering the Germans have pretty much done the same.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 07, 2008, 10:57:51 AM
Banking shares have fallen in London amid news that the bosses of big banks had met Chancellor Alistair Darling to discuss fundraising.

Royal Bank of Scotland fell 32%, Barclays and Lloyds TSB were both down 9% and HBOS fell by 14%
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Donagh on October 07, 2008, 11:02:16 AM
Text message from La Paz:

"Nicolas Sarkozy, Jose Barroso, Angela Merkle, Tony Blair, Bertie Ahern, Brian Cowan, Gerorge Bush. Can you hear me George Bush? Your boys took one hell of a beating! Your boys took one hell of a beating!"

You know things are bad when they're laughing at you in one of the poorest countries in Latin America.  :D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bensars on October 07, 2008, 11:02:41 AM
Iceland's government has taken control of the country's second largest bank, Landsbanki.

The bank, which trades in the UK as the internet bank Icesave, is being taken over by the Icelandic Financial Supervisory Authority (IFSA).

Icesave says that it is not currently allowing customers to take money out of their accounts or to put in deposits.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: bcarrier on October 07, 2008, 11:05:07 AM
There is some contrast between Lenihans decisiveness and Darlings dithering .

There is no choice. This guy is right on ball ... probably caused the collapse of RBS today with his revelations this morning.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/

Donagh what is your problem with builders ....the people who really cleaned up were landowners. All kinds of people with relatively modest landholdings on outskirts of villages and towns in Ireland had huge windfalls.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 07, 2008, 11:08:39 AM
What the Irish government did, in guaranteeing both retail and wholesale deposits in their banks, may turn out to be something of a model for Europe-wide action.

What we may need is a cast-iron pledge from all European governments that they will fill whatever funding gaps emerge at their respective banks from the seizing up of money markets.

It's probably the best outcome that can emerge from today's meeting of European finance ministers.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Donagh on October 07, 2008, 11:09:49 AM
Quote from: bcarrier on October 07, 2008, 11:05:07 AM
Donagh what is your problem with builders ....the people who really cleaned up were landowners. All kinds of people with relatively modest landholdings on outskirts of villages and towns in Ireland had huge windfalls.

I know but unfortunately those feckers who sold their souls and our environment for a few thousand Euro have gotten clean away. There's still a chance to make the big builders pay - by treating them the same way the small businessman would be treated in the same situation. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Donagh on October 07, 2008, 11:11:55 AM
Europe are going for a blanket E100k guarantee across all countries. Where does that leave the Irish unlimited guarantee?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bensars on October 07, 2008, 11:15:21 AM
Presume it wont change anything in regards to the Irish Gov response. To backtrack now  and revert back to 100k would be seen as a major lack of confidence.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: lynchbhoy on October 07, 2008, 11:16:56 AM
What is the Gov 'return' for endorsing and guaranteeing the banks ?
Are they charging interest on this 'service'?
Are they demanding (I hear they are) that bank officials pay rates be 'rationalised' and dividends / bonuses cut (regulated).

I also heard that in lieu of the state guarantee, AIB top brass fat cats earned €3million - or paid themselves this?

While I an not fussed on the top brass bank execs to be sacked for negligence etc I would most def like them to have their salaries cut from the up to €3million a year (inc bonus).

The state has to get back some money out of this - some form of 'guarantee tax' that comes from bank profits and the cost not one passed on to the ordinary public bank customers.
will see what happens, as if the gov gets additional money as a result out of this stabilising the banks - then as a tax paying member of the public, the extra money will be the answer to what we need to boost/prop up the economy and the shortfall of budgetary finance available to the gov right now.
Things could work themselves out quite nicely.
As long as the banks remain afloat and dont default (and the gov has to pick up the tab).
Also we need the jobs market to not deteriorate too much more, as mass emigration would cripples us as much as mass job losses.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 07, 2008, 11:18:10 AM
Quote from: Donagh on October 07, 2008, 11:11:55 AM
Europe are going for a blanket E100k guarantee across all countries. Where does that leave the Irish unlimited guarantee?


Lenihan will stick by his pledge to secure all depositor's money - he can't do anything else.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: bcarrier on October 07, 2008, 11:23:09 AM
I think the government will make the banks pay a handsome price ...Sean Fitzpatrick started moaning about it at weekend which I thought was the absolute height of cheek.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on October 07, 2008, 11:34:48 AM
Quote from: orangeman on October 07, 2008, 11:18:10 AM
Quote from: Donagh on October 07, 2008, 11:11:55 AM
Europe are going for a blanket E100k guarantee across all countries. Where does that leave the Irish unlimited guarantee?


Lenihan will stick by his pledge to secure all depositor's money - he can't do anything else.
The banks only pay if they are forced to use the guarantee, something that fitzpatrick presumably will be doing shortly (even though he himself feels that anglo's balance sheet is pretty strong :D).
Lenihan can easily backtrack, he can say that eu laws prevented him implementing his plan - mightn't help pass lisbon though - the guarantee is for 2 years only in any case so will be rescinded after that.
Several people are saying that the eu is coming into line with what the irish have done but that's no correct - paddy has not only guaranteed deposits (which is fine and as was mentioned by commentators last week as always being implicit amongst european govts anyway), but has also guaranteed irish banks debt, no other govt has done that or suggested that they will do that, it's ridiculous, and it may end up being hugely expensive to us (looking more likely as the day goes on).
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Zapatista on October 07, 2008, 01:17:53 PM
It would be great if the EU stepped in to investigate the Irish banking system and guarantees. I have no doubt they have broken competition laws but couldn't care less what the EU think of it! However, if they looked into it they might find more than Leninhan isletting on. What was said at that meeting last Monday and why? That would be interesting. Perhaps the EU can hold our politicians to account rather than our citizens having to bother.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: ludermor on October 07, 2008, 01:19:12 PM
Donagh,
There is a big difference between builders and developers. Its the developers that have taken the cream over the last decade and the developer that has borrowed hugely and gambled. Builders generally build. There have been a few that developed their own and they are the ones in big trouble now ( McNamaras, Elliots, Pierce)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Mentalman on October 07, 2008, 01:54:36 PM
Lot of scrabbling going on about the gaurantee. Was interested to see Dick Roche on the week in politics intimate that the banks will only pay for this gaurantee if they need to call on it? Must try that with my car insurance company next April - "I'd like a policy please, but I'll only pay for it after I've had an accident". Also the costings of this cover at 2 billion were revelaed as way off, as at a commerical rate of 3% they should be closer to 12 billion. At a time when the public finances are in ribbons I hardly think that is revenue the governments should be giving up, especially when they have potentially put all of us tax payers in the hole along with the banks.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Main Street on October 07, 2008, 02:14:23 PM
On the State guarantee to the banks debts.
I'd like to know if I go looking for 5 mortgages to buy a house for each of my family members but only want to put up my house as unlimited collateral for the 5 mortgages,
will the bank say that's fine - if one of the members defaults then we have some insurance.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Zapatista on October 07, 2008, 02:43:45 PM
They want your SSIA back :o
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 07, 2008, 05:05:58 PM
Not very convincing news from the the scotsmen today either ???

They must be playing hard ball with the banks.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: lynchbhoy on October 07, 2008, 05:23:29 PM
mental man and main st
I would agree with what you are saying.
its a farce. We (taxpayer) need to be getting a GUARANTEED return on our 'gamble'/endorsement (a la insurance policy)
from these banks. They have plenty of cash from times past and once they get over this (looking more likely now that the gov has bankrolled them) they will begin to earn pots more from us.
I'd insist that they pay for the service, whether they use it or not.
but what can we the little people do.
feck all imo.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: nifan on October 07, 2008, 05:27:11 PM
We the taxpayer would be as well served from banks not collapsing as much as any guarenteed return we might see.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on October 07, 2008, 07:21:12 PM
Quote from: nifan on October 07, 2008, 05:27:11 PM
We the taxpayer would be as well served from banks not collapsing as much as any guarenteed return we might see.

The Government had no choice. They had to issue the guarantee or we would have been what Iceland now is.

Saying they could issue it knowing they could never afford to pay up is nonsense. They could end up paying a large proportion of it yet.

The EU commission now complaining about anti-competition laws is like introducing property taxes after an earthquake has levelled the place. Any interference from Europe will shut the Irish banking industry.

The EU says it will not allow any significant institution go under. Even in its entirety Ireland's financial institutions are not significant to the EU.

We could be out of the Euro shortly the way this is going.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Mentalman on October 07, 2008, 09:42:02 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 07, 2008, 07:21:12 PM
Quote from: nifan on October 07, 2008, 05:27:11 PM
We the taxpayer would be as well served from banks not collapsing as much as any guarenteed return we might see.
The Government had no choice. They had to issue the guarantee or we would have been what Iceland now is.

While I would agree the government had to do something, comparing our situation to Iceland is comparing apples with oranges - they have been running inflation in double digits for two years now, and their currency has been under almost constant attack from speculators. They were in trouble long before the credit crunch. Had we not been inside the Euro we would have been open to just such speculation, similar to the Soros lead attack in the early 90s where Bertie Ahern had to announce a 10+% rise in interest rates in one day.

I'm not sure the European commission will be in any position to question the government on their policy given what is about to/has happened in Germany & the UK in the past hours, however perhaps if they are seen to charge a nominal fee for this guarantee we the tax payers have given (2 billion as opposed to the commercial charge of 12/15 billion) they would have less grounds for complaint. To say the banks will only pay for this service if they have cause to use it is, IMHO, complete bollocks. If Anglo are to need it, not unlikely, are we the taxpayers to simply fork out milions/billions, a small percentage of which will be paid back?

Let's face it, of the 5 or 6 institutions covered by this guarantee, 2 have been run very prudently, and are never likely to need it. One has been run recklessly, and prompted this action as collapse, according to the market, was almost imminent. The correct action in that case was to do has we have seen in the rest of Europe - the government steps in to take control of the institution, sacks the board, and either nationalises it, or finds a buyer. Instead they have effectively rewarded recklessness, and guaranteed it with our money, at a time when we are looking to borrow 9 billion just to provide the services provided in the state last year. The likelihod is this gamble will work out, however we are in deep shit if it doesn't.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Donagh on October 07, 2008, 10:41:03 PM
Quote from: ludermor on October 07, 2008, 01:19:12 PM
Donagh,
There is a big difference between builders and developers. Its the developers that have taken the cream over the last decade and the developer that has borrowed hugely and gambled. Builders generally build. There have been a few that developed their own and they are the ones in big trouble now ( McNamaras, Elliots, Pierce)

I know what you are saying luder, I just don't agree. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Gnevin on October 07, 2008, 11:30:57 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 07, 2008, 07:21:12 PM


We could be out of the Euro shortly the way this is going.

is the Euro in trouble ? Why so much doom and gloom surrounds it at the moment?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Main Street on October 08, 2008, 12:24:28 AM
Quote from: Gnevin on October 07, 2008, 11:30:57 PM
is the Euro in trouble ? Why so much doom and gloom surrounds it at the moment?
Looks like you're having a nice time with discovering the wonderful world of them Light Pale Ales  :)
I don't know but maybe the doom is slightly connected to people having a real fear of not having enough of them Euros.
Maybe something to do with dissapearing savings and pensions and rising unemployment.
Maybee the gloom reflects the level of realistic expectations about impending hardships.

But not to worry about that Gnevin, it's only the poorer people who do the real suffering.
It's happened in England but it can't happen here can it?
300,000 savings accounts closed in England is nothing to worry about, is it?
Not when there is the   rat a tat tat  - Government Guarentee.
And Ireland has -  wait for it -  the  Unlimited Government Guarantee.

They will be telling that fairy story to the children in years to come.
The day they spun the Unlimited Government Guarantee and some people still had hope in it.







Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Donagh on October 08, 2008, 08:52:25 AM
ISEQ down another 5% this morning with the banks taking the worst of the hammering.

(http://ichart.europe.yahoo.com/c/1y/_/_iseq)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: the Deel Rover on October 08, 2008, 09:32:15 AM
Quote from: Donagh on October 08, 2008, 08:52:25 AM
ISEQ down another 5% this morning with the banks taking the worst of the hammering.

(http://ichart.europe.yahoo.com/c/1y/_/_iseq)

The certainly are anglo down to € 2.60 boi to  €3.29 even with the govenrment guarantee it looks people are running scared from the banks 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: gerrykeegan on October 08, 2008, 09:34:40 AM
Donagh

Are you George Lee by any chance?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Donagh on October 08, 2008, 09:43:35 AM
Quote from: gerrykeegan on October 08, 2008, 09:34:40 AM
Donagh

Are you George Lee by any chance?


Nah, just considering buying the wife a bank for Christmas  :D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 08, 2008, 09:44:43 AM
Freefall !!!!!!!!!!! What's happening ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Billys Boots on October 08, 2008, 09:46:24 AM
I don't know how many gobsheens have tried to sell me a pension in the last fortnight - do they reckon I'm deaf, blind and stupid?

On second thoughts, don't answer that.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: pintsofguinness on October 08, 2008, 10:10:50 AM
Quote from: Billys Boots on October 08, 2008, 09:46:24 AM
I don't know how many gobsheens have tried to sell me a pension in the last fortnight - do they reckon I'm deaf, blind and stupid?

On second thoughts, don't answer that.
I got a letter from my bank asking me do I want £15,000 yesterady - I think they probably expect me to pay it back at some stage so I won't be taking them up in their kind offer - but still! I thought there was a credit crunch!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on October 08, 2008, 10:20:03 AM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on October 08, 2008, 10:10:50 AM
Quote from: Billys Boots on October 08, 2008, 09:46:24 AM
I don't know how many gobsheens have tried to sell me a pension in the last fortnight - do they reckon I'm deaf, blind and stupid?

On second thoughts, don't answer that.
I got a letter from my bank asking me do I want £15,000 yesterady - I think they probably expect me to pay it back at some stage so I won't be taking them up in their kind offer - but still! I thought there was a credit crunch!

I understood it was illegal for banks to solicit customers for loans. But I have heard of it happening alright. There should be immediate prosecution of any institution found in breach of the law. This is where our guarantee, that some think we will never no matter what have to pay, suddenly becomes a monster as our banks think it gives them carte blanche to dish out loans everywhere knowing they carry the taxpayer's backing.

P.S. Mentalman when I said we would have been Iceland I meant that our banking system would have been closed last week as theirs was this week.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: pintsofguinness on October 08, 2008, 10:26:11 AM
Quote
I understood it was illegal for banks to solicit customers for loans. But I have heard of it happening alright. There should be immediate prosecution of any institution found in breach of the law.
:o Really?!
I get this letter about every six months since I got a mortgage with them and was surprised to get it (right on time) again. 
Better not say what bank it was - but it's a major well known one.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: the Deel Rover on October 08, 2008, 10:29:38 AM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on October 08, 2008, 10:26:11 AM
Quote
I understood it was illegal for banks to solicit customers for loans. But I have heard of it happening alright. There should be immediate prosecution of any institution found in breach of the law.
:o Really?!
I get this letter about every six months since I got a mortgage with them and was surprised to get it (right on time) again. 
Better not say what bank it was - but it's a major well known one.

yea  it is definately illegal down south banks aren't allowed to send out letters to customers offering pre approved loans to  them
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: pintsofguinness on October 08, 2008, 10:32:50 AM
Ah this is from the north. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on October 08, 2008, 10:33:54 AM
Quote from: the Deel Rover on October 08, 2008, 10:29:38 AM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on October 08, 2008, 10:26:11 AM
Quote
I understood it was illegal for banks to solicit customers for loans. But I have heard of it happening alright. There should be immediate prosecution of any institution found in breach of the law.
:o Really?!
I get this letter about every six months since I got a mortgage with them and was surprised to get it (right on time) again. 
Better not say what bank it was - but it's a major well known one.

yea  it is definately illegal down south banks aren't allowed to send out letters to customers offering pre approved loans to  them

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2008/1008/1223335464264.html (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2008/1008/1223335464264.html)
Nationwide fined €50,000 over e-mail
SIMON CARSWELL, Finance CorrespondentBANK GUARANTEE: IRISH NATIONWIDE has been fined €50,000 for failing to act "professionally" and "with due regard to the integrity of the market" over an e-mail sent by the son of the building society's chief executive, soliciting for deposits on the strength of the Government's bank guarantee scheme.

The Irish Financial Services Regulatory Authority said a settlement had been reached with Irish Nationwide over the circulation of an e-mail by the building society last Wednesday, and that the society had accepted the behaviour was a breach of the regulator's consumer protection code.

The regulator reprimanded Irish Nationwide and found that the society had breached "general principle 1" in the first chapter of its consumer protection code.

A spokesman for the society said it had paid the fine. "The matter is now closed," he said.

Irish Nationwide had apologised for the e-mail, saying that it was "inappropriate and regrettable in the circumstances".



As seen above definately illegal to solicit for deposits but I think also illegal to offer loans to those who haven't requested them.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Billys Boots on October 08, 2008, 11:06:16 AM
Quoteyea  it is definately illegal down south banks aren't allowed to send out letters to customers offering pre approved loans to  them

I've been getting a letter inviting me to draw down a pre-approved loan up to the value to €15,000, every month (for at least the last year) from MBNA.  My missus also gets one (almost simultaneously each month) from GE Woodchester for a pre-approved loan up to the value of €10,000.  They haven't stopped coming this month.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 08, 2008, 11:15:19 AM
Has the bailout in UK effectively guaranteed the depositor's savings ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Mentalman on October 08, 2008, 11:42:32 AM
Quote from: muppet on October 08, 2008, 10:20:03 AM
P.S. Mentalman when I said we would have been Iceland I meant that our banking system would have been closed last week as theirs was this week.

With ya Muppet.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Donagh on October 08, 2008, 12:19:25 PM
Iseq has recovered now to be even for the day. Probably on the back on the European Central Bank announcement that interest rates are to be cut by 0.5%. The Brits, Yanks and Swiss are doing the same.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: the Deel Rover on October 08, 2008, 12:21:51 PM
Quote from: Donagh on October 08, 2008, 12:19:25 PM
Iseq has recovered now to be even for the day. Probably on the back on the European Central Bank announcement that interest rates are to be cut by 0.5%. The Brits, Yanks and Swiss are doing the same.

is the interest cut immediate donagh ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: full back on October 08, 2008, 12:22:49 PM
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/business/banks-to-lend-you-your-own-money-200810081308/
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Donagh on October 08, 2008, 12:24:26 PM
Quote from: the Deel Rover on October 08, 2008, 12:21:51 PM
is the interest cut immediate donagh ?

I would have thought so but there's no detail as yet. This is from the BBC breaking news:


Central banks cut interest rates
UK rate graph

Seven central banks - including the Bank of England - have cut their interest rates by 50 basis points.

The UK rate move - which had not been expected until Thursday - puts interest rates at 4.5% from 5%.

The US Federal Reserve has cut rates from 2% to 1.5% and the European Central Bank trimmed its rate from 4.25% to 3.75%.

The central banks of Canada, China, Sweden and Switzerland all took similar action in the co-ordinated move.

The unprecedented step is aimed at steadying a faltering global economy and slumping stock markets.

The Fed said that it had acted "in light of evidence pointing to a weakening of economic activity and a reduction in inflationary pressures".
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on October 08, 2008, 12:26:33 PM
Quote from: the Deel Rover on October 08, 2008, 12:21:51 PM
Quote from: Donagh on October 08, 2008, 12:19:25 PM
Iseq has recovered now to be even for the day. Probably on the back on the European Central Bank announcement that interest rates are to be cut by 0.5%. The Brits, Yanks and Swiss are doing the same.

is the interest cut immediate donagh ?

Any bets the banks don't pass the cuts on?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on October 08, 2008, 12:28:03 PM
So I wonder what they'll suggest next week when markets are back down at the same level again - mass executions of bank chiefs, martial law.......
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 08, 2008, 12:29:17 PM
Martial law sounds interesting.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: pintsofguinness on October 08, 2008, 12:30:17 PM
Quote from: full back on October 08, 2008, 12:22:49 PM
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/business/banks-to-lend-you-your-own-money-200810081308/
Never thought of it that way, it makes me  >:(


I thought they couldnt cut interest rates because that would cause something else to go up?

Quote from: orangeman on October 08, 2008, 12:29:17 PM
Martial law sounds interesting.
I say we round them up and shoot them.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on October 08, 2008, 12:44:23 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on October 08, 2008, 12:30:17 PM
I thought they couldnt cut interest rates because that would cause something else to go up?

It's called running out of ideas, so far they've disregarded virtually everything they used to hold sacred: competition law, deregulation, free market is always right, privitisations, etc, etc.

Seriously, what is this supposed to achieve?  Do they think this will cause the interbank rate to drop?  I'm a bit confused tbh (but then that'll hardly be a surprise).
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on October 08, 2008, 12:46:08 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on October 08, 2008, 12:44:23 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on October 08, 2008, 12:30:17 PM
I thought they couldnt cut interest rates because that would cause something else to go up?

It's called running out of ideas, so far they've disregarded virtually everything they used to hold sacred: competition law, deregulation, free market is always right, privitisations, etc, etc.

Seriously, what is this supposed to achieve?  Do they think this will cause the interbank rate to drop?  I'm a bit confused tbh (but then that'll hardly be a surprise).

It has caused a bit of a bounce but it does smack of total desperation.

If the banks refuse to pass on the cuts, given the taxpayer is insuring them, it would be time to hit the streets IMHO.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Billys Boots on October 08, 2008, 12:48:28 PM
QuoteAny bets the banks don't pass the cuts on?

Don't they have to?  If you have an ECB + margin mortgage, they must drop the rate immediately, or are all deals effectively over?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: behind the wire on October 08, 2008, 12:51:30 PM
we are only feeling the real effect of maggie thatchers reign now.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: gerrykeegan on October 08, 2008, 12:53:05 PM
Quote from: Billys Boots on October 08, 2008, 12:48:28 PM
QuoteAny bets the banks don't pass the cuts on?

Don't they have to?  If you have an ECB + margin mortgage, they must drop the rate immediately, or are all deals effectively over?

that would be breach of contract Billy, If you have a tracker you will be fine.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on October 08, 2008, 12:53:29 PM
Quote from: Billys Boots on October 08, 2008, 12:48:28 PM
QuoteAny bets the banks don't pass the cuts on?

Don't they have to?  If you have an ECB + margin mortgage, they must drop the rate immediately, or are all deals effectively over?

If you have a tracker it should drop immediately however I'd read the small print just in case.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on October 08, 2008, 12:55:08 PM
Quote from: Billys Boots on October 08, 2008, 12:48:28 PM
QuoteAny bets the banks don't pass the cuts on?

Don't they have to?  If you have an ECB + margin mortgage, they must drop the rate immediately, or are all deals effectively over?
trackers have to drop alright, but I don't know that central bank rates are actually that important to banks anymore, a lot of their borrowing is at the interbank rates and they're way higher than central bank rates anyway, mainly because there is no trust or confidence in the market anymore, basically if i'm going to lend you 20 quid but I'm not sure that you can pay me back I'm going to demand a high premium.
Essentially if the interbank rates don't drop as a result of this, and I don't know that there is any direct link, then the banks won't be in a position to drop their mortgage rates.
I suppose the thinking is that this will decrease interbank rates, which will allow the banks to pass on the cut which may stimulate consumer spending, it's another gamble.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: lynchbhoy on October 08, 2008, 02:12:45 PM
Quote from: Billys Boots on October 08, 2008, 11:06:16 AM
Quoteyea  it is definately illegal down south banks aren't allowed to send out letters to customers offering pre approved loans to  them

I've been getting a letter inviting me to draw down a pre-approved loan up to the value to €15,000, every month (for at least the last year) from MBNA.  My missus also gets one (almost simultaneously each month) from GE Woodchester for a pre-approved loan up to the value of €10,000.  They haven't stopped coming this month.
I get similar from two other Irish financial institutions

In your case billy, they prob know you will need a top up load to pay for all the 'celebrating' the '50 years of hurt' :D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 08, 2008, 02:16:19 PM
What is the interbank rate now ??
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Mentalman on October 08, 2008, 02:24:35 PM
They were discussing the credit crunch with Nick Lesson of all people on Pat Kenny this morning. His adivce was an immediate drop of interest rates, as close to zero as possible. His reasoning was that they needed to get money flowing between the institutions as fast as possible even at the risk of inflation. To discourage reckless lending he reckoned the bank regulation on lending criteria would need to be monitored extremely closely. So basically it's a desperation measure, nothing else has worked so let's try this as a concerted unified measure. I'd say there will be another few cuts before the market is satisfied.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Donagh on October 08, 2008, 02:25:18 PM
ISEQ down almost 6% now and the FTSE by almost 5%. Anyone got another trick they'd like to try?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: the Deel Rover on October 08, 2008, 02:28:10 PM
Quote from: Donagh on October 08, 2008, 02:25:18 PM
ISEQ down almost 6% now and the FTSE by almost 5%. Anyone got another trick they'd like to try?


get on to Laois Lad to give Debbie a ring i'm sure she has a few up sleeve at this stage anything is worth a try ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: pintsofguinness on October 08, 2008, 02:31:25 PM
Quote from: Donagh on October 08, 2008, 02:25:18 PM
ISEQ down almost 6% now and the FTSE by almost 5%. Anyone got another trick they'd like to try?
I say write off all debts, mortgages, credit card etc and start again.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Zapatista on October 08, 2008, 02:33:35 PM
Quote from: Donagh on October 08, 2008, 02:25:18 PM
Anyone got another trick they'd like to try?

Irish people in their millions traipsen back to mass.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: lfdown2 on October 08, 2008, 03:26:57 PM
folks, perhaps slightly of topic but could any of ye explain to me the easiest way to buy shares in a company?
And any useful websites

Cheers
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 08, 2008, 03:38:14 PM
Four years ago, fearful of a property crash, David and Maureen Somers sold their house and bought gold. It's a tactic suddenly popular with those seeking a safe haven for their money.

As safe as houses. This piece of perceived wisdom no longer seems quite so wise as property prices fall and stocks stutter.

But there is one area of the global financial machine that is revving up - gold.

When times are bad, investors have traditionally sought refuge in this precious metal. With bullion dealers reporting a surge in business, it seems history is repeating itself.

Prices are strong and David Somers is delighted, because he effectively bet his house on it. The retired croupier sold his house in 2004 and invested the proceeds in gold.  GOLD PRICES
1999: Prices lowest in 20 years after Gordon Brown urged Bank of England to sell half its reserves
These were sold in 17 auctions between 1999 and 2002 for average of $275.6 an ounce
Currently about $900 an ounce
In March it surged through $1,000 mark for first time


Gold fever

"I was worried about the health of the financial markets at that time, I was worried that something like this credit crunch could be on the way," he says.

"The fact that at the time, only £35,000 of savings in a bank or building society were secure worried me, and I spent a lot of time doing research into what to do. Gold seemed to the best place."

The 56-year-old had seen his friends suffer badly in the last recession through negative equity, punishing repayments, bankruptcy and repossession.

"I looked at my friends and saw that their prime capital earning years were effectively taken away from them because of the way the system had been working."

Alchemy

Mr Somers and his wife Maureen claim it would be "vulgar" to say how much they invested in gold. However, he does say they sold their three-bedroom, detached house in Poole for a significant profit, and the couple have since almost doubled their money again in gold.  GOLD AND TAX

It's a commodity, so subject to capital gains tax, less expenses
Mr Somers buys and sells gold each year to take advantage of capital gains tax allowance
This also helps increase his overall gold holding

"Over thousands of years gold has never reached zero. The price is a risk, but at the end of the day I will still have the same amount of gold," he says.

"There are people who probably hold bank shares that would have been seen as conservative investments and you could question what they are going to be left with."

Mr Somers has never touched the gold he owns, but is able to track its value online.

"It's in a secure vault and I'm really quite happy that they don't let people in to look at it or fondle it. That said, we have stroked the computer screen when we've seen the price go up."

If the couple need money they simply sell some of their gold - it can be sold by the gram, currently about £16 - and the funds are deposited in their bank account the following day.

Commission fees are typically less than half of a percent, and insurance against theft is also a nominal amount.

The couple now live in rental accommodation in Somerset, although Mr Somers hopes to buy property again once prices drop further.

Bunker mentality

Other investors are now following suit, with bullion dealers reporting a sudden upswing in business.

Bullion Vault is an online gold broker in west London, which allows clients to buy and sell certified gold held in vaults in London, Zurich and New York.

It is currently opening an average of three times as many accounts a day compared with the start of September.

Founder Paul Tustain says the appeal of gold is its ability to hold its value over time, and it measures up well against inflation.

"There is a story told about a Roman emperor who bought a suit of clothes thousands of years ago with an ounce of gold. Today that same ounce would be worth about $900, and that would again pay for a suit of clothes," he says.

Mr Tustain stresses that gold is a long-term investment that comes into its own when times are bad, like the Great Depression and during the stagflation of the 1970s.

And Mr Somers, for one, is glad he turned bricks and mortar into gold. "What's happening at the moment is like a financial blitz, and I feel like gold is my tin hat at this time. I wouldn't want to be in a bombed-out economy without it."

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 08, 2008, 04:28:39 PM
Somebody was on here earlier talking about martial law - they weren't joking either.
There have been riots on the streets of Hong Kong following heavy losses at the city's Hang Seng index.

The Hang Seng closed over 8% lower with losses in banks, communications companies and exploration companies.

Customers are trying to get their money out of bank branches and many are protesting about losses related to the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

AdvertisementEarlier, trading on the stock exchange in Jakarta was halted because today's falls were so severe.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on October 08, 2008, 06:30:17 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on October 08, 2008, 02:31:25 PM
Quote from: Donagh on October 08, 2008, 02:25:18 PM
ISEQ down almost 6% now and the FTSE by almost 5%. Anyone got another trick they'd like to try?
I say write off all debts, mortgages, credit card etc and start again.

That would be wonderful.

However take note that despite all the bailouts, multi-billion guarantees and tearing up of strategies/laws not a single euro has been earmarked anywhere for the reduction of even one ordinary punter's debt.

Regardless of what happens our mortgages and other liabilities will still stand even if we enter the dreaded negative equity.

I think any national bailout or national guarantee that is accepted by a financial institution should trigger a writedown of a percentage the monies owed to it by any citizen of that country. E.G if Lloyd's accept assistance from the crown between certain thresholds, then all citizens of the crown owing money to Lloyds have their debt reduced by 10% or 20% or whatever.

There has to be something in it for the ordinary taxpayer other than shouldering the burden created by the wreckless lending of our banks.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Gnevin on October 08, 2008, 06:49:24 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 08, 2008, 06:30:17 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on October 08, 2008, 02:31:25 PM
Quote from: Donagh on October 08, 2008, 02:25:18 PM
ISEQ down almost 6% now and the FTSE by almost 5%. Anyone got another trick they'd like to try?
I say write off all debts, mortgages, credit card etc and start again.

That would be wonderful.

However take note that despite all the bailouts, multi-billion guarantees and tearing up of strategies/laws not a single euro has been earmarked anywhere for the reduction of even one ordinary punter's debt.

Regardless of what happens our mortgages and other liabilities will still stand even if we enter the dreaded negative equity.

I think any national bailout or national guarantee that is accepted by a financial institution should trigger a writedown of a percentage the monies owed to it by any citizen of that country. E.G if Lloyd's accept assistance from the crown between certain thresholds, then all citizens of the crown owing money to Lloyds have their debt reduced by 10% or 20% or whatever.

There has to be something in it for the ordinary taxpayer other than shouldering the burden created by the wreckless lending of our banks.

A write down is the same as toxic debt thus it would be a cycle lloyd's need money but no one will lend so the UK govt props them up but wipes 20% of the value off the good debts they have leading back to square one
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on October 08, 2008, 08:47:16 PM
Quote from: Gnevin on October 08, 2008, 06:49:24 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 08, 2008, 06:30:17 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on October 08, 2008, 02:31:25 PM
Quote from: Donagh on October 08, 2008, 02:25:18 PM
ISEQ down almost 6% now and the FTSE by almost 5%. Anyone got another trick they'd like to try?
I say write off all debts, mortgages, credit card etc and start again.

That would be wonderful.

However take note that despite all the bailouts, multi-billion guarantees and tearing up of strategies/laws not a single euro has been earmarked anywhere for the reduction of even one ordinary punter's debt.

Regardless of what happens our mortgages and other liabilities will still stand even if we enter the dreaded negative equity.

I think any national bailout or national guarantee that is accepted by a financial institution should trigger a writedown of a percentage the monies owed to it by any citizen of that country. E.G if Lloyd's accept assistance from the crown between certain thresholds, then all citizens of the crown owing money to Lloyds have their debt reduced by 10% or 20% or whatever.

There has to be something in it for the ordinary taxpayer other than shouldering the burden created by the wreckless lending of our banks.

A write down is the same as toxic debt thus it would be a cycle lloyd's need money but no one will lend so the UK govt props them up but wipes 20% of the value off the good debts they have leading back to square one

The way things are heading in a few weeks there will be no such thing as good debts.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Gnevin on October 08, 2008, 08:53:32 PM
Where the f**k is all the bail out cash coming from? Surely this is more virtual money ? Is it time to return to the gold standard?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 08, 2008, 09:07:08 PM
Quote from: Gnevin on October 08, 2008, 08:53:32 PM
Where the f**k is all the bail out cash coming from? Surely this is more virtual money ? Is it time to return to the gold standard?

European Central Bank
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Gnevin on October 08, 2008, 09:13:59 PM
Quote from: orangeman on October 08, 2008, 09:07:08 PM
Quote from: Gnevin on October 08, 2008, 08:53:32 PM
Where the f**k is all the bail out cash coming from? Surely this is more virtual money ? Is it time to return to the gold standard?

European Central Bank

Surely they or the Fed don't have trillions of Euro/Dollars just lying around
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on October 08, 2008, 09:21:18 PM
Quote from: Gnevin on October 08, 2008, 09:13:59 PM
Quote from: orangeman on October 08, 2008, 09:07:08 PM
Quote from: Gnevin on October 08, 2008, 08:53:32 PM
Where the f**k is all the bail out cash coming from? Surely this is more virtual money ? Is it time to return to the gold standard?

European Central Bank

Surely they or the Fed don't have trillions of Euro/Dollars just lying around

The Fed merely prints some more dollars when they need them. That is part of the problem. Actually I should say that when the Republicans are in power the Fed prints more dollars, for example that is how they paid for Iraq.

Maybe the EU will do the same?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Gnevin on October 08, 2008, 09:29:24 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 08, 2008, 09:21:18 PM
Quote from: Gnevin on October 08, 2008, 09:13:59 PM
Quote from: orangeman on October 08, 2008, 09:07:08 PM
Quote from: Gnevin on October 08, 2008, 08:53:32 PM
Where the f**k is all the bail out cash coming from? Surely this is more virtual money ? Is it time to return to the gold standard?

European Central Bank

Surely they or the Fed don't have trillions of Euro/Dollars just lying around

The Fed merely prints some more dollars when they need them. That is part of the problem. Actually I should say that when the Republicans are in power the Fed prints more dollars, for example that is how they paid for Iraq.

Maybe the EU will do the same?

And wouldn't a return the gold standard stop this?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on October 08, 2008, 09:30:47 PM
Quote from: Gnevin on October 08, 2008, 09:29:24 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 08, 2008, 09:21:18 PM
Quote from: Gnevin on October 08, 2008, 09:13:59 PM
Quote from: orangeman on October 08, 2008, 09:07:08 PM
Quote from: Gnevin on October 08, 2008, 08:53:32 PM
Where the f**k is all the bail out cash coming from? Surely this is more virtual money ? Is it time to return to the gold standard?

European Central Bank

Surely they or the Fed don't have trillions of Euro/Dollars just lying around

The Fed merely prints some more dollars when they need them. That is part of the problem. Actually I should say that when the Republicans are in power the Fed prints more dollars, for example that is how they paid for Iraq.

Maybe the EU will do the same?

And wouldn't a return the gold standard stop this?

Yes it would but the Fed would be bankrupt, which mightn't help what's going on at the moment.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Gnevin on October 08, 2008, 09:33:44 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 08, 2008, 09:30:47 PM
Quote from: Gnevin on October 08, 2008, 09:29:24 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 08, 2008, 09:21:18 PM
Quote from: Gnevin on October 08, 2008, 09:13:59 PM
Quote from: orangeman on October 08, 2008, 09:07:08 PM
Quote from: Gnevin on October 08, 2008, 08:53:32 PM
Where the f**k is all the bail out cash coming from? Surely this is more virtual money ? Is it time to return to the gold standard?

European Central Bank

Surely they or the Fed don't have trillions of Euro/Dollars just lying around

The Fed merely prints some more dollars when they need them. That is part of the problem. Actually I should say that when the Republicans are in power the Fed prints more dollars, for example that is how they paid for Iraq.

Maybe the EU will do the same?

And wouldn't a return the gold standard stop this?

Yes it would but the Fed would be bankrupt, which mightn't help what's going on at the moment.

f**king shambles, if some third world country did this you'd say typical but US and EU .
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 08, 2008, 09:35:17 PM
Extraordinary times require extraordinary solutions.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: boojangles on October 08, 2008, 09:36:30 PM
Quote from: lfdown2 on October 08, 2008, 03:26:57 PM
folks, perhaps slightly of topic but could any of ye explain to me the easiest way to buy shares in a company?
And any useful websites

Cheers
I think Goodbody are share brokers or can definetely put you in the right direction.Reuters website is also an excellent guide to look at before buying any stocks or shares.Updates by the minute.
Commodities like Gold,Silver,Diamonds etc looks like the way to go
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on October 08, 2008, 09:46:11 PM
Quote from: Gnevin on October 08, 2008, 09:33:44 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 08, 2008, 09:30:47 PM
Quote from: Gnevin on October 08, 2008, 09:29:24 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 08, 2008, 09:21:18 PM
Quote from: Gnevin on October 08, 2008, 09:13:59 PM
Quote from: orangeman on October 08, 2008, 09:07:08 PM
Quote from: Gnevin on October 08, 2008, 08:53:32 PM
Where the f**k is all the bail out cash coming from? Surely this is more virtual money ? Is it time to return to the gold standard?

European Central Bank

Surely they or the Fed don't have trillions of Euro/Dollars just lying around

The Fed merely prints some more dollars when they need them. That is part of the problem. Actually I should say that when the Republicans are in power the Fed prints more dollars, for example that is how they paid for Iraq.

Maybe the EU will do the same?

And wouldn't a return the gold standard stop this?

Yes it would but the Fed would be bankrupt, which mightn't help what's going on at the moment.

f**king shambles, if some third world country did this you'd say typical but US and EU .

In fairness I don't think the EU have done it yet.

The Republicans do it as a plan.

1. Get munitions, logistics, oil and transport companies (Boeing, Lookheed, Northrop) to make donations.
2. Get your muppet elected.
3. Start a war, preferably one that enhances control of oil reserves.
4. Print money to pay for it.
5. Award contracts associated with before, during and after the war to as many of the companies in line 1. above as possible.
6. Start again.

Up to now it was thought that as long as the dollar is the currency for trading oil, printing extra dollars would have little impact. But now.........who knows?

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 08, 2008, 09:50:08 PM
Can anyone explain why the dollar is gaining so much strength versus the £ and the € ?????
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Gnevin on October 08, 2008, 09:51:22 PM
Don't Republicans also have a model where foreign debt with ultra lower interest rates are  inflated away to be meaning less. So they get a loan of 1 bl in 1990 at .25% with in inflation that 1bl is now worth half as much if that makes sense?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Lone Shark on October 09, 2008, 04:53:38 AM
Quote from: magpie seanie on October 06, 2008, 05:42:11 PM
It absolutely galls me that the government are doing this but it is a necessary evil because we have gone so far down the road of corruption, greed and under handedness that we cannot turn away from it immediately without dire consequences. Joe Higgins' (someone I wouldn't be inclined to agree with all that often) piece earlier on this thread was hard to argue with. A touch exaggerated it could be argued in parts but a damning indictment on our so called democracy and economic philosophy. He is right that there is no opposition in the Dáil. There is very little difference between any of them.

First up, can we please not play the usual Fianna Fáil trick on this one? This is the most malignant and harmful piece of spin that Zanu-FF have managed to place in the public consciousness - this notion that no matter what they do, "shur the other crowd are just as bad". Joe Higgins, a man who I disagree with utterly but respect immensely, should know better than to be buying into this stuff. Seanie, I know you genuinely believe this and I don't think you were trying to intentionally play the party line here, but part of the reason Ireland is so bollixed right now is because of this belief. They say that in democracy you get the government you deserve. As an electorate, we have fallen for the "man of the people" guff that Ahern sold us, many people bought into the idea that FG are useless, despite the fact that nobody has a clue whether they are any good or not. They're like the hard working lad in the club that was no good under age and doesn't have the right surname. He keeps a low profile at training, and mutterings about him not being worth a shot keep him off the team. FG may be good, they may be atrocious. We simply don't know. Any more than we know whether they would have turned a blind eye to the banks leading us all into Armageddon, just like FF have.

The best thing that could happen Ireland would be for us to elect an inept opposition. For what it's worth, I believe FF to be the most competent government we have. However just like Brian Goggin might actually be the best man to run BOI, if he's never called to account for anything, he'll do a bad job.

So it is in government - we knew, deep down, going into the last election that the potential Taoiseach was [Edited by Mod 3 ] ALLEGEDLY up to his neck in sleaze, bribery and ill gotten gains. Even his supporters tended to brush off some of the proven dodgy monies like in Manchester, by saying that "shur twas only a few pound, it wasn't like he was taking millions." That's okay then. I'll break into your house tomorrow, but because I'll only take the TV and the petty cash and leave the jewellery and the car keys behind, I'm sure you'd say that I was a grand lad and meant no harm.

We knew, as a nation, and we honest to God went and did it anyway. Now I don't know what message you think that sent to the darkened halls of FF where the party strategists plot the course of the nation, but it sure as feck wasn't a demand for accountability. It was a case of keep the gravy train going by any means necessary.

So here we are then.

At various times, what this country needed, even allowing for the global factors, was to accept that the party was over, to take our medicine and get on with playing our part in the world economy. Of course, just like the Irish always do, the only thing that tells us that the party is over is when the guards call over or when the money runs out. An empty pocket won't get another round in, but by God the prospect of a massive hangover won't stop us having ten more for the road. We only stop when we're forced. We needed to cool the housing crisis. We needed to understand that having the highest cost of living in the world was not a good idea. We needed to get rid of the idea that no matter where you own land, some stroke of a councillor will always get it rezoned for you.

(In a country with as low a population as ours, in 2007 the average price for agricultural land was THREE TIMES that of the next highest country - in the world. Not in Europe - in the world. Holland had to salvage their land out of the sea, and yet they still valued it less - why? Because even if you owned thirty acres in the absolute back of beyonds, you would not sell it for fair agricultural price because God forbid the next guy got the zoning windfall. They say the disconnect between Irish house rents and prices is crazy - have a look at the rental yield on land and tell me we had a normal situation!!)

Likewise with the banks, the lads needed to hold their hands up, say that they made some bad loans, write them down, squeeze the developer into taking some action and learn from the mistakes. But of course that would be the honest, unpleasant way. Much more fun to roll up the interest, mark it as a performing loan, pay yourself whoppong great bonuses and dividends out of this fictional money, and then have Willie O'Dea go into the Dáil to say that the banks have €520bn in assets. Indeed they do Willie. Funny how the banks tell you that they have €520bn assets and €400bn liabilities, giving a nett value of €120bn - and yet if you take the market capitalisations according to the quoted share price (which is haemorraghing by the minute), these companies are considered by the market to be worth less than €10bn. I wonder why this could be? Surely Willie wouldn't lie to me?

As regards the bailout plan, the funny thing is that it could just be a ballsy move that might just work out. Obviously the moral hazard makes me sick to my stomach, but if it's a choice between moral hazard and letting the bad guys win or else doing the righteous thing and in doing so do untold damage to the lives and livelihoods of thousands of innocent Irish citizens, well then I'm old enough and pragmatic enough to live with the stain on conscience that supporting the bailout would leave. I've no doubt Richard Bruton felt all dirty inside when he supported the FF plan, but he probably felt it was the right thing.

The funny thing is that if it were ever called upon, I presume all we'd end up doing is laughing at the banks concerned and saying that ye must be having a laugh. It's the equivalent of me insuring the Mona Lisa against damage. I'll happily cash the premium and say I'm good for it, but if a modern day Martin Cahill broke into the Louvre one night and left with the infamous smile under his oxter, I don't think that Louvre would be too happy with the dust that would fall out of my pocket. It's the most nonsense guarantee in the world. We can barely afford the price of the few dirty unclean hospital beds that we have - we're being told to prepare for the worst budget since the war because we're €5-7bn short, and yet we'd have no bother mustering up hundreds of billions if we need to? Aye.

Not to mention the fact that I'd say if it went to the supreme court, chances are Brian Lenihan is acting way outside his constitutional remit, gambling the very solvency of the nation. I'd say if this bill goes through, a smart arse barrister with time on his hands could make a great case for treason against himself and Cowen if they tried actually.

But that's neither here nor there - it could work, and the option to put some real and meaningful restraints on the banks are there. Of course this is where I get upset, because he're's what should be happening, and none of it is.

(1) Banks should be told that there are no staff bonuses at any level and no dividends to be paid for as long as this guarantee is in place.
(2) The premium should be fair and economic - at least of the order of 1%, or 4bn per annum. If they don't like it, then go their own way. And none of this crap about how it'll be paid "if the guarantee is called on" - what the feck is that? I'd love to insure my car on those terms. I'll just tell Royal and Sun Alliance that I'll send in a premium the minute that I have an accident. No bother at all.
(3) Recapitalisation is vital. More deposits are all very well, but the issue is potential insolvency. Banks are supposed to be lending no more than 12 times their tier one capital. Ours are now up to around 40. All external subsidiaries and holdings to be sold off, and a compulsory rights issue of shares, followed by going the market and issuing enough shares to get back to 12:1.
(4) Fire both the Financial regulator and the head of the Central Bank. Hearing Patrick Neary on prime time last week was harrowing, and he's still in denial. Get him the feck out, and replace them with the most hard ass, contrary, stickler for detail we can find in the country. If banking licences have to be threatened, then do so.
(5) All auditors who went through the books and were satisfied to sign off on performing loans, to be told that they had an option of taking another look. If this was in fact their final answer, that the state thanks them for their time but reminds them that they will do their best to fully punish any auditor who's work is subsequently proven to be sub par, as well as suing them and their company for negligence and related damages - potentially quite high in this case.
(6) The state to sit on the board of all banks covered by the guarantee. (And not to just send a yes man - this person should be able to devote real and meaningful time to this task, not just another job for the boys where somebody gets €100k for attending four meetings a year and nodding.
(7) Above all, a few public hangings of those who are showing nothing but blatant disrespect to the system, to the nation and to all who sail in her. The likes of the two lads who bought the Anglo shares the day that they bailout was agreed - I know they're going to end up taking a bath on them, but that's not the point. A fricking 18 year old would know that it was inappropriate, and that disclosure meant that they were absolutely guaranteed to be found out - they didn't care, they just did it anyway. If they are that brazen when they know they'll be found out, imagine what they'd do when they might get away with it? Imagine the corruption that goes on in the background?

That's the final thing - it's funny how even when the world's markets fall, we tend to add on an extra 5% collapse, just for good measure. Again, reflecting the psychology of the state, our stock exchange is full of wheelers and dealers, lads who nod and wink and who live off the insider dealing. It is globally recognised as an absolute third world set up, comparable with the worst out there for shameless illegal practices, be they inseider dealing, ramping, collusion, you name it. Foreign investors realised this ages ago and have been bailing out en masse. The longer that we go without making a few very public executions, the longer it will take for the world to trust us again. Yet again, we must take our medicine, but we continue to hide in the closet and pretend that it'll all be okay.

I'm just pissed off that I went about buying gold last week and I still haven't got it nailed down. It cost me €40 an ounce today alone and I need to get this doon immediately. (As an aside, gotta love what happened today - liquidity is a global problem, nobody is lending, so what do we do - CUT interest rates. Basically, demand is high, supply is at an all time low, so we'll reduce the price - like that'll fix it. But God forbid the all knowing all seeing markets don't get what they want.) Thsi ship is going down folks. I strongly suggest getting a bit of yellow metal into your hand, because the world has seen nothing like what's coming. The only way to fix this is by getting back to positive, REAL interest rates of the order of 2%. Basically, if inflation is 4%, the ECB rate should be 6%. Until that happens, we are on a highway to destruction. Of course in order to make that happen, people would have to take a lot of unpleasant stuff down their throats.

That's not going to happen, so go buy gold. Do it now. I'm not feckin kidding.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Zapatista on October 09, 2008, 08:20:31 AM
Fair balls to ye Lane Shark. I'm f**king sick of the poxy ba*t*rds up to their eye balls in shit. The problem isn't that we just ignore them the problem is that we all want a piece of the pie.

It's too late to try a FG Government, what this country needs is a good hard ass dictatorship. 10 years of taking no shit and oweing no favours to anyone. The oposition and the Government are both cut from the same political cloth (if not the same moral cloth). It would take a FG Government 100 years to put an end to the bad practice and corruption ingrained into all the Irish systems. If there was a FG Government with a strong FF oposition the delayling and cost in accountability (as seen with the tribunals were there is no accountability) could be endless. A decent dictator would lock them up were they belong. 10 years and then an overthrow by the people were we can actually feel like we are in control of those controlling the country. Anything less will result in a return to today. The poster earlier in the thread who talked about getting armed and heading down Leinster St could be our only hope.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Declan on October 09, 2008, 08:48:42 AM
Excellent post LS
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Zapatista on October 09, 2008, 08:57:00 AM
Quote from: Declan on October 09, 2008, 08:48:42 AM
Excellent post LS

:D

Just looking back and seen it was you Declan. Ye still on for it? I'd say you'd make a great dictator ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 09, 2008, 09:04:04 AM
Loan Shark - makes a whole lot of sense  but buying gold now at inflated prices ???
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Gaaboardmod3 on October 09, 2008, 09:31:56 AM
Lone Shark,

I edited a couple of comments in there. There has been no proof of criminal behaviour by Ahern, so it's all allegations at this stage until something definitive comes out. There is certainly no proof for the statement you made at the start of your 4th paragraph. And we all no Bertie is a good GAA man, so he might read it and sue our arses.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: AZOffaly on October 09, 2008, 09:39:40 AM
QuoteThey're like the hard working lad in the club that was no good under age and doesn't have the right surname. He keeps a low profile at training, and mutterings about him not being worth a shot keep him off the team.

Hmmmm :D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Declan on October 09, 2008, 10:03:19 AM
QuoteI'd say you'd make a great dictator

A compassionate one Zapatista!!!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: PadraicHenryPearse on October 09, 2008, 10:11:38 AM
having worked in a bank branch, i find this harsh on your average branch or dept. bank Official, i don't see how they are responsibile for this.

Quote) Banks should be told that there are no staff bonuses at any level and no dividends to be paid for as long as this guarantee is in place

otherwise excellent post.

PHP
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: the Deel Rover on October 09, 2008, 10:20:55 AM
Quote from: PadraicHenryPearse on October 09, 2008, 10:11:38 AM
having worked in a bank branch, i find this harsh on your average branch or dept. bank Official, i don't see how they are responsibile for this.

Quote) Banks should be told that there are no staff bonuses at any level and no dividends to be paid for as long as this guarantee is in place

otherwise excellent post.

PHP

Yes your correct there php the ordinary bank official get paid fcuk all in some case slighly over the mininum wage  and a lot of them were on rolling cotracts in later years, yet they were put under immense pressure from management to reach targets be it selling life insurance , mortgage protection , credit cards maangement didn't care about the customer all they cared about was reaching thier targets and collecting their big fat bonus at the end of the year.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Croí na hÉireann on October 09, 2008, 10:23:13 AM
Quote from: Lone Shark on October 09, 2008, 04:53:38 AMThat's not going to happen, so go buy gold. Do it now. I'm not feckin kidding.

Been thinking about this myself, any tips/links on where to start??? Excellent article by the way...
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: PadraicHenryPearse on October 09, 2008, 10:37:54 AM
that was me deel rover. i am only 26 but i remember when it was all about the customer even if service was still slow u did your best for the customer, now its about cross selling as many products and making as much as you can from customer (that word isn't really used anymore either internally). glad i have a yr off might extend to 2 years and stay in Oz.

on the gold front, OVOCA GOLD are up 200% this morning. were 0.02 at start 0.06 now. will it go further or come back???
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Down Gael on October 09, 2008, 10:49:11 AM
Excellent post Loan Shark, pity we couldnt get someone like you to run the country.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: the Deel Rover on October 09, 2008, 11:08:17 AM
Quote from: PadraicHenryPearse on October 09, 2008, 10:37:54 AM
that was me deel rover. i am only 26 but i remember when it was all about the customer even if service was still slow u did your best for the customer, now its about cross selling as many products and making as much as you can from customer (that word isn't really used anymore either internally). glad i have a yr off might extend to 2 years and stay in Oz.

on the gold front, OVOCA GOLD are up 200% this morning. were 0.02 at start 0.06 now. will it go further or come back???

Farr play to ya php you were dead right to get away for a while i know a few lads that have come back from oz recently and the wished to fcul they stayed away for another while. Whats the job situation like over there is it hard to get work ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on October 09, 2008, 11:14:13 AM
Quote from: Gaaboardmod3 on October 09, 2008, 09:31:56 AM
Lone Shark,

I edited a couple of comments in there. There has been no proof of criminal behaviour by Ahern, so it's all allegations at this stage until something definitive comes out. There is certainly no proof for the statement you made at the start of your 4th paragraph. And we all no Bertie is a good GAA man, so he might read it and sue our arses.
He has admitted himself that he has had to make a settlement with the revenue, afaik tax evasion is a criminal offence.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on October 09, 2008, 11:15:27 AM
Quote from: PadraicHenryPearse on October 09, 2008, 10:37:54 AM
that was me deel rover. i am only 26 but i remember when it was all about the customer even if service was still slow u did your best for the customer, now its about cross selling as many products and making as much as you can from customer (that word isn't really used anymore either internally). glad i have a yr off might extend to 2 years and stay in Oz.

on the gold front, OVOCA GOLD are up 200% this morning. were 0.02 at start 0.06 now. will it go further or come back???
I think gold might be overdone at this stage, lead would be better (you can always smelt it into bullets ;)).
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: PadraicHenryPearse on October 09, 2008, 11:24:19 AM
not really working yet. only gone 5 mths. i am temping (2 mths) in a mining compnay before travelling again, looking at spreadsheets all day but its easy and the pay is ok although the dollar has gone from .66 to .52 against the euro since i've come over.

Loads of jobs in Perth anway. I had loads of interviews lined up but got the first job i applied and probably the best/easier for the best money. Avoiding going home as i'll have to face up to my Mortgage and full-time employment again. Luckily i have .8 above ecb for the life of the mortgage which helps alot while i'm away as the rent almost covers the interest only part.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Lone Shark on October 09, 2008, 11:59:10 AM
Quote from: Zapatista on October 09, 2008, 08:20:31 AM
Fair balls to ye Lane Shark. I'm f**king sick of the poxy ba*t*rds up to their eye balls in shit. The problem isn't that we just ignore them the problem is that we all want a piece of the pie.

It's too late to try a FG Government, what this country needs is a good hard ass dictatorship. 10 years of taking no shit and oweing no favours to anyone. The oposition and the Government are both cut from the same political cloth (if not the same moral cloth). It would take a FG Government 100 years to put an end to the bad practice and corruption ingrained into all the Irish systems. If there was a FG Government with a strong FF oposition the delayling and cost in accountability (as seen with the tribunals were there is no accountability) could be endless. A decent dictator would lock them up were they belong. 10 years and then an overthrow by the people were we can actually feel like we are in control of those controlling the country. Anything less will result in a return to today. The poster earlier in the thread who talked about getting armed and heading down Leinster St could be our only hope.


I actually went through this phase of being sickened by it all as well. I went through all these thoughts in my head, but the truth is - and much as I hate to say it because most people I meet in this country are damn fine people - as a nation, collectively, we want things this way. I'd love to live in a fairer society with respect for the rule of law, a society where crime against your fellow citizen, be it assault or fraud, is harshly punished. However democracy is the collective will of the people. It's like when I used to work in the bookies - people talk about how they want horse racing to be cleaner, but they don't - they just want to be the one on the inside track. So it is with democracy. We pretend we want to live in a fair society where no stroking and dodging the system goes on, but by our votes it's clear that what we actually want is just to be the guy who gets the local councillor to rezone their four acres. We want to be the guy who gets the job by way of a nod and wink. We want to be the guy who earns €5k a year tax free doing nixers. We say we want a democracy, but in fact, by our votes it's clear that we want the perpetuation of the gombeen kleptocracy in which we live.

I hate it, and I'll always go against it, but the people have no right to be wrong, so to speak. Such is democracy.

Regarding the dictatorship thing, the problem with that is that it's always another guy who's doing it rather than you. You're bound to disagree at some stage, and unfortunately when you do, then the lack of accountability or mandate really sticks in the craw.

Quote from: orangeman on October 09, 2008, 09:04:04 AM
Loan Shark - makes a whole lot of sense  but buying gold now at inflated prices ???

That depends. It's inflated relative to where it was two years ago, but is it really inflated relative to where it should be. Here's my thinking, laid bare for those who want to come out and argue with me.

Gold and silver are the only truly globally accepted forms of currency in existence. Everything else is in theory backed by them to a certain degree at some point. However we've seen that in the US, they're bailing out the banks to the tune of $700bn. The UK just wrote their own bailout yesterday, same principle. The EU is doing it piece by piece for now, but you can be damn sure that their bailout will come too. All over the world the demand for money (in the economic sense) is at it's highest, while the solution appears to be rolling the printing presses (in a manner of speaking) and REDUCING the cost. All to dance to the tune of the beloved markets. In this environment, the value of real money, money that can't be created out of thin air, can only go up. It may have been cheaper a while ago, but to me it's no different to a bookie going up with 10/1 about Kilkenny to win next year's hurling All Ireland. If you went in to bet on it and it was suddenly 5/1, you might feel like you missed out, but on the other hand, you're still getting the best price of a lifetime.

As I write this, I feel very conscious of a fact that needs pointing out here - I am not a financial advisor in any shape or form. I am a former odds compiler turned GAA writer who did a small bit of economics in school and college, and I do take an interest in these matters. These are my thoughts, and my thoughts only. I am acting on them, but if things go pear shaped, it's easy for me to accept it. Here's the different things that can happen, along with my percentage chances of it occuring.

(1) Gold falls in price. Obviously this can happen with any commodity. I personally think that gold is only as low as it is because central banks have been disposing of it in order to keep the price low. Ask any broker and they'll tell you that demand for gold is at an all time high. A strong surge in demand for gold is indicative of a lack of faith in fiat currency, and central banks most certainly don't want that hitting the streets. Bad enough we have no faith in the banks that hold our Euros - imagine we had no faith in the euros themselves? HOWEVER - they cannot do this indefinitely. Central banks sell gold, and the market absolutely gobbles it up every time. I do not consider this likely - my estimation is 20%

(2) Gold holds steady, barely covering the transaction costs at best. This is always possible. Som,e would say it's the most likely, though I don't quite disagree. There is so much turmoil still in the system that something has to happen which should lead to a swing of some sort, but then you never know. My estimation for this is 20%

(3) Gold increases sharply, maybe to around double where it is now. To me, this is by far the most likely scenario. Currencies are being devalued left right and centre, the world has no appetite for high interest rates, so we'll get high inflation instead. Those with savings will take it up the ass while all those people who borrowed more than they can afford get rewarded for their profligacy. The difference is that either way John Doe gets reamed, but with a high mortgage payment, he sees it happening and it's easy to pin the blame on someone - banks, central bank, ECB, someone. With inflation, he notices it too but only some of the time, and it's death by a thousand paper cuts. Above all, there's no obvious bad guy. Politically it's a lot more acceptable, so that's what we'll get. In that environment, those who want to do something about it will engage in the phenomenon known as "flight to quality" - usually commodities. Oil is too speculative for my liking, while Silver has a mahoosive commission attached to buying. Hence Gold. That said, if you could get into silver at anything near the spot price, then there are those who make a good case for the fact that the upside their is so much higher. My guess- 58%.

And now for the other 2%. This is why people always say with investing - put 15% into gold and hope that it doesn't do well. This is the insurance bit, which despite what it may sound like, I think could happen. It's a 50/1 shot, but it's a genuine 50/1 shot.

Something big happens. Saudis stop taking dollars for oil. The Chinese look to cash in their trillion dollars in holdings. The UK, Spain or Italy is bankrupted paying up on one of these guarantees. Anything along those lines. The price of one of the world's major currencies takes a sharp nosedive, and then people get worried. People begin to realise that fractional reserve banking can only, in long run, benefit the banks. People begin to realise that their currency, which they thought was fine, is backed by all sorts of toxic derivatives, T-bills from countries that are going to the wall, and very little real stuff. People want to get out - not quite beans, shotguns and tin foil hats, but you get my drift. The world panics, and they run to the only form of money that mankind has always trusted since day one.

Let's be clear here - I don't think this is likely, and I certainly wouldn't be gloating about my miniscule gold holding if that camee about. However neither do I consider it completely impossible, as our paymasters would have you believe. In this scenario, all the euros in the world aren't worth muck, and also - it's no good having gold certificates when the country in which your gold is stored changes the law not to let any of it leave the country and refunds your investment or some such. Basically, something along the lines of 1933 America happens. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102) In this instance, I want the gold itself. That is why I'm paying a serious premium to take physical delivery of Kruger Rand rather than just buying gold certificates. I may be crazy, but I call it armageddon insurance, and I want it. If I'm wrong, then the world's okay and I can live with that too.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Lone Shark on October 09, 2008, 12:12:03 PM
Quote from: Gaaboardmod3 on October 09, 2008, 09:31:56 AM
Lone Shark,

I edited a couple of comments in there. There has been no proof of criminal behaviour by Ahern, so it's all allegations at this stage until something definitive comes out. There is certainly no proof for the statement you made at the start of your 4th paragraph. And we all no Bertie is a good GAA man, so he might read it and sue our arses.

Fair enough. I would tend to disagree in the sense that he's put enough stuff on the record at this stage, but there's no point in this board getting brought into bother on account of my rantings.

Quote from: AZOffaly on October 09, 2008, 09:39:40 AM
QuoteThey're like the hard working lad in the club that was no good under age and doesn't have the right surname. He keeps a low profile at training, and mutterings about him not being worth a shot keep him off the team.

Hmmmm :D

Nothing personal about this one, I can assure you! Sure we'd have no famous names in our club anyway ...  :P

Quote from: PadraicHenryPearse on October 09, 2008, 10:11:38 AM
having worked in a bank branch, i find this harsh on your average branch or dept. bank Official, i don't see how they are responsibile for this.

Quote) Banks should be told that there are no staff bonuses at any level and no dividends to be paid for as long as this guarantee is in place

otherwise excellent post.

PHP

In about 80% of cases, they're not. I would make the exception for all the small town managers and advisors that advised people to get up to their necks in leveraged debt however. I don't care how much you were incentivised, people were encouraged when trading up to keep the old house, rent it out and borrow off the equity. Thousands of Gardaí, nurses, factory workers and tradesmen suddenly became property speculators, and have had their lives irreversibly FUBARed by some guy chasing an extra hundred euro on his bonus cheque.

However even for the front line staff, my point stands. The business needs to minimise outflows in order to maximise retained earnings and thus capitalisation. It's not nice, but it sure beats the alternative of the bank going bust. Possibly if you wanted to write in some for of employee's equity scheme, to be materialised when the guarantee is lifted and the bank is liquid again, then that would be fair enough. For now the important thing is that the staff still have their jobs.

Quote from: Croí na hÉireann on October 09, 2008, 10:23:13 AM
Quote from: Lone Shark on October 09, 2008, 04:53:38 AMThat's not going to happen, so go buy gold. Do it now. I'm not feckin kidding.

Been thinking about this myself, any tips/links on where to start??? Excellent article by the way...

A few people have PM'ed me over this. To be honest, I don't know a whole lot about it. There are plenty of online brokers who will look after it for you in terms of certificates, which as I've covered in my previous post, would do fine in all but the most apocalyptic scenario. I want the gold itself, so I'm going through Gold.ie. I'm only just underway myself though. It was always in the back of my mind, but this Irish government guarantee finally got the skids under me.

Quote from: Down Gael on October 09, 2008, 10:49:11 AM
Excellent post Loan Shark, pity we couldnt get someone like you to run the country.

I'm no good at helping ould wans and other constituents get medical cards that they're not entitled to. I'm not what this country wants.

Quote from: Bogball XV on October 09, 2008, 11:15:27 AM
Quote from: PadraicHenryPearse on October 09, 2008, 10:37:54 AM
that was me deel rover. i am only 26 but i remember when it was all about the customer even if service was still slow u did your best for the customer, now its about cross selling as many products and making as much as you can from customer (that word isn't really used anymore either internally). glad i have a yr off might extend to 2 years and stay in Oz.

on the gold front, OVOCA GOLD are up 200% this morning. were 0.02 at start 0.06 now. will it go further or come back???
I think gold might be overdone at this stage, lead would be better (you can always smelt it into bullets ;)).

I've no idea about lead myself, so you could be right. However it's back to that whole "worst case scenario" thing again for me.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Croí na hÉireann on October 09, 2008, 12:51:31 PM
Quote from: Lone Shark on October 09, 2008, 12:12:03 PM
Quote from: Croí na hÉireann on October 09, 2008, 10:23:13 AM
Quote from: Lone Shark on October 09, 2008, 04:53:38 AMThat's not going to happen, so go buy gold. Do it now. I'm not feckin kidding.
Been thinking about this myself, any tips/links on where to start??? Excellent article by the way...
A few people have PM'ed me over this. To be honest, I don't know a whole lot about it. There are plenty of online brokers who will look after it for you in terms of certificates, which as I've covered in my previous post, would do fine in all but the most apocalyptic scenario. I want the gold itself, so I'm going through Gold.ie. I'm only just underway myself though. It was always in the back of my mind, but this Irish government guarantee finally got the skids under me.

Thanks for that, gold.ie came straight up on google. Don't think I'd fancy keeping gold in the house though, could always look at safety deposit boxes I suppose... Might do some research into certificates for gold stored in this country. If you're selling shares LS, drop us a line  :P
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 09, 2008, 12:52:28 PM
The Irish government has said it will extend its guarantee scheme to some non-Irish owned banks with a major presence in the Republic or Ireland.

Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said the Ulster Bank, First Active, Halifax Bank of Scotland, IIB Bank and Postbank were all eligible for the scheme.

The Ulster Bank - a subsidiary of the Royal Bank of Scotland - had applied to join the scheme.

The 400bn euro guarantee initially covered six Irish banks.

Mr Lenihan said on Thursday he was extending the guarantee to banks with a broad footprint in the Republic's domestic economy.

He said there would be additional limitations to ensure the support covered liabilities in the national economy, as opposed to the Irish subsidiaries and their parent groups.

He said it was another sign of the determination of EU member states to ensure the stability of the banking system.

Meanwhile, most European and Asian shares have rallied after investors absorbed news of a co-ordinated interest rate cut.

The UK bank rescue package boosted financial shares, with HBOS up 30% and Royal Bank of Scotland adding 15%.




IS THIS GOOD OR BAD ???????
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: pintsofguinness on October 09, 2008, 01:29:25 PM
Quotehttp://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7660438.stm
Whoops!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Down Gael on October 09, 2008, 01:30:52 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on October 09, 2008, 01:29:25 PM
Quotehttp://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7660438.stm
Whoops!

This is going to get really messy. And its always Joe Public who end up paying for it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: pintsofguinness on October 09, 2008, 01:35:22 PM
Quote from: Down Gael on October 09, 2008, 01:30:52 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on October 09, 2008, 01:29:25 PM
Quotehttp://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7660438.stm
Whoops!

This is going to get really messy. And its always Joe Public who end up paying for it.
Are they f**king stupid or what though? How long has this crisis been going on and people wondering if savings/deposits would be safe and it never dawned on one of these councils (or the govt who was suppose to be advising them) you know what that 5 million we've got in Iceland may not be safe! Silly c***ts.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 09, 2008, 01:41:32 PM
Most people realised last year whenever the Icelandic banks were offering 7.5% for deposits that they had to be in trouble - if it looks and sunds too good, it usually is !
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Donagh on October 09, 2008, 01:46:30 PM
US debt clock runs out of digits

(http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45093000/jpg/_45093029_debtclock226.jpg)


Until last month, the clock had enough digits to measure US debt levels

The US government's debts have ballooned so badly the National Debt Clock in New York has run out of digits to record the spiralling figure.

The digital counter marks the national debt level, but when that passed the $10 trillion point last month, the sign could not display the full amount.

The board was erected to highlight the $2.7 trillion level of debt in 1989.

The clock's owners say two more zeros will be added, allowing the clock to record a quadrillion dollars of debt.

Douglas Durst, son of the late Seymour Durst - the clock's inventor - hopes to replace the Manhattan clock with its lengthier replacement early next year.

For the time being, the Times Square counter's electronic dollar sign has been replaced with the extra digit required.

For its part, the digital dollar symbol has been supplanted by a cheaper version - perhaps a sign of the times for the American economy.

Some economists believe the $700bn bail-out plan for ailing US financial institutions could send the national debt level to $11 trillion.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Main Street on October 09, 2008, 02:17:39 PM
Quote from: orangeman on October 09, 2008, 01:41:32 PM
Most people realised last year whenever the Icelandic banks were offering 7.5% for deposits that they had to be in trouble - if it looks and sunds too good, it usually is !
Not really, I don't think the savings accounts were more than 6.5% which are not much more than other offered savings accounts like the some in the Post Office.
Those savings accounts were recommended by the Finance Regulator and gauranteed by the State.
People were not greedy using these accounts, most of them were people who trusted their own Financial regulator to use these approved and insured accounts.
Only in the foot note of a sub paragraph with the aid of a  mag glass could you decipher  that the first £17k was gauranteed by the Icelandic finance regulator.

Yes greed is the problem but that is the greed which caused the deregulation of the lending institutions and the subsequent drift to chaos. The ordinary people who invested savings in insured accounts were doing what they were led to believe was the responsible thing.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: magpie seanie on October 09, 2008, 03:06:50 PM
Excellent posts and comments Lone Shark but you have me slightly wrong I think. I'm certainly not a major FF man and won't be voting that way in the near future. My comments were related to the piece I was after reading. Can you explain to me the major differences in economic philosophy between FG and FF? I don't think there are many/any. Its not the same things as "who would be the better government". Higgins was pointing out that all the parties in the Dáil have the same basic beliefs in "the market". If FG/Lab were in government for the last 10-15 year things would be more or less the same right now - would they not? They claimed that themselves around election time.

You are absolutely spot on about a lot of things but one really close to my heart is this - people not really wanting no corruption. Most do just want the inside track and fail to see the hypocrisy of complaining when things go against them.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Billys Boots on October 09, 2008, 04:00:43 PM
Quote(1) Banks should be told that there are no staff bonuses at any level and no dividends to be paid for as long as this guarantee is in place.
(2) The premium should be fair and economic - at least of the order of 1%, or 4bn per annum. If they don't like it, then go their own way. And none of this crap about how it'll be paid "if the guarantee is called on" - what the feck is that? I'd love to insure my car on those terms. I'll just tell Royal and Sun Alliance that I'll send in a premium the minute that I have an accident. No bother at all.
(3) Recapitalisation is vital. More deposits are all very well, but the issue is potential insolvency. Banks are supposed to be lending no more than 12 times their tier one capital. Ours are now up to around 40. All external subsidiaries and holdings to be sold off, and a compulsory rights issue of shares, followed by going the market and issuing enough shares to get back to 12:1.
(4) Fire both the Financial regulator and the head of the Central Bank. Hearing Patrick Neary on prime time last week was harrowing, and he's still in denial. Get him the feck out, and replace them with the most hard ass, contrary, stickler for detail we can find in the country. If banking licences have to be threatened, then do so.
(5) All auditors who went through the books and were satisfied to sign off on performing loans, to be told that they had an option of taking another look. If this was in fact their final answer, that the state thanks them for their time but reminds them that they will do their best to fully punish any auditor who's work is subsequently proven to be sub par, as well as suing them and their company for negligence and related damages - potentially quite high in this case.
(6) The state to sit on the board of all banks covered by the guarantee. (And not to just send a yes man - this person should be able to devote real and meaningful time to this task, not just another job for the boys where somebody gets €100k for attending four meetings a year and nodding.
(7) Above all, a few public hangings of those who are showing nothing but blatant disrespect to the system, to the nation and to all who sail in her. The likes of the two lads who bought the Anglo shares the day that they bailout was agreed - I know they're going to end up taking a bath on them, but that's not the point. A fricking 18 year old would know that it was inappropriate, and that disclosure meant that they were absolutely guaranteed to be found out - they didn't care, they just did it anyway. If they are that brazen when they know they'll be found out, imagine what they'd do when they might get away with it? Imagine the corruption that goes on in the background?

Lone Shark, if you stood for election with this alone as your manifesto, I'd vote for you (and I reckon so would an awful lot of others).
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 09, 2008, 05:26:19 PM
Shares down again today - where the f--k is the bottom ??????
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on October 09, 2008, 05:52:22 PM
Quote from: Fionntamhnach on October 09, 2008, 04:40:35 PM
I've a funny feeling that Muppet might rename this thread "The Big Balls up" within the next few days...

Funnily enough I was thinking about that. Seeing as you were the first to mention it I'll give you the choice:

"The Big Balls up"

or

"The Credit c**k up"
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 09, 2008, 05:53:17 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 09, 2008, 05:52:22 PM
Quote from: Fionntamhnach on October 09, 2008, 04:40:35 PM
I've a funny feeling that Muppet might rename this thread "The Big Balls up" within the next few days...

Funnily enough I was thinking about that. Seeing as you were the first to mention it I'll give you the choice:

"The Big Balls up"

or

"The Credit c**k up"


The latter is better I think.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Lone Shark on October 09, 2008, 06:26:31 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on October 09, 2008, 03:06:50 PM
Excellent posts and comments Lone Shark but you have me slightly wrong I think. I'm certainly not a major FF man and won't be voting that way in the near future. My comments were related to the piece I was after reading. Can you explain to me the major differences in economic philosophy between FG and FF? I don't think there are many/any. Its not the same things as "who would be the better government". Higgins was pointing out that all the parties in the Dáil have the same basic beliefs in "the market". If FG/Lab were in government for the last 10-15 year things would be more or less the same right now - would they not? They claimed that themselves around election time.

You are absolutely spot on about a lot of things but one really close to my heart is this - people not really wanting no corruption. Most do just want the inside track and fail to see the hypocrisy of complaining when things go against them.

To be honest, claims around election time from any side, government or opposition, are awful nonsense and I don't think any sane voter takes them seriously. The problem is that sane voters tend to be outnumbered by those who are in theory thinking of their pockets, but who just don't see the bigger picture.

But I take your point that you were just echoing Joe Higgins' points, so fair enough. I think I remember you and me having a debate along similar lines before which might have sparked it is all. Apologies for the misrepresentation by myself.


BB, I'm young enough to still have traces of idealism within me, but yet old enough to know that idealism of any kind is the one thing that will absolutely torpedo any chances of getting elected that one may have. I'd love to do it as a social experiment though. Not even for the purposes of getting elected - I know that would never happen. But running for election against Cowen and getting 2,000 first preferences that in turn transferred back to him would be a huge thing. That would send the message - "here's a few thousand traditional FF voters who want to send the message that the corruption has to stop". FF will only listen to what the ballot box tells them. Lately the message has been loud and clear - corruption and malpractice is a non issue for the Irish voter.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on October 09, 2008, 06:28:10 PM
Quote(1) Banks should be told that there are no staff bonuses at any level and no dividends to be paid for as long as this guarantee is in place.
(2) The premium should be fair and economic - at least of the order of 1%, or 4bn per annum. If they don't like it, then go their own way. And none of this crap about how it'll be paid "if the guarantee is called on" - what the feck is that? I'd love to insure my car on those terms. I'll just tell Royal and Sun Alliance that I'll send in a premium the minute that I have an accident. No bother at all.
(3) Recapitalisation is vital. More deposits are all very well, but the issue is potential insolvency. Banks are supposed to be lending no more than 12 times their tier one capital. Ours are now up to around 40. All external subsidiaries and holdings to be sold off, and a compulsory rights issue of shares, followed by going the market and issuing enough shares to get back to 12:1.
(4) Fire both the Financial regulator and the head of the Central Bank. Hearing Patrick Neary on prime time last week was harrowing, and he's still in denial. Get him the feck out, and replace them with the most hard ass, contrary, stickler for detail we can find in the country. If banking licences have to be threatened, then do so.
(5) All auditors who went through the books and were satisfied to sign off on performing loans, to be told that they had an option of taking another look. If this was in fact their final answer, that the state thanks them for their time but reminds them that they will do their best to fully punish any auditor who's work is subsequently proven to be sub par, as well as suing them and their company for negligence and related damages - potentially quite high in this case.
(6) The state to sit on the board of all banks covered by the guarantee. (And not to just send a yes man - this person should be able to devote real and meaningful time to this task, not just another job for the boys where somebody gets €100k for attending four meetings a year and nodding.
(7) Above all, a few public hangings of those who are showing nothing but blatant disrespect to the system, to the nation and to all who sail in her. The likes of the two lads who bought the Anglo shares the day that they bailout was agreed - I know they're going to end up taking a bath on them, but that's not the point. A fricking 18 year old would know that it was inappropriate, and that disclosure meant that they were absolutely guaranteed to be found out - they didn't care, they just did it anyway. If they are that brazen when they know they'll be found out, imagine what they'd do when they might get away with it? Imagine the corruption that goes on in the background?

Lone Shark as always you can write a post that articulates your (and lots of others) thoughts succinctly. As well as having the affect of explaining a logical line of thinking on a hopelessy complex situation it also identifies among our posters the most natural human reaction to a crisis, panic.

Zapatista wants a 10 year dictatorship while Billy would elect you based on your post. I'm not having a go at the lads but that is exactly what is happening in the market. Anything that looks good is the next big thing, until of course it isn't, and then everyone who jumped on that bandwagon is desperate to find the next true bandwagon. Even perfectly good bandwagons flounder in the stampede.

Just a few comments and I apologise for my lack of education in all things finance.

1) No problem with this.
2) Setting a premium is fair enough however banks always pass this on to the customer. That can't be allowed to happen in this case when it is that same customer who has saved the bank. The premuim must come from current or future profits.
3) Current Leveraging of the banks. That is the current crisis after the credit crunch and the liquidity shortage. Just listened to All-Ireland bandwagon jumping champion, Senator Shane Ross on the radio, saying we can never pay up on the guarantee because our national debt is €43Billion so how could we borrow €400Billion? The guarantee should be measured as a function of GDP and hypothetically if we did borrow to pay out on the guarantee we still wouldn't be leveraged as badly as some of the banks are now. That is how big a mess they are in.  If your proposals are workable in such a depressed market then I'd go for them, but I'm not sure.
4) Agree totally. I suggest Mr. Cathal Giomard. He is currently the Aviation regulator. Michael O'Leary called him a w**ker (http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/taking-the-flight-fight-to-ryanair-1232610.html) on RTE and given the extraordinary pressure, in the media, in the courts or by proxy using certain politicians, O'Leary puts on anyone who gets in his way the fact that this man hasn't flinched tells me he is the man.
5) I'd love to see this, but this is Ireland of the zero accountability.
6) Agreed but in addition the State should have some one sit on the Risk assessment committee (board or whatever) of each also.
7) This refers to a point you regularly raise here, that the Irish Stock Exchange and associated industry is a society of nods and winks. I have very limited experience of this world but let's just say it was an eye opener and I fully agree with you.

BTW one last point, and I am guilty of this also especially with regard to my hatred of the neo-Cons, but I feel that political point scoring at this time during the financial tsunami is pathetic. The blame game can come afterwards once we are in ecovery. For that reason I am disgusted with Labour's performance last week.  
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Lone Shark on October 09, 2008, 06:40:48 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 09, 2008, 06:28:10 PM
Quote(1) Banks should be told that there are no staff bonuses at any level and no dividends to be paid for as long as this guarantee is in place.
(2) The premium should be fair and economic - at least of the order of 1%, or 4bn per annum. If they don't like it, then go their own way. And none of this crap about how it'll be paid "if the guarantee is called on" - what the feck is that? I'd love to insure my car on those terms. I'll just tell Royal and Sun Alliance that I'll send in a premium the minute that I have an accident. No bother at all.
(3) Recapitalisation is vital. More deposits are all very well, but the issue is potential insolvency. Banks are supposed to be lending no more than 12 times their tier one capital. Ours are now up to around 40. All external subsidiaries and holdings to be sold off, and a compulsory rights issue of shares, followed by going the market and issuing enough shares to get back to 12:1.
(4) Fire both the Financial regulator and the head of the Central Bank. Hearing Patrick Neary on prime time last week was harrowing, and he's still in denial. Get him the feck out, and replace them with the most hard ass, contrary, stickler for detail we can find in the country. If banking licences have to be threatened, then do so.
(5) All auditors who went through the books and were satisfied to sign off on performing loans, to be told that they had an option of taking another look. If this was in fact their final answer, that the state thanks them for their time but reminds them that they will do their best to fully punish any auditor who's work is subsequently proven to be sub par, as well as suing them and their company for negligence and related damages - potentially quite high in this case.
(6) The state to sit on the board of all banks covered by the guarantee. (And not to just send a yes man - this person should be able to devote real and meaningful time to this task, not just another job for the boys where somebody gets €100k for attending four meetings a year and nodding.
(7) Above all, a few public hangings of those who are showing nothing but blatant disrespect to the system, to the nation and to all who sail in her. The likes of the two lads who bought the Anglo shares the day that they bailout was agreed - I know they're going to end up taking a bath on them, but that's not the point. A fricking 18 year old would know that it was inappropriate, and that disclosure meant that they were absolutely guaranteed to be found out - they didn't care, they just did it anyway. If they are that brazen when they know they'll be found out, imagine what they'd do when they might get away with it? Imagine the corruption that goes on in the background?

Lone Shark as always you can write a post that articulates your (and lots of others) thoughts succinctly. As well as having the affect of explaining a logical line of thinking on a hopelessy complex situation it also identifies among our posters the most natural human reaction to a crisis, panic.

Zapatista wants a 10 year dictatorship while Billy would elect you based on your post. I'm not having a go at the lads but that is exactly what is happening in the market. Anything that looks good is the next big thing, until of course it isn't, and then everyone who jumped on that bandwagon is desperate to find the next true bandwagon. Even perfectly good bandwagons flounder in the stampede.

Just a few comments and I apologise for my lack of education in all things finance.

1) No problem with this.
2) Setting a premium is fair enough however banks always pass this on to the customer. That can't be allowed to happen in this case when it is that same customer who has saved the bank. The premuim must come from current or future profits.
3) Current Leveraging of the banks. That is the current crisis after the credit crunch and the liquidity shortage. Just listened to All-Ireland bandwagon jumping champion, Senator Shane Ross on the radio, saying we can never pay up on the guarantee because our national debt is €43Billion so how could we borrow €400Billion? The guarantee should be measured as a function of GDP and hypothetically if we did borrow to pay out on the guarantee we still wouldn't be leveraged as badly as some of the banks are now. That is how big a mess they are in.  If your proposals are workable in such a depressed market then I'd go for them, but I'm not sure.
4) Agree totally. I suggest Mr. Cathal Giomard. He is currently the Aviation regulator. Michael O'Leary called him a w**ker (http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/taking-the-flight-fight-to-ryanair-1232610.html) on RTE and given the extraordinary pressure, in the media, in the courts or by proxy using certain politicians, O'Leary puts on anyone who gets in his way the fact that this man hasn't flinched tells me he is the man.
5) I'd love to see this, but this is Ireland of the zero accountability.
6) Agreed but in addition the State should have some one sit on the Risk assessment committee (board or whatever) of each also.
7) This refers to a point you regularly raise here, that the Irish Stock Exchange and associated industry is a society of nods and winks. I have very limited experience of this world but let's just say it was an eye opener and I fully agree with you.

BTW one last point, and I am guilty of this also especially with regard to my hatred of the neo-Cons, but I feel that political point scoring at this time during the financial tsunami is pathetic. The blame game can come afterwards once we are in ecovery. For that reason I am disgusted with Labour's performance last week.  


To be honest I'm not for a minute suggesting that the government should follow my suggestions to the letter. All I'm saying is that here are a list of things that I would have liked to see to prove that this wasn't just a no strings attached gift to the banks. If I saw even two or three of them I'd be happy. Instead what I see is the country writing a promise that we can't possibly hope to honour, and no sign of the system that got us into this mess in the first place being changed at all. Even if there were other signs that weren't on my list, then fine - but there are none whatsoever.

As for the points you dispute above, just for rebuttal:

(2) In a properly run market, what should be stopping the banks from passing on these things to the customer is competition - the threat that if you take the pee with charges, I'll up sticks and go to another bank. With genuine alternatives like Rabo in the marketplace, this should be the stimulus to keep banks honest. However it is up to the regulator to (i) make sure there is no sneaky stuff - that customers know what they will be paying for BEFORE they pay it, and (ii) that there is an easy way to access a full list of the different bank's charges for different things for comparative purposes. That would do fine.
(3) My proposals are wokable, but only in the sense that the existing stock would take a hammering. However the shareholders are ultimately accountable for the direction of the banks and the head honchos every year, and they took an investment that went wrong. It's not nice, but they should be wiped out before the customer or the taxpayer has to pay a red cent. Now a lot of Irish pensions are heavily vested in the banks and that's another cosy cartel that should be sorted out, but that's another issue again.
4&6) Couldn't agree more on both counts. I should have thought of the risk assessment board aspect myself to be honest.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Zapatista on October 09, 2008, 07:02:03 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 09, 2008, 06:28:10 PM

Zapatista wants a 10 year dictatorship while Billy would elect you based on your post.

I did say I wanted Declan to be that dictator so I obviously have it well thought through but, if Billy wants Lone Shark, I might throw my weight behind him.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Zapatista on October 09, 2008, 07:26:52 PM
Is perjury a crime?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Main Street on October 09, 2008, 08:18:35 PM
Olympics Crunched (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/sport/olympics/article4912771.ece)

'Taxpayers may have to fund the full cost of the £1billion Olympic village as the credit crunch scares off private investors for the 2012 Games, Olympic chiefs have admitted.'

I don't know why, maybe my humour is getting blacker than black, but I smiled when I read that.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: pintsofguinness on October 09, 2008, 10:07:05 PM
What the f**k?! Gordon Brown up on a high horse on ITV news to tut and shake his head at Iceland - using terror laws to freeze Iceland assets in the UK, did I hear that right? Now they're taking legal action to get their money back?! Aye Gordon, that'll work  ::)
He makes my blood boil  >:(
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Pangurban on October 09, 2008, 10:17:20 PM
Go for it Lone Shark, you are talking more sense than any of the politicos we have at present, North or South. Also given that the laxity and total lack of oversight by these same politicos contributed to the present mess, its frightening to have too rely on them too find a way out. One thing is sure, when all is done and dusted, little will have changed, the Bankers will be financially secure while the ordinary Joe Soap will continue the struggle to keep a Roof over his head.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Donagh on October 10, 2008, 12:10:33 AM
Just noticed that the Dow Jones closed down over 7% today and the Iseq failed to make any headway at all to make up for the crash earlier in the week. The Iseq is fooked tomorrow. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on October 10, 2008, 12:44:46 AM
Oz markets dropped 5% in the first 20 mins of opening, japan hasn't opened yet, but tomorrow is looking catastrophic - BOI down badly today too - will they be first to call on guarantee?  Will it be tomorrow, if so, will anybody lend to them anyway, maybe we'll have the first nationalisation - at least the name won't have to be changed!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: stephenite on October 10, 2008, 01:03:00 AM
Aussie Market in free-fall - hopefully it can stage some sort of recovery over the day but I'd be surprised. Aussie dollar down EUR.49
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Mentalman on October 10, 2008, 01:58:49 AM
BOI seemed to be one of the banks touted has having loaned money prudently - but I suppose that's all relative.

Interesting piece on Primetime with McWilliams and a contributor from Sweden. Apparently in '92 their banks went through a very similar property related bust. In that instance the Swedish government offered a guarantee similar to Ireland's. However banks had to very publicy apply to take part in the scheme. Once they did the government sent in it's own people, sacked the boards and upper management, and took large equity stakes. Then they used a range of measures, such as effectively splitting banks in two, one bank holding all the bad debt, and seeking mergers for the other section of the bank. Then when the recovery arrived they re-privitised the banks at a tidy profit for the tax payer. They also found that this carrot and stick approach meant the majority of institutions found commercial rather than state money in order to recapitalise. Of course the big difference being the rest of the world wasn't going through a similar bust at the same time - and, as more than alluded to by Shark, they have a more civic and responsible society - in my own personal experience.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: give her dixie on October 10, 2008, 02:55:50 AM
Does anyone think that Anglo Irish will hit the wall in the next week if this slump continues?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Lecale2 on October 10, 2008, 07:41:33 AM
Markets in Asia fall again overnight. Japan's NIKKI down 10%- biggest fall since Black Tuesday in 1987. Hong Kong & Korea down as well.
Surely they can't just keep falling? How far have the stock-markets fallen in tha past month?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Harold Disgracey on October 10, 2008, 08:15:15 AM
FTSE opened down over 10%, going to be a long day.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Zapatista on October 10, 2008, 08:20:31 AM
NOW, THE NEXT STEPS
FIANNA FÁIL MANIFESTO 2007

As part of Our Next Steps Forward we will:
Lower taxes
Put 4,000 extra teachers in place
Hire 2,000 extra Gardaí
Open Local Injury Clinics around the country
Increase the State Pension to 3300 per week
Invest for the future by rolling out the National Development Plan

http://www.fiannafail.ie/downloads/Manifesto.pdf
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: bcarrier on October 10, 2008, 08:49:09 AM
Its another capitulation day...
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 10, 2008, 08:50:49 AM
Groundhog day
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Billys Boots on October 10, 2008, 10:02:05 AM
Quote from: Billys Boots on October 08, 2008, 11:06:16 AM
I've been getting a letter inviting me to draw down a pre-approved loan up to the value to €15,000, every month (for at least the last year) from MBNA.  My missus also gets one (almost simultaneously each month) from GE Woodchester for a pre-approved loan up to the value of €10,000.  They haven't stopped coming this month. 

Folks, in a further development on this one, MBNA rang me at home last night at 8.30 pm asking me to consider taking a loan from them.  F*ckin Nora.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on October 10, 2008, 10:25:33 AM
Quote from: Billys Boots on October 10, 2008, 10:02:05 AM
Quote from: Billys Boots on October 08, 2008, 11:06:16 AM
I've been getting a letter inviting me to draw down a pre-approved loan up to the value to €15,000, every month (for at least the last year) from MBNA.  My missus also gets one (almost simultaneously each month) from GE Woodchester for a pre-approved loan up to the value of €10,000.  They haven't stopped coming this month. 

Folks, in a further development on this one, MBNA rang me at home last night at 8.30 pm asking me to consider taking a loan from them.  F*ckin Nora.
take it, buy gold and then by the time you have to repay it inflation will have wiped out the value of the loan and Billy will be sitting pretty - basically what the US has been doing for years
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: treborstemme on October 10, 2008, 10:48:25 AM
IMO gold is quite expensive at the minute.  When this whole mess gets sorted and it will get sorted, gold will plummit several hundred dollars in a short period of time.  Then I hope to invest for the long term in gold.  Im just going to listen to the experts and hold out.  I'm selling nothing and continue to buy!

NB.  I am by no means an expert so take everything I say witth a pinch of salt.  Always seek professional financial advise!!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Main Street on October 10, 2008, 11:12:33 AM
Quote from: Bogball XV on October 10, 2008, 10:25:33 AM
Quote from: Billys Boots on October 10, 2008, 10:02:05 AM
Quote from: Billys Boots on October 08, 2008, 11:06:16 AM
I've been getting a letter inviting me to draw down a pre-approved loan up to the value to €15,000, every month (for at least the last year) from MBNA.  My missus also gets one (almost simultaneously each month) from GE Woodchester for a pre-approved loan up to the value of €10,000.  They haven't stopped coming this month. 

Folks, in a further development on this one, MBNA rang me at home last night at 8.30 pm asking me to consider taking a loan from them.  F*ckin Nora.
take it, buy gold and then by the time you have to repay it inflation will have wiped out the value of the loan and Billy will be sitting pretty - basically what the US has been doing for years
Is that type of loan not inflation linked?


Quote from: treborstemme on October 10, 2008, 10:48:25 AM
IMO gold is quite expensive at the minute.  When this whole mess gets sorted and it will get sorted, gold will plummit several hundred dollars in a short period of time.  Then I hope to invest for the long term in gold.  Im just going to listen to the experts and hold out.  I'm selling nothing and continue to buy!

NB.  I am by no means an expert so take everything I say witth a pinch of salt.  Always seek professional financial advise!!!

Based on past gold prices in similar times,  Gold should double in price up to  $2k per oz

That is a minimum estimation imo because this crisis is all pervading and worse than anything that has happened  since 1929.





Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on October 10, 2008, 11:17:30 AM
Quote from: Main Street on October 10, 2008, 11:12:33 AM
Quote from: Bogball XV on October 10, 2008, 10:25:33 AM
Quote from: Billys Boots on October 10, 2008, 10:02:05 AM
Quote from: Billys Boots on October 08, 2008, 11:06:16 AM
I've been getting a letter inviting me to draw down a pre-approved loan up to the value to €15,000, every month (for at least the last year) from MBNA.  My missus also gets one (almost simultaneously each month) from GE Woodchester for a pre-approved loan up to the value of €10,000.  They haven't stopped coming this month. 

Folks, in a further development on this one, MBNA rang me at home last night at 8.30 pm asking me to consider taking a loan from them.  F*ckin Nora.
take it, buy gold and then by the time you have to repay it inflation will have wiped out the value of the loan and Billy will be sitting pretty - basically what the US has been doing for years
Is that type of loan not inflation linked?

I wouldn't have thought so, especially those introductory loans, you'll have to pay back the amount borrowed plus probably a fxed rate of interest (if it's not fixed then they could manipulate what you repay that way).  Anyway, the suggestion was made in jest, but....

Apparently deflation is what we have to worry about, although with all that money being pumped into the systems worldwide, I reckon inflation could be a problem too.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 10, 2008, 11:39:10 AM
Some expert said this week that we had reached the bottom - it seems now there is no bottom !
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 10, 2008, 11:44:49 AM
How much further down can the markets go?

Spotting when markets have reached the bottom is a tricky and risky process.

Many traders believe in the idea of capitulation, which broadly means a market surrender.

This is when investors are prepared to get out of the market at any price because they have given up all hope of making money from their shares.

It is often marked by panic-selling and very high volumes of transactions.

The idea is that after capitulation you reach a point at which the last investor who is desperate to get out of shares and move into supposedly less risky assets has sold out.

Once there is a widespread belief that the bottom has been reached, bargain-hunters pile in and the market recovers.

Have we reached the bottom of the market then?

It is really difficult to say.

Some people think we're nearly there.

"We have got to the capitulation stage where people are taking the combination of the perfect storm of a banking system in crisis and a global economy that is slowing quite dramatically," said Justin Urquhart-Stewart at Seven Investment Management.

The trouble is, some people reckoned we'd reached that point earlier this week.

Some declared the market was at the bottom last week.

There were those who declared capitulation had been reached on 15 September when the Dow fell 504 points in a day.

Capitulation is easy to spot in retrospect but the people who recognise it accurately at the time get very rich.

So once we reach the bottom there will be a total recovery on the FTSE then?

Probably not. The falls are not just about the perilous state of the banking system, although there are plenty of banks in the FTSE 100 index and they have been dragging it down.

The falls also reflect the view that many of the world's biggest economies are going into recession.

The oil price has fallen below $80 a barrel because it is thought that as economies slow there will be less oil used and the same argument goes for copper or coal.

That means that there is likely to be less demand for the products of the big global commodities companies that dominate the index.



Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Billys Boots on October 10, 2008, 12:11:33 PM
QuoteIs that type of loan not inflation linked?

MBNA are a credit card bank, I assumed the interest 'rate' they would be offering would be ca. 22.4% after my introductory 3-6 months at '0%'!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on October 10, 2008, 12:19:58 PM
Quote from: orangeman on October 10, 2008, 11:44:49 AM
How much further down can the markets go?

Spotting when markets have reached the bottom is a tricky and risky process.

Many traders believe in the idea of capitulation, which broadly means a market surrender.

This is when investors are prepared to get out of the market at any price because they have given up all hope of making money from their shares.

It is often marked by panic-selling and very high volumes of transactions.

The idea is that after capitulation you reach a point at which the last investor who is desperate to get out of shares and move into supposedly less risky assets has sold out.

Once there is a widespread belief that the bottom has been reached, bargain-hunters pile in and the market recovers.

Have we reached the bottom of the market then?

It is really difficult to say.

Some people think we're nearly there.

"We have got to the capitulation stage where people are taking the combination of the perfect storm of a banking system in crisis and a global economy that is slowing quite dramatically," said Justin Urquhart-Stewart at Seven Investment Management.

The trouble is, some people reckoned we'd reached that point earlier this week.

Some declared the market was at the bottom last week.

There were those who declared capitulation had been reached on 15 September when the Dow fell 504 points in a day.

Capitulation is easy to spot in retrospect but the people who recognise it accurately at the time get very rich.

So once we reach the bottom there will be a total recovery on the FTSE then?

Probably not. The falls are not just about the perilous state of the banking system, although there are plenty of banks in the FTSE 100 index and they have been dragging it down.

The falls also reflect the view that many of the world's biggest economies are going into recession.

The oil price has fallen below $80 a barrel because it is thought that as economies slow there will be less oil used and the same argument goes for copper or coal.

That means that there is likely to be less demand for the products of the big global commodities companies that dominate the index.





Purely with respect to investing a typical bear market is volatile, full of bounces followed by sharp falls and false dawns. (I accept we have never seen anything quite as volatile as this.)

A bull market, if we ever see one again, is typically steady growth. Not the 500 point rises in a day that we see at the moment.

If you are thinking of getting in I'd wait a while. This market is for experts and lunatics.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 10, 2008, 12:47:11 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 10, 2008, 12:19:58 PM
Quote from: orangeman on October 10, 2008, 11:44:49 AM
How much further down can the markets go?

Spotting when markets have reached the bottom is a tricky and risky process.

Many traders believe in the idea of capitulation, which broadly means a market surrender.

This is when investors are prepared to get out of the market at any price because they have given up all hope of making money from their shares.

It is often marked by panic-selling and very high volumes of transactions.

The idea is that after capitulation you reach a point at which the last investor who is desperate to get out of shares and move into supposedly less risky assets has sold out.

Once there is a widespread belief that the bottom has been reached, bargain-hunters pile in and the market recovers.

Have we reached the bottom of the market then?

It is really difficult to say.

Some people think we're nearly there.

"We have got to the capitulation stage where people are taking the combination of the perfect storm of a banking system in crisis and a global economy that is slowing quite dramatically," said Justin Urquhart-Stewart at Seven Investment Management.

The trouble is, some people reckoned we'd reached that point earlier this week.

Some declared the market was at the bottom last week.

There were those who declared capitulation had been reached on 15 September when the Dow fell 504 points in a day.

Capitulation is easy to spot in retrospect but the people who recognise it accurately at the time get very rich.

So once we reach the bottom there will be a total recovery on the FTSE then?

Probably not. The falls are not just about the perilous state of the banking system, although there are plenty of banks in the FTSE 100 index and they have been dragging it down.

The falls also reflect the view that many of the world's biggest economies are going into recession.

The oil price has fallen below $80 a barrel because it is thought that as economies slow there will be less oil used and the same argument goes for copper or coal.

That means that there is likely to be less demand for the products of the big global commodities companies that dominate the index.





Purely with respect to investing a typical bear market is volatile, full of bounces followed by sharp falls and false dawns. (I accept we have never seen anything quite as volatile as this.)

A bull market, if we ever see one again, is typically steady growth. Not the 500 point rises in a day that we see at the moment.

If you are thinking of getting in I'd wait a while. This market is for experts and lunatics.


Accepted - but there's bound to be huge growth over the next copule of years after the bottom has been reached ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on October 10, 2008, 12:54:26 PM
Quote from: orangeman on October 10, 2008, 11:39:10 AM
Some expert said this week that we had reached the bottom - it seems now there is no bottom !

"The bottom is the new top."

The US markets, which open shortly, better not fall or else it could all over.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 10, 2008, 01:19:54 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 10, 2008, 12:54:26 PM
Quote from: orangeman on October 10, 2008, 11:39:10 AM
Some expert said this week that we had reached the bottom - it seems now there is no bottom !

"The bottom is the new top."

The US markets, which open shortly, better not fall or else it could all over.


Dwon 8% at this stage - only open a wee while - long time to 5 o'clock US time !
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: give her dixie on October 10, 2008, 05:54:22 PM
With the FTSE down 9% today, and the Dow in bother, Monday will be an interesting day on the Stock Exchanges around the world.
No doubt there will be some more promises by Governments over the weekend.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on October 10, 2008, 06:56:42 PM
Quote from: give her dixie on October 10, 2008, 05:54:22 PM
With the FTSE down 9% today, and the Dow in bother, Monday will be an interesting day on the Stock Exchanges around the world.
No doubt there will be some more promises by Governments over the weekend.


The weekends are becoming scarier than the trading days. Banks tend to be nationalised at the weekend to prevent them failing during the week.

Its starting to affect industries now. GM, Ford May Face Bankruptcy on Slowdown, S&P Says (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=aBpHe3qULTD0&refer=canada)

I'd hate to think what the last 3 weeks has done to our property market.

All together now....."Always look on the bright side of life..........do do.......do do......do do do do do do....."
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: give her dixie on October 12, 2008, 12:51:59 PM
Looks like the RBS and HBOS will be applying for part of the £50 billion Governmenmt package in the morning.
No doubt another rocky day ahead on the stock exchange...............
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on October 12, 2008, 02:48:53 PM
Depending on which paper you read people earning over €50,000 will have a the PRSI cap removed (extra 4% tax) plus a 2% income tax increase on the health levy (you would think they would be too mortified to even mention that they tax us for health as a stand alone) and a halving of the tax relief on pensions which sounds alright except it means that they will have to double their contributions to get the same, now decimated pension.

That, if it happens, represents up a 6% tax rise and removes the pension they thought they had. That sort of action could be the final nail in the half buried coffin that is our property market.

Now would a reasonable place to start be to leave PRSI as it is but to have civil servants pay it as well? But then they write the budget don't they?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Hound on October 12, 2008, 06:46:35 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 12, 2008, 02:48:53 PM
Depending on which paper you read people earning over €50,000 will have a the PRSI cap removed (extra 4% tax) plus a 2% income tax increase on the health levy (you would think they would be too mortified to even mention that they tax us for health as a stand alone) and a halving of the tax relief on pensions which sounds alright except it means that they will have to double their contributions to get the same, now decimated pension.

That, if it happens, represents up a 6% tax rise and removes the pension they thought they had. That sort of action could be the final nail in the half buried coffin that is our property market.

Now would a reasonable place to start be to leave PRSI as it is but to have civil servants pay it as well? But then they write the budget don't they?
6% tax rise would be too much IMO. A lot of mid to high earners might start to look at going abroad, which would hit the economy more. Of course if the whole world is putting up taxes....

I had heard a 1% increase (a new levy of some sort) and an extension of the PRSI ceiling (rather than removing).

Fuel, tobacco and drink all to get hit hard on duties.

Politicians to get a pay cut, somewhere between 5% and 10%.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on October 12, 2008, 07:19:14 PM
Quote from: Hound on October 12, 2008, 06:46:35 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 12, 2008, 02:48:53 PM
Depending on which paper you read people earning over €50,000 will have a the PRSI cap removed (extra 4% tax) plus a 2% income tax increase on the health levy (you would think they would be too mortified to even mention that they tax us for health as a stand alone) and a halving of the tax relief on pensions which sounds alright except it means that they will have to double their contributions to get the same, now decimated pension.

That, if it happens, represents up a 6% tax rise and removes the pension they thought they had. That sort of action could be the final nail in the half buried coffin that is our property market.

Now would a reasonable place to start be to leave PRSI as it is but to have civil servants pay it as well? But then they write the budget don't they?
6% tax rise would be too much IMO. A lot of mid to high earners might start to look at going abroad, which would hit the economy more. Of course if the whole world is putting up taxes....

I had heard a 1% increase (a new levy of some sort) and an extension of the PRSI ceiling (rather than removing).

Fuel, tobacco and drink all to get hit hard on duties.

Politicians to get a pay cut, somewhere between 5% and 10%.

I suppose it is not unusual to hear of terrible predictions pre-budget so that when the real thing comes it doesn't seem to bad.

I hope so.  :-\
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Rossfan on October 12, 2008, 07:19:52 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 12, 2008, 02:48:53 PM
the half buried coffin that is our property market.

Now would a reasonable place to start be to leave PRSI as it is but to have civil servants pay it ...
Everybody employed in the public sector since 1995 pay full rate PRSI and get the entitlements also.

As for the property market --  that same "market" is the cause of all the troubles worldwide and especially in Ireland.
Most independent analysts reckon house prices will fall to 50% or even less of the asking prices at the end of 2006.
After all to sell houses in normal societies the price has to bear some realistic relation to average incomes- unlike the fantasy world (fuelled by Govt,Lenders,Builders and Estate Agents) we had here since the mid Nineties.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on October 12, 2008, 07:52:47 PM
QuoteEverybody employed in the public sector since 1995 pay full rate PRSI and get the entitlements also.

That is incorrect.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Rossfan on October 12, 2008, 08:28:32 PM
It is not incorrect. It mightnt suit your agenda but  from the Dept of Social etc etc website

PRSI Contribution Classes


In general, PRSI contribution classes are decided by the nature of a persons employment and the amount of the employee's gross reckonable earnings in any week. Most workers pay PRSI contributions at Class A and are covered for all social welfare benefits and pensions. However, people who earn less than €38 per week (from ALL employments) are covered for Occupational Injuries Benefits only - Class J. Some workers in the public sector do not have cover for all benefits and pensions and they pay a modified PRSI contribution - Class B, C, D or H.








Civil and Public Sector Employments
PRSI Class B
People within CLASS B:

Permanent and pensionable Civil Servants, Registered Doctors and Dentists employed in the Civil Service and Gardaí, recruited prior to 6 April, 1995.


PRSI Class C
People within CLASS C:

Commissioned Army Officers and members of the Army Nursing Service, 1recruited prior to 6 April, 1995.



PRSI Class D
People within CLASS D:

Permanent and pensionable employees in the public service other than those mentioned in Classes B and C, recruited prior to 6 April, 1995.



Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on October 12, 2008, 08:56:45 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on October 12, 2008, 08:28:32 PM
It is not incorrect. It mightnt suit your agenda but  from the Dept of Social etc etc website

PRSI Contribution Classes


In general, PRSI contribution classes are decided by the nature of a persons employment and the amount of the employee's gross reckonable earnings in any week. Most workers pay PRSI contributions at Class A and are covered for all social welfare benefits and pensions. However, people who earn less than €38 per week (from ALL employments) are covered for Occupational Injuries Benefits only - Class J. Some workers in the public sector do not have cover for all benefits and pensions and they pay a modified PRSI contribution - Class B, C, D or H.








Civil and Public Sector Employments
PRSI Class B
People within CLASS B:

Permanent and pensionable Civil Servants, Registered Doctors and Dentists employed in the Civil Service and Gardaí, recruited prior to 6 April, 1995.


PRSI Class C
People within CLASS C:

Commissioned Army Officers and members of the Army Nursing Service, 1recruited prior to 6 April, 1995.



PRSI Class D
People within CLASS D:

Permanent and pensionable employees in the public service other than those mentioned in Classes B and C, recruited prior to 6 April, 1995.





I dont have any agenda.

I read your post as saying that the Public service had paid PRSI since 1995. I knew that to be incorrect because I had pints with 2 who dont pay PRSI only a few days ago.

What I now see is that those recruited since 1995 pay PRSI fully. Being 'employed' can be interpreted 2 ways:
a) being recruited into a job
or
b) in active employment.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 13, 2008, 09:34:39 AM
European and Asian markets have rallied in response to efforts by world leaders to end the recent financial turmoil.

London's FTSE 100, France's Cac 40 and Germany's Dax index all jumped more than 6%, tracking earlier gains on Asian markets.

Major central banks said they would offer financial institutions an unlimited amount of short-term dollar loans to help stem the crisis.

EU leaders said on Sunday no big bank would be be allowed to fail.

UK shares got a boost after the government said it would inject up to £37bn of taxpayer cash into Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), Lloyds TSB and HBOS.

The FTSE 100 index was up 268.56 points, or 6.83%, at 4,200.62 points.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: PadraicHenryPearse on October 13, 2008, 09:49:54 AM
I bought Irish bank share last week - on friday i was down .50 a share, currently up .41 a share.

As i am in Australia i got my father to get them for me as he was buying himself, If he had followed my instructions i would be up .75 a share but he has bought more shares then i gave him money for so i cannot complain. On the extra amount he bought he gets 25% of profit if there is any and his initial invesment back and i take all the losses if we sell when the share pricve is down (not going to happen as i won't sell if they are down). 2 or 3 good days and i will probably sell.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Hardy on October 13, 2008, 11:28:01 AM
First thing I'd do, come the revolution, is lock up all the economists, financial advisers and other hangers on. In fact, why wait for the revolution? Lock them up now, as part of the price of the bail-out.

It never fails to boggle my mind that people accept advice from these chancers in the mad belief that they can predict the future. What's even more amazing is that there's no comeback on these people for getting it wrong and costing people millions in aggregate. This despite the fact that they're licensed by the state. You might as well give a license to a palm reader or a witch doctor to predict share prices by looking at chickens' entrails. And then say "ah that's grand, sure", when they get it completely wrong.

I had a call in April from our little company's pension fund manager. We had a meeting and he "strongly advised" us to transfer the whole lot into a fund based on international financial stocks. "The credit crunch is over", he says. "The recovery has started. The losses have all been priced in. Financial stocks are set to soar. The markets typically anticipate these recoveries by about one to two quarters. Get in now or you'll miss the biggest opportunity since the thirties".

Now we're no financial wizards and this bozo gets paid to advise us, but thankfully we did the opposite of taking this advice. What his advice did was put us into the mode of thinking seriously about the pension fund for a day or two, whereupon we decided to put it into cash where it has remained since, missing out on about 20% losses in the original fund where it resided and unmeasurable losses if we had taken the advice.

This lad is still in a no-risk job and the pension people are still charging us a fee for "management".
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: lynchbhoy on October 13, 2008, 11:45:51 AM
Quote from: Hardy on October 13, 2008, 11:28:01 AM
First thing I'd do, come the revolution, is lock up all the economists, financial advisers and other hangers on. In fact, why wait for the revolution? Lock them up now, as part of the price of the bail-out.

It never fails to boggle my mind that people accept advice from these chancers in the mad belief that they can predict the future. What's even more amazing is that there's no comeback on these people for getting it wrong and costing people millions in aggregate. This despite the fact that they're licensed by the state. You might as well give a license to a palm reader or a witch doctor to predict share prices by looking at chickens' entrails. And then say "ah that's grand, sure", when they get it completely wrong. I had a call in April from our little company's pension fund manager. We had a meeting and he "strongly advised" us to transfer the whole lot into a fund based on international financial stocks. "The credit crunch is over", he says. "The recovery has started. The losses have all been priced in. Financial stocks are set to soar. The markets typically anticipate these recoveries by about one to two quarters. Get in now or you'll miss the biggest opportunity since the thirties".

Now we're no financial wizards and this bozo gets paid to advise us, but thankfully we did the opposite of taking this advice. What his advice did was put us into the mode of thinking seriously about the pension fund for a day or two, whereupon we decided to put it into cash where it has remained since, missing out on about 20% losses in the original fund where it resided and unmeasurable losses if we had taken the advice.

This lad is still in a no-risk job and the pension people are still charging us a fee for "management".
I hate it when I agree withyou, but that is spot on
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: nifan on October 13, 2008, 12:14:35 PM
Agreed hardy.

When I sold the house in Feb a few financial advisors i know tried to convince me Id be mad, much better to keep the house and rent it out.
Id lose a fortune and never get back on the property ladder etc.

Thank f**k i ignored them.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: magpie seanie on October 13, 2008, 12:15:40 PM
Hardy, what ye want to do is get yer man and his superiors into the room (rumour about further investments etc) and when they are there ask them what they have to say about the bogus advice that clown gave ye. And ask why ye shouldn't go to the media about it. That would be fun.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: lynchbhoy on October 13, 2008, 12:18:52 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on October 13, 2008, 12:15:40 PM
Hardy, what ye want to do is get yer man and his superiors into the room (rumour about further investments etc) and when they are there ask them what they have to say about the bogus advice that clown gave ye. And ask why ye shouldn't go to the media about it. That would be fun.
...tell him you want 10 grand or you go to the press to inform everyone that he's a fraud/fcking rubbish !
;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Hardy on October 13, 2008, 12:33:34 PM
That's a good idea lads. These boys are always "thinking outside the box". I'll tell him I'm thinking of giving him a box. He can call it a paradigm shift, going forward. I'll call it a dig in the snot.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Billys Boots on October 13, 2008, 12:41:42 PM
Excellent plan - our pension 'manager' is due in next week, I'll think with a box too, before I turn the rabble on him.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Donagh on October 13, 2008, 02:00:51 PM
Quote from: PadraicHenryPearse on October 13, 2008, 09:49:54 AM
I bought Irish bank share last week - on friday i was down .50 a share, currently up .41 a share.

As i am in Australia i got my father to get them for me as he was buying himself, If he had followed my instructions i would be up .75 a share but he has bought more shares then i gave him money for so i cannot complain. On the extra amount he bought he gets 25% of profit if there is any and his initial invesment back and i take all the losses if we sell when the share pricve is down (not going to happen as i won't sell if they are down). 2 or 3 good days and i will probably sell.

Pearse why did you go for the Irish bank stocks? From what I can see (and I'm no expert) you'd need to mad to go anywhere near them as the Irish government guarantee is worthless because they've haven't the money to bail them out. Is there something I'm missing here?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 13, 2008, 03:09:51 PM
 GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS
  News, explainers and analysis – see full coverage of the global turmoil

MARKET DATA - 15:06 UK
FTSE 100 4120.55up 188.49 4.79%
Dax 4927.36up 383.05 8.43%
Cac 40 3389.94up 213.45 6.72%
Dow Jones 8832.31up 381.12 4.51%
Nasdaq 1723.43up 73.92 4.48%
BBC Global 30 4552.61up 118.72 2.68%



All green figures today ! Keep her at it and we might ride the storm.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: passedit on October 13, 2008, 04:34:21 PM
Quote from: orangeman on October 13, 2008, 03:09:51 PM
GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS
  News, explainers and analysis – see full coverage of the global turmoil

MARKET DATA - 15:06 UK
FTSE 100 4120.55up 188.49 4.79%
Dax 4927.36up 383.05 8.43%
Cac 40 3389.94up 213.45 6.72%
Dow Jones 8832.31up 381.12 4.51%
Nasdaq 1723.43up 73.92 4.48%
BBC Global 30 4552.61up 118.72 2.68%



All green figures today ! Keep her at it and we might ride the storm.



More likely to be

(http://i33.tinypic.com/w85cvq.jpg)


dead cat bounce
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: bcarrier on October 13, 2008, 06:21:11 PM
Passedit will you ever buy the house and quit the George Doom :).
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: PadraicHenryPearse on October 14, 2008, 06:12:53 AM
Donagh nothing special about the irish banks only that i have been following there share price closely since around xmas 07. i've seem IL & P and BOI go from 20 and 15 euro to 3 euro. I just felt with all the doom and gloom it couldn't get much worst especailly since the Govt. around the world started to work together and i didn't think the Irish banks would fold. At the moment i think i could be on a winner, last week i was worried i made a mistake. 3% gain yesterday is quite small compared to other markets yesterday and Japan and Australia have gone up 12% and 4% this morning. Hopefully that will follow through to Europe and i'll see another 2-5% increase. So in Summary just a gut feeling really.

PHP
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bud Wiser on October 14, 2008, 07:50:49 AM
Wait until you hear Mr. Cowan and Brian Lenihans Budget today before you stick your money in bank shares.  The first tranche of our money that has been used to bail out the banks is miniscule towards what is required in the long term, we are talking billions and expect some of the banks to go under.  If some are not nationalised you can bet every cent you have left over from buying shares in B.O.I. or A.I.B. that the government will disallow any dividends whatsoever from being paid to shareholders until the "bailout" money, or at least some of it is recouped.  Since that is unlikely to happen today or tomorrow the thought of flicking on the teletext on page 142 and expecting to see +42 in lovely blue colour on a weekly basis is far from the reality of what I think is likely to happen.  Still, God favours the brave but taxpayers who are pissed off with the government bailing out the banks would be fairly annoyed if,  instead of the banks providing payback to the government, they then started paying big dividends to fat cat shareholders, would be twice as annoyed then - not that the banks will have a choice.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 14, 2008, 09:24:33 AM
All indexes up 3/4% this morning - looks like things could be motoring again.

Any predictions for Lenihan's toughest cutbacks in 20 years ?????
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Down Gael on October 14, 2008, 10:18:38 AM
Income tax will go up and all the usual targets will get a hike. Talk of 7cents on a litre of fuel. Duty on fuel hasnt gone up in recent times.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 14, 2008, 10:26:34 AM
Quote from: Down Gael on October 14, 2008, 10:18:38 AM
Income tax will go up and all the usual targets will get a hike. Talk of 7cents on a litre of fuel. Duty on fuel hasnt gone up in recent times.


Is it not expensive enough already ??
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Down Gael on October 14, 2008, 10:38:03 AM
Fuel prices in the south are still considerably cheaper than the north. The southern gov hasnt increased duty on fuel in quite a while, so it will definitely get a hike this evening. Either way, life is about to get more expensive for anyone living in the south.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: passedit on October 14, 2008, 01:47:33 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on October 13, 2008, 06:21:11 PM
Passedit will you ever buy the house and quit the George Doom :).

Last friday i'd have gladly taken a possible 30% instant loss on a property purchase as opposed to a very likely 100% loss on my cash. Gordon has bought a little time but he's now holding the same bluffers hand as Cowen. Eventually a bank will fail, they can't bail them all out. Likewise property in NI is going nowhere but down. Tis definitely like playing poker now, so no smiley face for a while yet.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: FermGael on October 14, 2008, 02:18:34 PM
Quote from: passedit on October 14, 2008, 01:47:33 PM


Last friday i'd have gladly taken a possible 30% instant loss on a property purchase as opposed to a very likely 100% loss on my cash. Gordon has bought a little time but he's now holding the same bluffers hand as Cowen. Eventually a bank will fail, they can't bail them all out. Likewise property in NI is going nowhere but down. Tis definitely like playing poker now, so no smiley face for a while yet.

Could not agree more. Alot of Bluffing going on.
Have been keeping an eye on a house in Belfast.  The Sold sign went up last week.
When into the estate agent to enquire what price it had be sold for.  Refused to give me the information.
Asked was it in or around the asking price.  Again nothing.
All these surveys form estate agents seem to show a reduction in asking price but i wonder what the real reduction in selling price actually is?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: bcarrier on October 14, 2008, 02:51:12 PM
It was a reported condition of drawdown of Uk goverment funding that banks resume lending to home owners and small business at 2007 levels. The solution and the problem are starting to look alike. If they can get the property market to reverse its downward spiral through a combination of rate cuts and more relaxed lending then some of the so called toxic assets become a bit less toxic. Both Ireland and Uk need some quick property inflation. There will be some places including NI where property got so detached from wages that recovery will be slower but I am now hopeful that London will bounce back next year. There is no big supply overhang ...I got this from an outfit called london development research today ..

London residential construction starts have fallen over 70% between Quarter 1 and Quarter 3 2008:


§         This is good news for developers with schemes currently for sale as they are not facing additional competition from new starts

§         When sales rates pick up again supply will be greatly constrained lifting prices

§         To avoid disastrously low S106 affordable housing delivery, Government has to get the mortgage market moving again – we are all in this together


Sales positions in current schemes are better than you would imagine:


§         Schemes completed so far in 2008 are almost completely sold out; there is very little overhang of troubled stock

§         Schemes expected to complete in the six months to April 2009 are already 70% sold


So life isn't all doom and gloom. The information above is a tiny part of our latest quarterly review of new home construction, sales and pricing across London. The full research is published at www.ldronline.co.uk and is explained in one of the attached document.



Title: Whistling past the graveyard
Post by: passedit on October 15, 2008, 02:17:51 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on October 14, 2008, 02:51:12 PM
It was a reported condition of drawdown of Uk goverment funding that banks resume lending to home owners and small business at 2007 levels. The solution and the problem are starting to look alike. If they can get the property market to reverse its downward spiral through a combination of rate cuts and more relaxed lending then some of the so called toxic assets become a bit less toxic. Both Ireland and Uk need some quick property inflation. There will be some places including NI where property got so detached from wages that recovery will be slower but I am now hopeful that London will bounce back next year. There is no big supply overhang ...I got this from an outfit called london development research today ..

London residential construction starts have fallen over 70% between Quarter 1 and Quarter 3 2008:


§         This is good news for developers with schemes currently for sale as they are not facing additional competition from new starts

§         When sales rates pick up again supply will be greatly constrained lifting prices

§         To avoid disastrously low S106 affordable housing delivery, Government has to get the mortgage market moving again – we are all in this together


Sales positions in current schemes are better than you would imagine:


§         Schemes completed so far in 2008 are almost completely sold out; there is very little overhang of troubled stock

§         Schemes expected to complete in the six months to April 2009 are already 70% sold


So life isn't all doom and gloom. The information above is a tiny part of our latest quarterly review of new home construction, sales and pricing across London. The full research is published at www.ldronline.co.uk and is explained in one of the attached document.


They rowed back on this very quick, banks are looking for large deposits (up to 40% on new builds), tightening lending criteria and not passing on last weeks rate cut.

Meanwhile the cat apears to have lain down again.

QuoteUK gilts rally as stocks falter, joblessness rises

LONDON, Oct 15 (Reuters) - British gilts and interest rate futures climbed on Wednesday as equity markets tumbled amid fears the global economy may be sliding

into recession, highlighted by a rise in the UK jobless rate to an 8-year high.

By 1130 GMT, December long gilt futures were 49 ticks up at 110.05, more than double the gain on the equivalent Bund contract.

The FTSE-100 index of leading shares was trading 3.1 percent down at 4257 points.

'I think the concern is that at some point (turmoil) will really move from the financial sector to the real economy, now most economies are likely to go into recession, including the UK,' said Alessandro Tentori, bond strategist at BNP Paribas.

Official data showed Britain's unemployment rate rose more than expected to 5.7 percent in the three months to August from 5.2 percent in the previous 3-month period on the internationally-comparable ILO measure.

Markets are also eyeing U.S. retail sales and producer prices data due at 1230 GMT.

'If there's a big surprise here, there may be volatility,' said Tentori.

He added that UK debt market liquidity was still below normal but up slightly from the past two days, as investor nerves started to calm after the British government announced plans to underwrite share issuance by major high-street banks.

Short sterling contracts were down 5 ticks at 95.03 for December but up 4 ticks for March and 8 ticks for June.

Two-year gilt yields -- which move in the opposite direction to prices -- were down 5 basis points to 3.83 percent and 10-year yields were 4 basis points down at 4.71 percent.

* Dec gilt 110.05 (+0.49)

* Dec short sterling 95.03 (-0.05)

* Mar short sterling 95.94 (+0.04)

* 10-year yield 4.71 percent (-4 bps) --------------------- KEY MARKET DATA--------------------------- Long Gilt futures Gilt benchmark chain Short Stg futures Cash market quotes Deposit rates Sterling cross rates UK debt speedguide Econ. indicator polls --------------------KEY MARKET REPORTS-------------------------- Gilts Sterling Euro Debt Dollar U.S. Treasuries Debt reports -------------------- GILT STRIPS DATA -------------------------- Gilt strips data All gilt strips Gilt strips IO Gilt strips PO A list of all the strippable British gilts --------------------- FOR MORE NEWS ---------------------------- Top British news World news UK diary Press reviews New from Reuters Useful Speedguides Keywords: MARKETS BRITAIN GILTS tf.TFN-Europe_newsdesk@thomson.com ak
15  October  2008

COPYRIGHT
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: passedit on October 15, 2008, 04:10:49 PM
Dow heads south as well

(http://finance.google.com/finance/chart?cht=c&q=INDEXDJX:.DJI,INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC,INDEXSP:.INX)


http://finance.google.com/finance?q=INDEXDJX:.DJI%20INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC%20INDEXSP:.INX (http://finance.google.com/finance?q=INDEXDJX:.DJI%20INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC%20INDEXSP:.INX)


Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: bcarrier on October 15, 2008, 04:16:56 PM
Its only profit taking  :P.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 15, 2008, 05:39:08 PM
Monday's gains wiped out.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 15, 2008, 08:19:25 PM
Leading European stock markets plunged this evening on mounting fears of recession in Europe and the US. The London FTSE 100 shed over 7% to close at 4,080 points while in Paris the CAC 40 fell 6.8% to 3,381 points. The Frankfurt DAX gave up 6.5% to end at 4,862.

Dublin's ISEQ index also accelerated its losses this evening, closing 6.4% lower at 2,830 - down 193 points. Shares in the banks were mixed with Anglo Irish Bank closing 6% higher at €2.25 and AIB edging 0.3% up to end at €3.21. But shares in Bank of Ireland slumped 14% to €2.02 while Irish Life and Permanent closed at €3.84 - down almost 4%. Shares in Paddy Power were down 3.4% at €11.30 after an increase in betting tax was announced by Finance Minister Brian Lenihan yesterday.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on October 15, 2008, 09:49:41 PM
Rumours of one Irish bank being pressurised to take over another. The share prices will give a clue as which one is rumoured to be the one to take on the burden.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: PadraicHenryPearse on October 16, 2008, 02:08:17 AM
there will definately be a few mergers and will probably see a Spanish Bank make a move for one of the Irish guys aswell. My short-term Investment is over now i fear- i'm in for the long haul to see any return on my investment.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Lecale2 on October 16, 2008, 08:44:01 AM
Quotelondon development research today ..

And they wouldn't have a vested interest? Can someone explain to me why it is the Government's job to help people buy houses they can't afford?

Stock Markets tumbling again. Japan down 11% over night and London opened 5% down.

The good news is that oil is down to $73 a barrel. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: passedit on October 16, 2008, 08:47:13 AM

Global shares carry on tumbling

A young man passes an electric market board in Tokyo, 16 October
Investors fear that efforts to halt the banking crisis won't prevent recession

European shares have opened sharply lower following dramatic falls in Asia that saw Tokyo's Nikkei index fall 11%.

Global falls have largely wiped out the gains earlier in the week, as fears of recession cancelled out any optimism from the banking rescue package.

London's FTSE 100 opened 5% lower while the Cac 40 in Paris was down 6%.

On Wednesday, New York's Dow Jones index saw its worst one-day percentage fall on Wednesday since October 1987, closing almost 8% down.

Shares in Hong Kong shed 7.6%. Australian, South Korea and Indian indexes all fell by at least 4%.

The prospect of a protracted economic downturn also sent crude oil prices lower to hit a 13-month low just above $73 a barrel.

Stocks had risen earlier in the week after governments acted to aid banks, but these gains have mostly been lost.

Investors fear that efforts to stem the banking crisis will not be enough to prevent a recession.

   
FROM THE TODAY PROGRAMME

More from Today programme

Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, warned that the US economy now faced a "significant threat" from the credit crisis.

'Real economy' impact

Signs of optimism seen earlier this week when markets recovered some of the lost ground have been all but wiped out.

In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 index closed 11.4% lower, or 1,089.02 points, at 8,458.45. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index fell 7.6% to 14,785.60 points.

Australia's main share index ended down 6.7% and India's main index was down 4%.

   
Although there's a ton of cash or liquidity sloshing through the system, banks want to hoard it rather than lend it
Robert Peston, BBC business editor

Robert Peston's blog in full

"There's a certain degree of panic selling in Tokyo but the sentiment's different from last week," Takashi Ushio, head of the investment strategy division at Marusan Securities, was quoted as saying by Reuters news agency.

"Last week people were panicking over the financial system, nobody really knew what would happen. But now it's the real economy."

Yutaka Miura, senior strategist at Shinko Securities Co Ltd, said investors were particularly unnerved by a 1.2% fall in the value of US retail sales between August and September.

"It really confirmed a severe slowdown in the US economy," he told the Associated Press news agency.

BBC business editor Robert Peston said that despite recent actions by central banks to help the banking sector, banks were still not lending to each other at anything like a normal rate of interest relative to official rates.

This was worrying as it meant banks were unlikely to lend money at better rates to consumers and businesses.

No quick turnaround

Many investors are now convinced that the US economy, if not already in a recession, is moving towards one.

A Federal Reserve report showed economic activity had weakened across the country.

In a speech in New York, Mr Bernanke said the US had avoided making the mistakes that helped plunge the country into the 1930s Great Depression.

He pledged that the Fed would continue to fight the credit crisis. But he warned it would take time for the country's economic health to mend.

"The turmoil in financial markets and the funding pressures on financial firms pose a significant threat to economic growth," he said.

"The last decade has shown that bursting bubbles can be an extraordinarily dangerous and costly phenomenon for the US economy."

The leaders of the G8 major industrialised nations agreed on Wednesday to hold a summit with other states to discuss global financial reform.

In Brussels, EU leaders rallied behind a plan to aid the bloc's banking sector.
Title: Todays FTSE/hoors knickers
Post by: passedit on October 16, 2008, 08:48:59 AM

------  FTSE 100 ------ FTSE 250 ------ FTSE All Share  ------- techMARK 100


(http://finance.google.co.uk/finance/chart?cht=c&q=INDEXFTSE:.FTSE,INDEXFTSE:.FTMC,INDEXFTSE:.FTAS,INDEXFTSE:.FTT1X)
Title: Hugo has the last laugh
Post by: Donagh on October 16, 2008, 09:18:56 AM
Chavez says "Comrade Bush" turns left in crisis

CARACAS (Reuters) - Socialist Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez mocked George W. Bush as a "comrade" on Wednesday, saying the U.S. president was a hard-line leftist for his government's intervention of major private banks in the U.S. financial crisis.

Chavez, who calls capitalism an evil and ex-Cuban leader Fidel Castro his mentor, ridiculed Bush for his plan for the federal government to take equity in American banks despite the U.S. right-wing's criticism of Venezuelan nationalizations.

"Bush is to the left of me now," Chavez told an audience of international intellectuals debating the benefits of socialism. "Comrade Bush announced he will buy shares in private banks."

Chavez, who has insulted Bush in the past as a drunkard or the devil, called him clueless on Wednesday. He accused him of simply parroting the words of his aides without understanding the new policies that rely on heavy state intervention.

"I am convinced he has got no idea what's going on," said Chavez, who has nationalized swaths of the OPEC nation's economy in recent years and is in negotiations to take over a Spanish bank in Venezuela.

Chavez lauds his nationalizations for allowing the state to refocus companies' activities on helping the poor rather than creating value for their shareholders.

The Bush administration, which has promoted free-market policies throughout Latin America, resisted taking equity in banks for weeks. But, faced with a spiraling financial crisis, it reversed course this week with a $250 billion plan.

Chavez, who the United States labels an autocrat, is popular among his supporters at home for criticizing Bush and sometimes wins praise abroad for voicing anti-U.S. opinions.

Despite the ideological differences between the two governments and the diplomatic sparring that led weeks ago to the countries expelling each other's ambassador, Venezuela remains a major oil supplier to the United States.

(Reporting by Patricia Rondon; Writing by Saul Hudson; Editing by Anthony Boadle)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 16, 2008, 09:51:35 AM
Did anybody see the ITV news report from one of the big shopping malls in Ohio, USA -

It had 160 outlets / shops - all but 5 of them were closed -

There was one car in the parking "lot".


It made for some very depressing viewing -


If we think we have it bad, the USA have really got it bad.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Hardy on October 16, 2008, 10:05:59 AM
Call in Andy Reid.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: PadraicHenryPearse on October 16, 2008, 10:06:09 AM
can someone explain why "fear of a recession" are driving down share prices"? Surely this is not new News and the reason why shares have been falling for a while....
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 16, 2008, 10:33:12 AM
Quote from: PadraicHenryPearse on October 16, 2008, 10:06:09 AM
can someone explain why "fear of a recession" are driving down share prices"? Surely this is not new News and the reason why shares have been falling for a while....


People are cashing in their chips at any price !!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: bcarrier on October 16, 2008, 11:21:42 AM
You are all right. We are doomed.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 16, 2008, 11:10:34 PM
Capitulation I think it is called.
Title: The Next Big Bailout
Post by: passedit on October 22, 2008, 12:12:18 PM
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a5x0jMKZf4yc&refer=home (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a5x0jMKZf4yc&refer=home)

QuoteCDO Cuts Show $1 Trillion Corporate-Debt Bets Toxic (Update1)

By Neil Unmack, Abigail Moses and Shannon D. Harrington

Oct. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Investors are taking losses of up to 90 percent in the $1.2 trillion market for collateralized debt obligations tied to corporate credit as the failures of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Icelandic banks send shockwaves through the global financial system.

The losses among banks, insurers and money managers may spark the next round of writedowns on CDOs after $660 billion in subprime-related losses. They may force lenders to post more reserves against losses after governments worldwide announced $3 trillion in financial-industry rescue packages since last month, according to Barclays Capital.

``We'll see the same problems we've seen in subprime,'' said Alistair Milne, a professor in banking and finance at Cass Business School in London and a former U.K. Treasury economist. ``Banks will take substantial markdowns.''

The collapse of Lehman Brothers, Washington Mutual Inc. and the three banks in Iceland prompted Susquehanna Bancshares Inc., a Lititz, Pennsylvania-based lender, to lower the value of $20 million in so-called synthetic CDOs by almost 88 percent last week.

KBC Groep NV, Belgium's biggest financial-services firm, which had 377.4 billion in assets as of June 30, wrote down 1.6 billion euros ($2.1 billion) after downgrades on company- and asset-backed debt. Brussels-based KBC had 9 billion euros in CDOs as of Oct. 15, primarily linked to corporate debt, according to an investor presentation.

10 Cents

Some synthetic CDOs, tied to credit-default swaps on corporate bonds, are trading at less than 10 cents on the dollar, according to Sivan Mahadevan, a derivatives strategist at Morgan Stanley in New York.

CDOs parcel fixed-income assets such as bonds or loans and slice them into new securities of varying risk, providing higher returns than other investments of the same rating.

The synthetic variety pools credit-default swaps, which are derivatives based on bonds and loans and used to protect against or speculate on defaults. Should a borrower fail to meet debt agreements, the contracts pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent. An increase in the agreement's cost indicates a deteriorating perception of credit quality.

About $254 billion of CDOs tied to mortgages for borrowers with poor credit histories have defaulted, according to Wachovia Corp. Tracking defaults on those linked to corporate bonds will be difficult because the market is largely private, said Mahadevan.

Derivatives are contracts whose value is derived from assets including stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities, or from events such as the weather or changes in interest rates.

`Severe' Recession

Downgrades of corporate CDOs will force investors to boost capital, according to an Oct. 17 report from Barclays Capital analysts led by Puneet Sharma in London.

Buyers of deals graded AA by Standard & Poor's and Aa2 by Moody's Investors Service, the third-highest rankings, may have to increase cushions against losses to cover the full amount of the investment, up from 1.2 percent now, Sharma said. His estimate is based on the world economy entering a ``severe'' recession.

Demand for synthetic CDOs pushed the cost of default protection to record lows in 2007, driving down company borrowing expenses. Sales surged to $503 billion in 2006, from $84 billion five years earlier, according to Morgan Stanley.

High Return

Bankers loaded the securities with bonds and swaps offering the highest return for a given credit ranking, indicating additional risk. An AA rated European issue offered an average yield of 50 basis points over money-market rates when sold in 2006, according to UniCredit SpA analysts in Munich. Similarly rated corporate bonds paid 9 basis points. A basis point is 0.01 of a percentage point.

``The maths ended up driving the way CDO portfolios were put together,'' said Nigel Sillis, a fixed-income and currency analyst at Baring Asset Management Ltd. in London.

The banks that structured the securities and investors both failed to do ``fundamental credit analysis,'' said Janet Tavakoli, president of Tavakoli Structured Finance in Chicago. ``They were using correlation models, they were using spread models, but they weren't doing analysis on the underlying corporations.''

Fitch downgraded 422 classes of CDOs on Oct. 13 after seven financial companies defaulted or were bailed out since September. The company didn't disclose the total number of classes it rated.

The downgrades force payment of the credit-default swaps packaged in the debt, causing losses for investors or eroding capital.

``The same kind of shudders that went through the asset- backed CDO market will probably go through the corporate CDO market,'' said Sillis. ``We'll see a pickup in default rates.''

Lehman, WaMu

Barclays Capital estimates that 70 percent of synthetic CDOs sold swaps on Lehman. Swaps on Kaupthing Bank hf, Landsbanki Islands hf and Glitnir Banki hf were included in 376 CDOs rated by S&P. The company ranks almost 3,000.

About 1,500 also sold protection on Washington Mutual, the bankrupt holding company of the biggest U.S. bank to fail, according to S&P. More than 1,200 made bets on both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the New York-based rating company said.

The collapse of Lehman, WaMu and the Icelandic banks, as well as the U.S. government's seizure of the mortgage agencies, will have a ``substantial'' impact on corporate CDO ratings, S&P said in a report Oct. 16.

The government in Reykjavik seized Kaupthing Bank, the country's largest lender, earlier this month. Assets and liabilities from Landsbanki Islands and Glitnir Banki were transferred to state-owned entities, triggering default swaps.

`Marking Down'

Nonpayment on speculative-grade corporate bonds may rise to 7.9 percent worldwide in a year, from 2.8 percent at the end of the third quarter, as the credit crisis deepens, Moody's said Oct. 8. Those in the U.S. may rise to 7.6 percent, said S&P.

``As there are credit events, you'll have losses in portfolios and marking down of other assets,'' said Claude Brown, a partner at law firm Clifford Chance LLP in London.

Investors may sell the CDOs back to banks, which will unwind protection they wrote to hedge swap transactions, Barclays said. The chain of events will push up the price of default protection and company borrowing, according to Barclays.

Doubling Cost

Banks unwinding hedges helped double the cost since April of default insurance on the lowest-ranking equity portion of the benchmark Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index, to 75 percent upfront and 5 percent a year. That equates to $7.5 million in advance plus $500,000 annually on $10 million of debt for five years.

For European investment-grade company debt, as shown by the Markit iTraxx Europe index of credit-default swaps, the price for protecting against nonpayment may climb 55 basis points to a record 200 next year, Barclays forecasts.

Some investors are choosing to buy protection and determine their losses now, according to Edmund Parker, head of derivatives at law firm Mayer Brown LLP in London.

National Australia Bank, the country's biggest lender by assets, paid A$100 million ($67 million) this year to hedge the risk of loss on six company-linked CDOs totaling A$1.6 billion. It will pay a further A$60 million annually for the next five years, according to company filings.

`Drawn a Line'

``The upside is that you've now drawn a line on those assets and you know you're not going to lose more than your hedging costs,'' Parker said. ``Unless, of course, your counterparty goes under.''

Companies most frequently referenced in synthetic CDOs include Philadelphia-based Radian Group Inc., the third-largest U.S. mortgage insurer, whose stock fell 68 percent in New York trading this year. Another is CIT Group Inc., an unprofitable commercial lender in New York that dropped 83 percent. The company faces about $2.4 billion in debt repayments by the end of 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

``We feel very strongly that we have adequate claims-paying capabilities for both our financial-guarantee business and our mortgage-insurer business,'' said Radian spokesman Richard Gillespie.

CIT spokesman Curtis Ritter declined to comment, pointing to the company's statement last week that it will meet funding needs for the next 12 months.

Forecasts for ratings downgrades are ``going to force a lot of activity'' in unwinding CDOs, said Rohan Douglas, former director of global credit derivatives research at Citigroup Inc. He now heads Quantifi Inc., a provider of valuation models for the debt. ``Buy-and-hold investors suddenly find themselves in a situation where they will have to sell these assets.''

To contact the reporters on this story: Abigail Moses in London Amoses5@bloomberg.net; Neil Unmack in London nunmack@bloomberg.net; Shannon D. Harrington in New York at sharrington6@bloomberg.net
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 22, 2008, 12:40:20 PM
Has anyone any good news ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Donagh on October 24, 2008, 10:55:43 AM
ISEQ down over 7% today and heading for 2500. Anyone know whats happening?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: the Deel Rover on October 24, 2008, 11:17:58 AM
Quote from: Donagh on October 24, 2008, 10:55:43 AM
ISEQ down over 7% today and heading for 2500. Anyone know whats happening?


i think i heard on the radio donagh that the Asian markets have taking massive hits the past 2 nights/ days and we are just following suite 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Zapatista on October 24, 2008, 11:37:39 AM
Quote from: Donagh on October 24, 2008, 10:55:43 AM
ISEQ down over 7% today and heading for 2500. Anyone know whats happening?

With Obama spending so much on advertisements and Pallin on Designer clothes (I thought all clothes were designed) the future looks much like the past.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: ardal on October 24, 2008, 11:50:54 AM
Quote from: orangeman on October 22, 2008, 12:40:20 PM
Has anyone any good news ?

Yep. I'm a teacher, no more classes today, having a couple of beers, and turning down private classes at €25 per hr. It's also a bright and sunny day and the wife and wee one are  away for the weekend :D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Zapatista on October 24, 2008, 12:26:39 PM
Just because i had nowhere else to post this :D

(http://mail.google.com/mail/?attid=0.1&disp=emb&view=att&th=11d2e57355651fad)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 24, 2008, 03:30:54 PM
Can anyone expalin why the dollar has strengthened so much against the euor and the £.

Last year £1 = $2.10 - todays it's worth $1.55
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: passedit on October 24, 2008, 05:21:55 PM
Cowan's bluff soon to be called?


QuoteSHARES IN IRISH BANKS PLUNGE ; Bank of Ireland
Thursday, October 23, 2008 5:14 PM
(Source: Daily Mirror)trackingBy EOIN REYNOLDS

IRISH banks took a hammering yesterday as panic gripped European markets over fears of a global recession.

Bank of Ireland was the worst hit, with shares plunging 16 per cent to EUR1.61.

Irish Life & Permanent took a 6.5 per cent hit while Anglo Irish Bank lost 6.8 per cent and AIB dropped 5.9 per cent.

Dublin's ISEQ index of shares slumped by five per cent, largely fuelled by the banking downturn.

And the global economy moved closer to worldwide recession after another disastrous day for financial markets.

Government moves to bail out and secure banks across the world were overshadowed by the deepening crisis. The euro and sterling both took a battering with the UK currency hitting a five-year-low.

At one point the euro dipped to its lowest point since 2006.

Amid the turmoil British bank chief Mervyn King warned a recession is now likely.

Mr King said the combination of banks not being able to give out loans and higher energy and food prices would drain the economy of money. The doom and gloom was prevalent across Europe with London's FTSE index sinking 3.5 per cent, the Paris Cac slumping 3.9 per cent and the Frankfurt DAX suffering a drop of 3.5 per cent.

Asian markets also took a pounding yesterday, with Tokyo's Nikkei index tumbling 6.79 per cent.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng was down 6.2 per cent, while South Korea's main index shed 5.1 per cent of its value.

US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, the architect of the recent bail-out of the American banking system, said: "Clearly, we're going to have a number of difficult months ahead of us in terms of the real economy."

(c) 2008 Daily Mirror. Provided by ProQuest LLC. All rights Reserved.

A service of YellowBrix, Inc.
Title: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on October 24, 2008, 06:22:18 PM
Quote from: orangeman on October 24, 2008, 03:30:54 PM
Can anyone expalin why the dollar has strengthened so much against the euor and the £.

Last year £1 = $2.10 - todays it's worth $1.55

The Americans can't really cut interest rates any more than they have while there is still room for the Euro zone and Sterling to do so. That leads to a traditional move into the currency not going to cut rates.

Also investors, when the dollar was falling, ran to fuel in particular and now that has tumbled in recent weeks so maybe they are fleeing back to the dollar.

There is a train of thought that the recent rise in the dollar is an abberation and it will fall big time in the near future as the current administration are just printing as many dollars as they possibly can at the moment.

As for our screwed up market. Rumours are that the banks will have to deal with all the developers mortgage holidays. That could bring about the final fall in both property prices and shares. Then we might see a bottom to this here in Ireland. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on October 24, 2008, 06:43:23 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 24, 2008, 06:22:18 PM
Quote from: orangeman on October 24, 2008, 03:30:54 PM
Can anyone expalin why the dollar has strengthened so much against the euor and the £.

Last year £1 = $2.10 - todays it's worth $1.55

The Americans can't really cut interest rates any more than they have while there is still room for the Euro zone and Sterling to do so. That leads to a traditional move into the currency not going to cut rates.

Also investors, when the dollar was falling, ran to fuel in particular and now that has tumbled in recent weeks so maybe they are fleeing back to the dollar.

There is a train of thought that the recent rise in the dollar is an abberation and it will fall big time in the near future as the current administration are just printing as many dollars as they possibly can at the moment.

As for our screwed up market. Rumours are that the banks will have to deal with all the developers mortgage holidays. That could bring about the final fall in both property prices and shares. Then we might see a bottom to this here in Ireland. 



It's hard to see the dollar $ falling to $2.10 against the £ again anytime soon.

The bottom ?? That's been exercising the minds of an awful lot of people.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on October 24, 2008, 06:48:52 PM
Quote from: orangeman on October 24, 2008, 06:43:23 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 24, 2008, 06:22:18 PM
Quote from: orangeman on October 24, 2008, 03:30:54 PM
Can anyone expalin why the dollar has strengthened so much against the euor and the £.

Last year £1 = $2.10 - todays it's worth $1.55

The Americans can't really cut interest rates any more than they have while there is still room for the Euro zone and Sterling to do so. That leads to a traditional move into the currency not going to cut rates.

Also investors, when the dollar was falling, ran to fuel in particular and now that has tumbled in recent weeks so maybe they are fleeing back to the dollar.

There is a train of thought that the recent rise in the dollar is an abberation and it will fall big time in the near future as the current administration are just printing as many dollars as they possibly can at the moment.

As for our screwed up market. Rumours are that the banks will have to deal with all the developers mortgage holidays. That could bring about the final fall in both property prices and shares. Then we might see a bottom to this here in Ireland. 



It's hard to see the dollar $ falling to $2.10 against the £ again anytime soon.

The bottom ?? That's been exercising the minds of an awful lot of people.

It can't come until the banks deal with the developer loans. After that maybe....
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on October 25, 2008, 02:48:49 AM
I'd agree muppet, the us policy of printing money HAS to come home to roost, the dollar must be massively overvalued at the moment - i think worldwide we may be over the worst of it (not in terms of market falls), but that maybe we'll survive a total market failure THIS time.  That's a good point re oil and the same could be said for gold which has fallen off in price over the last week or so too.  The other thing we should remember re the dollar surge is that many of these rallies are manipulated to an extent by speculators and they like to follow a trend - demand for dollars last week was extremely high as the lehman brothers derivative positions were being unwound to the tune of 400-500bn dollars, so holders of dollars could almost name their price. 
Against sterling the utterance of the word RECESSION by BOE governor was the cue for another 2p off the value, basically the two main things forex rates are based on are supposed to be potential growth rates and interest rates and King's speech basically said that both would be low for the forseeable future - though why anyone thinks the US are going to avoid a recession is beyond me, imo bar ourselves and iceland they're about as fcuked as there is.
The Irish market is also probably oversold, but until the banks come clean who would have a punt on it?  I might have a look for some products that could give me a little exposure to a potential upside (to worldwide recovery), i wouldn't dream of picking individual equities though, any suggestions off the tops of your heads - is it too early still?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Zapatista on October 25, 2008, 08:34:54 AM
In the papers yesterday Irelands bail out was being hailed as the cheapest in the world (I wonder were that came from? a government in bad need of good publicity perhaps?) and we can  therefore assume the best :D

The Irish banks were bailed out on the promise of credit. What was it caused the problem again? While the rest of the world inject money and buy shares the Irish tax payer goes Guarantor for a credit which cannot be repaid :D

Someone please take that spade away from Lenihan. When they come after the guarantor for the funds and are a caught looking into an empty purse who will offer the credit? I'd say we should go to the Brits and ask for the credit. We can use the 26 counties as collateral. Neo colonialism :D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on October 25, 2008, 12:20:25 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on October 25, 2008, 08:34:54 AMSomeone please take that spade away from Lenihan. When they come after the guarantor for the funds and are a caught looking into an empty purse who will offer the credit? I'd say we should go to the Brits and ask for the credit. We can use the 26 counties as collateral. Neo colonialism :D
I think the brits are done with sub-prime lending though :D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on October 29, 2008, 09:20:50 PM
http://www.breakingnews.ie/business/mhidmhsnojsn/

The Fed cuts rates to 1%. ECB likely to cut rates next week.

I wonder will we see rates at 0% as happened in Japan. I will be looking for some big interest only loans in that event.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Down Gael on October 30, 2008, 06:15:16 AM
Quote from: muppet on October 29, 2008, 09:20:50 PM
http://www.breakingnews.ie/business/mhidmhsnojsn/

The Fed cuts rates to 1%. ECB likely to cut rates next week.

I wonder will we see rates at 0% as happened in Japan. I will be looking for some big interest only loans in that event.

But will you get those loans?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: passedit on October 30, 2008, 08:41:06 AM
The Banks' asset base continues to shrink. I hope the poster who was on a few weeks ago looking mortgage advice kept his money in his pocket.

Quote
House prices post biggest annual drop
Thu Oct 30, 2008 7:59am GMT


LONDON (Reuters) - House prices fell 1.4 percent in the month of October to post their biggest annual drop since comparable records began in 1991, the Nationwide building society said on Thursday.

The 12th consecutive monthly drop highlights the reversal of fortune for the property market since the credit crunch took hold last summer. Nevertheless, September's fall was smaller than the declines registered in each of the previous three months.

The annual drop of 14.6 percent took the average price of a property to 158,872 pounds, almost 30,000 pounds less than their peak a year ago.

"A looming recession and continued financial market instability have uncomfortable implications for the housing and mortgage markets, and will undoubtedly affect the pace of recovery in house prices," said Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide's chief economist.

Nationwide said homes were now taking 60 percent longer to sell than a year ago and turnover rates had fallen to their lowest level since this series began in 1974.

The precipitous drop in house prices both in the country and overseas has been a key driver of the crisis that has rocked the banking sector, prompting unprecedented government intervention.

Economic newsflow has continued to be dismal, raising expectations the Bank of England will follow up this month's half-point interest rate cut with further reductions in the coming months.

"The possibility of even deeper rate cuts this year is increasing as the Bank of England attempts to prevent a deep and prolonged recession," Earley said.

"This will make life easier for borrowers on variable rate loans and those coming to the end of fixed-rate deals."
Title: Squeaky bum time for the biffo
Post by: passedit on November 06, 2008, 09:13:17 AM
Rumours of a bank holiday tomorrow.  Get some cash out mexicans.


QuoteLONDON (Standard & Poor's) Nov. 5, 2008--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services
    said today that it reviewed its counterparty credit ratings on the following
    four independent rated Irish banks:
    -- Allied Irish Banks PLC
    -- Bank of Ireland
    -- Irish Life & Permanent PLC
    -- Anglo Irish Bank Corp. PLC
    Standard & Poor's revised its outlooks on Allied Irish Banks (AIB) and
    Bank of Ireland (BOI) to negative from stable. At the same time, the 'A+/A-1'
    counterparty credit ratings were affirmed. Additionally, Standard & Poor's
    lowered its long-term counterparty credit ratings on Irish Life & Permanent
    (IL&P) and Anglo Irish Bank (Anglo) to 'A-' from 'A'.

    At the same time, Standard & Poor's placed its 'A-/A-1' long- and short-term counter party credit ratings on IL&P and Anglo on CreditWatch with negative implications.
    Furthermore, we resolved the CreditWatch placements of the senior and dated subordinated issues of the four independent rated banks, which are guaranteed by the Republic of Ireland (AAA/Stable/A-1+).

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: passedit on November 06, 2008, 09:18:14 AM
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/11/05/17853/the-deteriorating-picture-at-aib/ (http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/11/05/17853/the-deteriorating-picture-at-aib/)



The deteriorating picture at AIB


Shares in Allied Irish Bank were down 17 per cent on Wednesday morning after the bank warned on profits for the second time this year. Shareholders can now expect earnings of just €1.20 in 2008 versus the €1.85-1.90 figure the bank suggested back in July (cut from €2.06 in 2007). Analysts had expected EPS to fall no further than €1.75 a share.

After solidly defending the quality of its loan book the past few quarters, the bank is finally admitting bad debts are significantly on the rise, be it, mainly in the Irish residential development book:

At the operating level, before bad debt charges, all our businesses continue to perform well and the overall group rate of income growth is expected to exceed that of cost growth in 2008 by c. 2% The credit environment though continues to deteriorate and is doing so at an accelerated pace in recent months, heavily influenced by an acute scarcity of liquidity and highly elevated funding costs. There has been some negative effect on asset quality generally across our loan portfolios, though the effect is most material in our Irish residential development book. Deterioration in that book is the principal driver of a revised group bad debt charge expectation of c. 75 basis points (bps) of average loans in 2008. The expected charge comprises c. 45 bps of specific provisions and c. 30 bps of IBNR provisions, the latter figure reflecting our forward looking view in a credit environment which will continue to be challenging. This revision, together with the costs of higher funding and an estimate of the cost of the Irish Government guarantee scheme, lead us to reduce our earnings per share target for this year to around euro 120c.

Luckily, that extremely well-timed Irish government move to guarantee 100 per cent of Irish-bank held deposits has helped AIB in the funding of those impairments (for the time being). Being the first to do so in Europe, Irish banks clearly benefited from a rush of deposits into their accounts. The bank states:

Customer deposits, sourced from across the range of our domestic and international franchises, continue to be our largest source of funding and will increase as a proportion of total funding this year. We are targeting customer deposits to grow by a low teens percentage in 2008. Customer loans are forecast to increase by around 9% causing the loan to deposit ratio to fall from 157% at the end of 2007 to c. 150% at the end of 2008. We are targeting further reductions in this ratio in subsequent periods.

The bank had referred to its European businesses providing some relief to its p&l in previous statements. While AIB says its 70.5 per cent share in Poland's Bank Zachodni/WBK is still performing well with asset quality remaining good - it now admits the country is not so immune to the global credit crisis and that it will be vigilant over performance:

The very low level of bad debt charge in 2007 will not be repeated this year due to a lower level of recoveries and we expect the 2008 charge to be a low / mid 30 bps of average loans.

On the domestic front, the bank's outlook for its residential loan book is even bleaker. It now says the market can expect no meaningful recovery until the first half of 2011 (previously 2010), anticipating an average peak to trough fall in values of undeveloped land (c. €7bn of portfolio) and completed houses (c. €3.7bn of portfolio) of c. 40 per cent and 30 per cent respectively.

However, AIB says its commercial real-estate book is "solidly" supported by regular, recurring income streams and low vacancy rates. While it acknowledges decreasing rents could place some stress, overall quality remains good.

JP Morgan might beg to differ though. In its latest report on the European commercial real estate market the bank highlighted AIB as exposed:

In this note we focus specifically in the risks (especially to earnings) embedded in the commercial real estate market, which we see as the next area to deteriorate after the well flagged crisis in the residential real estate market, and indeed we see CRE as the first part of the banks' corporate loan book to encounter asset quality problems.

Our universe of banks has €1trn of on-balance sheet exposure to the CRE market equivalent to 12% of their loan book or 1.76x their equity base; this is not immaterial. They also have €43bln exposure through CMBS. The most exposed banks are Aareal and Anglo with 97% and 82% respectively; they are followed by AIB, HRX, Handels, BOI, Natixis, all of whom have CRE loans of between 20% and 35%.

If troubles persist - the key question is would the bank consider the government-equity route? According to the Irish Times, AIB chief executive Eugene Sheehy told a gathering of private investors last week the bank would "rather die than raise equity" and that it had "options for self help" other than raising fresh equity. Presumably selling-off its US or Polish divisions?
Title: Re: Squeaky bum time for the biffo
Post by: full back on November 06, 2008, 09:20:40 AM
Quote from: passedit on November 06, 2008, 09:13:17 AM
Rumours of a bank holiday tomorrow.  Get some cash out mexicans.


QuoteLONDON (Standard & Poor's) Nov. 5, 2008--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services
    said today that it reviewed its counterparty credit ratings on the following
    four independent rated Irish banks:
    -- Allied Irish Banks PLC
    -- Bank of Ireland
    -- Irish Life & Permanent PLC
    -- Anglo Irish Bank Corp. PLC
    Standard & Poor's revised its outlooks on Allied Irish Banks (AIB) and
    Bank of Ireland (BOI) to negative from stable. At the same time, the 'A+/A-1'
    counterparty credit ratings were affirmed. Additionally, Standard & Poor's
    lowered its long-term counterparty credit ratings on Irish Life & Permanent
    (IL&P) and Anglo Irish Bank (Anglo) to 'A-' from 'A'.

    At the same time, Standard & Poor's placed its 'A-/A-1' long- and short-term counter party credit ratings on IL&P and Anglo on CreditWatch with negative implications.
    Furthermore, we resolved the CreditWatch placements of the senior and dated subordinated issues of the four independent rated banks, which are guaranteed by the Republic of Ireland (AAA/Stable/A-1+).




Anyone explain this in laymans terms?
Title: Interest Rates Cut To 3%
Post by: full back on November 06, 2008, 12:34:24 PM
The Bank of England has cut interest rates in the UK by one-and-a-half percentage points to 3%, its lowest since 1955, in a shock move.

Last month it cut rates from 5% to 4.5% in an emergency move co-ordinated with other central banks.

There had been widespread calls from industry for a major cut as the country begins to face up to the prospect of a deep recession.

It is the most dramatic cut since a two percentage point reduction in 1981.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Rois on November 06, 2008, 12:36:26 PM
I love the Bank of England.  They've just knocked about £350 a month off my mortgage payment.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Main Street on November 06, 2008, 12:44:53 PM
That's the theory.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Rois on November 06, 2008, 12:46:12 PM
Happened with the last cut - paid over £100 less this month.  Has happened with every other cut - no reason to suspect it won't happen again.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on November 06, 2008, 12:52:17 PM
Quote from: Rois on November 06, 2008, 12:36:26 PM
I love the Bank of England.  They've just knocked about £350 a month off my mortgage payment.

That's some mortgage you have !
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Rois on November 06, 2008, 12:56:26 PM
I know  :'(

It's all interest...but at least the saving will go towards paying off the capital. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Main Street on November 06, 2008, 12:57:02 PM
Rois, you are the one with the mortgage so you can talk about it.
I am just reflecting a level of skepticism of just how much of that % will be passed on to the mortgage holders and the types of mortgages effected.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/nov/06/interestrates-interestrates2 (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/nov/06/interestrates-interestrates2)

"This reduction in the bank rate will provide some support to the housing market and especially borrowers on tracker rates. However, borrowers looking for new fixed rate deals or homeowners with mortgages linked to money market rates will not necessarily find their mortgage rate decreasing".

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Norf Tyrone on November 06, 2008, 12:59:11 PM
My mortgage term is up in Feb too, so I need to start shopping around.

Today's announcement will help big style!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Rois on November 06, 2008, 01:09:56 PM
Quote from: Main Street on November 06, 2008, 12:57:02 PM
I am just reflecting a level of skepticism of just how much of that % will be passed on to the mortgage holders and the types of mortgages effected.


You're dead right Main Street, a friend of mine hasn't had any rate increases passed on, and she's on a standard variable rate.  New mortgage seekers won't see a difference till LIBOR comes down.

Just hope the First Trust continue their good work.  Might start to own my house instead of just paying a kind of extortionate rent.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Tony Baloney on November 06, 2008, 01:21:05 PM
Getting a fixed rate a few months ago was a good idea  :'(
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on November 06, 2008, 01:22:51 PM
Will this 2% reduction in the last 2 months have the desired effect ? It didn't in USA - so why should it be any different here ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on November 06, 2008, 02:55:10 PM
Proof of my last forecast above :



Who benefits from rate cut?
Robert Peston 6 Nov 08, 01:22 PM I've just had a call from an astonished individual who has several hundred million pounds that he puts on deposit in various banks.

As of 10 minutes ago, a leading British bank was offering to pay him almost 7% interest for his cash.

That was after the Bank of England's policy rate had been slashed by 1.5 percentage points to 3% - an unprecedented reduction in the history of the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee.

Why does it matter that this holder of squillions is still being offered almost 7%?

Well, if he's being paid almost 7%, what chance is there that small businesses will be able to borrow at less than 10, 12, 14% or more (with the actual rate depending on an assessment of their credit-worthiness)?

Those who most need a substantial cut in the interest they pay - hard-pressed businesses, cash-strapped households - are unlikely to enjoy more than a small reduction.

As I described in my note on Sunday ("Why interest rates are not falling") the transmission mechanism from the Bank of England's policy rate to the interest rates we pay has broken down.

Lenders have - understandably - concluded that the risk of lending has risen very sharply, and are therefore demanding much greater rewards for providing credit.

So at a time when all the indications are that we are in a fairly severe recession, and many companies and individuals are struggling to keep afloat, it's a serious worry that even the kind of evasive action attempted today by the Bank of England may provide only modest succour.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Smokin Joe on November 06, 2008, 08:57:25 PM
If your mortage rate tracks the BoE base rate you are in clover, if however your rate tracks the bank's SVR you should have known better.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: bcarrier on November 07, 2008, 03:11:51 PM
RBS/ Natwest and presumably Ulster have now also cut their SVR by 1.5% . 3 Month £ LIBOR is at a five year low. Similar for EURIBOR. I also love the BoE.

In those areas where rental yields exceed cost of borrowing there should be a bottoming out of the property market now.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: passedit on November 11, 2008, 01:17:13 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on November 07, 2008, 03:11:51 PM
RBS/ Natwest and presumably Ulster have now also cut their SVR by 1.5% . 3 Month £ LIBOR is at a five year low. Similar for EURIBOR. I also love the BoE.

In those areas where rental yields exceed cost of borrowing there should be a bottoming out of the property market now.



You're some optimist BC, Whatever rate the banks are lending at, their lending criteria have tightened so much the rates are as near irrelevant as can be. Still a long way to fall especially in NI.

More good news from Santander today (I was kinda expecting this when they put a £10,000 per day spending limit on my business debit card a month ago for 'security reasons', yeah the fact they had none)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/3418229/Santander-stuns-the-markets-with-7.2bn-rights-issue.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/3418229/Santander-stuns-the-markets-with-7.2bn-rights-issue.html)

QuoteSantander stuns the markets with €7.2bn rights issue
Banco Santander is to raise €7.2bn (£5.8bn) in fresh capital and foreswear further expansion in a shock move that raises fresh questions about the underlying health of the Spanish financial system


By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 6:49AM GMT 11 Nov 2008
Emilio Botin, Santander's chief executive
Emilio Botin, Santander's chief executive

The rights issue comes a week after the bank – which owns Abbey in the UK – signalled that it had no need for fresh capital.

"This is very surprising: they had given no indication of this," said Silvia Verde, an analyst at Inverseguros in Madrid. There is no pressing need to roll over debts. The dividend will be maintained.

Emilio Botin, Santander's chief executive, said the move was aimed at boosting the bank's core capital ratio to 7pc to meet its own "self-imposed" guidelines after a wave of acquisitions in Britain, Latin America, and the US.

"Banco Santander has always had a very clear approach to capital strength. This is a magnificent opportunity for shareholders," he said. The bank said it had shelved a series of planned asset sales until prices recovered to "acceptable levels".

The rights issue comes as the economic outlook in Spain continues to darken. Housing minister Beatriz Corredor said yesterday that property prices had fallen "at least 15pc" over the last year. "It is a reality that we cannot deny," she said.

Spain's premier, Jose Luis Zapatero, called in the heads Santander, BBVA, and the country's leading "Caja" lenders on Monday to frame a response to the crisis following the government's pledge to guarantee €100bn guarantee of bank debt.

Santander has been Europe's rising star, dodging fallout from the sub-prime debacle in the US. Now the Continent's most valuable bank, it has seemed impervious to the crisis despite its high-risk adventures in the UK mortgage market, taking over Abbey, Alliance & Leicester, and now Sovereign Bancorp in the US as well.

Analysts said Santander is almost certainly battening down the hatches, expecting trouble in its core markets – including a sudden downturn in Latin America as investors pull their money out of emerging markets.

Fitch Ratings began to downgrade a clutch of Santander mortgage securities worth more than €4bn earlier this summer, warning that the bank's internal analysis points to a 35pc crash in Spanish house prices. A large bloc of the securities is still stuck on Santander's books.

Fitch said the securities had been "sliced and diced" in the same way as US sub-prime bonds. They were based on mortgages that often exceeded 95pc or even 100pc of the house value. The arrears rate on the more recent vintages have reached 7pc to 8pc.

Optimists note that Santander still has no trouble raising fresh capital in the market place. That is no mean feat at a time when a large number of banks in the Western world are being supported by taxpayers.
 
Title: Today's feelgood story
Post by: passedit on November 12, 2008, 05:20:04 PM
Ken Clarke warns Britain is on the brink of 'meltdown'

QuoteKenneth Clarke, the former Conservative Chancellor, has warned the economy is on the brink of "meltdown" and unemployment could reach three million.


By Rupert Neate and Robert Miller
Last Updated: 3:44PM GMT 12 Nov 2008
http://link.brightcove.com/services/link/bcpid1529573275/bctid1915453605 http://www.brightcove.com/channel.jsp?channel=1139053637 (http://link.brightcove.com/services/link/bcpid1529573275/bctid1915453605%20http://www.brightcove.com/channel.jsp?channel=1139053637)

Mr Clarke, 68, said the British economy is headed for a "catastrophic crisis" that will be "far worse than anything that has occurred in my lifetime".

"There will be a very serious recession next year," he said in an interview with Telegraph TV. "I think the big problem in 2009 will be the catastrophic fall in consumer spending demand, spending in shops will get worse."

Mr Clarke, who as Chancellor of the Exchequer between 1993 and 1997 led Britain's recovery from Black Wednesday, called for a temporary cut in VAT to boost spending.

Speaking as the Office of National Statistics revealed unemployment has reached an 11-year high of 1.82m, Mr Clarke said the number of jobless could soon reach three million.

"It is going to go up a long way... whether we will get back to three million again is one of those slightly morbid questions I really don't know the answer to. But it could get pretty big," he said. Rising unemployment will have a "devastating effect" on families and lead to more people being unable to pay their mortgages, he said.

The former Chancellor said Gordon Brown has received undue credit for his role in attempting to shore up the global economy. "The idea that Gordon has saved the world is not true," he said. "We still have a major, major crisis in this country and... public finances are in a terrible mess".

Mr Clarke said the larger than expected 1.5 percentage point cut in the base rate was a good move, but cautioned that it would not end the crisis. "We had a big cut in interest rates, about which there was a wholly exaggerated expectation, in the short term it will have modest effects, if any. Long-term it will begin to have effects.

"We are not yet in a state where we can be absolutely certain we are not going to have something close to meltdown next year", he said. "You do have to see what can be done with taxes."

He cautioned that Britain has "mounting debt, which is unsustainable" but said policymakers should bear in mind the effect a "full-blown depression will have on public finances". Looking forward to the Pre-Budget Report he said any fiscal stimulus package would have to work in both the national interest and contribute to worldwide efforts to stabilise the global economy.

Mr Clarke said the public can see the Prime Minister has got more "confident" in his economic judgement, but said he imagines the Treasury is being "driven crazy by the wild way" in which he and his advisers spark speculation about the way the Government intends to combat the financial crisis.

According to Mr Clarke, public respect for banks, which are "hated institutions" at the best of times, has collapsed. He was also "very concerned" that the Government could make the crisis worse by forcing banks into "lending that they cannot afford".

"When I hear these stories of the Chancellor being presumably ordered by the Prime Minister to get the banks in and waving newspaper headlines at them I think that is no way of making policy," he said.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: bcarrier on November 12, 2008, 08:41:25 PM
The punt now buys 106p sterling.

What are rental yields in North ...i have heard of 2-3% in places which implies huge over valuation of property. I can get nearly 6- 7% in London.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: passedit on November 12, 2008, 10:35:39 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on November 12, 2008, 08:41:25 PM
The punt now buys 106p sterling.

What are rental yields in North ...i have heard of 2-3% in places which implies huge over valuation of property. I can get nearly 6- 7% in London.

Indeed BC, although the penny appears to be dropping. You can't give away flats here now and even the estate agents are beginning to cop on. Prices (as in sold not advertised) are down around 50% from last year and have a fair ways to go yet.

London is starting to bomb as well though, check out some of the prices from this auction today.

http://www.auction.co.uk/residential/ResultsLive.asp?S=C&O=A (http://www.auction.co.uk/residential/ResultsLive.asp?S=C&O=A)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Donagh on November 12, 2008, 10:42:24 PM
Quote from: passedit on November 12, 2008, 10:35:39 PM
Prices (as in sold not advertised) are down around 50% from last year and have a fair ways to go yet.

Really? Is there anyway of finding out what houses have been sold for? We've been loking at houses down around south Armagh and south Down (handy to A1) and they still seem wild expensive but we don't want to be going in with cheeky bids in case we're told to feck aff. Most of the properties we've been looking at have been on the market for near a year but still have the same asking prices.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: bcarrier on November 12, 2008, 11:00:34 PM
SE postcodes passedit . Who would live there.

W and E1 Ok.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: passedit on November 12, 2008, 11:14:48 PM
In any part of the UK apart from this dump you can simply click on http://www.houseprices.co.uk (http://www.houseprices.co.uk) and  punch in the address.

Here you have to stroll on down to the Land Registry Office and pay your three quid.

Estate Agents are openly admitting 40 % drops ( see linkhttp://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=94846 (http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=94846)) while a bank valuer told a friend of my missus only this week that the house she bought for £500k last year was worth £250 (she had been hoping to extract some equity  ::)  ) and that what few mortgage approvals there were, were reflecting 50% off from last autumn.


Quote
We've been loking at houses down around south Armagh and south Down (handy to A1) and they still seem wild expensive but we don't want to be going in with cheeky bids in case we're told to feck aff. Most of the properties we've been looking at have been on the market for near a year but still have the same asking prices.


Why not? Substitute realistic for cheeky and you're nearly there. If you must buy now, why not ring a few estate agents, tell them what you want (location, bedrooms etc and that you're a willing buyer at or around rateable value.  http://vlistdcv.lpsni.gov.uk/search.asp?submit=form (http://vlistdcv.lpsni.gov.uk/search.asp?submit=form)  and for them to give you a shout when they've got what you're looking for. You might not hear anything for a month or so but they'll be ringing you soon enough


Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: passedit on November 12, 2008, 11:27:56 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on November 12, 2008, 11:00:34 PM
SE postcodes passedit . Who would live there.

W and E1 Ok.


Oi!
Me for about six years.


What about this one then? http://www.auction.co.uk/residential/LotDetails.asp?A=582&MP=125&ID=582000109&S=L&O=A (http://www.auction.co.uk/residential/LotDetails.asp?A=582&MP=125&ID=582000109&S=L&O=A)
last sale here http://www.houseprices.co.uk/e.php?q=113%2C+flat+4+SW10+9DU&n=10 (http://www.houseprices.co.uk/e.php?q=113%2C+flat+4+SW10+9DU&n=10)

there'll be plenty more where that came from
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: bcarrier on November 13, 2008, 09:31:47 AM
What yield would you buy at passedit ?

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: the Deel Rover on November 13, 2008, 09:48:52 AM
Quote from: Donagh on November 12, 2008, 10:42:24 PM
Quote from: passedit on November 12, 2008, 10:35:39 PM
Prices (as in sold not advertised) are down around 50% from last year and have a fair ways to go yet.

Really? Is there anyway of finding out what houses have been sold for? We've been loking at houses down around south Armagh and south Down (handy to A1) and they still seem wild expensive but we don't want to be going in with cheeky bids in case we're told to feck aff. Most of the properties we've been looking at have been on the market for near a year but still have the same asking prices.


Donagh there is no harm going in with a cheeky bid what have you got to loose all the person can say is yes or no. At the moment its a buyers market. buyers with mortgage approval are like hens teeth and no one knows the circumstances of the seller they might be in a hurry to sell the house .
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Rois on November 13, 2008, 10:03:54 AM
What about the Presbyterian Mutual fund news this morning?  Liquidity problems caused by panic withdrawls it seems.

It operates under the same model as credit unions, which poses a risk for a large number.  No government guarantees with these savings.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: passedit on November 13, 2008, 10:31:23 AM
Quote from: Rois on November 13, 2008, 10:03:54 AM
What about the Presbyterian Mutual fund news this morning?  Liquidity problems caused by panic withdrawls it seems.

It operates under the same model as credit unions, which poses a risk for a large number.  No government guarantees with these savings.




Substitute the word sensible here. Apparently deep in the hole to Taggart Holdings. I loved the bit where the Presbyterian church was offering pastoral care (but no bailouts obviously to fundholders  ::)  )

BC I wouldn't buy at any yield today. Keep your money in your pocket for six months and see how much more bang for your buck you get.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: FermGael on November 13, 2008, 11:34:14 AM
Quote from: Donagh on November 12, 2008, 10:42:24 PM
Quote from: passedit on November 12, 2008, 10:35:39 PM
Prices (as in sold not advertised) are down around 50% from last year and have a fair ways to go yet.

Really? Is there anyway of finding out what houses have been sold for? We've been loking at houses down around south Armagh and south Down (handy to A1) and they still seem wild expensive but we don't want to be going in with cheeky bids in case we're told to feck aff. Most of the properties we've been looking at have been on the market for near a year but still have the same asking prices.

Donagh try this site http://nipropertyauctions.googlepages.com/ (http://nipropertyauctions.googlepages.com/)
Gives a list of auctions happening in the North in the last while, starting bids, selling price, etc.
At the last ReMax Super Auction, nothing sold. 
When you google some of the properties, you can see that the estate agents are still looking £80'000 over what the starting auctioneer's bid was and they still could not sell it.
Cheeky bid's are the way to go
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Donagh on November 13, 2008, 12:01:01 PM
Thanks lads. That's given me a bit more confidence to go for it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on November 19, 2008, 09:30:20 AM
US car chiefs call for €20bn bailout
Wednesday, 19 November 2008 07:33
The heads of the three big US car manufacturers appeared before a US Senate committee last night in a bid to get €20bn in a stop gap loan.

The largest of the three, General Motors, is experiencing severe financial difficulties and faces the prospect of bankruptcy.

The US auto industry maintains that some 3m jobs are on the line because of the crisis.

AdvertisementThe CEOs of Ford, GM, Chrysler as well as the head of the United Autoworkers Union were on Capitol Hill last night in an all-out effort to secure the loan.

Sales at GM in particular are down 45% compared to last year. The company is spending its cash reserves at the rate of €1.5bn a month.

Last night, its CEO Rick Wagoner said the US economy would suffer a catastrophic collapse if his firm went under.

But bailout fatigue is setting in on Capitol Hill, where lawmakers have already authorised hundreds of billions of dollars to support the financial sector.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: passedit on November 19, 2008, 02:54:38 PM
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/lenihan-to-sanction-huge-bank-rescue-plan-1544122.html (http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/lenihan-to-sanction-huge-bank-rescue-plan-1544122.html)

QuoteLenihan to sanction huge bank rescue plan

   
Search Query: Independent.ie Web Search

By Fionnan Sheahan and Joe Brennan

Wednesday November 19 2008

The Government is on the brink of launching a multi-billion euro rescue plan for the country's banks as the share price of a second major institution fell below €1 yesterday.

Officials are going through an expert report forensically examining the loans given out by the banks to work out their levels of bad debt.

Finance Minister Brian Lenihan held crisis talks last night with Central Bank governor John Hurley and Financial Regulator Patrick Neary.

It is understood the Government has now accepted that it will have to put public money into the banks.

The Opposition is piling pressure on for action to end the "credit famine" and ensure banks are able to give loans to businesses.

Taoiseach Brian Cowen told the Dail the Government was seeking a solution to the liquidity crisis and was looking at a range of possible measures.

Mr Lenihan has a number of different options to recapitalise the banks. These include buying ordinary shares, preference shares, or co-investing with private money.

Market sources believe the State would prefer to buy preference shares, as this would allow it to take an annual dividend even as banks scrap a payout to ordinary shareholders over the lifetime of the two-year guarantee scheme.

It is understood that the National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA) has been actively reviewing ways the €18.7bn National Pension Reserve Fund (NPRF) could be tapped as part of a recapitalisation plan.

The fund has about €1.5bn of cash, but the review is focused on finding ways to borrow off the back of some of its assets.

Analysts estimate banks will need to raise between €5bn and €14bn between them to boost their capital reserves.

It is likely the amount individual banks could access will reflect their current capital levels, expected loan writeoffs over the coming years and commitments they can give the State on lending to the broader economy.

The bank guarantee scheme means all covered banks are drawing up business plans, due for completion tomorrow.

The banks also had to grant access to PriceWaterhouse-Coopers to audit their books.

The Taoiseach says the Government will make further decisions when it has the banks' plans. If the banks don't plan to open up credit lines to businesses, Mr Cowen said the business plans will be rejected.

"I want to make it clear that the Government stands ready to make decisions that are in the interests of the economy and business and to consider all options, not just a specific option," he said.

Meanwhile, it emerged last night that the Government is paying Merrill Lynch a fee of €2m for its advice on the possible reorganisation of the banks.

Labour's Joan Burton obtained the figure from a question she posed to Mr Lenihan.

Closed

Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny demanded recapitalisation of the banks because 10,000 jobs are being lost every month.

"There is no point... in providing capital flows through the banking system after businesses have closed," he said.

Labour Party leader Eamon Gilmore said Mr Cowen and his Government were beginning to sound like "helpless bystanders".

"There is a credit famine in this country. Businesses are being starved of credit," he said.

Irish banking shares were under pressure again yesterday amid rising speculation on the Government's plan.

AIB's shares plunged 17.7pc to €2.18, while Anglo became the second bank in as many days to fall below the psychologically important €1 level. The stock closed down 25.1pc to 83c -- its lowest level in over a decade.

Bank of Ireland, meanwhile, managed to regain some ground, adding 12.2pc to 93c.

"The banks will continue to come under pressure until the Government takes action. It's death by a thousand cuts," said one market commentator.

- Fionnan Sheahan and Joe Brennan
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on November 20, 2008, 01:06:58 PM
As Graham Norton might say, My kingdom for a bottom.

The mixed messages coming from Lenihan's office are not helping. One newspaper says he will nationalise a bank or banks while the next says he is seeking private investors instead. That increases speculation in an already highly volatile market which results dangerous swings in the share prices. If he continues to dither like this we might wake up one morning to no ISEQ never mind the banks.

We are getting to a situation where we may need to consider a national government, at least temporarily. We could leave Cowan where he is but Kenny would replace Coughlan while Bruton would have to displace Lenihan. Any suggestions for Harney's desperately necessary successor? Dempsey and Hanafin should get their marching orders also. I don't like O'Keefe but at least he realises that this time its serious.

Around the world there here are reports of buy one car and get one free (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1082181/Buy-car-FREE-car-dealers-try-boost-sales.html), house sells for $1 (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/2560303/House-sold-for-1-in-sign-of-US-property-crisis.html) and even more bizarre Irish health unions seeks cuts from Minister to introduce vaccine (http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/mhidqlkfgbau/) (the unions seeking of cuts being the unusual bit). The US car industry is facing, in its own words, catastrophic collapse (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7738224.stm).

But its not all bad news. Tom Parsons isn't going to Australia!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Lone Shark on November 20, 2008, 02:48:08 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 20, 2008, 01:06:58 PM
We are getting to a situation where we may need to consider a national government, at least temporarily. We could leave Cowan where he is but Kenny would replace Coughlan while Bruton would have to displace Lenihan. Any suggestions for Harney's desperately necessary successor? Dempsey and Hanafin should get their marching orders also. I don't like O'Keefe but at least he realises that this time its serious.


I don't like this national government idea at all. After all, we have a government who can take whatever decisions they want - they only reason they want FG on board is so that they don't have to take the heat for doing so. Well as far as I'm concerned, it was FF-led governments who got us into this mess, so they should either apologise and step aside, or else go about fixing it and take the responsibility for any loss in popularity. As we've seen from FF, they love nothing more than letting junior partners take the flak for their bad government, and we see that even now. How many senior FF TD's are putting their hand up to take Harney's job? They love having her there to take the blame.

If Bruton got given the finance ministry now, he'd make swinging cuts becuase that's what needs to be done - and FF would happily try to make FG out to be the bad guys for the next election. Let Lenihan and Cowen sort out their own mess.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on November 20, 2008, 02:52:57 PM
Quote from: Lone Shark on November 20, 2008, 02:48:08 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 20, 2008, 01:06:58 PM
We are getting to a situation where we may need to consider a national government, at least temporarily. We could leave Cowan where he is but Kenny would replace Coughlan while Bruton would have to displace Lenihan. Any suggestions for Harney's desperately necessary successor? Dempsey and Hanafin should get their marching orders also. I don't like O'Keefe but at least he realises that this time its serious.


I don't like this national government idea at all. After all, we have a government who can take whatever decisions they want - they only reason they want FG on board is so that they don't have to take the heat for doing so. Well as far as I'm concerned, it was FF-led governments who got us into this mess, so they should either apologise and step aside, or else go about fixing it and take the responsibility for any loss in popularity. As we've seen from FF, they love nothing more than letting junior partners take the flak for their bad government, and we see that even now. How many senior FF TD's are putting their hand up to take Harney's job? They love having her there to take the blame.

If Bruton got given the finance ministry now, he'd make swinging cuts becuase that's what needs to be done - and FF would happily try to make FG out to be the bad guys for the next election. Let Lenihan and Cowen sort out their own mess.

I should have added that things are so serious that we should set aside party politics temporaily for the benefit if the country. No single party has a strong enough line up to manage this crisis so let's pick the best of all of them.

What is becoming increasingly obvious is the Lenihan is hopelessly out of his depth. Even if he only stopped the leaks from his office that would help.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on November 20, 2008, 02:57:52 PM
Just a quick point - did I hear correctly that the PWC report on the banks will remain confidential?  If so, it would give me a bit more confidence if a select group from the opposition at least were allowed to study it, say Rabbitte and Bruton at the very least, not that I don't trust PWC and FF you know ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Lone Shark on November 20, 2008, 02:58:41 PM
That would only work if FF themselves set party politics aside and actually took responsibility for where we are as a country. They won't do that, so why should FG be the good guys, only to be electorally punished for it?

In the long run, the country would be best served by the best politicians being rewarded at the ballot box, rather than the most self serving and conniving. Continually letting off the gombeen kleptomaniacs is not the answer at all, even if some short term pain is called for.


There was never any danger of the PWC report going public. I'd say they were told what was to go into it before they started.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on November 20, 2008, 03:08:44 PM
As of today the market cap of these companies is:

AIB  2,025,520,452
BOI 1,154,822,801
Anglo 793,390,071
IL&P 390,263,115

Their total value is €4,263,996,429.

2 years ago today those figures were:

AIB 19,079,930,413
BOI 15,661,323,506
Anglo 10,352,078,333
IL&P 5,310,839,688

The total value then was €50,404,171,940

The writing is on the wall, floor and ceiling.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on November 20, 2008, 03:22:55 PM
I don't particularly like McWilliams but it is hard to argue with his article yesterday:

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/act-now-minister-or-we-will-all-live-to-regret-it-1544060.html (http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/act-now-minister-or-we-will-all-live-to-regret-it-1544060.html)

[b]Act now, minister, or we will all live to regret it[/b]

Wednesday November 19 2008

We are now reaching the endgame. Few are in denial any more. The situation is dire and we need real leadership to get us out of this mess. Businesses across the country are going to the wall, unemployment is going through the roof and people who have been trading for years say this is much worse than the 1980s.

Cash, credit and demand have evaporated and the prospects look grim. This is a national emergency and we need a national plan.

The following is a six-point plan that would minimise the economic pain over the coming years, while at the same time ensure -- and this is crucial -- that Ireland can emerge from this chaos a considerably more profitable place to do business than it is at the moment.

There are aspects of this plan that need to be put in place immediately and others that could be carried out over time. Most of all we need to be decisive. While we hope for the best, we must prepare for the worst.

1. The minister has to make sure that the banking system does not implode in the coming weeks.

While the falling share price tells us that shareholders have given up on the present management, it also implies that bank funding is drying up, meaning that the liquidity benefit of the "guarantee" is at risk.

At this stage, without massive writedowns, it is unlikely that a private White Knight will emerge to buy the banks even at these prices, so some public recapitalisation is necessary. But this does not just mean State money from the pension fund.

There is a way that we, the public, can fund some of this, to the benefit of hundreds of thousands of ordinary savers. However, before a cent of State or public money goes in, the minister must demand that the board and management of the banks resign immediately. Hopefully, some of the management will resign as a matter of principle. After all, if you preside over a 95pc fall in your share price, it is time to go.

Whether this happens, or whether there is a coup at the top of the banks is immaterial, the point is the people who got us into this mess in the first place are not the people to get us out of it.

2. The recapitalisation should be democratic. By this I mean that the Irish people should be invited to participate.

There is plenty of money on deposit in Ireland -- more than enough to finance the hole in the banks' balance sheets. Therefore, the State could issue a convertible bond, which converts into equity in, let's say, five years.

This could be offered to us, the citizens of this country so that we -- not just some hedge fund from outside -- can profit from the Irish banks' recovery that will be based, after all, on the sweat of Irish workers in the future.

Any recapitalisation must also come with debt forgiveness for first-time buyers and the hundreds of thousands in negative equity.

There will be no recovery if an entire generation is burdened with enormous mortgage debts on houses that will not recover in value for years.

Many might argue that this penalises those who didn't get involved in the property madness. This is true, but there are things that we must do in emergencies, however unpalatable.

3. The new banks must be regulated more closely and instructed to limit property lending.

We have to make sure that we never again become beguiled by the idiocy that we can get rich by buying and selling overpriced houses to each other using other peoples' money. The recapitalised banks will finance proper businesses.

4. The Government must also avoid the trap being set by the bean counters in the Department of Finance. If the Government cuts everything now, slashing public spending across the board, the economy will shrink even more.

We must distinguish between good and bad public spending. At this stage, bad public spending is money spent now that doesn't make the economy more productive in the future. So wages and salaries need to be frozen, public sector employment reduced significantly, but infrastructure projects and investment in education have to be accelerated. We should borrow to do this. The State needs to stimulate the economy, not contract it and offer incentives for the private sector to invest, not save.

By reining in "bad" spending and accelerating "good" spending, the State can make the best out of a disastrous situation. Infrastructure spending and education investment increase the long-term productivity of a country.

5. We need to be smart in Europe. The beauty of EMU is that it allows us to borrow for the future, without the penalty of having your currency hammered. So we should try to co-opt some of our smaller neighbours who are having problems raising government bonds into a European EMU bond. This is where we lead the campaign for a EU sovereign bond market, whereby the combined Euro region issues debt together rather than as individual member states.

6. Ireland should borrow quickly and if we are to do it, we should make sure we raise enough money now so we don't have to go back to the market next year. The reason for acting swiftly is that if the global financial markets don't recover, there is a real danger that the world's bond markets won't finance us in the future.

All plans are inherently risky, but we are facing meltdown. Ireland needs strong decisive leadership now. To borrow the minister's phrase, it is his patriotic duty to act, not prevaricate. If he does so, we'll stand behind him. If not, he and his party will not recover.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: the Deel Rover on November 20, 2008, 03:24:22 PM
surely heads should be rolling with all the major banks yet they seem to think that none of it was their fault and that its all a result of the American Sub Prime market. I was reading yesterday that 3 of the large banks are going to have to write off at least 20 billion that they gave to developers and the number of developers is not large so how in fcuk could they justifiy giving out such large loans , when i went for a mortgage they wanted to know what i had for breakfast and my income was stressed test for a 2 to 3 % rate increase yet the banks gave the developers  biliions on valuations of land which  they were going to purchase and which we all know now is worth a lot lot less .
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: passedit on November 20, 2008, 09:33:42 PM
They're clutching at straws now.

Quote
Consolidation an option in bank crisis
watch Thursday, 20 November 2008 21:01

The possibility of a major consolidation of Irish banks has emerged as a solution to the banking crisis.

Tonight, the Minister For Finance is concluding a round of meetings at Farmleigh with executives from banks and building societies covered by the State guarantee scheme.

Their discussions have raised the possibility of a historic and radical overhaul of the banks.
Advertisement

The Government is understood to believe merging financial institutions is the best way forward.

After the meeting some participants believed only Bank of Ireland and AIB would remain after the shake up.

Nobody is commenting on the content of meetings tonight.

While uncertainty has reigned the bank share prices have been pushed up and down.

Investors remain in limbo as the future of shape of Irish banking remains unclear.

The one-to-one meetings come in the wake of the PricewaterhouseCooper report on the future debts and capital requirements for institutions covered.

There are six Irish financial institutions covered by the scheme, which was announced by the Government in September.

Speaking this afternoon, Minister Lenihan said he had spent the morning discussing the difficulties and the banks' plans to overcome those difficulties.

The Minister said the Government was determined to reform the banking sector and to ensure there was credit for those with small and medium sized businesses.

He would not comment on whether consolidation was on the agenda. The Minister is having further meetings on the subject this evening.

The meetings come as world markets have tumbled following sharp overnight losses on Wall Street prompted by a fresh wave of jobs cuts in the US and another gloomy economic outlook.

But Irish banks were among the few shares that rose.

That is mainly on expectations that the Government is edging closer to a refinancing deal for the institutions.

This morning the first of the lenders to meet with Minister Lenihan was the EBS.

Elsewhere, the International Monetary Fund has approved a loan of more than $2bn to Iceland to help it cope with what it has described as a banking crisis of extraordinary proportions.

Iceland asked the IMF for help after its banking system collapsed last month
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on November 20, 2008, 10:12:08 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on September 30, 2008, 10:06:53 AM
Quote from: orangeman on September 30, 2008, 09:33:28 AM
Quote from: muppet on September 30, 2008, 03:21:58 AM
Just back from the beer I mentioned earlier.

Shouldn't have gone.

From what I hear Irish banking will not be the same by lunchtime today. Better stay in bed.



Beer on a Monday night is never a good thing unless you've just won the AI - In that instance, it's almost compulsory !  ;) :D

Good news for Irish banking ?

Will UK and other governments follow suit ?

I don't know the ins and outs of it yet, but it seems to be a massive piece of bluffing by lenno - if he were ever asked to pay up, he couldn't, i suppose it depends on how long it will be before the markets either test his promise or just decide to disbelieve him.  If he has to come up with the goods, it'll be a disaster for the taxpayer.  We're currently talking about the budget from hell coming up because tax revenues are short by 7bn on estimates (you have to wonder what idiot came up with the estimates), yet the minister finds it okay to guarantee over €400Bn of loans made by banks?  If 10% go bad (probably not an unreasonable assumption) that's €40 Bn, almost our total annual budget.
It would have been a better idea to force some mergers between the banks who appeared in serious bother yesterday and the ones who just appeared in bother.
So finally the penny drops with lenno, maybe he should become a gaa fan ;) ;)

Unfortunately it's maybe too late??
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Declan on November 21, 2008, 08:54:48 AM
Lenihan is a gobshite of the highest order. 2 big banks only with "outside" private equity - Eircom anybody?

Whatever about forcing mergers between the idiots who landed us in this mess the fact that there is no upside for the taxpayer who is guaranteeing the deposits is lunacy. Also only one big insurance company as well???

Can you imagine how long the due diligence on this will take??? - Must get myself a consultancy role in that - happy days
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: tieroan on November 21, 2008, 09:03:28 AM
I have a bit of spare cash, just a few grand, at the minute. Would it be a good time to buy shares in AIB or BOI?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Main Street on November 21, 2008, 11:49:07 AM
Quote from: muppet on November 20, 2008, 03:22:55 PM
I don't particularly like McWilliams but it is hard to argue with his article yesterday:

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/act-now-minister-or-we-will-all-live-to-regret-it-1544060.html (http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/act-now-minister-or-we-will-all-live-to-regret-it-1544060.html)

[b]Act now, minister, or we will all live to regret it[/b]

Wednesday November 19 2008
"Any recapitalisation must also come with debt forgiveness for first-time buyers and the hundreds of thousands in negative equity.

There will be no recovery if an entire generation is burdened with enormous mortgage debts on houses that will not recover in value for years.

Many might argue that this penalises those who didn't get involved in the property madness. This is true, but there are things that we must do in emergencies, however unpalatable"


I didn't expect McWilliams to come out with this proposal. i'd hope he gets on his soapbox and shouts it out.
Though it is not his own idea.
The anti deregulation economists have been crying out for this since Freddie May collapse, why write off Wall st debts with Bn's taxpayer money which has no effect on the people who are struggling?
Capital can be put into the banks from the bottom up and write off a portion of first time buyers overpriced mortgage.

I think it's fair enough, people bought house at overpriced values, this method would bring it down for first buyers to something more realistic.



Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Lone Shark on November 22, 2008, 12:37:45 PM
Quote from: Main Street on November 21, 2008, 11:49:07 AM
Quote from: muppet on November 20, 2008, 03:22:55 PM
I don't particularly like McWilliams but it is hard to argue with his article yesterday:

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/act-now-minister-or-we-will-all-live-to-regret-it-1544060.html (http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/act-now-minister-or-we-will-all-live-to-regret-it-1544060.html)

[b]Act now, minister, or we will all live to regret it[/b]

Wednesday November 19 2008
"Any recapitalisation must also come with debt forgiveness for first-time buyers and the hundreds of thousands in negative equity.

There will be no recovery if an entire generation is burdened with enormous mortgage debts on houses that will not recover in value for years.

Many might argue that this penalises those who didn't get involved in the property madness. This is true, but there are things that we must do in emergencies, however unpalatable"


I didn't expect McWilliams to come out with this proposal. i'd hope he gets on his soapbox and shouts it out.
Though it is not his own idea.
The anti deregulation economists have been crying out for this since Freddie May collapse, why write off Wall st debts with Bn's taxpayer money which has no effect on the people who are struggling?
Capital can be put into the banks from the bottom up and write off a portion of first time buyers overpriced mortgage.

I think it's fair enough, people bought house at overpriced values, this method would bring it down for first buyers to something more realistic.


If they do that, there isn't a flight that would take me out of the country quick enough. I've paid taxes for all kinds of waste so far, but the idea of savings that I've worked hundreds of extra hours for being used to compensate people who bought houses they couldn't afford would be the final straw. Nobody forced anyone to buy a house in this country. Renting was extremely reasonable, there was no shortage of supply, some people just weren't able to resist buying their "dream home" despite the fact that it was way out of their price range.

I'd have nothing but sympathy for someone who borrowed within their means (a mortgage of no more than 3.5 times the first annual income not including overtime plus 1.5 times the second, having saved a deposit of at least 10% of the cost of the house plus the stamp) and has suddenly lost their job, but all these people who were working low paid jobs but still insisted on borrowing 300k or more, that was just lunacy. The fact that the bank gave it to them means that the banks officials should suffer, but not that the borrowers were blameless. My bank cold called me looking to sell me loans and mortgages several times, but I knew that I wasn't in a position to commit 50% of my wage to mortgage payment. I never begrudged all those who benefitted from their profligacy when house prices were going up, why should I then bail out the last layer of participants in the nationwide pyramid scheme when the arse finally fell out of it?

This country and all who sail in her can feck off if my they think that an appropriate reward for people who stood by and simply worked away, while countless others were looking for the quick buck that endless house prices rises appeared to offer, is a hand dipped into their pocket to keep everyone else in the lifestyle to which they've become accustomed. Now if you want to talk about penalising those who coined it on the way up, such as everyone who sold a house between 2003 and 2006, then by all means - but this is Ireland, the fair solution will never be taken when you can just penalise those who had sense. Equally, if you want to change the bankruptcy laws so that someone who can't pay the mortgage simply has to give up their house and savings but can then walk away and begin again renting like the rest of us, then that would be fine too. Not the rest of us continuing to leave in low grade rented accomodation, all because our taxes are high to subsidise those who bought nice places they couldn't afford.  

I'm sorry if this comes across as harsh or unfeeling, but anyone who did even a modicum of research on the way up should have known that some fall in house prices was possible. Those who could afford it anyway don't need help, and those who couldn't be bothered finding out that basic fact don't deserve it.  
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: pintsofguinness on November 22, 2008, 12:45:27 PM
Quote"Any recapitalisation must also come with debt forgiveness for first-time buyers and the hundreds of thousands in negative equity.

There will be no recovery if an entire generation is burdened with enormous mortgage debts on houses that will not recover in value for years.

Many might argue that this penalises those who didn't get involved in the property madness. This is true, but there are things that we must do in emergencies, however unpalatable"
WHAT?!

WHAT!

Excellent rebuttal lone shark, I would have just said ARE THEY JOKING?!  They can go f**k themselves!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: ardal on November 22, 2008, 01:31:39 PM
Listening to FG national conference on rte on line.

Fianna Gael are going to win the next election (apparently), because Fianna Fael have run the country into the grounds and caused the crisis. Is there much that FF could have done to soften the crisis blow (ignoring daft mortgage agreements)?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on November 22, 2008, 01:37:07 PM
Quote from: ardal on November 22, 2008, 01:31:39 PM
Listening to FG national conference on rte on line.

Fianna Gael are going to win the next election (apparently), because Fianna Fael have run the country into the grounds and caused the crisis. Is there much that FF could have doen to soften the crisis blow (ignoring daft mortgage agreements)?
don't start me - they were an absolute disaster, bertie (god love him) was the absolutely worst person we could possibly have had in charge for the past 10yrs.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: ardal on November 22, 2008, 01:43:03 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on November 22, 2008, 01:37:07 PM
Quote from: ardal on November 22, 2008, 01:31:39 PM
Listening to FG national conference on rte on line.

Fianna Gael are going to win the next election (apparently), because Fianna Fael have run the country into the grounds and caused the crisis. Is there much that FF could have doen to soften the crisis blow (ignoring daft mortgage agreements)?
don't start me - they were an absolute disaster, bertie (god love him) was the absolutely worst person we could possibly have had in charge for the past 10yrs.

Ok Start. Which Irish politician would have done anything differently; I'll accept "unsupported fact", in your argument
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: the Deel Rover on November 22, 2008, 01:55:52 PM
Quote from: Lone Shark on November 22, 2008, 12:37:45 PM
Quote from: Main Street on November 21, 2008, 11:49:07 AM
Quote from: muppet on November 20, 2008, 03:22:55 PM
I don't particularly like McWilliams but it is hard to argue with his article yesterday:

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/act-now-minister-or-we-will-all-live-to-regret-it-1544060.html (http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/act-now-minister-or-we-will-all-live-to-regret-it-1544060.html)

[b]Act now, minister, or we will all live to regret it[/b]

Wednesday November 19 2008
"Any recapitalisation must also come with debt forgiveness for first-time buyers and the hundreds of thousands in negative equity.

There will be no recovery if an entire generation is burdened with enormous mortgage debts on houses that will not recover in value for years.

Many might argue that this penalises those who didn't get involved in the property madness. This is true, but there are things that we must do in emergencies, however unpalatable"


I didn't expect McWilliams to come out with this proposal. i'd hope he gets on his soapbox and shouts it out.
Though it is not his own idea.
The anti deregulation economists have been crying out for this since Freddie May collapse, why write off Wall st debts with Bn's taxpayer money which has no effect on the people who are struggling?
Capital can be put into the banks from the bottom up and write off a portion of first time buyers overpriced mortgage.

I think it's fair enough, people bought house at overpriced values, this method would bring it down for first buyers to something more realistic.


If they do that, there isn't a flight that would take me out of the country quick enough. I've paid taxes for all kinds of waste so far, but the idea of savings that I've worked hundreds of extra hours for being used to compensate people who bought houses they couldn't afford would be the final straw. Nobody forced anyone to buy a house in this country. Renting was extremely reasonable, there was no shortage of supply, some people just weren't able to resist buying their "dream home" despite the fact that it was way out of their price range.

I'd have nothing but sympathy for someone who borrowed within their means (a mortgage of no more than 3.5 times the first annual income not including overtime plus 1.5 times the second, having saved a deposit of at least 10% of the cost of the house plus the stamp) and has suddenly lost their job, but all these people who were working low paid jobs but still insisted on borrowing 300k or more, that was just lunacy. The fact that the bank gave it to them means that the banks officials should suffer, but not that the borrowers were blameless. My bank cold called me looking to sell me loans and mortgages several times, but I knew that I wasn't in a position to commit 50% of my wage to mortgage payment. I never begrudged all those who benefitted from their profligacy when house prices were going up, why should I then bail out the last layer of participants in the nationwide pyramid scheme when the arse finally fell out of it?

This country and all who sail in her can feck off if my they think that an appropriate reward for people who stood by and simply worked away, while countless others were looking for the quick buck that endless house prices rises appeared to offer, is a hand dipped into their pocket to keep everyone else in the lifestyle to which they've become accustomed. Now if you want to talk about penalising those who coined it on the way up, such as everyone who sold a house between 2003 and 2006, then by all means - but this is Ireland, the fair solution will never be taken when you can just penalise those who had sense. Equally, if you want to change the bankruptcy laws so that someone who can't pay the mortgage simply has to give up their house and savings but can then walk away and begin again renting like the rest of us, then that would be fine too. Not the rest of us continuing to leave in low grade rented accomodation, all because our taxes are high to subsidise those who bought nice places they couldn't afford.  

I'm sorry if this comes across as harsh or unfeeling, but anyone who did even a modicum of research on the way up should have known that some fall in house prices was possible. Those who could afford it anyway don't need help, and those who couldn't be bothered finding out that basic fact don't deserve it.  


Your absolutely spot on there Lone shark no one was forced to go out and buy a house i know the banks have a lot to answer for for giving out the money so easily yet peope have to realaise that  it was their choice to purchase their property no one forced a gun to their heads to make them buy it. I purchased a house that i could afford the reason been at the time there was very little difference between renting one and the mortgage repayments and i'm glad i did however i had to be realastic a t the time i'm sure i could have gotten more money to buy a more expensive one but i decided against it because i was happy with my lot and that i would still have a quality of life after my mortgage payment went through.     
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Lone Shark on November 22, 2008, 03:01:52 PM
Quote from: ardal on November 22, 2008, 01:31:39 PM
Listening to FG national conference on rte on line.

Fianna Gael are going to win the next election (apparently), because Fianna Fael have run the country into the grounds and caused the crisis. Is there much that FF could have done to soften the crisis blow (ignoring daft mortgage agreements)?

Ample.

(1) Everyone's talking about loosening the fiscal purse strings to compensate for the downturn, but while everyone likes to talk Keynesian when the bad times hit, these people are nowhere to be found when it's moolah all round. We're going to have a minimum 8% budget deficit next year - pray tell, why then did we not have at least 8% budget surpluses in the good times to pay for it? Because that would be less easy than just showering money all round.

(2) When the money was plentiful, no-one cared about waste. Now some aspects of waste have become so embedded that we can't get rid of them.

(3) Implement the Hanley report, we'd have some chance of decent medical services. Not close to everyone, but at least they'd exist.

(4) Implement the Bacon report and we would have deflated the housing bubble a little bit. Tax the living bejeesus out of flippers and specuvestors and we would have deflated it a lot more.

(5) Take real control of the banks. Lending was out of control, but neither the Central Bank nor the Financial regulator did anything. If they won't do their job, put someone in there who will.

(6) Use tax incentives to encourage entrepreneurial activity, export led manufacturing and services, research and development and basically all the things that would pay our way in the world. Not building ten times as many houses as we need in Longford, Leitrim and Cavan.

(7) Ensure that all public service pay negotiations factored in pension benefits, and ensure that benchmarking was two way - wages could go down as well as up. Mine have. Why shouldn't the equivalent civil servant?

(8) Do more to aid national transport than just building roads. Give people an option for when petrol becomes too expensive.

(9) Penalise corruption at all levels of public office to ensure good governance into the future.

(10) When the downturn hits, create a real and meaningful plan for where we want to be in five years, how we're going to get there and what steps will be involved along the way. Explain how any cuts/tax hikes fit into that plan, how the pain is shared across the board, and how we're all working together to actually get somewhere as a country. Not just wildly hack across the board and tell the people that "it'll all be fine, now go do your Christmas shopping as normal. Confidence and world markets are the only problem, we'll be grand in time. Somehow."

There's ten things, and not one of them cost a penny, simply a case of using existing revenue more wisely.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on November 22, 2008, 03:58:11 PM
Quote from: ardal on November 22, 2008, 01:43:03 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on November 22, 2008, 01:37:07 PM
Quote from: ardal on November 22, 2008, 01:31:39 PM
Listening to FG national conference on rte on line.

Fianna Gael are going to win the next election (apparently), because Fianna Fael have run the country into the grounds and caused the crisis. Is there much that FF could have doen to soften the crisis blow (ignoring daft mortgage agreements)?
don't start me - they were an absolute disaster, bertie (god love him) was the absolutely worst person we could possibly have had in charge for the past 10yrs.

Ok Start. Which Irish politician would have done anything differently; I'll accept "unsupported fact", in your argument
can't be bothered really, i have went through the various arguments too many times in the past, basically, Ahern's style of negotiation was to give everybody what they asked for, resulting in a massively bloated publi sector that we can't afford.  FF in general should have retained the initial bacon recommendations (which they initially implemented, but then bert's builder mates told him it was bad), there were many, many steps they could have taken to take the heat out of the property market, but again they were afraid to tamper with the market until it was too late.  The steps would have been mainly though tax and regulation.
I'm not saying that FG wouldn't have done the same (i believe they would have), but that wasn't your intial question.
Title: Re: The Big Bluff called
Post by: passedit on November 24, 2008, 08:47:22 AM
Bailout for Bank of Ireland
QuoteAine Coffey

THE Irish government has agreed to take part in a €3 billion (£2 billion) bailout of Bank of Ireland that will be led by private equity. The deal would be the first state aid for an Irish bank.

This week a number of private-equity groups will make proposals to BoI. A condition of the government cash injection will be that new investors are locked in for a set time to ensure they don't try to sell quickly and make a big profit.

Names already linked with a potential investment include Cardinal Asset Management, an Irish investment firm, Sandler O'Neill, Texas Pacific Group and JC Flowers.

Ireland was one of the first countries to respond to the credit crisis with a guarantee for bank liabilities worth some €440 billion, but until now it has not bailed out or nationalised any banks, and they have not raised equity themselves.
Related Links

    * Bank of Ireland confirms bid approach

    * Post Office in talks with Bank of Ireland

Bank of Ireland revealed on Friday it had received unsolicited approaches from several unnamed parties seeking to invest in the group, but said no decision had been made.

Analysts say BoI will need to mollify investors concerned the government is entertaining talks with private-equity groups without consultation.

"The way they are going about it completely undermines the stock exchange," said one investment manager.

"To treat shareholders like this is appalling. If there is an equity rating going on shareholders should be consulted."

Bank of Ireland is 70% owned by overseas institutional investors, with about 10% owned by domestic institutions.

The news came as it emerged that Anglo Irish Bank had secured commitments for a capital-raising exercise believed to be in excess of €1 billion. The bank expects the issue to close early next year.

It is understood that in a lengthy meeting on Thursday night Anglo told Brian Lenihan, the Irish finance minister, it was in a strong position to pursue a course as an independent institution, and it could find enough private capital to bolster its balance sheet. Anglo has retained Morgan Stanley to help it source capital.

Both Anglo and Allied Irish Banks are pushing hard to go it alone as the government attempts to drive consolidation in the Irish banking sector.

Irish Life & Permanent is also keen to stay independent and said on Friday it was in merger talks with EBS. The merging of Permanent TSB, its banking arm, and EBS is believed to have been agreed in principle.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Declan on November 24, 2008, 10:47:33 AM
Excellent posts Lone Shark - I'll vote for you!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: pintsofguinness on November 24, 2008, 09:07:19 PM
Just reading Darling's proposals for over here and all I can say is what an absoloute pack of idiots there are in charge in both the UK and Ireland.  It would be funny if it wasn't so serious!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Donagh on November 24, 2008, 09:54:30 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on November 24, 2008, 09:07:19 PM
Just reading Darling's proposals for over here and all I can say is what an absoloute pack of idiots there are in charge in both the UK and Ireland.  It would be funny if it wasn't so serious!

I thought they were quite good. More money for pensioners, families and children - can't complain with that.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Minder on November 24, 2008, 10:04:51 PM
Where do people think this money is going to come from? The fairies?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: pintsofguinness on November 24, 2008, 10:06:34 PM
Quote from: Donagh on November 24, 2008, 09:54:30 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on November 24, 2008, 09:07:19 PM
Just reading Darling's proposals for over here and all I can say is what an absoloute pack of idiots there are in charge in both the UK and Ireland.  It would be funny if it wasn't so serious!

I thought they were quite good. More money for pensioners, families and children - can't complain with that.
Aye, you spinning for labour now too  :P
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: pintsofguinness on November 24, 2008, 10:11:17 PM
Quote from: Minder on November 24, 2008, 10:04:51 PM
Where do people think this money is going to come from? The fairies?
Well I'm no expert but if they're going to raise National INsurance to pay for a VAT cut that few have the money to take advantage of they may as well do nothing. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Donagh on November 24, 2008, 10:48:18 PM
Quote from: Minder on November 24, 2008, 10:04:51 PM
Where do people think this money is going to come from? The fairies?

Are you asking that question or answering it?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Donagh on November 24, 2008, 10:49:58 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on November 24, 2008, 10:06:34 PM
Quote from: Donagh on November 24, 2008, 09:54:30 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on November 24, 2008, 09:07:19 PM
Just reading Darling's proposals for over here and all I can say is what an absoloute pack of idiots there are in charge in both the UK and Ireland.  It would be funny if it wasn't so serious!

I thought they were quite good. More money for pensioners, families and children - can't complain with that.
Aye, you spinning for labour now too  :P

Taxing the high earners as well. Been waiting over ten years for Labour to do something constructive and it takes a world wide recession to force them into it. Better late than never.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Donagh on November 24, 2008, 10:56:33 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on November 24, 2008, 10:11:17 PM
Quote from: Minder on November 24, 2008, 10:04:51 PM
Where do people think this money is going to come from? The fairies?
Well I'm no expert but if they're going to raise National INsurance to pay for a VAT cut that few have the money to take advantage of they may as well do nothing. 


According a Guardian report I was reading, our house will be hit hardest with the increased NI contributions but I've no problem with that if the money is spent caring for the old and the young.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: pintsofguinness on November 24, 2008, 11:12:03 PM
That's great news Donagh, you're in a relatively secure job. I didn't borrow what I couldn't pay back, I was sensible, I work 9 or 10 hours a day to pay my way, I might be out of a job by Christmas yet I'm expected to pay for the people who were irresponsible and greedy.  I'll be ripped off on heating, electric petrol etc but all is well because if I buy a flat screen TV I'll save a couple of pound and when I lose my job I can look forward to picking up £40.00 a week. 
So while it might make you feel warm inside to be helping out the young and old (which is nice in theory) it really doesn't help my worry, or the people like me. 

I'm not sure why the well off in society should be called upon to pay for the greedy and lazy either.  Pensioners deserve all they can get though, they've paid their taxes all their lives probably.  Unfortunately there will be no one to pay my pension or yours.

I'm not sure where you've picked up that family and children are getting more money?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Main Street on November 25, 2008, 12:36:49 AM
Quote from: Lone Shark on November 22, 2008, 12:37:45 PM
I'm sorry if this comes across as harsh or unfeeling, but anyone who did even a modicum of research on the way up should have known that some fall in house prices was possible. Those who could afford it anyway don't need help, and those who couldn't be bothered finding out that basic fact don't deserve it.  
How can you be so sure.
People wanted a place to live. The longer they waited the more expensive houses got. And then the so called soft landing ::)
No harm to set up a scheme to look at the situation of first time buyers.

Governments around Europe are recapatilising motgage lenders by extra State borrowing or using taxpayers money, to litterly absorb the bad debts of the banks.   
The severe losses endured by mortgage lenders like Irish Life Permanent,  Royal bank of Scotland, Bradford & Bingley,  Hypo Real estate Germany were in the derivitives market.
The State has to get some assets for its capatalising, why should those assets be  a share in absorbing the bad debts which have a dubious value.
Why can't the government instead take over directly the mortgages of first time buyers and still recapatalise the banks at the same time.
Doesn't mean the morgage is written off. Actually taking direct control over a segment of the house owner mortgages.  State provision of mortgages is practiced in Scandanavian countries with modest profitibility.

While Banks and investors get all the benefit of socialization around the rest of Europe, at best the first time buyer possibly can apply for a temporary deferment with their payments if they fall behind in certain situations in certain countries.








Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on November 25, 2008, 12:41:11 AM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on November 24, 2008, 11:12:03 PMI'm not sure why the well off in society should be called upon to pay for the greedy and lazy either.  Pensioners deserve all they can get though, they've paid their taxes all their lives probably.  Unfortunately there will be no one to pay my pension or yours.


How do you know the pensioners weren't lazy and greedy too?  Maybe that's why they can't provide for themselves now ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Lone Shark on November 26, 2008, 12:43:53 AM
Quote from: Main Street on November 25, 2008, 12:36:49 AM
Quote from: Lone Shark on November 22, 2008, 12:37:45 PM
I'm sorry if this comes across as harsh or unfeeling, but anyone who did even a modicum of research on the way up should have known that some fall in house prices was possible. Those who could afford it anyway don't need help, and those who couldn't be bothered finding out that basic fact don't deserve it.  
How can you be so sure.
People wanted a place to live. The longer they waited the more expensive houses got. And then the so called soft landing ::)
No harm to set up a scheme to look at the situation of first time buyers.

People wanted a place to live - no, not correct. People need a place to live. However people WANTED somewhere with all the trimmings, and to be able to brag to the others down the pub about how their house had gained €50k since buying it off the plans, they WANTED to use the shagging thing as an ATM to buy a load of stuff that they couldn't afford. They WANTED the warm fuzzy feeling of owning their own gaff, even if they hadn't done the appropriate groundwork to deserve it. (After all, very few of these people in bother are the ones who had saved up 20% of the cost themselves) I wanted somewhere to live, and I had access to no more information than anyone else in this country. I saved like a dog to get together a deposit of around 20% of the price, and then I crunched the numbers (back in 2003 mind, before things even got really crazy) and I realised that this country was bananas. All across the globe, for the past 400 years or so, an average house has cost 3.5 times an average wage. The graph has gone up and down at various times, but there is data for the UK, Holland and Germany going back hundreds of years and it's incredible how prices always revert to that mean. Now I will accept that the two income family is a relatively new phenomenon, but when one factors in childcare and/or career break at key mortgage paying times, that's maybe a case for 4.5 - at most. Loopers in this country thought nothing of paying ten times the average industrial wage for a three bed semi-d in honest to Christ RATOATH!!!!!!  :'( :'( An average house in Ireland will revert to somewhere in the vicinity of €170k and anyone who paid twice and three times that does not deserve to have access to credit because they simply can't handle it.

I don't mean to be so harsh because it's pretty clear that you're on a big mortgage now and no doubt well into negative equity, but the fact stands - I have plenty of scope on my credit card to buy something I can't afford, but I don't do it because I think through the consequences of my actions and anybody who didn't do that basic check with a housing purchase does not deserve to keep the dwelling. Of course nobody should be made homeless, but the most unfair, regressive and in my mind immoral subsidy of them all right now would be to try and keep eejit first time buyers in houses that they can't afford. There are four siblings in the shark's family and not one of us are on big money - one is a student, three have middling to low salaries and all four of us rent. The idea that three of the four of us should pay taxes and the student should have to work weekends and/or holidays to pay his registration fee is one thing - however the idea that that money would be used to subsidise some couple who got greedy and bought a €400k house just because their mammy kept telling them that "rent is dead money" is nothing short of kleptocracy and I'm not lying - I will leave the country rather than pay it.

I've tolerated waste, I've tolerated all sorts of nonsense - and despite all this I have declared every freelance article and every bit of cash income I've ever got to the taxman. Friends and family alike have looked at me all kinds of skew ways when I've gone out of my way to point out to the tax man that I got €40 last week for writing a piece for a local paper, but I couldn't have it any other way. I hate the idea of robbing the state, even if those charged with spending the money don't think anything of it. However I will draw the line at this. Nobody should go homeless, but those who bought what they can't afford should have the honesty and the morality to either work harder and pay their way, or else rent like the rest of us mere mortals.

I'm almost thankful that the exchequer is too broke to go ahead and bail out a single homeowner, never mind thousands of them.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Main Street on November 26, 2008, 02:15:31 AM
Quote from: Lone Shark on November 26, 2008, 12:43:53 AM
I don't mean to be so harsh because it's pretty clear that you're on a big mortgage now and no doubt well into negative equity,

My personal circumstances are the opposite actually, mortgage paid off and a natural tendency to save before spending.
When we bought our house, its value was about 4 years of a basic take home teachers salary.

Negative equity is not the problem if people have the income, or the possibility to increase income, or possibilities to reduce expenditure.
The problem for people is paying back the mortgage after losing their job or a proportion of their income.
Thousands will be falling into that hole over the next 12 months.
It is besides the point that I happen to believe that young people starting out in life together shouldn't be the subject of false speculative property and land values which has forced them to undertake larger and larger mortgages.
There are enough problems in life. Housing is a basic right which should be affordable, not a slavery.

QuoteI'm almost thankful that the exchequer is too broke to go ahead and bail out a single homeowner, never mind thousands of them.
But bailing out those who never lose, wouldn't cause a moments grief?
Even though the exchequer is broke, the Government will still borrow billions to absorb bad debts of the banks.
Will devalue the whole wealth of the country and increase the national debt (taxpayers burden) with no tangible growth in assets or productive base.
And now flying around are insane  ideas to throw the pensions money into that mix.
In the UK, billions worth of pension funds have already been gambled away.


Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: stephenite on November 26, 2008, 02:26:48 AM
Great posts Lone Shark and Main Street - not sure who I agree with, the notion of throwing money at those who took out big mortgages is something I find particularly distasteful, and I agree to a certain extent that those people did nothing to research properly their financial situation before signing.

However the reality is that a lot of people saw what the others were doing and the banks were throwing money at them - now rightly or wrongly the banks have to take a large portion of the blame - they were giving money out left, right and centre to those they knew couldn't afford it if the economy went south, of course this isn't an Irish phenomenon and probably one of the main reasons the world is in the state it's in.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Lone Shark on November 26, 2008, 10:20:04 AM
Quote from: Main Street on November 26, 2008, 02:15:31 AM
The problem for people is paying back the mortgage after losing their job or a proportion of their income.
Thousands will be falling into that hole over the next 12 months.
It is besides the point that I happen to believe that young people starting out in life together shouldn't be the subject of false speculative property and land values which has forced them to undertake larger and larger mortgages.
There are enough problems in life. Housing is a basic right which should be affordable, not a slavery.

I've lost a huge chunk of my income over the last few months - I too was made redundant and am now picking up what bits I can get. However - and here's the crux of it - I'm still paying my way and putting an extra little bit aside every month because I've got plenty of little part time bits going across several fields. However that only works because I'm working well in excess of 55 or 60 hours per week. Now how fair is it that the extra money I earn, instead of going towards the house I want to buy some day, gets spent on taxes to pay for people who bought houses they couldn't afford?

As for housing being affordable, it is. We all have a basic human right to shelter - but not home ownership. I strongly suspect that you're not distinguishing between those two. Renting is extremely affordable these days - however some people find renting distasteful, and we are apparently supposed to subsidise that. I vehemently disagree. Foreclose on those who cannot afford the properties they bought, change the bankruptcy laws so that they get a fresh start, and ensure that they get rent allowance if necessary. Job done, no moral hazard, no-one going homeless.

As for being forced to buy, well to be honest I'm disappointed that you resorted to that - no-one was forced to buy. I'll agree that some people were pressured into it by bullying and brash friends and relatives, but no more than I was I'm guessing.

Quote from: Main Street on November 26, 2008, 02:15:31 AM
But bailing out those who never lose, wouldn't cause a moments grief?
Even though the exchequer is broke, the Government will still borrow billions to absorb bad debts of the banks.
Will devalue the whole wealth of the country and increase the national debt (taxpayers burden) with no tangible growth in assets or productive base.
And now flying around are insane  ideas to throw the pensions money into that mix.
In the UK, billions worth of pension funds have already been gambled away.

With all due respect, you're presuming my opinion on this matter. I personally would have let the banks fall some months ago and been preparing the groundwork to let the post offices do the day to day banking in the short term while banks like Rabo and Santander come in and pick up the retail networks, after guaranteeing the savings of individual investors. However by essentially throwing the full weight of the state behind the banks, we have backed ourselves into a corner. As such something has to be done here. I hate the idea of a bailout, I think it's appalling that public sector pensions may be used and I would love nothing more than to see the likes of Eugene Sheehy and Sean Fitzpatrick up on criminal charges for fraud (we predict a soft landing - yeah right, sure you do!!), however we are now in the situation we are in. Once we guaranteed the banks' debt, we essentially went all in. It was immoral and, I suspect, unconstitutional, but it has been done. What we need to do now is get the best value we can, get an honest look at where the banks books sit, bring the full rigours of the law to bear on those who are indebted to an extent that they will never recover, and let the property crash really happen and get to the bottom so we can start our economy again with the lessons in our mind and a much lower cost base. This drip drip effect kills us - we know where properties are going, so let's get there.

The banks will make it back - the government just needs to be sure that the taxpayer does, and not continue with this nonsense of socialising the losses before privatising just as the profitable days lurk around the corner. Current shareholders should get f*** all since they are equally culpable in this mess, and get a central banker and regulator in place with actual balls this time.

However one last round of protecting those who have at the expense of the prudent who haven't would be a clear indication that the priority of this government and this state is the usual looking after themselves. If that's our priorities, we are FUBAR'erd and there is no point in staying here because we'll be a backwater corrupt cesspit like Romania or Bulgaria in no time.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: behind the wire on November 26, 2008, 11:02:48 AM
what he said. very honest and well thought out post lone shark. totally agree.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Lecale2 on November 26, 2008, 12:57:32 PM
How are Iceland getting on? They have been out of the news here for a month or more now. How is the financial crisis affectting the man on the Reykjavík omnibus?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Main Street on November 26, 2008, 02:36:01 PM
Quote from: Lone Shark on November 26, 2008, 10:20:04 AM

As for housing being affordable, it is. We all have a basic human right to shelter - but not home ownership. I strongly suspect that you're not distinguishing between those two. Renting is extremely affordable these days - however some people find renting distasteful, and we are apparently supposed to subsidise that. I vehemently disagree. Foreclose on those who cannot afford the properties they bought, change the bankruptcy laws so that they get a fresh start, and ensure that they get rent allowance if necessary. Job done, no moral hazard, no-one going homeless.
Just in case, I didn't indicate anywhere that a mortgage be written off.
At most, I indicated that a slice be taken off, to take away the sting.
The State buys out the mortgage, values the property, adjusts the mortgage and manage the "clients".
As I said, similar schemes have been in operation in other countries and have proved modestly profitable.
A proven modestly profitable State scheme looks an attractive option to me.

Alternatively the State can also move in and scoop up defaulted/risky housing at bottom prices, capatalising the lenders according to realistic values. The State can re-mortgage the property to its  "clients" according to the realistic value.
Let the lenders write off the inflated value. That would certainly shift the balance of power but we all know the reality is that the State is the cart.
As it stands now, the State is getting in position to absorb the write offs to keep the lenders flush.
The State, (as States do since bubbles started bursting) bail them out, still leaving the lender with all the assets.

I heard a report on the news that what businesses need are bank loans to buy stock.
Frankly I am dumbfounded that after 10 years of increased consumer debt fueled spending that so many businesses are in such a weak position.
I would have assumed that the good business years are used to eliminate debt/overdraft, pay cash on delivery for discounts, increase stock and financial/overall stability.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Maiden1 on November 26, 2008, 05:36:36 PM
What are the government meant to do? let the banks etc fail.  A lot of people seem to think f&*k it they deserve all they get.  They don't think it affects them.  Firstly if a bank fails then this directly puts thousands of people in the bank out of a job.  It stops people being able to borrow any money to buy e.g. a new car except those coming in with 15k in cash.  This puts the car dealership and all the employees out of work and potentially defaulting on there mortgages.  They all need to get the dole so that they can eat and they will also require social housing instead of at the minute paying tax.  The government is trying to stop this from happening, by guaranteeing the money in the bank, it is not giving the banks any money.  If they did not do this then they would be paying a lot more in social housing, dole and getting a lot less in revenue.

Secondly if a newly married decided to buy a house instead of renting (and renting is just paying a landlords mortgage) then you would be pretty heartless not to have any sympathy for them.  Perhaps they where naive like a lot of us but no matter how much they paid for a house they would always struggle without a job.  

Mortgage lending does need to be reformed after this, some steps I think would help would be a minimum 10% deposit on a house as 100% mortgages pose to much risk to a bank (and everyone else) in a recession.  Better rates for people taking out income protection insurance with a new mortgages.  Also at present people generally get a 2 year reduced rate then they need to re mortgage every couple of years, this should be done away with as what is happening now is that the people in negative equity can't re mortgage and end up paying much higher premiums which they then cannot afford.  When you get a mortgage it should be at whatever rate from day 1 that doesn't jump in 2 years.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: whiskeysteve on November 26, 2008, 05:38:21 PM
Breaking news on the BBC that Woolworths have gone into administration along with MFI.

Thats 26,000 jobs under threat.

Black times ahead.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Rois on November 26, 2008, 07:13:33 PM
I'm working on an administration at the minute.  The administrators were appointed on Friday.

A number of employees have been made redundant but none at the site I was responsible for thankfully.  The hardest night I've ever had in my working career was Monday when I thought I was going to have to make people redundant on Tuesday and tell them they weren't getting paid for the first three weeks of November.  

It's worse for the employee when the company goes into administration - they get statutory redundancy, yes, but only to a maximum weekly limit, and potentially not in line with what their contract of employment stipulated.  

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Smokin Joe on November 26, 2008, 08:30:20 PM
Quote from: Lone Shark on November 26, 2008, 10:20:04 AM
I too was made redundant

Didn't know that.  That's tough squire - hope all works out for you.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Donagh on November 26, 2008, 08:46:07 PM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on November 26, 2008, 05:38:21 PM
Breaking news on the BBC that Woolworths have gone into administration along with MFI.


Maybe they had their strategies all wrong:

http://www.irishnews.com/appnews/540/5860/2008/11/1/601716_362062143657NoIrishp.html (http://www.irishnews.com/appnews/540/5860/2008/11/1/601716_362062143657NoIrishp.html)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Lone Shark on November 27, 2008, 10:27:40 AM
Quote from: Smokin Joe on November 26, 2008, 08:30:20 PM
Quote from: Lone Shark on November 26, 2008, 10:20:04 AM
I too was made redundant

Didn't know that.  That's tough squire - hope all works out for you.

Twas a bit hard to take - it really was dream job country and all that, but four papers in Offaly was always a bit much. Back in the old game for now though - I must drop a line to you today actually. Minor detail which may be of interest....
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: behind the wire on November 27, 2008, 10:29:47 AM
good man shark. hope it works out for you.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Lone Shark on November 27, 2008, 10:33:28 AM
Quote from: Main Street on November 26, 2008, 02:36:01 PM
Just in case, I didn't indicate anywhere that a mortgage be written off.
At most, I indicated that a slice be taken off, to take away the sting.
The State buys out the mortgage, values the property, adjusts the mortgage and manage the "clients".
As I said, similar schemes have been in operation in other countries and have proved modestly profitable.
A proven modestly profitable State scheme looks an attractive option to me.

But essentially what you're saying is that the state should buy mortgages and immediately discount them - so who should pay for this discounting? There's just no way of squaring that circle. Also, if the state takes over mortgages, countless people would never make a mortgage payment ever again because they know well that the state won't ever be the bad guy and repossess a house.

The state being a mortgage holder would be a really bad idea in my opinion.



Quote from: Main Street on November 26, 2008, 02:36:01 PM
I heard a report on the news that what businesses need are bank loans to buy stock.
Frankly I am dumbfounded that after 10 years of increased consumer debt fueled spending that so many businesses are in such a weak position.
I would have assumed that the good business years are used to eliminate debt/overdraft, pay cash on delivery for discounts, increase stock and financial/overall stability.

That was the acceptied wisdom of the last ten years - cash was bad, leverage was good. Businesses deliberately ran their operations that way because that was considered the right way to do things. More debt, more trading - in theory.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Declan on November 27, 2008, 11:24:50 AM
Interesting piece on the ghost housing estates around Ireland on Pat Kenny this morning. Frightening stuff. Cavan, Longford with one or two houses occupied out of 50 houses. This is the reality. People saying they couldn't understand how permission was given to build them. Amazing how no one said this over the last decade isn't it?

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Billys Boots on November 27, 2008, 01:10:17 PM
I believe there are (I've been told anyway by someone in the trade) that there are over 400 new houses in Ballina (Mayo) that have never been occupied, some up to four years old.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: the Deel Rover on November 27, 2008, 01:41:41 PM
Quote from: Billys Boots on November 27, 2008, 01:10:17 PM
I believe there are (I've been told anyway by someone in the trade) that there are over 400 new houses in Ballina (Mayo) that have never been occupied, some up to four years old.

don't think there would be 400 billy there are a lot of empty house allright but i wouldn't imagine that there would be 400 . Can't think of any new estates starting the past 2 years. You could definately buy a 3 bed semi for around 150k a big drop from 220k at the height of the boom
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on November 28, 2008, 01:54:02 PM
Quote from: Lone Shark on November 27, 2008, 10:33:28 AM
Quote from: Main Street on November 26, 2008, 02:36:01 PM
Just in case, I didn't indicate anywhere that a mortgage be written off.
At most, I indicated that a slice be taken off, to take away the sting.
The State buys out the mortgage, values the property, adjusts the mortgage and manage the "clients".
As I said, similar schemes have been in operation in other countries and have proved modestly profitable.
A proven modestly profitable State scheme looks an attractive option to me.

But essentially what you're saying is that the state should buy mortgages and immediately discount them - so who should pay for this discounting? There's just no way of squaring that circle. Also, if the state takes over mortgages, countless people would never make a mortgage payment ever again because they know well that the state won't ever be the bad guy and repossess a house.

The state being a mortgage holder would be a really bad idea in my opinion.



Quote from: Main Street on November 26, 2008, 02:36:01 PM
I heard a report on the news that what businesses need are bank loans to buy stock.
Frankly I am dumbfounded that after 10 years of increased consumer debt fueled spending that so many businesses are in such a weak position.
I would have assumed that the good business years are used to eliminate debt/overdraft, pay cash on delivery for discounts, increase stock and financial/overall stability.

That was the acceptied wisdom of the last ten years - cash was bad, leverage was good. Businesses deliberately ran their operations that way because that was considered the right way to do things. More debt, more trading - in theory.

Just reading reading "Barbarians at the Gate".

We really are an incredibly stupid species.

Leveraging (leveraged buyouts to make executives and investors rich was all the rage then) caused chaos as little as 20 years ago.

This time along with the subprime crisis we had CFDs, which are still available. All cases of people being leveraged beyond logic.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Main Street on November 28, 2008, 02:10:57 PM
Quote from: Lone Shark on November 27, 2008, 10:33:28 AM

But essentially what you're saying is that the state should buy mortgages and immediately discount them - so who should pay for this discounting? There's just no way of squaring that circle. Also, if the state takes over mortgages, countless people would never make a mortgage payment ever again because they know well that the state won't ever be the bad guy and repossess a house.

The state being a mortgage holder would be a really bad idea in my opinion.

My opinions are based on observing how State owned mortgage companies manages the accounts.
And how they are profitable.
It is a misconception that they do not repossess houses whose owners who have defaulted with repayments.
Just like the State does not forget that you have to make your tax returns or not forgive those who default on taxes ;)







Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Lone Shark on November 28, 2008, 04:05:39 PM
Quote from: Main Street on November 28, 2008, 02:10:57 PM
Quote from: Lone Shark on November 27, 2008, 10:33:28 AM

But essentially what you're saying is that the state should buy mortgages and immediately discount them - so who should pay for this discounting? There's just no way of squaring that circle. Also, if the state takes over mortgages, countless people would never make a mortgage payment ever again because they know well that the state won't ever be the bad guy and repossess a house.

The state being a mortgage holder would be a really bad idea in my opinion.

My opinions are based on observing how State owned mortgage companies manages the accounts.
And how they are profitable.
It is a misconception that they do not repossess houses whose owners who have defaulted with repayments.
Just like the State does not forget that you have to make your tax returns or not forgive those who default on taxes ;)


I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that this isn't in countries where they have the same degree of clientist politics as we do here. I cannot conceive of any state agency being freed from the shackles of interfering TDs and councillors in this state, any more than I can imagine any state agency being allowed to foreclose on anyone who lost their job, even if the purchase was badly advised in the first instance.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Rois on December 04, 2008, 12:07:39 PM
BOE rate down to 2%.

Get your euro now if you need them!  Sterling weakening further perhaps?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: FermGael on December 04, 2008, 12:13:54 PM
Quote from: Rois on December 04, 2008, 12:07:39 PM
BOE rate down to 2%.

Get your euro now if you need them!  Sterling weakening further perhaps?

All ready up to 86p against sterling.
Means more trade and traffic for Enniskillen.

The Mayor of Sligo will not be happy
http://www.nwipp-newspapers.com/FH/free/299193892229496.php (http://www.nwipp-newspapers.com/FH/free/299193892229496.php)
Quote'They're Ennis-killing Us' is the bleak title of an article which appeared recently in a Sligo paper, calling for shoppers in the town to stop travelling to Fermanagh to stock up on goods.

And the call, made by the Mayor of Sligo, has angered Enniskillen Councillor, Frank Britton who has called the comments 'disingenuous'.

The article, carried in the 'Sligo Weekender', calls for people in Sligo to shop locally because of claims that jobs in the North-West are risk.

And, the Southern media have explained that the recent VAT reduction will widen the gap in prices between North and South and will lead to an even greater exodus of shoppers across the Border.

Sligo Chamber of Commerce described the new VAT gap as 'another blow to Sligo retailers'. A spokesperson for the Chamber said: "We realise that it very easy for people to cross the border, but they should remember that doing so can put local jobs at risk".

The plea was echoed by the Mayor of Sligo, Councillor Veronica Cawley, who said: "I know that in the present climate people will travel for bargains, but I would appeal to them not to spend all their money in the North."

However, Councillor Britton, from Enniskillen, has hit back at the article: "I totally reject the Mayor of Sligo's call for shoppers not to come to Enniskillen. It is an unfortunate statement from her, and the people of Sligo and other areas in the South are showing what they think of these comments by coming to Enniskillen in increasing numbers.

"Fermanagh District Council have worked hard to develop and promote Enniskillen. The edge of town stores combined with our traditionally owned businesses make this an excellent shopping town which can be enjoyed by people from all over Ireland."

The matter was reinforced at a meeting of Fermanagh District Council, when Councillor Gerry McHugh asked the Council to think about erecting more signs around Enniskillen to help visitors negotiate the town easier. The Director of Leisure, Tourism and Arts, Robert Gibson, explained a traffic management plan for the town is currently being compiled and should include details on additional signage.

Mr Britton also slammed Sligo's Mayor for ignoring the fact that for years, traders in Enniskillen had to deal with shoppers from Fermanagh flocking to the Republic when Sterling was stronger. "Border trade has always ebbed and flowed over the years," he said.
"The shoe is on the other foot now, and I feel a call like this from the Mayor of Sligo just goes against everything a free market economy tries to promote.

"People are allowed to shop wherever they want, and we have worked hard to increase trade both ways across the border," he added.

With shops in Enniskillen feeling the boom from the numbers of shoppers coming from Sligo, Cavan, Leitrim, Kildare, and even Longford and Galway, the benefits are two-fold as there are obviously huge savings to be made for the canny Southern shopper willing to travel North.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on December 11, 2008, 03:40:49 PM
Engineering firm 'lays off' staff 

The engineering company is based in Dungannon, County Tyrone
A County Tyrone engineering company has introduced a programme of temporary lay-offs for much of its workforce.

Powerscreen, which is based in Dungannon, said it made the decision due to a lack of orders.

Three hundred of the company's 485-strong workforce will be laid-off for a week on Monday 15 December.

This will be followed by another four weeks without pay in January and February. The Easter holiday week is also being brought forward to January.


Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: thebigfella on December 11, 2008, 04:12:30 PM
Quote from: orangeman on December 11, 2008, 03:40:49 PM
Engineering firm 'lays off' staff 

The engineering company is based in Dungannon, County Tyrone
A County Tyrone engineering company has introduced a programme of temporary lay-offs for much of its workforce.

Powerscreen, which is based in Dungannon, said it made the decision due to a lack of orders.

Three hundred of the company's 485-strong workforce will be laid-off for a week on Monday 15 December.

This will be followed by another four weeks without pay in January and February. The Easter holiday week is also being brought forward to January.

I've a few friends who work there, bit of a dirty act the week before christmas after being told they were safe till the end of January right up until yesterday. Technically they will not be off for 4 weeks without pay in January, as then everyone woud be entitled to ask for redundancy. I believe they have them in training at some point for a week to break it up  :-\ 

I know my friends can't wait around till Febuary to see if they have jobs or are entitled to their redundancy.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Donagh on December 11, 2008, 04:49:22 PM
Quote from: orangeman on December 11, 2008, 03:40:49 PM
Engineering firm 'lays off' staff 

The engineering company is based in Dungannon, County Tyrone
A County Tyrone engineering company has introduced a programme of temporary lay-offs for much of its workforce.

Powerscreen, which is based in Dungannon, said it made the decision due to a lack of orders.

Three hundred of the company's 485-strong workforce will be laid-off for a week on Monday 15 December.

This will be followed by another four weeks without pay in January and February. The Easter holiday week is also being brought forward to January.


Have a brother working in it as well. Was talking to him the other day and he said he'd a load of work on at the minute.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on December 11, 2008, 05:03:48 PM
Quote from: Donagh on December 11, 2008, 04:49:22 PM
Quote from: orangeman on December 11, 2008, 03:40:49 PM
Engineering firm 'lays off' staff 

The engineering company is based in Dungannon, County Tyrone
A County Tyrone engineering company has introduced a programme of temporary lay-offs for much of its workforce.

Powerscreen, which is based in Dungannon, said it made the decision due to a lack of orders.

Three hundred of the company's 485-strong workforce will be laid-off for a week on Monday 15 December.

This will be followed by another four weeks without pay in January and February. The Easter holiday week is also being brought forward to January.


Have a brother working in it as well. Was talking to him the other day and he said he'd a load of work on at the minute.

He must be one of the lucky ones. I've been talking to a few lads and they're doing nothing.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Smokin Joe on December 11, 2008, 07:12:32 PM

Quote from: orangeman on December 11, 2008, 03:40:49 PM


I know my friends can't wait around till Febuary to see if they have jobs or are entitled to their redundancy.


I think if they get less than 50% pay for 4 weeks in a row or 6 weeks in 12 the workers can automatically ask for redundancy, if they wish.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on December 12, 2008, 04:22:01 PM
$50bn fraud charge at hedge fund 

The Madoff fraud could be one of the biggest yet
The former chairman of the Nasdaq stock market has been arrested and charged with securities fraud, in what may be one of the biggest fraud cases yet.

Bernard Madoff ran a hedge fund which ran up $50bn (£33.5bn) of fraudulent losses and which he called "one big lie", prosecutors allege.

Mr Madoff is alleged to have used money from new investors to pay off existing investors in the fund.

His lawyer said he would fight to get through these "unfortunate events".

The 70-year-old has been released on $10m bail.

'Pyramid scheme'

Mr Madoff founded Bernard L.Madoff Investment Securities in 1960, but also ran a separate hedge fund business.

According to the US Attorney's criminal complaint filed in court, Mr Madoff told at least three employees on Wednesday that the hedge fund business - which served up to 25 clients and had $17.1bn of money under management - was a fraud and had been insolvent for years, losing at least $50bn.

He said he was "finished", that he had "absolutely nothing" and that "it's all just one big lie", and that it was "basically, a giant Ponzi scheme", the complaint said.

He told them that he planned to surrender to the authorities but not before he used his last $200m-$300m to pay "selected employees, family and friends".

Under a Ponzi scheme, also known as a pyramid scheme, investors are promised very high returns on their investment, while in reality early investors are paid with money collected from later investors.

On Thursday, two agents from the FBI went to his apartment.


Investors have withdrawn from hedge funds amid market volatility

According to the complaint, Mr Madoff told them he knew why they were there, and there was "no innocent explanation".

He told them he "paid investors with money that wasn't there", that he was "broke" and "insolvent", that it "could not go on" and he expected to go to jail.

Stunning fraud

If found guilty, US prosecutors say he could face up to 20 years in prison and a fine of up to $5m.

"Our complaint alleges a stunning fraud - both in terms of scope and duration," said Scott Friestad at the SEC. "We are moving quickly and decisively to stop the scheme and protect the remaining assets for investors."

Dan Horwitz, Mr Madoff's lawyer, said: "Bernard Madoff is a longstanding leader in the financial services industry. We will fight to get through this unfortunate set of events."

Many investors have been pulling money out of hedge funds in an effort to reduce their exposure to risk.

"This is a major blow to confidence that is already shattered - anyone on the fence will probably try to take their money out," said Doug Kass, president of Seabreeze Partners Management, a hedge

Title: Re: The Big Bluff Called
Post by: passedit on December 15, 2008, 10:19:51 AM
I repeat, the problem is not liquidity, it is solvency. Bank holidays still a possibility.


QuoteLenihan unveils €10bn rescue fund for banks

   
By Ailish O'Hora and Fionnan Sheahan

Monday December 15 2008

The Government last night announced a €10bn rescue fund for the banking sector.

The surprise announcement came after intense weekend talks involving senior government members and banking advisers.

In a statement last night, the Government said it may use some of the €18bn in the National Pension Reserve Fund to pump money into the ailing banking sector, alongside investment from existing shareholders and private investors.

The fund is available to the banks included in the €440bn bank guarantee scheme announced in September.

It is understood the collapse in Anglo Irish Bank's share price last week forced the Government to finally produce a recapitalisation plan. On Friday, the bank submitted a proposal that would have seen the Government guarantee an attempt by the bank to raise funds from the stock market.

Mr Lenihan said last night the Government was still considering its options on how exactly investment in the sector would be structured. If pension fund money is used, legislative changes will be made to enable cash to be released.

The statement said the Government's investment could take the form of preference shares, which would guarantee the State a dividend, or ordinary shares, which do not carry a dividend but carry voting rights.

It added that taxpayers would be safeguarded and any investment would also be made on a non-discriminatory basis, "having regard to the systemic importance of the institution, the importance of maintaining the stability of the financial system in the State, and the most effective and economical use of resources available to the State and each credit institution's particular requirement for capital".

It also said that existing shareholders are expected to have the right to subscribe for new capital on the same terms as the Government.

Mr Lenihan added that the banks will be dealt with on a case-by-case basis.

"Well, of course, some financial institutions are so embedded in our economy -- in terms of their borrowing and deposits -- that they are of systemic importance to our economy and it's very important that our banking system is seen to sustain our economy," he said.

"And if capital is required to demonstrate that confidence, capital will be provided, but on strict terms and on terms that will ensure a full return to the taxpayer and pension fund."

Last night, analysts said the statement lacked clarity and raised as many questions as it answered.

They also questioned what kind of terms and conditions would be applied to the use of the fund, considering that private equity firms typically take a short-term view on investment and look for big returns.

Fine Gael's Richard Bruton said the statement on the banks was "sketchy on detail" and added "little new" to the Government's "unconvincing plans for recapitalisation of our banks".

"Two-and-a-half months after the announcement of the banks guarantee, other countries are much further down the road in recapitalising their banks than we are, yet tonight we got another statement lacking in crucial detail," he said.

Labour Party finance spokesperson Joan Burton said the short-term goal had to be to get credit rolling to businesses.

However, the country's largest business representative group, IBEC, welcomed the announcement.

IBEC director general Turlough O'Sullivan said: "A strong and competitive banking sector is vital if Ireland is to succeed and prosper in these very challenging economic times.

"Given the unprecedented global financial turmoil and the knock-on effect that this is having on jobs and the wider economy, it is necessary for the Government to take this decisive action," he said.

It is possible emergency legislation will have to be passed this week to give effect to the recapitalisation, because the Dail is due to break until the end of January.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: mannix on December 15, 2008, 11:17:14 AM
when i look at cowen and harney i wonder where Ireland is going. I have a big decision to make in 12 months about where i will live and Ireland looks very second place at the minute. All my family are either laid off or barely hanging on, who would have thought so 12 months ago.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Lecale2 on December 15, 2008, 12:34:24 PM
It could be worse. WE could be living in Iceland.

Iceland: frozen assets
Six months ago, Iceland was one of the world's richest nations. Now it's bankrupt. AA Gill visits the first victim of the economic ice age

In the summer of 1783, there was a volcanic eruption in the southeast of Iceland that vomited lava into the Skafta river, which boiled and ran with fire like a mythological Nordic curse. The volcanic gases were toxic and poisoned animals in their byres. Seething clouds of opaque ash plumed into the sky, blotting the sun. Everything that photosynthesised withered and died. There was a famine that killed a fifth of the population — a fifth of the people who had survived the smallpox epidemic that had previously seen off a quarter of all Icelanders.

So the penury of the Icelandic banking system, the collapse of its currency, the parlous implosion of its economy that relegated it from being, per capita, the second or third richest nation in the world to being the shivering Big Issue-seller of Europe, bobbing in the queue somewhere behind Albania and Moldova, is not actually the worst thing that ever happened to this island. That would have to be the two occasions when the plague wiped out more than half of everybody. Iceland didn't have any rats, but they got Europe's worst case of bubonic deaths without them. That's unheard of. That's virtually impossible — but that's how Iceland's luck is. It's said you make your own luck; it's never said that your luck also makes you.

Iceland and Icelanders have been forged on the anvil of hard knocks. The unfair thing about this latest paper calamity is that it happened just when they thought things were going so well. There were restaurants that sold food for people who weren't hungry, there were international bars for international folk, there were boutique hotels with ambient music, and candles for smell, not illumination. Iceland was chic and cool, not just in a cold way. "This summer," a pretty girl with a red nose and a pink scarf told me, "everybody was here on a small patch of green in front of the parliament" (which itself is smaller than Elton John's guesthouse). "We came to cheer and drink, because Iceland had won a silver medal at the Olympics for handball," she said. "It was huge. We'd never won a medal before." Who came first? "Who cares? We came second. Everything was going so well."

Reykjavik is littered with the detritus and shells of things that were once going so well and now aren't going at all. Like the big four-wheel-drives, bought on a promise and the never-never. The biggest is a Babel-ish building site, palisaded by protective cranes, which was hoping to be a music hall, the Sydney Opera House of the far, far north. There is still a visitors' centre, with a girl on the phone looking for a new job. There's a toy model of what it is now unlikely to look like. You can peer through a telescope at nobody working. I watched one ancient traffic warden give a ticket to a solitary pick-up, abandoned on a patch of rutted wasteland that was going to be a smart amenity area. This was all financed by Landsbanki, one of the raiding banks that spent like mullered fishermen and borrowed like agoraphobic Vikings, who leveraged the economy into the stratosphere without a Keynesian parachute, along with every other bank in the monetarist world.

The difference here was that in every other city centre, they can run home to Daddy Government and have their gambling debts paid off. The Icelandic government is a dozen shepherds and a couple of grocers in Specsavers and M&S suits. One of the reasons they say the financial risk was so precipitous was that the entrepreneurial pool is so small. The bankers and the regulators, the ministers and the judges are all the same people — they've known each other all their lives, their wives and their children are friends, and nobody wanted to be the one who said no. And why should they?

It was all going so well.

Down by the container port, where the derricks droop idly, is a car pound the size of half a dozen football fields, circled by defunct iron boxes. It's full of hundreds, perhaps thousands of cars. Behind them, across the grey fjord, black pumice crags are scarred with snow. The cars are going nowhere, dumped here at the end of the world: a great, windswept, conceptual monument to the hubris of Mammon, laughed at by black-backed gulls. These testaments to excess are now the most tasteless things to be seen in. They call the puttering Range Rovers "Game-Overs".

Further down the shore is a speculation of modern flats, expensive, insubstantial urban penthouses that may well remain empty for ever. A young man passing by, dressed in the winter uniform of Icelandic youth — skinny jeans, T-shirt with ironic postmodern slogan, Converses and a bit of a useless scarf, hunched shoulders and a general air of thermometer-denial and hungover insouciance — stops and laughs. "Who did we ever think was going to live here? Now we look back and it seems mad. Anyone could have told them. I could have told them."

Outside Reykjavik, there are suburban developments for new commuter suburbs. They put in roads and street lights but the houses have yet to be built, or stand blankly unfinished. Outside, a little girl plays in the gloaming with her sheepdog. It's a strangely surreal image: the silent cul-de-sac, like a model of the middle-American 'burbs, with just this child, a character snatched from an Edward Hopper painting.

Further along a road called End of the World we find a self-employed electrician. His company is called "Why Not Me". When he has finished here, he is going abroad to find work — "Poland, probably" — and he smiles a crooked Icelandic smile. It's a joke. There used to be lots of Poles here doing the dirty bits of the economic soft times. Now they have all gone home because the Icelandic krona has become shrapnel in the explosion of free markets.

Kaupthing, Landsbanki and Glitnir sound like elf characters from The Lord of the Rings, and there is an element of fairy-tale comeuppance to these three backwater banks. Only when you're shown their headquarters do you realise how bizarre and unworldly their success was. They look like small city shops, branches of Bradford & Bingley. One of them was run from the floor above a fast-food restaurant. As with every great disaster the world over, the moment after it happened, the scales fell from every eye and all could see that it was inevitable. Where were the white-collar jobs for the commute back from the brave new garden suburbs to come from? Where was the black-tie audience for the opera? How could Iceland have the sharpest cashiers in the world? How could this nation sustain just two main industries: cod-fishing and international high finance? And, most importantly, most damningly, how did they ever think they could buck the Icelandic luck? Now everyone looks back at the road they've just travelled and wonders why none of them mentioned it was made of marzipan and Rolexes.

The act that tipped the last Icelandic bank off the edge of the cliff was delivered by Gordon Brown, who froze Icelandic assets in the UK using our new, gleaming anti-terrorist legislation. The Icelanders mind that — they're hurt by that. You see, they always imagined they were one of us, not one of them. But Gordon needed to do something cheap to look competent, so he beat up a smaller kid. Not just a bit of a slap, but a vicious kicking. Showing off to impress the girls. He would never have started it if the banks had been German or French, or even from Liechtenstein.

The Icelanders mind about the terrorist thing. They don't even have an army. They barely have a jail: it's more of a drop-in centre. The police drive you home if you're too drunk. This is the most liberal, reasonable, hard-working, decent, moral, amusing and well-educated people on the Continent; a nation who are temperamentally the furthest away from terrorism. Remember that about Brown — the man who said he wanted to prevent the export of terrorism. Remember it when he puts on his Save the World, Mr International Harmony hat. He put an ally into intensive care for the sake of a headline and three points in a weekend poll. Perhaps he didn't notice. Perhaps he was looking through his glass eye.

Let's just be clear about what Iceland really is. Most people think it's the size of the Isle of Wight with the population of, say, Holland. It's bigger than Hungary, bigger than South Korea, which has a population of 50m. There are just over 300,000 people in Iceland. So that's a country the size of Portugal with the population of Bradford. Those are Mr Brown's terrorists.

Iceland imagined that Europe and America would help it out. After all, it has always helped us out. Keflavik was a vital Nato base between the east coast of America and the west coast of Europe in the cold war. We were all in this together. Except, as they were to learn, we were only in it together if we were fat enough to buy ourselves the solution. The Russians bailed Iceland out: Reykjavik could be a very useful place to launder money and c**k a snook. And the Faroe Islands, bless them, population 48,000, lent £34m. Everyone in Iceland signed a thank-you card. And finally the IMF came up with a rescue package.

Oh, but Gordon Brown — or you and me, as he is known abroad — leant on that so that fat, stupid English councils could get their greedy noses in the trough before Icelandic children got a banana. That's not hyperbole — because they have so little foreign currency, imports are graded into three categories: essential, necessary and luxury. Exotic fruit is a luxury, but then in Iceland a tree is an oddity. If you want fruit, eat fish liver or a puffin.

Sitting in the happy, healthy organic cafes of downtown Reykjavik where the hippie kids blog (there are more bloggers here than anywhere else) and girls with blond babies laugh at each other, you wouldn't know this was an economically dead country walking. In the 101, a New York-brittle boutique hotel built and patronised by the bankers and speculators, you couldn't tell that nobody here has a pension or savings. The groups of svelte and confident girls flick their hair, neck cocktails and make blatant passes at the men with face hair like mangy seals who are downing beer and shots. Icelanders react to bad news the way they always have. It's the same way they react to good news: they get hammered. Properly Valhallaed. The bars and clubs are full, the booze is expensive, and they toast each other with a grim irony. There are still redundancy payments around — they're cash-happy. The crunch will come in the New Year when the brass handshakes run out.

People may be hurt by Brown and the British, and embarrassed by the gluttony and ineptitude of their own businessmen, and they are angry with their government. They want an election and someone to be Icelandic enough to grasp the blame and responsibility. But about themselves and the future they are remarkably, Nordically sanguine. A very direct woman in a bar said: "All that money, all the things and the stuff, it's very un-Icelandic. The wanting, the conspicuous consumption, the avarice and ambition, the pathetic jealousy, that isn't us. A great weight has been lifted now the money and the desires are gone. We can get back to being who we are."

Who the Icelandics are is one of the great enigmas of northern Europe. They speak an ancient, pure Scandinavian. They are horrifically hard-drinking, maudlin and prone to flights of dark nihilism and lengthy bitterness. They are taciturn fishermen and farmers; stoical, practical and moral. They have published more books and produced more chess grandmasters per head than anywhere else. They read more and write more, they sing and play instruments. Everyone here can change a tyre, strip an engine, ride a horse, sail a boat, dress a sheep and cure a salmon. They have grown through a hard Calvinism to a moral atheism while maintaining an open mind about elves.

Roads are moved to avoid the homes of the hidden people: elves have to be asked permission before new buildings are built, and country folk see them regularly, not always when drunk. The fairy folk who share this empty island with the humans are Adam's other children: the unwanted, cloaked by God in invisibility.

There is also a deep handmade seam of nostalgia that links all Icelanders. Families are going back to the old ways — to buying the autumn-culled sheep. Traditionally you get an odd number, and the whole family comes to make slatur, a sort of fatty haggis sausage that is boiled and tastes like warm, meaty fat. The warming cabinets of convenience stores offer vacuum-packed, ready-cooked, laterally sliced halves of sheep's heads, which I'm told are selling like boil-in-the-bag halves of sheep's heads. The women are going back to knitting rough, tarry wool into the mentally geometric jerseys that feel like wearing St Francis's wife-beater. A big second-hand shop has become a smart and fashionable place to shop, though not for anything that is fashionable or smart. The contents are commendably and pathetically meagre and practical. The boxes of second-hand records hum the contradictions of Iceland's long winter. There are lots of romantic choral works, home-grown folk songs from men in third-degree knitting, and heavy metal and prog rock. On the second-hand-magazine rack are piles of practical outdoor-activity manuals and a copy of Hello! commemorating the death of Princess Diana.

The designer interior-decorating emporiums that sprung up in the last five years now stand empty and sulky, like party-dressed girls with panda eyes waiting at morning-after bus stops. There's a large new mall on the outskirts of Reykjavik, neon-bright and desolate. The girl who takes me there says, "A mall — nothing could be less Icelandic than a mall. All this will go," and waves a mittened fist at the prefab warehouses, the new homes and the loneliness of the long-distance car park with its flapping flagpoles, "and we can stop pretending to be little Americans, or Danes, or British."

There is something invigorating about Iceland at this moment — like being with people waking from a dream. It's exciting and instructive. It's a patronising cliché to say that people have wealth beyond mere riches. Nobody is better off for being poor. But this tight-knit, undemonstrative community at the edge of the world has been woven together from sterner stuff than I think we could muster. "We'll be all right — we're not going to starve," a shopkeeper told me. "We have fish and rye and mutton and barley. We can grow the odd tomato in a polytunnel. We have skills — useful skills, practical skills. And, you know, they're under-heating the pavement outside my shop so it won't freeze in the winter. All our energy is thermal and free. So maybe I can't have a new mobile phone, but when I get drunk and fall over, the pavement will keep me warm."

From the 12th century a miraculous thing happened here: one of those eruptions of creation that defy the laws of culture and make civilisations briefly pyrotechnic. A series of books were written to illuminate the dark: sagas, secular stories of life, of mystery and mythology, of lords and farmers, politics and revenge, love affairs and voyages. Stories that were the first to be written as narratives with parabolas of plot and evolving characters. Nobody anywhere else had ever done that before. It is the birth of literature. They are as inexplicably, breathlessly awe-inspiring as the conception of the Renaissance a hundred years later. It was the Icelandic sagas that inspired Tolkien to write The Lord of the Rings, because he wanted Britain to retrospectively have a creation myth. Nobody knows what inspired Iceland or what precipitated this volcano of clear, collected genius. It was just Iceland: out there, sparse and treeless.

In the howling gale where the water boils and the volcanoes rumble, and the earthquakes make the ground liquid, and black shores crash and smoke, it is a landscape that fills you with either dread or stories. And it's shared with the hidden people and the heroic solitude, a brooding presence to measure your height against.

Iceland has grasped this weakness, this greed, this business with money, and turned its back to take an unsentimental look at itself.

They will be all right. This is the nation that made the first democratic parliament — the Althing — that fought the Royal Navy to make the first sustainable fishery in the northern hemisphere, produced three Miss Worlds and one Nobel literature laureate — then came second at handball. You are measured by how squarely you stand against bad luck. Not how you squander good luck.

The Times
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on December 15, 2008, 07:19:42 PM
QuoteI repeat, the problem is not liquidity, it is solvency. Bank holidays still a possibility.

At the start it was credit, then liquidity and now it is a question of solvency/over-leveraging.

The real genesis though was thus:

If I am getting a yield of 5% and hear that the next guy is getting 6% I naturally switch chasing the higher yield.

As people chase the ever higher yields new instruments, fads etc appear offering even higher yields/margins.

As everyone jumps on board, all apparently getting richer, minor issues such as due diligence and effective regulation drop down the list of priorities.

The banks might only be the first domino. I think other sectors will get dragged into this.

The question is should we have just been happy getting our 5% yields and left it at that?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: rootthemout on December 15, 2008, 10:25:12 PM
read that piece lecale yesterday as well,then heard someone say whats the difference between ireland and iceland? one letter and about six months
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on December 17, 2008, 11:55:10 AM
The Government is expected to unveil broad details of its economic recovery plan later this week.

RTÉ News understands the Government hopes to launch its framework plan well before Christmas - perhaps as early as tomorrow.

It is expected it will not involve firm targets and ministers said last night it would be as its title suggests - a framework outlining the areas where savings could be made and initiatives launched.

AdvertisementTaoiseach Brian Cowen told unions and employers yesterday that the country had reached a crossroads in its development but that its best chances lie in relying on partnership to lead it out of the current difficulties.

But he also drew a stark picture of Ireland's difficulties, saying bluntly its current fiscal position was neither sensible nor sustainable.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Joxer on December 17, 2008, 11:59:45 AM
The Dollar at $1.41 today,

Coming strong again, sort of.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on December 17, 2008, 05:07:51 PM
Great read on Iceland there in the Times - very well written.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on December 17, 2008, 05:10:48 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on October 25, 2008, 02:48:49 AM
I'd agree muppet, the us policy of printing money HAS to come home to roost, the dollar must be massively overvalued at the moment - i think worldwide we may be over the worst of it (not in terms of market falls), but that maybe we'll survive a total market failure THIS time.  That's a good point re oil and the same could be said for gold which has fallen off in price over the last week or so too.  The other thing we should remember re the dollar surge is that many of these rallies are manipulated to an extent by speculators and they like to follow a trend - demand for dollars last week was extremely high as the lehman brothers derivative positions were being unwound to the tune of 400-500bn dollars, so holders of dollars could almost name their price. 
Against sterling the utterance of the word RECESSION by BOE governor was the cue for another 2p off the value, basically the two main things forex rates are based on are supposed to be potential growth rates and interest rates and King's speech basically said that both would be low for the forseeable future - though why anyone thinks the US are going to avoid a recession is beyond me, imo bar ourselves and iceland they're about as fcuked as there is.
The Irish market is also probably oversold, but until the banks come clean who would have a punt on it?  I might have a look for some products that could give me a little exposure to a potential upside (to worldwide recovery), i wouldn't dream of picking individual equities though, any suggestions off the tops of your heads - is it too early still?

Looks the dollar is sliding again against the euro but sterling is also on the floor. What can the Fed do now?

I dont see how the EU can keep interest rates at 2.5% when the US & UK are close to 0%.

War maybe?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: stephenite on December 17, 2008, 10:15:17 PM
What's gonna happen when we run out of interest rates to cut? What else can they do?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: mannix on December 17, 2008, 10:47:41 PM
luckily enough I have an uncle called warren.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on December 18, 2008, 06:02:38 PM
Quote from: mannix on December 17, 2008, 10:47:41 PM
luckily enough I have an uncle called warren.

I might need a warren.

I'd heard a bank was close to meltdown again today but so far nothing. Maybe next week.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Declan on December 19, 2008, 07:30:07 AM
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2008/1219/1229523105585.html (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2008/1219/1229523105585.html)

Another icon of the Celtic Tiger with feet of clay - Sean Fitzpatrick. Irish Nationwide being the holding bank - there's a surprise.

Shameless f**kers the lot of them. Wonder how the "normal" Anglo workers feel this morning and wonder who their auditors are?

Were giving these bastards a state guarantee and billlions in bail outs - Any good reason why we just don't nationalise them all?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on December 19, 2008, 09:30:29 AM
Quote from: Declan on December 19, 2008, 07:30:07 AM
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2008/1219/1229523105585.html (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2008/1219/1229523105585.html)

Another icon of the Celtic Tiger with feet of clay - Sean Fitzpatrick. Irish Nationwide being the holding bank - there's a surprise.

Shameless f**kers the lot of them. Wonder how the "normal" Anglo workers feel this morning and wonder who their auditors are?

Were giving these b**tards a state guarantee and billlions in bail outs - Any good reason why we just don't nationalise them all?

Down 9c to 23c. Will it survive the day?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: the Deel Rover on December 19, 2008, 09:42:46 AM
[
Quote from: Declan on December 19, 2008, 07:30:07 AM
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2008/1219/1229523105585.html (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2008/1219/1229523105585.html)

Another icon of the Celtic Tiger with feet of clay - Sean Fitzpatrick. Irish Nationwide being the holding bank - there's a surprise.

Shameless f**kers the lot of them. Wonder how the "normal" Anglo workers feel this morning and wonder who their auditors are?

Were giving these b**tards a state guarantee and billlions in bail outs - Any good reason why we just don't nationalise them all?

where the fcuk was the financial regulator when all this was going on ?? Then again wasn't he well up in the banking industry before he got that job ??? ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bensars on December 19, 2008, 10:26:41 AM
im confused. (nothing new ) Was this a personal loan he gave himself or was it moving the banks money to make the accounts look better ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: the Deel Rover on December 19, 2008, 10:28:57 AM
seems to be the latter bensars
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: the Deel Rover on December 19, 2008, 04:16:07 PM

Independent

Friday December 19 2008

In each Anglo Irish Bank annual report there is a note on the accounts showing the total loans given to directors. This total is measured at a single point in time -- in Anglo's case September 30. For eight years prior to 2008, Sean Fitzpatrick transfered some of his loans from Ango Irish Bank to Irish Nationwide. He would then transfer the loans back to Anglo at a later date.

Therefore, for eight years, the figure for the total directors' loans given in the Anglo accounts was inaccurate. Indeed, 2008 was the first year Mr Fitzpatrick revealed his accurate figure, which amounted to €87m. Twice the sum of the other 12 directors' loan figures.

While this transfer of loans did not breach the law, it could be seen as inappropriate from a transparency point of view.

- Maeve Dineen

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: the Deel Rover on December 20, 2008, 09:28:14 AM
 
Saturday December 20 2008

Anglo Irish Bank's auditors only became aware on Thursday evening of former chairman Sean Fitzpatrick's practice of temporarily concealing loans from the bank.

Ernst & Young is understood to have been unaware that Mr Fitzpatrick transferred loans over an eight-year period to Irish Nationwide Building Society before Anglo's year-end so they would not be recorded in the Anglo's annual accounts.

This revelation came as accountancy expert Niamh Brennan said the kind of transfer carried out by Mr Fitzpatrick was quite common and should have been spotted by the bank's auditors.

Professor Brennan, who is academic director for the Centre of Corporate Governance at UCD, also queried why such large transactions were not scrutinised under the stringent laws designed to combat money laundering.

"It was such a simple operation that it is almost unbelievable that it could have been successful," said Prof Brennan. "You sometimes get this kind of window dressing in companies, coming up to the time when the books are to be done by the auditors. Transactions in that period should be scrutinised by the auditors."

Prof Brennan said she found it hard to believe that the transactions were not known to, or assisted by, other staff in Anglo-Irish. "At least one other person must have known," she said.

Thorough

E&Y said yesterday that it does not comment on clients' business. However, it is believed the firm is comfortable that its audit structure is complete and thorough and that this is not an issue that normally comes up and could be easily concealed.

While the practice did not breach banking or legal regulations, Mr Fitzpatrick has conceded "on reflection, that it was inappropriate and unacceptable".

The Financial Regulator became aware of Mr Fitzpatrick's loan transfers during a review of Irish Nationwide's books in January but the Department of Finance and Finance Minister Brian Lenihan were not informed until recent days.

The watchdog had told Anglo to ensure these loans were accounted for in the annual report for Anglo's full-year to the end of last September, which is due for release soon.

The issue also came to a head during the week as Anglo's talks with the Government regarding its recapitalisation plans intensified, and Finance Minister Brian Lenihan asked the regulator to check out loans to directors of the group.

It subsequently emerged the watchdog had been looking into the issue since January.

Prof Brennan said that the Financial Regulator's decision to keep the matter confidential was a cause for concern.

"I should imagine that the Taoiseach and Finance Minister must be feeling very let down that this was not made known to them earlier," she said.

- Joe Brennan and Brendan Keenan


Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on December 20, 2008, 11:02:59 AM
Quote from: muppet on November 20, 2008, 03:08:44 PM
As of today the market cap of these companies is:

AIB  2,025,520,452
BOI 1,154,822,801
Anglo 793,390,071
IL&P 390,263,115

Their total value is €4,263,996,429.

2 years ago today those figures were:

AIB 19,079,930,413
BOI 15,661,323,506
Anglo 10,352,078,333
IL&P 5,310,839,688

The total value then was €50,404,171,940

The writing is on the wall, floor and ceiling.

As of close of business on Friday the figures were:

AIB 1,453,090,759
BOI    677,830,775
Anglo 265,983,261
IL&P 401,057,627

Total €2,797,962,422

That is the total value of the banks. Their debt is over €300 Billion and possibly up to €400 Billion depending on who is spinning the figure. Leveraging now somewhere between 107 and 143. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: the Deel Rover on December 20, 2008, 11:09:03 AM
muppett what do you think of the role of the financial regulator in all of this? He knew all about fitzpatricks dealings back in January yet did not inform any one about this till this week?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Hardy on December 20, 2008, 11:26:01 AM
P45
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on December 20, 2008, 11:27:19 AM
Quote from: the Deel Rover on December 20, 2008, 11:09:03 AM
muppett what do you think of the role of the financial regulator in all of this? He knew all about fitzpatricks dealings back in January yet did not inform any one about this till this week?

I dont work in the financial sector so my opinion comes with a huge health warning.

If the transaction was serious enough for the Chairman and CX to resign because of a lack of transparency it would appear, given that the regulator knew about it and didn't inform the minister, he should probably go as well for the same lack of transparency.

However, now is not a good time to chop all the the heads of the financial sector. So I'd say he offered/will offer his resignation and it probably wasn't/wont be accepted by Lenihan.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: the Deel Rover on December 20, 2008, 11:30:59 AM
Quote from: Hardy on December 20, 2008, 11:26:01 AM
P45

Yeah my thoughts exactly hardy
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Fear ón Srath Bán on December 20, 2008, 11:33:58 AM
Quote from: the Deel Rover on December 20, 2008, 11:09:03 AM
muppett what do you think of the role of the financial regulator in all of this?

AKA Mickey Mouse.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: comethekingdom on December 21, 2008, 10:42:54 PM
€1.5bn for Anglo Irish Bank and €2.0bn each for AIB and BOI - Good value for us taxpayers?? ???
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: armaghniac on December 22, 2008, 12:47:25 AM
AIB and BOI have bad business, but also a lot of good business. The government, or strictly the National pension fund now has first call on the profits of these banks. Not sure about Anglo.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Declan on December 22, 2008, 07:47:39 AM
More raping of the ordinary taxpayer - Latest government announcement is a joke. Let's give the bastards that got the banks into this mess more money. How long will people take this before taking to the streets?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on December 22, 2008, 04:47:42 PM
Quote from: Declan on December 22, 2008, 07:47:39 AM
More raping of the ordinary taxpayer - Latest government announcement is a joke. Let's give the b**tards that got the banks into this mess more money. How long will people take this before taking to the streets?

The problem is if they let the banks go we will all have plenty of time to be on the streets.

But I agree we need a serious inquisition so lessons might actually be learned rather than promised and forgotten in the next boom.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on January 09, 2009, 11:29:03 PM
The financial strangulator has resigned.

http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/mhsnmhidojgb/ (http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/mhsnmhidojgb/)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Shamrock Shore on January 10, 2009, 12:15:47 AM
No muppet.

He has 'retired'
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on January 10, 2009, 12:35:59 AM
Quote from: Shamrock Shore on January 10, 2009, 12:15:47 AM
No muppet.

He has 'retired'


Same effect !
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on January 15, 2009, 12:58:55 PM
Good article from the BBC Business website :
Irish house of cards comes down 

By Ray Furlong
BBC News, Drogheda 



A drop in building work has meant fewer customers for Dave's cafe
As the bacon rind turns a crispy brown colour, Dave Jones gives it a generous extra splash of oil.

The food at the Smithstown Diner, a small roadside cafe near Drogheda, is high on grease - the builders who come here like it that way. But lately business has dropped.

"It used to be really hectic in here. Now look," he says, gesturing at rows of empty plastic seats.

The Smithstown is popular with what the Irish call "breakfast roll man," building workers in white vans. This morning, there are just two.

"Times are hard, a lot of boys are being let go," says 40-year-old Robert Daley, who runs an aluminium fitting business.

"We do mainly big projects - developments of shops, offices and flats," he says. "We're just finishing one, so we're busy at the moment but there's nothing else coming up."

His employee, Tony King, nods over his fried eggs and black pudding.

"We're really feeling the pinch for the first time, because you know there's nothing else out there.

"In the worst scenario I could go to England - but it's pretty quiet over there too."

Empty houses

Tony is not the only person in Drogheda talking about working abroad. A number of people mention Australia as a possible destination.


Giles Belton says house prices have fallen by about 30%
The Irish thought their Celtic Tiger economy had put an end to generations of emigration. It is not back yet, but the fact that people are talking about it again is a sign of how bad things have got.

Ireland is the first country in western Europe to officially fall into recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.

Places like Drogheda, a commuter town near Dublin, have been particularly hit.

During the unprecedented boom years, the population here grew by a third. Now, it is an unemployment black-spot - ringed by new developments with empty, unsold houses.

Giles Belton has been an estate agent here for 20 years. He took me to the Termon Abbey estate to show me the problem.

"This is quite typical of any of the new estates that have been built in the Drogheda area," he says.

"At the height of the market these properties were selling exceptionally well. A lot of people were buying second, and third, and fourth houses. There were record breaking prices."

"Now, prices are down by about 30%."

The property collapse has combined with the global financial crisis to create what some see as a perfect storm hitting Ireland's banks - whose loan books are groaning with property-related debt.

Earlier in October, the government announced a scheme to guarantee deposits in the banks to prevent a run.

Pensioner protests

Now, Dublin is buzzing with speculation that this will not be enough - and that a British-style buy-out of top banks will be needed.

It is estimated that Irish banks need an additional 10 to 14bn euros and that some may have to merge.


Thousands of pensioners protested against plans to cut health spending
Shares in the top four banks have tumbled, but at a banking conference in Dublin this week Finance Minister Brian Lenihan insisted that buying stakes in the banks was "the last option".

The government would have trouble paying for it.

Last week it unveiled its biggest budget deficit in 20 years - despite the budget including tax rises and cuts in spending on education and health.

The latter included cuts in free health provision for the over 70s, and brought a huge revolt by backbench Fianna Fail MPs that led to a partial, but nonetheless humiliating, climb-down by the government.

Prime Minister Brian Cowen had his authority undermined - looking shocked and angry in parliamentary exchanges.

Taunted for being "cruel and callous" by the opposition, he shouted back: "You call me callous - call me any names you like. I'll continue to provide leadership in the solution of problems".

But the following day, despite the U-turn, 15,000 pensioners converged on parliament in a day of protest.

  Because our economy was so heavily dependent on building, we suffered

Dominic Hannagan, Labour MP
According to Ray Kinsella, professor of banking at University College Dublin, it shows that "the financial crisis can and does morph into an economic crisis".

"The ability to fund public services is undermined. The government have had to introduce a budget to cope with this astonishing turnaround, and we haven't had to do anything like this for a generation," he says.

"It's difficult, it's protracted, and it's painful."

The buskers in Drogheda know this. They line the high street, but do not have many coins in their hats.

Local senator Dominic Hannagan, from the opposition Labour Party, says the crisis does have international roots, but that the government is also to blame.

"The government relied far too heavily on the building trade. So when credit became difficult to get, when mortgage rates went up, that area suffered most. Because our economy was so heavily dependent on building, we suffered.

"We've been telling the government to diversify the economy for years. They didn't, and now we're suffering."


Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: passedit on January 15, 2009, 02:24:36 PM
More bad news. UK accounts with Irish Banks are covered by the the Irish Guarantee* but not the UK one.

*I can guarantee that there is no money to cover this.

From the Bluesheet

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/cold-facts-of-how-we-could-be-iceland-inside-the-euro-1600539.html (http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/cold-facts-of-how-we-could-be-iceland-inside-the-euro-1600539.html)

QuoteCold facts of how we could be 'Iceland inside the euro'

Wednesday January 14 2009

Could the unthinkable come to pass here? Could Ireland default on its sovereign debt? The answer is yes. Such a disaster is now quite possible. In the same way as a family can end up losing the house, the car, everything, a country, too, can fail to make its repayments. At the moment, such thoughts are heresy; but so, too, was questioning the property boom a mere four or five years ago.

Back in 2003 or 2004 when people questioned the property boom and its driver, the debt splurge by the bankers, we were ridiculed and dismissed. We were labelled mavericks. We were told that it was "dangerous" to even suggest such things because we might "talk down the economy".

I remember being labelled "unpatriotic" by a politician in 2004 following an appearance on 'Prime Time' when I described the property market as a "scam" operated by "an unholy alliance of bankers and property developers".

We now know that this is exactly what it was, it was a scam perpetrated by a small minority who made fortunes, aided and abetted by a frenzied population caught in a mania and presided over by Fianna Fail. It is extraordinary that the party which lays claim to the Rising, could end up advocating property purchases in Bulgaria using borrowed money as the highest form of national patriotism, but that's where we got to!

So the moral of that tawdry story is that "thinking the unthinkable" while not popular, is necessary. If we are forewarned, we are forearmed. Make no mistake about it; it is entirely possible that Ireland will default on its sovereign debts. We are hurtling in that direction. Foreign investors are on notice and last week, they demanded a huge interest rate premium from Ireland before they gave us cash. We paid 4.7pc to borrow money on Thursday last. In contrast, Germany paid 3.2pc. This implies an Irish interest rate premium of over 40pc for two states that are in the same currency union. So lenders are worried that Ireland will not be able to pay its way.

Surely you will assert that there is a big difference between being worried and turning off the taps altogether? Well yes, you are right, but consider what has happened here. If you look at things objectively, Ireland should be in a much better position than practically any European country. Our national debt is extremely low, our budget deficit projections are very poor; but so, too, are many countries and in contrast to the rest of the EU, Ireland seems to be concerned about government spending and is talking about putting in place a series of cutbacks. So why, in the eyes of foreign lenders, should we be any more delinquent than the others?

The answer is that although the State behaved itself in the boom and did not borrow, the rest of us went mad. We borrowed for every hare-brained property scheme imaginable. Our banks and the bosses, who are still in their jobs, destroyed the national balance sheet by borrowing money abroad to fund this nonsense. We also decided to pay ourselves better than all our competitors, not because we were more productive but because we were more profligate. The geniuses at the Department of Finance creamed off tax revenues from the top of this frothy borrowed brew, mistaking an overdraft for a tax bonanza.

When this borrowing splurge stopped abruptly last year because the credit markets shut down, the Government was faced with the choice: does it allow the banks to collapse because they were so borrowed that they couldn't finance themselves or does it guarantee the banks, buy time and see whether it can put a plan B in place? Had the Government allowed banks to go bust in October, there would have been a run on the other banks, leading to a collapse of the system and we would have been "Iceland inside the euro".

But amazingly it didn't put plan B into action, it never came up with a plan B and now the banks are again in dire straits. Although the guarantee means that they might not default, their delinquency has contaminated the sovereign debt and now the market thinks that the banks will bring the State down with them.

Consider the position of Anglo. If Anglo goes bust, because people withdraw their deposits, the State will have to write a large cheque. That cheque could be as big as €30bn if the assets in the bank's balance sheet are as bad as many fear. Will Ireland be able to write this cheque? Will we be able, at short notice, to borrow that much cash? Furthermore, will Irish workers stick around to pay the tax associated with such a rise in our national debt?

After all, we the Irish citizens are volunteers, not prisoners and can emigrate to escape the pleasure of paying higher taxes for developers' greed. Therefore, it is not hard to envisage a situation where we default, particularly as we can't even finance day-to-day expenditure without borrowing for God's sake!

Bad and all as it might sound, if we were to default, we would not be unique. To see what can happen to delinquent borrowers in a monetary union, we have to turn the clocks back and re-read a bit of financial history.

It is 1975; flares, Richie Ryan, Eddie Gallagher and the Horslips are in the news. The US is in recession. The Detroit car industry, like today, is going to the wall. The oil price shock is still reverberating around the world and the ensuing recession has weakened the Ford administration more than Watergate.

More importantly, in light of Ireland's current predicament, New York City in 1975 was in crisis and on the verge of default.

Lenders simply stopped lending to the Big Apple. Years of profligacy, which were financed in good times, suddenly caused investors to panic. New York City was about to default on its bonds and Gerald Ford told the city to "drop dead" when it asked for a bailout. Ford argued that the US government would never contemplate bailing out New York, as it would undermine the credibility of the dollar. However, in a 'volte face' of epic proportions, Ford blinked first and the City was bailed out with a federal loan.

To avoid a similar situation threatening the euro, the Commission imposed the 3pc budget deficit rule on all euro countries so that no country could undermine the currency. What would happen if we were to test this? Would the EU bail us out rather than countenance a sovereign default that might destabilise the euro? Could we renegotiate Lisbon along such lines? Could we go to the ECB and look for a bailout?

This might be better for us and for the EU as a whole, however politically unethical it might seem. After all, do they want an "Iceland inside the euro"? That's what it looks like they are going to get! We've tested Europe's patience once, are we about to do it again in a much more dramatic fashion?

I am not suggesting that we should resort to political blackmail, but if you have ever seen a bankrupt man trying to save his skin, you know that he'll do, say or sell anything. Similarly, a country facing default will behave accordingly.

That's just the way it goes!

www.davidmcwilliams.ie dmcwilliams@independent.ie
Title: First Domino
Post by: passedit on January 15, 2009, 11:10:56 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0115/banks.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0115/banks.html)


Govt to take control of Anglo Irish Bank
watch Thursday, 15 January 2009 22:51

The Government has announced plans to take complete control of Anglo Irish Bank, saying its previous plan to inject money into the bank is not the best way to secure its viability.

Anglo Irish Bank's chief executive David Drumm and chairman Sean FitzPatrick resigned last month in a controversy over secret loans to directors. Its finance director and chief risk officer Willie McAteer resigned last week.

The Government had planned to inject €1.5bn into the bank, taking 75% of the voting rights in the process.
Advertisement

Since reaching a peak above €17 in mid-2007, shares in Anglo Irish have plummeted, and closed at just 22 cent in Dublin today.

A statement tonight said the bank would continue to trade normally and all its employees would stay with the company.

The Government said 'unacceptable practices' within the bank had caused it serious damage.

Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said: 'I would again stress that this Government decision safeguards the interest of the depositors of Anglo, and the stability of the economy, given the significance of Anglo in this regard, as already recognised by the European Commission.

'The bank will continue to operate as normal and depositors and creditors should continue to transact as normal.'

The Government has prepared legislation to give effect to the nationalisation, which will be presented to the Oireachtas on Tuesday.

Trading in the shares is expected to be suspended before the Irish stock market opens tomorrow.

The Government statement said shareholders' rights would be respected, and the legislation will outline plans for compensation.

A spokesman for the Taoiseach, who is in Japan on a trade mission, said Mr Cowen had been closely involved in the decision making process over Anglo Irish Bank.

It is understood that he was in touch with senior officials in his own department and with the Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan between his engagements, which included a meeting with the Japanese prime minister.

Questioned by journalists yesterday about the bank and Fine Gael's decision to resist recapitalisation Mr Cowen repeatedly referred to Anglo as a systemic bank within the Irish system.

meanwhile opposition parties have claimed the Government's banking policy is in ruins after tonight's announcement on Anglo-Irish Bank.

Fine Gael's Richard Bruton said the decision was correct, but that it was the latest in a long line of u-turns.

Deputy Bruton said Fine Gael had opposed recapitalisation when it was announced, because of the lack of trust and confidence in Anglo.

He said the handling of the issue confirmed once again that the Government are 'all at sea on economic policy and are lurching from one u-turn to the next'.

Labour's Joan Burton said the Government had gone to 'extraordinary lengths' to avoid nationalising the bank and that enormous damage had been done to Ireland's reputation in international markets.

She said an unknown quantity of bad debt, running to billions of Euro, has been taken on by the exchequer, with the potential to further increase the cost of Irish Government borrowing.

Deputy Burton said the sheer incompetence was breathtaking, and the damage to the exchequer unknown.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on January 15, 2009, 11:25:50 PM
Any suggestions for what it's new name will be?

Ghetto Irish Bank

Gung-ho Irish Bank
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: passedit on January 16, 2009, 08:49:48 AM
Quote from: muppet on January 15, 2009, 11:25:50 PM
Any suggestions for what it's new name will be?

Ghetto Irish Bank

Gung-ho Irish Bank

Craggy Island Bank

Motto: That money was only resting in my account
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: stephenite on January 16, 2009, 08:51:29 AM
I could understand the nationalisation of one of the bigger commercial banks, say AIB, Permanent TSB or BOI. But are Anglo Irish a bit different to them, aren't their clients mainly, well property developers? Isn't that the reason they're in the shit (massive loans to directors another reason of course)

If this institution were let slide wtithout government nationalisation, can anyone explain to me what the downside would be to Joe Public?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: ludermor on January 16, 2009, 08:56:51 AM
I work for a builder and Anglo Irish are the financiers on the job. I want to know if im now self employed?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: passedit on January 16, 2009, 09:00:01 AM
Quote from: ludermor on January 16, 2009, 08:56:51 AM
I work for a builder and Anglo Irish are the financiers on the job. I want to know if im now self employed?

No you are a civil servant
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Shamrock Shore on January 16, 2009, 09:14:11 AM
The reported 87mill to Sean Fitz hardly is the issue. When the loans were fresh the bank was worth 200 billion or somesuch so that was a drop in the ocean. It was only wrong from a disclosure point of view and therefore a two fingers to the shareholder which is a shocking offence.

No - the issue is more than that and I look northwards, towards Fermanagh/Cavan, for my Dick Dastardly in this affair.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: PadraicHenryPearse on January 16, 2009, 09:17:24 AM
what happens to shares that people have in Anglo? I think i may have a couple of hundred shares?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Shamrock Shore on January 16, 2009, 09:21:41 AM
Shares are now officially worthless until such time as an independent assessment is done as to the net value of the shares.

It's like the Gubbermint did a CPO on us and, under the constitution, we are entitled to fair compensation.

However I wouldn't hold my breath as this could take a few years and then we may get back only 5c per share.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: whiskeysteve on January 16, 2009, 11:10:13 AM
Quote from: passedit on January 16, 2009, 08:49:48 AM
Quote from: muppet on January 15, 2009, 11:25:50 PM
Any suggestions for what it's new name will be?

Ghetto Irish Bank

Gung-ho Irish Bank

Craggy Island Bank

Motto: That money was only resting in my account

Sean Fitzpatrick should get a Golden Cleric
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on January 16, 2009, 11:27:46 AM
some remarkably prescient posts here back in sept/oct, maybe Lenno should have spent more time reading our opinions rather than letting Sean Fitzpatrick tell him what he should do next.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Croí na hÉireann on January 16, 2009, 11:57:24 AM
The fact this was announced yesterday is worrying. Shane Ross on Prime Time last night said the reasons behind the share collapse in Anglo were to be made public today before the governments intervention. This will now not happen. Very disturbing...
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Declan on January 16, 2009, 01:44:27 PM
QuoteNo - the issue is more than that and I look northwards, towards Fermanagh/Cavan, for my Dick Dastardly in this affair.

Indeed - SS - Was 1.5 billion and counting from what I heard.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Shamrock Shore on January 16, 2009, 02:09:26 PM
It's all about dominoes.

Anglo..........Quinn.....Gubbermint........State

That was a scenatio that nobody could even consider so lads, we are now own a bank.

The Stickies will be happy  ::)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on January 16, 2009, 10:35:48 PM
Quote from: Shamrock Shore on January 16, 2009, 02:09:26 PM
It's all about dominoes.

Anglo..........Quinn.....Gubbermint........State

That was a scenatio that nobody could even consider so lads, we are now own a bank.

The Stickies will be happy  ::)

Actually we have just bought a huge subprime financial product, which brings us nicely back to the start of the circle.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on January 16, 2009, 10:51:43 PM
Will the government seek to run it in the long term or try and wind it down / imalgamate it with some of the bigger boys ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: bcarrier on January 16, 2009, 11:14:06 PM
SS missing a link or two. Quinn still has assets ...pity some of the developers. Plenty of horses sold lately.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: FermGael on January 17, 2009, 10:00:45 AM
For those thinking about buying a house.  Taken from the irish times
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2009/0113/1231738220759.html?via=mr (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2009/0113/1231738220759.html?via=mr)
QuoteWarning that house prices may fall by 80%
In this section »

LAURA SLATTERY

HOUSING MARKET: IRELAND WILL see more demolition than construction of houses over the next decade, as the economy struggles to recover from the collapse of the housing market and the emergence of "zombie" banks, UCD economist Morgan Kelly told the conference.

In a presentation that drew several collective intakes of breath, Mr Kelly predicted that house prices would fall by 80 per cent from peak to trough in real terms.

"Construction, but not demolition, of residential and commercial property will fall to zero for the foreseeable future," he said.

Low levels of education among those employed in construction – where worker numbers peaked at about 280,000 – meant retraining would not be straightforward.

Recovery will be slow: "It has taken us 10 years to get into this situation – it will in all likelihood take us 10 years to get out of it."

Mr Kelly said he had been hailed as being extremely prescient as a result of his warnings in relation to the property bubble, when in fact he and a handful of other "amateurs" were merely stating what was obvious.

Sparing no blushes, he said professional economists in the Central Bank and the Economic and Social Research Institute "need to look very closely at their analyses of the Irish economy and figure out what went wrong".

Mr Kelly said Ireland's "reputational capital" had been damaged by "chancers" such as ex-Anglo Irish Bank chairman Seán FitzPatrick, who had been abetted by "buffoons" such as former financial regulator Patrick Neary, Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan and the Taoiseach.

In discussing the €110 billion given in loans to developers, Mr Kelly said a typical regional housing collapse in the US saw banks sustain a 20 per cent loss on these loans, but the narrowness of the Irish market increased the risk of "substantially larger losses" for Irish banks.

"The guarantees of Anglo and [Irish] Nationwide liabilities have a strong chance of being called in over the next 21 months," he said. Extending the Government guarantee to these two financial institutions was "extraordinarily unwise" and could produce losses that the State cannot afford to repay.

The global financial crisis may have been positive for the Irish economy as it "stopped us dragging ourselves even deeper into our hole," he said. "If it had taken another year or two, we would have ended up in an Icelandic-shaped hole, which is not to say that we won't end up in one."

Mr Kelly said the Government should abolish stamp duty on property, compile proper price and quantity statistics and restore competitiveness through a public sector pay cut of 10 per cent.

A paper by TCD economist Patrick Honohan on the banking crisis argued that capital injections in the banks were a prerequisite for recovery. The financial regulator needed to decide now which banks had systemic importance to the economy – in other words, are "too big to fail", and which are "zombie" banks.

"The goal is to avoid the continued operation of an undercapitalised, error-prone bank with a flawed business model and administrative practices, a problematic customer base and a compromised management facing distorted incentives," the paper stated.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on January 18, 2009, 09:31:38 PM
Quote from: FermGael on January 17, 2009, 10:00:45 AM
For those thinking about buying a house.  Taken from the irish times
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2009/0113/1231738220759.html?via=mr (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2009/0113/1231738220759.html?via=mr)
QuoteWarning that house prices may fall by 80%
In this section »

LAURA SLATTERY

HOUSING MARKET: IRELAND WILL see more demolition than construction of houses over the next decade, as the economy struggles to recover from the collapse of the housing market and the emergence of "zombie" banks, UCD economist Morgan Kelly told the conference.

In a presentation that drew several collective intakes of breath, Mr Kelly predicted that house prices would fall by 80 per cent from peak to trough in real terms.

"Construction, but not demolition, of residential and commercial property will fall to zero for the foreseeable future," he said.

Low levels of education among those employed in construction – where worker numbers peaked at about 280,000 – meant retraining would not be straightforward.

Recovery will be slow: "It has taken us 10 years to get into this situation – it will in all likelihood take us 10 years to get out of it."

Mr Kelly said he had been hailed as being extremely prescient as a result of his warnings in relation to the property bubble, when in fact he and a handful of other "amateurs" were merely stating what was obvious.

Sparing no blushes, he said professional economists in the Central Bank and the Economic and Social Research Institute "need to look very closely at their analyses of the Irish economy and figure out what went wrong".

Mr Kelly said Ireland's "reputational capital" had been damaged by "chancers" such as ex-Anglo Irish Bank chairman Seán FitzPatrick, who had been abetted by "buffoons" such as former financial regulator Patrick Neary, Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan and the Taoiseach.

In discussing the €110 billion given in loans to developers, Mr Kelly said a typical regional housing collapse in the US saw banks sustain a 20 per cent loss on these loans, but the narrowness of the Irish market increased the risk of "substantially larger losses" for Irish banks.

"The guarantees of Anglo and [Irish] Nationwide liabilities have a strong chance of being called in over the next 21 months," he said. Extending the Government guarantee to these two financial institutions was "extraordinarily unwise" and could produce losses that the State cannot afford to repay.

The global financial crisis may have been positive for the Irish economy as it "stopped us dragging ourselves even deeper into our hole," he said. "If it had taken another year or two, we would have ended up in an Icelandic-shaped hole, which is not to say that we won't end up in one."

Mr Kelly said the Government should abolish stamp duty on property, compile proper price and quantity statistics and restore competitiveness through a public sector pay cut of 10 per cent.

A paper by TCD economist Patrick Honohan on the banking crisis argued that capital injections in the banks were a prerequisite for recovery. The financial regulator needed to decide now which banks had systemic importance to the economy – in other words, are "too big to fail", and which are "zombie" banks.

"The goal is to avoid the continued operation of an undercapitalised, error-prone bank with a flawed business model and administrative practices, a problematic customer base and a compromised management facing distorted incentives," the paper stated.

I had a very pleasant weekend, until I read that.
Title: Young Sean Fitz
Post by: muppet on January 19, 2009, 11:34:25 AM
(http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3114/3141139302_45d5b3b0a6_o.jpg)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on January 19, 2009, 11:48:02 AM
BOI down to 60c after initially rising this morning.  Even more worryingly, AIB have just collapsed by 60c to 80c - what's the story?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Declan on January 19, 2009, 11:56:21 AM
QuoteBOI down to 60c after initially rising this morning.  Even more worryingly, AIB have just collapsed by 60c to 80c - what's the story?

BZ WBK's Value Just Below that of AIB
• Following Friday's 25% decline in Allied Irish Banks share price, its c. 70.5% stake in Polish subsidiary BZ WBK is valued at €1.2bn, just below the Group's €1.3bn market
capitalisation.

AIB's stake in M&T, US regional bank, was valued at €850m on Friday.

This implies the market is placing a negative valuation of c. €750m on the rump of its business (ROI, UK and Capital Markets divisions). However concerns about the
outlook for impairments and capital adequacy have heightened following the nationalisation of Anglo Irish Bank. We remain cautious on Allied Irish Banks because
there is a risk that impairments will be significantly higher than our forecasts and the bank will be forced to raise capital additional to the amounts already signalled.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on January 19, 2009, 12:50:50 PM
Basically because the Government did nothing until Anglo was in the final phase of collapsing, no investor has any faith in our banks.

Will our other banks last the week?

Tune in to The Muppet Show next week to find out. ::)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on January 19, 2009, 02:06:12 PM
Quote from: muppet on January 19, 2009, 12:50:50 PM
Basically because the Government did nothing until Anglo was in the final phase of collapsing, no investor has any faith in our banks.

Will our other banks last the week?Tune in to The Muppet Show next week to find out. ::)


less than 6 months ago, someone on here suggested that at least one of the banks was in deep shit, but that suggestion was laughed off as being ridiculous - now with Anglo effectively gone under, who is next ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Tankie on January 19, 2009, 02:22:21 PM
Quote from: orangeman on January 19, 2009, 02:06:12 PM
Quote from: muppet on January 19, 2009, 12:50:50 PM
Basically because the Government did nothing until Anglo was in the final phase of collapsing, no investor has any faith in our banks.

Will our other banks last the week?Tune in to The Muppet Show next week to find out. ::)


less than 6 months ago, someone on here suggested that at least one of the banks was in deep shit, but that suggestion was laughed off as being ridiculous - now with Anglo effectively gone under, who is next ?

Well anyone who follows the stock markets and reads the business news knew that it was Anglo that was in shite! But what is happening to BOI and AIB is very worrying, alot of this has to do with the governments in decision, investors are starting to lose confidence in Ireland at this stage as the government is re-activy to everything and not pro-active.

Its a bad sign whe a government say 1 month ago that all the banks are sound only then to take 75% of the bank that everyone knew was focked and then 3 weeks later to come out and nationalize it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: FermGael on January 19, 2009, 03:53:59 PM
Bailout number 2 the UK is not having the desired effect.

The big banks are suffering losses on the stockmarket today.

RBS have lost 65% in one day(12p a share)
LloydTSB have lost 25%
HSBC down 12%
Barclays down 10%

I think that RBS could be nationalised before the week or even today is out.

Things are not looking good.
The throw money at the banks approach and get them to lend, is not working.
Even if they were lending, people would be very wary of taking on debt in the current economic climate.
Re inflating the housing bubble is not the answer either.







Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Maiden1 on January 19, 2009, 04:16:11 PM
Quote from: FermGael on January 19, 2009, 03:53:59 PM
Bailout number 2 the UK is not having the desired effect.

The big banks are suffering losses on the stockmarket today.

RBS have lost 65% in one day(12p a share)
LloydTSB have lost 25%
HSBC down 12%
Barclays down 10%

I think that RBS could be nationalised before the week or even today is out.

Things are not looking good.
The throw money at the banks approach and get them to lend, is not working.
Even if they were lending, people would be very wary of taking on debt in the current economic climate.
Re inflating the housing bubble is not the answer either.


The banks have to start lending again somehow.  I know it's easier said than done but the banks are looking between 25 and 40% deposit to buy a house now, there are virtually no first time buyers under 40 who would have 40k+ sitting in the bank.  It doesn't matter how low interest rates go or how cheap houses get if no one can get a mortgage then the building industry will never start moving again.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Gnevin on January 19, 2009, 04:20:30 PM
Quote from: Tankie on January 19, 2009, 02:22:21 PM
Quote from: orangeman on January 19, 2009, 02:06:12 PM
Quote from: muppet on January 19, 2009, 12:50:50 PM
Basically because the Government did nothing until Anglo was in the final phase of collapsing, no investor has any faith in our banks.

Will our other banks last the week?Tune in to The Muppet Show next week to find out. ::)


less than 6 months ago, someone on here suggested that at least one of the banks was in deep shit, but that suggestion was laughed off as being ridiculous - now with Anglo effectively gone under, who is next ?

Well anyone who follows the stock markets and reads the business news knew that it was Anglo that was in shite! But what is happening to BOI and AIB is very worrying, alot of this has to do with the governments in decision, investors are starting to lose confidence in Ireland at this stage as the government is re-activy to everything and not pro-active.

Its a bad sign whe a government say 1 month ago that all the banks are sound only then to take 75% of the bank that everyone knew was focked and then 3 weeks later to come out and nationalize it.
In fairness to the governement(s) around the world no one really know what to do here . The brits have be throwing money at like it was going out of fashion and that hasn't helped. The yanks are fucked , the rest of Europe is on a knife edge.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on January 19, 2009, 04:30:04 PM
Its all very well saying the banks should lend but to whom and how much?

Businesses on the brink?
Give mortgages secured against rapidly falling houses prices?

Now that they are assessing risk again only personal loans would be safe from their point of view.

The property market is the key. Find the bottom to that and the recovery begins. Unfortunately finding that bottom involves the banks finally declaring all their toxic debt which may put them out of business. Catch 22.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Maiden1 on January 19, 2009, 04:52:08 PM
Quote from: muppet on January 19, 2009, 04:30:04 PM
Its all very well saying the banks should lend but to whom and how much?

Businesses on the brink?
Give mortgages secured against rapidly falling houses prices?

Now that they are assessing risk again only personal loans would be safe from their point of view.

The property market is the key. Find the bottom to that and the recovery begins. Unfortunately finding that bottom involves the banks finally declaring all their toxic debt which may put them out of business. Catch 22.

The US has trillion dollar rescue packages now for the big banks/insurance companies/car companies etc, it is kind of like they are just making up numbers now.  Is there ever a number that it gets to where the government says we don't actually have any more money?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: lynchbhoy on January 19, 2009, 05:03:38 PM
maybe I am not getting he full picture, but banks imo are shooting themselves in the foot (slitting themselves in the throat more apt maybe) by stopping conducting business.

There may be a number of businesses out there that are risks and should not be lent to, but this clamming up and lending to nobody is not going to help. It will make things worse.

Imo by not lending, a reasonably secure business coul dhit the rocks, the employees lose jobs, they cant pay the mortgage- it hits the bank full pelt in the stomach there !

While people are paying mortgages, even those in negative equity, as long as they keeppaying the equity will become positive, the money circulates and the banks, businesses etc all get paid - as long as the banks open some bit for business again.


I disagree with what that ucd 'economist ' says as well.
While he is correct in his opinion that most building workers dont have an education (and are as thick as feck) , the gov could as they are hinting at, start/continue to build new schools, railways, roads etc and a lot of these unemployed builders can be re-employed in this.

Also I have mentioned prev that there could be a lot more jobs created in eco industry, but alas I fear its too soon for that technology to create many jobs as yet.

to overcome this problem , clamming up and hoping it will go away wont work.
We need to trade out recession away. Stopping doing business will destroy any amount of money being thrown around thats supposed to help.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Rois on January 19, 2009, 05:17:27 PM
Doing an independent business review for a bank at the moment - this is the small-scale dilemma that they're facing but I'm sure it can be multiplied to give an idea of one of the problems facing them.

Bank lent a property developer millions to acquire various sites.  Work started but lack of cash flow meant the planned development can't take place, and there's no point anyway as there's no market for the built-out properties.
Property developer owes payments to different banks to cover interest but is having trouble making them.  He has asked the bank for more money which he says is to put the sites into a proper mothball position.  However, we think he's just trying to spread the cash among the different loans.

The bank can refuse to forward more money and foreclose on the developer, forcing the various companies into administration.  The bank is then left with a number of property assets that they really don't want and that aren't worth the money they advanced anyway. 

It's been mentioned earlier, but it's really Catch 22 for the bank.  Unless they lend more money, they could end up losing more than it would cost to mothball the site.  But this guy is fighting to keep a roof over his family and will no doubt do whatever it takes to make that happen, which could include using the cash to satisfy other banks instead of securing the sites. 

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on January 19, 2009, 05:24:18 PM
Would it be better giving us all €100,000 each and let us decide what to do with it, instead of giving it all to the Banks and having them decide? (I know its a stupid idea but as the days go on it seems giving it to the banks is a worse one)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Rois on January 19, 2009, 05:34:16 PM
Quote from: muppet on January 19, 2009, 05:24:18 PM
Would it be better giving us all €100,000 each and let us decide what to do with it, instead of giving it all to the Banks and having them decide? (I know its a stupid idea but as the days go on it seems giving it to the banks is a worse one)

Wouldn't that be great - I'd give mine straight back to First Trust/AIB and get myself out of negative equity.  It's win-win.  Bank gets the cash, I feel a bit better and start spending money again. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Canalman on January 19, 2009, 05:38:27 PM
Banks are actually giving out mges, but using the "old " criteria.........10% savings needed, discounting bonuses/ overtime on salaries, etc etc. About 6 years too late imo. The fact of the matter is that people are not applying for mges as they reckon that property has still alot more to fall and they are worried about losing their jobs.

Certainly the house prices here in Dublin are in freefall at the moment. If the economy is to be jumpstsarted I feel that the Govt will have to tell the banks to discount all mges by say 1/3d in order to reinject some money back into the economy. The people suffering at the moment are by and large in their 20s/30s and they should be spending/investing/saving their money as opposed to paying off crippling mges.
Afaik there is alot of debt out there amongst banks that will never be repaid and alot of it is intrabank debt that can be  written off easily enough.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: carribbear on January 19, 2009, 05:41:55 PM
Just print more bank notes and don't tell anyone.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: FermGael on January 19, 2009, 06:01:45 PM
Quote from: Maiden1 on January 19, 2009, 04:16:11 PM
The banks have to start lending again somehow.  I know it's easier said than done but the banks are looking between 25 and 40% deposit to buy a house now, there are virtually no first time buyers under 40 who would have 40k+ sitting in the bank.  It doesn't matter how low interest rates go or how cheap houses get if no one can get a mortgage then the building industry will never start moving again.
Maiden it was not that long ago that a 20% deposit for a house was the norm.
The banks lent people money based on there salaries x 5.  Madness.
The other problem maiden is that sellers are still in denial.
I have been trying to buy a house for the last 6 months.
They are massively overvalued.  I am not being cheeky but any offer i make for a property now will have to take into account further falls that will happen over the next year.

Quote from: lynchbhoy on January 19, 2009, 05:03:38 PM
maybe I am not getting he full picture, but banks IMO are shooting themselves in the foot (slitting themselves in the throat more apt maybe) by stopping conducting business.

There may be a number of businesses out there that are risks and should not be lent to, but this clamming up and lending to nobody is not going to help. It will make things worse.

Imo by not lending, a reasonably secure business coul dhit the rocks, the employees lose jobs, they cant pay the mortgage- it hits the bank full pelt in the stomach there !

While people are paying mortgages, even those in negative equity, as long as they keeppaying the equity will become positive,
the money circulates and the banks, businesses etc all get paid - as long as the banks open some bit for business again.


I disagree with what that ucd 'economist ' says as well.
While he is correct in his opinion that most building workers dont have an education (and are as thick as feck) , the gov could as they are hinting at, start/continue to build new schools, railways, roads etc and a lot of these unemployed builders can be re-employed in this.

Also I have mentioned prev that there could be a lot more jobs created in eco industry, but alas I fear its too soon for that technology to create many jobs as yet.

to overcome this problem , clamming up and hoping it will go away wont work.
We need to trade out recession away. Stopping doing business will destroy any amount of money being thrown around thats supposed to help.


Lynchboy,  property was massively overvalued.  We have seen in the last 10 years(take out the last 18 months), the biggest rise in house prices here yet wages did not keep pace.  The fall in property prices has to be as big as the fall IMO.  Add to this more and more people becoming unemployed , it may take an awful long time for people to clear negative equity.  Whats the point of repaying an interest only mortgage where you're house is worth £70000 less than the mortgage.
I would just give back the keys.
And that is the problem for the banks.  They do not just have the toxic assets of the mega rich, they also have a huge portfolio of First time buyers who the lent out interest only mortgages to.  These are just as toxic.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: armaghniac on January 19, 2009, 06:03:23 PM
QuoteCertainly the house prices here in Dublin are in freefall at the moment.

Houses need to fall until you can buy one with a mortgage of no more than the traditional 3 times your salary or so, or 2.5 times a couple's salary. You can't have prices of €500,000 on this basis, so there is more to come, but people are very reluctant to cut prices. Banks should not lend a large proportion of current prices as these will be 20% less this time next year.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Main Street on January 19, 2009, 06:07:21 PM
Quote from: Rois on January 19, 2009, 05:17:27 PM
Doing an independent business review for a bank at the moment - this is the small-scale dilemma that they're facing but I'm sure it can be multiplied to give an idea of one of the problems facing them.

Bank lent a property developer millions to acquire various sites.  Work started but lack of cash flow meant the planned development can't take place, and there's no point anyway as there's no market for the built-out properties.
Property developer owes payments to different banks to cover interest but is having trouble making them.  He has asked the bank for more money which he says is to put the sites into a proper mothball position.  However, we think he's just trying to spread the cash among the different loans.

The bank can refuse to forward more money and foreclose on the developer, forcing the various companies into administration.  The bank is then left with a number of property assets that they really don't want and that aren't worth the money they advanced anyway. 

It's been mentioned earlier, but it's really Catch 22 for the bank.  Unless they lend more money, they could end up losing more than it would cost to mothball the site.  But this guy is fighting to keep a roof over his family and will no doubt do whatever it takes to make that happen, which could include using the cash to satisfy other banks instead of securing the sites. 

Does a Bank, who is approached to lend that developer some funds, not know exactly what the developer has borrowed elsewhere (using the sites as collateral).
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: whiskeysteve on January 19, 2009, 06:20:49 PM
Lads, hypothetically speaking, what would happen if the very worst came to the very worst and the country goes down a similar road to Iceland? Anyone read anything on the impacts on their country since their collapse?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Rossfan on January 19, 2009, 06:27:19 PM
Quote from: Maiden1 on January 19, 2009, 04:52:08 PM


The US has trillion dollar rescue packages now for the big banks/insurance companies/car companies etc, it is kind of like they are just making up numbers now.  Is there ever a number that it gets to where the government says we don't actually have any more money?

The US Government owes untold "Quadrillions" of dollars to US Banks.
Then when the Banks run out of money the US Government says it will help them out with trillions of dollars it hasnt got.
Now if the US Government paid its debts to the banks in the first place, the banks would have loads of money but to do that the US Govt would first have to borrow it from the Banks etc etc.
So yes they are making up numbers as they go along. :(
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on January 19, 2009, 06:58:18 PM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on January 19, 2009, 06:20:49 PM
Lads, hypothetically speaking, what would happen if the very worst came to the very worst and the country goes down a similar road to Iceland? Anyone read anything on the impacts on their country since their collapse?

Iceland aren't in the Euro so it is hard to know. We would devalue our currency now as we did in 1992 except we cant as we are in the Euro. If we left the Euro we would be Iceland so I dont see that happening.

There are dangerous storm clouds gathering though.

We started with a credit crunch and it caused a property market collapse, which continues. The banks are still struggling with access to credit and liquidity. All the time the bricks and mortar which the loans they gave out were secured against falls in worth bringing on the spectre of negative equity.

Possible things to happen next:

* The Goverment could go ahead as it is hinting and reduce public pay while at the same time increasing taxes. That will put an end to any chance of the property market bottoming out as many new people wont be able to afford their mortgages.
* There will be strikes all over the place and more businesses will close. Then we may even see street protests.
* I dont see how the government can last for long if any of that happens so expect an election or two.
* If all that happens we may need the IMF at which point I would probably emigrate.

Anyone else see a light at the end of this tunnel?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on January 19, 2009, 07:11:54 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on January 19, 2009, 06:27:19 PM
Quote from: Maiden1 on January 19, 2009, 04:52:08 PM


The US has trillion dollar rescue packages now for the big banks/insurance companies/car companies etc, it is kind of like they are just making up numbers now.  Is there ever a number that it gets to where the government says we don't actually have any more money?

The US Government owes untold "Quadrillions" of dollars to US Banks.
Then when the Banks run out of money the US Government says it will help them out with trillions of dollars it hasnt got.
Now if the US Government paid its debts to the banks in the first place, the banks would have loads of money but to do that the US Govt would first have to borrow it from the Banks etc etc.
So yes they are making up numbers as they go along. :(
I'm a bit lost on this one Rois, how and why does the US govt owe quadrillions to US banks and what debts has it not repaid to US banks? 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on January 19, 2009, 07:20:13 PM
Quote from: muppet on January 19, 2009, 06:58:18 PM* If all that happens we may need the IMF at which point I would probably emigrate.

Anyone else see a light at the end of this tunnel?
I read somewhere that the ECB would not allow the IMF to come in, they however could enact their own version of the IMF, basically being in the euro may at least save us that ignominy, the cost will be self determination (but given how we've done on our own, that's probably a bonus!!).

Light at the end of the tunnel - not much at present, it's tough to see us getting out of this, and if we do have to accept handouts from the ECB we can say bye bye to fiscal stimulus packages and we'll have huge swathes of public sector cuts, so that'll hardly help.
Apparently this year see's Anglo having to borrow approx 6bn, BOI 11bn and AIB 6bn, since there's no chance of the capital markets funding that we'll have to (since we're now guarantors).  We may not be able to borrow that however as we already need 10bn for budgetary needs, so it might have to come via a special bailout from Europe, fun times ahead people. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on January 19, 2009, 07:28:26 PM
On the plus side I predict a new music genre will emerge from the bowels of the economic blues.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Main Street on January 19, 2009, 08:10:24 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on January 19, 2009, 07:11:54 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on January 19, 2009, 06:27:19 PM
Quote from: Maiden1 on January 19, 2009, 04:52:08 PM


The US has trillion dollar rescue packages now for the big banks/insurance companies/car companies etc, it is kind of like they are just making up numbers now.  Is there ever a number that it gets to where the government says we don't actually have any more money?

The US Government owes untold "Quadrillions" of dollars to US Banks.
Then when the Banks run out of money the US Government says it will help them out with trillions of dollars it hasnt got.
Now if the US Government paid its debts to the banks in the first place, the banks would have loads of money but to do that the US Govt would first have to borrow it from the Banks etc etc.
So yes they are making up numbers as they go along. :(
I'm a bit lost on this one Rois, how and why does the US govt owe quadrillions to US banks and what debts has it not repaid to US banks? 
Much of the US debt is internal debt.
I think that means ,that it will be one of the last to collapse.
Most of Irelands debt is external debt, the size of this debt means it is in the equivalent of the front line troops, to go over the top in trench warfare, to be wiped out.
This is not just the national debt but also money borrowed from abroad to fund the business and personal credit.
The level of this debt has shot through the ceiling, the ratio per person is the highest in the world after Monaco and some 4 times higher ratio than Zimbabwe.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt)

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: lynchbhoy on January 19, 2009, 08:46:34 PM
Quote from: FermGael on January 19, 2009, 06:01:45 PM

Quote from: lynchbhoy on January 19, 2009, 05:03:38 PM
maybe I am not getting he full picture, but banks IMO are shooting themselves in the foot (slitting themselves in the throat more apt maybe) by stopping conducting business.

There may be a number of businesses out there that are risks and should not be lent to, but this clamming up and lending to nobody is not going to help. It will make things worse.

Imo by not lending, a reasonably secure business coul dhit the rocks, the employees lose jobs, they cant pay the mortgage- it hits the bank full pelt in the stomach there !

While people are paying mortgages, even those in negative equity, as long as they keeppaying the equity will become positive,
the money circulates and the banks, businesses etc all get paid - as long as the banks open some bit for business again.


I disagree with what that ucd 'economist ' says as well.
While he is correct in his opinion that most building workers dont have an education (and are as thick as feck) , the gov could as they are hinting at, start/continue to build new schools, railways, roads etc and a lot of these unemployed builders can be re-employed in this.

Also I have mentioned prev that there could be a lot more jobs created in eco industry, but alas I fear its too soon for that technology to create many jobs as yet.

to overcome this problem , clamming up and hoping it will go away wont work.
We need to trade out recession away. Stopping doing business will destroy any amount of money being thrown around thats supposed to help.


Lynchboy,  property was massively overvalued.  We have seen in the last 10 years(take out the last 18 months), the biggest rise in house prices here yet wages did not keep pace.  The fall in property prices has to be as big as the fall IMO.  Add to this more and more people becoming unemployed , it may take an awful long time for people to clear negative equity.  Whats the point of repaying an interest only mortgage where you're house is worth £70000 less than the mortgage.
I would just give back the keys.
And that is the problem for the banks.  They do not just have the toxic assets of the mega rich, they also have a huge portfolio of First time buyers who the lent out interest only mortgages to.  These are just as toxic.

I'd agree that there are cases like this, but as a guess, three woul dbe many more , the majority that woul dbe slightly down, and as they have to live somewhere - with only a slight saving if they were just paying rent, they will soldier on while they are still employed and living.
So I still reckon its heads down and try to trade through the bleak time.

As I said beofre the only thing that can really scupper all this is if we lose a lot more jobs...

gov should be trying to create more too
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on January 19, 2009, 09:01:44 PM
The Grim Reaper (Turlough O'Sullivan) wants the public sector to shed 70,000 jobs. I dont think that will help some how.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bord na Mona man on January 19, 2009, 11:07:10 PM
Quote from: muppet on January 19, 2009, 09:01:44 PM
The Grim Reaper (Turlough O'Sullivan) wants the public sector to shed 70,000 jobs. I dont think that will help some how.
We might as well have those 70,000 doing a bit of work for the state, sack them and you'll be paying their dole anyway.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bord na Mona man on January 19, 2009, 11:11:10 PM
Quote from: FermGael on January 19, 2009, 06:01:45 PM
The banks lent people money based on there salaries x 5.  Madness.
If only that was the height of the madness.
People were getting 9 or 10 times their salary at the peak.
That's the problem with pyramid schemes though, you have to keep shovelling more and more money into it to keep it alive.
God knows when the banks would have stopped if had managed to keep getting people coming in from the bottom of it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Declan on January 20, 2009, 07:54:35 AM
Nationalise the real banks, foreclose on the developers, take the land banks back into public ownership, start building affordable housing and other national infrastructure projects, let the property market continue to fall back into realistic prices, bring in a "war" time like investment bond and a scheme to minimise the effect of negative equity on recent first time buyers. Take to the streets, sack the government and try and take the first steps in realising the promise of the declaration of independence in time for 2016.
Radical I know but I have heard nothing from any of the commentating class that inspires me with any confidence- See your revolution and raise you 1?

Interesting analysis in the times today froom Morgan Kelly in UCD
Piling Anglo losses on to national debt risks bankrupting the State

ANALYSIS: Anglo Irish is poisoning the banking system and is of no systemic importance. It must not be nationalised; it must be allowed to collapse and with it the developers at the heart of the problem, writes Morgan Kelly

YESTERDAY'S CATASTROPHIC collapse of Irish bank shares stems directly from the Government's proposal to nationalise Anglo Irish Bank. With the Government's finances already buckling under the collapse of our bubble economy, financial markets began to fear that with the added burden of Anglo's debt, the Irish State cannot afford to finance itself, let alone support the remaining national banks.

Facing the imminent collapse of the national financial system, the Government needs to perform a ruthless triage. The worthwhile banks need to be maintained by any means necessary, including nationalisation, while Anglo Irish and Irish Nationwide must be allowed to collapse.

What began as farce has turned swiftly to catastrophe. Last September the Government casually decided to give a small dig-out to some developer pals by guaranteeing the liabilities of Anglo Irish Bank. This spiralled into a proposed nationalisation that would saddle Irish taxpayers with Anglo's bad debts, which could easily exceed €20,000 per household, and starve the other, worthwhile, banks of the capital they need to survive.

At the original crisis meeting on September 29th, Brian Cowen claimed that the blanket guarantee to all six banks was given "on the basis of the advice from those who are competent to so advise the Government".

That does not appear to have been the case.

According to a source of mine very familiar with what happened at the meeting, extending the liability guarantee to Anglo Irish and Irish Nationwide was strongly opposed by representatives of the Central Bank and the Department of Finance (who reportedly came into the meeting with a draft Bill to rescue only four institutions). However, I am told they were overruled by the Taoiseach and the Minister for Finance, who were supported by the Financial Regulator and the Governor of the Central Bank on the grounds that a sudden liquidation of Anglo's assets would not be in the national interest.

It is still worth asking what would have happened if Brian Cowen had listened to the Department of Finance and allowed Anglo Irish to sink? The answer is: very little.

Developers would have gone bust and commercial property would have become more or less worthless, but that is going to happen anyway, with or without Anglo Irish. Depositors of Anglo Irish would have been paid off in full, and the hit would have been taken by the international financial institutions that hold around €22 billion of its bonds.

These bondholders are professional institutional investors who signed up for higher returns on Anglo debt in the knowledge that they were facing higher risks. They are, moreover, insured against their losses through insurance contracts called Credit Default Swaps.

This is the central point about the bailout of Anglo Irish, and one that has not received any attention: the only effect of a bailout is that the Irish taxpayer will make up the losses of Anglo Irish's bondholders instead of the insurers who had already been paid to underwrite the risk.

Why it is necessary to transfer Anglo's losses from the writers of Credit Default Swaps to the Irish taxpayer is something that the Government has not thought to justify.

Indeed, what has been disturbing about the entire Anglo affair is that at no stage has the Government felt it necessary to explain why any bailout was needed, beyond inchoate mutterings about the "systemic importance" of Anglo Irish.

The reality is that Anglo has no importance in the Irish financial system. It existed purely as a vehicle for a few politically connected individuals to place reckless bets on the commercial property market. These property speculators may be of systemic importance to the finances of Fianna Fáil, but their significance ends there.


In ordinary times, piling €30 billion of Anglo Irish losses on to the national debt would be painful and pointless but not impossible. These however are not ordinary times. International debt markets are flooded with governments trying to borrow. The other Irish banks are dangerously short of capital. Most importantly, the Irish economy and government finances are collapsing.

Ireland's growth during the last decade was largely illusory, generated by a property bubble fuelled by reckless bank lending. In 2007 an incredible 20 per cent of our national income and employment came from building houses and commercial property. Next year, the percentage will be approximately zero.

The only industrialised economy that has endured a property and banking crash remotely comparable to what we are beginning to experience was Finland in 1991, where national income fell in total by 15 per cent and unemployment rose by 12 percentage points. As the private sector haemorrhages jobs it is hard to see how Irish national income will fall by less than 20 to 25 per cent in the next few years. Unemployment will easily reach 15 per cent by the end of the summer, and 20 per cent by next year, and will not start to fall until recovery in Britain and elsewhere permits mass emigration to resume. The economy will not begin to grow until real wages fall to competitive international levels, a process that will probably take a decade.

In other words, the Irish economy is facing a decade of stagnation and mass unemployment of the same magnitude as the 1980s, with the difference that the unemployed now have mortgages, car loans and maxed-out credit cards. Faced with an irreversible contraction on this scale, the Government will have grave difficulty borrowing to fund its ordinary expenditure, even after draconian cuts in spending and increases in taxation. In the view of international investors, piling Anglo Irish's gambling losses on top of a spiralling national debt could easily suffice to sink the Irish State into bankruptcy.

In this national crisis, what should be done? The answer is simple. The State must do everything to rescue AIB, Bank of Ireland and Permanent TSB, and let Anglo Irish and Irish Nationwide sink.

The Government must continue to guarantee all deposits at Anglo Irish while announcing that, in the light of continuing revelations of misconduct in the bank and shortcomings in its auditing procedures, it will enter into negotiations with senior and unsecured bondholders.

The proposed Anglo nationalisation marks a decisive watershed in Irish democracy. With it, an Irish government has coolly looked its citizens in the eye and said: "Sorry, but your priorities are not ours."

It is to be hoped that the collapse of other bank shares will serve as a warning to deter the Government from this catastrophic course. I would therefore urge any TDs and Senators who still believe that the Irish State exists to act in the interests of its people to vote against the nationalisation of Anglo Irish and do everything to protect the other banks.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Hound on January 20, 2009, 08:43:31 AM
Shush will yis!!! Our leader has just said (through a spokesman of course) no negative comments allowed!!

And to think there are countries in a worse state than us!

Spain has just lost is Triple A credit rating.
Greece is now six notches below Triple A.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: armaghniac on January 20, 2009, 10:22:33 AM
QuoteAs the private sector haemorrhages jobs it is hard to see how Irish national income will fall by less than 20 to 25 per cent in the next few years. Unemployment will easily reach 15 per cent by the end of the summer, and 20 per cent by next year, and will not start to fall until recovery in Britain and elsewhere permits mass emigration to resume. The economy will not begin to grow until real wages fall to competitive international levels, a process that will probably take a decade

Well that's something to look forward to.
This guy makes George Lee and David McWilliams look like crazy optimists. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: give her dixie on January 20, 2009, 11:40:05 AM
Quote from: give her dixie on October 06, 2008, 01:54:20 PM
With the Irish banks taking another hammering today, and Anglo Irish down another 27%, it doesn't look too good.
I feel that Anglo are in a very bad position, with nearly 80% of their lending involving property, and before the end of this week something radical will happen.
Will they be taken over, or will the Gov bail them out?
Things don't look too rosey this Monday eh?

I was off the mark by a few months.......................
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on January 20, 2009, 12:01:02 PM
AIB are close to the limit now too, they're trading at 32c, BOI are at 33c.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: armaghniac on January 20, 2009, 12:03:58 PM
Not that it is much better in London

Lloyds Banking Group became the latest casualty of the bank sector sell-off today as its shares plunged as much as 47%.

Royal Bank of Scotland steadied a little after yesterday's mammoth 67% fall, but doubts over the Government's second bank bail-out and renewed fears for the sector's health dragged its rivals lower.

Lloyds, created only yesterday from the merger of HBOS and Lloyds TSB, was the worst hit, followed by Barclays down nearly 20%.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: the Deel Rover on January 20, 2009, 12:05:33 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on January 20, 2009, 12:01:02 PM
AIB are close to the limit now too, they're trading at 32c, BOI are at 33c.


:o :o :o :o Holy fcuk who posted a while ago that the only difference between Iceland and Ireland was 1 Letter and 6 months
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on January 20, 2009, 12:07:29 PM
Quote from: the Deel Rover on January 20, 2009, 12:05:33 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on January 20, 2009, 12:01:02 PM
AIB are close to the limit now too, they're trading at 32c, BOI are at 33c.


:o :o :o :o Holy fcuk who posted a while ago that the only difference between Iceland and Ireland was 1 Letter and 6 months

dunno, but they were well off the mark with that ridiculously optimistic prediction of 6 months ;D ;D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: the Deel Rover on January 20, 2009, 12:08:15 PM
yeah tis oly about 4 BB  :o
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Declan on January 20, 2009, 02:28:29 PM
In comparison to some our own very astute posters this is what the great Bertie had to say in September last year:

Mr Ahern added: "Bank of Ireland shares are € 3.80 today. Now if I meet you here next year, or the year after, do you seriously think Bank of Ireland shares will be € 3.80? I'd go out and buy Bank of Ireland shares . . . that's what I'd do."

Wonder did he take his own advice???

The irony of it all is that we are commemorating the 90th anniversary of the first Dail today - wonder what those brave men and women make of their successors
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: the Deel Rover on January 20, 2009, 03:05:41 PM
Quote from: Declan on January 20, 2009, 02:28:29 PM
In comparison to some our own very astute posters this is what the great Bertie had to say in September last year:

Mr Ahern added: "Bank of Ireland shares are € 3.80 today. Now if I meet you here next year, or the year after, do you seriously think Bank of Ireland shares will be € 3.80? I'd go out and buy Bank of Ireland shares . . . that's what I'd do."

Wonder did he take his own advice???

The irony of it all is that we are commemorating the 90th anniversary of the first Dail today - wonder what those brave men and women make of their successors

it twas easy for Bertie to say that sure wouldn't he be buying the shares with paddy the plasterers money , we don't all have friends like Bertie ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: GalwayBayBoy on January 20, 2009, 03:35:15 PM
Do you want the bad news first....

Piling Anglo losses on to national debt risks bankrupting the State

ANALYSIS: Anglo Irish is poisoning the banking system and is of no systemic importance. It must not be nationalised; it must be allowed to collapse and with it the developers at the heart of the problem, writes Morgan Kelly

YESTERDAY'S CATASTROPHIC collapse of Irish bank shares stems directly from the Government's proposal to nationalise Anglo Irish Bank. With the Government's finances already buckling under the collapse of our bubble economy, financial markets began to fear that with the added burden of Anglo's debt, the Irish State cannot afford to finance itself, let alone support the remaining national banks.

Facing the imminent collapse of the national financial system, the Government needs to perform a ruthless triage. The worthwhile banks need to be maintained by any means necessary, including nationalisation, while Anglo Irish and Irish Nationwide must be allowed to collapse.

What began as farce has turned swiftly to catastrophe. Last September the Government casually decided to give a small dig-out to some developer pals by guaranteeing the liabilities of Anglo Irish Bank. This spiralled into a proposed nationalisation that would saddle Irish taxpayers with Anglo's bad debts, which could easily exceed €20,000 per household, and starve the other, worthwhile, banks of the capital they need to survive.

At the original crisis meeting on September 29th, Brian Cowen claimed that the blanket guarantee to all six banks was given "on the basis of the advice from those who are competent to so advise the Government".

That does not appear to have been the case.

According to a source of mine very familiar with what happened at the meeting, extending the liability guarantee to Anglo Irish and Irish Nationwide was strongly opposed by representatives of the Central Bank and the Department of Finance (who reportedly came into the meeting with a draft Bill to rescue only four institutions). However, I am told they were overruled by the Taoiseach and the Minister for Finance, who were supported by the Financial Regulator and the Governor of the Central Bank on the grounds that a sudden liquidation of Anglo's assets would not be in the national interest.

It is still worth asking what would have happened if Brian Cowen had listened to the Department of Finance and allowed Anglo Irish to sink? The answer is: very little.

Developers would have gone bust and commercial property would have become more or less worthless, but that is going to happen anyway, with or without Anglo Irish. Depositors of Anglo Irish would have been paid off in full, and the hit would have been taken by the international financial institutions that hold around €22 billion of its bonds.

These bondholders are professional institutional investors who signed up for higher returns on Anglo debt in the knowledge that they were facing higher risks. They are, moreover, insured against their losses through insurance contracts called Credit Default Swaps.

This is the central point about the bailout of Anglo Irish, and one that has not received any attention: the only effect of a bailout is that the Irish taxpayer will make up the losses of Anglo Irish's bondholders instead of the insurers who had already been paid to underwrite the risk.

Why it is necessary to transfer Anglo's losses from the writers of Credit Default Swaps to the Irish taxpayer is something that the Government has not thought to justify.

Indeed, what has been disturbing about the entire Anglo affair is that at no stage has the Government felt it necessary to explain why any bailout was needed, beyond inchoate mutterings about the "systemic importance" of Anglo Irish.

The reality is that Anglo has no importance in the Irish financial system. It existed purely as a vehicle for a few politically connected individuals to place reckless bets on the commercial property market. These property speculators may be of systemic importance to the finances of Fianna Fáil, but their significance ends there.

In ordinary times, piling €30 billion of Anglo Irish losses on to the national debt would be painful and pointless but not impossible. These however are not ordinary times. International debt markets are flooded with governments trying to borrow. The other Irish banks are dangerously short of capital. Most importantly, the Irish economy and government finances are collapsing.

Ireland's growth during the last decade was largely illusory, generated by a property bubble fuelled by reckless bank lending. In 2007 an incredible 20 per cent of our national income and employment came from building houses and commercial property. Next year, the percentage will be approximately zero.

The only industrialised economy that has endured a property and banking crash remotely comparable to what we are beginning to experience was Finland in 1991, where national income fell in total by 15 per cent and unemployment rose by 12 percentage points. As the private sector haemorrhages jobs it is hard to see how Irish national income will fall by less than 20 to 25 per cent in the next few years. Unemployment will easily reach 15 per cent by the end of the summer, and 20 per cent by next year, and will not start to fall until recovery in Britain and elsewhere permits mass emigration to resume. The economy will not begin to grow until real wages fall to competitive international levels, a process that will probably take a decade.

In other words, the Irish economy is facing a decade of stagnation and mass unemployment of the same magnitude as the 1980s, with the difference that the unemployed now have mortgages, car loans and maxed-out credit cards. Faced with an irreversible contraction on this scale, the Government will have grave difficulty borrowing to fund its ordinary expenditure, even after draconian cuts in spending and increases in taxation. In the view of international investors, piling Anglo Irish's gambling losses on top of a spiralling national debt could easily suffice to sink the Irish State into bankruptcy.

In this national crisis, what should be done? The answer is simple. The State must do everything to rescue AIB, Bank of Ireland and Permanent TSB, and let Anglo Irish and Irish Nationwide sink.

The Government must continue to guarantee all deposits at Anglo Irish while announcing that, in the light of continuing revelations of misconduct in the bank and shortcomings in its auditing procedures, it will enter into negotiations with senior and unsecured bondholders.

The proposed Anglo nationalisation marks a decisive watershed in Irish democracy. With it, an Irish government has coolly looked its citizens in the eye and said: "Sorry, but your priorities are not ours."

It is to be hoped that the collapse of other bank shares will serve as a warning to deter the Government from this catastrophic course. I would therefore urge any TDs and Senators who still believe that the Irish State exists to act in the interests of its people to vote against the nationalisation of Anglo Irish and do everything to protect the other banks.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: GalwayBayBoy on January 20, 2009, 03:35:56 PM
Or the good...

Irish economy 'will lead Europe within a decade'
US economist thinks growth rates will eventually outstrip main rivals

    * Henry McDonald
    * The Observer, Sunday 11 January 2009
    * Article history

Ireland's economy will bounce back from the credit crunch and start to outperform its major European rivals over the next 10 years, one of the United States' leading economists has predicted.

After a week of job losses and warnings yesterday of major cuts in the Republic's public sector, a former adviser to the US government has given a surprisingly upbeat assessment of Ireland's economic prospects for the rest of the decade.

Within the next 10 years Ireland's growth rates will be higher than the economies of main competitors such as Germany and France according to Dr Robert E Kennedy, head of business administration at the University of Michigan.

In a new book on outsourcing in the global economy, Kennedy urges Ireland to accept that "assembly-line manufacturing" would leave the country for eastern Europe and beyond.

Last week US computer giant Dell announced it would axe 1,900 jobs at its Limerick plant and shift its manufacturing to Poland. The job losses at Dell came just 48 hours after 800 jobs at Waterford Crystal were put in jeopardy after the glass maker's parent company, Waterford Wedgwood, went into administration.

Kennedy predicted more jobs would be lost from Ireland's manufacturing base. "Ireland has very high labour costs compared to central and eastern Europe. The average wage, if you divide GDP by population in Ireland, is around $50,000 (€37,000) whereas in Poland, it is $11,000. So in terms of low-skilled jobs involving physically assembling computer parts, in the end Ireland can't compete.

"However, where Ireland has an edge is in its highly skilled, educated workforce. What was interesting about the Dell decision was that it was its manufacturing arm being shifted to Poland. Dell is keeping most of its service and administrative base in Ireland."

The central thesis of Kennedy's book is that advanced economies must shift their activities from manufacturing to services and specialist fields such as financial expertise, biotechnology, innovation and design.

"What is happening to the Irish economy at present, if we leave out the credit crunch, also happened to the United States quite a while ago," he said. "Today in the private sector service and specialist industry makes up about 72 per cent of economic activity, whereas only 16 per cent is manufacturing.

"Ireland is going through the same process. Your success from the mid-1990s was based on attracting big names in manufacturing from the United States. Now they are leaving as your wage levels rise and these companies look eastwards. The next phase the Irish economy will go through is an evolution towards services where you will grow in niche areas of expertise. You have the edge over others in the EU because you have an Anglophone, highly educated workforce as well as a free and open economy. Leaving aside the current global crisis, Ireland still has an excellent business environment."

Dr Kennedy said that within a decade Ireland would be enjoying annual growth rates of 3 per cent, far higher than the EU average. "Economies like Germany and France are not as flexible as the Irish economy. There are far more restrictions and regulations in these larger economies than there are in Ireland. If you asked me what will the picture be like in 10 years' time I would put big money on a bet that Ireland will outperform these larger countries."
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: whiskeysteve on January 20, 2009, 04:09:30 PM
If the economy is to follow that optimistic path there needs to be a concerted effort to move towards much more esoteric services like the biotechnology as mentioned. The rest of the world is catching up fast in their capabilities, particularly in the information technology sector where we can't compete with foreign wages. It is absolutely vital to evolve ahead of the game in the next decade and not to plough more money into many of our current sectors whose days will be numbered. And I don't just mean manufacturing. Computers with high speed internet connections are booming in terms of availability in the developing world and we won't be long in getting squeezed in terms of service and administration skills
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Declan on January 20, 2009, 04:24:34 PM
Had a chuckle at this

http://sites.google.com/site/thestenner/ (http://sites.google.com/site/thestenner/)

Also
NEW STOCK MARKET TERMS

BULL MARKET—A random market movement causing an investor to mistake himself for a financial genius.

BEAR MARKET—A 6 to 18 month period when the kids get no allowance, the wife gets no jewelry, and the husband gets no sex.

VALUE INVESTING—The art of buying low and selling lower.

P/E RATIO—The percentage of investors wetting their pants as the market keeps crashing.

BROKER—What my broker has made me.

STANDARD & POOR—Your life in a nutshell.

STOCK ANALYST—Idiot who just downgraded your stock.

STOCK SPLIT—When your ex-wife and her lawyer split your assets equally between themselves.

FINANCIAL PLANNER—A guy whose phone has been disconnected.

MARKET CORRECTION—The day after you buy stocks.

CASH FLOW-- The movement your money makes as it disappears down the toilet.

YAHOO—What you yell after selling it to some poor sucker for $240 per share.

WINDOWS—What you jump out of when you're the sucker who bought Yahoo @ $240 per share.

INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR—Past year investor who's now locked up in a nuthouse.

PROFIT—An archaic word no longer in use.

What's the definition of optimism?
An Investment Banker ironing five shirts on a Sunday evening.

What can you buy on eBay for $1.
An Icelandic bank but they'll get you on the shipping costs.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: give her dixie on January 20, 2009, 07:33:57 PM
Well, at least the banks havn't got much more to loose in their Capitalisation.

Febuary 2007 total market capitalisation 59.44 billion euro.
January 2009 total market capitalisation 1.65 billion euro.

One more month should see the figure near to zero.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: armaghniac on January 20, 2009, 08:38:49 PM
After all their sponsorship over the years perhaps the GAA should sponsor a bank.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: comethekingdom on January 20, 2009, 09:57:31 PM
Letter from today's Indo - How true!

Tuesday January 20 2009

Bertie got us into this awful mess

IT'S time the finger was pointed at the real culprit of the mess in which we find ourselves -- Bertie.

His tent at the Galway races. His developer mates, selling tenement rooms to young couples for a half million euro, no control over the amount of sub-standard houses built by imported labour.

Estates built around the country in the middle of nowhere, not even a corner shop within miles.

The lies and deceit of Bertie and his ministers. Thousands of euro wasted on make-up alone for this clown; and he's still been driven around like he was Lord Muck. When will the Irish people wake up to this dosser and his mates?

Time for the people to demand the democratic republic we deserve instead of the corrupt one we have.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Rossfan on January 20, 2009, 10:46:11 PM
Unfortunately the majority of Irish( 26 cos) voters knocked each other down to return that arsehole and his mates  to office in 2002 and 2007.
Sure we all thought the gravy train would never end as we went on pretending we had the best economy in the world just because the FFBuilders were selling houses for about 3 times their real value based on the economy that they were part of.
We foolishly borrowed orselves silly and nobody ever stopped and thought -- how can this last?
The emptiest country in the EU(apart from the mainly uninhabitable Sweded/Finland) with the dearest houses ...did we think it could keep on going till  the average house would cost around €1m by 2013 or so. Did we ever think that the day would come when nobody could afford to buy a house?
I presume BuilderFF's answer now will be slavish drooling around the White house on St Patrick's day looking for loads of visas so as we can all emigrate instead of trying to do something for ourselves.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on January 21, 2009, 12:20:18 AM
Quote from: comethekingdom on January 20, 2009, 09:57:31 PM
Letter from today's Indo - How true!

Tuesday January 20 2009

Bertie got us into this awful mess

IT'S time the finger was pointed at the real culprit of the mess in which we find ourselves -- Bertie.

His tent at the Galway races. His developer mates, selling tenement rooms to young couples for a half million euro, no control over the amount of sub-standard houses built by imported labour.

Estates built around the country in the middle of nowhere, not even a corner shop within miles.

The lies and deceit of Bertie and his ministers. Thousands of euro wasted on make-up alone for this clown; and he's still been driven around like he was Lord Muck. When will the Irish people wake up to this dosser and his mates?

Time for the people to demand the democratic republic we deserve instead of the corrupt one we have.



He'll be president in a couple of years for God's sake !!!!!!!!  ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Declan on January 21, 2009, 07:29:32 AM
Anyone see our esteemed Minister of Finance on Prime Time last night? What a joke. Who is he trying to fool by saying Anglo's book is fine and that the directors loans was the issue that brought the bank down? It was in its hole. . Does he think we're all stupid? Also where the hell is Cowen in all this? Leadership me arse. Isn't Bertie still a TD? The architect of it all hiding in the shadows. Give me strength >:(
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Hound on January 21, 2009, 08:07:35 AM
Quote from: Declan on January 21, 2009, 07:29:32 AM
Anyone see our esteemed Minister of Finance on Prime Time last night? What a joke. Who is he trying to fool by saying Anglo's book is fine and that the directors loans was the issue that brought the bank down? It was in its hole. . Does he think we're all stupid? Also where the hell is Cowen in all this? Leadership me arse. Isn't Bertie still a TD? The architect of it all hiding in the shadows. Give me strength >:(
Surely somebody called him on this?
I don't know who was presenting or who was on the panel, but anybody who didnt call him a fool is either a fool themselves or has no balls. If thats exactly what Lenihan said.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Declan on January 21, 2009, 02:47:41 PM
Any chance we could get this guy to talk to the 2 Brians?

US financial losses from the credit crisis may reach $3.6 trillion, suggesting the banking system is "effectively insolvent," said New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini, who predicted last year's economic crisis.
"I've found that credit losses could peak at a level of $3.6tn for US institutions, half of them by banks and broker dealers," Roubini said at a conference in Dubai yesterday.
"If that's true, it means the US banking system is effectively insolvent because it starts with a capital of $1.4tn. This is a systemic banking crisis."
Losses and writedowns at financial companies worldwide have risen to more than $1tn since the US subprime mortgage market collapsed in 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
President Barack Obama will have to use as much as $1tn of public funds to shore up the capitalisation of the banking sector, following the $350bn injection by the Bush administration, said Roubini. Congress last year approved a $700bn rescue fund, of which half remains to be disbursed.
Bank of America, the largest US bank by assets, posted a quarterly loss of $1.79bn last week, its first since 1991, and received $138bn in emergency government funds. Citigroup posted an $8.29bn fourth-quarter loss, completing its worst year, and plans to split in two under boss Vikram Pandit's plan to rebuild a capital base eroded by the credit crisis.
"The problems of Citi, Bank of America and others suggest the system is bankrupt," Roubini said. "In Europe, it's the same thing."
Stocks in Europe, Canada and Brazil dropped yesterday on speculation that government efforts to shore up the financial industry will fail to stem the deepening global recession.
The UK's RBS said it expects to post a loss of as much as £28bn for 2008 and the government got ready to raise its stake in the lender.
Oil prices will trade between $30 and $40 a barrel all year, Roubini predicted.
"I see commodities falling overall another 15-20pc ," Roubini said. "This outlook for commodity prices is beneficial for oil importers, it's going to imply that economic recovery might occur faster, but for oil exporters this will be very negative.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on January 27, 2009, 10:29:44 AM
Meetings being held at Terex Finlay, Dungannon and Omagh this morning - layoffs expected. Hopefully it won't be real bad news.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on January 27, 2009, 12:14:32 PM
Engineering firm is to lay off 90 

The engineering company is based in Dungannon
A County Tyrone engineering company has said it is to make 90 people redundant following a drop in orders.

Powerscreen, which is based in Dungannon, had already made 70 workers redundant at the end of 2008.

Powerscreen, which manufactures mobile screening equipment used in the construction, mining and recycling industries employs 490 staff.

The announcement follows a review of global operations by Powerscreen's American parent company, Terex.

Terex also owns Terex Finlay in Omagh, which employs more than 300 people making similar machinery, and another company, Terex Pegson in Leicestershire.

Terex has said it is reorganising the business because of the slowdown in orders worldwide.

In all, there will be more than 300 redundancies, more than 200 of them in Leicestershire.

At present, it is thought that no jobs will be lost at the Terex Finlay plant in Omagh.


Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: give her dixie on January 29, 2009, 03:49:47 PM
Doesn't look good for the Quinn Group with The Anglo fiasco.


Ireland may probe Quinn's Anglo Irish deals -PM

2009-01-28 14:01 (UTC) 

By Andras Gergely

DUBLIN, Jan 28 (Reuters) - Ireland may investigate transactions by the Quinn Group, a family-run conglomerate, in Anglo Irish Bank before the country's third biggest lender was nationalised, Prime Minister Brian Cowen said on Wednesday.

'As a result of the due diligence process recently undertaken on behalf of the (finance) minister, certain matters in connection with transactions involving the Quinn stake in the bank came to the attention of the minister which may warrant further investigation by the financial regulator,' Cowen told a parliamentary debate.

The Quinn Group, which has interests in property, hotels and insurance, said it was ready to provide any information requested by authorities.

'As previously outlined individual Quinn family members acquired a collective holding amounting to 15 percent of Anglo Irish Bank in July 2008,' Sean Quinn, chairman of the group, said in a statement late on Tuesday. 'This position remains unchanged. The regulator is and has been aware of this investment since that date.'

A spokesman said on Wednesday the Quinns had no further comment.

Cowen said that 'an overhang of shares' in Anglo Irish held by an investor last year came to be seen by the bank and the market as a source of instability.

'The institution (Anglo Irish) was seeking some resolution of this issue,' Cowen said. 'Any significant corporate governance issue that comes to life will be investigated by the appropriate authorities.'

The Irish Times newspaper reported, citing sources at the Department of Finance, that the Quinn Group had built up a stake of more than 20 percent in Anglo Irish via contracts for difference (CFDs), which do not have to be publicly declared, and offloaded a stake of 10 percent to wealthy clients of Anglo Irish, without placing them in the market.

The newspaper said that this private sale, which was carried out to avoid depressing the share price, was being investigated by the financial regulator.

'There are a number of strands to our investigation into matters at Anglo,' a spokeswoman for the regulator said on Tuesday without giving further details. The regulator was not immediately available for further comment on Wednesday.


'VERY MUCH REGRETTED'

One of the largest family-owned businesses in Ireland, the Quinn Group said in July it had bought a regular 15 percent stake in Anglo Irish after unwinding CFDs. The shares were trading around 5 euros ($6.63) each at that time.

Anglo Irish closed at 22 euro cents before the government announced it would take over the bank earlier this month to prevent a possible collapse.

A government-appointed assessor will determine what the banks is worth but Finance Minister Brian Lenihan has said shareholders may not get anything. Quinn's chairman has since said his investment was 'very much regretted'.

Ireland's financial regulator last week called for new legislation to stop investors from buying big stakes in companies without the need to declare them, using CFDs.

Irish media has reported that the Quinn Group is also one of Anglo Irish Bank's biggest debtors. The Quinn Group has declined to comment on that.

In a separate incident that led to the nationalisation of the bank, then Anglo Irish Bank chairman Sean FitzPatrick revealed in December he had misled shareholders about 84 million euros he had borrowed from the bank.

Sharp falls in Anglo's share price in September had also been a major contributor to Ireland's decision to provide a state guarantee for more than 400 billion euros of bank debt.



Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: An Gaeilgoir on January 29, 2009, 04:08:16 PM
 a friend of mine worked up in the higher levels of the organisation mentioned the Quinn deal las October,  she bailed out at christmas, she claims that this is only the tip of the iceberg.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on January 29, 2009, 04:11:45 PM
Quote from: An Gaeilgoir on January 29, 2009, 04:08:16 PM
a friend of mine worked up in the higher levels of the organisation mentioned the Quinn deal las October,  she bailed out at christmas, she claims that this is only the tip of the iceberg.


Can you tell us more ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: give her dixie on January 29, 2009, 04:12:07 PM
If this is the sort of information coming out now, and they are only scratching the surface, what lies ahead when the real probing starts?
The Financial regulators will have a lot to answer for before this goes away.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on January 29, 2009, 04:17:06 PM
Was the Financial regulator doing anything at all ? Were there any control measures in place at all ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: ludermor on January 29, 2009, 04:39:33 PM
Can someone explain in plain english what the craic is with Quinn and anglo
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: give her dixie on January 29, 2009, 04:56:26 PM
Here is a great article in todays Irish Independent

By Dearbhail McDonald Legal Editor


Saturday January 17 2009

IF Sean FitzPatrick lived in New York, he would already have done the perp walk.

The perp walk is the American slang term for the police practice of parading an arrested suspect in handcuffs before the media. Arrested, released on bail if he's lucky, the assets of this alleged perpetrator -- "the perp" -- would be frozen. His passport seized, FitzPatrick might be contemplating his bankrupt future from the comfort of his home, where -- under house arrest -- his every move would be monitored.

FitzPatrick could be preparing a defence to any number of criminal charges being pursued by the US Department of Justice, assisted by the Securities and Exchange Commission: conspiracy, mail and wire fraud, revenue recognition breaches.

The list is endless. Just ask any US executive ensnared in the post-Enron corporate cleansing crusade who is serving up to 40 years in prison.

Anglo is Ireland's Enron.

The descent of the energy trader shattered investor confidence, devastated corporate morale and left markets reeling.

So too with Anglo, which has brought our banking sector to its knees and led the New York Times to label Ireland as "the wild west of European finance".

What of Ireland's company laws? When was the last time any banker was handcuffed and led to jail for perpetrating a fraud? The answer is never.

What happened when the Supreme Court found last year that former DCC boss Jim Flavin was in possession of insider information when he traded stock?

Insider dealing, said Judge Nial Fennelly, was a fraud on the market, but Flavin's hands had to be prised from the helm of DCC and the only handcuffs that featured in the epic DCC-Fyffes saga were golden ones.

When he stepped down as chairman of Anglo, Sean FitzPatrick insisted that he did nothing illegal. Irish law firms circling angry shareholders in anticipation of quasi-class action lawsuits beg to differ.

Was FitzPatrick guilty of fraud? By any stretch of the imagination, his actions were fraudulent. Sean FitzPatrick acted with intent to deceive.

For eight years he hid colossal loans from shareholders. At a basic moral and corporate level, if not a legal one, he perpetrated a fraud on the shareholders. Would a shareholder have bought shares if he knew director's loans, ie, liabilities, were being concealed? Probably not. Therefore FitzPatrick's actions, if disclosed, may have impacted on Anglo's share price. The market, arguably, was distorted by his deception.

'McCarthyism'

FitzPatrick, who once branded Ireland's lax regulatory regime as "corporate McCarthyism", had a duty to ensure the annual accounts were a true view of Anglo's financial affairs.

What about the remaining members of the board? What knowledge had they of FitzPatrick's warehousing scheme?

What about the auditors, Ernst and Young? Under Irish laws they are not required to "search" for possible offences but they are required to react to information coming into their possession. How did they not know about FitzPatrick's loans?

Ireland's laissez-faire attitude towards corporate malfeasance stands in stark contrast to the zeal of our American cousins.

It is notoriously difficult to prosecute fraud, and our laws and precedents are out of date.

The Government is due to publish a new company law. Its aim is to enhance Ireland's reputation as an attractive place to do business. After Anglo, that's an incredibly big ask.

- Dearbhail McDonald Legal Editor

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on January 29, 2009, 05:28:55 PM
Quote from: orangeman on January 29, 2009, 04:17:06 PM
Was the Financial regulator doing anything at all ? Were there any control measures in place at all ?

In my experience regulators exist in Ireland to facilitate certain businessmen and of course the Government.

When it comes to regulation we are up there with Liberia and Panama.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: the Deel Rover on January 30, 2009, 03:30:39 PM
any one see primetime last night i only caught the last 10 minutes but that was enough for me think they were talking about anglo irish. Mick Wallace the builder he off the mad hair and wexford youths boss makes the comment brazen as you like "well i'm not making any interest repayments on my loans " well i nearly put me shoe through the tv these fcukers who got us in to this mess aren't making any repayments on their massive loans while the rest of us Joe Soaps have to bail them out .
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: bcarrier on January 30, 2009, 04:00:46 PM
Strange times indeed.

I have heard that those developers/builders/individuals who have run their affairs prudently and have assets / means to pay are getting screwed on fees and margin.

Meanwhile those who are completely overstreched and unable to pay are having interest reduced as the banks do not wish to classify loans as non performing.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on January 30, 2009, 04:44:32 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on January 30, 2009, 04:00:46 PM
Strange times indeed.

I have heard that those developers/builders/individuals who have run their affairs prudently and have assets / means to pay are getting screwed on fees and margin.

Meanwhile those who are completely overstreched and unable to pay are having interest reduced as the banks do not wish to classify loans as non performing.

This problem is going to spread to all of society.

Those who have reasonable mortgages/finances and the ability to pay their way will now have to pick up the tab for the financial meltdown, forcing lots of them into difficulty. Increased taxes and Property taxes on top of PAYE, PRSI, Health levy and all the stealth taxes we have, not to mention the other new taxes being talked about such as Dublin City and Carbon taxes will screw up the country royally.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: the Deel Rover on January 30, 2009, 04:54:03 PM
Quote from: muppet on January 30, 2009, 04:44:32 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on January 30, 2009, 04:00:46 PM
Strange times indeed.

I have heard that those developers/builders/individuals who have run their affairs prudently and have assets / means to pay are getting screwed on fees and margin.

Meanwhile those who are completely overstreched and unable to pay are having interest reduced as the banks do not wish to classify loans as non performing.

This problem is going to spread to all of society.

Those who have reasonable mortgages/finances and the ability to pay their way will now have to pick up the tab for the financial meltdown, forcing lots of them into difficulty. Increased taxes and Property taxes on top of PAYE, PRSI, Health levy and all the stealth taxes we have, not to mention the other new taxes being talked about such as Dublin City and Carbon taxes will screw up the country royally.


Yeah the banks are bailed out, the developers are bailed out while the man on the street is made to suffer because of their greed
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Barna Bee on January 30, 2009, 04:59:31 PM
3 new entities that you will all hear about next week ....S & P , Moody's and Fitch .........looks like Ireland is going to loose it's soverign ratings from these in the next week or so ...especially if the Govt does not apply immediate measures to cover the shortfall in GNP ....not very good news for ireland

This big bail out will really begin to cost the state when the country needs to borrow from the World bank ......expect the recession to last for a lot longer .........
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Barna Bee on January 30, 2009, 05:05:34 PM
why not pay a tax based on the sq foot of the house .....say 50cents per sq foot per year.....average semi d is about 1,500sq foot ....therefore 750 euro as a tax rate .

The lads with the big houses get hit for more

This is a bit like a Uk style council tax ..
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: the Deel Rover on January 30, 2009, 05:10:00 PM
Quote from: Barna Bee on January 30, 2009, 04:59:31 PM
3 new entities that you will all hear about next week ....S & P , Moody's and Fitch .........looks like Ireland is going to loose it's soverign ratings from these in the next week or so ...especially if the Govt does not apply immediate measures to cover the shortfall in GNP ....not very good news for ireland

This big bail out will really begin to cost the state when the country needs to borrow from the World bank ......expect the recession to last for a lot longer .........

UPDATE 3-Moody's warns Ireland could lose AAA rating

 

By Carmel Crimmins

DUBLIN, Jan 30 (Reuters) - Moody's credit rating agency warned Ireland on Friday it was in danger of losing its prized AAA sovereign debt rating, piling pressure on Prime Minister Brian Cowen to cut spending and shore up the public purse.

The negative outlook echoes a similar warning from Standard & Poor's earlier this month and reflects the dangers of a deepening recession and the government's potentially damaging exposure to the banking sector.

Cowen, already under fire for his handling of the economic crisis, wants Ireland to avoid the fate of fellow euro zone members Greece, Spain and Portugal which have all had their ratings cut by S&P amid buckling public finances.

Moody's senior analyst Dietmar Hornung said if the government secured its targeted 2 billion euros ($2.57 billion) worth of spending cuts in talks with unions, that would be helpful but not sufficient to secure the triple A rating, which Ireland has had since 1998.

'This is just one piece of the puzzle,' Hornung told Reuters in an interview.

'This negative outlook is our opinion as to the likely direction of the Irish rating over the medium-term. You cannot pin it to one thing.'

Even with targeted spending cuts, Ireland is facing a budget deficit of 9.5 percent of GDP this year, more than three times the European Union's limit, as a collapse in the housing market hits crucial property-related taxes and spills over into the broader economy.


RISKIEST ISSUER OF DEBT

Ireland's 440 billion euro guarantee on liabilities of all major Irish lenders, more than twice the country's annual economic output, and its nationalisation of top 3 lender Anglo Irish Bank earlier this month exposes taxpayers to the risk of rising bad debts as the property market keeps spiralling down.

House prices in Ireland fell 9.1 percent last year, according to the permanent tsb/ESRI house price index which on Friday forecast a further 10 percent fall this year.

Moody's and S&P both highlighted this exposure in their negative outlooks.

Fitch, which maintained its stable outlook, warned that its more sanguine view was based on Ireland's relatively low net debt levels and the fiscal cost of financial sector support not exceeding expectations.

The government has said it will invest up to 10 billion euros into its banking sector using money held in the national pension fund.

'This is the first negative ratings action Moody's have taken on a euro zone sovereign for years, although they did previously take Belgium off positive outlook,' said Ciaran O'Hagan, strategist at Societe Generale in London.

Moody's view is that a sovereign's willingness and ability to bail out a bank will often exceed its willingness to pay its own debts. This is because the macroeconomic consequences of a systemic banking crisis will generally exceed the impact of a domestic bond default.

'In the case of highly exposed countries like Ireland and Belgium, this effectively is serious,' said O'Hagan.

Underlining how far sentiment towards the former 'Celtic Tiger' economy has fallen, credit monitor CMA DataVision said on Friday that investors now view Ireland as the riskiest issuer of government debt in the euro zone.

Irish 5-year credit default swaps hit 262.6 basis points on Friday, indicating a cumulative probability of default of 20.6 percent, according to CMA. Greece was previously seen as the riskiest euro zone debt issuer.

The yield spread of 10-yr Irish bonds over core German Bunds -- another measurement of risk -- widened to 228 basis points on Friday following Moody's statement, a session high.








Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: the Deel Rover on January 30, 2009, 05:20:01 PM
Quote from: muppet on January 30, 2009, 04:44:32 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on January 30, 2009, 04:00:46 PM
Strange times indeed.

I have heard that those developers/builders/individuals who have run their affairs prudently and have assets / means to pay are getting screwed on fees and margin.

Meanwhile those who are completely overstreched and unable to pay are having interest reduced as the banks do not wish to classify loans as non performing.

This problem is going to spread to all of society.

Those who have reasonable mortgages/finances and the ability to pay their way will now have to pick up the tab for the financial meltdown, forcing lots of them into difficulty. Increased taxes and Property taxes on top of PAYE, PRSI, Health levy and all the stealth taxes we have, not to mention the other new taxes being talked about such as Dublin City and Carbon taxes will screw up the country royally.

on the issue of property tax if they were to introduce it how would they collect it ?Would you billed once a year? What if like the delvelopers you couldn't be ARSED paying it what would happen?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on January 30, 2009, 05:31:18 PM
Quote from: the Deel Rover on January 30, 2009, 05:20:01 PM
Quote from: muppet on January 30, 2009, 04:44:32 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on January 30, 2009, 04:00:46 PM
Strange times indeed.

I have heard that those developers/builders/individuals who have run their affairs prudently and have assets / means to pay are getting screwed on fees and margin.

Meanwhile those who are completely overstreched and unable to pay are having interest reduced as the banks do not wish to classify loans as non performing.

This problem is going to spread to all of society.

Those who have reasonable mortgages/finances and the ability to pay their way will now have to pick up the tab for the financial meltdown, forcing lots of them into difficulty. Increased taxes and Property taxes on top of PAYE, PRSI, Health levy and all the stealth taxes we have, not to mention the other new taxes being talked about such as Dublin City and Carbon taxes will screw up the country royally.

on the issue of property tax if they were to introduce it how would they collect it ?Would you billed once a year? What if like the delvelopers you couldn't be ARSED paying it what would happen?

Why do people always suggest new taxes (that usually don't affect themselves).

We should have accountability for the financial mess as a top prority and we should demand as a minimum efficiency and value for money in the public service.

Making up new taxes for each bad set of figures just compounds the lack of good decision-making and the inefficiency.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on January 30, 2009, 05:50:47 PM
It definitely looks like a UK style rates / property tax is on its way - € 1000 a year per house on average.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Declan on January 30, 2009, 07:37:50 PM
Quote.S & P , Moody's and Fitch

Yeah those reputable standard rating agencies that rated all the repackaged subprime mortgages as triple A secure investments - Part of the problem not the solution. Bastards the lot of them.

Any chance anyone could take them all out in Davos this week?

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on January 30, 2009, 07:40:19 PM
Quote from: Declan on January 30, 2009, 07:37:50 PM
Quote.S & P , Moody's and Fitch

Yeah those reputable standard rating agencies that rated all the repackaged subprime mortgages as triple A secure investments - Part of the problem not the solution. b**tards the lot of them.

Any chance anyone could take them all out in Davos this week?



Get them to launch a few rockets.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: An Gaeilgoir on January 30, 2009, 10:25:29 PM
Quote from: Barna Bee on January 30, 2009, 05:05:34 PM
why not pay a tax based on the sq foot of the house .....say 50cents per sq foot per year.....average semi d is about 1,500sq foot ....therefore 750 euro as a tax rate .

The lads with the big houses get hit for more

This is a bit like a Uk style council tax ..

I'm begining to think this property tax should be called "envy tax", i am really getting browned off with people slagging off people who did well during the boom years, of course there were loads of chancers who broke the rules and made quick cash. There were alos a lot of ordinary people who did not go on holidays 3 or 4 times a year, buy a new car every year or have the latest designer handbag every month. These people took advantage of the cheap money that was available built up a portfolio of properties, made sacrifices and are now been penalised for their endevours. i for example have 2 properties along with my primary residence... both my self and my wife are on medium incomes, we drive a 99 and a 01 car and have not been on a holiday in 3 years. we have scrimped and saved every penny to be in the situtaiton we are in now. I have friends who during the boom claimed they couldn't afford to buy a house, but they could afford an A3 and A4, prada handbags, 2 or 3 holidays a year but couldnt save up to put a deposit on a house.  it was often joked that myself and the missus been the only two people in the area with cars dating from the last century. I am in the construction industry, i have a trade but changed career about 5 years ago and went back to college and am finishing my degree this summer. I never got any help from anyone to get to the position  i am in now. I dont have a pension as what i am building up, will all going well be my pension. There have been a lot of sleepless nights during the past 4 years all about money, but thankfully it has worked out. Had i put my money into gold or art or wine, there would be no levy, so why is it that property is all of a sudden such a dirty business.Also it really grates me that people are taking such pleasure from seeing people who were doing well now going under especially in the construction industry, i 'm not talking about the large scale developers who owe hundereds of millions, but ordinary people, a lot with not much fromal education finally getting a chance in this country to be entrupenuers and own their own businesses, i remember in the late eighties every one form my area emigrating and the only time we had a football team was st. stephens day when the emigrants were home. I realise that there has to be taxation changes, but let it be fair about it. I have no problem paying tax and in my opinion if there is a property tax on rental properties it will only be added on to the rent, thus increasing costs for renters. But taxing people just becuause they have a large house, regardless of their income or means is madness. There are a lot of millionaires living in small houses with no mortgages and a lot of people with huge morgages and not much income living in huge houses. I know that most of you will completly disagree with me on the above points, but everybodys situation is different and a blanket taxation policy will not be fair or equitable. Thank god i'm not in government.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Rossfan on January 30, 2009, 10:35:20 PM
What is  the average charge on a domestic property in the north or in England?
Every report the Govt had on taxation for the last 30 or so years recommended  some type of property tax as is  the norm in most Countries but with BuilderFF in Govt most of the time that was never going to happen here.
They even kept giving tax breaks for houses when there was a bubble going on with astronomical prices being asked and given. The end result is a load of half finished Estates scattered all over Leitrim,Longford and Ros.
Now we have Finneran from Ros, Junior Housing Minister going to lease all the unsold houses for 10 years to use as Social housing. Then after 10 years when prices will have picked up again we'll give the houses back to the Builders to sell.
You couldnt make it up.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: tyronefan on January 30, 2009, 10:43:10 PM
ireland has a property tax  its called stamp duty   how times do they want to tax us on the same thing. 

do we need so many td's to sit in dublin  we have a td for every 30,000 (approx) people in Ireland  In america thay have a member of congress for every 500,000 people  cut back a bit on the politicians and all the costs they incur would be a good start to saving money and give a break on double taxation
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Tyrones own on January 31, 2009, 12:20:47 AM
I heard on the news on the way home there that Waterford Crystal has gone in to bankruptcy :o... I think 200 jobs gone,
I would have thought that would have been mentioned here, any truth to it?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: armaghniac on January 31, 2009, 01:12:10 AM
Stamp duty should be reduced. Instead of hitting people for a huge bill when they move, have a constant tax every year so that the government finances don't swing from boom to bust.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: thebigfella on January 31, 2009, 02:55:42 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on January 31, 2009, 01:12:10 AM
Stamp duty should be reduced. Instead of hitting people for a huge bill when they move, have a constant tax every year so that the government finances don't swing from boom to bust.

???? - I don't get what your proposing, are you saying the governments finances is to blame for the current state of the economy?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: pintsofguinness on January 31, 2009, 10:27:21 AM
Do you not pay any sort of rates/council tax in the south?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: the Deel Rover on January 31, 2009, 10:33:40 AM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on January 31, 2009, 10:27:21 AM
Do you not pay any sort of rates/council tax in the south?

not at the moment pog, you pay for the waste disposal directly to the company there is no water charges at the moment however that is been phased in .
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: pintsofguinness on January 31, 2009, 10:39:35 AM
Quote from: the Deel Rover on January 31, 2009, 10:33:40 AM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on January 31, 2009, 10:27:21 AM
Do you not pay any sort of rates/council tax in the south?

not at the moment pog, you pay for the waste disposal directly to the company there is no water charges at the moment however that is been phased in .
I thought that. 
I dont agree with it but I'm sure yous can have much complaints, the North pay rates, the English pay council tax.
Though I think it's ridiculous. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: the Deel Rover on January 31, 2009, 10:45:34 AM
How much would you pay in rates pog? How is it worked out?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Barna Bee on January 31, 2009, 02:39:00 PM
Quote from: the Deel Rover on January 31, 2009, 10:45:34 AM
How much would you pay in rates pog? How is it worked out?

This gives you an idea ...

I live in a flat with my wife and baby in central London...the flat is circa 1,500sq feet, 3 bed , 2 bathrrom , balconies etc .

We pay £157 per month for the 3 of us in council tax ....£1,884 per annum.
The tax is worked out from a set of bands ...think there are about 5-6 bands. I am in the middle band approx
Some boroughs have a giher council tax...it depends on 2 things ....number pf people living in the boprough and the services available in the borough.

Council tax covers...bin collection, and street cleaning etc

It is set up as a standing order monthly payable to the local council...if you live in the area for a while and own a propert there ...you won't get away without paying it.

Everyone is liable ...not just home owers but renters too...students don't pay though.

It does not cover water charges which one has to pay for ....water in and water out ...to thames valley water inmy case
parking permit for the area if I want to park my car on the street...£100 per year(although I park the car indoors)

Other things of note

Stamp duty is lower here ...3-%-6-% I think

Fuel..gas and elec are lower here.

Most people in London (central don't need cars as transports is good)...the congestion charge for travelling into the C zone Mon to Friday is arip off...£8 per day and you never get anay without paying it....this will go up soon for gas guzzlers.

Sounds to me like a council tax thing might suit Ireland


Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on January 31, 2009, 04:56:16 PM
Quote from: Barna Bee on January 31, 2009, 02:39:00 PM
Quote from: the Deel Rover on January 31, 2009, 10:45:34 AM
How much would you pay in rates pog? How is it worked out?

This gives you an idea ...

I live in a flat with my wife and baby in central London...the flat is circa 1,500sq feet, 3 bed , 2 bathrrom , balconies etc .

We pay £157 per month for the 3 of us in council tax ....£1,884 per annum.
The tax is worked out from a set of bands ...think there are about 5-6 bands. I am in the middle band approx
Some boroughs have a giher council tax...it depends on 2 things ....number pf people living in the boprough and the services available in the borough.

Council tax covers...bin collection, and street cleaning etc

It is set up as a standing order monthly payable to the local council...if you live in the area for a while and own a propert there ...you won't get away without paying it.

Everyone is liable ...not just home owers but renters too...students don't pay though.

It does not cover water charges which one has to pay for ....water in and water out ...to thames valley water inmy case
parking permit for the area if I want to park my car on the street...£100 per year(although I park the car indoors)

Other things of note

Stamp duty is lower here ...3-%-6-% I think

Fuel..gas and elec are lower here.

Most people in London (central don't need cars as transports is good)...the congestion charge for travelling into the C zone Mon to Friday is arip off...£8 per day and you never get anay without paying it....this will go up soon for gas guzzlers.

Sounds to me like a council tax thing might suit Ireland




A good balanced comparison Barna Bee, rather than the I pay this tax therefore you should.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: bcarrier on January 31, 2009, 11:37:08 PM
Stamp duty is 1%  up to £250K  in uk.



Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Declan on February 02, 2009, 02:43:18 PM
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/dan-roberts-on-business-blog/interactive/2009/jan/29/financial-pyramid (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/dan-roberts-on-business-blog/interactive/2009/jan/29/financial-pyramid)

Fascinating piece on where did all the money go
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on February 02, 2009, 02:51:15 PM
Quote from: Declan on February 02, 2009, 02:43:18 PM
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/dan-roberts-on-business-blog/interactive/2009/jan/29/financial-pyramid (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/dan-roberts-on-business-blog/interactive/2009/jan/29/financial-pyramid)

Fascinating piece on where did all the money go

That is scary. There is a huge tsunami on the way and we are arguing about umbrellas.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on February 02, 2009, 03:08:47 PM
Scary enough but where does inflation come into this ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on February 02, 2009, 03:13:15 PM
Quote from: orangeman on February 02, 2009, 03:08:47 PM
Scary enough but where does inflation come into this ?

We will be talking about deflation from now on.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on February 02, 2009, 04:54:26 PM
Wouldn't it be great to have a mortgage like this ???


No interest

Some borrowers will find they no longer have to pay any interest on their mortgages if the Bank Rate is cut to 1%.

The Cheltenham & Gloucester (C&G), one of the mortgage lending arms of Lloyds Banking Group, has 1,500 customers whose tracker deals are set at 1.01% below Bank Rate.

At first they will be charged at just 0.001%, to give the lender time to adjust its computer systems.

For someone with a £100,000 mortgage this would mean paying 8 pence a month in interest.

Then the customers will pay no interest at all, and will be repaid their small overpayment.

However, the C&G said it would not go as far as regularly repaying interest to these borrowers - a negative interest rate - as their deals have a "collar" that sets the minimum rate at 0%.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Declan on February 02, 2009, 06:38:21 PM
Now I see that Ernst & Young the auditors of Anglo are refusing to appear before the Public Accounts committee - These bastards have no shame and yet are part of the business classes that are currently lecturing us on the need to take pay cuts and cut public services >:( 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on February 02, 2009, 06:57:24 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 02, 2009, 03:13:15 PM
Quote from: orangeman on February 02, 2009, 03:08:47 PM
Scary enough but where does inflation come into this ?

We will be talking about deflation from now on.



How do you cure deflation ??? Or do you want to cure it ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on February 02, 2009, 07:09:35 PM
Quote from: orangeman on February 02, 2009, 06:57:24 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 02, 2009, 03:13:15 PM
Quote from: orangeman on February 02, 2009, 03:08:47 PM
Scary enough but where does inflation come into this ?

We will be talking about deflation from now on.



How do you cure deflation ??? Or do you want to cure it ?

Dunno, get people spending I suppose.

This is from Wiki so the usual grain of salt warnings apply:

Quotethere is a fall in how much the whole economy is willing to buy, and the going price for goods. Because the price of goods is falling, consumers have an incentive to delay purchases and consumption until prices fall further, which in turn reduces overall economic activity - contributing to the deflationary spiral
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on February 02, 2009, 07:35:26 PM
Quote from: orangeman on February 02, 2009, 06:57:24 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 02, 2009, 03:13:15 PM
Quote from: orangeman on February 02, 2009, 03:08:47 PM
Scary enough but where does inflation come into this ?

We will be talking about deflation from now on.



How do you cure deflation ??? Or do you want to cure it ?
we certainly don't want global deflation, but for ireland, a couple of years of it would maybe bring us back into sync with the rest of europe - although as someone else pointed out previously, there are problems for both individuals and govt in trying to repay debts previously incurred as their incomes are decreasing.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: kumquat on February 02, 2009, 08:18:20 PM
quick question lads. i know endowment policys are forecast to fall short of their expected yield, but will the credit crunch/recession increase this short fall?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on February 02, 2009, 08:25:24 PM
How many hoses were sold / bought as past 10 years leaving the own of same in negative equity and who would now be faced with a difficulty in paying the mortgage. The answer to this might give the govt some indication as to how big the problem is amongst the general public.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: thebigfella on February 02, 2009, 08:35:31 PM
Quote from: orangeman on February 02, 2009, 08:25:24 PM
How many hoses were sold / bought as past 10 years leaving the own of same in negative equity and who would now be faced with a difficulty in paying the mortgage. The answer to this might give the govt some indication as to how big the problem is amongst the general public.

I don't get that, if you could afford to pay the mortgage before the negative equity, why would that mean you can't meet your mortgage repayments? With interest rates falling are quiet a few people's mortgage repayments not less?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Declan on February 02, 2009, 08:42:42 PM
Quotei know endowment policys are forecast to fall short of their expected yield, but will the credit crunch/recession increase this short fall?

Yes I'd have thought
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on February 03, 2009, 09:26:34 AM
Kenny taking 10% cut in RTÉ salary
RTÉ's Pat Kenny has joined several other highly-paid broadcasters in agreeing to take a 10% cut in his salary.


In a statement, the broadcaster said: "I wish to confirm that my company has informed RTÉ of my willingness to accept a 10% cut in my salary for 2009.

"I do not normally comment on arrangements for my services to RTÉ. However, I feel it is appropriate to clarify my position at this time.


Advertisement"Everyone has a responsibility to accept the financial challenges facing the State and to examine the role that they can play in working to ensure that we pull through this economic crisis.


"I am pleased to play my part in this way.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: the Deel Rover on February 03, 2009, 09:50:20 AM
Quote from: orangeman on February 02, 2009, 04:54:26 PM
Wouldn't it be great to have a mortgage like this ???


No interest

Some borrowers will find they no longer have to pay any interest on their mortgages if the Bank Rate is cut to 1%.

The Cheltenham & Gloucester (C&G), one of the mortgage lending arms of Lloyds Banking Group, has 1,500 customers whose tracker deals are set at 1.01% below Bank Rate.

At first they will be charged at just 0.001%, to give the lender time to adjust its computer systems.

For someone with a £100,000 mortgage this would mean paying 8 pence a month in interest.

Then the customers will pay no interest at all, and will be repaid their small overpayment.

However, the C&G said it would not go as far as regularly repaying interest to these borrowers - a negative interest rate - as their deals have a "collar" that sets the minimum rate at 0%.



never heard of a tracker set at below a bank rate i have a tracker thats at .6% over the Ecb and i'm happy enough with that would rather if i had no mortgage though
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Rois on February 03, 2009, 11:11:55 AM
Quote from: Declan on February 02, 2009, 06:38:21 PM
Now I see that Ernst & Young the auditors of Anglo are refusing to appear before the Public Accounts committee

I take it you didn't read the articles surrounding this that said they would be happy to cooperate with the committee when other investigations on internal bank matters (those closest to the undisclosed loans) had been completed.  Laying your anger at the door of the external auditor is rather ill-informed.  I'd start with the lowest level of authority in the bank and work my way upwards in any investigation - there are a few layers to get through before the external auditors become involved. 

Quote from: Declan on February 02, 2009, 06:38:21 PM
These b**tards have no shame and yet are part of the business classes that are currently lecturing us on the need to take pay cuts and cut public services >:( 
I think your emotions are running away with you.  "Business classes"?  What does that mean?  How can Anglo's external auditors be blamed for government policies on trying to resolve the current situation?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on February 03, 2009, 12:46:08 PM
Quote from: Rois on February 03, 2009, 11:11:55 AM


Quote from: Declan on February 02, 2009, 06:38:21 PM
These b**tards have no shame and yet are part of the business classes that are currently lecturing us on the need to take pay cuts and cut public services >:( 
I think your emotions are running away with you.  "Business classes"?  What does that mean?  How can Anglo's external auditors be blamed for government policies on trying to resolve the current situation?

Maybe it's a little harsh to call poor E&Y those horrible names, but they have quite a bit of explaining to do as to why they didn't make shareholders aware of the chairman's loans.  The public perception (whether justified or not) is that all these guys such as the E&Y partners and Seanie are mates, play tennis and golf together, probably played a bit of rugger together at school too and that's why transparency is such a problem in the irish business community.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Smokin Joe on February 03, 2009, 01:13:20 PM
have any of the auditor bashers heard of "the expectation's gap"?

http://www.abrema.net/abrema/expect_gap_g.html
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Billys Boots on February 03, 2009, 01:34:35 PM
If auditors can't 'find' evidence (even when they're not looking for it) of mismanagement on the Anglo scale, then either: (a) Anglo were masters of deceit, or (b) they're not doing their job adequately.  If (a) is true, and the auditors can be codded, is there a point to the 'audit' at all?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: passedit on February 03, 2009, 01:39:39 PM
Quote from: Billys Boots on February 03, 2009, 01:34:35 PM
If auditors can't 'find' evidence (even when they're not looking for it) of mismanagement on the Anglo scale, then either: (a) Anglo were masters of deceit, or (b) they're not doing their job adequately.  If (a) is true, and the auditors can be codded, is there a point to the 'audit' at all?

Indeed Billy, i'd expect a layman never mind an experienced auditor to spot 82m dissappearing then reappearing annually. I'd be interested to see what the revenue commissioners eventually make of these loans.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on February 03, 2009, 01:40:29 PM
Quote from: Smokin Joe on February 03, 2009, 01:13:20 PM
have any of the auditor bashers heard of "the expectation's gap"?

http://www.abrema.net/abrema/expect_gap_g.html
yeah and the auditor is a watchdog, not a bloodhound etc etc etc - still loans of €127M out of a total loan book of 60Bn would be expected to be identified, especially when they're being moved in and out in the same fashion for 6/7 years in a row - what do they call that again - Window Dressing??
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on February 03, 2009, 01:45:16 PM
Quote from: Billys Boots on February 03, 2009, 01:34:35 PM
If auditors can't 'find' evidence (even when they're not looking for it) of mismanagement on the Anglo scale, then either: (a) Anglo were masters of deceit, or (b) they're not doing their job adequately.  If (a) is true, and the auditors can be codded, is there a point to the 'audit' at all?
to answer your last question, imo audits of companies of this size serve little or no purpose and certainly add very little in terms of value - the staff conducting the audits frequently don't understand exactly what they're supposed to be doing or the systems in place within the company they're auditing, how could they really be expected to?  They don't have the time to do the job that the public expect them to have done, internal auditors addmore value, but one has to be concerned as to their independence.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: passedit on February 03, 2009, 01:48:09 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on February 03, 2009, 01:40:29 PM
Quote from: Smokin Joe on February 03, 2009, 01:13:20 PM
have any of the auditor bashers heard of "the expectation's gap"?

http://www.abrema.net/abrema/expect_gap_g.html
yeah and the auditor is a watchdog, not a bloodhound etc etc etc - still loans of €127M out of a total loan book of 60Bn would be expected to be identified, especially when they're being moved in and out in the same fashion for 6/7 years in a row - what do they call that again - Window Dressing??

Some would call it fraud.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Hound on February 03, 2009, 01:48:27 PM
Quote from: passedit on February 03, 2009, 01:39:39 PM
Quote from: Billys Boots on February 03, 2009, 01:34:35 PM
If auditors can't 'find' evidence (even when they're not looking for it) of mismanagement on the Anglo scale, then either: (a) Anglo were masters of deceit, or (b) they're not doing their job adequately.  If (a) is true, and the auditors can be codded, is there a point to the 'audit' at all?

Indeed Billy, i'd expect a layman never mind an experienced auditor to spot 82m dissappearing then reappearing annually. I'd be interested to see what the revenue commissioners eventually make of these loans.
But did I not read that the only disclosure that had to go into the accounts was the balance at the end of the year - which was properly disclosed. So the letter of the law was not breached?

There is nothing wrong or illegal with a company (more especially a bank) granting loans to employees or directors. Of course if what I said in the 1st paragraph is correct, then the law is an ass by not insisting on the average balance for the year being disclosed rather than the closing balance.

Presuming Seanie was getting a preferential rate of interest, then that benefit would be subject to tax. I'd be surprised if he didn't disclose that to Revenue, but if he didn't I'm sure they'll go after him.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: passedit on February 03, 2009, 02:01:47 PM
Quote from: Hound on February 03, 2009, 01:48:27 PM
Quote from: passedit on February 03, 2009, 01:39:39 PM
Quote from: Billys Boots on February 03, 2009, 01:34:35 PM
If auditors can't 'find' evidence (even when they're not looking for it) of mismanagement on the Anglo scale, then either: (a) Anglo were masters of deceit, or (b) they're not doing their job adequately.  If (a) is true, and the auditors can be codded, is there a point to the 'audit' at all?

Indeed Billy, i'd expect a layman never mind an experienced auditor to spot 82m dissappearing then reappearing annually. I'd be interested to see what the revenue commissioners eventually make of these loans.
But did I not read that the only disclosure that had to go into the accounts was the balance at the end of the year - which was properly disclosed. So the letter of the law was not breached?

There is nothing wrong or illegal with a company (more especially a bank) granting loans to employees or directors. Of course if what I said in the 1st paragraph is correct, then the law is an ass by not insisting on the average balance for the year being disclosed rather than the closing balance.

Presuming Seanie was getting a preferential rate of interest, then that benefit would be subject to tax. I'd be surprised if he didn't disclose that to Revenue, but if he didn't I'm sure they'll go after him.

There is a strong arguement to be made that the balance remained outstanding at the year end as the transactions in and out were artificial, as their only purpose was to hide the loan, and should be disregarded.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: bingobus on February 03, 2009, 02:05:30 PM
Quote from: Hound on February 03, 2009, 01:48:27 PM
Quote from: passedit on February 03, 2009, 01:39:39 PM
Quote from: Billys Boots on February 03, 2009, 01:34:35 PM
If auditors can't 'find' evidence (even when they're not looking for it) of mismanagement on the Anglo scale, then either: (a) Anglo were masters of deceit, or (b) they're not doing their job adequately.  If (a) is true, and the auditors can be codded, is there a point to the 'audit' at all?

Indeed Billy, i'd expect a layman never mind an experienced auditor to spot 82m dissappearing then reappearing annually. I'd be interested to see what the revenue commissioners eventually make of these loans.
But did I not read that the only disclosure that had to go into the accounts was the balance at the end of the year - which was properly disclosed. So the letter of the law was not breached?

There is nothing wrong or illegal with a company (more especially a bank) granting loans to employees or directors. Of course if what I said in the 1st paragraph is correct, then the law is an ass by not insisting on the average balance for the year being disclosed rather than the closing balance.

Presuming Seanie was getting a preferential rate of interest, then that benefit would be subject to tax. I'd be surprised if he didn't disclose that to Revenue, but if he didn't I'm sure they'll go after him.

Regarding a Directors loan, the opening and closing  balance should be disclosed as well the maxiumun balance in the year. The accumulative Directors loan should also be stated as a % of Net Assets, as a Directors loan greater than 10% of Net Assets is a breach of Company law and is a reportable offence ( to ODCE )
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Hardy on February 03, 2009, 02:09:34 PM
A more pertinent question might be why the behaviour of a bank chairman, no less, that single-handedly stands to cost the taxpayer hundreds of millions in additional interest payments because of the damaged reputation of our system is technically not even illegal.

That auditors' charter is bordering on funny, if predictable. In common with all conspiracies against the people perpetrated by the professions, effectively it says "we're very happy to charge huge fees for checking out the accounts of registered companies on behalf of the shareholders and public, but of course we're not taking any of the responsibility that might reasonably be expected to accompany such generous fees. Are you mad, old chap?".

Terms and conditions apply.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: bcarrier on February 03, 2009, 02:32:55 PM
Ill be shocked if E&Y dont have a letter of rep from Fitzpatrick that corresponds with the note in the accounts. The whole window dressing transaction was intended to deceive and info has probably been withheld from E&Y. Time will tell.

There seems to have been a private company culture at anglo ....the placing of Quinns shares/CFDs  looks most unusual and is possibly an illegal share support scheme.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Rois on February 03, 2009, 03:15:19 PM
Quote from: Hardy on February 03, 2009, 02:09:34 PM
That auditors' charter is bordering on funny, if predictable. In common with all conspiracies against the people perpetrated by the professions, effectively it says "we're very happy to charge huge fees for checking out the accounts of registered companies on behalf of the shareholders and public, but of course we're not taking any of the responsibility that might reasonably be expected to accompany such generous fees. Are you mad, old chap?".

Terms and conditions apply.

Auditors can only check the information that is made available.  If, through their investigations, they identify anomalies between the information provided to support the accounts and the accounts themselves, great.  If they have been negligent and not identified anomalies that could be picked up by another firm carrying out the same work, by all means call them to account.  Of course they can be made to assume liability for such mistakes, proportionate to the loss incurred.

But they do not prepare the accounts or prepare the supporting information.  They verify.  Check.  Audit, if you will.  While third party evidence is generally the most reliable, this is a case of internal UNDISCLOSED loans. 

Should internal systems be in place to detect these - certainly.

Are these controls the responsibility of the external auditor - no.

I would love to know how much you think these huge fees are in the grand scale of the bank's assets and liabilities. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Declan on February 03, 2009, 03:54:44 PM
Rois maybe I am letting my emotions get the better of me but my reference to the business classes is related to the constant message from people involved in the Financial Services industry telling us of the need for cutbacks etc when they are the very people who caused the situation in the first place. I bow to your superior professional knowledge and know that the external auditors can only verify what is put in front of them but if a loan is on the books at one stage of the year and then not in the end of year balance sheet I'd have thought it may raise some questions in their minds - but that's a simple layman's view of the world. My respect for that profession took a huge hit with the Enron etc scandals and the percption amongst the chattering classes is certainly that they are all part of the golden circle
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: passedit on February 03, 2009, 04:10:53 PM
Quote from: Declan on February 03, 2009, 03:54:44 PM
Rois maybe I am letting my emotions get the better of me but my reference to the business classes is related to the constant message from people involved in the Financial Services industry telling us of the need for cutbacks etc when they are the very people who caused the situation in the first place. I bow to your superior professional knowledge and know that the external auditors can only verify what is put in front of them but if a loan is on the books at one stage of the year and then not in the end of year balance sheet I'd have thought it may raise some questions in their minds - but that's a simple layman's view of the world. My respect for that profession took a huge hit with the Enron etc scandals and the percption amongst the chattering classes is certainly that they are all part of the golden circle

As a former Big 5 employee myself Declan (albeit in tax rather than auditing) I saw more than enough to concur with your opinion. Audits, while lucrative are merely a means of keeping a foot in the door so that the real money can be made with consultancies (tax evasion avoidance, financial planning etc). human nature being what it is, the hand that feeds is seldom bitten.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Hound on February 03, 2009, 04:20:47 PM
Quote from: passedit on February 03, 2009, 04:10:53 PM
Quote from: Declan on February 03, 2009, 03:54:44 PM
Rois maybe I am letting my emotions get the better of me but my reference to the business classes is related to the constant message from people involved in the Financial Services industry telling us of the need for cutbacks etc when they are the very people who caused the situation in the first place. I bow to your superior professional knowledge and know that the external auditors can only verify what is put in front of them but if a loan is on the books at one stage of the year and then not in the end of year balance sheet I'd have thought it may raise some questions in their minds - but that's a simple layman's view of the world. My respect for that profession took a huge hit with the Enron etc scandals and the percption amongst the chattering classes is certainly that they are all part of the golden circle

As a former Big 5 employee myself Declan (albeit in tax rather than auditing) I saw more than enough to concur with your opinion. Audits, while lucrative are merely a means of keeping a foot in the door so that the real money can be made with consultancies (tax evasion avoidance, financial planning etc). human nature being what it is, the hand that feeds is seldom bitten.
There's a huge difference between evasion and avoidance, despite what some in the media might say. Very surprised that someone who worked in tax in the Big 4 would put the two together like that. In Dublin anyway, nobody in the Big 4 will countenance any client who wants to evade tax.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: passedit on February 03, 2009, 04:24:26 PM
Now hound, I'm well aware of the difference in law (if not in morality) and that was just my wee dig.

Btw me using the term big 5 shows how long ago it was.  :-\
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: bingobus on February 03, 2009, 04:25:08 PM
Quote from: passedit on February 03, 2009, 04:10:53 PM
Quote from: Declan on February 03, 2009, 03:54:44 PM
Rois maybe I am letting my emotions get the better of me but my reference to the business classes is related to the constant message from people involved in the Financial Services industry telling us of the need for cutbacks etc when they are the very people who caused the situation in the first place. I bow to your superior professional knowledge and know that the external auditors can only verify what is put in front of them but if a loan is on the books at one stage of the year and then not in the end of year balance sheet I'd have thought it may raise some questions in their minds - but that's a simple layman's view of the world. My respect for that profession took a huge hit with the Enron etc scandals and the percption amongst the chattering classes is certainly that they are all part of the golden circle

As a former Big 5 employee myself Declan (albeit in tax rather than auditing) I saw more than enough to concur with your opinion. Audits, while lucrative are merely a means of keeping a foot in the door so that the real money can be made with consultancies (tax evasion avoidance, financial planning etc). human nature being what it is, the hand that feeds is seldom bitten.

Same background, Big 5 but in Auditing. The Audit was always considered the Bread and butter with all the other area's considered the money earners. Would be surprised if the Audit team hadn't picked up in it but you'd have to question the directors motives and lenghts they went to hide it. Was it even in his name or a holding company name? If so, it could easily slipped the net. Alot of the audit work at that size of a company would be testing of controls etc and the actual detailed testing would be samples but on a small scale in thousands & thousands of transactions. Computer aided sampling may have used to identify material transactions but if he kept the transactions at certain levels, they could easily have slipped the net.

If they where in his name though, their is no excuse for missing them, other than a blind eye been turned.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Declan on February 03, 2009, 04:42:11 PM
Here's how were going to get out of it all according to our great leader

http://www.ireland.com/home/Full_text_Taoiseachs_statement_to_Dil/maxiview.ie?mx_fast_NEWS_irishtimes.com_uuid=223463_irnewsirishtimes (http://www.ireland.com/home/Full_text_Taoiseachs_statement_to_Dil/maxiview.ie?mx_fast_NEWS_irishtimes.com_uuid=223463_irnewsirishtimes)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: bingobus on February 03, 2009, 05:07:31 PM
Quote from: Declan on February 03, 2009, 04:42:11 PM
Here's how were going to get out of it all according to our great leader

http://www.ireland.com/home/Full_text_Taoiseachs_statement_to_Dil/maxiview.ie?mx_fast_NEWS_irishtimes.com_uuid=223463_irnewsirishtimes (http://www.ireland.com/home/Full_text_Taoiseachs_statement_to_Dil/maxiview.ie?mx_fast_NEWS_irishtimes.com_uuid=223463_irnewsirishtimes)

Absolute cop out, cost cutting in vague areas won't satisfy anyone that Ireland is addressing its economy. Our credit rating will drop after this.
We'd get more leadership from Pat Kenny.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on February 03, 2009, 05:18:08 PM
QuoteIn the context of the discussions, the Government tabled proposals to achieve a full-year saving of €1.4billion through the introduction of a public service pension levy. The unions decided that they were not in a position to agree to that proposal.

I would be interested to know if a public service pension levy was a levy payable by the public service only or was it a levy for all workers payable to the public service as a pension. Given the unions response I'd suggest it was the former.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on February 03, 2009, 05:22:36 PM
Sorry the above question was answered here:

Quote€1.4 billion on the public service pay bill, the great bulk of which will be achieved through a new pension-related payment to be made by all public servants (including employees of local authorities), with a small element of the total to be secured through reductions in travelling and subsistence rates and other savings. In addition, the increases provided for under the Review and Transitional Agreement with effect from 1st September 2009 and 1st June 2010 will not now be paid on those dates; this will deliver savings of €1 billion in 2010
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Rois on February 03, 2009, 05:23:38 PM
Quote from: Declan on February 03, 2009, 03:54:44 PM
I bow to your superior professional knowledge and know that the external auditors can only verify what is put in front of them but if a loan is on the books at one stage of the year and then not in the end of year balance sheet I'd have thought it may raise some questions in their minds - but that's a simple layman's view of the world.

A balance sheet is audited at a particular point in time, ie year end, the external auditors don't track what comes on and off at particular points during the year.  If you're going to question the performance of the external auditors in carrying out their duties, I think I should defend them.

Maybe the laymen should educate themselves before using obscenities to denigrate an entire profession.  Also, auditors and accountants are not part of the financial services industry, they're in professional services.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Declan on February 03, 2009, 05:35:09 PM
QuoteIf you're going to question the performance of the external auditors in carrying out their duties, I think I should defend them.

No problem with that. As I said I would bow to your professional knowledge of their day to day activities.

QuoteMaybe the laymen should educate themselves before using obscenities to denigrate an entire profession

Didn't denigrate the whole profession only Ernst & Young but if they are representative of the whole profession then my initial opinion remains that the profession itself needs to take a long hard look at itself. I think it's fair to say that in the leading financial scandals of our recent past the accounting/auditing profession have been integral to their operation.

QuoteAlso, auditors and accountants are not part of the financial services industry, they're in professional services.

Disagree - They are the Professional Services department of a Financial Services company

It's nothing personal Rois. My own sister is an accountant and my anger is directed at the top tier of these companies that set the tone and agenda for the rest of the staff
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Rois on February 03, 2009, 06:02:28 PM
Quote from: Declan on February 03, 2009, 05:35:09 PM
Didn't denigrate the whole profession only Ernst & Young but if they are representative of the whole profession then my initial opinion remains that the profession itself needs to take a long hard look at itself. I think it's fair to say that in the leading financial scandals of our recent past the accounting/auditing profession have been integral to their operation.


Wow, revelation, a financial scandal has an accountant/auditor involved.  Seriously, if they are a trading company, chances are an accountant or auditor will be required in some capacity.  Not exactly rocket science. 

Quote from: Declan on February 03, 2009, 05:35:09 PM
QuoteAlso, auditors and accountants are not part of the financial services industry, they're in professional services.

Disagree - They are the Professional Services department of a Financial Services company


Disagree - accountants and auditors are not financial services providers in the sense that they are not answerable to the financial services ombudsman.  As conclusive evidence as should be required to define a financial services provider.  Check up the website to show which types of companies are defined as financial service providers. 

If you should direct your anger anywhere, perhaps it should be to the legislation makers who have come up with the various Companies Acts and set down the rules by which auditors and accountants are governed.  Also refer to case law, where many judgements have been recorded that define how responsible auditors are for the actions of the various officers of the companies.

Look I know it isn't personal, and it seems I'm picking on everything you say, but it maddens me when people who are not aware of the scope of work or of any negligence that has or hasn't been found in the auditors' work so vociferously pick on the profession.   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Declan on February 03, 2009, 06:16:39 PM
QuoteWow, revelation, a financial scandal has an accountant/auditor involved.  Seriously, if they are a trading company, chances are an accountant or auditor will be required in some capacity.  Not exactly rocket science.

It's not rocket science of course but still doesn't take away from the fact that these companies were an integral part of these scandals.

Quoteaccountants and auditors are not financial services providers in the sense that they are not answerable to the financial services ombudsman.  As conclusive evidence as should be required to define a financial services provider.  Check up the website to show which types of companies are defined as financial service providers.

OK so according to that interpretation they are not financial services providers because they are not answerable to the financial services ombudsman - in what jurisdiction? Are they not answerable to the financial regulator here in the Republic? Or if not who is the regulatory body?

QuoteIf you should direct your anger anywhere, perhaps it should be to the legislation makers who have come up with the various Companies Acts and set down the rules by which auditors and accountants are governed

Don't worry I am just as angry with the legislators but are you seriously trying to suggest that these companies have no input via their various lobby groups to the legislation on the books and that ultimately it's down to the legislature - Wonder how many accountants are in the Dail ?

Quotebut it maddens me when people who are not aware of the scope of work or of any negligence that has or hasn't been found in the auditors' work so vociferously pick on the profession.

Just as it maddens me when people in that profession abdicate any responsibility towards the mess we find ourselves in.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Rois on February 03, 2009, 06:42:50 PM
I can't be bothered inserting all those quotes again.  

I was referring to the republic regarding the financial services ombudsman (in the UK I think it's the financial services authority).  We do not handle people's/companies' cash or financial products, which to me is what defines a financial service company.   We service many companies in the financial services industry by providing professional services.  

The mess we are in, in my mind, is due largely to credit provision.  Accounting firms do not have access to credit, so cannot provide it.  There may certainly be qualified accountants in the banks, or in the Dail, but your anger is vented towards those at the head of the Big 4 firms (none of whom are in the Dail, or in the banks) and therefore in my opinion misdirected if it is EY, KPMG, PwC and Deloitte or any other small accounting firm or sole trader you are implicating in the current crisis.

As for the accounting firms being found guilty of some sort of misconduct in recent financial scandals (though please don't quote Enron as I got enough of that during my student days), I'll bow to your superior knowledge this time and ask you to quote them so I can have a read.  I'm not trying to be smart, I'm genuinely interested.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: passedit on February 03, 2009, 07:41:00 PM
Quote from: Rois on February 03, 2009, 06:42:50 PM
I can't be bothered inserting all those quotes again.  

I was referring to the republic regarding the financial services ombudsman (in the UK I think it's the financial services authority).  We do not handle people's/companies' cash or financial products, which to me is what defines a financial service company.   We service many companies in the financial services industry by providing professional services.  


Rois the firm I worked for had a financial services arm regulated by the FSA. By necessity (regulatory purposes) it was a separate company but was controlled and heavily promoted by the firm. I believe this to be similar to the other members of the big 4 (or 5 as was). the term Chinese walls was often used (usually followed by a hollow laugh.

Also, I could take a wild guess at who prepared yer man's tax returns and how much HE paid for the privilege.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on February 03, 2009, 09:17:24 PM
Quote from: Rois on February 03, 2009, 05:23:38 PM
Quote from: Declan on February 03, 2009, 03:54:44 PM
I bow to your superior professional knowledge and know that the external auditors can only verify what is put in front of them but if a loan is on the books at one stage of the year and then not in the end of year balance sheet I'd have thought it may raise some questions in their minds - but that's a simple layman's view of the world.

A balance sheet is audited at a particular point in time, ie year end, the external auditors don't track what comes on and off at particular points during the year.  If you're going to question the performance of the external auditors in carrying out their duties, I think I should defend them.
I don't see why you're defending them rois, and whilst a balance sheet audit is an audit at a point in time, one has to be aware of the possibility of transactions in and around year end being possibly of more materiality than those taking place at other times.  In addition, these loans were apparently notified to the financial regulator on a quarterly basis throughout the year, an audit of this size would take place on an quarterly basis anyway?  Also, would part of the audit not involve an analysis of returns to the regulator, just to ensure that the company was in compliance with regulatory standards?
Put it this way, if you had been carrying out this audit would you be disappointed with yourself if this had slipped through the net?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Declan on February 03, 2009, 10:24:25 PM
We'll not agree on what constitutes a financial services company Rois. I agree re the mess and the provision of easy credit which to my mind was encouraged and fed by both the government and the "financial" industry, if I can use that term, and of which to my mind the large accounting firms are an integral part.

Won't quote Enron but what about WorldCom, and other scandals  like Duke Energy, Homestore. com, and Peregrine Systems. I got the attached quote from an American Analyst's paper in 2006 Many ended with the indictment of top executives and million or billion dollar settlements or fines. In addition, most of the large public accounting firms, including Arthur Andersen, Deloitte & Touche, Ernst & Young, KPMG, and PricewaterhouseCoopers, either admitted to or faced charges of negligence in the execution of their duty as auditors for failing to identify and prevent the publication of falsified financial reports by their corporate clients.  
I think PWC are the auditors in the recent Satyam case in India. Here's a discussion paper I found which might be of interest as well http://www.armsdeal-vpo.co.za/special_items/reading/mitchell.pdf (http://www.armsdeal-vpo.co.za/special_items/reading/mitchell.pdf)  
Also got this gem from America in Oct 2005
A required report by the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board, released last week, uncovered flaws in 18 audits performed by KPMG LLP for publicly held companies.
the PCAOB reviewed just 76 of KPMG's 1,900 publicly traded clients between June and October 2004. Some of the failures by KMPG, according to the PCAOB, include not thoroughly evaluating some known or likely errors, not keeping crucial documentation, and not backing up its opinion with "sufficient competent evidential matter." In a prepared statement, KPMG Chairman Timothy Flynn said, "KPMG is committed to the goal of continuous improvement in audit quality. We appreciate the constructive dialogue and consider it an important element in the process of improving our system of quality controls."


What I'm failing to see here is what actual protection an external auditor provides to the shareholders of a company. If basically they can only sign off on what is provided by the client without digging a bit deeper whats the point in them? That's not meant to be a smart arse comment it's a genuine question if they are that hamstrung by regulation etc is it just a rubber stamp?

By the way on the 9 o'clock news tonight the internal auditor said to the Dail committee only Fitzpatrick and one other executive were privy to the loans!!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on February 05, 2009, 11:48:56 AM
Further cut in UK rates expected 

The Bank's latest rates decision is due at midday
The Bank of England is widely expected to reduce UK interest rates to 1% from the current 1.5% when it makes its latest monthly decision later.

With the recession showing no signs of easing, most analysts agree the Bank will cut rates further as it aims to help stimulate the economy.

However, some business groups do not want a further cut, as they say recent reductions have failed to help.

Instead they want the Bank to do more to help restore lending levels.
UK interest rates have so far been reduced four times from October's 5% to January's 1.5%, the lowest rate in the Bank's 315-year history.

'Struggling for finance'

The Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) is one of the business groups saying it would prefer rates to stay on hold for February.


  The recent interest rate cuts are not having the desired effect and other means of economic stimulus are required

FSB national chairman John Wright
It said that a survey of its members found that 63% wanted rates to remain at their current level, compared with only 24% who wanted a further cut.

In December, 58% of its members had called for a reduction.

"These figures suggest that the recent interest rate cuts are not having the desired effect and other means of economic stimulus are required," said FSB national chairman John Wright.

"Small businesses are clearly worried that this monetary policy has been used extensively over the last few months yet they are still struggling to access cheaper finance."

Mr Wright said the onus now should be on getting the commercial banks to start lending at the already low rate of interest "to fire up the economy".

Stephen Alambritis, of the FSB, told to BBC: "We believe that if there was a further cut there would be no impact".

"The wise move would be for the Bank of England to say 'hold your horses, that's it, it's 1.5%, go and borrow wisely, go and spend wisely, don't sit back and think money is going to get any cheaper'".

Bank lending

The FSB's position is shared by influential think tank National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), which said there was "not very much point" to January's rate cut.

However, the Bank has been doing more than just cutting interest rates.

It revealed earlier this week that it had lent £185bn to financial institutions since April last year, in an attempt to help improve their liquidity.

The Bank said that 32 banks and building societies had taken part in the scheme.

Worsening recession?

Official figures showed in January that the UK is now in recession, following two consecutive quarters of falling economic output in the second half of 2008.

The economy contracted by 0.6% between July and September, and by 1.5% from October to November, Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures showed.

The ONS also said UK unemployment had risen to 1.92 million in the last quarter of 2008 - the highest level since 1997.

NIESR predicts that the economy will now shrink by 2.7% in 2009, its worst performance for 60 years.

Figures from the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) released earlier this week showed manufacturing remained weak last month, despite a slight improvement on December

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: naka on February 05, 2009, 12:43:09 PM
Quote from: orangeman on February 05, 2009, 11:48:56 AM
Further cut in UK rates expected 

The Bank's latest rates decision is due at midday
The Bank of England is widely expected to reduce UK interest rates to 1% from the current 1.5% when it makes its latest monthly decision later.

With the recession showing no signs of easing, most analysts agree the Bank will cut rates further as it aims to help stimulate the economy.

However, some business groups do not want a further cut, as they say recent reductions have failed to help.

Instead they want the Bank to do more to help restore lending levels.
UK interest rates have so far been reduced four times from October's 5% to January's 1.5%, the lowest rate in the Bank's 315-year history.

'Struggling for finance'

The Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) is one of the business groups saying it would prefer rates to stay on hold for February.


  The recent interest rate cuts are not having the desired effect and other means of economic stimulus are required

FSB national chairman John Wright
It said that a survey of its members found that 63% wanted rates to remain at their current level, compared with only 24% who wanted a further cut.

In December, 58% of its members had called for a reduction.

"These figures suggest that the recent interest rate cuts are not having the desired effect and other means of economic stimulus are required," said FSB national chairman John Wright.

"Small businesses are clearly worried that this monetary policy has been used extensively over the last few months yet they are still struggling to access cheaper finance."

Mr Wright said the onus now should be on getting the commercial banks to start lending at the already low rate of interest "to fire up the economy".

Stephen Alambritis, of the FSB, told to BBC: "We believe that if there was a further cut there would be no impact".

"The wise move would be for the Bank of England to say 'hold your horses, that's it, it's 1.5%, go and borrow wisely, go and spend wisely, don't sit back and think money is going to get any cheaper'".

Bank lending

The FSB's position is shared by influential think tank National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), which said there was "not very much point" to January's rate cut.

However, the Bank has been doing more than just cutting interest rates.

It revealed earlier this week that it had lent £185bn to financial institutions since April last year, in an attempt to help improve their liquidity.

The Bank said that 32 banks and building societies had taken part in the scheme.

Worsening recession?

Official figures showed in January that the UK is now in recession, following two consecutive quarters of falling economic output in the second half of 2008.

The economy contracted by 0.6% between July and September, and by 1.5% from October to November, Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures showed.

The ONS also said UK unemployment had risen to 1.92 million in the last quarter of 2008 - the highest level since 1997.

NIESR predicts that the economy will now shrink by 2.7% in 2009, its worst performance for 60 years.

Figures from the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) released earlier this week showed manufacturing remained weak last month, despite a slight improvement on December


would agree with this, interest rates are no longer helping, the fact is the banks are not lending to anyone, we are bailing the feckers out and all they are doing is shoring up their balance sheet
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on February 05, 2009, 12:43:46 PM
UK reduces interest rates to 1% 


The Bank of England has reduced interest rates to a record low of 1% from 1.5% in an attempt to boost the shrinking economy.

This marks the fifth interest rate cut since October, as the Bank seeks to encourage more lending.

The decision comes after official data showed the UK had entered a recession in December, after two successive quarters of economic contraction.

But some business groups argue rate cuts will not ease the economic crisis.
Following the rate cute Paul Broadhead of the Building Societies Association (BSA) told the BBC that savers were being "punished", arguing that the move could hinder the funds available to societies to lend as mortgages.




The interest rate transmission mechanism is clearly impaired but it is not yet kaput



Graeme Leach, Institute of Directors chief economist


The Bank Rate has now been reduced from 5% in October last year.

The Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) was one of the business groups that had favoured keeping rates on hold, arguing that what was needed was improved access to capital.

It said that a survey of its members found that 63% wanted rates to remain at their current level, compared with only 24% who wanted a further cut.

"These figures suggest that the recent interest rate cuts are not having the desired effect and other means of economic stimulus are required," said FSB national chairman John Wright.

Among the mortgage lenders, Halifax said it would pass on the rate cut to customers with standard variable rate mortgages.

Balancing act

Others business groups welcomed the cut. The Institute of Director's chief economist Graeme Leach said: "The interest rate transmission mechanism is clearly impaired but it is not yet kaput".

The Ernst & Young Item Club had also favoured a cut of half a percentage point, but added that the economy was in "deep recession" and believed that interest rates should drop further - "possibly to zero".

Hetal Mehta, senior economic adviser to the Ernst & Young Item Club highlighted the "difficult task" the Bank faced.

"Six months ago the Bank was balancing slowing economic growth with accelerating inflation.

"However the Bank now has to act to avoid deflation without fear of a further weakening of sterling; a weaker currency should serve to add to the competitiveness of exports."

Economic data

The rate cut comes against a backdrop of gloomy economic data.

The economy contracted by 0.6% between July and September, and by 1.5% from October to December, Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures showed.

And the ONS also said UK unemployment had risen to 1.92 million in the last quarter of 2008 - the highest level since 1997.

Figures from the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) released earlier this week showed manufacturing remained weak last month, despite a slight improvement on December

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bensars on February 05, 2009, 01:13:32 PM
I for one will welcome the additional cut.

Heard on the radio this morning that there is a row brewing, with RBS about to award bonus payments to top executives. The figure mentioned was £100 Million +. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on February 05, 2009, 01:37:35 PM
Quote from: Bensars on February 05, 2009, 01:13:32 PM
I for one will welcome the additional cut.

Heard on the radio this morning that there is a row brewing, with RBS about to award bonus payments to top executives. The figure mentioned was £100 Million +. 

Mandelson warns RBS on high pay 

Lord Mandelson urged the bank to be mindful
Lord Mandelson has told the Royal Bank of Scotland that it risks alienating ordinary people if it gave its traders and bosses "exorbitant" bonuses.

The business secretary's comments came after a report in The Times said the firm is to award large bonuses, despite expectations of huge annual losses.

"Please be mindful about how this looks and what public opinion will be," said Mr Mandelson.

The recently bailed-out bank said its pay policy had yet to be decided.
The bank told the BBC: "The board has yet to decide on remuneration policy for the year."

"We have previously announced that the Board will receive no bonuses in 2008 and if there are any bonuses for 2009 they will be paid in shares."

Record loss expected

RBS, which is set to be 70% owned by the government, is due to release its annual earnings results on 26 February.

It has already said that it expects to report write-downs of between £7bn and £8bn in 2008. The forecast caused shares in the bank to plunge 67%.


  The banks have got to be sensitive to public opinion and I think they need to think about what is the best way forward

Business Secretary Lord Mandelson


See RBS share price
Obama unveils executive pay cap
Analysts predict it will report a record annual loss for 2008, beating the £15bn loss posted by Vodafone in 2006.

According to The Times newspaper, RBS paid out £1.83bn in remuneration in 2007, most of which is thought to have been in bonuses.

Speaking at the launch of a £3bn cash injection to boost lending to small businesses, Lord Mandelson said: "Of course you have got to do all you can to recruit the best people and keep the best people in place - there is a huge job on our plates.

"On the other hand the banks have got to be sensitive to public opinion and I think they need to think about what is the best way forward."

US cap

Lord Mandelson's comments come one day after US President Barack Obama announced a $500,000 (£355,000) limit on executive pay at US firms that need fresh government aid.

Wall Street paid $18.4bn (£12.7bn) in bonuses in 2008 and $32.9bn (£22.7bn) in 2007.

BBC business editor Robert Peston said the move in the US will inevitably put pressure on the UK government to introduce a similar cap on British banks that have received state support.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: pintsofguinness on February 05, 2009, 08:08:40 PM
I'm sick of the Bank of England cutting rates, I dont understand how it's helping.  The banks arent passing on the whole rate cut so aren't they making more and more money out of it? It's f**king the pound, isn't it? People with savings or trying to save are suffering while the greedy and stupid taking out mortgages they couldnt afford or being bailed out, with the banks.  I am sick to the teeth of the very people who caused this mess getting bailed out while those who were sensible and responsible are being screwed. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on February 05, 2009, 11:37:59 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on February 05, 2009, 08:08:40 PM
I'm sick of the Bank of England cutting rates, I dont understand how it's helping.  The banks arent passing on the whole rate cut so aren't they making more and more money out of it? It's f**king the pound, isn't it? People with savings or trying to save are suffering while the greedy and stupid taking out mortgages they couldnt afford or being bailed out, with the banks.  I am sick to the teeth of the very people who caused this mess getting bailed out while those who were sensible and responsible are being screwed. 


If Iceland's interest rate is 17%, then their savings rate must be good as well ???
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Puckoon on February 05, 2009, 11:41:49 PM
Quote from: orangeman on February 05, 2009, 01:37:35 PM


US cap

Lord Mandelson's comments come one day after US President Barack Obama announced a $500,000 (£355,000) limit on executive pay at US firms that need fresh government aid.

Wall Street paid $18.4bn (£12.7bn) in bonuses in 2008 and $32.9bn (£22.7bn) in 2007.

BBC business editor Robert Peston said the move in the US will inevitably put pressure on the UK government to introduce a similar cap on British banks that have received state support.



This limit was voted on on CNN last night as I was making the spuds. In 15 minutes the polls were open the American public voted yes for this exectutive pay cap 99.3% against 0.7%.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Donagh on February 05, 2009, 11:45:30 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on February 05, 2009, 08:08:40 PM
I'm sick of the Bank of England cutting rates, I dont understand how it's helping.  The banks arent passing on the whole rate cut so aren't they making more and more money out of it? It's f**king the pound, isn't it? People with savings or trying to save are suffering while the greedy and stupid taking out mortgages they couldnt afford or being bailed out, with the banks.  I am sick to the teeth of the very people who caused this mess getting bailed out while those who were sensible and responsible are being screwed. 

Tell me about it  >:(
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on February 06, 2009, 12:09:00 PM
This article was written by Clarkson in April 2006 before the 1st signs of the subprime mortgage crisis/credit crunch.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/jeremy_clarkson/article708187.ece (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/jeremy_clarkson/article708187.ece)

I have no idea what a hedge fund is, but after a day trip to Mustique last week I think I need to plant one.

At first I couldn't quite work out whether this privately owned island in the Caribbean is heaven on earth or a small piece of hell. Certainly it's the first country I've ever been to which is completed mowed, from end to end, in nice neat strips. Honestly, I've been to dirtier, messier nuclear laboratories.

It seems sanitised somehow, but then I thought, what's wrong with that? A lot of very rich people have come here and built a world where there is no crime, no disease and no unpleasant working-class people on the beaches. Not unless they're in an apron and they're toiling over a barbecue, roasting yams.

After a day drinking wine, and swimming in the preposterously turquoise sea, going back to Barbados felt like going back to Birmingham. As our little plane took off from the freshly mowed airfield, I looked back and thought: "No. Mustique is more than all right. It's living, breathing proof that the resurrection's a load of nonsense."

Because if Jesus really had come back from the dead, he'd still be alive today. And if he were still alive, it's sensible to assume he'd be living in the best place on earth. So he'd be in Mustique. And he wasn't.

Of course, some of the 90 or so houses that sit like big wedding cakes on the newly mown hillsides belong to high-profile stars such as Mick Jagger, Tommy Hilfiger and Stewart Copeland — the second of only two policemen on the island. But the vast majority belong, it seems, to hedge fund managers.

Now I can describe these people to you very easily. They are all quite young, and they all appear to be super-fit. None smokes. Few drink. All have swept-back hair and dazzling teeth, and all, you imagine, would quite like to murder someone, to see what it's like. You're thinking Bret Easton Ellis. So am I.

They are also lip-slobberingly rich. There are estimated to be 9,000 funds worldwide which, between them, have assets of $1,500 billion. So they're not really hedges at all. They're bloody great leylandii.

What's more, a whopping 78% of all the hedges in Europe are grown and nurtured in London. That's $255 billion. And that's great, but before we get too excited, we must first of all try to work out what a hedge fund is.

According to a friend in the City, they're brilliant because whether the stock market goes up or down, you still make pots of money. Great. Sounds like my kind of gambling. But what are they exactly?

"Ah well," she said. "You rent shares from someone who has a lot of them and then you sell what you've rented." Now this, so far as I can tell, is actually called "theft". Small wonder they've all got houses on Mustique. They're all burglars.

"No," said my friend, "because you always pay back the person you've rented them from, plus interest." I see, so you rent some shares, sell them, and then give the profit (if you've made any) to the person from whom you did the renting. That seems like a lot of effort and risk for no gain at all.

My friend became exasperated and told me to stop thinking so literally because the money never actually exists. "It's like a house of straw then?" I asked. "No," she tutted. "It's like a house of straw that's a hologram. It isn't there."

On the world wide internet, a hedge fund is described thus: "A fund, usually used by wealthy individuals and institutions, which is allowed to use aggressive strategies that are unavailable to mutual funds, including selling short, leverage, programme trading, swaps, arbitrage, and derivatives."

Gibberish. And galling, too, because I'm not a stupid man. I'm able to grasp the most complicated concepts, especially if it means I can walk away from the table six years later with £100 billion in my back pocket, a Gulfstream V and a house on Mustique. But this hedge fund business was eluding me.

One thing I did note was that hedge funds are not regulated like normal share dealings. I'm not surprised. How could a flat-footed policeman possibly be expected to investigate a house of straw that doesn't exist? And there's something else. While hedge funds operate outside the law, don't exist, and always make money whether the market rises or falls, 85% fail. How's that possible? That would be like losing money at the races whether your horse came in first, third, or in a big tube of Evo-Stik.

To find out, I turned to a publication called Money Week which, in a lengthy and indescribably boring article, explained why hedges are starting to crumble. There are many reasons, apparently, none of which I could understand. But all of which are wrong.

I've given it a moment's thought and I know exactly why the business is in trouble. It's obvious. In order to function, hedge funds need wealthy investors. But as my recent trip to Mustique demonstrated, all the world's richest people these days are hedge fund managers. This, then, has become a business that can only invest in itself.

Soon these guys are going to have to forget about the super-rich and chase down those who are simply well off. That'd be me, and that's great. Lend me your house on Mustique for two weeks next Easter, and we'll talk
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: bingobus on February 06, 2009, 12:26:17 PM
Quote from: Donagh on February 05, 2009, 11:45:30 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on February 05, 2009, 08:08:40 PM
I'm sick of the Bank of England cutting rates, I dont understand how it's helping.  The banks arent passing on the whole rate cut so aren't they making more and more money out of it? It's f**king the pound, isn't it? People with savings or trying to save are suffering while the greedy and stupid taking out mortgages they couldnt afford or being bailed out, with the banks.  I am sick to the teeth of the very people who caused this mess getting bailed out while those who were sensible and responsible are being screwed. 

Tell me about it  >:(

Isn't part of th idea to make people spend and stimulate rather than save and keep money out of circulation. Also, as inflation is so low and possibly heading to deflation, isn't your money appreciating in value as in real terms you can buy more with it regardless of the interest it earned. Still, its always nice to see interest been earned but shop around and there is good enough rates to be had.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: passedit on February 06, 2009, 12:33:17 PM
Quote from: bingobus on February 06, 2009, 12:26:17 PM
Quote from: Donagh on February 05, 2009, 11:45:30 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on February 05, 2009, 08:08:40 PM
I'm sick of the Bank of England cutting rates, I dont understand how it's helping.  The banks arent passing on the whole rate cut so aren't they making more and more money out of it? It's f**king the pound, isn't it? People with savings or trying to save are suffering while the greedy and stupid taking out mortgages they couldnt afford or being bailed out, with the banks.  I am sick to the teeth of the very people who caused this mess getting bailed out while those who were sensible and responsible are being screwed. 

Tell me about it  >:(

Isn't part of th idea to make people spend and stimulate rather than save and keep money out of circulation. Also, as inflation is so low and possibly heading to deflation, isn't your money appreciating in value as in real terms you can buy more with it regardless of the interest it earned. Still, its always nice to see interest been earned but shop around and there is good enough rates to be had.

Spot on Bimgobus, IIRC Donagh is saving to buy a house so in real terms you could say he's had a 35% return on his cash in the last year. (That's the sum i'm consoling myself with any way.)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on February 06, 2009, 04:48:36 PM
Quote from: bingobus on February 06, 2009, 12:26:17 PM
Quote from: Donagh on February 05, 2009, 11:45:30 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on February 05, 2009, 08:08:40 PM
I'm sick of the Bank of England cutting rates, I dont understand how it's helping.  The banks arent passing on the whole rate cut so aren't they making more and more money out of it? It's f**king the pound, isn't it? People with savings or trying to save are suffering while the greedy and stupid taking out mortgages they couldnt afford or being bailed out, with the banks.  I am sick to the teeth of the very people who caused this mess getting bailed out while those who were sensible and responsible are being screwed. 

Tell me about it  >:(

Isn't part of th idea to make people spend and stimulate rather than save and keep money out of circulation. Also, as inflation is so low and possibly heading to deflation, isn't your money appreciating in value as in real terms you can buy more with it regardless of the interest it earned. Still, its always nice to see interest been earned but shop around and there is good enough rates to be had.


Looks like you can get savings interest at 2% tops but buying money will as usual cost at least 5% even if you can find someone who will lend.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: bingobus on February 06, 2009, 05:11:28 PM
Quote from: orangeman on February 06, 2009, 04:48:36 PM
Quote from: bingobus on February 06, 2009, 12:26:17 PM
Quote from: Donagh on February 05, 2009, 11:45:30 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on February 05, 2009, 08:08:40 PM
I'm sick of the Bank of England cutting rates, I dont understand how it's helping.  The banks arent passing on the whole rate cut so aren't they making more and more money out of it? It's f**king the pound, isn't it? People with savings or trying to save are suffering while the greedy and stupid taking out mortgages they couldnt afford or being bailed out, with the banks.  I am sick to the teeth of the very people who caused this mess getting bailed out while those who were sensible and responsible are being screwed. 

Tell me about it  >:(

Isn't part of th idea to make people spend and stimulate rather than save and keep money out of circulation. Also, as inflation is so low and possibly heading to deflation, isn't your money appreciating in value as in real terms you can buy more with it regardless of the interest it earned. Still, its always nice to see interest been earned but shop around and there is good enough rates to be had.


Looks like you can get savings interest at 2% tops but buying money will as usual cost at least 5% even if you can find someone who will lend.

Investec (Monaghan's new sponsors) have fixed 5.5% pa for six months, not sure if you'll get it for the next six months though but its not bad. Minimum €20,000 though. Ulster Bank regular saver is about 4.7% at present.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: pintsofguinness on February 07, 2009, 11:23:42 AM
Quote from: bingobus on February 06, 2009, 12:26:17 PM
Quote from: Donagh on February 05, 2009, 11:45:30 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on February 05, 2009, 08:08:40 PM
I'm sick of the Bank of England cutting rates, I dont understand how it's helping.  The banks arent passing on the whole rate cut so aren't they making more and more money out of it? It's f**king the pound, isn't it? People with savings or trying to save are suffering while the greedy and stupid taking out mortgages they couldnt afford or being bailed out, with the banks.  I am sick to the teeth of the very people who caused this mess getting bailed out while those who were sensible and responsible are being screwed. 

Tell me about it  >:(

Isn't part of th idea to make people spend and stimulate rather than save and keep money out of circulation. Also, as inflation is so low and possibly heading to deflation, isn't your money appreciating in value as in real terms you can buy more with it regardless of the interest it earned. Still, its always nice to see interest been earned but shop around and there is good enough rates to be had.
I dont see many prices down.  A weeks shopping is still costing the same as it did 6 months ago, maybe if I went out and bouguht a wide screen tv I'd notice a saving but since I could lose my job anyday I won't be doing that.  The interest rates cut are doing more harm than good and the people who are helped most by it are the banks and those with mortgages or loans they can't afford. 
Once again, the greedy in society are being bailed out.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on February 09, 2009, 10:46:41 PM
Bank of Ireland Staff get 3.5% pay increase (http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/ideyauauoj/)

Let me see if I got this right. Cowan freezes pay increases and increases pension contributions from the public sector, fair enough. It needs to be more efficient. The money from the National Pension Reserve will be used to bail out (recapitalise) the Irish banks, which is fair enough as we need to have banks.

But one of the banks benefiting from the bail-out, gives its staff the same pay rises that the public sector (and most of the private sector) have had frozen.

Do these people have any nous at all?

 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Declan on February 10, 2009, 03:49:35 PM
This just gets better:

UK's biggest mortgage lender HBOS fired manger who warned of excessive risk in 2005; Paul Moore was then subjected to a gagging order
By Finfacts Team
Feb 10, 2009 - 2:59:07 PM   Email this article
Printer friendly page


HBOS Plc, the UK biggest mortgage lender, which was taken over by Lloyds Banking Group Plc, in a government sponsored rescue late last year, was reported today to have conducted an independent investigation into allegations by its head of regulatory compliance that the bank was taking too many risks, former Chairman Dennis Stevenson told the House of Commons Treasury Select Committee today. Head of compliance Paul Moore was fired and subjected to a gagging order.

HBOS, which owned Bank of Scotland (Ireland) and its Irish mortgage operation Halifax, carried out a nine-month inquiry in 2005 into allegations which were "taken very seriously," Stevenson said. The bank's documents on the issue could be made available to Parliament, he added.
George Mudie, a Labour MPP on the Committee old Stevenson and former HBOS Chief Executive Officer Andy Hornby that Paul Moore, former head of group regulatory risk, had been dismissed and that the bank then issued a "gagging order."
"When I was head of group risk I certainly knew that the bank was going too fast and told them," Moore said in written evidence to the Committee released today. The bank's behavior "was a serious risk to financial stability and consumer protection."
"My team and I experienced threatening behavior by executives when carrying out its legitimate role in overseeing their compliance,"with Financial Services Authority regulations, Moore added. In response to questioning, Hornby denied that threats were made.

"The one thing I can assure, there was no denial, anything to do with risk is taken very seriously by the board," Stevenson said."That is a fact."
George Mudie said HBOS sacked Moore for raising the issue of excessive risks that the bank was taking. "He took you to an industrial tribunal and he won," Mudie said.
"You paid him undisclosed damages and put a gagging order on him. You didn't want anybody being blunt with you about the risks you were running."
"At the end of the day you sacked your group risk fellow. Now four years later it turns out he was right and you were wrong," Mudie said.
Mudie said the head of regulatory risk at the bank between 2002 and 2004, was replaced by someone with no risk experience.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on February 10, 2009, 05:23:03 PM
US unveils new $1.5 trillion plan 
Timothy Geithner's three steps to recovery
US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has unveiled a comprehensive $1.5 trillion (£1.02 trillion) bank bail-out plan to beat the financial crisis.

Under the plan, the size of a key Federal Reserve lending program will be expanded to $1 trillion from $200bn.

In addition, a public-private investment fund of $500bn will be created to absorb banks' toxic assets.

"Right now critical parts of our financial system are damaged," Mr Geithner said.
"Instead of catalyzing recovery, the financial system is working against recovery, and that's the dangerous dynamic we need to change," he added.

Leading US stock indexes fell after Mr Geithner started his speech on the new plan.

Transparency and accountability

Mr Geithner said the new plan should unfreeze the credit market, strengthen banks and "provide critical aid for homeowners and for small businesses".

"And as we do each of these things, we will impose new higher standards for transparency and accountability," he added.

He said that the public-private investment fund to buy up risky assets will be seeded with government money and could be expanded to $1 trillion.

The expanded Federal Reserve lending program will support lending to small businesses and consumers, including credit card lending and student loans, and also cover the troubled commercial real estate market.

The government also will give banks access to additional capital from the Treasury's original $700bn bail-out fund "as a bridge to private capital".

But that will come with strict terms, including full disclosure and limits on executive pay.

"This assistance will come with terms that should encourage the institutions to replace public assistance with private capital as soon as that is possible," said Mr Geithner.

Crisis 'not over'


  We don't know yet if we'll need additional money, or how much

President Obama
Q&A : Bank bail-out plan


President Obama said on Monday that Mr Geithner's plan would be a template for "restoring market confidence".

"The credit crisis is real, and it's not over," added the president.

President Obama has so far said it is too early to say whether the $700bn bank bail-out scheme, officially called the Troubled Asset Relief Program (Tarp), will need more funds.

"We don't know yet if we'll need additional money, or how much additional money we'll need," he said.

Tarp was passed by President Bush in October, whose administration spent the first $350bn.

Meanwhile, President Obama's wider economic stimulus plan is facing a crucial vote in the Senate. This is expected to cost an additional $800bn.



Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Declan on February 11, 2009, 07:18:28 AM
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2009/0211/1233867932122.html (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2009/0211/1233867932122.html)

Christ Almighty what does it take for people to realise that our whole financial sector is rotten to the core?
We're going down the toilet and these bastards are falsifying accounts and misleading shareholders and nothing happens:(-
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Hardy on February 11, 2009, 08:58:39 AM
Nothing happens? They get paid. They get bonuses. They get to NEGOTIATE with the representatives of the taxpayers, who are giving them OUR money, about the terms on which they will accept it - including their own pay and whether they should get bonuses! And they get to stay out of jail.

Of all the sources of outrage that have piled upon each other in the last six months, the government's soft-shoe-shuffle with the banks while putting their hands in workers' pockets is the one that will bring the people onto the streets.

Have they never heard of Marie Antoinette?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on February 11, 2009, 11:04:42 AM
Quote from: Declan on February 11, 2009, 07:18:28 AM
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2009/0211/1233867932122.html (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2009/0211/1233867932122.html)

Christ Almighty what does it take for people to realise that our whole financial sector is rotten to the core?
We're going down the toilet and these b**tards are falsifying accounts and misleading shareholders and nothing happens:(-

I don't think this is a huge issue tbh, I'm sure it was standard practice throughout the sector and the only way to combat this would be for the regulator/legislators to insist that reserves etc are assessed by their average/median value throughout the year rather than by assessing them at a point in time.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Declan on February 11, 2009, 11:14:31 AM
QuoteI don't think this is a huge issue tbh, I'm sure it was standard practice throughout the sector

So it's alright to deliberately transfer money to give a false value of deposits on the end of year balance sheet ???

If that was standard practice then the whole system need to be taken apart
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on February 11, 2009, 11:26:57 AM
Quote from: Declan on February 11, 2009, 11:14:31 AM
QuoteI don't think this is a huge issue tbh, I'm sure it was standard practice throughout the sector

So it's alright to deliberately transfer money to give a false value of deposits on the end of year balance sheet ???

If that was standard practice then the whole system need to be taken apart
Possibly, but certainly the regulation has to be revamped.  Whilst this was probably an attempt to stay within regulatory guidelines, it wasn't actually fooling anyone, I don't think there was a rush to lend anglo money based on their balance sheet and the regulator was apparently informed of this movement and subsequent withdrawal, so the purpose was just a wee bit of window dressing around year end, that the regulator was probably aware of.  I'd be interested to see if similar was happening at the other banks' year ends.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Declan on February 11, 2009, 11:34:12 AM
It sure would be interesting to see if that practice was widespread - Didn't fool anyone - without showing my ignorance again it certainly seems to have fooled the auditors 

It now appears that our great leader knew about this two months ago!!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on February 11, 2009, 12:53:16 PM
Quote from: Declan on February 11, 2009, 11:34:12 AM
It sure would be interesting to see if that practice was widespread - Didn't fool anyone - without showing my ignorance again it certainly seems to have fooled the auditors 

It now appears that our great leader knew about this two months ago!!!

fooled and satisfied are different things
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on February 11, 2009, 01:20:54 PM
BogBall XV how do we know that the cash on the balance sheets of all our banks is not merely the one lump cash of one bank? Since they have different year ends they could just move around that lump so that they all look solvent? And of course it is legal.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on February 11, 2009, 03:24:11 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 11, 2009, 01:20:54 PM
BogBall XV how do we know that the cash on the balance sheets of all our banks is not merely the one lump cash of one bank? Since they have different year ends they could just move around that lump so that they all look solvent? And of course it is legal.


This seems to be have been exactly what was going on. Move it around whenever it was needed to show your crednetials.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Hardy on February 11, 2009, 03:54:28 PM
Spot on.

If it's not illegal, it most certainly should be. It's designed to deceive customers and investors and clearly may lead people to part with money they wouldn't part with if they knew the truth. Truth as a concept clearly doesn't exist in the Irish banking system. I have always believed and remember stating here long ago that the Irish banking system was no more than an organised and unregulated cartel of loan sharks. This latest revelation is complete proof of that.

If we don't send someone to jail soon in this country, a la Enron, etc. we can expect to be given the toe of the international banking system's boot when we go looking for loans.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on February 11, 2009, 04:38:12 PM
Quote from: Hardy on February 11, 2009, 03:54:28 PM
Spot on.

If it's not illegal, it most certainly should be. It's designed to deceive customers and investors and clearly may lead people to part with money they wouldn't part with if they knew the truth. Truth as a concept clearly doesn't exist in the Irish banking system. I have always believed and remember stating here long ago that the Irish banking system was no more than an organised and unregulated cartel of loan sharks. This latest revelation is complete proof of that.

If we don't send someone to jail soon in this country, a la Enron, etc. we can expect to be given the toe of the international banking system's boot when we go looking for loans.

No point sending them to jail - make them cough up what they've stolen.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on February 11, 2009, 04:56:16 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 11, 2009, 01:20:54 PM
BogBall XV how do we know that the cash on the balance sheets of all our banks is not merely the one lump cash of one bank? Since they have different year ends they could just move around that lump so that they all look solvent? And of course it is legal.
We don't!!  But the regulator does, afaik they have to file quarterly with the regulator and since year ends of the big 5 are:
BOI - 31 March
AIB - 31 Dec
ILP - 31 Dec
Anglo - 31 Sept
INBS - 31 Dec

There is certainly the potential for manipulation, why do AIB and BOI have different year ends?  However given that the regulator is supposed to be kept informed of deposits with other banks and so on, one would think that the same money can't be moved around indiscrimately.
In the case in question, I think that Anglo phoned ILP and said we're in serious bother here, if our real numbers go out it'll be bad for all of us, with the new guarantee your money is safe anyway, so please give us a digout and we'll throw you a decent rate of interest.
The regulator (and who else) probably knew all about it, but as deposits were at that stage flowing into irish banks, decided that it would serve no good to make an issue of it.
I don't think investors were fooled at all, for a start nobody was believing a word coming from irish banks, the audit report wasn't released until this month and presumably anglo release results quarterly anyway, so it would have been easily picked up, I think this was a last gasp attempt by anglo to save itself.
In addition auditors are supposed to take steps to monitor activity post balance sheet, but in this case by the time ILP withdrew their money again deposits were presumably flying in from around the world (because of the guarantee) so the reserves had probably improved from balance sheet date regardless of ILP's transaction.
I think the fitzpatrick issue is much more serious to be honest.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on February 11, 2009, 05:20:30 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on February 11, 2009, 04:56:16 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 11, 2009, 01:20:54 PM
BogBall XV how do we know that the cash on the balance sheets of all our banks is not merely the one lump cash of one bank? Since they have different year ends they could just move around that lump so that they all look solvent? And of course it is legal.
We don't!!  But the regulator does, afaik they have to file quarterly with the regulator and since year ends of the big 5 are:
BOI - 31 March
AIB - 31 Dec
ILP - 31 Dec
Anglo - 31 Sept
INBS - 31 Dec

There is certainly the potential for manipulation, why do AIB and BOI have different year ends?  However given that the regulator is supposed to be kept informed of deposits with other banks and so on, one would think that the same money can't be moved around indiscrimately.
In the case in question, I think that Anglo phoned ILP and said we're in serious bother here, if our real numbers go out it'll be bad for all of us, with the new guarantee your money is safe anyway, so please give us a digout and we'll throw you a decent rate of interest.
The regulator (and who else) probably knew all about it, but as deposits were at that stage flowing into irish banks, decided that it would serve no good to make an issue of it.
I don't think investors were fooled at all, for a start nobody was believing a word coming from irish banks, the audit report wasn't released until this month and presumably anglo release results quarterly anyway, so it would have been easily picked up, I think this was a last gasp attempt by anglo to save itself.
In addition auditors are supposed to take steps to monitor activity post balance sheet, but in this case by the time ILP withdrew their money again deposits were presumably flying in from around the world (because of the guarantee) so the reserves had probably improved from balance sheet date regardless of ILP's transaction.
I think the fitzpatrick issue is much more serious to be honest.

BogBall XV given the long night that concluded with the guarantee it now seems that Anglo were gone if:
a) there was no action by the Government
b) if that action was only a guarantee unless another bank gave them a short loan of €4 Billion.

It seems logical to assume that on that long night the Government had to know this as the dogs in the street knew Anglo were floundering (before Fitzpatrick's action became public). If the Government knew this, then the guarantee was a bluff and they sat on their hands for 3 more months before finally nationalising a bank they knew months earlier was failing.

In the meantime the inaction and doubt has dragged down the other banks and it looks as if they all will have to be re-capitalised.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on February 11, 2009, 08:21:26 PM
I think that about sums it up Muppet, do you think is there a possibility that the bank guarantee was required before ILP would make their deposit?  Would it be the biggest shock in the world to find out in a month or so that ILP had been 'encouraged' to make this deposit?
If you look back we both pretty much said that the guarantee was a bluff and that Anglo should have been let go, I think there could be more revelations as to why this didn't happen, as there seems to be plenty of innuendo as to who exactly has accounts in there.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on February 11, 2009, 08:28:29 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on February 11, 2009, 08:21:26 PM
I think that about sums it up Muppet, do you think is there a possibility that the bank guarantee was required before ILP would make their deposit?
Nail on the head.

QuoteWould it be the biggest shock in the world to find out in a month or so that ILP had been 'encouraged' to make this deposit?
Let's just say you don't hear of competitors giving each other huge digouts do you?

Quote
If you look back we both pretty much said that the guarantee was a bluff and that Anglo should have been let go, I think there could be more revelations as to why this didn't happen, as there seems to be plenty of innuendo as to who exactly has accounts in there.
It is slowly being excreted into the public domain though.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Declan on February 12, 2009, 07:34:06 AM
Bastards should be locked up -
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on February 12, 2009, 10:35:45 AM
More revelations today, it's getting worse and worse and I'll revise my assessment, this latest story is worse than the loans and the perps should be severely punished.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Declan on February 12, 2009, 10:38:28 AM
From other forums etc

1. You really couldn't make this up, the €6bn figure wasn't made up this morning BOI must have known this, then why not tell the Government that prior to the recap. Whatever else, it may (I doubt) have spurred the Dept of Finance to seek other guarantees to protect our investment. They have given the timeline up to March 11, as sure as ducks lay eggs there will be an impairment charge of €2bn pa starting this March accounts. Its in the common domain now, the auditors will insist on it, so bye bye 8% "nailed on coupon".They are lying again, they continue to lie and undermine this country with lies and fraud, they are in effect "traitors".
2. Lenihan told us on Morning Ireland this am that he was aware (for a change) of the BOI figures before the recap announcement.
3. If they have to write off 10% of the book now, what will the have to write off over the next two years, as we race to 500k+ on the dole, and everyone else taking significant paycuts, as shopping center units and offices empty out. The worst of this crisis, is still ahead of us
4.Anglo BORROWED the money on the money markets, and lodged it with IL&P.L&P then transferred it to a subdivision of IL&P - their fund management division, who lodged it as a DEPOSIT (not a normal interbank transfer) to make it look like fund managers had faith in Anglo, and to make their End of Year deposit sheet look in the black, when in fact was money they had just borrowed.It's like you borrowing from AIB, giving the money to your mum, who transfers it to you, and then you going to BofI and asking for a loan saying "Look - I've got loads of savings!"
5. George Lee was on RTE this morning. He said, live on air, that the €7B ILP/Anglo transaction was FRAUD. As far as he's concerned a deception was perpetrated on the market and a civil case by share holders is a cert. It's a HUGE deal, we've actually got the banks coming clean now in the form of AIB and BOI on what's on their books and with the recap it should help boost their shares. Currently they are BOTH down 11 and 3 % respectively .
6. Another 1000 jobs gone out in the airport.

Get the pikes and pitchforks ready
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: stephenite on February 12, 2009, 11:00:46 AM
It is absolutley mind boggling.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: FermGael on February 12, 2009, 11:08:53 AM
Lads this is just absolutely crazy/scary stuff.

Ireland as a country is stuffed.  The debt being talked about here is crazy.
The Politicians sat and watched it happen. Anybody that predicted this at the time was ridiculed for being negative. 
Our grandchildren are going to be paying this back, if there is still a country left.
This is way beyond a depression.  Ireland should head to the IMF before other countires beat them to it. 


The only good thing is that at least the truth is getting out. 
In the UK it is still being covered up and it will be just as bad.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on February 12, 2009, 11:20:37 AM
Quote from: Declan on February 12, 2009, 10:38:28 AM

5. George Lee was on RTE this morning. He said, live on air, that the €7B ILP/Anglo transaction was FRAUD. As far as he's concerned a deception was perpetrated on the market and a civil case by share holders is a cert. It's a HUGE deal, we've actually got the banks coming clean now in the form of AIB and BOI on what's on their books and with the recap it should help boost their shares. Currently they are BOTH down 11 and 3 % respectively .
Get the pikes and pitchforks ready

Didn't hear that but when I saw the new facts today that's what I thought - there is no other description for it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: FermGael on February 12, 2009, 11:27:32 AM
Brown is getting some grilling at the moment. Nearly over
here's the link http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7884877.stm (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7884877.stm)

Admits that he did not know that the FSA had reservations about HBOS even though he appointed the former head of HBOS as the financial regulator. 
The left hand does not know what the right hand is doing.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: stephenite on February 12, 2009, 11:34:03 AM
Quote from: Declan on February 12, 2009, 07:34:06 AM
b**tards should be locked up -

Should be - but is there any chance it will actually happen?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Barna Bee on February 12, 2009, 11:52:31 AM
Quote from: FermGael on February 12, 2009, 11:27:32 AM
Brown is getting some grilling at the moment. Nearly over
here's the link http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7884877.stm (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7884877.stm)

Admits that he did not know that the FSA had reservations about HBOS even though he appointed the former head of HBOS as the financial regulator. 
The left hand does not know what the right hand is doing.



FermGael, you appear to be taking some solace in the idea that the UK banking troubles are worse or even more dispicable then anything that is happeneing in Ireland.

Much as I hate to say it and burst your bubble at the same time......

Ireland ...it's politics and culture and antics have long been the joke of Europe ....no real investtor/ heavy investor would touch an Irish company on the irish stiock exchange.Soon it will be down graded by all the rating agencies too and rasiing further funds on int market will cost you all a fortune.

Folks ....this is the start of a complete meltdown ...Iceland ....at least they have fish

Ireland is in a far worse position then the UK and has no weapons/resources to get it'self out of this mess. the UK manages itself and is a G7economy , however bad it gets it won't be like Ireland.

Ireland has long been living way beyond it's means and has the highest dept per capita in the world (well almost)

What has come to light in the irish banking system over the past few days is very very shocking ....if this was the UK/US people would resign/ be sacked /fall on their sword. The frighteneing thing about it all in Ireland is that nobody will go to gaol, nobody will be prosecuted but the tax payer will be milled for gernertions .

This cute hoor culture is now coming home to roost.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Rossfan on February 12, 2009, 11:57:37 AM
Quote from: FermGael on February 12, 2009, 11:08:53 AM
Lads this is just absolutely crazy/scary stuff.

Ireland as a country is stuffed.  The debt being talked about here is crazy.
The Politicians sat and watched it happen. Anybody that predicted this at the time was ridiculed for being negative. 


The politicians encouraged it never mind watch it happen.
The few people who timidly said that the economy might be in trouble as it was all a building bubble on borrowed money were savaged as "left wing pinkos"(Fcukhead McCreevy) and "whingers and moaners"(Areshole Ahern).
Now when we need the people to spend money to at least keep a consumer economy ticking for a while..they can't because they are so overborrowed.
But the question is where did the FFBuilders and FFDevelopers put all the money they get? >:(
Why cant that be used to recapitalise banks? ::)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Declan on February 12, 2009, 12:14:59 PM
Recently we had a European country which was very similar to our own.

The government lied persistently to their own people
The rich escaped taxes
The poor carried the can.
The political leadership was so detached they lived in Gold palaces

Their Central Bank and Government was a cesspit of corruption

What is the difference between Ireland and Nicolae Ceauşescu's Romania,
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: FermGael on February 12, 2009, 12:37:59 PM
Quote from: Barna Bee on February 12, 2009, 11:52:31 AM


FermGael, you appear to be taking some solace in the idea that the UK banking troubles are worse or even more dispicable then anything that is happeneing in Ireland.

Much as I hate to say it and burst your bubble at the same time......

Ireland ...it's politics and culture and antics have long been the joke of Europe ....no real investtor/ heavy investor would touch an Irish company on the irish stiock exchange.Soon it will be down graded by all the rating agencies too and rasiing further funds on int market will cost you all a fortune.

Folks ....this is the start of a complete meltdown ...Iceland ....at least they have fish

Ireland is in a far worse position then the UK and has no weapons/resources to get it'self out of this mess. the UK manages itself and is a G7economy , however bad it gets it won't be like Ireland.

Ireland has long been living way beyond it's means and has the highest dept per capita in the world (well almost)

What has come to light in the irish banking system over the past few days is very very shocking ....if this was the UK/US people would resign/ be sacked /fall on their sword. The frighteneing thing about it all in Ireland is that nobody will go to gaol, nobody will be prosecuted but the tax payer will be milled for gernertions .

This cute hoor culture is now coming home to roost.

I would have to say i disagree with you.  Was listening to Brown there now. 
What was one of his solutions??   The housing market should be re stimulated.  There is still demand.
HOW can there still be demand for houses when the are hugely overpriced and unemployment is kicking in
Thats what got us here in the first place.  All over the world.  He has not learnt the lesson.

They are no longer a G7 economy.  I'm sorry but those days are long gone.

They are going to print money.  That is one of the solutions being touted.  Seriously!!!  Germany, 1930's, Hyperinflation, Hilter anybody
The UK are trying to force people to spend because interest rates are so low.
what are people doing??  Saving even more
Things are bad in the UK, you just have not seen the extent of it.
It is a much more multi cultural society than Ireland and you will see racism of the most extreme kind appearing when things really get bad.
We have already seen a small example of that with the Italian's in the North of england

This recession will hit the middle classes all over the world.  Thats why it is so serious!!
Previous recessions have only the the working class.  They were OK!!!!
This one will see solicitor's ,engineer's out of work. 
That's why there is a panic.

Quote from: Rossfan on February 12, 2009, 11:57:37 AM

The few people who timidly said that the economy might be in trouble as it was all a building bubble on borrowed money were savaged as "left wing pinkos"(Fcukhead McCreevy) and "whingers and moaners"(Areshole Ahern).


Ross i am sorry but McCreevy and more so Ahern are as much to blame, if not more so than anybody else.
If they were that worried about the building bubble then they would have done something about it.
Where is all the money from previous Budget surpluses went??
Did it not dawn on the 2 of them to may put some away for a rainy day??
Nope, they spent it all

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on February 12, 2009, 12:56:06 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on February 12, 2009, 11:57:37 AMBut the question is where did the FFBuilders and FFDevelopers put all the money they get? >:(
Why cant that be used to recapitalise banks? ::)
It can't be used to bail out anything because it didn't ever exist in the first place!!
The developers and builders (and they're not all fat cats, most were normal guys who we all know, trying to turn a decent living) committed the cardinal error of not stopping when they were ahead, mostly to avoid having to pay tax, these guys went out and bid ever increasing amounts (of banks and their own money) for pieces of land that are now worth a small fraction of what they paid.
In theory then landowners should have a few quid left and they should be the ultimate beneficiaries, if they were sensible they paid their 20% CGT, if not they reinvested in more land (bad idea).  So, lets pretend they're sensible, they've got essentially 80% of what the developer paid them, what do they do?  Talk to a financial advisor?  Put the money in the bank and take their 3% or 4% interest (whilst inflation is roaring away at 5/6%)?  Invest their money in a nicely structured portfolio giving them income and the opportunity of financial gain? 
If they took the latter option, their original investment is probably now worth even less than the value of the land bank they sold to the developer.
Obviously this is hypothetical, but I have rumours that the beneficiary of one very profile residential sale in Dublin did exactly that.

Essentially what I'm saying is that much of the wealth that we thought was in Ireland has now been destroyed, it wasn't ever real wealth anyway and had been created only because of the global credit bubble.

Also regarding the UK, it will suffer for a while, but it is in a much better position than Ireland to cope, it has a large indigenous population, it has resources that the rest of the world want and need, it has control over its own economy and whilst many won't agree with me, I think Brown is reasonably competent.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Donagh on February 12, 2009, 01:00:37 PM
I'm not defending Brown FermGael , but there may be a few things you are overlooking.

Quote from: FermGael on February 12, 2009, 12:37:59 PM

What was one of his solutions??   The housing market should be re stimulated.  There is still demand.
HOW can there still be demand for houses when the are hugely overpriced and unemployment is kicking in
Thats what got us here in the first place.  All over the world.  He has not learnt the lesson.

You may be confusing the situation in Ireland (north and south) with Britain. They did not see the same levels of house price inflation as we got over here and indeed there is demand for housing there as is there is here in the north of Ireland.

Quote from: FermGael on February 12, 2009, 12:37:59 PM
They are no longer a G7 economy.  I'm sorry but those days are long gone.

There are still members of the 'G7' which is a much better place to be than Ireland who is not.

Quote from: FermGael on February 12, 2009, 12:37:59 PM
They are going to print money.  That is one of the solutions being touted.  Seriously!!!  Germany, 1930's, Hyperinflation, Hilter anybody
Printing money will weaken sterling but at the moment that is not the major concern. Hyperinflation is not always the end result of printing money - all capitalist economies do it to different degrees all the time. Also don't forget the major concern for the Brits at the moment is deflation.

Quote from: FermGael on February 12, 2009, 12:37:59 PM
The UK are trying to force people to spend because interest rates are so low.
what are people doing??  Saving even more
Things are bad in the UK, you just have not seen the extent of it.
They are trying to get people to spend to get money moving around and prop up the economy which is dying because there is no money moving.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: FermGael on February 12, 2009, 01:45:02 PM
Donagh i think you have mis interpreted me here.
I agree that there still is a demand for housing.  There is no doubt about that.
I am looking for a house but i am not prepared to pay over 4 times my salary to get one.
Prices for houses in both ireland and The UK need to lower.

Both goverments are taking about getting banks to forgo repossessions for 12 months.
This is only going to make the problem worse in the long run IMO.
I decided not to buy because property was massively over valued.
I realized that i could lose on my investment.  Everyone who buys a house takes that risk.

Surely reposessions will sort this out alot quicker and let some sort of equity and liquidity back into the system.
I know its harsh and there are real people and families involved here but thats my opinion.

Interest rates cuts have not worked.  People are refusing to spend.
What about raising interest rates, therfore increasing the capital in banks enabling them to deal with there toxic debts and lend out again at sensible levels??
No that would hit the middle class fella who has 2 properties on interest only.  How could he afford the extra payments??

It may help to be in the G7 and it may be a better place than Ireland but at least Ireland has a young population that may help it deal effectively with this crisis.
Its the one hope the country has.






Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: orangeman on February 12, 2009, 02:33:18 PM
Negative inflation for first time since 1960
Thursday, 12 February 2009 13:38
Official figures show that consumer prices fell slightly in January compared with the same month last year.

The Central Statistics Office said there was an annual rate of -0.1%. Consumer prices in January decreased by 1.7% from December. The CSO says the last time there was negative annual inflation was in 1960.

A breakdown showed that prices of clothing and footwear tumbled by 13% in January due to the winter sales, while lower mortgage repayments and falls in petrol and diesel prices also contributed to the overall drop.

AdvertisementThe housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels category showed a monthly fall of 7%, due to the effect of ECB interest rate cuts and a fall in home heating oil prices. Transport costs fell by 0.8%, while household equipment prices dropped by 2.6%.

But increases in health insurance and car insurance premiums pushed prices of miscellaneous goods and services up 4.6%.

The annual rate of inflation for services was 1.3% in January, but the annual rate for goods was -1.6%. The EU harmonised inflation rate, which excludes mortgage repayments, was 1.1%.

Goodbody's Dermot O'Leary said the annual rate of inflation was likely to remain negative for the next 12 months at least. He said that, in January, the main reason for the significant fall in consumer prices was falling mortgage interest costs.

But a note from Davy said that, excluding mortgages, the rest of the consumer basket actually increased by 0.4% in price in January when seasonal factors such as the January sales are accounted for. 'We forecast that prices will decline hugely in 2009 as interest falls further and the recession bites. The CPI may drop by 3.9%,' it said.

Ulster Bank's Pat McArdle also said he now expect the CPI to remain negative for all of 2009, going below minus 4% in several months.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on February 12, 2009, 04:22:49 PM
Quote from: Declan on February 12, 2009, 10:38:28 AM
From other forums etc

1. You really couldn't make this up, the €6bn figure wasn't made up this morning BOI must have known this, then why not tell the Government that prior to the recap. Whatever else, it may (I doubt) have spurred the Dept of Finance to seek other guarantees to protect our investment. They have given the timeline up to March 11, as sure as ducks lay eggs there will be an impairment charge of €2bn pa starting this March accounts. Its in the common domain now, the auditors will insist on it, so bye bye 8% "nailed on coupon".They are lying again, they continue to lie and undermine this country with lies and fraud, they are in effect "traitors".
2. Lenihan told us on Morning Ireland this am that he was aware (for a change) of the BOI figures before the recap announcement.
3. If they have to write off 10% of the book now, what will the have to write off over the next two years, as we race to 500k+ on the dole, and everyone else taking significant paycuts, as shopping center units and offices empty out. The worst of this crisis, is still ahead of us
4.Anglo BORROWED the money on the money markets, and lodged it with IL&P.L&P then transferred it to a subdivision of IL&P - their fund management division, who lodged it as a DEPOSIT (not a normal interbank transfer) to make it look like fund managers had faith in Anglo, and to make their End of Year deposit sheet look in the black, when in fact was money they had just borrowed.It's like you borrowing from AIB, giving the money to your mum, who transfers it to you, and then you going to BofI and asking for a loan saying "Look - I've got loads of savings!"
5. George Lee was on RTE this morning. He said, live on air, that the €7B ILP/Anglo transaction was FRAUD. As far as he's concerned a deception was perpetrated on the market and a civil case by share holders is a cert. It's a HUGE deal, we've actually got the banks coming clean now in the form of AIB and BOI on what's on their books and with the recap it should help boost their shares. Currently they are BOTH down 11 and 3 % respectively .
6. Another 1000 jobs gone out in the airport.

Get the pikes and pitchforks ready


I heard Pat Rabbitte last night calling for a cross party investigation. I have great respect for my countyman but he is way off this time. The last thing we need is politics involved where the best we could hope for is a 10 year €300 million tribunal that achieves nothing.

This should be investigated at the very least by the fraud squad and given that there may be some very powerful Irish people implicated maybe we should consider bringing in a foreign agency specialising in corporate fraud.

The thing though is most of what is coming out from the banks at the moment is only being revealed because of the financial meltdown. This is operation normal in Irish big business in my experience.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on February 14, 2009, 05:42:39 PM
http://www.rgemonitor.com/globalmacro-monitor/255556/the_g7_needs_to_act_this_weekend_on_ireland (http://www.rgemonitor.com/globalmacro-monitor/255556/the_g7_needs_to_act_this_weekend_on_ireland)

Are we about to hear something drastic in Ireland?  :-\
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: bcarrier on February 15, 2009, 11:04:57 AM
I presume you are refering to rising cost of insuring govt debt.

The whole anglo irish scandal (in particular latest revelation of £300m in non recourse loans)  reminds me of the guinness share support scandal of late 80s .

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/34910.stm
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Hardy on February 15, 2009, 12:16:04 PM
I don't imagine anyone really thought we'd heard all the scams going on in Anglo. Well, you were right, there's more ... and probably more after that too. This one's a beauty. They get 10 "well-connected businessmen" to take out loans from Anglo to buy shares in Anglo, with property as collateral. Then when it becomes obvious that the shares are worthless, the change the collateral to the now worthless shares, so that the property is safe and the lads just give back the shares in lieu of the 30 million each!

A key question is the bit in bold - did the government collude in this defrauding of the taxpayer to the tune of €300 million?

(Health warning - the source is Sunday Independent  (http://www.independent.ie/national-news/anglo-shares-boosted-by-euro300m-loan-to-10-tycoons-1640717.html) . This paper has published lies as front page news before, so we'll wait and see if reputable sources corroborate.)


Anglo shares boosted by €300m loan to 10 tycoons
Taxpayers left with bill as investigators probe terms of loans to well-connected businessmen


Sunday February 15 2009

ANGLO Irish Bank loaned a total of €300m to 10 wealthy individuals last July in a controversial arrangement designed to support the bank's share price, the Sunday Independent can reveal.

In what is feared in Government circles to be a potential new banking scandal, which may have political implications, the 10 millionaire business people, including several household names, each borrowed €30m from Anglo Irish to buy shares in the bank.

The Sunday Independent understands that the regulatory authorities in Dublin are currently investigating whether Anglo Irish subsequently changed the original non-recourse loan terms by substituting as collateral the then plummeting, now virtually worthless, shares purchased by the loans.

The taxpayer is currently exposed to the €300m debt at the now nationalised bank.

Details of the controversial arrangement are understood to be contained in an unpublished Price Waterhouse Cooper report provided to the Government in October.

It is understood to be also referred to in a draft copy of Anglo Irish Bank's annual report which has been received by the Department of Finance. That document is to be published on Friday.

It is understood that the loans were initially offered and accepted on what, in banking circles, is known as "non-recourse" terms.

A non-recourse loan is secured by a pledge of collateral — typically property — for which the borrower is not personally liable. If the borrower defaults at a later date, the lender can seize the collateral — but the lender's recovery is limited to the then value of that collateral.

The purpose of nonrecourse debt is to require lenders to underwrite their loans on a sustainable and prudent basis since the lender is in the first-loss position with these loans, not the borrower.

The bank's 10 high-profile clients used the €300m to purchase shares in Anglo Irish Bank in an ultimately unsuccessful attempt to support the bank's share price.

It is understood that when the share price continued to fall the borrowers negotiated a new arrangement with Anglo Irish which had the effect of substituting as collateral the Anglo Irish bank shares purchased using the loans from the bank. Those shares are now virtually worthless.

The Government is expected to come under pressure to reveal its knowledge of the arrangement.

Specifically, the Opposition will want to know if the Government had knowledge before it introduced its bank guarantee scheme last September. The scheme guaranteed all debts and deposits in Irish banks.

The Opposition parties will also want to know if the Government was aware of the transactions before Anglo Irish Bank was nationalised in January.

In relation to this arrangement alone, the introduction of the guarantee scheme and the nationalisation of Anglo Irish Bank both separately exposed the taxpayer to potential losses of €300m.


The Sunday Independent understands that the 10 clients are well-connected business figures.

The Government will argue that the guarantee scheme and subsequent nationalisation of Anglo Irish Bank were in the national interest.

It is understood that Anglo Irish entered into the arrangement with the 10 clients at a time when billionaire business man Sean Quinn and his family were in the process of converting their interests in the bank from Contracts for Difference (CFDs) to ordinary shares, which represented close to 15 per cent of the bank.

CFDs are high-risk investment products where investors can bet on the future direction of a stock without having to actually buy the shares.

At this time, in the middle of 2008, the Quinn family said they had decided to convert their holdings in Anglo Irish to reflect their long-term commitment to the investment.

"The family regards these shareholdings in Anglo Irish Bank as long-term holdings with significant opportunity for capital growth over such a period," Mr Quinn said.

At the start of July 2008, Anglo's share price had fallen to €4.08. With 769m shares in issue, that still valued Anglo at €3.13bn. In a matter of weeks, by July 23, the shares rose to €6.73 each. However, they soon afterwards began to fall dramatically.

Mr Quinn has confirmed that his family has sustained losses in excess of €1bn on its investments in Anglo Irish.

But he has vigorously denied any impropriety in relation to his share dealings.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: pintsofguinness on February 15, 2009, 12:33:39 PM
It's getting ridiculous.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Main Street on February 15, 2009, 12:41:50 PM
This thread should called the Big Failout.


If you want to understand a bit of how the money supply and inflation works in a country then you have to get access to M1 M2 and M3 figures that a country's Central Bank publishes in its quarterly/annual accounts.
M1 is cash  real money in circulation
m2 is cash deposits  
m3 is what the CB allows for loans/investments  for private/ business    credit.
The Fed actually hasn't published M3 figures since mid 2005. The crucial M3 figures are a Fed secret.
What's happening in the US is that the Fed have cut down on giving Banks  M3 money supply to loan out in exchange for loan collateral from the client.
ie. house value, the business plan  or the investor/gambler.
The CB/Fed have no confidence in the value of the collateral or the clients capacity to repay.
The Banks can't loan out, therefore the USD is in severe short supply, eg business/individual have to sell assets to raise cash.
They are not getting it from the Bank.
That is why the USD has not collapsed in value.

Obama's solution is to start the money supply. The Fed will print all that money and make it available. The money will be added to the money supply but there are no assets being offered as collateral.
It is the equivalent of Gov borrowing.
Loss in value to the USD is inevitable.
This Obama plan will not revitalse the US economy but keep it mainlined for a short period.



Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Declan on February 15, 2009, 03:18:17 PM
Anglo was the developers bank ergo it was the FF bank - It's a given that that knew about this but they'll bluster and waffle and no one will hold them to account. If people care about this country and our futures they will take to the streets next Sat - don't care what the initial "cause" was unless the people show something these bastards will get way scottfree. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: bcarrier on February 17, 2009, 03:04:08 PM
Fritz to the rescue...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_en&refer=home&sid=aGwRmgq6Tz7w

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on February 17, 2009, 07:35:55 PM
The Chairman of Irish Nationwide Michael Walsh has just resigned. there wasn't even a public witch hunt for him, yet.

Falling like flies now, except for the Minister of course.

Well.....if the Cap Fitz, eh Brian?

(BCarrier could legitimately ask if the cap Fritz?)

Where will this end? Total nationalisation of all the banks? Collapse of the ISEQ? Collapse of the .........?

Edited to add link: Irish Nationwide Chairman Resigns (http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0217/irishnationwide.html)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on February 17, 2009, 08:18:35 PM
Read the link I posted a couple of days ago and read BCarrier's link above.

It seems reasonable to assume that our banking sector is on it's last legs and we are possibly talking weeks rather than months.

The question is what is going to happen next? Anyone have any ideas?


Meanwhile the staff biggest union at IL&P has called for the resignation of the Chairperson
http://www.independent.ie/breaking-news/national-news/business/unite-says-staff-have-no-confidence-in-ilp-chair-1642619.html (http://www.independent.ie/breaking-news/national-news/business/unite-says-staff-have-no-confidence-in-ilp-chair-1642619.html)

I personally think the union should be positioning itself to hang on for dear life.
Title: Bank guarantee likely to deal a crippling blow to the economy
Post by: armaghniac on February 17, 2009, 10:08:17 PM
from Irish Times.
Bank guarantee likely to deal a crippling blow to the economy

ANALYSIS: Government borrowing is not an immediate problem, but the extent of banks' bad debts may prove catastrophic, writes MORGAN KELLY

BETWEEN COLLAPSING house prices, bankrupt banks and spiralling unemployment, you might be forgiven for thinking that fate has already dealt Ireland every misfortune in its hand. However, there may be one more unpleasant surprise in store for us, the prospect that international investors unexpectedly stop lending to the Government.

Economists call this a "sudden stop". The original sudden stop occurred in 1998 when a default by Russia panicked lenders away from Latin America and plunged their economies into prolonged crisis.

The consensus among Irish economists is that government borrowing is not an immediate problem. Ireland has a low level of public debt by international standards, and even a few years of heavy borrowing will still leave it below Greek and Italian levels.

To understand why this view is too complacent, imagine that you are a bank manager and somebody that we will call Brian (not his real name) comes in looking for a loan.

Brian's income is €30,000 and he would like to borrow €20,000 to cover living expenses. This sounds like a lot in these nervous times but, because Brian is not carrying much debt, you think you might lend to him.
However, Brian then lets it slip that, because his income is falling sharply, he will need to borrow at least as much each year for the foreseeable future. He also admits that, late one night and for what seemed like good reasons at the time, he somehow agreed to insure the gambling losses of some "banks".

Brian has no idea how large these losses might be, but is starting to fear that they might be substantial. At this stage, you realise that Brian is on a trajectory into bankruptcy and show him the door.

Multiply the numbers in this story by a million and you begin to understand why Ireland makes bond markets nervous. First, the Irish economy is heading into a severe and prolonged slump that will force the Government to borrow heavily at a time when markets are increasingly reluctant to lend heavily.

Secondly, the Government's delay in revealing how much its bank liability guarantee is likely to cost is making markets suspect that the final bill will be crushing.

After a decade of a credit-fuelled property bubble, the economy is not so much crumbling as vaporising: were we the size of Britain, January's rise in unemployment would have been over half a million.

As the economy collapses, so does the Government's tax revenue. This year the Government will have to borrow about €20 billion – everything it spends on wages or on social welfare – or about 15 per cent of a falling national income.

With no chance that the hopelessly uncompetitive economy will recover in the next five years and little sign that the Government has any appetite for serious cuts in spending or increases in taxation, borrowing looks set to continue at around this level for the foreseeable future.

If this borrowing was the limit of the Government's liabilities, Ireland would probably just about weather the storm in the bond markets. Unfortunately, an elephant is lurking in the corner in the form of the bank liability guarantee, and this looks increasingly certain to sink the economy.

In my view, the Government has made insufficient effort to estimate how much its banks have lost. We have therefore had the bizarre experience of nationalising Anglo Irish Bank and recapitalising Allied Irish Banks and Bank of Ireland without knowing precisely the extent of their bad debts.

The Government has not updated its estimate of losses since Brian Lenihan's boast that the liability guarantee was "the cheapest bailout in the world so far", an assurance that already ranks in the annals of supreme political irony alongside Neville Chamberlain's "peace in our time".

The ability of the State to continue funding itself ultimately depends on the size of these bad debts. If they are of the order of €10–€20 billion, we will survive. If they are of the order of €50-€60 billion, we are sunk.

Irish banks could easily lose this much. If we suppose that most of the €20 billion lent to builders will not reappear this side of Judgment Day, along with 20 per cent of the €90 billion lent to developers, and 10 per cent of the €120 billion in mortgages, then we are already up to €50 billion.

These are only guesses. However, the continuing stream of revelations from Anglo Irish – which bear out the old investment dictum that there is never just one cockroach in a kitchen – suggest that they could be optimistic guesses.

To see what would happen to Ireland if foreign lenders suddenly pull the plug, we only need to look at what happened in Latvia last December. We would be forced to seek an international bailout, with the International Monetary Fund and European Union playing bad cop and good cop. We could expect cuts of one-quarter to one-third in public sector wages and social welfare benefits, and draconian tax rises to bring the deficit back to around 5 per cent of national income in two years.

There is actually a worse scenario where international bond markets suffer a general panic, like 1998. Not only does Ireland gets torpedoed, but also Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain and Austria. The IMF and EU simply would not have the resources to bail out so many economies and we would be entirely on our own.

In circumstances where the Government could not even pay public sector salaries, the bank guarantee would immediately become worthless and we would see an uncontrollable run on all the Irish banks.

Watching the ineptitude and complacency of Lenihan's bank bailout, we can understand increasingly how the people of New Orleans must have felt as they watched George Bush rescue their city: "Brianie: you're doing a heck of a job."

Particularly galling are the Government's efforts to feign surprise and indignation at the behaviour of the banks, when the reality is that this is how we have always done business here. All that the Anglo affair has done is to hold up our grubby brand of crony capitalism for international ridicule.
For increasing numbers of ordinary people, the Irish economic miracle has turned out to be as worthwhile as a share in Bernard L Madoff Investments.

In return for working hard and paying their taxes, the lucky ones who keep their jobs can now look forward to pay cuts, negative equity and savage tax rises; while the unlucky ones face prolonged unemployment and losing their homes, their cars and everything for which they have worked.
If, on top of this, we suffer a sudden stop, people will see their pensions and Government spending slashed to pay off the gambling losses of Seán FitzPatrick and his pals. The Irish social fabric would certainly rip and unprecedented civil disorder ensue.

Bill Clinton's feared enforcer James Carville once said that he would like to be reincarnated as the bond market, because that way you get to intimidate everyone.

Without decisive and intelligent Government action in the next few weeks, by the end of this year we will understand exactly what he meant.

Morgan Kelly is professor of economics at University College Dublin
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: orangeman on February 17, 2009, 10:15:58 PM
Without decisive and intelligent Government action in the next few weeks, by the end of this year we will understand exactly what he meant.


What ammunition have the govt left ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: tyronefan on February 17, 2009, 10:23:03 PM
what a year to look forward to. maybe we should go on holidays and come home when its over
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Rois on February 18, 2009, 11:21:08 AM
The final Zavvi store in NI closed today.  The second or third retail unit in Belfast's Victoria Square that has hit the wall.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Hound on February 18, 2009, 11:38:26 AM
In the Indo today, news that KPMG are effectively letting go over 100 chartered accountants. People coming out of their training contracts are not being offered permanent contracts.

Last week it was announced AL Goodbodys were doing similar with over 50 newly qualified solicitors.

I'm sure there's plenty more to come from other firms in those sectors.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Rois on February 18, 2009, 11:47:54 AM
Quote from: Hound on February 18, 2009, 11:38:26 AM
In the Indo today, news that KPMG are effectively letting go over 100 chartered accountants. People coming out of their training contracts are not being offered permanent contracts.


Yep, trainees were told on Monday apparently.  Offered temporary 4 contracts to June is what my source told me.

It's been mentioned to me already that we've been OK so far but if some transactions don't occur in the next few months, it might hit me too.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: stephenite on February 18, 2009, 11:53:58 AM
Can anyone explain to me what effect letting Anglo Irish bank go to the wall would have had on the general economy?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Hound on February 18, 2009, 11:57:36 AM
Quote from: stephenite on February 18, 2009, 11:53:58 AM
Can anyone explain to me what effect letting Anglo Irish bank go to the wall would have had on the general economy?
There lies the problem. Nobody can actually explain, because nobody knows. All guesswork.

Pretty much every decision that has been made in the US, UK and Ireland has done no good, so its easy criticise. When the US let a couple of banks go bust, it was deemed to be the wrong decision, bigtime.

Of course our crowd do seem worse than everyone else, but thats maybe coz we know them best.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: stephenite on February 18, 2009, 12:00:31 PM
Quote from: Hound on February 18, 2009, 11:57:36 AM
Quote from: stephenite on February 18, 2009, 11:53:58 AM
Can anyone explain to me what effect letting Anglo Irish bank go to the wall would have had on the general economy?
There lies the problem. Nobody can actually explain, because nobody knows. All guesswork.

Pretty much every decision that has been made in the US, UK and Ireland has done no good, so its easy criticise. When the US let a couple of banks go bust, it was deemed to be the wrong decision, bigtime.

Of course our crowd do seem worse than everyone else, but thats maybe coz we know them best.

Fair enough - I could understand bailing out AIB, BOI, Permanent TSB etc. but the reasons behind Anglo Irish are obviously beyond me, I don't buy the 'maintaining the confidence in Irelands financial sector'
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Zapatista on February 18, 2009, 01:21:55 PM
Is anyone here willing to admit they are one of the Golden Circle that received a 300million gift loan from Anglo? As we don't know who they are i thought someone might admit to it here under the secracy of their user name.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: An Gaeilgoir on February 18, 2009, 01:34:45 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on February 18, 2009, 01:21:55 PM
Is anyone here willing to admit they are one of the Golden Circle that received a 300million gift loan from Anglo? As we don't know who they are i thought someone might admit to it here under the secracy of their user name.
[/quote

I dont think it will be long now before it is public knowledge following the greens comments this morning. Also it seems that a government minister is somehow involved in this "golden circle" Enda was asking some fairly specific questions on the matter this morning in taoiseach's question time. According to the news at one he definetely knows something. What odds on a general election before the Easter?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Zapatista on February 18, 2009, 01:36:55 PM
The Cabinate are a Golden Circle.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Rossie11 on February 18, 2009, 01:38:48 PM
Lads/Lassies for my own info in lay mans terms is this the story of the 300m and the golden circle?

Anglo loans 300m to people to buy shares in Anglo with property as collateral.
When the shares start to collapse the banks swap the collateral on the loan from the property which may be worth something to the shares themselves which are worth sweet FA.


Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Zapatista on February 18, 2009, 01:59:16 PM
Quote from: Rossie11 on February 18, 2009, 01:38:48 PM
Lads/Lassies for my own info in lay mans terms is this the story of the 300m and the golden circle?

Anglo loans 300m to people to buy shares in Anglo with property as collateral.
When the shares start to collapse the banks swap the collateral on the loan from the property which may be worth something to the shares themselves which are worth sweet FA.

The loans were given to support the share price. 75 million was offered as collateral per 300 million loan. This has since been written off. The bank was Nationalised and you and i and other tax payers must now pay that bill :D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: mouview on February 18, 2009, 04:15:22 PM
Rumour has it a prominent FF TD is one such member.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Donagh on February 18, 2009, 04:25:31 PM
On politics.ie they reckon the 10 have E66 million yoyos coming to them in the form of tax allowances because of their 'loss'. Ya gotta laugh...
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: bingobus on February 18, 2009, 04:43:27 PM
Quote from: Donagh on February 18, 2009, 04:25:31 PM
On politics.ie they reckon the 10 have E66 million yoyos coming to them in the form of tax allowances because of their 'loss'. Ya gotta laugh...

Capital Gains losses that they can carry forward indefinately until such time that they have any gains to be made on disposal of assets they may realise. I assume this is what they are talking about. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Zapatista on February 18, 2009, 05:14:50 PM
Quote from: mouview on February 18, 2009, 04:15:22 PM
Rumour has it a prominent FF TD is one such member.

:o :o :o :o :o :o :o
:o :o :o :o :o :o :o
:o :o :o :o :o :o :o
:o :o :o :o :o :o
:o :o :o :o :o :o

Just kidding :D :D :D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on February 18, 2009, 05:27:43 PM
Can someone correct me if I got this wrong please?

The dogs in the street knew that famous night something big was going down. I posted here that when I got up in the morning that the Irish Banks would never be the same again. I didn't name the institution but everyone knew who it was.

The next morning no one was more surprised than those who knew something was happening to hear about the Bank guarantee. Like I have said here before I don't work in the financial sector so I needed a few days of talking to those who do to get an angle on it.

A few thought it might work, the rest said it was a huge gamble and most likely a dangerous bluff.

That was then.

Note that the now infamous Anglo year end was 30th September. Note also that the government guarantee was announced on, guess what, the Irish Times 30th September (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2008/0930/breaking7.htm).

It seems now that the day before the guarantee Anglo approached IL&P and asked them for €3 Billion in loans. It appears that the IL&P refused.

Most informed observers expected us to wake up the next day with at least one less Irish bank.

When the Government announced their guarantee of 'certain debt' the IL&P reversed their decision of the previous day and loaned the requested money to Anglo. We know now what Anglo used that money for and it appears that the IL&P were complicit in that act. Independent.ie (http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/anglo-got-83644bn-day-after-deposit-request-rejected-1643129.html)

Suddenly we had a very happy and 'secure' Irish banking system with Anglo closing up 67% that day at €3.84.

What we are now supposed to believe is that, despite talking to all the banks that long night, the Taoiseach and the Minister for Finance never knew about the need for, the request for, the refusal of and subsequent approval of the huge loan to get Anglo out of the crisis that some financial observers believe precipitated the long night in the first place.

From the Irish Times article:
Quote"Let's be clear about this the Government is not underwriting shareholders funds or hazardous investments in banks, the Government is looking at those who lend to the banks.
"We're not in the position of bailing out banks or assisting those who have invested on a risk basis in a bank. What we're guaranteeing here is the lifeblood of the banking system. The system of lending and borrowing that is essential to the successful operation of any banking system," he added.

Mr Lenihan also denied that the guarantee would cost taxpayers.

Since then the Minister for Finance has denied that he was advised to leave Anglo (& Irish Nationwide) out of the loan guarantee scheme.  Independent.ie (http://www.independent.ie/national-news/lenihan-denies-he-was-told-to-exclude-bank-from-guarantee-1608314.html)

He also claims he didn't read the part of the PWC report that would have warned him of the €7 Billion that Anglo accounts showed it had on deposit, which of course we now know it hadn't. This was of course in the build up to the nationalisation of Anglo.

It seems a truly remarkable coincidence that the Government didn't know about Anglo's financial crisis on the night of the 29th Sept and then accidentally solved it for them by the morning.

The crazy thing is that it was the directors' loans issue that brought down the bank, though it pales in comparison to the €7 Billion that wasn't. The Fitzpatrick revelation, though only a mere €122 Million, was enough to send the market running for cover and collapse the institution.

It is amazing how right they were to suspect that it might have been only the smoke to Anglo's fire and they should have known less than the Government.

And they didn't even know about the €300 Million Golden Circle share fraud or the non-existent €7 Billion.

Neither, apparently, did poor BLenihan.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Rossfan on February 18, 2009, 05:38:44 PM
Anglo Irish was the Builders(and therefore FF's) Bank. I understand Irish Nationwide were part of  the same stable.
Now d'ye understand why the Government moved to save them .. ::)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: ludermor on February 18, 2009, 05:49:51 PM
im not sure what you are getting at Rossfan, are you trying to say something
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Rossfan on February 18, 2009, 06:11:04 PM
Yes !!!!! Dont want GAAboard being sued for libel so I'll stick to well known things ....
No doubt you heard of the Galway races tent and who used to frequent it and who always got what  they wanted  ...
All sorts of Section 23 tax reliefs being given for private house building inflating an already overheated market... increased densitys giving inner city type developments in green fields, moving Dempsey when he tried to dampen the property bubble..

Will the Green Party prop up the rotten FFBuilder party much longer?
Dan Boyle the new McDowell ...lets hope he's not as toothless
Now we taxpayers have to mortgage our grandchildrens future to pay for all those cnuts and what  they did to our country.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Zapatista on February 18, 2009, 06:12:50 PM
You are way of the mark the muppet. We are not expected to believe it. When someone is only accountable to themselves it doesn't matter who believes them.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: bcarrier on February 18, 2009, 06:15:34 PM
Muppet - excellent post.

Saw this retort to Morgan Kelly on another forum ...


Morgan Kelly supposes

that most of the €20 billion lent to builders will not reappear this side of Judgment Day, along with 20 per cent of the €90 billion lent to developers, and 10 per cent of the €120 billion in mortgages, then we are already up to €50 billion.

Why would land and stock underlying loans to builders become worthless ? If banks lent 80% of cost a 40% write down in value of stock and Wip exposes them to a £5 Billion loss ie 25% of the loan book.

If the develop loans were also 80% of GDV and commercial property falls by say a third ( with falling interest rates unlikely but with collapse of high st possible) the banks could lose another 15bn.

I just dont see where you can justify writing 10% of the mortgage loan book off . This supposes that there are repossessions resulting in 12bn of write offs . Irish banks are not inclined to repossess but it say the number rose to 10,000 a year for next three years ( it was 50 in 2006 ) with a loss of 100K per house total exposure would be £3Bn.

There is a further possible black hole for non recourse lending to wealthy individuals ( anglo share purchases etc) but overall I think he overstates the problem .
   


Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Donagh on February 18, 2009, 06:22:24 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on February 18, 2009, 06:11:04 PM
Yes !!!!! Dont want GAAboard being sued for libel so I'll stick to well known things ....
No doubt you heard of the Galway races tent and who used to frequent it and who always got what  they wanted  ...
All sorts of Section 23 tax reliefs being given for private house building inflating an already overheated market... increased densitys giving inner city type developments in green fields, moving Dempsey when he tried to dampen the property bubble..

Will the Green Party prop up the rotten FFBuilder party much longer?
Dan Boyle the new McDowell ...lets hope he's not as toothless
Now we taxpayers have to mortgage our grandchildrens future to pay for all those cnuts and what  they did to our country.

:D :D

Yeah right. Saw him on Vincent Brown last night and he made a fool of himself. He's just another FF crony now.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Zapatista on February 18, 2009, 06:31:27 PM
The fault lies with everyone who backed FF though thick and thin just because they thought they were getting a piece of the pie too. I have little sympathy for (many of) the Irish people yapping about being hard done by now. Many people i know were hell bent on buying up the private property deals made in Galway in order to rent them in the old British Landlord way. They had no regard for how tose deals were made or what impact it was having in society and in communities across Ireland as long as they had someone renting their house. Tough!!!

The only saving grace is that they see the errors of their ways now as FF have yet to do.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Donagh on February 18, 2009, 06:54:01 PM
I blame Hardy for changing his mind in the polling booth.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Donagh on February 18, 2009, 06:58:55 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on February 18, 2009, 06:31:27 PM
The fault lies with everyone who backed FF though thick and thin just because they thought they were getting a piece of the pie too. I have little sympathy for (many of) the Irish people yapping about being hard done by now. Many people i know were hell bent on buying up the private property deals made in Galway in order to rent them in the old British Landlord way. They had no regard for how tose deals were made or what impact it was having in society and in communities across Ireland as long as they had someone renting their house. Tough!!!

The only saving grace is that they see the errors of their ways now as FF have yet to do.

Yip, know a boy who bought three from plan outside Ballina a few years ago and is now working every hour God sends to meet the payments as he can't get the rent to cover them. Same boy works in construction, luckily he doesn't have any dependents.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Smokin Joe on February 18, 2009, 08:31:39 PM
Where the feck is Lone Shark when you need him?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Hardy on February 18, 2009, 08:40:39 PM
Quote from: Donagh on February 18, 2009, 06:54:01 PM
I blame Hardy for changing his mind in the polling booth.

Yiz can't touch me! And thanks everybody for guaranteeing my deposits and writing off me loan.  

Good synopsis, Muppet. Another few points:

1. Brian Cowen, as minister for Finance, reversed a Revenue recommendation to change the tax treatment of Contracts For Difference (previously tax free) so that they would be stamp taxed the same as ordinary share purchases. Within days, the famous huge purchase of Anglo CFDs by a well known businessman took place.

2. I'd bet Kenny has a cabinet name linked to the 10-man golden circle. He was asked three times by Brian Dobson this evening whether, based on his Dáil question today, he had reason to suspect that a cabinet member was involved and each time he evaded the question, but avoided saying 'No'.

3. Since the Anglo share price responded to the phantom ILP deposit, it's hard to see how this transaction can be seen as anything other than manipulation of the share price. That's a criminal offence with very large financial and custodial penalties (millions and 10 years, I believe).
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on February 18, 2009, 08:52:15 PM
Quote from: Hardy on February 18, 2009, 08:40:39 PM
Quote from: Donagh on February 18, 2009, 06:54:01 PM
I blame Hardy for changing his mind in the polling booth.

Yiz can't touch me! And thanks everybody for guaranteeing my deposits and writing off me loan.  

Good synopsis, Muppet. Another few points:

1. Brian Cowen, as minister for Finance, reversed a Revenue recommendation to change the tax treatment of Contracts For Difference (previously tax free) so that they would be stamp taxed the same as ordinary share purchases. Within days, the famous huge purchase of Anglo CFDs by a well known businessman took place.

2. I'd bet Kenny has a cabinet name linked to the 10-man golden circle. He was asked three times by Brian Dobson this evening whether, based on his Dáil question today, he had reason to suspect that a cabinet member was involved and each time he evaded the question, but avoided saying 'No'.

3. Since the Anglo share price responded to the phantom ILP deposit, it's hard to see how this transaction can be seen as anything other than manipulation of the share price. That's a criminal offence with very large financial and custodial penalties (millions and 10 years, I believe).

1. The Taoiseach admitted that he was informed about a CFD problem at Anglo. He seems to have never been informed about the solution though which of course would have meant they should never have extended the guarantee to Anglo.

2. Kenny has reached his defining moment. If he has nothing it will be the end of him. If he has something it will be the end of FF. The Greens could also join the PDs.

3. No one ever goes down in Ireland for that sort of stuff, but here's hoping.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: stephenite on February 18, 2009, 09:57:34 PM
Quote from: Donagh on February 18, 2009, 06:58:55 PM
Yip, know a boy who bought three from plan outside Ballina a few years ago and is now working every hour God sends to meet the payments as he can't get the rent to cover them. Same boy works in construction, luckily he doesn't have any dependents.

Idiot - who on earth could possibly think any town in the West was a good place to purchase investment properties?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Hardy on February 19, 2009, 09:06:54 AM
Fine Gael have now come out and said they do believe there is a FF link to the circle of ten (Phil Hogan on Morning Ireland this morning). Willie O'Dea, fighting out of the other corner, said the main concern about releasing the names of the ten is that it could compromise any possible criminal proceedings. He has a point, of course, but  FF's position until now was that they didn't know who they were.

Willie also said that Cowen has asked the cabinet whether any of them has anything to divulge and the answer was no.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Hound on February 19, 2009, 09:14:38 AM
I'm all for naming the circle of 10, but I don't understand the "criminal proceedings" bit. I thought it was the case that they didnt do anything wrong. Anglo offered them a deal and they took it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Hardy on February 19, 2009, 09:22:10 AM
Their actions could (should, I'd say) be interpreted as manipulation of the share value, which is a criminal offence under corporate governance legislation.

By the way, it's been leaked that there's a new plan:

(http://i648.photobucket.com/albums/uu206/Hardyarse/Revenue.jpg)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: the Deel Rover on February 19, 2009, 09:37:43 AM
Quote from: Hardy on February 19, 2009, 09:22:10 AM
Their actions could (should, I'd say) be interpreted as manipulation of the share value, which is a criminal offence under corporate governance legislation.

By the way, it's been leaked that there's a new plan:

(http://i648.photobucket.com/albums/uu206/Hardyarse/Revenue.jpg)


:D :D Very good hardy wouldn't be surprised to see that form introduced 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Lone Shark on February 19, 2009, 09:39:18 AM
I love the bit about prejudicing criminal proceedings - as if such an investigation will ever happen in this gombeen kleptocracy. The only bloody sanction we have is to name and shame these guys, but by God FF won't even let that happen. This is a classic maneouvre designed to kick the issue into touch in the short term and hope that it goes away, no doubt when the next set of budget figures come out.


Quote from: Smokin Joe on February 18, 2009, 08:31:39 PM
Where the feck is Lone Shark when you need him?

Lone Shark is right here as always, but to be honest even I didn't think that the level of corruption and cronyism went quite this deep. I'll tread warily here since I understand that the line between what can and can't be said is very subtle, but previously I thought that our government was not averse to a little self enrichment on the side as long as the state was kept between the ditches, so to speak. It now appears that as long as the self-enrichment is possible, the entire state and every citizen within it suffering untold damage doesn't seem to bother them in the slightest. They will rape and pillage us to the very last.

It has gone past the point where outrage is needed. The only FF voters left now are those who are simply brainwashed, whether by civil war politics, or possibly by developing a football supporters mentality about their politics. (You know the type - their political allegiance was bestowed upon them by family and it never occurred to anyone that they have the freedom to change their minds). In order to salvage our nation and to have any chance of restoring international confidence in us and in dealing with us, there must be transparency and full application of the rigours of the law. We are actually entering a historic time and the current generation of FF have the potential to go down in Irish history in the same vein as Oliver Cromwell and his armies, with Bertie and Ollie pretty much two peas in a pod. The only chance that Cowen (or anyone else for that matter) has to avoid that stain is to announce an election and that they will be stepping down, and to spend the three months in the run up to it, not campaigning, but purging the state of all the rotten carcass that we know exists. By that I mean revealing the infamous Golden Circle, revealing every donor to FF individuals and party down the years, revealing every scandal that was covered up, giving a true state of the national accounts, telling exactly what compensation was paid to Anglo shareholders (don't you love the way that they managed to hide that info under the "national interest"!!)

The night of the bank guarantee is huge - it's clear that we need to know the full train of events. Why exactly was Anglo saved? What was the advice on which the two Brians acted? What were the repercussions that they were trying to avoid? All we hear is general guff about "Saving the Irish financial system" and "confidence in our banking sector" but nobody explains specifically how they expected matters to pan out if Anglo was left to fall. Who would have suffered? What would the knock on effects have been, step by step rather than a big grandiose summary? I don't consider myself well enough versed in the workings of the bond markets and the CFD trade to be able to know what institutions were dependant on Anglo (and Irish Nationwide, for that matter) surviving, but I respect what happened to the States when Lehman brothers fell. I also know that Goldman Sachs made out like bandits in that particular instance and I've no idea who did here, but I'm damn sure that someone did.

With everything that's gone on, I've lost faith in our elected government, in our collective intelligence as voters, in our watchdog system and in our legal system's ability to prove and punish whitecollar wrongdoing. (Witness what happened in the US with Allen Stanford this week - who honestly believes that we could see anything like that here?) However, rightly or wrongly, I do have faith in our constitution. The time has come for a hero to stand up, and that hero will be another Daniel O'Connell - they will be a legal brain who will be able to go to the Supreme Court and establish that Brian Lenihan was acting ultra vires when he gave the guarantee. I have no doubt that there would be something in there somewhere preventing the Oireachteas from risking the very sovereignty of the state at a moment's notice. If we can abolish that God forsaken guarantee, then we can let the whole house of cards crumble safe in the knowledge that once we are out the far side, we can start again rebuilding our country with the work ethic, ingenuity and togetherness that is innate to us, albeit got badly hidden over the past decade underneath the avarice and the accumulation.

Nobody will act in the best interests of the state when the state is not acting in the best interests of the people. Countless groups will discuss industrial action in the coming weeks and months, some justified and some much less so. Nobody wants to bear any of the brunt themselves as long as they perceive that those who made out like bandits are getting away with it. The elephant in the room is the fact that if the state were to seize every penny that these people owned, the wage cuts and the tax increases would still have to take place because we are in a ridiculously deep hole. Cowen and Lenihan do themselves or indeed Ireland no favours by talking about saving two billion - we need to find the guts of ten, and that will still leave us borrowing about the same again at junk bond rates. If this was stated clearly, then people would get on with it. However as long as they talk of only two billion being needed, well then that can always be got somewhere else - it doesn't need to be out of my pocket, will be the cry of the worker, the state employee, the small businessman and everyone else.

Just like with the banks, we need to start from scratch - however we've been reared to propagate a society where every decision, from ministerial decree right down to ticking the boxes in the voting booth, is made out of self interest. Now is the time for the national interest, and we're really not very good at that.

It's funny how with every issue over the past ten years, the government response was to hire consultants to prepare a report. They have now left us so bad that their last act as a government might be to hand over the very reins to another set of consultants, be they the ECB or the IMF.  
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: the Deel Rover on February 19, 2009, 09:50:33 AM
Quote from: Lone Shark on February 19, 2009, 09:39:18 AM

If we can abolish that God forsaken guarantee, then we can let the whole house of cards crumble safe in the knowledge that once we are out the far side, we can start again rebuilding our country with the work ethic, ingenuity and togetherness that is innate to us, albeit got badly hidden over the past decade underneath the avarice and the accumulation.


Just wondering Loan Shark if the bank guarantee was removed would there not be just a massive run on money with all the banks with people withdrawing whatever savings they have with them  thus guaranteeing the collapse of the Irish Banking System. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: bcarrier on February 19, 2009, 09:52:21 AM
I remember reading something ( in tribune I think) about a meeting of anglo customers in a dublin hotel about April/ May last year to organise a fighting fund to see off the hedge funds who were shorting the stock . I had a look for it on tribune website last night but couldnt find it. If you had the attendees I am pretty sure you have the core of the big ten. I presume they wont show up in a company search as will be held through nominee accounts .

Moral of the story ( as alluded to by T Tiernan at IFTAs) ...If you are in a hole stop digging.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Zapatista on February 19, 2009, 09:59:17 AM
Quote from: Lone Shark on February 19, 2009, 09:39:18 AM

Lone Shark is right here as always, but to be honest even I didn't think that the level of corruption and cronyism went quite this deep. I'll tread warily here since I understand that the line between what can and can't be said is very subtle, but previously I thought that our government was not averse to a little self enrichment on the side as long as the state was kept between the ditches, so to speak. It now appears that as long as the self-enrichment is possible, the entire state and every citizen within it suffering untold damage doesn't seem to bother them in the slightest. They will rape and pillage us to the very last.


With everything that's gone on, I've lost faith in our elected government, in our collective intelligence as voters, in our watchdog system and in our legal system's ability to prove and punish whitecollar wrongdoing. (Witness what happened in the US with Allen Stanford this week - who honestly believes that we could see anything like that here?) However, rightly or wrongly, I do have faith in our constitution. The time has come for a hero to stand up, and that hero will be another Daniel O'Connell - they will be a legal brain who will be able to go to the Supreme Court and establish that Brian Lenihan was acting ultra vires when he gave the guarantee. I have no doubt that there would be something in there somewhere preventing the Oireachteas from risking the very sovereignty of the state at a moment's notice. If we can abolish that God forsaken guarantee, then we can let the whole house of cards crumble safe in the knowledge that once we are out the far side, we can start again rebuilding our country with the work ethic, ingenuity and togetherness that is innate to us, albeit got badly hidden over the past decade underneath the avarice and the accumulation.
 

Very good as always Loneshark, however I do have issue with a few points.

The Government have been enriching themselves in front of us for nearly 20 years. We decided to turn a blind eye to it as we were enriching ourselves too. It has been clear for a very long time that the country has many at the top who have only one interest yet as long as we got the crumbs from the table we were happy for them to continue. We cannot be absolved from blame as we actively encouraged and defended this behaviour.

Ingenuity and togetherness has never been inate to the Irish.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Zapatista on February 19, 2009, 10:02:38 AM
Quote from: the Deel Rover on February 19, 2009, 09:50:33 AM
Quote from: Lone Shark on February 19, 2009, 09:39:18 AM

If we can abolish that God forsaken guarantee, then we can let the whole house of cards crumble safe in the knowledge that once we are out the far side, we can start again rebuilding our country with the work ethic, ingenuity and togetherness that is innate to us, albeit got badly hidden over the past decade underneath the avarice and the accumulation.


Just wondering Loan Shark if the bank guarantee was removed would there not be just a massive run on money with all the banks with people withdrawing whatever savings they have with them  thus guaranteeing the collapse of the Irish Banking System. 

The system has collapsed. The problem is that we are drawing out the process of paying for it. A long and slow death. We would be better destroying the entire system from root to tip and starting again from scratch. Like a building about to fall you are better to control it's destruction rather than gamble with maintaining it when it will certainally fall at some stage.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Lone Shark on February 19, 2009, 10:03:18 AM
Quote from: the Deel Rover on February 19, 2009, 09:50:33 AM
Quote from: Lone Shark on February 19, 2009, 09:39:18 AM

If we can abolish that God forsaken guarantee, then we can let the whole house of cards crumble safe in the knowledge that once we are out the far side, we can start again rebuilding our country with the work ethic, ingenuity and togetherness that is innate to us, albeit got badly hidden over the past decade underneath the avarice and the accumulation.


Just wondering Loan Shark if the bank guarantee was removed would there not be just a massive run on money with all the banks with people withdrawing whatever savings they have with them  thus guaranteeing the collapse of the Irish Banking System. 

There would certainly. However, and I say this as somebody who has no real assets other than a savings in said banks and a wee bit of gold, it still would be the better option right now. You create a new bank where all the deposits and loans are moved to and you freeze access to anything other than living expenses for the short term, while you default on all the bonds and interbank loans made by those banks.

The citizens suffer some loss now, but over time as people pay off their mortgages and so on, the bulk of the cash gets recovered and people get their deposits back. Since every loan and deposit would be matched up with a PPS number, then there would be a good chance of some of the big guys having huge loans in one institution that they had no intention of paying back, balanced off with deposits elsewhere. Any eventual shortfall can be made up by the state over an extended period of time - but since you've got rid of all the big stuff, the exposure is limited. It's not a good situation, but it beats the state being out to the tune of hundred billion, or the equivalent of €25k per man woman and child in the state.

Again let me stress this would not suit me at all, but I don't see an alternative.  
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Lone Shark on February 19, 2009, 10:07:12 AM
Quote from: Zapatista on February 19, 2009, 09:59:17 AM
Quote from: Lone Shark on February 19, 2009, 09:39:18 AM

Lone Shark is right here as always, but to be honest even I didn't think that the level of corruption and cronyism went quite this deep. I'll tread warily here since I understand that the line between what can and can't be said is very subtle, but previously I thought that our government was not averse to a little self enrichment on the side as long as the state was kept between the ditches, so to speak. It now appears that as long as the self-enrichment is possible, the entire state and every citizen within it suffering untold damage doesn't seem to bother them in the slightest. They will rape and pillage us to the very last.


With everything that's gone on, I've lost faith in our elected government, in our collective intelligence as voters, in our watchdog system and in our legal system's ability to prove and punish whitecollar wrongdoing. (Witness what happened in the US with Allen Stanford this week - who honestly believes that we could see anything like that here?) However, rightly or wrongly, I do have faith in our constitution. The time has come for a hero to stand up, and that hero will be another Daniel O'Connell - they will be a legal brain who will be able to go to the Supreme Court and establish that Brian Lenihan was acting ultra vires when he gave the guarantee. I have no doubt that there would be something in there somewhere preventing the Oireachteas from risking the very sovereignty of the state at a moment's notice. If we can abolish that God forsaken guarantee, then we can let the whole house of cards crumble safe in the knowledge that once we are out the far side, we can start again rebuilding our country with the work ethic, ingenuity and togetherness that is innate to us, albeit got badly hidden over the past decade underneath the avarice and the accumulation.
 

Very good as always Loneshark, however I do have issue with a few points.

The Government have been enriching themselves in front of us for nearly 20 years. We decided to turn a blind eye to it as we were enriching ourselves too. It has been clear for a very long time that the country has many at the top who have only one interest yet as long as we got the crumbs from the table we were happy for them to continue. We cannot be absolved from blame as we actively encouraged and defended this behaviour.

Ingenuity and togetherness has never been inate to the Irish.

I guess that I thought that ultimately when push came to shove and the country entered real danger, that our government would actually get their fingers out of the till for a few moments and work on solving the problems. It appears now that they have no interest at all - we're going down in flames and all they want to do is get that last bit of looting done before we all fry.

I do have more faith in Irish people than that too. The re-election of Ahern/Cromwell last time out fairly dented it, but I honestly believe that if we remove the "stroke" as a way of life in Ireland, then people will get back to looking after their families and each other. If we didn't believe that, then there's nothing worth fighting for - we may as well all go down in flames and bide our time till the IMF do come along.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: the Deel Rover on February 19, 2009, 10:12:05 AM
If there was a run on money today for e.g i'd assume that the banks would not have the funds to pay out all the deposits . At this stage where would you put money ? Not that it bothers me i have not a lot of money saved but my mam and dad who have worked hard all thier lifes have some savings and at this stage where would be the best place to put it
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Zapatista on February 19, 2009, 10:27:20 AM
Quote from: Lone Shark on February 19, 2009, 10:07:12 AM

I guess that I thought that ultimately when push came to shove and the country entered real danger, that our government would actually get their fingers out of the till for a few moments and work on solving the problems. It appears now that they have no interest at all - we're going down in flames and all they want to do is get that last bit of looting done before we all fry.

I do have more faith in Irish people than that too. The re-election of Ahern/Cromwell last time out fairly dented it, but I honestly believe that if we remove the "stroke" as a way of life in Ireland, then people will get back to looking after their families and each other. If we didn't believe that, then there's nothing worth fighting for - we may as well all go down in flames and bide our time till the IMF do come along.

I hope to God your right. I do have little faith. My view on the Irish as a Nation is that we tend to divide rather than unite during hard times. I think your view on the Irish people might come from that football supporter mentality you mentioned earlier.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Lone Shark on February 19, 2009, 10:58:17 AM
Quote from: the Deel Rover on February 19, 2009, 10:12:05 AM
If there was a run on money today for e.g i'd assume that the banks would not have the funds to pay out all the deposits . At this stage where would you put money ? Not that it bothers me i have not a lot of money saved but my mam and dad who have worked hard all thier lifes have some savings and at this stage where would be the best place to put it

For pure safety - German government bonds. Denominated in Euro so no broker should charge you too much, and some rate of return. I'd be in favour of having at least 20% of your stored wealth in gold too, but that might be a little volatile for them.

Quote from: Zapatista on February 19, 2009, 10:27:20 AM

I hope to God your right. I do have little faith. My view on the Irish as a Nation is that we tend to divide rather than unite during hard times. I think your view on the Irish people might come from that football supporter mentality you mentioned earlier.

I've said this before on this board, but some of the community work that is done voluntarily where I come from is simply fantastic. When it's neighbours and friends people do row in together and I think we would do this on a national scale too, if the conditions were right.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: bcarrier on February 19, 2009, 10:59:22 AM
All too busy fixing ( or deflecting) the blame rather than problem at the minute.

Solutions:

1. Get properly qualified ( numerate) people into senior govt and monitoring positions ( all parties and co-op from private sector as required).
2. Define and limit states exposure through bank guarantee ( Not as much as speculated IMO).
3. Reduce the budget deficit and sell it to the country ( pensions levy has a part to play but also need to reduce benefits - deflation justifies it as does international benchmarking)
4. Reduce the minimum wage ( it is driving jobs overseas and puts up shop prices)
5. Tap Brussels for a few bn.


Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on February 19, 2009, 11:16:32 AM
Quote from: bcarrier on February 19, 2009, 09:52:21 AM
I remember reading something ( in tribune I think) about a meeting of anglo customers in a dublin hotel about April/ May last year to organise a fighting fund to see off the hedge funds who were shorting the stock . I had a look for it on tribune website last night but couldnt find it. If you had the attendees I am pretty sure you have the core of the big ten. I presume they wont show up in a company search as will be held through nominee accounts .

Moral of the story ( as alluded to by T Tiernan at IFTAs) ...If you are in a hole stop digging.

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/anglo-irish-clients-plan-8364500m-revenge-fund-1360423.html

I think this is the story.

If we default on the guarantee where/how do we as a nation go on?  I'm all in favour of the ECB stepping in asap as it is the only way that people are going to accept how totally fcuked we really are.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: An Gaeilgoir on February 19, 2009, 11:33:49 AM
I have to say the debate on here is very informed and intresting. I have a couple of points to add;
]We really have to lower thecost base of our economy, i was talking to a manager for a large fruit and veg. processor and he has to currently is paying vegetable pickers 14 euros an hour, this quite simply is madness and one example of how out of hand things have got. We need to give our reglatory bodies teeth when it comes to enforcing current law, although vested interests would strongly oppose this. The public sector trade unions have to get real about the state of the economy and the cuts have to be accepted- end of. I know loads of very qualified private sector workers recently laid or currently unsure of their jobs who would gladly take a public sector job and the benefits, however small that come with it. Every penny that the government spends across the board has to be accounted for with clear transperacy of all transactions and tenders accounted for. I read an article last week of middle managers in the HSE who have not worked a day in over a year because the staff  hasn't been allocated to their departments. When one of these people raised the matter, thay were told to keep quite, collect their wages and carry on as normal. We have ESB workers in the midlands earning in excess of 80k a year in a power plant that doesn't generate any power!Todays Irish Times names Healy-Rae plant hire in kerry earning 650k last year in Kerry county council contracts, this is a fine example of conflicts of interest that run through EVERY political party in the country both at national and local level. As for the private sector in which i work, employers have to stop blaming the recession for all the ills of their company. There has to be fair play for all workers. i know a lot of thses comments are aspirational but its mt two cents worth.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on February 19, 2009, 11:44:05 AM
Away for a few days but nothing I'm hearing about the golden circle etc surprises me - The only difference between here and places like Zimbabwe is that people aren't dying of starvation - corrupt cronyism
has dominated the largest political party in this country for generations and until we have a revolution nothing will change - Take to the streets
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Double Cross on February 19, 2009, 11:56:30 AM
Quote from: Declan on February 19, 2009, 11:44:05 AM
corrupt cronyism has dominated the largest political party in this country for generations and until we have a revolution nothing will change - Take to the streets

Obviously all the other parties are whiter than white, maybe that is why they have done so well in the last few elections  ::)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on February 19, 2009, 12:21:13 PM
Quote from: Double Cross on February 19, 2009, 11:56:30 AM
Quote from: Declan on February 19, 2009, 11:44:05 AM
corrupt cronyism has dominated the largest political party in this country for generations and until we have a revolution nothing will change - Take to the streets

Obviously all the other parties are whiter than white, maybe that is why they have done so well in the last few elections  ::)
Probably, the people were happy with what FF was giving them.  Truth is given the length of time that FF have been in power since the inception of the state the endemic corruption and air of invincibility was always going to arise, still, people get the government they vote for and all that.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: bcarrier on February 19, 2009, 12:52:27 PM
Well spotted bogball .

There are five names in there for a start.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: armaghniac on February 19, 2009, 01:01:51 PM
QuoteTruth is given the length of time that FF have been in power since the inception of the state the endemic corruption and air of invincibility

FF were no angels, but this lining your own pocket was something that Haughey introduced, I think the earlier generations had other motivations.

Everyone knew of people reporting for work in ESB stations that were closed etc, but did nothing about it, neither FF nor Labour SF etc wanted these people laid off (not sure about FG). Even now the ESB have had a pay rise and are exempt from cutbacks affecting the public service, bus companies etc.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on February 19, 2009, 01:36:32 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on February 19, 2009, 12:52:27 PM
Well spotted bogball .

There are five names in there for a start.


One of them, Quinn, was the benefactor and I would have thought that he could be ruled out as he had to obtain a loan from Quinn Insurance in order to pay for the other 15% of Anglo. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Donagh on February 19, 2009, 01:38:17 PM
Am seriously thinking of buying some gold. Anyone any advice on how I go about it?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on February 19, 2009, 01:45:11 PM
Quote from: Lone Shark on October 09, 2008, 12:12:03 PM
Quote from: Croí na hÉireann on October 09, 2008, 10:23:13 AM
Quote from: Lone Shark on October 09, 2008, 04:53:38 AMThat's not going to happen, so go buy gold. Do it now. I'm not feckin kidding.

Been thinking about this myself, any tips/links on where to start??? Excellent article by the way...

A few people have PM'ed me over this. To be honest, I don't know a whole lot about it. There are plenty of online brokers who will look after it for you in terms of certificates, which as I've covered in my previous post, would do fine in all but the most apocalyptic scenario. I want the gold itself, so I'm going through Gold.ie. I'm only just underway myself though. It was always in the back of my mind, but this Irish government guarantee finally got the skids under me.


Ask the missus Donagh!!  Seriously, it works on both ways, you have the gold and get the kudos!!!  Apparently India has the worlds largest gold reserves - and it's all hanging around bird's necks.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: IolarCoisCuain on February 19, 2009, 02:28:30 PM
Quote from: Donagh on February 19, 2009, 01:38:17 PM
Am seriously thinking of buying some gold. Anyone any advice on how I go about it?

In the States, when you buy gold they give you the actual bar, doubloon or nugget, as appropriate. I don't think that applies here; here, I think you more or less buy the right to own gold, so it's a lot like having shares. And if the broker goes belly-up... :(
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Zapatista on February 19, 2009, 03:27:31 PM
Is all this gold 'fair trade' or is it stolen from Africa and other places?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: the Deel Rover on February 19, 2009, 03:31:58 PM
Comes from monaghan zap  ;) i wonder how these lads are getting on this article was from last year




Gold seam discovered in Monaghan 

The gold seam runs under Armagh, across Monaghan and into Cavan
A huge untapped seam of gold has been discovered near Clontibret in County Monaghan.

The seam, found by Conroy Diamonds and Gold, is believed to be the biggest ever located in Ireland.

Company chairman Professor Richard Conroy said he was delighted by the size of the discovery.

"It's over a million ounces of gold and that's a lot of gold by anyone's standard," he said.

The company issued a formal announcement to the London Stock Exchange saying that it had found the gold, worth around £450m.

"It's a large deposit but it's a low grade deposit so the price of gold becomes very very relevant," said Professor Conroy.

"At present prices it should be economic, so we would expect the feasibility studies to take 18 months to two years, and then we have to go through the planning process, and get a mining licence and then construction can start."

It is thought that the gold covers an area 30 miles in length and Professor Conroy is hopeful of success in Northern Ireland.

"It runs across Armagh, across Monaghan and into Cavan and we're doing quite a lot of work in Armagh.

"We've high hopes of repeating the success of Clontibret in Armagh but it still requires a lot more work. We certainly would hope that something similar would be found," he said.




Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Zapatista on February 19, 2009, 03:45:22 PM
If remember that :D

I remember at school we all had to wrtie a letter to Downing St to protest against digging for Gold in the Pigeon Top outside Omagh (I Think). I now think it was a mean thing to do as I did it only because my Geography teacher told me to. I had (and still have) no idea what I was protesting against or why I was protesting.

I feel used :(
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Lone Shark on February 19, 2009, 03:54:08 PM
Quote from: IolarCoisCuain on February 19, 2009, 02:28:30 PM
Quote from: Donagh on February 19, 2009, 01:38:17 PM
Am seriously thinking of buying some gold. Anyone any advice on how I go about it?

In the States, when you buy gold they give you the actual bar, doubloon or nugget, as appropriate. I don't think that applies here; here, I think you more or less buy the right to own gold, so it's a lot like having shares. And if the broker goes belly-up... :(

I went through Gold.ie and while the commission was extortionate, I'd prefer to put my money into magic beans than Gold certificates. The reason for buying gold is usually one of two: (1) Insurance against politicians trying to "inflate away" debt, which is pretty much what they've said that they're going to try to do, albeit against a serious tide of fiscal contraction in the marketplace, and (2) in case of a run on currency and people losing faith in fiat money. The second scenario is very much tin foil hat country, but that's the thing about these "once in a millenium" occurences - for those trapped when it happens that one time, it's a very real disaster and right now the conditions are there.

Either way, you want to take delivery of the gold yourself - there is a real belief out there (I won't confirm or deny it since I don't know the market well enough, merely say that I'm wary) that there is way more paper gold being traded that actually exists, and that several of these paper certs run the risk of "force majeure" being declared, i.e. somebody deciding that external forces have restricted their ability to deliver the gold that they've promised.

Then you have the spectre of government interference - most of the gold certs in Ireland are Perth Mint - but France, for example, bans the removal of Gold from the country as far as I'm aware. Needless to say a similar action by Australia might distort the market somewhat.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Main Street on February 19, 2009, 04:35:51 PM
Quote from: Donagh on February 19, 2009, 01:38:17 PM
Am seriously thinking of buying some gold. Anyone any advice on how I go about it?
Do it online.
http://www.bullionvault.com/gold_prices.do?considerationCurrency=EUR (http://www.bullionvault.com/gold_prices.do?considerationCurrency=EUR)
it is of little value anyway to have it in your house or even in a bank vault.
What can you do, even with gold coins?
Put a downpayment on a car a house?
The old 'bite it between the teeth' trick has lost its cred.

Some say Gold will rise in value by 500% /or the paper currencies drop down to real values.


Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Hound on February 19, 2009, 04:42:17 PM
Ask a question about gold and minutes later there are banners on the website advertising gold!
Have to hand it to them, that's good work.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on February 19, 2009, 04:45:07 PM
Quote from: Hound on February 19, 2009, 04:42:17 PM
Ask a question about gold and minutes later there are banners on the website advertising gold!
Have to hand it to them, that's good work.
they've been monitoring this thread for sometime ;) ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: IolarCoisCuain on February 19, 2009, 04:46:19 PM
Quote from: Main Street on February 19, 2009, 04:35:51 PM
Quote from: Donagh on February 19, 2009, 01:38:17 PM
Am seriously thinking of buying some gold. Anyone any advice on how I go about it?
Do it online.
http://www.bullionvault.com/gold_prices.do?considerationCurrency=EUR (http://www.bullionvault.com/gold_prices.do?considerationCurrency=EUR)
it is of little value anyway to have it in your house or even in a bank vault.
What can you do, even with gold coins?
Put a downpayment on a car a house?
The old 'bite it between the teeth' trick has lost its cred.

Some say Gold will rise in value by 500% /or the paper currencies drop down to real values.


To be honest with you Main Street, I had half a mind to carry it around stuffed up my jacksie like Captain Koons in Pulp Fiction.  :-[

Well, it's more reliable than the bank, isn't it?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: lynchbhoy on February 19, 2009, 05:27:16 PM
you would want to buy a savage amount of gold in order to make money as a long term investment .....its a bit like shares.
Unlike shares, gold is guaranteed to go up in value in the future (unless they find el dorado, or a new prev undiscovered gold mountain range or find that mars is made up of mostly gold).
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Lone Shark on February 19, 2009, 05:39:08 PM
Quote from: lynchbhoy on February 19, 2009, 05:27:16 PM
you would want to buy a savage amount of gold in order to make money as a long term investment .....its a bit like shares.
Unlike shares, gold is guaranteed to go up in value in the future (unless they find el dorado, or a new prev undiscovered gold mountain range or find that mars is made up of mostly gold).

Now now Lynchbhoy, don't be doing that. I'm as much of a goldbug as you'll get on this site but nothing is guaranteed. I hope it goes up, but you may recall we created a few problems in this country relatively recently with the idea that certain investments can only go in the one direction, so lets not go down that road again!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: bcarrier on February 19, 2009, 05:41:19 PM
The arguments for buying gold are remarkably like the ones that have been used to promote land and property as an asset class ...ie its is tangible and they arent making any more of it .

Without the gold standard I just dont get it .


Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on February 19, 2009, 05:51:02 PM
Mary Coughlan insists 'Golden Circle'Investors are entitled to their privacy (http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/mhsnsngbcwmh/)

Cowen said in the Dáil yesterday that suggestions that he was protecting the investors 'inpugned his integrity'. In the article above Coughlan says that the investors had the right to client banker confidentiality.

It is most noble that our Government prioritise the rights of the newly broke, especialy given that they will be partially responsible for making the rest of us newly broke as well. Viva la revolution.

Starting by looking for the identity of the 10 is probably the wrong way we should be looking at this. We could get there another way.

This was referred to by Enda Kenny:

irishstatutebook.ie (http://www.irishstatutebook.ie/1963/en/act/pub/0033/sec0060.html)

QuoteSECTION 60 - Giving of financial assistance by a company for the purchase of its shares.

1) Subject to subsections (2), (12) and (13), it shall not be lawful for a company to give, whether directly or indirectly, and whether by means of a loan, guarantee, the provision of security or otherwise, any financial assistance for the purpose of or in connection with a purchase or subscription made or to be made by any person of or for any shares in the company, or, where the company is a subsidiary company, in its holding company.

I am open to correction but AFAIK it is illegal for a company to treat one shareholder more favourably than another. If that is correct that would mean it would be illegal to give a cheap loan with little security (none as it turned out) to the 10 investors if this facility was not offered to all shareholders.
[/size]

We should demand to know who approved this at Anglo and to what level it was authorised.
We as owners of the bank deserve to know whether the Board was aware of and approved this action?
The 10 investors would obviously have to be investigated in the event of the above.

Coughlan's nonsense about banker-client confidentiality is spectacular b*llsh*it. Obviously she was sent out to deliver it as she doesn't understand and actually believed it. She might as well have said murderer-victim confidentiality.  ::)


Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: lynchbhoy on February 19, 2009, 06:04:42 PM
Quote from: Lone Shark on February 19, 2009, 05:39:08 PM
Quote from: lynchbhoy on February 19, 2009, 05:27:16 PM
you would want to buy a savage amount of gold in order to make money as a long term investment .....its a bit like shares.
Unlike shares, gold is guaranteed to go up in value in the future (unless they find el dorado, or a new prev undiscovered gold mountain range or find that mars is made up of mostly gold).

Now now Lynchbhoy, don't be doing that. I'm as much of a goldbug as you'll get on this site but nothing is guaranteed. I hope it goes up, but you may recall we created a few problems in this country relatively recently with the idea that certain investments can only go in the one direction, so lets not go down that road again!
which is why I never bought into the dot.com or shares frenzy, as I never saw the value/market.

However gold is a finite resource and unless there is new discoveries of massive amounts of reserves, this valuable metal , like oil, gas and armaghs ulster championship winning - will all come to an end in the not too distant future.

I cannot see any comparison with the likes of stocks and shares apart from that you can buy and trade them.
At least with Gold you have something that is tangiable and if what I say earlier materialises, it will incread exponentially at some point.
Its being isnt subject to the inept/bad practices , market trends or brown envelopes that have destroyed the companies  that stocks and shares are based on.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on February 19, 2009, 06:26:25 PM
Quote from: lynchbhoy on February 19, 2009, 06:04:42 PM
Quote from: Lone Shark on February 19, 2009, 05:39:08 PM
Quote from: lynchbhoy on February 19, 2009, 05:27:16 PM
you would want to buy a savage amount of gold in order to make money as a long term investment .....its a bit like shares.
Unlike shares, gold is guaranteed to go up in value in the future (unless they find el dorado, or a new prev undiscovered gold mountain range or find that mars is made up of mostly gold).

Now now Lynchbhoy, don't be doing that. I'm as much of a goldbug as you'll get on this site but nothing is guaranteed. I hope it goes up, but you may recall we created a few problems in this country relatively recently with the idea that certain investments can only go in the one direction, so lets not go down that road again!
which is why I never bought into the dot.com or shares frenzy, as I never saw the value/market.

However gold is a finite resource and unless there is new discoveries of massive amounts of reserves, this valuable metal , like oil, gas and armaghs ulster championship winning - will all come to an end in the not too distant future.

I cannot see any comparison with the likes of stocks and shares apart from that you can buy and trade them.
At least with Gold you have something that is tangiable and if what I say earlier materialises, it will incread exponentially at some point.
Its being isnt subject to the inept/bad practices , market trends or brown envelopes that have destroyed the companies  that stocks and shares are based on.


Gold is the new silver which was the new oil which was the new property which was the new dot.com.................

Only two constants. Bread and potable water.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: lynchbhoy on February 19, 2009, 06:29:18 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 19, 2009, 06:26:25 PM
Quote from: lynchbhoy on February 19, 2009, 06:04:42 PM
Quote from: Lone Shark on February 19, 2009, 05:39:08 PM
Quote from: lynchbhoy on February 19, 2009, 05:27:16 PM
you would want to buy a savage amount of gold in order to make money as a long term investment .....its a bit like shares.
Unlike shares, gold is guaranteed to go up in value in the future (unless they find el dorado, or a new prev undiscovered gold mountain range or find that mars is made up of mostly gold).

Now now Lynchbhoy, don't be doing that. I'm as much of a goldbug as you'll get on this site but nothing is guaranteed. I hope it goes up, but you may recall we created a few problems in this country relatively recently with the idea that certain investments can only go in the one direction, so lets not go down that road again!
which is why I never bought into the dot.com or shares frenzy, as I never saw the value/market.

However gold is a finite resource and unless there is new discoveries of massive amounts of reserves, this valuable metal , like oil, gas and armaghs ulster championship winning - will all come to an end in the not too distant future.

I cannot see any comparison with the likes of stocks and shares apart from that you can buy and trade them.
At least with Gold you have something that is tangiable and if what I say earlier materialises, it will incread exponentially at some point.
Its being isnt subject to the inept/bad practices , market trends or brown envelopes that have destroyed the companies  that stocks and shares are based on.


Gold is the new silver which was the new oil which was the new property which was the new dot.com.................

Only two constants. Bread and potable water.
dont know how anyone can compare stocks/shares/dot.com with natural resources that are getting scarecer by the year.
I would think Gold/silver will follow in the same manner as diamonds...unless the diamond market is going o go bust and they will be giving them away soon (which would cost me a whole lot less when buying gifts for the missus)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Rossfan on February 19, 2009, 06:39:53 PM
Quote from: lynchbhoy on February 19, 2009, 06:29:18 PM
. Bread and potable water.
dont know how anyone can compare stocks/shares/dot.com with natural resources that are getting scarecer by the year.I[/quote]

I think you'll find that the amount of water remains constant on the planet all the time.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on February 19, 2009, 06:42:12 PM
Quote from: lynchbhoy on February 19, 2009, 06:29:18 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 19, 2009, 06:26:25 PM
Quote from: lynchbhoy on February 19, 2009, 06:04:42 PM
Quote from: Lone Shark on February 19, 2009, 05:39:08 PM
Quote from: lynchbhoy on February 19, 2009, 05:27:16 PM
you would want to buy a savage amount of gold in order to make money as a long term investment .....its a bit like shares.
Unlike shares, gold is guaranteed to go up in value in the future (unless they find el dorado, or a new prev undiscovered gold mountain range or find that mars is made up of mostly gold).

Now now Lynchbhoy, don't be doing that. I'm as much of a goldbug as you'll get on this site but nothing is guaranteed. I hope it goes up, but you may recall we created a few problems in this country relatively recently with the idea that certain investments can only go in the one direction, so lets not go down that road again!
which is why I never bought into the dot.com or shares frenzy, as I never saw the value/market.

However gold is a finite resource and unless there is new discoveries of massive amounts of reserves, this valuable metal , like oil, gas and armaghs ulster championship winning - will all come to an end in the not too distant future.

I cannot see any comparison with the likes of stocks and shares apart from that you can buy and trade them.
At least with Gold you have something that is tangiable and if what I say earlier materialises, it will incread exponentially at some point.
Its being isnt subject to the inept/bad practices , market trends or brown envelopes that have destroyed the companies  that stocks and shares are based on.


Gold is the new silver which was the new oil which was the new property which was the new dot.com.................

Only two constants. Bread and potable water.
dont know how anyone can compare stocks/shares/dot.com with natural resources that are getting scarecer by the year.
I would think Gold/silver will follow in the same manner as diamonds...unless the diamond market is going o go bust and they will be giving them away soon (which would cost me a whole lot less when buying gifts for the missus)

Yes but can she eat them?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Donagh on February 19, 2009, 08:41:22 PM
Thanks lads. I'm not trying to make money Lynchbhoy, but rather protect what I have in real terms in order to secure my assets for the family. Am probably being paranoid, but a poster on another forum who has been predicting things spot on this past year or so, reckons the yoyo and the great British pound are going to go south very soon. Would rather take a small loss on the gold than see the value of the cash I've worked hard to gather over the past few years be wiped out altogether.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: pintsofguinness on February 19, 2009, 08:43:29 PM
QuoteThanks lads. I'm not trying to make money Lynchbhoy, but rather protect what I have in real terms in order to secure my assets for the family. Am probably being paranoid, but a poster on another forum who has been predicting things spot on this past year or so, reckons the yoyo and the great British pound are going to go south very soon.
I thought you were a socialist?
You should be giving your money to me so we can be on a more equal footing.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: carribbear on February 19, 2009, 08:47:39 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on February 19, 2009, 08:43:29 PM
QuoteThanks lads. I'm not trying to make money Lynchbhoy, but rather protect what I have in real terms in order to secure my assets for the family. Am probably being paranoid, but a poster on another forum who has been predicting things spot on this past year or so, reckons the yoyo and the great British pound are going to go south very soon.
I thought you were a socialist?
You should be giving your money to me so we can be on a more equal footing.

The states are trying to encourage "communities" to volunteer to do work in their areas thus saving the government millions on paying staff.
How long it will be until they start soup kitchens for these workers is unknown but it's a slippery slope. Wait until the irish government try to implement this one....
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Donagh on February 19, 2009, 09:02:35 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on February 19, 2009, 08:43:29 PM
I thought you were a socialist?
You should be giving your money to me so we can be on a more equal footing.

A commonly misunderstood notion of the socialist concept pints. Rather than me sharing my meager resources with you and you passing over some of your hard earned capital to me it would be better if we both nailed Seany Fitz for a few hundred grand each. But as that is not going to happen this side of the revolution, just like Caitriona Ruane sending her kids to grammar school, I'm afraid I'm forced to work with the existing system for the good of my wee family until something better comes along.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on February 19, 2009, 09:08:25 PM
Quote from: Donagh on February 19, 2009, 09:02:35 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on February 19, 2009, 08:43:29 PM
I thought you were a socialist?
You should be giving your money to me so we can be on a more equal footing.

A commonly misunderstood notion of the socialist concept pints. Rather than me sharing my meager resources with you and you passing over some of your hard earned capital to me it would be better if we both nailed Seany Fitz for a few hundred grand each. But as that is not going to happen this side of the revolution, just like Caitriona Ruane sending her kids to grammar school, I'm afraid I'm forced to work with the existing system for the good of my wee family until something better comes along.

I've seen those predictions and I agree the poster has been good. But I've seen another, who has been on the ball, predict massive food shortages in the States and UK before the end of the year.

We are now entering a doom and gloom bubble that will hopefully burst like the rest of them.
Title: The big bailout
Post by: the Deel Rover on February 19, 2009, 09:14:18 PM
Whats the name of the forum lads and does it have a bar
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Rossfan on February 19, 2009, 09:58:25 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 19, 2009, 09:08:25 PM
. But I've seen another, who has been on the ball, predict massive food shortages in the States and UK before the end of the year.


Would it be a good time to buy an oul acre or two??
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on February 19, 2009, 10:02:20 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on February 19, 2009, 09:58:25 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 19, 2009, 09:08:25 PM
. But I've seen another, who has been on the ball, predict massive food shortages in the States and UK before the end of the year.


Would it be a good time to buy an oul acre or two??

To late, I've a shed full of tinned baked beans. I expect to sell them for trillions of euros next year.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: pintsofguinness on February 19, 2009, 10:06:51 PM
I said on this thread months ago that I wanted someone to tell me when to start stocking food and they didnt.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: stephenite on February 19, 2009, 10:07:53 PM
I'll swop you a tin of beans for 4 sausages
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: pintsofguinness on February 19, 2009, 10:11:21 PM
No, I'll be hoarding the sausages.

Stealing a pig if I have to, all the lights will be switched off so it'll be easy - after I get the bacon and sausages of it I'll swap you the rest for a tin of beans. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on February 19, 2009, 10:14:03 PM
Quote from: stephenite on February 19, 2009, 10:07:53 PM
I'll swop you a tin of beans for 4 sausages

Galtee skinless?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: stephenite on February 19, 2009, 10:15:30 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 19, 2009, 10:14:03 PM
Quote from: stephenite on February 19, 2009, 10:07:53 PM
I'll swop you a tin of beans for 4 sausages

Galtee skinless?

Denny Gold medal actually - are the beans Heinz or Batchelors? This bartering is going to take off again
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: pintsofguinness on February 19, 2009, 10:17:14 PM
I thought you were the one with the Beans. 

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on February 19, 2009, 10:17:27 PM
Quote from: stephenite on February 19, 2009, 10:15:30 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 19, 2009, 10:14:03 PM
Quote from: stephenite on February 19, 2009, 10:07:53 PM
I'll swop you a tin of beans for 4 sausages

Galtee skinless?

Denny Gold medal actually - are the beans Heinz or Batchelors? This bartering is going to take off again

Bachelors. I'll give you 10 trillion for 30% of your business (after the hyperinflation).
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: stephenite on February 19, 2009, 10:20:00 PM
Bacehlors, pfff. Any non-peasants with beans open for trade?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on February 19, 2009, 10:26:07 PM
Quote from: stephenite on February 19, 2009, 10:20:00 PM
Bacehlors, pfff. Any non-peasants with beans open for trade?

You don't have a business, I'm out.

(sorry watching the first ever Irish Dragons Den)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Main Street on February 20, 2009, 01:26:08 AM
Quote from: lynchbhoy on February 19, 2009, 06:04:42 PM
However gold is a finite resource and unless there is new discoveries of massive amounts of reserves, this valuable metal , like oil, gas and armaghs ulster championship winning - will all come to an end in the not too distant future.

I cannot see any comparison with the likes of stocks and shares apart from that you can buy and trade them.
At least with Gold you have something that is tangiable and if what I say earlier materialises, it will incread exponentially at some point.
Its being isnt subject to the inept/bad practices , market trends or brown envelopes that have destroyed the companies  that stocks and shares are based on.


In the last 4 weeks, gold has risen by 25% in USD values
I got a decent bit a couple of months ago at USD 795 pr oz and now its over a USD 1000

But it is more the USD dollar that is losing value than the gold price is going up.
But if your earnings are in USD then it makes a lot of sense.
The online purchase of your gold is the way to go. It is kept in Vaults  around the world and you can chose which one.
I chose Switzerland, for no other reason than no body last century seemed to want to bomb Switzerland to bits.
I wonder why ::)
You can sell bits of your gold on line or buy more bits and just pay a tiny commission each time.

Currency are going to lose value. The GBP will continue to lose as UK Gov borrows/prints more and more .
The USD is set to lose value as the Fed gets ready to print a trillion or two.

Gold will increase in value because it is durable, has a finite supply and price will follow demand. Plus the demand will increase when more punters like Donagh want something safer and more durable than a few bricks and a roof.
When I wrote gold will increase in value 5 times, that would be the worst case scenario for the  world economy, that pretty much means a financial mess mixed in with serious social unrest / riots  plus wars breaking out.

And that would just be the North ::)  (when the subvention river dries up to a trickle)




Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on February 20, 2009, 01:54:58 AM
Quote from: muppet on February 19, 2009, 06:26:25 PM
Quote from: lynchbhoy on February 19, 2009, 06:04:42 PM
Quote from: Lone Shark on February 19, 2009, 05:39:08 PM
Quote from: lynchbhoy on February 19, 2009, 05:27:16 PM
you would want to buy a savage amount of gold in order to make money as a long term investment .....its a bit like shares.
Unlike shares, gold is guaranteed to go up in value in the future (unless they find el dorado, or a new prev undiscovered gold mountain range or find that mars is made up of mostly gold).

Now now Lynchbhoy, don't be doing that. I'm as much of a goldbug as you'll get on this site but nothing is guaranteed. I hope it goes up, but you may recall we created a few problems in this country relatively recently with the idea that certain investments can only go in the one direction, so lets not go down that road again!
which is why I never bought into the dot.com or shares frenzy, as I never saw the value/market.

However gold is a finite resource and unless there is new discoveries of massive amounts of reserves, this valuable metal , like oil, gas and armaghs ulster championship winning - will all come to an end in the not too distant future.

I cannot see any comparison with the likes of stocks and shares apart from that you can buy and trade them.
At least with Gold you have something that is tangiable and if what I say earlier materialises, it will incread exponentially at some point.
Its being isnt subject to the inept/bad practices , market trends or brown envelopes that have destroyed the companies  that stocks and shares are based on.


Gold is the new silver which was the new oil which was the new property which was the new dot.com.................

Only two constants. Bread and potable water.
Ye can all keep on way yer gold and beans and whatnot, I've the garage full of salt!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: bcarrier on February 20, 2009, 09:22:20 AM
I like muppets description of this as the doom and gloom bubble.

If we have the complete financial meltdown that some predict (the end of paper money etc ) there will be war. Tinned beans will be useless because the people with guns will steal your tinned beans.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Zapatista on February 20, 2009, 09:24:32 AM
A view on gold smuggleing.

"Instead of acting as the country's economic engine, the plentiful deposits—including uranium, diamonds, and copper—have repeatedly fuelled violent conflict and corruption. Local militia and foreign armies smuggle vast amounts out of the country—an estimated $400 million in diamonds and gold alone have been lost this way annually in recent years—while doing everything within their power to prevent a weak state from establishing its authority.
Unless the DRC can create a strong government to protect its major mineral sites, it will remain hostage to the armed groups that continue to plunder its resources. It has to become sovereign and protect its territory integrity so that its people may finally benefit from what belongs to them.

The Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC, has been described as the worst place in the world to be a girl or woman. Women young and old, even babies, are raped by militiamen, soldiers, policemen and civilians every day. There are hundreds of thousands of victims, though exact numbers are unclear as most women don't ever report an assault. The near defunct judicial system means there's little point.
"

Where is the gold we are buying coming from?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: IolarCoisCuain on February 20, 2009, 10:42:45 AM
Fine Gael have shot themselves in the foot again.

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/fine-gael-deputy-on-e110000-cant-take-wage-cut-1646893.html

100 jobs went in Bulmer's, not too far from Phil's own patch, during the week. Betcha those bucks would have taken a pay cut rather than be put out on their ears.

This whole country is about exceptions to rules. Fine Gael can't present itself as the party of probity on one hand and then start hewing out exceptions for their own golden circles. Deeply disappointing.




Independent.ie
Fine Gael deputy on e110,000 'can't take wage cut'
By ine Kerr Political Correspondent
Friday February 20 2009

FINE Gael frontbencher Phil Hogan yesterday refused to elaborate on the "personal circumstances" preventing him following his party leader in taking a voluntary pay cut from his €110,000 salary.

His party is currently calling for wage cuts on those earning over €100,000 in the public sector.

Leader Enda Kenny took a voluntary pay cut of 5pc since last October.

But Mr Hogan yesterday said he would not be following his own party's example.

"No. My personal circumstances don't allow that at the moment," Mr Hogan said.

The Carlow-Kilkenny TD last night insisted there was no contradiction between the party's official policy on wage cuts and his own refusal to take a voluntary pay cut.

Voluntary

The Fine Gael frontbench spokesman, who is one of 39 Fine Gael TDs who decided against following the lead of party leader Enda Kenny in taking a 5pc pay cut, stressed that the salary reduction had been a voluntary option.

"My personal financial circumstances don't allow me to take a voluntary pay cut. I'm taking the 10.6pc pension levy and 2pc income levy and the 10pc cut in expenses like everybody else," Mr Hogan said.

"It was a voluntary decision by members and I'm not in a position to do so voluntarily at the moment."

Asked if Fine Gael was failing to practise what they preach, Mr Hogan insisted that: "Members of the Oireachtas and members of the Fine Gael parliamentary party will adhere to the law and adhere to Government policy the same as everybody else in the public service."

Under the pension levy, TDs stand to lose out on nearly €10,000 a year, while ministers will lose out on upwards of €20,000. TDs will also be liable for a 2pc income levy, and face losing out on thousands under the proposals of the Houses of the Oireachtas Commission to reduce expenses by 10pc.

Only a dozen Fine Gael TDs are thought to have followed the lead of Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny in taking a 5pc cut in his salary of €106,581.

Among the Fine Gael TDs and senators who are believed to have volunteered a pay cut or made donations to charity are Simon Coveney, Frances Fitzgerald, Eugene Regan, Richard Bruton, Kieran O'Donnell, Michael Darcy, Deirdre Clune, Paul Connaughton and Frank Feighan.

Last night, a spokesman for Fine Gael said the pay cut was at the discretion of each member of the party.

Following Wednesday night's announcement of a 10pc cut in TDs' expenses and the abolition of the special secretarial allowance for ministers, some backbenchers complained that they were not consulted and had to learn of the measures on the news. Some also queried why the Houses of the Oireachtas had not reviewed their own fees when conducting the expenses review.

- ine Kerr Political Correspondent

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Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on February 20, 2009, 10:56:22 AM
you know the really sad thing about Phil not taking a cut of 5% from his 110K, it would cost the idiot about 2.8k or roughly €50 a week - now, if he he's so highly leveraged that he can't afford that he's in big, big trouble!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on February 20, 2009, 10:57:43 AM
Quote from: bcarrier on February 20, 2009, 09:22:20 AM
I like muppets description of this as the doom and gloom bubble.

If we have the complete financial meltdown that some predict (the end of paper money etc ) there will be war. Tinned beans will be useless because the people with guns will steal your tinned beans.
They haven't gone away you know (why do you think Donagh reckons his gold bullion would be safe enough) :D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: lynchbhoy on February 20, 2009, 11:03:15 AM
have to say i am severly tempted to be the Irish BA Baracus or Puff Lynchy
and buy up as much gold as I can get my grubby mitts on.


rossfan- yer a fool , I meant finite natural resources like gold and silver , not fecking water  !  :D

muppet - I also like that - will start predicting and keep on predicting the doom bubble to burst soon, and keep going untilit 'does' then go around telling every newpaper and on prime time ' I told you so'  :D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Hound on February 20, 2009, 11:07:16 AM
Quote from: IolarCoisCuain on February 20, 2009, 10:42:45 AM
100 jobs went in Bulmer's, not too far from Phil's own patch, during the week. Betcha those bucks would have taken a pay cut rather than be put out on their ears.

120 in Bulmers.
70 in Kerry Group.

There's a group of people who'd love to have a small pension levy to pay.

All the unions are doing is adding to unrest. The public service are getting a great deal.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: johnneycool on February 20, 2009, 11:10:10 AM
fuckin hell, I've just read through some of the posts and if half it's true about the golden circle ( or golden shower of c***ts) and how brazen yer man Fitzpatrick was you'd have thought they were invincible, no wait, they are aren't they as no white collar thieving f**ker ever goes to jail, they just ride off to their tax haven and we still think they're great irishmen.

Mugabe should call over to Dublin to get lessons in corruption.


The Celtic tiger is well and truely on its arse. No wonder some German finance minister said Irelands policies were 'wild west stuff'.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Gnevin on February 20, 2009, 11:14:24 AM
See the builders unions are  up in the LRC looking for a 3.5% pay increase. Are these lads for real?



CIF to request 10% pay cut
listen Friday, 20 February 2009 10:29

The Construction Industry Federation is to ask the Labour Court to sanction a 10% pay cut and an extended pay freeze for 190,000 construction workers.

Construction employers say the industry has lost 100,000 jobs since early 2007, and that 55,000 more jobs could be lost within the next five months if labour costs are not reviewed.

Wage rates in the construction sector are set by a legal mechanism called a Registered Employment Agreement.
Advertisement

However, the CIF will tell the Labour Court that employers can no longer afford REA pay levels.

For their part, construction unions will ask the Labour Court to sanction full payment of the 3.5% increase now due under the National Wage Agreement.

Unions say that while the sector does have difficulties, the current downturn will only curb excessive profit-taking.

They point out that the National Employment Rights Authority found that 62% of construction employers inspected last year had breached employment laws.

They are counterclaiming for full payment of the 3.5% wage increase now due for the 190,000 workers still employed in construction.

However, the CIF says that with zero inflation and a recession, pay increases cannot be justified, especially since both the Government and IBEC have rejected the terms of that agreement since it was negotiated in September.

SIPTU has called on construction workers to take part in a demonstration to be held in Dublin tomorrow in support of the Irish Congress of Trade Union's ten-point national recovery plan.


http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0220/construction.html
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Hound on February 20, 2009, 12:07:50 PM
Well I suppose after (among others) the politicians, and the bankers, and the regulators, the unions obviously want to follow suit and also be a national disgrace.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: ludermor on February 20, 2009, 12:08:25 PM
The builders union are a joke, one of the most militant (BATU) have been fighting amoung themselves for the past year suing each other.
The minuimum wage for a grade d general operative is 14.88/hour, in reality most labourers are on at least a grade c rate of 16.37/hour. I have no real issue with a trademans minimum rate of 18.60/hr but it is a joke to have unqualified unskilled people getting 16.37/hr
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: orangeman on February 20, 2009, 01:14:50 PM
Money markets are not yet back to normal, the head of the European Central Bank Jean-Claude Trichet told the European American Press Club in Paris today, saying that risk aversion remained high.

Mr Trichet also said that the European Commission had been right to begin moves on Wednesday against France, Greece, Ireland, Latvia, Malta and Spain for running excessive public deficits.


The ECB head has warned for years that countries in the euro zone must respect rules and principles requiring them to move their public accounts into surplus in times of growth.


AdvertisementHe has said recently that during the current economic crisis, the EU limit that public deficits should not exceed 3% of output should be respected, while noting that some flexibility is permitted.

Mr Trichet also said it was a mistake to say the euro region had any weak links, and rejected concern about Ireland's position. 'Ireland is not the weak link of the euro area and there is no weak link of the euro area,' he said. 'I consider that speaking of any particular country as a weak link in the euro area is an error of judgment.'
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on February 20, 2009, 02:10:34 PM
Quote from: Hound on February 20, 2009, 11:07:16 AM
All the unions are doing is adding to unrest. The public service are getting a great deal.

QuoteCongress has also published a 10 point plan for national recovery - There is a Better, Fairer Way - which sets out the key elements of the campaign platform. The plan outlines 10 key initiatives to address the current crisis, including:

Protecting Jobs and Tackling Unemployment
The Banking Crisis and the Public Interest
Competitiveness
The Pay Agreement
Fairness & Taxation
Restoring Consumer Confidence
The Public Sector Pension 'Levy'
The Private Sector Pension Crisis
Employment Rights
National Recovery Bond
Further information on the February 21 National Demonstration will be posted here as it becomes available.
Further details here: http://www.ictu.ie/download/doc/there_is_a_better_fairer_way.doc

I had a cursory look and it's a laughable document short on detail, the biggest issue I have is that they seem to think we can devalue our currency (never mind that as Muppet et al say it seems to be doing a good job on its own).  How do they propose we do that??

The above is the unions 'path to recovery',
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on February 20, 2009, 02:19:34 PM
Jaysus I dunno Bogball - At least it's a start - a discussion document if you like but the areas they talk about that need to be addressed are spot on I'd have thought. whatever about the mechanics of tackling those specific areas. Didn't see where they said that we should devalue the currency though.
What's more laughable is the inertia in the government and the cronyism
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: lynchbhoy on February 20, 2009, 02:31:20 PM
Quote from: Declan on February 20, 2009, 02:19:34 PM
Jaysus I dunno Bogball - At least it's a start - a discussion document if you like but the areas they talk about that need to be addressed are spot on I'd have thought. whatever about the mechanics of tackling those specific areas. Didn't see where they said that we should devalue the currency though.
What's more laughable is the inertia in the government and the cronyism
following on from Boggy and Dec's posts I think its been fairly obv for the past number of years that the problem is that we dont have proper in depth prodecures, policies and then the resultant action required to implement such revisions.

The civil service staffing, its policies, the over abundance of bureaucrats - think of the health sector, the money is being wasted on pen pushers in middle/senior mgt while wards and hospitals are closed/closing due to lack of funding and other hospitals cannot take on the physiotherapists etc they require , meanwhile our surplus of physios who cant get work are having to leave the country.

Another example of lack of proper legal procedure or financial policy is the fitzpatrick fella. Loaned himself near 100 million, but this is 'not against the law' - merely because we dont have legislation covering it.
FFS.
I am sure I and many more of you can think up a lot more examples.

The precedent is still with us and we have gov/opposition and civil /public service all sitting on their hands hoping the country doesnt go down the toilet, as they are all creatively bankrupt to combat this and therefore cannot think of solutions.
the often mentioned 'building schools, roads, infrastructure' projects that are being begged for around the country could throw a lifeline throughout Ireland. Could keep local economy flowing until we sail into calmer waters.
Other measures that need to be looked at are the postponment of aid/money to other countries - sad to say but we have committed a small fortune to foreign aid with not many other countries following suit, and we need to take a 'funding holiday ' until we can afford it.
Likewise the haemorraging of dole monies to the social welfare tourists need to be addresses.
Companies taking on under-qualified cheap labour is still a problem here (thats unqualified/underskilled Irish and non national cheap labour).

It all stems back to the same thing, we need a dail ( and I dont just mean the gov) that can stop being the 'rabbit in the headlights' and think of ideas, start to roll up their sleeves and take into the hard, laborious difficult tasks of creating proper legislation/policies/procedures, taking the hard decisions, telling the unions and sundry to fcuk off and carry on with the task of righting the country.

I dont think anyone has the stomach for this inthe dail though. Its a tough one.  But it HAS to be done some time, and the sooner we do, the more chance we get out of this mess with money making abilities intact.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on February 20, 2009, 02:35:07 PM
The devaluation is a headline point in their newspaper advert today to promote tomorrow's march.  

It states:
QuoteGovernment and Employers are engaged in a Campaign to Drive Down Wages, as an alternative to currency devaluation

I just think it's exactly the type of useless rhetoric that is normally thrown out by politicians etc who don't fully appreciate the scale of the problem and are more interested in securing kudos from their voters/members etc.  

You have a point re the govt and their inertia, bt sure every time they try something you've some protest group or another up in arms, from the ludicrous decision to row back on the medical cards for over 70's to the protests over the levy etc etc etc.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: orangeman on February 20, 2009, 02:46:18 PM
Businessman Ulick McEvaddy has described the ten members of the so-called Golden Circle as heroes.

He insisted the ten individuals 'hadn't done anything wrong' and had no reason to conceal their identities.

Speaking to RTÉ News, Mr McEvaddy said he would have joined the group had he been approached as it was the right thing to do.

He dismissed the controversy surrounding the incident as 'misplaced uproar' and said Anglo Irish was an 'iconic' bank, which helped stimulate the Irish economy and create the Celtic Tiger.

Listen to Ulick McEvaddy & Joe Higgins on Today with Pat Kenny

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Zapatista on February 20, 2009, 02:49:18 PM
Quote from: orangeman on February 20, 2009, 02:46:18 PM
Businessman Ulick McEvaddy has described the ten members of the so-called Golden Circle as heroes.

He insisted the ten individuals 'hadn't done anything wrong' and had no reason to conceal their identities.

Speaking to RTÉ News, Mr McEvaddy said he would have joined the group had he been approached as it was the right thing to do.

He dismissed the controversy surrounding the incident as 'misplaced uproar' and said Anglo Irish was an 'iconic' bank, which helped stimulate the Irish economy and create the Celtic Tiger.

Listen to Ulick McEvaddy & Joe Higgins on Today with Pat Kenny



What did Higgans say?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Hardy on February 20, 2009, 03:32:21 PM
I think I'll go into the prediction business myself like yer man McWilliams. I was saying in the pub last night it was only a matter of time before the PR backlash started and the antics in Anglo were presented as a patriotic act to save an Irish institution from foreign speculators who were shortiing the stock and trying to ruin it. When I heard Ulick this morning I was sorry I hadn't put a few bob on it.

It was an interesting insight into the thinking of the white-collar highwayman, though. It didn't seem to matter to him that share price manipulation is criminal activity and as far as he was concerned the media "hysteria" following the revelations about Fitzpatrick hiding his personal loans only proves that he was right to do so. No matter that this act was a deliberate deception of shareholders and potential investors and has resulted in the country having to pay exorbitant interest rates because our bank executives are now outed as a bunch of cowboys whose annual reports and balance sheets are works of fiction.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on February 20, 2009, 03:38:23 PM
QuoteI think I'll go into the prediction business myself like yer man McWilliams.

Met him in the airport on Monday morning heading to London - jokingly asked him had he his pike ready for the revolution. Got a smile
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: orangeman on February 20, 2009, 03:43:43 PM
Quote from: Hardy on February 20, 2009, 03:32:21 PM
I think I'll go into the prediction business myself like yer man McWilliams. I was saying in the pub last night it was only a matter of time before the PR backlash started and the antics in Anglo were presented as a patriotic act to save an Irish institution from foreign speculators who were shortiing the stock and trying to ruin it. When I heard Ulick this morning I was sorry I hadn't put a few bob on it.

It was an interesting insight into the thinking of the white-collar highwayman, though. It didn't seem to matter to him that share price manipulation is criminal activity and as far as he was concerned the media "hysteria" following the revelations about Fitzpatrick hiding his personal loans only proves that he was right to do so. No matter that this act was a deliberate deception of shareholders and potential investors and has resulted in the country having to pay exorbitant interest rates because our bank executives are now outed as a bunch of cowboys whose annual reports and balance sheets are works of fiction.


Can you beleive the cheek of them ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: orangeman on February 20, 2009, 03:47:15 PM
The number of new private cars licensed in January slumped 66.6% compared to the same time last year.

The latest figures from the Central Statistics Office shows that a total of 10,997 new cars were sold last month. This compares to a total of 32,961 in January 2008.







Eveything is going down the pan ! Was in a dealership yesterday talking to friend of mine and he was saying that 80% of their business is to the Republic of Ireland. He was in great form - sales are flying.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: armaghniac on February 20, 2009, 05:12:38 PM
This buying cars in the North is partly a temporary thing, especially for new cars, reflecting that Sterling had dived. When the car manufacturers people equalise their prices this will even out. While most of the economic fallout in Ireland is the our own fault having two currencies on the Island is a major destabilising factor and not one faced in Portugal etc.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: lynchbhoy on February 20, 2009, 05:36:18 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on February 20, 2009, 05:12:38 PM
This buying cars in the North is partly a temporary thing, especially for new cars, reflecting that Sterling had dived. When the car manufacturers people equalise their prices this will even out. While most of the economic fallout in Ireland is the our own fault having two currencies on the Island is a major destabilising factor and not one faced in Portugal etc.
even with sterling rate going back, there is a massive VRT tax on cars coming into the south , which always makes buying in england or abroad more favourable to southern Irish purchasers !
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Donagh on February 20, 2009, 05:51:46 PM
Just heard some oul wan on the radio say we should be proud we were in a position to pay a banker 2 million a year and going on about them getting stick in their local pubs.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Gnevin on February 20, 2009, 05:57:28 PM
Quote from: Declan on February 20, 2009, 02:19:34 PM
Jaysus I dunno Bogball - At least it's a start - a discussion document if you like but the areas they talk about that need to be addressed are spot on I'd have thought. whatever about the mechanics of tackling those specific areas. Didn't see where they said that we should devalue the currency though.
What's more laughable is the inertia in the government and the cronyism

The unions has weeks of discussions and couldn't come up with anything, not even a "fairer" levy.  Now they are demanding talks again , a total farce
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: armaghniac on February 20, 2009, 06:13:59 PM
Quotethere is a massive VRT tax on cars coming into the south , which always makes buying in england or abroad more favourable to southern Irish purchasers !

Of course the car is cheaper but whether it is worth it when the VRT has been added is very much related to exchange rates and to relative depreciation for used cars.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on February 20, 2009, 06:42:33 PM
I hate to keep adding to the air of doom but the news is not good.

I have no doubt now that the Government are not telling us a shred of truth about the long night in September for fear of the backlash.

They have a reason for that though. It is only a tiny problem in comparison to what the real problem is.

Regardless of what caused the problem any solution with a chance of working involves getting people who now pay no tax to pay some and to get people who pay little tax to pay more. This is politically very difficult as every worker sees their current taxes as too punitive even if they are actually outside the tax net. Also everyone wants those who earn more than them to pay more, ignoring the fact that they already do.

The Government can raise taxes on the very highly paid but it wont be nearly enough because there are too few of them..

At the moment the highest paid 6.5% workers pay 50% of all income tax. Roughly speaking, increasing the top level from 42% to a draconian 84% (for that 6.5%) would increase total tax revenue by only 50%, assuming none of them fled the country which they inevitably would.

At the moment 34% of workers pay no taxes.

The reality is that the government will have to raise taxes from close to 100% of all workers regardless of what the unions think. That is the financial reality and it is not to save the banks, it is to save the country. It is that bad.

If the Government fail, the IMF/Eurozone (it is crystal clear from commentary on Germany that this has already been discussed at a very high level) will come in and fillet the public sector. They will close dozens of hospitals and possibly hundreds of schools. I have great sympathy for those in the public sector because they are a soft target and it is not their fault the Government have been lax in dealing with the problem. But they need to swallow the mere innoculation that is the levy, as every crystal ball is predicting if they don't, the disease will savage them altogether.

The private sector will be hit when taxes go up. Firstly the Government will introduce a 'mini-budget' in the next couple of months raising taxes.

We all better hope that the levy and the taxes are sufficient.

The witchhunt is on in earnest now and it has a function. A bit of bloodletting is needed to ease the pressure and the higher the profile the better. But it is only a sideshow. They aren't even hinting how bad the real problem is.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: armaghniac on February 20, 2009, 07:11:18 PM
Some good points, Muppet.

QuoteAt the moment 34% of workers pay no taxes.

it was irresponsible of Lenihan to say that there would not be a mini budget, the sooner this is done the better.

They should cut the allowances by 10% and the min wage likewise. People whose pay has fallen wouldn't be affected much but people doing OK would be brought into the tax net. Tax children's allowances at the marginal rate, once again this wouldn't affect poor folks. Several pence on the pint is needed too despite the whining that will follow.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Gnevin on February 20, 2009, 07:13:51 PM
Question for you all in the know.

If civil servants go out on a 1 day strike do they get the days pay stopped?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Lar Naparka on February 20, 2009, 07:18:01 PM
Quote from: Gnevin on February 20, 2009, 07:13:51 PM
Question for you all in the know.

If civil servants go out on a 1 day strike do they get the days pay stopped?

Yes.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on February 20, 2009, 07:19:19 PM
Quote from: Gnevin on February 20, 2009, 07:13:51 PM
Question for you all in the know.

If civil servants go out on a 1 day strike do they get the days pay stopped?

Only those due to work.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on February 20, 2009, 09:54:07 PM
QuoteThe unions has weeks of discussions and couldn't come up with anything, not even a "fairer" levy.  Now they are demanding talks again , a total farce

Were you involved in the discussions Gnevin? Any of the commentary I've heard has said that "agreement" was possible but the Tuesday afternoon deadline imposed by the govt scuppered whatever chance there was. I'm not in a union and am employed in the private sector but will be marching tomorrow because I think that unless we take to the streets and force a fundamental change in our society I might as well pack my bags and family and shag off to God knows wherever. There is something deeply and fundamentally unjust in how the idiots in the government and their backers have landed us in this mess and I think this is a watershed for our country.   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on February 20, 2009, 10:08:17 PM
excellent post muppet
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Rossfan on February 20, 2009, 10:14:17 PM
Quote from: Declan on February 20, 2009, 09:54:07 PM
[I think that unless we take to the streets and force a fundamental change in our society I might as well pack my bags and family and shag off to God knows wherever. There is something deeply and fundamentally unjust in how the idiots in the government and their backers have landed us in this mess  
We should follow the French example. Their government would never try to treat them the way we've allowed ourselves to be treated.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on February 20, 2009, 10:16:18 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on February 20, 2009, 10:14:17 PM
Quote from: Declan on February 20, 2009, 09:54:07 PM
[I think that unless we take to the streets and force a fundamental change in our society I might as well pack my bags and family and shag off to God knows wherever. There is something deeply and fundamentally unjust in how the idiots in the government and their backers have landed us in this mess  
We should follow the French example. Their government would never try to treat them the way we've allowed ourselves to be treated.
Seriously, we're way beyond protesting, we all have to be prepared to take whatever pain is dished out in order to get through this, the blame game is pointless and over imo.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on February 20, 2009, 10:23:33 PM
I'm not interested in the blame game BB -  I know who is to blame but I genuinely feel that unless people show that it needs a fundamental change then nothing will happen and we'll stumble on with more of the same. More than happy to "suffer" in terms of loss of income /higher taxes etc but just don't feel that the current set up will deliver anything at all except more bullshit and cliched responses. I re read the 1916 proclamation of Independence today and wondered what exactly happened to the dream of a real republic expressed here : The Irish Republic guarantees religious and civil liberty, equal rights and equal opportunities to all its citizens, and declares its resolve to pursue the happiness and prosperity of the whole nation and all of its parts, cherishing all the children of the nation equally,

That's the country I want to live in and feel that tomorrow is the first step in reclaiming that
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on February 20, 2009, 10:44:48 PM
Quote from: Declan on February 20, 2009, 10:23:33 PM
I'm not interested in the blame game BB -  I know who is to blame but I genuinely feel that unless people show that it needs a fundamental change then nothing will happen and we'll stumble on with more of the same. More than happy to "suffer" in terms of loss of income /higher taxes etc but just don't feel that the current set up will deliver anything at all except more bullshit and cliched responses. I re read the 1916 proclamation of Independence today and wondered what exactly happened to the dream of a real republic expressed here : The Irish Republic guarantees religious and civil liberty, equal rights and equal opportunities to all its citizens, and declares its resolve to pursue the happiness and prosperity of the whole nation and all of its parts, cherishing all the children of the nation equally,

That's the country I want to live in and feel that tomorrow is the first step in reclaiming that

Declan I agree with you. But tomorrow's march is about the levy.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on February 20, 2009, 10:47:01 PM
Quote from: Declan on February 20, 2009, 10:23:33 PM
I'm not interested in the blame game BB -  I know who is to blame but I genuinely feel that unless people show that it needs a fundamental change then nothing will happen and we'll stumble on with more of the same. More than happy to "suffer" in terms of loss of income /higher taxes etc but just don't feel that the current set up will deliver anything at all except more bullshit and cliched responses. I re read the 1916 proclamation of Independence today and wondered what exactly happened to the dream of a real republic expressed here : The Irish Republic guarantees religious and civil liberty, equal rights and equal opportunities to all its citizens, and declares its resolve to pursue the happiness and prosperity of the whole nation and all of its parts, cherishing all the children of the nation equally,

That's the country I want to live in and feel that tomorrow is the first step in reclaiming that
You're spot on Declan, but with total politcal upheaval that's not going to happen - imo we had the opportunity 90 odd years ago, but the ancestors of the guys who took power became corrupted on the way though, yet, the populace were happy to vote for them anyway because of the party and the name they represented.  Being a nordie I'm relatively new to politics down here, but it's a pathetic attempt at democracy imo and isn't (I don't think) repeated (as badly) in the western world.  Btw, Canada sounds good, might look into it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on February 20, 2009, 10:49:46 PM
QuoteBut tomorrow's march is about the levy.

Initially I think that was the intention and for some it maybe still is muppet but for me its more than that and at the moment I feel that I have to do something so in I'll go

Quotebut with total political upheaval that's not going to happen

Jaysus I dunno BB it needs something
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: armaghniac on February 20, 2009, 11:26:15 PM
Tomorrow march contains some opposed to the levy, but others who agree with the need for the levy but who want it fine tuned and other measures put in place.

Anyhow the PWC report on Anglo seems not to have uncovered any other horrors, if this is accurate and reflected in other banks then the situation is merely serious, not terminal.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Rossfan on February 21, 2009, 01:31:16 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on February 20, 2009, 11:26:15 PM
.

Anyhow the PWC report on Anglo seems not to have uncovered any other horrors, if this is accurate

Wasnt the bejasus censored out of it before it was let out into the public arena..
€7bn of a debt which wont be recovered to be borne by the taxpayers .i.e the little people who gained nothing from all the FF tolerated ( if not actively encouraged) shenanigans by irresponsible well heeled "patriots".
If we wont be like the French then all we can hope for is for Germany to take over running the Government's Finances and our Banks for the next 20 years. 
By the way why should I "share the pain" caused by those fcukin' cnuts like Fitzpatrick  and the rest of the "Golden Circle" aided and abetted by McCreevy,Harney,Ahern and all the rest of the crooked swine.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Hardy on February 21, 2009, 01:43:07 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on February 20, 2009, 11:26:15 PM
Tomorrow march contains some opposed to the levy, but others who agree with the need for the levy but who want it fine tuned and other measures put in place.

Isn't that the problem with the march? It's just a "down with this trype of thing" affair. No two participants you ask are marching for the same reason.

Quote from: Rossfan on February 21, 2009, 01:31:16 PM
By the way why should I "share the pain" caused by those fcukin' cnuts like Fitzpatrick  and the rest of the "Golden Circle" aided and abetted by McCreevy,Harney,Ahern and all the rest of the crooked swine.

Because, while these b**tards have (or were given) the wherewithal to bankrupt the country, they do not have the wherewithal to save it. If you took all their money off them - which I'd be fully in favour of, together with locking them up for a long spell - it wouldn't make a ripple in the ocean of debt they've caused. It wouldn't even pay the extra interest occasioned by the increased rates their spivvery and chancerism has caused us to have to pay. Ironically, only we, the little people they despise, collectively have the wherewithal to undo what they've done. And every penny we contribute will be a real penny, not a CFD, make-believe, funny-money penny like the ones they made on the way up.

Once again it's capitalism, free enterprise and "what's mine is mine" when they're gaining and nationalisation and shared pain when they're losing.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: pintsofguinness on February 21, 2009, 01:46:24 PM
QuoteBecause, while these b**tards have (or were given)  the wherewithal to bankrupt the country, they do not have the wherewithal to save it. If you took all their money off them - which I'd be fully in favour of , together with locking them up for a long spell - it wouldn't make a ripple in the ocean of debt they've caused.
It would make us feel better though. 


HOw exactly does the country become bankrupt? Defaults on the loans they've taken from this mysterious world bank in the sky every country seems to be borrowering from?
And what will happen if it does?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Hardy on February 21, 2009, 01:54:20 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on February 21, 2009, 01:46:24 PM

HOw exactly does the country become bankrupt?


Because of the economy going down the tubes because we squandered the economic boom of the last ten years. Instead of positioning ourselves to be ready for the inevitable downturn, we inflated a property bubble, building houses for people coming here to build houses, grant-aiding the building of hotels that are now empty and so on. Now, as tens of thousands join the dole queues and the tax take shrivels, we can't finance the  running of the country and have to pauperise oourselves with foreign debt at punitive interest rates because international lenders reckon we're a bunch of cowboys.

Something like that anyway.

QuoteAnd what will happen if it does?

Ask ten experts and you'll get ten different answers. I'd say the most likely scenario is the fulfilment of Hitler's dream, with the Gremans running Europe at last, but without the concentration camps. I hope.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on February 21, 2009, 01:57:15 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on February 21, 2009, 01:31:16 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on February 20, 2009, 11:26:15 PM
.

Anyhow the PWC report on Anglo seems not to have uncovered any other horrors, if this is accurate

Wasnt the bejasus censored out of it before it was let out into the public arena..
€7bn of a debt which wont be recovered to be borne by the taxpayers .i.e the little people who gained nothing from all the FF tolerated ( if not actively encouraged) shenanigans by irresponsible well heeled "patriots".
If we wont be like the French then all we can hope for is for Germany to take over running the Government's Finances and our Banks for the next 20 years. 
By the way why should I "share the pain" caused by those fcukin' cnuts like Fitzpatrick  and the rest of the "Golden Circle" aided and abetted by McCreevy,Harney,Ahern and all the rest of the crooked swine.

They are only part of the problem. They screwed up royally without doubt.

But part of the reason the Government screwed up is by increasing the Public Service bill over the years. Instead of making it more efficient they did the opposite. That is not to blame the Public Service workers as it is hardly their fault.

1/6 of Irish workers are employed in the public service. That fraction is rising by the week as private sector workers are laid off.
2/6 of Irish workers don't pay any income tax. That number is increasing with pay cuts appearing all over the private sector.

The reality is that 50% of workers pay almost all the bills. That 50% is going down due to job losses and pay cuts removing more of them from the tax net and the bills are going up.

It is a recipe for disaster.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: pintsofguinness on February 21, 2009, 02:05:00 PM
QuoteBecause of the economy going down the tubes because we squandered the economic boom of the last ten years. Instead of positioning ourselves to be ready for the inevitable downturn, we inflated a property bubble, building houses for people coming here to build houses, grant-aiding the building of hotels that are now empty and so on. Now, as tens of thousands join the dole queues and the tax take shrivels, we can't finance the  running of the country and have to pauperise oourselves with foreign debt at punitive interest rates because international lenders reckon we're a bunch of cowboys.
Cant imagine where they'd get that idea  :-\
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: the Deel Rover on February 21, 2009, 02:09:09 PM
jUST wondering lads can any one tell me how did canada and the canadian banks not get sucked in to the greed that the Irish , English , Us banks and many others how did they avoid a similiar fate whereby their govenrment has not had to bail out any banks ?Every country in the world seems to be suffering except for canada fair fcuks to them. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on February 21, 2009, 02:16:59 PM
Quote from: Hardy on February 21, 2009, 01:43:07 PM. If you took all their money off them - which I'd be fully in favour of, together with locking them up for a long spell - it wouldn't make a ripple in the ocean of debt they've caused. It wouldn't even pay the extra interest occasioned by the increased rates their spivvery and chancerism has caused us to have to pay. Ironically, only we, the little people they despise, collectively have the wherewithal to undo what they've done. And every penny we contribute will be a real penny, not a CFD, make-believe, funny-money penny like the ones they made on the way up.

Once again it's capitalism, free enterprise and "what's mine is mine" when they're gaining and nationalisation and shared pain when they're losing.
I can't see that Seanie could have too much money about him, I'd imagine almost every penny he has is tied up in property, those loans were all to finance property investments after all, and most of his other wealth was presumably in the form of anglo shares.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Lecale2 on February 21, 2009, 02:33:37 PM
This year's budget shortfall is expected to be 9.5 percent of gross domestic product. Surely Social partnership has to be for the bad times as well as the good times.

The opposition are playing politics and offering no alternative strategy.  If everyone doesn't start to pull together soon to tackle the budget deficit the IMF will be brought in by the EU commission (Germans) to do the dirty work.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Rossfan on February 21, 2009, 03:17:32 PM
Quote from: the Deel Rover on February 21, 2009, 02:09:09 PM
jUST wondering lads can any one tell me how did canada and the canadian banks not get sucked in to the greed that the Irish , English , Us banks and many others how did they avoid a similiar fate whereby their govenrment has not had to bail out any banks ?Every country in the world seems to be suffering except for canada fair fcuks to them. 

Because in Canada they still have some belief in that quaint old fashioned idea that a Country is a Society not something set up to enable rich people to get richer and when it goes belly up through their greed make the plain people feel the pain.
Canada also has an excellent public health system because of their quaint old fashioned beliefs unlike our Harney/McEvaddy health system.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on February 21, 2009, 04:16:09 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on February 21, 2009, 03:17:32 PM
Quote from: the Deel Rover on February 21, 2009, 02:09:09 PM
jUST wondering lads can any one tell me how did canada and the canadian banks not get sucked in to the greed that the Irish , English , Us banks and many others how did they avoid a similiar fate whereby their govenrment has not had to bail out any banks ?Every country in the world seems to be suffering except for canada fair fcuks to them. 

Because in Canada they still have some belief in that quaint old fashioned idea that a Country is a Society not something set up to enable rich people to get richer and when it goes belly up through their greed make the plain people feel the pain.
Canada also has an excellent public health system because of their quaint old fashioned beliefs unlike our Harney/McEvaddy health system.
Here's a good article on the Canadian banking system - interestingly, European banks operated along much the same lines, however whilst being as conservative as they were at home, they were hugely exposed to the US sub prime disaster.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2009/0221/1224241590852.html
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on February 22, 2009, 10:56:04 PM
Was this article the start of the Anglo €451 Million scandal? (http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/anglo-irish-clients-plan-8364500m-revenge-fund-1360423.html)

The Times named the following 4 though please note there is no way of knowing at the moment if they are correct or not.

QuoteGerry Gannon, Joe O'Reilly, Seamus Ross and Jerry Conlan

Seamus Ross of Mennolly Homes See blog (http://www.gavinsblog.com/2009/02/22/seamus-ross/)

Gerry Gannon of Gannon homes (http://www.gannonhomes.ie/)

Joe O'Reilly of Adamstown and Dundrum Shopping Centre fame 2005 SBP article (http://archives.tcm.ie/businesspost/2005/02/20/story2517.asp)


Jerry Conlon set up the Mount Carmel  Medical Group (http://www.mountcarmel.ie/management.html) which "has been appointed by the Health Service Executive to build private hospitals on the grounds of public hospitals as part of the co-location strategy. " (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/ireland/article5781014.ece)

The article mentions two others who didn't return calls.

They are:

Partick Kearney of PBN properties from Belfast who is building in Manchester (http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/s/1095450_new_tesco_could_revive_market). 

John McCabe of McCabe builders (http://www.mccabebuilders.com/about.html)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on February 22, 2009, 10:58:26 PM
There are still rumours about a possible TD in the 10.

Looking at that list it wouldn't be too difficult to guess which one. Of course it is probably just a rumour with no foundation.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: tyronefan on February 22, 2009, 11:10:44 PM
any clues muppet

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on February 22, 2009, 11:24:31 PM
Quote from: tyronefan on February 22, 2009, 11:10:44 PM
any clues muppet



At least 3 property companies were to build around 13,000 units in North Dublin in a square between Clare Hall, Baldoyle, Portmarnock and Balgriffin.

Two are named above.

One named after a long river is not in the list above.

Use the force tyronefan.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: tyronefan on February 22, 2009, 11:27:05 PM
got ya now  a little slow
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on February 22, 2009, 11:28:03 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 22, 2009, 10:58:26 PM
There are still rumours about a possible TD in the 10.

Looking at that list it wouldn't be too difficult to guess which one. Of course it is probably just a rumour with no foundation.
Bit boring really, had a fair idea Gannon would be there, Ross and Reilly not surprises either, but can't think of any TD directly linked.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on February 22, 2009, 11:30:21 PM
Quote from: tyronefan on February 22, 2009, 11:27:05 PM
got ya now  a little slow

I am amazed he hasn't come out with a public statement denying any involvement.............. ???
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: tyronefan on February 22, 2009, 11:34:52 PM
they generally wait until they know for sure that the papers are going to name, then they give a statement hours before the paper is due out denying everything.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on February 22, 2009, 11:46:00 PM
I'm still lost, think I know the company, but not getting the link - are you certain that the FF TD is involved in the company?  Presuming he has been involved in controversy over his business holdings before? Is the spelling of the TD and the person connected to the company not different?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: armaghniac on February 22, 2009, 11:58:20 PM
QuoteBut part of the reason the Government screwed up is by increasing the Public Service bill over the years

It is even simpler than this. The government did not have a reasonable assessment of its own finances. It was taking in lots of loot from stamp duty on a volume of sales transactions at prices that couldn't last. It didn't admit that it couldn't last, had it done then it might have looked at the implications for banks etc. It then spent this money on various things, including the public service.  It is a bit like many individuals who borrowed to the hilt on the basis of incomes including lots of overtime at inflated rates for doing work which were never going to last. The government did pay back the national debt and pay into the pension fund, if they had a properly calculated assessment of what was going on they would have done much more of this in the good times. Now that the Intl situation is much worse than anyone expected the government has not enough in reserve to keep things in some sort of balance and they have to cut back too, making things worse.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on February 23, 2009, 08:49:14 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on February 22, 2009, 11:58:20 PMIt didn't admit that it couldn't last, had it done then it might have looked at the implications for banks etc.

Sadly, i don't think the government understood that this wouldn't last, I really don't.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on February 23, 2009, 09:35:28 AM
Quote from: Bogball XV on February 22, 2009, 11:46:00 PM
I'm still lost, think I know the company, but not getting the link - are you certain that the FF TD is involved in the company?  Presuming he has been involved in controversy over his business holdings before? Is the spelling of the TD and the person connected to the company not different?

Firstly I am not certain there even is any TD invloved at all. It is a just rumour.

Secondly you may be right. I assumed it was the same person but it may not be, though the TD very is definately a shareholder in a property developers.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Donagh on February 23, 2009, 09:38:09 AM
Quote from: Bogball XV on February 22, 2009, 11:28:03 PM
Bit boring really, had a fair idea Gannon would be there, Ross and Reilly not surprises either, but can't think of any TD directly linked.

Frank Fahey (allegedly)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Rossfan on February 23, 2009, 09:38:49 AM
FF TD involved with property developers.....Ahhh Never ... :o
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: ludermor on February 23, 2009, 09:42:01 AM
http://gaaboard.com/board/index.php?topic=6869.150

As per Donagh post i see Fahey has been named as one of the golden circle.How many pies does he have his fingers in?
Never knew he was involved with Shannon homes.

Again sorry for being ignorant but can someone explain what exactly the 'golden circle' have done wrong?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Rossfan on February 23, 2009, 09:45:46 AM
A bit like a butcher gives 10 special customers €1,000 loans to use to buy meat from him over the next few months using the meat as collateral. The  butcher then shows his missus the amount of sales the shop had over that period and she thinks they have a real profitable business.
The customers then have no money to pay back the loans and the mate is et so no collateral.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on February 23, 2009, 09:47:46 AM
Quote from: ludermor on February 23, 2009, 09:42:01 AM
http://gaaboard.com/board/index.php?topic=6869.150

As per Donagh post i see Fahey has been named as one of the golden circle.How many pies does he have his fingers in?
Never knew he was involved with Shannon homes.

Again sorry for being ignorant but can someone explain what exactly the 'golden circle' have done wrong?


That looks like it's another Frank Fah(e)y.

The TD version has declared to the Oireachtas in the past that he is a shareholder in another developers but it wasn't disclosed how many shares he held.

I would be surprised if the TD version would have the collateral for such a sizeable loan.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on February 23, 2009, 09:54:06 AM
Quote from: muppet on February 23, 2009, 09:47:46 AM
Quote from: ludermor on February 23, 2009, 09:42:01 AM
http://gaaboard.com/board/index.php?topic=6869.150

As per Donagh post i see Fahey has been named as one of the golden circle.How many pies does he have his fingers in?
Never knew he was involved with Shannon homes.

Again sorry for being ignorant but can someone explain what exactly the 'golden circle' have done wrong?


That looks like it's another Frank Fah(e)y.

The TD version has declared to the Oireachtas in the past that he is a shareholder in another developers but it wasn't disclosed how many shares he held.

I would be surprised if the TD version would have the collateral for such a sizeable loan.
Yeah, I was trying to find the SIPO declarations online last night, but couldn't - are they online?  I don't think it's the same person, but you never know!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Gnevin on February 23, 2009, 10:00:50 AM
Restart talks or face strikes, Government told

   
By Anne-Marie Walsh Industry correspondent

Monday February 23 2009

A PUBLIC sector union leader has warned that unions will have "no choice" but to strike in the absence of a Government invitation to return to the negotiating table.

Public Service Executive Union (PSEU) leader Tom Geraghty also indicated that they might accept the pension levy -- but only with major changes to protect the lower paid.

The Irish Congress of Trade Unions said the main purpose of the national demonstration of 120,000 workers on Saturday was to spark a return to negotiations after talks collapsed earlier this month.

If there is no sign that the Government is open to a major renegotiation of the hike in pension contributions by Tuesday -- when the ICTU executive council decides on its next step -- it is likely that unions may re-ballot or even act on their current mandate for industrial action.

The union for lower-paid civil servants, the Civil and Public Services Union, has already decided to hold a work stoppage on Thursday that could cripple key services, including dole and passport offices.

Mr Geraghty's PSEU, which represents 10,000 executive grades in the civil and public sector, said he expects members will back up to four days of industrial action when it discloses the result of its ballot today.

Teachers unions, representing 55,000 members, will begin balloting this week. Last night, TUI general secretary Peter McMenamin said his union would begin balloting for a strike of up to two days today.

Bigger unions such as Impact, SIPTU and the Irish Nurses Organisation -- which have held off on ballot announcements -- could review their position this week.

"If the Government does not invite us into talks, it will have to escalate into industrial action," said Mr Geraghty.

Talks

"I don't think we have any choice. We are not demanding that the levy is abolished . . . but that does not mean that tweaking it to give €100 back to a few people will be enough.

"We would like the Government to come to us and invite us to talks."

The general secretary of the Irish National Teachers' Organisation (INTO), John Carr, said the Government "must come to the table".

He said the weekend march was a vote of no-confidence in the handling of the economic crisis, and the only way to avoid serious industrial unrest was to reconvene social partnership.

The unions' main gripe with the pension levy, which ranges from three percent to 9.6pc of income on top of existing contributions of up to 6.5pc, is that it is disproportionately weighted against workers on lower and middle incomes.

Figures it released show a lower paid worker on €39,000 a year will pay €2,120 a year after tax, while a higher paid worker on €48,000 will pay €2,094.50 a year.

A Government spokesperson did not rule out further talks last night but said measures to cut the public payroll by €1.4bn would not be dramatically altered.

"We've always made it clear that we're open for discussion on these matters," he said.


http://www.independent.ie/national-news/restart-talks-or-face-strikes-government-told-1649750.html


Union want and want but have yet to offer anything.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on February 23, 2009, 10:19:02 AM
Quote from: Gnevin on February 23, 2009, 10:00:50 AM
The unions' main gripe with the pension levy, which ranges from three percent to 9.6pc of income on top of existing contributions of up to 6.5pc, is that it is disproportionately weighted against workers on lower and middle incomes.

Figures it released show a lower paid worker on €39,000 a year will pay €2,120 a year after tax, while a higher paid worker on €48,000 will pay €2,094.50 a year.

A Government spokesperson did not rule out further talks last night but said measures to cut the public payroll by €1.4bn would not be dramatically altered.

"We've always made it clear that we're open for discussion on these matters," he said.


http://www.independent.ie/national-news/restart-talks-or-face-strikes-government-told-1649750.html


Union want and want but have yet to offer anything.
Looks like another U-turn so.  The union are spinning again, their numbers maybe right, but I'd like to see just how many workers that affects in that way and the individual circumstances of the worker.  What so they want though, one obvious solution would be to restrict pension relief to 20%, that should remove the anomaly and restore equity, I'm sure the higher paid worker would be happy too ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: stephenite on February 23, 2009, 10:26:18 AM
Quote from: ludermor on February 23, 2009, 09:42:01 AM
http://gaaboard.com/board/index.php?topic=6869.150
Again sorry for being ignorant but can someone explain what exactly the 'golden circle' have done wrong?


The tribune reported that the Central bank had full knowledge of the deal - so it would appear that this lends a certain legitimacy to it, even it was technically illegal
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on February 23, 2009, 10:43:35 AM
Quote from: ludermor on February 23, 2009, 09:42:01 AMAgain sorry for being ignorant but can someone explain what exactly the 'golden circle' have done wrong?

My take is this:

Quinn had to change his CFD's into shares.  He held 25% via CFD's, he could only afford 15% (see his having to ahem, borrow, from Quinn Insurance in order to fund this).  The other 10% could not be dumped on the market as it would have seen share prices plummet, Fitzpatrick and the Anglo board were in contact with Quinn and in fact I think helped fund his purchase of the 15% too, they then tried to raise a consortium of investors to buy up the other 10%.  Naturally investors were hard to come by, that's why a special incentive was arranged whereby Anglo agreed to loan these guys the money to buy the shares, with the loans mostly secured on the shares they were to buy and with no recourse to the purchaser should things go belly up. 
For the investors this was an almost risk free bet, shares go up they win, shares go down, they don't lose (bar a few quid - €87M of €451 has been repaid).
For the bank this has the effect of letting the market think that investors have confidence in the company, that they have another 450 in extra loan business and most importantly the shares aren't dumped and therefore this should help the shares retain their value.  Unfortunately there are certain circumstances where companies are allowed to buy their own shares and this isn't one of them, so this appears to have been a situation manufactured by Anglo in order to circumvent the law, it was in effect an illegal share support scheme.
I don't know that the golden circle have done anything wrong, but Anglo have almost certainly transgressed and as they facilitated this, they may have too?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: bcarrier on February 23, 2009, 10:43:44 AM
What about this HSE fiasco ...my understanding is that most heathcare in South has to be paid for wheras in the Uk there is a higher level of  "free care".

In 2003 average cost of NHS was £1250 per head of population in Uk. If we say it has risen by say 40% since and is now £1750 per head this compares unfavourably with the HSE budget of 14.5BN for 4.2 m of population ie 3500 euro per head. The numbers employed seem bloated too ...113,000 equals one HSE employee per 37 people in the country.

Maybe I have a fundamental misunderstanding but " Benchmarking" in Ireland seems to have been nothing of the sort.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: bcarrier on February 23, 2009, 10:48:55 AM
While major wrong doing is Anglos I think the golden circle - as reasonably competent businessmen - should have known this was illegal. In the circumstances the non recourse element of the deal  should be attacked .
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: ludermor on February 23, 2009, 10:56:40 AM
Quote from: Bogball XV on February 23, 2009, 10:43:35 AM
My take is this:
Quinn had to change his CFD's into shares.  He held 25% via CFD's, he could only afford 15% (see his having to ahem, borrow, from Quinn Insurance in order to fund this).  The other 10% could not be dumped on the market as it would have seen share prices plummet, Fitzpatrick and the Anglo board were in contact with Quinn and in fact I think helped fund his purchase of the 15% too, they then tried to raise a consortium of investors to buy up the other 10%.  Naturally investors were hard to come by, that's why a special incentive was arranged whereby Anglo agreed to loan these guys the money to buy the shares, with the loans mostly secured on the shares they were to buy and with no recourse to the purchaser should things go belly up. 
For the investors this was an almost risk free bet, shares go up they win, shares go down, they don't lose (bar a few quid - €87M of €451 has been repaid).
For the bank this has the effect of letting the market think that investors have confidence in the company, that they have another 450 in extra loan business and most importantly the shares aren't dumped and therefore this should help the shares retain their value.  Unfortunately there are certain circumstances where companies are allowed to buy their own shares and this isn't one of them, so this appears to have been a situation manufactured by Anglo in order to circumvent the law, it was in effect an illegal share support scheme.
I don't know that the golden circle have done anything wrong, but Anglo have almost certainly transgressed and as they facilitated this, they may have too?
Cheers for that Bogball.
Starting to have more of an interest at the minute as the client on my job is one of the golden lads.
On another note
http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0222/anglo.html
Ryan says  the Government was determined that all the debts would be discharged and failing this any assets provided in security for the loans would come under State control.
How will that work? Will the Gov take over housing estates? Commercial Developments?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Hound on February 23, 2009, 10:59:14 AM
Personally I don't think the golden circle did anything wrong. They bought a heap of shares, they thought they'd make a heap of money, and it seems Anglo organised it so it was effectively a free bet. Though I'd love it if they could find that it wasnt a free bet and they could go after their assets.

On the other hand, the guys who organised this and the other dodgy Anglo dealings, Drumm, Fitzpatrick, and maybe Quinn. They should be in jail awaiting trial.

I'm hugely annoyed that the unions seem to have persuaded so many in the public service that they should strike over the levy. By all their comments, actions, and even some of the statisitics they dig up, the unions are clearly intent on fanning the flames of discontent.  
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Hardy on February 23, 2009, 11:01:02 AM
Quote from: Bogball XV on February 23, 2009, 10:43:35 AM
Quote from: ludermor on February 23, 2009, 09:42:01 AMAgain sorry for being ignorant but can someone explain what exactly the 'golden circle' have done wrong?

My take is this:

Quinn had to change his CFD's into shares.  He held 25% via CFD's, he could only afford 15% (see his having to ahem, borrow, from Quinn Insurance in order to fund this).  The other 10% could not be dumped on the market as it would have seen share prices plummet, Fitzpatrick and the Anglo board were in contact with Quinn and in fact I think helped fund his purchase of the 15% too, they then tried to raise a consortium of investors to buy up the other 10%.  Naturally investors were hard to come by, that's why a special incentive was arranged whereby Anglo agreed to loan these guys the money to buy the shares, with the loans mostly secured on the shares they were to buy and with no recourse to the purchaser should things go belly up. 
For the investors this was an almost risk free bet, shares go up they win, shares go down, they don't lose (bar a few quid - €87M of €451 has been repaid).
For the bank this has the effect of letting the market think that investors have confidence in the company, that they have another 450 in extra loan business and most importantly the shares aren't dumped and therefore this should help the shares retain their value.  Unfortunately there are certain circumstances where companies are allowed to buy their own shares and this isn't one of them, so this appears to have been a situation manufactured by Anglo in order to circumvent the law, it was in effect an illegal share support scheme.
I don't know that the golden circle have done anything wrong, but Anglo have almost certainly transgressed and as they facilitated this, they may have too?


Bogball - the bit I haven't understood about Quinn's purchase is why he had to convert his CFDs to shares and what triggered that.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on February 23, 2009, 11:42:44 AM
Quote from: Hardy on February 23, 2009, 11:01:02 AMBogball - the bit I haven't understood about Quinn's purchase is why he had to convert his CFDs to shares and what triggered that.
Not certain on the workings of CFD's tbh, but I think it was a combination of margin calls and the fact that at least if he had the physical shares as opposed to derivatives of them he would have the possibility of something tangible (were they still talking about paying dividends back then, or was that just AIB) and voting rights etc.  Caide had a reasonable explanation of them on saturday past.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Hardy on February 23, 2009, 12:46:13 PM
Thanks Bogball. Yes - I saw Caid's tutorial on CFDs - very interesting. Just thought I was missing something about how Quinn  suddenly needed to come up with dosh for the shares.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on February 23, 2009, 10:09:06 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 22, 2009, 10:56:04 PM
Was this article the start of the Anglo €451 Million scandal? (http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/anglo-irish-clients-plan-8364500m-revenge-fund-1360423.html)

The Times named the following 4 though please note there is no way of knowing at the moment if they are correct or not.

QuoteGerry Gannon, Joe O'Reilly, Seamus Ross and Jerry Conlan

Seamus Ross of Mennolly Homes See blog (http://www.gavinsblog.com/2009/02/22/seamus-ross/)

Gerry Gannon of Gannon homes (http://www.gannonhomes.ie/)

Joe O'Reilly of Adamstown and Dundrum Shopping Centre fame 2005 SBP article (http://archives.tcm.ie/businesspost/2005/02/20/story2517.asp)


Jerry Conlon set up the Mount Carmel  Medical Group (http://www.mountcarmel.ie/management.html) which "has been appointed by the Health Service Executive to build private hospitals on the grounds of public hospitals as part of the co-location strategy. " (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/ireland/article5781014.ece)

The article mentions two others who didn't return calls.

They are:

Partick Kearney of PBN properties from Belfast who is building in Manchester (http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/s/1095450_new_tesco_could_revive_market). 

John McCabe of McCabe builders (http://www.mccabebuilders.com/about.html)

Funny how the connection with one of the developers to the building of Private Health centres on public land for the HSE has been largely overlooked.

The 10 may have done nothing wrong in the Anglo transaction but the possible links to cabinet decisions needs closer inspection IMHO. Also any relationship whatsoever to cabinet members need to be explored and made public.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: passedit on February 23, 2009, 10:20:22 PM


Whatever about Ireland its small potatoes compared to what's happening accross the pond.

QuoteAIG sees $60 billion loss, no plans for bankruptcy: source
Mon Feb 23, 2009 4:29pm EST



NEW YORK (Reuters) - American International Group Inc expects to report a fourth-quarter loss of about $60 billion, a source familiar with the matter said on Monday.

The troubled insurer has also retained the law firm Weil, Gotshal & Manges, but has no plans to file for bankruptcy, the source said.

(Reporting by Paritosh Bansal; editing by Jeffrey Benkoe)

(For more M&A news and our DealZone blog, go to www.reuters.com/deals)

Thats $60,000,000,000 in three months. Please note my tagline
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: passedit on February 23, 2009, 10:29:10 PM
More good news a little closer to home

Quote
Taxpayers to insure £500bn of bank assets

    * Robert Peston
    * 23 Feb 09, 09:45 PM

Taxpayers may become liable for £500bn of poor loans and investments made by Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds TSB, the BBC has learned.

Negotiations are at an advanced stage on what the Treasury has called its Asset Protection Scheme, which would involve taxpayers insuring banks against future losses on their less prudent lending and investment.

It is understood that each of Lloyds and Royal Bank hope to insure £250bn of their loans and investments.

They are working towards a deadline of Thursday for Royal Bank and Friday for Lloyds to agree the outline of the deal with the Treasury.

If £500bn of their assets are insured, this would be a bold attempt by the Treasury to achieve two outcomes: first, to strengthen their balance sheets to avoid having to nationalise the banks fully if their losses increase: second, to release resources within the banks to generate perhaps £30bn or £40bn of new lending to companies and homebuyers.

It would also, however, lift the total of British taxpayer support for our banks since the start of the credit crunch - in the form of loans, guarantees, insurance and investment - to a remarkable £1.3 trillion, more-or-less equivalent to the entire annual output of the British economy or GDP.

Sources close to the negotiations said there are still important disagreements between the Treasury and the banks on the terms of the deal.

One contentious area is the size of the loss - known as the first loss - that the banks must incur before taxpayers pick up the tab.

The Treasury wanted the banks' owners, their shareholders, to be liable for the first 10 per cent of the loss.

But on £500bn of assets, that 10 per cent loss would potentially destroy their balance sheets - and thus end up weakening the banks, rather than strengthening them.

Second, is the size of the fee payable by the banks.

This would be in the form of participating preference shares to be issued to the Treasury and would probably be classed under banking regulations as core tier one capital - which means they would reinforce the financial robustness of the banks.

These shares would carry no votes. So the Government's voting control of Royal Bank would remain at 70 per cent and 43 per cent for Lloyds TSB.

But if the fee were set high, the Government's economic interest in these banks - it claims over the banks' assets - could approach 100 per cent.

In the sense of rights over the banks' profits and assets, there would be little or nothing left for Royal Bank's and Lloyds' private sector shareholders. This would represent "economic" nationalisation of the banks, if not formal nationalisation.

The banks and Treasury officials, together with teams of City advisers, are struggling to construct a formula that avoids this economic nationalisation.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on February 23, 2009, 11:03:46 PM
http://www.gavinsblog.com/2009/02/23/did-shane-ross-forget/ (http://www.gavinsblog.com/2009/02/23/did-shane-ross-forget/)

Saw this on P.ie.

Shane Ross wrote a peice in April about how a group of investors were going to to set up a fund to 'teach the hedge funds a lesson'. He claimed at the time that one of them had told him this.

Funny how he has stayed quiet about it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: bcarrier on February 23, 2009, 11:24:54 PM
Senator Ross runs with the hare and chases with hounds .

The golden circle is a continuing distraction fron problems at boi and aib imo.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on February 24, 2009, 01:14:04 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0224/anglo.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0224/anglo.html)

QuoteGardaí from the fraud squad are carrying out searches at the headquarters of Anglo Irish Bank in St Stephen's Green in Dublin.

The searches are being conducted as part of an investigation led by the Director of Corporate Enforcement with members of the Garda Bureau of Fraud Investigation.

Search teams went into the bank's offices just after 9am this morning.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: whiskeysteve on February 24, 2009, 01:26:49 PM
O how the mighty have fallen
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Lecale2 on February 24, 2009, 08:24:33 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0224/economy.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0224/economy.html)

The Unions are calling for a national strike. They want the 6% pay rise agreed last year paid. Do they watch the news?  :-\
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Main Street on February 24, 2009, 09:10:39 PM
Quote from: Lecale2 on February 24, 2009, 08:24:33 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0224/economy.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0224/economy.html)

The Unions are calling for a national strike. They want the 6% pay rise agreed last year paid. Do they watch the news?  :-\
I read the article
'However, private sector unions argue that the deal already has sufficient provisions to assist firms in financial difficulties and who cannot pay the 6% increase.
They say that those who can afford to pay should not be allowed to back out of the deal'.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Lecale2 on February 24, 2009, 09:41:47 PM
Inflation is running at 2.1%. Where's the justification for a 6% pay rise?

Companies are closing plants because Ireland is too expensive to do business in. Public servants are taking a pay cut (levy). Ireland has the highest minimum wage in Europe, the smallest tax payer base and the biggest budget deficit.

Wake up and smell the coffee before it's too late!!

http://www.finfacts.ie/inflation.htm (http://www.finfacts.ie/inflation.htm)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on February 24, 2009, 09:52:22 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 24, 2009, 01:14:04 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0224/anglo.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0224/anglo.html)

QuoteGardaí from the fraud squad are carrying out searches at the headquarters of Anglo Irish Bank in St Stephen's Green in Dublin.

The searches are being conducted as part of an investigation led by the Director of Corporate Enforcement with members of the Garda Bureau of Fraud Investigation.

Search teams went into the bank's offices just after 9am this morning.


Gosh, that's really really serious isn't it!!!  Appleby had no reason to take the guards with him, unless he was directed to do so by those on high, he is only in there to gather evidence (hmm, I wonder how many weeks/months too late in order to actually find anything useful) with which he can show the high court that a court inspector should be appointed.  The inspector then takes about 4 years to write a report on it which may recommend something, he will be stymied at every opportunity with judicial reviews and high court challenges, by the time the report comes out, its recommendations will be so emasculated that it will serve no purpose at all.
But then maybe the only purpose was to try and calm the restless mobs by pretending that we're serious??
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Rossfan on February 24, 2009, 10:19:20 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on February 24, 2009, 09:52:22 PM
But then maybe the only purpose was to try and calm the restless mobs by pretending that we're serious??

Indeed and they've sent "nice" left leaning(perceived) Noel Dempsey out to bat for the Government on a few RTE programmes yesterday and today.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Main Street on February 24, 2009, 11:46:28 PM
Quote from: Lecale2 on February 24, 2009, 09:41:47 PM
Inflation is running at 2.1%. Where's the justification for a 6% pay rise?

Companies are closing plants because Ireland is too expensive to do business in. Public servants are taking a pay cut (levy). Ireland has the highest minimum wage in Europe, the smallest tax payer base and the biggest budget deficit.

Wake up and smell the coffee before it's too late!!

http://www.finfacts.ie/inflation.htm (http://www.finfacts.ie/inflation.htm)
What's the problem with the minimum wage?
It's the maximum wages/income that are out of whack.
Let someone else for a change wake up and smell the coffee during a severe recession.
It's always the same shíte, the rich lose their money, then they swipe the nations tax kitty as compensation for their efforts, then the Government want to penalise the taxpayer for that theft. The scapegoat becomes the lowest paid worker.
Sounds like the con of the century.
Maybe there might be a few more euro in the State kitty if they were not running around like mad bailing out speculators with billions of taxpayers money.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on February 25, 2009, 07:44:42 AM
Quote"nice" left leaning(perceived) Noel Dempsey

For anyone who has seen this man in action this must bring a smile to their faces. An arrogant smarmy bully
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: johnneycool on February 25, 2009, 10:41:23 AM
Quote from: Main Street on February 24, 2009, 11:46:28 PM
Quote from: Lecale2 on February 24, 2009, 09:41:47 PM
Inflation is running at 2.1%. Where's the justification for a 6% pay rise?

Companies are closing plants because Ireland is too expensive to do business in. Public servants are taking a pay cut (levy). Ireland has the highest minimum wage in Europe, the smallest tax payer base and the biggest budget deficit.

Wake up and smell the coffee before it's too late!!

http://www.finfacts.ie/inflation.htm (http://www.finfacts.ie/inflation.htm)
What's the problem with the minimum wage?
It's the maximum wages/income that are out of whack.
Let someone else for a change wake up and smell the coffee during a severe recession.
It's always the same shíte, the rich lose their money, then they swipe the nations tax kitty as compensation for their efforts, then the Government want to penalise the taxpayer for that theft. The scapegoat becomes the lowest paid worker.
Sounds like the con of the century.
Maybe there might be a few more euro in the State kitty if they were not running around like mad bailing out speculators with billions of taxpayers money.



I've always wondered about the impact of this minimum wage bollocks a lot of people trot out considering the only ones considering expanding their operations in Ireland are the likes of subway or call centres. If the minimum wage was too high these are the sort of companies that'd be shying away from here.

Are we paying middle to senior management too much, I don't know as you'll get the free market competition line.

I know our managers and senior managers get 10 to 13% less than the fellow UK equivalents for doing the same job based on some form of market data guidelines. I'm also led to believe than teachers and civil servants in the north get paid less than UK equivalents as well but I can't say I've hard data to back that up.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: bcarrier on February 25, 2009, 12:50:33 PM
Dole is too high so minimum wage needs to be kept higher to make work worthwhile with knock on effect that each "level" within the workforce seeks to maintain their "differentials" . The end result is an overpriced economy.

It is peculiar how people can see the advantage of going north for their purchases but cant see that international companies have even more options when buying labour.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: johnneycool on February 25, 2009, 01:41:23 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on February 25, 2009, 12:50:33 PM
Dole is too high so minimum wage needs to be kept higher to make work worthwhile with knock on effect that each "level" within the workforce seeks to maintain their "differentials" . The end result is an overpriced economy.

It is peculiar how people can see the advantage of going north for their purchases but cant see that international companies have even more options when buying labour.

I suppose all wages/salaries are related to the standard of living that said amounts give you.

If the dole in the south gives you a fairly comfortable standard of living then why go out to work for a minimum wage (other than self esteem) which may not essentially improve your lot.

Certainly in the north there are people on DLA/job seekers/single parent suppliment or all of the above who it wouldn't make financial sense to go out to work and i find that wrong but how do you resolve it. I'd bring back the blue fibre glass bubble cars for a start.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Main Street on February 25, 2009, 02:13:21 PM
The dole is a strange one.
A regulated social welfare is one which offers you work, even minimum wage work, after allowances for a few refusals the unemployment benefit is stopped if work is still being refused. That way, the aim is to whittle down the numbers to the truly disfunctional unemployed and the unemployable.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Rossfan on February 25, 2009, 06:33:15 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on February 25, 2009, 12:50:33 PM
Dole is too high .

So what can of a life can YOU have on €204.00 per week. Be grand if you could live on fresh air.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: orangeman on February 25, 2009, 06:45:54 PM
Did any of you read a letter from a reade in Leitrim in the Independent giving his "recovery plan" for the economy ???


I'll try and list the points he made :

1. Nationalise BOI and AIB - set up a new clean bank into which you put all the bad loans and manage them separately, creating three clean banks.
2. Reduce the mortgages of those homeowners in negative equity down to the current value of their homes and reduce all mortgages / remortgages taken out cince 2005 by 10%.
3. Reduce electricity and gas prices by 33% for a period of 2 years. Reduce hospital, GP, Legal and accountancy charges by 20%. Reduce transport charges incl rail,bus and taxis by 15% and tolls by 20%.
4. Overhaul the political system incl the number of TDs, their wages and the way they are elected.
5. NOW you can reduce wages across the board by 15% ( not applying to those who already have taken a cut ) and raise the tax rate by 2%. and create a new tax rate of 48% for those who earn more thsan 100k.

6. Reduce the minimum wage to €.50 an hour but limit the rate to those who can apply it to tourism and hospitality.
7. Reduce council charges by 15%
8.

What do you think ????????
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: carribbear on February 25, 2009, 06:52:41 PM
Quote from: orangeman on February 25, 2009, 06:45:54 PM

2. Reduce the mortgages of those homeowners in negative equity down to the current value of their homes and reduce all mortgages / remortgages taken out cince 2005 by 10%.

4. Overhaul the political system incl the number of TDs, their wages and the way they are elected.

2 - I disagree, if you decided to buy a house that was beyond your means there should not be any reason why you now get a discount. Extend the period of the mortgage but lessen the amount you have to pay each month. Your children or relatives should have to take on your burden, thats a life lesson you should not be allowed to forget until it is all paid off or you sell it.

4 - How about a first past the post system. There is no need for 5 TDs in Carlow-Kilkenny etc. Carve up smaller regions but only one TD per area so it would reduce the number of TDs by half. Then they'd have to WORK to keep their position and have less time for all the outside interests.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: pintsofguinness on February 25, 2009, 07:16:47 PM
Quote from: orangeman on February 25, 2009, 06:45:54 PM
Did any of you read a letter from a reade in Leitrim in the Independent giving his "recovery plan" for the economy ???


I'll try and list the points he made :

1. Nationalise BOI and AIB - set up a new clean bank into which you put all the bad loans and manage them separately, creating three clean banks.
2. Reduce the mortgages of those homeowners in negative equity down to the current value of their homes and reduce all mortgages / remortgages taken out cince 2005 by 10%.
3. Reduce electricity and gas prices by 33% for a period of 2 years. Reduce hospital, GP, Legal and accountancy charges by 20%. Reduce transport charges incl rail,bus and taxis by 15% and tolls by 20%.
4. Overhaul the political system incl the number of TDs, their wages and the way they are elected.
5. NOW you can reduce wages across the board by 15% ( not applying to those who already have taken a cut ) and raise the tax rate by 2%. and create a new tax rate of 48% for those who earn more thsan 100k.

6. Reduce the minimum wage to €.50 an hour but limit the rate to those who can apply it to tourism and hospitality.
7. Reduce council charges by 15%
8.

What do you think ????????

What downright complete bullshit.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Gnevin on February 25, 2009, 07:19:59 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on February 25, 2009, 07:16:47 PM
Quote from: orangeman on February 25, 2009, 06:45:54 PM
Did any of you read a letter from a reade in Leitrim in the Independent giving his "recovery plan" for the economy ???


I'll try and list the points he made :

1. Nationalise BOI and AIB - set up a new clean bank into which you put all the bad loans and manage them separately, creating three clean banks.
2. Reduce the mortgages of those homeowners in negative equity down to the current value of their homes and reduce all mortgages / remortgages taken out cince 2005 by 10%.
3. Reduce electricity and gas prices by 33% for a period of 2 years. Reduce hospital, GP, Legal and accountancy charges by 20%. Reduce transport charges incl rail,bus and taxis by 15% and tolls by 20%.
4. Overhaul the political system incl the number of TDs, their wages and the way they are elected.
5. NOW you can reduce wages across the board by 15% ( not applying to those who already have taken a cut ) and raise the tax rate by 2%. and create a new tax rate of 48% for those who earn more thsan 100k.

6. Reduce the minimum wage to €.50 an hour but limit the rate to those who can apply it to tourism and hospitality.
7. Reduce council charges by 15%
8.

What do you think ????????

What downright complete bullshit.
Argeed , the solution to toxic debt is to write 10% off mortgages and create more toxic debt?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: orangeman on February 25, 2009, 07:25:52 PM
I think where he was coming from mainly was that the cost base here is too high, everything is too expensive, so write everything down and start again.

Easier said than done.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Rossfan on February 25, 2009, 07:28:17 PM
Quote from: carribbear on February 25, 2009, 06:52:41 PM
[
4 - How about a first past the post system. .


NO NO NO NO that would return about 90 to 100 BuilderFF TDs . It would also lead to parachuting of candidates like they do in England where some buck from Surrey represents someplace he's never even seen in Cumbria or the likes.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: tyronefan on February 25, 2009, 07:42:17 PM
Quote from: orangeman on February 25, 2009, 06:45:54 PM

4. Overhaul the political system incl the number of TDs, their wages and the way they are elected.


we have a way too many td,s in this country

there is one for every 25000 people or every 18000 voters here in Ireland. In the US they have a senator/congressperson for every 500000 people
and our td's are near enough earning the same money as the yanks when you take everything into account, as a matter of fact Cowen is earning more that Obama

I believe we could easily cut the numbers in halve and not affect the running of the country

do we need all these chancers sitting in dublin doing nothing
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: armaghniac on February 25, 2009, 07:46:24 PM
The population has increased quite a bit since the present number of TDs was established. A more concrete action would be to trim the number of junior ministers and their car pool. Why should a minister get driven to work. When they are there you could have a pool of cars if required.

A mark down of 10% is the right idea, however things like electricity prices are not independent of intl markets.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: tyronefan on February 25, 2009, 07:50:06 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on February 25, 2009, 07:46:24 PM
The population has increased quite a bit since the present number of TDs was established. A more concrete action would be to trim the number of junior ministers and their car pool. Why should a minister get driven to work. When they are there you could have a pool of cars if required.

A mark down of 10% is the right idea, however things like electricity prices are not independent of intl markets.
i know  that means it used to be worse  these are the current ratios
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: ludermor on February 25, 2009, 08:11:15 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on February 25, 2009, 06:33:15 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on February 25, 2009, 12:50:33 PM
Dole is too high .

So what can of a life can YOU have on €204.00 per week. Be grand if you could live on fresh air.
Its not just the 204 , its all the add ons, I know people at home on the dole, getting rent allowance ( 600 would get you a 4 bed house) and all the benefits ( medical card , child allowance , back to school etc).
One of my mates moved home after working in dublin for years. He couldnt get work as a builder so he stayed at home minding the kids while the wife got relocated to a bank. He never claimed dole ( not sure why) so they were living off her wages ( normal wage) but when his wife got sick they had to seek welfare. When they went in to the officer he told them they were fools to be living on what they had been and they would have been 200 euro a month better off on the dole. It was a eye opener
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: carribbear on February 25, 2009, 08:56:13 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on February 25, 2009, 07:28:17 PM
Quote from: carribbear on February 25, 2009, 06:52:41 PM
[
4 - How about a first past the post system. .


NO NO NO NO that would return about 90 to 100 BuilderFF TDs . It would also lead to parachuting of candidates like they do in England where some buck from Surrey represents someplace he's never even seen in Cumbria or the likes.

I'm not sure if it would. The current system is stagnant, you get the same heads elected time after time for doing sod all. Problem with politics is that people have not woken up to the fact that their public representative should be addressing their concerns in their own areas and securing faciliites for their communities. If they don't have someone who is doing the groundwork in their area are they as likely to vote them in next time around?
The current system is flawed, im sure every constituency has one TD they don't hear tell of for 4 years at a time. It's these folk that need to go. Do you think the political parties would be complacent if there was a real battle to keep their jobs. Do you think incompetence would be tolerated?
I agree these "junior" positions should be scrapped - best way to do it is for all ministers to take responsibility for their portfolio. Mini-elections on how well a minister is doing on health/education/tourism/foreign affairs etc....the problem in the country has been the lack of accountability and because no-one has been made hang for making a balls of things they continue to let things slide. If reputations/jobs were on the line wouldn't you think people would do the jobs they are well paid to do? At least that way you can weed out the crap politicians from the ones who really want to make a difference.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Lecale2 on February 25, 2009, 09:17:28 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on February 25, 2009, 06:33:15 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on February 25, 2009, 12:50:33 PM
Dole is too high .

So what can of a life can YOU have on €204.00 per week. Be grand if you could live on fresh air.

It better than in the North or in Poland! In the North it about £65. Big difference and there's evidence that lads in Strabane are heading to Lifford to sign on. Why not? Easy money.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: pintsofguinness on February 25, 2009, 09:35:06 PM
The north is 50 quid per week.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on February 25, 2009, 10:29:44 PM
Do people think that perhaps in order to get the dole people should be made to participate in public works projects?  There's no point in pretending that those on the dole are available and actively seeking work (cos there isn't any and won't be for a long time), so what do you all think?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: pintsofguinness on February 25, 2009, 10:30:19 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on February 25, 2009, 10:29:44 PM
Do people think that perhaps in order to get the dole people should be made to participate in public works projects?  There's no point in pretending that those on the dole are available and actively seeking work (cos there isn't any and won't be for a long time), so what do you all think?

Yes, definitley. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: An Gaeilgoir on February 26, 2009, 11:28:40 AM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on February 25, 2009, 10:30:19 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on February 25, 2009, 10:29:44 PM
Do people think that perhaps in order to get the dole people should be made to participate in public works projects?  There's no point in pretending that those on the dole are available and actively seeking work (cos there isn't any and won't be for a long time), so what do you all think?

Yes, definitley. 

It would be great, but there are too many "bleeding hearts" in this country for that to happen.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on February 26, 2009, 11:56:28 AM
Folks

This country is Donald Ducked:

Citigroup has cut both AIB and BOI from "hold" to "sell" status.Fraud Squad storming into anglo while these two jokers go down the pan. AIB and BOI are in far worse shape than even Anglo but the public's infatuation with Anglo is clouding everyone's judgement.BoI now officially in the toilet ...lowest ever level. AIB also now in race to the bottom

At this rate, my house will be worth more than both of them combined "

Fair play to ya Frank...pint on the counter in Citywest and champers on ice in Mary "The Lunatic" 's room.  (All on the Dail credit card of course  - in the national interest)

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Roger on February 26, 2009, 12:14:41 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on February 25, 2009, 10:29:44 PM
Do people think that perhaps in order to get the dole people should be made to participate in public works projects?  There's no point in pretending that those on the dole are available and actively seeking work (cos there isn't any and won't be for a long time), so what do you all think?
Is that enforceable never mind managable? I would seriously doubt it but I like the idea.  It would be good for the country and actually the individuals who are unemployed too.

Good thread btw.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Lecale2 on February 26, 2009, 12:34:55 PM
Quote from: Roger on February 26, 2009, 12:14:41 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on February 25, 2009, 10:29:44 PM
Do people think that perhaps in order to get the dole people should be made to participate in public works projects?  There's no point in pretending that those on the dole are available and actively seeking work (cos there isn't any and won't be for a long time), so what do you all think?
Is that enforceable never mind managable? I would seriously doubt it but I like the idea.  It would be good for the country and actually the individuals who are unemployed too.

Good thread btw.


Just call it a training course.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Roger on February 26, 2009, 01:22:28 PM
Quote from: Lecale2 on February 26, 2009, 12:34:55 PM
Just call it a training course.
I think if I was unemployed (there but for the Grace of God go I etc) and the outlook was bleak, I would probably volunteer for something like that.  It would keep the motivation going but more importantly it would keep continuation of my CV going and present a positive when paid employment opportunities arise.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Rois on February 26, 2009, 02:22:09 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on February 25, 2009, 10:29:44 PM
Do people think that perhaps in order to get the dole people should be made to participate in public works projects?  There's no point in pretending that those on the dole are available and actively seeking work (cos there isn't any and won't be for a long time), so what do you all think?


Does anyone in the North remember Enterprise Ulster - I think it did something like that.  I remember seeing bus shelters being made by those on that programme?  It doesn't exist any more but it sounds like what you're suggesting.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on February 26, 2009, 02:23:04 PM
Quote from: Roger on February 26, 2009, 01:22:28 PM
Quote from: Lecale2 on February 26, 2009, 12:34:55 PM
Just call it a training course.
I think if I was unemployed (there but for the Grace of God go I etc) and the outlook was bleak, I would probably volunteer for something like that.  It would keep the motivation going but more importantly it would keep continuation of my CV going and present a positive when paid employment opportunities arise.
Same here and hopefully it would result in the construction of some positive infrastructure.  

It's not legally enforceable in any way obviously, but perhaps if a premium of say €100 per week was thrown in then people would volunteer to join in?  (imo dole will be cut soon regardless of whether we want it to be or not).
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on February 26, 2009, 02:28:33 PM
Quote from: Rois on February 26, 2009, 02:22:09 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on February 25, 2009, 10:29:44 PM
Do people think that perhaps in order to get the dole people should be made to participate in public works projects?  There's no point in pretending that those on the dole are available and actively seeking work (cos there isn't any and won't be for a long time), so what do you all think?


Does anyone in the North remember Enterprise Ulster - I think it did something like that.  I remember seeing bus shelters being made by those on that programme?  It doesn't exist any more but it sounds like what you're suggesting.
Vaguely remember it, but yeah, something like that only on a grander scale, we could always have a squad to go painting the houses and cleaning the windows for old dears and so on could be thrown in too. 

Since all the new unemployed have certain skills, basically allocate jobs and projects according to the skills they have and the skills they want.  In common with many on here I'm not looking at this from a position of total job security, so I could be out sorting out a new wind turbine in a few months time :o
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: the Deel Rover on February 26, 2009, 02:41:39 PM
ECB head praises govt handling of economic crisis

Independent
Thursday February 26 2009

The President of the European Central Bank has praised the Irish Government for its handling of the recession.

Speaking in Dublin today, Jean-Claude Trichet said the Government was acting resolutely to address the situation it found itself in.

He said he was optimistic about Ireland's chances of weathering the economic storm and believed the Government was taking the right action by cutting spending and moderating wages.

Mr Trichet also warned that Ireland was facing severe challenges in the coming years and that further hard decisions would have to be taken.

He said he would like to see more wage restraint and less regulation and believed Ireland was well-placed to benefit from an eventual recovery in the global economy.



??? ??? what does he mean by this . Surely if the banks were more regulated we wouldn't be in as much sh*t as we are now  as the government would not have had to bail out any of the baks
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Roger on February 26, 2009, 02:45:29 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on February 26, 2009, 02:23:04 PM
Same here and hopefully it would result in the construction of some positive infrastructure.  
Private Sector construction companies would feel the pinch further though and couldn't be competitive against cheap labour like that.  It's a difficult one to manage.

Title: The recession explained.
Post by: armaghniac on February 26, 2009, 02:50:21 PM
Heidi is the proprietor of a bar in Berlin. In order to increase sales, she decides to allow her loyal customers - most of whom are unemployed
alcoholics - to drink now but pay later. She keeps track of the drinks consumed on a ledger (thereby granting the customers loans).

Word gets around and as a result increasing numbers of customers flood Into Heidi's bar.

Taking advantage of her customers' freedom from immediate payment
constraints, Heidi increases her prices for wine and beer, the most-consumed beverages. Her sales volume increases massively.

A young and dynamic customer service consultant at the local bank recognizes these customer debts as valuable future assets and increases Heidi's borrowing limit.

He sees no reason for undue concern since he has the debts of the alcoholics as collateral.

At the bank's corporate headquarters, expert bankers transform these customer assets into DRINKBONDS, ALKBONDS and PUKEBONDS. These securities are then traded on markets worldwide. No one really understands what these abbreviations mean and how the securities are guaranteed.

Nevertheless, as their prices continuously climb, the securities become top-selling items.

One day, although the prices are still climbing, a risk manager (subsequently of course fired due his negativity) of the bank decides that slowly the time has come to demand payment of the debts incurred by the drinkers at Heidi's bar.

However they cannot pay back the debts.

Heidi cannot fulfill her loan obligations and claims bankruptcy.

DRINKBOND and ALKBOND drop in price by 95 %. PUKEBOND performs better stabilizing in price after dropping by 80 %.

The suppliers of Heidi's bar, having granted her generous payment due dates and having invested in the securities are faced with a new situation.

Her wine supplier claims bankruptcy, her beer supplier is taken over by a competitor.

The bank is saved by the Government following dramatic round-the-clock consultations by leaders from the governing political parties.

The funds required for this purpose are obtained by a tax levied on the non-drinkers.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Orior on February 26, 2009, 03:26:24 PM
Alternatively.....

A man visits the jungle and asks a tribe to collect monkeys for which he pays £10 each. The tribe round up as many as possible and the man hands over the money and takes the monkeys.

A year later he visits again asking for more monkeys. As there is less about he pays £20 per monkey.

Another year later he visits again, there's even less monkeys in the jungle, so he pays £30 per monkey.

One more year later he visits the tribe again, and offers £50 per monkey. Unfortunately he has to dash off, but leaves his deputy to collect the monkeys and to pay out the money. But the tribe cant find any monkeys and are in despair. The deputy has an idea and suggests that he sells some of the monkeys caught previously back to the tribe for £30, and then they can sell them back to him for £50.

So the tribe collect all their money to buy as many monkeys as possible and hand the money over to the deputy. The deputy takes the money, leaves and is never seen again.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on February 26, 2009, 03:44:26 PM
There is a mechanism that has never been used; Brussels has a huge unpatrolled sea border that is facilitating the importation of billions of illegal drugs, the effects of which cost billions (trillions?) to remedy.

So, as Ireland is the most westerly country,  they should nominate Ireland as the preferred base for the European Seals Patrol, establish a base in each of the coastal counties for rapid response and set-up shipbuilding facilities in Arklow, Killybegs, Galway, Foynes and Cork  (and Belfast to shut them up..).  A new rail network would be built to ferry materials between the Centres of Excellence ( Cost from EU = €10bn, frontloaded needless to say )

Everyone on the dole would be conscripted to work on building the facilities –  still keep their dole – and be paid 400,000 x €50,000 . ( Cost from EU =€20bn)

A fleet of 50 craft would be required, these would take 3 years to build and by that time all this would have blown over. 

10 craft would be sunk each year using Asgard technology – to ensure continuous use of the facilities full employment
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Roger on February 26, 2009, 04:51:23 PM
Quote from: Declan on February 26, 2009, 03:44:26 PM
(and Belfast to shut them up..)

:D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Main Street on February 26, 2009, 05:33:45 PM
Quote from: Gnevin on February 25, 2009, 07:19:59 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on February 25, 2009, 07:16:47 PM
Quote from: orangeman on February 25, 2009, 06:45:54 PM
Did any of you read a letter from a reade in Leitrim in the Independent giving his "recovery plan" for the economy ???

2. Reduce the mortgages of those homeowners in negative equity down to the current value of their homes and reduce all mortgages / remortgages taken out cince 2005 by 10%.

What downright complete bullshit.
Argeed , the solution to toxic debt is to write 10% off mortgages and create more toxic debt?
Nonsense,
how does writing off part of a debt create more toxic debt?
It doesn't, it becomes toxic waste.

The mortgage is toxic to begin with because of a number of factors, the first time housebuyer is only one of those factors.

A company debt has limited liability.
A company has debt, too much debt, bank says ah sure lets talk about it, how about we let 50% of it drop but keep it on the books so it's still an asset and the Government buys in and pays up for the value of the asset.
If not, then we will just regard it as written off. The taxpayer might moan a bit but they are too busy moaning about easier targets, the scroungers, marchers, unions and any possible mortgage relief for first time house buyers. 

A first time house owner has no liability.
Can't make the mortgage, bank takes it over and proceeds to sell it for 1/2 the value of the mortgage
Bank will not negotiate with defaulted house owner. Bank would rather take a 50% hit than negotiate a 10% or 20% reduction in the mortgage.
When the best situation for everybody,  the lender, the defaulter and the taxpayer is that the first time buyer is still able to manage rational repayments.

No wonder the taxpayers earnings are being screwed.
When it comes to the toxic debt of lower income groups, the unemployed, the homeless,  most here are in full lynch mob agreement on how the screws should be tightened further on them to save a small % of what is being spent to bail out the toxic debt of speculators and gamblers by their political stool pigeons.



Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on February 26, 2009, 05:44:07 PM
Quote from: Declan on February 26, 2009, 11:56:28 AM
Folks

This country is Donald Ducked:

Citigroup has cut both AIB and BOI from "hold" to "sell" status.Fraud Squad storming into anglo while these two jokers go down the pan. AIB and BOI are in far worse shape than even Anglo but the public's infatuation with Anglo is clouding everyone's judgement.BoI now officially in the toilet ...lowest ever level. AIB also now in race to the bottom

At this rate, my house will be worth more than both of them combined "

Fair play to ya Frank...pint on the counter in Citywest and champers on ice in Mary "The Lunatic" 's room.  (All on the Dail credit card of course  - in the national interest)



Citigroup have taken $45 Billion in state aid themselves and look like needing a lot more.

Here (http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chdet=1235682000000&chddm=137412&q=NYSE:C&ntsp=0) is their stock price over the last year or so.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Lecale2 on February 26, 2009, 10:29:56 PM
Has anyone else seen this? Unbelievable!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1lmuqy6G_E (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1lmuqy6G_E)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on February 27, 2009, 09:38:07 AM
Friday February 27 2009
THE best was saved for last. That's when Fianna Fail TD Frank Fahey earned the Order of the Brown Nose for telling Finance Minister Brian Lenihan what a fantastic job he had done since taking office.
After three hours in which Mr Lenihan catalogued a freak show of failure and incompetence involving the Government, the banks et al, Fahey's input would have shamed an Oscar winner.
Never mind the car-crash public finances, the ruptured housing market, the sickly banking system and lengthening dole queues, Mr Fahey said he wanted to thank Mr Lenihan for his superbly "competent performance since he became finance minister".
Being a backbench Fianna Fail TD must be utopian but, thankfully, Mr Lenihan knows most people live on Earth so he was ready for sterner stuff at the Oireachtas Committee on Finance and Public Service. The Usual Suspects were waiting.
Fine Gael's Richard Bruton, Labour's Joan Burton and TDs and Senators including Shane Ross were ready with questions on Anglo Irish Bank and recapitalisation.
The minister began the meeting by trying to cut it short. Mr Interest Rates, aka Jean Claude Trichet of the European Central Bank, was in Dublin and, Mr Lenihan asked, would it be okay to leave early to meet him.
No, said Fine Gael.
"I don't believe it would be serving the country's interests if we suspended our critical faculties," said Richard Bruton firmly. One of the few politicians with a solid grasp of his financials, Mr Bruton soon elicited the disclosure that the bank guarantee scheme is to be extended beyond 2010.
Mr Lenihan then mangled the old bolting horse cliche. "We are trying to bolt a stable door clearly after the horse has gone a bit unruly," he offered.
"More like a casino door," roared Joan Burton. "Because some of those involved in banking and speculation were treating Ireland as a casino."
One was Sean FitzPatrick, the former chairman of Anglo Irish, who was shown the door in November after asking Mr Lenihan to merge his rotting bank with Irish Nationwide.
Mr Lenihan took his time over this story, and his voice slowed as he savoured the last titbit: "I understand he (FitzPatrick) did not think highly of our approach."
Then attention turned to Richie Boucher, the former head of Bank of Ireland's Irish operations and now chief-executive elect. He was most definitely not the top pick.
How did we know? The minister himself revealed an outside candidate was considered but was not interested. It was hard, he added, to find suitable people. "I'm not qualified to pick a chief executive of a bank," he pleaded.
But now he was qualified to state Mr Boucher was the "best candidate" who would bring a "fresh dynamic" to the bank.
Senator Ross was beside himself. "Second best," he taunted. "This is no outsider," Ross continued. "You've got a guy who is the quintessential insider."
At 12.15pm it was over and time for Mr Lenihan to head for his rendezvous with Monsieur Trichet. His answers may not have pleased everyone but at least he had Frank Fahey.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Billys Boots on February 27, 2009, 09:59:52 AM
Quote from: Declan on February 26, 2009, 03:44:26 PM
There is a mechanism that has never been used; Brussels has a huge unpatrolled sea border that is facilitating the importation of billions of illegal drugs, the effects of which cost billions (trillions?) to remedy.

So, as Ireland is the most westerly country,  they should nominate Ireland as the preferred base for the European Seals Patrol, establish a base in each of the coastal counties for rapid response and set-up shipbuilding facilities in Arklow, Killybegs, Galway, Foynes and Cork  (and Belfast to shut them up..).  A new rail network would be built to ferry materials between the Centres of Excellence ( Cost from EU = €10bn, frontloaded needless to say )

Everyone on the dole would be conscripted to work on building the facilities –  still keep their dole – and be paid 400,000 x €50,000 . ( Cost from EU =€20bn)

A fleet of 50 craft would be required, these would take 3 years to build and by that time all this would have blown over. 

10 craft would be sunk each year using Asgard technology – to ensure continuous use of the facilities full employment

The further I got into this, the more I was reminded of 'Yes Minister'; good man Dec.  I needed a smirk today. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Zapatista on February 27, 2009, 10:15:58 AM
Joan Burton :D
She should have let Brian leave as she has done.

She called a public meeting in my area last year. The meeting was about 'anti-socail behaviour & criminality'. There had been two stabbings in the area shortly beforehand. She had her posters up for weeks before and a good crowd gathered for the meeting. She started the meeting with the usual self congratulations and spelt out the importance of the meeting. After she give her introduction she announced that she could not stay for questions as she had been invited to do rte Q&A. We were left in the capable hands of Pat Rabbite and a local low level Labour activist, our TD gone. The local activist barely contributed and Pat (who arrived in his Chauffeur driven Merc) spent 15 minutes reading crime statistics he must have googled before he arrived. Those attending the meeting left as confused as they arrived.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on February 27, 2009, 11:11:20 AM
German Chancellor Angela Merkel yesterday suggested that assistance may have to be given to certain countries experiencing economic difficulties and explicitly made reference to Ireland. German officials are reportedly brainstorming on possible mechanisms to bailout ailing economies. An official Berlin source quoted anonymously in the Irish Times today stated that "One has to speak honestly and openly with each other in discussions about individual measures for instances taxes". As suggested earlier in the week, any bailout from the EU or an EU member state would be conditional on fiscal prudence and that Ireland's corporate tax rate would likely become a target.

• The loss of the low corporate tax rate would have dire consequences for Ireland's ability to attract world class multinationals with the cost base still 20% above 26 trade partners. This would damage job and growth prospects into the future. Ireland needs to sort out its fiscal house or face the possibility of losing independence on setting tax rates and consequently damaging the economy further.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Zapatista on February 27, 2009, 11:14:41 AM
Check out my signature ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Hardy on February 27, 2009, 02:16:05 PM
Quote from: Billys Boots on February 27, 2009, 09:59:52 AM
Quote from: Declan on February 26, 2009, 03:44:26 PM
There is a mechanism that has never been used; Brussels has a huge unpatrolled sea border that is facilitating the importation of billions of illegal drugs, the effects of which cost billions (trillions?) to remedy.

So, as Ireland is the most westerly country,  they should nominate Ireland as the preferred base for the European Seals Patrol, establish a base in each of the coastal counties for rapid response and set-up shipbuilding facilities in Arklow, Killybegs, Galway, Foynes and Cork  (and Belfast to shut them up..).  A new rail network would be built to ferry materials between the Centres of Excellence ( Cost from EU = €10bn, frontloaded needless to say )

Everyone on the dole would be conscripted to work on building the facilities –  still keep their dole – and be paid 400,000 x €50,000 . ( Cost from EU =€20bn)

A fleet of 50 craft would be required, these would take 3 years to build and by that time all this would have blown over. 

10 craft would be sunk each year using Asgard technology – to ensure continuous use of the facilities full employment

The further I got into this, the more I was reminded of 'Yes Minister'; good man Dec.  I needed a smirk today. 

Yes - meant to say I enjoyed that.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Rossfan on February 27, 2009, 07:00:14 PM
Quote from: Declan on February 27, 2009, 11:11:20 AM
"One has to speak honestly and openly with each other.


That's us fcuked so as our leaders  are just simply  incapable of expressing one single truth . >:(
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: FermGael on March 02, 2009, 10:00:00 AM
Articlle from the telegraph.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/4864532/Breaking-point-for-the-eurozone.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/4864532/Breaking-point-for-the-eurozone.html)

QuoteThey can barely let the words pass their lips, but some of the EU's most important policymakers were forced this week to discuss what was once unthinkable: that at least one of the 16 eurozone countries might be on the brink of ditching the single currency.

Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, admitted that the 10-year-old eurozone was under "extreme strain", with weaker countries struggling to keep their economies afloat in the face of the devaluation of other currencies, such as sterling and the dollar.

Joschka Fischer, Germany's former foreign minister, darkly suggested that we would soon find out whether the eurozone would turn out to be "a disaster", while the German finance ministry is vacillating on whether it would be prepared to bail out insolvent states.

The current thinking is that Germany and France, as the strongest economies in the zone and "lenders of last resort", would have to bail out failing states: the prospect of the eurozone breaking up would bring the future of the EU into question.

But the most startling fact to emerge this week is that the country which is seen as the most vulnerable, and therefore the most likely to ditch the euro, is not Slovenia, or Cyprus, or Greece, but Ireland.

Until a year ago, the Republic's Celtic Tiger economy, which attracted such blue-chip companies as Dell, Microsoft and Intel, seemed unstoppable. In a decade, the Irish economy grew by almost 90 per cent, catapulting it from one of the poorest countries in Europe to the fourth-richest per capita. Government advisers from as far afield as Chile and Israel made pilgrimages to marvel at a model that they were desperate to emulate.

Not any more. All of a sudden, Ireland's debt-fuelled economy, built largely on a construction boom, has collapsed in a more spectacular manner than almost any other in Europe. Irish government bonds are rated as the riskiest in the EU (see graphic), and there has been panicky talk of Ireland as "the next Iceland".

On the streets, there is a whiff of revolution, with 120,000 people staging Dublin's biggest mass rally in 30 years last weekend to protest at the government's handling of the economy and its decision to impose what amounted to a pay cut on public sector workers. The unions have now threatened a "Doomsday" strike next month if the prime minister, Brian Cowen, does not think again. As the celebrated Irish economist David McWilliams put it: "The entire Irish episode will be studied internationally in years to come as an example of how not to do things."

So how did it all go so wrong?

Visiting Dublin this week, I took a stroll down the south bank of the River Liffey, to the site where Ireland's tallest building, the U2 Tower, should by now have been rising out of the ground as the ultimate symbol of the Celtic Tiger's "economic miracle". Designed by Lord Foster, the
60-storey glass skyscraper was to have housed dozens of one-million euro apartments (£1 million), topped by a penthouse recording studio for Ireland's most successful band.

Instead, there was nothing to see but dead grass, crushed beer cans and a rusting skip inhabited by 3ft weeds. Two months ago, the developers postponed the project indefinitely. This scruffy patch of former dockland represents the end of the dream for Ireland, whose "economic miracle" was largely based on a crazy construction bubble, fuelled by tax incentives, which, when it finally (and inevitably) burst, created a black hole that threatens to suck in the rest of the failing economy.

In 2006, Ireland (population 4.2 million) built 88,000 houses, compared with 150,000 in the UK (population 60 million). At one point, a fifth of the workforce, swelled by tens of thousands of immigrants, worked in construction.

Irish families on middle and even low incomes cashed in their pensions or borrowed heavily to buy second, third or even fourth properties, believing they could rent them out to the migrant workers who had caused net immigration for the first time in Ireland's history. They could borrow from banks that enjoyed one of the loosest regulatory regimes in Europe, and which shipped in money from abroad to further stoke up the boom.

Ireland now has up to 350,000 empty homes – more than its entire private rental market – many of them simply abandoned as builders went bust. House prices are expected to fall by 80 per cent.

Ireland might have been able to withstand Europe's most savage property collapse had not its export trade been shredded at the same by currency devaluation in its two key markets – Britain and America.

The relative rise in the value of the euro against sterling and the dollar has made Irish goods – and wages – prohibitively expensive. Businesses in the north of the Republic are on their knees because competitors in Northern Ireland are undercutting them by as much as half.

In an ominous sign of things to come, the computer firm Dell has announced 250 redundancies at its plant in Limerick, simultaneously confirming that it intends to create thousands of new jobs in Poland.

The slump in the Irish job market means that the country's youth, who for years now have been able to find jobs at home, are once again having to look abroad for employment, so that the Republic may soon return to its traditional pattern of net outward migration. Already, large numbers of Irish workers are moving to Britain seeking work.

Crucially, the Irish government is powerless to act because, as a member of the eurozone, it has no control over interest rates or currency devaluation.

While the Bank of England could cut interest rates to one per cent and plans to devalue sterling with "quantitative easing", the Irish have had to resort to desperate measures to reduce their budget deficit, such as the public sector wage cuts which led to the mass demonstrations.

Evidence of the effect on Ireland's real economy, as unemployment heads towards 10 per cent, is everywhere.

In Dublin's docklands, once expected to become a sort of European Dubai, row upon row of kitchen suppliers, interior design and furniture shops have closed since my last visit nine months ago, their windows covered in a thick layer of grime.

Catherine Claffey, whose family have sold flowers at the same pitch in Grafton Street, a few yards from Chanel and Louis Vuitton, for 85 years, told me business was down 60 per cent on last year.

"I've only been able to keep going because I've never taken out any big loans," she said. "But I have friends earning very modest salaries in the public sector who have been told their wages are going to be cut by 500 euros a month. How are they going to survive?"

A hundred yards down the road, a group of taxi drivers was staging a noisy protest over the government's failure to manage taxi numbers. Thousands of workers who have lost their jobs in other sectors have been allowed to set up as cabbies, meaning that Dublin now has 16,000 licensed taxis. New York, with a population 17 times as large, has 13,000.

Andy Doyle, a cabbie for 20 years, said: "There are so many taxis now that you can be waiting two-and-a-half hours on a rank before you pick up a fare. Yesterday I waited an hour and three quarters for a 6.20 euro fare. You just can't live on that. But the government is happy to let it go on because it keeps the unemployment figures down. It's madness."

The resounding "No" vote in last year's referendum on the European Constitution suggested that Ireland has finally fallen out of love with Europe. But will it now take the ultimate step and ditch the euro?

Sean Murphy, director of policy at the business organisation Chambers Ireland, believes not.

"Everything positive in the Irish economy for the past 30 years has been driven by our membership of the EU," he said. "In the long term it will continue to benefit us. We have a small, flexible economy, which means we will be able to turn it round much quicker than a bigger economy like the UK's.

"It's become clear that we need a more balanced, diverse economy, with more jobs in things like alternative energy and information technology. I believe our EU membership can only help with that."

But if the Irish economy, and that of other struggling EU states, continues to nosedive, the cohesion of the eurozone is likely to be tested to breaking poin
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: ludermor on March 02, 2009, 10:08:06 AM
You see taxi plates in dublin up to 45,000 these days but you could still be stuck on college green for an hour at 3 in the morning.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Rossfan on March 02, 2009, 06:37:57 PM
-They can barely let the words pass their lips, but some of the EU's most important policymakers were forced this week to discuss what was once unthinkable: that at least one of the 16 eurozone countries might be on the brink of ditching the single currency.-

A fervent unfulfilled wish of many right wing Brits and Yanks. The Euro must be doing something right to get up those sort of noses.
Only for we're in the Euro we'd be in some state now.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on March 02, 2009, 09:01:09 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 02, 2009, 06:37:57 PM
-They can barely let the words pass their lips, but some of the EU's most important policymakers were forced this week to discuss what was once unthinkable: that at least one of the 16 eurozone countries might be on the brink of ditching the single currency.-

A fervent unfulfilled wish of many right wing Brits and Yanks. The Euro must be doing something right to get up those sort of noses.
Only for we're in the Euro we'd be in some state now.



It better not be us. Unless I'm the only one who would be upset at 15% interest rates.

The rumours of the EU bailing us out seem to be growing. We won't have a government then though, no matter who we elect. The public service at that stage would beg for a mere pension levy. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Lecale2 on March 02, 2009, 09:14:39 PM
I really think this is scare mungering but the Trade Unions in particular need to re-adjust to the new conditions the country finds itself in. FF and the Greens have been awful at getting their message across and Labour & Fine Gael have said nothing constructive.

We really need a new Tallaght Strategy but I don't think our current lot are up to it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on March 02, 2009, 09:36:41 PM
there's an awful lot of truth in the article, but you can see the slant the torygraph journo is putting on it, it'd have us all wearing the green jersey just to shut the fcuker up.  As for us leaving the euro, not a chance, as has been said by most of us here, it's the only thing currently saving us.  As to the reality or otherwise of an EU bailout, I do think it will happen in some form or other, and Muppet's right, a levy will be the least of the public sectors worries then. 
Something I read over weekend pointed out that whilst the unions are fond of pointing out about how great the swedish banking model was, they rarely mention that the swedish public sector took a 20% salary cut at the same time.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on March 02, 2009, 09:39:38 PM
Quote from: Lecale2 on March 02, 2009, 09:14:39 PM
I really think this is scare mungering but the Trade Unions in particular need to re-adjust to the new conditions the country finds itself in. FF and the Greens have been awful at getting their message across and Labour & Fine Gael have said nothing constructive.

We really need a new Tallaght Strategy but I don't think our current lot are up to it.

The problem with the Tallaght strategy is that the country turfed Dukes out after it.

Don't expect politicians to think non-politically.



Our Government need to start telling us exactly how bad this is as quickly as possibly.

All last year anyone who said things were bad, according to Cowen, were guilty 'of taking down the economy'. Then the government attack the public service for getting upset with draconian measures and levies. Things aren't to bad on one hand but we are implementing severe pain on the other.

I accept that the union leaders have also let the side down as they would know how bad things are from the Partnership talks. But realistically it is the Government's job, not ICTUs, to tell us the real state of the economy and what needs to be done.

Mary Harney told us all to "shop around" if we thought shops were ripping us off. Now that people go across the border it is "unpatriotic". Mixed messages again from the Government.

We hear rumblings from Europe about a crisis in Ireland and the Eurozone protecting weaker countries yet no one here knows what that means and none of our politicians are explaining it to us. More confusion.

Saving Anglo was completely necessary to prevent, not just our banking sector, but the other foreign banks based here. However Lenihan claims he knew nothing of the €7 Billion loan to Anglo while the ink was still drying on the Bank Guarantee.

It's time these muppets started telling us the real situtation or we will fall a lot futher due to self inflicted pain.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Lecale2 on March 03, 2009, 09:36:15 AM
Now it's the Credit Union in trouble. Is there no end to this?

http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0303/creditunion.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0303/creditunion.html)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: full back on March 03, 2009, 09:50:37 AM
Quote from: Lecale2 on March 03, 2009, 09:36:15 AM
Now it's the Credit Union in trouble. Is there no end to this?

http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0303/creditunion.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0303/creditunion.html)

Not good news
How would the rest of the countries Credit Unions be fixed?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: orangeman on March 03, 2009, 10:38:20 AM
I'd say most of them are safe enough - they're fairly well managed and no real big loans have been shelled out unlike the Prebyterian Mutual who was throwing out massive loans.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on March 03, 2009, 01:38:30 PM
FT.com (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/427852d8-07d8-11de-8a33-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1)

Looks like any bailout for Ireland will come from the EU and not the IMF.

That would suggest higher taxes all round including Corporate Tax. So much for voting no to Lisbon, it won't matter if we have to go cap in hand.

Those were the days, when Irish politics was all about securing money from Europe and then spending it on roads to Castlebar.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: armaghniac on March 03, 2009, 01:45:15 PM
The Corporation tax thing should help concentrate minds. Which is it to be, a property tax the same as most everywhere else in Europe or a corporation tax rate the same as most everywhere else in Europe?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Hound on March 03, 2009, 01:57:25 PM
CT will be the last tax to be increased. An increase in the rate would result in a reduction in the tax take, so it ain't going to happen this side of any recovery.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on March 03, 2009, 02:04:13 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on March 03, 2009, 01:45:15 PM
The Corporation tax thing should help concentrate minds. Which is it to be, a property tax the same as most everywhere else in Europe or a corporation tax rate the same as most everywhere else in Europe?

armaghniac we have a property tax. It's called Stamp Duty and it paid for the last decade's worth of public services.
Title: Ouch!!
Post by: armaghniac on March 03, 2009, 02:06:19 PM
from Indo article  on Davy economic report

"The broker has also updated its macro-forecasts following a virtual collapse in global trade since its last projections in December.

"We now expect the volume of Irish gross national product (GNP) to shrink by 7pc this year (previously -4.1pc) and 4.4pc next year (previously -0.5pc), thanks in a large part to significant downgrades to our export forecast." But Mr White added that the country's main task is to stop the rise in the budget deficit with austere measures required immediately."

Ouch! That's an additional 7% (3% this year +4% next year) wiped off the economy by the end of 2010 since the last prediction in December, this is largely due to world circumstances as trade has fallen. It is going to be quite a bit worse, are people ready for this?  

Quotearmaghniac we have a property tax. It's called Stamp Duty and it paid for the last decade's worth of public services.

In the future we need less stamp duty and more regular annual tax, so that it doesn't go up and down suddenly.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on March 03, 2009, 02:23:48 PM
QuoteIn the future we need less stamp duty and more regular annual tax, so that it doesn't go up and down suddenly

If you introduce an annual property tax there wont be any Stamp Duty for a long time, not that the signs are good anyway. Landlords will pass it on to tenants who will join owner/occupiers as the only people paying for such a tax. The Land League is why we don't have such a tax nowadays in Ireland and I am amazed we want to go back to that.

Some of the massive Stamp Duty raised over the years was used to increase public spending with no gain in efficiency or productivity in return. Now that source has dried up public spending needs to be curbed, not new scams to keep feeding wasteful public finances.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: bcarrier on March 03, 2009, 03:29:51 PM
There is also VAT on new build housing in Ireland ( none in Uk) .
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: orangeman on March 03, 2009, 03:50:36 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 03, 2009, 01:38:30 PM
FT.com (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/427852d8-07d8-11de-8a33-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1)

Looks like any bailout for Ireland will come from the EU and not the IMF.

That would suggest higher taxes all round including Corporate Tax. So much for voting no to Lisbon, it won't matter if we have to go cap in hand.

Those were the days, when Irish politics was all about securing money from Europe and then spending it on roads to Castlebar.
[/b]

Eaten bread is soon forgotten !
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Zapatista on March 03, 2009, 04:22:07 PM
Quote from: orangeman on March 03, 2009, 03:50:36 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 03, 2009, 01:38:30 PM
FT.com (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/427852d8-07d8-11de-8a33-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1)

Looks like any bailout for Ireland will come from the EU and not the IMF.

That would suggest higher taxes all round including Corporate Tax. So much for voting no to Lisbon, it won't matter if we have to go cap in hand.

Those were the days, when Irish politics was all about securing money from Europe and then spending it on roads to Castlebar.
[/b]

Eaten bread is soon forgotten !

It was never about securing money from Europe. Europe got it's share.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: armaghniac on March 03, 2009, 04:35:52 PM
QuoteThe Land League is why we don't have such a tax nowadays in Ireland and I am amazed we want to go back to that.

There were rates for 100 years after the Land League. The 6 counties has rates and it doesn't seem to have caused social decline, why are we different from other countries in this respect? Mind you water should be charged for directly, rather than as a tax.

Quote
Some of the massive Stamp Duty raised over the years was used to increase public spending with no gain in efficiency or productivity in return. Now that source has dried up public spending needs to be curbed, not new scams to keep feeding wasteful public finances.

Some of it was used to increase public sector wages to be sure, in part because people needed to be able to buy those expensive houses. Some was used to introduce improved public service provision. But much of it was used to reduce taxes below where they would otherwise be so that 40% of people pay no income tax whatsoever, some tax must be collected from somewhere to make up for this. Unless we totally become a different country then we will have to take in a reasonable proportion of GNP in tax.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on March 03, 2009, 04:41:55 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on March 03, 2009, 04:35:52 PM
QuoteThe Land League is why we don't have such a tax nowadays in Ireland and I am amazed we want to go back to that.

There were rates for 100 years after the Land League. The 6 counties has rates and it doesn't seem to have caused social decline, why are we different from other countries in this respect? Mind you water should be charged for directly, rather than as a tax.

Quote
Some of the massive Stamp Duty raised over the years was used to increase public spending with no gain in efficiency or productivity in return. Now that source has dried up public spending needs to be curbed, not new scams to keep feeding wasteful public finances.

Some of it was used to increase public sector wages to be sure, in part because people needed to be able to buy those expensive houses. Some was used to introduce improved public service provision. But much of it was used to reduce taxes below where they would otherwise be so that 40% of people pay no income tax whatsoever, some tax must be collected from somewhere to make up for this. Unless we totally become a different country then we will have to take in a reasonable proportion of GNP in tax.

Charging for water consumption sounds reasonable. As would scrapping car tax and increasing the excise on fuel.

I think the figure is around 34% of all workers pay no tax, that can't continue especially when most of those are on the streets campaigning for the 6.5% that pay half of all income tax to pay more, to make it equitable.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Zapatista on March 03, 2009, 04:43:03 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on March 03, 2009, 04:35:52 PM
QuoteThe Land League is why we don't have such a tax nowadays in Ireland and I am amazed we want to go back to that.

There were rates for 100 years after the Land League. The 6 counties has rates and it doesn't seem to have caused social decline, why are we different from other countries in this respect? Mind you water should be charged for directly, rather than as a tax.

Quote
Some of the massive Stamp Duty raised over the years was used to increase public spending with no gain in efficiency or productivity in return. Now that source has dried up public spending needs to be curbed, not new scams to keep feeding wasteful public finances.

Some of it was used to increase public sector wages to be sure, in part because people needed to be able to buy those expensive houses. Some was used to introduce improved public service provision. But much of it was used to reduce taxes below where they would otherwise be so that 40% of people pay no income tax whatsoever, some tax must be collected from somewhere to make up for this. Unless we totally become a different country then we will have to take in a reasonable proportion of GNP in tax.

It could come from water charges.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Zapatista on March 03, 2009, 04:44:58 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 03, 2009, 04:41:55 PM
Charging for water consumption sounds reasonable. As would scrapping car tax and increasing the excise on fuel.


Would that not be more of the low base consumer tax which helped us into this situation?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on March 03, 2009, 04:52:14 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on March 03, 2009, 04:44:58 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 03, 2009, 04:41:55 PM
Charging for water consumption sounds reasonable. As would scrapping car tax and increasing the excise on fuel.


Would that not be more of the low base consumer tax which helped us into this situation?

Surley you don't believe that all this happened because we didn't have a property tax?????
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Zapatista on March 03, 2009, 05:07:35 PM
Not at all. We are running around looking for tax increases because our low base intake has led to a huge fall in revenue. It also meant those able to pay more payed the same as those unable to pay. We are venerable to rapid declines because joe bloggs acts with protectionism. If the excise on fuel increases we will just drive less generated no more (or maybe no less). If we had have had a concentration on income tax the tax intake would be more secure but we have concentrated on digital TVs and garden machinery.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on March 03, 2009, 05:24:50 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on March 03, 2009, 05:07:35 PM
Not at all. We are running around looking for tax increases because our low base intake has led to a huge fall in revenue. It also meant those able to pay more payed the same as those unable to pay. We are venerable to rapid declines because joe bloggs acts with protectionism. If the excise on fuel increases we will just drive less generated no more (or maybe no less). If we had have had a concentration on income tax the tax intake would be more secure but we have concentrated on digital TVs and garden machinery.


Those unable to pay paid nothing. 6.5% of workers paid 50% of all income tax. How is that the same?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on March 03, 2009, 05:59:30 PM
http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/exchequerstatements/2009/excheqjan09.pdf (http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/exchequerstatements/2009/excheqjan09.pdf)

Government finances for Jan 2009 compared with Jan 2008. From €4.6B down to €3.7B.

On page 2, the left is the tax take and on the right is the spending of various depts.

Income tax held up but is partially due to the levy and also that the rise in unemployment is only taking off now.

Stamp Duty has collapsed funnily enough. I'd like to see this or any other government tell people who spent €30-40,000 on stamp duty in the last few years, to buy a house that is worth far less than their mortgage, that they now have to pay an annual tax on it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Lecale2 on March 03, 2009, 06:08:43 PM
You're not that keen on the auld property tax then Muppet?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on March 03, 2009, 06:09:57 PM
Irish Times Breaking news (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/0303/breaking57.htm)

Government to raise taxes in emergency Budget move
Related »

    * Exchequer returns show tax revenues under pressure | 03/03/2009

MARK HENNESSY, Political Correspondent and KILIAN DOYLE

Extra taxation is to be imposed in an emergency Budget from the Government by the end of March, following the publication of disastrous tax revenues.

Mr Cowen said the latest Exchequer figures, which show revenue for the first two months of 2009 at €5.7 billion, compared to €7.5 billion for the same period last year, left the country in a "very difficult situation".

The Cabinet today decided that it will action emergency by the end of this month to ensure that its €18 billion borrowing target will not be over-shot.

The February tax figures were "disappointing", the Taoiseach told Fine Gael leader, Enda Kenny during Leaders' Questions in the Dáil. It is "important for the country's credibility" that the Government stick to its borrowing targets for the year, he told Mr Kenny.

Questioned by Labour leader, Eamon Gilmore, Mr Cowen admitted that the actions needed by the end of the month would include extra taxes. "Whatever legislative arrangements are necessary can be made later," said Mr Cowen, adding that the Government will publish a three-year plan shortly.

"We will take whatever steps are necessary to ensure that the framework that we set for ourselves, which is for a 9.5 per cent Government deficit for 2009 would be adhered to," Mr Cowen said. "It's important in terms of the credibility of the country that we do that."

"We will in the coming weeks, before the end of this month, come forward with whatever measures are necessary to do so, either in terms of expenditure savings and/or tax raising".

In December, the Government laid out a five-year strategy to the European Commission to bring Irish finances back under control by 2013.

Mr Kenny said businesses and members of the public were suffering a "crisis of confidence" and called for immediate action. "The problem across country is that nobody can now plan for their future," he said.

Mr Kenny asked the Taoiseach to outline what decisions were taken by the Cabinet earlier today to address the rising Exchequer deficit. "It's time to face the reality ... that our public finances are under extreme pressure." He called for a new Budget that is "fair and comprehensive" to restore people's confidence to invest or spend.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on March 03, 2009, 06:14:18 PM
Quote from: Lecale2 on March 03, 2009, 06:08:43 PM
You're not that keen on the auld property tax then Muppet?

The posters on P.ie are predicting a .75% to 1% property tax announced before the end of the month. That would mean a 3 bed semi in Dublin  worth around €300,000 will cost €3000 p/a.

They are talking about a new income tax rates of 25% and 48% with the higher band being lowered to the low €30K range.

Water charges and increased fuel excise all on the way. Enjoy March.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: armaghniac on March 03, 2009, 06:23:20 PM
QuoteThe posters on P.ie are predicting a .75% to 1% property tax announced before the end of the month. That would mean a 3 bed semi in Dublin  worth around €300,000 will cost €3000 p/a.

They are talking about a new income tax rates of 25% and 48% with the higher band being lowered to the low €30K range.

Water charges and increased fuel excise all on the way. Enjoy March.

Water OK, income tax as expected, although the lower band will have to cut in earlier too. I think they will be careful with the fuel until Gordon Brown sticks a few pence on his. Property tax pretty savage as proposed there and a % of value in a declining market is a hard one to administer. Better to just tax €2 per sq metre. Some of the usual suspects that have been around for years will have to be grasped, like taxing children's allowance
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Rossfan on March 03, 2009, 06:32:51 PM
Of course all the rot started by letting house prices run totally amok ...but sure as long as the Builder cnuts were coining it(and no doubt paying the usual cut to the Builders Party ::)) all was well. Then to keep the pot boiling over Tax incentives were strewn like  confetti to keep the fools(i.e. us) buying overpriced houses. Of course we needed higher wages to pay for them.
There was no effort made to develop any kind of productive economy ..that was left to the transient multi nationals while farming became a EU social welfare thing  and of course we priced ourselves out of the tourism market.
in 1993 an average house(for ordinary people without pretensions) cost about twice an average annual gross middle income.
In 2006 it cost about 7 times the average middle income.
Now loads of people will be unable to undertake  discretionary spending as all their money will be going on oversized mortgages.
So we're basically looking at a stagnant economy unless we start producing something we can sell overseas to get money and jobs circulating again.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: orangeman on March 03, 2009, 06:40:00 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 03, 2009, 06:32:51 PM
Of course all the rot started by letting house prices run totally amok ...but sure as long as the Builder cnuts were coining it(and no doubt paying the usual cut to the Builders Party ::)) all was well. Then to keep the pot boiling over Tax incentives were strewn like  confetti to keep the fools(i.e. us) buying overpriced houses. Of course we needed higher wages to pay for them.
There was no effort made to develop any kind of productive economy ..that was left to the transient multi nationals while farming became a EU social welfare thing  and of course we priced ourselves out of the tourism market.
in 1993 an average house(for ordinary people without pretensions) cost about twice an average annual gross middle income.
In 2006 it cost about 7 times the average middle income.
Now loads of people will be unable to undertake  discretionary spending as all their money will be going on oversized mortgages.
So we're basically looking at a stagnant economy unless we start producing something we can sell overseas to get money and jobs circulating again.

Not going to be easy to do.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on March 03, 2009, 06:44:02 PM
The real problem is that most of this catastrophe in the national finances has been predicted a long time ago. The Government only woke up to it today. How does that happen? How can they be that incompetent?

Is it that they are incapable of seeing beyond the advice of Public Servants who have a slight vested interest in public expenditure?

None of the measures mentioned in the posts above mention cut backs in spending.

Where is the scrapping of the Government jet for example?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Lecale2 on March 03, 2009, 06:44:38 PM
The dogs in the streets knew an emergency budget would be required but Lenihan & Cowan remained in denial.

I have written to Mr Cowan along the following lines:

Dear Teashoch

I am not a crank so please consider my suggestions carefully.

The Government and TDs need to should leadership in times of crisis. Whistling and pretending the bogey man isn't there won't work. Face up to the scale of the problem. Tell the public honestly how bad it is. Then explain how you are going to put things right over the next couple of year.

You first have to forget about winning the next election. You are fecked and have no chance. Do what's right for the good of the Nation for once and forget about the political consequences. There'll alway be a chance to get back in when that tit Kenny fecks things up again.

When you're in a hole you have to stop digging. You and your colleague should stop first. Here's my proposals:

1. Cut in Ministers and TDs salaries of 33%. All allowances frozen. Put the proposals on the table and dare the opposition to oppose them.

2. We need a huge increase in the numbers paying income tax. Reduce the lower limit to bring thousands more into the tax loop. Keep the Unions happy by introducting a new high rate of 65% for the top 1% of tax payers. It won't raise much because most of them will piss off abroad but it will play well with the working man.

3. Freeze all public sector recruitment.

4. Freeze public sector pay and welfare payments.

5. Tax all luxuries that you can't buy in the north, for examples second homes.

6. Increase motor tax on luxury models.

7. Increase fuel duty so that it's on a par with the north.

8. Cut the tax on a pint of porter. This will please the working man and get him on your side. 25c a pint will probably be enough.

9. End the smoking ban in pubs. In a time of crisis the plain people of Ireland want to be able to have a smoke the the local to discuss the issues.

10. Impose spending Cuts on all Departments and agencies of 10%. Force the civil servants to earn their keep by coming up with proposals that maintain services at a lower cost.

That's my advice Mr Cowan. Consider it carefully.

Lecale2

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Rossfan on March 03, 2009, 06:49:00 PM
But we have to start being productive again and forget about fcukin property and other useless(GNP wise) nonsense like "Financial Services" a.k.a havens for dodgy foreign money.
The Government needs to recover some of  the tax money that's being lost in Section 23 type things . Could be done by either giving  all the allowances at 20% Tax relief or else halve the amount allowable and/or spread it out over double the time.
The money saved could be used to assist productive companies with low tax rates and/or no Employers PRSI or the like.
But it's hard to see any original ideas coming from Biffo/Lenihan/Coughlan(FFS)/Harney/Dick Roche/Cullen or the rest so we may suffer on.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Rossfan on March 03, 2009, 06:51:15 PM
Quote from: Lecale2 on March 03, 2009, 06:44:38 PM
The dogs in the streets knew an emergency budget would be required but Lenihan & Cowan remained in denial.

3. Freeze all public sector recruitment.

4. Freeze public sector pay and welfare payments.




Both already done plus levies on wages.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: armaghniac on March 03, 2009, 06:54:16 PM
QuoteSo we're basically looking at a stagnant economy unless we start producing something we can sell overseas to get money and jobs circulating again.

While we have messed up big ourselves, the rest of world is currently also in poo, so trading our way out is not possible for a while. Now the whole world will not remain depressed for too long, unless nothing has been learned since the 1930s, so when it begins to lift we will get some stimulus from outside. Redirecting tax reliefs from property to something productive would be the kind of thing needed to prepare to take advantage of this uplift when it comes.  

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on March 03, 2009, 07:06:13 PM
I agree with the area of tax relief having to be looked at. Some reliefs are probably necessary to stimulate growth but we all know of waste in this area. Mortgage relief on 2nd, 3rd properties should be looked at but also section 23 and Hotel reliefs etc.

Scrapping car tax and putting it on fuel instead has a carbon benefit as well as getting rid of the need to administer car tax (which in fairness has improved in recent year).

We have a Dept of Health and a HSE which appear to do the same thing. Scap one of them.

Bye bye Government Jet and abusing the Aer Corps by using their aircraft for ministerial trips. Aer Arann, Ryanair & Aer Lingus from now on. The ministerial car needs to be looked at, certainly needed for a few but not for all.

Income is down 25%. Spending will have to fall by about the same. They can't keep going to the ever reducing amount of PAYE workers still in employment to raise even more money. That is the economy's equivalent of a spiral dive.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: armaghniac on March 03, 2009, 07:15:20 PM
QuoteScrapping car tax and putting it on fuel instead has a carbon benefit

Iit also makes people in Ballybinaby very wealthy. This is a complete non-runner.

QuoteIncome is down 25%. Spending will have to fall by about the same.

Spending cannot fall by 25% at time when more people are claiming dole etc. The economy has only fallen by 6% or so, yet tax has fallen 4 times as much, indicating that people (as a whole) are paying less tax because the tax structure is poor.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on March 03, 2009, 07:35:05 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on March 03, 2009, 07:15:20 PM
QuoteScrapping car tax and putting it on fuel instead has a carbon benefit

Iit also makes people in Ballybinaby very wealthy. This is a complete non-runner.
What are you on about? You need to think country rather than your local fuel smuggler.

QuoteIncome is down 25%. Spending will have to fall by about the same.

Spending cannot fall by 25% at time when more people are claiming dole etc. The economy has only fallen by 6% or so, yet tax has fallen 4 times as much, indicating that people (as a whole) are paying less tax because the tax structure is poor.
[/quote][/quote]

Income tax has fallen less than 6% does that mean it shouldn't be touched?

The Japanese economy contracted by 12% in the last Q. The US economy contracted by 6% in the last Q. Do we wait to see what it will be for us this year and if we get it wrong we say the tax structure is poor? Come to think of it are you in the Government?

Public spending is too high for our economy. It has been obvious for years but with the false economy that was Stamp Duty raising extra taxes and the Government buying votes nothing was done about it. Now you blame the tax stucture instead of dealing with it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: armaghniac on March 03, 2009, 07:56:43 PM
QuoteWhat are you on about? You need to think country rather than your local fuel smuggler.

Quite simply if fuel is made more expensive than in the North there will be huge change in volume sold, largely negating the revenue advantage gained.

QuotePublic spending is too high for our economy

Public spending is not particularly high in Ireland relative to other developed economies. In some areas it is high, in others it is not. Now the economy was inflated and will decrease in size and so should the public sector, but the public proportion of the economy always tends to rise in recessions.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on March 03, 2009, 08:02:54 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on March 03, 2009, 07:56:43 PM
QuoteWhat are you on about? You need to think country rather than your local fuel smuggler.

Quite simply if fuel is made more expensive than in the North there will be huge change in volume sold, largely negating the revenue advantage gained.

And what about closing every car tax office?

Quote
QuotePublic spending is too high for our economy

Public spending is not particularly high in Ireland relative to other developed economies. In some areas it is high, in others it is not. Now the economy was inflated and will decrease in size and so should the public sector, but the public proportion of the economy always tends to rise in recessions.
[/quote]

That is exactly what I was saying.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: armaghniac on March 03, 2009, 08:28:05 PM
QuoteAnd what about closing every car tax office?

This would not be a big saving, you still have to have a registration system to keep track of cars. When car tax was abolished in 1977 there was still an annual registration disk. It in no way compares to the loss of revenue to Gordon Brown of making fuel more expensive in the ROI, car tax is a good tax in that you can't smuggle it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on March 03, 2009, 08:34:26 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on March 03, 2009, 08:28:05 PM
QuoteAnd what about closing every car tax office?

This would not be a big saving, you still have to have a registration system to keep track of cars. When car tax was abolished in 1977 there was still an annual registration disk. It in no way compares to the loss of revenue to Gordon Brown of making fuel more expensive in the ROI, car tax is a good tax in that you can't smuggle it.

That is all going to happen anyway. I reckon Brown will try to inflate Britain's problem away which will see Sterling tumble against the Euro. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: carribbear on March 03, 2009, 09:39:57 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 03, 2009, 07:06:13 PM
We have a Dept of Health and a HSE which appear to do the same thing. Scap one of them.

Bye bye Government Jet and abusing the Aer Corps by using their aircraft for ministerial trips. Aer Arann, Ryanair & Aer Lingus from now on. The ministerial car needs to be looked at, certainly needed for a few but not for all.

Pull the army home and deploy them on the streets as reserve gardai. Cut weapons spending (1 billion last year)

HSE should be scrapped, get rid of the paper pushers and get more actual health professionals (doctors/nurses) in the hospitals. Scrap the dual practices in hospitals as well, you're either a public or a private doctor. that way they stop getting income on both sides of the fence and using the hospital faciities for their own monetary gain.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: tyronefan on March 03, 2009, 09:42:00 PM
the problem with cutting the public sector is that they just go on the dole so they are still costing the state although granted not as much
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: tyronefan on March 03, 2009, 09:43:23 PM
Do we really need an army, 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: carribbear on March 03, 2009, 09:55:03 PM
Quote from: tyronefan on March 03, 2009, 09:43:23 PM
Do we really need an army, 

China are nervous that Cowen will order the invasion.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: tyronefan on March 03, 2009, 09:58:17 PM
 :D

I think he has enough on his plate without invading China at the minute

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Rossfan on March 03, 2009, 10:01:51 PM
Big Countries usually start a war when they have economic problems  but Bush as usual got it wrong .
He started a war which caused the economic problems. :D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: armaghniac on March 03, 2009, 10:28:10 PM
QuoteChina are nervous that Cowen will order the invasion.

I think China is out of reach, but could we not annexe our fellow Gaels in the Isle of Man. We might find some interesting deposits in their banks.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on March 04, 2009, 12:03:47 AM
Quote from: muppet on March 03, 2009, 06:44:02 PM
The real problem is that most of this catastrophe in the national finances has been predicted a long time ago. The Government only woke up to it today. How does that happen? How can they be that incompetent?

Is it that they are incapable of seeing beyond the advice of Public Servants who have a slight vested interest in public expenditure?

Is the problem that our finance department, in common with economists everywhere base all predictions on nice little models that have been somewhat useful over the past 50-100yrs in predicting what happens in economies that are constantly growing, allbeit with a few minor recessions or periods of negative or negligible growth? 

Is it also the case that these models, like most economic theories were developed in response to past events and by the study of what has happened in the past?  Is there now a case for throwing all these models and theories by the wayside as conditions have now altered and perhaps altered for good?  Do they realise that in the 1980's and 1930's economist also thought they had it sorted many times and that this time they wouldn't allow the mistakes of the past to be repeated? 

Our whole western society is and has been based for much of the past century on the basic thesis that consumption will increase, what happens when saturation point is reached, when consumption starts to decrease, when society feels that perhaps the new car, the new tv, the new gadget is not necessary (or more pertinently the loan required is not available)?  When we talk with scorn about the financial products that were created over the past number of years and talk about how these products were simply forms of gambling that were unrelated to the real economy, we forget that these products allowed for the situations whereby crdit was freely available to almost everyone in western society, now that we're set on removing these toxic products, and that's what they were, how can demand get to the same levels without the credit that flowed because of the global financial markets?  Is there a possibility that global demand has reached it's zenith and that the only way is down?  Does that in turn mean that employment has to decrease massively worldwide, that the pie has shrunk dramatically?

We've all been talking about how Ireland is uncompetitive and how wages have to be decreased before we can attract new industry, but what new industry?  Since worldwide consumption of everything is plummetting, what can we make that will be attractive?  We see various Japanese companies slash employment for the first time ever, we see the germans doing likewise, the eastern european countries that were supposed to be taking all our jobs are in crisis and are likely to need bailouts before us?  What might get the global economy moving again?  Another world war?  History shows that is one way to boost demand, is that where we're heading?

If we look at the fundamentals, what do we as a nation require in order to satisfy most of the people living here?  Food, water, healthcare and energy are certainly fundamental, all nations need these things, do we have the potential to be self sufficient in all these things?  Should we be trying to ensure that we are? 
To my mind it's a no-brainer that we try and work towards energy self sufficiency as quickly as possible, likewise with food and water, at some stage trade and commerce will pick up again, it's best that we have something with which to trade and then what we have will always be worth having.

Worrying about pension levies and public sector cuts and tax increases etc is all well and good, but are we maybe taking our eyes off the big picture?

I know there's an awful lot of crap and simplistic thinking in what I've written so i'd welcome criticism and other points of view, go on lads, rip it to pieces ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Lecale2 on March 04, 2009, 12:52:36 AM
QuoteAnother world war?  History shows that is one way to boost demand, is that where we're heading?

Anyone who has studied the 1930s will generally tell you that The New Deal did very little to end the depression. It was the war that did it. Building things and then blowing them up boosts the economy.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on March 04, 2009, 06:59:02 AM
Interesting thesis BB - Does anyone seriously think that our current govt is capable of using the proposed tax increases properly?
Watched Prime time last night and was astounded at Demspey's performance- If this is the man sent out to bat by the Govt and is seen as one of the senior voices we are well and truly donald ducked   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Hound on March 04, 2009, 07:23:39 AM
Heard a clip on the radio this morning.

Was half asleep, so I hope I didnt get it wrong.

I think it was some Green Party woman, suggesting a 1 cent tax on texts. She said there are 4 million mobile phones in Ireland and this tax would raise €1.4 billion a year - painlessly.  Its a genius of an idea if I heard it right. (And why not 2 cent!).

Just now trying to work out the figures as it sounds extraordinarily high.

€1.4 billion at 1 cent = 140 billion texts a year.
4 million phones = 35,000 texts per phone per year
Therefore 95 texts per phone per day (on average).

That can't be right. Maybe 9.5 texts per day on average. Its very early, so maybe I've a mistake in there, or maybe she made a mistake or I misheard and its €140m a year in revenue.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on March 04, 2009, 07:35:08 AM
No hound you heard right - did I not hear from some OFFCOM report that we send 23 million texts a week though which is about right on those figures?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Tubberman on March 04, 2009, 08:52:20 AM
Quote
Heard a clip on the radio this morning.

Was half asleep, so I hope I didnt get it wrong.

I think it was some Green Party woman, suggesting a 1 cent tax on texts. She said there are 4 million mobile phones in Ireland and this tax would raise €1.4 billion a year - painlessly.  Its a genius of an idea if I heard it right. (And why not 2 cent!).

Just now trying to work out the figures as it sounds extraordinarily high.

€1.4 billion at 1 cent = 140 billion texts a year.
4 million phones = 35,000 texts per phone per year
Therefore 95 texts per phone per day (on average).

That can't be right. Maybe 9.5 texts per day on average. Its very early, so maybe I've a mistake in there, or maybe she made a mistake or I misheard and its €140m a year in revenue.

Yeah, I heard it on NewsTalk this morning. Mary White was saying if we put a 1c tax on all texts, it would bring in around €1.4bn a year. Claire Byrne said they had got the figures for last year and 25m texts were sent. This would actually bring in €91m  :( ::)
Plus, how many of these texts come out of bundles (50 free a month, free SMS for life etc) so the actual figure could be lower again...
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Donagh on March 04, 2009, 08:59:14 AM
Did it not occur to her that the more you tax something the less it will be used, so estimates based on current use will be incorrect.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: whiskeysteve on March 04, 2009, 09:10:42 AM
I dont think a 1 or 2 cent tariff would be too detrimental to the number of texts. And in the grand scheme of things it would be one of the easy taxes to face up to. A lot of money needs to be wrung from somewhere so why not?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Hound on March 04, 2009, 09:22:38 AM
Quote from: Declan on March 04, 2009, 07:35:08 AM
No hound you heard right - did I not hear from some OFFCOM report that we send 23 million texts a week though which is about right on those figures?
23 million texts a week between us, is 1.2 billion texts per year - which at one cent per text would only bring in €12 million per year in tax revenue.

So I think Mary White got her figures mixed up a tad.
It looks like she got the figure of 1.4 billion texts and multiplied it by 1 euro per text insead of 1 cent per text! 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on March 04, 2009, 10:46:02 AM
Quote from: Donagh on March 04, 2009, 08:59:14 AM
Did it not occur to her that the more you tax something the less it will be used, so estimates based on current use will be incorrect.

Just holding that quote from you in stasis Donagh, just in case.  ;)

You are correct though.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: the Deel Rover on March 04, 2009, 10:48:52 AM
Quote from: muppet on March 03, 2009, 06:14:18 PM
Quote from: Lecale2 on March 03, 2009, 06:08:43 PM
You're not that keen on the auld property tax then Muppet?

The posters on P.ie are predicting a .75% to 1% property tax announced before the end of the month. That would mean a 3 bed semi in Dublin  worth around €300,000 will cost €3000 p/a.

They are talking about a new income tax rates of 25% and 48% with the higher band being lowered to the low €30K range.

Water charges and increased fuel excise all on the way. Enjoy March.



Ah this country is definately Fcuked 2 billion shortfall in the 1st two months of the year, if they bring in the property tax ( have allready paid stamp duty twice  >:( )  along with changing the income tax rates plus that new tax levy we are allready paying how the feck do they expect people to have any money to spend tis no wonder people are shopping up  North i was speaking to a lad that was in Enniskillen on monday and he said half of Ballina must have been up there
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: ludermor on March 04, 2009, 11:11:41 AM
Quote from: Declan on March 04, 2009, 07:35:08 AM
No hound you heard right - did I not hear from some OFFCOM report that we send 23 million texts a week though which is about right on those figures?

Is it not 25million texts per day?
25millionx365 = 9,125 million @ 1 cent per text = 91.25 million
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: orangeman on March 04, 2009, 11:49:53 AM
Quote from: Hound on March 04, 2009, 09:22:38 AM
Quote from: Declan on March 04, 2009, 07:35:08 AM
No hound you heard right - did I not hear from some OFFCOM report that we send 23 million texts a week though which is about right on those figures?
23 million texts a week between us, is 1.2 billion texts per year - which at one cent per text would only bring in €12 million per year in tax revenue.

So I think Mary White got her figures mixed up a tad.
It looks like she got the figure of 1.4 billion texts and multiplied it by 1 euro per text insead of 1 cent per text! 


Slight remarks past !
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Hound on March 04, 2009, 12:07:10 PM
KPMG announce 200 redundancies (on top of 100 being let go who are coming out of their training contract)

Bausch & Lomb expected to announce 200 redundancies also.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: bcarrier on March 05, 2009, 09:34:56 AM
A solution .... :o

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2009/0225/1224241774267.html
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on March 05, 2009, 09:43:19 AM
While obviously not to be taken too seriously that article hints at how far back Ireland could go. There are dangerous anti-foreigner sentiments beginning to appear which could easily spill onto the streets.

If we scapegoat foreigners how many multi-nationals will leave?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: bcarrier on March 05, 2009, 10:05:55 AM
If we could go back three years and remove the 30% increase in public sector expenditure we would be half way there to solving the problems.

They need to think about unintended consequences of some of these new taxes. A property tax could become the tipping point for landlords with empty or low rental yield property - while there has been cuts in ECB rates these aren't being passed on in their entirety and I could easily see this precipitating further falls in property prices. They could offset this by scrapping stamp duty and VAT on New houses ( they are collecting bugger all now anyway) . This second move would increase residual land values and bank exposure to bad loans but probably would be seen as a builders bailout and they probably dont have wit to sell it to the masses.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: FermGael on March 05, 2009, 11:46:01 AM
Quote from: bcarrier on March 05, 2009, 10:05:55 AM
If we could go back three years and remove the 30% increase in public sector expenditure we would be half way there to solving the problems.

If we could go back three years and control the price of housing then we would be 3/4's of the way there.





Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on March 05, 2009, 11:48:09 AM
Thought this was a great piece:


THINGS have come to a pretty pass when, as reported in Tuesday's finance pages, the only source of optimism on the Irish Stock Exchange was "a good set of numbers from Paddy Power".
No harm to Paddy. I'm happy for him. It's a relief to know somebody still has a good set of numbers. Even so, the company's recession-proof performance – it still plans to open more branches rather than close any – confirms a worrying suspicion I've had for some time: that bookmakers and bankers are gradually changing places.
This hasn't happened literally yet, so far as I know. That is, I'm not aware of a case where a bookie's shop has moved into a premises formerly occupied by a bank, or vice versa. But the general drift is in that direction.
It's not so long ago that bookmakers were hidden down the side-streets of Irish towns, forced to operate behind blacked out windows and the code-name "turf accountants", lest the public find out what was really happening in there and be led astray.
Since then, most have moved on to Main Street, where they occupy shiny new premises and sit confidently alongside the banks. The question now is how long the banks – none of which has a good set of numbers these days – can afford to remain there.
The latest giant stride in the bookies' march to respectability coincides with a period when the financial services sector is heading the opposite way, just as rapidly. If current trends continue, the banks will soon be in the side streets, blacking out their windows and operating under a euphemism.
To some extent, the bookmakers moved into the mainstream by mimicking high finance. The advent of spread betting, for example, where punters "buy" or "sell" projections for anything from Ireland's points total in the Six Nations to the length of Sebastian Chabal's beard in France's next game, lent sports betting the veneer of commodities trading.
And at the same time as this was happening, financiers were being rebranded as straightforward gamblers. It became common in recent years to hear about bankers making "bets". Maybe financiers have always talked this way about their investments and I've only noticed it of late, when all the bets were losing ones.
But from Nick Leeson to Anglo-Irish, a succession of financial disasters has undermined the once popular notion that your banker knew what he was doing, while making the option of putting all your money on a three-legged horse at Fairyhouse instead look relatively sensible. Jumps racing is just another kind of hedge fund, when you think about it.
Wrestling with its own horrendous set of numbers, the Government will hardly take much comfort in the bookmakers' success, although it could certainly claim some credit. During the boom years, you could have called an emergency cabinet meeting in the parade ring of any big race meeting. On a bad day, there would still be enough for a sub-committee.
When politicians weren't backing horses, they were backing themselves. And if the media weren't always invited to the placing of the bet, they would certainly be invited if the bet was cashed in. I remember attending just such an occasion after the 2002 election when, against all odds – or at least those of Paddy Power – Mary Harney produced a betting docket predicting that the PDs would win eight seats.
To most observers beforehand, such a prospect was the political equivalent of the three-legged horse. Suspicions lingered that the PDs had dockets predicting several other results too. Even so, Harney's collection of her winnings generated more media excitement than the arrival of Charlie Bucket at Willie Wonka's chocolate factory. You could almost hear the bookies singing that line from Abba's Waterloo: "I feel like I win when I lose." Despite all the help they enjoyed in their rise, the bookmakers' feat in portraying themselves as the punter's friend is still perhaps the greatest public relations success of our time.
In an era when bankers are invited on air only to apologise or to say how big their pay cuts are, no radio programme is now complete without a slot involving an amiable bookie – usually putting up the money for a charity bet and, inter alia, offering free advice to the public on how to impoverish him. Generous as his odds are to start with, he can nearly always have his arm twisted to add a point or two in the name of a good cause. He will do this with the air of a man who knows he's a soft touch, but can't help it because he came down in the last shower.
As I write, the build-up to the Cheltenham Festival is under way and with it the phenomenon of "preview nights" all around the country. These are a bit like the foreign property seminars we used to have during the boom, albeit with a wider range of opinions about the products on offer. Panels comprising trainers, owners, jockeys, celebrity gamblers and the odd journalist assess each race and predict the winners and losers, as punters avidly take notes.
The friendly bookie will be there too, outlining his range of attractive investment options. He may even chip in with his own tips, and these will be at least as good as anyone else's. But he can always offer them safe in the knowledge that, although he may lose a few bob here and there, in the long run the numbers will look after themselves.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: tyronefan on March 05, 2009, 12:12:04 PM
Quote from: FermGael on March 05, 2009, 11:46:01 AM
Quote from: bcarrier on March 05, 2009, 10:05:55 AM
If we could go back three years and remove the 30% increase in public sector expenditure we would be half way there to solving the problems.

If we could go back three years and control the price of housing then we would be 3/4's of the way there.


I would say we are there already and maybe more in some parts of the country
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: FermGael on March 05, 2009, 12:13:58 PM
No where near TyroneFan.
Most sellers still believe that housing cannot go down. 
I do not get me started on estate agents. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Croí na hÉireann on March 05, 2009, 12:28:07 PM
Quote from: tyronefan on March 05, 2009, 12:12:04 PM
Quote from: FermGael on March 05, 2009, 11:46:01 AM
Quote from: bcarrier on March 05, 2009, 10:05:55 AM
If we could go back three years and remove the 30% increase in public sector expenditure we would be half way there to solving the problems.

If we could go back three years and control the price of housing then we would be 3/4's of the way there.


I would say we are there already and maybe more in some parts of the country


We're back to 2004 levels regarding house prices, that's five years, and IMHO we're only halfway there...
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on March 05, 2009, 03:36:46 PM
Just heard from a colleague whose sister is a Director of KPMG - or was up to a few minutes ago; 30% of her tax dept also got the chop ....batten down the hatches...

10% figure was for public consumption. It'll be as many as it can be

Also - Remember that c.€3bn fig that AIB originally gave that jumped to €8bn in their real results? Well there was a little nugget in the annual accounts that actually says €12bn could be at risk – see below – and this now includes €2.7bn of Irish residential mortgages – almost equivalent to TOTAL for all loans  (€3bn) they claimed was their most pessimistic estimate ( before they got our money..)!

"Management gave guidance on credit quality and the surprise was the large increase in "criticised loans". These are loans that need to be managed to prevent problems in the future.
At the half year criticised loans were 7.6% of total loans, but this has increased to 11.7% of the loan book or €12.5bn at year end. In the company presentation criticised loans were further broken down into watch credit (shows weakness, but can still repay from own resources) and vulnerable (loans is still paying, but relying on other sources). Of the criticised loans €8.2bn are on watch and €4.3bn are vulnerable.
• The majority of loans on the watch list relate to property with €2.7bn (25.4%) of ROI residential"

Finally for the last of the good news - Bank of Ireland share price down to 0.14 cent - yes 14 cent


Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Hound on March 05, 2009, 04:39:49 PM
Interesting stats in the Irish Times today.

6% of people earn over €100,000.
Those 6% contribute 40% of the total income tax take.

The 1500 people who earned over €1m last year (average earnings €2.4m each) contributed, on average, €800,000 each in tax.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Billys Boots on March 05, 2009, 04:45:51 PM
QuoteThe 1500 people who earned over €1m last year (average earnings €2.4m each) contributed, on average, €800,000 each in tax.

That can't be right Hound, that would equate to €1.2T, which would have us on the pig's back.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: armaghniac on March 05, 2009, 05:02:23 PM
1500 x 0.8m = 1.2B

Another interesting figure knocking about is that the shortfall at present is about €10,000 per worker. Are you ready to pony up your €10,000?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Rossfan on March 05, 2009, 09:56:17 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on March 05, 2009, 10:05:55 AM
If we could go back three years and remove the 30% increase in public sector expenditure we would be half way there to solving the problems.

They need to think about unintended consequences of some of these new taxes. A property tax could become the tipping point for landlords with empty or low rental yield property - while there has been cuts in ECB rates these aren't being passed on in their entirety and I could easily see this precipitating further falls in property prices. They could offset this by scrapping stamp duty and VAT on New houses ( they are collecting bugger all now anyway) . This second move would increase residual land values and bank exposure to bad loans but probably would be seen as a builders bailout and they probably dont have wit to sell it to the masses.

For eff sake will some of ye ever realise that it's all this property fixation that has us in the fcukin sh1t we're in.
House prices will continue to fall in reality till they get back to where they should be in the emptiest country in Europe outside the mainly uninhabitable Scandanavian Countries. That would be between twice and 3 times an average middle income annual salary of around €50k in built up or commuter type parts of the Country. Deduct 25% at least for our part of the Country.
By the way I see a cottage and piece of ground near Boyle is for sale at €20,000 !!! YES TWENTY THOUSAND €.(www.daft.ie)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: armaghniac on March 05, 2009, 10:26:01 PM
QuoteHouse prices will continue to fall in reality till they get back to where they should be in the emptiest country in Europe outside the mainly uninhabitable Scandinavian Countries.

Exactly. Canada hasn't had a crisis now because it didn't have a property boom and property remained at a price appropriate to a largely empty country. Houses here will be 2.5 times a couples income in big towns, less in the countryside. You won't get many couples starting to buy houses earning more than a combined €100,000 so there will have to sub €300,000 houses in nice areas of cities.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on March 06, 2009, 12:11:25 AM
There are 350,000 empty houses in Ireland, the recovery is a long way away.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Hound on March 06, 2009, 07:23:44 AM
Quote from: Billys Boots on March 05, 2009, 04:45:51 PM
QuoteThe 1500 people who earned over €1m last year (average earnings €2.4m each) contributed, on average, €800,000 each in tax.

That can't be right Hound, that would equate to €1.2T, which would have us on the pig's back.
Yes as said above its billion rather than trillion. Those earning over €200,000 contributed a combined €4 billion to the exchequer in income tax last year.

It raises the interesting question of how much is "a fair share".

I think the figures show that the much maligned rich do contribute a lot in terms of tax revenue, and I'm sure in other ways too, e.g. charity, job creation etc. But its minority tax exiles and immoral cheats who grab all the headlines and get the lot of them thrown in the one bucket.

Not that I'm feeling sorry for them! The can afford to pay more and everyone has to feel some pain. But also need to be careful that they are not totally scapegoated, as by their nature they tend to be more mobile and many could feck off to Malta like Denis O'Brien or similar, which could end up leaving us worse off.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: the Deel Rover on March 06, 2009, 09:16:19 AM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 05, 2009, 09:56:17 PM
By the way I see a cottage and piece of ground near Boyle is for sale at €20,000 !!! YES TWENTY THOUSAND €.(www.daft.ie)

it needs a bit of work rossfan  ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: the Deel Rover on March 06, 2009, 09:19:21 AM
Latest ISEQ Share Prices
(06 March 2009, 9:00 AM Est 20 minutes delayed)


ALLIED IRISH BKS 0.30  0.03 (11.11%)
BANK OF IRELAND  0.14  0.01 (8.00%)


Never mind the cottage in Boyle Rosssfan any one want to buy a  bank  ;)  :o
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on March 06, 2009, 10:00:21 AM
A national campaign was launched on last night's Prime Time to seek people's ideas to stimulate economic recovery and focus on solutions to Ireland's serious economic problems.

Called The Ideas Campaign, this grassroots initiative is targeting the citizens of Ireland and asking them to propose innovative ideas to boost economic activity across key areas such as manufacturing, technology, construction, retail and education. But it's not only about business – the Ideas Campaign also wants ideas for the arts, sport and voluntary and community activity that will enrich this country.

The campaign will run until 31 March and centres on a website – IdeasCampaign.ie (http://ideascampaign.ie) – which went live today and which will:

    * Capture citizens' ideas across 19 different categories that are important to the Irish economy
    * Allow them to send messages of support
    * Provide easy-to-understand information about the Irish economy that is directly applicable to their lives

This is a citizens' campaign, owned by people in Ireland. The campaign, and those who get involved, have to be practical and realistic, particularly in the light of the global economic crisis and the serious state of the government's finances.

The Ideas Campaign plans to use the ideas received to deliver an action plan for Government in April with aggressive timelines for execution. An Advisory Group, comprising senior figures with experience in business, academia, economics and the public sector, is advising the campaign team and will have an input into the action plan to ensure that recommendations are both pragmatic and achievable.

The campaign arose from a contribution which businesswoman Aileen O'Toole made to the Prime Time special on the economy on 14 January. She spoke about positive aspects of Irish economic activity and the need to focus on solutions, not problems. This TV appearance met with a huge response which led Aileen O'Toole to establish this campaign less than three weeks ago.

The campaign is independent, non-political and has been modestly funded by Aileen O'Toole's business, AMAS. It is being staffed by highly-qualified individuals who have been made redundant because of the recession and who are being supported by a network of volunteers, as well as AMAS's Directors and staff.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on March 06, 2009, 10:14:08 AM
Was going to modify my last entry but this really deserves a post of its own

Here is our Minister for Older people  - Marie Hoctor TD on Prime Time last night – She can't even read a prepared script – Lord Jaysus.
Remember she's on €150K a year plus expenses and a car – Beggars belief.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWmnQtZljjw (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWmnQtZljjw)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: the Deel Rover on March 06, 2009, 10:19:35 AM
Quote from: Declan on March 06, 2009, 10:14:08 AM
Was going to modify my last entry but this really deserves a post of its own

Here is our Minister for Older people  - Marie Hoctor TD on Prime Time last night – She can't even read a prepared script – Lord Jaysus.
Remember she's on €150K a year plus expenses and a car – Beggars belief.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWmnQtZljjw (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWmnQtZljjw)


i saw that last night, jesus i was embarrased for her myself and bad enough that they showed it once but they went and replayed it again
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Billys Boots on March 06, 2009, 10:27:43 AM
Quote from: Hound on March 06, 2009, 07:23:44 AM
Quote from: Billys Boots on March 05, 2009, 04:45:51 PM
QuoteThe 1500 people who earned over €1m last year (average earnings €2.4m each) contributed, on average, €800,000 each in tax.

That can't be right Hound, that would equate to €1.2T, which would have us on the pig's back.
Yes as said above its billion rather than trillion. Those earning over €200,000 contributed a combined €4 billion to the exchequer in income tax last year.

It raises the interesting question of how much is "a fair share".

I think the figures show that the much maligned rich do contribute a lot in terms of tax revenue, and I'm sure in other ways too, e.g. charity, job creation etc. But its minority tax exiles and immoral cheats who grab all the headlines and get the lot of them thrown in the one bucket.

Not that I'm feeling sorry for them! The can afford to pay more and everyone has to feel some pain. But also need to be careful that they are not totally scapegoated, as by their nature they tend to be more mobile and many could feck off to Malta like Denis O'Brien or similar, which could end up leaving us worse off.

Sorry Hound, I lost my mathematical abilities there yesterday - I hope they come back soon.  ::)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on March 06, 2009, 10:37:34 AM
Quote from: Billys Boots on March 06, 2009, 10:27:43 AM
Quote from: Hound on March 06, 2009, 07:23:44 AM
Quote from: Billys Boots on March 05, 2009, 04:45:51 PM
QuoteThe 1500 people who earned over €1m last year (average earnings €2.4m each) contributed, on average, €800,000 each in tax.

That can't be right Hound, that would equate to €1.2T, which would have us on the pig's back.
Yes as said above its billion rather than trillion. Those earning over €200,000 contributed a combined €4 billion to the exchequer in income tax last year.

It raises the interesting question of how much is "a fair share".

I think the figures show that the much maligned rich do contribute a lot in terms of tax revenue, and I'm sure in other ways too, e.g. charity, job creation etc. But its minority tax exiles and immoral cheats who grab all the headlines and get the lot of them thrown in the one bucket.

Not that I'm feeling sorry for them! The can afford to pay more and everyone has to feel some pain. But also need to be careful that they are not totally scapegoated, as by their nature they tend to be more mobile and many could feck off to Malta like Denis O'Brien or similar, which could end up leaving us worse off.

Sorry Hound, I lost my mathematical abilities there yesterday - I hope they come back soon.  ::)

Are you sure you'e not a Lenihan?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Billys Boots on March 06, 2009, 10:39:35 AM
I would still have been top-of-the-class in Government yesterday.  :P
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on March 06, 2009, 10:44:55 AM
Quote from: Hound on March 05, 2009, 04:39:49 PM
Interesting stats in the Irish Times today.

6% of people earn over €100,000.
Those 6% contribute 40% of the total income tax take.

The 1500 people who earned over €1m last year (average earnings €2.4m each) contributed, on average, €800,000 each in tax.


imo these numbers which have been thrown around with gay abandon by our govt politicians are a red herring, i'm not doubting their accuracy, but what they consistently fail to point out is that in this country only circa 30% of our total tax take is in the form of income tax.  We have amongst the highest proportion in the EU (I think the highest) of our taxes in the form of indirect taxes (mainly consumption taxes), thus whilst it's fair to say that low earners don't pay income tax we can safely assume that they pay their fair share as presumably almost every cent earned is spent, therefore incurring vat at 21.5% and the many excise duties on alcohol and cigarettes.
At this stage I have come round to the idea of lowering the bands somewhat and having the minimum wage taxed to a small extent, but moreso because it will increase the tax take from all rather than from what it will take from the low earners.
I personally have no objections to a vastly increased top rate of tax, I'd be in favour of 50% at least.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on March 06, 2009, 10:47:07 AM
Quote from: Declan on March 06, 2009, 10:14:08 AM
Was going to modify my last entry but this really deserves a post of its own

Here is our Minister for Older people  - Marie Hoctor TD on Prime Time last night – She can't even read a prepared script – Lord Jaysus.
Remember she's on €150K a year plus expenses and a car – Beggars belief.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWmnQtZljjw (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWmnQtZljjw)


I honestly have never heard of her - too many td's perhaps and certainly too many ministers.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Gnevin on March 06, 2009, 10:56:09 AM
Quote from: Declan on March 06, 2009, 10:00:21 AM
A national campaign was launched on last night's Prime Time to seek people's ideas to stimulate economic recovery and focus on solutions to Ireland's serious economic problems.

Called The Ideas Campaign, this grassroots initiative is targeting the citizens of Ireland and asking them to propose innovative ideas to boost economic activity across key areas such as manufacturing, technology, construction, retail and education. But it's not only about business – the Ideas Campaign also wants ideas for the arts, sport and voluntary and community activity that will enrich this country.

The campaign will run until 31 March and centres on a website – IdeasCampaign.ie (http://ideascampaign.ie) – which went live today and which will:

    * Capture citizens' ideas across 19 different categories that are important to the Irish economy
    * Allow them to send messages of support
    * Provide easy-to-understand information about the Irish economy that is directly applicable to their lives

This is a citizens' campaign, owned by people in Ireland. The campaign, and those who get involved, have to be practical and realistic, particularly in the light of the global economic crisis and the serious state of the government's finances.

The Ideas Campaign plans to use the ideas received to deliver an action plan for Government in April with aggressive timelines for execution. An Advisory Group, comprising senior figures with experience in business, academia, economics and the public sector, is advising the campaign team and will have an input into the action plan to ensure that recommendations are both pragmatic and achievable.

The campaign arose from a contribution which businesswoman Aileen O'Toole made to the Prime Time special on the economy on 14 January. She spoke about positive aspects of Irish economic activity and the need to focus on solutions, not problems. This TV appearance met with a huge response which led Aileen O'Toole to establish this campaign less than three weeks ago.

The campaign is independent, non-political and has been modestly funded by Aileen O'Toole's business, AMAS. It is being staffed by highly-qualified individuals who have been made redundant because of the recession and who are being supported by a network of volunteers, as well as AMAS's Directors and staff.
I watched about 5 minutes and it seem like Prime Time where desperately attempting to fill the 15 minutes after the ads 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Lecale2 on March 06, 2009, 01:03:36 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on March 06, 2009, 10:47:07 AM
Quote from: Declan on March 06, 2009, 10:14:08 AM
Was going to modify my last entry but this really deserves a post of its own

Here is our Minister for Older people  - Marie Hoctor TD on Prime Time last night – She can't even read a prepared script – Lord Jaysus.
Remember she's on €150K a year plus expenses and a car – Beggars belief.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWmnQtZljjw (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWmnQtZljjw)


I honestly have never heard of her - too many td's perhaps and certainly too many ministers.
Hard to believe that woman is helping to govern the country.  :-[
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on March 06, 2009, 01:11:32 PM
Quote from: Lecale2 on March 06, 2009, 01:03:36 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on March 06, 2009, 10:47:07 AM
Quote from: Declan on March 06, 2009, 10:14:08 AM
Was going to modify my last entry but this really deserves a post of its own

Here is our Minister for Older people  - Marie Hoctor TD on Prime Time last night – She can't even read a prepared script – Lord Jaysus.
Remember she's on €150K a year plus expenses and a car – Beggars belief.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWmnQtZljjw (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWmnQtZljjw)


I honestly have never heard of her - too many td's perhaps and certainly too many ministers.
Hard to believe that woman is helping to govern the country.  :-[

She's not helping, just following orders and very badly at that . Mary Harney obviously refused to face the music so the cannon fodder was marched out.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Rossfan on March 06, 2009, 06:05:39 PM
And what about Cowan(or was it Lenihan) saying it was only last Tueday they realised things had got so bad in the public finances. :o

God Help Ireland. :-\
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: johnpower on March 06, 2009, 10:43:30 PM
Quote from: Declan on March 06, 2009, 10:14:08 AM
Was going to modify my last entry but this really deserves a post of its own

Here is our Minister for Older people  - Marie Hoctor TD on Prime Time last night – She can't even read a prepared script – Lord Jaysus.
Remember she's on €150K a year plus expenses and a car – Beggars belief.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWmnQtZljjw (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWmnQtZljjw)


I agree what a pathetic display . The sign that some people really get promoted 20 levels over their level of ability


I have just re-read the "The Generation Game " by David McWilliams  last weekend .He predicted most of it .
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Lecale2 on March 07, 2009, 08:04:39 AM
God save Ireland!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Farrandeelin on March 07, 2009, 07:04:06 PM
Quote from: johnpower on March 06, 2009, 10:43:30 PM
Quote from: Declan on March 06, 2009, 10:14:08 AM
Was going to modify my last entry but this really deserves a post of its own

Here is our Minister for Older people  - Marie Hoctor TD on Prime Time last night – She can't even read a prepared script – Lord Jaysus.
Remember she's on €150K a year plus expenses and a car – Beggars belief.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWmnQtZljjw (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWmnQtZljjw)


I agree what a pathetic display . The sign that some people really get promoted 20 levels over their level of ability


I have just re-read the "The Generation Game " by David McWilliams  last weekend .He predicted most of it .

Yeah, what a terrible performance by Máire Hoctor. Bloody hell, how the hell did Prime Time let her away with it. I wonder will the Opposition pick up this incident in the Dáil on Tuesday.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Hound on March 10, 2009, 02:19:47 PM
EBS results out:

- Pre-tax losses of just over €38m after setting aside €110m to cope with losses from loans (its writing off over 20% of its development finance book over a two-year period).
- They say they are dealing proactively with losses in its commercial loan book, and can now move forward decisively.
- Chairman and Fiinance Director get the bullet.
- No bonuses will be paid to management this year.

Pretty small fish compared to the other Irish banks.
Clearly a poor decision for them to diversify from their main business and dabble in the commercial, and they got burned. Though unlike the other banks there is more accountability and people have paid the price with their jobs.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on March 12, 2009, 12:48:20 PM
http://www.rte.ie/business/2009/0312/inflation.html (http://www.rte.ie/business/2009/0312/inflation.html)

Deflation, or negative inflation as the Government spin doctors will call it, is officially here.

Figures from the Central Statistics Office show that consumer prices fell by 1.7% in the year to February. This was the second month in a row in which there was negative inflation.

McWilliams wrote about the Deflation Spiral (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deflation_(economics)#Deflationary_spiral) a few weeks ago.

A deflationary spiral is a situation where decreases in price lead to lower production, which in turn leads to lower wages and demand, which leads to further decreases in price. Since reductions in general price level are called deflation, a deflationary spiral is when reductions in price lead to a vicious circle, where a problem exacerbates its own cause. The Great Depression was regarded as a deflationary spiral.

If this kicks off things will get miserable, especially for those with medium to large mortgages. Negative equity would seem likely. The only ones who would do well are probably those sitting on lots of cash with little or no mortgage debt.

And just to cheer us up Cowen says budget will be more severe than predicted (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2009/0312/1224242740625.html)

Still let's stay optimistic, it might be Mayo's year!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on March 12, 2009, 01:00:11 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 12, 2009, 12:48:20 PM
Still let's stay optimistic, it might be Mayo's year!

God love you for your optimism Muppet :D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: gerrykeegan on March 12, 2009, 01:01:39 PM
We took a 10% pay cut in Jan, another one looms, house price falling all the time......I'm from Westmeath! Nothing to look forward to!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on March 12, 2009, 01:46:08 PM
Quote from: gerrykeegan on March 12, 2009, 01:01:39 PM
We took a 10% pay cut in Jan, another one looms, house price falling all the time......I'm from Westmeath! Nothing to look forward to!

Move to Mayo. Despite every indicator always pointing to a bad year, we are always optimistic. We never, ever, learn.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Billys Boots on March 12, 2009, 02:22:27 PM
QuoteMove to Mayo.

Things haven't got that bad yet, have they?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: the Deel Rover on March 12, 2009, 04:09:22 PM
I wonder were the mortgages stress tested  ;)

Thursday, March 12, 2009

Builders engage in fraud to sell houses
by Cormac O'Keeffe

CASH-strapped builders are hiring fraudsters to buy their unwanted properties at inflated prices, according to the Criminal Assets Bureau.

Head of the CAB, Chief Supt John O'Mahony, said the crime, known as "builder bailout fraud" has surfaced in recent months and is driven by the downturn in the economy.

"A builder has a property he can't get rid of. He hires a fraudster. He creates a false identity to buy the property. The builder has his money and the fraudster has his."

He told the Oireachtas Finance Committee yesterday the properties were typically sold for an "inflated sum".

Chief Supt O'Mahony said there were "a number of active investigations", but declined to say how many or the types of builders involved. He said this type of fraud was very common in the US. It works as follows:

The fraudster creates false documents by scanning in real documents into a computer and making amendments. He uses the Irish Payment Services Organisation website to obtain someone's bank account details.

He works with a mortgage broker who puts together the application using the false documents.

The financial institution approves the mortgage and transfers the funds to the fraudster via a solicitor.

The builder receives the payment for the house from the fraudster and pays the fraudster his fee.

When the mortgage repayments are not met, the bank is left with a false identity. Chief Supt O'Mahony said CAB's main interest was recovering the properties. He said if there was evidence of criminality, those involved would be dealt with through the courts "no matter who they are".

He said mortgage fraud was the "most prevalent" type they encountered. Of the 56 cases they took in the High Court in the last three years, 20 dealt with properties. Many involved multiple mortgages.

Chief Supt O'Mahony said false documentation was used in all cases. He said criminal gangs were using mortgage fraud to launder their money. They typically used a mortgage broker who either "coaches" them or provides false documents.

He said the documents were "very sophisticated". The committee was shown examples, including bank statements, wage slips and utility bills.

He said another method involved the abuse of "solicitors' undertakings", whereby a financial institution grants a mortgage after a solicitor undertakes to carry out all the necessary paperwork, such as registering the property, which isn't done.

The criminal repays in cash and often takes out a second mortgage once he has paid the first one.

Greg Connell of the Irish Fraud Bureau said new anti-money laundering legislation would result in greater use of false documents of even higher quality. He said criminals would start stealing the identities of "prosperous and successful" people, as well as dead people with good credit histories.

The financial institutions which had loaned hundreds of millions of euro to high-profile disgraced solicitors could have applied greater scrutiny beforehand, if they had examined credit judgments made against them, said Mr Connell.





Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Rossfan on March 12, 2009, 08:27:03 PM
Quote from: gerrykeegan on March 12, 2009, 01:01:39 PM
.....I'm from Westmeath! Nothing to look forward to!

All you have to do is stroll to the River Shannon and have a look at the wonderful place to the West of you.
The sight of such a divine place will cheer you up no end. ;D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Croí na hÉireann on March 12, 2009, 10:04:51 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 12, 2009, 08:27:03 PM
Quote from: gerrykeegan on March 12, 2009, 01:01:39 PM
.....I'm from Westmeath! Nothing to look forward to!

All you have to do is stroll to the River Shannon and have a look at the wonderful place to the West of you.
The sight of such a divine place will cheer you up no end. ;D

That only applies to Athlone...  ;D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: FermGael on March 18, 2009, 10:13:26 AM
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7948791.stm (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7948791.stm)

Interesting.  If this becomes law, this has massive consequences in the UK
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on March 18, 2009, 12:27:12 PM
Quote from: FermGael on March 18, 2009, 10:13:26 AM
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7948791.stm (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7948791.stm)

Interesting.  If this becomes law, this has massive consequences in the UK

Heard a mortgage broker on breakfast tv this morning giving out holy stink about this, he was trying to say that the banks had lending under control at all times and that affordability measures were the correct way to decide on the size of mortgages to be advanced. 
It would be a brave decision by Brown to introduce strict regulation on mortgage lending based on salary multiples, will he do it?  I think not as the political backlash would be too severe (I don't think the markets would take kindly to it either).
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: thebigfella on March 18, 2009, 12:46:08 PM
Quote from: FermGael on March 18, 2009, 10:13:26 AM
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7948791.stm (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7948791.stm)

Interesting.  If this becomes law, this has massive consequences in the UK


Quite - I predicted though they will over regulate the banks and with that will require new regulatory systems/processes. Looking good work wise for me then for the next few years   ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: armaghniac on March 18, 2009, 12:50:17 PM
Quotehe was trying to say that the banks had lending under control at all times

Yeah. Right.

Mortgages should be restricted to 80% of value. If this had been done in Ireland we wouldn't be in the mess we are in.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Rossfan on March 18, 2009, 06:08:02 PM
Plus of course if the Government hadnt been adding fuel to the House price inflation fire by throwing tax reliefs after tax reliefs for any sort of building. >:(
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: ludermor on March 18, 2009, 08:07:48 PM
Do you think by keep repeating that you will get a reaction? you have made your point hundreds of times!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Rossfan on March 18, 2009, 08:47:58 PM
It's true isnt it?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: ludermor on March 18, 2009, 11:26:48 PM
Aye RM it is but do all your posts have to state it?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: bcarrier on March 23, 2009, 11:04:01 AM
The ideas campaign is a brillant idea :).

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: heganboy on March 23, 2009, 09:28:12 PM
hows that bailout going for everybody today?


Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: bcarrier on March 23, 2009, 09:37:28 PM
Dead cat bounce  ;D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: heganboy on March 23, 2009, 09:44:42 PM
cup and handle
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on April 18, 2009, 05:48:58 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 30, 2008, 10:59:45 AM
Quote from: Bogball XV on September 30, 2008, 10:06:53 AM
Quote from: orangeman on September 30, 2008, 09:33:28 AM
Quote from: muppet on September 30, 2008, 03:21:58 AM
Just back from the beer I mentioned earlier.

Shouldn't have gone.

From what I hear Irish banking will not be the same by lunchtime today. Better stay in bed.



Beer on a Monday night is never a good thing unless you've just won the AI - In that instance, it's almost compulsory !  ;) :D

Good news for Irish banking ?

Will UK and other governments follow suit ?

I don't know the ins and outs of it yet, but it seems to be a massive piece of bluffing by lenno - if he were ever asked to pay up, he couldn't, i suppose it depends on how long it will be before the markets either test his promise or just decide to disbelieve him.  If he has to come up with the goods, it'll be a disaster for the taxpayer.  We're currently talking about the budget from hell coming up because tax revenues are short by 7bn on estimates (you have to wonder what idiot came up with the estimates), yet the minister finds it okay to guarantee over €400Bn of loans made by banks?  If 10% go bad (probably not an unreasonable assumption) that's €40 Bn, almost our total annual budget.
It would have been a better idea to force some mergers between the banks who appeared in serious bother yesterday and the ones who just appeared in bother.

Agreed. So far it is the greatest and probably the most stupid gamble in the history of the state. They should have nationalised one bank (or 2 if they could afford it) and let the others go. Now all it takes is another day or two in the markets like yesterday and we will have taxes like we have never seen before.

Bogball it seems that the experts are beginning to demand what we suggested last September.

Irish Times : 20 top economists demand that the Government nationalise the banks. (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2009/0417/1224244902514.html)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: Bogball XV on April 18, 2009, 08:14:24 PM
Quote from: muppet on April 18, 2009, 05:48:58 PM
Bogball it seems that the experts are beginning to demand what we suggested last September.

Irish Times : 20 top economists demand that the Government nationalise the banks. (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2009/0417/1224244902514.html)
It's unfortunate our govt are so arrogant that they can't admit their mistakes, although I think the guarantee effectively means that eventually nationalisation is inevitable.  I hear they're talking about taking the loans at a 15% discount as to take more would effectively bankrupt the banks - 15% is laughable really, sorry, absolutely ludicrous.  
The other massive problem is that for some reason they're presuming that toxic loans are only those loans given to developers, they seem to think that in general residential mortgages are not going to be a problem, the approach to residential loans seems to be that if we give people a repayment holiday for 1 or 2 years, they should be able to sort out their problems - it's a total failure to recognise the depth and scale of the current depression.  At least when the banks are nationalised we'll be able to work out some sort of mortgage forgiveness scheme too.
The whole thing would be a bit depressing if you were to think too much about it all, better to ignore what they're doing from here on in.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: tyronefan on April 18, 2009, 08:31:13 PM
how will nationalising the banks help as opposed as to what is happening now,  will it release more money into the economy

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on April 18, 2009, 08:59:19 PM
Quote from: tyronefan on April 18, 2009, 08:31:13 PM
how will nationalising the banks help as opposed as to what is happening now,  will it release more money into the economy


nope, it's not a magic solution.  money will only be released into the irish economy if the ecb decide to follow uk and us and print money, not that their attempts are making much impact as the amounts they're pumping in are apparently miniscule as opposed to what has been removed from the economy (which if memory serves me correctly could be as high as 450 odd trillion dollars).  We're going to have to get used to living in a world where credit is not free and easily obtained for allcomers - you'll only be able to access credit when the banks are certain that your business is viable or that you won't default on the loan - in those circumstances it'd be better if govt was doing the lending anyway as they might advance loans using different criteria.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: bcarrier on April 21, 2009, 04:01:33 PM
Be afraid ...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30308959?slide=1

( click through the slides)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: nifan on April 21, 2009, 04:09:11 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on April 21, 2009, 04:01:33 PM
Be afraid ...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30308959?slide=1

( click through the slides)

fook :o
Title: More good news?
Post by: passedit on April 22, 2009, 10:09:53 AM
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2009/0422/1224245137788.html (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2009/0422/1224245137788.html)

IMF warns Ireland will pay highest price to secure banks

SIMON CARSWELL and DENIS STAUNTON

IRELAND WILL pay a higher price to stabilise its banks than any other developed country, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned.

The Washington-based organisation estimated the cost of stabilising Irish banks will be the equivalent of about €24 billion, the highest government bailout as a proportion of economic output.

The IMF said yesterday that "financial stabilisation costs" would account for 13.9 per cent of Ireland's estimated €171 billion in annual gross domestic product (GDP), the value of all the goods and services produced in the State this year.

The cost of bailing out the banks in the UK and the US fell slightly behind that of Ireland as a share of the value of their economies, totalling 13.4 per cent and 12.1 per cent of GDP respectively, in a list of 19 developed economies.

"The United States, United Kingdom and Ireland face some of the largest potential costs of financial stabilisation (12 to 13 per cent of GDP) given the scale of mortgage defaults," the IMF said in its biannual Global Financial Stability report.

Worldwide losses on distressed loans and investment assets may reach $4.1 trillion ($4,100 billion) by the end of 2010, the IMF said in the report published ahead of its spring meeting. Losses on loans and related securities originating in Europe and Japan – which will total about $1.3 trillion – were included by the IMF for the first time.

The report estimates that banks face $2.5 trillion in losses between 2007 and 2010, insurers $300 billion and other financial institutions $1.3 trillion. US banks have taken more radical action, writing down about half of their anticipated losses, while euro-zone banks have only written down about 17 per cent and British banks about a third of theirs.

Ireland was named as one of a number of countries with large banking sectors relative to the size of its economies or with concentrated exposures to the property sector that could face substantial bank bailout costs as a result.

The report predicts the crisis is likely to be "deep and long lasting" and banks may have to make more write-downs and could require fresh equity.

It noted that government action throughout the world had helped to restore market confidence but warned against excessive optimism, adding that more action would be necessary.

"Continued decisive and effective action is needed to preserve and strengthen these first signs of improvement, and to help provide a more stable and resilient platform for sustained global growth," said José Vinals, director of the IMF's monetary and capital markets department.

The IMF says governments should consider temporarily nationalising financial institutions, a move the US government and some others have until now shied away from. "A government should aim to ensure that banks can return to private ownership as expeditiously as possible. Banks that are not viable should be resolved promptly," the fund says.

The IMF estimates that Irish government debt will increase by more than any other developed country over the three years from 2008 to 2010, rising by 41 percentage points. The expected amount of debt in issue guaranteed by the Government would total $641 billion (€495bn), amounting to 2,700 per cent of the average debt issued by the State between 2003 and 2007, it said.

US treasury secretary Timothy Geithner told a congressional committee yesterday that the Obama administration's financial rescue policies were showing signs of progress, including increases in the number of refinanced mortgages and signs that credit conditions have improved.

"Currently, the vast majority of banks have more capital than they need to be considered well capitalized by their regulators," the treasury secretary said.

This article appears in the print edition of the Irish Times
Title: Re: More good news?
Post by: Bogball XV on April 22, 2009, 10:33:52 AM
Quote from: passedit on April 22, 2009, 10:09:53 AMThe Washington-based organisation estimated the cost of stabilising Irish banks will be the equivalent of about €24 billion, the highest government bailout as a proportion of economic output.
I think they're well off the mark with that figure tbh - if we get off that lightly I might even credit Lenno with having done the right thing.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Main Street on April 22, 2009, 12:01:15 PM

(http://www.cartoonstock.com/newscartoons/cartoonists/mfl/lowres/mfln397l.jpg)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: ludermor on April 22, 2009, 01:13:16 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on April 21, 2009, 04:01:33 PM
Be afraid ...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30308959?slide=1

( click through the slides)

Can you explain in simple English how the likes of norway is on the list when they are held as an example of thriving stable economy with all their oil reserves ( which has been invested brilliantly apparently)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Main Street on April 22, 2009, 01:36:14 PM
Norway are regarded as thriving because they have a very healthy trade balance, exports twice as much as it imports and net assets are strong.
When a country exports so much, gets paid and the cash is banked in Norway, that means that there is plenty of foreign currency available for purchase for the local business/individuals. The CB doesn't have to borrow foreign currency in order for the external debt to be paid.
External debt is all debt owed to be paid back in foreign currency.
The major part of the rise in Norways external debt is short term debt.
I doubt  relatively speaking if it will be that much of a problem for Norway to handle its external debt.
The USA external debt is similar in proportion to GDP as Norways  but their situation is infinitely worse due to the the huge astronomical internal debt.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: FermGael on April 22, 2009, 02:56:33 PM
The Budget in the UK announced today.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8011321.stm (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8011321.stm)
Quote
KEY POINTS
50% tax rate for earnings over £150,000
Growth forecast revised down
Borrowing increased
£15bn 'efficiency savings'
Clawing back tax relief on top earners' pension
£2bn help for young unemployed
£1bn to boost housing market
Car scrapping scheme

The top earners have been hit twice but there is some amount of borrowing.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on April 22, 2009, 10:41:50 PM
I was in a good mood until I looked at that slide show.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: bcarrier on April 22, 2009, 10:53:06 PM
I am confused by thid external debt measure ...Main Street ....does external debt matter ...are there external assets to offset this ..and is this CNBC figure  distorted by exposure to NI/GB ( a different currency) property loans ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on April 22, 2009, 11:27:08 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GPVe9scW_7Q&feature=related (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GPVe9scW_7Q&feature=related)

Even Dustin has emigrated.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Main Street on April 23, 2009, 12:44:10 AM
Quote from: bcarrier on April 22, 2009, 10:53:06 PM
I am confused by thid external debt measure ...Main Street ....does external debt matter ...are there external assets to offset this ..and is this CNBC figure  distorted by exposure to NI/GB ( a different currency) property loans ?

.does external debt matter?
Yes it matters. It has to be paid back. and you personally have guaranteed that it will be paid back.

You just have to understand that when the property prices went through the roof there was not enough money deposited in the Banks to cover the big loans people had to take to buy a home.  Banks borrowed from abroad. Prudence was slaughtered.

are there external assets to offset this?
You may be confused into thinking that external debt has to be connected to external assets.
That is not necessarily so.
External debt is the money borrowed by any entity inside the State - Gov borrowing - Banks - investment companies - Business- private,  that has to be paid back to financial institutions outside the State.
There can be assets outside the State, property in different countries, but in the main, the supply of money from foreign banks into Ireland went on property inside the State.  Each bank has its commercial and private property portfolio. These are called assets. Your mortgage is an asset of the bank. The loan given to buy Jurys Hotel is a (dwindling) asset of the Bank.  

Don't worry though, your generosity knows no bounds, your heart has been melted by the plight of the speculator & the Banks,  and you have promised to pay off the foreign bank in full, for the difference between the real value and the inflated value.







Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Lecale2 on April 23, 2009, 08:42:33 AM
A very interesting article on financial war.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0904/S00068.htm (http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0904/S00068.htm)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: bcarrier on April 23, 2009, 09:54:19 AM
Excellent article Lecale. Some good history in there ...its pretty convincing stuff. Even the CNBC slide show could be considered part of US propoganda.

Main street ..thanks . Reading Lecale's article it seems that governments should never borrow in foreign currency because they then lose their ability to inflate themselves out of debt...I am not sure how applicable to ireland this is given how little of eurozone we represent .

Presumably the current Irish government exposure to external debt comes through and party because of the bank guarantee  ?
Maybe the penny hasnt dropped but I cant see how external debt is THAT important ...is it not just really an exchange risk on top of the lending risk ...it could even be a positive depending on timing of strike ..( Euro strength against sterling ?) .

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Main Street on April 23, 2009, 11:33:46 AM
You mean which is the lesser of 2 evils , printing money or bowrrowing from abroad.
Depends on the circumstances  trade balance and the current level of debt.
Understand that the Government has not served the interests of the State and is continuing not to serve the interests of the State.

The way (and some say the only way) a country can become stable is to have a balanced trade  (exports and imports) and have their money supply backed by precious metals.
In every year of the past 10 years the State should have been putting by some 5% of resources to buy precious metals.

Money supply is a complicated one.
I don't know how The Irish CB relates to the Euro CB.

In the UK if someone wanted a 100% mortgage from a UK bank to buy a property valued at £1m,
a property that once was valued at £100K some 5 years previous.
The Bank went to the UK CB and deposited some guarantee to get the £900k difference printed out.
The UK CB changed its rules to allow that to happen.
Money supply was simply increased to cover the new value of the property.
That money stays in circulation when that mortgage is defaulted upon and property value goes down.
(Until the taxpayer scoops it up the waste).

Banks are not taking risks, they chose to invest Gov bailout money in low interest securities not to the public.
The UK CB has responded to the current crisis by printing money. It's called Quantitive Easing.
Money is printed (virtually) by the UK CB and it is used to buy up all sorts of toxic assets on the Banks books.
Theoretically this is to force the banks to lend to business /private and start to take risks again.

Despite the injection of 10s of billions of new currency into the market, the GBP has risen in value, go figure.

What one expects to happen is that the GBP falls further in value thus making exports cheaper.
But the UK  has lost its manufacturing base and imports more than it exports.
In that case, one would expect the GBP to crash in value as people rush to get rid of their stocks of GBP.





Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on April 30, 2009, 02:42:42 PM
http://www.yourtechstuff.com/techwire/2009/04/im-not-answerable-to-you.html (http://www.yourtechstuff.com/techwire/2009/04/im-not-answerable-to-you.html)

The attitude of these boys just keeps getting better
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: orangeman on May 19, 2009, 11:04:23 PM
Does this mean that interest rates are set to rise ??????




Stronger demand in latest bond auction
Tuesday, 19 May 2009 11:30
The National Treasury Management Agency has sold €1 billion worth of Government bonds in an auction this morning.

This was the first auction since Finance Minister Brian Lenihan began a tour of European financial centres to put the case for investing in Irish bonds. Demand was much stronger than in the previous auction last month.

The NTMA is trying to raise €25 billion this year to fund the widening Budget deficit. Before this morning's auction, it had already raised €12.3 billion.

A 4% bond which matures in 2014 raised €300m, while a 4.4% 2019 bond raised €700m. The yield on the 2014 bond was lower than in the April auction, but the yield on the 2019 bond was higher.

Yields on Irish bonds had been moving well ahead of benchmark German bonds but have eased in recent weeks.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on May 19, 2009, 11:20:54 PM
Quote from: orangeman on May 19, 2009, 11:04:23 PM
Does this mean that interest rates are set to rise ??????

virtually zero correlation between irish bond yields and ECB interest rates (we should remember that the ECB are the only actual buyers of Irish bonds, both directly and indirectly through irish banks) so it is they who receive the interest payments we're making.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: FermGael on May 28, 2009, 12:28:43 PM
Anybody see todays Irish news.

Bogus boom busted http://www.irishnews.com/irishnews/540/5860/2009/5/28/618666_382747618557Bogusboom.html (http://www.irishnews.com/irishnews/540/5860/2009/5/28/618666_382747618557Bogusboom.html)
WHEN is a property queue at an estate agent's not a queue?

When a model is paid to pose in a sleeping bag and potential buyers are asked to turn up at a specific time.

Last week this picture was sent out to newspapers billed as a rare good-news property story, showing people queueing for the new Sugar Walk apartments in Belfast city centre.

However, the PR company and developer have now admitted that the queue was at least partially staged.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: whiskeysteve on May 28, 2009, 12:54:42 PM
Quote from: FermGael on May 28, 2009, 12:28:43 PM
Anybody see todays Irish news.

Bogus boom busted http://www.irishnews.com/irishnews/540/5860/2009/5/28/618666_382747618557Bogusboom.html (http://www.irishnews.com/irishnews/540/5860/2009/5/28/618666_382747618557Bogusboom.html)
WHEN is a property queue at an estate agent's not a queue?

When a model is paid to pose in a sleeping bag and potential buyers are asked to turn up at a specific time.

Last week this picture was sent out to newspapers billed as a rare good-news property story, showing people queueing for the new Sugar Walk apartments in Belfast city centre.

However, the PR company and developer have now admitted that the queue was at least partially staged.

seen that, the model posing as someone waiting overnight is hilarious. Gotta beat that rush for a £135,000 apartment!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: supersarsfields on May 28, 2009, 12:54:56 PM
Ferm could you not take that Job application down from the bottom of your posts now?  Has that role not been filled!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on May 28, 2009, 03:37:40 PM
Well folks just opened the payslip for May there- Between myself and the good lady we're down about € >:(300
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: orangeman on May 28, 2009, 04:33:48 PM
Quote from: Declan on May 28, 2009, 03:37:40 PM
Well folks just opened the payslip for May there- Between myself and the good lady we're down about € >:(300


Lucky enough - you're still both working.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Donagh on May 29, 2009, 02:16:49 PM
Things just got a lot worse. Anglo is down over 4 billion in six months which means the Irish tax payer is down six billion and that could double by the end of the year. Developers were allowed to take out multiple loans secured on a single property.

Ireland to bail out Anglo after record loss

* Reuters, Friday May 29 2009

By Carmel Crimmins and Padraic Halpin
DUBLIN, May 29 (Reuters) - Ireland's government is injecting up to 4 billion euros ($5.6 billion) into Anglo Irish Bank in a U-turn forced by a fresh wave of bad loans that pushed the nationalised lender to the worst loss in the country's banking history.
Finance Minister Brian Lenihan, who earlier this week said Dublin was in no rush to inject capital into the bank, described the 4.1 billion euro first-half pretax loss it reported on Friday as "extremely disappointing".
The bailout for a commercial lender that has become a poster boy for the decline of the 'Celtic Tiger' economy prompted a spike in Irish borrowing costs.
The spread on the country's sovereign 10-year debt widened by 7 basis points over the German bund as investors fretted over the spiralling cost of dealing with twin fiscal and banking crises.
"There's been a widespread belief that resolving the banking crisis is going to be expensive and most people expected that government borrowing would increase substantially over the next few years," said Dermot O'Leary, chief economist with Goodbody Stockbrokers,
"(But) the scale of it may come as somewhat of a surprise and the speed being required."
In addition to the bailout, which will be funnelled through over the coming weeks, the Irish regulator has temporarily exempted Anglo from some capital requirements.
Its core tier 1 ratio sank to just 1.4 percent at the end of March but Anglo said it would rise to 6.4 percent following the funding injection.
The bank will buy back some outstanding subordinated debt to generate additional capital, matching a similar move by larger rival Bank of Ireland to take advantage of deeply discounted secondary prices.
Shares in Bank of Ireland and Allied Irish Banks initially dipped on Anglo's misfortunes but later recovered, with Allied up nearly 8 percent and Bank of Ireland 3 percent stronger.
Analysts said investors had taken some comfort from the regulator's lifting of some of Anglo's capital requirements.
SPECTACULAR FALL
A darling of investors during the economic boom, Anglo Irish's spectacular fall from grace highlighted how crony capitalism, property speculation and reckless lending had partly fuelled Ireland's heady growth and accelerated its decline.
Dublin was forced to take over the country's No. 3 bank in January after customer and shareholder confidence collapsed in the face of a string of scandals.
The fallout from the scandals damaged Ireland's reputation overseas, hiked its borrowing costs and prompted an overhaul of the country's system of financial regulation.
Anglo, whose fortunes are tied to a number of struggling property developers, took an impairment charge of 4.1 billion euros for the six months to end March and predicted loan losses for the three-year period to the end of September 2011 would spiral to 7.5 billion euros.
Anglo, which will be transferring its land and development book to the government's "bad bank" scheme for parking toxic assets, also warned that a further 10 percent fall in land and development assets could lead to an additional impairment charge of 1.5 billion euros.
The three-year outlook takes into account an estimated land and development writedown prior to its transfer to the bad bank, but additional impairments of 1.5-3.5 billions were possible under a range of further stress scenarios following the bad bank's creation, it said.
Anglo's bad debt outlook overshadows even the gloomy view of larger rivals.
Bank of Ireland, the country's No 1 lender by assets, expects its bad debt charge to total 6 billion euros for the three years to March 2011. No 2 Allied Irish Banks has said it will likely double its bad debt charge this year to 4.3 billion euros.
(Editing by Rupert Winchester, John Stonestreet)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: bcarrier on May 29, 2009, 02:51:41 PM
Developers were allowed to take out multiple loans secured on a single property.

This is being reported as if developers did something naughty and something similar to Lynn scandal went on...ie multiple first charges and forged documents.

I do not believe that is the case - and the whole issue of fixed charges, floating charges and personal guarantees is getting confused.

It appears that banks sought and obtained personal guarantees from directors  as a back up in the event of defaults on corporate borrowing ( ie if their first charge over specific asset was not enough to recover loan ) .

It is not at all unusual or irregular for an individual to give multiple personal guarantees ( although they should be avoided like the plague IMO) ....what does seem unusual is the level of reliance that was placed on these rather than fixed charges over other assets/property of the individuals concerned. It was piss poor risk management by the banks who now seem to want to place the blame on the borrower.

The state will get feck all from the guarantees too...I would expect most to be near men of straw as money will have made its way into trust structures during the good years .
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on June 02, 2009, 11:01:59 PM
A guy on Newtalk yesterday made a good analogy in explaining how much money has been put into Anglo Irish Bank by the Government to keep it afloat.

He said the money would buy 14 Luas lines in Dublin.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on June 08, 2009, 09:48:54 PM
Latvia's dramatic fall from grace (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8085007.stm)

Ireland's credit rating downgraded again (http://breakingnews.iol.ie/news/business/irelands-credit-rating-downgraded-again-414016.html)

Are we now on the slippery slope?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: tyronefan on June 08, 2009, 11:17:44 PM
bank of Ireland shares were 12 c a few weeks ago  now they are 2 euro  and almost the same with AIB

the ulster bank economist reckons we are past the worst of it according to todays papers   

Hope this is true
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: bcarrier on June 09, 2009, 11:25:32 AM
Peston had an interesting piece here

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2009/06/spanking_bank_investors.html .

Not sure if the guarantee prevents Ireland taking a similar approach but would have thought the BoI buying back in there own bonds at a discount was possible because holders of these fear Ireland might do the same  ?




Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on July 01, 2009, 06:18:40 PM
It's getting closer and closer.

We now have our very own debt clock.

http://www.financedublin.com/debtclock.php (http://www.financedublin.com/debtclock.php)

It's coming home,
It's coming home,
It's coming,
The IMF are coming home,
It's.....
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on July 01, 2009, 06:37:18 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on June 09, 2009, 11:25:32 AM
Peston had an interesting piece here

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2009/06/spanking_bank_investors.html .

Not sure if the guarantee prevents Ireland taking a similar approach but would have thought the BoI buying back in there own bonds at a discount was possible because holders of these fear Ireland might do the same  ?





haven't had time to read the article yet, but afaik Anglo, AIB and BOI have already been buying back their own bonds at significant discounts, that's partly why their share prices have rebounded a little (that and misplaced optimism) - think BOI made a billion and AIB possibly more.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: the Deel Rover on July 01, 2009, 09:49:15 PM
Quote from: muppet on July 01, 2009, 06:18:40 PM
It's getting closer and closer.

We now have our very own debt clock.

http://www.financedublin.com/debtclock.php (http://www.financedublin.com/debtclock.php)

It's coming home,
It's coming home,
It's coming,
The IMF are coming home,
It's.....


does the clock go back an hour in the winter ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on July 01, 2009, 09:51:18 PM
Quote from: the Deel Rover on July 01, 2009, 09:49:15 PM
Quote from: muppet on July 01, 2009, 06:18:40 PM
It's getting closer and closer.

We now have our very own debt clock.

http://www.financedublin.com/debtclock.php (http://www.financedublin.com/debtclock.php)

It's coming home,
It's coming home,
It's coming,
The IMF are coming home,
It's.....


does the clock go back an hour in the winter ?

Only if they shut Anglo.
Title: I asked her for credit, she answered my nay
Post by: passedit on July 02, 2009, 01:19:57 PM
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/moodys-cuts-irelands-credit-rating (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/moodys-cuts-irelands-credit-rating)
Quote
Moody's cuts Ireland's credit rating

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Credit-rating agency Moody's Investors Service on Thursday stripped Ireland of its Aaa government bond rating. The agency lowered the rating to Aa1 and said the outlook for Ireland remained negative. "The pronounced weakness in the economic activity has been translating into a severe deterioration of Ireland's public finances, and the country is set to emerge from the current economic crisis with a considerably higher debt burden for the foreseeable future," said Dietmar Hornung, a senior analyst in Moody's Sovereign Risk Group, in a news release.


Such a custom as yours I can get any day
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on July 22, 2009, 04:21:12 PM
http://www.examiner.ie/business/sngbsnidau/ (http://www.examiner.ie/business/sngbsnidau/)

By Conor Keane Business Editor
Wednesday, July 22, 2009

IRELAND will spend close to €3.5 billion – 11% of all tax collected – servicing a national debt of close to €92 billion this year, according to Bloxham Stockbrokers.

The National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA) raised a further €1bn in what appears to be its most successful bond auction so far this year, drawing bids of three to four times the bonds on offer, sending the premium demanded by investors for holding Irish debt to the lowest since mid-June.

As the national debt screams past the €66bn mark, heading for €92bn by the end of the year, it is expected that 11% of all tax collected will be needed to cover interest payments this year, jumping to 16%, on Goodbody estimates, next year and up from just 4.5% of all tax collected in 2007.

Bloxham analyst Alan McQuaid said that the NTMA's bond sales programme for 2009 effectively covers Ireland's funding needs of €20bn as announced in the Supplementary Budget on April 7 as well as refinancing a €5bn bond which matured in April.

"The agency has now raised a total of €16bn through three syndicated bond issues in January, February and June in addition to €5.7bn in five bond auctions held in the months of March through July. Another four auctions are due to be held from August to November to raise the remaining money," he said.

Mr McQuaid said there is no doubt investor risk appetite has picked up in recent months which has helped the NTMA.

He said: "However, we as a country shouldn't become complacent and believe that the answer to all our problems is to keep on borrowing. Quite simply, the huge levels of debt we are building up are unsustainable in the long-run.

"Ireland is now in a position where it needs to borrow more to fund a larger budgetary deficit, while paying higher costs for this borrowing.

"This means that ever increasing proportions of the country's tax revenues will be needed to service the national debt."

Mr McQuaid said the Government cannot afford to sit back and relax with regard to the Irish public finances.

"It has already taken the first steps on the road to sorting out the dire budgetary position by 2013. If it delivers on much needed spending cuts, then there is no reason why the NTMA should have any difficulty in selling government bonds in the months ahead, and why yield spreads over Germany can't narrow.

"However, failure to act on the report of An Bord Snip Nua will only increase the funding costs for the country and put an unnecessary financial burden on future generations," he added.

The 10-year Irish/German bond yield spread tightened to 198 basis points from 206 basis points before yesterday auction, the success of which raised the prospect that Dublin could soon start prefunding for its 2010 borrowing needs.

* See Ireland's national debt mount before your own eyes at: http://www.financedublin.com/debtclock.php

Read more: http://www.examiner.ie/business/sngbsnidau/#ixzz0M0B1E1PM
Title: The Muppet Show sing Nama Nama
Post by: muppet on July 30, 2009, 01:29:52 PM
http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/nama-legislation-to-be-published-today-420642.html (http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/nama-legislation-to-be-published-today-420642.html)

The legal framework drawn up to establish the National Assets Management Agency (NAMA) is due to be revealed later today.

The draft legislation was approved by the Cabinet following two days of discussion earlier this week.

One of the most important aspects of the bill will be the method used to value bad loans being transferred from Irish banks to NAMA.

The agency is the key part of the Government's plan to revive the Irish financial system by removing toxic debts from the books of the banks.

It is set to take control of around €90bn worth of loans given to property developers.

Most observers will be waiting to see how NAMA plans to value the assets on which these loans were based given the collapse of the property market in the past year.

The agency will not pay the current rock-bottom value of the assets, but will instead calculate the loan write-down based on a longer-term valuation.


The Bailout of the Developers has begun. Does anyone have any thoughts on this as we take pay cuts, get taxed to death and watch our own debts stay static but the Developers get bailed out?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Rossfan on July 30, 2009, 05:48:23 PM
I think you already know my thoughts on this ..the unholy Trinity of FF/Developers/Bankers fcuked up the economy by their greed and now everyone else has to pay for it for the next 2 generations.
Meanwhile the FFers/Bankers/Developers will live off the millions they made during the artificial bubble.

F ***ing C***S    the lot of them
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: bcarrier on July 30, 2009, 07:57:21 PM
GUBU
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on July 31, 2009, 09:11:03 AM
I've pretty much lost interest in what our governing party do as their total ineptness makes me sick, but, can we sit back and allow NAMA to happen?  There must be something that can be done to stop what is surely the stupidest idea since Baldrick had another cunning plan (and if memory serves me correctly he once paid a fortune for a turnip, although that may prove to have been better value than what we're getting).

What really annoys me is the absolute arrogance with which this plan has been pursued, althernatives have been mentioned, but FF seem unwilling to engage with any other parties on this, do recent election results not show them that at best they do not have a mandate from the majority of the population anymore?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Rossfan on July 31, 2009, 11:18:27 AM
Quote from: Bogball XV on July 31, 2009, 09:11:03 AM
).

What really annoys me is the absolute arrogance with which this plan has been pursued, althernatives have been mentioned, but FF seem unwilling to engage with any other parties on this,

You can bet your last € that they've engaged with their effin mates in the Bankers and Developers who caused the mess in the first place. >:(
I suppose there's no chance of them bailing out all the poor devils who have massive mortgages of anything up to three times the real value of the houses they were stampeded into buying during the Bubble?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: full back on July 31, 2009, 11:19:53 AM
Quote from: Rossfan on July 31, 2009, 11:18:27 AM
Quote from: Bogball XV on July 31, 2009, 09:11:03 AM
).

What really annoys me is the absolute arrogance with which this plan has been pursued, althernatives have been mentioned, but FF seem unwilling to engage with any other parties on this,

You can bet your last € that they've engaged with their effin mates in the Bankers and Developers who caused the mess in the first place. >:(
I suppose there's no chance of them bailing out all the poor devils who have massive mortgages of anything up to three times the real value of the houses they were stampeded into buying during the Bubble?


Stampeded into buying ???

Who made anyone buy?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: ludermor on July 31, 2009, 11:49:21 AM
Interesting to see how this pans out, but its to be done quickly.
Developers are scared shitless of NAMA and cannot move on any work at the minute. Not all developers are bad guys but all developers are crippled at the minute. Something has to be done quickly to start things moving, their are small subbies and suppliers going bust every week at the minute cause money is heeld by the banks and this is for work done in good faith by the subbie/builder.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: bcarrier on July 31, 2009, 12:42:40 PM
NAMA has been created to prevent a complete nationalisation of the banks which are effectively bust.

It is the shareholders in the banks who are being bailed out .




Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: An Gaeilgoir on July 31, 2009, 01:16:33 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on July 30, 2009, 05:48:23 PM
I think you already know my thoughts on this ..the unholy Trinity of FF/Developers/Bankers fcuked up the economy by their greed and now everyone else has to pay for it for the next 2 generations.
Meanwhile the FFers/Bankers/Developers will live off the millions they made during the artificial bubble.

F ***ing C***S    the lot of them

it wasn't just the banks or developers who fucked up this country, the nation as a whole lived on credit way beyond their means, new cars, two holidays a year, designer gear to beat the band and so on. To say its banks and developers is nonsence, they are just one factor in the crash.  As for NAMA, it is going to take over all loans over 5 million good and bad, so to call it a "bad bank" is incorrect. There is a fund of 10 billion that will be used to finish off the sites half built and it will then sell of the finished units. Anyone who thinks that NAMA is a bail out for developers hasn't got a clue of what is hapening in the real world. A lot of people are going to loose a lot when NAMA comes calling including their homes. No sympathy for them really, if you live or borrow beyond your means well then be prepared for what comes, and that goes for ordinary homeowners too.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on July 31, 2009, 02:08:34 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on July 31, 2009, 12:42:40 PM
NAMA has been created to prevent a complete nationalisation of the banks which are effectively bust.

It is the shareholders in the banks who are being bailed out .


That is only part of it.

While there is no doubt this is to avoid the banks collapsing it also has the (politically pleasant) side effect of stopping the banks from marching the developers into the High Court and forcing them to pay up. This will buy time (possibly over a decade) for the cash strapped developers and almost certainly save most of them from ruin.

It makes no attempt to deal with ordinary mortgage holders many of whom also face ruin and who also have non-performing loans with the banks. It would be interesting to compare how much non-performing debt the two groups represent and to try to figure out why one group's debt is being taken off the banks while the others proceeds as normal, with court applications from the bank, repossession etc. NAMA will save no ordinary person from ruin.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Rossfan on July 31, 2009, 03:26:46 PM
Quote from: muppet on July 31, 2009, 02:08:34 PM
NAMA will save no ordinary person from ruin.

Of course it wont but it will save the well heeled and well connected and beggar two or three generations.
But sure what matter once FF look after their mates.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on July 31, 2009, 03:36:14 PM
Quote from: An Gaeilgoir on July 31, 2009, 01:16:33 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on July 30, 2009, 05:48:23 PM
I think you already know my thoughts on this ..the unholy Trinity of FF/Developers/Bankers fcuked up the economy by their greed and now everyone else has to pay for it for the next 2 generations.
Meanwhile the FFers/Bankers/Developers will live off the millions they made during the artificial bubble.

F ***ing C***S    the lot of them

it wasn't just the banks or developers who fucked up this country, the nation as a whole lived on credit way beyond their means, new cars, two holidays a year, designer gear to beat the band and so on. To say its banks and developers is nonsence, they are just one factor in the crash.  As for NAMA, it is going to take over all loans over 5 million good and bad, so to call it a "bad bank" is incorrect. There is a fund of 10 billion that will be used to finish off the sites half built and it will then sell of the finished units. Anyone who thinks that NAMA is a bail out for developers hasn't got a clue of what is hapening in the real world. A lot of people are going to loose a lot when NAMA comes calling including their homes. No sympathy for them really, if you live or borrow beyond your means well then be prepared for what comes, and that goes for ordinary homeowners too.

An Gaeilgoir the Government can change the terms of reference of Nama any time without recourse to anyone. How do you think that will pan out?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: carribbear on July 31, 2009, 03:42:06 PM
Quote from: An Gaeilgoir on July 31, 2009, 01:16:33 PM
it wasn't just the banks or developers who fucked up this country, the nation as a whole lived on credit way beyond their means, new cars, two holidays a year, designer gear to beat the band and so on. To say its banks and developers is nonsence, they are just one factor in the crash.  As for NAMA, it is going to take over all loans over 5 million good and bad, so to call it a "bad bank" is incorrect. There is a fund of 10 billion that will be used to finish off the sites half built and it will then sell of the finished units. Anyone who thinks that NAMA is a bail out for developers hasn't got a clue of what is hapening in the real world. A lot of people are going to loose a lot when NAMA comes calling including their homes. No sympathy for them really, if you live or borrow beyond your means well then be prepared for what comes, and that goes for ordinary homeowners too.
The big developers should be out on the street, stripped of all assets and investigations to see if they siphoned funds to other companies or relatives. They should be repossesed also.
Any ordinary Joe Soap who cant afford their mortgages should either be given a mortgage holiday and if they cant raise the funds at a later date have their house sold or the deeds taken off them and allow them to rent. I dont have much sympathy for the greedy folk who bought beyond their means.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on July 31, 2009, 03:48:01 PM
Quote from: carribbear on July 31, 2009, 03:42:06 PM
Quote from: An Gaeilgoir on July 31, 2009, 01:16:33 PM
it wasn't just the banks or developers who fucked up this country, the nation as a whole lived on credit way beyond their means, new cars, two holidays a year, designer gear to beat the band and so on. To say its banks and developers is nonsence, they are just one factor in the crash.  As for NAMA, it is going to take over all loans over 5 million good and bad, so to call it a "bad bank" is incorrect. There is a fund of 10 billion that will be used to finish off the sites half built and it will then sell of the finished units. Anyone who thinks that NAMA is a bail out for developers hasn't got a clue of what is hapening in the real world. A lot of people are going to loose a lot when NAMA comes calling including their homes. No sympathy for them really, if you live or borrow beyond your means well then be prepared for what comes, and that goes for ordinary homeowners too.
The big developers should be out on the street, stripped of all assets and investigations to see if they siphoned funds to other companies or relatives. They should be repossesed also.
Any ordinary Joe Soap who cant afford their mortgages should either be given a mortgage holiday and if they cant raise the funds at a later date have their house sold or the deeds taken off them and allow them to rent. I dont have much sympathy for the greedy folk who bought beyond their means.

Everyone with a mortgage bought beyond their means if they lose their jobs. Hindsight is wonderful.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: carribbear on July 31, 2009, 03:53:11 PM
Quote from: muppet on July 31, 2009, 03:48:01 PM
Everyone with a mortgage bought beyond their means if they lose their jobs. Hindsight is wonderful.
I agree with that but theres a lot of folk who bought way way out of their ballpark. Makes me question the stupidity of folk who dont think "what if".
Mistakes like that deserve to be punished.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: bcarrier on July 31, 2009, 03:59:13 PM
Quote from: muppet on July 31, 2009, 02:08:34 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on July 31, 2009, 12:42:40 PM
NAMA has been created to prevent a complete nationalisation of the banks which are effectively bust.

It is the shareholders in the banks who are being bailed out .


That is only part of it.

While there is no doubt this is to avoid the banks collapsing it also has the (politically pleasant) side effect of stopping the banks from marching the developers into the High Court and forcing them to pay up. This will buy time (possibly over a decade) for the cash strapped developers and almost certainly save most of them from ruin.


I don't get it. At one stage there looked to be some  potential for developers to buy in their own defaulting loans at a discount to book value from NAMA ( i know some are already doing this in the UK with the british banks) but does Lenihan's blacklist not stop this ?

IMO FF are terrified of bank nationalisation and inevitable politicising of subsequent decision making . If there is a pleasant side effect it is that pensioners and middle Ireland  who will have lost practically all instead of their entire AIB/BOI nesteggs.
Title: Even the judiciary are in league
Post by: Bogball XV on August 04, 2009, 04:39:30 PM
I can't believe that the supreme court would grant this - it's a f**king joke - a cynical person would say that the establishment is trying to ensure that Carroll's empire survives until NAMA.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/0804/breaking22.htm
Title: Re: Even the judiciary are in league
Post by: orangeman on August 04, 2009, 05:16:37 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on August 04, 2009, 04:39:30 PM
I can't believe that the supreme court would grant this - it's a f**king joke - a cynical person would say that the establishment is trying to ensure that Carroll's empire survives until NAMA.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/0804/breaking22.htm


You don't even have to be cynical to think this.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Rossfan on August 04, 2009, 05:34:10 PM
They'll get all their loans written off on forfeiting the lands in question then buy back the lands at a third of the value of the loans with the slate wiped clean.
Nothing like the oul Law for looking after the well heeled. >:(
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: armaghniac on August 04, 2009, 05:43:42 PM
QuoteThey'll get all their loans written off

The loan is not written off, the loan remains until you pay it off. Handing over the property may reduce the loan, just as if you handed back your house, but if the property is not worth the loan you still have to pay it off. Hopefully these people can be prohibited from having any further property dealings until they discharge their debt.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on August 04, 2009, 05:58:20 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on August 04, 2009, 05:43:42 PM
QuoteThey'll get all their loans written off

The loan is not written off, the loan remains until you pay it off. Handing over the property may reduce the loan, just as if you handed back your house, but if the property is not worth the loan you still have to pay it off. Hopefully these people can be prohibited from having any further property dealings until they discharge their debt.
but that would prove counterproductive, if we were to disallow these captains of industry, these risk taking entrepreneurs, these imaginative and creative genuises from partaking in the market, just who would or could provide the creative spark needed to get this damned country back on her feet again?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: tyronefan on August 04, 2009, 06:13:56 PM
from what I have read  Carroll has personally guaranteed a large portion of these loans so he just cant walk away

He will lose everything he has including his family home

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on August 04, 2009, 06:25:56 PM
Quote from: tyronefan on August 04, 2009, 06:13:56 PM
from what I have read  Carroll has personally guaranteed a large portion of these loans so he just cant walk away

He will lose everything he has including his family home


The point is that in normal circumstances the various banks would already have taken possession of the assets of the companies over which they hold charges etc, there'd be a mad rush by them to try and secure their own bit of turf, but, they want to hold off and sell their loans on to NAMA, thus we as taxpayers have to bear the loss whilst the irresponsible lenders get a fools pardon.
It's not about Carroll personally, but given the gambles he's taken over the years his family home etc had to be on the line, after all what paid for these assets in the first place?  Also, one would imagine there might be one or two assets that aren't covered by any Personal Guarantees (which incidentally may not be worth all that much anyway).
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Rossfan on August 04, 2009, 06:29:50 PM
Quote from: tyronefan on August 04, 2009, 06:13:56 PM
from what I have read  Carroll has personally guaranteed a large portion of these loans so he just cant walk away

He will lose everything he has including his family home


I suspect them bucks will have plenty salted away in special places that can't be touched. ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: orangeman on August 04, 2009, 06:49:53 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on August 04, 2009, 06:29:50 PM
Quote from: tyronefan on August 04, 2009, 06:13:56 PM
from what I have read  Carroll has personally guaranteed a large portion of these loans so he just cant walk away

He will lose everything he has including his family home


I suspect them bucks will have plenty salted away in special places that can't be touched. ;)
[/b]



Apparently NOT in Caroll's case.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Lone Shark on August 04, 2009, 07:23:08 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on August 04, 2009, 05:58:20 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on August 04, 2009, 05:43:42 PM
QuoteThey'll get all their loans written off

The loan is not written off, the loan remains until you pay it off. Handing over the property may reduce the loan, just as if you handed back your house, but if the property is not worth the loan you still have to pay it off. Hopefully these people can be prohibited from having any further property dealings until they discharge their debt.
but that would prove counterproductive, if we were to disallow these captains of industry, these risk taking entrepreneurs, these imaginative and creative genuises from partaking in the market, just who would or could provide the creative spark needed to get this damned country back on her feet again?

In fairness Bogball, I think you're being sarcastic here, but the problem is that there are those out there who subscribe to this view of "an entrepreneurial class", as if they are a seperate breed born apart. Secondly, there remains the perception in this country that the ability to execute a "stroke" is somehow equivalent to the real thing, the ability to create wealth by creating a product or service that serves a unique market need.

In fairness to the Supreme Court, all they have basically done is ask for more time to consider this, but crucially, by hopefully going ahead with the receivership next week, they still allow for an actual firesale of assets before NAMA is enshrined in the national statute. That by itself should expose some of the airy-fairy numbers that NAMA is likely to work with to the masses, people who have this vague feeling of being robbed, but for the moment can't quite put their finger on how. My big concern is that AIB/RBOS or whoever decides to buy off ACC by next week, so as to prevent this receivership going ahead. If that happens, and right now it looks like it will, then we have a big problem. However I don't blame the supreme court for not acting rashly. I've a sneaking suspicion that we're going to need the judiviary in ways we never imagined in the coming five years, so them showing a little consideration is no bad thing.

As an aside, there is a strong possibility that Justice Kelly will have saved each and every one of us the equivalent of a €25k personal loan with his decision on Thursday - so kudos to him.

In my less angry moments, I can accept that something has to be done, and equally I can expect that aside from a quenching of the thirst for vengeance, seeing banks and bankers disintegrate is likely to be counter productive. We do need banks and there is a logical case for saying that we may as well stick with the existing ones. However they need to act differently than they have before, and for the life of me I can't fathom what is being done to ensure that the next time we get a similar opportunity to spend our way into poverty, we don't repeat the very same steps. Certainly the main men are talking a big game, but we don't seem to have any greater transparency, any greater eyes or claws within the Central Bank (who seems to have nothing left to do these days from what I can make out) or indeed any real improvement in the way we do business. Even the NAMA legislation itself has a few conspicuous-by-their-absence clauses, not to mention a few sections that a constitutional lawyer worth their salt would drive a bus through. Above all, it's cloaked in secrecy - the one thing that would never be permitted in Sweden, which we are supposedly modelling our actions upon.

It's fair to say that the vast majority of this country attended the party, so there's probably not a huge degree of unfairness in the fact that the hangover is being felt all over. However this government currently has all the credibility of a drunken antisocial yob - and if a person like that asked you to close your eyes and open wide, all the while assuring you that what they were doing was giving you solpadeine, I'd still prefer to have one eye on what's going on. The possibility that you might get a bit of rohypnol instead and wake up in a bath of ice with with a sore backdoor and no kidneys left is still on the table.

What I'm saying is that even though people were all to blame for it all to a certain extent, that's no reason to leave our guard down now and take what's coming without being pretty sure that it's a step in the right direction, and if it's just the same with ye, I'd prefer to take my medicine from a new doctor rather than the dodgy guy who sold me the unlabelled hooch.  
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Bord na Mona man on August 04, 2009, 07:34:57 PM
Unfortunately one aim of Nama will be to put a false floor on a collapsing property market, because of some notional "long term value" these toxic property loans supposedly have.
We'll all be opening our wallets to try and achieve this aim.

Tom Parlon, former PD and former champion of free markets, doesn't want to the market to decide the true value of property after all.
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/0804/1224251960911.html (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/0804/1224251960911.html)

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: armaghniac on August 04, 2009, 11:21:16 PM
Quotebut that would prove counterproductive, if we were to disallow these captains of industry, these risk taking entrepreneurs, these imaginative and creative genuises from partaking in the market, just who would or could provide the creative spark needed to get this damned country back on her feet again?

While you are being sarcastic, I think that genuine entrepreneurs should be encouraged and I wouldn't criticise any real investor for failing, but these people were not inventing anything or exporting anything and there is no public interest in encouraging them. Many's a real business will run into hard times because of the mess they have made.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on August 05, 2009, 01:41:53 AM
Whilst the supreme court are only looking for a week to consider the argument, that week could be crucial for Carroll, each time he delays he gets a little closer to NAMA or as you point out, the possibility of ACC being bought off - an excellent piece of business on their part if they suceed (although perhaps we must query why they were in that position in the first place). 
I hear great things about Justice Kelly on a regular basis, principally that he's the only judge who actually understands financial dealings (Laffoy a little bit too) and last week proved that he may be the real deal -  i don't have the same confidence in the supreme court, although since the argument must be on a point of law, they shouldn't fcuk up.

I've just had a great idea for a venture that might get us out of this sorry mess btw, I was thinking that we could maybe grant planning permission to everyone in the country for their gardens, they could then develop their gardens, either themselves or sell it on to a builder, or alternatively they could just release some equity on their new asset from the banks.  We would create hundreds of thousands of jobs in construction, in spar shops and in the financial and legal industries, with the huge release of money into the economy, consumer spending would rocket again, old people would be safe into their retirement (they'd have the rental income from their new garden house which they could also sell at any time).  Quite a brilliant plan I think you'll all agree, the only drawback being that unemployment amongst gardeners might soar, but they could reskill as the tanaiste might say.  Am I a visionary too??
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: FermGael on August 06, 2009, 10:04:27 AM
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/irelan...4251960911.html (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/irelan...4251960911.html)

QuoteA "fire sale" of residential or commercial property could result in prices falling by 50 per cent or more, the head of the Construction Industry Federation (CIF) has claimed. The organisation's director general Tom Parlon said the prospect of major banks seeking recovery of their debts from developers would have a disastrous effect on property prices and the economy. He said the whole rationale of establishing the National Asset Management Agency (Nama) was to prevent such a scenario.
[deleted]
Speaking on Morning Ireland on RTÉ yesterday, Mr Parlon said [...] "The reason that Nama was set up was to keep liquidity and to avoid fire sales. If it was the case that a very significant amount of residential and commercial property was to come on the market, certainly it would reduce the value," [...] "Any fire sale now without liquidity or confidence in the market could mean that property prices could be halved. If Nama was delayed further other financial institutions would go down this route. It would have a devastating effect on property prices and on the whole economy,"

House prices are 100% overvalued, and NAMA is designed to prop them up.  God forbid if they fall any further.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: bcarrier on August 06, 2009, 11:23:54 AM
This could get incredibly messy.

I suspect few people understand residual property valuations but we are going to hear a lot about them in next twelve months. NAMA will be doing little else but looking at them.

I still cant believe that there has been no serious discussion amongst politicians about the impact of fiscal policy on residual property value.  

If they didnt want to take banks into public ownership then residual value of property could have been increased by scrapping VAT and stamp duty ( it could always be reintroduced later) . This would have improved bank and potentially developer positions ( although this could have been closed off with a special windfall tax if any had profits resulting from the change) . The unintended consequence might have been a further fall of 20% in second hand homes - but this will happen anyway IMO.

There are no institutions needed to implement these changes but no political will ( or wit) to cut these taxes . 

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: An Gaeilgoir on August 06, 2009, 11:53:14 AM
Quote from: bcarrier on August 06, 2009, 11:23:54 AM
This could get incredibly messy.

I suspect few people understand residual property valuations but we are going to hear a lot about them in next twelve months. NAMA will be doing little else but looking at them.

I still cant believe that there has been no serious discussion amongst politicians about the impact of fiscal policy on residual property value.  

If they didnt want to take banks into public ownership then residual value of property could have been increased by scrapping VAT and stamp duty ( it could always be reintroduced later) . This would have improved bank and potentially developer positions ( although this could have been closed off with a special windfall tax if any had profits resulting from the change) . The unintended consequence might have been a further fall of 20% in second hand homes - but this will happen anyway IMO.

There are no institutions needed to implement these changes but no political will ( or wit) to cut these taxes . 



The commission on Taxation report out in September, i think, will be calling for the scraqpping of stamp duty and the introduction of a property tax using price band widths, a bit like car tax and engine sizes.  Again like bord snip these findings will be made public and will come into play in Autumn's budget. The commissions report will no doubt be used by the government to say its not us who are making the changes but the experts on taxation.
Title: zoe goes down
Post by: bcarrier on August 11, 2009, 08:31:29 PM

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/0811/breaking6.html?via=mr

what for nama now ...
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: FermGael on August 11, 2009, 08:50:47 PM
The bank that has not agreed to the deal will have huge leverage and will be able to get a better price for there debt from the other banks and the government, sorry i mean the Bank of Ireland

There is no way they will let the house of cards topple
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on August 11, 2009, 09:42:47 PM
It seems that i was a little premature with criticism of the judiciary, this was the right decision and carroll's argument and indeed 'business plan' was a joke (from what i have heard about it).  It seems as though ACC will be the big winners here, it's hard to see any of the others allowing a receiver to be appointed and presumably one of the big 2 will purchase ACC's interest.
The interesting thing here though is that perhaps this same situation will be played out all over the country over the next month or so, could we have many of the smaller lenders try and extricate themselves in this way from their various loans?  If NAMA weren't so near we probably would.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on August 12, 2009, 12:01:35 PM
Quotebusiness plan' was a joke (from what i have heard about it)
Must have had consultancy from Albert the original one pager man. Yep from what I heard his business plan was all of one page. The arrogance of these guys is unreal

Quotepresumably one of the big 2 will purchase ACC's interest.
Agree 136 million is chicken feed compared to their exposure and seeing as they have allowed interest to be rolled up for up to 7 years in some instances.

Even better article
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1017303.shtml (http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1017303.shtml)


Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Billys Boots on August 12, 2009, 01:18:27 PM
It's going to be a long winter.  :-\
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on August 13, 2009, 09:35:44 AM
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2009/0813/1224252497177.html (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2009/0813/1224252497177.html)

What does it take for people in this country to get angry??
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Billys Boots on August 13, 2009, 09:46:56 AM
QuoteWhat does it take for people in this country to get angry??

There's no point in people being angry until General Election day.  It's the only opportunity we get to express our feelings in a way that matters - and what happens.  We get 18 months of promises that we're (collectively) stupid enough to swallow, despite all the evidence to the contrary.  We deserve everything we get. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: lynchbhoy on August 13, 2009, 09:57:19 AM
Quote from: An Gaeilgoir on August 06, 2009, 11:53:14 AM
Quote from: bcarrier on August 06, 2009, 11:23:54 AM
This could get incredibly messy.

I suspect few people understand residual property valuations but we are going to hear a lot about them in next twelve months. NAMA will be doing little else but looking at them.

I still cant believe that there has been no serious discussion amongst politicians about the impact of fiscal policy on residual property value.  

If they didnt want to take banks into public ownership then residual value of property could have been increased by scrapping VAT and stamp duty ( it could always be reintroduced later) . This would have improved bank and potentially developer positions ( although this could have been closed off with a special windfall tax if any had profits resulting from the change) . The unintended consequence might have been a further fall of 20% in second hand homes - but this will happen anyway IMO.

There are no institutions needed to implement these changes but no political will ( or wit) to cut these taxes . 



The commission on Taxation report out in September, i think, will be calling for the scraqpping of stamp duty and the introduction of a property tax using price band widths, a bit like car tax and engine sizes.  Again like bord snip these findings will be made public and will come into play in Autumn's budget. The commissions report will no doubt be used by the government to say its not us who are making the changes but the experts on taxation.

was expecting that there will be calls for the dropping or at least a big reduction in stamp duty.
It would make sense in a lot of ways.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: lynchbhoy on August 13, 2009, 09:59:25 AM
Quote from: Declan on August 12, 2009, 12:01:35 PM
Quotebusiness plan' was a joke (from what i have heard about it)
Must have had consultancy from Albert the original one pager man. Yep from what I heard his business plan was all of one page. The arrogance of these guys is unreal

Quotepresumably one of the big 2 will purchase ACC's interest.
Agree 136 million is chicken feed compared to their exposure and seeing as they have allowed interest to be rolled up for up to 7 years in some instances.

Even better article
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1017303.shtml (http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1017303.shtml)
these guys have been used to not having to jump through the hoops and very little in safeguarding-esque checks to ensure all doesnt go belly up, so obv still operate in that way.
The legislation was a joke (see fnancial regulator and his regulations ! ! ) but some people like Judge Kelly are making a stand for the people !
Fair play to him.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: tyronefan on August 13, 2009, 11:49:30 AM
not much of a stand for the people, only thing that happens here is that acc get their money which goes out of the country and the rest of the banks are covered by nama which means that the tax payer picks up the tab.

By him going out of business means that the subbies or suppliers will not get their money

If anybody is going to get their money the only way it will happen if at all is to let the company try to trade out of this.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on August 13, 2009, 12:02:52 PM
QuoteBy him going out of business means that the subbies or suppliers will not get their money

But the banks have already taken care of a lot of his creditors.

The reality is that our Dept of Finance and Minister haven't a f**king clue what they are doing and we are completely banjaxed for years to come. some relevant excerpts from Finfacts this morning

Lenihan, NAMA versus the "leave it alone liquidationists" or potential saviours of the Irish economy

Finance Minister Brian Lenihan announced in late July, before heading off on a month's holiday, that he would disclose on September 16th, the pricing mechanism for the toxic property assets/loans, which will be transferred from Irish banks to the planned "bad bank" NAMA (National Assets Management Agency). He said value would be based on "long term economic value," but while he could dismiss opponents of the plan  as "leave it alone liquidationists", like a man trying to maintain a beach footing in the face of an incoming tide, the ground is also shifting on the NAMA value issue. The opponents of the current plan may well have done a significant service for the nation, by the time the Department of Finance returns to the issue later this month.

While a Department of Finance spokesperson dismissed the Supreme Court refusal on Tuesday, to grant the Zoe group, which owes almost €3 billion to its lenders, court protection, as having no consequence for the NAMA process, it would be absolutely bizarre if that turned out to be the case.
Given what was at stake, the Supreme Court was presented with a one page valuation summary and a claim that a huge deficit could be converted into a profit in 3 years.
UCD professor Karl Whelan writes in the Irish Times today:"... it could be argued Carroll's property empire might be in worse shape than those of other developers. It seems perfectly possible, however, the opposite is the case. His properties mainly consist of Dublin projects likely to get developed in years ahead. Consider, in contrast, the position of those developers who have pinned hopes on developing the proverbial field outside Mullingar."
How could Lenihan  support a low discount on the loans, if a significant number of developers are so under water that his name could be linked for decades to a long period  of economic stagnation?
€90 billion worth of loans is a big gamble to assume, where individual developers may end up having a smaller so-called "haircut" than the taxpayer?
The Irish Independent reports today that members of the Green Party are increasingly uneasy about the NAMA plan and while the Green leader John Gormley, is still happy to remain on Planet Bertie, the NAMA deal would likely put the tin hat on the Faustian bargain, which he agreed with then Taoiseach Bertie Ahern, in 2007.

In the third volume of The Memoirs of Herbert Hoover: The Great Depression, published in 1952, the former president tried to shift blame for the failure of public policy to others, some of them, by then dead.
He wrote in respect of his Secretary of the Treasury, Andrew Mellon on a conversation, which the two apparently had in 1931, when Mellon was 76 years of age: "...the 'leave it alone liquidationists' headed by [my] Secretary of the Treasury Mellon, who felt that government must keep its hands off and let the slump liquidate itself. Mr. Mellon had only one formula: "Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate." He insisted that, when the people get an inflation brainstorm, the only way to get it out of their blood is to let it collapse. He held that even a panic was not altogether a bad thing. He said: 'It will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up the wrecks from less competent people'..."
Following the information provided by Zoe's Liam Carroll, to the Supreme Court, even though skimpy, it looks likely that there will be some significant liquidations. However, the argument of economists such as Karl Whelan, Brian Lucey and Patrick Honohan, is not that the banks should not be bailed-out with the State having an upside potential as happened in Sweden in the 1990s, but the current plan looks like a bailout of developers, with a  taxpayers likely exposed to a long period of losses.
Tolstoy's opening sentence of his classic novel, Anna Karenina: "Happy families are all alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way...," may be true but big property crashes have a number of consistencies. One is that when a crash follows a big boom, it takes many years for a market to recover. 
TCD professor Brian Lucey wrote in the Irish Times last month: "OECD evidence suggests that bubbles deflate in about twice the time that they inflated. A reasonable estimate of the Irish property bubble would be that the inflationary period was the four or five years prior to 2007. That would imply that we are nowhere near the bottom and that we could in fact see at least another three or four years of declining prices. Purchasing at current market values might then be overpaying for these assets. This is reinforced by other OECD research that suggests that nominal property prices can take upwards of 15-20 years to recover to their bubble peak. This would suggest that it may be 2030 or thereabouts before we see prices back to 2007 values."
Again, given our peak at 2007 we have to look forward to NAMA recovering peak valuations at around, hmmm... 2026... But wait - not all corrections were steep enough to match ours... so let's isolate those that were:
   Australia 1980s: 18 years;
   Finland 1990s: 16 years;
   Germany 1970s: 36 years;
   Italy 1981: 29 years;
   Japan 1990: 20 years;
   Netherlands, 1978: 21 years;
   Norway 1987: 17 years;
   Sweden 1979: 31 years;
   UK 1973: 15 years
Which yields an average of 22.6 years, pushing our recovery to beyond 2030. By this standard, a break even value for NAMA should be based on something closer to 15-16 years, if we are to take a 20-25% haircut on current book values of the loans."
Finfacts said in July that residential site costs as a percentage of total selling costs were about 15% before the boom in Ireland and the US.
As in the US, site costs moved towards 50%.
A US Federal Reserve study on earlier crashes, says it took a full ten years for the real land price index to return to the level at its previous peak in many cities. In a number of large cities - - including Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Providence, RI, and Sacramento - - real land prices did not reach their 1990 peaks until 2001 or 2002, well into the recent housing boom.
So with domestic funding impaired for at least a decade and the UK also struggling with debt, how will the debts be repaid if projects cannot be completed or started?
NAMA will be able to borrow up to €10 billion but given the length of time, it will take for the property market to return to balance, it is likely to be primarily an undertaker.
The national debt was €65 billion at the end of June, up from €50 billion last December.
The one known known is that it is going to get much bigger. As for the unknowns, decisions taken in coming weeks, will be crucial
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: ludermor on August 13, 2009, 12:07:39 PM
TF a lot of subbies have already gone bust on the back of developments on hold by Carroll, the job beside the Point Village has taken 3 subbies that i know of. Carroll was paying 60 cents in the euro 18months so i have no idea what he has been paying since then, i was talking to 2 subbies whose heads were wrecked at teh time as to weither to accept the offer ( it was tabled as a take it or leave it) , one of them took it against his better judgement at the time but it turned out tot he right move, the other lad didnt take it and i havent heard from him since, no idea if he survived
Title: NAMA for Muppets (or at least this particular one)
Post by: muppet on August 13, 2009, 06:34:01 PM
My furry little head hurts as there isn't enough brain to get my head around NAMA. I would like those posters who even half understand it and can peek into the future to give me some idea what will happen.

Here is what I think I have at the moment:

Thanks to the banking crisis the banks each have dangerous levels of loans versus the amounts they each have on deposit. Realistically the banks can't start lending until the ratio of the loans to deposits is at a safer level, this is also now every governments policy including our own. Despite silly calls by various ministers for banks to start lending again this can't and won't happen to any viable level until something is done about the aforementioned ratio.

The banks have massive amounts of developer debts on their books which are almost certainly not going to be serviced and are impossible to put a value on. These debts are ensuring that the loan to deposits ratio remains the major stumbling block to banks lending again.

If the banks can't or won't lend the economy has no chance of growing and we get all the associated problems such as deflation with the ensuing unemployment etc.

So the government decided on the 'Bad Bank' strategy to take all these (property based) toxic debts off the banks. This should in theory dramatically improve the loan to deposits ratios of the various banks and they should start lending again which will hopefully stop the economy contracting and begin to grow again.

Way way down the line, when property values recover, NAMA on behalf of the government will recover the cost of the exercise.

Thus they are going with NAMA.

That is where my very basic understanding completely runs aground.

The logistics of NAMA (some sort of bonds issued by the Government to the banks), the staggering size of NAMA (they are talking about €90 Billion), the attempt by NAMA to set a floor on property prices (can a government do that successfully and still have an open market for property?), the fact that extreme right wingers like Tom Parlon are behind the nationalisation of huge parts of land of the State, the likelihood that property prices won't recover for a very long time and the fact that we as taxpayers will have to pay for all of this for up to three decades has my head spinning.

Some developers are whinging and threatening to sue all round them but if at the moment they can't pay their debts, and their assets are worthless, how can NAMA valuing their assets at an artificially inflated figure be a bad thing? The only logic I can see is that at the moment they have the banks over a barrel and are repaying nothing and are just hoping for the best. Thus they don't want NAMA to happen which will force them to crystallise their losses even if only to an artificial level. (If this is what they are at they should be shot for treason). Am I missing something else?  

Add in the fact that this scheme has been dreamt up by the same people who lead us blindfold into this mess. Yes there were international factors, but our great leaders have created our own uniquely Irish flavoured mess. How can we trust them now?

Finally, what happens if NAMA doesn't work? Obviously the banks will have to be nationalised, which the last big gamble before NAMA (i.e. the bank guarantee) was supposed to prevent, but what happens to the property values and what happens to the taxpayer?

If the bank guarantee was a huge gamble, is NAMA double or quits?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: The Wedger on August 13, 2009, 07:32:22 PM
Nama flowchart  ;D ;D ;D

(http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2452/3813875003_7e58e1ddc3_o.jpg)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: comethekingdom on August 13, 2009, 10:32:57 PM
Excuse my ignorance of the whole thing but can the Government set up a bank of its own to lend to ordinary honest folk who want to run their businesses and are not in for the quick buck like the greedy bastard developers?  Then, let the banks in the dire shite that have no one to blame only themselves take all their developer cronies to court, take everything they have left off them, put them on the dole and if that all dosent work out just go to the wall peacefully and leave us all alone?
That way everybody gets what they deserve - and the poor ordinary PAYE workers wont be sorting ou this mess for decades to come!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: tyronefan on August 14, 2009, 08:55:35 AM
According to a friend of mine who works for one of the major banks, he told me that the banks have loans out at a ratio of 5 - 1 ( 5 euros loan out for every 1 euro on deposit). The industry standard is 2 - 1 and he reckons that the banks will not lend out money until they come close to that figure again.

Nama will bring money into the bank and bring the ratio down but there is nothing in nama to ensure that the banks will start lending again.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: bcarrier on August 14, 2009, 09:11:31 AM
As excellent as the Nama flow chart is there are a few loops missing.

There should be two from "Fortunes" bubble

one back to "Greedy bastard banks" bubble with " squandered by buying shares in"  and
another to " overvalued properties " with word "squandered " there again.

Anyhow the government and bloated public sector get off too light in this analysis . The activities of the greedy bastard developers generated  tax receipts ( stamp duty, vat, CGT) that were used to fund unsustainable and continuing public sector costs.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: the Deel Rover on August 14, 2009, 09:32:01 AM
any one see primetime last night it said that only 30 developers are responsible fro the 90billion write off surely it can't be that few or can it   ???
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: ludermor on August 14, 2009, 09:44:48 AM
i think they said the top 30 are responsible for the most but said up to 1000 developers owe over 10million which is a staggering figure.
Did you see the union lad ( joe o connor?) and the economist from trinity talking about the prosoped social welfare cuts? The union lad went on the normal rant about the banks buyout and nama but when the economist tried to explain that we didnt physically have the money for nama he just didnt understand, he thought there was a big bag of money we could be using to pay out on social welfare.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: the Deel Rover on August 14, 2009, 10:00:19 AM
Quote from: ludermor on August 14, 2009, 09:44:48 AM
i think they said the top 30 are responsible for the most but said up to 1000 developers owe over 10million which is a staggering figure.
Did you see the union lad ( joe o connor?) and the economist from trinity talking about the prosoped social welfare cuts? The union lad went on the normal rant about the banks buyout and nama but when the economist tried to explain that we didnt physically have the money for nama he just didnt understand, he thought there was a big bag of money we could be using to pay out on social welfare.

Aren't all these cutbacks just a drop in the ocean it said last night that the government is borrowing €400 million per week surely this can't go on. it looks to me like we are well and truly fcuked .
Title: Re: NAMA for Muppets (or at least this particular one)
Post by: Main Street on August 14, 2009, 11:03:22 AM
Quote from: muppet on August 13, 2009, 06:34:01 PM
If the bank guarantee was a huge gamble, is NAMA double or quits?

NAMA is not double or quits , NAMA is at least dectuple or quits.

Much of the talk to justify NAMA is based on the Swedish model of the early 1990's.
There is actually very little comparison on scales of crisis.

In Sweden, about 4% of the GDP was staked on buying up bad Bank property loans
In Ireland the plan is for  >50% of the GDP
Before the Swedish NAMA sucked up the bad loans, the bad loans were already written down by the Banks.
Sweden had a bubble in a bicycle tyre,  Ireland has a Hindenburg.




Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: tyronefan on August 14, 2009, 11:10:52 AM
what are the options

If we dont go with Nama what other routes are open to us.

I hear a lot of discussion on the media against Nama but very few ideas what to do instead. If this is such a bad idea with so many risks surely some of these finanical gurus must have a better idea
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on August 14, 2009, 11:32:25 AM
Nationalise the banks is one option - take back all the land and properties these boyos have all around the place and start again.
All the financial gurus have a vested interest in keeping the party going!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: tyronefan on August 14, 2009, 11:37:27 AM
but do we not still own the land if we nationalise the banks, it doesn't really solve the problem only leaves the state running the banks and judging by how they run everything else I don't know if thats the best way forward
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on August 14, 2009, 11:41:34 AM
Quotejudging by how they run everything else I don't know if thats the best way forward

Anf the lads in charge of them have done such a good job themselves!!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: tyronefan on August 14, 2009, 11:43:39 AM
 :D  aye you have a point there declan
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: ludermor on August 14, 2009, 11:44:35 AM
Quote from: the Deel Rover on August 14, 2009, 10:00:19 AM
Quote from: ludermor on August 14, 2009, 09:44:48 AM
i think they said the top 30 are responsible for the most but said up to 1000 developers owe over 10million which is a staggering figure.
Did you see the union lad ( joe o connor?) and the economist from trinity talking about the prosoped social welfare cuts? The union lad went on the normal rant about the banks buyout and nama but when the economist tried to explain that we didnt physically have the money for nama he just didnt understand, he thought there was a big bag of money we could be using to pay out on social welfare.

Aren't all these cutbacks just a drop in the ocean it said last night that the government is borrowing €400 million per week surely this can't go on. it looks to me like we are well and truly fcuked .
It is bleak but there has to be an overhaul of th ewelfare system, i know several english familys at home who have never ( and i mean never) worked a day in their life, they moved to ireland and are getting dole and all the add ons ( childerns allowance, medical card etc)  and a 4 bedroom house, one of them giving out about living on 500 euro a week ( they have 2 kids) even though they are getting a house for nothing!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: FermGael on August 14, 2009, 11:49:43 AM
Reports on the news this morning that a Canadian bank was interested in AIB subject to Nama.

I suppose if all the bad building loans were gone, they would still be a good business and there would be very little risk for them.
Could make a good profit meanwhile the Irish taxpayer will be paying the bill for generations.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Main Street on August 14, 2009, 12:07:19 PM
Irish people will be just paying the interest for years.

A new era of economic colonialism is dawning, funded by the taxpayer. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on August 14, 2009, 02:22:15 PM
Quote from: tyronefan on August 14, 2009, 11:37:27 AM
but do we not still own the land if we nationalise the banks, it doesn't really solve the problem only leaves the state running the banks and judging by how they run everything else I don't know if thats the best way forward
we could buy the banks for approx 10bn, it'd be cheaper than buying their loanbooks for 90bn and there might even be an upside (for the taxpayer as opposed to investors).
It's been ruled out because lenno and the genuises at the dept of finance (the same people who didn't understand that the pension levy would be tax deductible) have decided that nationalisation is like something from Citizen Smith and that we're not in the 70's anymore.  It's also a sleight of hand in that if we nationalise the banks then our national debt increases, the NAMA route makes it look like the banks are taking on the extra debt as they take the govt's bonds to the ecb and borrow against them.

All in all, NAMA is a disgrace, the fact that outside investors are looking to take a part of AIB conditional on the loanbook being sold off shows just how bad a deal the taxpayer is getting here.  Some lad from Bloxham was on talking there, he reckoned that the fact that outsiders were interested in investing showed just how brilliant an idea NAMA was and that outside confidence was being restored by lenno's brilliant plan.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Billys Boots on August 14, 2009, 02:28:19 PM
QuoteSome lad from Bloxham was on talking there

If RTÉ can get folks to come on and say that some financial plan is a brilliant idea, then it's a fairly safe bet that the complete opposite is the case. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: tyronefan on August 14, 2009, 02:33:41 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on August 14, 2009, 02:22:15 PM
Quote from: tyronefan on August 14, 2009, 11:37:27 AM
but do we not still own the land if we nationalise the banks, it doesn't really solve the problem only leaves the state running the banks and judging by how they run everything else I don't know if thats the best way forward
we could buy the banks for approx 10bn, it'd be cheaper than buying their loanbooks for 90bn and there might even be an upside (for the taxpayer as opposed to investors).
It's been ruled out because lenno and the genuises at the dept of finance (the same people who didn't understand that the pension levy would be tax deductible) have decided that nationalisation is like something from Citizen Smith and that we're not in the 70's anymore.  It's also a sleight of hand in that if we nationalise the banks then our national debt increases, the NAMA route makes it look like the banks are taking on the extra debt as they take the govt's bonds to the ecb and borrow against them.

All in all, NAMA is a disgrace, the fact that outside investors are looking to take a part of AIB conditional on the loanbook being sold off shows just how bad a deal the taxpayer is getting here.  Some lad from Bloxham was on talking there, he reckoned that the fact that outsiders were interested in investing showed just how brilliant an idea NAMA was and that outside confidence was being restored by lenno's brilliant plan.

I am not sure if I understand this correctly, but if we as tax payers take over the banks do we not assume their debts also which includes the bad loans
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on August 14, 2009, 02:50:55 PM
Quote from: tyronefan on August 14, 2009, 02:33:41 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on August 14, 2009, 02:22:15 PM
Quote from: tyronefan on August 14, 2009, 11:37:27 AM
but do we not still own the land if we nationalise the banks, it doesn't really solve the problem only leaves the state running the banks and judging by how they run everything else I don't know if thats the best way forward
we could buy the banks for approx 10bn, it'd be cheaper than buying their loanbooks for 90bn and there might even be an upside (for the taxpayer as opposed to investors).
It's been ruled out because lenno and the genuises at the dept of finance (the same people who didn't understand that the pension levy would be tax deductible) have decided that nationalisation is like something from Citizen Smith and that we're not in the 70's anymore.  It's also a sleight of hand in that if we nationalise the banks then our national debt increases, the NAMA route makes it look like the banks are taking on the extra debt as they take the govt's bonds to the ecb and borrow against them.

All in all, NAMA is a disgrace, the fact that outside investors are looking to take a part of AIB conditional on the loanbook being sold off shows just how bad a deal the taxpayer is getting here.  Some lad from Bloxham was on talking there, he reckoned that the fact that outsiders were interested in investing showed just how brilliant an idea NAMA was and that outside confidence was being restored by lenno's brilliant plan.

I am not sure if I understand this correctly, but if we as tax payers take over the banks do we not assume their debts also which includes the bad loans
yes, but nama means that we only assume their bad loans
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: tyronefan on August 14, 2009, 03:36:36 PM
we are taking their bad loans at a discount (rate yet to be decided)   if we nationalise them we get their bad debts at full price.

it seems we will not know how good or bad it will be until we see the rate at which the government  buy the bad loans.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on August 14, 2009, 03:53:17 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on August 14, 2009, 02:22:15 PM
Quote from: tyronefan on August 14, 2009, 11:37:27 AM
but do we not still own the land if we nationalise the banks, it doesn't really solve the problem only leaves the state running the banks and judging by how they run everything else I don't know if thats the best way forward
we could buy the banks for approx 10bn, it'd be cheaper than buying their loanbooks for 90bn and there might even be an upside (for the taxpayer as opposed to investors).
It's been ruled out because lenno and the genuises at the dept of finance (the same people who didn't understand that the pension levy would be tax deductible) have decided that nationalisation is like something from Citizen Smith and that we're not in the 70's anymore.  It's also a sleight of hand in that if we nationalise the banks then our national debt increases, the NAMA route makes it look like the banks are taking on the extra debt as they take the govt's bonds to the ecb and borrow against them.

All in all, NAMA is a disgrace, the fact that outside investors are looking to take a part of AIB conditional on the loanbook being sold off shows just how bad a deal the taxpayer is getting here.  Some lad from Bloxham was on talking there, he reckoned that the fact that outsiders were interested in investing showed just how brilliant an idea NAMA was and that outside confidence was being restored by lenno's brilliant plan.

Only just read this here now.

To my mind the AIB is like a rotten apple. The Government is going to cut out all the rotten bits and give it to the taxpayer while a foreign bank buys what's left. This is supposed to be good for us?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Rossfan on August 14, 2009, 08:50:28 PM
Instead of giving the Bankers/Builders €60bn the economy would do far better if the Govt divided the €60bn evenly among all the people of the 26 Counties. That would work out about €15k each I think.
People would go out spending it or paying off loans ,or saving it etc so employment would rise left right and centre, the banks would get loads of money deposited in them, lots of loans would be cleared etc and the whole economy would be stimulated.
Of course the Builders would all be liquidated  ;D ;D ;D ;D
which would make everyone happy except the FcukinFiannaFailures.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Zapatista on August 15, 2009, 08:35:42 AM
Quote from: Rossfan on August 14, 2009, 08:50:28 PM
Instead of giving the Bankers/Builders €60bn the economy would do far better if the Govt divided the €60bn evenly among all the people of the 26 Counties. That would work out about €15k each I think.
People would go out spending it or paying off loans ,or saving it etc so employment would rise left right and centre, the banks would get loads of money deposited in them, lots of loans would be cleared etc and the whole economy would be stimulated.
Of course the Builders would all be liquidated  ;D ;D ;D ;D
which would make everyone happy except the FcukinFiannaFailures.

The problem there is that most people are more than 15K in debt. Also, they don't have 60bn.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on August 15, 2009, 01:30:48 PM
Quote from: tyronefan on August 14, 2009, 03:36:36 PM
we are taking their bad loans at a discount (rate yet to be decided)   if we nationalise them we get their bad debts at full price.

it seems we will not know how good or bad it will be until we see the rate at which the government  buy the bad loans.


if we nationalise we get all their assets at what the market considers their fair price, in the eyes of the market the loans were already discounted, that's why since NAMA was announced, BOI shares have risen from 12c to 200c, as the market considers the banks wil get a much better deal with this new plan.

I see the courts were at all sorts of shenanigans last night in order to give the Carroll group more breathing space (and get them closer to NAMA).  They've apparently presented a business plan now (with info they had before, but decided not to bother furnishing), I hope Kelly shows the new plan the same disdain he did the last.  This plan seems to be as much bollocks as the last one:
Quote"He said the companies had submitted "a considerably enhanced body of evidence" including a new independent accountant's report drafted by KPMG that was "more extensive" than a previous one and a report from the chief economist of Goodbody Stockbrokers, which shows a turnaround in the world economy in 2010 and in Ireland in 2011, and that this would back up the group's proposed survival plan"
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Ash Smoker on August 15, 2009, 07:14:46 PM
It looks like a real stroke is being pulled now!
Fianna Fail, the great friend of the banker and developer will do everything it can to keep Carroll from going under.
The mug taxpayer will carry the can to prop up these leeches.

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/carroll-in-hospital-as-lawyers-beg-for-time-1860946.html (http://www.independent.ie/national-news/carroll-in-hospital-as-lawyers-beg-for-time-1860946.html)

Carroll in hospital as lawyers beg for time

By Dearbhail McDonald Legal Editor

Saturday August 15 2009

TROUBLED developer Liam Carroll was in hospital last night and unable to attend a court where his lawyers made a dramatic 11th-hour bid to save his construction empire from collapse.

In an emergency sitting of the High Court last night, counsel for Mr Carroll revealed he is in hospital and unable to give instructions.

But lawyers acting on his behalf sought to present new evidence. This had not been heard by the Supreme Court, which refused to appoint an examiner to six of his companies last Tuesday.

As Mr Carroll battled against a midnight deadline to re-apply to have an examiner appointed, senior counsel Michael Cush begged Judge Eamon de Valera to apply his discretion and allow him to present the new examiner petition early next week.

There will now be a hearing on Thursday to establish whether the case should be allowed to proceed.

The case was brought to the High Court amid concerns that provisional liquidator Declan Taite could exercise his power to take over the assets of Mr Carroll's two main holding companies -- Vantive and Morston -- and take control of all of its subsidiaries.

Mr Cush said Mr Carroll had addressed the three main criticisms levelled at him by the Supreme Court.

Dramatic new evidence presented to the High Court last night included:

    * A new independent accountants' report compiled by KPMG.
    * New letters from his banks indicating support to provide ongoing finance for his projects.
    * New, updated valuations including statements from estate agents CBRE and Hooke and McDonald.
    * A report on the predicted upturn in the global economy in 2010 and the Irish economy in 2011 from the chief economist at Goodbody Stockbrokers.

Mr Cush said the new material was "a considerably enhanced body of evidence" and warned that if the examinership petition was not heard "we are facing the inevitable collapse of the (Zoe) group".

He accepted that some of the Supreme Court's criticisms were valid, but said some of the new material was not available to Mr Carroll when he first sought the court's protection. He insisted Mr Carroll "went looking for it".

However, ACC Bank, who are attempting to recover around €136m in loans owed to it by Mr Carroll, described his last ditch petition as "vexatious". The Dutch-owned bank said the move was an abuse of process as the matter had already been before both the High Court and the Supreme Court.

Solicitor Jane Marshall even accused Mr Carroll of using the Supreme Court ruling as "an advice on proofs" to create what was, in effect, a new action.

Agitating

Lawyers acting for Mr Taite, who is also a receiver for four of Mr Carroll's companies, said he was not agitating any course of action. His powers could be varied, but only if the court was satisfied there was a reasonable prospect that Mr Carroll's six companies would survive.

The court also heard that a seventh company controlled by Mr Carroll is seeking court protection.

It also emerged last night that the State-owned Anglo Irish Bank is willing to provide €8m to Mr Carroll if an examiner is appointed to help him complete a development in Dublin's Docklands.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Lone Shark on August 17, 2009, 11:44:06 AM
From what I can see the timeline on NAMA is fairly straightforward.

(1) Get the thing up and running before too much muck hits the fan with regard to Liam Carroll etc, so as to legitimately buy "packages" of loans for perhaps 75c in the euro. In theory all loans over a certain size have to be bought out, so that the state gets the good with the bad. In practice the banks get enough time to decide for themselves which loans they want to keep, so as to split it up from a 20m loan into four 5m loans.

(2) NAMA then takes about six months to put all the assets together, during which time no properties can be sold yet, and no repayments are sought because everything "takes time".

(3) The banks take the capital, shore up their liquidity ratios, and promptly resume their closed wallet policy since there is still a recession on after all. Government pressure will mean that there will still be some mortgages issued, since small mortgage holders are easy chase, but finance to business will remain impossible to get.

(4) Over time it will be revealed that several developers with, on average, 100m of debt, have no intention of paying anything off, have nothing only half finished estates in Cavan and Longford to show for it, and anything of value that they own has been transferred to their wives. The loans are worth approximately 10c in the euro at most.

(5) In the meantime Anglo goes bust anyway, while foreign investors come in and cherry pick the carcasses of AIB, BOI and PTSB. Anglo leaves the state on the hook for another 100bn in bondholder funds because the guarantee is still in place. Anyone thinking that they've cleaned up their act, have a look at the Bovale story coming out today.

(6) The Irish public begins to realise that we were sold the biggest con job in the history of the free world. People start to get angry. The government claims that "they couldn't have known" that things would be as bad as this, and that "the banks deceived us". In the meantime all the bankers have retired with their golden parachutes.

(7) Now here's the real sting in the tail - NAMA has the right to sell any assets they own with no VAT, no stamp, or anything, should the government so decree. They will "liquidate" a wide variety of assets as such, probably within a year of an election. "Commercial sensitivity" will preclude prices being issued, but essentially that half finished estate in Gowna or Mullinalaghta will be sold on to some insider, who'll pick it up for a song - since NAMA is going to be bust anyway. Basically this will be the mechanism for FF and their cronies to have one last dip in the pot before they are voted out.

(8) After one term of FF being in opposition, the country will be beginning to recover, but because it's not fast enough, and becuase some harsh medicine will be felt, the new goverment will be voted out with people claiming that "they're all the same" and falling, yet again, for cheap promises and nods and winks. People finally give up on the idea of fair governance and vote with the guy who promises to sell little Johnny and Mary a cheap house, glossing over the fact that he himself picked it up in the firesale for virtually nothing.


I think I've covered most of it there. Anybody who would like to add some details that I may have missed, feel free.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Ash Smoker on August 17, 2009, 12:13:46 PM
Quote from: Lone Shark on August 17, 2009, 11:44:06 AM
From what I can see the timeline on NAMA is fairly straightforward.

(1) Get the thing up and running before too much muck hits the fan with regard to Liam Carroll etc, so as to legitimately buy "packages" of loans for perhaps 75c in the euro. In theory all loans over a certain size have to be bought out, so that the state gets the good with the bad. In practice the banks get enough time to decide for themselves which loans they want to keep, so as to split it up from a 20m loan into four 5m loans.

(2) NAMA then takes about six months to put all the assets together, during which time no properties can be sold yet, and no repayments are sought because everything "takes time".

(3) The banks take the capital, shore up their liquidity ratios, and promptly resume their closed wallet policy since there is still a recession on after all. Government pressure will mean that there will still be some mortgages issued, since small mortgage holders are easy chase, but finance to business will remain impossible to get.

(4) Over time it will be revealed that several developers with, on average, 100m of debt, have no intention of paying anything off, have nothing only half finished estates in Cavan and Longford to show for it, and anything of value that they own has been transferred to their wives. The loans are worth approximately 10c in the euro at most.

(5) In the meantime Anglo goes bust anyway, while foreign investors come in and cherry pick the carcasses of AIB, BOI and PTSB. Anglo leaves the state on the hook for another 100bn in bondholder funds because the guarantee is still in place. Anyone thinking that they've cleaned up their act, have a look at the Bovale story coming out today.

(6) The Irish public begins to realise that we were sold the biggest con job in the history of the free world. People start to get angry. The government claims that "they couldn't have known" that things would be as bad as this, and that "the banks deceived us". In the meantime all the bankers have retired with their golden parachutes.

(7) Now here's the real sting in the tail - NAMA has the right to sell any assets they own with no VAT, no stamp, or anything, should the government so decree. They will "liquidate" a wide variety of assets as such, probably within a year of an election. "Commercial sensitivity" will preclude prices being issued, but essentially that half finished estate in Gowna or Mullinalaghta will be sold on to some insider, who'll pick it up for a song - since NAMA is going to be bust anyway. Basically this will be the mechanism for FF and their cronies to have one last dip in the pot before they are voted out.

(8) After one term of FF being in opposition, the country will be beginning to recover, but because it's not fast enough, and becuase some harsh medicine will be felt, the new goverment will be voted out with people claiming that "they're all the same" and falling, yet again, for cheap promises and nods and winks. People finally give up on the idea of fair governance and vote with the guy who promises to sell little Johnny and Mary a cheap house, glossing over the fact that he himself picked it up in the firesale for virtually nothing.


I think I've covered most of it there. Anybody who would like to add some details that I may have missed, feel free.
You should sent that to the letter section of the papers.
The public are slowly waking up to Nama now.
People are realising that the country was run for the benefit of a cosy inner circle for the last decade and that any measures taken will look after their interests first and foremost.

We are being run like a South American banana republic.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: bcarrier on August 17, 2009, 12:14:30 PM
Whether NAMA is a rip off or clever off government balance sheet manipulation depends almost entirely on the valuation methodolgy adopted and assumptions used in valuing initial loans ( and underlying property ) taken over. There is plenty of scope for manipulation especially by changing tax variables  and the developers margin in arriving at a residual property value and consequential loan impairment.

I can almost hear the masses saying " they can forget about developers margin anyway " ....shooting themselves in the foot in the process.



Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Billys Boots on August 17, 2009, 01:19:12 PM
QuoteThe public are slowly waking up to Nama now.
People are realising that the country was run for the benefit of a cosy inner circle for the last decade and that any measures taken will look after their interests first and foremost.

Last decade my arse, it's been exactly like that since the early 70s.  This information was clear at the time of the last general election, and the one before, and we voted them back in.  It's about time the voters of Ireland took responsibility for their own actions.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on August 17, 2009, 01:37:20 PM
Quote(4) Over time it will be revealed that several developers with, on average, 100m of debt, have no intention of paying anything off, have nothing only half finished estates in Cavan and Longford to show for it, and anything of value that they own has been transferred to their wives. The loans are worth approximately 10c in the euro at most.

(5) In the meantime Anglo goes bust anyway, while foreign investors come in and cherry pick the carcasses of AIB, BOI and PTSB. Anglo leaves the state on the hook for another 100bn in bondholder funds because the guarantee is still in place. Anyone thinking that they've cleaned up their act, have a look at the Bovale story coming out today.

(6) The Irish public begins to realise that we were sold the biggest con job in the history of the free world. People start to get angry. The government claims that "they couldn't have known" that things would be as bad as this, and that "the banks deceived us". In the meantime all the bankers have retired with their golden parachutes.

(7) Now here's the real sting in the tail - NAMA has the right to sell any assets they own with no VAT, no stamp, or anything, should the government so decree. They will "liquidate" a wide variety of assets as such, probably within a year of an election. "Commercial sensitivity" will preclude prices being issued, but essentially that half finished estate in Gowna or Mullinalaghta will be sold on to some insider, who'll pick it up for a song - since NAMA is going to be bust anyway. Basically this will be the mechanism for FF and their cronies to have one last dip in the pot before they are voted out.

(Cool After one term of FF being in opposition, the country will be beginning to recover, but because it's not fast enough, and becuase some harsh medicine will be felt, the new goverment will be voted out with people claiming that "they're all the same" and falling, yet again, for cheap promises and nods and winks. People finally give up on the idea of fair governance and vote with the guy who promises to sell little Johnny and Mary a cheap house, glossing over the fact that he himself picked it up in the firesale for virtually nothing.

Great post LS. The latest stuff on Bovale and Anglo backing them is just unreal - As BB said it's about time the voters of Ireland took some responsibility for their actions in continually voting in that shower. The argument re the link between "recreational" drug use and gangland killings comes to my mind. Anyone who has voted for FF since late 60s early 70's is culpable!

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on August 18, 2009, 12:31:40 PM
Another bank makes a run for it.

http://www.rte.ie/business/2009/0818/greencore.html (http://www.rte.ie/business/2009/0818/greencore.html)

The Anglo/Bovale story should alert the citizens as to what exactly the bank guarantee and NAMA are all about.

Taxpayers money used to protect a corrupt bank * who are using that taxpayers collateral to protect known corrupt property ** developers.

* a bank loaning money to property developers exclusively for the purpose of purchasing shares in the same bank is illegal and if this was the States there would be many Anglo officials in jail.....we haven't even had a court case
** http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2009/0818/1224252768992.html (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2009/0818/1224252768992.html)


As an aside what will be the tipping point for the citizens?

NAMA
General Election as sleveen FFers just as Rae baulk over something like a roof on his town hall
December budget
Some 'unforeseen' but entirely yet predictable scandal
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on August 18, 2009, 01:45:51 PM
Quote
As an aside what will be the tipping point for the citizens?

Unfortunately we have none muppet. Will continue to moan and give out yet will do nothing about it. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: bcarrier on August 18, 2009, 02:49:27 PM
I am not sure what to make of the Anglo/Bovale story .

It looks like Bovale already have the most of the money already and are negotiating an extension of repayment . Anglo could presumably appoint a liquidator to sell the assets and reclaim what it can  but has made a commercial judgement that it has a better chance of recovering its debt by making additional advances to Bovale to complete unfinished development. There was some talk of an hotel being completed and leased to an operator on propertypin.com . The worst thing banks can get left with is uncompleted development - undeveloped land and completed units can be readily sold but half finished work in progress will be a nightmare to handle. Design and building warranties can be invalidated and value destroyed completely.

Without knowing the details of underlying transaction it is impossible to tell whether anglo are making the correct decision or not though I can understand why you may not want to give them the benefit of the doubt.

As an aside since Bovale are trading insolvently ....the balance sheet has negative net worth are Directors personally liable for any losses arising to creditors ?

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on August 18, 2009, 06:28:16 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on August 18, 2009, 02:49:27 PM
I am not sure what to make of the Anglo/Bovale story .

It looks like Bovale already have the most of the money already and are negotiating an extension of repayment . Anglo could presumably appoint a liquidator to sell the assets and reclaim what it can  but has made a commercial judgement that it has a better chance of recovering its debt by making additional advances to Bovale to complete unfinished development. There was some talk of an hotel being completed and leased to an operator on propertypin.com . The worst thing banks can get left with is uncompleted development - undeveloped land and completed units can be readily sold but half finished work in progress will be a nightmare to handle. Design and building warranties can be invalidated and value destroyed completely.

Without knowing the details of underlying transaction it is impossible to tell whether anglo are making the correct decision or not though I can understand why you may not want to give them the benefit of the doubt.

As an aside since Bovale are trading insolvently ....the balance sheet has negative net worth are Directors personally liable for any losses arising to creditors ?
just what we need another hotel!!

Every director and shadow director runs the risk of being held personally liable nowadays thanks to the reckless trading legislation (which effectively makes 'limited' worthless), it's difficult enough to prove though, but, the fact that Bovale has in the past paid out rather large sums in wages and pensions to the owners might make it a little easier.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Bord na Mona man on August 18, 2009, 09:19:24 PM
Quote from: Lone Shark on August 17, 2009, 11:44:06 AM
From what I can see the timeline on NAMA is fairly straightforward.

(1) Get the thing up and running before too much muck hits the fan with regard to Liam Carroll etc, so as to legitimately buy "packages" of loans for perhaps 75c in the euro. In theory all loans over a certain size have to be bought out, so that the state gets the good with the bad. In practice the banks get enough time to decide for themselves which loans they want to keep, so as to split it up from a 20m loan into four 5m loans.

(2) NAMA then takes about six months to put all the assets together, during which time no properties can be sold yet, and no repayments are sought because everything "takes time".

(3) The banks take the capital, shore up their liquidity ratios, and promptly resume their closed wallet policy since there is still a recession on after all. Government pressure will mean that there will still be some mortgages issued, since small mortgage holders are easy chase, but finance to business will remain impossible to get.

(4) Over time it will be revealed that several developers with, on average, 100m of debt, have no intention of paying anything off, have nothing only half finished estates in Cavan and Longford to show for it, and anything of value that they own has been transferred to their wives. The loans are worth approximately 10c in the euro at most.

(5) In the meantime Anglo goes bust anyway, while foreign investors come in and cherry pick the carcasses of AIB, BOI and PTSB. Anglo leaves the state on the hook for another 100bn in bondholder funds because the guarantee is still in place. Anyone thinking that they've cleaned up their act, have a look at the Bovale story coming out today.

(6) The Irish public begins to realise that we were sold the biggest con job in the history of the free world. People start to get angry. The government claims that "they couldn't have known" that things would be as bad as this, and that "the banks deceived us". In the meantime all the bankers have retired with their golden parachutes.

(7) Now here's the real sting in the tail - NAMA has the right to sell any assets they own with no VAT, no stamp, or anything, should the government so decree. They will "liquidate" a wide variety of assets as such, probably within a year of an election. "Commercial sensitivity" will preclude prices being issued, but essentially that half finished estate in Gowna or Mullinalaghta will be sold on to some insider, who'll pick it up for a song - since NAMA is going to be bust anyway. Basically this will be the mechanism for FF and their cronies to have one last dip in the pot before they are voted out.

(8) After one term of FF being in opposition, the country will be beginning to recover, but because it's not fast enough, and becuase some harsh medicine will be felt, the new goverment will be voted out with people claiming that "they're all the same" and falling, yet again, for cheap promises and nods and winks. People finally give up on the idea of fair governance and vote with the guy who promises to sell little Johnny and Mary a cheap house, glossing over the fact that he himself picked it up in the firesale for virtually nothing.


I think I've covered most of it there. Anybody who would like to add some details that I may have missed, feel free.
If it goes like that, at some stage I'd expect the government to all but ban the issuing of planning permission in an effort to force people to buy the crappy cardboard houses that they've landed themselves with.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Billys Boots on August 25, 2009, 01:25:39 PM
Dogbert moves to Ireland

(http://www.dilbert.com/dyn/str_strip/000000000/00000000/0000000/000000/60000/4000/700/64749/64749.strip.gif)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: magpie seanie on August 25, 2009, 04:12:58 PM
Lone Sharks scenario is chillingly realistic.

Am I a hopeless optimist or am I correct in sensing that there is a bit of a public swell of opposition to this ridiculous NAMA plan? Its a little ironic that we're all relying on the Green Party to stand up and tell the Emporer that he is wearing no clothes. I hope they don't fail us but worry that their leaderships new found power will urge them to force it through their membership. I believe anything is better than NAMA and that includes doing nothing. This govt, who in a gross error of judgement I voted for, have to be got out of office yesterday. It is not possible for anyone to do any worse, I'm sure of that now.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on August 25, 2009, 04:50:56 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on August 25, 2009, 04:12:58 PM
Lone Sharks scenario is chillingly realistic.

Am I a hopeless optimist or am I correct in sensing that there is a bit of a public swell of opposition to this ridiculous NAMA plan? Its a little ironic that we're all relying on the Green Party to stand up and tell the Emporer that he is wearing no clothes. I hope they don't fail us but worry that their leaderships new found power will urge them to force it through their membership. I believe anything is better than NAMA and that includes doing nothing. This govt, who in a gross error of judgement I voted for, have to be got out of office yesterday. It is not possible for anyone to do any worse, I'm sure of that now.

The editorial line in the Indo is that it would be unpatriotic for the Greens to 'play politics' with NAMA. FF strategists use the Indo only when they really need it such as election time and Lisbon etc. They must be really concerned that the Greens will walk.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: magpie seanie on August 25, 2009, 04:55:08 PM
Did I not see some FF back bencher last night commit political suicide question the whole NAMA thing and say he'd need more assurances to support it?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on August 25, 2009, 05:38:52 PM
This is my problem (admittedly with very limited knowledge of banks or economics) with NAMA.

Either you have a free market economy or you don't.

In a free market regulation and Government intervention is minimal. The whole economy is based on supply and demand. For the workers and investors it is survival of the fittest. Good well run businesses can succeed and rise to the top while poor badly run businesses fail. Successful people do very well while most who are willing and able to work can live comfortably. The system encourages and rewards risk takers unless the risk fails in which case the system makes them start again. Extreme versions of this type of economy believe that all services including health are most efficiently provided by a free market.

A quick look at the net tells me there a lots of types of not free market economies, some of which I have never heard of and all of which I don't understand. However I do know that typically there would be significant Government intervention. These economies seem to be less efficient and workers pay higher taxes. These economies are anything but survival of the fittest for workers and don't encourage risk takers. However on the plus side these Governments provide far better public health care for example and workers tend to have greater job security than in free markets.

To my mind NAMA represents the worst of both worlds for us. The banks insisted on and got minimal regulation. They took free market risks and failed spectacularly. They, along with the Developers are the consummate Irish free marketeers. But the free market would have them fall on their swords.

Now they want unprecedented levels of Government intervention to subsidise their failures. Having benefited hugely from their successes in a free market they want the taxpayer to be liable for their failures. It is galling to see such champions of the free market in the boom times become cheerleaders for intervention in the crash. The likes of Parlon, the Baileys, Carroll, Fitzpatrick, Harney etc have no shame.

But what's worse is that NAMA seems to me to give the free market failures that are the Irish banks, the ability to give the debt to the state and then return to the free market as if nothing has happened. Witness the financial commentators cheering the Canadian bank's interest in AIB, AIB after NAMA of course and telling us that it means confidence is being restored.

Do they think we are completely stupid?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: magpie seanie on August 25, 2009, 06:30:43 PM
I agree 100%.

I don't know whether they think we are stupid or not but they are banking (sorry for the horrible pun) on there being enough stupid and/or docile people out there to save their asses. Frankly, I think on this and this alone they've read things right. Most people are either thick, apathetic or both.

There has to be somethnig we can do to take our country back, surely?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Lone Shark on August 25, 2009, 06:47:53 PM
Quote from: muppet on August 25, 2009, 05:38:52 PM
Do they think we are completely stupid?

I don't think they do - however they think, indeed they know, that ultimately, short of re-enacting the French revolution, we are powerless. The remarkable part is that this is the case the whole way up along the line, which is an indictment of our lack of genuine democracy. A large majority of our TD's know that without that beloved FF logo beside their names, their electibility is way down. This should not be the case, since in an ideal world the people of Tipp North should be delighted to see Mattie McGrath dabbling with the idea of some independent thinking. (I say dabbling, he has yet to prove that he's actually going to engage his brain and contemplate the knock on effects of what we're about to do). Of course in practice, the people of Tipp North want him to be a good lackey so that when they call up their personal concierge, which is of course how most Irish people see their TD, they'll know that he'll be well placed to push them through whatever loophole they wish to go.

Our ministers dare not question Biffo and Brian, our TD's dare not upset the ministers since that's where they want to be themselves some day, our councillors are too busy milking the expenses pot since the rezoning bonanza has finally drawn to a close, and our citizens shrug their shoulders and simply groan that this is the way it has always been, and will always be.

We are the equivalent of subservient slaves, 90% of us voting the way we're mentally programmed or on the back of some stupid slogan, or perhaps for whichever guy will be best placed to help us bend the rules, cheat the system, land a stroke, or any of the other things that make this messed up country function.

Muppet has pointed out perfectly how the actions of our political leaders follow no ideology, they follow no clear plan and indeed they are utterly incorrect in terms of achieving the stated aims. I say the stated aims, because I have no doubt that they will achieve the unstated ones perfectly.

The Green Party will get their carbon tax and fall into line. After all, unlike Labour or indeed the Pd's in their time, the Greens are well aware that they will always oscillate between 3 and 6% in the national polls, with 10% popularity the aim. Stuff like this, which appeals to their core vote but further alienates people who were never going to vote for them anyway, is perfect for them. Dan Boyle will make noises, (though you'll hear nothing from Gormley) but ultimately there is basically no chance that they will knock it on the head.

I've come to the conclusion now that even the Courts can't save us. My gut feeling is that the Government isn't interested in trying to convince us of the merits of NAMA any more, as Seanie said, the nation is becoming aware that we're being sold into penury for generations. The only reason the liquidation of Carroll's companies might have saved us was that it would have been politically difficult to pay 75c in the euro for loans which are revealed to be worth a fifth of that - but politically difficult is only an issue if you have any popularity to lose. This government is down to the hardcore, wouldn't-vote-anyone-but-FF-even-if-their-local-TD-only-called-over-to-defecate-in-their-porch, simply mentally unable to vote anyone but Soldier of Destiny, vote. Robbing them of another 100k per person for their lifetimes is going to make no difference to their voting pattern next time anyway.

Short of actually taking to the streets and having a bloody revolution, actually storming the Dáil and physically removing every government deputy and beating them to a pulp, this thing is going through and the only options open to those left is either get used to poverty, or get the hell out. Badly and all as we're getting raped here, I still don't think we have it in us to go down that road.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: magpie seanie on August 25, 2009, 06:53:34 PM
Quote from: Lone Shark on August 25, 2009, 06:47:53 PM
Quote from: muppet on August 25, 2009, 05:38:52 PM
Do they think we are completely stupid?

I don't think they do - however they think, indeed they know, that ultimately, short of re-enacting the French revolution, we are powerless. The remarkable part is that this is the case the whole way up along the line, which is an indictment of our lack of genuine democracy. A large majority of our TD's know that without that beloved FF logo beside their names, their electibility is way down. This should not be the case, since in an ideal world the people of Tipp North should be delighted to see Mattie McGrath dabbling with the idea of some independent thinking. (I say dabbling, he has yet to prove that he's actually going to engage his brain and contemplate the knock on effects of what we're about to do). Of course in practice, the people of Tipp North want him to be a good lackey so that when they call up their personal concierge, which is of course how most Irish people see their TD, they'll know that he'll be well placed to push them through whatever loophole they wish to go.

Our ministers dare not question Biffo and Brian, our TD's dare not upset the ministers since that's where they want to be themselves some day, our councillors are too busy milking the expenses pot since the rezoning bonanza has finally drawn to a close, and our citizens shrug their shoulders and simply groan that this is the way it has always been, and will always be.

We are the equivalent of subservient slaves, 90% of us voting the way we're mentally programmed or on the back of some stupid slogan, or perhaps for whichever guy will be best placed to help us bend the rules, cheat the system, land a stroke, or any of the other things that make this messed up country function.

Muppet has pointed out perfectly how the actions of our political leaders follow no ideology, they follow no clear plan and indeed they are utterly incorrect in terms of achieving the stated aims. I say the stated aims, because I have no doubt that they will achieve the unstated ones perfectly.

The Green Party will get their carbon tax and fall into line. After all, unlike Labour or indeed the Pd's in their time, the Greens are well aware that they will always oscillate between 3 and 6% in the national polls, with 10% popularity the aim. Stuff like this, which appeals to their core vote but further alienates people who were never going to vote for them anyway, is perfect for them. Dan Boyle will make noises, (though you'll hear nothing from Gormley) but ultimately there is basically no chance that they will knock it on the head.

I've come to the conclusion now that even the Courts can't save us. My gut feeling is that the Government isn't interested in trying to convince us of the merits of NAMA any more, as Seanie said, the nation is becoming aware that we're being sold into penury for generations. The only reason the liquidation of Carroll's companies might have saved us was that it would have been politically difficult to pay 75c in the euro for loans which are revealed to be worth a fifth of that - but politically difficult is only an issue if you have any popularity to lose. This government is down to the hardcore, wouldn't-vote-anyone-but-FF-even-if-their-local-TD-only-called-over-to-defecate-in-their-porch, simply mentally unable to vote anyone but Soldier of Destiny, vote. Robbing them of another 100k per person for their lifetimes is going to make no difference to their voting pattern next time anyway.

Short of actually taking to the streets and having a bloody revolution, actually storming the Dáil and physically removing every government deputy and beating them to a pulp, this thing is going through and the only options open to those left is either get used to poverty, or get the hell out. Badly and all as we're getting raped here, I still don't think we have it in us to go down that road.

Unfortunately not or not enough of us anyway.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on August 26, 2009, 08:03:13 AM
QuoteShort of actually taking to the streets and having a bloody revolution, actually storming the Dáil and physically removing every government deputy and beating them to a pulp, this thing is going through and the only options open to those left is either get used to poverty, or get the hell out. Badly and all as we're getting raped here, I still don't think we have it in us to go down that road.

Agree 100% - I said earlier in the thread if I was a younger man I'd be long gone from this place and that is the advice I'm giving to my kids. I've lived through the 80s recession and saw 20 out of 22 lads I grew up with having to leave this country with a fair few coming back over the years because it's home and nothing has changed in the political landscape. 

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2009/0826/1224253267074.html (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2009/0826/1224253267074.html) - What some of the economists think
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Zapatista on August 26, 2009, 08:08:01 AM
The Irony of it is the more that leave the bigger the debt per person left behind ;D

I think we are somewhere around 25 000 per head and rising.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on August 26, 2009, 10:16:39 AM
The answer to the question 'What if the Bank Guarantee doesn't work?' is Nama.

What is the answer to the question 'What if Nama doesn't work?'

That to me is terrifying.

Not only would it mean that property has continued it's fall in value but that we as a State will have bought a monstrous amount of it at an inflated price. As most of us watch our only assets continue to collapse in value we will have to pay more taxes to pay for the lunacy of our decision makers.

Only the poor with nothing to lose revolt. That is why we haven't done it.............yet.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on August 26, 2009, 11:58:22 AM
Quote from: muppet on August 26, 2009, 10:16:39 AM
The answer to the question 'What if the Bank Guarantee doesn't work?' is Nama.

What is the answer to the question 'What if Nama doesn't work?'

That to me is terrifying.

Not only would it mean that property has continued it's fall in value but that we as a State will have bought a monstrous amount of it at an inflated price. As most of us watch our only assets continue to collapse in value we will have to pay more taxes to pay for the lunacy of our decision makers.

Only the poor with nothing to lose revolt. That is why we haven't done it.............yet.
No, Muppet, the state will be buying these assets at their long term economic value, sure it wouldn't be fair on anyone if they were to pay market value, the very notion of market value is one of those anachronistic terms from way back in the heady days of capitalism.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Main Street on August 26, 2009, 12:57:07 PM
There is surely a credibility issue to what the Government is claiming.
Its the reasoned difference between what is perceived as the long term economic value and real market value, that is the issue.

Anyway some credit to the Gov for at least allowing some time for public debate. I'd say they made sure to buy off the Green Party tds first.
Should be a general election called on this issue alone. Must be the biggest single issue facing the voters since the general election of 1922 when Sinn Féin A beat Sinn Féin B
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Zapatista on August 26, 2009, 01:28:14 PM
Are FF trying to get us out of this by building another property bubble down the line with the assets Nama will have?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: bcarrier on August 26, 2009, 05:24:46 PM
Quote from: Declan on August 26, 2009, 08:03:13 AM
QuoteShort of actually taking to the streets and having a bloody revolution, actually storming the Dáil and physically removing every government deputy and beating them to a pulp, this thing is going through and the only options open to those left is either get used to poverty, or get the hell out. Badly and all as we're getting raped here, I still don't think we have it in us to go down that road.

Agree 100% - I said earlier in the thread if I was a younger man I'd be long gone from this place and that is the advice I'm giving to my kids. I've lived through the 80s recession and saw 20 out of 22 lads I grew up with having to leave this country with a fair few coming back over the years because it's home and nothing has changed in the political landscape. 

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2009/0826/1224253267074.html (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2009/0826/1224253267074.html) - What some of the economists think

Thats an excellent bit of work from the economists.

I think NAMA may not happen - FG and George Lee are starting to get their message out ...

http://www.herald.ie/opinion/why-i-believe-were-being-rushed-bullied--and-intimidated--into-making-a--big-mistake-in-allowing--nama-go-ahead-1868623.html


Kenny ( as expected) made a bags of this last week but what George says here makes sense to me ...the banks are bust and shareholders and bondholders should be first to take the pain. Not future generations of taxpayers.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on August 26, 2009, 06:03:10 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on August 26, 2009, 05:24:46 PM
Quote from: Declan on August 26, 2009, 08:03:13 AM
QuoteShort of actually taking to the streets and having a bloody revolution, actually storming the Dáil and physically removing every government deputy and beating them to a pulp, this thing is going through and the only options open to those left is either get used to poverty, or get the hell out. Badly and all as we're getting raped here, I still don't think we have it in us to go down that road.

Agree 100% - I said earlier in the thread if I was a younger man I'd be long gone from this place and that is the advice I'm giving to my kids. I've lived through the 80s recession and saw 20 out of 22 lads I grew up with having to leave this country with a fair few coming back over the years because it's home and nothing has changed in the political landscape. 

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2009/0826/1224253267074.html (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2009/0826/1224253267074.html) - What some of the economists think

Thats an excellent bit of work from the economists.

I think NAMA may not happen - FG and George Lee are starting to get their message out ...

http://www.herald.ie/opinion/why-i-believe-were-being-rushed-bullied--and-intimidated--into-making-a--big-mistake-in-allowing--nama-go-ahead-1868623.html


Kenny ( as expected) made a bags of this last week but what George says here makes sense to me ...the banks are bust and shareholders and bondholders should be first to take the pain. Not future generations of taxpayers.
did you see alan ahearne's response to it? Some people are easily bought.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on August 27, 2009, 11:00:35 AM
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2009/0827/1224253337021.html (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2009/0827/1224253337021.html)

Impossible for foreign banks to trade here, says Rabobank

SIMON CARSWELL, Finance Correspondent
DUTCH LENDER Rabobank has said it is no longer possible for foreign banks to trade in Ireland after the bank disclosed that it had set aside €1 billion to cover losses on the €5 billion loan book at its Irish subsidiary, ACCBank.

The Dutch bank said that foreign banks in Ireland had "to take care of themselves" as Government support measures were not available to non-Irish banks. The bank named Nama as one support.

"It is not really possible for non-Irish banks to compete on that market any more," Rabobank's chief financial officer Bert Bruggink told reporters yesterday.

Higher bad debts at Rabobank led to a 18 per cent fall in profits to €1.3 billion for the first six months of the year. Mr Bruggink said that Rabobank had decided to reduce its business in Ireland gradually.

"Given the short and medium term economic prospects we have concluded there is little hope that the Irish economy will recover in the near future and that is why we have decided to gradually reduce our operations in Ireland," he said.

He said it was "too early" to say whether it would withdraw fully from Ireland. The Government has left the door open to foreign banks to participate in Nama but they are not expected to partake in the plan. Asked if Rabobank would complain to the EC about the disadvantages facing it in Ireland over State supports, the bank said: "You gave us an idea."

Rabobank set aside €400 million to cover loan losses at ACC in the first six months of the year.

The Utrecht-based unlisted bank said it has provided for losses on a fifth of its Irish loans, the equivalent of a bad debt charge of 2,000 basis points, or 20 per cent.

Rabobank had taken "fairly drastic" action to reduce its presence in Ireland, Mr Bruggink said, and the bank had to examine the quality of Irish loans and take "commensurate provisions".

He refused to rule out writing off more of its Irish loan book.

"You can never say never but I don't think it is likely," he said.

He said that property prices had fallen 50 to 60 per cent in Ireland, halving the collateral held by ACC.

ACC is closing 16 of its 25 branches and cutting 200 staff, almost a third of its workforce. The bank is also aggressively pursuing loans owing by developers through the courts.

ACC's threats to liquidate companies in Liam Carroll's Zoe Group over debts of €136 million has forced the developer to seek court protection from creditors who are owed €1.35 billion, including €1.27 billion to banks.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: magpie seanie on August 27, 2009, 11:21:03 AM
There it is in black and white. This rubbish talk of a 2010 recovery is just that - complete fairytale. Perhaps in the US and Briatain and some of the relatively properly run countries in the world but we here are fcuked.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on August 27, 2009, 11:27:51 AM
Quote from: magpie seanie on August 27, 2009, 11:21:03 AM
There it is in black and white. This rubbish talk of a 2010 recovery is just that - complete fairytale. Perhaps in the US and Briatain and some of the relatively properly run countries in the world but we here are fcuked.

So much for 'NAMA will restore confidence'.

I loved Lenny's reaction yesterday to the 46 economists who voiced serious concerns about NAMA. He said about their article 'It is purely speculative'. Really, and NAMA is a racing certainty!

It is very worrying that his only defense to criticisms of his going 'double or quits' with our economy is to say opponents are guilty of speculating.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: bcarrier on August 27, 2009, 12:42:18 PM
NAMA is a landfill site for the banks. They are getting rid not only of loans secured against property but also derivatives and  "private equity" (sounds like these are loans with no security) . The bank share rally illustrates a fraction of the transfer that is expected to  take place from taxpayer to the bond and shareholders in the banks.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Billys Boots on August 27, 2009, 12:48:54 PM
QuoteNAMA is a landfill site for the banks.

It would be more apposite to equate it with an incinerator, the public can't get burnt at a landfill. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: tyronefan on August 27, 2009, 12:50:37 PM
If NAMA is not the right way to go then can someone not come up with a better idea

It's easy to knock other peoples proposals and just letting the banks go to the wall is not a viable one. We are responsible for the banks deposits now so its looks to me we are between a rock and a hard place. Our only option is to keep the banks afloat.

There is 3 ways of doing this, either nationalize them which means that foreign banks are very wary about lending to them , just give them the money (which we end up doing anyway if NAMA doesn't work) or give them the money through NAMA.
At least through NAMA we get something in return, bad as it may be.

This is my understanding of it.

I don't like any of these options but I have yet to see an idea that looks like it would work any better

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: bcarrier on August 27, 2009, 12:52:44 PM
Better idea here ...

http://www.herald.ie/opinion/why-i-believe-were-being-rushed-bullied--and-intimidated--into-making-a--big-mistake-in-allowing--nama-go-ahead-1868623.html
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: magpie seanie on August 27, 2009, 12:58:41 PM
Can someone explain this to me. Everyone says we can't let the banks go to the wall. I feel a bit silly saying this but - WHY? Surely if the Irish banks fail the foreign banks will take their place? Am I completely off beam? I know it would not be good but obviously I'm missing something when 90 billion of debt is better.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Zapatista on August 27, 2009, 01:10:01 PM
The banks play a part in the everyday running of the country from schools to hospitals to every business we use everyday.

If they went to the wall together we would colapse as a society.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: magpie seanie on August 27, 2009, 01:35:36 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on August 27, 2009, 01:10:01 PM
The banks play a part in the everyday running of the country from schools to hospitals to every business we use everyday.

If they went to the wall together we would colapse as a society.

Yes I've heard that before.

My point is that if the Irish banks failed, surely some foreign banks would fill the void? Surely if the Irish banks failed it wouldn't be enough to bring down the banking system worldwide?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: whiskeysteve on August 27, 2009, 02:11:41 PM
if all the banks collapsed i would be stocking up on tinned food and bottled water :D

Getting a loaf of bread could become problematic...
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Hardy on August 27, 2009, 02:32:27 PM
Seanie's question is sensible and I always wonder too when I'm told something as holy writ. Usually, when I delve a bit deeper I find I'm being flim-flammed. Think of the lie we're being told about the necessity to vote "Yes" to Lisbon in order to stay in the EU.

So why would it be the end of the world if the Irish banks collapsed? If the government has decided it's OK to spend  €60Bn of our money, would it (Or a small fraction of it) not be better spent in providing incentives for working foreign banks to provide retail and investment banking services in Ireland?

That may be nonsense, but can anyone tell me why?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Zapatista on August 27, 2009, 02:40:00 PM
We have gone to far to just stop banking. We rely on the movment of money as much as we rely on the movement of people. It would be like taking every mode of transport (public and private) out of the country and then asking the Germans to step in and start again to provide that transport for the people. It would cause mahem. However, if they were to be replaced gradually we would prob be better off.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: magpie seanie on August 27, 2009, 02:42:12 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on August 27, 2009, 02:40:00 PM
We have gone to far to just stop banking. We rely on the movment of money as much as we rely on the movement of people. It would be like taking every mode of transport out of the country and then asking the Germans to step in and start again to provide that transport for the people. It would cause mahem. However, if they were to be replaced gradually we would prob be better off.

Not being smart Zap but in your instance above my money would be on the Germans doing it better than Irish Rail/Bus Eireann etc after perhaps an inconvenient transition period.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Zapatista on August 27, 2009, 02:45:19 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on August 27, 2009, 02:42:12 PM
Not being smart Zap but in your instance above my money would be on the Germans doing it better than Irish Rail/Bus Eireann etc after perhaps an inconvenient transition period.

Absolutely I'd agree. You would be house bound untill such a time though. Not only would you be house bound but the transport of foods and material would be almost impossible. Do you have a veggy patch and a cow that can keep you going?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on August 27, 2009, 02:47:17 PM
As of today the market cap of our banks is as follows:

   
AIB €2.251 Billion
BOI €2.610 Billion
IL&P €1.101 Billion

That is after today's rally which shows how excited the market is at the taxpayer taking on all the toxic debt.

Despite that the total value of the 3 banks is still less than €6 Billion. €10 Billion would buy them (which is close to what we have had to put in to Anglo so far).

Why could we not nationalise the 3 banks, restructure them and when the stock market recovers (which will be in months as against decades for the property market) sell them off (at a profit to the taxpayer) in IPOs to the market again?

The dreaded fire sale could be avoided as the Government could do a slow recovery of assets from beleaguered developers. The beloved developers would be dealing with Government appointees rather than the now hated market appointees. The critical and potentially disastrous decision of how much NAMA will pay for the loans would be avoided. Finally when Lenihan moans about bans putting up interest rates he would be able to do something about it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on August 27, 2009, 03:04:04 PM
Quote from: tyronefan on August 27, 2009, 12:50:37 PM
If NAMA is not the right way to go then can someone not come up with a better idea

It's easy to knock other peoples proposals and just letting the banks go to the wall is not a viable one. We are responsible for the banks deposits now so its looks to me we are between a rock and a hard place. Our only option is to keep the banks afloat.

There is 3 ways of doing this, either nationalize them which means that foreign banks are very wary about lending to them , just give them the money (which we end up doing anyway if NAMA doesn't work) or give them the money through NAMA.
At least through NAMA we get something in return, bad as it may be.

This is my understanding of it.

I don't like any of these options but I have yet to see an idea that looks like it would work any better
NAMA is not intrinsically a bad idea, the problem with NAMA is the price paid and the fact that it's being based on a long term economic value (how the f**k can a value be put on that?).  The reasons for adopting NAMA as opposed to nationalisation appear (on the face of it anyway) accounting sleight of hand, in that the country won't be borrowing to facilitate the long term funding needs of the banks, but the banks will be meeting their own funding requirements, based on the bonds (issued by the govt) being lodged with the ECB.  This way it appears to outsiders that our national debt is lesser and probably has something to do with staying within the paremeters laid out for membership of the euro.  Of course Lone Shark has alreay pointed out an alternative rationale behind NAMA, which, given this country's past, it'd be impossible to disagree with.
Quote from: magpie seanie on August 27, 2009, 11:21:03 AM
There it is in black and white. This rubbish talk of a 2010 recovery is just that - complete fairytale. Perhaps in the US and Briatain and some of the relatively properly run countries in the world but we here are fcuked.
and even those economies are not going to get off as lightly as they're starting to think, you can't just keep on printing money with no long term consequences, but again, this calls into question the concept of 'long term economic value'.
Quote from: muppet on August 27, 2009, 02:47:17 PM
As of today the market cap of our banks is as follows:

   
AIB €2.251 Billion
BOI €2.610 Billion
IL&P €1.101 Billion

That is after today's rally which shows how excited the market is at the taxpayer taking on all the toxic debt.

Despite that the total value of the 3 banks is still less than €6 Billion. €10 Billion would buy them (which is close to what we have had to put in to Anglo so far).

Why could we not nationalise the 3 banks, restructure them and when the stock market recovers (which will be in months as against decades for the property market) sell them off (at a profit to the taxpayer) in IPOs to the market again?

The dreaded fire sale could be avoided as the Government could do a slow recovery of assets from beleaguered developers. The beloved developers would be dealing with Government appointees rather than the now hated market appointees. The critical and potentially disastrous decision of how much NAMA will pay for the loans would be avoided. Finally when Lenihan moans about bans putting up interest rates he would be able to do something about it.
it would seem to make the most sense, not without drawbacks, but has to be a more transparent solution than NAMA.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: bcarrier on August 27, 2009, 03:24:25 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on August 27, 2009, 12:58:41 PM
Can someone explain this to me. Everyone says we can't let the banks go to the wall. I feel a bit silly saying this but - WHY? Surely if the Irish banks fail the foreign banks will take their place? Am I completely off beam? I know it would not be good but obviously I'm missing something when 90 billion of debt is better.

Its a fair question.

I believe the reason Ireland cant let the banks fail at this point is the bank guarantee put in place last September. Frankly Lenihan made a pigs ear of that . My understanding (which isnt perfect) is that the capital the banks have and lend back out falls into three broad categories :

Shareholders funds
Bondholders funds
Customer deposits

Lenihan should only have guaranteed the deposits but somehow got sucked into also guaranteeing the bonds...or as George Lee in linked article says :

At the height of the crisis last September, the Irish banks came cap in hand to the Government begging for a lifeline because international credit markets had entirely seized up, and they were unable to access the funds they needed to keep operating.

Basically, they were bust. It was a terrifying moment. The minister had to make a decision in a hurry. He guaranteed all deposits in Irish banks and all loans to Irish banks for an initial period of two years.

That was far too generous.

Specifically it guaranteed investors, such as Sean Quinn who had bought bonds issued by Irish banks, that under all circumstances the Irish taxpayer would pay back the full value of those bonds regardless of what happened to the banks. Nobody else in the world did that.


The bonds arent a risk free investment - they get paid a premium to government stock and anyone buying them ( it will mainly be institutions) should be fully aware of the risk. Basically as banks they invested in mismanaged their affairs the bondholders should in ordinary run of events expect losses . With NAMA they and the shareholders ( who should be wiped out at this stage) transfer this liability to the taxpayer.

But there is a way out . The guarantee expires in September next year. George again...

Fine Gael has a proposal which would address many of these shortfalls in double-quick time. Firstly, we want to give the banks the next 13 months, until September 2010, to sort out their debts.

During this period, we expect that they will try to renegotiate the amount that they owe to their bondholders. There would be no change in terms of the guarantee for depositors.


Most interpretations of this I have seen talk about bondholders taking equity for debt. Basically the bonds get converted to shares. There is a bit of a tightrope to be walked here though ... if a bank failure was precipitated before September next year then the state is on the hook for the bonds.


Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: tyronefan on August 27, 2009, 04:36:34 PM
tell me Muppet  if we can buy the banks for 10b  why are we paying 90b

Am I missing something

Surly this just can't be to keep the developers in business
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on August 27, 2009, 05:05:31 PM
Quote from: tyronefan on August 27, 2009, 04:36:34 PM
tell me Muppet  if we can buy the banks for 10b  why are we paying 90b

Am I missing something

Surly this just can't be to keep the developers in business

If we buy the banks now for €10 Billion or whatever we also buy the toxic loans anyway so we get the €90 Billion or so debt regardless. The difference is that we won't have overpaid for it. We can then liquidate the developers at a controlled rate that won't further depress the market. Once we sort out these toxic debts we can then re-float the banks, ideally at a profit.

Right now NAMA means that the profit that will be gained from the banks offloading the toxic debt will go to the market and the taxpayer will pick up the tab. Do it as above and the taxpayer will get any profit.

Having been burned by a property boom as individuals the Government are very likely to force us to buy more property based on a reduction from the peak price. We are seriously likely to get burned again by over paying even though we now know it was a bubble and we not only know bubbles burst we have watched it burst. But they are trying to re-inflate this burst bubble with our money.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: tyronefan on August 27, 2009, 05:14:20 PM
But are we not going to give the banks a reduced rate for the property (as yet unknown)  looking like to be in the region of 60b, seemly if we pay much less we will have to give the banks the money another way anyway.

If we buy or nationalize or buy the banks we get the debts at the full rate but also have the same problem, ie still cant sell them for years.


Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Hardy on August 27, 2009, 05:25:19 PM
Surely the deposit and bond guarantees don't amount to anything near €60Bn. Even if they do, can I ask a simpler question? Is there not a way to make sure we have a usable banking system without spending €60Bn to €90Bn?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on August 27, 2009, 05:44:21 PM
Quote from: Hardy on August 27, 2009, 05:25:19 PM
Surely the deposit and bond guarantees don't amount to anything near €60Bn. Even if they do, can I ask a simpler question? Is there not a way to make sure we have a usable banking system without spending €60Bn to €90Bn?

We have already guaranteed the banks so we are liable already.

Nationalisation would guarantee any benefits to the institutions would be return to the taxpayer, which will not happen with NAMA.

BTW anyone see the article which said the night the guarantee was drawn up, Lenihan and the Attorney General represented the Government as they met delegations from the various banks? Who represented AIB? Why their Chairman former Attorney General Dermot Gleeson.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Hardy on August 27, 2009, 06:02:39 PM
Quote from: muppet on August 27, 2009, 05:44:21 PM
Quote from: Hardy on August 27, 2009, 05:25:19 PM
Surely the deposit and bond guarantees don't amount to anything near €60Bn. Even if they do, can I ask a simpler question? Is there not a way to make sure we have a usable banking system without spending €60Bn to €90Bn?

We have already guaranteed the banks so we are liable already.

Nationalisation would guarantee any benefits to the institutions would be return to the taxpayer, which will not happen with NAMA.

BTW anyone see the article which said the night the guarantee was drawn up, Lenihan and the Attorney General represented the Government as they met delegations from the various banks? Who represented AIB? Why their Chairman former Attorney General Dermot Gleeson.

I know we have a certain liablility (but we don't necessarily have to realise the liability, though that's a secondary issue). But our liability is for the deposits and for the bonds (i.e. investments  of some, not all of the shareholders, as I understand it). It's not for the loans to developers, which, again as I understand it, constitute the €90Bn risk. That liability belongs to the banks. Why are we undertaking it beyond the share of it that is ours by virtue of our part-ownership of the banks?

Is there not a way we can limit our risk to that we've already (rashly) taken on - the liability for deposits and bonds - while finding a mechanism to ensure we have institutions capable of lending to industry that doesn't cost an additional €60Bn?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: bcarrier on August 28, 2009, 09:48:57 AM
The government would be well out of this and let the banks sort out their own mess.

I think there are 30bn of tier 2 bondholders not even covered by the guarantee getting a free ride of the taxpayer.

Here's another solution for you  ( assuming the banks bond liabilities and developer loan asset are more or less the same).

Let the bondholders set up a NAMA lookalike.

Transfer the developers loans to the bondholders in settlement of the bonds and let them sort it out. They can pay for the valuations too.



Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on August 28, 2009, 10:08:09 AM
Quote from: bcarrier on August 28, 2009, 09:48:57 AM
The government would be well out of this and let the banks sort out their own mess.

I think there are 30bn of tier 2 bondholders not even covered by the guarantee getting a free ride of the taxpayer.

Here's another solution for you  ( assuming the banks bond liabilities and developer loan asset are more or less the same).

Let the bondholders set up a NAMA lookalike.

Transfer the developers loans to the bondholders in settlement of the bonds and let them sort it out. They can pay for the valuations too.

That isn't well known publicly.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Lone Shark on August 28, 2009, 10:14:27 AM
Quote from: Hardy on August 27, 2009, 06:02:39 PM

I know we have a certain liablility (but we don't necessarily have to realise the liability, though that's a secondary issue). But our liability is for the deposits and for the bonds (i.e. investments  of some, not all of the shareholders, as I understand it). It's not for the loans to developers, which, again as I understand it, constitute the €90Bn risk. That liability belongs to the banks. Why are we undertaking it beyond the share of it that is ours by virtue of our part-ownership of the banks?

Is there not a way we can limit our risk to that we've already (rashly) taken on - the liability for deposits and bonds - while finding a mechanism to ensure we have institutions capable of lending to industry that doesn't cost an additional €60Bn?

The problem is that the 90bn loans to developers aren't the liabilities of the banks, they are the assets of the banks. The bank took all this money off their depositors, the bond market and the interbank market and lent it to developers. Now the developers can't pay, and in turn the banks must repay what they owe.

Having said that, the idea that we're paying all this while bondholders and shareholdes continue to have value is abhorrent. Every cent onto an AIB share is a cent that the taxpayer is paying for in the current system.

We have credit unions, post offices and a wide network of ATM machines. I'm damned if we couldn't work something out to get rid of the existing banks, given that we actually wanted to of course.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on August 28, 2009, 10:31:08 AM
Imagine if the gas market collapsed bringing Shell Ireland to the brink.

Then further imagine if Shell had taken investors money to run their business in Ireland and those investors wanted their money back.

Imagine if the Government decided that Shell was of systemic importance and thus we the taxpayer then took on the Shell's liability to all those investors so that they didn't get burnt and Shell meanwhile continued operating but as a much leaner profit making machine.

Then imagine if Shell put their prices (interest rates) up for us the consumer.

Finally consider that we did all of this without taking any ownership of Shell or it's gas.

That to me is similar to what we are doing with the banks.



Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on August 28, 2009, 10:42:41 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9yjvCpHciYQ (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9yjvCpHciYQ)

I know there are hundreds of these on youtube but this is a particularly funny one.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on August 28, 2009, 11:54:54 AM
That brightened up the morning muppet - Brilliant
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: ludermor on August 28, 2009, 01:08:47 PM
If you go to 1.12 on the downfall clip, am i the only person seeing Josef Firztl?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Zapatista on August 29, 2009, 08:22:07 AM
Quote from: muppet on August 28, 2009, 10:31:08 AM
Imagine if the gas market collapsed bringing Shell Ireland to the brink.

Then further imagine if Shell had taken investors money to run their business in Ireland and those investors wanted their money back.

Imagine if the Government decided that Shell was of systemic importance and thus we the taxpayer then took on the Shell's liability to all those investors so that they didn't get burnt and Shell meanwhile continued operating but as a much leaner profit making machine.

Then imagine if Shell put their prices (interest rates) up for us the consumer.

Finally consider that we did all of this without taking any ownership of Shell or it's gas.

That to me is similar to what we are doing with the banks.

I know it's an example but just to point out that due to EU competition laws the Government cannot bail out a business. Waterford Crystal is an example. For some reason they can bail out private banks though.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on September 01, 2009, 08:41:13 AM
Good article form O'Toole this morning

Accountability to the Oireachtas will mean zero oversight and enforcement

IF YOU'RE not already worried about the National Asset Management Agency, may I offer you a single sentence from its architect and chief defender, Government economic adviser Alan Ahearne. This is from his e-mail to the group of economists who wrote in The Irish Times last week expressing their profound concerns about the scheme (Opinion and Analysis, August 26th). One of those concerns was about the transparency and accountability of Nama. Here is Dr Ahearne's rebuttal of this argument: "This is wrong. The draft legislation sets out that Nama will be accountable to the Oireachtas in the usual manner."

If this doesn't send you running to the hills, you must have nerves of steel. In itself, it is deeply worrying that anyone in a position of influence thinks that "accountable to the Oireachtas in the usual manner" is a good thing. The only formula less reassuring is the "regulated by the Financial Regulator" at the end of all those radio ads urging us to take out more loans.

The usual accountability to the Oireachtas is zero. If Alan Ahearne can point to a single moment in the last 15 years when the Oireachtas stopped any act
of gross stupidity in the management of the public finances, in the non-regulation of the banks or in the inflation of the property bubble, I'll give Nama my full support.

Who's going to enforce this accountability? The likes of Frank Fahey, a member of the Oireachtas Joint Committee on Finance? If you're in two minds about Nama, forget about me or any other sceptic. Just go to RTÉ's Morning Ireland website and listen to Fahey in debate with George Lee last Friday.

Fahey (let's call him FF for short, because he now speaks for Fianna Fáil on these matters) admittedly has some expertise in the property game. In his spare time, he has built up an extensive portfolio of apartments, houses and commercial property in Castlerea, Galway, Athlone, Limerick, Gort, Dubai, Boston, Brussels, France, Portugal and Dublin. I'm sure none of this would influence his judgment in any way but equally it does not seem to have done much for his insight into the causes and consequences of the catastrophe that has befallen us.

FF told us five breathtaking things on Friday. Firstly, Nama will work because "the property market will rebound . . . it has already started". Yesterday, McInerney Holdings wrote down the value of its land banks by another €156 million, meaning that they have now written off 52 per cent of their value since the middle of 2008.

Secondly, FF told us that Nama "is very similar to what happened in Sweden". Now, FF himself was on the Oireachtas finance committee two months ago when it questioned Bo Lundgren, who was the minister for fiscal and financial affairs during Sweden's banking crisis in the early 1990s. Lundgren told the committee that "with regard to bad banks, asset management corporations, we only used that concept with the banks that were nationalised since valuation was not a problem because we owned both the good and the bad entity". He also said, interestingly, that he did this because he is a conservative:

"I believe in market economy and market economy dictates that if we put in capital we should have the kind of influence and ownership that goes with the capital."

Thirdly, FF told us that the Irish problem was caused by foreign banks: "Look at what the foreign banks have done to Ireland at the moment . . ."

My mind is so numbed by this that I can think of only three words: Jesus, Mary and Joseph.

Fourthly, FF told us straight up that Nama is a way of giving €30 billion to the banks.

Lastly, and best of all, FF assured us that the €60 billion or so that will be borrowed from the European Central Bank on foot of Government bonds is "not taxpayers' money. It is ECB money." When George Lee again made reference to taxpayers' money, FF became loudly indignant: "I cannot believe, George, that you're saying that this €30 billion will come from the taxpayer. This money will be paid in Government bonds which will then be cashed."

These bonds, apparently, are magic money that comes from nowhere, like the money that pays for John O'Donoghue's limousines or for e-voting machines. How much oversight are we going to get from clowns who don't even know that public money is on the line?

One last point. There was some objection last week to the fact that I used the rise in house prices over building inflation to suggest that property is so overvalued in real terms that it would take another bubble for Nama to work. I used that calculation because it is the one most favourable to the pro-Nama argument. New house prices increased more than four times faster than house-building costs. But if people would like to link them to something else, how about this: they rose five times faster than average industrial earnings and more than seven times faster than the consumer price index.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: whiskeysteve on September 01, 2009, 09:48:44 AM
Link to the Morning Ireland debate referred to in the above article:

http://www.rte.ie/news/morningireland/player.html?20090828,2600687,2600687,real,209
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: ludermor on September 02, 2009, 11:05:32 AM
Out of all the shenanigans to arise from the last year has any person been as brazen as Michael Fingleton?

Fingleton cannot be forced to repay €1m
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/fingleton-cannot-be-forced-to-repay-83641m-1875146.html
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Doogie Browser on September 02, 2009, 11:13:03 AM
Quote from: ludermor on September 02, 2009, 11:05:32 AM
Out of all the shenanigans to arise from the last year has any person been as brazen as Michael Fingleton?

Fingleton cannot be forced to repay €1m
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/fingleton-cannot-be-forced-to-repay-83641m-1875146.html
He has pension options of €27m too  :o
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: orangeman on September 02, 2009, 12:00:54 PM
Quote from: muppet on August 28, 2009, 10:42:41 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9yjvCpHciYQ (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9yjvCpHciYQ)

I know there are hundreds of these on youtube but this is a particularly funny one.

"People trust me, right ? It's not as if I said I won money on the horses or had money under the mattress."  :D :D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Main Street on September 02, 2009, 12:25:23 PM
Quote from: ludermor on September 02, 2009, 11:05:32 AM
Out of all the shenanigans to arise from the last year has any person been as brazen as Michael Fingleton?

Fingleton cannot be forced to repay €1m
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/fingleton-cannot-be-forced-to-repay-83641m-1875146.html
Maybe this example would provide an opportunity to Lenihan to demonstrate the magnificence of the frequently mentioned  secret weapon of the (unlegislated) power of "moral persuasion" to recover company assets from legally protected individuals.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on September 06, 2009, 01:34:46 PM
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/david-mcwilliams/nama-money-pit-could-be-our-economic-stalingrad-1875206.html

Good article from McWilliams here.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on September 06, 2009, 01:57:32 PM
http://money.cnn.com/2009/09/04/news/companies/bank_failures/?postversion=2009090421  (http://money.cnn.com/2009/09/04/news/companies/bank_failures/?postversion=2009090421)

5 Banks closed in the US on Friday bringing the total for 2009 to 89.

We in Ireland however can't allow any financial institutions to go as they are 'systemic'. So the taxpayer will have to bailout the bondholders and investors and the others who aren't allowed by our Government to lose money.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on September 06, 2009, 01:59:29 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 06, 2009, 01:57:32 PM
http://money.cnn.com/2009/09/04/news/companies/bank_failures/?postversion=2009090421  (http://money.cnn.com/2009/09/04/news/companies/bank_failures/?postversion=2009090421)

5 Banks closed in the US on Friday bringing the total for 2009 to 89.

We in Ireland however can't allow any financial institutions to go as they are 'systemic'. So the taxpayer will have to bailout the bondholders and investors and the others who aren't allowed by our Government to lose money.
the thinking really is bizarre, there are very few plausible explanations, but one does stand out.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: bcarrier on September 06, 2009, 03:08:17 PM
The bondholder/shareholder thing is a total outrage. When you look at who they have hired to advise on the process you can see how it is happening.

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/rothschild-replaces-merrill-as-states-adviser-on-sector-crisis-1872795.html

Did they expect turkeys to vote for christmas ?
Title: No 1 in the world
Post by: passedit on September 08, 2009, 04:45:06 PM
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30308959/?slide=16 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/30308959/?slide=16)
Title: Zoeing, Zoeing, Z.......
Post by: muppet on September 10, 2009, 05:08:17 PM
http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/high-court-refuses-examiner-for-zoe-group-425870.html (http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/high-court-refuses-examiner-for-zoe-group-425870.html)

Carroll group refused Examiner.

Now it appears that AIB and BOI will bail him out by relieving ACC of their debt in return for not winding up Zoe Developements. Of course AIB & BOI can do this because NAMA will then take those debts off them, at a yet to be determined inflated rate, and the taxpayer will be the guarantor.

Everyone this site with kids could you please thank them on behalf of the Developers and Bankers of Ireland. They mightn't say it publicly but they really are grateful your kids will be paying for their mess. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: The Wedger on September 11, 2009, 07:11:32 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0911/carrolll.html

Judgment on failed Carroll application

Justice Frank Clarke has delivered his written judgment on the application for examinership by property developer Liam Carroll's Zoe group.

Mr Justice Clarke turned down the application yesterday.

In delivering his judgment, Mr Justice Clarke described prospects for the survival of the Zoe Group as at 'the further ends of optimism.'
Advertisement

The seven companies in the Zoe Group had applied for the protection of the court following moves by ACC bank to recover loans of €136m.

The companies have combined debts of €1.2bn.

The group's original application was turned down by the Commercial Court and the Supreme Court.

Over the course of a lengthy judgment this afternoon, Mr Justice Frank Clarke outlined why he believed the companies did not have a reasonable prospect of survival, which is the statutory test for examinership.

He described as a 'significant flaw in the business plan', the fact that interest rates had been calculated to remain at just 1% over the next two years or so.

Justice Clarke said the evidence of economic experts suggested that rates would rise and that even a rise of 0.5% would add four million to the companies' interest bill.

He noted that even though the plan envisaged an interest moratorium for two years, it would still have to pay the interest when it emerged at the other end, which he said could have 'a devastating impact.'

Referring to the prospects for the property market in general, he said there was a greater downside risk to prices, at least over the next two years, and there were also risks to the rental income projected by the group.

On NAMA, Mr Justice Clarke noted that in excess of 50% of the group's banking debt could be covered by the scheme and while it was impossible to speculate how NAMA would approach the loans, he said the overall interests of NAMA would not be dissimilar to a commercial bank, namely to recover as much money as possible.

Mr Justice Clarke deferred making an order on the judgment until Monday and also adjourned winding up proceedings by ACC until the same date.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on September 11, 2009, 09:29:38 PM
This was the official logo for the UK Office of Government Commerce.

Our Government should adopt it for NAMA but rotate it 90 degrees clockwise.

(http://i.telegraph.co.uk/telegraph/multimedia/archive/00664/ogc_404_664987c.jpg)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on September 15, 2009, 11:01:20 PM
(http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=aW8WQUrh.r_8)

QuoteThe loans taken over by the agency may include those given to developer Liam Carroll by Anglo Irish Bank Corp. to build its new headquarters on the north bank of the Liffey.

With Carroll now seeking protection from creditors amid debts of 1.3 billion euros, the building lies unfinished. Anglo, owed about 30 million euros, is offering another 8 million euros to allow the developer to complete the building

You really couldn't make this up.

The bank Fianna Fáil couldn't allow to fail and so have pumped billions of taxpayer's money into, is still going ahead with it's new headquarters, built by none other than Mr. Liam Carroll.

Mr. Carroll of course is in a spot of bother at the moment trying to hang on for NAMA so the subsidised Anglo is offering him our money to see him through to when he can call on more of our money.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: moysider on September 15, 2009, 11:23:09 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 11, 2009, 09:29:38 PM
This was the official logo for the UK Office of Government Commerce.

Our Government should adopt it for NAMA but rotate it 90 degrees clockwise.

(http://i.telegraph.co.uk/telegraph/multimedia/archive/00664/ogc_404_664987c.jpg)

Great spot Muppet. Class.
Title: Anglo Irish Bank to lay off hundreds of staff
Post by: muppet on September 22, 2009, 05:06:16 PM
http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/anglo-irish-bank-to-lay-off-hundreds-of-staff-427246.html (http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/anglo-irish-bank-to-lay-off-hundreds-of-staff-427246.html)

Anglo Irish Bank is reportedly planning to lay off hundreds of staff as part of a major cost-cutting programme over the coming month.

Reports this morning say the bank's 1,700 employees had an average pay packet of more than €100,000 last year, including share schemes and pension contributions.

This made Anglo staff the highest-paid in the banking sector.

The Government had to nationalise the bank in January to prevent it from going out of business and must now file a restructuring plan with the EU in November in order to comply with state aid rules.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Main Street on September 22, 2009, 05:45:50 PM
Average salary figures should be taken in the context that most of salaries are under €30K pa.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: PadraicHenryPearse on September 22, 2009, 05:51:08 PM
With IL&p not having big developer loans and not being part of NAMA, how does NAMA help them? Will they merge with Irish Nationwide and EBS? (forced to by the govt)

If people are so angry with AIB, BOI etc. why not transfer their accounts to PTSB or another bank not in NAMA as a way to show their anger.....

Some things that i was wondering, in Thailand at thefor the last 6 mths so out of touch with all back home
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on September 22, 2009, 06:09:10 PM
1,700 employees with an average remuneration of €100,000 would mean a total cost of €170,000,000 annually, paid gratefully, by the taxpayer (one way or another).

This to the people who, more than anyone else, may have put us on the road to bankruptcy.
Title: Re: Would the IMF be that bad?
Post by: Lecale2 on October 06, 2009, 12:57:42 PM
With the budget debate within Govt now back on after the Lisbon vote will the current Govt have the stomach for the cuts outlined in the McCarthy report? Those cuts aren't even enough if you look at the balance of payments.

I can't see the Greens and back- bench FF TDs voting for half of the cuts suggested.

FG/Lab don't have any real suggestions on how to balance the books and ICTU are likely to be leading strikes before long.

Politicans are trying to force voters to take the medicine with the threat of the IMF coming in to run things. Would the IMF be that bad?

It might be an easy option for politicans to get them in and let them sort the mess out and they can take the blame for the difficult decisions. What would the IMF do any way?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Caid on October 12, 2009, 04:13:52 AM
Two recent articles from UCC Economics Lecturer on NAMA.  His points on overpaying for the property loans don't seem to account for the ill feeling that people have in terms of "bailing out" the big property developers.  Just wanted to reignite this thread as it the most important thread on the Board


There remains great controversy surrounding the proposal to purchase property-related loans from banks at a price that exceeds their current market value. In the eyes of many commentators, this 'overpayment' represents a speculative misuse of taxpayer funds in the hope that underlying property values will recover within a reasonable timeframe to recoup the loss.

A counter-proposal, favoured by many economists and politicians, involves the government paying no more for these loans than they are worth today and letting the existing capital providers, i.e. shareholders and bondholders, absorb the loss. This argument has intuitive appeal in so far as taxpayers are not required to overpay for impaired loans while banks and property developers are forced to realise their losses fully and immediately.

However, it is a facile argument, in my view, to dismiss deliberate overpayment for impaired assets as foolhardy. To be sure, in a properly functioning market with plenty of buyers and sellers, the lack of justification for paying anything over the current market price is self-evident.

But in case we needed reminding, the international banking system is not functioning properly. Indeed, without extensive injections of public monies, the system would already have collapsed. Where there is no market for property-related loans, it follows that there is no current market price. As such, the debate around the correct price for these assets is somewhat of a red herring.

Better, in my opinion, to shift focus away from the moot question of 'overpayment' and consider the merits of the NAMA bill from a taxpayers' perspective in the broadest sense.

In essence, NAMA proposes to borrow money by issuing bonds which banks can then pawn at the European Central Bank (ECB) for cash. Because the ECB is effectively underwriting the deal, the Irish government is in a position to remove property-related assets from banks' balance sheets and replace them with government-backed bonds.

This arrangement indirectly opens up a credit line between the Irish government, operating via NAMA, and the ECB. In effect, the ECB has come to the rescue of the Irish taxpayer. Given our current fiscal position and the significant size of the banking sector, bond markets would not touch Irish bonds if the ECB did not stand ready to accept newly issued government paper as collateral against cash advances.

The more pertinent issue for the Irish taxpayer, now, is how the additional borrowing requirement under NAMA will affect our international creditworthiness and whether Ireland can continue to meet its borrowing costs without having to aggressively raise taxes in the future.

In this regard, we can only hope that renewed commitment to fiscal prudence and willingness to take decisive action in relation to impaired loans continues to be reflected in relatively benign borrowing costs for the government.

If the investment into the banks is successful in re-igniting productive lending in the economy, the fiscal position can be expected to improve in line with the global cycle.
Thus, the real bet for the Irish taxpayer is whether NAMA will indeed be successful in quickly getting credit flowing in the economy and that this will be a significant support to economic activity and the fiscal position in time.

With the ECB on board, international bond markets should remain reasonably comfortable with the NAMA proposal as evidenced by the narrowing of Irish sovereign bond spreads on its announcement.

Alternatively, the government could aggressively mark down the value of impaired loans which would generate significant losses for existing shareholders and bondholders. Many support this idea on the belief that the providers of risk capital should be made to bear significant losses so as to prevent moral hazard.

However, excessive dilution of existing bank capital is not sensible. By definition, access to private funding is inadequate in a credit crunch and the government is forced to become capital provider of last resort. Therefore, an overly aggressive write down in the value of existing equity and bond holdings simply means that the taxpayer has to provide the residual funds needed to re-ignite bank lending.   

To limit the cash commitment up front, the government could decide to bear all future banking risk through nationalisation. But why do this voluntarily, unless one believes that the state is best positioned to take responsibility for a banking sector balance sheet that has ballooned to over €400bn. Moreover, nationalisation does not appear to have the support of international capital markets given that default protection costs more for Anglo Irish Bank than its privately held peers.   

It is also worth noting that much of the existing private capital in Irish banks comes from domestic pension funds. Any decision to sharply devalue existing bank capital is likely to significantly dilute Irish pension fund returns. It is not the 'fat cat' investors that would be most affected but ordinary taxpayers and future retirees.

In addition, bank debt is widely held by other financial institutions, both domestic and international. A unilateral government decision to default on existing bond holdings risks damaging Ireland's international credit status, a cost which would ultimately be borne by the Irish taxpayer.

The NAMA concept is far from perfect. It is expensive, risky and difficult to understand. However, because it has the broad support of the ECB, the IMF and international capital markets, I believe that it does present us with the best opportunity to quickly re-ignite the credit flow in the economy at a manageable cost.

The primary objective must be to get the banking system back on its feet so that future profits from the sector can be levied heavily to sufficiently compensate the ordinary taxpayer. 

Don Walshe lectures financial economics in University College Cork.



Throughout the NAMA debate, there has been a great willingness on all sides to focus exclusively on future property values as the primary means of generating a return for the beleaguered Irish taxpayer.

Inevitably, such a narrow focus has resulted in fierce protest to what is perceived as a €54 billion gamble of taxpayer money on future property values. Such a blinkered view of taxpayer exposure, in my opinion, remains a highly frustrating aspect of the public discourse, as our attention is continually diverted from the more important issue of the country's medium-term economic prospects.

If the NAMA legislation were to be properly framed in a wider economic context, it might not appear to be such an unholy waste of taxpayer money. Moreover, in this context, the perceived transfer of wealth from taxpayers to private interests is likely to be significantly overstated by its opponents.

First of all, NAMA does not have to make a profit to be successful. NAMA simply proposes to exchange borrowed money for bad loans. If this were a profitable venture, the private sector would have taken care of these loans long ago.

It so happens that previous 'bad' banks, such as the Resolution Trust Corporation in the US and Securum in Sweden made a profit but this should not be seen as NAMA's raison d'etre. There is simply no way of telling at this point what property prices will do in the future.

Similarly, NAMA is not specifically designed to make money for the taxpayer. Instead, it should be regarded as means of limiting the cost the taxpayer arising from twin crises relating to banking and government finances. The ultimate cost to the taxpayer will depend on the extent to which the economy and tax revenues benefit from the intervention. 

If international lenders have more confidence in Ireland's fiscal position post-NAMA, then the burden on Irish taxpayers can be expected to ease over time.  Already, Irish borrowing costs on international markets are falling.

To price bad loans with the sole objective of making NAMA profitable, effectively turns the Irish taxpayer into a property speculator. With the taxpayer seeking to pay as little as possible for the loans, public motives would be no different from those of any private sector investor, rendering the exercise utterly pointless.   

To put the NAMA intervention in context, we must recall that in September 2008, the Irish government wrote a €100 billion insurance policy for Irish deposits and other liabilities. With the stroke of a pen, this move created a contingent liability for the Irish taxpayer which amounted to twice the country's outstanding national debt at the time.

Undoubtedly such intervention was necessary but the effects on the country's credit quality did not go unnoticed by international markets. Ireland's borrowing costs soared, thus creating an automatic medium-term burden on Irish taxpayers given the need to radically tighten fiscal policy.

The real gamble with NAMA amounts to whether this burden can be eased significantly through time if the taxpayer goes guarantor on a €54 billion loan at cheaper than market rates. Of course it is a significant gamble with taxpayers' money. It should not, however, be seen in the narrow context of a gamble on property prices.

Moreover, if banks appear to be benefiting excessively from taxpayer guarantees in the future, there are many ways to recoup the social dividend involving tax levies or some other equity-related mechanism.

NAMA is a €54 billion gamble on the future of the Irish economy. Contrary to popular debate, the Irish economy need not always be about property values. I thought we would have learnt that much at least from the 'celtic tiger' era.

Don Walshe lectures financial economics in University College Cork.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: bcarrier on October 12, 2009, 12:36:57 PM
If you are interested in the subject - and everyone who pays tax in the country should be - have a look at the board on the www.thepropertypin.com .

NAMA may have some advantages for the chosen few in development circles but it is above all a (massive) bail out of subordinated debt holders and shareholders within the banks by future generations of taxpayers.

It is a done deal so no point in stressing about it. Worry about the euro's strength against the £ instead.



Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Main Street on October 12, 2009, 12:58:42 PM
Don Walshe lectures financial economics in University College Cork.

QuoteIndeed, without extensive injections of public monies, the system would already have collapsed. Where there is no market for property-related loans, it follows that there is no current market price. As such, the debate around the correct price for these assets is somewhat of a red herring.

Is the debate over asset price a red herring?  Why does he say there is no current market price? Can the economist not get out a calculator and do some maths?
Market price for houses should have a relation to rational costs and purchase price should have a rational relationship to earnings/purchasing capacity.
House prices have been inflated, primarily in relation to building land prices.
Building land prices could soar because money supply was increased.
People could afford to pay the fantastic rise in prices, not because their earnings hit the roof but because money supply in the form of mortgages hit the roof.

What is so sacred about land prices/house prices that they can't be fixed in relation to salaries.
What is so sacred about fixing a rational  mortgage/salary/ house price  ratio?
We find that Government can give tax relief to the well off, cut spending, impose wage freezes, even impose wage cuts but they cannot fix the price for land.

Economists call the debate over asset price a red herring while ignoring the smell from thousands of people burdened with high mortgages and reduced services, adding on the NAMA debt to the nation which has the impossible target of getting a return from property speculation fueled, inflated assets.
And why? because they claim the debate over asset price to be a red herring.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Billys Boots on October 12, 2009, 01:13:57 PM
Those articles raise more questions than answers.  ::)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on October 13, 2009, 08:05:26 AM
Green Party obliterated by great Nama denial


FINTAN O'TOOLE

The nice gestures in the programme for government are trifling compared with the absurdities it supports

ONE OF the nice things about writing a column in Ireland is that you don't have to work very hard for your metaphors. If you wanted to encapsulate the death of the Green Party in a little moral tale, you'd be hard put to come up with a better one than John Gormley's ostentatiously eco-friendly trip to the UK on the ferry, after which he was picked up by a limo that drove from London to Holyhead at a cost of €2,200. If you think of the ferry as Green principles and the limo as Fianna Fáil culture, you have a perfect image for the charade that was played out at the weekend.

The renewed programme for government has lots of ferry moments: lovely stuff about education, political reform, public transport and the green economy. It can sail happily over a sea of doubt until it reaches the far shore of political reality, where it will be picked up by the Fianna Fáil limo called Nama. When all the aspirations and all the gestures have been left behind, it is Nama that will shape the real world in which power will be exercised. And it is driven by Fianna Fáil and everything it represents: the attempt to shore up a failed system using sacks of public money as sandbags.

To understand the extent to which the Greens have been reduced to gesture politics, let's consider one thing that is in the programme and two that are not.

The thing that's there, the fig leaf to cover the Greens' nakedness, is the inclusion of a levy on the banks in the event that Nama makes a loss. It is a triple sham.

Firstly, the levy was already part of the Government's proposal. Secondly, it contains an obvious escape hatch: it will be "carefully judged so as not to disrupt the stability and sustainability of the banking system". In other words, it will not be imposed if it does any real harm to the banks' profits and share prices.

Thirdly, it is entirely meaningless in relation to the very worst aspects of Nama, the pouring of public funds into the zombie institutions Anglo Irish and Nationwide.

These dead banks, which account for half of the liabilities that Nama will assume, will never be able to pay a levy because they will never function as commercial banks. And Anglo is, in any case, in public ownership – we would be paying a levy to ourselves.

Now let's look at the two things that are not in the programme. Both are completely central to any idea of sustainable development. The first is the implementation of the Kenny report on the control of building land by allowing local authorities to buy it at the agricultural price plus 25 per cent. It has been an absolute mainstay of Green policy since the party was formed. There's not a word about it in the programme. What we get instead is a wind-powered exhalation about "a long-term strategy of land acquisition in order to meet at a reasonable price the needs of both market and non-market providers".

The second non-appearance is the urgent issue of upward-only rent reviews for commercial property. This has to be tackled right now: ludicrously high rents are closing Irish businesses every day and throwing workers on the dole queues. The Greens have been going on about this for ages. All we've got on the table is a very weak proposal to outlaw the practice for new leases. What have the Greens, and the Irish retail sector, got to show for all the posturing? Nothing.

And why is nothing happening on these two crucial issues? Because change would not suit the Nama strategy. Implementing Kenny would bring down long-term property values, while Nama needs them to grow. Banning upwards-only rent reviews would expose one of the big flaws in the Nama strategy. Brian Lenihan has repeatedly pointed to the "health" of commercial rents as a sign that the property market will bounce back.

The reality that all of this is based on an absurd insistence that rents cannot be negotiated downwards has to be denied.

The Greens are now entirely complicit in this denial. In a week when the value of the Irish Glass Bottle site in Dublin was officially downgraded from the €413 million that was paid for it to just €60 million – a fall of 85 per cent – the party is telling us, as the programme puts it, that "the Government's approach to asset valuation within the Nama initiative is carefully balanced and reasonable".

Putting what remains of Green ideas and idealism into a zombie government is a waste of political capital in the same sense that putting €30 billion of public resources into a zombie bank (Anglo) is a waste of financial capital.

For all the nice gestures, it will be just as productive. The Greens are now in that publicly funded luxury limo, sitting comfortably on the road to perdition.
Title: Morgan Kelly
Post by: bcarrier on October 13, 2009, 09:31:06 AM
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2009/1013/1224256508947.html


Turning bank debt into equity will save us from Nama ruin

MORGAN KELLY

History shows Nama-style bad banks are profoundly corrupt and corrupting institutions. If Nama didn't happen, the alternative would involve minimal cost to the taxpayer and banks would manage their business without political interference

WHILE MOST economists by now simply dismiss Brian Lenihan's utterances on the economy as "not even wrong", this is to miss the Minister's almost eerie ability to predict exactly the opposite of what is going to happen. Merely to contradict Brian Lenihan is virtually to guarantee that you will later be credited with supernatural prescience.

Who else, as Irish bank shares plunged 13 months ago, could conclude: "Our banks uniquely have weathered this storm . . . We are in a zone of financial stability in a very troubled financial world."? Two weeks later, having been panicked into his catastrophic bank liability guarantee, the Minister assured us that we had "the cheapest bailout in the world so far", and six weeks later averred that: "It is not the function of the Government to fund or bail out the banks."

The effortless miscalculations, the assured non sequiturs, the lofty indifference to facts: all reveal Brian Lenihan as a master of what Princeton philosopher Harry Frankfurt defined succinctly in his 1986 paper, On Bullshit .

The Nama legislation, as expected, piles up this material on an Augean scale. Prices have fallen 47 per cent; the long-term economic value of property is 30 per cent below its peak value; the loan-to-value ratio is 77 per cent; prices only need to rise by 10 per cent in 10 years for the State to break even.

To subject these almost poetic flights of ministerial imagination to any sort of rational analysis will seem to many like vandalism, but that is what God made economists for.

First, the estimate that prices have fallen 47 per cent. The reality is that prices can only exist when there is a market, and the market for commercial property and development land has disappeared.

A less futile exercise is to ask how much Nama would have cost at the end of similar credit-fuelled price bubbles. A decade after their peaks, Tokyo land prices had fallen by five-sixths, while Irish farmland, adjusted for inflation, had fallen by three-quarters. Had Brian Lenihan bought €77 billion of either, applying the proposed Nama discount of 30 per cent, he would have lost €35 billion-€40 billion on our behalf, or roughly €20,000 per taxpayer, and that is before adding interest.

At a quarter of national income, Nama would dwarf the cost of previous bank bailouts, which varied from about 3 per cent of GDP in Sweden to 14 per cent in Finland and Japan.

Most baffling of all the Nama numbers is the proposed discount of 30 per cent, implying that the "long-term economic value" of property is at 2004 prices. Not one shred of evidence is offered for this assertion, the keystone of the Government's strategy.

At first, I thought that this mystical 30 per cent number embodied Fianna Fáil nostalgia for a vanished era of innocent greed; a hope that we would wake up one morning and find ourselves back in 2004 forever, basking in the benevolent gaze of Bertie Ahern and Seán FitzPatrick. The reality turns out to be a lot more mundane. The EU simply forbade Lenihan to pay any more. This is not through any dismay at seeing Irish taxpayers fleeced by their Government, but for fear that they will be stiffed into carrying out an Iceland-style rescue here.

The figure of a 77 per cent loan-to-value ratio is equally fanciful. It will take years for the courts and Fraud Squad to disentangle multiple personal guarantees and imaginary collateral. The situation in Anglo Irish Bank appears particularly grave.

Finally, there is the assumption that the Irish Government can continue to borrow forever at low rates from the European Central Bank. However, the ECB is making no secret of its dismay at being turned into a credit union for feckless Micks, and is anxious to end such emergency lending facilities within the next year.

Once the ECB slams the window on its fingers, the Government will be forced to borrow at market rates of 5 per cent or more. In the next decade, this will add another €25 billion or so to taxpayers' losses from Nama.

Property speculation was a mania that swept every level of Irish society, from hairdressers buying apartments in Bulgaria to dentists taking out second mortgages to join commercial property syndicates. Business owners were not immune to the lure of effortless wealth, and many borrowed heavily to gamble in property.

As one banker put it: "We are happy to restore their credit line as soon as they repay us the €15 million they borrowed to buy that land bank on the edge of town." The destruction of the Irish commercial class, who we might have hoped to be an engine of export led recovery as they were in the 1990s, is likely to prove one of the most enduring and costly legacies of the property bubble.

Forcing banks to lend to SMEs will only compound our problems. One condition of the Japanese bank recapitalisation in 1999 was that they lend to small firms, but the effect was to heap a second layer of non-performing loans onto existing property losses.

As well as being expensive, history shows Nama-style bad banks to be profoundly corrupt and corrupting institutions. After the financial crisis in 1931, the US, Germany and Austria all set up bad banks which turned into conduits for directing funds to politically connected enterprises.

Bad banks are the means for governments to choose which oligarchs will survive to emerge even stronger than before. They do not just happen to behave in a corrupt and anti-democratic manner: it is what they are designed to do.

And do not forget that, even after the crushing expense of Nama, Irish banks will still be seriously short of capital. Under the current, deliberately lax, international bank regulations, AIB and Bank of Ireland need capital of around €8.5 billion.

Financial markets, which assume that Nama will go through, value their existing capital at around €3 billion, and adding Government preference shares of €3.5 billion leaves them short about €2 billion each. Once stricter capital requirements are imposed next year (the so-called Basel 3 process), this shortfall will probably rise to €6 billion.

Nama then, will turn out to be expensive, corrupting, and inadequate. While the abject, almost endearing, eagerness of the Greens to please their Fianna Fáil masters means Nama is almost certain to go ahead, it is perhaps worth asking what would happen if it did not.

All that needs to be done is for ownership of Irish banks to be transferred to their bondholders. This process of converting debt into equity occurs sufficiently often in banking to have a name: resolution. Resolution offers a way for Irish banks to be adequately recapitalised at no cost to the taxpayer, and able to manage their business without political interference.

Under existing Irish corporate law, this transfer would be a recipe for centuries of litigation. That is why most other industrialised economies have, or are introducing, special legislation to resolve failing banks with limited judicial review. Particularly impressive is the UK's Special Resolution Regime introduced last February, which could easily serve as a template for similar legistlation here.

Instead we will get Nama. Brian Lenihan assures us that Fianna Fáil's monument to a decade of waste, corruption, and ultimate ruin will not be wasteful, corrupt, and ultimately ruinous.

Let us hope that, for once, he is not wrong.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Caid on October 20, 2009, 09:44:21 PM
NAMA won't be part of national debt
Tuesday, 20 October 2009 17:04

The cost of funding the National Asset Management Agency will not be added to the national debt.

The European Commission's statistical service Eurostat has accepted the Government's method of treating NAMA as an off balance sheet Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV), which will not be included in the figures used to calculate the national debt.

The €54 billion required to fund NAMA represents around 30% of gross domestic product (GDP), or economic output. On top of the very rapid increase in the Government debt as a result of borrowing to fund the budget deficit, the inclusion of the NAMA sum in the national debt calculation would have pushed the country's debt/GDP ration well over 100% next year.

AdvertisementUnder the EU stability and growth pact, countries are supposed to have a debt/GDP ratio of 60% or less. The Irish Government has been given five years - instead of the normal two - to get its debt ratio down to the target figures. Not having the NAMA money included makes that task easier.

The most recent Department of Finance estimate for Ireland's debt ratio is 59% for the end of this year, rising to 73% by the end of next year.

Eurostat's decision is subject to the setting up of certain entities which will be the legal holders of the NAMA assets, while NAMA will retain effective control and a veto on decision-making. These special purpose vehicles will include private equity.

The Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan welcomed the preliminary decision, but the department also pointed out that it did not change the fact that NAMA would increase the State's potential liabilities

From RTE
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Caid on October 20, 2009, 09:49:56 PM

Another RTE article which notes, but doesn't describe in detail, how ARC will seek to generate money for foreign Pension Funds

ARC believed to have €3 billion in backing
  Tuesday, 20 October 2009 14:03
Asset Resolution Corporation, the new vehicle established to buy property loans from foreign owned banks, is believed to have commitments of about €3 billion from financial backers.

The company is targeting banks which are not covered by National Asset Management Agency.

Two big names in business have teamed up for this venture. Mark Duffy is the former chief executive of Bank of Scotland (Ireland), while Kevin Warren is one of Ireland's biggest property fund managers.

AdvertisementTheir new company will buy property loan portfolios from foreign banks in Ireland at a discount. Those banks could include Ulster Bank, Bank of Scotland (Ireland), National Irish Bank and ACCBank.

It is believed that ARC's funds will come from institutional investors such as British pension funds. Some of the money will be borrowed and could be borrowed from the banks the new company will be buying loans from.

Those investors will want to want to see a 15% return on their money in over a seven to ten year period. The new company will seek to take over loans early next year.

Foreign owned banks operating here will not be covered by the NAMA legislation as they are in receipt of assistance from other governments.

'As NAMA is unable to provide a solution that includes the foreign banks based in Ireland, ARC has been established to fill this gap. This proposition has allowed us to attract a considerable level of support from the international investment community,' commented Mark Duffy.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: bcarrier on October 21, 2009, 11:00:05 AM
Read this please ....


http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2009/10/economics-21102009-ireland-most.html

It is shocking beyond belief. 51% of any upside in NAMA sold for less than 0.2% of the capital requirement.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Caid on October 21, 2009, 02:12:33 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on October 21, 2009, 11:00:05 AM
Read this please ....


http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2009/10/economics-21102009-ireland-most.html

It is shocking beyond belief. 51% of any upside in NAMA sold for less than 0.2% of the capital requirement.

Interesting article
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on October 28, 2009, 09:54:48 AM
The Irish Independent also reports that an apartment block developed by former IRA hunger striker Thomas McFeely has been put on the market for sale in one lot for only €3m.
This works out at an average €100,000 per apartment - less than half the prices being asked for two-bedroom apartments in other developments at Mulhuddart in Dublin 15.
Located just minutes from the village on the Blakestown Road, the block contains 30 apartments, of which 24 are two bedrooms, three accommodate three bedrooms and three have one bedroom each.
The apartments were owned by Mr McFeely and his fellow builder Laurence O'Mahony, but they lost them a few months ago when ACC Bank appointed receiver Martin Ferris to recover its outstanding debts from the developers.
Repayment arrears of more than €600,000 had accumulated on their loan of €6.2m. The loan was secured against rents which the duo were collecting from the Mulhuddart apartments. It was also secured on 38 acres owned by Mr O'Mahony at Dunboyne, Co Meath.
In an affidavit resisting the application, both developers argued the loan was a 20-year facility and they had told ACC the arrears would be tackled through insurance monies due, following a fire at the Mulhuddart premises.
David Brown of HT Meagher O'Reilly, the estate agent who is handling the sale, says that the block comes with vacant possession and the fire damage affected only an area of the underground car park.
He is seeking one buyer for the whole apartment block, which is one of the reasons for the sharp discount on average apartment prices. It has already sparked interest from a few private investors.
Settlement
Now aged 60, Mr McFeely endured 53 days on hunger strike during the H-Block protests in which a number of hunger strikers died.
Some years ago he made a settlement of €9m with the Criminal Assets Bureau.
Earlier this year, solicitor-turned-property developer Noel Smyth brought legal action for €130m in damages against both the duo and developer Liam Carroll for alleged breach of contract, and loss of tax breaks and profits, relating to delays in the development of a section of the site adjoining The Square shopping centre in Tallaght.
Mr Smyth claimed that Mr McFeely and Mr O'Mahony had reneged on a deal to sell him the site.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on October 28, 2009, 10:01:35 AM
QuoteThe apartments were owned by Mr McFeely and his fellow builder Laurence O'Mahony, but they lost them a few months ago when ACC Bank appointed receiver Martin Ferris to recover its outstanding debts from the developers.

Is it just me?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on October 28, 2009, 10:03:39 AM
I laughed at that one as well muppet. I'm sure it's just a coincidence!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on October 30, 2009, 01:38:49 PM
Alleged evidence of more lawbreaking at our esteemed Nationalised bank.

http://www.rte.ie/business/2009/1030/anglo.html (http://www.rte.ie/business/2009/1030/anglo.html)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Caid on November 03, 2009, 12:48:10 AM
Named this in my top 3 threads so need to keep it alive...

The Irish Home Builders Association has said house prices have reached the bottom of the downturn. The organisation, which represents 1,500 home builders, says that new home prices have fallen on average by around 40%.

The association's Winter Housing Review and Outlook for 2009 says current prices are not sustainable and companies will not resume house building until prices reflect the cost of inputs and a reasonable return on investments.

The IHBA also claims that the level of unsold housing stock is being exaggerated and represents around eight months supply in normalised market conditions.

AdvertisementRural once-off houses will the only homes built this and next year according to Dominic Doheny, Chairperson of the Irish Home Builders Association.

He said that market recovery will be characterised by a strong regional influence, which will see Dublin and built-up areas recover more quickly.

The review says that in the last three years, Leitrim has had the highest number of house completions per head of population than any other county in Ireland. Leitrim had three times more houses completed per head of population than Wicklow.

The outlook claims that house price falls are higher than has been estimated up to now and have bottomed out.

The highest fall in prices mentioned in the report are 46% and relate to a development in Leixlip, Co Kildare in which one bedroom apartments fell in price from €250,000 to €135,000.

Dominic Doheny said a lot of builders are selling to create cash flow to meet borrowings rather than for profit. He said such an approach can not continue into the future.

He said no new houses would be built in the current environment and there is no incentive to start a new development given the market price situation.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on December 05, 2009, 03:45:23 PM
http://www.breakingnews.ie/business/us-bank-closed-down-437038.html (http://www.breakingnews.ie/business/us-bank-closed-down-437038.html)

US regulators shut down Ohio's AmTrust Bank, the fourth-largest American bank to fail this year.

They also closed five others, bringing to 130 the number of US banks to be brought down so far in 2009 by recession and mountains of bad debt.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp took over AmTrust Bank, based in Cleveland, with about $12bn (€8bn) in assets and eight billion US dollars in deposits. Its failure is expected to cost the federal deposit insurance fund an estimated $2bn (€1.3bn).



Oh the weather outside is Anglo,
Let it go, let it go , let it go.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on December 09, 2009, 05:23:10 PM
http://www.breakingnews.ie/business/eymhqlojidey/ (http://www.breakingnews.ie/business/eymhqlojidey/)

Govt may need to inject another €4bn into Anglo

09/12/2009 - 15:17:21
It is feared the Government may have to inject more cash into Anglo Irish Bank.

The nationalised bank may need up to €4bn next year.

It is said that it is money the Government hasn't allowed for in the 2010 Exchequer figures.

It has also been said that Anglo may suffer a €10bn loss on the money going into NAMA
.



If that were to be the case we would have to put the entire sum saved in today's savage budget.....into Anglo Irish fukcing Bank next year.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Rossfan on December 09, 2009, 06:01:14 PM
Isnt that what the offensive cnuts wanted it for  >:(
A Budget written by Bankers for w*nkers to announce to screw the plain people and help the greedy sc**bag *******ers who destroyed the best economy in Europe.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on December 09, 2009, 06:04:53 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on December 09, 2009, 06:01:14 PM
Isnt that what the offensive cnuts wanted it for  >:(
A Budget written by Bankers for w*nkers to announce to screw the plain people and help the greedy sc**bag *******ers who destroyed the best economy in Europe.

A yes forget the tens of thousands of private sector workers who will lose their jobs, who are no more guilty than private sector workers, people whose income already hit and most of whom where earning less than civil servants, a yes blame the bankers but I will continue to blame the wankers (Public Sector)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Rossfan on December 09, 2009, 06:22:49 PM
That's right ya eejit ...it was the civil Servants who got Anglo Irish and Irish Nationwide to borrow 80 Billion for them so they could buy property .  ::)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: INDIANA on December 09, 2009, 06:26:13 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on December 09, 2009, 06:22:49 PM
That's right ya eejit ...it was the civil Servants who got Anglo Irish and Irish Nationwide to borrow 80 Billion for them so they could buy property .  ::)

And the dumb f**kers in the financial regulator who never kept tabs on them rossfan - your forgot that bit.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Rossfan on December 09, 2009, 06:37:25 PM
Acting under orders from Ahern/McCreevy/PDs etc ...ahh sure dont be bothering the banks with oul rules especially when me builder mates from the Galway tent want them to keep shovelling out the Billions€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on December 09, 2009, 06:38:42 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on December 09, 2009, 06:37:25 PM
Acting under orders from Ahern/McCreevy/PDs etc ...ahh sure dont be bothering the banks with oul rules especially when me builder mates from the Galway tent want them to keep shovelling out the Billions€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€

Who all those public sector workers voted for to "oil their greasy till"

"I voz only vollowing Z orders heir Soap"
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Rossfan on December 09, 2009, 06:43:16 PM
Voting in this country is by secret ballot so you have no idea how anyone voted.
Stick to the facts buckeen.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on December 09, 2009, 07:05:12 PM
Who did you vote for Rossfan?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: INDIANA on December 09, 2009, 07:13:22 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on December 09, 2009, 06:37:25 PM
Acting under orders from Ahern/McCreevy/PDs etc ...ahh sure dont be bothering the banks with oul rules especially when me builder mates from the Galway tent want them to keep shovelling out the Billions€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€

They had a responsibility to the taxpayer and they decided not to fufill their job descritption. Changing the subject won't change that. The public sector has made a healthy contribution in ensuring we're in the shithouse.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on December 09, 2009, 07:19:09 PM
Quote from: INDIANA on December 09, 2009, 07:13:22 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on December 09, 2009, 06:37:25 PM
Acting under orders from Ahern/McCreevy/PDs etc ...ahh sure dont be bothering the banks with oul rules especially when me builder mates from the Galway tent want them to keep shovelling out the Billions€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€

They had a responsibility to the taxpayer and they decided not to fufill their job descritption. Changing the subject won't change that. The public sector has made a healthy contribution in ensuring we're in the shithouse.

Many teachers had mini property portfolios all over the country, sure what else would they be doing during their extended paid holidays, after they made all their additional claims for supervision and correcting exams, you can only be kept interested in tracking your generous pensions and gauranteed pay increments for so long and there is only so many paid school trips to Rome that once can take before getting bored.

Sure if it all gets too much for me, I can call a strike on tuesday, go on the piss tuesday night, hit Copper Face Jacks, wake up at 12pm, turn up at the picket line for 15 minutes, get in the Car and head for the border to go shopping in ASDA.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Rossfan on December 09, 2009, 08:04:41 PM
Quote from: INDIANA on December 09, 2009, 07:13:22 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on December 09, 2009, 06:37:25 PM
Acting under orders from Ahern/McCreevy/PDs etc ...ahh sure dont be bothering the banks with oul rules especially when me builder mates from the Galway tent want them to keep shovelling out the Billions€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€

They had a responsibility to the taxpayer and they decided not to fufill their job descritption. Changing the subject won't change that. The public sector has made a healthy contribution in ensuring we're in the shithouse.

The subject is the disgraceful use of public money to bail out the banker/builder sc**bag golden circle galway tent cnuts.
Your analogy is like blaming the Guards because some one breaks the Law.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: INDIANA on December 09, 2009, 08:14:30 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on December 09, 2009, 08:04:41 PM
Quote from: INDIANA on December 09, 2009, 07:13:22 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on December 09, 2009, 06:37:25 PM
Acting under orders from Ahern/McCreevy/PDs etc ...ahh sure dont be bothering the banks with oul rules especially when me builder mates from the Galway tent want them to keep shovelling out the Billions€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€

They had a responsibility to the taxpayer and they decided not to fufill their job descritption. Changing the subject won't change that. The public sector has made a healthy contribution in ensuring we're in the shithouse.



The subject is the disgraceful use of public money to bail out the banker/builder sc**bag golden circle galway tent cnuts.
Your analogy is like blaming the Guards because some one breaks the Law.

No it isn't. according to you this is all the private sectors fault. When it was the public sector who ensured they got the latitiude they needed to operate within. The politicians entertained them in Galway, the financial regulator turned a blind eye to the lending practices in the banks, the Revenue gave them lovely juicy accelerated capital allowances.
Its all- inter-related.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Zapatista on December 09, 2009, 08:24:20 PM
Quote from: INDIANA on December 09, 2009, 08:14:30 PM
No it isn't. according to you this is all the private sectors fault. When it was the public sector who ensured they got the latitiude they needed to operate within. The politicians entertained them in Galway, the financial regulator turned a blind eye to the lending practices in the banks, the Revenue gave them lovely juicy accelerated capital allowances.
Its all- inter-related.

This is the key. Both the public and private sectors are equal in their part. We are all dependant on both sectors.

It's too easy to blame sectors as it leaves individuals without responibilty.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on December 09, 2009, 08:36:39 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on December 09, 2009, 08:24:20 PM
Quote from: INDIANA on December 09, 2009, 08:14:30 PM
No it isn't. according to you this is all the private sectors fault. When it was the public sector who ensured they got the latitiude they needed to operate within. The politicians entertained them in Galway, the financial regulator turned a blind eye to the lending practices in the banks, the Revenue gave them lovely juicy accelerated capital allowances.
Its all- inter-related.

This is the key. Both the public and private sectors are equal in their part. We are all dependant on both sectors.

It's too easy to blame sectors as it leaves individuals without responibilty.

The public v private row is created by, and for the benefit of, the Government. The usual media suspects peddle this crap. The relationship between the media and the Government is a major problem in this country. The largest daily publication is in their pocket while the second largest is edited by a former PD TD.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on December 09, 2009, 08:47:46 PM
I take offence to the lines spouted by the likes of Ross, he continually saying  kunt this and bad bastard that towards builders and bankers, remember 95% of these people are the ordinary people too, former members of those sectors make up a very large proportion of the unemployed, who are also the ordinary people.

If I hear another f**king Public Sector Worker rant and rave on the TV about them being the ordinary decent people of Ireland and all those in finance and building caused everything. WRONG. You are turning everybody against yourselves, every time the rest of the ordinary people of Ireland hear yet another deluded public sector worker rant of this sad line you lose support. Listen everybody else has suffered already and sorry but you need to face the realities of the economic situation.

Then there is the argument that the private sector workers all had it good during the Celtic Tiger, cop on most did not. I saw who had the money and a very high percentage of it was in the hands of the public sector workers, who where indulging in the excesses of the Celtic Tiger and its property addiction as much as everybody else. Yes you have mortgages, but they are much easier to pay on a reduced salary than on the dole.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Rossfan on December 09, 2009, 09:00:22 PM
I most humbly apologise to the great patriots like Seanie Fitzpatrick, Seanie Dunne,Mickeen Fingleton and the others who were saving the Country from ............ourselves probably.
Indiana ... that Financial Non Regulator and the Revenue did what their Government masters told them to. Light touch regulation as the neo liberal right wing economists call it.
And it isnt the working classes private or public  who are getting bailed out by Lenihan ...its the Banker and Developer cnuts.
Q E D.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on December 09, 2009, 09:03:50 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on December 09, 2009, 09:00:22 PM
I most humbly apologise to the great patriots like Seanie Fitzpatrick, Seanie Dunne,Mickeen Fingleton and the others who were saving the Country from ............ourselves probably.
Indiana ... that Financial Non Regulator and the Revenue did what their Government masters told them to. Light touch regulation as the neo liberal right wing economists call it.
And it isnt the working classes private or public  who are getting bailed out by Lenihan ...its the Banker and Developer cnuts.
Q E D.

Who do you think the 5% at the top in the Banking and Building industries employ, yes thats it the other fckn 95%

If the public sector are willing to strike this country into the ground, I would call on all private sector workers do the same, lets strike this country back into the stoneage, no shops, no banks, no taxis, no mechanics, no pubs, no new roads, no maintenance, no utilities, no transport, NOTHING, every man, woman and child for themselves, lets sulk ourselfs out of existence.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: INDIANA on December 09, 2009, 10:14:27 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on December 09, 2009, 09:00:22 PM
I most humbly apologise to the great patriots like Seanie Fitzpatrick, Seanie Dunne,Mickeen Fingleton and the others who were saving the Country from ............ourselves probably.
Indiana ... that Financial Non Regulator and the Revenue did what their Government masters told them to. Light touch regulation as the neo liberal right wing economists call it.
And it isnt the working classes private or public  who are getting bailed out by Lenihan ...its the Banker and Developer cnuts.
Q E D.

Bullshit they did neither. They abdicated their responsibilities as much as anyone in the private sector did. There no directives handed down to the Financial Regulator from the Government because we had no financial regulation. Do you honestly think FF wanted financial regulation when they were neck deep in their own property deals? No there was plenty of scope for a competent individual in that organisation to implement and come up with policy. they chose not to do so and took their 6 figure salaries and pensions.
Thats the Irish Public Sector in a nutshell. Unfortunately in this country we had neither a competent public or private sector.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on December 09, 2009, 10:19:58 PM
Rossfan you didn't answer my question, did you vote for Fianna Fail?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Rossfan on December 10, 2009, 06:27:00 PM
Not that it's any of your business but anyway ...
1997 voted FF
2002 voted Ming and everyone else on paper except FF/PD( we were in with Longford where there was a PD)
2007 Green/SF/Feighan(Blueshirt :-[ but a sound lad)

from Indiana ..."took their 6 figure salaries and pensions.
Thats the Irish Public Sector in a nutshell. "

I think you'll find the vast vast majority never get near 6 figure sums or pensions.
But you're right as regards Financial (non)Regulators  and while I'm at it ..why the fcuk do we need a Central Bank when we havent got a currency any more ?
Surely that should have been abolished in 2002 ..another place with a good proportion of 6 figure earners.
So we now have maybe 250,000 households in "negative equity" with loans that will take 2 or 3 generations to pay off but no bailout for them.
Meanwhile the Financial non regulator,the Governor of the Central Bank,Ahern,McCreevy a,Fingleton and Fitzpatrick (to name a few) can swan around on their money and to hell with the poor fools they landed in it. :(
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on December 14, 2009, 05:20:03 PM
Might not be popular but I agree with McWilliams. Revenge for cross-border shopping.

http://www.sbpost.ie/commentandanalysis/lets-grab-this-golden-chance-46188.html (http://www.sbpost.ie/commentandanalysis/lets-grab-this-golden-chance-46188.html)

Let's grab this golden chance
13 December 2009 By David McWilliams

If I had the ear of finance minister Brian Lenihan, I'd be telling him not to look a gift horse in the mouth. The British government has this week handed Ireland a gilt-edged opportunity to kick-start the battered IFSC and, with it, the fortunes of thousands of young Irish graduates and workers.

Last Wednesday, the British chancellor, yielding to popular pressure for revenge, announced he would tax the bonuses of high-flying investment bankers. He announced a 50 per cent tax on any bonus over £25,000.This, for most mere mortals, would seem nothing to grumble about until you see what the reality is for those bankers.

When you consider that for the 5,000-odd Goldman Sachs employees in London, the average pay - of which bonuses are the most significant proportion - is »500,000 a year, you can see how this 'super-tax' will make them nervous.

While it's easy to understand the British government's motives, particularly as the bankers are unrepentant about their role in last year's collapse of the global economy, the result is that these bankers will simply look to leave London.

These are the most footloose of all workers; their capital is their contact book and their bank's balance sheet their armoury. They will move to wherever the feel they can work and make money.

Whether you like them or not, these are an asset that many countries can ill-afford to ignore. That is why Luxembourg, Ireland, Dubai, Singapore and, of course, Switzerland have been trying to make sure that financial services are part of the country's industrial infrastructure.

The British government has given us an opportunity like the one presented to us when Intel, Microsoft and Pfizer were looking for a place to locate outside the United States in the 1990s.They chose Ireland for tax purposes and for the quality and availability of the workforce.

It was 'win-win' for us, as we had no real multinational industry so we got all the benefits; we got jobs we didn't have before, tax revenue we didn't have before, and spending we didn't have before.

Now, quite feasibly, we could do the same again, because investment bankers - the ones which drive the economy of London - are the targets of the Labour government. We could be their port in a storm.

The Minister for Finance should seize the opportunity and get on the phone to the head of Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan and tell them that Dublin welcomes them and is open for their business. God knows we need a bit of luck and now is our chance to grab it. But why would a big investment bank come here to Ireland? Apart from the fact that its senior employees were about to jump ship because of taxation, what other reasons could there be to come here?

First, in a 24-hour trading business, Ireland shares the same time zone as London and therefore acts as a platform to bridge the Asian markets, which open during our evening, and the American markets, which open during our afternoon.

Second, we have a huge oversupply of commercial office space in Dublin. Any incoming bank could get great property deals, which - among other things - could save us putting these properties into Nama. Equally, we have good links to Europe and the US. God knows Aer Lingus needs some regular business passengers. Ryanair would welcome the challenge too.

The IFSC has the technological infrastructure. The same language helps enormously for employees wanting to move here with the minimum of hassle. Third, the 12.5 per cent corporation tax is attractive for a large investment bank.

While our tax rates will rise this year and next, income tax in Britain before the 'bonus tax' for bankers will also be high. Fourth, Dublin and Ireland offers international investment bankers a good quality of life, good schools and a government that is not targeting them exclusively. Why wouldn't they move here?

Let's look at this from our side of the deal. For us, it looks like a 'win-win' outcome. Think about tax alone. In Britain, financial services companies constitute 25 per cent of total corporation tax. This is a figure of £11 billion.

This obviously doesn't include the huge amount of tax the employees of these companies pay in income tax, Vat and stamp duty.

For Ireland, even if we were to poach one of the giant investment banks, the contribution to our faltering tax revenue would be enormous. Equally, as we have seen with pharmaceuticals in Cork, once one big name comes to Ireland, others tend to follow. This is know as clustering in economics and it is easy to see how attracting a huge name like Goldman Sachs to Ireland could begin a process where others copy and move some, if not all, of their operation here.

When I worked in investment banking in London, in the 1990s,themajority of my colleagues were foreign. We worked with non-English clients and most of the deals we did were not in Britain but in Europe and further afield. London really only served to 'host' the industry.

Most people I worked with liked London, but if they felt the government there was out to get them they would have moved on just as easily to an adjacent English-speaking jurisdiction that was prepared to open its doors to them.

Even if we attracted 20 per cent of the business - about as much as we could manage now anyway - the positives would be enormous. Just think of the prospects of our own workers who are now waiting in our zombie banks for the horrible but inevitable chat with the boss. Because of the stupidity of their top brass, Irish banks expanded rapidly, fuelled only by an unsustainable increase in property. Now many thousands will be laid off as the banks contract.

Where are they going to go? Where are they going to use their skills, if not in new banks that might come into Ireland? This is the opportunity and the IFSC, with its new Luas link, provides a fantastic and obvious home for these highly-motivated foreign bankers. The more of them we have, the more they will need to employ local people with banking acumen. Off we would go on a virtuous circle. This is our chance to do what Brian Lenihan calls our ''patriotic duty''.

''England's difficulty, Ireland's opportunity'' - wasn't that what the forefathers of Fianna Fáil used to say?

After all, if the British government is prepared to entice our shoppers to Sainsburys in Newry, then we should be prepared to poach their bankers for the IFSC in Dublin.

David McWilliams's new book, Follow the Money, is out now
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: bcarrier on December 14, 2009, 05:33:44 PM
My reading of the UK banking supertax is that it is levied on the " bonus pool" and collected from the company. I dont know how it will be implemented but it would not surprise me if bonuses still get paid at original levels to the individuals with tax burden effectively being picdked up as additional corporation tax and therefore borne by shareholders . It would make it pretty circular for the banks with a large % of state ownership ( in particular RBS ). 

I am all for cutting taxes to increase tax take...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laffer_curve
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on December 18, 2009, 12:21:18 PM
Not much being said about this but the Irish banks have been on a major slide again recently.

Look at the last 3 months for AIB:

(http://mediacharting.digitallook.com/cgi-bin/digital/chart_image.cgi?finance_chart=1&co_dimension%5Ewidth=200&co_dimension%5Eheight=150&plot_colour=&chart_primary_ticker=ALBK&chart_time_period=3_month&tiny_chart=1&co_border%5Eset=-1&csi=10754&ie=1&chart_action-chart_draw)

And Bank of Ireland:

(http://mediacharting.digitallook.com/cgi-bin/digital/chart_image.cgi?finance_chart=1&co_dimension%5Ewidth=200&co_dimension%5Eheight=150&plot_colour=&chart_primary_ticker=BIR&chart_time_period=3_month&tiny_chart=1&co_border%5Eset=-1&csi=124076&ie=1&chart_action-chart_draw)

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Billys Boots on December 23, 2009, 10:28:45 AM
Did anyone notice that one of the lads who facilitated Ray Burke's rape of the people of Fingal is now on the board of Nama.  That plan has no chance of working now.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: INDIANA on December 23, 2009, 11:34:15 AM
Quote from: bcarrier on December 14, 2009, 05:33:44 PM
My reading of the UK banking supertax is that it is levied on the " bonus pool" and collected from the company. I dont know how it will be implemented but it would not surprise me if bonuses still get paid at original levels to the individuals with tax burden effectively being picdked up as additional corporation tax and therefore borne by shareholders . It would make it pretty circular for the banks with a large % of state ownership ( in particular RBS ). 

I am all for cutting taxes to increase tax take...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laffer_curve

Nope its Income Tax not Corp Tax. The British Govt wants the banks to rebuild their capital.Implementing a CT hit on this would negate that process. But its only a once off tax from what i know. It doesn't apply after one year. So I'm not sure there will be any real benefits
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Zapatista on December 27, 2009, 08:47:24 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Suxn3gbcF6A&feature=SeriesPlayList&p=186C1151D9444473
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on December 27, 2009, 02:23:25 PM
Quote from: muppet on December 18, 2009, 12:21:18 PM
Not much being said about this but the Irish banks have been on a major slide again recently.

Look at the last 3 months for AIB:

(http://mediacharting.digitallook.com/cgi-bin/digital/chart_image.cgi?finance_chart=1&co_dimension%5Ewidth=200&co_dimension%5Eheight=150&plot_colour=&chart_primary_ticker=ALBK&chart_time_period=3_month&tiny_chart=1&co_border%5Eset=-1&csi=10754&ie=1&chart_action-chart_draw)

And Bank of Ireland:

(http://mediacharting.digitallook.com/cgi-bin/digital/chart_image.cgi?finance_chart=1&co_dimension%5Ewidth=200&co_dimension%5Eheight=150&plot_colour=&chart_primary_ticker=BIR&chart_time_period=3_month&tiny_chart=1&co_border%5Eset=-1&csi=124076&ie=1&chart_action-chart_draw)

http://www.breakingnews.ie/business/eymhsngbsnid/ (http://www.breakingnews.ie/business/eymhsngbsnid/)

Report: Govt taking major stake in banks

27/12/2009 - 10:31:51

The Government is reportedly preparing to take a significant stake in both AIB and Bank of Ireland.

According to the Sunday Business Post, it will do this by converting some of it's preference shares in the banks into ordinary shares.

The move is expected in the New Year as part of a programme to recapitalise the two main banks.

Read more: http://www.breakingnews.ie/business/eymhsngbsnid/#ixzz0atnnq7AQ
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: INDIANA on December 27, 2009, 02:30:25 PM
should inspire international confidence anyway.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on December 27, 2009, 02:38:44 PM
Quote from: INDIANA on December 27, 2009, 02:30:25 PM
should inspire international confidence anyway.

This is beginning to look like the proverbial good money after bad. The problem with international markets is that the more the government own the less likely any investor is to come on board.

I think we are nationalising these banks as slowly as we possibly can when it was what we should have done right at the start of the crisis.

BTW one of these banks declined a credit card to some one I know recently. This individual earns a multiple of the minimum wage, has 5 years left on their mortgage (having never missed a payment) and has a clean credit history (doesn't even have a car loan). It could be an error but if not I wouldn't be hopeful for that bank's chances.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: INDIANA on December 27, 2009, 02:47:36 PM
I agree - we should have done this right at the beginning. But thats 3 banks now nationalised and any chance now of significant investment from other banks, private equity or venture capitalists has now gone really- certainly for the next 12 months. we're putting money into Anglo which has no chance of ever operating as a bank again. Should have closed it down. Complete waste of resources.

I'm not surprised on the credit card story- there are significant reposessions taking place in Dublin at present. Just ordinary Joe Soaps who are stretched completely. I think a lot of Irish Banks haven't a pot to piss in. One wonders just how much this going to cost the Irish taxpayer for the end.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on December 27, 2009, 03:05:10 PM
Quote from: INDIANA on December 27, 2009, 02:47:36 PM
I agree - we should have done this right at the beginning. But thats 3 banks now nationalised and any chance now of significant investment from other banks, private equity or venture capitalists has now gone really- certainly for the next 12 months. we're putting money into Anglo which has no chance of ever operating as a bank again. Should have closed it down. Complete waste of resources.

I'm not surprised on the credit card story- there are significant reposessions taking place in Dublin at present. Just ordinary Joe Soaps who are stretched completely. I think a lot of Irish Banks haven't a pot to piss in. One wonders just how much this going to cost the Irish taxpayer for the end.

That more than anything is the scary bit. We will spend a lot more on the banks next year than we saved in the budget. Don't get me wrong we need to save in the budget but it is very hard to persuade people to accept cuts when every penny is going to shore up banks that no one seems accountable for, who won't lend and who are actively evicting people.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: orangeman on December 29, 2009, 01:45:08 PM
Time for another amnesty ??? Or would the cupboard be bare ???? The Italians have done well with their latest amnesty.



Italian tax amnesty raises 95bn euros 

The amnesty provides Berlusconi's government with a 5bn euro windfall
Italy has raised 95bn euros (£86bn;$137bn) from a tax amnesty, much more than the government had expected.



According to the country's finance ministry, 98% of the illegally-held overseas money has been repatriated.

The amnesty caused a spat with Switzerland after Rome claimed the Swiss government was refusing to cooperate with the tax crackdown.

Switzerland then demanded that Italy explain why police and tax inspectors raided dozens of Swiss banks in Italy.

In Tuesday's statement the ministry said "the time of tax havens has finished forever. To place or keep money in tax havens is no longer convenient, neither in economic nor in tax terms. The returns are small, the risk is high."

The amnesty has now been extended until the end of April.

The move provided a boost for Italy's banking industry - with the money flowing into small and medium size banks.

The government will get a 5bn euro windfall from the amnesty. It will be spent helping to strengthen the economy, which came out of recession in the third quarter of this year.






Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Capt Pat on January 05, 2010, 08:37:33 PM
I see the president of Iceland has told the Brits and Dutch that they will not be paying the money back from the savings banks that went bankrupt.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8441312.stm

Now if the Irish government would just see sense and throw nama in the bin, let the banks go bankrupt and start again we wouldbe in great shape.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: no mo do yakamo on January 05, 2010, 08:40:47 PM
They're going to have a referendum and let the people decide.  We should go one better and have two. :P :P
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on January 06, 2010, 08:38:01 AM
McWilliams has a piece on the Iceland thing in today's Indo -

Yesterday the, largely ceremonial, president of Iceland stood up for what is right. He decided that it was not democratic for the Icelandic government to insist that the Icelandic people pay foreign depositors who deposited money in Icelandic banks that subsequently went bust.

The president refused to sign the parliament's bill, which would have penalised the Icelandic people for the mistakes of the executives of the Icelandic banks. He concluded that this was not reasonable as the banking mess was not the fault of the average Icelander. Iceland will have a referendum on the issue now.

This move implies that Iceland might jeopardise its access to IMF funds as well as definitely knock back its aspirations to join the EU.

The official line peddled by the international bureaucrats is that standing up for the small guy undermines Iceland's credibility. However, the president decided that if credibility in the eyes of the foreign investors comes via hoodwinking the average Icelandic citizen into footing the bill for a mistake the financial markets facilitated, then it was better to be not credible.

This type of credibility undermines democracy and the basic idea that the government represents the people. In so doing he has stood up for something which is now, sadly, profound and unusual in modern politics -- he is championing the interests of the small man in a small democracy.

At the press conference, President Olafur Grimsson referred to a petition which raised signatures from thousands of ordinary citizens who were set against bailing out the banks at the people's expense. The petitioners went on to argue that foreign depositors (mainly Dutch and British) took out deposits in Icelandic banks because the banks were offering interest rates that were much higher than in the UK or Holland. In economics the iron rule is, the higher the return offered, the higher the risk offered.

The Icelanders are simply saying that your investments have nothing to do with us and, therefore, the solution to the depositors' dilemma is not the immediate concern of the average cod fisherman from the Westman Island or any other part of Iceland for that matter.

In a country where the president occupies a similar position to our own, this was only the second time a president has ever declined to sign a parliamentary bill.

The Icelandic story is a mirror image of Ireland's. However, unlike the Irish case where the average person is being asked to pay the bondholders of the banks -- the creditors who speculated on such gems as Anglo Irish Bank -- the Icelanders are taking a different tack.

They have decided that the people -- not the elites or the "insiders" -- must decide. This country clearly is a proper democracy; not one run by politicians who are part of an insider group up to their teeth in property and who can't see that they represent the people, not the elite.

In its most simple terms, Iceland is a country with a banking system attached. In contrast, Ireland is a banking system with a country attached to it.

In the past five years, the Icelandic banks behaved precisely like our own. They lent to anyone and anything but, in the main, they lent to their mates. When they ran out of Icelandic deposits, they borrowed abroad to finance their expansion. They issued debts and when they could no longer issue enough debt, they took in deposits.

When the system crashed, the foreign depositors and the bondholders got caught. You can rightly ask what in God's name were English depositors doing putting their life savings into Icelandic banks that they had never heard of?

Now let us move to the ramifications of the Icelanders' democratic stance. Officials are aghast. According to the men who run the Department of Finance here, if we were to do something similar and negotiate a deal with our foreign bank creditors, Ireland would be declared a pariah. They claim interest rates would rocket and the world would shun us.

If their view is right, interest rates in Iceland should have jumped yesterday on the news of a referendum. But they didn't -- Icelandic interest rates hardly budged from their present 7pc.

By the way, when I was in Reykjavik last May interest rates stood at 15pc. Yes, they are high, but interest rates in Iceland are coming down in line with inflation, as any basic economic textbook would predict.

More significantly, long-term interest rates, which gauge the long-term risk in a country, have also fallen to 7pc in Iceland.

This means investors believe there is no real extra risk in Iceland in the future. My guess is that Iceland's credit rating will rise on this news, not fall.

The reason for this counterintuitive stance is the same reason John Maynard Keynes argued against reparations being imposed on Germany after the First World War. Keynes argued that if you impose the debts of a past regime on a new regime, the economy and politics will suffer.

In a similar vein, the Icelandic president has decided that it is unfair to lumber the average citizen with the sins of Iceland's financial generals. The specific case in Iceland involves one bust bank, but has ramifications for the whole country. Foreign depositors are owed €3.8bn by Icebank.

The EU stipulated that the average Icelandic citizen should pay €12,000 each to cover this. The EU and the IMF said further aid to Iceland is dependent on this deal. This president has stated that if the price of this EU and IMF help is penalising the citizen, then it is a price so high that it must be passed by referendum. In short, the outsiders (the citizens) should not be forced to bail out the insiders (the banks).

In their president, the outsiders in Iceland have a champion. Who champions the outsiders in Ireland? Who in our political class shouts stop, enough is enough? Who is prepared to say there is a difference between right and wrong?

Finally, who has the courage to point out that, in financial terms, far from being penalised, Iceland is being rewarded by gradually falling interest rates.

In Ireland we can't tell the difference between right and wrong, and worse still, we are not even getting the supposed financial bonanza for being "good boys" and siding with the international bankers. We are still paying nearly twice as much as Germany to borrow money.

Iceland is showing our politicians another way. These are not easy decisions -- and it would have been much better if the country had never got into this mess -- but at least they are dealing with it. Similarly, it would have been better if we never got into this mess too, but here we are.

Iceland proves that there is an alternative -- are any of our politicians, from the President down, prepared to listen?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Rossie11 on January 06, 2010, 02:25:12 PM
Just read that at lunchtime. Fair play to the Iceland Prez for showing a bit of backbone.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Hardy on January 06, 2010, 03:11:49 PM
McWilliams is spot-on, but what he fails to emphasise is that the Icelandic government only decided to act because of huge pressure and protests from the public.

What a contrast that is with the craven submission of the Irish people to the government's pickpocketing them to compensate and appease speculators, investors and foreign financial interests. I find it hard to believe that we haven't even raised a murmur about this. I've been saying for a long time that if it happened in France the majority of the population would be on the streets and the country brought to a halt until the decision was reversed. But I hardly expected it of Iceland.

Nobody considers the Icelanders the most hot-blooded or passionate of peoples, but even they have the balls to say "piss off - you're not robbing me and my descendants to pay speculators". We are the people who boast to the world that we were the first to overthrow imperialist domination, but it seems we haven't managed to shake off the subservient, forelock-tugging deference to authority that goes with 800 years of conditioning.

And the latest piece of news that had me spitting crumbs over the table was this: I read somewhere that, on average, US fraudsters like the Enron crew and Madoff are in jail within six months of discovery. Then, this morning, I heard the small passing reference on the radio that, 18 months on, Seán FitzPatrick hasn't even been interviewed in the much-touted Garda investigation of Anglo-Irish Bankrobbers.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Zapatista on January 06, 2010, 03:12:07 PM
Quote from: Declan on January 06, 2010, 08:38:01 AM
Iceland will have a referendum on the issue now.



I have little faith in this process.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on January 06, 2010, 03:38:28 PM
QuoteWe are the people who boast to the world that we were the first to overthrow imperialist domination, but it seems we haven't managed to shake off the subservient, forelock-tugging deference to authority that goes with 800 years of conditioning.

100% correct.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Main Street on January 06, 2010, 04:33:41 PM
Quote from: Declan on January 06, 2010, 08:38:01 AM
McWilliams has a piece on the Iceland thing in today's Indo -

Yesterday the, largely ceremonial, president of Iceland stood up for what is right. He decided that it was not democratic for the Icelandic government to insist that the Icelandic people pay foreign depositors who deposited money in Icelandic banks that subsequently went bust.

The president refused to sign the parliament's bill, which would have penalised the Icelandic people for the mistakes of the executives of the Icelandic banks. He concluded that this was not reasonable as the banking mess was not the fault of the average Icelander. Iceland will have a referendum on the issue now.

McWilliams has got it wrong or at least has not got it quite right.

The Iceland President has already signed a bill into law last autumn which sets out the terms of repaying the  Eur 5-6bn. That original bill is still law but the Brits and the Dutch rejected 2 of the the terms contained within it and wanted Iceland parliament to make 2 changes. Pretty much the Brits and the Dutch want to impose a settlement on their terms only and are able to use the blackmail of IMF loans.

This bill that the President rejected contained those  2 amendments to the original bill and were the 2 feathers to break the camels back so to say.
The majority of people accept that Iceland has to pay a relatively humongous amount to the Brits and the Dutch and the ire is just about the those 2 terms.

The rejected amendments
One, is that the Icelandic Gov  will give up their claimed right to take the whole deal to a neutral court of arbitration and all parties to abide by that courts decision. It appears the Brits and Dutch have some reservation about letting their imposed settlement go to a court of arbitration that is outside their control
And the other one is that Iceland will have to keep up payments after 2024, if the total amount has not been paid back.
The original bills calls for repayments be fixed at a certain % of the GDP but to cease after 2024 regardless of the amount left to pay on the principal




Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Main Street on January 06, 2010, 04:38:45 PM
Quote from: Hardy on January 06, 2010, 03:11:49 PM
McWilliams is spot-on, but what he fails to emphasise is that the Icelandic government only decided to act because of huge pressure and protests from the public.
You misread, the parliament passed the bill. It was the President who refused to sign it.
The President responded to public concern.
When he refuses to sign a bill passed in parliament then it must go to the people without delay.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on January 06, 2010, 04:46:30 PM
Quote from: Hardy on January 06, 2010, 03:11:49 PM
And the latest piece of news that had me spitting crumbs over the table was this: I read somewhere that, on average, US fraudsters like the Enron crew and Madoff are in jail within six months of discovery. Then, this morning, I heard the small passing reference on the radio that, 18 months on, Seán FitzPatrick hasn't even been interviewed in the much-touted Garda investigation of Anglo-Irish Bankrobbers.

Just finished Fintan O'Toole's book Ship of Fools.

It is an excellent piece of research and one of the days when I get time I will list the fraudsters and their offences, from his book, committed in Ireland over the last 40 years. Of them only Lawlor, Burke & Redmond  brieflywent to jail. One for contempt of count and the other two for corruption so outrageous even Ireland couldn't turn a blind eye.

Mark my words, if O'Toole's book is anything to go by, no banker will be convicted of anything let alone go to jail in this country. Only yesterday Brian Lenihan ruled out any inquiry suggesting now was not the time and when asked when was the time he said 'maybe 30 years'.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on January 06, 2010, 04:51:23 PM
Just finished it myself Muppet - Unbelievable stuff altogether. Should be mandatory reading for every second level student in CSPE class. At least then we may have some hope of a change in mindset in this country
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Hardy on January 06, 2010, 05:55:24 PM
Quote from: Main Street on January 06, 2010, 04:38:45 PM
Quote from: Hardy on January 06, 2010, 03:11:49 PM
McWilliams is spot-on, but what he fails to emphasise is that the Icelandic government only decided to act because of huge pressure and protests from the public.
You misread, the parliament passed the bill. It was the President who refused to sign it.
The President responded to public concern.
When he refuses to sign a bill passed in parliament then it must go to the people without delay.

Not so much misread, then as misreported to. Newsnight last night (my only source for this story) reported it more or less as I stated it - Icelandic people outraged at proposal to give taxpayers' money to foreign investors who lost money because of bankers' mistakes, protests in the streets, President takes note and refuses to sign.

Thanks for the correction.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: comethekingdom on January 07, 2010, 10:00:35 PM
Letter from today's Indo :

My dog sleeps about 20 hours a day. He has his food prepared for him.

He can eat whenever he wants and his meals are provided at no cost to him.

He visits the doctor once a year for his checkup, and again during the year if any medical needs arise. For this, he pays nothing and nothing is required of him.

He lives in a nice neighbourhood in a house that is much larger than he needs, but he is not required to do any upkeep.

If he makes a mess, someone else cleans it up. He has his choice of luxurious places to sleep. He is living like a king, and has absolutely no expenses whatsoever. All of his costs are picked up by others.

I was just thinking about all this, and suddenly it hit me like a brick in the head.

Holy Smoke! My dog is a banker!
:D :D :D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Capt Pat on January 07, 2010, 10:09:36 PM
Brilliant. Although I am not sure you are being a bit unfair to that dog who has no right of reply what so ever, I am sure he is very loyal.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on January 07, 2010, 10:16:48 PM
Quote from: Capt Pat on January 07, 2010, 10:09:36 PM
Brilliant. Although I am not sure you are being a bit unfair to that dog who has no right of reply what so ever, I am sure he is very loyal.

If the dog doesn't have a huge pension he is not a banker. Probably a Building Society operative.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on January 13, 2010, 09:40:00 AM
David McWilliams: We're being robbed by our supposed protectors

Wednesday January 13 2010

Our politicians are putting bondholders before the Irish people they are meant to represent

Go to any dole office in the country this week. Just have a look. You will see young people. Our fittest and best able have become the number one victims of the recession. Given that this recession was almost entirely based on home-grown economic mistakes, the real victims of the back-slapping Celtic Tiger years were the very people who were supposed to inherit it.

Youth unemployment in Ireland has risen 170pc in the past two years. There are more than 85,000 people under the age of 25 on the dole. These idle youngsters are the 'outsiders' who don't have a stake in the society, or who don't have the 'pull' to get a cushy gig during the slump.

Do you remember only a few years ago all the blather about how our young people and our superior demographics would ensure that Ireland achieved a soft landing? Do you remember government ministers urging people giddily to get "on the ladder"? Holding the ladder was usually a builder or auctioneer, who was making a fortune, and some bank manager who threw borrowed money at these first-time buyers like confetti.

The bank manager's Christmas bonus was based on how much money he stuffed into the pockets of the first-time buyer which went straight to the builder, who in many cases wrote cheques for cabinet ministers in corporate donations to a party the builders knew would support them all the way.

And who paid? Well, the young of course. They paid by buying over-expensive shoeboxes and they are paying even more via unemployment. This unemployment ensures that the demand for the extra thousands of shoeboxes that were built in the boom will not be there. Therefore, the negative equity many are suffering will simply get worse as house prices continue to plummet in 2010.

The boom years involved a massive transfer of wealth from the young to their parents' generation. This was the first transfer, which although disastrous for the young, had at least the benefit that the money was staying in the country as their parents' houses increased in value. But here is the snag. The money that was increasing the value of the parents' properties, increasing the debts of the young buyers and being skimmed off by the banker/developer cabal with the full support of the Government, wasn't our money. But whose money was it?

To find out, you have to look at the banks' balance sheets. Once you do this, it will dawn on you just how criminal the financial situation in Ireland really is -- because the bank bailouts ensure that even those young people who didn't believe the hype and didn't buy houses will pay for the housing slump by increases in taxation to pay foreign bondholders.

Let's examine how much money we are talking about. The two big banks in Ireland have deposits of €175bn. But against this deposit base they lent €376bn. They borrowed the difference between what they lent out and what they had on deposit. It's an enormous figure of close to €200bn -- or more than 150pc of our total GDP. If we take out shareholders' capital -- the amount shareholders own -- which is only about €17bn between the two, we are left with a huge figure, most of which is being financed on a weekly basis by the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB is protecting us from ourselves, but it is doing us no favours because the borrowed money has to be paid back and withdrawn from our economy.

This is where the young come in, because due to the Government's obsession with paying back all the speculators who took a punt on the Irish banking system, our politicians are putting bondholders before the Irish people who they are meant to represent.

When the guarantee was originally conceived, it was supposed to be temporary in order to avoid complete banking meltdown -- the Government would then call in the bondholders to negotiate a settlement. The final settlement between the banks and the bondholders brokered by the State should instead see the bondholders lose significantly -- as any investor would if he took imprudent decisions.

This is normal capitalist practice and is termed "co-responsibility", whereby the people who lent money to the banks are as responsible as the people who borrowed money from the banks. However, the Government has decided that the people who lent money to the banks bear no responsibility. So whatever they made in the boom they could keep and in the bust we, the people they lent to irrationally in the upswing, should pay them for all their troubles. How does that make you feel?

The 'insiders' within the system in Ireland decided that the young people of Ireland were less important than their bondholders. As a result, the Government has deemed that our workers will pay the bill. In short, we are in the process of being robbed by the people who are supposed to protect us.

The Government sees only two solutions to this banking disaster. One is the NAMA solution, which is based on a hope that the bad assets on the banks' balance sheets will turn good through another land boom. So not only will the banks get away with it, but another land boom will be stoked up by the same management who just got out of jail. As a result, the next generation of young workers will pay.

The second solution is that if there is no reflation of land prices, the banks' balance sheets will then have to be sorted out by writing off all the property loans and the bill is given to the taxpayer. Once again the young people of Ireland pay for the mistakes of the 'insiders'.

The figures are astounding for this catastrophe. In the extreme, if the loans didn't perform at all (which is unlikely) the taxpayer would have to pay. Every worker in this country would pay €94,736 just to bail out the two big banks.

We can't pay this. So we should stop the pretence and let the guarantee lapse as was originally envisaged. We should do a deal with the creditors, paying them back 10pc of their cash along the lines of normal capitalist business.

If we don't do a deal, the cost of bailing out the banks will be felt in every hospital and school in the country, for years. The choice is ours. Either we side with the people or the bondholders. Either we believe in "co-responsibility" or we give the bondholders a one-way bet.

Unless the Government comes to its senses, the cost of the mess it caused will be felt by the young of our country in higher unemployment. Could things be any clearer?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Fear ón Srath Bán on January 13, 2010, 10:36:46 AM
That's scary shit, really scary shit... It's an enormous figure of close to €200bn -- or more than 150pc of our total GDP

Not only is this (mis)government protecting the shareholders (FECKING SHAREHOLDERS!) at the expense of the ordinary tax paying joe, they're consigning a generation of youth to the employment scrapheap.

What a shower of incompetent and corrupt b*stards.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Hardy on January 13, 2010, 11:53:37 AM
Quote from: Fear ón Srath Bán on January 13, 2010, 10:36:46 AM
What a shower of incompetent and corrupt b*stards.

Indeed. Iceland is having a referendum on whether taxpayers should compensate UK and Dutch interests for loan defaults by Icelandic banks that were in no way owned by the Icelandic people. Guess how the people will vote!

Needless to say, we'd vote the same way if NAMA was put to a referendum. The government cannot claim to have a mandate to put tens of billioins of the  people's money at risk to save the assets of speculators. Where was that in the election manifesto?

How did I become part owner of the banks' deficit? I'm damn sure I wasn't invited to be part owner of their massive profits in the gravy train days. We deserve all the screwing we're going to get as a people if we let them do this to us.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Billys Boots on January 13, 2010, 12:34:52 PM
There's no point us complaining about this unless we're prepared to use the only effective recourse we have - our vote.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: thebigfella on January 13, 2010, 12:45:38 PM
Quote from: Billys Boots on January 13, 2010, 12:34:52 PM
There's no point us complaining about this unless we're prepared to use the only effective recourse we have - our vote.

Does anyone really give a fcuk? Seriously? I know I don't ::)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: lynchbhoy on January 13, 2010, 01:06:09 PM
Quote from: Billys Boots on January 13, 2010, 12:34:52 PM
There's no point us complaining about this unless we're prepared to use the only effective recourse we have - our vote.

which is what I'd do if say the labour party took it upon themselves to return back to being a labour party for the people and represent the people like the icelandic president is (now at least) doing.

I'd have no faith in fine gael, the other parties dont have enough power or support - so only Labour could fill this void imo.
We need a political alternative....
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on January 13, 2010, 03:41:23 PM
Quote from: Billys Boots on January 13, 2010, 12:34:52 PM
There's no point us complaining about this unless we're prepared to use the only effective recourse we have - our vote.

We could petition the President to exercise her veto.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Billys Boots on January 13, 2010, 04:22:15 PM
Quote from: muppet on January 13, 2010, 03:41:23 PM
Quote from: Billys Boots on January 13, 2010, 12:34:52 PM
There's no point us complaining about this unless we're prepared to use the only effective recourse we have - our vote.

We could petition the President to exercise her veto.

On behalf of an immature/indecisive electorate??
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on January 13, 2010, 05:01:56 PM
Quote from: Billys Boots on January 13, 2010, 04:22:15 PM
Quote from: muppet on January 13, 2010, 03:41:23 PM
Quote from: Billys Boots on January 13, 2010, 12:34:52 PM
There's no point us complaining about this unless we're prepared to use the only effective recourse we have - our vote.

We could petition the President to exercise her veto.

On behalf of an immature/indecisive electorate??

and..............maybe to force a referendum on NAMA.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: ludermor on January 13, 2010, 05:25:58 PM
Quote from: lynchbhoy on January 13, 2010, 01:06:09 PM
Quote from: Billys Boots on January 13, 2010, 12:34:52 PM
There's no point us complaining about this unless we're prepared to use the only effective recourse we have - our vote.

which is what I'd do if say the labour party took it upon themselves to return back to being a labour party for the people and represent the people like the icelandic president is (now at least) doing.

I'd have no faith in fine gael, the other parties dont have enough power or support - so only Labour could fill this void imo.
We need a political alternative....
There seems to be very mixed views from Iceland as to whether the President done the right thing or not. If they go for a referendum they are relying on lay people to make a very important economic decision, I'm not sure if i would be happy with that. I know its the basis of all referendums that the people vote but rightly or wrongly i would prefer the experts to make that decision ( i know i know... they got us into this mess etc etc)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: orangeman on January 13, 2010, 11:35:26 PM
Irish glass bottle site bought for € 420m - worth €60m today.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on January 14, 2010, 11:31:38 AM
Not strictly on topic but a little insight into how the people who matter view the rest of us

Top club operated under form of thieving -- judge
by Tim Healy

Thursday January 14 2010

EXCLUSIVE private members' club 'Residence' operated under "a form of thieving" in which employees' tax contributions were used to subsidise the business, a court heard yesterday.

Residence directors, the well-known restaurant owners Simon and Christian Stokes, are seeking a continuation of court protection because of its financial difficulties. Residence opened in May 2008 and is a favourite haunt of celebrities and Dublin socialites.

Mr Justice Peter Kelly said it was effectively subsidised by the "hard-pressed Irish taxpayer" through employees' tax deductions not been passed on to the Revenue Commissioners, who were owed €1.2m.

He said it was "a form of thieving" to use employees' money deducted for PAYE and PRSI contributions to subsidise a business.

The laws on examinership were not intended to provide "a form of absolution for recalcitrant directors", the judge added.

After being told by chartered accountant Paul Wyse that many companies were "regrettably" doing the same thing, the judge said the accountancy description of such tax money as "working capital" appeared "extraordinary" and gave "a form of respectability to money being improperly used" by a company. Mr Wyse agreed.

Earlier, counsel for the directors of Missford Ltd, the holding company for Residence, accepted they bore ultimate responsibility for the conduct of its business.

However, counsel said, they did not know the employee tax contributions had not been passed on to the Revenue until the Revenue itself initiated an audit after the company claimed a VAT refund. -  >:(
Saying the case raised "very serious" issues, Mr Justice Kelly postponed to next Wednesday a decision on whether to continue court protection for Missford, which employs 58 people.

The club has 1,450 members and its initial fees were €1,600 a year, plus a €250 joining fee.

Pending the court's decision, interim examiner Jim Stafford continues in place and the judge has also made orders for payment of wages. The application for protection was supported by all the creditors, including Zurich Bank -- owed more than €2.3m -- while the Revenue said it was "very guardedly neutral".

Rossa Fanning, for the bank, said Missford's directors had provided personal guarantees over loans and the bank also had charges over insurance policies.

Alison Keirse, for the Revenue, said it had "the gravest of concerns" about the ability of the management of Missford and had heard nothing in court to give it any comfort. There must be a change of management, she said. . Once again the people supposed to ne regulating this stuff show "concern". F**kers should in jail

Missford's directors had claimed the underpayments of tax were attributable to a previous financial controller, but the Revenue asserted the directors bore ultimate responsibility.

While a new financial controller had been put in place, the Revenue had difficulty seeing how the company could pay taxes as they fell due given it had never done so.

The Revenue was also concerned Missford had made no profit since it began operating in May 2008 and that the evidence to the court was all based on projections.

If court protection was granted, counsel said, the Revenue would expect the examiner to report back to the court within a very short time on his investigations into certain payments made about which the independent accountant had expressed concerns.

In seeking protection, Lyndon MacCann, for the company, said Mr Wyse, in his independent accountant's report, believed the company had a reasonable prospect of survival. . Unreal. Some bright spark. How do these guys get up in the morning and convince themselves the world is flat?

The club had gone against the industry trend by increasing its membership by 45pc to 1,450 in 2009 and there were no membership cancellations since the interim examiner was appointed. Both directors were also taking 33pc cent salary cuts, leaving them with salaries of €1,000 weekly in one case and €900 in the other.

Whatever "irregularities" predated this application could be dealt with in the scheme of arrangement, counsel added.

In evidence, Mr Wyse said the club was a "unique" venue, he believed the projected levels of growth were attainable and the business was viable. There were expressions of interest from four potential investors and some €1m in investment would be required, he said.

The court also heard Missford loaned €616,000 to related companies Mayfair Properties Ltd, which traded as Bang Cafe, and Auldcarn Ltd, a subsidiary of Mayfair, both of which were unable to repay the loan and were in liquidation.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: gerrykeegan on January 14, 2010, 11:59:48 AM
Declan

Where did you get that article from?

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Main Street on January 14, 2010, 12:48:19 PM
Quote from: ludermor on January 13, 2010, 05:25:58 PM
There seems to be very mixed views from Iceland as to whether the President done the right thing or not. If they go for a referendum they are relying on lay people to make a very important economic decision, I'm not sure if i would be happy with that. I know its the basis of all referendums that the people vote but rightly or wrongly i would prefer the experts to make that decision ( i know i know... they got us into this mess etc etc)

You prefer the experts to make the decisions to impose the burden of a bank failure on the citizens?
That sounds fair ::)
At the very least, there should be a general election on this most serious issue.

There is no if about it, the Icelanders are going to referendum.
The ref. question is, do you agree to reject the parliamentary bill or not. Some 60% now agree to reject.

As simply as I can explain.
The significant point missed by everyone, is that there is already a bill passed into law where the Iceland state has agreed to pay what is known as the Icesave debt.
The Brits and Dutch rejected 2 of the terms contained in that bill and that's why there was another amended bill put before parliament, hotly debated for months before being passed and subsequently not signed  by the President (meaning it's sent for referendum).
The original bill is still law. The amended bill contains two clauses, imposed by the Brits and the Dutch, are regarded as particularly pernicious.

There is a significant difference to this Icesave debt and for example Nama. The Icesave debt relates to deposit accounts in an Iceland bank, operating in the UK and Holland. Such liquid assets generated by that  bank were used to acquire and invest in things like High Street businesses, also West Ham fc :)
That bank collapsed and the EEA (European Economic Area) posthumously interpret a vaguely worded rule that the  Iceland state is responsible for the first 20k of each deposit account. That amounts to Eur 5.5bn,  about 60% of the Iceland GDP.
That Icesave debt comes on top of a domestic currency/economic collapse, not too dissimilar in nature to Ireland.

The President participated with those Iceland bankers, travelling in their private jet to England and gave sponsored after dinner talks to promote this bank.
He now says he was wrong, he admits that he was led up the garden path by these bankers. The referendum is seen by some as his attempt to restore his cred. He is an old socialist, has an enormous ego and an excellent command of Oxford English. He was interviewed by Paxman on the BBC the other day and managed to 'out ego' Paxman and talk him down.




Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Billys Boots on January 14, 2010, 01:03:06 PM
QuoteHe is an old socialist, has an enormous ego

I have to say my initial reaction to his referendum decision was that it was ambitious grandstanding.  I've yet to see anything that would convince me that it's not.

Michael Ring, eat your heart out.  ::)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on January 14, 2010, 01:35:01 PM
QuoteDeclan

Where did you get that article from?

Todays Indo Gerry - http://www.independent.ie/national-news/courts/top-club-operated-under-form-of-thieving--judge-2012904.html (http://www.independent.ie/national-news/courts/top-club-operated-under-form-of-thieving--judge-2012904.html)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: ludermor on January 14, 2010, 08:02:12 PM
Quote from: Main Street on January 14, 2010, 12:48:19 PM
Quote from: ludermor on January 13, 2010, 05:25:58 PM
There seems to be very mixed views from Iceland as to whether the President done the right thing or not. If they go for a referendum they are relying on lay people to make a very important economic decision, I'm not sure if i would be happy with that. I know its the basis of all referendums that the people vote but rightly or wrongly i would prefer the experts to make that decision ( i know i know... they got us into this mess etc etc)

You prefer the experts to make the decisions to impose the burden of a bank failure on the citizens?
That sounds fair ::)
At the very least, there should be a general election on this most serious issue.

There is no if about it, the Icelanders are going to referendum.
The ref. question is, do you agree to reject the parliamentary bill or not. Some 60% now agree to reject.

As simply as I can explain.
The significant point missed by everyone, is that there is already a bill passed into law where the Iceland state has agreed to pay what is known as the Icesave debt.
The Brits and Dutch rejected 2 of the terms contained in that bill and that's why there was another amended bill put before parliament, hotly debated for months before being passed and subsequently not signed  by the President (meaning it's sent for referendum).
The original bill is still law. The amended bill contains two clauses, imposed by the Brits and the Dutch, are regarded as particularly pernicious.

There is a significant difference to this Icesave debt and for example Nama. The Icesave debt relates to deposit accounts in an Iceland bank, operating in the UK and Holland. Such liquid assets generated by that  bank were used to acquire and invest in things like High Street businesses, also West Ham fc :)
That bank collapsed and the EEA (European Economic Area) posthumously interpret a vaguely worded rule that the  Iceland state is responsible for the first 20k of each deposit account. That amounts to Eur 5.5bn,  about 60% of the Iceland GDP.
That Icesave debt comes on top of a domestic currency/economic collapse, not too dissimilar in nature to Ireland.

The President participated with those Iceland bankers, travelling in their private jet to England and gave sponsored after dinner talks to promote this bank.
He now says he was wrong, he admits that he was led up the garden path by these bankers. The referendum is seen by some as his attempt to restore his cred. He is an old socialist, has an enormous ego and an excellent command of Oxford English. He was interviewed by Paxman on the BBC the other day and managed to 'out ego' Paxman and talk him down.
I dont know if its fair but what are the consequences of a no vote for them? Do the people who are voting know of this? If they are like ireland where lots of people are pissed off of course they will vote No, no matter what the consequences
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on January 15, 2010, 10:01:49 AM
State faces Catch 22 situation if Quinn seeks more taxpayers' money

By Matt Cooper

Friday, January 15, 2010

SEÁN QUINN has a brass neck. The businessman would be central to any public investigation into the banking crisis that has crippled the country, yet he regularly opines publicly on what government and citizens need to do to rescue the country from a situation which he was involved in creating.

Quinn's actions were a major contributor to the disaster at Anglo-Irish Bank. The circumstances in which his shareholding in the bank was reduced from 25% to 15% are the subject of an ongoing investigation by the Office of the Director of Corporate Enforcement and the gardaí (and have created hundreds of millions in euro of losses for the state because the 10 buyers of those shares borrowed the money from Anglo to buy them and cannot repay their debts to the now state-owned bank).

The manner in which Quinn secretly accrued the original shareholding – by gambling through a device called "contracts for difference" to avoid public scrutiny and apparently without the relevant permission from the Financial Regulator – created not only a major loss estimated at about €1 billion for him but contributed to the destabilising of the Anglo share price. Loans that his business empire received from Anglo at the same time as he was trying to arrange payment for those shares must also face legal independent scrutiny.

Quinn was the subject of the biggest ever fine levied by the financial regulator – €200,000 personally and €3.25m for his company – for the inappropriate way he used funds belonging to Quinn Insurance for the gambling on Anglo shares.

Quinn took a loan from Quinn Insurance reserves to use for gambling on Anglo shares. The money was later repaid, but it was a highly risky transaction undertaken without the relevant authorisation from the regulator. He was required by the authorities to step down as a director of the insurance company as part of his negotiated admonishment.

It is a long list of dreadful and calamitous mistakes, yet Quinn is indulged by sections of the media whenever he wants to hold forth. In the summer of 2008 he was part of an extraordinary series of first-person pieces published on the opinion pages of the Irish Times that told the Government how to solve the unfolding crisis. Quinn made reference to "losses" on the stock market as if they were significant to nobody but himself. The full reality of his situation – and the details of his censure by the Financial Regulator – emerged only later, but it was worth remembering that in that missive he lectured government on how to make Ireland more competitive. He was at it again last weekend when the Sunday Independent carried another personal missive from Quinn. There was little incorrect, per se, with what he said: few would disagree that the level of unemployment now, particularly in the under-25 age bracket, is deeply worrying. "It should be a priority at national level to develop plans and initiatives that can stem this draining of the future lifeblood of our economy and our society," he said.

But it is difficult for the state to take the actions Quinn suggests when it has to invest billions in the rescue of the banks, particularly the self-same Anglo in which Quinn was a major player.

Quinn never misses an opportunity to champion the achievements of his company and its 5,500-strong Irish workforce and it would be churlish not to acknowledge that he has built something big, international and profitable.

Still, you have to be a little suspicious when, having lauded the benefits to Ireland of multinational investment, Quinn advises that "we must, however, become more successful in encouraging home-grown entrepreneurs to develop local manufacturing businesses and support local employment ... Policymakers should focus on investment for the creation of sustainable jobs and mechanisms need to be found to provide capital and support to budding entrepreneurs".

I wonder if that is code for Quinn seeking some form of financial assistance for his own plans in the Republic?

Quinn has received massive grant assistance for the construction of major manufacturing facilities in England and Germany in recent years. Publicity about his losses at Anglo must have been noticed by other international banks. Maybe Quinn is looking to Ireland for his next phase of investment, but can he raise the required finance?

Any offers to invest in Ireland – particularly in the green technology he promoted in the article – are likely to attract government interest. But should Quinn get more state money, either by way of grants or more loans from the state-owned Anglo Irish Bank to which he already owes so much?

The state is in something of a Catch 22 position. It wouldn't surprise me if the state decided it needed to help him in the hope that he can create a few jobs or felt it had to assist him in earning more profits to repay his debts.

In late 2008, just weeks after the introduction of the government guarantee to rescue the banks and the revelation of the fines against Quinn and his company, the hapless Minister for Trade, Enterprise and Employment, Mary Coughlan, travelled to Cork where Quinn Direct was opening a new office. She congratulated Quinn Direct for its "continued success and, most importantly, for their investment in Ireland in these difficult times". She would have been better advised to stay at home. Even if she was unconcerned or ignorant about Quinn's deep involvement in the Anglo debacle – which even at that stage she should have known because most of it was in the public domain – she should have been briefed, for example, about Quinn's closure of the Barlo radiator plant in Clonmel shortly after he had bought it and the transfer of production to Wales.

IT is a very different picture from those TV advertisements extolling the self-proclaimed virtues of the Quinn group that regularly appear on television. Quinn is spending a lot on its image these days, including its sponsorship of the Late Late Show.

Yet the state does not want Quinn to fail. It employs too many people in Ireland, particularly in border regions where replacement jobs would be hard to provide. The state needs Quinn to prosper so it can earn the money to make the repayments on its loans to Anglo. The state, as owner of Anglo, holds a mortgage over practically all of Quinn's businesses, but does it really want to own them?

Before Christmas it was revealed that Seán Quinn's five children shared a €200 million payment from the main Quinn holding group in 2008. A spokesman for the company at the time said the payment to Colette, Seán Jr, Ciara, Aoife and Brenda was made "to facilitate the development of their independent wealth portfolios". Lucky them. At least some young people are not going to have to worry too much about the scourge of unemployment.

But this raises questions as to why Quinn did not repay some of its borrowings to the state instead of moving its money out of the group to Quinn's children. I'd imagine Quinn is fairly confident nobody in authority is going to press too hard for answers to that.

Read more: http://www.examiner.ie/opinion/columnists/matt-cooper/state-faces-catch-22-situation-if-quinn-seeks-more-taxpayers-money-109689.html#ixzz0cfq3tNFk
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: boojangles on January 15, 2010, 10:56:07 AM
Matt doesn't explain too well exactly what wrong Sean Quinn is supposed to have done in relation to Anglo. Surely a man of his wealth can pay back whatever is owed to Anglo Irish?? Did he not take most of the hit himself in losing 1 Billion? Again it begs the question,why the f**k was or is Anglo Irish being allowed to survive?
I get it hard to say a bad word about Sean Quinn considering what he has done for employment in Cavan town and the border region.I have met the man a few times and he was always a down to earth man who seemed to stay true to where he came from. Maybe I am wrong but I sincerely doubt that Sean Quinn will be looking for money of the Irish taxpayer.If he is then I feel we are all fucked.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on January 15, 2010, 03:33:01 PM
Quote from: boojangles on January 15, 2010, 10:56:07 AM
Matt doesn't explain too well exactly what wrong Sean Quinn is supposed to have done in relation to Anglo. Surely a man of his wealth can pay back whatever is owed to Anglo Irish?? Did he not take most of the hit himself in losing 1 Billion? Again it begs the question,why the f**k was or is Anglo Irish being allowed to survive?
I get it hard to say a bad word about Sean Quinn considering what he has done for employment in Cavan town and the border region.I have met the man a few times and he was always a down to earth man who seemed to stay true to where he came from. Maybe I am wrong but I sincerely doubt that Sean Quinn will be looking for money of the Irish taxpayer.If he is then I feel we are all fucked.

Boojangles, Quinns Contract For Difference on 25% of Anglo is possibly the greatest single calamity in the Irish Banking collapse. The taxpayer has had to pick up almost all of the tab for the Golden 10 who bought the 10% when he switched the CFD for 25% to take shares amounting to 15%. This event undoubted accelerated Anglo's demise from being a stable bank, which we now know was something of an illusion but at the time all seemed ok (otherwise Quinn wouldn't have touched it).

There is no suggestion that Quinn has done anything legally wrong in the above transaction so he won't be sweating on the investigation, unlike some of the Anglo executives, but while he may just have been one single domino in the Irish Banks collapse, it was the 1st big one.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: armaghniac on January 15, 2010, 05:56:10 PM
QuoteMaybe I am wrong but I sincerely doubt that Sean Quinn will be looking for money of the Irish taxpayer.

He won't be looking for money from the Irish taxpayer. But neither will the taxpayer be looking for money from him, although his speculations have contributed greatly to the ruin of the State.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on January 19, 2010, 08:00:31 AM
Inquiry must look at role of politics

An independent banking inquiry must examine the links between bankers, developers and Fianna Fáil, writes FINTAN O'TOOLE

PARANOIA IS generally the most sane response to anything our rulers do. So, after all the leaks about the Government's intentions to hold a banking inquiry in secret, my immediate reaction is to demand a public parliamentary inquiry. Thinking more coldly about it, however, I reluctantly concluded that such an inquiry would be essentially useless.

Before deciding what form an inquiry should take, we must define what exactly we need to know. The known unknown in this case is not really what the banks did or why. We know that they threw money around with more abandon than a fleetful of intoxicated mariners. The bonus culture incentivised executives to think only about apparent end-of-year profits. They got away with this internally because of a complete absence of ethical qualms and because of the cronyism that is so well described in Shane Ross's book, The Bankers. It would be interesting to have more detail on how all of this unfolded but I can't imagine an inquiry substantially altering these broad conclusions.

What really needs to be investigated, therefore, is not the banks themselves. It is the triangular relationship between the banks, the property developers and Fianna Fáil. This is the Bermuda Triangle into which the Irish economic miracle disappeared without trace. It is this set of relationships that accounts for the nature, not merely of the crash, but of the continuing political response to it.

We know the consequences of this toxic nexus of mutual aggrandisement well enough, since we are living with them every day. But we don't know nearly enough about the ways in which it operated and continues to operate. A blow-by-blow account of the connections, the lobbying, the blind eyes, the nods and the winks would be immensely valuable. It would answer questions that go to the heart of the culture that both created the disaster in the first place and is likely to recreate it through Nama.

How much money, for example, did builders, developers and bankers give Fianna Fáil? Elaine Byrne's very valuable study showed that 40 per cent of disclosed donations to Fianna Fáil between 1997 and 2007 came from the construction and development sector. But most donations are not disclosed. The Standards in Public Office Commission has pointed out that it cannot account for €10 million of the €11 million parties spent on the last general election. An inquiry with the power to reveal the details of donations made by builders, property developers and banks would thus serve a very useful function.

The inquiry should also look at the history of lobbying, both formal and informal. Why, for example, did Brian Cowen as minister for finance override proposals by the Revenue to tax contracts for difference, a measure that would have curbed casino capitalism and in particular Sean Quinn's disastrous adventures in Anglo Irish Bank, for which the public is currently paying?

A full and detailed account of lobbying by developers and bankers and the responses of ministers would be well worth having.

And what precisely was the relationship between government and the financial regulator on the one side and between the regulator and the banks on the other? Why did the Department of Finance, again under Brian Cowen, do nothing at all about the explosion of major international frauds emanating from the International Financial Services Centre in Dublin? What was the effect of the merry-go-round in which retired regulators moved on to bank boards? Why was there virtual impunity for high-level financial crimes?

And what, exactly, was the nature of the relationship between developers and bankers? The developer Mick Wallace, for example, has spoken publicly of being told by a bank that he would get a loan for a project only if he used a particular builder favoured by the bank. Other developers, particularly those with nothing left to lose, may have interesting stories to tell.

These are the kinds of questions that really need to be answered if we are to understand – and ultimately to receive accountability for – what is happening to us. And we'd be as well off asking Jedward to conduct this inquiry as giving the task to a Dáil committee. The reason for this is simple – the issues are utterly and inescapably political. What we need is not the political system sitting in judgment on the bankers but an independent body scrutinising the central role of the political system itself. A Dáil committee cannot do this. Even the rightly lauded Dirt inquiry report, which is very good on the banks, is very weak on the political aspect of that scandal.

An independent inquiry could be chaired, for example, by Justin O'Brien, professor of corporate governance in Queensland, who has international standing, knows Irish banking intimately and called the crisis before it happened. Bo Lundgren, who handled the Swedish banking crisis of the 1990s and Elaine Byrne would complete a team with a real chance of telling us the truth.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on January 19, 2010, 03:03:41 PM
Quote from: Declan on January 19, 2010, 08:00:31 AM
Inquiry must look at role of politics

An independent banking inquiry must examine the links between bankers, developers and Fianna Fáil, writes FINTAN O'TOOLE

PARANOIA IS generally the most sane response to anything our rulers do. So, after all the leaks about the Government's intentions to hold a banking inquiry in secret, my immediate reaction is to demand a public parliamentary inquiry. Thinking more coldly about it, however, I reluctantly concluded that such an inquiry would be essentially useless.

Before deciding what form an inquiry should take, we must define what exactly we need to know. The known unknown in this case is not really what the banks did or why. We know that they threw money around with more abandon than a fleetful of intoxicated mariners. The bonus culture incentivised executives to think only about apparent end-of-year profits. They got away with this internally because of a complete absence of ethical qualms and because of the cronyism that is so well described in Shane Ross's book, The Bankers. It would be interesting to have more detail on how all of this unfolded but I can't imagine an inquiry substantially altering these broad conclusions.

What really needs to be investigated, therefore, is not the banks themselves. It is the triangular relationship between the banks, the property developers and Fianna Fáil. This is the Bermuda Triangle into which the Irish economic miracle disappeared without trace. It is this set of relationships that accounts for the nature, not merely of the crash, but of the continuing political response to it.

We know the consequences of this toxic nexus of mutual aggrandisement well enough, since we are living with them every day. But we don't know nearly enough about the ways in which it operated and continues to operate. A blow-by-blow account of the connections, the lobbying, the blind eyes, the nods and the winks would be immensely valuable. It would answer questions that go to the heart of the culture that both created the disaster in the first place and is likely to recreate it through Nama.

How much money, for example, did builders, developers and bankers give Fianna Fáil? Elaine Byrne's very valuable study showed that 40 per cent of disclosed donations to Fianna Fáil between 1997 and 2007 came from the construction and development sector. But most donations are not disclosed. The Standards in Public Office Commission has pointed out that it cannot account for €10 million of the €11 million parties spent on the last general election. An inquiry with the power to reveal the details of donations made by builders, property developers and banks would thus serve a very useful function.

The inquiry should also look at the history of lobbying, both formal and informal. Why, for example, did Brian Cowen as minister for finance override proposals by the Revenue to tax contracts for difference, a measure that would have curbed casino capitalism and in particular Sean Quinn's disastrous adventures in Anglo Irish Bank, for which the public is currently paying?

A full and detailed account of lobbying by developers and bankers and the responses of ministers would be well worth having.

And what precisely was the relationship between government and the financial regulator on the one side and between the regulator and the banks on the other? Why did the Department of Finance, again under Brian Cowen, do nothing at all about the explosion of major international frauds emanating from the International Financial Services Centre in Dublin? What was the effect of the merry-go-round in which retired regulators moved on to bank boards? Why was there virtual impunity for high-level financial crimes?

And what, exactly, was the nature of the relationship between developers and bankers? The developer Mick Wallace, for example, has spoken publicly of being told by a bank that he would get a loan for a project only if he used a particular builder favoured by the bank. Other developers, particularly those with nothing left to lose, may have interesting stories to tell.

These are the kinds of questions that really need to be answered if we are to understand – and ultimately to receive accountability for – what is happening to us. And we'd be as well off asking Jedward to conduct this inquiry as giving the task to a Dáil committee. The reason for this is simple – the issues are utterly and inescapably political. What we need is not the political system sitting in judgment on the bankers but an independent body scrutinising the central role of the political system itself. A Dáil committee cannot do this. Even the rightly lauded Dirt inquiry report, which is very good on the banks, is very weak on the political aspect of that scandal.

An independent inquiry could be chaired, for example, by Justin O'Brien, professor of corporate governance in Queensland, who has international standing, knows Irish banking intimately and called the crisis before it happened. Bo Lundgren, who handled the Swedish banking crisis of the 1990s and Elaine Byrne would complete a team with a real chance of telling us the truth.

While he is absolutely correct the reality is the same Jedwards govern. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Rossfan on January 19, 2010, 06:35:29 PM
Cowen has announced a secret enquiry .
Another kick in the teeth for the Greens as Gormless/Ryan and Sargent serve out the required time  to qualify for Ministerial Pensions.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: thejuice on January 19, 2010, 11:08:19 PM
Quote from: orangeman on January 13, 2010, 11:35:26 PM
Irish glass bottle site bought for € 420m - worth €60m today.

I guess they haven't built those appartments on it yet? They submitted planning for that around 2004-2005. I was doing a bit of coursework around there and was looking at the EIA for that development.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: ludermor on January 19, 2010, 11:22:13 PM
Quote from: thejuice on January 19, 2010, 11:08:19 PM
Quote from: orangeman on January 13, 2010, 11:35:26 PM
Irish glass bottle site bought for € 420m - worth €60m today.

I guess they haven't built those appartments on it yet? They submitted planning for that around 2004-2005. I was doing a bit of coursework around there and was looking at the EIA for that development.
The site is seriously contaminated and would cost as least 10million to remediate it. I am working on a job pretty close to it and it a fortune to ship off the excavated soil to germany. Apparently they didnt think it was as bad but the fact the DDDA were involved makes that highly unlikey. They are the biggest shower of crooks about the place (saying something i know!!)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on January 22, 2010, 11:38:40 AM

Developers' tax rate cost Exchequer €800m
listen Friday, 22 January 2010 10:25

Figures reveal a special lower rate of tax available to property developers cost the Exchequer €800m.

The tax rate was introduced to free up land for development in 2000 and was scrapped in January 2009.

When land is sold for development purposes it is liable for income tax, but not capital gains tax.
Advertisement

Figures from the Revenue Commissioners show the tax was used in 10,000 cases between 2000 and 2007.

Accountancy experts estimate the cost to the Exchequer was €800m over that period.

The so-called 'Special Incentive Tax Rate' was introduced to encourage the release of land for residential development.

The special incentive rate was 20%, as opposed to the higher rate of tax of 42% which was later reduced to 41%.

The incentive meant that money from the sale of land was not liable to the health levy or PRSI.

The amount of revenue forgone by the Exchequer is significant considering urban and rural renewal tax incentives, which attracted considerable criticism, cost the taxman €2bn.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: lynchbhoy on January 22, 2010, 02:43:24 PM
while that is a loss in tax revenue, the reason why this measure was brought in was because of spiralling land costs and the eventual impasse on selling/purchasing when people were crying out for development land (mostly Dublin I gather).
While 800m may have been lost, there was over 5 billion raised in taxes from these sales.
If this as I have been told, then I would look at the loss as a 'discount' to kick start business.
therefore I dont see a problem with the 800m loss.
I'd be more inclined o look for money from the banks for the pleasure of the guarantee....say 500 million a year...
(between them)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Main Street on January 22, 2010, 05:53:21 PM
Quote from: ludermor on January 14, 2010, 08:02:12 PM
I dont know if its fair but what are the consequences of a no vote for them? Do the people who are voting know of this? If they are like ireland where lots of people are pissed off of course they will vote No, no matter what the consequences

About the referendum in Iceland

what are the consequences of a no vote for them?


Voting to reject the bill,
means it will be back to the discussion board to negotiate  with the UK and the Dutch the remaining 2 sticking points.
Also means that all IMF and other loans will be shelved until an agreement is agreed between the UK, Netherlands and Iceland.
Failure to reach such an agreement means sovereign default in weeks or months.


"Do the people who are voting know of this?"

I'd imagine the debate of the issues is in the public domain.
Whether a voter at any time has a minimum rational grasp of the issues  to make an educated guess at the polling booth, in spite of an avalanche of agenda driven uninformed and biased comment, is another discussion.

" If they are like ireland where lots of people are pissed off of course they will vote No, no matter what the consequences"

I'd imagine the people have good reasons to be pissed off at this stage,  the massive debts of a bank, which collapsed  on foreign soil, that debt imposed on top of a bankrupt economy & currency and then to be well and truly buggered by the terms of that bank debt settlement. All of this supported by the ideologues and politicians who got the country in to the mess in the first place and who now ask the voter to be very aware of the consequences of rejecting the bill.

There is nothing more to lose by rejecting the bill and renogiationing the two punitive terms,
1. gaining  access to the full amount of the assets of the collapsed Bank would reduce Iceland's liability by about Eur2bn
2. relates to extra punitive interest, adding Eur 1.5bn on top of the Eur 5bn

Sovereign default in 5 years time is inevitable should they vote to accept the bill as it stands now.



Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Premier Emperor on January 22, 2010, 07:19:34 PM
Quote from: ludermor on January 19, 2010, 11:22:13 PM
Quote from: thejuice on January 19, 2010, 11:08:19 PM
Quote from: orangeman on January 13, 2010, 11:35:26 PM
Irish glass bottle site bought for € 420m - worth €60m today.

I guess they haven't built those appartments on it yet? They submitted planning for that around 2004-2005. I was doing a bit of coursework around there and was looking at the EIA for that development.
The site is seriously contaminated and would cost as least 10million to remediate it.
How does making bottles contaminate a site?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: ludermor on January 22, 2010, 07:22:12 PM
Do you think they were making bottles there forever?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on January 31, 2010, 07:04:41 PM
Gene Kerrigan: Banking witch hunt? Not on our watch

The Government says it wants answers, but it's doing its very best not to find them


Sunday January 31 2010

Here's an exclusive: the Soapbox Special Investigation Unit has managed to acquire a copy of the final report of the commission of investigation into the banking collapse. You might quibble that the bank inquiry has yet to begin its work -- oh, don't be so negative. Cutting-edge journalists never allow a technicality to get in the way of a good story.

In short, as is sometimes the case in the more funky branches of journalism, let's just make it up.

No need to wait six months or a year (or two years) while the important parts of the inquiry continue behind closed doors.

The chances are that the findings of the report of the commission of inquiry (Soapbox version) will be pretty close to the findings of the real one (except it will cost a lot less).

Let's cut to the chase. How, I hear you ask, does the commission of inquiry's report explain the systemic collapse of the banks?

We can reveal that the final report will say approximately the following: "Ah, you know, it's true that things got a little bit out of hand with the reckless lending, but everyone meant well, didn't they?"

And what will the commission conclude about the bankers? "Ah, sure there's nothing to be gained from playing the blame game, is there?"

Well done. Already, I can hear the reliable media glove puppets passing on the message that the glitches in the system have been identified and patched up. Move on, folks, nothing to see here.

What does the commission of inquiry have to say about renowned chancer Sean FitzPatrick, gobshite-in-chief at Anglo Irish Bank? The report's hard-hitting conclusion is blunt: "We might almost go so far as to say that Mr FitzPatrick's reach exceeded his grasp."

And the golden circle developers? "Misled by a mixture of entrepreneurial flair and a regrettable neglect of caution, they failed to appreciate the dangers."

What about the Financial Regulator, who seemed to fall asleep halfway up the collective backside of the bankers? Here, the commission of inquiry takes no prisoners: "Things might have gone slightly better," the report concludes, had the regulators "been even more diligent than they undoubtedly intended".

The first serious move for an inquiry came on December 15, when Prof Patrick Honohan suggested it was necessary. Honohan is an expert on banking crises, and he now heads the Central Bank. He seems genuinely puzzled by aspects of the crisis and wants an inquiry that will examine certain "processes" and "structures". He wants this carried out by those with "expertise and broad social scientific understanding", rather than mere "forensic skills".

In short, a highly technical inquiry aimed at patching up glitches in the system. Fine, as far as it goes. Prof Honohan is a banking technician -- he genuinely isn't interested in finger-pointing.

We're all in favour of something called "accountability".

We demand that people "accept responsibility" for their actions. But this concept has limited application.

If a supermarket checkout is short of money, the worker at the register is suspect until proven innocent. If a couple of electronics factory workers put a bulky parcel into the boot of their car the security people will search the car before it leaves the premises. If I'm on the dole and I buy a new Lexus someone will shop me to the Revenue.

In real life, these are known as checks and balances. Accountability. Transparency. All that good stuff. What is it called when applied to bankers, developers, politicians (and others paid stratospheric amounts of money to do their jobs)? It's called a "witch hunt". Also known as the "blame game". All that bad stuff.

Six days after Prof Honohan suggested a highly technical inquiry, another establishment heavyweight tweaked the proposal. Colm McCarthy, the Government's provider of a menu of savage cuts, said an inquiry was needed. Why? Tell us, Colm. "The absence of a factual public narrative on the banking collapse is damaging the credibility of the fiscal adjustment programme." Ah. Colm, what poetry! "Fiscal adjustment programme." It makes the heart sing. Let's translate. A "factual public narrative" is -- what? Well, a narrative is a story. So, we need a story, drawn from facts, that will satisfy public curiosity.

Why? Because the absence of a narrative undermines the "fiscal adjustment programme". What Colm sees as a "fiscal adjustment programme" includes what the rest of us see as savaged public services, attacks on the middle classes, the poorly paid, the weak, the disabled, the unemployed.

So, unless we get a story on why the banks collapsed, the skulls will get bolshie about having their jobs sacrificed and their wages slashed. They'll get angry about attacks on the blind. The "fiscal adjustment" will take three or four years, Colm says, "and it needs public acceptance".

Colm was concerned to maintain the focus of the inquiry: "The Department of Finance and the former finance ministers ought not be in the firing line," he urged (his emphasis).

So, the regulators, auditors and bank managements should be probed, but not the top civil servants at the Department of Finance or the politicians -- the people who set the policy.

Fianna Fail simply didn't want any inquiry. But to deny Honohan and McCarthy would be embarrassing and dangerous. The Greens huffed and puffed about transparency and were told to shut up and sit down.

The latest plan goes like this: get some credible but reliable folks to "scope" the banking scene and provide technical material from which a commission of inquiry can rustle up a report -- taking everything behind closed doors when necessary.

The very thought of a public inquiry made the Opposition parties salivate. Whoopee, a public grilling of Government politicians in the run-up to an election! When the public aspect was limited, they briefly threw a tantrum, as did the media, which saw juicy headlines being smothered.

The inquiry is now as much a part of the establishment's plan as, well, picking the pockets of the blind. Fix things up without changing them. Preserve the inequalities. Protect the core of the extremely high pay of politicians, bankers and senior civil servants, while screwing the vulnerable.

Extraordinary levels of wealth and income are to remain barely touched, while real, lasting, humiliating damage is done to the lives of those who weren't part of the gambling game.

Meanwhile, there will be a limited story prepared to palm off dissidents. "The expert independent inquiry has established . . ."

No inquiry into relationships within the golden circles, no inquiry into the funding of politicians (only about 10 per cent of the amount spent by the parties is accounted for). No curiosity, even, about the role the media played in inflating the credit bubble.

What about the law? What about the cops? Well, the trouble is, most of what happened was legal. Sneaky, greedy, ruthless, rapacious, immoral perhaps -- but legal. Because the laws were written by -- who?

Great little nation. Steady as she goes.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on February 03, 2010, 03:51:39 PM
http://www.rte.ie/business/2010/0203/banks.html (http://www.rte.ie/business/2010/0203/banks.html)

NAMA making good progress - Lenihan
Wednesday, 3 February 2010 15:46
The National Asset Management Agency is making good progress with its work, Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said in the Dáil today.

'The NAMA process for the valuation and transfer of loans is well under way,' Mr Lenihan said in response to a question.

Media reports have said the scheme faced further delays as European Union approval was not expected until the end of February at the earliest.

Earlier, the finance spokespersons from the two main opposition parties criticised the decision for the delegation of some duties from the Department of Finance to the National Treasury Management Agency.

Today in the Dáil, Fine Gael's Richard Bruton said it was a 'bridge too far', while Labour's Joan Burton said most banking responsibilities will now fall into the NTMA.

Both pointed out that the agency is also out of the scope of Freedom of Information requests.


No transparency = no accountability
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on February 04, 2010, 08:34:39 AM
David McWilliams: We're all fools if we think recovery plan is patriotic

Wednesday February 03 2010

It's been nearly 18 months since the Government announced its bank guarantee. Anglo Irish Bank was nationalised over a year ago and it is coming up to a year since the Government first mooted the NAMA plan. Yet nothing has actually been done since then. Not a single loan has been transferred to NAMA. There has been lots of talk, lots of bluster and point scoring, but still credit in the economy contracts, house prices continue their slow strangling decline and, most significantly, the rest of the world has moved on.

Why the delay? One interpretation is that our government doesn't understand that speed is crucial. If we compare our stagnation with other countries that have been faced with national bankruptcy, we compare dreadfully.

Look at what the Swedes achieved in their crisis of 1993 when their property market collapsed along with their banks. In the four months between November 1993 and February 1994 Sweden issued a bank guarantee, set up and transferred all the bad loans to a bad bank, committed state money only after all the private money had been wiped out, let some weak banks go bust, nationalised some big ones and devalued their currency by 40pc!

Sweden took all these decisions quickly in order to save the economy. The financial markets saw that the country was serious about sorting itself out and money cascaded back into Sweden. In a short time the Swedish crisis was over and the casualties were those who caused the problem -- the banks and the big landowners. The devaluation allowed industry to recover quickly by becoming hyper-competitive.

So, is the reason for our inactivity the Government's failure to understand that speed and significant policy change are crucial to getting out of the mire quickly? Or is it that they understand this perfectly, but also cynically understand that if they can brazen it out for another two years they might just be able to run an election campaign on the fallacious myth of taking "hard" decisions?

By adopting the latter tactic, the Government can divide the country between the "insiders" and the "outsiders".

The insiders are those who have a stake in the society and, therefore, will support a government that is taking decisions that protect their dwindling stake. The insiders prefer the certainty of a tarnished status quo to risking the unknown of a rejuvenated country.

The outsiders are those with no stake in the society, who therefore have most interest in fundamental change. During the boom, some outsiders got inside the tent for a few years, but now they are back outside, in negative equity. They are likely to emigrate or go on the dole as they dutifully did in the crises of the 1950s and the 1980s.

The cynicism of the current approach is that it gives a political party, which is playing the percentages, a chance. On the other hand, it means the recession is longer than it should be. Credit dries up and the country is fixed in a holding position, which is sustainable as long as the Government can borrow abroad and the insiders are kept in a state of nervous anxiety rather than acute fear about their future. This allows the insiders to see the outsiders as, at best, a worrisome nuisance and, at worst, a threat to the insiders' standard of living. The outsiders quickly become the enemy.

Playing the insider/outsider game allows the ruling party to experiment with what could be described as "ground hurling". Ground hurling means you keep close to your marker, don't do anything dramatic and see how the ball breaks. Ground hurling allows a team that shouldn't have a hope in hell to eke out a win and rob the prize.

Think of this in political terms. We are now faced in Ireland with the pathetic spectacle of the Government protecting the rotten status quo based on the entirely mendacious strategy of political survival rather than national renewal. This starts with the banks. Forget patriotism, self-preservation is the name of the game.

The ongoing public sector versus private sector debate is also part of the bigger insider/ outsider tactic, as it creates false skirmishes. This new conflict is a by-product of the failed "a lot done, more to do" economics of this government. But expediently, this row actually helps the Government because it detracts from the real issue of who mismanaged the economy to such an extent that we ended up here. As smokescreens go, the public/private fight on radio and TV current affairs shows suits the Government.

The reality is that most Irish families are made up of workers who work in both private and public sector. Most families are made up of a small business person, a civil servant, a student, a pensioner, an employee of a private company and someone on the dole. There is no public/private divide.

It is entirely made up to detract from the real issue, which is that the present administration, their senior civil servants, who are supposed to run and regulate the country, and the insiders at the top of the banks and property companies destroyed this economy. This is the one and only issue. But that is not the issue the Government wants discussed so it sets up roadblocks, like the private versus public wage debate.

This is also what the NAMA strategy is based on. The Government argues that it is patriotic to save the banks and the bondholders of the banks because not to do so would undermine the "credibility" of Ireland. What do you think actually undermined the credibility of Ireland? Could it possibly be appalling management of the economy in the past five years?

It is not patriotic to lumber the next generation with the debts of the last. This is not patriotism, it is theft. But for a political power base desperately clinging to power, saving the banks and borrowing to do so is a strategy based on buying time and hoping something will turn up. If it works, Fianna Fail saves itself from obliteration at the cost of hundreds of thousands of extra outsiders being forced -- unnecessarily -- to go on the dole or emigrate. But they are outsiders, so who cares?

In Sweden of the 1990s, the government took a different approach. It fired those responsible. It nationalised the banks. It made sure all the stockholders' funds were wiped out before it put a penny of government money into the bankrupt banks. In so doing, Sweden learnt from the disaster. The main lesson is a simple one, which is that the "more of the same" approach is not good enough.

This country needs to be fixed, not patched up. We don't need tinkering about with the old model. We need to see through the present government strategy. It is not about renewal but is all about keeping its incompetent fingers on the levers of power until something turns up. In so doing, it is aided and abetted by the ECB, which will keep the Irish banks afloat because it is afraid of an embarrassment such as a default within the euro.

The only way it can achieve this is by allowing the banks to mortgage the next generation with more useless borrowing to keep land prices falsely underpinned using the new device called NAMA bonds.

That's the game -- and they dress it up as patriotism.

More fool us if we go along with it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: fearbrags on February 15, 2010, 04:23:55 AM
http://www.youtube.com/user/jbyeats&rclk=cti


this  man speaks  the  truth
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: stephenite on February 15, 2010, 10:12:10 AM
Quote from: fearbrags on February 15, 2010, 04:23:55 AM
http://www.youtube.com/user/jbyeats&rclk=cti


this  man speaks  the  truth

No, he doesn't. New world order conspiracy theory shouted by an angry little man.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: no mo do yakamo on February 15, 2010, 07:49:52 PM
Quote from: stephenite on February 15, 2010, 10:12:10 AM
Quote from: fearbrags on February 15, 2010, 04:23:55 AM
http://www.youtube.com/user/jbyeats&rclk=cti


this  man speaks  the  truth

No, he doesn't. New world order conspiracy theory shouted by an angry little man.
Well how does economics work so?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on February 21, 2010, 07:07:33 PM
Gene Kerrigan: O'Dea exit not part of the Master Plan
With all eyes on the Dail, a bank dodged paying back €280m it owed the taxpayer, writes Gene Kerrigan
Sunday February 21 2010

WOW, that was some big story of the week, wasn't it? You know what I'm talking about? Low standards in high places, and all that. (A reader has just emailed to say: "You mean the Willie O'Dea resignation, don't you?". Eh, no sir.)

No, the story of the week was far more important than that fleeting matter. Yesterday, we -- the people -- were due to be paid a small stipend from the Bank of Ireland. A mere €280 million or so, delivered to the exchequer. And guess what? The bank didn't pay up. Not to worry -- everything's going according to the Master Plan! We are, for whatever reason, remarkably calm about what's going on.

The ransacking of the economy; the transfer of huge wealth from the citizens to the bankers and their bondholders. The protection of the rich; and the placing of the burden on the poor, the disabled, the workers, the middle classes and credit-starved small businesses. But, hey, the banks are being looked after. And eventually, in some as-yet-unexplained way, this will "kickstart" the smart economy and before you know it we'll all be back buying five-grand handbags.

Oh, did I mention, apart from the €280 million that Bank of Ireland didn't pay, on May 13 there'll be another €280 million we're due that AIB won't be paying either? The total of €560 million was to be a small return on the seven billion we've donated to "recapitalise" AIB and Bank of Ireland. We were due our first €280 million dividend yesterday but the EU said they were still checking the fine print, so the payment couldn't go ahead. And, here's the bit I love -- Bank of Ireland says, instead of the €280 million, they'll give us shares in the bank. And yesterday nice Brian Lenihan said he was cool with that. (Frankly, if I had to choose between Bank of Ireland shares and a cheque from the Bank of Toytown . . . )

The media is upset -- because the State shareholding in the banks is increasing. And the banks are upset for the same reason (apparently it infringes the Eleventh Commandment -- Thou Shalt Not Nationalise, for fear of upsetting The Markets -- May God Be With Them). Not to worry. This creeping nationalisation is embarrassing for Lenihan, but otherwise the Master Plan is working. The two Brians are on the case. Meanwhile, the other wing of the Master Plan, the entity known as Nama, is soaring like a . . . like a . . . well, it's floundering.

Nama is way behind schedule in buying the first €19 billion of bad debt. Anglo, the freak "bank" that should have had a stake driven through its zombie heart, accounts for about €10 billion of that. Utter insanity, but part of the Master Plan. Meanwhile, Arthur Beesley of the Irish Times revealed the top 10 visionary entrepreneurs whose activities generated the bad debt -- the smartest lads to ever come out of Dublin, Cork or Galway. Liam Carroll, Bernard McNamara, Sean Mulryan, Derek Quinlan, Paddy McKillen, Treasury Holdings (Johnny Ronan and Richard Barrett), Michael O'Flynn, Joe O'Reilly, Gerry Gannon and Gerry Barrett.

These are the visionaries lionised for years in the media and in the country's business schools. They had the vision to, eh . . . borrow more than they could repay. They were bankrolled by the country's leading reckless gobshites -- the top bankers at Bank of Ireland, AIB and Anglo, along with some wannabe gobshites at Irish Nationwide and EBS. And where did the gobshites get this money? From an unidentified cabal of International Idiot Gamblers. Not to worry. The Master Plan is working.

Suddenly, Cowen and Lenihan began referring to "our banks". Now, politicians may legitimately refer to "our hospitals" and "our schools", but "our banks"? Imagine if Dunnes Stores became insolvent. Would we refer to "our supermarkets" and insist we must use State money to prop them up? No, they're a private outfit and they look after themselves. Suddenly, the banks became "ours". Because banks are different. There was no way we could do something radical -- set up or encourage an alternative banking infrastructure. That would be against market principles, May God Be With Them. Better by far to take billions from the pension funds and give them to dead banks in the hope that -- well, it'll all work out in the end.

"And so it will", said Brian. "Indeed it will", said the other Brian.

"Very courageous", said the man from the EU, with a small, satisfied smile on his highly polished face.

The Master Plan (thrown together in a panic, under the influence of stunned bankers) insists that above all else the zombie banks must be revived. The reckless gobshites and the International Idiot Gamblers are to be bailed out, while the low paid and the disabled get stiffed.

What about unemployment? Well, that too is going according to the Master Plan. Unable to devalue the currency, the Brians seek to increase competitiveness by making export goods cheaper. Method? Deflate wages by kicking the bottom out of the labour market. Mission just about accomplished.

The Master Plan was never formally launched. It has to be discerned through the cracks in the establishment's solidarity. We were given a cover story -- by reviving the insolvent banks we'll increase lending to business. This will kickstart the economy, leading to increased employment and prosperity for all. The sceptics said this was mad. Come on, we were told, don't be negative. Pull on the green jersey.

Well, perhaps you'll believe Eugene Sheehy, then head of AIB. Speaking in November 2008, Sheehy said: "Recapitalisation of the banks will not make credit more available." A year later, asked at an Oireachtas Committee to comment on Nama and credit, Sheehy said: "If people think that the day after Nama, that the country is going to be awash with money, that's not going to happen."

In between, Steven Seelig of the IMF, the two Brians' own appointee to the board of Nama, told the Government confidentially that Nama won't significantly increase lending. The cover story justified the insane economic strategy. The consequent deflation of the economy has thrown thousands more onto the dole.

Hold on a minute . . . I've just had a message, via carrier pigeon, from Willie O'Dea. "How dare you, in the second paragraph above, refer to this bank story as far more important than my resignation? By the way, are you still involved in the heroin trade? Heh-heh, only kidding." Willie -- a sly local politician -- was caught spreading calumny about a rival, behaviour that was on Wednesday evening deemed acceptable by every Fianna Fail and Green Party TD. Subsequent unease among rank-and-file Greens caused political panic, forcing Willie's resignation. In my books, that's a minor story. Politicians -- we've seen 'em come, we've seen 'em go. No big deal. On the other hand, the people of this country are stretched on the ground, in shock at the sudden collapse of the economy. Brian Cowen is sitting on our head, while John Gormley holds our legs down. And Brian Lenihan is rooting through our pockets. Whatever he finds, he gives to the banks.

That, compared with the resignation of a transient politician, is a story.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Zapatista on February 22, 2010, 12:12:59 PM

The State has been issued with 184 million shares in Bank of Ireland.

The development has the effect of diluting the existing shareholders in the bank and means that the State has a 15% stake in the bank worth €250m.

Last year the State invested €3.5 billion in the financial institution as part of its rescue of the banking system. In return, the bank was to pay an annual dividend of 8%, worth €0.25 billion.

But the EU blocked banks in receipt of State aid from making such payments.



http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0222/boi.html

Can someone help me? If we can't get cash payments how can the bank repay the annual dividend of 8%? Will we get another 15% of the shares next year? Is this nationalisation by stealth? How do people who paid good money for shares feel about it?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on February 22, 2010, 05:21:54 PM
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200905/imf-advice (http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200905/imf-advice)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: armaghniac on February 22, 2010, 07:47:53 PM
QuoteHow do people who paid good money for shares feel about it?

I expect they feel pissed off. But this is because the people they appointed to run the bank effectively lost all of their money, so whatever they paid the shares are largely worthless.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Zapatista on February 22, 2010, 07:52:36 PM
Did the finance minister not check that it would at least be legal for the bank to make a cash payment? They seem more interested in finding ways to keep ryanaair out of hangers6 than making the banks pay their way.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on February 22, 2010, 08:03:29 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on February 22, 2010, 07:52:36 PM
Did the finance minister not check that it would at least be legal for the bank to make a cash payment? They seem more interested in finding ways to keep ryanaair out of hangers6 than making the banks pay their way.

In a funny way the pandering to the banking & developing equivalents of Michael O'Leary is what caused the mess. They haven't learned from it either it is just that, for top civil servants, giving O'Leary 80-90% control of an entire sector scares the life out of them and anyone else with half a brain.

They offered O'Leary a new hanger all for himself but no, it must be Aer Lingus' hanger.





Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Zapatista on February 22, 2010, 08:11:25 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 22, 2010, 08:03:29 PM

In a funny way the pandering to the banking & developing equivalents of Michael O'Leary is what caused the mess. They haven't learned from it either it is just that, for top civil servants, giving O'Leary 80-90% control of an entire sector scares the life out of them and anyone else with half a brain.

They offered O'Leary a new hanger all for himself but no, it must be Aer Lingus' hanger.

It was they who decided to sell aer lingus not o'leary. Did they think richard branson or rupert murdock was going to buy it?

The details on the hanger are well being discussed on another thread (ok I brought it up).
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on February 22, 2010, 08:16:34 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on February 22, 2010, 08:11:25 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 22, 2010, 08:03:29 PM

In a funny way the pandering to the banking & developing equivalents of Michael O'Leary is what caused the mess. They haven't learned from it either it is just that, for top civil servants, giving O'Leary 80-90% control of an entire sector scares the life out of them and anyone else with half a brain.

They offered O'Leary a new hanger all for himself but no, it must be Aer Lingus' hanger.

It was they who decided to sell aer lingus not o'leary. Did they think richard branson or rupert murdock was going to buy it?

The details on the hanger are well being discussed on another thread (ok I brought it up).

It was Minister Seamus Brennan who acted the legislation to sell Aer Lingus.

Here is what the Ryanair website had to say upon his passing: http://www.ryanair.com/en/news/mr-seamus-brennan-td-ryanair-statement (http://www.ryanair.com/en/news/mr-seamus-brennan-td-ryanair-statement)

MR SEAMUS BRENNAN TD - RYANAIR STATEMENT



The people of Ryanair today (Wednesday, 9th July 2008) expressed their deep shock and sadness at the death of Mr Seamus Brennan TD.  He was a politician of great courage and foresight, who was pivotal to much of the transformation in the Irish economy over the past 20 years.  As a pioneering Minister for Transport in the early 1980's, Seamus Brennan developed the two airline strategy which laid the basis for 20 years of strong tourism growth in Ireland.

More recently he proposed the splitting up of the Aer Rianta airport monopoly into three competing airports (Dublin, Cork and Shannon) and while this plan remains unfinished, there can be no doubt that Cork and Shannon airports have enjoyed considerable success in recent years under the local autonomy that Seamus Brennan introduced.  Ireland will be a poorer place without Seamus Brennan's vision and leadership.

Ryanair's Michael O'Leary said today:

"All of us here in Ryanair will mourn Seamus Brennan's sudden and untimely passing.  He was without doubt the best, most courageous and most visionary Transport Minister that Ireland has ever had.  It is no exaggeration to say that without Seamus Brennan's  vision in the early 1980's, Ryanair would not exist today and the low fare air travel revolution which benefits so many millions of European citizens on a daily basis would have been strangled at birth.

"All of us send our sincere condolences to his family and wide circle of friends.  Both he and they are in our thoughts and prayers"
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Zapatista on February 22, 2010, 08:23:00 PM
I don't get your point?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on February 22, 2010, 08:28:15 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on February 22, 2010, 08:23:00 PM
I don't get your point?

If former Minister Brennan had a tent in Galway, O'Leary would go camping there.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Zapatista on February 22, 2010, 08:30:36 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 22, 2010, 08:28:15 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on February 22, 2010, 08:23:00 PM
I don't get your point?

If former Minister Brennan had a tent in Galway, O'Leary would go camping there.

Is that the same point as I made? Who did they expect to be looking to buy Aer Lingus when they decided to sell it?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on February 22, 2010, 08:36:40 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on February 22, 2010, 08:30:36 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 22, 2010, 08:28:15 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on February 22, 2010, 08:23:00 PM
I don't get your point?

If former Minister Brennan had a tent in Galway, O'Leary would go camping there.

Is that the same point as I made? Who did they expect to be looking to buy Aer Lingus when they decided to sell it?

No it is not the same point. Every major aviation decision of the last two decades was made by Minister Brennan. Most if not all of the seem to favour one private/later floated company as against the company Minister Brennan was responsible for on behalf of the people of Ireland.

As for who did they expect to buy it, the market. It was an IPO not a trade sale.

It amazes me how O'Leary's actions and regular sermons are accepted here as gospel, much as Seanie Fitzpatrick's were.

Answer me a question I asked earlier, where are the 2000 jobs O'Leary promised in Shannon? And after that explain why anyone would listen to him again?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Zapatista on February 22, 2010, 08:54:21 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 22, 2010, 08:36:40 PM
No it is not the same point. Every major aviation decision of the last two decades was made by Minister Brennan. Most if not all of the seem to favour one private/later floated company as against the company Minister Brennan was responsible for on behalf of the people of Ireland.

As for who did they expect to buy it, the market. It was an IPO not a trade sale.

It amazes me how O'Leary's actions and regular sermons are accepted here as gospel, much as Seanie Fitzpatrick's were.

Answer me a question I asked earlier, where are the 2000 jobs O'Leary promised in Shannon? And after that explain why anyone would listen to him again?

All these decisions were made with the support of the parliamentary party. Brennan was appointed and supported in his decisions. If he was doing a poor job then his boss should have addressed it. Unless he agreed with him.

No one in the market would be able or willing to persue shares in Aer Lingus as vigorously as O'Leary.

It amazes me that you think you can claim anyone takes O'Leary as gospel and toss in fitzpatrick for double effect with no sense of sarcasm.

I have no idea were those jobs are. I don't believe O'Leary but o'leary s not answerable to me nor is he spending my money. I don't expect the truth from o'leary, I don't expect anything of him. But as I said on the other thread, that's missing the point.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Smokin Joe on February 22, 2010, 09:25:45 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on February 22, 2010, 12:12:59 PM

and means that the State has a 15% stake in the bank worth €250m.

Last year the State invested €3.5 billion in the financial institution as part of its rescue of the banking system

Anyone else see the irony that they invested €3.5bn in an entity that is only worth €1.67bn (and were happy at the time not to take any equity stake in the company)?

How on earth did they ever expect it to stack up?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on February 22, 2010, 09:31:41 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on February 22, 2010, 08:54:21 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 22, 2010, 08:36:40 PM
No it is not the same point. Every major aviation decision of the last two decades was made by Minister Brennan. Most if not all of the seem to favour one private/later floated company as against the company Minister Brennan was responsible for on behalf of the people of Ireland.

As for who did they expect to buy it, the market. It was an IPO not a trade sale.

It amazes me how O'Leary's actions and regular sermons are accepted here as gospel, much as Seanie Fitzpatrick's were.

Answer me a question I asked earlier, where are the 2000 jobs O'Leary promised in Shannon? And after that explain why anyone would listen to him again?

All these decisions were made with the support of the parliamentary party. Brennan was appointed and supported in his decisions. If he was doing a poor job then his boss should have addressed it. Unless he agreed with him.

No one in the market would be able or willing to persue shares in Aer Lingus as vigorously as O'Leary.

It amazes me that you think you can claim anyone takes O'Leary as gospel and toss in fitzpatrick for double effect with no sense of sarcasm.

I have no idea were those jobs are. I don't believe O'Leary but o'leary s not answerable to me nor is he spending my money. I don't expect the truth from o'leary, I don't expect anything of him. But as I said on the other thread, that's missing the point.

Do I have to spell it out for you and risk running foul of the libel laws!?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on February 22, 2010, 09:47:14 PM
Quote from: Smokin Joe on February 22, 2010, 09:25:45 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on February 22, 2010, 12:12:59 PM

and means that the State has a 15% stake in the bank worth €250m.

Last year the State invested €3.5 billion in the financial institution as part of its rescue of the banking system

Anyone else see the irony that they invested €3.5bn in an entity that is only worth €1.67bn (and were happy at the time not to take any equity stake in the company)?

How on earth did they ever expect it to stack up?
last march around the time of the original bail outs, they could have bought boi and aib for approx 400m (for both of them), it's best not to think about the whole thing to much - just like the govt obviously didn't :D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: fearbrags on February 23, 2010, 04:27:45 AM
http://www.youtube.com/user/jbyeats&rclk=cti
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: heganboy on February 23, 2010, 04:43:05 AM
Quote from: fearbrags on February 23, 2010, 04:27:45 AM
http://www.youtube.com/user/jbyeats&rclk=cti

LMAO- loving Pappa Paul and the big building projects in the vatican - couple of flats in St peter's square?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: stephenite on February 23, 2010, 07:16:31 AM
Who's this fella and where's he from?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on February 24, 2010, 11:47:26 AM
David McWilliams: It's time to shout 'stop' -- NAMA is grand larceny

By David McWilliams

Wednesday February 24 2010

The land has reverted to the price you'd get from a farmer for putting a donkey out to graze on it

For the past year, this column has been warning of a "triple lock" in the Irish banking system, which would financially incarcerate the Irish people for a generation.

The triple lock would solder the people to the banking system in a suffocating embrace forcing us to borrow from tomorrow to pay for yesterday and, in the process, destroy the opportunities of today.

Now with the Government upping its stake in Bank of Ireland, this prediction -- regretfully -- is coming to pass. The worst thing is that it doesn't have to be like this. The latest news that some development land in Athlone valued in the boom at €31m is now worth only €600,000 has truly terrifying implications for all of us, because it means NAMA will bankrupt us, and the triple lock implies that we can't sever the fortunes of the people from the fortunes of the bank.

Let's just recap what I mean by the triple lock. The first lock was the bank guarantee, the second lock was NAMA and the third lock was the "forced" nationalisation of the banks. It is important to remember one overriding fact: we do not need Bank of Ireland or AIB. This truism needs to sink in. There is nothing sacrosanct about either, nor is there anything sacrosanct about the debts these banks have run up. These debts have nothing to do with us.

Yes, we need a banking system or a couple of functioning banks, but they don't have to be AIB or Bank of Ireland as constituted at present.

At this stage, the Government should be trying to give the banks away for free to a large European bank. This is what you would do if a sweetshop were in trouble and banks are no different. Any new owner, taking the opportunity of having cash, not debt, in a downturn, will do a deal with the creditors. This is how normal bankruptcies work.

What big bank wouldn't want to take on the Irish deposit base of €175bn, the branch network and the banking possibilities of a European country? The new owners would do a deal with the old creditors. The way this is done in the real world is that the creditors are told the game is up, there is no cash left in the kitty, but if they are prepared to take stock of the new parent bank, they can get something out of their Irish misadventure. Obviously the new owners of Bank of Ireland would roast the old creditors, but, hey, that's capitalism!

The only way new credit will emerge in Ireland is if there is a new banking balance sheet. And the only way a new banking balance sheet will emerge is if the big banks are given away to a healthy bank for free and the old creditors told where to go -- to the back of the queue.

The problem for us in Ireland is that the people who are drafting our laws locking us to the banks do not understand this, because they are not capitalists; they are legalistic functionaries, civil servants and bankers trying to hold on to their jobs. In short, they are consummate insiders with their interests vested in the old status quo who can't see that the old status quo is the problem.

As a result, these insiders are all too happy to give the outsiders (the people) the bill without any thought of how we are going to raise this money. This is why the Finance Minister can come on radio and talk blithely of billions here and there without appearing to consider just how much money this is and how much we have to produce to earn these sums he is tossing about.

Listening to politicians and bankers/brokers using these figures is like witnessing demented generals in the last stages of a war moving imaginary armies on a map -- battalions that have long been vanquished.

About 18 months ago, the 'guarantee' was constructed to avoid this endgame. The logic of the guarantee was to buy time to get the banks to sort out their own mess. Implicit was the notion that the banks were to look to the market -- not the State -- for capital and, if there were to be a 'bad bank', the banks (not the taxpayer) would have to fund it from their own resources.

On the night the guarantee was first mooted, the 'bad bank' was touched on too. The bad bank would be a skip into which we threw our withered land portfolio. The State would raise the money, but the banks would pay for this out of their profits and the taxpayer was not to be touched.

Unfortunately, and not surprisingly given the way our country runs, the banking 'insiders' hijacked these ideas last year and have left us with the pathetic situation we are in where they get away with it and give us the bill.


To see how pathetic the reality is, let's go back to the site in Athlone and extrapolate. The value of this land has fallen by 98pc from €31m to €600,000. So, after all the hype about Ireland and its new wealth, the price of the land has reverted to the price you'd get from a farmer for putting a donkey out to graze on it.

In the Commercial Court, Mr Justice Peter Kelly -- who is emerging as a hero in all this -- said that his original presumption (from his experience in the Commercial Court in the past year) that land prices had fallen by 70-80pc was now put "in a cocked hat". So he thinks 70-80pc falls in land prices are too optimistic.

So if we look at the breakdown of NAMA's 'assets' and see what this new reality means for the banks and us, we see that there will be €51.5bn of land and development assets and "associated loans" transferred. If we apply Mr Justice Kelly's discount based on what he has seen so far, we are looking at a hole of possibly €40bn, where we will borrow €51.5bn from the ECB, for assets worth a little over €10bn.

Obviously there will be some assets that will be worth more. In addition, some of the assets that are in the UK or the US will recover reasonably quickly, but given that the lion's share are in Ireland, a massive discount should be expected.

Whatever the gap, someone has to plug it and, although the NAMA plan is over 10 years, no one in their right mind believes that development land in Athlone will ever again be worth €31m -- nor should it be.

In fact, permanently cheap land should be the aim in order to give us a comparative advantage. But permanently cheap land would impoverish the landlords and their financial backers -- the very people who have got us into this mess and the very people NAMA is devised to rescue. So someone has to pay for the bailout.

According to the triple lock system devised by the Government, we the people -- the outsiders -- will plug this gap. This is grand larceny overseen by the insiders. Someone has to shout "stop"!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Capt Pat on February 24, 2010, 12:26:15 PM
The government won't do what should be done because the property prices will collapse. This will mean they will lose the election as all the young peoples houses are worth half of what they paid for them. Everthing in this mess comes back to what this government has done and it is doing everything it can to make people feel that things are still good. It is looking after its own reputation.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Trevor Hill on February 24, 2010, 01:12:22 PM
Quote from: Capt Pat on February 24, 2010, 12:26:15 PM
The government won't do what should be done because the property prices will collapse. This will mean they will lose the election as all the young peoples houses are worth half of what they paid for them. Everthing in this mess comes back to what this government has done and it is doing everything it can to make people feel that things are still good. It is looking after its own reputation.

They are worth roughly half of what they paid at the height of the boom already. Another few % wont make much of a difference now.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Zapatista on February 24, 2010, 01:38:46 PM
Quote from: Capt Pat on February 24, 2010, 12:26:15 PM
The government won't do what should be done because the property prices will collapse. This will mean they will lose the election as all the young peoples houses are worth half of what they paid for them. Everthing in this mess comes back to what this government has done and it is doing everything it can to make people feel that things are still good. It is looking after its own reputation.

I'd say it has more to do with keeping people out of jail and keeping some on the millionaire list than it has to with the votes.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on February 25, 2010, 03:09:31 PM
Quote from: Capt Pat on February 24, 2010, 12:26:15 PM
The government won't do what should be done because the property prices will collapse. This will mean they will lose the election as all the young peoples houses are worth half of what they paid for them. Everthing in this mess comes back to what this government has done and it is doing everything it can to make people feel that things are still good. It is looking after its own reputation.

But the Indo will tell us to vote them back in because Inda hasn't any charisma, and the public will fall for it again.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on March 07, 2010, 06:29:55 PM
Gene Kerrigan: Blatantly unjust politics takes fun out of dissent
At least rogues like Haughey gave hacks outlandish spin to deride, says Gene Kerrigan

   
By Gene Kerrigan

Sunday March 07 2010

There was a time when a gig as a dissenting newspaper columnist was relatively easy. Charlie Haughey, for instance, was a joy to write about. He lied and thieved with barely an effort to keep the smirk off his face. The obsequious party faithful bowed and grovelled, delighted that such a great leader had consented to pick their pockets. Back then, the gig for a dissenting newspaper columnist involved remembering what Charlie said a few months earlier, taking it out of the files and laying it down beside what he was saying now -- and bingo, watch the penny drop. Wake up, suckers, the guy's a chancer.

But no matter what the little crook did, there was always a solid core of Fianna Failers ready to kiss his hind quarters.

Later on, I enjoyed my work whenever a new packet of money turned up in one of Bertie Ahern's bank accounts. "I won it on a horse", Bertie would say. Or, eh, that was a "dig out". And the other money, the sterling deposits, well, "I didn't get that, I never got it -- oh, wait now, I think I must have changed punts into sterling when I wasn't looking and -- ah, Jayzus, why don't yez all bugger off and commit suicide?"

By God, those were the days. There was a vast centre of fawning deference to the Irish establishment -- all they had to do was put up a threadbare explanation of their questionable conduct and the crawlers bought it. This left a huge constituency of the bewildered faithful to which the perceptive newspaper columnist could attempt to explain what was going on.

Today, you don't have to be perceptive, you don't have to keep records of what the dodgy people said last month or last year. Today, the all-pervading cheesiness at all levels of the establishment is so blindingly obvious that -- well, they've taken the fun out of it.

Take the Greens. Imagine if a few years back someone revealed that a cabal of Fianna Failers was secretly rigging the composition of the Cabinet. Hey -- you be minister long enough to get a pension, then I'll be minister for a while. Imagine if the configuration of the Cabinet was decided by Fianna Fail chancers in deals so secret that even members of the Cabinet seemed unaware of them.

Imagine Haughey or Ahern was caught at that. The ropey alibis and the thick mist of spin would descend on everything, and dissenting newspaper columnists would spend weeks trying to blow the fog away. Today, there's no real effort to pretend that the secret rigging of the Cabinet is anything other than what it is -- unquestionably wrong and irretrievably debased. The very word Green has come to mean a particularly sneaky, self-serving form of behaviour. And the Greens seem cool with that.

Last week, a biggie from the HSE went on Morning Ireland to hammer rank and file campaigning against cuts -- the people who are trying to stop things getting even worse. Why was the HSE escalating the conflict? He said they "want to ensure that no patient or client coming into our services will be put at risk".

This was on a morning when the newspapers and airwaves were aflame with the story of Tracey Fay and the other two dozen or so children who have died in HSE care. Not to mention the countless immigrant children who simply disappear. Meanwhile, a coroner was considering the case of a 41-year-old man who turned blue and died after waiting seven hours in an A&E. Whole armies of people who have waited in A&E for multiples of seven hours read that and shivered. But, hey --not to worry -- the HSE is on the job. The health services might now be misshapen by the market obsessions of the right-wing ideologues in Government, but we can rest easy. Any lower-level public servant who works to rule is now in big trouble, because that potentially puts patients "at risk". And we listen to this and we don't even pretend anymore that it makes sense.

It used to be that a newspaper columnist had to argue that problems within the garda force couldn't merely be ascribed to the occasional bad apple -- that the political control and supervision of the force, the debasement of the very notion of why the force exists, was the problem. Today, this is so obvious that no one needs to be convinced. The Evening Herald got its hands on copies of the letters in which Trevor Sargent interfered unlawfully with the administration of justice. And quite properly published them. And the Opposition slyly -- and in my opinion incorrectly -- suggested that Fianna Fail must have leaked the letters in order to embarrass the Greens. Minister for Justice Dermot Ahern had a conniption. In an instant, the National Bureau of Criminal Investigation -- I'm not kidding, the bloody National Bureau of Criminal Investigation -- is assigned to track down the leaker. Why?

When there was strong evidence some time back that Cabinet confidentially was betrayed, to the commercial benefit of identifiable business people, was the NBCI called in? Like hell it was. But, back then, only the integrity of the Cabinet was compromised by a leak. Now, the cosy relationship between the governing parties is threatened.

And today, the establishment is so gross and lacking in shame that it feels entitled to use a specialised Garda unit to exonerate the Minister for Justice from political allegations of leaking.

The builders have been swearing blind that their inside knowledge shows there are a mere 40,000 empty dwellings in the state. Now, an independent academic survey shows it's more than 340,000. One in six dwellings is empty. And it got this way because of the collaboration of the builders, their friends the bankers and their other friends the politicians. The politicians created the tax breaks, the bankers loaned the money, the builders threw up whole fields of unneeded houses and apartments, hotels and office blocks -- and they all got rich. Now, we pay billions to clean up the mess. In 1987-94, service cuts and tax evasion saw billions in wealth transferred from us to an elite. Lives were destroyed, people died unnecessarily and prematurely. Fortunes were made. Today, there's a transfer of billions from us and our children to the tiny elites of the bankers and their bondholders. They gave us cover stories that for a while seemed to their media fans to have some substance. All this would "clean up" the banks and "get credit flowing", to "mend the economy". No one now believes that. If the cover story is untrue, why is this being done? In whose interest? Some await revenge at a general election. But Fine Gael and Labour offer similar solutions, with a veneer of moral outrage. Even Sinn Fein, on Friday, agreed to "leave the door open" to doing a deal to keep Fianna Fail in power, or Fine Gael, if they have a better offer.

The injustice is blatant. Yet, we seem powerless to stop it. There is, perhaps, a level of fear. Either we swallow the injustice -- or we take on a very, very big fight. And the implications of that are daunting.

Charlie, old son, them was the day

You'd have to wonder what it actually takes for the people of this country to stand up and fight for what is right
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Pangurban on March 08, 2010, 03:37:41 AM

You'd have to wonder what it actually takes for the people of this country to stand up and fight for what is right

This quote from the Article above, is a perfect example of the tendency of Newspaper columinists to run with the Hare and hunt with the Hounds, while trying to appear objective and above the fray. The Newspaper in which this article is printed has been to the fore in its editorials and opinion columns with denunciations of those who are trying too stand up and fight for what is right, namely Community groups,trade unions etc. Too these people it is all entertainment, it fills column inches, provokes some reaction and sells Newspaper, which earns them a salary and some degree of job security. Nothing wrong with that per se, but the feigned indignation, and the moralising, patronising cant and hypocrisy is hard to stomach
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on March 08, 2010, 08:16:23 AM
QuoteYou'd have to wonder what it actually takes for the people of this country to stand up and fight for what is right

Pangur that was my quote rather than from the article - should have made that clearer.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: fearbrags on March 08, 2010, 02:16:36 PM
""You'd have to wonder what it actually takes for the people of this country to stand up and fight for what is right""

That is exactly what I am wondering as well
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Hereiam on March 08, 2010, 02:38:19 PM
A decent leader that people would listen to too.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on March 12, 2010, 09:42:29 AM
Was going to stick this on the Things that make you go WTF thread

Pay hike for Nama staff

Friday, March 12, 2010 - 08:04 AM

The board members of the National Assets Management Agency (Nama) have received a pay hike, just three months into the job.

Finance Minister Brian Lenihan has confirmed the new fee structure, which is said to reflect their increased workload.

It is understood the board's chair will receive a 70% increase on his original pay packet, bringing his salary to €170,000.

Read more: http://www.examiner.ie/breakingnews/ireland/pay-hike-for-nama-staff-449667.html#ixzz0hxCFKUsC
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Rois on March 12, 2010, 12:01:42 PM
The NAMA board should plough the available money into hiring some lower level staff - there's a real bottleneck at the top for the loans transfer.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on March 12, 2010, 11:57:52 PM
Quote from: Declan on March 12, 2010, 09:42:29 AM
Was going to stick this on the Things that make you go WTF thread

Pay hike for Nama staff

Friday, March 12, 2010 - 08:04 AM

The board members of the National Assets Management Agency (Nama) have received a pay hike, just three months into the job.

Finance Minister Brian Lenihan has confirmed the new fee structure, which is said to reflect their increased workload.

It is understood the board's chair will receive a 70% increase on his original pay packet, bringing his salary to €170,000.

Read more: http://www.examiner.ie/breakingnews/ireland/pay-hike-for-nama-staff-449667.html#ixzz0hxCFKUsC

As far as I can see this is the Board we are talking about, not the Executive management team. In that case they will probably meet once a month with the odd EGM on top of that. One or two might do some committee work.

If that is true the money would appear to be very generous especially given the Irish system of appointing a select few to lots of different boards.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Hardy on March 18, 2010, 09:02:04 AM
According to RTÉ news, the fraud squad have arrested a man in his early sixties in connection with their investigation of a particular bank's affairs.

We can guess it's Anglo and we can assume who it is.

Only took a year and a half.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on March 18, 2010, 09:13:36 AM
Quote from: Capt Pat on February 24, 2010, 12:26:15 PM
The government won't do what should be done because the property prices will collapse. This will mean they will lose the election as all the young peoples houses are worth half of what they paid for them. Everthing in this mess comes back to what this government has done and it is doing everything it can to make people feel that things are still good. It is looking after its own reputation.

Well they have the Fianna Fail public relations desk RTE and the Irish Press Irish Independent/Sindo to take care of that for them.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: orangeman on March 18, 2010, 10:16:56 AM
Ex-Anglo Irish Bank chairman in fraud inquiry 

Anglo Irish Bank was nationalised after almost going bust
The former chairman of Anglo Irish Bank is being questioned by Irish police about alleged financial irregularities.

Sean Fitzpatrick stepped down in December 2008 after admitting he had concealed millions of euros in personal loans from the Dublin-based bank.

He hid the loans from shareholders by temporarily transferring them to another bank before each year-end to avoid revealing them in the accounts.

The bank became a symbol for the decline of the "Celtic Tiger" economy.

Last year, Anglo reported the biggest loss in Irish corporate history when it made a loss of 4.1bn euros (£3.7m) in the six months to March on the back of large impairments on its property loans to developers.

Aside from the concealment of directors' loans, other scandals to afflict the bank included a scheme to allegedly give artificial support to the bank's share price and the recording of a huge loan from another bank as a customer deposit.

Mr Fitzpatrick was arrested at his home in Greystones, County Wicklow, by the Garda Bureau of Fraud Investigation on Thursday. His house was also searched.

Following the arrest, Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said he had "always stated there is an extensive Garda investigation under way".

"I have been cautious not to prejudice that investigation and am eager to see justice take its course."




Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Hardy on March 18, 2010, 10:24:44 AM
They're really on the ball anyway, searching his house a year and a half on. I'm sure he has all the stuff indexed and filed for them. F****n Keystone Cops.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on March 18, 2010, 10:28:36 AM
Agree Hardy. I'd heard that the fraud team consisted of 5 investigating gardai. Crack team no doubt but it just shows the commitment to it
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: gerrykeegan on March 18, 2010, 11:06:32 AM
An why did they have to arrive at 6.30 in the morning, to catch him on the hop? Was he furiously trying to get the shredder going? They could just as easily saved time and resouces and rang him to tell him to come down to the station.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Trevor Hill on March 18, 2010, 01:17:02 PM
they have to be seen to do something, however little or late.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Bord na Mona man on March 18, 2010, 06:48:58 PM
Gardai search Seanie Fitz's hideout.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZXVN7QJ8m88 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZXVN7QJ8m88)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: ludermor on March 24, 2010, 10:54:52 AM
What the f**k was that eejit Leo Vardakar spouting about yesterday? Why did he have to include Garrett Fitzgerald in hsi rant to Cowen? I wouldnt have thought it was the wisest thing to do to slag off one of your own ex leaders in attacking the other party.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on March 24, 2010, 11:09:04 AM
This is the guy who was involved in shunting the €7bn lolly between Anglo and IL&P ??.. unreal...

Irish Life & Permanent: Michael Torpey, Irish Life & Permanent Group Treasurer, has announced his intention to resign from the group in order to take up a position as Head of Banking with the National Treasury Management Agency [NTMA].
Torpey is a former Finance Director of Ulster Bank and First Active [2000 to 2008]. Between 1992 and 2000 he was Group Treasurer of what was originally Irish Permanent and which became Irish Life & Permanent plc in 1999.

With the Anglo pay rises and this story it's gone beyond just taking the piss now
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Shamrock Shore on March 24, 2010, 11:17:21 AM
Can I ask a question on the Anglo pay-rises.

If one is an assistant manager and gets promoted to manager as the previous manager was made redundant it will mean:

1. now in charge of a team
2. have to work longer hours
3. overall more responsibility

In those circumstances is one not entitled to the 2,000 - 3,000 pay rise per annum (which is what it is)

If that whinging auld wan Joan Burton was made Minister for Whinging in the morning would she expect a pay rise. I expect she would. Even though, in theory, she is paid from the same overall kitty as the Anglo staff.

Just asking.....
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: haranguerer on March 24, 2010, 11:28:16 AM
I agree. All this 'holier than thou' attitude to bankers bonuses pisses me off.

A lot of the criticism over it is down to politicians realising they have a scapegoat to save their own arses, and trying to hang the bankers high to purge their own sins/stupidity.

There were those who did wrong, took chances swindled, etc, and they dont deserve bonuses, but is there not those in any industry? A lot of it seems to be begrudgery; imo most who get the bonuses deserve them, so fair play to them. 

And I'm not a banker btw!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on March 24, 2010, 11:31:11 AM
In those circumstances you could expect it alright SS but "entitled" is another word altogether. The larger point Burton was making I thought was that the excuse re "specialists" given by Carey for the pay rises could also be used in other areas of the "public" service which in effect is what Anglo is now that it is 100% state owned.

If the previous manager was made redundant you could argue there's no need for that position to be filled  anyway in line with the moratorium on PS jbs.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: fearbrags on March 27, 2010, 02:46:12 AM
Brian Cowen today announced that he is changing our emblem from a shamrock to a condom,
]
It more accurately reflects the Governments political stance. a condom allows for inflation, destroys the next generation, protects a bunch of pricks, and gives u a sense of security while your actually been screwed.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Ulick on March 27, 2010, 08:21:18 AM
Purely pedantic I know but our national emblem is the harp not shamrock. The only nation in the world to my knowledge that has a musical instrument as it's emblem.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: fearbrags on March 27, 2010, 12:44:27 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/morningireland/player.html?20100326,2725657,2725657,real,209
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on March 29, 2010, 08:49:23 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0329/banks.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0329/banks.html)

Time to sort out the banks, says Brian Lenihan
    Monday, 29 March 2010 20:05
Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan has said tomorrow will see strong and resolute action to deal with the banking crisis in Ireland.

Speaking this afternoon, Mr Lenihan said he would be announcing a strong recapitalisation programme for the banks.

The minister said it is time to sort out the banking sector once and for all so that it can support economic recovery.

His comments come as shares in the two main banks heading into the National Asset Management Agency fell sharply in trading today.

AIB shares closed down 19.6%, while Bank of Ireland shares fell 10.4%.

The shares fell in value during what one trader described as a reasonably busy level of trading.

Tomorrow afternoon will see a coordinated action to restructure the finances of Ireland's banks, as NAMA announces details of the first loan transfers.

Statements will also be made by Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan and Financial Regulator Matthew Elderfield about the restructuring and capitalisation of the banking sector.

NAMA will say how much of a discount it will put on the property, land and development portfolios at the five participating institutions.

The original estimate was for a 30% discount on loans being transferred to NAMA.

This is now predicted to be much bigger, with up to 60% being mentioned for Irish Nationwide.

In addition, the Financial Regulator will decide how much money banks will need to set aside for bad loans. This will shed light on how much new capital the lenders will need.

There is speculation that investment will have to come from the State in return for greater Government ownership.

It is estimated that 40% of Bank of Ireland and more than 70% of AIB will end up in State ownership. That rumour has hit the bank shares hard.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on March 29, 2010, 08:56:19 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 29, 2010, 08:49:23 PMThe minister said it is time to sort out the banking sector once and for all so that it can support economic recovery.
so were all the times he 'sorted out the banks' just pretend 'sorting outs'?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on March 29, 2010, 09:12:19 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on March 29, 2010, 08:56:19 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 29, 2010, 08:49:23 PMThe minister said it is time to sort out the banking sector once and for all so that it can support economic recovery.
so were all the times he 'sorted out the banks' just pretend 'sorting outs'?

I'm glad you said it.

In the last decade Social Partnership gave public sector (ad some private) pay rises of 67%. Inflation was <15%. Not only did this put the public service pay bill out of sight but it handed the state a pension liability it will never be able to meet unless it reverses the pay rises. However the unions are trying to reverse the cuts, so the Government re-open social partnership.  ::)

I am all for dialogue but the unelected leaders of the trade union movement in this country need a severe shock before talks start. Otherwise they will bankrupt the state.

Meanwhile the banks need more money. They borrowed from places like Germany to give billions to developers who paid ridiculous prices for land. Some of this land was bought at inflated prices using mortgages from the same banks. Any of the unsold property means trouble for the banks while some of the sold property means trouble for the same banks. Somehow they got into 'lose lose' territory.

Except the EU (German banks owed the money) stepped in. The Irish taxpayer will recapitalise the Irish banks. Yippee. The problem is that many of those taxpayers are public servants who are about to see their remuneration savaged and many others are people in negative equity because they bought into the inflated property. Then there are the 300,000 who have lost their jobs.

But don't worry Brian will fix it tomorrow.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Billys Boots on March 30, 2010, 09:28:07 AM
QuoteI am all for dialogue but the unelected leaders of the trade union movement in this country need a severe shock before talks start.

Those f*ckers don't have a clue, and wouldn't recognise a shock.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Rois on March 30, 2010, 05:00:04 PM
Anyone else tuning in?

Average of 47% discount so far. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: seafoid on March 30, 2010, 05:11:31 PM
NAMA won't do anything to help Ireland's productivity problem.
FF inflation was great craic while the party lasted but now someone has to pay for it.  The next few years are looking very austere. Hopefully Galway hurlers will bring some joy along ;) Otherwise a Mayo all-Ireland would do the trick. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: gerrykeegan on March 30, 2010, 05:42:40 PM
Quote from: Rois on March 30, 2010, 05:00:04 PM
Anyone else tuning in?

Average of 47% discount so far.

Thought it was funny to hear the RTE guy describe the figures as humongous!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: whiskeysteve on March 30, 2010, 05:52:26 PM
Excuse my ignorance of financial matters but did i just hear an analyst blithely mention that Lenihan just announced an extra 10billion will be paid in the future on top of the 8 billion to be paid in the shorter term.

Which will be on top of the 4 billion already whipped out. Thats 22billion to feed the banks, have i got that right?

Payments til 2025 or something
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: orangeman on March 30, 2010, 06:08:03 PM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on March 30, 2010, 05:52:26 PM
Excuse my ignorance of financial matters but did i just hear an analyst blithely mention that Lenihan just announced an extra 10billion will be paid in the future on top of the 8 billion to be paid in the shorter term.

Which will be on top of the 4 billion already whipped out. Thats 22billion to feed the banks, have i got that right?

Payments til 2025 or something

Probably more.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: whiskeysteve on March 30, 2010, 06:10:07 PM
Yeah im wrong thats just for AIB.

Unreal
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: bcarrier on March 30, 2010, 06:11:07 PM
One question only

Why do anglo bond holders have to be paid ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on March 30, 2010, 06:16:05 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on March 30, 2010, 06:11:07 PM
One question only

Why do anglo bond holders have to be paid ?

Because of 'the cheapest bailout in history' also known as the Bank Guarantee.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: LaurelEye on March 30, 2010, 06:41:05 PM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on March 30, 2010, 06:10:07 PM
Yeah im wrong thats just for AIB.

Unreal

You're still wrong.

That's just for Anglo.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on March 30, 2010, 06:50:43 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 30, 2010, 06:16:05 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on March 30, 2010, 06:11:07 PM
One question only

Why do anglo bond holders have to be paid ?

Because of 'the cheapest bailout in history' also known as the Bank Guarantee.
that's right, i had totally forgotten how they used to bandy that phrase about with gay abandon back in the heady days of Sept/Oct 08 :D :D :D :D :D :D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on March 30, 2010, 06:51:14 PM
The deal with the unions is amazing. No more pay cuts for them.

That means (unless someone can see another possibility) one of either:

a) the Government is about to fall before they have to honour this deal

or

b) there are be serious tax hikes for everyone on the way.

I hope it's a).

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: LaurelEye on March 30, 2010, 06:56:03 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 30, 2010, 06:51:14 PM
The deal with the unions is amazing. No more pay cuts for them.

If I was being cynical, it gives the government a diversion as the country's future is poured down the gullets of Anglo, Irish Nationwide, et al.

Divide et impera and all that jazz.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: whiskeysteve on March 30, 2010, 07:03:00 PM
Quote from: LaurelEye on March 30, 2010, 06:41:05 PM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on March 30, 2010, 06:10:07 PM
Yeah im wrong thats just for AIB.

Unreal

You're still wrong.

That's just for Anglo.

Apologies, Anglo.

Anyway with figures like that... miserable public finances for decades to feed a black hole...
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on March 30, 2010, 07:09:47 PM
Credit where credit is due. Hours after the Bank Guarantee Bogball posted this:

Quote from: Bogball XV on September 30, 2008, 10:06:53 AM
Quote from: orangeman on September 30, 2008, 09:33:28 AM
Quote from: muppet on September 30, 2008, 03:21:58 AM
Just back from the beer I mentioned earlier.

Shouldn't have gone.

From what I hear Irish banking will not be the same by lunchtime today. Better stay in bed.



Beer on a Monday night is never a good thing unless you've just won the AI - In that instance, it's almost compulsory !  ;) :D

Good news for Irish banking ?

Will UK and other governments follow suit ?

I don't know the ins and outs of it yet, but it seems to be a massive piece of bluffing by lenno - if he were ever asked to pay up, he couldn't, i suppose it depends on how long it will be before the markets either test his promise or just decide to disbelieve him.  If he has to come up with the goods, it'll be a disaster for the taxpayer.  We're currently talking about the budget from hell coming up because tax revenues are short by 7bn on estimates (you have to wonder what idiot came up with the estimates), yet the minister finds it okay to guarantee over €400Bn of loans made by banks?  If 10% go bad (probably not an unreasonable assumption) that's €40 Bn, almost our total annual budget.
It would have been a better idea to force some mergers between the banks who appeared in serious bother yesterday and the ones who just appeared in bother.

I thought this was worth posting for a laugh. I actually miss his FF worshipping.

Quote from: Gnevin on September 30, 2008, 01:20:41 PM
Surely the Irish banks are solid now?

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: seafoid on March 30, 2010, 07:11:49 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on March 30, 2010, 06:11:07 PM
One question only

Why do anglo bond holders have to be paid ?

the billion dollar question. Probably someone told Lenihan it couldn't happen.
Under Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the US apparently the holders of less senior debt get wiped out. 
They took the risk and they pay for failure. In Ireland the taxpayer takes the hit. There is no hope of ever getting the money back from Anglo.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: seafoid on March 30, 2010, 07:13:18 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 30, 2010, 07:09:47 PM
Credit where credit is due.




but there is no credit!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on March 30, 2010, 07:15:17 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 30, 2010, 07:13:18 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 30, 2010, 07:09:47 PM
Credit where credit is due.




but there is no credit!

I'd have preferred some liquidity myself but he wanted credit.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Rossfan on March 30, 2010, 07:59:21 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 30, 2010, 06:51:14 PM
The deal with the unions is amazing. No more pay cuts for them.

That means (unless someone can see another possibility) one of either:

a) the Government is about to fall before they have to honour this deal

or

b) there are be serious tax hikes for everyone on the way.

I hope it's a).

The Unions have fairly sold out in this case. Problem is they wont get it through the membership.
If they do then whatever Govt is in power is bound by it .....unless the Budgetary position worsens ::) which it will wit hthe Billions being poured into the fcukin banks.
No matter what happens there will be taxation rises which will remain for about 40 years.
Just remember the Brits are still paying off debts they got into for the Napolenic wars. :o :o
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on March 30, 2010, 09:54:51 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 30, 2010, 07:09:47 PM
Credit where credit is due. Hours after the Bank Guarantee Bogball posted this:

Quote from: Bogball XV on September 30, 2008, 10:06:53 AM
Quote from: orangeman on September 30, 2008, 09:33:28 AM
Quote from: muppet on September 30, 2008, 03:21:58 AM
Just back from the beer I mentioned earlier.

Shouldn't have gone.

From what I hear Irish banking will not be the same by lunchtime today. Better stay in bed.



Beer on a Monday night is never a good thing unless you've just won the AI - In that instance, it's almost compulsory !  ;) :D

Good news for Irish banking ?

Will UK and other governments follow suit ?

I don't know the ins and outs of it yet, but it seems to be a massive piece of bluffing by lenno - if he were ever asked to pay up, he couldn't, i suppose it depends on how long it will be before the markets either test his promise or just decide to disbelieve him.  If he has to come up with the goods, it'll be a disaster for the taxpayer.  We're currently talking about the budget from hell coming up because tax revenues are short by 7bn on estimates (you have to wonder what idiot came up with the estimates), yet the minister finds it okay to guarantee over €400Bn of loans made by banks?  If 10% go bad (probably not an unreasonable assumption) that's €40 Bn, almost our total annual budget.
It would have been a better idea to force some mergers between the banks who appeared in serious bother yesterday and the ones who just appeared in bother.

I thought this was worth posting for a laugh. I actually miss his FF worshipping.

Quote from: Gnevin on September 30, 2008, 01:20:41 PM
Surely the Irish banks are solid now?
Aye, the Gnevin quote was funny alright, did you notice how he drifted from FF soon after his neighbour was turfed out to make way for the biffo. 
Unfortunately, my €40bn prediction seems a touch conservative too.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on March 30, 2010, 10:03:40 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 30, 2010, 07:59:21 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 30, 2010, 06:51:14 PM
The deal with the unions is amazing. No more pay cuts for them.

That means (unless someone can see another possibility) one of either:

a) the Government is about to fall before they have to honour this deal

or

b) there are be serious tax hikes for everyone on the way.

I hope it's a).

The Unions have fairly sold out in this case. Problem is they wont get it through the membership.
If they do then whatever Govt is in power is bound by it .....unless the Budgetary position worsens ::) which it will wit hthe Billions being poured into the fcukin banks.
No matter what happens there will be taxation rises which will remain for about 40 years.
Just remember the Brits are still paying off debts they got into for the Napolenic wars. :o :o
I would have thought that union membership would be biting the hands off the govt to get this signed asap, they're being guaranteed their positions at the same salary they're currently on (of course, they may have reservations as to the ability of this govt to guarantee anything).
I heard someone say that if we plunge further into recession this deal is off, how is that measured?  What if we don't recover as quickly as is being currently estimated?  Are pay cuts still out of the question?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on March 30, 2010, 10:05:39 PM
Lenno on talking some absolute shite as I sit here, he doesn't look too bad though, I really can't understand why he's putting himself through this though.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: An Gaeilgoir on March 30, 2010, 10:07:40 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on March 30, 2010, 10:03:40 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 30, 2010, 07:59:21 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 30, 2010, 06:51:14 PM
The deal with the unions is amazing. No more pay cuts for them.

That means (unless someone can see another possibility) one of either:

a) the Government is about to fall before they have to honour this deal

or

b) there are be serious tax hikes for everyone on the way.

I hope it's a).

The Unions have fairly sold out in this case. Problem is they wont get it through the membership.
If they do then whatever Govt is in power is bound by it .....unless the Budgetary position worsens ::) which it will wit hthe Billions being poured into the fcukin banks.
No matter what happens there will be taxation rises which will remain for about 40 years.
Just remember the Brits are still paying off debts they got into for the Napolenic wars. :o :o
I would have thought that union membership would be biting the hands off the govt to get this signed asap, they're being guaranteed their positions at the same salary they're currently on (of course, they may have reservations as to the ability of this govt to guarantee anything).
I heard someone say that if we plunge further into recession this deal is off, how is that measured?  What if we don't recover as quickly as is being currently estimated?  Are pay cuts still out of the question?

It was handy that the deal was done before the numbers of the bank bailout came to light. I think they call it synchronised politics. Maybe i am just a tired and 50 billion poorer cynical irish taxpayer.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: bcarrier on March 30, 2010, 10:10:24 PM
Of course you can repudiate debt.

Second Question ... who are the " irish businesses" with anglo bonds.

Call me cynical but I suspect quinn is probably near top of the list  and biggest beneficiary of todays move. Time will tell.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: An Gaeilgoir on March 30, 2010, 10:10:44 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on March 30, 2010, 10:05:39 PM
Lenno on talking some absolute shite as I sit here, he doesn't look too bad though, I really can't understand why he's putting himself through this though.

Watching him as well. Maybe he is right or maybe he is wrong in what he is doing, but he knows his brief and has a bit of passion and belief in his voice, the only one in this shambolic government. Time will tell if he is right.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on March 30, 2010, 10:15:57 PM
Anyone else thought Ned O'Keejfes racist rant in the Dail was shameful.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: bcarrier on March 30, 2010, 10:20:09 PM
I think lenihan is genuine man trying to reverse one big error of judgement ( largely based on in accurate representations of others).

NOK is clueless as are those who elect him.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: An Gaeilgoir on March 30, 2010, 10:26:33 PM
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on March 30, 2010, 10:15:57 PM
Anyone else thought Ned O'Keejfes racist rant in the Dail was shameful.

Just one of the shuout down brigade. another Maurice Hickey of the dail We deserve to get this mountain of shit what we elect these type of people. The Parish pump politician is still going strong while the country burns.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: sammymaguire on March 30, 2010, 10:27:20 PM
this whole NAMA thing is funny as hell, you couldn't make it up and expect people to believe it
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: gerry on March 30, 2010, 10:30:50 PM
This a bigger day to remember when asked  " where were you when you put your grand kids into debt"  than where were you when kennedy got shot
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Bogball XV on March 30, 2010, 10:40:24 PM
Quote from: An Gaeilgoir on March 30, 2010, 10:10:44 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on March 30, 2010, 10:05:39 PM
Lenno on talking some absolute shite as I sit here, he doesn't look too bad though, I really can't understand why he's putting himself through this though.

Watching him as well. Maybe he is right or maybe he is wrong in what he is doing, but he knows his brief and has a bit of passion and belief in his voice, the only one in this shambolic government. Time will tell if he is right.
I think you're right about a lot of that, truth is we don't know if he's right or wrong (although every time he finally sorts something out, he's back finally sorting it out again a few months later), but I do think he could have listened to other views and opinions.  It seems to me that this idea was put to him back in April last year, he liked it and has championed it to such an extent that amending the plan would seemed like a personal failure or weakness or something. 
He blustered a lot on there too, saying that the rest of europe have bank guarantee schemes (on deposits only Brian, not quite the same as yours) and that banks worldwide have experienced the same problems as ours have and so many other countries will be adopting NAMA like plans and are studying ours at present (they may be, it'd be a good way of ruling that option out).
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on March 31, 2010, 08:26:16 AM
RIP - Ireland 30/3/2010. Final nail in the coffin.

http://www.financedublin.com/debtclock.php (http://www.financedublin.com/debtclock.php) Debt clock
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Hardy on March 31, 2010, 11:16:22 AM
The Knowledge Economy is officially dead. Yesterday saw the birth of the Pillage Economy.

Perhaps the most depressing moment of all yesterday was the illustration, as mentioned above, that we deserve what we get from the people we elect as we listened to a dialogue of morons between Ned O'Keeffe and Michael Ring. As these two chimps were yelling "g'up the yard" at each other across the floor of our legislature, our elected leaders were trying to convince us that the world looks to model itself on how we conduct our affairs.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: seafoid on March 31, 2010, 11:27:55 AM
Quote from: Hardy on March 31, 2010, 11:16:22 AM
The Knowledge Economy is officially dead. Yesterday saw the birth of the Pillage Economy.

Perhaps the most depressing moment of all yesterday was the illustration, as mentioned above, that we deserve what we get from the people we elect as we listened to a dialogue of morons between Ned O'Keeffe and Michael Ring. As these two chimps were yelling "g'up the yard" at each other across the floor of our legislature, our elected leaders were trying to convince us that the world looks to model itself on how we conduct our affairs.

there are other countries who are just as banjaxed, Hardy

Haldane said there had been permanent damage to the global economy caused by the banking crisis and that if all of it persisted the loss could be as high as $200tn , of which Britain's share would be £7.4tn."Banks would not have deep enough pockets to foot this bill. Assuming that a crisis occurs every 20 years, the systemic levy needed to recoup these crisis costs would be in excess of $1.5tn per year. The total market capitalisation of the largest global banks is only around $1.2tn. Fully internalising the output costs of financial crises would risk putting banks on the same trajectory as the dinosaurs, with the levy playing the role of the meteorite."http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/mar/30/andrew-haldane-break-up-banks

The UK simply can't afford another crisis or a deepening of this one.  Neither can the states.
The whole model of finance as we know it is far more dangerous than anyone in power is willing to admit. 

The finance sector has exploded over the last 20 years and any boom in those years has been down to excessive risk taking by the banks and houses of finance. In the real economy wages have not been growing in line with economic growth. Most of the growth of the last 10 years was illusory.

I read this book recently and really enjoyed it.

http://www.amazon.com/Great-Financial-Crisis-Causes-Consequences/dp/1583671846/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1270031052&sr=8-1


"the book analyses the structural problems of U.S. capitalism in its chronic tendency toward stagnation rooted in inadequate business investment leading to slow growth, unemployment of labor, and low utilization of capital. This book makes the case that the excesses of financialization and the widening inequality of income distribution are themselves indirect effects of stagnation in the real economy"

Your average FF TD is not designed the kind of thinking that is now required on mainstream economics. It's like asking Neidin the donkey to run in the Gold Cup.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on March 31, 2010, 11:29:55 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wV1lZMTCqf8&feature=related (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wV1lZMTCqf8&feature=related)

I think George sums it up best
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on March 31, 2010, 02:43:28 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 31, 2010, 11:27:55 AM

Your average FF TD is not designed the kind of thinking that is now required on mainstream economics. It's like asking Neidin the donkey to run in the Gold Cup.

And then betting the economy on him.

Then when he dies of old age at the start line blame 'Global Factors'.

Those who point to a good performance by Lenihan have a point. But any compliment fired in that direction also lands a derogatory blow on his predecessor, an Taoiseach not to mention those who served with him in previous cabinets. Harney's & McCreevy's ideology (remember we're 'closer to Boston than Berlin') was particularly sickening yet Lenihan still sits in cabinet with her. She seems to be as unsackable as any of the public servants she despises.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Hardy on March 31, 2010, 03:59:03 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 31, 2010, 11:27:55 AM
Your average FF TD is not designed the kind of thinking that is now required on mainstream economics. It's like asking Neidin the donkey to run in the Gold Cup.

Good analogy. This particular Neidín (O'Keffe) seems to have entered himself in the race and he and Michael Ring are plodding around a lap behind the field, kicking and biting at each other, oblivious to the mocking of the crowd and the mockery they're making of the occasion. 
Title: Shane Ross - We salute you! .... Muppet.
Post by: muppet on March 31, 2010, 05:32:19 PM
http://www.shane-ross.ie/archives/174/sean-quinn-we-salute-you/ (http://www.shane-ross.ie/archives/174/sean-quinn-we-salute-you/)

Sean Quinn: We Salute You!
Published February 5th, 2007 in Health, VHI and BUPA
State monopolies are on the run.

It is here, in the new Ireland, that we have bred fresh business heroes such as Sean Quinn.
Last week, Sean Quinn bought Bupa in a lightning deal. He thus dealt the would-be state monopoly VHI a series of blows:

Blow number one: Sean Quinn, entrepreneur, was about to challenge VHI head-to-head.
Blow number two: Quinn was starting today. Bupa's efficient operation would continue seamlessly. Vincent's hopes that thousands of Bupa customers would be marooned without an insurer were dashed. The delicious prospect of panic-stricken Bupa punters diving into the arms of the nanny state's VHI had vanished overnight. Sean had bought Bupa's entire book. Competition was back - this time in spades.
Blow number three: Sean was promising to freeze all Bupa's prices for a year. VHI's are set to increase. Such nefarious activity is known as competition. It should be outlawed.
Blow number four: Quinn's initiative was probably within the law.
The semi-state had seen paradise regained, then snatched from its jaws by an interloper at the 11th hour.
Being under attack from competition at home was bad enough, but offstage VHI was fighting a rearguard action. While the VHI's domestic domination was weakening by the hour, it was under siege from another hero of Irish business out in Europe. Charlie McCreevy is threatening court action against Ireland for allowing the VHI to trade under more favourable rules than the competition.

The VHI is privileged. It is not forced to keep as much money in its reserves as Vivas or Bupa. Indeed, it is subject to no solvency demands. McCreevy believes this is unfair to its competitors. So if Bupa and Vivas gain an edge because they do not insure as many older customers, they lose out because they are forced to keep huge sums in reserves. VHI suffers no such albatross; its antics are state-guaranteed. It cannot go bust.

The market is distorted in both directions. The semi-state wins on the swings what it loses on the roundabouts. But it wins by a mile as the biggest whinger about the practices of its private sector opponents.

Sean makes business buzz. He challenged the CRH monopoly - and succeeded.

Sean was fed up with paying excessive insurance on his lorries, so he founded Quinn Direct and built the most successful insurance business in Ireland.

Sean bought 20 per cent of Conor O'Kelly's live-wire stockbrokers, NCB (once owned by Dermot Desmond, but where the enterprise culture still survives), and has since seen them challenge stuffy establishment brokers Davy and Goodbody.

Two weeks ago Sean bought 5 per cent of an Irish bank. Not blue-chip BoI or AIB. Sean targeted the anti-establishment Anglo Irish Bank - and spent €570m buying its shares.
This genius, who started his business life selling sand and gravel from his family's Fermanagh back garden, has combined being a champion of the customer with making a mint.

A logical step for a man with heretical instincts, a healthy force for revolution in Irish business.
This week we should salute a businessman who managed to rescue 300 Bupa staff from the dole, 450,000 customers from the clutches of the VHI - and the Government from an embarrassing lack of competition.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: seafoid on March 31, 2010, 05:58:37 PM
anti establishment? anglo Irish? Pull the other wan
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on March 31, 2010, 06:10:44 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 31, 2010, 05:58:37 PM
anti establishment? anglo Irish? Pull the other wan

Maybe he meant in a sort of bankrupt the nation way........
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: armaghniac on March 31, 2010, 07:50:42 PM
Anglo Irish Bank has today announced a loss of €12.7bn for the 15-month period to December 31, 2009, the biggest corporate losses in Irish history.

Someone worked this out as €322 a second. It makes you think!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: sammymaguire on March 31, 2010, 09:39:26 PM
any mention of corporate governance on this thread?  :-\  ::)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Shamrock Shore on April 01, 2010, 12:07:21 AM
Would lodging this help?

(http://i45.tinypic.com/whfdeb.jpg)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: seafoid on April 01, 2010, 08:23:12 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on March 31, 2010, 07:50:42 PM
Anglo Irish Bank has today announced a loss of €12.7bn for the 15-month period to December 31, 2009, the biggest corporate losses in Irish history.

Someone worked this out as €322 a second. It makes you think!

That is some going on a loan book of 70bn. The former Financial Regulator, John Hurley, should be strung up.
Fianna Fail should be outlawed. The costs to the taxpayer are unbelievable. Who owns Anglo's bonds?
On what basis did Biffo and Lenihan decide to include Anglo in the bank guarantee scheme?   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on April 01, 2010, 08:49:32 AM
QuoteOn what basis did Biffo and Lenihan decide to include Anglo in the bank guarantee scheme?

Do you really have to ask that question seafoid?

Lying thieves always stick together.
http://www.gubuwire.com/?p=2469 (http://www.gubuwire.com/?p=2469)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on April 01, 2010, 04:29:04 PM
Quote from: Declan on April 01, 2010, 08:49:32 AM
QuoteOn what basis did Biffo and Lenihan decide to include Anglo in the bank guarantee scheme?

Do you really have to ask that question seafoid?

Lying thieves always stick together.
http://www.gubuwire.com/?p=2469 (http://www.gubuwire.com/?p=2469)

Brilliant.

If only.......
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on April 01, 2010, 05:46:29 PM
All throughout the construction of NAMA Lenny has talked about getting the best value for the taxpayer. That is all great sounding but the problem is, as taxpayers, they get to take extra money off us to pay for this and basically we never get it back.

One of the scariest excuses being bandied about for not letting Anglo go to the wall is that bondholders might lose confidence, basically they wouldn't lend to our government or banks again. In addition they get interest, lots of it when confidence is low. Lucky them, they get a choice. We don't.

If the government really want to give the taxpayer value for money why don't they offer to pay us interest on every cent of extra tax each individual in the State is paying since the levy etc. were introduced in 2008? Seeing as confidence is low I'd suggest a rate equal to what the government pay the bond market.



Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: Declan on April 07, 2010, 02:44:21 PM
Just to keep things in balance while everybody is crucifying Quinn:

Report reveals staggering cost of €33bn operation
By Emmet Oliver Deputy Business Editor
Wednesday April 07 2010
IRELAND'S banking crisis will be one of the most expensive in history, according to a report from Goodbody Stockbrokers.
Based on figures for the developed world since the 1970s, it is already the third most expensive, said the broker. Ireland's bank rescue will cost 20pc of GDP and this doesn't even include the cost of NAMA or the bank-guarantee scheme.
Only South Korea and Japan have had more expensive banking failures, according to figures included in the report by chief economist Dermot O'Leary.
Using the costs of capitalising the banks to date (€33bn), O'Leary said this was well above the "average cost" of banking crises internationally, which were usually about 11pc of GDP.
The Scandinavian banking crises of the 1990s were highly expensive and long-lasting, but their costs were nowhere near those of Ireland.
Mr O'Leary also pointed that since the Irish banking crisis began, the economy had shrunk by 12.3pc, which has magnified the impact.
He admitted that the cost of the crisis had been far higher than Goodbody had previously estimated.
"A large proportion of this stems from Anglo Irish Bank, which may cost the taxpayer €22bn," he said. However, attempts had been made to move beyond the problem with NAMA and the new stringent capital requirements laid down by the Financial Regulator, Matthew Elderfield.
"Banking crises tend to be costly affairs and the current Irish one is no exception," said Mr O'Leary.
His report said that Ireland was "not out of the woods" yet in relation to the Budget deficit, which is likely to stand at 11pc of GDP at the end of this year.
"The deficit would have been closer to 15pc of GDP this year, were it not for the changes that have taken place -- but at this level, the deficit is clearly too high," he commented.
Mr O'Leary also highlighted the economic and social problem of vacant housing. He said the vacancy rate across the country was 15pc, but there were major regional variations. Vacancies in the border area were running at 20pc, compared with just 11pc in Dublin.
"As a result, the housing market in the greater Dublin area will recover first and with an estimated 80pc of the price adjustment complete, this may not be too far off," he said.
Ireland's borrowing levels continue to rise, with debt-to-GDP due to hit 82pc by the end of next year. This does not include NAMA or all of the recent banking capitalisations.
Ireland's trade position and dependence on imports are also changing rapidly. At the end of 2009, Ireland had a 2.8pc current-account deficit, but this was forecast to be a 4.2pc surplus by the end of 2011.

And there's more good news:

AIB are one of the main lenders  to the # 1 biggest commercial real estate bust in history.

http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2010/real_estate/1004/gallery.commercial_real_estate/index.html (http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2010/real_estate/1004/gallery.commercial_real_estate/index.html)
http://www.prlog.org/10504659-irish-business-news-allied-irish-bank-bites-off-more-than-it-can-chew-in-the-big-apple.html (http://www.prlog.org/10504659-irish-business-news-allied-irish-bank-bites-off-more-than-it-can-chew-in-the-big-apple.html)

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: seafoid on April 07, 2010, 03:54:08 PM
NAMA is appalling. It's the biggest wealth transfer from ordinary Irish people to the rich since Cromwell. At least Ollie had a work ethic and a strong sense of what was wrong and right. NAMA is immoral.

  There are 1.9 million people at work in the Irish economy. Their average earnings last year were €36,300. After tax, that's €29,500 each. From this, each one will stump up an average of €4,600 just to pay the interest on the money the State is borrowing to fund the bank bailout. 100406 progressive-economy.ie blog.

NAMA has not stopped the deflation of the property bubble 

Bank of Ireland has 199,000 of the 800,000-odd residential mortgages in the State and has estimated that 21.5% of its customers are in negative equity and that the average net debt of those in negative equity is €38,000. BoI's figures are in line with ESRI estimates of upto 200,000 being in negative equity by the end of 2010. namawinelake blog
That BoI figure of 21.5% compares to 10% in mid 2009. Things are going to get a lot worse before they get worse. 

Taxpayers take all of the downside. Who do the properties secured on NAMA's money belong to? Not the taxpayer. Who pays if the shit continues to hit the fan? Not the bondholders. It's an absolute disgrace.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on April 07, 2010, 04:14:53 PM
QuoteThings are going to get a lot worse before they get worse.

That is the most pessimistic comment I've seen yet.  ;D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: seafoid on April 07, 2010, 04:20:50 PM
The banks won't lend because they are effectively bust. So where can first time buyers get a loan? Nowhere. So who is going to buy ? Nobody. so what is going to keep prices at current levels? Nathin

At least summer is on the way. Fianna Fail couldn't f**k that up  ;)

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: sammymaguire on April 07, 2010, 10:18:51 PM
you would think with the tax payer bailing the banks out that there would be some kind of benefit for doing so, like you pay this extra and you with get double back in ten years like that scheme they ran a few years ago SSIA or something but oh no, not even that to sweaten this mess
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: sammymaguire on April 07, 2010, 10:24:58 PM
whatever happened to that SSIA anyway??  ???

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Savings_Incentive_Account  ::)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on April 10, 2010, 11:54:21 AM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/stephanieflanders/2010/04/irish_lessons_for_the_uk.html (http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/stephanieflanders/2010/04/irish_lessons_for_the_uk.html)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on April 21, 2010, 06:29:41 PM
This (http://www.rte.ie/business/2010/0419/boi.html (http://www.rte.ie/business/2010/0419/boi.html)) Boucher pension to up unbelievable. Cowen as usual says he can do nothing. He is lying.

Here's what he can do.

He can introduce emergency legislation, like he did with the Bank Guarantee, like he did setting up NAMA, to create a new tax/levy. This tax/levy would only apply to highly paid bank staff and only to staff of those banks who benefited from either tax payers money or the guarantee. This could be done very quickly.

The tax/levy would cease to apply when a given bank had repaid the taxpayer in full.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the Developers of Ireland??)
Post by: muppet on April 30, 2010, 10:24:28 PM
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/30/world/europe/30europe.html?ref=todayspaper (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/30/world/europe/30europe.html?ref=todayspaper)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on May 06, 2010, 04:00:00 PM
I am beginning to feel economically that we all fell off a cliff a while ago. The thing is, because we haven't hit the bottom yet, people have only noticed it has got bit breezy.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-05-05/capital-markets-face-worst-crisis-in-100-years-evolution-says.html (http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-05-05/capital-markets-face-worst-crisis-in-100-years-evolution-says.html)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: heganboy on May 06, 2010, 04:22:11 PM
muppet, not just national debt, but companies that are trongly affiliated with those countries and exposed in turn to their economies are feeling the pinch immediately on the equity pricing but also by the ratings agencies keen to brush u ptheir image wanteing to be aggressive in their valuations- we'll see a rush to downgrade...
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Bogball XV on May 06, 2010, 07:56:32 PM
Quote from: muppet on May 06, 2010, 04:00:00 PM
I am beginning to feel economically that we all fell off a cliff a while ago. The thing is, because we haven't hit the bottom yet, people have only noticed it has got bit breezy.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-05-05/capital-markets-face-worst-crisis-in-100-years-evolution-says.html (http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-05-05/capital-markets-face-worst-crisis-in-100-years-evolution-says.html)
brilliant!!
don't though worry muppet, i've been stockpiling the beans for over a year now, picking them up on the cheap every time there's been a special.  My fortune's secure, not accepting yoyo, dollar or sterling for them though - barrels of oil, that's the only acceptable currency in my store!! 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Bogball XV on May 06, 2010, 07:59:29 PM
 "That said, if we approach the brink, it may just be the only viable option left. Only the ECB can print euros to save the system."

Why do people think that this can be a solution??  I honestly don't get it, it's the same answer a kid would give.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Zapatista on May 06, 2010, 08:10:14 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on May 06, 2010, 07:59:29 PM
"That said, if we approach the brink, it may just be the only viable option left. Only the ECB can print euros to save the system."

Why do people think that this can be a solution??  I honestly don't get it, it's the same answer a kid would give.

Raises comsumer confidence and makes small short term credit flow quicker which would be great for a broadbased tax system like Irelands but wouldn't suit the Frech or Germans so much. At a time when nobody owns anything of any value cash is king.

I read somewhere that it's prevented from happening in the Maastricht Treaty.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Bogball XV on May 06, 2010, 09:08:14 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on May 06, 2010, 08:10:14 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on May 06, 2010, 07:59:29 PM
"That said, if we approach the brink, it may just be the only viable option left. Only the ECB can print euros to save the system."

Why do people think that this can be a solution??  I honestly don't get it, it's the same answer a kid would give.

Raises comsumer confidence and makes small short term credit flow quicker which would be great for a broadbased tax system like Irelands but wouldn't suit the Frech or Germans so much. At a time when nobody owns anything of any value cash is king.

I read somewhere that it's prevented from happening in the Maastricht Treaty.
what it raises is inflation and rapidly and erodes lender confidence.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Rossfan on May 06, 2010, 09:53:55 PM
What a pity we hadn't copied the France/Germany model from 1997 instead of the McCreevy/Harney and their US banker backer friends extreme right wing big business US model.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Zapatista on May 06, 2010, 10:12:57 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on May 06, 2010, 09:08:14 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on May 06, 2010, 08:10:14 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on May 06, 2010, 07:59:29 PM
"That said, if we approach the brink, it may just be the only viable option left. Only the ECB can print euros to save the system."

Why do people think that this can be a solution??  I honestly don't get it, it's the same answer a kid would give.

Raises comsumer confidence and makes small short term credit flow quicker which would be great for a broadbased tax system like Irelands but wouldn't suit the Frech or Germans so much. At a time when nobody owns anything of any value cash is king.

I read somewhere that it's prevented from happening in the Maastricht Treaty.
what it raises is inflation and rapidly and erodes lender confidence.

Yes but your quote says if we approach the brink, it may just be the only viable option left.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Zapatista on May 06, 2010, 10:16:02 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on May 06, 2010, 09:53:55 PM
What a pity we hadn't copied the France/Germany model from 1997 instead of the McCreevy/Harney and their US banker backer friends extreme right wing big business US model.

Spiritually we are probably a lot closer to Boston than Berlin Mary Harney
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: CiKe on May 06, 2010, 10:23:09 PM
If the ECB does go for the nuclear option where does that leave us? Still remain serious concerns over whether deflation is the bigger threat but nuclear option will then see them print money to try and inflate away the debt. None of the economists want a debt-deflation spiral but if they try and print their way out of this through stimulus surely this will just finance an expansion of the deficit that they are supposedly trying to reduce?

Is is possible to print the hundreds of billions necessary and implement fiscal conservatism at the same time? I know the US wasn't particularly concerned about the deficit when it started printing as they took a "we'll cross that bridge when we come to it" approach, but don't really think the ECB can do the same at this point in time
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on May 07, 2010, 07:09:51 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on May 06, 2010, 09:08:14 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on May 06, 2010, 08:10:14 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on May 06, 2010, 07:59:29 PM
"That said, if we approach the brink, it may just be the only viable option left. Only the ECB can print euros to save the system."

Why do people think that this can be a solution??  I honestly don't get it, it's the same answer a kid would give.

Raises comsumer confidence and makes small short term credit flow quicker which would be great for a broadbased tax system like Irelands but wouldn't suit the Frech or Germans so much. At a time when nobody owns anything of any value cash is king.

I read somewhere that it's prevented from happening in the Maastricht Treaty.
what it raises is inflation and rapidly and erodes lender confidence.

Wouldn't that be great though? The Germans could then see what fun a property boom is. Especially the endless type of boomier no downside boom the Irish did.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Bogball XV on May 09, 2010, 10:33:21 AM
Quote from: muppet on May 07, 2010, 07:09:51 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on May 06, 2010, 09:08:14 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on May 06, 2010, 08:10:14 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on May 06, 2010, 07:59:29 PM
"That said, if we approach the brink, it may just be the only viable option left. Only the ECB can print euros to save the system."

Why do people think that this can be a solution??  I honestly don't get it, it's the same answer a kid would give.

Raises comsumer confidence and makes small short term credit flow quicker which would be great for a broadbased tax system like Irelands but wouldn't suit the Frech or Germans so much. At a time when nobody owns anything of any value cash is king.

I read somewhere that it's prevented from happening in the Maastricht Treaty.
what it raises is inflation and rapidly and erodes lender confidence.

Wouldn't that be great though? The Germans could then see what fun a property boom is. Especially the endless type of boomier no downside boom the Irish did.
that would be a really really boomy boom, though I seem to recall they maybe had a bit of an inflation issue in a precious incarnation of the german state.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Ulick on May 15, 2010, 01:13:41 PM
Fair play to éirígí, they seem to be the only people with the balls to express our anger at these gangsters

Seven arrested at Anglo protest

EANNA O'CAOLLAI

Seven people have been arrested during a protest outside the headquarters of Anglo Irish Bank in Dublin this afternoon.

Four people who climbed up on a ledge at the front of the building on Stephen's Green this morning and displayed flags and banners were removed and arrested by gardaí at noon.

Protestors said the four were members of the socialist republican party Éirígí. Three more arrests took place at the rear of the building after a small group of protestors clashed with gardaí.

Protestors outside the bank claimed gardaí had drawn their batons on this small group, resulting in a number of injuries.

A Garda spokesman confirmed the arrests, saying they were for public order offences.

He said no members of the force were injured during the operation but was unable to say if batons had been used.

A demonstration is planned for 2pm outside the bank today.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Ulick on May 15, 2010, 01:16:50 PM
(http://www.indymedia.ie/attachments/may2010/p1030395.jpg)

(http://www.indymedia.ie/attachments/may2010/p1030419.jpg)

(http://www.indymedia.ie/attachments/may2010/p1030429.jpg)

(http://www.indymedia.ie/attachments/may2010/p1030431.jpg)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Zapatista on May 15, 2010, 02:11:54 PM
Yeah, fair balls to them! There is a follow up protest at 2pm today if anyone is about (Dublin) town.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Declan on May 20, 2010, 03:34:39 PM
NY Times today
Irish Miracle — or Mirage?
By SIMON JOHNSON

Peter Boone is chairman of the charity Effective Intervention and a research associate at the Center for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics. He is also a principal in Salute Capital Management Ltd.  Simon Johnson, the former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, is the co-author of "13 Bankers."

With the European Central Bank announcing that it has bought more than $20 billion of mostly high-risk euro-zone government debt in one week, its new strategy is crystal clear: We will take the risk from bank balance sheets and give it to the central bank, and we expect Portugal-Ireland-Italy-Greece-Spain to cut fiscal spending sharply and pull themselves out of this mess through austerity.

But the bank's head, Jean-Claude Trichet, faces a potential major issue: the task assigned to the profligate nations could be impossible. Some of these nations may be stuck in a downward debt spiral that makes greater economic decline ever more likely.

Prime Minister George Papandreou said this week that Greece needs to see strong investment in order for the austerity program to work.  While the government cuts fiscal spending, he said, it needs new private business to employ the dismissed workers so that they are productive, can pay taxes and do not need unemployment benefits.

The problems are strikingly reminiscent of Latin America in the 1980s. Those nations borrowed too heavily in the 1970s (also, by the way, from big international banks) and then — in the face of tougher macroeconomic conditions in the United States — lost access to capital markets. For 10 years they were stuck with debt overhangs, just like the weak euro-zone countries, which made it virtually impossible to grow.

Debt overhangs hurt growth for many reasons: business is nervous that taxes will go up in the near future, the cost of credit is high throughout society, and social turmoil looms because continued austere policies are needed to reduce the debt.  Some Latin America countries lingered in limbo for a decade or more.

Mr. Trichet and Mr. Papandreou can look more closely at home to see what might soon be going wrong.  Ireland was one of the first nations to introduce tough fiscal austerity in this cycle — in spring 2009 the government slashed public-sector spending and raised taxes. Despite the cuts, the European Commission forecasts that Ireland will have one of the highest budget deficits in the world at 11.7 percent of gross domestic product in 2010. The problem is clear: when you cut spending you also lose tax revenues from people who earned incomes from that money. Further, the newly unemployed seek benefits, so Ireland's spending cuts in one category are partly offset by more spending in another. Without growth, the budget deficit still looms large.

Ireland's problems are, sadly, far deeper than the need for simple fiscal austerity. The Celtic Tiger's impressive reported growth over the past decades was in part based on its aggressive attempts to help major corporations in the United States reduce their tax bills. The Irish government set corporate taxes at just 12.5 percent of profits, thus attracting all sorts of businesses — from computer services like Google and Yahoo, to drug companies like Forest Labs — that set up corporate bases and washed profits through Ireland to keep them out of the hands of the Internal Revenue Service.

The remarkable success of this tax haven means that roughly 20 percent of Irish gross domestic product is actually "profit transfers" that raise little tax for Ireland and are owned by foreign companies. Since most of these profits are subject to the tax code, they are accounted for in Ireland where they are lightly taxed; they should not be counted as part of Ireland's potential tax base. A more robust cross-country comparison would be to examine Ireland's financial condition ignoring these transfers. This is easy to do: a nation's gross national product excludes the profits of foreign residents. For most nations, gross national product and G.D.P. are nearly identical, but in Ireland they are not.

When we adjust Ireland's figures accordingly, the situation is dire. The budget deficit was about 17.9 percent of G.N.P. in 2009, and based on European Commission projections (and assuming the G.N.P.-G.D.P. gap remains the same) it will be roughly 14.6 percent in 2010 and 15.1 percent in 2011, while the debt-to-G.N.P. ratio at the end of this year is expected — by our calculation — to be 97 percent, and 109 percent at the end of 2011. These numbers make Ireland look similarly troubled to Greece, with a much higher budget deficit but lower levels of public debt.

Ireland's politicians, rather than facing up to their problems, are making things ever worse. Simply put, the Irish miracle was a mirage driven by clever use of tax-haven rules and a huge credit boom that permitted real estate prices and construction to grow quickly before declining ever more rapidly. The biggest banks grew to have assets twice the size of official G.D.P. when they essentially failed in 2008. The government has now made a fateful choice: rather than make creditors pay some part of the losses, it is taking the bank debt onto the national balance sheet, effectively ballooning its already large sovereign debt. Irish taxpayers are set to be left with the risk of very large payments to make on someone else's real estate deals gone bad.

There is no simple escape, but if the government hopes to avoid a sovereign default, the one overriding priority should be to stop bailing out the banks. Instead, the government should wind down existing banks in a "bad bank," while moving their deposit base and profitable businesses into new, well-capitalized banks that can function without a taxpayer burden. This will be messy, but it is far better than a sovereign default.

Second, the Irish must take the tough fiscal steps that will be required under any circumstances. The International Monetary Fund and the European Union have made clear that funding is available to Ireland — so the government should use this to bridge the tough journey of fiscal cuts ahead.

Finally, the Irish need to consider seriously whether being in the euro zone is worth the cost. The adjustment to this awful situation would be far easier outside the euro zone — even though leaving the zone might have adverse repercussions for other nations. Once again, a comprehensive program with European Union and I.M.F. support might make this the least worse option.

Given the depths of Ireland's problems, it is no wonder the markets are looking with skepticism at the announced bailout package for the entire euro zone provided by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. Policy makers are still not dealing with the core problems of each nation in the euro zone.  With the debt hangovers remaining, who will want to invest in Europe's periphery, and so how can Greece, let alone Ireland, grow? One thing we can be sure of: Europe's political leaders are doomed to be spending much more time at emergency meetings in Brussels over the coming months and years.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: lynchbhoy on May 20, 2010, 03:51:02 PM
at first glance I think that article goes a bit OTT.
Ireland have a bit of growth again and businesses/people coming out to spend.
Also with the recent fall in the euro this should only help accelerate that growth, as Ireland trades mostly with UK and USA - unlike other euro countries who trade mostly between themselves (approx not absolutle).
With interest rates set to stay low, with increased exports hopefully and increasing growth and a feeling amongst at least some business sectors that now is the time to crack on - I personally think that the above article is having a bit of a go !
Yes we may not like the choice our idiotic politicians have made, but we are kind of stuck with it now..
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Declan on May 24, 2010, 01:47:18 PM
Morgan Kelly viewpoint
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2010/0522/1224270888132.html


Monday, May 24, 2010

Burden of Irish debt could yet eclipse that of Greece
OPINION: What will sink us, unfortunately but inevitably, are the huge costs of the September 2008 bank bailout, writes MORGAN KELLY
IT IS no longer a question of whether Ireland will go bust, but when. Unlike Greece, our woes do not stem from government debt, but instead from the government's open-ended guarantee to cover the losses of the banking system out of its citizens' wallets.
Even under the most optimistic assumptions about government spending cuts and bank losses, by 2012 Ireland will have a worse ratio of debt to national income than the one that is sinking Greece.
On the face of it, Ireland's debt position does not appear catastrophic. At the start of the year, Ireland's government debt was two- thirds of GDP: only half the Greek level. (The State also has financial assets equal to a quarter of GDP, but so do most governments, so we will focus on the total debt.)
Because of the economic collapse here, the Government is adding to this debt quite quickly. However, in contrast to its inept handling of the banking crisis, the Government has taken reasonable steps to bring the deficit under control. If all goes to plan we should be looking at a debt of 85 to 90 per cent of GDP by the end of 2012.
This is quite large for a small economy, but it is manageable. Just about. What will sink us, unfortunately but inevitably, are the huge costs of the bank bailout.
We can gain a sobering perspective on the impossible disproportion between the bailout and our economic resources by looking at the US. The government there set aside $700 billion (€557 billion) to buy troubled bank assets, and the final cost to the American taxpayer is about $150 billion. These sound like, and are, astronomical numbers.
But when you translate from the leviathan that is America to the minnow that is Ireland, it would be equivalent to the Irish Government spending €7 billion on Nama, and eventually losing €1.5 billion in the process. Pocket change by our standards.
Instead, our Government has already committed itself to spend €70 billion (€40 billion on the National Asset Management Agency – Nama – and €30 billion on recapitalising banks), or half of the national income. That is 10 times per head of population the amount the US spent to rescue itself from its worst banking crisis since the Great Depression.
Having received such a staggering transfusion of taxpayer funds, you might expect that the Irish banks would now be as fit as fleas. Instead, they are still in intensive care, and will require even larger transfusions before they can fend for themselves again.
It is hard to think of any institution since the League of Nations that has become so irrelevant so fast as Nama. Instead of the resurrection of the Irish banking system we were promised, we now have one semi-State body (Nama) buying assets from other semi-states (Anglo) and soon-to-be semi-States (AIB and Bank of Ireland), while funnelling €60 million a year in fees to lawyers, valuers and associated parasites.
What ultimately matters for national solvency, however, is not how much the State invests in its banks, but how much it is likely to lose. It is alright to invest €70 billion, or even €100 billion, to rescue your banking system if you can reasonably expect to get back most of what you spent. So how much are the banks and, thanks to the bank guarantee, you the taxpayer, likely to lose?
Let's start with the €100 billion of property development loans. We'll be optimistic and say the loss here will be one-third. Remember, Anglo has already owned up to losing about €25 billion of its €75 billion portfolio, so we have almost reached that third without looking at AIB and Bank of Ireland. I think the final loss will be more than half, but we'll keep with the third to err on the side of optimism.
Next there are €35 billion of business loans. Over €10 billion of these loans are to hotels and pubs and will likely not be seen again this side of Judgment Day. Meanwhile, one-third of loans to small and medium enterprises are reported already to be in arrears. So, a figure of a 20 per cent loss again seems optimistic.
Finally, we have mortgages of €140 billion, and other personal lending of €20 billion. Current mortgage default figures here are meaningless because, once you agree a reduction of mortgage payments to a level you can afford, Irish banks can still pretend that your loan is performing.
Banks in the US typically get back half of what they loaned when they foreclose, but losses here could be greater because banks, fortunately, find it hard to take away your family home. So Irish banks could easily be looking at mortgage losses of 10 per cent but, to be conservative, we will say five.
So between developers, businesses, and personal loans, Irish banks are on track to lose nearly €50 billion if we are optimistic (and more likely closer to €70 billion), which translates into a bill for the taxpayer of over 30 per cent of GDP. The bank guarantee may have looked like "the cheapest bailout in the world, so far" in September 2008, but it is not looking that way now.
Adding these bank losses on to the national debt means we are facing a debt by late 2012 of 115 per cent of GDP. If we are lucky.
There is more. The ability of a government to service its debts depends on its tax base. In Ireland the proper measure of tax base, at least when it comes to increasing taxes, is not GDP (including profits of multinational firms, who will walk if we raise their taxes) but GNP (which is limited to Irish people, who are mostly stuck here). While for most countries the two measures are the same, in Ireland GDP is a quarter larger than GNP. This means our optimistic debt to GDP forecast of 115 per cent translates into a debt to GNP ratio of 140 per cent, worse than where Greece is now.
And even this catastrophic number assumes that our economy does not contract further. For the last two years the Irish economy has not been shrinking, so much as vaporising. Real GNP and private sector employment have already fallen by one-sixth – the deepest and swiftest falls in a western economy since the Great Depression.
The contraction is far from over, to judge from the two economic indicators I pay most attention to. Redundancies have been steady at 6,000 per month for the last nine months. Insolvencies are 25 per cent higher than this time last year, and are rippling outwards from construction into the rest of the economy.
The Irish economy is like a patient bleeding from two gunshot wounds. The Government has moved competently to stanch the smaller, budgetary hole, while continuing to insist that the litres of blood pouring unchecked from the banking hole are "manageable".
Capital markets are unlikely to agree for much longer, triggering a borrowing crisis for Ireland. The first torpedo, most probably, will be a run on Irish banks in inter-bank markets, of the sort that sank Anglo in 2008. Already, Irish banks are struggling to find lenders to leave money on deposit for more than a week.
Ireland is setting itself up to present an early test of the shaky EU commitment to bail out its more spendthrift members. Probably we will end up with a deal where the European Central Bank buys Irish debt and provides continued emergency funding to Irish banks, in return for our agreeing a schedule of reparations of 5-6 per cent of national income over the next few decades.
To repay these reparations will take swingeing cuts in spending and social welfare, and unprecedented tax rises. A central part of our "rescue" package is certain to be the requirement that we raise our corporate taxes to European levels, sabotaging any prospect of recovery as multinationals are driven out.
The issue of national sovereignty has for so long been the monopoly of republican headbangers that it is hard to know whether ordinary, sane Irish people still care about it. Either way, we will not be having it around much longer.
We have long since left the realm of easy alternatives, and will soon face a choice between national bankruptcy and admitting the bank guarantee was a mistake. Either we cut the banks loose, or we sink ourselves.
While most countries facing bankruptcy sit passively in denial until they sink – just as we are doing – there is one shining exception: Uruguay. When markets panicked after Argentina defaulted in 2002, Uruguay knew it could no longer service its large external debt. Instead of waiting for a borrowing crisis, the Uruguayans approached their creditors and pointed out they faced a choice.
Either they could play tough and force Uruguay into bankruptcy, in which case they would get almost nothing back, or they could agree to reduce Uruguay's debt to a manageable level, and get back most of what they lent. Realising Uruguay's problems were largely not of its own making, and that it had never stiffed its creditors in the past, the lenders agreed to a debt restructuring, and Uruguay was able to return to debt markets within a few months.
In one way, our position is a lot easier than Uruguay's, because our problem is bank debt rather than government debt. Our crisis stems entirely from the Government's gratuitous decision on September 29th, 2008, to transform the IOUs of Seán FitzPatrick, Dermot Gleeson and their peers into quasi-sovereign instruments of the Irish state.
Our borrowing crisis could be solved before it even happens by passing the same sort of Special Resolution legislation that the Bank of England enacted after the Northern Rock crisis. The more than €65 billion in bonds that will be outstanding by the end of September when the guarantee expires could then be turned into shares in the banks: a debt for equity swap.
We need to explain that the Irish State has always honoured its debts in the past, and will continue to do so. However, the State is a distinct entity from its banks and, having learned the extent of the banks' recklessness, we now have no choice but to allow the bank guarantee to lapse and to share the banks' losses with their bondholders. It must be remembered that when these bonds were issued they had no government guarantee, and the institutions that bought them did so in full knowledge that they could default, and charged an appropriate rate of interest to compensate themselves for this risk.
Freed of the impossible bank debt, the Irish State could concentrate on the other daunting problems left by its decade-long credit binge: unemployment, lack of competitiveness and indebted households. The banks would be soundly capitalised and able to manage themselves free of political interference.
There are two common objections to sharing the banks' losses with their bondholders, both of them specious. The first is that nobody would lend to Irish banks afterwards. However, given that soon nobody will be lending to Irish banks anyway, this is not an issue. Either way, the Irish State and banks are facing a period of relying on emergency funding. After a debt-for-equity swap, Irish banks, which were highly profitable before they fell into the clutches of their current "management", will be carrying little debt, making them attractive credit risks.
The second objection is that Ireland would be sued in every court in Europe. Again wrong. Under the EU's winding-up directive, the government that issues a bank's licence has full power to resolve the bank under its own laws.
Of course, expecting politicians to sort out the Irish banks is pure fantasy. Like their British and American counterparts, Irish politicians have spent too long believing that banks were the root of national prosperity to understand that their interests are frequently inimical to those of the rest of the economy.
The architect of Uruguay's salvation was not one of its politicians, but a technocrat called Carlos Steneri. The one positive development in Ireland in recent months is that control of the banking system has passed from the Government to similar technocrats.
This transfer did not take place without a struggle – one that was entirely missed by the media. When Anglo announced they wanted to take over Quinn Insurance despite the objections of the Financial Regulator, journalists seemed to view this as just another case of Anglo being Anglo. They should have remembered that Anglo cannot now turn on a radiator unless the Department of Finance says so, and what was going on instead was a direct power struggle between the Financial Regulator and the Minister for Finance.
Having been forced to appoint a credible Financial Regulator and Central Bank governor – first-rate ones, in fact – the Government must do what they say. Were either Elderfield or Honohan to resign, Irish bonds would straight away turn to junk.
Now you understand the extraordinary shift in power that lay behind the seeming non-headline in this newspaper last month: "Lenihan expresses confidence in regulator".
The great macroeconomist Rudiger Dornbusch observed that crises always take a lot longer to happen than you expect but, once started, they move with frightening rapidity. Or, as Hemingway put it, bankruptcy happens "Slowly. Then all at once." We can only hope that the Central Bank is using whatever time remains to us as an independent State to devise an intelligent Plan B – or is it Plan C?
________________________________________
Morgan Kelly is professor of economics at University College Dublin
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Hedley Lamarr on May 24, 2010, 01:57:52 PM
God bless the Credit Union and all who sail in her!! 8)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Billys Boots on May 24, 2010, 01:58:56 PM
Gulp.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Declan on May 24, 2010, 02:18:13 PM
Nothing to worry about at all - Sorry if I alarmed anyone :o :o 

Ryan rejects economist's claims on bank guarantee
Monday, May 24, 2010 - 12:03 PM

Communications Minister Eamon Ryan is rejecting claims from an economist that Ireland still faces an economic doomsday because of the bank guarantee.

At the weekend, UCD Professor Morgan Kelly insisted it was a case of when and not if Ireland would go bust.

Professor Kelly - who predicted the property-fuelled economic crisis - said our debt ratio here is actually worse than Greece at the moment.

But Minister Ryan disagrees and insists we will be able to cope with the tough economic challenges that still face us,

He said that Ireland's debt legacy was still a problem but insisted that the country would be able to manage its way through it.


Read more: http://www.examiner.ie/breakingnews/ireland/ryan-rejects-economists-claims-on-bank-guarantee-458908.html#ixzz0oqucgkQv
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Hardy on May 24, 2010, 02:26:46 PM
Phew.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Capt Pat on May 24, 2010, 02:43:09 PM
We can't allow ourselves to be held responsible for money lent to the Nama crowd by the big banks and the international banks. We have to stand up to them and make them accountable for the mistakes they made.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Zapatista on May 24, 2010, 03:00:44 PM
Quote from: Capt Pat on May 24, 2010, 02:43:09 PM
We can't allow ourselves to be held responsible for money lent to the Nama crowd by the big banks and the international banks. We have to stand up to them and make them accountable for the mistakes they made.

Only emigration or death will relieve you of paying the debts.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on June 01, 2010, 12:57:13 PM
http://www.rte.ie/business/2010/0531/anglo.html (http://www.rte.ie/business/2010/0531/anglo.html)

Fresh €2 billion provided for Anglo
Monday, 31 May 2010 16:16
The Government has committed another €2 billion in funding to Anglo Irish Bank. The move comes as Anglo's restructuring plan is being submitted to the European Commission today.

A statement from the Department of Finance said the bank needed new funds because of the losses it had taken on the loans transferred to the National Asset Management Agency and because of further losses on its remaining loans.

The €10 billion first batch of loans from Anglo were transferred to NAMA at a discount of 55%.

On March 31, Finance Minister Brian Lenihan provided €8.3 billion to Anglo, on top of the €4 billion the Government put into the bank last year. At the time, the Minister indicated that the bank could need another €10 billion. The €2 billion announced today is part of that €10 billion.

The €8.3 billion, plus today's €2 billion, are being given in the form of a promissory note, which means the payments will be stretched over a number of years.

The Department of Finance said the bank's future would be determined by talks between it, the Commission and the bank on its restructuring plan. It said the Finance Minister's aim was to minimise the cost to the taxpayer of restructuring Anglo.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Rossfan on June 01, 2010, 08:33:48 PM
Quote from: muppet on June 01, 2010, 12:57:13 PM
[. It said the Finance Minister's aim was to minimise the cost to the taxpayer of restructuring Anglo.

;D ;D ;D

Pull the other one Minister.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on June 02, 2010, 01:37:36 AM
QuoteA statement from the Department of Finance said the bank needed new funds because of the losses it had taken on the loans transferred to the National Asset Management Agency and because of further losses on its remaining loans.

This is an interesting comment.

NAMA, we were told, buys the loans at a discount. However if the State has to pump money into the bank to compensate for the discount are we not simply paying twice for the same (toxic) loan? Would it not be cheaper to put all of Anglo (and most of the others) into NAMA and be done with it?

Of course if we hadn't done the guarantee...........ach sin sceal eile.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Dinny Breen on June 02, 2010, 04:38:31 AM
god I hate on-call but as someone once said the economy depends about as much on economists as the weather does on weather forecasters...
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on June 09, 2010, 05:32:44 PM
http://www.rte.ie/business/2010/0609/banks3.html (http://www.rte.ie/business/2010/0609/banks3.html)

Honohan report (PDF) (http://www.rte.ie./news/2010/0609/honohan.pdf)


QuoteTaoiseach Brian Cowen said the reports vindicated the approach taken by the Government to deal with the crisis and confirmed the need for a bank guarantee scheme. He referred to Governor Honohan's finding that the collapse of Anglo Irish Bank would have cost far more than the guarantee.

This is the greatest load of spin from an Irishman that I've ever heard. The report clearly lays the blame for the Irish version of the crisis in Ireland. Cowen has consistently blamed 'international factors'. The report says that Anglo and Irish Nationwide were 'well down the road to insolvency before...' the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

From the report: "It is clear that a major failure in terms of bank regulation and the maintenance of financial stability failure occurred."

Cowen was Minister for Finance during the period that the seeds of this 'maintenance of financial stability failure' were sown and grew rapidly. He should resign on this alone. But we won't hold our breath.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: seafoid on June 09, 2010, 05:35:10 PM
"By 2015 we will have seen what happens when jobs disappear forever . . .Ireland is at the start of an enormous, unplanned social experiment on how rising unemployment affects crime, domestic violence, drug abuse, suicide and a litany of other social pathologies."
–Morgan Kelly, December 2009


"Corrective regulatory intervention for the system as a whole was "delayed and timid", and a greater increase in capital requirements on risky loans implemented several years earlier would have made a major difference"
Honohan report, June 2010
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Bogball XV on June 10, 2010, 12:06:05 PM
Excellent article by Rossa White of Davy's (unusal for an economist with some of these boys to produce something worth reading)
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1019084.shtml

and a nice reaction from Michael Hennigan of finfacts to yesterday's reports

http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1019879.shtml
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Billys Boots on June 10, 2010, 01:37:13 PM
That's depressing stuff.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on June 11, 2010, 05:22:39 PM
Quote from: Billys Boots on June 10, 2010, 01:37:13 PM
That's depressing stuff.

If you can't quite decipher what the likes of McWilliam and co are talking about here is quick explanation of Economics.

http://www.standupeconomist.com/videos-public/ (http://www.standupeconomist.com/videos-public/)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: armaghniac on June 11, 2010, 07:32:55 PM
Just a quote from the above, your rewards for f**king up the country

Patrick Neary, Chief Executive of the Financial Regulator, retired with a secret €630,000 payoff: He was given a special €202,000 pay-off, plus a retirement lump-sum of €428,000, according to terms disclosed by Finance Minister Brian Lenihan.  In addition, he is receiving an annual pension of €142,670.

Bank of Ireland chief executive Brian Goggin earned €12.46m in 2004-2009. He is on a full pension of  €650,000-a-year at less than 60.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: seafoid on June 14, 2010, 09:40:28 AM
I saw a graph in the FT showing the exposure of European banks to Irish debt. France , German and Dutch banks have exposure in excess of €200bn each.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/3/31794cd6-7536-11df-a7e2-00144feabdc0.html

The Irish times has a great article by Paul Krugman on the dangers of deviating from Keynesian stimulus.. except that Ireland is doing to exact opposite of what he recommends..
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on June 14, 2010, 01:23:42 PM
Quote from: seafoid on June 14, 2010, 09:40:28 AM
I saw a graph in the FT showing the exposure of European banks to Irish debt. France , German and Dutch banks have exposure in excess of €200bn each.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/3/31794cd6-7536-11df-a7e2-00144feabdc0.html

The Irish times has a great article by Paul Krugman on the dangers of deviating from Keynesian stimulus.. except that Ireland is doing to exact opposite of what he recommends..

Obvious then why the EU approved all of our guarantee/bailout/NAMA schemes especially as the tab will be picked up ultimately by the Irish taxpayer, rather than those banks.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Aerlik on June 14, 2010, 02:53:23 PM
Just finished watching show on ABC here about those crooked, lying, cheating, cockroach-shit of a shower of bastards at Goldman Sachs, and what they did.

If EVER there was justification for the noose, they'd be at the top of the pile.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: seafoid on June 14, 2010, 06:30:08 PM
Quote from: muppet on June 14, 2010, 01:23:42 PM
Quote from: seafoid on June 14, 2010, 09:40:28 AM
I saw a graph in the FT showing the exposure of European banks to Irish debt. France , German and Dutch banks have exposure in excess of €200bn each.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/3/31794cd6-7536-11df-a7e2-00144feabdc0.html

The Irish times has a great article by Paul Krugman on the dangers of deviating from Keynesian stimulus.. except that Ireland is doing to exact opposite of what he recommends..

Obvious then why the EU approved all of our guarantee/bailout/NAMA schemes especially as the tab will be picked up ultimately by the Irish taxpayer, rather than those banks.

Yeah. It is shameful. The taxpayer takes it on the chin.  I thought the government had great negotiators with experience going back to 1973 and joining the EEC. The banks walked all over them. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on June 20, 2010, 07:30:49 PM
http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/banking/2010-06-19-bank-failure-pace-tops-2009_N.htm (http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/banking/2010-06-19-bank-failure-pace-tops-2009_N.htm)

Bank failure is 83rd in '10; pace more than double last year's
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Main Street on June 21, 2010, 11:18:06 AM
Quote from: seafoid on June 14, 2010, 06:30:08 PM
Quote from: muppet on June 14, 2010, 01:23:42 PM
Quote from: seafoid on June 14, 2010, 09:40:28 AM
I saw a graph in the FT showing the exposure of European banks to Irish debt. France , German and Dutch banks have exposure in excess of €200bn each.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/3/31794cd6-7536-11df-a7e2-00144feabdc0.html

The Irish times has a great article by Paul Krugman on the dangers of deviating from Keynesian stimulus.. except that Ireland is doing to exact opposite of what he recommends..

Obvious then why the EU approved all of our guarantee/bailout/NAMA schemes especially as the tab will be picked up ultimately by the Irish taxpayer, rather than those banks.

Yeah. It is shameful. The taxpayer takes it on the chin.  I thought the government had great negotiators with experience going back to 1973 and joining the EEC. The banks walked all over them.
Are you not making an assumption that the Government's intention was to negotiate for and prioritise the interests of the citizens?
The Nama deal prioritises the interests of the Banks/lenders, that deal is totally in line with Government economic dogma.
That dogma has not actually been changed by the crash. Fundamentally they are attempting to save/resurrect a model of Economic dogma that has already sunk and known to be destructive.
It would appear that lip service from Irish political leaders is only being paid to the central causes of the crash and they are active in creating confused thinking using smoke and mirrors methods. I believe they know what they are doing and they are doing it with purpose.   

Anyway, afaiu, Kruger's basic point is that spending can be cut after the economy has shown signs of recovery.
That it is folly to cut a stimulus before the economy has shown real signs of real recovery.


Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: seafoid on June 23, 2010, 05:43:57 PM
link to a very good presentation by Ann pettifor on the tasc blog

http://www.progressive-economy.ie/2010/06/deflation-is-no-way-to-reduce-debt.html

WTF decided that the  Keynes approach wouldn't work? And the govt just follows orders.
The next few years look like an absolute nightmare.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: seafoid on June 24, 2010, 05:44:30 PM
http://www.imf.org/external/np/ms/2010/062410.htm

IMF report on Ireland

Unemployment at 9% out to 2015. The Fianna Fail/PD  freakonomics
experiment goes arseways indefinitely
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: give her dixie on June 30, 2010, 12:57:08 PM
Looks like the fox is looking after the hen house....


http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2010/0629/1224273558461.html

State has paid well over €17m in fees for banking crisis advice

FEES PAID by the Government and the Financial Regulator to outside consultants for advice sought since the banking crisis began in the autumn of 2008 have risen to well in excess of €17 million.

The Department of Finance has disclosed that some €1.4 million has been paid to investment bank NM Rothschild this year for financial advice on resolving the problems within the banking sector.

This brings the total sums paid by the Government to investment banks for financial advice during the banking crisis to €8.7 million.

In addition, more than €8.5 million has been paid to legal advisers Arthur Cox, accountants PricewaterhouseCoopers and estate agents Jones Lang LaSalle for advice provided to the department, the regulator and the National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA).

The NTMA, which now oversees the Government's banking strategy, paid Rothschild fees of €583,000 plus VAT of €125,400 last January and made a further payment of €583,333 plus VAT of €122,500 in April. The fees were disclosed by the department under a Freedom of Information request submitted by The Irish Times.

While the fees are paid by the NTMA, Rothschild provides advice to the department and the agency.

The money paid to Rothschild is on top of €7.3 million in fees paid to Merrill Lynch, which provided financial advice during the crisis between September 2008 and June 2009 before losing the contract to Rothschild last summer. Merrill Lynch had been hired in 2008 without the contract going out to public tender as the pace of the financial crisis forced the Government to act quickly to seek external financial advice.

In addition to fees paid for financial and banking advice, some €3.9 million was paid to Arthur Cox from September 2008 to June 2009 for consultancy work on the State bank guarantee, the nationalisation of Anglo Irish Bank and the recapitalisation of Allied Irish Banks (AIB) and Bank of Ireland.

On top of the €17 million total, the Government earmarked €3.1 million for legal advice for the remainder of 2009 and €3 million for 2010, according to a reply last September from Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan to a Dáil question tabled by Labour finance spokeswoman Joan Burton.

The regulator also paid €3.8 million to PricewaterhouseCoopers for assessing the capital requirements of the banks and €840,000 to Jones Lang LaSalle for financial and property advice.

Fees paid for wide-ranging banking advice to the Government is in addition to lucrative contracts awarded by the National Asset Management Agency (Nama) to Arthur Cox, PricewaterhouseCoopers and UK bank HSBC.

A spokesman for the department said it has admitted it lacked sufficient in-house expertise to cope with the financial crisis. He added that the National Pension Reserve Fund received "arrangement fees" of €30 million each from AIB and Bank of Ireland from last year's €7 billion recapitalisation of the two biggest banks.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Rois on June 30, 2010, 01:20:21 PM
Are these fees really a surprise?

If you look hard enough, there's a bit of upside in that a lot of the fees paid will have helped maintain jobs for Irish people in the struggling legal and professional services sector.  I imagine while undeniably lining the pockets of some of the partners in PwC, Arthur Cox etc, the volumes of work involved (of which I have some first hand experience) have created or protected jobs for young solicitors, accountants and estate valuers.  Well I did say you had to look hard!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: seafoid on June 30, 2010, 05:51:10 PM
http://www.progressive-economy.ie/2010/06/no-recovery-yet-and-debt-deflation.html

Nominal GDP fell 4.4% year-on-year and is now 20.2% below its end-2007 peak. GNP fell 8.6% from a year ago and is now 27.6% below its peak. This is an Irish Depression.

If we take the components of growth the data are as follows: personal consumption is down 4.6% year-on-year, -19.6% from the peak; current govt. spending down 8.9%, -11.2% from peak, and investment remains the biggest single contributor to the slump with gross fixed capital formation falling 7.6%, -66.4% from its peak.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Bogball XV on June 30, 2010, 06:59:47 PM
Quote from: Rois on June 30, 2010, 01:20:21 PM
Are these fees really a surprise?

If you look hard enough, there's a bit of upside in that a lot of the fees paid will have helped maintain jobs for Irish people in the struggling legal and professional services sector.  I imagine while undeniably lining the pockets of some of the partners in PwC, Arthur Cox etc, the volumes of work involved (of which I have some first hand experience) have created or protected jobs for young solicitors, accountants and estate valuers.  Well I did say you had to look hard!
Surely we could say the same about any govt expenditure, keynesian economics at its best.  The thing is, I don't believe that Rothschild are in Dublin at all, and I also seem to remember that it was Merill London who were advising, not sure on that one though.

It's been standard practice for the irish govt over the past decade (i have no knowledge of what they did prior to that) to farm out each and every decision to a 3rd party (it's called ass covering) no matter what the price.  One wonders why we bother having one of the highest paid civil services in the world for?  I think there was a report in some of the papers a few weeks ago pointing out that out of 600 odd staff in the dept of finance, 2 had degrees and none were economists?  I only heard it on the radio, so not entirely sure of the numbers, but that was the gist of it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on June 30, 2010, 08:55:36 PM
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/10460207.stm (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/10460207.stm)

Irish Republic out of recession

Unemployment grew slightly in the Irish Republic in June
The Irish Republic officially moved out of recession in the first quarter of 2010, official figures show.

The country's gross domestic product grew by 2.7% during that period on the last three months of 2009.

But the Central Statistics Office said gross national product (GNP), seen by some economists as a more accurate barometer of the economy, fell by 0.5%.

Meanwhile, those claiming unemployment benefit rose by 5,800 in June on a seasonally adjusted basis to 444,900.

That meant June's estimated unemployment rate was 13.4%.

"Realistically, sustained growth is unlikely to take hold until late next year, with continued pressure both at home and abroad," said Melanie Bowler, of Moody's Economy in London.

"We're forecasting that the eurozone will slip back into recession later this year, early next year, which will clearly have implications for the Irish economy."

The return to growth marked the first rise in Irish GDP since the fourth quarter of 2007, bringing two years of recession to an end.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Declan on July 01, 2010, 10:34:43 AM
These are the cheerleaders of fiscal restraint!!

Taxing Master cuts 'grossly excessive' legal bill by 82%

Legal fees in injury case 'revolting' in extreme | 01/07/2010

A TAXING Master who granted only €393,472 of a €2.143 million legal bill expressed his "disgust and bewilderment" at the level of costs claimed.

Taxing Master Charles Moran made his comments in a recent ruling where he granted only 18 per cent of the amount sought. He described the costs claimed as "revolting in the extreme".

He was ruling in a case involving Newbridge, Co Kildare solicitors firm, Patrick V Boland Son, and four barristers including the former attorney general Harry Whelehan SC.

The other barristers involved were Paul Gardiner SC, Dan Boland BL and Cormac McNamara BL.

"In my 15 years as Taxing Master or indeed in all my years involved in litigation, I have never encountered such grossly excessive fees being marked by learned counsel or solicitors," Mr Moran said.

"I can hardly find the words strong enough to describe my disgust and bewilderment at the level of these costs being claimed."

Mr Boland would not comment when contacted. He said the ruling is being appealed and the matter was therefore sub judice.

The case involved an injured party, Declan O'Brien, and the Personal Injuries Assessment Board (PIAB) and the fees were those charged by the team representing Mr O'Brien. In 2005 the High Court ruled that the PIAB could not deal directly with claimants who wanted to be represented by solicitors.

Mr O'Brien, of Tullamore, Co Offaly, was a meat factory worker who suffered an injury. His case was supported by the Law Society.

The PIAB appealed the case to the Supreme Court, which rejected the appeal in December 2008. Costs were granted against the PIAB and went to be taxed.

The PIAB was set up in 2004 with a view to reducing the costs of personal injuries claims. The High Court instruction fee charged by Patrick V Boland Son was reduced by Mr Moran to €86,000 from the €925,000 claimed. The Supreme Court instruction fee was reduced to €46,000 from the €100,000 claimed.

A claim for postage, photocopying, paper and other such costs, of €10,000, was reduced to €1,000.

The brief fees of €110,000 each sought by Mr Gardiner and Mr Whelehan for the High Court hearing were reduced to €25,000 each.

Lawyers for Mr O'Brien claimed his right to be represented by a solicitor was breached by PIAB's actions in seeking to deal directly with him rather than through his authorised solicitor, Denis Boland, principal of Patrick V Boland. Figures released in 2008 showed that Patrick V Boland had received fees of €16 million by then from its work representing clients in Army deafness claims.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Zapatista on July 03, 2010, 08:43:45 AM
Someone help me out please -

Is Fitzpatrick offering his State owned creditors a stake in an oil project in Nigeria?

http://www.rte.ie/business/2010/0702/fitzpatrick.html

If he is successfull would that mean that Irish tax payers would own some of the natual resourses of an African Nation?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on July 04, 2010, 02:56:35 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on July 03, 2010, 08:43:45 AM
Someone help me out please -

Is Fitzpatrick offering his State owned creditors a stake in an oil project in Nigeria?

http://www.rte.ie/business/2010/0702/fitzpatrick.html

If he is successfull would that mean that Irish tax payers would own some of the natual resourses of an African Nation?

It doesn't explain the nature of the 'project'. Kevin Costner's invention could be described as an oil project in the USA and it doesn't mean he owns some of its natural resources.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on July 16, 2010, 03:34:15 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0716/banks.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0716/banks.html)

Govt advised not to guarantee six banks
    Friday, 16 July 2010 14:51
Documents published by the Oireachtas Public Accounts Committee show that the Government was advised not to introduce a blanket guarantee for the six Irish banks just before it did so.

An email from financial consultants Merrill Lynch on 29 September 2008 advised the Government to introduce a secured lending scheme for the banks, under which commercial property could be exchanged for Government bonds or cash.

It said the alternative was a blanket guarantee covering all depositors and senior creditors, which would involve more than €500bn.

Merrill Lynch said this would 'almost certainly negatively impact the State's sovereign credit rating and raise issues as to its credibility'.

It added that the wider markets would be aware that Ireland could not afford to cover the full amount if required.

However, the email also states that 'there is no right or wrong answer' to the problem facing the Government.

It also claimed that apart from liquidity concerns, 'all of the Irish banks are profitable and well capitalised', but warned that liquidity for some could run out in days rather than weeks.

However, Taoiseach Brian Cowen has insisted that the bank guarantee decision was the right one, and he stood over it.

He said Merrill Lynch had put forward a range of options and the Government had to choose the best one.

Mr Cowen said there had been 'wishful thinking' on the part of the banks.

Fine Gael Finance Spokesman Michael Noonan said: 'The documents confirm that Brian Cowen and Brian Lenihan torpedoed the Irish economy through a series of catastrophic decisions.'

'Significant buffer' of assets

The documents released this morning also show the Government believed the risk to the taxpayer from its €440bn bank guarantee scheme would be offset by €500bn in assets held by the banks.

They reveal the Department of Finance told the Taoiseach that there was a 'significant buffer' of assets.

It is understood the documentation has been partially edited by the Department of Finance for reasons of Cabinet and commercial confidentiality.

Speaking on RTÉ's Morning Ireland, PAC Chairman Bernard Allen said that although the Department of Finance had not provided all of the documentation, the committee would publish everything it had received.

Former Financial Regulator Patrick Neary is reported to have informed Mr Cowen that Anglo Irish bank was in good health three days before the Government moved to rescue it.

Mr Neary is quoted in a report in today's Irish Independent as having told Mr Cowen in September 2008 that Anglo Irish Bank was not insolvent.

He is also reported to have said that the bank had enough assets to cover its debts.

Mr Neary made the statement at a meeting on 25 September 2008, which was three days before the Government's bank guarantee scheme.

He is reported to have told Mr Cowen that the bank was simply unable to continue on a current basis from a liquidity point of view.

The Government has so far put more than €14bn into the troubled bank.

Mr Neary made a similar statement about Irish Nationwide at the meeting.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Bogball XV on July 16, 2010, 03:49:05 PM
Beat me to it muppet, I rushed straight here as soon as I saw this:

QuoteThe Government believed the risk to the taxpayer from its €400 billion bank guarantee scheme was offset by €500 billion in assets held by the banks, according to financial documents released by the Oireachtas Public Accounts Committee this morning.

A briefing document compiled by Department of Finance officials for the Taoiseach, dated September 30th - one day after the guarantee was announced - suggested the financial exposure to the taxpayer was mitigated by a "very substantial buffer" :D :D :D of assets.

The asset quality in the financial institutions, the document said, was good with a strong concentration in residential mortgages with a relatively low loan-to-value ratio.

"There is therefore, a significant buffer before there is any question of credit impairments on the Exchequer on foot of the guarantee," the briefing note said.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/0716/breaking2.html?via=mr
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: give her dixie on July 19, 2010, 02:07:33 PM
Credit agency Moody's has downgraded Ireland's government bond ratings to Aa2, blaming banking liabilities, weak growth prospects and a substantial increase in the debt to GDP ratio.

However, Moody's lead analyst for Ireland Dietmar Hornung said it was a "gradual, significant deterioration, but not a sudden, dramatic shift", and the agency believed Ireland has "turned the corner".

The general government debt-to-GDP ratio was at 64 per cent at the end of last year, up from 25 per cent before the financial crisis took hold, and is continuing to rise.

"Today's downgrade is primarily driven by the Irish government's gradual but significant loss of financial strength, as reflected by its deteriorating debt affordability," said Mr Hornung.

The support provided to the banking system, which includes the transfer of billions of euro worth of loans from banks to the National Asset Management Agency, was also cited as a key factor in the rating downgrade. Recapitalisation measures already announced may reach €25 billion, the agency said, but Anglo Irish Bank may require further support.

"While we do not expect the government - not even in a moderately stressed scenario — to incur permanent losses in excess of 25 per cent of the country's 2009 GDP as a result of these obligations, we believe that the uncertainty surrounding final losses would exert additional pressure on the government's financial strength," the agency said in a statement.

The move comes just over a year after Moody's last downgraded the country's rating. On July 2nd 2009, the agency gave the bonds a Aa1 rating, with a negative outlook.

However, the outlook was today changed to stable, with Moody's now viewing the upside and downside risks as evenly balanced at the current rating level.

The agency said it expect expects economic growth to be below historical trend over the next three to five years due to the weak banking and real estate sectors, and the fall in private sector credit.

"If the GDP growth trend were to exceed Moody's expectations - with a quick resumption of domestic credit flow and a supportive global economic environment — then the government's debt metrics could stabilise earlier than is currently being assumed," said Mr Hornung.

General government debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to stabilise at 95 per cent to 100 per cent over the next two to three years, Moody's said.

"Given Ireland's wealthy and flexible economy and its very high institutional strength, these debt levels are commensurate with a Aa2 rating. Ireland's demonstrated adjustment capability and its economic vitality — reflected for instance in its ability to attract foreign direct investment — are important characteristics that support the rating," the agency said.

Fine Gael's deputy finance spokesman Kieran O'Donnell said it was a vote of no confidence in the Government's economic and banking strategy.

"The Government's disastrous banking strategy already means that Ireland now has the highest deficit in the EU since the Second World War," he said.

"Now Moody's decision shows that international markets appreciate the massive costs associated with the Government's plan to pour €25 billion into the black holes of Anglo Irish Bank and Irish Nationwide."

Sinn Féin finance spokes man said the downgrade would be crippling for the whole economy, with the higher cost of borrowing leading to further restrictions in credit for small businesses and households.

"The cost of borrowing will increase for the Irish Government as a result of their unfettered allegiance to an ailing banking system and especially the zombie Anglo Irish bank. Once more, the inadequacy of Government policy concerning the banks has been revealed," he said.

"The Government's home grown crisis, which has produced weak banking and property sectors, is once more curbing economic growth."

Despite the downgrade of bonds, Ireland is likely to sell the full allotment of up to €1.5 billion of 2016 and 2020 bonds tomorrow, ING Groep NV said today.

The sales "are likely to go well in line with the Portuguese auctions last week, given the large concession priced in", senior debt strategist Wilson Chin wrote in a research note today.

"The supply will be rather light this week."

The spread between Irish and German 10-year government bonds was at 286 basis points this morning.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: seafoid on July 19, 2010, 04:20:55 PM
The spread shows no sign of reducing. Ireland can only afford to pay that sort of difference for so long. A lot of the problem relates to the black hole that is Anglo Irish.  Will it drive Ireland into default?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on August 10, 2010, 04:47:02 PM
Quote from: seafoid on July 19, 2010, 04:20:55 PM
The spread shows no sign of reducing. Ireland can only afford to pay that sort of difference for so long. A lot of the problem relates to the black hole that is Anglo Irish.  Will it drive Ireland into default?

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0810/anglo.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0810/anglo.html)

This is semi-old news but it just got approval from the EU. It is worth mentioning though as the actual figure needed has increased yet again.

€10bn Anglo Government injection approved
 
The European Commission has approved Government plans to inject up to another €10bn into Anglo Irish Bank.

The Commission said the Government had notified it at the end of June that it wanted to put just under €8.6bn into Anglo.

This brings the total up to the €22bn figure already indicated by Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan.

But today's decision allows another €1.4bn to be given to Anglo, depending on how much the National Asset Management Agency pays for loans it is taking on from the bank.

The Commission said the approval was temporary, pending a final EU decision on Anglo's restructuring plan, which the bank has indicated it expects in September.

Competition Commissioner Joaquin Almunia said the measure was necessary to preserve financial stability in Ireland, but warned that Anglo Irish Bank would have to 'restructure profoundly'.

This is the third e
mergency injection of funds approved by the EU, following €4bn in 2009 and €10.44bn in March this year.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on August 10, 2010, 05:53:10 PM
It seems Lenny's claim that his advisors recommended the blanket bailout doesn't convince some experts:

by Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev

http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2010/08/economics-1810-merrill-lynch-minister.html (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2010/08/economics-1810-merrill-lynch-minister.html)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Zapatista on August 11, 2010, 12:15:30 AM
Quote from: muppet on August 10, 2010, 05:53:10 PM
It seems Lenny's claim that his advisors recommended the blanket bailout doesn't convince some experts:

by Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev

http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2010/08/economics-1810-merrill-lynch-minister.html (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2010/08/economics-1810-merrill-lynch-minister.html)

O'toole doesn't give that much credit either.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2010/0810/1224276469748.html



http://www.rte.ie/business/2010/0810/anglo.html

The European Commission has approved Government plans to inject additional money into Anglo Irish Bank. But the final amount depends on the value of the bonds it eventually receives from the National Asset Management Agency in return for loans.

The Commission said the Government had notified it at the end of June that it wanted to put just under €8.6 billion into Anglo, which would bring the total up to €22.9 billion. Finance Minister Brian Lenihan had indicated in March that Anglo may need €22 billion in total


It won't end there either.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on August 11, 2010, 12:28:19 AM
Has there been any calculations of what the unemployment rate if the increases in emmigration since 2007 had not taken place.

Also you need to factor in the increases in the numbers of people who have returned to education and the increases in figures of people classified as being sick/unable to work.

So add the increases in emmigration, take up of third level education and increases in the sick/unable to work figure. The true shadow of unemployment has to be several hundred thousand higher.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Zapatista on August 11, 2010, 01:01:05 AM
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on August 11, 2010, 12:28:19 AM
Has there been any calculations of what the unemployment rate if the increases in emmigration since 2007 had not taken place.

Also you need to factor in the increases in the numbers of people who have returned to education and the increases in figures of people classified as being sick/unable to work.

So add the increases in emmigration, take up of third level education and increases in the sick/unable to work figure. The true shadow of unemployment has to be several hundred thousand higher.

You can add in emigration and those who returned home to their home countries but those who are in (or returned to) third level education can't be included. A return to 3rd level education is a good thing. You can't include the sick either as they are sick and unable to work. We need a real figure not the positive view of the facts the Government want to show or the negative view the opposition want to show. I'd guess somewhere in between what is being said.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Declan on August 11, 2010, 08:15:05 AM
Another 2 billion since the weekend. Enough to pay every Garda in the country for a couple of years or every Primary School teacher for a year according to Brian Lucey on the radio this morning. It's a joke but sure we'll just take it and whinge on Liveline rather than actually doing anything
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Zapatista on August 11, 2010, 09:19:13 AM
Quote from: Declan on August 11, 2010, 08:15:05 AM
Another 2 billion since the weekend. Enough to pay every Garda in the country for a couple of years or every Primary School teacher for a year according to Brian Lucey on the radio this morning. It's a joke but sure we'll just take it and whinge on Liveline rather than actually doing anything

Atleast we have the next 50 years to pay for it. I'd say my share will end up as evey one in five days i work will be to pay for this, another day to pay for the running of the country, another day to pay for fuel to run my house, another day for my rent, a half day for TD expences which leaves me with a surplus. Over 50 years then I can retire at 80 and die at 81. The future's bright.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Banana Man on August 11, 2010, 10:25:38 AM
Any more word on the policing board chairman being investigated for alleged irregularities with the Housing Executive???
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on August 11, 2010, 01:20:49 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on August 11, 2010, 01:01:05 AM
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on August 11, 2010, 12:28:19 AM
Has there been any calculations of what the unemployment rate if the increases in emmigration since 2007 had not taken place.

Also you need to factor in the increases in the numbers of people who have returned to education and the increases in figures of people classified as being sick/unable to work.

So add the increases in emmigration, take up of third level education and increases in the sick/unable to work figure. The true shadow of unemployment has to be several hundred thousand higher.

You can add in emigration and those who returned home to their home countries but those who are in (or returned to) third level education can't be included. A return to 3rd level education is a good thing. You can't include the sick either as they are sick and unable to work. We need a real figure not the positive view of the facts the Government want to show or the negative view the opposition want to show. I'd guess somewhere in between what is being said.

A yes but what about the figures for return to education because they have been made unemployed, these people may have emmigrated or gone on the dole instead, but by financing themselves through college they are relieving both the unemployment figures and the department of finance. They are hiding the extent of the problem.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on August 21, 2010, 10:32:37 PM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-11049985 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-11049985)
QuoteThe Pakistan government has said that the cost of rebuilding after the floods could be as high as $15bn (£10bn).

I don't mean to belittle the devastation of the floods in Pakistan in any way but the figure quoted above is around half of what Anglo and Irish Nationwide are likely to cost the Irish taxpayer. Just to put our banking crisis in a financial context versus a natural disaster.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Hereiam on August 22, 2010, 10:06:48 AM
What is it going to take for Ireland to get out of this one. The money involved is ridiculous, is it a fact that the Irish people don't understand the figures involved i.e cant relate to them as it is such a large amount, anyone care to guess what will cause the public to start panicing cos at the minute my guess is that people are just saying "sure we will all right" What has happen here will not make pretty reading in the history books. Ireland will be begging of countries for years to come.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on August 25, 2010, 02:35:39 PM
http://www.rte.ie/business/2010/0825/ntma.html (http://www.rte.ie/business/2010/0825/ntma.html)

Downgraded again by S&P meaning borrowing (of which we have to do a huge amount for the foreseeable future) is getting even more expensive. Heard a professor on Newtalk getting annoyed saying that the Government need to stop the creative accounting. That sounds very worrying but I didn't hear the full thing so not sure what he was getting at. If the markets start to believe we aren't being straight with them (Anglo/IL&P deposit swaps for example) it is game over.

Interesting posts here on an economist's blog. Some reckon Anglo will ultimately cost over €35,000,000.
http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2010/08/25/sp-downgrade-irish-debt-put-on-negative-watch/ (http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2010/08/25/sp-downgrade-irish-debt-put-on-negative-watch/)

Also just reading Matt Cooper's book at the moment. He points out that despite Anglo's collapse Fitzpatrick was very thorough about getting securities for loans, for example Sean Quinn had to offer the Quinn Group as security hence the mess recently. I read this as meaning that those that owe Anglo money (except the Golden 10 which was a panic move) are probably screwed if Anglo go after them. As those people would certainly include most of corporate Ireland (and possibly include many politicians) it is obvious why some people would want to artificially keep it afloat. Of course the fact that keeping it afloat means that a couple of generations of taxpayers suffer job losses, loss of income and wealth doesn't seem to bother them.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Bogball XV on August 26, 2010, 10:46:24 AM
The problem is that the securities given on the loans are virtually worthless in many cases.  Mostly loans were secured to the asset being purchased and as we now know, agricultural land in Leitrim has a lesser market value than it once did!  The majority of these are with NAMA now anyway.  I was talking to someone involved in NAMA a while ago who reckoned that in a year or 2 when the fuss dies down a bit, NAMA will start to make deals with developers, that will involve writing off most of the monies due, whilst the developer, takes back the land and the now, much smaller loan.  It makes sense that this will happen as NAMA's remit is to try to recover as much as possible and there is no other way of doing this.
That takes us to personal guarantees, once again, whilst anglo is welcome to try and have these honoured, in most cases they are for nominal amounts as opposed to the amounts being loaned.  Even with that, they're mostly circumvented by the fact that wives, children etc probably hold title to any assets of value left.  The other problem with PG's is that the same guys have most likely given them to several banks, thus it's a legal minefield trying to ascertain who has title over anything.  In addition, trying to enforce PG's normally results in a legal battle, with all sorts of spurious arguments being used to avoid compliance (normally along the lines of not understanding the consequences etc).  Whilst the person who gave the guarantee will probably lose as the commercial court has little truck with such sob stories nowadays, whatever few quid they had left will probably be gone in legal fees
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: gerrykeegan on August 26, 2010, 10:54:17 AM
[quote

Interesting posts here on an economist's blog. Some reckon Anglo will ultimately cost over €35,000,000.
http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2010/08/25/sp-downgrade-irish-debt-put-on-negative-watch/ (http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2010/08/25/sp-downgrade-irish-debt-put-on-negative-watch/)

[/quote]

Muppet

If that was the final position we would all be very happy, I think the creative accounting is something you are at.


I am really shit at the quote function
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Shamrock Shore on August 26, 2010, 11:27:01 AM
Quote€35,000,000.

Sadly it may be 35,000,000,000
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: seafoid on August 26, 2010, 03:14:16 PM
Some of the bucks at irisheconomy.ie are talking about a default. It could get very messy.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on August 26, 2010, 09:46:10 PM
Quote from: Shamrock Shore on August 26, 2010, 11:27:01 AM
Quote€35,000,000.

Sadly it may be 35,000,000,000

Sorry typo, €35 Billion obviously.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on September 12, 2010, 02:19:51 PM
Cowen says he will know the cost of re-capitialising Anglo next month.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0912/anglo.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0912/anglo.html)

That effectively admits that he doesn't know how much it will cost and has never known. Fair play to him for committing the Irish taxpayer to a blank cheque likely to be over twice as costly as the Pakistan floods.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on September 12, 2010, 02:36:23 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0912/iceland.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0912/iceland.html)

QuoteIceland's former prime minister Geir Haarde and three ministers should be tried for negligence that led to the country's 2008 banking and financial meltdown, a parliamentary commission has said.

Now there is an idea.

Since the banking crisis began in earnest:

AIB - Chairman and CX gone
BOI - Chairman (Governor) and CX gone
IL&P - CX gone (Gillian Bowler still Chairperson)
IN - Chairman and CX gone
EBS - Chairman and CX gone
BOSI - Entire bank gone

Financial Regulator - Head man gone
Central Bank - Head man gone

Department of Finance - Minister is now Taoiseach
                                  - Secretary General gone

Bowler survived because her bank performed the best of the lot and she wasn't implicated in any of the Anglo dodgy deals, which the departed CX claims had approval at the highest level (he wasn't talking about his board).

That leaves Cowen. How has he not only survived but been promoted? All of the other shareholders/stakeholders in the financial institutions considered the positions of their officers untenable after the collapse of the financial sector. But the taxpayer, who will lose the most, apparently doesn't consider the position of the Minister responsible untenable.

We thoroughly deserve what we are going to get.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on September 13, 2010, 01:27:09 AM
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/we-must-discard-futile-delay-and-pray-strategy-2334554.html (http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/we-must-discard-futile-delay-and-pray-strategy-2334554.html)

Surprisingly good article.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Bogball XV on September 13, 2010, 11:53:20 AM
Quote from: muppet on September 13, 2010, 01:27:09 AM
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/we-must-discard-futile-delay-and-pray-strategy-2334554.html (http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/we-must-discard-futile-delay-and-pray-strategy-2334554.html)

Surprisingly good article.
yeah, very good article - most of it common sense, there's a fear that if the people in charge don't keep on spouting positive comments then things are going to get really bad - ffs, do they really think that people are so blind to reality, that analysts abroad can't tell that they constantly talk shite?  Do they not realise that the more rubbish you spout, the lower your credibility becomes?
I remember hearing lenno talk about how as soon as he was given the job, he was made aware by officials that his every word would be analysed and would move the markets...

The most interesting part of that article is how our leaders seem to think that we can keep on borrowing in order to pay ourselves, because soon, it'll all be okay.  I must have a look at the original business plan put forward to the EU in 2008 outlining just how we were going to manage our way out of deficits, I think that by about 2011 we were going to be getting back to almost a balanced budget and that by 2013 our tax take was forecast to be once again in excess of our expenditure  - interesting to see just how close we're coming to that!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Hardy on September 13, 2010, 12:42:42 PM
Don't miss the RTÉ "Freefall" documentary, as I had until I watched it on  RTÉ Player  (http://www.rte.ie/player/#v=1079867) last night. It's an excellent piece of work on the background to the bank guarantees, from the international banking crisis to Ireland's property bubble, poor regulation, etc. and the details of the meetings and negotiations leading to the guarantee(s).

I was really surprised at how good it was - nothing like the shoddy shite we've come to expect from RTÉ. (This was a third party production for RTÉ).  Part 2 of 2 tonight at 9:30, RTÉ1.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on September 18, 2010, 03:45:33 AM
 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-17/loonie-pares-gains-as-risk-appetite-wanes-on-european-debt-speculation.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-17/loonie-pares-gains-as-risk-appetite-wanes-on-european-debt-speculation.html)

Are we finally running out of rope?

This could be fun:
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSWLA316920100917 (http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSWLA316920100917)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on September 20, 2010, 05:18:06 PM
http://www.rte.ie/business/2010/0920/ntma.html (http://www.rte.ie/business/2010/0920/ntma.html)

If it doesn't go back down we will be goosed shortly.
If it continues to rise we are already goosed.
If there is any more bad news from the banks we are goosed.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Rossie11 on September 20, 2010, 05:53:48 PM
http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2010/09/20/capital-punishment-for-all

McWilliams most recent piece. Have we anyone in power that has the balls to do what he says regarding Anglo?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on September 20, 2010, 07:26:40 PM
Quote from: Rossie11 on September 20, 2010, 05:53:48 PM
http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2010/09/20/capital-punishment-for-all

McWilliams most recent piece. Have we anyone in power that has the balls to do what he says regarding Anglo?

Some interesting comments there Rossie:

"They will simply run out of reasons to believe a government that has been wrong about everything and has destroyed the economy".

"Taken together, it is easy to see that Ireland has run itself up a financial cul-de sac.

The only way out is to bring forward the crisis, rather than wait for it."

"If we don't face the crisis head on, the next few months will witness capital flight and the crisis will come to a head anyway. Better to get on with it."
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Hereiam on September 20, 2010, 08:40:36 PM
Can someone please explain to me why the dole has not be cut in the south. Surly this needs to be done or does the government realise that if they do this all hell could break loose.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Zapatista on September 20, 2010, 08:41:34 PM
Quote from: Hereiam on September 20, 2010, 08:40:36 PM
Can someone please explain to me why the dole has not be cut in the south. Surly this needs to be done or does the government realise that if they do this all hell could break loose.

It has been cut.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on September 20, 2010, 08:43:37 PM
Quote from: Hereiam on September 20, 2010, 08:40:36 PM
Can someone please explain to me why the dole has not be cut in the south. Surly this needs to be done or does the government realise that if they do this all hell could break loose.

FF backbenchers and some of the independent TDs needed to keep the government in place couldn't live with that. Failure to do as you say (along with the unenforceable the Croke Park Agreement) are accelerating the crisis though so it might be a positive. When the IMF/EU arrive the cuts will be savage but FF can point at the outsiders who have done it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on September 20, 2010, 09:03:25 PM
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2008/11/06/afx5656942.html (http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2008/11/06/afx5656942.html)

The article above gives some details of the terms the IMF set when it went into Hungary a couple of years ago. It would be different here as we are in the euro but it is worth looking at as it might not be as bad as people think (yes I lifted it from p.ie).

Here are a few:

[I presume months are 4 weeks rather than calendar months which creates a 13th month]

* Fiscal responsibility law submitted to parliament, to be passed by end-2008.

* Planned legislation to strengthen the emergency powers of the Financial Services Authority.

* Primary government spending to fall by 2 percentage points of GDP next year through:

(1) freezing public sector wages in nominal terms

(2) scrapping 13th month wages in the public sector

(3) limiting 13th month pensions to 80,000 forints

(4) scrapping 13th month pension payments for early retirees

(5) postponing the indexation of some social benefits

(6) trimming operating expenses of ministries.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: seafoid on September 20, 2010, 09:12:52 PM
I don't think there is any immediate chance of the IMF coming in. The Government still has some time and rope left but is another crash away from a default. There should be some finality on  banking costs by the end of the year which will bring the spread down provided the Government gets its communications house in order. The PR effort since the beginning of august has been very shoddy.   

Longer term if there is no growth there is no hope of meeting the 3% budget deficit target by 2014. By then the Eurozone could be in deep doo doo anyway in which case it might not make much difference.

Surely Mayo could seize the opportunity and employ some talented Roma sportsmen with the aim of an all-Ireland by the time the shit hits the fan in 2014.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Zapatista on September 20, 2010, 09:26:11 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 20, 2010, 09:12:52 PM
I don't think there is any immediate chance of the IMF coming in. The Government still has some time and rope left but is another crash away from a default. There should be some finality on  banking costs by the end of the year

What makes you think that judging by the cost of borrowing today?

Quote from: seafoid on September 20, 2010, 09:12:52 PMThe PR effort since the beginning of august has been very shoddy.   

Lack of decision and wrong decision shouldn't be described as PR.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on September 20, 2010, 09:28:27 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 20, 2010, 09:12:52 PM
I don't think there is any immediate chance of the IMF coming in. The Government still has some time and rope left but is another crash away from a default. There should be some finality on  banking costs by the end of the year which will bring the spread down provided the Government gets its communications house in order. The PR effort since the beginning of august has been very shoddy.   

Longer term if there is no growth there is no hope of meeting the 3% budget deficit target by 2014. By then the Eurozone could be in deep doo doo anyway in which case it might not make much difference.

Surely Mayo could seize the opportunity and employ some talented Roma sportsmen with the aim of an all-Ireland by the time the shit hits the fan in 2014.

I presume you are talking mainly about Anglo. You are assuming the news coming next month is not worse than the market expects.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: seafoid on September 21, 2010, 09:17:07 AM
Quote from: muppet on September 20, 2010, 09:28:27 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 20, 2010, 09:12:52 PM
I don't think there is any immediate chance of the IMF coming in. The Government still has some time and rope left but is another crash away from a default. There should be some finality on  banking costs by the end of the year which will bring the spread down provided the Government gets its communications house in order. The PR effort since the beginning of august has been very shoddy.   

Longer term if there is no growth there is no hope of meeting the 3% budget deficit target by 2014. By then the Eurozone could be in deep doo doo anyway in which case it might not make much difference.

Surely Mayo could seize the opportunity and employ some talented Roma sportsmen with the aim of an all-Ireland by the time the shit hits the fan in 2014.

I presume you are talking mainly about Anglo. You are assuming the news coming next month is not worse than the market expects.

Even if were is another couple of billion it wouldn't be enough to drive the country into immediate insolvency. What the markets want is more clarity on what the final cost is going to be and the spread is a way of putting pressure on the government to get its act together.  Apparently the current spread prices in a 30% chance of default over the next 5 years. I don't think Ireland will be allowed to default. Contagion effects would be shocking for Core EU banks and insurance cos who are to be protected at all costs. There is plenty of fat that could be cut in Ireland before a default would happen. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on September 21, 2010, 10:54:29 AM
Quote from: seafoid on September 21, 2010, 09:17:07 AM
There is plenty of fat that could be cut in Ireland before a default would happen.

But this is exactly the point. The Government won't make the cuts for any number of political reasons. For example if the budget is too tough (for back-benchers, Healy-Rae etc) the Government is likely to fall. Meanwhile look at the Croke Park agreement whereby the Government (albeit with a doomsday caveat) agreed to no further pay cuts in the public service and no compulsory redundancies. Where are they going to get the money if the public service isn't touched? Massive tax increases seems the most likely but that won't get too far politically either.

The likely political way out of this mess is to bring in an outside agency to inflict the pain that they don't have the balls to serve up themselves.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: seafoid on September 21, 2010, 11:53:35 AM
The IMF would be brutal, the modern day equivalent of Oliver Cromwell. Wishing them in to me seems suicidal. They would slash social welfare and leave the well off untouched. There would be a lot of unnecessary misery.

The Croke Park Agreement will have to be looked at again. FF are doomed anyway and whoever replaces them will have to look at everything anew. Spending this year is €55bn - anyone know what it was 10 years ago ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on September 21, 2010, 02:41:49 PM
http://www.cso.ie/statistics/imfsummaryire.htm (http://www.cso.ie/statistics/imfsummaryire.htm)

Dunno about 10 years ago but here are some interesting figures:





General Government or Public Service Operations- 2009- 2008
Revenue Fiscal Sector52,009M59,782M
Expenditure Fiscal Sector75,450M72,981M
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: seafoid on September 21, 2010, 06:23:00 PM
That must be in Punts

I think GDP was about half of what it is now in 2000 and that the govt spending as a % of GDP was around 36% in 2000 and the rate is around the same today so spending has doubled in 10 years and meanwhile the tax take has collapsed.

 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: seafoid on September 22, 2010, 01:44:23 PM
This thread is a very valuable resource . looking at the first few pages it is clear that everything that could go wrong did go wrong. The bank guaranteee, Anglo nationalisation, the collapse in tax revenues, the house price crash. And there is still more to come. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on September 23, 2010, 03:59:59 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 22, 2010, 01:44:23 PM
This thread is a very valuable resource . looking at the first few pages it is clear that everything that could go wrong did go wrong. The bank guaranteee, Anglo nationalisation, the collapse in tax revenues, the house price crash. And there is still more to come.

AIB price over the last 3 months (note: short selling is banned thankfully or it would probably be gone)

(http://ichart.europe.yahoo.com/c/3m/a/aib.ir)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: seafoid on September 23, 2010, 04:16:01 PM
ILPM and BoI are showing the same trend over 6 months.

The government can't afford to bail out the private capital in Anglo Irish . Simple as that.

This quote was on the Guardian website :

"The country and its society are now being systematically wrecked for some abstract moralistic ideal regarding fiscal prudence, that the markets clearly don't believe any more. "

Check out the shift in 10 year bond rates since last year's all-ireland . 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GIGB10YR:IND
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on September 23, 2010, 04:55:20 PM
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ireland-portugal-default-insurance-costs-jump-2010-09-23

Won't pretend to understand this but the cost of insuring our bonds hitting records day can't be good.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: seafoid on September 23, 2010, 05:27:37 PM
The markets are not happy with the economic medicine they were screaming for a few months ago. Surprisingly, savage cuts to government spending leads to joblessness which reduces economic growth and can even contract the economy. Who woulda thunk ? 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: bcarrier on September 23, 2010, 05:34:22 PM
There is some bizarre stuff going on ....how can Irish primary bond sales be oversubscribed while the secondary market tanks ?

and interesting article here ...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/stephanieflanders/2010/09/a_tale_of_two_borrowers.html

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on September 23, 2010, 06:18:21 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on September 23, 2010, 05:34:22 PM
There is some bizarre stuff going on ....how can Irish primary bond sales be oversubscribed while the secondary market tanks ?

and interesting article here ...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/stephanieflanders/2010/09/a_tale_of_two_borrowers.html

What's fascinating about the Irish situation is that it has rather little to do with the size of the deficit - or a government failure to take tough action. In fact, as I have written in the past, Ireland was the first country in Europe to announce massive spending cuts and tax rises.

What's worrying investors now isn't the deficit in itself but the huge debts sitting in the financial sector - and how many of them the government will ultimately be forced to honour. At the last count, the government's "contingent liability" in the banking system - the stock of debts that it has guaranteed stood at 153bn euros - nearly 95% of Irish GDP.


And that is without knowing the final figure at Anglo. But no worries, Seanie is alright.

Heard today a guy got mortgage approval for a house. After 4 weeks of approval, signing contracts etc the bank sent a valuer who decided the price had fallen in the 4 weeks and the bank would only give a mortgage on the valuer's estimate. The same banks who threw fuel on the property fire a few years ago are now nuking any chance of stopping the crash.

I think it is time the Irish public did something serious and not involving any political or trade union type movement as none really have any credibility anymore. What about picking a date (say December 1st) and getting as many people as possible (ideally everyone still paying their mortgages) to commit to stopping their mortgage repayments after that date unless:

1: Every Government minister between 2000 - present, still in Government, resigns immediately;
2: National Government formed to pass emergency legislation and emergency budget;
3: Massive levy/tax whatever is legal on Natural Gas production (note to Shell: there is no longer such thing as a free lunch even in this corrupt country);
4: Emergency legislation to extract every possible cent from all of those who owe Anglo/INBS etc, no matter who they are;
5: Emergency legislation making negligence and reckless behaviour of Boards/Executives of financial institutions and politicians a criminal offense (treason springs to mind) enforceable retrospectively;
6: Nationalise all banks and set national mortgage interest rate (for those not on fixed or tracker) in the national interest and stop the banks from screwing up the economy completely;
7: When all the above is done - general election.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Rossfan on September 23, 2010, 07:43:48 PM
None of the above will happen as it would hurt all FF's mates from the Galway tent days.
The whole fcukin guarantee/bail out etc was all to save those cnuts from taking the medicine they deseved from foolish Yukon gold rush type investments in the ridiculous propery bubble which was fuelled by FF's tax incentives.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: armaghniac on September 23, 2010, 07:55:02 PM
Quote6: Nationalise all banks and set national mortgage interest rate (for those not on fixed or tracker) in the national interest and stop the banks from screwing up the economy completely;

This sounds good, but if the government is borrowing at 6% to lend it out at 3% then the country really will be banjaxed.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on September 23, 2010, 07:57:36 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on September 23, 2010, 07:55:02 PM
Quote6: Nationalise all banks and set national mortgage interest rate (for those not on fixed or tracker) in the national interest and stop the banks from screwing up the economy completely;

This sounds good, but if the government is borrowing at 6% to lend it out at 3% then the country really will be banjaxed.

Two different borrowings, although I think what actually happened at the top of the boom wasn't much better. Someone here will know more but I think the banks borrowed at LIBOR and gave trackers on the ECB. Is that correct?

Meanwhile our Government are borrowing at 6.5% and lending to Greece at 5%.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Zapatista on September 23, 2010, 11:54:24 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 23, 2010, 06:18:21 PM
I think it is time the Irish public did something serious and not involving any political or trade union type movement as none really have any credibility anymore. What about picking a date (say December 1st) and getting as many people as possible (ideally everyone still paying their mortgages) to commit to stopping their mortgage repayments after that date unless:

1: Every Government minister between 2000 - present, still in Government, resigns immediately;
2: National Government formed to pass emergency legislation and emergency budget;
3: Massive levy/tax whatever is legal on Natural Gas production (note to Shell: there is no longer such thing as a free lunch even in this corrupt country);
4: Emergency legislation to extract every possible cent from all of those who owe Anglo/INBS etc, no matter who they are;
5: Emergency legislation making negligence and reckless behaviour of Boards/Executives of financial institutions and politicians a criminal offense (treason springs to mind) enforceable retrospectively;
6: Nationalise all banks and set national mortgage interest rate (for those not on fixed or tracker) in the national interest and stop the banks from screwing up the economy completely;
7: When all the above is done - general election.

I'm with you on that taking to the streets. I say we picket every Government office in every town in the Country. How about a big rally on Cultchie day out?

Who will pass the legislation if the Government resign? It will automatically spring an election.

I'd even support a more direct campaign steal Brian Lenihans passport or something. I'd let the tyres down on John Gormleys bike to keep him house bound and send Cowen to Newry to keep his head down while he dries out. I honestly think that it is our fear of being caught with facing our own problems that is keeping us quiet. Huge personal debts have (many of) us shackled and afraid to open our mouths in case we upset the applecart and are called on it. I think it's too late for all that. We need to stop the bleed feed the FF vampires before it's too late. The longer they have to use our money to fix their problems the more difficulties we will face. It's long past time we made a decision on this as a Nation.

Cahrlie McGreevy is some boy >:(
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on September 27, 2010, 01:32:24 PM
Very long article but an excellent explanation of the Greece situation and why the markets are so jittery. Of course it is hard to read it without your mind wandering back to Anglo.

http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2010/10/greeks-bearing-bonds-201010?currentPage=7 (http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2010/10/greeks-bearing-bonds-201010?currentPage=7)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on September 27, 2010, 06:49:36 PM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2010/09/why_ireland_cant_afford_to_pun.html (http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2010/09/why_ireland_cant_afford_to_pun.html)

Quote"What makes me angry is those who have brought us to this place"

Quote from none other than Brian Lenihan, without a hint of irony apparently.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Bogball XV on September 27, 2010, 10:53:47 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 23, 2010, 06:18:21 PM
What's fascinating about the Irish situation is that it has rather little to do with the size of the deficit - or a government failure to take tough action. In fact, as I have written in the past, Ireland was the first country in Europe to announce massive spending cuts and tax rises.

What's worrying investors now isn't the deficit in itself but the huge debts sitting in the financial sector - and how many of them the government will ultimately be forced to honour. At the last count, the government's "contingent liability" in the banking system - the stock of debts that it has guaranteed stood at 153bn euros - nearly 95% of Irish GDP.


That's as may be but in the long run our national debt will be more than the €163BN.  We have the situation wherein our annual deficit is running at 25Bn a year and our target of balancing it by 2013 will not happen without either massive increases in tax take (in reality this is only obtainable if the economy turns around completely) or huge, huge cuts in expenditure (and I appreciate the destimulising effect of both increased taxes and expenditure cuts).

We regularly hear that the irish govt have taken tough decisions, this is normally spouted by ffer's who are trying to convince everyone that they're in some way competent and by outside observers who look at the figures without knowing the story behind them.  For example, hearing that public servants have had their salaries cut by about 7% sounds good, if you don't know that they're the highest paid in europe and so on.  Do any of you know of any tough decisions that have been taken so far?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: PadraicHenryPearse on September 28, 2010, 02:34:44 AM
Are we being used?  I was wondering with all the doom and gloom our last bond issue was oversubcribed even after the rate climbed to its highest 6.5%. Could people be talking Ireland down so that the rate increases then they can get bonds with better returns safe in the knowledge that we will never be allow to fail ala Greece. All the time we are getting screwed.

I don't know much about it so i could be way off the mark but if they are not doing this it seems a good way to make some extra money.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: seafoid on September 28, 2010, 11:10:24 AM
I saw in the FT yesterday that Ireland is due another 6.5% of GDP tightening ie cuts over the next 2 years. The surgery is intended to reduce the patient's dependence on deficits but looks likely to kill him before the deficit reduces to the target level.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Zapatista on September 28, 2010, 12:14:35 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 28, 2010, 11:10:24 AM
I saw in the FT yesterday that Ireland is due another 6.5% of GDP tightening ie cuts over the next 2 years. The surgery is intended to reduce the patient's dependence on deficits but looks likely to kill him before the deficit reduces to the target level.

What were you saying earlier about 7%

http://twitter.com/davidmcw

where r yeild now, above 7%
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: whiskeysteve on September 28, 2010, 12:24:30 PM
I like his latest tweet:

estb' will say no worries we have enough money till march.like a boozer saying at closing no worries i have a bag o cans stashed at home!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Hereiam on September 28, 2010, 12:38:34 PM
http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2010/09/27/recovery-is-going-to-be-local (http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2010/09/27/recovery-is-going-to-be-local)

Intresting read. Iceland seemed to have done the right thing, but will the brits and others hold this against them in the future.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Zapatista on September 28, 2010, 12:48:52 PM
Quote from: Hereiam on September 28, 2010, 12:38:34 PM
http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2010/09/27/recovery-is-going-to-be-local (http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2010/09/27/recovery-is-going-to-be-local)

Intresting read. Iceland seemed to have done the right thing, but will the brits and others hold this against them in the future.

A new Government with no skeletons in the closet to thank. Here on the other hand.........
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: seafoid on September 28, 2010, 02:37:25 PM
Another development of note

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/business-news/new-york-hedge-funds-bet-against-republic-of-ireland-14959638.html
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Bogball XV on September 28, 2010, 03:22:36 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 28, 2010, 02:37:25 PM
Another development of note

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/business-news/new-york-hedge-funds-bet-against-republic-of-ireland-14959638.html
ah yeah, here we go again - it's all the fault of the big bad speculators.

Anyone remember this:

Quote
Some of the consortium are incensed by the recent short selling of Anglo shares by stockbrokers in Dublin and London and are determined to punish the offending brokers.

Last night one member told the Sunday Independent: "We are going to teach the brokers and hedge funds that damaged the bank a salutary lesson. It is our bank, it has an entrepreneurial culture. They will come out of this with their fingers burned."

Shares in Anglo have tanked in recent weeks, due largely to short selling. They plunged from a 12-month high of €17.53 to below €7 at one point.

The Financial Regulator has launched an investigation into dealings in the stock, especially around the St Patrick's Day holiday when the shares were assaulted by sellers.


http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/anglo-irish-clients-plan-8364500m-revenge-fund-1360423.html
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on September 28, 2010, 03:33:50 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on September 28, 2010, 03:22:36 PM
Last night one member told the Sunday Independent: "We are going to teach the brokers and hedge funds that damaged the bank a salutary lesson. They will come out of this with their fingers burned."

This was the Golden Circle of 10. So much for the hedge funds getting their fingers burned, thanks to Lenny the taxpayers are getting cremated. S&P said today that the final bill for Anglo could be €35,000,000,000 or more.

Looking back at that doesn't it demonstrate the spectacular arrogance of those involved? They were going to teach Wall Street a lesson! Wall Street are now shorting our Government Bonds just like they did with Anglo back then. Hold on tight it is going to be a bumpy ride.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: seafoid on September 28, 2010, 03:40:10 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on September 28, 2010, 03:22:36 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 28, 2010, 02:37:25 PM
Another development of note

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/business-news/new-york-hedge-funds-bet-against-republic-of-ireland-14959638.html
ah yeah, here we go again - it's all the fault of the big bad speculators.


The Irish situation is a long way from default.  It's not as if there's any logic to how the markets work or that prices reflect all known info at all times.  If hedge funds looking for a quick buck push the country over the cliff it would be appalling. There are enough people suffering in the country today without a crowd of rich bastards making money from it.  Higher interest rates are already crippling the banks.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on September 28, 2010, 03:44:51 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 28, 2010, 03:40:10 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on September 28, 2010, 03:22:36 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 28, 2010, 02:37:25 PM
Another development of note

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/business-news/new-york-hedge-funds-bet-against-republic-of-ireland-14959638.html
ah yeah, here we go again - it's all the fault of the big bad speculators.


The Irish situation is a long way from default.  It's not as if there's any logic to how the markets work or that prices reflect all known info at all times.  If hedge funds looking for a quick buck push the country over the cliff it would be appalling. There are enough people suffering in the country today without a crowd of rich b**tards making money from it.  Higher interest rates are already crippling the banks.

Is it possible that the interest rates are being driven up because of speculation that the Government is considering re-negotiating some of the Anglo debt? In other words the markets are saying don't even think about not paying us back or we will screw you completely, here are some higher interest rates to help you understand.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: seafoid on September 28, 2010, 04:00:40 PM
The FT says the worries that Anglo bondholders might have to chip in a pay for a few ham sandwiches from that big party they were dancing at last night which resulted in the building experiencing some subsidence - this is freaking out the markets and is being linked to wider worries about the stability of the Eurozone and causing prices of financials in general to fall.

It is all being magnified and bet on and nobody is in charge and it could go any way. Unless miraculously some trader somewhere decides it is "risk on" again and all the money piles into India and China and risky assets and suddenly Irish bonds look like incredible value.   

The efficient markets theory is in shreds.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on September 28, 2010, 04:04:17 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0928/economy1.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0928/economy1.html)

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Bogball XV on September 28, 2010, 05:22:49 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 28, 2010, 04:00:40 PMThe efficient markets theory is in shreds.
Or maybe it's just that we don't have access to information that some other people do.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on September 28, 2010, 05:35:41 PM
Am I correct in saying that one of the main reasons for guaranteeing the banks was so that they could borrow money at normal interest rates?
Title: No comment
Post by: muppet on September 28, 2010, 05:55:27 PM
Bank Of Ireland 5 day chart:

(http://uk.ichart.yahoo.com/w?s=BIR.IR)

Allied Irish Banks 5 day chart:

(http://uk.ichart.yahoo.com/w?s=AIB.IR)


Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Bogball XV on September 28, 2010, 07:05:17 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 28, 2010, 05:35:41 PM
Am I correct in saying that one of the main reasons for guaranteeing the banks was so that they could borrow money at normal interest rates?
yes and no, the main reason was because we needed someone to lend them money to roll over the short term debt that was coming due, it was presumed that since the new debt would be essentially sovereign debt then it would be at pretty much the same rate as sovereign debt.  That presumption turned out to be reasonably accurate, unfortunately that's because the sovereign debt rate increased to meet the bank rates!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Zapatista on September 29, 2010, 08:19:50 AM
Fmr Iceland PM facing charges over bank crisis

Iceland's parliament has voted to bring court charges for negligence against former Prime Minister Geir Haarde, who led the country during events leading to the country's banking collapse in 2008.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0929/iceland.html

Now that's how you restore confidence with the public and in the markets.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: seafoid on September 29, 2010, 10:06:51 AM
from the FT

Ireland will unveil on Thursday a fresh taxpayer-funded recapitalisation of Anglo Irish Bank, the institution at the centre of the country's property meltdown, amid rising alarm over the country's financial health.  Ireland's cost of borrowing on Tuesday hit record levels with yields on 10-year government bonds jumping 25 basis points to 6.72 per cent.
Irish bond yields for 10-year debt are at similar levels to Greece at the start of April – only a month before Athens was forced to turn to the international community for loans.
The rise in yields came in spite of buying from the European Central Bank to help stabilise the markets, according to traders, as investors worried that the cost of bailing out Anglo Irish and other financial institutions would be higher than first thought.
The central bank's additional capital injection is expected to be about €5bn (£4.3bn). That would bring the bail-out costs for Anglo Irish to €30bn, shy of the €35bn forecast by credit rating agency Standard & Poor's.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on September 29, 2010, 11:57:35 AM
http://www.rte.ie/player/#v=1081462 (http://www.rte.ie/player/#v=1081462)

Prime Time last night.

I am too annoyed to even bother commenting.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on September 29, 2010, 02:38:09 PM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-29/irish-banks-hooked-on-ecb-cure-as-lenihan-s-financing-fails-euro-credit.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-29/irish-banks-hooked-on-ecb-cure-as-lenihan-s-financing-fails-euro-credit.html)

The Dail are currently debating whether or not to extend the guarantee. This is being done against a backdrop of not knowing how much Anglo or INBS will cost us. Our parliament is being asked to re-write the same blank cheque that has almost bankrupted us. Meanwhile all the gamblers will get their money back.

The man in the concrete truck might be right.

Edit: Ireland to pump 5.0 bln into Anglo (http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jPZj7Zg2PFHINBuL6w2CsqvptPxA?docId=CNG.364eb12be2ad156e8df47022776e573c.4b1)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Zapatista on September 29, 2010, 03:32:25 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 29, 2010, 02:38:09 PM
Edit: Ireland to pump 5.0 bln into Anglo (http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jPZj7Zg2PFHINBuL6w2CsqvptPxA?docId=CNG.364eb12be2ad156e8df47022776e573c.4b1)

Will a total of 30bn be enough?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Bogball XV on September 30, 2010, 09:32:26 AM
Quote from: Zapatista on September 29, 2010, 03:32:25 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 29, 2010, 02:38:09 PM
Will a total of 30bn be enough?

Who knows?  I'd very much doubt it, i think that's just the losses realised on the transfers to NAMA, then we'll have to see how much is lost by NAMA (or of course a profit could be realised).

As for AIB being nationalised, this could have been done lock stock and barrel in Jan/Feb 2009 when the entire stock of the bank would have cost about 300M, but we didn't want to scare the markets.   Now, I know that significant capital would still have to have been pumped in, but it would have been cheaper, NAMA would not have been needed and the state would benefit from for example AIB's profits for the past year, their profits from the sale of their polish and US assets etc etc etc.

The really scary thing about this morning's announcement was that bond auctions have been cancelled in the hope that things settle down by Jan/Feb.  Imo that increases the likelihood that the IMF will have to be called upon for a bailout.  The next budget is likely to be savage, and it has to be at this stage, I don't see any other way.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Declan on September 30, 2010, 09:36:36 AM
Well folks the big day arrived:

Some interesting facts:
1.The guarantee of existing bank debt prevented the Government restructuring Anglo Irish in the final quarter of 2008 before it acquired the bank.
Contrast that with what was done with the floundering General Motors in the US.
The Obama auto industry taskforce pushed GM into bankruptcy in June 2009, wiping out common stockholders and squeezing the holders of $27bn in GM bond debt into accepting a 10% share of the new GM. Bondholders also got warrants to buy more stock in a New GM if its future value exceeds $15bn, and again if it exceeds $30bn.That old bond debt, along with old lawsuits, contracts and other trash, was dumped into Old GM, or Motors Liquidation as it is called.
All this happened in "the land of the free."

2.Irish Bank Rescue: Anglo Irish cost to rise to at least €29.3bn; AIB requires €3bn in additional capital; Irish Nationwide to receive €2.7bn; Ireland's Debt/GDP ratio to rise to 98.6% in 2010.

3. To date AIB has transferred just over €6bn. of loan assets to NAMA at an aggregate discount of 45%.  NAMA has reviewed the quality of loans still to transfer from AIB and has estimated discount to be applied to the remaining €13.5bn. of  loans at 60%. 
A major factor in this increased discount for AIB has been the predominance of land bank loans, many of which were speculative investments that now have little value.
In view of the increased NAMA discount the Central Bank has concluded that an additional amount of €3bn will be required. This brings the new total capital requirement for AIB, after deducting the capital generated on the sale of its Polish subsidiary, to €7.9bn.

Frightening stuff

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Bogball XV on September 30, 2010, 09:58:08 AM
Quote from: Declan on September 30, 2010, 09:36:36 AM
Well folks the big day arrived:

Some interesting facts:
1.The guarantee of existing bank debt prevented the Government restructuring Anglo Irish in the final quarter of 2008 before it acquired the bank.
Contrast that with what was done with the floundering General Motors in the US.
The Obama auto industry taskforce pushed GM into bankruptcy in June 2009, wiping out common stockholders and squeezing the holders of $27bn in GM bond debt into accepting a 10% share of the new GM. Bondholders also got warrants to buy more stock in a New GM if its future value exceeds $15bn, and again if it exceeds $30bn.That old bond debt, along with old lawsuits, contracts and other trash, was dumped into Old GM, or Motors Liquidation as it is called.
All this happened in "the land of the free."

What really galls me is that Lenihan etc regularly come out and defend the guarantee (and in fact, fg also supported it back in 2008 (ah yes, the financial genius of Richard Bruton).  At this stage, would they at least admit that it was a catastrophically bad decision.  I rarely listen to any of the commentary any more as the arrogance angers me
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: seafoid on September 30, 2010, 10:36:42 AM
AIB could deteriorate even further. At the moment BoI is supposedly safe but how long will that last?   This could go on for ages.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Declan on September 30, 2010, 11:06:32 AM
Quotebut how long will that last?   This could go on for ages.

ANALYSIS: The Anglo base case assumes a NAMA haircut of 67% for remaining tranches (compares with an average 58% in tranches 1 and 2). The stress calculation increases this to 70%. In relation to stress-testing non-NAMA loans, these have been reviewed from an individual loan and a portfolio perspective. The former assumes a 70% peak to trough decline in Irish commercial property prices, with prices only recovering to 57% of their peak level out to 2020. The macro approach assumes a 65% fall with no recovery out to 2020.
So what are the immediate implications for the Irish sovereign? The final estimate of the cost is huge. We estimate that the total gross cost will be €50bn, not excluding the purchase of NAMA loans (which will be c.€40bn). Assuming the costs of Anglo and Irish Nationwide are included in the deficit this year, the deficit will now increase to 32% of GDP, before falling to less than 10% in 2011. This will result in the general government debt level rising to c.100% of GDP by the end of the year and 115% by 2014.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: seafoid on September 30, 2010, 11:29:24 AM
I'd like to see the assumptions backing that 115% by 2014. If there are unrealistic growth assumptions built in there and the next 4 years of cuts further damage the economy as they are likely to do, reducing GDP and the denominator, the 115% of GDP could suddenly get very close to the danger zone where further debt is impossible to sell . 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Declan on September 30, 2010, 12:08:55 PM
QuoteIf there are unrealistic growth assumptions built in there

But sure don't we know that all the growth assumptions and other figures given by economic analysts have been right on the money in the past  ;) ;) 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Bogball XV on September 30, 2010, 12:33:36 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 30, 2010, 11:29:24 AM
I'd like to see the assumptions backing that 115% by 2014. If there are unrealistic growth assumptions built in there and the next 4 years of cuts further damage the economy as they are likely to do, reducing GDP and the denominator, the 115% of GDP could suddenly get very close to the danger zone where further debt is impossible to sell .
I'm not sure of the assumptins either, but we do know they've been hopelessly optimistic about them all the time.  I presume that now that there are some economists working in the department they'll realise that cuts do have a much greater impact than just the initial cut itself.
Personally I don't see any way around making savage cuts, but I'm not the most innovative or creative - what do you or any other posters think?  Is there any other way?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Rois on September 30, 2010, 12:45:53 PM
Interesting developments in terms of my workload anyway - my Dublin secondment will be shorter than I'd imagined as they've raised the exposure floor from €5m to €20m.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: FermGael on September 30, 2010, 01:01:37 PM
Bogball Would a squeeze on the Anglo bondholders not have been a more prudent approach from the start or even now??

Why is Leinhan seemingly so afraid of them??

I would say these latest figures mean the Croke Park deal is out the window

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: seafoid on September 30, 2010, 01:27:57 PM
Ferm Gael

Lenihan is taking orders from Brussels. Senior bondholders are untouchable.

This was on the guardian website

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/sep/30/anglo-irish-bank-what-the-experts-say

Such sad news about Allied Irish; having sold its Polish operation for €2.5bn (£2.14bn) and its London operation for €1.1bn this former pillar of Irish financial society finds itself short of working capital. The original estimate for fresh capital was €7.4bn, so the government has had to stump up €3bn. Irish bonds have now been downgraded to CCC status. Irish 10-year bonds were trading last night 456 basis points above bunds which yield 2.2%. This cost of borrowing for Ireland beggars belief. You have to wonder how long Fianna Fáil can last. They've held off having three by-elections for the best part of the year. There is little doubt that had these by-elections been held the government would have fallen. European and world leaders hold Messrs Cowan and Lenihan in significantly higher regard compared to the electorate. Voters, not surprisingly, are incandescent with rage.
How Ireland will manage to dig itself out of the manure will remain the eighth wonder of the world. Ireland needs growth. Where does it come from? The strength of the euro stands against it. Though favourable taxation towards international corporations to manufacture and export goods from Ireland is a huge help and exports are going well, Ireland remains a small country of 3.5 million people and clearly this isn't enough to regenerate the economy. Roughly 20% of the workforce is employed in the public sector. Services of this sector are declining by the day. How much longer can they be expected to take cuts in salary and reductions in pensions?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Bogball XV on September 30, 2010, 02:22:56 PM
Quote from: FermGael on September 30, 2010, 01:01:37 PM
Bogball Would a squeeze on the Anglo bondholders not have been a more prudent approach from the start or even now??

Why is Leinhan seemingly so afraid of them??

I would say these latest figures mean the Croke Park deal is out the window
From the start yes, but once the guarantee was given that couldn't be done with any conviction.  We should never have had any exposure to the anglo bondholders, but now, if we try and put a squeeze on them in any way they can easily say, grand, you're defaulting on your guarantee and that'd be it - we'd be well and truly fcuked, not to mention that we'd eventually have to pay them as we have already promised to do so, and whether that be after a lengthy legal battle or before means nowt.

That aside, the anglo bail out money is significant, but not our biggest problem.  Our problem is that we are running a 25Bn odd annual deficit on our current spending v current income.  Bear in mind that annual revenue is circa 33Bn at present.  This was supposed to be almost balanced by 2013, now we hear them say 2014, but as seafoid pointed out, where the fcuk are they getting their figures from?

Basically each € taken out of the economy in public spending has a massive impact on growth, effectively destimulising the economy further and creating more unemployment etc.  This of course impacts on expenditure in that more people require welfare, medical cards etc.  It also impacts revenue in that fewer people are in employment with resulting drops in prsi/paye/vat etc.  That's a bit simplistic but presumably they've economists on big computers making up huge models of the impact of each € cut in spending.

The problem is that if we don't cut spending we have to borrow more to fund our deficit, but who will lend us more money?  We're not exactly an attractive prospect at present, what we have been doing recently is going to the local lone sharks (no offence LS if you're reading this) who're happy to lend as they get a decent rate of interest, and they reckon that the ECB will come good if we really need them (think rich parents willing to bail the prodigal son out before his fingers are cut off).
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Declan on September 30, 2010, 02:43:58 PM
Latest research note from Danske bank

Ireland's central bank has put a EUR29.3bn (18% of GDP) price on bailing out Anglo Irish Bank and EUR34bn (21% of GDP) under a worst-case scenario.

As a result of the large bank restructuring costs, the government deficit is set to reach 32% of GDP in 2010.
We project the debt will peak at c120% of GDP in 2014 if everything goes well. In an alternative 'no growth' scenario, debt could peak at 147% of GDP in 2016.
There are negative risks to these estimates as no bank restructuring costs are accounted for beyond 2010.
Ireland is fully funded until late June 2011 and has decided not to proceed with the bond auctions scheduled for October and November.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: seafoid on September 30, 2010, 03:18:24 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on September 30, 2010, 02:22:56 PM
Quote from: FermGael on September 30, 2010, 01:01:37 PM
Bogball Would a squeeze on the Anglo bondholders not have been a more prudent approach from the start or even now??

Why is Leinhan seemingly so afraid of them??

I would say these latest figures mean the Croke Park deal is out the window
From the start yes, but once the guarantee was given that couldn't be done with any conviction.  We should never have had any exposure to the anglo bondholders, but now, if we try and put a squeeze on them in any way they can easily say, grand, you're defaulting on your guarantee and that'd be it - we'd be well and truly fcuked, not to mention that we'd eventually have to pay them as we have already promised to do so, and whether that be after a lengthy legal battle or before means nowt.

That aside, the anglo bail out money is significant, but not our biggest problem.  Our problem is that we are running a 25Bn odd annual deficit on our current spending v current income.  Bear in mind that annual revenue is circa 33Bn at present. 

Bogball- where are you getting that 33bn in tax from? My understanding is that income is around 70bn vs tax of 50bn.   It is hard to see the current strategy working out. The bank situation deteriorates and that means more capital injections from the Govt which leads to more cuts which depress the economy which reduces GNP which increases the ratio of the deficit to GNP which increases bond yields which leads to more cuts which depress the economy which leads to more bank losses agus mar sin ar aghaidh.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: fearglasmor on September 30, 2010, 04:02:19 PM
I left this country after coming out of college in 1986, and this was not emigration by choice.
I came home in 1991  (having missed out on my best playing days) and have been lucky to live here through 17 pretty good years.

Now I have a daughter in 2nd year and another in national school.

Should I be encourageing them to learn as many languages as possible and get the hell out of here as soon as they can.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: MCMLX on September 30, 2010, 04:06:38 PM
Quote from: fearglasmor on September 30, 2010, 04:02:19 PM
Should I be encourageing them to learn as many languages as possible and get the hell out of here as soon as they can.

Yes.

Can anyone explain why the Irish Gov felt the need to bail out these banks in the first place, why couldnt they let them go bust, surely it would have been the cheaper option.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Fear ón Srath Bán on September 30, 2010, 04:16:55 PM
Quote from: MCMLX on September 30, 2010, 04:06:38 PM
Can anyone explain why the Irish Gov felt the need to bail out these banks in the first place, why couldnt they let them go bust, surely it would have been the cheaper option.

Sure. If your bosom and drinking buddies, your partners in mass deception and crime, your cronies in the golden circle, who have kept you in the cocooned and festooned luxury to which you have long ago become accustomed, if they were going to be exposed for the crooks that they were, would you have let them go to the wall?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on September 30, 2010, 04:20:50 PM
Quote from: Fear ón Srath Bán on September 30, 2010, 04:16:55 PM
Quote from: MCMLX on September 30, 2010, 04:06:38 PM
Can anyone explain why the Irish Gov felt the need to bail out these banks in the first place, why couldnt they let them go bust, surely it would have been the cheaper option.

Sure. If your bosom and drinking buddies, your partners in mass deception and crime, your cronies in the golden circle, who have kept you in the cocooned and festooned luxury to which you have long ago become accustomed, if they were going to be exposed for the crooks that they were, would you have let them go to the wall?

All of that.....plus............who did they ask for advice on what to do?

But of course it was not the fault of anyone here, it international factors and....eh Lehman's.

I'll tell you something if I see that Tom Lehman at the Ryder Cup I be roaring the lads to jump him.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: MCMLX on September 30, 2010, 04:22:13 PM
There has to be more to it than that FoSB. They cant have staked an entire nations future on the golden circle, can they? What I am asking, to the likes of Muppet who seems to have some sort of an idea, is what was the alternative. If the banks had been allowed to go to the wall what would that have meant for Ireland, would it have been worse than a €50billion bail out?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Bogball XV on September 30, 2010, 04:26:42 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 30, 2010, 03:18:24 PM


Bogball- where are you getting that 33bn in tax from? My understanding is that income is around 70bn vs tax of 50bn.   It is hard to see the current strategy working out. The bank situation deteriorates and that means more capital injections from the Govt which leads to more cuts which depress the economy which reduces GNP which increases the ratio of the deficit to GNP which increases bond yields which leads to more cuts which depress the economy which leads to more bank losses agus mar sin ar aghaidh.
Here are the dept of finance figures from Nov of last year, I'm sure there are more up to date figures but these show revenue at 31Bn (11 Months) and a deficit of 22Bn, it's only got worse since then as any cuts have been swallowed up by increasing interest costs.  The generally accepted tax revenue for the year is 33Bn, expenditure isn't quite as certain, but again I believe that a deficit of 25Bn is accepted by most.

http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/exchequerstatements/2009/NOVexcheqstat.pdf

Our peak revenue was in 06/07 at circa 55Bn, I believe expenditure at that stage was actually below it as we ran a surplus for a few years there.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Fear ón Srath Bán on September 30, 2010, 04:34:24 PM
Quote from: MCMLX on September 30, 2010, 04:22:13 PM
There has to be more to it than that FoSB. They cant have staked an entire nations future on the golden circle, can they? What I am asking, to the likes of Muppet who seems to have some sort of an idea, is what was the alternative. If the banks had been allowed to go to the wall what would that have meant for Ireland, would it have been worse than a €50billion bail out?

Fair enough MCMLX, a little bit too simplistic, but not that much.

Initially, they thought with the figures involved, though relatively humungus, they were easily 'manageable'. Therefore they could contrive another quango or two, i.e., NAMA, to be paid obscene amounts, like the obscene amounts they were still paying those who were advising them (for advice that they would ultimately ignore). So, whilst there'd be a squeeze on the ordinary Joe, they could weather that, and the gravy-train would roll along nicely for the chosen ones, with little difference from before.

Unfortunately for them, their 'friends' in the golden circle weren't that friendly at all, and in fact were feeding them tissue upon tissue of outright lies in respect of their financial wellbeings. So then they were caught on the spectre of what they've been caught in now -- almost certain bankruptcy of the State due to their utter complicity and negligence -- they could do nothing but steer straight ahead, into oblivion.

And yet they try to ride that gravy-train, and they'll try to ride it until the very end, when Ireland Inc. is little more than smouldering wreck (the IMF will see to that).
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on September 30, 2010, 04:44:43 PM
Quote from: MCMLX on September 30, 2010, 04:22:13 PM
There has to be more to it than that FoSB. They cant have staked an entire nations future on the golden circle, can they? What I am asking, to the likes of Muppet who seems to have some sort of an idea, is what was the alternative. If the banks had been allowed to go to the wall what would that have meant for Ireland, would it have been worse than a €50billion bail out?

No one that I have seen has suggested letting all of the banks go. If you look way back in the thread when it happened Bogball XV called the guarantee as a huge bluff within hours and he has been proved right. I suggested saving (by nationalising) the big two banks and maybe merging with one or two of the other ones but letting go the elephant in the room. As has been explained above better than I could it would have been much cheaper to do that then. Even the Swedes (remember the talk of the Swedish model?) let banks go to the wall during their crisis. Our muppets couldn't bear it though. Look how much of the total figure is going just to Anglo.

He is my very simple read of where we are now.

They tried the guarantee and when that failed they created NAMA. When that didn't save us they spoofed around until the markets stopped believing us. Now we have had today's announcement which seems to be an attempt to come clean and tell the markets what the truth is (e.g the upper limit on Anglo of €34Billion is the first worst case scenario comment I've read from an official source). If they are wrong...............well we won't talk about that.

Even if it works and the markets believe us the next budget is going to be vicious. Either they tear up the Croke Park agreement (and the marching really starts) or they puts taxes through the roof (and the really marching starts). That is the best case scenario.

Of course they could always charge for the €50 Billion of Natural Gas that Ray Burke gave away. ::)

Just for a laugh, here is what €50 Billion would buy you:

67 Port Tunnels
60 Luas Lines
125 New Airport Terminals
122 Aviva Stadia
> 3 Pakistan flooding disasters
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: seafoid on September 30, 2010, 05:07:12 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on September 30, 2010, 04:26:42 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 30, 2010, 03:18:24 PM


Bogball- where are you getting that 33bn in tax from? My understanding is that income is around 70bn vs tax of 50bn.   It is hard to see the current strategy working out. The bank situation deteriorates and that means more capital injections from the Govt which leads to more cuts which depress the economy which reduces GNP which increases the ratio of the deficit to GNP which increases bond yields which leads to more cuts which depress the economy which leads to more bank losses agus mar sin ar aghaidh.
Here are the dept of finance figures from Nov of last year, I'm sure there are more up to date figures but these show revenue at 31Bn (11 Months) and a deficit of 22Bn, it's only got worse since then as any cuts have been swallowed up by increasing interest costs.  The generally accepted tax revenue for the year is 33Bn, expenditure isn't quite as certain, but again I believe that a deficit of 25Bn is accepted by most.

http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/exchequerstatements/2009/NOVexcheqstat.pdf

Our peak revenue was in 06/07 at circa 55Bn, I believe expenditure at that stage was actually below it as we ran a surplus for a few years there.

Thanks
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on September 30, 2010, 05:35:29 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 30, 2010, 05:07:12 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on September 30, 2010, 04:26:42 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 30, 2010, 03:18:24 PM


Bogball- where are you getting that 33bn in tax from? My understanding is that income is around 70bn vs tax of 50bn.   It is hard to see the current strategy working out. The bank situation deteriorates and that means more capital injections from the Govt which leads to more cuts which depress the economy which reduces GNP which increases the ratio of the deficit to GNP which increases bond yields which leads to more cuts which depress the economy which leads to more bank losses agus mar sin ar aghaidh.
Here are the dept of finance figures from Nov of last year, I'm sure there are more up to date figures but these show revenue at 31Bn (11 Months) and a deficit of 22Bn, it's only got worse since then as any cuts have been swallowed up by increasing interest costs.  The generally accepted tax revenue for the year is 33Bn, expenditure isn't quite as certain, but again I believe that a deficit of 25Bn is accepted by most.

http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/exchequerstatements/2009/NOVexcheqstat.pdf

Our peak revenue was in 06/07 at circa 55Bn, I believe expenditure at that stage was actually below it as we ran a surplus for a few years there.

Thanks

That was my fault for posting this over a week ago. Can anyone enlighten me as to the difference please?

Quote from: muppet on September 21, 2010, 02:41:49 PM
http://www.cso.ie/statistics/imfsummaryire.htm (http://www.cso.ie/statistics/imfsummaryire.htm)

Dunno about 10 years ago but here are some interesting figures:





General Government or Public Service Operations- 2009- 2008
Revenue Fiscal Sector52,009M59,782M
Expenditure Fiscal Sector75,450M72,981M
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: seafoid on September 30, 2010, 06:02:35 PM
good man Muppet. i knew i saw it somewhere. No idea where the difference arises.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Capt Pat on September 30, 2010, 06:12:06 PM
Quote from: MCMLX on September 30, 2010, 04:06:38 PM
Quote from: fearglasmor on September 30, 2010, 04:02:19 PM
Should I be encourageing them to learn as many languages as possible and get the hell out of here as soon as they can.

Yes.

Can anyone explain why the Irish Gov felt the need to bail out these banks in the first place, why couldnt they let them go bust, surely it would have been the cheaper option.

They will say there were no easy options and in a way they have a point. However the only reason they took this route was to mind themselves and their freinds. The people who really run the country and the Fianna Fail party, the Property developers and the bankers were responsible for all this. So in order to protect them as much as possible, the government have taken this route of bailing out Anglo Irish and the others.

The option you mentioned of letting the banks go bust would have been the best in the long run but there would have been a lot of short term pain and the government would have been run out of town. So they chose to put the problem back to some point in the future.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: armaghniac on September 30, 2010, 06:13:07 PM
Quotewhere are you getting that 33bn in tax from? My understanding is that income is around 70bn vs tax of 50bn.

Tax is €31bn or so this year. However there is also PRSI, Health Levy, Pension Levy and assorted charges for things and even things like rents and fines. So revenue is indeed 50Bn odd.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Rossfan on September 30, 2010, 06:21:01 PM
Quote from: Capt Pat on September 30, 2010, 06:12:06 PM

They will say there were no easy options and in a way they have a point. However the only reason they took this route was to mind themselves and their freinds. The people who really run the country and the Fianna Fail party, the Property developers and the bankers were responsible for all this. So in order to protect them as much as possible, the government have taken this route of bailing out Anglo Irish and the others.


I couldnt have put it better myself.
The greedy irresponsible cnuts lost the run of themselves in the self created property bubble and then when they got burnt ( like in all pyramid schemes) it's decided that the plain people have to pay for it.
By jasus lads they wouldnt get away with it in France ( or Iceland)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Bogball XV on September 30, 2010, 06:58:58 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on September 30, 2010, 06:13:07 PM
Quotewhere are you getting that 33bn in tax from? My understanding is that income is around 70bn vs tax of 50bn.

Tax is €31bn or so this year. However there is also PRSI, Health Levy, Pension Levy and assorted charges for things and even things like rents and fines. So revenue is indeed 50Bn odd.
I imagine the tax figures include the new income levies though. 
Essentially what happens is that prsi and probably pension levy are netted off against the expenditure on same, thus whilst gross revenue is somewhere round 50Bn (not sure about that all), then gross expenditure is somewhere round 75Bn. 

Normally the figures bandied about are the net figures.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Myles Na G. on September 30, 2010, 08:42:50 PM
Quote from: Capt Pat on September 30, 2010, 06:12:06 PM
Quote from: MCMLX on September 30, 2010, 04:06:38 PM
Quote from: fearglasmor on September 30, 2010, 04:02:19 PM
Should I be encourageing them to learn as many languages as possible and get the hell out of here as soon as they can.

Yes.

Can anyone explain why the Irish Gov felt the need to bail out these banks in the first place, why couldnt they let them go bust, surely it would have been the cheaper option.

They will say there were no easy options and in a way they have a point. However the only reason they took this route was to mind themselves and their freinds. The people who really run the country and the Fianna Fail party, the Property developers and the bankers were responsible for all this. So in order to protect them as much as possible, the government have taken this route of bailing out Anglo Irish and the others.

The option you mentioned of letting the banks go bust would have been the best in the long run but there would have been a lot of short term pain and the government would have been run out of town. So they chose to put the problem back to some point in the future.
Let the banks go bust and what happens? A lot of other international banks, who were happy to lend our banks ridiculous sums of money in the good times, don't get their money back. This would not be good news for Ireland. The only thing keeping Ireland afloat at the moment is foreign loans. If there's even a whiff of doubt about Ireland's long term ability to repay its debts, that money would be withdrawn pretty quickly. If that happens, then we're well and truly stuffed.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on September 30, 2010, 08:51:11 PM
Quote from: Myles Na G. on September 30, 2010, 08:42:50 PM
Quote from: Capt Pat on September 30, 2010, 06:12:06 PM
Quote from: MCMLX on September 30, 2010, 04:06:38 PM
Quote from: fearglasmor on September 30, 2010, 04:02:19 PM
Should I be encourageing them to learn as many languages as possible and get the hell out of here as soon as they can.

Yes.

Can anyone explain why the Irish Gov felt the need to bail out these banks in the first place, why couldnt they let them go bust, surely it would have been the cheaper option.

They will say there were no easy options and in a way they have a point. However the only reason they took this route was to mind themselves and their freinds. The people who really run the country and the Fianna Fail party, the Property developers and the bankers were responsible for all this. So in order to protect them as much as possible, the government have taken this route of bailing out Anglo Irish and the others.

The option you mentioned of letting the banks go bust would have been the best in the long run but there would have been a lot of short term pain and the government would have been run out of town. So they chose to put the problem back to some point in the future.
Let the banks go bust and what happens? A lot of other international banks, who were happy to lend our banks ridiculous sums of money in the good times, don't get their money back. This would not be good news for Ireland. The only thing keeping Ireland afloat at the moment is foreign loans. If there's even a whiff of doubt about Ireland's long term ability to repay its debts, that money would be withdrawn pretty quickly. If that happens, then we're well and truly stuffed.

Why can Iceland now borrow money cheaper than us then?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Lecale2 on September 30, 2010, 08:54:05 PM
Things are so, so bad now that maybe, just maybe, they should call the international bankers bluff.

Refuse to bail out AIB and Anglo and let's see what happens.

Maybe the roof won't fall in. Who is telling us it will? Bankers. That's right, the same guys that have kept things on the straight and narrow the past few years. Ireland has nothing to lose now. We need a brave leader to say "Feck it! Enough is enough!".
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on September 30, 2010, 09:12:08 PM
Professor Ray Kinsella: We simply cannot get back to a 3% deficit by 2014 and we will break the back of the economy if we try.



Imagine if the German economy keeps growing and they decide to raise interest rates anytime before 2014.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on September 30, 2010, 09:35:34 PM
Looking at p.ie some of them are talking about INBS.

Apparently they have now been bailed out for an amount equal to every cent they loaned out. That means, if the p.ie guys are to be believed, that of all of their loans nothing was recoverable. Smells very very fishy. It could hardly be called systemic and it wasn't even a bank.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: MCMLX on September 30, 2010, 10:00:52 PM
Quote from: Lecale2 on September 30, 2010, 08:54:05 PM
Things are so, so bad now that maybe, just maybe, they should call the international bankers bluff.

Refuse to bail out AIB and Anglo and let's see what happens.

Maybe the roof won't fall in. Who is telling us it will? Bankers. That's right, the same guys that have kept things on the straight and narrow the past few years. Ireland has nothing to lose now. We need a brave leader to say "Feck it! Enough is enough!".

I`d like to see this happen. It has to be the cheaper option.

Silly question but where are the opposition regarding this banking crisis? Surely they should be organising street protests, rallying the troops, preparing for government, etc etc etc. Or are they up to their necks in it as well?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on September 30, 2010, 10:02:57 PM
Quote from: MCMLX on September 30, 2010, 10:00:52 PM
Quote from: Lecale2 on September 30, 2010, 08:54:05 PM
Things are so, so bad now that maybe, just maybe, they should call the international bankers bluff.

Refuse to bail out AIB and Anglo and let's see what happens.

Maybe the roof won't fall in. Who is telling us it will? Bankers. That's right, the same guys that have kept things on the straight and narrow the past few years. Ireland has nothing to lose now. We need a brave leader to say "Feck it! Enough is enough!".

I`d like to see this happen. It has to be the cheaper option.

Silly question but where are the opposition regarding this banking crisis? Surely they should be organising street protests, rallying the troops, preparing for government, etc etc etc. Or are they up to their necks in it as well?

For the last 15 years the media have replaced the opposition as the opposition. The problem is that just before each election they change tack and support the government which is not really what oppositions are supposed to do. And of course thousands of Irish voters haven't figured this out yet.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: seafoid on September 30, 2010, 10:05:36 PM
Lenihan going a bit seafoid on Prime time about media coverage. He looks possessed.  I wonder if the EU would insist on senior boldholders chipping in before Ireland gets any sponds from the special EU pot behind the dresser.     
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: seafoid on September 30, 2010, 10:08:01 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 30, 2010, 09:12:08 PM
Professor Ray Kinsella: We simply cannot get back to a 3% deficit by 2014 and we will break the back of the economy if we try.



Imagine if the German economy keeps growing and they decide to raise interest rates anytime before 2014.

A good dose of inflation would work wonders for the debt load.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Bogball XV on September 30, 2010, 10:09:07 PM
I find it difficult to fathom how lenihan can stand there and say that every decision taken since the start of the crisis has been the right one, when the two biggest decisions are disastrous.  It's time the man stood down, he seems determined to champion both NAMA and the guarantee in the face of all evidence to the contrary, so regardless of how well meaning he is, he has turned into a dangerous fool.

As I said before there's no point in defaulting, it's too late, it would just involve another huge legal battle that'd be lost, that or become international outcasts and live on our own island with no outside interaction - de valera's paradise.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: MCMLX on September 30, 2010, 10:11:23 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 30, 2010, 10:02:57 PM
For the last 15 years the media have replaced the opposition as the opposition. The problem is that just before each election they change tack and support the government which is not really what oppositions are supposed to do. And of course thousands of Irish voters haven't figured this out yet.

The Irish voters? What about Fine Gael? Isnt it time they figured it out? Feckin hell, you`d think they`d be all over this like a rash on a hookers arse.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on September 30, 2010, 10:15:55 PM
Quote from: MCMLX on September 30, 2010, 10:11:23 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 30, 2010, 10:02:57 PM
For the last 15 years the media have replaced the opposition as the opposition. The problem is that just before each election they change tack and support the government which is not really what oppositions are supposed to do. And of course thousands of Irish voters haven't figured this out yet.

The Irish voters? What about Fine Gael? Isnt it time they figured it out? Feckin hell, you`d think they`d be all over this like a rash on a hookers arse.

How do they do that without the media? Why was Lenihan allowed to be interviewed without Noonan?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Fear ón Srath Bán on September 30, 2010, 10:18:22 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on September 30, 2010, 10:09:07 PM
As I said before there's no point in defaulting, it's too late, it would just involve another huge legal battle that'd be lost, that or become international outcasts and live on our own island with no outside interaction - de valera's paradise.

They can default, but not whilst that guarantee is live, i.e., not until another 3 months have elapsed after last night's Dáil vote for continuation of same (for that period). But even then, they'd have to dissemble right up until a second after midnight on the date of expiry and then drop the bombshell that subordinated debt is up for review (having worked hammer and tongs behind the scenes to put an alternative strategy in place, that doesn't crucify the taxpayer), with everything that that would entail (such as public ownership of AIB & BOI, etc.).
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: seafoid on September 30, 2010, 10:23:41 PM
The danger is that it's not over yet, that non NAMA lending in BoI and AIB throws up another few bn of losses. NAMA is the most that that the country could manage. If it is insufficient then all bets are off.   Lenihan to be fair to him is only doing what he is being told to do. If the implosion of the property bubble gets beyond a certain size there is very little any government can do. What I find most  objectionable about Lenihan is the hounding of people like Morgan Kelly who called this right from the start.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: MCMLX on September 30, 2010, 10:26:40 PM
Quote from: Fear ón Srath Bán on September 30, 2010, 10:18:22 PM
(having worked hammer and tongs behind the scenes to put an alternative strategy in place, that doesn't crucify the taxpayer), with everything that that would entail (such as public ownership of AIB & BOI, etc.).

Can the taxpayer actually stand up and say I`m not hving this, other than at the polling station?

How safe is anyones money in a southern bank? I have 2 southern accounts, is it time to withdraw the money quietly and take it north?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on September 30, 2010, 10:38:14 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 30, 2010, 10:23:41 PM
The danger is that it's not over yet, that non NAMA lending in BoI and AIB throws up another few bn of losses. NAMA is the most that that the country could manage. If it is insufficient then all bets are off.   Lenihan to be fair to him is only doing what he is being told to do. If the implosion of the property bubble gets beyond a certain size there is very little any government can do. What I find most  objectionable about Lenihan is the hounding of people like Morgan Kelly who called this right from the start.

Noonan has repeatedly asked what advice did the Government act on when they created the guarantee. Colm McCarthy last night (betraying his loyalty) said that there was no piece of paper saying that they shouldn't do it. Noonan asked the right question saying 'what piece of paper advised them to do it', McCarthy seemed to signal there was none but of course O'Callaghan missed the significance of this and moved on.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Bogball XV on September 30, 2010, 10:38:25 PM
Quote from: Fear ón Srath Bán on September 30, 2010, 10:18:22 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on September 30, 2010, 10:09:07 PM
As I said before there's no point in defaulting, it's too late, it would just involve another huge legal battle that'd be lost, that or become international outcasts and live on our own island with no outside interaction - de valera's paradise.

They can default, but not whilst that guarantee is live, i.e., not until another 3 months have elapsed after last night's Dáil vote for continuation of same (for that period). But even then, they'd have to dissemble right up until a second after midnight on the date of expiry and then drop the bombshell that subordinated debt is up for review (having worked hammer and tongs behind the scenes to put an alternative strategy in place, that doesn't crucify the taxpayer), with everything that that would entail (such as public ownership of AIB & BOI, etc.).
true, it was the one saving grace back when the guarantee was announced that it was only for two years, back then i was naive enough to think that they'd have scrapped the guarantee at the end of that - the only thing is that as anglo has been nationalised, you'd have to find do a heap on legal work to figure out who is liable and to what extent the state is etc...  Still it could be an option.

Did ye hear Joan on there a minute ago, yer man Karl Whelan was about to answer the question  I posed earlier about what we do next, given that we need cuts and at the same time can't risk the destimulising effect.  Karl was winding up to answer and Joanie interjects with "we'll need to get people back working, there's 450K unemployed........"  Indeed Joanie, we all appreciate the sentiment, now shut the fcuk up and let's hear how.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: bcarrier on September 30, 2010, 10:39:26 PM
Quote from: Rois on September 30, 2010, 12:45:53 PM
Interesting developments in terms of my workload anyway - my Dublin secondment will be shorter than I'd imagined as they've raised the exposure floor from €5m to €20m.

That makes sense Rois......lawyers and valuers have been collecting fees from transfer of loans from one state institution Anglo to another in NAMA. It now looks like AIB is also virtually nationalised so the AIB/NAMA transfers also served no purpose ( except possibly forcing AIB to face reality).

There have been many mistakes but the inclusion of Anglo/INBS in the guarantee is by some distance the most costly.  ... When you are in a hole stop digging etc.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Bogball XV on September 30, 2010, 10:41:01 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 30, 2010, 10:38:14 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 30, 2010, 10:23:41 PM
The danger is that it's not over yet, that non NAMA lending in BoI and AIB throws up another few bn of losses. NAMA is the most that that the country could manage. If it is insufficient then all bets are off.   Lenihan to be fair to him is only doing what he is being told to do. If the implosion of the property bubble gets beyond a certain size there is very little any government can do. What I find most  objectionable about Lenihan is the hounding of people like Morgan Kelly who called this right from the start.

Noonan has repeatedly asked what advice did the Government act on when they created the guarantee. Colm McCarthy last night (betraying his loyalty) said that there was no piece of paper saying that they shouldn't do it. Noonan asked the right question saying 'what piece of paper advised them to do it', McCarthy seemed to signal there was none but of course O'Callaghan missed the significance of this and moved on.
did she though?  Her brother stood for FF last time round.

Big Jim

http://www.jimocallaghan.com/

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on September 30, 2010, 10:43:23 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on September 30, 2010, 10:41:01 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 30, 2010, 10:38:14 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 30, 2010, 10:23:41 PM
The danger is that it's not over yet, that non NAMA lending in BoI and AIB throws up another few bn of losses. NAMA is the most that that the country could manage. If it is insufficient then all bets are off.   Lenihan to be fair to him is only doing what he is being told to do. If the implosion of the property bubble gets beyond a certain size there is very little any government can do. What I find most  objectionable about Lenihan is the hounding of people like Morgan Kelly who called this right from the start.

Noonan has repeatedly asked what advice did the Government act on when they created the guarantee. Colm McCarthy last night (betraying his loyalty) said that there was no piece of paper saying that they shouldn't do it. Noonan asked the right question saying 'what piece of paper advised them to do it', McCarthy seemed to signal there was none but of course O'Callaghan missed the significance of this and moved on.
did she though?  Her brother stood for FF last time round.

Big Jim

http://www.jimocallaghan.com/

That figures.

Don't tell MayoGodHelpUs.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Fear ón Srath Bán on September 30, 2010, 10:47:01 PM
Quote from: MCMLX on September 30, 2010, 10:26:40 PM
Quote from: Fear ón Srath Bán on September 30, 2010, 10:18:22 PM
(having worked hammer and tongs behind the scenes to put an alternative strategy in place, that doesn't crucify the taxpayer), with everything that that would entail (such as public ownership of AIB & BOI, etc.).

Can the taxpayer actually stand up and say I`m not hving this, other than at the polling station?

How safe is anyones money in a southern bank? I have 2 southern accounts, is it time to withdraw the money quietly and take it north?

Nope, not really, the only option other than at the ballot-box is full scale revolution (again).

Re your deposits, they're safe I'd say, particularly with the guarantee in place, and even when it's not (in that the government will have a controlling stake) -- defaulting on deposits would be suicidal.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Hereiam on September 30, 2010, 10:49:22 PM
Is the credit union the best place for ur money at this moment in time
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: MCMLX on September 30, 2010, 10:54:58 PM
Quote from: Hereiam on September 30, 2010, 10:49:22 PM
Is the credit union the best place for ur money at this moment in time

My local CU "banks" its money every day.  :o
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Bogball XV on September 30, 2010, 10:55:05 PM
Quote from: Fear ón Srath Bán on September 30, 2010, 10:47:01 PM
Quote from: MCMLX on September 30, 2010, 10:26:40 PM
Nope, not really, the only option other than at the ballot-box is full scale revolution (again).

Re your deposits, they're safe I'd say, particularly with the guarantee in place, and even when it's not (in that the government will have a controlling stake) -- defaulting on deposits would be suicidal.
statutorily the govt set a limit of 100K on deposits, that was 2 weeks before the guarantee (and an expansion of that was all that was actually required instead of the guarantee).  Prior to that it had been 22K (or 90% thereof).

The thing is, who will actually be repaying it?  Will it be like bondholders pre-russian revolution who had to wait for 80 yrs to get their money!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Bogball XV on September 30, 2010, 10:56:28 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on September 30, 2010, 10:39:26 PM
Quote from: Rois on September 30, 2010, 12:45:53 PM
Interesting developments in terms of my workload anyway - my Dublin secondment will be shorter than I'd imagined as they've raised the exposure floor from €5m to €20m.

That makes sense Rois......lawyers and valuers have been collecting fees from transfer of loans from one state institution Anglo to another in NAMA. It now looks like AIB is also virtually nationalised so the AIB/NAMA transfers also served no purpose ( except possibly forcing AIB to face reality).

There have been many mistakes but the inclusion of Anglo/INBS in the guarantee is by some distance the most costly.  ... When you are in a hole stop digging etc.
the large professional firms have been amongst the big winners in the NAMA debacle alright, it's no wonder they were cheerleading it.  Vested interests are never far from the surface in the irish economy.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on September 30, 2010, 10:58:03 PM
Lenny is on Vincent Browne at 2305 apparently.

I wonder will he be again let away with denying that he has made a bad decision, that it is a disaster and promising to bring those responsible to 'justice'.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Donnellys Hollow on September 30, 2010, 11:54:43 PM
Vincent gave Lenihan both barrels anyway
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Zapatista on September 30, 2010, 11:55:26 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 30, 2010, 10:58:03 PM
Lenny is on Vincent Browne at 2305 apparently.

I wonder will he be again let away with denying that he has made a bad decision, that it is a disaster and promising to bring those responsible to 'justice'.

New poll out says he is favourite to replace Cowen.
I am gobsmacked at that. The man hasn't got a single sum or prediction right in 2 years. I will be paying for this mans stupidity for the rest of my working live and at the end of that I have a much reduced life style to reward me for all my hard work. Sick!
FF are not capable of Government. They are bleeding the people of this country to feed their fat zombies.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on September 30, 2010, 11:57:13 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on September 30, 2010, 11:55:26 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 30, 2010, 10:58:03 PM
Lenny is on Vincent Browne at 2305 apparently.

I wonder will he be again let away with denying that he has made a bad decision, that it is a disaster and promising to bring those responsible to 'justice'.

New poll out says he is favourite to replace Cowen.
I am gobsmacked at that. The man hasn't got a single sum or prediction right in 2 years. I will be paying for this mans stupidity for the rest of my working live and at the end of that I have a much reduced life style to reward me for all my hard work. Sick!
FF are not capable of Government. They are bleeding the people of this country to feed their fat zombies.

We live in the celebrity era. People would vote for the likes Louis Walsh over say someone with a brain in his head.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Zapatista on October 01, 2010, 12:06:16 AM
Quote from: muppet on September 30, 2010, 11:57:13 PM
We live in the celebrity era. People would vote for the likes Louis Walsh over say someone with a brain in his head.

It still doesn't make sense though. If Lenihan becomes leader of FF and FF take a bump in the polls for it I will sadly have to advise the young to get out of this country and don't come back unless you are on a boat armed to the teeth and ready to take the country by force.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on October 01, 2010, 12:13:37 AM
Quote from: Zapatista on October 01, 2010, 12:06:16 AM
Quote from: muppet on September 30, 2010, 11:57:13 PM
We live in the celebrity era. People would vote for the likes Louis Walsh over say someone with a brain in his head.

It still doesn't make sense though. If Lenihan becomes leader of FF and FF take a bump in the polls for it I will sadly have to advise the young to get out of this country and don't come back unless you are on a boat armed to the teeth and ready to take the country by force.

Ideally all of our sponging politicians should be run out of the Dail and that covers all parties and especially the independents. However that is not an option sadly.

A national government made up of the best ministers would be ideal but that would involve politicians acting in the interests of the country rather than their parties so that won't happen either.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Fear ón Srath Bán on October 01, 2010, 12:30:20 AM
Quote from: Zapatista on September 30, 2010, 11:55:26 PM
New poll out says he is favourite to replace Cowen.
I am gobsmacked at that. The man hasn't got a single sum or prediction right in 2 years. I will be paying for this mans stupidity for the rest of my working live and at the end of that I have a much reduced life style to reward me for all my hard work. Sick!
FF are not capable of Government. They are bleeding the people of this country to feed their fat zombies.

I am dreading this budget come next month (November), not because I begrudge paying taxes but because I begrudge paying for the complicity and incompetency of a crooked government who are hell-bent on securing the maximum pay-off for the most, not the minimum pay-out for the most.

Emigration beckons, once again.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Tony Baloney on October 01, 2010, 12:33:50 AM
Back to the 80s.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Donnellys Hollow on October 01, 2010, 12:34:28 AM
The spectre of the IMF looms large. That will not be pretty, for anyone.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on October 01, 2010, 12:36:37 AM
Quote from: Tony Baloney on October 01, 2010, 12:33:50 AM
Back to the 80s.

I think this will be worse. No IMF then.

The simple question is do you believe Lenihan and Cowen.

If they are right, we have a chance. If not...................
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Tony Baloney on October 01, 2010, 12:38:50 AM
What's the nuclear option come budget time?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on October 01, 2010, 12:44:16 AM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/8035645/Hedge-funds-hold-Ireland-to-ransom-over-Anglo-Irish-Bank-bail-out.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/8035645/Hedge-funds-hold-Ireland-to-ransom-over-Anglo-Irish-Bank-bail-out.html)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Fear ón Srath Bán on October 01, 2010, 12:45:20 AM
Quote from: Tony Baloney on October 01, 2010, 12:38:50 AM
What's the nuclear option come budget time?

Assassinating the entire cabinet on the eve of the budget ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Bogball XV on October 01, 2010, 12:55:12 AM
I think it very unlikely that Brian Lenihan will lead FF, althouh, perhaps if he were to get the bump up now he'd do less damage?

Quote from: Fear ón Srath Bán on October 01, 2010, 12:45:20 AM
Quote from: Tony Baloney on October 01, 2010, 12:38:50 AM
What's the nuclear option come budget time?

Assassinating the entire cabinet on the eve of the budget ;)
I don't think the greens like the nuclear option :D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: seafoid on October 01, 2010, 05:21:44 AM
Quote from: Hereiam on September 30, 2010, 10:49:22 PM
Is the credit union the best place for ur money at this moment in time

I think this post says it all. The guarantee followed the day Joe Duffy was bombarded with calls from citizens worried about their savings and was a response to the risk of a bank run. 2 years on, with NAMA costing 40bn and 50bn pumped into 6 banks to draw a lne under the sand and it's back. People asking if their money is safe.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: bcarrier on October 01, 2010, 07:55:43 AM
Quote from: muppet on September 30, 2010, 10:58:03 PM
Lenny is on Vincent Browne at 2305 apparently.

I wonder will he be again let away with denying that he has made a bad decision, that it is a disaster and promising to bring those responsible to 'justice'.

When I hear Lenihan now ( as in aherne in his day ) I am reminded of  Groucho Marx and " If you can fake sincerity you got it made " ( or something like that) . He comes across as sincere so being wrong doesnt come into it for the wider public...There is someone on propertypin who refers to him as " the lawyer who didnt read the small print " ...its amazing he has got way with the anglo howler.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Declan on October 01, 2010, 08:27:04 AM
QuoteWhen I hear Lenihan now ( as in aherne in his day ) I am reminded of  Groucho Marx and " If you can fake sincerity you got it made

Indeed - Folks you've got to remember that his lineage means that the FF DNA is so deeply embedded that he cannot see any further than his nose can lift above the parapet of the trough. Lenihan and his ilk do not give a flying f**k about the general population and any observer of abusive relationships would be well versed with our dysfunctional relationship with the Soldiers of Destiny. They keep hitting and raping us and we keep expecting them to change because they love us - NEWSFLASH - They'll never change.

In this bleak week I'll give you 2 quotes from Einstein to consider:
1. Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
2. No problem can be solved from the same level of consciousness that created it

Oh and it's good to see that they can understand exactly what they are speaking into
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UyKzzpW5O7s (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UyKzzpW5O7s) :D :D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Tony Baloney on October 01, 2010, 09:00:43 AM
Maybe this is what is needed...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/ecuador/8036053/Ecuador-coup-50-injured-in-clashes.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/ecuador/8036053/Ecuador-coup-50-injured-in-clashes.html)

Countries being bankrupted by corrupt/inept governments isn't confined to Africa and S. America!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Fear ón Srath Bán on October 01, 2010, 09:30:05 AM
Quote from: Tony Baloney on October 01, 2010, 09:00:43 AM
Countries being bankrupted by corrupt/inept governments isn't confined to Africa and S. America!

Indeed. At least Nero could play the violin, all this shower can do is fiddle.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Bogball XV on October 01, 2010, 10:36:34 AM
Quote from: seafoid on October 01, 2010, 05:21:44 AM
Quote from: Hereiam on September 30, 2010, 10:49:22 PM
Is the credit union the best place for ur money at this moment in time

I think this post says it all. The guarantee followed the day Joe Duffy was bombarded with calls from citizens worried about their savings and was a response to the risk of a bank run. 2 years on, with NAMA costing 40bn and 50bn pumped into 6 banks to draw a lne under the sand and it's back. People asking if their money is safe.
that was when leno rang rte to complain and to tell Joe Duffy that he was being irresponsible.  As I've said before, part of his problem is that he thinks that the word markets hang on his every word, I heard him admit that just after he took over he was taken aside by departmental officials and warned that his words would move markets and that he must be extremely careful.  They should have explained to him that the more he keeps on talking up the situation, the less likely they are to believe anything that comes out of his mouth.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: lynchbhoy on October 01, 2010, 10:45:28 AM
Quote from: Declan on October 01, 2010, 08:27:04 AM
QuoteWhen I hear Lenihan now ( as in aherne in his day ) I am reminded of  Groucho Marx and " If you can fake sincerity you got it made

Indeed - Folks you've got to remember that his lineage means that the FF DNA is so deeply embedded that he cannot see any further than his nose can lift above the parapet of the trough. Lenihan and his ilk do not give a flying f**k about the general population and any observer of abusive relationships would be well versed with our dysfunctional relationship with the Soldiers of Destiny. They keep hitting and raping us and we keep expecting them to change because they love us - NEWSFLASH - They'll never change.

In this bleak week I'll give you 2 quotes from Einstein to consider:
1. Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
2. No problem can be solved from the same level of consciousness that created it

Oh and it's good to see that they can understand exactly what they are speaking into
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UyKzzpW5O7s (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UyKzzpW5O7s) :D :D
this is all true
but I dont think that any of these politicians are any better.
Maybe a few from each party can be pulled out to form an intelligent progressive government - right now 'party' is such an apt word for these collections of me feiners !
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Fear ón Srath Bán on October 01, 2010, 11:17:42 AM
Is there a more damning illustration of just how detached from reality this sorry cabal (in Leinster House) are? Premiers of the globe, and what they're paid, in order from the top of most to least:

1. Lee Hsien Loong, Prime Minister, Singapore
Annual salary: $2.75 million

2. Donald Tsang, Chief Executive, Hong Kong
Annual salary: $515,300

3. Barack Obama, President, United States
Annual salary: $400,000

4. Nicolas Sarkozy, President, France
Annual salary: $319,800

5. Julia Gillard, Prime Minister, Australia
Annual salary: $315,800

6. Brian Cowen, Taoiseach, Ireland
Annual salary: $312,000


7. Stephen Harper, Prime Minister, Canada
Annual salary: $309,800

8. Jacob Zuma, President, South Africa
Annual salary: $305,800

9. Angela Merkel, Chancellor, Germany
Annual salary: $303,800

10. David Cameron, Prime Minister, United Kingdom
Annual salary: $300,400

And it's not just the fact that Biffo's number 6 in the world (must be inversely proportional to performance in his case), he's entirely symptomatic of the grossly inflated pay that the higher levels of the public sector have awarded themselves, while the lower levels struggle.

When they swing their swingeing axe of cuts to the public sector in this budget they had better, this time, bring themselves into line remuneration-wise (as they so offensively failed to do last time). Otherwise there will be trouble.


Edit: I'd forgotten initially about their recent salary cut in the Dáil (Cowen was at number 4), but the fact that even after that reduction Cowen's still paid more than, for example, Cameron is bad enough.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: bcarrier on October 01, 2010, 11:56:11 AM
The trouble with the numbers above is that they are expressed in $ .

Everthing in Ireland is overpriced and so a vicious cycle began. Take the humble bottle of coors light. Less than £3 in Uk ...5.50 euro in ireland .Camerons ( untaxed) salary will purchase about 100,000 bottles of coors light whereas the biffos with probably only buy 60,000.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Bogball XV on October 01, 2010, 12:00:04 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on October 01, 2010, 11:56:11 AM
The trouble with the numbers above is that they are expressed in $ .

Everthing in Ireland is overpriced and so a vicious cycle began. Take the humble bottle of coors light. Less than £3 in Uk ...5.50 euro in ireland .Camerons ( untaxed) salary will purchase about 100,000 bottles of coors light whereas the biffos with probably only buy 60,000.
Sure he'd only be topping up with 60,000 bottles of Coors Light - not sure if he'd be into light beers all the same.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: MCMLX on October 01, 2010, 12:19:07 PM
Quote from: seafoid on October 01, 2010, 05:21:44 AM
Quote from: Hereiam on September 30, 2010, 10:49:22 PM
Is the credit union the best place for ur money at this moment in time

I think this post says it all. The guarantee followed the day Joe Duffy was bombarded with calls from citizens worried about their savings and was a response to the risk of a bank run. 2 years on, with NAMA costing 40bn and 50bn pumped into 6 banks to draw a lne under the sand and it's back. People asking if their money is safe.

The ordinary Joe has been fed lie after lie, how are we to know if our money is safe anywhere? Would you trust a government guarantee, I know I certainly dont.
Could we see a tax on savings next?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Main Street on October 01, 2010, 12:41:58 PM
Back to an article linked by Bogball

"New York hedge funds bet against Republic of Ireland"
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/business-news/new-york-hedge-funds-bet-against-republic-of-ireland-14959638.html (http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/business-news/new-york-hedge-funds-bet-against-republic-of-ireland-14959638.html)

How does this scam work? -  bet against Irish government bonds -   (hedge funds) taken major positions against Irish debt - €3bn of Ireland's debt was being targeted by speculators through the uses of derivatives.



Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Zapatista on October 01, 2010, 03:54:44 PM
Quote from: Declan on October 01, 2010, 08:27:04 AM


In this bleak week I'll give you 2 quotes from Einstein to consider:
1. Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
2. No problem can be solved from the same level of consciousness that created it

Oh and it's good to see that they can understand exactly what they are speaking into
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UyKzzpW5O7s (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UyKzzpW5O7s) :D :D

It's the battered wife syndrome. The more FF batter us and our children the more we tell ourselves they are good deep down and we are the only ones who see it (seriously I seen Lenihan buy rounds of beer in a pub he was never in before and hasn't been since during the 2007 election. Surely he must be a decent guy). The rest of the world know they will kill us one day but we just won't listen.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: bcarrier on October 01, 2010, 09:25:02 PM
F**K the subordinated bondholders.

F**k Chelsea.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE69024P20101001
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on October 02, 2010, 02:30:35 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on October 01, 2010, 09:25:02 PM
F**K the subordinated bondholders.

F**k Chelsea.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE69024P20101001

This demonstrates beautifully what screwing the citizens to protect bondholders really means.

A more serious question is why the INBS bailout is equal to their total loan book? Does every single loan have to be paid off by the state? If so who borrowed the money and are they walking away scott free?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on October 02, 2010, 03:32:57 PM
Quote from: Take Your Points on October 02, 2010, 03:26:36 PM
That's what puzzles me.  All this eye watery amount of money was borrowed and poured into the state of 4 million people.  Where did the money go?  All of these developers are claiming they have nothing now.  Is there nothing that can be recovered from anyone in the state?  There must be a large number of millionaires and even some billionaires given the amount of money sloshing around the system.

BTW BoI in N.Ireland is now divorced from BoI RoI and is now part of BoI UK.

Impossible to know but I'd imagine the previous owners of the Bewleys/Doyle Group/Burlington hotels made a fortune. The problem for them is what did they do with the money after they sold out? Imagine if, like say Sean Quinn, they put a lot of it in the stocks formerly known as 'blue chip' such as Irish banks it would have been wiped out. Also if they put it into Irish stocks in general they could have lost up to 75%. God help them if they put it into property.

Another possibility is they deposited it in Irish banks who then lent it out and blew it. In that case the Government will take it off the ordinary citizen and give it back to them.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Hereiam on October 02, 2010, 08:20:56 PM
Quote from: Take Your Points on October 02, 2010, 03:26:36 PM
That's what puzzles me.  All this eye watery amount of money was borrowed and poured into the state of 4 million people.  Where did the money go?  All of these developers are claiming they have nothing now.  Is there nothing that can be recovered from anyone in the state?  There must be a large number of millionaires and even some billionaires given the amount of money sloshing around the system.

BTW BoI in N.Ireland is now divorced from BoI RoI and is now part of BoI UK.

T.U.P the money never existed to start with. This is what is buggin me. The banks were lending credit that they never had, but yet people are been forced to pay back real money in place of it The bad loans that nama is supposed to be takin care off could be wiped tomorrow because its not real money, its credit that never exisited. If that makes any sense.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: bcarrier on October 02, 2010, 08:28:14 PM
QuoteA more serious question is why the INBS bailout is equal to their total loan book? Does every single loan have to be paid off by the state? If so who borrowed the money and are they walking away scott free?

Derivatives ? ...I think anglo lost some big bet against the yen...huge damage done in six months before lehman crisis as they chased the losses.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on October 02, 2010, 08:32:17 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on October 02, 2010, 08:28:14 PM
QuoteA more serious question is why the INBS bailout is equal to their total loan book? Does every single loan have to be paid off by the state? If so who borrowed the money and are they walking away scott free?

Derivatives ? ...I think anglo lost some big bet against the yen...huge damage done in six months before lehman crisis as they chased the losses.

That could be it. It would make idiots out of the Financial Regulator/Central Bank and recent Ministers for Finance if they let these stupid banks bet.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on October 03, 2010, 02:57:08 PM
Been thinking about the NTMA not issuing bonds for the next couple of months. After Thursday it is probably now too expensive for us.

Cowen's spin is that we are funded up to the middle of next year. The problem is that we are broke after that. The assumption must be that they think things will be better by then and borrowing will be dramatically cheaper. If they are wrong we will be borrowing at higher rates and with money running out. They would most likely be strung by the markets never mind the citizens.

The only likely way that rates will fall back well under 5% is if a ferocious budget gets through. That is by no means certain either.

That leaves only one other possibility. Cowen will pull the plug and have an election before they borrow again.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: bcarrier on October 03, 2010, 08:27:18 PM
The english telegraph has a lot to say about ireland these days ..here is the latest


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ireland/8039759/Irelands-austerity-programme-was-bogus.html

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Main Street on October 03, 2010, 08:42:10 PM
That Telegraph article is a load of neoliberal pish.
It is mixing up bank guarantees. The Irish Gov guarantee of Bank deposits did not commit it to wholesale guaranteeing of toxic assets. That was a separate independent decision taken to protect a financial elite, under the guise of protecting an economy.
The Gov guaranteeing bank deposits was essential and about the only sound decision the Gov made during the crash.



Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on October 03, 2010, 08:52:50 PM
Apparently the Government Broadcaster RTE will see a few changes between now and the Election.

Here is what the News is going to look like: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fY19S4_zFXU (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fY19S4_zFXU)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Zapatista on October 03, 2010, 11:31:38 PM
Quote from: Hereiam on October 02, 2010, 08:20:56 PM
Quote from: Take Your Points on October 02, 2010, 03:26:36 PM
That's what puzzles me.  All this eye watery amount of money was borrowed and poured into the state of 4 million people.  Where did the money go?  All of these developers are claiming they have nothing now.  Is there nothing that can be recovered from anyone in the state?  There must be a large number of millionaires and even some billionaires given the amount of money sloshing around the system.

BTW BoI in N.Ireland is now divorced from BoI RoI and is now part of BoI UK.

T.U.P the money never existed to start with. This is what is buggin me. The banks were lending credit that they never had, but yet people are been forced to pay back real money in place of it The bad loans that nama is supposed to be takin care off could be wiped tomorrow because its not real money, its credit that never exisited. If that makes any sense.

The money did exist (although the wealth didn't) but it has disappeared with the fall in asset value. We borrowed real money and spent it on real product but we paid over the odds of the value. When the market turned and the real value of the assets were realised we had still borrowed the real money but were left in it's place with something of much less value. Now to repay the debts and make up the difference in the asset value and the money borrowed we must borrow futher. As it's not possible for individuals to borrow and pay the debts the state have taken on all the debt. Meaning profit for the lender is guaranteed while loss for the borrower has been nationalised.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: seafoid on October 04, 2010, 11:35:42 AM
Quote from: muppet on October 03, 2010, 02:57:08 PM
Been thinking about the NTMA not issuing bonds for the next couple of months. After Thursday it is probably now too expensive for us.

Cowen's spin is that we are funded up to the middle of next year. The problem is that we are broke after that. The assumption must be that they think things will be better by then and borrowing will be dramatically cheaper. If they are wrong we will be borrowing at higher rates and with money running out. They would most likely be strung by the markets never mind the citizens.

The only likely way that rates will fall back well under 5% is if a ferocious budget gets through. That is by no means certain either.

That leaves only one other possibility. Cowen will pull the plug and have an election before they borrow again.

The government had no choice but to suspend the auctions. The market doesn't believe the government and the rates being paid reflected that. At 6.5% debt is simply too expensive. The finance sector globally is currently in "risk off " mode and stock markets are all down on 3 months ago and nobody is very optimistic about the prognosis for the immediate future. If the mood changes and it's "risk on" again and money flows back into assets like bonds and share then maybe the 2 Brians will get lucky. It all depends now on outside factors.    The government has very few choices. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Zapatista on October 04, 2010, 01:20:07 PM
Quote from: seafoid on October 04, 2010, 11:35:42 AM
The government has very few choices.

It has to be one of two things that has made the price of borrowing very high. Either they are hinging something or they don't know what they are doing. Two years of revising the cost of the bail out from the cheapest in the world to the most expencive in the world has left everyone asking themselves "will this freefall ever end?".

The Government could choose to be honest and tell us where this is going (too late for that maybe as they have cried wolf). If they have been telling us lies they should bite the bullet and call an election as they are not fit for office. If they are being honest and just got it badly wrong then they are clearly not able for the job and should call an election. If there is an election it will keep the Irish public from taking to the streets. If there isn't the pot will eventually boil over and we will take to the streets in angry numbers and force an election which will have a bad effect on our status. It would be worth it though as it would only be short term and we'd be rid of these FF blood suckers.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: MCMLX on October 04, 2010, 02:54:08 PM
I cant see the Irish public ever taking to the streets. They seem to be content to complain from the comfort of their own homes and allow their government to destroy the country and whats left of the economy. I would love to be wrong on this one but cant see it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Zapatista on October 04, 2010, 03:40:08 PM
Quote from: MCMLX on October 04, 2010, 02:54:08 PM
I cant see the Irish public ever taking to the streets. They seem to be content to complain from the comfort of their own homes and allow their government to destroy the country and whats left of the economy. I would love to be wrong on this one but cant see it.

I think the main thing that keeps us at home and off the streets is our high personal debt. We are shackled by debt. We are almost afraid to upset anyone and want to keep our heads down and live in hope that what is being said and done is the right thing. Many of us are slave to the debt. We will never be able to act freely again as we will always be thinking about the money we owe and our ability to repay it. It's easy to get angry and upset about the State bailouts but it's not so easy when it's personal debt.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: MCMLX on October 04, 2010, 03:54:27 PM
I have no personal debt, but if I did I would be expecting a dig out from the government. If the can bail the banks out to the tune of billions then why cant the bail the average Joe out, what is the difference?
A friend of ours bought a house in 2007 with the help of a 100% mortgage, despite us pleading with him to hold tight. He has a €1500 a month mortgage and is about to lose his job because of government cutbacks. His partner is a school teacher who has been hit by some sort of government levy. The house is worth at least 100k less than he paid for it and although he now realises he was foolish to say the least, there is simply no help out there for him and thousands of others like him who were sold a dream that has become a bit of a nightmare that has no end in sight. His health is suffering because of the stress, which is unsurprising.
I told him to move back north, take the woman with him and rent a house. Renting would save him roughly €800 a month and the cost of living is considerably cheaper. She wont hear of it. Either way they have no financial future.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: balladmaker on October 04, 2010, 04:07:34 PM
What is the real life impact of a country defaulting on its debt?



Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Rossie11 on October 04, 2010, 04:17:28 PM
McWilliams latest piece
http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2010/10/04/no-hope-for-blind-optimism

Countdown to Paddys day 2011
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: armaghniac on October 04, 2010, 04:19:33 PM
QuoteI have no personal debt, but if I did I would be expecting a dig out from the government. If the can bail the banks out to the tune of billions then why cant the bail the average Joe out, what is the difference?
A friend of ours bought a house in 2007 with the help of a 100% mortgage, despite us pleading with him to hold tight

The "government" doesn't help out indebted people, it all comes from other taxpayers. Other taxpayers will be pressed hard enough with their own wage cuts and higher taxes without having to bail out the person next door who bought a house "despite us pleading with him to hold tight".
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: seafoid on October 04, 2010, 05:36:48 PM
Quote from: balladmaker on October 04, 2010, 04:07:34 PM
What is the real life impact of a country defaulting on its debt?

Lenders are less likely to lend it money in future. Ireland is currently borrowing €19bn a year just to pay the day to day bills.  The banks are on top of that.

If the government defaulted on its own debt then there would be no more borrowing for a few years and you would need to cut spending by €19 bn or around 30% of total spending. so social welfare would fall by 30% t 140 a week and gardai and teachers would get 30%pay cuts and 30%of hospitals would close as would 30% f schools. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: MCMLX on October 04, 2010, 09:20:36 PM
Would it not be sensible to implement 30% cuts to everything in Ireland. End the likes of the medical card scheme, rent allowance, etc. if they could do this then the day to day living costs would have to follow suit. Or am I being a bit idealistic/simplistic?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Bogball XV on October 04, 2010, 11:06:24 PM
Quote from: MCMLX on October 04, 2010, 03:54:27 PM
I have no personal debt, but if I did I would be expecting a dig out from the government. If the can bail the banks out to the tune of billions then why cant the bail the average Joe out, what is the difference?
A friend of ours bought a house in 2007 with the help of a 100% mortgage, despite us pleading with him to hold tight. He has a €1500 a month mortgage and is about to lose his job because of government cutbacks. His partner is a school teacher who has been hit by some sort of government levy. The house is worth at least 100k less than he paid for it and although he now realises he was foolish to say the least, there is simply no help out there for him and thousands of others like him who were sold a dream that has become a bit of a nightmare that has no end in sight. His health is suffering because of the stress, which is unsurprising.
I told him to move back north, take the woman with him and rent a house. Renting would save him roughly €800 a month and the cost of living is considerably cheaper. She wont hear of it. Either way they have no financial future.

They're not in that bad a position.  She probably makes about 53K, probably takes in 1150 per fortnight after tax, he will get unemployment benefit of €205 a week (don't think unemployment has been cut yet). 
They go north what happens?  She has no job, he has no job, dole is 60 odd quid a week, rent is £700 odd (400-500 quid will be paid for them?).  They become bankrupt in the south and judgments are obtained by their bank to pursue them into the north.....

Better off where they are I think.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Zapatista on October 04, 2010, 11:34:08 PM
Quote from: MCMLX on October 04, 2010, 09:20:36 PM
Would it not be sensible to implement 30% cuts to everything in Ireland. End the likes of the medical card scheme, rent allowance, etc. if they could do this then the day to day living costs would have to follow suit. Or am I being a bit idealistic/simplistic?

If you end the medical card scheme it just means more people die on the HSE. The exchequer is dependant on spending to raise mush of it's revenue. If you cut the benefits you cut the spending and it makes little difference. It just means more small business' close and probably do further damage. There is room for improvment though. Due to the personal debt out there it's hard to be sure that the cost of living would fall to match price cuts. People will still need to earn a good wage to pay their debts from before the bust.

Quote from: balladmaker on October 04, 2010, 04:07:34 PM
What is the real life impact of a country defaulting on its debt?

We get bailed out ;D We are in the bad books for a while and lending stops and the country is run on a shoe string and then we get to a place were an investment in Ireland looks profitable and we're back in business.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: balladmaker on October 04, 2010, 11:55:57 PM
QuoteLenders are less likely to lend it money in future. Ireland is currently borrowing €19bn a year just to pay the day to day bills.  The banks are on top of that.

If the government defaulted on its own debt then there would be no more borrowing for a few years and you would need to cut spending by €19 bn or around 30% of total spending. so social welfare would fall by 30% t 140 a week and gardai and teachers would get 30%pay cuts and 30%of hospitals would close as would 30% f schools. 

So financial armageddon for a few years then.  The reason I asked the question in the first place is because defaulting on debt is going to happen.  I would be shocked if the government do not already have the date of the default in mind.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Zapatista on October 05, 2010, 12:13:20 AM
Quote from: balladmaker on October 04, 2010, 11:55:57 PM
QuoteLenders are less likely to lend it money in future. Ireland is currently borrowing €19bn a year just to pay the day to day bills.  The banks are on top of that.

If the government defaulted on its own debt then there would be no more borrowing for a few years and you would need to cut spending by €19 bn or around 30% of total spending. so social welfare would fall by 30% t 140 a week and gardai and teachers would get 30%pay cuts and 30%of hospitals would close as would 30% f schools. 

So financial armageddon for a few years then.  The reason I asked the question in the first place is because defaulting on debt is going to happen.  I would be shocked if the government do not already have the date of the default in mind.

I don't think so. If we default we are no good to anyone. If we remain in huge debt we can be the whipping boys of Europe. Everyones a winner. execpt us that is but that's secondary.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: fearbrags on October 05, 2010, 03:29:25 AM
http://www.youtube.com/user/jbyeats
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on October 05, 2010, 04:31:07 PM
Quote from: fearbrags on October 05, 2010, 03:29:25 AM
http://www.youtube.com/user/jbyeats

He is what I imagine Tyrone's Own looks like.


In all seriousness if you have followed this thread there are plenty of posters here who have warned of this type of crisis for quite a while now. The bond markets don't believe our Government of Minister for Finance  anymore. We are now Greece except that the stupid citizens here still actually believe Lenihan. Look at the polls ffs, they want him made Taoiseach.

I think the video above is light on facts (his mate in London!?) but I think the truth is actually worse than he thinks it is.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: bcarrier on October 05, 2010, 05:05:55 PM
With the effect of reduced tax take on lower wages you would probably have to lower public sector wages by about 50% ( not 30%) to get the books balanced.

Exiting the euro to devalue the currency and implement the cuts by stealth should at least be considered.   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on October 05, 2010, 06:20:47 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on October 05, 2010, 05:05:55 PM
With the effect of reduced tax take on lower wages you would probably have to lower public sector wages by about 50% ( not 30%) to get the books balanced.

Exiting the euro to devalue the currency and implement the cuts by stealth should at least be considered.

Would this not increase the debt (and repayments) even higher which is now the immediate problem.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Pangurban on October 05, 2010, 09:31:40 PM
Lets get some perspective here, and describe these draconian cuts, as what they are ... Child Abuse on a grand scale.
Generations off Irish children are going to be reared in poverty, deprived off proper educational and health facilities, and all for what, to bail out greedy private companies who lent recklessly and without due diligence. To protect their cabal of rich associates, our lying Government insist a bail out is necessary. Well Finland have exposed this lie. They left the Banks to wallow in their debt and deprivation, and refused a bail out. There was no adverse reaction from Europe or the Bond Markets, who are financial realists. Finland is now paying less interest to borrow money from the markets than we are and their economy is in recovery. Are Irish Children less important than the greedy bankers, or do we only get angry about child abuse when it is sexual and the Church are the culprits. When are the citizens of the dung heap which is now the so called Irish Republic, going to wake up, stop their impotent whining and take their country back. The Prime Minister of Finland is to be charged in a court of law with neglect, their fraudelent Bankers are in jail. Here in this fantasy land we are told no one done anything wrong. Is Child Abuse no longer a crime
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: MCMLX on October 05, 2010, 09:40:16 PM
Quote from: Pangurban on October 05, 2010, 09:31:40 PM
When are the citizens of the dung heap which is now the so called Irish Republic, going to wake up, stop their impotent whining and take their country back. The Prime Minister of Finland is to be charged in a court of law with neglect, their fraudelent Bankers are in jail. Here in this fantasy land we are told no one done anything wrong. Is Child Abuse no longer a crime

I keep asking the same question, but there does not seem to be an answer. No one seems to be willing to stand up and say STOP.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on October 05, 2010, 10:19:11 PM
Quote from: Gnevin on September 30, 2008, 01:20:41 PM
Surely the Irish banks are solid now?

Just thought I'd post this, for a laugh.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: bennydorano on October 05, 2010, 10:26:50 PM
Why do they not just accept the IMF bailout? The terms would be less stringent than the selfimposed flagilation that they seem keen  to inflict on the public for years to come.  As a northerner lookin on it just looks such a clusterfuck, i'm amazed at how the Irish public keep bending over to take more, spineless. If it  were France there'd be lynchings of politicians & bankers in the street. Fair play to the Finnish.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Bogball XV on October 05, 2010, 11:38:48 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 05, 2010, 06:20:47 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on October 05, 2010, 05:05:55 PM
With the effect of reduced tax take on lower wages you would probably have to lower public sector wages by about 50% ( not 30%) to get the books balanced.

Exiting the euro to devalue the currency and implement the cuts by stealth should at least be considered.

Would this not increase the debt (and repayments) even higher which is now the immediate problem.
Because we would now be paid in a new currency, lets call it the reichpunt for simplicity, the govt could do the following:
Initially 1 reichpunt = 1 euro

All govt expenditure in Ireland is in reichpunts (RP's), the govt devalues the currency (pretty much against IMF rules).  The RP is now worth 0.25Euro or 4RP = 1 euro.  We're still paying everybody the same, but the 4 billion euro we're borrowing from outside goes 4 times further.  Whilst we still have to pay back our borrowings in euro, we don't need as many of them. 
It would also work wonders with the housing market, your property worth 1.9 million at the height of the market will be worth 1.9 million again, your mortgage taken out in euro would of course be transferred to RP's at 1:1 intitially will be out of negative equity in no time etc etc etc.
Once more the bank guarantee raises its ugly head as it would negate some of the benefits of devaluation in that our state woned banks would still have to repay all their previous borrowings in euro.

The only tiny flaws in this are that nobody would lend us anything as we're small insignificant and even more peripheral than ever, there'd be no prospect of us attracting outside investment as we're shown to be politically unstable with a very unstable currency (an additional risk for would be investors), we would hardly win any friends in europe, our main markets, as we've just fcuked them over.  Whilst it's true that our exports would be cheaper, since we make nothing (bar a few computers and drugs which are normally made in truly low cost economies before being shipped to ireland and having a little value added to them to adhere to EU transfer pricing legislation) that would not be a huge benefit.  Massive inflation woud be very probable.  All in all it would be a disaster from which this republic might not recover.

Forgive any inaccuracies as to how a devaluation would work, but it's been a while since gcse economics.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: armaghniac on October 05, 2010, 11:40:39 PM
QuoteFair play to the Finnish.

I think people are confusing Finland with Iceland.

Ireland may well end up borrowing from the Euro fund if things don't settle down. They'd be crazy to borrow at higher rates.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: bennydorano on October 05, 2010, 11:57:55 PM
It's been touted as a genuine option for Greece, why not the banana republic. Saving face seems to be the main priority of Irish politics. Admiting failure on such a huge scale isn't going to happen and the € will not be allowed to fail.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on October 06, 2010, 12:11:34 AM
Quote from: Bogball XV on October 05, 2010, 11:38:48 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 05, 2010, 06:20:47 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on October 05, 2010, 05:05:55 PM
With the effect of reduced tax take on lower wages you would probably have to lower public sector wages by about 50% ( not 30%) to get the books balanced.

Exiting the euro to devalue the currency and implement the cuts by stealth should at least be considered.

Would this not increase the debt (and repayments) even higher which is now the immediate problem.
Because we would now be paid in a new currency, lets call it the reichpunt for simplicity, the govt could do the following:
Initially 1 reichpunt = 1 euro

All govt expenditure in Ireland is in reichpunts (RP's), the govt devalues the currency (pretty much against IMF rules).  The RP is now worth 0.25Euro or 4RP = 1 euro.  We're still paying everybody the same, but the 4 billion euro we're borrowing from outside goes 4 times further.  Whilst we still have to pay back our borrowings in euro, we don't need as many of them. 
It would also work wonders with the housing market, your property worth 1.9 million at the height of the market will be worth 1.9 million again, your mortgage taken out in euro would of course be transferred to RP's at 1:1 intitially will be out of negative equity in no time etc etc etc.
Once more the bank guarantee raises its ugly head as it would negate some of the benefits of devaluation in that our state woned banks would still have to repay all their previous borrowings in euro.

The only tiny flaws in this are that nobody would lend us anything as we're small insignificant and even more peripheral than ever, there'd be no prospect of us attracting outside investment as we're shown to be politically unstable with a very unstable currency (an additional risk for would be investors), we would hardly win any friends in europe, our main markets, as we've just fcuked them over.  Whilst it's true that our exports would be cheaper, since we make nothing (bar a few computers and drugs which are normally made in truly low cost economies before being shipped to ireland and having a little value added to them to adhere to EU transfer pricing legislation) that would not be a huge benefit.  Massive inflation woud be very probable.  All in all it would be a disaster from which this republic might not recover.

Forgive any inaccuracies as to how a devaluation would work, but it's been a while since gcse economics.

Wouldn't this happen with the sovereign debt also?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: bcarrier on October 06, 2010, 09:10:13 AM
Quote from: Bogball XV on October 05, 2010, 11:38:48 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 05, 2010, 06:20:47 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on October 05, 2010, 05:05:55 PM
With the effect of reduced tax take on lower wages you would probably have to lower public sector wages by about 50% ( not 30%) to get the books balanced.

Exiting the euro to devalue the currency and implement the cuts by stealth should at least be considered.

Would this not increase the debt (and repayments) even higher which is now the immediate problem.
Because we would now be paid in a new currency, lets call it the reichpunt for simplicity, the govt could do the following:
Initially 1 reichpunt = 1 euro

All govt expenditure in Ireland is in reichpunts (RP's), the govt devalues the currency (pretty much against IMF rules).  The RP is now worth 0.25Euro or 4RP = 1 euro.  We're still paying everybody the same, but the 4 billion euro we're borrowing from outside goes 4 times further.  Whilst we still have to pay back our borrowings in euro, we don't need as many of them. 
It would also work wonders with the housing market, your property worth 1.9 million at the height of the market will be worth 1.9 million again, your mortgage taken out in euro would of course be transferred to RP's at 1:1 intitially will be out of negative equity in no time etc etc etc.
Once more the bank guarantee raises its ugly head as it would negate some of the benefits of devaluation in that our state woned banks would still have to repay all their previous borrowings in euro.

The only tiny flaws in this are that nobody would lend us anything as we're small insignificant and even more peripheral than ever, there'd be no prospect of us attracting outside investment as we're shown to be politically unstable with a very unstable currency (an additional risk for would be investors), we would hardly win any friends in europe, our main markets, as we've just fcuked them over.  Whilst it's true that our exports would be cheaper, since we make nothing (bar a few computers and drugs which are normally made in truly low cost economies before being shipped to ireland and having a little value added to them to adhere to EU transfer pricing legislation) that would not be a huge benefit.  Massive inflation woud be very probable.  All in all it would be a disaster from which this republic might not recover.

Forgive any inaccuracies as to how a devaluation would work, but it's been a while since gcse economics.

Thats pretty much as I understand it too BB. I think if you are doing this the bank guarantee would have to fall away at the same time so that bit of it could be dealt with. The reputational issue is another thing altogether though and it is pretty much unknown how much punishment would be dished out by our euro partners and the markets.

There would be implications for multinationals if there was a more volatile currency and I would be worried about being excluded from european markets through tariffs etc ...access to finance after the effective default is probably less of an issue in my opinion ( if the country gets its books balanced through the process) ....markets have short memories.

Maybe a public debate would be counterproductive but I hope that behind the scenes every option is being considered....pre euro this is how we would have resolved the problem. 

A final thought ....If we were to get excluded from europe we could extract revenge by  reinventing Ireland as an offshore tax haven.

   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: seafoid on October 06, 2010, 10:36:15 AM
Quote from: bennydorano on October 05, 2010, 10:26:50 PM
Why do they not just accept the IMF bailout? The terms would be less stringent than the selfimposed flagilation that they seem keen  to inflict on the public for years to come.  As a northerner lookin on it just looks such a clusterfuck, i'm amazed at how the Irish public keep bending over to take more, spineless. If it  were France there'd be lynchings of politicians & bankers in the street. Fair play to the Finnish.


Because the only thing the IMF care about is reducing the deficit. They don't care how many people die or lose their homes - it is all  about the deficit. 

The 3% target by 2014 is probably not do-able without destroying the economy.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on October 06, 2010, 11:15:35 AM
Quote from: seafoid on October 06, 2010, 10:36:15 AM
Quote from: bennydorano on October 05, 2010, 10:26:50 PM
Why do they not just accept the IMF bailout? The terms would be less stringent than the selfimposed flagilation that they seem keen  to inflict on the public for years to come.  As a northerner lookin on it just looks such a clusterfuck, i'm amazed at how the Irish public keep bending over to take more, spineless. If it  were France there'd be lynchings of politicians & bankers in the street. Fair play to the Finnish.


Because the only thing the IMF care about is reducing the deficit. They don't care how many people die or lose their homes - it is all  about the deficit. 

The 3% target by 2014 is probably not do-able without destroying the economy.

Are they not also extremely right-wing in their ideology? Imagine putting Tyrone's Own in charge of the Health Service and Education and you might get the idea.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: seafoid on October 06, 2010, 12:42:50 PM
This is a very good article and spells out some of the possible alternatives to the
current suicidal strategy.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2010/1006/1224280471558.html

One point about the European bailout fund is that the boxwallahs in charge of it do not want it to be used.  Greece was just about acceptable but if Ireland goes in then Portugal and Spain will follow and after that anything could happen. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on October 06, 2010, 01:01:43 PM
Quote from: seafoid on October 06, 2010, 12:42:50 PM
This is a very good article and spells out some of the possible alternatives to the
current suicidal strategy.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2010/1006/1224280471558.html

One point about the European bailout fund is that the boxwallahs in charge of it do not want it to be used.  Greece was just about acceptable but if Ireland goes in then Portugal and Spain will follow and after that anything could happen.

Interesting article. Kinsella, unlike most of what we see, hear and read in our media, is an unbiased commentator and was warning about the coming crisis for a long time.

Update: Fitch cuts Ireland's rating (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/1006/breaking27.html)

Going, going...............
Title: My simple understanding
Post by: muppet on October 06, 2010, 01:56:35 PM
(This particular) Idiot's guide to what has happened:

Causes and who to blame for our crisis
* Eurozone low interest rate - ECB prioritising needs of German economy over others
* Section 23 and other tax reliefs create bubble - FF/PD mainly
* We create a Financial Regulator without clearly defining roles for it and the Central Bank - Mary Harney
* 'Light touch regulation' - McCreevy(see note below)/Harney
* A couple of banks start to recklessly lend fueling bubble - Anglo + INBS
* Excess tax revenue from Stamp Duty increases waste in public sector - FF/PD + Trade Unions
* 'Respected' banks belatedly decide to join the gravy train - AIB, BOI, BOS etc
* Some wealthy individuals allow greed and ego to completely get the better of them - Quinn, Dunne, MacNamara, Carroll etc
* Commentators who warn of over-dependency of economy on property slated as unpatriotic - FF/PD + media
* General Public believe their government and media - all of us
* International banking crisis - all of the above for leaving us totally exposed to such a shock

Government reaction to Liquidity crisis

* Blanket Bank Guarantee - to avoid any banks either failing or being nationalised, or both.

When that didn't work what did they do?

* Created NAMA predominantly to stabilise property prices and hopefully put a floor on the banks losses

When that didn't work what did they do?

Well nothing really they are severely handicapped by the decisions already made. The Government have to take huge amounts of money out of the economy (PS cuts and tax increases) just to pay for all of the above on a short term basis. By doing that they destroy the economy's ability to grow and thus to increase Government revenue which would be the only hope of paying for everything.

Think of starving Irish peasants selling all of the food they grew to pay rent to the Landlords.

For 'starving' read debt-laden, for 'food' read economic production and for Landlords read a complex conglomerate of faceless financial entities.

So what should we do?

God only knows, but we should start by taking the shovel off Lenihan, Cowen, Harney, Department of Finance and in particular the banks.


Note: For balance, while I am not a fan, it should be pointed out that if McCreevy hadn't created the National Pension Reserve we probably would have gone bankrupt last week.

I would encourage people to point out where I have got it wrong, in particularly Bogball and Seafoid who have a very good understanding of what is going on, but anyone else feel free to add to list above or change it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Evil Genius on October 06, 2010, 02:22:03 PM
Quote from: seafoid on October 06, 2010, 12:42:50 PM
This is a very good article and spells out some of the possible alternatives to the
current suicidal strategy.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2010/1006/1224280471558.html

One point about the European bailout fund is that the boxwallahs in charge of it do not want it to be used.  Greece was just about acceptable but if Ireland goes in then Portugal and Spain will follow and after that anything could happen.
By "very good" don't you actually mean "very agreeable"?

Even after a decade or more spent previously in The City etc, I don't claim a very in depth understanding of such matters, but as I read down that Article I thought it possibly the worst commentary I've seen since the crisis really took hold.

The question that the Government is now asking is: "How do you suggest we find the additional cuts to fund Ireland's bank-debt-swollen current deficit?"

The proper response is that this is the wrong question. The correct one is: "Since the only sustainable way that Ireland can bridge the yawning current budget gap is to grow the economy, and since even greater cuts will further decimate an already weak domestic sector [without having any real impact on the now grotesque deficit], how should we now adapt our mindset and institutions to grow the economy?"


"How should we adapt out mindset etc?" It's too late for that - Ireland's "credit" (actual and metaphorical) has run out. The Govt knows that, which is why it is desperately trying to answer the only question on the Examination Paper in front of them.

The answer to this is: inform the European Commission and the council that it would be counterproductive for Ireland to attempt to adhere to the 3 per cent deficit target; that it will take 10 years to rebuild the economy and that the focus of all political parties and stakeholders is to produce a strategy that is credible, one which will not further exacerbate volatile markets when – as is inevitable – Ireland fails to achieve the present target.

Ireland is in no position to "inform" the EU of anything, much less offer a naughty child's promise to Santa on Christmas Eve that "I will really, really behave like a good boy for the whole of next year, if only I can get my present for this year"

The European authorities will be riveted by the appalling vista of a departure by Ireland from the current orthodoxy, which imposes a premature and excessive adjustment on a highly vulnerable domestic and EU economy. The markets will be understandably concerned at the "moral hazard" – the possibility of backsliding on deficit reduction across the euro zone. Yet which is the more credible: pushing ahead with a programme of cuts that cannot possibly deliver on the 3 per cent target, but which will certainly set back recovery for a generation or, alternatively, the reconstruction of an economy by a nation that can now see the whites of the IMF's eyes? There are 50 billion reasons for believing the latter more credible.

Completely misses the point. The EU simply does not care if Ireland's 3% target is unachievable and so will lead to severe economic distress in Ireland when failing to meet it.

Rather, they are much more concerned with sending a message to the other bigger and more important states who think they can wander right up to the brink like Ireland, on the basis that the EU will give them a safety net. That's what "moral hazard" really means.


We can choose to adhere to a budgetary strategy that has demonstrably failed; or we can use what little time we have left, courtesy of the foresight of NTMA pre-funding sovereign borrowing into early 2011, to build a new paradigm. We have done so before.

There is no time left...

There are four options facing our country.

The first is to continue to focus, for all practical purposes, exclusively on fiscal correction. Government policy up to a week ago was set for yet another deflationary budget, taking some €3 billion out of the economy. This will now be increased to €4 billion. The aim, however, will be the same: to reduce a wholly exceptional deficit, inflated by the most recent costs of rescuing banks, to 3 per cent of GDP by 2014. This won't happen. The Government's decision to maintain the 3 per cent deficit target reflects a state of denial.


The only reason the Govt has accepted the 3% target is beccause the EU has granted them no other option. I mean, it must be so - they've been denying everything else up to now, why would they suddenly start behaving responsibly if they still had any wriggle room left?

The second option is to seek external assistance from the EU/IMF stabilisation scheme. The illusion persists that there is a difference; that such intervention need not involve the IMF. Here is what the EU council said last May in setting up the scheme, precisely to mitigate the possibility of what is now under way in Ireland: "We have decided to establish a European stabilisation mechanism . . . its activation is subject to strong conditionality, in the context of a joint EU/IMF support, and will be on terms and conditions similar to the IMF."

The ESM is merely the EU's attempt to retain some control if/when a Member State should default. As such, it is a bit of a "fig leaf", since everyone knows that it can never have enough money to bale out more than one or two of the lesser economies. And it must do all it can to avoid having to do even that, in case there is a rush by the next tier of defaulters to get their claim in before the fund runs out

Some may argue that the IMF will sort out problems that we have been unable to. If that is the case, it is a bleak commentary on the capacity of an ancient and cultured people to manage its affairs and act as responsible trustees for those who come after us. It takes little account of the impact of an EU/IMF "adjustment" strategy on a broken-backed economy and a society that is overstressed, demoralised and fearful.

The Greeks might also consider themselves to be "an ancient and cultured people" - for all the good that did them when the ECB etc came to call

It may also underestimate the probability of precipitating a slide into political fragmentation and destructive revolutionary nihilism. We know something about that possibility in this country – and it poses a threat to the EU, as it does to us.

There are several countries, big and small, in the EU which are far more likely to have a "Red Revolution" etc than the ROI. Greece, for example...

There is no indication that our political system has comprehended that it must change. The present budgetary policy would crowd out the kind of capacity building in education, innovation and social capital which is vital to rebuilding the country. The cuts do not go with the grain of growth and necessary reforms; they are brutal and insensitive to their medium-term effects. But they foreshadow what EU/IMF intervention would entail. That and a complete loss of control over whatever residual influence the Dáil exercises on our budgetary policy and over the freedom to exercise individual and collective responsibility. The IMF/EU will not be about development. They want fiscal correction at whatever cost – rebuilding the economy is not on their agenda.

At last! He gets something right (last sentence)

The third option is an election. The Opposition are fully within their rights in demanding one. There is a visceral anger among the electorate at the manner in which policies and policy failures have wholly altered the trajectory of our economy, hollowed out our society and transmitted a malign legacy to our children. Incalculable damage has been done to Ireland's reputation. This is not, nor should it be, about political "blame". It's about survival in a sceptical world.

In the aftermath of an election, the key issue will be whether a new administration will continue to feel bound to an adjustment process that attempts to do the impossible by 2014. The indications are it will. That's the problem; there appears to be no mainstream political alternative to a failed orthodoxy.

There is no" mainstream political alternative", even for a new Govt, because,the option of leaving the EU is unthinkable and whilst Ireland is in it, the EU will give them no economic alternative.

The fourth option means a decade-long rebuilding of an economy gifted with renewable resources, a uniquely favourable demographic profile and a corporation tax regime which is under siege. It would allow Ireland to focus on, for example, leveraging the EU's technology transfer programme. It would also mean shedding our present institutional baggage in favour of trust-building, flexibility and social solidarity. It would mean a much smaller, less intrusive and costly state than that which has encouraged a culture of dependency – and failed us.

Ireland doesn't have a decade, so everything which follows his opening line is mere "wishful thinking". That is, Option 4 does't exist any more than the Pot of gold at the end of the Rainbow.

Ireland's self-inflicted difficulties are Europe's problem. The Stability and Growth Pact was, from the outset, political fudge, which the commission's most recent oversight/enforcement proposals will not resolve. The embedded contradictions within the EU, as it is constituted, leave it wide open to low probability/high-impact shocks.

Attempting to compel Ireland to adjust to an unprecedented fiscal crisis within a short timeframe is the logically absurd outcome of the pact – an instrument to achieve fiscal union between structurally different economies.

Fiscal consolidation is a necessary part of adjustment, but only in an economy being rebuilt over a period that is commensurate with the scale of the adjustment. The stasis in our political response to a crisis that requires a completely different starting point from the mindset which has brought us to the brink suggests that, even now, we still do not get it.


"Don't get it?" This entire article is like a Fifth Former's essay on "What I'd do if I won the Lottery". Face facts: you're not going to win the Lottery if you can't buy a bloody ticket, ffs!

P.S. Before anyone should assume I take some sort of pleasure in posting this, I most certainly don't, for two reasons.

First, there are a lot of very decent people in ROI who had no part in causing the crisis, but will have to bear the cost of clearing it up.

Second, the overspill on the NI economy will be considerable, at a time when we've already got quite enough on our own plate.
Title: Re: My simple understanding
Post by: seafoid on October 06, 2010, 02:32:39 PM
Good man Muppet. Here are my suggestions in bold

Causes and who to blame for our crisis

* Eurozone low interest rate - ECB prioritising needs of German economy over others
* Section 23 and other tax reliefs create bubble - FF/PD mainly
* We create a Financial Regulator without clearly defining roles for it and the Central Bank - Mary Harney
* 'Light touch regulation' - McCreevy(see note below)/Harney
* Absence of any effective management of the mortgage market- banks could lend anything they wanted as there were no capital implications - banks should have had to hold more capital when the market started to overheat
* Allowing of 100% mortgages and higher salary multiples for people who were priced out of the market
* A couple of banks start to recklessly lend fueling bubble - Anglo + INBS
* Excess tax revenue from Stamp Duty increases waste in public sector - FF/PD + Trade Unions
* 'Respected' banks belatedly decide to join the gravy train - AIB, BOI, BOS etc
* Some wealthy individuals allow greed and ego to completely get the better of them - Quinn, Dunne, MacNamara, Carroll etc
* Commentators who warn of over-dependency of economy on property slated as unpatriotic - FF/PD + media
* General Public believe their government and media - all of us
* Media egging on the boom as it drove huge advertising income
* Bank reliance on wholesale funding abroad of mortgage lending- deposits were insufficient so they borrowed heavily from elsewhere in the EU
* Bank dependence on one source of income for their profits- they were all monoliners with each house bet on the property market
* Bank lend long borrow cheap model - when Lehmans went suddenly they could no longer roll over their funding loans  
* International banking crisis - all of the above for leaving us totally exposed to such a shock- the crash would have happened anyway. lehman Brothers is not an excuse 
* EU panjandrums who insist on no bondholder left behind policy thus crucifying taxpayers
* Recalibration of tax system to heavy dependence on transaction taxes related to property market
* Inflation of public sector wages without corresponding improvements in productivity
* rampant price inflation which put upward pressure on salaries and led to significantly reduced competitiveness


Government reaction to Liquidity crisis


* Blanket Bank Guarantee - to avoid any banks either failing or being nationalised, or both.
* complete lack of preparedness for a crash even after Northern rock and Bearn Sterns collapsed
* total panic on night banks came in begging for help
* Lack of transparency on behalf of banks on fateful night (generous interpretation)
* Confusion of liquidity and solvency

* belief in soft landing
* Refusal to countenance nationalisation at outset 
* absence of bank resolution legislation meant bankrupt bank losses fell to taxpayer 
 
* Consistent inability of banking CEOs to accept gravity of situation
* Government adopts Hail Mary policy and hopes everything will be fine

* Very poor PR management - why was everyone on holidays in august when yields went over 6% ?

When that didn't work what did they do?


* Created NAMA predominantly to stabilise property prices and hopefully put a floor on the banks losses

When that didn't work what did they do?

Well nothing really they are severely handicapped by the decisions already made. The Government have to take huge amounts of money out of the economy (PS cuts and tax increases) just to pay for all of the above on a short term basis. By doing that they destroy the economy's ability to grow and thus to increase Government revenue which would be the only hope of paying for everything.

Think of starving Irish peasants selling all of the food they grew to pay rent to the Landlords.

For 'starving' read debt-laden, for 'food' read economic production and for Landlords read a complex conglomerate of faceless financial entities.

So what should we do?

God only knows, but we should start by taking the shovel off Lenihan, Cowen, Harney, Department of Finance and in particular the banks.

Note: For balance, while I am not a fan, it should be pointed out that if McCreevy hadn't created the National Pension Reserve we have have gone bankrupt last week.

I would encourage people to point out where I have got it wrong, in particularly Bogball and Seafoid who have a very good understanding of what is going, but anyone else feel free to add to list above or change it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: theskull1 on October 06, 2010, 02:46:03 PM
Regarding the early stages of the greed culture which developed in Ireland.....

Have no expertise in this area but do any who do think that the profits made in the tax year as a result of the price mark ups when the punt changed to the euro created a very large greed culture as every business tried to maintian that level of profit year in year out after that? Then all that extra profit provided the right ammount of money for property speculation to become rife?

Just a thought
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on October 06, 2010, 02:46:36 PM
Quote
* Bank lend long borrow cheap model - when Lehmans went suddenly they could no longer roll over their funding loans 

That explains a lot and why Government keep harping on about Lehman's without ever expanding on it.

Quote
* Confusion of liquidity and solvency

Did they really confuse it or disguise it? AFAIK solvency issues were included in the emergency guarantee legislation.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on October 06, 2010, 02:50:24 PM
Quote from: theskull1 on October 06, 2010, 02:46:03 PM
Regarding the early stages of the greed culture which developed in Ireland.....

Have no expertise in this area but do any who do think that the profits made in the tax year as a result of the price mark ups when the punt changed to the euro created a very large greed culture as every business tried to maintian that level of profit year in year out after that? Then all that extra profit provided the right ammount of money for property speculation to become rife?

Just a thought

The first thing that strikes me is that you have a point, however lots of other countries joined the euro that time (and since) and haven't had the same problem. Maybe their Governments managed it better.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: bcarrier on October 06, 2010, 04:06:04 PM
I have been reading this time its different...there is a good summary here. 

http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2010/04/debts-and-defaults-in-history.html

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_D9-JNTtRKgs/S9mgetVmgGI/AAAAAAAAAuc/OJq_PCN08CE/s400/Picture+913.png)


(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_D9-JNTtRKgs/S9mnpa8yqlI/AAAAAAAAAuk/VcQQioc59eA/s400/Picture+914.png)

One of the things that struck me in the book was their observation that it is not the level of debt ( compared to GDP) but the willingness of a countries citizens to carry it ( their debt tolerance) that influences likelihood of default.  Why stop with the anglo subordinated bond holders ?


Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on October 06, 2010, 06:28:24 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=11CCxv2ueiQ (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=11CCxv2ueiQ)

Morgan Kelly the day after the Bank Guarantee. He was right on the money and I wonder how the smirking Brendan Keenan feels now. Keenan (Indo man defending the Government's action, surprise surprise) actually says
that .....'if it is (the same as) a Swedish banking crisis then it (Guarantee) wont work and they'll have made a horrible mistake.." see 8:20.

It is uncanny how right Kelly was, with the one criticism that he underestimated how bad it would be. If he had said €50 Billion Keenan and O'Callaghan would have laughed him out of it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Declan on October 07, 2010, 12:09:16 PM
Gene Kerrigan: Listen to the experts? I'm not so sure
Sunday October 03 2010
OKAY, then, shut your stupid mouth. You have no right to an opinion on these matters. Unless that opinion concurs with that of the Minister for Finance. Should a dissenting opinion sneak into your subversive mind, you must not express it publicly. Leave it to the experts.

That's what Brian Lenihan said (or words to that effect), in a notorious recent speech. "Some of our [newspaper] columnists", the minister warned, "might question the value they can add to the debate". This rap on the knuckles, of course, also applies to all citizens who aspire to partake in the national debate of which newspaper columns are a part.

Heed the experts. "There are after all, very many accomplished specialist columnists in the area of business and economics."

And the media seems to be weighing in. Time to shut the hell up. Close down discussion, take your opinions from The People Who Know About These Things. (Never mind the fact that the experts have been wrong again, and again and again -- on the bubble, on the bank guarantee, on the effects of deflating the economy.)

Now, this column has never been shy about stressing its ignorance of the technicalities of economics. In fact, in just a moment, I will produce irrefutable evidence of my ignorance -- nay, my sheer thickness -- when it comes to matters of deficits, banking debacles and blanket guarantees.

But first -- if we're going to isolate or snuff out dissenting voices -- we need to be clear about who will be allowed express opinions on economics. Mr Peter Sutherland, the banker, has recently been widely and prominently welcomed to the debate, urging austerity on us. Is this the same expert who in April 2008 told us we could "confidently look forward to continuing growth above the EU average for the next five years and beyond"? Yup, 'tis him.

(And what was Soapbox saying that April? It was a whole year since the column had warned that the US economy was in trouble because of subprime mortgages, and now it lamented that the experts urged us "to continue borrowing with wild abandon". There's ignorance for you.)

Jim O'Leary is an expert. Mr Lenihan has just appointed him "senior economic advisor" at the Department of Finance. Is Mr Lenihan now about to take advice from an economist who was a director of AIB between 2002 and 2008, when the bank effectively blew itself up (and has now handed us the bill for the consequences)? Yup, he is.

And this chap Mike Soden, who Mr Lenihan has appointed to the Central Bank Commission -- he wouldn't be the Mike Soden who was head of the Bank of Ireland, would he? Yup.

Now, you pay attention to these good folk, they're The People Who Know About These Things.

We've isolated dissenting voices in the recent past. When Morgan Kelly shouted a warning he was dismissed as a grumpy "contrarian", at odds with all those nice, ungrumpy economists who worked for the banks. David McWilliams -- with his lovely hair and his cutesy way with words -- was easily dismissed as an ego driven know-nothing. When Richard Curran presented a razor-sharp analysis of the danger of a collapse, he -- along with RTE -- was fiercely condemned as an unpatriotic Chicken Little.

In September 2008, RTE's Liveline was shut up. Callers had expressed unease about their life savings. Brian Lenihan rang RTE and asked them to take the microphones away from the common, foolish, panicky, ignorant callers. And RTE did.

Simon Carswell, in an excellent background piece on the events of that period, quoted a "well-placed insider" who noted that the government was upset by Joe Duffy's programme -- angry that discussion was fuelled by "taxi driver and hairdresser conversations". Ordinary people were expressing opinions on the economy. My God, the nerve.

Behind the scenes, there had been weeks of panic. The well-placed insiders had moved their money to safer hidey-holes. Some hugely indebted players had transferred their assets to their wives -- while their expert cheerleaders (and Mr Lenihan) assured us the banks were securely capitalised. Who needs the opinions of taxi drivers and hairdressers when you've got experts?

Without that Liveline discussion, the Government would not have increased the guarantee on ordinary deposits, from €20,000 to €100,000 -- a stabilising move. Liveline made a positive contribution. Those who repeatedly gave false reassurance damaged this country.

Now, here's that admission of utter ignorance on my part. Last week, while looking for something else, I came across a 2002 publication of the World Bank. It was about managing the effects of a banking crisis. This bit caught my eye, summarising one of the publication's articles: "The authors find that governments that provided open-ended liquidity support and blanket deposit guarantees incurred much higher costs in resolving financial crises."

Oh dear, I thought. Looks like these experts think that throwing billions at banks, and giving a blanket guarantee is exactly the wrong thing to do.

So, I read the article. It was hard going. Full of jargon. On blanket guarantees, however, it was clear: ". . . we find that if the countries in our sample had not pursued any such policies, fiscal costs would have averaged about 1 percent of GDP -- little more than one-tenth of what was actually spent."

The expert authors had studied 40 banking crises. "The policy message from these results seems clear: open-ended liquidity support, regulatory forbearance, and a blanket guarantee for depositors and creditors all significantly contribute to the fiscal cost of banking crises".

However, says I to myself, these people could be wrong. It's a judgment call. Two opposing points of view -- one is that of Brian Lenihan and the other is that of -- who wrote that paper? It had two authors, one of them Patrick Honohan.

Not the Patrick Honohan who's now head of the Central Bank? Not the Patrick Honohan whose name gets sprinkled like fairy dust whenever a government minister wants to trump an opponent? Yup.

So, you see my problem. An ignorant newspaper columnist might conclude that Professor Honohan -- a truly independent economist -- thinks the Government made a boo-boo by giving a blanket guarantee to the money markets (AKA Roman Abramovich). And that can't be right, because ministers are never done telling us that Prof Honohan is the expert's expert and that he agrees with every jot and tittle of government policy.

Obviously thick, I can't make sense of it.

As Shakespeare put it: "The fault, dear Soapbox, is not in our stars, but in ourselves." The stars (Mr Lenihan and his boss, Mr Nasal Congestion -- and the "very many accomplished specialist columnists in the area of business and economics") always get things right. The fault, clearly, is the ignorance of gobdaws like me, the taxi drivers, the hairdressers and others who don't matter.

One might well think that Mr Lenihan, his boss and all their cheerleaders, were wrong on the credit bubble; that they were wrong on the bank guarantee; that they were wrong on deflating the economy, via austerity measures -- thereby killing any prospects for the growth they need if the economy is to recover.

You might well feel repulsed by the desire of Mr Lenihan, his boss and all their cheerleaders to financially attack the aged, the schoolkids, the homeless and the terminally ill (who, incredibly, insanely, are being told they must "share the pain"). You might feel that an establishment that rages against dissenting opinion is creating conditions for a dangerous explosion of anger.

One might well think that -- but it's best to keep quiet. That way, we'll ensure that the money markets continue to hold Mr Lenihan in high respect.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on October 09, 2010, 12:20:11 AM
=2915&tx_ttnews[backPid]=901&cHash=5fc6365df5]http://www.eurointelligence.com/index.php?id=581&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=2915&tx_ttnews[backPid]=901&cHash=5fc6365df5 (http://www.eurointelligence.com/index.php?id=581&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news)

WHY THE EU'S BANK RESCUE STRATEGY IS TURNING INTO A POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC CATASTROPHE
By: Wolfgang Münchau

The anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers was without a doubt the single most symbolic moment of the financial crisis. But, at least for Europe, it was not the quintessential turning point. That came on Tuesday, 30 September 2008, when Brian Cowen, the Irish prime minister, gave a blanket guarantee for the entire banking sector. His decision bounded the other eurozone leaders into following suit. The rest is history.
I would go as far as to classify the decision as one of the most catastrophic political decision taken in post-war Europe. This not so much because of the decision itself – it was necessary to stop the rot at the time – but because of a lack of action to embed the decision into a strategy to solve the problems of the banking sector – lack of capitalisation, abundance of toxic assets, poor management, and of course, excessive size. The consequences of that strategy will only become apparent in the years to come. We saw a small glimpse last week when Ireland's recognised the black hole inside the banking sector, which will cost the country a cool 32 per cent of GDP this year alone. I myself recently estimated that the cost of Irish bank rescue would ultimately run up to about 30 per cent of GDP, which seemed a shockingly large number to some of observers. As it turns out, I was unrealistically optimistic - as I so often am. The Germans, too, are notorious optimistic about the underlying states of its banking sector, large parts of it are not properly capitalised.
The fundamental error committed by Europeans governments at the beginning of the crisis was the failure to shrink the banking system, and to force the bondholders to share the cost of the rescue operations. Last week, the Irish government took only the minimalist step to participate the holders of subordinated debt. My explanation is that the banks must have succeeded in scaring the politicians into believing that forced bond-to-equity conversions would signify the end of civilisation as we know it.
Why not just default? History has shown that countries recover from default relatively quickly. But in Europe, default is considered such a gigantic blemish, that Europeans go to extremes to avoid it. Latvia marched through one of the most brutal economic depressions in modern history.  A currency devaluation would have eased the pain, but it went against official dogma. Ireland and Greece, too, preferred to cripple their economies for generations to come in order to avoid the political blemish of a default, or even an agreed rescheduling of the sovereign debt. Both countries are fundamentally insolvent – if you assume, as I do, that there will be zero growth for five, or even ten years, with further steep declines in asset prices.
Even the Greeks, with a debt-to-GDP ratio approaching 150 per cent, want to get through this without default. This week's Greek budget law is very optimistic for 2011, but this is going to be a long haul. The question about solvency is whether Greece can achieve sustainable growth to pay off its debts in the long run.
It would be much easier to accompany this process with at least a partial default. But Europeans detest the whole idea. The eurozone was built on the trinity of No Default, No Exit, No Bailout, a logically incoherent combination, but one that nevertheless has deep roots. Of the three, the EU reluctantly agreed to drop the latter, while defending the first two to the death.
The single most absurd spectacle of it all, almost comic in fact, is the debate that is raging in Brussels. The big issue there is whether sanctions against deficit sinners should be automatic, or subject to a political vote. It is an almost exact re-run of a debate that took place before the euro even started. Twelve years later, during which the EU failed to impose sanctions on a single occasion, not even to Greece, this is still the main issue of debate.
So while Ireland and Greece are burning, the EU has taken the eyes off the ball, and reverted to the more familiar ideological debates. The fact that Ireland was, until very recently, never a deficit sinner, does not seem to impress anyone. Ireland, but also Spain, went from virtuous to almost bankrupt over night. All the proposals I have yet heard discussed in Brussels have in common, that, if applied retroactively, they would not have made a single bit of difference to the present situation.
The big issue in the eurozone is not narrow fiscal discipline but national solvency, which is much broader concept. Because of the blanket guarantees, it is no longer possible to separate private and public debt. There is just plain and simple debt. We are now in the paradoxical situation where the survival of the banks is more assured that the survival of those who saved it.
The author is President of Eurointelligence ASBL, and an associate editor and columnist of the Financial Times.
Title: Pensions
Post by: muppet on October 09, 2010, 03:06:44 PM
Quote from: Rossie11 on September 20, 2010, 05:53:48 PM
http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2010/09/20/capital-punishment-for-all

McWilliams most recent piece. Have we anyone in power that has the balls to do what he says regarding Anglo?

Rossie11 posted the above from McWilliams a few weeks ago. It contained the following quote:

Quoten other countries which have faced our type of crises, the state forced local pension funds to buy government bonds or else froze savings, reintroduced capital controls and tried to grab people's savings.

The same day the Indo had a report stating that both IBEC and ICTU wanted the pension rules changed so that Irish Pension funds could buy Irish Government Bonds. Is this the turkeys demanding christmas?

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/pensions/investment-ban-raises-fears-for-future-of-funds-2354143.html (http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/pensions/investment-ban-raises-fears-for-future-of-funds-2354143.html)

The next day an article in the Indo quoted the 'The Society of Actuaries and the Irish Association of Pension Fund Managers' as proposing a number of measures to ease the funding requirements on Pension which they say are too restrictive. Our pensions' solvency is based on German Bonds interest rates and with very good reason. The above society thinks we should have our pensions calculate their solvency based on the current (record high) Irish Bonds interest rates. Of course this would require legislation to allow Irish Pensions buy Irish Government Bonds. More significantly the article states "However, pensions legislation would need to be rewritten to allow the life company providing the annuity to cut the pension payment if there was a default by the Irish State. This would in effect mean that the risk of default passes from the scheme to the pensioner".

In essence IBEC and ICTU want to save the pensions by having them gamble on Irish Government Bonds and have the burden of the risk of default on the pensioner.

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/fund-managers-propose-solution-to-benefits-crisis-2355203.html (http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/fund-managers-propose-solution-to-benefits-crisis-2355203.html)

I am convinced that this is likely in the Budget. I think McWilliams is warning us extremely gently, to avoid accusations of causing national panic, but yet he will still be able to point back to that article next year and say 'I told you so'.

This being Ireland, my prediction is that the Government won't overtly force the pensions into this, they will merely get the social partners, IBEC and ICTU, (sworn enemies mar dhea) to propose it and then the Government will 'take it into consideration'. It will then appear in the Budget and will buy the Government more time next year. Meanwhile they will happily tell us that a bond auction was 'oversubscribed' which of course will have indicated that 'we have turned a corner' etc.

Incredible as it may seem, not merely content with gambling our economy and our sovereignty to bail out the banks, the Government may be hell bent on gambling our pensions as well. If they subsequently default they may end up having lost everything that we have, on our compliant little behalves.

If, and it is still an if, they are in fact at a stage whereby they are considering getting local pensions to invest in Irish Government Bonds, look at the first quote above to see what McWilliams says are alternatives.





Title: Irish taxpayer to provide €1bn bail-out of FÁS and university pension funds
Post by: bcarrier on October 12, 2010, 09:35:36 AM
Irish taxpayer to provide €1bn bail-out of FÁS and university pension funds

http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1020763.shtml

One for  "the things that make you go WTF " thread.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: whiskeysteve on October 12, 2010, 10:05:08 AM
What are they trying to hide I wonder? deadly shower altogether!

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/fingleton-report-to-remain-secret-2374771.html

Fingleton report to remain secret

By Shane Phelan

Tuesday October 12 2010

THE Department of Finance is refusing to publish a report on payments to controversial former Irish Nationwide chief executive Michael Fingleton.

The stricken building society's public interest directors were requested by Finance Minister Brian Lenihan to investigate payments to Mr Fingleton, following revelations of a €1m 'bonus' as part of a €2.4m package for 2008.

The package included a salary of €893,000, benefits worth €70,000, and another payment of €450,000, most of which covered a massive backlog in untaken leave.

Mr Fingleton last night faced calls to return the €450,000 sum following revelations about it in yesterday's Irish Independent.

Mr Lenihan tasked directors Adrian Kearns and Rory O'Ferrall with examining salary, bonus, pension and other payments made to Mr Fingleton by the ailing lender.

However, officials are now refusing to publish the report or release it under Freedom of Information rules.

Following legal advice, the department claims the report cannot be published because it contains information received in confidence as well as commercially sensitive data.

The department has also refused to give a copy of the report to Mr Fingleton (72).

Reckless lending under Mr Fingleton's stewardship culminated in the institution recording losses of €2.5bn last year.

The losses were more than the building society ever made throughout its history and the cost of a state bailout is now expected to be €5.4bn.

Meanwhile, Fine Gael communications spokesman Leo Varadkar last night called on the former bank boss to give back the unpaid leave payment of close to €450,000.

"It beggars belief that anyone should be entitled to €450,000 worth of holiday pay," said Mr Varadkar.

"But it's even more astounding when that person turns out to be the former chief executive of a building society which has had to be bailed out by the taxpayer."

- Shane Phelan

Irish Independent
Title: Re: Pensions
Post by: Lone Shark on October 12, 2010, 11:32:36 AM
Quote from: muppet on October 09, 2010, 03:06:44 PM
Quote from: Rossie11 on September 20, 2010, 05:53:48 PM
http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2010/09/20/capital-punishment-for-all

McWilliams most recent piece. Have we anyone in power that has the balls to do what he says regarding Anglo?

Rossie11 posted the above from McWilliams a few weeks ago. It contained the following quote:

Quoten other countries which have faced our type of crises, the state forced local pension funds to buy government bonds or else froze savings, reintroduced capital controls and tried to grab people's savings.

The same day the Indo had a report stating that both IBEC and ICTU wanted the pension rules changed so that Irish Pension funds could buy Irish Government Bonds. Is this the turkeys demanding christmas?

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/pensions/investment-ban-raises-fears-for-future-of-funds-2354143.html (http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/pensions/investment-ban-raises-fears-for-future-of-funds-2354143.html)

The next day an article in the Indo quoted the 'The Society of Actuaries and the Irish Association of Pension Fund Managers' as proposing a number of measures to ease the funding requirements on Pension which they say are too restrictive. Our pensions' solvency is based on German Bonds interest rates and with very good reason. The above society thinks we should have our pensions calculate their solvency based on the current (record high) Irish Bonds interest rates. Of course this would require legislation to allow Irish Pensions buy Irish Government Bonds. More significantly the article states "However, pensions legislation would need to be rewritten to allow the life company providing the annuity to cut the pension payment if there was a default by the Irish State. This would in effect mean that the risk of default passes from the scheme to the pensioner".

In essence IBEC and ICTU want to save the pensions by having them gamble on Irish Government Bonds and have the burden of the risk of default on the pensioner.

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/fund-managers-propose-solution-to-benefits-crisis-2355203.html (http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/fund-managers-propose-solution-to-benefits-crisis-2355203.html)

I am convinced that this is likely in the Budget. I think McWilliams is warning us extremely gently, to avoid accusations of causing national panic, but yet he will still be able to point back to that article next year and say 'I told you so'.

This being Ireland, my prediction is that the Government won't overtly force the pensions into this, they will merely get the social partners, IBEC and ICTU, (sworn enemies mar dhea) to propose it and then the Government will 'take it into consideration'. It will then appear in the Budget and will buy the Government more time next year. Meanwhile they will happily tell us that a bond auction was 'oversubscribed' which of course will have indicated that 'we have turned a corner' etc.

Incredible as it may seem, not merely content with gambling our economy and our sovereignty to bail out the banks, the Government may be hell bent on gambling our pensions as well. If they subsequently default they may end up having lost everything that we have, on our compliant little behalves.

If, and it is still an if, they are in fact at a stage whereby they are considering getting local pensions to invest in Irish Government Bonds, look at the first quote above to see what McWilliams says are alternatives.

This is huge news, but of course like everything else in this country, it'll only reach the national consciousness when it's too late. It's a win-win for everyone bar the pension holder.

From the Government's point of view, it's a source of borrowing at a time when those sources are drying up. For the pension fund managers, it's a great deal. Most pension schemes are underfunded, so this way they get to put the "safe" proportion of their fund into 6% return assets, and thus not have to put in more money to compensate for bad actuarial calculations up to this point. If the government defaults, the fund managers can turn around and blame the Irish state and thus escape culpability. If they are forced to continue investing in risk free bonds, such as German ones, then their schemes continue to be badly funded and the money has to come form somewhere else, which will often have the net effect of a disgruntled employer moving his fund elsewhere.

This is absolutely huge and everyone out there who has a private pension should be asking the tough questions of their HR departments right now to ensure that this gets flagged up.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Rossie11 on October 12, 2010, 01:49:31 PM
Lone Shark
I am in a small pension scheme with no HR dept between me and the fund manager.
Is there an option for me to instruct them to move my pension to some other scheme/fund
to avoid this?
I wouldnt know a whole pile about pensions but to me this just looks like a huge govt gamble with our future savings
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Lone Shark on October 12, 2010, 02:12:43 PM
Absolutely.

Contact your fund manager directly and ask him directly what way your fund is split. Don't get fobbed off with "20% Bonds, 15% cash and 65% equities" or any such nonsense - get an actual breakdown. It's a pain in the nads for him to do so you'll have to chase it, but they are obliged to give that information as far as I'm aware.

Most companies will allow you to self administer if needs be, but I'd be wary of going the whole hog like that - it should be possible to just move around into different funds if needs be.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Bogball XV on October 13, 2010, 09:45:03 AM
It's all over - time to close this thread and somebody can start a new one - "The recovery of Ireland and how she became the prize pig of the litter".  The new thread will undoubtedly be a mine of information and important chronological record for economists in years to come as they try and put together the story of the recovery.

Today's Indo Front Page Headine:

Economy has 'turned corner' says top rating agency boss


Here's a link if anybody could be bothered reading such dross:

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/economy-has-turned-corner-says-top-rating-agency-boss-2376296.html
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: whiskeysteve on October 13, 2010, 10:00:43 AM
Quote from: Bogball XV on October 13, 2010, 09:45:03 AM
It's all over - time to close this thread and somebody can start a new one - "The recovery of Ireland and how she became the prize pig of the litter".  The new thread will undoubtedly be a mine of information and important chronological record for economists in years to come as they try and put together the story of the recovery.

Today's Indo Front Page Headine:

Economy has 'turned corner' says top rating agency boss


Here's a link if anybody could be bothered reading such dross:

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/economy-has-turned-corner-says-top-rating-agency-boss-2376296.html

Released 2 days after this article by mcwilliams  ;D

http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2010/10/11/avoid-false-ratings-prophets

Avoid false ratings prophets
October 11, 2010

Posted in Articles | Sunday Business Post by David McWilliams 177 Comments
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The other night, I watched American Gangster, the marvellous film made about the life of Frank Lucas.

Lucas built a huge heroin dealing network, buying the heroin in Vietnam in bulk and then releasing it on to the streets of New York.

Apparently what distinguished his heroin from the competitors' heroin was the pureness of the drug.

Unlike his competitors, Lucas had such a good source that he could afford not to cut the drug up so much and therefore the quality of the heroin marked his product out. In an effort to brand his heroin to distinguish it from his competitors, Lucas marked all his heroin bags with the name ''Blue Magic''.

The Blue Magic mark attested to the premium quality of the drug.

However, to get the premium stamp, Lucas had to employ chemists who would check the quality. It wasn't good enough to employ addicts to verify, he had to get it properly assessed.

In the real drug world, the drug stamper is a crucial part of the drugs business.

For example, when cocaine comes into Spain from Latin America, Irish dealers, who are buying the drugs from bigger Latin American dealers, will get a ''chemist'' to verify that the drug is of a certain purity.

Once this quality has been established, the Irish drug dealers will set about moving the drugs from a warehouse in Spain to Ireland.

With the image of drug dealers in your heads, let's talk about the banking businesses and the various characters who play their role in the money chain.

After all, the credit business, like the drug business, is all about distribution.

The money – like the drugs from Latin America – comes in at the top when the local bank, say AIB, borrows in the money market. In a credit boom once it has the money secured at the top, a bank like AIB goes about pushing the credit through the system so that it can get to the credit junkies at the bottom who will use the credit to feed their consumption habit.

But, like the global drug dealer, the international banking system needs its stamper who attests to the quality of the money or the financial product that is being peddled.

This is where the so-called ''objective'' ratings agencies come in.

And this is why I get annoyed when I hear some suit from Fitch, Moody's or Standard & Poor's prattle on about our credit rating.

Do these people have any credibility?

Like the whole economics and finance industry, the acid test of credibility should be how they answer the simple question: ''Where were you in the boom?"

In Britain in the 1950s the question about personal character was always ''Daddy, where were you in the war?" Now it should be where were you in the boom, and if you were on the wrong side I can't take you seriously.

So where were the credit rating agencies in the boom? Were they on the right or the wrong side?

Let's stick with the drugs metaphor to explain where the rating agencies were and what they were doing.

Both investment bankers and drugs brokers need to know the quality of the product they are paying for.

The drugs broker has a chemist. The chemist rates the purity of the consignment, gives it a triple A stamp and takes his fee.

The investment banker's equivalent of the drugs broker's chemist is the rating agencies.

By rating companies, banks and countries, the rating agencies should give investors peace of mind – promising them that what they buy is of good quality, unlikely to default and so won't cause them any sleepless nights.

If the rating system fails or is compromised in any way, the foundation of every transaction collapses.

Consider the drugs world.

What would happen if the chemists were actually paid by the supplier to rate bad stuff as good stuff?

What might the drugs syndicate in Dublin do to a stamper who lied about the quality of the gear because he was in the pay of the supplier?

In the boom, this was not a concern in the banking world. Perhaps nobody ever watched a mafia movie like American Gangster. In the US sub-prime mortgage disaster, the rating agencies were paid by the banks to rate the junk they were selling as triple A.

In reality, some of the assets in this AAA toxic cocktail were worthless. Subprime debt, loans to people who had neither means nor intention of repaying money, were packaged with reliable securities, then given gilt-edged ratings by agencies in the pay of the banks. In the Irish case, our banks – just when they were blowing their balance sheets – were rated AAA by the same rating agencies who are now telling us they can rate us.

Credit was used to buy over-priced houses when there was little connection between the price of the house and its value.

But for this transaction to take place, we too needed a local stamper or verifier.

We needed someone to validate the price paid: ''This is correct.

This two bedroomed terraced house in Monkstown is indeed worth €1million.

Your money is safe here." This is where the estate agents came in.

They were responsible for valuing houses.

Bizarrely, these valuations were given credence even though, like the rating agencies, an estate agent's fee was directly related to the sale price.

So house price inflation was in the interests of the estate agents: higher prices meant higher fees.

The banks and the estate agents were hand in glove, working to hoodwink the punters.

Now the same estate agents are telling us that the property market has hit the bottom.

Meanwhile, they have Nama to pay them to value stuff they overvalued in the boom.

And what about the international ''stampers'', the rating agencies? These lads are the estate agents of the financial world.

They are now on Irish radio telling us how to run our country and what we should and should not do.

They are simply chasing the market. They are always last to know.

Now they are downgrading Irish risk when they should have been downgrading it before the end of the boom, not now when the dogs in the street know what is happening.

Most egregiously, they are given credence.

Next time a Fitch spokesperson downgrades Ireland, let's just ask him where he was in the boom and then show him the door.

There is one thing I can guarantee: when our fortunes turn, those lads will be the last to cop on.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: whiskeysteve on October 13, 2010, 12:12:05 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on October 13, 2010, 09:45:03 AM
Today's Indo Front Page Headine:

Economy has 'turned corner' says top rating agency boss


(http://www.liberty-news.com/cartoons/TurningTheCorner.gif)

Stolen from politics.ie
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Bogball XV on October 13, 2010, 12:22:44 PM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on October 13, 2010, 12:12:05 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on October 13, 2010, 09:45:03 AM
Today's Indo Front Page Headine:

Economy has 'turned corner' says top rating agency boss


(http://www.liberty-news.com/cartoons/TurningTheCorner.gif)

Stolen from politics.ie

brilliant!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on October 13, 2010, 12:57:14 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on October 13, 2010, 09:45:03 AM
It's all over - time to close this thread and somebody can start a new one - "The recovery of Ireland and how she became the prize pig of the litter".  The new thread will undoubtedly be a mine of information and important chronological record for economists in years to come as they try and put together the story of the recovery.

Today's Indo Front Page Headine:

Economy has 'turned corner' says top rating agency boss


Here's a link if anybody could be bothered reading such dross:

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/economy-has-turned-corner-says-top-rating-agency-boss-2376296.html

Here is how it has worked for the last few elections.

Indo slags off government month in month out with the occasional attack on FG leader and talking up of Labour leader.

Taoiseach has meeting with the Irish Murdock (which only emerges later).

Indo changes tack completely and supports Government. (Looks like what happened today)

Election announced by Indo of course (they had the exclusive scoop on Bertie going to the Aras last time).

Indo: FF great. FG rubbish (I think this time they will really savage Gilmore though).

FF win election again.

Gesture from Taoiseach to Indo (My money is on Brendan O'Conner to be the next EU commissioner or maybe Ruth Dudley Edwards)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: seafoid on October 13, 2010, 03:02:12 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 13, 2010, 12:57:14 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on October 13, 2010, 09:45:03 AM
It's all over - time to close this thread and somebody can start a new one - "The recovery of Ireland and how she became the prize pig of the litter".  The new thread will undoubtedly be a mine of information and important chronological record for economists in years to come as they try and put together the story of the recovery.

Today's Indo Front Page Headine:

Economy has 'turned corner' says top rating agency boss


Here's a link if anybody could be bothered reading such dross:

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/economy-has-turned-corner-says-top-rating-agency-boss-2376296.html

Here is how it has worked for the last few elections.

Indo slags off government month in month out with the occasional attack on FG leader and talking up of Labour leader.

Taoiseach has meeting with the Irish Murdock (which only emerges later).

Indo changes tack completely and supports Government. (Looks like what happened today)

Election announced by Indo of course (they had the exclusive scoop on Bertie going to the Aras last time).

Indo: FF great. FG rubbish (I think this time they will really savage Gilmore though).

FF win election again.

Gesture from Taoiseach to Indo (My money is on Brendan O'Conner to be the next EU commissioner or maybe Ruth Dudley Edwards)

As long as debt deflation sets in and house prices continue to tank, FF's goose is cooked. The Indo can't talk up the value of anyone's house or turn all the unemployed into workers.   FF have no hope of winning the election.  The Bertie wonder election winning machine needed 6 banks in working order, economic growth and plentiful credit. None of these circumstances apply today and the machine is banjaxed. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Hereiam on October 13, 2010, 10:49:07 PM
So who will the people vote in. Enda would be just as bad. The greens are a waste of space.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on October 13, 2010, 11:48:49 PM
Quote from: Hereiam on October 13, 2010, 10:49:07 PM
So who will the people vote in. Enda would be just as bad. The greens are a waste of space.

Is that the Indo's front page for the election?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Zapatista on October 14, 2010, 08:26:32 AM
Quote from: Hereiam on October 13, 2010, 10:49:07 PM
So who will the people vote in. Enda would be just as bad. The greens are a waste of space.

Atleast Kenny never stole from me.

It's widely accepted that the crash has involved three main groups at the top and that these groups are all linked through the same core group of people. The three are FF, Bankers and Big Builders. It's the holy Trinity 3in1. FG and Enda Kenny are not in this golden circle and so there is no reason to think that they will behave in any way like FF have.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: seafoid on October 14, 2010, 09:09:03 AM
Quote from: Hereiam on October 13, 2010, 10:49:07 PM
So who will the people vote in. Enda would be just as bad. The greens are a waste of space.

FF are exhausted. 14 years in power and everything in bits around their feet. A change is required.  Even if the government ends up taking orders from Brussels.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Bogball XV on October 14, 2010, 09:57:44 AM
Quote from: Hereiam on October 13, 2010, 10:49:07 PM
So who will the people vote in. Enda would be just as bad. The greens are a waste of space.
We don't know that Enda would be just as bad - I admit that I don't think any government will be able to do much to stop this juggernaut, but at least I'd rather see anyone else rather than the incumbents get paid 300k p.a to try and stop it.  I hope that FG and Labour don't end up being sucked into a national govt, I wanted that 2 years ago, in the vain hope that somebody would put the brakes on Lenno, but that boat sailed long ago.
Now, what we need are fresh faces, any faces but those that have been at the trough for the past 13yrs (or 3yrs in the case of Gormley, White and Ryan - 2 of them have their pensions secured, no need to wait around).
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: seafoid on October 14, 2010, 10:40:00 AM
This was on irisheconomy.ie yesterday

The original creditors of the banks, particularly Anglo, have now largely escaped and been replaced by the ECB and others, who have lent money to the banks under a sovereign guarantee. The people who perhaps should have suffered have escaped already.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: Zapatista on October 14, 2010, 11:41:46 AM
Quote from: seafoid on October 14, 2010, 10:40:00 AM
This was on irisheconomy.ie yesterday

The original creditors of the banks, particularly Anglo, have now largely escaped and been replaced by the ECB and others, who have lent money to the banks under a sovereign guarantee. The people who perhaps should have suffered have escaped already.

Should that not read 'replaced by the Irish Tax Payer'?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: seafoid on October 14, 2010, 12:45:50 PM
The taxpayer has paid for the losses. The bonds are still held by the ECB.
So there is no chance of ever getting anything from the bondholders. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (of the PIGS?)
Post by: muppet on October 14, 2010, 01:31:18 PM
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2010/1014/1224281062273.html (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2010/1014/1224281062273.html)

PENSION FUNDS may be granted more flexibility in funding retirement income, the Minister for Social Protection said yesterday.

Addressing the Irish Association of Pension Funds' annual conference, Éamon Ó Cuív said the proposal was receiving "thorough consideration" by his department, although no decision has yet been made.

The Irish Association of Pension Funds and the Society of Actuaries in Ireland have been lobbying Government to allow the use of sovereign annuities – essentially availing of higher interest rates of Irish government bonds to reduce the overall cost of providing pensions to retired private sector workers.

At present, pension funds are obliged to use only the return on long-term German government debt in calculating their adherence to the minimum funding standard (MFS).

The standard lays down the minimum level of assets that a defined-benefit scheme must hold to meet its obligations to members. While most of those obligations relate to people still in employment, some of whom will not retire for many years, the MFS states that a fund must hold sufficient assets to buy an annuity today to meet the accrued benefits of members in the event of the scheme being wound up.

In assessing the cost of that annuity, they must use the yield on long-term German bonds. However, the historically low yield of such bonds is ratcheting up the cost. As of last night, the yield on German bunds was 2.3 per cent, while equivalent Irish 10-year bonds were offering a 6.4 per cent yield.

Mr Ó Cuív said he was not yet able to tell the industry whether the proposal would be accepted by Government but promised to inform pension funds as soon as possible.

Rachel Ingle, chairwoman of the benefits committee, welcomed the Minister's comments but said a decision on sovereign annuities was required urgently to ease pressure on pension funds.

However, another senior industry source said there was still considerable doubt on whether the change would be allowed, saying practical market sensitive issues remain to be overcome. Chief among these is how to address in any legislation the theoretical possibility of a sovereign default.


This is my take on the above. The pensions have assets of €45 Billion. The government have told them the funding requirements have gone up to a level higher than anywhere else on earth. 80% of the pensions cannot achieve these requirements and in theory will be shut down by the (Government appointed lackies) Pensions Board.

Miraculously though the 'industry' has come with a solution. If the law could be changed to allow the pension buy Irish Government Bonds (or some other name to disguise this) the Government would then get the Pensions Board to remove the draconian funding requirement. This of course would mean the Government gets access to new funding and our Bond auctions would be 'oversubscribed'.

Other countries that have done this simply seized the pensions and declared marshall law to quell the inevitable social unrest.

This being Ireland, our Government march out the social partners and other vested interests, and call it 'industry proposals' while our media say 'no comment' and our compliant little people aren't even aware of whats happening.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on October 14, 2010, 01:50:01 PM
Muppet

Bund yields have gone through the floor due to shenanigans elsewhere such as quantitative easing in the US which has driven down the cost of borrowing in a vain attempt to get Yanks spending again. The use of Bund yields to value pensions might have been fine pre 2008 but now it is making pensions simply unaffordable.  Lots of the cosy assumptions used pre 2008 have to be revised. If nothing is done there won't be any more defined benefit pension schemes. Who benefits then ? 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on October 14, 2010, 01:54:34 PM
Quote from: seafoid on October 14, 2010, 01:50:01 PM
Muppet

Bund yields have gone through the floor due to shenanigans elsewhere such as quantitative easing in the US which has driven down the cost of borrowing in a vain attempt to get Yanks spending again. The use of Bund yields to value pensions might have been fine pre 2008 but now it is making pensions simply unaffordable.  Lots of the cosy assumptions used pre 2008 have to be revised. If nothing is done there won't be any more defined benefit pension schemes. Who benefits then ?

Are the Irish Bonds the only possible instrument in the world that our DB schemes can be put into to survive?

The Government are using our pensions to delay the IMF. That just means that it will be 18 months instead of 8 until they are called in, except that the pensions will be gone as well by then.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on October 14, 2010, 02:27:49 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 14, 2010, 01:54:34 PM
Quote from: seafoid on October 14, 2010, 01:50:01 PM
Muppet

Bund yields have gone through the floor due to shenanigans elsewhere such as quantitative easing in the US which has driven down the cost of borrowing in a vain attempt to get Yanks spending again. The use of Bund yields to value pensions might have been fine pre 2008 but now it is making pensions simply unaffordable.  Lots of the cosy assumptions used pre 2008 have to be revised. If nothing is done there won't be any more defined benefit pension schemes. Who benefits then ?

Are the Irish Bonds the only possible instrument in the world that our DB schemes can be put into to survive?

The Government are using our pensions to delay the IMF. That just means that it will be 18 months instead of 8 until they are called in, except that the pensions will be gone as well by then.

It doesn't seem to have anything to do with the IMF.  The Euro has been a disaster for Ireland and this is just one example. If you wanted to use another bond it would have to be denominated in Euro so you could take your pick but most of the other yields are down near bunds. Maybe Italy might give a bit of relief.  The whole pensions model is banjaxed at the moment.  With a 10 year equity bear market and interest rates on the floor there is nowhere to hide.

When the current economic system eventually collapses it will be triggered by something financey like this.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on October 15, 2010, 04:22:28 PM
QuoteThe taxpayer has paid for the losses. The bonds are still held by the ECB.
So there is no chance of ever getting anything from the bondholders. 

I dont understand this ...are there not bonds being traded in second hand market ( bought at discount by Mr Chelsea etc) .
Is it not a case of the bondholders getting something from Ireland ? We have their money and we cant pay it back.



Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on October 15, 2010, 05:58:51 PM
Quote from: seafoid on October 14, 2010, 02:27:49 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 14, 2010, 01:54:34 PM
Quote from: seafoid on October 14, 2010, 01:50:01 PM
Muppet

Bund yields have gone through the floor due to shenanigans elsewhere such as quantitative easing in the US which has driven down the cost of borrowing in a vain attempt to get Yanks spending again. The use of Bund yields to value pensions might have been fine pre 2008 but now it is making pensions simply unaffordable.  Lots of the cosy assumptions used pre 2008 have to be revised. If nothing is done there won't be any more defined benefit pension schemes. Who benefits then ?

Are the Irish Bonds the only possible instrument in the world that our DB schemes can be put into to survive?

The Government are using our pensions to delay the IMF. That just means that it will be 18 months instead of 8 until they are called in, except that the pensions will be gone as well by then.

It doesn't seem to have anything to do with the IMF.  The Euro has been a disaster for Ireland and this is just one example. If you wanted to use another bond it would have to be denominated in Euro so you could take your pick but most of the other yields are down near bunds. Maybe Italy might give a bit of relief.  The whole pensions model is banjaxed at the moment.  With a 10 year equity bear market and interest rates on the floor there is nowhere to hide.

When the current economic system eventually collapses it will be triggered by something financey like this.


Irish, European or Global?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on October 15, 2010, 09:53:22 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 15, 2010, 05:58:51 PM
Quote from: seafoid on October 14, 2010, 02:27:49 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 14, 2010, 01:54:34 PM
Quote from: seafoid on October 14, 2010, 01:50:01 PM
Muppet

Bund yields have gone through the floor due to shenanigans elsewhere such as quantitative easing in the US which has driven down the cost of borrowing in a vain attempt to get Yanks spending again. The use of Bund yields to value pensions might have been fine pre 2008 but now it is making pensions simply unaffordable.  Lots of the cosy assumptions used pre 2008 have to be revised. If nothing is done there won't be any more defined benefit pension schemes. Who benefits then ?

Are the Irish Bonds the only possible instrument in the world that our DB schemes can be put into to survive?

The Government are using our pensions to delay the IMF. That just means that it will be 18 months instead of 8 until they are called in, except that the pensions will be gone as well by then.

It doesn't seem to have anything to do with the IMF.  The Euro has been a disaster for Ireland and this is just one example. If you wanted to use another bond it would have to be denominated in Euro so you could take your pick but most of the other yields are down near bunds. Maybe Italy might give a bit of relief.  The whole pensions model is banjaxed at the moment.  With a 10 year equity bear market and interest rates on the floor there is nowhere to hide.

When the current economic system eventually collapses it will be triggered by something financey like this.


Irish, European or Global?
i'd imagine global - if it's any consolation, we weren't the only ones to be taken in by this massive pyramid scheme
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on October 19, 2010, 03:57:42 PM
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/anglos-drumm-i-did-not-act-alone-2383012.html (http://www.independent.ie/national-news/anglos-drumm-i-did-not-act-alone-2383012.html)

And another one says that their actions were carried out in the full knowledge of both the Central Back and the Financial Regulator. We have to assume he is including the deception of the markets by moving €7Billion from IL&P into and back out of Anglo. That means that both of the CXs at the time claim the authorities knew and it seems inconceivable that they didn't tell their bosses, Cowen and Lenihan, especially at the time of the guarantee.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on October 19, 2010, 04:19:42 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 19, 2010, 03:57:42 PM
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/anglos-drumm-i-did-not-act-alone-2383012.html (http://www.independent.ie/national-news/anglos-drumm-i-did-not-act-alone-2383012.html)

And another one says that their actions were carried out in the full knowledge of both the Central Back and the Financial Regulator. We have to assume he is including the deception of the markets by moving €7Billion from IL&P into and back out of Anglo. That means that both of the CXs at the time claim the authorities knew and it seems inconceivable that they didn't tell their bosses, Cowen and Lenihan, especially at the time of the guarantee.

I feel a conspiracy theory coming on. Maybe these discredited CXs are saying they told the CB and FR because they are more interested in protecting bond holders than the irish state.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on October 19, 2010, 04:23:28 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on October 19, 2010, 04:19:42 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 19, 2010, 03:57:42 PM
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/anglos-drumm-i-did-not-act-alone-2383012.html (http://www.independent.ie/national-news/anglos-drumm-i-did-not-act-alone-2383012.html)

And another one says that their actions were carried out in the full knowledge of both the Central Back and the Financial Regulator. We have to assume he is including the deception of the markets by moving €7Billion from IL&P into and back out of Anglo. That means that both of the CXs at the time claim the authorities knew and it seems inconceivable that they didn't tell their bosses, Cowen and Lenihan, especially at the time of the guarantee.

I feel a conspiracy theory coming on. Maybe these discredited CXs are saying they told the CB and FR because they are more interested in protecting bond holders than the irish state.

Maybe they say they had the approval of the CB and FR because no two CXs in their right minds would have been involved in the movement of the €7 Billion to Anglo to deliberately deceive the markets, unless they had received some comfort from above, would they?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on October 19, 2010, 04:55:09 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 19, 2010, 04:23:28 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on October 19, 2010, 04:19:42 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 19, 2010, 03:57:42 PM
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/anglos-drumm-i-did-not-act-alone-2383012.html (http://www.independent.ie/national-news/anglos-drumm-i-did-not-act-alone-2383012.html)

And another one says that their actions were carried out in the full knowledge of both the Central Back and the Financial Regulator. We have to assume he is including the deception of the markets by moving €7Billion from IL&P into and back out of Anglo. That means that both of the CXs at the time claim the authorities knew and it seems inconceivable that they didn't tell their bosses, Cowen and Lenihan, especially at the time of the guarantee.

I feel a conspiracy theory coming on. Maybe these discredited CXs are saying they told the CB and FR because they are more interested in protecting bond holders than the irish state.

Maybe they say they had the approval of the CB and FR because no two CXs in their right minds would have been involved in the movement of the €7 Billion to Anglo to deliberately deceive the markets, unless they had received some comfort from above, would they?
I don't remember exactly, but had this type of window dressing not been going on for quite a while?  I thought that ILP had received a similar assistance at one of their quarter ends and I'm fairly sure that Anglo and INBS had been involved in some sort of reciprocal arrangement for a number of years - but that may just have related to directors loans
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on October 19, 2010, 05:03:40 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on October 19, 2010, 04:55:09 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 19, 2010, 04:23:28 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on October 19, 2010, 04:19:42 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 19, 2010, 03:57:42 PM
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/anglos-drumm-i-did-not-act-alone-2383012.html (http://www.independent.ie/national-news/anglos-drumm-i-did-not-act-alone-2383012.html)

And another one says that their actions were carried out in the full knowledge of both the Central Back and the Financial Regulator. We have to assume he is including the deception of the markets by moving €7Billion from IL&P into and back out of Anglo. That means that both of the CXs at the time claim the authorities knew and it seems inconceivable that they didn't tell their bosses, Cowen and Lenihan, especially at the time of the guarantee.

I feel a conspiracy theory coming on. Maybe these discredited CXs are saying they told the CB and FR because they are more interested in protecting bond holders than the irish state.

Maybe they say they had the approval of the CB and FR because no two CXs in their right minds would have been involved in the movement of the €7 Billion to Anglo to deliberately deceive the markets, unless they had received some comfort from above, would they?
I don't remember exactly, but had this type of window dressing not been going on for quite a while?  I thought that ILP had received a similar assistance at one of their quarter ends and I'm fairly sure that Anglo and INBS had been involved in some sort of reciprocal arrangement for a number of years - but that may just have related to directors loans

The directors' loans were concealed in an arrangement with INBS. I believe that is why lots of people believe Fingleton will never ever be touched as Anglo may not be the only ones to have had such a facility. Over on p.ie they describe Fingers as the man 'who knows where the bodies are buried'.

While there may have been smaller movements of money prior to Anglo year end of Sept 2008 I don't believe anything came remotely close to the €7 Billion moved to deceive the markets.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on October 25, 2010, 04:15:25 PM
I was back in Ireland last week and the way they were talking on RTE about the upcoming budget cuts was sort of surreal. Is it 4 or 5 or 7 billion sure aren't they only numbers.  The spin is impressive, I must say. What is  €4 billion going to mean. How about €2,000 paid by every family in the country. How would that look to people?   I don't think a lot of the presenters have the depth required to discuss what is going on.  You need people who can stand up to Lenihan and co and challenge, challenge, interrogate, find out what is driving them.  Michael Noonan saying the 2014  date is fixed and that is it. I wonder what sort of level of unemployment would make him shift his position. If things go arseways and they quite possibly will what will the new spin be? 

The country is paying the price for an out of control property boom that has left many tens of thousands of people living in homes that are worth less than 60% of what they paid for them.    That seems to be one of the greatest mistakes made during the Bertie years. The other was eviscerating the tax system. 

And reading the Sunday Independent was a real eye opener. What a bizarre newspaper that is. What happened to Sir tony's business acumen ? What is independent news and media trading at ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on October 26, 2010, 08:10:41 PM
So 15bn it is. And what if that doesn't work?
Nothing else has worked.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on October 26, 2010, 11:11:10 PM
Quote from: seafoid on October 26, 2010, 08:10:41 PM
So 15bn it is. And what if that doesn't work?
Nothing else has worked.

Is that your final answer? How many life lines has Lenihan left?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on October 27, 2010, 08:24:18 AM
It may not be the final answer. The deficit is expressed as a % of the size of the economy. The total debt owed stays fixed even if the size of the economy decreases. So if they take too much out of the economy to reduce the deficit they will trigger a deeper recession which will lead to higher unemployment and reduced tax income. This would have the effect of increasing the deficit. 

It's like a team , say Mayo who are in an all-Ireland final against say Kerry and they are say 5 points down. So they need to score 5 points. And they go up the pitch and faff around with the ball for 15 passes and then one of the forwards drives the ball wide. And Kerry win a kickout  and get it down the far end and score a goal. And now the deficit is 8 points. And it is only 20 minutes into the match. 

Ireland is in a mathematical nightmare. 

I wouldn't have Lenihan managing Mayo..   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on October 27, 2010, 08:32:36 AM
Has the decision to limit it to a four year plan been questioned? Who came up with this figure and why?

So far it seems to me that the EU mentioned it and it is guess work regarding growing confidence in the bond market. Why not 2015 or 16? The last time we went to the bond market it was over subscribed.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on October 27, 2010, 09:24:46 AM
Zapatista

It was oversubscribed but the rate paid was over 6%. There comes a point when it becomes too expensive to borrow. If Ireland paid 10% on bonds there would be massive oversubscription. This wouldn't mean anything.

Take the cuts. They want €15bn over 4 years. Ireland has to borrow €19bn next year. Call it €20bn. At 4% that's €800m in interest per year. At 6.5% it's €1.3bn. Paid every year. Over 4 years the difference is (1.3-0.8)*4= €2bn
So you see how important the interest rate that Ireland pays is.         
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on October 27, 2010, 09:42:29 AM
Fair enough but when they told us the cuts would have to ammount to 7bn it was over a 4 year period now that this has more thwn doubled it's still over 4 years. Surely they could have said at the start that it's 7.5bn over 2 years if they thought it was for the best? What difference will 7bn over 4 years be to 15bn over 8 years?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Denn Forever on October 27, 2010, 10:01:18 AM
It doesn't get any better.

What the feeling on all the parties getting together to work on the 4 year budget (?) submission to the EU.  Does it mean we'll just keep digging but with more/different people to blame?

Seafoid, as a Galway man you would surely want Lenihen managing the Mayo team. ;D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on October 27, 2010, 10:06:00 AM
Quote from: Zapatista on October 27, 2010, 08:32:36 AM
Has the decision to limit it to a four year plan been questioned? Who came up with this figure and why?

So far it seems to me that the EU mentioned it and it is guess work regarding growing confidence in the bond market. Why not 2015 or 16? The last time we went to the bond market it was over subscribed.
I think they have to pretend it's going to be 4 years, it seems as though that won't be possible, but for the time being we have to keep europe happy and adhere to the 4-year plan.
As seafoid points out, the impact on employment and subsequently tax revenue (and increase in welfare expenditure) will mean that there is zero chance of the deficit being bridged in the time scale outlined.

Personally, I think 15bn is a bit on the optimistic side, but i've never been known for my sunny personality ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on October 27, 2010, 10:06:38 AM
Zapatista

The difference is in the interest. The longer the period of repayment the more the country has to borrow and the more it ends up paying in interest.  The problem is the government has a budget deficit of €19bn it has to borrow for. The danger is that the lenders won't stump up the cash to met the deficit in taxes.  It is no different  to the many families in trouble who are turning to moneylenders for Christmas presents. They extract their pound of flesh and so do the bond markets.   

This is a FF economics nightmare. Taxes were far to low for too long and the banks were unregulated and Government spending lost all links with what the country could afford.

Back in 1987 total government spending was £8.7bn. Last year 22 years later it was €71bn.   In 2009 Ireland spent €6bn on alcohol. Something has to give. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on October 27, 2010, 10:14:09 AM
Lads we were initially told that it would be 7 billion over the 4 years now it's 15 over 4 years and 7 in the first year. They haven't a clue and yet we merrily rumble along quoting figures that are frightening.
I'm sick of saying this but the people who got us into this mess are incapable of getting us out of it yet every time I turn on the radio or TV I still have to listen to the same gobshites spouting the same nonsense be they politicians, economists or political commentators.  Though here's one that I enjoy reading

Gene Kerrigan: Don't mind me, I've got a moustache
Even those of us who know nothing about economics realise this Government is barmy, writes Gene Kerrigan


IN these perilous times, it's always good when an economics professor comes on the radio. Professors know things. They spend years studying to be a professor.

After that, they keep studying, so there's nothing they don't know about their subject. It's a serious business, the oul' professoring.

This column has never hidden its deep ignorance of economics -- an ignorance shared with probably 95 per cent of the citizenry.

But, these days, politics is buried under the debris of the economic collapse. If we give a damn about where this country is going, then we need to struggle to understand what's happening to the economy -- even if that means reading endless screeds of impenetrable jargon.

Otherwise, politics is meaningless and democracy is redundant.

We citizens depend on independent experts to at least map out the economic terrain, so we can make informed political judgements.

So you can imagine my relief when Professor Alan Barrett turned up on Morning Ireland on Thursday. The good professor and his mates at the Economic and Social Research Institute have done a bit of extra-deep studying on the economy and the figures are startling.

I moved closer to the radio, ears pricked. I got out my pen and jotter, eager to learn. And if his figures were startling, the professor's next comments were astonishing.

The professor and his ESRI mates considered the impact of the Cowen Government's austerity policies.

Austerity is the second of the Government's twin-track strategy. The first track involves pouring billions into the banks. (That's the entirety of the policy. Just keep pouring until the banks say "when".)

There are reasons for this. It will "get credit moving", apparently -- except it didn't and it won't. Not to worry. Mr Lenihan's a nice guy, right?

The second track is to impose austerity policies on the citizens, which will cut everyone's standard of living. It will also destroy the quality of life for many of the old, the sick, the handicapped and the dying.

It will ruin the life chances of bright, determined young people who depend on state supports to climb out of a hole. It will damage the health of many and prematurely kill some -- precisely as austerity policies did in the 1980s.

These are what Mr Cowen calls "tough decisions".

Why do this?

Well, because Mr Lenihan has to "convince the markets" that he's in control of the budget deficit. And because the EU Commission has something called a 'Growth and Stability Pact'. This pact says the budget deficit must be down to 3 per cent by 2014. The 3 per cent and the date are arbitrary.

Germany and France broke the pact when it suited them, but we're not allowed do so.

Professor Barrett and his mates have studied the figures and they concluded that if Mr Lenihan does what the EU wants, it will mean €15bn in cuts over the next four years, not €7bn.

They're worried about the "potential negative impact on the economy of this scale of adjustment over this period of time".

To translate -- cutting billions of euro out of the economy in such a short time will lead to disaster. Mass unemployment and further harsh budgets will persist for maybe 10 years -- or, as some of us fear, indefinitely.

The ESRI people apparently even murmured about driving the economy past the "tipping point", then backpedalled.

Now, there's absolutely nothing new in this. The leftwing website Progressive Economy, for instance, has been saying this for ages. But it's easy to dismiss lefties. After all, what do they know about economics?

Trade union leaders issued similar warnings, but some of them wear beards -- and for rightwingers, this is conclusive proof that they lack intelligence.

Even this economically ignorant column twigged from early on that if you deflate the economy in a recession, you risk sending it into a downward spiral. But the serious people said nothing mattered more than giving billions to the banks and cutting the deficit -- and let the economy look after itself.

So, following the cuts that pushed up unemployment and failed to control the deficit, we're to get even worse cuts. And the ESRI is finally worried about government policy.

And you can't just dismiss the ESRI -- these are all impeccably learned types who share the ideological assumptions of the politicians. (Besides, Professor Barrett is clean shaven.)

He says the ESRI fears that government policy will "damage the potential of the economy to grow its way out of recession". (Translation -- this will screw us for a generation.)

And no one has challenged his figures. It seems we're all agreed that what the Government is about to do risks seriously damaging the economy for at least a decade -- but they're going to do it anyway.

Why? To preserve their alleged "credibility" with the financial markets and the EU.

And here's where it gets truly astonishing.

Having alerted Morning Ireland listeners to the folly of what the Government is doing, the professor hastened to add a few words.

"Let me hasten to add," he hastened to add, "that we've been wrong, our economic forecasts have been wrong on occasions."

Admirable modesty. But this is the first time I've heard such a learned man so quickly undermine his own work. Professor Barrett told Morning Ireland of his "hunch or sense" that government policy will lead to "a prolonged period of subdued growth".

I think "subdued growth" means "10 or 20 years of mass unemployment, forced emigration, widespread poverty and persistent social unrest".

I was completely taken aback at the notion that a professor would reach conclusions based on a "hunch". In fact, we know the professor is a very learned man who reached his conclusions on hard figures and facts. And these figures are unchallenged.

Why the modesty? Some context is needed. The ESRI has been rightly criticised for not warning long before the collapse that the Celtic credit bubble was dangerous. And now, the figures show that government policy is about to make things massively worse -- and the ESRI could not ignore that.

They had to put their concern on the record.

"Yes, we've expressed concern," said Professor Barrett, adding: "I think it's important that we did that".

And, having expressed this concern, the professor hastened to add that we should feel free to downplay his work. Ah, don't mind a word the ESRI says, Taoiseach, sure aren't we always getting things wrong, so we are. Or words to that effect.

The ESRI know the facts and figures, but they're realists. They wrote into their report their belief that "the 2014 deadline is unlikely to be changed".

The professor's backpedalling was a simple acknowledgement of the fact that it doesn't matter what anyone says, it doesn't matter what the facts are, the Government will not be diverted from its lunatic course.

The opposition can hardly point to the ESRI figures and demand changed policies -- because they've on board with the government targets. Likewise the media and the commentariat.

For these elements, the scale of the radical response needed is -- literally -- unthinkable. This foolish policy is apparently as unstoppable as the foolish policies that caused the crash.

The consensus among these people seems to be that we'll cut the guts out of the economy -- depressing demand even further. And by some magical process show that Mr Lenihan is on top of the problem.

Then, when the markets and the EU have patted him on the back, he'll ask if he could maybe stretch the target date out to 2016, please sir, if you could see your way . . .

Seems to me to be the politics of Toytown and the economics of Daftville. But, of course, I hasten to add, I could be wrong.I a
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on October 27, 2010, 10:17:21 AM
Quote from: Bogball XV on October 27, 2010, 10:06:00 AM
Quote from: Zapatista on October 27, 2010, 08:32:36 AM
Has the decision to limit it to a four year plan been questioned? Who came up with this figure and why?

So far it seems to me that the EU mentioned it and it is guess work regarding growing confidence in the bond market. Why not 2015 or 16? The last time we went to the bond market it was over subscribed.
I think they have to pretend it's going to be 4 years, it seems as though that won't be possible, but for the time being we have to keep europe happy and adhere to the 4-year plan.

You couldn't make it up.  By all means Ireland has to be kept out of the IMF/EU treatment room. but it is not looking good. A slip up by Ireland would probably draw Spain and Portugal into the vortex. And then?   

In order to facilitate a bailout scheme for countries in trouble the Lisbon treaty will have to be revisited. This will take  at least 2 years and will require another referendum !!! Because the Maastricht treaty had a NO BAILOUT clause.
And a new bailout regime it is the only way out for the Eurozone, in all probability . And what are the chances of Ireland voting through Lisbon 2 on the first go ?   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on October 27, 2010, 10:18:09 AM
Quote from: seafoid on October 27, 2010, 10:06:38 AM

This is a FF economics nightmare. Taxes were far to low for too long and the banks were unregulated and Government spending lost all links with what the country could afford.

Back in 1987 total government spending was £8.7bn. Last year 22 years later it was €71bn.   In 2009 Ireland spent €6bn on alcohol. Something has to give.

Long term spending (primarily public sector wages) was based on short term income, that short term income was mostly generated from the property bubble and included stampt duty, capital gains, vat, payroll taxes and even VRT and was never sustainable in the long run. 

Re the 6bn, what percentage of that was imported and what percentage was govt duty, it's an impressive figure alright, but it needs to be broken down and looked at in detail before we can blame alcohol for all our economic woes ;)

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on October 27, 2010, 10:29:45 AM
If you ignore inflation the alcohol spend isn't far off total government spending from 22 years ago. I think that's incredible. 

One thing is certain. There won't be anything like the growth of the last 22 years over the next 22 years. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on October 27, 2010, 10:43:54 AM
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/bank-probe-wont-examine-euro7bn-angloilp-transfer-2395884.html (http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/bank-probe-wont-examine-euro7bn-angloilp-transfer-2395884.html)

Unreal but yet more Bullshit - the reason they are not investigating is because the ex-head of Perm/TSB went public last week that he can prove the regulator was informed at all stages of why/what/how they were doing....this tacit /passive approval could be the trigger for Anglo shareholders to mount a class action against the Dept of Finance for losses due to the share collapse – if successful it could double the losses the Govt would have to stump up in relation to Anglo...and divert a serious # of legal and accountancy beaks back to their Celtic Tiger daily rates rather than the €180/day that NAMA now want to pay..

The rich get richer and the poor get hungrier – Joe Higgins was good on Prime Time last night remind Miriam that it was insane even at this point to continue to begger the country for Anglo et al..... at a price of 4 times the "missing" 15bn. Interesting contrast with France here as well http://www.rte.ie/player/#v=1083484 (http://www.rte.ie/player/#v=1083484)




Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on October 27, 2010, 10:44:06 AM
Quote from: Declan on October 27, 2010, 10:14:09 AM
Lads we were initially told that it would be 7 billion over the 4 years now it's 15 over 4 years and 7 in the first year. They haven't a clue and yet we merrily rumble along quoting figures that are frightening.I'm sick of saying this but the people who got us into this mess are incapable of getting us out of it yet every time I turn on the radio or TV I still have to listen to the same gobshites spouting the same nonsense be they politicians, economists or political commentators.  Though here's one that I enjoy reading

This is my point.

The only thing that hasn't changed is the 4 year term. I still haven't heard why 4 years have been decided on. With the numbers being thrown around changing from 3bn (two months ago) to 4bn (when the 4 year term was first mentioned) to 7bn and now 15bn. I think they haven't a clue. I kind of hope it might drop back to 3bn next week but that's just wishfull thinking. Even if Lenihan found a magic 12bn behind the sofa and it dropped back I would then expect it to jump to 20bn the following week.

The EU mentioned 4 years and that is accepted without explanation. Surely the EU should reconcider the 4 year term now that the figures they based that on have almost quadrupled?  Could our Government not even ask the EU to give us a little bit of hope and not demand we take 15bn in 4 years? After all it's the Irish people who will suffer from this. Why commit to a four year term anyway? The last commitment was based on a growth that didn't happen and there is no way of knowing if it will come in the next 4 years. The only thing we know is that it will be hard to grow when we take 15bn in 4 years.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: supersarsfields on October 27, 2010, 11:10:56 AM
Just on a side issue regarding Quinns and the FR. It seems they have made a real c**k up of things with regards to the job cuts. Despite being told by QD management and the employee committees that the job cuts were too large they deemed they knew best and tore on with all job cuts paying out huge amounts of redundancy pay in the process.
Now they've realised the balls they've made of it. They're having to employ temp staff in to do jobs as the company can't recruit full time staff. Not only that but they have left themselves that thread bare that they are now even putting in place a bonus for staff if they stay during the administration process as they can't afford for any more staff to leave. Costs of all the bonuses and redundancies all falling on QD obviously.
And that's before you take in the costs of near 450,000 euro a month to pay the administrators.

Money well spent alright.

(Apologies for the rant!)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on October 27, 2010, 11:21:58 AM
Quote from: Zapatista on October 27, 2010, 10:44:06 AMThis is my point.

The only thing that hasn't changed is the 4 year term. I still haven't heard why 4 years have been decided on. With the numbers being thrown around changing from 3bn (two months ago) to 4bn (when the 4 year term was first mentioned) to 7bn and now 15bn. I think they haven't a clue. I kind of hope it might drop back to 3bn next week but that's just wishfull thinking. Even if Lenihan found a magic 12bn behind the sofa and it dropped back I would then expect it to jump to 20bn the following week.

The EU mentioned 4 years and that is accepted without explanation. Surely the EU should reconcider the 4 year term now that the figures they based that on have almost quadrupled?  Could our Government not even ask the EU to give us a little bit of hope and not demand we take 15bn in 4 years? After all it's the Irish people who will suffer from this. Why commit to a four year term anyway? The last commitment was based on a growth that didn't happen and there is no way of knowing if it will come in the next 4 years. The only thing we know is that it will be hard to grow when we take 15bn in 4 years.
The problem with renegotiation of that term isn't that the EU couldn't fund us that bit longer or anything, it's the message it would send out to the rest of the eurozone. 
At the moment the EU are trying to pretend they'll be really tough with deficit rules breachers, ie above 3% of GDP, so renegotiating with Ireland would damage their credibility. 
From the inception of the euro the ecb made the mistake of allowing france and italy get away with annual double digit deficits, the others then followed suit, Ireland was almost the only one who used to hit the 3% target, now they're trying to implemement automatic fines for countries who breach the 3%, but it's touch and go as to whether that'll go through.  They have to act tough with Ireland, and we don't have a choice but to accede to their demands, because who else will help us?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on October 27, 2010, 11:36:49 AM
Quotebecause who else will help us?
Russia, China, Venezuela,Iran  are possibles;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on October 27, 2010, 12:22:07 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on October 27, 2010, 11:21:58 AM
The problem with renegotiation of that term isn't that the EU couldn't fund us that bit longer or anything, it's the message it would send out to the rest of the eurozone. 
At the moment the EU are trying to pretend they'll be really tough with deficit rules breachers, ie above 3% of GDP, so renegotiating with Ireland would damage their credibility. 
From the inception of the euro the ecb made the mistake of allowing france and italy get away with annual double digit deficits, the others then followed suit, Ireland was almost the only one who used to hit the 3% target, now they're trying to implemement automatic fines for countries who breach the 3%, but it's touch and go as to whether that'll go through.  They have to act tough with Ireland, and we don't have a choice but to accede to their demands, because who else will help us?

I'm concerned about were the 4 year term came from? What figures are the 4 year plan based on? Is it a shot in the dark and a case of the EU is not for turning?

If FG and Lab didn't have the figures how could the EU have had them?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on October 27, 2010, 12:53:37 PM
HOLY f**k!!!!!!!

DOF secretly paid off 7.9BN Anglo debt on last day of guarantee

http://www.politics.ie/economy/141313-dof-secretly-paid-off-7-9bn-anglo-debt-last-day-guarantee.html

Is this what was being discussed when Lab and FG went to meet the Government to discuss a four year plan on how to cut 7bn and walk out with a 15bn target?

Why were SF excluded from this meeting?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: whiskeysteve on October 27, 2010, 01:07:27 PM
As that thread references, here is Constantin Gurdgiev's latest tweet...

We face public debt >€130K by 2015 per ea working person in IRL + our private debts/mortgages. Can't rationally expect this to be repaid!

http://twitter.com/gtcost

Well thats that then, now what?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on October 27, 2010, 01:15:18 PM
Quote from: Declan on October 27, 2010, 11:36:49 AM
Quotebecause who else will help us?
Russia, China, Venezuela,Iran  are possibles;)
All of those countries are significantly poorer than Ireland. What would be in it for them?
There is enough money stashed away by the top 20% to change the dynamic in Ireland.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on October 27, 2010, 01:17:57 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on October 27, 2010, 12:22:07 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on October 27, 2010, 11:21:58 AM
The problem with renegotiation of that term isn't that the EU couldn't fund us that bit longer or anything, it's the message it would send out to the rest of the eurozone. 
At the moment the EU are trying to pretend they'll be really tough with deficit rules breachers, ie above 3% of GDP, so renegotiating with Ireland would damage their credibility. 
From the inception of the euro the ecb made the mistake of allowing france and italy get away with annual double digit deficits, the others then followed suit, Ireland was almost the only one who used to hit the 3% target, now they're trying to implemement automatic fines for countries who breach the 3%, but it's touch and go as to whether that'll go through.  They have to act tough with Ireland, and we don't have a choice but to accede to their demands, because who else will help us?

I'm concerned about were the 4 year term came from? What figures are the 4 year plan based on? Is it a shot in the dark and a case of the EU is not for turning?

If FG and Lab didn't have the figures how could the EU have had them?

The EU is running the show. Lenihan agreed the 4 years in front of the finance ministers of the rest of the EU. The bond markets expect the government to get the deficit in order and if they don't they won't lend any more money.  They probably won't get the deficit down to 3% by 2014 but have to make some sort of effort. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: whiskeysteve on October 27, 2010, 04:24:51 PM
An interesting blogpost that sheds light on who (the bondholders) exactly are, that are being bailed out by the Irish taxpayer.

http://golemxiv-credo.blogspot.com/2010/10/who-are-bond-holders-we-are-bailing-out.html

The biggest fraud ever committed against this country, rail roaded by an Irish government.

Behold your children condemned to a lifetime of debt to shore up the accounts of such individuals as 'Mr Spiro Latsis, son of a Greek shipping magnate.  He also owns 30% of Hellenic Petroleum.  His personal fortune is estimated to be about $9 Billion.'

Disgusting.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on October 27, 2010, 05:59:32 PM
I thought Joe Higgins did a good job on Prime Time but he could have nailed Dick Roche when he said for every 5 we spend we get 3 by pointing out that it was FF who eviscerated the tax system with procyclical tax cuts that left the government banjaxed when crisis came calling.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Main Street on October 27, 2010, 07:34:51 PM
That information does not exist Whiskeysteve, Brian Lenihan said so on 18-05-2010

"Detailed information on bondholders of domestic credit institutions' senior and subordinated debt is not available. Credit institutions, including Anglo Irish Bank, do not have access to comprehensive information on the holders of their senior and junior, or subordinated debt, because such debt is publicly traded and dealt through clearing house systems. Issuers do not have access to the records of those systems and the issuer has no means of establishing the underlying ownership of its bonds at any given time. Unlike in the case of shares, the holders of credit institutions' senior and subordinated debt instruments are not subject to a disclosure regime."

http://www.kildarestreet.com/wrans/?id=2010-05-18.985.0&s=brian+lenihan+anglo+bond+holders#g987.0.r (http://www.kildarestreet.com/wrans/?id=2010-05-18.985.0&s=brian+lenihan+anglo+bond+holders#g987.0.r)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on October 27, 2010, 11:17:39 PM
Quote from: seafoid on October 27, 2010, 01:17:57 PM
The EU is running the show. Lenihan agreed the 4 years in front of the finance ministers of the rest of the EU. The bond markets expect the government to get the deficit in order and if they don't they won't lend any more money.  They probably won't get the deficit down to 3% by 2014 but have to make some sort of effort.

Why did Lenihan agree to that and why hasn't that changed since the cuts have doubled? Why was 4 years the target in the first place? Someone must have applied a science to it?

Either Lenihan thinks the bond markets are stupid or they actually are stupid.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: trileacman on October 27, 2010, 11:32:40 PM
Quote from: Main Street on October 27, 2010, 07:34:51 PM
That information does not exist Whiskeysteve, Brian Lenihan said so on 18-05-2010

"Detailed information on bondholders of domestic credit institutions' senior and subordinated debt is not available. Credit institutions, including Anglo Irish Bank, do not have access to comprehensive information on the holders of their senior and junior, or subordinated debt, because such debt is publicly traded and dealt through clearing house systems. Issuers do not have access to the records of those systems and the issuer has no means of establishing the underlying ownership of its bonds at any given time. Unlike in the case of shares, the holders of credit institutions' senior and subordinated debt instruments are not subject to a disclosure regime."

http://www.kildarestreet.com/wrans/?id=2010-05-18.985.0&s=brian+lenihan+anglo+bond+holders#g987.0.r (http://www.kildarestreet.com/wrans/?id=2010-05-18.985.0&s=brian+lenihan+anglo+bond+holders#g987.0.r)

You sure of that?
Who are the bond holders then?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on October 28, 2010, 08:21:13 AM
QuoteAll of those countries are significantly poorer than Ireland. What would be in it for them?
There is enough money stashed away by the top 20% to change the dynamic in Ireland.

I was being sarcastic Seafoid with those suggestions. Agree with you second sentence.

That blog together with the rolling stone article earlier show who really run things yet our 4th estate ignore them completely and we have to listen to the usual plethora of half arsed gombeens and vested interest commentators. Will we see anything happen? As that bollix Bailey famously said "will we f**k" 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: whiskeysteve on October 28, 2010, 08:59:15 AM
Quote from: Main Street on October 27, 2010, 07:34:51 PM
Brian Lenihan said so
:D
:'(
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: whiskeysteve on October 28, 2010, 09:43:22 AM
Just on that list of bondholders, the blog link I posted was in response to the original list posted by blogger Guido Fawkes on October 15th.

http://order-order.com/2010/10/15/anglo-irish-bondholders-should-take-the-lossesis-the-ecb-forcing-ireland-to-protect-german-investments/

'Guido has obtained the list of foreign Anglo-Irish bondholders as at the close of business tonight. These are the people whom Dublin's politicians really seem to care about... Between them they hold Anglo-Irish bonds with a face-value of €4,034,756,880.'

I don't have a notion how legitimate that list may be but its interesting that it was quickly picked up on by other blogs, including the Financial Times. Whether that gives the list more creedance, I don't know.

As the first link says, the presence of Goldman sachs on the list sticks out, and by extension the role of Peter Sutherland in the bailout.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/are-irish-taxpayers-about-bail-out-goldman-peter-sutherland-stealing-his-own-people-give-vam

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/10/18/373161/aibaiting/

What do yous think?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on October 28, 2010, 09:58:31 AM
QuoteWhat do yous think?

My thoughts are pretty much encapsulated in the first paragraph of the rolling stone article - Although it refers explicitly to Goldman Sachs insert "the market" " "bondholders" etc

The first thing you need to know about Goldman Sachs is that it's everywhere. The world's most powerful investment bank is a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money. In fact, the history of the recent financial crisis, which doubles as a history of the rapid decline and fall of the suddenly swindled dry American empire, reads like a Who's Who of Goldman Sachs graduates

So I think Big Fat Suds and his mates have said the the clowns in our govt and DoF etc that keep doing what we tell you and we'll look after you and your families and f**k the little people
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on October 28, 2010, 10:59:42 AM
Quote from: Zapatista on October 27, 2010, 11:17:39 PM
Quote from: seafoid on October 27, 2010, 01:17:57 PM
The EU is running the show. Lenihan agreed the 4 years in front of the finance ministers of the rest of the EU. The bond markets expect the government to get the deficit in order and if they don't they won't lend any more money.  They probably won't get the deficit down to 3% by 2014 but have to make some sort of effort.

Why did Lenihan agree to that and why hasn't that changed since the cuts have doubled? Why was 4 years the target in the first place? Someone must have applied a science to it?

Either Lenihan thinks the bond markets are stupid or they actually are stupid.
yield hits 7.2% this morning, maybe not that stupid.  Dan O'Brien reckons it's 50:50 for a bailout now, i don't know why he's so optimistic :D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on October 28, 2010, 11:38:47 AM
Quote from: Bogball XV on October 28, 2010, 10:59:42 AM
yield hits 7.2% this morning, maybe not that stupid.  Dan O'Brien reckons it's 50:50 for a bailout now, i don't know why he's so optimistic :D

They haven't forgot Cowen telling the world that there was no cheque to big for him to sign. We are doing exactly what Lenihan wants and pleasing the bond market. What Lenihan doesn't understand is that 7.2% is very pleasing indeed.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on October 28, 2010, 01:50:24 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on October 28, 2010, 10:59:42 AM
Quote from: Zapatista on October 27, 2010, 11:17:39 PM
Quote from: seafoid on October 27, 2010, 01:17:57 PM
The EU is running the show. Lenihan agreed the 4 years in front of the finance ministers of the rest of the EU. The bond markets expect the government to get the deficit in order and if they don't they won't lend any more money.  They probably won't get the deficit down to 3% by 2014 but have to make some sort of effort.

Why did Lenihan agree to that and why hasn't that changed since the cuts have doubled? Why was 4 years the target in the first place? Someone must have applied a science to it?

Either Lenihan thinks the bond markets are stupid or they actually are stupid.
yield hits 7.2% this morning, maybe not that stupid.  Dan O'Brien reckons it's 50:50 for a bailout now, i don't know why he's so optimistic :D

It does look like the game is up. Unless there is a Seamus Darby somewhere..
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on October 28, 2010, 03:53:31 PM
Lenihan confirms to Burton: bulk of Anglo bondholders have already been bailed out.
Labour's Finance Spokesman Joan Burton has received a reply to a written parliamentary question to the Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan TD. The reply confirms to her that the bulk of Anglo Irish bondholders have already been bailed out.

So there you have it folks. It's done and dusted all the bondholders got bailed out and yet our sovereign bonds have an interest rate of nearly 7%. Before we gave the guarantee we had an interest rate of 3% odd.Yet we were told that bailing out the Banks bondholders was the only way to appease the sovereign bondmarkets.

Game over and we're left with the bill
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on October 28, 2010, 04:54:00 PM
Welcome to neoliberalism , Declan. Vote FF and this is what you get after the boom. The Anglo bonds are now held by the European Central bank and guaranteed by the State.   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on October 28, 2010, 07:59:02 PM
Quote from: seafoid on October 28, 2010, 04:54:00 PM
Welcome to neoliberalism , Declan. Vote FF and this is what you get after the boom. The Anglo bonds are now held by the European Central bank and guaranteed by the State.

Churchill said the Irish have no sense of outrage.

Given the pantomime nowadays it might be more apt to say the Irish have no sense of 'it's behind you!'
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Cde on October 29, 2010, 12:56:46 PM
for those of you who understand these things   why has bank shares really tanked in the last few days especially Bank of Ireland who have dropped nearly 20%
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on October 29, 2010, 01:43:05 PM
QuoteWelcome to neoliberalism , Declan

Unfortunately I'm all too aware of it Seafoid >:( >:(

Just chatting at lunchtime here with work colleagues and really the sense of fear is unreal amongst people. Genuinely don't know how they'll get through Christmas. Cutting back on all spending and if that's any barometer for the rest of the country you can forget about any recovery for a generation. 

This is from the Wall Street Journal today:

Governments on the edges of the euro zone face a serious new challenge: the prospect that investors who have shunned their bonds in recent months may abandon them for good.
While European leaders continue to say that all euro-zone government debts will be paid in full and on time, most big investors don't believe them. A survey of 582 investment institutions, carried out by Barclays Capital and released last week, showed 82% of them expected either debt restructuring, default or a full-fledged euro-zone crisis. (just as well we paid them to restore our confidence then! )
But the shift out of government bonds of Greece, Portugal, Ireland and even Spain is not just to do with the fear that investors will not be repaid in full and on time. It has also happened because the violent price shifts that have taken place over the last year mean that their bonds have lost many of the characteristics that most big bond buyers are seeking. "I think the biggest structural shift has been in market volatility," says Arif Husain, director of U.K. and European fixed income at AllianceBernstein, the asset-management firm.
He says investors usually buy bonds for one of four reasons:
• Stability. Many conservative investors are seeking security for their capital. After assuming for much of the last decade that they were buying safety in places like Greece—to the point where yields on Greek bonds fell almost to the levels of those on German bonds—they now discover it was an illusion.
Justin Knight, European rates strategist at UBS in London, says a host of investors—including U.S. bond funds with retail clients and non-European central banks, particularly in Asia—invested in such "peripheral" markets to secure higher yields, thinking at the same time they had secured low-risk and low-volatility. Now, they've been disabused, and have pulled out "not because they think governments on the periphery are going to default but because they shouldn't have been there in the first place," he says.
• They are seeking assets that move in the opposite direction to stocks.
This so-called negative correlation protects the value of their portfolio if prices of one asset class declines. Yet since the onset of the Greek crisis, at least until quite recently, prices of peripheral euro-zone debt have moved in tandem with risky assets such as shares, an undesirable positive correlation..
• Liability management.
Investors such as pension funds want to align their assets to their liabilities, so that their investments mature at the same time as future payouts to pensioners. Dutch pension funds, for example, thought they could match their liabilities with assets such as Spanish bonds. Now, the possibility of default has made them think again.
• Income generation.
Here the bonds from the periphery still do the job, now providing a bigger yield pick-up over German bonds than they did before, largely because the risks are perceived to be much higher.
The importance of investors in the fourth category is overwhelmed by those in the first three ,(so that totally screws us then..),and experts say their retreat is not a short-term phenomenon. "Bond markets have long memories," Mr. Husain says.
Mr. Knight notes another shift among a minority of investors: the changing of benchmarks to exclude all but the euro zone's core countries. These funds weight their purchases of bonds according to bond indexes, and have been underweight for some time in the peripheral markets. Now they want to formalize that shift, because they don't see a prospect of those markets providing low credit risk and low volatility (ok, so we are screwed for a generation -20/25 yrs not a decade)..
"We have several accounts that are changing their benchmarks. That's a big deal. You have to explain to your clients what you are doing and why you are doing it. It's not something that you do lightly and you don't do it often so they won't be changing back any time soon," he says.
These factors suggest long-term shifts in investor appetites that will radically shrink the universe of buyers for bonds from the euro zone's periphery for the foreseeable future.
Supply, meanwhile, is coming at full tilt.
Although governments are making stringent efforts to cut budget deficits, they won't be able to do that quickly enough to scale back soon the flood of issues needed to cover the deficits and repay maturing debt. For a year or two, gross bond issuance will be running at two, three or four times the levels of the pre-crisis years, Mr. Knight says—even as demand has shrunk Selling these bonds will be a challenge. ( = we have zero prospect of borrowing in the bond market that we exited last month (because "we had enough money to keep us going...for the moment...).As politicians discuss ways to prevent the next crisis at the European Union summit continuing Friday in Brussels, this dynamic in the bond markets suggests they shouldn't be too confident about having surmounted the current one.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on October 29, 2010, 04:02:35 PM
Quote from: Cde on October 29, 2010, 12:56:46 PM
for those of you who understand these things   why has bank shares really tanked in the last few days especially Bank of Ireland who have dropped nearly 20%

It is probably linked to the news about the cuts of €15bn which show that the news for the economy and thus the banks' profit prospects are not great over the next 4 years.   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on October 29, 2010, 05:31:42 PM
Declan

I think the bond traders are goading the EU to do something about the worries over default. They are very sensitive at the moment.

A default by one of the peripheral countries could trigger another global panic. It's not as if the financial system is on solid ground at the moment. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: trileacman on October 29, 2010, 06:49:10 PM
Quote from: seafoid on October 29, 2010, 05:31:42 PM
Declan

I think the bond traders are goading the EU to do something about the worries over default. They are very sensitive at the moment.
I thought the bail-outs have ruled out default? And I thought the EU, whether officially or not, have ruled out the possibility of default and that is why the Irish government had to guarantee the bonds?

Quote from: seafoid on October 29, 2010, 05:31:42 PM
A default by one of the peripheral countries could trigger another global panic.
In the sense that one country defaulting could lead to several defaulting?? Kind of a domino effect?

Forgive my ignorance but I know very little of this current situation.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on October 29, 2010, 06:52:28 PM
Quote from: trileacman on October 29, 2010, 06:49:10 PM
Quote from: seafoid on October 29, 2010, 05:31:42 PM
Declan

I think the bond traders are goading the EU to do something about the worries over default. They are very sensitive at the moment.
I thought the bail-outs have ruled out default? And I thought the EU, whether officially or not, have ruled out the possibility of default and that is why the Irish government had to guarantee the bonds?

Quote from: seafoid on October 29, 2010, 05:31:42 PM
A default by one of the peripheral countries could trigger another global panic.
In the sense that one country defaulting could lead to several defaulting?? Kind of a domino effect?

Forgive my ignorance but I know very little of this current situation.

That puts you level with most of us but well ahead of the Government.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: trileacman on October 29, 2010, 07:02:45 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 29, 2010, 06:52:28 PM
Quote from: trileacman on October 29, 2010, 06:49:10 PM
Quote from: seafoid on October 29, 2010, 05:31:42 PM
Declan

I think the bond traders are goading the EU to do something about the worries over default. They are very sensitive at the moment.
I thought the bail-outs have ruled out default? And I thought the EU, whether officially or not, have ruled out the possibility of default and that is why the Irish government had to guarantee the bonds?

Quote from: seafoid on October 29, 2010, 05:31:42 PM
A default by one of the peripheral countries could trigger another global panic.
In the sense that one country defaulting could lead to several defaulting?? Kind of a domino effect?

Forgive my ignorance but I know very little of this current situation.

That puts you level with most of us but well ahead of the Government.
I would believe the Government would be level with me but probably not as truthful about what they don't know.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on October 29, 2010, 09:49:21 PM
Quote from: trileacman on October 29, 2010, 06:49:10 PM
Quote from: seafoid on October 29, 2010, 05:31:42 PM
Declan

I think the bond traders are goading the EU to do something about the worries over default. They are very sensitive at the moment.
I thought the bail-outs have ruled out default? And I thought the EU, whether officially or not, have ruled out the possibility of default and that is why the Irish government had to guarantee the bonds?

Quote from: seafoid on October 29, 2010, 05:31:42 PM
A default by one of the peripheral countries could trigger another global panic.
In the sense that one country defaulting could lead to several defaulting?? Kind of a domino effect?


Trileacman

The EU drew a line in the sand that said no bond investor left behind but the bondwallahs are not buying it.  The repayment of the debt depends on lots of factors over which the EU has no control. If enough banks etc  sell their Irish bonds and the price falls enough to mean that the interest yield on the bonds rises to 10% then Ireland will not be able to borrow any new money from the bond markets. And that would mean that the budget would have to be cut by 20bn in one year.  Which would mean that the economy would tank and that it would be very hard to give all of the bond investors their capital back.   

If you are interested I can recommend the book "the coming first world debt crisis" by Ann Pettifor which was written in 2006. 

The markets are all about confidence. If Ireland or Spain went people would be very worried about Portugal and Italy and then France and Belgium etc.  It is a bit like a crowd losing confidence in a team.  Hard to explain what drives it but once the crowd loses heart the game is usually lost. 

The people making the decisions about what to buy and sell are young traders in London who have no idea about anything else. Mostly interested in coke and prostitutes apparently. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: ardmhachaabu on October 29, 2010, 09:57:42 PM
Quote from: seafoid on October 29, 2010, 09:49:21 PM
Quote from: trileacman on October 29, 2010, 06:49:10 PM
Quote from: seafoid on October 29, 2010, 05:31:42 PM
Declan

I think the bond traders are goading the EU to do something about the worries over default. They are very sensitive at the moment.
I thought the bail-outs have ruled out default? And I thought the EU, whether officially or not, have ruled out the possibility of default and that is why the Irish government had to guarantee the bonds?

Quote from: seafoid on October 29, 2010, 05:31:42 PM
A default by one of the peripheral countries could trigger another global panic.
In the sense that one country defaulting could lead to several defaulting?? Kind of a domino effect?


Trileacman

The EU drew a line in the sand that said no bond investor left behind but the bondwallahs are not buying it.  The repayment of the debt depends on lots of factors over which the EU has no control. If enough banks etc  sell their Irish bonds and the price falls enough to mean that the interest yield on the bonds rises to 10% then Ireland will not be able to borrow any new money from the bond markets. And that would mean that the budget would have to be cut by 20bn in one year.  Which would mean that the economy would tank and that it would be very hard to give all of the bond investors their capital back.   

If you are interested I can recommend the book "the coming first world debt crisis" by Ann Pettifor which was written in 2006. 

The markets are all about confidence. If Ireland or Spain went people would be very worried about Portugal and Italy and then France and Belgium etc.  It is a bit like a crowd losing confidence in a team.  Hard to explain what drives it but once the crowd loses heart the game is usually lost. 

The people making the decisions about what to buy and sell are young traders in London who have no idea about anything else. Mostly interested in coke and prostitutes apparently.
Isn't capitalism great?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Main Street on October 30, 2010, 11:48:54 AM
Quote from: trileacman on October 29, 2010, 07:02:45 PM
I would believe the Government would be level with me but probably not as truthful about what they don't know.

The bigger issue is that they are not truthful about what they do know.

To go back earlier to the answer that Lenihan gave in the Dail to the question of 'who are the Bondholders', he began his answer with
"Detailed information on bondholders of domestic credit institutions' senior and subordinated debt is not available."

That the biggest crock of sh'ite.

Once upon a time, Irish Gamblers -  called Permanent Anglo Irish Nationwide inc. -   Pain inc. or  PANIC for short - were desperate for cash after their iou's were losing value like sand flowing though a timer. The sand was moving fast to the  bottom container - a deep dark bottomless pit.  Panic had borrowed money from a  loose flush well dressed money lender called Lucky Lucy, who all those years ago flashed his card to them on the golf course, it read - 'Lucky Luke, Senior Bondholder esq'.

Unfortunately, Lucky Luke ran into a bit of trouble after spending a week in Las Vegas and needed some cash urgently, as he was about to gain another nickname - Thumbless Luke. In dire straights, he passed on Panic's iou to another money lender, for cash. That money lender's calling card grimly read 'subordinated  debt' - SOD for short.
SOD inspected Lucky Luke's  iou s. The written value was for the fantastic amount of €30bn. SOD  took a mere glance at who the  "I" was in the iou and offered 17%. You see,  Panic were really the most despised creatures as they would rob their family and friends to support their feckless ways, they were not seen to be very worthy people, they were esteemed no higher than a junkie.
SOD was a canny enough but nevertheless a mean and ruthless gambler who thought there was a reasonable chance of getting at least the 17% back of the value of the iou´s  and who knows what else might happen?
But who could have predicted their good fortune.
There was no guarantee of anything, as the iou´s were not witnessed and stamped in the official way, just a few scribbles on a scrap of paper. If it went to the Courts, the judge would laugh them out of it.

Panic, as predicted, fall flat on their face and turned to the Irish Government for help. Panic had fronted all the bank loans to the people who put the Government into power and who had kept them well oiled. Now SOD was after Panic.
Our minister Brian Lenihan, has some experience in these matters, as rumour had it  he did a few tax returns for some of his mates and they were very happy with his work. Brian knew he need extra help. He turned to the same people who advise SOD, for some urgent wisdom and paid them handsomely for their words. They wrote the advice on a piece of paper and handed it to him, it said   -  "pay up - everything -  you have to save Panic's honour".


Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 01, 2010, 02:17:32 PM
7.06% at lunchtime – Guess where Biffo is???








Opening a bleedin Tescos in Naas!!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 01, 2010, 02:22:39 PM
Quote from: Declan on November 01, 2010, 02:17:32 PM
7.06% at lunchtime – Guess where Biffo is???








Opening a bleedin Tescos in Naas!!!

I wonder when he's at the opening and talking about how it'll see the creation of 80(?) jobs, whether he'll mention that other local shops might see a few jobs go, or do they think that a new supermarket opening will actually lead to increased demand in the country as a whole and thus a net creation of jobs?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 02, 2010, 11:01:20 AM
Up to 7.22%


I saw an interview with Brian Cowen in the Irish Times of last week. Presumably it was supposed to be some kind of reassurance to worried taxpayers.   Zero credibility.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on November 02, 2010, 11:17:38 AM
Quote from: seafoid on November 02, 2010, 11:01:20 AM
Up to 7.22%


I saw an interview with Brian Cowen in the Irish Times of last week. Presumably it was supposed to be some kind of reassurance to worried taxpayers.   Zero credibility.

Was the interview done outside an Aldi store? Aldi have opened about 10 stores in the last year or two yet Cowen only has time to attend the opening of a Tesco store. I wonder who opened all the Aldi stores. Would it not bring reassurance to know that the Germans were taking over?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 02, 2010, 11:27:53 AM
Quote from: Zapatista on November 02, 2010, 11:17:38 AM
Quote from: seafoid on November 02, 2010, 11:01:20 AM
Up to 7.22%


I saw an interview with Brian Cowen in the Irish Times of last week. Presumably it was supposed to be some kind of reassurance to worried taxpayers.   Zero credibility.

Was the interview done outside an Aldi store? Aldi have opened about 10 stores in the last year or two yet Cowen only has time to attend the opening of a Tesco store. I wonder who opened all the Aldi stores. Would it not bring reassurance to know that the Germans were taking over?
Maybe Aldi had the wit to know that having the biffo at a store opening wasn't really a good pr message.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 02, 2010, 11:39:38 AM
FF are at 18% in the polls. I wonder is there any chance of Biffo losing his seat in the next election. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 02, 2010, 11:54:35 AM
http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2010/11/01/who'll-invest-in-a-country-with-an-obvious-death-wish?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+Davidmcwilliams+(DavidMcWilliams.ie) (http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2010/11/01/who'll-invest-in-a-country-with-an-obvious-death-wish?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+Davidmcwilliams+(DavidMcWilliams.ie))
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hereiam on November 02, 2010, 12:29:13 PM
The government know that alot of people have savings built up over the years, they know the people will not let go of these savings as people will not spend, so the only way they can get their hands on this money is to tax the shite out of the people so that they will have no choice but to start using their savings. Simple as that. The government is going to get its hands on ur money wether u like it or not.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 02, 2010, 01:22:36 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1102/ntma-business.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1102/ntma-business.html)

7.33%

Going......going........

Edit: The RTE link says it reached 7.338% but the Bloomberg one suggests a high of 7.23%. Either way if the budget isn't the most draconian in our history, we are history.

Now I understand what McDaid is at. He'll probably emigrate tomorrow.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 02, 2010, 01:41:53 PM
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GIGB10YR:IND

is a good link for the bond agony

It is all about the patterns now. The path of the 10 year bond yield over 4 months looks very very like the path of the Greek 10 year over 4 months at the same stage a few months back before it all went tits up.  And that is what the traders will be looking at. Like a spider caught in a sink when the tap is turned on. It works for a while and then the flow is unstoppable.  And it is bye bye spider.  Or like a target in the sights of a drone operator. The fella behind the screen locks on target. And then shoots.   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 02, 2010, 02:06:37 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 02, 2010, 01:41:53 PM
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GIGB10YR:IND

is a good link for the bond agony

It is all about the patterns now. The path of the 10 year bond yield over 4 months looks very very like the path of the Greek 10 year over 4 months at the same stage a few months back before it all went tits up.  And that is what the traders will be looking at. Like a spider caught in a sink when the tap is turned on. It works for a while and then the flow is unstoppable.  And it is bye bye spider.  Or like a target in the sights of a drone operator. The fella behind the screen locks on target. And then shoots.

When you look at that graph it is interesting how little time we have spent below 5% this year. That is that a rate above which we were told borrowing was 'unsustainable'.
(http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?h=200&w=280&range=1y&type=gp_line&cfg=BQuoteComp_10.xml&ticks=GIGB10YR%3AIND&img=png)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 02, 2010, 03:12:15 PM
What is also noteworthy is how the Greek problem drove up yields to levels that have never settled back to the previous pattern.   Once the bond markets turn it is almost impossible to recover the perception that existed beforehand.

FF freakonomics
I think the property explosion was just too big for the jurisdiction. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 02, 2010, 05:38:24 PM
7.30%.  Today the yield is up by 0.15%

That's €30 million extra in interest payments on next year's borrowing caused by today's trading movement.

Since July the yield has risen by 2.3%. That's €460 million in extra interest on a full year's €20bn borrowing.     
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 02, 2010, 06:34:00 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 02, 2010, 05:38:24 PM
7.30%.  Today the yield is up by 0.15%

That's €30 million extra in interest payments on next year's borrowing caused by today's trading movement.

Since July the yield has risen by 2.3%. That's €460 million in extra interest on a full year's €20bn borrowing.   
and all this despite it being reported that NAMA has made €6M so far the year - those bond markets aren't on top of this yet - maybe we should pool our resources and give them a bloody nose!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 03, 2010, 09:46:55 AM
7.41%

Another 20 million in interest
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on November 03, 2010, 10:51:46 AM
Quote from: seafoid on November 03, 2010, 09:46:55 AM
7.41%

Another 20 million in interest

Will you stop posting!!! Everytime you post we are another 20m in debt!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 03, 2010, 11:57:39 AM
Quote from: seafoid on November 03, 2010, 09:46:55 AM
7.41%

Another 20 million in interest
but we're not paying this interest rate, this is just the implied yield that the bonds already issued are trading at.  It won't be until we go back to the markets in April that we'll have to pay such rates - except that Emmett Oliver was pointing out that the ECB are willing to stump up at 5%, but they may have a few conditions - corporation tax rate being one!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 03, 2010, 12:15:04 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on November 03, 2010, 11:57:39 AM
Quote from: seafoid on November 03, 2010, 09:46:55 AM
7.41%

Another 20 million in interest
but we're not paying this interest rate, this is just the implied yield that the bonds already issued are trading at.  It won't be until we go back to the markets in April that we'll have to pay such rates - except that Emmett Oliver was pointing out that the ECB are willing to stump up at 5%, but they may have a few conditions - corporation tax rate being one!!

Thereby removing the only route to any sort of recovery.

Better off defaulting and lowering the corporate tax rate.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 03, 2010, 12:41:21 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 03, 2010, 12:15:04 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on November 03, 2010, 11:57:39 AM
Quote from: seafoid on November 03, 2010, 09:46:55 AM
7.41%

Another 20 million in interest
but we're not paying this interest rate, this is just the implied yield that the bonds already issued are trading at.  It won't be until we go back to the markets in April that we'll have to pay such rates - except that Emmett Oliver was pointing out that the ECB are willing to stump up at 5%, but they may have a few conditions - corporation tax rate being one!!

Thereby removing the only route to any sort of recovery.

Better off defaulting and lowering the corporate tax rate.
hard to say really, i don't think in the long run we'll get away with our CT rate anyway and I've said before that I can't see how a single currency can be expected to last when there are such vastly differing tax and expenditures policies within it.
We should have been using the income generated from MNC's to plan for a future without MNC's, because experience shows they cannot be relied upon to stick around when the going gets tough.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 03, 2010, 01:12:26 PM
I think that is a very good point about MNCs, Bogball. Do you remember 1984 when Ford, Dunlop and some other MNC pulled out of Cork ? 

The Government had no long term vision other than eternal property price rises so it's no surprise they were so vulnerable when crisis came calling.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 03, 2010, 01:14:20 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 03, 2010, 01:12:26 PM
I think that is a very good point about MNCs, Bogball. Do you remember 1984 when Ford, Dunlop and some other MNC pulled out of Cork ? 

The Government had no long term vision other than eternal property price rises so it's no surprise they were so vulnerable when crisis came calling.

We gave away the only natural resource we have. We don't produce anything else so if the Corporate tax rate advantage we offers goes we will become some abandoned desolate part of europe, like parts of the mid-west USA after the great depression.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 03, 2010, 02:00:30 PM
7.5%

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1103/ntma-business.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1103/ntma-business.html)

Yes it is a rate that we are not borrowing at, yet.

But it is a bit like Oireachtas Celtic having drawn Barcelona in the Champions League. You don't play them for a few weeks yet, but you have to watch them beat the likes of Real Madrid and Juventus 10-0 every week as it gets closer.

And Brian Cowen will be marking Messi.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Rossie11 on November 03, 2010, 02:44:04 PM
Very good Muppet..   :D
Although I reckon Cowen would make a better fist of that job than the one he currently has..
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 03, 2010, 02:51:54 PM
Quote from: Rossie11 on November 03, 2010, 02:44:04 PM
Very good Muppet..   :D
Although I reckon Cowen would make a better fist of that job than the one he currently has..
I don't know about that Rossie, was he not on the offaly u21 football team that lost to Kilkenny?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 03, 2010, 03:18:23 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 03, 2010, 02:00:30 PM
7.5%

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1103/ntma-business.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1103/ntma-business.html)

Yes it is a rate that we are not borrowing at, yet.

But it is a bit like Oireachtas Celtic having drawn Barcelona in the Champions League. You don't play them for a few weeks yet, but you have to watch them beat the likes of Real Madrid and Juventus 10-0 every week as it gets closer.

And Brian Cowen will be marking Messi.

Cowen is very Messi
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: whiskeysteve on November 04, 2010, 10:22:38 AM
Irish 10 year bond bids soared today and now touching 7.9%.  :o

http://twitter.com/brianmlucey

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 04, 2010, 11:17:19 AM
They'll be 8% by Friday.

It reminds me of this

http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2010/aug/18/zombie-carpenter-ant-fungus

The fungus, which is alive and well in forests today, latches on to carpenter ants as they cross the forest floor before returning to their nests high in the canopy. The fungus grows inside the ants and releases chemicals that affect their behaviour. Some ants leave the colony and wander off to find fresh leaves on their own, while others fall from their tree-top havens on to leaves nearer the ground. The final stage of the parasitic death sentence is the most macabre. In their last hours, infected ants move towards the underside of the leaf they are on and lock their mandibles in a "death grip" around the central vein, immobilising themselves and locking the fungus in position.


Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 04, 2010, 02:02:30 PM
Robbed this from politics .ie


http://media.todayfm.com/listenback (http://media.todayfm.com/listenback)/

go to the last word, wednesday, part 3 and 23.30 minutes in.


I think everyone on this site should listen.

I now there is another thread but i feel this deserves a thread of its on cause it has a link to the clip.
If its merged with the other thread i feel it will be overlooked by alot of posters. I believe everyone here should listen.
Great rant followed by some common sense and simple enough solutions.

never before have i heard anyone on Irish radio call it as it is. Its like a breath of fresh air to finally hear someone echo exactly what the vast majority of people think is happening, the bailout of the elite to the detriment of the working and middle class.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 04, 2010, 05:59:07 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1104/politics.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1104/politics.html)

€6 Billion budget. Double last year's and double what he forecast for this year.

It was between €3 & €4 Billion only a couple of months ago during the 'drunk' radio interview.

Reading a very good book called 'The Big Short' by Michael Lewis. Only a 3rd into it but you can see how some clever financiers correctly predicted the subprime crash and then figured out how to profit from it. They invented CDS's first (then CDOs) which were basically bets (called insurance but without any insurance funding requirements) paid annually that the market would crash. The transactions were incredibly complex, to disguise the reality from experts, but the logic was very very simple.

Applying the same simple logic to here would suggest we are going to commit economic suicide.

We had a property bubble (but not quite the sub-prime one they had, yet)
However by increasing austerity measures to pay to bail out the banks we are going to force more people into default, which will increase the bank debts,
which will push the bill for the bailout out higher,
which requires further austerity measures and so on....

To add to this the banks are raising interest rates on those not on trackers or fixed rates. Some of these will have got big mortgages near the top of the boom and the tax increases and pay cuts will force them into default meaning more taxpayers' money to the banks.

What am I missing that is going to save us?

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on November 04, 2010, 06:26:42 PM
Lenny's pennies is the answer. Ireland has to devalue/ renege.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Evil Genius on November 04, 2010, 07:42:45 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 04, 2010, 05:59:07 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1104/politics.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1104/politics.html)

€6 Billion budget. Double last year's and double what he forecast for this year.

It was between €3 & €4 Billion only a couple of months ago during the 'drunk' radio interview.

Reading a very good book called 'The Big Short' by Michael Lewis. Only a 3rd into it but you can see how some clever financiers correctly predicted the subprime crash and then figured out how to profit from it. They invented CDS's first (then CDOs) which were basically bets (called insurance but without any insurance funding requirements) paid annually that the market would crash. The transactions were incredibly complex, to disguise the reality from experts, but the logic was very very simple.

Applying the same simple logic to here would suggest we are going to commit economic suicide.

We had a property bubble (but not quite the sub-prime one they had, yet)
However by increasing austerity measures to pay to bail out the banks we are going to force more people into default, which will increase the bank debts,
which will push the bill for the bailout out higher,
which requires further austerity measures and so on....

To add to this the banks are raising interest rates on those not on trackers or fixed rates. Some of these will have got big mortgages near the top of the boom and the tax increases and pay cuts will force them into default meaning more taxpayers' money to the banks.

What am I missing that is going to save us?
Repossession by the United Kingdom*?

OK, we'd take over the Deeds, but I'm sure you could get to stay in the property on a rental basis...

* - Sometime in 2016 would have a nice symmetry to it, I'd say...
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 04, 2010, 08:53:51 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 04, 2010, 05:59:07 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1104/politics.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1104/politics.html)

€6 Billion budget. Double last year's and double what he forecast for this year.

It was between €3 & €4 Billion only a couple of months ago during the 'drunk' radio interview.

Reading a very good book called 'The Big Short' by Michael Lewis. Only a 3rd into it but you can see how some clever financiers correctly predicted the subprime crash and then figured out how to profit from it. They invented CDS's first (then CDOs) which were basically bets (called insurance but without any insurance funding requirements) paid annually that the market would crash. The transactions were incredibly complex, to disguise the reality from experts, but the logic was very very simple.

Applying the same simple logic to here would suggest we are going to commit economic suicide.

We had a property bubble (but not quite the sub-prime one they had, yet)
However by increasing austerity measures to pay to bail out the banks we are going to force more people into default, which will increase the bank debts,
which will push the bill for the bailout out higher,
which requires further austerity measures and so on....

To add to this the banks are raising interest rates on those not on trackers or fixed rates. Some of these will have got big mortgages near the top of the boom and the tax increases and pay cuts will force them into default meaning more taxpayers' money to the banks.

What am I missing that is going to save us?

Exports!

Actually there is plenty of money in Ireland. It will probably get to the stage where outside assistance is required. And they will ask for everyone to chip in. And Croke Park won't last. Neither will top rate pensions tax relief. Consultants will take a big pay cut. Agus mar sin de.

the St Vincent De Paul press releaser today put it all into focus.

As did the sickening Healy Rae list of demands. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 04, 2010, 09:02:59 PM
Quote from: Evil Genius on November 04, 2010, 07:42:45 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 04, 2010, 05:59:07 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1104/politics.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1104/politics.html)

€6 Billion budget. Double last year's and double what he forecast for this year.

It was between €3 & €4 Billion only a couple of months ago during the 'drunk' radio interview.

Reading a very good book called 'The Big Short' by Michael Lewis. Only a 3rd into it but you can see how some clever financiers correctly predicted the subprime crash and then figured out how to profit from it. They invented CDS's first (then CDOs) which were basically bets (called insurance but without any insurance funding requirements) paid annually that the market would crash. The transactions were incredibly complex, to disguise the reality from experts, but the logic was very very simple.

Applying the same simple logic to here would suggest we are going to commit economic suicide.

We had a property bubble (but not quite the sub-prime one they had, yet)
However by increasing austerity measures to pay to bail out the banks we are going to force more people into default, which will increase the bank debts,
which will push the bill for the bailout out higher,
which requires further austerity measures and so on....

To add to this the banks are raising interest rates on those not on trackers or fixed rates. Some of these will have got big mortgages near the top of the boom and the tax increases and pay cuts will force them into default meaning more taxpayers' money to the banks.

What am I missing that is going to save us?
Repossession by the United Kingdom*?

OK, we'd take over the Deeds, but I'm sure you could get to stay in the property on a rental basis...

* - Sometime in 2016 would have a nice symmetry to it, I'd say...
If you take over the €500bn we owe, i know who gets the better deal.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: FermGael on November 04, 2010, 11:00:02 PM
Quote from: Declan on November 04, 2010, 02:02:30 PM
Robbed this from politics .ie


http://media.todayfm.com/listenback (http://media.todayfm.com/listenback)/

go to the last word, wednesday, part 3 and 23.30 minutes in.


I think everyone on this site should listen.

I now there is another thread but i feel this deserves a thread of its on cause it has a link to the clip.
If its merged with the other thread i feel it will be overlooked by alot of posters. I believe everyone here should listen.
Great rant followed by some common sense and simple enough solutions.

never before have i heard anyone on Irish radio call it as it is. Its like a breath of fresh air to finally hear someone echo exactly what the vast majority of people think is happening, the bailout of the elite to the detriment of the working and middle class.

Very true. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on November 05, 2010, 07:29:48 AM
Quote from: Evil Genius on November 04, 2010, 07:42:45 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 04, 2010, 05:59:07 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1104/politics.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1104/politics.html)

€6 Billion budget. Double last year's and double what he forecast for this year.

It was between €3 & €4 Billion only a couple of months ago during the 'drunk' radio interview.

Reading a very good book called 'The Big Short' by Michael Lewis. Only a 3rd into it but you can see how some clever financiers correctly predicted the subprime crash and then figured out how to profit from it. They invented CDS's first (then CDOs) which were basically bets (called insurance but without any insurance funding requirements) paid annually that the market would crash. The transactions were incredibly complex, to disguise the reality from experts, but the logic was very very simple.

Applying the same simple logic to here would suggest we are going to commit economic suicide.

We had a property bubble (but not quite the sub-prime one they had, yet)
However by increasing austerity measures to pay to bail out the banks we are going to force more people into default, which will increase the bank debts,
which will push the bill for the bailout out higher,
which requires further austerity measures and so on....

To add to this the banks are raising interest rates on those not on trackers or fixed rates. Some of these will have got big mortgages near the top of the boom and the tax increases and pay cuts will force them into default meaning more taxpayers' money to the banks.

What am I missing that is going to save us?
Repossession by the United Kingdom*?

OK, we'd take over the Deeds, but I'm sure you could get to stay in the property on a rental basis...

* - Sometime in 2016 would have a nice symmetry to it, I'd say...

That would be akin to a badly run company taking over a worse run one. Are you not afraid we rejoin and lumped together with the North as Ireland again. Say 2025 we demand an ungerrymandered vote on 32 County Independence with a clean economic bill of health and a 32 County United Irish Republic  ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on November 05, 2010, 08:04:27 AM
Quote from: seafoid on November 04, 2010, 11:17:19 AM
They'll be 8% by Friday.



What do you think would be the breaking point? If it's 7.5-8% come April would we be able to borrow?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on November 05, 2010, 08:21:18 AM
The 4 year plan (which I still don't know why we need) is to be delyaed untill after the by-election in Donegal. If the idea is to relaease the plan to steady  the markets surely it's economic treason to delay it? The decision to delay it is to save FF from announcing more bad news before the by-election. If this has an impact on the economy then are FF putting the party before the people/country?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 05, 2010, 08:30:09 AM
Quote from: Zapatista on November 05, 2010, 08:04:27 AM
Quote from: seafoid on November 04, 2010, 11:17:19 AM
They'll be 8% by Friday.



What do you think would be the breaking point? If it's 7.5-8% come April would we be able to borrow?

Zapatista

Maybe it won't be 8% by Friday! But it isn't going back down to the 4.5% it was at at the beginning of the year.
8% is just too expensive.  It's €1.6 bn per annum on on €20bn of new borrowing just to pay day to day bills.  It's as if the government is on social welfare and is using its credit card to pay for the weekly shop.

The government cuts €4bn this year and will cut a shocking €6bn next year but at 8% interest all of the social welfare cuts and more would go just to pay off the interest on new borrowing.   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on November 05, 2010, 08:33:05 AM
Quote from: seafoid on November 05, 2010, 08:30:09 AM
Quote from: Zapatista on November 05, 2010, 08:04:27 AM
Quote from: seafoid on November 04, 2010, 11:17:19 AM
They'll be 8% by Friday.



What do you think would be the breaking point? If it's 7.5-8% come April would we be able to borrow?

Zapatista

Maybe it won't be 8% by Friday! But it isn't going back down to the 4.5% it was at at the beginning of the year.
8% is just too expensive.  It's €1.6 bn per annum on on €20bn of new borrowing just to pay day to day bills.  It's as if the government is on social welfare and is using its credit card to pay for the weekly shop.

The government cuts €4bn this year and will cut a shocking €6bn next year but at 8% interest all of the social welfare cuts and more would go just to pay off the interest on new borrowing.

Do you think that would mean bail out/IMF regardless of the austerity plans?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 05, 2010, 08:40:06 AM
Quote from: Zapatista on November 05, 2010, 08:21:18 AM
The 4 year plan (which I still don't know why we need) is to be delyaed untill after the by-election in Donegal. If the idea is to relaease the plan to steady  the markets surely it's economic treason to delay it? The decision to delay it is to save FF from announcing more bad news before the by-election. If this has an impact on the economy then are FF putting the party before the people/country?

Agree totally. They may not get away with it especially if the bond yield drifts upwards.  FF is more important than the rest of the country.

The situation is quite unstable. The opposition don't get to see the numbers and if there is a snap election they will be expected to prepare a Budget. They don't have any way of doing that before the election. FF are working on a budget that someone else will implement. 

Ta sé lofa ina iomlán.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 05, 2010, 08:42:33 AM
Quote from: Zapatista on November 05, 2010, 08:33:05 AM
Quote from: seafoid on November 05, 2010, 08:30:09 AM
Quote from: Zapatista on November 05, 2010, 08:04:27 AM
Quote from: seafoid on November 04, 2010, 11:17:19 AM
They'll be 8% by Friday.



What do you think would be the breaking point? If it's 7.5-8% come April would we be able to borrow?

Zapatista

Maybe it won't be 8% by Friday! But it isn't going back down to the 4.5% it was at at the beginning of the year.
8% is just too expensive.  It's €1.6 bn per annum on on €20bn of new borrowing just to pay day to day bills.  It's as if the government is on social welfare and is using its credit card to pay for the weekly shop.

The government cuts €4bn this year and will cut a shocking €6bn next year but at 8% interest all of the social welfare cuts and more would go just to pay off the interest on new borrowing.

Do you think that would mean bail out/IMF regardless of the austerity plans?

If the bond yield doesn't go down meaning if the bond markets don't think the budget will work then I think the game is up. If private capital is too expensive the government won't have any choice.  The EU will try to prevent this step from happening because if Ireland goes the way of Greece, Portugal will follow and Spain would be up next.   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hereiam on November 05, 2010, 09:52:54 AM
Kings of Leon at Slane Castle is sold out. This is how much the recession means to the young people of Ireland. They are still spending there money on things they don't need.
On another note Tesco says that its Ireland stores are the most profitable, yet Tesco operates out of Switzerland thus paying no tax to any government. The day that we moved away from the local shops etc was the start of our problems
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 05, 2010, 09:56:50 AM
The situation is slipping away from the Government


Chile's government has put the entire Irish funds industry on a watch list because Ireland's sovereign debt woes have triggered a regulation requiring total withdrawal from the country.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/948d213e-e83c-11df-8995-00144feab49a.html#axzz14OrLoGCa

Fears over the health of the eurozone bond market intensified after one of Europe's biggest clearing houses warned investors they could be compelled to stump up substantially more money to trade in Ireland's debt. LCH Clearnet told members they might be required to deposit more cash to trade in Irish sovereign bonds, a move that is being widely interpreted as a signal that the organisation will act next week.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3af7e838-e847-11df-8995-00144feab49a.html#axzz14OtDBImD
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hereiam on November 05, 2010, 10:05:55 AM
IRELAND IS SAVED!!!! THE GOVERNEMENT IS GIVING AWAY FREE CHEESE
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: gerrykeegan on November 05, 2010, 10:06:19 AM
Mental note to myself, never go drinking with seafoid and the muppet. George Glee has   nothing on you two.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 05, 2010, 10:14:06 AM
Gerry.

Both myself and the Muppet have been following Connacht teams for many years. And there comes a point in many a Galway hurling match and many a Mayo football match when thoughts turn immediately to next year and what can be salvaged from the disgrace unfolding on the pitch. And that is where Ireland is at the moment. 
Bond market 4-21 Ireland 0-5 as we approach half time. 

In the long run everything will stabilise but for the moment FF appear to have driven Ireland straight into an oncoming juggernaut. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: gerrykeegan on November 05, 2010, 10:40:40 AM
Following westmeath is no better. Last year I watched us concede 9 goals and 48 points to dublin over 2 games. I stayed till the end and hoped and prayed we could turn it around. In fact in parnell park people  openly laughed at me. Maybe thats where Ireland is now. The markets are certainly laughing at us.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Croí na hÉireann on November 05, 2010, 12:03:54 PM
Quote from: gerrykeegan on November 05, 2010, 10:40:40 AM
Following westmeath is no better. Last year I watched us concede 9 goals and 48 points to dublin over 2 games. I stayed till the end and hoped and prayed we could turn it around. In fact in parnell park people  openly laughed at me. Maybe thats where Ireland is now. The markets are certainly laughing at us.

Chin up Gerry, I have a feeling in my bones that 2011 is gonna be a hell of a lot better than the last 2 years (Westmeath related only), we've got a great draw in Leinster for a start...
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: gerrykeegan on November 05, 2010, 12:18:30 PM
Ah croi ever the optimist, this year will be our year , great draw, the boys are flying in training!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 05, 2010, 12:38:23 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on November 05, 2010, 08:04:27 AM
Quote from: seafoid on November 04, 2010, 11:17:19 AM
They'll be 8% by Friday.



What do you think would be the breaking point? If it's 7.5-8% come April would we be able to borrow?
No, it won't come to that - not when we have the 5% option from the EU bailout.  Apparently the 7.5% to 8% being signalled means that there wouldn't be any take up if we actually went to the market anyway.  The phrase junk bonds might be bandied about!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 05, 2010, 01:16:37 PM
Quote from: gerrykeegan on November 05, 2010, 10:06:19 AM
Mental note to myself, never go drinking with seafoid and the muppet. George Glee has   nothing on you two.

Right idea, wrong reason though.

(Although I admit I had to make a run for it after 6 hours drinking with Hoof Hearted.)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 05, 2010, 01:41:19 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on November 05, 2010, 12:38:23 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on November 05, 2010, 08:04:27 AM
Quote from: seafoid on November 04, 2010, 11:17:19 AM
They'll be 8% by Friday.



What do you think would be the breaking point? If it's 7.5-8% come April would we be able to borrow?
No, it won't come to that - not when we have the 5% option from the EU bailout.  Apparently the 7.5% to 8% being signalled means that there wouldn't be any take up if we actually went to the market anyway.  The phrase junk bonds might be bandied about!

I don't think we'd get 5% from an EU bailout, Bogball.  5% was back in April when Mayo were being touted as all-Ireland runners and Irish Life was trading at €3.  Ni bheidh  a leithéid arís ann.

  Wolfgang Munchau had a few articles about the likely rate a few months ago. The rate is more likely to be closer to 7% . If Portugal falls into the vortex Spain can't be far behind.  So anything could happen. 

Apparently yields are rising because bond wallahs are repricing to take account of the risk of restructuring of EU periphery bonds. The additional yield  they got to reflect sovereign risk isn't enough. That in itself is going to drive up the rates the bond markets charge for debt and would also be reflected in the cost of any bailout. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: ludermor on November 05, 2010, 01:46:56 PM
I cant wait until budget day when Brian Lenihan walks into the Dáil and unveils his latest plan - magic beans.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Croí na hÉireann on November 05, 2010, 01:48:43 PM
Quote from: gerrykeegan on November 05, 2010, 12:18:30 PM
Ah croi ever the optimist, this year will be our year , great draw, the boys are flying in training!

:D We always do well the year after we get a kicking Gerry, 2004 after 2003, 2006 after 2005, 2008 after 2007, so I reckon after the last 2 years we'll have a hell of a bite in us this year. A lot of lads will be feeling the pain of the last 2 years, the U21s from last year will be a year older & if key players remain injury free there's a Leinster there for the taking. So all that said, lump on Wexford putting us out in the first round  :P
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 05, 2010, 01:52:36 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 05, 2010, 01:41:19 PMNo, it won't come to that - not when we have the 5% option from the EU bailout.  Apparently the 7.5% to 8% being signalled means that there wouldn't be any take up if we actually went to the market anyway.  The phrase junk bonds might be bandied about!

I don't think we'd get 5% from an EU bailout, Bogball.  5% was back in April when Mayo were being touted as all-Ireland runners and Irish Life was trading at €3.  Ni bheidh  a leithéid arís ann.

  Wolfgang Munchau had a few articles about the likely rate a few months ago. The rate is more likely to be closer to 7% . If Portugal falls into the vortex Spain can't be far behind.  So anything could happen. 

Apparently yields are rising because bond wallahs are repricing to take account of the risk of restructuring of EU periphery bonds. The additional yield  they got to reflect sovereign risk isn't enough. That in itself is going to drive up the rates the bond markets charge for debt and would also be reflected in the cost of any bailout.
[/quote]
Right, makes sense.  There must be a chance then that the rates could be hitting double digits regardless of who we go to?  Can we really take on more debt at the level we need at that sort of price though?  Admittedly we probably have no other choice, but does it not vindicate the consensus that cutting the deficit and cutting it quick is the best option, regardless of how that will impact on growth?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 05, 2010, 01:53:48 PM
Quote from: ludermor on November 05, 2010, 01:46:56 PM
I cant wait until budget day when Brian Lenihan walks into the Dáil and unveils his latest plan - magic beans.
No, it's going to be a turnip economy.  We're going to get 20Bn from the EU bailout and buy a massive turnip with it.
A cunning, cunning plan!!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 05, 2010, 02:13:30 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on November 05, 2010, 01:52:36 PM

Right, makes sense.  There must be a chance then that the rates could be hitting double digits regardless of who we go to?  Can we really take on more debt at the level we need at that sort of price though?  Admittedly we probably have no other choice, but does it not vindicate the consensus that cutting the deficit and cutting it quick is the best option, regardless of how that will impact on growth?
[/quote]

Bogball
I don't think anyone knows what will happen over the next 6 months. There is a very sobering analysis of the forthcoming death of the Euro in the FT today.
Frontending makes economic sense but it is like amputation of a limb. Cowen said taxes are back at 2003 levels and spending has to go back to 2007 levels. The disaster that is FF freakonomics  is about to impose a economic trauma on the country which will hurt many people. 100,000 emigrants FFS. How many hurling and football teams will be affected?  There was no need to expand public spending in the way FF did since they won the last election. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 05, 2010, 04:18:43 PM
AIB down to 28 cent.
Irish Life 1.10
Bank of Ireland 42 cent

Compare the sad decline of the major financial institutions :

http://www.irishlifeandpermanent.ie/investor-relations/share-information/share-chart.aspx

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 05, 2010, 08:46:20 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 05, 2010, 04:18:43 PM
AIB down to 28 cent.
Irish Life 1.10
Bank of Ireland 42 cent

Compare the sad decline of the major financial institutions :

http://www.irishlifeandpermanent.ie/investor-relations/share-information/share-chart.aspx
it's difficult to know how there's any value attached to AIB at this stage?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 08, 2010, 09:35:35 AM
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2010/1108/1224282865400.html (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2010/1108/1224282865400.html)

What Morgan Kelly thinks about the situation
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 08, 2010, 10:06:37 AM
Hard to disagree with this :

"Ireland faced a painful choice between imposing a resolution on banks that were too big to save or becoming insolvent, and, for whatever reason, chose the latter. Sovereign nations get to make policy choices, and we are no longer a sovereign nation in any meaningful sense of that term.  From here on, for better or worse, we can only rely on the kindness of strangers".

I watched that Primetime programme about Ballina. The pain that people there and elsewhere around the country are going to have to endure because of the neoliberal folly of FF is heartbreaking.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 08, 2010, 11:33:39 AM
Bank shares taking another hammering today
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on November 08, 2010, 12:28:16 PM
I wonder how economical with the truth Lenihan will be with Mr Rehn?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 08, 2010, 02:08:24 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 08, 2010, 11:33:39 AM
Bank shares taking another hammering today

Even IL&P falling rapidly. The Bank Guarantee a decision taken to avoid nationalising the banks will end up having bankrupted us AND having nationalised the banks.

As someone on p.ie said 'I wouldn't put Lenihan in charge of an empty pram'.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 08, 2010, 02:25:35 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 05, 2010, 01:41:19 PMI don't think we'd get 5% from an EU bailout, Bogball.  5% was back in April when Mayo were being touted as all-Ireland runners and Irish Life was trading at €3.  Ni bheidh  a leithéid arís ann.

  Wolfgang Munchau had a few articles about the likely rate a few months ago. The rate is more likely to be closer to 7% . If Portugal falls into the vortex Spain can't be far behind.  So anything could happen. 
According to Morgan Kelly's article, the 5% would be punitive and would be enough to push us over the edge.

Good article, there's not much that can be disagreed with.  I never knew that the guarantee could have been rescinded by virtue of the fact that the banks hadn't given accurate disclosure of their financial positions - i don't imagine that would have gone down without a massive court battle, it might have ended up in the EU Courts anway, and sure, not doubting the impartiality of judges, but the 'right' decision would probably have been reached anyway.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on November 08, 2010, 02:44:48 PM
Would the fall in share value relate to many of the bondholders being paid already? Have we lost the 'smoking gun' now that Lenothan went ahead and paid them?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 08, 2010, 02:57:25 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on November 08, 2010, 02:44:48 PM
Would the fall in share value relate to many of the bondholders being paid already? Have we lost the 'smoking gun' now that Lenothan went ahead and paid them?
wouldn't have thought so.  AIB are insolvent and in 90% ownership of the state, what assets they have are domestic loans secured against domestic properties, and as Kelly points out, we really have no idea as to what the level of default there will be as the economy deteriorates.   All the banks are in similar positions, the worse the outlook for the economy, the higher the default rates, the higher theire realised losses, the less likely that anyone other than the state/ECB will lend them money to pay off other short term bonds that are coming due (presumably on a very regular basis).
Seafoid, what would the usual period for banks short term borrowing have been?  Or does anyone know what the various banks' funding requirements for the next year or so are?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 08, 2010, 03:23:35 PM
http://www.irishtimes.com/indepth/how_we_spent_the_boom/index.pdf (http://www.irishtimes.com/indepth/how_we_spent_the_boom/index.pdf)

Read them and weep
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 08, 2010, 03:43:09 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on November 08, 2010, 02:57:25 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on November 08, 2010, 02:44:48 PM
Would the fall in share value relate to many of the bondholders being paid already? Have we lost the 'smoking gun' now that Lenothan went ahead and paid them?
wouldn't have thought so.  AIB are insolvent and in 90% ownership of the state, what assets they have are domestic loans secured against domestic properties, and as Kelly points out, we really have no idea as to what the level of default there will be as the economy deteriorates.   All the banks are in similar positions, the worse the outlook for the economy, the higher the default rates, the higher theire realised losses, the less likely that anyone other than the state/ECB will lend them money to pay off other short term bonds that are coming due (presumably on a very regular basis).
Seafoid, what would the usual period for banks short term borrowing have been?  Or does anyone know what the various banks' funding requirements for the next year or so are?

Bogball
Irish Life and Permanent have some info on short term borrowing here
http://www.irishlifeandpermanent.ie/~/media/Files/I/Irish-Life-And-Permanent/Attachments/pdf/presentations/2010-ir-slides.pdf

Presumably short term just means less than 2 years duration or such. It will be interesting to see the IPM update later this month to see how the ECB proportion has changed- slide 28
The problem with the banks is that they all went beyond their deposits in the race for market share and ended up borrowing on the money markets when money was flúirseach and then got stuck when the money dried up after Lehman. My understanding is that they are all rolling over their short term borrowing with the European Central Bank since nobody in the private sector will lend anything to them now given what is going on in the bond market.
Any sort of a recovery would need the banks to be able to stand independent of the ECB again but that seems way off.

Irish Life& Permanent  is worth €240m today. The embedded value of Irish Life Group in 1990 was £458m before privatisation. 
 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 08, 2010, 04:13:53 PM
Quote from: Declan on November 08, 2010, 03:23:35 PM
http://www.irishtimes.com/indepth/how_we_spent_the_boom/index.pdf (http://www.irishtimes.com/indepth/how_we_spent_the_boom/index.pdf)

Read them and weep

Most of the boom seems to have been spent on making the boom boomier.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 08, 2010, 04:57:23 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 08, 2010, 03:43:09 PMPresumably short term just means less than 2 years duration or such. It will be interesting to see the IPM update later this month to see how the ECB proportion has changed- slide 28
The problem with the banks is that they all went beyond their deposits in the race for market share and ended up borrowing on the money markets when money was flúirseach and then got stuck when the money dried up after Lehman. My understanding is that they are all rolling over their short term borrowing with the European Central Bank since nobody in the private sector will lend anything to them now given what is going on in the bond market.
Any sort of a recovery would need the banks to be able to stand independent of the ECB again but that seems way off.

Irish Life& Permanent  is worth €240m today. The embedded value of Irish Life Group in 1990 was £458m before privatisation. 


If short term money is less than 2 years then the 55bn paid in september will have effectively have taken all the guaranteed short term money out of the hands of everyone but the ECB.  What about medium term, has that been rolled over yet I wonder.  That'd represent the monies taken out about 06 just as the boom was boomiest.  Will that be due in 2011?  Could we just not bother renewing our guarantee in Dec and let the owners of that debt take a hit?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 08, 2010, 05:35:54 PM
Bogball

It is a national emergency so I think the govt would be entitled to but the EU are calling the shots and I think they wouldn't go for that sort of thing. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 09, 2010, 11:24:25 PM
Finished The Big Short - Michael Lewis (http://www.amazon.com/Big-Short-Inside-Doomsday-Machine/dp/0393072231/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1289344544&sr=8-1)

Subpime, Asset Backed Securities, Credit Default Swaps, Collateral Debt Obligations all explained for the lay-man.

All about the collapse of the financial system starting with its roots in subprime mortgages.

Starts off with a few wise people 'shorting' the subprime sector (using newly created Mortgage bond CDSs). Then more and more start shorting until the impending doom is so obvious even Goldman Sachs and the rest try dumping their long positions. AIG went bankrupt because they insured most of these CDSs up to 2006 but even they were trying to unravel their positions in late 2007.

Our inspired Government took the ultimate long position as late as september 2008.  ::)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 10, 2010, 10:32:32 AM
Quote from: muppet on November 09, 2010, 11:24:25 PM
Finished The Big Short - Michael Lewis (http://www.amazon.com/Big-Short-Inside-Doomsday-Machine/dp/0393072231/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1289344544&sr=8-1)

Subpime, Asset Backed Securities, Credit Default Swaps, Collateral Debt Obligations all explained for the lay-man.

All about the collapse of the financial system starting with its roots in subprime mortgages.

Starts off with a few wise people 'shorting' the subprime sector (using newly created Mortgage bond CDSs). Then more and more start shorting until the impending doom is so obvious even Goldman Sachs and the rest try dumping their long positions. AIG went bankrupt because they insured most of these CDSs up to 2006 but even they were trying to unravel their positions in late 2007.

Our inspired Government took the ultimate long position as late as september 2008.  ::)

Muppet

I think it goes beyond subprime. That was the catalyst but if it wasn't that something else would have cause the collapse. If you want one word it is greed but what were the parameters that allowed this to happen? 

For me the problem is the financialisation of the economy. It is the structural flaws in the system itself.  I think it is explained well here

http://www.monthlyreview.org/101001foster.php
 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 10, 2010, 11:25:37 AM
Post over at irish economy which seems logical 

the game isn't up yet. Though only just. Basically buyers have called for an extended timeout until they know whats really happening here. We have 6 months or so of cash (end July is what is being suggested at a push), but we also have the NPRF if we really needed to. So basically we have that window to change the markets mind.
Getting the budget and fiscal adjustment plan out of the way is phase 1, then sorting out the political uncertainty which has become more obvious this month is next, so an early 2011 (jan/feb max) election is the next phase. Assuming that goes to plan, with a clear FG leadership role (however the govt is formed), March could be spent roadshowing (alongside EU/ECB cheerleading) to investors with a very clear portrait of Ireland in place - 4yrs of clear fiscal policy, 5 yrs of clear political leadership and a strong mandate, NAMA fully in place, and (hopefully) the banks fully recapitalised at that point. Thats a good story to sell into a big syndicated deal at end March 2011. That, i imagine, is what the NTMA is currently setting itself up for hopefully.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 10, 2010, 01:11:24 PM
"Loan losses at Irish lenders, including foreign-owned banks, come to no less than €85 billion, Central Bank governor Patrick Honohan said today."

Jesus.  That is around €17,000 per head.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 10, 2010, 03:21:48 PM
It looks like speculators are now targeting the Euro. Some bare knuckle rides ahead.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 10, 2010, 06:11:50 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 10, 2010, 01:11:24 PM
"Loan losses at Irish lenders, including foreign-owned banks, come to no less than €85 billion, Central Bank governor Patrick Honohan said today."

Jesus.  That is around €17,000 per head.

Here is why no one will lend to us:

Lenihan said in late 2008 it would cost €10 Billion.
In September 2010 he said it would be €50 Billion.
Now we are hearing €85 Billion. No one has a clue what the final figure will be.

Our problem is that the crisis is not over yet. The retail banks (never mind the economy) will be massacred after a €6 Billion budget (November's figure it was €3-4 Billion in September) and will need either more funding (borrowing) or will have to be shut down.

That €17,000 per person should read around €45,000 per worker (the 1,900,000 who still have jobs).
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 11, 2010, 10:59:26 AM
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5b1650c2-ecfd-11df-9912-00144feab49a.html#axzz14vAekjiu

"The dramatic sell-off in Irish bonds was driven by a fire sale of positions by market participants who were unable to meet collateral requirements enforced by LCH.Clearnet – one of Europe's biggest clearing houses – on Wednesday morning.
Ireland's banks were faced with an estimated $1bn cash-call from LCH.Clearnet as a result of its decision to require a deposit of 15 per cent against all Irish bond positions as an indemnity against default.  The margin will be cleared on Thursday and collected on Friday, a memo sent to LCH.Clearnet members said. Bank of Ireland alone must stump up as much as €250m ($344bn), the Financial Times has learnt. The bank is understood to be meeting the call by dipping into its cash reserves, rather than through selling down its €1.7bn holding of bonds. In order to avoid the call, many other banks and traders are dumping their bond positions, however."

in addition, there are loads of speculators who are happy to bring down the country if they can make enough money from it.   Bastards.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 11, 2010, 11:48:55 AM
Right lads it's official Christmas has been cancelled
(http://i26.photobucket.com/albums/c135/theknitter/killingsanta.jpg)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 11, 2010, 12:28:09 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 11, 2010, 10:59:26 AMin addition, there are loads of speculators who are happy to bring down the country if they can make enough money from it.   b**tards.
But sure they can speculate all they want, since we don't actually need any money for months (which is a lifetime away in these guys' outlook) does it matter.  They're just playing the market on something they've found a way to make profit on.  They'll have moved on in a few weeks time and maybe our yields will stabilise well below current levels?  I'd say the news about the increased margin requirements at least gives a solid reason for the yields spiking the other day and as soon as that has been absorbed by the market it should lead to further stabilisation - also, does it not mean that there's less likelhood that people will be buying them for short term profits?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on November 11, 2010, 12:49:33 PM
QuoteThat €17,000 per person should read around €45,000 per worker (the 1,900,000 who still have jobs).

stick that on the mortgage please.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: gerrykeegan on November 11, 2010, 12:57:40 PM
Its not even that much, a fiver a day from everyone over the next 10 years and the 17k is paid off with a bit to spare to add another lane to the m50
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 11, 2010, 01:02:54 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on November 11, 2010, 12:28:09 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 11, 2010, 10:59:26 AMin addition, there are loads of speculators who are happy to bring down the country if they can make enough money from it.   b**tards.
But sure they can speculate all they want, since we don't actually need any money for months (which is a lifetime away in these guys' outlook) does it matter.  They're just playing the market on something they've found a way to make profit on.  They'll have moved on in a few weeks time and maybe our yields will stabilise well below current levels?  I'd say the news about the increased margin requirements at least gives a solid reason for the yields spiking the other day and as soon as that has been absorbed by the market it should lead to further stabilisation - also, does it not mean that there's less likelhood that people will be buying them for short term profits?

Hopefully, Bogball
Apparently Irish banks have to put up extra cash if they want to repo the bonds  and they don't have much cash. The whole thing is such a mess. I heard on RTE that the ECB is providing 110bn in funding for the Irish banks (since the private sector won't touch them). If government debt is trading at 8-9% and mortgages are based on  1% it seems like it will be a long time before the banks recover to anything like full health. They will presumably be dependent on the ECB for the next age.
I'd say a passed budget and a new government would help the current crisis  situation but the banks are another kettle of fish. 


Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 11, 2010, 01:02:59 PM
Quote from: gerrykeegan on November 11, 2010, 12:57:40 PM
Its not even that much, a fiver a day from everyone over the next 10 years and the 17k is paid off with a bit to spare to add another lane to the m50
exactly, and look at the health benefits of forgoing that pint ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: gerrykeegan on November 11, 2010, 01:05:29 PM
I'll make my own sandwich once a week , there is no way I'm going to give up the pint
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Capt Pat on November 11, 2010, 01:17:02 PM
"Mary Harney kills Santa Claus and buries the body in foundations of new HSE HQ"

I win the caption competition.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Main Street on November 11, 2010, 02:11:41 PM
That's a poor choice of shovel for digging a hole.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Kerry Mike on November 11, 2010, 02:42:16 PM
FFS 9.25% today for the bonds . But dont worry its all under control, The Brian's say so.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Kerry Mike on November 11, 2010, 02:47:31 PM
Irish economy basically sound - The Greek Prime Minister, George Papandreou has said today, thats a ringing endorsement from someone who has ridden over 110 Billion euro of Debt in his own Country

What fecking planet are they living on.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 11, 2010, 04:24:05 PM
Quote from: Kerry Mike on November 11, 2010, 02:42:16 PM
FFS 9.25% today for the bonds . But dont worry its all under control, The Brian's say so.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GIGB10YR:IND

Bloomberg has them under 9%.

It seems the dealers in London doing the selling think the Government won't get a budget through. I can't see FG voting against it.  Surely they will abstain and have FF go down in history as the ones who voted for the budget.   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 11, 2010, 04:36:41 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 11, 2010, 04:24:05 PM
Quote from: Kerry Mike on November 11, 2010, 02:42:16 PM
FFS 9.25% today for the bonds . But dont worry its all under control, The Brian's say so.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GIGB10YR:IND

Bloomberg has them under 9%.

It seems the dealers in London doing the selling think the Government won't get a budget through. I can't see FG voting against it.  Surely they will abstain and have FF go down in history as the ones who voted for the budget.   
I said it last week and I stick by it, it'd make eminently more sense imo to call an election now, pre-budget and let the parties tell us their plans for reducing the deficit and then let us vote on it.  I think it would give the whole process a mandate that people couldn't shirk from, a sort of Londoners in the blitz sort of mentality.  It's of little consequence imo if we have a sham budget now that will lead to more moaning and whinging and could be torn up come the general election in April or May (just when we are running out of money by the way) or a budget in Jan/Feb that gives us the chance to prove to the markets that the people are behind the austerity process.
I really hope that Jackie Healy Rae and Lowry stick to their promises that they will not support a budget that sees cuts for pensioners, because there surely will be cuts for pensioners. 

I heard Mattie McGrath on the radio this morning, he's independent FF, what the f**k is that??  Anyway, he is surely a bigger gombeen than JHR, he's virtually indecipherable and from the words I did get, that's maybe for the best.  What I can't understand is how a man like that could possibly rise to the top of his local constituency organisation?  I presume that this is in part because local meetings can have a few as 3 or 4 people at them and hence regular attendance can see you move up the ranking pretty quickly, but is there another reason, did he hurl for tipp or something?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 11, 2010, 05:13:32 PM
For those who don't like bad new don't read any further.

The rest who might like to know what reality is:

(http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?h=200&w=280&range=1y&type=gp_line&cfg=BQuoteComp_10.xml&ticks=GIGB10YR%3AIND&img=png)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: The Subbie on November 11, 2010, 09:18:39 PM
There will be even more digging to be done in the next day or two, have just heard that MacNamaras have gone wallop, not out yet in the wider sense but it will come out, the construction co and a few other affiliated co's are going into receivership/ liquidation, I don't have a link as it's not been reported anywhere yet, but my source is immpeccable, I used to work for them and am still on contact with a few senior management types.
The sites they are currently working on will close immediately till the examiners see what is worth finishing,Bernard Mc Namara himself would be proper old school tribal Ff, so to hear this really shows how facked we are. Wonder will Bernard have the ailsbury road pad repossessed now? Or will he like the rest of the great & the good get a handy number with Nama ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: armaghniac on November 11, 2010, 10:23:33 PM
Some chat on Irisheconomy.ie about talks with the IMF. Nobody is quite sure what is going on.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 12, 2010, 08:28:37 AM
Quote from: Bogball XV on November 11, 2010, 04:36:41 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 11, 2010, 04:24:05 PM
Quote from: Kerry Mike on November 11, 2010, 02:42:16 PM
FFS 9.25% today for the bonds . But dont worry its all under control, The Brian's say so.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GIGB10YR:IND

Bloomberg has them under 9%.

It seems the dealers in London doing the selling think the Government won't get a budget through. I can't see FG voting against it.  Surely they will abstain and have FF go down in history as the ones who voted for the budget.   
I said it last week and I stick by it, it'd make eminently more sense imo to call an election now, pre-budget and let the parties tell us their plans for reducing the deficit and then let us vote on it.  I think it would give the whole process a mandate that people couldn't shirk from, a sort of Londoners in the blitz sort of mentality.  It's of little consequence imo if we have a sham budget now that will lead to more moaning and whinging and could be torn up come the general election in April or May (just when we are running out of money by the way) or a budget in Jan/Feb that gives us the chance to prove to the markets that the people are behind the austerity process.
I really hope that Jackie Healy Rae and Lowry stick to their promises that they will not support a budget that sees cuts for pensioners, because there surely will be cuts for pensioners. 

I heard Mattie McGrath on the radio this morning, he's independent FF, what the f**k is that??  Anyway, he is surely a bigger gombeen than JHR, he's virtually indecipherable and from the words I did get, that's maybe for the best.  What I can't understand is how a man like that could possibly rise to the top of his local constituency organisation?  I presume that this is in part because local meetings can have a few as 3 or 4 people at them and hence regular attendance can see you move up the ranking pretty quickly, but is there another reason, did he hurl for tipp or something?

I think it would be better to get the budget through and then call an election straight after. Having the election now would send out the wrong signal to the chavs in London who are calling the shots on the bonds and would could drive the yields beyond the point of no return.  It's easy for JHR to talk about pensions. It's not his money.  Whoever it is is elected will have to go with the plan. There are no other choices.

Regarding Mattie whatshisname this is just typical of the pool from which Irish politicians are sourced. It's all about pull. Charlie McCreevy's agent succeeded him as TD in Kildare. Nothing to do with ability. All about who you know and loyalty to the party.   

there are no economists or bankers or auditors in the Dáil as far as I know. It's mostly teachers and solicitors with a few farmers.

So the political class is overwhelmed by this crisis  where pull is meaningless and decisions have to be made fast based on insight that most of them don't have.

 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 12, 2010, 05:35:10 PM
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/09/27/353176/europes-spv-really-is-not-saving-anything/ (http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/09/27/353176/europes-spv-really-is-not-saving-anything/)

Given the high costs associated with requesting EFSF funds, and the potentially limited amounts it might offer, Europe's best chance is that no one — Ireland or otherwise — is ever actually forced to tap it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Rossfan on November 12, 2010, 07:20:08 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 12, 2010, 08:28:37 AM
   

there are no economists or bankers or auditors in the Dáil as far as I know. 

Not like Anglo - Irish, AIB, Bank of Ireland , Quinns, McNamaras, Pierse etc etc .
Some fcukin use Bankers, Economists, Audtors are to anyone  :D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 12, 2010, 08:21:04 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on November 12, 2010, 07:20:08 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 12, 2010, 08:28:37 AM
   

there are no economists or bankers or auditors in the Dáil as far as I know. 

Not like Anglo - Irish, AIB, Bank of Ireland , Quinns, McNamaras, Pierse etc etc .
Some fcukin use Bankers, Economists, Audtors are to anyone  :D

Good point. The auditors were hopelessly compromised. There should be heads rolling in the accountancy field as well but the snouts are still in the trough. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 12, 2010, 09:14:49 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 12, 2010, 08:21:04 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on November 12, 2010, 07:20:08 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 12, 2010, 08:28:37 AM
   

there are no economists or bankers or auditors in the Dáil as far as I know. 

Not like Anglo - Irish, AIB, Bank of Ireland , Quinns, McNamaras, Pierse etc etc .
Some fcukin use Bankers, Economists, Audtors are to anyone  :D

Good point. The auditors were hopelessly compromised. There should be heads rolling in the accountancy field as well but the snouts are still in the trough.
you haven't seen the pwc thread yet??
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 12, 2010, 09:21:59 PM
I watching Harney on the News, paint last week, eggs and cheese this week.

My two year old pointed at her and said 'monkey'.

I thought he will do good.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 12, 2010, 09:46:06 PM
Muppet

Will you be selling printed and bound editions of the thread for Christmas? 
A wonderful heirloom for future generations. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 13, 2010, 03:25:48 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 12, 2010, 09:46:06 PM
Muppet

Will you be selling printed and bound editions of the thread for Christmas? 
A wonderful heirloom for future generations.

Great idea. I'll print it on the back of the abandoned Kilkenny 'drive for 5' posters. Should be a few of them about. Would a €9.99 price work?

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 13, 2010, 04:52:24 PM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11750676 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11750676)

BBC reporting that we are currently in talks for funds from the EFSF. If that is true we are asking to be bailed out.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: armaghniac on November 13, 2010, 05:35:14 PM
Well it is prudent to see what the story is, even if it doesn't prove necessary to use it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on November 13, 2010, 05:42:25 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on November 05, 2010, 08:46:20 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 05, 2010, 04:18:43 PM
AIB down to 28 cent.  
Irish Life 1.10
Bank of Ireland 42 cent

Compare the sad decline of the major financial institutions :

http://www.irishlifeandpermanent.ie/investor-relations/share-information/share-chart.aspx
it's difficult to know how there's any value attached to AIB at this stage?

I bought them @ €23.50'ish they be worth more to me to wipe my arse with than buying bogroll now  :'(
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 13, 2010, 06:10:30 PM
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cdef84ce-ef41-11df-8bbb-00144feab49a.html#axzz15BelUCm4 (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cdef84ce-ef41-11df-8bbb-00144feab49a.html#axzz15BelUCm4)

FT reporting that EU ministers meeting to discuss whether we need aid before the markets open on monday.

Out of our grubby hands now by the sounds of it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 13, 2010, 08:33:59 PM
This article by highly respected PIMCO bondwalla Mohamed El Erian is very interesting. His point is that EU policy to date isn't enough.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/11ad1ab8-ee49-11df-8b90-00144feab49a.html#axzz15CAmwtii

"So far, Europe's response has consisted of two elements: peripheral countries (and particularly Greece and Ireland) embarking on ambitious austerity programmes; and, simultaneously, these countries receiving external funding through access to the ECB's balance sheet and, in the case of Greece, loans from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. But the lesson of numerous crises in emerging economies show that this approach simply kicks the can down the road. It does not deal with the basic problems: the overhang of debt (an acute problem for Greece and Ireland in particular) and poor competitiveness. "

Austerity alone isn't enough. And this crisis now is about more than Ireland. So I think the EU will get the finger out. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on November 13, 2010, 11:04:49 PM
BBC news was reporting earlier that they had recieved info saying Ireland in talks re E.U. bailout.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 15, 2010, 11:00:33 AM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1115/ntma-business.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1115/ntma-business.html)

RTE now finally running with the story calling it 'high level' talks. Funny how our media are behind international media on reporting about our government.

The issue now seems to be we are funded into the middle of next year (we are broke by June depending on how you like your 50% filled glass). However the banks that we guaranteed need loads more money or face collapse. If we give them the money we are no longer funded into the middle of next year and might be broke on Bloomberg's 60 day timeline or even less.

Lenihan is in the Indo this morning claiming he is seeking a bailout for the banks but not the State. Seeing as the State owns most of, and guarantees all of, the banks this seems like spin just for the sake of it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 15, 2010, 11:04:58 AM
The banks would appear to be the problem. The State can't afford any more losses.

But it's not all doom and gloom lads. There are still rashers and sausages and the Mayo lads will go through the rituals of spring as soon as the daffodils and snowdrops appear agus mar sin de. And the snowdrops will reappear but Sam probably won't in Mayo.   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 15, 2010, 12:22:28 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 15, 2010, 11:04:58 AM
The banks would appear to be the problem. The State can't afford any more losses.

But it's not all doom and gloom lads. There are still rashers and sausages and the Mayo lads will go through the rituals of spring as soon as the daffodils and snowdrops appear agus mar sin de. And the snowdrops will reappear but Sam probably won't in Mayo.   
I think that's just another attempt by FF to shift the blame from their total mismanagement of the economy onto the nasty evil bankers.  The banks are obviously an issue, but the deficit is a much bigger issue imo.  The bank losses will be dependent to a large extent on how the deficit is managed. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 15, 2010, 12:53:15 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on November 15, 2010, 12:22:28 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 15, 2010, 11:04:58 AM
The banks would appear to be the problem. The State can't afford any more losses.

But it's not all doom and gloom lads. There are still rashers and sausages and the Mayo lads will go through the rituals of spring as soon as the daffodils and snowdrops appear agus mar sin de. And the snowdrops will reappear but Sam probably won't in Mayo.   
I think that's just another attempt by FF to shift the blame from their total mismanagement of the economy onto the nasty evil bankers.  The banks are obviously an issue, but the deficit is a much bigger issue imo.  The bank losses will be dependent to a large extent on how the deficit is managed.

Surely the 6bn in cuts and the 15bn total slash plan shows that there is going to be action on the deficit. But yields haven't moved.
This was in the Sunday Tribune yesterday

10 reasons the markets don't believe us

1. Angela Merkel is seeking to save German and French taxpayers from paying for Greek, Irish and Portuguese debt.
2. The banks are running rings around the government – even still.

3. The total cost of bailing out the banks – €50bn and rising – is not yet certain.

4. The government is threatening to do more damage to the economy with its handling of the crisis.


5. Mishandling means that more than €15bn will be needed in future budgets.

6. Cutting our budget deficit to 3% of GDP by 2014 is impossible.


7. Stating that we have opted out of
bond markets is untrue – we have
been kicked out.


8. Public-service reform has not occurred and the cost continues to be enormous.
9. The mortgage default situation as was outlined last week is likely to increase over the next four years.

10. Trust has been eroded – those who presided over the crisis cannot be the solution.
http://www.tribune.ie/news/article/2010/nov/14/what-would-happen-if-lenihan-calls-for-the-cash/

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 15, 2010, 01:04:13 PM
Bogball- something else. The banks are totally dependent on the Euro central Bank for funding since the markets are effectively closed to them with Irish bonds at 8% and corporate bonds if you could sell them at a higher rate. I think the ECB has €110 bn in bank assets or something like that. all bonds being rolled over are being taken up by the ECB. 

I have a report from NCB from January that says Irish Life and P should rise to €6 from €3 by year end. Today it is less than €1 - all due to this funding issue I think. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 15, 2010, 01:17:44 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 15, 2010, 12:53:15 PMSurely the 6bn in cuts and the 15bn total slash plan shows that there is going to be action on the deficit.
Firstly, how can anything that the Irish govt say be believed, it's extremely embarrassing really.  Time after time we hear Lenno out revising his earlier forecasts and apart form projected growth figures the revision is always upwards.  How can he/we be trusted?  They really seem to have bought into their wee theory about being able to talk up and down the economy, they have to realise that trite rubbish about turning corners (yes, he said that in september didn't he) and the worst being over are seen as precisely that by investors, and that the more lies you tell, the lower your credibility.

Secondly and more importantly, tackling the deficit whilst it has to be done is going to have a huge impact on future growth and future bank losses, overseas analysts can see that you can't just take that amount of money out of an economy the size of ours and expect things to coast along and work themselves out in 4 years time.  We're talking about reducing our expenditure by 40% over the next 4 years and then keeping that new expenditure level for the forseeable future.  The implications for growth can only be negative, that means that as the article points out, we've most likely underestimated again.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 15, 2010, 02:03:30 PM
At this stage there is no choice. The cuts have to happen.
But the country does need action to stop the debt deflation spiral. I think that is where the EU should come in.
Greece is already in the treatment room and austerity isn't working there either.

FF have to go and then be treated with garlic and a crucifix.   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 15, 2010, 03:00:48 PM
I know the cuts have to happen seafoid and for the time being at least they have to stick to the 4 year plan.  But that doesn't make irish bonds any more palatable for investors, and as for corporate bonds - honestly, who in their right mind would invest in AIB at present? 

Have you seen this article?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/savings/8133937/How-safe-is-your-money-in-an-Irish-bank.html

I wouldn't expect much else from The Telegraph.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: ludermor on November 15, 2010, 03:04:32 PM
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/thomas-molloy-what-we-face-if-the-imf-takes-over-the-country-2420140.html



By Thomas Molloy

Monday November 15 2010

WHAT will it actually mean for us if the country is forced to call in the International Monetary Fund (IMF)?

Central Bank governor Patrick Honohan took the markets by surprise last week by musing openly about this once taboo question. His conclusion was that it would make little difference and would not act as a "panacea" for our problems.

Speaking at the International Financial Services Summit 2010 in Dublin, the governor added that any IMF policies would be "very much" like the Government's present policies.

And the fund was unlikely to make any changes to the 12.5pc corporation tax rate.

It was a surprising intervention, and the Department of Finance was forced to deny the next day that the Central Bank was preparing for a default.

Since then, we have seen persistent reports that the Government is imminently about to call in the IMF in some shape or form.

What would such a decision mean and was Mr Honohan right to say that it would make little difference?

We don't have to look far within Europe to get a good idea of what it could mean for Ireland if the IMF arrives in Dublin. Greece, Iceland, Latvia and Hungary have all had to call in the IMF over the past two years -- with varying degrees of success and with varying levels of suffering among the population.

No two countries are the same. No matter how bad the Greek economy is, it simply cannot be compared with Iceland -- where the tiny economy was completely overwhelmed by a banking crisis unprecedented in modern times.

Some like to argue that Iceland is recovering quickly from the crisis but the truth is the tiny population of the volcanic island is still struggling with huge social problems and political unrest, which make it hard to swallow the IMF's bitter prescriptions.

At the other end of the scale, and somewhat closer to the Irish economy, Latvia and Hungary have taken their medicine and appear not to be doing too badly since the IMF took control. In fact, both appear to have weathered the worst of the crisis and to be poised to return to growth after two gruelling years of cuts. "I can't say the IMF made a huge difference from former times," says Liva Melbirde, a financial reporter with Latvian business daily 'Dienas Bizness' -- echoing Mr Honohan's comments.

"I think, on balance, it's been good for Latvia. At the time, we didn't have an option; we were spending too much money and we were not in control."

Few in Latvia blame the IMF for the inevitable suffering that has followed the cuts and most hold the government to account, she adds.

Turnaround

Part of Melbride's sanguine attitude stems from the fact that Latvia's gross domestic product is expected to grow 3pc next year. If this happens, it would mark a remarkable turnaround for the country, which saw an 18pc slump last year. Unemployment is now around 15pc from a peak of 17.3pc in March.

But that turnaround has come at great cost. The centre of Riga is full of beggars and empty shops -- much like Dublin these days. "No one is unaware of the fact that there are still too many people suffering," World Bank President Robert Zoellick admitted during a visit to the Baltic country in August.

Some idea of the level of pain can be seen by the fact that Zoellick was speaking after a meeting with Latvians working on a special jobs programme that pays 100 lati (€130) a month for clearing hogweed from fields.

"Those gentlemen are doing pretty tough work for 100 lati a month and I thought it was an excellent sign about the will of people in Latvia to work to try to earn a living for their families," he said.

Latvia's situation is instructive for Ireland because the currency is linked to the euro and the government, which wants to join the single currency in two years' time, took the decision not to devalue. Instead, Latvians have had to cut salaries and costs to bring spending under control -- just as we here in Ireland will in the years ahead.

While the IMF's intervention in Latvia could be described as immensely painful but perhaps successful because it helped the government and the population there to do what it wanted to do anyway, the same cannot be said of Iceland and Greece where a large part of the population is opposed to reforms.

In Greece, there seems to be little shame for the bombs that are landing in the post box of European Union leaders such as German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who helped put together a package of loans in May to bail out the country.

"Our lives in Greece virtually changed overnight, so it should be no surprise that we see such actions taking place," 34-year-old teacher Christina Angreou told Bloomberg this month. "Not that I'm for such actions, but it's a protest."

A poll released last month shows that two-thirds of Greeks think the country could have avoided asking for funds, up from 42pc in April.

The country's public sector union plans to strike later this month to protest against austerity policies and job cuts, which have pushed unemployment to 12pc -- high by Greek levels but still lower than Ireland's rate.

While the Greeks are protesting more than the Latvians, they are suffering less; the IMF has so far resisted imposing the sort of fiscal discipline on Greece as it has on Latvia.

But Greece, which has been a relatively wealthy country for decades and which has a strong tradition of protest, does not closely resemble Ireland despite a common currency.

It seems much more likely that life under the IMF in this country would feel closer to the Latvian or Hungarian experiences -- Latvia was not known as the Baltic Tiger for nothing. "If it wasn't for the IMF and the EU, Latvia would now be completely bankrupt," Jens Fischer, a Riga-based political and economic analyst, said earlier this year. "But it's not like Greece -- the people have seen worse times during the Soviet era and don't complain.

"There is also a big grey economy which remains unseen but keeps many people ticking over just as the grey economy here is keeping hunger at bay in many families."

The reluctance to complain -- also seen here in Ireland -- could be the key to understanding what the IMF will do.

The IMF has acted differently in each European country where it has a major say on government policy but its actions have largely mirrored each government's instincts. As Mr Honohan said last week, the IMF seems to work best when it helps governments to do what they already want to do rather than impose a new set of policies and beliefs.

Judging by the Irish Government and the mainstream opposition's eagerness to "do the right thing" in recent months it seems likely that any IMF intervention would be of the short-sharp-shock variety rather than the bailouts seen in Greece and Iceland.

That could translate as a few years of pain in return for a relatively quick return to economic growth. The problem is that the jury is out on whether such a remedy will work. While Latvia and Hungary are poised for growth, their fortunes, like ours, are intimately tied to the fortunes of the world economy.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 15, 2010, 03:19:31 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on November 15, 2010, 03:00:48 PM
I know the cuts have to happen seafoid and for the time being at least they have to stick to the 4 year plan.  But that doesn't make irish bonds any more palatable for investors, and as for corporate bonds - honestly, who in their right mind would invest in AIB at present? 

Have you seen this article?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/savings/8133937/How-safe-is-your-money-in-an-Irish-bank.html

I wouldn't expect much else from The Telegraph.

Bogball

The Torygraph is a rag. They sacked all their cricket correspondents and now put PA copy down under a made up name.  Interesting to see the rightwing Brit press putting the boot in. RBS and HBOS are heavily exposed to Ireland so the government has to help out regardless of what the commuters on the 19.27 to Tunbridge Wells say. 

You are right about AIB. Dependent on cheap money from the ECB - when it is ever going to be able to stand on its own 2 feet again?  It is such a pity for what used to be a fine company. 
   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: mannix on November 15, 2010, 03:41:40 PM
When I think back to some of the things that builders and estate agents said to me 4 or 5 years ago I get weak at the knees, its no wonder Ireland will be run by Germany soon and to be honest lad and lasses it would be no harm since we do not have the brains to run ourselves, honestly, MICHAEL O LEARY, WILL YOU FOR THE LOVE OF GOD PLEASE TAKE OVER LENIHANS JOB OR AT LEAST ADVISE HIM AND HIS PARTY.
Legions of spongers living in free housing,getting free medical cover, free schooling and free cash every week is another massive problem, its one thing for somebody needing it but we have too many just happy to leach of the taxpayer, it must be stopped, make the men on the dole do something for that dole, sweep the street or clean the plastic bags and rubbish of the hedges.And the girls with kids and no sign of a father should get reduced money until they name him, lack of personal responsibility is our undoing.
Talked to a fella whose brother has 8 kids with the wife and has never had a job, how can this be right?Another bastard in a munster city has 4 kids and had 3000 euro a month, he was renting a mansion and going to watch celtic, left a 1200 euro gas bill behind and a wrecked the house only for a councillor to move them into another estate house in the middle of the night.
Ireland needs to cop itself on in a big way.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on November 15, 2010, 03:57:09 PM
Quote from: mannix on November 15, 2010, 03:41:40 PM
When I think back to some of the things that builders and estate agents said to me 4 or 5 years ago I get weak at the knees, its no wonder Ireland will be run by Germany soon and to be honest lad and lasses it would be no harm since we do not have the brains to run ourselves, honestly, MICHAEL O LEARY, WILL YOU FOR THE LOVE OF GOD PLEASE TAKE OVER LENIHANS JOB OR AT LEAST ADVISE HIM AND HIS PARTY.

Be carefull what you wish for. Michael O'Leary is only interested in Michael O'Leary. These cries for a second coming are frightening especially when people want to see that second coming in the form of Michael O'Leary. For the love of God have a think about it for a second. I'd rather see Bob Geldoff as Minister for Finance.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 15, 2010, 06:48:14 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on November 15, 2010, 03:57:09 PM
Quote from: mannix on November 15, 2010, 03:41:40 PM
When I think back to some of the things that builders and estate agents said to me 4 or 5 years ago I get weak at the knees, its no wonder Ireland will be run by Germany soon and to be honest lad and lasses it would be no harm since we do not have the brains to run ourselves, honestly, MICHAEL O LEARY, WILL YOU FOR THE LOVE OF GOD PLEASE TAKE OVER LENIHANS JOB OR AT LEAST ADVISE HIM AND HIS PARTY.

Be carefull what you wish for. Michael O'Leary is only interested in Michael O'Leary. These cries for a second coming are frightening especially when people want to see that second coming in the form of Michael O'Leary. For the love of God have a think about it for a second. I'd rather see Bob Geldoff as Minister for Finance.

Mannix, extreme capitalism killed this country and you want to ask the most extreme capitalist for advice?

Begging for a strong thug of a leader might seem attractive when you are in a hole, but history tells us the hole can get an awful lot bigger if you go down that road.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Rossfan on November 15, 2010, 06:55:15 PM
Remember Germany got a strong leader in 1933  :'(
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: trileacman on November 15, 2010, 08:13:03 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 15, 2010, 03:19:31 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on November 15, 2010, 03:00:48 PM
I know the cuts have to happen seafoid and for the time being at least they have to stick to the 4 year plan.  But that doesn't make irish bonds any more palatable for investors, and as for corporate bonds - honestly, who in their right mind would invest in AIB at present? 

Have you seen this article?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/savings/8133937/How-safe-is-your-money-in-an-Irish-bank.html

I wouldn't expect much else from The Telegraph.

Bogball

The Torygraph is a rag. They sacked all their cricket correspondents and now put PA copy down under a made up name.  Interesting to see the rightwing Brit press putting the boot in. RBS and HBOS are heavily exposed to Ireland so the government has to help out regardless of what the commuters on the 19.27 to Tunbridge Wells say. 

You are right about AIB. Dependent on cheap money from the ECB - when it is ever going to be able to stand on its own 2 feet again? It is such a pity for what used to be a fine company.

Whatever about your other points, this is a load of shite. A crowd of hoors in my experience, who would have done their mothers for a cheap buck. And not just in recent times, my beef with them goes back to the 80's. Glad to see the back of them.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 15, 2010, 10:08:07 PM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2010/11/will_the_ecb_pull_the_plug_on.html (http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2010/11/will_the_ecb_pull_the_plug_on.html)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Lecale2 on November 16, 2010, 08:22:23 AM
I still find it surprising how many people in the south just don't realise how bad things are.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 16, 2010, 08:35:59 AM
I think people are going to figure it out, Lecale. FF have destroyed the economy.   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: gerrykeegan on November 16, 2010, 08:37:03 AM
I think if I was a public servant I would be asking my union to at least ballot members on taking pain now and not when the IMF/EU conditions are imposed.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on November 16, 2010, 08:52:08 AM
Quote from: gerrykeegan on November 16, 2010, 08:37:03 AM
I think if I was a public servant I would be asking my union to at least ballot members on taking pain now and not when the IMF/EU conditions are imposed.

When the IMF come in that will be there starting point. Anything that came before won't matter.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on November 16, 2010, 08:56:47 AM
Quote from: seafoid on November 16, 2010, 08:35:59 AM
I think people are going to figure it out, Lecale. FF have destroyed the economy.

Ursla Haligan really stuck it to them yesterday. She said FF the Republican Party will be known in history as the people who took Irelands hard won freedom and handed it over.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Capt Pat on November 16, 2010, 09:00:17 AM
Quote from: Rossfan on November 15, 2010, 06:55:15 PM
Remember Germany got a strong leader in 1933  :'(

At least he might build a few good motorways and get rid of all the Kerry people.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Kerry Mike on November 16, 2010, 09:37:48 AM
Quoteand get rid of all the Kerry people.

As in move us all back to Kerry. Happy days.  As John B Keane said, "every day spent outside the Kingdom is a day wasted"
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 16, 2010, 09:53:11 AM
Quote from: Lecale2 on November 16, 2010, 08:22:23 AM
I still find it surprising how many people in the south just don't realise how bad things are.
I find it surprising how many people in the north don't realise who close behind us they are.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: delboy on November 16, 2010, 12:34:19 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on November 16, 2010, 09:53:11 AM
Quote from: Lecale2 on November 16, 2010, 08:22:23 AM
I still find it surprising how many people in the south just don't realise how bad things are.
I find it surprising how many people in the north don't realise who close behind us they are.

We're tied into the UK as a whole (thank god), time will tell but certainly the bond markets seem much happier that the UK isn't going to default (running around the 4 % mark on 10 year bonds).
That the UK is going to go cap in hand like ireland is largely wishful thinking on your part.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 16, 2010, 02:08:40 PM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-11/rbs-falls-on-68-billion-of-ireland-loans-and-sovereign-debt-analyst-says.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-11/rbs-falls-on-68-billion-of-ireland-loans-and-sovereign-debt-analyst-says.html)

mmmm - RBS into us for nearly 70 billion!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 16, 2010, 02:09:23 PM
Quote from: delboy on November 16, 2010, 12:34:19 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on November 16, 2010, 09:53:11 AM
Quote from: Lecale2 on November 16, 2010, 08:22:23 AM
I still find it surprising how many people in the south just don't realise how bad things are.
I find it surprising how many people in the north don't realise who close behind us they are.

We're tied into the UK as a whole (thank god), time will tell but certainly the bond markets seem much happier that the UK isn't going to default (running around the 4 % mark on 10 year bonds).
That the UK is going to go cap in hand like ireland is largely wishful thinking on your part.
I was a being a bit dramatic I agree, but it's quite annoying to hear northerners constantly talk with great glee about the situation down here, seemingly ignorant of the fact that they had a worse bubble that was equally as badly handled and the people behaved in a similar way as that witnessed in the worst excesses of the celtic tiger and that without the UK backing up the north it would have been in Ireland's position long ago.
In the long term you are probably right, the UK will probably not need to resort to the EU for funding, but it's definitely not certain, stranger things have happened.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/nov/16/ireland-globalrecession?intcmp=239

see this article
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 16, 2010, 02:12:40 PM
Nobody knows what is going to happen in the next year. Nobody predicted at the start of the year that Irish bond yields would touch 9%. The UK is taking a big gamble with its austerity drive and the markets have no respect for anyone so I wouldn't put the house on the UK not getting into difficulty.   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on November 16, 2010, 02:31:19 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 16, 2010, 02:12:40 PM
Nobody knows what is going to happen in the next year. Nobody predicted at the start of the year that Irish bond yields would touch 9%. The UK is taking a big gamble with its austerity drive and the markets have no respect for anyone so I wouldn't put the house on the UK not getting into difficulty.

Pat Kenny played a clip of David McWilliams back in Jan 2009. He predicted this and that we should do exactly what we are doing now.. Kenny asked him if he was happy that he was right and he said No. He pretty much said the Government new it too as it wasn't that hard to see.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 16, 2010, 03:11:21 PM
Is this it?

http://www.forexlive.com/146524/all/irish-government-to-issue-statement-at-1700-gmt (http://www.forexlive.com/146524/all/irish-government-to-issue-statement-at-1700-gmt)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: gerrykeegan on November 16, 2010, 03:24:22 PM
Come on Muppet you right well this is going to be one those, everything is going to be ok statements. We will not need a bailout we are fine. We might however take some spare cash for our long suffering banks, and the only reason they are suffering is because of the nasty speculators.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 16, 2010, 03:53:27 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on November 16, 2010, 02:31:19 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 16, 2010, 02:12:40 PM
Nobody knows what is going to happen in the next year. Nobody predicted at the start of the year that Irish bond yields would touch 9%. The UK is taking a big gamble with its austerity drive and the markets have no respect for anyone so I wouldn't put the house on the UK not getting into difficulty.

Pat Kenny played a clip of David McWilliams back in Jan 2009. He predicted this and that we should do exactly what we are doing now.. Kenny asked him if he was happy that he was right and he said No. He pretty much said the Government new it too as it wasn't that hard to see.

I saw a David McWilliams video on youtube from 2005/2006 where he was encouraging Americans to come over and join the miracle...
The markets weren't pricing his scenario this time last year. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 16, 2010, 03:56:13 PM
Quote from: gerrykeegan on November 16, 2010, 03:24:22 PM
Come on Muppet you right well this is going to be one those, everything is going to be ok statements. We will not need a bailout we are fine. We might however take some spare cash for our long suffering banks, and the only reason they are suffering is because of the nasty speculators.

Gerry. This is like the moment in July when the Mayo lads realise the team is sh*te and they are not going to win the all-Ireland this year and they start thinking about next year and bitching amongst each other over the big match temperament of Austin O'Malley or someone suchlike. The moment is here.   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 16, 2010, 04:00:24 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 16, 2010, 03:56:13 PM
Quote from: gerrykeegan on November 16, 2010, 03:24:22 PM
Come on Muppet you right well this is going to be one those, everything is going to be ok statements. We will not need a bailout we are fine. We might however take some spare cash for our long suffering banks, and the only reason they are suffering is because of the nasty speculators.

Gerry. This is like the moment in July when the Mayo lads realise the team is sh*te and they are not going to win the all-Ireland this year and they start thinking about next year and bitching amongst each other over the big match temperament of Austin O'Malley or someone suchlike. The moment is here.   

The secret is we always back the opponents.  ;)

Meanwhile back to the 'who called it right?' debate:

Morgan Kelly is the undisputed heavyweight champion. Watch the sneering of Keenan (Indo) and Kevin McConnell Bloxham's Head of Research:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=11CCxv2ueiQ&feature=&p=334100C583201F6D&index=0&playnext=1 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=11CCxv2ueiQ&feature=&p=334100C583201F6D&index=0&playnext=1)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 16, 2010, 04:03:25 PM
Keenan asks are Morgan Stanley or some other shower of analysts wrong ?
And how wrong they were.   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: BarryBreensBandage on November 16, 2010, 04:14:35 PM
Don't worry lads - Gerry Adams is comin down to save yis.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Franko on November 16, 2010, 04:38:31 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on November 16, 2010, 02:09:23 PM
Quote from: delboy on November 16, 2010, 12:34:19 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on November 16, 2010, 09:53:11 AM
Quote from: Lecale2 on November 16, 2010, 08:22:23 AM
I still find it surprising how many people in the south just don't realise how bad things are.
I find it surprising how many people in the north don't realise who close behind us they are.

We're tied into the UK as a whole (thank god), time will tell but certainly the bond markets seem much happier that the UK isn't going to default (running around the 4 % mark on 10 year bonds).
That the UK is going to go cap in hand like ireland is largely wishful thinking on your part.
I was a being a bit dramatic I agree, but it's quite annoying to hear northerners constantly talk with great glee about the situation down here, seemingly ignorant of the fact that they had a worse bubble that was equally as badly handled and the people behaved in a similar way as that witnessed in the worst excesses of the celtic tiger and that without the UK backing up the north it would have been in Ireland's position long ago.
In the long term you are probably right, the UK will probably not need to resort to the EU for funding, but it's definitely not certain, stranger things have happened.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/nov/16/ireland-globalrecession?intcmp=239

see this article

Firstly, any 'northerner' who talks with glee about the situation in the Irish Republic is a fool and as such their opinion should be treated with due respect.

The knock-on effect of the ROI financial collapse and the UK's austerity plans (especially regarding public sector jobs) could be almost catastrophic for our economy here in the black north.

However, you are being dramatic again with your assertion that there was a worse bubble here than in ROI and that it was just as badly handled.  I will agree that it was of the same order of magnitude though.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Kerry Mike on November 16, 2010, 04:41:07 PM
rte.ie

Taoiseach Brian Cowen, along with the leaders of the Opposition, will make statements in the Dáil this evening on financial stability.

The new addition to today's Dáil schedule will allow for ten-minute slots for Mr Cowen, and for Fine Gael, Labour and Sinn Féin.

The title of the discussion is 'Statements on financial stability development in Ireland and elsewhere'.

It is due to take place following the Order of Business, which usually finishes around 5pm.

The statements will be made as Ireland's debt crisis is expected to be discussed by eurozone finance ministers who are meeting in Brussels.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: give her dixie on November 16, 2010, 05:04:54 PM
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/nov/16/ireland-bailout-debt-crisis

Live coverage from Brussels
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 16, 2010, 05:16:03 PM
Biffo said nothing. FF are still hanging on.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: thejuice on November 16, 2010, 05:18:14 PM
yeah it seems Cowen was just flapping his lips for the sake of it. The signs are looking to be that the country is going in the opposite direction that he said
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 16, 2010, 05:22:38 PM
4.54pm: It's Rumour City right now, with the Wall Street Journal reporting that EU officials are considering a "€80bn to €100bn" bailout for Ireland, and a separate rescue package for the Irish banks.

The WSJ also claims that the Eurozone are keen for the UK to make a contribution to this rescue package....
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 16, 2010, 05:24:57 PM
5.10pm: Over in the Irish Dail, the breaking news is that Ireland has not applied for a bailout.

Brian Cowen has just said that Ireland has made no application for external support. Instead, his government is close to finalising its four-year fiscal plan, and hopes to publish it next week.

Cowen told the Dail that this plan will be "clear and workable", and that it will maintain the current commitment to protect bank deposits in Ireland. He also said that it is important to find a "credible, workable solution to remove the uncertainty in the markets", and argued that the current turbulence has been about "issues beyond just Ireland"


We won't see out the month.......... ::)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 16, 2010, 05:33:10 PM
5.25pm: Brian Lenihan, Ireland's finance minister, has finally arrived at the crucial eurozone talks in Brussels!

Running an hour and a quarter late, Lenihan told reporters that Ireland is "fully funded until the middle of next year", adding that the markets are "not being good to Ireland".


This has to be a wind up. FF are about to find out that they can destroy their own country but they won't be allowed to destroy anyone else's.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 16, 2010, 05:51:59 PM
5.45pm David Cameron, Prime Minister of Britain has claimed inability of his nation to contribute the €8 Billion required by the EU to the bailout of the Republic of Ireland. In a statement to reporters, following the announcement of the Royal Engagement, Mr. Cameron stated that Britain were willing to give Northern Ireland and Wales to the Republic instead.

The Taoiseach, Brian Cowen, refused Mr. Cameron's offer stating 'a bailout is supposed to leave us LESS fucked'.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 16, 2010, 06:16:49 PM
More seriously we are going to have another 'statement'. I hope Lenihan knows what is happening because the rest of FF don't.

6.04pm: Over in Dublin, RTE journalist Fergal Keane is reporting Cowen's speech didn't go down well with backbenchers and that the rumour mill is in overdrive about the announcement due at 7pm from Brussels.

There is speculation that it would include some sort of face-saving deal for the Irish government.

Of course, that press conference could come later than 7pm, given the late start (see 5.25pm)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: CiKe on November 16, 2010, 06:31:34 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jllJ-HeErjU

Saw this, thought was quite funny.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Shamrock Shore on November 16, 2010, 06:41:26 PM
Can we not get Dick Roche out again for some more clarification?

What genius thought it was a good idea to let him out earlier.

We are a laughing stock  >:(
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 16, 2010, 06:44:21 PM
Quote from: Shamrock Shore on November 16, 2010, 06:41:26 PM
Can we not get Dick Roche out again for some more clarification?

What genius thought it was a good idea to let him out earlier.

We are a laughing stock  >:(

1840

Dick Roche statement: We are fully fucked into the middle of the next century.


Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: thejuice on November 16, 2010, 06:46:24 PM
what did Eamon Gilmore say, i only got the start of his speech but he said that our best days are ahead of us. Did he go on the explain what was going to be so good in the 2050's?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 16, 2010, 06:59:30 PM
Quote from: thejuice on November 16, 2010, 06:46:24 PM
what did Eamon Gilmore say, i only got the start of his speech but he said that our best days are ahead of us. Did he go on the explain what was going to be so good in the 2050's?

We won't have any heating bills thanks global warming?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 16, 2010, 07:32:59 PM
http://video.consilium.europa.eu/index.php?pl=&sessionno=3169&lang=EN (http://video.consilium.europa.eu/index.php?pl=&sessionno=3169&lang=EN)

Live and exclusive from 1900.

Update: Lenny late as usual
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 16, 2010, 08:57:35 PM
I couldn't believe Biffo's speech. He said nothing. What was the point? 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 16, 2010, 09:23:39 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 16, 2010, 08:57:35 PM
I couldn't believe Biffo's speech. He said nothing. What was the point?

It was 2 O'Clock. He needed to distract everyone so he announced a statement for 5 O'Clock. He didn't think beyond that.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 16, 2010, 09:38:57 PM
EU/EMF/IMF team coming to Ireland 'in case we need to ask'.

That means no bailout until Cowen and co figure out how to ask for it and save face/stay in power.

Ireland/EU/Euro & Portugal/Spain might all fail. But 'for de sake of de party'.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 16, 2010, 09:41:02 PM
What sort of accent does Lenihan have? It's not Dublin. Is it Roscommon ?

Interesting that they were talking to the IMF at the weekend.
The banks must be truly F$%^&d.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: CiKe on November 16, 2010, 09:48:22 PM
Muppet that last comment is a bit OTT I think. There is a tendency for knee jerk reactions to financial market conditions - bond spreads are certainly worrying but Ireland does not currently need to borrow. The banks are obviously in bad shape and locked out of the money markets but Cowen, Lenihan et al owe us all to get what they can. According to BIS, Germany is a creditor to Ireland to the tune of about £205bn, while the UK is a creditor to the tune of £220bn (think those were the figures i saw today anyway). That gives a bit of scope to try and negotiate. That and the fact that should Ireland get a bail out, all that will happen is that focus will shift to Portugal. There is no point rushing things so that all of a sudden bond spreads tighten tomorrow and the equity market recovers today's losses, when that doesn't do a damn thing for the economy.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 16, 2010, 09:55:25 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 16, 2010, 09:41:02 PM
What sort of accent does Lenihan have? It's not Dublin. Is it Roscommon ?

Interesting that they were talking to the IMF at the weekend.
The banks must be truly F$%^&d.
It's a Belvedere accent.

I think you're wrong btw, they couldn't have been talking to the IMF at the weekend, I just heard Dermot Ahern say that they definitely weren't.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: turk on November 16, 2010, 09:59:27 PM
If Dermot Ahern said it then it must be true!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 16, 2010, 10:01:51 PM
Quote from: CiKe on November 16, 2010, 09:48:22 PM
Muppet that last comment is a bit OTT I think. There is a tendency for knee jerk reactions to financial market conditions - bond spreads are certainly worrying but Ireland does not currently need to borrow. The banks are obviously in bad shape and locked out of the money markets but Cowen, Lenihan et al owe us all to get what they can. According to BIS, Germany is a creditor to Ireland to the tune of about £205bn, while the UK is a creditor to the tune of £220bn (think those were the figures i saw today anyway). That gives a bit of scope to try and negotiate. That and the fact that should Ireland get a bail out, all that will happen is that focus will shift to Portugal. There is no point rushing things so that all of a sudden bond spreads tighten tomorrow and the equity market recovers today's losses, when that doesn't do a damn thing for the economy.

The banks do and their debt is our debt.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: CiKe on November 16, 2010, 10:15:36 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 16, 2010, 10:01:51 PM
Quote from: CiKe on November 16, 2010, 09:48:22 PM
Muppet that last comment is a bit OTT I think. There is a tendency for knee jerk reactions to financial market conditions - bond spreads are certainly worrying but Ireland does not currently need to borrow. The banks are obviously in bad shape and locked out of the money markets but Cowen, Lenihan et al owe us all to get what they can. According to BIS, Germany is a creditor to Ireland to the tune of about £205bn, while the UK is a creditor to the tune of £220bn (think those were the figures i saw today anyway). That gives a bit of scope to try and negotiate. That and the fact that should Ireland get a bail out, all that will happen is that focus will shift to Portugal. There is no point rushing things so that all of a sudden bond spreads tighten tomorrow and the equity market recovers today's losses, when that doesn't do a damn thing for the economy.

The banks do and their debt is our debt.

You're right they do, and are pretty much insolvent, but a lot of debt is held by Germany and UK. Germany don't want fiscal transfers (understandably), but if they force a debt restructuring, that is a decent haircut they are looking at. Probably more politically expedient as while it will still likely cost the German taxpayer money (via Landesbanken losses), it isn't as obvious.

I think the end game is a foregone conclusion, but I sure as hell hope FF are fighting tooth and nail for every last concession they can get if Ireland bow to the pressure and ask for an aid package (and the pressure does not seem to be unanimous btw, some countries seem a bit uncomfortable with it).
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: give her dixie on November 16, 2010, 10:22:02 PM
Max Keiser from Russia Today gives a good spin on the crisis.
Well worth a watch........

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nQFHgcFlrlw&feature=share
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 16, 2010, 10:23:21 PM
Well folks hope you all remember this day. I've just watched Dick Roche on Primetime and he is continuing the fine tradition of FF as a liar and charlatan and RTE are well on message producing the puff piece on the friendly IMF with Mr Casey and Mr Bourke ex employees saying how nice they are and just want to help.
We certainly are living through extraordinary times and I really feel sorry for the next generation and can only apologise for being complicit in letting it happen. 
Saw that Keiser piece already - he's a piece of work alright and there's a great clip of him nailing goldman sachs out there
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 16, 2010, 10:31:05 PM
All of the waffle about sovereignty is pointless. The Government has run out of options. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: thejuice on November 16, 2010, 10:34:06 PM
Quote from: Declan on November 16, 2010, 10:23:21 PM
Well folks hope you all remember this day. I've just watched Dick Roche on Primetime and he is continuing the fine tradition of FF as a liar and charlatan and RTE are well on message producing the puff piece on the friendly IMF with Mr Casey and Mr Bourke ex employees saying how nice they are and just want to help.
We certainly are living through extraordinary times and I really feel sorry for the next generation and can only apologise for being complicit in letting it happen
Saw that Keiser piece already - he's a piece of work alright and there's a great clip of him nailing goldman sachs out there

What options are there though. Should we be out lobbing bricks at Leinster house. That's what I feel like doing the more I watch this shambles by the way
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on November 16, 2010, 10:36:32 PM
Max Keiser from Russia Today gives a good spin on the crisis.

last Russian default ...1998 or maybe 2008.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 16, 2010, 10:36:54 PM
Dick Roche was very poor. It doesn't say much for FF that nobody else had the cojones to stand up and present the Government's case. Where were Dempsey or the minister for Foreign Affairs?   Very shoddy. Dick roche out of his depth like a junior C corner back marking Eoin Kelly in the all-Ireland final.   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 16, 2010, 11:00:00 PM
QuoteWhat options are there though

Lets have a look and see what other countries that have had crises have done - e.g Iceland/Argentina etc. We are in awe of the bondholders and markets to an unreal extent for purely ideological reasons. The imbalance in the public pay bill and income has to be addressed but what people are forgetting is that this is manageable with a proper plan and co-operation but the fact that our bankers have fucked us over and are the source of the current situation has to be addressed properly. We do not have to bail them out!!!

QuoteIt doesn't say much for FF that nobody else had the cojones to stand up and present the Government's case. Where were Dempsey or the minister for Foreign Affairs?   Very shoddy.
You're making the mistake of thinking that FF and their followers actually give a shit about the rest of us. They couldn't care less what we think about them and are only interested in protecting themselves and their fellow travellers. Why do you think Anglo was bailed out? Why do you the limit on NAMA was decided upon? They only care about feathering their own nests   


 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on November 16, 2010, 11:06:56 PM
I think it is too easy to blame FF. FG have as many if not more lightweights ( pro-rata) . Would they have made better decisions ... I doubt it .

As a nation we continue to elect politicians who are publicans or former GAA players or both and reject the candidates who you couldnt have a pint with or missed a second cousins removal/wake. George Lee didnt fit the mould ( might have been einstein either).

Even when we elect someone seemingly intelligent it backfires ...Lenihan ( an honest man imo )  is perceived as the most popular FF'er but made the biggest errors and is the man celebrated on property pin as the lawyer who didnt read the small print. True BTW.

Above all the people who have let us down the most are the permanent government ...the civil service ...those working in the department of finance ...central bank etc. and still these cnuts lead us ever deeper into the hole.

We owe Irish bank bondholders nought.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Shamrock Shore on November 17, 2010, 12:07:16 AM
When Dick Roche is sent out to fight the good fight then you know you are bollixed.

20-50 people have brought this country to its knees. Less than were in the GPO in 1916. 20-50 fuckin people.

We haven't seen the half of it yet lads. Wait for the personal debt elephant to rouse from his slumber in the kitchen. With his even more grumpy colleague the professional debt elephant represeting doctors/barristers/dentists/accountants who were encouraged to get into the high leveraged property game by the spawns of Satan like Bank of Scotland (Ireland) and their ilk. At least we aren't liable for Ulster and BOS(I). Ye Norn Iron lads are  :P

I've had a stressful month filing tax returns and closing down businesses. Most punters have no money to pay their tax. Businesses are closing owing shedloads which have a knock-on affect.

At least we'll have the O'Byrne Cup in January. Like them feckin steeples in Fermanagh and Tyrone we'll always have The O'Byrne Cup.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: highorlow on November 17, 2010, 12:25:15 AM
The Gov need to call for a Chinese  ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: INDIANA on November 17, 2010, 12:34:18 AM
Quote from: bcarrier on November 16, 2010, 11:06:56 PM
I think it is too easy to blame FF. FG have as many if not more lightweights ( pro-rata) . Would they have made better decisions ... I doubt it .

As a nation we continue to elect politicians who are publicans or former GAA players or both and reject the candidates who you couldnt have a pint with or missed a second cousins removal/wake. George Lee didnt fit the mould ( might have been einstein either).

Even when we elect someone seemingly intelligent it backfires ...Lenihan ( an honest man imo )  is perceived as the most popular FF'er but made the biggest errors and is the man celebrated on property pin as the lawyer who didnt read the small print. True BTW.

Above all the people who have let us down the most are the permanent government ...the civil service ...those working in the department of finance ...central bank etc. and still these cnuts lead us ever deeper into the hole.

We owe Irish bank bondholders nought.

Not sure any other party has bigger skeletons in Anglo in FF. The dogs on the street know why that bank was saved. And it wasnt for anything as noble as the country.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: NetNitrate on November 17, 2010, 01:32:56 AM
Thank God for the foreign media for telling us what was going on. Fianna Fail and RTE might as well hire Comical Ali to be their spokesman, such was the bullshit they've been spouting and peddaling all week. A disgraceful shower.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 17, 2010, 07:56:09 AM
This front page sums it up

(http://news.sky.com/sky-news/content/StaticFile/jpg/2010/Nov/Week3/15812164.jpg)

As SS said it was a relatively small number of people who were directly responsible for our current position and listening to the reports of that b**tard Drumm's court case in the states makes my blood boil.

Here's the IMF statement:

Press Release No. 10/441

November 16, 2010

A spokesperson for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued the following statement today on Ireland:

"We welcome the intention of the Irish authorities to implement a decisive multi-year fiscal plan and measures to bolster and strengthen its financial sector.

"At the request of the Irish authorities, an IMF team will participate in a short and focused consultation, together with the European Commission, and the ECB, in order to determine the best way to provide any necessary support to address market risks."
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Lecale2 on November 17, 2010, 08:22:22 AM
Would it be any different with FG/Lab in power?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: delboy on November 17, 2010, 08:30:55 AM
Quote from: Bogball XV on November 16, 2010, 02:09:23 PM
Quote from: delboy on November 16, 2010, 12:34:19 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on November 16, 2010, 09:53:11 AM
Quote from: Lecale2 on November 16, 2010, 08:22:23 AM
I still find it surprising how many people in the south just don't realise how bad things are.
I find it surprising how many people in the north don't realise who close behind us they are.

We're tied into the UK as a whole (thank god), time will tell but certainly the bond markets seem much happier that the UK isn't going to default (running around the 4 % mark on 10 year bonds).
That the UK is going to go cap in hand like ireland is largely wishful thinking on your part.
I was a being a bit dramatic I agree, but it's quite annoying to hear northerners constantly talk with great glee about the situation down here, seemingly ignorant of the fact that they had a worse bubble that was equally as badly handled and the people behaved in a similar way as that witnessed in the worst excesses of the celtic tiger and that without the UK backing up the north it would have been in Ireland's position long ago.
In the long term you are probably right, the UK will probably not need to resort to the EU for funding, but it's definitely not certain, stranger things have happened.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/nov/16/ireland-globalrecession?intcmp=239

see this article

Anyone talking about the souths position with glee is a potato head, and i agree with you that things could get a lot worse in the UK, only time will tell though, i hope both economies come out of it in reasonable shape!! 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 17, 2010, 08:33:59 AM
QuoteWould it be any different with FG/Lab in power?

We don't know but Labour did vote against the bank guarantee.

Punching above our weight!!!
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/05/02/weekinreview/02marsh.html (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/05/02/weekinreview/02marsh.html)

Bear in mind we have the highest average private sector dept per capita in the world
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 17, 2010, 10:23:49 AM
Shamrock Shore

I reckon the second home mortgages an semi commercial property will be the next problem.  A lot of people got in way over their heads on overpriced "investment" property in Ireland and the 4 corners of the world. I remember an uncle of mine telling us all in Christmas 05 that what we should do was get into Bulgaria. My father asked him what sort of apartment. He said "no apartments, you build a block of them with 4 retail units on the ground floor.."   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 17, 2010, 10:31:13 AM
Quote from: Shamrock Shore on November 17, 2010, 12:07:16 AMWith his even more grumpy colleague the professional debt elephant represeting doctors/barristers/dentists/accountants who were encouraged to get into the high leveraged property game by the spawns of Satan like Bank of Scotland (Ireland) and their ilk. At least we aren't liable for Ulster and BOS(I). Ye Norn Iron lads are  :P
I've been hearing a few stories regarding the professionals and their leveraging too - big firms, small firms, it made no difference, partners on their own and syndicates of partners and doctors etc.....
We'll see how the PG's stand up.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 17, 2010, 10:41:13 AM
Was only discussing this with a mate this morning; Here's a mail he sent me

Build it and they will come...or maybe not

And the owner of one of the biggest shopping centres in Riga? xxxxx of xxxxxx..made a fortune opening oysters in Clarenbridge , bought near the top of the market in 2005 – funny thing is : Latvians have gone right off oysters since the IMF went in.

There is a great monument in Riga to Latvian hardship under the Germans in WW2 ..might get a grant from the arts council to put a styofoam version in the new €1bn Convention Centre.

And as you mention Galway, I know a guy down there whose company borrowed from 2005 to 2007 on QUARTERLY revaluations of their property "portfolio".....to invest in more property – and they expect us to bail them out....Bentley and Ferrari driving, nothing quite like the free lunch.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: An Gaeilgoir on November 17, 2010, 10:41:44 AM
A few personal points on the past 36 hours;

Watching Prime time last night and the performance of Joan Burton and Dick Roche, we have people in power and waiting in the wings who do not have the mental capacity,skill or knowledge  to deal with the crisis we are in or to formulate a plan to sort it out.  Fianna Fail have betrayed this country and all its peoples and history will judge them in years to come. Where are the Greens, IMPACT, SIPTU etc. over the last few days, shame on them as well as they are equally guilty in bringing us to this endgame.

The IMF and ECB arriving in is in my opinion is no harm, it will bring in a purpose, a direction and a way out of this mess. Paycuts for the public sector of up to 15%, halfing the number of Quangos, reducing the number of public service workers and yes i know there will be cuts to frontline services, but this is now the price of pur mis-managment whether we like it or not.This will bring our country in to line with our private and other public sector terms and conditions across the EU and end the cosy relationship between our government, vested interests and the unions. Not before time.

As for David Drumm, it now looks like he is going to get away with the bankruptcy, the legal advocate in the court in the states has said that Drumm was "forced" into all his actions by Anglo and now that the share value is worth 0 all his debts should now be valued at 0 as well. Anglo is trying to fight it but as stated earlier on Bloomberg it is now "likely" that the 0 figure will come to pass and Drumm will keep all his assets.

I for one am personally sad that our once fine nation has come to this, but we have to draw a line here and now and start again, hopefully going back to what was important to Irish people once, hard work ,fair pay, social equality and the greater good. Is there a strong political leader / force that might give come from this mess and restore these values again.  A new constitution would be a good start. Shame on the two Brians and the legacy they have left us.





Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Banana Man on November 17, 2010, 10:42:00 AM
The British govt said they were ready to help Ireland if needed, in what form? would this be a seperate bailout to the EU? if so would it be in addition to the EU or mean the EU bailout would not then be required?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 17, 2010, 10:42:06 AM
Quote from: NetNitrate on November 17, 2010, 01:32:56 AM
Thank God for the foreign media for telling us what was going on. Fianna Fail and RTE might as well hire Comical Ali to be their spokesman, such was the bullshit they've been spouting and peddaling all week. A disgraceful shower.
very true, they actually think that by fighthing this rearguard action they might salvage some credibility.

The whole thing just embarrasses me, from the likes of Bertie running round giving speeches about how he engineered the miracle, the excesses of the last few tiger year, the repeated lies of our politicians and now finally the rest of europe getting their payback.

In May of this year the Germans finished repaying their WW1 reparation payments, I wonder we will have our debts repaid before the end of this century?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: give her dixie on November 17, 2010, 11:32:06 AM
Hitler calls Brian Cowen:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-2UTXffglw
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Billys Boots on November 17, 2010, 12:39:52 PM
Cameron and the Tories have got to be thinking that this is their big chance to get rid of NI on the cheap.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 17, 2010, 03:13:49 PM
And there's more:

Press Release 17 November 2010

The Central Bank of Ireland today published the latest data on mortgage arrears and repossessions for the period ended September 2010. The figures show that at end September 2010 there were almost 789,000 private residential mortgage accounts held in Ireland to a value of €117.4 billion. Of these 40,472 were in arrears for more than 90 days. Furthermore, the data shows that overall mortgage debt outstanding for private residential mortgages decreased by €316 million since the second quarter of 2010.
Arrears Data
As at end September 2010, 40,472 mortgage accounts, or 5.1%, were in arrears for more than 90 days of which 28,049, or 3.6% of the total mortgage accounts, were more than 180 days in arrears. In value terms, €7.8 billion was owed in relation to all accounts more than 90 days in arrears, of which €5.5 billion was owed for accounts more than 180 days in arrears. Mortgage accounts in arrears for more than 90 days increased by 11.1% since the end of June 2010.
There was an increase of 2.1% in the number of formal demands outstanding which have been issued by mortgage lenders bringing the total number outstanding to 5,576. In these cases the level of arrears amounts to €92.8 million on outstanding mortgages totalling just over €1.2 billion. There was also an increase in the level of outstanding arrears cases where court proceedings had been issued to enforce the debt/security on the mortgage. At the end of September 2010 there were 3,054 such cases which is an increase of 1% since the end of June 2010. In these cases the level of arrears amounted to €101.8 million on outstanding mortgages totalling €694 million

Latest Arrears and Repossessions Figures show 5.1% of mortgage accounts in arrears for more than 90 days .Its a ticking time bomb that needs something done.And its not just mortgages, its bank loans, car loans and finance loans. If they dont get paid the banks will take one almighty hit.

A total of 54 properties were disposed of during the quarter. This left mortgage lenders with 522 repossessed residential properties at the end of September 2010.
A lot of homes lying empty from repossession.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Evil Genius on November 17, 2010, 03:54:41 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on November 17, 2010, 10:42:06 AMIn May of this year the Germans finished repaying their WW1 reparation payments, I wonder we will have our debts repaid before the end of this century?
The UK finally repaid the last of its borrowing from the USA for WWII on 31/12/2006.

That said, we could easily have repaid it earlier, except that it was originally negotiated at a very low rate (2%?). And since the UK could simultaneously lend at a higher rate, it made sense to arbitrage.

I don't know what rate will be attached to the Irish Govt's borrowing, but we can be sure it will be higher than their lending rate.

And as WWI and WWII demonstrate, creditors have long memories.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Evil Genius on November 17, 2010, 03:56:03 PM
Quote from: Billys Boots on November 17, 2010, 12:39:52 PM
Cameron and the Tories have got to be thinking that this is their big chance to get rid of NI on the cheap.
Explain?  ???
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 17, 2010, 03:59:15 PM
Quote from: Evil Genius on November 17, 2010, 03:56:03 PM
Quote from: Billys Boots on November 17, 2010, 12:39:52 PM
Cameron and the Tories have got to be thinking that this is their big chance to get rid of NI on the cheap.
Explain?  ???

we'll help you to the tune of 8bn, but you've got to take the north with it. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: trileacman on November 17, 2010, 04:07:41 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on November 17, 2010, 03:59:15 PM
Quote from: Evil Genius on November 17, 2010, 03:56:03 PM
Quote from: Billys Boots on November 17, 2010, 12:39:52 PM
Cameron and the Tories have got to be thinking that this is their big chance to get rid of NI on the cheap.
Explain?  ???

we'll help you to the tune of 8bn, but you've got to take the north with it.

At a running cost of 6 billion per annum. Makes the 8bn about as useful as an invite to Phillips stag do.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: trileacman on November 17, 2010, 04:12:17 PM
So experts call what way it is going down now?

EU bailout?  IMF bailout?      Both??     increase of coporation tax?     heavy austerity? </> than Greece's??    how fucked is the thing now??     

And then what?? the mortgage and debts cripple or banks again??? Double dip??? and we need a second bailout when it goes bust a second time???
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Evil Genius on November 17, 2010, 04:15:49 PM
Quote from: Declan on November 17, 2010, 03:13:49 PMA total of 54 properties were disposed of during the quarter.
Seems (encouragingly) low.

Quote from: Declan on November 17, 2010, 03:13:49 PMThis left mortgage lenders with 522 repossessed residential properties at the end of September 2010.
Ditto.

Quote from: Declan on November 17, 2010, 03:13:49 PMA lot of homes lying empty from repossession.
Ah.

In any "normal" recession, when faced with mortgagees who can't/won't pay, lenders will still repossess/re-sell, even if at a loss, on the "half a loaf" basis.

However, such has been the drop in property values to date, which would be exacerbated if mortgage lenders put extra repossessed homes on the market, that the lenders can't hope to get even half their "loaf" back, merely crumbs.

Which suggests to me that they may still be drastically overvaluing their loans book and, like Mr. Micawber, are hoping that "something will turn up" before their true financial situation gets exposed.

However if the IMF/ECB arrive before then, they will have no qualms about revealing the true situation, should it suit.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 17, 2010, 04:30:22 PM
Quote from: Evil Genius on November 17, 2010, 04:15:49 PM
Quote from: Declan on November 17, 2010, 03:13:49 PMA total of 54 properties were disposed of during the quarter.
Seems (encouragingly) low.

Quote from: Declan on November 17, 2010, 03:13:49 PMThis left mortgage lenders with 522 repossessed residential properties at the end of September 2010.
Ditto.

Quote from: Declan on November 17, 2010, 03:13:49 PMA lot of homes lying empty from repossession.
Ah.

In any "normal" recession, when faced with mortgagees who can't/won't pay, lenders will still repossess/re-sell, even if at a loss, on the "half a loaf" basis.

However, such has been the drop in property values to date, which would be exacerbated if mortgage lenders put extra repossessed homes on the market, that the lenders can't hope to get even half their "loaf" back, merely crumbs.

Which suggests to me that they may still be drastically overvaluing their loans book and, like Mr. Micawber, are hoping that "something will turn up" before their true financial situation gets exposed.
However if the IMF/ECB arrive before then, they will have no qualms about revealing the true situation, should it suit.

"The Irish banking sector has to be made viable and sustainable," European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said today after finance ministers ended a monthly meeting in Brussels. It "will require quite some reorganisation and restructuring," he said.

The banks will be gone through with a fine tooth comb. The cancer has to be destroyed.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Evil Genius on November 17, 2010, 04:38:55 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on November 17, 2010, 03:59:15 PM
Quote from: Evil Genius on November 17, 2010, 03:56:03 PM
Quote from: Billys Boots on November 17, 2010, 12:39:52 PM
Cameron and the Tories have got to be thinking that this is their big chance to get rid of NI on the cheap.
Explain?  ???

we'll help you to the tune of 8bn, but you've got to take the north with it.
Really?

The UK didn't offer NI to the ROI when the Troubles were at their height and we were costing the Treasury far more (subsidy, bombs and squaddies' lives etc) than at present.

Nor did it offer us  when the "Celtic Tiger" was (or at least felt) well able to pay for us.

So why on earth would it offer NI to the ROI now?

After all the £8bn offer is hardly altruistic, it is to help prevent the ROI economy going completely tits up, thereby protecting the UK's investment over there.

So to lend the ROI £8bn, whilst simultaneously loading even more of a burden (NI) would be a pretty stupid thing to do.

In fact, almost as stupid as the ROI agreeing... :o

Anyhow, there has been a lot of resentment on this Board at Nordies/Brits appearing to gloat at the ROI's present difficulties etc.

For myself, I do not share in that gloating - quite the contrary, in fact - for two reasons.

First, there are very many good people in ROI who had little or no say in the creation of this crisis, yet who will suffer disproportionately from its effects. And the same applies in the UK, even if not to quite the same extent.

Second, if the ROI's economy collapses, then this will have severe repercussions for the UK in terms of our lending and exports to the ROI. And that general hurt will disproportionately damage the NI economy.

That said if, as I genuinely believe, the economic crisis in the ROI will kill off completely some peoples deluded hopes of a United Ireland, at least during my lifetime, then it just shows that even the darkest cloud can still have a silver lining.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: whiskeysteve on November 17, 2010, 04:55:02 PM
The Brits would love to lop off the public sector leper that is the north and for the forseeable future will go as far as they can to cut the spongers adrift. Never will they have had as good an excuse. You would be as well acknowledging that fact as using the economic crises in the south as a vehicle to score smug political points (again).

Will be a very cold house for everyone soon.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 17, 2010, 05:09:28 PM
Quote from: trileacman on November 17, 2010, 04:12:17 PM
So experts call what way it is going down now?

EU bailout?  IMF bailout?      Both??     increase of coporation tax?     heavy austerity? </> than Greece's??    how fucked is the thing now??     

And then what?? the mortgage and debts cripple or banks again??? Double dip??? and we need a second bailout when it goes bust a second time???

I am a complete spoofer when it comes to international finance, so I am about as qualified as the two Brians to call it.

There will be two bailouts (but we will have a new word for it like Leniloan or Lardloan) Bank and State. The State bailout definitely won't be called a bailout.
Some EU countries will contribute as individual Leniloaners but not officially as the EU (some sort of fudge to get around the Lisbon Treaty)
IMF definitely will be involved probably with the Bank Leniloan rather than the State Strategic Leniloan.

There will be announcement soon by Cowen and or Lenihan that they have secured the cheapest Leniloan in history, probably around 5% (and please God not much higher than that). They will be much denying of any denying and even more denying that a Leniloan is a bailout or any other such pejorative term. They will also announce with glee that the saving of the Corporate tax rate proves that we have maintained our sovereignty and that Lenihan wearing lederhosen is merely a personal choice.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: delboy on November 17, 2010, 06:22:19 PM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on November 17, 2010, 04:55:02 PM
The Brits would love to lop off the public sector leper that is the north and for the forseeable future will go as far as they can to cut the spongers adrift. Never will they have had as good an excuse. You would be as well acknowledging that fact as using the economic crises in the south as a vehicle to score smug political points (again).

Will be a very cold house for everyone soon.

You could make the same argument for getting rid of scotland, wales, all of the north of england and even chunks of the south of england, basically any where that isn't the south east england or london which if you want to take such a simplistic myopic view could be said to bank roll the rest of the UK.
Likewise you could say dublin should look to offload huge swathes of ireland as they are a drain on dublins wealth.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: no mo do yakamo on November 17, 2010, 08:32:28 PM
Or maybe the rest of Ireland should rid itself of Dublin as its a massive drain on our resources.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 17, 2010, 08:33:57 PM
Quote from: Banana Man on November 17, 2010, 10:42:00 AM
The British govt said they were ready to help Ireland if needed, in what form? would this be a seperate bailout to the EU? if so would it be in addition to the EU or mean the EU bailout would not then be required?

I think it would be as part of the EU assistance. "Banking analysts... say that RBS has £53bn outstanding loans in Ireland, or about 10% of its total loan book, while Lloyds has lent £31.5bn to Ireland, or 5% of its books. British taxpayers own substantial stakes in both banks."
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: spanner on November 17, 2010, 09:03:28 PM

The only way to find the truth in this balls-up is to have a Tribunal.

Now if only we could find an honest impartial retired Judge to front it up?

And then find some money to pay for it?

:'(
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: highorlow on November 18, 2010, 12:18:09 AM
Something dosn't appear right over the last few months.

Does anyone else think that the lads (FF) have something up thier sleeve?

My theory is there is an offer on the table for an Irish Bank coming from possibly China or the Middle East; one would imagine that the DOF were trying to offload a bank over the last year or so and maybe they have a conditional offer on the table.

What are all these 'high level' talks about?

The last thing the Brits or rest of Europe want is a state from outside the Eurozone taking over a bank in the Eurozone.

If my theory is correct then we are in a very strong bargaining position with the ECB / IMF etc hence the 'enforced' 'bailout'.

Also if you think about what has happened over the last week also with NAMA closing in on MacNamara, this seemed very odd.

Please excuse my ignorance on economics if the above theory appears completely mad. I just think its a kind of obvious one? Sometimes the most obvious ones are overlooked.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 18, 2010, 08:24:57 AM
Irish Central Bank Governor Patrick Honohan has just told Rachel English on RTE's Morning Ireland that he believed Ireland would be getting a bailout, when pressed how much, he confirms it would tens of billions.
Euro rising on the announcement as well
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on November 18, 2010, 08:28:31 AM
Quote from: Declan on November 18, 2010, 08:24:57 AM
Irish Central Bank Governor Patrick Honohan has just told Rachel English on RTE's Morning Ireland that he believed Ireland would be getting a bailout, when pressed how much, he confirms it would tens of billions.
Euro rising on the announcement as well

That should be the final straw for any man or woman. Brian Lenihan and Brian Cowen should be locked up for this. It is beyond any doubt that they have lied to the people. That's nothing new but when they sell the Country and then lie about it to save political face and remain on as administrators for the new owners, it is treason.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 18, 2010, 08:42:33 AM
High or Low

I wish it was true but FF have nothing. The problem is that the European central bank is funding Irish banks to the tune of over €100 billion and they have decided that enough is enough. 

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Banana Man on November 18, 2010, 09:17:31 AM
listening to the news last night 7% of Britain's exports go to Ireland, 7% might not sound a lot but it was more than the combined export to China, India and 2 other nations that I can't remember. It's effectively a company realising that one of their largest customers is about to hit the wall due to a lack of cashflow. They know the demand still exists within that 'customer' for their product so it's in the Brits best interest to bail them out plus the Brits export a large amount to mainland Europe i.e. sell in euros so if the euro weakens due to the ripple affect because of the Irish distress then they get less euros for the pound.

Then factor in the exposure of RBS alone which is effectively a nationalised UK company and it is quite clear if the South goes the UK would take a serious hammering, in short the UK cannot stand by and watch the south drown, Ireland being the backdoor to England now has a new financial meaning.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: ludermor on November 18, 2010, 09:36:25 AM
Irish people get pleasure in stating we always punch above our weight, i think this crisis demonstrates this ability perfectly!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 18, 2010, 10:03:29 AM
Heres a story that encapulates a lot of our problems:

IDA's Silicon Valley dream falls flat

November 18, 2010 - 7:00am
by Declan Tierney
Not one job has been created out of an investment of €27 million by the IDA into farmland in Athenry which was earmarked to be Galway's answer to Silicon Valley.

Four years ago the IDA purchased more than 250 acres of land from Teagasc research centre in Athenry for a whopping €108,000 an acre with the intention that it would become giant sized technological park.

And despite the development by the IDA of a multi million euro access road from the M6 motorway – which was opened earlier this week – there are no indications that any jobs will be created on the massive site.

In fact since the lands were acquired by the IDA, the site has been visited by just one industrialist in the past four years.

Indeed, it has been learned by The Connacht Tribune that the lands – earmarked to create 5,000 high tech jobs – have been leased back to Teagasc for grazing and research purposes.

Galway East TD Paul Connaughton, who raised the matter with Enterprise Minister Batt O'Keeffe, said that it was "an extraordinary amount of money" to pay for agricultural land despite the fact that it was in the boom period.

"The public might have been able to stomach that amount of money being paid for land if it realised the amount of jobs that were predicted but that is not likely to happen in the foreseeable future. It was a bad buy", Deputy Connaughton said.

See full story on this week's Connacht Tribune.

Also this one as well http://www.rabodirect.ie/contactus/default.aspx (http://www.rabodirect.ie/contactus/default.aspx) - The amount of deposits that have left Irish banks is another thing that's not being spoken about
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Capt Pat on November 18, 2010, 10:26:48 AM
Is all this money for the banks?

It is the wrong way to go and is just being done to save the banking aristocracy and the government and VIPs.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 18, 2010, 12:22:37 PM
Quote from: Capt Pat on November 18, 2010, 10:26:48 AM
Is all this money for the banks?

It is the wrong way to go and is just being done to save the banking aristocracy and the government and VIPs.
with the guarantee they're sorta indistinguishable from the state.

Ah, that night in september - there'll be a play about that
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: gerrykeegan on November 18, 2010, 12:43:33 PM
It will be called " Eine nacht im September"
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: fearglasmor on November 18, 2010, 12:48:29 PM
Quote from: highorlow on November 18, 2010, 12:18:09 AM
Something dosn't appear right over the last few months.

Does anyone else think that the lads (FF) have something up thier sleeve?

My theory is there is an offer on the table for an Irish Bank coming from possibly China or the Middle East; one would imagine that the DOF were trying to offload a bank over the last year or so and maybe they have a conditional offer on the table.

What are all these 'high level' talks about?

The last thing the Brits or rest of Europe want is a state from outside the Eurozone taking over a bank in the Eurozone.

If my theory is correct then we are in a very strong bargaining position with the ECB / IMF etc hence the 'enforced' 'bailout'.

Also if you think about what has happened over the last week also with NAMA closing in on MacNamara, this seemed very odd.

Please excuse my ignorance on economics if the above theory appears completely mad. I just think its a kind of obvious one? Sometimes the most obvious ones are overlooked.

I read this on reuters as being a possible scenario alright but it was ranked as the least likely one.  But who knows.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: give her dixie on November 18, 2010, 01:14:51 PM

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2010/1118/1224283626246.html?via=rel&sms_ss=facebook&at_xt=4ce51b0a23b80d09%2C0

The Irish Times - Thursday, November 18, 2010

Was it for this?

IT MAY seem strange to some that The Irish Times would ask whether this is what the men of 1916 died for: a bailout from the German chancellor with a few shillings of sympathy from the British chancellor on the side. There is the shame of it all. Having obtained our political independence from Britain to be the masters of our own affairs, we have now surrendered our sovereignty to the European Commission, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund. Their representatives ride into Merrion Street today.

Fianna Fáil has sometimes served Ireland very well, sometimes very badly. Even in its worst times, however, it retained some respect for its underlying commitment that the Irish should control their own destinies. It lists among its primary aims the commitment "to maintain the status of Ireland as a sovereign State". Its founder, Eamon de Valera, in his inaugural address to his new party in 1926, spoke of "the inalienability of national sovereignty" as being fundamental to its beliefs. The Republican Party's ideals are in tatters now.

The Irish people do not need to be told that, especially for small nations, there is no such thing as absolute sovereignty. We know very well that we have made our independence more meaningful by sharing it with our European neighbours. We are not naive enough to think that this State ever can, or ever could, take large decisions in isolation from the rest of the world. What we do expect, however, is that those decisions will still be our own. A nation's independence is defined by the choices it can make for itself.

Irish history makes the loss of that sense of choice all the more shameful. The desire to be a sovereign people runs like a seam through all the struggles of the last 200 years. "Self-determination" is a phrase that echoes from the United Irishmen to the Belfast Agreement. It continues to have a genuine resonance for most Irish people today.

The true ignominy of our current situation is not that our sovereignty has been taken away from us, it is that we ourselves have squandered it. Let us not seek to assuage our sense of shame in the comforting illusion that powerful nations in Europe are conspiring to become our masters. We are, after all, no great prize for any would-be overlord now. No rational European would willingly take on the task of cleaning up the mess we have made. It is the incompetence of the governments we ourselves elected that has so deeply compromised our capacity to make our own decisions.

They did so, let us recall, from a period when Irish sovereignty had never been stronger. Our national debt was negligible. The mass emigration that had mocked our claims to be a people in control of our own destiny was reversed. A genuine act of national self-determination had occurred in 1998 when both parts of the island voted to accept the Belfast Agreement. The sense of failure and inferiority had been banished, we thought, for good.

To drag this State down from those heights and make it again subject to the decisions of others is an achievement that will not soon be forgiven. It must mark, surely, the ignominious end of a failed administration
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: whiskeysteve on November 18, 2010, 01:41:59 PM
Quote from: give her dixie on November 18, 2010, 01:14:51 PM

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2010/1118/1224283626246.html?via=rel&sms_ss=facebook&at_xt=4ce51b0a23b80d09%2C0

The Irish Times - Thursday, November 18, 2010

Was it for this?

IT MAY seem strange to some that The Irish Times would ask whether this is what the men of 1916 died for: a bailout from the German chancellor with a few shillings of sympathy from the British chancellor on the side. There is the shame of it all. Having obtained our political independence from Britain to be the masters of our own affairs, we have now surrendered our sovereignty to the European Commission, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund. Their representatives ride into Merrion Street today.

Fianna Fáil has sometimes served Ireland very well, sometimes very badly. Even in its worst times, however, it retained some respect for its underlying commitment that the Irish should control their own destinies. It lists among its primary aims the commitment “to maintain the status of Ireland as a sovereign State”. Its founder, Eamon de Valera, in his inaugural address to his new party in 1926, spoke of “the inalienability of national sovereignty” as being fundamental to its beliefs. The Republican Party’s ideals are in tatters now.

The Irish people do not need to be told that, especially for small nations, there is no such thing as absolute sovereignty. We know very well that we have made our independence more meaningful by sharing it with our European neighbours. We are not naive enough to think that this State ever can, or ever could, take large decisions in isolation from the rest of the world. What we do expect, however, is that those decisions will still be our own. A nation’s independence is defined by the choices it can make for itself.

Irish history makes the loss of that sense of choice all the more shameful. The desire to be a sovereign people runs like a seam through all the struggles of the last 200 years. “Self-determination” is a phrase that echoes from the United Irishmen to the Belfast Agreement. It continues to have a genuine resonance for most Irish people today.

The true ignominy of our current situation is not that our sovereignty has been taken away from us, it is that we ourselves have squandered it. Let us not seek to assuage our sense of shame in the comforting illusion that powerful nations in Europe are conspiring to become our masters. We are, after all, no great prize for any would-be overlord now. No rational European would willingly take on the task of cleaning up the mess we have made. It is the incompetence of the governments we ourselves elected that has so deeply compromised our capacity to make our own decisions.

They did so, let us recall, from a period when Irish sovereignty had never been stronger. Our national debt was negligible. The mass emigration that had mocked our claims to be a people in control of our own destiny was reversed. A genuine act of national self-determination had occurred in 1998 when both parts of the island voted to accept the Belfast Agreement. The sense of failure and inferiority had been banished, we thought, for good.

To drag this State down from those heights and make it again subject to the decisions of others is an achievement that will not soon be forgiven. It must mark, surely, the ignominious end of a failed administration


For What Died the Sons of Róisín, was it fame?
For What Died the Sons of Róisín, was it fame?
For what flowed Irelands blood in rivers,
That began when Brian chased the Dane,
And did not cease nor has not ceased,
With the brave sons of ´16,
For what died the sons of Róisín, was it fame?

For What Died the Sons of Róisín, was it greed?
For What Died the Sons of Róisín, was it greed?
Was it greed that drove Wolfe Tone to a paupers death in a cell of cold wet stone?
Will German, French or Dutch inscribe the epitaph of Emmet?
When we have sold enough of Ireland to be but strangers in it.
For What Died the Sons of Róisín, was it greed?

To whom do we owe our allegiance today?
To whom do we owe our allegiance today?
To those brave men who fought and died that Róisín live again with pride?
Her sons at home to work and sing,
Her youth to dance and make her valleys ring,
Or the faceless men who for Mark and Dollar,
Betray her to the highest bidder,
To whom do we owe our allegiance today?


For what suffer our patriots today?
For what suffer our patriots today?
They have a language problem, so they say,
How to write "No Trespass" must grieve their heart full sore,
We got rid of one strange language now we are faced with many, many more,
For what suffer our patriots today?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Billys Boots on November 18, 2010, 02:04:22 PM
QuoteIt is the incompetence of the governments we ourselves elected that has so deeply compromised our capacity to make our own decisions.

f**k the dirge-singing - let us all remember this when we are asked (if we ever are again) to register our franchises. 

And woe betide the next gobshite who tells me that there is no alternative. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: fearglasmor on November 18, 2010, 02:51:43 PM
Normally I avoid answering the door to the phoney smiling handshaking and baby kissing crew,  cant be bothered with them.

Next time !!   It will be different.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 18, 2010, 03:15:48 PM
QuoteNormally I avoid answering the door to the phoney smiling handshaking and baby kissing crew,  cant be bothered with them.
Next time !!   It will be different.

Got this from a mate - He's going to laminate it and read it to the same lads/lassies

So anyway here we go. I want everyone to memorize the following and repeat ad nauseum until you morph into a true Irishman and patriot

Stop talking the country down. They stopped making land a long time ago. This is not a time to apportion blame. Rent is dead money. We are where we are. Everyone lost the run of themselves. There will be a soft landing. Leave it to the experts. No one could have foresaw the collapse. The bank guarantee will be the cheapest bank rescue in the world. No one could have foresaw the costs that Anglo would incur. Ireland is different. We will all share the pain. NAMA is the only show in town. The banks are well capitalized. We need to recapitalize the banks to get credit flowing again. We need to adequately reward the wonderful entrepreneurship of our best and brightest. The fundamentals of the economy are sound. There is no evidence of any wrongdoing. The banks are fine, it's only a short-term liquidity problem. Regulation is strangling innovation. We need to protect the bondholders or our borrowing costs will go up. Everything we do is in an attempt to protect taxpayers. We can't expect to keep the best talent if we don't pay them these wages. The losses are very annoying but they are manageable. I don't know why people who talk the economy down don't go and commit suicide. The economy has turned the corner. People are just playing politics here. We have a job to do (going forward). Our European colleagues support us fully. We need to don the green jersey and drive it on. The Taoiseach was only a little hoarse and he has my full support. There are no funding difficulties at Irish banks.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 18, 2010, 03:30:53 PM
(http://www.irishsentinel.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/ff.jpg)

The Bailout Brothers and their remaining fan.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 18, 2010, 03:35:45 PM
QuoteThe Bailout Brothers

Presume they'll ask the IMF will we get a receipt for that?

http://www.gruupy.com/deals/97?locale=en (http://www.gruupy.com/deals/97?locale=en)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 18, 2010, 04:35:28 PM
Some viewers might this annoying.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7727072816428850581# (http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7727072816428850581#)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: fearglasmor on November 18, 2010, 05:45:32 PM
I wonder does Mary Harney still think we are closer to Boston than Berlin ???
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on November 18, 2010, 06:57:33 PM
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article24222.html

ireland will surely need a bailout, although not just yet. For a while the ECB can maintain the illusion of solvency by funneling liquidity to banks via its emergency facilities. That way, bondholders in Germany and France get their pound of flesh before the ship begins to take on water. All the risk-takers and speculators will be "made whole" again before the full-force before the debts are shifted onto Irish workers.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: CiKe on November 18, 2010, 08:02:13 PM
The EFSF or bilateral loans, whatever the hell we end up with, seem to hold off a liquidity crisis, but Ireland is still f*cked. The way things are unless there is a miracle we aren't going to grow our way out of a deficit, so effectively we just kick things down the road (lets not be too harsh on ourselves about it, the US is doing it and Japan's debt to GDP ratio is simply staggering, and when it goes belly up, Gol help us all...). We may scrape by for another while but I can't see how there isn't going to be a debt restructuring at some stage forcing bondholder haircuts. It would only be right as well - investors who don't do their due diligence properly should not simply be bailed out. A large proportion of these creditors are UK and German though, so hopefully our glorious leaders manage to at least keep the interest down on the loans.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 18, 2010, 08:38:01 PM
FT - Don't blame the euro for Ireland's mess (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5b8f684e-f253-11df-9118-00144feab49a.html#axzz15fVKvf5a)

Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Evil Genius on November 18, 2010, 10:41:06 PM
Quote from: Declan on November 18, 2010, 10:03:29 AM
IDA's Silicon Valley dream falls flat

November 18, 2010 - 7:00am
by Declan Tierney
Not one job has been created out of an investment of €27 million by the IDA into farmland in Athenry which was earmarked to be Galway's answer to Silicon Valley.

Four years ago the IDA purchased more than 250 acres of land from Teagasc research centre in Athenry for a whopping €108,000 an acre with the intention that it would become giant sized technological park.

And despite the development by the IDA of a multi million euro access road from the M6 motorway – which was opened earlier this week – there are no indications that any jobs will be created on the massive site.

In fact since the lands were acquired by the IDA, the site has been visited by just one industrialist in the past four years.

Indeed, it has been learned by The Connacht Tribune that the lands – earmarked to create 5,000 high tech jobs – have been leased back to Teagasc for grazing and research purposes.

Galway East TD Paul Connaughton, who raised the matter with Enterprise Minister Batt O'Keeffe, said that it was "an extraordinary amount of money" to pay for agricultural land despite the fact that it was in the boom period.

"The public might have been able to stomach that amount of money being paid for land if it realised the amount of jobs that were predicted but that is not likely to happen in the foreseeable future. It was a bad buy", Deputy Connaughton said.



By a computer terminal,
I heard a young girl crying,
Michael you'll be gone before the night.
For you believed the IDA's spiel,
That their plans were all for real,
Now it's Ryanair who call you for your flight.

Lies, lies, have ruined Athenry,
Where once we watched the Euro millions fly.
Our hopes were built so high,
Til they left us high and dry,
Now the Developers all are gone from Athenry.

At another terminal,
I saw a young man e-mail,
Mary we are now no longer free.
It's the FT-SE and the Dow,
And IMF who own us now,
And our children must pay in perpetuity.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: An Gaeilgoir on November 18, 2010, 10:42:34 PM
Was struck watching the news tonight at how few TDs there were in the Dail today, our parliment is an irrelevance. I know there was only 90 minutes set aside to talk about the banking crisis and the rest of the the session was to discuss the Irish language over the next 20 years. Maybe we should be discussing the German language, it must be more relevent at this stage. Also watching Prime Time tonight, Pat Carey was in all essence a beaten man and Pat Rabbitte gave it to him with both barrels and he couldn't muster up a reply, the soilders of Destiny are finished, hope the door doesn't hit thim on the way out. Although after listening to Frank Mc Brearaty on Pat kenny today, i don't think Gilmore has anything to be crowing about if that is the only type of candidate he can muster up. The IMF will be running this country for the next 3-5 years and if this gives us a stable economy with as low, as a 1-2 per cent growth year on year...........Good. As some one who is luckily, still working in the construction industry with 2 young kids stability is important. Let the IMF root out and get rid of the Gravy train workers and managment who lurk in the shadows of this country, be they the wealthy avoiding their tax obligations through pension schemes etc. or the public sector workers who may now have to be efficient and come up to private sector work rates and pay rates and if this means frontline workers then so be it.

90 Billion for the banks
25 Billion for possible defaults on mortgages
50 odd Billion to run the country


31 Billion coming in on the other side. This is where we as a nation stand tonight. Was just thinking tonight, of my great- grandfather who fought the Black and Tans in the Tourmakeady ambush, what would he make of our nation tonight?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: theskull1 on November 18, 2010, 10:47:43 PM
Editor of the FT on question time just stated that Ireland has/had the highest number of helicopters per capita of any nation in the world

That stat says alot
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: thejuice on November 18, 2010, 11:00:42 PM
I just hope that people do wake up and not vote for FF again. My Dad is a Fianna Failer his whole life and swears Charlie Haughey was a great man. I asked him the other day what now?, and he swears that only the people who got us into the mess can get us out of it. I don't like to swear at my own father but I was close to it. God I hope people finally f**king wake up.

Looking at the BBC news they interviewed people outside a comedy club. While they were giving it the old, sure you can only laugh at it take on things, they still don't seem have fully realised how fucked up things are. I often feel its that attitude that lets people f**k us over repeatedly cos we'll keep on laughing to our f**king graves.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on November 18, 2010, 11:09:30 PM
Quote from: thejuice on November 18, 2010, 11:00:42 PM
I just hope that people do wake up and not vote for FF again. My Dad is a Fianna Failer his whole life and swears Charlie Haughey was a great man. I asked him the other day what now?, and he swears that only the people who got us into the mess can get us out of it. I don't like to swear at my own father but I was close to it. God I hope people finally f**king wake up.

Looking at the BBC news they interviewed people outside a comedy club. While they were giving it the old, sure you can only laugh at it take on things, they still don't seem have fully realised how fucked up things are. I often feel its that attitude that lets people f**k us over repeatedly cos we'll keep on laughing to our f**king graves.

They can't f**king get us out of it. They have tried and failed so badly they have called in the IMF. That is failure. They have failed. It's end game. There are no more opportunities to get ourselves out or into anything. We are at the whim of a crowd of cowboys who for a change aren't FF and aren't Irish. They are our rulers. The King is dead long Live the King.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Main Street on November 18, 2010, 11:35:39 PM
How long will we have to wait before the penny drops that the new multi billion loans simply disappear into a money heaven and the Gov (FF or FG) program won't work?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on November 18, 2010, 11:38:04 PM
Quote from: Main Street on November 18, 2010, 11:35:39 PM
How long will we have to wait before the penny drops that the new multi billion loans simply disappear into a money heaven and the Gov (FF or FG) program won't work?

What program? Any program will be an IMF program.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Main Street on November 18, 2010, 11:50:19 PM
How long will we have to wait before the penny drops that the new multi billion loans simply disappear into a money heaven and the FF/FG/IMF program won't work?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Main Street on November 19, 2010, 12:03:44 AM
Regardless, it is the Gov who adopt and execute the IMF inspired programs so that the  state of the country´s economy passes the IMF reviews  and is fit for the next loan installment. The next loan installment is the dangled carrot which the country does not actually get to eat.
How long before the people realise this not going to work?

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Evil Genius on November 19, 2010, 12:18:59 AM
Quote from: thejuice on November 18, 2010, 11:00:42 PM
I just hope that people do wake up and not vote for FF again. My Dad is a Fianna Failer his whole life and swears Charlie Haughey was a great man.

And if you want to find the deepest roots of the present crisis, it is not the IMF, or Anglo, or Lehman Brothers, or US Sub-Priime Loans or anything else, it is to be found squarely in the attitude that voted in Charles J Haughey, and kept voting him in, even as he was buying islands off the coast and €300 silk shirts etc, on a Taoiseach's salary.

Some of you who lived in GB at the time might remember an advert for the Leeds Building Society, featuring actor George Cole in his "Arthur Daley" role, promoting their "Liquid Gold Account".

Despite the Account's terms being nothing special,, punters in their droves invested millions of pounds, making the campaign one of the most successful in TV advertising history.

And when the Agency followed up with investors to see exactly why it had struck such a chord, it emerged that whilst none would ever buy anything direct from Daley himself, if he thought something "a good thing", then they wanted a bit of it, too.

As such, Arthur Daley's "Dodgy Geezer" was just the Cockney wide-boy equivalent of CJH's "Cute Hoor". And so in the Irish Republic, people willingly turned a blind eye to the fact that Haughey was enriching himself (and his cronies) when given access to the nation's Treasury, on the basis that he was entitled to a "commission" for bamboozling all those fools in the EU, the International Banks, America, Britain and God-knows-where-else, when building up the Irish economy at those suckers' expense.

Worse still, when CJH finally ended up in that "Great Tax Haven in the Sky", Irish voters periodically went on to elect a succession of mini-Charlies, most notably Bertie Ahern, who was every bit as blatant, though with less of the polish. And now , finally, they have turned to those buffons, the two Brians, who possess all of the "hoordom" of a Haughey, but none of the"cuteness", as is now being exposed for all to see.

But here's the thing. When Charlie and his crew were robbing others blind "for the sake of Ireland" (and their own private purposes), did it never occur to anyone that they might not stop there? That when there was no more left to steal from outsiders, these fundamentally dishonest people would not then turn on their own and steal from them?

P.S. Just found one of those adverts on YouTube:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_3G7skuWBiE
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 19, 2010, 12:34:32 AM
Quote from: Main Street on November 19, 2010, 12:03:44 AM
Regardless, it is the Gov who adopt and execute the IMF inspired programs so that the  state of the country´s economy passes the IMF reviews  and is fit for the next loan installment. The next loan installment is the dangled carrot which the country does not actually get to eat.
How long before the people realise this not going to work?

Gurdgiev pointed out something tonight:

€100 Billion at 5% would mean an extra €5 Billion off the budget needed just to pay the interest never mind pay them back.

Me head is wrecked. How could that work?

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Main Street on November 19, 2010, 12:35:36 AM
Quote from: Zapatista on November 19, 2010, 12:11:02 AM
Two fortnights  ;)
People think things suck now ;D

If the Irish State had chosen not to transform bond debt into sovereign debt, it wouldn't have made a blind bit of difference to the IMF. Maybe the IMF will give the Minister of Finance a pat on the back for being such a sport,  but in reality they are saying what a bunch of utter gobsh'ites to agree to that mountain of bond debt.
The IMF also deal with saner Government who let the banks go bust, but save the deposits and see whats left for the bondholders - paid over a period of time.
There is no escape from an IMF repayment. What was once a bank loan based on an inflated price for a bit of land,
now becomes a sovereign debt owed to the fxckin IMF.
The hole is only really being dug now.
With each installment, the hole gets bigger.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Main Street on November 19, 2010, 12:40:43 AM
Quote from: muppet on November 19, 2010, 12:34:32 AM
Quote from: Main Street on November 19, 2010, 12:03:44 AM
Regardless, it is the Gov who adopt and execute the IMF inspired programs so that the  state of the country´s economy passes the IMF reviews  and is fit for the next loan installment. The next loan installment is the dangled carrot which the country does not actually get to eat.
How long before the people realise this not going to work?

Gurdgiev pointed out something tonight:

€100 Billion at 5% would mean an extra €5 Billion off the budget needed just to pay the interest never mind pay them back.

Me head is wrecked. How could that work?

As I said, it can't work. Things just get worse.
I missed Gurdgiev tonight.  My wife thinks he has such a nice voice.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Turlough O Carolan on November 19, 2010, 12:42:13 AM
Fianna Fail will be back - probably after a stint of FG and Labour - because at the end of the day the people are Fianna Fail. We have been a one party state for so long and when FF mess up they still get elected, forgiven, with the usual comments "sure if the other crowd got in they'd be just as bad." The people are FF and the people are idiots. It was the farmers with land who were out with big brown signs pointing down bohareens only cows had ever been down before, proclaiming: "Development Land". Then you had every Tom, Dick and Harry who was now suddenly a building developer, bogman Donald Trumps, throwing up ugly housing everywhere, with their American names: Crystal Hollow and all that shite. And the farmers who sold the land - their own fathers had broke their backs on - were buying property in Florida and New York and Portugal, enjoying the status of having an "investment property". And because they were stupid, they overpaid there, just as the wannabe developers overpaid them. You had county councils getting money for every useless house that was built and so planning permission was granted without any thought of the consequences. You had local chambers of commerce, local newspapers, local politicians, priests and other lobby groups campaigning for soulless hotels to be built in some of the most natural scenic wonders in the world and if you dared try and stop it, you'd have been shot. There was uproar in Roscommon when Taisce stopped a big ugly hotel being built near the shores of Lough Key after Roscommon County Council granted permission. Thank God. That Canadian Company - Newfound Consortium went bankrupt recently - and we'd have been left with the whole place destroyed and a big ugly heap of concrete shite for future generations to view. Unfortunately this country is full of cowboys and they don't care what they destroy - whether it be a prehistoric monument or our children's future. However our cowboys are the Blazing Saddles type compared to the cowboys out in Europe and when they rode into town there was only one winner. Their stupidity was laid bare for all the world to see. They actually succeeded in doing what the likes of the racist Punch Magazine was never able to do: makes fools of Paddy on the world stage.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Main Street on November 19, 2010, 01:00:34 AM
Greed blinds a sane person, ambition just makes them smell nasty.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: armaghniac on November 19, 2010, 01:29:47 AM
(http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2010/11/19/1290126214256/Steve-Bell-19.11.2010-001.jpg)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: stephenite on November 19, 2010, 01:49:06 AM
Quote from: Turlough O Carolan on November 19, 2010, 12:42:13 AM
Fianna Fail will be back - probably after a stint of FG and Labour - because at the end of the day the people are Fianna Fail. We have been a one party state for so long and when FF mess up they still get elected, forgiven, with the usual comments "sure if the other crowd got in they'd be just as bad." The people are FF and the people are idiots. It was the farmers with land who were out with big brown signs pointing down bohareens only cows had ever been down before, proclaiming: "Development Land". Then you had every Tom, Dick and Harry who was now suddenly a building developer, bogman Donald Trumps, throwing up ugly housing everywhere, with their American names: Crystal Hollow and all that shite. And the farmers who sold the land - their own fathers had broke their backs on - were buying property in Florida and New York and Portugal, enjoying the status of having an "investment property". And because they were stupid, they overpaid there, just as the wannabe developers overpaid them. You had county councils getting money for every useless house that was built and so planning permission was granted without any thought of the consequences. You had local chambers of commerce, local newspapers, local politicians, priests and other lobby groups campaigning for soulless hotels to be built in some of the most natural scenic wonders in the world and if you dared try and stop it, you'd have been shot. There was uproar in Roscommon when Taisce stopped a big ugly hotel being built near the shores of Lough Key after Roscommon County Council granted permission. Thank God. That Canadian Company - Newfound Consortium went bankrupt recently - and we'd have been left with the whole place destroyed and a big ugly heap of concrete shite for future generations to view. Unfortunately this country is full of cowboys and they don't care what they destroy - whether it be a prehistoric monument or our children's future. However our cowboys are the Blazing Saddles type compared to the cowboys out in Europe and when they rode into town there was only one winner. Their stupidity was laid bare for all the world to see. They actually succeeded in doing what the likes of the racist Punch Magazine was never able to do: makes fools of Paddy on the world stage.

Turlough, that is a fantastic post.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: give her dixie on November 19, 2010, 03:02:01 AM

http://globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=21997

Europe`s Monetary Crisis: Ireland's "Suicide Pact" With the E.U.

Ireland could be the next Lehman Brothers. That's what has the markets worried. If Irish leaders refuse to accept a bailout from the EU's new European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), then bondholders will be forced to take haircuts on their investments which will leave banks in Germany and France short of capital. Bonds yields will rise sharply slowing activity in the credit markets. An Irish default will trigger hundreds of billions of dollars in credit default swaps (CDS), which will push weaker counterparties into bankruptcy and domino through the financial system. Contagion will spread to Portugal, Greece, Spain and Italy widening bond yields and forcing governments to increase their borrowing at the ECB. Business activity will sputter, unemployment will rise, and growth will shrink. It will be a second financial meltdown.

But no one believes that will happen. Most people think that Ireland will "take its medicine" and spare bondholders any losses. Irish leaders would rather accept a decade of EU-imposed austerity measures and the loss of sovereignty, then leave the euro and start fresh. It's disappointing. The euro is not designed to meet the needs of the smaller, less industrialized countries like Ireland. They need their own, flexible currency to ease the effects of cyclical downturns. But Irish leaders are still captivated by the idea of a united Europe. So they will cast aside the independence they earned through centuries of struggle for a pipedream and the elusive promise of prosperity.

At present, the Irish government is underwriting the toxic debts of its main banks. Unfortunately, those debts far exceed the revenues of the state. According to BBC's Robert Peston, the liabilities are "equivalent to an oppressive 700% of GDP when banking, public sector and private sector debts are added together." So far, the ECB has helped to keep Irish banks operating by providing 130 billion euros of emergency liquidity. But the wholesale markets no longer accept Irish debt as collateral and bond yields are in nosebleed territory. Irish politicians still maintain they have sufficient funds to get through the middle of next year, but that does not include funding for the banks. In fact, if the ECB stopped lending to the banks today, the system would crash overnight.

So the situation is tense and getting tenser. Even so, everyone expects Ireland's Finance Minister Brian Lenihan to cave in and accept a bailout. That will shift all the losses onto Irish taxpayers.

But what would happen if Lenihan balked and decided to restructure the debt instead of borrowing the money from the EFSF?
Journalist Robert Peston mulls-over that posibility in a recent article for the BBC. Here's an excerpt:

"Anglo Irish Bank and Allied Irish Banks, would probably have to be declared insolvent. And...many billions of euros that Irish taxpayers have already pumped into these banks would have to be written off....

What would then be triggered would be enormous payments by underwriters of credit default swaps (CDSs), the debt insurance contracts taken out by lenders and speculators. These payments would generate enormous losses for the financial institutions, including banks, which provided the CDS cover....

Even without the CDS loss multiplier, the impact of debt haircuts would be painful for British and international banks. According to the Bank for International Settlements, total lending of non-Irish banks to Irish banks is around $170bn, of which British banks provided $42bn, German banks provided $46bn, US banks $25bn and French banks $21bn." ("Ireland: How much punishment for British and international banks?", Robert Peston, BBC)

If Ireland quits the euro, all hell will break loose. The government will have to issue a new currency knowing that their debts will still be denominated in the higher priced euro. That will increase their debt-load. And, they'll be blocked from the raising capital via the bond markets until they've settled old claims. At best, it would take decade or more to dig out and to reestablish their credibility with the markets. On the other hand, they would have shed the euro straitjacket and reestablished their sovereignty. That's got to be worth something, but how much is it really worth?

Journalist Peter Oborne takes a look at the sovereignty issue in a recent article in the Telegraph. Here's an excerpt:

"It cannot be denied that Ireland has lost its status as a sovereign nation. Thanks to its disastrous entanglement with the euro, it has lost any independence in domestic, foreign and above all economic policy. The Irish nation is the creature of Brussels and the European Central Bank. The Irish prime minister has effectively been turned into a pro-consul dispatched to Dublin from Brussels. Brian Lenihan, the finance minister, is like an overseas manager of a Brussels subsidiary. For those of us who love Ireland, this is miserable and demeaning – but it needs to be borne in mind that a similar fate awaits a number of other European countries. Greece already does what it is told by the IMF and the ECB; the same will shortly apply to Portugal and in due course Spain." ("Ireland has lost its sovereignty and is now the creature of Brussels – thanks to the euro", Peter Oborne, Telegraph)

Oborne is not alone in thinking that Ireland is making a mistake by staying in the EU. The Telegraph's Ed West sees things the same way, but describes the EU/Ireland alliance in even darker terms, as a "suicide pact":

"Ireland has a historical attachment to continental Europe, as liberator from British rule, but it perhaps goes even deeper than that, back to its monks' preservation of Western civilization during the Dark Ages. Ireland, more than most countries, feels itself profoundly European and its Catholicism was always a part of that. It is not entirely a coincidence that as Christianity faded Ireland adopted a replacement ideology – the dream of Brussels. Or the world's biggest suicide pact, as I think of it....

Why spend 800 years trying to overthrow the Brits just to come under the sway of the EU? Having said that, almost no one in Ireland goes anywhere as far as UKIP or many Tories in opposing the EU altogether....

The European Project was and is a Utopian idea, based not on practical logic but on an idealistic vision, and it has only one aim in mind – total political union. Along the way its architects have consistently lied to the public about its aims, especially so in the creation of a single currency, which logic suggests requires political unification." ("Ireland's smug, Euro-loving elite has led their country to ruins – 'Little Englanders' saved ours", Ed West, Telegraph)

The financial crisis has stripped away much of the pretense surrounding the 16-country EU. No one is blabbing about ending wars and shared prosperity anymore. The focus has shifted to belt tightening for workers and golden parachutes for bankers and bondholders. In other words, elites are waging the same relentless class war they always have, only this time it's behind the facade of European unity. Does Ireland really want to be a part of that charade?

It's time for Ireland to leave the EU and deliver a blow to the ill-conceived Uberstate. In fact, they should have left years ago.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: stephenite on November 19, 2010, 07:09:03 AM
Most I knew were farmers Zap-stupid cnuts lost the rest when they got in over their heads and now have nothing.
The ones that stuck to what they know best are doing OK.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on November 19, 2010, 07:26:53 AM
Agree with Stephenite and Turlough.

We might have got way with gombeen politicians if we didnt also have gombeen civil servants -  ( the  permanent government)  and especially the department of finance. These are the  same folk who have been leading the " official level" discussions with IMF and ECB.

And why has the " good bank" idea disappeared off all radars. Revoke the guarantee, put 20bn into a new good bank and it will be the in the bondholders in the banks who have the problem. Beware of germans bearing gifts and all that.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 19, 2010, 08:17:03 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqx4E5tq1Bo&feature=player_embedded#! (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqx4E5tq1Bo&feature=player_embedded#!)

About time - Gurdgiev was right and also Karl Dieter on Prime time
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hound on November 19, 2010, 08:19:37 AM
Wall St Journal on 12.5% rate:

Targeting Ireland's Corporate-Tax Rate May Backfire
The Wall Street Journal, Heard on the Street
By Richard Barley
November 18, 2010

European politicians tempted to take aim at Ireland's ultralow 12.5% corporate-tax rate might want to think again, and not only because their Irish counterparts seem willing to defend it to the death.

While other Irish taxes may have to rise to rein in the yawning deficit, raising the corporate-tax rate could damage not only Ireland but its partners, too.

First, Ireland doesn't even have the lowest headline corporate-tax rate in the European Union; that distinction goes to Bulgaria and Cyprus, both at 10%. Headline rates can be misleading. A European Commission study from 2009 found that Ireland's effective corporate-tax rate was higher than the headline, in particular due to real-estate taxes, while in many European countries it was lower than the headline rate.

Second, Ireland's low corporate taxes are crucial to its economic strategy. Corporation-tax revenue as a percentage of gross domestic product has been consistently higher in Ireland than the average in the first 15 EU members, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, or OECD. They also are needed to help create a thriving export sector. Exports account for 80% of GDP, of which some 70%, or €110 billion ($149 billion), depend on foreign direct investment, according to Ireland's IDA investment-promotion agency.

A one-percentage-point rise in the corporate-tax rate could lead to a 3.7% drop in foreign direct investment, the OECD estimates. Nor would the investment necessarily go elsewhere in the EU. Ireland competes, for example, with Switzerland and Singapore for foreign direct investment.

Of course, Ireland has other attractions beyond its tax rate. It has a youthful, highly educated population, good infrastructure and benefits as an English-speaking country. It has moved from being a labor-intensive manufacturing economy to a more high-tech and services-focused model, with tremendous productivity gains.

But as a small country, it has to offer something more than the big economies at the heart of the euro zone. That is something other European countries should bear in mind as they prepare to hand over billions of euros in loans to the Irish government.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 19, 2010, 08:59:54 AM
Quote from: muppet on November 19, 2010, 12:34:32 AM
Quote from: Main Street on November 19, 2010, 12:03:44 AM
Regardless, it is the Gov who adopt and execute the IMF inspired programs so that the  state of the country´s economy passes the IMF reviews  and is fit for the next loan installment. The next loan installment is the dangled carrot which the country does not actually get to eat.
How long before the people realise this not going to work?

Gurdgiev pointed out something tonight:

€100 Billion at 5% would mean an extra €5 Billion off the budget needed just to pay the interest never mind pay them back.

Me head is wrecked. How could that work?

there is nothing wrong with your logic, Muppet.
The EU is doing everything to protect bondholders but it may be beyond them at this stage. The State has done all it could to save the banks and it wasn't enough. Their balance sheets were simply too big for Ireland. The damage was done in 2005 and 2006 when it could have been stopped. 

If the banks need €100bn the state won't be able to pay the interest.

AIB is probably going to be broken up anyway. Ireland is no good to investors if it can't repay its debts.

  "The liquidity and capital assistance that Dublin is exploring with the European Union and International Monetary Fund could break the circle – but only if Ireland promises to use it properly. It is time for tough love, pour encourager les autres. For starters, Dublin should force AIB to come clean about its risk exposures. Then it should break up the bank, salvage only the viable parts, and either sell the rump (unlikely), or put it into Nama-managed run-off (more likely), even if that takes 20 years. Taxpayers have funded this bank charade for long enough."

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/3/adc41bce-f324-11df-9514-00144feab49a.html#axzz15iWACLA9
 
Anyway the sharks are going to go after Spain shortly so the game will get ratcheted up another notch.   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: ludermor on November 19, 2010, 09:42:15 AM
A warning from deserted ghost estates
October 1, 2006

Posted in Articles | Banks | Ireland | Property | Sunday Business Post by David McWilliams 19 Comments
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Driving around Westport in the rain the other day, I was struck by the number of empty houses. Large clusters of 'holiday homes' were dotted all around the coast, creeping out from the town and towards the sea.

Westport isn't alone. All over Ireland, 'ghost estates' are enveloping many of our towns. Driving back from the West, these spooky ghost estates emerged out of the mist announcing places like Termonbarry, Frenchpark and Edgeworthstown. Anywhere there is a tax-driven scheme, there are ghost estates. You don't have to be a child or believe in Halloween to find that scary.

There are an estimated 230,000 vacant properties in Ireland, according to Davy Stockbrokers. This figure is substantiated by this year's reports from the census gatherers, who found a surplus of vacant houses for which nobody answered the census. Following discussions with local estate agents, neighbours and postmen, they concluded that many properties had never been lived in or were long-term vacant.

On the day of the 2002 census, it was estimated that there were just over 140,000 houses vacant across the country. In the past five years, this figure has increased by over 50 per cent, to about 230,000.

Today,13.5 per cent of the total housing stock is vacant. The ESRI did a study on this in May 2005 and found that traditionally Ireland has had a high vacancy rate, but that phenomenon was explained by emigration where houses were left when the people moved to Britain or the US.

However, today – when inward migration is running at 70,000 per year – the emergence of new ghost estates is worrying.

Even if we accept that Ireland might have a slightly different history, are you comfortable with the fact that in Britain – which has a similar home owning and holiday home buying culture, the corresponding figure is 3.2 per cent of all houses? Here one house in seven is empty; over there it is one house in every 31.

There I was thinking all along that we had a housing crisis, with prices rising at double digit rates because we didn't have enough houses.

All the estate agents told me the reason prices were rising was that demand outstripped supply and we needed more houses. Well, it is crystal clear that the opposite is the case. It is not that we don't have enough houses – we have too many.

Here is the problem. With 13.5 per cent of all houses vacant and an estimated 40,000 more ghost houses being built as I write, what is keeping their value up?

Normally, value is some derivative of what the asset earns. But if the asset is earning no income, how does its price continue to rise in the aggregate?

The last time we saw assets being priced with no reference to their underlying yield was in the dotcom boom. Remember that?

Companies with no earnings were being valued at hundreds of millions. Remember Baltimore Technologies?

Back then, everyone believed that the new economy had such massive growth potential that today's borrowing would be turned into gold tomorrow. All the investor had to do was ask no questions, come along for the ride and live the dream.

At least the dotcoms had the vague, if naively plausible story that they were at the front of a technological revolution, that all the old rules had been thrown out of the window and a brave new world awaited the adventurous.

This Messianic message fell on fertile soil, financed by low interest rates. Nobody shouted stop. Nobody pointed out that the dotcom emperor had no clothes. If we check out our property boom where 13.5 per cent of our assets yield nothing – either financially or practically – it is not hard to see that we are dealing with a similar confidence trick.

The confidence trick has become so embedded that last week, a spoof plan for a Dubai-inspired development of Dublin Bay resulted in local politicians receiving angry calls to oppose the mega-development.

Anyone who believed that Dublin Bay could be turned into a space-age investor's paradise, complete with offshore golf courses and giraffe-only zoos, could only have taken leave of their financial senses.

Yet this delusional carry-on continues, despite evidence that only 15 per cent of top-end houses sold at auction this week.

In the past few days, auction houses have been empty, leaving not only estate agents worried but also all the other industries which depend on the property pyramid scheme remaining intact, such as newspapers and their glossy property supplements.

Jeremiahs like myself have worried about this for years, and our concern is not that prices go up and down or that huge amounts of money get diverted/wasted into construction, which has no long lasting impact on the productivity or human capital of the society.

Our concern is more driven by what happens when prices stop going up and begin to come down again. What happens to our banking system, which could be fairly (from examining Central Bank figures on the destination of credit) described as a huge leveraged bet on Irish property?

What happens to the hundreds of thousands of people who have borrowed based on exaggerated property values?

We have examples of other countries that went through the same cycles. Finland in the early 1990s offers an interesting example.

The first thing that happens when the bubble bursts is bank shares slide rapidly.

This is made easier because, in Ireland, they are the most liquid stocks and most brokers will write options against them – hoping that at some price the banks will buy their own shares back, thus putting a floor on the fall.

In a stampede, this strategy typically backfires. In Norway, again in the early 1990s, following a run on the major banks, the state had to issue a national bank bond to recapitalise its banking system. This means that the citizens of the country bail out the banking system.

If our interest rates are rising at this time, the financial crisis is more damaging.

In a country where the construction industry is operating at full tilt, where 50 per cent of our new builds will be bought to be left vacant and when strains are appearing in the frothy auction market, the existence of ghost estates of vacant houses is a very bad sign.

In the years ahead, these ghost villages, like our famine villages, may stand testament to a great tragedy which, although predicted by concerned observers, was never fully appreciated until the morning the crops failed
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 19, 2010, 10:05:09 AM
And Bertie told him to go kill himself
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 19, 2010, 10:17:55 AM
Quote from: Declan on November 19, 2010, 08:17:03 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqx4E5tq1Bo&feature=player_embedded#! (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqx4E5tq1Bo&feature=player_embedded#!)

About time - Gurdgiev was right and also Karl Dieter on Prime time

IMO Karl Deeter is a spoofer. He wants to sell mortgages on houses and he can't sell them . He was moaning about the banks' new arrangements for people in mortgage trouble on Wednesday. He wants all such mortgages waived. The banks are proposing to cap interest payments to 66% and waive capital repayment for up to 5 years but it wasn't enough for him. who does he think is going to pay for his bailout? 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 19, 2010, 10:34:21 AM
Quote from: seafoid on November 19, 2010, 10:17:55 AM
Quote from: Declan on November 19, 2010, 08:17:03 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqx4E5tq1Bo&feature=player_embedded#! (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqx4E5tq1Bo&feature=player_embedded#!)

About time - Gurdgiev was right and also Karl Dieter on Prime time

IMO Karl Deeter is a spoofer. He wants to sell mortgages on houses and he can't sell them . He was moaning about the banks' new arrangements for people in mortgage trouble on Wednesday. He wants all such mortgages waived. The banks are proposing to cap interest payments to 66% and waive capital repayment for up to 5 years but it wasn't enough for him. who does he think is going to pay for his bailout?
I caught that bit of Prime Time alright, whilst I think that some form of forgiveness will probably be pursued, it's hard to listen to someone with such obvious vested interests as Karl advocate it.  I don't know what the solution is, but kicking it down the road will not solve the problem, unless inflation does take off or we're fcuked out of the euro (not inconceivable).
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 19, 2010, 10:41:29 AM
I
QuoteMO Karl Deeter is a spoofer. He wants to sell mortgages on houses and he can't sell them
Quoteit's hard to listen to someone with such obvious vested interests as Karl advocate it.

Agreed but I tried to separate that from his last sentence which basically said that we should show some backbone and stand up to the banks and the ECB. That's what I was agreeing with and also my "politics" would be at odds with Gurgiev but he spoke a lot of sense about the bail out for the banks as well.
However don't get me going about Jim Power - did you hear him about the moral hazard of debt forgiveness on the mortgage holders - moral hazard me arse his company's new tag line is Friends First People Second.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 19, 2010, 10:44:24 AM
Quote from: thejuice on November 18, 2010, 11:00:42 PM
I just hope that people do wake up and not vote for FF again. My Dad is a Fianna Failer his whole life and swears Charlie Haughey was a great man. I asked him the other day what now?, and he swears that only the people who got us into the mess can get us out of it. I don't like to swear at my own father but I was close to it. God I hope people finally f**king wake up.
I think it might be different this time, younger voters bought into FF last time round because they were the party of the tiger, good times, jobs, holidays....., not because they were anti treaty.  I think FF will struggle to come back from this, they might never achieve top dog status again. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 19, 2010, 10:51:11 AM
Quote from: Bogball XV on November 19, 2010, 10:44:24 AM
Quote from: thejuice on November 18, 2010, 11:00:42 PM
I just hope that people do wake up and not vote for FF again. My Dad is a Fianna Failer his whole life and swears Charlie Haughey was a great man. I asked him the other day what now?, and he swears that only the people who got us into the mess can get us out of it. I don't like to swear at my own father but I was close to it. God I hope people finally f**king wake up.
I think it might be different this time, younger voters bought into FF last time round because they were the party of the tiger, good times, jobs, holidays....., not because they were anti treaty.  I think FF will struggle to come back from this, they might never achieve top dog status again.

I agree. I think people in their 20s and 30s will never forgive FF. It's all about locking in the youth, after all ,so very hard to see FF getting over this.    They are a shower of chancers. Look at their media performances over the last few days. authority shot. Totally out of their depth.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: An Gaeilgoir on November 19, 2010, 12:40:48 PM
Quote from: stephenite on November 19, 2010, 01:49:06 AM
Quote from: Turlough O Carolan on November 19, 2010, 12:42:13 AM
Fianna Fail will be back - probably after a stint of FG and Labour - because at the end of the day the people are Fianna Fail. We have been a one party state for so long and when FF mess up they still get elected, forgiven, with the usual comments "sure if the other crowd got in they'd be just as bad." The people are FF and the people are idiots. It was the farmers with land who were out with big brown signs pointing down bohareens only cows had ever been down before, proclaiming: "Development Land". Then you had every Tom, Dick and Harry who was now suddenly a building developer, bogman Donald Trumps, throwing up ugly housing everywhere, with their American names: Crystal Hollow and all that shite. And the farmers who sold the land - their own fathers had broke their backs on - were buying property in Florida and New York and Portugal, enjoying the status of having an "investment property". And because they were stupid, they overpaid there, just as the wannabe developers overpaid them. You had county councils getting money for every useless house that was built and so planning permission was granted without any thought of the consequences. You had local chambers of commerce, local newspapers, local politicians, priests and other lobby groups campaigning for soulless hotels to be built in some of the most natural scenic wonders in the world and if you dared try and stop it, you'd have been shot. There was uproar in Roscommon when Taisce stopped a big ugly hotel being built near the shores of Lough Key after Roscommon County Council granted permission. Thank God. That Canadian Company - Newfound Consortium went bankrupt recently - and we'd have been left with the whole place destroyed and a big ugly heap of concrete shite for future generations to view. Unfortunately this country is full of cowboys and they don't care what they destroy - whether it be a prehistoric monument or our children's future. However our cowboys are the Blazing Saddles type compared to the cowboys out in Europe and when they rode into town there was only one winner. Their stupidity was laid bare for all the world to see. They actually succeeded in doing what the likes of the racist Punch Magazine was never able to do: makes fools of Paddy on the world stage.

Turlough, that is a fantastic post.

Thats it In a nutshell. Great post.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: An Gaeilgoir on November 19, 2010, 12:54:59 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 19, 2010, 10:51:11 AM
Quote from: Bogball XV on November 19, 2010, 10:44:24 AM
Quote from: thejuice on November 18, 2010, 11:00:42 PM
I just hope that people do wake up and not vote for FF again. My Dad is a Fianna Failer his whole life and swears Charlie Haughey was a great man. I asked him the other day what now?, and he swears that only the people who got us into the mess can get us out of it. I don't like to swear at my own father but I was close to it. God I hope people finally f**king wake up.
I think it might be different this time, younger voters bought into FF last time round because they were the party of the tiger, good times, jobs, holidays....., not because they were anti treaty.  I think FF will struggle to come back from this, they might never achieve top dog status again.

I agree. I think people in their 20s and 30s will never forgive FF. It's all about locking in the youth, after all ,so very hard to see FF getting over this.    They are a shower of chancers. Look at their media performances over the last few days. authority shot. Totally out of their depth.

I have to agree, My house growing up was FF house and i always voted FF, but never again, i personally can never forgive them for the shambles that our country now finds its self in. As for my parents they feel the same way, FF are finished as a party i reckon, as in 30 years time, young families like mine will still be paying off the legacy of this debacle, although listening to the radio yesterday it was said that over 1500 people were out canvassing for them in Donegal, most of them were from outside the county, lemmings and a cliff spring to mind.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hound on November 19, 2010, 01:18:02 PM
Quote from: An Gaeilgoir on November 19, 2010, 12:54:59 PM
I have to agree, My house growing up was FF house and i always voted FF, but never again, i personally can never forgive them for the shambles that our country now finds its self in. As for my parents they feel the same way, FF are finished as a party i reckon, as in 30 years time, young families like mine will still be paying off the legacy of this debacle, although listening to the radio yesterday it was said that over 1500 people were out canvassing for them in Donegal, most of them were from outside the county, lemmings and a cliff spring to mind.

But rightly or wrongly we regularly vote for people, not parties.

I am sure there will be lots of Donegal people who want a FG/Lab government, but who will vote for O'Domhnall of FF in this election - because its him they want representing them in Dublin. The FG candidate seems totally out of his depth and the Lab candidate is an imbecile. The fact that they couldnt muster a decent candidate between them in what should be a great opportunity for the people to have their say, might be an indicator of their incompetence.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Billys Boots on November 19, 2010, 01:35:40 PM
QuoteBut rightly or wrongly we regularly vote for people, not parties.

Folks, it's our fault (not Cowen's, not Bertie's, not Lenihan's) and until we stop passing the buck and take responsibility for our vote, elections will change nothing.  FFS, the morons are going to elect Doherty in Donegal - what's that going to change?  Luckily there'll be a General Election in January and he won't get long in Kildare St.  ::)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 19, 2010, 02:01:04 PM
Quote from: Billys Boots on November 19, 2010, 01:35:40 PM
QuoteBut rightly or wrongly we regularly vote for people, not parties.

Folks, it's our fault (not Cowen's, not Bertie's, not Lenihan's) and until we stop passing the buck and take responsibility for our vote, elections will change nothing.  FFS, the morons are going to elect Doherty in Donegal - what's that going to change?  Luckily there'll be a General Election in January and he won't get long in Kildare St.  ::)
he'll probably get in again in January though.  In fairness to Doherty, he is quite articulate and seems to be a fairly decent candidate. 
Sinn Fein seem to be attracting most of the decent new candidates, why is that?

As you say the people do bear some responsibility, but not for voting for the gombeens on the list, it's for allowing these gombeens to be the only options. 

How many of us would or have ever considered running for office?  If stories I've heard are correct, it was only a matter of turning up to a few local cumman meetings in a row before you'd a decent chance of being selected for a council post in some counties.  Local meetings attracted maybe 4 or 5 people, it wouldn't have been too hard to secure a nomination there, unless you were a particularly obnoxious individual, although that didn't do many of our incumbents any harm.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 19, 2010, 02:22:44 PM
Does this sound familiar??

Riffling through Hoover's papers, one sometimes has the strange feeling that the President looked upon the Depression as a public relations problem -- that he believed the nightmare would go away if only the image of American business could be polished up and set in the right light.

Faith was an end in itself; "lack of business confidence" was a cardinal sin. Hoover's first reaction to the slump which followed the Crash had been to treat it as a psychological phenomenon. He himself had chosen the word "Depression" because it sounded less frightening than "panic" or "crisis."

In December 1929 he declared that "conditions are fundamentally sound." Three months later he said the worst would be over in sixty days; at the end of May he predicted that the economy would be back to normal in the autumn; in June the market broke sharply, yet he told a delegation which called to plead for a public works project, "Gentleman, you have come sixty days too late. The Depression is over."

Already his forecasts were being flung back to him by critics, but in his December 2, 1930, message to Congress -- a lame duck Republican Congress; the Democrats had just swept the off-year elections -- he said that "the fundamental strength of the economy is unimpaired."

At about the same time the International Apple Shippers Association, faced with a surplus of apples, decided to sell them on credit to jobless men for resale at a nickel each. Overnight there were shivering apple sellers everywhere.

Asked about them, Hoover replied: "Many people have left their jobs for the more profitable one of selling apples."

Reporters were caustic, and the President was stung. By now he was beginning to show signs of the most ominous trait of embattled Presidents; as his secretary Theodore Joslin was to note in his memoirs, Hoover was beginning to regard some criticism "as unpatriotic."

Nevertheless, he persevered, pondering new ways of waging psychological warfare. "What this country needs," he told Christopher Morley, "is a great poem." To singer Rudy Vallee, he said in the Spring of 1932, "If you can write a song that will make people forget the Depression, I will give you a medal."
Valee recorded "Brother ,Can You Spare A Dime?"
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 19, 2010, 02:53:41 PM
Quote from: Declan on November 19, 2010, 02:22:44 PM
Does this sound familiar??


Asked about them, Hoover replied: "Many people have left their jobs for the more profitable one of selling apples."


That is frighteningly familiar.

I think the pronouncements this week were akin to the apple selling quote above.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on November 19, 2010, 03:28:07 PM
QuoteHow many of us would or have ever considered running for office?  .

Thats a fair question BBXV. I very much doubt if the financially literate posters on here would get elected. Indeed we would probably be told it was accountants who got the country into the mess. WTF do people throw accountants and bankers into the one pot.  Has anyone considered civil service though  ? Can we send Lone Shark into sort out the DoF.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 19, 2010, 03:38:13 PM
This is a massive collapse and the whole political system is right in the middle of it. As are most of the financial models used to run the country since 1997.  So many institutions have failed the people who in many cases were themselves deluded.

So I wouldn't be surprised to see things changing over the next few years.   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 19, 2010, 03:42:06 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on November 19, 2010, 03:28:07 PM
QuoteHow many of us would or have ever considered running for office?  .

Thats a fair question BBXV. I very much doubt if the financially literate posters on here would get elected. Indeed we would probably be told it was accountants who got the country into the mess. WTF do people throw accountants and bankers into the one pot.  Has anyone considered civil service though  ? Can we send Lone Shark into sort out the DoF.
As someone who understand how to calculate risks. probabilities and the like, LS would not be welcome in the DOF.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 19, 2010, 03:45:36 PM
Historian Diarmuid Ferriter (in the Guardian) articulates what a lot of people think and asks why the taoiseach hasn't taken five minutes to go on TV and address the nation. He wouldn't change our finances, but it would, he says "give an indication that the government thinking of them [voters] as well".

"I think it's devastating genuinely. I know we can talk about the loss of sovereignty, but this is the culmination of two years of complete lack of direction of leadership and it's terrible to think that if it had been approached with these qualities we might not have had to be dragged kicking and screaming into this [rescue].

Why is there no coherent state of the nation speech?

"And it is not extraordinary that, given the scale of the crisis, that we still have not had a coherent statement from the government to the citizens to tell us what is going on. "It would not make a difference in material terms but it would sooth peoples nerves and give an indication that the government is thinking of them as well. "If you look back in history and the whole idea of the Republic was building support through mobilising the so-called men of no property.

"And to me the biggest irony is that we wasted it all gambling on property. That greed around property, there is a very sad symmetry here. From a country that fought land wars to a country that has been destroyed by landlords worse than the 19th century, destroyed by land owners and speculators. "
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Peter Solan the Great on November 19, 2010, 06:18:23 PM
The untold story of this crisis, and one which may never be told, is the question of what sort of pressure Germany, France and (maybe) Britain put on Ireland two years ago to 100% guarantee the bond holders of the Irish banks. The Irish government at the time was under no legal, moral or economic obligation to give this guarantee - it could have guaranteed domestic deposits and renegotiated the external bonds, which is quite reasonable as all the main Irish banks (all private companies) were insolvent.

The result was that the Irish taxpayer was suddenly in hock to the tune of perhaps 65 Billion euro, borrowed by private banks, from banks primarily in Germany, France and the UK. The German and UK banks in particular at that time were also of course horribly exposed to the US subprime problem and the UK property market. There is little doubt that several very large German banks would have gone under if the Irish government hadn't given the guarantee. And RBS was already at that time in severe trouble (it is one of the biggest bondholders).

It seems likely that enormous pressure was put on the Irish government behind the scenes to underwrite these losses. The result was that the Irish taxpayer, who up to then was under the impression that the country had been running balanced budgets for the previous 15 years or so, found themselves with unpayable debts. And now the Germans and British whine about having to pay to protect Ireland, when it was the Irish taxpayers that were forking out to prevent the collapse of European banks.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 19, 2010, 06:54:50 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on November 19, 2010, 10:34:21 AM
Quote from: seafoid on November 19, 2010, 10:17:55 AM
Quote from: Declan on November 19, 2010, 08:17:03 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqx4E5tq1Bo&feature=player_embedded#! (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqx4E5tq1Bo&feature=player_embedded#!)

About time - Gurdgiev was right and also Karl Dieter on Prime time

IMO Karl Deeter is a spoofer. He wants to sell mortgages on houses and he can't sell them . He was moaning about the banks' new arrangements for people in mortgage trouble on Wednesday. He wants all such mortgages waived. The banks are proposing to cap interest payments to 66% and waive capital repayment for up to 5 years but it wasn't enough for him. who does he think is going to pay for his bailout?
I caught that bit of Prime Time alright, whilst I think that some form of forgiveness will probably be pursued, it's hard to listen to someone with such obvious vested interests as Karl advocate it.  I don't know what the solution is, but kicking it down the road will not solve the problem, unless inflation does take off or we're fcuked out of the euro (not inconceivable).

Small article in the Indo business section today, Trichet hints at interest rate rises earlier than expected.

http://www.independent.ie/business/european/surprise-as-trichet-hints-at-possible-early-rise-in-interest-rates-2427226.html (http://www.independent.ie/business/european/surprise-as-trichet-hints-at-possible-early-rise-in-interest-rates-2427226.html)

The PIGS couldn't possibly cope with interest rate rises. Debts that look like tsunamis now will look like the Big Bang if the ECB rate starts rising. We need inflation but the Germans and French will raise rates to stop it.

Two tier euro coming?

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 19, 2010, 07:00:00 PM
Got this mail today


I don't see how any could disagree with the premise that the condition of the
government/state run balance sheets are presently of 'national importance'.

Article 27 of the constitution provides for 'proposal(s) of such national
importance that the will of the people thereon ought to be ascertained.'

Who doubts that the mechanism of debt relief will be written in a bill and quickly
passed by both houses in the 'national interest'.

The catch is that before signing the bill into law, a majority of the Seanad and
at least one third of the Dail have to sign a petition, present it to the President,
within four days of the bill having been passed.

The President can then decide that, yes, the people should be heard from and
the bill should go before the people.

In light of the IMF record on past national bailouts, this something the people
should know about and be required to consider.

We can expect cuts in government departments, primarily in those that look
after the public good. Socially, environmentally, agriculturally, educationally.

The people are to go through this because the government was instructed
to acquire the debt of about 850 borrowers at a pricetag of E73b.

People need to know that none of this is being done in their interest. In fact,
it is being done against their interest, without their full knowledge and
without their consent.

Is it possible to rally the country's thinkers to help people realize what is
going on?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on November 19, 2010, 07:54:32 PM
Mary your time has come.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Evil Genius on November 19, 2010, 10:08:59 PM
Quote from: Peter Solan the Great on November 19, 2010, 06:18:23 PM
The untold story of this crisis, and one which may never be told, is...

...It seems likely that enormous pressure was put on the Irish government behind the scenes to underwrite these losses. The result was that the Irish taxpayer, who up to then was under the impression that the country had been running balanced budgets for the previous 15 years or so, found themselves with unpayable debts. And now the Germans and British whine about having to pay to protect Ireland, when it was the Irish taxpayers that were forking out to prevent the collapse of European banks.

Now have I got this right?

For 800 years, everything bad which ever happened to poor Oireland was the fault of Da Brits.

Now it's the fault of the Brits and the Germans.

And to think of how yiz stayed so neutral during World War II the Emergency, when half the rest of the world was ganging up agin the Huns.

Still, at least Irish hands are clean - no-one can ever accuse any of your own of doing anything which might screw the economy... ::)

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on November 19, 2010, 10:24:37 PM
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c1236fbc-f41e-11df-886b-00144feab49a.html#axzz15llES0gr

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on November 19, 2010, 11:37:01 PM
Quote from: Evil Genius on November 19, 2010, 10:08:59 PM
Quote from: Peter Solan the Great on November 19, 2010, 06:18:23 PM
The untold story of this crisis, and one which may never be told, is...

...It seems likely that enormous pressure was put on the Irish government behind the scenes to underwrite these losses. The result was that the Irish taxpayer, who up to then was under the impression that the country had been running balanced budgets for the previous 15 years or so, found themselves with unpayable debts. And now the Germans and British whine about having to pay to protect Ireland, when it was the Irish taxpayers that were forking out to prevent the collapse of European banks.

Now have I got this right?

For 800 years, everything bad which ever happened to poor Oireland was the fault of Da Brits.

Now it's the fault of the Brits and the Germans.

And to think of how yiz stayed so neutral during World War II the Emergency, when half the rest of the world was ganging up agin the Huns.

Still, at least Irish hands are clean - no-one can ever accuse any of your own of doing anything which might screw the economy... ::)

Well we where doing just fine until the Brits turned up  :D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on November 20, 2010, 08:27:39 AM
Quote from: Declan on November 19, 2010, 07:00:00 PM
Got this mail today


I don't see how any could disagree with the premise that the condition of the
government/state run balance sheets are presently of 'national importance'.

Article 27 of the constitution provides for 'proposal(s) of such national
importance that the will of the people thereon ought to be ascertained.'

Who doubts that the mechanism of debt relief will be written in a bill and quickly
passed by both houses in the 'national interest'.

The catch is that before signing the bill into law, a majority of the Seanad and
at least one third of the Dail have to sign a petition, present it to the President,
within four days of the bill having been passed.

The President can then decide that, yes, the people should be heard from and
the bill should go before the people.

In light of the IMF record on past national bailouts, this something the people
should know about and be required to consider.

We can expect cuts in government departments, primarily in those that look
after the public good. Socially, environmentally, agriculturally, educationally.

The people are to go through this because the government was instructed
to acquire the debt of about 850 borrowers at a pricetag of E73b.

People need to know that none of this is being done in their interest. In fact,
it is being done against their interest, without their full knowledge and
without their consent.

Is it possible to rally the country's thinkers to help people realize what is
going on?

This idea was put to the people for consideration for the NAMA legislation. IT wasn't entertained in the any of the main political circles, the media or in the living rooms or on the bar stools anywhere in the Country. It will not happen. Following Nice and Lisbon our rulers will not allow for referendum were the think they can by-pass the constitution without uproar. While it may be unconstitutional to implement NAMA and call on the IMF it is only a problem if they are callled to boot on it. If however, there was a concerned citizen who felt the Constitution should be upheld perhaps they could take the Government to Court over the issue as Pearse Doherty did with the By election. But, just like the By election, untill someone does this it will be at the whim of the Government to decide.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: fearbrags on November 21, 2010, 03:29:26 AM
http://www.youtube.com/user/jbyeats
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: stephenite on November 21, 2010, 11:33:17 AM
Quote from: fearbrags on November 21, 2010, 03:29:26 AM
http://www.youtube.com/user/jbyeats

Where's that man from?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: give her dixie on November 21, 2010, 03:01:17 PM
The Republic of Ireland's finance minister has recommended that his country makes a formal application for aid to shore up its finances.

Brian Lenihan put no figure on how much may be needed, but told RTE radio it would be "tens of billions" of euros.

A bail-out from the EU, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) had been widely expected.

The government is meeting later to finalise a four-year plan to cut its budget deficit.

Only after this was approved by the potential lenders, could the bail-out go ahead.

Mr Lenihan said: I have no doubt the plan will be convincing."

The country has been coming under pressure from European neighbours to apply for a bailout - which they hope will ease pressure on other eurozone members facing mounting debts and deficits.

'Damaging impact'

Turning to the EU, ECB and IMF for help is a turnaround for the Irish government, which earlier this week denied such a package was being negotiated or was necessary.

The Republic is currently spending about 19bn euros (£16bn; $26bn) more than it receives in taxes and revenues, but its crisis-hit banks also need a massive injection of back-up funds.

The Sunday Times speculated that the Republic's bail-out package would be worth up to 120bn euros.

This compares with the 110bn euros Greece is set to receive over three years.

However, Mr Lenihan said the total would "not be three figures".

He added that the "bulk of the money" would be "a contingency fund which stands behind the banking system" and said that any money borrowed would be at far lower rates than the country could get on the money markets.

The finance minister added that it would not be a criteria of the external assistance that it raised the country's low corporation tax rate, which stands at 12.5% - much lower than the EU average.

The Sunday Telegraph reported that some of the biggest US companies had warned the Republic of the "damaging impact" if the corporation tax was raised.

Microsoft, Hewlett Packard, Merrill Lynch and Intel were among those to warn of the risk to the country's "ability to win and retain investment", the paper said.

Bank buyers?

Two key areas will form the basis of the cabinet's discussions of the four-year plan, says BBC business correspondent Joe Lynam - the country's precarious fiscal situation which has pushed the budget deficit to 32% of gross domestic product, and how best to prop up the country's enfeebled banking sector which has been frozen out of international markets and all but nationalised.

The Sunday Telegraph also reported that advisers for the Irish government had been talking to banks it felt may be in a position to buy large stakes in either Anglo Irish Bank or Allied Irish Bank - in both of which the government holds stakes.

On Friday, Allied Irish Banks said 13bn euros of deposits had been withdrawn this year, mostly from businesses and institutions - implying that the bank does not face a run by ordinary depositors.

Although the Irish government claims to be fully funded until the middle of next year, it has provided a blanket guarantee to the Irish banks, some of whom are now finding it impossible to borrow money in the markets.

On Thursday, the Irish government admitted for the first time that it may need outside help.

Previously the government had said it did not need any financial support from the European Union and IMF
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 21, 2010, 03:52:31 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1121/economy2.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1121/economy2.html)

Noonan expects dramatic IMF announcement


I hope it is more dramatic than Cowen's statement last week telling the world everything was ok.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 21, 2010, 06:10:35 PM
David Davin-Power says on the news that An Taoiseach will make an announcement 'after this bulletin' probably around 1900.

He will probably tell us that the IMF are not coming nor does anyone want them to.

I would recommend sitting away from objects that might damage your tv if thrown at it.

Edit: and they are still claiming it is not a bailout but a rescue fund.  ::)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Main Street on November 21, 2010, 06:18:48 PM
(http://www.leftycartoons.com/wp-content/uploads/imf_argentina_color.png)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 21, 2010, 07:33:09 PM
Websites, Sky and BBC reporting that EU ministers have approved a bailout for Ireland. Cowen's statement now delayed till 2000 as An Taoiseach is apparently having dinner. I hope he has some humble pie for desert.

It would be nice if an Irish media organisation would tell us what was going on.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 21, 2010, 07:59:14 PM
Jodie Ginsberg (Reuters) on twitter saying a statement at 2015. Well done RTE.

Figure to be 'less than €100 Billion'.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Square Ball on November 21, 2010, 08:20:11 PM
BBC News 24 stating statement will be issued shortly
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: pintsofguinness on November 21, 2010, 08:29:27 PM
Quote from: Square Ball on November 21, 2010, 08:20:11 PM
BBC News 24 stating statement will be issued shortly
surely Cowen is finished with the dinner by now!  or does he have to watch xfactor too?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 21, 2010, 08:31:23 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on November 21, 2010, 08:29:27 PM
Quote from: Square Ball on November 21, 2010, 08:20:11 PM
BBC News 24 stating statement will be issued shortly
surely Cowen is finished with the dinner by now!  or does he have to watch xfactor too?

Giving statement now.

'We are doing what everyone knew we were doing and what we denied we were doing and we will all be grand. That is all"

€6 Billion budget coming. 4 year plan blah blah.

Can't tell us how much we are looking for or how long it will be for (EU say 3 years  ::))
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 21, 2010, 08:45:41 PM
Important people all say that we did everything right blah blah...........

blah blah blah stability............blah blah a 'facility' (bailout is a pejorative term) from the IMF.........serious issues to be addressed......
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: An Gaeilgoir on November 21, 2010, 08:55:11 PM
Vincent Browne is loving the international attention and is sticking it to Cowen now. Great Television, a pity about the context.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: pintsofguinness on November 21, 2010, 08:56:47 PM
So can someone put it in point to point format of what the deal is?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 21, 2010, 09:03:29 PM
We are getting an I don't know amount of money ('10s of Billions' - a trillion is tens of Billion too).
We will pay it back over an I don't know period of time.
We will pay an I don't know rate of interest.
The banks will be restructured into I don't know entities.
They may have been all nationalised but of course I don't know after listening to that waffle.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: pintsofguinness on November 21, 2010, 09:06:28 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 21, 2010, 09:03:29 PM
We are getting an I don't know amount of money ('10s of Billions' - a trillion is tens of Billion too).
We will pay it back over an I don't know period of time.
We will pay an I don't know rate of interest.
The banks will be restructured into I don't know entities.
They may have been all nationalised but of course I don't know after listening to that waffle.
Sounds great  :-\
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Cde on November 21, 2010, 09:29:13 PM
the Greek prime minister, when announcing the Greek bailout made more sense than Cowan  and he was speaking Greek
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 21, 2010, 09:56:35 PM
Seen on Facebook:

Sir Bob Geldof has just Confirmed that a fundraising concert for Ireland will be held in Ethiopia at Christmas.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: orangeman on November 21, 2010, 09:59:48 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 21, 2010, 09:56:35 PM
Seen on Facebook:

Sir Bob Geldof has just Confirmed that a fundraising concert for Ireland will be held in Ethiopia at Christmas.

class
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of bank bondholders
Post by: bcarrier on November 21, 2010, 10:00:42 PM
Muppet you need a new title ...

Isnt the gist of it - Anglo bail out = 40BN already provided. AIB/BOI/ Others has not been  adequately  provided for but say twice anglo =80bn -10bn already provided =70bn. It is actually a bailout for bank bondholders . The anglo ones were:

Aberdeen Asset Managers (London) Ltd.
AGICAM
Aktia Asset Management Oy Ab
Aletti Gestielle SGR S.p.A.
AllianceBernstein (UK) Limited
Allianz Global Invetsors France SA
AmpegaGerling Investment GmbH
Anima SGR S.p.A
Arca SGR S.p.A.
Assenagon Asset Management SA
Aviso Zeta Bank AG
Aviva Investors France SA
Aviva Investors Global Services Limited
AXA Investment Manasgers Paris

Baloise Asset Management Schweiz AG
Banca Finnat Euramerica SA
Bank Sarasin & Cie AG (Basel)
Bankinter Gestión de Activis, SAS, SGIIIc
BanSabadell Inversión, SA, SGIIC
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Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Maguire01 on November 21, 2010, 10:03:04 PM
On BBC News now (BBC1) - protester on way to hospital after being hit by Ministerial car!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: INDIANA on November 21, 2010, 10:06:05 PM
any banking experts able to decipher what this funding for banks actually means
which banks will be left at the end of this
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 21, 2010, 10:12:03 PM
Reuters saying €80 - €90 Billion. Interest alone on that would be €4 - 5 Billion p/a.

How exactly are we supposed to pay it back running a deficit?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 21, 2010, 10:22:57 PM
If the ECB stops providing liquidity the banks won't be long burning their way through E100bn
given they have already racked up E120bn since they can't get anyone to buy their bonds.

I think the biggest question is fairness - if the banks are restructured how much will the bondholders chip in ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 21, 2010, 10:27:01 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 21, 2010, 10:12:03 PM
Reuters saying €80 - €90 Billion. Interest alone on that would be €4 - 5 Billion p/a.

How exactly are we supposed to pay it back running a deficit?

Muppet

A big chunk of the money is what the Government would have borrowed anawez over the next 3 years if those pesky bond markets hadn't closed themselves off . So the issue relates to how much the banks draw down and that depends on the ECB stance on liquidity.  If someone walks into AIB and wants his 5bn deposit back AIB have to get the money from the ECB. And if the ECB says enough is enough it's a new ball game.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 21, 2010, 10:30:28 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 21, 2010, 10:27:01 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 21, 2010, 10:12:03 PM
Reuters saying €80 - €90 Billion. Interest alone on that would be €4 - 5 Billion p/a.

How exactly are we supposed to pay it back running a deficit?

Muppet

A big chunk of the money is what the Government would have borrowed anawez over the next 3 years if those pesky bond markets hadn't closed themselves off . So the issue relates to how much the banks draw down and that depends on the ECB stance on liquidity.  If someone walks into AIB and wants his 5bn deposit back AIB have to get the money from the ECB. And if the ECB says enough is enough it's a new ball game.

I thought that is what has just happened?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: spanner on November 21, 2010, 10:54:35 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 21, 2010, 09:56:35 PM
Seen on Facebook:

Sir Bob Geldof has just Confirmed that a fundraising concert for Ireland will be held in Ethiopia at Christmas.

And what about Bono?
No chance of him starting to pay tax in Ireland again and help his fellow Irish out?
Nah.  Didn't think so.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 21, 2010, 10:57:28 PM
Quote from: spanner on November 21, 2010, 10:54:35 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 21, 2010, 09:56:35 PM
Seen on Facebook:

Sir Bob Geldof has just Confirmed that a fundraising concert for Ireland will be held in Ethiopia at Christmas.

And what about Bono?
No chance of him starting to pay tax in Ireland again and help his fellow Irish out?
Nah.  Didn't think so.

He does pay tax in Ireland. A hell of a lot more than you do.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bigtogs on November 21, 2010, 10:57:37 PM
Quote from: spanner on November 21, 2010, 10:54:35 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 21, 2010, 09:56:35 PM
Seen on Facebook:

Sir Bob Geldof has just Confirmed that a fundraising concert for Ireland will be held in Ethiopia at Christmas.

And what about Bono?
No chance of him starting to pay tax in Ireland again and help his fellow Irish out?
Nah.  Didn't think so.
At least he did not clean her out!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hanging too good for the men that did!!!!!!! Bertie rekons he won his money on the horses!!!!!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: spanner on November 21, 2010, 10:59:27 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 21, 2010, 10:57:28 PM
Quote from: spanner on November 21, 2010, 10:54:35 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 21, 2010, 09:56:35 PM
Seen on Facebook:

Sir Bob Geldof has just Confirmed that a fundraising concert for Ireland will be held in Ethiopia at Christmas.

And what about Bono?
No chance of him starting to pay tax in Ireland again and help his fellow Irish out?
Nah.  Didn't think so.

He does pay tax in Ireland. A hell of a lot more than you do.

Have you any proof of that. The last I heard was that his tax avoidance affairs were holed up in Holland.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: spanner on November 21, 2010, 11:01:03 PM
Quote from: bigtogs on November 21, 2010, 10:57:37 PM
Quote from: spanner on November 21, 2010, 10:54:35 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 21, 2010, 09:56:35 PM
Seen on Facebook:

Sir Bob Geldof has just Confirmed that a fundraising concert for Ireland will be held in Ethiopia at Christmas.

And what about Bono?
No chance of him starting to pay tax in Ireland again and help his fellow Irish out?
Nah.  Didn't think so.
At least he did not clean her out!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hanging too good for the men that did!!!!!!! Bertie rekons he won his money on the horses!!!!!!

Bertie has been very quiet this last few months. You don't suppose he has bought an island near Kerry?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 21, 2010, 11:02:05 PM
Quote from: spanner on November 21, 2010, 10:59:27 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 21, 2010, 10:57:28 PM
Quote from: spanner on November 21, 2010, 10:54:35 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 21, 2010, 09:56:35 PM
Seen on Facebook:

Sir Bob Geldof has just Confirmed that a fundraising concert for Ireland will be held in Ethiopia at Christmas.

And what about Bono?
No chance of him starting to pay tax in Ireland again and help his fellow Irish out?
Nah.  Didn't think so.

He does pay tax in Ireland. A hell of a lot more than you do.

Have you any proof of that. The last I heard was that his tax avoidance affairs were holed up in Holland.

That would be the gombeen version of the facts. You are the one making serious allegation, you provide the proof.

What you may be talking about it that U2 and many others pay tax on money earned outside the state, in Holland. But don't worry about facts.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bigtogs on November 21, 2010, 11:02:39 PM
Quote from: spanner on November 21, 2010, 11:01:03 PM
Quote from: bigtogs on November 21, 2010, 10:57:37 PM
Quote from: spanner on November 21, 2010, 10:54:35 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 21, 2010, 09:56:35 PM
Seen on Facebook:

Sir Bob Geldof has just Confirmed that a fundraising concert for Ireland will be held in Ethiopia at Christmas.

And what about Bono?
No chance of him starting to pay tax in Ireland again and help his fellow Irish out?
Nah.  Didn't think so.
At least he did not clean her out!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hanging too good for the men that did!!!!!!! Bertie rekons he won his money on the horses!!!!!!

Bertie has been very quiet this last few months. You don't suppose he has bought an island near Kerry?
He cant remember
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: spanner on November 21, 2010, 11:03:54 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 21, 2010, 11:02:05 PM
Quote from: spanner on November 21, 2010, 10:59:27 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 21, 2010, 10:57:28 PM
Quote from: spanner on November 21, 2010, 10:54:35 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 21, 2010, 09:56:35 PM
Seen on Facebook:

Sir Bob Geldof has just Confirmed that a fundraising concert for Ireland will be held in Ethiopia at Christmas.

And what about Bono?
No chance of him starting to pay tax in Ireland again and help his fellow Irish out?
Nah.  Didn't think so.

He does pay tax in Ireland. A hell of a lot more than you do.

Have you any proof of that. The last I heard was that his tax avoidance affairs were holed up in Holland.

That would be the gombeen version of the facts. You are the one making serious allegation, you provide the proof.

What you may be talking about it that U2 and many others pay tax on money earned outside the state, in Holland. But don't worry about facts.

http://www.makebonopaytax.com/index.php?page=26
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bigtogs on November 21, 2010, 11:04:17 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 21, 2010, 11:02:05 PM
Quote from: spanner on November 21, 2010, 10:59:27 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 21, 2010, 10:57:28 PM
Quote from: spanner on November 21, 2010, 10:54:35 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 21, 2010, 09:56:35 PM
Seen on Facebook:

Sir Bob Geldof has just Confirmed that a fundraising concert for Ireland will be held in Ethiopia at Christmas.

And what about Bono?
No chance of him starting to pay tax in Ireland again and help his fellow Irish out?
Nah.  Didn't think so.

He does pay tax in Ireland. A hell of a lot more than you do.

Have you any proof of that. The last I heard was that his tax avoidance affairs were holed up in Holland.

That would be the gombeen version of the facts. You are the one making serious allegation, you provide the proof.

What you may be talking about it that U2 and many others pay tax on money earned outside the state, in Holland. But don't worry about facts.
Fact is country is in very bad shape!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 21, 2010, 11:05:18 PM
Quote from: spanner on November 21, 2010, 11:03:54 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 21, 2010, 11:02:05 PM
Quote from: spanner on November 21, 2010, 10:59:27 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 21, 2010, 10:57:28 PM
Quote from: spanner on November 21, 2010, 10:54:35 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 21, 2010, 09:56:35 PM
Seen on Facebook:

Sir Bob Geldof has just Confirmed that a fundraising concert for Ireland will be held in Ethiopia at Christmas.

And what about Bono?
No chance of him starting to pay tax in Ireland again and help his fellow Irish out?
Nah.  Didn't think so.

He does pay tax in Ireland. A hell of a lot more than you do.

Have you any proof of that. The last I heard was that his tax avoidance affairs were holed up in Holland.

That would be the gombeen version of the facts. You are the one making serious allegation, you provide the proof.

What you may be talking about it that U2 and many others pay tax on money earned outside the state, in Holland. But don't worry about facts.

http://www.makebonopaytax.com/index.php?page=26

This might be hard to get past your prejudice.

Bono pays tax in Ireland on his earnings in Ireland just like me and you.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: spanner on November 21, 2010, 11:05:58 PM
Quote from: bigtogs on November 21, 2010, 11:02:39 PM
Quote from: spanner on November 21, 2010, 11:01:03 PM
Quote from: bigtogs on November 21, 2010, 10:57:37 PM
Quote from: spanner on November 21, 2010, 10:54:35 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 21, 2010, 09:56:35 PM
Seen on Facebook:

Sir Bob Geldof has just Confirmed that a fundraising concert for Ireland will be held in Ethiopia at Christmas.

And what about Bono?
No chance of him starting to pay tax in Ireland again and help his fellow Irish out?
Nah.  Didn't think so.
At least he did not clean her out!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hanging too good for the men that did!!!!!!! Bertie rekons he won his money on the horses!!!!!!

Bertie has been very quiet this last few months. You don't suppose he has bought an island near Kerry?
He cant remember
Ah!  He's got Gerry Adams syndrome.  ;D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: spanner on November 21, 2010, 11:06:50 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 21, 2010, 11:05:18 PM
Quote from: spanner on November 21, 2010, 11:03:54 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 21, 2010, 11:02:05 PM
Quote from: spanner on November 21, 2010, 10:59:27 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 21, 2010, 10:57:28 PM
Quote from: spanner on November 21, 2010, 10:54:35 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 21, 2010, 09:56:35 PM
Seen on Facebook:

Sir Bob Geldof has just Confirmed that a fundraising concert for Ireland will be held in Ethiopia at Christmas.

And what about Bono?
No chance of him starting to pay tax in Ireland again and help his fellow Irish out?
Nah.  Didn't think so.

He does pay tax in Ireland. A hell of a lot more than you do.

Have you any proof of that. The last I heard was that his tax avoidance affairs were holed up in Holland.

That would be the gombeen version of the facts. You are the one making serious allegation, you provide the proof.

What you may be talking about it that U2 and many others pay tax on money earned outside the state, in Holland. But don't worry about facts.

http://www.makebonopaytax.com/index.php?page=26

This might be hard to get past your prejudice.

Bono pays tax in Ireland on his earnings in Ireland just like me and you.

Not prejudice.  Just envy.
;D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 21, 2010, 11:08:31 PM
Quote from: spanner on November 21, 2010, 11:06:50 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 21, 2010, 11:05:18 PM
Quote from: spanner on November 21, 2010, 11:03:54 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 21, 2010, 11:02:05 PM
Quote from: spanner on November 21, 2010, 10:59:27 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 21, 2010, 10:57:28 PM
Quote from: spanner on November 21, 2010, 10:54:35 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 21, 2010, 09:56:35 PM
Seen on Facebook:

Sir Bob Geldof has just Confirmed that a fundraising concert for Ireland will be held in Ethiopia at Christmas.

And what about Bono?
No chance of him starting to pay tax in Ireland again and help his fellow Irish out?
Nah.  Didn't think so.

He does pay tax in Ireland. A hell of a lot more than you do.

Have you any proof of that. The last I heard was that his tax avoidance affairs were holed up in Holland.

That would be the gombeen version of the facts. You are the one making serious allegation, you provide the proof.

What you may be talking about it that U2 and many others pay tax on money earned outside the state, in Holland. But don't worry about facts.

http://www.makebonopaytax.com/index.php?page=26

This might be hard to get past your prejudice.

Bono pays tax in Ireland on his earnings in Ireland just like me and you.

Not prejudice.  Just envy.
;D

If you want people like Bono to pay tax on all his earnings in Ireland you will bankrupt the state (again) as you will risk forcing the MNCs to do the same in their countries.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: spanner on November 21, 2010, 11:14:50 PM
I see the politicking and canvassing has begun for the by election in South Donegal.
Lenihan is now saying that it is NOT a bail-out or a Rescue Fund.
It is "External Assistance".
::)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on November 22, 2010, 12:08:06 AM
Quote from: muppet on January 19, 2009, 06:58:18 PM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on January 19, 2009, 06:20:49 PM
Lads, hypothetically speaking, what would happen if the very worst came to the very worst and the country goes down a similar road to Iceland? Anyone read anything on the impacts on their country since their collapse?

Iceland aren't in the Euro so it is hard to know. We would devalue our currency now as we did in 1992 except we cant as we are in the Euro. If we left the Euro we would be Iceland so I dont see that happening.

There are dangerous storm clouds gathering though.

We started with a credit crunch and it caused a property market collapse, which continues. The banks are still struggling with access to credit and liquidity. All the time the bricks and mortar which the loans they gave out were secured against falls in worth bringing on the spectre of negative equity.

Possible things to happen next:

* The Goverment could go ahead as it is hinting and reduce public pay while at the same time increasing taxes. That will put an end to any chance of the property market bottoming out as many new people wont be able to afford their mortgages.
* There will be strikes all over the place and more businesses will close. Then we may even see street protests.
* I dont see how the government can last for long if any of that happens so expect an election or two.
* If all that happens we may need the IMF at which point I would probably emigrate.

Anyone else see a light at the end of this tunnel?

Nearly two years old. Amazingly very few strikes and incredibly no elections, but the IMF worst case scenario has happened. We still haven't been told exactly how bad the banks are that it triggered an IMF bailout.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: thejuice on November 22, 2010, 12:26:12 AM
(http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc4/hs973.snc4/76612_456507604354_514474354_5557908_959497_n.jpg)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: whiskeysteve on November 22, 2010, 09:37:57 AM
where does this end? Portguese 10 yr bonds have broke 7% in recent times though stabilised for the moment. From reading a few economic blogs it seems it is only a matter of them before they require bailout.

Then lies Spain with 20% unemployment and more pertinently 1 trillion euro of debt.

If Spain goes there is simply not enough money in the IMF/EU fund. And thats before you consider Italy...

How would Ireland be funded if the bigger countries go under?? Am i missing something??
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 22, 2010, 09:52:33 AM
If Spain gets sucked in there are 2 choices

-Print hundreds of billions of Euros  to pay off the debts of the banks and to hell with the inflation consequences
-Break up the Eurozone and have son of Lehman Brothers 
The global financial system is going to crash anyway ....
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 22, 2010, 10:13:34 AM
Gene Kerrigan: Elite stand ready to serve new overlords
Cowen's cheerleaders aren't mourning lost sovereignty but their own loss of influence, writes Gene Kerrigan

Sunday November 21 2010
Shame, humiliation, embarrassment. Public and private figures lined up to disclose their emotional turmoil over the past few days. Oddly enough, I didn't truly feel even a shadow of any of those responses as the IMF took over the running of the economy.

Anger, maybe? That's true. But let's be honest, I've been seething since the week Mr Cowen and Mr Lenihan gave the banks the disastrous blanket guarantee.

Here's the question. Are you any worse off this week than you were last week? Or even last year?

Yes, yes, yes. I know we're all supposed to be traumatised because the Government has thrown away the self-determination for which generations of Irish patriots struggled etc etc etc. Was it for this, asked a melodramatic Irish Times editorial, that the men of 1916 fought?

Get a grip. If self-determination is so important (and it is), perhaps we should ask who this 'self' is who has been determining how the country is run?

Let's leave aside the regularity with which Mr Cowen and Mr Lenihan have had to scutter over to Brussels to take their riding instructions from the EU. Leave aside the fact that every major decision had to be okayed by the likes of EU Economic Commissioner Olli Rehn. Leave aside the slavish deference to the interests of unidentified bondholders.

Within this republic, there's a layer of well-off people who have had an inordinate and unaccountable influence on the running of the country. Golden circles, if you will. They are surrounded by cheerleaders -- professionals and media fans -- who amplify their every wish.

For decades politicians have had blatantly unhealthy relationships with wealthy people. They take money, they discuss policy. There are battalions of lobbyists who make a very good living conveying to the politicians the explicit wishes of the folks who fund their parties.

This is considered okay, as long as no one leaves a memo lying around that says, "Hey, Big Boy, thanks for the donation! I hereby give you my word that I'll corruptly act in your interests."

It's true that Fianna Fail handed over the country to the bankers and the developers and the gamblers. But, come on, let's not pretend that was a secret. One result of the donations and the lobbying was the light-touch regulation that led to the credit bubble and the economic collapse. Again, let's not pretend the lack of effective regulation was a secret. It was a founding principle of the Progressive Democrats, eagerly adopted by Fianna Fail. And widely applauded.

The comfortable classes were supported in their aims by the regiments of professionals who made fortunes from the boom. And they were ferociously defended by the media elite. To question the demands of 'the risk takers' and the alleged 'wealth creators' was unpatriotic and socialistic.

Regulation was denounced as a product of the 'nanny state'. Anyone looking for functional regulation was denounced for trying to tie the hands of entrepreneurs with 'red tape'.

Have we forgotten all that? It's a bit rich, now that Mr Chopra has arrived in town, to pretend that a handful of reckless politicians crippled our sovereignty.

Where's the shame among all those who assured us that Brian Cowen is an intellectual powerhouse? Every time he spouted two coherent sentences he was deluged with orgasmic approval. And even as Cowen's star faded, the same people assured us that Brian Lenihan was an even greater intellectual powerhouse -- even as he fervidly and ridiculously assured us again and again that we'd 'turned the corner'.

Given his illness, Lenihan's personal courage and commitment to his job are not in doubt. It's his conservative politics that haven't been up to it. When the bubble burst, the crisis was so big that it needed a truly radical response. Instead, for over two years we've had business as usual -- the politicians seeking above all to protect the privileges of the comfortable classes. Thus came the fatal blanket guarantee of the banks.

The decision to socialise the losses of the banks, to protect the rich and pass the tab to those who use the public health and public education facilities was applauded at the time.

Central Bank Governor Patrick Honohan assured us the tens of billions blown on the failed rescue of dead banks was 'affordable'. Politicians told us it was the government deficit that was the real problem, and deflating the real economy was the answer. The opposite was the truth -- the government deficit was based on an actual economy. It arose from services and businesses and structural development -- the basis for growth. It was the wasteful effort to protect the structural inequalities -- epitomised by the dead banks and their crazed bankers -- that did for the economy.

Let me quote Mr Rehn's admirably frank reminder: "We need to recall that sovereign debt has not been at the origin of the crisis. Rather, private debt has become public debt. The financial sector has misallocated resources in the economy and then stopped working."

We've been told that the arrival of the IMF has set De Valera and Collins spinning in their graves. You mean, De Valera didn't spin like a Hotpoint when Haughey was lying about taking millions from his sugar daddies? Or when servile, ingratiating Fianna Fail ministers queued up to claim they believed Bertie won all that money on a horse? You mean Collins rested in peace as Enda and his insipid front bench lined up to back Fianna Fail's plan to socialise the losses of the elite and force the poorest to pay for the golden circle's gambling?

Much of the shame, humiliation and embarrassment on display over the past few days comes from people who felt they had some influence within that setup. Media types, and the comfortable classes who knew their concerns were never far from the minds of Brian Lenihan and Mary Harney. It's frustrating for them that they lack similar clout with the likes of Mr Chopra and his mates.

These people will get over their emotional upset.

We've been told the arrival of the IMF is like the Germans marching into Paris in 1940. Eh, not quite. Mr Chopra is no Nazi, he's a technician. The IMF are here to safeguard the euro, and the interests of German and French banks. And I can't see the comfortable classes imitating the heroic maquis and taking to the hills.

Yes, people will die from IMF policies. They'll die on the same hospital waiting lists they'd have died on as a result of Mr Cowen's policies. Just as people died prematurely in the 1980s, when the comfortable classes used the corrupt banks to hide their tax frauds, and the politicians took 'tough decisions' with the health and jobs of the disposable classes.

The comparison with an occupied population, as in Paris in 1940, has one element of validity. In such circumstances, certain circles find it sensible and productive to collaborate with the new powers-that-be (in the interests of stability, don't you know). With an agenda of their own to protect, aiming to survive the recession with much of their fortunes intact (all the better to build the new Ireland), they'll point out where the troublesome elements are to be found, and the disposable citizens.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 22, 2010, 10:43:35 AM
A short term solution for the euro. An absolutely monumental disaster for Ireland if we ever draw any of this money down for the Banks.

Ray Kinsella (ex Irish central bank and IMF) was interviewed this morning on Bloomberg. Painted a very scary scenario for both Ireland and the Euro zone in general. His conclusions

The bailout won't work and the contagion will spread to other Euro zone countries. He door stepped Rehn when Rehn was in Dublin. "Why are you proposing taking 6billion out of the Irish economy which will lead to even bigger problems"? Rehn refused to answer him.
We have just agreed to take on another 100 billion in sovereign debt.

Our debt levels will now be 200 billion plus by the end of 2011. This will cost us 8 billion a year to servive, without reducing the amount owed.

We earn 30 billion or less a year, meaning debt servicing will take up over 25%of our annual budget.

We are currently devising plans to take another 6 billion out of our economy.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: An Gaeilgoir on November 22, 2010, 10:44:33 AM
The Golden Circle indeed. To listen to A. Fanny (Sindo Editor) on the late late the other night was sickening. He was shiteing on about this great country blah blah blah. Nobody asked him about his pal's visits to the paper and his soft interviews, to help him maintain his grip on power. It is indeed not only the fault of the bankers that we have ended up where we are now.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 22, 2010, 11:02:52 AM
Quote from: Declan on November 22, 2010, 10:43:35 AM
A short term solution for the euro. An absolutely monumental disaster for Ireland if we ever draw any of this money down for the Banks.  Ray Kinsella (ex Irish central bank and IMF) was interviewed this morning on Bloomberg. Painted a very scary scenario for both Ireland and the Euro zone in general. His conclusions

The bailout won't work and the contagion will spread to other Euro zone countries. He door stepped Rehn when Rehn was in Dublin. "Why are you proposing taking 6billion out of the Irish economy which will lead to even bigger problems"? Rehn refused to answer him. We have just agreed to take on another 100 billion in sovereign debt. Our debt levels will now be 200 billion plus by the end of 2011. This will cost us 8 billion a year to servive, without reducing the amount owed. We earn 30 billion or less a year, meaning debt servicing will take up over 25%of our annual budget. We are currently devising plans to take another 6 billion out of our economy.

The 100bn includes money the government would have borrowed anyway over the next 3 years- 13bn next year then say 9 after and then 4 after than. There may be no other option but to let AIB go to the wall.

I agree that the plan looks stupid but let's see what the IMF say. They are going over all the books and  they don't have the green jersey. I expect a lot of sickening revelations when they reveal their findings. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: glens abu on November 22, 2010, 11:28:20 AM
Greens to hold press conference at 11.30.Will they walk?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Shamrock Shore on November 22, 2010, 11:45:35 AM
Hope they do.

This government is a blight on our country and while I don't relish a General Election on St. Stephen's Day I do think the people of Ireland need an opportunity to vent.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hardy on November 22, 2010, 11:51:46 AM
Sounds like it. Apparently "F**k you Deputy Stagg" has been tweeting that there's a "big announcement" coming.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 22, 2010, 11:52:03 AM
They would be doing the State some service.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 22, 2010, 11:53:12 AM
Quote from: Hardy on November 22, 2010, 11:51:46 AM
Sounds like it. Apparently "F**k you Deputy Stagg" has been tweeting that there's a "big announcement" coming.

Meath could restore some honour by booting out the FF muppets it elected last time. It's all linked to the all-Ireland QF shambles. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hardy on November 22, 2010, 11:54:47 AM
They've said set a date now for a general election in the second half of January. (Or else we walk now, seems to be the implication).
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 22, 2010, 11:55:54 AM
By then of course their ministerial pensions are safe!!!

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hardy on November 22, 2010, 11:57:20 AM
It's a real sleeveen move on so many levels.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 22, 2010, 11:58:25 AM
QuoteIt's a real sleeveen move on so many levels.
Spot on Hardy
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Billys Boots on November 22, 2010, 12:26:41 PM
Quote from: Declan on November 22, 2010, 11:58:25 AM
QuoteIt's a real sleeveen move on so many levels.
Spot on Hardy

What should we expect from a pig but a grunt.  Judging from the FF post, this Govt are unlikely to get the trouncing they deserve.  However, it would appear that the electorate are going to get the trouncing they deserve.  ::)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: give her dixie on November 22, 2010, 12:43:50 PM
The Irish Times - Monday, November 22, 2010

Minister and priest say pray for economy
A CO WEXFORD priest has joined a Cabinet minister in calling for prayers for a successful outcome to the economic crisis.

Minister for Social Protection Éamon Ó Cuív said prayers were needed because "not everything is in the control of the Government".

He told Highland Radio in Donegal that prayer is "very powerful".

"I believe over the next three weeks there are three things we have to do. There is a budget, the four-year plan and to bring stability to our own fiscal situation and try and pray that this is the end of it."

In an interview with presenter Shaun Doherty, Mr Ó Cuív continued: "Yes, prayer is very powerful because in the end of the day we have to keep at it until we get to stable waters.

"We had thought the previous measures would be sufficient, but because of international . . ."

Mr Doherty interrupted: "The Minister is saying that we should be praying that things get better?"

Mr Ó Cuív responded: "I did say pray. I think people understand the colloquialism because in the end of the day, not everything is in control of the Government."

Although he had not heard of the Minister's exhortation, Fr John Carroll, a curate in Barntown church in Co Wexford, expressed a similar sentiment yesterday.

At 11am Mass, he read out a prayer he had composed which begins: "God our Father continue to make your presence felt among us at this moment in history."

The prayer, which has been posted on the parish's Facebook page, went on to ask that God would "steady our nerve in these days and point out to us the shortcomings of panic and fear alone".

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 22, 2010, 12:48:24 PM
Quote from: Hardy on November 22, 2010, 11:54:47 AM
They've said set a date now for a general election in the second half of January. (Or else we walk now, seems to be the implication).
I don't understand why they feel that by passing the budget first, they're doing the country a great service.

I was told a long time ago that they'd walk when they felt that they might be able to recover some ground with people because of the brave and principled decision they'd taken to walk - I don't know who's been advising them, but this aint going to win them any brownie points either.

The election isn't cut and dried either, there's an amazing reticence to vote for FG floating around, I suspect they're going to regret that missed opportunity to change leader during the summer.  Taoiseach Gilmore??
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 22, 2010, 12:54:01 PM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on November 22, 2010, 09:37:57 AM
where does this end? Portguese 10 yr bonds have broke 7% in recent times though stabilised for the moment. From reading a few economic blogs it seems it is only a matter of them before they require bailout.

Then lies Spain with 20% unemployment and more pertinently 1 trillion euro of debt.

If Spain goes there is simply not enough money in the IMF/EU fund. And thats before you consider Italy...

How would Ireland be funded if the bigger countries go under?? Am i missing something??

It's definitely a very worrying time WS, if this stopped at ireland and stabilised then we wouldn't be in too bad a state.  I don't know if it will work though, there's no obvous reason as to why it would.  The rest of the PIGS aren't in much better shape than us, in fact, but for the guarantee, we'd be in a relatively healthy state.

What happens when the euro collapses?  What might save it is that it's hardly in the interests of any speculators to see such a currency collapse as the worldwide panic would wipe out incredible amounts of wealth.

As a very prescient Lone Shark told us 2 years ago (when gold was about $900 an ounce) buy gold, and not the certificates. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: give her dixie on November 22, 2010, 01:52:48 PM
BBC 24 showing live coverage of protests at Leinster House.
People trying to get into the building.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 22, 2010, 02:03:31 PM
Quote from: give her dixie on November 22, 2010, 01:52:48 PM
BBC 24 showing live coverage of protests at Leinster House.
People trying to get into the building.

To do what, steal some of the debt?

I think we should start listening (as we should have done a long time ago) very carefully to the likes of Kelly and Kinsella. The Government and Irish media are treating them as some sort of financial extremists but they are the closest thing we have to people who understand what is happening.

Lenihan insists that he has done everything right and that the experts agree with him. The evidence suggests the complete opposite yet we are still stuck with Lenihan and his experts and their woeful decision making.

Portugal is in the news again and Spain is looming over the horizon. I am thinking we shouldn't actually touch any EU/IMF money for as long as possible. The announcement alone might keeps the banks open long enough to restructure.

Today's Sesame Street is brought to you by the number €90 Billion and the word:

con·ta·gion  (kn-tjn)
n.
1.
a. Disease transmission by direct or indirect contact.
b. A disease that is or may be transmitted by direct or indirect contact; a contagious disease.
c. The direct cause, such as a bacterium or virus, of a communicable disease.
2. Psychology The spread of a behavior pattern, attitude, or emotion from person to person or group to group through suggestion, propaganda, rumor, or imitation.
3. A harmful, corrupting influence: feared that violence on television was a contagion affecting young viewers.
4. The tendency to spread, as of a doctrine, influence, or emotional state.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on November 22, 2010, 02:07:40 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 22, 2010, 02:03:31 PM
Quote from: give her dixie on November 22, 2010, 01:52:48 PM
BBC 24 showing live coverage of protests at Leinster House.
People trying to get into the building.

To do what, steal some of the debt?


It's owned by the public and if they want to protest inside it then fair play to them. I hope they get in there. I'd like to see the place demolished, safely.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 22, 2010, 02:13:27 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on November 22, 2010, 02:07:40 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 22, 2010, 02:03:31 PM
Quote from: give her dixie on November 22, 2010, 01:52:48 PM
BBC 24 showing live coverage of protests at Leinster House.
People trying to get into the building.

To do what, steal some of the debt?


It's owned by the public and if they want to protest inside it then fair play to them. I hope they get in there. I'd like to see the place demolished, safely.

I think it should be turned into a museum, a sort of house of social, economic and political horrors.

The Dáil should be moved to somewhere along the Shannon. All our TDs could be put up in the many ghost estates in Roscommon which the State already owns, thus removing the need for any allowances for Ivor Callelly and co to abuse.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Franko on November 22, 2010, 02:18:00 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on November 22, 2010, 02:07:40 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 22, 2010, 02:03:31 PM
Quote from: give her dixie on November 22, 2010, 01:52:48 PM
BBC 24 showing live coverage of protests at Leinster House.
People trying to get into the building.

To do what, steal some of the debt?


It's owned by the public and if they want to protest inside it then fair play to them. I hope they get in there. I'd like to see the place demolished, safely.

So you'd have to fork out for a new one??  Strange logic.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 22, 2010, 02:19:31 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 22, 2010, 02:03:31 PMI think we should start listening (as we should have done a long time ago) very carefully to the likes of Kelly and Kinsella. The Government and Irish media are treating them as some sort of financial extremists but they are the closest thing we have to people who understand what is happening.

Kinsella has never impressed me tbh.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 22, 2010, 02:20:32 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on November 22, 2010, 02:07:40 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 22, 2010, 02:03:31 PM
Quote from: give her dixie on November 22, 2010, 01:52:48 PM
BBC 24 showing live coverage of protests at Leinster House.
People trying to get into the building.

To do what, steal some of the debt?


It's owned by the public and if they want to protest inside it then fair play to them. I hope they get in there. I'd like to see the place demolished, safely.
i suppose that'd help provide stimulus for the building industry!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 22, 2010, 02:23:11 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on November 22, 2010, 02:19:31 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 22, 2010, 02:03:31 PMI think we should start listening (as we should have done a long time ago) very carefully to the likes of Kelly and Kinsella. The Government and Irish media are treating them as some sort of financial extremists but they are the closest thing we have to people who understand what is happening.

Kinsella has never impressed me tbh.

He is not very articulate and for example didn't come across very well on Prime Time when Rabbitte memorably ranted at Pat Carey. The problem is that while Rabbitte expertly delivered a rant that night, Kinsella mumbled sometimes incoherently, but what Kinsella was saying was alarming in the extreme. He said this bailout would 'break the economy'. Sadly we all remember the programme for the rant.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Main Street on November 22, 2010, 02:26:54 PM
Generally people in Ireland in vote on sentiment, not on the rationale of party policy.
The biggest problem has been the lack of an effective alternative strategy to the default acceptance of what constitutes sovereign debt.  But by a quirk of what passes for democracy, FG/Lab will be able to claim a mandate for their policies after the election. At best the difference in strategy between all the political parties may lie between how the beans are gathered from the people to pay off the new sovereign debt mountain.

I see that the Iceland constitution had a clause in it, whereby the people could reject a government bill in a referendum. That bill directly relating to how the Government were committing the State to a certain level of debt. The government were mandated to go back and renegotiate the debt. This is an extreme measure to protect the people from a government acting against the common perception and also the constitutionally protected interests of the State.

None of the political parties had a strategy how to deal with the Bank collapse. None of them have offered effective alternatives to the governments plan.  Fine Gael in particular are content just to use the opportunity to get back into power. Labour will have little more effect than the Greens have had with FF, or the Liberal party have in their coalition in the UK.
Many people will be voting to oppose Fianna Fail. They will not be voting for an alternative outlined clear plan on how to deal with this sovereign debt. If FG were serious about a clear plan, any plan (not necessarily a best plan) then they would have held onto George Lee.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on November 22, 2010, 02:33:55 PM
Quote from: Franko on November 22, 2010, 02:18:00 PM

So you'd have to fork out for a new one??  Strange logic.

Feel good factor. It would lift the entire country. Besides, political reform should cut the TD by half and reduce staff by80%. No need for it. They can meet in St Lukes.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 22, 2010, 02:35:22 PM
Quote from: Main Street on November 22, 2010, 02:26:54 PM
Generally people in Ireland in vote on sentiment, not on the rationale of party policy.
The biggest problem has been the lack of an effective alternative strategy to the default acceptance of what constitutes sovereign debt.  But by a quirk of what passes for democracy, FG/Lab will be able to claim a mandate for their policies after the election. At best the difference in strategy between all the political parties may lie between how the beans are gathered from the people to pay off the new sovereign debt mountain.

I see that the Iceland constitution had a clause in it, whereby the people could reject a government bill in a referendum. That bill directly relating to how the Government were committing the State to a certain level of debt. The government were mandated to go back and renegotiate the debt. This is an extreme measure to protect the people from a government acting against the common perception and also the constitutionally protected interests of the State.

None of the political parties had a strategy how to deal with the Bank collapse. None of them have offered effective alternatives to the governments plan.  Fine Gael in particular are content just to use the opportunity to get back into power. Labour will have little more effect than the Greens have had with FF, or the Liberal party have in their coalition in the UK.
Many people will be voting to oppose Fianna Fail. They will not be voting for an alternative outlined clear plan on how to deal with this sovereign debt. If FG were serious about a clear plan, any plan (not necessarily a best plan) then they would have held onto George Lee.

Not 100% fair. At an early stage FG had proposed a 'good bank' rather than the bad bank (NAMA) strategy. This looks like what will now happen with what's left of the banks here. Also it is not reasonable to criticise non-government proposals as it must be obvious that they, like the rest of us, were not given the full facts on how bad things were. Their policies were conjured in an information vacuum. Even FF are claiming this now even though everyone else would have had a lot less info than them.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on November 22, 2010, 02:36:24 PM
Quote from: Main Street on November 22, 2010, 02:26:54 PM
Generally people in Ireland in vote on sentiment, not on the rationale of party policy.
The biggest problem has been the lack of an effective alternative strategy to the default acceptance of what constitutes sovereign debt.  But by a quirk of what passes for democracy, FG/Lab will be able to claim a mandate for their policies after the election. At best the difference in strategy between all the political parties may lie between how the beans are gathered from the people to pay off the new sovereign debt mountain.

I see that the Iceland constitution had a clause in it, whereby the people could reject a government bill in a referendum. That bill directly relating to how the Government were committing the State to a certain level of debt. The government were mandated to go back and renegotiate the debt. This is an extreme measure to protect the people from a government acting against the common perception and also the constitutionally protected interests of the State.

None of the political parties had a strategy how to deal with the Bank collapse. None of them have offered effective alternatives to the governments plan.  Fine Gael in particular are content just to use the opportunity to get back into power. Labour will have little more effect than the Greens have had with FF, or the Liberal party have in their coalition in the UK.
Many people will be voting to oppose Fianna Fail. They will not be voting for an alternative outlined clear plan on how to deal with this sovereign debt. If FG were serious about a clear plan, any plan (not necessarily a best plan) then they would have held onto George Lee.

What part of the FG plan did you think wasn't effective? Or the SF plan for that matter?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 22, 2010, 04:58:38 PM
Zap, or anyone else, why do most of the Dáil protestors seem to be carrying Sinn Féin placards?

Have their leaders considered the impression this has on potential future/new voters. I have no problem with people protesting, and in particular outside the Dáil when the Government lied to us for a week, however the official Sinn Féin placards and banners give the impression of a party very comfortable with anarchy. I would understand if they were excluded in some way but they actually have elected TDs in the Dáil. By all means have an organised Sinn Féin rally at the gates, addressed by their TDs, but storming the gates and more 'scuffles' with Gardai do not help them.

IMHO to really grow their support down south they have to mature as an organisation.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Franko on November 22, 2010, 05:03:08 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on November 22, 2010, 02:33:55 PM
Quote from: Franko on November 22, 2010, 02:18:00 PM

So you'd have to fork out for a new one??  Strange logic.

Feel good factor. It would lift the entire country. Besides, political reform should cut the TD by half and reduce staff by80%. No need for it. They can meet in St Lukes.

Hmmm - not so sure...
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: INDIANA on November 22, 2010, 05:03:57 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 22, 2010, 04:58:38 PM
Zap, or anyone else, why do most of the Dáil protestors seem to be carrying Sinn Féin placards?

Have their leaders considered the impression this has on potential future/new voters. I have no problem with people protesting, and in particular outside the Dáil when the Government lied to us for a week, however the official Sinn Féin placards and banners give the impression of a party very comfortable with anarchy. I would understand if they were excluded in some way but they actually have elected TDs in the Dáil. By all means have an organised Sinn Féin rally at the gates, addressed by their TDs, but storming the gates and more 'scuffles' with Gardai do not help them.

IMHO to really grow their support down south they have to mature as an organisation.

SF are vermin. Hopefully the demise of FF wont be accompanied in a rise in popularity in organised scum. Bit like FF really.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hardy on November 22, 2010, 05:07:12 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 22, 2010, 04:58:38 PMa party very comfortable with anarchy
:D  The 2010 version of "a slightly constitutional party"?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 22, 2010, 05:08:48 PM
Quote from: INDIANA on November 22, 2010, 05:03:57 PM
SF are vermin. Hopefully the demise of FF wont be accompanied in a rise in popularity in organised scum. Bit like FF really.

I wasn't trying to trigger, nor do I agree with comments like this. Some of my family would be quite sympathetic to SF.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: INDIANA on November 22, 2010, 05:11:06 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 22, 2010, 05:08:48 PM
Quote from: INDIANA on November 22, 2010, 05:03:57 PM
SF are vermin. Hopefully the demise of FF wont be accompanied in a rise in popularity in organised scum. Bit like FF really.

I wasn't trying to trigger, nor do I agree with comments like this. Some of my family would be quite sympathetic to SF.

Not really bothered either way. Hell would freeze over before I would vote people with their track record in atrocities into office. No better then FF. They are vermin.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hardy on November 22, 2010, 05:21:44 PM
18 minutes and counting ...
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Lecale2 on November 22, 2010, 05:26:15 PM
God that Joan Bruton is hard to listen to.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 22, 2010, 05:28:31 PM
Quote from: Lecale2 on November 22, 2010, 05:26:15 PM
God that Joan Bruton is hard to listen to.

Joan, Lenihan and Vincent Browne - Apres Match version

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WHTNTptUEe8 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WHTNTptUEe8)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Canalman on November 22, 2010, 05:32:58 PM
Quote from: INDIANA on November 22, 2010, 05:11:06 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 22, 2010, 05:08:48 PM
Quote from: INDIANA on November 22, 2010, 05:03:57 PM
SF are vermin. Hopefully the demise of FF wont be accompanied in a rise in popularity in organised scum. Bit like FF really.

I wasn't trying to trigger, nor do I agree with comments like this. Some of my family would be quite sympathetic to SF.

Not really bothered either way. Hell would freeze over before I would vote people with their track record in atrocities into office. No better then FF. They are vermin.


Looks like there is noone out there for you to vote for then  Indiana. Do a little scratching and you will find atrocities associated with all major political parties down south.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 22, 2010, 05:44:00 PM
Quote from: Canalman on November 22, 2010, 05:32:58 PM
Quote from: INDIANA on November 22, 2010, 05:11:06 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 22, 2010, 05:08:48 PM
Quote from: INDIANA on November 22, 2010, 05:03:57 PM
SF are vermin. Hopefully the demise of FF wont be accompanied in a rise in popularity in organised scum. Bit like FF really.

I wasn't trying to trigger, nor do I agree with comments like this. Some of my family would be quite sympathetic to SF.

Not really bothered either way. Hell would freeze over before I would vote people with their track record in atrocities into office. No better then FF. They are vermin.


Looks like there is noone out there for you to vote for then  Indiana. Do a little scratching and you will find atrocities associated with all major political parties down south.

The Greens ? 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Canalman on November 22, 2010, 05:53:09 PM
Fair point Seafóid.............. can't remember The Greens having shot or blown up anyone  in the last 100 years or so. The Greens it will have to be for our idealistic fellow poster.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: INDIANA on November 22, 2010, 05:54:20 PM
Quote from: Canalman on November 22, 2010, 05:32:58 PM
Quote from: INDIANA on November 22, 2010, 05:11:06 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 22, 2010, 05:08:48 PM
Quote from: INDIANA on November 22, 2010, 05:03:57 PM
SF are vermin. Hopefully the demise of FF wont be accompanied in a rise in popularity in organised scum. Bit like FF really.

I wasn't trying to trigger, nor do I agree with comments like this. Some of my family would be quite sympathetic to SF.

Not really bothered either way. Hell would freeze over before I would vote people with their track record in atrocities into office. No better then FF. They are vermin.


Looks like there is noone out there for you to vote for then  Indiana. Do a little scratching and you will find atrocities associated with all major political parties down south.
True but this is about burying FF. So I'll vote FG even though I dont like them. This isnt about local issues. This is about burying thiese scoundrels so they never surface again. Fortunately we're not that stuck that its a choice between SF and FF. If it ever reaches that stage I'll happily set sail on my raft.
The thought of Adams entering the Dail makes my skin crawl.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Minder on November 22, 2010, 06:17:53 PM
Quote from: Hardy on November 22, 2010, 05:21:44 PM
18 minutes and counting ...

Until Nally Stand enters the arena?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Rossfan on November 22, 2010, 06:25:03 PM
Quote from: INDIANA on November 22, 2010, 05:54:20 PM
I'll vote FG even though I dont like them.

The party that gave us Ballyseedy, the Blueshirts with their Fascist salutes and O'Duffy going off to "fight" for Franco's cause.
The thought of them cnuts in Government makes MY skin crawl ....but they are the only real alternative.
However I presume they will only be an Administration not a Government as they will only be running things for the ECB/IMF/Brit Chancellor.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: tyssam5 on November 22, 2010, 06:28:07 PM
Quote from: INDIANA on November 22, 2010, 05:54:20 PM
Quote from: Canalman on November 22, 2010, 05:32:58 PM
Quote from: INDIANA on November 22, 2010, 05:11:06 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 22, 2010, 05:08:48 PM
Quote from: INDIANA on November 22, 2010, 05:03:57 PM
SF are vermin. Hopefully the demise of FF wont be accompanied in a rise in popularity in organised scum. Bit like FF really.

I wasn't trying to trigger, nor do I agree with comments like this. Some of my family would be quite sympathetic to SF.

Not really bothered either way. Hell would freeze over before I would vote people with their track record in atrocities into office. No better then FF. They are vermin.


Looks like there is noone out there for you to vote for then  Indiana. Do a little scratching and you will find atrocities associated with all major political parties down south.
True but this is about burying FF. So I'll vote FG even though I dont like them. This isnt about local issues. This is about burying thiese scoundrels so they never surface again. Fortunately we're not that stuck that its a choice between SF and FF. If it ever reaches that stage I'll happily set sail on my raft.
The thought of Adams entering the Dail makes my skin crawl.

Are you Gay Byrne?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: INDIANA on November 22, 2010, 06:28:54 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on November 22, 2010, 06:25:03 PM
Quote from: INDIANA on November 22, 2010, 05:54:20 PM
I'll vote FG even though I dont like them.

The party that gave us Ballyseedy, the Blueshirts with their Fascist salutes and O'Duffy going off to "fight" for Franco's cause.
The thought of them cnuts in Government makes MY skin crawl ....but they are the only real alternative.
However I presume they will only be an Administration not a Government as they will only be running things for the ECB/IMF/Brit Chancellor.

F*** it . It beats the current lot. Photographers are gathering at Phoneix Park. Govt will be dissolved tonight
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: trileacman on November 22, 2010, 07:27:41 PM
The past few days have made me sick to my stomach.

British reporters crawling the streets of Dublin, detailing our "embarrassing" bailout. Have watched all 3 major British news reports tonight (sorry I mean C4, bbc and itv) and it is cringe worthy the treatment of this story. Even worse is the bi-lateral agreement, spoken of in the houses of parliament.

What would Dev say or think now? Collins? Pearse or Connolly? The freedom he and others imparted on the Irish people now to be removed and to see the Irish go cap in hand to the doors of Westminster makes me deeply deeply disappointed. This is a dark time for this nation.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: pintsofguinness on November 22, 2010, 07:37:35 PM
Quote from: trileacman on November 22, 2010, 07:27:41 PM
The past few days have made me sick to my stomach.

British reporters crawling the streets of Dublin, detailing our "embarrassing" bailout. Have watched all 3 major British news reports tonight (sorry I mean C4, bbc and itv) and it is cringe worthy the treatment of this story. Even worse is the bi-lateral agreement, spoken of in the houses of parliament.

What would Dev say or think now? Collins? Pearse or Connolly? The freedom he and others imparted on the Irish people now to be removed and to see the Irish go cap in hand to the doors of Westminster makes me deeply deeply disappointed. This is a dark time for this nation.

Pearse and Connolly would have been turning in their graves long before now!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 22, 2010, 07:40:54 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on November 22, 2010, 07:37:35 PM
Quote from: trileacman on November 22, 2010, 07:27:41 PM
The past few days have made me sick to my stomach.

British reporters crawling the streets of Dublin, detailing our "embarrassing" bailout. Have watched all 3 major British news reports tonight (sorry I mean C4, bbc and itv) and it is cringe worthy the treatment of this story. Even worse is the bi-lateral agreement, spoken of in the houses of parliament.

What would Dev say or think now? Collins? Pearse or Connolly? The freedom he and others imparted on the Irish people now to be removed and to see the Irish go cap in hand to the doors of Westminster makes me deeply deeply disappointed. This is a dark time for this nation.

Pearse and Connolly would have been turning in their graves long before now!

Berite Ahern would be turning in his closet.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: INDIANA on November 22, 2010, 07:50:49 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 22, 2010, 07:40:54 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on November 22, 2010, 07:37:35 PM
Quote from: trileacman on November 22, 2010, 07:27:41 PM
The past few days have made me sick to my stomach.

British reporters crawling the streets of Dublin, detailing our "embarrassing" bailout. Have watched all 3 major British news reports tonight (sorry I mean C4, bbc and itv) and it is cringe worthy the treatment of this story. Even worse is the bi-lateral agreement, spoken of in the houses of parliament.

What would Dev say or think now? Collins? Pearse or Connolly? The freedom he and others imparted on the Irish people now to be removed and to see the Irish go cap in hand to the doors of Westminster makes me deeply deeply disappointed. This is a dark time for this nation.

Pearse and Connolly would have been turning in their graves long before now!

Berite Ahern would be turning in his closet.
dont you mean fridge
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hardy on November 22, 2010, 07:55:30 PM
Quote from: Minder on November 22, 2010, 06:17:53 PM
Quote from: Hardy on November 22, 2010, 05:21:44 PM
18 minutes and counting ...

Until Nally Stand enters the arena?
:)
He must have been held up.
(No pun intended and no reference to SF's history of baling out of banks implied).
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Evil Genius on November 22, 2010, 10:34:28 PM
Quote from: trileacman on November 22, 2010, 07:27:41 PM
The past few days have made me sick to my stomach.

British reporters crawling the streets of Dublin, detailing our "embarrassing" bailout. Have watched all 3 major British news reports tonight (sorry I mean C4, bbc and itv) and it is cringe worthy the treatment of this story. Even worse is the bi-lateral agreement, spoken of in the houses of parliament.

What would Dev say or think now? Collins? Pearse or Connolly? The freedom he and others imparted on the Irish people now to be removed and to see the Irish go cap in hand to the doors of Westminster makes me deeply deeply disappointed. This is a dark time for this nation.
Have I got this straight, then?

You are not so concerned by the fact that "the Emperor has no clothes" (the country has no money).

Nor are you even so concerned that a Small Boy is pointing out his nakedness.

It's the fact that that Small Boy is a Brit which really bugs you.

Jayz, how "sick" will you be when the Emperor has to turn round and ask said Small Boy if he can borrow one of his old ganseys?

Oh wait... :o
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 22, 2010, 10:37:06 PM
economist, Jim Rogers, reiterates to the world what we all know, that this bailout is for Bankers and Politicians only and will enslave the population for generations. Video Clip of interview on Russia Today http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1tk2IFsUtJc (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1tk2IFsUtJc).

Here's the alternative
In this interview with the RT, Jim Rogers says what everyone except a few bankers and corrupt (soon to be unemployed) politicians grasp: namely, that Ireland should go bankrupt. Instead, the government is forcing the country into a tough spot, where social tensions are flaring, and could erupt into an all out social conflict, confirming that the interests of its people is the last thing the Irish government cares about, and is only concerned about preserving what is now virtually proven to be a failed model (with even JPM saying so tongue in cheekly), and prevent losses at all major German and English banks. Quote Rogers: "It would teach everybody a good lesson, and in the end Europe would be stronger for it, and the EUR would be stronger... You can not spend staggering amounts of money that you don't have of other people's money that you don't have because somebody has to pay the piper. This is ludicrous. This will cripple the Irish economy for years to come. In the future Ireland will be crippled because everything they earn will go to pay off old debt. There is no reason why taxpayers around Europe or in Ireland should pay for other people's mistakes. The bondholders and the stockholders of banks should lose money"... So simple, yet so irrelevant when dealing with a dying economic model.


Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: spanner on November 23, 2010, 12:22:06 AM

Why shouldn't the Germans help us out, we left the lights on.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 23, 2010, 12:23:06 AM
Quote from: spanner on November 23, 2010, 12:22:06 AM

Why shouldn't the Germans help us out, we left the lights on.

Yea but nobody's at home.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: give her dixie on November 23, 2010, 01:04:02 AM
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2010/nov/22/ecb-ireland-bailout-argentina


"Ireland should 'do an Argentina"

The Irish people expected to pay in austerity cuts for their banks' sins have another option. Reject the ECB and IMF, ditch the euro


When a firefighter or medical team make a rescue, the person is usually better-off as a result. This is less clear when the rescuer is the European Central Bank (ECB) or the IMF.

Ireland is currently experiencing a 14.1% unemployment rate. As a result of bailout conditions that will require more cuts in government spending and tax increases, the unemployment rate is almost certain to go higher. The Irish people are likely to wonder what their economy would look like if they had not been rescued.

The pain being inflicted on Ireland by the ECB/IMF is completely unnecessary. If the ECB committed itself to make loans available to Ireland at low interest rates, a mechanism entirely within its power, then Ireland would have no serious budget problem. Its huge projected deficits stem primarily from the combination of high interest costs on its debt, and the result of operating at levels of economic output that are well below full employment – both outcomes that can be pinned largely on the ECB.

It is worth remembering that Ireland's government was a model of fiscal probity prior to the economic meltdown. It had run large budget surpluses for the 5 years prior to the onset of the crisis. Ireland's problem was certainly not out of control government spending; it was a reckless banking system that fueled an enormous housing bubble. The economic wizards at the ECB and the IMF either couldn't see the bubble or didn't think it was worth mentioning.

The failure of the ECB or IMF to take steps to rein in the bubble before the crisis has not made these international financial institutions shy about using a heavy hand in imposing conditions now. The plan is to impose stiff austerity, requiring much of Ireland's workforce to suffer unemployment for years to come as a result of the failure of their bankers and the ECB.

While it is often claimed that these institutions are not political, only the braindead could still believe this. The decision to make Ireland's workers, along with workers in Spain, Portugal, Latvia and elsewhere, pay for the recklessness of their country's bankers is entirely a political one. There is no economic imperative that says that workers must pay; this is a political decision being imposed by the ECB and IMF.

This should be a huge warning flag for progressives and, in fact, anyone who believes in democracy. If the ECB puts conditions on a rescue package, it will be very difficult for an elected government in Ireland to reverse these conditions. In other words, the issues that Ireland's voters will be able to decide are likely to be trivial in importance relative to the conditions that will be imposed by the ECB.

There is no serious argument for an unaccountable central bank. While no one expects or wants parliaments to micromanage monetary policy, the ECB and other central banks should be clearly accountable to elected bodies. It would be interesting to see how they can justify their plans for subjecting Ireland and other countries to double-digit unemployment for years to come.

The other point that should be kept in mind is that even a relatively small country like Ireland has options. Specifically, they could drop out of the euro and default on their debt. This is hardly a first best option, but if the alternative is an indefinite stint of double-digit unemployment, then leaving the euro and default look much more attractive.

The ECB and the IMF will insist that this is the road to disaster, but their credibility on this point is near zero. There is an obvious precedent. Back in the 2001, the IMF was pushing Argentina to pursue ever more stringent austerity measures. Like Ireland, Argentina had also been a poster child of the neoliberal crew before it ran into difficulties.

But the IMF can turn quickly. Its austerity programme lowered GDP by almost 10% and pushed the unemployment rate well into the double digits. By the end of the 2001, it was politically impossible for the Argentine government to agree to more austerity. As a result, it broke the supposedly unbreakable link between its currency and the dollar and defaulted on its debt.

The immediate effect was to make the economy worse, but by the second half of 2002, the economy was again growing. This was the start of five and a half years of solid growth, until the world economic crisis eventually took its toll in 2009.

The IMF, meanwhile, did everything it could to sabotage Argentina, which became known as the "A word". It even used bogus projections that consistently under-predicted Argentina's growth in the hope of undermining confidence.

Ireland should study the lessons of Argentina. Breaking from the euro would have consequences, but it is becoming increasingly likely that the pain from the break is less than the pain of staying in. Furthermore, simply raising the issue is likely to make the ECB and IMF take a more moderate position.

What the people of Ireland and every country must realise is that if they agree to play by the bankers' rules, they will lose.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 23, 2010, 08:16:28 AM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-23/bust-is-better-than-a-bailout-for-irish-patient-matthew-lynn.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-23/bust-is-better-than-a-bailout-for-irish-patient-matthew-lynn.html)

There is an alternative out there- Have any of our politicians got the balls to examine it?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 23, 2010, 09:29:51 AM
This says it all

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cartoon/2010/nov/23/ireland-bailout-ireland
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Banana Man on November 23, 2010, 09:48:18 AM
Quote from: Declan on November 23, 2010, 08:16:28 AM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-23/bust-is-better-than-a-bailout-for-irish-patient-matthew-lynn.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-23/bust-is-better-than-a-bailout-for-irish-patient-matthew-lynn.html)

There is an alternative out there- Have any of our politicians got the balls to examine it?

I'm not an economist but I think I just read a pretty persuasive argument for 'throwing the keys back'. Any wonder the EU want the Irish to take the money at 5% interest to them, if they don't then the French, UK, German etc Governments will have to throw the cash at their banks which are exposed to the Irish Banking debt.

Simple answer, tell them to go and whistle for it based on this article, anyone see any flaws with it? He uses Greece as a prime example of how it hasn't worked and how Russia and Argentina defaulted and it didn't hold them back
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: rrhf on November 23, 2010, 10:19:56 AM
You would wonder at the people lying down and taking this in general.  The apathy of the nation has left people unsure and afraid and ideal for walking over. Wheres the national pride?     
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 23, 2010, 10:53:52 AM
Good man the FT leader writer

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/97fe4484-f66e-11df-846a-00144feab49a.html#axzz166McEaKq


•   The €750bn worth of financial ordnance in the European Financial Stability Facility and its European Union and International Monetary Fund matching funds was meant to bring enough shock and awe to scare markets off from thinking a eurozone sovereign might default. The EFSF's inaugural mobilisation reveals that between bond investors and Europe's leaders, the politicians blink first.
•   It is too soon to say whether the rescue into which Dublin has been manhandled by panicking EU partners can help fix Ireland's troubled banking sector. Decisions taken in the next week or two will make the difference between the rescue's failure and a chance of success.
•   If the troika now imposing its writ in Dublin can get the Irish to restructure their banks in a way that recapitalises the banking sector (if not extant institutions) by forcing bondholders to convert to equity or otherwise share in losses, the EFSF can provide useful backstop funding for public spending or calls on banks' guaranteed liabilities in the transition period, which must be kept as short as possible.
•   A good outcome requires both a special insolvency regime and the will to strong-arm senior creditors into taking haircuts – as Dublin, to its credit, is finally doing to Anglo Irish subordinate bondholders. •   So far, however, Ireland's uninvited helpers seem set on perpetuating Dublin's dysfunctional policy of throwing good money after bad and filling holes into which creditors refuse to step. This is understandable insofar as many of those creditors come from the core eurozone countries that guarantee the bulk of EFSF money. But it does not justify sticking to a failed strategy: keeping banks standing has already impoverished the Irish public by some €50bn, a third of a year's output. If borrowed EFSF money is used to inject equity into the banks now, it will only dig the Irish sovereign debt trap deeper.
•   The best that can realistically be hoped for is a combination of new equity and creditor haircuts. Whatever plan is laid, it is crucial that it does not aim to keep individual banks alive in their current form. That goal – which implies that the state continues to back all senior bank liabilities – is neither fair to taxpayers nor credible to markets. The mooted €80bn-€90bn rescue covers just half the Irish private sector's bank deposits, let alone other deposits and wholesale debt.
•   Not for the first time, Europe is facing bank creditors and feeling tempted not to face them down. If public money is again used just to buy time, the problem will soon return, more contagious than ever.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: thejuice on November 23, 2010, 11:02:25 AM
Your right there RRHF

2 things that strike me.

1.Why isn't there a new left party emerging like there should be, Sinn Fein aren't new of course.

2.Why aren't we out on the streets demanding a default on the debts. Are we too afraid to make a scene. Same when all the other scandals hit, the church/FF corruption/Lisbon re-vote. Are we too worried we might look like ejits for standing up for something.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 23, 2010, 11:04:30 AM
Note from financial blog

My colleague Graeme Wearden has worrying reports for Ireland – the bailout still isn't impressing the financial markets:
In the City today, investors are continuing to demand a higher return for investing in Irish debt following yesterday's drama.
The yield on Ireland's ten-year government bond jumped to 8.43% this
morning, up from 7.971% - moving back to the 9% levels that sparked
such panic earlier this month.
The cost of insuring Irish debt against default has also risen sharply
- with the five-year credit default swap up by 26 basis points
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Banana Man on November 23, 2010, 11:09:22 AM
plus the euro to sterling rate has moved out further to 1.173  :-\
Title: Get out, Get the Fire brigade out and stay out.
Post by: passedit on November 23, 2010, 11:14:25 AM
Anybody still got still think they've got money in AIB?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 23, 2010, 11:21:52 AM
Quote from: Declan on November 23, 2010, 11:04:30 AM
Note from financial blog

My colleague Graeme Wearden has worrying reports for Ireland – the bailout still isn't impressing the financial markets:
In the City today, investors are continuing to demand a higher return for investing in Irish debt following yesterday's drama.
The yield on Ireland's ten-year government bond jumped to 8.43% this
morning, up from 7.971% - moving back to the 9% levels that sparked
such panic earlier this month.
The cost of insuring Irish debt against default has also risen sharply
- with the five-year credit default swap up by 26 basis points

The bailout plan was supposed to lead to a fall in the yield which would allow Ireland to re enter the debt markets and not draw down any of the funding earmarked for the budget deficit. The bailout plan will have the be revised and it will have to involve bondholders paying something.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: An Gaeilgoir on November 23, 2010, 11:35:27 AM
Was listening to Michael Sommers from the NTMA on Pat Kenny earlier. This man was out of the country the night the guarantee was given, not notified of the deal and basically said that this problem started in early 2007. The reason for the blanket guarantee was the people in with the banks thast night didn't have a clue about international banking. But from his views today, he was still miles away from the end of the tunnel. He reckons between NAMA and the on-going de stabilisation of the banks we are as much on the brink as we were last week. It was really depressing stuff. i know he is on the board of the AIB in some capicity, but Christ if what he says is to come true, we really are goosed.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 23, 2010, 11:48:19 AM
Quote from: An Gaeilgoir on November 23, 2010, 11:35:27 AM
Was listening to Michael Sommers from the NTMA on Pat Kenny earlier. This man was out of the country the night the guarantee was given, not notified of the deal and basically said that this problem started in early 2007. The reason for the blanket guarantee was the people in with the banks thast night didn't have a clue about international banking. But from his views today, he was still miles away from the end of the tunnel. He reckons between NAMA and the on-going de stabilisation of the banks we are as much on the brink as we were last week. It was really depressing stuff. i know he is on the board of the AIB in some capicity, but Christ if what he says is to come true, we really are goosed.

Michael somers was right in the middle of the mess. As head of the NTMA he must have known what was going on with the banks and their massively inflated balance sheets. He was one of the most senior financial representatives of Ireland on the international stage. It is a bit rich of him now to paint himself as some sort of sage.

Europe can't afford to have Ireland go down.  The markets won't accept the current deal. they want bank restructuring and the bondholders are going to have to pay for it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: lawnseed on November 23, 2010, 11:52:42 AM
if you owe the bank a few hundred YOU are in trouble, if you owe them a couple of million THEY are in trouble. Tell them they'll get the money when we have it or get stuffed.

why aren't irish people out on the streets protesting because they take it up the arse, english landlords, the clergy, polititions, the guards, irish people have been taking it for centuries they know no different. i read that dublin catholics spat on the 1916 heroes on their way to being executed by the brits

i understand that the guards and reserve have been drilling/practising at dundalk race course for riots for the past few months to supress any protests that might arise... disgusting! this government have supressed the media, denied the irish people democracy, and now they intend to batter its citizens of the street
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 23, 2010, 12:04:59 PM
QuoteMichael somers was right in the middle of the mess

Did the plank ask him about NTMA and them moving monies out of Irish Bank stocks?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: tyronefan on November 23, 2010, 12:16:01 PM
Quote from: lawnseed on November 23, 2010, 11:52:42 AM
if you owe the bank a few hundred YOU are in trouble, if you owe them a couple of million THEY are in trouble. Tell them they'll get the money when we have it or get stuffed.

why aren't irish people out on the streets protesting because they take it up the arse, english landlords, the clergy, polititions, the guards, irish people have been taking it for centuries they know no different. i read that dublin catholics spat on the 1916 heroes on their way to being executed by the brits

i understand that the guards and reserve have been drilling/practising at dundalk race course for riots for the past few months to supress any protests that might arise... disgusting! this government have supressed the media, denied the irish people democracy, and now they intend to batter its citizens of the street

i thought the guards were very heavy handed with the protests at Leinster House over the last few days.

The way they brought the man to the ground who was standing in front of Mary Hanifin's car  was uncalled for and the guard yesterday was beating the people at the SF demo with his batton.

Neither of these protests were violent nor did they look like they were getting out of hand. I would have thought that a bit of reasoning would have been as effective as the bully boy tactic's
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: rrhf on November 23, 2010, 12:22:53 PM
Simplistic view of the day:
The Irish Governement with just 2 months left, in deference to pressure exerted by european "friends" who actually have more to lose if the hard deal isnt taken up, has chosen to honour the debt of the banks and stock holders, protect Bristish and European bank interests in Ireland, ignore the debt and hardship of the Irish people themselves, in fact add to it with budget cuts, sell their democracy and force the same people to pay the "friends" back for generations.  Not a bit of wonder we were always seen as green.   Looks like the famine is just beginning..
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: highorlow on November 23, 2010, 12:33:03 PM
Quote2.Why aren't we out on the streets demanding a default on the debts. Are we too afraid to make a scene. Same when all the other scandals hit, the church/FF corruption/Lisbon re-vote. Are we too worried we might look like ejits for standing up for something.

Buyers remorse. We voted in the clowns. Or 44% of us did.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 23, 2010, 12:38:22 PM
Quote from: highorlow on November 23, 2010, 12:33:03 PM
Quote2.Why aren't we out on the streets demanding a default on the debts. Are we too afraid to make a scene. Same when all the other scandals hit, the church/FF corruption/Lisbon re-vote. Are we too worried we might look like ejits for standing up for something.

Buyers remorse. We voted in the clowns. Or 44% of us did.
and a quick look at some of the threads from the 2007 election shows that there were plenty of willing voters on here too!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: An Gaeilgoir on November 23, 2010, 01:06:49 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on November 23, 2010, 12:38:22 PM
Quote from: highorlow on November 23, 2010, 12:33:03 PM
Quote2.Why aren't we out on the streets demanding a default on the debts. Are we too afraid to make a scene. Same when all the other scandals hit, the church/FF corruption/Lisbon re-vote. Are we too worried we might look like ejits for standing up for something.

Buyers remorse. We voted in the clowns. Or 44% of us did.
and a quick look at some of the threads from the 2007 election shows that there were plenty of willing voters on here too!


My personal opinion on making a scene, ALL protest in Ireland are hi-jacked by some extreme wing or other, a small riot follows, the organisers of the original protest are undermined and everyone is back to square one. We have the TEEU instructing their members to hold a day of disobedience (what does this mean), while thousands of their members in the private sector are been made redundant and their public sector members are been protected by out dated work practices. The TEEU were happy enough to run in to Govt. buildings during the good times while they turned a blind eye to rogue operators paying lads a tenner an hour on state funded projects. However if there was a people's movement protest which wouldn't be taken over by unions, eirigi etc. then i think it would work, like what was held in the North during the troubles, but no doubt beardy from SIPTU would end up on the stage "big bad employers, blah, blah, blah" and the usual senario would develop again.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 23, 2010, 01:38:55 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on November 23, 2010, 12:38:22 PM
Quote from: highorlow on November 23, 2010, 12:33:03 PM
Quote2.Why aren't we out on the streets demanding a default on the debts. Are we too afraid to make a scene. Same when all the other scandals hit, the church/FF corruption/Lisbon re-vote. Are we too worried we might look like ejits for standing up for something.

Buyers remorse. We voted in the clowns. Or 44% of us did.
and a quick look at some of the threads from the 2007 election shows that there were plenty of willing voters on here too!

how do i find that thread?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 23, 2010, 01:45:02 PM
Austerity alone won't work

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0aa791c4-f6e3-11df-8feb-00144feab49a.html#axzz16730s4lW

Portugal's state deficit widened in the first 10 months of 2010, according to government figures showing that austerity measures designed to ease financial market concerns have so far had little impact on public spending.

According to government figures, Portugal's core state deficit rose to €11.885bn for the first 10 months of 2010, up €215m ($292bn) on the same period last year. A 4.6 per cent increase in tax revenue proved insufficient to offset a 2.8 per cent increase in state spending.

The government said such state spending had increased despite a 17.3 per cent cut in public investment and an increase in value-added tax, largely because of a 4.9 per cent increase in the cost of interest paid on public debt.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 23, 2010, 02:10:34 PM
For conspiracy theorists everywhere- Bar the emphasis on the "british Empire bits" it's analysis of the actual bailout is interesting
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vu9_Gqygn98 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vu9_Gqygn98)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 23, 2010, 03:19:05 PM
And here's an update on the Irish banking sector:
Irish bank shares fell again today 24 hours after the government announced restructuring was on the way and the governor of the central bank confirming the Irish banks are "for sale".
Shares in 36%-state owned Bank of Ireland fell 23% to 30c giving it a market capitalisation of around €1.77bn (£1.5bn), half what it was a month ago. Allied Irish Banks, whose government ownership will rise to around 95% after a planned rights issue, traded down 13% to 35c. Irish Life & Permanent, the only Irish-owned bank to so far not have received any state aid, fell 4.5% to €0.80, following a 27% drop yesterday.
"The market is on its way to deciding there is no equity left in the banks," said Gary McCarthy, head of Quest, the quantitative research unit of broker Collins Stewart.
He said "the best thing could be to remove one big bank, such as AIB, from the state balance sheet".
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Evil Genius on November 23, 2010, 03:20:00 PM
Quote from: Declan on November 23, 2010, 02:10:34 PM
For conspiracy theorists everywhere- Bar the emphasis on the "british Empire bits" it's analysis of the actual bailout is interesting
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vu9_Gqygn98 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vu9_Gqygn98)
You say "interesting", I say "a nut job".

Just read the first comment below, to get a flavour of the people who subscribe to this sort of crap:
Sir Cabhan: "Not entirely sure how accurate this is, but she says some interesting things - BUT she is in denial of the Anglo-American Alliance. It's NOT the British Empire as such; it is an Anglo-American Empire encompassing the Imperial dreams of the European Royal Families with their surrogate bloodlines in the USA - ALL US Presidents bar one are descended from George the Third - that is no accident"

Anyhow, I kept thinking that presenter was going to end her spiel with: "And now back to Jon Stewart in 'The Daily Show' studio".  :D

P.S. On the theme of "Nothing is Ever as it Seems", for all that the presenter looks and sounds female (technically, at least), am I the only one to wonder whether she isn't, in fact, concealing a   c o c k   somewhere about her person?
If you're having difficulty with that concept, just think "Rafael Nadal in a Wig"  ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 23, 2010, 03:41:42 PM
The facts re the banks  etc and that we are being asked to bail them out is correct - I did say it was for conspiracy theorists but don't let the assumptions they jump to cloud this element of what's happening
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 23, 2010, 04:35:04 PM
Robbed from P.ie

Apparently, the following is a live news feed from a Bloomberg terminal. (Source: propertypin.com)

El-Arian is a serious big beast in global finance, and I've long respected his analysis on any topic.



14:50 *RESTRUCTURING OF IRISH DEBT NEEDS TO BE DISCUSSED: EL-ERIAN
14:49 *WORST THING FOR EUROPE IS GERMANY TO BE CONTAMINATED: EL-ERIAN
14:47 *BANK RUN WOULD HURT PROSPERITY FOR A GENERATION, EL-ERIAN SAYS
14:46 *DEPOSITS LEAVINNG THE IRISH BANKING SYSTEM, EL-ERIAN SAYS
14:46 *IRELAND RISKS A `MAJOR BANK RUN,' PIMCO'S EL-ERIAN SAYS
14:45 *EUROPE NEEDS TO QUICKLY CALM THINGS IN IRELAND, EL-ERIAN SAYS
14:42 *PIMCO'S MOHAMED EL-ERIAN COMMENTS IN ON BLOOMBERG RADIO
14:41 *PIMCO'S EL-ERIAN SAYS IRISH BANKING SYSTEM 'BLEEDING DEPOSITS'
14:40 *PIMCO'S EL-ERIAN SAYS IRELAND 'GETTING CLOSE TO MAJOR BANK RUN'
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 23, 2010, 04:40:14 PM
Quote from: Declan on November 23, 2010, 04:35:04 PM
Robbed from P.ie

Apparently, the following is a live news feed from a Bloomberg terminal. (Source: propertypin.com)

El-Arian is a serious big beast in global finance, and I've long respected his analysis on any topic.



14:50 *RESTRUCTURING OF IRISH DEBT NEEDS TO BE DISCUSSED: EL-ERIAN
14:49 *WORST THING FOR EUROPE IS GERMANY TO BE CONTAMINATED: EL-ERIAN
14:47 *BANK RUN WOULD HURT PROSPERITY FOR A GENERATION, EL-ERIAN SAYS
14:46 *DEPOSITS LEAVINNG THE IRISH BANKING SYSTEM, EL-ERIAN SAYS
14:46 *IRELAND RISKS A `MAJOR BANK RUN,' PIMCO'S EL-ERIAN SAYS
14:45 *EUROPE NEEDS TO QUICKLY CALM THINGS IN IRELAND, EL-ERIAN SAYS
14:42 *PIMCO'S MOHAMED EL-ERIAN COMMENTS IN ON BLOOMBERG RADIO
14:41 *PIMCO'S EL-ERIAN SAYS IRISH BANKING SYSTEM 'BLEEDING DEPOSITS'
14:40 *PIMCO'S EL-ERIAN SAYS IRELAND 'GETTING CLOSE TO MAJOR BANK RUN'

So much for the great bank guarantee.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 23, 2010, 06:13:26 PM
Quote from: Declan on November 23, 2010, 12:04:59 PM
QuoteMichael somers was right in the middle of the mess

Did the plank ask him about NTMA and them moving monies out of Irish Bank stocks?

In particular not putting deposits from the NTMA into Anglo despite alleged pressure to do so..

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/pressure-on-cowen-to-reveal-what-he-knew-months-before-bank-guarantee-2410676.html (http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/pressure-on-cowen-to-reveal-what-he-knew-months-before-bank-guarantee-2410676.html)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 23, 2010, 06:29:51 PM
For conspiracy theorists everywhere - Good man Jim
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ing8xH3Qj-k&feature=player_embedded (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ing8xH3Qj-k&feature=player_embedded)

Getting interesting yet our muppets continuing with the charade
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the prospect of serial European bailouts was "exceptionally serious," sending the euro to a three-month low as officials estimated saving Ireland will cost 85 billion euros ($114 billion).

Irish bonds dropped and the premium that investors demand to hold Spanish debt over German counterparts jumped to a euro- era record as the relief rallies triggered by Ireland's Nov. 21 aid request evaporated. Traders are now betting the turmoil that started in Greece a year ago will spread to Portugal and Spain.

"The markets currently have virtually zero confidence that the bailout in Ireland will solve the European crisis," Charles Diebel and David Page, fixed-income strategists at Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets in London, said in a note today. "With markets effectively in a position to dictate policy, the risk is that the credibility crisis shifts to more sizeable European Union countries and thereby poses a greater risk to the system as a whole."
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 23, 2010, 07:19:11 PM
This is going to get bumpy

Ireland Risking Bank Run Without Remedy, Pimco's El-Erian Says: Tom Keene - Bloomberg - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-17/asset-purchases-needed-with-fed-failing-on-mandates-pimco-s-clarida-says.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-17/asset-purchases-needed-with-fed-failing-on-mandates-pimco-s-clarida-says.html)

El-Erian: "What You Advise Your Sister In Ireland Now Is That You - http://www.businessinsider.com/el-erian-irish-banks-2010-11 (http://www.businessinsider.com/el-erian-irish-banks-2010-11)

"One of the world's biggest bond dealers and former deputy director of the IMF said there could be a run on Irish banks. And he predicted ordinary deposit holders would take flight soon.

"What you advise your sister in Ireland now is that you'd say take your money out of an Irish bank and put it in another bank headquartered elsewhere," said Pacific Investment Management Co (Pimco)'s Mohamed A El-Elrian. "That's what happened in Argentina and in emerging countries. People worry about their savings."

"The numbers so far have shown that the Irish banking system has been bleeding deposits," he told Bloomberg Radio. "It will seriously undermine the prosperity of this country for a generation. The first thing they must do is execute on what they announced this weekend – which is a big external aid package and steps by the Irish government."
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 23, 2010, 07:28:42 PM
Quote from: Declan on November 23, 2010, 07:19:11 PM
This is going to get bumpy

Ireland Risking Bank Run Without Remedy, Pimco's El-Erian Says: Tom Keene - Bloomberg - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-17/asset-purchases-needed-with-fed-failing-on-mandates-pimco-s-clarida-says.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-17/asset-purchases-needed-with-fed-failing-on-mandates-pimco-s-clarida-says.html)

El-Erian: "What You Advise Your Sister In Ireland Now Is That You - http://www.businessinsider.com/el-erian-irish-banks-2010-11 (http://www.businessinsider.com/el-erian-irish-banks-2010-11)

"One of the world's biggest bond dealers and former deputy director of the IMF said there could be a run on Irish banks. And he predicted ordinary deposit holders would take flight soon.

"What you advise your sister in Ireland now is that you'd say take your money out of an Irish bank and put it in another bank headquartered elsewhere," said Pacific Investment Management Co (Pimco)'s Mohamed A El-Elrian. "That's what happened in Argentina and in emerging countries. People worry about their savings."

"The numbers so far have shown that the Irish banking system has been bleeding deposits," he told Bloomberg Radio. "It will seriously undermine the prosperity of this country for a generation. The first thing they must do is execute on what they announced this weekend – which is a big external aid package and steps by the Irish government."
If the IMF/EU money is in place, why would there be a run on irish banks?

The euro is 1.335 from 1.375 odd yesterday morning and 1.35 odd this morning.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on November 23, 2010, 09:00:32 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on November 23, 2010, 07:28:42 PM
Quote from: Declan on November 23, 2010, 07:19:11 PM
This is going to get bumpy

Ireland Risking Bank Run Without Remedy, Pimco's El-Erian Says: Tom Keene - Bloomberg - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-17/asset-purchases-needed-with-fed-failing-on-mandates-pimco-s-clarida-says.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-17/asset-purchases-needed-with-fed-failing-on-mandates-pimco-s-clarida-says.html)

El-Erian: "What You Advise Your Sister In Ireland Now Is That You - http://www.businessinsider.com/el-erian-irish-banks-2010-11 (http://www.businessinsider.com/el-erian-irish-banks-2010-11)

"One of the world's biggest bond dealers and former deputy director of the IMF said there could be a run on Irish banks. And he predicted ordinary deposit holders would take flight soon.

"What you advise your sister in Ireland now is that you'd say take your money out of an Irish bank and put it in another bank headquartered elsewhere," said Pacific Investment Management Co (Pimco)'s Mohamed A El-Elrian. "That's what happened in Argentina and in emerging countries. People worry about their savings."

"The numbers so far have shown that the Irish banking system has been bleeding deposits," he told Bloomberg Radio. "It will seriously undermine the prosperity of this country for a generation. The first thing they must do is execute on what they announced this weekend – which is a big external aid package and steps by the Irish government."
If the IMF/EU money is in place, why would there be a run on irish banks?

The euro is 1.335 from 1.375 odd yesterday morning and 1.35 odd this morning.

The IMF/EU money is contingent on budget being passed. There has to be some uncertainty about this and events in Portugal and Spain might get ahead of the drawdown. There is some risk to depositors though probably small ( unless ECB pulls the plug ).
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 23, 2010, 09:37:13 PM
Prime Time announcing 'dramatic plans for our banks that will affect all of our lives'

Ill keep you posted.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 23, 2010, 09:42:01 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 23, 2010, 09:37:13 PM
Prime Time announcing 'dramatic plans for our banks that will affect all of our lives'

Ill keep you posted.
going to try and beat you to it, if i understand what they're telling me - did they briefly talk about it on the news?  I was watching football on the laptop - didn't sound overly stupid though from what i think i maybe heard.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 23, 2010, 09:43:24 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1123/economy.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1123/economy.html)

€85bn fund for banks and public finances
Updated: 21:23, Tuesday, 23 November 2010

The EU and the IMF will offer the Government an €85bn facility, which can be used to recapitalise the banks and fund the public finances.

Funding - Aimed at boosting confidence
Play

The European Union and the International Monetary Fund will offer the Government an €85bn facility, which can be used to recapitalise the banks and fund the public finances.
The package would see the level of capital in the Irish banks being increased from eight to 12% in a move to bolster confidence of depositors in the financial system.
Last week the IMF and EU team began intensive meetings with the Central Bank to reshape the financial system for the future.
Their plan would boost levels of capital in banks, to cushion against future loan losses. It is a significant figure by international standards.
It is aimed at boosting confidence - particularly for depositors who are also covered by the EU back guarantee.
The money will come from an €85bn facility provided by the EU and IMF and the remainder will be used to run the country on a day-to-day basis perhaps over a two to three year period.
While the authorities are reluctant to fully nationalise AIB it will need significant new funds. One option is that the State will be left with an 99.9% stake the bank in return for the new capital.
It is also going to take some bad loans out of its AIB's UK subsidiary and try to sell the division again. Bank of Ireland, currently 36% State owned, would become majority Government controlled, and authorities are hopeful of selling off EBS quickly.
The size Irish banks will be significantly reduced as blocks of loans would be sold off.
Investors would be offered loss-sharing arrangement with the State.
It is likely a formal letter of intent will be issued by the IMF to the Government early next week containing final details.
The International Monetary Fund earlier said talks between it and Ireland were moving forward quickly, but it was up to the Irish Government to make the necessary political decisions.
The IMF's First Deputy Managing Director, John Lipsky, made the comment in New York in response to questions by reporters about the impact on the negotiations of growing political instability in Ireland.
Mr Lipsky said the IMF's work in Ireland was technical, not political.
EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said it is essential that Ireland passes the Budget in the timeline foreseen, adding this would be best done sooner than later.
The Commissioner was speaking following a confidential briefing with Irish MEPs at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, which lasted for just over an hour.
Mr Rehn said every day that is lost increases uncertainty and increases the economic and social cost.
He added that Ireland needs to adopt the Budget, get it out of the way and move on.
Mr Rehn also said that while he did not have a position on domestic politics, political stability is important.
However Socialist Party MEP Joe Higgins walked out of the meeting after just two minutes.
Mr Higgins said that the information was only being shared on the basis it was confidential and would not be divulged. He said not sharing the information would be a betrayal.
For many of the MEPs at the meeting the key issue was keeping Ireland's 12.5% corporate tax rate off the table.
Minister for Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Innovation Batt O'Keeffe told the Dáil that Ireland's corporation tax of 12.5% is critical, and is but one of a number of factors that makes Ireland attractive to multinational companies.
He was speaking this evening on a Fine Gael Private Members' Motion on the need to defend Ireland's corporation tax rate.
Mr O'Keeffe also said a move away from the existing corporation tax rate would have a significant negative effect on existing and potential investments.
Meanwhile, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund Dominique Strauss-Kahn was commenting on Ireland and Greece.
Speaking during a Swiss Television interview Mr Strauss-Kahn's message was: 'We must tighten our belts.'
Referring to the crisis in Ireland and Greece he said: 'The idea that you may live long beyond his means is a crazy idea, even if the causes are different in these two countries.'
The director of the IMF estimates that these countries 'in one way or another we have to tighten their belts to get back to something that is bearable ... Those who are in a weak position are those who get in trouble first.
'That is why we need to preserve as much as possible social spending. We cannot continue like this.
'The solidarity of European countries should avoid the collapse of some states, but it requires rather drastic economic measures, and once again it will be the weakest countries that will suffer most', he said.
December Budget
Earlier, it emerged that Taoiseach Brian Cowen telephoned the leaders of Fine Gael and Labour last night to stress the importance of the Budget being passed on 7 December.
It is understood that Mr Cowen did not directly ask for support for the Budget, but did offer access to officials in the Department of Finance and other Government departments to underline the necessity of passing it.
The Government's view is that support from the IMF and the European Union depends on the measures included in the Budget being passed.
Minister for Transport Noel Dempsey said this morning it was imperative that the Budget is passed and that the Opposition gives as much support as possible.
The Cabinet met this morning to sign off on its four-year economic plan, which is due to be published tomorrow.
Last night, Mr Cowen said he would seek dissolution of the Dáil after the current budgetary process is complete in the New Year.
He made the announcement after the Green Party called for a General Election to be held in January.
Euro 'at stake' in bailout
Elsewhere, Germany's finance minister has said the fate of the shared European currency was at stake in the proposed bailout of Ireland.
Speaking in the German parliament, Wolfgang Schaeuble said: 'It's our common currency that's at stake.'
Mr Schaeuble said Germany must take responsibility 'otherwise there will be untold economic and social consequences for our country'.
Luxembourg's foreign minister has said Ireland should not have to raise its corporate tax as a condition for receiving the bailout.
Jean Asselborn said: 'The situation that Ireland finds itself in is already difficult enough. We should be careful not to strangle Ireland. Ireland has already lost so much economically.
'And if we take away every attraction Ireland has for inward investment then things will only get worse. And the worse it gets, the more expensive will it get for Europe in the end.'
Elsewhere, Greece has won approval for a new tranche of rescue funding but the IMF and EU prescribed even tougher action on tax evasion, and waste in health care and state companies to earn another payout.
They also warned that Greek wages were too high and said the country, saved from imminent insolvency in May, faced potential problems in repaying on time although solutions were available in that case.
The expert auditor from the IMF Poul Thomsen said: 'The programme is at a crossroad.'
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 23, 2010, 09:45:46 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 23, 2010, 09:37:13 PM
Prime Time announcing 'dramatic plans for our banks that will affect all of our lives'

Ill keep you posted.

I don't think there is anything particularly new there. Please correct me if I am wrong.

This looks like an announcement for the sake of an announcement. Are they worried about lack of confidence in the very short term?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 23, 2010, 09:52:14 PM
Prime Time highlighting the 'effective nationalisation' of the Banks. AIB to become 99.9% Government owned.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 23, 2010, 09:56:31 PM
"If we have a rate of 5% on our total national debt it will cost €5,000 a year for each worker" - Lucey
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: sammymaguire on November 23, 2010, 09:59:49 PM
I hate Leo's voice
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 23, 2010, 10:02:25 PM
Ok I put my hands up. Nothing of note on Prime Time.  ::)

Maybe there is another long night with morning announcements on the cards. RTE should have their arses kicked though given how delicate the banking situation is.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 23, 2010, 10:03:00 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 23, 2010, 09:43:24 PMThe European Union and the International Monetary Fund will offer the Government an €85bn facility, which can be used to recapitalise the banks and fund the public finances.
The package would see the level of capital in the Irish banks being increased from eight to 12% in a move to bolster confidence of depositors in the financial system.
Last week the IMF and EU team began intensive meetings with the Central Bank to reshape the financial system for the future.
Their plan would boost levels of capital in banks, to cushion against future loan losses. It is a significant figure by international standards.
It is aimed at boosting confidence - particularly for depositors who are also covered by the EU back guarantee.
The money will come from an €85bn facility provided by the EU and IMF and the remainder will be used to run the country on a day-to-day basis perhaps over a two to three year period.
While the authorities are reluctant to fully nationalise AIB it will need significant new funds. One option is that the State will be left with an 99.9% stake the bank in return for the new capital.
It is also going to take some bad loans out of its AIB's UK subsidiary and try to sell the division again. Bank of Ireland, currently 36% State owned, would become majority Government controlled, and authorities are hopeful of selling off EBS quickly.
The size Irish banks will be significantly reduced as blocks of loans would be sold off.
Investors would be offered loss-sharing arrangement with the State.
It is likely a formal letter of intent will be issued by the IMF to the Government early next week containing final details.h lasted for just over an hour.
There's a few new things above, i'm a bit unclear about them, but it seems that the troika have come up with what they see as a way to sort the banks, i don't think that the bolstering of reserves from 8% to 12% will be enough to attract non-ecb money, but these guys are experts, maybe i should defer to their better judgement, maybe i should question if they really realise the extent of the losses still to come?

Bart seems almost apologetic on the telly tonight, where's the famous ff arrogance?  Maybe I'll vote for them after all, anything to keep leo out of the cabinet!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: highorlow on November 23, 2010, 10:06:24 PM
QuoteFor conspiracy theorists everywhere - Good man Jim
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ing8xH3Qj-k&feature=player_embedded


Jim has too much time on his hands God bless him.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 23, 2010, 10:18:56 PM
lads €85 billion ain't enough believe it or not. We are fubared beyond repair yet the govt are willing to saddle us with debt for for ever. Wake up and smell the coffee. It's all over. There is no way we can afford to repay it.     
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 23, 2010, 10:25:32 PM
Quote from: Declan on November 23, 2010, 10:18:56 PM
lads €85 billion ain't enough believe it or not. We are fubared beyond repair yet the govt are willing to saddle us with debt for for ever. Wake up and smell the coffee. It's all over. There is no way we can afford to repay it.   

Imagine you owned a box that someone put in €10 every year.
Imagine they were putting money in that box for a long long time.
Imagine they were doing that every year since the beginning of the Universe.
It still wouldn't cover our new national debt.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: sammymaguire on November 23, 2010, 10:27:41 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 23, 2010, 10:25:32 PM
Quote from: Declan on November 23, 2010, 10:18:56 PM
lads €85 billion ain't enough believe it or not. We are fubared beyond repair yet the govt are willing to saddle us with debt for for ever. Wake up and smell the coffee. It's all over. There is no way we can afford to repay it.   

Imagine you owned a box that someone put in €10 every year.
Imagine they were putting money in that box for a long long time.
Imagine they were doing that every year since the beginning of the Universe.
It still wouldn't cover our new national debt.

Bono has ALOT of money hasn't he?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 23, 2010, 11:24:42 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 23, 2010, 10:25:32 PM
Quote from: Declan on November 23, 2010, 10:18:56 PM
lads €85 billion ain't enough believe it or not. We are fubared beyond repair yet the govt are willing to saddle us with debt for for ever. Wake up and smell the coffee. It's all over. There is no way we can afford to repay it.   

Imagine you owned a box that someone put in €10 every year.
Imagine they were putting money in that box for a long long time.
Imagine they were doing that every year since the beginning of the Universe.It still wouldn't cover our new national debt.
you mean each and every one of the last 12,000 years since the world was created (i guess the universe came about at the same time??)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Peter Solan the Great on November 23, 2010, 11:27:07 PM
To: The citizens of the Republic of Ireland:

In light of your absolute incompetence in running your own affairs, by continually electing the same shower of useless, greedy and corrupt politicians, the shocking financial crisis of the last 3 years but most of all your complete inability to bring anyone to account for this mess or take to the streets to demonstrate your anger, Her Majesty feels compelled to take immediate action.

You have had 88 years to get this right but have made a complete hames of it. You cannot blame the mainland for this one.

Additionally, because of your total fascination with supporting English football teams (and 1 Scottish), and almost total failure to support the Airtricity league. This is an obvious expression of desire to be British.

The final straw was the announcement of Prince William's forthcoming marriage appearing on the front page of all major Irish newspapers and headline TV news on the very day Europe were trying to finalise the takeover of the Irish economy. This clearly demonstrates a sub-conscious desire to be British (and NOT European!).

Therefore, we hereby give notice of the revocation of your independence, and effective immediately, Her Sovereign Majesty Queen Elizabeth II will resume monarchical duties over the Irish Free State.

Your new prime minister, David Cameron, will appoint a governor for Ireland immediately.

Her majesty's government is extremely concerned that Ireland has already given up it's sovereignty to Brussels and Strasbourg, the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund and anyone else you can borrow a few quid off so is taking this action to protect both the people of Ireland and to restore the British Isles to it's proper status.

Dail Eireann and Seanad Eirann will be disbanded. A questionnaire may be circulated next year to determine whether any of you noticed. All current TD's will be immediately re-deployed, some arrested and tried for treason.

To aid in the transition to a British Crown Dependency, the following rules are introduced with immediate effect:

1. The Irish language is not banned, but will no longer be part of the school curriculum, no longer share equal status with English and all signs in Irish are to be removed immediately. They are pointless. TG4 will be disbanded
The word(s) feck, fecker, fecking are banned – you are not fooling anyone.

2. RTE will be disbanded, you all watch BBC, ITV and Sky Sports anyway. The money saved will pay for Road Signs.

3. March 17th will no longer be celebrated as a holiday.

4. Bacon and Cabbage are hereby banned – no one likes it. Similarly, Abrakebabra is banned immediately and will be replaced with handily placed kebab vans within each district. Indian restaurants will also open until 4am.

5. You will re-learn your original national anthem, God Save The Queen.

6. Road Safety:
a) Gay Byrne is sacked as chairman of the Road Safety Authority. Whoever thought the smuggest individual ever to grace a TV screens could possibly help?

b) All major traffic light intersections will be replaced with roundabouts

c) The imperial Mile measurement is to be re-introduced with immediate effect.

d) All learner drivers are banned from driving alone with immediate effect.

e) All African driving licenses are hereby immediately revoked.

f) All persons who received a full driving license in the "amnesty" are also banned from driving until they sit the test.

g) A new Garda Traffic division is to be established to patrol shopping centre car parks for cases of extremely bad parking and driving the wrong way round the car parks. Fine of £100 and 3 points
7. ALL tribunals will cease immediately. The money saved will be spent on new easily visible street signs.

8. DRINK: The price of a pint of beer is to be immediately re-aligned with UK prices - £2.50 a pint.
The restricted number of pub licenses is to be removed immediately, and a Wetherspoon's will be opened in every town centre throughout Ireland, along with an O'Neill's proper Irish pub.
Guinness is to be rationed to 3 pints of day per person. It is for the greater good.

9. The Euro will be phased out over the next 6 months and replaced with the Queen's shilling.

10. Dressing up 8 year old girls in wedding dresses is also considered an extremely unhealthy activity.

11. You will cease playing all Gaelic games. All GAA facilities will be handed over to the English cricket authorities. Cricket will become mandatory in all schools.

12. Please tell us what happened to Shergar..

13. An inland revenue agent from Her Majesty's Government will be with you shortly to ensure the acquisition of all monies due (backdated to 1949).

14. Talking of 1949, Ireland will be immediately re-admitted to the Commonwealth and therefore allowed access to commonwealth country trade markets but more importantly have a better chance of winning medals at a major sporting event.

God save the Queen
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on November 23, 2010, 11:28:09 PM
Quote from: Declan on November 23, 2010, 10:18:56 PM
lads €85 billion ain't enough believe it or not. We are fubared beyond repair yet the govt are willing to saddle us with debt for for ever. Wake up and smell the coffee. It's all over. There is no way we can afford to repay it.   

Would it be beter to default now before we borrow another 85bn or borrow it, spend it then default?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Fear ón Srath Bán on November 23, 2010, 11:43:05 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on November 23, 2010, 11:28:09 PM
Quote from: Declan on November 23, 2010, 10:18:56 PM
lads €85 billion ain't enough believe it or not. We are fubared beyond repair yet the govt are willing to saddle us with debt for for ever. Wake up and smell the coffee. It's all over. There is no way we can afford to repay it.   

Would it be beter to default now before we borrow another 85bn or borrow it, spend it then default?

It's something like €240 billion we need Zap, so I believe that 1) the budget must be scuppered immediately (along with the '4-year-plan'), 2) an election is called and a new Government is installed, then 3) we renegotiate with IMF/ECB on a carte blanche basis where we burn the bondholders of the decrepit Irish banks (as well as restructuring the banks, etc.) -- this means we'll need to show a bit of backbone, but it will also show we won't roll over like the current useless shower are.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on November 23, 2010, 11:49:46 PM
Quote from: Fear ón Srath Bán on November 23, 2010, 11:43:05 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on November 23, 2010, 11:28:09 PM
Quote from: Declan on November 23, 2010, 10:18:56 PM
lads €85 billion ain't enough believe it or not. We are fubared beyond repair yet the govt are willing to saddle us with debt for for ever. Wake up and smell the coffee. It's all over. There is no way we can afford to repay it.   

Would it be beter to default now before we borrow another 85bn or borrow it, spend it then default?

It's something like €240 billion we need Zap, so I believe that 1) the budget must be scuppered immediately (along with the '4-year-plan'), 2) an election is called and a new Government is installed, then 3) we renegotiate with IMF/ECB on a carte blanche basis where we burn the bondholders of the decrepit Irish banks (as well as restructuring the banks, etc.) -- this means we'll need to show a bit of backbone, but it will also show we won't roll over like the current useless shower are.

That's going against the advice of the Government, the main opposition, the EU and the IMF ??? Maybe we should treat it like Lisbon and if we get it wrong we'll get another go? Oh, no choice, sorry.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Fear ón Srath Bán on November 23, 2010, 11:52:02 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on November 23, 2010, 11:49:46 PM
That's going against the advice of the Government, the main opposition, the EU and the IMF ??? Maybe we should treat it like Lisbon and if we get it wrong we'll get another go? Oh, no choice, sorry.

The EU (& IMF) are terrified that we might default, because it will be the European banks that will take the hit. That's the only weapon we have, but it's a powerful one.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Shamrock Shore on November 24, 2010, 12:02:07 AM
Lads. This is not the endgame.

The endgame could be the collapse of the euro and subsequent worldwide financial meltdown. I am at a loss to work out what that will entail. The next Teeshop better have a plan to circulate a new Irish pound at a minute's notice.

Anyone hear the hooves of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse coming over the horizon?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: ONeill on November 24, 2010, 12:06:44 AM
What business of mine is it.
So long they don't take the yam.
From my savouring mouth?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: thejuice on November 24, 2010, 12:29:44 AM
yep, the economies of the future will have to be more locally focused. The Euro wont last.

Reliance will be the buzz word of the day, resilient economy, resilient eco-systems, resilient energy systems. Less focus on efficiency which usually pares energy, income and ideas from one source. Resilience chooses many sources all contributing and not just the single most efficient, and if one source diminishes we are still able to carry on.

Anyway that might be the new paradigm, which promises no booms but meaningful and responsible growth. We might need to reconnect to the land and what it provides and not just the most profitable crop but rather a more diverse range. The collapse of economies, coupled with diminishing oil reserves (if you believe thats whats happening) means imported foods are going to be too expensive soon anyway.

Yes I've been following the Transition Town movement, it has some answers and offers a way of coping with austerity. Perhaps co-ops need to be formed to buy land or perhaps rented. I know such a thing will be unpalatable to many, working outdoors and growing their own food might seem as something from a past we'd thought we'd left behind or for a different class of people.

Transition Towns have also reintroduced local currency's mostly just as reminder that people can get what they need locally.

http://www.transitionnetwork.org/
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: An Gaeilgoir on November 24, 2010, 12:54:59 AM
Quote from: Shamrock Shore on November 24, 2010, 12:02:07 AM
Lads. This is not the endgame.

The endgame could be the collapse of the euro and subsequent worldwide financial meltdown. I am at a loss to work out what that will entail. The next Teeshop better have a plan to circulate a new Irish pound at a minute's notice.

Anyone hear the hooves of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse coming over the horizon?

Been speaking to a few people today about this very issue. If the Euro went tomorrow what would happen? Some of the lads at work have taken all of their savings out of their banks/ Credit Unions and converted half into Sterling and half into Dollars. is this a good idea or not?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: INDIANA on November 24, 2010, 01:58:24 AM
Quote from: Shamrock Shore on November 24, 2010, 12:02:07 AM
Lads. This is not the endgame.

The endgame could be the collapse of the euro and subsequent worldwide financial meltdown. I am at a loss to work out what that will entail. The next Teeshop better have a plan to circulate a new Irish pound at a minute's notice.

Anyone hear the hooves of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse coming over the horizon?

Fellas dont believe all the bullshit. Banks are not run by currencies. Ireland should default on its loans. Id prefer to default then pay 7%.
Argentina's currency went to the wall and the country is fine. If the fate of the euro is in our hands we are in a unique bargaining position. Tell them to shove their 7% for starters and re-necogiate. Its not our fault they lent billions to Irish banks on poor credit terms and never checked whether they were good for it.

Would be no harm if the euro failed and we got our own currency back. Its been a feckin disaster of a currency anyway.
As Homer Simpson would say- "Default the two nicest words in the English language"
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on November 24, 2010, 07:28:40 AM
We should just default and then adopt the sterling as te currency.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 24, 2010, 08:10:03 AM
Isn't it amazing that not one of our public representatives has mentioned this yet - Well I can't recall anyone unless Joe Higgins has said something ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on November 24, 2010, 08:14:48 AM
I think some of them thought there was another way out before the IMF/ECB loan was applied for based on the incorrect figures they were given.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 24, 2010, 08:21:15 AM
Jaysus folks I just saw these figures that Brina Lucey mentioned on Vincent Browne last night

Existing National Debt of circa €90billion;
Bailout debt to be incurred over the next 3 years €85billion
Bonds falling due to be paid by Ireland in next 3 years €23billion
ECB funding put into our banks circa €100billion
Irish Central Bank money put into our banks in the last 2 weeks after the ECB cried no more, circa €30billion.

Circa €330billion all told.

Mother Of Divine
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 24, 2010, 08:42:39 AM
Quote from: muppet on November 23, 2010, 10:25:32 PM
Quote from: Declan on November 23, 2010, 10:18:56 PM
lads €85 billion ain't enough believe it or not. We are fubared beyond repair yet the govt are willing to saddle us with debt for for ever. Wake up and smell the coffee. It's all over. There is no way we can afford to repay it.   

Imagine you owned a box that someone put in €10 every year.
Imagine they were putting money in that box for a long long time.
Imagine they were doing that every year since the beginning of the Universe.
It still wouldn't cover our new national debt.

The 120 bn put into the banks recently isn't going to be part of the national debt. The idea is to replace it with private funding when the bailout manages to bring the bond yield down. If this bailout doesn't do the trick then it will be time to put AIB into insolvency and divvy up its assets to pay for the repayment of depositors. 330bn in debt is just unsustainable
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Fear ón Srath Bán on November 24, 2010, 10:22:29 AM
Quote from: An Gaeilgoir on November 24, 2010, 12:54:59 AM

Been speaking to a few people today about this very issue. If the Euro went tomorrow what would happen? Some of the lads at work have taken all of their savings out of their banks/ Credit Unions and converted half into Sterling and half into Dollars. is this a good idea or not?

I'd say that whilst Germany are still at the centre of the Eurozone that's somewhat premature -- Sterling and the USD aren't particularly robust in themselves (because the associated economies aren't particularly robust), and they're only looking so good at the minute because of the cataclysmic economic ructions within the PIGS.

If Germany were to unhook themselves from the euro, however, that'd be a whole different ballgame.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: INDIANA on November 24, 2010, 10:42:25 AM
Declan we're missing the most important point of all.

10 year German bonds are currently at 2.5%. I've no doubt these feckers are borrowing to buy these, selling them to us at 7% and making a nice bloody margin. We're been taking for a ride and its not a ride that involves Pamela Anderson.

Just Default- will have no effect on deposits. We cant pay back that amount anyway. As said adopting Sterling wouldnt be a bad move. They are literally having kittens at present because their export market could collapse.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Banana Man on November 24, 2010, 10:47:14 AM
Quote from: INDIANA on November 24, 2010, 10:42:25 AM
Declan we're missing the most important point of all.

10 year German bonds are currently at 2.5%. I've no doubt these feckers are borrowing to buy these, selling them to us at 7% and making a nice bloody margin. We're been taking for a ride and its not a ride that involves Pamela Anderson.

Just Default- will have no effect on deposits. We cant pay back that amount anyway. As said adopting Sterling wouldnt be a bad move. They are literally having kittens at present because their export market could collapse.

that's it, default and root them, they are like lonesharks at an international level. It's akin to the 3rd world debt where the interest servicing was beyond the individual countries and they couldn't cope and never made inroads into it.

I can forsee appeals in years to come asking the likes of the UK and Germany to write of their 3rd world debt to Ireland. It's pitiful and the boys in Leinster House are being bullied down this path they don't have to take. Root the lot of them, default. Default. Default.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on November 24, 2010, 10:54:55 AM
Random Thoughts


1. Every credible economist/ commentator that I have seen or heard in last few days has said that we cant afford the proposed bailout. The numbers do not stack up at anything other than an interest rate of 1-2%. The effective rates being mentioned of 7% will not be sustainable and will only kick the default can down the road. In the meantime state assets will be offloaded in a firesale.


2. Reversing the bank guarantee and uncoupling the irish bank bondholder debt and sovereign bondholder debt is both pragmataic and morally justified. The bank bondholders have the option of converting their debt to equity but they have no right to expect future generations of Irish taxpayers to repay their loans. In reality both equity and bond holders in Irish banks  have been wiped out. A new good bank should be created.

3. The sovereign debt needs to be eroded through inflation/devaluation. This probably means Ireland exiting the euro (though Germany leaving would have same effect ) .     

4. If exiting the euro leads to an EU exit Ireland needs to reinvent itself fast ...an offshore tax haven ( oversized IOM/Malta) might be an option . The Wealth tax guggested by SF is exactly the wrong thing to do imo.

5. There a far too many TDS in Ireland - one TD per consitituency is enough.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: whiskeysteve on November 24, 2010, 10:56:36 AM
the panic with AIB is more widespread than ever now, you know its bad when certain folk around you start talking about a 'bank run'.

Things are moving faster than even the more critical commentators have predicted. Collapse of the zombie banks would appear to be a matter of weeks, maybe days! I mean if they are still being funded even after that by ECB/IMF and joe public won't touch them at all, then you are surely talking about zombies that are fcking completely inanimate, i.e. good old traditional corpses.

And now more and more people bank with Northern (i.e. Danske), rabbo, etc, and are getting by. The lesson is really hammering home how we never really needed these banks that have been artificially propped up, just time and a bit of pain to restructure ourselves.

So its clearer than ever that the bank bailout money was nothing more than a massive heist.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 24, 2010, 11:10:14 AM


Martin Wolf in the FT
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9dc7e408-f73e-11df-9b06-00144feab49a.html#axzz16CHpd3C

The crisis is a huge challenge for Ireland, which should surely convert unsecured bank debt into equity rather than force its citizens to bail out all the improvident lenders
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hardy on November 24, 2010, 11:31:49 AM
It all seems to be coming apart. The whole point of the bailout, from the EU's point of view was to end the sustained attack on the Euro and convince the market that there was no point in taking on Portugal and Spain. It simply hasn't worked and instead their bond yields continue to climb. Political instability here, fomented on the day of the bailout announcement hasn't helped. Imagine - a world depression brought on by the Greens and Jackie Healy-Rae!

I have no idea what a meltdown of the world financial system would mean. But I have a spade and a big back garden and it might make sense to buy vegetable seeds and canned food. And an axe for gathering firewood, which will have to be stolen, as I don't own a plantation. And maybe a shotgun.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: ballinaman on November 24, 2010, 11:46:41 AM
So in summary....we're fcuked no matter what happens. Bailout won't be enough and will ruin us down the line. What will happen if we do default exactly? Apologies if has been explained already!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: INDIANA on November 24, 2010, 11:56:36 AM
Quote from: ballinaman on November 24, 2010, 11:46:41 AM
So in summary....we're fcuked no matter what happens. Bailout won't be enough and will ruin us down the line. What will happen if we do default exactly? Apologies if has been explained already!

the bondholders get burned the same f**kers Lenihan has been bailing out for 2 years. We dont pay back any of the loans- let AIB go to the wall or be sold to Santander and the likes. Exit the euro and join sterling. Convert the debt to equity for the bondholders regardless of whether they agree or not and start from scratch.
Will be a rough couple of years but we wont be paying for this the rest of our lives. Ourselves, our kids and their kids will be paying for this for the rest of their lives if this goes through.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Banana Man on November 24, 2010, 11:59:11 AM
Quote from: INDIANA on November 24, 2010, 11:56:36 AM
Quote from: ballinaman on November 24, 2010, 11:46:41 AM
So in summary....we're fcuked no matter what happens. Bailout won't be enough and will ruin us down the line. What will happen if we do default exactly? Apologies if has been explained already!

the bondholders get burned the same f**kers Lenihan has been bailing out for 2 years. We dont pay back any of the loans- let AIB go to the wall or be sold to Santander and the likes. Exit the euro and join sterling. Convert the debt to equity for the bondholders regardless of whether they agree or not and start from scratch.
Will be a rough couple of years but we wont be paying for this the rest of our lives. Ourselves, our kids and their kids will be paying for this for the rest of their lives if this goes through.

I seriously don't see the problem with this. I assume the bdget will still have to go through no matter what happens with the banks though only differene will be that all of the savings won't get swallowed up servicing 'new bank' debt....
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Fear ón Srath Bán on November 24, 2010, 12:01:34 PM
... and we need bank resolution leglislation -- useless fecks couldn't even have put that together in the last 2 years!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Donkeywalloper on November 24, 2010, 12:02:22 PM
Heard a guy on primetime last night saying that even at 5% interest it would equate to 4 Billion a year on service of the interest alone. That is aprox 5 grand for every person working to service the debt alone  never mind normal tax collection for everyday running of the country.

Mass emigration on the cards once again
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: ballinaman on November 24, 2010, 12:03:53 PM
Quote from: INDIANA on November 24, 2010, 11:56:36 AM
Quote from: ballinaman on November 24, 2010, 11:46:41 AM
So in summary....we're fcuked no matter what happens. Bailout won't be enough and will ruin us down the line. What will happen if we do default exactly? Apologies if has been explained already!

the bondholders get burned the same f**kers Lenihan has been bailing out for 2 years. We dont pay back any of the loans- let AIB go to the wall or be sold to Santander and the likes. Exit the euro and join sterling. Convert the debt to equity for the bondholders regardless of whether they agree or not and start from scratch.
Will be a rough couple of years but we wont be paying for this the rest of our lives. Ourselves, our kids and their kids will be paying for this for the rest of their lives if this goes through.
Sounds like the only option so. Jesus lads...worrying times.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: give her dixie on November 24, 2010, 12:07:09 PM
Don't bail out Ireland, free it.  Our billions will prolong the misery.
Better for the Irish to quit the euro and default on their debts

Douglas Carswell guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 23 November 2010 21.30 GMT

Britain has just promised £7bn towards a €90bn package aimed at rescuing Ireland's economy. But the bailout has not worked. Instead, we are sinking billions into a temporary rescue of the euro that will prolong Ireland's economic misery. So we should change course and prepare to offer a dramatically different solution – help Ireland decouple from the euro and allow the country to default on its debts.

A prosperous Ireland is in Britain's interest, as the chancellor, George Osborne, was quick to tell the House of Commons. It is not simply a case of economics. There is scarcely a street in Britain in which family ties do not bind the fate of our two islands. It is precisely because we want to see Ireland prosper that we should help it escape from the euro. It was euro membership, with ruinously low interest rates for more than a decade, that plunged Ireland into the economic abyss. Diehard euro advocates might ignore reality, but if Ireland had had interest rates set according to the needs of the Irish economy rather than a wider eurozone, it would not be in this credit-fuelled mess today.

For all the fanfare, the bailout has not reduced the amount Ireland owes by a single euro. Rather, it has seen Ireland accept more debt. Ireland has now gone beyond the point at which it can pay back what it owes. The country can either spend miserable years trapped in debt, with high taxes and higher emigration, or it can decouple from the euro – and default.

Decouple and default works. Remember how the political elite in Argentina, as in Ireland, pegged their own currency to another? Yet when the peso was decoupled from the dollar and Argentina defaulted in 2002, it was free to grow again. Argentina has been chugging along at an enviable 7% to 8% annual growth each year since.

Defaulting on its debts – impossible while Ireland remains in the euro – could follow if it were to decouple. While no one would ever then want to lend Ireland such mountains of money again, would that be such a bad thing?

What is certain is that as long as Ireland remains in the euro, its economic anguish will not end. Unable to devalue, Ireland will never become properly competitive – unless it suffers a dramatic fall in wealth. Yet a collapse in Irish wages is the inevitable outcome of the policy being pursued on both sides of the Irish Sea. How can that be in the interests of either us, or our closest neighbour?

Britain faces a time of unprecedented austerity. Yet many of the savings we have made in public services have now been soaked up by our massive contribution to bailing out the euro. Failure to bail out Ireland, some say, would place British banks in difficulty. But it is precisely because our banks are not out of the woods that we should keep any spare billions we have, for what still lurks on their balance sheets.

And the Irish bailout is also drawing us into potentially unlimited eurozone debt liabilities – in effect, it makes Britain a member of the euro as a debt union. Despite Osborne's best efforts to present it as an act of neighbourly goodwill, Britain had little choice but to cough up. Article 122 of the Lisbon treaty means we will have to hand over billions through the European Stabilisation Mechanism. Even if the chancellor were to say "no", the council of ministers would quickly overrule him. Thanks to the small print of our existing treaty obligations, should Portugal, Spain, or even Italy now seek a bailout, our potential liabilities would be unlimited.

Britain is discovering that it has been drawn into a long line of euro "debt dominoes", each one at risk from any of the others falling. Allowing the break-up of the euro could prove less ruinous than paying to keep everybody in line
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: johnneycool on November 24, 2010, 12:07:27 PM
Quote from: Hardy on November 24, 2010, 11:31:49 AM
It all seems to be coming apart. The whole point of the bailout, from the EU's point of view was to end the sustained attack on the Euro and convince the market that there was no point in taking on Portugal and Spain. It simply hasn't worked and instead their bond yields continue to climb. Political instability here, fomented on the day of the bailout announcement hasn't helped. Imagine - a world depression brought on by the Greens and Jackie Healy-Rae!

I have no idea what a meltdown of the world financial system would mean. But I have a spade and a big back garden and it might make sense to buy vegetable seeds and canned food. And an axe for gathering firewood, which will have to be stolen, as I don't own a plantation. And maybe a shotgun.

f**k 'em, run up big debts on credit cards, then f**k off. It's working for Dunne and the likes who seem to be riding off into the sunset whilst the rest pick up the tab.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on November 24, 2010, 12:39:24 PM
Could we make Ireland a Limited Company and then Just close down?
We could then start a new Country called The Island Republic of East Limerick And North Dingle (Ireland for short). We can leave Cork as the Peoples Republic if they want. We would be brand new with a young educated work force ready to go. No debts hanging over our heads.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 24, 2010, 12:56:06 PM
Quote from: Donkeywalloper on November 24, 2010, 12:02:22 PM
Heard a guy on primetime last night saying that even at 5% interest it would equate to 4 Billion a year on service of the interest alone. That is aprox 5 grand for every person working to service the debt alone  never mind normal tax collection for everyday running of the country. Mass emigration on the cards once again

It is not going to go through. The markets aren't buying it. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: NetNitrate on November 24, 2010, 01:20:17 PM
Country seriously needs an election before any four year budget is put through or before we sign up to any bailout. Right now country is being bullied by the government and Europe annd other large special interests. An election would send out a message that we have no intention of rushing into anything. Plus all those countries rushing to lend us money are doing it to make a few bob, not for "a friend in need" reasons. It's like when you're buying a house, the mortgage companies are all fighting for the business and then the mortgage companies sell off the debt to make more on that debt and then the debt gets sold many times over. So what you have is all these leeches making money on the bailout. UK is borring money to lend to us. And they will profit on that despite what Cameron says. It's a microcosm for what caused the global financial crisis in the first place.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: gallsman on November 24, 2010, 01:23:35 PM
Quote from: Donkeywalloper on November 24, 2010, 12:02:22 PM
Heard a guy on primetime last night saying that even at 5% interest it would equate to 4 Billion a year on service of the interest alone. That is aprox 5 grand for every person working to service the debt alone  never mind normal tax collection for everyday running of the country.

Mass emigration on the cards once again

True, but the idea is that 5% is considerably cheaper than what is available on the bond markets.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Fear ón Srath Bán on November 24, 2010, 01:26:47 PM

(http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2010/11/23/1290471633518/22.11.10-Steve-Bell-on-th-008.jpg)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Donkeywalloper on November 24, 2010, 01:34:29 PM
Quote from: gallsman on November 24, 2010, 01:23:35 PM
Quote from: Donkeywalloper on November 24, 2010, 12:02:22 PM
Heard a guy on primetime last night saying that even at 5% interest it would equate to 4 Billion a year on service of the interest alone. That is aprox 5 grand for every person working to service the debt alone  never mind normal tax collection for everyday running of the country.

Mass emigration on the cards once again

True, but the idea is that 5% is considerably cheaper than what is available on the bond markets.

Accepted. However that is based on current levels. Increases in unemployment figures, increases in emigration all increase the 5k total per head of working population further reducing the Goverment tax take for day to day business.  Its just not affordable. Thats also under the assumption that these clowns are able to negociate down to 5%. Wouldnt suprise me in the slightest if it was higher. Would you lend money to this group in power ?

Default is what most analysts i have seen recently seem to think what will happen anyway, if not now, not too far down the line. Its simply unaffordable.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Franko on November 24, 2010, 02:00:41 PM
Quote from: gallsman on November 24, 2010, 01:23:35 PM
Quote from: Donkeywalloper on November 24, 2010, 12:02:22 PM
Heard a guy on primetime last night saying that even at 5% interest it would equate to 4 Billion a year on service of the interest alone. That is aprox 5 grand for every person working to service the debt alone  never mind normal tax collection for everyday running of the country.

Mass emigration on the cards once again

True, but the idea is that 5% is considerably cheaper than what is available on the bond markets.

Yes but still completely unserviceable so pointless.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: An Gaeilgoir on November 24, 2010, 02:03:33 PM
Holy Christ, listening to the cuts in the public sector.............. i think liberty house will implode!!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 24, 2010, 02:06:12 PM
http://www.budget.gov.ie/The%20National%20Recovery%20Plan%202011-2014.pdf (http://www.budget.gov.ie/The%20National%20Recovery%20Plan%202011-2014.pdf)

Read and weep
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: An Gaeilgoir on November 24, 2010, 02:09:58 PM
SIPTU (Jack o Connor) calls is "a declaration of war on the ordinary working person". Nothing like understating things now that the Croke Park agreement is still in place.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Joxer on November 24, 2010, 02:14:07 PM
CAnt get into here in work..

Brief summary anyone?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: give her dixie on November 24, 2010, 02:14:29 PM
Just watching the BBC News and all over the UK thousands of students are protesting cuts.
Will there be any chance that people in Ireland will take to the streets?
I know there is a protest planned for this Saturday in Dublin, and I was wondering if many will bother to show up.

Will the Irish take to the streets in the same manner in which the French, Greeks and Portugese have?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 24, 2010, 02:18:42 PM
QuoteI know there is a protest planned for this Saturday in Dublin, and I was wondering if many will bother to show up.

I'll be there

Summary here - http://www.budget.gov.ie/Leaflet.pdf (http://www.budget.gov.ie/Leaflet.pdf)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: AbbeySider on November 24, 2010, 02:33:18 PM
Quote from: Declan on November 24, 2010, 02:18:42 PM
QuoteI know there is a protest planned for this Saturday in Dublin, and I was wondering if many will bother to show up.

I'll be there

Summary here - http://www.budget.gov.ie/Leaflet.pdf (http://www.budget.gov.ie/Leaflet.pdf)

The same one organised by Jim Corr?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uWQ6LXhKmaE
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 24, 2010, 02:34:42 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on November 24, 2010, 10:54:55 AM
Random Thoughts2. Reversing the bank guarantee and uncoupling the irish bank bondholder debt and sovereign bondholder debt is both pragmataic and morally justified. The bank bondholders have the option of converting their debt to equity but they have no right to expect future generations of Irish taxpayers to repay their loans. In reality both equity and bond holders in Irish banks  have been wiped out. A new good bank should be created.

If we could just do this it'd be half, nay, 90% of the battle.

The current guarantee runs out in december - is that right?  Let it be then, no more extensions.  We can't pay anyway, so there is no other option.

Vincent's show was very scary last night eh?  I want yer man somerville in the next cabinet, he's impressive, just that look he has would scare any negotiators into submission.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hardy on November 24, 2010, 02:39:06 PM
SUMMARY

Competitiveness, Growth and Employment
•   Reduce the minimum wage by €1 to €7.65;
•   Reform welfare system to incentivise work and eliminate unemployment traps;
•   Complete a review to eliminate anomalies in Registered Employment Agreements REAs) and Employment Regulation Orders (EROs) within three months;
•   Reinvigorate activation policies to ensure that unemployed people can make a swift return to work.
•   Promote rigorous competition in the professions and measures to reduce legal costs;
•   Take decisive actions to reduce waste and energy costs faced by businesses including the development of Smart Grids and renewable energy;
•   Enhance availability of technological infrastructure, in particular next generation broadband networks;
•   Lead efforts to reduce office rents in both the private and public sectors; and
•   Increase efficiency in public administration to reduce the costs for the private sector.
•   Implement sector-specific measures to assist an increase in exports as well as an increase in domestic demand.
•   Support innovation through the innovation fund, other enterprise supports and the tax system, and encourage small business development.

Expenditure Savings
•   Reduce current expenditure by €7 billion by 2014, bringing spending back to 2007 levels;
•   Reduce the cost of the public sector pay and pensions bill, social welfare, and public service programmes;
•   Achieve savings in social welfare expenditure of €2.8 billion by 2014 through a combination of enhanced control measures, labour activation, structural reform measures, a fall in the Live Register, and, if necessary, further rate reductions;
•   Cut public service staff numbers by 24,750 over 2008 levels, back to levels last seen in 2005;
•   Reduce the public sector pay bill by about €1.2 billion between 2010 and 2014;
•   Make more effective use of staffing resources with redeployment of staff within and across sectors of the public service to meet priority needs;
•   Reform work practices to provide more efficient public services with scarcer resources;
•   Introduce a reformed pension scheme for new entrants to the public service and reduce their pay by 10%;
•   Introduce a pension deduction for public service pensioners to yield €100 million in savings;
•   Reduce non-pay and non-social welfare spending by €3 billion over the period;
•   Increase the student contribution to the costs of third level education;
•   Introduce water metering by 2014; and
•   Reform and update the existing budget system beginning in Budget 2011.

Revenue measures
•   Maintain the 12½% corporation tax rate; this will not change;
•   Raise €5 billion over the period of the Plan - 40% of measures will be front-loaded;
•   Raise €1.9 billion through income tax changes;
•   Implement pension-related tax changes to yield €700 million, with €240 million in tax savings on the public service pension-related deduction;
•   bolish/curtail a range of tax expenditures yielding €755 million;
•   Increase the standard rate of VAT from 21% to 22% in 2013, with a further increase to 23% in 2014. These changes will yield €620 million
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: thejuice on November 24, 2010, 02:39:58 PM
QuoteThe Irish government announces its austerity plan

Among the spending cuts and tax rises are a reduction in the minimum wage, a new property tax and thousands of public sector job cuts.

The four-year plan is designed to save the state 15bn euros ($20bn; £13bn).

The government is also negotiating a bail-out package with the EU and IMF, expected to be worth about 85bn euros.

Tax rises

The recovery plan outlines plans to cut 24,750 public sector jobs, achieve savings in social welfare spending of 2.8bn euros, and raise an additional 1.9bn euros from income tax.

The government will also reduce the minimum wage by 1 euro, to 7.65 euros an hour, and raise VAT from 21% to 22% in 2013, with a further increase to 24% in 2014.

It said it wants to protect health and education spending as far as it can.

The government also said it would maintain the country's low level of corporation tax at 12.5%. Many commentators in the run up to the plan said raising this rate could be an easy way for the state to increase revenues.

Finance minister Brian Lenihan said the government would also introduce a property tax, called a site value tax, which will cost most homeowners up to 200 euros by 2014.

He added that the spending cuts would be concentrated in areas of highest spending - pay, pensions and social welfare.

"It is important to understand these are key drivers to expenditure and will be curtailed," he told a press conference.

'Future hope'

In total, the spending cuts will amount to 10bn euros while tax rises will bring in a further 5bn euros.

The government has already implemented 15bn euros of cuts since the onset of the global financial crisis.

Taoiseach Brian Cowen said he hoped the plan would "bring certainty to our people to make sure they have hope for the future".

"We can and will pull through as we have in the past. We love our country and we want to make sure our children have a future here too."

He added that the plan was also "about growing the economy and identifying those sectors of the economy that are proving to be successful".
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Joxer on November 24, 2010, 02:41:16 PM
They havent actually said how much they are reducing Social Welfare by have they?

Dark dark days ahead!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 24, 2010, 02:42:36 PM
all a bit vague and underwhelming really isn't it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 24, 2010, 02:43:50 PM
vat up to 24%, presumably they're going to close the border too!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: gallsman on November 24, 2010, 02:44:13 PM
Idiot Simpson from the BBC "Taoiseach...Do you blame yourselves or the rest of the world?"
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hereiam on November 24, 2010, 02:46:11 PM
My main question is how much is the diesel gona go up by.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: mannix on November 24, 2010, 03:04:45 PM
Jeepers, it looks like the end of the world, china owns the USA according to some in the USA and  the euro will collapse if Spain need a bailout. Time to buy those vegetable seeds and a cow or goat, and hope you don't need them.   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: thejuice on November 24, 2010, 03:08:46 PM
After listening to the government and skimming through the budget, there was a word that was missing that I think we all wanted to hear.

That word was 'bank'
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Rossie11 on November 24, 2010, 03:09:42 PM
Quote from: Franko on November 24, 2010, 02:00:41 PM
Quote from: gallsman on November 24, 2010, 01:23:35 PM
Quote from: Donkeywalloper on November 24, 2010, 12:02:22 PM
Heard a guy on primetime last night saying that even at 5% interest it would equate to 4 Billion a year on service of the interest alone. That is aprox 5 grand for every person working to service the debt alone  never mind normal tax collection for everyday running of the country.

Mass emigration on the cards once again

True, but the idea is that 5% is considerably cheaper than what is available on the bond markets.

Yes but still completely unserviceable so pointless.

Heres what Morgan Kelly wrote 2 weeks ago

How low is sufficiently low? Economists have a simple rule to calculate this. If the interest rate on a country's debt is lower than the sum of its growth rate and inflation rate, the ratio of debt to national income will shrink through time. After a massive credit bubble and with a shaky international economy, our growth prospects for the next decade are poor, and prices are likely to be static or falling. An interest rate beyond 2 per cent is likely to sink us.This means that if we are forced to repay the ECB at the 5 per cent interest rate imposed on Greece, our debt will rise faster than our means of servicing it, and we will inevitably face a State bankruptcy that will destroy what few shreds of our international reputation still remain.

Why would the ECB impose such a punitive interest rate on us? The answer is that we are too small to matter: the ECB's real concerns lie with Spain and Italy. Making an example of Ireland is an easy way to show that bailouts are not a soft option, and so frighten them into keeping their deficits under control.

There ya go.. its 2% or burst.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: EC Unique on November 24, 2010, 03:18:44 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on November 24, 2010, 02:43:50 PM
vat up to 24%, presumably they're going to close the border too!!

UK rates go to 20% in January.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on November 24, 2010, 04:24:13 PM
Do FG/Labour actually have a policy on all of this .... SF seem to be the only party not towing the line with the banks.

Morgan said: "Even solely dealing with our structural deficit, this plan is in the main a list of deflationary actions that will deepen and lengthen the recession.

"The real issue is that we are about to embark on an insane course of borrowing to fund a failed banking policy. We cannot afford this banking policy, we cannot afford this loan. Most importantly we cannot afford this government.

"We need real negotiators in there now to deal with the banks and burn the bondholders. Not a red cent more should go into Irish banks until their debts are restructured.



Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 24, 2010, 06:09:22 PM
Quote from: thejuice on November 24, 2010, 03:08:46 PM
After listening to the government and skimming through the budget, there was a word that was missing that I think we all wanted to hear.

That word was 'bank'

I'll put my hand up admit I am (fortunately) fairly well paid and short term work prospects look good (who knows after that). This budget will impact on my family but it appears to me to impact on the lower paid a lot more. While I have argued here that only half of all workers here pay tax and more need to start paying tax, this plan still seems to be a long way right of centre.

That means our extreme right wing ideology screwed up completely, needed a socialist bailout, which will now be paid for by putting apparently more of the burden on the lower paid/traditional left. Additionally those  traditionally most likely to march are among the hardest hit, e.g. students, pensioners, union members and the unemployed. IMHO this will end in tears.

Aside from that we have had no investigation into what happened. We haven't been told why we the citizens are responsible for picking up the tab for the banks failures. We haven't even had a single apology and not one person has accepted any blame for anything whatsoever.

Personally I can only accept austerity in parallel with complete transparency and accountability.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: pintsofguinness on November 24, 2010, 06:13:37 PM
Quote from: give her dixie on November 24, 2010, 02:14:29 PM
Just watching the BBC News and all over the UK thousands of students are protesting cuts.
Will there be any chance that people in Ireland will take to the streets?
I know there is a protest planned for this Saturday in Dublin, and I was wondering if many will bother to show up.

Will the Irish take to the streets in the same manner in which the French, Greeks and Portugese have?
No they won't, the Irish will bend over and take it up the hole as always.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Rossfan on November 24, 2010, 06:24:50 PM
Quote from: Hardy on November 24, 2010, 02:39:06 PM

•   Reinvigorate activation policies to ensure that unemployed people can make a swift return to work

Is there an Irish or English translation available anywhere?  >:(

A load of shite overall as the lower orders get screwed again to pay for the disgraceful behaviour of FFPDBankerDeveloperBuilderEstateAgentdome  >:( >:( >:( >:( >:(

FCUK OFF  FF. IN THE NAME OF GOD GO NOW !!!and let enda/Eamonn in .... Jesus help us
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: ross4life on November 24, 2010, 06:42:10 PM
FF doing the opposite to Robin hood, stealing from the poor to feed the rich!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 24, 2010, 06:54:43 PM
QuoteI'll put my hand up admit I am (fortunately) fairly well paid and short term work prospects look good (who knows after that). This budget will impact on my family but it appears to me to impact on the lower paid a lot more. While I have argued here that only half of all workers here pay tax and more need to start paying tax, this plan still seems to be a long way right of centre.

That means our extreme right wing ideology screwed up completely, needed a socialist bailout, which will now be paid for by putting apparently more of the burden on the lower paid/traditional left. Additionally those  traditionally most likely to march are among the hardest hit, e.g. students, pensioners, union members and the unemployed. IMHO this will end in tears.

Aside from that we have had no investigation into what happened. We haven't been told why we the citizens are responsible for picking up the tab for the banks failures. We haven't even had a single apology and not one person has accepted any blame for anything whatsoever.

Personally I can only accept austerity in parallel with complete transparency and accountability.

I'd be in a similar position Muppet and it's outrageous that in all of this there's no mention of the banks. And all built around an assumption of 2.75% growth per annum - Lunacy

Oh an just noticed this as well - http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/john-drennan/john-drennan-divided-dail-unites-to-give-itself-a-pay-rise-2410792.html (http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/john-drennan/john-drennan-divided-dail-unites-to-give-itself-a-pay-rise-2410792.html)
An official estimate of the money required to run the Dail in 2011 'sneaked' through the Dail last Thursday reveals that the recession stops at the gates of Leinster House.

In a touching scene, deputies across all parties suspended hostilities and agreed to the estimates without a single objection.

The estimates reveal that the cost of a Dail which serves fewer people than the population of cities such as greater Manchester, will in 2011 come to €112,983,000 -- which represents a drop of just €1.2m (or 1 per cent) on last year's spending.

But expenditure on the perks and services enjoyed by our TDs and senators will actually increase in certain areas next year.

The cost of salaries for TDs, senators and secretarial assistants will increase, while salaries of staff like those in catering and behind the Dail bar will decrease.
Not only have they given themselves a raise, increased the severence pay for people who lose their seats, and increased the pensions, but they've done so while CUTTING salaries for LH staff.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Puckoon on November 24, 2010, 07:01:55 PM
How can that actually be allowed or tolerated?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 24, 2010, 07:13:06 PM
QuoteHow can that actually be allowed or tolerated?

I know it's absolute lunacy Puck - Just hope it people will wake up and realise what's happening

I don't always agree with Joe but he's spot on here
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-W2v8gaANb8 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-W2v8gaANb8)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Lecale2 on November 24, 2010, 07:17:44 PM
Mad stuff altogether.

Ireland should default. There's no way a small country can ever pay off debt of that scale.

They can only default on the banks bonds if we have a balanced budget because no one will loan us a dime when we do. If we take a big hit and balance the budget in a year we can escape the debt and in 5 years time we'll be back stronger.

Trying to pay off all the debts of the banks will kill the country sllowly. So really big cuts in everything now. Explain to the public that we simply have no money. Then default and refuse to pay the British and German banks a cent! F*ck them!

At the end of a really bad 2 years we'll have no debt at all and save a fortune in interest!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on November 24, 2010, 07:19:27 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on November 24, 2010, 06:24:50 PM
Quote from: Hardy on November 24, 2010, 02:39:06 PM

•   Reinvigorate activation policies to ensure that unemployed people can make a swift return to work

Is there an Irish or English translation available anywhere?  >:(

A load of shite overall as the lower orders get screwed again to pay for the disgraceful behaviour of FFPDBankerDeveloperBuilderEstateAgentdome  >:( >:( >:( >:( >:(

FCUK OFF  FF. IN THE NAME OF GOD GO NOW !!!and let enda/Eamonn in .... Jesus help us

Just watching the press conference on playback, after watching Primetime and the 6-One news on RTE player last night, I think my anger has changed to being depressed about the whole thing. Anyone else feel like its the last stages of a war that we are about to lose  :(
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 24, 2010, 07:40:33 PM
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/11/24/415436/a-de-facto-nationalisation-of-the-irish-banking-sector/ (http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/11/24/415436/a-de-facto-nationalisation-of-the-irish-banking-sector/)


QuoteOn Newstalk they where talking of figures of €350 Billion plus to pay back/cost us over the next few years between increased taxation, interest repayments and repaying the lump sum loans, I will admit to being lost to how they where calculating these figures. Can figures like this be actually right! They where saying that it would take the rest of a young adults life before we had paid it off, because we have to run a country at the same time. They where actually saying that figure may be conservative. Can anyone explain that was listening to Newstalk this morning, I don't think I have explained too well.

Existing National Debt of circa €90billion;
Bailout debt to be incurred over the next 3 years €85billion
Bonds falling due to be paid by Ireland in next 3 years €23billion
ECB funding put into our banks circa €100billion
Irish Central Bank money put into our banks in the last 2 weeks after the ECB cried no more, circa €30billion.

Circa €330billion all told.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 24, 2010, 07:45:53 PM
Quote from: Declan on November 24, 2010, 07:40:33 PM
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/11/24/415436/a-de-facto-nationalisation-of-the-irish-banking-sector/ (http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/11/24/415436/a-de-facto-nationalisation-of-the-irish-banking-sector/)


QuoteOn Newstalk they where talking of figures of €350 Billion plus to pay back/cost us over the next few years between increased taxation, interest repayments and repaying the lump sum loans, I will admit to being lost to how they where calculating these figures. Can figures like this be actually right! They where saying that it would take the rest of a young adults life before we had paid it off, because we have to run a country at the same time. They where actually saying that figure may be conservative. Can anyone explain that was listening to Newstalk this morning, I don't think I have explained too well.

Existing National Debt of circa €90billion;
Bailout debt to be incurred over the next 3 years €85billion
Bonds falling due to be paid by Ireland in next 3 years €23billion
ECB funding put into our banks circa €100billion
Irish Central Bank money put into our banks in the last 2 weeks after the ECB cried no more, circa €30billion.

Circa €330billion all told.

Is some of the bailout money not to refund the ECB money? Or am I guilty of over-optimism?

If our debt is €330 Billion an optimistic 5% interest would mean €16.5 Billion per annum.
For less than 1.9 Million workers or nearly €9,000 p/a for each of them.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on November 24, 2010, 07:53:42 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 24, 2010, 07:45:53 PM
Quote from: Declan on November 24, 2010, 07:40:33 PM
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/11/24/415436/a-de-facto-nationalisation-of-the-irish-banking-sector/ (http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/11/24/415436/a-de-facto-nationalisation-of-the-irish-banking-sector/)


QuoteOn Newstalk they where talking of figures of €350 Billion plus to pay back/cost us over the next few years between increased taxation, interest repayments and repaying the lump sum loans, I will admit to being lost to how they where calculating these figures. Can figures like this be actually right! They where saying that it would take the rest of a young adults life before we had paid it off, because we have to run a country at the same time. They where actually saying that figure may be conservative. Can anyone explain that was listening to Newstalk this morning, I don't think I have explained too well.

Existing National Debt of circa €90billion;
Bailout debt to be incurred over the next 3 years €85billion
Bonds falling due to be paid by Ireland in next 3 years €23billion
ECB funding put into our banks circa €100billion
Irish Central Bank money put into our banks in the last 2 weeks after the ECB cried no more, circa €30billion.

Circa €330billion all told.

Is some of the bailout money not to refund the ECB money? Or am I guilty of over-optimism?

If our debt is €330 Billion an optimistic 5% interest would mean €16.5 Billion per annum.
For less than 1.9 Million workers or nearly €9,000 p/a for each of them.

Thanks Declan, I actually deleted my post because I thought I must have been totally wrong. Glad you quoted me before I deleted my post. Its crazy stuff that we could have €330 Billion debt. We are too small to support such debt.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 24, 2010, 07:58:06 PM
Just wondering, imagine if we sent an Irish commissioner into say Portugal or Spain to tell them how to run their economies. Watching Olli Rehn makes me think how we would expect them to react to:

Maire Geoghagan-Quinn?
Charlie McCreevy??
Padraig Flynn???
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 24, 2010, 08:06:11 PM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2010/11/how_much_capital_do_irelands_b.html (http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2010/11/how_much_capital_do_irelands_b.html)

Update 1705: Bond markets have given a massive thumbs down to the Irish National Recovery Plan, which rather implies that investors don't think it's deliverable in Ireland's traumatic political climate.

The yield on the Irish 10-year bond has risen to 8.89% – yikes, back to record levels.

As for strike-riven Portugal, whose banks (like Ireland's) are excessively dependent on central bank support (to the tune of more than 8% of their liabilities, on my estimates), its 10-year government bonds are yielding 7%.

Meanwhile the yield on the Spanish 10-year has crept over 5%, for the first time since 2002.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 24, 2010, 08:16:20 PM
Quote from: Declan on November 24, 2010, 07:40:33 PM
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/11/24/415436/a-de-facto-nationalisation-of-the-irish-banking-sector/ (http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/11/24/415436/a-de-facto-nationalisation-of-the-irish-banking-sector/)


QuoteOn Newstalk they where talking of figures of €350 Billion plus to pay back/cost us over the next few years between increased taxation, interest repayments and repaying the lump sum loans, I will admit to being lost to how they where calculating these figures. Can figures like this be actually right! They where saying that it would take the rest of a young adults life before we had paid it off, because we have to run a country at the same time. They where actually saying that figure may be conservative. Can anyone explain that was listening to Newstalk this morning, I don't think I have explained too well.

Existing National Debt of circa €90billion;
Bailout debt to be incurred over the next 3 years €85billion
Bonds falling due to be paid by Ireland in next 3 years €23billion
ECB funding put into our banks circa €100billion
Irish Central Bank money put into our banks in the last 2 weeks after the ECB cried no more, circa €30billion.

Circa €330billion all told.
I think the 100Bn from the ecb will be repayable from all bank inflows over the next few years, in other words when you and I are paying our mortgages that money replaces the ecb 100m - or have i misinterpreted?

What I'd like to know is that whilst we have built up all that debt on one side, what assets are we accruing on the other, what have the banks got that's worth something and what is it worth and secured on?  You know the type of thing, all those big hotels around the globe that paddy owns now etc...  There's must be something other than that estate in carrick on shannon?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Pangurban on November 24, 2010, 08:16:34 PM
A 5 yr.old child would be able to reason that a small Country like Ireland could not meet the interest payments on our current debts, yet alone repay them. We must default on Bank Guarantees, and burn the Bondholders, not just for own sakes, but the next three generations. The people who are lending the Money have no care for Ireland or its people, they want to save the rotten avaricious Banks, or the Money they have invested. They are waging economic war on this country, and are uncon, cerned about how many casualities, they cause. Those casualities will be our children and grandchildren
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 24, 2010, 08:36:52 PM
Holy Jaysus these guys are deluded
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSWLA902620101124?feedType=RSS&feedName=financialsSector&rpc=43 (http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSWLA902620101124?feedType=RSS&feedName=financialsSector&rpc=43)

6% interest  ??? ???
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 24, 2010, 08:55:50 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 24, 2010, 06:09:22 PM
Quote from: thejuice on November 24, 2010, 03:08:46 PM
After listening to the government and skimming through the budget, there was a word that was missing that I think we all wanted to hear.

That word was 'bank'

I'll put my hand up admit I am (fortunately) fairly well paid and short term work prospects look good (who knows after that). This budget will impact on my family but it appears to me to impact on the lower paid a lot more. While I have argued here that only half of all workers here pay tax and more need to start paying tax, this plan still seems to be a long way right of centre.

That means our extreme right wing ideology screwed up completely, needed a socialist bailout, which will now be paid for by putting apparently more of the burden on the lower paid/traditional left. Additionally those  traditionally most likely to march are among the hardest hit, e.g. students, pensioners, union members and the unemployed. IMHO this will end in tears.

Aside from that we have had no investigation into what happened. We haven't been told why we the citizens are responsible for picking up the tab for the banks failures. We haven't even had a single apology and not one person has accepted any blame for anything whatsoever.

Personally I can only accept austerity in parallel with complete transparency and accountability.

I think that says it all.
And now to the banks , is e cas mo bhuartha

Via FT, RBS not too convinced.

"We believe the quoted banks need Eur16bn of capital and Eur38bn of a funding lifeline or Eur54bn in total from the EU/IMF. We have made an allowance for further deposit outflows on the back of the instability of this past week and the multinotch sovereign downgrade by S&P and imminent similar action from Moody's. This assumes the balance sheet stands still and that there is no further terming out of the balance sheet. If we include these two items then the funding component of the quoted banks needs would rise materially."

The people can't be expected to take any more of this. It's not their war. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: demusicman on November 24, 2010, 10:03:51 PM
http://youtu.be/qtivSTZrezc
????
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: FL/MAYO on November 24, 2010, 10:14:11 PM
Bust Is Better Than a Bailout for Irish

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-23/bust-is-better-than-a-bailout-for-irish-patient-matthew-lynn.html
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on November 24, 2010, 10:31:16 PM
Quote from: FL/MAYO on November 24, 2010, 10:14:11 PM
Bust Is Better Than a Bailout for Irish

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-23/bust-is-better-than-a-bailout-for-irish-patient-matthew-lynn.html

Jesus this getting scarier and scarier, lads do you reckon our country has a future?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 24, 2010, 10:52:30 PM
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on November 24, 2010, 10:31:16 PM

Jesus this getting scarier and scarier, lads do you reckon our country has a future?
[/quote]


We know a few things about the future. The sun will rise tomorrow. Ireland will still be around whatever happens. Mayo won't win the all-Ireland for another while.

If Ireland defaults it won't be the end of the world.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: armaghniac on November 24, 2010, 10:56:49 PM
QuoteJesus this getting scarier and scarier, lads do you reckon our country has a future?

Yes. The future will have started by the time you read this post.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on November 24, 2010, 10:57:03 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 24, 2010, 10:52:30 PM
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on November 24, 2010, 10:31:16 PM

Jesus this getting scarier and scarier, lads do you reckon our country has a future?


We know a few things about the future. The sun will rise tomorrow. Ireland will still be around whatever happens. Mayo Galway hurlers won't win the all-Ireland for another while.  ;)

If Ireland defaults it won't be the end of the world.
[/quote]
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on November 24, 2010, 10:57:44 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on November 24, 2010, 10:56:49 PM
QuoteJesus this getting scarier and scarier, lads do you reckon our country has a future?

Yes. The future will have started by the time you read this post.

But your post is the past  ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on November 24, 2010, 10:59:36 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 24, 2010, 10:52:30 PM
We know a few things about the future. The sun will rise tomorrow. Ireland will still be around whatever happens. Mayo won't win the all-Ireland for another while.

If Ireland defaults it won't be the end of the world.

Post of the arrives year late in November.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on November 24, 2010, 11:00:53 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on November 24, 2010, 10:59:36 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 24, 2010, 10:52:30 PM
We know a few things about the future. The sun will rise tomorrow. Ireland will still be around whatever happens. Mayo won't win the all-Ireland for another while.

If Ireland defaults it won't be the end of the world.

Post of the arrives year late in November.

Was that - Post of the year arrives in late November!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 24, 2010, 11:02:38 PM
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on November 24, 2010, 10:57:03 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 24, 2010, 10:52:30 PM
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on November 24, 2010, 10:31:16 PM

Jesus this getting scarier and scarier, lads do you reckon our country has a future?


We know a few things about the future. The sun will rise tomorrow. Ireland will still be around whatever happens. Mayo Galway hurlers won't win the all-Ireland for another while.  ;)

If Ireland defaults it won't be the end of the world.
[/quote]

Galway hurlers have less problems in the head department than Mayo footballers so they will win before Mayo but probably not before AIB disappear.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on November 24, 2010, 11:03:11 PM
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on November 24, 2010, 11:00:53 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on November 24, 2010, 10:59:36 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 24, 2010, 10:52:30 PM
We know a few things about the future. The sun will rise tomorrow. Ireland will still be around whatever happens. Mayo won't win the all-Ireland for another while.

If Ireland defaults it won't be the end of the world.

Post of the arrives year late in November.

Was that - Post of the year arrives in late November!

Yip  :-[ :D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 24, 2010, 11:05:40 PM
I was listening to Caoineadh Airt ui Laoghaire earlier this evening.
Ireland has overcome far worse trials than Fianna Fail and neoliberalism.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 24, 2010, 11:08:37 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 24, 2010, 11:02:38 PM
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on November 24, 2010, 10:57:03 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 24, 2010, 10:52:30 PM
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on November 24, 2010, 10:31:16 PM

Jesus this getting scarier and scarier, lads do you reckon our country has a future?


We know a few things about the future. The sun will rise tomorrow. Ireland will still be around whatever happens. Mayo Galway hurlers won't win the all-Ireland for another while.  ;)

If Ireland defaults it won't be the end of the world.

Galway hurlers have less problems in the head department than Mayo footballers so they will win before Mayo but probably not before AIB disappear.

At this rate I think Bavaria will win the All-Ireland before Mayo or Galway.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: armaghniac on November 24, 2010, 11:36:52 PM
QuoteAt this rate I think Bavaria will win the All-Ireland before Mayo or Galway.


Haven't you heard, Mayo has been pledged to Bavaria if the loans are not repaid in full. Not the wurst!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on November 24, 2010, 11:50:11 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on November 24, 2010, 11:36:52 PM
QuoteAt this rate I think Bavaria will win the All-Ireland before Mayo or Galway.


Haven't you heard, Mayo has been pledged to Bavaria if the loans are not repaid in full. Not the wurst!

Of course Ulsters got an over-burdened civil service and a divided society, Leinsters got a huge debt burden and the two Brians, while Mayo has the Oil & Gas reserves and fishing territory to a huge chunk of the North Atlantic and the most beautiful corner of the planet for all those Deutchlanders to retire. Mayo has got something to offer.

By the way the Connacht flag already combines a German bird of prey and a combative hand of the O'Connor Clan (Kings of Connacht and High Kings of Ireland)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 24, 2010, 11:53:46 PM
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on November 24, 2010, 11:50:11 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on November 24, 2010, 11:36:52 PM
QuoteAt this rate I think Bavaria will win the All-Ireland before Mayo or Galway.


Haven't you heard, Mayo has been pledged to Bavaria if the loans are not repaid in full. Not the wurst!

Of course Ulsters got an over-burdened civil service and a divided society, Leinsters got a huge debt burden and the two Brians, while Mayo has the Oil & Gas reserves and fishing territory to a huge chunk of the North Atlantic and the most beautiful corner of the planet for all those Deutchlanders to retire. Mayo has got something to offer.

I'll give you €2.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on November 24, 2010, 11:56:58 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 24, 2010, 11:53:46 PM
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on November 24, 2010, 11:50:11 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on November 24, 2010, 11:36:52 PM
QuoteAt this rate I think Bavaria will win the All-Ireland before Mayo or Galway.


Haven't you heard, Mayo has been pledged to Bavaria if the loans are not repaid in full. Not the wurst!

Of course Ulsters got an over-burdened civil service and a divided society, Leinsters got a huge debt burden and the two Brians, while Mayo has the Oil & Gas reserves and fishing territory to a huge chunk of the North Atlantic and the most beautiful corner of the planet for all those Deutchlanders to retire. Mayo has got something to offer.

I'll give you €2.

(http://www.gleesongroup.ie/images/brands/Lager/Bavaria/bavaria.jpg)

€2 is a bit steep!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 24, 2010, 11:57:59 PM
http://howmuchpooreraminow.com/ (http://howmuchpooreraminow.com/)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on November 25, 2010, 09:38:25 AM
I think we need to split this in two :

1. The Bank Debt/ Bondholders
2. The Sovereign Debt/ Bondholders

Right now the bank guarantee makes them pretty much inseperable. A bank default has to happen but the blame for that rests on management of the banks, those that lent to them ( the bondholders), and those that regulated them the ECB/our regulator/government. The banks should only be the taxpayers problem to a very minor extent if at all. If we stop digging in that particular hole then maybe there will be no need to default on the sovereign debt. The current arrangement is actually interfering with the operation of a proper market  which would have forced these failed businesses into liquidation long ago.

With potential  bank debt liabilities gone from the national debt then maybe a sovereign default can be avoided . The can can be kicked down the road as they say.  A sovereign default will be tricky. In reality countrys dont "default" ...they usually devalue their currency. So long as Ireland are stuck in the euro that cant happen. Circumstances elsewhere might bring that to ahead beforehand.

For now the top priority should be the unravelling of the guarantee . Let the ECB save the banks if they must.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: armaghniac on November 25, 2010, 10:06:20 AM
Olii Rehn was on the radio this morning talking about "investors" sharing the pain and not all of the burden falling on taxpayers. As a taxpayer, I approve.

The sovereign debt is manageable, with some belt tightening, if the bank thing can be sorted. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 25, 2010, 10:22:41 AM
I agree, bcarrier. The sovereign has to be protected at all costs.  Otherwise there will be no option other than to do some sort of a structured default.

The people do not deserve to be saddled with up to and perhaps beyond €100bn of debt arising from the banking crisis.
Even the ones who voted Fianna Fáil..
 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hound on November 25, 2010, 10:54:07 AM
Quote from: muppet on November 24, 2010, 06:09:22 PM
I'll put my hand up admit I am (fortunately) fairly well paid and short term work prospects look good (who knows after that). This budget will impact on my family but it appears to me to impact on the lower paid a lot more. While I have argued here that only half of all workers here pay tax and more need to start paying tax, this plan still seems to be a long way right of centre.

That means our extreme right wing ideology screwed up completely, needed a socialist bailout, which will now be paid for by putting apparently more of the burden on the lower paid/traditional left. Additionally those  traditionally most likely to march are among the hardest hit, e.g. students, pensioners, union members and the unemployed. IMHO this will end in tears.

Ah c'mon muppet, you cannot call our income tax system extreme right-wing. I doubt there's a more left wing income tax system in the EU. In fact, as you said yourself, it was too left wing as far too many people pay no tax whatsoever - and that had to be done because dole was too high.

8% of workers earn over €75,000 and they contribute 60% of all income tax.

People earning €350 per week didnt have to pay one cent in tax. That was just totally unsustainable. Steady increases over the next 4 years will see them paying €11 a week in tax from 2014. I'd imagine the dole decreases will be similar.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: INDIANA on November 25, 2010, 11:02:40 AM
Quote from: Hound on November 25, 2010, 10:54:07 AM
Quote from: muppet on November 24, 2010, 06:09:22 PM
I'll put my hand up admit I am (fortunately) fairly well paid and short term work prospects look good (who knows after that). This budget will impact on my family but it appears to me to impact on the lower paid a lot more. While I have argued here that only half of all workers here pay tax and more need to start paying tax, this plan still seems to be a long way right of centre.

That means our extreme right wing ideology screwed up completely, needed a socialist bailout, which will now be paid for by putting apparently more of the burden on the lower paid/traditional left. Additionally those  traditionally most likely to march are among the hardest hit, e.g. students, pensioners, union members and the unemployed. IMHO this will end in tears.


Ah c'mon muppet, you cannot call our income tax system extreme right-wing. I doubt there's a more left wing income tax system in the EU. In fact, as you said yourself, it was too left wing as far too many people pay no tax whatsoever - and that had to be done because dole was too high.

8% of workers earn over €75,000 and they contribute 60% of all income tax.

People earning €350 per week didnt have to pay one cent in tax. That was just totally unsustainable. Steady increases over the next 4 years will see them paying €11 a week in tax from 2014. I'd imagine the dole decreases will be similar.

Spot on. However Continental salaries are lower because even the underpriviledged have access to good Medical Care. We dont.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 25, 2010, 11:10:16 AM
End game approaching fast for the Christmas release of Reality on Merrion St...Contingency: the Final Frontier.

Looks like someone is listening to Uncle Vinny – one of Europe's biggest clearing house has just increased the additional cost of handling Irish debt by 50% ( up from 35% to 45%)  - it was 15% three weeks ago..they doubled it to 30% last week...so Brian's would say things must be looking better that they only increased this week by 50% RATHER THAN DOUBLING!).

Result : Irish banks even MORE reliant on ECB this morning ( and we thought they couldn't get any more dependent)

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/89d64ace-f87a-11df-8b7b-00144feab49a.html?ftcamp=rss#axzz16I21f2ca (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/89d64ace-f87a-11df-8b7b-00144feab49a.html?ftcamp=rss#axzz16I21f2ca)

Quote8% of workers earn over €75,000 and they contribute 60% of all income tax.
You cannot compare tax regimes without looking at the spending power of the nett income, We've had more tax breaks than anything else from car parks to hotels to private hospitals and nursing homes and it just doesn't make sense to just compare the income tax rate.

Another stat I've seen is that 1% of the population have 34% of the wealth and just saw this one as well:
The 125 Page report Survey on Income and living conditions for 2009 has just been released from the CSO.

http://www.cso.ie/releasespublicatio...rrent/silc.pdf (http://www.cso.ie/releasespublicatio...rrent/silc.pdf)

One thing to pop out is the 17.3% deprivation rate up from 13.8% in 2008.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 25, 2010, 11:25:00 AM
Quote from: Hound on November 25, 2010, 10:54:07 AM
Quote from: muppet on November 24, 2010, 06:09:22 PM
I'll put my hand up admit I am (fortunately) fairly well paid and short term work prospects look good (who knows after that). This budget will impact on my family but it appears to me to impact on the lower paid a lot more. While I have argued here that only half of all workers here pay tax and more need to start paying tax, this plan still seems to be a long way right of centre.

That means our extreme right wing ideology screwed up completely, needed a socialist bailout, which will now be paid for by putting apparently more of the burden on the lower paid/traditional left. Additionally those  traditionally most likely to march are among the hardest hit, e.g. students, pensioners, union members and the unemployed. IMHO this will end in tears.

Ah c'mon muppet, you cannot call our income tax system extreme right-wing. I doubt there's a more left wing income tax system in the EU. In fact, as you said yourself, it was too left wing as far too many people pay no tax whatsoever - and that had to be done because dole was too high.

8% of workers earn over €75,000 and they contribute 60% of all income tax.

People earning €350 per week didnt have to pay one cent in tax. That was just totally unsustainable. Steady increases over the next 4 years will see them paying €11 a week in tax from 2014. I'd imagine the dole decreases will be similar.

Hound I am certainly not calling our tax system right wing. It is this 4 year plan that I am calling right wing. The only serious pain I see for myself is my increased pension contributions (this may dramatically increase the pensions time bomb we were going to have anyway).
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Donkeywalloper on November 25, 2010, 11:37:25 AM
Seems to be quite a few ( of what appears fairly intelligent) anaylsts saying that the budget if it goes through is not going to sort the problem. A week or two after the budget they are still expecting  the banks to go, and i use a technical term, tits up !
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 25, 2010, 11:45:44 AM
The capital markets can't ask the people of Ireland to give any more than the 15bn.

As Mariah Carey says to AIB ,

i can't give, if living is without you 
i can't giviiive , i can't give any more
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 25, 2010, 11:50:31 AM
Mail from a mate:

the 4 year plan in the national interest is actaully a 2 month re- election plan in Fianna Fail's interest.

Hit social welfare - won't vote fianna fail anyway.
Hit minimum wage - young people , lot won't vote , most won't vote Fianna Fail anyway.
Leave pensions alone - old people will vote and will vote fianna fail
Leave PS alone - con public servants that fianna fail are on their side even though FF know croke park agreement will not last.
Load a lot of the adjustments onto 2012 - 2014 so if Fianna Fail don't get elected again fine Gael and Labour will be there for the most savage cuts and both hands tied behind their backs .

Negotiate deal with IMF/EU re. banks that will leave alll the citizens of this country screwed and fg / lab taking the flak.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 25, 2010, 11:55:16 AM
FF are in serious meltdown mode. I have been watching various programmes on the RTÉ player over the last week and so far have seen :

-Pat Carey utterly humiliated on Prime Time . His body language was dreadful.

-Mary Hanafin admit she made a declaration about there being no need for a bailout without being informed of what was going on and excusing it by stating she was jetlagged.

-Dick Roche state on Prime Time that if Ireland hadn't put in place the bank guarantee the situation would be awful now. As opposed to what?

-Tony Killeen lose his cool totally when challenged by Fintan O'Toole on Pat Kenny's show. He was like some sort of cornered rat.

FF is in a dreadful state if the top ministers can't cope with their media duties.  Imagine how this shame is going down amongst FF activists
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Tubberman on November 25, 2010, 12:22:48 PM
QuoteMeanwhile, a spokesman for the EU Economics and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn has indicated that senior bond holders may have to share the burden of the Irish bank bail-out.
http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1125/budget-business.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1125/budget-business.html)

This is a change in tack from Europe. They've obviously realised there isn't a hope in hell that Ireland could ever afford to pay back the interest (never mind the capital) if we had to take the full €85bn.

Richard Bruton also said on Morning Ireland this morning that he would be in favour of defaulting and letting the bondholders take some of the hit if the repayments became too high for Ireland.
Micheál Martin said that default couldn't be countenanced  ::)  I'd say he might change his tune, now that Rehn has.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: lynchbhoy on November 25, 2010, 12:25:39 PM
all fine gael need to do is jettison inda keny and FG will have a landslide victory - right now they look like winners of any future election, but you never know what pact FF will do along with labour to hold onto the reins !
I'd still not be happy with fg in power if kenny was leader. Noonan or even varadker not kenny.
he is ff esque twit with no economic nous.

I was shocked to see the public sector let off effectively scot free from wage cuts etc. that is not acceptable.
There should be massive axe swinging and also huge top salary cuts to the top tiers of people who lets face it, dont actually EARN the money they get.
the top dogs in ESB, Bor Gais etc etc - they are on half a million euro salaries a year. these have to be cut by more than half. the top public sector and civil service execs likewise.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hardy on November 25, 2010, 12:36:47 PM
Quote from: Tubberman on November 25, 2010, 12:22:48 PM
QuoteMeanwhile, a spokesman for the EU Economics and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn has indicated that senior bond holders may have to share the burden of the Irish bank bail-out.[/][/]

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1125/budget-business.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1125/budget-business.html)[/]
[/]

This is a change in tack from Europe. They've obviously realised there isn't a hope in hell that Ireland could ever afford to pay back the interest (never mind the capital) if we had to take the full €85bn. [/]

Richard Bruton also said on Morning Ireland this morning that he would be in favour of defaulting and letting the bondholders take some of the hit if the repayments became too high for Ireland. [/]
Micheál Martin said that default couldn't be countenanced  ::)  I'd say he might change his tune, now that Rehn has.[/]


I think RTÉ are reading it wrong in that report. I was listening and I took Amadeo's comments about bond holders sharing the pain to be a reiteration of Angela Merkel et al's statements of a couple of weeks ago about FUTURE bonds. They were at pains then to point out that this did not apply to currently held bonds and that the speculators must be baled out on all existing liabilities.

It was Richard Bruton's statement that was game-breaking to my mind and I'm surprised there hasn't been more comment on it. Micheál Martin was practically having caniptions and more or less saying "you can't say that". This was effectively the incoming government saying it WILL burn the bond holders (at least partialy - he said something about "sharing"the loss). Surely that scuppers the whole bailout and negates its raison d'etre as far as the EU/ECB/IMF are concerned - to reassure the markets and save Spain, Portugal and, by extension, the Euro.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 25, 2010, 12:56:24 PM
FG seem to be moving things up a gear with Noonan clarifying the budget details are irrelevant but that the sum cut isn't and Bruton bringing bonds into it and then saying they wouldn't cut the minimum wage. It shows that not all is lost and that once FF get shown the door there will be some fresh thinking.
Hopefully that will give people some reassurance that politics hasn't failed entirely even though FF has.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: fearbrags on November 25, 2010, 01:45:38 PM
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/john-drennan/john-drennan-divided-dail-unites-to-give-itself-a-pay-rise-2410792.html
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 25, 2010, 01:47:13 PM
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on November 24, 2010, 11:56:58 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 24, 2010, 11:53:46 PM
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on November 24, 2010, 11:50:11 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on November 24, 2010, 11:36:52 PM
QuoteAt this rate I think Bavaria will win the All-Ireland before Mayo or Galway.


Haven't you heard, Mayo has been pledged to Bavaria if the loans are not repaid in full. Not the wurst!

Of course Ulsters got an over-burdened civil service and a divided society, Leinsters got a huge debt burden and the two Brians, while Mayo has the Oil & Gas reserves and fishing territory to a huge chunk of the North Atlantic and the most beautiful corner of the planet for all those Deutchlanders to retire. Mayo has got something to offer.

I'll give you €2.

(http://www.gleesongroup.ie/images/brands/Lager/Bavaria/bavaria.jpg)

€2 is a bit steep!
but what about all the dolly birds in the orange dresses?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 25, 2010, 01:53:50 PM
QuoteI think RTÉ are reading it wrong in that report. I was listening and I took Amadeo's comments about bond holders sharing the pain to be a reiteration of Angela Merkel et al's statements of a couple of weeks ago about FUTURE bonds. They were at pains then to point out that this did not apply to currently held bonds and that the speculators must be baled out on all existing liabilities

That would be my understanding as well.

We cannot afford this and whoever says to me at the door that we will separate the public deficit from the bank debt and tell them to get lost has my vote
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on November 25, 2010, 01:57:05 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 25, 2010, 12:56:24 PM
FG seem to be moving things up a gear with Noonan clarifying the budget details are irrelevant but that the sum cut isn't and Bruton bringing bonds into it and then saying they wouldn't cut the minimum wage. It shows that not all is lost and that once FF get shown the door there will be some fresh thinking.
Hopefully that will give people some reassurance that politics hasn't failed entirely even though FF has.

They had an opportunity to do that by backing SFs no-confidence motion but they shit themselves. Coulda woulda shoulda. They have had more opportunities to bring down the Government and then do what they want than hot dinners.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 25, 2010, 02:57:32 PM
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/1125/breaking18.html (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/1125/breaking18.html)

Bond yields hit new high

Irish 10-year bond yields rose above 9 per cent today after LCH Clearnet increased the cost of trading the country's securities for the third time in as many weeks.

At 1.53pm, the yield was at 9.011 per cent, up 0.147 per cent. The spread to the bund was 630.7 points.


What will it take to put an end to the incompetence? No one believes the two Brians. After last week finally even their own cabinet and propaganda publications can't trust them.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 25, 2010, 03:00:34 PM
Quote from: Declan on November 25, 2010, 01:53:50 PM
QuoteI think RTÉ are reading it wrong in that report. I was listening and I took Amadeo's comments about bond holders sharing the pain to be a reiteration of Angela Merkel et al's statements of a couple of weeks ago about FUTURE bonds. They were at pains then to point out that this did not apply to currently held bonds and that the speculators must be baled out on all existing liabilities

That would be my understanding as well.

We cannot afford this and whoever says to me at the door that we will separate the public deficit from the bank debt and tell them to get lost has my vote
the comments etc about future bond holders sharing the pain are very strange and make no sense.  Bondholders are investors who get paid a premium for lending money, that interest rate is their reward for taking on risk.  If the loan cannot be repaid, they take pain.  That's how it's always worked in the past and how it presumably will work in the future.  The only reason there is a difference in the irish situation is because of our guarantee, that will presumably not be replicated by anyone, ever, in the future, so what's all the bluster about?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 25, 2010, 03:16:09 PM
Quote from: Hound on November 25, 2010, 10:54:07 AM
Ah c'mon muppet, you cannot call our income tax system extreme right-wing. I doubt there's a more left wing income tax system in the EU. In fact, as you said yourself, it was too left wing as far too many people pay no tax whatsoever - and that had to be done because dole was too high.

8% of workers earn over €75,000 and they contribute 60% of all income tax.

People earning €350 per week didnt have to pay one cent in tax. That was just totally unsustainable. Steady increases over the next 4 years will see them paying €11 a week in tax from 2014. I'd imagine the dole decreases will be similar.
Hound, you have to remember that whilst low income individuals did not pay direct tax, our indirect taxes were amongst the highest in Europe.  That in itself is inequitable, our overall tax burden was, iirc, a little lower than the European average, but not significantly lower.  Our direct tax burden was one of the lowest in Europe and indirect one of the highest.
You can say that indirect taxes are fairer in that they are discretionary and that those who pay them are those who should, but in fact since lower income people tend to spend all of their income, they are being hit on practically all expenditure.  Wealthier people were able to save their salaries if they wished, to invest in personal pensions, to invest in property etc, many of these options also awarded significant tax breaks. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 25, 2010, 04:39:35 PM
I went to a discussion today in Zurich about investment opportunities in Europe and the continental giving it spoke about the "high political risk attaching to Ireland". Another hole in the efficient markets hypothesis. FG are going to push through the budget but how many people know that ? 

I don't think people making investment decisions have the full picture. This is how disasters happen.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hardy on November 25, 2010, 04:46:18 PM
Just to give ourselves a break - now that we may be about to export financial pestilence to Europe and wider we need to console ourselves that we've given some good stuff to the world in our time as well.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7QZ0eZ196SM
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Capt Pat on November 25, 2010, 06:43:47 PM
So what happens now to the money the IMF gave us. It goes to the banks and they do what with it. They hand it back to the people they borrowed it from. Where will that leave us.

A brief synopsis and accurate figure please.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 25, 2010, 08:17:47 PM
I heard a good solution today from Emmet Oliver (Indo business guy), he reckons that if and when the pressure comes on Spain and it looks like Italy is next on the hit list, the only solution will be for the Eurozone to start issuing bonds, in other words for all the sovereign borrowing for eurozone countries to be consolidated and issued jointly.  This will have the advantage of being backed by Germans and French (if that's such an advantage) etc.  The drawback is that the overall risk profile and therefore interest rate will be raised, the germans won't be able to secure their 2.5% anymore, but it shouldn't go beyond 3.5%??  Anyway, it's obviously, politically a hard sell, but it seems like the most sensible, or only solution imo.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on November 25, 2010, 08:49:10 PM
Interesting idea BBXV...dont like it though. Germans would be our rulers.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 26, 2010, 02:30:25 AM
Quote from: bcarrier on November 25, 2010, 08:49:10 PM
Interesting idea BBXV...dont like it though. Germans would be our rulers.
As Sir Roger Casement and the 1916 boys would have said, that's bad??

I know, I know......
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Denn Forever on November 26, 2010, 01:49:55 PM
You gotta smile.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hm-q8F4t74g

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: johnneycool on November 26, 2010, 02:01:58 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vLniOkpl1QY (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vLniOkpl1QY)

even robots know the score.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 26, 2010, 02:09:41 PM
Quote from: Capt Pat on November 25, 2010, 06:43:47 PM
So what happens now to the money the IMF gave us. It goes to the banks and they do what with it. They hand it back to the people they borrowed it from. Where will that leave us.

A brief synopsis and accurate figure please.

The government didn't get the money yet . The stuff that goes to cover day to day spending will be drawn down as the spending occurs but it is not clear what will happen to the banks because we don't know much they need and anyway Ireland has very little capacity left on the credit card.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on November 26, 2010, 02:22:53 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 26, 2010, 02:09:41 PM
Quote from: Capt Pat on November 25, 2010, 06:43:47 PM
So what happens now to the money the IMF gave us. It goes to the banks and they do what with it. They hand it back to the people they borrowed it from. Where will that leave us.

A brief synopsis and accurate figure please.

The government didn't get the money yet . The stuff that goes to cover day to day spending will be drawn down as the spending occurs but it is not clear what will happen to the banks because we don't know much they need and anyway Ireland has very little capacity left on the credit card.

If the Banks apply to the Dep of Finance for another 5bn and it is drawen from the fund will we know about it?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Banana Man on November 26, 2010, 02:25:13 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 26, 2010, 02:09:41 PM
Quote from: Capt Pat on November 25, 2010, 06:43:47 PM
So what happens now to the money the IMF gave us. It goes to the banks and they do what with it. They hand it back to the people they borrowed it from. Where will that leave us.

A brief synopsis and accurate figure please.

The government didn't get the money yet . The stuff that goes to cover day to day spending will be drawn down as the spending occurs but it is not clear what will happen to the banks because we don't know much they need and anyway Ireland has very little capacity left on the credit card.

alright then, where did this ''we are fully funded until well into next year come from'' - was this absolute bollocks, if so has Lenihan retracted it or been pushed on it???
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: EC Unique on November 26, 2010, 02:27:10 PM
Don't pay. Walk away!

http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/7818305/ (http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/7818305/)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on November 26, 2010, 02:40:00 PM
Quote from: Banana Man on November 26, 2010, 02:25:13 PM

alright then, where did this ''we are fully funded until well into next year come from'' - was this absolute bollocks, if so has Lenihan retracted it or been pushed on it???

We've already borrowed enough to cover to then. We have been kicked out of the bond market and cann't borrow anymore from them therefore we have been given this fund to use as we need it.

The theory was that with this to back us up it would put confidence back in the market and we could borrow from there. That hasn't worked so we will need to draw down on the IMF/ECB loan next year.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: johnneycool on November 26, 2010, 03:43:08 PM
Quote from: EC Unique on November 26, 2010, 02:27:10 PM
Don't pay. Walk away!

http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/7818305/ (http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/7818305/)

Jez,
  the more you delve into this (and I'm not talking about these cartoons) the more it seems the best course of action and let the banks and bond holders go to f**k.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 26, 2010, 03:51:21 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on November 26, 2010, 02:22:53 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 26, 2010, 02:09:41 PM
Quote from: Capt Pat on November 25, 2010, 06:43:47 PM
So what happens now to the money the IMF gave us. It goes to the banks and they do what with it. They hand it back to the people they borrowed it from. Where will that leave us.

A brief synopsis and accurate figure please.

The government didn't get the money yet . The stuff that goes to cover day to day spending will be drawn down as the spending occurs but it is not clear what will happen to the banks because we don't know much they need and anyway Ireland has very little capacity left on the credit card.

If the Banks apply to the Dep of Finance for another 5bn and it is drawen from the fund will we know about it?

The banks are going to be restructured anyway. The bailout will probably take a different form since the banks are losing deposits and have all had their debt downgraded today by S&P. 
It is whole new ball game now. The State can't pony up anything else to the bonfire that is the banks.   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 26, 2010, 04:27:00 PM
I think that the bailout as outlined over the last few days will go ahead, there's talk that the IMF/ECB are going to try and make bank bondholders take a bit of a hit, but I don't know if that can really be done (just yet).
It seems that the plan is to stabilise the overall european situation and try and reassure everyone that we're all going to be fine and that ireland will play by the rules and do her duty.  In a year's time, when we've a new govt etc and hopefully the financial world will have settled down a lot, then they'll revisit us and admit that Ireland cannot meet her obligations and the bank portion of our bailout will be restructured, or at least that's the plan.  At the minute they're just playing for time, is it a bluff like Lenno tried the night of the guarantee?  I hope it works out better this time.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 26, 2010, 05:16:25 PM
There would be no problem with the national debt if it wasn't for the banks. If they keep on losing deposits they won't be able to keep going for a year. It is all looking very uncertain.

Teh only thing we can say for sure is that one of the lads will start a Mayo thread in January and that by February it will be up to 100 pages and confidence will be sky high only for a complete climbdown by June.   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 26, 2010, 06:54:54 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 26, 2010, 05:16:25 PM
There would be no problem with the national debt if it wasn't for the banks. If they keep on losing deposits they won't be able to keep going for a year. It is all looking very uncertain.

Teh only thing we can say for sure is that one of the lads will start a Mayo thread in January and that by February it will be up to 100 pages and confidence will be sky high only for a complete climbdown by June.   
I doubt there'll be anybody left in Mayo come January, they're great for the emigrating them boys.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on November 26, 2010, 07:03:11 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on November 26, 2010, 06:54:54 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 26, 2010, 05:16:25 PM
There would be no problem with the national debt if it wasn't for the banks. If they keep on losing deposits they won't be able to keep going for a year. It is all looking very uncertain.

Teh only thing we can say for sure is that one of the lads will start a Mayo thread in January and that by February it will be up to 100 pages and confidence will be sky high only for a complete climbdown by June.   
I doubt there'll be anybody left in Mayo come January, they're great for the emigrating them boys.

Always one of the counties to lose most of its population. Think I read somewhere that Mayo's population was around 400,000 in 1845, it was about 124,000 at the height of the boom circa 2006.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hardy on November 26, 2010, 09:10:41 PM
RTÉ news are reporting that the bailout interest rate is to be 6.7%.

That's it. Forget it. That's rape. 8.75 billion per annum in interest. THE IMF/EU/EFSF must be told to sling their hook, we're revoking all guarantees, the bondholders can take their medicine and we're borrowing just enough for the budget deficit. If they want us to co-operate in saving the Euro they play ball or f**k off.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hardy on November 26, 2010, 09:13:18 PM
One possibility is that this is FF (or somebody) spinning so that a negotiated rate lower than this can be presented as a victory.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 26, 2010, 10:04:03 PM
Quote from: Hardy on November 26, 2010, 09:10:41 PM
RTÉ news are reporting that the bailout interest rate is to be 6.7%.

Rte rounded it up, it is really 6.66.

(http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQuSmfCrKhBQGaWrPqxRK2LlR-mRP_YUe7KH-zBS-DKvVi3PDSm)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on November 26, 2010, 10:41:38 PM
Welcome to my world hardy.

My other half has told me there is no point in shouting at the television.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 26, 2010, 10:44:35 PM
Quote from: Hardy on November 26, 2010, 09:10:41 PM
RTÉ news are reporting that the bailout interest rate is to be 6.7%.

That's it. Forget it. That's rape. 8.75 billion per annum in interest. THE IMF/EU/EFSF must be told to sling their hook, we're revoking all guarantees, the bondholders can take their medicine and we're borrowing just enough for the budget deficit. If they want us to co-operate in saving the Euro they play ball or f**k off.
agree with all of that, except that according to the lads on Vincent Brown last week, that 8.75Bn interest will actually be about 14Bn when all our funds are drawn down.  As I said earlier, I honestly think they know that this is actually unaffordable, no ifs, no buts, this nation cannot ever, ever pay that money back.  However they think that for the time being if play ball and pretend that we're going to pay it, we can revisit the bondholders next year, assuming that everything has settled down.

I still think that the suggestion for a eurozone bond is the only solution in the long run, let's see just how serious the EU is about helping its neighbour, I know there'd be some crying here if we were told our national borrowing rate was going to rise because we've committed to helping out portugal for example.  I'd expect the same in Germany, France....
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Peter Solan the Great on November 26, 2010, 10:45:09 PM
This is Fianna FAIL spin. What scum they are.  They then will announce a lower interest rate and say what a great little victory it was and what great negotiators they are.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on November 26, 2010, 10:51:46 PM
Probably correct Peter. More noise/ smoke/mirrors to push through bank bailout- which should not happen.

I am slightly encouraged by fact that more and more people are awake to what is happening.

Update: lower rate now quoted by times . Sensible post on p.ie

QuoteMy guess is that the IMF tranche (25%) will cost 3.3%, say, 4.0% for the contribution (10%) from the Brits/Swedes and 6.7% from our so-called friends in Europe (65%). This would produce a blended rate of around 5.7%. Even this is too high and may lead to demands for a bigger haircut for the bondholders than is achievable. If so, they could find that the credit market shuts down on Monday. The implications of this for day-to-day bank funding would be dreadful.
The irony of all this is that Lenihan may have got away with burning the bondholders after the Lehman collapse whereas trying to enforce a haircut now will have a terrible effect. Besides, having blown €55bn of our money in repaying bondholders over the past 2 years, Lenihan is far too late in changing tack. While Lenihan may get his come uppance in the forthcoming election, the same is not true of his permanent advisers throughout all this, the Dept. of Finance. The incoming government needs to clear this lot out. They have been out of their depth for years and their incompetance has cost the State a fortune.
Reply With Quote
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 27, 2010, 08:21:25 PM
Well I went to the march today and am more hopeful than I was. Hopefully people are waking up to what's happening to us. I see RTE Pravda had it at 25000 on the one o'clock news and then revised it to 50K. I thought there was more like 100K there myself with the numbers stretching all the way from Christchurch to O' Connell Street
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on November 27, 2010, 09:41:49 PM
Too late Declan.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/28/business/global/28euro.html?src=busln

Deal done by sound of it. Budget irrelevant ..its all about switching ECB overnights on Irish Banks at 1% to sovereign at 6ish % . Even is rate was 1% it would be wrong. Blended rate is more than Greece's 5.2% . WALOFS.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 27, 2010, 09:59:14 PM
so i hear bc - Mr Chopra and his mates spotted leaving the airport as well
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on November 28, 2010, 03:59:27 PM
There is some talk now on the pin now of NPRF having guaranteed some derivatives positions in the banks. Another 25bn down the pan ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 28, 2010, 04:01:27 PM
http://www.politics.ie/economy/144318-has-national-pension-reserve-fund-been-spent-banks-already.html (http://www.politics.ie/economy/144318-has-national-pension-reserve-fund-been-spent-banks-already.html)

Not sure I understand this but judging by the reaction of (anonymous I now) posters there this could be the final collapse of the economy. If our banks gambled and lost without telling us we should round them all up immediately and put them in stocks. If I have to live on the street at least I will be able to kick these bastards everyday.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on November 28, 2010, 04:04:10 PM
If true it seems that the country has been run like anglo.

If you are in a hole stop digging.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 28, 2010, 04:30:11 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/audio_popout.html?2862318,2862318,flash,257,{%22autoPlay%22:true,%22image%22:%22000372fd%22,%22audio%22:true,%22feedType%22:%22news-audio-long%22,%22title%22:%22This%20Week%22,%22descr%22:%22This%20Week%22} (http://www.rte.ie/news/audio_popout.html?2862318,2862318,flash,257,%7B%22autoPlay%22:true,%22image%22:%22000372fd%22,%22audio%22:true,%22feedType%22:%22news-audio-long%22,%22title%22:%22This%20Week%22,%22descr%22:%22This%20Week%22%7D)

RTE player above, Rabbitte starts discussing this at about 15 mins in. He describes it as information he has 'received'. If it is true the pension reserve is gone, without us knowing it or even getting any use out of it. That would be a disaster in itself but you have to ask what else has been promised to the banks' creditors/bondholders?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on November 28, 2010, 07:52:24 PM
(http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcR0OYzdp_hyluCJ7BnVZMUE1fp2gJNKH3f9XX7JAGegtGmYCIlfBg)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Square Ball on November 28, 2010, 07:57:57 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 28, 2010, 04:30:11 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/audio_popout.html?2862318,2862318,flash,257,{%22autoPlay%22:true,%22image%22:%22000372fd%22,%22audio%22:true,%22feedType%22:%22news-audio-long%22,%22title%22:%22This%20Week%22,%22descr%22:%22This%20Week%22} (http://www.rte.ie/news/audio_popout.html?2862318,2862318,flash,257,%7B%22autoPlay%22:true,%22image%22:%22000372fd%22,%22audio%22:true,%22feedType%22:%22news-audio-long%22,%22title%22:%22This%20Week%22,%22descr%22:%22This%20Week%22%7D)

RTE player above, Rabbitte starts discussing this at about 15 mins in. He describes it as information he has 'received'. If it is true the pension reserve is gone, without us knowing it or even getting any use out of it. That would be a disaster in itself but you have to ask what else has been promised to the banks' creditors/bondholders?

The entire country by the sounds of it, what else has been going on that will come out in the washing?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 28, 2010, 08:04:49 PM
Well it seems Rabbitte might have been at least half right.

The spin: €85 @ 5.8% will cost €4.93 Billion in interest a year.

More likely: As €17 Billion is our own the €4.93 Billion interest is generated on the (€85 B - €17 B =) €67 Billion bailout. This gives a rate of 7.36%

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: lawnseed on November 28, 2010, 08:54:12 PM
so whats the situation muppet these scum have already raided the pensions money? wtf! WTF! WHY AREN'T THESE GUYS IN JAIL. >:( >:( the pensions money is the money that the shinners intend to use on projects to stimulate the economy should the good people of ireland grant them a mandate.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 28, 2010, 09:01:18 PM
Quote from: lawnseed on November 28, 2010, 08:54:12 PM
so whats the situation muppet these scum have already raided the pensions money? wtf! WTF! WHY AREN'T THESE GUYS IN JAIL. >:( >:( the pensions money is the money that the shinners intend to use on projects to stimulate the economy should the good people of ireland grant them a mandate.

There were rumours it was gone weeks ago, but it definitely is gone now. We are supposed to believe it is being lent to us at 5.8% as part of our own Bailout. This is precisely the sort of opaque financial transaction that got us into the mess in the first place.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: lawnseed on November 28, 2010, 09:11:07 PM
your right, just watching the news... so much for stimulating the economy. heres lenahen... great news we're better than greece ::) plain to see who called the shots the biffo bunch hadn't a word to say
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on November 28, 2010, 09:15:43 PM
A slow liquidation of the state has begun.

Cowen and Co's acceptance that europe would not accept a haircut on senior bonds is shocking.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 28, 2010, 09:16:14 PM
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/26/opinion/26krugman.html?_r=1&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/26/opinion/26krugman.html?_r=1&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss)

Eating the Irish
By PAUL KRUGMAN
Published: November 25, 2010

What we need now is another Jonathan Swift.


Most people know Swift as the author of "Gulliver's Travels." But recent events have me thinking of his 1729 essay "A Modest Proposal," in which he observed the dire poverty of the Irish, and offered a solution: sell the children as food. "I grant this food will be somewhat dear," he admitted, but this would make it "very proper for landlords, who, as they have already devoured most of the parents, seem to have the best title to the children."

O.K., these days it's not the landlords, it's the bankers — and they're just impoverishing the populace, not eating it. But only a satirist — and one with a very savage pen — could do justice to what's happening to Ireland now.

The Irish story began with a genuine economic miracle. But eventually this gave way to a speculative frenzy driven by runaway banks and real estate developers, all in a cozy relationship with leading politicians. The frenzy was financed with huge borrowing on the part of Irish banks, largely from banks in other European nations.

Then the bubble burst, and those banks faced huge losses. You might have expected those who lent money to the banks to share in the losses. After all, they were consenting adults, and if they failed to understand the risks they were taking that was nobody's fault but their own. But, no, the Irish government stepped in to guarantee the banks' debt, turning private losses into public obligations.

Before the bank bust, Ireland had little public debt. But with taxpayers suddenly on the hook for gigantic bank losses, even as revenues plunged, the nation's creditworthiness was put in doubt. So Ireland tried to reassure the markets with a harsh program of spending cuts.

Step back for a minute and think about that. These debts were incurred, not to pay for public programs, but by private wheeler-dealers seeking nothing but their own profit. Yet ordinary Irish citizens are now bearing the burden of those debts.

Or to be more accurate, they're bearing a burden much larger than the debt — because those spending cuts have caused a severe recession so that in addition to taking on the banks' debts, the Irish are suffering from plunging incomes and high unemployment.

But there is no alternative, say the serious people: all of this is necessary to restore confidence.

Strange to say, however, confidence is not improving. On the contrary: investors have noticed that all those austerity measures are depressing the Irish economy — and are fleeing Irish debt because of that economic weakness.

Now what? Last weekend Ireland and its neighbors put together what has been widely described as a "bailout." But what really happened was that the Irish government promised to impose even more pain, in return for a credit line — a credit line that would presumably give Ireland more time to, um, restore confidence. Markets, understandably, were not impressed: interest rates on Irish bonds have risen even further.

Does it really have to be this way?

In early 2009, a joke was making the rounds: "What's the difference between Iceland and Ireland? Answer: One letter and about six months." This was supposed to be gallows humor. No matter how bad the Irish situation, it couldn't be compared with the utter disaster that was Iceland.

But at this point Iceland seems, if anything, to be doing better than its near-namesake. Its economic slump was no deeper than Ireland's, its job losses were less severe and it seems better positioned for recovery. In fact, investors now appear to consider Iceland's debt safer than Ireland's. How is that possible?

Part of the answer is that Iceland let foreign lenders to its runaway banks pay the price of their poor judgment, rather than putting its own taxpayers on the line to guarantee bad private debts. As the International Monetary Fund notes — approvingly! — "private sector bankruptcies have led to a marked decline in external debt." Meanwhile, Iceland helped avoid a financial panic in part by imposing temporary capital controls — that is, by limiting the ability of residents to pull funds out of the country.

And Iceland has also benefited from the fact that, unlike Ireland, it still has its own currency; devaluation of the krona, which has made Iceland's exports more competitive, has been an important factor in limiting the depth of Iceland's slump.

None of these heterodox options are available to Ireland, say the wise heads. Ireland, they say, must continue to inflict pain on its citizens — because to do anything else would fatally undermine confidence.

But Ireland is now in its third year of austerity, and confidence just keeps draining away. And you have to wonder what it will take for serious people to realize that punishing the populace for the bankers' sins is worse than a crime; it's a mistake.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on November 28, 2010, 09:20:35 PM
excellent article muppet.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 28, 2010, 09:21:30 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on November 28, 2010, 09:20:35 PM
excellent article muppet.

Sad that we have to look to foreign journalists to tell it as it is.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: BennyHarp on November 28, 2010, 09:22:39 PM
My apologises if this has been posted before, I thought it was interesting.

How a bailout package works

It is a slow day in a damp little Irish town. The rain is beating down and the streets are deserted. Times are tough, everybody is in debt and everybody lives on credit.
On this particular day a rich German tourist is driving through the town, stops at the local hotel and lays a €100 note on the desk, telling the hotel owner he wants to inspect the rooms upstairs in order to pick one to spend the night. The owner gives him some keys and, as soon as the visitor has walked upstairs, the hotelier grabs the €100 note and runs next door to pay his debt to the butcher.
The butcher takes the €100 note and runs down the street to repay his debt to the pig farmer.
The pig farmer takes the €100 note and heads off to pay his bill at the supplier of feed and fuel.
The guy at the Farmers' Co-op takes the €100 note and runs to pay his drinks bill at the pub.
The publican slips the money along to the local prostitute drinking at the bar, who has also been facing hard times and has had to offer him "services" on credit.
The hooker then rushes to the hotel and pays off her room bill to the hotel owner with the same €100 note.
The hotel proprietor then places the note back on the counter so the rich traveller will not suspect anything.
At that moment the traveller comes down the stairs, picks up the note, states that the rooms are not satisfactory, pockets the money and leaves town.
No one produced anything. No one earned anything. However, the whole town is now out of debt and looking to the future with a lot more optimism.
And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how a bailout package works. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 28, 2010, 09:25:49 PM
Indeed it is- RTE are Pravda/Izvestia light. This is an absolute disgrace but we still have the opportunity to change things - Vote these lliars, cheats and bastards out of office and tell the new govt to tell the ECB/IMF to go f**k themselves
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: armaghniac on November 28, 2010, 09:27:51 PM
QuoteOn this particular day a rich German tourist is driving through the town, stops at the local hotel and lays a €100 note

The above has a ring of truth. All the ECB has to do is print vouchers for tourist services and give them to Germans who can head off to Ireland, Portugal, Greece and Spain on holidays, thereby filling empty hotels and removing the need for Germany to lend money.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: lawnseed on November 28, 2010, 09:34:51 PM
jez benny thats an old one ;). actually i heard one of the fine gael senators suggest that the state buy 1 million plane fares from ryanair who he said would sell the seats at 7 euros each which we could give to tourists for free. i was surprised that fine gael senators were capable of such ideas very innovative for a change
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on November 28, 2010, 09:36:30 PM
How a bailout package works

It is a slow day in a damp little Irish town. The rain is beating down and the streets are deserted. Times are tough, everybody is in debt and everybody lives on credit.
On this particular day a rich German tourist is driving through the town, stops at the local hotel and lays a €100 note on the desk, telling the hotel owner he wants to inspect the rooms upstairs in order to pick one to spend the night. The owner gives him some keys and, as soon as the visitor has walked upstairs, the hotelier grabs the €100 note and runs next door to pay his debt to the butcher.
The butcher takes the €100 note and runs down the street to repay his debt to the pig farmer.
The pig farmer takes the €100 note and heads off to pay his bill at the supplier of feed and fuel.
The guy at the Farmers' Co-op takes the €100 note and runs to pay his drinks bill at the pub.
The publican slips the money along to the local prostitute drinking at the bar, who has also been facing hard times and has had to offer him "services" on credit.
The hooker then rushes to the hotel and pays off her room bill to the hotel owner with the same €100 note.
The hotel proprietor then places the note back on the counter so the rich traveller will not suspect anything.
At that moment the traveller comes down the stairs, picks up the note, states that the rooms are not satisfactory, pockets the money and leaves town.
No one produced anything. No one earned anything. However, the whole town is now out of debt and looking to the future with a lot more optimism.
And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how a bailout package works.


Wrong in ireland. The german tourist has also asked persuaded the owner that if he books the room for 100 euro that the owner will give an immediate unrefundable 50 euro cashback to the tourist's german cousin in the bank.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 28, 2010, 09:42:03 PM
Bailing out bondholders in't capitalism.

Fianna Fáil are going to DIE as a party. They have shorted themselves. What an appalling situation they leave the country in.

Why not divvy the NPRF up between 4.3 million people and get everyone spending?  I mean if they don't want the money.

The protection of bondholders is shameless. They are going to lose their money anyway later on but shafting the taxpayer in this way goes against all the values of the Irish nation, apart from the Sunday Independent. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: lawnseed on November 28, 2010, 09:56:16 PM
give rte a few weeks to spin this 'deal' to the 'stupid' irish public and they'll be patting cowen on the back. if the french government tried this their heads would be kick off the top of the effiel tower to the sound of tumultous applause of the french people. the irish will simply bendover..
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on November 28, 2010, 11:17:27 PM
The Irish Government just accepted a deal to sell Ireland to bailout Europe.

This is bigger than the 1916 rising.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: lawnseed on November 28, 2010, 11:35:34 PM
vasaline sales are up... :o :o
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: highorlow on November 28, 2010, 11:50:05 PM
QuoteThe Irish Government just accepted a deal to sell Ireland to bailout Europe.

This is bigger than the 1916 rising.

Ah Jasus calm down.

Well we have learned one good lesson from this and that is not to believe for one minute any word that comes out of any economist ever again.

Constantibe, Lucey (who has gone into hiding since his double counting the other week, imagine an economist that can't even count correctly?), McWilliams the whole god dam lot of them all of whom just love the sound of their own voices have exaggerated the whole thing.

The banks will be back making money in 6 months time and this contingency fund will start to get paid back.

Some awful gibberish OTT speculative crapology been spouted in the papers and elsewhere over the last few weeks, including that NY Times article. Horseshit of the highest order.

Who borrowed from the banks who borrowed from the other banks only you me and everyone else who got in on the binge so too right we have to pay it back.

How the f**k anyone can say defaulting is good is a madman, i.e. if you gave a loan to Joe Bloggs of say 30 euro and he didn't pay you back and a few weeks later came running looking for another 30 I'm dam sure you would tell him where to get off.

People need to wise up and in the words of a famous Cork man ' get over it' and cut the self deluded self pity that the like of Fintan o'Toole and co are coming out with and we need to dust down and get the country back rolling again which we can do. It's all beginning to be a bit tiresome at this stage.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on November 28, 2010, 11:50:41 PM
Actually when I think about it i'm wrong. We didn't sell Ireland. We are paying them 5.83% on an 85bn loan to take Ireland. Now that's a bad deal.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: highorlow on November 28, 2010, 11:54:40 PM
QuoteActually when I think about it i'm wrong. We didn't sell Ireland. We are paying them 5.83% on an 85bn loan to take Ireland. Now that's a bad deal.

Oh for crying out loud. I'm putting on a hot whiskey!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on November 29, 2010, 07:34:54 AM
Quote from: highorlow on November 28, 2010, 11:50:05 PM

Well we have learned one good lesson from this and that is not to believe for one minute any word that comes out of any economist ever again.

Wrong: This man has been predicting the future since 2006.

http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=19&t=33265&hilit=+morgan+kelly+week



QuoteThe banks will be back making money in 6 months time and this contingency fund will start to get paid back.

You are on your own there. Thats one hell of a big assumption to make given all we know about the state of the economy, their mortgage books and the withdrawals of deposits.

QuoteSome awful gibberish OTT speculative crapology been spouted in the papers and elsewhere over the last few weeks, including that NY Times article. Horseshit of the highest order.

Because it doesnt suit you ? What bit is horseshit.

QuoteWho borrowed from the banks who borrowed from the other banks only you me and everyone else who got in on the binge so too right we have to pay it back.

How the f**k anyone can say defaulting is good is a madman, i.e. if you gave a loan to Joe Bloggs of say 30 euro and he didn't pay you back and a few weeks later came running looking for another 30 I'm dam sure you would tell him where to get off.

The bank debts arent the countries debts. The market is punishing Ireland for taking them on.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: BennyHarp on November 29, 2010, 08:06:09 AM
Quote from: lawnseed on November 28, 2010, 09:34:51 PM
jez benny thats an old one ;). actually i heard one of the fine gael senators suggest that the state buy 1 million plane fares from ryanair who he said would sell the seats at 7 euros each which we could give to tourists for free. i was surprised that fine gael senators were capable of such ideas very innovative for a change

I know, thats why i apologised if it had been posted before as i couldnt be bothered reading through all the pages in this thread.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on November 29, 2010, 08:39:50 AM
Quote from: highorlow on November 28, 2010, 11:50:05 PM

Ah Jasus calm down.

Well we have learned one good lesson from this and that is not to believe for one minute any word that comes out of any economist ever again.

Constantibe, Lucey (who has gone into hiding since his double counting the other week, imagine an economist that can't even count correctly?), McWilliams the whole god dam lot of them all of whom just love the sound of their own voices have exaggerated the whole thing.

The banks will be back making money in 6 months time and this contingency fund will start to get paid back.

Some awful gibberish OTT speculative crapology been spouted in the papers and elsewhere over the last few weeks, including that NY Times article. Horseshit of the highest order.

Who borrowed from the banks who borrowed from the other banks only you me and everyone else who got in on the binge so too right we have to pay it back.

How the f**k anyone can say defaulting is good is a madman, i.e. if you gave a loan to Joe Bloggs of say 30 euro and he didn't pay you back and a few weeks later came running looking for another 30 I'm dam sure you would tell him where to get off.

People need to wise up and in the words of a famous Cork man ' get over it' and cut the self deluded self pity that the like of Fintan o'Toole and co are coming out with and we need to dust down and get the country back rolling again which we can do. It's all beginning to be a bit tiresome at this stage.

That you Brian?

If the lesson you learnt is -  not to believe for one minute any word that comes out of any economist ever again - then I worry about you.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 29, 2010, 09:57:18 AM
Gene Kerrigan: A bailout? This is more like a stitch-up
There is a very good reason our Taoiseach was slow to accept the EU/IMF deal, writes Gene Kerrigan


Sunday November 28 2010
Let's say a few words in defence of Brian Cowen. Just a few -- despite the bloody awful time we're going through we haven't entirely lost our minds. We're well aware that Ahern, McCreevy, Harney, Cowen and their cronies took a thriving economy for a joyride and crashed it. And for over two years Cowen and Lenihan have stubbornly continued the right-wing policies that caused the economic apocalypse.

However, Cowen appears to have been getting a bad rap on this "IMF bailout". The story is much more complex. For a start -- we're not being bailed out, we're being stitched up. And it's not so much the IMF that's doing it, it's our European "partners".

Over that weird week in mid-November, Cowen denied the bailout rumours (though EU sources confirmed that bailout talks were under way). The Government deliberately misled the citizens. For a few days, the media seemed as puzzled as it was aghast. At this time of crisis our philanthropic European partners were offering us tens of billions, and Cowen didn't want to accept their generous offer. Was he mad? Bringing in the IMF and the EU (through the European Financial Stability Facility) was humiliating, infuriating -- but it was a way out of an impossible crisis.

The supposition was that Cowen didn't want the shame of being the Taoiseach who brought in the bailiffs. Much more likely, he and Brian Lenihan understood the stitch-up being prepared. They resisted the "bailout" for very good reasons. Typically, they misled us about what was going on, instead of bringing public scrutiny to bear on the events.

Who is being bailed out?

Yes, idiot Irish bankers loaned billions to idiot Irish developers, with the blessing of idiot Irish politicians. The resulting credit bubble eventually and inevitably burst -- and the developers (and many mortgage holders) can't pay back the loans, so the banks are insolvent.

And the collapse of the property market deprived the Exchequer of revenue it had come to depend on, causing a huge government deficit. But that's just part of the picture.

That money with which the banks gambled came from somewhere. In recent years, Europe was awash with cash, money saved by prudent citizens of stable economies. Idiot German and French and UK bankers needed someone to borrow that money and pay interest on it. They were delighted to pump countless billions into the vaults of the idiot Irish bankers. With the blessing of idiot EU politicians, bureaucrats and regulators.

They did so with the same recklessness with which the idiot Irish bankers poured the billions into the pockets of the entrepreneurial gobshites who built the luxury hotels and the trophy buildings and the ghost estates that now lie idle.

It's now clear that Cowen and Lenihan's suicidal blanket bank guarantee wasn't just a product of their idiocy. They were under pressure from their EU mates to ensure that no bank failed.

The idiot German and French and UK bankers wanted their money back. The idiot Irish bankers couldn't pay. So, Cowen and Lenihan agreed that the gambling debts of the private banks would be paid by the citizens. In the words of Commissioner Olli Rehn (who approved of this shabby course): "Sovereign debt has not been at the origin of the crisis. Rather, private debt has become public debt."

Lenihan excuses loading the debt onto us by claiming, "We all partied". It was as if the crisis arose from the moral failure of a people -- rather than a failed economic model, casino capitalism.

Yes, we partied -- by buying homes at prices set by corrupt banks and rapacious developers. By taking minimum wage jobs and clothing our kids. By saving for our children's education. There was lunacy, but the vast majority of us worked and saved and spent in line with our means -- we didn't gamble.

For two years, Cowen and Lenihan have put increasing loads of debt on our backs, slashing services and benefits we spent a lifetime building up through our taxes. And now -- the "bailout". From (as the RTE cheerleaders like to put it) our EU "partners", who are "coming to our rescue".

So, our EU "partners" are giving Cowen access to €85bn, at usurious interest rates. Part of that money will be given to Irish banks, to bail out the German, French and UK banks -- and those billions will be added to the citizens' debt. By 2014, we may be paying over €8bn a year in interest.

This isn't a bailout or a rescue, this is a hold-up.

The economic collapse is an EU problem. The private banks are in trouble. The euro is in trouble. Our membership of the euro makes our sovereign deficit problems worse (and I don't see that Cowen and Lenihan had a realistic choice in this). We can't devalue the currency and the Government's room for manoeuvre is limited.

We are not being bailed out. This is an EU-wide piece of financial engineering. It is being arranged in order to get the German, French and UK banks out of the hole they dug for themselves, and to save the euro. Charging any interest above a nominal rate is profiteering.

The general election -- it doesn't matter. One group of fearful, deferential politicians will be replaced by another. The four-year "plan"? Dead within days of being published. All that remains of it is the slashing and burning that will kill the old, betray the young and penalise low and middle earners. Taking another €15bn out of the economy will undercut any chance of growth. On top of that, paying between €2.5bn and €8.4bn a year in usurious interest on the fake bailout would beggar us.

Will the citizens tell the bankers and their politician friends to bugger off? I'd like to think so, but the signs are that currently the 'fighting Irish' have all the

pluckiness of a bald, bound and stuffed turkey being slid into an oven at 180 degrees, gas-mark 4.

It's time, says Fine Gael's Leo Varadker, to "play hardball" with our European "partners". What's hardball, Leo? "Burn the bondholders," says Leo. No, son, that's not hardball. That's what should have happened as a matter of course. The bondholders gambled, they lost.

Hardball -- well, our "partners" have pretty much closed off all the safe options. We're left with -- what? Maybe calling Merkel and Sarkozy and Cameron into a room and telling them that for the foreseeable future every EU treaty adjustment will go to an Irish referendum, and it will be lost.

The European project has at its heart some laudable aims, albeit corrupted by a lack of democracy and a surfeit of economic extremism. But perhaps the extremism wins, and perhaps the EU project is over.

Or -- if we want to go ballistic altogether -- we could always pick an island (Inishvickillane would be my choice), put it on eBay and invite the Chinese, the Iranians and the North Koreans to bid. Let's see how much Merkel and Obama between them would come up with to head off that prospect. Bids start at €85bn.

And that, Leo, would be hardball.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hereiam on November 29, 2010, 10:07:45 AM
The above piece makes alot of sense. On another note does it bother people in the south to see the brits on the tv going on about how they don't want Ireland to fail. This would sickin the hole of any irish man. They claim to be giving Ireland 3 bilion at 5.8% but they borrowed this money at 2% themselves on the bond market. So they make money on it no matter put in the eyes of the world they are the good neighbours. They really are a sneaky bunch.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on November 29, 2010, 10:09:09 AM
I posted this on the pin ...interest rate from EU is over 7% imo.

A couple of bits from peston on bbc blog

Quote:
The interest rate being charged by the EU will be around 6%, whereas the IMF will charge just over 3% for the first three years and 4% for the subsequent three years.


Quote:
The total British contribution to the rescue of Ireland can be seen as €7.8bn (£6.6bn) - consisting of a direct loan of €3.8bn, plus exposure equivalent to 4.5% of the IMF's €22.5bn loan (or €1bn) and 13.5% exposure to the European Financial Stability Mechanism's €22.5bn contribution (€3bn).


and earlier

Quote:
As I understand it, the German finance minister, Wolfgang Schauble, is arguing that Ireland should pay a higher interest rate of around 7%.


I am trying to reverse engineer the 5.83% blended interest (if drawn now) figure :

If we leave out the 17.5bn coming from our own reserves bailout fund is 67.5 Bn...let us assume UK/Swedish money is at same rate as EU funds so

22.5BN (1/3 of total ) from IMF @ 3% (per Peston) plus 45BN from EU/BR/SW @ 7.25% = 5.83% blended rate.

It looks like Wolfgang got what he wanted.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Donkeywalloper on November 29, 2010, 10:19:22 AM
The deal is done, and the europeans seemed to have got what they wanted (a more stable euro)

"A €25bn contingency fund is also available if they require more money in the future.

Bank of Ireland has said that it will seek to raise almost €2.2bn of capital by February in a move that would bring the bank close to nationalisation.

Meanwhile, global markets are beginning to feed through their reaction to Ireland's loan facility.

The Irish banking shares are stronger this morning.

Shares in AIB are up over 7%, while Bank of Ireland has gained over 19% and Irish Life and Permament soared almost 35%.

Overall the Dublin market is up over 1.5%, while other European markets are also stronger. "


The circus quickly moves on, but ultimatley they have slowed the domino effect on Portugal and more importantly spain being brought into the equation.

Feck you Ireland policy has prevailed and the family silver has been hocked at a level whereby it will never be retrived. We ( irsh government) agreed it , the citizens have to pay for it and all the while not one off the greedy bastards that caused this has appeared before the courts, those incompetent are still in the same industries recieving huge rewards for their risk taking.

The whole thing stinks


Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on November 29, 2010, 10:21:18 AM
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2010/1129/1224284371238.html
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: highorlow on November 29, 2010, 10:21:35 AM
Good man Gene. You are ranting and adding nothing to the recovery process.

Yet another self interest to sell papers. Gene forgot to mention the 44% idiot population that voted FF, plus the fact that the rest of Europe had the low interest rates during the boom but chose not to get into a gorge fest.

This whole thing sounds like a big bloody moan by the Irish people and we are all beginning to sound like spoilt kids where everyone else is wrong except ourseleves. People need to get real and have a good look at themselves. It would remind you of a kid let into a ice cream parlour and everything is free and he pigs out and then blames the shop keeper for leaving the door open.

[quoteBecause it doesnt suit you ? What bit is horseshit.

][/quote]
The whole article. Anything to do with or anyone that says 'burn the bondholders' does not know what they are talking about.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on November 29, 2010, 10:27:06 AM
Do you see no difference between bank and sovereign bondholders high or low ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: highorlow on November 29, 2010, 10:36:17 AM
QuoteDo you see no difference between bank and sovereign bondholders high or low ?

If any of our banks default on the senior bondholders then where in gods name will any future good bank in this country get there hands on cash?

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on November 29, 2010, 10:43:30 AM
New banks will fill the gap. It has happened in Iceland already. If you accept that subordinate bondholders should take a haircut it is only a small step.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 29, 2010, 10:45:01 AM
QuoteIf any of our banks default on the senior bondholders then where in gods name will any future good bank in this country get there hands on cash?

That's not answering the question- But bondholders aren't stupid- Any new future bank as you put it would be a separate entity to the failures we currently have and could negotiate on their own terms
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: highorlow on November 29, 2010, 11:05:25 AM
QuoteThat's not answering the question- But bondholders aren't stupid- Any new future bank as you put it would be a separate entity to the failures we currently have and could negotiate on their own terms

When we joined the EURO all debt became sovereign to a certain degree when discussed in public. Your point on the bondholders is exactly my point, bondholders aren't stupid; when our banks become a viable entity in the marketplace again which may not be as far away as people in the meeja are suggesting, they are certainly a more viable and attractive proposition today then they were last Friday, (everytime i switched on the tv or radio in the last fortnight the debt of the banks grew by another 10billion which has since proven to be misleading by so called economists) then some vultures will come in and take them over and let them do a deal with the bondholders in private. In the meantime what has been done is really the only choice we had. The sovereign state couldn't come out and say last night 'by the way lads we are letting AIB go down the tubes tomorrow, see ye later,' what would you think would be going on today in the country? The sovereign state will also still have the NAMA assets which also appear to have been forgotton about by every so called analyst.

p.s. Iceland is not in the EURO. They devalued their Krona. If you want to go back to the punt then your on you own? As much as peoples homes have devalued we don't want houses valued at 150k Eur and punts of an exchange rate of 10 punts to 1 Eur so you will be paying off 150k Eur mortgage for a house worth 15,000 Eur!!

p.p.s If Morgan Kelly can predict some positive outlook then one could take him seriously.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 29, 2010, 11:07:09 AM
Quote from: highorlow on November 29, 2010, 10:36:17 AM
QuoteDo you see no difference between bank and sovereign bondholders high or low ?

If any of our banks default on the senior bondholders then where in gods name will any future good bank in this country get there hands on cash?
Bondholders will initially demand a higher rate of interest than they normally do for new start-up banks, say about 8% probably.  That's what they're supposed to do, they measure the risk and demand an interest rate adequately reflecting that risk.  Obviously, something that they didn't do too well in the past.
In saying that, it would be no bad thing for new banks to stay well away from raising capital externally to loan internally anyway for a while, we don't want a repeat of this in another decade
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 29, 2010, 11:10:10 AM
Quote from: highorlow on November 29, 2010, 11:05:25 AM
QuoteThat's not answering the question- But bondholders aren't stupid- Any new future bank as you put it would be a separate entity to the failures we currently have and could negotiate on their own terms

When we joined the EURO all debt became sovereign
Quote

I don't understand how that could be the case.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: highorlow on November 29, 2010, 11:11:39 AM
I modified it there.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on November 29, 2010, 11:50:06 AM
Quotep.s. Iceland is not in the EURO. They devalued their Krona. If you want to go back to the punt then your on you own? As much as peoples homes have devalued we don't want houses valued at 150k Eur and punts of an exchange rate of 10 punts to 1 Eur so you will be paying off 150k Eur mortgage for a house worth 15,000 Eur!!

I think you are the alarmist now HoL . If we left the Euro domestic debt and savings would also be redesignated in the new currency. (It might actually solve the property overhang/ valuation issue through inflation.) There would be major issues but at some stage a devaluation may have to come into play.  A break up of the Euro is a live issue. Goldman Sachs have today said they expect the Euro to survive but to be messy.

Just because you dont like what Morgan Kelly and others have been saying doesnt make it less credible. We all need to keep open minds about what is going on ....I would love to see some positive in the current situation but there doesnt seem to be any policy except kick the can down the road. The situation with the banks is completely bizarre and I am at a loss as to why Ireland rather than Europe is picking up the bill if they are too big to fail. There might be something we dont know ( maybe structural funds coming our way ?) but I suspect Cowen and Lenihan have just been worn down.  It is tiresome stuff.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 29, 2010, 11:57:12 AM
Another thing about the bail out that epitomizes the mindset here is the NPRF being raided so we have the bizarre situation that politicians' pensions - can't be touched, the (government) lawyers tell us,Bankers' golden parachutes - can't be touched, the (government) lawyers tell us, €17.5 bn pension fund for regular citizens - hey presto, given away by the government.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Maiden1 on November 29, 2010, 12:25:51 PM
Ireland is getting a 85 Billion bailout from other European counties at 5.8%.  Basically the other countries are going to the markets and getting a loan at say 2.5% then loaning this money to Ireland at 5.8%.  'It's in Britains interest to bailout Ireland' should be interpreted as we'd be mad not to lend them money at that rate.  Portugal are next, once we start hearing stories that a country could be in trouble that is exactly what happens, the markets get scared and refuse to lend them money at a reasonable rate then eventually they have to get a loan with conditions from the EU or IMF.  If Ireland was not in the Euro they could have intentionally devalued the punt instead of cutting all benefits.  Foreign businesses see that the punt is weak and that they get a lot of value for there dollar/pound/euro and start investing jobs in Ireland.  People looking to go on holiday see the weak punt and think Ireland is a good place to go for a cheap holiday, Irish goods are cheap so the export market is strong.  All these thing would help the Irish Economy.  Because Ireland is tied to the Euro none of these options are available any longer.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on November 29, 2010, 12:26:34 PM
Can someone explain where the cash reserve came from?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on November 29, 2010, 12:36:41 PM
Another thing, the money moves here before we return it with interest and we think we are getting bailed out?

The EU problem is currently in Ireland and they want to keep it here. Fair enough I see the sense in that. However, there is no sense in Ireland footing the bill.

It's like having a swine flu outbreak in Mayo which resulted from poor common Irish agriculture laws. Quarentining Mayo for 4 years with a very expence operation and then billing the people of Mayo for it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hardy on November 29, 2010, 12:40:32 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on November 29, 2010, 12:26:34 PM
Can someone explain where the cash reserve came from?

Borrowed money, I think. This is the money they were talking about when they said they had enough funding in place until mid-July. Though why it would have been borrowed and incurring interest before it was needed, I don't understand.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on November 29, 2010, 12:42:22 PM
Quote from: Hardy on November 29, 2010, 12:40:32 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on November 29, 2010, 12:26:34 PM
Can someone explain where the cash reserve came from?

Borrowed money, I think. This is the money they were talking about when they said they had enough funding in place until mid-July. Though why it would have been borrowed and incurring interest before it was needed, I don't understand.

Maybe they knew at that stage that we were fucked and bought themselves enough to get to an election?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 29, 2010, 02:24:20 PM
QuoteBorrowed money, I think

You sure about that Hardy? I thought it came from our PRSI contributions??
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hardy on November 29, 2010, 02:52:42 PM
Borrowed off us then!

Seriously, not sure at all Declan. But the €19M annual deficit is borrowed from somewhere and I don't know of any other pot of money other than the NPRF (of fond memory).
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 29, 2010, 03:33:18 PM
Quote from: Hardy on November 29, 2010, 02:52:42 PM
Borrowed off us then!

Seriously, not sure at all Declan. But the €19M annual deficit is borrowed from somewhere and I don't know of any other pot of money other than the NPRF (of fond memory).

Apparently there are €11bn worth of tax breaks annually. And then there's tax evasion. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: lawnseed on November 29, 2010, 06:54:17 PM
i see ff election campaign has started already dr. pat hononan top banker started the ball rolling today on rte radio. lots of "going forward, turning corners, confidence in the market, the best deal" etc..  all ff need is a couple more credible stooges like him and rte putting flowers on it, and cowen will give the next election a fair shake (and yes the irish electorate ARE that dumb). i give it 10 days about they'll come up with some shite on adams probably supplied by their friends the brits
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 29, 2010, 06:56:20 PM
Quote from: lawnseed on November 29, 2010, 06:54:17 PM
i see ff election campaign has started already dr. pat hononan top banker started the ball rolling today on rte radio. lots of "going forward, turning corners, confidence in the market, the best deal" etc..  all ff need is a couple more credible stooges like him and rte putting flowers on it, and cowen will give the next election a fair shake (and yes the irish electorate ARE that dumb). i give it 10 days about they'll come up with some shite on adams probably supplied by their friends the brits

If the Government weren't so weak they would have 'asked' Honohan for his resignation last week after he effectively announced the bailout and confirmed Cowen and Lenny were lying. He might be talking up the bailout today, but he is no FF stooge.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hardy on November 29, 2010, 07:35:24 PM
Quote from: lawnseed on November 29, 2010, 06:54:17 PM
i see ff election campaign has started already dr. pat hononan top banker started the ball rolling today on rte radio. lots of "going forward, turning corners, confidence in the market, the best deal" etc..  all ff need is a couple more credible stooges like him and rte putting flowers on it, and cowen will give the next election a fair shake (and yes the irish electorate ARE that dumb). i give it 10 days about they'll come up with some shite on adams probably supplied by their friends the brits

Even if they are planning naughty moves against Adams, you could still be paranoid.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: lawnseed on November 29, 2010, 08:48:19 PM
who appointed honahan are you sure it wasnt cowen
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 29, 2010, 08:48:35 PM
Let there be no panic. It is all a media frenzy.
Also check out the latest in face surgery .

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WBVA1lyplG8
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 29, 2010, 08:49:27 PM
Quote from: lawnseed on November 29, 2010, 08:48:19 PM
who appointed honahan are you sure it wasnt cowen

I'd say it was the Eurocrats. Cowen would have appointed Bertie if he could.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: INDIANA on November 29, 2010, 08:50:23 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 29, 2010, 06:56:20 PM
Quote from: lawnseed on November 29, 2010, 06:54:17 PM
i see ff election campaign has started already dr. pat hononan top banker started the ball rolling today on rte radio. lots of "going forward, turning corners, confidence in the market, the best deal" etc..  all ff need is a couple more credible stooges like him and rte putting flowers on it, and cowen will give the next election a fair shake (and yes the irish electorate ARE that dumb). i give it 10 days about they'll come up with some shite on adams probably supplied by their friends the brits

If the Government weren't so weak they would have 'asked' Honohan for his resignation last week after he effectively announced the bailout and confirmed Cowen and Lenny were lying. He might be talking up the bailout today, but he is no FF stooge.

Honohan is the only banking asset this country has left
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 29, 2010, 08:52:55 PM
QuoteLet there be no panic. It is all a media frenzy.
Also check out the latest in face surgery .

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WBVA1lyplG8

Its worse than Alice in Wonderland. What a gobshite.

I thought Honohan was very unimpressive in those interviews today - Pressure getting to him I wonder?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: lawnseed on November 29, 2010, 08:54:20 PM
i'd say his "outburst" to the meejah was nicely planned,  it saved biffo and lenny the bother of backtracking. not that their necks are that thick they'd have spun it out some way >:(
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 29, 2010, 09:16:51 PM
Quote from: lawnseed on November 29, 2010, 08:48:19 PM
who appointed honahan are you sure it wasnt cowen

Honahan was appointed by Lenihan to give some credibility to the Central Bank. He was an economic advisor to Garrett Fitzgerald when he was Taoiseach in the 1980s.

I am not trying to stop you from firing shots at FF, but you need to aim better.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 29, 2010, 09:18:24 PM
I thought this was good

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEGwALtzUmc&list=ULBnDClRzdpZ4&playnext=2
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Canalman on November 29, 2010, 10:21:04 PM
Almost sure we are looking at an almighty Yalta type summit in the next year or so with a "Let's start from scratch again" agenda.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 29, 2010, 10:23:23 PM
QuoteYalta type summit

With the same geographic division of spoils!!!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 29, 2010, 10:46:30 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on November 29, 2010, 10:41:28 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 29, 2010, 06:56:20 PM
Quote from: lawnseed on November 29, 2010, 06:54:17 PM
i see ff election campaign has started already dr. pat hononan top banker started the ball rolling today on rte radio. lots of "going forward, turning corners, confidence in the market, the best deal" etc..  all ff need is a couple more credible stooges like him and rte putting flowers on it, and cowen will give the next election a fair shake (and yes the irish electorate ARE that dumb). i give it 10 days about they'll come up with some shite on adams probably supplied by their friends the brits

If the Government weren't so weak they would have 'asked' Honohan for his resignation last week after he effectively announced the bailout and confirmed Cowen and Lenny were lying. He might be talking up the bailout today, but he is no FF stooge.

If hei sn't a stooge (i'm not convinced either way) he is a pawn. It was very convinient for Honohan to put the record straight and then have FF ministers and the media and opposition argue about what he actually said. Every other replay Lenihan made last week started with "what prof Honohan actually said was...". It left it so that Lenihan could argue with what Honohan had 'actually said' rather than saying it himself and then arguing later that he 'actually said' something different.

He asked for and got an interview on National radio to say his bosses were lying. They can spin it all they want this week, they are still his bosses. Its not his fault, its ours.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 29, 2010, 11:01:50 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on November 29, 2010, 10:50:44 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 29, 2010, 10:46:30 PM


He asked for and got an interview on National radio to say his bosses were lying. They can spin it all they want this week, they are still his bosses. Its not his fault, its ours.

"I'm sorry but I don't accept that, what he was actually saying was....."

I agree with you but you have to ask yourself why? Did he feel it was his patriotic duty? Who benefited from it? 5 mins before this happened how did FF plan to tell the Nation that they had been feeding us crap all week?

I think he was watching the banks go to the wall while our glorious Brians were still denying there was a problem.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 29, 2010, 11:06:39 PM
Anyone watching frontline - Good God. How incompetent is Andrews? It looks like Pat is trying to impress the new employers. That guy Phillippe is basically laughing at the two idiots to his right
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: orangeman on November 29, 2010, 11:09:00 PM
Quote from: Declan on November 29, 2010, 11:06:39 PM
Anyone watching frontline - Good God. How incompetent is Andrews? It looks like Pat is trying to impress the new employers. That guy Phillippe is basically laughing at the two idiots to his right
[/b]


Embarassing.

Everytime he asks Brian Hayes, all he can say is that they will set out to renegotiate aspects of the bail out pacakge.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 29, 2010, 11:12:04 PM
How more obvious can it be. Separate the banks, cut them loose, debt for equity swap.
He must be thinking if this is what the Irish politicians are like God help the country!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 29, 2010, 11:19:46 PM
Jaysus did Andrews just say FF put the taxpayer first :o :o 

Unreal fully delusional
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 29, 2010, 11:27:04 PM
Quote from: Declan on November 29, 2010, 11:19:46 PM
Jaysus did Andrews just say FF put the taxpayer first :o :o 

Unreal fully delusional

Yes, but he meant overboard.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: orangeman on November 29, 2010, 11:37:19 PM
Quote from: Declan on November 29, 2010, 11:19:46 PM
Jaysus did Andrews just say FF put the taxpayer first :o :o 

Unreal fully delusional


And he kept a straight face !!!!!!!!!!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: highorlow on November 30, 2010, 12:05:23 AM
Lads ye are a bit naive if ye think that either Lenihen or Honohan are actually talking to us in any interviews. They are not talking to us they are talking to the markets. This is what they have been at for the last 12 mths or so.

By the looks of things the markets aren't listening though. AJ will be busy for the next while!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on November 30, 2010, 10:29:50 AM
http://www.financeandeconomics.org/Articles%20archive/2010.11.28%20Collapsing_Europe.htm

Collapsing Europe

They must be keeping their fingers firmly crossed in Brussels, even praying that the Irish rescue package will do more, much more than buy a little breathing space. Relying on divine intervention will not be good enough, because there are three separate problems that will now make the financial collapse of the euro area a racing certainty. These problems are the large amounts of cross-border lending, misguided economic responses, and creditor-debtor politics.

The scale of the Irish financial threat is considerably greater than commonly realised and presented, because the relative size of the Irish economy is being confused with the size of its external banking obligations which are significantly larger than those of Spain or Italy.  Cross-border loans to Ireland by BIS-reporting banks amount to the equivalent of $715bn, and the comparable figures for Spain are $534bn and for Italy $467bn. Of course these are not the only cross-border financial flows, because they do not include outward banking deposits and securitised debt issued by the Irish government and large companies. But they are the figures that matter.

So we must focus on the banks, because they are at the heart of the real crisis.  The cross-border loans by BIS-reporting banks for all the PIIGS amounts to $1,982bn at mid-year, which is 32% of the euro area total and disproportionate relative to the size of the economies involved.  So if the largest of these debtors, which is Ireland, is allowed to fail there would probably be a full-blown banking crisis even before markets turn their attention to either Spain or Italy.

These same statistics show that between September 2008 and June this year the PIIGS between them have also suffered loan withdrawals of $611bn, which indicates how hard their economies are being squeezed by the withdrawal of credit. For Ireland alone the figure is $165bn, about the same as one year's GDP, and more withdrawals will have taken place since June, putting the proposed rescue package of only $113bn into context. This acute deflation is being conducted at the same time as taxes are being increased, which brings us to the serious mistakes being made in the management of the economy.

The Irish government has got one thing right: the importance of keeping corporation tax low. Brussels views things differently, partly because Germany and France see Ireland as unfair competition with respect to corporate location. So between Brussels and Dublin an ugly camel is born, and their attempts to close the budget deficit by a mixture of tax rises and public sector wage cuts while robbing state pension funds betrays a lack of resolve to tackle banking solvency properly. It is madness to punish the Irish people for the current banking crisis, because Brussels is shooting at the wrong target: rescuing the European banking system does not require the Irish economy to be driven into the ground, it requires Brussels to recognise it has a full-scale banking problem on its hands.

Both lender and borrower must bear responsibility for such wrong-headedness.  It amounts to a protection of jobs in the public sector, while taxes are raised from the private sector and pensions are robbed.  Taxing individuals and the private sector to reduce budget deficits prevents vital capital formation and so condemns Ireland's economy to a prolonged period without recovery. This socially-driven approach is counterproductive, a point which will not be lost on the markets, when they work out that Ireland will be less able to repay its creditors because economic recovery, upon which government finances rely, is effectively cancelled.

So markets are now faced with a bail-out too small to reverse the run on the Irish banks, and by an Irish economy that has no chance of economic recovery in the foreseeable future.  A bail-out of $113bn amounts to an injection of only half of the money withdrawn from Ireland by the banks in the last two years. It is simply not enough.

The crisis is not helped by the understandable reluctance of the German people to commit more good money after bad.  It was difficult enough for Angela Merkel to come up with the funding for Greece, which was sold to the German electorate as a one-off.  Six months later it's Ireland, presumably then Portugal, then Spain. It is no surprise that she wanted someone else, like senior bondholders to share the pain. But talk of bondholder haircuts merely creates a new bond market crisis to add to the banking crisis and will drive up Irish bond yields even further; and back-peddling on this issue is unlikely to undo the damage.

The importance of Ireland is that is the biggest cross-border banking debtor of all the PIIGS.  If the Irish banks are not saved, the European banking system will probably go under, and soon, without waiting for the pressure to mount on Portugal Spain and Italy. The politicians and bureaucrats of Euroland have not demonstrated a sufficient sense of urgency and understanding of the true crisis to resolve it: rather they have made it worse.  It is now becoming impossible to see a way out of the euro-banking problem without the ECB giving in on its anti-inflation stance and implementing aggressive quantitative easing. However, the ECB was set up to survive attempts to get it to inflate, so if it backs down from its sound-money stance in the middle of this crisis, the euro itself will suffer a loss of confidence.

It looks like divine intervention is the best hope after all.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: highorlow on November 30, 2010, 11:12:10 AM
QuoteIt looks like divine intervention is the best hope after all.

Eamonn O'Cuiv was right!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 30, 2010, 11:20:16 AM
1. Letter to Opposition
http://www.progressive-economy.ie/2010/11/unite-letter-to-opposition-parties.html


2. Austerity isn't working .

http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/eu/forecasts/2010_autumn/ie_en.pdf

http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2010/11/29/european-commissions-autumn-forecast/#comments
November 29th, 2010 at 3:34 pm
The EC forecast of the Irish General government balance is at 10.3% in 2011 and 9.1% in 2012 "taking into account broad consolidation measures of 2.2% of GDP" (page 94 of the document). Yet the Irish government is engaging in austerity?

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on November 30, 2010, 11:28:07 AM
Quote from: seafoid on November 30, 2010, 11:20:16 AM
1. Letter to Opposition
http://www.progressive-economy.ie/2010/11/unite-letter-to-opposition-parties.html


2. Austerity isn't working .

http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/eu/forecasts/2010_autumn/ie_en.pdf

http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2010/11/29/european-commissions-autumn-forecast/#comments
November 29th, 2010 at 3:34 pm
The EC forecast of the Irish General government balance is at 10.3% in 2011 and 9.1% in 2012 "taking into account broad consolidation measures of 2.2% of GDP" (page 94 of the document). Yet the Irish government is engaging in austerity?

And the money we had for an possible stimulus has been given up.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: whiskeysteve on November 30, 2010, 12:16:49 PM
Irelands woes summed up in one hilarious animation. Did this really come out of Taiwan? In any case its brilliant

http://www.businessinsider.com/irish-bailout-taiwanese-animation-2010-11
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 30, 2010, 12:37:31 PM
QuoteIrelands woes summed up in one hilarious animation. Did this really come out of Taiwan? In any case its brilliant

http://www.businessinsider.com/irish-bailout-taiwanese-animation-2010-11

Accurate alright - And all those FF rats now departing the sinking ship as well!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: JohnDenver on November 30, 2010, 01:16:31 PM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on November 30, 2010, 12:16:49 PM
Irelands woes summed up in one hilarious animation. Did this really come out of Taiwan? In any case its brilliant

http://www.businessinsider.com/irish-bailout-taiwanese-animation-2010-11

Father Ted and Dougal in with placards at the very end too  :D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 30, 2010, 01:52:56 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on November 30, 2010, 11:28:07 AM
Quote from: seafoid on November 30, 2010, 11:20:16 AM
1. Letter to Opposition
http://www.progressive-economy.ie/2010/11/unite-letter-to-opposition-parties.html


2. Austerity isn't working .

http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/eu/forecasts/2010_autumn/ie_en.pdf

http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2010/11/29/european-commissions-autumn-forecast/#comments
November 29th, 2010 at 3:34 pm
The EC forecast of the Irish General government balance is at 10.3% in 2011 and 9.1% in 2012 "taking into account broad consolidation measures of 2.2% of GDP" (page 94 of the document). Yet the Irish government is engaging in austerity?

And the money we had for an possible stimulus has been given up.

not yet. bond yields up to 9.4% and contagion is spreading to corporate bonds in EZ land
the deal is dead.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on November 30, 2010, 01:57:32 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 30, 2010, 01:52:56 PM

not yet. bond yields up to 9.4% and contagion is spreading to corporate bonds in EZ land
the deal is dead.

Does that mean the Budget will fail and we will have an election?

Will the EU/IMF along with the Irish Government spread the pain across the EU rather than corner it all of in Ireland.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: turk on November 30, 2010, 02:02:12 PM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on November 30, 2010, 12:16:49 PM
Irelands woes summed up in one hilarious animation. Did this really come out of Taiwan? In any case its brilliant

http://www.businessinsider.com/irish-bailout-taiwanese-animation-2010-11

Excellent!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 30, 2010, 02:36:17 PM
Zapatista

The plan was supposed to bring down bond yields and supposed to bring calm and stop the fire spreading. It hasn't.
There is no point in spending the NPRF on the banks because they are bust. The EU has to come up with another cunning plan otherwise the whole sh*thouse is going to explode. 




http://notesonthefront.typepad.com/politicaleconomy/2010/11/does-anyone-else-get-this.html

November 30, 2010
Does Anyone Else Get This?
'Cause I don't. Commissioner Rehn announces on Sunday that he 'strongly' supports the Government's National Recovery Plan. He even said:
Implementing the plan will offer a "sound basis for stable, job-creating growth."
Then, on Monday, he announces he doesn't believe the growth rates contained in the Plan. In fact, he so disbelieved them that the EU Commission tacked on another year to the Maastricht target. Question: how can you strongly support a plan when you so strongly disbelieve the projections that underpin them?
And I mean strongly. Here are some comparisons between the National Recovery Plan's projections and the ones that Rehn's department came out with the day after IMF/EU bail-out deal was signed. These cover the two-year period 2011 and 2012.
•   GDP: Government: 5 percent. EU: 2.8 percent. The EU is projecting a growth rate at nearly half the Government's forecast.
•   GNP: Government: 3.5 percent. EU: 0 percent. Yes, that's right – 0 growth estimate in the domestic economy. The EU is actually measuring GNI which is the GNP plus transfers from the EU. Take away those transfers, and the GNP under the EU's forecast goes negative.
•   Consumer Spending: Government: 1 percent. EU: -2.8 percent. That's quite a turnaround.
•   Investment: Government: -0.7 percent. EU -10 percent. The Government is hoping for a rebound of 5.2 percent in 2012. The EU says investment will flat-line at 0 percent. Tomorrow has been postponed. 
•   Employment: Government: increase of 18,500. EU: decrease of 4,000. The EU projects employment creation will be half of the Government's target in 2012.
The immediate issue here is not who is right and who is wrong. Projections will change every quarter – though in Ireland's case of late they seem to be changing for the worse.
The issue here is how one can strongly believe in a plan when one strongly disagrees with what the plan will do.
All explanations are welcome.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Fear ón Srath Bán on November 30, 2010, 02:45:57 PM
This is simply sick (re the imminent austerity/impoverishment plan):

The think tank Tasc has pointed out that someone on €300,000 a year will pay an extra €1,860 in income tax. A person on €40,000 will pay exactly the same: €1,860.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 30, 2010, 02:50:23 PM
Check this out

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2010/1130/1224284430850.html

Support for wealth levy at 82%, research reveals

DEAGLÁN de  BRÉADÚN

TAX: THERE IS 82 per cent support for the introduction of a wealth tax, according to research commissioned by the Community Platform.

The platform is a coalition of 29 community action and other campaigning organisations. The group said a "nationally representative" sample of 1,016 respondents aged above 15 was asked by Ipsos MRBI whether the Government should impose the tax on individuals with net worth of more than €1 million and an annual income of more than €100,000.
"A total of 82 per cent of the respondents agreed the Government should introduce this tax. Interestingly, high levels of support were reflected across all age-groups, regions and social classes," the group said.
"We believe that those with significant wealth in Ireland must be required to pay their share, and the four-year plan refuses to tackle this issue head-on," said spokeswoman Anne Costello.
Among those surveyed, 85 per cent of women either agreed "strongly or slightly" with the proposition, compared to 79 per cent of men. Disagreement in the Dublin region was 17 per cent, compared to Connacht-Ulster at 8 per cent.
"In terms of social class, most likely to answer yes to the question, with 80 per cent, was the lowest social class category – 73 per cent of whom agreed strongly. It was those from the highest social class category who were more likely to strongly disagree at 21 per cent, 14 per cent of which disagreed strongly," the group said.
Community Platform's Siobhán O'Donoghue said: "We need to find ways of 'following the money', in terms of who pays, but also where actually the money and resources are located."
Financial consultant Peter Mathews said the wealth tax proposal was "a fresh way of looking at how we raise revenues . . . it's not just for the State, it's for society." Comparing the recession in Ireland to the Battle of Britain, Mr Mathews said there was "the same feeling of 'can we fight for our survival, can we assert ourselves?' The values that our parents had seem to have been eroded," he added.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hardy on November 30, 2010, 03:08:26 PM
That's hardly surprising, seafoid. I'm surprised that eighteen percent of people earn more than €100,000, because only they would have opposed this proposal. Everyone is in favour of taxing everybody but themselves.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 30, 2010, 03:17:10 PM
Quote from: Hardy on November 30, 2010, 03:08:26 PM
That's hardly surprising, seafoid. I'm surprised that eighteen percent of people earn more than €100,000, because only they would have opposed this proposal. Everyone is in favour of taxing everybody but themselves.

Hardy

It is surprising that the Irish times is discussing this sort of thing. They got rid of Eddie Holt, the very good TV reviewer before the last election because he was too lefty.  And Madam was a PD .

That 18% includes the aspirational people who think they will be rich in the future. In the US that figure would be 90%.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on November 30, 2010, 03:54:58 PM
A good summary here ...

http://www.ronanlyons.com/2010/11/30/irelands-economic-crisis-what-sort-of-hole-are-we-in-and-how-do-we-get-out/

Hardy is of course correct about tax ...collect it from the other fellow and its fine. 

The beards and the like need to realise higher tax rates do not always lead to higher tax take. People emigrate, work less or find some legitimate way to avoid it if tax is too high. IMO a property tax is inevitable and easily collected but a wealth tax has the potential to drive the people out of the country in the same way that higher corporation tax would see a multinational exodus and higher VAT/ Duties send shoppers to Newry.   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 30, 2010, 05:08:30 PM
Quote from: Fear ón Srath Bán on November 30, 2010, 02:45:57 PM
This is simply sick (re the imminent austerity/impoverishment plan):

The think tank Tasc has pointed out that someone on €300,000 a year will pay an extra €1,860 in income tax. A person on €40,000 will pay exactly the same: €1,860.
i'm not defending the lack of a properly progressive taxation system, but you have to look at this in terms of levies and extra prsi that have been heaped on higher earners over the past 18 months too.  It would be no surprise to see both levies and prsi get another hike this time around too - it allows them to spin that they haven't increased tax rates you see.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 30, 2010, 05:11:02 PM
Quote from: Hardy on November 30, 2010, 03:08:26 PM
That's hardly surprising, seafoid. I'm surprised that eighteen percent of people earn more than €100,000, because only they would have opposed this proposal. Everyone is in favour of taxing everybody but themselves.
i think it would only apply to people with net assets greater than 1m and with an income of greater than 100k.
How would the net asset valuations be determined?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hardy on November 30, 2010, 05:21:42 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on November 30, 2010, 05:11:02 PM
Quote from: Hardy on November 30, 2010, 03:08:26 PM
That's hardly surprising, seafoid. I'm surprised that eighteen percent of people earn more than €100,000, because only they would have opposed this proposal. Everyone is in favour of taxing everybody but themselves.
i think it would only apply to people with net assets greater than 1m and with an income of greater than 100k.
How would the net asset valuations be determined?

Yes -  I missed the €1M net worth bit in skimming the post.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Evil Genius on November 30, 2010, 05:33:16 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 30, 2010, 03:17:10 PM
Quote from: Hardy on November 30, 2010, 03:08:26 PM
That's hardly surprising, seafoid. I'm surprised that eighteen percent of people earn more than €100,000, because only they would have opposed this proposal. Everyone is in favour of taxing everybody but themselves.

Hardy

It is surprising that the Irish times is discussing this sort of thing. They got rid of Eddie Holt, the very good TV reviewer before the last election because he was too lefty.  And Madam was a PD .

That 18% includes the aspirational people who think they will be rich in the future. In the US that figure would be 90%.
Sorry for intruding on your debate with Hardy on the wider issues, but who exactly would these people in the Irish Republic be who are not presently rich, but think they will be in the future?

Holders of Lottery tickets? Rainbows-end followers? Nuclear Fission inventors?

If many of the rich cannot realistically hope to remain so in future (imo), how can the poor ever hope to become so?

Beyond that, I'm frankly amazed that nearly one-in-five still hold true to their hopes.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Rossfan on November 30, 2010, 05:41:18 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on November 30, 2010, 05:08:30 PM
you have to look at this in terms of levies and extra prsi that have been heaped on higher earners over the past 18 months too.  .

Correct me if I'm wrong but doesn't PRSI stop being paid on income over €70k pr annum.??
Obviously madcap Laissez faire ( s???) capitalism has now reached the end of its latest run ( c.1980 to 2007) (Leaving Ireland in a mess just as it did in the 1840s) so it's time the "Brains"(sic) a.k.a Economists and Politicians came up with another method of getting Anglo-Euro-American Society back on the rails again.
Ireland meanwhile has to start thinking local and small and see how we get on while paying back the Reparations imposed by the EU/IMF as punishment for 13 years of McCreevyism and Bertiebuilderism.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Fear ón Srath Bán on November 30, 2010, 06:09:24 PM
Quote from: Evil Genius on November 30, 2010, 05:33:16 PM
Sorry for intruding on your debate with Hardy on the wider issues, but who exactly would these people in the Irish Republic be who are not presently rich, but think they will be in the future?

Holders of Lottery tickets? Rainbows-end followers? Nuclear Fission inventors?

Huh?  ::)

I'll let you know when I've cracked Nuclear Fusion!  ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Evil Genius on November 30, 2010, 06:17:22 PM
Quote from: Fear ón Srath Bán on November 30, 2010, 06:09:24 PM
Quote from: Evil Genius on November 30, 2010, 05:33:16 PM
Sorry for intruding on your debate with Hardy on the wider issues, but who exactly would these people in the Irish Republic be who are not presently rich, but think they will be in the future?

Holders of Lottery tickets? Rainbows-end followers? Nuclear Fission inventors?

Huh?  ::)

I'll let you know when I've cracked Nuclear Fusion!  ;)
Sorry, dunno how, but I must have got the two concepts confissed...
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: lawnseed on November 30, 2010, 08:48:42 PM
nuclear fusion already cracked lads, cold fusion your thinking of ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 30, 2010, 09:56:01 PM
Quote from: Hardy on November 30, 2010, 05:21:42 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on November 30, 2010, 05:11:02 PM
Quote from: Hardy on November 30, 2010, 03:08:26 PM
That's hardly surprising, seafoid. I'm surprised that eighteen percent of people earn more than €100,000, because only they would have opposed this proposal. Everyone is in favour of taxing everybody but themselves.
i think it would only apply to people with net assets greater than 1m and with an income of greater than 100k.
How would the net asset valuations be determined?

Yes -  I missed the €1M net worth bit in skimming the post.

When it gets implemented the net worth bit will also be missing. That is the way it works. These groups often work on behalf of the Government rather than steering them as they often pretend.

Instead of wishing higher taxes on others (who will wish them back on you) we should be refusing to pay taxes to fund banks who lent recklessly whether they be German, French or Irish.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 30, 2010, 09:59:13 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 30, 2010, 09:56:01 PM
Quote from: Hardy on November 30, 2010, 05:21:42 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on November 30, 2010, 05:11:02 PM
Quote from: Hardy on November 30, 2010, 03:08:26 PM
That's hardly surprising, seafoid. I'm surprised that eighteen percent of people earn more than €100,000, because only they would have opposed this proposal. Everyone is in favour of taxing everybody but themselves.
i think it would only apply to people with net assets greater than 1m and with an income of greater than 100k.
How would the net asset valuations be determined?

Yes -  I missed the €1M net worth bit in skimming the post.

When it gets implemented the net worth bit will also be missing. That is the way it works. These groups often work on behalf of the Government rather than steering them as they often pretend.

Instead of wishing higher taxes on others (who will wish them back on you) we should be refusing to pay taxes to fund banks who lent recklessly whether they be German, French or Irish.

The budget has to be defeated. Do FG have the cojones? Otherwise they deserve to go to the kn**ker's yard with FF.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 30, 2010, 10:19:36 PM
Spanish 10 year bonds:
(http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?h=200&w=280&range=1y&type=gp_line&cfg=BQuoteComp_10.xml&ticks=GSPG10YR%3AIND&img=png)

If this graph keeps rising.........kaboom to the euro as we know it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 30, 2010, 10:23:17 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on November 30, 2010, 05:41:18 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on November 30, 2010, 05:08:30 PM
you have to look at this in terms of levies and extra prsi that have been heaped on higher earners over the past 18 months too.  .

Correct me if I'm wrong but doesn't PRSI stop being paid on income over €70k pr annum.??
Obviously madcap Laissez faire ( s???) capitalism has now reached the end of its latest run ( c.1980 to 2007) (Leaving Ireland in a mess just as it did in the 1840s) so it's time the "Brains"(sic) a.k.a Economists and Politicians came up with another method of getting Anglo-Euro-American Society back on the rails again.
Ireland meanwhile has to start thinking local and small and see how we get on while paying back the Reparations imposed by the EU/IMF as punishment for 13 years of McCreevyism and Bertiebuilderism.
For employees prsi stops at 75k, however they have a new health levy of 5% on all income.  They also have to pay income levies on all income before most reliefs at 4% between 75 and 175k and at 6% thereafter.

For self-employed they have to pay the same income levies as above and there is no limit on prsi.

It's not correct therefore to say that higher income earners haven't been hit reasonably hard - whilst their tax bill hasn't increased hugely (yet), the extra amounts payable in levies and prsi (including health levy) are pretty significant.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on November 30, 2010, 10:26:15 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 30, 2010, 09:59:13 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 30, 2010, 09:56:01 PM
Quote from: Hardy on November 30, 2010, 05:21:42 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on November 30, 2010, 05:11:02 PM
Quote from: Hardy on November 30, 2010, 03:08:26 PM
That's hardly surprising, seafoid. I'm surprised that eighteen percent of people earn more than €100,000, because only they would have opposed this proposal. Everyone is in favour of taxing everybody but themselves.
i think it would only apply to people with net assets greater than 1m and with an income of greater than 100k.
How would the net asset valuations be determined?

Yes -  I missed the €1M net worth bit in skimming the post.

When it gets implemented the net worth bit will also be missing. That is the way it works. These groups often work on behalf of the Government rather than steering them as they often pretend.

Instead of wishing higher taxes on others (who will wish them back on you) we should be refusing to pay taxes to fund banks who lent recklessly whether they be German, French or Irish.

The budget has to be defeated. Do FG have the cojones? Otherwise they deserve to go to the kn**ker's yard with FF.
I don't know whether that's even the right course anymore, i don't know if it really matters - europe may think it's really important, but it's just a piece of legislation that can be easily amended next month anyway, so maybe it'd be better to let it pass and fool them into thinking we're swallowing their solution.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Expat on November 30, 2010, 10:44:15 PM
W hat the Irish people pathic is  your apathy. Can anyone give me one good reason why there wasn't    a protest in Ireland  with over a million people in the last year, do ye really stand for anything?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 30, 2010, 11:07:12 PM
Quote from: Expat on November 30, 2010, 10:44:15 PM
W hat the Irish people pathic is  your apathy. Can anyone give me one good reason why there wasn't    a protest in Ireland  with over a million people in the last year, do ye really stand for anything?

I don't accept that.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Fear ón Srath Bán on November 30, 2010, 11:13:44 PM
Quote from: lawnseed on November 30, 2010, 08:48:42 PM
nuclear fusion already cracked lads, cold fusion your thinking of ;)

Specifically, I'm talking about commerically viable controlled thermonuclear fusion for civil purposes  :P ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Orangemac on November 30, 2010, 11:41:17 PM
I work in the South so obviously I have an interest in this.

The likes of Lenihan, Coughlan, Cowen with their poliitical patronage think anyone earning over 100k facing a 2% hike is the same somone earning 30k facing a 2% hike.

Share the pain my arse.

The PRSI ceiling needs to be abolished, an extra 3% on the top tax rate and the Croke Park deal needs to be revisited for anyone earnin over 100k in the public sector.

"But but these people will leave the country...." Let them go to F***.

I'd like to see the consultants earning 250k getting that somewhere else.

The whole charade is summed by ESB workers gettng a bonus payment of 3k each recently for the profits made in the last year while the pension deficit is over 1bn.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on December 01, 2010, 12:20:30 AM
Quote from: Orangemac on November 30, 2010, 11:41:17 PM


I'd like to see the consultants earning 250k getting that somewhere else.

and see if they are allowed to spend up to 20% of their time on private work too, or get paid double for VHI patients seen on public visits......
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Lar Naparka on December 01, 2010, 01:04:19 AM
Quote from: muppet on November 30, 2010, 10:19:36 PM
Spanish 10 year bonds:
(http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?h=200&w=280&range=1y&type=gp_line&cfg=BQuoteComp_10.xml&ticks=GSPG10YR%3AIND&img=png)

If this graph keeps rising.........kaboom to the euro as we know it.
Yes, it will keep rising and so will the corresponding graphs for Portugal and Italy.
All three countries have come under the spotlight in recent days and there is no reason to suppose that they don't have greedy bankers who gambled recklessly and lost heavily when the recession struck.
Signs are that the Eurozone is in deep, deep trouble.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on December 01, 2010, 01:46:56 AM
Quote from: Lar Naparka on December 01, 2010, 01:04:19 AMYes, it will keep rising and so will the corresponding graphs for Portugal and Italy.
All three countries have come under the spotlight in recent days and there is no reason to suppose that they don't have greedy bankers who gambled recklessly and lost heavily when the recession struck.
Signs are that the Eurozone is in deep, deep trouble.
i think their problem is more straightforward, they've been living on borrowed money for many, many years now (see the US and UK for example) and this time, when Paul comes knocking, they can't see Peter anywhere.

It looks like it's going to have to be joint eurozone borrowing or no eurozone.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on December 01, 2010, 07:57:41 AM
Folks - it's all going to end in tears
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nD2Vr7lb-D4 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nD2Vr7lb-D4)

McWilliams spot on again but sure what would he know
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/david-mcwilliams/david-mcwilliams-bailout-will-sink-ireland-before-we-can-even-swim-2442878.html (http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/david-mcwilliams/david-mcwilliams-bailout-will-sink-ireland-before-we-can-even-swim-2442878.html)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on December 01, 2010, 09:02:55 AM
I think it's great. Germany, France etc will have to face our and their problems and not have us bail them out.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on December 01, 2010, 09:25:53 AM
I was watching Baz Andrews on that pat kenny programme on the RTE player and i can state with confidence that he will be the last generation of that family to stand for political office in Ireland. Philippe Legrain of LSE wiped the floor with him.   
Putting the taxpayer first my arse. Even the FT, no friend usually of the poor or the oppressed is calling the Government's bluff. The taxpayer is being shafted.  Holders of sov bonds are next.   

http://www.vexnews.com/news/11669/useless-gobshites-irish-daily-star-lets-irish-pm-brian-cowen-have-it/

Surely there is a majority in the Dáil to bring down the government in the national interest. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on December 01, 2010, 10:02:27 AM
Quote from: seafoid on December 01, 2010, 09:25:53 AM
I was watching Baz Andrews on that pat kenny programme on the RTE player and i can state with confidence that he will be the last generation of that family to stand for political office in Ireland. Philippe Legrain of LSE wiped the floor with him.   
Putting the taxpayer first my arse. Even the FT, no friend usually of the poor or the oppressed is calling the Government's bluff. The taxpayer is being shafted.  Holders of sov bonds are next.   

http://www.vexnews.com/news/11669/useless-gobshites-irish-daily-star-lets-irish-pm-brian-cowen-have-it/

Surely there is a majority in the Dáil to bring down the government in the national interest.

Saw him on the Front Line too, very bad reaction to him at the end from the crowd. I thought Brian Hayes and Philippe Legrain! where good enough on the show. Have to say I found the Left Wing Alliance and National Forum (I think they where called) quite interesting. A left wing and a centre-right group. As I understand the LWA will be running 9 candidates while the Forum will act as a think tank for the time being but may run in the upcoming elections. Was a bit more impressed by the centre-right argument, but then again that sits closer to my political views. I am a strong believer in the 12.5% Corpo tax rate.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: ludermor on December 01, 2010, 10:05:44 AM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1130/eu_economy.html

The back lash starts, it will be some craic if/when the likes of Intel/Hewlett Packard pull out of Ireland.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on December 01, 2010, 10:07:10 AM
http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2010/12/01/barry-eichengreen-on-the-irish-bailout/#more-8831

Ireland's Reparations Burden

Barry Eichengreen
The Irish "rescue package" finalized over the weekend is a disaster. You can say one thing for the European Commission, the ECB and the German government: they never miss an opportunity to make things worse.
It pains me to say this. I'm probably the most pro-euro economist on my side of the Atlantic. Not because I think the euro area is the perfect monetary union, but because I have always thought that a Europe of scores of national currencies would be even less stable. I'm also a believer in the larger European project. But given this abject failure of European and German leadership, I am going to have to rethink my position.
The Irish "program" solves exactly nothing – it simply kicks the can down the road. A public debt that will now top out at around 130 per cent of GDP has not been reduced by a single cent. The interest payments that the Irish sovereign will have to make have not been reduced by a single cent, given the rate of 5.8% on the international loan. After a couple of years, not just interest but also principal is supposed to begin to be repaid. Ireland will be transferring nearly 10 per cent of its national income as reparations to the bondholders, year after painful year.

This is not politically sustainable, as anyone who remembers Germany's own experience with World War I reparations should know. A populist backlash is inevitable. The Commission, the ECB and the German Government have set the stage for a situation where Ireland's new government, once formed early next year, rejects the budget negotiated by its predecessor. Do Mr. Trichet and Mrs. Merkel have a contingency plan for this?

Nor is the situation economically sustainable. Ireland is told to reduce wages and costs. It must engage in "internal devaluation" because the traditional option of external devaluation is not available to a country that lacks its own national currency. But the more successful it is at reducing wages and costs, the heavier its inherited debt load becomes. Public spending then has to be cut even deeper. Taxes have to rise even higher to service the debt of the government and of wards of the state like the banks.
This in turn implies the need for yet more internal devaluation, which further heightens the burden of the debt in a vicious spiral.

This is the phenomenon of "debt deflation" about which the Yale economist Irving Fisher wrote in a famous article at the nadir of the Great Depression.

For internal devaluation to work, therefore, the value of debts, expressed in euros, has to be reduced. This would have been particularly easy in the Irish case. A bright red line could have been drawn between the third of the government debt that guarantees the obligations of the banks, on the one hand, and the rest of the government's debt, on the other. The third representing the debts of the Irish banking system could have been restructured. Bondholders could have been offered 20 cents on the euro, assuming that the Irish banks still have some residual economic value. If those banks are insolvent, the bondholders could – and should – have been wiped out.

Irish public debt would then have topped out at maybe 100% of GDP. And the Irish program would have had a hope of working. As it is, the program will have to be revisited, perhaps as soon as next year. Investors know this, which is why Irish spreads have barely budged.

In fact, this is exactly what the IMF, which at least knows how to add, has been pushing for over the last week. But the Fund was unable to overcome the objections of the Commission, the ECB and the German government.

One can interpret the intransigence of the German government and its EU allies in two ways. First, they understand neither economics nor politics. As Tallyrand said of the Bourbons, "They have learned nothing, and they have forgotten nothing."

Alternatively, policy makers in Germany – and in France and Britain – are scared to death over what Ireland restructuring its bank debt would do to their own banking systems. If so, the appropriate response is not to lend to Ireland – to pile yet more debt on the country's existing debt – but to properly capitalize their own banking systems so that the latter can withstand the inevitable Irish restructuring.

But European officials are scared to death not just by their banks but by their publics, who don't want to hear that public money is required for bank recapitalization. It's safer, in their view, to kick the can down the road in the hope that something good will turn up – to rely on "the luck of the Irish."

As John Maynard Keynes – who knew about matters like reparations – once said, leadership involves "ruthless truth telling." In Europe today, recent events make clear, leadership is in short supply.
Barry Eichengreen is George C. Pardee and Helen N. Pardee Professor of Economics and Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on December 01, 2010, 10:10:58 AM
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on December 01, 2010, 10:02:27 AM
Quote from: seafoid on December 01, 2010, 09:25:53 AM
I was watching Baz Andrews on that pat kenny programme on the RTE player and i can state with confidence that he will be the last generation of that family to stand for political office in Ireland. Philippe Legrain of LSE wiped the floor with him.   
Putting the taxpayer first my arse. Even the FT, no friend usually of the poor or the oppressed is calling the Government's bluff. The taxpayer is being shafted.  Holders of sov bonds are next.   

http://www.vexnews.com/news/11669/useless-gobshites-irish-daily-star-lets-irish-pm-brian-cowen-have-it/

Surely there is a majority in the Dáil to bring down the government in the national interest.

Saw him on the Front Line too, very bad reaction to him at the end from the crowd.

I read an interview in the Sunday Tribune with his older brother a few years ago. 2 of the brothers are FF ministers but the other brother was dyslexic I think and said going around clinic with his Dad wasn't his cup of tea so he went off and did something completely different.   He actually said it sickened his h**e but he came across as a very principled character. Seeing this Andrews squirming on the set while Legrain looked as calm as you like was very interesting. He obviously doesn't believe the spin but he doesn't have the balls to say it.  Fianna Fáil are digging their own grave live on TV every night. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on December 01, 2010, 10:11:28 AM
Quote from: ludermor on December 01, 2010, 10:05:44 AM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1130/eu_economy.html

The back lash starts, it will be some craic if/when the likes of Intel/Hewlett Packard pull out of Ireland.

Thats not good, its about time we burned the bondholders, let Germany, France and the U.K. bail out their banks not Ireland. We should keep our 12.5% corpo tax, Ireland should not be for turning.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hardy on December 01, 2010, 10:18:45 AM
The next bastard who says "kicking the can down the road" is liable to get his arse kicked down the road. I'll save the detail until the time comes. Because, yes - "the devil is in the detail".

Sometimes I think we're being commentated at by parrots.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hardy on December 01, 2010, 10:20:25 AM
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on December 01, 2010, 10:11:28 AM
Quote from: ludermor on December 01, 2010, 10:05:44 AM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1130/eu_economy.html

The back lash starts, it will be some craic if/when the likes of Intel/Hewlett Packard pull out of Ireland.

Thats not good, its about time we burned the bondholders, let Germany, France and the U.K. bail out their banks not Ireland. We should keep our 12.5% corpo tax, Ireland should not be for turning.

Don't worry lads. Our leaders promised us at the time of the Lisbon referendum and the other Lisbon referendum that this wouldn't happen. And we trust our leaders, so sleep well.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Kerry Mike on December 01, 2010, 10:30:34 AM
Quote
I read an interview in the Sunday Tribune with his older brother a few years ago. 2 of the brothers are FF ministers but the other brother was dyslexic I think and said going around clinic with his Dad wasn't his cup of tea so he went off and did something completely different.   He actually said it sickened his h**e but he came across as a very principled character. Seeing this Andrews squirming on the set while Legrain looked as calm as you like was very interesting. He obviously doesn't believe the spin but he doesn't have the balls to say it.  Fianna Fáil are digging their own grave live on TV every night. 


Is it this brother...
David McSavage (born David Andrews Jr.) is an Irish comedian. He is the son of an Irish politician, David Andrews and brother of Fianna Fáil politician Barry Andrews.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Fear ón Srath Bán on December 01, 2010, 11:06:38 AM
Regardless of what you may think of the man, this has merit, and an oul signature wouldn't go amiss:

Fintan O'Toole's petition (http://fintanotoole.ie/petition/)


Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on December 01, 2010, 11:19:43 AM
Quote from: Hardy on December 01, 2010, 10:18:45 AM
The next b**tard who says "kicking the can down the road" is liable to get his arse kicked down the road. I'll save the detail until the time comes. Because, yes - "the devil is in the detail".

Sometimes I think we're being commentated at by parrots.

At least the can would be kicked, Hardy. Not like that Meath ball in the Leinster final, eh?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on December 01, 2010, 11:20:51 AM
Quote from: Kerry Mike on December 01, 2010, 10:30:34 AM
Quote
I read an interview in the Sunday Tribune with his older brother a few years ago. 2 of the brothers are FF ministers but the other brother was dyslexic I think and said going around clinic with his Dad wasn't his cup of tea so he went off and did something completely different.   He actually said it sickened his h**e but he came across as a very principled character. Seeing this Andrews squirming on the set while Legrain looked as calm as you like was very interesting. He obviously doesn't believe the spin but he doesn't have the balls to say it.  Fianna Fáil are digging their own grave live on TV every night. 


Is it this brother...
David McSavage (born David Andrews Jr.) is an Irish comedian. He is the son of an Irish politician, David Andrews and brother of Fianna Fáil politician Barry Andrews.

That's him. More integrity than the brothers.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Denn Forever on December 01, 2010, 11:45:30 AM
Quote from: seafoid on December 01, 2010, 11:19:43 AM
Quote from: Hardy on December 01, 2010, 10:18:45 AM
The next b**tard who says "kicking the can down the road" is liable to get his arse kicked down the road. I'll save the detail until the time comes. Because, yes - "the devil is in the detail".

Sometimes I think we're being commentated at by parrots.

At least the can would be kicked, Hardy. Not like that Meath ball in the Leinster final, eh?

Its good to see we haven't lost our sense of humour and the more important things in life;P
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on December 01, 2010, 12:19:22 PM
Quote from: Fear ón Srath Bán on December 01, 2010, 11:06:38 AM
Regardless of what you may think of the man, this has merit, and an oul signature wouldn't go amiss:

Fintan O'Toole's petition (http://fintanotoole.ie/petition/)

Thanks for the link a fhear
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on December 01, 2010, 12:43:31 PM
1.   http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/nov/30/eurozone-crisis-what-the-experts-say
Willem Buiter, chief economist at Citigroup

in our view, the consolidated Irish sovereign and Irish domestic financial system is de facto insolvent.

Jim Reid, head of global strategy at Deutsche Bank

In speaking to clients and traders yesterday, it's clear that there is extremely low appetite to take fresh peripheral or financial (especially sub) exposure. There are an increasing number of investors who will not touch these assets at any price for now given all the uncertainty

Gary Jenkins, head of fixed income research at Evolution Securities

If bond yields keep rising like this then we may see a much faster move towards a de facto fiscal union with a central debt management office and a single European government bond, possibly under the auspices of the EFSF initially. A muddle-through option could involve the ECB [European central bank] announcing a "shock and awe" amount of QE [quantitative easing] to hoover up a significant part of government issuance. With the ECB expected to scale back extraordinary measures at this week's meeting, such an option would require the sharpest of U-turns, but might well be the most flexible and easy to implement in the short run.

David Buik at BGC Partners

The really visceral treatment has been meted out in the futures market. The bond cash market trading has been somewhat sedentary. If dealers wanted to shift a large amount it would not be possible to accommodate any size.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on December 01, 2010, 01:15:34 PM
Seafoid thanks for that Eichengreen article. Should be mandatory reading for everyone -
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Fear ón Srath Bán on December 01, 2010, 01:18:42 PM
Quote from: seafoid on December 01, 2010, 12:19:22 PM
Quote from: Fear ón Srath Bán on December 01, 2010, 11:06:38 AM
Regardless of what you may think of the man, this has merit, and an oul signature wouldn't go amiss:

Fintan O'Toole's petition (http://fintanotoole.ie/petition/)

Thanks for the link a fhear

Tá fáilte romhat a sheafoid. However unlikely, but would be great if he could muster a few hundred thousand.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on December 01, 2010, 01:23:54 PM
FSB - it is all about getting the message out. Maybe the horseracing thread would be a place to start ;)

All Ministers Out" is (initially) a FaceBook campaign to get ALL the 15 serving Cabinet Ministers to pay the political price for having been the most incompetent cabinet in the history of the state – and for being "Useless Gobshites", as the Daily Star put it.

We want each and every Minister to lose their Dail seat at the next election. We aim to actively campaign against each and every Minister's personal ambition of being elected as a public representative and returned to the next Dail. 

We welcome Dermot Ahern's decision today to step aside, and we call on other Minister's to do the same.

Go to FaceBook and search for "all ministers out" – join us as a friend, and give us your ideas on how to make this significant step to restoring power to the hands of the people

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Fear ón Srath Bán on December 01, 2010, 01:31:39 PM
Maith thú, will sign up to that Facebook page.

As for Dermot Ahern, welcome though his departure may be, the €320,000 departing gift is no substitute for sackcloth and ashes though; the bastid of Blaspheme!  ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on December 01, 2010, 01:35:52 PM
Quote from: Fear ón Srath Bán on December 01, 2010, 01:31:39 PM
Maith thú, will sign up to that Facebook page.

As for Dermot Ahern, welcome though his departure may be, the €320,000 departing gift is no substitute for sackcloth and ashes though; the bastid of Blaspheme!  ;)


The package is disgraceful considering Ahern's performance over the last 2 weeks.  Rat , sinking and ship are the words that come to me.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on December 01, 2010, 02:17:53 PM
QuoteThe package is disgraceful considering Ahern's performance over the last 2 weeks. 

Correct  - 23 years a TD someone said. What an unctuous horrible little character he is. Rats too good a description 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on December 01, 2010, 02:22:15 PM
Quote from: Declan on December 01, 2010, 02:17:53 PM
QuoteThe package is disgraceful considering Ahern's performance over the last 2 weeks. 

Correct  - 23 years a TD someone said. What an unctuous horrible little character he is. Rats too good a description

He was also foreign minister when the Yanks were using Shannon for torture flights.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on December 01, 2010, 02:59:56 PM
Quote from: Declan on December 01, 2010, 02:17:53 PM
QuoteThe package is disgraceful considering Ahern's performance over the last 2 weeks. 

Correct  - 23 years a TD someone said. What an unctuous horrible little character he is. Rats too good a description

He spent 2.5 of those years in opposition and has never been out of touch with the people.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Fear ón Srath Bán on December 01, 2010, 03:40:40 PM
(http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2010/11/26/1290808605851/27.11.2010-Martin-Rowson--001.jpg)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on December 01, 2010, 04:39:54 PM
I see Lenihan is at it again - blatantly lying.
Here's what he had to say about the thieving of the NPRF
This use of the NPRF has provoked the most bewildering criticism of all from parties who, having for years fundamentally disagreed with the very existence of the Fund, have now become its most ardent protectors. And on this point the arguments make absolutely no sense. Why would we borrow expensively to invest in our banks when we have money in a cash deposit earning a low rate of interest? And how on earth can we ask tax payers in other countries to contribute to a financial support package while we hold a sovereign wealth fund? We have a large problem with our banks which has forced us to seek this external assistance. In these circumstances, it is surely appropriate that our cash reserves should be deployed to help solve that problem.
Brian Lenihan TD, Minister for Finance

We didn't ask for support, they forced it on us. It was not our decision or even his decision, the IMF told him he had to use this cash. This was confirmed on Sunday even before Cowen spoke.

He also said that the deal doesn't have to be put to a Dail vote - as per the AG's advice - This the same advice that meant they had to be dragged throught the courts to hold a bye -election.

I hate to use this phrase but the govt behaviour is now tantamount to totalitarian fascism

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: whiskeysteve on December 01, 2010, 05:10:23 PM
"I have rarely come across anything so blatantly opposed to the interests of the people. Comments by readers of Irish newspapers reflect the outrage, but a protest after the bail-out announcement counted only 50,000 participants.

One last chance to escape from this draconian bail-out is the government vote on December 7. The government could fall apart, individual members could defect – anything is possible. If the plan passes -  good luck and all my sympathies to you, Irish people.
"

From a post on zerohedge.com:

Guest Post: Ireland: Bail-Out With A Boomerang
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/01/2010 11:13 -0500

Submitted by Alex Gloy, CIO of Lighthouse Investment Management

Ireland: Bail-out with a Boomerang

European government bond spreads have widened dramatically with the second country going bankrupt: Ireland.

An example of low indebtedness as recently as 2007 (25% debt-to-GDP ratio compared to 65% for Germany)  – the country has descended into financial chaos within 3 years. And, contrary to Greece, Ireland has not overspent, nor falsified government statistics.

This year alone, saving its banks from collapse will cost Ireland 32% of GDP.

But the EU/IMF rescue package saddles the country with another EUR 85bn of debt – more than 50% of GDP (remember, Maastricht criterion was 60%). The ratio would look even worse if you used the gross national product (GNP) instead (EUR 139bn vs. GDP 170bn for 2009[2]). A lot of global firms have shell companies in Ireland, where – due to the low corporate tax rate of 12.5% – profits are being booked. Royalties are charged towards holding companies in higher-tax countries to  avoid paying higher taxes. These tax shells are run by few employees and do not add much to the industrial output or tax base of the country. Hence GNP would be a better measure of economic strength.

It seems Ireland tried to resist a bail-out, but was forced to accept (Irish banks are hanging on by a thread of EU 130bn of loans from the ECB).

But wait a minute – non-Irish banks make up EUR 35bn of this amount[3].  And didn't some foreign banks (among them German Depfa, which was bought by Hypo Real Estate which in turn had to be rescued by the German government and has so far cost more than EUR 100bn) move their headquarters to Dublin to escape stricter regulation at home? And now the EU/IMF forces the Irish tax payer to bear the cost of bailing out those banks?

The government is doing its citizens a disservice by accepting a bail-out. The "National Recovery Plan 2011-2014″ intends to save EUR 15bn ("front-loaded" 6-5-4bn for the years 2011-13) by cutting expenses (10bn) and raising taxes (5bn) in order to reduce the budget deficit to less than 3% by 2014.

The budget plan sees GDP increasing by 1.75%, 3.25%, 3% and 2.75% in the years 2011-14.

Can anybody explain to me how an economy, which was shrinking by 11% (GNP) last year, that will be saddled with austerity (demand-reducing) measures of another 10% of GNP is supposed to grow? Not only have government tax revenues declined by 33% since 2007[4] but also will increased interest burden (because of the bail-out loans) eat up 20% of revenues by 2014 (up from 8% in 2009)[5].

The sanity of the authors of this "recovery plan" has to be questioned.

Everything happens for a reason. Probably the Irish tried first avoiding a bail-out. Then, as it became unavoidable, putting "fantasy" numbers in the budget just to get over with it and to be able to sell it to the people as a "recovery" story. The plan could have been to take some EU/IMF money (paid out in tranches) and then default (or hope for a miracle).  Or, more elegantly, let the banks go bust (like Iceland) and avoid bearing the costs for bailing them out.

The guys from the IMF/EU are no amateurs. Seeing through this possibility they mischievously demanded the Irish contribute EUR 17.5bn of money from the National Pension Reserve Fund and from the country's own cash reserves. Perversely, Ireland is rescuing itself with its own money. Hence, should the government dare to default, those pensioners will feel the cold as their money goes up in smoke.

I have rarely come across anything so blatantly opposed to the interests of the people. Comments by readers of Irish newspapers reflect the outrage, but a protest after the bail-out announcement counted only 50,000 participants.

One last chance to escape from this draconian bail-out is the government vote on December 7. The government could fall apart, individual members could defect – anything is possible. If the plan passes -  good luck and all my sympathies to you, Irish people.

The bond market has already reached its verdict: Ireland will eventually default. The 10-year government bond yield (9.35%) is now higher than before the bail-out announcement (roughly in the 8-9% range).

Why would the EU and IMF subordinate a country to such an endeavor guaranteed to fail?

Some point towards the 12.5% corporate tax rate being a thorn in other governments' sides. Some point towards EUR 139bn owed to German banks, among them apparently some Landesbanken (WestLB is said to stagger after Bayerische Landesbank recently walked away from a merger).

The message seems to be that one country's people has to pay because another county's people doesn't want to pay for its banks' mistakes.

When, according to credit default swap prices[6], Greece and Ireland have, despite bail-outs, the second and third highest default probability (55% and 40%) on earth, something has to – and will – give. We are talking about bankruptcies of entire countries. And, as outlined in earlier letters, the cohesion of the Euro zone. Which leads us to the next topic: how complacent must equity investors be not to see the imminent risks in Europe? Are they waiting for the German Constitutional Court to possibly veto any bail-out (as demanded by the "no bail-out clause") in February 2011?

The only solution for a last-minute attempt to save the Euro would be to abolish individual sovereign debt issuance and to replace by a supra-national issuer. Of course, Germany's credit rating would suffer, and its government bonds would tumble significantly. And even such a move would not solve one of the main problems: divergence in unit labor costs within the Euro zone over the last decade.

Half-hearted solutions could be a split into a "North-Euro" and "South-Euro" as proposed by Hans-Olaf Henkel[7]. But even that would lead to a run on banks within the weaker currency zone.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[2] Quarterly National Accounts, CSO Irish Central Statistics Office, March 25, 2010, page 1
[3] "Sharp rise in Irish banks' ECB borrowings" in: RTE News, October 29, 2010

[4] "The National Recovery Plan 2011-2014″ by the Irish Government, page 10

[5] "The National Recovery Plan 2011-2014″ by the Irish Government, page 8

[6] "Highest default probabilities" by: CMA, November 30, 2010

[7] "Wirtschaftsexperte Henkel fordert "Euro-Nord" und "Euro-Sued", dpa-AFX November 26, 2010
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on December 01, 2010, 05:15:40 PM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on December 01, 2010, 05:10:23 PM
"I have rarely come across anything so blatantly opposed to the interests of the people. Comments by readers of Irish newspapers reflect the outrage, but a protest after the bail-out announcement counted only 50,000 participants.


I reckon a majority of Irish people want to march but won't march behing a Trade Union or a Sinn Fein banner. If the Trade Unions left their banners at home and the Shinners & co. stopped trying to storm the Dáil more people might turn up.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on December 01, 2010, 05:47:55 PM
QuoteI reckon a majority of Irish people want to march but won't march behing a Trade Union or a Sinn Fein banner

Excuses excsues - I marched on Saturday and am not a TU member  - I brought my own sign. If I can I'll be there on Saturday not marching behind an SF banner but marching to get rid off this govt and treacherous deal.

PS - There were nearer 100K there last week rather than the"official" figures.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: pintsofguinness on December 01, 2010, 06:25:58 PM
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on December 01, 2010, 05:15:40 PM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on December 01, 2010, 05:10:23 PM
"I have rarely come across anything so blatantly opposed to the interests of the people. Comments by readers of Irish newspapers reflect the outrage, but a protest after the bail-out announcement counted only 50,000 participants.


I reckon a majority of Irish people want to march but won't march behing a Trade Union or a Sinn Fein banner. If the Trade Unions left their banners at home and the Shinners & co. stopped trying to storm the Dáil more people might turn up.
I reckon a majority of Irish people are still too wrapped up in themselves.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on December 01, 2010, 06:46:51 PM
Quote from: Declan on December 01, 2010, 05:47:55 PM
QuoteI reckon a majority of Irish people want to march but won't march behing a Trade Union or a Sinn Fein banner

Excuses excsues - I marched on Saturday and am not a TU member  - I brought my own sign. If I can I'll be there on Saturday not marching behind an SF banner but marching to get rid off this govt and treacherous deal.

PS - There were nearer 100K there last week rather than the"official" figures.

Those figures were shamelessly manipulated by RTE and the Gardai. The Guardian reported 100,000.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on December 01, 2010, 07:06:33 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on December 01, 2010, 06:25:58 PM
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on December 01, 2010, 05:15:40 PM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on December 01, 2010, 05:10:23 PM
"I have rarely come across anything so blatantly opposed to the interests of the people. Comments by readers of Irish newspapers reflect the outrage, but a protest after the bail-out announcement counted only 50,000 participants.


I reckon a majority of Irish people want to march but won't march behing a Trade Union or a Sinn Fein banner. If the Trade Unions left their banners at home and the Shinners & co. stopped trying to storm the Dáil more people might turn up.
I reckon a majority of Irish people are still too wrapped up in themselves.

Fair enough but seems the majority are very much against the Trade Unions and an overwhealming majority are against Sinn Fein.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on December 01, 2010, 07:09:52 PM
Quote from: seafoid on December 01, 2010, 06:46:51 PM
Quote from: Declan on December 01, 2010, 05:47:55 PM
QuoteI reckon a majority of Irish people want to march but won't march behing a Trade Union or a Sinn Fein banner

Excuses excsues - I marched on Saturday and am not a TU member  - I brought my own sign. If I can I'll be there on Saturday not marching behind an SF banner but marching to get rid off this govt and treacherous deal.

PS - There were nearer 100K there last week rather than the"official" figures.

Those figures were shamelessly manipulated by RTE and the Gardai. The Guardian reported 100,000.

Seafoid I can see why RTE might do this, but why would the Gards? They have nothing to gain?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on December 01, 2010, 09:19:44 PM
BLTD on the six o clock news says that Ireland's ability to pay nurses their salaries would not be possible without flushing their pension reserve fund down the toilet. What a craven b#st@rd.

http://www.rte.ie/player/#v=1086067 @ 14.10

It is the droit de seigneur of the bank bondholders

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on December 01, 2010, 09:23:42 PM
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on December 01, 2010, 07:09:52 PM
Quote from: seafoid on December 01, 2010, 06:46:51 PM
Quote from: Declan on December 01, 2010, 05:47:55 PM
QuoteI reckon a majority of Irish people want to march but won't march behing a Trade Union or a Sinn Fein banner

Excuses excsues - I marched on Saturday and am not a TU member  - I brought my own sign. If I can I'll be there on Saturday not marching behind an SF banner but marching to get rid off this govt and treacherous deal.

PS - There were nearer 100K there last week rather than the"official" figures.

Those figures were shamelessly manipulated by RTE and the Gardai. The Guardian reported 100,000.

Seafoid I can see why RTE might do this, but why would the Gards? They have nothing to gain?

The Gardai are an arm of a state that has failed its people. They don't want any threat to the current  incompetent elite.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: ardal on December 01, 2010, 10:40:25 PM
Apparently we're so crap, we could bring the whole EU down with us. What would happen if they kicked us out?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Orior on December 01, 2010, 10:52:24 PM
Quote from: ardal on December 01, 2010, 10:40:25 PM
Apparently we're so crap, we could bring the whole EU down with us. What would happen if they kicked us out?

Claim unfair dismissal, and take the feckers to court for 80 billion euro.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on December 01, 2010, 11:16:34 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 30, 2010, 11:20:16 AM
1. Letter to Opposition
http://www.progressive-economy.ie/2010/11/unite-letter-to-opposition-parties.html


Unite is affiliated to the Irish Congress of Trade Unions.

In 1987 two of the key architects of the 1st partnership deal were Bill Attley of the Federated Workers Union of Ireland (merged with ITGWU to form SIPTU) and Peter Cassells, Vice-President of ICTU. Certainly the early partnership agreements were good to the country, FF and to the union membership. But they also seem to have been good to the heads of the Trade Unions who are now calling for us to hit the streets.

In 2001, when Quangoism really took off, Cassells was made head of the http://www.ncpp.ie/ (http://www.ncpp.ie/). In the last decade he was also a member of the board of the http://www.nesdo.ie/ (http://www.nesdo.ie/) which oversees the work of the www.nesc.ie/ (http://www.nesc.ie/) and the aforementioned NCCP. It appears he has also been on the Boards of Forfas, the Board of the Digital Hub Development Agency. Accoding to Shane Ross in 'Wasters', he has also done consultancy work for An Post, the ESB and St. Patricks's Hospital.

Attley was on the Board of Fás, the RTE Authority, the Board of Eircom. He was on the 1st Benchmarking Body (along with former head of IMPACT and former Vice-President of Sinn Fein, Phil Flynn) which paid 6 of the 7 members €329,000 over two years (The Chairman Justice Quirke accepted nothing). Benchmarking gave over 15% rises in under 3 years but also tagged them to performance. 15% for increased productivity, not too bad one might think.

The Benchmarking process created Performance Verification Groups to judge whether staff groups deserved their pay rises. Liam Doran of the Irish Nurses Organistion (union) was on the Health PVG. The Justice PVG had John Clinton of the Prison Officers Association and Rosaleen Glackin of the Civil and Public Services Union (CPSU - passport dispute anyone?) on it. Is anyone even slightly surprised that Benchmarking failed to deliver the expected productivity?

Peter McCloone, while head of Impact was also Chairman of Fás (€24,000 p/a) and a director of the Labour Relations Commission (€14,000 pa/a). Joan Carmichael's was Ass Gen Secretary of ICTU, on the Equality Authority, the NESC and the National Competitiveness Council. She was also made a Rights Commissioner. She also served on the http://www.eesc.europa.eu/ (http://www.eesc.europa.eu/) with one Bill Attley who was nominated by Bertie Ahern. Also on the EESC is Sally Anne Kinehan of the ICTU, who was also on the Board of Fás, Equality Authority and the NESC. (Someone called Jim McCusker of the Northern Ireland Public Service Alliance was on the EESC as well.)

Who here has heard of the National College of Ireland (http://www.educationireland.ie/irish-colleges/other-state-aided-institutions/national-college-of-ireland.html) based in the IFSC? Bill Attley and Bertie Ahern have been awarded fellowships by the NCI. By coincidence Attley has been on the Board of the NCI along with other trade unionists such as Peter McCloone.

Des Geraghty was awarded an honorary doctorate in 2008 by the NCI. He has been Chairman for the Institute for the Development of Employee Assistance Services (IDEAS), on the RTE Authority, director of Poetry Ireland (http://www.poetryireland.ie/), the National Competitiveness Council and inevitably the Board of Fás.

My sources for the above are Shane Ross's Wasters and Google.

Forgive me if I fail to see anyone in the trade union movement leading us out of the mess we are in.





Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: ardal on December 01, 2010, 11:20:47 PM
Seriously though. As a nation could we heck  it (heck it= majority of people living a reasonable standard of life) alone? Or are we always going to be a bunch of beggars. Sometimes you just have to take your hat off to the sassenachs (excuse spelling)f
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on December 01, 2010, 11:38:25 PM
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on December 01, 2010, 07:06:33 PM
Quote from: pintsofguinness on December 01, 2010, 06:25:58 PM
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on December 01, 2010, 05:15:40 PM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on December 01, 2010, 05:10:23 PM
"I have rarely come across anything so blatantly opposed to the interests of the people. Comments by readers of Irish newspapers reflect the outrage, but a protest after the bail-out announcement counted only 50,000 participants.


I reckon a majority of Irish people want to march but won't march behing a Trade Union or a Sinn Fein banner. If the Trade Unions left their banners at home and the Shinners & co. stopped trying to storm the Dáil more people might turn up.
I reckon a majority of Irish people are still too wrapped up in themselves.

Fair enough but seems the majority are very much against the Trade Unions and an overwhealming majority are against Sinn Fein.

FFs! such an excuse. Get your FG banner out and March. This shit about Trade Unions and SF is a weak excuse.

If FG or even LB called a march you wouldn't see a SF banner in the crowds of people. FG and LB have had chance after chance to take out this Government andf they still have that chance but they are sitting in wait like vultures.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Croí na hÉireann on December 02, 2010, 12:30:43 AM
Quote from: Declan on December 01, 2010, 05:47:55 PM
QuoteI reckon a majority of Irish people want to march but won't march behing a Trade Union or a Sinn Fein banner

Excuses excsues - I marched on Saturday and am not a TU member  - I brought my own sign. If I can I'll be there on Saturday not marching behind an SF banner but marching to get rid off this govt and treacherous deal.

PS - There were nearer 100K there last week rather than the"official" figures.

Same as that but I didn't make my own sign, was that you with the "Down With This Sort Of Thing"?  :P

I was actually encouraged with the majorities reactance to Jack O'Connor's waffle, which was one of indifference. Problem is we're coming too late to the party.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on December 02, 2010, 12:36:48 AM
Quotewas that you with the "Down With This Sort Of Thing"?

Not that clever Croí.Simple Wanted Poster was what I had

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on December 02, 2010, 11:13:16 AM
Quote from: muppet on December 01, 2010, 11:16:34 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 30, 2010, 11:20:16 AM
1. Letter to Opposition
http://www.progressive-economy.ie/2010/11/unite-letter-to-opposition-parties.html


Unite is affiliated to the Irish Congress of Trade Unions.
Forgive me if I fail to see anyone in the trade union movement leading us out of the mess we are in.

I don't agree, muppet. Sure they need salary reductions. The Croke Park deal will go as the country goes through its internal devaluation. Everyone in ireland was overpaid. The house prices were a joke.  Yes yes yes .   But the unions are not the problem. The sovereign would be solvent without the banks.

With the banks the country is bankrupt. Unions didn't borrow hundreds of billions on the short term money markets or railroad the government (with false information and worse) into taking on a €440bn guarantee it had no hope of honouring. The unions didn't lend Anglo 3bn in a repo deal to make the numbers look good.

The banks are the problem and turning on the unions is what FF want everyone to do. The Irish elite has failed the people and the unions are being blamed. This is insane. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on December 02, 2010, 11:30:07 AM
Quote from: seafoid on December 02, 2010, 11:13:16 AM
Quote from: muppet on December 01, 2010, 11:16:34 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 30, 2010, 11:20:16 AM
1. Letter to Opposition
http://www.progressive-economy.ie/2010/11/unite-letter-to-opposition-parties.html


Unite is affiliated to the Irish Congress of Trade Unions.
Forgive me if I fail to see anyone in the trade union movement leading us out of the mess we are in.

I don't agree, muppet. Sure they need salary reductions. The Croke Park deal will go as the country goes through its internal devaluation. Everyone in ireland was overpaid. The house prices were a joke.  Yes yes yes .   But the unions are not the problem. The sovereign would be solvent without the banks.

With the banks the country is bankrupt. Unions didn't borrow hundreds of billions on the short term money markets or railroad the government (with false information and worse) into taking on a €440bn guarantee it had no hope of honouring. The unions didn't lend Anglo 3bn in a repo deal to make the numbers look good.

The banks are the problem and turning on the unions is what FF want everyone to do. The Irish elite has failed the people and the unions are being blamed. This is insane.

Seafoid, I'm not trying to say the Unions are responsible for the banks actions. Obviously they are not.

However beneath the surface the Quango charade is costing €13 Billion a year. A large amount of that money is
completely wasted and all of that money is taxpayer's money. The Boards of these Quangos are all political appointees and represent a who's who of Irish croneyism. The Irish trade union leadership prostituted themselves to this merry-go-round of favours and easy money.

I agree with all those who say the taxpayer should not pay for the banks, in other words the arrogant bluffer Lenihan should never have guaranteed the banks. Look back two years on this thread and I said the same thing. The union leadership were not part of that problem, but they will have to be part of the solution.

After the banks the biggest problem we have in this country is croneyism and as I demonstrated in the post last night, the current union leadership are up to their necks in it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on December 02, 2010, 11:35:25 AM
Quote from: seafoid on December 02, 2010, 11:13:16 AMThe banks are the problem and turning on the unions is what FF want everyone to do. The Irish elite has failed the people and the unions are being blamed. This is insane.

What's funny is how the unions and ff are turning on each other now after having been in bed together for the last 20yrs.  I have absolutely no time for unions or union leadership, they have behaved disgracefully for the most part and appear to me to be self serving in most instances too.

They're all part of the cartel of vested interests that people were happy to allow control this country, mianly because very few people had any vision beyond the next 12 months, or at best 5 years being the next election.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on December 02, 2010, 11:40:51 AM
Quote from: Bogball XV on December 02, 2010, 11:35:25 AM
Quote from: seafoid on December 02, 2010, 11:13:16 AMThe banks are the problem and turning on the unions is what FF want everyone to do. The Irish elite has failed the people and the unions are being blamed. This is insane.

What's funny is how the unions and ff are turning on each other now after having been in bed together for the last 20yrs.  I have absolutely no time for unions or union leadership, they have behaved disgracefully for the most part and appear to me to be self serving in most instances too.

They're all part of the cartel of vested interests that people were happy to allow control this country, mianly because very few people had any vision beyond the next 12 months, or at best 5 years being the next election.

December 1st, 2010 at 10:12 pm
@ All
"sheltered" sectors? welfare rates, taxes on the rich, nurses pensions. Blah Blah blah.

Is this an Irish thing - the central EZ countries are in the process of extracting 60% of our GDP out of our country- and we're not doing anything about it? Rather we focus on how our neighbour might be paid slightly more than us.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on December 02, 2010, 11:44:24 AM
Also from irish economy

29.   remnant Says:
December 1st, 2010 at 10:06 pm

"The strongly held belief among our European partners is that any move to impose burden sharing on this group of investors would have the potential to create a huge wave of further negative market sentiment towards the eurozone and its banks system. That apprehension was confirmed by Professor Honohan in an interview last Monday when he said there was no enthusiasm in Europe for this course of action."

Of course, there's no enthusaism -that's the typical naieve europhilic "group think" within Irish politics/overnment/academia who have never played in the real geopolitical sphere-they would rather that the four million of us foot the bill for what is, essentially and by your admission, a "public" good for the 320,000 million residents of the Eurozone. And remember - that "public good" is costing us 20,000 per head but spread accross the EZ would total a mere 200 euro per citizen.
What we have here is the concept of Mutually Assured Destruction - where Ireland and the "EU" have options to threaten each other but where a zone of mutual benefit exists and should form the grounds for agreement.
In return for us using 50% our GDP to keep the holders of "Total Debt Certificates (including bonds)" in Eurozone Banks in faraway countrues- currently totaling 6,462.8 Billion euro- comfy and happy- we get what? An interest rate "subsidy" worth 3 Billion per year (which we wouldn't have needed if it wasn't for the guarantee in the first place).
The last time I checked, the Irish bank bailout was going to cost Irish taxpayers 2/3 of the cost of the AIG bailout and that was not foisted on just 4 million taxpayers of, say, South Carolina.
"There is simply no way that this country, whose banks are so dependent on international investors, can unilaterally renege on senior bondholders against the wishes of the ECB. Those who think we could do so are living in fantasy land."
Or how about this - there's no credibile way that the ECB can shut off liquidity to our banking system because to do so would create a significant risk of a eurozone bank run - beginning in the peripheral countries and destroying the EZ banking system.
All for a measly 250 euro per EZ citizen? Or printing a bit of money? Or a few weeks of criticism in Bilt. Sarko and Merkel are politicians - NOT insane.
The answer - renegotiate a way to either socialise the senior bondholders at the EZ level or else haircut. Better still, do it in concert with a few other players with similiar interests.  The "Europeans" won't be "enthuastic" about re-opening what was a superb deal for them but neither did the Soviets/Americans like dealing with each other!!!
Churchill said "courage was the most important political virtue because it guaranteed all of the others." This'll take guts but it needs to be done - particularly while some non-ECB people have major exposure to BOI/AIB.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on December 02, 2010, 11:49:55 AM
Quote from: seafoid on December 02, 2010, 11:40:51 AM
Quote from: Bogball XV on December 02, 2010, 11:35:25 AM
Quote from: seafoid on December 02, 2010, 11:13:16 AMThe banks are the problem and turning on the unions is what FF want everyone to do. The Irish elite has failed the people and the unions are being blamed. This is insane.

What's funny is how the unions and ff are turning on each other now after having been in bed together for the last 20yrs.  I have absolutely no time for unions or union leadership, they have behaved disgracefully for the most part and appear to me to be self serving in most instances too.

They're all part of the cartel of vested interests that people were happy to allow control this country, mianly because very few people had any vision beyond the next 12 months, or at best 5 years being the next election.

December 1st, 2010 at 10:12 pm
@ All
"sheltered" sectors? welfare rates, taxes on the rich, nurses pensions. Blah Blah blah.

Is this an Irish thing - the central EZ countries are in the process of extracting 60% of our GDP out of our country- and we're not doing anything about it? Rather we focus on how our neighbour might be paid slightly more than us.
i'm not worried about the bailout, because I think we've moved on past that, imo we will not have to pay banks money back, because we cannot pay that back.  They can talk shite all they want about negotiations etc and the ECB/EU can talk all they want about how the deal is in place etc etc, all in an effort to avoid contagion and shore up the euro.
In about a year or so they'll have no choice but to revisit the Irish problem and if the markets have calmed down (absolutely no guarantee on that btw), they'll restructure it the way they should have done.

Seriously, I haven't seen one independent economist who thinks that the current deal is a solution, it cannot be anything other than a stop gap.  As I said earlier, the simple fact is that we cannot make the repayments that Lenno has left us with via his guarantee.  We will default or restructure, or whatever you want to call it simply because it's the only course that can be followed.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on December 02, 2010, 01:09:05 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nD2Vr7lb-D4 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nD2Vr7lb-D4)

Class.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on December 02, 2010, 01:14:38 PM
I have now given up trying to understand what is going on . No bank left behind seems to be the order of the day yet there is some suggestion that the banks have been filtering cash released through US & UK QE to  hedge funds / their own investment wings to target the EU periphery and force the ECB/ EU into a similar policy. The banks will eat themselves and the rest us before they are finished. Reading Pestons latest piece the ECB seem to have been complicit in giving portugese banks funds at base which were subsequently used to mop up portugese bonds. Its all mad.



Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on December 02, 2010, 01:26:50 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on December 02, 2010, 11:49:55 AM
Quote from: seafoid on December 02, 2010, 11:40:51 AM
Quote from: Bogball XV on December 02, 2010, 11:35:25 AM
Quote from: seafoid on December 02, 2010, 11:13:16 AMThe banks are the problem and turning on the unions is what FF want everyone to do. The Irish elite has failed the people and the unions are being blamed. This is insane.

What's funny is how the unions and ff are turning on each other now after having been in bed together for the last 20yrs.  I have absolutely no time for unions or union leadership, they have behaved disgracefully for the most part and appear to me to be self serving in most instances too.

They're all part of the cartel of vested interests that people were happy to allow control this country, mianly because very few people had any vision beyond the next 12 months, or at best 5 years being the next election.

December 1st, 2010 at 10:12 pm
@ All
"sheltered" sectors? welfare rates, taxes on the rich, nurses pensions. Blah Blah blah.

Is this an Irish thing - the central EZ countries are in the process of extracting 60% of our GDP out of our country- and we're not doing anything about it? Rather we focus on how our neighbour might be paid slightly more than us.
i'm not worried about the bailout, because I think we've moved on past that, imo we will not have to pay banks money back, because we cannot pay that back.  They can talk shite all they want about negotiations etc and the ECB/EU can talk all they want about how the deal is in place etc etc, all in an effort to avoid contagion and shore up the euro.
In about a year or so they'll have no choice but to revisit the Irish problem and if the markets have calmed down (absolutely no guarantee on that btw), they'll restructure it the way they should have done.

Seriously, I haven't seen one independent economist who thinks that the current deal is a solution, it cannot be anything other than a stop gap.  As I said earlier, the simple fact is that we cannot make the repayments that Lenno has left us with via his guarantee.  We will default or restructure, or whatever you want to call it simply because it's the only course that can be followed.

Very Zen, bogball.

I agree on the restructuring. Has to happen. But the deal is a sickener because it shafts the taxpayer and once the 20bn is flushed down the toilet of AIB there won't be any chance of a return.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on December 02, 2010, 01:35:48 PM
http://www.eurointelligence.com/index.php?id=581&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=2973&tx_ttnews[backPid]=901&cHash=484db55c3a
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on December 02, 2010, 01:44:07 PM
Here is the IMF document:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/44490364/EU-IMF-memo#fullscreen:on (http://www.scribd.com/doc/44490364/EU-IMF-memo#fullscreen:on)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Maiden1 on December 02, 2010, 02:36:32 PM
So is FG, Labour, SF or anyone coming out and saying that we should reject this loan and planning to do anything different e.g.  Not pay the bondholders and only guarantee the deposits of people in the bank if/when they get into government.  If they aren't offering anything different and are just hoping that it is all done and dusted and FF take the rap then what is the difference between FF and the rest?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on December 02, 2010, 03:02:18 PM
Quote from: Maiden1 on December 02, 2010, 02:36:32 PM
So is FG, Labour, SF or anyone coming out and saying that we should reject this loan and planning to do anything different e.g.  Not pay the bondholders and only guarantee the deposits of people in the bank if/when they get into government.  If they aren't offering anything different and are just hoping that it is all done and dusted and FF take the rap then what is the difference between FF and the rest?

That is a bit like Roy Hodgson asking what would the pundits do any better. The answer is: it doesn't matter you are sacked.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on December 02, 2010, 03:16:11 PM
Quotewhat is the difference between FF and the rest?
We'd need a separate thread for that topic
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: armaghniac on December 02, 2010, 04:41:08 PM
QuoteSeriously, I haven't seen one independent economist who thinks that the current deal is a solution, it cannot be anything other than a stop gap.  As I said earlier, the simple fact is that we cannot make the repayments that Lenno has left us with via his guarantee.  We will default or restructure, or whatever you want to call it simply because it's the only course that can be followed.

This is so blindingly obvious that you have to wonder if this is not the plan. Give Ireland a 9 year loan at a high rate  while planning for a comprehensive Euro solution which means that we would never have to use most of this loan as currently constituted.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on December 03, 2010, 12:48:11 PM
Quote from: muppet on December 03, 2010, 12:20:08 PM

Probably only fined on his per diems.

It says a lot that many Irish are identifying with the eurosceptic British reps.

It doesn't say much. It says many Irish can agree with someone who makes a good point. There is nothing more to it. If he said Kilkenny are a good hurling side I'd have to agree there too.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on December 03, 2010, 01:13:09 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on December 03, 2010, 12:48:11 PM
Quote from: muppet on December 03, 2010, 12:20:08 PM

Probably only fined on his per diems.

It says a lot that many Irish are identifying with the eurosceptic British reps.

It doesn't say much. It says many Irish can agree with someone who makes a good point. There is nothing more to it. If he said Kilkenny are a good hurling side I'd have to agree there too.

I'm not having a go, I thought it was a good speech too. It is just that I would have run a mile from people like that a few years ago. Just shows how much the world has changed.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on December 03, 2010, 01:20:17 PM
Tried to post a link but didn't work so here is the story:
It is one thing to know that someone you love is terminally ill; their death still comes as a shock.



I certainly don't want to compare the arrival of the EU-IMF team in Dublin last week to a bereavement. But I was surprised at how upsetting I found it, given that it came as no surprise. It had been clear for a long time that the blanket guarantee given to the liabilities of Ireland's rotten banks, in September 2008, had saddled the State with a debt that was too big for it to handle. Ten successive quarters of declining real GNP, and one attempt too many to draw a line under the losses of our banks, made our exclusion from international capital markets inevitable. But to know something is one thing; to see it actually happen is something entirely different.

I am not alone in feeling this way, it seems. The economics editor of the Irish Times, Dan O'Brien, wrote that"nothing quite symbolised this State's loss of sovereignty than the press conference at which the ECB man spoke along with two IMF men and a European Commission official. It was held in the Government press centre beneath the Taoiseach's office. I am a xenophile and cosmopolitan by nature, but to see foreign technocrats take over the very heart of the apparatus of this State to tell the media how the State will be run into the foreseeable future caused a sickening feeling in the pit of my stomach.

This is not to say that we would be happy to have our country's affairs managed by the current, disgraced, government. I yield to no-one in my loathing of the men and women who have done this to my country. What has been the intellectual low-point of the last couple of years? Was it the cash-for-clunkers stimulus package (Ireland does not produce any cars)? Or the statement by our Finance Minister that Ireland need not fear a bank run, since Ireland is an island? Or the biggest Irish joke of them all, which underpinned the bank guarantee in the first place: that if we wanted investors to retain confidence in the creditworthiness of the Irish State, we needed to make sure that nobody who invested in our (private sector) banks ever lost a penny?"



The latter decision is the one that sank the country. It was the last great act of hubris of the Celtic Bubble, and was immediately denounced by one of the heroes of the crisis, my old UCD colleague Morgan Kelly.  On the night the guarantee was announced, Kelly pointed out that while it was the right policy if the Irish banks were facing a liquidity crisis, it was a terrible policy if they were insolvent, which was in fact the case. As they always do when confronted with someone smarter than them, the Dublin establishment circled the wagons, and Kelly was dismissed as an irresponsible young troublemaker of no consequence. He has been proved right, of course, but the establishment is still at it, making the

same fundamental mistake of thinking that a solvency crisis is just a liquidity crisis. Now, however, the establishment is European as well as Irish, and it is the State rather than the banking sector which is insolvent.



The week started on an optimistic note. The general reaction was one of relief – at last, the Indians had come to sort out the cowboys. (The Indian in question was Ajai Chopra, head of the IMF mission to Dublin; there are no prizes for guessing who were the cowboys.) But the atmosphere soon changed, as it became clear that a substantial portion of the bailout funds would be earmarked, not for vital public services, but for the black hole that is the Irish banking system. At one stage there seemed to be the prospect of some relief for Irish families: the Irish Times was reporting that the EU-IMF team would deliver the loss-sharing with bondholders that our own government had been too craven to insist on. This would have been a good-news story that could have transformed the mood of ordinary people, and proved that the European Union was on their side. That hope was dashed over the weekend.



The finger of blame was clearly pointed by the Minister of Finance, Brian Lenihan, and several of his colleagues: it was the European Central Bank and the Commission who had vetoed the proposal to force some of the bank losses back onto the bondholders. This interpretation is generally accepted in Dublin, although many observers also blame the Irish negotiating team for caving much too easily into pressure from Brussels and Frankfurt. The implication is that the IMF were the good guys: an unusual position for them to find themselves in, perhaps, and one with political implications in a country whose relationship with the European Union has been uneasy in recent years, and which has conserved close ties with the United States. On Monday night, an opposition spokesman made it clear that he would be much happier negotiating with the IMF, who are reasonable people, than with our European partners. The fallout from this will be toxic.



The reaction to the news that Irish taxpayers are to be squeezed while foreign bondholders escape scot-free has been one of outraged disbelief and anger. At the start of last week, it was possible to make the argument that 'burning the bondholders' was irresponsible, since it would inevitably lead to contagion, and the spread of the crisis to Iberia. That argument has at this stage lost all validity, since contagion has happened anyway. Besides, the correct response to the possibility of contagion was never to engage in make-believe, but to extend taxpayer protection to other Eurozone members as required. Swapping debt for equity in a coordinated fashion across Europe would show ordinary people that Europe is on their side; but like the PLO of old, the European Union never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity. It could have provided a means of kick-starting a new post-crisis growth strategy based on investment in the infrastructures we will need in the future; instead it has transformed itself into a mechanism for forcing pro-cyclical adjustment onto countries that are already sinking. It could have led the way in reining in an out-of-control financial sector; instead it now embodies the discredited principle that banks must never, ever, default on their creditors, no matter how insolvent they may be.



To make matters worse, it is simultaneously preparing a new scheme which will be able to handle sovereign defaults within the Eurozone from 2013 onwards. Presumably Ireland will be one of the first clients of this new facility, assuming of course that default can be avoided before then. To shrug one's shoulders and accept that sovereign default down the road is preferable to private sector defaults now seems astonishing, but such are the depths of irresponsibility to which responsible opinion is now sinking.



Who knows what the political consequences of all of this will be? The southern Irish are a conservative lot, and dislike direct confrontation (we leave that to our Northern brethren). This means that political change in normal times is slow; but when it does come, it may come in a rush. If we had a national list system, a Labour-Sinn Fein coalition would be a possibility at this stage. However, our multi-seat constituency system makes it difficult for rising parties to translate support in opinion polls into seats in parliament. Even so, we are about to have a general election, and if Brussels thinks that this deal is not going to be the big issue in that election, then they are even more out of touch than we already think they are. It is no longer even certain that the budget will be passed in December. Brussels may not have a Plan B, but they had better prepare one nonetheless.



Irish citizens may bring down the bailout of foreign bank creditors by voting at the ballot box, but if they do not, they will bring about a default of some kind by voting with their feet. We now face a negative spiral in which austerity causes emigration, which increases the burden of the debt, which ultimately leads to more austerity. We need a game-changer to break the cycle, but what might it be? Since the fundamental problem is that Ireland is insolvent, the smart thing to do is to tackle our debt burden head-on, but the Europeans have vetoed this.



Changing our politics might help, by creating a shared sense of national purpose that people can buy into. Unfortunately, it is hard to see the prospect of a Fine Gael-Labour government encouraging young people to tighten their belts and stay home for the good of the country: at this stage, the country needs radical change that can give people a sense of hope. There is a huge desire for such change, but no coherent vehicle to translate that desire into action.  One immediate focus should be constitutional reform that everyone can buy into, since people inevitably differ about the policies needed to bring about a recovery.

Iceland is an obvious model for us. In a referendum, her voters have already rejected a proposal to pay back their banks' creditors, who will take major losses. Now they have elected a constitutional assembly charged with drafting a new constitution. Ireland probably needs this more than does Iceland; I wish I were more confident that we will follow the latter's example.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on December 03, 2010, 01:22:00 PM
Quote from: muppet on December 03, 2010, 01:13:09 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on December 03, 2010, 12:48:11 PM
Quote from: muppet on December 03, 2010, 12:20:08 PM

Probably only fined on his per diems.

It says a lot that many Irish are identifying with the eurosceptic British reps.

It doesn't say much. It says many Irish can agree with someone who makes a good point. There is nothing more to it. If he said Kilkenny are a good hurling side I'd have to agree there too.

I'm not having a go, I thought it was a good speech too. It is just that I would have run a mile from people like that a few years ago. Just shows how much the world has changed.

i hope it's a trend for the Irish. We have a habbit of ruling out what someone says for reasons other than what they acttually say. It's narrow minded and easy to be taken advantage off to often.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on December 03, 2010, 01:25:47 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on December 03, 2010, 01:22:00 PM
Quote from: muppet on December 03, 2010, 01:13:09 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on December 03, 2010, 12:48:11 PM
Quote from: muppet on December 03, 2010, 12:20:08 PM

Probably only fined on his per diems.

It says a lot that many Irish are identifying with the eurosceptic British reps.

It doesn't say much. It says many Irish can agree with someone who makes a good point. There is nothing more to it. If he said Kilkenny are a good hurling side I'd have to agree there too.

I'm not having a go, I thought it was a good speech too. It is just that I would have run a mile from people like that a few years ago. Just shows how much the world has changed.

i hope it's a trend for the Irish. We have a habbit of ruling out what someone says for reasons other than what they acttually say. It's narrow minded and easy to be taken advantage off to often.

Even though I voted no to Lisbon I would have considered myself pro-Europe up until recently. The 'blended' 5.8% interest rate (which means the EU lent to us at a higher rate) has changed my mind completely. Our idiotic politicians got us shafted by the EU idiotic politicians.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on December 03, 2010, 01:26:49 PM
I see SF have cancelled the protest march in Dublin tomorrow
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on December 03, 2010, 01:32:33 PM

"Even though I voted no to Lisbon I would have considered myself pro-Europe up until recently. The 'blended' 5.8% interest rate (which means the EU lent to us at a higher rate) has changed my mind completely. Our idiotic politicians got us shafted by the EU idiotic politicians."

Agree totally, Muppet. The people have been blatantly shafted to save the banks.  I can't agree to that.

The really sad thing about this deal is that strangers on both sides of the Atlantic see this as the crucifixion that it is while in Ireland the people are told to shut up and accept it .

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/02/ireland-agonistes/
azlib AZ December 2nd, 2010
8:17 pm

What I just do not understand is how the bank bondholders get away with no losses. They should have taken a haircut in this deal. More importantly there should be total outrage over this and hopefully there will be.

http://blogs.ft.com/crookblog/2010/12/letter-from-dublin/
A Nassim | December 2 11:48pm | Permalink
I don't know why the fate of a bunch of too-big-to-fail banks that happen to operate in Ireland should be tied to the destiny of the country's citizens and tax-payers.
You either believe in the free market or not. If you do, there is a well-established way of dealing with defunct institutions. If the creditors of these banks don't like it, tough. Let them move to the Chinese model of doing business - over there.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on December 03, 2010, 01:33:26 PM
Quote from: muppet on December 03, 2010, 01:25:47 PM
Even though I voted no to Lisbon I would have considered myself pro-Europe up until recently. The 'blended' 5.8% interest rate (which means the EU lent to us at a higher rate) has changed my mind completely. Our idiotic politicians got us shafted by the EU idiotic politicians.

I still consider myself pro-Europe. It's an easy thing to attack you on if you complain once about it once.

I complain about ireland all the time but no one ever calls me Irish-skeptic.

Europe has/had such potential.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on December 03, 2010, 03:00:32 PM
Muppet ...I was pretty vexed about the 5.8% rate as well particularly if it was replacing the ECB overnight 1% money or ultimately covering German or French banks who could seemingly borrow at about half that rate. However as they havent shut down the overnight ECB money into Irish Banks ( which was 1.5 times the net bailout). So maybe we just need to see what unfolds. The blended rate including the ECB overnights is much lower ( maybe 2.6%) and maybe some of what was done was for the German electorate's benefit. There can be little doubt that it is all undemocratic and leading to more power within the EU and ECB. In the meantime the country does need to sort its own shit out . FF need to go and never come back but I cant say I think much of the alternative(s). FG moves to buy votes by maintaining pensions and restating the minimum wage just smacks of FF lite to me. The rest havent a clue imo. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on December 03, 2010, 03:11:46 PM
http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2010/12/02/the-imfeu-bailout-deal-%E2%80%93-%E2%80%9Cthis-way-to-the-gas-ladies-and-gentlemen%E2%80%9D/ (http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2010/12/02/the-imfeu-bailout-deal-%E2%80%93-%E2%80%9Cthis-way-to-the-gas-ladies-and-gentlemen%E2%80%9D/)

Long but worthwhile article
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on December 03, 2010, 10:41:37 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on December 03, 2010, 03:00:32 PM
Muppet ...I was pretty vexed about the 5.8% rate as well particularly if it was replacing the ECB overnight 1% money or ultimately covering German or French banks who could seemingly borrow at about half that rate. However as they havent shut down the overnight ECB money into Irish Banks ( which was 1.5 times the net bailout). So maybe we just need to see what unfolds. The blended rate including the ECB overnights is much lower ( maybe 2.6%) and maybe some of what was done was for the German electorate's benefit. There can be little doubt that it is all undemocratic and leading to more power within the EU and ECB. In the meantime the country does need to sort its own shit out . FF need to go and never come back but I cant say I think much of the alternative(s). FG moves to buy votes by maintaining pensions and restating the minimum wage just smacks of FF lite to me. The rest havent a clue imo.

Yeah give it a chance.  Personally, I'm not displeased with the IMF's plan thusfar (with the caveat being that I believe we will rid ourselves of the banks debts at some stage over the next year or two).  I like the structure, I like that somebody from outside will be examining the numbers, maybe even someone who understands them.  I like that they have experience garnered all over the world of how tax and spending works in other countries.

Regarding the EU/ECB, I think we have to be grateful to the EU for the changes in legislation that make it more difficult for Irish employers to take advantage of their employees as they have done up until the last 10-15 yrs.  We should acknowledge the improvements in basic working and human rights that have come about since we have allowed Brussels to dictate what these should be.  How many rights would workers have, would women in the workplace have if FF/FG and their cronies in big business had been setting the agendas?  For them, the bottom line would have been all that mattered.

I heard some of the guff spouted by FG and Labour today and it was as unimpressive and uninspiring as I have come to expect, there were a few half decent ideas in there, but really, I think the troika of ECB/IMF/EU are preferable.

There are probably some things I would prefer to see an Irish govt make decisions on, but I can't think of them off hand.  If we look at our European neighbours, they may not have as high a standard of living as us, but they have a much higher quality of life.  Boston or Berlin? Maybe it's time to change the question?  Dublin or Berlin?  And for me, the answer is Berlin.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on December 04, 2010, 12:05:40 AM
QuoteI think the troika of ECB/IMF/EU are preferable

Its a sad state of affairs but for time being Id agree. The only decent fresh proposal I have heard  was SF's phone mast tax. That's a no brainer imo.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: armaghniac on December 04, 2010, 12:25:25 AM
QuoteThe only decent fresh proposal I have heard  was SF's phone mast tax. That's a no brainer imo.

A no brainer for luddites.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Fear ón Srath Bán on December 04, 2010, 12:37:28 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on December 04, 2010, 12:25:25 AM
QuoteThe only decent fresh proposal I have heard  was SF's phone mast tax. That's a no brainer imo.

A no brainer for luddites.

Luddites. Or those that have had their brains fried by untaxed (but obscenely profitable) surreptitious microwave radiation.


:D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: armaghniac on December 04, 2010, 01:23:57 AM
Quote
Luddites. Or those that have had their brains fried by untaxed (but obscenely profitable) surreptitious microwave radiation
.

The mast broadcasts to the phone and the phone broadcasts to the mast. It seems to me that the one held up to your ear is more likely to do harm and the fewer masts there are the more powerfully the phone has to transmit. So in areas with few masts, like South Armagh for instance, a whole generation of teenagers are having their brains fried because their luddite "leaders" are campaigning against masts.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Main Street on December 04, 2010, 12:01:26 PM
Now post defeatism has set in.
Post defeatism is the era after 2 years of abject shapes of surrender  by Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, the surrender  of the national resources to a financial elite. Post defeatism is the era when the people look at the good cop IMF/bad cop EU bailout of EU banks and say it could have been worse - survivalist mentality- Irish people are very good at that. 'Ah sure look at how well we did in the EU' even after being ridden rock solid for 2 years and have the country mortgaged passed the point of penury. 'Ah sure at least the EU have a plan',   sure they do  ::)

In the early 80's they came up with the plan to increase production but freeze and reduce real wages.
So how to make that work?   How can people spend more?  Overproduction led to the small crash of 1987. Then came the beginning of the Greenspan plan - lower the interest rates - create debt to create demand.
And we all know where that eventually led.

Now we get to the EU plan of recovery. The banks /investor/risk taker are sacred in the plan.  Never mind that all over the world we have seen examples of failed banks where deposits are guaranteed and the rest of the Bank assets distributed to pay off the claimants.  The EU does not consider that, they hold the lender as sacred and not only that, the people must compensate the lender for the failure/collapsing of any part of his loan.
Not starting from a good spot are we. The old much maligned money lenders just use to bend a few thumbs, break a leg of the borrower, the EU come in and demand that the family and wider family pay up.

Then we have a plan of recovery for the people to pay off this new burden. That burden is composed of the lost market value of assets in Ireland. That market value was fantasy, yet real Euro money was printed to cover it.
Instead of burning 40% -  70% of the  bonds  that the fantasy Euro money was based on,  or devalue the Euro,  Instead of that, the EU have ensured that the Irish people sacrifice real value to compensate lenders for the loss in their fantasy assets values.
What's the great plan that the EU have to make this work?  regressive taxation - slash public spending, invent new charges.
Where is the plan?  The public's purchasing capacity will diminish and demand will drop further. 
In the 1930's the people faced similar hardships but they did not have the levels of personal debt, consumer debt is so high now and the public has used up all its collateral.
Freeing the credit markets won't end the recession. We are now in a economy  which is only starting to unravel the levels of personal debt and have also decided to increase the sovereign debt by 1000%  at the same time. 
There is no plan for recovery. The EU have a plan to recover as much as they can and that includes  wipe out cash reserves and strip the remaining value of public owned assets.


Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on December 04, 2010, 02:06:34 PM
Quote from: Main Street on December 04, 2010, 12:01:26 PM
Now post defeatism has set in.
Post defeatism is the era after 2 years of abject shapes of surrender  by Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, the surrender  of the national resources to a financial elite.

Cop yourself on, when over the last 2 years has Fine Gael been in power. Unless you want to add Labour, Sinn Fein, the Greens, the Independents, the rest of the left and right wings, the Trade Unions, IBEC, the Banks, the Regulators, all State Institutions, the Religious and the entire Irish nation into that list.

The ones to blame are Fianna FAIL, the buck stops there, their Green sidekicks are less than nothing.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Rossfan on December 04, 2010, 03:49:25 PM
FG came out with a re hashed version of FF's ( IMF's??) Budget plan yesterday.
That'll change things alright  ::)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on December 04, 2010, 04:33:57 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on December 04, 2010, 03:49:25 PM
FG came out with a re hashed version of FF's ( IMF's??) Budget plan yesterday.
That'll change things alright  ::)

I take it you want FF to remain in power then?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on December 04, 2010, 04:35:05 PM
Main St you make your argument well and might be right. I cant figure out if the whole thing is being run by evil geniuses or is just running amok under incompetent idiots.

On the phone masts thing ..anyone know if local authorities are collecting rates on these. They are effectively commercial premises ? The rateable value would be rent payable on them ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Rossfan on December 04, 2010, 07:22:03 PM
Quote from: muppet on December 04, 2010, 04:33:57 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on December 04, 2010, 03:49:25 PM
FG came out with a re hashed version of FF's ( IMF's??) Budget plan yesterday.
That'll change things alright  ::)

I take it you want FF to remain in power then?

No I effin well do not  >:(
But I want to see change and I don't see any with FG (now being called FFLite) after that unimainitive IBEC/FF document they produced yesterday.
Then again I spose they won't be getting into power on their own so both their and Gilmore's document are only works of fantasy anyway as they'll have to put together something when they go into Govt together.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on December 04, 2010, 08:00:32 PM


http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/dec/03/angela-merkel-germany-abandon-euro
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on December 04, 2010, 09:08:31 PM
http://labour.ie/press/listing/12914741491263701.html (http://labour.ie/press/listing/12914741491263701.html)

The Labour Party Spokesperson on Justice, Deputy Pat Rabbitte, has said that comments made by the Leader of the Green Party, John Gormley, in an interview on RTE with Marian Finnucane today suggested that the public had not been told the full truth about the circumstances surrounding the introduction of the blanket bank guarantee in September 2008.

In the version we have been given by the government to date the Taoiseach and the Minister for Finance were approached on the evening of Monday, September 29th by the Chairmen and Chief Executives of the two main banks with dire warnings of what would happen when the banks opened in the morning. According to this version the two Brians had little time to consider the matter, that they were placed under great pressure, decided late that night to introduce the guarantee and sought the approval of other Ministers through an 'incorporeal' meeting of the Cabinet.

"However, according the version of events given by Mr. Gormley in his interview this morning, there had been a meeting of the cabinet the previous day (Sunday) at which it was agreed to introduce the guarantee, with the Taoiseach and the Minister for Finance being given the go-ahead to tie up some of the details.

"This is the first time I have heard any reference to a Sunday cabinet meeting or that the government had given its approval for a guarantee on that date. If Mr. Gormley's account is accurate then the public and the Dail have been seriously misled. If the account is accurate it also means that far from being pushed into making the guarantee, the government made a calm and calculated decision to tie the country's interests to that of the banks

"There is a now a fair deal of consensus that the introduction of the guarantee was a disaster that set in motion a chain of events that has led to the EU and the IMF dictating our economic destiny for years to come.

"The public is entitled to know the full truth on what went on.".
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on December 04, 2010, 09:44:46 PM
Main St is right. The taxpayer is being broken to pay off the bondholders. The media are a disgrace. 
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/1204/breaking7.html
The deficit, projected to amount to €50.3 billion this year, is expected to fall to €20 billion – or 12.2 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2011.


Sure it is. With 35 bn fliushed down the banking toilet in 2011, 20bn of that nurses and others' pensions, the deficit will be far higher than 12.2%.


Ireland is in a debt deflation cycle. In 2 years' time after another 2 years of austerity the budget deficit won't have  improved.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on December 05, 2010, 10:56:40 AM
Isn't it amazing how Gormley's statement on Saturday has disappered into the ether!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: sammymaguire on December 05, 2010, 11:22:51 AM
Nice that the Germans are pushing the issue so that this whole mess can make them a richer and stronger nation and the two Brian's are doing a great job standing up to them and protecting their own people
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Tyrones own on December 05, 2010, 03:28:51 PM
Interesting read from a newsletter I subscribe to;

Ten Little Indians

There is the childhood story and song about the ten little Indians. And of course the Agatha Christie tale of the same name, with 10 people invited to an isolated place, only to find that an unseen person is killing them one by one. And that seems to be what the markets want to do with European sovereign debt. First it was Greece, then it was Ireland. Very soon it will be Portugal, then Spain, and even Italy? Belgium perhaps? How many more Indians till it hits the core of Europe?

My friend Dennis Gartman wrote a very humorous note yesterday about the following conversation between two Irishmen, Liam and Paddy, sitting in their local pub. The current Irish government has agreed to borrow something like $88 billion euros to shore up their banking crisis. That is about $27,000 for every man, woman, and baby in Ireland, a rather small country with a little over 4 million people.

"Aye, Paddy, now that it's all done, lad, we Irishmen owe the IMF; we owe the countries of the European Union; we owe those damned Englishmen; we owe the Danes; we owe the Swedes for God's sake! Oh, and we owe the banks, and we owe ourselves. Aye, lad; we owe the whole bloody world it seems."

That they do. And a lot of that Irish debt is owed to German, French, and UK banks. A lot more debt owed to banks than the Greeks owe, which had everyone worried not so long ago. See the graph below. (For those who are seeing this in black and white, the top section is Spain, then Portugal, Ireland, and Greece. Irish and Spanish debt dwarfs Greek debt.

(http://www.investorsinsight.com/cfs-filesystemfile.ashx/__key/CommunityServer.Blogs.Components.WeblogFiles/thoughts_5F00_from_5F00_the_5F00_frontline/image001_5F00_0C20BFBE.gif)

And that chart is what is really going on in Europe. It is not about Germany and France wanting to help out Ireland and Greece (and eventually Portugal and Spain). They are not that benevolent. It is that they are worried about their banks going belly up.

Look at how upset the UK got when Iceland decided not to back their banks. Never mind that the bank debt was 12 times Iceland's national GDP. Never mind that there was no way in hell that the 300,000 people of Iceland could ever pay that much money back in multiples lifetimes. The Icelanders did the sensible thing: they just said no.

Yet Ireland has decided to try and save its banks by taking on massive public debt. The current government is willing to go down to a very resounding defeat in the near future because it thinks this is so important. And it is not clear that, with a slim majority of one vote, it will be able to hold its coalition together to do so. This is what the Bank Credit Analyst sent out this morning:

"The different adjustment paths of Ireland and Iceland are classic examples of devaluation versus deflation.

"Iceland and Ireland experienced similar economic illnesses prior to their respective crises: Both economies had too much private-sector debt and the banking system was massively overleveraged. Iceland's total external debt reached close to 1000% of its GDP in 2008. By the end of the year, Iceland's entire banking system was crushed and the stock market dropped by more than 95% from its 2007 highs. Since then, Iceland has followed the classic adjustment path of a debt crisis-stricken economy: The krona was devalued by more than 60% against the euro and the government was forced to implement draconian austerity programs.

"In Ireland, the boom in real estate prices triggered a massive borrowing binge, driving total private non-financial sector debt to almost 200% of GDP, among the highest in the euro area economy. In stark contrast to the Icelandic situation, however, the Irish economy has become stuck in a debt-deflation spiral. The government has lost all other options but to accept the €85 billion bailout package from the EU and the IMF. The big problem for Ireland is that fiscal austerity without a large currency devaluation is like committing economic suicide - without a cheapened currency to re-create nominal growth, fiscal austerity can only serve to crush aggregate demand and precipitate an economic downward spiral. The sad reality is that unlike Iceland, Ireland does not have the option of devaluing its own currency, implying that further harsh economic adjustment is likely."

This is what it looks like in the charts. Notice that Iceland is seeing its nominal GDP rise while Ireland is still in freefall, even after doing the "right thing" by taking on their bank debt.

(http://www.investorsinsight.com/cfs-filesystemfile.ashx/__key/CommunityServer.Blogs.Components.WeblogFiles/thoughts_5F00_from_5F00_the_5F00_frontline/image002_5F00_42FDA4B5.gif)
Whither Portugal?

Portugal is one of those countries that is on my short-list of places I want to get to. Maybe I have romanticized it in my mind, but I have a wonderful picture of vineyards and mountains and ocean and sleepy little villages. But the country also has a rather staggering amount of debt.

As my friend and co-author of my new book, Jonathan Tepper, wrote last week in Variant Perception, Portugal is seeing all sorts of its economic dynamics go into reverse, except:

"The only thing that is not likely to move in reverse is debt levels. There are two main reasons for this. First, the measures the government are adopting to reduce the fiscal deficit will likely result in a deflationary dynamic, boosting the debt-to-GDP ratio.

(http://www.investorsinsight.com/cfs-filesystemfile.ashx/__key/CommunityServer.Blogs.Components.WeblogFiles/thoughts_5F00_from_5F00_the_5F00_frontline/image003_5F00_1DFFE43C.gif)

"Second is Portugal's strong reliance on international investors to fund its debt. 80% of Portugal's public debt is held by foreigners (Portugal is very similar to Ireland in this respect), and its total external debt position amounts to 90% of its GDP. The deflationary correction elicited by the austerity measures will in itself be a reason for outside investors to stay away from Portuguese debt.

"This will continue to be a source of vulnerability because it leaves the country exposed to the continuing risk of having financial markets shutter to its debt. Portugal's government debt, at 82% of GDP, currently sits at less than that of Greece (126%) and Ireland (almost 100%). Yet adding in corporate and private debt, Portugal's debt-to-GDP ratio rises to over 250%. Foreign investors are unlikely to tolerate such situations for much longer. It thus likely Portugal will have to apply for an EU/IMF bailout in a matter of weeks rather than months."

Portugal needs to raise €51 billion to cover its fiscal deficits (€24 billion) and roll over its debt that is coming due (€27 billion). It is highly unlikely that foreign markets will be so kind as to lend the money, and the Portuguese economy is too small to finance that internally. It is a matter of sooner rather than later before Portugal is forced to accept the kindness of strangers.

But then that brings up the problem of Spain. Earlier this year I documented the difficult and mounting problems that are Spain. 20% unemployment. Large fiscal deficits. An external debt situation that is worse than Portugal's.

Yet Spain must figure out how to get €635 billion over the next few years to finance its deficits and bond repayments, which it hopes to roll over into brand new bonds. David Rosenberg wrote a few days ago:

"What is remarkable is that since the Greek bailout was unveiled back in May, instead of alleviating fiscal concerns in the Eurozone periphery, contagion risks have actually intensified. Even with German 10-year bond yields declining 25bps, they have risen nearly 70bps in Italy, 150bps in Spain, 225bps in Portugal, 420bps in Greece and 460bps in Ireland. Once the stabilization fund ends in 2013, there is no way these countries can fund themselves at current debt-service cost levels.

"Ireland may have secured funding, but at a 5.8% interest with nominal GDP declining, the situation is untenable in terms of sustaining any balance sheet improvement. Debt restructuring is inevitable. Looking at current CDS spreads, we are up to around 80% on default risks in Greece, 60% in Ireland, over 50% in Portugal, nearly 40% in Spain (this is big), nearly 30% in Italy and 20% in Belgium. No wonder the VIX is breaking out.

"The risk is one of financial contagion to be sure, but there is the added macro risk as U.S. exports to the EU account for over 20% of the total volume of shipments sent abroad — about double the relative importance of the B.R.I.C.s in relation to U.S. producers. Plus, there is the added deflationary thrust from the strengthening U.S. dollar, which will come home to roost in that large share of corporate earnings derived from foreign sources."

(http://www.investorsinsight.com/cfs-filesystemfile.ashx/__key/CommunityServer.Blogs.Components.WeblogFiles/thoughts_5F00_from_5F00_the_5F00_frontline/image004_5F00_2278F5B4.gif)

The US stock market gave a resounding sigh of relief this week when the Irish bailout was announced. This surely solved the problem, right? Right: Let's solve the debt problem by making them take on more debt. Oh, that the world could be that easy.

"How did you go bankrupt?
Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly."

- Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises
Why Ireland is Like Texas

Let me quickly claim a point of personal privilege here and go into a little personal history that will hopefully offer some insight into the problems facing Europe.

My grandfather was born in West Texas in 1859 (not a typo). His uncle (a Kelly and Irish) was a charter member of the Texas Rangers, which was formed around 1836. When the mayor of Waco telegraphed the Rangers in the 1870s that there was a riot in town and to please send the Rangers, he got a telegram back saying they would be there on the noon train. The mayor met the train and was dismayed to see that only one Ranger got off. When asked why he didn't have more men with him, the Ranger supposedly replied, "There's only one riot, isn't there?" That became the motto of the Rangers: "One riot, one Ranger." These were the toughest SOBs in a tough state. And the uncle was Irish to boot.

Texas started out as a republic and was independent for nine years. The treaty that made us a state allows us to either split into five states (wouldn't that change the balance in the Senate?) or to leave the union, at our choice.

I was once in a hotel bar (a shock, I know) somewhere in Africa and was asked where I was from. "Texas," I replied. "Interesting," came back the response; "Whenever I meet someone from America they always say they are from the US or America. Except when they are from Texas. Then they are always from Texas." Yep. Texas is a state of mind, and those who come here eventually adopt the state as their own. Just seems to happen.

Now, a thought game. What would happen if California and Illinois and New York came to Texas and said, "We think your taxes should double so that we can finance our debt, and please buy even more of our debt next year to pay for our unfunded pensions. Oh, and while you are doing that the Fed is going to print massive amounts of dollars (far, far more than they are now) and destroy the value of the dollar, so your Texas pensions will be worthless.

My guess is that my fellow Texans would look around and decide which Ranger to set on these guys, and make it clear that this was not the ride we had signed on for, and dust off that old treaty and work out an exit strategy.

Understand, in the runup to the recent election our sitting governor talked about secession. I was been in meetings with Very Serious Texas Politicians where secession was earnestly discussed 15 years ago - maybe over some whiskey, but with the conclusion that Texas might be better off without the crushing debt that was coming down the pike.

Do I think that could happen? No. The Fed will never choose hyperinflation, and I do not think you can find 60 Senators to decide that bailing out the states that let their own spending and taxes get out of control would be acceptable with their voters. Further, even though I am a very proud Texan, after 9/11 it was not the Texas flag that brought a tear to my eye, it was the Stars and Stripes. It would have to take a series of massively stupid decisions to bring Texas to the place where it would even remotely consider leaving the union.

Now consider, if I have some pride in being Texan, with less than 200 years of history, proud as it is, what is it like to be Greek or Irish or French or German or any of the European mix? What deep cultural roots must they have? Nearly every country at one point was on top of the heap, and all have rich heritages. There is history around every corner in Europe. Except a history of unity.

If you ask a European in that African bar where he is from, does he say Europe? No, he is from a country. (Unless he is Basque. Or Catalonian. Or Welsh.) One is not from Great Britain but from one of the divers components of the UK. And a large number of Scots want out. Could Belgium split apart? Possibly.

But essentially, what the eurozone is asking Germany (and the Dutch and the rest of "core" Europe) to do is bail out Greece and perhaps much of the rest of the periphery, and to assume massive deficits and rising taxes. Because for there to be enough money for the deficit nations to borrow cheaply, there must be an AAA rating and a 30% cash-to-loan deposit, as I understand it. Spain or Ireland may try and borrow their share of the bailout fund (such irony), but they do not get that AAA rating. For all intents and purposes, it is on the back of Germany and, to some extent, France.

Will German taxpayers go along with that? Will France?

Will the Germans still finance the Greeks in 2013 when they have not whittled down their deficit and the Greeks still want to retire at 50 on full pensions? Will the Irish decide that it is in their best interests to take on massive debt so that French and German and UK banks are paid back? Can the solution to a debt problem be more debt?

Will Texas singlehandedly bail out California so their prison guards can continue to make $100,000 a year? Tough questions.

Next Monday's Outside the Box will be from Dylan Grice, who choreographs a three-part dance in which those in authority first deny there is a problem, then say it is a minor problem and then, when it becomes a large problem, deny it was ever their fault. He lays bare a rich vein of recent history. Those who are denying that the euro is at risk are still in the first steps of that dance.

I have long been a euro skeptic. But that does not mean I am not in favor of the euro. The world is better off with the euro, I think. But for it to survive there must be a huge (as in trillions) stability fund created, and/or the ECB will have to print euros on a level that would make the Fed blush, simply to get the various national debt levels down to where the peripheral countries can actually pay them down.

Can that happen? Maybe. The euro never was an economic currency. It is a political currency, and for it to remain a currency or at some point in the future become an economic currency, it will take massive political resolve on the part of the members of the EU.

I wrote last year that there are only a few paths in front of us. The peripheral European countries can simply default - Greece did so just 20 years ago. Rates got up to 20% for them. Banks would take losses, but the ECB can be the backstop. And after a while people would forget and lend the Greeks money again.

Or some of the peripheral countries can leave and go back to their own currencies, taking the path to devaluation, like Iceland did. Or Germany can decide to go its own way after what will be a very volatile and controversial election in the future.

Or the ECB can print euros and buy out the debt on European banks' balance sheets. Or create a massively large stability fund and combine that with some haircuts for euro bond holders.

There are no good solutions, just very difficult ones. And not one that I see that is euro-bullish in the medium term.

Ten Little Indians. How many will remain in a few years? I wish them well. I really do.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on December 05, 2010, 03:37:39 PM
Very good article.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on December 05, 2010, 04:31:54 PM
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/there-is-no-safety-in-these-numbers-2448737.html (http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/there-is-no-safety-in-these-numbers-2448737.html)

There is no safety in these numbers
Default is inevitable and the 'rescue plan' has only succeeded in delaying it, writes Constantin Gurdgiev

Sunday December 05 2010
Last week's deal between the Irish Government and the ECB/EU/IMF troika -- the details of which continue to trickle down from the stratospheric heights of secretive bureaucracies to the lowly taxpayers -- has been anything but a rescue for our battered economy.

Far from providing a resolution to Ireland's financial and fiscal crises, it made the restructuring of our banks' debt inevitable, no matter what the conditions underlying the deal says.

Instead of resolving the core problem of catastrophic losses within our banking sector and the related problem of the fiscal insolvency of our Exchequer, the ECB/EU/IMF loan created an internationally binding agreement that officially transferred the debts of our private banks onto the shoulders of Irish taxpayers. By doing so, the EU, with the complicity of the Irish Government, has delivered a full-blown contagion across the entire Irish economy.

The levels of our banking sector indebtedness are gargantuan. Carrying the Government and household debts amounting to some 225 per cent of the annual national economic output on the shoulders of ordinary income earners is a problematic proposition for a healthy economy. Doubling it to also cover the debt obligations of our banks is simply equivalent to economic suicide. Worse than that -- it is an act of subjugation of the ordinary taxpayers by their own Government.

Recognising that in addition to the catastrophically increased indebtedness of the real economy achieved by the ECB/EU/IMF deal, we have also experienced an unprecedented collapse of economic activity, which implies that the end game has not been changed by the latest loan agreement.

Default through the restructuring of Ireland's overall debts is inevitable.

The loan has simply delayed it, buying Europe some time before it has to face the ultimate crisis. The problem is, delaying things serves only to exacerbate the future fallout.

Insolvency is a condition that is determined by three factors -- the overall levels of debt, the cost of servicing this debt and the economy's capacity to repay interest and principal on the debt.

Before last week's loan was forced onto the Irish Government, our real economy -- households, non-banking financial intermediaries and non-financial corporations operating here -- were carrying the debts of €340bn. Add to this the Exchequer's outstanding debt and the total level of Irish economy's indebtedness and ex-banks, and the figure stood at €430bn. This was secured against the expected national income of about €130bn in 2010. In other words, the Irish economy has leveraged some 3.3 times its income.

Courtesy of the ECB/EU/IMF loan, our debt levels have risen overnight to €497bn. Factoring in future borrowings that will be required to underwrite the banks' bondholders, this figure can be expected to rise to €560bn in three to four years' time in constant euros. Nominally, the debt pile could reach over €593bn under benign inflation assumptions and before we factor in rolled-up interest.

Getting a new credit card can never solve the problem of an insolvent household. Ditto for an economy.

Assuming the Government projections for increasing the pool of Irish taxpayers materialise -- a tall order assumption in the society where already excessive tax burden is shifting more and more economic activities into cash-only grey markets -- by the end of 2014 total debt of the Exchequer and households will add up to €341,000 per taxpayer.

For a person on average earnings, this adds up to 10 times the current annual pre-tax income.

Let's consider the above numbers from another point of view. Using the 'subsidised' rate of interest attained under the loan deal, the total ex-banks' cost of interest repayments for the Irish economy in 2014 can be expected to be €34.6bn per annum, or more than one-quarter of our entire national income.

Now, imagine the thoughts running across the bond traders' desks when they attempt to calculate our solvency ratios.

In short, debt restructuring -- or in the more direct language of the street, a debt default -- is no longer just an option. Instead, courtesy of the ECB/EU/IMF loan and our own Government's failures to manage the banking and fiscal crises, it is simply unavoidable. Which brings us to the question as to what alternative do we have to minimise the damage to the real economy? At this moment in time we face a painful choice: either we choose a path of orderly restructuring of our banks' debts today, or we face a disorderly collapse of the banking and Exchequer finances two to three years down the road.

The first path requires abandoning the memorandum on the State's bank guarantee, signed with the troika, that commits the Irish State to ensure the continuation of bond repayments to Irish bank bondholders. This step is easy to take.

Within the ECB/EU/IMF team, it was the EU that insisted on underwriting bank bondholders, against the advice of the IMF. Even a simple glance at the numbers above would imply that should the EU continue to adhere to the same position, by 2012-2013 it will have to deal with the worst possible scenario -- an insolvent member state with insolvent banking and household sectors. The fallout from this for the EU would be far worse than some €60-90bn in the debt writedowns required to repair the Irish economy.

The next step -- after shredding the Irish Government commitment to the bank bondholders -- will be to rebuild the banking sector through a structured recapitalisation of the Bank of Ireland and AIB, by a combination of debt-for-equity swap -- setting current bondholders to equity holders in the banks -- the state purchase of shares in the banks at a heavily discounted price, and a restructuring of Irish bank debts to the ECB. Alongside these financial measures, the banks must be cleansed of their top management and reformed in areas of their long-term strategy and operations.

The state guarantee must remain only for the depositors and even this should be limited, after the reforms take place, to deposits under €200,000. A voluntary insurance scheme should be set up for all deposits in excess of that amount. It can be underwritten, in part, by the State in exchange for premium payments out of deposits. Anyone suggesting that a debt-for-equity swap would result in the Irish banking system collapsing altogether should go back to May this year, when the Bank of Ireland carried an €852m conversion of subordinated debt for equity, netting a capital gain of €233m in the process.

Restructuring bank debt today is the only alternative to a disorderly default in a few years' time. The latter outcome would imply -- following Argentina's and other recent scenarios -- a total stop to all functional banking operations in the country and a full restructuring of the sovereign and bank debts, carried out while the markets panic.

Terms and conditions of such a default, from the point of view of Irish households and companies, will be fully determined not by us, but by the international markets running for cover.

The real tragedy of last week's 'rescue' package for Ireland is that by forcing on to our shoulders the entire burden of banking sector debts, the troika has virtually assured the destruction of the very fabric of this economy that represents the only hope for our recovery.

The Irish economy is an economy with great potential for growth. Our entrepreneurs and exporters, our skilled workers and able and creative businesses can be a real engine of robust recovery, if only we can lift the unsustainable debt burden off our shoulders.

Constantin Gurdgiev is adjunct lecturer in Finance with Trinity College, Dublin
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on December 05, 2010, 05:15:39 PM
Those two articles only confirm what every right thinking person knows about the bailout - We have been sold into bondage and rape by those who were elected to look after our interests. How anyone in their right mind can think that the econmoy will grow or we can even attempt to repay the bank debt is beyond me.
I have read numerous articles from different commentators all over the world and the common theme is that we simply cannot afford this and we will have to default/restructure etc - call it what you will.
I have not heard one cogent argument form the proponents of the deal how this willl help the situation other than blindly stating that they are confident etc.
It is of the utmost imperative for the future of the country that the budget is defeated and a new govt put in place that renegotiates the deal     
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on December 06, 2010, 01:10:58 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1206/lenihan-business.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1206/lenihan-business.html)

Lenihan bottom of FT rankings again

Brian Lenihan has been named as Europe's worst finance minister in a survey of economists by the Financial Times.

Brian Lenihan - 'Overwhelmed' by crisis, says FT

Brian Lenihan has been named as Europe's worst finance minister in a survey of economists by the Financial Times. He was ranked 19th in the survey for the second year in a row.
Germany's Wolfgang Schauble was named as Europe's top finance minister in the survey.
Poland's Jacek Rostowski came in second ahead of last year's winner, France's Christine Lagarde, in the survey of the finance ministers of the European Union's 19 biggest economies. Britain's George Osborne was sixth. Goerge Papaconstantinou of Greece came eighth.
Among other EU members that markets see as having shaky finances, Elena Salgado of Spain shared 17th place with Hungary's Gyorgy Matolcsy, one place ahead of Teixeira dos Santos of Portugal.
The FT's 'jury' of economists ranked the finance ministers on the basis of their political skills - for which Papaconstantinou got top marks - as well as economic performance and credibility in the markets.
Schauble scored well thanks to an expansionary fiscal policy as Germany suffered its worst postwar recession last year and his exit strategy this year as Europe's biggest economy has recovered strongly, the FT said. 'The strength of Germany's rebound was one of the big surprises of 2010,' the newspaper said.
Schauble, 68, was in large part responsible, while also crafting 'an exit strategy to bring public finances closer to balance,' it added.
Brian Lenihan was 'overwhelmed by the crisis in Ireland's banking system and the implosion of the country's economic growth,' the FT said.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on December 06, 2010, 02:41:29 PM
Quote from: muppet on December 06, 2010, 01:10:58 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1206/lenihan-business.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1206/lenihan-business.html)

Lenihan bottom of FT rankings again

Sure they were all lauding him 2 years ago - not us though, muppet.

QuoteIt is reported that many of Lenihan's European counterparts have informally consulted him about how such programmes are best introduced, on the margins of European finance ministers meetings in Brussels.

Despite this, Lenihan's actions remain unpopular in many quarters, mainly at home. His domestic critics come in two guises -- one group claim the Lenihan cuts disproportionately fall upon the most vulnerable groups in Irish society, while the other group says his budgetary cuts are only making the downturn worse by reducing overall demand in the economy.

But Lenihan, who is working a full schedule despite his pre-Christmas cancer diagnosis, is viewed entirely differently overseas and on the financial markets, where Ireland's economic destiny will ultimately be decided.

The 'Financial Times', 'The Economist' and several leading German newspapers have written warmly about Lenihan's record and that of the Government. The 'Financial Times' in particular has heaped praise not only on Lenihan's budgetary strategy, but also the National Asset Management Agency (NAMA).

THE 'Financial Times' has not only praised Lenihan and the Government, it has blasted other commentators who have compared Ireland with other indebted eurozone members. "Ireland is no Greece,'' the paper said at the end of March. "After almost two years of unrelieved misery during which Ireland had sometimes appeared, in local parlance, to have lost the run of itself, a battered and moth-eaten Celtic Tiger may be picking itself up,'' the paper said in the same article.

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/brian-lenihan-making-his-mark-2181239.html


The sooner they realise that ministers in general are puppets with little or no understanding of their briefs, the better for all.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Fear ón Srath Bán on December 06, 2010, 03:05:41 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on December 06, 2010, 02:41:29 PM
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/brian-lenihan-making-his-mark-2181239.html

Oh Sweet Jezuz:

As other European finance ministers, directly or indirectly, copy his handiwork, Lenihan can take some satisfaction from the fact that while he is not a prophet in his own land, he is something of a prophet in the land that matters at present -- the financial markets.

What a fecking rag.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on December 06, 2010, 03:25:57 PM
Quote from: Fear ón Srath Bán on December 06, 2010, 03:05:41 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on December 06, 2010, 02:41:29 PM
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/brian-lenihan-making-his-mark-2181239.html

Oh Sweet Jezuz:

As other European finance ministers, directly or indirectly, copy his handiwork, Lenihan can take some satisfaction from the fact that while he is not a prophet in his own land, he is something of a prophet in the land that matters at present -- the financial markets.

What a fecking rag.
it wasn't just them though and the indo is much better than its sister the sindo.  I remember the FT lauding him, but I can't find the articles now (they've maybe tried to erase all electronic records of same).
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: lynchbhoy on December 06, 2010, 03:34:46 PM
being honest , 12 mnths ago (maybe less) I thought he was starting to do a good job on the finance - obv too much wishful thinking on my own part.
Lenihan though was never the right guy for the finance portfolio. Finance minister usually gets promoted to Taoiseach and I think this is what FF were grooming lenihan for.
Dermot ahearn was the man most suited to finance at the time. would he have been any better. maybe. maybe not. Dont think he would have been any worse.

at this stage as a voter I want to default on the bank bailout aspect of all this.
fcuk the banks. I dont think we as a country are tied to the fecking banks but we are made think this way . the banking fiasco is whats bringing us down. Surely we can have an election/referendum/revolution to state that we as a people will not stand for this bank bulls**t.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: whiskeysteve on December 06, 2010, 03:41:23 PM
Seen a good article posted on politics.ie summing up the infamous runaway gravytrain at the top of the public sector...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/ireland-business-blog-with-lisa-ocarroll/2010/dec/06/ireland-public-sector-fat-cats

As well as the crazy salaries at the top (66 public servants get paid over 500,000), it puts the average wage at ESB as 70,000.

Some Irish v UK Salaries
UK: Prime minister David Cameron - £142,500.
Ireland: Taoiseach Brian Cowen - €228,446 (£193,250.01)
Who's on top? Ireland

UK: NHS chief executive David Nicolson - £255,000
Ireland: HSE chief executive Cathal Magee – salary of €322,000 (£272,390.43)
Who's on top? Ireland

Department of finance
UK: Treasury permanent secretary, Sir Nicholas Macpherson £175,000
Ireland: Department of finance's secretary general, Kevin Cardiff €228,446 (£193,250.01)
Who's on top? Ireland

An Post
UK: Royal Mail managing director Mark Middleton £154,999
Ireland: An Post chief executive Donal Connell €500,000 (£423,097.31)
Who's on top? Ireland

Top 10 earners in the Irish public sector (state and semi-state)

1. Head of ESB: €752,568
2. Head of Dublin Airport Authority: €568,100
3. Head of An Post: €500,000
4. Head of Coillte, the forestry commission €417,000
5. Head of Voluntary Health Insurance: €412,003
6. Head of Bord Gais: €394,000
7. Head of Bord na Mona (turf energy agency): €392,000
8. Head of RTE: (TV): €326,000
9. Head of CIE (transport): €252,416
10. Head of Health Services Executive: €335,913
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on December 06, 2010, 03:49:56 PM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on December 06, 2010, 03:41:23 PM
Seen a good article posted on politics.ie summing up the infamous runaway gravytrain at the top of the public sector...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/ireland-business-blog-with-lisa-ocarroll/2010/dec/06/ireland-public-sector-fat-cats

As well as the crazy salaries at the top (66 public servants get paid over 500,000), it puts the average wage at ESB as 70,000.

Some Irish v UK Salaries
UK: Prime minister David Cameron - £142,500.
Ireland: Taoiseach Brian Cowen - €228,446 (£193,250.01)
Who's on top? Ireland

UK: NHS chief executive David Nicolson - £255,000
Ireland: HSE chief executive Cathal Magee – salary of €322,000 (£272,390.43)
Who's on top? Ireland

Department of finance
UK: Treasury permanent secretary, Sir Nicholas Macpherson £175,000
Ireland: Department of finance's secretary general, Kevin Cardiff €228,446 (£193,250.01)
Who's on top? Ireland

An Post
UK: Royal Mail managing director Mark Middleton £154,999
Ireland: An Post chief executive Donal Connell €500,000 (£423,097.31)
Who's on top? Ireland

Top 10 earners in the Irish public sector (state and semi-state)

1. Head of ESB: €752,568
2. Head of Dublin Airport Authority: €568,100
3. Head of An Post: €500,000
4. Head of Coillte, the forestry commission €417,000
5. Head of Voluntary Health Insurance: €412,003
6. Head of Bord Gais: €394,000
7. Head of Bord na Mona (turf energy agency): €392,000
8. Head of RTE: (TV): €326,000
9. Head of CIE (transport): €252,416
10. Head of Health Services Executive: €335,913

Does that include pensions? I think the gap would be bigger if it did.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on December 06, 2010, 04:10:31 PM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on December 06, 2010, 03:41:23 PMSome Irish v UK Salaries
UK: Prime minister David Cameron - £142,500.
Ireland: Taoiseach Brian Cowen - €228,446 (£193,250.01)
Who's on top? Ireland

More to the point, that was a huge cut that biffo was handed.  Hardly worth staying in the job.

QuoteThe Taoiseach is set to receive a pay rise of €38,000 a year, which will bring his annual salary to €310,000.
http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/1025/politics.html
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on December 06, 2010, 04:17:47 PM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on December 06, 2010, 03:41:23 PMAs well as the crazy salaries at the top (66 public servants get paid over 500,000), it puts the average wage at ESB as 70,000.

UK: NHS chief executive David Nicolson - £255,000
Ireland: HSE chief executive Cathal Magee – salary of €322,000 (£272,390.43)
Who's on top? Ireland
Brendan Drumm the previous head of the HSE made 450K p.a (including bonus, indeed, by what metric is the bonus calculated - decreases in deaths, cost reductions, A&E waiting times???).

Average workers wage in the ESB last years was 75,500, I don't know though if that was a median wage.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Kerry Mike on December 06, 2010, 04:29:14 PM
Quote1. Head of ESB: €752,568
2. Head of Dublin Airport Authority: €568,100
3. Head of An Post: €500,000
4. Head of Coillte, the forestry commission €417,000
5. Head of Voluntary Health Insurance: €412,003
6. Head of Bord Gais: €394,000
7. Head of Bord na Mona (turf energy agency): €392,000
8. Head of RTE: (TV): €326,000
9. Head of CIE (transport): €252,416
10. Head of Health Services Executive: €335,913

Jaysus H. Christ on a f**king Motorbike, how in the name of f**k can the fellow in charge of a few bits of trees be paid more than something nationaklly important like the HSE for example, all of them are overpaid FFS but that takes the f**king Rich Tea
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on December 06, 2010, 04:35:25 PM
Quote from: Kerry Mike on December 06, 2010, 04:29:14 PMJaysus H. Christ on a f**king Motorbike, how in the name of f**k can the fellow in charge of a few bits of trees be paid more than something nationaklly important like the HSE for example, all of them are overpaid FFS but that takes the f**king Rich Tea
It's the state's most valuable asset Mike.

http://www.tribune.ie/news/article/2010/dec/05/aherns-international-forestry-body-could-own-7-of-/

QuoteAccording to Department of Finance accounts for last year, Coillte is the most valuable state asset, with a net value of over €1.2bn. This is not the worth of the trees but the value of the land on which they are planted.




Earlier this year, the Sunday Tribune revealed that Ahern was appointed chairperson of the International Forestry Fund.




Significantly, a spokesman for the fund confirmed to this newspaper some months ago that the fund would consider an acquisition of Coillte.




A spokeswoman for Ahern said this weekend that "as he understands it, the International Forestry Fund has no intention of putting in a bid for Coillte".
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on December 06, 2010, 04:44:21 PM
Merkel playing hardball - it's still the only viable solution imo.


QuoteEuro zone finance ministers meeting today face IMF pressure to increase the size of a €750 billion safety net for debt-stricken members to halt contagion in the single currency region.

But Germany today rejected any such move and also dismissed a call by two veteran finance ministers for joint euro bonds guaranteed by the whole euro zone.
International Monetary Fund chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn will call on ministers to boost the rescue pool and urge the European Central Bank (ECB) to step up its purchases of bonds to stem the crisis, according to an IMF report obtained by Reuters.

However, German chancellor Angela Merkel said she saw no need to increase the size of the bailout mechanism.

She cited legal obstacles to the issuance of a joint sovereign bond, or "E-bond" - an idea that was refloated jointly today by the chairman of the Eurogroup of euro zone finance ministers and Italy's finance minister.

Instead, Mrs Merkel called on European governments to implement tougher budget rules to prevent countries living beyond their means, guarding against the fiscal indiscipline that Germany sees as being the root cause of the euro zone debt crisis.

"The treaty does not in our firm view allow any euro bonds, so no uniform interest rate," Mrs Merkel told a joint news conference with visiting Polish prime minister Donald Tusk.

Countries would have a greater incentive to comply with the EU's fiscal rules, enshrined in the Stability and Growth Pact, if they each had to pay interest on their own debt, she said.

"It is important that innovations to the Stability and Growth Pact are implemented as these guarantee that in the future we will not have a situation like we had in the past," Mrs Merkel added.

Europe needed the euro, she said, and Germany would do everything to ensure the single currency was strong and safe - comments echoed by government spokesman Christoph Steegmans.

The ECB engineered a dip in the soaring borrowing costs of weaker euro zone states late last week by stepping up purchases of Irish and Portuguese government bonds, according to traders, and hinting it could do more.

But yield spreads over safe-haven German Bunds resumed their rise today, as did the cost of insuring their debt against default, and many analysts say only sustained, massive central bank bond-buying can reverse the trend.

The IMF report says a recovery in the euro zone, led by strong growth in its largest economy Germany, could "easily be derailed" by renewed market turmoil and describes pressure on so-called peripheral euro countries as a "severe downside risk".

Wide differences remain in the 16-nation single currency area over how to overcome a debt crisis that has already led to EU-IMF bailouts for Greece and Ireland, and now threatens to spread to Portugal, Spain and possibly Italy.

The IMF report and the situation on European debt markets will be discussed at length, a euro zone source said, at the regular meeting of the so-called Eurogroup.

That will be followed by a meeting tomorrow of ministers from the broader 27-nation European Union, who are expected to formally approve an €85 billion aid package for Ireland and discuss the reform of EU budget rules.

Economist Jim O'Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, said the idea of common euro zone bonds made sense, and new ideas now emerging would eventually underpin European monetary union with stronger central leadership.

"If EMU is to thrive and to recover from this mess we're in, something like a common European bond as a symbol of a more truly coordinated and shared agenda by Europe's policymakers is not a bad idea," Mr O'Neill said.

He also said it was worth considering buying a basket of euro zone peripheral sovereign debt at current prices.

Ireland gained a small respite today when clearing house LCH Clearnet reduced the deposit it requires bond traders to pay on Irish sovereign bonds to 30 per cent of net positions from an emergency level of 45 per cent set on November 25th before the rescue.

But the 10-year bond yield rose 0.053 per cent to 8.199 per cent by 3.40pm.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on December 06, 2010, 06:26:50 PM
http://www.financialstandard.com.au/news/view/30897/ (http://www.financialstandard.com.au/news/view/30897/)

Hungary nationalises private pensions
Tuesday, 30 November 2010 12:20pm
The Hungarian government has effectively nationalised the private pensions of its citizens in an effort to plug holes in the country's finances.

Confirming savers and foreign investors worst fears, the national economy minister, György Matolcsy announced last week that the Government would force investors in private pension schemes into the public system.

Those that fail to do so by the end of January next year will no longer be able to claim the public pension upon retirement.

Hungarians are reluctant to hand their money over because of the widely held expectation that the government will use the funds for its own purposes and current expenditures.

Analysts see the move as a huge backward step for the country as it effectively shifts away from an almost fully funded system based on defined contributions, to an unfunded, defined benefit retirement scheme.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on December 06, 2010, 09:11:32 PM
Heard Varadkar on some of the radio stations this evening, he reckons that there is very little chance that a new administration will make any changes to the budget legislation to be announced tomorrow - claims that the acts will have been passed etc, so there's nothing that can be done.  I'm not cynical, but.....
As a legislator he mustn't know much about legislation, a new budget should be the first order of business of any new govt, but I suppose they'll be too worried about who gets what office and what type of car they'll be allotted etc.

The more I hear the less likely i am to vote in this election.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Expat on December 07, 2010, 06:02:44 AM
Perhaps RTE  should air the documentary " THE STORY OF OZ ".Pehaps then irish people would then realize the ramifacations of this bailout on not only this generation but on their childrens generation. Maiden1 quote will become perfectly clear to all, "Give me control over a nations currency, and I care not who makes its laws". Baron M.A. Rothschild.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on December 07, 2010, 10:41:24 AM
Quote from: Zapatista on December 06, 2010, 11:16:30 PMIt doesn't matter to FG what is in the budget. Lucinda Creighton has said she will abstain to pass it if need be. If it looks like it might fall (not likely) I wouldn't be surprised if more abstain. FG have already accepted the 4 year plan. They have accepted the target negotiated by FF. FG and FF would make basically the same cuts as the have accepted the same targets and would be doing it in line with the ECB/EU/IMF.

I'd be more pissed at Varadkar if he said he was going to reverse some cuts. Lowry and Healy Rae are playing this game which is disgusting but not unexpected. Varadkar would only end up cutting them further the following year to get back on target anyway.
As I said before, I don't believe we'll end up paying the bank debts, so I'm only talking about the sovereign debt and our fiscal deficit.  I agree that the deficit should be eradicated as quickly as possible, what I want to see is each party telling me how they're going to tackle the deficit and allow me to vote on that.  I think it's disingenious of a party to take power shortly after a draconian budget and say, nothing we can do about that, sorry.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on December 07, 2010, 01:03:40 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on December 07, 2010, 10:41:24 AM
Quote from: Zapatista on December 06, 2010, 11:16:30 PMIt doesn't matter to FG what is in the budget. Lucinda Creighton has said she will abstain to pass it if need be. If it looks like it might fall (not likely) I wouldn't be surprised if more abstain. FG have already accepted the 4 year plan. They have accepted the target negotiated by FF. FG and FF would make basically the same cuts as the have accepted the same targets and would be doing it in line with the ECB/EU/IMF.

I'd be more pissed at Varadkar if he said he was going to reverse some cuts. Lowry and Healy Rae are playing this game which is disgusting but not unexpected. Varadkar would only end up cutting them further the following year to get back on target anyway.
As I said before, I don't believe we'll end up paying the bank debts, so I'm only talking about the sovereign debt and our fiscal deficit.  I agree that the deficit should be eradicated as quickly as possible, what I want to see is each party telling me how they're going to tackle the deficit and allow me to vote on that. I think it's disingenious of a party to take power shortly after a draconian budget and say, nothing we can do about that, sorry.

This is the key. Labour suggesting €4.5 Billion in savings is not realistic. Even with €6 Billion most independent, not vested interest types, are predicting 'restructuring' which is an orderly default. The cuts have to come one way or another.

Anyone who commits to:

a) cutting most of the banks and their private debt free;
b) slaughtering most of the Qangos before touching any frontline PS jobs;
c) reversing any decisions to exacerbate the pensions time-bomb;

has my vote (unless it is FF).
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: whiskeysteve on December 07, 2010, 01:04:23 PM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-11937654

hmmm... have BOI finances taken a Kung Fu kick!?  8)

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/pan-european-bank-run-day-starts-bang-bank-ireland-atm-systems-fail
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: trileacman on December 07, 2010, 02:20:42 PM
For the day that is in it.

Could we possibly make this the national anthem of the new EU dominion of Anglo Ireland?


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54k-RmPcIDw
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: An Gaeilgoir on December 07, 2010, 02:27:42 PM
Quote from: muppet on December 07, 2010, 01:03:40 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on December 07, 2010, 10:41:24 AM
Quote from: Zapatista on December 06, 2010, 11:16:30 PMIt doesn't matter to FG what is in the budget. Lucinda Creighton has said she will abstain to pass it if need be. If it looks like it might fall (not likely) I wouldn't be surprised if more abstain. FG have already accepted the 4 year plan. They have accepted the target negotiated by FF. FG and FF would make basically the same cuts as the have accepted the same targets and would be doing it in line with the ECB/EU/IMF.

I'd be more pissed at Varadkar if he said he was going to reverse some cuts. Lowry and Healy Rae are playing this game which is disgusting but not unexpected. Varadkar would only end up cutting them further the following year to get back on target anyway.
As I said before, I don't believe we'll end up paying the bank debts, so I'm only talking about the sovereign debt and our fiscal deficit.  I agree that the deficit should be eradicated as quickly as possible, what I want to see is each party telling me how they're going to tackle the deficit and allow me to vote on that. I think it's disingenious of a party to take power shortly after a draconian budget and say, nothing we can do about that, sorry.

This is the key. Labour suggesting €4.5 Billion in savings is not realistic. Even with €6 Billion most independent, not vested interest types, are predicting 'restructuring' which is an orderly default. The cuts have to come one way or another.

Anyone who commits to:

a) cutting most of the banks and their private debt free;
b) slaughtering most of the Qangos before touching any frontline PS jobs;
c) reversing any decisions to exacerbate the pensions time-bomb;

has my vote (unless it is FF).

Ah muppet, How could you cut the Quangos? What would poor Paudie O Shea do, now that he got a new job for himself on another quango? ::)

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on December 07, 2010, 02:52:59 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on December 07, 2010, 02:19:20 PM
If there will be 'restructuring' then Labours proposal of 4.5bn is every bit as realistic as 6bn.
The growth prediction has been ruled out by independant commentators and by the EU in the 4 year plan, that's with the 6bn cut.
Labour's commitment to a 4 year term is their problem when the targets at the end of 4 years are the same as FF/FG/IMF/EU.

On point a) would doing that result on a run on the banks leaving a 'disorderly default'?
Also, how would an orderly default work? How long would it take and do you think that is another decision that has already been made? If so, why the drama of this budget and plan?

Zap there are two issues, the Debt and the Deficit.

The banks and any default/restructuring are part of the former problem and the adjustment is to deal with the latter. Labour's solution is too little, sadly.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Kerry Mike on December 07, 2010, 03:40:09 PM
QuoteIn the last few minutes, a flare was lit outside the Dáil by a group of Sinn Féin protestors objecting to the Government's Budget plan.

At the same time, another group of protestors were beating pots and pans in front of the gates of Leinster House.

I suppose it beats trying to storm the gates of government buildings, is this what Adams will bring to the table?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Banana Man on December 07, 2010, 04:01:25 PM
Quote from: Kerry Mike on December 07, 2010, 03:40:09 PM
QuoteIn the last few minutes, a flare was lit outside the Dáil by a group of Sinn Féin protestors objecting to the Government's Budget plan.

At the same time, another group of protestors were beating pots and pans in front of the gates of Leinster House.

I suppose it beats trying to storm the gates of government buildings, is this what Adams will bring to the table?

funny i must have missed Gerry storming the gates of the Dail  ::)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: trileacman on December 07, 2010, 04:39:35 PM
Jesus Christ is noonan really the man to hand over the reigns to? f**k me that quality of people in that chamber is truly truly depressing.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Joxer on December 07, 2010, 04:40:10 PM
Petrol up by 4c and Diesl by 2c from Midnight.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on December 07, 2010, 04:54:17 PM
Quote from: trileacman on December 07, 2010, 04:39:35 PM
Jesus Christ is noonan really the man to hand over the reigns to? f**k me that quality of people in that chamber is truly truly depressing.

FFS blame the opposition why don't you.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Donnellys Hollow on December 07, 2010, 05:14:05 PM
Michael Noonan could forge a career for himself as a stand-up comedian. He cut that clown Gogarty to ribbons!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: gallsman on December 07, 2010, 05:27:27 PM
Are these literally the only comments we have so far on the budget?

Some of this is hardly what I'd call "draconian". A jobseekers allowance of €196 a week reduced by €6?? My mates in the north on £56 will be crying them all a river.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on December 07, 2010, 05:48:37 PM
Tax bands and rates all reduced by 10% but the rate remains the same. This affects those just below the average industrial wage more than higher paid. Lowering social welfare and job seekers, increasing education fees etc will annoy the left parties and charities etc.

For the higher paid the cuts are more by stealth. Scrapping the PRSI ceiling is a 5% tax increase for private high earners however the levies change seem to compensate for some of this. The unspecified private pension changes will cost a lot of money and probably guarantee another financial crisis sometime in the future.

Salaries in the PS are to be capped at €250,000 but it doesn't say whether those currently earning more than that will be subject to this cap. I'd say almost certainly not.

To be honest as usual after the carefully managed build up, it all seems a tad underwhelming. Have they announced where the €4 Billion cuts (didn't they say 2:1 ratio cuts to tax?) are going to come from? Is it credible that they will achieve €6 Billion or even close? Are they not announcing some of the worst aspects to try avoid negative coverage?

The IMF/EU bailout plan is based on our economy growing. It is hard to see people, whether highly paid or otherwise, spending more next year than they spend this year.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on December 07, 2010, 07:33:37 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on December 07, 2010, 02:19:20 PM
Quote from: muppet on December 07, 2010, 01:03:40 PM

This is the key. Labour suggesting €4.5 Billion in savings is not realistic. Even with €6 Billion most independent, not vested interest types, are predicting 'restructuring' which is an orderly default. The cuts have to come one way or another.

Anyone who commits to:

a) cutting most of the banks and their private debt free;
b) slaughtering most of the Qangos before touching any frontline PS jobs;
c) reversing any decisions to exacerbate the pensions time-bomb;

has my vote (unless it is FF).

If there will be 'restructuring' then Labours proposal of 4.5bn is every bit as realistic as 6bn.
The growth prediction has been ruled out by independant commentators and by the EU in the 4 year plan, that's with the 6bn cut.
Labour's commitment to a 4 year term is their problem when the targets at the end of 4 years are the same as FF/FG/IMF/EU.

On point a) would doing that result on a run on the banks leaving a 'disorderly default'?
Also, how would an orderly default work? How long would it take and do you think that is another decision that has already been made? If so, why the drama of this budget and plan?

Didn't answer this properly.

If we cut all of the bank debt free it probably would mean a run on the banks, the Irish owned banks. There are other banks operating here though. Also realistically they would create a 'Good Bank' which would be of 'systemic' importance, to keep the economy going. This is probably what they should have done in the first place which would have helped cut our losses.

'How long would it take?'. Asking the wrong man, I would have no idea.

To be fair to your point on Labour's plan Burton pointed out today that this €6 Billion 'adjustment' means a total of €21 Billion has been taken out of the economy since 2008. That is an incredible figure with €9 Billion more to come in the next 3 budgets (assuming they got their numbers right which no one believes). Like I said we should cut our losses and hit at least part of the banking system.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on December 07, 2010, 07:41:02 PM
Apres match take on things:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1E5eg6cwo4U (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1E5eg6cwo4U)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hound on December 07, 2010, 08:18:50 PM
Quote from: gallsman on December 07, 2010, 05:27:27 PM
Are these literally the only comments we have so far on the budget?

Some of this is hardly what I'd call "draconian". A jobseekers allowance of €196 a week reduced by €6?? My mates in the north on £56 will be crying them all a river.
Yeah, all €6 will do will take €6 per person out of the economy.

They needed to cut it in half. It'd still be miles better than the UK, but would be more likely to get lads off their arse and take jobs they don't particularly want instead of sitting at home all day watching the telly or playing their playstations.

That's tongue-in-cheek, but I would drop the dole by 50% for anyone who's on the dole for more than 1 year. I bet you'd see a lot suddenly getting jobs in month 11. Need to incentivise people to work, instead of incentivising them to sponge.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on December 07, 2010, 09:22:00 PM
Quote from: Hound on December 07, 2010, 08:18:50 PM
Quote from: gallsman on December 07, 2010, 05:27:27 PM
Are these literally the only comments we have so far on the budget?

Some of this is hardly what I'd call "draconian". A jobseekers allowance of €196 a week reduced by €6?? My mates in the north on £56 will be crying them all a river.
Yeah, all €6 will do will take €6 per person out of the economy.

They needed to cut it in half. It'd still be miles better than the UK, but would be more likely to get lads off their arse and take jobs they don't particularly want instead of sitting at home all day watching the telly or playing their playstations.

That's tongue-in-cheek, but I would drop the dole by 50% for anyone who's on the dole for more than 1 year. I bet you'd see a lot suddenly getting jobs in month 11. Need to incentivise people to work, instead of incentivising them to sponge.

While I agree there is merit to the concept of your idea Hound, in the current job market that would only incentivise emigration on one end and an expanded black-market on the other.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: An Gaeilgoir on December 07, 2010, 09:51:54 PM
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on December 07, 2010, 09:22:00 PM
Quote from: Hound on December 07, 2010, 08:18:50 PM
Quote from: gallsman on December 07, 2010, 05:27:27 PM
Are these literally the only comments we have so far on the budget?

Some of this is hardly what I'd call "draconian". A jobseekers allowance of €196 a week reduced by €6?? My mates in the north on £56 will be crying them all a river.
Yeah, all €6 will do will take €6 per person out of the economy.

They needed to cut it in half. It'd still be miles better than the UK, but would be more likely to get lads off their arse and take jobs they don't particularly want instead of sitting at home all day watching the telly or playing their playstations.

That's tongue-in-cheek, but I would drop the dole by 50% for anyone who's on the dole for more than 1 year. I bet you'd see a lot suddenly getting jobs in month 11. Need to incentivise people to work, instead of incentivising them to sponge.

While I agree there is merit to the concept of your idea Hound, in the current job market that would only incentivise emigration on one end and an expanded black-market on the other.

From what i can the black market is alive and well. We have been trying to take on general operatives for a couple of jobs recently, we got one middle aged man who was sick of been at home. We were looking for 5 in total. One guy i know came for 2 days and decided that drawing the dole, doing a couple of nixers and two night's chinese deliveries was worth 850 euros a week in the hand. We are a long way from incentivises to go back to work.

Agreeing again with Muppet, this was all a bit of an anti- climax tgo be fair, our house will be down about 50 quid a week, the cost of living has come down and probably will come down further, so no big deal really.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Peter Solan the Great on December 07, 2010, 09:55:40 PM
A frank view of the collapse of the celtic tigers

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nk36cMgf028&feature=player_embedded
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: FermGael on December 07, 2010, 10:10:43 PM
Michael Noonan is wiping the floor with Brian Lenihan on Rte one.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Tubberman on December 07, 2010, 10:13:38 PM
Quote from: FermGael on December 07, 2010, 10:10:43 PM
Michael Noonan is wiping the floor with Brian Lenihan on Rte one.

Absolutely destroying him!
Being polite by calling him 'Minister' and 'Brian', and then completely demolishing him  :D
At least it looks like there is hope that Noonan could go to Europe and actually lead a proper negotiation team.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: An Gaeilgoir on December 07, 2010, 10:18:07 PM
Quote from: Tubberman on December 07, 2010, 10:13:38 PM
Quote from: FermGael on December 07, 2010, 10:10:43 PM
Michael Noonan is wiping the floor with Brian Lenihan on Rte one.

Absolutely destroying him!
Being polite by calling him 'Minister' and 'Brian', and then completely demolishing him  :D
At least it looks like there is hope that Noonan could go to Europe and actually lead a proper negotiation team.

People say that FF are finished as a party/ political force etc. But isn't Noonan the same minister for Health who was involved in the blood transfusion scandal a few years ago and bound a victim up in legal knots, who died before justice was served. Time heals all wounds. (still will not be voting FF by the way). Beware of history repeating its self.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on December 07, 2010, 11:12:04 PM
Quote from: An Gaeilgoir on December 07, 2010, 09:51:54 PM
Quote from: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on December 07, 2010, 09:22:00 PM
Quote from: Hound on December 07, 2010, 08:18:50 PM
Quote from: gallsman on December 07, 2010, 05:27:27 PM
Are these literally the only comments we have so far on the budget?

Some of this is hardly what I'd call "draconian". A jobseekers allowance of €196 a week reduced by €6?? My mates in the north on £56 will be crying them all a river.
Yeah, all €6 will do will take €6 per person out of the economy.

They needed to cut it in half. It'd still be miles better than the UK, but would be more likely to get lads off their arse and take jobs they don't particularly want instead of sitting at home all day watching the telly or playing their playstations.

That's tongue-in-cheek, but I would drop the dole by 50% for anyone who's on the dole for more than 1 year. I bet you'd see a lot suddenly getting jobs in month 11. Need to incentivise people to work, instead of incentivising them to sponge.

While I agree there is merit to the concept of your idea Hound, in the current job market that would only incentivise emigration on one end and an expanded black-market on the other.

From what i can the black market is alive and well. We have been trying to take on general operatives for a couple of jobs recently, we got one middle aged man who was sick of been at home. We were looking for 5 in total. One guy i know came for 2 days and decided that drawing the dole, doing a couple of nixers and two night's chinese deliveries was worth 850 euros a week in the hand. We are a long way from incentivises to go back to work.

Agreeing again with Muppet, this was all a bit of an anti- climax tgo be fair, our house will be down about 50 quid a week, the cost of living has come down and probably will come down further, so no big deal really.

Could some kind of half dole say €100 p/w, combined with NEW employees (min wage) being employed on say €6.00 P/hr for up to say 15 hours worked. This would be a temporary meassure 2-3 year arrangment. With their dole being reduced gradually per annum if they increased their hours worked or their pay is raised. If enough people where employed on this lower rate then the base wage could be lowered slowly, while bringing more people into employment.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on December 07, 2010, 11:25:28 PM
I'd agree with muppet that the whole thing has been a tad underwhelming.  The cuts should be much greater and the taxes higher imo.
From what I can make out, certainly as far as tax is concerned, we have just went back to about 2005 levels - people complaining about cuts have to remember we're coming from a pretty high base, the cuts and increased taxes still leave us pretty well off by european levels - that is unsustainable in the long run.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on December 07, 2010, 11:40:43 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on December 07, 2010, 11:25:28 PM
I'd agree with muppet that the whole thing has been a tad underwhelming.  The cuts should be much greater and the taxes higher imo.
From what I can make out, certainly as far as tax is concerned, we have just went back to about 2005 levels - people complaining about cuts have to remember we're coming from a pretty high base, the cuts and increased taxes still leave us pretty well off by european levels - that is unsustainable in the long run.

We are not pretty well off when you look at job prospects, health care, education costs etc. And as Muppet pointed out earlier, that's only addressing the deficiet. The debt is still hanging over us. I assume we need to take into account the IMF/ECB loan which has yet to be drawen? It is underwhelming though especially when people sitting at home shitting themselves watching the budget get treating to a chamber laughing and joking at Paul Gogarty. I wasn't fecking laughing with them. There are more of these budgets to come via FG, I'd like to have seen them angry rather than giggling at the Government.

I noticed Coughlan sitting sipping water as Pearse Doherty was attacking her over cuts to child benefit, school transport, nuc and she only fought back when he mentioned Misisters salaries. Show her prioirities allright.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on December 08, 2010, 12:01:03 AM
Quote from: Zapatista on December 07, 2010, 11:40:43 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on December 07, 2010, 11:25:28 PM
I'd agree with muppet that the whole thing has been a tad underwhelming.  The cuts should be much greater and the taxes higher imo.
From what I can make out, certainly as far as tax is concerned, we have just went back to about 2005 levels - people complaining about cuts have to remember we're coming from a pretty high base, the cuts and increased taxes still leave us pretty well off by european levels - that is unsustainable in the long run.

We are not pretty well off when you look at job prospects, health care, education costs etc. And as Muppet pointed out earlier, that's only addressing the deficiet.

I'm not sure about that, I think even accounting for all that we're still well off.  I'd like to see some comparisons though.  Certainly in terms of money in the pocket at the end of the week, I think we are substantially better off.

Re the banks/IMF monies etc, i imagine they've a provision for the interest payable at least?

It's a difficult thing to take away what people have grown accustomed to and what they therefore think they are entitled to, this budget went nowhere near far enough, in fact, I think this budget has an eye on the next election, i think FF actually think that being this soft, they might be able to win back a few loyal followers.  It's hardly a coincidence that old age pensions were barely touched, that the public sector have been exempted from the necessary cuts, that social welfare remains at unsustainable levels, that tax rates have been unchanged, that headline making caps on public sector salaries which will save a few million at most are being introduced. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: ludermor on December 08, 2010, 12:11:06 AM
Some speech from Doherty alright, i see Cowan fecked off in the middle of the speech
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on December 08, 2010, 12:27:12 AM
Quote from: Bogball XV on December 08, 2010, 12:01:03 AM

It's a difficult thing to take away what people have grown accustomed to and what they therefore think they are entitled to, this budget went nowhere near far enough, in fact, I think this budget has an eye on the next election, i think FF actually think that being this soft, they might be able to win back a few loyal followers.  It's hardly a coincidence that old age pensions were barely touched, that the public sector have been exempted from the necessary cuts, that social welfare remains at unsustainable levels, that tax rates have been unchanged, that headline making caps on public sector salaries which will save a few million at most are being introduced.

You could be right about an eye on the next election but I think that was more to do with where the cuts went than anything else.

This buget was always going to remove 6bn regardless of the next election. Money in the pocket is no substitute for life quality. Looking at emigration and unemployment levels is a better way to judge it. It's better to be working for a little less and be able to stay at home than it is to be uneployed and forced to leave. Multiply this by 45,000 people and 45-60,000 people respectively  in such a small country and you have major problems and poor life qquality. Add to that those living on the bread line but suffering daily with personal debt and a bleak future. If we are comparing then that's the sort of comparisons we should make. Lenihans was making financial and monetary comparisons all evening regarding the SW as good reason to make the cuts. He did stop short of making the same comparisons in TD's, Ministers and top Public servants salaries though.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on December 08, 2010, 12:42:02 AM
Quote from: Zapatista on December 08, 2010, 12:27:12 AMYou could be right about an eye on the next election but I think that was more to do with where the cuts went than anything else.

This buget was always going to remove 6bn regardless of the next election. Money in the pocket is no substitute for life quality. Looking at emigration and unemployment levels is a better way to judge it. It's better to be working for a little less and be able to stay at home than it is to be uneployed and forced to leave. Multiply this by 45,000 people and 45-60,000 people respectively  in such a small country and you have major problems and poor life qquality. Add to that those living on the bread line but suffering daily with personal debt and a bleak future. If we are comparing then that's the sort of comparisons we should make. Lenihans was making financial and monetary comparisons all evening regarding the SW as good reason to make the cuts. He did stop short of making the same comparisons in TD's, Ministers and top Public servants salaries though.
I agree with a lot of that, money is no substitute for quality of life.  I'm very much an advocate of high taxes and decent services as a reward, that was the opposite of the direction that this country has been taken since its inception though.  I've said here many times that I don't want to see cuts in numbers of public servants, but we do need to slash their wages.    We have to realise that we are broke, we could never actually afford the wages or benefits that we were paying out, that imbecile from drumcondra maybe thought we could, but we couldn't.
A few on here have mentioned cutting social welfare after a year and that probably makes sense, or at least after 12 months let the recipient earn it by taking part in some decent public works programme, we all have to give a little bit back, even if we're on the dole.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Lar Naparka on December 08, 2010, 01:42:31 AM
Quote from: An Gaeilgoir on December 07, 2010, 10:18:07 PM
Quote from: Tubberman on December 07, 2010, 10:13:38 PM
Quote from: FermGael on December 07, 2010, 10:10:43 PM
Michael Noonan is wiping the floor with Brian Lenihan on Rte one.

Absolutely destroying him!
Being polite by calling him 'Minister' and 'Brian', and then completely demolishing him  :D
At least it looks like there is hope that Noonan could go to Europe and actually lead a proper negotiation team.

People say that FF are finished as a party/ political force etc. But isn't Noonan the same minister for Health who was involved in the blood transfusion scandal a few years ago and bound a victim up in legal knots, who died before justice was served. Time heals all wounds. (still will not be voting FF by the way). Beware of history repeating its self.

I watched the interview and I honestly don't think Noonan ko'd Lenihan. He should have, without a doubt. Public sentiment was in his favour and he had had several hours to cherry pick and Lenihan had to defend the most unpopular budget in the state's history. Yet, the host had to remind him several times that they were there to discuss the budget and not FG's policy document.
Okay, maybe I am grumpy because I was disappointed at Noonan's budget speech. It lacked passion and cohesion and he relied on tired clichés and mistimed jokes to make his case. It wasn't as if Lenihan had caught him off-guard because the main aspects of this budget had been signalled well in advance. As he was speaking, I studied the reactions of the non- FG members of the Opposition; Labour, SF and the Independents. To say they seemed as underwhelmed as much as I was is putting it mildly. No doubt about it; Mickey Noonan has had better days.
Earlier on, I saw Lenihan's interview with Vincent Browne on TV3. I had expected Ol' Sourpuss to wipe the floor with him but, again, I was disappointed. Lenihan kept his cool throughout as Browne failed repeatedly to pin him down. Make no mistake about it; Lenihan is a tougher and more able operator than Biffo.
It's quite probable that he will find himself Leader of the Opposition after the next election and Enda had better smarten up. ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on December 08, 2010, 08:58:54 AM
I heard a clip of Lenihan chatting Ivan Yates played this morning. Yates asked was he embarrassed? Lenihan said - No, I have had to deal with the worst crisis in history blah blah. I accept mistakes were made, huge mistakes were made pre 2008.... :o. He just hung Cowen out to dry. There is a definite line of attack there.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Onion Bag on December 08, 2010, 10:24:38 AM
It is a slow day in a damp little Irish town. The rain is beating down and the streets are deserted. Times are tough, everybody is in debt and everybody lives on credit. On this particular day a rich German tourist is driving through the town, stops at the local hotel and lays a €100 note on the desk, telling the hotel owner he wants to inspect the rooms upstairs in order to pick one to spend the night. The owner gives him some keys and, as soon as the visitor has walked upstairs, the hotelier grabs the €100 note and runs next door to pay his debt to the butcher. The butcher takes the €100 note and runs down the street to repay his debt to the pig farmer. The pig farmer takes the €100 note and heads off to pay his bill at the supplier of feed and fuel. The guy at the Farmers ' Co-op takes the €100 note and runs to pay his drinks bill at the pub. The publican slips the money along to the local prostitute drinking at the bar, who has also been facing hard times and has had to offer him "services" on credit. The hooker then rushes to the hotel and pays off her room bill to the hotel owner with the €100 note. The hotel proprietor then places the €100 note back on the counter so the rich traveller will not suspect anything. At that moment the traveller comes down the stairs, picks up the €100 note, states that the rooms are not satisfactory, pockets the money and leaves town. No one produced anything. No one earned anything. However, the whole town is now out of debt and looking to the future with a lot more optimism. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how the bailout package works.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Lar Naparka on December 08, 2010, 10:42:29 AM
Quote from: Onion Bag on December 08, 2010, 10:24:38 AM
It is a slow day in a damp little Irish town. The rain is beating down and the streets are deserted. Times are tough, everybody is in debt and everybody lives on credit. On this particular day a rich German tourist is driving through the town, stops at the local hotel and lays a €100 note on the desk, telling the hotel owner he wants to inspect the rooms upstairs in order to pick one to spend the night. The owner gives him some keys and, as soon as the visitor has walked upstairs, the hotelier grabs the €100 note and runs next door to pay his debt to the butcher. The butcher takes the €100 note and runs down the street to repay his debt to the pig farmer. The pig farmer takes the €100 note and heads off to pay his bill at the supplier of feed and fuel. The guy at the Farmers ' Co-op takes the €100 note and runs to pay his drinks bill at the pub. The publican slips the money along to the local prostitute drinking at the bar, who has also been facing hard times and has had to offer him "services" on credit. The hooker then rushes to the hotel and pays off her room bill to the hotel owner with the €100 note. The hotel proprietor then places the €100 note back on the counter so the rich traveller will not suspect anything. At that moment the traveller comes down the stairs, picks up the €100 note, states that the rooms are not satisfactory, pockets the money and leaves town. No one produced anything. No one earned anything. However, the whole town is now out of debt and looking to the future with a lot more optimism. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how the bailout package works.

Priceless! ;D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: armaghniac on December 08, 2010, 11:30:20 AM
QuotePriceless!

Priceless perhaps, but already posted twice before.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on December 08, 2010, 12:11:40 PM
Quote from: Lar Naparka on December 08, 2010, 01:42:31 AMIt's quite probable that he will find himself Leader of the Opposition after the next election and Enda had better smarten up. ;)
he has less to lose than most in that his ministerial pension won't be as significant as the rest of the cabinet, but I have heard that health issues will preclude his even standing.

It would be shocking if he his party voted him in with his record over the last 2 years, twice voted europe's worst finance minister and more tellingly, his record proves that this is probably the case.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on December 08, 2010, 12:35:38 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on December 08, 2010, 12:11:40 PM
he has less to lose than most in that his ministerial pension won't be as significant as the rest of the cabinet, but I have heard that health issues will preclude his even standing.

It would be shocking if he his party voted him in with his record over the last 2 years, twice voted europe's worst finance minister and more tellingly, his record proves that this is probably the case.

He said on RTE last week that he'll definitely be standing. I think the selection convention is this week or next week.

OK, he's not a very reliable source but I think he's right on this one.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on December 08, 2010, 12:40:14 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on December 08, 2010, 12:35:38 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on December 08, 2010, 12:11:40 PM
he has less to lose than most in that his ministerial pension won't be as significant as the rest of the cabinet, but I have heard that health issues will preclude his even standing.

It would be shocking if he his party voted him in with his record over the last 2 years, twice voted europe's worst finance minister and more tellingly, his record proves that this is probably the case.

He said on RTE last week that he'll definitely be standing. I think the selection convention is this week or next week.

OK, he's not a very reliable source but I think he's right on this one.
he's deluding himself then, i find it all a bit bizarre tbh.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on December 08, 2010, 12:42:01 PM
Quote from: Onion Bag on December 08, 2010, 10:24:38 AM
It is a slow day in a damp little Irish town. The rain is beating down and the streets are deserted. Times are tough, everybody is in debt and everybody lives on credit. On this particular day a rich German tourist is driving through the town, stops at the local hotel and lays a €100 note on the desk, telling the hotel owner he wants to inspect the rooms upstairs in order to pick one to spend the night. The owner gives him some keys and, as soon as the visitor has walked upstairs, the hotelier grabs the €100 note and runs next door to pay his debt to the butcher. The butcher takes the €100 note and runs down the street to repay his debt to the pig farmer. The pig farmer takes the €100 note and heads off to pay his bill at the supplier of feed and fuel. The guy at the Farmers ' Co-op takes the €100 note and runs to pay his drinks bill at the pub. The publican slips the money along to the local prostitute drinking at the bar, who has also been facing hard times and has had to offer him "services" on credit. The hooker then rushes to the hotel and pays off her room bill to the hotel owner with the €100 note. The hotel proprietor then places the €100 note back on the counter so the rich traveller will not suspect anything. At that moment the traveller comes down the stairs, picks up the €100 note, states that the rooms are not satisfactory, pockets the money and leaves town. No one produced anything. No one earned anything. However, the whole town is now out of debt and looking to the future with a lot more optimism. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how the bailout package works.

The way I see it the rich German lends €100 to the Irish hotel-owner at 7%. The apparently delighted Irish Hotel owner uses the money to pay off a €100 debt he had with his Portuguese Butcher at 6%. The Butcher thinks this is great and gives the €100 to his Greek Pig Farmer to pay off a debt he had at 5%. The Farmer gives the €100 to an English Publican to pay off a debt he had at 4%. He gives it to a bankrupt Irish bank to pay a debt the publican got at 3%. The Bankrupt Irish banks gives it to the original German to pay of a debt he got at 2%. The German then finds another Irish hotel-owner and lends it out again at 7%.

Lian Brenihan the head of the Irish hoteliers, who are now all bankrupt, insists he did nothing wrong and that all of his 'European partners agree with this assessment'.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on December 08, 2010, 12:48:38 PM
http://notesonthefront.typepad.com/politicaleconomy/2010/12/the-creepy-is-in-the-detail-which-the-government-didnt-reveal-social-welfare-rates-will-fall-by-4-percent-exc.html

This is how Deloitte breaks down the millionaire's budget. They will pay €11,936 more on income tax and PRSI. However, under the Universal Social Charge, they pay €34,931 less than under the Health and Income levies which the Charge replaces. That really puts the 'Social' in Universal Social Charge.

And at the risk of totally creeping you out, the ESRI estimates that there will be no wage-growth next year. However, non-wage income (rents, dividends, interest, and self-employment) will grow by 29 percent. So those very high non-wage earners can look forward to not only an increase in their incomes, but tax breaks on top of that.

Truly, a millionaire's budget.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: whiskeysteve on December 08, 2010, 02:42:07 PM
Some budget. Welfare cut whilst cowering away from decisive action against the gross public sector inefficiences.

Muppet must be delighted with the number of quangos cut  :P

A cowardly and indecisive budget that has maintained the institutionalised gombeenism at the top for the brief while yet.

A disgraceful preservation of their status quo, IMO
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on December 08, 2010, 02:43:55 PM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on December 08, 2010, 02:42:07 PM
Some budget. Welfare cut whilst cowering away from decisive action against the gross public sector inefficiences.

Muppet must be delighted with the number of quangos cut  :P

A cowardly and indecisive budget that has maintained the institutionalised gombeenism at the top for the brief while yet.

A disgraceful preservation of their status quo, IMO

Did the budget mention any of them being cut?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on December 08, 2010, 03:07:26 PM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on December 08, 2010, 02:42:07 PM
Some budget. Welfare cut whilst cowering away from decisive action against the gross public sector inefficiences.

Muppet must be delighted with the number of quangos cut  :P

A cowardly and indecisive budget that has maintained the institutionalised gombeenism at the top for the brief while yet.
A disgraceful preservation of their status quo, IMO
As I said earlier, I think it was a budget that was formulated with people who actually vote in mind.
Given that, I find it unbelievable that the new govt will not introduce their own effort immediately on taking office.  This budget has no need to be in place for any more than 6-8 weeks. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on December 08, 2010, 03:23:14 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on December 08, 2010, 12:40:14 PM
he's deluding himself then, i find it all a bit bizarre tbh.

He's been deluding us for years :P
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: whiskeysteve on December 08, 2010, 03:30:33 PM
Quote from: muppet on December 08, 2010, 02:43:55 PM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on December 08, 2010, 02:42:07 PM
Some budget. Welfare cut whilst cowering away from decisive action against the gross public sector inefficiences.

Muppet must be delighted with the number of quangos cut  :P

A cowardly and indecisive budget that has maintained the institutionalised gombeenism at the top for the brief while yet.

A disgraceful preservation of their status quo, IMO

Did the budget mention any of them being cut?

untouched as far as I know.

Aye BB, even after losing all credibilty they are more intent on ringfencing supposed FF powerbases that everyone knows will have to be tackled sooner or later. They know this themselves, yet resist taking on difficult/fundamental change in order to preserve a core vote and instead kick the man whose down already, they lost his vote so f**k him.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on December 08, 2010, 08:12:14 PM
Note the article is in the Guardian.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/dec/08/allied-irish-banks-pay-bonuses-despite-bailout (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/dec/08/allied-irish-banks-pay-bonuses-despite-bailout)

Allied Irish Banks to pay €40m bonuses despite bailout
Stricken Allied Irish Banks says court case forces it to give out bonuses while Ireland's taxpayers suffer

Allied Irish Banks sign on Grafton Street, Dublin. About 2,400 bankers will cash in. Photograph: Peter Morrison/AP
Stricken Allied Irish Banks is preparing to hand out €40m (£34m) of bonuses next week – despite being on the brink of receiving another emergency bailout from the Irish government.

As many as 2,400 bankers in its Dublin capital markets division are to receive the payments on 17 December under agreements struck with the bank in 2008.

The bank, 19% owned by Ireland's taxpayers but expected to reach 95% state-ownership, had originally been blocked from making the payments under one of the government's bailout programmes.

But legal action by a trader, John Foy, over a deferred €161,000 bonus awarded in 2008 has led the bank to conclude it will need to pay bonuses to many of the staff to whom they were awarded for that year. The bonuses are being handed out at a time when the government is instigating four years of tax rises and brutal cuts to benefits. The most austere budget in the country's history was passed this week.

European banking regulators are also meeting in London tomorrow to try to agree a new set of European-wide rules on how bonuses should be structured to avoid paying them when they suffer losses after taking on too much risk. The rules will require bonuses to be deferred over three years and clawed back if losses are made

Once the Committee of European Banking Supervisors makes its announcement, domestic regulators across Europe will have to race to implement the rules if they are to meet the January 1 deadline that Europe has demanded.

Given the Foy judgment last month, AIB says it has little option but to honour the 2008 bonus awards to staff "as per the contractual entitlements arising from the business's performance in 2008".

Ireland's central bank has told AIB it needs to raise a further €5.2bn by the end of February though this is likely to come from the €85bn International Monetary Fund-European Union rescue package rather than the private sector. This will take the bank almost entirely into state ownership.

Bank of Ireland is also racing to raise €2.1bn of fresh cash to avoid falling into majority state control. The government owns a 38% stake and the bank today tried to start generating better quality capital by offering to exchange its existing low quality securities for securities guaranteed by the government.

BoI will be hoping for takers of its so-called liability management exercise as the more money it can raise from private investors the lower the level of bailout funds it will need from the government.

Bankers are receiving much of the blame for forcing Ireland to take international assistance and implement the austerity budgetary measures. But while the public is expected to endure years of pain, the package of measures to save €6bn in the coming year were welcomed by the European commission. An EC spokesman described the budget as "tough and ambitious". and part of the programme needed to allow Ireland to be granted €85bn of rescue funds.

"It is an ambitious and indispensable tool for the redressment of the situation. There is the right balance between revenue and expenditure measures," the spokesman added.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on December 09, 2010, 09:20:36 AM
That story is not in the Irish Times. I wonder why. 

Selected comments from decent English people

•    RonJB
8 December 2010 7:35PM
I'm starting to think my definition of a bonus is wildly inaccurate.
It's either that, or the bankers are a bunch of selfish amoral &*^(^^&%*(%'s.

•    lovol
8 December 2010 7:37PM
if ever bankers should hang their heads in shame this is the time! What sort of hard faced bastard goes to court over this? the man is a total disgrace...if he had one shred of decency he would refuse to accept it! Dear God what a twisted world we live in!

•    drabacus
8 December 2010 7:43PM
There was nothing stopping the Irish government putting a windfall tax on bonuses in yesterday's budget, court case or no court case.

•    teaandchocolate
8 December 2010 7:49PM

If this isn't the final straw that cracks Ireland into all out bleedin' war then I don't what would do it.
I'm not even Irish and I'm furious!
€40m What for? For being brilliant at their jobs? Come on now, pull the other one.

•    Danden
8 December 2010 7:49PM
161,000 euros is a hell of alot of money compared to the minimum wage in Ireland (Which is about to be decreased and taxed) The problem with people like Foy is that they just cannot see the wood for the trees. If he had any honour whatsoever he would recind his entitlement to this payment. Having said that, his employer promised him this money and has a contractural obligation to pay it.
The Irish banks made alot of promises back then that they just couldn't keep. Promises that have had deep and damaging ramifications not just in Eire but far beyond. How many heads have rolled? Who has been held accountable?
Or are they just all lining their pockets like Foy?

•   BeaucoupLeftism
8 December 2010 9:07PM
Today I listened to story of a blind person who is worried about having enough money to feed his guide dog. The bill comes to about 60 euros a month. His welfare payment has been reduced due to this banking crisis. I'm so f**king angry right now. This Foy and the other bankers who accept this bonus are not men. Shame on you.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on December 09, 2010, 09:22:24 AM
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2010/1209/1224285100507.html

IRISH BANKS repaid €68.8 billion to senior bondholders and €1.4 billion to subordinated bondholders as their full debt fell due under the two-year blanket guarantee which ended in September, Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan has said.
This meant that no bondholder had to share in the €60 billion recapitalisation costs of the domestic banks.
"As is normal practice when bonds mature, they are repaid – in this instance all were senior bonds and all were Government guaranteed. Furthermore, under Irish law senior debt obligations rank equally with deposits and other creditors," said Mr Lenihan.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on December 09, 2010, 09:58:43 AM
Quote from: seafoid on December 09, 2010, 09:22:24 AM
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2010/1209/1224285100507.html

IRISH BANKS repaid €68.8 billion to senior bondholders and €1.4 billion to subordinated bondholders as their full debt fell due under the two-year blanket guarantee which ended in September, Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan has said.
This meant that no bondholder had to share in the €60 billion recapitalisation costs of the domestic banks.
"As is normal practice when bonds mature, they are repaid – in this instance all were senior bonds and all were Government guaranteed. Furthermore, under Irish law senior debt obligations rank equally with deposits and other creditors," said Mr Lenihan.

And receivers of large bonuses evidently.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on December 09, 2010, 10:02:49 AM
Quote from: muppet on December 09, 2010, 09:58:43 AM
Quote from: seafoid on December 09, 2010, 09:22:24 AM
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2010/1209/1224285100507.html

IRISH BANKS repaid €68.8 billion to senior bondholders and €1.4 billion to subordinated bondholders as their full debt fell due under the two-year blanket guarantee which ended in September, Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan has said.
This meant that no bondholder had to share in the €60 billion recapitalisation costs of the domestic banks.
"As is normal practice when bonds mature, they are repaid – in this instance all were senior bonds and all were Government guaranteed. Furthermore, under Irish law senior debt obligations rank equally with deposits and other creditors," said Mr Lenihan.

And receivers of large bonuses evidently.

And under Irish law the NPRF is for the funding of future PS entitlements and not a plaything of the government.

"Keady chuckles at the mere mention of Linnane. "Sylvie used have a great oul' saying in the dressing-room," he smiles. "He'd say: 'Lads, ye'll win nothing if ye haven't a few tinkers in the team.' And we'd say: 'Well, we're delighted to have you anyway Sylvie!'" "

Ireland needs a few tinkers.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on December 09, 2010, 10:04:12 AM
Quote from: seafoid on December 09, 2010, 10:02:49 AM
Quote from: muppet on December 09, 2010, 09:58:43 AM
Quote from: seafoid on December 09, 2010, 09:22:24 AM
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2010/1209/1224285100507.html

IRISH BANKS repaid €68.8 billion to senior bondholders and €1.4 billion to subordinated bondholders as their full debt fell due under the two-year blanket guarantee which ended in September, Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan has said.
This meant that no bondholder had to share in the €60 billion recapitalisation costs of the domestic banks.
"As is normal practice when bonds mature, they are repaid – in this instance all were senior bonds and all were Government guaranteed. Furthermore, under Irish law senior debt obligations rank equally with deposits and other creditors," said Mr Lenihan.

And receivers of large bonuses evidently.

And under Irish law the NPRF is for the funding of future PS entitlements and not a plaything of the government.

"Keady chuckles at the mere mention of Linnane. "Sylvie used have a great oul' saying in the dressing-room," he smiles. "He'd say: 'Lads, ye'll win nothing if ye haven't a few tinkers in the team.' And we'd say: 'Well, we're delighted to have you anyway Sylvie!'" "

Ireland needs a few tinkers.

Yes but we've enough in the Dáil.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on December 09, 2010, 10:17:28 AM
Quote from: seafoid on December 09, 2010, 09:20:36 AM
That story is not in the Irish Times. I wonder why.  Or are they just all lining their pockets like Foy?

It was in the Sindo last weekend.  Seems pretty sensational, but when you read the detail, you can do nothing but throw your hands up in despair.

http://www.herald.ie/national-news/bailedout-banks-still-giving-staff-big-bonuses-2449958.html
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on December 09, 2010, 10:33:03 AM
Quote from: muppet on December 09, 2010, 10:04:12 AM
Quote from: seafoid on December 09, 2010, 10:02:49 AM
Quote from: muppet on December 09, 2010, 09:58:43 AM
Quote from: seafoid on December 09, 2010, 09:22:24 AM
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2010/1209/1224285100507.html

IRISH BANKS repaid €68.8 billion to senior bondholders and €1.4 billion to subordinated bondholders as their full debt fell due under the two-year blanket guarantee which ended in September, Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan has said.
This meant that no bondholder had to share in the €60 billion recapitalisation costs of the domestic banks.
"As is normal practice when bonds mature, they are repaid – in this instance all were senior bonds and all were Government guaranteed. Furthermore, under Irish law senior debt obligations rank equally with deposits and other creditors," said Mr Lenihan.

And receivers of large bonuses evidently.

And under Irish law the NPRF is for the funding of future PS entitlements and not a plaything of the government.

"Keady chuckles at the mere mention of Linnane. "Sylvie used have a great oul' saying in the dressing-room," he smiles. "He'd say: 'Lads, ye'll win nothing if ye haven't a few tinkers in the team.' And we'd say: 'Well, we're delighted to have you anyway Sylvie!'" "

Ireland needs a few tinkers.

Yes but we've enough in the Dáil.

Ones who fight dirty .
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on December 09, 2010, 01:40:54 PM
Heidi is the proprietor of a bar in Dublin . She realizes that virtually all of her customers are unemployed alcoholics and, as such, can no longer afford to patronize her bar. To solve this problem, she comes up with new marketing plan that allows her customers to drink now, but pay later. She keeps track of the drinks consumed on a ledger (thereby granting the  customers loans).

Word gets around about Heidi's "drink now, pay later" marketing strategy and, as a result, increasing numbers of customers flood into Heidi's bar. Soon she has the largest sales volume for any bar in Dublin .  By providing her customers' freedom from immediate payment demands, Heidi  gets no resistance when, at regular intervals, she substantially increases her prices for wine and beer, the most consumed beverages.

Consequently,  Heidi's gross sales volume increases massively. A young and dynamic vice-president at the local bank recognizes that these customer debts constitute valuable future assets and increases Heidi's borrowing limit. He sees no reason for any undue concern, since he has the debts of the unemployed alcoholics as collateral.

At the bank's corporate headquarters, expert traders figure a way to make huge commissions, and transform these customer loans into DRINKBONDS,  ALKIBONDS and PUKEBONDS. These securities are then bundled and traded on international security markets. Naive investors don't really understand  that the securities being sold to them as AAA secured bonds are really
the debts of unemployed alcoholics. Nevertheless, the bond prices continuously climb, and the securities soon become the hottest-selling items for some of the nation's leading brokerage houses.

One day, even though the bond prices are still climbing, a risk manager at the original local bank decides that the time has come to demand payment on the debts incurred by the drinkers at Heidi's bar. He so informs Heidi.

Heidi then demands payment from her alcoholic patrons, but being unemployed alcoholics they cannot pay back their drinking debts. Since, Heidi cannot fulfill her loan obligations she is forced into bankruptcy.

The bar closes and the eleven employees lose their jobs.  Overnight, DRINKBONDS, ALKIBONDS and PUKEBONDS drop in price by 90%.

The collapsed bond asset value destroys the banks liquidity and prevents it from issuing new loans, thus freezing credit and economic activity in the community.

The suppliers of Heidi's bar had granted her generous payment extensions and had invested their firms' pension funds in the various BOND securities.

They find they are now faced with having to write off her bad debt and with  losing over 90% of the presumed value of the bonds. Her wine supplier also claims bankruptcy, closing the doors  a family business that had endured for three generations, her beer supplier is taken over by a competitor, who  immediately closes the local plant and lays off 150 workers.

Fortunately though, the bank, the brokerage houses and their respective executives are saved and bailed out by a multi-billion dollar, no-strings attached cash infusion from their power-drunk cronies in Government. The funds required for this bailout are obtained by new taxes levied on employed, middle-class, non-drinkers who have never been in Heidi's bar.

So now, you understand economics in 2010.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Lar Naparka on December 09, 2010, 02:06:59 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on December 08, 2010, 12:11:40 PM
Quote from: Lar Naparka on December 08, 2010, 01:42:31 AMIt's quite probable that he will find himself Leader of the Opposition after the next election and Enda had better smarten up. ;)
he has less to lose than most in that his ministerial pension won't be as significant as the rest of the cabinet, but I have heard that health issues will preclude his even standing.

It would be shocking if he his party voted him in with his record over the last 2 years, twice voted europe's worst finance minister and more tellingly, his record proves that this is probably the case.
No doubt about it; he plans to stand alright and, what's more, he is gunning for Biffo's job. Didn't Auntie Mary give some clucky clucky advice to Mrs Cowan a few days ago; telling her she should persuade her poor hardworking husband to give up the oul' job because the pressure was getting to the poor fella?
The softest part of Mary is her teeth to put it mildly if ungrammatically. She wants to see her favourite nephew take over the party leadership before she stands down at the end of the present Dail. Brian is clearly planning to do just that and it came across clearly in his interview with Vincent Browne in the aftermath of his budget presentation. Browne did a poor job of pinning him down on the number of inaccurate and downright false statements on the state of the economy he had issued in recent times. Lenihan was quick to put distance between himself and Biffo in his replies. If you were to believe the hoor, everything bad can be traced back to 'pre2008'decisions or statements made by Cowan and not himself.
Inexplicably, Browne gave up trying to nail him down and switched to another topic when it was obvious that Lenihan was waffling. On the other hand, Lenihan was straightforward about his current income. He takes home, sez he, €90,000 of his current income. (I presume he was talking about the present year.)
I expect him to be the one to oust Cowan because he seems to be the best of a very bad lot. I know the decision is up to the parliamentary party members but I don't see either Martin or Hanafin being credible alternatives.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on December 09, 2010, 03:00:38 PM
Quote from: Declan on December 09, 2010, 01:40:54 PMSo now, you understand economics in 2010.
That should be taught in every school, it's pretty accurate and definitely memorable - it would be good to have it re-iterated at various points throughout the syllabi for banking exams too.

To expand it a little, you could include how trading on the future prices of alkibonds et al was introduced to further expand the range of products, and of course, it would need a little nod given to the infamous contracts for difference ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bensars on December 09, 2010, 03:14:21 PM
QuoteAIB Executive Chairman David Hodgkinson has told staff that the issuing of the €40m in bonuses to executives 'reflects the past'.

Mr Hodgkinson made his comments in a note to staff this morning after it emerged that 2,400 workers will receive an average bonus of €16,700.

AIB will give the bonuses after several staff took court action to secure the payments.

The payments are part of contracts signed before the financial crisis began in 2008.

It is believed that cheques will be posted to executives on 17 December.


'Whilst this is legally required of us, it reflects the past and is not the way we intend to conduct ourselves in future,' Mr Hodgkinson said.

He added: 'The issues we are facing mean that the bank currently relies on government and taxpayer support and I am working to ensure that, in future, our pay and benefits policy is more reflective of our organisation's responsibilities, performance and of the economic climate in general.'


The bank has so far received €3.5bn of recapitalisation funds from the State.

Shares in the bank have plummeted from €23.95 to just 50c over the last two years.

The €40m represents a significant part of the €572.9m the bank is worth on the ISEQ today. Almost €55m was paid to staff in bonuses last year.

The issue was raised by Opposition parties in the Dáil this morning.

Labour leader Eamon Gilmore said that the bonuses would amount to more than what a carer would get all year.

IDA Ireland Chief Executive Barry O'Leary has said it is 'bizarre' that AIB is paying €40m in bonuses to executives.

Mr O'Leary told RTÉ Radio that he wished the IDA had that sort of money to repair the country's tarnished reputation on the international scene.

Elsewhere, Fine Gael is to propose amendments to legislation to impose a 99% 'super tax' on bankers' bonuses.

The amendments are to be put down to the Financial Emergency Measures Bill, which is due to clear all stages in the Dáil by tomorrow afternoon.

Banking spokesperson Damien English said the proposed amendments would 'tax these immoral bonuses out of existence.'
http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1209/aib.html

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Tyrones own on December 09, 2010, 05:40:38 PM
The result of entrenched socialized entitlements... coming to an Ireland/America near you ::)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20101209/wl_nm/us_britain_politics
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: scud on December 09, 2010, 10:23:54 PM
Quote from: Tyrones own on December 09, 2010, 05:40:38 PM
The result of entrenched socialized entitlements... coming to an Ireland/America near you ::)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20101209/wl_nm/us_britain_politics

What are entrenched socialized elements?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Tyrones own on December 09, 2010, 11:01:08 PM
Quote
What are entrenched socialized elements?
Not sure... :-\
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Fear ón Srath Bán on December 09, 2010, 11:10:10 PM
Probably the sickest joke in 2010.

Pre-Irish Budget 2010, the Irish Government (Cowen, Lenihan, and the rest of those fcukin wasters) state that "...the pain will be shared".

At that point, the Taoiseach was on thirteen (yep, 13 -- worth it, eh?) times the salary of someone on the minimum wage.

Post-Irish Budget 2010, the durty rotten buffoon of a Biffo will be on FOURTEEN TIMES the salary of someone on the minimum wage.

They're beyond traitors.

The Millionaires' Budget (http://politico.ie/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=7031)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hound on December 10, 2010, 08:14:26 AM
Quote from: Fear ón Srath Bán on December 09, 2010, 11:10:10 PM
Probably the sickest joke in 2010.

Pre-Irish Budget 2010, the Irish Government (Cowen, Lenihan, and the rest of those fcukin wasters) state that "...the pain will be shared".

At that point, the Taoiseach was on thirteen (yep, 13 -- worth it, eh?) times the salary of someone on the minimum wage.

Post-Irish Budget 2010, the durty rotten buffoon of a Biffo will be on FOURTEEN TIMES the salary of someone on the minimum wage.

They're beyond traitors.

The Millionaires' Budget (http://politico.ie/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=7031)

That's a load of bladdy codswallop.
Comparing the minimum wage to the taoiseach's salary? FFS, catch a grip.

And as for the figures of the very high self-employed earners being better off (and let's ignore that they've been hit by previous budgets and they'll be hit hard by the pension relief restrictions, so I doubt there'll be any actually better off) - but if you're self-employed and earning say €250,000 a year, you can be sure you've worked damn hard over a long number of years to get there, and you can be sure you're very good at what you do - plus you're likely to be employing people, and contributing payroll taxes and VAT to the exchequer - not to mention your individual taxes on their own would pay for 10 people on the dole every year, despite the dole being so high in the country.

These people have contributed hugely and are contributing hugely, and yet people want to target these people more, and ignore the thousands who havent contributed a cent in years, if ever
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: scud on December 10, 2010, 11:09:36 AM
Quote from: Hound on December 10, 2010, 08:14:26 AM
Quote from: Fear ón Srath Bán on December 09, 2010, 11:10:10 PM
Probably the sickest joke in 2010.

Pre-Irish Budget 2010, the Irish Government (Cowen, Lenihan, and the rest of those fcukin wasters) state that "...the pain will be shared".

At that point, the Taoiseach was on thirteen (yep, 13 -- worth it, eh?) times the salary of someone on the minimum wage.

Post-Irish Budget 2010, the durty rotten buffoon of a Biffo will be on FOURTEEN TIMES the salary of someone on the minimum wage.

They're beyond traitors.

The Millionaires' Budget (http://politico.ie/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=7031)

That's a load of bladdy codswallop.
Comparing the minimum wage to the taoiseach's salary? FFS, catch a grip.

And as for the figures of the very high self-employed earners being better off (and let's ignore that they've been hit by previous budgets and they'll be hit hard by the pension relief restrictions, so I doubt there'll be any actually better off) - but if you're self-employed and earning say €250,000 a year, you can be sure you've worked damn hard over a long number of years to get there, and you can be sure you're very good at what you do - plus you're likely to be employing people, and contributing payroll taxes and VAT to the exchequer - not to mention your individual taxes on their own would pay for 10 people on the dole every year, despite the dole being so high in the country.

These people have contributed hugely and are contributing hugely, and yet people want to target these people more, and ignore the thousands who havent contributed a cent in years, if ever

This is typical right-wing 'market knows best' garbage. Lets go a step further and lower taxes for the rich, that way these higher dimensional beings can go forth and make more money, which will of course trickle down to the rest of society....

Some of these people may have contributed hugely, most have benefitted hugely - from a tax system designed by the rich, for the rich

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bailestil on December 10, 2010, 11:29:51 AM
Quote from: scud on December 10, 2010, 11:09:36 AM
This is typical right-wing 'market knows best' garbage. Lets go a step further and lower taxes for the rich, that way these higher dimensional beings can go forth and make more money, which will of course trickle down to the rest of society....

Some of these people may have contributed hugely, most have benefitted hugely - from a tax system designed by the rich, for the rich

The south seems to be heading towards real socialism at the minute. From Pearse Doherty's musings and Vincent Brown now turning positively communist.

However Like Sinn Fein the north, they spout populist socialism knowing its easy votes. Then they get into power and discover the realisties of life.
Tutition fees in the North, Deputy First Minister?

I would dearly nearly like to see how much of their policies they would introduce if they had an overal majority tomorrow, and how it would all be funded.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hardy on December 10, 2010, 12:51:10 PM
Well said, Hound.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on December 10, 2010, 03:24:08 PM
Great post Declan.

After FF's disastrous version of populism, leftist populism (screw the 'rich') would bury us for an extra 5 years on top of the depression we will have. Voting for people who prioritise the Public Sector and high taxes is hardly the solution to our problems but Gilmore for example is doing a great job of attracting voters.

Half of all income tax is paid by a low percentage of high earners. It is spin and lies suggesting high earners are somehow not pulling their weight from a tax point of view. From what I see most of those who publicly demand high earners pay even more tax, pay little or no tax themselves.

Either way, the problem for the Dept of Finance is this. Tax the f*ck out of high earners and some of them will move to another jurisdiction. Lots of these people work for foreign outfits in places like the IFSC, Intel, Google etc. Some of them spend lots of time abroad as it is. Remember these people pay the vast majority of the income tax raised in Ireland. Even if only 20% of them moved it would be disastrous for the tax take. Driving them out is not clever.

As for the 'wealth tax' proposal. Let's say it was 1%. Take Michael O'Leary, of whom I make no secret of my loathing. However, if he is worth €500 Million he will have to pay €5 Million a year in wealth tax alone. Does anyone with more than one functional brain cell see that it might be in his interests to take himself and his €500 Million out of the State?

Replacing populist right nonsense with populism left nonsense is not a good idea.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hardy on December 10, 2010, 03:40:27 PM
And well said Muppet.

(Did you mean to credit Hound, not Declan?)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on December 10, 2010, 03:42:46 PM
Meanwhile Fitch has downgraded Ireland by 3 notches to BBB+  and market players believe Ireland is headed to junk status. All thanks to the banks. 


BTW Muppet you should apply to have the thread declared a UNESCO monument. It could become part of Leaving cert honours economics and7or certain university courses. .   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on December 10, 2010, 03:56:25 PM
Quote from: Hardy on December 10, 2010, 03:40:27 PM
And well said Muppet.

(Did you mean to credit Hound, not Declan?)

Declan's Alkibond post. Generally agree with Hound's though as well.

The only thing is I'm not arguing to lower taxes for high earners. Leave them where they are.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Tyrones own on December 10, 2010, 04:00:36 PM
Quote from: muppet on December 10, 2010, 03:24:08 PM
Great post Declan.

After FF's disastrous version of populism, leftist populism (screw the 'rich') would bury us for an extra 5 years on top of the depression we will have. Voting for people who prioritise the Public Sector and high taxes is hardly the solution to our problems but Gilmore for example is doing a great job of attracting voters.

Half of all income tax is paid by a low percentage of high earners. It is spin and lies suggesting high earners are somehow not pulling their weight from a tax point of view. From what I see most of those who publicly demand high earners pay even more tax, pay little or no tax themselves.

Either way, the problem for the Dept of Finance is this. Tax the f*ck out of high earners and some of them will move to another jurisdiction. Lots of these people work for foreign outfits in places like the IFSC, Intel, Google etc. Some of them spend lots of time abroad as it is. Remember these people pay the vast majority of the income tax raised in Ireland. Even if only 20% of them moved it would be disastrous for the tax take. Driving them out is not clever.

As for the 'wealth tax' proposal. Let's say it was 1%. Take Michael O'Leary, of whom I make no secret of my loathing. However, if he is worth €500 Million he will have to pay €5 Million a year in wealth tax alone. Does anyone with more than one functional brain cell see that it might be in his interests to take himself and his €500 Million out of the State?

Replacing populist right nonsense with populism left nonsense is not a good idea.
That a boy Muppet... you're coming around more and more everyday  ;D
Taking from the willing to work and giving it to the lazy cnuts who won't
can only have one result and if any of ye entitlement recipients like these
idiots in London can't see that then we'll be down the toilet all the quicker.
Massive welfare cuts are what's necessary across the board... when a man can sit
at home and be as well off as opposed to going to work then something's badly wrong.
Quite simply unsustainable!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hardy on December 10, 2010, 04:02:11 PM
Quote from: muppet on December 10, 2010, 03:56:25 PM
Quote from: Hardy on December 10, 2010, 03:40:27 PM
And well said Muppet.

(Did you mean to credit Hound, not Declan?)

Declan's Alkibond post. Generally agree with Hound's though as well.

OK - that was a great one too.

Quote
The only thing is I'm not arguing to lower taxes for high earners. Leave them where they are.

I agree.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on December 10, 2010, 05:41:35 PM
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,733522,00.html (http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,733522,00.html)

The EU Is Pushing Ireland to the Brink of Ruin

I won't post the article but let's just say Lenihan's budget doesn't quite cut it and neither do the 'no bank left behind' or 'kick the can down the road' approaches.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Rossfan on December 10, 2010, 06:09:12 PM
Quote from: Tyrones own on December 10, 2010, 04:00:36 PM
majority of the income tax raised in Ireland. Even if only 20% of them ?

Taking from the willing to work and giving it to the lazy cnuts who won't........
at home and be as well off as opposed to going to work

Meanwhile in your dream world 453,000 jobs are unfilled in the 26 Counties.
Get a grip and talk some sense instead of spouting oul blinkered bullshit.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on December 10, 2010, 06:22:14 PM
Quote from: Tyrones own on December 10, 2010, 04:00:36 PM
Quote from: muppet on December 10, 2010, 03:24:08 PM
Great post Declan.

After FF's disastrous version of populism, leftist populism (screw the 'rich') would bury us for an extra 5 years on top of the depression we will have. Voting for people who prioritise the Public Sector and high taxes is hardly the solution to our problems but Gilmore for example is doing a great job of attracting voters.

Half of all income tax is paid by a low percentage of high earners. It is spin and lies suggesting high earners are somehow not pulling their weight from a tax point of view. From what I see most of those who publicly demand high earners pay even more tax, pay little or no tax themselves.

Either way, the problem for the Dept of Finance is this. Tax the f*ck out of high earners and some of them will move to another jurisdiction. Lots of these people work for foreign outfits in places like the IFSC, Intel, Google etc. Some of them spend lots of time abroad as it is. Remember these people pay the vast majority of the income tax raised in Ireland. Even if only 20% of them moved it would be disastrous for the tax take. Driving them out is not clever.

As for the 'wealth tax' proposal. Let's say it was 1%. Take Michael O'Leary, of whom I make no secret of my loathing. However, if he is worth €500 Million he will have to pay €5 Million a year in wealth tax alone. Does anyone with more than one functional brain cell see that it might be in his interests to take himself and his €500 Million out of the State?

Replacing populist right nonsense with populism left nonsense is not a good idea.
That a boy Muppet... you're coming around more and more everyday  ;D
Taking from the willing to work and giving it to the lazy cnuts who won't
can only have one result and if any of ye entitlement recipients like these
idiots in London can't see that then we'll be down the toilet all the quicker.
Massive welfare cuts are what's necessary across the board... when a man can sit
at home and be as well off as opposed to going to work then something's badly wrong.
Quite simply unsustainable!!

FFS. The whole of Tyrone is a welfare trap.
Without the UK treasury Tyrone and the rest of NI
would be a wasteland.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on December 10, 2010, 07:44:28 PM
Quote from: muppet on December 10, 2010, 03:24:08 PM
Half of all income tax is paid by a low percentage of high earners. It is spin and lies suggesting high earners are somehow not pulling their weight from a tax point of view. From what I see most of those who publicly demand high earners pay even more tax, pay little or no tax themselves.

What'd I like to see is how those high earners make their money, somebody quoted IFSC, New Tech and Pharma companies, I don't really think that high earners in multi-nationals in Ireland would make up the bulk of high earners.
I don't know, but I think we'd be looking at medical professionals, law and accounting partners, bankers, civil servants etc.  And whilst they're well qualified professionals, there are two pertinent questions:

1. How much of their fee income is paid directly by the state, that can be via state legal fees, consultancy, commissioned reports, medical card capitation fees, salary etc.

2. What would these same people earn elsewhere?  Do they actually have the option of leaving?

Maybe there's a case for taxing income derived entirely from internal sources at a higher rate than external?  Maybe, real high income paye employees (most likely the guys in google, facebook, pharma companies) should not be taxed at the same levels as our hospital consultants, our GP's, our law and accounting partners?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on December 10, 2010, 07:48:18 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on December 10, 2010, 07:44:28 PM
Quote from: muppet on December 10, 2010, 03:24:08 PM
Half of all income tax is paid by a low percentage of high earners. It is spin and lies suggesting high earners are somehow not pulling their weight from a tax point of view. From what I see most of those who publicly demand high earners pay even more tax, pay little or no tax themselves.

What'd I like to see is how those high earners make their money, somebody quoted IFSC, New Tech and Pharma companies, I don't really think that high earners in multi-nationals in Ireland would make up the bulk of high earners.
I don't know, but I think we'd be looking at medical professionals, law and accounting partners, bankers, civil servants etc.  And whilst they're well qualified professionals, there are two pertinent questions:

1. How much of their fee income is paid directly by the state, that can be via state legal fees, consultancy, commissioned reports, medical card capitation fees, salary etc.

2. What would these same people earn elsewhere?  Do they actually have the option of leaving?

Maybe there's a case for taxing income derived entirely from internal sources at a higher rate than external?  Maybe, real high income paye employees (most likely the guys in google, facebook, pharma companies) should not be taxed at the same levels as our hospital consultants, our GP's, our law and accounting partners?

Interesting idea. Although the State may end up paying via promissory notes anyway.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on December 10, 2010, 08:58:00 PM
Quote from: seafoid on December 09, 2010, 10:33:03 AM
Quote from: muppet on December 09, 2010, 10:04:12 AM
Quote from: seafoid on December 09, 2010, 10:02:49 AM
Quote from: muppet on December 09, 2010, 09:58:43 AM
Quote from: seafoid on December 09, 2010, 09:22:24 AM
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2010/1209/1224285100507.html

IRISH BANKS repaid €68.8 billion to senior bondholders and €1.4 billion to subordinated bondholders as their full debt fell due under the two-year blanket guarantee which ended in September, Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan has said.
This meant that no bondholder had to share in the €60 billion recapitalisation costs of the domestic banks.
"As is normal practice when bonds mature, they are repaid – in this instance all were senior bonds and all were Government guaranteed. Furthermore, under Irish law senior debt obligations rank equally with deposits and other creditors," said Mr Lenihan.

And receivers of large bonuses evidently.

And under Irish law the NPRF is for the funding of future PS entitlements and not a plaything of the government.

"Keady chuckles at the mere mention of Linnane. "Sylvie used have a great oul' saying in the dressing-room," he smiles. "He'd say: 'Lads, ye'll win nothing if ye haven't a few tinkers in the team.' And we'd say: 'Well, we're delighted to have you anyway Sylvie!'" "

Ireland needs a few tinkers.

Yes but we've enough in the Dáil.

Ones who fight dirty .

Lenihan's quasi legal mumbo jumbo has utterly failed the state. Change the law then FFS.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on December 10, 2010, 08:58:54 PM
This man is on the ball

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=koY6kXhQDQo
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Fear ón Srath Bán on December 10, 2010, 11:18:07 PM
Quote from: Hound on December 10, 2010, 08:14:26 AM
Quote from: Fear ón Srath Bán on December 09, 2010, 11:10:10 PM
Probably the sickest joke in 2010.

Pre-Irish Budget 2010, the Irish Government (Cowen, Lenihan, and the rest of those fcukin wasters) state that "...the pain will be shared".

At that point, the Taoiseach was on thirteen (yep, 13 -- worth it, eh?) times the salary of someone on the minimum wage.

Post-Irish Budget 2010, the durty rotten buffoon of a Biffo will be on FOURTEEN TIMES the salary of someone on the minimum wage.

They're beyond traitors.

The Millionaires' Budget (http://politico.ie/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=7031)

That's a load of bladdy codswallop.
Comparing the minimum wage to the taoiseach's salary? FFS, catch a grip.

And as for the figures of the very high self-employed earners being better off (and let's ignore that they've been hit by previous budgets and they'll be hit hard by the pension relief restrictions, so I doubt there'll be any actually better off) - but if you're self-employed and earning say €250,000 a year, you can be sure you've worked damn hard over a long number of years to get there, and you can be sure you're very good at what you do - plus you're likely to be employing people, and contributing payroll taxes and VAT to the exchequer - not to mention your individual taxes on their own would pay for 10 people on the dole every year, despite the dole being so high in the country.

These people have contributed hugely and are contributing hugely, and yet people want to target these people more, and ignore the thousands who havent contributed a cent in years, if ever

They rob the poor to pay the rich -- how noble.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Tyrones own on December 11, 2010, 01:37:49 AM
Quote from: Rossfan on December 10, 2010, 06:09:12 PM
Quote from: Tyrones own on December 10, 2010, 04:00:36 PM
majority of the income tax raised in Ireland. Even if only 20% of them ?

Taking from the willing to work and giving it to the lazy cnuts who won't........
at home and be as well off as opposed to going to work

Meanwhile in your dream world 453,000 jobs are unfilled in the 26 Counties.
Get a grip and talk some sense instead of spouting oul blinkered bullshit.
What's with the heavily edited quote, a third of which isn't even mine   ???
So let me see if I have this right, the Wholly unsustainable abuse of welfare
has suddenly only become a problem since the shit hit the fan in the past 2 years  ::)

How about the Lazy cnuts that most all of us know in one form or another that never worked
a day in his life just like his Da before him simply because he could whether it be unemployment,
the sick, DLA, depression...FFS the list is endless, Catch a fecking grip will ye while climbing down off
that high horse, Aye and it's me that's blinkered  ::)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Tyrones own on December 11, 2010, 02:01:45 AM
QuoteThey rob the poor to pay the rich -- how noble.
Your quite simply a lost cause to logic... So tax the dung out of these corps/wealthy
who are creating jobs and they then up and leave for the tax incentives elsewhere... then what Fear ???
Though Muppet already explained this :-\
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on December 11, 2010, 11:46:53 AM
So you're saying that the monies generated via a weath tax should be diverted into benefits which people can then use to save their homes?  Does that mean that when the homeowner eventually sells the property, that the state can reclaim the money it has provided to purchase the house?

As you can probably guess I have no problem with people losing title to their homes, if they made a bad purchasing decision then they have to pay the price.  There were no guns held to anybody's head to buy houses.  Yes, people foolishly believed the hype and some unfortunates even believed that the since the bank had vetted them, then, they must be able to afford it, but ultimately, they signed the contract themselves.

On the other hand, I don't want these people to be evicted.  Imo if they receive govt funds that allow them to retain their homes, or if their is some sort of debt forgiveness scheme, these people cannot be allowed to profit in full from the sale of that asset at a later date.  To do otherwise would be inequitable.  Whilst we should have some sympathy for these people now, in twenty years time when they sell up or remortgage in order to buy the new speedboat (the old one was 25 yrs old and sprung a leak) will they be happy to repay their debt to the society that bailed them out?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on December 11, 2010, 11:58:55 AM
Quote from: Zapatista on December 11, 2010, 08:23:09 AM
Quote from: muppet on December 10, 2010, 03:24:08 PM
Great post Declan.

After FF's disastrous version of populism, leftist populism (screw the 'rich') would bury us for an extra 5 years on top of the depression we will have. Voting for people who prioritise the Public Sector and high taxes is hardly the solution to our problems but Gilmore for example is doing a great job of attracting voters.

Half of all income tax is paid by a low percentage of high earners. It is spin and lies suggesting high earners are somehow not pulling their weight from a tax point of view. From what I see most of those who publicly demand high earners pay even more tax, pay little or no tax themselves.

Either way, the problem for the Dept of Finance is this. Tax the f*ck out of high earners and some of them will move to another jurisdiction. Lots of these people work for foreign outfits in places like the IFSC, Intel, Google etc. Some of them spend lots of time abroad as it is. Remember these people pay the vast majority of the income tax raised in Ireland. Even if only 20% of them moved it would be disastrous for the tax take. Driving them out is not clever.

As for the 'wealth tax' proposal. Let's say it was 1%. Take Michael O'Leary, of whom I make no secret of my loathing. However, if he is worth €500 Million he will have to pay €5 Million a year in wealth tax alone. Does anyone with more than one functional brain cell see that it might be in his interests to take himself and his €500 Million out of the State?

Replacing populist right nonsense with populism left nonsense is not a good idea.

Just for you muppet - this is just kicking the can down the road ;)

Introduce the wealth tax and we will see if Michael O'Leary moves out. We have been crying out for leadership and this is a leadership issue. Take them on and take control of the country and f**k them if they don't like it. At the minute our young are moving out by the thousand. That's not worth one Michael O'Leary in my view. I saw some woman on the late late last night who won an award for volunteering. She is worth more to the rebuilding of this country than O'leary will ever be. Typically though. I can't even remember her name. I will be accused of populism here but sometimes a popular idea is a good idea. Yes, there has to be a balance but right now it isn't there.

Calling a wealth tax populist doesn't mean anything, it's just something you said. It is actually ligimate way to raise revenue. It has feck all to do with who is pulling their weight in tax payments but everything to do with who can afford to pay. Dishing out these figures is great on paper but in the real economy it leads to more and more citizens falling into the poverty trap. The alternative could be - don't tax O'Leary another 500m and see 20 more families lose their homes. Take a chance on the wealth tax and have these peopple keep their homes. If it doesn't work then so be it. Boys like O'Leary will come and go. If he runs on the COuntry and the people who made him rich then we're better off shot of him. If you lend someone a score and never see them again it's money well spent. A wealth tax will lead to the rich putting a bigger slice into the country and people that made them rich. Cutting welfare will lead these people to or below the bread line. Populist? Maybe. Wrong? No.

If we keep cutting it will become like Lenihans new 90% bonus tax. THere will be nothing there to tax other than the wealth.

There are two basic routes the Left could take.

a) do anything to get at least 300,000 people working in sustainable employment using ideas and ingenuity I'm afraid I don't have the smarts to offer here;
b) get someone else to pay for it.

Sinn Fein are choosing the easy (populist) option. It will only succeed in burying a country that you are trying to keep alive.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Fear ón Srath Bán on December 11, 2010, 12:53:19 PM
Quote from: Tyrones own on December 11, 2010, 02:01:45 AM
QuoteThey rob the poor to pay the rich -- how noble.
Your quite simply a lost cause to logic... So tax the dung out of these corps/wealthy
who are creating jobs and they then up and leave for the tax incentives elsewhere... then what Fear ???
Though Muppet already explained this :-\

You're quite simply putting words in my mouth.

My basic point was (despite Hound's Friedmanesque and irrelevant rant) that someone in the most elevated of public political positions had a chance, at least ostensibly, to demonstrate a nominal narrowing of the gap between the rich and poor in this state. So instead of grasping that opportunity the twat (Cowen) actually exacerbated his own personal gap, a gap that was entirely within his own control (uniquely). And there's any amount of evidence to support the assertion that the most unequal states are the most troublesome.

He could have led by example, instead he just buried his snout deeper in the stinking trough.

But that is entirely symptomatic, entirely reflective, of the general malaise that afflicts this sorry state: when faced with a choice between doing the right thing and the wrong thing those in a position of political power chose the latter, again.

And a budget that leaves millionaires better off and the poorest in society worse off is criminal -- where did I say anything about taxing anyone to the hilt? All I would ask for there is that the most wealthy would not be left better fecking off as a result of this scandalous budget, and that they most certainly are.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Lar Naparka on December 11, 2010, 01:29:59 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on December 11, 2010, 11:46:53 AM
So you're saying that the monies generated via a weath tax should be diverted into benefits which people can then use to save their homes?  Does that mean that when the homeowner eventually sells the property, that the state can reclaim the money it has provided to purchase the house?

As you can probably guess I have no problem with people losing title to their homes, if they made a bad purchasing decision then they have to pay the price.  There were no guns held to anybody's head to buy houses.  Yes, people foolishly believed the hype and some unfortunates even believed that the since the bank had vetted them, then, they must be able to afford it, but ultimately, they signed the contract themselves.

On the other hand, I don't want these people to be evicted.  Imo if they receive govt funds that allow them to retain their homes, or if their is some sort of debt forgiveness scheme, these people cannot be allowed to profit in full from the sale of that asset at a later date.  To do otherwise would be inequitable.  Whilst we should have some sympathy for these people now, in twenty years time when they sell up or remortgage in order to buy the new speedboat (the old one was 25 yrs old and sprung a leak) will they be happy to repay their debt to the society that bailed them out?

I can accept that your proposals have merit but I suggest the same rationale should apply too the banks and other financial who borrowed vast amounts also. They borrowed recklessly in order to lend recklessly—IMO, they are the real culprits. In doing this, they were aided and abetted by selling agencies and by the government. Bertie made the statement that 'the boom just got boomier' and house buyers were encouraged to apply for mortgages of up to 120% the buying price of the houses in question. In plain terms, people were being encouraged by 'experts' they trusted to go buy a pig in a poke. Vetting procedures were very lax in the case of house buyers and, more importantly, in the case of the banks and others who borrowed money on the international markets.
Opinion is growing the govt. is going to have to renege on the guaranteed they gave to the gobshites who borrowed this money and which the taxpayers will have to pay back. Reneging on our commitments will have serious consequences as our international credit will nosedive and will, in all likelihood, this will bring more harm than good.
I think renegotiating the terms of those contracts is the only practical solution.
The same should apply to defaulting mortgage holders.
Putting large numbers of repossessed houses on the already depressed house market would cause our economy to go belly up without a doubt. Irish people don't take kindly to the prospect of evictions and of grabbers moving in over the heads of those thrown on the roadside and, hopefully, would be met with organised resistance from all sectors of the community. We have had enough evictions in our past to keep us on our toes for eternity.
Renegotiating mortgage terms on a mass scale won't cure our present problems but it certainly won't make them worse.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on December 11, 2010, 02:24:34 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on December 11, 2010, 01:05:08 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on December 11, 2010, 11:46:53 AM
So you're saying that the monies generated via a weath tax should be diverted into benefits which people can then use to save their homes?  Does that mean that when the homeowner eventually sells the property, that the state can reclaim the money it has provided to purchase the house?

As you can probably guess I have no problem with people losing title to their homes, if they made a bad purchasing decision then they have to pay the price.  There were no guns held to anybody's head to buy houses.  Yes, people foolishly believed the hype and some unfortunates even believed that the since the bank had vetted them, then, they must be able to afford it, but ultimately, they signed the contract themselves.

On the other hand, I don't want these people to be evicted.  Imo if they receive govt funds that allow them to retain their homes, or if their is some sort of debt forgiveness scheme, these people cannot be allowed to profit in full from the sale of that asset at a later date.  To do otherwise would be inequitable.  Whilst we should have some sympathy for these people now, in twenty years time when they sell up or remortgage in order to buy the new speedboat (the old one was 25 yrs old and sprung a leak) will they be happy to repay their debt to the society that bailed them out?

Good points. I was only using it as an example. If people get help for their homes then by no means should they profit. The same should be applied across the board though and not just to those struggling with personal debt.

Nobody put a gun to the head of the bond holders or the ECB to fill the banks with cash. It's a bad investment and they should take some pain. If we are to pay back anyone who made a bad investment in Irish banks then they should not profit from it either. The people facing eviction for making bad investments on their homes are the same people paying out for those who made the bad investments in the banks/Irish property at a profit.


QuoteThere are two basic routes the Left could take.

a) do anything to get at least 300,000 people working in sustainable employment using ideas and ingenuity I'm afraid I don't have the smarts to offer here;
b) get someone else to pay for it.

Sinn Fein are choosing the easy (populist) option. It will only succeed in burying a country that you are trying to keep alive.

Thought we were talking about Labour? Tax incentives didn't bring us much luck in many sectors.

I'm not trying to keep this coutry alive. This is not the Country I want it's just the one I have.

Now we are more likely to agree in this area. Most of the property related tax incentives should be phased out. Those that can be should be abolished altogether. Doing it too quickly though will bankrupt some individuals creating more toxic bank debt, which the State will have to pick up the tab for. But in the long run the plan should be to remove them never to be seen again.

Other tax shelters that purely benefit the wealthy should be examined with a view to scrapping them too. Some incentives obviously do stimulate the economy and are beneficial to all of us but there are many example of Ministers introducing tax breaks that seem to only benefit certain people. Here is a good example introduced by Bertie: http://thestory.ie/2010/02/07/the-closure-of-one-mans-tax-relief/ (http://thestory.ie/2010/02/07/the-closure-of-one-mans-tax-relief/)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bennydorano on December 11, 2010, 03:56:33 PM
Quote from: muppet on December 11, 2010, 11:58:55 AM
Quote from: Zapatista on December 11, 2010, 08:23:09 AM
Quote from: muppet on December 10, 2010, 03:24:08 PM
Great post Declan.

After FF's disastrous version of populism, leftist populism (screw the 'rich') would bury us for an extra 5 years on top of the depression we will have. Voting for people who prioritise the Public Sector and high taxes is hardly the solution to our problems but Gilmore for example is doing a great job of attracting voters.

Half of all income tax is paid by a low percentage of high earners. It is spin and lies suggesting high earners are somehow not pulling their weight from a tax point of view. From what I see most of those who publicly demand high earners pay even more tax, pay little or no tax themselves.

Either way, the problem for the Dept of Finance is this. Tax the f*ck out of high earners and some of them will move to another jurisdiction. Lots of these people work for foreign outfits in places like the IFSC, Intel, Google etc. Some of them spend lots of time abroad as it is. Remember these people pay the vast majority of the income tax raised in Ireland. Even if only 20% of them moved it would be disastrous for the tax take. Driving them out is not clever.

As for the 'wealth tax' proposal. Let's say it was 1%. Take Michael O'Leary, of whom I make no secret of my loathing. However, if he is worth €500 Million he will have to pay €5 Million a year in wealth tax alone. Does anyone with more than one functional brain cell see that it might be in his interests to take himself and his €500 Million out of the State?

Replacing populist right nonsense with populism left nonsense is not a good idea.

Just for you muppet - this is just kicking the can down the road ;)

Introduce the wealth tax and we will see if Michael O'Leary moves out. We have been crying out for leadership and this is a leadership issue. Take them on and take control of the country and f**k them if they don't like it. At the minute our young are moving out by the thousand. That's not worth one Michael O'Leary in my view. I saw some woman on the late late last night who won an award for volunteering. She is worth more to the rebuilding of this country than O'leary will ever be. Typically though. I can't even remember her name. I will be accused of populism here but sometimes a popular idea is a good idea. Yes, there has to be a balance but right now it isn't there.

Calling a wealth tax populist doesn't mean anything, it's just something you said. It is actually ligimate way to raise revenue. It has feck all to do with who is pulling their weight in tax payments but everything to do with who can afford to pay. Dishing out these figures is great on paper but in the real economy it leads to more and more citizens falling into the poverty trap. The alternative could be - don't tax O'Leary another 500m and see 20 more families lose their homes. Take a chance on the wealth tax and have these peopple keep their homes. If it doesn't work then so be it. Boys like O'Leary will come and go. If he runs on the COuntry and the people who made him rich then we're better off shot of him. If you lend someone a score and never see them again it's money well spent. A wealth tax will lead to the rich putting a bigger slice into the country and people that made them rich. Cutting welfare will lead these people to or below the bread line. Populist? Maybe. Wrong? No.

If we keep cutting it will become like Lenihans new 90% bonus tax. THere will be nothing there to tax other than the wealth.

There are two basic routes the Left could take.

a) do anything to get at least 300,000 people working in sustainable employment using ideas and ingenuity I'm afraid I don't have the smarts to offer here;
b) get someone else to pay for it.

Sinn Fein are choosing the easy (populist) option. It will only succeed in burying a country that you are trying to keep alive.
SF haven't an Economic clue, if they get into power in any shape or form in ROI, the country will be way worse of.  NI is perfect for their gobshitery, they can spout all the nonsense they want knowing very few will desert them and their 'economic' ideas matter little as they are administering a glorified council with little real power to change/implement anything.  The SDLP are just as bad, the UUP are irrelevant, and as much as it pains me to say it, the only ones who seem to deal in financial realities up north are the Dupes.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on December 11, 2010, 09:02:57 PM
Without doubt all of those who benefited from the state's recent generosity should have to pay that back when the time comes.  As far as the banks go, since we effectively own them, if they survive to recover, we should be able to benefit in terms of dividends and profits from the sale of shares (if we ever decide that they should be allowed loose again).

I have been saying for more than 2 years now that the bondholders should have been allowed to take the pain that the supposedly free market would have dished out to them, unfortunately that didn't happen, but a renegotiation/restructuring of what's left will happen.

I'd agree that a renegotiation of personal debts may have to happen too, but we have to make sure that the state gets payback for that. 

One last point on tax incentives, imo they can be extremely important tools, but they have to imaginatively constructed.  The problem the last time around was that successive finance minsters and dept. personnel saw the revenues raised through the ongoing schemes and decided that they must be a good thing, without bothering to think about what was actually being made, holiday homes and hotels where there weren't any before, not usually a good thing, and in there thousands, ffs...

Tax incentives should be constructed at areas that will provide employment from export or the creation of something we need in this country, for example decent schools, energy infrastructure and generation. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: highball on December 11, 2010, 10:20:27 PM
This talk of wealth tax and the example use, Michael  O'Leary, is typical BS and Irish begrudgery from people that don't have a clue how to plot a way out of this mess.  We talk of a "Smart Economy" and it being one way to get out of here but still you want to tax the crap out of people that start companies from scratch into a profitable $9B euro company that employs more than 7K people (OK, all not in Ireland), so what incentive is that for someone that may have an idea for the next company to employ people? O'Leary is paid 240K Euro per year, yeah sure he's not short a bob but it was his hard work that got himself there. Now you want to tax the crap out of him and others to pay for some jackass that sitting on the dole for the past 20 years! On that wage he probably already pays 100K plus in tax, more than most I hasten to guess. He's been critical of the Government all through the boom, as any good business man would be. Comments like "we'd be better off shot of him" and "we're people that made him rich" are complete nonsense. There are countless homes better off because of men/women like him, by generating good jobs etc.
There are countless more "O'Leary" types out there so your solution is to tax these Patriots out of the country, great strategy. We can see how well the country is going being run by people that have no business sense, vision or strategy.
Now if you take the state and semi-state companies like ESB, RTE etc. it's a different story. These people are overpaid and underperforming, Padraig McManus the head of ESB on 750K per year – remember you pay his wage in your ESB bill each month. What has a clown like that done over the past 15 years except help raise the average wage in the ESB to 75K/y, but the people on the street pay his way. Similar with Pat Kenny and the likes in RTE. Having to pay a TV license even if you never watch a min of RTE during the year – nuts. Let them be business run to make a profit without government help and people propping them up. All these lads need to be brought back down to earth, where's Jack O'Connor and his benchmarking and partnership these days. Another one that has put us where we are today.
While I'm at it, where's CAB these days? What about all the developers that still wander around untouched while their development in a overpaid for field lies unfinished. Not one person has been put in jail for this mess the Bankers/Builders/Government have the country. Yet, the US authorities are the ones putting the squeeze on Drumm from Anglo. It'd be better to recoup some funds this way rather than taxing the innovators and legitimate business leaders in the private sector. Tax them and there no way out for this country except through Berlin!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on December 12, 2010, 07:42:23 AM
The primary purpose of taxes is to raise money to run government programs and services. They might have secondary aims of restricting certain business practices, products or services.

A wealth tax will not raise more money for the state because it ignores the fact that " wealthy" people can move out of the state (or may already be non-resident) . It also ignores the truth that great wealth is seldom held by individuals but is hidden behind trust and corporate structures. 

You can tax some of the badges of wealth - property is immovable and a property tax will be collected no matter the residence or nature of the owner. The costs of collection are low after set up of the initial database . The state also needs to sort out its own supply chain - the professions and medical suppliers have been getting wealthy on the back of protected positions.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Lar Naparka on December 12, 2010, 03:54:54 PM
I'm quite puzzled by the fact that the Government hasn't considered the possibility of raising money from internal sources.
Surely, it should be possible to issue special savings bond for sale to the general public—somewhat along the lines of War Bonds, which has been used by Britain, the US and other countries in times of war?
People buying the bonds would in effect loan the government money at an interest rate below those on international markets. The bonds would be redeemable at some future date at face value.
The money realised would help generate some or all of the capital we need now to keep Ireland Ltd. going.  Patriotic sentiments would help offset the low interest returns and the investments would be safe and involve little risk—unlike the gambles taken by the banking gobshites who got us into this mess in the first place. Regular lottery draws could be held as an added attraction along the lines of the Irish Hospital Sweepstakes.
Maybe I'm missing something- I don't claim to be a high finance expert but neither can Messrs Cowan, Lenihan and the rest of that sorry lot.
Does anyone else think savings bonds would be a good idea?

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: comethekingdom on December 12, 2010, 03:59:35 PM
Would anyone of sound mind lend to these muppets/donkeys? I for one , wouldn't!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Fear ón Srath Bán on December 12, 2010, 04:05:13 PM
Quote from: Lar Naparka on December 12, 2010, 03:54:54 PM
I'm quite puzzled by the fact that the Government hasn't considered the possibility of raising money from internal sources.
...

I believe they have already Lar: NTMA (http://www.ntma.ie/home.php)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on December 12, 2010, 04:30:01 PM
Quote from: Fear ón Srath Bán on December 12, 2010, 04:05:13 PM
Quote from: Lar Naparka on December 12, 2010, 03:54:54 PM
I'm quite puzzled by the fact that the Government hasn't considered the possibility of raising money from internal sources.
...

I believe they have already Lar: NTMA (http://www.ntma.ie/home.php)

http://www.eamonocuiv.ie/en/news/press-releases/171-o-cuiv-new-investment-initiative-for-irish-pension-schemes-to-be-made-available-in-january-2011- (http://www.eamonocuiv.ie/en/news/press-releases/171-o-cuiv-new-investment-initiative-for-irish-pension-schemes-to-be-made-available-in-january-2011-)

It can be argued that the above farce is along the same lines.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on December 12, 2010, 04:51:58 PM
Quote from: Lar Naparka on December 12, 2010, 03:54:54 PMPatriotic sentiments would help offset the low interest returns and the investments would be safe and involve little risk—unlike the gambles taken by the banking gobshites who got us into this mess in the first place.
I think the key word there is 'safe', given that people are moving their savings from irish banks which are of course guaranteed by the govt, you can see the problem.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on December 13, 2010, 02:37:10 PM
Irish Times 16 April 2006

President McAleese did a good's day's work on Thursday last when she visited the town of Haslingden near Manchester, where Michael Davitt spent 20 years of his life after his family emigrated there from Mayo in 1851. This year is the 160th anniversary of Davitt's birth in 1846 and the centenary of his death in 1906. Over his 60 year life he was successively a Fenian, founder of the Land League, prime creator with Parnell of the New Departure in 1879-81 which brought together advanced nationalists, the land agitation and parliamentary struggle and in his later life a tireless parliamentary reformer, labour activist, internationalist, journalist and historian.

Davitt was well described by his biographer, the late Prof. T.W. Moody, in the following terms: "He shed no man's blood. He was the best loved and most trusted of all the national chiefs of his day. His work for British and Irish Labour has never been recognised. All men, especially Irishmen, have reason to honour his memory." Davitt's role was obscured in independent Ireland by his untimely death, his opposition to political violence, his break with the IRB in the early 1880s and with Parnell in 1890-1 and the lingering suspicion of his radicalism among conservative secular and clerical leaders.

He is just as well worth commemorating this year as the leaders of the 1916 Rising. President McAleese vividly recalled the hardship endured by the Davitt family when they arrived in Haslingden after being evicted from their tenant farm. This plebeian background coloured his whole life and attitudes, from the time he lost his arm in a cotton mill at the age of 11, through his enthusiastic self-education in his teenage years, his involvement in the Fenian movement during the 1860s, his imprisonment on arms charges in the 1870s, to his remarkable involvement in the Land League agitation from 1879. The techniques of social struggle he helped invent then - rent strikes, passive resistance, the "boycott" of landlords and their agents, social ostracism - became part of the repertoire of social change throughout the world over the next century, influencing Gandhi and many others.

Davitt wanted to see the famous Land League slogan - "The land of Ireland for the people of Ireland" - expressed through land nationalisation, not peasant proprietorship. That was not to be, as he soon realised. His very success guaranteed that the subsequent national revolutionary movement initiated in 1916 took place within a framework of social conservatism laid down by the land revolution of the previous generation. This historical irony should not obscure Davitt's enduring appeal as a towering figure in the Irish people's search for freedom

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on December 13, 2010, 04:21:11 PM
Can Ff win the vote if Mattie McGrath goes against and FG and the opposition do too? 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Capt Pat on December 14, 2010, 01:31:47 PM
Didnt Cardiff get promoted for his efforts?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/dec/13/wikileaks-ireland-banks-optimistic?INTCMP=SRCH

The US was concerned as long as ago as October 2008 that Ireland did not have a grip on its crippled banks, according to a confidential cable from its Dublin embassy released by WikiLeaks.

Following a meeting with Irish regulators a few days after the government stepped in to guarantee all deposits in Irish banks at the end of September 2008, Washington's economic adviser in the Dublin embassy warned that Ireland may be "a bit optimistic" about the financial sector's prospects.

A splurge of lending to property companies before the credit crunch has left Ireland's banks on their knees and forced Dublin to accept a €85bn (£72bn) bailout from the International Monetary Fund and its European Union partners. The embattled government has forced through austerity measures to cut €15bn (£13bn) from the Irish budget deficit in the next three years to appease its rescuers.

Some €30bn (£25bn) had been ploughed into Ireland's financial system even before the IMF-EU rescue package, which provided up to another €30bn to prop up the banks. Even so, in early October 2008 Irish officials were insisting to the US embassy that they did not foresee any need for a government bailout of the banks and blamed "herd mentality" based on "rumour and innuendo" for creating the need for the blanket guarantee of deposits.

The US economic adviser was left wondering whether Dublin had a grip on the crisis after the meeting with officials from the central bank of Ireland and the regulator. Remarks by one of the regulatory officials, Billy Clarke, are recorded in the cable. "Explaining the seemingly sudden pressure on Irish banks last week, he said a 'perfect storm' of external events related to the credit crisis had dried up the traditional sources of financing for financial institutions," the cable said.

"[Gordon] Barham maintained that the level of impaired assets in the system stood at between 0.5 and 0.8% and these are mostly confined to loans to commercial property developers. When pressed, Barham said the media had exaggerated the level of problem assets and those that existed could be managed."

Kevin Cardiff, secretary general at Ireland's department of finance, echoed the regulator's views. "[Cardiff] pointed out that auditors contracted by his department to look at the books of at least two of the institutions under pressure came away with a 'favourable impression of the loan books'," the cable said. "While he admitted that the amount of 'speculative loans or those that are not currently product is not insignificant', he stressed that all involved in putting together the package were confident that government would not be forced to bail out the banks."

Cardiff had added: "The genesis of this [the deposit guarantee] was classic 'herd mentality' based mostly on rumour and innuendo about Irish banks rather than any hard facts."

The US adviser concludes that the Irish authorities will have their "work cut out" to rebuild the financial sector. "Against the background of the steep slump in the property market and anecdotal evidence we have picked up, it may be that government officials are being a bit optimistic in their assessment of the level impaired assets. It begs the question: if the level of impaired assets is not a problem, why the sudden pressure on Irish banks?"

I have seen the phrase used before, a perfect strom of external factors caused the Irish economy to crash. This is just not true. It was a perfect storm of internal factors that caused the Irish economy to crash. Bertie, Ahern, Charlie McCreevy, Mary Harney and the PDs, Sean Fitzpatrick, Brian Cowan, Anglo Iriash Bank, McNamara, O'Carroll, Sean Dunne and all the other developers, Bank of Ireland, Allied Irish Bank. The golden circles, the club houses, the demented Ahern who used the country and the political system to get elected and play a game of I'm king of the castle while trashing the economy.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on December 14, 2010, 02:52:39 PM
Quote from: Capt Pat on December 14, 2010, 01:31:47 PM
The US economic adviser was left wondering whether Dublin had a grip on the crisis after the meeting with officials from the central bank of Ireland and the regulator. Remarks by one of the regulatory officials, Billy Clarke, are recorded in the cable. "Explaining the seemingly sudden pressure on Irish banks last week, he said a 'perfect storm' of external events related to the credit crisis had dried up the traditional sources of financing for financial institutions," the cable said.

"[Gordon] Barham maintained that the level of impaired assets in the system stood at between 0.5 and 0.8% and these are mostly confined to loans to commercial property developers. When pressed, Barham said the media had exaggerated the level of problem assets and those that existed could be managed."

Kevin Cardiff, secretary general at Ireland's department of finance, echoed the regulator's views. "[Cardiff] pointed out that auditors contracted by his department to look at the books of at least two of the institutions under pressure came away with a 'favourable impression of the loan books'," the cable said. "While he admitted that the amount of 'speculative loans or those that are not currently product is not insignificant', he stressed that all involved in putting together the package were confident that government would not be forced to bail out the banks."

Cardiff had added: "The genesis of this [the deposit guarantee] was classic 'herd mentality' based mostly on rumour and innuendo about Irish banks rather than any hard facts."


How does this reconcile with this:

Quote
Asked whether balls had been dropped in the Department of Finance, Mr Lenihan said he "had an extraordinary cadre of hardworking individuals" working for him with a huge amount of work to deal with.

He denied they were overworked.

"The department is very conscious of the need to review itself and reform itself. The current secretary general initiated a process this year where an external consultancy group has been examining its work and compiling a report on it," he said.

He said the report was nearing completion and had identified failings which would lead to a restructuring of the department and how it carried out its work.

According to Mr Lenihan, the report identified two particular processes that had caused enormous damage to the Irish financial system. They are unsustainable financial promises given by political parties in the run-up to elections and the dominance of the social partnership process.

I don't know how much more I can listen to Lenno, I realy wish he would just quit, the sooner the better.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on December 14, 2010, 03:04:02 PM
I agree, Bogball.  Lenihan has to go. But so too do the Department of finance muppets. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Fear ón Srath Bán on December 14, 2010, 03:26:25 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on December 14, 2010, 02:52:39 PM
I don't know how much more I can listen to Lenno, I realy wish he would just quit, the sooner the better.

And his tweedledee, Kevin Cardiff.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on December 14, 2010, 03:55:12 PM
Quote from: Fear ón Srath Bán on December 14, 2010, 03:26:25 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on December 14, 2010, 02:52:39 PM
I don't know how much more I can listen to Lenno, I realy wish he would just quit, the sooner the better.

And his tweedledee, Kevin Cardiff.

Agree, I think departmental officials are at least as culpable as the minister.  But at least we don't have to listen them constantly pontificating utter lies and baseless rubbish.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: lynchbhoy on December 15, 2010, 09:54:14 AM
thats the problem fellas, the gov may change and an equally useless maybe even a good minister of finance comes in - but the faceless bureaucrats in the dept of finance will remain, on top dollar and without having to ever break a sweat.

Obv the gov couldnt countenance a second budget with big swipes at the public sector, but the next and only measure in order to reduce costs for Ireland inc. is to cut pubic sector wages and jobs, as there are way too many people employed by public sector for the amount of work being/to be done - and they get far too much. Maybe the lower paid are not overpaid, but there are too many of them. the higher ranks have too many but they are overpaid.

I also think shifting the blame to innovators and to the ex pats etc is taking the p**s.
the probems are more local and can really drag us out of the mire if cuts effected. Starting with all higher paid public sector/semi state employees/chiefs.
imo
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on December 15, 2010, 10:13:06 AM
I've been in correspondence with my TDs asking them to vote against the bill today. Only one has replied and he is an FFer who is parroting the party line. I  have exchanged 4 emails with him but it's blindingly obvious that he has no grasp of the wider situation whatsoever. The insular looking and nonsensical elements of his replies to me are truly scary. He actually stated that all the decisions the government have taken since 2008 haver been right!!!

Jaysus even George Soros that nice woolly liberal said this morning that "The authorities are making at least two mistakes. One is that they are determined to avoid defaults or haircuts on currently outstanding sovereign debt for fear of provoking a banking crisis. The bondholders of insolvent banks are being protected at the expense of taxpayers. This is politically unacceptable. A new Irish government to be elected next spring is bound to repudiate the current arrangements. Markets recognise this and that is why the Irish rescue brought no relief."

I truly despair for our country
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on December 15, 2010, 10:51:52 AM
QuoteName and shame all 4.
I'm in Meath East constituency Zap so the current 3 TDs are Thomas Byrne FF, Mary Wallace FF and Shane McEntee FG.
Thomas Byrne is the only one to respond
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: armaghniac on December 15, 2010, 12:22:08 PM
QuoteMaybe the lower paid are not overpaid, but there are too many of them. the higher ranks have too many but they are overpaid.

This is the kind of simplistic statement that everyone comes out with and which illustrates the hopeless fact free nature of the current debate. All analysis by the ESRI etc has shown that any difference between public and private was greatest at low levels. The higher levels had a much smaller pay gap and have had bigger cuts. Now at the very top they have had big pay without any of the actual responsibility for getting things done that they might have had in the private sector, but it might be better to increase their performance rather than reduce the pay.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: whiskeysteve on December 15, 2010, 01:07:44 PM
Just reading from a few sources (e.g. constantin gurdgiev) that if Ireland defaults the Eurozone will default en masse.

Hence Ireland are being threatened with serious political repercussions vis a ve trade agreements etc behind the scenes if they dont play the bailout game.

What possible threats towards Ireland could have been made to the 2 Brians that the public mightn't appreciate?

Do the 2 brians and their cronies have every intention of defaulting but are holding out for someone else like Portugal to take the plunge 1st so they cannot be blamed for the wider collapse when it is triggered by someone else?

The more I follow whats happening the more it seems the US is on a runaway train toward financial collapse, so I guess a global great depression is coming this decade.

Get yerself a cabbage patch out the back and a lock a chickens. Also stock up on Ray Mears DVDs. Oh and a decent air rifle to catch game
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on December 15, 2010, 01:27:53 PM
QuoteWhat possible threats towards Ireland could have been made to the 2 Brians that the public mightn't appreciate?

None that we can't appreciate. Everyone knows the game that is being played except we have muppets who can't play 25 never mind poker

Update: Shane McEntee FG has replied to say he'll be voting against. Still can't convince Mr Byrne who has also expressed full confidence in Mr Cowen  and Mr Lenihan (but who conveniently forgot to put his party's logo on his Christmas Greeting in the local paper yesterday!)  and no reply from Ms Wallace
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Rossfan on December 15, 2010, 04:23:05 PM
Quote from: lynchbhoy on December 15, 2010, 09:54:14 AM

, but the next and only measure in order to reduce costs for Ireland inc. is to cut pubic sector wages and jobs.........

And all the public service workers who lose their jobs under the Lynchboy Recovery plan  ::) will obviously all vanish into thin air and not need any unemployment benefits or hospitals or schools for their kids.
They will also abandon their houses and mortgagaes as they vanish into the Lynchboysphere.
Meanwhile the schools , hospitals, fire stations, Dole offices,  etc etc will be closed.

Stop borrowing mony to pay the private debts of private banks .... that will save the State € 45,000,000,000 in further borrowings while they can offer the NAMA lands and assets as payment for the €55,000,000,000 already borrowed as a result of the Banks reckless greedy stupid pyramid scheme property bubble borrowings.

Time for the Capitalist word to come up with some new innoivative ideas instead of trying to patch up the failed Reaganthatcherist neo liberal globalisation nonsense we've had to endure since 1980.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on December 15, 2010, 04:36:44 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on December 15, 2010, 09:16:21 AM
Quote from: muppet on September 28, 2008, 11:36:36 PM
It is strange times when the extreme right wing government, in the home of the free market, are proposing to effectively nationalise a huge part of the financial industry.

This proposal will attempt to fix the problem from the top down (save the wealthy bankers) rather than from the bottom up (buy out those who have lost their homes) , but that would be asking too much from the Republicans.

If this plan doesn't go through there are experts who think the dollar will go like some Latin American currencies have done. That would mean hyper inflation and rocketing interest rates. This could be only a matter of weeks away.

The danger of Iran or some one else (Putin will feel like slapping Bush after Georgia) trading their oil in Euros is not being mentioned much as the consequences for the US economy (and our own) are to disastrous to even think about.

What no one is contemplating is what happens if the Big Bailout doesn't work?

Any update on the opening post Muppet?

That was really about the US Bank Bailout. That appears to have worked (at the moment) while the EU one hasn't.

The difference seems to be that the States did it all in one go, ignoring the egos in the way and force feeding medicine to institutions it decided needed it. Compare that with first AIB and BOI claiming they didn't need funding, then Greece and Ireland denying they needed assistance. Now Portugal and Spain are in the same boat.

The banks in the Euro should have been put under ECB control. They could decide who sank or swam, or to bail them all out in one go, like the Fed did. Ironically the Fed did socialism better than the EU.

Instead we have the EU standing waiting beside the next domino, waiting to see if it will fall, then trying to catch it before it sets off the next one. It isn't working.



Somewhere on this thread the question was asked (which the media never seem to ask): what if the Bank Guarantee doesn't work?

The answer was NAMA.

Same question: (anyone seen it in the media?) What if NAMA doesn't work?

Answer: IMF/EU bailout and serious austerity measure.

And now we are at the same question again: What if...............?

As usual we have Lenihan berating people who raise the issue of default in any way. We never learn.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: lynchbhoy on December 15, 2010, 04:47:30 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on December 15, 2010, 04:23:05 PM
Quote from: lynchbhoy on December 15, 2010, 09:54:14 AM
, but the next and only measure in order to reduce costs for Ireland inc. is to cut pubic sector wages and jobs.........
And all the public service workers who lose their jobs under the Lynchboy Recovery plan  ::) will obviously all vanish into thin air and not need any unemployment benefits or hospitals or schools for their kids.
They will also abandon their houses and mortgagaes as they vanish into the Lynchboysphere.
Meanwhile the schools , hospitals, fire stations, Dole offices,  etc etc will be closed.

Stop borrowing mony to pay the private debts of private banks .... that will save the State € 45,000,000,000 in further borrowings while they can offer the NAMA lands and assets as payment for the €55,000,000,000 already borrowed as a result of the Banks reckless greedy stupid pyramid scheme property bubble borrowings.

Time for the Capitalist word to come up with some new innoivative ideas instead of trying to patch up the failed Reaganthatcherist neo liberal globalisation nonsense we've had to endure since 1980.
yes they might be on the dole, but then again there are plenty of jobs out there in certain sectors in this country (IT for example).
its more likely that these public sector people posess an education and are employable - unlike the construction guys - hey will remain unemployed !!
I have seen first hand civilservice and public sector people- not working and not having to work.
Even if it means they are on the dole by being made redundant, does it make it right that these people are employed to do the square root of f**k all?
The only case that can be made for them is that be being employed, they will keep money circulating in the local economy.
Still there should be a cull and people put on notice that they have 12 months to find an alternative job.
Not just the lower ranks - and I said 'maybe' earlier when saying that they might not be over paid, but there are def way too many on or around €100k that do fcuk all for a job.
Thats from first hand experience !!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Rossfan on December 15, 2010, 05:45:39 PM
Reducing the number of people employed in the Public Service, thereby reducing the number at work and increasing the number unemployed WILL NOT solve the problems the Irish State has got itself into due to the BertieCharlieHarneyBuilderBanker let it rip Economic style of the 1997 to 2007 era.

If Lynchboy can get Hospital Consultants for less than €100,000 ...  :o ::)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: lynchbhoy on December 16, 2010, 01:32:41 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on December 15, 2010, 05:45:39 PM
Reducing the number of people employed in the Public Service, thereby reducing the number at work and increasing the number unemployed WILL NOT solve the problems the Irish State has got itself into due to the BertieCharlieHarneyBuilderBanker let it rip Economic style of the 1997 to 2007 era.

If Lynchboy can get Hospital Consultants for less than €100,000 ...  :o ::)
it might not cure the whole problem, but no one measure will !!!!

it is going to take a lot of root and branch review of all public sector by some impartial third party (someone decent not the elongation merchants like pwc who go in, take as long as they can , bring in as many colleagues as they can and in the end write a report that just sits on the fence) who if they are allowed will point out the elephants in the room and problems with overstaffing, double jobbing, skewed 'benchmarking' in salaries and point out what realistic salaray range these guys SHOULD be on etc etc
Pensions of the public sector should also be turned from Defined benefit to PRSA or Defined contribution.

Th eprice of hospital consultants is also not the problem, its when these guys are paid the big salary by state and they also have a private practice. There has to be regulation that they can only be one or the other and that each hospital has to appoint these rather than the rush for consultants to share practisces in hospitals clinics etc as well as being part time consultants for hosptials -which they are supposed to be full time and is another reason why waiting lists are too long as the hoors dedicate more time to lucrative private practice.This we can understand this greed, legislation should dictate they will have to do one or the other.But its not the consultants that are the biggest cost. its the plethora of pen pushers that have never been culled with the merger of health boards etc. Too many people for half the amount of jobs.

With proper cost controls at all levels and areas in public sector, Proper housekeeping, policies, procedures and efficient staff and the correct number of staff with defined roled and job specs - the public sector will be streamlined, efficient and do what its meant to.

We can cull these jobs gradually. As I said before there are plenty of jobs out there for various educated or trained people. There shouldnt be too much of an increase on the unemployment figures, but if there is so what. The cole costs us less than a large salaried pen pusher that is doing the same job as possibly two others !!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: lynchbhoy on December 16, 2010, 01:33:53 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on December 15, 2010, 05:45:39 PM
Reducing the number of people employed in the Public Service, thereby reducing the number at work and increasing the number unemployed WILL NOT solve the problems the Irish State has got itself into due to the BertieCharlieHarneyBuilderBanker let it rip Economic style of the 1997 to 2007 era.

If Lynchboy can get Hospital Consultants for less than €100,000 ...  :o ::)
the bank thing has to be attacked and I am not sure of the best way to do this...
...sell them off inc their debt ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on December 16, 2010, 11:19:09 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on December 15, 2010, 05:45:39 PMIf Lynchboy can get Hospital Consultants for less than €100,000 ...  :o ::)
In the UK hospital consultants earn between Stg 76K and 95K.  In Germany, I think the number is around the €70K mark, Italian consultants earn approx €60K.  Not sure on the rest, but I am pretty certain that their job does not allow them to spend a maximum of 30% of their paid time seeing private patients.

But as I've said a pile of times on here, don't get rid of the public servants, slash their wages to sustainable levels and allocate them to areas where they can contribute to society in general.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on December 16, 2010, 11:50:38 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on December 16, 2010, 11:26:46 PM
Quote from: muppet on December 15, 2010, 04:36:44 PM

It's a good argument for a federal Europe.
I think there are quite a few good arguments for a federal europe, it seems that the euro bond collective borrowing will happen in 2011, there's not a lot of going back after that?
Most of the good legislation in this country has come via europe and would never have been implemented if our govt had been given a choice (nor even thought of by those clowns runnig round the dail getting passports sorted out for constituents).  I remember my boss kicking up a fuss when the 20 day statutory minimum holiday regulations came into play and I'm sure there are many similar examples.
My (allbeit limited) experience of european living leads me to believe that they enjoy a higher quality of life, although they have less income. 
On the negative side, the Germans seem to be getting restless again.......
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on December 17, 2010, 12:29:46 AM
Quote from: Zapatista on December 17, 2010, 12:03:33 AMI think there is so much more to the building and the cohesion of a nation than lumping us all together in profit or debt and hoping we stick. I think it would eventually lead to ruin.
I think our record as a nation would point to ruin being the end destination when we are left in charge of our own destiny?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on December 17, 2010, 11:20:23 AM
5 notch downgrade from Moody's.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/dec/17/ireland-credit-rating-slashed-moodys

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: whiskeysteve on December 21, 2010, 01:30:01 PM
European Commission press release - detailing emergency funding for Irish banks

http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=IP/10/1765&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=en

Summary of funding measures for each bank at the bottom.

How about AIB receiving "€3.7 billion of new capital, which will ensure that the bank will meet its minimum capital requirements. This will be funded by the Irish authorities through the National Pension Reserve Fund and independently of the Programme for Support."

it was announced this was on the way but still a fcukin sickener and of course Anglo is just a never ending disaster

QuoteAnglo Irish Bank

Following the statement of the Irish Minister for Finance on 30 September 2010, Anglo Irish Bank will receive a recapitalisation of € 4.946 billion which will cover the capital needs of the bank until 31 December 2010. This is the fourth capital injection for Anglo Irish Bank since the beginning of the financial crisis. It has become necessary because impairments and losses on Anglo Irish Bank's entire commercial loan book have continued to increase due to the poor quality of the book caused by the risky lending practices in the past and the drop in prices on the commercial property market combined with the ongoing crisis on financial markets.

Anglo Irish Bank will furthermore receive a guarantee covering certain off-balance sheet liabilities (derivatives, clearing transactions and transactional arrangements) that will ensure that Anglo Irish Bank can continue its daily activities as a going concern.

To date, the Commission has already approved three emergency capital injections for Anglo Irish Bank (€4 billion in 2009 - see IP/09/1045; €10.44 billion in March 2010, of which €10.3 billion were effectively granted – see IP/10/400 and up to €10.054 in August 2010, of which €8.851 billion have effectively been granted, while the balance will be injected by the end of the year – see IP/10/1046). Therefore, Anglo Irish Bank is expected to be recapitalised for an amount of €29.3 billion. Anglo Irish Bank furthermore benefits from a guarantee on its liabilities (Eligible Liabilities Guarantee scheme - see IP/09/1787) as prolonged by the Commission on 28 June 2010 (IP/10/854) and an impaired asset measure through the transfer of its commercial property loans to the National Asset Management Agency (NAMA), an impaired asset relief scheme (see IP/10/198).

Irish Nationwide Building Society

Irish Nationwide Building Society (INBS) will receive a recapitalisation of €2.7 billion, which follows from the 30 September 2010 announcement and will cover the capital needs of the building society until 31 December 2010. As for Anglo Irish Bank, the recapitalisation is necessary in order to deal with losses on the commercial loan book.

INBS has already received a recapitalisation of € 2.7 billion in March 2010 (IP/10/400). INBS furthermore benefits from the Eligible Liabilities Guarantee scheme and the transfer of its commercial property loans to NAMA.

Allied Irish Bank

Allied Irish Bank will receive a net recapitalisation of up to €9.8 billion which consists of two measures. Firstly, Allied Irish Bank will receive €3.7 billion of new capital, which will ensure that the bank will meet its minimum capital requirements. This will be funded by the Irish authorities through the National Pension Reserve Fund and independently of the Programme for Support. Furthermore, the Irish authorities will convert the government's preference shares received in the context of Allied Irish Bank's recapitalisation in May 2009 (IP/09/744). Secondly, Allied Irish Bank will receive a recapitalisation up to €6.1 billion to deal with the 12% Core Tier 1 capital requirement that is part of the Programme for Support.

Apart from the recapitalisation, Allied Irish Bank benefits from the Eligible Liabilities Guarantee scheme and transferred commercial property loans to NAMA.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: lawnseed on December 21, 2010, 01:41:34 PM
whats the connection with aib and fianna fail? theres something not right here. why haven't they cut this bank lose
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on December 21, 2010, 04:09:22 PM
Quote from: lawnseed on December 21, 2010, 01:41:34 PM
whats the connection with aib and fianna fail? theres something not right here. why haven't they cut this bank lose

I was talking to an economist at work today. The effects of a bank collapse on the wider Euro economy is feared by the authorities more than rising suicides in Ireland.  It is easier to shaft the Irish taxpayer who won't say anything rather than tell rich pension funds their investment are now worth less than what they bought them for.     
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on December 23, 2010, 09:28:42 AM
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/1223/breaking5.html

AIB to be nationalised

19.1.2009
AIB chief executive's message to staff
Dear Colleague,

The past few days have again seen the banking sector, both at home and internationally, go through an extremely volatile time.
The Irish Government's decision to nationalise Anglo Irish Bank, together with a variety of other developments here, in the US, the UK and in other parts of the Eurozone, have all had a knock-on effect on share prices and have led to renewed uncertainty and speculation as to what is going to happen next. I can understand that seeing our share price drop severely is worrying and that you may wonder whether some of the speculation might be true.

Share prices continually rise and fall as a result of many factors and the present extreme volatility in the financial sector serves to exacerbate and exaggerate that process. AIB continues to be a strong, sound, internationally diversified organisation which serves a huge range of personal and business customers across a wide variety of sectors. We have the depth and strength required to manage our way through this period of uncertainty as an independent organisation and I believe we will do so.  Everyone in AIB Group has a role to play in dealing with these difficult times and I can assure you that the Chairman, myself, my colleagues on the Group Executive Committee and the Board are all focussed on ensuring that AIB remains well equipped to tackle whatever challenges this environment may present.

I know I can, as always, rely on all of you to play your part too. Whether you are working in RoI, Northern Ireland, Britain, Poland, the US or in any of our other locations throughout the world, I would just ask two things of you:-

Firstly, don't become sidetracked by rumour and speculation. At times like this there is always, understandably, a surfeit of both.

Secondly, and most importantly, maintain your focus on the day to day business of doing your job and looking after your customers. I cannot over emphasise how important that is as AIB has a key part to play in the revival of the economies in which we operate.

Thank you all, once again, for your continued commitment.

Eugene Sheehy
Group Chief Executive (19/01/2009)

3.3.09
AIB reported a 62 per cent fall in pretax profits for the overall group, which includes its operations in the UK and Poland, and its capital markets division. The group's pretax profits fell to €1 billion in 2008 from €2.5 billion a year earlier as loan losses surged to €1.8 billion from just €106 million a year earlier. Eugene Sheehy, chief executive of AIB, described the results as "disappointing". He said he would not be stepping down, and that he had not offered his resignation to the bank, nor had he considered it. "I have plans to run the bank and lead the bank through this crisis," said Mr Sheehy. He said the bank had received €3.5 billion from the Government in the recapitalisation deal, under which the bank will pay 8 per cent interest a year and could give up a 25 per cent stake in the group to the taxpayer. "This could be a very good deal for the taxpayer. . . and I want to be leading the bank to make sure that happens," he said.
Mr Sheehy said that there was "no need" to nationalise AIB as even in its stress test the bank was "still adequately capitalised". Describing the revelations emerging from Anglo Irish Bank as "very troubling", Mr Sheehy said they had led to "an erosion of morale" within Irish banking.
He said it had been "a very trying task" explaining developments to international investors.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on December 23, 2010, 10:22:14 PM
Quote from: seafoid on December 23, 2010, 09:28:42 AM
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/1223/breaking5.html

AIB to be nationalised

19.1.2009
AIB chief executive's message to staff
Dear Colleague,

The past few days have again seen the banking sector, both at home and internationally, go through an extremely volatile time.
The Irish Government's decision to nationalise Anglo Irish Bank, together with a variety of other developments here, in the US, the UK and in other parts of the Eurozone, have all had a knock-on effect on share prices and have led to renewed uncertainty and speculation as to what is going to happen next. I can understand that seeing our share price drop severely is worrying and that you may wonder whether some of the speculation might be true.

Share prices continually rise and fall as a result of many factors and the present extreme volatility in the financial sector serves to exacerbate and exaggerate that process. AIB continues to be a strong, sound, internationally diversified organisation which serves a huge range of personal and business customers across a wide variety of sectors. We have the depth and strength required to manage our way through this period of uncertainty as an independent organisation and I believe we will do so.  Everyone in AIB Group has a role to play in dealing with these difficult times and I can assure you that the Chairman, myself, my colleagues on the Group Executive Committee and the Board are all focussed on ensuring that AIB remains well equipped to tackle whatever challenges this environment may present.

I know I can, as always, rely on all of you to play your part too. Whether you are working in RoI, Northern Ireland, Britain, Poland, the US or in any of our other locations throughout the world, I would just ask two things of you:-

Firstly, don't become sidetracked by rumour and speculation. At times like this there is always, understandably, a surfeit of both.

Secondly, and most importantly, maintain your focus on the day to day business of doing your job and looking after your customers. I cannot over emphasise how important that is as AIB has a key part to play in the revival of the economies in which we operate.

Thank you all, once again, for your continued commitment.

Eugene Sheehy
Group Chief Executive (19/01/2009)

3.3.09
AIB reported a 62 per cent fall in pretax profits for the overall group, which includes its operations in the UK and Poland, and its capital markets division. The group's pretax profits fell to €1 billion in 2008 from €2.5 billion a year earlier as loan losses surged to €1.8 billion from just €106 million a year earlier. Eugene Sheehy, chief executive of AIB, described the results as "disappointing". He said he would not be stepping down, and that he had not offered his resignation to the bank, nor had he considered it. "I have plans to run the bank and lead the bank through this crisis," said Mr Sheehy. He said the bank had received €3.5 billion from the Government in the recapitalisation deal, under which the bank will pay 8 per cent interest a year and could give up a 25 per cent stake in the group to the taxpayer. "This could be a very good deal for the taxpayer. . . and I want to be leading the bank to make sure that happens," he said.
Mr Sheehy said that there was "no need" to nationalise AIB as even in its stress test the bank was "still adequately capitalised". Describing the revelations emerging from Anglo Irish Bank as "very troubling", Mr Sheehy said they had led to "an erosion of morale" within Irish banking.
He said it had been "a very trying task" explaining developments to international investors.
hearing was in-camera, media present were kicked out prior to commencement - quite worrying and utterly disgraceful - not be long now until the military junta take control!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on December 24, 2010, 09:35:05 AM
Madam, – I note in your report (Front page, December 23rd) that Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan will pump €3.4 billion into AIB, effectively nationalising the bank, from the funds of the National Pension Reserve Fund (NPRF).
However, on the NPRF website, it states that "No money can be drawn down before 2025" and that its statutory investment policy requires "the Fund be invested so as to secure the optimal total financial return provided the level of risk is acceptable to the Commission".
First, how does the Minister have powers to override the fund's statutory policy and second, after receiving a total bailout from the IMF/EU of €85 billion, the Minister could hardly describe using the fund as securing "optimal financial return".
Please Minister: leave office and stop contributing to the ruination of our country. – Yours, etc,
GARETH CLIFFORD,
Coppinger Glade,
Blackrock,
Co Dublin.
Madam, – Let me see if I can get this straight. Minister for Finance, Brian Lenihan, having already "injected" €3.5 billion into Allied Irish Banks, now intends to "inject" a further €3.7 billion into it. From the State pension fund, of course! And furthermore, the "EU Commission" (which no one ever voted for) has approved a further "injection" into AIB of €6.1 billion by the end of February.
This is an amount very similar to that, which the taxpayers must pony up to the EU within the coming fiscal year under the "agreement", whereby the EU/IMF is supposed to "bail out" the entire Irish State, and with similar amounts supposed to come for the next four years.
And all of this to keep a bank afloat, which is worth no more than €4.32 million (and going south very rapidly) on the open market. Not even Alice ever encountered Hatters as mad as these. – Yours, etc,
DAVID IRBY,
An Grobh,
An Daingean,
Co Chiarraí.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on December 24, 2010, 11:56:09 AM
Timing is everything and with the snow and travel disruption dominating the news Lendahand and pals just continued on their merry way of destroying the country.
And 1 in 4 people will still vote for them. Unreal
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Main Street on December 24, 2010, 02:13:50 PM
The Afghanis are much more sensible, they heed the warning signs when the banks use the deposits to give out large loans to their cronies for the purposes of property speculation which in turn drive up property prices for the depositers.

http://www.tampabay.com/incoming/afghans-rush-to-pull-money-out-of-beleaguered-bank/1119264 (http://www.tampabay.com/incoming/afghans-rush-to-pull-money-out-of-beleaguered-bank/1119264)
'The rush followed the resignation of two of the bank's top executives this week amid allegations of mismanagement and questionable real estate loans.'


Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Main Street on December 24, 2010, 02:32:18 PM
Quote from: muppet on December 15, 2010, 04:36:44 PM
That was really about the US Bank Bailout. That appears to have worked (at the moment) while the EU one hasn't.
It appears to have worked if Newsweek type articles are to be believed at face value.
Who is it working for?
The banks are motivated to shortsale and foreclose rather than helping modify mortgages because they make more money via undisclosed/secret payments from the FED via FDIC

'1miillion homes in 2010 so far, about 3 million foreclosures and shortsales in 2009 and 2010 is about 12 million homeless people'
the program (HAMP) meant to prevent three to four million foreclosures will be lucky to stop even get to one million. http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/12/government-foreclosure-prevention-effort-continues-to-wane/68427/ (http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/12/government-foreclosure-prevention-effort-continues-to-wane/68427/)

The treasury has more or less printed USD 13TN,  handed it to the banks at 0.25% so they can buy up debt, and earn interest while devaluaing the value of the USD that the people have left.
In summary,
'21 million unemployed, millions of them getting unemployment benefits; $9.3 trillion in lost house values; a massive transfer of income from savers to banks because of the Fed's policy of low interest rates on short-term money, etc.'

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bennydorano on December 24, 2010, 02:57:21 PM
Quote from: Zapatista on December 16, 2010, 11:26:46 PM
Quote from: muppet on December 15, 2010, 04:36:44 PM
That was really about the US Bank Bailout. That appears to have worked (at the moment) while the EU one hasn't.

The difference seems to be that the States did it all in one go, ignoring the egos in the way and force feeding medicine to institutions it decided needed it. Compare that with first AIB and BOI claiming they didn't need funding, then Greece and Ireland denying they needed assistance. Now Portugal and Spain are in the same boat.

The banks in the Euro should have been put under ECB control. They could decide who sank or swam, or to bail them all out in one go, like the Fed did. Ironically the Fed did socialism better than the EU.

Instead we have the EU standing waiting beside the next domino, waiting to see if it will fall, then trying to catch it before it sets off the next one. It isn't working.



Somewhere on this thread the question was asked (which the media never seem to ask): what if the Bank Guarantee doesn't work?

The answer was NAMA.

Same question: (anyone seen it in the media?) What if NAMA doesn't work?

Answer: IMF/EU bailout and serious austerity measure.

And now we are at the same question again: What if...............?

As usual we have Lenihan berating people who raise the issue of default in any way. We never learn.

It's a good argument for a federal Europe.
I was reading Muppet's post thinking the exact opposite.  Fedearlism works for the USA because they've one language (official anyway), a clearly defined governmental and judicial system, not to mention it's cultural ties & a seemingly inate patriotism.  Europe has none of these things going for it (as a single entity), an array of lanaguages & cultures, differing forms of Government, differing judicial systems.  Europe's got little in common bar an increasingly artificially maintained currency.  I'll save someone the bother of retorting with 'our differences are one of our strengths' - balls.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Main Street on December 27, 2010, 03:08:43 PM
The starting premise to Muppet's post was faulty, that the bank bailout has worked (so far) in the USA.
It is a surreal exercise to debate a perceived USA function V EU disfunction, as it relates to state financed bailing out the collapsed banks.
Both the EU and USA have just temporarily plugged a leak.
It is the next inevitable crisis that will buckle the EU (first) then the USA. There is little capacity left for state bailouts to replace the lost inflated values that came from overheating an economy.
The relentless attacks on real income will see that the next crises comes sooner rather than later.







Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on December 27, 2010, 05:03:50 PM
Quote from: Main Street on December 27, 2010, 03:08:43 PM
The starting premise to Muppet's post was faulty, that the bank bailout has worked (so far) in the USA.
It is a surreal exercise to debate a perceived USA function V EU disfunction, as it relates to state financed bailing out the collapsed banks.
Both the EU and USA have just temporarily plugged a leak.
It is the next inevitable crisis that will buckle the EU (first) then the USA. There is little capacity left for state bailouts to replace the lost inflated values that came from overheating an economy.
The relentless attacks on real income will see that the next crises comes sooner rather than later.
I'd like a bit more explanation of that MS, I agree that we're a long way from having sorted out any of the problems yet and that most 'solutions' have been stop gap measures trying to buy time, but I don't really get the mechanics of it all.  I still can't understand how inflation has stayed so low for example (although I have noticed a very definite upward trend in food prices over the past 4/5 months), I would be interested in learning more on it all though.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on January 05, 2011, 09:47:52 AM
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/swiss-central-bank-refuses-to-touch-irish-state-bonds-2483913.html (http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/swiss-central-bank-refuses-to-touch-irish-state-bonds-2483913.html)

Hasn't gone away
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on January 05, 2011, 09:56:15 AM
Quote from: Bogball XV on December 27, 2010, 05:03:50 PM
Quote from: Main Street on December 27, 2010, 03:08:43 PM
The starting premise to Muppet's post was faulty, that the bank bailout has worked (so far) in the USA.
It is a surreal exercise to debate a perceived USA function V EU disfunction, as it relates to state financed bailing out the collapsed banks.
Both the EU and USA have just temporarily plugged a leak.
It is the next inevitable crisis that will buckle the EU (first) then the USA. There is little capacity left for state bailouts to replace the lost inflated values that came from overheating an economy.
The relentless attacks on real income will see that the next crises comes sooner rather than later.
I'd like a bit more explanation of that MS, I agree that we're a long way from having sorted out any of the problems yet and that most 'solutions' have been stop gap measures trying to buy time, but I don't really get the mechanics of it all.  I still can't understand how inflation has stayed so low for example (although I have noticed a very definite upward trend in food prices over the past 4/5 months), I would be interested in learning more on it all though.

My understanding is that demand is very weak, Bogball.  Deleveraging is the name of the game and then you have high levels of unemployment which are also suppressing demand. Most of the growth in demand from 2002 on was illusory as it was fed by debt and now that debt has to be paid back. Deflation seems to be a bigger worry than inflation. 
 
In the EU there is some temporary inflationary pressure coming off the back of commodity inflation but the question is whether it is going to be passed on to consumers who aren't spending money with anything like the passion of the past.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3c6e2fac-17f3-11e0-9033-00144feab49a.html#ixzz1A4lvfS00

" Nick Kounis, economist at ABN Amro in Amsterdam, said: "This commodity-price driven rise in inflation will only have implications for ECB policy if the central bank were to see 'second round' effects emerging, in terms of knock-on effects on other prices or rising inflation expectations." The ECB would also find it hard to raise its main interest rate while continuing to prop up the banking system in countries such as Ireland and Greece, the countries worst hit by the debt crisis – although ECB policymakers have been careful to keep such a step a theoretical possibility."
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on January 05, 2011, 10:02:30 AM
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/david-mcwilliams/david-mcwilliams-swiss-bank-vaults-filling-up-with-our-deposits-2483877.html (http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/david-mcwilliams/david-mcwilliams-swiss-bank-vaults-filling-up-with-our-deposits-2483877.html)

After a couple of weeks off and deliberately avoiding news or blogs etc re the financial crisis things seem to be worse than ever. Where will it all end I wonder?   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: whiskeysteve on January 07, 2011, 10:38:35 AM
Portuguese 10 yr bonds have soared and broken the 7% level, going from under 6.8% to over 7.1% in 24hours. Surely its a only matter of weeks now if Ireland was anything to go by.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GSPT10YR:IND

Spain also at 5.5% and climbing and as is often reported, is too big to bailout.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bensars on January 07, 2011, 10:45:04 AM
Would the recent rise not be part due to the EU announcing that Bond holders could be "burnt" in the future (unlike ireland) and therefore causing less confidence as a whole ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on January 07, 2011, 10:46:34 AM
The Italian's are also heading for 5%

But shure don't worry about anything –it'll be alright!!

Don't mention the staes either
Talking about the states !!! Treasury Secretary Tim Geitner suggested today that the US could face having to default by March 31.
Geithner presses Republicans to lift U.S. debt limit - http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110106/ts_nm/us_usa_treasury_debtlimit (http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110106/ts_nm/us_usa_treasury_debtlimit)

And if you've time to spend reading some interesting stuff

http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2011/01/january-6-2011-does-federal-reserve.html (http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2011/01/january-6-2011-does-federal-reserve.html)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bennydorano on January 07, 2011, 10:17:21 PM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on January 07, 2011, 10:38:35 AM
Portuguese 10 yr bonds have soared and broken the 7% level, going from under 6.8% to over 7.1% in 24hours. Surely its a only matter of weeks now if Ireland was anything to go by.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GSPT10YR:IND

Spain also at 5.5% and climbing and as is often reported, is too big to bailout.
Spain will be fine, China have pledged to buy so much sovreign debt, no idea why. Why do the media throw fuel on the fire rather than play their part in calming things down.  Was even the same with the recent weather, the hyperbole was embarassing at times.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on January 08, 2011, 03:51:22 AM
I'm hearing Portugal's goose is cooked.

I thought they would last till at least May but don't think that will happen now.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on January 08, 2011, 01:08:17 PM
time for gerry to bite the bullet and borrow for the rest of us?  Only solution if the euro (eu project?) is to survive?

Like Declan, I've been avoiding all writings and debate on all of this - i can't be bothered listening to the rubbish being spouted by those who have the power to change things.

In addition I'm highly unlikely to vote in any upcoming general election, maybe if a new party were to emerge, but I cannot see a scenario where any of the current parties will be getting my vote.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on January 11, 2011, 09:39:37 AM
In today's Irish Times William Buiter, chief economist of Citigroup, says Ireland should restructure its bank and perhaps its sovereign debt as 'quickly as possible'.
"He said that he expected that, if Fine Gael and Labour were to form the next government, they would introduce an element of burden-sharing for senior unsecured creditors "quite soon after they come into office", unless persuaded otherwise by the European Central Bank (ECB), the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)."-
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2011/0111/1224287235799.html (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2011/0111/1224287235799.html)

how many times must we hear this message?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Zapatista on January 13, 2011, 09:06:29 AM
Anyone know why we are drawing this money now? I thought we had enough to do up to March in reserve and that revenue was performing better than predicted. Will there be a massive spend before the election?: 

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0112/euro-business.html
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on January 13, 2011, 09:20:28 AM
QuoteAnyone know why we are drawing this money now?

Yep it's Clowens' round next
(http://i455.photobucket.com/albums/qq275/je_est_un_autre/cowen2008.jpg)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on January 13, 2011, 09:58:11 AM
Quote from: Zapatista on January 13, 2011, 09:32:22 AM
Quote from: Declan on January 13, 2011, 09:20:28 AM


Yep it's Clowens' round next
(http://i455.photobucket.com/albums/qq275/je_est_un_autre/cowen2008.jpg)

Hold the f**k on here!! Is this St Patricks day? Was he not on official business that day with the elite of Vietnam? Unless all the Vietmanese elite were in bed at 9 O'Clock and Cowen headed off to another party?
many asians lack the enzyme which breaks down alcohol thus they get drunk quicker and have a much lower capacity for alcohol consumption.
This enzyme is particularly plentiful in beasts of the bovine family, of which the Buffalo and presumably its near neighbour the biffo are members.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on January 15, 2011, 02:37:12 AM
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2011/0114/1224287488231.html?via=mr (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2011/0114/1224287488231.html?via=mr)

Cowen fiddled in summer Ireland burned

OPINION: The Taoiseach played Nero during the incredible weeks from July to September 2008, writes ELAINE BYRNE

NERO FIDDLED while Rome burned. The infamous inaction of the Roman emporer finds an echo in Brian Cowen's time as Taoiseach.

Nero occupied himself with unimportant matters and neglected priorities during a crisis – that has been the distinguishing feature of Cowen's tenure.

A timeline of events from the July golf outing to the September bank guarantee paints a picture of incompetence and a deep failure to realise the severity of Ireland's economic crisis.

It began with the Taoiseach "just shooting the breeze" and playing golf with Seán FitzPatrick, chairman of Anglo Irish Bank, on July 28th, 2008. Anglo was then on the verge of collapse with shares at €5.30 on that fateful day in July, compared to a €14.40 high the previous October. The bank was putting together a list of names, the infamous Maple 10, to buy a stake and boost the share price.

Yet Cowen apparently never discussed any of these matters while dining with two directors of Anglo, a recently resigned director and a director of the Central Bank that night. Alan Gray, appointed in 2007 by Cowen as a director of the Central Bank, said the purpose of the informal dinner "was to provide independent ideas to stimulate economic growth and to reduce unemployment in Ireland".

What a disaster that advice, if given and accepted, proved to be.

That was the summer Cowen decided not to introduce a mini-budget in fear of "talking down the economy".

A year later the Murphy report would introduce Irish public life to the language of "mental reservation": the creative concept which allowed those in authority to justify saying one thing and meaning another, without consequences, in order to protect the reputation of powerful individuals.

The timing of events that summer was as incredible as the events themselves. The Standards in Public Office Commission issued its annual report a day after the Taoiseach's golf game with FitzPatrick. The commission said it "regrets" Cowen's refusal to heed its recommendations to make it easier to investigate politicians. "It is not known," the commission said, "how the parties financed their election campaigns in 2007."

Political parties spent over €11 million on that election, yet disclosed just €1.12 million in donations.

The next day, Cowen was enjoying the Galway races. He told Frank McNally of this newspaper there was a "media fixation" with the Fianna Fáil tent.

In July the Government tax intake was €776 million below its expectations for that month. However, sources within Government said that no decisions on revising projections or otherwise would be taken until September. By September, tax revenues were an extraordinary €2.8 billion below target, raising fears that borrowing would breach EU guidelines of 3 per cent of GDP. Unemployment rose by 73,800 or 42 per cent in the 12 months to August – the highest annual increase then on record. High-profile multinationals Pfizer and Boston Scientific shed 180 and 240 jobs that summer. Calls for a state-of-the-nation address by the Taoiseach grew louder.

In the last week of August, Cowen sang the emigration song Paddy's Green Shamrock Shore on the Fleadh Cheoil main stage in Tullamore.

At the end of that same week, Ibec – deeply frustrated at the non-response to rapidly rising unemployment, a deterioration in tax revenues, a worsening economic situation and with social partnership pay talks stalled for August – issued a press release. The employers' federation called on the Government "to show leadership and to cut their own cloth to fit".

On that same day, Cowen officially opened the Connemara Golf Club in Ballyconneely, Co Galway, where he had holidayed in his caravan that summer.

The response to the Lehman Brothers collapse of September 15th by Anglo Irish Bank was the attempt, four days later, to acquire Irish Nationwide Building Society – a bank in a worse state than Anglo, with an 80 per cent loan book exposed to commercial property and development.

Anglo told The Irish Times that it believed it had the blessing of the Government if it wished to proceed with the transaction. On that very same day, Cowen told those assembled for the launch of the Irish operations of Australian bank Macquarie, that the Irish financial services sector had "weathered developments well to date" and that the Financial Regulator was "liaising closely with the industry".

And all was well in Nero's land.

The Dáil convened after its 11-week summer recess on September 24th. Cowen was at the National Ploughing Championships the next day. The CSO released data the following day that showed the Irish economy had "technically" entered a recession.

Four days later, the Government offered a blanket bank guarantee over all €440 billion of Irish bank liabilities. This decision not only damaged the Government's credit rating but led ultimately to the €85 billion bailout by the International Monetary Fund and the European Union.

This was Brian Cowen's first 150 days as Taoiseach.

Like Nero, he will be remembered as an ineffectual and neglectful leader. Anglo has ruined a country, so why not the career of a Taoiseach that presided over it?

Elaine Byrne is an adjunct lecturer in politics in Trinity College Dublin
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on January 18, 2011, 11:19:00 AM
Food for thought
http://jackhbarnes.com/2011/01/17/fianna-failed-ireland-prints-25-of-its-gdp-in-german-euros/ (http://jackhbarnes.com/2011/01/17/fianna-failed-ireland-prints-25-of-its-gdp-in-german-euros/)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on January 18, 2011, 12:20:42 PM
This came out in November but is a scary taster of what may be ahead thanks to Fianna Freakonomics

http://mpettis.com/2010/11/chinese-inflation-and-european-defaults/

"The truth is we didn't need the denials to know what was going to happen. Everything we are seeing in Europe has a great deal of historical precedence and events are unfolding very much according to the standard script. I think it is pretty safe to make the following predictions:

1. Greece will be forced to default and restructure its debt, and the restructuring will come with a significant amount of debt forgiveness. The idea that it can grow its way out of the current debt burden is a fantasy. Remember that when countries are in conditions of financial distress, they face systematic disinvestment and capital flight, and as a consequence are never able to grow at anywhere close to the necessary rates – especially since any growth they do manage to achieve generally comes from additional fiscal spending, which simply runs up debt further.

2. Greece will not be the only defaulter. Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Belgium and much of Eastern Europe will also face severe financial distress and possible default. History suggests that when a country is experiencing a solvency crisis, growth comes only after debt forgiveness, and many or most of those countries will also be forced into debt forgiveness.

3. Political radicalism in these countries will rise inexorably as a consequence of rising class conflict. As Keynes pointed out as far back as 1922, the process of adjusting the currency and debt will primarily be one of assigning the costs to different economic groups, and this is never an easy or conflict-free exercise. Of course the less stable a government becomes as a consequence of this adjustment, the more likely it is to prefer very short-term solutions.* This Sunday, by the way, Catalans are likely to vote in an election in which the "current Socialist-led coalition government in Spain's northeastern region will fall, a slap in the face for Spain's prime minister, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero,", according to an article in Wednesday's New York Times. There will be a lot more of this sort of thing in the next few years.

4. So why not bite the bullet and just get it over with? Because the European banking system would not survive even the best-case restructuring scenario. As a consequence we are fated to witness several years of difficult economic adjustment while everyone pretends that these countries, under the right policies, can work their way through their debt burdens. What will really be happening is that European banks will aggressively rebuild their capital bases, with the unwilling help of the poor household sector, until they are sufficiently well capitalized to begin taking the write-offs. Only then will we recognize that some countries cannot repay their debts.

5. As an aside the European junk-bond market might take off. With banks crippled in their lending activities, Europe's financial markets will probably go through a process much like that which the US experienced in the 1980s. American banks at that time were unable to fulfill their traditional lending function as they struggled to clean up their LDC and energy loan portfolios, leaving the way open for the likes of Drexel Burnham to create a massive junk bond market. This process will be helped to the extent that European policymakers try to avoid paying for the adjustment by liberalizing bank-lending practices.

6. Several countries, most notably Spain, will be forced to choose between giving up sovereignty to Germany, suffering extremely high rates of unemployment for several years, or giving up the euro. They will almost certainly choose the third option. There are still a lot of people who say giving up the euro is "unimaginable", but that just shows a weak imagination. I especially remember in 2000 Domingo Cavallo dismissing the stupidity of foreign investors who imagined Argentina might be forced to suspend payments and devalue the peso – which it did in late 2001. More recently, on April 30, Cavallo warned Greece: "Don't even think of abandoning the euro, whether temporarily or definitively, because that will provoke a financial catastrophe in Greece and various other countries in Europe." Now there's some useful advice, especially when you consider the huge surge in growth and the fall in unemployment Argentina experienced after it devalued.

This has been said before, but in a way this crisis is the European equivalence of the American Civil War. Once the dust finally settles Europe will either be a unified country with fiscal sovereignty firmly established in Berlin or Brussels, or it will be fragmented with little chance of reunion."
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on January 24, 2011, 09:59:32 AM
http://www.tribune.ie/business/article/2011/jan/23/irish-corporation-tax-faces-ec-attack-just-days-af/ (http://www.tribune.ie/business/article/2011/jan/23/irish-corporation-tax-faces-ec-attack-just-days-af/)

Remember all those Vote Yes for jobs posters!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hardy on January 24, 2011, 10:28:43 AM
Don't we have a veto on this? I remember being promised that we had when I was invited to approve the EU constitution dressed up as the Lisbon Treaty. Both times.

Surely the politicians didn't lie to me? That would be unthinkable.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on January 24, 2011, 12:55:14 PM
Quote from: Hardy on January 24, 2011, 10:28:43 AM
Don't we have a veto on this? I remember being promised that we had when I was invited to approve the EU constitution dressed up as the Lisbon Treaty. Both times.

Surely the politicians didn't lie to me? That would be unthinkable.

We are paying an unsustainably high interest rate on our IMF/EU bailout because the EU wanted to punish us. Now they want to take away the only competitive advantage we have which would be our only hope of having an economy capable of paying back the debt. Anyone would think the EU seriously had it in for us.

Although considering we had Harney and McCreevy touring Europe not so long ago lecturing them on how to be a successful economy, I can see why they might have it in for us. Not to mention the type of Commissioner we have sent them. Flynn, Geoghegan-Quinn?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on January 25, 2011, 10:57:09 AM
http://www.thersa.org/events/vision/animate/rsa-animate-crisis-of-capitalism (http://www.thersa.org/events/vision/animate/rsa-animate-crisis-of-capitalism)

Some interesting discussion points here - Put aside your prejudices when you hear he's a Marxist- which I know is hard (well it was for me anyway) and it's certainly thought provoking. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on January 25, 2011, 11:14:46 AM
That is a great video.
Only those who are not ideologues can call this crisis.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on January 26, 2011, 08:21:00 AM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12282405 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12282405)

Things are going to get very tough for everyone and yet we still have no real debate about it
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bailestil on January 26, 2011, 09:33:08 AM
Seems Merv is happy to Inflate the UK's debt problems away.
So what people will lose in living standard they will gain from not having to deal with 5+% interest rate on their mortgage.

This is the UK's bailout for the Neg Equity general public.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Ulick on January 26, 2011, 10:04:21 AM
Quote from: bailestil on January 26, 2011, 09:33:08 AM
Seems Merv is happy to Inflate the UK's debt problems away.
So what people will lose in living standard they will gain from not having to deal with 5+% interest rate on their mortgage.

This is the UK's bailout for the Neg Equity general public.

Nice to have the option though.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on January 26, 2011, 10:34:07 AM
Quote from: Declan on January 26, 2011, 08:21:00 AM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12282405 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12282405)

Things are going to get very tough for everyone and yet we still have no real debate about it

From that link
"As such, the economy would be dependent on a rebound in exports to drive the recovery."

All pigs refueled and ready for takeoff.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Ulick on January 26, 2011, 11:13:40 AM
Can anyone give a run-down on what's happening with the Finance Bill. Am I right in thinking it's being voted on today? If it fails and given that it's a 'money bill' will Cowen have to seek immediate dissolution a la Garret the Good in '82? 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hardy on January 26, 2011, 11:14:12 AM
Yes and yes.

(At least some of it is being voted on today).
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Ulick on January 26, 2011, 11:24:19 AM
Feck, just had a look at Dáil tv and there's only about four people in the Chamber debating the Second Stage of the Finance Bill - and that includes the Ceann Comhairle.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: armaghniac on January 26, 2011, 11:59:29 AM
The Finance Bill is set to be passed, after Independent TDs Michael Lowry and Jackie Healy Rae indicated they will support it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Ulick on January 26, 2011, 12:21:24 PM
Ta 80
Nil 78

Who was missing?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: armaghniac on January 26, 2011, 12:34:14 PM
QuoteWho was missing?

Two FF D. Aherne & Dempsey were ill and were paired by FG.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on January 27, 2011, 01:42:09 PM
ECONOMISTS NOURIEL Roubini and Ken Rogoff, two of the most prominent academic commentators on the financial crisis, said the Government should compel senior bondholders to bear some of the cost of rescuing Ireland's banks.
Although second-class bondholders in some Irish banks have taken discounts on their investments, "haircuts" for senior bondholders were ruled out at the time of Ireland's bailout deal with the EU and the IMF.
Dr Roubini, nicknamed "Dr Doom" for predicting the crisis two years before it struck, said Ireland risked insolvency if senior bondholders were not tackled.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on January 30, 2011, 09:43:37 PM
http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2011/01/28/anglo%E2%80%99s-january-31st-bond/ (http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2011/01/28/anglo%E2%80%99s-january-31st-bond/)

On Monday, January 31st, Anglo Irish Bank are going to pay out on a maturing bond worth €750 million. (For reference, the total cut in this year's welfare budget will be €873 million.) The investors who purchased this bond invested their money with Anglo on the 17th of January 2006. The bond is senior unsecured debt and is not covered by a state guarantee.

When you look at the reduction in your latest pay packet think about the above.

(my formatting)

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on January 30, 2011, 10:07:42 PM
http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=19&t=35376 (http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=19&t=35376)

Very interesting thread about the advice the Government received before deciding on the bank guarantee.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on January 31, 2011, 01:56:52 PM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12323587 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12323587)

Eurozone inflation rate increases to 2.4%

The ECB will start thinking about interest rate rises possibly before the year end. Those on tracker mortgages here (including me) will be watching closely.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on January 31, 2011, 02:20:54 PM
Focussed on American bailout but very clever
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yipV_pK6HXw&feature=player_embedded (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yipV_pK6HXw&feature=player_embedded)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on January 31, 2011, 03:30:15 PM
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4aa6522c-2caa-11e0-83bd-00144feab49a.html

"There is a rationale to delay if you really think you can make it through, but there is a tendency for delay unnecessarily, because the costs are exaggerated by financial markets," Mr Stiglitz says. "If debt is going to have to be restructured, it's better to be sooner than later
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on February 01, 2011, 12:56:54 PM
http://www.sbpost.ie/themarket/50-billion-in-loans-puts-solvency-risk-on-central-bank-54176.html (http://www.sbpost.ie/themarket/50-billion-in-loans-puts-solvency-risk-on-central-bank-54176.html)

€50 billion in loans puts 'solvency risk' on Central Bank
30 January 2011 By Richard Curran

A staggering €50 billion of emergency funding to Irish banks by the Central Bank of Ireland could pose a threat to the very solvency of the Central Bank itself, a report by Citi has concluded.

The report, which examines the €50 billion in emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) provided by the Central Bank of Ireland (CBI) to Irish banks, also concluded that ''it is likely that the collateral offered (by the Irish banks) would not be accepted by the ECB''.

Citi suggested there was considerable secrecy around the precise mechanism under which this €50 billion was lent out, and the Central Bank has declined to comment.

Without firm confirmation from the Central Bank, it appears that the €50 billion in emergency liquidity is in some way guaranteed by the Irish state.

If it were to be added on to the national debt, it would increase the country's national debt profile by 31 per cent of GDP, according to Citi.

There does not appear to be a publicly available document which shows the Irish state has guaranteed this €50 billion.

Citi said that, if this money, provided to banks for their short-term cash needs, was not guaranteed and any prospective losses were not shared across the eurozone, then ''the Central Bank providing it is at risk of insolvency''.

The amount accounts for 24 per cent of the Central Bank's total assets.

Any losses on these loans above the Central Bank's €1.5 billion of capital would place it under extreme financial pressure.

Citi said that, even if the emergency loans were covered by the state, ''some risk of insolvency of the CBI because of its exposure to ELA remains, in our view, because the solvency and liquidity of the Irish sovereign itself is not beyond doubt.

That raises the spectre that, should the guarantees be called, the Irish sovereign may not be in a position to indemnify the CBI against these losses.

''The reluctance of the ECB and national central banks to discuss ELA suggests a certain uneasiness about the loss of monetary control and potential negative reputational and financial repercussions."

Under eurozone rules, national central banks can issue emergency liquidity assistance outside of the euro money system.

The ECB has the power to veto such a move, but it is available to central banks as an option.

They don't have to have this funding in cash and the deposits can be created, but ultimately the bank or its national government is liable should the banks fail to repay.


I really don't undertand why every citizen in the State doesn't have a book of newspaper cuttings such as the above, in one hand and a hurley in the other to be produced when FF canvassers come knocking.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Lone Shark on February 01, 2011, 01:23:06 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 01, 2011, 12:56:54 PM
I really don't undertand why every citizen in the State doesn't have a book of newspaper cuttings such as the above, in one hand and a hurley in the other to be produced when FF canvassers come knocking.

Is such a thing actually happening though? I live in an apartment in Galway so I fully expect that I won't see any canvassers of any hue, however I haven't heard any anecdotal evidence off FFers knocking on doors anywhere - have they just given it up as a bad job maybe?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on February 01, 2011, 04:43:32 PM
"Living in Athenry, Lorraine  contested the 2009 Galway County Council elections where she secured over 800 first preferences on her first time out. She is the Labour Party's General election candidate in Galway East in 2011.
Lorraine is a qualified barrister and Membership Officer with Junior Chamber Ireland, Galway. Her vision of Galway East is of an area where people have more opportunities, more facilities, more choice, more power over their lives and an area that is safer."

Yesterday the government paid Anglo bondholders 750m. Ireland is headed for a sovereign default unless the banks are resolved. When Ireland defaults the budget deficit will have to be cut immediately. Who is going to pay the salaries of the people in Portiuncula hospital in Ballinasloe or the teachers in Tuam ? What is Labour going to do to avoid sovereign default?     
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on February 01, 2011, 11:07:39 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 01, 2011, 04:43:32 PM
"Living in Athenry, Lorraine  contested the 2009 Galway County Council elections where she secured over 800 first preferences on her first time out. She is the Labour Party's General election candidate in Galway East in 2011.
Lorraine is a qualified barrister and Membership Officer with Junior Chamber Ireland, Galway. Her vision of Galway East is of an area where people have more opportunities, more facilities, more choice, more power over their lives and an area that is safer."

Yesterday the government paid Anglo bondholders 750m. Ireland is headed for a sovereign default unless the banks are resolved. When Ireland defaults the budget deficit will have to be cut immediately. Who is going to pay the salaries of the people in Portiuncula hospital in Ballinasloe or the teachers in Tuam ? What is Labour going to do to avoid sovereign default?     

As posted above this was unsecured debt not covered by the Guarantee. In other words the Government owned Anglo just gave away €750 Million of taxpayers' money voluntarily.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on February 01, 2011, 11:27:39 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 01, 2011, 11:07:39 PMYesterday the government paid Anglo bondholders 750m. Ireland is headed for a sovereign default unless the banks are resolved. When Ireland defaults the budget deficit will have to be cut immediately. Who is going to pay the salaries of the people in Portiuncula hospital in Ballinasloe or the teachers in Tuam ? What is Labour going to do to avoid sovereign default?     

As posted above this was unsecured debt not covered by the Guarantee. In other words the Government owned Anglo just gave away €750 Million of taxpayers' money voluntarily.
[/quote]
If they hadn't done so would that not have precipitated insolvency proceedings instigated by the holders of those bonds?  And since Anglo is state owned what would have happened, I haven't thought much about the consequences of any of this, am I right and if so what would have happened?
In any case the EU bailout is contingent on repaying the bondholders, all of them that is.  Does anyone know how far back the guarantee runs?  Was it only for loans advanced from the date of the guarantee, I had been under the impression that it related to loans already in existence?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on February 01, 2011, 11:59:00 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on February 01, 2011, 11:27:39 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 01, 2011, 11:07:39 PMYesterday the government paid Anglo bondholders 750m. Ireland is headed for a sovereign default unless the banks are resolved. When Ireland defaults the budget deficit will have to be cut immediately. Who is going to pay the salaries of the people in Portiuncula hospital in Ballinasloe or the teachers in Tuam ? What is Labour going to do to avoid sovereign default?     

As posted above this was unsecured debt not covered by the Guarantee. In other words the Government owned Anglo just gave away €750 Million of taxpayers' money voluntarily.
If they hadn't done so would that not have precipitated insolvency proceedings instigated by the holders of those bonds?  And since Anglo is state owned what would have happened, I haven't thought much about the consequences of any of this, am I right and if so what would have happened?
In any case the EU bailout is contingent on repaying the bondholders, all of them that is.  Does anyone know how far back the guarantee runs?  Was it only for loans advanced from the date of the guarantee, I had been under the impression that it related to loans already in existence?
[/quote]

Anglo is only solvent thanks to the taxpayer. This only confirms what you said at the start of the Guarantee that they should have let it go. The above bond was issued in 2006 but wasn't covered by the Guarantee according to the SBP (don't ask me why).

If the EU bailout terms are the cause of this then: the EU are saying we must pay these people and the EU will fine you (punitive interest rate for bailout) for owing them.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on February 02, 2011, 12:12:19 AM
Quote from: muppet on February 01, 2011, 11:59:00 PMIf the EU bailout terms are the cause of this then: the EU are saying we must pay these people and the EU will fine you (punitive interest rate for bailout) for owing them.
that's pretty much my understanding of it.  Not that we don't deserve it btw, they advanced us money, it wasn't their fault that we decided to blow it. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on February 02, 2011, 12:27:09 AM
Quote from: Bogball XV on February 02, 2011, 12:12:19 AM
Quote from: muppet on February 01, 2011, 11:59:00 PMIf the EU bailout terms are the cause of this then: the EU are saying we must pay these people and the EU will fine you (punitive interest rate for bailout) for owing them.
that's pretty much my understanding of it.  Not that we don't deserve it btw, they advanced us money, it wasn't their fault that we decided to blow it.

This is the nub of the issue though.

If one bank lends to another bank and the second bank blows the money, it is fair enough that the owners of the second bank get stung. But why should people who live near the second bank have to pay back the first bank?

More particularly why would a central authority rule that citizens in one part of its jurisdiction should pay back a bank they never dealt with in another jurisdiction. Either the EU is in charge, in which case it is responsible or it isn't, in which case it had no business ordering us to repay the bondholders. That was our decision.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on February 02, 2011, 12:22:42 PM
http://www.vanityfair.com/online/daily/2011/02/michael-lewis-on-how-merrill-lynch-and-brian-lenihan-stuck-the-people-of-ireland-with-a-debt-of-106-billion.html (http://www.vanityfair.com/online/daily/2011/02/michael-lewis-on-how-merrill-lynch-and-brian-lenihan-stuck-the-people-of-ireland-with-a-debt-of-106-billion.html)

Lendahand's Lies
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on February 02, 2011, 12:39:58 PM
Quote from: Declan on February 02, 2011, 12:22:42 PM
http://www.vanityfair.com/online/daily/2011/02/michael-lewis-on-how-merrill-lynch-and-brian-lenihan-stuck-the-people-of-ireland-with-a-debt-of-106-billion.html (http://www.vanityfair.com/online/daily/2011/02/michael-lewis-on-how-merrill-lynch-and-brian-lenihan-stuck-the-people-of-ireland-with-a-debt-of-106-billion.html)

Lendahand's Lies

Good article.

There is something poetic about his lies being exposed in something called Vanity Fair. The former reflects his ego, the latter his intelligence.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on February 02, 2011, 01:32:54 PM
"We have turned the corner" - Brian Lenihan Budget Day 2009

Today - http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0202/rating-business.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0202/rating-business.html)

Standard & Poor's cuts Ireland's credit rating

'We consider the decline in creditworthiness of the Irish banking system over the past three years, and the related collapse in investor confidence, to be one of the most severe that we have observed in a major developed economy for many years,' S&P said.

Cowen in 2006:

http://www.finance.gov.ie/viewdoc.asp?DocID=3870 (http://www.finance.gov.ie/viewdoc.asp?DocID=3870)

"There is currently a consensus amongst experts and analysts (domestic, IMF and OECD) that the most likely outcome for the housing market is a "soft landing".  This is a reasonable assessment that a "cooling-off" period will guide the market to a soft landing.  However, we cannot be complacent by assuming this is inevitable.

For its part, the Government continues to run a prudent, stability-oriented budgetary policy which gives us room for manoeuvre in the event of an economic downturn, whatever the cause. "

"Against the background of the strong growth of credit and the associated increase in indebtedness, it is hardly a surprise to anyone that the Central Bank and the Financial Regulator have put increasing emphasis on the need for prudence in lending by the financial institutions.

The Financial Regulator clearly has an important role in view of its statutory mandate both to safeguard the interests of consumers and for the prudential supervision of financial institutions.  The continued vigilance of the Financial Regulator is demonstrated by the recent announcement of increased capital provisioning by lending institutions in respect of high loan to value (LTV) mortgage lending.
"
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on February 02, 2011, 01:56:13 PM
The State's largest home-loan lender is preparing to raise its mortgage rate by a full 1pc in a move that is set to shock homeowners.

Other lenders are now expected to follow Permanent TSB with a similar-sized hike, in a move that could push thousands of homeowners into arrears.

The rise in standard variable rates from 4.19pc to 5.19pc will add €60 to the monthly repayments for every €100,000 borrowed.

Don't you just love those wonderful financial institutions
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on February 02, 2011, 02:00:22 PM
Quote from: Declan on February 02, 2011, 01:56:13 PM
The State's largest home-loan lender is preparing to raise its mortgage rate by a full 1pc in a move that is set to shock homeowners.

Other lenders are now expected to follow Permanent TSB with a similar-sized hike, in a move that could push thousands of homeowners into arrears.

The rise in standard variable rates from 4.19pc to 5.19pc will add €60 to the monthly repayments for every €100,000 borrowed.

Don't you just love those wonderful financial institutions

Variable Russian Roulette?

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on February 03, 2011, 09:39:30 AM
http://av.r.ftdata.co.uk/files/2011/02/Michael-Lewis-on-ireland.pdf (http://av.r.ftdata.co.uk/files/2011/02/Michael-Lewis-on-ireland.pdf)

The full Vanity Fair article - long but a good read
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on February 03, 2011, 11:27:25 AM
The Supreme Court has ruled in favour of Paddy McKillen in his action aimed at preventing the National Assets Management Agency (Nama) acquiring some €2.1 billion loans of his companies.

The seven-judge court found that the decision by the Nama board to acquire his loans was not legally binding. The decision had been made by an interim board of the State's bad bank before the agency had been established through legislation.

More good news
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on February 03, 2011, 11:47:24 AM
Quote from: Declan on February 03, 2011, 11:27:25 AM
The Supreme Court has ruled in favour of Paddy McKillen in his action aimed at preventing the National Assets Management Agency (Nama) acquiring some €2.1 billion loans of his companies.

The seven-judge court found that the decision by the Nama board to acquire his loans was not legally binding. The decision had been made by an interim board of the State's bad bank before the agency had been established through legislation.

More good news

Bbbbbbbbbbbbut Lenny is a Barrister. He know's law and stuff (not finance obviously).

Part of me hopes they get re-elected.

Then we might see a million people on the streets.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: An Gaeilgoir on February 03, 2011, 01:08:01 PM
Paddy mc killen has won part of his case today. It just gets worse and worse for NAMA. This could change everything.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on February 03, 2011, 02:16:50 PM
NAMA is a joke at this stage. It didn't do what it said on the tin.
It didn't stop the country form having to go to the IMF so what is the point of it now? Ireland is firmly in the grip of a debt deflation cycle that will end in a bond default  . NAMA was a FF white elephant.

Brian Lenihan should be in jail. Along with anyone who sat on the boards of the banks over the last 5 years. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on February 03, 2011, 02:49:06 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 03, 2011, 02:16:50 PM
NAMA is a joke at this stage. It didn't do what it said on the tin.
It didn't stop the country form having to go to the IMF so what is the point of it now? Ireland is firmly in the grip of a debt deflation cycle that will end in a bond default  . NAMA was a FF white elephant.

Brian Lenihan should be in jail. Along with anyone who sat on the boards of the banks over the last 5 years.

NAMA happened because of the failure of the bank guarantee. The IMF is here because of the failure of NAMA.

When you look at it NAMA was nuts (although I accept smarter people than I still argue with me that it was the right thing to do)

This is my simple understanding of how NAMA worked. Imagine a bank had a toxic loan of say €100,000,000. NAMA (taxpayer) acquired this loan giving the bank a haircut of say 50% so it paid the bank €50,000,000 for the toxic loan. This loan is now in NAMA who are trying to figure out how to get the money back.

In the meantime the bank has had €50,000,000 taken off its balance sheet by the haircut. So the Government (taxpayer) has to recapitalise the bank to the tune of the €50 Million (give them the money).

As all of this money is ultimately funded by the taxpayer (via the ECB first then the EU/IMF) so in reality the taxpayer is picking up the tab for everything until NAMA can actually sell some property. But as we know some of the people responsible for the toxic loans in the first place are advising NAMA so we should not be surprised if they recover long before the taxpayer does.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on February 03, 2011, 02:56:04 PM
Quote from: An Gaeilgoir on February 03, 2011, 01:08:01 PM
Paddy mc killen has won part of his case today. It just gets worse and worse for NAMA. This could change everything.
dunno, seems like a technicality and mckillen's argument was that as his loans were 'performing' to use bank speak, they shouldn't have been taken into nama in the first place.  There aren't too many of the big developers in that boat.

If it were to prove enough to undo NAMA, what would happen? I'm not sure that would be in any of our interests' anymore, given how far it has progressed? 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on February 03, 2011, 03:00:44 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on February 03, 2011, 02:56:04 PM
Quote from: An Gaeilgoir on February 03, 2011, 01:08:01 PM
Paddy mc killen has won part of his case today. It just gets worse and worse for NAMA. This could change everything.
dunno, seems like a technicality and mckillen's argument was that as his loans were 'performing' to use bank speak, they shouldn't have been taken into nama in the first place.  There aren't too many of the big developers in that boat.

If it were to prove enough to undo NAMA, what would happen? I'm not sure that would be in any of our interests' anymore, given how far it has progressed?

The State is picking up the tab either way.

NAMA is exempt from the Freedom of Information Act afaik. That tells me all I need to know about Lenihan's intentions for NAMA. It was also an attempt to keep the debt 'off balance sheet' as in the National Debt. Don't think that is going to fool anyone anymore.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on February 03, 2011, 03:16:02 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 03, 2011, 03:00:44 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on February 03, 2011, 02:56:04 PM
Quote from: An Gaeilgoir on February 03, 2011, 01:08:01 PM
Paddy mc killen has won part of his case today. It just gets worse and worse for NAMA. This could change everything.
dunno, seems like a technicality and mckillen's argument was that as his loans were 'performing' to use bank speak, they shouldn't have been taken into nama in the first place.  There aren't too many of the big developers in that boat.

If it were to prove enough to undo NAMA, what would happen? I'm not sure that would be in any of our interests' anymore, given how far it has progressed?

The State is picking up the tab either way.

NAMA is exempt from the Freedom of Information Act afaik. That tells me all I need to know about Lenihan's intentions for NAMA. It was also an attempt to keep the debt 'off balance sheet' as in the National Debt. Don't think that is going to fool anyone anymore.
I think most agencies have been lumping bank debt and state debt together for a while now - sure how coulc they do otherwise.

Whilst NAMA has this ridiculous long term economic value stipulation in it, i have been surprised by how they've went after some of their debtors and by just how big some of the more recent hair cuts have been.  They're still probably giving too much, but still, they don't seem to have been as influcenced by the govt as I thought they would. 

The problem with NAMA was that in a few years time there have been rumours that many of the current owners of NAMA loans would renegotiate better deals and discounts on their loans etc, it's just that they couldn't do that now, politically unpalatable etc...

And of course it was never going to work in getting the banks lending again, that was a really stupid suggestion.

Should anything be exempt from the FOI act? 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on February 03, 2011, 03:18:19 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on February 03, 2011, 03:16:02 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 03, 2011, 03:00:44 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on February 03, 2011, 02:56:04 PM
Quote from: An Gaeilgoir on February 03, 2011, 01:08:01 PM
Paddy mc killen has won part of his case today. It just gets worse and worse for NAMA. This could change everything.
dunno, seems like a technicality and mckillen's argument was that as his loans were 'performing' to use bank speak, they shouldn't have been taken into nama in the first place.  There aren't too many of the big developers in that boat.

If it were to prove enough to undo NAMA, what would happen? I'm not sure that would be in any of our interests' anymore, given how far it has progressed?

The State is picking up the tab either way.

NAMA is exempt from the Freedom of Information Act afaik. That tells me all I need to know about Lenihan's intentions for NAMA. It was also an attempt to keep the debt 'off balance sheet' as in the National Debt. Don't think that is going to fool anyone anymore.
I think most agencies have been lumping bank debt and state debt together for a while now - sure how coulc they do otherwise.

Whilst NAMA has this ridiculous long term economic value stipulation in it, i have been surprised by how they've went after some of their debtors and by just how big some of the more recent hair cuts have been.  They're still probably giving too much, but still, they don't seem to have been as influcenced by the govt as I thought they would. 

The problem with NAMA was that in a few years time there have been rumours that many of the current owners of NAMA loans would renegotiate better deals and discounts on their loans etc, it's just that they couldn't do that now, politically unpalatable etc...

And of course it was never going to work in getting the banks lending again, that was a really stupid suggestion.

Should anything be exempt from the FOI act?

Nothing that costs €85 Billion.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on February 04, 2011, 11:06:34 AM
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2011/0204/1224288983224.html

"There is reason for hope on the economy"

There isn't.  It is f**ked as long as the banks stay as they are.
And that is what all the share prices are saying.   
I suppose the IT and RTE 's main job now is to prevent a bank run.

http://www.centralbank.ie/data/site/Commentary%20QFA%20ref%20Q3%202010%20january%2025.pdf
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on February 05, 2011, 03:29:01 PM
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/state-may-see-sharp-rise-in-interest-rate-for-eu-loans-2526657.html (http://www.independent.ie/national-news/state-may-see-sharp-rise-in-interest-rate-for-eu-loans-2526657.html)

The next tranche of the EU part of the Bailout may well have a higher interest rate.

IRELAND could have to pay as much as 6.5pc on the next tranche of EU money, based on current market rates.

As the terms of the EU/IMF bailout became the central issue in the General Election, one analyst said that while the cost of EU money was increasing, new proposals from the IMF could knock 1pc off the cost of its loans.

"I pointed out to an Oireachtas joint committee that EU money could go above 6pc," said Professor Karl Whelan of University College Dublin.

"The quoted 5.8pc average cost of the first EU loans was based on market rates last November, but rates have risen significantly since then."

There could be better news on the €25bn coming from the IMF. Proposals to double the amounts that member countries contribute to the IMF could mean lower rates on future drawdowns over the next four years.

"This could take a year. But if it goes through, it could knock around one percentage point off the IMF rate, bringing it below 5pc," Dr Whelan said.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: gerrykeegan on February 06, 2011, 10:24:13 AM
http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2011/03/michael-lewis-ireland-201103
More from Vanity Fair
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on February 07, 2011, 09:35:28 PM
This is very good

http://newleftreview.org/?view=2876&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=nlr67

especially about Norn Irn and the Shinners
Title: Bank Guarantee was for 'Constructive ambiguity'
Post by: muppet on February 08, 2011, 01:34:19 AM
http://www.tribune.ie/business/news/article/2011/jan/30/blanket-bank-guarantee-was-to-avoid-ecb-and-market/ (http://www.tribune.ie/business/news/article/2011/jan/30/blanket-bank-guarantee-was-to-avoid-ecb-and-market/)

Blanket bank guarantee was to avoid ECB and market scrutiny

Report: 'It is in the interests of the public that the situation is solved before it enters the public domain'
Jon Ihle

The banking guarantee, which has cost the taxpayer €46bn so far, was originally intended to allow the Central Bank to provide emergency funding to the collapsing financial sector without it being noticed by the ECB or the markets, according to documents recently released by the Department of Finance.

Legal and strategic advice contained in a confidential 'scoping paper' from January 2008 states repeatedly that a "comprehensive guarantee would be necessary" for the Central Bank to step in with emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) to help Ireland's ailing banks.


"If there is any concern that a financial institution seeking ELA is insolvent, the [Central Bank] would not be in a position to provide liquidity support without the question of some guarantee arising from the Exchequer," the paper said.

The documents also show the department was committed to a policy of "constructive ambiguity" early in the financial crisis to keep capital markets and the Irish public in the dark about its strategy.

"It is in the interests of the public that the situation is solved before it enters the public domain in order to prevent contagion," one briefing note stated.

Officials considered being transparent about the government's preparations to "help support public confidence" in the banks, but feared openness could jeopardise financial stability.

According to the documents, officials were searching for a way to give the Minister for Finance and the Central Bank latitude to intervene in the market together to help failing banks without violating either Irish or European law or signalling to the markets and public that Irish banks were failing.

"If an insolvent bank sought ELA, the [Central Bank] would be legally prohibited from extending it. However, if the bank was systemically important and the government agreed to extend a guarantee to its liabilities, then this would turn it from an insolvent bank into an illiquid but solvent one... so that the [Central Bank] could inject liquidity to prevent contagion."

The papers indicate that Central Bank officials wanted recourse to the public purse before providing help, as the European Central Bank could have prohibited emergency funding if it was "deemed to interfere with monetary policy".

Central Bank statistics from 2008 showed total ELA increased fourfold to more than €12bn in the year leading up to the guarantee. The latest figures show the Central Bank has lent €51bn in ELA money to Irish banks.

The January 2008 scoping paper also noted the "preferred outcome" for an insolvent bank was "failure and subsequent orderly wind-down" to prevent the costs of the insolvency transferring to the state.

That followed principles adopted by European finance ministers in October 2007 and referenced in the Department of Finance documents, which said creditors and uninsured depositors "should expect to face losses" in a bank failure.

The Ecofin Council agreement also said EU member states should share the fiscal burden when a failed bank had significant cross-border activities.


To my simple mind the above represents Lenihan's department apparently intentionally misleading the State, the markets and possibly the ECB. If that is the case then he should be investigated for fraud, as should everyone else involved or aware of the strategy. Of course that could include other cabinet members.

So far no one has explained how this €51 Billion in ELAs will be paid for.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on February 08, 2011, 09:24:37 AM
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/banks-pay-less-than-3pc-interest-on-euro51bn-of-emergency-funding-2529378.html (http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/banks-pay-less-than-3pc-interest-on-euro51bn-of-emergency-funding-2529378.html)

The Irish Independent understands there is an "explicit" government guarantee surrounding all ELA lending, so if the banks can't repay the cash, the State will have to.

News of Ireland's €51bn ELA operations sent shockwaves around the globe, with some speculating that the manoeuvres could threaten the solvency of our Central Bank.

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/boi-abandons-plan-to-raise-euro22bn-by-capital-deadline-2529385.html (http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/boi-abandons-plan-to-raise-euro22bn-by-capital-deadline-2529385.html)

BANK of Ireland has abandoned all hope of raising private cash to meet its latest capital target, after it was told in no uncertain terms the deadline would not be pushed out beyond February 28.

The bank is now focusing all its energies on getting a temporary injection of €1.4bn from the State which would be repaid before the end of 2011.

The Irish Independent also understands that any deal is likely to see the bank pay a "premium" to the Government for the bridging loan, though the details of this have yet to be worked out.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on February 08, 2011, 07:40:04 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0208/anglo-business.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0208/anglo-business.html)

The High Court has directed that an auction of the deposits and corresponding assets of Anglo Irish Bank and Irish Nationwide Building Society can take place immediately.

News At One: First step in wind down of Anglo and Irish Nationwide

The High Court has directed that an auction of the deposits and corresponding assets of Anglo Irish Bank and Irish Nationwide Building Society can take place immediately.
The move follows an application by the Minister for Finance to the court and is the first step in the winding down of the two institutions.
The winding down of the institutions and the transfer of their deposits is required as part of the agreement between the State and the EU and IMF.
Meanwhile, Anglo Irish Bank expects to report a €17.6 billion loss for last year.
Read the Department of Finance's explanation of the move here
Many of the financial details involved in today's court application were kept confidential on the basis that they are commercially sensitive. The fact that this application was being made could not be reported until Mr Justice Brian McGovern had made his order. This was to prevent the application from triggering default clauses in certain bonds.
The court was told that the transfer of parts of the business of the banks might be said to be a cessation of business under the terms of the bonds but the judge's order overrides that possibility. Lawyers for RTE and the Irish Times were in court.
Senior Counsel Bryan Murray for the Minister said the application was to enable the re-organisation of the institutions and was essential to ensure their stability. It was also required as a condition of the EU and IMF programme of support, he said.
He said the external financial authorities were pressing very heavily for this transfer to take place as quickly as possible. He said Anglo and Irish Nationwide were continuing to act as destabilising forces in the financial system. Mr Murray said it was very important this was dealt with as quickly as possible.
The auction of deposits was an attempt to preserve the financial position of the institutions by minimising losses in the future. He said plans were in place to mitigate possible risks with this auction raised by the Governor of the Central Bank. These risks were not disclosed in court.
The agreement with the EU and IMF also involves Anglo formulating a detailed plan for the rationalisation, including the possible closure ,of Anglo's offices in the UK and its branches in Vienna, Dusseldorf and Jersey and giving it to the NTMA no later than March 31.
The court was told that both Anglo and Irish Nationwide were consenting to the directions order. It was intended to combine both institutions into a single bank which would be 100% Government owned, and this auction of deposits and assets at book value had to take place before such a merger.
The judge made the order and said that because this was a matter of exceptional public importance, redacted versions of the sworn documents and order should be made available to the media as soon as possible.
The Department of Finance said no action needed to be taken by depositors following the court's action, adding that depositors in both institutions remained 'fully secure'.
Anglo set for €17.6 billion 2010 loss
Anglo Irish Bank says it is expecting to report a loss of €17.6 billion for 2010. In a trading update, the bank said this would include a loss of €11.5 billion on assets transferred to the National Asset Management Agency and €7.8 billion set aside to cover other loan losses.
The 2010 loss would set a new record for an Irish company, beating the €12.7 billion Anglo recorded for 2009.
The bank also said deposits had dropped from €27.2 billion at the end of 2009 to just over €11 billion at the end of last year. Borrowing from the ECB and Irish Central Bank almost doubled to €45 billion.
The nationalised bank expects to transfer another €1.1 billion of loans to NAMA. It said it had received State support of €29.3 billion over the past two years.
Anglo said it employed just under 1,300 people at the end of 2010, down 16% from a year earlier.
When the loan losses are excluded, the nationalised bank made an operating profit of €1.8 billion, mainly due to a buyback of some of its subordinated bonds.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on February 09, 2011, 02:21:20 AM
http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcR7fPCCLzULlO27_PMV6-g0_O2A0QU895vGdz2Gm91TNM1KTyQ (http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcR7fPCCLzULlO27_PMV6-g0_O2A0QU895vGdz2Gm91TNM1KTyQ)

Another extract from that long Vanity Fair article by Michael Lewis.

Michael Lewis: This Merill Lynch Analyst (And Zoologist) Saw The Irish Collapse Coming And Was Gagged When He Sent Out A Warning

When Michael Lewis went to Ireland to investigate who and what brought the Irish economy to its knees for Vanity Fair, he discovered a man called Philip Ingram.
At the height of the financial crisis, Ingram was an analyst for Merrill Lynch.
Ingram -- spare a few online mentions for reports he wrote back in the day -- isn't a major online presence.
We know from Lewis' article though that he's a "quirky" 20-something, who had studied zoology at Cambridge, and who tried to warn the Irish finance ministry that the economy was about to collapse because of bad lending practices.
After which, he was basically gagged.
See, back in September 2008, Irish finance minister Brian Lenihan got into a bit of a state. He drove 45 minutes outside Dublin to visit his buddy David McWilliams, a journalist and former economist with UBS, to ask what he should do about the banks, Lewis writes.
A week after that crisis meeting, the finance department hired Merrill Lynch to advise it on the bank dilemma.
And that's when Philip Ingram, "the bank analyst who had been most prescient and interesting about the Irish banks," stepped into the picture.
According to Vanity Fair,
Ingram had done something original and useful: he'd shined a new light on the way Irish banks lent against commercial real estate. Ingram was skeptical of the Irish banks... To Ingram's eyes, there undoubtedly appeared to be a vast difference between what the Irish banks were saying and what was really happening.
So he set out to find out what the real story was, and on March 13, 2008, published his findings. It was an incriminating account of the noxious methods banks were using to lend to commercial real estate, and according to Lewis, most of the report quoted word-for-word what British market insiders had told him.
According to the report, "the Irish banks were making far riskier loans in Ireland than they were in Britain, but even in Britain... they were the nuttiest lenders around." (Apparently Anglo Irish, Bank of Ireland, and A.I.B. were the worst of all).
When Ingram released his report, it was apparently the "hottest read in the London financial markets."
Well, it was for about two hours, because Merrill Lynch retracted it.
Merrill had been an underwriter of Anglo Irish's bonds, as well as a broker to A.I.B. Obviously when they (Anglo and/or AIB - my edit - Muppet) saw Ingram's report, they lost it and slammed Merrill with threats that they'd be on their merry way unless something was done.
"Ingram's superiors at Merrill Lynch hauled him into meetings with in-house lawyers, who toned down the report's pointed language and purged it of its damning quotes from market insiders, including its many references to Irish banks.
And from that moment everything Ingram wrote about Irish banks was edited, and bowdlerized by Merrill Lynch's lawyers."
Finally, at the end of 2008, he was fired. Though at least now with Lewis' piece, his efforts will be remembered.



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/merill-lynch-analyst-and-zoologist-saw-the-irish-collapse-coming-michael-lewis-vanity-fair-2011-2#ixzz1DQLj4Zqp

Very interesting timing there. 4 days after the report was released the Anglo share price fell dramatically and this led to the Golden 10 who were going to teach the markets a lesson.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2011/0110/1224287157384.html (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2011/0110/1224287157384.html)

Seán Fitzpatrick's own words:

Brian Cowen : On March 17th, 2008, the Anglo share price fell by 15 per cent and the board was concerned there might be a run on deposits. Director Fintan Drury, a friend of Brian Cowen, suggested to FitzPatrick that he call the then minister for finance, who was in Kuala Lumpur.
FitzPatrick and Cowen spoke "about the whole issue of rumours going round about the bank that were unfounded. He just said yeah. He was just taking it all in."

"I told him that [Seán] Quinn had through CFDs, I think. I am not sure. What I said was, what was really happening was that pressure was coming on from the shorters, these guys, the hedge funds, trying to get Quinn."

On the same day a spokesman for Mr Cowen issued a statement saying the fall in the price of Anglo and other bank shares was an international development as opposed to a local one.

Brian Cowen attended a dinner in Anglo's Heritage House on St Stephen's Green, Dublin, on April 24th, 2008. Director Fintan Drury introduced the then Minister for Finance to the other directors and executives. FitzPatrick says he didn't discuss the Quinn situation with Cowen.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on February 09, 2011, 08:49:16 AM
Muppet

This is a very good analysis of the FUBR state of the banks 

http://www.irisheconomy.ie/Notes/IrishEconomyNote13.pdf

This failure has many fathers. lLnihan, the managements, the DoF, the ECB, The EU
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on February 09, 2011, 11:19:23 AM
Quote from: seafoid on February 09, 2011, 08:49:16 AM
Muppet

This is a very good analysis of the FUBR state of the banks 

http://www.irisheconomy.ie/Notes/IrishEconomyNote13.pdf

This failure has many fathers. lLnihan, the managements, the DoF, the ECB, The EU

Very good analysis Seafoid, I even understand some of it. Well worth reading though for anyone ordinary Joe like myself trying to see through the lies.

Some interesting points in it.

* Monetary policy for EU zone is the responsibilty of the ECB.
* Fiscal policy is with the National authorities.
* Poor EU monetary policy led to EU money naturally going to where the growth was, unrestricted.
* Poor local fiscal policy led to the boom and bust.
* Lehman's merely showed the Irish that what they incompetently thought was a liquidity problem was actually a solvency one.
* The Guarantee was introduced to allow continued funding to maintain solvency, making a complete liar of Lenihan in just about everything he said about it. "cheapest bailout', "to get the banks lending etc".
* Before the Guarantee Irish banks were already heavily reliant on EU funding, after it they were dependent on it.
* Poor EU monetary policy and poor fiscal oversight in Ireland created the problem. Ireland's fiscal needs require it now to write down some of the debt, but EU monetary policy has trumped that requirement and wont allow it. (Irish taxpayer to pick up the tab)
* Having screwed Ireland to maintain its EU policy (thank you Brian Lenihan) the EU now want to cherry pick our fiscal policy for their own benefit (e.g. Corporate tax rate).

I am struggling to think of any foreign intervention anywhere, other than some by the United Nations, in a country that wasn't abused for the benefit of the outsiders and to the cost of the locals. That might make me sound like a little Irelander but the structure of our finances is not for our benefit anymore. It is for the benefit of foreigners, who are as responsible as FF/PD/Regulator/Central Bank/Anglo/AIB etc are but it will be to our personal cost.

Odd as it sounds Sinn Fein may be on the right track with fiscal policy. Immediately after the election we need a huge majority of the Dail behind such a move and then send a team of hard nosed negotiators along with some clever individuals to Europe. They don't have to be politicians either.

My only suggestions to send to Europe would be the likes of Morgan Kelly as an advisor and maybe a cross-party team including Noonan and maybe Ruairi Quinn among others.



Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on February 09, 2011, 05:20:04 PM
Are we having yet another banking crisis this week and ignoring it, while the world deals with it?

http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2011/02/09/impending-crisis-in-irish-banking-sector-with-arrival-of-imfecbeu-teams/ (http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2011/02/09/impending-crisis-in-irish-banking-sector-with-arrival-of-imfecbeu-teams/)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: armaghniac on February 09, 2011, 09:02:40 PM
We were warned, by some.
http://www.youtube.com/v/cxtkjZFfuZI (http://www.youtube.com/v/cxtkjZFfuZI)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on February 09, 2011, 09:24:29 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on February 09, 2011, 09:02:40 PM
We were warned, by some.
http://www.youtube.com/v/cxtkjZFfuZI (http://www.youtube.com/v/cxtkjZFfuZI)
in fairness that was 2003, prices aren't that far below that yet, McWilliams was uncannily accurate though.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on February 09, 2011, 09:29:03 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 09, 2011, 11:19:23 AM
Quote from: seafoid on February 09, 2011, 08:49:16 AM
Muppet

This is a very good analysis of the FUBR state of the banks 

http://www.irisheconomy.ie/Notes/IrishEconomyNote13.pdf

This failure has many fathers. lLnihan, the managements, the DoF, the ECB, The EU

Very good analysis Seafoid, I even understand some of it. Well worth reading though for anyone ordinary Joe like myself trying to see through the lies.

Some interesting points in it.

* Monetary policy for EU zone is the responsibilty of the ECB.
* Fiscal policy is with the National authorities.
* Poor EU monetary policy led to EU money naturally going to where the growth was, unrestricted.
* Poor local fiscal policy led to the boom and bust.
* Lehman's merely showed the Irish that what they incompetently thought was a liquidity problem was actually a solvency one.
* The Guarantee was introduced to allow continued funding to maintain solvency, making a complete liar of Lenihan in just about everything he said about it. "cheapest bailout', "to get the banks lending etc".
* Before the Guarantee Irish banks were already heavily reliant on EU funding, after it they were dependent on it.
* Poor EU monetary policy and poor fiscal oversight in Ireland created the problem. Ireland's fiscal needs require it now to write down some of the debt, but EU monetary policy has trumped that requirement and wont allow it. (Irish taxpayer to pick up the tab)
* Having screwed Ireland to maintain its EU policy (thank you Brian Lenihan) the EU now want to cherry pick our fiscal policy for their own benefit (e.g. Corporate tax rate).

I am struggling to think of any foreign intervention anywhere, other than some by the United Nations, in a country that wasn't abused for the benefit of the outsiders and to the cost of the locals. That might make me sound like a little Irelander but the structure of our finances is not for our benefit anymore. It is for the benefit of foreigners, who are as responsible as FF/PD/Regulator/Central Bank/Anglo/AIB etc are but it will be to our personal cost. Odd as it sounds Sinn Fein may be on the right track with fiscal policy. Immediately after the election we need a huge majority of the Dail behind such a move and then send a team of hard nosed negotiators along with some clever individuals to Europe. They don't have to be politicians either. My only suggestions to send to Europe would be the likes of Morgan Kelly as an advisor and maybe a cross-party team including Noonan and maybe Ruairi Quinn among others.

The behaviour of the EU at all stages has been appalling.  There was no oversight of what the Central Bank here was doing.  Sure the Irish regulator was useless as was Lenihan but the guarantee was touted around Brussels in September 08 and nobody said anything.  Asking Irish taxpayers to pony up for Bank bondholders to save French and German banks having to write down assets on their balance sheets is criminal.  By this stage the banks are FUBR.  There is no way any of them can stand independently without the guarantee. The volume of money that the ECB has pumped in to replace departing deposits is over 130bn Euro.  Ireland isn't going to make it to 2013 without defaulting. What will that mean for insurance companies and other institutions holding Irish debt? What will it mean for public service employees expecting their salaries when Ireland is cut off from all bond markets ?   
Title: world class anglo-irish
Post by: bcarrier on February 09, 2011, 10:31:26 PM
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/02/09/the-worlds-dumbest-banks/
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on February 09, 2011, 10:46:41 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 09, 2011, 09:29:03 PMThe behaviour of the EU at all stages has been appalling.  There was no oversight of what the Central Bank here was doing.
I think that's just another example of people refusing to take responsibility for their actions.

If the EU had tried to intervene in the ways that many poor victimised irish people seem to think they should have, there'd have been huge outcries about them going beyond their remit, about our sovereignty being eroded, about how their jealously was driving them to ruin it all for us etc etc.

Time and again the ECB told the irish govt that it was not their job to micromanage the rish economy, their remit was eurozone inflation, with growth another lesser target.

The ECB told the irish govt that there were other strategies that they should effect to control the internal money supply, proper bak regulation (and they specified that the govt should increase the reserves that banks should be required to retain), higher taxes etc, these are basic controls that every economy can use, but the irish govt, in a time of record low interest rates, asset bubbles all over the place, what do they do - oh yes, they lower personal taxes and increase govt spending, petrol on the already raging bonfire and yet we blame the EU for f**king us over??

Since Ireland makes up such a tiny percentage of that economy, what was the ECB to do?  Of course Ireland shouldn't have been in the euro in the first place and should leave now if it won't accept the inevitability of common fiscal policies, maybe we should the blame at the hands of however decided that we join the euro?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on February 09, 2011, 10:50:37 PM
Quote"We are now in the paradoxical situation where the survival of the banks is more assured that the survival of those who saved it."

Wolfgang Münchau
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on February 17, 2011, 11:46:07 AM
The situation just got worse.

Spain has failed to sell all of their bonds today.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-17/spanish-government-bonds-fall-as-debt-sale-falls-short-of-treasury-target.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-17/spanish-government-bonds-fall-as-debt-sale-falls-short-of-treasury-target.html)

In other news, turns out our banks are issuing debt to themselves all guaranteed by Lenihan's Bank Guarantee. Depending on the extent that this has gone on, the bondholders that everyone wants burning may now be mainly Irish (Guaranteed by the State) banks. So we might have to burn ourselves.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2011/0217/1224290024749.html (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2011/0217/1224290024749.html)

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on February 23, 2011, 08:12:36 PM
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/436234b8-3ebb-11e0-834e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1EoOKF46c (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/436234b8-3ebb-11e0-834e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1EoOKF46c)

You have to register to read it but registration is free.

It says we can't pay back the debt and outlines our limited options.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on February 27, 2011, 07:27:29 PM
From Brian Lucey on twitter: Oh holy sweet God.

http://www.news.com.au/business/ireland-sought-libyan-bailout/story-fn7mjon9-1226013196144 (http://www.news.com.au/business/ireland-sought-libyan-bailout/story-fn7mjon9-1226013196144)

Ireland sought Libyan bailout

THE Irish government attempted to secure a multi-billion euro bailout for the country's struggling banks from Colonel Moamar Ghadafi's international investment fund in December but failed because Libya dismissed it as a low-level investment.
National Treasury Management Agency representatives went to the North African state in a bid to get cash to prop up the Bank of Ireland, Allied Irish Banks or Anglo Irish Bank - the latter two of which were nationalized due to disastrous property loans - by selling an equity stake in one or more of them, according to British newspaper "The Sunday Times".
Bank of Ireland is now seeking to tap investors for STG2 billion ($2.75 billion) to stave off full nationalisation.
But negotiations crumbled after the Libyan Investment Authority, which controls more than $64 billion of assets, said the banks were too small for it to consider.
The amount of money sought by the Irish delegation was unclear, though it was believed that some advisers - who feared public outrage would be triggered by financial links to a country accused of arming the Irish Republican Army during the 1970s and 1980s - thought that any amount would be too high.

It was also understood that Libya declined to invest because of regulatory burdens that would have drawn unwanted attention to its financial activities.
Both Ghadafi and Ireland are in the process of political upheaval, though in very different forms.
Ghadafi, whose regime is being rocked by a popular revolt to the point that he is said to have lost control of several major cities in the country's east, is maintaining his calls for a bloody crackdown that reportedly killed thousands so far.
High-profile politicians and diplomats have already jumped ship amid the violence, and international condemnation has been swift and harsh.
Ireland, on the other hand, opened polling booths Friday after Prime Minister Brian Cowen announced earlier in February that his position was no longer tenable and dissolved parliament so an early election could be called.
The leader until recently of Fianna Fail, the dominant force in Irish politics since the 1930s, became the first sitting Irish prime minister not to stand for re-election - but despite his replacement as party leader by Michael Martin, Cowen admitted that his party suffered a huge defeat as voters turned out to express their dissatisfaction with the country's lingering economic malaise.
Ireland's incoming government, on track to be a Fine Gael-led coalition, is widely expected to take a much stronger stance with the country's financial institutions in an effort to jump-start the economy and restore stability, not least by trying to renegotiate an STG85 billion loan deal with the IMF and EU.


Read more: http://www.news.com.au/business/ireland-sought-libyan-bailout/story-fn7mjon9-1226013196144#ixzz1FBmgSNeb
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on February 27, 2011, 09:29:29 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 27, 2011, 07:27:29 PM
From Brian Lucey on twitter: Oh holy sweet God.

http://www.news.com.au/business/ireland-sought-libyan-bailout/story-fn7mjon9-1226013196144 (http://www.news.com.au/business/ireland-sought-libyan-bailout/story-fn7mjon9-1226013196144)

Ireland sought Libyan bailout

THE Irish government attempted to secure a multi-billion euro bailout for the country's struggling banks from Colonel Moamar Ghadafi's international investment fund in December but failed because Libya dismissed it as a low-level investment.
National Treasury Management Agency representatives went to the North African state in a bid to get cash to prop up the Bank of Ireland, Allied Irish Banks or Anglo Irish Bank - the latter two of which were nationalized due to disastrous property loans - by selling an equity stake in one or more of them, according to British newspaper "The Sunday Times".
Bank of Ireland is now seeking to tap investors for STG2 billion ($2.75 billion) to stave off full nationalisation.
But negotiations crumbled after the Libyan Investment Authority, which controls more than $64 billion of assets, said the banks were too small for it to consider.
The amount of money sought by the Irish delegation was unclear, though it was believed that some advisers - who feared public outrage would be triggered by financial links to a country accused of arming the Irish Republican Army during the 1970s and 1980s - thought that any amount would be too high.

It was also understood that Libya declined to invest because of regulatory burdens that would have drawn unwanted attention to its financial activities.
Both Ghadafi and Ireland are in the process of political upheaval, though in very different forms.
Ghadafi, whose regime is being rocked by a popular revolt to the point that he is said to have lost control of several major cities in the country's east, is maintaining his calls for a bloody crackdown that reportedly killed thousands so far.
High-profile politicians and diplomats have already jumped ship amid the violence, and international condemnation has been swift and harsh.
Ireland, on the other hand, opened polling booths Friday after Prime Minister Brian Cowen announced earlier in February that his position was no longer tenable and dissolved parliament so an early election could be called.
The leader until recently of Fianna Fail, the dominant force in Irish politics since the 1930s, became the first sitting Irish prime minister not to stand for re-election - but despite his replacement as party leader by Michael Martin, Cowen admitted that his party suffered a huge defeat as voters turned out to express their dissatisfaction with the country's lingering economic malaise.
Ireland's incoming government, on track to be a Fine Gael-led coalition, is widely expected to take a much stronger stance with the country's financial institutions in an effort to jump-start the economy and restore stability, not least by trying to renegotiate an STG85 billion loan deal with the IMF and EU.


Read more: http://www.news.com.au/business/ireland-sought-libyan-bailout/story-fn7mjon9-1226013196144#ixzz1FBmgSNeb

They should just resolve the banks and get it over with. There is nobody to buy their assets.
There is nobody who wants to invest. They are dependent on the CB and ECB for day to day funding. It is all a joke at this stage.
   

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on February 27, 2011, 10:21:40 PM
It just keeps on getting worse . There is no way out under the current bailout.
NAMA will be seen as the second worst decision in the history of the state after the guaranteee.
Your high prices in the shops  are necessary to keep property prices high to save the banks. What a joke.   

- http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/92c4dbc0-4111-11e0-bf62-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1FCTuCQDE

Irish election winners to face property clash

By John Murray Brown in Dublin

Published: February 25 2011 19:32 | Last updated: February 25 2011 19:32

Counting has started in Ireland's general election, with the next government facing an early test as campaign rhetoric collides with the reality of managing a precarious economy.

In an attempt to win over the shopkeeper class, both the centre-right Fine Gael party and centre-left Labour party, which are widely tipped to form a coalition government, promised to allow a reduction in rents paid on commercial property by businesses and shops – many struggling in the continuing recession.


Ireland's hard-pressed property industry is bracing itself for a fresh battle with the country's political leaders over the issue.

Analysts say a move to unpick upwards-only rental contracts will trigger further falls in capital values. They say this could undermine pension investments and alienate foreign buyers at a critical time, when the state is trying to offload billions of euros of property loans acquired as part of its bank rescue.

The repercussions are potentially serious, given Ireland's dependence on foreign investment to stimulate a recovery.

Bill Nowlan, a chartered surveyor and managing partner of a private property investment firm, gave warning of an "Armageddon in the property and banking industries".

From Monday, under legislation passed by the outgoing Fianna Fáil government, all upwards-only rent review clauses are banned in new lease agreements.

In an attempt to outflank Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Labour promised to go further by allowing existing tenants – those with lease agreements up to 30 years old – to have their terms changed and rent cut to re­flect the economic decline.

Conor Downey, a partner with Paul Hastings, the international law firm, said this could have a damaging impact on the National Asset Management Agency (Nama), set up by the government to acquire €70bn worth of impaired property loans from the banks in an effort to cleanse the sector.

Nama completed its first big transaction this month – selling an office building for €99m ($136m) to Google, the internet search company whose European headquarters are in Dublin.

John Moran, international director with Jones Lang LaSalle surveyors, reported big foreign interest in buying Nama assets. "But this move on upwards-only rents could bring that all to a standstill."

Analysis by the consultancy Investment Property Data estimated that values could fall by almost 20 per cent if immediate rent reviews were permitted on the €2.4bn worth of properties held by institutions.

For the much bigger Nama portfolio, for which the agency paid more than €30bn, any change would have huge implications for the taxpayer in reducing the recovery values that Nama could hope to achieve. The proposal may be challenged in the courts, but while the uncertainty over valuations remains, Nama – and any other Irish property owner – will find it very hard to sell assets.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: gerrykeegan on February 28, 2011, 08:59:34 AM
Muppe...this is going to be painfull reading for you!  ;)


Ireland has bright future- The Economist

Monday, 28th February 2011 08.20am



Ireland has a bright economic future after suffering a "horrendous correction", a leading international magazine has argued.

The Economist says the country is extremely well place to recover, and adds that current pessimism among the population is excessive."Ireland is not about to return to the dark days of the 1980s," the magazine says.

"Numerically, the recession has sent living standards back only to 2002 levels.

"The flexible economy will remain attractive to multinationals seeking a toehold in Europe, especially if it keeps its low corporate tax rate."

Its report says that Ireland's painful pay corrections have led to a slimmer, fitter economy.

"Unlike other European countries, Ireland is regaining competitiveness by reducing unit labour costs.

"Exports are booming and there should be a current account surplus this year for the first time in over a decade." While the domestic consumer market has remained alarmingly weak, not all of the progress made since the mid 1990s had been lost. "Not all of the Celtic Tiger gains have been squandered. An optimistic entrepreneurial spirit emerged that will not be crushed by a few years of recession. "Higher education has expanded dramatically; a generation has grown up knowing nothing but prosperity. "The country has been overcome by excessive pessimism."


Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on February 28, 2011, 10:01:26 AM
Gerry

Nothing is going anywhere until the banks are sorted out.
They are all dead.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: gerrykeegan on February 28, 2011, 10:26:55 AM
Seafoid

I know that you know that and the man on the street knows it. The banks are a spectacular mess and an orderley default will happen.

But there is still huge pessimism in the country, people with little or no mortgage and secure jobs are plunging their hands deeper into their pockets to curb their spending. We need a little optimisim in the country. Young people are afraid to get on the property laddder when there is value in the market to be had. If we continue to save and curtail spending our country will struggle to recover.

I only posted it to poke Muppet!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on February 28, 2011, 10:28:56 AM
Quote from: gerrykeegan on February 28, 2011, 08:59:34 AM
Muppe...this is going to be painfull reading for you!  ;)


Ireland has bright future- The Economist

Monday, 28th February 2011 08.20am



Ireland has a bright economic future after suffering a "horrendous correction", a leading international magazine has argued.

The Economist says the country is extremely well place to recover, and adds that current pessimism among the population is excessive."Ireland is not about to return to the dark days of the 1980s," the magazine says.

"Numerically, the recession has sent living standards back only to 2002 levels.

"The flexible economy will remain attractive to multinationals seeking a toehold in Europe, especially if it keeps its low corporate tax rate."

Its report says that Ireland's painful pay corrections have led to a slimmer, fitter economy.

"Unlike other European countries, Ireland is regaining competitiveness by reducing unit labour costs.

I suppose that's why we really can't allow economists to run an economy.  Numbers are numbers, they don't really tell us anything about quality of life or the distress and stress huge swathes of the population are suffering in trying to make a monthly mortgage repayments.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on February 28, 2011, 03:46:46 PM
Quote from: gerrykeegan on February 28, 2011, 10:26:55 AM
Seafoid

I know that you know that and the man on the street knows it. The banks are a spectacular mess and an orderley default will happen.

But there is still huge pessimism in the country, people with little or no mortgage and secure jobs are plunging their hands deeper into their pockets to curb their spending. We need a little optimisim in the country. Young people are afraid to get on the property laddder when there is value in the market to be had. If we continue to save and curtail spending our country will struggle to recover.

I only posted it to poke Muppet!

I am the last GaaBoard realist.

The mess is getting messier.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on February 28, 2011, 05:02:05 PM
Muppet

I am with you all the way to the bitter end and default.
The mess is only intensifying. Everything is going in the wrong direction. Everything.   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on February 28, 2011, 05:07:45 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 28, 2011, 05:02:05 PM
Muppet

I am with you all the way to the bitter end and default.
The mess is only intensifying. Everything is going in the wrong direction. Everything.

Don't worry Joyce and Meehan will be back.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: whiskeysteve on February 28, 2011, 05:58:57 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 28, 2011, 05:02:05 PM
Muppet

I am with you all the way to the bitter end and default.
The mess is only intensifying. Everything is going in the wrong direction. Everything.

Me too. U.S. economy on a prolonged collapse, EU on a less prolonged collapse and the oil rich economies of the middle east in a bloody collapse and people still blether about Irish contagion.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on February 28, 2011, 07:12:29 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 28, 2011, 03:46:46 PM
Quote from: gerrykeegan on February 28, 2011, 10:26:55 AM
Seafoid

I know that you know that and the man on the street knows it. The banks are a spectacular mess and an orderley default will happen.

But there is still huge pessimism in the country, people with little or no mortgage and secure jobs are plunging their hands deeper into their pockets to curb their spending. We need a little optimisim in the country. Young people are afraid to get on the property laddder when there is value in the market to be had. If we continue to save and curtail spending our country will struggle to recover.

I only posted it to poke Muppet!

I am the last GaaBoard realist.

The mess is getting messier.
Cheer up muppet, Brian Lenihan said we'd turned the corner, thanks presumably to the cheapest bank bailout in history.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on February 28, 2011, 07:23:50 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 28, 2011, 05:07:45 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 28, 2011, 05:02:05 PM
Muppet

I am with you all the way to the bitter end and default.
The mess is only intensifying. Everything is going in the wrong direction. Everything.

Don't worry Joyce and Meehan will be back.

Where is the giant introspective Mayo thread this year ? 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on February 28, 2011, 07:25:09 PM
The US is  a total mess

http://www.utne.com/Politics/Fire-The-Rich-Declare-Class-Warfare.aspx

http://www.progressive.org/moyers0211.html
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on February 28, 2011, 07:33:31 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 28, 2011, 07:23:50 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 28, 2011, 05:07:45 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 28, 2011, 05:02:05 PM
Muppet

I am with you all the way to the bitter end and default.
The mess is only intensifying. Everything is going in the wrong direction. Everything.

Don't worry Joyce and Meehan will be back.

Where is the giant introspective Mayo thread this year ?

Fianna Fail took it under a CPO.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on February 28, 2011, 08:34:28 PM
http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2011/02/28/donal-omahoney-on-senior-bank-bonds/#comments

•  grumpy Says:
February 28th, 2011 at 6:47 pm
Donning a "Global Strategy" hat for a mo. Do not underestimate what is resting on the creaking prop that is the Irish taxpayer underneath the senior bonds,
In Europe and elsewhere there is widespread acceptance in the investing community that many banks are at least under capitalised and some are only pretending to be solvent - a bit like CitiBank during the Mexican fiasco.
There is a belief among many, that there is a wink wink - nudge nudge agreement among all the grown-ups in the system, that an implicit guarantee exists that no senior bondholder will take a loss. Just like Fannie and Freddie in the 'states.
Lots of people in that community think that is bonkers and that it is just a way of trying to continue the underpricing of risk as a can-kicking exercise that will result in a Zombie-Japan type scenario - without the US consumer boom to export into.
The lack of a guarantee obliging Ireland to pay off in full the senior unsecured unguaranteed bonds is a big deal for banking interests around Europe because if the logical course of action is taken by Ireland and haircuts are taken by the complacent investors, then the whole question opens up of "er, why was it again that we think an unsecured bank creditor cannot take a loss?"
If the prop breaks - or creaks so loudly that some of the believers scarper, then the act of faith that goes into bank financing will be harder to sustain and bank investors of all sorts will have to start taking a closer interest in the actual business the banks are doing. That would be a good idea.
But as I have tried to point out before you can't have it both ways. You cannot continue to have Beverly Hills style charges embedded in the economy, pay the state payroll money that is so far out of line internationally and at the same time threaten anybody with anything much. You have to make a choice.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on March 02, 2011, 11:02:12 PM
Twitter:
QuoteMichael Noonan says there were certain issues regarding the economy that the opposition had not been briefed on prior to the election.

It coming soon.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on March 03, 2011, 08:22:49 AM

Wednesday March 02 2011
We've all been there. In the bar, in a round, you know you won't have a bean when you get home but tomorrow can look after itself; you won't be seen not to pay your round. In contrast, we all know of the lad who will disappear out for a fag when his round is imminent. Such evasions are noted, especially among friends.

But, no matter how broke we are, we in Ireland will always dig deep. It is all about the shame of not having enough to pay our way, so we find the cash even when there mightn't be a sausage at home. The poorer the man, the more he pays his way.

Normally, a rich guy is much more nonchalant about not having cash on him and is not fazed by the idea that he will get you back tomorrow. But the poor lad, the one who is financially insecure, will always be the first man with his hand in his pocket. No round is too large, no double brandy too extravagant.

Sure why not make it a Remy Martin, while you're there?

He just wants to be one of the lads and if he has to scrounge the money in secret he will. The poor guy who can't afford it gets further into debt just to keep up appearances, because keeping up appearances is important.

Paying his way becomes a form of perverted personal pride.

Rather than leave the bar, he stays to pay so as no one will whisper behind his back. He is the small guy trying to act like the big lad.

Small countries that are broke often act the same way before going bust.

By pretending that we can afford the bailout, Ireland is now behaving like the poor guy at the bar, digging deep for the last few cents to keep up with a round system that he can't afford. We know that we can't afford the IMF/EU deal, even if the interest rates were half the 5.7pc, and the reason we can't afford it is that we are the poorest country in Europe. Yes the poorest. You read right -- poorer than Albania, poorer than Serbia, poorer than Bulgaria.

If the definition of wealth is the difference between your liabilities and your assets then the definition of poverty is how much greater your liabilities are than your assets.

We are the most indebted nation in Europe and although it doesn't seem like it now, we are among the poorest. Granted, our capacity to earn is higher than traditionally poor countries, but our balance sheet is wrecked. It is being kept afloat by more and more loans from foreigners.

Let's look at the figures to see just how broke is the lad buying the round.

The Central Bank of Ireland released some interesting data on Monday. In its monthly 'Money and Banking Statistics' for the first time it released a consolidated balance sheet of the guaranteed banks. It does not make for pleasant reading.

At the end of December 2010, our banks were borrowing a (net) €153.5bn from the ECB and Central Bank of Ireland. Meanwhile, guarantees extended by our government now cover €196.4bn worth of bank liabilities.

For any of us who imagined what the guarantee might look like in the crisis of September 2008 and were adamant that a timeframe be put on it and that time be used to sort the banks out, the fact that the guarantee is still in place and these banks are still open is a sick joke.

The €196.4bn does not include the €31bn of promissory notes we have issued or the €7bn of preference/ordinary shares we own in AIB and BoI or even the €4.7bn of cash we put into Anglo, Irish Nationwide and EBS.

Looking at those huge numbers, you'd nearly think for a minute that we are a rich country. But we are anything but. In fact, we are broke.

This, of course, puts Ireland in a rather ridiculous position. We cannot afford to pay our day-to-day bills, yet we are saying that we can afford to pay billions to our banks.

There is some kind of reality failure going on here. We are the lad at the bar shouting out a round he can't afford but far too proud to tell anyone of the real financial position. But deep down everyone knows.

There is a chance that our new government will face reality and admit that we are on the road to national bankruptcy.

Like many lads at the bar, penury was caused by incompetence, arrogance or a blunt refusal to face the facts.

Let there be no doubt about that. Cutting interest rates on the EU/IMF package that exists only to save the banks is not going to make any difference. Proper negotiation is needed, and if that fails, unilateral action will be required. To make that unilateral action more palatable and more democratic, it would be a good move for the new government to call a referendum on the banking stitch-up. This would ease their position and make it more difficult for the EU to actively crush Ireland.

We voted on Friday last and by today we know almost every TD who is going to be in the next Dail. During those six short days, more than 850 people will have emigrated from Ireland. This is the human face of this economic tragedy.

But maybe the people leaving now are those who can get out. There are plenty living in Ireland who cannot escape, or feel they cannot. This is the case for owners of the one in 10 mortgages that are in arrears.

In 2007, I published a book called 'The Generation Game' which focused on this generation who would have to default on their mortgages and explained that these would be the people who really paid for the boom. At the time, the usual suspects sneered and laughed at such a prophecy. Today it's a reality.

It is time to tell the ECB they are not getting their money back because, after all, this is what a Central Bank does, it is the lender of last resort. It is time to walk away from the subordinated debt holders. It is time to force a debt for equity swap for the remaining bondholders and it is time, armed with an overwhelming referendum-based mandate, to stand up for the people.

We need to stop buying rounds we can't afford. We need to stop desperately trying to be one of the lads. We lost face years ago when the clowns ridiculed the sceptics and drove this economy over the cliff. But there is always time to change and no time like right now.

www.davidmcwilliams.ie
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on March 03, 2011, 10:55:38 AM
In 2007, I published a book called 'The Generation Game' which focused on this generation who would have to default on their mortgages and explained that these would be the people who really paid for the boom. At the time, the usual suspects sneered and laughed at such a prophecy. Today it's a reality.

He also published a book called "the pope's children" about how wonderful the boom was. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on March 03, 2011, 11:22:38 AM
Quote from: seafoid on March 03, 2011, 10:55:38 AM
In 2007, I published a book called 'The Generation Game' which focused on this generation who would have to default on their mortgages and explained that these would be the people who really paid for the boom. At the time, the usual suspects sneered and laughed at such a prophecy. Today it's a reality.

He also published a book called "the pope's children" about how wonderful the boom was.
I read the first chapter and stopped as I got bored with his attempts to coin phrases that could be used world over (he invented 'celtic tiger', he claims), but I don't think the book was about the wonderfulness of the boom, i thought it was his attempt to classify the participants in the boom (DIY Declan, Breakfast roll man etc) and explain how life was different for these pope's children than for any generation before, which of course it was.
He has been more accurate than most and he was the first to go public on the bubble.  He also was involved in the guarantee and I see he has tried to throw in an excuse in that article, that what transpired as the guarantee was not what he recommended to Lenno as munched garlic together.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on March 09, 2011, 10:16:58 AM
http://www.finance.gov.ie/viewdoc.asp?DocID=6729

Minister for Finance appoints Dr. Alan Ahearne to the Central Bank Commission

The Minister for Finance, Brian Lenihan T.D., today appointed Dr. Alan Ahearne as a member of the Central Bank Commission. Dr. Ahearne's appointment is for a period of four years.

On the last day of the FF regime. Dr Ahearne was an advisor to the Minister as the economy went down the toilet.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on March 09, 2011, 04:12:57 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 09, 2011, 10:16:58 AM
http://www.finance.gov.ie/viewdoc.asp?DocID=6729

Minister for Finance appoints Dr. Alan Ahearne to the Central Bank Commission

The Minister for Finance, Brian Lenihan T.D., today appointed Dr. Alan Ahearne as a member of the Central Bank Commission. Dr. Ahearne's appointment is for a period of four years.

On the last day of the FF regime. Dr Ahearne was an advisor to the Minister as the economy went down the toilet.
Standard practice.  Time was Ahearne was one of the young bloods who was on every tv programme talking about the mess that FF had made of the economy.  He was one of Lenno's first appointments iirc.  Truth is, it's maybe easier to stand outside and pontificate than try and fix the mess you've found yourself in.  It'd be interesting to hear Ahearne explain the actions of the last few years.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: ludermor on March 09, 2011, 05:10:36 PM
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/nama-to-pocket-euro150m-profit-on-uk-property-deal-2571390.html
NAMA is in line for a profit of almost €150m on a property deal in central London, as the agency begins offloading some of its trophy assets in the UK market.

A property in the affluent Grosvenor Square area, near Oxford Street, is the asset at the centre of the deal.

The loan used to buy the property was originally given out by Michael Fingleton's Irish Nationwide, but was transferred to NAMA last year, making the agency the legal owner of the loan.

It is understood a UK consortium behind the property, at 20/21 Grosvenor Square, has now paid the entire loan back to NAMA, leaving the agency sitting on a major profit.

NAMA declined yesterday to comment on the details.

According to a report in the UK trade journal Estates Gazette, the consortium will pay NAMA back the entire loan Irish Nationwide originally gave out, about €290m.

However, it is understood NAMA only paid half this amount when it bought the loan from Irish Nationwide. If that is the case, it means a profit of almost €150m for NAMA.

It is estimated that 25pc of NAMA's assets are in the UK, which means it has access to assets worth €19bn there.

The UK market has recovered strongly in the past two years while the downturn here has been more severe.

As a result, NAMA is likely to do a number of deals in the UK this year as it tries to break even or make a profit by the time it is wound up in about 10 years.

Until recently, the Grosvenor Square building was the headquarters of the US Navy in Europe, but is far better known from the 1940s when it was the European headquarters of Dwight Eisenhower, supreme commander of the Allied forces.

The building is close to the US Embassy and some of the city's most upmarket restaurants, including one owned by celebrity chef Gordon Ramsay.

The prime location is likely to mean the consortium was able to pay off NAMA by doing a refinancing deal with another bank.

NAMA refused to comment on suggestions it has also won the right to a 'claw back' arrangement, where if the property is sold in future to another buyer at a higher price than NAMA was paid, it will get a share of the proceeds.

The agency is also negotiating to sell its interest in a property in Mayfair. In this case, the original loan was advanced to developer Derek Quinlan.

NAMA disclosed its latest performance last week, showing that 75pc of its loans are "non-performing", meaning they are in arrears of some kind.

However, it is planning to restructure many of these loans with developers -- the interest rates on loans will be lowered and the term of the loans extended.

As a result of this, the proportion of so-called "non performing'' loans will drop.

Development

While NAMA is selling off loans on prime property, the land and development assets it owns are likely to be kept off the market for some time.

The amount of loans the agency is taking will also fall.

This week, opposition parties said the agency would get no further loans, despite the IMF/EU insisting that those worth less than €20m should be moved into the agency.

- Emmet Oliver Deputy Business Editor

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on March 09, 2011, 05:16:49 PM
That's sort of good news, of course since we also own Irish Nationwide it means that the taxpayer has taken a loss of the original €290M less the amount paid by NAMA, that's a loss of approx €150M, thus when balanced against the profit obtained by NAMA we've broken even.  That's before the professional fees of NAMA advisers, selling costs and bailout interest at 5.8% on the €290M etc are deducted.
Still, it's heartening that we nearly broke even on that one (which was I'd imagine one of the prime assets held by NAMA).
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on March 14, 2011, 01:50:46 PM
I think we are going to see lot of movement on the banks over the next short while . It looks as thought things are going to come to a head. The ECB/CB can't keep on pumping money into them. An article in the Sindo yesterday estimated 25bn required in the latest tranche. How much after that?  The IMF deal is unworkable says Colm McCarthy.
Plus the budget deficit isn't going anywhere. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on March 14, 2011, 02:22:39 PM
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/gene-kerrigan/gene-kerrigan-kennys-good-intentions-wont-save-day-2577441.html (http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/gene-kerrigan/gene-kerrigan-kennys-good-intentions-wont-save-day-2577441.html)

When will the penny drop that we are just completely beyond saving?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on March 14, 2011, 02:23:17 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 14, 2011, 01:50:46 PM
I think we are going to see lot of movement on the banks over the next short while . It looks as thought things are going to come to a head. The ECB/CB can't keep on pumping money into them. An article in the Sindo yesterday estimated 25bn required in the latest tranche. How much after that?  The IMF deal is unworkable says Colm McCarthy.
Plus the budget deficit isn't going anywhere.

I agree and this reported snubbing of Ireland, by Merkel doesn't make sense. If Sarkozy and herself simply snub us, the Eurozone could come apart. This isn't about a rate anymore, it is about how we default.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: orangeman on March 14, 2011, 02:27:01 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 14, 2011, 02:23:17 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 14, 2011, 01:50:46 PM
I think we are going to see lot of movement on the banks over the next short while . It looks as thought things are going to come to a head. The ECB/CB can't keep on pumping money into them. An article in the Sindo yesterday estimated 25bn required in the latest tranche. How much after that?  The IMF deal is unworkable says Colm McCarthy.
Plus the budget deficit isn't going anywhere.

I agree and this reported snubbing of Ireland, by Merkel doesn't make sense. If Sarkozy and herself simply snub us, the Eurozone could come apart. This isn't about a rate anymore, it is about how we default.
[/b]


As bad as that ? We're in bigger trouble than most people appreciate.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on March 14, 2011, 02:32:56 PM
Quote from: orangeman on March 14, 2011, 02:27:01 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 14, 2011, 02:23:17 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 14, 2011, 01:50:46 PM
I think we are going to see lot of movement on the banks over the next short while . It looks as thought things are going to come to a head. The ECB/CB can't keep on pumping money into them. An article in the Sindo yesterday estimated 25bn required in the latest tranche. How much after that?  The IMF deal is unworkable says Colm McCarthy.
Plus the budget deficit isn't going anywhere.

I agree and this reported snubbing of Ireland, by Merkel doesn't make sense. If Sarkozy and herself simply snub us, the Eurozone could come apart. This isn't about a rate anymore, it is about how we default.
[/b]


As bad as that ? We're in bigger trouble than most people appreciate.

If it is done right it might be a good thing for us.

A deal will be done though, hence the chest thumping by the main interests before they get into the room.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on March 14, 2011, 03:33:24 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 14, 2011, 02:32:56 PM
Quote from: orangeman on March 14, 2011, 02:27:01 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 14, 2011, 02:23:17 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 14, 2011, 01:50:46 PM
I think we are going to see lot of movement on the banks over the next short while . It looks as thought things are going to come to a head. The ECB/CB can't keep on pumping money into them. An article in the Sindo yesterday estimated 25bn required in the latest tranche. How much after that?  The IMF deal is unworkable says Colm McCarthy.
Plus the budget deficit isn't going anywhere.

I agree and this reported snubbing of Ireland, by Merkel doesn't make sense. If Sarkozy and herself simply snub us, the Eurozone could come apart. This isn't about a rate anymore, it is about how we default.
[/b]


As bad as that ? We're in bigger trouble than most people appreciate.

If it is done right it might be a good thing for us.

A deal will be done though, hence the chest thumping by the main interests before they get into the room.

The budget deficit will have to be brought closer to zero before there is any sort of a default. Did anyone see the Sindo rich list yesterday? there is plenty of money in Ireland.  And don't forget all the assets that have been placed abroad well out of the reach of NAMA. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on March 14, 2011, 03:51:07 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 14, 2011, 03:33:24 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 14, 2011, 02:32:56 PM
Quote from: orangeman on March 14, 2011, 02:27:01 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 14, 2011, 02:23:17 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 14, 2011, 01:50:46 PM
I think we are going to see lot of movement on the banks over the next short while . It looks as thought things are going to come to a head. The ECB/CB can't keep on pumping money into them. An article in the Sindo yesterday estimated 25bn required in the latest tranche. How much after that?  The IMF deal is unworkable says Colm McCarthy.
Plus the budget deficit isn't going anywhere.

I agree and this reported snubbing of Ireland, by Merkel doesn't make sense. If Sarkozy and herself simply snub us, the Eurozone could come apart. This isn't about a rate anymore, it is about how we default.
[/b]


As bad as that ? We're in bigger trouble than most people appreciate.

If it is done right it might be a good thing for us.

A deal will be done though, hence the chest thumping by the main interests before they get into the room.

The budget deficit will have to be brought closer to zero before there is any sort of a default. Did anyone see the Sindo rich list yesterday? there is plenty of money in Ireland.  And don't forget all the assets that have been placed abroad well out of the reach of NAMA.

This will be part of the terms of the deal.

Interesting that the media now are talking a bit more freely about the possible outcomes. Under Lenihan very few were willing to go into print explaining what was happening. Kenny said in his opening speech that he is about honesty so he can hardly gag the media so soon. All of this gives the perception of things moving rapidly downhill when in fact it is just us, the public, being brought up to date finally.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on March 14, 2011, 04:11:03 PM
I would be very concerned about the effect on the average punter if the budget deficit
has to go to zero pronto.  Everything would have to be cut by 40%. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on March 14, 2011, 04:30:30 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 14, 2011, 04:11:03 PM
I would be very concerned about the effect on the average punter if the budget deficit
has to go to zero pronto.  Everything would have to be cut by 40%.

The alternative is to go cap in hand again to the EU/IMF to fill the banking black hole. The disorderly default scenario is then brought closer and imho that is far worse.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on March 14, 2011, 05:37:48 PM
Fair enough Muppet. But if the budget deficit has to be reduced then Ireland needs a brutal tax on wealth. Did you see the Sindo's rich list yesterday? I couldn't find the Sunday tribune anywhere  >:(

It's a national crisis and it is going to come down to a choice between the rich ponying up or ordinary punters dying because health care spending is slashed.

You would need a thorough register of all wealth held overseas and a shutdown of the whole banking system over a few days.  The Simon Wiesenthal centre could be retained on a consultancy basis.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hardy on March 14, 2011, 08:39:27 PM
Populist shite, seafoid, with all due respect. Unfortunately, the PAYE workers, due to their (albeit dwindling) numbers, are the only sector with anywhere near the wherewithal to contribute anything significant to deficit reduction and the dependant sector, sadly likewise and for the same reasons of scale, the only ones worth targeting for hairshirt measures. Apart from the fact that "taxing the rich" wouldn't make a blip on the radar screen of debt, penalising the providers of employment and industrial investment would not only drive them out but would possibly do the same to inward investment from foreign corporations. But it would make Fintan O'Toole, Sinn Féin and the last surviving stickies ecstatic.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on March 14, 2011, 09:34:45 PM
Quote from: Hardy on March 14, 2011, 08:39:27 PM
Populist shite, seafoid, with all due respect. Unfortunately, the PAYE workers, due to their (albeit dwindling) numbers, are the only sector with anywhere near the wherewithal to contribute anything significant to deficit reduction and the dependant sector, sadly likewise and for the same reasons of scale, the only ones worth targeting for hairshirt measures. Apart from the fact that "taxing the rich" wouldn't make a blip on the radar screen of debt, penalising the providers of employment and industrial investment would not only drive them out but would possibly do the same to inward investment from foreign corporations. But it would make Fintan O'Toole, Sinn Féin and the last surviving stickies ecstatic.

It's worse than that Hardy. Ireland won't get any bond restructuring without some flesh in return.

This buck is a bond strategist at Soc Gen in Paris 

Ireland, like the EU generally, has a high level of wealth and income. It can still pay off the debts acquired by the previous administration over the next generation, if it wants to. Very painful, but possible; painful especially for a public that has become addicted to high expenditure lifestyles so very quickly (with quite a number of raised eyebrows from foreign visitors to Ireland, even now).

http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2011/03/13/colm-mccarthy-terms-of-the-bailout-deal-are-not-unfair-they-are-impractical/#comments

The bondwallahs don't care where the money comes from. PAYE will only go so far.

# Michael Hennigan - Finfacts Says:
March 13th, 2011 at 9:00 am

The Quinn Group is effectively owned by the people; it and the family owe €3bn to Anglo and over €1bn to bondholders and it has properties across the world.  There's more like it and the Government must be eager to assess when NAMA can start selling more overseas properties.


http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2011/03/12/kenny-returns-from-brussels/#comments
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: lawnseed on March 14, 2011, 10:23:15 PM
Quote from: ludermor on March 09, 2011, 05:10:36 PM
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/nama-to-pocket-euro150m-profit-on-uk-property-deal-2571390.html
NAMA is in line for a profit of almost €150m on a property deal in central London, as the agency begins offloading some of its trophy assets in the UK market.

A property in the affluent Grosvenor Square area, near Oxford Street, is the asset at the centre of the deal.

The loan used to buy the property was originally given out by Michael Fingleton's Irish Nationwide, but was transferred to NAMA last year, making the agency the legal owner of the loan.

It is understood a UK consortium behind the property, at 20/21 Grosvenor Square, has now paid the entire loan back to NAMA, leaving the agency sitting on a major profit.

NAMA declined yesterday to comment on the details.

According to a report in the UK trade journal Estates Gazette, the consortium will pay NAMA back the entire loan Irish Nationwide originally gave out, about €290m.

However, it is understood NAMA only paid half this amount when it bought the loan from Irish Nationwide. If that is the case, it means a profit of almost €150m for NAMA.

It is estimated that 25pc of NAMA's assets are in the UK, which means it has access to assets worth €19bn there.

The UK market has recovered strongly in the past two years while the downturn here has been more severe.

As a result, NAMA is likely to do a number of deals in the UK this year as it tries to break even or make a profit by the time it is wound up in about 10 years.

Until recently, the Grosvenor Square building was the headquarters of the US Navy in Europe, but is far better known from the 1940s when it was the European headquarters of Dwight Eisenhower, supreme commander of the Allied forces.

The building is close to the US Embassy and some of the city's most upmarket restaurants, including one owned by celebrity chef Gordon Ramsay.

The prime location is likely to mean the consortium was able to pay off NAMA by doing a refinancing deal with another bank.

NAMA refused to comment on suggestions it has also won the right to a 'claw back' arrangement, where if the property is sold in future to another buyer at a higher price than NAMA was paid, it will get a share of the proceeds.

The agency is also negotiating to sell its interest in a property in Mayfair. In this case, the original loan was advanced to developer Derek Quinlan.

NAMA disclosed its latest performance last week, showing that 75pc of its loans are "non-performing", meaning they are in arrears of some kind.

However, it is planning to restructure many of these loans with developers -- the interest rates on loans will be lowered and the term of the loans extended.

As a result of this, the proportion of so-called "non performing'' loans will drop.

Development

While NAMA is selling off loans on prime property, the land and development assets it owns are likely to be kept off the market for some time.

The amount of loans the agency is taking will also fall.

This week, opposition parties said the agency would get no further loans, despite the IMF/EU insisting that those worth less than €20m should be moved into the agency.

- Emmet Oliver Deputy Business Editor
i'm not entirely sure it is possible to 'own' a property in grosvenor square, i think you can only buy or sell a lease as far as i'm aware all properties belong to lord grosvenor a direct decendant of gros'venor  roughly translated 'great hunter'/ bringer of meat who was awarded the land/properties by the king as he was the kings hunter..
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on March 15, 2011, 04:14:09 PM
KARL WHELAN
OPINION : €150bn debt-for-equity conversion could facilitate sale of banks and help the State avoid a much-mooted sovereign default
THE KEY thing to understand about the current Irish economic crisis is that it's mainly about the banks. Even without the banks we would have a large fiscal deficit. However, without the banks, we'd also have a debt-GDP ratio of about 80 per cent and a sovereign wealth fund worth about 15 per cent of GDP, a situation that would be sustainable.
It was banking problems that triggered the EU-IMF bailout deal. Despite having sizeable cash balances, the Irish Government did not have the money to provide the liquidity support to banks that were haemorrhaging deposits and other sources of funding. Instead, the banks were being propped up by massive amounts of funding from the ECB as well as emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) from the Irish Central Bank that required assent from the ECB Governing Council. Ultimately, it was the ECB's decision to make further funding for the banks conditional on Ireland seeking a bailout that triggered the EU-IMF agreement.
Back in November, the plan to fix the banks was to get the Irish State to put in up to €35 billion (half of this borrowed from the EU and IMF) to recapitalise the banks. It was hoped that this would restore market confidence, thus allowing the banks regain access to market funding and repay the fortune they owe the ECB.
The availability of these funds to recapitalise the banks has not had the desired effect. Large amounts of deposits have left the Irish banking system since November to be replaced by yet more Central Bank funding. The six banks guaranteed by the State now owe about €150 billion to central banks, with about €70 billion of this owed to the Irish Central Bank in the form of loans that were guaranteed by the former minister for finance (without, to my knowledge, any consultation of the Oireachtas).
Consider the magnitude of this funding. Irish GNP is projected to be €128 billion this year. So if every Irish person gave all their income this year to the banks, it would still not be enough to pay back the ECB and the loans due to the Central Bank.
It is possible that the stress tests to be announced at the end of this month could, in conjunction with recapitalisation, restore international confidence in the Irish banks. Possible but unlikely. Stress tests are somewhat discredited at this point with most investors believing they are usually rigged to produce a positive assessment.
Given the apparent failure of this approach, the EU authorities have focused on an alternative approach: deleveraging. That's a big word for Irish banks selling off their loan books and using the proceeds to pay off the ECB and Irish Central Bank. The problem with this idea is that the scale of such a sale would be enormous relative to the market demand for these kinds of assets. Put simply, there just isn't much interest out there in buying €100 billion in Irish mortgage loans. A sale of this sort would probably see the Irish taxpayer losing a fortune and push the State that bit closer to sovereign default. I suspect some of our European partners are slowly beginning to accept that this plan simply can't work.
So how is the €150 billion supposed to be paid back? In the absence of the banks raising private funding of anything close to this amount, I believe the answer is that the Central Bank loans need to be converted to equity. The problem is that many suspect the banks are insolvent but the scale of the insolvency hole is simply unknown. Under these conditions, it is hard to expect international stock or bond investors to hand over their money. However, if the €150 billion in funding from the ECB and Irish Central Bank is converted into equity, then these banks will immediately be solvent beyond even the doubts of the most pessimistic observers and, at that point, they could be sold into private ownership.
This equity conversion could work as follows. The European Financial Stability Facility could issue €80 billion in bonds, loaning these funds to the Irish banks, who would then pay off the ECB, allowing it walk away unscathed. The EFSF would then convert its €80 billion loan into an equity stake. Similarly, the Irish Central Bank would convert its ELA loans into equity with a legal promise from the Minister for Finance that any losses on the equity share would be covered by the State. The banks would then be owned by the EU and the Irish State but would be prepared for sale to private ownership.
The conversion of the €150 billion to equity would not represent a great investment for either the Irish or the European authorities. For example, suppose the true underlying value of the Irish banks turns out to be minus €30 billion. The equity stake would then turn out to be worth €120 billion, with losses shared between Ireland and the Europe. The Irish ELA loans of €70 billion would end up as €56 billion of equity and the ECB's loans of €80 billion would end up as €64 billion in equity held by the EFSF.
This kind of proposal will hardly be popular with our European partners. However, it would achieve many common goals. It would restore the credibility of the ECB, who would hopefully learn a few lessons about lending to insolvent banks. It would restore the Irish banks to stability without seeing defaults on senior bank bonds, which has been a high priority for the European authorities. And it would give the State a chance to avoid a sovereign default, which should be in everyone's interests.
The Irish banking crisis has rumbled on for 2½ years. The ability to resolve this situation without inflicting massive losses on taxpayers has been lost because of a failure of Irish policy-makers to deal promptly with insolvent institutions – we nationalised Anglo in 2009 – and because the ECB continued to supply the funds that allowed insolvent banks pay off private bond investors.
For this latter reason, the European authorities share much of the blame with Irish regulators and politicians for the situation that exists today with the Irish banks. The time has come for them to share in creating the solution.



So to put it in perspective:
•   the estimated cost of Japan's recovery is provisionally pitched at €130bn /
•    Our projected GNP this year is projected at€128bn
•   The six banks guaranteed by the State now owe about €150bn to central banks 
•   So if every Irish person gave all their income this year to the banks, it would still not be enough to pay back the ECB and the loans due to the Central Bank
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on March 16, 2011, 10:34:07 AM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12755569 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12755569)

Portugal hit by debt downgrade from ratings agency

The ratings downgrade will probably make it more expensive for the Portuguese to borrow money.

Moody's has downgraded Portugal's sovereign debt rating, citing the country's need to cut debt and its poor growth prospects.

The ratings agency cut Portugal by two notches from A1 to A3 and kept the rating on a negative outlook, suggesting more downgrades may follow.

Meanwhile, Portugal's main opposition party has announced it will oppose the government's austerity plans.

The prime minister has warned the country could face a bail-out.

"The consequence of a political crisis would worsen the risks for our economy and lead to intervention," he said.

Portugal is burdened with high levels of debt and is struggling to avoid an international bail-out, similar to those of Greece and the Republic of Ireland.

Political deadlock
Prime Minister Jose Socrates' government unveiled the latest in a series of austerity measures last Friday.

The plans, which included cuts to health and welfare budgets, were meant to reassure investors and fellow European Union members that it can meet its debt obligations without the need for outside help.

However, the austerity package has met with fierce opposition, and the prime minister has warned that if the measures fail to win support, his country may be forced into a bail-out.

The main opposition party has now decided to formally oppose the plans, which could lead to political deadlock.

This could bring down the current minority government, forcing a general election.

"I have been fighting to avoid this scenario for six months," Mr Socrates told Portuguese television.

Negative outlook
Despite Moody's two-notch downgrade, the agency still rates Portugal as "investment grade" and the country remains several notches above the more risky "speculative grade" ratings it has given to Greece.

"The cost of market funding is likely to remain high until the deficit has been reduced to a sustainable level and the prospects for economic growth have improved," said Moody's in a statement.

The downgrade is likely to make it even more expensive for Portugal to raise money on the international debt markets.

The country's 10-year cost of borrowing hit a new high of nearly 8% last week, and has remained above 7.5% since.

The bad news came a day before Portugal is due to raise up to 1bn euros, via a 12-month treasury bill auction on Wednesday.

Moody's has also given a negative outlook on the new rating, which means its rating could be downgraded further.

This indicates that Moody's is unsure that the Portuguese government will be able to deliver on the reforms it has recently announced.

Standard and Poor's, another ratings agency, recently announced that it is also reviewing Portugal's A- debt rating - equivalent to Moody's A3 rating - for a possible downgrade.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on March 16, 2011, 11:07:42 AM
Austerity is no use without some movement on debt restructuring.
Portugal is going to get sucked in . And the EU/IMF bailout is no solution.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on March 23, 2011, 01:44:25 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 16, 2011, 11:07:42 AM
Austerity is no use without some movement on debt restructuring.
Portugal is going to get sucked in . And the EU/IMF bailout is no solution.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12828405 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12828405)

Portugal bail-out looms as government nears collapse

Portugal's opposition parties have withdrawn their support for austerity policies that may lead to the Lisbon government's collapse on Wednesday.

The government's expected defeat in a parliamentary vote is likely to trigger an international financial rescue.

The vote comes on the eve of a European Union summit where leaders hope to finalise a eurozone debt crisis plan.

Kevin Dunning, analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, told the BBC that this is "crunch time" for Portugal.

"This could be the week when they have to activate the bail-out fund," he said.

Last year Greece and the Republic of Ireland had to accept massive rescue packages after markets lost faith in their governments' efforts to deal with their debt burdens.

Portugal's financial collapse would likely spark another round of nervousness in financial markets and may revive concerns about the larger Spanish economy.

Opposition parties say the austerity plan - cuts in welfare, tax rises, and increases in public transport costs - go too far.

Prime Minister Jose Socrates has said he will no longer be able to run the country if the package is rejected.

Major international lenders have been wary of Portugal's attempts to avoid tapping eurozone bail-out funds by raising money in the debt markets.

The yield on Portugal's 10-year bond was at 7.4% Tuesday, close to recent records, an indication of investors' concerns about the country's ability to pay back its debts.

On Thursday eurozone leaders begin a two-day summit at which they hope to finalise details of a "grand bargain" to deal with the 17-nation group's debt burden.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on March 23, 2011, 04:19:12 PM
Ireland 10 year bonds : 10.05% http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GIGB10YR:IND (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GIGB10YR:IND)
Portugal: 7.63% http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GSPT10YR:IND (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GSPT10YR:IND)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on March 23, 2011, 09:16:55 PM
Ireland 2 year bonds are worse. It is all coming to a head.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on March 23, 2011, 10:35:14 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 23, 2011, 09:16:55 PM
Ireland 2 year bonds are worse. It is all coming to a head.

Spailpín suggesting 2 tier. That's where my money is too. What do you think?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on March 24, 2011, 10:34:02 AM
I don't think Merkel and co are in control any more.
The Irish debt is unsustainable.  Maybe 2 tier but it could go any way.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: rossie mad on March 24, 2011, 12:53:47 PM

What will portugals situation at the moment bring to the mix?

Are we looking at a debt forgiveness mechanism down the line to stave off bigger economies like spain and itay joining the line?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Ulick on March 24, 2011, 01:14:45 PM
Time for us to sit tight and watch EU partners squirm

By David McWilliams

Thursday March 24 2011

Have you ever heard the expression "marry me now, the love will come later"? In the old days when a couple was forced together by the matchmaker, this gradual process of emotional osmosis was supposed to happen as time and loneliness took their course.

Often it didn't and, as a result, Ireland was a country of silent homes, filled with psychological terror, violence and sadness.

Watching the depressing 'Ballroom of Romance' on TV the other night, I couldn't help thinking of the dilemmas facing the architects of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The crisis facing the euro is one of a loveless marriage where the marriage itself has amplified differences that were evident from the start.

When assessing risks that might derail this bizarre construct, central bank economists focused on the risk of governments using the monetary union to borrow all they wanted. Therefore, the rules were drafted to prevent politicians of poorer countries -- those without much access to capital -- taking advantage of the monetary union to increase borrowing.

The economists forgot about the banks and the private sector and EMU became a financial crackhouse for large delinquent banks in the core of the union and their mini-wannabes in the periphery.

Take Ireland today. German and French banks only hold €10bn of our sovereign debt. But they hold €74.5bn of Irish bank debt. It is no wonder that the Europeans (led by the French and the Germans) are so keen this week to stop Ireland defaulting on the bank debt.

Anyone who pointed out this banking faultline in the early years of the 2000s was told that they "didn't understand". Well we understood, only too well.

We knew a monetary union without a supporting political union was a hopeful matchmaking exercise. Given that the single currency had no provision for divorce, the hope was that the unaccustomed newly-weds would learn to love each other and co-operate.

Fast forward a decade and we are now in the middle of the first monumental row of the marriage and there has been little sign of love and many indications of increased acrimony.

There is a fundamental faultline in the euro because, as it is designed at present, it means there will be periodic defaults and there is absolutely nothing the guardians of the system -- France and Germany -- can do about it other than threaten the weaker countries with supposed sanctions.

There is no mechanism to force the exit of one country. So the likes of the ECB's Jean-Claude Trichet and Juergen Stark and all the others are stuck in the inconsistency of their own grand delusions.

On Monday, Trichet said he thought that Ireland could pay all its debts; it begged the question why was he so sure, when the markets thought the opposite? Yesterday, the yield on two-year money in Ireland moved above 10pc -- that is above long-term yields.

There are many reasons for this but none of them would amount to any player in the market agreeing with Trichet.

We are in a serious crisis for the euro and all Trichet can do is repeat mantras. He knows, and we know, that we are caught in a debt trap. With no exit from the currency, there is nothing that the Germans and French can do but face a slow car crash of progressive defaults.

The other players in this tragedy are the markets that are shorting all peripheral markets in the expectations of a blowout. The more they sell short, the more accentuated the crisis. And it's not just Ireland.

According to the latest figures from the Bank of International Settlements, French and German banks between them are owed €763.8bn by Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Spain. The French and Germans realise they are on the hook so they are desperately trying to rewrite history -- a history where only the debtors are culpable.

But every capitalist knows that when a company goes bust, the key concept that dictates the receivership and possible subsequent rebirth is co-responsibility, where the lender and borrower are both culpable.

Every capitalist who knows a bit of economics also knows that, if you have a system where a bust country can't pay its private debts, it will endure years of deflation and high budget deficits, which will ultimately get so big that they will have to be defaulted on and the last lender will lose everything.

There is no way out of this because the EMU architects never allowed themselves to think the unthinkable. Well, the unthinkable has happened and over the next few days our negotiators should just hold tight in the knowledge that we are all in this loveless marriage together.

There is little point in France's Nicolas Sarkozy flying off the handle and demanding more dowry in the form of corporate tax reforms. It won't make a jot of difference. We are now together and the only way out of this is a divorce or a two-speed Europe with default, restructuring, repudiation or whatever you'd like to call it.

The only other way out is full political and fiscal union, which the people don't want; or the Europeanisation of all liabilities in the form of a huge, bumper European bond market, which Trichet and Germany have ruled out. Well you can't have it every way, lads.

Our boys should just sit tight at the summit and watch the others squirm for a change.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on March 24, 2011, 02:52:06 PM
Real GDP down 1.0% on 2009
Q4 down 1.6% on Q3
Q4 2010 down 0.7% on Q4 2009
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Fear ón Srath Bán on March 24, 2011, 07:52:00 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 24, 2011, 02:52:06 PM
Real GDP down 1.0% on 2009
Q4 down 1.6% on Q3
Q4 2010 down 0.7% on Q4 2009


Exactly as predicted by some, except those that had the power to do something about it: take so much out of an economy that is already in trouble and there's only one way it can go.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on March 25, 2011, 10:34:46 AM
More confirmation that the whole house of cards is about to collapse:

FIRST, NCB
Irish Q4 2010 GDP
• Irish GNP grew 2.0% q/q in Q4 2010 and GDP fell by -1.6% q/q, to leave the annual declines at -2.1% and -1.0% respectively.

• The really important point from all these figures for us is the size of the economy. The nominal level of GDP at €154bn is €3.3bn less than Budget 2011 had been
expecting. This has implications for tax take and the denominator in debt/deficit to GDP calculations.

• This pushes our deficit to GDP to -5.5% of GDP in 2014 (previously -4.6%) and our debt to GDP ratio in 2014 to 117.8% and still increasing (previously 112.6% and stabilising). This is the NCB base case where €22.5bn is injected into the banking system. ( this is an extra fig based on the expected stress tests next week )..


THEN GOODBODY's...
With Ireland already in the firing line, yesterday's confirmation of a seasonally-adjusted fall of 1.6% in GDP in Q4 2010 looked, at first glance, to provide another reason to write off the
economy's prospects.

Although the economy is weak, it is not nearly as weak as that headline number suggests. In fact, GNP increased by 2.0% in the quarter. So, which is the correct number? Once again, the volatile nature of the data can be attributed to the large multi-national presence in Ireland; exports and inventories subtracted from GDP (likely to be dominated by multi-nationals), while this meant there was lower profit outflows from those foreign multinationals (there was also an increase in profit repatriations from Irish companies abroad), thus contributing to a rise in GNP. One can get confused with the volatility, but what does it all mean for the economy's prospects in 2011.

The data confirm once again that Ireland has a two-speed economy. Domestic demand continues to be weak, albeit in line with expectations, falling by 5.5% yoy in Q4 and 6.5% for the full year, as investment in particular continued to drag. That component of the economy has now fallen by 65% from the peak.

On a more positive note, the export sector continues to perform very well. In the full-year, exports grew by 9.4%, with imports up by 6.6%. We believe these trends will continue. Our previous forecasts suggested that GDP would grow by 1.1% in 2011, while GNP would be up by a neglible amount. On the basis of the weaker Q4 GDP result, we are likely to bring down our estimate for GDP growth to close to the GNP estimate. This only serves to underline the challenges that Ireland faces, but with bank stress tests due next week, the immediate concern is for debt sustainability. With growth being an important ingredient for debt sustainability, these figures simply don't help.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on March 29, 2011, 02:11:26 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0329/ilp-business.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0329/ilp-business.html)

State set to take control of IL&P
Updated: 13:44, Tuesday, 29 March 2011

The State is now likely to take full ownership of Irish Life & Permanent following the stress tests of banks due to be published on Thursday.

Irish Life & Permanent - Permanent TSB likely to need up to €1 billion


The State is now likely to take full ownership of Irish Life & Permanent following the stress tests of banks due to be published on Thursday.
RTE News understands that the amount of capital required for the group's bank, Permanent TSB, is likely to be in the region of €600 million to €1 billion. At present, Irish Life & Permanent is valued at around €200m.
So a capital injection which would be required from the State is likely to force the organisation into full State control.
Irish Life & Permanent is made up of one of the State's largest life assurance companies, Irish Life, and the country's largest mortgage lender Permanent TSB.
Minister for Finance Michael Noonan is likely to make a statement which will include addressing the future structure of the banking system on Thursday.
The change in ownership of Permanent TSB would be likely to have significant ramifications for potential mergers in the banking sector.
Shares in IL&P were down almost 25% to 56 cent in Dublin this afternoon.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Capt Pat on March 29, 2011, 02:28:50 PM
What about Ulster Bank? Are they next to fall?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on March 29, 2011, 02:31:39 PM
Quote from: Capt Pat on March 29, 2011, 02:28:50 PM
What about Ulster Bank? Are they next to fall?

They are Downing Streets problem.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on March 29, 2011, 07:22:29 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0329/portugal-business.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0329/portugal-business.html)

S&P cuts ratings of Portugal and Greece
Updated: 18:12, Tuesday, 29 March 2011

Credit rating agency Standard & Poor's has cut its credit ratings for both Portugal and Greece.


S&P downgrades - New EU mechanism blamed for cuts

Credit rating agency Standard & Poor's has cut its credit ratings for both Portugal and Greece.
S&P lowered Portugal's credit rating by one notch to BBB-, saying debt restructuring may be a pre-condition for help from the EU's new bail-out fund.
S&P, one of the top three ratings agencies, said its decision reflected its concerns that terms to access the new European Stability Mechanism (ESM), agreed at an EU summit last week, would be to the detriment of creditors.
Investors fear that the bottom line of the new ESM, which comes into operation in 2013, means that they could see their investments restructured, either in terms of the amount they get repaid or the time they have to wait for repayment.
In either event, their investment in Portuguese government assets, primarily bonds, would be worth less.
S&P also downgraded Greece's credit rating deeper into junk status for the same reasons. It lowered Greece's rating two notches to BB- from BB+, and said it may lower its assessment again.
The news sent yields on Portuguese 10-year bonds to a new high of just over 8.2% this evening.


Does the bit in bold mean they are anticipating some pain for bondholders?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: orangeman on March 30, 2011, 11:02:29 AM
This is truly frightening stuff :



The unbelievable truth about Ireland and its banks
Robert Peston | 00:00 UK time, Wednesday, 30 March 2011

Ireland's central bank and new government will confirm on Thursday that the hole in the country's banks is even wider, deeper and darker than seemed to be the case last November, when those bust banks forced the country to go with a begging bowl to the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for 67.5bn euros (£59bn) of rescue loans.

Regulators at the Irish central bank have conducted a review of how much extra capital - as a buffer against future losses - is required by Bank of Ireland, Allied Irish Bank, EBS and Irish Life and Permanent.

Unless something unexpected happens in the next 24 hours, the total amount of additional capital that will need to be injected into these banks will be a bit less than 35bn euros - including 8bn euros that was supposed to be injected into them at the end of February, but was postponed because of Ireland's political turmoil.

Anyway, let's assume that the total amount extra that these banks need is circa 30bn euros. That would take the total quantity of state investment in Ireland banks to a breathtaking 75bn euros (actually a tiny bit more than that).

That is an almost unbelievably large number. When I think about it, I have a small panic attack - because it represents 45% of Ireland's GDP and 55% of its GNP.

(Irish GNP is usually thought to be a better measure of Ireland's useful economic output, because the GDP figure contains a sizeable chunk of profits exported abroad by all those multinationals that settled in Ireland for the exceptionally low tax rate).

Or to put it another way, if Britain's banks had gone bust to the same extent, British taxpayers would have invested something like £700bn in them - or more than 10 times what we actually invested in Royal Bank of Scotland, Lloyds, Northern Rock and Bradford & Bingley.

Nor is that the end of the exposure of the eurozone and the Irish state to these stunningly failed banks.

No financial institution or bank will lend to them. Ireland's banks can't borrow from anyone except the Irish people (who, poor souls, have nowhere much else to put their deposits). But even if they wanted to, Irish households could not possibly put money into the banks fast enough to allow those banks to repay all the institutions - such as German banks - which lent far too much to Ireland's banks in the boom years.

So when these wholesale lenders to Ireland's banks have been demanding their money back (as they have been in a run that has been huge and inexorable), the money has come from the European Central Bank and the Central Bank of Ireland - or, indirectly, from the taxpayers of Ireland and the eurozone.

To prevent Irish banks toppling over one after another, the European Central Bank has lent 117bn euros to them and the Central Bank of Ireland has lent them a further 71bn euros. So that's 188bn euros of loans from the eurozone's taxpayers to Ireland's banks - which makes the 67.5bn euros lent directly by the eurozone and IMF to the Irish government look like peanuts.

And a further 20bn euros of bank bonds - another form of bank debt - is still guaranteed by the Irish state through the Eligible Guarantee Scheme.

So that is 208bn euros of taxpayer loans to Ireland's banks - equivalent to a remarkable 154% of GDP.

To ask the inevitable dumb question, what on earth went so spectacularly wrong?

First, in the frenzied party years before 2008, the banks borrowed too much from other institutions - especially from German banks - and lent far too much to housebuyers and property speculators.

However, to date Ireland's banks have only properly owned up to the losses on the property developments.

On Thursday for the first time they'll be forced to admit that they also face colossal losses on residential mortgages. In February, for example, official Central Bank figures showed that 5.7% of Irish mortgage accounts were more than 90 days in arrears - which means Ireland banks then were owed 8.6bn euros in unpaid interest and principal.

It is pretty extraordinary that it has taken so long for the banks to be forced to recognise their mortgage losses - since house prices have more-or-less halved over the past few years, the economy was in deep recession after the 2008 crash and has subsequently been pretty stagnant, and unemployment has been rising.

Does the phrase "better late than never" apply in this case? Possibly not.

Second, the Irish government probably chose the worst of all strategies for propping up the banks.

By guaranteeing all their liabilities in the autumn of 2008, they turned the bloated liabilities of the swollen banks into public sector debt.

And because the Irish government didn't secure a bottomless borrowing facility from the European Central Bank, it then became impossible to force losses on any of the banks' creditors, even those which lent most recklessly: Ireland did not have the financial resources to pay back all those wholesale lenders that would inevitably have demanded their money back the moment any of them were instructed to swallow a loss.

So some of the guilty parties, namely the wholesale creditors of Ireland's banks - including banks and investors in Germany, France, Spain and the UK - have got away without taking their share of losses. All those losses have fallen on Ireland's citizens, who are not blameless for the mess (they didn't have to borrow too much) but aren't the only ones at fault.

And for the Irish people, there is a second source of possible injustice. The money they've been lent by the IMF and eurozone carries an interest rate of 5.8% on average - which is significantly greater than Ireland's economy and tax revenues can grow right now, and therefore forces Ireland into a potentially never-ending vicious cycle of public spending cuts and low growth.

What's more, the banks may also be trapped in a cycle of forced asset sales and losses, because they are paying out an estimated 2.5bn euros a year for the emergency loans from the ECB and Irish central bank, to finance mortgages and other loans which are falling in value and are not yielding interest.

Perhaps worse still, the 188bn euros of central bank loans could be withdrawn more or less at the ECB's pleasure. So Ireland's banks will continue to feel under relentless pressure to dump assets at punitive fire-sale prices, unless and until the ECB can be prevailed upon to deliver what its officials say it is cooking up, which is a new, longer stable lending facility for banks - such as the Irish ones - that need to reconstructed.

What will be the end of this sorry saga?

By default, it now looks as though almost the entire Irish banking sector will be nationalised.

Allied Irish is already in state hands. Anglo Irish and Irish Nationwide have been crunched together and are being wound up by the state. It will be tough for Bank of Ireland and Irish Life and Permanent to avoid being taken over by taxpayers too.

It will therefore be fascinating to hear what the Irish premier and finance minister lay out as their vision for the future of Ireland's banks. That will be presented at 4.45pm on Thursday, 15 minutes after the Central Bank of Ireland announces the precise, hideous amount of extra capital the banks will be forced to raise.

It will be another momentous day for Ireland and for the Eurozone. But whether it will be a day that sets both on the road to financial recovery, or nudges them nearer catastrophe, cannot yet be assessed.


Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: armaghniac on March 30, 2011, 01:11:11 PM
QuoteIreland's banks can't borrow from anyone except the Irish people (who, poor souls, have nowhere much else to put their deposits).

This is simplistic, Irish people moving funds from Irish banks to foreign owned ones (Uster, NIB, Rabo etc) is the cause of a lot of liquidity problems.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: gallsman on March 30, 2011, 01:21:03 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on March 30, 2011, 01:11:11 PM
QuoteIreland's banks can't borrow from anyone except the Irish people (who, poor souls, have nowhere much else to put their deposits).

This is simplistic, Irish people moving funds from Irish banks to foreign owned ones (Uster, NIB, Rabo etc) is the cause of a lot of liquidity problems.

Plenty of advisors are recommending buying up guaranteed Irish bonds to anyone who has a bit of cash. Nice healthy return.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on March 30, 2011, 01:27:19 PM
Quote from: gallsman on March 30, 2011, 01:21:03 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on March 30, 2011, 01:11:11 PM
QuoteIreland's banks can't borrow from anyone except the Irish people (who, poor souls, have nowhere much else to put their deposits).

This is simplistic, Irish people moving funds from Irish banks to foreign owned ones (Uster, NIB, Rabo etc) is the cause of a lot of liquidity problems.

Plenty of advisors are recommending buying up guaranteed Irish bonds to anyone who has a bit of cash. Nice healthy return.
Great advice that, I might ignore it myself though.  As long as the advisors can show how they outlined the risk to the investor they should be able to avoid censure.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on March 30, 2011, 07:45:12 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 30, 2008, 10:59:45 AM
Quote from: Bogball XV on September 30, 2008, 10:06:53 AM
Quote from: orangeman on September 30, 2008, 09:33:28 AM
Quote from: muppet on September 30, 2008, 03:21:58 AM
Just back from the beer I mentioned earlier.

Shouldn't have gone.

From what I hear Irish banking will not be the same by lunchtime today. Better stay in bed.



Beer on a Monday night is never a good thing unless you've just won the AI - In that instance, it's almost compulsory !  ;) :D

Good news for Irish banking ?

Will UK and other governments follow suit ?

I don't know the ins and outs of it yet, but it seems to be a massive piece of bluffing by lenno - if he were ever asked to pay up, he couldn't, i suppose it depends on how long it will be before the markets either test his promise or just decide to disbelieve him.  If he has to come up with the goods, it'll be a disaster for the taxpayer.  We're currently talking about the budget from hell coming up because tax revenues are short by 7bn on estimates (you have to wonder what idiot came up with the estimates), yet the minister finds it okay to guarantee over €400Bn of loans made by banks?  If 10% go bad (probably not an unreasonable assumption) that's €40 Bn, almost our total annual budget.
It would have been a better idea to force some mergers between the banks who appeared in serious bother yesterday and the ones who just appeared in bother.

Agreed. So far it is the greatest and probably the most stupid gamble in the history of the state. They should have nationalised one bank (or 2 if they could afford it) and let the others go. Now all it takes is another day or two in the markets like yesterday and we will have taxes like we have never seen before.

The above was the night before and morning after the bank guarantee.

The radio had similarly dramatic talk again today regarding the stress tests and the next couple of days. Some experts predicting that tomorrow's figures, added to the debt we already have, will clearly demonstrate that we are  beyond our ability to repay. Dan Boyle (I know) tweeted recently that the total debt could be more than total tax take in the history of the State. That would be quite something if true (I can't find any link to prove it).

The next 48 hours (& maybe up to Sunday night) should be very interesting indeed.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on March 30, 2011, 08:58:15 PM
Irish Life & P shares were suspended earlier.

Now: BoI and AIB shares suspended (http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0330/banks.html)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on March 30, 2011, 09:04:41 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 30, 2011, 07:45:12 PMI don't know the ins and outs of it yet, but it seems to be a massive piece of bluffing by lenno - if he were ever asked to pay up, he couldn't, i suppose it depends on how long it will be before the markets either test his promise or just decide to disbelieve him.  If he has to come up with the goods, it'll be a disaster for the taxpayer.  We're currently talking about the budget from hell coming up because tax revenues are short by 7bn on estimates (you have to wonder what idiot came up with the estimates), yet the minister finds it okay to guarantee over €400Bn of loans made by banks?  If 10% go bad (probably not an unreasonable assumption) that's €40 Bn, almost our total annual budget.
It would have been a better idea to force some mergers between the banks who appeared in serious bother yesterday and the ones who just appeared in bother.

Agreed. So far it is the greatest and probably the most stupid gamble in the history of the state. They should have nationalised one bank (or 2 if they could afford it) and let the others go. Now all it takes is another day or two in the markets like yesterday and we will have taxes like we have never seen before. [/quote]

The above was the night before and morning after the bank guarantee.

The radio had similarly dramatic talk again today regarding the stress tests and the next couple of days. Some experts predicting that tomorrow's figures, added to the debt we already have, will clearly demonstrate that we are  beyond our ability to repay. Dan Boyle (I know) tweeted recently that the total debt could be more than total tax take in the history of the State. That would be quite something if true (I can't find any link to prove it).

The next 48 hours (& maybe up to Sunday night) should be very interesting indeed.
[/quote]
It's unbelievable that we're still talking about this almost 3 years later, what's most unbelievable is that that hope tomorrow will put a final (estimated) figure on the total 'bailout'.  It's all a bit sad really, I don't know about the rest of you, but I've certainly become completely disillusioned with the lot of them. 

Our tax take then was about 55Bn, now it's 32Bn (if we're lucky).
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on March 30, 2011, 09:14:21 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 30, 2011, 08:58:15 PM
Irish Life & P shares were suspended earlier.

Now: BoI and AIB shares suspended (http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0330/banks.html)
I asked this before on this thread, but how do aib shares have any value? 

The more I think of it, the more depressing the decision to guarantee becomes.

If the irish banking system had collapsed back then would we be in a worse position now?  Would it have collapsed the rest of Europe?  What were the real reasons behind the guarantee, did FF have ulterior motives?  Was the ECB behind it?  Did they just not understand what they were doing?  Did they really think it was a matter of short term liquidity?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on March 31, 2011, 10:41:57 AM
What a mess. All of the main banks and Irish Life are going to end up in foreign ownership.
The overpaid egos who ran these banks destroyed the native financial ecosystem. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on March 31, 2011, 10:48:17 AM
Quote from: seafoid on March 31, 2011, 10:41:57 AM
What a mess. All of the main banks and Irish Life are going to end up in foreign ownership.
The overpaid egos who ran these banks destroyed the native financial ecosystem.

I expect the media to be on about 'effective nationalisation' later but once the banks are sold on it will be 'actual' foreign ownership. I'm guessing it will be very hard (even harder than now) to stomach these banks in a few years, having large profits and huge salaries, all on our backs while we have a generation paying off their debt.

Big question is, can Noonan change tack now and put the taxpayer before the banking system?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on March 31, 2011, 11:24:26 AM
QuoteBig question is, can Noonan change tack now and put the taxpayer before the banking system?

No
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on March 31, 2011, 11:28:33 AM
Quote from: Declan on March 31, 2011, 11:24:26 AM
QuoteBig question is, can Noonan change tack now and put the taxpayer before the banking system?

No

Surely though he can't blindly continue Lenihan's lunacy of shoveling money we don't have and can't repay, down a bottomless pit?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hardy on March 31, 2011, 12:36:06 PM
I don't understand the paranoia about "foreign ownership" of the banks. Do people somehow think "we" owned the banks before this meltdown? They were owned by a variety of shareholders, most of them institutional, many of them foreign. A tiny proportion of AIB and BOI shares would have been owned by Irish individuals - that's about it. The idea that financial assets in capital markets somehow have a nationality like a football team is nonsense.

Ironically, it's only now, as a result of the whole debacle that we DO actually own the banks. As far as I'm concerned, the sooner we can sell them again to foreign or any other interests and recover some of the capital, the better. What we should have done, day one, is flogged them off to competent foreign banks who would have provided a proper banking system, something "we" haven't managed to do after three years of f**king about and pouring the people's future away.

And now we're proposing to pour another 25+ billion down the tubes. Maybe I'm not sophisticated enough to understand it, but I just don't get the proposition that the way to solve a massive, humongous, unprecedentedly mind-boggling debt problem is to borrow more money! Just to give it to a business that doesn't work and can't work. A five-year-old wouldn't suggest that.

David McWilliams gets it right again, for me:
http://www.rte.ie/news/morningireland/player.html?20110331,2934096,2934135,flash,257 (http://www.rte.ie/news/morningireland/player.html?20110331,2934096,2934135,flash,257)

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on March 31, 2011, 01:03:15 PM
Quote from: Hardy on March 31, 2011, 12:36:06 PM
I don't understand the paranoia about "foreign ownership" of the banks. Do people somehow think "we" owned the banks before this meltdown? They were owned by a variety of shareholders, most of them institutional, many of them foreign. A tiny proportion of AIB and BOI shares would have been owned by Irish individuals - that's about it. The idea that financial assets in capital markets somehow have a nationality like a football team is nonsense.

Ironically, it's only now, as a result of the whole debacle that we DO actually own the banks. As far as I'm concerned, the sooner we can sell them again to foreign or any other interests and recover some of the capital, the better. What we should have done, day one, is flogged them off to competent foreign banks who would have provided a proper banking system, something "we" haven't managed to do after three years of f**king about and pouring the people's future away.

And now we're proposing to pour another 25+ billion down the tubes. Maybe I'm not sophisticated enough to understand it, but I just don't get the proposition that the way to solve a massive, humongous, unprecedentedly mind-boggling debt problem is to borrow more money! Just to give it to a business that doesn't work and can't work. A five-year-old wouldn't suggest that.

David McWilliams gets it right again, for me:
http://www.rte.ie/news/morningireland/player.html?20110331,2934096,2934135,flash,257 (http://www.rte.ie/news/morningireland/player.html?20110331,2934096,2934135,flash,257)

The problem is this:

When the banks were making huge profits they were privately owned. Now that they are losing Billions they are publicly owned and we are picking up the tab for the losses. When they are finally morphed into something that can start making money again they will be sold (for a pittance compared to what we put into them) and private, almost certainly foreign, investors will again make large profits out of the Irish banking system.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on March 31, 2011, 01:31:53 PM
QuoteSurely though he can't blindly continue Lenihan's lunacy of shoveling money we don't have and can't repay, down a bottomless pit?

Well I've heard nothing from him yet that indicates any different. All I've heard is renegotiate the interest rate which is bullshit really. We have un unsurmountable debt and yet all the indications are that we will make that debt bigger today by lumping more money into failed institutions.

If he stands up today and says that we will renegotiate the monies owed by offering to repay 1 million a year for 40000 years to the the ECB/IMF/German/French banks then we are not defaulting only restutructuring we may have a way out otherwise we'll just be delaying the inevitable
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on March 31, 2011, 01:40:18 PM
Quote from: Declan on March 31, 2011, 01:31:53 PM
QuoteSurely though he can't blindly continue Lenihan's lunacy of shoveling money we don't have and can't repay, down a bottomless pit?

Well I've heard nothing from him yet that indicates any different. All I've heard is renegotiate the interest rate which is bullshit really. We have un unsurmountable debt and yet all the indications are that we will make that debt bigger today by lumping more money into failed institutions.

If he stands up today and says that we will renegotiate the monies owed by offering to repay 1 million a year for 40000 years to the the ECB/IMF/German/French banks then we are not defaulting only restutructuring we may have a way out otherwise we'll just be delaying the inevitable

It should be pointed out that these stress tests (which don't include Anglo btw) are part of the deal agreed during the IMF/EU Bailout. This was of course agreed by the previous Government.

However even though I voted FG but I will be disappointed if Noonan fails to change the direction of the last 3 years somewhere in the next few days. I agree with you that re-negotitation of the interest rate is small fry at this stage.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: rossie mad on March 31, 2011, 01:47:48 PM
Quote from: Declan on March 31, 2011, 01:31:53 PM
QuoteSurely though he can't blindly continue Lenihan's lunacy of shoveling money we don't have and can't repay, down a bottomless pit?

Well I've heard nothing from him yet that indicates any different. All I've heard is renegotiate the interest rate which is bullshit really. We have un unsurmountable debt and yet all the indications are that we will make that debt bigger today by lumping more money into failed institutions.

If he stands up today and says that we will renegotiate the monies owed by offering to repay 1 million a year for 40000 years to the the ECB/IMF/German/French banks then we are not defaulting only restutructuring we may have a way out otherwise we'll just be delaying the inevitable

In your opinion declan what is the inevitable?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on March 31, 2011, 02:02:38 PM
Quote from: rossie mad on March 31, 2011, 01:47:48 PM
Quote from: Declan on March 31, 2011, 01:31:53 PM
QuoteSurely though he can't blindly continue Lenihan's lunacy of shoveling money we don't have and can't repay, down a bottomless pit?

Well I've heard nothing from him yet that indicates any different. All I've heard is renegotiate the interest rate which is bullshit really. We have un unsurmountable debt and yet all the indications are that we will make that debt bigger today by lumping more money into failed institutions.

If he stands up today and says that we will renegotiate the monies owed by offering to repay 1 million a year for 40000 years to the the ECB/IMF/German/French banks then we are not defaulting only restutructuring we may have a way out otherwise we'll just be delaying the inevitable

In your opinion declan what is the inevitable?

Imagine your home budget where you owe 200k, spend 50k a year and earn only 32k (tax free). Where would this end up?

For Ireland switch the 'k' for Billion.

Anyone who understands the above is as qualified as the next man to predict what comes next.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on March 31, 2011, 02:04:07 PM
QuoteIn your opinion declan what is the inevitable?

Some sort of default  - it's a question of whether it's on our terms or not. I just can't see any other way out.

In more good news:
Aynsley paid €974,000 in 2010

The chief executive of Anglo Irish Bank, Mike Aynsley, was paid €974,000 for 2010. His remuneration included a basic salary of €500,000 and a pension contribution of €133,000. He also received benefits of €341,000 made up of relocation expenses, travel expenses and and rent allowance.

Mr Aynsley relocated from Australia to Ireland to take up his position and his wife and family still live there. Speaking on Morning Ireland, he said he planned to remain in Ireland.

Anglo Irish Bank chairman Alan Dukes received pay of €127,000 for the year. Former chairman Donal O'Connor, who resigned from the board, in June received €114,000.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Rossfan on March 31, 2011, 02:05:28 PM
By the and of 2014 we( the Irish State) will have a debt of around € 235,000,000,000.
Banks bail out to date €46Bn , NAMA €40bn+ new stress test extra money € 30bn approx, plus normal Government deficit funding €120Bn.
The annual interest will be c. €11.5Bn.
In 2010 total Tax take was c. €33Bn and spending c.€50Bn.
So to break even in 2015  we'll need to take in about €45Bn and only spend € 34Bn on ourselves plus the Interest.

Time to bail out of the Country methinks  :-\ :'(
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on March 31, 2011, 02:12:36 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 31, 2011, 02:05:28 PM
By the and of 2014 we( the Irish State) will have a debt of around € 235,000,000,000.
Banks bail out to date €46Bn , NAMA €40bn+ new stress test extra money € 30bn approx, plus normal Government deficit funding €120Bn.
The annual interest will be c. €11.5Bn.
In 2010 total Tax take was c. €33Bn and spending c.€50Bn.
So to break even in 2015  we'll need to take in about €45Bn and only spend € 34Bn on ourselves plus the Interest.

Time to bail out of the Country methinks  :-\ :'(

CB 'reliance' now at €153 and still rising.

http://economic-incentives.blogspot.com/2011/03/central-bank-reliance-rises-to-153.html?spref=tw (http://economic-incentives.blogspot.com/2011/03/central-bank-reliance-rises-to-153.html?spref=tw)

Our banks now issue bonds to themselves to pay off the bondholders. These bonds are guaranteed by the State thanks to Lenny so we now are the bondholders that we are going to have to burn.

I always liked the line: if he was made of chocolate he would eat himself. I always thought it was a paradox but it seems we will shortly prove that you can be bond issuer, bond holder and bond burnee, all at the same time.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: balladmaker on March 31, 2011, 02:37:09 PM
Why does no one in power seem to be listening to the suggestions put forward by people such as David McWilliams i.e. put the banks for sale on the open market.  After 100 days, if there are no takers, then why should the state buy them by pumping endless billions into them.  Close down the banks which are fecked, move the deposits to a bank which has greater stability, and clean up the whole mess once and for all.

Lowering interest rates is only a charade to make the government look as if it has a plan.  Given the debt burdern, interest rates are becoming irrelevant.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on March 31, 2011, 03:52:32 PM
Quote from: balladmaker on March 31, 2011, 02:37:09 PM
Why does no one in power seem to be listening to the suggestions put forward by people such as David McWilliams i.e. put the banks for sale on the open market.  After 100 days, if there are no takers, then why should the state buy them by pumping endless billions into them.  Close down the banks which are fecked, move the deposits to a bank which has greater stability, and clean up the whole mess once and for all.Lowering interest rates is only a charade to make the government look as if it has a plan.  Given the debt burdern, interest rates are becoming irrelevant.

Who is going to want to buy AIB ?
The bank has a huge portfolio of tracker mortgages that are loss making and that is even before talking about defaults.
As long as house prices keep falling nobody is going to want to buy the banks.

It is like trying to sell a herd of cattle when the marts are all closed due to an extended dose (coming on 3 years)  of Foot and Mouth  and nobody is buying.

Add the fact that most of the animals are sick and you the farmer owe your father in law 100K  that you borrowed to buy the stock
when prices were high and all the marts were open.

You could sell the herd for 2K in the current market via Facebook  but how are you going to repay the father in law? 
And who should bear the loss ?   
   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on March 31, 2011, 03:56:34 PM
Quote from: Declan on March 31, 2011, 01:31:53 PM
QuoteSurely though he can't blindly continue Lenihan's lunacy of shoveling money we don't have and can't repay, down a bottomless pit?

Well I've heard nothing from him yet that indicates any different. All I've heard is renegotiate the interest rate which is bullshit really. We have un unsurmountable debt and yet all the indications are that we will make that debt bigger today by lumping more money into failed institutions.

If he stands up today and says that we will renegotiate the monies owed by offering to repay 1 million a year for 40000 years to the the ECB/IMF/German/French banks then we are not defaulting only restutructuring we may have a way out otherwise we'll just be delaying the inevitable
I don't think this will make the debt bigger, my understanding is that this money has already been set aside and that the 85BN IMF/EU bailout includes 35BN set aside for this round of recapitalisations?  I could be well off the mark with that though.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on March 31, 2011, 04:01:45 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 31, 2011, 03:52:32 PMYou could sell the herd for 2K in the current market via Facebook  but how are you going to repay the father in law? 
And who should bear the loss ?   

If you were the golden calfcircle you would have borrowed the money to buy the cows from the father in law on a non-recourse basis therefore he'd bear the loss.  At least it'd be some payback for being made marry his daughter at gunpoint!!

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Kerry Mike on March 31, 2011, 04:10:36 PM
QuoteIn more good news:
Aynsley paid €974,000 in 2010

The chief executive of Anglo Irish Bank, Mike Aynsley, was paid €974,000 for 2010. His remuneration included a basic salary of €500,000 and a pension contribution of €133,000. He also received benefits of €341,000 made up of relocation expenses, travel expenses and and rent allowance.

Mr Aynsley relocated from Australia to Ireland to take up his position and his wife and family still live there. Speaking on Morning Ireland, he said he planned to remain in Ireland.

Anglo Irish Bank chairman Alan Dukes received pay of €127,000 for the year. Former chairman Donal O'Connor, who resigned from the board, in June received €114,000.

€974k and they made a loss of €17.7bn for the year !!!

Anglo Irish Bank has confirmed losses in excess of €17.5bn for last year.

The defunct bank's audited accounts have been released ahead of the publication of stress tests on other Irish banks.

They are the worst set of figures of any business in Irish corporate history.

€17.7bn is the grand total of Anglo's losses for 2010, slightly above guidance given last month.

That comprises rotten loans with no prospect of being repaid of €7.8bn and discounts forced on the bank from the transfer of its larger property loans to NAMA. The so-called haircut there is €11.5bn.

Anglo Irish is a bank in wind down tasked with managing the repayment of some €35bn of loans still on its books.

In the last few weeks, its deposit book has been transferred to Allied Irish Bank.

Thus far, it has cost the taxpayer €29.3bn in recapitalisation costs. The size of its future loan losses yet to filter through and which may lead to further injections of money is still the subject of conjecture. It still has around €35bn of loans on its books.

No more taxpayer money needed - Aynsley

Anglo's Chief Executive Mike Aynsley has said the Government has been 'incredibly helpful' during the year and said that the bank has received €29.3bn in support so far.

He added that he is confident the Irish taxpayer will not need to put any more money into the bank.

Mr Aynsley said that the problems in the banking industry are not confined to Ireland, but are affecting other peripheral countries in Europe.

The Anglo CEO said the bank had a workforce of 1,800 when it was nationalised, which was then cut to about 800.

200 staff were transferred to AIB when the bank transferred its deposits last month.

He predicted the bank will have a workforce of about 1,000 by the end of the year and added that a lot of extensive work has been done on restructuring.

It also emerged today that Mr Aynsley received a total pay package of just under €1m for 2010.

According to the bank's annual report, Mr Aynsley was paid a €500,000 salary, €341,000 in benefits and €133,000 in pension payments; amounting to €974,000 in total.

Anglo's chairman, Alan Dukes received €127,000.

Other non-executive directors, Noel Cawley and Aidan Eames received €52,000 each. Donal O'Connor was paid €114,000, Maurice Keane was paid €112,000 and Gary Kennedy received €59,000.


Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on March 31, 2011, 04:13:48 PM
A good day to reveal news like that.

So far:

* Anglo announces worse results in Irish corporate history
* Anglo announce CX gets nearly €1,000,000 in Bailout money as remuneration
* Irish Nationwide Basketcase Society will raise Variable Rate by .65%

Anything else out there that people are hoping we won't notice after 1630 today?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on March 31, 2011, 04:36:55 PM
here we go

twitter:

Bank of Ireland needs €5.2bn. AIB needs €13.3bn. Irish Life needs €4bn. EBS needs €1.5bn. Total €24bn
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on March 31, 2011, 04:48:22 PM
twitter Colm Toibín:

They could announce any number/measurement at this stage. "300 Moons will have to be pumped into the banks." Grand so.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: armaghniac on March 31, 2011, 05:53:13 PM
RTE reporting capital requirements for the four banks in today's exercise of €24 billion.

AIB 13.3
BOI 5.2
EBS 1.5
ILP 4

EBS & AIB to be merged. BOI to try and stay private.

from Irisheconomy.ie

The earth is 4.5 billion years old. That means that if from the beginning of time here itself, €5 had been put aside each and every long weary year from before life, through the time of the ancient single-celled creatures of the seas, the almost endless reign of the plants and insects, through the long, long reign of the dinosaurs, past their fall, the slow rise of the mammals and ourselves at last and our wandering development across the earth and city life of only six or seven thousand years, if €5 had been put away each and every year, we still would not have built up what the banks need today.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on March 31, 2011, 07:30:28 PM
It would be sort of funny if the FF opposition appeared on Prime time accusing the government of caving in to the ECB and
putting bondholders before taxpayers, the way Noonan did before he became a Minister. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bennydorano on March 31, 2011, 09:04:54 PM
I've been dipping in and out of this discussion but did the bailout provide any additional funds to meet the unforseen? It was hardly a big secret amongst those in the know I'd imagine.  If not, defaulting now is a terrible option, get the additional funds at whatever percent to cover this shitpile and then default.

Does this running catastrophe not have an end in sight? It really is spectacular in a car crash sort of way.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on March 31, 2011, 10:39:13 PM
24bn was probably stagemanaged. If the Eurowallahs admitted the damage was north of 40bn the game would have been up.
So there were presentation considerations.

The most important thing is to keep within the limit of sustainable sov. debt . I can't see the markets buying it.

RTE are calling it "radical". Anything but. And nothing on bondholders.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on April 01, 2011, 12:44:42 AM
according to gay mitchell (FG's man in the know in Europe), senior bondholders cannot be burnt because they have the same legal standing as depositors, is that actually true?  I can see how it might be almost true, but the fact remains that depositors have the additional security blanket of a state guarantee of deposits up to 100K, hence unguaranteed bondholders could still be told that they're getting 25c in the euro and they'd not have much choice but to accept that.  Is there 26 Bn in unguaranteed senior bonds to be rolled over into sovereign debt this year?  We could easily turn that into 6.5BN, I suppose the question is, who are the bondholders?  Irish pension funds?  Irish credit unions?  I don't know.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Ulick on April 01, 2011, 12:57:42 AM
There was a list of bondholders published on p.ie a few months back and from what I remember they were mostly big German investors well able to take a hit. As for them having the same legal standing as depositors, the government could pass legislation to decouple that is the will was there.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on April 01, 2011, 01:33:10 AM
Quote from: Ulick on April 01, 2011, 12:57:42 AM
There was a list of bondholders published on p.ie a few months back and from what I remember they were mostly big German investors well able to take a hit. As for them having the same legal standing as depositors, the government could pass legislation to decouple that is the will was there.

Any depositor with €105,000 would be fully covered only up to €100,000. What is the problem with saying to bondholders the same applies to you?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hardy on April 01, 2011, 01:41:17 AM
Isn't it the case that most of the bondholders have already been sorted out and the opportunity to "burn" them is gone? I heard somebody say that all that's left of bondholder exposure to the Irish banks is 16Bn of the 170-odd Bn they've borrowed. A substantial proportion of those are Irish institutions, holding Irish taxpayers' money. Even if you gave them all a 50% haircut you'd only be saving, in current expenditure terms, a few hundred million in interest payments of the multi billions of interest per annum we're exposed to.

At this stage, burning the bondholders would cost us more in bad will than it would save in expenditure. The time to burn them was at the time of the guarantee in which they should not have been included.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on April 01, 2011, 01:55:57 AM
Quote from: Hardy on April 01, 2011, 01:41:17 AM
Isn't it the case that most of the bondholders have already been sorted out and the opportunity to "burn" them is gone? I heard somebody say that all that's left of bondholder exposure to the Irish banks is 16Bn of the 170-odd Bn they've borrowed. A substantial proportion of those are Irish institutions, holding Irish taxpayers' money. Even if you gave them all a 50% haircut you'd only be saving, in current expenditure terms, a few hundred million in interest payments of the multi billions of interest per annum we're exposed to.

At this stage, burning the bondholders would cost us more in bad will than it would save in expenditure. The time to burn them was at the time of the guarantee in which they should not have been included.
Just watched VB show, it seems that there's still 35bn unguaranteed, but the decision has been made that it would be counter-productive to burn them.  I see that point to an extent, but still, the reason these guys got a above the then sovereign rate was because of the additional risk of default, it's how capitalism is supposed to work.  If the lenders had done their homework properly, they'd not be in this situation.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on April 01, 2011, 08:20:39 AM
QuoteWell I've heard nothing from him yet that indicates any different

Well there you go - same message different face. So our obligation to ECB Germany and France is more important than to the citizens. What part of unsustainable debt do these people not understand. Great little country alright. Listening to Honohan last night just confimed everything. Contagion, contagion is their big fear and we still cant understand that the whole system is fecked
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: balladmaker on April 01, 2011, 08:25:39 AM
QuoteWho is going to want to buy AIB ?
The bank has a huge portfolio of tracker mortgages that are loss making and that is even before talking about defaults.
As long as house prices keep falling nobody is going to want to buy the banks.

It is like trying to sell a herd of cattle when the marts are all closed due to an extended dose (coming on 3 years)  of Foot and Mouth  and nobody is buying.

Add the fact that most of the animals are sick and you the farmer owe your father in law 100K  that you borrowed to buy the stock
when prices were high and all the marts were open.

You could sell the herd for 2K in the current market via Facebook  but how are you going to repay the father in law? 
And who should bear the loss ?   

I think you missed the point slightly Seafoid.  McWilliams suggestion to 'try' to sell the banks was to illustrate that no one would ever touch them.  So if no other bank would buy them, why the hell should the Irish tax payer be expected to.  This is car crash viewing at it's worst with the ordinary Irish taxpayer stuck in the driving seat.  Those with vested interests in Germany and France must be quietly rubbing their hands.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: rrhf on April 01, 2011, 08:55:35 AM
Can they bring the queens visit forward?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Kerry Mike on April 01, 2011, 09:10:59 AM
AIB down 20%
IL&P down 50%
BoI up 25%

Looks like the markets are none too impressed with the stress tests and the extra €24,000,000,000.00ish

Than again 50% of nothing is nothing !
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: AZOffaly on April 01, 2011, 09:26:08 AM
Did Fine Gael not 'promise' before the election that 'Not one more cent' would be put into the banks without the bondholders also sharing the burden?

What happened to that?

They are all wankers.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Kerry Mike on April 01, 2011, 09:39:15 AM
QuoteA good day to reveal news like that.

So far:

* Anglo announces worse results in Irish corporate history
* Anglo announce CX gets nearly €1,000,000 in Bailout money as remuneration
* Irish Nationwide Basketcase Society will raise Variable Rate by .65%

Anything else out there that people are hoping we won't notice after 1630 today?

Another bit of great Anglo news that escaped the news yesterday, incredible none of this made the main evening news on RTE TV last night, was there a moratorium on bad news put in place !!

Top executive left with €3.2m 'goodbye money'By Conor Ryan - Friday, April 01, 2011

THE former chief executive of Anglo Irish Bank's British arm walked away from the bank last year with €3.2m in goodbye money.

Declan Quilligan had been in the post since 2005 and before that he was the head of the institution's banking business in Ireland.

Anglo's annual accounts showed that he was given €844,222 instead of working out his notice and this was topped off with €65,417 in holiday money he had not claimed.

However, the bulk of his parachute payment came by way of a €1.98m cash contribution for his pension.

When he left the bank, he had loans of more than €3m outstanding. For this reason, Anglo held back his pension pot, €915,625 after tax, to cover part of the bill.

Another €439,829 was held on deposit to help service the rest of what he owed the bank.

He left the nationalised institution in March 2010 after receiving a bonus of €262,223 for work he did in 2006.

The bank had to stump up €409,205 in taxes that were due, but Anglo's accounts said the majority of this had been repaid to it.

Mr Quilligan moved to take over the British operations after working his way up through a bank he joined in 1990. He survived the cull of key managers following the nationalisation in 2009 and remained on until the second clear-out in March 2010.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on April 01, 2011, 09:56:28 AM
Two things in todays Times that hit me. Firstly Patsy McGarry's piece which I'm sure will strike a resonance with people:

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2011/0401/1224293541808.html (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2011/0401/1224293541808.html)

But more strikingly a letter from a mother and wife in Malahide which details the real impact on our people

Madam, – Today my husband left Ireland to work abroad. For how long? I'm not certain, six months for sure, maybe longer.

And as the reality of our situation sets in, the elation of him finally getting a job – after two years and four months of being unemployed – turns to sadness, seasoned with a slight hint of panic. To quote my 12 year old son: I am confused.

The most frustrating thing is that while there are plenty of people to blame, plenty of people who can be held responsible, I don't believe any of them will actually be held accountable.

So tonight we said goodnight to him over the phone and I cursed all those who created this bizarre mess and I would like them to read this letter and know that even though they will probably escape both trial and conviction, I and our three children hold them absolutely and personally accountable. – Yours, etc,
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: balladmaker on April 01, 2011, 10:23:40 AM
QuoteDid Fine Gael not 'promise' before the election that 'Not one more cent' would be put into the banks without the bondholders also sharing the burden?

What happened to that?

They are all w**kers.

They did indeed say that, as was replayed again on RTE last night.  No better than the last shower.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on April 01, 2011, 10:32:03 AM
Quote from: Declan on April 01, 2011, 09:56:28 AM
Two things in todays Times that hit me. Firstly Patsy McGarry's piece which I'm sure will strike a resonance with people:

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2011/0401/1224293541808.html (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2011/0401/1224293541808.html)

But more strikingly a letter from a mother and wife in Malahide which details the real impact on our people

Madam, – Today my husband left Ireland to work abroad. For how long? I'm not certain, six months for sure, maybe longer.

And as the reality of our situation sets in, the elation of him finally getting a job – after two years and four months of being unemployed – turns to sadness, seasoned with a slight hint of panic. To quote my 12 year old son: I am confused.

The most frustrating thing is that while there are plenty of people to blame, plenty of people who can be held responsible, I don't believe any of them will actually be held accountable.

So tonight we said goodnight to him over the phone and I cursed all those who created this bizarre mess and I would like them to read this letter and know that even though they will probably escape both trial and conviction, I and our three children hold them absolutely and personally accountable. – Yours, etc,


I was really struck by those 2 pieces. The Ballaghadereen emigration trail and that poor mother.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: GaillimhIarthair on April 01, 2011, 11:22:58 AM
Quote from: AZOffaly on April 01, 2011, 09:26:08 AM
Did Fine Gael not 'promise' before the election that 'Not one more cent' would be put into the banks without the bondholders also sharing the burden?

What happened to that?

They are all w**kers.
As per Thomas Molloy in todays independent -

"That was just a load of guff to win the election. The Government made it clear last night that there would be no change in the Fianna Fail policy of rolling over and doing everything we're told"


Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Franko on April 01, 2011, 12:27:47 PM
Where is the FG chief drum beater Mayogodhelpus now? No defence of your beloved party and it's leader?? 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on April 01, 2011, 01:16:42 PM
It's clear that there will be a default, everyone knows it, but until the fear of contagion is gone it can't be realised.
In my opinion we just have to wait out the next year odd and join in the charade that we're going to repay all our debt.  I don't know if this little bluff will work, I can't see how it will tbh, but it's probably the only chance we have.

Anyone got any other solutions?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Rossfan on April 01, 2011, 02:06:41 PM
Quote from: GaillimhIarthair on April 01, 2011, 11:22:58 AM
Quote from: AZOffaly on April 01, 2011, 09:26:08 AM
Did Fine Gael not 'promise' before the election that 'Not one more cent' would be put into the banks without the bondholders also sharing the burden?

What happened to that?

They are all w**kers.
As per Thomas Molloy in todays independent -

"That was just a load of guff to win the election. The Government made it clear last night that there would be no change in the Fianna Fail policy of rolling over and doing everything we're told"
When a Country and it's banks between them owe about €400,000,000,000 you do what your told .
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: orangeman on April 01, 2011, 02:12:32 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 31, 2011, 02:02:38 PM
Quote from: rossie mad on March 31, 2011, 01:47:48 PM
Quote from: Declan on March 31, 2011, 01:31:53 PM
QuoteSurely though he can't blindly continue Lenihan's lunacy of shoveling money we don't have and can't repay, down a bottomless pit?

Well I've heard nothing from him yet that indicates any different. All I've heard is renegotiate the interest rate which is bullshit really. We have un unsurmountable debt and yet all the indications are that we will make that debt bigger today by lumping more money into failed institutions.

If he stands up today and says that we will renegotiate the monies owed by offering to repay 1 million a year for 40000 years to the the ECB/IMF/German/French banks then we are not defaulting only restutructuring we may have a way out otherwise we'll just be delaying the inevitable

In your opinion declan what is the inevitable?

Imagine your home budget where you owe 200k, spend 50k a year and earn only 32k (tax free). Where would this end up?

For Ireland switch the 'k' for Billion.

Anyone who understands the above is as qualified as the next man to predict what comes next.

That's as good an explanation as I've seen from amybody so far on the plight that Ireland now faces.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on April 01, 2011, 02:26:52 PM
Quote from: AZOffaly on April 01, 2011, 09:26:08 AM
Did Fine Gael not 'promise' before the election that 'Not one more cent' would be put into the banks without the bondholders also sharing the burden?

What happened to that?

They are all w**kers.

http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/kfeyeyidcwgb/rss2/?sms_ss=yahoomail (http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/kfeyeyidcwgb/rss2/?sms_ss=yahoomail)

Not a cent more for the banks, vows FG
By Mary Regan, Paul O'Brien and Ann Cahill
Thursday, February 10, 2011
FINE GAEL insisted it would not commit "another cent" to the banks on top of the €35 billion agreed to under the EU/IMF bailout deal.


Read more: http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/kfeyeyidcwgb/rss2/?sms_ss=yahoomail#ixzz1IHHNmB00


I am as pissed off as anyone but can people at least stick to the facts.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: AZOffaly on April 01, 2011, 02:34:20 PM
Frontbench spokesperson Leo Varadkar said banks should not be given any more capital without renegotiating with bondholders.

"Any bank coming to us looking for more money is going to have to show how they are going to impose losses on their junior bondholders, on their senior bondholders, and on other creditors before they come looking to us for any more money. Not another cent."



Read more: http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/kfeyeyidcwgb/rss2/?sms_ss=yahoomail#ixzz1IHJ7EPF9


I thought this stress test amount *was* on top of the €35b. So basically, This extra €24b or whatever stupid number it is now, is going to be committed without involving the bondholders. Or am I missing something entirely?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on April 01, 2011, 02:38:16 PM
Quote from: AZOffaly on April 01, 2011, 02:34:20 PM
Frontbench spokesperson Leo Varadkar said banks should not be given any more capital without renegotiating with bondholders.

"Any bank coming to us looking for more money is going to have to show how they are going to impose losses on their junior bondholders, on their senior bondholders, and on other creditors before they come looking to us for any more money. Not another cent."



Read more: http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/kfeyeyidcwgb/rss2/?sms_ss=yahoomail#ixzz1IHJ7EPF9


I thought this stress test amount *was* on top of the €35b. So basically, This extra €24b or whatever stupid number it is now, is going to be committed without involving the bondholders. Or am I missing something entirely?

It is part of the €35 Billion earmarked for banks as part of the IMF/EU bailout. There was €10bn up front, up to €25bn more dependent on the stress tests (we know now it will be a max (haha) of €24bn after yesterday. FG promised no more on top of that. Yes it was a clever political ploy because people didn't know the difference but it is not a broken promise.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: AZOffaly on April 01, 2011, 02:44:21 PM
Quote from: muppet on April 01, 2011, 02:38:16 PM
Quote from: AZOffaly on April 01, 2011, 02:34:20 PM
Frontbench spokesperson Leo Varadkar said banks should not be given any more capital without renegotiating with bondholders.

"Any bank coming to us looking for more money is going to have to show how they are going to impose losses on their junior bondholders, on their senior bondholders, and on other creditors before they come looking to us for any more money. Not another cent."



Read more: http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/kfeyeyidcwgb/rss2/?sms_ss=yahoomail#ixzz1IHJ7EPF9


I thought this stress test amount *was* on top of the €35b. So basically, This extra €24b or whatever stupid number it is now, is going to be committed without involving the bondholders. Or am I missing something entirely?

It is part of the €35 Billion earmarked for banks as part of the IMF/EU bailout. There was €10bn up front, up to €25bn more dependent on the stress tests (we know now it will be a max (haha) of €24bn after yesterday. FG promised no more on top of the. Yes it was a clever political ploy because people didn't know the difference but it is not a broken promise.

So the 'stress tests' have miraculously shown that the 'up to' amount was just enough. How convenient.

I knew that FG had more or less said that what's done is done wrt the €35b, but I was under the illusion that this €24b was on top of that amount. IF that is not the case, then I withdraw my remark, although I am getting less convinced by the day that there will be any difference, sadly.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on April 01, 2011, 03:52:30 PM
Quote from: AZOffaly on April 01, 2011, 02:44:21 PM
Quote from: muppet on April 01, 2011, 02:38:16 PM
Quote from: AZOffaly on April 01, 2011, 02:34:20 PM
Frontbench spokesperson Leo Varadkar said banks should not be given any more capital without renegotiating with bondholders.

"Any bank coming to us looking for more money is going to have to show how they are going to impose losses on their junior bondholders, on their senior bondholders, and on other creditors before they come looking to us for any more money. Not another cent."



Read more: http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/kfeyeyidcwgb/rss2/?sms_ss=yahoomail#ixzz1IHJ7EPF9


I thought this stress test amount *was* on top of the €35b. So basically, This extra €24b or whatever stupid number it is now, is going to be committed without involving the bondholders. Or am I missing something entirely?

It is part of the €35 Billion earmarked for banks as part of the IMF/EU bailout. There was €10bn up front, up to €25bn more dependent on the stress tests (we know now it will be a max (haha) of €24bn after yesterday. FG promised no more on top of the. Yes it was a clever political ploy because people didn't know the difference but it is not a broken promise.

So the 'stress tests' have miraculously shown that the 'up to' amount was just enough. How convenient.

I knew that FG had more or less said that what's done is done wrt the €35b, but I was under the illusion that this €24b was on top of that amount. IF that is not the case, then I withdraw my remark, although I am getting less convinced by the day that there will be any difference, sadly.

I think the game is on behinds the scenes.

This is a decent report from Channel 4:

http://blogs.channel4.com/faisal-islam-on-economics/missing-elements-of-irish-bank-deal-suggest-eurozone-itself-is-under-severe-stress-test/13995 (http://blogs.channel4.com/faisal-islam-on-economics/missing-elements-of-irish-bank-deal-suggest-eurozone-itself-is-under-severe-stress-test/13995)

I just got quite an interesting internal account of what happened between Irish leader Enda Kenny and President Sarkozy/ Chancellor Merkel at the Euro Summit two weeks ago. Finance ministers decided that Michael Noonan's attempt to renegotiate the bailout deal (lower interest rates) was a matter for heads of state so kicked upstairs to the European Summit.

Enda Kenny turned up and "he was very cocky. He sat down and told everybody 'this package isn't working, we are a new government, it has to change'. Both the content and the attitude was a stark contrast to the much more humble approach of [Georges] Papandreou, [the Greek PM]. It had a terrible impact. Merkel and Sarkozy were very upset. They said: "We went to our parliaments and got billions and billions at huge political cost – forget it"


We need to get them very very scared. Greeks citizens are close to anarchy while the EU are happy with their humble leader. That sums up why the EU is failing for me.

However we have only one weapon, and it wipes all of us out. It has to be used very wisely.


Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: supersarsfields on April 01, 2011, 03:57:25 PM
Quote from: Franko on April 01, 2011, 12:27:47 PM
Where is the FG chief drum beater Mayogodhelpus now? No defence of your beloved party and it's leader??

He's very angry. He's just counting to ten to cool down and he'll be along.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on April 01, 2011, 04:01:20 PM
Some prescient tweets from one Nick Leeson:

popular consensus is against banks too big too fail yet ireland is set to reverse this trend by amalgamating all banks into two

The stress tests will virtually be redundant the moment they are published, Ireland is continually drifting towards the 'stressed' level.

newspaper reports today suggest that todays injection of cash into irish banks will draw a line under the financial crisis - not a chance

rapidly declining growth forecasts, increasing unemployment, limited if any liquidity in the banking system, this isnt a line being drawn
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on April 01, 2011, 04:30:03 PM
The Vincent Brown show from last night should be watched by anyone with an interest in any of this bailout guff - excellent stuff.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on April 01, 2011, 04:31:23 PM
http://www.irishlifeandpermanent.com/~/media/Files/I/Irish-Life-And-Permanent/Attachments/pdf/presentations/pcar-plar-31032011.pdf

Loss calculation on ROI Residential Mortgage is the key difference; this is driven by
Significantly higher probability of default assumed
No forbearance resulting in accelerated repossessions, and
Higher losses on repossessed loans

what is this going to mean for people in trouble with their mortgages ? 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bensars on April 01, 2011, 04:35:17 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on April 01, 2011, 04:30:03 PM
The Vincent Brown show from last night should be watched by anyone with an interest in any of this bailout guff - excellent stuff.

Thought it was very good(although didnt see start). Thought Bruton was shown up badly by knit picking on the smallest items the economist was saying while totally ignoring the argument.  It was a case of paisley politics, where if i shout you down you'll move on to another topic
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on April 02, 2011, 11:52:11 AM
This was on irisheconomy

michael burke Says:
April 1st, 2011 at 9:55 pm
It is a fiction to suggest that the effects of these bailouts will be either a properly functioning banking system or one that can make any positive contribution to growth. But then the bailouts have never been designed for either purpose- but simply to make whole investors who would otherwise be obliged to enjoy the fruits of the financial markets they have extolled so long.
I'm only surprised there remain such boosters for what would in any other circumstance be regarded as a fraud perpetrated on a state borrower and its taxpayers.

Blackrock identified a further €40bn in potential losses- but this may be an underestimate, with less than €1bn identified in British mortgage lending.
Yesterday the BoE expressed its 'surprise' at increasing default rates once more, both mortgages and small businesses- but the wonder is any central bank that is surprised at growing defaults when government spending cuts suck the life out of the economy, investment is being cut, and incomes are falling.
How easily are the neo-Thatcherites surprised at the effects of their own handiwork- both sides of the Irish Sea.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on April 03, 2011, 12:30:26 AM
http://www.thepost.ie/post/pages/p/story.aspx-qqqt=THE-INSIDER-qqqs=themarket-qqqs=computersinbusiness-qqqid=55276-qqqx=1.asp (http://www.thepost.ie/post/pages/p/story.aspx-qqqt=THE-INSIDER-qqqs=themarket-qqqs=computersinbusiness-qqqid=55276-qqqx=1.asp)

Are private pensions up for grabs?

The focus on the enormous holes in the balance sheets of our banks has distracted attention from some of the alternative solutions being adopted by other EU countries to help resolve their financial crises.

These solutions are of interest to investors in private pension funds, as the crisis measures have included seizing private pension assets to plug the gaping holes in both bank and government balance sheets.

Take Hungary, for example. In February, it cancelled $7.5 billion worth of government bonds after grabbing privately-managed pension funds to cut the country's indebtedness.

The appropriation of the assets came despite protests from leading pension fund managers, as well as legal threats.

The raid was carried out by Hungary's Debt Management Agency, which is roughly equivalent to our own National Treasury Management Agency.

László Buzás, the deputy chief executive officer of the agency, told news agency Bloomberg that by cancelling the government bonds, the government would reduce Hungary's debt by 5.5 percentage points from about 80 per cent of gross domestic product.

Hungary followed the example of Argentina, which in 2001 confiscated about $3.2 billion of pension savings before the country stopped servicing its debt.

The Argentinian government also nationalised the $24 billion industry two years ago to compensate for falling tax revenue after a 2005 debt-restructuring. The February raid on private sector pension funds was a measure of how desperate the financial situation in Hungary had become.

The idea of raiding state pension funds has long been popular with European governments seeking to plug the holes in their exchequers' finances.

Our own government has plundered the €24 billion state owned National Pension Reserve Fund to help cover the costs of recapitalising our bust banks. It has also imposed a pension levy on public sector workers, and increased the age at which the state pension will be paid out.

The effect of increasing the retirement age from 65 to 68 is that people will be missing out on state pension payments of about €1 billion a year.

The affected cohort of 65-year-olds will forgo a state pension of €12,000 a year for three years once the retirement age is increased to 68,an effective loss of €36,000 per person.

With our state pension reserves heavily depleted and our senior citizens soon being expected to work till the age of 68, the cash-strapped government is increasingly turning its attention to other sources of funding.

While no one is suggesting that the government has any plans to nationalise our private pension funds, both the former and the current administrations have been dreaming up wheezes to use private sector pension funds to help prop up the public finances.

The now-departed Fianna Fáil/Greens government introduced the concept of a sovereign annuity bond, which is to be issued by the state to Irish pension funds.

Once the technicalities have been ironed out, this will pave the way for private pension money to be invested in high yielding Irish government bonds.

The pensions industry lobbied for the move because it saw the higher returns available as a way of plugging the holes in private sector pension schemes.

But the risk is that, if the Irish sovereign were to default (as some influential commentators expect), private pensioners would lose out.

The new government is also eyeing private-sector pensions as a source of revenue. Fine Gael's election manifesto called for the introduction of a 0.5 per cent tax on all private pension funds.

The party said during the election campaign that it would publish a jobs budget with a cost of €381 million within 100 days of entering government, which would be funded by the early payment of the first tranche of the 0.5 per cent levy on pension funds.

The pensions industry opposes this proposal.

Jerry Moriarty, chief executive of the Irish Association of Pension Funds (IAPF),ha s argued that applying a levy to the pension fund industry would only make matters worse at a time when many pension schemes have been struggling to plug the massive holes in their schemes.

The shortfall in the private sector defined benefit schemes was estimated at €13 billion at the end of 2008.

Since then, trustees, employers and members have been focusing on reducing those deficits. ''To now levy those funds only makes a bad situation worse," he said.

It has been suggested that those schemes could cut the benefits of an estimated 65,000 pension members to take account of the levy - a move which would, in Moriarty's words,' 'penalise the prudent''.

But the scale of the EU's banking and fiscal crisis is now so enormous that it is entirely possible that governments will find themselves penalising the prudent in an effort to shore up the public finances.

This column has previously highlighted how the Danish government decided that some depositors in Amagerbanken, a small, insolvent Danish bank should contribute to the cost of bailing it out.

The depositors learned last month that they would lose 41 per cent of any amount they held on deposit over the statutory guarantee limit of €100,000.The depositors were effectively forced to take a 41 per cent haircut alongside the bondholders.

The Hungarian and Danish governments' moves serve as yet another reminder that the financial crisis in Europe is now so deep that EU governments are giving consideration to measures which were unthinkable only a few short years ago.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on April 04, 2011, 11:58:25 AM
Gene Kerrigan: Transfer of power now truly complete
The policies imposed on the last coalition will continue into the foreseeable future, says Gene Kerrigan
Sunday April 03 2011

Welcome to Occupied Ireland. We haven't been invaded, there was no siege, but after last Thursday I trust the governing arrangements are crystal clear?

In recent weeks it wasn't just the banks that were stress tested -- the robustness of our democratic structures were assessed. And we saw the result. We are free to vote for a government, but it's a puppet government, a Vichy regime.

The power lies with a handful of unelected EU mandarins, and the proconsuls they appoint to look after the details. The policies imposed on the late unlamented Biffo administration will continue -- protect the bondholders, protect the euro, try to make up the difference by cutting services, wages and jobs. The jargon we must use to describe our rulers has been specified: "Our External Partners".

On Thursday, our elected parliamentarians began to understand the limits of their power. They were allowed to, for instance, censure Michael Lowry -- though they had to pay the price of listening to the man whine incessantly about how that nasty Judge Moriarty just took it into his head to victimise poor Mick.

While this was happening, the economic and fiscal straitjacket to be imposed on the citizens for the foreseeable future was handed down to the new Minister for Finance, Michael Noonan. Billions of euros could be saved by telling the bondholders their gambles with Sean FitzPatrick and the like failed -- tough luck. It's what we were told during the election campaign. But Our External Partners warn us: Do that and we'll collapse the Irish state.

And Fianna Fail's Brian Lenihan, who bears huge responsibility for the condition we're in, proudly announced that Noonan's "speech was the same speech I would have delivered", and he was right. As this column pointed out before the election -- the EU/IMF/FF/Green government had run its course. And the country would henceforth be run by the EU/IMF/FG/Labour coalition, in the interests of the German, French, UK and Irish bankers.

Last week, the most frank statement about this country's plight came not from any of our Leinster House blowhards. It came from a man named Muhamed El-Erian, one of the world's foremost capitalists. We will deal presently with the thoughts of Muhamed, but let's first nail down the reality of The Occupation.

No one better to outline this than Professor Patrick Honohan, governor of the Central Bank. While agreeing that what is happening "doesn't score highly on fairness", Honohan pointed out that the Government will be able to continue a process of negotiation with the EU. In short, the elected politicians are free to petition Our External Partners to make minor adjustments to their orders.

As for the €70bn we're gifting the bankers (in reality, somewhat more than €100bn), Honohan says, that "returning to growth will make that affordable". He believes, "If our economy goes well, if we get back to growth, get to full employment, then we can pay this easily."

How soon will we reach full employment, then? Well, the document produced by the Central Bank and Our External Partners predicts that if things go spectacularly well unemployment will fall to a steady 5.8 per cent by 2020. (For that to happen, unemployment would have to be 13.4 per cent this year -- it's already 14.7 per cent). If things don't go so well, the Central Bank and Our External Partners predict that unemployment won't go down to 5.8 per cent until 2028.

So, we must continue the policy of feeding borrowed billions to the zombie banks, and cutting income and services, for the next nine years (all going well). Or the next 17 years (all going not so well).

And as things get better, we can relax the austerity, enjoy the fruits of our hard labour, right?

Eh, no. According to Professor Honohan, "the arrangements with our European partners could over time be restructured in such a way that we give them a bigger share of our prosperity and our growth."

In short, if we make huge sacrifices and we work very, very hard and somehow achieve a new, true economic boom, the benefits of that won't go into better hospitals and schools, higher wages, civilised services and a better standard of living. It will continue to go into paying off other people's gambling debts.

To protect the European banks that recklessly lent to reckless Irish banks, a generation of Irish people -- who weren't even aware this was going on -- is to be sacrificed.

And all this assumes that the policies imposed by Our External Partners will work. And that savagely deflating an economy will lead to growth. Last week, economist Paul Krugman pointed out that the Irish Government "tried to reassure markets by imposing savage austerity measures on ordinary citizens . . . Since then, the interest rate on Irish debt has doubled".

In downgrading Ireland on Friday, Standard and Poor's warned investors that "sovereign debt restructuring is a possible precondition to borrowing from the European Stability Mechanism." Translation: to continue borrowing for zombie banks, the State may have to default on its own debts.

From the start, those of us on the Left pleaded for attention to be given first to the real economy -- but the mantra continued, fix the banks, fix the banks. A jobs stimulus was out of the question -- we don't have any money (throw another ten billion into the oul banks, there, Patsy).

Muhamed El-Erian is the CEO of Pimco, one of the world's biggest bond investors. Connected to Oxford, Cambridge and Harvard, he served 15 years with the IMF and wrote a prizewinning book on economics. More relevant, he oversees investment strategies involving trillions of dollars. In short, he's no Joe Higgins.

Last week, El-Erian told Bloomberg: "The only people doing their fair share right now -- in fact I would say they're doing more than their fair share -- are the taxpayers of Ireland who are having to go through a tremendous austerity, and the IMF and the EU that are putting in money. Most of the creditors so far have not gone through any burden sharing. It is remarkable. It is inadvisable. It is a political decision that has been taken. It surprises me. I do not think you can sustain that political decision."

In the same interview, El-Erian warned of how inequality engenders social unrest. He's no radical, he believes the current policies of protecting the rich while screwing the citizens will lead to destabilised societies. And that's bad for his business.

Another Pimco executive, Andrew Bosomworth, was quoted in the Irish Independent on Thursday. "Ireland is closing kindergartens to pay senior bondholders -- ethically that is a very questionable policy." The ethics of our government and Our External Partners are being questioned by some of the most aggressive capitalists on the planet.

Our leaders are constitutionally obliged to hold a referendum to seek permission for any substantial change in the treaties governing our relationship with Our External Partners. That relationship has now, without consulting the people, become one of master and servant. A vote for change meant nothing. The Oireachtas has been blatantly sidelined. Ethics don't count for much these days, but if democracy means anything there's an irrefutable case for a referendum on the package imposed without mandate on the citizens.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: thejuice on April 06, 2011, 09:51:47 PM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12993318

Portugal is officially asking for a bailout.

I suppose the only words are, "oh shit"
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on April 07, 2011, 09:39:21 AM
The more the merrier. It is not just a case of national fecklessness. The Euro system is flawed.  Ireland has an interest in having more countries in bailout mode. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: thejuice on April 07, 2011, 10:49:48 AM
Indeed, but I think we're in for a bumpy ride as this continues.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bailestil on April 07, 2011, 12:07:46 PM
I don't understand how the Euro is still so strong against sterling.

Is sterling considered in a worse state than the Euro.

I assumed the Euro value will be in meltdown long before now.
Can anyone explain to me why?

Another summer of expensive holidays :(
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: whiskeysteve on April 07, 2011, 12:13:55 PM
Quote from: bailestil on April 07, 2011, 12:07:46 PM
I don't understand how the Euro is still so strong against sterling.

Is sterling considered in a worse state than the Euro.

I assumed the Euro value will be in meltdown long before now.
Can anyone explain to me why?

Another summer of expensive holidays :(

My limited understanding of it would be that the UK, via quantitative easing, has been printing money at a higher relative rate to Europe hence devaluing Sterling.

The Germans are reluctant to go down that route to avoid inflation.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: armaghniac on April 07, 2011, 12:53:10 PM
The reason why the Irish carry on was so stupid was that they were acting as if they were in Britain, where inflation is called upon to reduce debt, rather than the Eurozone.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on April 07, 2011, 01:58:33 PM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on April 07, 2011, 12:13:55 PM
Quote from: bailestil on April 07, 2011, 12:07:46 PM
I don't understand how the Euro is still so strong against sterling.

Is sterling considered in a worse state than the Euro.

I assumed the Euro value will be in meltdown long before now.
Can anyone explain to me why?

Another summer of expensive holidays :(

My limited understanding of it would be that the UK, via quantitative easing, has been printing money at a higher relative rate to Europe hence devaluing Sterling.

The Germans are reluctant to go down that route to avoid inflation.

Raising interest rates in the Eurozone while Sterling remains unchanged will probably exacerbate this.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on April 07, 2011, 01:59:03 PM
Quote from: bailestil on April 07, 2011, 12:07:46 PM
I don't understand how the Euro is still so strong against sterling.

Is sterling considered in a worse state than the Euro.

I assumed the Euro value will be in meltdown long before now.
Can anyone explain to me why?

Another summer of expensive holidays :(
The ECB interest rate was raised today, the first in a long run of hikes.

And yes, in general the UK is in as bad a state as the rest of europe.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on April 07, 2011, 05:36:19 PM
http://notesonthefront.typepad.com/politicaleconomy/2011/04/there-is-one-argument-in-the-current-bank-bail-out-debate-that-is-getting-tiresome-it-goes-like-this-if-we-do-some.html (http://notesonthefront.typepad.com/politicaleconomy/2011/04/there-is-one-argument-in-the-current-bank-bail-out-debate-that-is-getting-tiresome-it-goes-like-this-if-we-do-some.html)

Frightening the Children with the Broken-ATM Argument

There is one argument in the current bank bail-out debate that is getting tiresome. It goes like this:

'If we do something the ECB doesn't like they will cut off loans to our banks and the ATMs will dry up by the morning. Therefore, we have no alternative but to do what we are doing.'

This broken-ATM argument comes from the 'frighten the children' stable. It is used to counter any alternative to the current Fianna Fail/Fine Gael/Labour strategy. We can't do a or x or z because the ECB will cut us adrift. This argument limits options and debate, requiring nothing more than assertion. Ultimately, it justifies political inertia.

At its core, this broken-ATM argument requires us to assume that the ECB is irrational. We are told the ECB won't tolerate anything that would result in cutting even one strand of bondholder hair for fear of the contagion it would cause throughout European finance. Then, in the next breath we are told that if we do alternative x, then the ECB will cut off our bank funding.

Imagine what would happen if they did this? Of course, our banks would meltdown but there would be more losers than just us. The first loser would be the ECB itself. It would have to write off billions it loaned to the banks (yes, those assets are backed up by 'assets' – what chance those assets would compensate for the losses). So the ECB loans billions to our banks and then pulls out the rug ensuring that it can never be repaid. Sound rational?

The second set of losers would be those financial institutions – primarily German, French and British banks – exposed to Irish banks. They would realise massive losses which their governments would have to make good. I'm not sure that Nicholas and Angela would be impressed with the ECB's precipitous action.

Another set of losers, and this is all intertwined, is the impact on the banking systems of the peripheral countries. As Karl Whelan points out, the markets would start gambling on which country would be next for an ECB cut-off – sending their financial systems in a tail-spin, multiplying the impact of the Irish bust.

The ECB's actions to date are predicated on preventing contagion, or even the hint of contagion, from seeping out from Ireland into the wider Eurozone. Yet, if the ECB withdrew their funding it would be contagion squared and then squared again. And it wouldn't even take the ECB to go this far. Even the hint that they might do this would be enough to start a chain-reaction. Which is probably why no ECB official as ever averted to this possibility. This is why the markets have not factored in this extreme possibility – because it is so far-fetched (even for the most delusional and irrational investor) that it is not part of the risk-landscape.

Except: in the Irish debate. Only here does the threat of ECB withdrawal get thrown around with abandon. Lucky for us international markets don't pay much heed to our political debates. What might help get the debate back to some semblance of reality would be for a TD to ask the Minister for Finance under what conditions the ECB told the government that they would withdraw liquidity funding for Irish banks. The answer would be instructive.

The broken ATM argument rests on a highly irrational assumption. This is not to say that the new Irish government can tell the ECB to get stuffed. This line of action also has unforseeable risks - and risk is the one thing we are trying to remove.

But between these two extremes there is a range of options and alternative strategies. The Irish room for manoeuvre is limited; but it is not non-existent. It will take hard work, creative work, a bit of risk, a lot of calculation and, most of all, an open and honest dialogue with the public; but there are options. In other words, it will take politics and the art of the possible.

So the next time you hear a new Government Minister, taking over from Fianna Fail, using the broken-ATM argument – just remember: this is not a description of reality. But it may be an admission that the coalition parties didn't have a strategy entering into Government (beyond election rhetoric); have not had time to come up with their own; are just tinkering with the old Government's strategy; and are afraid of where a new strategy might take them if it starts from the wholly reasonable and rational proposition that the state shall not be obliged to honour private debt.

Sometimes it is safer and easier to frighten the children.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on April 07, 2011, 06:18:11 PM
A few months old but this blog article explains why the Germans are pissed off with Ireland. Well worth a read.

http://golemxiv-credo.blogspot.com/2010/11/who-bankrupted-ireland.html (http://golemxiv-credo.blogspot.com/2010/11/who-bankrupted-ireland.html)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on April 08, 2011, 08:21:06 AM
Good article alright- Sobering reading for those defenders of the IFSC model as well
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on April 08, 2011, 10:48:59 AM
Quote from: Declan on April 08, 2011, 08:21:06 AM
Good article alright- Sobering reading for those defenders of the IFSC model as well
I didn't think it was great, a bit short on facts and fairly high on speculation and innuendo.  I don't think the IFSC model has a great deal to do with what german banks were getting up to in any case. 
If they weren't basing themselves in Dublin they'd have been elsewhere, there are plenty of locations where regulations are lax.

It's a bit rich for the german to claim lack of regulation in Ireland caused their banks problems, proper and effective regulation should account for subsidiaries and all potential exposures of the parent bank.
Their problem was greed and shortsightedness in believing that, this time, risk had finally been done away with....
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on April 08, 2011, 11:49:41 AM
QuoteI don't think the IFSC model has a great deal to do with what german banks were getting up to in any case. 
If they weren't basing themselves in Dublin they'd have been elsewhere, there are plenty of locations where regulations are lax

The IFSC model is precisely that - light touch regulation etc, wild west of financial world. It had everything to do with it .

QuoteTheir problem was greed and shortsightedness in believing that, this time, risk had finally been done away with....

Agree but didn't the last paragraph not say that anyway??

I thought the article showed exactly why the Germans shouldn't be whinging about the Irish but should be looking in the mirroe as well.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on April 08, 2011, 02:16:00 PM
Quote from: Declan on April 08, 2011, 11:49:41 AM
QuoteI don't think the IFSC model has a great deal to do with what german banks were getting up to in any case. 
If they weren't basing themselves in Dublin they'd have been elsewhere, there are plenty of locations where regulations are lax

The IFSC model is precisely that - light touch regulation etc, wild west of financial world. It had everything to do with it .

I'm not disagreeing that Dublin wasn't light touch, I'm just saying that there a multitude of places from which exactly the same operations can be and were run from - i hardly think for example that London or NY were shinings light when it came to regulation, and that's without mentioning offshore.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Main Street on April 08, 2011, 03:22:48 PM
Quote from: muppet on April 07, 2011, 06:18:11 PM
A few months old but this blog article explains why the Germans are pissed off with Ireland. Well worth a read.

http://golemxiv-credo.blogspot.com/2010/11/who-bankrupted-ireland.html (http://golemxiv-credo.blogspot.com/2010/11/who-bankrupted-ireland.html)
I found that blog article very interesting.
I read some english language articles about that from a german perspective, a couple of years ago
Afair the pissed off bit was regards the info from the Irish FSA about the status of Depfa before it was bought by Hypo.
I assume the FSA information was blushingly glowing as to the current healthy status of Depfa.
Merkel was reported to be angry when Hypo went belly up, but in the scheme of things, a German would equally be angry if they found out that 2 sugars were put into their coffee instead of one.
You can take it that Merkel was doing the tried and trusted political art of deflection and scapegoating. The German people just as much as the French, do not understand that they are the lender of the last resort for their dodgy banks or do not understand the significance of it.

Afair, the Ormond Quay set up was a dodgy branch of a 'bona fide' German Bank, the manager was suckered into bad deals and went chasing the losses in a demented wild gambling spree.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on April 08, 2011, 03:28:54 PM
McWilliams just tweeted a link to his latest article but when you click on his site you get an interesting message:

http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/ (http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Croí na hÉireann on April 08, 2011, 03:38:35 PM
Quote from: muppet on April 08, 2011, 03:28:54 PM
McWilliams just tweeted a link to his latest article but when you click on his site you get an interesting message:

http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/ (http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/)

It was working grand half an hour ago, the ECB must be closing in on him, it was just a link to here http://www.channel4.com/news/ireland-bank-sector-shake-up-as-bailout-bill-hits-61bn (http://www.channel4.com/news/ireland-bank-sector-shake-up-as-bailout-bill-hits-61bn)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on April 08, 2011, 03:56:46 PM
Quote from: muppet on April 08, 2011, 03:28:54 PM
McWilliams just tweeted a link to his latest article but when you click on his site you get an interesting message:

http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/ (http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/)
I wish I got that message when I logged into my paddypower account some time!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Smokin Joe on April 09, 2011, 07:07:11 AM
Quote from: muppet on April 08, 2011, 03:28:54 PM
McWilliams just tweeted a link to his latest article but when you click on his site you get an interesting message:

http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/ (http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/)

I just did that, and my AV software gave me a virus warning  >:(
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Farrandeelin on April 11, 2011, 09:17:35 PM
The government seem to have given up hope listening to them on the news haven't they. :-\
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Evil Genius on April 12, 2011, 01:14:21 AM
Quote from: muppet on April 07, 2011, 06:18:11 PMA few months old but this blog article explains why the Germans are pissed off with Ireland. Well worth a read.

http://golemxiv-credo.blogspot.com/2010/11/who-bankrupted-ireland.html (http://golemxiv-credo.blogspot.com/2010/11/who-bankrupted-ireland.html)
Interesting article, certainly, with some thought-provoking insights etc.

But I'm not sure he is justified in drawing his central conclusion, thus:
"I can't say and neither can you, if the losses are Irish or German. But we can say, the losses never were, and should not ever be,  yours and mine. We, the people, who were told nothing, were not asked nor consulted, whose laws were either ignored, set aside or re-written, we should not be expected to pay for those losses now."

For when the Republic's Government opened the doors to its nice, shiny new Casino IFSC and said "Come on in" etc , it wasn't just being sociable towards German bankers et al  for the sake of it.

Rather the Government was knowingly colluding in the "Regulation Arbitrage" so attractive to such people and pocketing the 12% Corporation tax etc, thank you very much.

Now of course the ordinary Irish citizen had no idea of the details of what was going on and I genuinely don't want to seem to be sticking the boot in on all such people who must now be extremely fearful for what the future holds.

But in the end, it was crooks like Charlie Haughey and Bertie Ahern etc who were arranging* all this, with the consistent and enthusiiastic endorsement of the Irish electorate at election after election.

And if that electorate is honest with itself, not only did they know that such people are/were out-and-out rogues, but it was precisely their roguery (aka "cute hoordom") which got them elected in the first place.




* - No doubt for a suitable "Arrangement Fee"  for themselves
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: whiskeysteve on April 12, 2011, 01:46:50 AM
Quote from: Evil Genius on April 12, 2011, 01:14:21 AM
Quote from: muppet on April 07, 2011, 06:18:11 PMA few months old but this blog article explains why the Germans are pissed off with Ireland. Well worth a read.

http://golemxiv-credo.blogspot.com/2010/11/who-bankrupted-ireland.html (http://golemxiv-credo.blogspot.com/2010/11/who-bankrupted-ireland.html)
Interesting article, certainly, with some thought-provoking insights etc.

But I'm not sure he is justified in drawing his central conclusion, thus:
"I can't say and neither can you, if the losses are Irish or German. But we can say, the losses never were, and should not ever be,  yours and mine. We, the people, who were told nothing, were not asked nor consulted, whose laws were either ignored, set aside or re-written, we should not be expected to pay for those losses now."

For when the Republic's Government opened the doors to its nice, shiny new Casino IFSC and said "Come on in" etc , it wasn't just being sociable towards German bankers et al  for the sake of it.

Rather the Government was knowingly colluding in the "Regulation Arbitrage" so attractive to such people and pocketing the 12% Corporation tax etc, thank you very much.

Now of course the ordinary Irish citizen had no idea of the details of what was going on and I genuinely don't want to seem to be sticking the boot in on all such people who must now be extremely fearful for what the future holds.

But in the end, it was crooks like Charlie Haughey and Bertie Ahern etc who were arranging* all this, with the consistent and enthusiiastic endorsement of the Irish electorate at election after election.

And if that electorate is honest with itself, not only did they know that such people are/were out-and-out rogues, but it was precisely their roguery (aka "cute hoordom") which got them elected in the first place.




* - No doubt for a suitable "Arrangement Fee"  for themselves

ah come on EG, I think its clear that the blogger is specifically referring to the blanket guarantee for which the people had no say as well you know.

Its an almighty stretch from arguing that the electorate supported berties chicanery to suggesting that were was an element of endorsement from the people for the blanket guarantee that has doomed Ireland to penuary.

His central conclusion is correct.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Evil Genius on April 12, 2011, 01:58:13 AM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on April 12, 2011, 01:46:50 AM
Quote from: Evil Genius on April 12, 2011, 01:14:21 AM
Quote from: muppet on April 07, 2011, 06:18:11 PMA few months old but this blog article explains why the Germans are pissed off with Ireland. Well worth a read.

http://golemxiv-credo.blogspot.com/2010/11/who-bankrupted-ireland.html (http://golemxiv-credo.blogspot.com/2010/11/who-bankrupted-ireland.html)
Interesting article, certainly, with some thought-provoking insights etc.

But I'm not sure he is justified in drawing his central conclusion, thus:
"I can't say and neither can you, if the losses are Irish or German. But we can say, the losses never were, and should not ever be,  yours and mine. We, the people, who were told nothing, were not asked nor consulted, whose laws were either ignored, set aside or re-written, we should not be expected to pay for those losses now."

For when the Republic's Government opened the doors to its nice, shiny new Casino IFSC and said "Come on in" etc , it wasn't just being sociable towards German bankers et al  for the sake of it.

Rather the Government was knowingly colluding in the "Regulation Arbitrage" so attractive to such people and pocketing the 12% Corporation tax etc, thank you very much.

Now of course the ordinary Irish citizen had no idea of the details of what was going on and I genuinely don't want to seem to be sticking the boot in on all such people who must now be extremely fearful for what the future holds.

But in the end, it was crooks like Charlie Haughey and Bertie Ahern etc who were arranging* all this, with the consistent and enthusiiastic endorsement of the Irish electorate at election after election.

And if that electorate is honest with itself, not only did they know that such people are/were out-and-out rogues, but it was precisely their roguery (aka "cute hoordom") which got them elected in the first place.




* - No doubt for a suitable "Arrangement Fee"  for themselves

ah come on EG, I think its clear that the blogger is specifically referring to the blanket guarantee for which the people had no say as well you know.

Its an almighty stretch from arguing that the electorate supported berties chicanery to suggesting that were was an element of endorsement from the people for the blanket guarantee that has doomed Ireland to penuary.

His central conclusion is correct.
Not that "almighty" a stretch, imo.

For who do you think it was who benefited from the blanket guarantee etc?

Answer: Bertie and Biffo etc, plus the Friends of Bertie and Biffo etc.

Or did you honestly think that when the s h i t evntually hit the fan, as it inevitably had to, that they and their cronies would get covered in it?

Or, to put it another way, when you vote for someone on the basis of his ability to swindle others out of their money etc, should you really be surprised when they turn round and start swindling money out of you?  :o
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: whiskeysteve on April 12, 2011, 09:04:26 AM
Bear in mind the conclusion you specifically addressed and refuted:

"I can't say and neither can you, if the losses are Irish or German. But we can say, the losses never were, and should not ever be,  yours and mine. We, the people, who were told nothing, were not asked nor consulted, whose laws were either ignored, set aside or re-written, we should not be expected to pay for those losses now."

Now, are you asking me to believe that the Irish electorate, in May of 2007, should have forseen as large scale a disaster as a ~250bn bill placed on the country as is now apparent and further to that are you asking me to believe that by their support for Bertie at that time, the electorate (to some degree) endorsed the guarantee for such losses?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on April 12, 2011, 10:16:33 AM
Quote from: Evil Genius on April 12, 2011, 01:58:13 AMnot that almighty" a stretch, imo.

For who do you think it was who benefited from the blanket guarantee etc?

Answer: Bertie and Biffo etc, plus the Friends of Bertie and Biffo etc.

Or did you honestly think that when the s h i t evntually hit the fan, as it inevitably had to, that they and their cronies would get covered in it?

Or, to put it another way, when you vote for someone on the basis of his ability to swindle others out of their money etc, should you really be surprised when they turn round and start swindling money out of you?  :o
Well if their friends are german, french and UK banks, then yes you are correct - i think this time you're miles off the mark though.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Evil Genius on April 12, 2011, 04:40:09 PM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on April 12, 2011, 09:04:26 AM
Bear in mind the conclusion you specifically addressed and refuted:

"I can't say and neither can you, if the losses are Irish or German. But we can say, the losses never were, and should not ever be,  yours and mine. We, the people, who were told nothing, were not asked nor consulted, whose laws were either ignored, set aside or re-written, we should not be expected to pay for those losses now."

Now, are you asking me to believe that the Irish electorate, in May of 2007, should have forseen as large scale a disaster as a ~250bn bill placed on the country as is now apparent and further to that are you asking me to believe that by their support for Bertie at that time, the electorate (to some degree) endorsed the guarantee for such losses?
To answer your question (bold), no, not at all.

My point is that when you cast your vote in an election, you are entrusting your chosen representatives to handle such matters on your behalf, in a diligent, responsible and competent manner (i.e. following the qualities which they, as candidates, purported to uphold).

But if you know (or should know) that those representatives are fundamentally untrustworthy and when push comes to shove, liable to put their owm personal interests ahead of yours, then it's a bit late to cry "Foul!"

Or to put it another way, if you buy a load of cheap deisel from a dodgy source, at an unfeasibly cheap price, you can't complain when your engine suddenly packs up.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Evil Genius on April 12, 2011, 05:09:06 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on April 12, 2011, 10:16:33 AM
Quote from: Evil Genius on April 12, 2011, 01:58:13 AMnot that almighty" a stretch, imo.

For who do you think it was who benefited from the blanket guarantee etc?

Answer: Bertie and Biffo etc, plus the Friends of Bertie and Biffo etc.
Or did you honestly think that when the s h i t evntually hit the fan, as it inevitably had to, that they and their cronies would get covered in it?

Or, to put it another way, when you vote for someone on the basis of his ability to swindle others out of their money etc, should you really be surprised when they turn round and start swindling money out of you?  :o
Well if their friends are german, french and UK banks, then yes you are correct - i think this time you're miles off the mark though.
Not what I'm saying (bold). The only rational explanation I can conceive for the way Biffo and Co cravenly shifted responsibility for the bank debts etc from the bondholders to the taxpayers was in order to protect certain of those bondholders.
And the only reason they will have done that is because those certain bondholders are/were their "friends".
And I think we all iknow why the politicians and those certain bondholders were so friendly, don't we?

Of course, there might still be an excuse for the electorate claiming that they weren't to know what was going on at these secretive Lunches in 5 Star Hotels etc.

But the graft and corruption which has characterised successive recent Irish Governments was not confined solely to matters of high finance.

In the private sector it pervaded the world of construction, planning and development etc, in the public sector it encompassed govenrment spending, subsidy and employment etc.

And no voter can reasonably claim to have been unaware of all the dodgy dealing which was going on there, can he?

As I say, if you elect someone on the basis that he's a cute hoor to be dealing with the Germans, French and Brits etc, don't be surprised when (not if) he ends up acting the cute hoor with you.

Or does anyone really believe eg that Charlie Haughy won it all on the horses , or that Bertie Ahern didn't have a bank account?

There's a saying about "sipping with the Devil" and "long spoons" which comes to mind...
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on April 13, 2011, 02:21:28 PM
Here's what our European masters think of us:

Irish taxpayers 'should foot bank bill'

Irish taxpayers should not complain about having to bailout the country's crisis-hit banks and, in future, regulation should be steered at a European level, according to ECB executive board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi.

In an opinion piece in today's Financial Times,  Mr Bini Smaghi said Ireland's taxpayers should foot the bill as they are the ones that benefitted during the pre-crisis boom years and elected the governments that regulated the banks as the problems built.

"The principle of 'no taxation without representation' should work both ways. If taxpayers have the right to share in decision-making, they must also accept the consequences," Mr Bini Smaghi wrote.

"As long as the accountability of supervisors to taxpayers is primarily a national affair ... then there is a high risk that taxpayers will foot most of the bill. They should not complain when it actually happens."

Before taking power earlier this year, the new government said it wanted to restructure the debt of the country's battered banks so that bondholders accepted losses on their loans.

The ECB has been strongly against the idea, as it fears it could spark a chain reaction in the banking system and trigger a new Lehman Brothers-style crisis.

Mr Bini Smaghi said that while in theory, shareholders, managers and bondholders should bear the costs of a bank being restructured, in an open system like the euro zone's such problems were never black and white as they could pose systemic risks.

The situation where banks are based in one country but have subsidiaries carrying risks in another also creates the danger that they are not properly controlled by anyone.

Ireland's problems showed pure national regulation was flawed and in future needed to be steered at a euro zone level or wider, he said.

"Ultimately this would mean the integration of independent prudential supervision at the European, or at least euro area, level - to match the way burdens are shared when a systemic crisis strikes. Such a move may seem politically unpalatable, as taxpayers around the euro zone fear having to bail out the banks in other countries. But these taxpayers would at least have the assurance that banks in different countries would henceforth be subject
to uniform and independent supervision," Mr Bini Smaghi said.

Talk about a straw man argument but it just shows the opinions out there

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on April 13, 2011, 04:16:20 PM
Quote from: Evil Genius on April 12, 2011, 05:09:06 PMWell if their friends are german, french and UK banks, then yes you are correct - i think this time you're miles off the mark though.
Not what I'm saying (bold). The only rational explanation I can conceive for the way Biffo and Co cravenly shifted responsibility for the bank debts etc from the bondholders to the taxpayers was in order to protect certain of those bondholders.
And the only reason they will have done that is because those certain bondholders are/were their "friends".
And I think we all iknow why the politicians and those certain bondholders were so friendly, don't we?
[/quote]
I still think you're wrong on this one, i think that initially the genesis of the idea was that this was the cheapest way of helping out their buddies in anglo (both borrowers and bankers), but I don't think they considered for a minute that they might have to pay up on these promises.

I think they actually believed that the banks were experiencing a short term liquidity problem, which a state guarantee would overcome and that in 6 months or a year's time, everything would be rosy in the garden again, property prices would have risen to their real values and the tiger would be roaring louder than ever.

In a way therefore, maybe you are right, maybe the electorate should have to bear the brunt of the losses for electing such economically inept people into power.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on April 13, 2011, 04:24:03 PM
Quote from: Declan on April 13, 2011, 02:21:28 PM
Here's what our European masters think of us:

Irish taxpayers 'should foot bank bill'

Irish taxpayers should not complain about having to bailout the country's crisis-hit banks and, in future, regulation should be steered at a European level, according to ECB executive board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi.

In an opinion piece in today's Financial Times,  Mr Bini Smaghi said Ireland's taxpayers should foot the bill as they are the ones that benefitted during the pre-crisis boom years and elected the governments that regulated the banks as the problems built.

"The principle of 'no taxation without representation' should work both ways. If taxpayers have the right to share in decision-making, they must also accept the consequences," Mr Bini Smaghi wrote.

"As long as the accountability of supervisors to taxpayers is primarily a national affair ... then there is a high risk that taxpayers will foot most of the bill. They should not complain when it actually happens."

Surely everything he has written similarily applies to the people of the countries whose banks invested in Irish bank bonds?

What really annoys me about this and similar articles is the hypocrisy, yes Ireland fcuked up, but no more so than the eejits who lent us money because they believed the premium interest rate on offer was sufficient with regards to the risks being taken.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on April 13, 2011, 11:59:32 PM
Quote from: Declan on April 13, 2011, 02:21:28 PM
Here's what our European masters think of us:

Irish taxpayers 'should foot bank bill'

Irish taxpayers should not complain about having to bailout the country's crisis-hit banks and, in future, regulation should be steered at a European level, according to ECB executive board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi.

In an opinion piece in today's Financial Times,  Mr Bini Smaghi said Ireland's taxpayers should foot the bill as they are the ones that benefitted during the pre-crisis boom years and elected the governments that regulated the banks as the problems built.

"The principle of 'no taxation without representation' should work both ways. If taxpayers have the right to share in decision-making, they must also accept the consequences," Mr Bini Smaghi wrote.

"As long as the accountability of supervisors to taxpayers is primarily a national affair ... then there is a high risk that taxpayers will foot most of the bill. They should not complain when it actually happens."

Before taking power earlier this year, the new government said it wanted to restructure the debt of the country's battered banks so that bondholders accepted losses on their loans.

The ECB has been strongly against the idea, as it fears it could spark a chain reaction in the banking system and trigger a new Lehman Brothers-style crisis.

Mr Bini Smaghi said that while in theory, shareholders, managers and bondholders should bear the costs of a bank being restructured, in an open system like the euro zone's such problems were never black and white as they could pose systemic risks.

The situation where banks are based in one country but have subsidiaries carrying risks in another also creates the danger that they are not properly controlled by anyone.

Ireland's problems showed pure national regulation was flawed and in future needed to be steered at a euro zone level or wider, he said.

"Ultimately this would mean the integration of independent prudential supervision at the European, or at least euro area, level - to match the way burdens are shared when a systemic crisis strikes. Such a move may seem politically unpalatable, as taxpayers around the euro zone fear having to bail out the banks in other countries. But these taxpayers would at least have the assurance that banks in different countries would henceforth be subject
to uniform and independent supervision," Mr Bini Smaghi said.

Talk about a straw man argument but it just shows the opinions out there

I agree with him. Until we have had the opportunity to elect our new masters in the EU we should pay no taxes.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Evil Genius on April 14, 2011, 06:50:27 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on April 13, 2011, 04:16:20 PMI still think you're wrong on this one, i think that initially the genesis of the idea was that this was the cheapest way of helping out their buddies in anglo (both borrowers and bankers), but I don't think they considered for a minute that they might have to pay up on these promises.

I think they actually believed that the banks were experiencing a short term liquidity problem, which a state guarantee would overcome and that in 6 months or a year's time, everything would be rosy in the garden again, property prices would have risen to their real values and the tiger would be roaring louder than ever.

In a way therefore, maybe you are right, maybe the electorate should have to bear the brunt of the losses for electing such economically inept people into power.
Your generosity of spirit in ascribing the politicians' various failings to naivety, inexperience and ineptitude etc does you credit.

But at the risk of being dubbed a tired old cynic, I simply cannot believe that there weren't brown envelopes and numbered Swiss Bank Accounts etc somewhere in the mix.

Or do you imagine that Bertie, Brian and Biffo etc were bestowing their favours upon the Bankers, Brokers and Bondholders for free?  :o
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Denn Forever on April 15, 2011, 08:56:05 AM
We need to tighten our belt more.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/apr/15/irish-credit-rating-cut

The euro dropped against the dollar after credit ratings agency Moody's delivered another negative verdict on Ireland on Friday morning.

Moody's cut Ireland's rating by two notches to Baa3 and left the outlook negative. The agency said the country may need to take further austerity measures to meet its fiscal goals and that its financial position could suffer because of higher European Central Bank interest rates.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on April 15, 2011, 09:20:56 AM
http://www.economist.com/node/18560535?fsrc=scn/tw/te/ar/followthemoney (http://www.economist.com/node/18560535?fsrc=scn/tw/te/ar/followthemoney)

Europe's banks
Follow the money
Is Germany bailing out euro-area countries to save its own banks?
Apr 14th 2011 | BERLIN | from the print edition

IF THE euro zone were an old-fashioned family, Germany would be the stern father telling his wayward children to go to bed early and not to spend all their pocket money at once. It has resisted efforts to ease the conditions attached to the bail-outs of Greece and Ireland, and is insisting that Portugal, which started negotiations on a bail-out this week, also gets licked into shape. (The European Central Bank, too, has a ring of the stern German in its insistence that banks in weaker euro-zone countries, Ireland's in particular, pay back their debts in full.) That seems fair: Germany is putting more money at risk in funding the errant trio than any other country. But some observers argue that the real bail-out is of Germany's own banks.

That depends, in part, on the assumptions you make about what might happen if one of the peripheral countries were to default. Start with government debt. Germany's two biggest banks, Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank, have a surprisingly low direct exposure to Greek, Irish and Portuguese governments. They held less than €6 billion ($8.7 billion) in government debt from the three bail-out recipients at the end of last year, according to company disclosures. But the total exposure of the German banking system is a lot larger, at almost €27 billion.

This suggests that the bulk of these sovereign-debt holdings are buried in small, not very savvy German banks. Germany's publicly owned Landesbanken would fit that bill nicely. They are already beset by low profitability, so cannot easily earn enough to offset losses, and their capital cushions are thin and partly composed of hybrid debt that under new rules will soon no longer count as capital. Many will have to raise equity to pass the next round of European stress tests. Among the first out of the gate is NordLB, which announced plans this week to convert hybrid capital into equity.

Sovereign defaults would also harm Hypo Real Estate, a bust German property and public-finance bank that is now owned by the state. In July last year it said it was owed almost €8 billion by the Greek government and €10 billion by Ireland.

Sovereign exposures nevertheless look manageable when set against total assets in the German banking system of some €2.5 trillion. Most of the burden of a peripheral default would fall on banks in the defaulting countries themselves. A deep home bias has made many of them the largest holders of their own governments' debt. Calculations by the Bank of England on losses that would arise from haircuts to Greek, Irish, Portuguese and Spanish debt suggests that a 50% haircut would wipe out 70% of the equity in Greek banks, almost half of it in Portuguese and Spanish banks and about 10% of the equity in German and French banks.

That spells trouble of a different kind. Sovereign defaults would entail much more than just a haircut on German banks' government-bond exposures. It could easily lead to a slew of bank defaults—and corporate ones, too. German banks are owed twice as much by banks in the three bailed-out countries as they are by governments. Once corporate loans and other exposures are included, Germany's vulnerability is clear: its banks are owed some €230 billion. These numbers would ratchet up further were Spain to default. German banks have an exposure to Spain that is about three-quarters as great as it is to Portugal, Greece and Ireland combined.

Not all of these debts would be affected by a sovereign default, let alone be wiped out. Derivatives exposures are already marked to market, for example. But compared with the potential costs of full-blown default, the amounts that Germany and other countries are likely to put into the three bail-out packages look like excellent value (see chart). The rescuers need not be quite so sanctimonious.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Main Street on April 15, 2011, 09:41:49 AM
Here's the chart from that Economist article

(http://media.economist.com/images/images-magazine/2011/04/16/fn/20110416_fnc532.gif)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on April 15, 2011, 09:50:23 AM
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d5f9926c-61ca-11e0-88f7-00144feab49a.html#ixzz1Ja103xf2


EU regulators outline stricter stress tests
By Patrick Jenkins in London

Published: April 8 2011 12:01 | Last updated: April 8 2011 16:55

European banking regulators have set up a dispute with German authorities, pressing ahead with a tight definition of capital for planned stress tests and making it more likely that Germany's state-owned Landesbanken will fail.
The European Banking Authority on Friday disclosed that it had set a 5 per cent core tier one capital ratio as the passmark for the stress tests in which 90 banks would take part.

Five new banks – Ireland's Irish Life & Permanent, Norway's DNB Nor, Denmark's Nykredit, Slovenia's Nova KBM and Austria's Oesterreichische Volksbank – will be tested this year. The 2010 exercise involved 91 banks, but several of those, particularly Spanish savings banks have since merged.

Last year's exercise, designed to restore market confidence in the health of Europe's banks, proved farcical, with the Irish banking system collapsing only four months after the country's banks passed the test.

EBA stress test predictions
● Minimum 5 per cent core tier one capital under stressed scenario

● 0.75 per cent rise in interest rates on European sovereign bonds

● 1.25 percentage point impact on short-term bank financing costs

● 0.5 per cent fall in eurozone gross domestic product in 2011

● 15 per cent fall in European stockmarkets

● No losses on sovereign bonds held to maturity

● Results to be announced in June
The EBA insists this year's test, which will be conducted over the next month with the results to be published in June, is tougher, with more pessimistic projections of gross domestic product growth and property market prices. However, critics point out that several measures are more benign, and that the parameters are too narrowly focused on the issue of eurozone sovereign debt.

There is also a repeat of last year's refusal to admit the possibility of a sovereign debt default, even though Portugal has just become the third eurozone country, after Greece and Ireland, to appeal for bail-out funding. The EBA has spent the past three weeks battling with national regulators, particularly in Germany, over the definition of core tier one capital.
The EBA has concluded that the consistent pan-European definition should comprise equity and little else cannot allow the inclusion of so-called silent participations, instruments typically held by German regional governments as part of the capital structure of Landesbanken. The authority believes the banks are legally obliged to participate, but they cannot be forced to allow publication of the results.

Two Landesbanken – Hannover's NordLB and Frankfurt's Helaba – will be the hardest hit, though NordLB is negotiating a plan to convert some of the state's silent participations into full-blown equity.

The Bundesbank issued a barbed response to the EBA announcement, saying it "would have welcomed it if the EBA had respected the relevant law when deciding on the definition of capital deemed as valid for the stress tests."
Andrea Enria, the EBA's chairman, is keen that the stress tests are followed through, with national regulators forcing banks that fail or nearly fail to come up with credible plans to raise capital or otherwise boost capital ratios via restructuring by the end of the year.

The cut-off point for banks' capital positions will be the end of April, so recently announced capital-raisings by Italy's Intesa and Germany's Commerzbank will not count towards the stress test result, although there will be added disclosure clarifying post-April capital raising plans.

Mr Enria believes that the 2011 public stress test exercise may be the last one of its kind, given the US has now switched to a behind-closed-doors process. However, he is keen to use the EBA as a vehicle to prompt far greater disclosure by banks on an ongoing basis of their composition of capital and assets.

The results of the test will be published in June after a period of peer review by national regulators.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on April 15, 2011, 11:50:14 AM
Quote from: Denn Forever on April 15, 2011, 08:56:05 AM
We need to tighten our belt more.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/apr/15/irish-credit-rating-cut

The euro dropped against the dollar after credit ratings agency Moody's delivered another negative verdict on Ireland on Friday morning.

Moody's cut Ireland's rating by two notches to Baa3 and left the outlook negative. The agency said the country may need to take further austerity measures to meet its fiscal goals and that its financial position could suffer because of higher European Central Bank interest rates.
I won't say that the headline stating that the drop in the euro against the dollar is related to a report on ireland by moodys is absolute rubbish, but it most likely is.  Having been watching this market very closely for a while now (i've some large dollar payments to make) the current rate is pretty much what it's been trading at since last thursday and to be honest it has been remarkably steady in that time. 
In fact yesterday the rate hit 1.439 for a while, so the current rate of 1.445 is well up on that, although to be honest 0.5c either way is nothing in this volatile market and it'd be the rare day that it doesn't move by at least that amount, normally there's no real reason for it.

That said, we are going to have to have implement fairly stringent cuts and increase taxes further and soon.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on April 15, 2011, 12:10:24 PM
On a separate note BBall - I'm looking to buy dollars in preparation for a trip later in the summer and was hanging on till it went a bit higher - Will it stay mid 40s do you reckon ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on April 15, 2011, 02:36:38 PM
Impossible to know Declan, maybe buy some now just in case.  I'm planning to bite the bullet and pay a good portion of what I owe this evening, just as soon as america opens for business (west coast).
It could well go higher, it was 1.60 3yrs ago, but it has also hit 1.19 within the last year, it's at the upper end of its average over the past few years at the minute, so you takes your chances etc...
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: orangeman on April 15, 2011, 02:54:16 PM
Is this a signifcant ruling ?


Anglo Irish Bank Golden Circle deal 'improper' - judge A High Court judge in Belfast has said a controversial deal by Anglo Irish Bank appears to be "improper and unlawful".

Mr Justice Deeny was referring to the "Golden Circle" transaction where the bank loaned 10 of its clients 451m euros which they then used to buy shares in the bank.

The transaction was a share-support scheme, designed to prevent a large number of shares being sold on the open market which would have depressed the bank's value.

Anglo lent the money on a non-recourse basis, meaning that if the borrowers could not repay the bank, would simply take back the shares.

The judge made his remarks in the course of judgement concerning a dispute between Anglo and a firm controlled by Belfast businessman Peter Curistan.

Mr Curistan's firm, Marcus Ward Ltd, has been granted an injunction to prevent the bank winding up the company over an alleged £10m debt.

Marcus Ward leases two units in the Odyssey Pavillion in east Belfast.

Another of Mr Curistan's firms, Sheridan Millenium Ltd (SML), had a long lease on the whole of the Pavilion.

The case focused on Anglo's behaviour when attempts were being made to sell the Pavillion lease in 2009.

At that time SML owed Anglo around £80m and the lease was worth around £43m.

SML needed to find a buyer who would take on the Anglo debt.

It was Mr Curistan's case that the bank effectively acted as an agent in the sale process and thus owed his companies a duty of care.

The bank has admitted that it did introduce potential buyers from its customer base.

On this basis the judge concluded that there is "at least an arguable case" that the bank was under a duty of care.

Preferred bidder

The bank's preferred bidder was the Belfast firm PBN.

It is owned by Paddy Kearney and Neil Adair. Mr Adair is the former manager of Anglo's operation in Northern Ireland.

There was another bidder, referred to only as "Confidential Five".

The judge said this firm showed "persistent interest" in the deal even after they were initially told they were unsuccessful.

At one point "Confidential Five" was even offering slightly more than PBN.

"Confidential Five" was also offering that £15m of the Anglo loan would be on a recourse basis whereas the PBN bid was entirely non-recourse.

In effect that meant if PBN took over the Pavillion lease and the business failed Anglo would only take back the lease rather than pursuing the company for any of the loan.

Encouraged by the bank, Mr Curistan opted for the PBN bid. However, in November 2009 the bank decided not to go ahead with the PBN deal.

There is a dispute between the parties about why the bank took this course of action.

However, the judge referred to an internal Anglo email from December 2009.

In that email it was stated that the bank did not want to make a non-recourse loan to PBN and Paddy Kearney because it had become public that Mr Kearney was part of the "Golden Circle".

The judge refers to the Golden Circle transaction as "a prima facie improper and unlawful proceeding".

The judge agreed that there was "a clearly arguable case" that the exposure of the Golden Circle was the real reason for the deal falling through.

Mr Curistan's lawyer argued that Anglo had been in breach of a duty of care by not disclosing that Mr Kearney was "party to this improper arrangement."

He added that it was arguable that if Mr Curistan had known about Mr Kearney's part in the Golden Circle they would have taken the offer from "Confidential Five."

The judge granted Mr Curistan's company an injunction preventing a winding-up order on the basis that there is "a genuine and substantial dispute."

Those matters of dispute are now likely to be the subject of further legal proceedings.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on April 15, 2011, 03:13:19 PM
It's significant for Curistan, but I don't think there should be any repercussions beyone that.  They really were some shower though....
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on April 17, 2011, 12:35:12 PM
http://www.independent.ie/business/european/second-rise-likely-in-june-as-oil-costs-boost-inflation-2621432.html (http://www.independent.ie/business/european/second-rise-likely-in-june-as-oil-costs-boost-inflation-2621432.html)

Another interest rate rise on the way sooner than expected. Trichet is really going to stick the boot in.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on April 17, 2011, 01:12:33 PM
Quote from: muppet on April 17, 2011, 12:35:12 PM
http://www.independent.ie/business/european/second-rise-likely-in-june-as-oil-costs-boost-inflation-2621432.html (http://www.independent.ie/business/european/second-rise-likely-in-june-as-oil-costs-boost-inflation-2621432.html)

Another interest rate rise on the way sooner than expected. Trichet is really going to stick the boot in.
wouldn't say it's sooner than expected, May was a possibility given the last comments and we have all known that these have been coming for a long time.  Most commentators expected at least 4 0.25% increases by year end.  That'll be the second.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on April 17, 2011, 01:13:57 PM
QuoteMr Justice Deeny was referring to the "Golden Circle" transaction where the bank loaned 10 of its clients 451m euros which they then used to buy shares in the bank.

I'm no lawyer so the usual caveats apply:

http://www.irishstatutebook.ie/1963/en/act/pub/0033/sec0060.html (http://www.irishstatutebook.ie/1963/en/act/pub/0033/sec0060.html)

60.—(1) Subject to subsections (2), (12) and (13), it shall not be lawful for a company to give, whether directly or indirectly, and whether by means of a loan, guarantee, the provision of security or otherwise, any financial assistance for the purpose of or in connection with a purchase or subscription made or to be made by any person of or for any shares in the company, or, where the company is a subsidiary company, in its holding company.

(Subsections (2), (12) & (13) are on the link above but imho refer to eceptions in the event of (2) a special resolution of the company, (12) dividends & (13) bone fide past present employee schemes or if the lending is part of the ordinary business of the company- Is this the get-out loop-hole?


Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Canalman on April 18, 2011, 11:03:01 AM
Hit the nail on the head there Bogball XV. NAMA's stock of property is p**s poor by and large. Poorly located and badly built where not poorly located. Alot of shoebox apartments which will not cut the mustard in today's market, flimsy walls, poor soundproofing, potential pyrite problems, poor management companies, no developer to give warranties etc etc. Not to mention being exposed to 3/4 winters.

Better off bulldozing alot of it imo.
Title: Moody's cuts Irish banks to junk
Post by: ludermor on April 18, 2011, 01:00:45 PM
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/0418/breaking9.html?via=mr

This might be a good thing, there is serious money in scrap &  recycling these days.
Title: Re: Moody's cuts Irish banks to junk
Post by: Evil Genius on April 18, 2011, 01:09:29 PM
Quote from: ludermor on April 18, 2011, 01:00:45 PM
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/0418/breaking9.html?via=mr

This might be a good thing, there is serious money in scrap &  recycling these days.
Aye, but there's danger in that business, too:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftFfQh9HrOs
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on April 18, 2011, 01:34:17 PM
Quote from: Canalman on April 18, 2011, 11:03:01 AM
Hit the nail on the head there Bogball XV. NAMA's stock of property is p**s poor by and large. Poorly located and badly built where not poorly located. Alot of shoebox apartments which will not cut the mustard in today's market, flimsy walls, poor soundproofing, potential pyrite problems, poor management companies, no developer to give warranties etc etc. Not to mention being exposed to 3/4 winters.

Better off bulldozing alot of it imo.

Agreed. The Construction Industry Federation should be forced to live in some of the shite that they built. Particularly the pyrite properties.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on April 18, 2011, 01:57:27 PM
ICTU (David Begg) wants Bank debt restructured:

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0417/economy.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0417/economy.html)

Moody's cuts all Irish banks to junk status:

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0418/rating-business.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0418/rating-business.html)

Those calling on the new Government to default might get their wish soon enough. There is no hope of anyone putting money into junk status banks. There is no hope of them making money in an economy that they themselves are strangling. They have to de-leverage by €500m a week until 2015. That is they have to reduce their loan book by that amount. To achieve that there is little chance of lending of any sort which means, for example, businesses that require overdraft facilities or other forms of credit to trade might find themselves losing access to finance. There will hardly be a rise in new mortgages, especially with interest rate rises, which will leave house prices falling. We are two years into NAMAs plan and there is no sign of anything other than more debt for the taxpayer.

The Government cannot announce that they are planning anything drastic or it all collapses immediately. But we should pray that behind the scenes they are playing some sort of hardball.

ICTU have some nerve though lecturing on the bank debt. Of the €85bn bailout, only (!) €35bn was for the wasters in the banks. The other €50bn (!!!) was to bailout public spending. Think about that. That is exactly what David Begg is distracting us from.

Begg blames the reckless banks for the mess and in the above article he now blames the ECB. That is a popular statement these days. However it takes some cheek considering he was a Director of the Irish Central Bank from 1995 (note the Irish Central Bank is a member of the ECB) and the head of the Central Bank risk committee is one Des Geraghty former head of SIPTU. ICTU has some nerve.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Rossfan on April 18, 2011, 03:43:29 PM
Quote from: muppet on April 18, 2011, 01:57:27 PM
.

ICTU have some nerve though lecturing on the bank debt. Of the €85bn bailout, only (!) €35bn was for the wasters in the banks. The other €50bn (!!!) was to bailout public spending. Think about that..

It's to pay the pensioners, the sick , the unemployed ,the firemen , gardai , nurses , teachers etc etc etc etc for three years.
If you want another famine and the closure of the remaining businesses in the Country Muppet ... grand sure what matter once you can do a bit of Union bashing.

The €35Bn is on top of the €40bn NAMA  not to mention the €200Bn or so that ECB and Iriish Central Banks have put into the Irish Banks.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on April 18, 2011, 03:47:46 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on April 18, 2011, 03:43:29 PM
Quote from: muppet on April 18, 2011, 01:57:27 PM
.

ICTU have some nerve though lecturing on the bank debt. Of the €85bn bailout, only (!) €35bn was for the wasters in the banks. The other €50bn (!!!) was to bailout public spending. Think about that..

It's to pay the pensioners, the sick , the unemployed ,the firemen , gardai , nurses , teachers etc etc etc etc for three years.
If you want another famine and the closure of the remaining businesses in the Country Muppet ... grand sure what matter once you can do a bit of Union bashing.

The €35Bn is on top of the €40bn NAMA  not to mention the €200Bn or so that ECB and Iriish Central Banks have put into the Irish Banks.

Rossfan I am pointing out the spectacular hypocrisy that's all.

If the banks started lecturing on the public debt I would feel the same way.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Rossfan on April 18, 2011, 03:49:41 PM
It wasnt "The Unions" who borrowed trillions to force up the price of property so that rich gamblers could make a fortune. Then of course when it all went wrong .... it became the Govt/Taxpayers problem.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on April 18, 2011, 03:54:24 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on April 18, 2011, 03:49:41 PM
It wasnt "The Unions" who borrowed trillions to force up the price of property so that rich gamblers could make a fortune. Then of course when it all went wrong .... it became the Govt/Taxpayers problem.

'It all went wrong' in two areas:

1 the banks
2 public spending

The bailout was for both. Both sectors are responsible for jointly bankrupting us and yes the last Government was the common denominator along with certain public servants (Financial Regulator, Central Banks, Dept. of Finance etc).

But Begg (and to a lesser extent Geraghy) sits on both sides as well.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on April 18, 2011, 04:00:49 PM
It wasnt public spending as much as FF freakonomics that was the problem. FF based its tax policy on transactional taxes which collapsed when the boom went tits up.

I think Begg is entitled to ask questions about the debt. Under the current terms it is just not sustainable.
The FF regime turned private bank debt into public debt.

There were many at fault over the boom and Begg at the CB would be way down the list. The bank auditors are still being paid millions, for example. Without the bank albatross the debt situation would be manageable. If you stop paying teachers etc the economy vapourises.

" The biggest regulatory holes in the case of RBS were both the shortage of equity and the absence of a credible bail-in system". Same for the banks here. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Main Street on April 18, 2011, 08:10:17 PM
Kenny spin as reported on rte.ie
'Mr Kenny said that Ireland was grateful to receive the British loan and Mr Cameron was very supportive of the Irish position in Europe. However, the Taoiseach said that Britain's €3bn contribution to Ireland's bailout was not discussed in detail today'.

No thanks Kenny.
Kenny is grateful to be regarded as Europe's current biggest donkey, expressing thanks on behalf of a nation for a loan to the Irish State to pay off some private debt to UK banks. Does that gobshite Kenny not realise who is doing who the favour here?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on April 18, 2011, 08:17:37 PM
Quote from: Main Street on April 18, 2011, 08:10:17 PM
Kenny spin as reported on rte.ie
'Mr Kenny said that Ireland was grateful to receive the British loan and Mr Cameron was very supportive of the Irish position in Europe. However, the Taoiseach said that Britain's €3bn contribution to Ireland's bailout was not discussed in detail today'.

No thanks Kenny.
Kenny is grateful to be regarded as Europe's current biggest donkey, expressing thanks on behalf of a nation for a loan to the Irish State to pay off some private debt to UK banks. Does that gobshite Kenny not realise who is doing who the favour here?

I'm sure he understands perfectly.

Why would we tell those who lent us the money to piss off, until we actually really mean it?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on April 18, 2011, 08:22:45 PM
Portugal 10 yr bond rises to 9.08%
Ireland 10 year bond rise to 9.75%
Greek 10 year bonds rise to 14.55%

That is what the markets think of the bailed or almost bailed out economies.

Spain 10 yr bonds jump to 5.55% today.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Main Street on April 18, 2011, 08:36:57 PM
Quote from: muppet on April 18, 2011, 08:17:37 PM
I'm sure he understands perfectly.
Why would we tell those who lent us the money to piss off, until we actually really mean it?
If that quisling understood perfectly and understood/accepted the EU program then why would he be be going around the various heads of state, saying (on behalf of the thick Irish)  thank you very much kind sir.
Telling them to piss off is not the issue, just where is the basic understanding of who is doing who the favour here?


Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on April 18, 2011, 09:29:39 PM
Quote from: Main Street on April 18, 2011, 08:36:57 PM
Quote from: muppet on April 18, 2011, 08:17:37 PM
I'm sure he understands perfectly.
Why would we tell those who lent us the money to piss off, until we actually really mean it?
If that quisling understood perfectly and understood/accepted the EU program then why would he be be going around the various heads of state, saying (on behalf of the thick Irish)  thank you very much kind sir.
Telling them to piss off is not the issue, just where is the basic understanding of who is doing who the favour here?

We are in no position to be obstreperous. Being belligerent with Cameron or whoever, just for the sake of it, will hardly work.

Patience though............it will all go up in smoke including the RBS debt.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on April 18, 2011, 09:44:42 PM
Quote from: muppet on April 18, 2011, 08:22:45 PM
Portugal 10 yr bond rises to 9.08%
Ireland 10 year bond rise to 9.75%
Greek 10 year bonds rise to 14.55%

That is what the markets think of the bailed or almost bailed out economies.

Spain 10 yr bonds jump to 5.55% today.
the FT says the Germans are discussing a haircut on Greek debt. That would just open the floodgates.
An admission that current policy is a failure. And that austerity alone will not lead to the kingdom of heaven. 

S&P have cut their outlook on US debt so it's risk off again.
The whole global financial system is a big steaming pile of horse shit.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on April 18, 2011, 10:00:55 PM
Quote from: seafoid on April 18, 2011, 09:44:42 PM
Quote from: muppet on April 18, 2011, 08:22:45 PM
Portugal 10 yr bond rises to 9.08%
Ireland 10 year bond rise to 9.75%
Greek 10 year bonds rise to 14.55%

That is what the markets think of the bailed or almost bailed out economies.

Spain 10 yr bonds jump to 5.55% today.
the FT says the Germans are discussing a haircut on Greek debt. That would just open the floodgates.
An admission that current policy is a failure. And that austerity alone will not lead to the kingdom of heaven. 

S&P have cut their outlook on US debt so it's risk off again.
The whole global financial system is a big steaming pile of horse shit.

Why don't we :

Do a deal with Japan. Clearly they are an organised self-sufficient, productive people while we are nothing of the sort. We have volatile political and economic system on a stable landmass while they have a stable society on a volatile land mass. We owe the world a fortune while they merely owe themselves a fortune.

We should swap islands. They don't deserve the chaos, while we wouldn't even notice the earthquakes

We can have our chaotic existence on a chaotic surface while they can get on with being productive. We would need our debt written off of course and some extras like 100 years supply of beer and rice. The Unionists could decide whether they want to come with us or stay with their new more mannerly but still not British neighbours.

Well?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: armaghniac on April 18, 2011, 10:09:31 PM
QuoteThe Unionists could decide whether they want to come with us or stay with their new more mannerly but still not British neighbours.

우리는 항복하지 않습니다
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on April 18, 2011, 10:13:25 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on April 18, 2011, 10:09:31 PM
QuoteThe Unionists could decide whether they want to come with us or stay with their new more mannerly but still not British neighbours.

우리는 항복하지 않습니다

Ok ok.............you bags Taoiseach.

I bags Emperor Mé Féin the 1st.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on April 19, 2011, 08:30:04 AM
QuoteThe whole global financial system is a big steaming pile of horse shit.

A bit like this really http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Emperor's_New_Clothes (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Emperor's_New_Clothes)

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on April 19, 2011, 08:49:50 AM
Here is what is coming down the line for Ireland 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/639502a0-69dc-11e0-89db-00144feab49a.html#ixzz1Jx9t7dht

Greece must meet its restructuring fate
By Nicholas Economides and Roy Smith
Published: April 19 2011 00:46 | Last updated: April 19 2011 00:46
It has been almost a year since the €750bn European Financial Stability Fund was created to bail out over-borrowed Eurozone states, of which Greece was the first to falter.
Despite a €110bn loan from its neighbours, substantial budget tightening and reforms, and a change of government, Greece looks today even further away from a return to the markets than it was before the crisis. Whatever it is that the EFSF's loan and the European Central Bank's market purchases of Greek debt were supposed to do, the market hasn't bought it. It clearly is expecting restructuring.
Recently Der Spiegel reported that several Eurozone finance ministers told ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet that the Greek stabilisation plans were behind schedule and the debt ought to be restructured. Mr Trichet reportedly blocked the idea and refused to discuss it, and the EU's Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn agreed, saying that restructuring was out of the question. The main reason for their reluctance is the fear that any restructuring would have severe consequences on European banks, especially those from France, Germany and Switzerland.
This fear is well-placed because these banks have not accounted for their Greek or other sovereign holdings at market value, and accordingly, would have to incur substantial writedowns if a restructuring occurred.
Outstanding bank debt of all the peripheral countries held by banks now totals about $600bn. Market prices of this debt range from about 60 per cent of par value to about 85 per cent, so perhaps 30 per cent, or $180 billion, might represent unrealised losses – a manageable amount spread over several countries and numerous banks. The market is well aware of this, of course, and has already repriced the shares of the most exposed banks to reflect a fair market estimate of the current value of their sovereign debt holdings.
Facing the problems of bank losses is an integral part of addressing the sovereign debt issue. Neither the banks nor the distressed sovereign borrowers benefit from continued denial of the problem.
European banks are known to be undercapitalised, relative to their US counterparts, and are expected to have to raise additional capital over the next few years in any event. Refusing to acknowledge their Greek losses does nothing for the banks; the sooner their balance sheets recognise the reality of their holdings the better for them.
Greece, however, plainly needs restructuring to enable it to turn its economy around. It needs to reduce the total amount of its debt that is outstanding, reduce the interest rate it would pay for refinancing and lengthen the maturities of the debt so as to be able to repay it after its considerable belt tightening and reform efforts have had some effect.
Now that the European Structural Mechanism has been declared the permanent replacement of the EFSF, it ought to be possible to use an ESM guarantee to provide sufficient credit enhancement or collateral to allow a new series of Greek bonds to be exchanged for the old ones at their discounted market value, meaning that total debt would be reduced by around 30 per cent.
In the 1990s, after a few years of delay and denial – and fears of imposing unhealthy losses on the struggling banks that held the debt — 18 heavily indebted, distressed Latin American and other countries engaged in similar exchange. They offered old bank debt for new "Brady bonds", that were collateralised by a 30-year zero-coupon US Treasury bond. The programme was designed and orchestrated by the US, in order to clear up a huge problem of defaulted or underperforming sovereign debt.
The exchanges were well received, the governments were able to put meaningful recovery plans into effect, and banks stock prices began to rise. It was a market solution whose time had come. It is time now to do the same for Greece.
Nicholas Economides is a Professor of Economics at the New York University Stern School of Business. Roy C. Smith is a Professor of Finance at the New York University Stern School of Business and a contributor to 'Regulating Wall Street: The Dodd-Frank Act and The New Architecture of Global Finance'.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: wherefromref on April 19, 2011, 10:32:39 AM
From http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-13127351

Allied Irish Bank pay former MD £2.6m golden handshake

A former managing director of Allied Irish Bank (AIB) received a pay package of over 3m euros (£2.62m) last year, it as emerged.

Colm Doherty stepped down in November as a condition of the governments second bailout of the bank.

The Irish Times reported that Mr Doherty received the payments under a contract agreed in 2009.

This was when he was promoted to the role of managing director, replacing chief executive Eugene Sheehy.

The newspaper said details of the payments to Mr Doherty must appear in AIB's 2010 annual report, which is expected to be published shortly.
Contribution

Mr Doherty's pay was made up of a salary, from January to November, of 432,000 euro(£378.2m).

In place of a years' notice, he was paid 707,000 euro (£619,000) when his contract was terminated at the direction of the former finance minister, Brian Lenihan.

He was also paid about 2m euro (£1.75m) instead of a contribution to his pension.

The Irish Department of Finance has said that it did not sign off on this payment, but that the package was what Mr Doherty was legally entitled to, under the terms of his contract.

AIB has said it will not be commenting on executive pay in advance of the publication of the group's annual report.

AIB is the parent company of Northern Ireland based bank First Trust.

What an absolute disgrace!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on April 19, 2011, 01:58:17 PM
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/68794778/ (http://www.bloomberg.com/video/68794778/)

Not a bad performance by Kenny, certainly if you imagine what Cowen would have been like.

However, if his broad plan for us is to sort out the banking sector, address the budget deficit and create jobs, then eh..........he had better create an awful lot of jobs and fast.

But it is very hard for businesses to create jobs when they can't get access to credit.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on April 19, 2011, 03:08:13 PM
Full Nyberg whitewash here:

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0419/nybergreport.pdf (http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0419/nybergreport.pdf)

.....A minority of people indicated that contrarian views were both difficult to maintain during the long boom and unhealthy to present to boards or superiors. A number of people stated that had they implemented or consistently supported contrarian policies they may ultimately have lost their jobs, positions, or reputations......

This of course had nothing to do with Bertie wanting people who made negative comments to 'commit suicide'.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Denn Forever on April 24, 2011, 09:43:35 AM
Today this lunch time on BBC Radio 4.

13:30–14:00 Bailout Boys Go to Dublin
The inside story of Ireland's bailout. Six months on, the main players tell their story.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b010mryv
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Rossfan on April 24, 2011, 10:44:31 PM
If the "ECB/IMF etc forced Lenihan and Ireland into accepting the bail out it was due to them listening to 2 years of absolute sh1te/lies from the Government and as a response to the financial markets realising the Irish State was no longer a good bet which could have affected the €.
Best thing Lenihan and all the other cnuts who brought us to where we are could do is get off the fcukin stage and shut ye're filthy lying mouths. >:( >:( >:( >:( >:( >:( >:( >:( >:( >:(
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Main Street on April 26, 2011, 05:49:42 PM
Newstalk and RTE were getting desperate  (as anxious as a junkie in Needle Pk) at the thought of the Super Finns (or whatever they are called) pulling the plug on the ECB bailout.
'Say it aint so, say the Finns  won't pull the plug and scuttle our ECB bailout, say the Finns won't do that to us'.

There are times when I wish I could shove their microphone up where the sun doesn't shine. The  retarded democratic republic has been replaced by corporate/banking serfdom.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on April 26, 2011, 08:00:49 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on April 24, 2011, 10:44:31 PM
If the "ECB/IMF etc forced Lenihan and Ireland into accepting the bail out it was due to them listening to 2 years of absolute sh1te/lies from the Government and as a response to the financial markets realising the Irish State was no longer a good bet which could have affected the €.
Best thing Lenihan and all the other cnuts who brought us to where we are could do is get off the fcukin stage and shut ye're filthy lying mouths. >:( >:( >:( >:( >:( >:( >:( >:( >:( >:(

Here is one excuse Lenihan hasn't thought of yet: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-13194864 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-13194864)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: thejuice on April 26, 2011, 08:54:55 PM
If the USA default on their debts which is being repeatedly mentioned how exposed are we to that and what would it mean for the € and the £ ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on April 26, 2011, 09:13:23 PM
Quote from: thejuice on April 26, 2011, 08:54:55 PM
If the USA default on their debts which is being repeatedly mentioned how exposed are we to that and what would it mean for the € and the £ ?

How about everyone defaults on everyone's debts? I'd have no more debts. What would happen then?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: armaghniac on April 26, 2011, 09:22:06 PM
QuoteWhat would happen then?

I'd have no more deposits.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on April 26, 2011, 09:42:14 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on April 26, 2011, 09:22:06 PM
QuoteWhat would happen then?

I'd have no more deposits.

Bummer.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on May 03, 2011, 04:50:33 PM
http://www.politics.ie/economy/159498-overdose-next-financial-crisis.html (http://www.politics.ie/economy/159498-overdose-next-financial-crisis.html)

While we are still stuck in the last crisis the doomsayers are already predicting the next one. Very interesting programme even though it doesn't mention Ireland it is easy enough to guess what they would say about us, our Bank Guarantee and NAMA.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout by the IMF (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on May 03, 2011, 05:41:04 PM
P.ie has a rumour about a 'jobs budget' next Tuesday 10th May.

Kenny said earlier today that they would announce a jobs 'initiative' on that day.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on May 06, 2011, 06:01:52 PM
ECB denying rumours that Greece are going to pull out of the Eurozone!!!!!!

The Government needs to keep their heads  for a few months and our situation could improve nicely.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: armaghniac on May 07, 2011, 01:24:36 AM
Rather pointed article by Prof. Morgan Kelly in tomorrow's Irish Times
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2011/0507/1224296372123.html

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on May 07, 2011, 10:37:29 AM
Morgan Kelly is on the ball. the bailout didn't cure the cancer. It worsened it.   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Main Street on May 07, 2011, 11:39:49 AM
That Kelly article is fascinating.
We have had to witness the salivating Vincent Browne, worshipping at the economic altar of Honohan for the past 2 years.
It was about time somebody like Kelly exposes Honohan as little more than an agent of the ECB, a man who knew the figures and who actively worked on behalf of the ECB to deceive the Irish public and government.
And just as I had previously thought, the IMF encouraged and would have supported a bankrupt Irish State to assign a large proportion of bond debts to the bin.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: gallsman on May 07, 2011, 02:15:10 PM
Loan rate reduction looking more than likely.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13321551
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: whiskeysteve on May 07, 2011, 05:27:13 PM
Quote from: gallsman on May 07, 2011, 02:15:10 PM
Loan rate reduction looking more than likely.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13321551

a gesture so pathetic its a slap in the face. Irrelevant to the overall picture.

may as well be a 1% increase for all the difference it will make. throwing a bone to the tubes who run/ran the country, good doggy.

It will be truly pathetic if this is lauded as an achievement.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on May 07, 2011, 06:36:04 PM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on May 07, 2011, 05:27:13 PM
Quote from: gallsman on May 07, 2011, 02:15:10 PM
Loan rate reduction looking more than likely.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13321551

a gesture so pathetic its a slap in the face. Irrelevant to the overall picture.

may as well be a 1% increase for all the difference it will make. throwing a bone to the tubes who run/ran the country, good doggy.

It will be truly pathetic if this is lauded as an achievement.

Kelly estimates our total debt will be around €250bn in a couple of year.

Reducing the bailout rate by 1% reduces the interest on €85bn of that only. This would reduce the interest on this portion from €4.9bn p/a to €4.08bn. A drop in the ocean compared with the amount we have to repay.

BTW how on earth can both Greece and Portugal (rumoured) have a lower interest rate borrowing from the same sources? Exactly how useless were our negotiators?

That Kelly article is a real eye opener. It must be very difficult for someone like Kelly who has been calling it right for at least 5 years now yet no one listens to him.

For those who don't know who Morgan Kelly is here is Prime Time 17/04/2007 as a 'doomsayer' telling us we are going to have a crash of up to 50% of values. You might want to punch your laptop listening to Jim Power of Friends First telling us the fundamentals were sound:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gd6ZwqLePC0 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gd6ZwqLePC0)

Here he is on the night after the bank guarantee on the 30/08/2008 telling us the banks are screwed. I know most people have seen this but it is comical to listen to the experts, Keenan from the Indo and the Bloxhams guy, quoting Deutche Bank, RBS and Morgan Stanley and sneering at him:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=11CCxv2ueiQ&feature=related (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=11CCxv2ueiQ&feature=related)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on May 07, 2011, 06:53:47 PM
Thinking more about Morgan Kelly speaking out when he did, he was called a doomsayer, told to commit suicide by Bertie and best of all people like Jim Power said that he was wrong about a crash but if it did happen, that it would be the fault of people like Morgan Kelly for talking us into it.

The guy deserves our thanks at the very least.

Now for a laugh here is Patrick Neary on Prime Time in October 2008. It is so pathetic now it is actually funny.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UuHRulXfzGA (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UuHRulXfzGA)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: gallsman on May 07, 2011, 07:06:20 PM
Jim Power was supposed to teach me economics last year but didn't because the institution couldn't guarantee him a regular parking space.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on May 07, 2011, 07:07:06 PM
Thanks for the Jim Power video,  muppet. It's fascinating.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on May 09, 2011, 12:15:22 PM
Quote from: muppet on May 06, 2011, 06:01:52 PM
ECB denying rumours that Greece are going to pull out of the Eurozone!!!!!!

The Government needs to keep their heads  for a few months and our situation could improve nicely.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/ireland-business-blog-with-lisa-ocarroll/2011/may/09/ireland?CMP=twt_gu (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/ireland-business-blog-with-lisa-ocarroll/2011/may/09/ireland?CMP=twt_gu)

Greece's problem is a gift to Ireland
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on May 09, 2011, 07:20:01 PM
Wohoooo a new irish record!

(http://namawinelake.files.wordpress.com/2011/03/pigs6.jpg)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: armaghniac on May 09, 2011, 07:40:59 PM
I'd nearly be inclined to buy a bond at this rate. If things work out you double your money, if they knock a third off then you still do as well as any other investment and if they knock off more it would be a capital loss and useful for tax (if you have a better investment somewhere else).
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on May 10, 2011, 09:43:48 AM
Some interesting stuff here for fans of Mcwilliams!
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1022253.shtml (http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1022253.shtml)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Denn Forever on May 10, 2011, 02:47:12 PM
Quote from: Declan on May 10, 2011, 09:43:48 AM
Some interesting stuff here for fans of Mcwilliams!
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1022253.shtml (http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1022253.shtml)

So McWilliams is wrong too?  Do we believe what Morgan Kelly now?  What does Eddie Hobbs say?

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on May 10, 2011, 03:34:15 PM
Quote from: Denn Forever on May 10, 2011, 02:47:12 PM
Quote from: Declan on May 10, 2011, 09:43:48 AM
Some interesting stuff here for fans of Mcwilliams!
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1022253.shtml (http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1022253.shtml)

So McWilliams is wrong too?  Do we believe what Morgan Kelly now?  What does Eddie Hobbs say?
What does Eddie Hobbs know about economics ?   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on May 10, 2011, 03:49:31 PM
Quote from: Denn Forever on May 10, 2011, 02:47:12 PM
Quote from: Declan on May 10, 2011, 09:43:48 AM
Some interesting stuff here for fans of Mcwilliams!
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1022253.shtml (http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1022253.shtml)

So McWilliams is wrong too?  Do we believe what Morgan Kelly now?  What does Eddie Hobbs say?

Eddie is against any burning of bondholders. Instead he suggests we should lightly tickle them with feathers until they agree to write off some of the debt.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: ludermor on May 10, 2011, 03:50:41 PM
Quote from: seafoid on May 10, 2011, 03:34:15 PM
Quote from: Denn Forever on May 10, 2011, 02:47:12 PM
Quote from: Declan on May 10, 2011, 09:43:48 AM
Some interesting stuff here for fans of Mcwilliams!
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1022253.shtml (http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1022253.shtml)

So McWilliams is wrong too?  Do we believe what Morgan Kelly now?  What does Eddie Hobbs say?
What does Eddie Hobbs know about economics ?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economics  im pretty sure Eddie learnt everything from the link above.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Rossie11 on May 10, 2011, 04:47:21 PM
Latest piece from McWilliams.
Are the Greeks gonna save our skins by doing what our negotiators hadnt the balls to do??

Greeks turn tragedy into a drachma
May 9, 2011

By playing hardball with the French and Germans this weekend, Greece has bravely sparked a liberation which could topple the eurozone as we know it – and not a minute too soon

If you have ever tried to learn German, you will know that reading it is much more difficult than speaking it. The problem is the sentence construction, and the fact that the verb generally comes at the end of the sentence. So you spend ages trying to read practically backwards – or at least this particular grammatically-challenged student did.

Like all languages, after awhile there comes a time when your teacher gives you articles from a local paper to see if you can make out what is going on. I just about understood what the mass-market Bild was saying, but the real challenge was to figure out what was written in Der Spiegel.

In fact, German friends of mine used to joke that Der Spiegel was so highbrow and its readership so well-educated that even they had difficulty understanding the grammar it used. Der Spiegel uses the German of Schiller, Goethe and Heine. It is Germany's paper/magazine of record, not given to running stories without foundation.

Its credibility has been bolstered in recent weeks because it has clearly been getting accurate leaks from German government sources about the thinking both in Berlin and Frankfurt.

Therefore, the news published late last Friday afternoon in the online version of Der Spiegel, that Greece would leave the euro this weekend, caused the markets to react violently. The euro has plummeted against a feeble dollar. The German leak stated that certain eurozone finance ministers – the ones from the richer countries – were meeting this weekend in the exclusive surrounds of Château de Senningen in Luxembourg, with the Greeks indicating that, if they didn't get a deal on their debts, they would pull out of the euro. The usual denials followed the rumours, but it is clear that the Greeks are playing hardball – and good on them.

The Greeks know that, like us, their debt is unsustainable and that there is no way they can avoid default. They also know that their economy can't take more austerity. Greece has already missed some IMF targets, and will miss more. The markets decided months ago that the Greeks would default – the issue for investors is how and when, not if. The same goes for us.

The Greeks also know that the one thing the Germans and French – particularly the French – don't want is a 'conditional' euro, where commitment to the currency is conditional on whether it suits a country or not at a certain time in the economic cycle. The idea that a country could pull out is anathema to the French and German establishments, but this is exactly where their banks' reckless lending to the likes of Greece and Anglo Irish has led us.

Anyone who has any knowledge of economics realises that a strong currency makes a weak economy, like Greece's, weaker. We also know that, when debt can't be paid, it won't be paid. We also know that a balance sheet like Greece's, which is carrying too much debt, is never made stronger by yet more debt. It is made stronger by less debt.

There are only two ways you can lessen debt. The first is when the economy grows strongly, generating the tax revenue to pay off all the debt without much effort. This clearly will not happen in either Greece or Ireland. The other way is when you do a deal and default.

Obviously, this is what the Greeks will do this weekend and, just to focus the minds of the rest of Europe, they have indicated that, if they don't get a deal, they are off and will introduce a new drachma and leave the outstanding debt issues to the lawyers to sort out who gets what and when.

How would bringing the drachma back help them? First, they would announce that, from tonight, one new drachma is equal to one euro, and all former euro debts will be paid in drachmas at the prevailing exchange rate. At the moment of recalibration, all the old euro debts are to be paid in drachmas which, at that moment, have an exchange rate of one to one. So all the old euro debts are converted to drachma at an immediate exchange rate of one to one. So no default yet.

Then, they will announce that the drachma will be a free-floating currency. The currency's value will fall like a stone, possibly by as much as 70 per cent. This will wipe out much of Greece's debt problem at a stroke. But it's not that simple, because the people who are owed money by Greece will be livid – and will demand payment.

The Greeks will have figured out in advance how much is owed by foreigners and how much is owed by locals. They will clearly be keener to default on foreigners than locals. This is what the Russians did in 1998,whenRussia defaulted on rouble-denominated debt, knowing that foreigners – greedy for yield – had bought up the rouble-denominated debt. The Russians roasted the foreigners and gave the lawyers headaches.

The same would happen if Greece pulls out of the euro – a prolonged legal battle between creditors and Athens would ensue. The Greeks would then print the new currency and inflation would rise, resulting in a greater haircut being taken by the creditors because, the higher the Greek inflation, the more the drachma would fall and the more the creditors would lose.

Greek banks that hold Greek government debts would see the 'drachmasation' of their assets, which would undermine greatly the value of these banks in euro terms. However, in terms of the currency they lend in, the change would not be that huge.

Middle-class Greeks would take all their money out of the country and this money would wait offshore until the crisis settled down. The government would probably have to enforce capital controls for a time to make sure that it could have some control over where the currency went.

It would be chaotic but, like the Asian Tiger devaluations, it would pass and the country would recover. The economy adjusts. If you think the like of this is unusual, it is not. This is what Finland and Sweden did in 1993.They both sacrificed the interests of their creditors – both local and foreign – for the long-term interests of the economy. And it worked.

The competitive gains that both Finland and Sweden enjoyed from devaluing their currencies in 1992 lasted well into the 2000s.The British are regularly at the same game.

The difference in devaluing your currency and leaving a currency union is one of perception. The former is not likely until it happens and then life goes on; the latter is inconceivable until it happens, and then life goes on.

The country becomes more competitive, holidays in Greece are cheaper, exports from Greece are cheaper, the Greeks will price assets in euro for a while – this is a process which will be known as 'eurosation' and is already a reality in most Balkan countries anyway.

For example, if you want to buy an apartment in Croatia or Serbia, the price will always be given in euro, and never in kunas or dinars.

The crucial thing is the currency of the country is now appropriate to the country. A much weaker local currency reflects the weakened economy and we start again. Imports are expensive, which they should be, and exports are cheap, which they also should be. Like in Iceland, interest rates would fall rapidly, and off we go.

By threatening to leave the euro, the Greeks have called the Germans' bluff. The Germans were playing hardball with the Greeks, and now the Greeks have turned the tables and indicated that they are prepared to push the nuclear button, having decided that the fallout will be felt more abroad than at home. Nothing will focus the minds like this threat. The process of orderly default can now happen in the eurozone.

For Ireland, the one thing we can say with an element of certainty is that this weekend marks a liberation. Once the Greeks are given permission to default by the Germans, we will be next. The bondholders will not be paid, pure and simple.

This is obvious, no matter what language you speak. Some truisms are so clear that they never get lost in translation, even in Der Spiegel.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hardy on May 15, 2011, 06:41:08 PM
Only one problem I can see with McWilliams's statement that when we default, "the bondholders will not be paid, pure and simple". Haven't the bondholders been almost completely paid off already? It probably makes little difference anyway - it's the ECB that will jot be paid, pure and simple.

And, in the immortal words of Christy Browne - "f**k them!".
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on May 16, 2011, 04:04:13 PM
The (European) head of the IMF is involved in a sex scandal. A replacement might take a very different tack with the ECB.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: whiskeysteve on May 16, 2011, 09:12:19 PM
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/treasury-confirms-debt-ceiling-be-breached-today-will-tap-pension-funds

This time 2 years ago I was a complete and utter ecomonic illiterate. Since then I took the time to read up and learn a bit. I followed the signifigance of the Irish 10 year as it raced up. I read McWilliams. I listened to Gurdgiev. Looking further afield, I followed Zero Hedge, listened to Kaiser, to Roubini, to Soros. I read Freefall by Stiglitz and watched Inside Job. I have read hundreds of opinion pieces and continue to do so.

I'm still pretty clueless but at least have a fairer sense of what way the winds blowing.

And this seems like a real Black Swan event to me. They are going to blow up the ultimate debt bubble. The kerfuffle after Lehmans went under will be a fart in the wind compared to the crash coming down the line this decade.

Any thoughts?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on May 16, 2011, 09:26:53 PM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on May 16, 2011, 09:12:19 PM
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/treasury-confirms-debt-ceiling-be-breached-today-will-tap-pension-funds

This time 2 years ago I was a complete and utter ecomonic illiterate. Since then I took the time to read up and learn a bit. I followed the signifigance of the Irish 10 year as it raced up. I read McWilliams. I listened to Gurdgiev. Looking further afield, I followed Zero Hedge, listened to Kaiser, to Roubini, to Soros. I read Freefall by Stiglitz and watched Inside Job. I have read hundreds of opinion pieces and continue to do so.

I'm still pretty clueless but at least have a fairer sense of what way the winds blowing.

And this seems like a real Black Swan event to me. They are going to blow up the ultimate debt bubble. The kerfuffle after Lehmans went under will be a fart in the wind compared to the crash coming down the line this decade.

Any thoughts?

I was banned from talking about this thread or the economy at the recent golf outing...............but that's over now.

We in Ireland are still stuck in the last crisis while other economies lurch towards the next one. Each solution always seems to create a bigger bubble and a bigger crash. Communism failed miserably and now Capitalism is consuming itself and everyone else.

We need some creative thinking and rebranding either Communism or Capitalism is not the answer. Both give long term power to small elites.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on May 16, 2011, 10:06:42 PM
Quote from: muppet on May 16, 2011, 09:26:53 PM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on May 16, 2011, 09:12:19 PM
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/treasury-confirms-debt-ceiling-be-breached-today-will-tap-pension-funds

This time 2 years ago I was a complete and utter ecomonic illiterate. Since then I took the time to read up and learn a bit. I followed the signifigance of the Irish 10 year as it raced up. I read McWilliams. I listened to Gurdgiev. Looking further afield, I followed Zero Hedge, listened to Kaiser, to Roubini, to Soros. I read Freefall by Stiglitz and watched Inside Job. I have read hundreds of opinion pieces and continue to do so.

I'm still pretty clueless but at least have a fairer sense of what way the winds blowing.

And this seems like a real Black Swan event to me. They are going to blow up the ultimate debt bubble. The kerfuffle after Lehmans went under will be a fart in the wind compared to the crash coming down the line this decade.

Any thoughts?

I was banned from talking about this thread or the economy at the recent golf outing...............but that's over now.

We in Ireland are still stuck in the last crisis while other economies lurch towards the next one. Each solution always seems to create a bigger bubble and a bigger crash. Communism failed miserably and now Capitalism is consuming itself and everyone else.

We need some creative thinking and rebranding either Communism or Capitalism is not the answer. Both give long term power to small elites.

Muppet- I came across this article recently and I thought it was very interesting. We are looking at running out of oil and runaway climate change the way things are going.  We need a new system. World War 1 came out of a structural crisis in capitalism and so did WW2 so the stakes are high. 

http://monthlyreview.org/2011/03/01/structural-crisis-in-the-world-system

Premise No. 1 is that all systems—from the astronomical universe to the smallest physical phenomena, and including of course historical social systems—have lives. They come into existence at some point, which needs to be explained. They have "normal" lives, the rules of which need to be explicated. The functioning of their normal lives tends, over time, to move them far from equilibrium, at which point they enter a structural crisis, and in due course cease to exist. The functioning of their normal lives has to be analyzed in terms of cyclical rhythms and secular trends. The cyclical rhythms are sets of systemic fluctuations (upturns and downturns), in which the system regularly returns to equilibrium. However, it is a moving equilibrium since, at the end of a downturn, the system never returns to exactly where it was at the beginning of the upturn. This is because secular trends (slow, long-term increases in some systemic characteristic) push the curve slowly upward, as measured by some percentage of that characteristic in the system. Eventually, the secular trends move the system too near its asymptotes, and the system is unable to continue  its normal, regular, slow upward push. Thereupon, it begins to fluctuate wildly and repeatedly, leading to a bifurcation—that is, to a chaotic situation in which a stable equilibrium cannot be maintained. In such a chaotic situation, there are two quite divergent possibilities of recreating order out of chaos, or a new stable system. This period we may call the structural crisis of the system, and there is a system-wide battle—for historical social systems, a political battle—over which of two alternative possible outcomes will be collectively "chosen."
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on May 17, 2011, 08:17:03 AM
We were trying to avoid reality at the Golf Classic so that's why we banned muppet from bringing the subject up!!!

But as has been said before the whole house of cards is falling down but people are just not addressing that issue - still trying to convince themselves that it's possible to work out of it -Look at these figures - http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703421204576325583050561022.html?mod=WSJEurope_hpp_LEFTTopStories (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703421204576325583050561022.html?mod=WSJEurope_hpp_LEFTTopStories)

Anyway here's whats ahead of us - http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/16/business/global/16drachma.html?_r=2&ref=business (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/16/business/global/16drachma.html?_r=2&ref=business)

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: thejuice on May 17, 2011, 10:15:05 AM
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/14294-trillion-in-the-red-so-us-treasury-must-stop-borrowing-2285025.html

A tranche of roughly $72bn in bonds and notes issued by the US Treasury yesterday left the national coffers exactly $14.294tr in the red, meaning that there is for the time being no capacity for additional public borrowing. The Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geithner, said he would pull an accounting trick, suspending investment in two large federal retirement funds and allowing the Government to meet its financial obligations until 2 August.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: armaghniac on May 17, 2011, 11:21:08 AM
(http://www.kirkreport.com/pictures/printing_dollars.gif)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on May 17, 2011, 12:31:03 PM
QuoteEach of these actions has been taken in the past by my predecessors during previous debt limit impasses. By law, the CSRDF and G Funds will be made whole once the debt limit is increased. Federal retirees and employees will be unaffected by these actions.
This an excerpt from the letter sent to congress, does any of you know how many times and by whom has this been done in the past?  Is it really that big a deal?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: HiMucker on May 17, 2011, 12:49:47 PM
Quote from: thejuice on May 17, 2011, 10:15:05 AM
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/14294-trillion-in-the-red-so-us-treasury-must-stop-borrowing-2285025.html

A tranche of roughly $72bn in bonds and notes issued by the US Treasury yesterday left the national coffers exactly $14.294tr in the red, meaning that there is for the time being no capacity for additional public borrowing. The Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geithner, said he would pull an accounting trick, suspending investment in two large federal retirement funds and allowing the Government to meet its financial obligations until 2 August.
Aye but not to wory lads thats only 14.294 trillion short scale were a trillion is only a thousand billion as appose to long scale were a trillion would be a billion billion.  So we are not that bad off really!!  Hence how we can afford all these state visits.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on May 17, 2011, 12:54:31 PM
http://cachef.ft.com/cms/s/0/7f55fe18-6a8c-11df-b282-00144feab49a.html#ixzz1Jt0wFhDy

Bobby decided not to respond to this teasing. "So," he asked thoughtfully, "what's going to happen next?"
"If I knew that, I wouldn't be a mere economic journalist," his father said.
Bobby smiled: a familiar remark.
His father did not notice. "Maybe, the momentum gained by the US and the big emerging markets, especially China, will let the world ride through the shocks. The OECD calls the outlook 'moderately encouraging'.
"Alternatively, you could argue that the massive fiscal deficits are unsustainable and that attempts to rein them in, in the eurozone and UK, are going to cause renewed recession and political strife. We have also barely begun reducing private debts, which will take years. The banks are far too big and have too many doubtful assets on their books. Meanwhile, emerging countries are too small and weak to be locomotives for the world. Some people worry that China is overheating or suffering from huge asset price bubbles, too, though I disagree. And then there is geopolitical uncertainty over North Korea and Iran. In short, markets are volatile because of all the uncertainty out there."
Bobby was beginning to find this familiar: his father tended to see the gloomy side. But he could be wrong, as his mother enjoyed pointing out.
"Anyway," concluded his father, "these aftershocks are likely to go on for years, with fiscal worries undermining confidence in the financial sector and back again. It will affect you, too: western governments are going to be short of money for decades. It's going to be miserable. But you can learn Chinese and go east."
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: the Deel Rover on May 17, 2011, 04:20:13 PM
This was in the sindo on sunday 

What would happen to your money if Ireland defaulted?
Sunday May 15 2011

WITH uber economist Morgan Kelly forecasting that the national debt could hit €270bn, it's becoming increasingly clear that Ireland can't afford to pay back all its borrowings. Defaulting on this debt is a common call. Even taxi drivers are at it. But the impact of a default or exit from the euro could blast a hole in your pocket.

Some of the countries that have defaulted on foreign debt in the past include Argentina, Peru, Mexico and Liberia.

If Ireland defaults on the IMF-EU debt, it could find itself thrown out of the eurozone -- if indeed, it hasn't decided to leave of its own accord. Default doesn't necessarily mean we'll leave the eurozone -- but nations that have defaulted in the past have usually had their own local currency.

The Irish punt could then be reintroduced -- but over time that punt would most likely plummet. And if that happened, the country would find itself in the middle of a currency crisis.

This happened to Argentina when it defaulted on its foreign debt in 2001. Before they defaulted, the Argentine peso was pegged at a par to the US dollar. After the country defaulted, the peso lost about 70 per cent of its value. So how exactly could a default eat into your pockets?

Your savings

A default would probably wipe out the value of your savings -- and it could also make it impossible for you to get your hands on them.

"If Ireland defaulted on its foreign debt and reintroduced the punt, the money in most bank accounts would be in punts rather than euro," said Kevin O'Doherty, director of the regulatory consultants Compliance Ireland.

"Because of the economic situation the country would be in, the value of the punt would plummet. The value of your savings would go down as the currency depreciated.

"If you have your life savings squirrelled away in the credit union, you'd find the value of those savings diminished as the price of foreign goods and services becomes more expensive."

Cian Twomey, a lecturer in financial economics at NUI Galway, said the value of people's savings would be at the very least halved if Ireland defaulted and left the eurozone.

"Our savings would be worth between 50 and 70 per cent less in punts than they would have been worth in euro," said Mr Twomey.

You might also find yourself locked out of your savings accounts. When Argentina defaulted in 2001, the Argentine government froze deposits to prevent savers converting their deposits into a more valuable foreign currency.

They also restricted the amount of money that Argentinians could withdraw from their accounts to about 250 pesos a week (worth about €134 in the wake of the default). Not long after the default, it was a common sight for Argentinians to be searching for ATMs that weren't empty.

You could lose your savings if your bank or credit union went bust. The Government guarantees savings of up to €100,000 held in Irish banks. In some cases, savings of more than €100,000 are also protected.

"If Ireland defaults, how would the Government continue to guarantee deposits?" said Mr Twomey. "The Government can only continue to guarantee deposits if it can continue to borrow."

If, however, Ireland defaults on its IMF-EU loans, the chances of finding anyone to lend us money at non-prohibitive interest rates are slim.

More than €100bn worth of savings were withdrawn from Irish banks last year amid fears of our banks collapsing.

If Ireland defaults and the Government clamps down on savings like the Argentines did, billions could leave the country. People would take desperate measures. "People with a bit of money would fly off to France and other European countries and open a euro bank account," said Mr O'Doherty.

Your mortgage

If you're lucky enough to have a cheap tracker mortgage, some believe you might have to kiss goodbye to it if Ireland leaves the eurozone. "The interest rates on your mortgage would be set to the Irish punt," said Mr O'Doherty. "That means your ECB tracker would disappear."

Your tracker mortgage is a contract which you have with your bank, so whether or not you would lose it if Ireland left the eurozone remains to be seen. However, if the interest rates on mortgages were tied to the Irish punt after an Irish exit of the eurozone, interest rates could soar.

Less than 20 years ago, a currency crisis hit Ireland. The Irish punt was devalued by about 10 per cent at the time and Irish interest rates reached unprecedented levels. Mortgage interest rates in Ireland climbed as high as 16 per cent in 1993.

Those who had taken out a loan from a European bank would also be walloped. An Irish citizen would find it much harder to pay back a mortgage in euro if he is being paid in punts -- as the punt would very rapidly be worth a lot less than the euro.

Your pension

If you're put out by the Government's move to raid pension funds so it can finance its latest jobs plan, you'll be even more put out if Ireland followed in the footsteps of other countries that have defaulted. When Argentina defaulted, it expropriated pension funds, transforming them into government-backed loans to service debt.

Your shopping trolley

The price of foreign goods has exploded in countries that have found themselves embroiled in currency crises. In Argentina, inflation hit 30 per cent just a few months after the default. The same would probably happen here.

Domestic prices, such as for your newspaper or pint of milk, would remain the same. "The prices of things made outside of Ireland would become much more unaffordable," said Mr O'Doherty.

"That would include things like foreign holidays, Japanese or German cars or bottles of wine. The foreign goods you put into your supermarket trolley each week could double or treble in price."

Chances are that at least half of the goods in your supermarket trolley come from abroad.

Tourists would be one of the few to benefit from an Irish currency crisis. As their foreign dollars or euro could be twice or triple the value of the Irish punt, they'd get more bang for their buck here.

Your child benefit and dole

If Ireland defaults on its EU-IMF loan, it would no longer have the financial support that it needs to plug its massive budget deficit. The Government could have to unleash spending cuts of €18bn to fund itself. To achieve that, the Cabinet could slash child benefit, dole payments, state pensions and public sector wages by about a third, the Department of Finance warned last week.

Your jobs

Ireland's international reputation has already been hammered by the banking crisis and recession. If we were to default on top of this, our reputation might never recover.

Multinationals could pull out of lreland, leading to major job losses. Foreign companies eyeing up Ireland as a possible base could pull back from their plans. "If Ireland suddenly defaulted, it would damage future investment in the country and dissuade people from doing business with us," said Mr Twomey.

The way you pay

Paying by credit card could be impossible if Ireland defaults. In Argentina in 2002, many stores wouldn't accept them.

Millions of Argentinians were also forced to barter for food and petrol that year because they were not allowed to spend the money in their bank accounts.

The very least we can expect is a thriving black economy. By 2005 -- only four years after Argentina defaulted -- it was believed about half of its population worked in the black economy which can lead to a big drop in the government's tax take.

This would lead to less money for public services -- in essence, we'd become a third-world country.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on May 17, 2011, 05:53:36 PM
Don't think that Indo article is anything other than scaremongering. Firstly it slags uber economist Morgan Kelly and incorrectly states he predicts the National debt will be €270bn. Kelly said it could be as much as €250bn and he was attacked by the Indo for inaccuracy in his figures so they could at least not exaggerate his figure.

Then there is this:

Your mortgage

If you're lucky enough to have a cheap tracker mortgage, some believe you might have to kiss goodbye to it if Ireland leaves the eurozone. "The interest rates on your mortgage would be set to the Irish punt," said Mr O'Doherty. "That means your ECB tracker would disappear."

Your tracker mortgage is a contract which you have with your bank, so whether or not you would lose it if Ireland left the eurozone remains to be seen. However, if the interest rates on mortgages were tied to the Irish punt after an Irish exit of the eurozone, interest rates could soar.

Less than 20 years ago, a currency crisis hit Ireland. The Irish punt was devalued by about 10 per cent at the time and Irish interest rates reached unprecedented levels. Mortgage interest rates in Ireland climbed as high as 16 per cent in 1993.

Those who had taken out a loan from a European bank would also be walloped. An Irish citizen would find it much harder to pay back a mortgage in euro if he is being paid in punts -- as the punt would very rapidly be worth a lot less than the euro.


As for the currency crisis 20 years ago the interest rate rises were as a result of the crisis (which was as a result of speculators) - not the devaluation. This is deliberately allowing people to believe that the devaluation caused the high rates. It didn't.

As for the last paragraph, I'm not convinced either. Let's say RBS loaned you €100,000 and AIB lent you another €100,000. Those loans were with Irish regulated banks in Irelands. At the instant of the currency change both €100,000s would convert into the same amount of punts (depending on the devaluation) which would be your new debt. I don't see why the former would convert to a different amount of punts than the latter.

In conclusion, I think it is spin.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on May 17, 2011, 08:18:31 PM
Me too, Muppet. The Sindo is all over the place since they stuck the knife in FF .
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on May 19, 2011, 08:37:45 PM
No comment:
(http://namawinelake.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/arrearsq12011.jpg)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on May 20, 2011, 05:07:00 PM
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/may/20/eurozone-crisis (http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/may/20/eurozone-crisis)

Five ways to solve the eurozone crisis
Myths and misinformation feed in to a general lack of ideas about how to save the eurozone

Henning Meyer

The crisis of the eurozone seems to be going from bad to worse. Not only have the key players not yet found convincing solutions for the fiscal problems in Greece, Ireland and Portugal but we are already witnessing the beginning of a political backlash that could undermine the achievements of decades of European integration. There is generally a lack of ideas about what needs to be done to turn things around so here are my suggestions:

1. Say it as it is: it's about politics, not economics

As Wolfgang Muenchau observed, the debt to GDP ratio of the eurozone as a whole is less than that of the UK or the US and does not pose an overall economic problem. The problem is that there is a lack of political mechanisms to deal with fiscal crises in some areas of the eurozone. So this crisis is not about economics, it is about politics and economically illiterate politicians.

2. There are no payments – be honest with Europe's citizens

It is frankly shameful that most European leaders, especially in Germany, keep their population believing that there are direct payments to countries such as Greece. This nurtures the wrong assumption that the German taxpayer pays for early retirement and other luxuries they themselves do not enjoy.

This is just wrong. The bailout is not a direct payment – it provides IMF and EU lending facilities that lend at lower than market interest rates but at higher rates than the countries that underwrite it can get money for. So the bailout (actually a misnomer) is not a handout but a loan at a profitable rate if there is no default.

What this dishonesty does, however, is to undermine solidarity and to create a widespread mood against Europe in debtor as well as creditor countries.

The fact that anti-European parties are on the rise all over the place is therefore unsurprising and to a significant extent due to the mainstream parties not being honest about what is going on.

3. Stop the banking socialism

But why are Europe's leaders not straight? Almost certainly there has to be a debt restructuring at some point and it should naturally be the investors that take the first hit, not the taxpayers.

A significant part of the bailout is used to service sovereign debt so the money goes straight into the pockets of the bondholders and not to the people in the crisis countries who are actually exposed to crippling austerity measures. In essence, the bailouts help banks holding sovereign debt of crisis countries to socialise their investment risk. And the more debt is bought up by the ECB – or maybe by the lending facilities themselves – the more the taxpayers are liable.

Of course, if a haircut or some other form of immediate restructuring brought certain banks into trouble they would have to be supported if they are systemically relevant. But in such a situation it would at least be clear that normal capitalist rules still apply and the primary investment risk lies with the investor who was already compensated for this risk via the interest rate. At the moment we have privatised profits and socialised risks while keeping people in the dark about it. This cannot continue.

4. Breaking up the eurozone is the most expensive option – admit it

It also requires some political honesty to admit that there are no cheap options left to resolve this crisis. But breaking up the eurozone would be the most expensive one. Why?

Imagine Greece leaving the euro and reintroducing the drachma. Apart from the practical problems and costs a currency switch would create an immediate run on the Greek banks by savers wanting to take their assets abroad because the drachma would radically depreciate against the euro.

The debt to GDP ratio would also increase drastically as the debt would still be in euro, making a default much more likely. Given the low proportion of exports as a share of Greek GDP, the resulting increase in competitiveness would not outweigh the costs. So this surely looks like the worst option.

5. Forget the stability and growth pact – we need proper economic governance

It is simply wrong for some commentators to say that diluting the stability and growth pact was the reason for the euro crisis. First of all the pact is based on random figures. The 60% overall debt to GDP and the 3% annual deficit limits were just based on the average debt and growth rates of 1990. There is no economic rationale for these figures and they do not allow for specific circumstances either.

Germany was one of the first countries to break these rules as they do not allow for country-specific circumstances to be considered. Therefore the huge costs produced by German reunification could not be taken into account when judging German fiscal policy.

It is true that Greece's real fiscal position has been obscured by wrong figures, but Ireland for instance was in a very strong fiscal position – well within the pact criteria – when the crisis broke out. The pact did not, however, prevent Irish banks from creating balance sheets of a multiple of GDP, and it did not prevent the building up of a housing bubble and aggressive beggar-thy-neighbour tax policies either.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on May 20, 2011, 09:45:24 PM
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2011/CAR052011A.htm (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2011/CAR052011A.htm)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: thejuice on May 21, 2011, 10:46:53 PM
Want to try living without money?

http://www.rte.ie/radio1/doconone/links.html
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on May 23, 2011, 11:19:52 AM
Gene Kerrigan: My heart bleeds for our poor judges
Stop wasting money on children and the elderly -- it's time to look after the judiciary, writes Gene Kerrigan

Sunday May 22 2011

THERE'S a positive side to an economic crisis -- albeit, a bitter one. When an economy falls through the floor, the various interests in society scramble to protect their asses. In normal times, the powerful look after one another. In times of severe stress, the solidarity cracks and we get a hint of friction behind the scenes.

In a private meeting with the Taoiseach, the Chief Justice discussed the effect of the pension levy on judges' pensions.

Then the judges authorised one of their number to put their case to an Irish Times journalist, off the record. And last week, unbidden by his Lordships, former PD leader Michael McDowell leapt into the debate, in an article in this newspaper.

Michael, a wealthy barrister and occasional politician, unsheathed his trusty sword and demanded justice for judges. And why not? Despite the pomp and the pretence, judges are as entitled as anyone else to be treated fairly.

Now, mind you, whatever Michael writes about, at heart he's usually writing about Michael. The first three sentences of his article began with "I" and the first-person pronoun was used nine times in the opening paragraph.

Nevertheless, there's a germ of truth in Michael's claim that the pension levy places a heavy burden on some judges.

To which Soapbox says, tough luck, M'Lud.

At the beginning of this crisis, Soapbox identified a couple of basic truths. One: there would be an attempt to solve the crisis by forcing people on low and medium incomes to pay for it, along with those who depend most on State services -- kids, the old, the sick and the handicapped. It's how the establishment handled the Eighties recession.

Two: we said the crisis was much more serious than the establishment realised. The banks didn't have a liquidity problem, they had a solvency problem and gambling the solvency of the State on the performance of the banks was a stupid, reckless and unforgivable thing to do.

We predicted that even the wealthy would have to make sacrifices and in December 2008 we laid down the general rule of The Quality Of The Wine. Schoolkids and the sick would be shafted first, to minimise the impact on those who benefited most from the boom.

"It's about maintaining the quality of the wine at the Dublin 4 dinner party," we suggested. "It's a highly class-conscious effort to ensure the recession has minimal effect on those who matter."

Seven months later, we particularised this rule.

"People who routinely uncork a €48 bottle of wine will, indeed, make sacrifices in our hour of peril. They'll settle for a €36 bottle of plonk. But they're damned if they'll slum it with a crappy €22 bottle."

And so it has proved.

At the highest levels of the private and public sectors, the establishment has for years been paying itself outrageous amounts of money. It's not unreasonable that someone should get a premium for enhanced qualifications or responsibilities -- but these people award each other monstrous salaries and fees, extravagant expenses and obscene pensions. This is akin to looting.

The crisis forced many of them to try to show that "we're all in this together" by taking token cuts, while preserving the structural greed. RTE's Sean O'Rourke was spot on, some time back, in suggesting to a member of the establishment that such cuts were "superficial and patronising".

Amid all the chatter about "tough decisions", the penny hasn't yet dropped (a penny's a small coin, M'Lud, with which you couldn't be expected to be familiar).

When you cut back on the meagre home help allocated to an elderly pensioner, you crush that life. He or she loses the slim protection that holds humiliation at bay. And the final days of a productive, useful life are spent in fear and isolation, meals not taken, soiled sheets reused, dying in silence with a tear-stained face.

We're doing that now. And a lot of other wrenching things -- to the old, the young, the unemployed, the low-paid, those struggling on a middling income.

We did it in the Eighties, with policies that are now lauded. And we did it then while the establishment turned a blind eye to the massive tax frauds it knew were taking place (it knew because so many of the establishment were in on the frauds).

Michael McDowell was not at his most coherent in that article, but I gather that having put together large pension pots while working as lawyers, some judges now find themselves over the limit for the pension levy and facing large bills.

Yes, the judges make a case for an apparent inequity. But that inequity arises from a greater inequity.

Michael makes reference to that inequity in passing, utterly blind to what it says about how this society is structured.

"In most cases", he says, "appointees (to the bench) take a steep drop in earnings." And what does that tell us, M'Lud?

The lowest judges on the judicial totem pole are paid €148,000. The ones most affected are on upwards of €250,000. And for years before they reached that level of pay their income was steeply higher, according to Michael. And it doesn't occur to him that there might be anything wrong with this.

Lawyers do a useful job. They facilitate what is essentially an important form of arbitration, whether criminal or civil. Many lawyers are on much lower levels of pay. But many are vastly overpaid. These are not fees, they are lottery winnings. And they win every year.

This kind of structural greed ranges through the professions, the top of the civil service and the top of the private sector. And there always seems to be a loophole through which the wealthiest escape -- for example, the highest earners, with the grossest pensions, will escape the pension levy.

Unfortunately for some judges, the Finance Act 2011 was rushed through the Dail and no one noticed that some judges would face a real penalty, not the superficial and patronising cuts the establishment usually gets away with.

Enda Kenny daren't be seen to help them out, so the class solidarity cracks.

The irony is that the pension levy is peanuts. It won't solve any problem. Screwing the judges won't solve the problem. But, neither will screwing the pensioners, the kids, the sick and the low and medium earners.

Another basic truth -- at the heart of the crisis there's a vast pile of debt that cannot and will not be paid back. It wasn't caused by the State over-spending, it was caused by the reckless gambling by private sector banks across Europe, including Ireland. All else pales before this monster.

The whole thing can only be unravelled at a European level, by politicians making a giant leap of the imagination, taking decisions that restructure much more than the private debt now being shouldered by the Irish State.

But that would undermine the structural inequalities on which their view of life, and their national and personal interests, are grounded.

And that is something they cannot conceive of doing.

So, we grind on, patching leaks in the sinking ship. And, yes, some judges may hurt. But, below decks, M'Lud, people are dying in their own shit.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: thejuice on May 24, 2011, 12:32:34 PM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b011k45f/All_Watched_Over_by_Machines_of_Loving_Grace_Love_and_Power/

Very interesting documentary. sounds very familiar.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on May 24, 2011, 01:03:00 PM
I was talking to a friend who works in an investment bank in Geneva and he was saying that the decision to pay the bank bondholders back in full was madness. He wouldn't be an adherent of Jim Larkin either. I think what will end up happening is that Ireland will default on a sum of money not too far from the amount that was paid out to the bondholders. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on May 24, 2011, 01:24:18 PM
Quotehttp://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b011k45f/All_Watched_Over_by_Machines_of_Loving_Grace_Love_and_Power/

Very interesting documentary. sounds very familiar.

Watched that last night - Talk about Deja Vu
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on May 27, 2011, 11:24:01 AM
http://www.todayfm.com/Shows/Weekdays/Matt-Cooper/Matt-Cooper-Blog/11-05-11/The_Best_Way_To_Rob_A_Bank_Is_To_Own_One.aspx?ReturnURL=%2fShows%2fWeekdays%2fMatt-Cooper%2fMatt-Cooper-Blog.aspx (http://www.todayfm.com/Shows/Weekdays/Matt-Cooper/Matt-Cooper-Blog/11-05-11/The_Best_Way_To_Rob_A_Bank_Is_To_Own_One.aspx?ReturnURL=%2fShows%2fWeekdays%2fMatt-Cooper%2fMatt-Cooper-Blog.aspx)

Listen to this interview and wonder why the governing classes are still riding us
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: armaghniac on May 27, 2011, 12:27:57 PM
Actually the best way to rob a bank is to manage one. The owners, the shareholders, got screwed, but the managers ran off with big pension pots.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: whiskeysteve on May 27, 2011, 12:34:33 PM
"Ireland can reduce its debt from almost 130% of GDP to under 20% of GDP"

Obviously sounds too good to be true but are these people on to a least a part-solution for European sovereign debt?

http://www.eudebtwriteoff.com/

Don't have time to read it though, just caught the jist of it
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on May 30, 2011, 10:26:08 AM
http://www.businessinsider.com/greek-bailout-will-require-loss-of-sovereignty-2011-5?utm_source=twbutton&utm_medium=social&utm_term=&utm_content=&utm_campaign=moneygame (http://www.businessinsider.com/greek-bailout-will-require-loss-of-sovereignty-2011-5?utm_source=twbutton&utm_medium=social&utm_term=&utm_content=&utm_campaign=moneygame)

GREECE: Shocking New Bailout Conditions Mean The End Of National Sovereignty
Joe Weisenthal    | May 29, 2011, 9:28 PM | 7,202 |      69
 
Big news on the Greece front: In order for the country to get future bailout money, the country will have to give up some sovereignty.
Specifically, according to a bombshell FT report, outside authorities will take over various functions related to tax collection (a big time problem in Athens) and privatizations.
None of this is certain yet. It's just what's on the table, and no doubt politicians in the country will flip out.
But every attempt to cut the deficit has failed so far, and the powers that be in Europe (EU, ECB, IMF) are adamantly opposed to any kind of debt restructuring that would trigger a credit event, and imperil European banks.
Meanwhile, there were already huge protests in Athens today. Things are moving fast.


Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/greek-bailout-will-require-loss-of-sovereignty-2011-5?utm_source=twbutton&utm_medium=social&utm_term=&utm_content=&utm_campaign=moneygame#ixzz1NpHnGdZI
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on May 30, 2011, 10:42:26 AM
The bust gets bustier

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/eb91ba84-8a27-11e0-beff-00144feab49a.html#ixzz1NpAauvVp

"European leaders are negotiating a deal that would lead to unprecedented outside intervention in the Greek economy, including international involvement in tax collection and privatisation of state assets, in exchange for new bail-out loans for Athens. People involved in the talks said the package would also include incentives for private holders of Greek debt voluntarily to extend Athens' repayment schedule, as well as another round of austerity measures."

"Despite the hurdles, pressure is building to have a deal done within three weeks because of an IMF threat to withhold its portion of June's €12bn bail-out payment unless Athens can show it can meet all its financing requirements for the next 12 months."

Wolfgang Munchau is having a great crisis

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cf7b10b8-8a25-11e0-beff-00144feab49a.html#ixzz1Np34PLrp

"The policy alternatives are becoming increasingly clear. Either the EU/IMF continues to bankroll Greece for as long as it takes, or Greece will be forced into a hard default. There is no middle way"

" My hunch is that the European Council would prevent a break-up of the eurozone at this stage, and accept a follow-up programme. Once that programme ended, the same situation would present itself again. Northern European politicians will hyperventilate. They will talk about debt restructuring but in the end, they will roll over again for as long as Greece meets the conditions.
If Greek politics interferes, all bets are off. Material noncompliance with the EU/IMF programme will always trigger a default. The price for continued support from the EU and the IMF is a quasi loss of economic sovereignty on the part of Greece. "

J. K. Galbraith:"The conventional wisdom" gives way not so much to new ideas as to "the massive onslaught of circumstances with which it cannot contend".
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on May 30, 2011, 10:57:46 AM
"For every problem, there is a solution that is neat, plausible and wrong." Mencken 

"A society one-dimensional in its driving force produces one-dimensional people, and struggles to be supported by them" Marcuse

As the Russians like to say, the situation is hopeless but not serious.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on May 30, 2011, 11:13:47 AM
Quote from: seafoid on May 30, 2011, 10:57:46 AM
"For every problem, there is a solution that is neat, plausible and wrong." Mencken 

"A society one-dimensional in its driving force produces one-dimensional people, and struggles to be supported by them" Marcuse

As the Russians like to say, the situation is hopeless but not serious.

That quote should go on the Mayo Football thread!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on May 30, 2011, 01:14:03 PM
Varadkar yesterday mentioned that Ireland would not be able to return to the bond markets by 2012 and that we'll most likely need a second bail out by then - no big news there I think all readers and contributors to this thread would agree.

Well, wrong, because apparently he's in deep shit with the party, he's issued a statement bullshitting about hypothetical situations etc and trying to retract what he said.  Now, Noonan has come out and said this:

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/0530/breaking6.html

QuoteMinister for Finance Michael Noonan said he is hopeful the State will be back in the bond markets "in some small way" by end of 2012 despite an apparent suggestion to the contrary by Minister for Transport Leo Varadkar.

Speaking at a meeting of the Mid West Society of Chartered Accountants in Limerick today, Mr Noonan said categorically there will be "absolutely" no second bail out for Ireland next year.

Why do governments feel the need to keep people in the dark, do they think that the markets haven't already sussed this out, why do they have to repeat the mistakes of their predecessors, can they not remember poor auld Dermot Ahern's denials.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on May 30, 2011, 03:49:40 PM
Most viewers of the RTE Six One news probably don't know about what the 11% bond yield and hence the market is saying. 

The role of the Government is to give off an air of competence before they go over to the sports news.
It is all politics at this stage.

I wouldn't give any credibility to  any Government assurance.  Not unless the 10 year goes back down to 5%. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on May 30, 2011, 04:31:56 PM
Quote from: seafoid on May 30, 2011, 03:49:40 PM
Most viewers of the RTE Six One news probably don't know about what the 11% bond yield and hence the market is saying. 

The role of the Government is to give off an air of competence before they go over to the sports news. It is all politics at this stage.

I wouldn't give any credibility to  any Government assurance.  Not unless the 10 year goes back down to 5%.

Classic  ;D ;D ;D

Though I disagree a bit, I think the ordinary punter now knows quite a bit about defaults, restructuring (agreed defaults), bond rates and the like.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on May 31, 2011, 01:36:27 PM
Meanwhile in the real politik wolrd our masters concentrate on real stuff >:(
Gravy train still stops at all the right stations

Ivor Callely will get €63,000 a year for the rest of his life yet Richard Bruton targets the poorest workers

WHAT IS the price of a litre of milk? How much does a sliced pan cost? Are baked beans cheaper in Aldi or in Dunnes? What's the typical bus fare between a working-class city suburb and an industrial estate?

There are people who know the answers to these questions and there are those who don't. And the most nauseating sound in Ireland is the people who don't, pontificating about the people who do. It is smug, sleek people who live in a bubble of comfort and self-satisfaction deciding that the problem in this bloody country is that the women who clean their offices are paid too much.

This is a State in which Ivor Callely, who is so smart he couldn't quite figure out where he was living, is due to get more than a quarter of a million euro from the taxpayers over the next year as compensation for the fact that he can't get elected anymore. For the rest of his life, which could be about 40 years, Ivor will get a pension of €63,000 a year. With his lump sums that's a total of about €2.75 million.

Now let's consider a contract cleaner, whose feathered-bedded status apparently keeps Richard Bruton awake at night. She gets up before dawn or leaves home after dusk to scrub toilets, polish floors and pick up the mess of people she'll never even see.

I've never worked as a senator, so I can only imagine the stress that Ivor would have been under trying to work out all those complex expenses claims. But I have worked as a contract cleaner. It is miserable and soul-destroying, and I'd stick my neck out and say it's a lot harder on the human spirit than waffling in the Senate while doing a bit of property development on the side.

Under the wage-setting mechanisms that Richard Bruton sees as such a problem, the contract cleaner gets €370.50 a week and no pension. That's €770,000 over 40 years.

In other words, Ivor will get more than 3½ times for doing nothing at all what the cleaner will get for doing a miserable job in unsocial hours. And which of them does Richard Bruton see as a problem for Ireland, as the one whose over-inflated sense of self-worth must be brought down to size if we are to face reality? Not Ivor, apparently.

But then, Ivor, however repellent, is an individual. He's a person. He has a name. Contract cleaners don't have names. They are not people. They don't have kids. They are "units of labour cost".

They belong to what Charles Dickens in Hard Times calls "the multitude . . . generically called 'the Hands' – a race who would have found more favour with some people if providence had seen fit to make them only hands."

What do the Hands need with Sundays? There was a time when it suited the powers that be to grant them Sundays for their spiritual and moral edification. But now that time is gone, Sunday should be just another day for the Hands. Not, mind you, for the Brains who have important things to do on Sundays, like being with their kids or visiting their parents or going to a match or taking a walk.

But since the Hands do none of these things, it is clearly extortionate that they should demand extra money for giving up something that couldn't possibly mean anything to them.

What is the agenda in all of this? Ostensibly, it is to create jobs.

But as the Kevin Duffy-Frank Walsh report on the subject found, there is simply no evidence that attacking the wages of low-paid workers will lead to a substantial increase in employment.

The notion that the Irish low paid are living high on the hog is ludicrous. Hourly labour costs in the hospitality sector, for example, are already the third lowest in the EU. And the evidence shows that workers in the sectors covered by the system are just as likely to have taken wage cuts as those who are not; so much for the need for "flexibility".

Is the agenda, then, to do with the crisis in the public finances? Clearly not: wage cuts will cost the State revenue. According to the think tank Tasc (whose council I chair), the direct cost to the exchequer of cutting a worker from €9.27 an hour to the current minimum wage is €1,865 a year per worker. This is without considering the indirect costs of reduced economic demand and the growth in demand for social services as workers and their families struggle to cope on poverty wages.

So if it's not to do with jobs and it would make the crisis in the public finances worse, why are we even discussing wage cuts for the low paid? Because the crisis is an opportunity to dismantle the minimal protections that vulnerable working people have gained over the last century. Because the elite will sacrifice anyone to protect itself.

And because it allows sleek, smug people to look tough while the gravy train still stops at all the right stations.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on May 31, 2011, 02:34:17 PM
Quote from: Declan on May 31, 2011, 01:36:27 PMThe notion that the Irish low paid are living high on the hog is ludicrous. Hourly labour costs in the hospitality sector, for example, are already the third lowest in the EU.
Is that true I wonder?  I'd be extremely shocked if it was.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Rossfan on May 31, 2011, 06:01:31 PM
The prices remain among the highest in the EU so th'oul profit margins must be fairly padded  ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: ludermor on May 31, 2011, 06:16:50 PM
What prices? Im sure i read somewhere that hotels in ireland are now amoung the lowest in europe ( i dont know where i read this)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Rossfan on May 31, 2011, 06:18:45 PM
Nama ones perhaps.
However how much is the bit o' grub?
Eating out , even basic pub grub is outrageously expensive in this Country.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Rois on May 31, 2011, 07:29:36 PM
As someone who stayed in hotels in Dublin city centre from Jan 2010 to April 2011 on a very regular basis (and oddly enough, valuing loans for NAMA), I found that the price of hotels was probably reasonable enough when compared with London and Amsterdam (my only other comparators).  Loads of city centre hotels regularly booked out though - if you owned the Hilton down by the canal you'd be laughing all the way to the bank.  Of course the Hilton family already is...

As you say though, the expense comes with the food.  Price is in general so much higher than London.   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on May 31, 2011, 09:32:21 PM
Quote from: Rois on May 31, 2011, 07:29:36 PM
As someone who stayed in hotels in Dublin city centre from Jan 2010 to April 2011 on a very regular basis (and oddly enough, valuing loans for NAMA), I found that the price of hotels was probably reasonable enough when compared with London and Amsterdam (my only other comparators).  Loads of city centre hotels regularly booked out though - if you owned the Hilton down by the canal you'd be laughing all the way to the bank.  Of course the Hilton family already is...

As you say though, the expense comes with the food.  Price is in general so much higher than London.
Feck sake Rois, I hope you weren't one of the four members of staff seconded to nama at 60K per week, if you were, you better hope the president doesn't get to hear about it :D :D :D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on June 01, 2011, 07:08:10 PM
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1a61825a-8bb7-11e0-a725-00144feab49a.html#axzz1Np0CTswP

check out the graph showing intra eurozone debt and also the one with Central bank and Sov debt as % GDP

Events have, in short, thoroughly falsified the premises of the original design. If that is the design the dominant members still want, they must remove some of the existing members. Managing that process is, however, nigh on impossible. If, however, they want the eurozone to work as it is, at least three changes are inescapable. First, banking systems cannot be allowed to remain national. Banks must be backed by a common treasury or by the treasury of unimpeachably solvent member states. Second, cross-border crisis finance must be shifted from the ESCB to a sufficiently large public fund. Third, if the perils of sovereign defaults are to be avoided, as the ECB insists, finance of weak countries must be taken out of the market for years, perhaps even a decade. Such finance must be offered on manageable conditions in terms of the cost but stiff requirements in terms of the reforms. Whether the resulting system should be called a "transfer union" is uncertain: that depends on whether borrowers pay everything back (which I doubt). But it would surely be a "support union".
The eurozone confronts a choice between two intolerable options: either default and partial dissolution or open-ended official support. The existence of this choice proves that an enduring union will at the very least need deeper financial integration and greater fiscal support than was originally envisaged. How will the politics of these choices now play out? I truly have no idea. I wonder whether anybody does.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on June 03, 2011, 01:51:54 PM
Comment from Irisheconomy

BTW: Dan O'Brien as a piece today on the tax take to date. The positive €600 million increase over January-May 11 compared to the same period last year, is a figure worth reflecting upon. It is at the lower end of estimates for Tribunal legal costs. Note to Chopra et al.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on June 03, 2011, 02:49:34 PM
A selection of random headlines and articles from todays and yesterday's papers that shows how this country really works:

IT'S HARDLY surprising that Nama is continuing to attract some of the best brains in the estate-agency business given that a) the property market is dead and b) Nama salaries are astonishingly attractive. The latest recruits to Nama include Paul McNamara, a former director and head of valuations at Lisney; Marcus Wren, formerly director and retail expert at Bannon; and Robert Fay, an associate director and office specialist at HT Meagher O'Reilly.
All three will be badly missed by their respective firms, but who can blame them for defecting, given the handsome wages the State asset-management company is paying? Nama's chief executive Brendan McDonagh is believed to be on a salary of around €500,000 while 16 of his team earn more than €200,000 a year.
A further 22 earn between €150,000 and €200,000, while 65 earn between €100,000 and €150,000. According to another recent report, a further 200 earn up to €100,000.



Taoiseach's top advisers to be paid salary of €170,000
By Mary Regan, Political Correspondent
THE Taoiseach's top two advisers have been awarded salaries of almost €170,000 each – the same wages paid to senior Government ministers.



Crucial witnesses refuse to aid Anglo probe
By Seán McCárthaigh

MORE than 10 individuals are still refusing to co-operate fully with the long-running investigation into the collapse of Anglo Irish Bank.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: the Deel Rover on June 08, 2011, 01:44:28 PM
David McWilliams: Too much regulation will stifle our banking sector

Wednesday June 08 2011

Yesterday the IMF published its fifth review of Iceland's economy since the crisis began. The IMF declared Iceland's economic progress "impressive" and disbursed a loan tranche of $225m (€136m).

Now if this sounds weird to you, it should do. This is the Iceland that defaulted on all its bank bondholders and this is the Iceland that the IMF warned would be cut off unless it paid all its foreign bondholders. Yet just two years later, the IMF declares that Iceland's progress has been "impressive" and lends the country money!

Does this sound strange to you? Did not our establishment laugh at the Icelanders and warn that Iceland was a "basket case"? We were told that we were going to be "protected" by the euro in the crisis. Nothing could be further from the truth. The fact is that the euro is now a straitjacket and, without room to manoeuvre, our economy will not recover. Meanwhile Iceland has its own currency, gave two fingers to the bondholders and is moving ahead "impressively".

Back in that period when the Irish establishment was smearing Iceland as a basket case, I decided to visit the country to see what exactly a "basket case" looked and felt like. The first thing I noticed in March 2009 -- six months after the crisis -- was that the only people who appeared to be really worried in Reykjavik were English bankers in the foyer of the Hilton who were looking for their money back.

I put this to the acting finance minister of Iceland and he retorted: "We have no money, it is all gone." Then he paused and looked up at me and quipped without irony: "But we can give them fish, if they like."

He wasn't intending to be funny. Here was a man who had reached the point where he knew where his negotiating position was. The money was gone, they weren't going to borrow any more to pay old debts and it was up to the creditors to realise that, in the future, Iceland was going to depend on its own resources, and the bondholders -- who owned close to €60bn worth of debt -- would have to line up in an orderly queue and wait to see what they would get. This is normal business practice and this is what they applied.

When they realised how disastrous the banks' balance sheets were, the Icelanders decided that the thing to do with bankrupt banks was to put them into administration. In contrast, in Ireland and in Greece, under the delinquent governance of the ECB, this normal procedure has not been allowed to take place in order to "save" the euro.

So Ireland and Greece have tied themselves up in knots and condemned their people to deep recessions in order to save the currency that was supposed to give them protection.

Rather than allow capitalism take its route we, due to some sort of bizarre Euro-corporatism, are being penalised to save a currency. If the currency is made stronger by penalising its weaker members, how can such a currency be in the best interests of the whole European family?

But this is where we find ourselves. So what should we do?

Regular readers of this column will know that I have believed and written for over six years now that Ireland would be much better off outside the euro, but given that the establishment will never countenance such a move towards economic sovereignty, we must accept that we are locked into this currency arrangement until it blows apart, undermined by its own contradictions.

We must first accept that the Irish banks are bust. They might not function as proper banks ever again and we should stop propping them up.

There is guff being spread again by the establishment that a default on the banks' debts would destroy the banks. But this is nonsense and yet another example of voodoo economics.

The banks are in this moribund position not because of what they are doing now but because of what they did between 2004 and 2008. The problem is still the mad lending which went on in the boom. A default on the bondholders is the consequence of the banks being already bust -- not the thing which will cause the banks to go bust.

Not for the first time, the Irish mainstream has got its analysis back to front, spinning like mad in order to protect its own interests. In this sham, they are aided and abetted by the European elite.

But if we defaulted on the bondholders as Iceland did and let them fail, what might replace them?

Obviously new banks would replace the old banks. The new banks would have new capital, which would be safe and unencumbered by the mistakes of the past. If a new bank set up tomorrow, who wouldn't put their deposits in it?

But -- and now here's the snag -- a new bank must have a licence to set up. But how does it go about it? It applies to the Central Bank. However, the Central Bank is, at the moment, caught in the after-effects of its own failings. Having failed to regulate the banks in the boom, it is now in danger of over-regulating in the aftermath.

What I mean here is that it is over-compensating now for its previous failures by making capital requirements too high. This over-regulation is a mistake, the mirror image of its under-regulation mistake in the boom.

Over-regulation means that there are barriers to entry for new players, which are sufficient to deter them from coming in. But the over-regulation is unnecessary. It is a classic example of the generals fighting the last war. What we need now is to be open to business for new incumbents rather than saddling them with regulation, which is more about the Central Bank being prudent after the event.

This leaves us in the worst of all worlds: we had too little regulation when there were too many banks operating in Ireland and now we have too much regulation when there are too few!

Thus the credit crunch, to use a Bertieism, gets crunchier, amplifying the inappropriateness of the euro as our currency, weakening the economy and in so doing, from a political point of view, weakening the very European integration commitment our membership of the euro was supposed to enhance!

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Evil Genius on June 08, 2011, 02:27:01 PM
Quote from: the Deel Rover on June 08, 2011, 01:44:28 PM
David McWilliams: Too much regulation will stifle our banking sector

Wednesday June 08 2011

... Back in that period when the Irish establishment was smearing Iceland as a basket case, I decided to visit the country to see what exactly a "basket case" looked and felt like. The first thing I noticed in March 2009 -- six months after the crisis -- was that the only people who appeared to be really worried in Reykjavik were English bankers in the foyer of the Hilton who were looking for their money back.

I put this to the acting finance minister of Iceland and he retorted: "We have no money, it is all gone." Then he paused and looked up at me and quipped without irony: "But we can give them fish, if they like."
Hmmm.

I wonder did McWilliams think to ask the Finance Minister about "Icesave", an Icelandic Bank which attracted billions of pounds from ordinary British and Dutch savers (i.e. not wealthy bondholders), by offering especially lucrative interest rates, so that these savers might save up for a house, or educate their kids, or plan for their retirement etc?
For the FM surely knew about Icesave, seeing as there was such a kerfuffle when it went bust, and the (ahem) Icelandic Finance Ministry decided that as guarantor for Icesave, it would reimburse Icelandic savers, but not British or Dutch ones...

Quote from: the Deel Rover on June 08, 2011, 01:44:28 PMHe wasn't intending to be funny. Here was a man who had reached the point where he knew where his negotiating position was. The money was gone, they weren't going to borrow any more to pay old debts and it was up to the creditors to realise that, in the future, Iceland was going to depend on its own resources, and the bondholders -- who owned close to €60bn worth of debt -- would have to line up in an orderly queue and wait to see what they would get. This is normal business practice and this is what they applied.
Really? [bold]

For had McWilliams asked, the FM would have had to disclose that when the British and the Dutch put the squeeze on Iceland for its completely unlawful and discriminatory attempt to evade its responsibility towards all  of Icesave's investors, Iceland's Government agreed to borrow over £3bn from the international markets, so as to repay the British and Dutch Governments the sum they (Governments) had by now reimbursed to to their own nationals who had lost their savings in Icesave...

Quote from: the Deel Rover on June 08, 2011, 01:44:28 PMWhen they realised how disastrous the banks' balance sheets were, the Icelanders decided that the thing to do with bankrupt banks was to put them into administration. In contrast, in Ireland and in Greece, under the delinquent governance of the ECB, this normal procedure has not been allowed to take place in order to "save" the euro.
Regardless of the rights and wrongs of the ECB's approach to the Irish Republic and Greece, I imagine it (ECB) would point out that not only is Iceland not in the Eurozone, but it's not even in the EU. Therefore when the Icelandic Government was deciding its reaction to its own crisis, once it had discharged its legal obligation towards EU savers, it did not have any further responsibility towards the Euro. Whereas the ECB did have to consider the consequences towards the Euro when addressing the Irish and Greek crises.

It seems to me that McWilliams is cherry-picking the evidence which supports his own position, whilst wilfully ignoring that which does not suit.

A bit like the ECB, really... ::)

http://www.zimbio.com/Icesave/articles/irCfjWlD82s/Iceland+Agrees+Repayment+Icesave+Funds
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on June 08, 2011, 03:19:26 PM
- http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/aa3bbb64-91a4-11e0-b4a3-00144feab49a.html#ixzz1Oh6TylFL

The German government wants Greece to offer all holders of its sovereign bonds a seven-year extension of maturities as a condition of more financial aid from Berlin, Wolfgang Schäuble, finance minister, said in a letter to his European Union colleagues
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on June 08, 2011, 03:32:45 PM
Quote from: seafoid on June 08, 2011, 03:19:26 PM
- http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/aa3bbb64-91a4-11e0-b4a3-00144feab49a.html#ixzz1Oh6TylFL

The German government wants Greece to offer all holders of its sovereign bonds a seven-year extension of maturities as a condition of more financial aid from Berlin, Wolfgang Schäuble, finance minister, said in a letter to his European Union colleagues
sure with a bit of hyperinflation that'll suit the greeks down to the ground.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on June 11, 2011, 10:39:04 PM
Some interesting stuff over here about honohan on VB last night

http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2011/06/11/patrick-honohan-on-vincent-browne/


colm mccarthy post ( he of the report) hits nail on head ( imo):
June 11th, 2011 at 10:05 pm

QuoteJohn,

if the ECB screwed the Irish government in November, which is what I understood Patrick Honohan to be saying, they were screwing the sovereign bondholders. It is part of the deal with the troika that Ireland is to return to this market, implicitly in size, at a sustainable interest rate and at a reasonably long maturity, inside eighteen months. Let's say €5 bill for ten years at 5%. There now appears to be no realistic prospect of this happening.

If they did what the governor says they did, they deliberately (and I must assume consciously) subverted their own declared policy objective (return to the market) in order to avoid facing a resolution of the banking mess up front. All of this presumably at the behest of the French and German governments. I agree with you that Ireland did not have attractive unilateral options in November. But a resolution of the European banking crisis has been deferred through increasing sharply the risk of sovereign default in (at least) three Eurozone countries.

This is a shambles. So far as I know, the last European sovereign default was in 1952. All of this is being done to avoid explaining to continental European taxpayers that some of their banks are f****d, were poorly supervised and that the bill is due.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Orangemac on June 12, 2011, 09:11:12 AM
Ireland have been completely screwed by the ECB. Paying a higher interest rate than Greece who seem to have done frig all to rein in their deficit. We would have been safer going to the IMF on their own.

This will all come to a head long before 2013.

On the other hand Ireland still has a deficit of 17/18 bn despite all of the budget adjustments. Again there is talk of income tax increases and social welfare cuts. By all means there is a bit of fat that can be trimmed but ordinary people cannot be squeezed much more. If pockets are hit spending is down and so on.

No gov in Ireland has the balls to look at real reform. HSE,FAS, Quangos and probably the biggest of all, local councils. Cut the number of these by 30% and the number of councillers on those left by 30% to start with.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on June 12, 2011, 05:57:53 PM
Quote from: Orangemac on June 12, 2011, 09:11:12 AM
Ireland have been completely screwed by the ECB. Paying a higher interest rate than Greece who seem to have done frig all to rein in their deficit. We would have been safer going to the IMF on their own.

This will all come to a head long before 2013.

On the other hand Ireland still has a deficit of 17/18 bn despite all of the budget adjustments. Again there is talk of income tax increases and social welfare cuts. By all means there is a bit of fat that can be trimmed but ordinary people cannot be squeezed much more. If pockets are hit spending is down and so on.

No gov in Ireland has the balls to look at real reform. HSE,FAS, Quangos and probably the biggest of all, local councils. Cut the number of these by 30% and the number of councillers on those left by 30% to start with.

This is where the problem is.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on June 13, 2011, 10:06:43 PM
Greece downgraded by S&P
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fc261efe-95de-11e0-ba20-00144feab49a.html#ixzz1PBzVvcpO

Standard & Poor's cut Greece's long-term sovereign credit rating by three notches to triple C, a sign the rating agency thinks it will be forced to downgrade Athens to default – or D – as private creditors are likely to be involved in the country's next bail-out.


Greece is now the lowest-rated sovereign in the world, below Ecuador, Jamaica, Pakistan and Grenada

And Roubini reckons the Euro will break up. Even a default wouldn't help competitiveness


http://blogs.ft.com/the-a-list/2011/06/13/the-eurozone-heads-for-break-up/

Nouriel RoubiniJune 13, 2011

The eurozone heads for break up

The muddle-through approach to the eurozone crisis has failed to resolve the fundamental problems of economic and competitiveness divergence within the union. If this continues the euro will move towards disorderly debt workouts, and eventually a break-up of the monetary union itself, as some of the weaker members crash out.

The Economic and Monetary Union never fully satisfied the conditions for an optimal currency area. Instead its leaders hoped that their lack of monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies would in turn see an acceleration of structural reforms. These, it was hoped, would see productivity and growth rates converge.

The reality turned out to be different. Paradoxically the halo effect of early interest rate convergence allowed a greater divergence in fiscal policies. A reckless lack of discipline in countries such as Greece and Portugal was matched only by the build-up of asset bubbles in others like Spain and Ireland. Structural reforms were delayed, while wage growth relative to productivity growth diverged. The result was a loss of competitiveness on the periphery.

All successful monetary unions have eventually been associated with a political and fiscal union. But European moves toward political union have stalled, while moves towards fiscal union would require significant federal central revenues, and also the widespread issuance of euro bonds — where the taxes of German (and other core) taxpayers are not backstopping only their country's debt but also the debt of the members of the periphery. Core taxpayers are unlikely to accept this.

Eurozone debt reduction or "reprofiling" will help to resolve the issue of excessive debt in some insolvent economies. But it will do nothing to restore economic convergence, which requires the restoration of competitiveness convergence. Without this the periphery will simply stagnate.

Here the options are limited. The euro could fall sharply in value towards – say – parity with the US dollar, to restore competitiveness to the periphery; but a sharp fall of the euro is unlikely given the trade strength of Germany and the hawkish policies of the European Central Bank.

The German route — reforms to increase productivity growth and keep a lid on wage growth — will not work either. In the short run such reforms actually tend to reduce growth and it took more than a decade for Germany to restore its competitiveness, a horizon that is way too long for periphery economies that need growth soon.

Deflation is a third option, but this is also associated with persistent recession. Argentina tried this route, but after three years of an ever deepening slump it gave up, and decided to default and exit its currency board peg. Even if deflation was achieved, the balance sheet effect would  increase the real burden of private and public debts. All the talk by the ECB and the European Union of an internal depreciation is thus faulty, while the necessary fiscal austerity still has – in the short run – a negative effect on growth.

So given these three options are unlikely, there is really only one other way to restore competitiveness and growth on the periphery: leave the euro, go back to national currencies and achieve a massive nominal and real depreciation. After all, in all those emerging market financial crises that restored growth a move to flexible exchange rates was necessary and unavoidable on top of official liquidity, austerity and reform and, in some cases, debt restructuring and reduction.

Of course today the idea of leaving the euro is treated as inconceivable, even in Athens and Lisbon. Exit would impose big trade losses on the rest of the eurozone, via major real depreciation and capital losses on the creditor core, in much the same way as Argentina's "pesification" of its dollar debt did during its last crisis.

Yet scenarios that are treated as inconceivable today may not be so far-fetched five years from now, especially if some of the periphery economies stagnate. The eurozone was glued together by the convergence of low real interest rates sustaining growth, the hope that reforms could maintain convergence; and the prospect of eventual fiscal and political union. But now convergence is gone, reform is stalled, while fiscal and political union is a distant dream.

Debt restructuring will happen. The question is when (sooner or later) and how (orderly or disorderly). But even debt reduction will not be sufficient to restore competitiveness and growth. Yet if this cannot be achieved, the option of exiting the monetary union will become dominant: the benefits of staying in will be lower than the benefits of exiting, however bumpy or disorderly that exit may end up being
.


Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on June 14, 2011, 09:27:34 AM
Debt freakshow run by phoney lion tamers
Government's submissiveness to the 'troika' rewarded with the contempt that utter subservience deserves, writes FINTAN O'TOOLE

THIS WEEK, the Government marks 100 days in office and zero days in power.

The American writer Michael Lewis described the Irish bank bailout as a process of "normalising a freakshow". This is still, at heart, the Government's job. In the last year of the Fianna Fáil/Green administration, the freakshow was starkly evident. Everybody, including most of the cabinet, knew that the government was involved in a surreal pretence. The cries of "crisis, what crisis?" were Blatteresque in their absurdity. The only thing that's changed now is that the absurdity seems normal.

The effect of the general election was to send out the clowns and bring on the phoney lion tamers. The new Coalition has a whip in one hand and a chair in the other. It prods the bedraggled lion of State into doing a few half-hearted tricks of fiscal discipline while letting out the odd yelp of protest about punitive interest rates. But it's still essentially the same circus with the same ringmasters from the European Central Bank.

It is a relief to have a Government with some energy and decency and with good intentions in most areas. Fine Gael and Labour still get enormous public credit for the simple act of not being Fianna Fáil. But their complete capitulation to the ECB – the abject abandonment of any pretence at renegotiating the "troika" deal – makes good intentions largely irrelevant.

Let's remind ourselves what the big story is. Boomtime Ireland was a debt junkie and the international financial markets were the pushers who fed this country's addiction to cheap money. Because they got greedy and bought into the Celtic Tiger hype, German, French and British banks have an exposure to Ireland of $510 billion (€355 billion).

To put this into perspective, let's look at another country that had a mad property bubble and is now in deep trouble: Spain. The Spanish population is over 10 times that of Ireland. But the exposure of those same German, French and British banks to Spain is $620 billion. Proportionally, the big EU banks are on the hook to Ireland almost 10 times more than they are to Spain.

If this is the problem, the "solution" is similarly disproportionate. The German, British and French banks want to escape the consequences of their own greed and folly. The primary purpose of the so-called "bailout" is to allow them to do this by turning the Irish State into a giant debt-servicing agency, regardless of the social or economic consequences for Ireland itself. In order to achieve this, each citizen in Ireland has to carry a share of this private debt that is vastly out of proportion to anything that has ever been attempted in a developed economy.

Again, let's remind ourselves of the figures. The State has mobilised an astonishing amount of resources to shore up a failed banking system and ensure it can meet its obligations to foreign bankers and investors. There's €70 billion to recapitalise the banks; €33 billion to buy up their bad property loans through Nama; and €70 billion in liquidity borrowed on their behalf by the Irish Central Bank. That's €173 billion: €96,000 for every worker in the State. Most of this – €10 billion of the recapitalisation and all of the Nama funds and liquidity – is expected to be repaid. The fact remains, though, that in the midst of a deep economic crisis, every worker is underwriting close to €100,000 for the banks.

If anyone had suggested three years ago that this could – let alone should – be done, they'd have been awarded honorary citizenship of la-la land. Yet it is now almost beyond discussion. It is simply the way things are.

In my most pessimistic predictions after the election, I suggested that the new government would be given the token concession of a 1 per cent cut in the interest rate on the so-called bailout and fobbed off with promises of a future review. It seemed unimaginable that the troika would not feel obliged to make some formal gesture of acknowledgment that there had been a democratic election in which people had voted overwhelmingly for a renegotiation.

But it didn't. The Government has now given up even on the pathetic hope of being given a sympathetic pat on the head and a lollipop to keep it from screaming. Its submissiveness has been rewarded with the contempt that utter subservience deserves and inevitably receives.

The Government's only response to this freakshow is to avoid talking about it – hence the panic when Leo Varadkar stated the bloody obvious. The new line is that the Government will wait patiently until 2013, when the Germans have promised a new regime for the resolution of banking crises. The problem is that by then we will have shelled out vast amounts of money we don't have.

By the end of this year alone, another €12 billion of unguaranteed, unsecured senior bank debt will have been repaid by a Government that is imposing obscene conditions on carers, the sick and disabled and vulnerable children.

That's what it means to be administering a country on behalf of the ECB.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Main Street on June 14, 2011, 01:43:59 PM
Quote from: Evil Genius on June 08, 2011, 02:27:01 PM

I wonder did McWilliams think to ask the Finance Minister about "Icesave", an Icelandic Bank which attracted billions of pounds from ordinary British and Dutch savers (i.e. not wealthy bondholders), by offering especially lucrative interest rates, so that these savers might save up for a house, or educate their kids, or plan for their retirement etc?
For the FM surely knew about Icesave, seeing as there was such a kerfuffle when it went bust, and the (ahem) Icelandic Finance Ministry decided that as guarantor for Icesave, it would reimburse Icelandic savers, but not British or Dutch ones...

Quote from: the Deel Rover on June 08, 2011, 01:44:28 PMHe wasn't intending to be funny. Here was a man who had reached the point where he knew where his negotiating position was. The money was gone, they weren't going to borrow any more to pay old debts and it was up to the creditors to realise that, in the future, Iceland was going to depend on its own resources, and the bondholders -- who owned close to €60bn worth of debt -- would have to line up in an orderly queue and wait to see what they would get. This is normal business practice and this is what they applied.
Really? [bold]

For had McWilliams asked, the FM would have had to disclose that when the British and the Dutch put the squeeze on Iceland for its completely unlawful and discriminatory attempt to evade its responsibility towards all  of Icesave's investors, Iceland's Government agreed to borrow over £3bn from the international markets, so as to repay the British and Dutch Governments the sum they (Governments) had by now reimbursed to to their own nationals who had lost their savings in Icesave...

Quote from: the Deel Rover on June 08, 2011, 01:44:28 PMWhen they realised how disastrous the banks' balance sheets were, the Icelanders decided that the thing to do with bankrupt banks was to put them into administration. In contrast, in Ireland and in Greece, under the delinquent governance of the ECB, this normal procedure has not been allowed to take place in order to "save" the euro.
Regardless of the rights and wrongs of the ECB's approach to the Irish Republic and Greece, I imagine it (ECB) would point out that not only is Iceland not in the Eurozone, but it's not even in the EU. Therefore when the Icelandic Government was deciding its reaction to its own crisis, once it had discharged its legal obligation towards EU savers, it did not have any further responsibility towards the Euro. Whereas the ECB did have to consider the consequences towards the Euro when addressing the Irish and Greek crises.




A bit like the ECB, really... ::)

http://www.zimbio.com/Icesave/articles/irCfjWlD82s/Iceland+Agrees+Repayment+Icesave+Funds

David Mac's article is very good and his analysis which included a concise and simplified overview of how Iceland dealt with the private bondholder debt.

The other issue which you refer to is the fallout from the Icesave deposit scam carried out by Landsbanki in the UK and NL (Netherlands)
The law has not been broken by the Iceland state in relation to Icesave scam. The old Landsbanki has assets in the UK and NL which will cover the deposit insurance payment.
The payments from the bankrupt Landsbanki estate have of course no real effect on whether the state guarantee is required, at least not in the legal sense.
The question of Icesave will be determined by the EFTA Court and the Icelandic Supreme Court, based on how they interpret legally the EC Directive and the Icelandic laws that apply, respectively.
But, while these cases are winding their way through the courts, for the next few years, the Landsbanki estate will likely proceed to pay out the bulk of the deposit guarantee amounts back to the UK/NL governments as priority claimants. So those payments will have the practical effect of leaving the courts to decide only the potential damages and interest, should Iceland end up loosing their case.
That is the  worst legal outcome scenario for Iceland
If on the other hand Iceland wins their case, there will of course be no damages and/or interest payments required. The Landsbanki estate payments will then be the only ones that the UK/NL governments will receive. So in the end, those payments can therefore end up mattering quite a lot for the UK/NL.





Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: whiskeysteve on June 14, 2011, 02:51:44 PM
Keep an eye on the news on Greece tomorrow, the parliament is holding 1 final vote on whether to agree to the latest bailout terms or not.

2 outcomes of this: Rejection and immediate default or acceptance and more savage austerity.

As this will coincide with a general workers strike and a mass protest outside the parliament buildings, this could get violent.

There are widespread internet reports of foreign workers being hired in to clear out an old evacuation tunnel from the parliament buildings, quite conceivable when you consider that Argentian politicians had to be evacuated from their own building by helicopter during their economic crisis.

Also behold the plundering of their national assets: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304906004576369572348921238.html
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on June 14, 2011, 09:16:40 PM
http://fiscallyresponsiblefairytales.blogspot.com/2010/06/emperors-new-tree.html (http://fiscallyresponsiblefairytales.blogspot.com/2010/06/emperors-new-tree.html)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on June 14, 2011, 10:32:50 PM
This was on irish economy. What a joke FF were in government

1.   hoganmahew Says:
June 14th, 2011 at 5:51 pm
@Michael Hennigan
My understanding of the 'conversation' with M. Trichet was that a phone message was left on the DoF answer machine on the Saturday as M. Trichet couldn't get through to anyone. Mr. Lenihan was at a FF fund raiser at the races... this from Mr. Lenihan in an RTE documentary.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDN7NiEdNJ0
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: armaghniac on June 15, 2011, 06:15:40 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0615/anglo-business.html

Finance Minister Michael Noonan has said Ireland will go to our European partners with a plan to impose significant losses on some senior bondholders in Anglo Irish Bank and Irish Nationwide Building Society.

He was speaking in Washington after meeting the IMF and the US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.

Mr Noonan said the Government will seek to impose losses on some senior bondholders in Anglo Irish Bank. He said that around €3.5 billion in senior unsecured, unguaranteed bonds issued by Anglo Irish Bank and Irish Nationwide Building Society should have losses imposed on them.

Mr Noonan said he had discussed this with the IMF, who supported the strategy.

The Finance Minister said these banks are no longer normal entities and are more like warehouses for bad debts. In that context, he would be going to our European partners to propose significant cuts in the money to be paid to the bondholders.

Mr Noonan also revealed that he had asked Mr Geithner to support Ireland's effort to cut the interest rate paid on the European parts of our bailout programme. He said Mr Geithner agreed to support Ireland's effort and would speak to the French in connection with this.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on June 15, 2011, 07:11:23 PM
QuoteHe said Mr Geithner agreed to support Ireland's effort and would speak to the French in connection with this

This is interesting. I can't find a quote from Geithner though.



Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on June 21, 2011, 11:32:21 AM
Private eye from 2008 but still good today now that the markets appear to have recovered from worries about Greece...

World stock markets today staged a massive rally/nosedived spectacularly as a massive injection of Government money into a failing bank/fears that a failing bank could have to be propped up with Government money signaled what most observers agreed was the beginning of the end of the credit crunch/the beginning of the real credit crunch meaning that we can now look forward to the complete recovery of the global economy/the end of the world as we know it
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on June 21, 2011, 12:55:05 PM
Quote from: seafoid on June 21, 2011, 11:32:21 AM
Private eye from 2008 but still good today now that the markets appear to have recovered from worries about Greece...

World stock markets today staged a massive rally/nosedived spectacularly as a massive injection of Government money into a failing bank/fears that a failing bank could have to be propped up with Government money signaled what most observers agreed was the beginning of the end of the credit crunch/the beginning of the real credit crunch meaning that we can now look forward to the complete recovery of the global economy/the end of the world as we know it

+-1
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on June 22, 2011, 11:20:01 AM
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/22/us-pimco-greece-idUSTRE75L0HO20110622 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/22/us-pimco-greece-idUSTRE75L0HO20110622)

PIMCO's El-Erian predicts Greece, others will default
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on June 22, 2011, 11:27:29 AM
QuotePIMCO's El-Erian predicts Greece, others will default

Ah sure what would they know anyway ;)

Here's an interesting persepctive on it from a Greek
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/06/alex-andreou-democracy-vs-mythology-%E2%80%93-the-battle-in-syntagma-square.html (http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/06/alex-andreou-democracy-vs-mythology-%E2%80%93-the-battle-in-syntagma-square.html)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on June 23, 2011, 02:04:09 PM
From the "You couldn't make it up" department


http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2011/0623/1224299456972.html

ALLIED IRISH Banks has sold its half share in a Bulgarian commercial lender for €100,000 – just 3½ years after paying €216 million for the investment.



how many of the top 100 senior managers in AIB in 2007 are still with the company ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on June 24, 2011, 04:04:11 PM
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4dfcca24-9e46-11e0-8e61-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1QCpwqPqq


Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England, warned on Friday that stopgap measures to extend new loans to countries such as Greece, Portugal and Ireland would not solve the eurozone debt crisis.Presenting the Bank's first analysis of financial stability in the UK banking system after the formation of the new financial policy committee, he said the eurozone debt crisis was a crisis of solvency that would not be resolved by extending new loans.
"Right through this crisis from the very beginning ... an awful lot of people wanted to believe that it was a crisis of liquidity," Mr King said. "It wasn't, it isn't. And until we accept that, we will never find an answer to it. It was a crisis based on solvency ... initially financial institutions and now sovereigns."
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on June 24, 2011, 08:36:23 PM
The Irish 10 year bond yield is now up to 12% .
If the ECB wasn't keeping the banks going this plus a bit would be the base rate for anyone with a mortgage. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on June 24, 2011, 09:50:57 PM
Quote from: seafoid on June 24, 2011, 08:36:23 PM
The Irish 10 year bond yield is now up to 12% .
If the ECB wasn't keeping the banks going this plus a bit would be the base rate for anyone with a mortgage.
it was well above that in the late 80's early 90's, I'm fairly sure it hit 21 or 22% for a few months - the only saving grace was that the capital borrowed was rarely more than 5 figures and normally low 5 figures.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on June 25, 2011, 09:16:39 AM
Quote from: Bogball XV on June 24, 2011, 09:50:57 PM
Quote from: seafoid on June 24, 2011, 08:36:23 PM
The Irish 10 year bond yield is now up to 12% .
If the ECB wasn't keeping the banks going this plus a bit would be the base rate for anyone with a mortgage.
it was well above that in the late 80's early 90's, I'm fairly sure it hit 21 or 22% for a few months - the only saving grace was that the capital borrowed was rarely more than 5 figures and normally low 5 figures.

The government could still access the market back then.  It doesn't look good for a 2012 NTMA reentry to the market.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on June 25, 2011, 06:56:58 PM
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GSPG10YR:IND (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GSPG10YR:IND)

Spain 10 year now at 5.68%. We went to the IMF at 7%.

After flying very slowly for nearly 3 years, the merde could be now about to make contact with the fan.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on June 27, 2011, 11:48:42 AM
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GSPG10YR:IND (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GSPG10YR:IND)

Spain 5.72% today and rising.

Our bailout package is at an average of 5.8%.

Not long left now, maybe weeks or a couple of months.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on June 27, 2011, 12:46:54 PM
The bond markets want a deal in Greece, Muppet.
Spain isn't necessarily in trouble but until there is some certainty on the next
few months nobody is buying their bonds.

Watch if there is a deal this week and see a big risk rebound. It's all a game.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on June 27, 2011, 10:45:30 PM
Another triumph for the bailout 


http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/0627/breaking49.html

"Irish Life and Permanent will be effectively nationalised with the injection of up to €3.8 billion in State funds by the end of next month, the company has confirmed."

They couldn't even sell Irish Life.

What a total shambles. And what a wonderful policy it has been to shift all the problems of the banks on the sovereign.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: PadraicHenryPearse on June 27, 2011, 10:53:41 PM
IL &P do not want to be or need to be nationalised this is being forced on them by the government. Ptsb will be the most capitalised bank in europe after this 4bn but still not able to lend to anyone. IL & P have done their best to resist nama and government involvement but have been dragged into this mess by every other irish bank and now they will the probably let disappear once under government control while the "two pillars" get away with it
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on June 27, 2011, 10:55:11 PM
Quote from: seafoid on June 27, 2011, 10:45:30 PM
Another triumph for the bailout 


http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/0627/breaking49.html

"Irish Life and Permanent will be effectively nationalised with the injection of up to €3.8 billion in State funds by the end of next month, the company has confirmed."

They couldn't even sell Irish Life.

What a total shambles. And what a wonderful policy it has been to shift all the problems of the banks on the sovereign.

Which is the exact opposite of what the Greeks did.
Moodys warn severe Greek bank cash shortage due accelerating deposit flight (http://www.politics.ie/economy/163959-moodys-warns-severe-greek-bank-cash-shortage-due-accelerating-deposit-flight.html)

Also There's Another €50 Billion Hole In The Spanish Banking System Due To Bad Real Estate Loans (http://www.businessinsider.com/spains-banking-sector-stress-tests-2011-6)

Can't help but feel like this collapse is beginning to speed up.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Cde on June 27, 2011, 11:06:23 PM
the sooner the better, it's been dragged out now for 4 years. We cannot start climbing until we hit the bottom and it seems that all we are doing is dragging out the inevitable.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on June 28, 2011, 10:27:42 AM
Very supportive words from Sarkozy
. It is everyone for themselves.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/0628/breaking1.html

"Pledging to exercise control over France's own debt, he said: "I wasn't elected so that France would experience the agony of Greece, Ireland and Portugal."

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: whiskeysteve on June 29, 2011, 02:40:34 PM
Came within a hairs breadth of the first (official) PIG default in the last hour. The Greeks just passed their bill for the latest tranche of money and austerity by 4 votes... A ruling party deputy got the chop immediately after for voting no, leaving them with 154 of the 300 parlimentary seats.

That they came so close to default today shows that this is the very last time they will kick the can down the road.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/blog/2011/jun/29/greece-austerity-vote-demonstrations
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: highorlow on June 29, 2011, 03:11:39 PM
QuoteThe Greeks just passed their bill for the latest tranche of money and austerity by 4 votes

It was 17 votes as far as I read?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on July 05, 2011, 09:22:01 PM


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ff7ff5e6-a738-11e0-b6d4-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1RGOAafeV



QuoteLast week, in the absence of any cogent initiative from anyone else, France's banks – the biggest private-sector holders of Greek government bonds outside Greece – came up with a blueprint for what such a restructuring should look like.

There were three main points. There should be a target of rolling over a net 50 per cent of the €100bn or so outstanding debt due to mature by the end of 2014. There should also be an insurance scheme, collateralised with bonds issued by an authority such as the European financial stability facility. And the rolled-over bonds should pay interest at up to 8 per cent.

However, voices of dissent on the terms have grown louder in recent days. In particular, other banks marshalled for the meeting by the Institute of International Finance have begun to suggest privately that the French scheme is too obviously self-serving for the banks – with high interest rates and a low participation target.

Self serving should never be obvious.

Who holds the CDS.?

http://streetlightblog.blogspot.com/2011/06/betting-on-pigs.html

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vUgfWeE9R8c/Tez85LZyCMI/AAAAAAAAAlE/eUBx4QJdzjc/s400/default%2Binsurance1.PNG)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on July 07, 2011, 03:41:26 PM
Quote from: muppet on July 07, 2011, 02:37:41 PM
Quote from: seafoid on July 07, 2011, 01:04:42 PM
Irish 10 year yield now up to 13%

God, that was quick.

Italy has broken the (unsustainable) 5% barrier. Now at 5.17%. Spain is steady around 5.65%. Spain will shortly break the bank imho if you pardon the pun.

This has been going on for nearly 3 years and there is no credible co-ordinated plan from the EU. This is why the rating agencies are savaging us. For once they are right.

Portugal got a bailout 8 weeks ago. Now Moody's have assigned put them at junk status.
What a joke. What else were the Portuguese supposed to do ?
I think you have some serious players short selling Euro bonds to make a massive profit when
the EU announces whatever it is the market wants. The rating agencies are in the same game.   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: whiskeysteve on July 11, 2011, 03:17:15 PM
spain 10 year on verge of breaking 6% but big news seems to be Italy which has soared to 5.5%, i.e. they are close to being locked out of the market. i think the combinded bailout required is in the region of 2 trillion?, i.e. not happening

the arse is falling out of the US economy also with unemployment at record highs and increasing numbers of those on benefits being thrown to the wolves (benefits stopped after 99 weeks jobless). The US will crash either by hyperinflation (QE3, QE4, etc) or by facing up to reality and defaulting (national debt stands at 14 trillion dollars)

I am sorry to say it, but as the entire global economy is moving slowly towards collapse. I really do believe thousands of people will be starving in the streets of many western nations by 2013, it is not a question of social welfare being cutback but razed to the ground. I think many educated onlookers believe this in the back of their minds but cant bring themselves to say it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on July 11, 2011, 03:19:39 PM
Exactly how much Whiskey do you have Steve and where do you live?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: whiskeysteve on July 11, 2011, 03:38:13 PM
Quote from: muppet on July 11, 2011, 03:19:39 PM
Exactly how much Whiskey do you have Steve and where do you live?

Funny you should ask that Muppet but my auld boy has a big wooden box of the stuff so if there is an economic apocolypse I will be OK.

The doyens tell you to buy gold but I think i will get by bartering with my fathers whiskey.

When i'm not following the continual armageddon of Derry club football I live on the internet, not much good it does me neither.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on July 11, 2011, 04:37:08 PM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on July 11, 2011, 03:38:13 PM
Quote from: muppet on July 11, 2011, 03:19:39 PM
Exactly how much Whiskey do you have Steve and where do you live?

Funny you should ask that Muppet but my auld boy has a big wooden box of the stuff so if there is an economic apocolypse I will be OK.

The doyens tell you to buy gold but I think i will get by bartering with my fathers whiskey.

When i'm not following the continual armageddon of Derry club football I live on the internet, not much good it does me neither.

Too late for gold now.

Put your money into Copper(s).
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: whiskeysteve on July 11, 2011, 04:55:44 PM
Quote from: muppet on July 11, 2011, 04:37:08 PM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on July 11, 2011, 03:38:13 PM
Quote from: muppet on July 11, 2011, 03:19:39 PM
Exactly how much Whiskey do you have Steve and where do you live?

Funny you should ask that Muppet but my auld boy has a big wooden box of the stuff so if there is an economic apocolypse I will be OK.

The doyens tell you to buy gold but I think i will get by bartering with my fathers whiskey.

When i'm not following the continual armageddon of Derry club football I live on the internet, not much good it does me neither.

Too late for gold now.

Put your money into Copper(s).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6LX066DdRu8

Never gets old
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on July 11, 2011, 06:52:56 PM
Quote from: seafoid on July 11, 2011, 06:47:06 PM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on July 11, 2011, 03:17:15 PM
spain 10 year on verge of breaking 6% but big news seems to be Italy which has soared to 5.5%, i.e. they are close to being locked out of the market. i think the combinded bailout required is in the region of 2 trillion?, i.e. not happening

the arse is falling out of the US economy also with unemployment at record highs and increasing numbers of those on benefits being thrown to the wolves (benefits stopped after 99 weeks jobless). The US will crash either by hyperinflation (QE3, QE4, etc) or by facing up to reality and defaulting (national debt stands at 14 trillion dollars)

I am sorry to say it, but as the entire global economy is moving slowly towards collapse. I really do believe thousands of people will be starving in the streets of many western nations by 2013, it is not a question of social welfare being cutback but razed to the ground. I think many educated onlookers believe this in the back of their minds but cant bring themselves to say it.

A dose of inflation will sort us out, whiskeysteve. The big collapse isn't going to happen this time around.

Bbbbut the prudent Germans, the ones who defaulted twice in the last century, would have their prudent savings wiped out to save the reckless PIIGS! Nein!

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on July 11, 2011, 08:44:55 PM
Wow!

http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/social-welfare-spend-up-15-to-208bn-last-year-512380.html (http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/social-welfare-spend-up-15-to-208bn-last-year-512380.html)

"Continuing to reflect the trend of recent years and re-affirming the Government's commitment to the welfare of all those in need of support, social welfare programme expenditure increased to €20.8bn in 2010 - an increase of 1.5% over the previous year.

As posted on another thread here is our income tax take for 2010: €11.3bn

http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/exchequerstatements/2010/analysisenddectax.pdf (http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/exchequerstatements/2010/analysisenddectax.pdf)

We are giving out nearly twice as much social welfare as we take in as income tax. That is before the other departments such as Health, Education, Justice, Defense etc are paid for.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: armaghniac on July 11, 2011, 10:33:36 PM
There is considerable attention to public pay in the 26 counties, but this is significantly less than is spent of welfare and a third of pay comes straight back into to the exchequer in income tax. If all public services, other than welfare, were abolished, it would hardly cover the deficit.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on July 12, 2011, 12:07:42 PM
Ireland: (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?h=200&w=280&range=1y&type=gp_line&cfg=BQuoteComp_10.xml&ticks=GIGB10YR%3AIND&img=png)

Spain: (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?h=200&w=280&range=1y&type=gp_line&cfg=BQuoteComp_10.xml&ticks=GSPG10YR%3AIND&img=png)

Italy:  (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?h=200&w=280&range=1y&type=gp_line&cfg=BQuoteComp_10.xml&ticks=GBTPGR10%3AIND&img=png)

3 years ago we heard 'stay out of the PIIGS'. 3 Years ago we heard the Irish Central Bank banning short selling of bank stocks. We then heard the Irish banks and the regulator say that they were fully capitalised. 3 years of the EU/ECB doing as little as possible and now we have arrived at Italy banning short selling of bank shares.

Well at least it might finally be about to pop but we probably shouldn't underestimate their ability to kick the can down the road a couple of more times. In fairness they have plenty of practice.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Denn Forever on July 12, 2011, 12:22:48 PM
In those graphs, what does the Y-axis signify?  From my reading, Ireland is in much better or worse position than Spain or Italy.  Which is it?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on July 12, 2011, 12:54:43 PM
the y axis is the yield on a 10 year bond. It is the rate the government would have to offer to get money in the market based on current prices. Ireland would have to pay over 13%.
It is also the rate mortgage holders would be paying if the ECB wasn't helping out.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on July 12, 2011, 12:59:44 PM
Quote from: Denn Forever on July 12, 2011, 12:22:48 PM
In those graphs, what does the Y-axis signify?  From my reading, Ireland is in much better or worse position than Spain or Italy.  Which is it?

Y-axis id borrowing rate on the open bond market.

Ireland would be borrowing at over 13% interest rates. Not great.

>5% is considered unsustainable for any length hence the panic over Spain and Italy going above it.

Ireland were forced to borrow from the IMF at 7% and our we now consider that deal (5.8%) unsustainable. But it bought a few more months. The second bail out of Greece is lunacy but was to buy a few more months and no doubt what they do this week or next will be to buy Italy and Spain a few more months.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on July 12, 2011, 02:25:41 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on July 11, 2011, 10:33:36 PM
There is considerable attention to public pay in the 26 counties, but this is significantly less than is spent of welfare and a third of pay comes straight back into to the exchequer in income tax. If all public services, other than welfare, were abolished, it would hardly cover the deficit.
Probably 75% of welfare comes back in to the exchequer in the form of excise duties. :D

I'm only half joking there, welfare transfers are ludicrously high and many on here have commented on that over the past few years, but, one would imagine that most of the money paid out is spent and almost immediately at that.  The main exceptions that I can think of are child benefit and old age pensions - in other words the non-means tested transfers. 
I know quite a few families where the child benefit goes straight into an account for the childer and lies there until they hit 18 and need it for 'college books'.  Similarily with the state pensions, many's the grandparent who throws this into an account to give to the grandchildren at a later date.
It would be extremely easy to at least partially redress this inequity by making these (and indeed) all transfers taxable, but can you see an irish govt doing that?  Me either, far better trying to pretend we're on the road to salvation by cutting 4 billion a year off spending (might not be too easy from here on in though)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on July 13, 2011, 08:52:33 AM
Ireland downgraded to junk by Moodys.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/0713/breaking4.html

You can now earn 18% on Irish 2 year bonds. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on July 13, 2011, 11:11:11 AM
Meanwhile, the State will have to shell out €116bn to pay for the pensions of all existing civil servants, Public Expenditure and Reform Minister Brendan Howlin told the new Dail Select Committee that scrutinises spending in this area.
The figure, which is more than twice what the Government spends in a year, is not included in the calculations for the national debt, Mr Howlin admitted.


More confirmation of the fact that we are Fubared
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on July 13, 2011, 11:55:40 AM
Quote from: Declan on July 13, 2011, 11:11:11 AM
Meanwhile, the State will have to shell out €116bn to pay for the pensions of all existing civil servants, Public Expenditure and Reform Minister Brendan Howlin told the new Dail Select Committee that scrutinises spending in this area.
The figure, which is more than twice what the Government spends in a year, is not included in the calculations for the national debt, Mr Howlin admitted.


More confirmation of the fact that we are Fubared
but over how many years are you talking?  It's always been the norm (throughout the western world) that state pension obligations are accounted for on a current accounting basis has it not? 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on July 13, 2011, 12:00:33 PM
Quotebut over how many years are you talking?  It's always been the norm (throughout the western world) that state pension obligations are accounted for on a current accounting basis has it not

Nor sure BB. I know my highlighting might be oversimplyfing the accounting/actuarial practices etc but the figures are fairly frightening all the same.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on July 13, 2011, 12:20:35 PM
Quote from: Declan on July 13, 2011, 12:00:33 PM
Quotebut over how many years are you talking?  It's always been the norm (throughout the western world) that state pension obligations are accounted for on a current accounting basis has it not

Nor sure BB. I know my highlighting might be oversimplyfing the accounting/actuarial practices etc but the figures are fairly frightening all the same.

Where'd you get that from?  Not disputing that we're fubared btw!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on July 13, 2011, 01:25:30 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on July 12, 2011, 02:25:41 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on July 11, 2011, 10:33:36 PM
There is considerable attention to public pay in the 26 counties, but this is significantly less than is spent of welfare and a third of pay comes straight back into to the exchequer in income tax. If all public services, other than welfare, were abolished, it would hardly cover the deficit.
Probably 75% of welfare comes back in to the exchequer in the form of excise duties. :D

I'm only half joking there, welfare transfers are ludicrously high and many on here have commented on that over the past few years, but, one would imagine that most of the money paid out is spent and almost immediately at that.  The main exceptions that I can think of are child benefit and old age pensions - in other words the non-means tested transfers. 
I know quite a few families where the child benefit goes straight into an account for the childer and lies there until they hit 18 and need it for 'college books'.  Similarily with the state pensions, many's the grandparent who throws this into an account to give to the grandchildren at a later date.
It would be extremely easy to at least partially redress this inequity by making these (and indeed) all transfers taxable, but can you see an irish govt doing that?  Me either, far better trying to pretend we're on the road to salvation by cutting 4 billion a year off spending (might not be too easy from here on in though)

BogBallXV according to the 2010 receipts Excise was <€4.7bn.

VAT was €10.1bn.

That means total VAT + total Excise was still less than 75% of total Social Welfare spending.

TBH I still think there is something wring with that €20bn welfare figure. We couldn't really be spending double our total income tax take on welfare. Could we? Given that over half of our income tax take already goes on paying interest on the debt, and that we still have a serious annual deficit how the hell can anyone possibly think this is going to end well?

If the above was a family budget in a bankruptcy hearing the judge would give a serious bollocking to the head of the family.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on July 13, 2011, 01:53:50 PM
Guardian - Greece set to default? (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/jul/12/greece-set-to-default-massive-debt-burden?CMP=twt_atn)

It will be interesting to see all those bondholders Lenihan spoke about (Widows and orphans etc.) getting burned.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on July 13, 2011, 02:38:54 PM
(http://storyful.s3.amazonaws.com/production/ci_images/793795/euro_debts-large.jpg)

Looking at the above (which is in €Billions) is the following a way out?

http://www.eudebtwriteoff.com/ (http://www.eudebtwriteoff.com/)

The idea
The idea is very simple - if Portugal owes Ireland €0.34bn of short term debt, and Ireland owes Portugal €0.17bn, we can write off Ireland's obligations and leave Portugal with a reduced debt of €0.17bn.

If you are both a debtor and a creditor you do not need money to settle claims. Rather than require additional funds to deal with choking debt, why not write it off? 
The diagrams above show the before and after situation, based on analysis done by students. The simulation itself took place on May 17th 2011 and involved three separate trading rounds.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on July 13, 2011, 02:41:51 PM
Apologies for the multiple posts just one last picture which explains an awful lot imho.
(http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2010/05/02/weekinreview/02marsh-image/02marsh-image-custom1-v3.gif)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on July 13, 2011, 03:14:31 PM
Check out the graph of debt expansion on page 5

http://www.361capital.com/docs/Addicted%20to%20Debt_361_Capital_Sept_10.pdf
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on July 15, 2011, 10:51:55 AM
Apparently the EU stress tests about to be announced didn't factor in a Greek default.

Not worth the paper they are written on so.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Denn Forever on July 15, 2011, 10:59:59 AM
Now come on, who would have thought that Greece could default?   Be real.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on July 15, 2011, 11:01:08 AM
Quote from: Denn Forever on July 15, 2011, 10:59:59 AM
Now come on, who would have thought that Greece could default?   Be real.

The markets and the rating agencies but then the banks always know better.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on July 15, 2011, 03:22:09 PM
This 22 November 2010 piece from the FT is worth rereading in full.  Go bhfoire Dia orainn.

Jesus Mary and Joseph assist me now and in my last bailout agony.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/97fe4484-f66e-11df-846a-00144feab49a.html (http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/97fe4484-f66e-11df-846a-00144feab49a.html)

"The €750bn worth of financial ordnance in the European Financial Stability Facility and its European Union and International Monetary Fund matching funds was meant to bring enough shock and awe to scare markets off from thinking a eurozone sovereign might default. The EFSF's inaugural mobilisation reveals that between bond investors and Europe's leaders, the politicians blink first.• It is too soon to say whether the rescue into which Dublin has been manhandled by panicking EU partners can help fix Ireland's troubled banking sector. Decisions taken in the next week or two will make the difference between the rescue's failure and a chance of success.

• If the troika now imposing its writ in Dublin can get the Irish to restructure their banks in a way that recapitalises the banking sector (if not extant institutions) by forcing bondholders to convert to equity or otherwise share in losses, the EFSF can provide useful backstop funding for public spending or calls on banks' guaranteed liabilities in the transition period, which must be kept as short as possible.

A good outcome requires both a special insolvency regime and the will to strong-arm senior creditors into taking haircuts – as Dublin, to its credit, is finally doing to Anglo Irish subordinate bondholders. • So far, however, Ireland's uninvited helpers seem set on perpetuating Dublin's dysfunctional policy of throwing good money after bad and filling holes into which creditors refuse to step. This is understandable insofar as many of those creditors come from the core eurozone countries that guarantee the bulk of EFSF money. But it does not justify sticking to a failed strategy: keeping banks standing has already impoverished the Irish public by some €50bn, a third of a year's output. If borrowed EFSF money is used to inject equity into the banks now, it will only dig the Irish sovereign debt trap deeper.

The best that can realistically be hoped for is a combination of new equity and creditor haircuts. Whatever plan is laid, it is crucial that it does not aim to keep individual banks alive in their current form. That goal – which implies that the state continues to back all senior bank liabilities – is neither fair to taxpayers nor credible to markets. The mooted €80bn-€90bn rescue covers just half the Irish private sector's bank deposits, let alone other deposits and wholesale debt.

• Not for the first time, Europe is facing bank creditors and feeling tempted not to face them down. If public money is again used just to buy time, the problem will soon return, more contagious than ever."
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: lawnseed on July 15, 2011, 09:25:20 PM
ah somewhere to stay while when your in england google 'Britain's most expensive house' well we might as well get the use of the place we're paying for it >:( 60,000stg a month in maintenance bills.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on July 15, 2011, 11:19:15 PM
Quote from: lawnseed on July 15, 2011, 09:25:20 PM
ah somewhere to stay while when your in england google 'Britain's most expensive house' well we might as well get the use of the place we're paying for it >:( 60,000stg a month in maintenance bills.

I thought you didn't live in the '26'.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: lawnseed on July 18, 2011, 10:10:30 PM
Quote from: muppet on July 15, 2011, 11:19:15 PM
Quote from: lawnseed on July 15, 2011, 09:25:20 PM
ah somewhere to stay while when your in england google 'Britain's most expensive house' well we might as well get the use of the place we're paying for it >:( 60,000stg a month in maintenance bills.

I thought you didn't live in the '26'.
i do however pay my taxes as does my wife, did you see this place? not a bank in britain would touch this guy and national irish struck a deal for 60/40 of the profits. when they went belly up the taxpayer took the hit. who ever stuck this deal should get jail.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on July 20, 2011, 03:48:26 PM
http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2011/07/18/ntma-on-irelands-funding/ (http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2011/07/18/ntma-on-irelands-funding/)

Interesting blog above appears to demonstrate that we are funded relatively securely up to the end of 2013. After that we need new funding from somewhere.

In the comments below though these two caught my eye:

"After all, over 105 of the 357 NTMA staff are paid bewteen €100,000-€200,00 a years; 3 earn between €200,000-250,000; and 14 are paid over €250,000."

"Then again, there are over 7000 people in the department of finance earning over €100,000 per annum, so maybe the NTMA is the wrong place to start looking for savings."

Between the two they add up to a minimum of €1bn in wages assuming they all earn the lowest figures quoted above. I have some respect for the NTMA but little or none for the DoF. 7,000 people, earning >€100,000 in a department that led us to financial ruin is hardly value for money is it?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on July 20, 2011, 04:52:28 PM
there's hardly 7,000 people in the DOF??  I would have thought staff numbers would be in the hundreds?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on July 20, 2011, 05:21:47 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on July 20, 2011, 04:52:28 PM
there's hardly 7,000 people in the DOF??  I would have thought staff numbers would be in the hundreds?

Reading the subsequent comments it seems to be more like 700.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on July 21, 2011, 03:53:39 PM
It looks like Greece is going to get some help . Ireland must be due a dig out as well now that the angel of financial death  is hovering over Italy.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on July 21, 2011, 04:34:46 PM
Quote from: muppet on July 20, 2011, 05:21:47 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on July 20, 2011, 04:52:28 PM
there's hardly 7,000 people in the DOF??  I would have thought staff numbers would be in the hundreds?

Reading the subsequent comments it seems to be more like 700.
makes more sense alright.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on July 21, 2011, 08:59:52 PM
Bailout rate now 3.5% but  ECB loans to banks ( on dodgy collateral)  to be phased out ?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/jul/21/eurozone-bailout-fund-powers


Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on July 21, 2011, 09:38:19 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on July 21, 2011, 08:59:52 PM
Bailout rate now 3.5% but  ECB loans to banks ( on dodgy collateral)  to be phased out ?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/jul/21/eurozone-bailout-fund-powers

Ireland's banks can only be weaned off the tit of the ECB when the bond yield comes back down to 5%
and they can borrow again in the markets. And Mayo will win the all-Ireland before that happens.   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on July 21, 2011, 10:03:17 PM
Quote from: seafoid on July 21, 2011, 09:38:19 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on July 21, 2011, 08:59:52 PM
Bailout rate now 3.5% but  ECB loans to banks ( on dodgy collateral)  to be phased out ?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/jul/21/eurozone-bailout-fund-powers

Ireland's banks can only be weaned off the tit of the ECB when the bond yield comes back down to 5%
and they can borrow again in the markets. And Mayo will win the all-Ireland before that happens.   

Im a cynic but suspect the plan might see the bank loans eventually moved from ecb to the stability fund as ecb "regularised"  ...i think ecb money to banks is about twice the bailout funding and  the bailout money is at at 6% but ecb c  2.25%. There will be no real cut in overall loan rate ...ie new rate of 3.5% will be similar to  blended rate on ecb 2.25% /bailout 6% .
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on July 22, 2011, 12:00:20 AM
Quote from: bcarrier on July 21, 2011, 10:03:17 PM
Quote from: seafoid on July 21, 2011, 09:38:19 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on July 21, 2011, 08:59:52 PM
Bailout rate now 3.5% but  ECB loans to banks ( on dodgy collateral)  to be phased out ?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/jul/21/eurozone-bailout-fund-powers

Ireland's banks can only be weaned off the tit of the ECB when the bond yield comes back down to 5%
and they can borrow again in the markets. And Mayo will win the all-Ireland before that happens.   

Im a cynic but suspect the plan might see the bank loans eventually moved from ecb to the stability fund as ecb "regularised"  ...i think ecb money to banks is about twice the bailout funding and  the bailout money is at at 6% but ecb c  2.25%. There will be no real cut in overall loan rate ...ie new rate of 3.5% will be similar to  blended rate on ecb 2.25% /bailout 6% .

Would that not put us on the hook for another €150bn or so as it be considered part of the National Debt rather than emergency lending?

The ratings agencies would have to invent new categories below junk.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on July 22, 2011, 07:32:42 AM
There is a piece in the guardian article which states:

QuoteJean-Claude Trichet, the ECB chief, has warned that the bank will no longer keep Greek banks afloat by supplying liquidity for defaulted bond collateral. That role would probably shift, at least temporarily, to the eurozone bailout fund.

Maybe Tichet is talking about greek sovereign bond now being written down but if they are talking about all impaired collateral I cant see why would Irish banks be different to greek ones. There had been a request  before for the ECB to provide longer term funding to the banks or per Morgan Kelly to convert the emergency loans to equity.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on July 22, 2011, 08:57:59 AM
Quote from: muppet on July 22, 2011, 12:00:20 AM
Quote from: bcarrier on July 21, 2011, 10:03:17 PM
Quote from: seafoid on July 21, 2011, 09:38:19 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on July 21, 2011, 08:59:52 PM
Bailout rate now 3.5% but  ECB loans to banks ( on dodgy collateral)  to be phased out ?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/jul/21/eurozone-bailout-fund-powers

Ireland's banks can only be weaned off the tit of the ECB when the bond yield comes back down to 5%
and they can borrow again in the markets. And Mayo will win the all-Ireland before that happens.   

Im a cynic but suspect the plan might see the bank loans eventually moved from ecb to the stability fund as ecb "regularised"  ...i think ecb money to banks is about twice the bailout funding and  the bailout money is at at 6% but ecb c  2.25%. There will be no real cut in overall loan rate ...ie new rate of 3.5% will be similar to  blended rate on ecb 2.25% /bailout 6% .

Would that not put us on the hook for another €150bn or so as it be considered part of the National Debt rather than emergency lending?

The ratings agencies would have to invent new categories below junk.
This was in the irish times

Ireland's downgrading to junk status last week means the NTMA will have to raise debt from "investors at the margin with a higher risk appetite", said Mr Corrigan.

it all sounds like a former celebrity wife now turned prostitute and reduced to accepting €20 for a trick without any protection.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Bogball XV on July 22, 2011, 12:02:35 PM
Quote from: seafoid on July 22, 2011, 08:57:59 AM
Quote from: muppet link=topic=9548.msg992258#msg992258 date=1311289220
This was in the irish times

b]Ireland's downgrading to junk status last week means the NTMA will have to raise debt from "investors at the margin with a higher risk appetite", said Mr Corrigan.[/b]

it all sounds like a former celebrity wife now turned prostitute and reduced to accepting €20 for a trick without any protection.
I'd say it's more that the rumour mill has put it about that the former celebrity wife is HIV positve, so punters have to make the decision about what represents better value, the german lady in the nice parlour across the road for €50 or the former celebrity wife at €20.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: magpie seanie on July 22, 2011, 12:32:57 PM
That Lucinda Cretin is an embarrassment. How she ever got elected, let alone the job she has at present, I will never know. An empty vessel spouting the establishments rhetoric when its obvious she hasn't the slightest clue about what she is talking about. 

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0722/eu.html
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on July 22, 2011, 12:53:49 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on July 22, 2011, 12:32:57 PM
That Lucinda Cretin is an embarrassment. How she ever got elected, let alone the job she has at present, I will never know. An empty vessel spouting the establishments rhetoric when its obvious she hasn't the slightest clue about what she is talking about. 

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0722/eu.html

She is FG's version of Mary O'Rourke, simply there to get her picture in the paper.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on July 22, 2011, 01:54:56 PM
The government needs a corner back to stop voters thinking there might be a chance of a bank run and going for the score. Lucinda is as good as anyone else. It is all nonsense but it keeps the banking system ticking over. I think.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: magpie seanie on July 22, 2011, 03:15:04 PM
Yeah, I agree with you both on that but its disappointing that people are so thick that they don't see through it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on July 22, 2011, 03:23:41 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on July 22, 2011, 03:15:04 PM
Yeah, I agree with you both on that but its disappointing that people are so thick that they don't see through it.

Yeah Seanie but if the only source of info most people have is RTE news or the Irish newspapers how are they supposed to know anything about how bad the financial situation is ? I  think RTE's main job these days is to keep everyone calm enough so that there is no bank run.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on July 22, 2011, 03:24:07 PM
I am trying to break the habit of a lifetime and read a bit before posting anything on the news above.

It is hard to escape a couple of conclusions though:

a) the rate reduction has been agreed because the French and Germans finally accept (what any idiot knew but they tried to use for political gain) that the rate was too high.
b) they have once again kicked the can down the road and we have deja vu, all over again.

You could go for a more authoritative explanation, but the best of luck with it: http://blogs.wsj.com/brussels/2011/07/22/a-stab-at-greek-clarity/ (http://blogs.wsj.com/brussels/2011/07/22/a-stab-at-greek-clarity/)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on July 22, 2011, 05:38:56 PM
Quote from: muppet on July 22, 2011, 03:24:07 PM
I am trying to break the habit of a lifetime and read a bit before posting anything on the news above.

It is hard to escape a couple of conclusions though:

a) the rate reduction has been agreed because the French and Germans finally accept (what any idiot knew but they tried to use for political gain) that the rate was too high.
b) they have once again kicked the can down the road and we have deja vu, all over again.

You could go for a more authoritative explanation, but the best of luck with it: http://blogs.wsj.com/brussels/2011/07/22/a-stab-at-greek-clarity/ (http://blogs.wsj.com/brussels/2011/07/22/a-stab-at-greek-clarity/)
the FT is implying the IMF have a bigger say in the bailouts now and that they are more likely to face facts.
If the IMF had been in charge in November AIB, Anglo  and BoI would probably have been wound down .
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on July 22, 2011, 10:09:09 PM
QuoteYou could go for a more authoritative explanation, but the best of luck with it: http://blogs.wsj.com/brussels/2011/07/22/a-stab-at-greek-clarity/

Good article. Still having a clue where this is headed though.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on July 23, 2011, 02:22:24 AM
From the EU leaders joint statement:

"In this context, we note Ireland's willingness to participate constructively in the discussions on the Common Consolidated Corporate Tax Base draft directive (CCCTB) and in the structured discussions on tax policy issues in the framework of the Euro+ Pact framework."

One man's participate constructively is another man's bend over.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on July 23, 2011, 01:30:40 PM
Quote from: muppet on July 23, 2011, 02:22:24 AM
From the EU leaders joint statement:

"In this context, we note Ireland's willingness to participate constructively in the discussions on the Common Consolidated Corporate Tax Base draft directive (CCCTB) and in the structured discussions on tax policy issues in the framework of the Euro+ Pact framework."

One man's participate constructively is another man's bend over.
I think the French have backed down now. Maybe the IMF had a quiet word about economic growth and getting your money back.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on July 24, 2011, 12:32:35 AM
http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2011/07/23/just-one-week-after-the-eba-stress-tests-one-spanish-bank-needs-e2-8bn-of-capital-more-than-the-eba-calculated-for-the-whole-of-europe-confirmation-that-the-stress-tests-were-a-joke/ (http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2011/07/23/just-one-week-after-the-eba-stress-tests-one-spanish-bank-needs-e2-8bn-of-capital-more-than-the-eba-calculated-for-the-whole-of-europe-confirmation-that-the-stress-tests-were-a-joke/)

Incroyable!

Last weeks' stress tests said only 8 banks in the eurozone failed the tests and needed only a total of €2.5bn.

One week later: One of those banks needed a Government bailout of €2.8bn and a new line of credit for another €3bn.


Moodys & Muppet's ratings agency announce the downgrading of those performing the ECB's stress tests from Senderos to Sludden.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on July 24, 2011, 03:50:26 PM
The ads for Irish state savings on Sunday sport caught my attention.
There is no mention of default. I presume if Ireland gets the Greek debt treatment that
savings bonds will not be spared.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on July 24, 2011, 03:53:17 PM
Quote from: seafoid on July 24, 2011, 03:50:26 PM
The ads for Irish state savings on Sunday sport caught my attention.
There is no mention of default. I presume if Ireland gets the Greek debt treatment that
savings bonds will not be spared.

I believe January 2014 is our key hurdle. Over €11bn debt maturing.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/14/ireland-bailout-debt-idUSWLB789520110714 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/14/ireland-bailout-debt-idUSWLB789520110714)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: orangeman on July 29, 2011, 04:12:18 PM
This is scary :


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-14340470



Apple now has more cash to spend than the United States government.

Latest figures from the US Treasury Department show that the country has an operating cash balance of $73.7bn (£45.3bn).


Apple's most recent financial results put its reserves at $76.4bn (£46.9bn).

The US House of Representatives is due to vote on a bill to raise the country's debt ceiling, allowing it to borrow more money to cover spending commitments.

If it fails to extend the current limit of $14.3 trillion (£8.7tn) dollars, the federal government could find itself struggling to make payments, and risks the loss of its AAA credit rating.

The United States is currently spending around $200bn (£122bn) more than it collects in revenue every month.

Apple, on the other hand, is making money hand over fist, according to its financial results.

In the three months ending 25 June, net income was 125% higher than a year earlier at $7.31bn (£4.6bn).

With more than $75bn (£35.8bn) either sitting in the bank or in easily accessible assets, there has been enormous speculation about what the company will do with the money.

"Apple keeps its cards close to its chest," said Daniel Ashdown, an analyst at Juniper Research.

Industry watchers believe that it is building up a war chest to be used for strategic acquisitions of other businesses, and to secure technology patents.

Bookstore Barnes and Noble and the online movie site Netflix have both been tipped as possible targets, said Mr Ashdown.

The company may also have its eye on smaller firms that develop systems Apple might want to add to its devices, such as voice recognition.

Apple dipped into some of its reserves recently when it teamed-up with Microsoft to buy a batch of patents from defunct Canadian firm Nortel.

The bidding consortium shelled out $4.5bn (£2.8bn) for more than 6,000 patents.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: whiskeysteve on August 04, 2011, 10:39:33 PM
Mamma mia! no need to post a link, where would you start - holes all over the hull now!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jK-NcRmVcw
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Orangemac on August 04, 2011, 11:35:43 PM
The bailout fund idea seems to have gone down the swanny. Heard figure of 2 trillion put at the debt level and doubt German taxpayers want to pay any more.

What are the remaining choices? Force bondholders Europe wide to take a hit and restructure debt or printy printy from the ECB to flood the market with euros with the knock on effect of inflation.

Either way it ain't going to be pretty.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on August 05, 2011, 03:35:30 AM
Every time some obnoxious hurdle appears Sarky, Trichet and rest of the garcons put on their boots and deliver a well aimed kick and le can flies a bit more down the road. This is a can-do can, also known in some places as a CDO can. This Can has a AAA rating you know. From Moody's and Fitch and the like. It is a seriously resilient can. It has been used to save Greece and Portugal and the Irish have also managed to drink from le can. This can is good for congestion, and guarantees.

Amazingly the markets have been less than impressed with le can. Despite AAA ratings and Stavros Flatley and Ronaldo dancing the Can-Can at Cannes the markets just don't seem to get it. That didn't matter as they had to play along so far. Sarky, Trichet and Angel told them the can with the plan is the only show in town, we are where we are and the fundamentals are sound.

However now some idiot has actually asked what is in le can. Even worse they actually picked up le can.

Here it is:

(http://i01.i.aliimg.com/photo/v0/233193105/Tin_magic_bean_can_magic_bean_funny.jpg)


Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on August 05, 2011, 01:42:37 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0805/rating-business.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0805/rating-business.html)

S&P estimated that lower interest rates as a result of the recent EU agreement would save Ireland around €900m. It also predicted that Ireland could go back into the bond markets in late 2013, and that market interest rates on Irish debt would fall to around 6% by then.

It said it did not expect the restructuring of the banking system to lead to any further costs to the State.


Amazing how not being cut to junk status by a dreaded ratings agencies is considered good news. But I suppose when everyone else is sliding and you are standing still it looks like progress.

This week's crash in the markets reminds me of way back eh last week when there was a crash averted at the last minute by a deal in Washington.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on August 05, 2011, 01:52:25 PM
Italians get serious with ratings agencies:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/8682558/SandPs-and-Moodys-face-Italian-raids.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/8682558/SandPs-and-Moodys-face-Italian-raids.html)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on August 06, 2011, 02:30:13 AM
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/06/business/us-debt-downgraded-by-sp.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/06/business/us-debt-downgraded-by-sp.html)

Standards & Poors downgrade US 'long term debt'.

The markets on monday will be interesting. I will be on holiday.

Please only contact me in the event of a crucial Mayo squad update.

At a stretch, contact me if Kerry Mike has offered a bye in the semi.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: the Deel Rover on August 06, 2011, 09:26:21 AM
allways look on the bright side of life da da da da da da da da da




Big boost for Ireland amid market chaos

Saturday August 06 2011

IRISH banks got a major boost from an influential ratings agency last night in stark contrast to the financial turmoil that is threatening the world economy.

The Standard & Poor's (S&P) agency said taxpayers would not need to pump any more money into our banks and that the country was on course to escape a Greek-style second bailout. In doing so it gave its most upbeat assessment of our prospects since before the EU/IMF bailout.

The Irish economy was singled out for praise after a week of horrendous share-value losses on world markets. The top European market lost 11pc of value, while the main US stock market dropped 7pc.

- Donal O'Donovan and Emmet Oliver

Irish Independent




Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: thejuice on August 16, 2011, 01:53:49 PM
German growth at a sluggish 0.1%

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0816/germany-business.html
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on August 16, 2011, 02:13:17 PM
Ireland hasn't a hope of meeting the bailout targets in the absence of growth internationally.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on August 16, 2011, 02:18:05 PM
Quote from: seafoid on August 16, 2011, 02:13:17 PM
Ireland hasn't a hope of meeting the bailout targets in the absence of growth internationally.

Less of the old pessimism there Seafoid.

Some of us are still celebrating NOT being downgraded to junk status from DD-, which of course was all of our childhoods' favourite status.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: the Deel Rover on August 16, 2011, 02:57:14 PM
Quote from: thejuice on August 16, 2011, 01:53:49 PM
German growth at a sluggish 0.1%

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0816/germany-business.html

Ok lads can any one tell me whats the story with Germany since they are the be all and end all with Europe . Since April we have had two rate rises because they said inflation was running high in Germany and now nada no growth at all despite a cople of months ago they were predicting large growth (not sure what %)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on August 18, 2011, 03:38:37 PM
http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=ds22a34krhq5p_&ctype=b&strail=false&nselm=s&met_x=edp_b9_pc_gdp&scale_x=lin&ind_x=false&met_y=gd_pc_gdp&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&met_c=edp_b9_mio_eur&met_s=gd_mio_eur&idim=country:ie:gr:pt:es:it:tr&ifdim=country&tunit=Y&pit=1281826800000&icfg&uniSize=0.034999999999999996&iconSize=0.5#ctype=b&strail=true&nselm=s&met_x=edp_b9_pc_gdp&scale_x=lin&ind_x=false&met_y=gd_pc_gdp&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&met_s=gd_mio_eur&scale_s=lin&ind_s=false&met_c=gd_pc_gdp&scale_c=lin&ind_c=false&idim=country:uk&ifdim=country&pit=1282086000000&hl=en&dl=en (http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=ds22a34krhq5p_&ctype=b&strail=false&nselm=s&met_x=edp_b9_pc_gdp&scale_x=lin&ind_x=false&met_y=gd_pc_gdp&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&met_c=edp_b9_mio_eur&met_s=gd_mio_eur&idim=country:ie:gr:pt:es:it:tr&ifdim=country&tunit=Y&pit=1281826800000&icfg&uniSize=0.034999999999999996&iconSize=0.5#ctype=b&strail=true&nselm=s&met_x=edp_b9_pc_gdp&scale_x=lin&ind_x=false&met_y=gd_pc_gdp&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&met_s=gd_mio_eur&scale_s=lin&ind_s=false&met_c=gd_pc_gdp&scale_c=lin&ind_c=false&idim=country:uk&ifdim=country&pit=1282086000000&hl=en&dl=en)

Click on the link, hit clear selections on the left, the tick the Ireland box and press play (beside the 1995)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on August 18, 2011, 03:41:37 PM
Quote from: the Deel Rover on August 16, 2011, 02:57:14 PM
Quote from: thejuice on August 16, 2011, 01:53:49 PM
German growth at a sluggish 0.1%

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0816/germany-business.html

Ok lads can any one tell me whats the story with Germany since they are the be all and end all with Europe . Since April we have had two rate rises because they said inflation was running high in Germany and now nada no growth at all despite a cople of months ago they were predicting large growth (not sure what %)

Those rate rises look like a mistake. Inflation is not where it is at.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: thejuice on August 18, 2011, 05:12:49 PM
Quote from: muppet on August 18, 2011, 03:38:37 PM
http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=ds22a34krhq5p_&ctype=b&strail=false&nselm=s&met_x=edp_b9_pc_gdp&scale_x=lin&ind_x=false&met_y=gd_pc_gdp&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&met_c=edp_b9_mio_eur&met_s=gd_mio_eur&idim=country:ie:gr:pt:es:it:tr&ifdim=country&tunit=Y&pit=1281826800000&icfg&uniSize=0.034999999999999996&iconSize=0.5#ctype=b&strail=true&nselm=s&met_x=edp_b9_pc_gdp&scale_x=lin&ind_x=false&met_y=gd_pc_gdp&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&met_s=gd_mio_eur&scale_s=lin&ind_s=false&met_c=gd_pc_gdp&scale_c=lin&ind_c=false&idim=country:uk&ifdim=country&pit=1282086000000&hl=en&dl=en (http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=ds22a34krhq5p_&ctype=b&strail=false&nselm=s&met_x=edp_b9_pc_gdp&scale_x=lin&ind_x=false&met_y=gd_pc_gdp&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&met_c=edp_b9_mio_eur&met_s=gd_mio_eur&idim=country:ie:gr:pt:es:it:tr&ifdim=country&tunit=Y&pit=1281826800000&icfg&uniSize=0.034999999999999996&iconSize=0.5#ctype=b&strail=true&nselm=s&met_x=edp_b9_pc_gdp&scale_x=lin&ind_x=false&met_y=gd_pc_gdp&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&met_s=gd_mio_eur&scale_s=lin&ind_s=false&met_c=gd_pc_gdp&scale_c=lin&ind_c=false&idim=country:uk&ifdim=country&pit=1282086000000&hl=en&dl=en)

Click on the link, hit clear selections on the left, the tick the Ireland box and press play (beside the 1995)

We could all learn a bit from Norway.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on September 01, 2011, 09:56:05 PM
I think we have turned the corner.

However these people think otherwise (they back up their assertion): http://bondwatchireland.blogspot.com/ (http://bondwatchireland.blogspot.com/)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Orangemac on September 01, 2011, 11:30:54 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 01, 2011, 09:56:05 PM
I think we have turned the corner.

However these people think otherwise (they back up their assertion): http://bondwatchireland.blogspot.com/ (http://bondwatchireland.blogspot.com/)
Lucky there is a great investigative media in Ireland who are covering and questioning this on a regular basis. In between covering the presidency and lobbying for neg equity bail outs.

The deficit needs to reduced but there are better ways to do it than continually hitting ordinary workers disposable income.Colm McCarthys An Bord Snip report is sitting gathering dust somewhere not to mention money being wasted in local councils and in universities under the auspices of the smart economy.

Earners over 100k need to be taxed more also. Isn't there a large bond repayment due in 2014? If Ireland could get to a manageable deficit by then they could tell these bondholders to go f*** themselves then as they should be able to borrow any money needed by then.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: blast05 on September 01, 2011, 11:58:52 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 01, 2011, 09:56:05 PM
I think we have turned the corner.

However these people think otherwise (they back up their assertion): http://bondwatchireland.blogspot.com/ (http://bondwatchireland.blogspot.com/)

Well our current account surplus (exports minus imports) is running at about 40 billion. We're borrowing about 20 billion a year. So as a country as a whole (private and public) we're exporting about 20 billion a year to the rest of the world.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Rois on September 06, 2011, 09:50:24 PM
NAMA prog on RTE at the mo
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Rossfan on September 07, 2011, 08:51:30 AM
Did ye ever see anything like the cheek and arrogance of a couple of those Developer cnuts who were on that programme last night.
One lad wants his debts forgiven so they can get back to business again while another one of them says that Ireland needs the "property industry" going again to get out of the slump.

FFS it's the f***in c***in property trade (it's not an industry) that got us into the mess we're in.
These a****oles just don't or won't get it will they?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Rois on September 07, 2011, 10:22:38 AM
Quote from: Rossfan on September 07, 2011, 08:51:30 AM
Did ye ever see anything like the cheek and arrogance of a couple of those Developer cnuts who were on that programme last night.

The guy from Glenkerrin really riled me - said that they were lucky, they were a young company but would have to develop out of Ireland now, and that if they came back and made money, that they'd have to apply it to the outstanding debt.  Er - yes! 

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Orangemac on September 07, 2011, 09:18:48 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on September 07, 2011, 08:51:30 AM
Did ye ever see anything like the cheek and arrogance of a couple of those Developer cnuts who were on that programme last night.
One lad wants his debts forgiven so they can get back to business again while another one of them says that Ireland needs the "property industry" going again to get out of the slump.

FFS it's the f***in c***in property trade (it's not an industry) that got us into the mess we're in.
These a****oles just don't or won't get it will they?
Unfortunately for these guys there are over 200k vacant houses in Ireland and god knows how many industrial units. It will be 2/3 years before there is any inroads made into this oversupply. Construction was something like 16% of the economy during the peak of the boom,those days are gone forever.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on September 07, 2011, 10:12:38 PM
Martin Wolf in the FT says it is time for borrowing to provide investment to get people back to work .
The Germans are wrong.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/9cbe577a-d872-11e0-8f0a-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1XIrqiBdf
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: FermGael on September 14, 2011, 05:23:43 PM
End game???

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14913517 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14913517)

Quote
Commission president Barroso to put forward eurobonds

European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso has said he will put forward moves to tackle the eurozone debt crisis, which he called "the most serious challenge of a generation".

He said he would urge the 17 eurozone nations to issue joint bonds, allowing them to borrow money collectively.
Eurobonds have been backed by Italian Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti and investor George Soros.

However, Germany has repeatedly expressed its opposition to the idea.

His comments came ahead of an emergency conference call between German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou due later on Wednesday.

The three are expected to discuss how to address recent market turmoil, prompted by fears of an imminent Greek debt default.

"I want to confirm that the Commission will soon present options for the introduction of eurobonds," he said.

"Some of these could be implemented within the terms of the current treaty, and others would require treaty changes."

However, Mr Barroso emphasised that the measure on its own was not enough to solve the eurozone debt crisis.

Speaking to the European Parliament, Mr Barroso said that the political process in the eurozone - dominated as it is by the heads of the 17 member governments - was too slow for impatient markets.

He argued that the solution to the crisis would have to involve the "Community method" - implying more centralised decision-making.

'Interesting development'

Meanwhile, in a surprise reversal of traditional roles, five big developing countries are to discuss providing financial support to Europe.

The leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) are to meet at the annual World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) summit next week, according to Brazilian finance minister Guido Mantega.

Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF, called it an "interesting development" and "acceptable hypothesis" for the Fund.

"But if they limit themselves to buying bonds deemed safe by everyone, like the German and British, they wouldn't be taking much risk," she told Italian newspaper La Stampa.

"My hope is that if interventions like this take place, that they'll be large and not limited to certain states."

China's president, Wen Jiabao, said that his country stood ready to help, but only if the eurozone got its act together.

"The governments of all countries must truly shoulder their responsibilities and deal properly with their own affairs," he said, speaking at the World Economic Forum at Dalian in China
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Denn Forever on September 17, 2011, 10:29:02 PM
What is the current opinion n this guy? 

US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has told euro zone ministers at a meeting in Poland that they should end loose talk about a euro zone break-up. 
-
He urged them to work more closely with the European Central Bank to tackle the debt crisis. 
-
He was speaking after discussing the possibility of expanding the euro zone's bail-out fund. 
-
Austria's finance minister Maria Fekter later told reporters Mr Geithner had ruled out the idea of a tax on financial transactions.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on September 17, 2011, 10:42:25 PM
Quote from: Denn Forever on September 17, 2011, 10:29:02 PM
What is the current opinion n this guy? 

US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has told euro zone ministers at a meeting in Poland that they should end loose talk about a euro zone break-up. 
-
He urged them to work more closely with the European Central Bank to tackle the debt crisis. 
-
He was speaking after discussing the possibility of expanding the euro zone's bail-out fund. 
-
Austria's finance minister Maria Fekter later told reporters Mr Geithner had ruled out the idea of a tax on financial transactions.

He is here because the ECB fan is spreading the shit far and wide.  He is the gatekeeper of US interests and is a very capable individual. However he was head of the New York Fed (equivalent of the Central Bank) while Wall Street ran amok in the run up to Lehman's collapse.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Orangemac on September 17, 2011, 10:46:47 PM
Quote from: Denn Forever on September 17, 2011, 10:29:02 PM
What is the current opinion n this guy? 

US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has told euro zone ministers at a meeting in Poland that they should end loose talk about a euro zone break-up. 
-
He urged them to work more closely with the European Central Bank to tackle the debt crisis. 
-
He was speaking after discussing the possibility of expanding the euro zone's bail-out fund. 
-
Austria's finance minister Maria Fekter later told reporters Mr Geithner had ruled out the idea of a tax on financial transactions.
Was it this guy who advised IMF/ECB that senior bondholders could not be burned by Irish gov during original bailout talks?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on September 17, 2011, 10:51:18 PM
Quote from: Orangemac on September 17, 2011, 10:46:47 PM
Quote from: Denn Forever on September 17, 2011, 10:29:02 PM
What is the current opinion n this guy? 

US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has told euro zone ministers at a meeting in Poland that they should end loose talk about a euro zone break-up. 
-
He urged them to work more closely with the European Central Bank to tackle the debt crisis. 
-
He was speaking after discussing the possibility of expanding the euro zone's bail-out fund. 
-
Austria's finance minister Maria Fekter later told reporters Mr Geithner had ruled out the idea of a tax on financial transactions.
Was it this guy who advised IMF/ECB that senior bondholders could not be burned by Irish gov during original bailout talks?

It was he, but it was more recently. He represents the interests of his country, including those holding Irish bonds. He is hardly going to advise burning his own.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on September 18, 2011, 02:18:14 PM
http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2011/09/they-havent-a-clue/ (http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2011/09/they-havent-a-clue/)

They haven't a clue

by Golem XIV on SEPTEMBER 14, 2011 in LATEST
Do you ever get the feeling our leaders don't know what the hell they're doing?

The Finns want collateral. Mr Barroso at the Commission wants to sell Euro Bonds. The Germans don't. The Greek people want to default. The French banks are desperate that they don't. Tim Geithner wants Europe to follow America's lead and create a super expanded bail out fund like America's TARP. The Austrian parliament declined to fast track the idea through their parliament. No one is sure if this is Austrian pedantry or a refusal.  In the UK the long awaited Vickers report on Bank 'reform' is welcomed and given a timetable of ...2019...because obviously when you're in a crisis you don't want to hurry.

In Italy austerity plan 1 was passed and then eaten by 'special interests' till there was nothing left. The 'perfectly well capitalized' Italian banks who had disdained raising cash earlier suddenly began an accelerated kind of rot so that they seemed to crumble in on themselves life a leper with a failed face lift.

As fast as our leaders plan to put money in to the banks, depositors, especially large financial institutions and other European banks are taking their money out (100 billion euros have left Italian banks this year so far) and putting it in American banks. At the same time American Money Market Funds have also stopped lending to European banks.

But, the American banks are now lending billion of that money back to the European banks via long duration repo agreements (an agreement in which you 'sell' an asset but with the agreement to repurchase the assets at a fixed time and at a fixed price). Thus it is less like selling and more like pawning. And so, to solve their short term funding the European banks are pledging assets that are still worth something at American banks who funnily enough find themselves flush with cash.

But then help is at hand in th eform of a conference call no less betwen Merkel, Sarkozy and Papandreou in which it is revealed to a waiting world that, "Greece will meet its obligations and stay in the Euro block." There that was easy wan't it. Makes you wonder why they didn't just say so before!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on September 19, 2011, 10:55:22 AM
Roubini : Greece should default and leave the Euro

http://blogs.ft.com/the-a-list/2011/09/19/greece-should-default-and-abandon-the-euro/#axzz1YO84f6JE

"The recent debt exchange deal Europe offered Greece was a rip-off, providing much less debt relief than the country needed. If you pick apart the figures, and take into account the large sweeteners the plan gave to creditors, the true debt relief is actually close to zero."

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on September 19, 2011, 11:07:28 AM
Aside from all the financial issues does anyone think that long term there will be serious political consequences of this crisis?

Imho the humiliation of Greece and the austerity packages rammed into other countries could create a bigger appetite for the rise of the extreme right and the extreme left in these countries. The short term thinking in Europe and the States could have very serious long term implications over the next decade.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on September 19, 2011, 06:30:22 PM
QuoteImho the humiliation of Greece and the austerity packages rammed into other countries could create a bigger appetite for the rise of the extreme right and the extreme left in these countries. The short term thinking in Europe and the States could have very serious long term implications over the next decade.

Definitely - May you be glad you live in interesting times!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: whiskeysteve on September 20, 2011, 01:40:53 PM
From Irish economy blog; How Europe Sees Itself:

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-M3s5B3Ov_64/TnBT_gwOJMI/AAAAAAAAAbw/FLqtggnT280/s320/euroview.jpg)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on September 26, 2011, 07:32:41 PM
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/europes-latest-rescue-deux-ex-machina-cdo-squared (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/europes-latest-rescue-deux-ex-machina-cdo-squared)

The latest solution to EU debt crisis is to borrow loads and loads more money and pray.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Orangemac on September 26, 2011, 11:59:56 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 26, 2011, 07:32:41 PM
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/europes-latest-rescue-deux-ex-machina-cdo-squared (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/europes-latest-rescue-deux-ex-machina-cdo-squared)

The latest solution to EU debt crisis is to borrow loads and loads more money and pray.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?hl=en&v=b97zJxKEqAk&gl=US

Solution to debt crisiis - borrow more money!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on September 27, 2011, 03:21:49 PM
Martin Wolf on why the financial markets are like a dog who has just clasped its paws around the leg of a table

Presumably, an effort would be made to build a firewall between the exiting country and other vulnerable countries. But it would be tested to destruction.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: thejuice on September 30, 2011, 08:23:33 PM
Anyone see this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqN3amj6AcE

So what was so shocking? He pretty much said what everyone knows. Its just the politicians like to pretend that they can do something about it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Dougal Maguire on September 30, 2011, 08:47:15 PM
So what is he saying we should do with our money?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on October 04, 2011, 11:06:10 AM
Belgian Bank Dexia to be broken up

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/602bd8b6-edd8-11e0-acc7-00144feab49a.html#ixzz1Znx7z6mX


How to bet against France . This is totally amoral
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f92841b2-eddd-11e0-a491-00144feab49a.html#ixzz1Zo0l27rc
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on October 04, 2011, 01:58:38 PM
QuoteHow to bet against France . This is totally amoral


No surprise there -
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on October 18, 2011, 04:14:54 PM
This explains everything, in 3 minutes (FaceBook video).

http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=10150860012110261 (http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=10150860012110261)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on October 19, 2011, 01:05:28 PM
It sure does
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on October 19, 2011, 11:04:47 PM
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/much-deserved-blast-past
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on October 19, 2011, 11:05:23 PM
http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2011/101511.htm
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on October 20, 2011, 08:48:49 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zOZnRUZKf48&feature=player_embedded

2.45 for the banks
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on October 22, 2011, 05:38:43 PM
http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2011/10/hungarys-default-the-first-victim-erste-bank/ (http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2011/10/hungarys-default-the-first-victim-erste-bank/)

Apparently Hungary de facto defaulted (sounds like an 80s band) nearly two weeks ago.

Erste bank of Austria has just announced a 1.6 billion Euro loss. It's share price fell nearly 10%.

It is the nature of the losses more than the amount which is critical.

First and foremost the losses were because of Hungay's default (Yeah that's right, Default) and the 'unexpected' slow down in Romania. Hungary passed a law which is now close to coming in to force, which allows people who borrowed in Swiss francs to pay back on Hungarian florints. It is this law which is causing the banks to lose about 21%-25% on a large chunk of their loans.  I wrote about this in Greece, Hungary and Italy – a nexus of debt failure. I made this point then, and it is now clear I was correct, that the law amounted to a default.  While everyone was looking at Greece asking will they, won't they, Hungary did.


Here is the timeline:

2008: IMF are called in http://www.reuters.com/article/2008/10/27/us-financial-hungary-idUSTRE49Q2DT20081027 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2008/10/27/us-financial-hungary-idUSTRE49Q2DT20081027)

Nov 2010: Government takes private pensions into State scheme http://blogs.wsj.com/emergingeurope/2010/11/24/hungary-forces-private-pension-fund-members-back-to-state-scheme/ (http://blogs.wsj.com/emergingeurope/2010/11/24/hungary-forces-private-pension-fund-members-back-to-state-scheme/)

Oct 2011: Default
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on October 23, 2011, 03:13:05 PM
Just 2 weeks - 14 days before 2nd Nov when Ireland pays 100% of $1bn (€730m) Anglo unsecured unguaranteed senior bond.

http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/

Anglo has received €29.3bn of a state bailout, yet according to Leo is repaying this bond from asset sales?

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Main Street on October 23, 2011, 03:27:43 PM
Sale of pension fund assets, I would guess
The Pension Fund has been ordered by the government to sell off €10bn worth of assets, to be sunk into AIB and BOI.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on October 26, 2011, 02:00:33 PM
It's True, Bankers Really Do Control the World: Study
by Catherine McLean
WINTERTHUR, Switzerland - Here's a gift to Occupy Wall Street protesters around the world: you now have scholarly proof that banks control the world.

Researchers at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, also known as ETH, have published a paper that argues just 147 companies account for a large chunk of the total economic value of all the transnational companies around the world. No exact dollar figures, but it's obviously a vast sum.


Among the top 50 corporations, 45 operate within the financial industry. Barclays PLC is the most powerful, according to the ETH study, followed by such well-known names as JPMorgan Chase & Co., UBS AG, and Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc.

The United States takes home first prize with 24 companies cracking the researchers' top 50 list, followed by the U.K. with 8, France with 5, Japan with 4, and Germany, Switzerland and the Netherlands tying with 2 companies each. Canada has one company in the researchers' top 50: Sun Life Financial, Inc. secures the 35th spot.

The research shows "a large portion of control flows to a small tightly-knit core of financial institutions," authors Stefania Vitali, James Glattfelder and Stefano Battiston wrote in their study entitled: The network of global corporate control.

"This core can be seen as an economic 'super-entity' that raises new important issues both for researchers and policy makers."

While the authors note that many in the worlds of academia and the media already believe the world's economy is run by a small number of companies, there was no actual data to back it up. So they set out to study the elaborate ownership structures of 43,060 transnational companies, eventually uncovering more than one million ownership ties within that network.

The authors believe this level of control among a small number of players has a significant impact on the world's economic health. The 147 companies in the "core" control 40 per cent of the total economic value of all transnational corporations.

"The top ranked actors hold a control ten times bigger than what could be expected based on their wealth," the authors noted.

The intense interconnection and concentration of power weakens market competition as players form blocs, according to the study. There's another drawback to those close links, particularly among the banks: when one runs into problems its woes spread quickly to the others.

Critics say the study doesn't take into account that fund managers don't always choose to control a company's strategy via their investment, among other complaints.



http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/1107/1107.5728v2.pdf (http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/1107/1107.5728v2.pdf)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on October 26, 2011, 09:34:25 PM
This is doing the rounds on FB now:


Warren Buffett, "I could end the deficit in 5 minutes," he told CNBC. "You just pass a law that says that anytime there is a deficit of more than 3% of GDP, all
sitting members of Congress are ineligible for re-election. The 26th
amendment (granting the right to vote for 18 year-olds) took only 3 months
& 8 days to be ratified! Why? Simple! The people demanded it. That was in
1971...before computers, e-mail, cell phones, etc. Of the 27 amendments to
the Constitution, seven (7) took 1 year or less to become the law of the
land...all because of public pressure.

Warren Buffet is asking each addressee to forward this email to a minimum of
twenty people on their address list; in turn ask each of those to do
likewise.
In three days, most people in The United States of America will have the
message. This is one idea that really should be passed around.

*Congressional Reform Act of 2011*

1. No Tenure / No Pension. A Congressman collects a salary while in office
and receives no pay when they are out of office.

2. Congress (past, present & future) participates in Social Security. All
funds in the Congressional retirement fund move to the Social Security
system immediately. All future funds flow into the Social Security system,
and Congress participates with the American people. It may not be used for
any other purpose.

3. Congress can purchase their own retirement plan, just as all Americans
do.

4. Congress will no longer vote themselves a pay raise. Congressional pay
will rise by the lower of CPI or 3%.

5. Congress loses their current health care system and participates in the
same health care system as the American people.

6. Congress must equally abide by all laws they impose on the American
people.

7. All contracts with past and present Congressmen are void effective 1/1/12.
The American people did not make this contract with Congressmen. Congressmen
made all these contracts for themselves. Serving in Congress is an honor,
not a career. The Founding Fathers envisioned citizen legislators, so ours
should serve their term's), then go home and back to work.

If each person contacts a minimum of twenty people then it will only take
three days for most people (in the U.S.) to receive the message. Maybe it is
time.

THIS IS HOW YOU FIX CONGRESS!!!!! If you agree with the above, pass it on
.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Gaoth Dobhair Abu on October 27, 2011, 11:32:02 AM
With Greece getting 50% of their debts written off, how does this leave Ireland - do we just have to "suck it up?"
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Rossfan on October 27, 2011, 12:20:11 PM
Yes !
Because we are an honourable race who pay our debts  :-\
Now if we could only get the Brits to pay us what we're owed for 800 years of  you know yerself we'd be grand .
And we could pay Greece's debts as well  ::)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Gaoth Dobhair Abu on October 27, 2011, 12:31:45 PM
Surely there has to be penalties that Greece will suffer?!

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on October 27, 2011, 05:27:03 PM
Quote from: Gaoth Dobhair Abu on October 27, 2011, 12:31:45 PM
Surely there has to be penalties that Greece will suffer?!

The Greeks have no economy and no assets. Look at the Greek people in suits going to soup kitchens. Their being 'allowed' to default is merely Merkel and Sarky bowing to reality and accepting that French and German banks must write off the debt. We have an economy and we have assets (although we are giving them away for free). We could default unilaterally but then we would be like Greece minus the friends.

We should be marching outside Pat Rabbitte's office demanding he sets up a State organisation through which all of our oil and gas is dealt, for the benefit of the citizens and only the citizens.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hardy on October 29, 2011, 01:17:43 PM
A great line on Green Tea on the radio now - the people have been subjected to rectal fistitude.  :D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Denn Forever on October 31, 2011, 05:49:30 PM
Eurozone crisis is hitting the states now.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/15519124

MF Global files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection
MF Global could be one of the biggest eurozone debt casualties Continue reading the main story
Global EconomyEuro deal at a glance
What's the matter with Italy?
Eurozone crisis explained
Europe's four big dilemmas
US brokerage firm MF Global has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection after revealing £4bn of eurozone debt exposure.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 01, 2011, 09:20:24 AM
Government to repay unsecured Anglo bonds in full even though the price in the market is 52% of face value.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/0d16aec2-03df-11e1-98bc-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1cRZVYVnG

You know when you've been Tangoed.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hardy on November 01, 2011, 11:02:12 AM
Willie McAteer, former finance director of Anglo arrested this morning (for the second time).
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: boojangles on November 01, 2011, 01:25:10 PM
Quote from: Hardy on November 01, 2011, 11:02:12 AM
Willie McAteer, former finance director of Anglo arrested this morning (for the second time).

''Hi Sergeant, go up and lift yon Mc Ateer buck and make sure the press know all about it. That will keep them happy. Now where's the cheque book?''

FFS they really must think we'r stupid. If he is guilty of something then charge him. If not then quit with the theatrics.

So the spin now is that this unsecured debt is being paid to the unnamed large French and German banks who are basically propping up this country with financial assistance. And if we don't pay over this 1 billion Euro then they won't have the money to bail us out.
Have I picked this up right?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 01, 2011, 01:37:37 PM
QuoteSo the spin now is that this unsecured debt is being paid to the unnamed large French and German banks who are basically propping up this country with financial assistance. And if we don't pay over this 1 billion Euro then they won't have the money to bail us out.
Have I picked this up right?

Yep - farcical isn't it.

Nearly as farcical as this:

Report: Govt debt €3.6bn less after 'accounting error'
Tuesday, November 01, 2011 - 01:04 PM

Government debt is some €3.6bn less than was previously thought owing to an "accounting error", it was reported today.

The sum, which would represent some 2% of GDP, was "double counted" by two government agencies, TV3 News reported.

The error was discovered on Friday last during an examination of the classification of the state's assets and liabilities, the broadcaster said.

"The €3.6bn had been advanced by the National Treasury Management Agency last year to another, unnamed state agency and was debited by both agencies in their financial reconciliations," a TV3 statement said.

"Sources at the Department of Finance have verified and confirmed the TV3 story."

Contacted for comment today a Department of Finance spokesperson declined to confirm the details of story but said "there will be an adjustment" in the medium-term fiscal statement set to be issued on Friday


Read more: http://www.examiner.ie/breakingnews/ireland/report-govt-debt-36bn-less-after-accounting-error-526658.html#ixzz1cStEarYr
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: lynchbhoy on November 01, 2011, 03:02:19 PM
brighten up our day yet again Dec !

never did trust politicians, teachers and accountants.
yet the f**king country is run (ruined) by all of the above.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 02, 2011, 03:06:12 PM

Quotebrighten up our day yet again Dec !

never did trust politicians, teachers and accountants.
yet the f**king country is run (ruined) by all of the above.

This will make you feel better so!!

As we pay €713m we don't owe, our EU 'leaders' live in jet-set style
by Colette Browne

Wednesday, November 02, 2011

The state yesterday dutifully handed over €713 million to unsecured Anglo Irish bondholders and will again stick its hands in our pockets and fork out a further €1.25 billion in January.

The Financial Times dubbed yesterday's payment "a windfall profit for high risk investors" and said the bonds had been trading as low as 52c in the euro earlier this year.

So, it's safe to assume that someone, somewhere is today toasting the government and its dogged determination to beggar the nation by paying debts it doesn't owe.

While crippling asuterity measures are inflicted on long-suffering citizens, who are instructed not to complain and to instead lie back and think of the bondholders, politicians at home and abroad have not shown the same eagerness to subject themselves to cuts.

It would be easier to take the patronising lectures from windbag politicians, including our friends in Europe, if they themselves didn't flash our cash with such wild abandon.

For reasons that have yet to be explained, the EU now boasts three separate Presidents, two of whom appear to hate each other's guts. Despite the fact that Herman Van Rompuy's position possess as much power as anemic gnat, Jose Manuel Barosso's nose is out of joint because he believes that he's Europe's true leader on the world stage. Small men, big egos – the usual sad story.

This would all be terribly amusing if they weren't out spending taxpayers' money with the same cheeky insouciance as Elton John's florist in their efforts to ignore each other.

Last year it was revealed that the pair had travelled to a summit in Russia in separate VIP jets because they couldn't bear to be in the same confined airspace as each other.

Van Rompuy, and his entorage of less than 15 minions, took a 35-seater jet while Barrosso was forced to scramble a separate 15-seater Learjet at a cost of nearly €100,000 which departed Brussels within four hours of the larger aircraft. Van Rompuy, little known outside his native Belgium before completing the EU's presidential triumvirate, courted controversy soon after his appointment. On that occasion it was revealed that he had he used official cars and chauffeurs as a taxi service to take his extended family - wife, four children, two of their spouses and two grandchildren – on a 325-mile round trip to a Paris airport, where they departed for a private Caribbean holiday.

The sleek presidential motorcade ferried the Van Rompuy clan from Brussels to Paris and was waiting to collect them when they returned, presumably looking tanned and feeling relaxed.

Although it sounds like they all had a charming family trip, the reason that European taxpayers paid to shuttle them from one country to another, at an estimated cost of over €5,000, remains unclear.

Pouring salt into the wound, Van Rompuy lives in an exclusive part of Brussels that is conveniently located less than 10 miles from the Gare du Midi, which boasts frequent high-speed trains to Paris.

Regrettably, the Van Rompuys aren't the only ones globe-trotting in style at taxpayers' expense and a group comprising 13 MEPs and 12 parliamentary staff will today jet off to French Guiana, on the eastern coast of South America, for a three-day €120,000 "study trip".

According to their itinerary, the MEPs have been booked to appear on a local TV show where they will presumably bore viewers and kill ratings discussing the "social inclusion of the Amerindian communities" and the likelihood of "extending EU funds to the outermost regions" – while also conveniently enjoying champagne receptions, haute cusine and five-star beach-front hotels for the remainder of their junket.

While only 13 lucky MEPs will be able to soak up the sun in French Guina today, earlier this year 75 politicians enjoyed a trip to Uruguay at a cost of €1.4m – over €15,000 a day.

Ostensibly travelling for an annual Eurolat event, to discuss trade links between the continents, each MEP enjoyed a travel allowance of over €3,000 for business class flights and top hotels.

In fact, between 2004 and 2010, MEPs spent nearly €6 million on foreign travel during "fact finding" missions, which are invariably held in exclusive resorts in exotic locations.

For example, one such fact-finding trip was a visit to the sun-drenched Maldives where MEPs stayed in a five-star luxury private island resort and researched how to get an all-over tan without spilling their cocktails...I mean, that island's renowned electoral practices.

When not jet-setting at our expense, MEPs must be congratulated for finding ever more egregious excuses to award themselves generous pay increases. While the Irish were being publicly flagellated, and denied a cut to the bailout's extortionate interest rate earlier this year, MEPs quietly decided to bolster their own personal staffing expenses by nearly €18,000 a year – roughly equivalent to the annual salary that most expect the rest of us to subsist on.

That increase back in March means that every single one of the EU's 736 MEPs can now lavish over €255,000 on staff costs every year – an annual bill of nearly €200 million.

The increase was awarded after a clear-as-mud internal audit, conducted by the same MEPs who were seeking the increase, found it was warranted because the Lisbon Treaty, which they agitated to have implemented, allegedly upped their workloads.

The fact that many MEPs still have close family members on their payroll is, I'm sure, entirely unrelated to the fact that most were so eager to have the staff allowance increased.

As well as the €255,000 that can be spent on staff, MEPs also enjoy an allowance of over €105,000 for "daily subsistence" and "general expenditure" expenses – which they can demand without having to provide any pesky receipts or proof of expenditure.

Hard to imagine then that MEPs were found to have committed "massive" fraud when the expenses and allowances claimed by them were audited between 2002 and 2006.

The findings of the Galvin Report were so explosive that MEPs, including presidential reject Gay Mitchell, voted not to publish it when it was completed in 2008.

In fact, the eventual publication of the report earlier this year was solely due to the tenacity of Irish barrister Ciarán Toland, who waged an expensive three-year battle with the European Parliament over its cover up.

Having sought the report back in 2008, Mr Toland was told "the use members make of the allowances available to them is a sensitive matter" and that "elements of the report could be used to derail the debate on the reform of the (allowances) system and compromise rapid reform".

To paraphrase, we can't give you this report because it reveals that many of us are greedy self-serving fraudsters and we'll be lynched if the details get out. Rather predictably, some of the reports more inflammatory findings included the revelation that that MEPs hired non-existent "ghost" workers, employed family members on inflated salaries and, generally, went through the EU's €120 million expenses pot like cocaine at a Dublin 4 house party.

These duplicitous politicians, who preach austerity but practice extravagance, are the same ones who argue that Irish citizens alone must bear the burden of repaying the gargantuan debts run up by private financial institutions. More galling still is the fact that our own ministers seem to think that this idiocy makes perfect sense - only eight months in government and they already have Stockholm Syndrome.

With the announcement of a referendum on the bailout in Greece, which threatens to imminently sink the eurozone, the EU's difficulty could be Ireland's opportunity and, if the government has any cop on, it will seek rewards other than public pats on the head for meekly agreeing to every ruinous demand that's made of it.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 03, 2011, 10:31:46 AM
The EFSF, the fund that is charged with raising money in the market for the next slice of Ireland's bailout had to cancel fundraising yesterday because nobody wants to fund . They have until mid November to get the money.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/0890d1a2-0556-11e1-a3d1-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1cZUWlMnk
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Gaoth Dobhair Abu on November 03, 2011, 11:24:43 AM
Quote from: Declan on November 02, 2011, 03:06:12 PM

Quotebrighten up our day yet again Dec !

never did trust politicians, teachers and accountants.
yet the f**king country is run (ruined) by all of the above.

This will make you feel better so!!

As we pay €713m we don't owe, our EU 'leaders' live in jet-set style
by Colette Browne

Wednesday, November 02, 2011

The state yesterday dutifully handed over €713 million to unsecured Anglo Irish bondholders and will again stick its hands in our pockets and fork out a further €1.25 billion in January.

The Financial Times dubbed yesterday's payment "a windfall profit for high risk investors" and said the bonds had been trading as low as 52c in the euro earlier this year.

So, it's safe to assume that someone, somewhere is today toasting the government and its dogged determination to beggar the nation by paying debts it doesn't owe.

While crippling asuterity measures are inflicted on long-suffering citizens, who are instructed not to complain and to instead lie back and think of the bondholders, politicians at home and abroad have not shown the same eagerness to subject themselves to cuts.

It would be easier to take the patronising lectures from windbag politicians, including our friends in Europe, if they themselves didn't flash our cash with such wild abandon.

For reasons that have yet to be explained, the EU now boasts three separate Presidents, two of whom appear to hate each other's guts. Despite the fact that Herman Van Rompuy's position possess as much power as anemic gnat, Jose Manuel Barosso's nose is out of joint because he believes that he's Europe's true leader on the world stage. Small men, big egos – the usual sad story.

This would all be terribly amusing if they weren't out spending taxpayers' money with the same cheeky insouciance as Elton John's florist in their efforts to ignore each other.

Last year it was revealed that the pair had travelled to a summit in Russia in separate VIP jets because they couldn't bear to be in the same confined airspace as each other.

Van Rompuy, and his entorage of less than 15 minions, took a 35-seater jet while Barrosso was forced to scramble a separate 15-seater Learjet at a cost of nearly €100,000 which departed Brussels within four hours of the larger aircraft. Van Rompuy, little known outside his native Belgium before completing the EU's presidential triumvirate, courted controversy soon after his appointment. On that occasion it was revealed that he had he used official cars and chauffeurs as a taxi service to take his extended family - wife, four children, two of their spouses and two grandchildren – on a 325-mile round trip to a Paris airport, where they departed for a private Caribbean holiday.

The sleek presidential motorcade ferried the Van Rompuy clan from Brussels to Paris and was waiting to collect them when they returned, presumably looking tanned and feeling relaxed.

Although it sounds like they all had a charming family trip, the reason that European taxpayers paid to shuttle them from one country to another, at an estimated cost of over €5,000, remains unclear.

Pouring salt into the wound, Van Rompuy lives in an exclusive part of Brussels that is conveniently located less than 10 miles from the Gare du Midi, which boasts frequent high-speed trains to Paris.

Regrettably, the Van Rompuys aren't the only ones globe-trotting in style at taxpayers' expense and a group comprising 13 MEPs and 12 parliamentary staff will today jet off to French Guiana, on the eastern coast of South America, for a three-day €120,000 "study trip".

According to their itinerary, the MEPs have been booked to appear on a local TV show where they will presumably bore viewers and kill ratings discussing the "social inclusion of the Amerindian communities" and the likelihood of "extending EU funds to the outermost regions" – while also conveniently enjoying champagne receptions, haute cusine and five-star beach-front hotels for the remainder of their junket.

While only 13 lucky MEPs will be able to soak up the sun in French Guina today, earlier this year 75 politicians enjoyed a trip to Uruguay at a cost of €1.4m – over €15,000 a day.

Ostensibly travelling for an annual Eurolat event, to discuss trade links between the continents, each MEP enjoyed a travel allowance of over €3,000 for business class flights and top hotels.

In fact, between 2004 and 2010, MEPs spent nearly €6 million on foreign travel during "fact finding" missions, which are invariably held in exclusive resorts in exotic locations.

For example, one such fact-finding trip was a visit to the sun-drenched Maldives where MEPs stayed in a five-star luxury private island resort and researched how to get an all-over tan without spilling their cocktails...I mean, that island's renowned electoral practices.

When not jet-setting at our expense, MEPs must be congratulated for finding ever more egregious excuses to award themselves generous pay increases. While the Irish were being publicly flagellated, and denied a cut to the bailout's extortionate interest rate earlier this year, MEPs quietly decided to bolster their own personal staffing expenses by nearly €18,000 a year – roughly equivalent to the annual salary that most expect the rest of us to subsist on.

That increase back in March means that every single one of the EU's 736 MEPs can now lavish over €255,000 on staff costs every year – an annual bill of nearly €200 million.

The increase was awarded after a clear-as-mud internal audit, conducted by the same MEPs who were seeking the increase, found it was warranted because the Lisbon Treaty, which they agitated to have implemented, allegedly upped their workloads.

The fact that many MEPs still have close family members on their payroll is, I'm sure, entirely unrelated to the fact that most were so eager to have the staff allowance increased.

As well as the €255,000 that can be spent on staff, MEPs also enjoy an allowance of over €105,000 for "daily subsistence" and "general expenditure" expenses – which they can demand without having to provide any pesky receipts or proof of expenditure.

Hard to imagine then that MEPs were found to have committed "massive" fraud when the expenses and allowances claimed by them were audited between 2002 and 2006.

The findings of the Galvin Report were so explosive that MEPs, including presidential reject Gay Mitchell, voted not to publish it when it was completed in 2008.

In fact, the eventual publication of the report earlier this year was solely due to the tenacity of Irish barrister Ciarán Toland, who waged an expensive three-year battle with the European Parliament over its cover up.

Having sought the report back in 2008, Mr Toland was told "the use members make of the allowances available to them is a sensitive matter" and that "elements of the report could be used to derail the debate on the reform of the (allowances) system and compromise rapid reform".

To paraphrase, we can't give you this report because it reveals that many of us are greedy self-serving fraudsters and we'll be lynched if the details get out. Rather predictably, some of the reports more inflammatory findings included the revelation that that MEPs hired non-existent "ghost" workers, employed family members on inflated salaries and, generally, went through the EU's €120 million expenses pot like cocaine at a Dublin 4 house party.

These duplicitous politicians, who preach austerity but practice extravagance, are the same ones who argue that Irish citizens alone must bear the burden of repaying the gargantuan debts run up by private financial institutions. More galling still is the fact that our own ministers seem to think that this idiocy makes perfect sense - only eight months in government and they already have Stockholm Syndrome.

With the announcement of a referendum on the bailout in Greece, which threatens to imminently sink the eurozone, the EU's difficulty could be Ireland's opportunity and, if the government has any cop on, it will seek rewards other than public pats on the head for meekly agreeing to every ruinous demand that's made of it.

F.uck that makes my blood boil!  >:(

Does our Government (recent past or present) have any balls to stand up for the rights of the Irish nation - No!
Are our Government (recent past or present) going to "give" away our only major natural resources (which if used properly could get us out of this shithole we're in) - Yes
Are we up shitcreek without a paddle - most definately YES.
With politicians like we have we don't need any enemies.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Denn Forever on November 03, 2011, 12:16:30 PM
Threat to Greece that if they leave the Euro, they'll have to leave the EU.  Seemingly it is in the treaty or rules.  Never knew that.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 03, 2011, 01:13:27 PM
QuoteThreat to Greece that if they leave the Euro, they'll have to leave the EU.  Seemingly it is in the treaty or rules.  Never knew that

Always reasd the small print!!

Here's a good article on the dynamics of the markets -
http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2011/oct/30/daniel-kahneman-cognitive-illusion-extract (http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2011/oct/30/daniel-kahneman-cognitive-illusion-extract)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 04, 2011, 08:55:34 PM
Italian govt on brink of collapse (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1104/breaking10.html)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 07, 2011, 10:09:24 AM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1107/italy-business.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1107/italy-business.html)

Italian borrowing costs hit record high
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 07, 2011, 10:34:05 AM
Quote from: muppet on November 07, 2011, 10:09:24 AM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1107/italy-business.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1107/italy-business.html)

Italian borrowing costs hit record high

a bit misleading. Euro record high. Italy was paying way more than 10% not so long ago. T   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 07, 2011, 10:55:34 AM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/8873041/Europes-rescue-fiasco-leaves-Italy-defenceless.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/8873041/Europes-rescue-fiasco-leaves-Italy-defenceless.html)

The spreads on EFSF 5-year bonds have already tripled to 151 above German debt, leaving Japan and other early buyers nursing a big loss. The fund suffered a failed auction last week, cutting the issue from €5bn to €3bn on lack of demand.

Gary Jenkins from Evolution Securities said the "frightening" development is that the EFSF is itself being shut out of the capital markets. "If it continues to perform like that then the bailout fund might need a bail out," he said.
Europe's attempt to widen the creditor net by drawing in the world's reserve states evoked near universal scorn in Cannes and a damning put-down by Brazil's Dilma Rousseff. "I have not the slightest intention of contributing directly to the EFSF; if they are not willing to do it, why should I?"

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 07, 2011, 11:02:43 AM
Quote from: seafoid on November 07, 2011, 10:34:05 AM
Quote from: muppet on November 07, 2011, 10:09:24 AM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1107/italy-business.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1107/italy-business.html)

Italian borrowing costs hit record high

a bit misleading. Euro record high. Italy was paying way more than 10% not so long ago. T

I heard an interesting twist on that.

Apparently historically lots of monied Italians have been averse to handing it over to the State as tax. As you can imagine some of this money was aggressively defended. The Italian solution to this Italian problem was to offer high interest rates on their own Government bonds. Many Italians took up this offer which was entirely legitimate and lead to most of the Italian's Government debt being held internally in Italy. The Government then regularly devalued the currency which led to the ridiculous amounts of Lira required to buy anything. The constant devaluing effectively forced any Italians with cash to lend to the Government to get the high interest rate to try to stop their cash from devaluing.

The Government borrowed from citizens at a high rate but devalued regularly to reduce the debt. Thus they  got their tax.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 07, 2011, 10:46:01 PM
Very sad to see this
Of course if his name had been Anglo Irish he would still be going strong.

irishtimes.com - Last Updated: Monday, November 7, 2011, 17:30
Radio presenter declared bankrupt


Today FM presenter Tony Fenton: formally declared bankrupt
MARY CAROLAN

Today FM presenter Tony Fenton has been declared bankrupt at the High Court over his failure to pay tax debts amounting to almost €880,000.

The radio disc jockey, whose real name is Anthony Fagan, did not contest a petition for bankruptcy brought by the Revenue Commissioners arising from three court judgements against him, totalling €879,695.87.

The Revenue has also registered a judgment mortgage against Mr Fagan's south Dublin home which is also subject of a bank mortgage.

Mr Fagan, Merrion Woods, Stillorgan Road, Blackrock in Dublin, was working at the Today FM offices at Digges Lane, Dublin 2, when he was served with the petition by the Revenue Commissioners on October 28th last, it was stated in legal documents.

Mr Fagan was not in court today when the matter came before Ms Justice Elizabeth Dunne in the High Court bankruptcy list.

The judge made an order formally adjudicating Mr Fagan bankrupt. Mr Fagan was represented in court by his solicitor, St John Dundon, of Dundon Callanan Solicitors, and later attended to sign papers at the bankruptcy offices in Smithfield.

The Revenue was represented by barrister Gary Compton, who said the petition had been brought following Mr Fagan's "failure to satisfy a bankruptcy summons".

Last year, three judgements were made against the presenter in the High Court, totalling €770,044.09. The interest accrued on these judgments to date has increased that figure to €879,695.87.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Orangemac on November 08, 2011, 12:05:15 AM
Off topic but hopefully things work out for Tony. He has had a hard year to say the least fighting cancer twice and his mother dying. Always seemed like a decent bloke since "The Hotline" days.

On the Eurozone the can is moving about so much it is getting harder to kick down the road. No amount of rainy day money in a fund is going to be enough.

The ECB needs to get the printing machines going, there may be inflation (which the Germans will love) coming down the line if this happens but to save the euro this may be the only option remaining.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 08, 2011, 07:30:56 AM
QuoteToday FM presenter Tony Fenton has been declared bankrupt at the High Court over his failure to pay tax debts amounting to almost €880,000

Jesus that's some amount of money to run up as a tax debt!

Thought provoking piece from O'Toole this morning:
Triumph of the spivs as democracy is sidelined
FINTAN O'TOOLE

EVER WISHED, in a dull moment, that you could have lived through some of the big moments of European history? Well, be careful what you wish for. We're living through one of them now and it's not much fun.

Historical moments aren't sudden changes. They're the points at which something that has been long in the making finally emerges, when something murky crystallises into clarity. That happened last week, and Ireland was a significant part of it.

What happened was that two of the big shaping forces of western Europe, forces that have been working broadly in tandem for 300 years, clearly fell apart. One force is capitalism; the other democracy. From the Enlightenment onwards, it has been an accepted truth that democracy and capitalism were at the very least compatible with each other. The things that were needed in order for capitalism to develop – the breaking of aristocratic power, the free movement of labour, an open market in ideas, functioning parliaments, independent legal systems, states that could command popular consent and thus underpin stability, taxation to fund mass education and infrastructure – were also conditions for political democracy. They may not have been sufficient conditions, but they were necessary ones.

This is not to say that there have not been huge tensions in the relationship between capitalism and democracy, or that there have not been periods when the holders of capital preferred authoritarian or fascist regimes. Nor is it to deny that the large-scale inequalities inherent in most forms of capitalism have tended to limit the practice of democracy, through private control of media, the funding of political parties and the ability of the very rich to threaten and intimidate elected governments. The point is simply that the two forces were generally compatible. The trump card of capitalism against communism was clear and simple: we hold free elections and you don't.

What became so dramatically clear last week was that this compatibility has ended. The leading form of capitalism – the finance capitalism that has expanded so monstrously over the last 30 years – is no longer compatible with democracy in Europe.

And by democracy in this context I mean just the limited, basic form: universal suffrage and sovereign governments. This is a pretty big deal.

Consider the three things that happened in Greece and Ireland last week. Firstly, it was made explicit that the most reckless, irresponsible and ultimately impermissible thing a government could do was to seek the consent of its own people to decisions that would shape their lives. And, indeed, even if it had gone ahead, the Greek referendum would have been largely meaningless. As one Greek MP put it, the question would have been: do you want to take your own life or to be killed? Secondly, there was open and shameless intervention by European leaders (Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy) in the internal affairs of another state. Sarkozy hailed the "courageous and responsible" stance of the main Greek opposition party – in effect a call for the replacement of the elected Greek government.

The third part of this moment of clarity was what happened in Ireland: the payment of a billion dollars to unsecured Anglo Irish Bank bondholders. Apart from its obvious obscenity, the most striking aspect of this was that, for the first time, we had a government performing an action it openly declared to be wrong. Michael Noonan wasn't handing over these vast sums of cash from a bankrupt nation to vulture capitalist gamblers because he thought it was a good idea. He was doing it because there was a gun to his head. The threat came from the European Central Bank and it was as crude as it was brutal: give the spivs your taxpayers' money or we'll bring down your banking system.

Again, as in Greece, even the basic forms of democracy were incompatible with this process. There could not be a Greek referendum because there is no acceptable question that can be answered by a democratic vote. And there could not be a debate in the Irish parliament about the extortion of a billion dollars because there is nothing to be debated. Referendums and parliamentary votes are rituals of public consent. But the question of consent is now not just irrelevant. It is reckless, outrageous, downright scandalous.

And this isn't just a simple matter of the Merkozy monster lording it over us little PIGS. For at this historic moment, even the German chancellor is little more than a cipher. She's caught in the democratic crisis too. Remember this time last year when Angela Merkel started to make noises about bondholders sharing the pain of rescuing the banking system? She had to back down very quickly and make it clear that she didn't mean present bondholders – heaven forbid. Even the German chancellor isn't allowed to say certain things.

Europe, and the rest of the western world, is thus at a parting of the ways. We can have the form of rapacious finance capitalism that has become the dominant force in our economies and societies.

Or we can have democracy. But we can't have both.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 08, 2011, 09:18:08 AM
And here's another development that lends credence to O'Toole's piece
http://www.independent.ie/business/european/shadowy-frankfurt-group-said-to-be-pivotal-in-europe-2927901.html (http://www.independent.ie/business/european/shadowy-frankfurt-group-said-to-be-pivotal-in-europe-2927901.html)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 08, 2011, 09:23:52 AM
Apparently Tony Fenton got burnt in property investment. Like so many others. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: ludermor on November 08, 2011, 09:24:11 AM
Quote from: seafoid on November 07, 2011, 10:46:01 PM
Very sad to see this
Of course if his name had been Anglo Irish he would still be going strong.
irishtimes.com - Last Updated: Monday, November 7, 2011, 17:30
Radio presenter declared bankrupt


Last year, three judgements were made against the presenter in the High Court, totalling €770,044.09. The interest accrued on these judgments to date has increased that figure to €879,695.87.
Of course if he was a builder he would be hung drawn and quatered. No word on how he managed to run up such a massive tax bill?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Billys Boots on November 08, 2011, 09:30:17 AM
QuoteOf course if he was a builder he would be hung drawn and quatered.

I'm sorry, I must have missed all these executions of builders - when did this happen?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: ludermor on November 08, 2011, 09:39:52 AM
Quote from: Billys Boots on November 08, 2011, 09:30:17 AM
QuoteOf course if he was a builder he would be hung drawn and quatered.

I'm sorry, I must have missed all these executions of builders - when did this happen?
Plenty of virtual executions of builders on the gaaboard, there is very little sympathy for their plight ( deservedly so in a lot of cases) but when a well known likaeable radio presenter gets in trouble over property deal it is sad.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 08, 2011, 09:45:47 AM
Very good article.

(An unqualified layman's view)
The biggest problem though is that the powerful part of the financial sector, for all its money, doesn't create any real wealth. It merely creates bubbles and/or transfers money from the foolish to the smart. When it goes horribly wrong it holds governments to ransom.

Look at Goldman Sachs. Less than 10 years ago it created the market for Credit Default Swaps for CDOs containing subprime mortgages. This was insurance without the burden of insurance regulation or the reserve funding behind normal insurance. After a couple of very successful years selling these Swaps, Goldman then moved, as it does, to the middle of the market and offloaded the risk on others, AIG in particular. When the market turned it was the US taxpayer who got hit for $100bn for AIG and had to put around $20bn into Goldman. Once Goldman had repaid the $20bn the massive gravy train resumed as normal for its executives. They win on the upside while the taxpayer loses on the downside.

In Ireland we really got on board with this type of crazy capitalism. Except our then Government, who weren't sophisticated enough to create bubbles in things like CDO or CDS market, went for what they knew best. They inadvertently or deliberately inflated a huge property bubble. Smart people made a lot of money and got out. Less smart (or unlucky or whatever) got nailed. Ultimately though the taxpayer has to foot the bill.

Even if the austerity works, and the taxpayers manage to re-capitalise the banking system (pump money into the holes in the Swiss cheese that we were told was solid brickwork) what will be done to make sure it doesn't happen again?

Personally I think the banking sector should be split into two main parts: a viciously regulated and fire-walled systemic part and a sink or swim on its own investment part.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 08, 2011, 09:48:50 AM
That's about right muppet  - And guess where the new head of the ECB Mr Draghi worked  previously - You guessed it Goldman Sachs!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Billys Boots on November 08, 2011, 10:27:30 AM
It's like the scene where most of the receivers now being appointed to ailing businesses hail from the self-same financial-houses that advised the companies to get arse-over-heel into 'business-development' debt in the first-place. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Rossfan on November 08, 2011, 10:30:48 AM
Quote from: Billys Boots on November 08, 2011, 09:30:17 AM
QuoteOf course if he was a builder he would be hung drawn and quatered.

I'm sorry, I must have missed all these executions of builders - when did this happen?

Around the same time as  those F***ers - Fitz, Fingers, Fianna Fáil , etc ..... never  >:(
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 08, 2011, 01:12:21 PM
More good news for the Euro!
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1108/breaking9.html (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1108/breaking9.html)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Rossfan on November 08, 2011, 04:28:45 PM
One company moves it's something oe other .
The end of the world as we know it eh?  ::)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 08, 2011, 06:36:00 PM
Italian bonds 6.78%

IMF will 'visit' in the next few days.

Wine tasting no doubt.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hardy on November 08, 2011, 06:38:39 PM
Bring a little water, Silvie.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Lone Shark on November 09, 2011, 04:02:11 PM
Can anybody explain something to me?

Existing Italian bonds in the marketplace drop to a price that equates to a 7% yield. The market panics, so the ECB steps in and buys existing Italian debt.

From what I can tell, all this does is bail out those who made the mistake of buying the debt?

Now we have the Italians panicking because they need to issue debt tomorrow - surely it would have made more sense for the ECB to hold fire and step in now? Why spend money bailing out already issued debt when you could just buy some of the new stuff?

I suspect trickery going on here, but can anyone enlighten me otherwise as to why this would be policy?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 09, 2011, 09:08:35 PM
Quote from: Lone Shark on November 09, 2011, 04:02:11 PM
Can anybody explain something to me?

Existing Italian bonds in the marketplace drop to a price that equates to a 7% yield. The market panics, so the ECB steps in and buys existing Italian debt.

From what I can tell, all this does is bail out those who made the mistake of buying the debt?

Now we have the Italians panicking because they need to issue debt tomorrow - surely it would have made more sense for the ECB to hold fire and step in now? Why spend money bailing out already issued debt when you could just buy some of the new stuff?

I suspect trickery going on here, but can anyone enlighten me otherwise as to why this would be policy?

You think they were looking that far ahead?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Christmas Lights on November 10, 2011, 01:09:08 PM
As someone who knows really nothing about all of this, could anyone with a grasp of what is happening explain to me what would happen if the whole Eurozone basically went bang?  Would all countiries using the Euro have to revert back to their own currencies?

I see some theroists say that the Eurozone was just one big experiment from the start and that it wasnt sustainable.
Also, there was a rumour going around that the Irish Government where printing Punts a while back just in case  :D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Lone Shark on November 10, 2011, 01:17:44 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 09, 2011, 09:08:35 PM
Quote from: Lone Shark on November 09, 2011, 04:02:11 PM
Can anybody explain something to me?

Existing Italian bonds in the marketplace drop to a price that equates to a 7% yield. The market panics, so the ECB steps in and buys existing Italian debt.

From what I can tell, all this does is bail out those who made the mistake of buying the debt?

Now we have the Italians panicking because they need to issue debt tomorrow - surely it would have made more sense for the ECB to hold fire and step in now? Why spend money bailing out already issued debt when you could just buy some of the new stuff?

I suspect trickery going on here, but can anyone enlighten me otherwise as to why this would be policy?

You think they were looking that far ahead?

Not at all. But why spend money buying existing debt when it doesn't matter if the private sector absorb losses?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 10, 2011, 02:53:15 PM
Quote from: Christmas Lights on November 10, 2011, 01:09:08 PM
As someone who knows really nothing about all of this, could anyone with a grasp of what is happening explain to me what would happen if the whole Eurozone basically went bang?  Would all countiries using the Euro have to revert back to their own currencies?

I see some theroists say that the Eurozone was just one big experiment from the start and that it wasnt sustainable.
Also, there was a rumour going around that the Irish Government where printing Punts a while back just in case  :D
It depends on whether the Euro drops a few countries or it disappears.

Say Ireland leaves the Euro but the Euro endures. Ireland will owe all the euros it owed within the euro to foreigners. Within Ireland all eurodebt would be transferred into new punts. The new punt would fall in value because nobody would want to buy it and all euro debts would increase in value compared to new punts. So it would be hard . But with a cheaper currency it would be easier to export stuff. The euro meanwhile would rise in value against the dollar because it had less of the poor economies in it. That would hurt German exports since they would cost more. 

If the Euro disappears then a load of banks will go bust. All the countries would have new currencies.    Everyone would want German marks and the price would go through the roof. German exports would suffer.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 10, 2011, 06:02:02 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 10, 2011, 02:53:15 PM
Quote from: Christmas Lights on November 10, 2011, 01:09:08 PM
As someone who knows really nothing about all of this, could anyone with a grasp of what is happening explain to me what would happen if the whole Eurozone basically went bang?  Would all countiries using the Euro have to revert back to their own currencies?

I see some theroists say that the Eurozone was just one big experiment from the start and that it wasnt sustainable.
Also, there was a rumour going around that the Irish Government where printing Punts a while back just in case  :D
It depends on whether the Euro drops a few countries or it disappears.

Say Ireland leaves the Euro but the Euro endures. Ireland will owe all the euros it owed within the euro to foreigners. Within Ireland all eurodebt would be transferred into new punts. The new punt would fall in value because nobody would want to buy it and all euro debts would increase in value compared to new punts. So it would be hard . But with a cheaper currency it would be easier to export stuff. The euro meanwhile would rise in value against the dollar because it had less of the poor economies in it. That would hurt German exports since they would cost more. 

If the Euro disappears then a load of banks will go bust. All the countries would have new currencies.    Everyone would want German marks and the price would go through the roof. German exports would suffer.

If we left the Euro we would have to default on our debt. That might not be the worst thing for us but our banks would almost certainly collapse as their doors are only open because of emergency lending by the ECB.

As for Punts, I think it would be irresponsible for the Government not to have printed them as a back-up. No one knows where the Euro will be at Christmas and our destiny is certainly out of our hands.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 10, 2011, 06:17:01 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 10, 2011, 06:02:02 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 10, 2011, 02:53:15 PM
Quote from: Christmas Lights on November 10, 2011, 01:09:08 PM
As someone who knows really nothing about all of this, could anyone with a grasp of what is happening explain to me what would happen if the whole Eurozone basically went bang?  Would all countiries using the Euro have to revert back to their own currencies?

I see some theroists say that the Eurozone was just one big experiment from the start and that it wasnt sustainable.
Also, there was a rumour going around that the Irish Government where printing Punts a while back just in case  :D
It depends on whether the Euro drops a few countries or it disappears.

Say Ireland leaves the Euro but the Euro endures. Ireland will owe all the euros it owed within the euro to foreigners. Within Ireland all eurodebt would be transferred into new punts. The new punt would fall in value because nobody would want to buy it and all euro debts would increase in value compared to new punts. So it would be hard . But with a cheaper currency it would be easier to export stuff. The euro meanwhile would rise in value against the dollar because it had less of the poor economies in it. That would hurt German exports since they would cost more. 

If the Euro disappears then a load of banks will go bust. All the countries would have new currencies.    Everyone would want German marks and the price would go through the roof. German exports would suffer.

If we left the Euro we would have to default on our debt. That might not be the worst thing for us but our banks would almost certainly collapse as their doors are only open because of emergency lending by the ECB.

As for Punts, I think it would be irresponsible for the Government not to have printed them as a back-up. No one knows where the Euro will be at Christmas and our destiny is certainly out of our hands.

I imagine the budget deficit would have to be slashed to zero as well .

What would you do with the banks, Muppet?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 10, 2011, 06:31:05 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 10, 2011, 06:17:01 PM
I imagine the budget deficit would have to be slashed to zero as well .

What would you do with the banks, Muppet?

Budget deficit would have to be slashed to zero unless we intended to borrow. Could you imagine relying on the markets after such a calamity?

Firstly what to do with euro mortgages held by foreign banks. Imagine if you took a €300,000 mortgage with BOSI. Then if we leave the Euro and devalue by 50% (just to demonstrate). Would your mortgage now be £600,000 owed to BOSI or £300,000 leaving them nursing a 50% loss instantly? If it was the former, holders of those mortgages would be destroyed, if the latter the non-Irish banks will suffer huge losses on top of their previous losses.

As for 'our' banks. They will have to announce a savage tax on assets held abroad giving a few weeks/months grace be implementation. Any such assets would have to be repatriated into Irish banks pronto while begging the ECB for lee-way. After taking stock of how much money actually returned we would know where we were with the emergency lending. I would then be telling bondholders to start naming their preferred haircut. As you hinted at though, if that was happening we would definitely have to slash the budget defect to zero instantly.

Edit: Thinking more about it any tax wouldn't be quick enough. They would have to take the private pensions and freeze assets in the banks, including the ECBs money. The banks problem would be secondary to the deficit one and they would have to take our money deposits too most likely.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 10, 2011, 07:59:22 PM
Amazingly we still have higher growth than the Eurozone  average. We would be in reasonably good shape were it not for the banks (and the twits that cheerlead them, especially the FF/PDs and the media).

Growth is the way out for Europe and it isn't happening, but because we actually have some growth, tiny as it is, we might survive any initial shrinking of the euro.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Fear ón Srath Bán on November 10, 2011, 08:03:16 PM
We've export led growth, but indigenous contraction, which is only going to get worse with the swingeing cuts in capital expenditure. Hard to say where that particular paradox will ultimately lead.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 10, 2011, 08:06:58 PM
Quote from: Fear ón Srath Bán on November 10, 2011, 08:03:16 PM
We've export led growth, but indigenous contraction, which is only going to get worse with the swingeing cuts in capital expenditure. Hard to say where that particular paradox will ultimately lead.

The reality is completely irrelevant. The decision-makers need sound-bites, not facts.

'The fundamentals are sound...........'
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Fear ón Srath Bán on November 10, 2011, 08:11:35 PM
If Irish growth outstrips the Eurozone (or EU) on a sustained basis it won't matter, true.

Well, it won't matter for anyone except the poor sods on the Sod without a pot to piss in (and no prospect of buying a pot).
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 10, 2011, 08:27:13 PM
Quote from: Fear ón Srath Bán on November 10, 2011, 08:11:35 PM
If Irish growth outstrips the Eurozone (or EU) on a sustained basis it won't matter, true.

Well, it won't matter for anyone except the poor sods on the Sod without a pot to piss in (and no prospect of buying a pot).

Is this lowering of the growth forecast not going to continue this vicious cycle of lower growth, leading to bigger cuts leading to lower growth?

Or lower growth forecasts leading to credit rating cuts leading to higher interest and then bigger deficits leading to lower growth?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Tubberman on November 10, 2011, 08:29:12 PM
Looks like the govt are finally getting some control over at least one of the banks WE OWN:

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1110/banks.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1110/banks.html)

In a major U-turn this evening, State-owned bank AIB has decided to pass on an ECB interest rate cut to standard variable customers despite refusing to do so yesterday.

In a statement the bank said: "Following the meeting between AIB, members of the Government and the Economic Management Council, the Board of AIB has decided to implement a 0.25% interest rate cut to its variable rate mortgages."

The European Central Bank last week cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%.

Yesterday AIB's executive chairman David Hodgkinson met Taoiseach Enda Kenny and Tánaiste Eamon Gilmore.

Despite a demand for AIB pass on the rate cut Mr Hodgkinson said yesterday its customers already benefited because the bank had not increased rates when they were raised by the ECB on two occasions this year.

However, this evening's statement reverses that position.

Earlier Tánaiste Eamon Gilmore had called on banks to reconsider their position on mortgage interest rate reductions.

Mr Gilmore said if they do not reconsider, the Government would take 'action as appropriate'.

EBS, Permanent TSB, KBC and former Irish Nationwide have already announced that their customers will benefit from the ECB's decision.

However both Ulster Bank and Bank of Ireland have not passed the rate cut on to customers.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 10, 2011, 09:31:25 PM
Quote from: Fear ón Srath Bán on November 10, 2011, 08:03:16 PM
We've export led growth, but indigenous contraction, which is only going to get worse with the swingeing cuts in capital expenditure. Hard to say where that particular paradox will ultimately lead.
Plus because the banking system is paralysed there is virtually no lending to the SME sector so where are the jobs going to come from ?
Every person unemployed costs the state more than Euro 10K per annum in Soc Welfare. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 10, 2011, 09:36:12 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 10, 2011, 09:31:25 PM
Quote from: Fear ón Srath Bán on November 10, 2011, 08:03:16 PM
We've export led growth, but indigenous contraction, which is only going to get worse with the swingeing cuts in capital expenditure. Hard to say where that particular paradox will ultimately lead.
Plus because the banking system is paralysed there is virtually no lending to the SME sector so where are the jobs going to come from ?
Every person unemployed costs the state more than Euro 10K per annum in Soc Welfare.

What would you do with the banks?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: armaghniac on November 10, 2011, 09:56:53 PM
QuoteIf Irish growth outstrips the Eurozone (or EU) on a sustained basis it won't matter, true.

Irish growth is expected to be almost double the Eurozone average in 2012, albeit twice very little is not much.
The local economy is subdued, but that partly reflects people paying down debt. Contrast Ireland's growing trade surplus with the UK which now has a record trade deficit. (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/nov/09/uk-trade-deficit-record-surge-imports)

(http://www.tradingeconomics.com/charts/ireland-balance-of-trade.png)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 10, 2011, 10:00:40 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 10, 2011, 09:36:12 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 10, 2011, 09:31:25 PM
Quote from: Fear ón Srath Bán on November 10, 2011, 08:03:16 PM
We've export led growth, but indigenous contraction, which is only going to get worse with the swingeing cuts in capital expenditure. Hard to say where that particular paradox will ultimately lead.
Plus because the banking system is paralysed there is virtually no lending to the SME sector so where are the jobs going to come from ?
Every person unemployed costs the state more than Euro 10K per annum in Soc Welfare.

What would you do with the banks?

I think I would resolve them. Break them up and give the bondholders and the ECB whatever is left after the depositors are paid off.
Throw out anyone earning over say  100K and start off again from scratch.

"We gotta retain the talent. what are you f**king talking about motherf**ker. That's the same talent that f**ked the whole place up"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zOZnRUZKf48
at 2:45

In 2008 Wolfgang Munchau said "But a recession is not the worst possible outcome.The worst is for this crisis to go on and on, for Minsky's moment to become an eternity". 

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/8362b1d0-4b59-11dd-a490-000077b07658,s01=1.html#axzz1dLG4cpdp
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Fear ón Srath Bán on November 10, 2011, 10:11:03 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 10, 2011, 08:27:13 PM
Quote from: Fear ón Srath Bán on November 10, 2011, 08:11:35 PM
If Irish growth outstrips the Eurozone (or EU) on a sustained basis it won't matter, true.

Well, it won't matter for anyone except the poor sods on the Sod without a pot to piss in (and no prospect of buying a pot).

Is this lowering of the growth forecast not going to continue this vicious cycle of lower growth, leading to bigger cuts leading to lower growth?

Or lower growth forecasts leading to credit rating cuts leading to higher interest and then bigger deficits leading to lower growth?

Or we could all just talk it up, pollyanna-like, endlessly. Wait a minute... hasn't that been tried recently, with houses or something!  ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 12, 2011, 09:50:55 PM
Long article but well worth reading.

http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2011/11/michael-lewis-201111 (http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2011/11/michael-lewis-201111)

The relationship between the people and their money in California is such that you can pluck almost any city at random and enter a crisis. San Jose has the highest per capita income of any city in the United States, after New York. It has the highest credit rating of any city in California with a population over 250,000. It is one of the few cities in America with a triple-A rating from Moody's and Standard & Poor's, but only because its bondholders have the power to compel the city to levy a tax on property owners to pay off the bonds. The city itself is not all that far from being bankrupt.

It's late afternoon when I meet Mayor Chuck Reed in his office at the top of the city-hall tower. The crowd below has just begun to chant. The public employees, as usual, are protesting him. Reed is so used to it that he hardly notices. He's a former air-force officer and Vietnam-era veteran with an intellectual bent and the clipped manner of a midwestern farmer. He has a master's degree from Princeton, a law degree from Stanford, and a lifelong interest in public policy. Still, he presents less as the mayor of a big city in California than as a hard-bitten, upstanding sheriff of a small town who doesn't want any trouble. Elected to the city council in 2000, he became mayor six years later; in 2010 he was re-elected with 77 percent of the vote. He's a Democrat, but at this point it doesn't much matter which party he belongs to, or what his ideological leanings are, or for that matter how popular he is with the people of San Jose. He's got a problem so big that it overwhelms ordinary politics: the city owes so much more money to its employees than it can afford to pay that it could cut its debts in half and still wind up broke. "I did a calculation of cost per public employee," he says as we settle in. "We're not as bad as Greece, I don't think." (//http:///%3E%3Cbr%20/%3EIt's%20late%20afternoon%20when%20I%20meet%20Mayor%20Chuck%20Reed%20in%20his%20office%20at%20the%20top%20of%20the%20city-hall%20tower.%20The%20crowd%20below%20has%20just%20begun%20to%20chant.%20The%20public%20employees,%20as%20usual,%20are%20protesting%20him.%20Reed%20is%20so%20used%20to%20it%20that%20he%20hardly%20notices.%20He's%20a%20former%20air-force%20officer%20and%20Vietnam-era%20veteran%20with%20an%20intellectual%20bent%20and%20the%20clipped%20manner%20of%20a%20midwestern%20farmer.%20He%20has%20a%20master's%20degree%20from%20Princeton,%20a%20law%20degree%20from%20Stanford,%20and%20a%20lifelong%20interest%20in%20public%20policy.%20Still,%20he%20presents%20less%20as%20the%20mayor%20of%20a%20big%20city%20in%20California%20than%20as%20a%20hard-bitten,%20upstanding%20sheriff%20of%20a%20small%20town%20who%20doesn't%20want%20any%20trouble.%20Elected%20to%20the%20city%20council%20in%202000,%20he%20became%20mayor%20six%20years%20later;%20in%202010%20he%20was%20re-elected%20with%2077%20percent%20of%20the%20vote.%20He's%20a%20Democrat,%20but%20at%20this%20point%20it%20doesn't%20much%20matter%20which%20party%20he%20belongs%20to,%20or%20what%20his%20ideological%20leanings%20are,%20or%20for%20that%20matter%20how%20popular%20he%20is%20with%20the%20people%20of%20San%20Jose.%20He's%20got%20a%20problem%20so%20big%20that%20it%20overwhelms%20ordinary%20politics:%20the%20city%20owes%20so%20much%20more%20money%20to%20its%20employees%20than%20it%20can%20afford%20to%20pay%20that%20it%20could%20cut%20its%20debts%20in%20half%20and%20still%20wind%20up%20broke.%20%22I%20did%20a%20calculation%20of%20cost%20per%20public%20employee,%22%20he%20says%20as%20we%20settle%20in.%20%22We're%20not%20as%20bad%20as%20Greece,%20I%20don't%20think.%22)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 14, 2011, 08:22:52 AM
Michael Lewis's articles are always worth reading. Scary stuff

Here's the bould Mr Kerrigan's latest thoughts:
Gene Kerrigan: We pay while rich are recession-proofed
Privilege is protected and lower orders pay the price in lost income and jobs, writes Gene Kerrigan

Sunday November 13 2011
From the start, this column made two predictions (and let's immediately abandon all modesty and state that we were damn right, unfortunately). We believed this global economic nervous breakdown was going to play out just one way -- logic had nothing to do with it, much less fairness.

It's time to say we told you so.

Prediction One was that the primary aim of the political, business, professional and academic elite would be to preserve their own privilege. They would have to be seen to make some contribution, but the structural inequalities must be defended -- even if this threatens any chance of a recovery.

Prediction Two -- the cost of the crisis would be minimal for the recession-proofed rich, and we lower orders would pay the price in lost income, jobs and services.

We suggested that this mightn't work, but we were aware that this is precisely what was done in the major recession of the Eighties. And it worked then. Fortunes were preserved and enhanced. One cost was kickstarting the culture of patients lying for days on hospital trolleys -- a culture that survives a generation later.

So, this time, how's it going?

Pretty damn well, in some respects. For some people, the Celtic Tiger never went away. But, remember that bit about how the structural inequalities would be defended "even if this threatens any chance of a recovery"? That's the killer. The comfortable classes -- not just here, but their ideological bedmates across Europe -- have created for themselves a very, very serious problem.

Before going any further, we'd better stand up that claim that things are going pretty damn well for some. We could merely point to the little dance performed by the bankers last week. But we'll do more than that.

The Taoiseach called the bankers in, and humbly asked that they pass on an interest rate decrease to customers. They told him to bugger off, or words to that effect. Shortly afterwards, AIB's chairman announced a U-turn. That's my old pal Dave Hodgkinson, a smart lad. Dave's been whining lately about the cap on bankers' pay -- about how dreadful it is that most (but not all) top bankers are limited to a measly half a million a year.

It took a while for the penny to drop, but AIB cottoned on that when you're easing your way back to the days of Bigger Bucks for Bankers it's silly to publicly humiliate the pols who can stop that.

Then the list of pensions being paid to elite politicians was published. Paying pensions that amount to multiples of what working people earn is an obscenity. To pay them to people in their 40s and 50s, to people capable of making a good living, is outrageous. Such privilege and inequality reflect similar excesses throughout the higher levels of both the private and public sectors. Recession-proof people, unscathed by the collapsed economy.

What kind of country can fleece the poorest while paying a president multiples of the average wage? Mary McAleese was on €325,000 in 2010, plus an allowance of €317,000. She gave back €65,000. Over her tenure, she could have banked between two and three million -- all her housing, food and transport costs were paid. At the age of 60 she retires on a pension of €162,000 (though she may decide to hand back a portion of that).

We could mention the two Anglo Irish Bank executives who each got a bonus of €1.9m last year, but let's not bother. We could mention the head of the FAI, Lord John of Delaney, splashing two grand last week on an open bar for fans in Estonia. Lord John is on €400,000. What a banker [sic].

We could point to Dr Michael Murphy of UCC, who last Friday called for student fees to be imposed. And we might ask if that's the recession-proof Dr Murphy, whose college can afford to pay him €232,000? We could mention Dr Murphy's seven UCC sidekicks with salaries topping €140,000. Or the 150 academics around the country topping €150,000.

There's evidence that this level of recession-proofing is not confined to bigshot politicians, top professionals and academics. Have you been to the Dog House? You should go, it's a marvel.

Brown Thomas is a splendid store, one that pays careful attention to its customers, and that knows its market intimately. It's aware that, for some, Christmas is an irresistible opportunity to splash out. To service such needs, each year BT sets up a kind of posh store-within-a-store, for people for whom the normal upmarket BT fare won't suffice. This is known as The Marvel Room.

There, you can pick up rings for €7,100, and a jewellery box to keep them in, at €2,450. As the collection grows, try the jewellery case (in white Suhali leather) at €29,000. Handbags for €4,050, watches for €22,000. If you want to buy me an iPad 2 for Christmas I'll have to insist that it comes in an iPad holder designed by Posh Spice, at €895. My stocking filler? A keyring designed by Tom Ford, for a mere €200.

There's also The Dog House, a boutique store-within-a-store-within-a-store. There you can spend €95 on a lead for your dog, or perhaps a hand-embroidered cushion in taupe cotton, for your dog to sleep on, at a competitive €145.

The Marvel Room is not aimed at the one per cent who are the super-rich. This is marketing aimed at a more substantial group. Valuable retail space would not be wasted on items that won't sell. The upmarket jewellery stores, too, know their market. Watch them fill up as Christmas approaches.

The global leaders discarded the lessons of the Great Depression of the Thirties, the conservative regulation that stabilised capitalism for 40 years after the war. When the crisis erupted they disregarded the lesson that fiscal austerity kills growth. They had house-trained, recession-proofed economists to pooh-pooh the old-fashioned rules.

Without the vision to see the depth of the crisis, they dismissed any talk of radical measures, they refused to effectively tax the rich, they sought to revive dead banks and imposed austerity that undermined growth and recovery.

As all that fails, they're now setting up 'technocrat'" governments (ie, unelected, unaccountable 'experts', who don't have to seek election, and can therefore be brutal) in Greece and Italy. France frets, the UK shivers. The euro is a basket case, the EU itself is at risk. But, happily, most of the recession-proof people in charge are wearing very expensive watches, their iPads are poshly spiced and their dogs sleep on hand-embroidered cushions.

To get slightly metaphorical about this, the bankers and builders crippled the economy. Since late 2008 the politicians have been kicking it senseless, with austerity measures. Now, panicked because the euro is on deathwatch, our Government and its ideological bedmates in the IMF/EU can think of little to do but continue to drag what's left of the economy towards the edge of a cliff.

Much as I'd like to join in the Michael D/Boys in Green/four-nil euphoria, I think we're going over that cliff. And we'll have to listen to crabby lectures denouncing our "negativity", from the Happy Clappy brigade, all the way down.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 14, 2011, 09:02:14 AM
Amazing developments last week with the powers that be bypassing the political system and appointing 2 outsiders to lead Italy and Greece.
You'll eat it and you'll like it. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 14, 2011, 11:16:29 AM
http://www.nationaljournal.com/economy/-government-sachs-italian-style-20111110 (http://www.nationaljournal.com/economy/-government-sachs-italian-style-20111110)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 15, 2011, 03:31:46 PM
http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2011/11/15/recent-inaccuracies-re-the-bank-guarantee?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=recent-inaccuracies-re-the-bank-guarantee (http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2011/11/15/recent-inaccuracies-re-the-bank-guarantee?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=recent-inaccuracies-re-the-bank-guarantee)

McWilliams is setting the record straight regarding his 'opinion' (as against advice) to Lenihan on the bank guarantee.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 16, 2011, 01:08:54 PM
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/nov/15/markets-distrust-democracy-beijing-moscow (http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/nov/15/markets-distrust-democracy-beijing-moscow)

Interesting piece
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: thejuice on November 16, 2011, 01:45:57 PM
The forecasters reckon the Eurozone will be in recession by mid December and will stay there for the next Qtr at the least.

"O Goody-goody-gumdrops" as they like to say around Termonfeckin
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: thejuice on November 16, 2011, 02:04:52 PM
and is it just me or is it everytime those wankers in Brussels (or indeed any politician) try and fix this mess it just gets worse.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: GalwayBayBoy on November 16, 2011, 02:18:47 PM
Quote from: thejuice on November 16, 2011, 01:45:57 PM
The forecasters reckon the Eurozone will be in recession by mid December and will stay there for the next Qtr at the least.

I didn't realise we were out of the last one.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 16, 2011, 06:05:33 PM
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1116/breaking3.html (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1116/breaking3.html)

Kenny in conflict with Merkel
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 16, 2011, 09:16:44 PM
http://www.businessinsider.com/must-watch-citis-willem-buiter-says-europe-might-just-have-days-before-a-financial-catastrophe-2011-11 (http://www.businessinsider.com/must-watch-citis-willem-buiter-says-europe-might-just-have-days-before-a-financial-catastrophe-2011-11)

This is a fantastic interview with Citi's Willem Buiter on Bloomberg TV.
You can hear the anger in his voice as he argues that Europe may have a matter of days before an unnecessary default and a financial catastrophe.
The answer: the ECB must act fast, and ignore the Germans who don't get it. While some people don't think that the ECB can really monetize sovereign debt this way, Buiter believes there's absolutely nothing preventing the ECB from doing whatever it wants on the secondary market.
This summary of the key points and quotes was provided to us by Bloomberg TV. You can watch the full video here.
-------------
Buiter on Europe's crisis:
"Time is running out fast.  I think we have maybe a few months -- it could be weeks, it could be days -- before there is a material risk of a fundamentally unnecessary default by a country like Spain or Italy which would be a financial catastrophe dragging the European banking system and North America with it. So they have to act now."
"The only two guns in town, one is only theoretical, and that is increasing the size of the EFSF to 3 trillion.  It should happen but it can't for political reasons.  The other one, the only remaining share is the ECB.  They may have to hold their noses while they do it, and if they don't do it, it's the end of the euro zone."

On why the ECB hasn't acted yet:
"Because after the error of the Bundesbank, they consider central banks purchasing sovereign debt outright to be like swearing in church.  It's just not done.  This has been in fact to a certain extent embedded in the treaty which forbids the ECB from lending directly to governments or buying stuff in the primary market.  But there is no restriction at all on them buying any amount of sovereign debt at any time in the secondary market, so they can do it."
"This crisis is the result of the failure to provide the minimal institutional underpinning for a monetary union in the euro area and also a result of the ECB unfortunately being the heir of the Bundesbank and therefore not understanding and rejecting the role of central bank as lenders' last resort to sovereigns.  They certainly are a central bank.  They just are a central bank that prefers to fight with both hands behind their back.  If they just let go of one hand, that would be enough."

On Italy's situation:
"This is already challenging.  If this was the rate at which they are going to fund themselves, even over the medium term, that becomes an explosive debt deficit spiral...This is clearly unsustainable. You can live here for awhile, they're not going to keel over tomorrow, but this is not sustainable...The only way they can get back there is for the ECB to provide the liquidity while Italy does the hard work for years, in fact for the rest of the decade quite possibly, of restructuring their economy and tightening the budget in a major way."

On whether he's concerned about France:
I think France definitely has its work cut out for itself. It has a government budgeting problem which is structural to a large extent. And then they have a large banking sector. Do not forget that the U.S. banking sector balance sheet is less than 100% of GDP. In Europe and France, it is 300%. Their banks are under fire and so their sovereigns are under fire. I do not think the sovereign will keel over, but they have their work cut out for them.

On what he'd like to see in Europe to get the fiscal house in order:
Clearly some minimal federal fiscal structure would be desirable, but it is completely unrealistic.  They best they can hope for is that the ECB will indeed ring fence the euro area sovereigns in exchange for basically glorified IMF programs. So that they will temporarily transfer a significant amount of fiscal sovereignty to some super-national body, but then when they get restored to health, they regain this.  That is not a long-term solution.  Ultimately there will have to be some form of fiscal union that creates a federal solution, but that's for the next crisis, not this one.

On whether Europe is an AIG waiting to happen:
No for several reasons.  First of all, AIG happened and everybody learned from it. Whereas the sovereign CDS, the regulators by and large know who wrote it, who issued it and who holds it.   Unlike quite a bit of the CDS written by AIG.  This stuff is all collateralized.  So nothing is ever completely safe, even sovereign debt, but I think it's a lot safer to trigger them and use their insurance value than to kill the market."

On the quality of the German economy right now:
"It is a mixed bag. It has a very productive manufacturing exporting sector. Much of the rest of it is not very efficient at all, including the services sectors. Germany had the world's largest corporate takeover in 1999 when West Germany took on East Germany. That has not been fully digested yet. It is a country that is very much a dual economy. It is very strong at the moment strong at the moment as an export-oriented economy, which of course is vulnerable to cyclical slowdowns...it is structural and cyclical. The German demographics are terrible, even by European standards."

On whether the U.S. should use its currency to help with exports:
"No, I think to pursue competitiveness policies by manipulating or steering down the nominal values of the exchange rate is a loser's game. In the limit, it gets you to Zimbabwe, which didn't exactly become a hub of competitiveness. It's a gross misalignment for historical reasons...I think we shouldn't get too upset about the Chinese manipulating their currency.  There's also no reason to attach great importance to the ability of the U.S. in manipulating its currency. Both are second order instruments."


Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/must-watch-citis-willem-buiter-says-europe-might-just-have-days-before-a-financial-catastrophe-2011-11#ixzz1duBjv5en
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 16, 2011, 09:26:06 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 12, 2011, 09:50:55 PM
Long article but well worth reading.

http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2011/11/michael-lewis-201111 (http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2011/11/michael-lewis-201111)

The relationship between the people and their money in California is such that you can pluck almost any city at random and enter a crisis. San Jose has the highest per capita income of any city in the United States, after New York. It has the highest credit rating of any city in California with a population over 250,000. It is one of the few cities in America with a triple-A rating from Moody's and Standard & Poor's, but only because its bondholders have the power to compel the city to levy a tax on property owners to pay off the bonds. The city itself is not all that far from being bankrupt.

It's late afternoon when I meet Mayor Chuck Reed in his office at the top of the city-hall tower. The crowd below has just begun to chant. The public employees, as usual, are protesting him. Reed is so used to it that he hardly notices. He's a former air-force officer and Vietnam-era veteran with an intellectual bent and the clipped manner of a midwestern farmer. He has a master's degree from Princeton, a law degree from Stanford, and a lifelong interest in public policy. Still, he presents less as the mayor of a big city in California than as a hard-bitten, upstanding sheriff of a small town who doesn't want any trouble. Elected to the city council in 2000, he became mayor six years later; in 2010 he was re-elected with 77 percent of the vote. He's a Democrat, but at this point it doesn't much matter which party he belongs to, or what his ideological leanings are, or for that matter how popular he is with the people of San Jose. He's got a problem so big that it overwhelms ordinary politics: the city owes so much more money to its employees than it can afford to pay that it could cut its debts in half and still wind up broke. "I did a calculation of cost per public employee," he says as we settle in. "We're not as bad as Greece, I don't think." (//http:///%3E%3Cbr%20/%3EIt's%20late%20afternoon%20when%20I%20meet%20Mayor%20Chuck%20Reed%20in%20his%20office%20at%20the%20top%20of%20the%20city-hall%20tower.%20The%20crowd%20below%20has%20just%20begun%20to%20chant.%20The%20public%20employees,%20as%20usual,%20are%20protesting%20him.%20Reed%20is%20so%20used%20to%20it%20that%20he%20hardly%20notices.%20He's%20a%20former%20air-force%20officer%20and%20Vietnam-era%20veteran%20with%20an%20intellectual%20bent%20and%20the%20clipped%20manner%20of%20a%20midwestern%20farmer.%20He%20has%20a%20master's%20degree%20from%20Princeton,%20a%20law%20degree%20from%20Stanford,%20and%20a%20lifelong%20interest%20in%20public%20policy.%20Still,%20he%20presents%20less%20as%20the%20mayor%20of%20a%20big%20city%20in%20California%20than%20as%20a%20hard-bitten,%20upstanding%20sheriff%20of%20a%20small%20town%20who%20doesn't%20want%20any%20trouble.%20Elected%20to%20the%20city%20council%20in%202000,%20he%20became%20mayor%20six%20years%20later;%20in%202010%20he%20was%20re-elected%20with%2077%20percent%20of%20the%20vote.%20He's%20a%20Democrat,%20but%20at%20this%20point%20it%20doesn't%20much%20matter%20which%20party%20he%20belongs%20to,%20or%20what%20his%20ideological%20leanings%20are,%20or%20for%20that%20matter%20how%20popular%20he%20is%20with%20the%20people%20of%20San%20Jose.%20He's%20got%20a%20problem%20so%20big%20that%20it%20overwhelms%20ordinary%20politics:%20the%20city%20owes%20so%20much%20more%20money%20to%20its%20employees%20than%20it%20can%20afford%20to%20pay%20that%20it%20could%20cut%20its%20debts%20in%20half%20and%20still%20wind%20up%20broke.%20%22I%20did%20a%20calculation%20of%20cost%20per%20public%20employee,%22%20he%20says%20as%20we%20settle%20in.%20%22We're%20not%20as%20bad%20as%20Greece,%20I%20don't%20think.%22)
I just finished reading it, Muppet. The US is really banjaxed. Would make one wonder how TO can justify his rants.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 16, 2011, 09:32:28 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 16, 2011, 06:05:33 PM
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1116/breaking3.html (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1116/breaking3.html)

Kenny in conflict with Merkel

Heard an interesting twist on why Kenny might be at odds with Angel.

He may be prioritising our special relationships and acting accordingly.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 17, 2011, 05:04:44 PM
If anyone thought the Department of Finance were the only ones capable of producing daft figures have a look at this:

The world exports $331bn more than it imports, according to the IMF.

http://www.economist.com/node/21538100?fsrc=scn/tw/te/ar/exportstomars (http://www.economist.com/node/21538100?fsrc=scn/tw/te/ar/exportstomars)

They forecast that this figure will rise to $700bn by 2014.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Gaoth Dobhair Abu on November 17, 2011, 06:54:38 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 16, 2011, 09:32:28 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 16, 2011, 06:05:33 PM
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1116/breaking3.html (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1116/breaking3.html)

Kenny in conflict with Merkel

Heard an interesting twist on why Kenny might be at odds with Angel.

He may be prioritising our special relationships and acting accordingly.

Muppet can you expand on this please.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 17, 2011, 07:05:21 PM
Quote from: Gaoth Dobhair Abu on November 17, 2011, 06:54:38 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 16, 2011, 09:32:28 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 16, 2011, 06:05:33 PM
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1116/breaking3.html (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1116/breaking3.html)

Kenny in conflict with Merkel

Heard an interesting twist on why Kenny might be at odds with Angel.

He may be prioritising our special relationships and acting accordingly.

Muppet can you expand on this please.

If it all goes bang, or we burn the bondholders, we might be needing old friends urgently. I would expect to see him meeting Cameron and Obama more than Merkel and Sarky.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Tubberman on November 17, 2011, 07:16:03 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 17, 2011, 07:05:21 PM
Quote from: Gaoth Dobhair Abu on November 17, 2011, 06:54:38 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 16, 2011, 09:32:28 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 16, 2011, 06:05:33 PM
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1116/breaking3.html (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1116/breaking3.html)

Kenny in conflict with Merkel

Heard an interesting twist on why Kenny might be at odds with Angel.

He may be prioritising our special relationships and acting accordingly.

Muppet can you expand on this please.

If it all goes bang, or we burn the bondholders, we might be needing old friends urgently. I would expect to see him meeting Cameron and Obama more than Merkel and Sarky.

He'd be a fool not to keep as many options open as possible to cover as many outcomes as possible. Wonder where it ranks from plan a to plan z....
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: whiskeysteve on November 17, 2011, 07:44:35 PM
A copy of the Irish budget has been passed round the German Bundestag according to Matt Frei on the BBC there now
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Gaoth Dobhair Abu on November 17, 2011, 07:56:05 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 17, 2011, 07:05:21 PM
Quote from: Gaoth Dobhair Abu on November 17, 2011, 06:54:38 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 16, 2011, 09:32:28 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 16, 2011, 06:05:33 PM
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1116/breaking3.html (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1116/breaking3.html)

Kenny in conflict with Merkel

Heard an interesting twist on why Kenny might be at odds with Angel.

He may be prioritising our special relationships and acting accordingly.

Muppet can you expand on this please.

If it all goes bang, or we burn the bondholders, we might be needing old friends urgently. I would expect to see him meeting Cameron and Obama more than Merkel and Sarky.

Thanks.
Should we not have burnt the bond holders ages ago?!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 17, 2011, 08:45:24 PM
Quote from: Gaoth Dobhair Abu on November 17, 2011, 07:56:05 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 17, 2011, 07:05:21 PM
Quote from: Gaoth Dobhair Abu on November 17, 2011, 06:54:38 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 16, 2011, 09:32:28 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 16, 2011, 06:05:33 PM
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1116/breaking3.html (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1116/breaking3.html)

Kenny in conflict with Merkel

Heard an interesting twist on why Kenny might be at odds with Angel.

He may be prioritising our special relationships and acting accordingly.

Muppet can you expand on this please.

If it all goes bang, or we burn the bondholders, we might be needing old friends urgently. I would expect to see him meeting Cameron and Obama more than Merkel and Sarky.

Thanks.
Should we not have burnt the bond holders ages ago?!

I think we should have done it in Sep 2008. We had a bargaining position.

If we did it then it would have been burning private investors in private banks. If we do it now we burn the ECB and most of the rest of the Eurozone along with Britain, USA and the IMF. We will be popular.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 17, 2011, 08:49:42 PM
Free App for iPhone.

€conomia - You are the head of the ECB and you set the interest rates for the Eurozone. You have to keep inflation just below 2%.

I am deadly serious, it is free!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Orangemac on November 17, 2011, 09:47:53 PM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on November 17, 2011, 07:44:35 PM
A copy of the Irish budget has been passed round the German Bundestag according to Matt Frei on the BBC there now
Is this the real reason Kenny was invited over to Germany to get the ok for the Irish budget and we had the whole Kenny acting tough spiel as a cover yesterday?

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: whiskeysteve on November 17, 2011, 09:48:40 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 17, 2011, 08:45:24 PM
Quote from: Gaoth Dobhair Abu on November 17, 2011, 07:56:05 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 17, 2011, 07:05:21 PM
Quote from: Gaoth Dobhair Abu on November 17, 2011, 06:54:38 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 16, 2011, 09:32:28 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 16, 2011, 06:05:33 PM
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1116/breaking3.html (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1116/breaking3.html)

Kenny in conflict with Merkel

Heard an interesting twist on why Kenny might be at odds with Angel.

He may be prioritising our special relationships and acting accordingly.

Muppet can you expand on this please.

If it all goes bang, or we burn the bondholders, we might be needing old friends urgently. I would expect to see him meeting Cameron and Obama more than Merkel and Sarky.

Thanks.
Should we not have burnt the bond holders ages ago?!

I think we should have done it in Sep 2008. We had a bargaining position.

If we did it then it would have been burning private investors in private banks. If we do it now we burn the ECB and most of the rest of the Eurozone along with Britain, USA and the IMF. We will be popular.

Yes popular with the powers that be, hopefully a great swathe of whom get ejected with global default.

And on the question of blame, sure the bastarding bankers have poured petrol over everything, how long can everybody hold onto a lit match without dropping it? Point being burning our fingers now won't save us or earn us any plaudits when SocGen, Bank of America, etc hit the dust - everyone will be too busy fending for themselves if it comes to that.

Wish we were more concerned about being popular in the long term with our own people... too many f**king Lucinda Creighton climbers. f**king shite
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: whiskeysteve on November 17, 2011, 09:50:55 PM
Quote from: Orangemac on November 17, 2011, 09:47:53 PM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on November 17, 2011, 07:44:35 PM
A copy of the Irish budget has been passed round the German Bundestag according to Matt Frei on the BBC there now
Is this the real reason Kenny was invited over to Germany to get the ok for the Irish budget and we had the whole Kenny acting tough spiel as a cover yesterday?

i'd say he got wind of it coming out it in the press and gave off stink in light of the embarrasment, aye
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 17, 2011, 09:53:02 PM
Budgets are tactically leaked every year. Not just in Ireland. (I concede that the German Parliament is a novel place to 'leak' it)

Did anything else, other than the VAT, come out in Berlin? The Italians have flagged a VAT increase even before they had an unelected Government.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: whiskeysteve on November 17, 2011, 09:53:30 PM
Nigel Farage telling the hoors a few home truths

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bdob6QRLRJU&feature=player_embedded
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hardy on November 18, 2011, 02:04:03 AM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on November 17, 2011, 09:53:30 PM
Nigel Farage telling the hoors a few home truths

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bdob6QRLRJU&feature=player_embedded

You know, that could be the most frightening moment of this whole crisis so far. Why? Because Nigel Farrage comes across as totally reasonable and rational in every word he says there. In fact, everything he says is true. That's how Hitler sounded to the German voters who elected him in 1933. We are in real trouble when the extremists start to make sense. Merkel, if she's serious about the importance of this crisis for the future of Europe, must bite the bullet and direct the ECB to act as the Central Bank of Europe. It's a straight choice now between the fear of the financial inconvenience of inflation and the fear of the collapse of the political consensus that has underpinned peace in Europe for 65 years.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: AQMP on November 18, 2011, 10:41:00 AM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on November 17, 2011, 09:53:30 PM
Nigel Farage telling the hoors a few home truths

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bdob6QRLRJU&feature=player_embedded

Farage is a complete tool...but you couldn't really disagree with any of that :(
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 18, 2011, 01:48:56 PM
German memo shows secret slide towards a super-state

By Bruno Waterfield
Friday November 18 2011
AN INTRUSIVE European body with the power to take over the economies of struggling nations should be set up to tackle the eurozone crisis, according to a leaked German government document.

The memo will prompt fears that Germany's euro crisis plans could result in a European super-state with spending and tax plans set in Brussels

The six-page memo, by the German foreign office, argues that Europe's economic powerhouses should be able to intervene in how beleaguered eurozone countries are run.

The confidential blueprint sets out Germany's plan to tackle the eurozone debt crisis by creating a "stability union" that will be "immediately followed by moves "on the way towards a political union".

It will prompt fears that Germany's euro crisis plans could result in a European super-state with spending and tax plans set in Brussels.

The proposals urge that the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), a eurozone bailout fund that will be established by the end of next year, should be transformed into a version of the International Monetary Fund for the EU.

The European Monetary Fund (EMF) would be able to take full fiscal control of a failing country, including taking countries into receivership.

The leaked document, The Future of the EU: Required Integration Policy Improvements for the Creation of a Stability Union, begins with a proposal to create "automatic sanctions" that could be imposed on euro members spending beyond targets set by the European Commission. Germany is demanding that if euro rules are "consistently violated", it should be able to demand action from the European Court of Justice.

Germany, Finland, Austria and the Netherlands would be able to ask EU courts to impose sanctions, from fines to the loss of budgetary sovereignty, to protect the euro.

The memo states the EMF would be given "real intervention rights" in the budgets of euro members who have received EU-IMF bailouts.

Open Europe, a think tank, has called for Mr Cameron to demand concessions from Mrs Merkel in exchange for the plans, which need the consent of all 27 EU countries, giving Britain a veto
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Rossfan on November 18, 2011, 01:50:37 PM
 Can I presume that's from some English paper?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 18, 2011, 01:54:59 PM
QuoteCan I presume that's from some English paper?

Naturellement - Telegraph

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15748696 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15748696)

click on each country and see what the debt per person is for each – Cmon Ireland
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Billys Boots on November 18, 2011, 02:11:00 PM
If there's one sure way for the Tories/Telegraph to get its electorate wound-up, it's a suggestion that the Germans are getting too big for their britches.  Again.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 18, 2011, 04:07:33 PM
Quote from: Declan on November 18, 2011, 01:54:59 PM
QuoteCan I presume that's from some English paper?

Naturellement - Telegraph

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15748696 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15748696)

click on each country and see what the debt per person is for each – Cmon Ireland

That is a very good link.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: magpie seanie on November 18, 2011, 04:19:32 PM
Quote from: Declan on November 18, 2011, 01:54:59 PM
QuoteCan I presume that's from some English paper?

Naturellement - Telegraph

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15748696 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15748696)

click on each country and see what the debt per person is for each – Cmon Ireland

Ha ha! We kick the rest of the worlds asses at debt per person. In your face world!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: fearglasmor on November 18, 2011, 04:35:24 PM
So we owe 104bn to the UK as much as we owe to Germany and France put together.
But the UK owe us 113bn................

An they were making a big deal about giving us a lend of 7m or something like that.


::)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hardy on November 18, 2011, 04:47:28 PM
Quote from: fearglasmor on November 18, 2011, 04:35:24 PM
So we owe 104bn to the UK as much as we owe to Germany and France put together.
But the UK owe us 113bn................

Y'see this is the stuff I just don't get. How come the other side of the balance sheet is never netted off our national debt?

Presumably this 113Bn the UK owes "us" is owed to Irish banks - which, since we now own them, really is us. So our balance with the UK is 9Bn positive. Or else the 113Bn we owe them is after we net off the 104Bn they owe us.

Could somebody who understands this tell me how it works?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 18, 2011, 05:32:52 PM
Quote from: Hardy on November 18, 2011, 04:47:28 PM
Quote from: fearglasmor on November 18, 2011, 04:35:24 PM
So we owe 104bn to the UK as much as we owe to Germany and France put together.
But the UK owe us 113bn................

Y'see this is the stuff I just don't get. How come the other side of the balance sheet is never netted off our national debt?

Presumably this 113Bn the UK owes "us" is owed to Irish banks - which, since we now own them, really is us. So our balance with the UK is 9Bn positive. Or else the 113Bn we owe them is after we net off the 104Bn they owe us.

Could somebody who understands this tell me how it works?

Here is one article which helps although I recall a better one. I'll keep looking.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/dan-roberts-on-business-blog/interactive/2009/jan/29/financial-pyramid (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/dan-roberts-on-business-blog/interactive/2009/jan/29/financial-pyramid)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Evil Genius on November 18, 2011, 05:44:39 PM
Quote from: Hardy on November 18, 2011, 02:04:03 AM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on November 17, 2011, 09:53:30 PM
Nigel Farage telling the hoors a few home truths

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bdob6QRLRJU&feature=player_embedded

You know, that could be the most frightening moment of this whole crisis so far. Why? Because Nigel Farrage comes across as totally reasonable and rational in every word he says there. In fact, everything he says is true. That's how Hitler sounded to the German voters who elected him in 1933. We are in real trouble when the extremists start to make sense. Merkel, if she's serious about the importance of this crisis for the future of Europe, must bite the bullet and direct the ECB to act as the Central Bank of Europe. It's a straight choice now between the fear of the financial inconvenience of inflation and the fear of the collapse of the political consensus that has underpinned peace in Europe for 65 years.
I hold no brief for Farage, accept that UKIP has its share of cranks and loonies etc and do not agree with my country withdrawing from the EU.

But I feel it unfair to label him an "extremist", especially in the same paragraph as Hitler. In fact, if you read UKIP's manifesto, it is hardly any more "extreme" than eg that of the Lib Dems:
http://www.ukip.org/media/pdf/UKIPManifesto2010.pdf

Imo you might have been better advised to post that: "We are in real trouble when our (supposedly) democratic leaders cease to make sense..."


P.S. Farage was being accused today of being "anti-German", until he pointed out that he is married to one... :D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Evil Genius on November 18, 2011, 06:04:20 PM
Quote from: fearglasmor on November 18, 2011, 04:35:24 PMSo we owe 104bn to the UK as much as we owe to Germany and France put together.
But the UK owe us 113bn................
The ROI's net balance with the UK is only a small part of the overall picture of the former's finances.
And when looking at the bigger picture, the markets have concluded that the ROI is in a much worse overall position than the UK.

Quote from: fearglasmor on November 18, 2011, 04:35:24 PMAn they [UK] were making a big deal about giving us a lend of 7m or something like that.
Not so big a deal as, say, to insist on setting the ROI's next budget in return...

Anyhow, the point is that regardless of the ROI's overall position, at the time of the UK loan, the ROI desperately needed cash to service their current deficit - the Minimum Monthly Payment on the nation's Credit Card, if you like.

Except that the cost of short-term borrowing by the Irish Government to make that payment would have been at such a high interest rate as to make the deficit unsustainable.

Whereas the UK's credit with the money markets was better, so they (UK) borrowed the money from the markets at a much lower rate and passed it on to ROI, taking a "turn" (and the risk of Irish default) for themselves.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Evil Genius on November 18, 2011, 06:35:36 PM
Quote from: Hardy on November 18, 2011, 04:47:28 PM
Quote from: fearglasmor on November 18, 2011, 04:35:24 PM
So we owe 104bn to the UK as much as we owe to Germany and France put together.
But the UK owe us 113bn................

Y'see this is the stuff I just don't get. How come the other side of the balance sheet is never netted off our national debt?

Presumably this 113Bn the UK owes "us" is owed to Irish banks - which, since we now own them, really is us. So our balance with the UK is 9Bn positive. Or else the 113Bn we owe them is after we net off the 104Bn they owe us.

Could somebody who understands this tell me how it works?
I don't pretend to understand how it all works, but I suspect that the ROI/UK deal is as follows.

If the ROI owes the UK a net amount, there is presently no way the ROI can pay it. But it is still vital to know the overall (pre-net) figures, since it tells so much more about the relationship between the two eg how much of it is trade-related, investment-related or simple borrowing. Also, the age of the debt is important i.e. the bulk of the Irish debt might eg be short-term (5 years?), whereas the UK debt to ROI might eg be longer term (10 years?).

Whereas if the UK owes the ROI a net amount, there is no advantage in the latter calling it in, since their [ROI's] other creditors will only demand it for themselves.

And in any case the ROI's debt levels, whether bi-lateral with the UK, or multi-lateral with other countries, are only part of the picture.

For example, according to the DT chart, the UK's overall debt is just over four times its GDP, whereas the ROI's debt is 8 1/2 times its GDP. And not only that, but the UK is currently paying less than half the interest rate on its debt, compared to what the ROI is being forced to pay.

Moreover, none of the above takes into account each countries assets and reserves etc - I suspect that in these respects, the UK position is regarded as being healthier than that of ROI.

Finally, I was listening to some US Pension Fund manager who correctly anticipated the US sub-prime mortgage collapse etc, and was now looking outside the US to international sovereign risk etc. Of course just because he predicted the last one doesn't mean he must be right this time, but he was specifically far less worried about the US/UK than he was about France/Japan, on the basis that despite the pain/political unpopularity it caused, the former had recapitalised their banks, whereas the latter had not, and so were extremely vulnerable to another Lehman-type collapse. (This also explains in part why the UK is paying lower interest rates than France, with the USA paying less again) Anyhow, I dunno whether he was correct, but his case seemed very persuasive to me.

P.S. Another comment I saw the other day was that whilst everyone agrees that the German economy is currently reasonably sound, we should not take that as a "given" forever, since their demographics, whereby the population is getting older but no longer growing in numbers, augar severe problems in another 20 or 30 years time.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 19, 2011, 07:06:36 PM
http://www.abc.net.au/foreign/default.htm (http://www.abc.net.au/foreign/default.htm)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 19, 2011, 07:34:10 PM
Reading this and I am thinking Merkel might be right.

My emphasis for anyone who doesn't have time to read the whole article.

http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2011/11/buckle-up-credit-crunch-2/ (http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2011/11/buckle-up-credit-crunch-2/)

Buckle up – Credit Crunch 2

by Golem XIV on NOVEMBER 17, 2011 in LATEST
I am sorry this is such a lengthy article. But I offer it as an explanation and understanding of what is going on that the bankers DO NOT want you to have.


I think it may now be time to buckle up and read that little card that tells you how to assume the crash position.

In a nut shell we are already in the midst of another  credit and bank funding crunch. Of course all the talk from the bankers, such as Buiter at Citi  and the tin hat brigade at Deutsche Bank is all about how it is all the fault of nations. But it's not quite so wonderfully simple as that.

Already one multi billion dollar brokerage, MF Global, has collapsed. One Trillion dollar bank, UniCredit, is teetering on the edge of collapse, and two European nations each with enough debt to bring down Europe, Italy and Spain are desperately trying to borrow euros from the ECB and dollars from the Fed. Just this morning Spanish bond yields are shooting up well in to unsustainable territory. And French yields are also in motion. Like a train sliding backwards over a precipice, as each carriage goes over so the weight pulling down grows and the weight resisting decreases. And the engine at the front, the ECB/Germany has to think can I still pull all this back up or should I cut the coupling and save myself at least.

There is a crisis and it is in Europe , but the 'contagion' is not at all what our cretinous media and brain rotted politicians are telling us it is. The contagion the markets are worried about is bank contagion. Nations' borrowing woes are the radioactive material, but the banks built the bomb.

Here's what I mean. What I want to show is that what is happening is almost a carbon copy of what the banks did in the lead up to Credit Crunch 1. They have done the same again only this time with sovereign bonds instead of American mortgages. This is another sub prime and once again it has been engineered by the banks.

To understand why the rise in borrowing costs in Italy and Spain, as well as worries about Greece, have suddenly become a 'contagion' that the bankers speak of in apocalyptic terms we have to understand why and how MF Global imploded. This might seem like a sideways diversion but it's not. The collapse of MF Global is our window in to what is actually frightening the bankers.

MF Global was not only a huge brokerage it was one of the gilded Primary Dealers. That is, the largest and most trusted banks or brokerages chosen to for their size and stability, to deal everyday with the Fed to help it sell America's trillions of debt. MF Global was run by Jon Corzine former head of Investment Banking at Goldman Sachs and one time governor of New Jersey. But please don't get any ideas that there is a revolving door between finance and government.

And yet MF Global collapsed. According to The Guardian it did so because of lax oversight which had not noticed or been bothered by the fact that at the time of its demise,

...MF Global had liabilities at the end of June of $44.4bn against only $1.4bn in equity.

The familiar trope of 'lax oversight' goes along with 'rogue trader' as the explanation the  bankers can live with and are happy for you to accept. 'Lax oversight' like 'rogue trader' scape-goats one or two people and deflects any questions of whether what happened was a direct consequence of what the banks do and how they chose to do it as a group and profession.


What is undeniable is the massive leverage. Now we need to ask what underpinned this leverage. For that we turn to a report from AP which I picked up at The Business Insider With the Headline, "MF Global Is The First Big US Victim Of The Europe Crisis". This article began the – It's a crisis of European nations' story-line. It begins with the statement,

"The European debt crisis has claimed its first big casualty on Wall Street..."

But how exactly? Much later in the article comes this,

MF had amassed net exposure of $6.29 billion in debt issued by Italy, Spain, Belgium, Portugal and Ireland. Of that, $1.37 billion was from Portugal and Ireland, which already were bailed out by European authorities. More than half was from Italy, whose borrowing costs increased in recent days as investors grew concerned about its finances. (My emphasis)

Now no one had forced MF Global to buy these bonds. MF Global could just as easily have bought German bonds. Only they would have given far less of a return. What MF Global had been doing was buying up dodgy bonds on the secondary market that other people were selling. Picking them up cheap and expecting them to be bailed out.

So now we have massive leverage resting on sub-prime assets, this time bonds not mortgages,  which the company had specifically sought out. And it sought them out for the same reasons sub prime mortgages had been sought after – their high risk made them more lucrative than safe ones. Same greed, same idiocy. Same people.

But Corzine wasn't done yet. Oh no, not by a long way.

MF Global was also following the exact same finding model as Bear Stearns did, as Lehman's did, as Northern Rock did and as countless others did. They relied for a huge part of their day to day funding on short term borrowing. Why go for short term borrowing which in retrospect seems so unstable – in that as soon as you have a problem you have so little time to sort it before you run out of money? Why, because it's cheap. Of course. So you buy risky because it's cheap to buy and offers high return (until it explodes that is) and then you borrow short also because its cheap but unstable. Banking genius at work having 'learned those lessons' from 08!

But wait there's more as explained here by professional accountants in forensic detail. I will give you the short version.

MF Global was borrowing to finance itself but with what collateral? Remember Lehman bothers and their infamous repo 105? For those who don't, repo is where you 'sell' as asset but with a fixed agreement to buy it back at an agreed slightly higher price at a set time. So although it is 'sold' it is actually a loan because the asset comes back and the money is returned with interest. All banks use repo for overnight and short term funding.

Lehman's was using repo but exaggerating the worth of its assets to 'borrow' more than they were worth. They came unstuck when creditors would no longer accept their valuations of their assets or, in fact, accept them at all. MF Global was using its dodgy European bonds as collateral. It was marking them to mythic – sorry – model valuations and repo-ing them. But it gets better. The particular type of repo it was using was 'repo to maturity'. Which simply means the agreement was that the short term repo was to be rolled over and renewed all the way until the bond matured. This is legal. But I should  point out the the law was written by the financial firms themselves. The key fact is that repo to maturity is supposed to be done ONLY with absolutely AAA rated bonds like American bonds. MF Global was using it with Italian, Greek and Spanish bonds. Pretending they were AAA even as it was buying them up at prices which recognized they were very far from AAA. And the international accounting standards boards and regulators either didn't 'notice' or did and sanctioned it.

Now what this meant was that MF Global was showing the repo's as actual sales. Naughty, yes, but terrible? Well, yes. Terrible enough that much of it was hidden off balance sheet. You see by booking them as a sale the company was claiming that the risk associated with them (remember they are dodgy bonds from struggling countries) was also gone. Sold to the 'buyer'. But there was no buyer. They were only repo'd.

I say  'only' but in fact MF Global was happy they were only repo'd. It was more lucrative than selling them. And in fact this is in may ways the point of the deal MF was doing. You see the 'interest' MF was getting on the bonds, because they were dodgy, was quite high. This was the whole reason for buying them. Whereas the interest charged on short term repo is quite low. So MF Global was buying dodgy bonds which gave high interest and using them to borrow at a lower rate. Not only did this borrowing enable it to leverage itself more and more, but it was even making money on the deal; from the fact that the interest it was getting on the bond was higher than it was paying to borrow, using them as collateral. It seems convoluted and it is. But this is what the bankers call arbitrage and is why they think they are so clever. Understand it and you too could be a proper banker.

However, they ignored one thing. The same thing as Lehman's ignored. No matter what accounting trickery they got up to, the bonds were not sold they were repo's which meant that the risk (of the bonds declining in value) remained with MF Global. In fact the risk was now much greater. Not only was there the original risk of the dodgy bonds losing value, they now had an additional, greater risk because they had taken out further loans using the dodgy bonds as collateral. And from the leverage we looked at earlier know just how much MF Global had multiplied the risk.

So when the value of Italy's and Spain's bonds began to decline, their value as collateral declined and MF Global was asked to provide additional capital/cash to make up the difference. This is what is called a 'margin call'. And these margin calls killed MF Global. They couldn't come up with any more cash because they had none (they'd spent it all buying dodgy bonds) and couldn't borrow any more because all they had were those bonds whose value was going down not up and a simply insane leverage which geared those losses up till they had the power to crush.

So now we have almost every aspect of the original sub-prime credit crunch reproduced by the same people who did it the first time and were never punished or even rebuked but instead were allowed to reward themselves with millions in bonuses.

So to summarize, MF Global invested in sub prime. Only this time sub prime bonds not mortgages. It leveraged them hideously, pretended it had off-loaded the risk when it hadn't and then got caught when the value of the bonds went down and counldn't pay the debts it had taken on using the bonds as collateral. Sorry to belabour the point but I want you to see how this really is subrpime all over again.

And like the original sub prime it means when one bank goes down it leaves all those to whom it owes money, with their own losses.

So now let's move on from MF Global, because as some wag commented, you never find just one cockroach in a dirty kitchen. Which logic nearly killed a second brokerage, Jeffries. Its stock collapsed on the rumour that it too had bought up lots of European bonds. Jeffries had to take the amazing step of publishing every single position in bonds that it had. Only then did its stock recover.

Since then other banks have been less forthcoming about their exposure, namely Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. Only they are not so much suspected of having lots of European bonds themselves as having perhaps provided the one part of the whole sub prime crisis we have not so far mentioned, CDS insurance. Goldman and JP Morgan are among the world's largest derivatives traders. And they revealed that between them they have sold 'protection' on over $5 trillion globally. No one knows how much of this is on dodgy European debt and neither Goldman nor JP Morgan is saying.

In sub prime credit crunch 1 it was AIG that provided much of the short term funding and much of the CDS protection. This time who knows who are the main providers. But one thing you can be sure of, there will have been a great deal of it sold. Because it would have been sold using the same logic which inspired MF Global to buy the debt. The logic which said, these are countries too big to fail so in the end they will be bailed out even if democracy has to be  suspended to ensure it.  If you believed that logic then you wold have sold CDS protection and pocketed the premium.


So that, I believe is all aspects of sub prime accounted for. You can now see that while sovereign bonds and debts may be the fissile material the bomb itself and its explosive potential was constructed by the banks just as they did last time following the same blue-print and same greed.

And how soon might it go off. For that we end with UniCredit. Last quarter the trillion euro bank suddenly posted a 'surprise' 10.6 billion euro loss in just this last quarter! It's bonds are now trading as junk while it faces having to raise another 51 billion euros to re-finance its debt in just the next year. That, to me spells BOOOOM! It is only the first. It certainly won't be the last.  There will be others and they may be along fairly soon.

Why did UniCredit suddenly make such a loss? What was happening during the last quarter? Well Spanish and Italian bonds have lost a lot of value. what do you think, might UniCredit have been holding a lot of them? Surely not I hear you cry. Who would be so stupid. UniCredit blames the loss on its Kazakhstan and Ukraine units. What would those units have been doing to wrack up such monumental losses? UniCredit is now trying desperately to sell bits of itself.

The banks know what is going on. They each know the risks and losses they are hiding and know if they have them then so do the others. Exactly as in Credit crunch1 interbank lending is frozen with both libor  and repo markets in disarray.

I suggest these are the real reasons the banks are in an absolute panic and are shrieking about how the ECB MUST print and print now and why elections and  voting of any kind at all must NOT be allowed to upset the smooth imposition of the bank's required plan. There is contagion but it is bank contagion, its sub prime greed and failure all over again.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 19, 2011, 07:51:04 PM
Jebus!

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/capital-flight-and-forced-repatriation (http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/capital-flight-and-forced-repatriation)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 21, 2011, 07:36:13 AM
Unbelievable reading there muppet - We are well and truly FUBARed   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 21, 2011, 10:39:27 AM
Meanwhile in London John Major says that any attempt to impose a tax on financial transactions would be a disaster for the UK.
The banks have bought politics.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 21, 2011, 04:48:45 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 21, 2011, 10:39:27 AM
Meanwhile in London John Major says that any attempt to impose a tax on financial transactions would be a disaster for the UK.
The banks have bought politics.

Politics/Democracy is already gone. We in Ireland and Portugal have no sovereignty while Greece and Italy don't even get to vote for their puppets. Spain are somewhere in between and interesting have elected the first right wing leader since Franco.

The article above shows the next stage. Your rights to your property is not safe. Greeks legitimately owning assets abroad is now considered by the (unelected) EU Commission to be under their sphere of influence.

I really cannot believe it anymore.

To <insert whatever mantra they are spouting today here - I'll use 'impose Capital controls' >  they are willing to:
* ditch democracy;
* trample on individuals rights to their own property;
* order money they have no legal hold over whatsoever to be moved into based case institutions;

This is like watching a referee walking around slapping players and taking their wallets and expecting nothing to happen.

Does anyone in Europe read history anymore?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 21, 2011, 04:57:29 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 21, 2011, 04:48:45 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 21, 2011, 10:39:27 AM
Meanwhile in London John Major says that any attempt to impose a tax on financial transactions would be a disaster for the UK.
The banks have bought politics.

Politics/Democracy is already gone. We in Ireland and Portugal have no sovereignty while Greece and Italy don't even get to vote for their puppets. Spain are somewhere in between and interesting have elected the first right wing leader since Franco.

The article above shows the next stage. Your rights to your property is not safe. Greeks legitimately owning assets abroad is now considered by the (unelected) EU Commission to be under their sphere of influence.

I really cannot believe it anymore.

To <insert whatever mantra they are spouting today here - I'll use 'impose Capital controls' >  they are willing to:
* ditch democracy;
* trample on individuals rights to their own property;
* order money they have no legal hold over whatsoever to be moved into based case institutions;

This is like watching a referee walking around slapping players and taking their wallets and expecting nothing to happen.

Does anyone in Europe read history anymore?

Aznar was right wing, wasn't he? the ex Franco party was in power before Zapatero.
But it is getting very murky indeed .
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 21, 2011, 05:14:59 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 21, 2011, 04:57:29 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 21, 2011, 04:48:45 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 21, 2011, 10:39:27 AM
Meanwhile in London John Major says that any attempt to impose a tax on financial transactions would be a disaster for the UK.
The banks have bought politics.

Politics/Democracy is already gone. We in Ireland and Portugal have no sovereignty while Greece and Italy don't even get to vote for their puppets. Spain are somewhere in between and interesting have elected the first right wing leader since Franco.

The article above shows the next stage. Your rights to your property is not safe. Greeks legitimately owning assets abroad is now considered by the (unelected) EU Commission to be under their sphere of influence.

I really cannot believe it anymore.

To <insert whatever mantra they are spouting today here - I'll use 'impose Capital controls' >  they are willing to:
* ditch democracy;
* trample on individuals rights to their own property;
* order money they have no legal hold over whatsoever to be moved into based case institutions;

This is like watching a referee walking around slapping players and taking their wallets and expecting nothing to happen.

Does anyone in Europe read history anymore?

Aznar was right wing, wasn't he? the ex Franco party was in power before Zapatero.
But it is getting very murky indeed .

I think Franco's outfit has had various re-incarnations but the new lot are to the right of where Aznar was according  to the media (I accept I am relying on them).

Edit: Wiki says Aznar is now on the Board of Directors at News Corporation, which of course has nothing to do with Iraq IIRC.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 21, 2011, 05:27:59 PM
irishtimes.com - Last Updated: Monday, November 21, 2011, 13:38Troubled states may face 'administration'
European Commission could, in extreme cases, put a euro zone country under administration if it fails to meet its financial obligations, according to guidelines for the possible introduction of joint euro zone bonds.

In a green paper to be published on Wednesday, the commission sets out how closer monitoring of countries' budgets could in the long-run make it possible to issue jointly underwritten euro zone debt.

In one section of the document, obtained by Reuters, officials flag the possibility that EU authorities could get powers to put a failing state into administration if it repeatedly fails to meet its commitments.

Such strict controls could satisfy Germany, which strongly opposes the idea of euro zone bonds, that such issuance in the future would not let spendthrift nations off the hook.

Germany is reluctant to back common bonds because it fears it would allow countries such as Greece to benefit from its top-notch credit rating without having to introduce overdue reforms.

Under the headline, "increased surveillance and intrusiveness in national fiscal policies", officials from the European Commission say the creditworthiness of any new scheme for common bonds must be steadfast.

"The servicing of Stability Bonds, or more specifically the payment of interest on common issuance, should not come under any circumstances into question," the green paper says.

"One option to this end would be to grant extensive intrusive power at EU level in cases of severe financial distress, including the possibility to put the failing member state under some form of 'administration'."

The paper flags another option of imposing a requirement on countries that borrow using a commonly issued bond to repay this debt first before they spend money in their national budgets.It also describes the benefits of a common bond for banks, which are finding it difficult to borrow and increasingly turning to the European Central Bank for support.

"Stability Bonds would provide a source of more robust collateral for all banks in the euro area, reducing their vulnerability to deteriorating credit ratings of individual member states."

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 21, 2011, 05:31:16 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 21, 2011, 05:27:59 PM
irishtimes.com - Last Updated: Monday, November 21, 2011, 13:38Troubled states may face 'administration'
European Commission could, in extreme cases, put a euro zone country under administration if it fails to meet its financial obligations, according to guidelines for the possible introduction of joint euro zone bonds.

In a green paper to be published on Wednesday, the commission sets out how closer monitoring of countries' budgets could in the long-run make it possible to issue jointly underwritten euro zone debt.

In one section of the document, obtained by Reuters, officials flag the possibility that EU authorities could get powers to put a failing state into administration if it repeatedly fails to meet its commitments.

Such strict controls could satisfy Germany, which strongly opposes the idea of euro zone bonds, that such issuance in the future would not let spendthrift nations off the hook.

Germany is reluctant to back common bonds because it fears it would allow countries such as Greece to benefit from its top-notch credit rating without having to introduce overdue reforms.

Under the headline, "increased surveillance and intrusiveness in national fiscal policies", officials from the European Commission say the creditworthiness of any new scheme for common bonds must be steadfast.

"The servicing of Stability Bonds, or more specifically the payment of interest on common issuance, should not come under any circumstances into question," the green paper says.

"One option to this end would be to grant extensive intrusive power at EU level in cases of severe financial distress, including the possibility to put the failing member state under some form of 'administration'."

The paper flags another option of imposing a requirement on countries that borrow using a commonly issued bond to repay this debt first before they spend money in their national budgets.It also describes the benefits of a common bond for banks, which are finding it difficult to borrow and increasingly turning to the European Central Bank for support.

"Stability Bonds would provide a source of more robust collateral for all banks in the euro area, reducing their vulnerability to deteriorating credit ratings of individual member states."

What is the difference between where Greece is and administration?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 21, 2011, 05:35:36 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1121/supermarket.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1121/supermarket.html)

An increase in the maximum size of supermarkets in Ireland's largest cities has been proposed by the Government.
The development follows a commitment under the IMF-EU Programme that the State would consider eliminating the cap on retailers' size.
In a consultation document published today by Environment Minister Phil Hogan, the cap on supermarkets in the Greater Dublin area will increase from 3,500sq.m to 4,000sq.m.


Seriously, how does increasing the size of supermarkets find its way into an IMF-EU bailout programme? And why?? It is hard not to be cynical.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 22, 2011, 07:30:27 AM
From the Telegraph but an interesting perspective with some truths

If you have half an hour, read the by Philip Whyte and Simon Tilford for the Centre for European Reform.
It is a forensic look into the deeper causes of Europe's crisis and why the reactionary policies being imposed on two thirds of the eurozone by Germany's Wolfgang Schauble and the northern neo-Calvinists – with input from 1930s liquidationists at the ECB – will lead to certain disaster.
It has been out for a week, but I have only got round to reading it. Better late than never. The CER is a pro-EU group with a broadly free-market leaning.
Here are a few extracts:
European policy-makers have been reluctant to concede that the eurozone is institutionally flawed. Even now, many assert that the crisis is not one of the eurozone itself, but of errant behaviour within it. If certain countries had not broken the rules, they argue, the eurozone would never have run into trouble. The way to restore confidence, it follows, is to ensure that rules are rigorously enforced.
These claims are wrong on almost every count. It is now clear that a monetary union outside a fiscal union is a deeply unstable arrangement; and that efforts to fix this flaw with stricter and more rigid rules are making the eurozone less stable, not more.
The reason the eurozone is governed by rules is that few of its member-states – least of all its wealthier North European ones – have any appetite for fiscal union. Crudely, rules (gouvernance) exist because common fiscal institutions (gouvernement) do not. But rules are no substitute for common institutions. And tighter rules do not amount to greater fiscal integration.
The hallmark of fiscal integration is mutualisation – a greater pooling of budgetary resources, joint debt issuance, a common backstop to the banking system, and so on. Tighter rules are not so much a path to mutualisation, as an attempt to prevent it from happening.
This course of action is more likely to precipitate the euro's disintegration than its survival.
Why is the eurozone in crisis?
The short answer is that the introduction of the euro spurred the emergence of enormous macroeconomic imbalances that were unsustainable, and that the eurozone has proved institutionally ill-equipped to tackle. North European policy-makers have been reluctant to accept this interpretation. For them, the crisis is not one of the eurozone itself, but of individual behaviour within it. If the eurozone is in difficulty, it is because of a few 'bad apples' in its ranks. In this interpretation, neither the design of the eurozone nor the behaviour of the 'virtuous' in the core were at fault.
Ever since the eurozone crisis broke out, the North European interpretation of it has prevailed. It essentially sees the crisis as a morality tale, pitting those who sinned against those who stuck to the path of virtue. The major sins of the periphery were government profligacy and losses of competitiveness. The way out of the crisis, it follows, is straightforward. It is to emulate the virtuous core by consolidating public finances and improving competitiveness (by raising productivity, reducing wages, or both). If the periphery can achieve this, then the eurozone debt crisis can be resolved without an institutional leap forward to fiscal union.
The North European interpretation is by no means all wrong (no serious observer disputes that Greece grossly mismanaged its public finances). But it is damagingly partial and self-serving. It skates over the contribution played by the euro's introduction to the rise of indebtedness in the periphery; it wrongly assigns all the blame for peripheral indebtedness to government profligacy; it makes no mention of the far from innocent role played by creditor countries in the run-up to the crisis; and it does not acknowledge how the it was wasted (perhaps unsurprisingly).
It is wrong, however, to blame government profligacy for the rise in peripheral indebtedness: Greece is the only country where this holds true. In Ireland and Spain, it was the private sector (particularly banks and households) that was to blame. Indeed, in 2007, the Spanish and Irish governments looked more virtuous than Germany's: they had never broken the fiscal rules, had lower levels of public debt and ran budget surpluses.
Creditor countries cannot be absolved of all blame. Not only was export-led growth in countries like Germany and the Netherlands structurally reliant on rising indebtedness abroad. But creditor countries in the core harboured plenty of vice: the conduits for the capital that flowed from core to periphery were banks, and these were more highly leveraged in countries like Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium than they were in the periphery (or the Anglo-Saxon world).
The eurozone crisis is as much a tale of excess bank leverage and poor risk management in the core as of excess consumption and wasteful investment in the periphery. If the eurozone had been a fully-fledged fiscal union, it would not be in its current predicament. Its aggregate public debt and deficit ratios, after all, are no worse than the US's. But it is not a fiscal union – which is why it faces an existential crisis, and the US does not.
The current crisis, then, is not simply a tale of fiscal irresponsibility and lost competitiveness in the eurozone's geographical periphery. It is also about the unsustainable macroeconomic imbalances to which the launch of the euro contributed (in creditor and debtor countries); about the epic misallocation of capital by excessively leveraged absence of fiscal integration has exacerbated financial vulnerabilities and made the crisis harder to resolve.
How did the euro's introduction contribute to the current crisis? The answer is that the removal of exchange rate risk inside the eurozone encouraged massive sums of capital to flow from thrifty countries in the 'core' to countries in the 'periphery' (where private investors thought the rates of return were higher). The influx of foreign capital cut borrowing costs in the periphery, encouraging households, firms and governments to spend more than they earned. The result was an explosion of current-account imbalances inside the eurozone. As a share of GDP, these imbalances were far bigger than those between, say, the US and China.
Ever since the Greek sovereign debt crisis broke out, the thrust of eurozone policy has been to try and turn the region into a less Mediterranean and more Germanic bloc – that is a shared currency held together by increased discipline among its members. The centrepiece of the framework that has emerged is a 'grand bargain' between creditor and debtor countries. Creditor countries have assented to the creation of a European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) to extend bridging loans to countries that are temporarily shut out of the bond markets. In return, debtor countries have agreed to much stricter membership rules.
The grand bargain (or Plan A) has failed. The reason is that its  underlying philosophy – that of 'collective responsibility' – is flawed.
The demands of collective responsibility have been asymmetric: self-defeating medicine has been prescribed to debtor countries, while problems in creditor countries have been allowed to fester. Second, too much virtue has become a collective vice, resulting in excessively tight macroeconomic policy for the region as a whole.
The European Central Bank (ECB) believes that the faster budget deficits are cut, the faster private consumption and investment will pick up. The reverse has been the case. The ECB, meanwhile, has done too little to offset this synchronised fiscal tightening (in July, it actually raised its key official interest rate, citing "upside risks to price stability"). For a variety of reasons, the ECB has been deeply uncomfortable straying from the narrowest interpretation of its mandate. At times, the ECB has looked to be more concerned about inflation than about the eurozone's survival.
The ECB's reluctance to act as lender of last resort to governments, for example, has raised doubts in the financial markets about its commitment to the eurozone, and weakened confidence in solvent countries like Spain and Italy.
The punishing (and self-defeating) economic adjustments imposed on debtor countries contrasts with the self-righteous complacency shown in the creditor countries. Not only have the latter insisted that debtor countries implement the kind of structural reforms for which they have shown no enthusiasm themselves (like opening services to greater competition). But they have also been reluctant to accept the potential for write-downs among their banks. So the very countries that have insisted on wrenching economic adjustments indebtor countries have often been the ones that have done the most to conceal the fragility of their own banks.
This asymmetry in treatment has deepened the crisis and increased the cost of resolving it. A year's worth of punishing austerity and contracting activity has only succeeded in pushing Greece deeper into insolvency. Contagion has spread to Ireland and Portugal (which have been forced to accept bail outs and swallow the same medicine as Greece). And foot-dragging in a number of countries has condemned the region to a series of weak 'stress tests' which have given clean bills of health to under-capitalised banks. Eurozone policy has therefore actively contributed to the vicious feed-back loop that has developed between banks and sovereigns.
Having spent two years denying that many European banks were under-capitalised, eurozone leaders finally relented – but at a terrible time. Fresh capital is much harder to raise from the private sector than it was a year ago, and several eurozone governments (including France) can ill afford to step in with taxpayer funds.
The eurozone crisis is chronic in character and requires far-reaching reforms. The euro is a currency union without a Treasury or a lender of last resort. The macroeconomic policy framework is ill-suited to a big, largely closed, economy, and the national markets are insufficiently flexible and imperfectly integrated.
Policy-makers now face a choice. They must either address the eurozone's institutional underpinnings or risk a disorderly break-up.
They need to agree on a number of long-term steps. The first is a partial mutualisation of sovereign borrowing costs, via the adoption of a common bond. The second is the adoption of a eurozone-wide backstop for the banking sector. The third is growth-orientated macroeconomic policy: the European Central Bank needs a broader mandate, member-states' fiscal policy must be co-ordinated, and trade balances narrowed symmetrically.
On current policy trends, a wave of sovereign defaults and bank failures are unavoidable. Much of the currency union faces depression and deflation. The ECB and EFSF will not keep a lid on bond yields, with the result that countries will face unsustainably high borrowing costs and eventually default. This, in turn, will cripple these countries' banking sectors, but they will be unable to raise the funds needed to recapitalise them. Stuck in a vicious deflationary circle, unable to borrow on affordable terms, and subject to quixotic and counter-productive fiscal and other rules for what support they do get from the EFSF and ECB, political support for continued membership will drain away.
Faced with a choice between permanent slump and rising debt burdens (as economic contraction and deflation leads to inexorable increases in debt), countries will elect to quit the currency union. At least that route will allow them to print money, recapitalise their banks and escape deflation. Once Spain or Italy opts for this, an unravelling of the eurozone will be unstoppable. Investors will not believe that France could continue to participate in a core euro: the country has weak public finances and a sizeable external deficit.
Participation in a core eurozone would imply a potentially huge real currency appreciation and a corresponding collapse in economic activity. Investors will calculate that the wage cuts (to restore competitiveness) and cuts in public spending (to rein in the fiscal deficit) would be politically unsustainable. In short, France will effectively be in the same position as Italy and Spain are at present. While it is impossible to put a timescale on this, the direction of travel is clear.
Eurozone leaders now face a choice between two unpalatable alternatives. Either they accept that the eurozone is institutionally flawed and do what is necessary to turn it into a more stable arrangement. This will require some of them to go beyond what their voters seem prepared to allow, and to accept that a certain amount of 'rule-breaking' is necessary in the short term if the eurozone is to survive intact. Or they can stick to the fiction that confidence can be restored by the adoption (and enforcement) of tougher rules. This option will condemn the eurozone to self-defeating policies that hasten defaults, contagion and eventual break-up.
Indeed. Read it all.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 22, 2011, 07:33:38 AM
Another opinion piece

Europe's hidden doomsday machine
Oliver Marc Hartwich
Published 6:14 AM, 22 Nov 2011 Last update 10:35 AM, 22 Nov 2011

How many crises are there in Europe? First, there is a sovereign debt crisis, which is plain to see just looking at bond markets. Second, there is the crisis of competitiveness in European periphery countries, which is exacerbated by their membership of the monetary union. Third, there is a crisis of Europe's banking system, which desperately needs recapitalisation. But there is a fourth European crisis that has so far escaped the attention of even many professional observers. And yet, this fourth and largely unknown crisis has the potential to overshadow all other crises. It is Europe's escalating balance of payments crisis.
Europe's countries have established a clearing mechanism to connect their banking systems. This 'Trans-European Automated Real-time Gross Settlement Express Transfer System' – or in short TARGET 2 – is meant to facilitate bank transfers across all EU member states (with the notable exceptions of the UK and Sweden). In ordinary times, Target would have been a technical tool without political implications. But times in Europe are not ordinary, and so over the past four years Target has become a potential time bomb for Europe's financial system. Since the beginning of the financial crisis interbank lending from core to periphery European countries has all but dried up. At the same time, periphery countries have experienced massive capital flight out of their countries. On top of that, there are trade deficits in European periphery countries which need to be financed by capital imports. All three factors combined have triggered a European balance of payments crisis under the Target system. Put simply, central banks in surplus countries have to fill the gap caused by capital flight and trade imbalances because private capital is no longer available to do just that. In this way, central banks from the healthier core of the eurozone are now sitting on enormous amounts of claims against the euro system.

The German Bundesbank as the biggest lender has so far accumulated claims totalling more than €460 billion (approximately $615 billion). This sum is more than twice the guarantees given by the German government to the European rescue fund EFSF, for which the German parliament, after a long discussion, had only provided the comparatively modest sum of €211 billion. The only other major creditors within the euro system are Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Finland, whereas all other eurozone countries are net debtors within Target. Are these enormous Bundesbank claims against most of the rest of Europe a problem? Or are they just an accounting technicality with no serious consequences? It depends not only on who you ask, but it also matters how the euro crisis develops in the long run.

The greatest critic of Germany's exposure to Target loans is Hans-Werner Sinn, president of Munich's Ifo research institute. According to Professor Sinn, Germany is effectively financing the trade imbalances in the eurozone. His argument goes like this: countries like Greece or Italy import more than they export, without being able to borrow to make up for the difference. What they do instead is run the (virtual) printing presses and transfer the freshly printed euros to Germany. In this way, Sinn argues, the Target system is being abused to maintain trade deficits which should have been eliminated in the crisis. He also believes that this process has restricted credit availability within Germany as most of the newly created central bank money is concentrated on the euro periphery. The controversy over the balance of payments crisis has raged mainly in German academic circles for some time now. Not least the Bundesbank and the European Central Bank have vehemently defended the Target mechanism against Sinn's claims. To them the Target imbalances are just a symptom of the euro crisis, not a crisis in itself. The imbalances within the system cancel each other out and would eventually return to normal levels once the crisis is over.

In any case, the ability of Germany's commercial banks to lend would not be limited in any way. The only thing to change is the way in which German banks refinance themselves, either via deposits or through the Bundesbank. But all of these defences ignore a more unpleasant long-term question. A few weeks ago the Council of Economic Advisers joined the debate in its annual report. The German government's experts concluded that not all of the Target imbalances are the results of trade imbalances. Fair enough, but not even Sinn had claimed that. The Council also confirms that credit restrictions should not be expected. It then maintains that there is no technical limit to Target balances. However, there may come a day when Germany's commercial banking sector turns from a net debtor of the Bundesbank to a net creditor. This would require some financial engineering on behalf of the ECB to avoid a zero interest rate. So is everything fine with Target after all? Not quite.

In its final paragraph on the Target problem, the Council drily comments that in case of a default of any debtor nation, their Target balances would have to be written off by other eurozone countries according to their share of the ECB's subscribed capital. In the German case this share is 27 per cent. In plain language: If, say, Greece defaulted, its negative €97 billion Target balance would lead to a Bundesbank loss of €26.2 billion. Ultimately, German taxpayers would then have to recapitalise their central bank. Unfortunately, this is not even the worst case scenario. The German share of potential writedowns increases with every country departing from the eurozone. If more countries left without being able (or willing?) to balance their Target books, Germany would take even higher losses. Conversely, should Germany one day decide that it wishes to leave the euro behind to introduce its new Deutschmark, the chances are close to zero that other European countries would voluntarily settle their half a trillion euro bill with Germany. It now looks as if for the past four years of the financial crisis, Germany has effectively kept the trade imbalances party going in the euro periphery countries. But when the party is over, Germany will be sitting on enormous claims against these other countries, which will be effectively worthless.

What was once meant as a technical tool to facilitate bank transfers has become a doomsday machine. Worse still, Target has cemented trade imbalances within Europe that should have been corrected during the financial crisis. The Germans have also implicitly subsidised banks in periphery countries, which should have been liquidated when they could no longer recapitalise themselves. For Europe there is no easy way out of this balance of payments crisis. The Target debtor countries will resist any restrictions on central bank credit, desirable as they are. On the other hand, a creditor exit from the system would finally reveal to the creditor public the amount of implicit subsidies given to the euro periphery (without any debates, let alone a democratic mandate). What Europe is still discussing and Germany is vehemently resisting – the transformation into a fiscal liability union – has long been achieved through the Target backdoor. Brace yourself for the day when Europe finally wakes up to its forgotten fourth crisis. Dr Oliver Marc Hartwich is a Research Fellow at the Centre for Independent Studies.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 23, 2011, 01:20:24 PM
The good news just keeps on coming:

German bond sale 'a disaster'

Germany failed to get bids for 35 per cent of the 10-year bonds offered for sale today, sending its borrowing costs higher and the euro lower on concern that Europe's debt crisis is driving investors away from the region.

"This auction is nothing short of a disaster for Germany," Mark Grant, a managing director at Southwest Securities in Florida, said. "If the strongest nation in Europe has this kind of difficulty raising capital one shudders concerning the upcoming auctions in other European nations."

The debt crisis that began more than two years ago in Greece and snared Ireland, Portugal, Italy and Spain has closed in on France and now risks engulfing Germany, the region's biggest economy. Political leaders are struggling to find a fix for the crisis, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel rejecting proposals for the common currency-area bonds, while the European Central Bank resists calls to boost sovereign debt purchases.

The yield on 2.25 per cent securities maturing in September 2021 climbed four basis points to 1.96 per cent at 11.37am Irish time today. The price of the bonds slid 0.40, or €4 per €1,000 face amount, to 102.520. The cost of credit default swaps on German debt rose six basis points to 107, according to CMA prices. The euro weakened as much as 1 per cent to $1.3374.

Total bids at the auction of securities due in January 2022 amounted to €3.889 billion, out of a maximum target for the sale of €6 billion, according to Bundesbank data. The securities were sold at a yield of 1.98 per cent.

French and Belgian bonds fell for a third day after De Standaard newspaper said Belgium is seeking to renegotiate the break-up plan for lender Dexia.

"The notion some people had that Germany could be insulated against market developments was a pipedream," Fredrik Erixon, head of the European Centre for International Political Economy in Brussels, said. "The systemic crisis in the euro zone is eating its way into countries that are solvent and have competitive economies, like Germany. But because they are in the euro zone the crisis is spreading to them."

The rate on 30-year German bond climbed as much as seven basis points to 2.68 per cent, the highest since November 9th. Germany's Finance Agency sees no risk in financing the government's budget after demand was weak at a debt auction today, a spokesman said today.

The yield on 10-year French debt increased 10 basis points to 3.63 per cent, while the rate on similar-maturity Belgian securities was 14 basis points higher at 5.22 per cent.

German bonds have returned 8.2 per cent this year, according to indexes compiled by Bloomberg and the European Federation of Financial Analysts Societies. French bonds have gained 0.9 per cent and Belgian securities have dropped 3.3 per cent, the indexes show.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 23, 2011, 02:11:25 PM
Fiscal Assessment Report: Discussion with Irish Fiscal Advisory Council

Thursday, 17 November 2011

http://debates.oireachtas.ie/FIJ/2011/11/17/00005.asp

Stephen Donnelly "One of the roles the council can play is not just in providing analysis and recommendations but in communicating the analysis and recommendations. The information provided by the ESRI is not bad, but it is still fairly complex, while that provided by the Department of Finance is just political spin. I can read some of it, but I cannot read all the information that is coming from everywhere. The fiscal council can play an extraordinarily valuable role in explaining these things to the people of Ireland, who have become extraordinarily financially and economically literate over the last three or four years.
I love the graphics in the report and the way it is laid out, and I love the illustration of the benchmarking of different groups. I encourage the council to get people in - maybe it already has them - who can help nail the communications to different audiences, whether it is people such as Professor Barrett, trained economists or people who are scared about what is going on. Within that, some scenario modelling would be useful."

Deputy Stephen Donnelly: I wish to clarify this. With regard to the capital expenditure programme will the council have only the little booklet that came out? Is that all the council has to respond to?
Professor John McHale: That is all we have to respond to. We could
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 23, 2011, 03:38:10 PM
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204531404577054063759403588.html?mod=WSJEUROPE_hpp_LEFTTopWhatNews (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204531404577054063759403588.html?mod=WSJEUROPE_hpp_LEFTTopWhatNews)

Disaster Planning: Banks Ponder Euro-Zone Split

BY EVA SZALAY

A key part of the world's foreign-exchange trading infrastructure is bracing itself for the possibility of a breakup of the euro zone, the latest sign investor concerns about the Continent's debt crisis are on the rise.

CLS Bank International, which operates a platform in which banks settle most of their currency trades, is running "stress tests" to prepare for the possible dissolution of the euro, according to people familiar with the situation.

Some of the 63 banks that co-own CLS are making similar plans. "We always plan for contingencies," said a senior executive at one of the largest currency-dealing banks.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 23, 2011, 08:24:39 PM

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1123/breaking4.html

Department of Finance secretary general Kevin Cardiff has been rejected for the nomination for Ireland's seat in the European Court of Auditors, by a budgetary committee of the European Parliament.

Mr Cardiff was questioned by MEPs in Brussels today as they scrutinised his nomination. The committee decided to reject his nomination by 12 votes to 11.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 24, 2011, 08:47:00 AM
Yep - he failed the interview was voted out but still can get in as it has been referred to the Parliament - Democracy in action ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: sammymaguire on November 24, 2011, 09:23:40 AM
Quote from: Declan on November 24, 2011, 08:47:00 AM
Yep - he failed the interview was voted out but still can get in as it has been referred to the Parliament - Democracy in action ;)

Dont take this the wrong way but you seem to be revelling in all this mess. You love keeping us updated on the shit that is going on, the different angles of doom and misery and corruption etc.... which is good in one way of course but....

Are you going to actually do anything other than post stuff on here?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 24, 2011, 10:09:48 AM
QuoteAre you going to actually do anything other than post stuff on here?

I'm not sure what you mean by that Sammy. If you mean will I offer suggestions of a possible way out of it well lots of better qualified people than me are struggling to but my fundamental belief is that govts are there to serve the people who elected them and not private financial institutions. In this regard I believe that the open ended bank guarantee given back in 2008 was the death knell for Ireland as we know it. Given that we have a track record of what could be loosely termed as a right wing monetarist economic policy I can't see anything happening outside of what ever European wide solution will eventually surface.
In the meantime the majority of the population will continue to suffer, struggle to heat their house, educate their kids, and even die due to the state of our health system but bar a sea change  in our national psyche we seem ready to accept this as our lot. ( I could theorise as to why I think that is but that would be another whole days work!!)

I honestly don't know where it's going to end but I can't see it ending well. Rumours abound that we are printing punts in preparation for the end game which will mean a drastic change in all our circumstances but which may well be the best course of action in the long term for future generations.

In the meantime I'll continue to post the "informative" pieces so people can make up their own mind ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hardy on November 24, 2011, 10:41:06 AM
Quote from: muppet on November 18, 2011, 05:32:52 PM
Quote from: Hardy on November 18, 2011, 04:47:28 PM
Quote from: fearglasmor on November 18, 2011, 04:35:24 PM
So we owe 104bn to the UK as much as we owe to Germany and France put together.
But the UK owe us 113bn................

Y'see this is the stuff I just don't get. How come the other side of the balance sheet is never netted off our national debt?

Presumably this 113Bn the UK owes "us" is owed to Irish banks - which, since we now own them, really is us. So our balance with the UK is 9Bn positive. Or else the 113Bn we owe them is after we net off the 104Bn they owe us.

Could somebody who understands this tell me how it works?

Here is one article which helps although I recall a better one. I'll keep looking.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/dan-roberts-on-business-blog/interactive/2009/jan/29/financial-pyramid (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/dan-roberts-on-business-blog/interactive/2009/jan/29/financial-pyramid)

Belated thanks, Muppet.

What I was getting at was this idea of debt cross cancellation of national sovereign debts, as proposed in this exercise. (https://files.me.com/anthonyjevans/674a4n) Professor Jeremy Baker was on George Hook's show yesterday talking about it, but he didn't address satisfactorily the problem with this proposal, which is this, as far as I can see:

While the debtor entities (in the case of sovereign debt) are sovereign states, the creditor entities are private banks (leaving aside the consideration of nationalised banks, for simplicity). In other words, when we say "Ireland owes the UK 40 Billion" we mean  Ireland owes 40 Billion to some UK banks, not to the UK state. Likewise when we say "the UK owes Ireland 50 Billion", the money is owed to Irish (let's assume private) banks.

Therefore it's not possible to cross-cancel these national debts by arranging for the UK state to cancel Ireland's 40 Billion debt and the Irish state to cancel 40 Billion of the UK's 50  Billion debt, leaving the UK owing Ireland 10 Billion. Where do the actual creditors, the UK and Irish  banks, get their money in this scenario?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: armaghniac on November 24, 2011, 10:45:25 AM
According to the  IMF, Anglo Irish Bank broke the Euro!!
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2011/wp11269.pdf
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: sammymaguire on November 24, 2011, 12:19:51 PM
Quote from: Declan on November 24, 2011, 10:09:48 AM
QuoteAre you going to actually do anything other than post stuff on here?

I'm not sure what you mean by that Sammy. If you mean will I offer suggestions of a possible way out of it well lots of better qualified people than me are struggling to but my fundamental belief is that govts are there to serve the people who elected them and not private financial institutions. In this regard I believe that the open ended bank guarantee given back in 2008 was the death knell for Ireland as we know it. Given that we have a track record of what could be loosely termed as a right wing monetarist economic policy I can't see anything happening outside of what ever European wide solution will eventually surface.
In the meantime the majority of the population will continue to suffer, struggle to heat their house, educate their kids, and even die due to the state of our health system but bar a sea change  in our national psyche we seem ready to accept this as our lot. ( I could theorise as to why I think that is but that would be another whole days work!!)

I honestly don't know where it's going to end but I can't see it ending well. Rumours abound that we are printing punts in preparation for the end game which will mean a drastic change in all our circumstances but which may well be the best course of action in the long term for future generations.

In the meantime I'll continue to post the "informative" pieces so people can make up their own mind ;)

I am kind of getting to the point where I am sick of reading and am starting to think taking to the streets is the way to go.

An uprising could be needed, what do you reckon? 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Rossfan on November 24, 2011, 12:52:33 PM
Quote from: sammymaguire on November 24, 2011, 12:19:51 PM
I am kind of getting to the point where I am sick of reading and am starting to think taking to the streets is the way to go.

An uprising could be needed, what do you reckon?
Away you go and start it , then the rest of us will see whether we'll join you  ;D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: sammymaguire on November 24, 2011, 12:57:06 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on November 24, 2011, 12:52:33 PM
Quote from: sammymaguire on November 24, 2011, 12:19:51 PM
I am kind of getting to the point where I am sick of reading and am starting to think taking to the streets is the way to go.

An uprising could be needed, what do you reckon?
Away you go and start it , then the rest of us will see whether we'll join you  ;D

thats the problem with this country... someone needs to take a stand at some point. The people in power are ripping the piss big style and everyone is just sitting back and taking it up the you know what!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 24, 2011, 01:02:09 PM
Quotethats the problem with this country... someone needs to take a stand at some point. The people in power are ripping the piss big style and everyone is just sitting back and taking it up the you know what

Talking about ripping the piss here's our former great TD and Minister Dick Roche pontificating in the Wall Street Journal no less about the crisis!! Funnily his omissions are more notable than the actual article but it just shows the contempt the selected few have for people.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203611404577045850805579064.html?mod=WSJEUROPE_hpp_sections_opinion (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203611404577045850805579064.html?mod=WSJEUROPE_hpp_sections_opinion)

viva la revolution which won't happen here until they start rationing booze
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: thejuice on November 24, 2011, 01:20:07 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on November 24, 2011, 12:52:33 PM
Quote from: sammymaguire on November 24, 2011, 12:19:51 PM
I am kind of getting to the point where I am sick of reading and am starting to think taking to the streets is the way to go.

An uprising could be needed, what do you reckon?
Away you go and start it , then the rest of us will see whether we'll join you  ;D

Who do suggest we go after? The banks? the government? Bank premises? the IFSC? the Central Bank?

and How? Do we withdraw all our funds and put them in the Credit Union. How do you hurt these institutions?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Denn Forever on November 24, 2011, 01:38:24 PM
Talking about ripping the piss here's our former great TD and Minister Dick Roche pontificating in the Wall Street Journal no less about the crisis!! Funnily his omissions are more notable than the actual article but it just shows the contempt the selected few have for people.

I was going to make the observation of "why are people asking the architects of out crisis any thing" then I remembered Kevin Cardiff debacle. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 24, 2011, 01:59:05 PM
Quote from: thejuice on November 24, 2011, 01:20:07 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on November 24, 2011, 12:52:33 PM
Quote from: sammymaguire on November 24, 2011, 12:19:51 PM
I am kind of getting to the point where I am sick of reading and am starting to think taking to the streets is the way to go.

An uprising could be needed, what do you reckon?
Away you go and start it , then the rest of us will see whether we'll join you  ;D

Who do suggest we go after? The banks? the government? Bank premises? the IFSC? the Central Bank?

and How? Do we withdraw all our funds and put them in the Credit Union. How do you hurt these institutions?

I was thinking about this a lot. Protests in Roscommon about hospital services and Laois about a nursing home (to name just two) are doomed to fail. These are single issue local agendas that the rest of the country don't give a toss about. However at least those people went out and marched. The real question is how do you get them all to march together?

You would need a unifying cause (or causes) that didn't carry any baggage or hidden agendas.

My instinct would be to attack the powers that be in the EU on a democratic platform. For example, Barroso was demanding yesterday that what he called democratic powers be transferred from countries to the EU or in other words transfer more power to himself. However he himself was not elected by the people of the EU. He was appointed by the then heads of State.

Another possible crusade would be a campaign to force the Government to either hold a vote on the bank bailout or to split the bank debt from the sovereign debt. Again that could be on a democratic platform as that burden seems to have been forced upon us by the unelected mandarins in the EU & ECB.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Rossfan on November 24, 2011, 02:50:19 PM
I propose that the Government should give every man woman and child in the 26 counties an equal share of the same amount they had to borrow to bail out the failed reckless irresponsible banks.
I know it would mean more borrowings in the short term but sure the ECB love us anyway so...

So say divide € 90,000,000,000 by 4,400,000 gives us € 20,454 each.

Only stipulation is that it be in vouchers which can only be exchanged for goods in the 26Cos or to pay off loans to banks ,HP, Credit Unions etc.

All that economic activity would have the Country back on its feet in no time and the taxes on all that activity plus savings on Soc Welfare etc would enable the Govt to have a load of the debt paid off before we'd run out of steam.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: sammymaguire on November 24, 2011, 03:24:00 PM
Another possible crusade would be a campaign to force the Government to either hold a vote on the bank bailout or to split the bank debt from the sovereign debt. Again that could be on a democratic platform as that burden seems to have been forced upon us by the unelected mandarins in the EU & ECB.

You could be on to something here... Ireland must be the laughing stock of Europe.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on November 25, 2011, 08:15:19 AM
Interesting comments here from Noonan in the Telegraph which I haven't heard being publicised widely. He hints at the reckless lenders but confirms that the general public are going to be continually screwed.

Ireland demands debt relief, warns on EU treaties
Europe's plans for treaty changes to enforce fiscal discipline in the eurozone may fall foul of popular anger in Ireland unless the EU creditor states agree to share more of the pain.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, in Dublin
The Irish government has suddenly complicated the picture by requesting debt relief from as a reward for upholding the integrity of the EU financial system after the Lehman crisis, though there is no explicit linkage between the two issues.

"We carried an undue burden for protecting the European banking system from contagion," said finance minister Michael Noonan.
"We are looking at ways to reduce the debt. We would like to see our European colleagues address this in a positive manner. Wherever there is a reckless borrower, there is also a reckless lender," he said, alluding to German, French, British and Dutch banks.

Mr Noonan hinted that Dublin is asking for some of interested relief on a €31bn EU promissory noted linked to the Anglo Irish fiasco, among other matters.

"We have indicated to Europe's authorities that it will be difficult to get the Irish public to pass a referendum on treaty change," he said.
The EU's new fiscal rules would be legally binding and "justiciable" before the European Court, he said. This raises the likelihood that Ireland's top court would insist on a referendum.
The Irish voted `No' to both the Nice and Lisbon Treaties, before being pressured into repeat ballots, and would certainly some form of quid pro quo in this case.
Ireland took on the bulk of the debt from its oversized banking system in 2008, resisting a chorus of calls for the country to follow Iceland's example and walk away from private bank liabilities. Had Ireland done so, it might have set off a catastrophic chain reaction across Britain and Europe.
The fateful move has saddled the taxpayers with colossal losses from Anglo Irish and other banks, and will push public debt to near 118pc of GDP by 2014. There is a widespread resentment in Ireland that taxpayers were sacrificed for the greater cause of Europe without receiving any acknowledgement from the EU's creditor states.
Ireland was ordered to pay a penal surcharge of 300 basis points on the orginal EU loan package, which Mr Noonan described as a "piece of foolishness" that has since been abandoned. "Bank shareholders were wiped out already so they had their sharp lesson in moral hazard."
Ireland has imposed haircuts on the junior debt tranches of rescued banks. Mr Noonan said this may now be extended to Bank of Ireland debt to help cover €350m of fresh capital it needs by next month. The state holds 15pc of the bank's equity.
Mr Noonan said Ireland is sheltered from the storm blowing through the eurozone since it does not need market funding until 2013, but the crisis cannot be allowed to drag on. "Some way will have to be found to create a firewall. The role of the ECB is a matter of debate. There may be legal difficulties in it operating in the same way as the Federal Reserve.Whether the ECB has a role in working with the IMF or EFSF (bail-out fund) is under discussion," he said.
Ireland has no "detailed contingency plans" for a eurozone break-up. "Obviously, we have thought about it, but it's a very remote possibility," he said.
Mr Noonan said the country will stay the course with unbending austerity, even though nominal gross national product (GNP) has already contracted by 22pc. Public wages have fallen 12pc on average under Ireland's "internal devaluation" policy to regain competitiveness within EMU. There are likely to be further wage cuts in the December budget.
"We have to face reality. There is no painless way, no soft option: we're going to cut spending drastically, but with social cohesion. We don't want situation we see in Greece with people on streets and the foundations of state under threat. We're not going that route."
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 25, 2011, 03:40:41 PM
Quote from: Declan on November 25, 2011, 08:15:19 AM
Interesting comments here from Noonan in the Telegraph which I haven't heard being publicised widely. He hints at the reckless lenders but confirms that the general public are going to be continually screwed.

Ireland demands debt relief, warns on EU treaties
Europe's plans for treaty changes to enforce fiscal discipline in the eurozone may fall foul of popular anger in Ireland unless the EU creditor states agree to share more of the pain.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, in Dublin
The Irish government has suddenly complicated the picture by requesting debt relief from as a reward for upholding the integrity of the EU financial system after the Lehman crisis, though there is no explicit linkage between the two issues.

"We carried an undue burden for protecting the European banking system from contagion," said finance minister Michael Noonan.
"We are looking at ways to reduce the debt. We would like to see our European colleagues address this in a positive manner. Wherever there is a reckless borrower, there is also a reckless lender," he said, alluding to German, French, British and Dutch banks.

Mr Noonan hinted that Dublin is asking for some of interested relief on a €31bn EU promissory noted linked to the Anglo Irish fiasco, among other matters.

"We have indicated to Europe's authorities that it will be difficult to get the Irish public to pass a referendum on treaty change," he said.
The EU's new fiscal rules would be legally binding and "justiciable" before the European Court, he said. This raises the likelihood that Ireland's top court would insist on a referendum.
The Irish voted `No' to both the Nice and Lisbon Treaties, before being pressured into repeat ballots, and would certainly some form of quid pro quo in this case.
Ireland took on the bulk of the debt from its oversized banking system in 2008, resisting a chorus of calls for the country to follow Iceland's example and walk away from private bank liabilities. Had Ireland done so, it might have set off a catastrophic chain reaction across Britain and Europe.
The fateful move has saddled the taxpayers with colossal losses from Anglo Irish and other banks, and will push public debt to near 118pc of GDP by 2014. There is a widespread resentment in Ireland that taxpayers were sacrificed for the greater cause of Europe without receiving any acknowledgement from the EU's creditor states.
Ireland was ordered to pay a penal surcharge of 300 basis points on the orginal EU loan package, which Mr Noonan described as a "piece of foolishness" that has since been abandoned. "Bank shareholders were wiped out already so they had their sharp lesson in moral hazard."
Ireland has imposed haircuts on the junior debt tranches of rescued banks. Mr Noonan said this may now be extended to Bank of Ireland debt to help cover €350m of fresh capital it needs by next month. The state holds 15pc of the bank's equity.
Mr Noonan said Ireland is sheltered from the storm blowing through the eurozone since it does not need market funding until 2013, but the crisis cannot be allowed to drag on. "Some way will have to be found to create a firewall. The role of the ECB is a matter of debate. There may be legal difficulties in it operating in the same way as the Federal Reserve.Whether the ECB has a role in working with the IMF or EFSF (bail-out fund) is under discussion," he said.
Ireland has no "detailed contingency plans" for a eurozone break-up. "Obviously, we have thought about it, but it's a very remote possibility," he said.
Mr Noonan said the country will stay the course with unbending austerity, even though nominal gross national product (GNP) has already contracted by 22pc. Public wages have fallen 12pc on average under Ireland's "internal devaluation" policy to regain competitiveness within EMU. There are likely to be further wage cuts in the December budget.
"We have to face reality. There is no painless way, no soft option: we're going to cut spending drastically, but with social cohesion. We don't want situation we see in Greece with people on streets and the foundations of state under threat. We're not going that route."

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1125/breaking35.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1125/breaking35.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter)

This might explain Noonan's comments. They are now talking about leaving private banks out of any bailouts, which is a bit f**king late for us!

In other news: http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1125/breaking34.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1125/breaking34.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter)

Spain is 'considering' outside aid. This means they are past the bit where  Noel Dempsey (and Dermot Ahern) goes on the news and say they have seen no IMF people anywhere, 'have you Dermot?'.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on November 25, 2011, 04:12:32 PM
Wow!

http://www.broadsheet.ie/2011/11/25/kevins-gate-the-back-to-back-loans/ (http://www.broadsheet.ie/2011/11/25/kevins-gate-the-back-to-back-loans/)

Any fool knew that Irish Life didn't give a €7bn loan to Anglo without a nod from the State. (This was deliberately misleading the markets at best). But Cowen and Lenihan denied they knew anything and up to now we never heard a hint of a name.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on November 25, 2011, 05:08:56 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 25, 2011, 03:40:41 PM
Quote from: Declan on November 25, 2011, 08:15:19 AM
Interesting comments here from Noonan in the Telegraph which I haven't heard being publicised widely. He hints at the reckless lenders but confirms that the general public are going to be continually screwed.

Ireland demands debt relief, warns on EU treaties
Europe's plans for treaty changes to enforce fiscal discipline in the eurozone may fall foul of popular anger in Ireland unless the EU creditor states agree to share more of the pain.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, in Dublin
The Irish government has suddenly complicated the picture by requesting debt relief from as a reward for upholding the integrity of the EU financial system after the Lehman crisis, though there is no explicit linkage between the two issues.

"We carried an undue burden for protecting the European banking system from contagion," said finance minister Michael Noonan.
"We are looking at ways to reduce the debt. We would like to see our European colleagues address this in a positive manner. Wherever there is a reckless borrower, there is also a reckless lender," he said, alluding to German, French, British and Dutch banks.

Mr Noonan hinted that Dublin is asking for some of interested relief on a €31bn EU promissory noted linked to the Anglo Irish fiasco, among other matters.

"We have indicated to Europe's authorities that it will be difficult to get the Irish public to pass a referendum on treaty change," he said.
The EU's new fiscal rules would be legally binding and "justiciable" before the European Court, he said. This raises the likelihood that Ireland's top court would insist on a referendum.
The Irish voted `No' to both the Nice and Lisbon Treaties, before being pressured into repeat ballots, and would certainly some form of quid pro quo in this case.
Ireland took on the bulk of the debt from its oversized banking system in 2008, resisting a chorus of calls for the country to follow Iceland's example and walk away from private bank liabilities. Had Ireland done so, it might have set off a catastrophic chain reaction across Britain and Europe.
The fateful move has saddled the taxpayers with colossal losses from Anglo Irish and other banks, and will push public debt to near 118pc of GDP by 2014. There is a widespread resentment in Ireland that taxpayers were sacrificed for the greater cause of Europe without receiving any acknowledgement from the EU's creditor states.
Ireland was ordered to pay a penal surcharge of 300 basis points on the orginal EU loan package, which Mr Noonan described as a "piece of foolishness" that has since been abandoned. "Bank shareholders were wiped out already so they had their sharp lesson in moral hazard."
Ireland has imposed haircuts on the junior debt tranches of rescued banks. Mr Noonan said this may now be extended to Bank of Ireland debt to help cover €350m of fresh capital it needs by next month. The state holds 15pc of the bank's equity.
Mr Noonan said Ireland is sheltered from the storm blowing through the eurozone since it does not need market funding until 2013, but the crisis cannot be allowed to drag on. "Some way will have to be found to create a firewall. The role of the ECB is a matter of debate. There may be legal difficulties in it operating in the same way as the Federal Reserve.Whether the ECB has a role in working with the IMF or EFSF (bail-out fund) is under discussion," he said.
Ireland has no "detailed contingency plans" for a eurozone break-up. "Obviously, we have thought about it, but it's a very remote possibility," he said.
Mr Noonan said the country will stay the course with unbending austerity, even though nominal gross national product (GNP) has already contracted by 22pc. Public wages have fallen 12pc on average under Ireland's "internal devaluation" policy to regain competitiveness within EMU. There are likely to be further wage cuts in the December budget.
"We have to face reality. There is no painless way, no soft option: we're going to cut spending drastically, but with social cohesion. We don't want situation we see in Greece with people on streets and the foundations of state under threat. We're not going that route."

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1125/breaking35.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1125/breaking35.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter)

This might explain Noonan's comments. They are now talking about leaving private banks out of any bailouts, which is a bit f**king late for us!In other news: http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1125/breaking34.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1125/breaking34.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter)

Spain is 'considering' outside aid. This means they are past the bit where  Noel Dempsey (and Dermot Ahern) goes on the news and say they have seen no IMF people anywhere, 'have you Dermot?'.

I think that means they won't ask private banks to take hits on their bonds.  But am not sure how that would have helped us. -
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: orangeman on November 25, 2011, 06:47:26 PM
I always like Robert Peston's articles - they're easily understood for starters - he reckons 2012 will be the defining year in this whole downturn :

I've got some good news, and some bad news.

The good news is that if we get through 2012 without the financial collapse of a big bank or a eurozone government, our economy will probably muddle through, flatlining rather than falling back into acute recession.

The bad news is that 2012 is the year of greatest risk that a bloated bank or over-extended government will be unable to repay its debts - because it is a year when a frightening volume of the loans that were taken out in the boom years fall due for repayment.

In private equity, for example, much of the money that was borrowed to finance the buyouts of big companies from 2005-7 has to be paid back in the coming year.

In practice, it would mean replacing old debts with new debts - borrowing new money to repay existing creditors.

One specialist in this kind of finance told me that he has just been approached by a private-equity firm looking to refinance £2.5bn of maturing debt. His instinctive reaction: fat chance.

Why so gloomy?

Well capital markets are more-or-less closed for highly leveraged companies (businesses with big debts). And banks are strapped for capital and under orders from regulators not to take substantial new financial risks.

So goodness only knows how these big companies will find the cash they need.

Which may of course trigger losses for current lenders.

That said, the amount of debt maturing for private-equity owned companies pales into insignificance compared with the debts of banks that have to be repaid or refinanced in 2012.

European banks in general will need to find an estimated 810bn euros to repay loans that are falling due (according to research by Royal Bank of Scotland). Of this, British banks financing need will be around 110bn euros.

And then, of course, there is the bulge of European government debt that needs to be repaid.

So adding together maturing debt, new borrowing and interest payments, Italy will need to find 400bn euros, France a tiny a bit less, Spain around 220bn euros and the UK approximately 260bn euros (my calculations based on data from Bloomberg and the European Commission).

As I have pointed out before, Italy, France and Spain are more at risk of a funding crisis than the UK, because their central bank, the European Central Bank, will not buy their debts to any substantial extent.

There may be good reasons for the ECB's refusal to be the lender of last resort, not least of which is that any purchase of one nation's debt by the ECB represents a subsidy to that nation from the rest of the eurozone, without explicit or implicit permission being given by the electorates of the other sovereign states (see Tuesday's post, The eurozone's borrowing costs may stay lethally high, for more on this).

Or to put it another way, it's not completely bonkers that the German government does not wish to - in effect - finance the lifestyles of Italians and Spanish people, without checking whether German voters think that's tickety-boo.

But if Germany won't lend to its eurozone partners, who should?

Here's the thing: in a crisis the liabilities of banks and the liabilities of governments are broadly the same thing, as the poor beleaguered Irish government has found to its cost.

And, as I say, when you look simply at the 2012 refinancing needs of financially stressed eurozone states and banks, well it's a big number.

So if you happen to be a money manager in Boston or Abu Dhabi or Singapore, looking after billions of dollars of other people's money, and you can't identify a lender of last resort to interconnected eurozone states and eurozone banks - you can't see who is going to bail out the currency union if it all goes horribly wrong - you may well think that increasing or even maintaining your exposure to the eurozone is something of a sucker bet.

Which is one reason why eurozone governments and banks are finding it harder and more expensive to borrow - and why, with all those debts falling due in 2012, eurozone leaders haven't got long to agree a credible rescue package, if they're to skirt default, banking meltdowns and eurozone fracture.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: thejuice on November 28, 2011, 05:06:41 PM
Britain on the brink of a modest recession

QuoteBritain is on the brink of a modest recession that will be followed by months of stunted growth, a bleak forecast from the OECD said today.

Predicting that the UK will endure another period of contraction, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said GDP will shrink in the final quarter of 2011 and the first quarter of 2012.

It slashed the UK's 2012 growth to just 0.5% from 1.8% earlier this year and said it expects unemployment to hit 9.1% by 2013, putting another 400,000 people out of work.

The OECD said the eurozone debt crisis was "the key risk" to the world economy and warned the slowdown in global growth is in danger of escalating into a full-blown recession without "decisive action" to shore up the currency bloc.

It said the eurozone already appears to be in a mild recession and it now expects the currency bloc to grow just 0.2% in 2012, down from its previous estimate of 1.6%, in a major blow for the UK's export hopes.

OECD chief economist Pier Carlo Padoan said eurozone leaders had failed to take urgent action to tackle "the real and growing risks to the global economy".

He called for a "substantial" increase in the eurozone bailout fund and for the European Central Bank to play a greater role in shoring up the finances of debt-ridden nations to prevent the crisis dragging the world economy down.

With growth in the UK hit by weak demand for exports, the Government's austerity measures and the squeeze in consumer spending, the OECD expects the Bank of England to pump a further £125 billion into the economy in the coming months, bringing the total to £400 billion.

The UK's slump is set to be modest compared with the 2008/09 recession and the economy is likely to start recovering after two quarters of decline. GDP growth of 1.8% is forecast in 2013.

But there is a risk that the downturn will be deeper than projected, as the eurozone debt crisis has the potential to hit the banking sector and weaken confidence.

It warned that the Government should be ready to pump more money into banks if the financial crisis worsens.

The OECD also said unemployment, which currently stands at 8.3% - its highest since 1996 - will rise to 9.1% in 2013, putting another 400,000 workers out of a job on top of the 2.6 million already unemployed.

Employment is likely to take a bigger hit than in the last recession because businesses have less scope to reduce wages and adjust the amount of time employees' work.

The OECD called on the Government to pump more resources into employment training to help mitigate the impact of rising unemployment, particularly for young people who are already suffering a 20% rate of joblessness.

Chancellor George Osborne may also have to consider easing his programme of spending cuts if the economy worsened but will still have to increase austerity measures later to ensure medium-term targets are met. It suggested the Government could further increase the retirement age to improve long-term prospects.

The Chancellor, who is tomorrow due to report a series of measures to boost the economy in his Autumn Statement, said: "What is clear from the OECD is that these are very difficult times for many countries in the Western world.

"The OECD is predicting deep recessions in many European countries. That is a challenge for Britain.

"What we can do with our policies is take Britain safely through this storm. But we have got to lay the foundations for future economic success."

France, Germany and Italy are predicted to suffer contractions as the eurozone debt crisis worsens.

Emerging nations are growing more slowly than previously thought and there was also a danger the US could slip back into recession amid its austerity measures, according to its forecast.

Prime Minister David Cameron will travel to Paris on Friday for talks on the eurozone crisis with President Nicolas Sarkozy ahead of next week's crunch summit of the European Council.

A Treasury spokesman said: "The UK economy is not immune to the turbulence in the eurozone and its impact on British businesses, but the difficult decisions taken by the Government has made the UK a relative safe haven in the sovereign debt storm and helped to keep interest rates at record low levels for businesses and households.

"The Government is using all levers to protect the UK economy."

PA
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on December 01, 2011, 10:20:22 AM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1201/eurozone.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1201/eurozone.html)

Nicolas Sarkozy set for landmark EU speech

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: AZOffaly on December 01, 2011, 11:10:51 AM
What would ye think of buying gold with any savings you might have? Safe? Crazy? Obviously I'd discuss with a Financial Advisor, but just wondering if anyone else has gone down this way, especially if you have a few bob in a savings account? If the Euro collapses, and we revert to a devalued Punt, I don't want to be left with stuff that can only be used as toilet paper.

How about buying Yen, or Dollars, or even Sterling?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: passedit on December 01, 2011, 11:47:50 AM
Quote from: AZOffaly on December 01, 2011, 11:10:51 AM
What would ye think of buying gold with any savings you might have? Safe? Crazy? Obviously I'd discuss with a Financial Advisor, but just wondering if anyone else has gone down this way, especially if you have a few bob in a savings account? If the Euro collapses, and we revert to a devalued Punt, I don't want to be left with stuff that can only be used as toilet paper.

How about buying Yen, or Dollars, or even Sterling?

Have you any debt (including mortgage debt)? If so start there. Nothing else is a safe investment. As I said before, your next best is probably baked beans and bullets.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on December 01, 2011, 11:50:50 AM
Quote from: AZOffaly on December 01, 2011, 11:10:51 AM
What would ye think of buying gold with any savings you might have? Safe? Crazy? Obviously I'd discuss with a Financial Advisor, but just wondering if anyone else has gone down this way, especially if you have a few bob in a savings account? If the Euro collapses, and we revert to a devalued Punt, I don't want to be left with stuff that can only be used as toilet paper.

How about buying Yen, or Dollars, or even Sterling?

*NB take with a huge health warning

Stirling mightn't be bad but it is hard to see how Britain would escape the fallout given all the debt crossovers. Imagine of Greece defaulted on a Monday, leading to Portugal defaulting the next monday, leading to Spain defaulting the next monday and so on with Ireland then Italy joining in, hard to see how Britain would cope with such a huge amount of their loans being defaulted upon.

The scary phrase we don't want to hear is 'Capital controls' or something similar. That might happen in Ireland in advance of a breakup, but would almost definitely happen everywhere after such a break-up. The danger here is that you might move your money to somewhere safer than Ireland, only to find that particular state imposes capital controls after the Euro collapses and you mightn't be able to get the money out of there, or international transactions by then attract a huge taxes leaving and entering states. Where does that leave you if you buy Gold or foreign currencies? It is all guesswork really.

Personally I want any disposable cash (n.b. but not held as cash) to be wherever Germany is. I would hope to be able to leave it long term until any crisis is over. You mention gold, it is hard to believe that the price nowadays is attractive or sustainable.

But nothing is foolproof. The EU Commission apparently making plans to 'force' Greek money in Swiss banks back into Greek banks: http://brucekrasting.blogspot.com/2011/11/on-capital-flight-and-forced.html (http://brucekrasting.blogspot.com/2011/11/on-capital-flight-and-forced.html)

Scary stuff.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hound on December 01, 2011, 12:19:03 PM
Quote from: AZOffaly on December 01, 2011, 11:10:51 AM
What would ye think of buying gold with any savings you might have? Safe? Crazy? Obviously I'd discuss with a Financial Advisor, but just wondering if anyone else has gone down this way, especially if you have a few bob in a savings account? If the Euro collapses, and we revert to a devalued Punt, I don't want to be left with stuff that can only be used as toilet paper.

How about buying Yen, or Dollars, or even Sterling?
Another option (no idea whether a good idea or not!) would be to open a Danish Kroner account (currently offered by investec.ie).

I've also heard people investing in German Treasury Bills for 6 months to 1 year - but for every 102-103 you put in, you only get 100 back, i.e. they are becoming such a popular hedge they can offer negative yields.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on December 01, 2011, 12:41:17 PM
Quote from: AZOffaly on December 01, 2011, 11:10:51 AM
What would ye think of buying gold with any savings you might have? Safe? Crazy? Obviously I'd discuss with a Financial Advisor, but just wondering if anyone else has gone down this way, especially if you have a few bob in a savings account? If the Euro collapses, and we revert to a devalued Punt, I don't want to be left with stuff that can only be used as toilet paper.

How about buying Yen, or Dollars, or even Sterling?

Gold is very volatile at the moment. The Euro probably won't break up. It would destroy the global economy for at least 5 years.
Even the 1% don't want that.

If enough people thought that the Euro was unsafe and pulled their money out of the banks the currency would collapse. The job of the authorities is to make sure this doesn't happen.   It all depends on confidence.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: whiskeysteve on December 01, 2011, 06:27:41 PM
Quote from: seafoid on December 01, 2011, 12:41:17 PM
Quote from: AZOffaly on December 01, 2011, 11:10:51 AM
What would ye think of buying gold with any savings you might have? Safe? Crazy? Obviously I'd discuss with a Financial Advisor, but just wondering if anyone else has gone down this way, especially if you have a few bob in a savings account? If the Euro collapses, and we revert to a devalued Punt, I don't want to be left with stuff that can only be used as toilet paper.

How about buying Yen, or Dollars, or even Sterling?

Gold is very volatile at the moment. The Euro probably won't break up. It would destroy the global economy for at least 5 years.
Even the 1% don't want that.

If enough people thought that the Euro was unsafe and pulled their money out of the banks the currency would collapse. The job of the authorities is to make sure this doesn't happen.   It all depends on confidence.

The volatilty of Gold as it stands should not be a major worry IMO. While it is the finite element that it is, it will always retain value (as it has done for thousands of years). Silver should be considered also (precious for use in industry also).

With the central banks around the world now consigned to printing money, debt and fiat currency could well be on an exponential curve (e.g. by the time you know the currency is about to fatally debased, its too late):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8WBiTnBwSWc

The above is a fascinating presentation on the economy, energy and environmental challenges of the coming 20 years. Doesn't look good for us.

Fiat currency is backed by nothing and throughout history has been shown to be anything but sacred. Why couldn't the dollar or euro become worthless at some point in the future with our politicians as short-sighted and divided as they are (in europe at least)?

In my opinion, one of the ways to protect yourself in the coming years (if you have savings) would be to secure your energy requirements or lack thereof. Never pay any heed to broad brush verdict on micro renewables for example, they depend entirely on your circumstances.

We have a micro hydro generator installed on a piece of land for example and it is turning out to be a great investment (the house is totally off-grid for several thousand quid of capital and you earn a tariff for everything you generate, moreso if it goes back into the grid)

Putting yourself and your family in the position of being as self-sustainable as is practible in terms of energy and food requirements is not a bad move, sure even if everything turns out grand with the economy you are adding to the value of your land/property.

Invest in self-sustainability if you can or precious metals if you can.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Orangemac on December 02, 2011, 12:05:03 AM
If the Euro is to be saved it seems as if some sort of deal involving the ECB helping out with sovereign debt alongside greater integration of fiscal management is on the cards

Any new treaty which may include corporation tax will have be ratified by the Irish people. Would the further concession of control over budgetary/taxation measures to Europe be worth getting a significant proportion of the EU/IMF loan paid//written off?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on December 02, 2011, 09:19:02 AM
Get your new punts!!
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/irish-designer-comes-up-with-a-cheeky-take-on-images-for-punt-nua-if-euro-collapses-2952523.html?start=6 (http://www.independent.ie/national-news/irish-designer-comes-up-with-a-cheeky-take-on-images-for-punt-nua-if-euro-collapses-2952523.html?start=6)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on December 02, 2011, 09:53:02 AM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on December 01, 2011, 06:27:41 PM
Quote from: seafoid on December 01, 2011, 12:41:17 PM
Quote from: AZOffaly on December 01, 2011, 11:10:51 AM
What would ye think of buying gold with any savings you might have? Safe? Crazy? Obviously I'd discuss with a Financial Advisor, but just wondering if anyone else has gone down this way, especially if you have a few bob in a savings account? If the Euro collapses, and we revert to a devalued Punt, I don't want to be left with stuff that can only be used as toilet paper.

How about buying Yen, or Dollars, or even Sterling?

Gold is very volatile at the moment. The Euro probably won't break up. It would destroy the global economy for at least 5 years.
Even the 1% don't want that.

If enough people thought that the Euro was unsafe and pulled their money out of the banks the currency would collapse. The job of the authorities is to make sure this doesn't happen.   It all depends on confidence.

The volatilty of Gold as it stands should not be a major worry IMO. While it is the finite element that it is, it will always retain value (as it has done for thousands of years). Silver should be considered also (precious for use in industry also).

With the central banks around the world now consigned to printing money, debt and fiat currency could well be on an exponential curve (e.g. by the time you know the currency is about to fatally debased, its too late):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8WBiTnBwSWc

The above is a fascinating presentation on the economy, energy and environmental challenges of the coming 20 years. Doesn't look good for us.

Fiat currency is backed by nothing and throughout history has been shown to be anything but sacred. Why couldn't the dollar or euro become worthless at some point in the future with our politicians as short-sighted and divided as they are (in europe at least)?

In my opinion, one of the ways to protect yourself in the coming years (if you have savings) would be to secure your energy requirements or lack thereof. Never pay any heed to broad brush verdict on micro renewables for example, they depend entirely on your circumstances.

We have a micro hydro generator installed on a piece of land for example and it is turning out to be a great investment (the house is totally off-grid for several thousand quid of capital and you earn a tariff for everything you generate, moreso if it goes back into the grid)

Putting yourself and your family in the position of being as self-sustainable as is practible in terms of energy and food requirements is not a bad move, sure even if everything turns out grand with the economy you are adding to the value of your land/property.

Invest in self-sustainability if you can or precious metals if you can.

the gold price hit a record in 1980 . When gordon Brown sold the Uk's gold around 10 years ago the price was 30% or so of what it had been in 1980.
It's like any asset. The price you buy in at is crucial.   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on December 02, 2011, 10:00:36 AM
"Gold gets dug out of the ground... we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head." – Warren E. Buffett, 1998

http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2011/05/11/what-if-warren-buffett-is-right-about-gold/

We are now at the shoeshine boy stage for gold imo.

Whisky Steve's energy rec is a good one.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hardy on December 02, 2011, 11:07:35 AM
This (http://www.truth-out.org/why-iceland-should-be-news-not/1322327303) is how a people with a sense of nationhood, democracy and self respect asserts its sovereignty against any and all forces, domestic and foreign, acting against its interests:

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: passedit on December 02, 2011, 11:19:59 AM
Quote from: Hardy on December 02, 2011, 11:07:35 AM
This (http://www.truth-out.org/why-iceland-should-be-news-not/1322327303) is how a people with a sense of nationhood, democracy and self respect asserts its sovereignty against any and all forces, domestic and foreign, acting against its interests:

It's a bit more complicated than that Hardy. Have a wee read at

this thread (http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=172389&st=0)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Hardy on December 02, 2011, 11:26:59 AM
Quote from: passedit on December 02, 2011, 11:19:59 AM
Quote from: Hardy on December 02, 2011, 11:07:35 AM
This (http://www.truth-out.org/why-iceland-should-be-news-not/1322327303) is how a people with a sense of nationhood, democracy and self respect asserts its sovereignty against any and all forces, domestic and foreign, acting against its interests:

It's a bit more complicated than that Hardy. Have a wee read at

this thread (http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=172389&st=0)

Ah I know, but you'd find yourself wishing that we had a modicum of the self respect and refusal to be ridden that the Icelanders display.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: passedit on December 02, 2011, 11:34:44 AM
Quote from: Hardy on December 02, 2011, 11:26:59 AM
Quote from: passedit on December 02, 2011, 11:19:59 AM
Quote from: Hardy on December 02, 2011, 11:07:35 AM
This (http://www.truth-out.org/why-iceland-should-be-news-not/1322327303) is how a people with a sense of nationhood, democracy and self respect asserts its sovereignty against any and all forces, domestic and foreign, acting against its interests:

It's a bit more complicated than that Hardy. Have a wee read at

this thread (http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=172389&st=0)

Ah I know, but you'd find yourself wishing that we had a modicum of the self respect and refusal to be ridden that the Icelanders display.

Same corrupt self serving elite though i'm afraid.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: fearglasmor on December 02, 2011, 11:40:26 AM
Anyone who thinks that this German Fiscal Union will be a limited benign helping hand to keep our finances in order is living in a fools paradise. Just as a woman cant be partially pregnant, a country cant be partially sovereign, either it is or it isnt. And if we vote or are shunted by our government into a German Fiscal Union then we are no longer a sovereign state. The days of the small nation veto will be gone, qualified majority decisions will be essential to make the Fiscal Union work. I just hope that the majority of people in this country will shake off their traditional political apathy in time to see whats happening and ensure it is stopped.

Lucinda Creighton, talking about the EU summit next week says that any decisions the Government take will be in the interest of the Irish people.........do you trust them.

The US are constantly criticised for looking to effect regime change through military intervention but teh EU/Germany have effected regime change in Greece and Italy by stealth and no one has batted an eyelid.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Rossfan on December 02, 2011, 12:43:28 PM
What a pity the Germans didnt effect regime change in Ireland around 2000 or 2001 when the Bertiecunts were getting their National Destruction policies into full swing  >:(
Harneycunt boasting about being more like Boston and Berlin and all that.
That gang brought us nearer to Harare .

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on December 02, 2011, 01:45:46 PM
Quote from: fearglasmor on December 02, 2011, 11:40:26 AM
Anyone who thinks that this German Fiscal Union will be a limited benign helping hand to keep our finances in order is living in a fools paradise. Just as a woman cant be partially pregnant, a country cant be partially sovereign, either it is or it isnt. And if we vote or are shunted by our government into a German Fiscal Union then we are no longer a sovereign state. The days of the small nation veto will be gone, qualified majority decisions will be essential to make the Fiscal Union work. I just hope that the majority of people in this country will shake off their traditional political apathy in time to see whats happening and ensure it is stopped.

Lucinda Creighton, talking about the EU summit next week says that any decisions the Government take will be in the interest of the Irish people.........do you trust them.

The US are constantly criticised for looking to effect regime change through military intervention but teh EU/Germany have effected regime change in Greece and Italy by stealth and no one has batted an eyelid.

Good post.

The treaty is not for greater fiscal union, look at Greece and Italy, Germany has exactly what it wants there already. The treaty is about the ability to punish or expel countries. That is why Kenny was happy to piss off Merkel by calling it 'problematic'.

Can you imagine a scenario whereby say Washington had the power to force, for example, California out of the Union due to finances? Think of the leverage that would give the central Government. e.g. Raise corporation tax or you are gone. They could conceivably force the removal of governments.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on December 02, 2011, 02:21:45 PM
http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2011/12/02/time-for-a-deal-on-ela/#comments (http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2011/12/02/time-for-a-deal-on-ela/#comments)

The comments below about Anglo are more interesting that the main article. It seems we will be bailing out that despicable organisation until 2031.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on December 02, 2011, 03:18:48 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1202/euro-business.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1202/euro-business.html)

And there it is...........

QuoteMerkel said there was "no alternative to treaty change" which would codify budgetary discipline in the euro zone. "Rules must be respected. Respect for them must be supervised. Their violation must have consequences," she said.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: whiskeysteve on December 02, 2011, 04:17:55 PM
Quote from: seafoid on December 02, 2011, 09:53:02 AM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on December 01, 2011, 06:27:41 PM
Quote from: seafoid on December 01, 2011, 12:41:17 PM
Quote from: AZOffaly on December 01, 2011, 11:10:51 AM
What would ye think of buying gold with any savings you might have? Safe? Crazy? Obviously I'd discuss with a Financial Advisor, but just wondering if anyone else has gone down this way, especially if you have a few bob in a savings account? If the Euro collapses, and we revert to a devalued Punt, I don't want to be left with stuff that can only be used as toilet paper.

How about buying Yen, or Dollars, or even Sterling?

Gold is very volatile at the moment. The Euro probably won't break up. It would destroy the global economy for at least 5 years.
Even the 1% don't want that.

If enough people thought that the Euro was unsafe and pulled their money out of the banks the currency would collapse. The job of the authorities is to make sure this doesn't happen.   It all depends on confidence.

The volatilty of Gold as it stands should not be a major worry IMO. While it is the finite element that it is, it will always retain value (as it has done for thousands of years). Silver should be considered also (precious for use in industry also).

With the central banks around the world now consigned to printing money, debt and fiat currency could well be on an exponential curve (e.g. by the time you know the currency is about to fatally debased, its too late):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8WBiTnBwSWc

The above is a fascinating presentation on the economy, energy and environmental challenges of the coming 20 years. Doesn't look good for us.

Fiat currency is backed by nothing and throughout history has been shown to be anything but sacred. Why couldn't the dollar or euro become worthless at some point in the future with our politicians as short-sighted and divided as they are (in europe at least)?

In my opinion, one of the ways to protect yourself in the coming years (if you have savings) would be to secure your energy requirements or lack thereof. Never pay any heed to broad brush verdict on micro renewables for example, they depend entirely on your circumstances.

We have a micro hydro generator installed on a piece of land for example and it is turning out to be a great investment (the house is totally off-grid for several thousand quid of capital and you earn a tariff for everything you generate, moreso if it goes back into the grid)

Putting yourself and your family in the position of being as self-sustainable as is practible in terms of energy and food requirements is not a bad move, sure even if everything turns out grand with the economy you are adding to the value of your land/property.

Invest in self-sustainability if you can or precious metals if you can.

the gold price hit a record in 1980 . When gordon Brown sold the Uk's gold around 10 years ago the price was 30% or so of what it had been in 1980.
It's like any asset. The price you buy in at is crucial.   

dont have time to respond in full but I think gold may have a while to rise yet - judging by the massive purchasing by central governments the world over at the present, the men in power certainly are scrambling to attain it. Russia, China, Korea and Hugo Chavez demanding all Venezeluan reserves back from London would be a case in point.

I wouldnt look on gold as an investment, more of a hedge and a security or insurance.

As always with finite precious metals it must be emphasised that their intrinsic value stays pretty constant, whilst their currency value can fluctuate wildy over the years. It is the paper that moves the price not the metal, and i think we will a lot more dollars will be buying a lot less gold as the dollar continues to be destroyed by the fed in their panic at an exponential debt rise.

Basically I reckon all commodities in limited supply will continue to soar in price relative to the result of the printing presses, including precious metals.

also the period 1980 - 2006 can also be a misleading time to reference gold in some regards given the unprecedented throughout history credit bubble, the bubble of all bubbles that is now bursting.

However, iif you are an optimist and think the euro, sterling or dollar will recover in the coming years then by all means stay away from gold!

Personally I think the whole she-bang is coming off the rails excentuated by the coming energy crisis - fossil fuels are becoming a lot harder and a lot more expensive to produce now - they will become more and more un-economic. There will be more conflict over them also - the US is under massive pressure to feed the military industrial complex.

I would never plough all the dough into precious metals but I would listen to the likes of jim rogers and marc faber in that they tend to keep about a quarter of their portfolio in silver/gold.

Personally I like the look of silver - for one thing it will always be in massive demand in industry.

But as i said previously, if I had a lot of savings, above all i would try and cut any debt, and secure my own energy and food sources as much as is practically possible. IF I had a LOT of money after that THEN i would seriously consider purchasing some physical silver.

Self-sustainability and Community are still the most important things in getting through these difficult times. You cant eat gold.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on December 02, 2011, 06:48:00 PM
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/02/portugal-pensions-idUSL5E7N22HK20111202 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/02/portugal-pensions-idUSL5E7N22HK20111202)

Portugal government to transfer 5.6 bln euros from bank pensions

In other words they have seized some private pensions. Private pensions are the last thing to be taken.........before bank deposits. Hungary has already done a version of this.

Going, going.........
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on December 02, 2011, 07:08:32 PM
Today's FT has a corker


In Europe, the elected leaders of five European Union members have been swept aside in just 18 months. Silvio Berlusconi's near perpetual grip on power in Italy was broken almost overnight. Further, forced austerity is now spreading across Europe, despite public opposition.

How did the markets amass so much power? The answers lie in globalisation, external imbalances and the surge of financial assets and financial technology. The expansion of global trade over the years led to a rise in global money flows. As Asia, India and Latin America became more global, the capital transfers between these regions and advanced economies grew. And it was the emerging countries that imported capital from advanced nations because internal savings were too small to finance development. But global finance changed when this historical pattern reversed. Many export-centred developing countries adopted conservative fiscal policies, which led to excess savings. China, for example, is sitting on $3tn of accumulated monetary reserves. In the US, savings declined and a large current account deficit developed. The result was an unprecedented recycling of capital from poorer countries to richer ones.

This change – together with a surge in the use of technology, deregulation, the emergence of larger financial institutions and an ageing, and increasingly wealthy, population in the west – expanded the scale of finance and the pressure for investment returns. The ratio of global financial assets to global gross domestic product has grown from 2.5x to almost 4x since 1990. In absolute terms, such assets now total $212tn. America's six largest banks have seen their total assets expand from 17 per cent of US GDP to 63 per cent over the same period.

It was inevitable, then, that global trading volumes in financial assets would rise sharply. Bond and commodity investing, for example, were revolutionised by the introduction of new financial instruments, the availability of greater leverage and new technology.

Whether this power is healthy or not is beside the point. It is permanent. Even a resumption of traditional patterns in global capital flows would not change it.

But, above all, there is no stopping the new policing role of the financial markets. There may be more frequent market crises. We should not rush to conclude that they will end in tears.
By Roger Altman
The writer is chairman of Evercore Partners and was US deputy treasury secretary under President Bill Clinton
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Orangemac on December 04, 2011, 11:34:39 AM
BBC2 flat out on financial crisis this week

Tonight  7:00      The Partys Over:How the West went bust

Monday 9:00         RBS: The bank that ran out of money.

Wednesday 9:00    Inside Job: Storyville doc narrated by Matt Damon
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on December 05, 2011, 10:12:29 AM
Welcome to our world Germany ...

Shares in Commerzbank have dropped after a report suggested that Germany is prepared to nationalise the bank if needed.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16029418
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Main Street on December 05, 2011, 02:19:36 PM
Quote from: passedit on December 02, 2011, 11:34:44 AM
Quote from: Hardy on December 02, 2011, 11:26:59 AM
Quote from: passedit on December 02, 2011, 11:19:59 AM
Quote from: Hardy on December 02, 2011, 11:07:35 AM
This (http://www.truth-out.org/why-iceland-should-be-news-not/1322327303) is how a people with a sense of nationhood, democracy and self respect asserts its sovereignty against any and all forces, domestic and foreign, acting against its interests:

It's a bit more complicated than that Hardy. Have a wee read at

this thread (http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=172389&st=0)

Ah I know, but you'd find yourself wishing that we had a modicum of the self respect and refusal to be ridden that the Icelanders display.

Same corrupt self serving elite though i'm afraid.

I think if you examined the response of the Icelanders to their crisis you would find quite some differences to Ireland. Passedit, that link you gave to a discussion board, which is not even based in Iceland, provides almost zero input.

The night before the banks were declared collapsed in Iceland, the conservative gov passed emergency laws, giving priority to depositors and imposed strict capital controls to prevent foreign cash reserves being drained.
What followed was remarkable, new banks were set up in place and overnight all bank accounts were transferred to the new banks. The hole in the wall kept doling out the cash. That fear of all fears, the hole in the wall would dry up, the fear scenario that the Irish public swallowed hook line and sinker, proved to be as real as a threatened plague of zombies.

The bondholders brought legal action to force the assets from the old iceland banks be distributed equally to all creditors, they failed and recently the Iceland Supreme Court upheld the decision. Bondholders have to abide by the laws of the land and the government can decide what is the law, can change their minds, backdate the revision and it's all legal in international law.

The referendums that were held in Iceland were not about citizens deciding not to pay bondholders, that issue was already sorted.
They were about the terms of the agreement the state was making with the UK and Netherlands for reimbursing the minimum €20k  for each deposit holder in the foreign branches of Landsbank and that the confiscated assets of the foreign branches should be first paid to those depositors - according to Iceland law.  If the assets were so distributed according to Iceland law then the state would save a fortune. That's how it panned out in the end.
The UK and Netherlands both had not committed themselves to distributing the assets giving the priority to the deposit holders,  but instead had made some vague promises which the Iceland public rejected in referendums.

The IMF intervention in Iceland way back in 2008 was a good thing. That is the original ideal by which the IMF was founded, to provide assistance to countries going through an intolerable phase.
The IMF could not dictate how the government should run the country. In particular, the IMF repeatedly called for the country to remove the restrictions on capital control but the Icelanders said no and the IMF said okay. They are still saying no, some 2 years later and the IMF still say okay.
The IMF intervention was delayed for months  by the UK and the Netherlands interference, in order to persuade the Iceland Gov to sign an agreement which totally favored the UK & NL.  So foreign cash reserves were at an all time low when the IMF finally decided to ignore the UK & NL and go ahead with the loan program.

The Irish government would have been much better off telling the ECB to go hump themselves with their citizens should pay bank private debts plan. The  could have changed the laws re depositer priority, let the corrupt banks collapse or let the creditors take over the bank,  set up new banks,  if necessary negotiate loans with the IMF to back a new independent currency, impose capital controls and use the cash reserves and pension funds to support the new currency and invest.
Instead of a €250bn sovereign debt, I'd estimate at most a €15bn - €20bn IMF loan would have sufficed. Then the country could have looked at ways to remove the inflated value of household debt.




Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: fearglasmor on December 05, 2011, 04:30:52 PM


From RTE website reporting on the meeting today between Merkel & Sarkozy :



"France and Germany have agreed on a series of reforms to address the eurozone debt crisis that will be presented to EU President Herman Van Rompuy on Wednesday.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy said the new proposals would include a modified EU treaty, ideally for all 27 EU members, but that they were also ready to draw up a treaty for the 17 eurozone members though this would be open to others.
Mr Sarkozy was speaking after a meeting in Paris with German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
"We want to make sure that the imbalances which led to the situation in the euro zone today cannot happen again," Mr Sarkozy told a news conference.
"Therefore we want a new treaty, to make clear to the peoples of Europe, members of Europe and members of the euro zone, that things cannot continue as they are," he added.
This treaty would include automatic sanctions for states who fail to meet the 3% deficit rule, the so-called 'Golden Rule', as well as a budget-balancing rule across the euro zone.
The French and German leaders also ruled out eurobonds as a solution to the debt crisis.
The European Court of Justice would not be able to overturn national budgetary decisions, but it could verify whether or not national governments were in breach of their own Golden Rules on deficits, the pair said.
President Sarkozy also said that eurozone leaders should meet each month while the crisis is ongoing.
The Franco-German plan will have to be approved by all 27 member states at this week's summit.
If only eurozone countries approve the plan they may be entitled to forge ahead according to EU rules allowing so-called "enhanced cooperation."
The Paris meeting marked the beginning of a critical week for the eurozone.
The ECB has for the first time signalled that it is ready to play a bigger role and its president, Mario Draghi, has demanded a new fiscal contract to restore long-term market confidence in return.
France and Germany have been working behind the scenes on how that should be achieved.
A potential collapse in the currency has reached the stage of contingency planning by some trans-global companies.
The Irish Government has resisted treaty change, but Taoiseach Enda Kenny has acknowledged that economic governance at eurozone level is now a necessary reality.



Does this mean a referendum is not required if our leader agrees to this on Friday ?

We were warned that the last treaty allowed self modification without reference to the electorate and this was dismissed by the government and all the yes brigade.
And now here we are.
The noises coming from Kenny and Lucinda Creighton (who I had never heard of until the last few days) are extremely worrying, to me at least.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: whiskeysteve on December 05, 2011, 05:36:37 PM
Creighton - from what ive seen on vincent brown shes a 'back to the markets' loon with an imperious cv who will jump through hoops for gold stars and status from europe. another f**king barrister. badly shown up by vincent, gurdgiev, stephen donnelly and anyone else who pays heed to economic reality
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Denn Forever on December 05, 2011, 05:41:39 PM
Poster girl for FG.

#(http://www.lucindacreighton.ie/wp-content/gallery/lucinda-creighton/callearycreightonsherlock.jpg)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on December 06, 2011, 06:01:36 PM
http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/12/06/the-eurozone's-terrible-mistake/ (http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/12/06/the-eurozone's-terrible-mistake/)

The euro zone's terrible mistake
DEC 5, 2011 23:36 EST
     
ECONOMICS | EURO | MORAL HAZARD | SOVEREIGN DEBT
The FT is reporting today that the new fiscal rules for the EU "include a commitment not to force private sector bondholders to take losses on any future eurozone bail-outs". If this principle really does get enshrined into some new treaty, it will be one of the most fiscally insane derelictions of statesmanship the world has seen — but it certainly helps explain the short-term rally that we saw today in Italian government debt.

Right now, the commitment is still vague:

Ms Merkel agreed that private sector bondholders would not be asked to bear some of the losses in any future sovereign debt restructuring, as she had insisted this year in the case of Greece's second bail-out. However, future eurozone bonds will still include collective action clauses providing for potential voluntary rescheduling of private debt.

Ms Merkel said it was imperative to show that Europe was a "safe place to invest".

You can safely ignore the bit about collective action clauses. They're part of the sovereign-debt architecture now, and taking them out would be far more trouble than it was worth: they have to stay in, no matter what. The important thing is that they won't be used — because if no one's going to ask bondholders to bear any losses, then they won't have any proposals to agree to.

The impetus for this completely insane policy seems to have come from the ECB, which genuinely seems to believe that bailing in private-sector banks, in the Greece restructuring, was the "terrible mistake" which caused the current euro crisis. Talk about confusing cause and effect: it was Greece's fiscal disaster which caused the restructuring and the necessary bail-in.

To understand just how stupid this is, all you need to do is go back and read Michael Lewis's Ireland article. The fateful decision in Ireland was to take the insolvent banks and give them a blanket bailout, with the banks' creditors all getting 100 cents on the euro. That only served to put a positively evil debt burden onto the Irish people, forcing a massive austerity program and causing untold billions of euros in foregone growth, while bailing out lenders who deserved no such thing.

Are we really going to repeat — on a much larger scale — the very same mistake that Ireland made? Does no one in Europe realize that this is the single worst thing they can do?

Markets reflect underlying realities, and up until now, the realities have been clear. Europe's periphery is sinking under the weight of too much debt, and the result will be inevitable pain for private-sector creditors. The best case scenario is that those countries bite the bullet and restructure their debt now, since to delay is to make any restructuring much more painful and expensive than it needs to be.

The worst case scenario is that the EU kicks the can down the road with one new bailout facility after another, until it eventually gives up throwing good money after bad and imposes the restructuring which was inevitable all along. In that case, as one hedge fund manager was explaining to me last week, private sector creditors get devastated: because the EU and the ECB and the IMF won't take any losses on their loans, all of the haircut, pretty much, will have to be borne by a private sector which accounts for only a fraction of the debt. So the private sector could end up with very, very little indeed.

Now, however, Angela Merkel has come up with another plan. The details aren't clear, but it seems to involve the EU guaranteeing the debts of its member states. Why this is acceptable while eurobonds aren't acceptable is a mystery: a mulit-trillion-euro contingent liability is hardly preferable to a couple of hundred billion euros of real liabilities. But there's eurologic for you.

The immediate result of this plan is that everybody will rush into the highest-yielding bonds in Europe, which is exactly what seems to have happened today. The other effect of the plan, however, is that every country in Europe is now effectively guaranteeing everybody else's debt. Which is more than sufficient to explain why S&P is minded to downgrade every country in Europe, up to and including Germany.

In order for markets to work, lenders need to suffer when they make bad lending decisions. If the Europeans didn't learn from Ireland, couldn't they at least learn from the Fed's much-criticized decision to pay off all AIG creditors at 100 cents on the dollar? Blanket guarantees at par are pretty much always a really bad idea — and this one, if it comes to pass, will be the biggest one yet. It won't end well.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Orangemac on December 06, 2011, 08:53:37 PM
So the Eu are going to guarantee all sovereign debt 8).

Plan B for Ireland,stop paying bondholders,EU will foot the bill and renegotiate deal with IMF until domestic deficit is small enough to allow return to market. Simples.

At the end of the day Merkel and Sarkozy are no different than Mattie McGrath, they are more worried about re election than doing the right thing.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: seafoid on December 06, 2011, 10:17:21 PM
Quote from: Orangemac on December 06, 2011, 08:53:37 PM


At the end of the day Merkel and Sarkozy are no different than Mattie McGrath

They drink wine rather than tea but other than that there is no real difference 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: thejuice on December 09, 2011, 10:50:04 AM
So what are we likley to get out of today?

A common EU corporate tax?

A Referendum?

David Cameron getting kicked in the balls by Merkozy and then the arse by his fellow Tories?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Denn Forever on December 09, 2011, 11:17:00 AM
Has Cameron not Vetoed Britain signing the proposed treaty?  Boris Johnson is happy with him.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-16104089

Most EU members have agreed to press ahead with a tax and budget pact to tackle the eurozone debt crisis.

But a German and French attempt to get all 27 EU states to back changes to the union's treaties was dropped after objections from the UK.

Prime Minister David Cameron had insisted on an exemption for the UK from some financial regulations
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Fear ón Srath Bán on December 09, 2011, 11:23:19 AM
It's now a two-speed (or two-tier) Europe, with the UK & Hungary opting out, and Sweden and the Czech Republic undecided (the question is, which tier is the faster?).
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Fear ón Srath Bán on December 09, 2011, 12:43:18 PM
Correction, it looks like the British will be the sole exclusionists!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: AQMP on December 09, 2011, 01:17:47 PM
Quote from: Fear ón Srath Bán on December 09, 2011, 12:43:18 PM
Correction, it looks like the British will be the sole exclusionists!

Yes, it's fast looking like the Brits could be on their own here.  Cameron has either played a blinder or just made the biggest political error since Neville Chamberlain.  We don't know yet.  Problem is, neither does he!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: thejuice on December 09, 2011, 01:57:30 PM
No referendum for Ireland it seems.

But what changes are being made and how are they going to affect us?

We have lost the control of corporation tax I assume.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Fear ón Srath Bán on December 09, 2011, 02:16:11 PM
Quote from: AQMP on December 09, 2011, 01:17:47 PM
Quote from: Fear ón Srath Bán on December 09, 2011, 12:43:18 PM
Correction, it looks like the British will be the sole exclusionists!

Yes, it's fast looking like the Brits could be on their own here.  Cameron has either played a blinder or just made the biggest political error since Neville Chamberlain.  We don't know yet.  Problem is, neither does he!

Yep, "(British) Peas in our time"  (Getting coat...)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Fear ón Srath Bán on December 09, 2011, 02:29:53 PM
Quote from: thejuice on December 09, 2011, 01:57:30 PM
But what changes are being made and how are they going to affect us?

We have lost the control of corporation tax I assume.

Those are the big questions, and I get the feeling that if they concede to Irish requests for a reduction in the cost of the loans then everything will be on the table.

Meanwhile, a picture of a fart in a spacesuit (Merkel with her back to us in the photo):

(http://www.irishtimes.com/homepage/images/1224308827701.jpg?ts=1323440663)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: FL/MAYO on December 10, 2011, 03:08:32 AM
This clip really explains it all in lay man terms

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yR0lWICH3rY&feature=youtube_gdata_player
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bcarrier on December 10, 2011, 07:27:49 AM
Smoke and mirrors.

The changes being introduced have little or nothing to do with solving the euro crisis. M&S = the healy-raes.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on December 10, 2011, 01:41:01 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on December 10, 2011, 07:27:49 AM
Smoke and mirrors.

The changes being introduced have little or nothing to do with solving the euro crisis. M&S = the healy-raes.

The lions have escaped and are devouring everything in sight. The solution is to agree bigger fines for fellas who feed the lions too much?

This is yet another a stunt to try to create 'confidence' in the markets. It will work about as well as everything else they have done to date.

Our deficit is huge because they forced Lenihan/Cowen to prevent our private bankrupt banks from collapsing. Then they introduce sanctions for Governments who run large deficits? It just does't make any sense and the crisis will roll on...........
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: armaghniac on December 10, 2011, 02:50:32 PM
QuoteThe lions have escaped and are devouring everything in sight.

There was a suggestion to hobble the lions, but the lionkeeper exercised a veto.

I haven't been too pessimistic in the past, but now they have definitely lost the plot.
Good summary here (from Irish economy)
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/orourke1/English
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: johnpower on December 10, 2011, 08:42:49 PM
Quote from: FL/MAYO on December 10, 2011, 03:08:32 AM
This clip really explains it all in lay man terms

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yR0lWICH3rY&feature=youtube_gdata_player

brilliant
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: lawnseed on December 11, 2011, 02:43:37 PM
david cameron is playing a blinder. he knows there is strong opposition in britain to further european integration and gerneral disillusionment with the whole european project. the so called 'bulldog spirit' is alive and well on the streets of britain. on the other hand hes dependant on the 'namby pamby' pro-european lib dems to stay in power they will have to swallow what hes done and lose further credibility or break up the coalition forcing a gereral election. given the way 'the city' and the press will row in behind cameron because hes seen as protecting their interests from interferring eurocrats (and he actually is) and the total disaray of the labour party the tories will probably scrape enough votes in an election to aust the lib dems and form a government free from the restrictions of coalition.. then he can revisit the european problem by that time the path that britain will take will become clearer and whether or not they should become re-involved or maintain a safe distance or indeed if anti european.. anti immigrant.. anti brussels feeling has continued to rise they could pull out altogether. as net contributors to european funding britains see themselves as propping up hitherto failed european states just so they can dump their 'flotsum and jetsum' on the social services and poach british jobs back to lower cost economies. a change is comming
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on December 11, 2011, 02:46:04 PM
Quote from: lawnseed on December 11, 2011, 02:43:37 PM
david cameron is playing a blinder. he knows there is strong opposition in britain to further european integration and gerneral disillusionment with the whole european project. the so called 'bulldog spirit' is alive and well on the streets of britain. on the other hand hes dependant on the 'namby pamby' pro-european lib dems to stay in power they will have to swallow what hes done and lose further credibility or break up the coalition forcing a gereral election. given the way 'the city' and the press will row in behind cameron because hes seen as protecting their interests from interferring eurocrats (and he actually is) and the total disaray of the labour party the tories will probably scrape enough votes in an election to aust the lib dems and form a government free from the restrictions of coalition.. then he can revisit the european problem by that time the path that britain will take will become clearer and whether or not they should become re-involved or maintain a safe distance or indeed if anti european.. anti immigrant.. anti brussels feeling has continued to rise they could pull out altogether. as net contributors to european funding britains see themselves as propping up hitherto failed european states just so they can dump their 'flotsum and jetsum' on the social services and poach british jobs back to lower cost economies. a change is comming

Tell me, are you in Sinn Féin's National Front wing long?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: lawnseed on December 11, 2011, 03:05:28 PM
Quote from: muppet on December 11, 2011, 02:46:04 PM
Quote from: lawnseed on December 11, 2011, 02:43:37 PM
david cameron is playing a blinder. he knows there is strong opposition in britain to further european integration and gerneral disillusionment with the whole european project. the so called 'bulldog spirit' is alive and well on the streets of britain. on the other hand hes dependant on the 'namby pamby' pro-european lib dems to stay in power they will have to swallow what hes done and lose further credibility or break up the coalition forcing a gereral election. given the way 'the city' and the press will row in behind cameron because hes seen as protecting their interests from interferring eurocrats (and he actually is) and the total disaray of the labour party the tories will probably scrape enough votes in an election to aust the lib dems and form a government free from the restrictions of coalition.. then he can revisit the european problem by that time the path that britain will take will become clearer and whether or not they should become re-involved or maintain a safe distance or indeed if anti european.. anti immigrant.. anti brussels feeling has continued to rise they could pull out altogether. as net contributors to european funding britains see themselves as propping up hitherto failed european states just so they can dump their 'flotsum and jetsum' on the social services and poach british jobs back to lower cost economies. a change is comming

Tell me, are you in Sinn Féin's National Front wing long?

theyre not very fussed on paddy either at the moment
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on December 11, 2011, 03:17:25 PM
With apologies to An Spailpín............

David's 26 friends all decided to go to the pub. The pub is called The Piston Broke. However David decided that it wasn't in his bank manager's interests for him to go, so he exercised his veto. Now David's 26 friends are all in The Piston Broke, his bank manager will be there shortly and he is at home wondering if he will have to pay for some of the drinks.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Rossfan on December 11, 2011, 04:08:22 PM
Sure the Brits main role in the EU was to push the US's interests .
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: bennydorano on December 11, 2011, 04:45:36 PM
Quote from: lawnseed on December 11, 2011, 02:43:37 PM
david cameron is playing a blinder. he knows there is strong opposition in britain to further european integration and gerneral disillusionment with the whole european project. the so called 'bulldog spirit' is alive and well on the streets of britain. on the other hand hes dependant on the 'namby pamby' pro-european lib dems to stay in power they will have to swallow what hes done and lose further credibility or break up the coalition forcing a gereral election. given the way 'the city' and the press will row in behind cameron because hes seen as protecting their interests from interferring eurocrats (and he actually is) and the total disaray of the labour party the tories will probably scrape enough votes in an election to aust the lib dems and form a government free from the restrictions of coalition.. then he can revisit the european problem by that time the path that britain will take will become clearer and whether or not they should become re-involved or maintain a safe distance or indeed if anti european.. anti immigrant.. anti brussels feeling has continued to rise they could pull out altogether. as net contributors to european funding britains see themselves as propping up hitherto failed european states just so they can dump their 'flotsum and jetsum' on the social services and poach british jobs back to lower cost economies. a change is comming

Bought the sunday times today to see their reaction (they've lurched so embarassingly to the right and in behind the tories that I've been giving it a miss lately), he certainly got no real plaudits from them, although the editorial was it's usual shite.

Personally speaking I no longer see the point of the European project, bar the benefits of having a free trade area I fail to see any other tangible benefits for the 'UK'.  (Cue a Monty Pythonesque list of what the Romans have done for us :) )
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: lawnseed on December 11, 2011, 05:35:34 PM
just watching the bbc news it seems near enough impossible to get any footage of david cameron without edna kenny lurking around behind him like stray dog ::)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: thejuice on December 14, 2011, 06:54:53 PM
Some creepy looking man on Bloomberg talking about the Irish and Euro economy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QhhveMreilw&feature=player_embedded

He's almost sitting on her lap.



Anyway he reckons we will say yes to a Euro referendum but by the sounds of it he'd rather we didn't have one.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: AQMP on December 15, 2011, 09:37:31 AM
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/dec/15/irish-voters-hobsons-choice-euro

Henry McDonald's take on any potential referendum issues facing Irish voters in the Guardian

The X Factor may be over in the UK for another year but a new contest has just started across the Irish Sea – The Fear Factor.

Michael Noonan, Ireland's finance minister, set the tone for the battle on RTÉ last night and it will be one shot through with the F-word.

Noonan warned that any new referendum on the outcome of last week's EU agreement (the one minus the Brits) would be centred on whether or not Ireland stays in the euro. Although the Fine Gael minister's remarks have provoked accusations from Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin that the government is engaged in early scaremongering, the tactic is a shrewd one.

The minister and the Fine Gael-Labour government know that a population worn down by austerity cuts in the last budget and still furious over the bailout of the country's hated banks might use any forthcoming referendum to punish the coalition.

In the event of a no vote the magnitude of the chaos across Europe would be far greater than when Ireland first rejected the Lisbon treaty. The stakes will not be higher when (it is no longer a question of If) the Irish go to the polls to ratify any new EU treaty coming out of last week's meeting in Brussels.

Given the serious crisis Ireland and the entire eurozone finds itself you can hardly blame Noonan and the rest of the cabinet for signalling that the next referendum will be a negative campaign.

In effect Irish voters will be faced with an economic/fiscal Hobson's choice: vote yes even if means a further dilution of sovereignty; vote no and you will probably end up junking your euro notes and coins for a currency pegged to sterling. The latter choice, the Dublin government will suggest, would mean essentially coming back under British influence 90 years after the state was founded following the Anglo-Irish treaty.

Framing the next referendum on Europe around the republic's continued presence in euro does indeed inject the fear factor into the campaign. Essentially it saying this to the Irish electorate: "In the 20th century you swapped one union, ie the connection with Britain, with another union, namely by joining the EU and becoming in fact one of the most passionately pro-European nations. By voting no you are in danger of reversing your history and sending the nation back into the arms of the British!"

In addition the government will point to the billions of euros the Europeans – principally the Germans – have pumped into the Irish economy, and ask if the country could continue to afford to pay its public servants and maintain its massive welfare bills it the Republic ejects itself from the new EU arrangements.

In short, Noonan's play on the Fear Factor is for real. It is admission of the real position Ireland finds itself in after the boom went bust – a nation that is vulnerable, dependant and weak vis-a-vis other more powerful EU states.

This may cause outrage and consternation about those of strong nationalist opinions in the Republic but the coalition will be hoping that a majority in Middle Ireland might hold their noses and vote yes on the new treaty because the alternative is even more unthinkable.


Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Evil Genius on December 15, 2011, 01:48:22 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on December 11, 2011, 04:08:22 PMSure the Brits main role in the EU was to push the US's interests .
I think you'll find that our main role in the EU has always been to push the UK's interests, actually.

Or do you imagine that President Obama was happy to hear of Cameron's walkout last week:
"After meeting European Council President Herman Van Rompuy and European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, President Obama said he was keen to see the eurozone crisis end."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8922122/Barack-Obama-says-US-willing-to-help-Europe-resolve-debt-crisis.html

I think your confusion may arise from the fact that unlike eg France (esp) and Germany, we in the UK have never taken a purely Euro-centric view of what constitutes our own self-interest.

On the contrary, we continue pay regard to events in all  parts of the world, especially those which were once our colonies...  ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Evil Genius on December 15, 2011, 01:57:33 PM
Quote from: AQMP on December 15, 2011, 09:37:31 AMIn effect Irish voters will be faced with an economic/fiscal Hobson's choice: vote yes even if means a further dilution of sovereignty; vote no and you will probably end up junking your euro notes and coins for a currency pegged to sterling. The latter choice, the Dublin government will suggest, would mean essentially coming back under British influence 90 years after the state was founded following the Anglo-Irish treaty.
Noonan's "softening-up" of the electorate in anticipation of a Referendum is particularly interesting in the light of this recent comment by Enda:
Mr Kenny, who spoke to Prime Minister David Cameron on Tuesday night, said that Britain was "very often our staunchest ally at the European table".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16181844

So if ROI should vote "No", dear old Britain will be your safety net, then, eh?

Hmmm. Do you think we'll get back our "Three Green Fields" in time for the 1916 Centenary, or might it be neater to wait until 2021 to unite Ireland?

Again.  :D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: AQMP on December 15, 2011, 02:01:00 PM
Quote from: Evil Genius on December 15, 2011, 01:57:33 PM
Quote from: AQMP on December 15, 2011, 09:37:31 AMIn effect Irish voters will be faced with an economic/fiscal Hobson's choice: vote yes even if means a further dilution of sovereignty; vote no and you will probably end up junking your euro notes and coins for a currency pegged to sterling. The latter choice, the Dublin government will suggest, would mean essentially coming back under British influence 90 years after the state was founded following the Anglo-Irish treaty.
Noonan's "softening-up" of the electorate in anticipation of a Referendum is particularly interesting in the light of this recent comment by Enda:
Mr Kenny, who spoke to Prime Minister David Cameron on Tuesday night, said that Britain was "very often our staunchest ally at the European table".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16181844

So if ROI should vote "No", dear old Britain will be your safety net, then, eh?

Hmmm. Do you think we'll get back our "Three Green Fields" in time for the 1916 Centenary, or might it be neater to wait until 2021, when we can finally end Partition in Ireland?  :D

I always knew the Nellie Dean's visit to the Garden of Remembrance was the thin end of the wedge! ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Evil Genius on December 15, 2011, 02:03:43 PM
Quote from: AQMP on December 15, 2011, 02:01:00 PM
Quote from: Evil Genius on December 15, 2011, 01:57:33 PM
Quote from: AQMP on December 15, 2011, 09:37:31 AMIn effect Irish voters will be faced with an economic/fiscal Hobson's choice: vote yes even if means a further dilution of sovereignty; vote no and you will probably end up junking your euro notes and coins for a currency pegged to sterling. The latter choice, the Dublin government will suggest, would mean essentially coming back under British influence 90 years after the state was founded following the Anglo-Irish treaty.
Noonan's "softening-up" of the electorate in anticipation of a Referendum is particularly interesting in the light of this recent comment by Enda:
Mr Kenny, who spoke to Prime Minister David Cameron on Tuesday night, said that Britain was "very often our staunchest ally at the European table".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16181844

So if ROI should vote "No", dear old Britain will be your safety net, then, eh?

Hmmm. Do you think we'll get back our "Three Green Fields" in time for the 1916 Centenary, or might it be neater to wait until 2021, when we can finally end Partition in Ireland?  :D

I always knew the Nellie Dean's visit to the Garden of Remembrance was the thin end of the wedge! ;)
Just think of it as "A viewing with the Estate Agent"... ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: NetNitrate on December 15, 2011, 02:20:43 PM
The smartest thing the Irish government could do now is promise a referendum and tell our masters in Europe, look this feckin thing will never pass unless ye write off our debts.

An even smarter thing might be to say to the masters, look a referendum is not necessary and will never happen, we won't allow it, carry on girls and lads with the new treaty and then at the last minute say, oh feck the bleddy AG says a referendum is now necessary. Angela, it will never pass in a million years unless of course ye write off our debts, never bring up our corporatation tax again, and given billions to jumpstart the economy and finish a few of those auld roads going nowhere.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Evil Genius on December 15, 2011, 03:28:59 PM
Quote from: NetNitrate on December 15, 2011, 02:20:43 PMThe smartest thing the Irish government could do now is promise a referendum and tell our masters in Europe, look this feckin thing will never pass unless ye write off our debts.

An even smarter thing might be to say to the masters, look a referendum is not necessary and will never happen, we won't allow it, carry on girls and lads with the new treaty and then at the last minute say, oh feck the bleddy AG says a referendum is now necessary. Angela, it will never pass in a million years unless of course ye write off our debts, never bring up our corporatation tax again, and given billions to jumpstart the economy and finish a few of those auld roads going nowhere.
It does not lie within the gift of the Government to promise/deny a Referendum - assuming the proposed Treaty turns out something like it promises to be, a Referendum will be a constitutional imperative.

In which case, a "No" vote would only complicate the Merkozy Plan, not scupper it. This is because France and Germany know they can always kick you (ROI) out of the EU if you prove more trouble than you're worth - and that will hurt you a great deal more than them.

In the end, it's like a big card game, with all the picture cards being held by the French and Germans. Worse, those two are passing signals beneath the table between themselves.

Meanwhile, you have a poor, though not quite hopeless, hand. Therefore if you start trying to lead the play (make excessive demands), then F & G will come down hard, since that is their  (self-appointed) role.

Far better for you to go on being a Good Little European, not creating any fuss whilst they control the game, in the hope that they'll let you pick up a trick or two (Corporation Tax?) when the last few cards are played.

Which means that  if/when* it becomes your turn to play your card (i.e. hold a Referendum), it had better be the right one.


* - Unless some other player plays their "No" card first.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: AZOffaly on December 15, 2011, 03:30:27 PM
Quote from: Evil Genius on December 15, 2011, 03:28:59 PM
Quote from: NetNitrate on December 15, 2011, 02:20:43 PMThe smartest thing the Irish government could do now is promise a referendum and tell our masters in Europe, look this feckin thing will never pass unless ye write off our debts.

An even smarter thing might be to say to the masters, look a referendum is not necessary and will never happen, we won't allow it, carry on girls and lads with the new treaty and then at the last minute say, oh feck the bleddy AG says a referendum is now necessary. Angela, it will never pass in a million years unless of course ye write off our debts, never bring up our corporatation tax again, and given billions to jumpstart the economy and finish a few of those auld roads going nowhere.
It does not lie within the gift of the Government to promise/deny a Referendum - assuming the proposed Treaty turns out something like it promises to be, a Referendum will be a constitutional imperative.

In which case, a "No" vote would only complicate the Merkozy Plan, not scupper it. This is because France and Germany know they can always kick ROI out of the EU if you (ROI) prove more trouble than you're worth and that will hurt you a great deal more than them.

In the end, it's like a big card game, with all the picture cards being held by the French and Germans. Worse, those two are passing signals beneath the table between themselves.

Meanwhile, you have a poor, though not quite hopeless, hand. Therefore if you start trying to lead the play (make excessive demands), then F & G will come down hard, since that is their  (self-appointed) role.

Far better for you to go on being a Good Little European, not creating any fuss whilst they control the game, in the hope that they'll let you pick up a trick or two (Corporation Tax?) when the last few cards are played.

How can anyone be 'kicked out' of the EU? I thought that was labelled as scare mongering.

Edit: This is about Greece, but I'm sure it applies to everyone.


From 'Foreign Policy' Magazine
Quote
But can Europe actually kick Greece out?


In a word, no. EU bylaws provide no mechanism for expelling a member state. Indeed, the EU's laws in spirit are integrative and unifying, "conciliatory" rather than "punitive." Therefore, in letter, they provide no option for kicking a country out, no matter how much other member countries might want to. Even if Greece invaded France -- and it would take as much for Brussels to contemplate expulsion -- the European Commission, a body of ministers that initiates EU laws, would have to craft new legislation to do it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Evil Genius on December 15, 2011, 03:49:35 PM
Quote from: AZOffaly on December 15, 2011, 03:30:27 PM
Quote from: Evil Genius on December 15, 2011, 03:28:59 PM
Quote from: NetNitrate on December 15, 2011, 02:20:43 PMThe smartest thing the Irish government could do now is promise a referendum and tell our masters in Europe, look this feckin thing will never pass unless ye write off our debts.

An even smarter thing might be to say to the masters, look a referendum is not necessary and will never happen, we won't allow it, carry on girls and lads with the new treaty and then at the last minute say, oh feck the bleddy AG says a referendum is now necessary. Angela, it will never pass in a million years unless of course ye write off our debts, never bring up our corporatation tax again, and given billions to jumpstart the economy and finish a few of those auld roads going nowhere.
It does not lie within the gift of the Government to promise/deny a Referendum - assuming the proposed Treaty turns out something like it promises to be, a Referendum will be a constitutional imperative.

In which case, a "No" vote would only complicate the Merkozy Plan, not scupper it. This is because France and Germany know they can always kick ROI out of the EU if you (ROI) prove more trouble than you're worth and that will hurt you a great deal more than them.

In the end, it's like a big card game, with all the picture cards being held by the French and Germans. Worse, those two are passing signals beneath the table between themselves.

Meanwhile, you have a poor, though not quite hopeless, hand. Therefore if you start trying to lead the play (make excessive demands), then F & G will come down hard, since that is their  (self-appointed) role.

Far better for you to go on being a Good Little European, not creating any fuss whilst they control the game, in the hope that they'll let you pick up a trick or two (Corporation Tax?) when the last few cards are played.

How can anyone be 'kicked out' of the EU? I thought that was labelled as scare mongering.
"Anyone" cannot be kicked out - at least not if you're France, Germany, Netherlands etc.

But I have no doubt that several of the smaller, more indebted, members could, should they start kicking up too much of a fuss. That was the lesson Greece had to learn when Papandreou started muttering about a Referendum, and explains why the Greek people accepted his ousting meekly enough i.e. they knew what would follow next, if they carried on causing trouble

And whilst ROI's stock within the EU is presently quite good, that is only because they continue to take their medicine quietly, and without fuss.

This is not like the Cold War, where each side knew that if he pressed the Red Button, the other could respond in kind. France and Germany know that the only nuclear missiles in the EU are pointing outwards  from their borders...
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Main Street on December 15, 2011, 03:59:16 PM
Quote from: Evil Genius on December 15, 2011, 03:49:35 PM
"Anyone" cannot be kicked out - at least not if you're France, Germany, Netherlands etc.

But I have no doubt that several of the smaller, more indebted, members could, should they start kicking up too much of a fuss. That was the lesson Greece had to learn when Papandreou started muttering about a Referendum, and explains why the Greek people accepted his ousting meekly enough i.e. they knew what would follow next, if they carried on causing trouble

Your analysis is simplistic. No country can be kicked out of the EU, but a country can have certain rights suspended.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Evil Genius on December 15, 2011, 03:59:27 PM
Quote from: AZOffaly on December 15, 2011, 03:30:27 PM
Edit: This is about Greece, but I'm sure it applies to everyone.


From 'Foreign Policy' Magazine
Quote
But can Europe actually kick Greece out?


In a word, no. EU bylaws provide no mechanism for expelling a member state. Indeed, the EU's laws in spirit are integrative and unifying, "conciliatory" rather than "punitive." Therefore, in letter, they provide no option for kicking a country out, no matter how much other member countries might want to. Even if Greece invaded France -- and it would take as much for Brussels to contemplate expulsion -- the European Commission, a body of ministers that initiates EU laws, would have to craft new legislation to do it.
Just noticed your Edit.

Just because EU bylaws presently provide no mechanism, that does not mean such a mechansim could not be devised.

As for the "spirit" of the EU's laws, believe me, when the new 26 Member Treaty gets passed in the next few months, it will contain a whole lot of punitive clauses etc which are anything but in the "EU Spirit", as originally envisaged.

Now I don't think it will actually come to expulsion, since the likely candidates know that they simply cannot afford to push the French and Germans too far.

But in any case, the leading nations know they could always do what eg the leading English football clubs did 20-odd years ago when they constantly found themselves outvoted and frustrated by the smaller, more numerous Football League clubs: leave the EU and form their own "European Premier Union"... 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Evil Genius on December 15, 2011, 04:03:55 PM
Quote from: Main Street on December 15, 2011, 03:59:16 PM
Quote from: Evil Genius on December 15, 2011, 03:49:35 PM
"Anyone" cannot be kicked out - at least not if you're France, Germany, Netherlands etc.

But I have no doubt that several of the smaller, more indebted, members could, should they start kicking up too much of a fuss. That was the lesson Greece had to learn when Papandreou started muttering about a Referendum, and explains why the Greek people accepted his ousting meekly enough i.e. they knew what would follow next, if they carried on causing trouble

Your analysis is simplistic. No country can be kicked out of the EU, but a country can have certain rights suspended.
And yours is naive.

Believe me, the Germans (esp) and French are in no mood for p1ssing about any longer - they can't afford to.

When the new 26 member Treaty is agreed, it will have such punitive clauses inserted, that whether a recalcitrant member is Expelled, or Resigns, or is slowly Squeezed to Death, the net outcome will be the same - as eg Silvio Berlusconi could testify!  :o
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: thejuice on December 15, 2011, 06:08:45 PM
An analogy of it seems to me that there are 26 people sitting in a house thats burning down. Among them is a man and a woman with guns who will shoot the first person to make a run for the door. The other 24 are all looking around at each other wondering who is feeling the heat the most, who is going to make a run for it. Because only the first one to run gets shot but no-one wants to be the first, but if someone doesn't run soon we're all going to get burnt alive, even Mr Camerons house next door will not escape the flames as his place is only semi-detached.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Main Street on December 15, 2011, 07:29:49 PM
Quote from: Evil Genius on December 15, 2011, 04:03:55 PM
Quote from: Main Street on December 15, 2011, 03:59:16 PM
Quote from: Evil Genius on December 15, 2011, 03:49:35 PM
"Anyone" cannot be kicked out - at least not if you're France, Germany, Netherlands etc.

But I have no doubt that several of the smaller, more indebted, members could, should they start kicking up too much of a fuss. That was the lesson Greece had to learn when Papandreou started muttering about a Referendum, and explains why the Greek people accepted his ousting meekly enough i.e. they knew what would follow next, if they carried on causing trouble

Your analysis is simplistic. No country can be kicked out of the EU, but a country can have certain rights suspended.
And yours is naive.

Believe me, the Germans (esp) and French are in no mood for p1ssing about any longer - they can't afford to.

When the new 26 member Treaty is agreed, it will have such punitive clauses inserted, that whether a recalcitrant member is Expelled, or Resigns, or is slowly Squeezed to Death, the net outcome will be the same - as eg Silvio Berlusconi could testify!  :o
I would rather trust in rationality than believe your surmises and beliefs ;D


Both France and Germany government want their respective country's private bank debts paid, otherwise  they have already exposed their own citizens to be the lender of last resort in the event of a default. Sad their citizens don't even understand this, they think they are bailing out the the straggler rogue countries.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Rossfan on December 15, 2011, 07:53:20 PM
Quote from: Main Street on December 15, 2011, 07:29:49 PM
Quote from: Evil Genius on December 15, 2011, 04:03:55 PM
Quote from: Main Street on December 15, 2011, 03:59:16 PM
Quote from: Evil Genius on December 15, 2011, 03:49:35 PM
"Anyone" cannot be kicked out - at least not if you're France, Germany, Netherlands etc.

But I have no doubt that several of the smaller, more indebted, members could, should they start kicking up too much of a fuss. That was the lesson Greece had to learn when Papandreou started muttering about a Referendum, and explains why the Greek people accepted his ousting meekly enough i.e. they knew what would follow next, if they carried on causing trouble

Your analysis is simplistic. No country can be kicked out of the EU, but a country can have certain rights suspended.
And yours is naive.

Believe me, the Germans (esp) and French are in no mood for p1ssing about any longer - they can't afford to.

When the new 26 member Treaty is agreed, it will have such punitive clauses inserted, that whether a recalcitrant member is Expelled, or Resigns, or is slowly Squeezed to Death, the net outcome will be the same - as eg Silvio Berlusconi could testify!  :o
I would rather trust in rationality than believe your surmises and beliefs ;D


Both France and Germany government want their respective country's private bank debts paid, otherwise  they have already exposed their own citizens to be the lender of last resort in the event of a default. Sad their citizens don't even understand this, they think they are bailing out the the straggler rogue countries.
Luckily they have you around to put them straight  ;D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Rossfan on December 16, 2011, 11:44:31 AM
Not when the alternative is spelled out for the voters.
Only 2 ways we'll be leaving the €
1 - it's  disbanded by agreement by the 17
2- the Germans/French fcuk us out for not paying their banks back what Quinn/Fingleton/Fitzpatrick and the other cnuts owe them.
Either of those will bring us back to the 1950s or the 1840s and no amount of tough talk from Internet warriors will change that.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: thejuice on December 16, 2011, 11:55:59 AM
Yes or No, we will be back there again anyway.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Declan on December 16, 2011, 04:44:18 PM
So hows that austerity working out?

Ireland's economy contracted by 1.9pc in the third quarter, far worse than expected, as global economic turmoil dented export growth, raising the stakes for its fiscal and debt targets under an EU-IMF bailout.
Reuters1:30PM GMT 16 Dec 2011
Ireland was the worst performing economy in the eurozone in the third quarter apart from Greece, which no longer publishes seasonally adjusted figures, marking a stunning reversal of fortune from the second quarter, when it was the second-best in class after Estonia, official data on Friday showed.
Ireland's quarterly GDP data are notoriously volatile due to the inclusion of the earnings of Irish-based multinationals, and analysts said the country should achieve full-year GDP growth this year, the first since 2007, but below the 1pc forecast by the government.
"It [GDP] is probably below the 1pc this year," said Austin Hughes, chief economist at KBC Bank. "In terms of next year it just emphasises the difficulty we have."
The contraction in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on a seasonally adjusted basis was far worse than forecasts of a 0.5pc fall by seven economists polled by Reuters.
Held up as a role model for other indebted eurozone nations, deteriorating prospects for Irish growth threaten to undermine its efforts to become the first country to emerge from an EU-IMF bailout in 2013.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel had recently praised Ireland as a "superb example" of how a country can work its way out of a debt crisis, as Dublin implements spending cuts and tax rises under its bailout programme.
"Ireland's third-quarter GDP figures rather spoil its emerging image as a 'poster boy' for other debt-laden peripheral euro-zone economies," said Jonathan Loynes, chief European economist at the Capital Economics consultancy.
"Of course, it would be wrong to read too much into one quarter's figures. The Irish data are notoriously volatile and the third-quarter's drop in GDP reverses little more than half of the growth seen in in the first half.
"Nonetheless, the figures still put something of a dent in hopes that Ireland was starting to reap the rewards of its economic reforms and austerity measures. With borrowing costs way higher than those of Italy, Ireland's future prospects within the single currency are far from secure."
Ireland's international lenders have warned that growth could deteriorate in the months ahead if Ireland's main trading partners slide into recession.
Gross National Product (GNP) - seen by some economists as a more accurate indicator of the state of the economy because it strips out the earnings of Irish-based multinationals - was down 2.2pc in July to September, disappointing expectations for a flat performance.
The data show exports are struggling to compensate for a domestic economy still stuck in the doldrums due to an unprecedented housing crash and prolonged austerity measures, including €3.8bn of fiscal adjustment in its budget earlier this month.
Ireland's current account surplus came in at €850m compared with a surplus of €1.18bn in the same period last year.
Second quarter GDP growth was revised to 1.4pc from 1.6pc previously.
Ireland this month cut its GDP growth forecast for 2012 to 1.3pc from 1.6pc, the second downgrade in a month, in line with 11 economists polled by Reuters at the start of the month
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Main Street on December 16, 2011, 05:11:56 PM
The peak of Irish life quality in the South was in the years before we joined the EU in 1973.
Then we had what passes for full employment,  5% unemployed.
Because we didn't buy stuff that wasn't yet invented, we didn't need money.
A years salary could get you a basic place to live.
The VW Beetle could go around the clock a few times, you only had to put in petrol and service it.
Hospital wards had plenty of vacant beds  - maybe sick people died faster.
LPs
3rd level was free and 4 honours in the leaving cert got you a grant.


The economy only really boomed when free market regulations were lifted on the finance sector in the late 1990's, now look what that has turned into.








Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Rossfan on December 16, 2011, 05:41:32 PM
Quote from: Main Street on December 16, 2011, 05:11:56 PM
The peak of Irish life quality in the South was in the years before we joined the EU in 1973.
Then we had what passes for full employment,  5% unemployed.
3rd level was free and 4 honours in the leaving cert got you a grant.


That will be news to a lot of folk.
Unemployment was low because the dole was very low and half the West was still heading for Holyhead.
3rd level became free in the 1990's as Labour wanted to look after its smoked salmon Mary Robinson type new voters.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Main Street on December 16, 2011, 06:05:34 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on December 16, 2011, 05:41:32 PM
Quote from: Main Street on December 16, 2011, 05:11:56 PM
The peak of Irish life quality in the South was in the years before we joined the EU in 1973.
Then we had what passes for full employment,  5% unemployed.
3rd level was free and 4 honours in the leaving cert got you a grant.


That will be news to a lot of folk.

3rd level became free in the 1990's as Labour wanted to look after its smoked salmon Mary Robinson type new voters.
AFAIR,  3rd level education in 1972/73,  if not free - at least it was dirt cheap.

Maybe the fees  rose after entry to the EU :)  and rose higher and higher until the fees were scrapped a few decades later

QuoteUnemployment was low because the dole was very low and half the West was still heading for Holyhead.

Is it my new task on this board to correct the flow of nonsense from you :)

Please do some research and base what you write, on your research.

'Over 500,000 people left independent Ireland between 1945 and 1960—stark evidence of the poor state of the Irish economy at this time. The following decade saw reduced emigration, a significant decrease that, together with substantial return migration in the 1960s, contributed to a rise in the population of independent Ireland by 1971—reversing the downward trend since the late 1840s. In the 1970s the numbers immigrating remained, for a sustained period, higher than the numbers leaving. This inflow was due mainly to the return home of emigrants who had left in the 1940s and 1950s'.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on December 16, 2011, 06:13:33 PM
Quote from: Main Street on December 16, 2011, 06:05:34 PM
Maybe the fees  rose after entry to the EU :)  and rose higher and higher until the fees were scrapped a few decades later

If they did it wasn't because of the EU as the UK was free at the time.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on December 16, 2011, 06:25:21 PM
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/12/16/804161/fitch-big-euro-fix-technically-and-politically-beyond-reach/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter (http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/12/16/804161/fitch-big-euro-fix-technically-and-politically-beyond-reach/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter)

Fitch: "Following the EU Summit on 9-10 December, Fitch has concluded that a 'comprehensive solution' to the eurozone crisis is technically and politically beyond reach..."
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: Rossfan on December 16, 2011, 07:19:51 PM
Quote from: Main Street on December 16, 2011, 06:05:34 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on December 16, 2011, 05:41:32 PM
Quote from: Main Street on December 16, 2011, 05:11:56 PM
The peak of Irish life quality in the South was in the years before we joined the EU in 1973.
Then we had what passes for full employment,  5% unemployed.
3rd level was free and 4 honours in the leaving cert got you a grant.


That will be news to a lot of folk.

3rd level became free in the 1990's as Labour wanted to look after its smoked salmon Mary Robinson type new voters.
AFAIR,  3rd level education in 1972/73,  if not free - at least it was dirt cheap.

Maybe the fees  rose after entry to the EU :)  and rose higher and higher until the fees were scrapped a few decades later

QuoteUnemployment was low because the dole was very low and half the West was still heading for Holyhead.

Is it my new task on this board to correct the flow of nonsense from you :)

Please do some research and base what you write, on your research.

'Over 500,000 people left independent Ireland between 1945 and 1960—stark evidence of the poor state of the Irish economy at this time. The following decade saw reduced emigration, a significant decrease that, together with substantial return migration in the 1960s, contributed to a rise in the population of independent Ireland by 1971—reversing the downward trend since the late 1840s. In the 1970s the numbers immigrating remained, for a sustained period, higher than the numbers leaving. This inflow was due mainly to the return home of emigrants who had left in the 1940s and 1950s'.

You stick to your Internet -- I know that every house around where I grew up had people who left for Holyhead all through the 60s and early 70s.

It stopped for a few years mid 70s but back in full flow from 83 on  for 9 or 10 years - including my good self for a short spell.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on December 16, 2011, 08:44:07 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1216/eurozone.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1216/eurozone.html)

Them EU negotiations sure are odd. Last week 26 countries came to an agreement. Today the first draft of the 'agreement' has been completed. Personally I have never agreed anything until I have seen the last draft.

Noonan may have caused the predictable hand-wringing here with his referendum talk, but whoever is writing these drafts will have heard it loud and clear. Hopefully! Because paying over 8% interest rate on the Anglo bailout is scandalous. How the f**k do Fianna Fáil TDs from the last Government even show their faces?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: ludermor on December 19, 2011, 04:10:35 PM
Quote from: seafoid on December 02, 2011, 09:53:02 AM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on December 01, 2011, 06:27:41 PM
Quote from: seafoid on December 01, 2011, 12:41:17 PM
Quote from: AZOffaly on December 01, 2011, 11:10:51 AM
What would ye think of buying gold with any savings you might have? Safe? Crazy? Obviously I'd discuss with a Financial Advisor, but just wondering if anyone else has gone down this way, especially if you have a few bob in a savings account? If the Euro collapses, and we revert to a devalued Punt, I don't want to be left with stuff that can only be used as toilet paper.

How about buying Yen, or Dollars, or even Sterling?

Gold is very volatile at the moment. The Euro probably won't break up. It would destroy the global economy for at least 5 years.
Even the 1% don't want that.

If enough people thought that the Euro was unsafe and pulled their money out of the banks the currency would collapse. The job of the authorities is to make sure this doesn't happen.   It all depends on confidence.

The volatilty of Gold as it stands should not be a major worry IMO. While it is the finite element that it is, it will always retain value (as it has done for thousands of years). Silver should be considered also (precious for use in industry also).

With the central banks around the world now consigned to printing money, debt and fiat currency could well be on an exponential curve (e.g. by the time you know the currency is about to fatally debased, its too late):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8WBiTnBwSWc

The above is a fascinating presentation on the economy, energy and environmental challenges of the coming 20 years. Doesn't look good for us.

Fiat currency is backed by nothing and throughout history has been shown to be anything but sacred. Why couldn't the dollar or euro become worthless at some point in the future with our politicians as short-sighted and divided as they are (in europe at least)?

In my opinion, one of the ways to protect yourself in the coming years (if you have savings) would be to secure your energy requirements or lack thereof. Never pay any heed to broad brush verdict on micro renewables for example, they depend entirely on your circumstances.

We have a micro hydro generator installed on a piece of land for example and it is turning out to be a great investment (the house is totally off-grid for several thousand quid of capital and you earn a tariff for everything you generate, moreso if it goes back into the grid)

Putting yourself and your family in the position of being as self-sustainable as is practible in terms of energy and food requirements is not a bad move, sure even if everything turns out grand with the economy you are adding to the value of your land/property.

Invest in self-sustainability if you can or precious metals if you can.

the gold price hit a record in 1980 . When gordon Brown sold the Uk's gold around 10 years ago the price was 30% or so of what it had been in 1980.
It's like any asset. The price you buy in at is crucial.   
http://www.independent.ie/business/stocks-markets/gold-will-keep-falling-to-below-1500-an-ounce-2967360.html    GOLD prices will fall below $1,500 (e1,150) an ounce over the next three months and are unlikely to re-test September's all-time highs until later in 2012 at the earliest, according to a Reuters poll of 20 hedge-fund managers, economists and traders.

The bleak forecast, coming after gold lost 11pc of its value so far this month, is likely to fuel fears that bullion is close to ending its more than decade-long bull run and entering a bear market.

Almost half of respondents predicted bullion would fall to $1,450 an ounce in the first quarter next year, with three seeing prices as low as $1,400 an ounce.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on December 19, 2011, 04:39:05 PM
Until they start rationing booze in this country we'll never raise a whimper

Gene Kerrigan: Austerity doesn't work? No problem...
Destroying Ireland to save the banks, so the banks can save the country isn't working, writes Gene Kerrigan
Sunday December 18 2011
It was a hellish year. Very little to remember fondly. Not a year we need to dwell upon. Yet, with the new year promising to be even more grim, are there lessons we might usefully remember from 2011? And what might those lessons be?

We learned, for instance, that things will be fine if we stay the course. As 2011 began, President McAleese told us she was keeping an eye out for those "green shoots of new beginnings". Later in the year, a young and rested 60, Mary headed off into the sunset, with a pension three times the salary of the average software developer.

The departing Cowen regime whooped that we were "on the road to economic recovery". Ministers of that government then retired in droves, while still relatively young, to spend more time with their vast pensions.

We learned, in short, that those who are loudest in their optimism about the current course of austerity are usually those with well-feathered nests.

We learned conclusively that the Cowen/Lenihan austerity strategy, now being implemented by Kenny/Noonan, doesn't work. This ordains that we have to destroy the country in order to save the banks, so that the banks can save the country. So, under ECB instructions, we've been feeding the bankers tens of billions; and seeking vainly to balance the books by cutting services and asset-stripping the citizens. The insane strategy of deflating an already damaged economy smothered any chance of growth. The economy contracted. Unemployment rose relentlessly.

The argument between austerity (focused on reducing deficits) and stimulus (focused on protecting jobs) has been settled. Over the past four years, austerity has turned a crisis into a catastrophe.

One of the most important lessons we learned in 2011 was this: it doesn't matter that the austerity strategy doesn't work. The Economic War Against Ourselves has the approval of the EU, the ECB, the IMF, Fine Gael, Labour, Fianna Fail and The Irish Times. This makes the strategy unimpeachably respectable and perpetually untouchable, despite its blatant failure.

You may notice that Fine Gael, Labour, Fianna Fail and The Irish Times are precisely those who cheered on the property bubble. You may notice that the EU, the ECB and the IMF benignly observed the insane gambles by German, French, UK and Irish bankers that fuelled that bubble. Among the people who matter, being repeatedly, disastrously wrong has no bad consequences.

People who oppose austerity policies are "politically motivated". The incompetent, overpaid elites who blunder onward are, on the other hand, "realists". With no political thought but peace and goodwill to all.

We learned, from the lips of ministers, that Kenny and Noonan "renegotiated" downward the profiteering interest rate we were charged for EU/IMF loans. This is simply untrue. But they continue to say it, every time they need a morale boost. Which is often.

We learned that Tim Geithner, Barack Obama's top economics guy, vetoed any suggestion that the Irish Government might demand that bank bondholders pay some of their own gambling debts.

Some weeks later, face to face with Obama, Enda Kenny chickened out of raising that matter. Face to face with Geithner, Michael Noonan also chickened out. We learned, in short, that Irish politicians are tough when they're taking money away from blind people.

We learned that politicians can be courageous and move swiftly when something matters to them. When the rules said that Richard Bruton's adviser, Ciaran Conlon, couldn't be paid more than €92,000, Bruton's boss Enda Kenny used his authority to set aside the rules and give his old mate a €35,000 rise. And then Kevin Cardiff, top lad in Finance, was rejected for a job by an EU committee. Kevin is remembered for his role in the bank guarantee, and was in charge of Finance during the €3.6bn accounting error. Politicians swarmed to his aid. Kevin was lifted into his EU job. He will get €260,000 for a job he has described as a "doddle".

We learned that democracy is dispensable. At election time, we're told to be grateful for the sacrifices that gave us the ballot. People living under dictators put their lives on the line to achieve the right to vote -- and we rightly honour them.

We learned after last February's General Election that a mandate for change is without value, when the elite collude. Promises of change are without meaning. The right to vote becomes a child's game, a trivialising simulation of democracy.

When democratically elected politicians in Italy and Greece balked at taking instructions from the ECB they were replaced by people who never received a single vote. Their successors (bankers) were chosen by unelected but extremely powerful functionaries within the ECB (bankers).

We learned that a strike of capital is not worthy of comment by politicians, academics and the austerity pundits. If bin-men withheld their labour because of an insufficient return there would be screams of "holding the country to ransom at a time of national crisis". When capital conducts an investment strike, in demand for higher returns, the otherwise garrulous have nothing to say. They instead obsess ("Crokeparkdeal!Crokeparkdeal!Crokeparkdeal!") about a minor impediment to the asset stripping.

We learned that some people can state something and then state the opposite, and retain credibility with the media. For instance, a year ago Michael Noonan fiercely condemned the FF/Green regime for throwing away tens of billions by generously paying the gambling debts of Irish, German and French bankers.

When he became minister, less than three months later, he seamlessly continued the FF/Green strategy he had denounced. This was not hypocrisy. When Noonan condemned the squandering of billions he was playing the role of a tough, angry opposition politician.

Today, Noonan has another role. He plays a shrewd, worldly-wise Minister for Finance. It's all pose, by a superb actor, but he convinces many now as he convinced many a year ago.

We learned over the past couple of weeks that it is imperative that we put the EU's "fiscal responsibility" measures into our Constitution. Noonan says we must pass such a referendum whatever the wording, or we'll be voting ourselves out of the euro. We will be no longer "at the heart of Europe" (you'll remember how voting Yes to Lisbon 2 ensured our presence within the cockles of Frau Merkel's heart?).

Some people fear that Germany wants to take control of our budgets, perhaps our economy. I don't think that's true. Something far bigger is happening.

For 30 years, a brash form of casino capitalism reigned. The old conservative capitalism (welfare state, effective regulation) had lost the argument (and anything to the left of that was old hat). Casino capitalism (markets rule, deregulate, privatise) consequently ran up trillions in debt and ruined whole countries.

Even after the failures of the past four years, with the euro collapsing, the fiscal hawks remain immovable (deficits matter, not jobs -- banks matter, not people). They want to make any further argument unconstitutional. It's a more sophisticated form of the Tea Party movement in the US, that's smothering economic recovery with "debt ceiling" laws.

Amid the ruins they have made, they hold up constitutional handcuffs and they say, "trust us".

And a happy Christmas to you, too.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on December 20, 2011, 07:05:07 PM
There seem to be rumours of a new currency being formed between the UK and Ireland. The new currency will be basically a merger of Sterling and the old Punt. It will be called the Stunt. There will be 100 pants in a Stunt. Citizens in both countries will be encouraged to put all their pants in the banks to improve stability and to increase the number of stunts available to the banks. Both countries are pinning their hopes on the Stunt and hope that it will restore confidence.

If the Stunt proves a success there are plans to merge both countries. The new country will be called Iruk. Britain will join the new entity on the condition that they do not participate in any way. Ireland will join on the condition that it is frequently praised for being a good Iruker, even if it bankrupts the place.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on December 20, 2011, 07:22:21 PM
More seriously: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPcWHBPYOSU&feature=share (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPcWHBPYOSU&feature=share)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Lone Shark on December 21, 2011, 06:28:39 AM
Quote from: Declan on December 19, 2011, 04:39:05 PM
Until they start rationing booze in this country we'll never raise a whimper

Gene Kerrigan: Austerity doesn't work? No problem...
Destroying Ireland to save the banks, so the banks can save the country isn't working, writes Gene Kerrigan
Sunday December 18 2011
It was a hellish year. Very little to remember fondly. Not a year we need to dwell upon. Yet, with the new year promising to be even more grim, are there lessons we might usefully remember from 2011? And what might those lessons be?

We learned, for instance, that things will be fine if we stay the course. As 2011 began, President McAleese told us she was keeping an eye out for those "green shoots of new beginnings". Later in the year, a young and rested 60, Mary headed off into the sunset, with a pension three times the salary of the average software developer.

The departing Cowen regime whooped that we were "on the road to economic recovery". Ministers of that government then retired in droves, while still relatively young, to spend more time with their vast pensions.

We learned, in short, that those who are loudest in their optimism about the current course of austerity are usually those with well-feathered nests.

We learned conclusively that the Cowen/Lenihan austerity strategy, now being implemented by Kenny/Noonan, doesn't work. This ordains that we have to destroy the country in order to save the banks, so that the banks can save the country. So, under ECB instructions, we've been feeding the bankers tens of billions; and seeking vainly to balance the books by cutting services and asset-stripping the citizens. The insane strategy of deflating an already damaged economy smothered any chance of growth. The economy contracted. Unemployment rose relentlessly.

The argument between austerity (focused on reducing deficits) and stimulus (focused on protecting jobs) has been settled. Over the past four years, austerity has turned a crisis into a catastrophe.

One of the most important lessons we learned in 2011 was this: it doesn't matter that the austerity strategy doesn't work. The Economic War Against Ourselves has the approval of the EU, the ECB, the IMF, Fine Gael, Labour, Fianna Fail and The Irish Times. This makes the strategy unimpeachably respectable and perpetually untouchable, despite its blatant failure.

You may notice that Fine Gael, Labour, Fianna Fail and The Irish Times are precisely those who cheered on the property bubble. You may notice that the EU, the ECB and the IMF benignly observed the insane gambles by German, French, UK and Irish bankers that fuelled that bubble. Among the people who matter, being repeatedly, disastrously wrong has no bad consequences.

People who oppose austerity policies are "politically motivated". The incompetent, overpaid elites who blunder onward are, on the other hand, "realists". With no political thought but peace and goodwill to all.

We learned, from the lips of ministers, that Kenny and Noonan "renegotiated" downward the profiteering interest rate we were charged for EU/IMF loans. This is simply untrue. But they continue to say it, every time they need a morale boost. Which is often.

We learned that Tim Geithner, Barack Obama's top economics guy, vetoed any suggestion that the Irish Government might demand that bank bondholders pay some of their own gambling debts.

Some weeks later, face to face with Obama, Enda Kenny chickened out of raising that matter. Face to face with Geithner, Michael Noonan also chickened out. We learned, in short, that Irish politicians are tough when they're taking money away from blind people.

We learned that politicians can be courageous and move swiftly when something matters to them. When the rules said that Richard Bruton's adviser, Ciaran Conlon, couldn't be paid more than €92,000, Bruton's boss Enda Kenny used his authority to set aside the rules and give his old mate a €35,000 rise. And then Kevin Cardiff, top lad in Finance, was rejected for a job by an EU committee. Kevin is remembered for his role in the bank guarantee, and was in charge of Finance during the €3.6bn accounting error. Politicians swarmed to his aid. Kevin was lifted into his EU job. He will get €260,000 for a job he has described as a "doddle".

We learned that democracy is dispensable. At election time, we're told to be grateful for the sacrifices that gave us the ballot. People living under dictators put their lives on the line to achieve the right to vote -- and we rightly honour them.

We learned after last February's General Election that a mandate for change is without value, when the elite collude. Promises of change are without meaning. The right to vote becomes a child's game, a trivialising simulation of democracy.

When democratically elected politicians in Italy and Greece balked at taking instructions from the ECB they were replaced by people who never received a single vote. Their successors (bankers) were chosen by unelected but extremely powerful functionaries within the ECB (bankers).

We learned that a strike of capital is not worthy of comment by politicians, academics and the austerity pundits. If bin-men withheld their labour because of an insufficient return there would be screams of "holding the country to ransom at a time of national crisis". When capital conducts an investment strike, in demand for higher returns, the otherwise garrulous have nothing to say. They instead obsess ("Crokeparkdeal!Crokeparkdeal!Crokeparkdeal!") about a minor impediment to the asset stripping.

We learned that some people can state something and then state the opposite, and retain credibility with the media. For instance, a year ago Michael Noonan fiercely condemned the FF/Green regime for throwing away tens of billions by generously paying the gambling debts of Irish, German and French bankers.

When he became minister, less than three months later, he seamlessly continued the FF/Green strategy he had denounced. This was not hypocrisy. When Noonan condemned the squandering of billions he was playing the role of a tough, angry opposition politician.

Today, Noonan has another role. He plays a shrewd, worldly-wise Minister for Finance. It's all pose, by a superb actor, but he convinces many now as he convinced many a year ago.

We learned over the past couple of weeks that it is imperative that we put the EU's "fiscal responsibility" measures into our Constitution. Noonan says we must pass such a referendum whatever the wording, or we'll be voting ourselves out of the euro. We will be no longer "at the heart of Europe" (you'll remember how voting Yes to Lisbon 2 ensured our presence within the cockles of Frau Merkel's heart?).

Some people fear that Germany wants to take control of our budgets, perhaps our economy. I don't think that's true. Something far bigger is happening.

For 30 years, a brash form of casino capitalism reigned. The old conservative capitalism (welfare state, effective regulation) had lost the argument (and anything to the left of that was old hat). Casino capitalism (markets rule, deregulate, privatise) consequently ran up trillions in debt and ruined whole countries.

Even after the failures of the past four years, with the euro collapsing, the fiscal hawks remain immovable (deficits matter, not jobs -- banks matter, not people). They want to make any further argument unconstitutional. It's a more sophisticated form of the Tea Party movement in the US, that's smothering economic recovery with "debt ceiling" laws.

Amid the ruins they have made, they hold up constitutional handcuffs and they say, "trust us".

And a happy Christmas to you, too.


While I appreciate that Kerrigan may think he's standing up for the little guy here, this is muck of the highest order. He's right in that the existing capitalist structure failed, mainly because we did what we always do - we applied it half the time. You can have free, unfettered capitalism, as long as you allow big business to fail. Just as I would say to politicians, there is nothing at all wrong with stimulating a recessionary economy by practicing counter-cyclical fiscal policy, however you can't just pick and choose that approach when you're in a recession. You also need to practice it during the boom, and nobody wanted to hear about 20m budget surpluses in the boom. The ridiculous thing is that nobody would want to hear of it if we do reach another one either.


As a self employed individual who is working for a lot less money than I did in 2008, can I simply decide that "austerity doesn't work?". Of course not. I can spend all my money by August if I want, but then winter will come in and I'm going to need money for light, heat, food, electricity, you know, living. At that point, when I'm going to other people looking for money just to live, then they're going to want to know that I can pay it back. And telling them that I'm not interested in austerity and that I plan to be broke by August again next year hardly inspires that faith.

Saving the banks in the fashion that we did was stupid. However it's done now, and while we should be putting a lot more effort into making sure that the various culprits hang from tall trees.

If you want to suggest that austerity doesn't work, then fine. But this is the Troika's way, and if you want to tell them that you're going to keep living the high life, then you sure as hell better have a plan B. You'll forgive me for be somewhat skeptical about the existence of such a plan in Mr Kerrigan's locker. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on December 21, 2011, 12:09:39 PM
QuoteYou can have free, unfettered capitalism, as long as you allow big business to fail.

This is exactly where it went wrong. We took on private bank debts instead of allowing them to fail, or at least some of it to fail. Imagine if Lenihan had said to jobholders that night 'you get 60c in the €, guaranteed, as long as you sign a full & final settlement within 5 days, anyone who doesn't gets nothing'.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: lawnseed on December 21, 2011, 01:10:43 PM
Quote from: muppet on December 20, 2011, 07:05:07 PM
There seem to be rumours of a new currency being formed between the UK and Ireland. The new currency will be basically a merger of Sterling and the old Punt. It will be called the Stunt. There will be 100 pants in a Stunt. Citizens in both countries will be encouraged to put all their pants in the banks to improve stability and to increase the number of stunts available to the banks. Both countries are pinning their hopes on the Stunt and hope that it will restore confidence.

If the Stunt proves a success there are plans to merge both countries. The new country will be called Iruk. Britain will join the new entity on the condition that they do not participate in any way. Ireland will join on the condition that it is frequently praised for being a good Iruker, even if it bankrupts the place.
:D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: thejuice on December 21, 2011, 02:10:22 PM
well some good news that our exports had record highs this year. Nice bit of news among all the bad.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: saffron sam2 on December 21, 2011, 05:55:00 PM
Quote from: thejuice on December 21, 2011, 02:10:22 PM
well some good news that our exports had record highs this year. Nice bit of news among all the bad.

Yes, but most of those exports left because they couldn't get a job at home.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on January 04, 2012, 06:51:04 PM
Is it any wonder the banks are screwed:

http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0104/ecb-business.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0104/ecb-business.html)

Banks' deposits with the European Central Bank have hit a new record high, data showed today, suggesting that lenders remain reluctant to lend to each other amid ongoing market tension.
Banks put €453.18 billion on deposit at the ECB for 24 hours yesterday, breaking a previous record set last week for the facility of €452.03 billion, the central bank said.
Rising levels of deposits at the ECB are seen as a sign of market tension since the money deposited earns an interest rate of 0.25%, much less than the rate available on the interbank market. Heavy use of the facility suggests banks favour parking the money at low interest with the ECB rather than lending it to each other.
Analysts said the new record was due to banks opting to hoard their excess funds at the ECB after borrowing under its new three-year lending facility.
The ECB agreed last month to loan a record €489.2 billion to 532 banks in a three-year refinancing operation in a bid to avert a possible credit crunch.


This money is put on deposit for an annualized rate of 0.25%.

But a significant number of banks are borrowing from the ECB under the new 3 year lending programme at 1.75%.

It doesn't take a genius to figure out that borrowing (in desperation) at 1.75% and making 0.25% won't last long.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on January 09, 2012, 01:14:11 PM
http://politico.ie/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=8189&Itemid=882&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Politicoie+%28Latest+from+Politico.ie%29 (http://politico.ie/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=8189&Itemid=882&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Politicoie+%28Latest+from+Politico.ie%29)

Vincent Browne talking about the deal that just won't go away, The Maple 10.

The most pertinent points are:

Drumm said: "The Financial Regulator and the Central Bank were in every meeting with me and other directors of the bank throughout 2008."

Referring to that transaction, he said: "That was the solution to a problem, which went to the very destruction of the Irish financial system and hence the government, and through its offices, through the Central Bank and through the regulator, they were pushing the bank like hell to fix the problem."


And:

Drumm was asked, who, in addition to the Financial Regulator at the time, knew about what was going on. He replied: "John Hurley was the governor of the Central Bank. I spent a huge amount of time with John. He told me that he was reporting daily to the Minister for Finance [Brian Cowen]."

He elaborated: "They called me day after day after day, to find out how it was going and when we called them up and said we are thinking of doing something with private investors, I then went down and sat with them and explained what we were going to do. 'Let's get this done.' Frankly they were thrilled, chirpy, because the fear factor [of a financial collapse] was just huge."


If the above were true it would mean that the Irish government approved the manipulation and deception of the markets. Just like Greece.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: supersarsfields on January 09, 2012, 01:36:05 PM
Ummmm lending money to prop up share prices.

Rings a bell.

In all honestly Muppet as I know you keep a close look at this and the bail out in general what would be your gut feeling about this? ( I know my interest is mostly on the SQ aspect but leaving that to an aside).
Do you believe Drumm regarding the fact that the gov not only knew about the deal but were actively involved in it and therefore involved in the deception of the markets? Or would you believe that Drumm is just trying to limit his liability?

Just out of interest as I know there is alot of information and misinformation flying around regarding this so would be interested to hear which side you believe is more likely? Obviously no one can say for definite at this stage so just your gut instinst?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Denn Forever on January 09, 2012, 01:39:22 PM
For those who don't know (me), who is this Drumm guy?  Double jobing in the HSE?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on January 09, 2012, 01:51:31 PM
Quote from: supersarsfields on January 09, 2012, 01:36:05 PM
Ummmm lending money to prop up share prices.

Rings a bell.

In all honestly Muppet as I know you keep a close look at this and the bail out in general what would be your gut feeling about this? ( I know my interest is mostly on the SQ aspect but leaving that to an aside).
Do you believe Drumm regarding the fact that the gov not only knew about the deal but were actively involved in it and therefore involved in the deception of the markets? Or would you believe that Drumm is just trying to limit his liability?

Just out of interest as I know there is alot of information and misinformation flying around regarding this so would be interested to hear which side you believe is more likely? Obviously no one can say for definite at this stage so just your gut instinst?

1) David Drumm formerly of Anglo (not Professor Drumm of the HSE) is not the only person saying this type of thing, there are others such as Denis Casey formerly of IL&P (http://www.independent.ie/national-news/finance-denies-it-knew-of-83647bn-loan-to-anglo-2212421.html) who has sworn under oath that the regulator knew of the €7bn loans from IL&P to Anglo.
2) There is no way any bank on the planet post-Lehmans would have lent €7bn to Anglo-Irish bank without some very important people either pressurizing them to do so, or guaranteeing the money in some way. It could easily be argued that this was another deception of the markets and either IL&P were incredibly reckless in doing so, or a higher power gave the nod.
3) There is obviously a reason why Drumm, Fitzpatrick and co are not in jail. My guess is that they would bring some very important people with them. Cowen & Lenihan were dispensable as we have seen. Kenny and in particular the abrasive Noonan appear to be unable to do anything about it which suggest the real power is elsewhere, probably in the Department of Finance. Remember Kevin Cardiff was in the Department throughout the crisis, Cowen & FF were dispensable but it appears Cardiff wasn't (http://finance.gov.ie/viewdoc.asp?DocID=6161).
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: whiskeysteve on January 09, 2012, 03:03:58 PM
Chief economist of Citigroup to tell RTE that Ireland requires a 2nd bailout according to Bryan Dobson on the tweet machine.

'@bryansixone: Chief economist of Citi tells RTE News that Ireland will need a 2nd bailout. More from David Murphy on 6-1 New'

Back to the markets by 2013 lol
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: seafoid on January 09, 2012, 03:49:31 PM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on January 09, 2012, 03:03:58 PM
Chief economist of Citigroup to tell RTE that Ireland requires a 2nd bailout according to Bryan Dobson on the tweet machine.

'@bryansixone: Chief economist of Citi tells RTE News that Ireland will need a 2nd bailout. More from David Murphy on 6-1 New'

Back to the markets by 2013 lol

Jeff Madrick on Ireland

http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2012/jan/06/europe-cutting-hope/

"And then there is Ireland. The recent experience of this once booming country should be deeply embarrassing to those who advocate austerity economics. For six months early last year, its national income started growing again after a couple of years of dramatic collapse following its own financial crisis. Ireland guaranteed all the debt of its over-aggressive failing banks to appease investors and then paid for it by cutting social spending sharply. Ireland's leaders said with almost religious authority that this painful self-discipline was necessary to right the economy, and officials in Ireland and across Europe hailed the country's brief rebound in 2011 as proof that it works. But then the Irish economy plunged in the third quarter of 2011 at its fastest rate ever. The upturn in the economy proved only temporary under the restraints of austerity economics. It may yet need another bailout. "

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on January 09, 2012, 04:07:51 PM
This shows how the ECB operates: http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/ (http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: seafoid on January 09, 2012, 07:38:07 PM
Quote from: muppet on January 09, 2012, 04:07:51 PM
This shows how the ECB operates: http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/ (http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/)
I am surpised there is a letter. Dick Cheney never wrote anything down and Trichet had a touch of the Cheney. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on January 09, 2012, 10:00:04 PM
Nothing about this surprises me anymore
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: supersarsfields on January 10, 2012, 08:35:03 AM
Quote from: muppet on January 09, 2012, 01:51:31 PM
Quote from: supersarsfields on January 09, 2012, 01:36:05 PM
Ummmm lending money to prop up share prices.

Rings a bell.

In all honestly Muppet as I know you keep a close look at this and the bail out in general what would be your gut feeling about this? ( I know my interest is mostly on the SQ aspect but leaving that to an aside).
Do you believe Drumm regarding the fact that the gov not only knew about the deal but were actively involved in it and therefore involved in the deception of the markets? Or would you believe that Drumm is just trying to limit his liability?

Just out of interest as I know there is alot of information and misinformation flying around regarding this so would be interested to hear which side you believe is more likely? Obviously no one can say for definite at this stage so just your gut instinst?

1) David Drumm formerly of Anglo (not Professor Drumm of the HSE) is not the only person saying this type of thing, there are others such as Denis Casey formerly of IL&P (http://www.independent.ie/national-news/finance-denies-it-knew-of-83647bn-loan-to-anglo-2212421.html) who has sworn under oath that the regulator knew of the €7bn loans from IL&P to Anglo.
2) There is no way any bank on the planet post-Lehmans would have lent €7bn to Anglo-Irish bank without some very important people either pressurizing them to do so, or guaranteeing the money in some way. It could easily be argued that this was another deception of the markets and either IL&P were incredibly reckless in doing so, or a higher power gave the nod.
3) There is obviously a reason why Drumm, Fitzpatrick and co are not in jail. My guess is that they would bring some very important people with them. Cowen & Lenihan were dispensable as we have seen. Kenny and in particular the abrasive Noonan appear to be unable to do anything about it which suggest the real power is elsewhere, probably in the Department of Finance. Remember Kevin Cardiff was in the Department throughout the crisis, Cowen & FF were dispensable but it appears Cardiff wasn't (http://finance.gov.ie/viewdoc.asp?DocID=6161).

The last point is one that is worrying the Quinn camp and a major reason why they are looking for the court cases to be held outside Ireland. they are of the belief that they won't get justice in Ireland as the Government and the regulator were too involved in the process the whole way through to allow a decision against them. Whether that is correct or not is another matter.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Orangemac on January 10, 2012, 10:57:05 PM
Quote from: seafoid on January 09, 2012, 03:49:31 PM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on January 09, 2012, 03:03:58 PM
Chief economist of Citigroup to tell RTE that Ireland requires a 2nd bailout according to Bryan Dobson on the tweet machine.

'@bryansixone: Chief economist of Citi tells RTE News that Ireland will need a 2nd bailout. More from David Murphy on 6-1 New'

Back to the markets by 2013 lol

Jeff Madrick on Ireland

http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2012/jan/06/europe-cutting-hope/

"And then there is Ireland. The recent experience of this once booming country should be deeply embarrassing to those who advocate austerity economics. For six months early last year, its national income started growing again after a couple of years of dramatic collapse following its own financial crisis. Ireland guaranteed all the debt of its over-aggressive failing banks to appease investors and then paid for it by cutting social spending sharply. Ireland's leaders said with almost religious authority that this painful self-discipline was necessary to right the economy, and officials in Ireland and across Europe hailed the country's brief rebound in 2011 as proof that it works. But then the Irish economy plunged in the third quarter of 2011 at its fastest rate ever. The upturn in the economy proved only temporary under the restraints of austerity economics. It may yet need another bailout. "
Could soon be time for the Morgan Kelly nuclear option? Cut everything that we can live within our means and tell bondholders to take a hike. Surely if Ireland got the deficit down to around 5/6 ibillion they could borrow from the IMF?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: armaghniac on January 11, 2012, 12:52:18 AM
The problem with cutting everything is that your tax collection then drops and you have to cut more so that the new equilibrium is quite a bit lower and everyone tries to make the cuts fall on someone else.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: seafoid on January 11, 2012, 10:17:34 AM
Quote from: Orangemac on January 10, 2012, 10:57:05 PM
Quote from: seafoid on January 09, 2012, 03:49:31 PM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on January 09, 2012, 03:03:58 PM
Chief economist of Citigroup to tell RTE that Ireland requires a 2nd bailout according to Bryan Dobson on the tweet machine.

'@bryansixone: Chief economist of Citi tells RTE News that Ireland will need a 2nd bailout. More from David Murphy on 6-1 New'

Back to the markets by 2013 lol

Jeff Madrick on Ireland

http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2012/jan/06/europe-cutting-hope/

"And then there is Ireland. The recent experience of this once booming country should be deeply embarrassing to those who advocate austerity economics. For six months early last year, its national income started growing again after a couple of years of dramatic collapse following its own financial crisis. Ireland guaranteed all the debt of its over-aggressive failing banks to appease investors and then paid for it by cutting social spending sharply. Ireland's leaders said with almost religious authority that this painful self-discipline was necessary to right the economy, and officials in Ireland and across Europe hailed the country's brief rebound in 2011 as proof that it works. But then the Irish economy plunged in the third quarter of 2011 at its fastest rate ever. The upturn in the economy proved only temporary under the restraints of austerity economics. It may yet need another bailout. "
Could soon be time for the Morgan Kelly nuclear option? Cut everything that we can live within our means and tell bondholders to take a hike. Surely if Ireland got the deficit down to around 5/6 ibillion they could borrow from the IMF?

The ECB has lent 150bn to the banks. If you wanted to shaft the bondholders it would be difficult now because the ECB is keeping the banking system going and holds an awful lot of bonds. It is a real mess.   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: LeoMc on January 11, 2012, 12:13:08 PM
Quote from: muppet on December 20, 2011, 07:05:07 PM
There seem to be rumours of a new currency being formed between the UK and Ireland. The new currency will be basically a merger of Sterling and the old Punt. It will be called the Stunt. There will be 100 pants in a Stunt. Citizens in both countries will be encouraged to put all their pants in the banks to improve stability and to increase the number of stunts available to the banks. Both countries are pinning their hopes on the Stunt and hope that it will restore confidence.

If the Stunt proves a success there are plans to merge both countries. The new country will be called Iruk. Britain will join the new entity on the condition that they do not participate in any way. Ireland will join on the condition that it is frequently praised for being a good Iruker, even if it bankrupts the place.

Not too sure about the name. The US will invade to get control of the IrUKi gas fields give us democracy.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Rossfan on January 11, 2012, 08:45:52 PM
Quote from: Orangemac on January 10, 2012, 10:57:05 PM
? Surely if Ireland got the deficit down to around 5/6 ibillion they could borrow from the IMF?

We will owe €200 Bn by then and the 5-6Bn will be interest on those borrowings.
Maybe the Govt should get rid of all the bloody acedemics and Economists from the Public payroll for a start.....
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Orangemac on January 11, 2012, 11:37:38 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on January 11, 2012, 08:45:52 PM
Quote from: Orangemac on January 10, 2012, 10:57:05 PM
? Surely if Ireland got the deficit down to around 5/6 ibillion they could borrow from the IMF?

We will owe €200 Bn by then and the 5-6Bn will be interest on those borrowings.
Maybe the Govt should get rid of all the bloody acedemics and Economists from the Public payroll for a start.....
If we took no more of the current baliout loan and refused to cover any more of the banks liabilities how much lower would the total debt be?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Lone Shark on January 12, 2012, 07:33:54 AM
In fairness, I'm not saying the long term plan is to default, but surely if it was, the logical (but not the ethical) thing to do would be to milk as much money as possible out of the system before you do?

Even by the current "austerity" standards, we are 20bn in the hole every year. Surely it makes sense to behave for another few years and then default when you're supposed to pay it back, as opposed to when you're still taking it in?

I'm not endorsing this approach by the way, merely saying that it would be the pragmatic way of looking at it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Rossfan on January 12, 2012, 12:51:44 PM
Quote from: Orangemac on January 11, 2012, 11:37:38 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on January 11, 2012, 08:45:52 PM
Quote from: Orangemac on January 10, 2012, 10:57:05 PM
? Surely if Ireland got the deficit down to around 5/6 ibillion they could borrow from the IMF?

We will owe €200 Bn by then and the 5-6Bn will be interest on those borrowings.
Maybe the Govt should get rid of all the bloody acedemics and Economists from the Public payroll for a start.....
If we took no more of the current baliout loan and refused to cover any more of the banks liabilities how much lower would the total debt be?

most of the bank bailing has been done and the IMF/EU money is needed to pay Pensions/Social Welfare/Public pay.
I suppose you could always try cutting all public pay/pensions/social welfare by 50%  ::) ... ....
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on January 18, 2012, 11:41:21 AM
http://politico.ie/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=8211&Itemid=1318&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Politicoie+%28Latest+from+Politico.ie%29 (http://politico.ie/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=8211&Itemid=1318&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Politicoie+%28Latest+from+Politico.ie%29)

The above explains the €30bn Anglo Promissory Note in layman's (not Lehmans  ;D) language.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Hardy on January 20, 2012, 12:46:43 PM
Go on Vinny! (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oBjxmsoIFKs)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Main Street on January 26, 2012, 10:54:04 AM
"Whatever you say about the euro, it's a great insulator."
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/25/us-ireland-art-euro-idUSTRE80O0PY20120125 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/25/us-ireland-art-euro-idUSTRE80O0PY20120125)

(http://s1.reutersmedia.net/resources/r/?m=02&d=20120125&t=2&i=562472928&w=&fh=&fw=&ll=700&pl=300&r=BTRE80O0RAY00)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on January 30, 2012, 12:17:09 PM
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/29/ireland-ecb-idUSL5E8CT08H20120129 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/29/ireland-ecb-idUSL5E8CT08H20120129)

Jan 29 (Reuters) - The Irish government is lobbying the European Central Bank to allow it to delay by a decade the repayment of 31 billion euros ($40.7 billion) of loans used to bail out the country's banking sector, the Sunday Times reported.

The government has said it is discussing several options with the ECB about how to reduce the cost of the bank bailout, including refinancing the promissory notes used to bail out now-defunct Anglo Irish Bank and Irish Nationwide Building Society. The notes carry an interest bill of 17 billion euros.


The bit in bold couldn't be right or we are screwed. If Anglo and INBS alone cost €17bn in interests, the Dept of Social Welfare cost €20bn and we are taking in less than that in tax, it is hard to see how we will pay back the National Debt + the ELA to the banks (over €300bn combined) while still having a Health Service, Gardai, Teachers, Prisons, Roads a civil service etc.

That article must have an error surely?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Smokin Joe on January 30, 2012, 01:22:44 PM
Quote from: muppet on January 30, 2012, 12:17:09 PM
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/29/ireland-ecb-idUSL5E8CT08H20120129 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/29/ireland-ecb-idUSL5E8CT08H20120129)

Jan 29 (Reuters) - The Irish government is lobbying the European Central Bank to allow it to delay by a decade the repayment of 31 billion euros ($40.7 billion) of loans used to bail out the country's banking sector, the Sunday Times reported.

The government has said it is discussing several options with the ECB about how to reduce the cost of the bank bailout, including refinancing the promissory notes used to bail out now-defunct Anglo Irish Bank and Irish Nationwide Building Society. The notes carry an interest bill of 17 billion euros.


The bit in bold couldn't be right or we are screwed. If Anglo and INBS alone cost €17bn in interests, the Dept of Social Welfare cost €20bn and we are taking in less than that in tax, it is hard to see how we will pay back the National Debt + the ELA to the banks (over €300bn combined) while still having a Health Service, Gardai, Teachers, Prisons, Roads a civil service etc.

That article must have an error surely?


Might that be the interest payable over the life of the notes?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: thejuice on February 10, 2012, 01:38:17 PM
Firemens brilliant protest in Brussels

http://youtu.be/26dtpOZw0do


Meanwhile in Greece in the local papers:

(http://www.politics.ie/news/attachments/merkel-nazi.jpg-94d1328879541.html)

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: From the Bunker on February 21, 2012, 10:39:09 PM
Constitutional and Common Law's Halt Laois Sheriff On Home Repossession and Eviction in Ireland

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PpUjl4LvQM8 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PpUjl4LvQM8)

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: EC Unique on February 21, 2012, 11:21:22 PM
Quote from: From the Bunker on February 21, 2012, 10:39:09 PM
Constitutional and Common Law's Halt Laois Sheriff On Home Repossession and Eviction in Ireland

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PpUjl4LvQM8 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PpUjl4LvQM8)

Very good.  :)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: thejuice on February 22, 2012, 12:02:35 PM
What the Chinese see in Ireland:

Ireland the 'Hong Kong of Europe'
http://europe.chinadaily.com.cn/europe/2012-02/21/content_14654771.htm

"Ireland is home to high-tech companies, so we are the second-largest exporter of software technology, which gives Chinese companies opportunities to partner with Irish companies," said Conroy, who expects more future investment in financial services, life sciences, information and communication technology, Internet, wind energy and clean technology.
Ireland remains a hub for international brands. Google, Facebook and Intel all run major European operations in Ireland, lured by its low corporate tax of 12.5 percent.


"Trade center may act as European hub"
http://europe.chinadaily.com.cn/europe/2012-02/21/content_14654767.htm

Three seperate articles on the front page of ChinaDaily on Ireland – For a continent in crisis, that's not nothing:

"Ireland's low corporate tax rate and its language advantage as the only English-speaking country in the eurozone are seen as major attractions for more potential Chinese enterprises."

"While Ireland managed to transform a longtime agrarian society into a high-tech one in only 15 to 20 years, China is going through a similar transformation."

"Why did the next Chinese leader spend three days in Ireland? (2012; O'Toole, Slugger; Fealty, Mick)"
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Croí na hÉireann on February 27, 2012, 04:02:38 PM
I know we're up shit creek but these figures are still staggering  :o http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2012/02/27/the-land-of-the-financially-blind?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=the-land-of-the-financially-blind (http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2012/02/27/the-land-of-the-financially-blind?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=the-land-of-the-financially-blind)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: thejuice on February 28, 2012, 10:42:33 PM
Well we're getting a referendum so.

Quotehttp://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0228/referendum.html

A senior German MEP has told RTÉ News he is surprised the Government has decided to call a referendum because the intergovernmental treaty "did not involve a transfer of sovereignty of the country".
Elmar Brok MEP, a member of Chancellor Angela Merkel's CDU Party, said the fiscal compact "doesn't change anything".
He said it was a question of implementing the rules everyone had already signed up to years ago, when they became members of the euro.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Rossfan on February 29, 2012, 10:52:39 AM
Presumably as a device to "make " Europe give us a bit of leeway on interest rates or repayment time spans  ???
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: armaghniac on February 29, 2012, 12:19:29 PM
QuotePresumably as a device to "make " Europe give us a bit of leeway on interest rates or repayment time spans

(http://1-2knockout.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/2008/04/06/bart.png)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on February 29, 2012, 04:23:17 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on February 29, 2012, 10:52:39 AM
Presumably as a device to "make " Europe give us a bit of leeway on interest rates or repayment time spans  ???

That would actually be something.

I suspect the leadership in both FG and Labour know the novices on the backbenchers are seriously short of cohones. Look at Penrose. Look at Vaticanists. That is probably the only reason for the vote.

Regardless this referendum will expose a few harsh truths:

* Firstly, we have no sovereignty since the night of the Bank Guarantee.
* Secondly, all parties serious about ever being in power will campaign for a yes vote. SF's face a Hobson's Choice, naked populism no matter how daft, or face reality and risk losing lots of newfound protest votes.

Ireland being Ireland the debate will be strictly limited to a choice of Burn the bondholders (who are long gone) versus We have no choice (without ever explaining fully why because that would be too embarrassing). There will be about as much analysis as there was for the Lisbon Treaty 1, Lisbon Treaty 2, Bank Guarantee, Anglo Nationalisation, Corrib Gas Giveaway,  eVoting, Bank Regulation, etc, etc, amen.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: CiKe on February 29, 2012, 07:33:55 PM
http://www.johnmauldin.com/images/uploads/pdf/mwo022712.pdf

This is a link to "A Primer on the Euro Breakup". By looking at historical precedent they seem to make leaving the Euro seem not such a disastrous choice, however acknowledge that in this instance starting conditions are considerably worse and that you are effectively combining a stereotypical "emerging markets crisis" with a currency breakup.

My own thoughts for some time have been that may be better to bite the bullet and get the worst of it over with rather than have 10 yrs of stagnation with no light at the end of the tunnel. That said I have been on the outside for a while and am looking back in and realistically won't be returning to Ireland any time soon if at all.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Pangurban on February 29, 2012, 08:07:44 PM
Referendum my arse, if they dont get the right result to legitimise their lunacy, they will keep coming back until they do. The will of the people counts for nothing in our European democracy.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: armaghniac on February 29, 2012, 08:24:31 PM
QuoteReferendum my arse, if they dont get the right result to legitimise their lunacy, they will keep coming back until they do. The will of the people counts for nothing in our European democracy.

This kind of half baked comment will be typical of the campaign. One party loses an election, they don't go off and shoot themselves (perhaps this is a pity), but they come back again at the next election and try and convince people to change their mind. That's how democracy works.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Pangurban on March 02, 2012, 01:27:59 AM
Come back and debate when you have learned the difference between referenda and elections
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: johnneycool on March 02, 2012, 09:35:37 AM
Quote from: muppet on February 29, 2012, 04:23:17 PM
[
Ireland being Ireland the debate will be strictly limited to a choice of Burn the bondholders (who are long gone) versus We have no choice (without ever explaining fully why because that would be too embarrassing). There will be about as much analysis as there was for the Lisbon Treaty 1, Lisbon Treaty 2, Bank Guarantee, Anglo Nationalisation, Corrib Gas Giveaway,  eVoting, Bank Regulation, etc, etc, amen.

Have the bondholders got their money at this stage?

If they have then indeed the horse has bolted and cap in hand to the European central bank/IMF/Troica (or whatever they are called) it is then!

The Bondholders should only have gotten their money (if that was agreed by Cowan and Lenihan) when Ireland could afford to give it to them, not borrow money at extortionate rates to pay the hoors right away!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Rossfan on March 02, 2012, 09:36:34 AM
Quote from: Pangurban on February 29, 2012, 08:07:44 PM
Referendum my arse, if they dont get the right result to legitimise their lunacy, they will keep coming back until they do. The will of the people counts for nothing in our European democracy.

So what's your well thought out solution/alternative that will get us out of the €150 Bn mess we've been landed in?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: seafoid on March 02, 2012, 11:02:29 AM
Quote from: johnneycool on March 02, 2012, 09:35:37 AM
Quote from: muppet on February 29, 2012, 04:23:17 PM
[
Ireland being Ireland the debate will be strictly limited to a choice of Burn the bondholders (who are long gone) versus We have no choice (without ever explaining fully why because that would be too embarrassing). There will be about as much analysis as there was for the Lisbon Treaty 1, Lisbon Treaty 2, Bank Guarantee, Anglo Nationalisation, Corrib Gas Giveaway,  eVoting, Bank Regulation, etc, etc, amen.

Have the bondholders got their money at this stage?

If they have then indeed the horse has bolted and cap in hand to the European central bank/IMF/Troica (or whatever they are called) it is then!

The Bondholders should only have gotten their money (if that was agreed by Cowan and Lenihan) when Ireland could afford to give it to them, not borrow money at extortionate rates to pay the hoors right away!

The only issue outstanding is the loan of 31bn that was taken out to pay off the bondholders in Anglo and INBS.
The bondholders got away but the ECB is owed this money. 
Ireland is probably going to have to suck on it.  It's very hard to be assertive and bolshy with a budget deficit at 9% of GDP.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on March 02, 2012, 03:17:35 PM
Quote from: johnneycool on March 02, 2012, 09:35:37 AM
Quote from: muppet on February 29, 2012, 04:23:17 PM
[
Ireland being Ireland the debate will be strictly limited to a choice of Burn the bondholders (who are long gone) versus We have no choice (without ever explaining fully why because that would be too embarrassing). There will be about as much analysis as there was for the Lisbon Treaty 1, Lisbon Treaty 2, Bank Guarantee, Anglo Nationalisation, Corrib Gas Giveaway,  eVoting, Bank Regulation, etc, etc, amen.

Have the bondholders got their money at this stage?

If they have then indeed the horse has bolted and cap in hand to the European central bank/IMF/Troica (or whatever they are called) it is then!

The Bondholders should only have gotten their money (if that was agreed by Cowan and Lenihan) when Ireland could afford to give it to them, not borrow money at extortionate rates to pay the hoors right away!

The bondholders are long gone. But get this, those bondholders who according to the ECB and Lenny had to have 100% of their debts guaranteed......sold at a discount to Hedge Funds. That discount (I've heard figures of 30% or more) should have gone to the taxpayer but Lenihan, Cowen and whatever idiots were advising them shirked playing hardball and went for their default spoof position.

Everything since then is merely musical deck chairs.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on March 05, 2012, 04:27:10 PM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9121151/Greek-default-looms-as-voluntary-debt-deal-looks-set-to-fail.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9121151/Greek-default-looms-as-voluntary-debt-deal-looks-set-to-fail.html)

The Telegraph thinks the Greek deal is collapsing already.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: thejuice on March 05, 2012, 04:42:55 PM
I was saying a while back that all we have to do is hold fire and don't commit to anything and wait for the Greeks pull the whole thing down.

Maybe we can get the referendum postponed if need be due to the weather or the man in charge forgot the keys to the house where the ballot papers are.

;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on March 05, 2012, 07:02:45 PM
Quote from: thejuice on March 05, 2012, 04:42:55 PM
I was saying a while back that all we have to do is hold fire and don't commit to anything and wait for the Greeks pull the whole thing down.

Maybe we can get the referendum postponed if need be due to the weather or the man in charge forgot the keys to the house where the ballot papers are.

;)

We might run out of toner!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: thejuice on March 06, 2012, 10:45:42 AM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9124569/European-recovery-rocked-by-poor-economic-data-in-Spain-and-Italy.html

Looks like Spain isn't playing ball. They have decided to reduce the austerity measures to prevent a debt spiral without the approval of Brussels.

The PP government are blaming the Basques and Catalans for it which is par de course for them but it's completely wrong.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: johnneycool on March 06, 2012, 11:16:30 AM
Quote from: muppet on September 29, 2008, 06:45:27 PM
The House of Representatives votes NO!!  :o

If the markets were rough today wait till tomorrow.  ???

DOW Jones down 6% or 690 points. Unbelievable.

Markets may not open tomorrow. Time for a pint.

And Ireland may need another bail out according to one of these pariah ratings agencies!

Who funds those hoors and how independent are they from their bed buddies in the financial or political world?

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: orangeman on March 09, 2012, 05:50:45 PM
Meanwhile a decent man ( not my words but the judges ) gets 6 years jail for not paying duty on garlic whilst thousands of decent people working in the country's banks get sacked but the bankers who caused the mess are still sailing their yachts and driving their big cars and living in their big houses all over the world.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0309/begleyp.html

The head of Ireland's largest fruit and vegetable producers has been jailed for six years for a €1.6m scam involving the importation of garlic.

Paul Begley, 46, avoided paying customs duty on over 1,000 tonnes of garlic from China by having them labelled as apples.

Dublin Circuit Criminal Court heard the import duty on garlic is "inexplicably" high and can be up to 232%.

In contrast, onions have an import duty of 9%.

The maximum sentence for the offence is five years in prison or a fine of three times the value of the goods.

Judge Martin Nolan imposed the maximum term on one count and one year on another count.

These are to run consecutively, meaning a total of six years.

"It gives me no joy at all to jail a decent man," Judge Nolan said.

He said Begley is a "success story" and an "asset to the country" in supporting the economy and providing employment.

He noted Begley's generosity and that he donates money to homeless charities and the St Vincent de Paul.
However, the judge added he had engaged in a "grave" and "huge" tax evasion scheme.

He said the import tax on garlic "may or may not" be excessive, but this is for the Oireachtas to decide and not individuals.

He said he had to impose a significant jail term because such offences are hard to uncover, therefore the only effective deterrence is lengthy prison terms for those who are caught.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Pangurban on March 09, 2012, 07:49:02 PM
It is notable that the former PM of Iceland and his Finance Minister were in court the other day, facing charges of reckless endangerment of the economy. Meanwhile Brian Cowen gets a standing ovation at the FF Ard-Dheis. We have learnt nothing and forgot nothing
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: trileacman on March 09, 2012, 07:50:35 PM
Quote from: orangeman on March 09, 2012, 05:50:45 PM
Meanwhile a decent man ( not my words but the judges ) gets 6 years jail for not paying duty on garlic whilst thousands of decent people working in the country's banks get sacked but the bankers who caused the mess are still sailing their yachts and driving their big cars and living in their big houses all over the world.

Yeah that is pretty fuckin sickening. Judge believed by handing out this sentence he was upholding the law, which would be fine if the law was upheld consistently. I mean what about Bertie's tax evasion? No bank account/good day at the races? WTF. And Drumm and Dunne? You think they amassed their millions all above board and with the public interest at heart?

Your country is on shite street when importing garlics and calling them apples is worth a 6 year sentence but running a national bank into some 20 billion euro's worth of debt deserves a golden handshake.

I couldn't really give a f**k about Dunne/Bertie/Haughey or the rest but I'd say this Begley fella was a decent fella, not too different from alot of us on here.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on March 09, 2012, 08:25:24 PM
More pertinently when the Banks were found guilty of the various offenses even before the current crisis  (Ansbacher (http://www.economist.com/node/1229653), Dirt scandal (http://www.independent.ie/national-news/banks-used-new-tax-scam-after-dirt-scandal-broke-516386.html) etc) the only person to go to jail was a journalist........for contempt of court.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: thejuice on March 09, 2012, 09:20:24 PM
This is lifted straight from Slugger but I thought it was worth throwing up here:

QuoteIs a Yes vote in EUref absurd?

Taoiseach Enda Kenny has already signed the European fiscal compact treaty along with 24 other European Union leaders at a ceremony in Brussels, although it still has to go to a referendum in the republic (at an as yet unknown date). The text of the treaty is provided here and is relatively short.

A couple of extracts from Article 3 (below) give the real substance of this.

ARTICLE 3

1. The Contracting Parties shall apply the rules set out in this paragraph in addition and without prejudice to their obligations under European Union law

(a) the budgetary position of the general government of a Contracting Party shall be balanced or in surplus;

(b) the rule under point (a) shall be deemed to be respected if the annual structural balance of the general government is at its country-specific medium-term objective, as defined in the revised Stability and Growth Pact, with a lower limit of a structural deficit of 0,5 % of the gross domestic product at market prices. The Contracting Parties shall ensure rapid convergence towards their respective medium-term objective. The time-frame for such convergence will be proposed by the European Commission taking into consideration country-specific sustainability risks. Progress towards, and respect of, the medium-term objective shall be evaluated on the basis of an overall assessment with the structural balance as a reference, including an analysis of expenditure net of discretionary revenue measures, in line with the revised Stability and Growth Pact;

(d) where the ratio of the general government debt to gross domestic product at market prices is significantly below 60 % and where risks in terms of long-term sustainability of public finances are low, the lower limit of the medium-term objective specified under point (b) can reach a structural deficit of at most 1,0 % of the gross domestic product at market prices;

A brief review of the exchequer statements shows that the relative income in 2004 was €37.5bn whilst expenditure was €37.5bn, since then only 2006 ran a surplus (2.3%) whilst other years ran deficits such as 0.5% (2005), 1.6% (2007), 12.7% (2008), 24.6% (2009) , 18.7% (2010), 10% (2011), with a further projected 8.6% deficit for 2012. So much for balanced budget, then (or complying with Article 3a).

As Constantin Gurgdiev has consistently pointed out, the recent history of structural deficits does not suggest a capacity to comply with Article 3b either:

Ireland was least insolvent in 1997-200 when the average structural annual deficit was just -0.65% of potential GDP
The closest we came to structural balance was in 1997 when structural deficit hit -0.394% and in 2000 when it was at -0.209%
Our peaks of insolvency were 1981 (-14.034%) and 2008 (-13.323%)

Our worst periods of insolvency were the early 1980s, when 1981-1986 average annual deficit stood at -12.125% and 2007-2010 when structural deficits averaged -10.555% annually (omitting 2007 raises this to -11.266%)
In 2011 we are expected to run structural deficit of 6.761% and in 2012-2015 we are expected to run average structural deficits of -3.753%.

What also needs to be factored in here, in terms of the austerity measures required to reach the treaty targets, is that the government must pay out €3.1bn each year until 2023 to cover the Anglo-Irish Bank promissory note. That's equivalent to around 6% of government revenues, at 2011 levels, or 8% if it managed to fall back to 2004 levels. That's on top of repaying the loans taken out to cover the deficits currently being run. In these circumstances, there appears to be no real possibility of the state complying with the terms required by the treaty. This makes the promotion of a yes vote seem, well, absurd. What possible reason could there be to promote a treaty which will result in the automatic imposition of penalties on the state?

In the Irish Times, Fintan O'Toole gives one answer, as he delivers a scathing verdict on the ideological underpinning of the treaty:

...the fiscal treaty does not deal in "facts". It is right-wing opinion given the force of law...

We're being asked, in other words, to vote for a badly thought-out ideological power grab that seeks to outlaw one side of the argument about fiscal policy. This is as paradoxical as the "war to end wars" – a democratic debate to outlaw democratic debate on one of the defining issues of politics, a vote to limit the meaning of voting.

As ever, read the whole thing!
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2012/0306/1224312849769.html

Full article here:
http://sluggerotoole.com/2012/03/07/is-a-yes-vote-in-euref-absurd/


QuoteA Yes vote is not absurd, but insane.
Talking of people's grannys – see Finbar's comment (on Fintan's article):

''Fintan,
I agree with you that this treaty is a "Thought Grab". However to understand it, you need to see it not as a right wing – left wing conflict, but as an age – youth conflict.

Germany is one of the most rapidly aging societies in the world. It's imperitive is to do everything that it can to aquire as much capital as possible and preserve the value of that capital against the day when a large proportion of its citizens are no longer able to produce, but require extremely expensive care and services as their health and well-being ebbs. To do that, Germany — publically, through its banks and through its overwhelming influence in the ECB — has pursued two policies:

1. Exploit the free movement of capital in the Euro zone and the incompetence of peripheral market bankers and regulators to extract over the odds returns from supposedly 'safe' assets, such as Irish and Spanish property.

2. Use control of the ECB to prevent losses on those investments returning to German banks, and to prevent the inflation which would ease the burden on peripheral debtors but reduce the value of German assets that German pensioners will rely on.

Yeuch!''
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: orangeman on March 09, 2012, 11:58:18 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 09, 2012, 08:25:24 PM
More pertinently when the Banks were found guilty of the various offenses even before the current crisis  (Ansbacher (http://www.economist.com/node/1229653), Dirt scandal (http://www.independent.ie/national-news/banks-used-new-tax-scam-after-dirt-scandal-broke-516386.html) etc) the only person to go to jail was a journalist........for contempt of court.

I've been thinking about this since and the state of the country - we've got it all badly mixed up here - a hard working decent man in the words of the sentencing judge goes to jail for 6 years for importing garlic and not paying the proper duty on it and the government ministers and bankers who were up to their bollox in blatant corruption and fraud and scandal and ont one of them is going to be held accountable let alone serve 6 years inside.

The country is in bad shape. If anyone were ever in any doubt, this man Begley proves it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on March 10, 2012, 12:09:56 AM
Begley deserved to go to jail. This was a €1,600,000 tax fraud.

However so do all of the others and for longer.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: orangeman on March 10, 2012, 01:21:47 AM
You could kill someone and end up getting less than 6 years for it.

Yes Begley was guilty of tax evasion but he clearly has worked hard all his life and is a decent man.

There's no chance of any TDs or bankers going to jail. If there was, they'd have to build a new wing on for them, there'd be so many of them. These boyos have got away scotfree and are laughing at the likes of Begley and all those who are suffering unemployment and facing huge burdens of debt.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: orangeman on March 10, 2012, 01:28:58 AM
Quote from: muppet on March 10, 2012, 12:09:56 AM
Begley deserved to go to jail. This was a €1,600,000 tax fraud.

However so do all of the others and for longer.

Begley got 6 years for a fraud of €1.6m.

What would the Tds and bankers get for fraud involving billions of euro ?. Ireland is couped. The decision to ignore all the real criminals in ireland cos they were bankers and politicians whilst hammering the shit out of joe public is sickening.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Ulick on March 10, 2012, 01:59:44 PM
Okay, so Greece has defaulted on 100 billion yoyos, bondholders burnt, bond yields fall and markets rise on the back of it. Any volunteers to trawl back through this thread to see who was rubbishing  the "economic illiterates" in Sinn Féin for espousing the same action?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: playwiththewind1st on March 10, 2012, 03:15:19 PM
No wonder the garlic's so bloody dear, if there's a 232% import tax on it. Cheaper garlic - NOW.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on March 10, 2012, 03:59:40 PM
Quote from: Ulick on March 10, 2012, 01:59:44 PM
Okay, so Greece has defaulted on 100 billion yoyos, bondholders burnt, bond yields fall and markets rise on the back of it. Any volunteers to trawl back through this thread to see who was rubbishing  the "economic illiterates" in Sinn Féin for espousing the same action?

Let's not trawl back, let's just keep this lie of yours that Greece defaulted on €100bn.

In addition, the time to screw the bondholders was the time of the bank guarantee. Sinn Féin, Fine Gael and most others supported it. I accept that Lenihan and his advisors didn't exactly give them accurate information but nonetheless SF supported guaranteeing the bondholders debt.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Ulick on March 10, 2012, 04:05:48 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 10, 2012, 03:59:40 PM
Let's not trawl back, let's just keep this lie of yours that Greece defaulted on €100bn.

Did they not? I've been kind of busy the past few days so haven't been following the detail but everyone yesterday and today (McWilliams et  al.) seem to think they did. What have they all missed?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on March 10, 2012, 04:17:33 PM
Quote from: Ulick on March 10, 2012, 04:05:48 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 10, 2012, 03:59:40 PM
Let's not trawl back, let's just keep this lie of yours that Greece defaulted on €100bn.

Did they not? I've been kind of busy the past few days so haven't been following the detail but everyone yesterday and today (McWilliams et  al.) seem to think they did. What have they all missed?

So far 86% of the bondholders have agreed to be part of the deal voluntarily. That figure will probably rise. That is not a burning of €100bn  which would be a disorderly default. This is not a disorderly default, it is an orderly default on the 86% and the 14% is still up in the air.

Despite SF supporting the Bank Guarantee and then claiming they are for the burning of the bondholders, now pretending that Greece has burned €100bn worth of bonds is nothing more than FF style populism.

The most stupid thing of all is SF would do well to wait and see if the Greece deal actually works first, which it won't, before claiming that is vindicates their u-turn to a burn-the-bondholders (but not really) policy.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: trileacman on March 10, 2012, 04:44:51 PM
On the Begley case it is misleading to call it a 1.6 million tax fraud as much of the money that was evaded in the initial import tax would have been recouped further down the line in VAT, PRSI and corporation tax. It didn't just land in some off-shore account on the Isle of Man. They amount saved would have been spread out over employees, hauliers, retailers and consumers. All companies, to some degree or the other, practice some form of tax evasion. Anyone who tells you different is a f**king idiot.

At the end of it all, Begley would have been lucky to have one or two hundred thousand in his back pocket over ten years meaning in real terms he was probably 10,000 better off ever year for it.

And for that he gets 6 years in prison.

Which would be acceptable if it wasn't for the fact that currently the former board members of Anglo and AIB live in mansions (on pensions beyond the reach of 99% of the worlds people) having caused the downfall of the Irish banking sector and contributing hugely to an European financial crisis.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: whiskeysteve on March 10, 2012, 04:58:32 PM
Muppet, how is this not a default as Ulick stated it? Yes it is 'orderly' but 100bn is almost officially up in smoke here, albeit this has long been priced in by the markets.

Or maybe this is a question of semantics over what is meant by 'burning'?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on March 10, 2012, 05:11:09 PM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on March 10, 2012, 04:58:32 PM
Muppet, how is this not a default as Ulick stated it? Yes it is 'orderly' but 100bn is almost officially up in smoke here, albeit this has long been priced in by the markets.

Or maybe this is a question of semantics over what is meant by 'burning'?

The €100bn is part the agreed deal. It is absolutely not a burning of bondholders in the 2 fingered we-are-not-paying-up sense being suggested by some. The deal offered was accept the haircut or be burned. 86% have accepted the former. It remains to be seem what happens the rest but they may end up 'burned' in the SF sense of the word.

It is important to note that there is f*ck all chance of this working for Greece regardless of your ideology.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: bcarrier on March 10, 2012, 05:23:13 PM
There is now a big problem in that the world and his mother thinks there is no longer a moral obligation to pay tax because of "the bankers". Personally I would be happy for someone like Begley to get a hefty financial penalty - I am not sure what the point of sending him to jail is.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: whiskeysteve on March 10, 2012, 05:26:13 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 10, 2012, 05:11:09 PM
It is important to note that there is f*ck all chance of this working for Greece regardless of your ideology.

Totally agreed

Quote from: muppet on March 10, 2012, 05:11:09 PM
The €100bn is part the agreed deal. It is absolutely not a burning of bondholders in the 2 fingered we-are-not-paying-up sense being suggested by some. The deal offered was accept the haircut or be burned. 86% have accepted the former. It remains to be seem what happens the rest but they may end up 'burned' in the SF sense of the word.

Im still confused here. To be fair, Ulick simply stated Greece has defaulted on 100bn as is the case. "let's just keep this lie of yours that Greece defaulted on €100bn." Not a lie as far as I can see just.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on March 10, 2012, 05:29:47 PM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on March 10, 2012, 05:26:13 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 10, 2012, 05:11:09 PM
It is important to note that there is f*ck all chance of this working for Greece regardless of your ideology.

Totally agreed

Quote from: muppet on March 10, 2012, 05:11:09 PM
The €100bn is part the agreed deal. It is absolutely not a burning of bondholders in the 2 fingered we-are-not-paying-up sense being suggested by some. The deal offered was accept the haircut or be burned. 86% have accepted the former. It remains to be seem what happens the rest but they may end up 'burned' in the SF sense of the word.

Im still confused here. To be fair, Ulick simply stated Greece has defaulted on 100bn as is the case. "let's just keep this lie of yours that Greece defaulted on €100bn." Not a lie as far as I can see just.

This is about spin. Greece did everything their bailout partners in the Trioka demanded. They played ball and signed up to everything that was asked of them. The Burn the Bondholders philosophy is precisely the opposite.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Ulick on March 10, 2012, 07:38:07 PM
Ach muppet come on now, you're playing with semantics, whether they're burnt on a twelfth night bonfire or singed with a zippo, the principle is the same, Greece defaulted and the bondholders didn't get their money. Pity them, should have bought Anglo bonds instead as we're only too happy to pay gamblers even when they lose.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: whiskeysteve on March 10, 2012, 08:03:38 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 10, 2012, 05:29:47 PM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on March 10, 2012, 05:26:13 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 10, 2012, 05:11:09 PM
It is important to note that there is f*ck all chance of this working for Greece regardless of your ideology.

Totally agreed

Quote from: muppet on March 10, 2012, 05:11:09 PM
The €100bn is part the agreed deal. It is absolutely not a burning of bondholders in the 2 fingered we-are-not-paying-up sense being suggested by some. The deal offered was accept the haircut or be burned. 86% have accepted the former. It remains to be seem what happens the rest but they may end up 'burned' in the SF sense of the word.

Im still confused here. To be fair, Ulick simply stated Greece has defaulted on 100bn as is the case. "let's just keep this lie of yours that Greece defaulted on €100bn." Not a lie as far as I can see just.

This is about spin. Greece did everything their bailout partners in the Trioka demanded. They played ball and signed up to everything that was asked of them. The Burn the Bondholders philosophy is precisely the opposite.

Sorry, do not agree with that reading of the situation at all. The Greeks have been notorious for fiddling the figures in the years running up to the crisis and then in the era of intervention from the troika have proven themselves repeateadly to be utterly incapable of imposing the structural reforms demanded of them. Most infamously with the tax collectors themselves striking. Papandreou most certainly did not play ball by calling for a referendum and got the boot for a ex Goldman technocrat.

The bondholders have been told to take their haircut or f**k off otherwise there will be a civil insurrection, perhaps a military coup down the line and certainly no money.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on March 11, 2012, 10:50:44 AM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on March 10, 2012, 08:03:38 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 10, 2012, 05:29:47 PM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on March 10, 2012, 05:26:13 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 10, 2012, 05:11:09 PM
It is important to note that there is f*ck all chance of this working for Greece regardless of your ideology.

Totally agreed

Quote from: muppet on March 10, 2012, 05:11:09 PM
The €100bn is part the agreed deal. It is absolutely not a burning of bondholders in the 2 fingered we-are-not-paying-up sense being suggested by some. The deal offered was accept the haircut or be burned. 86% have accepted the former. It remains to be seem what happens the rest but they may end up 'burned' in the SF sense of the word.

Im still confused here. To be fair, Ulick simply stated Greece has defaulted on 100bn as is the case. "let's just keep this lie of yours that Greece defaulted on €100bn." Not a lie as far as I can see just.

This is about spin. Greece did everything their bailout partners in the Trioka demanded. They played ball and signed up to everything that was asked of them. The Burn the Bondholders philosophy is precisely the opposite.

Sorry, do not agree with that reading of the situation at all. The Greeks have been notorious for fiddling the figures in the years running up to the crisis and then in the era of intervention from the troika have proven themselves repeateadly to be utterly incapable of imposing the structural reforms demanded of them. Most infamously with the tax collectors themselves striking. Papandreou most certainly did not play ball by calling for a referendum and got the boot for a ex Goldman technocrat.

The bondholders have been told to take their haircut or f**k off otherwise there will be a civil insurrection, perhaps a military coup down the line and certainly no money.

Steve what you write is correct and irrelevant. We could also talk about Troy, Sparta and Leonardis etc. but that would be irrelevant.

Regarding what Ulick incorrectly called the burning of the bondholders, the Greeks played ball with the Troika. By playing ball they got the debt written off.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on March 11, 2012, 11:06:43 AM
Quote from: Ulick on March 10, 2012, 07:38:07 PM
Ach muppet come on now, you're playing with semantics, whether they're burnt on a twelfth night bonfire or singed with a zippo, the principle is the same, Greece defaulted and the bondholders didn't get their money. Pity them, should have bought Anglo bonds instead as we're only too happy to pay gamblers even when they lose.

It couldn't be more different. Your proclamation of Sinn Féin's 'economic illiterates' burn-the-bondholders policy having been proven right by Greece is idiotic for any number of reasons.  The spin you want us to believe is that some brilliant SF-like political party in Greece decided to burn the bondholders and hey presto: €100bn of debt disappeared. You then want us to believe that a SF-like party could do the same here if only we would elect them to power.

The reality is that nothing of the sort happened. The deal was actually imposed on Greece by the Troika and Greece had absolutely no choice.

I have to point out I have absolutely no ideological, moral or otherwise objection to burning bondholders. The problem is the time for doing it is long gone and was completely missed by FF bluffers and in particular their advisors. It should be noted that SF supported the guarantee. To get to a situation where the bondholders, as in Greece, will voluntarily write off up to 75% of the debt, we would have to be economically back to The Famine, as Greece are.

The last, last, last thing we need now are new populist political bullshitters to replace the old ones who got us into this mess.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: lynchbhoy on March 11, 2012, 11:24:16 AM
muppet, whatever about sf - they are not in gov so dont really count here (they supported the bailout like everyone did as it was the only show in town and since , like a few others have tried to call for defaulting of some degree - I think is the summary of their only relevence in this matter) - while FF were the orchestrators of all of this, fg/lab have been in gov for a year and have had ample oportunity to push for reductions or debt write offs.
they dont seem to have done either - as if they did inda and eamonn would be crowing about it from the rooftops (and these two show up to pulbicise the announcement of a creation of 2 new jobs these days it seems).
my lay opinion here is that these two clowns have been behaving like two class licks and not asking for anything that would help our country more.
the IMF were the ones that got us some respite the last time - its like the tax man telling you that you have over paid your tax and here is a cheque back to you. You will accept it but the bonus was not of your creation !

Greece seemed to be rebelling and in order to have them able to pay back the money injected into their economy and not suffer the ignomy of default - the EU reduced their terms.
They didnt play ball it seems and were rewarded.
We are playing ball and are being left to pay back the whole caboodle.
We need our 'leaders (temporary I hope) to start asking for equality and same kind of terms that greece got.
this would help out our country greatly.

my sideline view of this might be incorrect but thats what I have been taking from these reports on all this craic over the past year or more...

inda better get the finger out- or more apppropriately, get his tongue out (of the eu sphincter...and get us some slack!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on March 11, 2012, 11:30:34 AM
Quote from: lynchbhoy on March 11, 2012, 11:24:16 AM
muppet, whatever about sf - they are not in gov so dont really count here (they supported the bailout like everyone did as it was the only show in town and since , like a few others have tried to call for defaulting of some degree - I think is the summary of their only relevence in this matter) - while FF were the orchestrators of all of this, fg/lab have been in gov for a year and have had ample oportunity to push for reductions or debt write offs.
they dont seem to have done either - as if they did inda and eamonn would be crowing about it from the rooftops (and these two show up to pulbicise the announcement of a creation of 2 new jobs these days it seems).
my lay opinion here is that these two clowns have been behaving like two class licks and not asking for anything that would help our country more.
the IMF were the ones that got us some respite the last time - its like the tax man telling you that you have over paid your tax and here is a cheque back to you. You will accept it but the bonus was not of your creation !

Greece seemed to be rebelling and in order to have them able to pay back the money injected into their economy and not suffer the ignomy of default - the EU reduced their terms.
They didnt play ball it seems and were rewarded.
We are playing ball and are being left to pay back the whole caboodle.
We need our 'leaders (temporary I hope) to start asking for equality and same kind of terms that greece got.
this would help out our country greatly.

my sideline view of this might be incorrect but thats what I have been taking from these reports on all this craic over the past year or more...

inda better get the finger out- or more apppropriately, get his tongue out (of the eu sphincter...and get us some slack!

LB you are basing the above on the notion that we are a sovereign state free to do as we wish. We aren't, not since the Bank Guarantee. The Dáil is now simply a talk shop with all of the parties pretending that they have some relevance. Enda has no more leverage to reduce the debt than Jedward. Greece's leverage is that they are so broke they are handing their children to charities (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-16472310), i.e. their society is destroyed. And this new bailout still leaves them owing billions.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on March 11, 2012, 11:33:07 AM
This is what the burning of only some bondholders would require:

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2011/0507/1224296372123.html?sms_ss=twitter&at_xt=4dc69621aa9f1c89,0 (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2011/0507/1224296372123.html?sms_ss=twitter&at_xt=4dc69621aa9f1c89,0)

No left true leaning party could even countenance such an act.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Pangurban on March 11, 2012, 06:30:00 PM
Eat your Soup and stop whinging, if you had engaged your Brains instead of your Credit Cards, you would not be in the mess. Then you elected a FG/Lab coalition hoping they could improve your lot, how stupid can you get. Soveriegnty comes with a price tag, and you were too mean to pay it, so welcome to the German Empire. They wont suffer fools as tolerantly as your former British masters
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on March 12, 2012, 06:03:00 PM
Quotemuppet, whatever about sf - they are not in gov so dont really count here (they supported the bailout like everyone did as it was the only show in town and since , like a few others have tried to call for defaulting of some degree - I think is the summary of their only relevence in this matter)

The last page or so is about Ulick's boast that Sinn Féin were proven right by Greece's new bailout.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on March 13, 2012, 11:58:48 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=ri1PFJ5vTTk (http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=ri1PFJ5vTTk)

The infamous Promissory Note explained.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on March 16, 2012, 05:12:11 PM
For those of you who didn't watch the above video, and I strongly recommend that every single Irish person watch that 4 minute clip, I am going to paraphrase parts of it here.

(N.B. I don't understand all of the terminology either)

Firstly, somebody somewhere decided that Anglo/INBS bondholders must be saved at all costs. The solution was that the Irish Central Bank would literally print €30bn and give it to Anglo/INBS which in turn paid off the bondholders (note: the bondholders long gone). The Irish Government then promised, via a Promissory Note, to repay the €30bn from the Exchequer. The €3.1bn due at the end of this month is part of the schedule and comes straight out of the money cut in the budget/or borrowed from the Troika.

But this is the killer: When the Irish Government pays the €3.1 bn to the Irish Central Bank, the Central Bank destroys the money! It disappears. Gone. Out of our pockets and turned into dust.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/03/philip-pilkington-the-irish-begin-to-wake-up-to-the-fact-that-they-are-repaying-money-that-is-then-burned.html (http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/03/philip-pilkington-the-irish-begin-to-wake-up-to-the-fact-that-they-are-repaying-money-that-is-then-burned.html)

Crazy as this sounds it apparently is quite normal for banks to issue debt, collect it and then destroy it.

The problem is, when the banks don't get their money back, or specifically when they lent it ridiculously, they get bailed out by order of the ECB, funded by the taxpayer. However if a bunch of taxpayers do it, for example Lenihan's lugs to the west of Europe, no deal, they must pay themselves back the money, regardless of the social consequences, and then burn it.

One of two things happened to set up this lunacy:

a) Cowen, Lenihan & co acted unilaterally and issued the Promissory Note to save Anglo/INBS's Bondholders.

b) The ECB ordered it.

If it b) it is time everyone put on the green jersey and told the ECB to shove it.

If it is a) then we should hire the world's most expensive barristers and refuse to pay, on grounds of the inevitable mis-information (e.g.: it is a liquidity problem not a solvency one) that we were told made it necessary and which was the basis on which the Dáil voted for it.

So far Spain is way off target on its deficit and not remotely concerned, while even Germany and France are snubbing the ECB and missing their targets. The ECB sits idle watching them. What are we doing? We are organising a Joe Higgins re-election campaign by not paying €100. At least that €100 goes back into the economy. The above Promissory Note repayment literally goes up in smoke.

Historically the Irish always fragment into groups and fight the wrong fights or the right fight at the wrong time or fight to many different fights at the same time. We have protests over A&E in Ros, Joe Higgins & co, and various local Health, Education and other issues all drawing small groups of protesters.

We need to pick one fight, and get everyone behind it.

Our politicians, of all shades, would be doing us a far greater service by telling the EU we will not be paying the Promissory Note, or at least not in the near future. I have asked a few prominent people who know about such stuff and this action would not be considered a default. A default could be big trouble as all of our debt would fall due immediately, but non-payment of the Promissory Note, which we are paying ourselves, does not constitute a default.


Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: orangeman on March 16, 2012, 05:23:33 PM
Jeez Muppet when you put it like that the €100 a house does look a bit silly compared with the cheque for €3.1billion.

Penny wise, pound foolish or something like that.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on March 16, 2012, 05:29:24 PM
Quote from: orangeman on March 16, 2012, 05:23:33 PM
Jeez Muppet when you put it like that the €100 a house does look a bit silly compared with the cheque for €3.1billion.

Penny wise, pound foolish or something like that.

That video has another amazing stat: the €3.1bn we will shortly pay back on the Promissory Note, and which will be burned, is about 81% of the total cuts in the 2012 budget!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Capt Pat on March 17, 2012, 12:31:58 AM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0316/exports-business.html

How to run an economy. Our biggest ever balance of trade surplus.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on March 21, 2012, 11:26:54 PM
http://politico.ie/irish-politics/8367-questions-arise-on-promissory-note-deferral.html (http://politico.ie/irish-politics/8367-questions-arise-on-promissory-note-deferral.html)

Twitteratti speculating on some sort of deal to defer the €3.1bn.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Denn Forever on March 22, 2012, 09:32:41 AM
Please don't be true.  Heard that developers who have transferred their properties into NAMA may be able to buy them back. 

Surely if they have money to buy property they should be using this money to pay back their debt?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Rossfan on March 22, 2012, 11:05:09 AM
Nothing surprises me any more.
I presume the cnuts will buy them back for a quarter of what they owe and the debt will be written off.
Please , in the day that Mahon hits the shelves, don't let the developer mafia who wrecked the country loose to start their whole racketsoff again.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Denn Forever on April 03, 2012, 06:32:19 PM
Surely there are laws against child labour?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17598550

An 11-year-old boy's plan to save the eurozone has been commended in a major competition that has attracted some of the world's top economists.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on April 03, 2012, 06:48:39 PM
Quote from: Denn Forever on April 03, 2012, 06:32:19 PM
Surely there are laws against child labour?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17598550

An 11-year-old boy's plan to save the eurozone has been commended in a major competition that has attracted some of the world's top economists.

Deep down I always knew the answer would be pizza.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on April 17, 2012, 07:33:50 PM
And on it goes:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/17/eu-spain-idUSL6E8FHA1820120417 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/17/eu-spain-idUSL6E8FHA1820120417)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on April 19, 2012, 09:57:55 AM
How the Goldman Vampire Squid Captured Europe
The Goldman Sachs coup that failed in America has nearly succeeded in Europe—a permanent, irrevocable, unchallengeable bailout for the banks underwritten by the taxpayers.
by Ellen Brown
In September 2008, Henry Paulson, former CEO of Goldman Sachs, managed to extort a $700 billion bank bailout from Congress.  But to pull it off, he had to fall on his knees and threaten the collapse of the entire global financial system and the imposition of martial law; and the bailout was a one-time affair.  Paulson's plea for a permanent bailout fund—the Troubled Asset Relief Program or TARP—was opposed by Congress and ultimately rejected.

By December 2011, European Central Bank president Mario Draghi, former vice president of Goldman Sachs Europe, was able to approve a 500 billion Euro bailout for European banks without asking anyone's permission.  And in January 2012, a permanent rescue funding program called the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) was passed in the dead of night with barely even a mention in the press.  The ESM imposes an open-ended debt on EU member governments, putting taxpayers on the hook for whatever the ESM's Eurocrat overseers demand.

The bankers' coup has triumphed in Europe seemingly without a fight.  The ESM is cheered by Eurozone governments, their creditors, and "the market" alike, because it means investors will keep buying sovereign debt.  All is sacrificed to the demands of the creditors, because where else can the money be had to float the crippling debts of the Eurozone governments?

There is another alternative to debt slavery to the banks.  But first, a closer look at the nefarious underbelly of the ESM and Goldman's silent takeover of the ECB ...

The ESM is a permanent rescue facility slated to replace the temporary European Financial Stability Facility and European Financial Stabilization Mechanism as soon as Member States representing 90% of the capital commitments have ratified it, something that is expected to happen in July 2012.  A December 2011 youtube video titled "The shocking truth of the pending EU collapse!", originally posted in German, gives such a revealing look at the ESM that it is worth quoting here at length.  It states:

"Europeans are being hoodwinked into relinquishing their cherished democracy to a rogue band of financial pirates, and the rest of the world is not far behind."

The EU is planning a new treaty called the European Stability Mechanism, or ESM:  a treaty of debt. . . . The authorized capital stock shall be 700 billion euros.  Question: why 700 billion?  [Probable answer: it simply mimicked the $700 billion the U.S. Congress bought into in 2008.] . . . .

[Article 9]: ". . . ESM Members hereby irrevocably and unconditionally undertake to pay on demand any capital call made on them . . . within seven days of receipt of such demand."  . . . If the ESM needs money, we have seven days to pay. . . . But what does "irrevocably and unconditionally" mean?  What if we have a new parliament, one that does not want to transfer money to the ESM?  . . . .

[Article 10]: "The Board of Governors may decide to change the authorized capital and amend Article 8 . . . accordingly."  Question:  . . . 700 billion is just the beginning?  The ESM can stock up the fund as much as it wants to, any time it wants to?  And we would then be required under Article 9 to irrevocably and unconditionally pay up?

[Article 27, lines 2-3]: "The ESM, its property, funding, and assets . . . shall enjoy immunity from every form of judicial process . . . ."  Question:  So the ESM program can sue us, but we can't challenge it in court?

[Article 27, line 4]: "The property, funding and assets of the ESM shall . . . be immune from search, requisition, confiscation, expropriation, or any other form of seizure, taking or foreclosure by executive, judicial, administrative or legislative action."  Question: . . . [T]his means that neither our governments, nor our legislatures, nor any of our democratic laws have any effect on the ESM organization?  That's a pretty powerful treaty!

[Article 30]:  "Governors, alternate Governors, Directors, alternate Directors, the Managing Director and staff members shall be immune from legal process with respect to acts performed by them . . . and shall enjoy inviolability in respect of their official papers and documents."   Question:  So anyone involved in the ESM is off the hook?  They can't be held accountable for anything? . . . The treaty establishes a new intergovernmental organization to which we are required to transfer unlimited assets within seven days if it so requests, an organization that can sue us but is immune from all forms of prosecution and whose managers enjoy the same immunity.  There are no independent reviewers and no existing laws apply?  Governments cannot take action against it?  Europe's national budgets in the hands of one single unelected intergovernmental organization?  Is that the future of Europe?  Is that the new EU – a Europe devoid of sovereign democracies?

Last November, without fanfare and barely noticed in the press, former Goldman exec Mario Draghi replaced Jean-Claude Trichet as head of the ECB.  Draghi wasted no time doing for the banks what the ECB has refused to do for its member governments—lavish money on them at very cheap rates.  French blogger Simon Thorpe reports:

On the 21st of December, the ECB "lent" 489 billion euros to European Banks at the extremely generous rate of just 1% over 3 years.  I say "lent", but in reality, they just ran the printing presses. The ECB doesn't have the money to lend. It's Quantitative Easing again.

The money was gobbled up virtually instantaneously by a total of 523 banks. It's complete madness. The ECB hopes that the banks will do something useful with it – like lending the money to the Greeks, who are currently paying 18% to the bond markets to get money. But there are absolutely no strings attached. If the banks decide to pay bonuses with the money, that's fine. Or they might just shift all the money to tax havens.
At 18% interest, debt doubles in just four years.  It is this onerous interest burden, not the debt itself, that is crippling Greece and other debtor nations.  Thorpe proposes the obvious solution:

Why not lend the money to the Greek government directly? Or to the Portuguese government, currently having to borrow money at 11.9%? Or the Hungarian government, currently paying 8.53%. Or the Irish government, currently paying 8.51%? Or the Italian government, who are having to pay 7.06%?
The stock objection to that alternative is that Article 123 of the Lisbon Treaty prevents the ECB from lending to governments.  But Thorpe reasons:

My understanding is that Article 123 is there to prevent elected governments from abusing Central Banks by ordering them to print money to finance excessive spending. That, we are told, is why the ECB has to be independent from governments. OK. But what we have now is a million times worse. The ECB is now completely in the hands of the banking sector. "We want half a billion of really cheap money!!" they say.  OK, no problem. Mario is here to fix that. And no need to consult anyone. By the time the ECB makes the announcement, the money has already disappeared.
At least if the ECB was working under the supervision of elected governments, we would have some influence when we elect those governments. But the bunch that now has their grubby hands on the instruments of power are now totally out of control.

"Goldman Sachs and the financial technocrats have taken over the European ship.  Democracy has gone out the window, all in the name of keeping the central bank independent from the 'abuses' of government."

Goldman Sachs and the financial technocrats have taken over the European ship.  Democracy has gone out the window, all in the name of keeping the central bank independent from the "abuses" of government.  Yet the government is the people—or it should be.  A democratically elected government represents the people.  Europeans are being hoodwinked into relinquishing their cherished democracy to a rogue band of financial pirates, and the rest of the world is not far behind.

Rather than ratifying the draconian ESM treaty, Europeans would be better advised to reverse article 123 of the Lisbon treaty.  Then the ECB could issue credit directly to its member governments.  Alternatively, Eurozone governments could re-establish their economic sovereignty by reviving their publicly-owned central banks and using them to issue the credit of the nation for the benefit of the nation, effectively interest-free.  This is not a new idea but has been used historically to very good effect, e.g. in Australia through the Commonwealth Bank of Australia and in Canada through the Bank of Canada.

Today the issuance of money and credit has become the private right of vampire rentiers, who are using it to squeeze the lifeblood out of economies.  This right needs to be returned to sovereign governments.  Credit should be a public utility, dispensed and managed for the benefit of the people.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on April 20, 2012, 03:14:50 PM
More good news for the Germans

As Germany insists that Greece submit to harsh austerity measures leaving pensions cut, unemployment soaring and the healthcare system slashed, one area it believes needn't be cut is Greece's weapons purchases, provided in great part by and benefiting Germany.

The Guardian's Helena Smith reports from Athens that both Germany and France, while pushing Greece to make cuts to its healthcare program, were trying to seal lucrative arms deals with the country.

Smith writes: "Speculation is rife that international aid for the country was contingent on Greece following through on agreements to purchase military hardware from Germany and France."

Greek profligacy may be blamed for triggering the debt crisis that now threatens to tear the eurozone apart, but if there is one area where Berlin is less excoriating of state largesse it is in Athens' extravagant taste for arms.

Behind the frequent exhortations that Greece rein in spending after living "beyond its means" – admonishments made most loudly by Merkel and her finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble – there is another reality that paints Germany in a less than flattering light, according to MPs, military experts, economists and scholars.

"If there is one country that has benefited from the huge amounts Greece spends on defence it is Germany," said Dimitris Papadimoulis, an MP with the Coalition of the Radical Left party.

"Just under 15% of Germany's total arms exports are made to Greece, its biggest market in Europe," Papadimoulis said, reeling off figures from a scruffy armchair in his party's parliamentary office. "Greece has paid over €2bn for submarines that proved to be faulty and which it doesn't even need," he said.

"It owes another €1bn as part of the deal. That's three times the amount Athens was asked to make in additional pension cuts to secure its latest EU aid package."

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) France is not far behind. Some 10% of its total arms sales go to NATO-member Greece. From 2002 to 2006, Greece was the world's fourth biggest importer of conventional weapons. It now holds 10th place.

"As a proportion of GDP, Greece spends twice as much as any other EU member on defence," said Papadimoulis, who is also a former MEP.

"Well after the economic crisis had begun, Germany and France were trying to seal lucrative weapons deals even as they were pushing us to make deep cuts in areas like health."

Under the latest EU-IMF sponsored rescue program – which is propping up the near-bankrupt Greek economy with an extra €130bn in emergency loans until 2015 – Athens has agreed to pare back defence expenditure by €400m. But even with such cutbacks, its military budget still accounts for nearly 4% of national economic output compared to the eurozone average of around 2%.

Speculation is rife that international aid for the country was contingent on Greece following through on agreements to purchase military hardware from Germany and France.

Given Greece's parlous financial predicament – illuminated last week by IMF managing director Christine Lagarde's refusal to rule out a default by Athens – growing numbers have begun to question the probity of the nation's defence expenditure.

As the crisis was unraveling, deputy prime minister Theodore Pangalos publicly rued the fact that Athens was spending so much money on arms, exclaiming during a visit to the Greek capital by the Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, that Greece was being "forced to buy weapons we do not need".

No other area has contributed as heavily to the country's debt mountain. If Athens had scaled back defence spending to levels similar to other EU member states over the past decade, economists claim it would have saved around €150bn – more than its last bailout. Instead, Greece dedicates up to €7bn a year to military expenditure – down from a high of €10bn in 2009.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on April 23, 2012, 09:44:12 AM
European Investment Bank includes 'Drachma clauses' in new contracts.

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite2_1_21/04/2012_438736 (http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite2_1_21/04/2012_438736)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on April 23, 2012, 10:21:32 AM
Interesting one muppet. Have we restarted the presses out in Sandyford ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on April 23, 2012, 12:56:41 PM
Morgan Kelly May 2010
Morgan Kelly, professor of economics at UCD (University College Dublin) says in a recent paper, Whatever happened to Ireland?, that adding Irish bank losses to its national debt will leave Ireland in 2012 with a debt-GDP ratio of 115%. But if looking at the ratio in terms of GNP, which gives a more realistic picture of the Ireland's discretionary tax base, this is a debt-GNP ratio of 140% - - above the ratio that is currently sinking Greece.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0423/banks-contribute-to-higher-deficit-for-2011.html - The real figure concerning Ireland is that the budget deficit is 17% of GNP and the national debt is 140% of GNP. Crucifying to say the least.

Shure why would we have listened to this fella didn't he get everything wrong?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on April 23, 2012, 06:16:21 PM
http://www.economonitor.com/analysts/2012/04/23/spain-following-in-irelands-footsteps/ (http://www.economonitor.com/analysts/2012/04/23/spain-following-in-irelands-footsteps/)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: thejuice on April 23, 2012, 11:19:46 PM
Should we consider postponing the referendum till after France has decided what way they are going to go? Especially now that the Dutch parliament has collapsed and the Czechs are in trouble too. Lets wait and hope someone else pulls the rug.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on April 24, 2012, 08:05:46 AM
QuoteShould we consider postponing the referendum till after France has decided what way they are going to go?

Definitely
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on April 24, 2012, 10:40:00 AM
Quote from: Declan on April 24, 2012, 08:05:46 AM
QuoteShould we consider postponing the referendum till after France has decided what way they are going to go?

Definitely

If Spain needs a bailout soon it might change things.

Our problem is that we need something to happen before the end of next year, or else we need a second bailout and will continue down the Greece road, albeit way behind them.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: seafoid on April 24, 2012, 11:12:05 AM
Quote from: muppet on April 24, 2012, 10:40:00 AM
Quote from: Declan on April 24, 2012, 08:05:46 AM
QuoteShould we consider postponing the referendum till after France has decided what way they are going to go?

Definitely

If Spain needs a bailout soon it might change things.

Our problem is that we need something to happen before the end of next year, or else we need a second bailout and will continue down the Greece road, albeit way behind them.
Ireland will probably need a second bailout once the first runs out but things are better than Greece.
I'd say it will be more like the Hotel California until there is some smacht put on the budget deficit. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on April 24, 2012, 06:09:45 PM
http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2012/04/growth-will-save-us-you-bet/ (http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2012/04/growth-will-save-us-you-bet/)

QuoteThe CDS holdings of U.S. banks are almost three times as much as their $181 billion in direct lending to the five countries at the end of June [2011. The five countries being  Portugal, Italy Ireland, Greece and Spain]


If we and the others default the US banks will lose 3 times as much in CDSs as they will lose from the actual defaults. This is another example of the market gone mad. It is not merely the debts that would have to be written off that would be problem, it is the bets on them.

The US would probably invade if we defaulted, which come to think of it mightn't be a bad thing.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on April 24, 2012, 06:23:27 PM
Good God thats madness
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Croí na hÉireann on April 25, 2012, 02:46:28 PM
http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2012/04/24/thats-not-rain-thats-a-lie (http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2012/04/24/thats-not-rain-thats-a-lie)

QuoteMany years ago, this column argued that the euro would break up. Back then, I thought the break-up would be the likely upshot of a dramatic eurozone debt crisis. Now I am certain that this will come to pass.

Time to open the sterling accounts?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: seafoid on April 26, 2012, 11:04:23 AM
The Croke Park Agreement will have to be scrapped regardless but maybe there might be some light at the end of the tunnel for small businesses..


Time to say "basta" to austerity

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/dbea8c5c-8e34-11e1-b9ae-00144feab49a.html#axzz1srAdmpEc

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on April 27, 2012, 10:58:42 AM
Maybe this is the beginning of end of property crisis here:

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2012/0427/breaking16.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2012/0427/breaking16.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: ludermor on April 27, 2012, 11:49:20 AM
How does this work?
She bought a house for £245k
She handed the keys back to presumably the bank sold the house for £????k
She owes £170k ( does this include interest penalties etc??)
She will pay back £18k so bank 'loses' £152k.
Does that mean the bank sold the house for £75k ( less payment mades etc etc)
im confused.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: thejuice on May 02, 2012, 11:54:53 AM
It seems there has been a deliberate attempt by the government with the help of RTE and some papers to disguise the truth whether Ireland would be able to apply for a loan from the IMF even if we vote no.

so can we or not?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on May 02, 2012, 12:11:23 PM
Quoteso can we or not?

We can.
Vinnie had a good article on it in the Times here:
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2012/0502/1224315452125.html (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2012/0502/1224315452125.html)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: armaghniac on May 02, 2012, 12:46:20 PM
QuoteIt seems there has been a deliberate attempt by the government with the help of RTE and some papers to disguise the truth whether Ireland would be able to apply for a loan from the IMF even if we vote no.

This is a disingenuous. The question is not whether we can apply for a loan, it is whether we have any appreciable chance of getting it and on what terms. The IMF is not a charity and Ireland is not the only place seeking assistance. We have already borrowed more from the IMF than is usual (because the EU is effectively guaranteeing the loans). Without this Euro backstop, the IMF might give some emergency assistance, but not for long and not without forceful action to balance the books.

The odd thing about the referendum is that "No" is being advocated by people who want this to balancing of books to occur and the social welfare scroungers and public sector wasters to get their comeuppance. "No" is also being advocated by those who claim that it will allow business as usual in these sectors with no need for change or cutbacks. One or other is profoundly wrong.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: glens abu on May 09, 2012, 01:32:46 PM
skip to main | skip to sidebar HomeBelfast Media BlogsBelfastmedia.comBelfastPix.comContactLéargas
by Sinn Féin's Gerry Adams

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Wednesday, May 9, 2012
Where now for Europe? There have been a whole series of elections in European states in the last week. Voters in Britain, Italy, Greece, Germany and France have all gone to the polls. Most of the media focus has been on the electoral outcomes in France, with the election of a Socialist President Francois Hollande, and on Greece where the government parties saw their support sharply decline.

In effect the elections in France and Greece were referendums on the strategy of austerity which French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel championed and successfully imposed on the EU in the last two years – austerity lost!

The defeat of Sarkozy and of other conservative parties and governments is evidence of a tide of change that is taking place in many European countries.

Since the economic crisis gripped Europe the conservative governments that dominate the EU have pursued austerity policies. In March they agreed to the introduction of an Austerity (Fiscal Compact) Treaty.

The result of this ideological adherence to austerity has been a deepening of the economic and banking crisis within Europe. State deficits have increased, public services have been slashed, unemployment has soared and poverty has increased.

Nowhere has this been more apparent than in the south of Ireland. Since 2008 there have been five austerity budgets and €24.6 billion worth of cuts. Government growth predictions for the economy have had to be reduced time and time again. In that same period the Irish state has seen its exchequer deficit – which austerity was supposed to cut - double from €12.7 billion in 2008 to €24.9 billion in 2011.

At the same time the social and human consequences of the austerity policies pursued by the government has been grave. Almost 15% or half a million citizens are out of work; emigration is again widespread; huge cuts have been inflicted on health and education and other public services; and new taxes have added to the distress of households.

Ordinary citizens understand, better than the governments of Europe and the spin doctors of austerity that you can't cut your way out of a recession. Imposing deep cuts to public services; reducing wages and welfare payments, and imposing new taxes on low and middle income families in a recession just makes the recession worse.

Quite clearly austerity is not working. The election results across Europe are evidence that there is a ground swell of opinion among citizens now defiantly fighting back against austerity policies. They are voting out those politicians and parties pursuing austerity.

On May 31st citizens will have their opportunity to vote in a referendum. The choice before them is to either endorse austerity, by writing it into the constitution, or voting No and joining the growing European wide movement that is demanding an end to austerity, as well as investment in jobs and growth.

With the popular tide in Europe demanding jobs and in an effort not to be wrong footed by the growing opposition to austerity, Fine Gael, Labour and Fianna Fáil have rediscovered the importance of a jobs and growth strategy.

Monsieur Hollande is now flavour of the month for all three parties as they trip over each other rushing to declare their support for his position and some even claiming that they were saying all of this before he was!

Citizens will not be fooled by this. Or by the rhetoric. The truth is that prior to a succession of EU summits Sinn Féin urged the government to ensure that growth and jobs were at the heart of any subsequent agreement. It rejected this sensible approach.

On the contrary it chose to sign up to a Fiscal Compact Treaty that will lock this state into austerity policies for years to come and will see the government hand significant fiscal sovereignty over to bureaucrats in Europe.

Under the Troika deal the government and Fianna Fáil agreed to a bailout programme that commits this government to €8.6 billion of additional cuts for the next three years. Under the Austerity Treaty the work of reducing the structural deficit to 0.5% will mean more cuts of €6 billion. In addition the state has signed up to giving €11 billion to the European Stability Mechanism.

Where does the government plan to get this money? Thus far it has failed to say.

Of equal importance is the political direction the Austerity Treaty is taking. The head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi spelt it out last week. Speaking in Barcelona Draghi set out his vision for Europe in the next ten years. He said: "We want to have a fiscal union. We have to accept the delegation of fiscal sovereignty from the national governemnts to some form of central authority."

This means that the Irish government has chosen to go down a path which will lead to Europe deciding what our tax regime is; how much citizens will pay in taxes and how much is paid out on welfare to those in need.

Do Irish citizens want to be a province of a European super state where technocrats – who have taken a succession of bad decisions for Europe in recent years - take decisions for Irish citizens with no accountability?

So, where to now? Austerity is in retreat but conservative governments across Europe, and Enda Kenny, Eamon Gilmore and Micheál Martin, remain ideologically committed to austerity. The referendum on May 31st is an opportunity for Irish citizens to say enough and no more to austerity. Vote No for Jobs and investment in the economy.





Posted by Gerry Adams at 8:38 AM 0 comments 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on May 10, 2012, 11:37:44 AM
http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/germans-put-off-ratifying-eu-fiscal-treaty-193380.html (http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/germans-put-off-ratifying-eu-fiscal-treaty-193380.html)

Yet we carry on full steam ahead
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: thejuice on May 11, 2012, 05:20:54 PM
I've a few questions to ask if someone could take the time, I'd be grateful.

I'm curious to know what people think we actually are voting on. I know this sounds like a strange question. But for a start, this isn't a vote on whether we get austerity or not.

Austerity is now a given. €5000 will be taken from the pockets of every Irish adult over the next 3 years every year.

So are we voting against the government?

Do we want out of the €uro or even the EU?

Can we get a better deal?

Can we post-pone it?

The next question I have, and this is the crucial one. What does the final Union supposed to look like? How is it structured and funded?

As a peripheral nation can we rely on future funding from the countries that benefit the most from the EU. Basically Germany. Will it be an EU wide standard currency, taxes and wages. This is obviously going to benefit them, it would only make sense that they contribute to the poorer countries, to have an EU wide standard of living.

And not through borrowing. This is what a union is. Just like Northern Ireland nor Wales don't need to pay back the city of London for all the money to generates to keep them.

But is that what we are getting? Me thinks not since the Germans don't want it. They want a federation. So how then is any of this to our benefit to stay in?

Another question at a larger scale. The US, or it's banks have had a hand in the downfall of the €uro. Is a failing €uro exactly what the dollar needs. Did the USA feel its position as the de facto world trade currency under threat.

I think the big problem for Europe is that it hasn't really spelt out where its going and why should we (the people of Europe) stick by it. The useless assholes we elect can't give us a better answer than "Vote Yes for jobs" which doesn't ring through.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: armaghniac on May 11, 2012, 05:43:52 PM
QuoteThis means that the Irish government has chosen to go down a path which will lead to Europe deciding what our tax regime is; how much citizens will pay in taxes and how much is paid out on welfare to those in need.

Adams being careless with the truth, as usual.
Europe doesn't care how how much Irish citizens will pay in taxes and how much is paid out on welfare, provided that the former pays for the latter and the money is not borrowed.

QuoteWhere does the government plan to get this money? Thus far it has failed to say.

Where does Adams plan to get the money? Thus far he has failed to say.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: thejuice on May 15, 2012, 09:46:17 AM
Will be changing £1000 into €'s sometime this week. Need them in hand by Thursday. How low do you think it will drop.

On XE.com its at 1 GBP = 1.25128 EUR

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: seafoid on May 15, 2012, 10:52:35 AM
Maybe 1.24
I think a lot of carnage could be priced in already
plus the £ is no great shakes either at the moment
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Abble on May 15, 2012, 11:13:16 AM
Quote from: thejuice on May 15, 2012, 09:46:17 AM
Will be changing £1000 into €'s sometime this week. Need them in hand by Thursday. How low do you think it will drop.

On XE.com its at 1 GBP = 1.25128 EUR

how are you going about getting your currency converted as a matter of interest ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: The Hill is Blue on May 15, 2012, 06:25:56 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on May 11, 2012, 05:43:52 PM

Where does Adams plan to get the money? Thus far he has failed to say.

Have you not heard of the Provos' new strategy of the ballot box and the silver bullet?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: thejuice on May 16, 2012, 12:14:42 AM
Quote from: Abble on May 15, 2012, 11:13:16 AM
Quote from: thejuice on May 15, 2012, 09:46:17 AM
Will be changing £1000 into €'s sometime this week. Need them in hand by Thursday. How low do you think it will drop.

On XE.com its at 1 GBP = 1.25128 EUR

how are you going about getting your currency converted as a matter of interest ?

https://www.iceplc.com/

best rates I could find. £1 = €1.23
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Abble on May 16, 2012, 07:56:49 AM
Quote from: thejuice on May 16, 2012, 12:14:42 AM
Quote from: Abble on May 15, 2012, 11:13:16 AM
Quote from: thejuice on May 15, 2012, 09:46:17 AM
Will be changing £1000 into €'s sometime this week. Need them in hand by Thursday. How low do you think it will drop.

On XE.com its at 1 GBP = 1.25128 EUR

how are you going about getting your currency converted as a matter of interest ?

https://www.iceplc.com/

best rates I could find. £1 = €1.23

try 1 GBP = 1.25771 EUR on www.xe.com
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: thejuice on May 16, 2012, 09:02:43 AM
am I mistaken, but XE.com don't sell currency?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Abble on May 16, 2012, 10:39:32 AM
Quote from: thejuice on May 16, 2012, 09:02:43 AM
am I mistaken, but XE.com don't sell currency?

i think i spotted somewhere in there you can get currency converted via your bank a/c.
I'll get looking better later on
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: seafoid on May 16, 2012, 10:58:35 AM
Thejuice

I saw in the FT over the weekend that the markets don't think Greece will leave the Euro this week
and that some deal will be cobbled together so the exchange rate should be stable enough.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on May 16, 2012, 11:18:18 AM
All aboard the punt nua
http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/towns-retailers-willing-to-take-a-punt-to-boost-business-194080.html (http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/towns-retailers-willing-to-take-a-punt-to-boost-business-194080.html)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: thejuice on May 16, 2012, 11:24:52 AM
Towns in England which are part of the "transition movement" have been using their own local currency for the last few years.

It's been really successful where its been used.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on May 17, 2012, 11:52:26 AM
So today we have;
PARIS—France's new Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici Thursday said the government will push to renegotiate the European Union's fiscal compact on budget discipline.

"The treaty won't be ratified as it stands and it needs to be completed with an addition on growth," Moscovici said in an interview with local news channel BFM TV.e

Citigroup just said on bloomberg Spain WILL need a bailout by the end of the year. Not mincing words. Bankia just dropped by 25%.and have liabilities of almost €300 Billion.

CNBC is reporting Greece is limiting bank withdrawals to €50, not confirmed yet.


Everyone ready to vote??
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: ludermor on May 17, 2012, 11:55:41 AM
Quote from: thejuice on May 16, 2012, 09:02:43 AM
am I mistaken, but XE.com don't sell currency?
There are companies which use XE and the like to set their rates when exchanging money. I use www.transferwise.com and their rates are pretty dam close to them. They charge a fee per transaction ( only £1 at the minute)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: magpie seanie on May 17, 2012, 12:22:41 PM
Quote from: Declan on May 17, 2012, 11:52:26 AM
So today we have;
PARIS—France's new Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici Thursday said the government will push to renegotiate the European Union's fiscal compact on budget discipline.

"The treaty won't be ratified as it stands and it needs to be completed with an addition on growth," Moscovici said in an interview with local news channel BFM TV.e

Citigroup just said on bloomberg Spain WILL need a bailout by the end of the year. Not mincing words. Bankia just dropped by 25%.and have liabilities of almost €300 Billion.

CNBC is reporting Greece is limiting bank withdrawals to €50, not confirmed yet.


Everyone ready to vote??


There is only one way to vote on this. It's an insult to our intelligence and the parasites that masquerade as our government are showing their disdain for the general population by pursuing this.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: The Hill is Blue on May 18, 2012, 05:12:55 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on May 17, 2012, 12:22:41 PM
Quote from: Declan on May 17, 2012, 11:52:26 AM
So today we have;
PARIS—France's new Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici Thursday said the government will push to renegotiate the European Union's fiscal compact on budget discipline.

"The treaty won't be ratified as it stands and it needs to be completed with an addition on growth," Moscovici said in an interview with local news channel BFM TV.e

Citigroup just said on bloomberg Spain WILL need a bailout by the end of the year. Not mincing words. Bankia just dropped by 25%.and have liabilities of almost €300 Billion.

CNBC is reporting Greece is limiting bank withdrawals to €50, not confirmed yet.


Everyone ready to vote??


There is only one way to vote on this. It's an insult to our intelligence and the parasites that masquerade as our government are showing their disdain for the general population by pursuing this.

Indeed there is only one way to vote and that's - YES.

What Ireland and Europe needs now is fewer people throwing petrol on the fire - because it's not the bondholders who will get burned, it will be the ordinary people.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: armaghniac on May 18, 2012, 07:31:58 PM
Quotebecause it's not the bondholders who will get burned, it will be the ordinary people.

Ah but a few "rich" people might get burned too.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on May 23, 2012, 11:24:44 AM
As per the Waterford News &  Star  :D

(http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/attachment.php?attachmentid=206071&d=1337733332)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: magpie seanie on May 23, 2012, 02:51:42 PM
Quote from: The Hill is Blue on May 18, 2012, 05:12:55 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on May 17, 2012, 12:22:41 PM
Quote from: Declan on May 17, 2012, 11:52:26 AM
So today we have;
PARIS—France's new Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici Thursday said the government will push to renegotiate the European Union's fiscal compact on budget discipline.

"The treaty won't be ratified as it stands and it needs to be completed with an addition on growth," Moscovici said in an interview with local news channel BFM TV.e

Citigroup just said on bloomberg Spain WILL need a bailout by the end of the year. Not mincing words. Bankia just dropped by 25%.and have liabilities of almost €300 Billion.

CNBC is reporting Greece is limiting bank withdrawals to €50, not confirmed yet.


Everyone ready to vote??


There is only one way to vote on this. It's an insult to our intelligence and the parasites that masquerade as our government are showing their disdain for the general population by pursuing this.

Indeed there is only one way to vote and that's - YES.

What Ireland and Europe needs now is fewer people throwing petrol on the fire - because it's not the bondholders who will get burned, it will be the ordinary people.

Sure we all know the bondholders issue is over - they've all been paid. I hope you have a better grasp of the issues than that post betrays. Do you think voting yes will save ordinary people getting burned? We're getting burned already and it will get worse regardless before it gets better. Even if you believe in agreeing to the fiscal rules and the further control over our destiny we are relinquishing this treaty is incomplete as evidenced by Germany holding back from ratification. We should not be voting on something that is incomplete. VOTE NO.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Hereiam on May 23, 2012, 05:18:17 PM
What people need to understand is that the money that they have in their accounts doesn't actually exist. Its just a number on a piece of paper.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on May 24, 2012, 10:58:15 AM
http://seekingalpha.com/article/611851-whipsaw-wednesday-you-re-lucky-they-don-t-charge-you-to-take-your-money (http://seekingalpha.com/article/611851-whipsaw-wednesday-you-re-lucky-they-don-t-charge-you-to-take-your-money)

Read this and weep
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Dougal Maguire on May 24, 2012, 06:44:17 PM
What is the true value of the Euro? When the currency started a Euro was worth about 62 pence sterling, at its highest it was worth perhaps 1.10 sterling and now its about 80 pence. So in an ideal world what would be its right and proper value if that makes sense
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: armaghniac on May 24, 2012, 08:04:02 PM
Quoteat its highest it was worth perhaps 1.10 sterling

I think I missed that one.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Dougal Maguire on May 24, 2012, 09:53:53 PM
Christmas 2008. The year the Southerners were fighting out the back of Sainsbury's over pallets of beer.

I reckon the current rate must be just about right because if you use a 70cl bottle of Jameson on special offer as a guide you can currently buy one in Dunne's for 18 euro which converts to 12.40 sterling.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: ziggy90 on May 24, 2012, 09:58:30 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on May 24, 2012, 08:04:02 PM
Quoteat its highest it was worth perhaps 1.10 sterling

I think I missed that one.

I didn't. :(
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: armaghniac on May 25, 2012, 12:16:21 AM
QuoteChristmas 2008. The year the Southerners were fighting out the back of Sainsbury's over pallets of beer.

At that time the Euro was 96p, it never was worth more than sterling.

However, since then sterling inflation has been 12-13%, Irish inflation 2-3% and the Euro has gone from 96p to 80p or so. Prices have indeed equalised.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Wildweasel74 on May 25, 2012, 12:26:47 AM
a punt was worth £1.05 back round 1995/96 remember been in ballina fishing and they would not take pound coins as the punt was worth more, bet they wish they had the punt now!!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on May 25, 2012, 12:32:31 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on May 24, 2012, 08:04:02 PM
Quoteat its highest it was worth perhaps 1.10 sterling

I think I missed that one.

He is getting confused, that was the Irish Punt that got to that level.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on May 25, 2012, 12:39:14 AM
Quote from: Dougal Maguire on May 24, 2012, 09:53:53 PM
Christmas 2008. The year the Southerners were fighting out the back of Sainsbury's over pallets of beer.


Was it the Munster lads still celerating their Heineken Cup win that year, or were the Kerry and Waterford boys still drowning their sorrows?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: armaghniac on May 25, 2012, 12:44:05 AM
Quotea punt was worth £1.05 back round 1995/96

Of course the punt is still worth more than sterling. Proper order too.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Fear ón Srath Bán on May 25, 2012, 10:25:53 AM
(http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2012/5/22/1337724395805/Steve-Bell-23.05.2012--001.jpg)
(http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/About/General/2012/5/23/1337808347080/24.05.2012-Steve-Bell-on--002.jpg)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: thejuice on July 10, 2012, 09:43:23 AM
QuoteTime to stop recklessness and start taxing banks

FINTAN O'TOOLE

AS EUROPEAN Union finance ministers discuss ways of controlling reckless banks, a very simple logic applies. Reckless banking wrecks lives. Ireland has suffered proportionally more damage from reckless banking than any other society. Therefore Ireland is at the forefront of pressing for EU-wide measures to rein in reckless banking.

Right? Wrong.

Ireland is lining up with the City of London and its political allies to protect the interests of the most rapacious kind of banking. Michael Noonan is out there batting for the wide boys in their opposition to a financial transactions tax.

There is an overwhelming financial, economic and political case for a tax to be imposed on financial transactions such as the trading by banks of securities (shares and bonds) and derivatives such as options and credit default swaps. Financially, the banks have been bailed out by ordinary citizens at appalling costs. But instead of repaying these costs, banks, under the current regime, will actually pay less tax in coming years because they will be able to write off their losses.

A new form of taxation on banks is thus not at all a radical idea. It is merely a gesture towards financial recompense. The EU Commission estimates that a 0.1 per cent tax on securities transactions and a 1 per cent tax on derivatives would raise €57 billion annually – significantly less than the cost of the Irish bailout alone.

Economically, the case is equally obvious: taxation systems should discourage dangerous and unproductive activities. Anyone who doesn't know how dangerous and counterproductive the untrammelled growth of derivatives trading has been should go back to reading Thomas the Tank Engine.

From a political point of view, a financial transactions tax (FTT) is also crucial. Citizens have been abused, defrauded and robbed by banking systems that have ceased to fulfil their basic functions. (Literally so in the case of Ulster Bank, whose inability to give people access to their own money is emblematic of the wider shift of banking from service industry to get-rich-quick machine.) From the Dirt scandal here to the rigging of the interbank interest rates in London, citizens have had their noses rubbed in corruption and impunity. And they have been left with nothing but a seething awareness of their own powerlessness.

This aspect of the FTT is arguably more important even than the money itself. We're living through a crisis of democracy. On the one hand, we've never had more obvious need for functioning, powerful transnational democratic institutions that can act coherently in pursuit of a common interest. On the other, the institutions we do have – in this context those of the EU and euro zone – are patently lacking in democratic legitimacy.

The EU Commission, the European Parliament and many of the major EU governments (including France and Germany) are strongly in favour of an FTT. So are European citizens: the Eurobarometer survey shows 65 per cent support for an FTT. The financial sector is, of course, opposed. We have, therefore, a crucial test of wills between citizens and democratic institutions on the one side and the finance industry on the other.

If the EU institutions lose this fight on what is, after all, a very modest proposal, their remaining democratic legitimacy will be holed below the waterline. Conversely, if the banks can face down the EU on this one, their sense of impunity will be absolute and their recklessness will be redoubled.

Ireland, which has suffered so outrageously from the effects of reckless banking, has an overwhelming interest in seeing an FTT put in place. We also know from concrete experience exactly how disastrous the effects of pandering to finance industry lobbyists can be. To take just one currently resonant example, Seán Quinn's catastrophic accumulation of contracts for difference (CFDs) for Anglo Irish Bank shares, which helped to cost the Irish taxpayer €3 billion, would not have been possible if, as the Revenue proposed, CFDs had been taxed and therefore disclosed.

Why were they not taxed? Because the financial industry lobby kicked in and persuaded the then minister for finance, Brian Cowen, that doing so would harm the competitiveness of the Irish financial services industry.

Now, here we are again, with Michael Noonan taking the same industry line in opposing an FTT. He has lined up with George Osborne and the City of London against this very basic measure to impose some degree of social responsibility on a disastrously rapacious system. Why? Because, allegedly, the imposition of a transactions tax would cause banks to flee from the International Financial Services Centre.

In fact, the EU Commission's proposals specifically deal with the threat by banks that they would relocate: any bank dealing with any European clients, regardless of its physical location, would be subject to the FTT. In any event, however, Ireland has surely learned in the hardest way that the short-term benefits of catering to the most reckless sides of the finance industry are massively outweighed by the long-term costs. Ireland has learned – but the Government, it appears, has not. When a choice has to be made, it still speaks, not for citizens, but for the banks.


As some one said on Slugger, both the Nuclear industry and financial industry have the ability to cause wide scale devastation. One is regulated to the hilt and quite rightly, the other is not, and our politicians are compliant in keeping it that way.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Hardy on July 10, 2012, 12:58:20 PM
I'm slipping behind here on understanding what's going on with the EU, ECB, bailouts, bank v. sovereign, etc. One thing that's puzzling me is the widespread reporting that Ireland is going to negotiate to have a certain percentage (typically, it's reported as 40%) of the bank debt removed from the state's balance sheet. This is as a result of the agreement reached by the heads of government a few weeks ago that bank debt was to be separated from sovereign and the specific commitment that this would be retrospectively implemented for Ireland.

What I don't understand are two things:

1. Why are we having to negotiate it when it has already been agreed in principle. Surely all that's to negotiate is the mechanism and the detail?
2. More importantly, why are we talking about only having a percentage of the bank debt treated in this way? Why not all of it? As far as I understood, the communique on the agreement said all bank debt would be separated from sovereign. I didn't see anything about 40% or any other percentage, so why are we only looking for a 40% deal?

What am I missing?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: trueblue1234 on July 10, 2012, 01:00:35 PM
A comma or two but nothing to worry about.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: bcarrier on July 10, 2012, 01:06:19 PM
TBH I don't get that any amount of tax/levy will replace proper regulation.

Splitting the basic retail utility/retail function of the banks from their investment arms would achieve more than this tax imo. Banks need to be able to fail.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: bcarrier on July 10, 2012, 03:23:41 PM
Quote from: Hardy on July 10, 2012, 12:58:20 PM
I'm slipping behind here on understanding what's going on with the EU, ECB, bailouts, bank v. sovereign, etc. One thing that's puzzling me is the widespread reporting that Ireland is going to negotiate to have a certain percentage (typically, it's reported as 40%) of the bank debt removed from the state's balance sheet. This is as a result of the agreement reached by the heads of government a few weeks ago that bank debt was to be separated from sovereign and the specific commitment that this would be retrospectively implemented for Ireland.

What I don't understand are two things:

1. Why are we having to negotiate it when it has already been agreed in principle. Surely all that's to negotiate is the mechanism and the detail?
2. More importantly, why are we talking about only having a percentage of the bank debt treated in this way? Why not all of it? As far as I understood, the communique on the agreement said all bank debt would be separated from sovereign. I didn't see anything about 40% or any other percentage, so why are we only looking for a 40% deal?

What am I missing?

An interesting question Hardy. There is mention of a different 40% here and a bank bailout of 63Bn.

I
Quotet had long complained that the euro zone had unfairly obliged Irish taxpayers to shoulder most of the costs of rescuing formerly private banks when the country's bloated commercial property market crashed from 2008 onwards. Amounting to about 63 billion euros, or 40% of its annual economic output, Ireland faces one of the world's costliest bank rescues.
As those bank-rescue costs escalated, it was forced to strike a 67.5 billion euro bailout deal with the EU, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank, in late 2010.
Read more: http://www.foxbusiness.com/news/2012/07/01/ireland-aiming-high-in-euro-zone-talks-on-bank-debt-irish-dep-pm/#ixzz20EFKVDX3

The 63Bn also ties back to 32BN + 31BN numbers in the article below.
Quote
THE European Commission has confirmed that a deal to shift the burden of Ireland's bank debt off the government's books will be ready by October this year.
The deal, reached after a marathon nine-hour meeting, involves the eurozone's future rescue fund, the European Stability Mechanism, taking over Irish taxpayers' €32 billion euro stake in the banks. EU economics chief Olli Rehn said early today that the Commission would publish proposals in September and aim to get the agreement of Ireland's 16 eurozone partners by October.
"The Commission will take forward technical work on improving the sustainability of Ireland's well-performing adjustment programme, in particular as regards its financial sector, together with our partners in the troika," Mr Rehn said after the meeting with with eurozone finance ministers in Brussels. The October deadline enjoyed unanimous support amongst finance ministers at the meeting, Mr Rehn confirmed. "That's very positive," Mr Rehn added. "It's positive for Ireland, its chances of succeeding in its reform programme, and thus it's positive for the whole of Europe."
"We all know the issues and challenges as regards the Irish financial system and debt sustainability," Mr Rehn said. Restructuring talks are already underway on €31 billion in promissory notes issued by the government in 2010 to spread the cost of bailing out the former Anglo Irish Bank
.


My thinking if that 32Bn in indo article is correct and this is 40% then the total bank bailout must equal 80bn. 32Bn of this must still be sitting somewhere as equity or debt on bank balance sheets. This is the amount that is getting reallocated. The 31bn in Anglo is subject to some other discussion and maybe  another 17bn is already be gone perhaps in bondholder redemptions ? Namawinelake might have more time to get to botton of it  ;)


Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Hardy on July 10, 2012, 03:36:29 PM
That could be it, bcarrier. I don't understand, though, why the Anglo debt is being treated differently to the money invested in the other banks and why this wouldn't be included in the hand-off of bank debt. I know the funding mechanism is different for Anglo, but it's all debt incurred as a result of collapsed or potentially collapsed banks.

Speaking of Namawinelake, I see two of the most interesting commentators on this thread seem to have disappeared from here - Muppet and Bogball.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: fearglasmor on July 10, 2012, 05:12:50 PM
Quote from: Hardy on July 10, 2012, 12:58:20 PM
I'm slipping behind here on understanding what's going on with the EU, ECB, bailouts, bank v. sovereign, etc. One thing that's puzzling me is the widespread reporting that Ireland is going to negotiate to have a certain percentage (typically, it's reported as 40%) of the bank debt removed from the state's balance sheet. This is as a result of the agreement reached by the heads of government a few weeks ago that bank debt was to be separated from sovereign and the specific commitment that this would be retrospectively implemented for Ireland.

What I don't understand are two things:

1. Why are we having to negotiate it when it has already been agreed in principle. Surely all that's to negotiate is the mechanism and the detail?
2. More importantly, why are we talking about only having a percentage of the bank debt treated in this way? Why not all of it? As far as I understood, the communique on the agreement said all bank debt would be separated from sovereign. I didn't see anything about 40% or any other percentage, so why are we only looking for a 40% deal?

What am I missing?


On Morning Ireland this morning it was stated that the original announcement that Spain banks would be recapitalised directly instead of going through the Sovereign was now being reversed and that the money would after all be chanelled through the Spanish government. It was stated that Angela Merkel did not in fact give in as was suggested at the time and the Finland are adamant that they will not participate in funding other countries debts.

Theres a list of northern european countries including Germany, France, Holland, Finland who are actually being paid to borrow money from the markets while Spain has to pay 7% .

It seems to me that there is as much chance of EU wide fiscal or political integration as there is of Leitrim winning Sam next year.

NB  The punts have already been printed.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: CiKe on July 10, 2012, 07:09:03 PM
The thing with the FTT is that while all good in theory surely a lot of those costs will most likely be passed on to savers/investors somewhere? e.g lets say you have your current pension pot in cash and decide to invest in the market. Surely, reality is that whatever your size is, the pension fund is unlikely to deploy that 20k or 30k EUR or whatever the hell it is straight away due to operational hassle? Many PF's use derivatives for beta exposure in any case, so if you invest 20k or 30k in an MSCI benchmark and your PF's uses a deriv will the banks not just pass on the FTT to PF through higher swaps prices which then result in higher mgmt fees for the fund?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: bcarrier on July 11, 2012, 09:46:27 AM
Quote from: Hardy on July 10, 2012, 03:36:29 PM
That could be it, bcarrier. I don't understand, though, why the Anglo debt is being treated differently to the money invested in the other banks and why this wouldn't be included in the hand-off of bank debt. I know the funding mechanism is different for Anglo, but it's all debt incurred as a result of collapsed or potentially collapsed banks.

Speaking of Namawinelake, I see two of the most interesting commentators on this thread seem to have disappeared from here - Muppet and Bogball.

Namawinelake does indeed have a better explanation http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2012/07/09/a-glossary-to-help-explain-minister-noonans-negotiations-this-evening/

The word "spoofery" features prominently.

Agree that Muppet and Bogball were good posters here.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Hardy on July 11, 2012, 03:54:56 PM
It seems, from reading that article and its references and general scouting about, that you're right, bcarrier and the 40% figure being bandied about is not 40% of the cost of the bank bailout but the 40 PERCENTAGE POINTS (not percent) of Debt/GDP that the €64Bn-odd bank bailout represents.

So the government is looking for the whole €64Bn to be taken off the state debt, reducing the state's Debt/GDP ratio from about 120% to about 80%. Of course, the innumerate media, even those presenting themselves as financial analysts, present this as a 40% cut in Debt/GDP. It's not – it's a 33% cut.

Note that it seems the government is only looking to have the €64Bn direct bank recapitalisation cost shifted, not the total bailout cost, which comes to an estimated €87.1Bn, when you include interest on the promissory notes and the overpayment made by NAMA vs. market value for the bank loans (see below).

Whether they'll get it, or anything at all, seems to be up for discussion now, with noises coming out of Germany saying, "What? Are you mad? Where did you get the idea that we were going to take the bank debt off your sovereign? Shag off!"

I've tried to gather together in one place the headline figures and considerations in the bailout/debt situation. Here they are, for what it's worth (all figures, except percentages, in billions):

Debt and GDP
National debt 2011   174.0
National debt 2013 (projected)  198.1
Nominal GDP 2011   156.1
Nominal GDP 2013 (projected)  167.4
Debt/GDP 2013   111%
Debt/GDP 20132013 (projected)   118%

Banks recapitalisation
AIB/EBS   20.80
BOI   4.70
IL&P   4.00
Anglo/INBS   34.70
Total   64.20  (A)

Additional costs of bank bailout
NAMA "state aid"   5.60  (B)
Interest on promissory notes  17.30  (C)

Grand total cost of bank bailout
87.10   (A+B+C)

State shareholding in banks
AIB/EBS   99.8%
BOI   15%
IL&P   99%
Anglo/INBS   100%

Possible  value to the state of these shareholdings
AIB/EBS/BOI  9.40
IL&P   ?
Anglo/INBS   4.00

Bondholders
We have paid off most of the bondholders, but there are still "billions" – I can't find out how much - due to AIB and BOI bondholders and €160 million due to Anglo bondholders.

Ireland's contribution to ESM
1.27 Bn (1.5% of an initial 80 Bn). Germany contributes 27%.

NAMA
NAMA paid €32Bn to the banks for loans denominated as worth €74Bn, but with a calculated market value of €26.3Bn. The €5.6Bn above market value is deemed as "state aid". Effectively, this increases the state's contribution to the banks from €64.2Bn to €69.8Bn.

It is intended NAMA will break even by the time it is wound up in 2020. This depends on a recovery in the property market. Property values in Ireland have declined by 20-30% since NAMA valued the loans it bought from the banks (at €5.6 Bn above their then estimated market value).

NAMA's running costs are €700m per annum - operating costs, professional fees and the interest on its NAMA bonds. The state has guaranteed the NAMA bonds, so if NAMA hasn't made a profit or broken even by 2020, then the State will incur the loss. 

Promissory Notes
€30.7Bn of the €34.7n Anglo/INBS bailout was in the form of IOUs from the government - "promissory notes". The ECB insisted that the IOUs would incur interest, which means that we're not just paying the €31bn of IOUs but, under the present promissory note conditions, another €14bn of interest. We're paying the interest to IBRC which we 100% own so the interest isn't important. But we borrow the funds to pay the €31bn, so the interest we pay on that IS important.

A lot of work has already been done on the promissory notes to find a way of re-engineering them. Currently, the State must pay €3bn a year in interest payments, which will fall to €1.8bn from next year, bringing the total cost of interest on the promissory notes over their lifetime to about €17.3 Bn.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: thejuice on July 17, 2012, 10:29:02 PM
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2174785/David-Bagley-HSBC-chief-quits-U-S-Senate-committee-bank-accused.html

The City of London is awash with filthy money. it seems it ends up with mexican drugs gangs and saudi terrorists.

but don't expect anyone going to jail.

The UK economy is a bit of a paper tiger. or more accurately, toilet paper.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Hereiam on July 24, 2012, 11:29:05 PM
Just watched "inside job" this evening and really wished i hadn't. Just signed up to a 30yr mortgage and I now realise that this was a mistake and that people/companies are willing me to default on this so they can make money.....what have i done?????
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: screenexile on July 25, 2012, 12:16:28 AM
f**king Exchange Rate has gone to the dogs now as well. We get a lot of stock from UK and the weak Euro is bloody crippling at the minute.

Does anyone who knows anything about these things have an idea when it will improve??
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: armaghniac on July 26, 2012, 06:24:44 PM
NTMA hails bond switch and sale a success

Investors have committed a total of €5.23 billion into longer-dated bonds maturing in 2017 and 2020.

The NTMA says of this, some €4.19 billion was new money for the purchase of the two longer-term bonds on offer - a new 5 year bond maturing in October 2017 and an existing bond maturing in October 2020.

A further €1.04 billion was for the exchange of their holdings of the shorter-dated 2013 and 2014 bonds into the 2017 and 2020 bonds.

The 2017 bond carried a yield of 5.9% and the 2020 bond a yield of 6.1%. The weighted-average yield on the combined transaction was 5.95%.

Speaking today, NTMA Chief Executive John Corrigan said: "We are very pleased with the success of today's transaction, particularly the fact that investors committed more than €4 billion of new money to our first long-term issuance since September 2010.

"This marks a very significant step for Ireland on the way to full bond market access. As a result of today's transaction, the NTMA has now covered a significant proportion of the €8.2 billion bond maturing in January 2014 which up until now has been seen as a challenging "funding cliff," he added.

It marked Ireland's re-entry to the primary market with longer term bonds for the first time since the EU/IMF bailout in 2010.

The Minister for Finance Michael Noonan said our return to the bond markets this afternoon was not earlier than he had expected.

Mr Noonan said he indicated on a number of occasions in the past that we would dip our toes in the markets in the summer of 2012.

He did not want to make any further comment which might influence the sale until it was complete.

The Secretary General of the Department of Finance has described today as a very good day for the Irish economy.

John Moran said that "what we wanted to gauge was not just how much people would roll over their positions but would actually want to come back in, which is really selling to new investors."

He also said the figure of €4.19 billion was a very satisfactory result.
   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: LeoMc on October 01, 2012, 11:00:12 AM
With talk of the UK withdrawing from the EU and the continued weakness of the Euro against Sterling is there any benefit to Ireland in jumping ship also and pegging an Punt Nua to their major trading partner?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Rossfan on October 01, 2012, 01:36:59 PM
No.
And the YUKs won't leave the EU either because they'd have no one to buy their stuff.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Hardy on October 19, 2012, 03:05:08 PM
Merkel pulls the rug from under Kenny.

Enda came home from Brussels happy that the June deal was endorsed and it's hard to blame him, given the wording that "the spirit" of the June deal was to be respected. This "spirit" included an understanding that there was an opportunity for  retrospective recapitalisation of the Irish banks by the new ESM.

But, today, Merkel came out baldly to say "There will not be any back-dated direct recapitalisation" of eurozone banks ...and... "If recapitalisation is possible, it will only be possible for the future." (http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/1019/eu-bank-supervision.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/1019/eu-bank-supervision.html))

I know she has both eyes on domestic politics at the moment, but this is not on. Watch Ireland's bond yields jump today after this.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: armaghniac on October 19, 2012, 03:41:07 PM
QuoteWatch Ireland's bond yields jump today after this.

In some ways it would be better if they did. It might be no harm to get across the message that this deal would allow Ireland return to the markets, which would not be possible without it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on October 19, 2012, 03:44:50 PM
Enda and Baldy would be f**k all use in a game of poker that's for sure
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Billys Boots on October 19, 2012, 03:55:25 PM
Should we be inviting Bertie and his cohorts back to represent us?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on October 19, 2012, 04:06:40 PM
QuoteShould we be inviting Bertie and his cohorts back to represent us?

Jaysus Billy stop will you
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Tubberman on October 19, 2012, 04:27:04 PM
Quote from: Hardy on October 19, 2012, 03:05:08 PM
Merkel pulls the rug from under Kenny.

Enda came home from Brussels happy that the June deal was endorsed and it's hard to blame him, given the wording that "the spirit" of the June deal was to be respected. This "spirit" included an understanding that there was an opportunity for  retrospective recapitalisation of the Irish banks by the new ESM.

But, today, Merkel came out baldly to say "There will not be any back-dated direct recapitalisation" of eurozone banks ...and... "If recapitalisation is possible, it will only be possible for the future." (http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/1019/eu-bank-supervision.html (http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/1019/eu-bank-supervision.html))

I know she has both eyes on domestic politics at the moment, but this is not on. Watch Ireland's bond yields jump today after this.

Their long-term game to create a German empire is getting closer all the time.
Heil!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on December 28, 2012, 02:09:38 PM
It seems this Euro crisis is going to run and run.

Next up we have Italy even though Spain hasn't even started to deal with its problems.

Italy has elections in February where word is Berlusconi will try to regain power on a populist manifesto. Apparently this may involve a promise to pull Italy out of the Euro. That will set the cat among the already nervous pigeons.

While that might sound mad remember Mr. Bunga controls the majority of the Italian media.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Denn Forever on January 09, 2013, 11:09:49 AM
Could we sue?

AIG is considering whether to join a lawsuit against the government that spent $182bn (£115bn) to save it from collapse.

American International Group said its board of directors will weigh whether to take part in a shareholder lawsuit against the US over the government's bailout of the New York-based insurer.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/jan/09/aig-lawsuit-us-government-bailout
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on January 09, 2013, 07:56:16 PM
Quote from: Denn Forever on January 09, 2013, 11:09:49 AM
Could we sue?

AIG is considering whether to join a lawsuit against the government that spent $182bn (£115bn) to save it from collapse.

American International Group said its board of directors will weigh whether to take part in a shareholder lawsuit against the US over the government's bailout of the New York-based insurer.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/jan/09/aig-lawsuit-us-government-bailout

This is more like Anglo's shareholders suing for not being compensated enough by the Government for their worthless shares.

If we sued we should look at Lenihan's assurances that the Bank Guarantee was needed because of a liquidity problem and that it was not a solvency one. He was wrong but what information was he acting upon? Who lied?? Did the banks seek and get the guarantee under false pretences? Or did the Government lie to us? And even if we can prove we were lied to can we withdraw from the guarantee and get money back?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: seafoid on January 09, 2013, 08:33:34 PM
Quote from: muppet on January 09, 2013, 07:56:16 PM
Quote from: Denn Forever on January 09, 2013, 11:09:49 AM
Could we sue?

AIG is considering whether to join a lawsuit against the government that spent $182bn (£115bn) to save it from collapse.

American International Group said its board of directors will weigh whether to take part in a shareholder lawsuit against the US over the government's bailout of the New York-based insurer.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/jan/09/aig-lawsuit-us-government-bailout
Who would you sue, Muppet ? The government is broke. Borrowing 15bn a year or whatever.
Maybe sue the consultants...

This is more like Anglo's shareholders suing for not being compensated enough by the Government for their worthless shares.

If we sued we should look at Lenihan's assurances that the Bank Guarantee was needed because of a liquidity problem and that it was not a solvency one. He was wrong but what information was he acting upon? Who lied?? Did the banks seek and get the guarantee under false pretences? Or did the Government lie to us? And even if we can prove we were lied to can we withdraw from the guarantee and get money back?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on January 09, 2013, 08:52:43 PM
Quote from: seafoid on January 09, 2013, 08:33:34 PM
Quote from: muppet on January 09, 2013, 07:56:16 PM
Quote from: Denn Forever on January 09, 2013, 11:09:49 AM
Could we sue?

AIG is considering whether to join a lawsuit against the government that spent $182bn (£115bn) to save it from collapse.

American International Group said its board of directors will weigh whether to take part in a shareholder lawsuit against the US over the government's bailout of the New York-based insurer.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/jan/09/aig-lawsuit-us-government-bailout
Who would you sue, Muppet ? The government is broke. Borrowing 15bn a year or whatever.
Maybe sue the consultants...


This is more like Anglo's shareholders suing for not being compensated enough by the Government for their worthless shares.

If we sued we should look at Lenihan's assurances that the Bank Guarantee was needed because of a liquidity problem and that it was not a solvency one. He was wrong but what information was he acting upon? Who lied?? Did the banks seek and get the guarantee under false pretences? Or did the Government lie to us? And even if we can prove we were lied to can we withdraw from the guarantee and get money back?

I'd suggest we would sue to remove liabilities, e.g. the Promo.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on January 10, 2013, 12:26:03 AM
Well done to Obama, more or less telling the UK they are a nobody if they aren't in the European Union. Lets hope China, India and Brazil tell them the same in the next few weeks.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on January 17, 2013, 12:32:19 AM
Obama made the following statement in a speech in september 2007:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/17/us/politics/16text-obama.html?pagewanted=print&_r=0 (http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/17/us/politics/16text-obama.html?pagewanted=print&_r=0)

(No one can make sound financial judgement) "if the information is flawed, if there is fraud or if the risks facing financial institutions are not fully disclosed."

This might appear to state the obvious but it is a pity Brian Lenihan and the rest of the Dáil didn't listen 12 months later.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on January 21, 2013, 08:18:53 AM
Gene Kerrigan: Our plea for sanity falling on deaf ears

Sunday January 20 2013

His voice carried in its very timbre the burden of great responsibility. His words raised immeasurable hope within his listeners. Abraham Lincoln spoke of a whole continent alive with possibilities. "We must work hard and together," he said, "to renovate, to restore and to renew our Union . . . It is in that spirit of doing, that spirit of renewing, that Ireland . . ."

Oops, sorry. My desktop's a mess and I've mixed up my Abraham and my Enda speeches. Easy to do. Our Glorious Leader was in fine form last week, as he lauded "the spirit of doing". He stood in front of the European Parliament and emoted in all directions about how "our Atlantic island" has "long been at the heart of Europe". Mr Kenny spoke of how "in the sixth and seventh centuries our monks, Columbanus and Killian among their number, left in their small boats to bring the light of learning to the European mind".

No harm reminding those French savages that it was the Irish who raised them from the muck and taught them the difference between Merlot and Sauvignon. And we're not done yet with civilising them. "Today Ireland keeps that faith with our continent, with our Union of peoples . . ."

And so on, and on, and on. No one remembers who held the presidency of the EU last year or the year before – but when it's Ireland's turn to call meetings to order, and to serve the tea and biscuits, our politicians cream themselves with pride. Filling a routine administrative function, they emote as though they've won an Oscar, an Olympic Gold, or seven Tours de France in a row.

Enda Lincoln was even inspired by that uplifting Irish Times TV advert, in which an intrepid reporter walks through a wall, and crawls under floorboards in search of "why". We must, said Enda, "be ready to argue the very 'Why?' of Europe".

He spoke – I kid you not – of how the Irish economy is growing, exports are booming, the money markets are rushing to lend us cash. Apparently, things are going tremendously well in this great little nation. So well, in fact, that in his spare time Enda hopes to play a part in ending "global poverty and hunger". And in "bringing peace to troubled regions such as Syria, Iran, Mali and Somalia".

It's not that there aren't some problems here at home. "Our proud people continue to labour under the weight of bank-related debt." Ah, says I to myself. Here it comes. He's going to start kicking shins. Abraham Kenny is about to demand that his people be set free from the appalling bank debt slavery that has been forced upon them.

"Austerity has brought pain and suffering to many families, many homes," he said. And immediately, in case the EU politicians thought he was complaining, he added: "But the Irish people have borne that weight, that pain, with remarkable courage and patience and quiet dignity."

Not to mention dread and despair and fearful passivity.

While Enda was telling the EU parliament about the submissiveness of "our proud people", back home some economists were totting up a few figures. Trade union researcher Michael Taft was sifting through data from Eurostat, the EU's official repository of statistics. What's the effect of the banking collapse on general government budgets?

Taft produced, on his blog, Notes On The Front, a table to show that those generous Germans have contributed no less than €40bn to saving the banks. A whole 1.5 per cent of their GDP. God bless you, Frau Merkel.

And Ireland? Well, Germany is a whale of an economy – we're just a shrimp. Yet Taft's figures show we've been saddled with private bank debts of €41bn – a whopping 25 per cent of GDP. (This isn't counting other costs, such as the asset-stripping of the National Pension Reserve Fund).


Figures for other countries are tiny (the UK, for instance, is next in line, at €11bn. Ireland, Taft shows, is paying for 42 per cent of the European private bank bailout. But, of course, we're doing so with "remarkable courage and patience and quiet dignity".

Can't be right, says I to myself. This Taft lad is a whizz with figures and I'm not, but that sounds – well, outrageous. So, against my better nature, I pored through the Eurostat Supplementary Table for the Financial Crisis.

Page 8: "Overall, the most significant increase in deficit due to government interventions in financial institutions is noted for Ireland." The Supplementary Table uses percentage points (pp) to measure effect on GDP.

For "Germany, Latvia, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, Slovenia and the United Kingdom, the deficit increased . . . from around 0.5 pp to 3 pp over the reference period" of 2007-11. "Spain and Lithuania also reported a negative impact, but for smaller amounts."

So, the maximum cost to EU countries was 3 percentage points of GDP, or less. And Ireland, with its "proud people" and their "remarkable courage and patience and quiet dignity"? The Supplementary Table shows that bailing out our bankers and bondholders has cost us 26 percentage points of GDP.

Meanwhile, economist Constantin Gurdgiev has been crunching some CSO numbers on per capita income, and posting the results on his blog, True Economics. In 2011, "Irish per capita national disposable income . . . was down 20.2 per cent on peak levels and was below 1998-1999 average". Disposable incomes at 1999 levels. And expected to remain so.

He adds: "Ireland's real economy has already lost not a decade but over 14 years worth of growth." Projections for income growth suggest the so-called lost decade will in Ireland's case run "between 16 and 20 years".

Now, for us, with our remarkable courage, patience and quiet dignity, austerity means many injuries and indignities. The old, the sick, the young – they've all had their pockets picked. Let's take one such scandal – cochlear implants.

Medical science is truly wonderful – kids who would previously have grown up deaf can now have cochlear implants that restore their hearing. A human achievement truly to be proud of.

Unfortunately, the HSE is short of money – much as they'd like, they can only give the toddlers one cochlear implant each. Now, with only one ear functioning, ambient noise prevents the kids hearing properly – they can't work out the direction sound is coming from. Little kids need to hear properly in order to learn how to speak.

This is truly rotten. And the parents and the doctors and the HSE all want the best for the kids – but, hey, if we're going to meet those troika targets and keep our position as the biggest bank-bailer-outers in Europe, y'know, something's got to give.

Those kids suffered a random natural injury that limits their lives – and medical science fought back, and gives them an equal chance with the rest of us – and, well, the State can't do everything. It can't bail out bankers and bondholders and kids with hearing problems. The buck's got to stop with someone – sorry, kids.

Anyway, in their silent world, those children will, I'm sure, make Enda proud – with their remarkable courage, patience and quiet dignity.

And our main national discussion is still about abortion - Jaysus it's enough to make you go back on the drink before the end of January
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: seafoid on January 21, 2013, 02:11:11 PM
Mickey Harte wades in on abortion


http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2013/0121/1224329103032.html

"There was, he said "no issue more important than the protection of human life. There's no point in saving the economy if a child's right to life is compromised or forgotten".


What if saving the economy resulted in 600 adult suicides less per year ?   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: trileacman on January 21, 2013, 05:46:43 PM
Quote from: seafoid on January 21, 2013, 02:11:11 PM
Mickey Harte wades in on abortion


http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2013/0121/1224329103032.html

"There was, he said "no issue more important than the protection of human life. There's no point in saving the economy if a child's right to life is compromised or forgotten".


What if saving the economy resulted in 600 adult suicides less per year ?
And that's a quote from who?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: seafoid on January 21, 2013, 07:33:14 PM
Quote from: trileacman on January 21, 2013, 05:46:43 PM
Quote from: seafoid on January 21, 2013, 02:11:11 PM
Mickey Harte wades in on abortion


http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2013/0121/1224329103032.html

"There was, he said "no issue more important than the protection of human life. There's no point in saving the economy if a child's right to life is compromised or forgotten".


What if saving the economy resulted in 600 adult suicides less per year ?
And that's a quote from who?
from myself . I think that notion is grossly insensitive to the families of everyone lost to suicide as a result of the financial crisis . And Irish economic history . Presumably the famine was preferable to a few terminations as well . Mickey is à great bunch of lads  but that line is nuts.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: mouview on January 21, 2013, 08:31:42 PM
Quote from: Declan on January 21, 2013, 08:18:53 AM
Gene Kerrigan: Our plea for sanity falling on deaf ears

Sunday January 20 2013



etc.

Blah blah blah. Typical Sindo, week in , week out, giving out about the government in place, telling them what to do, being wise after the event. Never a mention of their own multifarious shortcomings, never giving credit where it's due. A complete rag at this stage.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: seafoid on January 21, 2013, 08:57:24 PM
Quote from: mouview on January 21, 2013, 08:31:42 PM
Quote from: Declan on January 21, 2013, 08:18:53 AM
Gene Kerrigan: Our plea for sanity falling on deaf ears

Sunday January 20 2013



etc.

Blah blah blah. Typical Sindo, week in , week out, giving out about the government in place, telling them what to do, being wise after the event. Never a mention of their own multifarious shortcomings, never giving credit where it's due. A complete rag at this stage.
their coverage of the derek quinlan / paddy mckillen court case was the ultimate in brown nosing
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on January 22, 2013, 11:30:05 AM
QuoteTypical Sindo, week in , week out, giving out about the government in place, telling them what to do, being wise after the event.

If you read Kerrigan over the years you'd know that he's the complete opposite to the Sindo's usual editorial line.
Being wise after the event - nonsense. He's been consistent in his views for as long as I've seen his columns
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on January 24, 2013, 11:00:58 AM
http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2013/01/currency-wars-their-imperial-aspect/ (http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2013/01/currency-wars-their-imperial-aspect/)

Currency Wars – their Imperial aspect

by Golem XIV on JANUARY 21, 2013 in LATEST
A quick thought about the money printing and currency wars.

When the current and on-going bank debt crisis began in 2007 we were told that the answer was to print up money (call it QE or 'borrowing' if it makes you happy) and give it to the banks. This would, we were assured, relieve the purely short-term cash and collateral shortage the banks appeared to be suffering, and once it did that the banks would be able to return to lending to the the real economy and we would all be saved. They printed. They gave it to the banks and...nothing happened.Except that it all got worse.

The banks got the money. But they did not lend to the real economy. Much of the cash they received, they parked straight back in the central banks where they were paid interest on it – by us.  Some was used as cash flow to pay bills. The rest, a growing amount, was used for speculation. Either by lending it to speculators or by the banks making it available to their own internal Prop. trading desk where they could speculate with it themselves.

Which was lovely if you were a banker but it did also mean that when the bankers needed more money and more had to be printed, there was a problem with justifying it. At first the bankers and our rulers tried to brazen it out and claimed we just hadn't printed enough the first time, or the second, and a bit of belt tightening and a dose of 'we're all in it together' cap touching and forelock tugging, as we handed our betters some more cash, would do the trick this time. Only it didn't.

Then something new entered the story. Instead of being forced into talking about the failure of what they had done, our leaders began to point to other countries who had been printing and claimed that while we were printing in order to help our banks lend and help the rest of us, 'they', those johnny-foreigners, were printing in order to devalue their currency against ours. And although no one actually said so, there was the handy, albeit unspoken implication that perhaps the reason our printing hadn't worked was because some countries, mentioning no names – oh all right then, China and Japan! –  were undermining all our otherwise brilliant efforts with their dastardly and selfish currency manipulation!

We were printing to help our banks help us. They were currency manipulators.

We seemed to slide from a world of central banks taking 'coordinated and heroic emergency actions' to a world where the same printing, when done by foreigners, was now reported as a 'race to the  bottom' of 'beggar they neighbor' devaluations.

Tempers have frayed. G20 meeting have become even more farcical and resemble ever more uncannily the gatherings of powdered, wig-wearing elites, so far removed from the people they rule over that they simply can not imagine why the commoners don't just work harder, earn less and consume more like the plan says. Let them eat cake has become let them borrow. Why won't the ungrateful wretches understand that there are no free hand-outs – at least not for them. Money can only be handed to those who know how to use it profitably, not waste it on pointless things like health services and pensions. The common people must realize they have brought this upon themselves and must now accept their medicine and work longer for less so they can get back to shopping, consuming and above all borrowing.

But I digress.

It seems to me this familiar story is missing something. Nations are printing and despite the fears of hyper-inflation none has so far appeared. Why not? I am sure there are many factors but I would like to offer one I have been thinking about.  Inflation occurs when the supply of money grows out of proportion to the economic activity it serves. When there is too much money around for too few goods and services, then prices inflate.

Fine. But how do we calculate the volume of goods and services the money is servicing, in order to know when re-flating will become inflating. The standard way is to compare the money supply with GDP. But money, in our debt backed world is tied up in credit and the larger and thoroughly international, border-less world of credit backed 'money'. That money does not stop at borders or fit within the statistics compiled within those borders. Most of the  'broad money' is simply not captured by national GDP figures but still exists, in the shadown, off-shore world.

We print and from that printing comes a torrent of new credit and debt which takes our currency and ties it to economic activity beyond our borders and beyond our economy. I have begun to think our nations are printing with another goal in mind. The more nations print the more their currency oozes out into the global economy, The more deals denominated in your currency the more good and services it is tied to. Those things may not be in 'your' economy, but they are still things your currency services and as such they form the demand for your currency which in turn, is what gives it its 'value'.

Nations that print do run the risk of inflation IF the volume of that currency becomes too great for the economic activity it services or to put it in another way, the amount of economic activity the currency has access to.

I wonder if nations, who by this point have painted themselves in to an exit-less corner of having to print to endlessly prop up their banks and achieve short term devaluations of  their currency, have realized that if you can't spur growth in your home economy then a workable alternative (and a far faster one) is to insinuate your currency in to other people's economic growth.

If so then the situation evolves again. Nations that have been printing can see that if they can expand the use of their currency –  by making it cheaper to borrow, selling more debt so more people hold IOUs in your currency, getting your currency in to other people's hands so more people use it to fund their economic activity, –  then your printing and your currency is tied to ever more economic activity, much more than you have at home, and is, by this means, safeguarded from inflation. I wonder if we could consider the Yen Carry -Trade, part of the reason Japan could print all through the  lost decades without inflation? The Japanese economy didn't have to grow as long as trade utlitizing the Yen did.

Are we entering a world where printing begins to create its own imperative to print more.  The more you print, the more your currency invades other people's economic activities, the safer your printing is and the more license you have to print yet more.

This, it seems to me, ushers in another side to currency wars. This side is not simply about currency manipulation and devaluation but about Currency Imperialism. Print up cash the way you used to train up soldiers and send those paper and electronic warriors off to conquer foreign lands. The only problem is the one common to all forms of Imperial empire building. Not everyone can expand indefinitely. At some point empires rub against each other and compete for space and influence. If I am even partly correct then wars will be fought over whose currency is used for what, by whom and where. I would suggest two wars, at least, have already been fought, at least in part, over this when the Euro and dollar clashed over what currency oil should be sold in. And I think this might prove to be a useful way of deciphering why new wars will be fought.

I have written about Currency Wars before offering specific analyses looking at China, Iran, India and Japan among others.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: LeoMc on January 25, 2013, 08:55:26 AM
Quote from: muppet on January 24, 2013, 11:00:58 AM
http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2013/01/currency-wars-their-imperial-aspect/ (http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2013/01/currency-wars-their-imperial-aspect/)

Currency Wars – their Imperial aspect

by Golem XIV on JANUARY 21, 2013 in LATEST
A quick thought about the money printing and currency wars.

When the current and on-going bank debt crisis began in 2007 we were told that the answer was to print up money (call it QE or 'borrowing' if it makes you happy) and give it to the banks. This would, we were assured, relieve the purely short-term cash and collateral shortage the banks appeared to be suffering, and once it did that the banks would be able to return to lending to the the real economy and we would all be saved. They printed. They gave it to the banks and...nothing happened.Except that it all got worse.

The banks got the money. But they did not lend to the real economy. Much of the cash they received, they parked straight back in the central banks where they were paid interest on it – by us.  Some was used as cash flow to pay bills. The rest, a growing amount, was used for speculation. Either by lending it to speculators or by the banks making it available to their own internal Prop. trading desk where they could speculate with it themselves.

Which was lovely if you were a banker but it did also mean that when the bankers needed more money and more had to be printed, there was a problem with justifying it. At first the bankers and our rulers tried to brazen it out and claimed we just hadn't printed enough the first time, or the second, and a bit of belt tightening and a dose of 'we're all in it together' cap touching and forelock tugging, as we handed our betters some more cash, would do the trick this time. Only it didn't.

Then something new entered the story. Instead of being forced into talking about the failure of what they had done, our leaders began to point to other countries who had been printing and claimed that while we were printing in order to help our banks lend and help the rest of us, 'they', those johnny-foreigners, were printing in order to devalue their currency against ours. And although no one actually said so, there was the handy, albeit unspoken implication that perhaps the reason our printing hadn't worked was because some countries, mentioning no names – oh all right then, China and Japan! –  were undermining all our otherwise brilliant efforts with their dastardly and selfish currency manipulation!

We were printing to help our banks help us. They were currency manipulators.

We seemed to slide from a world of central banks taking 'coordinated and heroic emergency actions' to a world where the same printing, when done by foreigners, was now reported as a 'race to the  bottom' of 'beggar they neighbor' devaluations.

Tempers have frayed. G20 meeting have become even more farcical and resemble ever more uncannily the gatherings of powdered, wig-wearing elites, so far removed from the people they rule over that they simply can not imagine why the commoners don't just work harder, earn less and consume more like the plan says. Let them eat cake has become let them borrow. Why won't the ungrateful wretches understand that there are no free hand-outs – at least not for them. Money can only be handed to those who know how to use it profitably, not waste it on pointless things like health services and pensions. The common people must realize they have brought this upon themselves and must now accept their medicine and work longer for less so they can get back to shopping, consuming and above all borrowing.

But I digress.

It seems to me this familiar story is missing something. Nations are printing and despite the fears of hyper-inflation none has so far appeared. Why not? I am sure there are many factors but I would like to offer one I have been thinking about.  Inflation occurs when the supply of money grows out of proportion to the economic activity it serves. When there is too much money around for too few goods and services, then prices inflate.

Fine. But how do we calculate the volume of goods and services the money is servicing, in order to know when re-flating will become inflating. The standard way is to compare the money supply with GDP. But money, in our debt backed world is tied up in credit and the larger and thoroughly international, border-less world of credit backed 'money'. That money does not stop at borders or fit within the statistics compiled within those borders. Most of the  'broad money' is simply not captured by national GDP figures but still exists, in the shadown, off-shore world.

We print and from that printing comes a torrent of new credit and debt which takes our currency and ties it to economic activity beyond our borders and beyond our economy. I have begun to think our nations are printing with another goal in mind. The more nations print the more their currency oozes out into the global economy, The more deals denominated in your currency the more good and services it is tied to. Those things may not be in 'your' economy, but they are still things your currency services and as such they form the demand for your currency which in turn, is what gives it its 'value'.

Nations that print do run the risk of inflation IF the volume of that currency becomes too great for the economic activity it services or to put it in another way, the amount of economic activity the currency has access to.

I wonder if nations, who by this point have painted themselves in to an exit-less corner of having to print to endlessly prop up their banks and achieve short term devaluations of  their currency, have realized that if you can't spur growth in your home economy then a workable alternative (and a far faster one) is to insinuate your currency in to other people's economic growth.

If so then the situation evolves again. Nations that have been printing can see that if they can expand the use of their currency –  by making it cheaper to borrow, selling more debt so more people hold IOUs in your currency, getting your currency in to other people's hands so more people use it to fund their economic activity, –  then your printing and your currency is tied to ever more economic activity, much more than you have at home, and is, by this means, safeguarded from inflation. I wonder if we could consider the Yen Carry -Trade, part of the reason Japan could print all through the  lost decades without inflation? The Japanese economy didn't have to grow as long as trade utlitizing the Yen did.

Are we entering a world where printing begins to create its own imperative to print more.  The more you print, the more your currency invades other people's economic activities, the safer your printing is and the more license you have to print yet more.

This, it seems to me, ushers in another side to currency wars. This side is not simply about currency manipulation and devaluation but about Currency Imperialism. Print up cash the way you used to train up soldiers and send those paper and electronic warriors off to conquer foreign lands. The only problem is the one common to all forms of Imperial empire building. Not everyone can expand indefinitely. At some point empires rub against each other and compete for space and influence. If I am even partly correct then wars will be fought over whose currency is used for what, by whom and where. I would suggest two wars, at least, have already been fought, at least in part, over this when the Euro and dollar clashed over what currency oil should be sold in. And I think this might prove to be a useful way of deciphering why new wars will be fought.

I have written about Currency Wars before offering specific analyses looking at China, Iran, India and Japan among others.


This gets touched upon in an old Jack Reacher book, Killing floor.
It talks a lot about the US Dollar being the accepted currency in many parts of the world and reckoned there were twice as many dollars floating round outside the US than inside it.
While the US currency is seen as stable people are happy to use it in place of their own less stable currency. While people are happy to trade with the dollar it never actually gets "cashed in" and is in effect a giant interest free loan that may never need to be paid back.
Title: Iceland wins!
Post by: muppet on January 28, 2013, 01:40:08 PM
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4258b6da-693b-11e2-b254-00144feab49a.html#axzz2JCl1qDcO (http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4258b6da-693b-11e2-b254-00144feab49a.html#axzz2JCl1qDcO)

The EFTA (European Free Trade Association) court on Monday dismissed all claims against Iceland, ruling that it had not breached the deposit guarantee directive because Iceland's financial crisis was so big. It also held that Iceland had not discriminated between depositors in its own country and those in the UK or Netherlands.

Title: Re: Iceland wins!
Post by: Main Street on January 28, 2013, 03:47:01 PM
Quote from: muppet on January 28, 2013, 01:40:08 PM
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4258b6da-693b-11e2-b254-00144feab49a.html#axzz2JCl1qDcO (http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4258b6da-693b-11e2-b254-00144feab49a.html#axzz2JCl1qDcO)

The EFTA (European Free Trade Association) court on Monday dismissed all claims against Iceland, ruling that it had not breached the deposit guarantee directive because Iceland's financial crisis was so big. It also held that Iceland had not discriminated between depositors in its own country and those in the UK or Netherlands.
The Iceland state had already accepted to pay back the minimum (up to Eur20k) for each Icesave deposit held by a johnny foreigner in the online accounts in the UK and Netherlands and uses the proceeds from the sale of failed bank's considerable assets in England to do so. Most of that has been repaid to those two government already.
But the UK and the Netherlands were not satisfied with that. They wanted the Iceland state found guilty of not being able to meet those deposit guarantees immediately the bank failed in Oct 2008, also they wanted the Iceland state be found guilty of discriminating against the foreign deposit holders when the Iceland parliament passed a law at the 11th hour in Oct 2008, closing down the failed banks with their bad debts left inside, and moving only the Icelandic deposit accounts over to the newly created banks.  And lastly the UK and Netherlands were suing for damages, for an amount equal to 50% of Iceland's GDP.


This is a huge judgement by the EFTA court in Iceland's favour, stunning actually  because this is not a neutral court per se. EFTA court judgements usually tow the line of the EFTA status quo and the ESA (EFTA Surveillance Authority) who took the case against Iceland, almost never lose a case there.
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/01/28/iceland-wins-major-case-over-failed-bank/ (http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/01/28/iceland-wins-major-case-over-failed-bank/)

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on January 28, 2013, 08:27:04 PM
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/01/28/why_cant_europe_save_itself_eurozone_currency_union?page=0,0 (http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/01/28/why_cant_europe_save_itself_eurozone_currency_union?page=0,0)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: seafoid on January 28, 2013, 10:33:54 PM
This is one of my favourite stories from the Financial crisis

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/02761746-9606-11e1-a6a0-00144feab49a.html#ixzz2JJPemauq

"The stocks that are currently high dividend have been bid up a lot because people want income. That could continue, but it feels like you're a bit late to the party."

By preferring high-dividend paying stocks, investors are once again flying in the face of financial theory. Franco Modigliani and Merton Miller won the 1985 Nobel memorial prize in economics for pointing out that in an efficient market dividend payouts are irrelevant.

;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: seafoid on February 01, 2013, 11:23:16 AM
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3e1d027e-6c47-11e2-b73a-00144feab49a.html

Netherlands nationalises SNS Reaal

By Matt Steinglass in London

The Netherlands has nationalised SNS Reaal, the fourth-largest systemically important bank in the Netherlands, at a cost to Dutch taxpayers of €3.7bn.
The bank had spent the past several weeks in a desperate search for private capital to compensate for heavy losses in its real estate holdings, particularly in Spanish assets.
•Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the Netherlands' finance minister, said in a statement he had "looked at every alternative involving private parties", but found none that could guarantee the stability of the Dutch banking system.
With ABN Amro still in government hands after it was nationalised in 2009, the nationalisation of SNS Reaal means two of the Netherlands' four systemically important banks are state-owned.
The nationalisation, carried out under the Netherlands' 2012 law on bank intervention, will mean shareholders of the bank and subordinated debt holders will see their stakes wiped out.
The state will inject €2.2bn in new capital, while forgiving €800m the bank still owed from its earlier bailout during the financial crisis. It will also write off €700m in the value of the bank's real estate assets.
"I can sympathise easily with the resistance many will feel because we again will need to use a large amount of public money," Mr Dijsselbloem said. "This is why I want the private sector to pay as large a share as possible of the rescue of SNS Reaal."


http://blogs.ft.com/economistsforum/2013/01/go-fitch-go/

The Dutch legislature last year passed the so-called Intervention Act. It hands the treasury and Dutch central bank the power to force unsecured bondholders to participate in any bank rescue operation, for example by means of converting the bonds into shares. And while the Dutch treasury secretary, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, has said very little about a possible bailout of SNS Reaal in public, he seems quite prepared to make unsecured bondholders pay before any tax revenues come into play.
As the wipeout of ordinary, unsecured bondholders of a major European bank becomes increasingly likely, Fitch, one of the three major rating agencies, has issued a stark warning. In an interview with the Dutch Financieele Dagblad on January 24, managing director and research analyst Bridget Gandy of Fitch said: "If an important country in Europe wipes out a troubled bank's ordinary bondholders, it would fundamentally change the way we view [European] banks."

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Canalman on February 01, 2013, 11:34:42 AM
Am terribly confused. Have been reading alot  of columnists sniffing that it is the "Papist countries "( and Orthodox Greece ......... really another  word for Catholic) that have been feckless and naughty in the Eurozone.
Say it ain't so Joe!

Dutch taxpayers bailing out a bank. I refuse to believe it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Billys Boots on February 01, 2013, 11:44:58 AM
QuoteDutch taxpayers bailing out a bank. I refuse to believe it.

Does this mean that they were expecting EFTA to ride the Icelanders in their favour?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: seafoid on February 01, 2013, 03:24:21 PM
Tweet from Karl Deeter at the Irish economy conference (#ieconf)

http://twitter.com/search?q=%23ieconf&src=hash

Michael Taft - austerity has failed, meanwhile in the background outside a man digs in the bin for food
http://twitpic.com/c01kru
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on February 01, 2013, 04:41:28 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 01, 2013, 03:24:21 PM
Tweet from Karl Deeter at the Irish economy conference (#ieconf)

http://twitter.com/search?q=%23ieconf&src=hash

Michael Taft - austerity has failed, meanwhile in the background outside a man digs in the bin for food
http://twitpic.com/c01kru

Seafoid, did you watch those Zeitgeist movies and if so what did you make of them?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: seafoid on February 01, 2013, 05:38:27 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 01, 2013, 04:41:28 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 01, 2013, 03:24:21 PM
Tweet from Karl Deeter at the Irish economy conference (#ieconf)

http://twitter.com/search?q=%23ieconf&src=hash

Michael Taft - austerity has failed, meanwhile in the background outside a man digs in the bin for food
http://twitpic.com/c01kru

Seafoid, did you watch those Zeitgeist movies and if so what did you make of them?

What films are they? 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on February 01, 2013, 05:51:09 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 01, 2013, 05:38:27 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 01, 2013, 04:41:28 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 01, 2013, 03:24:21 PM
Tweet from Karl Deeter at the Irish economy conference (#ieconf)

http://twitter.com/search?q=%23ieconf&src=hash

Michael Taft - austerity has failed, meanwhile in the background outside a man digs in the bin for food
http://twitpic.com/c01kru

Seafoid, did you watch those Zeitgeist movies and if so what did you make of them?

What films are they?

Critics call them conspiracy movies, and they are in that vein but they are quite good, especially on the subject of money. Plus the style is to present info and you make up your mind, rather than the usual down your throat stuff.

http://www.zeitgeistmovie.com (http://www.zeitgeistmovie.com)

They are free to view online. The 1st was ok (a lot of the 911 stuff was not that convincing for me), the 2nd was better mainly on money as I say, and I haven't watched the 3rd yet.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Main Street on February 01, 2013, 06:23:49 PM
In the Economist,  tomorrow's print edition :)
http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21571184-court-ruling-over-icelandic-bank-blow-global-banking-cooler (http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21571184-court-ruling-over-icelandic-bank-blow-global-banking-cooler)

'A court ruling over an Icelandic bank is a blow to global banking'

Translated into citizen speak, that means, Citizens 6   Greedy Global Banking 0  ;D

What has upset the Economist so much?
In the event of a bank failure, the EFTA court upheld the right of a country to place priority to the claims of the deposit holders and put the bank's creditors to the back of the queue.
The Economist twists this around as if Iceland had discriminated against foreign deposit account holders,
but  the Economist does not print the actual significant story, that Iceland discriminated against global banking creditors thereby ensuring all the deposit holders, both foreign and domestic, got all their money back from the assets of the failed bank, as priority claimants.

In the EU, you are not supposed to make such a discrimination. In the EU after a bank has gone belly up, assets gone,  you are supposed to transfer the rest of the liabilities,  both depositors and private corporations, onto taxpayers. Supposedly  a country can't mess around and decide to  discriminate with the priority of claimants. 
The Economist's parting line is
'This week's ruling will only weaken confidence in the willingness of countries to bail out foreign creditors'.  :'(

FWIW, the assets of the failed bank were about £10bn   
Claimants. deposit accounts were about £10bn     but  global banking had claims of about £70bn, left muttering 'discrimination' ..'discrimination'...
Has Iceland collapsed into a state of financial infamy? apparently not.






Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: seafoid on February 01, 2013, 09:23:45 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 01, 2013, 05:51:09 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 01, 2013, 05:38:27 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 01, 2013, 04:41:28 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 01, 2013, 03:24:21 PM
Tweet from Karl Deeter at the Irish economy conference (#ieconf)

http://twitter.com/search?q=%23ieconf&src=hash

Michael Taft - austerity has failed, meanwhile in the background outside a man digs in the bin for food
http://twitpic.com/c01kru

Seafoid, did you watch those Zeitgeist movies and if so what did you make of them?

What films are they?

Critics call them conspiracy movies, and they are in that vein but they are quite good, especially on the subject of money. Plus the style is to present info and you make up your mind, rather than the usual down your throat stuff.

http://www.zeitgeistmovie.com (http://www.zeitgeistmovie.com)

They are free to view online. The 1st was ok (a lot of the 911 stuff was not that convincing for me), the 2nd was better mainly on money as I say, and I haven't watched the 3rd yet.
Thanks Muppet. I'll check them out.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on February 06, 2013, 01:46:38 PM
http://www.ourcountry.ie/ (http://www.ourcountry.ie/)

Roll up roll up last chance to voice your opinion.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on February 06, 2013, 05:24:45 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2013/0206/366525-anglo-promissory-note/ (http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2013/0206/366525-anglo-promissory-note/)

The Government plans to liquidate the Irish Bank Resolution Corporation, formerly Anglo Irish Bank, as part of changes to replace the promissory note with a new financing arrangement.

The Central Bank will take over the balance sheet of IBRC under the new deal.

Any new arrangements with regarding IBRC would need backing from the European Central Bank governing council. Its members are gathering in Frankfurt tonight ahead of ahead a formal meeting tomorrow morning. The meeting of the ECB governing council will be followed by the monthly press conference held by the bank's president Mario Draghi.

It is speculated that the promissory note would be replaced with a long term Irish Government bond.

This would have the effect of reducing the burden of annual repayments of €3.1 billion on the Exchequer.


I reckon this would make the annual cost less but the overall cost more. Also tearing up the Promo would piss people in Europe off, but would not constitute a default afaik. Switching to a Government Bond now would make it almost impossible to walk away from. Presumably we issue a bond to clear the Promo but we are stuck fast with the terms of the new bond.

This (still guessing) effectively means slightly less increased taxes now as we will borrow some taxes from further in the future. Of course the Promo was Lenihan borrowing taxes from the future (now) to bail out Anglo bondholders in 2008. This to me is just more can kicking.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on February 06, 2013, 05:31:15 PM
Will wait to hear full details but on the face of it  we are re-mortgaging a debt that was never ours in the first place.
We shouldn't be paying this full stop. After shouldering and largely halting a massive europe wide banking failure we are getting a measly 5 year extension on debts accrued through reckless lending by european banks to a private irish bank.

Update: Dara Doyle - Bloomberg bureau chief in Dublin

@DaraDoy 1)*IRELAND SAID TO PLAN TRANSFER ANGLO IRISH LOANS TO NAma IRELAND SAID TO PLAN SPECIAL LIQUIDATOR TO FORMER ANGLO BAnk


Another three card trick I think
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on February 06, 2013, 06:13:40 PM
Looking like a 40 year bond, thus taxes collected up to the year 2053 to go to paying off Anglo. I must tell my kids they will have to apologise to their kids for me.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: brokencrossbar1 on February 06, 2013, 06:32:03 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 06, 2013, 06:13:40 PM
Looking like a 40 year bond, thus taxes collected up to the year 2053 to go to paying off Anglo. I must tell my kids they will have to apologise to their kids for me.

Basically that is correct, 2 generations of Irish people basically being fucked over by greedy property speculators and developers.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: seafoid on February 06, 2013, 08:38:09 PM
http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2013/02/06/nama-to-merge-with-ibrc-as-scramble-for-promissory-note-solution-intensifies/#comments
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on February 06, 2013, 08:53:21 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 06, 2013, 08:38:09 PM
http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2013/02/06/nama-to-merge-with-ibrc-as-scramble-for-promissory-note-solution-intensifies/#comments

That is very complicated for me, but looks a bit like a stroke to get cheaper interest rates. If it does that and if it pisses off the ECB in the process then good. What am I missing?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: seafoid on February 06, 2013, 09:34:32 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 06, 2013, 08:53:21 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 06, 2013, 08:38:09 PM
http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2013/02/06/nama-to-merge-with-ibrc-as-scramble-for-promissory-note-solution-intensifies/#comments

That is very complicated for me, but looks a bit like a stroke to get cheaper interest rates. If it does that and if it pisses off the ECB in the process then good. What am I missing?
If it gets cheaper interest rates then it's an improvement.
But people will vote FF at the next GE. And they don't understand how
FF were responsible for what happened.

They had no clue when the wolf appeared at the door.
The Promissory notes and the 31bn are the price of FF ineptitude.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: seafoid on February 06, 2013, 09:49:21 PM
FT

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/926f3354-7081-11e2-a2cf-00144feab49a.html

Ireland proposes deal to ease debt pile

By Jamie Smyth in Dublin and Lina Saigol in London

Ireland's chances of exiting its international bailout later this year have been given a boost after Dublin proposed a deal to reduce the cost of its bank debt in return for a speedier liquidation of Anglo Irish Bank, the failed lender.
Under the plan, the Irish government would wind up Anglo Irish Bank more quickly than planned in return for eurozone agreement to replace the costly €28bn promissory notes that were used to bail out the bank in 2009, according to people familiar with the plans.

The deal still requires the approval of the European Central Bank. But the Irish parliament was poised to rush through emergency legislation on Wednesday night and the government was set to appoint a liquidator within hours to expedite the windup of Anglo Irish.
Three people with knowledge of the proposal suggested that the former Anglo Irish assets would be shifted on to the balance sheet of the National Asset Management Agency. Dublin set up NAMA as a "bad bank" in 2009 to clear toxic property loans with a face value of €74bn from the balance sheets of its main banks.
Under the proposed deal, Dublin would issue sovereign bonds to replace the promissory notes that the defunct lender uses to tap central bank liquidity.
Crucially, these bonds would be on less onerous terms than the promissory notes that the Irish government is obliged to repay in €3.1bn annual instalments (principal and interest) for the next decade.
The promissory notes have become a lightning rod for public anger over austerity and Ireland's treatment at the hands of the eurozone authorities, particularly the ECB. The annual payments are more or less equivalent to the value of austerity measures implemented by Dublin each year.
A deal would be a big relief to Dublin, easing its return to markets and exit from its international bailout programme due later this year. The ECB has had concerns that the restructuring of Ireland's debt could lead other eurozone countries to seek similar ways of reducing their debt burdens. However, Ireland was the only euro member with the burdensome promissory notes.
The plans is expected to be announced, after Patrick Honohan, the Irish central bank governor, proposed a solution at Wednesday's meeting of the ECB in Frankfurt.
It comes after a two-year lobbying campaign by Dublin to be allowed to restructure the promissory notes that were agreed with the ECB at the height of the financial crisis. The ECB has rejected previous Irish proposals saying they were akin to monetary financing of governments, prohibited under EU treaties.
Anglo Irish Bank is now called Irish Bank Resolution Corporation. In January the FT reported that IBRC was accelerating the sale of tens of billions of euros of property-backed loans. The lender was due to be liquidated by 2020.
Anglo Irish was the bank at the centre of Ireland's financial crisis after lending tens of billions of euros to property developers during the building boom that followed Ireland's adoption of the euro in 1999.
The lender's collapse has saddled Irish taxpayers with net losses of between €26bn-30bn.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on February 06, 2013, 10:05:32 PM
One wonders what happens if the ECB says no.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: seafoid on February 06, 2013, 10:10:45 PM
Fail again. Fail better ?

But they probably want to get Ireland out of the bailout and stretching the loan out is better than scrubbing it from their PoV and the last Draghi thing has them lending money at rock bottom rates to everyone so it is not
a particularly audacious plan. I would say.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: GalwayBayBoy on February 07, 2013, 12:12:17 AM
The usual clusterfuck in the Dail then. I'd say 90%+ of the TD's there have no idea on what they are actually voting on and how could they given how they are trying to rush it through before the markets open in the morning. The ECB must be pissing themselves.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: seafoid on February 07, 2013, 02:11:36 PM
http://blogs.ft.com/money-supply/liveblogs/2013-02-07/

And now questions. First, has the ECB reached a deal on the Anglo-Irish affair.
On Ireland, there wasn't a decision to take. The ECB council took note of the Irish operation. Draghi refers everyone to Dublin.


It is Byzantine
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Hardy on February 07, 2013, 02:39:34 PM
It's also the death-knell for the policy of separating bank debt from sovereign, duly and officially decided by the council of ministers last June, reneged upon by the financially powerful nations and meekly abandoned by our government.

And, in another "Aberdeen Man Drowned As Liner Hits Iceberg" episode, the SF groupies here seem to think the most significant event of the last 24 hours was that Pierce Doherty was shouted at in the Dáil.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: seafoid on February 07, 2013, 02:49:11 PM
Quote from: Hardy on February 07, 2013, 02:39:34 PM
It's also the death-knell for the policy of separating bank debt from sovereign, duly and officially decided by the council of ministers last June, reneged upon by the financially powerful nations and meekly abandoned by our government.

And, in another "Aberdeen Man Drowned As Liner Hits Iceberg" episode, the SF groupies here seem to think the most significant event of the last 24 hours was that Pierce Doherty was shouted at in the Dáil.
the name of the game is power
and Ireland doesn't have any
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Hardy on February 07, 2013, 02:50:17 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 07, 2013, 02:49:11 PM
Quote from: Hardy on February 07, 2013, 02:39:34 PM
It's also the death-knell for the policy of separating bank debt from sovereign, duly and officially decided by the council of ministers last June, reneged upon by the financially powerful nations and meekly abandoned by our government.

And, in another "Aberdeen Man Drowned As Liner Hits Iceberg" episode, the SF groupies here seem to think the most significant event of the last 24 hours was that Pierce Doherty was shouted at in the Dáil.
the name of the game is power
and Ireland doesn't have any

Iceland doesn't have much either. But it has cojones.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: seafoid on February 07, 2013, 03:32:49 PM
Quote from: Hardy on February 07, 2013, 02:50:17 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 07, 2013, 02:49:11 PM
Quote from: Hardy on February 07, 2013, 02:39:34 PM
It's also the death-knell for the policy of separating bank debt from sovereign, duly and officially decided by the council of ministers last June, reneged upon by the financially powerful nations and meekly abandoned by our government.

And, in another "Aberdeen Man Drowned As Liner Hits Iceberg" episode, the SF groupies here seem to think the most significant event of the last 24 hours was that Pierce Doherty was shouted at in the Dáil.
the name of the game is power
and Ireland doesn't have any

Iceland doesn't have much either. But it has cojones.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3ed71cc8-712d-11e2-9d5c-00144feab49a.html


Dublin has won reluctant agreement from the European Central Bank to restructure a chunk of its bank debts in a move the government believes should ease its exit from its international bailout later this year.

The deal will not write off any of the €64bn debts racked up by Dublin when it bailed out its banks during its financial crisis. Instead, it will stretch out repayments on almost half Ireland's bank related debts over a longer timeframe, easing the country's short-term financing requirements.


Fair play to FG 

r
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on February 07, 2013, 04:21:55 PM
QuoteThe deficit this year is 15bn. It is a tough ask expecting the Govt to go all John Wayne when it has to borrow that sort of money from the ECB to pay the bills.

We are now 5 years into a deep recession and we have decided to remortgage a debt that wasn't ours to keep our european betters happy - We cannot pay back the money we cannot continue to operate with such a deficit so we should be adult about it and have a negotiated settlement  - We have a fear that the world will collapse if we do that -We have no imagination or as Hardy put it cojones in our political establishment who, with their well paid and guaranteed jobs and pensions, have no idea what the normal person in this country is enduring - We are a busted flush and we will continue to be so as long as we maintain this attitude.

As someone who was a huge supporter of the European project in dragging us into the 21st Century it angers me to see how our "partners" are riding us. I'd love to have a poker session with Baldy, Enda and the rest of the gobshites who inhabit our DOF.

Only copperfastens my plans for the next 10/20 years to do everything I can to get the f**k outta this place
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on February 07, 2013, 05:00:55 PM
QuoteIs it safe to say that this debt will never be paid off then, ever? That in 40 years time we'll just be releasing new bonds to cover the old ones when they mature and hope that market rates are favorable?

That's one line of argument  - that sovereign debt is never paid off just serviced or stuck on the never never and we continue as before. So this "deal" will allow us to get back into the very financial markets(hat are part of the problem.), to borrow money to keep the country running at a serviceable deficit.

Bizarre but true
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Denn Forever on February 07, 2013, 05:08:12 PM
Just imagine how you'll feel if your child announces they want to do Business at College!  And they'll need a loan.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: camanchero on February 07, 2013, 05:08:44 PM
a disgrace
the debt was not reduced, merely an agreement to pay it all off over a longer period.

I hope they start up a bolshevik party , I'll vote for them - esp if they say they are going to tell the bondholders to feck off (well only paying 50%-75% would be better than what we have now).
fg are incapable and inept. labour are their willing useless lapdogs.

we have too many people in cushy positions who only care about me fein. thats the problem with our gov and people who we vote for.
There are only a handful that are worth the vote.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on February 07, 2013, 05:11:43 PM
Noonan just said it was pointless to ask for a write down as it was never a runner and quoted that Greece only got a restructuring on "private" debt - The scare tactics from ECB re the lender of the last resort is the reason given - so we'll never know as we never called their bluff when we could have and threatened to bring the whole Eurozone down
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on February 07, 2013, 05:30:47 PM
Quote from: camanchero on February 07, 2013, 05:11:13 PM
we are in hock to a loan shark type scenario.
If we default or refuse to pay a certain amount of it- what will they do - break our legs (they are broken already).

however Iceland told them to feck off and they are not castigated as financial pariahs - they are starting to prosper again by all accounts.
surely thats a f**king lead/clue for those fg/lab (and indeed ff etc) gobsihte amadans to follow !!

Before the recent fad of Iceland's great recovery it was all talk about Argentina. You don't hear much about that anymore as they are still international pariahs 12 years on. See this from last October: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/27/business/global/us-court-rules-against-argentina-over-bond-payments.html?_r=0 (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/27/business/global/us-court-rules-against-argentina-over-bond-payments.html?_r=0)

Iceland is not is the euro. The Icelandic Government did burn some bondholders, but it paid as much as it could, incidentally this was given as a reason for the recent court victory over the EFTA. It then imposed capital controls, banning the movement of money out of the State, which if we had done every multinational in the place would have pulled out. Then it devalued its currency forcing its people, pensions and businesses to take a big reduction in wealth. Nowadays they have growth of around 3% which is why people talk about Iceand but they don;t talk about what happened before that.

To do an Iceland I think there is little doubt we would have had to leave the euro and devalue our new currency on a large scale. For a while I really thought this would happen. But it would be madness now.

One thing I would give Iceland huge credit for is the legal prosecutions that followed their bank collapse. We could definitely learn a thing or two there.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: mayogodhelpus@gmail.com on February 07, 2013, 05:42:19 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 07, 2013, 05:30:47 PM
Quote from: camanchero on February 07, 2013, 05:11:13 PM
we are in hock to a loan shark type scenario.
If we default or refuse to pay a certain amount of it- what will they do - break our legs (they are broken already).

however Iceland told them to feck off and they are not castigated as financial pariahs - they are starting to prosper again by all accounts.
surely thats a f**king lead/clue for those fg/lab (and indeed ff etc) gobsihte amadans to follow !!

Before the recent fad of Iceland's great recovery it was all talk about Argentina. You don't hear much about that anymore as they are still international pariahs 12 years on. See this from last October: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/27/business/global/us-court-rules-against-argentina-over-bond-payments.html?_r=0 (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/27/business/global/us-court-rules-against-argentina-over-bond-payments.html?_r=0)

Iceland is not is the euro. The Icelandic Government did burn some bondholders, but it paid as much as it could, incidentally this was given as a reason for the recent court victory over the EFTA. It then imposed capital controls, banning the movement of money out of the State, which if we had done every multinational in the place would have pulled out. Then it devalued its currency forcing its people, pensions and businesses to take a big reduction in wealth. Nowadays they have growth of around 3% which is why people talk about Iceand but they don;t talk about what happened before that.

To do an Iceland I think there is little doubt we would have had to leave the euro and devalue our new currency on a large scale. For a while I really thought this would happen. But it would be madness now.

One thing I would give Iceland huge credit for is the legal prosecutions that followed their bank collapse. We could definitely learn a thing or two there.

I saw that before about that Argentinan Naval Ship, despite it being more a symbol of national pride rather than a functional warship, is detaining it not an act of war.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: seafoid on February 07, 2013, 05:43:28 PM
They got rid of the Iceland version of FF a few years ago but the vampires are likely to return after the next election.
That is what happens. People get tired of crisis and they forget .
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on February 07, 2013, 05:54:02 PM
QuoteIt all depends on what happens inflation wise over the next 40 years.
The debt is fixed. If inflation is higher than it is now the debt will be reduced in real terms.
My parents took out a mortgage for 10,000 in 1973. The mortgage loan was worth very little 15 years later

That was then this is now. For inflation to help with the principle repayment we'd have to have annual inflation of over 3% for the next 40 years. Now in a eurozone controlled by Germany with their innate fear of inflation what do you reckon the chances of that are? Also what is the mechanism used to control inflation - higher interest rates and what impact would that have on the coping classes here?

We are Fubarred and we are still running a budget deficit of €15billion a year without the bank debt in a deflationary recession
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: armaghniac on February 07, 2013, 06:23:59 PM
QuoteThat was then this is now. For inflation to help with the principle repayment we'd have to have annual inflation of over 3% for the next 40 years

Not quite. The Irish Central Bank is charging 3%, but it gets its money at 1% from the ECB, so makes a profit of 2% which of course also ends up in the governments coffers.

The economy will grow at a nominal 4-5%, and effectively pay out 1%, so the burden will diminish over time and of course unforeseen circumstances might lead to higher inflation at some point. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: seafoid on February 07, 2013, 06:30:41 PM
Quote from: Declan on February 07, 2013, 05:54:02 PM
QuoteIt all depends on what happens inflation wise over the next 40 years.
The debt is fixed. If inflation is higher than it is now the debt will be reduced in real terms.
My parents took out a mortgage for 10,000 in 1973. The mortgage loan was worth very little 15 years later

That was then this is now. For inflation to help with the principle repayment we'd have to have annual inflation of over 3% for the next 40 years. Now in a eurozone controlled by Germany with their innate fear of inflation what do you reckon the chances of that are? Also what is the mechanism used to control inflation - higher interest rates and what impact would that have on the coping classes here?

We are Fubarred and we are still running a budget deficit of €15billion a year without the bank debt in a deflationary recession
Some people are banjaxed for sure. There is still a massive deficit. The public sector are in for a rough ride. It is going to take years to get over the tiger. But today was a step forward. I think some debts will end up being inflated away. Germans or not.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on February 07, 2013, 06:30:54 PM
http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/02/722013-trading-debt-for-cash-flow-relief.html?spref=tw (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/02/722013-trading-debt-for-cash-flow-relief.html?spref=tw)

Posted by Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev
Muy thoughts (quick one between lecturing) on the deal:

As I understand it,

We have converted quasi-governmental debt into pure Government bond.
Maturity profile is very good - long dated, no restriction on NTMA raising funds at 20 year +
We are gaining some cash flow improvements up front (where they matter most), but
We are not getting a major write down on the debt overall.
Deficit impact is one-off 500mln, that will be absorbed into improvement over 2014 Budget and that's it as it becomes 'repeated measure' equivalent in 2015 and after.
So material saving to the economy is really 500mln and that is at the peak (2014-2015), after that the savings will decline, until finally, around ca 2020-2025 (needs more precise calculations here) the savings will become negative as we will be paying more in interest than we would have been paying before.
Additional second order effect is that improved bond markets profile is likely to result in slightly lower borrowing costs over time, but this impact is off-set by the reduced Central Bank revenues remittable back to the Exchequer.
The deal is not putting any final closure to the Anglo or INBS 'odious' debt, but simply constitutes an extension of the debt.

It can result in the lower real value of the debt over the period of time, assuming Ireland can issue bonds at negative real interest rates (bond coupons below inflation rate), which is unlikely.

Neither is the deal reducing the debt overall, which means the deal has no effect on the adverse impact of debt drag on growth. The Government never asked for a debt writedown (reduction in the overall debt levels).

The deal is a net positive, but materially not significant enough.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Rossfan on February 07, 2013, 08:44:31 PM
Quote from: camanchero on February 07, 2013, 05:08:44 PM

I hope they start up a bolshevik party , I'll vote for them - esp if they say they are going to tell the bondholders to feck off

Nothing like waiting for "Someone else" eh?
Anyway SF in the 26 Cos. fit the bill already  ;D

Anyway the deal done today/last night was the inevitable one - pay back over a longer period so it costs less each year but the overall total is much more .
There will be a lot more of this over the next few years both at Governmantal and private/personal levels.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: magpie seanie on February 07, 2013, 09:32:45 PM
So I should go into the bank tomorrow and ask the bank to extend my mortgage to 50 years and claim a great victory.

What utter gobshites we have to suffer in this country. f**king arseholes and arselickers and as someone already said not a ball among the lot of them.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: armaghniac on February 07, 2013, 09:39:39 PM
QuoteSo I should go into the bank tomorrow and ask the bank to extend my mortgage to 50 years and claim a great victory.

If the bank was charging you an effective 1% then it would be victory, even at 3% it would be a victory.

This is not a great victory or a game changing goal, but it is a point scored against a tenacious opposition.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: lawnseed on February 07, 2013, 09:45:57 PM
yep. our kids are really going to want to look after us in our old age.. cheerio pensions :o
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: seafoid on February 07, 2013, 10:09:28 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on February 07, 2013, 09:32:45 PM
So I should go into the bank tomorrow and ask the bank to extend my mortgage to 50 years and claim a great victory.

What utter gobshites we have to suffer in this country. f**king arseholes and arselickers and as someone already said not a ball among the lot of them.
The damage was done when FF guaranteed the banks. They were clueless. They didn't even know what the total exposure was. It was all going to be grand. It was, in fact, worse than spread betting.

Everything followed on from that.

The ironic thing is that Michael McDowell warned the electorate in 2007 that if the FF/PD coalition was rejected in the election of that year it would condemn the country to an economic collapse .
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on February 08, 2013, 07:43:56 AM
QuoteThe damage was done when FF guaranteed the banks. They were clueless. They didn't even know what the total exposure was. It was all going to be grand. It was, in fact, worse than spread betting.

Everything followed on from that.

Correct and let no one forget that  when they come knocking or spout more shite on TV or radio

QuoteThis is not a great victory or a game changing goal, but it is a point scored against a tenacious opposition.

Nice analogy but continuing that them it's like Kilkenny allowing Tyrone hurlers to score a point in the first 10 minutes of the game whilst promptly sticking the boot back in and battering the shite out of them for the next 60 mins and every time they meet in the future.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Hound on February 08, 2013, 09:08:55 AM
Quote from: Declan on February 08, 2013, 07:43:56 AM
QuoteThe damage was done when FF guaranteed the banks. They were clueless. They didn't even know what the total exposure was. It was all going to be grand. It was, in fact, worse than spread betting.

Everything followed on from that.

Correct and let no one forget that  when they come knocking or spout more shite on TV or radio

But is it right to blame someone for what their predecessors did?
Personally I've rarely given FF a number 1 vote in the past (Jim Glennon the only one I think) but in the future if I think a FFer is the best person in my constituency I'll have no hesitation in voting for him/her. He or she would have had very little if anything to do with 2008 and prior.

We don't have the full details of what went on behind closed doors in 2008, but I put the blame firmly at the feet of Cowen and Lenihan. While the cabinet and the party agreed to it and nobody in opposition called foul (apart from those with zero credibility who call foul on absolutely everything), it was Cowen and Lenihan who seemed to be the ones calling all the shots.

What I'd love to know is who knew at that time that the government's highly paid banking advisors Merrills had advised on a restricted guarantee rather than the carte blanche that was given.

Yesterday's comments by Central Bank governor Patrick Honohan were interesting:

QuoteMr Honohan yesterday described the Anglo Irish Bank episode as "horrendously damaging" for Ireland.

He said he had "quite a lot of sympathy" for people involved in the 2008 bank guarantee. "Some should have been better informed, some should have had better advice, some shouldn't have jumped to conclusions, some shouldn't have been so arrogant and over-confident."

He reminded his audience that Ireland was a triple-A market darling and its banking problems were initially dismissed as natural aftershocks from Wall Street turbulence. The Irish government decided to "guarantee everything, with no shilly-shallying around".

"Did the ECB recommend that? I am sure they didn't, though nobody knows," said Mr Honohan, who joined the Central Bank and ECB governing council a year after the guarantee. In hindsight, he said it would have been "best practice to have given a limited guarantee. If they'd known Anglo Irish would be so bad they should have been closed there and then with losses to depositors."

I think the ECB deal means we are better off now than we were yesterday. But its marginal. And there's a lot of wishful thinking. And if we are wishing for inflation, we have to remember there's two sides to that coin.

The people most happy with this deal are the government back benchers. Hence the round of applause. The short term gain means the Budgets prior to election won't be so bad. And as everyone knows, the way our political system works means that the main focus of almost all of our politicians (govt and opposition) isn't the good of the country, its what can I do/say to get elected next time. 

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Rossfan on February 08, 2013, 11:00:49 AM
Quote from: magpie seanie on February 07, 2013, 09:32:45 PM

What utter gobshites we have to suffer in this country. f**king arseholes and arselickers and as someone already said not a ball among the lot of them.
Take a deep breath and count to 10 Seanie. All that anger and indignation isn't good for you.

Just remember the Rep of Ireland is just a pimple on the arse of the EU - 4.4m pop out of something like 500m so the head buck cats in the ECB etc look on Kenny/Gilmore etc as naughty kids who overspent their pocket money.
Of course they also remember the arrogant cnuts like McCreevy and Harney roaring and shouting during the artificial property boom about "being nearer Boston than Berlin" and "we're not taking any guff from that oul EU - look at us the richest Country in Europe" etc etc.
Not much help coming from Boston these days. What a pity Berlin wouldn't stop Harney and McCreevy's fat pensions  >:(
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: armaghniac on February 08, 2013, 11:26:25 AM
There is a big element of kicking the can down the road here. But it is clear that default now, while there is a substantial deficit, is dangerous. Kicking the can down the road means you can default/restructure in the future if needs be or if the time is more opportune. These bonds are in Irish Central Bank for the moment. If the Euro was to break up or the like, then they could simply be shredded.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: seafoid on February 08, 2013, 11:34:07 AM
Quote from: Hound on February 08, 2013, 09:08:55 AM
Quote from: Declan on February 08, 2013, 07:43:56 AM
QuoteThe damage was done when FF guaranteed the banks. They were clueless. They didn't even know what the total exposure was. It was all going to be grand. It was, in fact, worse than spread betting.

Everything followed on from that.

Correct and let no one forget that  when they come knocking or spout more shite on TV or radio

But is it right to blame someone for what their predecessors did?


I think the Magdalene women deserve an apology.
I think the people deserve an apology from FF and the PDs.
I think they deserve some "never again" assurances.

I think Leaving Cert students should study what happened and why .

The worst thing that could happen would be that nobody learns anything and it happens again in 2 generations' time 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Asal Mor on February 08, 2013, 12:15:15 PM
Quote from: Declan on February 08, 2013, 07:43:56 AM
QuoteThe damage was done when FF guaranteed the banks. They were clueless. They didn't even know what the total exposure was. It was all going to be grand. It was, in fact, worse than spread betting.

Everything followed on from that.

Correct and let no one forget that  when they come knocking or spout more shite on TV or radio

QuoteThis is not a great victory or a game changing goal, but it is a point scored against a tenacious opposition.

Nice analogy but continuing that them it's like Kilkenny allowing Tyrone hurlers to score a point in the first 10 minutes of the game whilst promptly sticking the boot back in and battering the shite out of them for the next 60 mins and every time they meet in the future.

;D ;D  Very good Declan and this is a great thread. Excellent posting all round.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Croí na hÉireann on February 08, 2013, 12:41:05 PM
http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2013/02/08/lets-get-something-very-clear (http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2013/02/08/lets-get-something-very-clear)

Good synopsis by McWilliams.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Billys Boots on February 08, 2013, 12:46:56 PM
But is the unreliability of the promissory note not the very reason that the ECB wouldn't lower our interest rate on the bailout deal?  Or is that completely unrelated?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on February 08, 2013, 02:40:45 PM
http://thechatteringmagpie14.blogspot.ie/2013/02/ballyhea-charleville-bank-bailout.html (http://thechatteringmagpie14.blogspot.ie/2013/02/ballyhea-charleville-bank-bailout.html)
Gwan de rebels
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: camanchero on February 08, 2013, 03:22:25 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on February 07, 2013, 08:44:31 PM
Quote from: camanchero on February 07, 2013, 05:08:44 PM

I hope they start up a bolshevik party , I'll vote for them - esp if they say they are going to tell the bondholders to feck off

Nothing like waiting for "Someone else" eh?
Anyway SF in the 26 Cos. fit the bill already  ;D

Anyway the deal done today/last night was the inevitable one - pay back over a longer period so it costs less each year but the overall total is much more .
There will be a lot more of this over the next few years both at Governmantal and private/personal levels.
im too much of a capitalist fat cat.

sf are almost as central policy wise now as ff , fg etc - so they are not the leaders of the revolution !

we still are ending up paying more and we should have followed Icelands example and at least reduced the debt by some magnitude.

we are just going to go further into hock to loan sharks.

IF the public sector was tackled then that would make inroads on the 15bn a year - but turkeys dont vote for christmas and we have wasted too many years maintaining the status quo on this already.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Denn Forever on February 08, 2013, 04:02:04 PM
What if we become super competative again?

Can we pay off the bank debt with our surplus (we can dream)?

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on February 08, 2013, 04:11:19 PM
Quote from: Denn Forever on February 08, 2013, 04:02:04 PM
What if we become super competative again?

Can we pay off the bank debt with our surplus (we can dream)?

It is worth imagining what will happen if we get into surplus in say 8 years:

FG: likely to want to use the surplus to undo recent taxes;
Labour: Likely remove pension levy on Public service and undo any Croke Park 2 cuts;
Sinn Féin: likely want 'to protect the most vulnerable in society';
FF: likely to put it into Qango and tax havens for their buddies;

No one: will have the cop on to reduce the debt at the first opportunity.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: armaghniac on February 08, 2013, 05:09:38 PM
QuoteNo one: will have the cop on to reduce the debt at the first opportunity.

Th impact of debt was reduced from its early 90s highs, although it was only paid back in the odd year, because the economy grew and so the burden became a lot less. What we need coming out of this is a realistic economic model of where exactly we stand, so that good public finances based on borrowing is recognised for what it is. With a realistic model, taxes can be set up to deliver stability over the cycle.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on March 04, 2013, 01:46:00 PM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/9906230/Brave-Ireland-is-the-poster-child-of-EMU-cruelty-and-folly.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/9906230/Brave-Ireland-is-the-poster-child-of-EMU-cruelty-and-folly.html)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Billys Boots on March 04, 2013, 02:28:35 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 04, 2013, 01:46:00 PM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/9906230/Brave-Ireland-is-the-poster-child-of-EMU-cruelty-and-folly.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/9906230/Brave-Ireland-is-the-poster-child-of-EMU-cruelty-and-folly.html)

Very interesting, thanks for that Elmo!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Hardy on March 08, 2013, 10:17:21 AM
Probably been posted before, but anyway ...


Mary is the proprietor of a bar in Dublin . She realises that virtually all of her customers are unemployed alcoholics and, as such, can no longer afford to patronise her bar. To solve this problem, she comes up with new marketing plan that allows her customers to drink now, but pay later. She keeps track of the drinks consumed on a ledger (thereby granting the customers loans).

Word gets around about Mary's "drink now, pay later" marketing strategy and, as a result, increasing numbers of customers flood into Mary's bar. Soon she has the largest sales volume for any bar in Dublin .

By providing her customers freedom from immediate payment demands, Mary gets no resistance when, at regular intervals, she substantially increases her prices for wine and beer, the most consumed beverages. Consequently, Mary's gross sales volume increases massively. A young and dynamic vice-president at the local bank recognises that these customer debts constitute valuable future assets and increases Mary's borrowing limit. He sees no reason for any undue concern, since he has the debts of the unemployed alcoholics as collateral.

At the bank's corporate headquarters, expert traders figure a way to make huge commissions, and transform these customer loans into DRINKBONDS, ALKIBONDS and PUKEBONDS. These securities are then bundled and traded on international security markets. Naive investors don't really understand that the securities being sold to them as AAA secured bonds are really the debts of unemployed alcoholics.

Nevertheless, the bond prices continuously climb, and the securities soon become the hottest-selling items for some of the nation's leading brokerage houses.

One day, even though the bond prices are still climbing, a risk manager at the original local bank decides that the time has come to demand payment on the debts incurred by the drinkers at Mary's bar. He so informs Mary.

Mary then demands payment from her alcoholic patrons, but being unemployed alcoholics they cannot pay back their drinking debts.

Since, Mary cannot fulfil her loan obligations she is forced into bankruptcy. The bar closes and the eleven employees lose their jobs.

Overnight, DRINKBONDS, ALKIBONDS and PUKEBONDS drop in price by 90%.

The collapsed bond asset value destroys the banks liquidity and prevents it from issuing new loans, thus freezing credit and economic activity in the community.

The suppliers of Mary's bar had granted her generous payment extensions and had invested their firms' pension funds in the various BOND securities. They find they are now faced with having to write off her bad debt and with losing over 90% of the presumed value of the bonds. Her wine supplier also claims bankruptcy, closing the doors on a family business that had endured for three generations. Her beer supplier is taken over by a competitor, who immediately closes the local plant and lays off 150 workers.

Fortunately though, the bank, the brokerage houses and their respective executives are saved and bailed out by a multi-billion euro no-strings attached cash infusion from their cronies in Government. The funds required for this bailout are obtained by new taxes levied on employed, middle-class, non-drinkers who have never been in Mary's bar.

Now do you understand the bank bailout?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on March 08, 2013, 10:59:37 AM
Always good to be reminded Hardy
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on March 13, 2013, 03:26:14 PM
http://blogs.ft.com/ft-long-short/2013/03/13/europes-house-price-bubbles-iceland-ireland-and-spain-updated/ (http://blogs.ft.com/ft-long-short/2013/03/13/europes-house-price-bubbles-iceland-ireland-and-spain-updated/)

Interesting view of how Iceland's citizens have got on.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on March 14, 2013, 09:20:25 AM
Noonan refuses to publish supporting documents to NAMA Directions in IBRC liquidation
March 14, 2013 by namawinelake
On 6th February 2013, Minister for Finance Michael Noonan executed one of the most financially significant acts of his two year term in office, the liquidation of Irish Bank Resolution Corporation. It was over two weeks later when we found out in passing that as part of the liquidation, NAMA had been directed by the Minister to provide a €1bn credit facility to IBRC at 1.52% per annum. It was almost a month after, that Minister Noonan finally published the text of the directions he gave to NAMA.

But the directions published are pretty meaningless without the supporting schedules, deeds, transfers and perhaps most importantly, the facility agreement which makes €1bn of our money available to an insolvent bank at 1.52% per annum.

This week in the Dail, the Sinn Fein finance spokesperson Pearse Doherty asked for the supporting documents, and surprise, surprise, they are "commercially sensitive" and Minister Noonan refuses to publish them.

So, the Minister has finally found a means to politically direct NAMA without revealing such directions to the public. Next time, the Direction might just say "Dear NAMA, I command you to carry out the actions listed in the attached Schedule, Sincerely, Michael"

The Directions issued to NAMA as part of the IBRC liquidation represent a departure for this administration. Not only were the Directions published a month later after at least one request from the Opposition, but the Directions omit the meat of what is being directed. This all represents a serious deterioration in transparency, even compared with the previous administration and if allowed to stand, give unfettered direct political control over NAMA. And it's not exactly reassuring to know that the NAMA Board including the so-called independent member, Steven Seelig, promptly approved the Directions given by the Minister.

The full parliamentary question and response are here:

Deputy Pearse Doherty: To ask the Minister for Finance further to the eventual publication on or after 4 March 2013, of the Directions given by him to the National Asset Management Agency in respect of the liquidation of Irish Bank Resolution Corporation, if he will now publish the documents referred to in the directions, namely the facility agreement, deeds, transfers and schedules.

Minister for Finance, Michael Noonan: I do not intend to publish the documents referred to in the directions, at this time, as they contain commercially sensitive information which if released could have a detrimental effect on the outcome for the taxpayer.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on March 17, 2013, 08:39:26 PM
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/video/2013/mar/17/cyprus-cash-machines-dry-tax-video (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/video/2013/mar/17/cyprus-cash-machines-dry-tax-video)

Incredible decision made in Berlin. An instant tax on deposits to help pay for a Bondholder bailout in Cyprus has meant cash machines are already empty. The banks are closed tomorrow and the Government announced another bank holiday on Tuesday, thereby delaying the inevitable run until Wednesday. This monumentally stupid decision may turn out to be the straw.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/mar/17/cyprus-bailout-big-implications-small-rescue (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/mar/17/cyprus-bailout-big-implications-small-rescue)

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on March 17, 2013, 09:13:02 PM
Shocking stuff alright. Will it be the decision that finally makes the worm turn I wonder?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Main Street on March 18, 2013, 02:24:14 PM
Quote from: Declan on March 17, 2013, 09:13:02 PM
Shocking stuff alright. Will it be the decision that finally makes the worm turn I wonder?
Hard to credit even the EU economic 'brains' coming up with this stroke.
At best, they decide not to do it and in the next few days billions will be withdrawn as no one will have confidence in leaving their money in Cyprus banks. The banks won't have enough to cover the withdrawals, not by a long shot.
At worst? who can predict the worst that can happen? Deposits are anyway withdrawn from Cyprus banks because foreign account holders especially, will be peed off, then general confidence in the security of savings accounts in the whole Euro zone area will take a lashing.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on March 18, 2013, 02:33:19 PM
Quote from: Main Street on March 18, 2013, 02:24:14 PM
Quote from: Declan on March 17, 2013, 09:13:02 PM
Shocking stuff alright. Will it be the decision that finally makes the worm turn I wonder?
Hard to credit even the EU economic 'brains' coming up with this stroke.
At best, they decide not to do it and in the next few days billions will be withdrawn as no one will have confidence in leaving their money in Cyprus banks. The banks won't have enough to cover the withdrawals, not by a long shot.
At worst? who can predict the worst that can happen? Deposits are anyway withdrawn from Cyprus banks because foreign account holders especially, will be peed off, then general confidence in the security of savings accounts in the whole Euro zone area will take a lashing.

They claim the reason is because Russians use Cyprus to launder money.

That still makes no sense as:

a) the 'Russians' will take their money (good or bad) elsewhere which hardly helps;
b) using the above flimsy excuse they tax capital which is both a wealth and savings tax;
c) no one but no one will leave money somewhere an overnight tax can be introduced taking 5%-10% of it in tax;

Finally the EU (and the Cypriot PM) argument is that the banks will go bust this week if the deal is not done. Fine. The depositors would be protected on 100% of their deposits under €100,000, by the EU under current arrangements, which is far better for the vast majority than saving the banks and losing 10% of your deposits.

I saw one man on TV who said he took out a loan to pay for his daughter's college education. The loaned money is in the bank now in his name and he will have 10% of that taken off him, even though it isn't his. He will have to pay the 10% tax, and then pay the bank back the deducted money, and pay interest on it all. Stupidity beyond belief.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: armaghniac on March 18, 2013, 02:52:21 PM
QuoteThe depositors would be protected on 100% of their deposits under €100,000, by the EU under current arrangements, which is far better for the vast majority than saving the banks and losing 10% of your deposits.

The problem is that while the EU requires a  €100,000 deposit insurance scheme, it is up to each government to fund it and Cyprus does not have money.

Coming out of this mess the minimum needed is a simple proposition that there is European inspection mechanism over banks and if a bank passes this then Europe insures your basic retail deposit.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Main Street on March 18, 2013, 02:55:59 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 13, 2013, 03:26:14 PM
http://blogs.ft.com/ft-long-short/2013/03/13/europes-house-price-bubbles-iceland-ireland-and-spain-updated/ (http://blogs.ft.com/ft-long-short/2013/03/13/europes-house-price-bubbles-iceland-ireland-and-spain-updated/)

Interesting view of how Iceland's citizens have got on.

Actually the writer makes a balls of his argument which he goes into later in the article.

'The benefit Iceland has seen from its currency devaluation is a matter of money illusion: its people have become poorer in order to make the country's labour (and fish) more competitive and help exports. It could have achieved the same result, at least for the workforce, by wage cuts and the type of "internal devaluation" being pursued by the troubled eurozone periphery – but this is politically much more difficult as workers measure themselves by their nominal wages in local currency, not by their global purchasing power.'

The Is kronur  was not devalued as such in 2008, it collapsed totally, it was artificially propped up to half its pre-Sept 2008  value and this value was artificially maintained by replenishing the Central bank coffers with IMF loans, export earned currency that was forced to be banked in Iceland by law, and severe restrictions on foreign currency transactions  -  meaning that the central bank currency reserves could not be drained by foreign investors bailing out transferring Kronur assets into foreign currency.
It is the foreign currency restrictions which has meant the Kronur has kept to its October 2008  propped up value. And meant that the cost of imports,consumer goods, foodstuffs, the necessities of life, has been kept to to a tolerable level.

The writer is talking through his neo-liberal hole that this could all have been done with just lowering local wages.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Hardy on March 18, 2013, 10:37:19 PM
Surely you couldn't design a scheme better calculated to torpedo confidence in the banking system than to steal people's money from their accounts? Who is going to invest in EU banks now?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: orangeman on March 18, 2013, 11:23:49 PM
Quote from: Hardy on March 18, 2013, 10:37:19 PM
Surely you couldn't design a scheme better calculated to torpedo confidence in the banking system than to steal people's money from their accounts? Who is going to invest in EU banks now?

Very ill advised and poor move by the architects of this move.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: ludermor on March 19, 2013, 12:34:10 AM
I'm in 2 minds about the move, they are hitting people with savings now taking a huge of their bailout from people who can afford it {in theory} , Irish people will be paying far more off for a longer period of time. im not sure which is the better [of 2 really shite ] option.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: seafoid on March 19, 2013, 08:34:16 AM
Quote from: Hardy on March 18, 2013, 10:37:19 PM
Surely you couldn't design a scheme better calculated to torpedo confidence in the banking system than to steal people's money from their accounts? Who is going to invest in EU banks now?
Do you think it was right for the 26 country resident  posters on the board to bail out Anglo, Hardy?
the thing about the whole cat melodoen mess is that there are no easy answers.

"Investors" will sell bank shares in a panic and pick them up again when the yield becomes irresistible. 
It's pathological.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Hardy on March 19, 2013, 08:49:28 AM
Quote from: seafoid on March 19, 2013, 08:34:16 AM
Quote from: Hardy on March 18, 2013, 10:37:19 PM
Surely you couldn't design a scheme better calculated to torpedo confidence in the banking system than to steal people's money from their accounts? Who is going to invest in EU banks now?
Do you think it was right for the 26 country resident  posters on the board to bail out Anglo, Hardy?

Yeah - I thought it was a great idea. Wtf?

Quote
the thing about the whole cat melodoen mess is that there are no easy answers.

"Investors" will sell bank shares in a panic and pick them up again when the yield becomes irresistible. 
It's pathological.

I didn't mean people who buy bank shares. I meant - what do you call people who put their money in the bank and expect to get it back, even with a little interest?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: ludermor on March 19, 2013, 09:45:31 AM
Quote from: hardstation on March 19, 2013, 12:41:44 AM
Quote from: ludermor on March 19, 2013, 12:34:10 AM
I'm in 2 minds about the move, they are hitting people with savings now taking a huge of their bailout from people who can afford it {in theory} , Irish people will be paying far more off for a longer period of time. im not sure which is the better [of 2 really shite ] option.
Really? Jeez...
Yeah really, everyone in ireland will have to pay more through increased taxes over a longer time, Cyprus is taking it now . In the long run what is the difference, people have to pay in each instance.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: seafoid on March 19, 2013, 10:14:38 AM
Quote from: Hardy on March 19, 2013, 08:49:28 AM
Quote from: seafoid on March 19, 2013, 08:34:16 AM
Quote from: Hardy on March 18, 2013, 10:37:19 PM
Surely you couldn't design a scheme better calculated to torpedo confidence in the banking system than to steal people's money from their accounts? Who is going to invest in EU banks now?
Do you think it was right for the 26 country resident  posters on the board to bail out Anglo, Hardy?

Yeah - I thought it was a great idea. Wtf?

Quote
the thing about the whole cat melodoen mess is that there are no easy answers.

"Investors" will sell bank shares in a panic and pick them up again when the yield becomes irresistible. 
It's pathological.

I didn't mean people who buy bank shares. I meant - what do you call people who put their money in the bank and expect to get it back, even with a little interest?
I think there are little people and very wealthy people in that group and they should probably be treated differently.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Main Street on March 19, 2013, 10:23:44 AM
Quote from: Hardy on March 19, 2013, 08:49:28 AM

I didn't mean people who buy bank shares. I meant - what do you call people who put their money in the bank and expect to get it back, even with a little interest?
Of course those people are called depositors/savers, who now in the rampant cynical arrogance of the Troika, face being blatantly pillaged of their assets by direct debit.
First suck them into the Euro then pillage their assets. Cyprus was doing fine before they joined the Euro, it's been downhill all the way since. North Cyprus are doing alright with their semi-independent currency, the turkish Lira.
The defective architecture of the Euro monetary system ensured that the banking/economic sectors would collapse with the inevitability of a pyramid scheme collapse.
The ECB purchase of  bonds was always a rip off, it was not designed to repair the economic collapse, nor the monetary issues. It was designed to recover debts from those who had no responsiblity and hit the least well off the worst.

Shades of reminisces with Nazi Germany, first Hitler savaged the lower income groups, when that was exhausted he went for the middle incomes, as well as pillage and plunder of some reasonably well to do Germans - the Jews, followed by pillage and plunder of other countries' economic assets and turning mass populations into slave labour.


Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Hardy on March 19, 2013, 11:06:45 AM
Quote from: seafoid on March 19, 2013, 10:14:38 AM
Quote from: Hardy on March 19, 2013, 08:49:28 AM
Quote from: seafoid on March 19, 2013, 08:34:16 AM
Quote from: Hardy on March 18, 2013, 10:37:19 PM
Surely you couldn't design a scheme better calculated to torpedo confidence in the banking system than to steal people's money from their accounts? Who is going to invest in EU banks now?
Do you think it was right for the 26 country resident  posters on the board to bail out Anglo, Hardy?

Yeah - I thought it was a great idea. Wtf?

Quote
the thing about the whole cat melodoen mess is that there are no easy answers.

"Investors" will sell bank shares in a panic and pick them up again when the yield becomes irresistible. 
It's pathological.

I didn't mean people who buy bank shares. I meant - what do you call people who put their money in the bank and expect to get it back, even with a little interest?
I think there are little people and very wealthy people in that group and they should probably be treated differently.

I think there are little people, very wealthy people and criminals in that group. Neither the little people nor the very wealthy people should have their money stolen. Apart from the morality of it, there is a consequence of stealing people's money. For the banking system and, by extension, of course, the economy the consequences of stealing from wealthy people, unfortunately, are more severe than those of stealing from the weak.

The criminals, of course, should have their money confiscated.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on March 19, 2013, 11:58:23 AM
http://www.businessinsider.com/gartman-cyprus-stealing-russian-money-2013-3 (http://www.businessinsider.com/gartman-cyprus-stealing-russian-money-2013-3)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: magpie seanie on March 19, 2013, 12:17:21 PM
Its a good job this wasn't suggested in Ireland because our political patsies would have doubtless agreed to it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Billys Boots on March 19, 2013, 12:23:51 PM
Am I correct in thinking that the Cypriot 'authorities' thought that this would not be problematic as the majority of their countries deposits were 'funny' money from Russia? 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: seafoid on March 19, 2013, 12:34:09 PM
Quote from: Hardy on March 19, 2013, 11:06:45 AM
Quote from: seafoid on March 19, 2013, 10:14:38 AM
Quote from: Hardy on March 19, 2013, 08:49:28 AM
Quote from: seafoid on March 19, 2013, 08:34:16 AM
Quote from: Hardy on March 18, 2013, 10:37:19 PM
Surely you couldn't design a scheme better calculated to torpedo confidence in the banking system than to steal people's money from their accounts? Who is going to invest in EU banks now?
Do you think it was right for the 26 country resident  posters on the board to bail out Anglo, Hardy?

Yeah - I thought it was a great idea. Wtf?

Quote
the thing about the whole cat melodoen mess is that there are no easy answers.

"Investors" will sell bank shares in a panic and pick them up again when the yield becomes irresistible. 
It's pathological.

I didn't mean people who buy bank shares. I meant - what do you call people who put their money in the bank and expect to get it back, even with a little interest?
I think there are little people and very wealthy people in that group and they should probably be treated differently.

I think there are little people, very wealthy people and criminals in that group. Neither the little people nor the very wealthy people should have their money stolen. Apart from the morality of it, there is a consequence of stealing people's money. For the banking system and, by extension, of course, the economy the consequences of stealing from wealthy people, unfortunately, are more severe than those of stealing from the weak.

The criminals, of course, should have their money confiscated.
Or maybe they could just convert bank debt into equity
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on March 19, 2013, 01:22:06 PM
QuoteAm I correct in thinking that the Cypriot 'authorities' thought that this would not be problematic as the majority of their countries deposits were 'funny' money from Russia?

That's my read of it
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on March 19, 2013, 01:39:30 PM
Continuing on the good news:
Bank of Ireland annual report reveals that CEO Richie Boucher was paid €910,000 last year. :o :o
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: magpie seanie on March 19, 2013, 01:52:00 PM
Quote from: Declan on March 19, 2013, 01:39:30 PM
Continuing on the good news:
Bank of Ireland annual report reveals that CEO Richie Boucher was paid €910,000 last year. :o :o

Is that not illegal?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: magpie seanie on March 19, 2013, 04:12:19 PM
What is the limit does anyone know?

I see he "waived" 67k of it. 67k 0 imagine being able to "waive" that much money. I assume by "waive" they mean - don't pay until I leave/the public anger dies down.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on March 19, 2013, 04:17:05 PM
Yep -its hard to get really good people to run the banks don't you know ;)

On the bigger picture -  BBC Breaking News ‏@BBCBreaking
Royal Air Force flight heading to Cyprus with 1m euros in emergency cash for British military staff and families, Ministry of Defence says.

Now this Cyprus thing could really be the beginning of the end
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: magpie seanie on March 19, 2013, 04:21:02 PM
Quote from: Declan on March 19, 2013, 04:17:05 PM
Yep -its hard to get really good people to run the banks don't you know ;)

On the bigger picture -  BBC Breaking News ‏@BBCBreaking
Royal Air Force flight heading to Cyprus with 1m euros in emergency cash for British military staff and families, Ministry of Defence says.

Now this Cyprus thing could really be the beginning of the end

You said it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on March 19, 2013, 04:27:30 PM
Listen to this - Athanasios Orphanides, former governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus, talks about a proposed unprecedented levy on Cyprus's bank deposits and the potential impact on Europe's financial system. Orphanides speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." Megan Greene, chief economist at Maverick Intelligence, also speaks.

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/orphanides-on-cyprus-bailout-europe-s-banks-Aw79nWd1QH~jz5tVDF7cRA.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/video/orphanides-on-cyprus-bailout-europe-s-banks-Aw79nWd1QH~jz5tVDF7cRA.html)

Cuts straight to the chase - We're witnessing the slow death of the European project. We have decisions taken by strongest government in Europe that have been spreading misery sequentially to citizens
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on March 19, 2013, 05:13:30 PM
Quote from: Declan on March 19, 2013, 04:27:30 PM
Listen to this - Athanasios Orphanides, former governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus, talks about a proposed unprecedented levy on Cyprus's bank deposits and the potential impact on Europe's financial system. Orphanides speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." Megan Greene, chief economist at Maverick Intelligence, also speaks.

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/orphanides-on-cyprus-bailout-europe-s-banks-Aw79nWd1QH~jz5tVDF7cRA.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/video/orphanides-on-cyprus-bailout-europe-s-banks-Aw79nWd1QH~jz5tVDF7cRA.html)

Cuts straight to the chase - We're witnessing the slow death of the European project. We have decisions taken by strongest government in Europe that have been spreading misery sequentially to citizens

I think this started right at the beginning. When the Euro started, our cost and standard of living along with most of the eurozone's were well below Germany's. The cost of living rose quickly, putting pressure on wages to match which artificially improved the standard of living. This had the effect of making Germany's economy more productive while having the opposite effect on most of the rest, purely by the introduction of the Euro.

The increase in wages (thank you Bertie) was mismanaged in different ways in each country (€50,000 annual pensions for hairdressers in Greece, property boom here and in Spain etc.). Germany's 'prudent' behaviour meant low yields there, so their banks lent to the high yielding lunatics here (free movement of Capital is a priority). High yields usually means high risk, but not in the Eurozone it doesn't. Thus free movement of capital isn't matched by an equivalent movement of risk.

So in conclusion for us the Euro, made us unproductive, allowed Germany and others to take high yields while fuelling a disastrous property boom, forced the pillaging of for example private pensions and finally the Euro heads have ordered us all to pay back the speculators.

Meanwhile for Germany the Euro artificially made them more productive, gave them high yields in the good times and got the PIIGS to pay off their risky investments in the bad times.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: seafoid on March 19, 2013, 06:09:27 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 19, 2013, 05:13:30 PM
Quote from: Declan on March 19, 2013, 04:27:30 PM
Listen to this - Athanasios Orphanides, former governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus, talks about a proposed unprecedented levy on Cyprus's bank deposits and the potential impact on Europe's financial system. Orphanides speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." Megan Greene, chief economist at Maverick Intelligence, also speaks.

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/orphanides-on-cyprus-bailout-europe-s-banks-Aw79nWd1QH~jz5tVDF7cRA.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/video/orphanides-on-cyprus-bailout-europe-s-banks-Aw79nWd1QH~jz5tVDF7cRA.html)

Cuts straight to the chase - We're witnessing the slow death of the European project. We have decisions taken by strongest government in Europe that have been spreading misery sequentially to citizens

I think this started right at the beginning. When the Euro started, our cost and standard of living along with most of the eurozone's were well below Germany's. The cost of living rose quickly, putting pressure on wages to match which artificially improved the standard of living. This had the effect of making Germany's economy more productive while having the opposite effect on most of the rest, purely by the introduction of the Euro.

The increase in wages (thank you Bertie) was mismanaged in different ways in each country (€50,000 annual pensions for hairdressers in Greece, property boom here and in Spain etc.). Germany's 'prudent' behaviour meant low yields there, so their banks lent to the high yielding lunatics here (free movement of Capital is a priority). High yields usually means high risk, but not in the Eurozone it doesn't. Thus free movement of capital isn't matched by an equivalent movement of risk.

So in conclusion for us the Euro, made us unproductive, allowed Germany and others to take high yields while fuelling a disastrous property boom, forced the pillaging of for example private pensions and finally the Euro heads have ordered us all to pay back the speculators.

Meanwhile for Germany the Euro artificially made them more productive, gave them high yields in the good times and got the PIIGS to pay off their risky investments in the bad times.

This article by George Soros is worth a read

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2012/sep/27/tragedy-european-union-and-how-resolve-it/
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on March 19, 2013, 06:12:25 PM
Well for all those funds being laundered in Cypriot banks German banks are offering incentives to transfer those funds to a German bank. You can't make this up.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-19/german-bankers-generously-offer-cypriots-helping-hand-if-they-transfer-deposits (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-19/german-bankers-generously-offer-cypriots-helping-hand-if-they-transfer-deposits)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on March 19, 2013, 06:38:33 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2013/0319/377292-cyprus-bailout/ (http://www.rte.ie/news/2013/0319/377292-cyprus-bailout/)

Cypriot Parliament voted no. Now what? Vote again?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on March 19, 2013, 07:41:11 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 19, 2013, 06:09:27 PM
This article by George Soros is worth a read

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2012/sep/27/tragedy-european-union-and-how-resolve-it/

Amazing letter. I wish I was smart enough to understand it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: magpie seanie on March 19, 2013, 08:39:22 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 19, 2013, 07:41:11 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 19, 2013, 06:09:27 PM
This article by George Soros is worth a read

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2012/sep/27/tragedy-european-union-and-how-resolve-it/

Amazing letter. I wish I was smart enough to understand it.

Brilliant. I haven't read anything as in depth as that on this subject. Truly fascinating and seems to confirm a lot of what I and many others not in the political classes suspected.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Dougal Maguire on March 19, 2013, 10:10:25 PM
I think Ireland should leap at the opportunity which the Cyprus crisis is throwing up and speak out in support of them. We could potentially net ourselves a dozen votes in the Eurovision if we play our cards right
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Main Street on March 19, 2013, 10:18:31 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on March 19, 2013, 08:39:22 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 19, 2013, 07:41:11 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 19, 2013, 06:09:27 PM
This article by George Soros is worth a read

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2012/sep/27/tragedy-european-union-and-how-resolve-it/

Amazing letter. I wish I was smart enough to understand it.

Brilliant. I haven't read anything as in depth as that on this subject. Truly fascinating and seems to confirm a lot of what I and many others not in the political classes suspected.
Please expand on what you find fascinating about that article.

Personally I find it to be utterly vacant, re ideological, moral and economic plan of recovery for the Euro zone mess. Not only that, he utterly fails to attempt to understand why deliberate decisions, negatively affecting the citizens of the Euro zone, were made by the Troika.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: From the Bunker on March 19, 2013, 10:18:54 PM
Quote from: Dougal Maguire on March 19, 2013, 10:10:25 PM
I think Ireland should leap at the opportunity which the Cyprus crisis is throwing up and speak out in support of them. We could potentially net ourselves a dozen votes in the Eurovision if we play our cards right

;D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: magpie seanie on March 19, 2013, 10:26:42 PM
Quote from: Main Street on March 19, 2013, 10:18:31 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on March 19, 2013, 08:39:22 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 19, 2013, 07:41:11 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 19, 2013, 06:09:27 PM
This article by George Soros is worth a read

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2012/sep/27/tragedy-european-union-and-how-resolve-it/

Amazing letter. I wish I was smart enough to understand it.

Brilliant. I haven't read anything as in depth as that on this subject. Truly fascinating and seems to confirm a lot of what I and many others not in the political classes suspected.
Please expand on what you find fascinating about that article.

Personally I find it to be utterly vacant, re ideological, moral and economic plan of recovery for the Euro zone mess. Not only that, he utterly fails to attempt to understand why deliberate decisions, negatively affecting the citizens of the Euro zone, were made by the Troika.

I thought he did quite clearly.

The subject is fascinating and this is a clear explanation of why the problem occurred and offers solutions to the crisis. You must not agree?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: seafoid on March 20, 2013, 05:13:09 AM
Quote from: muppet on March 19, 2013, 07:41:11 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 19, 2013, 06:09:27 PM
This article by George Soros is worth a read

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2012/sep/27/tragedy-european-union-and-how-resolve-it/

Amazing letter. I wish I was smart enough to understand it.
Plámás
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on March 20, 2013, 08:44:42 AM
See the latest picture of Cyprus after the meeting in Moscow today:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BFyQbxDCIAA9Aq2.jpg:large)

As the count Gurdgiev says - You have to laugh... or cry... or both...Merkel sends a reminder: CYPRUS MUST TALK ONLY TO TROIKA, NOT RUSSIA (a bit late)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on March 20, 2013, 12:50:38 PM
Keeps getting better for the Cypriots
(http://sphotos-g.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash3/576131_537640072954993_1370962598_n.jpg)

And in more breaking news:
PIMCO Worlds Largest Global Income Manager To Drop Bonds In Eurozone
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/19/pimco-european-exposure_n_2908695.html

The eurozone, we believe, will remain mired in its driver-passenger conflict. While the U.S. will surely provide confidence to some passengers in the eurozone car, it is highly unlikely in our view that eurozone policymakers will make substantive progress in the direction of the U.S. during 2013.


Anyone willing to bet what happens next?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on March 20, 2013, 04:30:18 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 20, 2013, 05:13:09 AM
Quote from: muppet on March 19, 2013, 07:41:11 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 19, 2013, 06:09:27 PM
This article by George Soros is worth a read

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2012/sep/27/tragedy-european-union-and-how-resolve-it/

Amazing letter. I wish I was smart enough to understand it.
Plámás

Not at all, I came to the conclusion that Germany should be booted out of the Euro ages ago. I just don't know enough to argue why properly. At least he does.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on March 21, 2013, 12:01:54 PM
And guess who was the genius representing us at this? Brian Hayes :o :o :o
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/03/21/uk-eurozone-cyprus-call-idUKBRE92K0DW20130321 (http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/03/21/uk-eurozone-cyprus-call-idUKBRE92K0DW20130321)

And the Germans still think its OK to steal depositors money - "Even 12% tax on Cyprus deposits "is not too much,"" says Merkel ally Fuchs says in Bloomberg TV interview.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: seafoid on March 21, 2013, 06:08:48 PM
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/rolling-the-dice-in-cyprus-by-ashoka-mody
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on March 24, 2013, 02:38:44 PM
http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2013/03/24/are-your-deposits-in-irish-banks-safe/ (http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2013/03/24/are-your-deposits-in-irish-banks-safe/)

Oh yes, in the past week Labour's chairman of the Oireachtas finance committee Ciaran Lynch and Fine Gael's jobs minister, Richard Bruton have both indicated that a levy on sub-€100k could be on the cards despite the existence of the sub-€100k guarantee. There seems to be a feeling that the guarantee only applies if a bank is allowed to go bust, but if there was an intervention before the bank was actually liquidated then all depositors including those with sub-€100k deposits would face "levies" despite the existence of the deposit guarantee scheme. Minister Bruton said on radio today that Cyprus imposing a levy on sub-€100k deposits was "in the remit" of the Cypriot government. The experience of this Government taking €1.88bn from private pensions (http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2011/05/10/jobs-initiative-can't-conceal-unprecedented-raid-on-citizens'-pensions/) between 2011-2014 to fund the Jobs Initiative (mostly the reduction in VAT on certain services), would also make you ill-at-ease that the Government would regard as sacred the guarantee for sub-€100k depositors.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: armaghniac on March 24, 2013, 07:31:51 PM
Basically the government gives a whack of money to the bank and levies the depositors. The bank stays solvent and this is a "tax".

QuoteThe experience of this Government taking €1.88bn from private pensions between 2011-2014 to fund the Jobs Initiative (mostly the reduction in VAT on certain services), would also make you ill-at-ease that the Government would regard as sacred the guarantee for sub-€100k depositors.

The government takes money from depositors every year, it is called DIRT.

However sub 1% taxes are one thing, 10% taxes another.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on March 24, 2013, 08:10:14 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on March 24, 2013, 07:31:51 PM
Basically the government gives a whack of money to the bank and levies the depositors. The bank stays solvent and this is a "tax".

QuoteThe experience of this Government taking €1.88bn from private pensions between 2011-2014 to fund the Jobs Initiative (mostly the reduction in VAT on certain services), would also make you ill-at-ease that the Government would regard as sacred the guarantee for sub-€100k depositors.

The government takes money from depositors every year, it is called DIRT.

However sub 1% taxes are one thing, 10% taxes another.

But that is a tax on interest surely?

This is a tax on savings/wealth.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on March 24, 2013, 08:15:30 PM
Declan Ganley has tweeted a video outlining ECB strategy to deal with the Eurozone Financial Crisis:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hz65AOjabtM&feature=youtu.be (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hz65AOjabtM&feature=youtu.be)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on March 25, 2013, 11:49:02 AM
http://trueeconomics.blogspot.be/2013/03/2532013-bankrupted-cyprus-aka-rescue.html?spref=tw (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.be/2013/03/2532013-bankrupted-cyprus-aka-rescue.html?spref=tw)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on March 25, 2013, 12:36:14 PM
Quote from: Declan on March 25, 2013, 11:49:02 AM
http://trueeconomics.blogspot.be/2013/03/2532013-bankrupted-cyprus-aka-rescue.html?spref=tw (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.be/2013/03/2532013-bankrupted-cyprus-aka-rescue.html?spref=tw)

And on it goes.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: highorlow on March 25, 2013, 02:24:09 PM
All I can say is God help the youngsters he is teaching Finance to in Trinity.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on March 26, 2013, 11:10:25 AM
Interesting article here - Can we speculate as to where it'll end?
http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-cyprus-is-no-longer-a-full-member-of-the-eurozone-2013-3 (http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-cyprus-is-no-longer-a-full-member-of-the-eurozone-2013-3)

Also great to see that we've turned the corner!! - http://cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/prices/2013/rppi_feb2013.pdf (http://cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/prices/2013/rppi_feb2013.pdf)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on March 26, 2013, 06:03:11 PM
http://www.bondvigilantes.com/blog/2013/03/26/germany-doesnt-like-its-own-fiscal-union-so-why-would-it-ever-agree-upon-a-european-one/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=germany-doesnt-like-its-own-fiscal-union-so-why-would-it-ever-agree-upon-a-european-one (http://www.bondvigilantes.com/blog/2013/03/26/germany-doesnt-like-its-own-fiscal-union-so-why-would-it-ever-agree-upon-a-european-one/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=germany-doesnt-like-its-own-fiscal-union-so-why-would-it-ever-agree-upon-a-european-one)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on March 27, 2013, 09:28:53 AM
Interesting article muppet
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on March 29, 2013, 11:15:26 AM
Good piece by Bloomberg on how Germany's been bailed out by Eurozone just as much as Greece

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-23/merkel-should-know-her-country-has-been-bailed-out-too.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-23/merkel-should-know-her-country-has-been-bailed-out-too.html)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on April 05, 2013, 12:03:24 PM
All good on the World economic front I see. It's really incredible what's going on and yet the commentary here is so weak and biased from the established media it beggars belief

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-05/deutsche-bank-central-bank-intervention-we-are-flying-blind (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-05/deutsche-bank-central-bank-intervention-we-are-flying-blind)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on April 05, 2013, 12:12:47 PM
Quote from: Declan on April 05, 2013, 12:03:24 PM
All good on the World economic front I see. It's really incredible what's going on and yet the commentary here is so weak and biased from the established media it beggars belief

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-05/deutsche-bank-central-bank-intervention-we-are-flying-blind (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-05/deutsche-bank-central-bank-intervention-we-are-flying-blind)

Yip,  coming up to half time, we are 5 -10 to no score down and the media are screaming at us to take off the corner forward.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Dinny Breen on April 05, 2013, 02:37:10 PM
I'd hate to ring the Samaritans and have one you two on the other...
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on April 05, 2013, 02:51:38 PM
Ah now I have a very calming voice
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Bord na Mona man on April 05, 2013, 04:22:48 PM
Mortgage arrears and strategic defaulters is now coming onto the radar a lot more.
Though if the IMF didn't highlight it, the (state owned) banks and government would happily not deal with the repossession issue.
There is still a section of the population who mistakenly think they'll qualify for some sort of amnesty if they stop making mortgage payments.

http://qz.com/50615/welcome-to-ireland-where-house-payments-are-optional-apparently/ (http://qz.com/50615/welcome-to-ireland-where-house-payments-are-optional-apparently/)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on April 05, 2013, 04:51:36 PM
Quote from: Dinny Breen on April 05, 2013, 02:37:10 PM
I'd hate to ring the Samaritans and have one you two on the other...

Have yous Elites no heart at all?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on April 05, 2013, 06:45:17 PM
Don't read this Dinny:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100619442 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/100619442)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Dinny Breen on April 05, 2013, 10:40:03 PM
I only use bitcoins  >:( so doesn't bother me at all......
Title: This might be interesting...........
Post by: muppet on April 06, 2013, 12:30:08 AM
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/3a4aaed2-9e36-11e2-9ccc-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2PdPL2UhL (http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/3a4aaed2-9e36-11e2-9ccc-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2PdPL2UhL)



April 5, 2013 10:49 pm
Portugal court rules against austerity
By Peter Wise in Lisbon
A Portuguese court has ruled that tough austerity measures aimed at keeping the country's €78bn bailout programme on track are in breach of the constitution, blowing a hole in the government's 2013 budget.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: From the Bunker on April 11, 2013, 07:39:57 PM
Check this out from 12:50 on! Programme talks about AIB and Ireland. You were warned!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-QuQ1KAoQfc (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-QuQ1KAoQfc)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: gerrykeegan on April 11, 2013, 07:59:36 PM
Quote from: From the Bunker on April 11, 2013, 07:39:57 PM
Check this out from 12:50 on! Programme talks about AIB and Ireland. You were warned!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-QuQ1KAoQfc (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-QuQ1KAoQfc)

Are you Muppet's and Seafoid's long lost brother by any chance?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on April 16, 2013, 03:29:47 PM
Big rumours that SIPTU members have rejected Croke Park 2 - Interesting times ahead
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Billys Boots on April 16, 2013, 03:56:02 PM
Quote from: Declan on April 16, 2013, 03:29:47 PM
Big rumours that SIPTU members have rejected Croke Park 2 - Interesting times ahead

Apparently (according to Mrs Boots) Clare Daly has tweeted that it's indeed been rejected by SIPTU.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: armaghniac on April 16, 2013, 04:27:34 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2013/0416/381...ark-agreement/

SIPTU has voted to reject the proposed extension to the Croke Park agreement by a margin of 53.7% against 46.3% in favour.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on April 16, 2013, 04:58:43 PM
See that INTO as well have rejected it- Maybe the centenary of the lockout will be celebrated/replicated after all
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: armaghniac on April 16, 2013, 05:17:46 PM
Nurses INO had 95% reject, haven't heard about INTO, but they will reject also, I imagine.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on April 17, 2013, 09:15:27 AM
Does this Excel spreadsheet error invalidate case for austerity?
Author: Dan Jones
IFAonline | 17 Apr 2013 | 07:45
Categories: Economics / Markets Topics: GDP

A new academic paper suggests an influential study used to argue the case for austerity contains a number of flaws - including a simple Excel spreadsheet error.
Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff's 2010 study 'Growth in a Time of Debt' found economic growth goes into reverse when a country's public debt to GDP ratio exceeds 90%.

The findings have subsequently been highlighted by politicians on both sides of the Atlantic, including European Commissioner Olli Rehn, as a reason for implementing stringent deficit reduction plans.

Yesterday, however, a trio of economists said the study's methodology contains several flaws - including an Excel error which meant the relatively resilient GDP growth seen in debt-saddled Belgium was simply omitted from the results.

"First, Reinhart and Rogoff selectively exclude years of high debt and average growth. Second, they use a debatable method to weight the countries. Third, there also appears to be a coding error that excludes high-debt and average-growth countries," said Thomas Herndon, Michael Ash and Robert Pollin, authors of the new study.
"All three bias in favour of their result, and without them you do not get their controversial result."
When these factors are taken into account, the average real GDP growth rate for countries with debt to GDP of over 90% stands at 2.2%, not the 0.1% contraction found by Reinhart and Rogoff, according to the new paper.
Responding to the claims, Reinhart and Rogoff did not address the Excel issue, but noted the new results still suggested countries with high debt to GDP ratios experience lower levels of growth than their peers.
"The cumulative effects of small growth differences are potentially quite large.  It is utterly misleading to speak of a 1% growth differential that lasts 10-25 years as small," they said.
The findings emerge at a time when Chancellor George Osborne is coming under growing pressure to reassess the UK's deficit reduction plan as growth stagnates.
The Office for Budget Responsibility now expects public sector net debt as a proportion of GDP - currently around 75.9% - to keep rising until 2016-17, when it will reach a peak of 85.6%.


Read more: http://www.investmentweek.co.uk/investment-week/news/2261942/does-this-spreadsheet-error-invalidate-the-case-for-austerity#ixzz2QhrW5pxw
IFA Online - News, blogs and analysis for IFAs. Visit the website now.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: highorlow on April 17, 2013, 09:37:16 AM
Can't believe the fools rejected this.

They will all get an across the board levy and cut now with the well off Civil Servants benefiting. I was talking to a girl last summer who emigrated to Oz 5 years ago, not because she had to but because she was sick and tired of the sense of entitlement people have in this country and needed out. Her point is well and truly reinforced by this vote result.

Along with the cut they should make all the ones over 55 at a certain grade compulsory redundant.

This will probably benefit the country in the longer term by breaking up the union cartel. Jack O'Connor seems to think that we can go to our lenders and spoof them that we can find 5 billion under a mattress and shur we are already half way there with the promissory note. He is some twit and a highly paid professional spoofer but his time is now running out also.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Rossfan on April 17, 2013, 10:47:57 AM
Your type tried to break the Unions in 1913 as well High or low. It always seems to be the "magic fix" for the right wing ideologue types.
Had you been around then you'd no doubt have been screaming for Connolly to be executed.
Maybe when the real guilty cartel like Fingers/Fitzp and all the sc**bag developrs start paying the Irish taxpayer what they owe we might get somewhere in this Country.
That will never happen esp when the right wing blueshirts wouldn't countenance a rise in the Social Charge on earnings in excess of €100k p a.
As everyone knows the domestic economy will only pick up when the plain people have a few € in their pockets to spend.
The over €100k people usually have all they want and their excess money goes overseas.
But the right wing answer is to screw the poorer classes and don't dare touch their well heeled mates.
And then they scratch their thick heads and wonder why the domestic economy isn't doing well and blame the public service and "THEUNIONS" ::)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: johnneycool on April 17, 2013, 12:01:42 PM
Quote from: highorlow on April 17, 2013, 09:37:16 AM
Can't believe the fools rejected this.

They will all get an across the board levy and cut now with the well off Civil Servants benefiting. I was talking to a girl last summer who emigrated to Oz 5 years ago, not because she had to but because she was sick and tired of the sense of entitlement people have in this country and needed out. Her point is well and truly reinforced by this vote result.

Along with the cut they should make all the ones over 55 at a certain grade compulsory redundant.

This will probably benefit the country in the longer term by breaking up the union cartel. Jack O'Connor seems to think that we can go to our lenders and spoof them that we can find 5 billion under a mattress and shur we are already half way there with the promissory note. He is some twit and a highly paid professional spoofer but his time is now running out also.

I thought Jack O'Connor and the SIPTU leadership recommended acceptance of Croke Park II, but they have to go by the wishes of the majority that voted, I suppose that's democracy at work for you.

How much of a cut were the TD's and government ministers going to take?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Rossie11 on April 17, 2013, 01:17:10 PM
I work in private sector and am glad they rejected. There is a whole raft of savings that can be made before they go near wages.
Even if they have to near wages it wasn't been done in a fair manner.
It shows what a complete farce of a deal it was when it was rejected for a host of various reasons.
Jack O Connor is totally out of touch with the people he represents yet will continue to hang onto his job and pension
even though the people he supposed to lead reject his deal.

Did anyone else feel sorry for Howlin last night when he was near tears that he had to take a call from the Troika to discuss this? Boo feckin Hoo Brendan

I can imagine what he told them was something along the lines of "dont worry we will have another go at it, similar to Nice and Lisbon 2 and we will have you the answer you want by July"
Instead of telling them we are still living in democracy, this isn't working now what is plan B.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Hound on April 17, 2013, 01:20:39 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on April 17, 2013, 10:47:57 AM
Maybe when the real guilty cartel like Fingers/Fitzp and all the sc**bag developrs start paying the Irish taxpayer what they owe we might get somewhere in this Country.
That will never happen esp when the right wing blueshirts wouldn't countenance a rise in the Social Charge on earnings in excess of €100k p a.
As everyone knows the domestic economy will only pick up when the plain people have a few € in their pockets to spend.
The over €100k people usually have all they want and their excess money goes overseas.
But the right wing answer is to screw the poorer classes and don't dare touch their well heeled mates.
And then they scratch their thick heads and wonder why the domestic economy isn't doing well and blame the public service and "THEUNIONS" ::)

You're forgetting that while the bankers, developers, politicians, etc were building this false boom, a big spin off of this was the decisions to increase public pay to unaffordably high levels for absolutely no reason.

But its certainly not easy for anyone to agree to a wage reduction, especially when things might already be tight.

Extra income tax on the higher paid is not the answer either, they already pay more income tax than most in the EU.

Going to be very interesting to see what happens next.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Billys Boots on April 17, 2013, 01:47:58 PM
QuoteYou're forgetting that while the bankers, developers, politicians, etc were building this false boom, a big spin off of this was the decisions to increase public pay to unaffordably high levels for absolutely no reason.

And that Fianna Fáil 'created' 100,000 public sector 'jobs' that were not really needed (well there was no measured increase in public sector effectiveness as a result), and we're now in a position where it's too expensive to reduce these numbers to effective levels.  Not that I blame public sector workers that are now horrified by the pay cuts that they're expected to carry - they shouldn't.  This post is just a reminder that the current Govt are just trying (and not really succeeding) to clean up FF's mess. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: highorlow on April 17, 2013, 02:28:26 PM
QuoteMaybe when the real guilty cartel like Fingers/Fitzp and all the sc**bag developrs start paying the Irish taxpayer what they owe we might get somewhere in this Country.
That will never happen esp when the right wing blueshirts wouldn't countenance a rise in the Social Charge on earnings in excess of €100k p a.
As everyone knows the domestic economy will only pick up when the plain people have a few € in their pockets to spend.
The over €100k people usually have all they want and their excess money goes overseas.

This Sinn Fein argument is fantasy economics. The Fat Cat developers created a Fat Public Service which needs to be cut back.

The majority left in this country except the Public Servants have taken a hit since 2010. In fact with grocery's deflating, sun holidays getting cheaper and tins in the off licence reducing all the time in price the Public Servants are likely to be better off.

It's unfair to the community at large that the Public Servants won't do the honorable thing and lump in like the majority of us especially since the larger hit in CP II affected the ones over €65k.

Your answer appears to be tax the private sector more to fund the comfortably employer public sector lifers.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: highorlow on April 17, 2013, 02:46:03 PM
QuoteI thought Jack O'Connor and the SIPTU leadership recommended acceptance of Croke Park II

He did. What I was referring too was his new position as of yesterday. Now that things have gone against him and he miss-judged his own members views he seems to think we can magic up 5 billion without making any cuts to PS pay whatsoever. He was saying this last night on the v brown show.

He reckons we have 2 billion for starters via the promissory note and by having a stimulus package in place worth 7 billion this would 'create' a further 3 billion. VB failed to question where the funds were coming from for this magic 7 billion stimulus. Jack also went back to the trophy homes argument, don't think there are many of these left in the country, again VB let him off the hook.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on April 17, 2013, 03:20:40 PM
Anyone any appetite for chasing these boyos??
http://www.ipsnews.net/2013/04/momentum-builds-in-u-s-beyond-to-end-corporate-tax-evasion/ (http://www.ipsnews.net/2013/04/momentum-builds-in-u-s-beyond-to-end-corporate-tax-evasion/)

or even these?
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/irish-links-to-vast-web-of-secret-offshore-accounts-1.1349456 (http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/irish-links-to-vast-web-of-secret-offshore-accounts-1.1349456)

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Rossfan on April 17, 2013, 03:55:55 PM
Quote from: Billys Boots on April 17, 2013, 01:47:58 PM
QuoteYou're forgetting that while the bankers, developers, politicians, etc were building this false boom, a big spin off of this was the decisions to increase public pay to unaffordably high levels for absolutely no reason.

And that Fianna Fáil 'created' 100,000 public sector 'jobs' that were not really needed (well there was no measured increase in public sector effectiveness as a result),

Only the top public service jobs' pay went beyond the bounds of dacency. Most others were only getting rises to try and keep up with the bubble inspired price increases - inflation began rising in 2000  ;)

100,000 extra public service jobs  :o-- get a bloody grip ladeen.
Firstly the population increased from 3.6 m to 4.4m from 96 to 2011 so there was need for extra  teachers Gardai ,civil Service Health workers etc.
But to say the number increased by 100,000 is of course pure fantasy.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Rossfan on April 17, 2013, 04:06:15 PM
Quote from: Declan on April 17, 2013, 03:20:40 PM
Anyone any appetite for chasing these boyos??
http://www.ipsnews.net/2013/04/momentum-builds-in-u-s-beyond-to-end-corporate-tax-evasion/ (http://www.ipsnews.net/2013/04/momentum-builds-in-u-s-beyond-to-end-corporate-tax-evasion/)

or even these?
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/irish-links-to-vast-web-of-secret-offshore-accounts-1.1349456 (http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/irish-links-to-vast-web-of-secret-offshore-accounts-1.1349456)

No.
Much easier to target Carers or remove the €125 exemption from PRSI.
That way you get to put the boot into the lowest earners while of course insisting that you can't be going around taxing high earners.
Someone said Irish high earners are the highest taxed in the EU .... :o
I'd like to see the real figures though  ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: highorlow on April 17, 2013, 04:06:38 PM
Quote100,000 extra public service jobs  -- get a bloody grip ladeen.

That figure is incorrect.

Since 2008 the actual number has dropped from a peak of 427,000 in Q4 2008 to 382,000 at the end of 2012 but if you factor in the increments (pay increases) any cost savings on these numbers is cancelled out. We are still paying the same cost or even more for PS pay now than we were in 2008, CP I didn't have any effect whatsoever.

382,000 Public Servants is still top heavy for the size of the place.

*note figs include approx 50k in semi states.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Billys Boots on April 17, 2013, 04:54:54 PM
QuoteBut to say the number increased by 100,000 is of course pure fantasy.

Yep, it's easier to make it up that do your research - pure FF sleeveenism, you should be very proud.

Less than 10 mins research will show you that there were 221,000 (Committee for Public Service Research, IPA 1999) public sector workers in Ireland in 1996.  Are you capable of doing the sums Sleeveen, or do you want me to do them for you? 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: armaghniac on April 17, 2013, 07:12:47 PM
QuoteThe majority left in this country except the Public Servants have taken a hit since 2010.

The majority haven't really taken such a hit, wages are increasing, albeit slightly. Household incomes are increasing (http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/economy/2012/isanonfin_q42012.pdf) and unemployment hasn't gone up much in this time. Some extra taxes have come along, but public servants have to pay these also.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Rossfan on April 17, 2013, 07:26:44 PM
Quote from: Billys Boots on April 17, 2013, 04:54:54 PM
QuoteBut to say the number increased by 100,000 is of course pure fantasy.

Yep, it's easier to make it up that do your research - pure FF sleeveenism, you should be very proud.

Less than 10 mins research will show you that there were 221,000 (Committee for Public Service Research, IPA 1999) public sector workers in Ireland in 1996.  Are you capable of doing the sums Sleeveen, or do you want me to do them for you?


Without any inaccurate disgraceful disgusting name calling (unlike you ) -

Table 2.1 - Public service numbers 2001-2009
             2001                    2009
Health     92,996         111,800
Education 73,295         92,887
Justice     12,460          15,142
Defence   11,808          10,895
Civil Service 36,092      38,500
State agencies 11,086 12,313
Local Authorities 32,062 33,898
Public Service 269,799    316,656

Increase of 47,000 in 9 years of which approx 38,000 in Health and Education  most of which I would suggest were as a result of population increases.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: highorlow on April 17, 2013, 10:09:02 PM
QuoteThe majority haven't really taken such a hit,

Tell that to the additional 250k people on the dole added to the fact that the majority of workers have been hit with on average 25% pay cuts on top of the additional taxes.

Also the people in general in the construction sector that have to commute over and back to the uk week in week out for work.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: highorlow on April 17, 2013, 10:13:54 PM
QuoteLess than 10 mins research will show you that there were 221,000

so the 100k increase is a correct statement then if the semi state workers are excluded.

big big redundancies coming down the line so. shur that carry on and wastage can't be accepted in any business.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Rossfan on April 17, 2013, 10:17:22 PM

"Tell that to the additional 250k people on the dole added to the fact that the majority of workers have been hit with on average 25% pay cuts on top of the additional taxes.
Also the people in general in the construction sector that have to commute over and back to the uk week in week out for work".


Most of the 250,000 extra added to the dole were in 08 and 09.
Most people in multi nationals have been getting increases.
Construction was bound to get fcuked up as it was in an artificial unsustainable bubble accounting for about 25% of GDP which of course was total madness. In those years there were a good number of English working on building here.
90,000 new "units" being built every year for a population of 4.4m. Britain and France were building less than that for 10 or 12 times the population.
Absolute madness all added to by FF via the Galway Tent.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Rossfan on April 17, 2013, 10:21:57 PM
Quote from: highorlow on April 17, 2013, 10:13:54 PM
[ so the 100k increase is a correct statement then if the semi state workers are excluded.- NO
big big redundancies coming down the line so. shur that carry on and wastage can't be accepted in any business.
There will be no "big redundancies"
Public Service isn't a "Business".
It does the things no "Business" would do as there's no profit in it.
Or maybe you want the schools and hospitals closed.
Sure who needs teachers or doctors/nurses or the like  ::)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: armaghniac on April 17, 2013, 10:38:24 PM

QuoteTell that to the additional 250k people on the dole added to the fact that the majority of workers have been hit with on average 25% pay cuts on top of the additional taxes.

Oh right. Can you provide even one link that shows 250k people added to the dole since 2010 or even one group of workers that have had a 25% pay cut, never mind a majority, since 2010. Or these figures just figments of your imagination?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Billys Boots on April 18, 2013, 08:55:58 AM
QuoteWithout any inaccurate disgraceful disgusting name calling (unlike you )

You started the name-calling.

FF got into power in 1996, that's when it started - I gave you the number of public servants in 1996; you seem to want to start in 2001 for some reason.  You said I was wrong about the 100,000 additional bodies in the public service; it was actually nearer 140,000 - the 100,000 figure appears to be the accepted figure, allowing for population increases.  Want to keep going??
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: seafoid on April 18, 2013, 09:54:40 AM
Quote from: Billys Boots on April 18, 2013, 08:55:58 AM
QuoteWithout any inaccurate disgraceful disgusting name calling (unlike you )

You started the name-calling.

FF got into power in 1996, that's when it started - I gave you the number of public servants in 1996; you seem to want to start in 2001 for some reason.  You said I was wrong about the 100,000 additional bodies in the public service; it was actually nearer 140,000 - the 100,000 figure appears to be the accepted figure, allowing for population increases.  Want to keep going??

the numbers are really awful

In 2001 the Exchequer net pay and pensions bill was €10.2bn; it was €16.2bn in 2006; €18.7 in 2008 and €17.1bn in 2011 - - an increase of 5.6% since 2006 and 67.6% since 2001.

The Department of Finance said in its Stability Programme Update April 2012:

"While taxation receipts in 2012 are projected to be just above 2004 levels, the gross voted expenditure of Government Departments and Offices in 2012, at an estimated €56bn, is projected to be 37% above the level it was in 2004, despite the very significant adjustments to both revenues and expenditure since mid-2008. While the gap between the State's revenues and expenditure is clearly on a downward trajectory, it remains at an elevated level and it will need to continue to be addressed by economic and fiscal policy over the coming years."

SIPTU etc need to wake up . It's 2013 now and the cupboard is bare.
If they don't chip in the most vulnerable people in Ireland will be shafted again. And there isn't much more they can take. It's not like the public sector is  uniquely gifted or even world class productivity wise either.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Rossfan on April 18, 2013, 07:15:52 PM
Quote from: Billys Boots on April 18, 2013, 08:55:58 AM
QuoteWithout any inaccurate disgraceful disgusting name calling (unlike you )

You started the name-calling. - NO I DID NOT

FF got into power in 1996, that's when it started - I gave you the number of public servants in 1996;PLEASE LET ME KNOW WHERE YOU GOT THAT FIG FROM SO I CAN LOOK IT UP TO VERIFY
you seem to want to start in 2001 for some reason.  THE FIGS I GAVE FROM 2001 TO 2009 ARE FROM THE MC CARTHY REPORT OF 2009 - FROM DEPT OF FINANCE WEBSITE
You said I was wrong about the 100,000 additional bodies in the public service; it was actually nearer 140,000 AH NOW KEEP A LID ON YOUR IMAGINATION  :D - the 100,000 figure appears to be the accepted figure, allowing for population increases.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Hardy on April 19, 2013, 01:09:00 AM
Quote from: highorlow on April 17, 2013, 09:37:16 AM
Can't believe the fools rejected this.

They will all get an across the board levy and cut now with the well off Civil Servants benefiting. I was talking to a girl last summer who emigrated to Oz 5 years ago, not because she had to but because she was sick and tired of the sense of entitlement people have in this country and needed out. Her point is well and truly reinforced by this vote result.

Indeed.

Quote
This will probably benefit the country in the longer term by breaking up the union cartel. Jack O'Connor seems to think that we can go to our lenders and spoof them that we can find 5 billion under a mattress and shur we are already half way there with the promissory note. He is some twit and a highly paid professional spoofer but his time is now running out also.


Quite right.
But ...

Quote
Along with the cut they should make all the ones over 55 at a certain grade compulsory redundant.

WTF??  Substitute "under 35s" or "black people" or "gay people" for "all the ones over 55" and present that sentence again.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: seafoid on April 19, 2013, 04:56:01 PM
NAMA goes after the Late Late show guest list stalwarts

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/sectors/commercial-property/nama-moves-against-developer-harry-crosbie-1.1365795
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: highorlow on April 21, 2013, 03:46:44 PM
QuoteWTF??  Substitute "under 35s" or "black people" or "gay people" for "all the ones over 55" and present that sentence again.

What the phuck has that got to do with anything?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Hardy on April 21, 2013, 06:28:05 PM
Quote from: highorlow on April 21, 2013, 03:46:44 PM
QuoteWTF??  Substitute "under 35s" or "black people" or "gay people" for "all the ones over 55" and present that sentence again.

What the phuck has that got to do with anything?

You really don't get it?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: highorlow on April 23, 2013, 11:54:34 AM
The Front Line Alliance, their own figures on certain incomes:

Psychiatric Nurse
€48,860

Staff Nurse
€49,501

Garda
€54,954

Garda Sergeant
€62,123

Garda Inspector
€68,746

Fire Fighter
€60,575

Executive Officer
€45,616

Higher Executive Officer
€55,415


When are they going to get real.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Rossfan on April 23, 2013, 05:16:47 PM
Are those figures top, bottom, middle of the scale for those ranks?
Most public service ranks get graduated payscale depending on length of service.
Or are you just building up to another ill informed ignorant rant? ;D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: highorlow on April 23, 2013, 11:30:44 PM
QuoteAre those figures top, bottom, middle of the scale for those ranks?
Most public service ranks get graduated payscale depending on length of service.
Or are you just building up to another ill informed ignorant rant?

Check it out for yourself you clown. Straight from their own websites.

http://www.frontlinealliance.ie/Alliance_0_290.aspx?id=624

http://www.impact.ie/Your-Sector/Public-Sector/Civil-Service/Civil-service-salary-scales/Current-salary-scales--2010-/General-service-grades--Full-PRSI-.htm

p.s. obviously these don't include all the other add on's that they get such as un-vouched expenses, allowances etc etc - which conveniently enough when is proposed to be cut becomes part of core pay but when figures are published don't form part of the full core pay. its a goddam disgrace that the PS are about to hold the country to ransom when everyone else outside the PS system had suffered now for almost a decade.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: armaghniac on April 23, 2013, 11:37:12 PM
Quoteobviously these don't include all the other add on's that they get such as un-vouched expenses,

Un vouched expenses? Are we talking about politicians here?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: highorlow on April 23, 2013, 11:39:53 PM
QuoteUn vouched expenses? Are we talking about politicians here?

whatever you want to call them. there are so many allowances I've lost track. the guards and the army are particular good beneficiaries.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Rossfan on April 24, 2013, 10:55:06 AM
Quote from: highorlow on April 23, 2013, 11:30:44 PM
the PS are about to hold the country to ransom when everyone else outside the PS system had suffered now for almost a decade.
Obviously you never heard of the 2009 "Pension" levy or the 2010 pay cuts.
The Private Sector ( not all parts) pay cuts/job losses started late 2008
A lot of the Private Sector have had NO CUTS ( e.g Senior Executives, people working for multi nationals.
As for holding to ransom FFS - get a life and stop the OTT drama queen stuff.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Hound on April 24, 2013, 11:10:42 AM
Quote from: Rossfan on April 24, 2013, 10:55:06 AM
Quote from: highorlow on April 23, 2013, 11:30:44 PM
the PS are about to hold the country to ransom when everyone else outside the PS system had suffered now for almost a decade.
Obviously you never heard of the 2009 "Pension" levy or the 2010 pay cuts.
The Private Sector ( not all parts) pay cuts/job losses started late 2008
A lot of the Private Sector have had NO CUTS ( e.g Senior Executives, people working for multi nationals.As for holding to ransom FFS - get a life and stop the OTT drama queen stuff.
Ah yes those blasted senior executives! The vast majority of senior executives in this country have taken a salary cut, but they're irrelevant to this argument as they are few in number and the cut may not have bothered them too much.

As for workers in multi-nationals having NO CUTS, that's just laughable. There have been thousands of workers in the MNC sector who have had cuts or worse still lost their job. If some are lucky enough that their employer is going great, they'll be doing fine, but its high risk in the MNC sector as your employer could literally up sticks and leave or rationalise at any time. It depends on how well your employer is doing. The public sector's employer is doing absolute shíte and therefore must enforce wage reductions.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Dinny Breen on April 24, 2013, 11:13:49 AM
QuoteA lot of the Private Sector have had NO CUTS  e.g Senior Executives, people working for multi nationals.

A lot? Really?

I work in a multinational, I have been asked to take a pay cut in the last 5 years and I haven't had a pay rise in those 5 years either. This company employs close to 5K people in Ireland, that's 5K people in one multinational asked to take pay cuts and not getting no pay rises. Not to mention the number of redundancies, allowances been cut, no over time payments and a reduction in on-call rates.

Prior to that I worked in the Public Service for two years and in those two years due to bench marking and incremental pay my salary increased by close to 16%. 

Both sectors are feeling the pain but to be the honest as far as I can see most people in the Private Sector just get on with it and don't have Unions to whinge and moan on our behalf.

I have sympathy for a lot of the front-line workers, medical workers in particular but as for your clerical staff i.e your Administrative Officers, Principal Officers etc they can f**k right off...
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Rossfan on April 24, 2013, 11:57:51 AM
My brother works for a well known Multi National and he's had NO PAY CUTS and has in fact got 2 pay rises since the downturn started in 2008. They were asked to keep quiet about it though .
Everybody has the right to join a Trade Union but many private companies ( mainly US ones plus of course Ryanair) won't talk to them or allow them to represent their staffs.
I pay Union dues so the Union will represent and fight for my interests ( same as hiring a Solicitor to represent me in any legal business) and I expec them to do so.
As for Dinny's Clerical and Administrative people who can go and **** off - they have mortgages, children etc and they also support their local shops, butchers, bakers, candlestick makers etc.
Not much worker solidarity there I see. Was it for this James Connolly died ?
Other than put a smile on the faces of oul anti public sector bigots ( Hobbs e.g ) - what good will these cuts do anyone in Ireland?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Dinny Breen on April 24, 2013, 12:23:39 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on April 24, 2013, 11:57:51 AM
My brother works for a well known Multi National and he's had NO PAY CUTS and has in fact got 2 pay rises since the downturn started in 2008. They were asked to keep quiet about it though .
Everybody has the right to join a Trade Union but many private companies ( mainly US ones plus of course Ryanair) won't talk to them or allow them to represent their staffs.
I pay Union dues so the Union will represent and fight for my interests ( same as hiring a Solicitor to represent me in any legal business) and I expec them to do so.
As for Dinny's Clerical and Administrative people who can go and **** off - they have mortgages, children etc and they also support their local shops, butchers, bakers, candlestick makers etc.
Not much worker solidarity there I see. Was it for this James Connolly died ?
Other than put a smile on the faces of oul anti public sector bigots ( Hobbs e.g ) - what good will these cuts do anyone in Ireland?

So you use one person in one multinational to deem that implies a LOT of Private Sector Workers.

I used i.e. so was explicit when I mentioned AOs (Local Authorities) and POs (Civil Service), their salaries range from 50K to 100K. This are administrative clerical roles, they are not performance related and are a job for life with an excellent pension. I have worked 4 year in the Public Service, the amount of dead wood in highly paid positions is criminal.

I am not a socialist.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on April 24, 2013, 12:28:25 PM
The ironic thing about the austerity fetishists is that anyone who has been following the Reinhart-Rogoff fiasco will know now that the whole basic premise has been disproven and that the public deficit doesn't inhibit growth.

Anway in today's news Richie and the rest of the BOI execs go merrily on their way with our governments blessing - great little countrry
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Rossfan on April 24, 2013, 02:17:04 PM
Quote from: Hound on April 24, 2013, 11:10:42 AM
Ah yes those blasted senior executives!.
It depends on how well your employer is doing. The public sector's employer is doing absolute shíte and therefore must enforce wage reductions.

Obviously this doesn't apply to Bank of Ireland  >:( >:( >:(

(highlights are by me)
A vote on the remuneration package for Bank of Ireland chief Richie Boucher will take place this evening at the bank's AGM.

Mr Boucher was paid more than €840,000, despite the bank suffering losses of more than €2bn.
In the Dáil earlier the Taoiseach said he expects bank chiefs to take a significant cut when they respond to government calls on them to reduce their cost base by between 6% and 10%.

However Finance Minister Michael Noonan is to abstain from voting on Mr. Boucher's pay package at today's Annual General Meeting
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: whiskeysteve on April 24, 2013, 02:22:08 PM
we can all cherry pick rossfan

(http://namawinelake.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/utterdisgrace1.jpg)

TV3 presenters get 40-50k per year
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: highorlow on April 24, 2013, 02:27:02 PM
QuoteObviously you never heard of the 2009 "Pension" levy or the 2010 pay cuts.
The Private Sector ( not all parts) pay cuts/job losses started late 2008
A lot of the Private Sector have had NO CUTS ( e.g Senior Executives, people working for multi nationals.
As for holding to ransom FFS - get a life and stop the OTT drama queen stuff.

This pension levy is always pushed out as an actual cut when it isn't. It's a levy to pay for the fat PS pensions so when a teacher, guard, civil servant or nurse happily retires around 55 with a full service pension they can afford to go into the farming, football management, coaching, journalism, tv, politics or golf full time when they retire rather than the part time operations that most of them carry on with while they are in the PS (so much spare time on their hands).

Your right with a PS gearing up to go on strike unless they get their way, this couldn't be called holding the country to ransom, it's just their unions way of doing things which they would regard as bargaining.

The DOF should increase the across the board cut to those above 65k to 15% and reduce the cut to 4% for those below 65k.

They should further implement a wealth tax on anyone over €130k, public or private sector.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Rossfan on April 24, 2013, 02:37:23 PM
If I got €100 last week and €90 this week that's a pay cut as I have less money to give Tesco LIDL at the checkout.
The so called pension levy was simply a device to avoid using the word pay cut dreamed up by a Union Executive.
It is simply a saving to the exchequer and is not used for paying pensions to anyone , fat or thin.
Ask the Dept of Finance if you wish.
Civil Servants can't retire till at least 60 - 65 or 66 for entrants after 1995.
Only Gardai/Soldiers and full time firemen can retire earlier.
As for your other oul cliched stereotyping comments... you're just another oul anti public service bigot.
Dinny -for your info

"Grade 7 Administrative Officer, Senior Executive Librarian
47,013 - 48,187 - 49,559 - 50,935 - 52,313 - 53,541 - 54,800 - 56,020 - 57,235 - 59,3221 - 61,4182"
The last 2 amounts are reached after  11 and 14 years service at that rank.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Rossfan on April 24, 2013, 02:39:01 PM
Quote from: Declan on April 24, 2013, 12:28:25 PM
The ironic thing about the austerity fetishists is that anyone who has been following the Reinhart-Rogoff fiasco will know now that the whole basic premise has been disproven and that the public deficit doesn't inhibit growth.

The whole Austerity thingy is the ECB/Bundesbank's way of teaching the untermensch their place i.e bail us out and then cut everything to pay for it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Dinny Breen on April 24, 2013, 02:49:33 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on April 24, 2013, 02:37:23 PM
If I got €100 last week and €90 this week that's a pay cut as I have less money to give Tesco LIDL at the checkout.
The so called pension levy was simply a device to avoid using the word pay cut dreamed up by a Union Executive.
It is simply a saving to the exchequer and is not used for paying pensions to anyone , fat or thin.
Ask the Dept of Finance if you wish.
Civil Servants can't retire till at least 60 - 65 or 66 for entrants after 1995.
Only Gardai/Soldiers and full time firemen can retire earlier.
As for your other oul cliched stereotyping comments... you're just another oul anti public service bigot.
Dinny -for your info

"Grade 7 Administrative Officer, Senior Executive Librarian
47,013 - 48,187 - 49,559 - 50,935 - 52,313 - 53,541 - 54,800 - 56,020 - 57,235 - 59,3221 - 61,4182"
The last 2 amounts are reached after  11 and 14 years service at that rank.

Sorry I was 3K euro off on the "entry scale point" which you only start on if your currently salary is less, somehow I doubt many Senior Staff Officers, the grade below, are coming in on €47k.



Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: highorlow on April 24, 2013, 02:54:38 PM
QuoteAs for your other oul cliched stereotyping comments... you're just another oul anti public service bigot.

Why do you have to keep personalizing your arguments? Stick to the points detailed and try and come to some solutions rather than constantly making a fool of yourself. Some FACTS are listed below in relation to pensions. If I was given those same guarantees and conditions on retirement by my employer in the morning in return for a levy not only would I accept but I would leave work early on the day to celebrate (if i was allowed the time). 

"Those who joined the public service before 1995 have to make a contribution to their basic pension of between zero and 3.5pc. Those who joined after 1995 make a 5pc contribution, but they were given a special 5pc pay rise to take account of this, meaning that they suffered no net loss.
The Government is bringing in a new pensions levy for all public sector workers. It will apply on a graded basis with public sector workers on higher salaries contributing more and those on lower incomes contributing less. It will account for the bulk of the €1.4bn in savings from this year's payroll. Although public sector workers will continue to earn the same, their take home pay will drop.

All public servants can look forward to a pension of 50pc of final income, as well as a tax-free lump sum of 150pc of their salary when they retire.

Those who joined before April 1, 2004 can retire at the age of 60 on a full pension, but those who joined after that date can only retire at 65. There are exceptions for gardai, firefighters, and the Defence Forces.

All public sector pensions are guaranteed by the State whereas private sector pensions are not (as workers in Waterford Crystal have found out). Due to their "defined benefit" schemes, public sector workers are guaranteed 50pc of their final salary when they retire. Many private sector workers are on "defined contribution" schemes which don't provide a guaranteed level of retirement income."


In relation to my comments on the part time payed work that the teachers, guards, firefighters and army lads do I don't have to list names out when it comes to this GAABOARD site as all one has to do is either switch on the Sunday Game or ........
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Billys Boots on April 24, 2013, 03:06:19 PM
QuoteWhy do you have to keep personalizing your arguments?

Oh but he doesn't ... according to himself.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on April 24, 2013, 03:21:40 PM
QuoteI am not a socialist.

Had you pegged all wrong Dinny ;) ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: armaghniac on April 24, 2013, 03:28:03 PM
Quote"Those who joined the public service before 1995 have to make a contribution to their basic pension of between zero and 3.5pc. Those who joined after 1995 make a 5pc contribution, but they were given a special 5pc pay rise to take account of this, meaning that they suffered no net loss.

This is true and not especially remarkable.

QuoteA lot of the Private Sector have had NO CUTS  e.g Senior Executives, people working for multi nationals.

While there are always examples of particular situations, and situations differ greatly, private sector pay in aggregate is now slightly higher than in 2008 and increasing.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on April 24, 2013, 03:32:21 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on April 24, 2013, 02:37:23 PM
If I got €100 last week and €90 this week that's a pay cut as I have less money to give Tesco LIDL at the checkout.
The so called pension levy was simply a device to avoid using the word pay cut dreamed up by a Union Executive.
It is simply a saving to the exchequer and is not used for paying pensions to anyone , fat or thin.
Ask the Dept of Finance if you wish.
Civil Servants can't retire till at least 60 - 65 or 66 for entrants after 1995.
Only Gardai/Soldiers and full time firemen can retire earlier.
As for your other oul cliched stereotyping comments... you're just another oul anti public service bigot.
Dinny -for your info

"Grade 7 Administrative Officer, Senior Executive Librarian
47,013 - 48,187 - 49,559 - 50,935 - 52,313 - 53,541 - 54,800 - 56,020 - 57,235 - 59,3221 - 61,4182"
The last 2 amounts are reached after  11 and 14 years service at that rank.

http://www.payscale.com/research/UK/Job=Librarian/Salary (http://www.payscale.com/research/UK/Job=Librarian/Salary)

UK
Librarian 2013 Total Pay
(?)
£13,892 - £34,273
0 14K 19K 24K 28K 34K
MEDIAN: £24,331
10% 25% 50% 75% 90%

I don't know how much of the above goes towards their pension.



Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: highorlow on April 24, 2013, 03:36:06 PM
QuoteWhile there are always examples of particular situations, and situations differ greatly, private sector pay in aggregate is now slightly higher than in 2008 and increasing.

Where is this aggregate derived from - have you a link to the site?

In any case the private sector isn't borrowing from the IMF on a day to day basis to fund any of this.

Bottom line is and everyone bar some of the PubS workers themselves (how many were in support of CP II based on the overall vote?)  agree that to keep borrowing the way we are to feed the PubS pay bill in its current state can't continue. It's a real pity that Croke Park I didn't implement the reforms that were promised.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: armaghniac on April 24, 2013, 04:26:33 PM
QuoteWhere is this aggregate derived from - have you a link to the site?

EU stats on labour costs per hour  (http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/3-10042013-AP/EN/3-10042013-AP-EN.PDF)in euro, for whole economy (excluding agriculture and public administration)
Show these 0.8% higher (granted, not a huge amount) in 2012 than 2008.

also part of the picture of increasing private wages
http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/economy/2012/isanonfin_q42012.pdf
Gross disposable income of households (B.6g) increased from €84,196m in 2011 to €86,273m in 2012 – an increase of €2078m (+2.5%). Higher wages (D.1) (+€711m) and profits of the self employed (B.2g/B.3g) (+€1948m) were the main factors which contributed to this increase.


QuoteIt's a real pity that Croke Park I didn't implement the reforms that were promised.

I fully agree on this one. There has been no effort recently to identify where there were reforms and where there were not. Instead of taking a big stick to the areas slow to reform, they simply propose to cut everyone, regardless of the worth of their work or the extent that have worked the previous agreement.


Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Rossfan on April 24, 2013, 04:29:29 PM
Quote from: highorlow on April 24, 2013, 02:54:38 PM
All public servants can look forward to a pension of 50pc of final income, as well as a tax-free lump sum of 150pc of their salary when they retire.


Only if you have "full service" - usually 40 years.
Most of the non Executive/Professional staff  ( operatives/drivers/ maintenance etc - the bucks who do the work  :-\) wouldn't have next or near that as we wouldn't be "lifers".
Some of us lads don't get lump sums either depending on the scheme you joined at starting - usually you'd pick the cheapest one and .....
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Rossfan on April 24, 2013, 04:32:07 PM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on April 24, 2013, 02:22:08 PM
we can all cherry pick rossfan

(http://namawinelake.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/utterdisgrace1.jpg)

TV3 presenters get 40-50k per year
RTE is a semi state and is not part of the present negotiations/discussion.
Any organisation giving that sort of money to Duffy or Tubridy needs to be abolished quick.
" Ahhh but they'll go elsewhere if we don't pay them that much "
The quicker the effin better.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: macdanger2 on April 24, 2013, 05:00:18 PM
I can understand some public sector workers being p*ssed off at having to take more cuts but for me the problem is the fact that all public sector workers are treated the same regardless of what they actually do in work.

It's pretty much impossible to sack someone in the public sector regardless of how useless they are - we all know of teachers / guards / govt office work workers / council workers who haven't done a days work in years and yet get their annual increments and guaranteed pension regardless. If you're one of the people who actually do a good job then you'd be feeling fairly p*ssed off having to take pay cuts because some people can't do an honest days work for an honest days pay - and these clowns are always the ones with the huge sense of entitlement.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Rossfan on April 24, 2013, 05:11:01 PM
Quote from: Billys Boots on April 24, 2013, 03:06:19 PM
QuoteWhy do you have to keep personalizing your arguments?

Oh but he doesn't ... according to himself.
Who asked you   :P ya *****  :-*
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on April 25, 2013, 07:15:28 PM
http://economic-incentives.blogspot.ie/2013/04/10-year-yield-at-349.html (http://economic-incentives.blogspot.ie/2013/04/10-year-yield-at-349.html)

Irish 10 year yields at 3.49%.

I am beginning to think the link between market confidence and yields is not as strong as we are led to believe.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Dinny Breen on April 28, 2013, 11:03:30 AM
I see Iceland has returned to Government the crowd that were held responsible for their economic collapse in 2008.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Denn Forever on April 28, 2013, 11:19:45 AM
Quote from: Dinny Breen on April 28, 2013, 11:03:30 AM
I see Iceland has returned to Government the crowd that were held responsible for their economic collapse in 2008.

As we are going to do at the next election. :-[
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on April 29, 2013, 05:38:01 PM
New Research: Economic Austerity in US and Europe 'Is Killing People'
HIV/AIDS, malaria outbreaks, shortages of essential medicines, lost healthcare access, and an epidemic of drug abuse, depression and suicide

Despite assurances by financial elites that austerity economics is a prescription to improve the lives of the masses, research contained in a newly published book shows that the push for steep cuts in wages, social programs, and public health programs is literally killing people throughout Europe and the US.

The book—http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0465063985?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creativeASIN=0465063985&linkCode=xm2&tag=commondreams-20, written by David Stuckler, an Oxford University political economist, and Sanjay Basu, an epidemiologist at Stanford University—uses historical case studies from around the globe and throughout history to show "how government policy becomes a matter of life and death" during deep or prolonged financial crises.

Discovering that the cure to the financial crisis of 2008 was in some ways worse than the affliction, Stucklet and Basu argue that countries "turned their recessions into veritable epidemics" by championing austerity measures that ultimately "ruined or extinguished" thousands of lives in series of "misguided" attempts to balance budgets, appease financial markets, and bow to the economic elite.

"The harms we have found include HIV and malaria outbreaks, shortages of essential medicines, lost healthcare access, and an avoidable epidemic of alcohol abuse, depression and suicide," said Dr. Stuckler in a statement. "Austerity is having a devastating effect."

As Reuters reports:

the researchers say more than 10,000 suicides and up to a million cases of depression have been diagnosed during what they call the "Great Recession" and its accompanying austerity across Europe and North America.

In Greece, moves like cutting HIV prevention budgets have coincided with rates of the AIDS-causing virus rising by more than 200 percent since 2011 - driven in part by increasing drug abuse in the context of a 50 percent youth unemployment rate.

Greece also experienced its first malaria outbreak in decades following budget cuts to mosquito-spraying programs.

And more than five million Americans have lost access to healthcare during the latest recession, they argue, while in Britain, some 10,000 families have been pushed into homelessness by the government's austerity budget.
As the authors explain in the introduction to their book, it is not only the dire impacts of the policies they found troubling, but the heartlessness of the policy-makers who so vigorously endorse them. They write:

We were shocked and concerned at the illogic of the austerity advocates, and the hard data on its human and economic costs. We realized the impact of the Great Recession went far beyond people losing their homes and jobs. It was a full-scale assault on people's health. At the heart of the argument was the question of what it means to be a society, and what the appropriate role of government is in protecting people.
Compounding the problem, the authors conclude, is the fact that alternative paths did exist, and continue to exist, but that nations remain unwilling or unable to break free from the purveyors of austerity.

Citing examples from the historical and current record, Stuckler and Basu show that many countries have weathered financial and other crises by investing in public health and innovative social programs.

"Ultimately what we show is that worsening health is not an inevitable consequence of economic recessions. It's a political choice," said Professor Basu.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: ludermor on May 03, 2013, 01:23:24 PM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/10032988/Greeks-only-soup-kitchen-sparks-protests-in-Athens.html
Greeks only' soup kitchen sparks protests in Athens
Members of Greek extremist political party Golden Dawn try to open a 'Greeks only' soup kitchen in Athens, as anti-immigrant feeling bubbles against a backdrop of increasing pover

12:19PM BST 02 May 2013
An attempt by the extremist far-right Golden Dawn party to hand out food to Greeks only in defiance of a municipal ban degenerated into chaos on Thursday with the city's mayor saying a party lawmaker tried to punch him and draw a gun.
The punch missed its target, landing instead on a 12-year-old girl, Greek media said.
Security guards restrained the legislator, Giorgos Germenis.
The party, whose members have been repeatedly linked with violent attacks on Greece's large immigrant population, had said it would give food to needy Greeks in Syntagma Square, opposite Parliament, ahead of Sunday's Orthodox Easter.
Mayor Giorgos Kaminis had banned such events in the city's central square and vowed not to allow the "soup kitchen of hate" to take place.
Related Articles
Golden Dawn's 'Greeks only' soup kitchen ends in chaos 02 May 2013
Cost of austerity measures is poor health 29 Apr 2013
Greece's great fire sale 20 Apr 2013
Greek farm staff 'shoot unpaid strawberry pickers' 18 Apr 2013
Greek unemployment hits a fresh record 11 Apr 2013
Aristotle Onassis' Greek island 'sold for £100 million' 10 Apr 2013
Party members, with the Golden Dawn logo emblazoned across the back of their black T-shirts, arrived at the square more than two hours earlier than announced and began handing out bags of food after checking recipients' identity cards.
"Golden Dawn will stand beside Greeks, it will stand by the suffering Greeks whatever decisions the immigrant loving Mr. Kaminis takes. Greeks, keep your heads high, Happy Holidays! We will take our country back," said Christos Pappas, Head of the Golden Dawn parliamentary group.
Scuffles broke out between party members and riot police as authorities prevented the party's truck from unloading its cargo of meat and other goods.
Police used pepper spray to repel party members holding Greek flags on thick wooden sticks, and the truck was eventually forced to move on.
The party resumed its distribution from party offices in an inner Athens neighbourhood.
Mr Kaminis later visited a municipal food distribution centre in the same area when he was confronted by Mr Germenis.
Greek media said the girl who was hit by the punch was not badly hurt, and suffered a bruised forehead.
Golden Dawn, a once-marginal group fond of Nazi literature and symbols but which rejects the neo-Nazi label, is now Greece's third most popular party and won 18 of Parliament's 300 seats in elections last year.
With the country mired in the sixth year of a deep and poverty levels spiralling, it has staged Greeks-only food distributions elsewhere in the past that have proved popular.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Dinny Breen on May 03, 2013, 03:22:41 PM
Quote from: ludermor on May 03, 2013, 01:23:24 PM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/10032988/Greeks-only-soup-kitchen-sparks-protests-in-Athens.html
Greeks only' soup kitchen sparks protests in Athens
Members of Greek extremist political party Golden Dawn try to open a 'Greeks only' soup kitchen in Athens, as anti-immigrant feeling bubbles against a backdrop of increasing pover

12:19PM BST 02 May 2013
An attempt by the extremist far-right Golden Dawn party to hand out food to Greeks only in defiance of a municipal ban degenerated into chaos on Thursday with the city's mayor saying a party lawmaker tried to punch him and draw a gun.
The punch missed its target, landing instead on a 12-year-old girl, Greek media said.
Security guards restrained the legislator, Giorgos Germenis.
The party, whose members have been repeatedly linked with violent attacks on Greece's large immigrant population, had said it would give food to needy Greeks in Syntagma Square, opposite Parliament, ahead of Sunday's Orthodox Easter.
Mayor Giorgos Kaminis had banned such events in the city's central square and vowed not to allow the "soup kitchen of hate" to take place.
Related Articles
Golden Dawn's 'Greeks only' soup kitchen ends in chaos 02 May 2013
Cost of austerity measures is poor health 29 Apr 2013
Greece's great fire sale 20 Apr 2013
Greek farm staff 'shoot unpaid strawberry pickers' 18 Apr 2013
Greek unemployment hits a fresh record 11 Apr 2013
Aristotle Onassis' Greek island 'sold for £100 million' 10 Apr 2013
Party members, with the Golden Dawn logo emblazoned across the back of their black T-shirts, arrived at the square more than two hours earlier than announced and began handing out bags of food after checking recipients' identity cards.
"Golden Dawn will stand beside Greeks, it will stand by the suffering Greeks whatever decisions the immigrant loving Mr. Kaminis takes. Greeks, keep your heads high, Happy Holidays! We will take our country back," said Christos Pappas, Head of the Golden Dawn parliamentary group.
Scuffles broke out between party members and riot police as authorities prevented the party's truck from unloading its cargo of meat and other goods.
Police used pepper spray to repel party members holding Greek flags on thick wooden sticks, and the truck was eventually forced to move on.
The party resumed its distribution from party offices in an inner Athens neighbourhood.
Mr Kaminis later visited a municipal food distribution centre in the same area when he was confronted by Mr Germenis.
Greek media said the girl who was hit by the punch was not badly hurt, and suffered a bruised forehead.
Golden Dawn, a once-marginal group fond of Nazi literature and symbols but which rejects the neo-Nazi label, is now Greece's third most popular party and won 18 of Parliament's 300 seats in elections last year.
With the country mired in the sixth year of a deep and poverty levels spiralling, it has staged Greeks-only food distributions elsewhere in the past that have proved popular.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Zvl9N9GdraQ (http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Zvl9N9GdraQ)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on May 10, 2013, 09:04:23 AM
http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2013/05/10/average-salary-at-nama-in-2012-was-e102579/ (http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2013/05/10/average-salary-at-nama-in-2012-was-e102579/)

Average salary at NAMA in 2012 was €102,579 - Great little country we have
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on May 13, 2013, 08:34:36 AM
This made me smile ;D

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BKGpE7nCEAID8f6.jpg:large)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on May 13, 2013, 10:33:38 AM
The inherent hypocrisy at the heart of Europe

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-13/europe-eases-corporate-tax-dodge-as-worker-burdens-rise.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-13/europe-eases-corporate-tax-dodge-as-worker-burdens-rise.html)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on May 13, 2013, 11:27:54 AM
Quote from: Declan on May 13, 2013, 08:34:36 AM
This made me smile ;D

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BKGpE7nCEAID8f6.jpg:large)

Class Declan.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: seafoid on May 13, 2013, 05:06:05 PM
Younger and older households in the crisis

http://www.esri.ie/UserFiles/publications/RN20130104.pdf
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on May 21, 2013, 03:33:38 PM
You gotta love Economists  >:( >:(

Roberto Perotti, a founder of the idea of  'expansionary fiscal austerity' now believes it "is probably an illusion."His conclusions:  "the notion of 'expansionary fiscal austerity' in the short run is probably an illusion: a trade-off does seem to exist between fiscal austerity and short-run growth" and so "the fiscal consolidations implemented by several European countries could well aggravate the recession"

http://content.ksg.harvard.edu/blog/jeff_frankels_weblog/2013/05/20/on-whose-research-is-the-case-for-austerity-mistakenly-based/ (http://content.ksg.harvard.edu/blog/jeff_frankels_weblog/2013/05/20/on-whose-research-is-the-case-for-austerity-mistakenly-based/)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on May 21, 2013, 06:29:44 PM
http://www.rte.ie/blogs/business/2013/05/17/bank-crisis-rule-book-entirely-rewritten/ (http://www.rte.ie/blogs/business/2013/05/17/bank-crisis-rule-book-entirely-rewritten/)

Bank crisis rule book entirely rewritten
Posted on May 17, 2013 by David Murphy

The rule book regarding what a euro zone country is permitted to do to fix its banks has been entirely rewritten

Critics have argued Europe has been making up the answers to the banking crisis as it went along in an amateurish fashion.

The evidence to back up that criticism is getting stronger by the day.

The rule book regarding what a country is permitted to do to fix its banks has been entirely rewritten. That raises deep questions about the €62 billion pumped into Irish banks and about future recapitalisations which are on the cards.


In the case of the Cypriot calamity, bank bondholders were wiped out and depositors with over €100,000 in two of the island's banks are now facing losses of between 60% and 100%.

Initially, EU officials said the draconian solution was a "once off" event to address the symptoms of Nicosia's casino banking system which was allegedly bulging with hot Russian money.

The head of the euro zone's finance ministers group, the gaff-prone Jeroen Dijsselbloem, subsequently said Cyprus was a "template" for future banking solutions.

Under Ireland's presidency of the EU, Finance Minister Michael Noonan is trying to agree a formal process for dealing with failing banks by next month.

ECB board member Joerg Asmussen said: "We want to establish a clear pecking order. First shareholders have to be burned, then all junior bank bondholders, then unsecured senior bank bondholders and uninsured depositors at the very end."

Not all countries are in agreement, however, and the debate regarding hitting depositors would mean people with savings over €100,000 could be in the line of fire. For over borrowed countries with weak banks (ie: Ireland) this is particularly worrying because there is nothing to stop a flight of large depositors.

While Ireland was told in 2011 that it could not wipe out senior bondholders by the ECB, now Mr Asmussen says this is acceptable. This marks an enormous policy change.
In Ireland most of the bank recapitalisation has already happened. The Central Bank says in the medium term new accountancy rules may mean banks would need more capital.

Others argue that a requirement for new funds could happen sooner as a result of the continuing mortgage crisis. Another stress test, which is likely later this year, will give a reliable answer to that question.

But where will the money come from? Ireland has bailed out bondholders, which the ECB now says it is acceptable to burn. When the blanket bank guarantee was introduced in 2008 there were unsecured bonds of €85 billion in the financial system now there is less than €1 billion of senior unsecured and unguaranteed debt. That means there are no more bondholders upon which losses can be imposed.

Deposits of large corporations have left the system and don't show any sign of returning. There is €155 billion of deposits in the banks. Of that, €54 billion are savers with sums in excess of €100,000. That means those depositors could feel under threat if amounts over €100,000 can be burned in the euro zone.

Last June the European Council raised the possibility of the European Stability Mechanism being used to recapitalise banks. Germany and some other countries have been trying to back out of this promise.

But now that Europe is making up policies to fix banking problems as it goes along, Ireland has an opportunity to ensure it can use the ESM to recapitalise the banks. The horrible alternative is to tap the taxpayer once again or hit depositors over €100,000.

Not to worry though. Europe will have a plan.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: armaghniac on May 21, 2013, 06:32:23 PM
QuoteNot to worry though. Europe will have a plan.

The Grimley plan, carry on regardless of the success of the plan.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on June 12, 2013, 09:59:29 AM
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/aib-will-not-repay-35bn-cash-it-owes-to-the-state-29337833.html (http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/aib-will-not-repay-35bn-cash-it-owes-to-the-state-29337833.html)

"AIB will not be able to pay €3.5bn it owes us".

Apparently the bank, which is 99% State owned, is likely to give us equity instead. The dinosaur that is the Department for Social Protection (Welfare) costs only about 6 times that and at least most of that money comes back into the economy.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Rossfan on June 12, 2013, 12:22:41 PM
Nobody calling in cutbacks in Bank support I notice.  ::)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on June 13, 2013, 09:15:41 AM
Saw this on twitter and thought it was good

True genius. G8 Summit host Lough Erne is bankrupt golf course funded by the credit maniacs at HBoS. On sale for £10m, 1/5 of cost of summit
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on June 13, 2013, 12:50:43 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on June 12, 2013, 12:22:41 PM
Nobody calling in cutbacks in Bank support I notice.  ::)

What will happen Rossfan if the Government now stop supporting our banks?

I am not against the idea, but I am wondering if you have considered what happens next.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Rossfan on June 13, 2013, 02:33:04 PM
Quote from: muppet on June 13, 2013, 12:50:43 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on June 12, 2013, 12:22:41 PM
Nobody calling in cutbacks in Bank support I notice.  ::)

What will happen Rossfan if the Government now stop supporting our banks?

I am not against the idea, but I am wondering if you have considered what happens next.

All I'm considering these days is who ros will get in the 2nd Round qualifier  :-\
As for the Banks - It can't go on being a blank cheque on the banks' terms forever which seems to be the current scenario.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on June 13, 2013, 02:41:23 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on June 13, 2013, 02:33:04 PM
Quote from: muppet on June 13, 2013, 12:50:43 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on June 12, 2013, 12:22:41 PM
Nobody calling in cutbacks in Bank support I notice.  ::)

What will happen Rossfan if the Government now stop supporting our banks?

I am not against the idea, but I am wondering if you have considered what happens next.

All I'm considering these days is who ros will get in the 2nd Round qualifier  :-\
As for the Banks - It can't go on being a blank cheque on the banks' terms forever which seems to be the current scenario.

The latest problem is the mortgage arrears and the failure to deal with it in any way.

If the banks write off a large amount of these arrears, as seems likely, their will have serious funding problems again. The last time this happened our idiotic Bank Guarantee meant we coughed up straight away, without leaving ourselves any decent bargaining position with the ECB, bondholders etc., and we will be paying for decades. This time it there is lots of waffle and vague promises from Europe, but nothing concrete and it seems possible that it will be the Irish Taxpayer again coughing up possibly in the form of another Troika deal in the next 2/3 years.

No one wants that scenario, but where is the credible alternative?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: seafoid on June 13, 2013, 03:14:58 PM
Quote from: muppet on June 13, 2013, 02:41:23 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on June 13, 2013, 02:33:04 PM
Quote from: muppet on June 13, 2013, 12:50:43 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on June 12, 2013, 12:22:41 PM
Nobody calling in cutbacks in Bank support I notice.  ::)

What will happen Rossfan if the Government now stop supporting our banks?

I am not against the idea, but I am wondering if you have considered what happens next.

All I'm considering these days is who ros will get in the 2nd Round qualifier  :-\
As for the Banks - It can't go on being a blank cheque on the banks' terms forever which seems to be the current scenario.

The latest problem is the mortgage arrears and the failure to deal with it in any way.

If the banks write off a large amount of these arrears, as seems likely, their will have serious funding problems again. The last time this happened our idiotic Bank Guarantee meant we coughed up straight away, without leaving ourselves any decent bargaining position with the ECB, bondholders etc., and we will be paying for decades. This time it there is lots of waffle and vague promises from Europe, but nothing concrete and it seems possible that it will be the Irish Taxpayer again coughing up possibly in the form of another Troika deal in the next 2/3 years.

No one wants that scenario, but where is the credible alternative?
Europe is slowly putting together the framework for a bank resolution scheme
Maybe the majority of arrears won't be dealt with until this is in place.
The most desperate could be sorted out this year but the rest might have to wait.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: give her dixie on June 24, 2013, 04:38:27 PM
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/inside-anglo-the-secret-recordings-29366837.html

TAPE RECORDINGS from inside doomed Anglo Irish Bank reveal for the first time how the bank's top executives lied to the Government about the true extent of losses at the institution.

The astonishing tapes show senior manager John Bowe, who had been involved in negotiations with the Central Bank, laughing and joking as he tells another senior manager, Peter Fitzgerald, how Anglo was luring the State into giving it billions of euro.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on June 24, 2013, 04:44:37 PM
some boyos alright -where did we get the figure €7 billion - Like Drummer said we pulled it out of our arses!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on June 24, 2013, 06:12:40 PM
Why is the tape coming out now?

It might have saved us if it came out before the Bank Guarantee.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: thejuice on June 24, 2013, 08:42:59 PM
I think we should start a civil war. Pro-Guarantee Vs Anti-Guarantee. But using blank rounds. Im sure we can find some left over movie explosives that we could plant around the place and with the help of the local news channels (foreign ones will be expelled  for their own safety along with a few RTE heads for good measure) we could script the whole thing to look like the country is descending into chaos.

Then get the wankers in Dáil to beg the EU to let us away with our debts otherwise we'll kill each other and with it the markets will kill the Euro. We'll get anyone invloved with anglo and all the other corrupt banker f**kers, put them on a boat to as far as f**k away. Then tell the Eurocrats that we killed them all.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on June 25, 2013, 08:02:18 AM
QuoteWhy is the tape coming out now?

It might have saved us if it came out before the Bank Guarantee.

Good question muppet.
Nothing to do with the close relationships between Anglo and FF no doubt
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: An Gaeilgoir on June 25, 2013, 09:11:22 AM
A mate of mine is in the fraud squad, he was telling me about these tapes 2 years, there are in total 2 years worth of recordings....a sort of insurance policy by Seanie to stop the blabber mouths hanging him out to day...... some of the conversations between some previous Govt. ministers, TD's and Anglo, according to him are unbelievable, not to mention conversations between bank officials and "people of dubious backgrounds" organising as he put it " Dublin Bunga Bunga Parties" for the high and mighty at the time......

Was talking to him yesterday, he tells me that Williams got the tapes almost a year ago, it suits FG that they are coming out not as FF are on the comeback and it suits the Guards to keep Shatter busy.................

Timing is everything.............
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on June 25, 2013, 09:27:34 AM
Quote from: An Gaeilgoir on June 25, 2013, 09:11:22 AM
A mate of mine is in the fraud squad, he was telling me about these tapes 2 years, there are in total 2 years worth of recordings....a sort of insurance policy by Seanie to stop the blabber mouths hanging him out to day...... some of the conversations between some previous Govt. ministers, TD's and Anglo, according to him are unbelievable, not to mention conversations between bank officials and "people of dubious backgrounds" organising as he put it " Dublin Bunga Bunga Parties" for the high and mighty at the time......

Was talking to him yesterday, he tells me that Williams got the tapes almost a year ago, it suits FG that they are coming out not as FF are on the comeback and it suits the Guards to keep Shatter busy.................

Timing is everything.............

Coming into the summer recess 2 years before a General Election? That doesn't add up either.

FG would have kept them for a couple of weeks before the election. Having said that we haven't seen anything involving FF yet.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: LeoMc on June 25, 2013, 09:36:10 AM
Quote from: muppet on June 25, 2013, 09:27:34 AM
Quote from: An Gaeilgoir on June 25, 2013, 09:11:22 AM
A mate of mine is in the fraud squad, he was telling me about these tapes 2 years, there are in total 2 years worth of recordings....a sort of insurance policy by Seanie to stop the blabber mouths hanging him out to day...... some of the conversations between some previous Govt. ministers, TD's and Anglo, according to him are unbelievable, not to mention conversations between bank officials and "people of dubious backgrounds" organising as he put it " Dublin Bunga Bunga Parties" for the high and mighty at the time......

Was talking to him yesterday, he tells me that Williams got the tapes almost a year ago, it suits FG that they are coming out not as FF are on the comeback and it suits the Guards to keep Shatter busy.................

Timing is everything.............

Coming into the summer recess 2 years before a General Election? That doesn't add up either.

FG would have kept them for a couple of weeks before the election. Having said that we haven't seen anything involving FF yet.
The start of a slow drip drip, but for whose benefit?
This only shows that FF were conned by their "mates".
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: supersarsfields on June 25, 2013, 09:46:43 AM
My guess is that whoever leaked the tapes didn't have possession of them before now, which is why they're coming out now rather a few years ago. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Hereiam on June 25, 2013, 10:13:32 AM
Dont think it really matters because the Irish Population will just sit back and do nothing. Look at Brazil and Greece, if you (the south) had any balls you would be out on the streets showing your disgust for what has happened.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: deiseach on June 25, 2013, 10:44:35 AM
Quote from: Hereiam on June 25, 2013, 10:13:32 AM
Dont think it really matters because the Irish Population will just sit back and do nothing. Look at Brazil and Greece, if you (the south) had any balls you would be out on the streets showing your disgust for what has happened.

I'm looking at Brazil and Greece. What lesson are we meant to learn here?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on June 25, 2013, 10:53:42 AM
Lest we forget the events and timelines

http://awakenlongford.wordpress.com/2013/06/25/bank-guarantee-countdown-to-disaster/ (http://awakenlongford.wordpress.com/2013/06/25/bank-guarantee-countdown-to-disaster/)

Also as Elaine Byrne has pointed out we don't do prosecutions and our commitment to the adherence of the law can be seen by the continued underfunding of the offices  needed to pursue this type of crime https://twitter.com/ElaineByrne (https://twitter.com/ElaineByrne)

In short we are a failed state and will continue to be so until there is a sea change in our mentality
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Hereiam on June 25, 2013, 11:01:42 AM
Quote from: deiseach on June 25, 2013, 10:44:35 AM
Quote from: Hereiam on June 25, 2013, 10:13:32 AM
Dont think it really matters because the Irish Population will just sit back and do nothing. Look at Brazil and Greece, if you (the south) had any balls you would be out on the streets showing your disgust for what has happened.

I'm looking at Brazil and Greece. What lesson are we meant to learn here?
Get up of your fat lazy asses and show the slimeballs that you will not be walked over.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Rossfan on June 25, 2013, 11:11:11 AM
Quote from: Hereiam on June 25, 2013, 11:01:42 AM
Quote from: deiseach on June 25, 2013, 10:44:35 AM
Quote from: Hereiam on June 25, 2013, 10:13:32 AM
Dont think it really matters because the Irish Population will just sit back and do nothing. Look at Brazil and Greece, if you (the south) had any balls you would be out on the streets showing your disgust for what has happened.

I'm looking at Brazil and Greece. What lesson are we meant to learn here?
Get up of your fat lazy asses and show the slimeballs that you will not be walked over.

It's too late as the slimeballs have already walked us into it in 2008  >:(
And a fat lot of good protesting/striking/causing mayhem did the Greeks as they and their country is still in the sh1t.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: deiseach on June 25, 2013, 11:21:32 AM
Quote from: Hereiam on June 25, 2013, 11:01:42 AM
Quote from: deiseach on June 25, 2013, 10:44:35 AM
Quote from: Hereiam on June 25, 2013, 10:13:32 AM
Dont think it really matters because the Irish Population will just sit back and do nothing. Look at Brazil and Greece, if you (the south) had any balls you would be out on the streets showing your disgust for what has happened.

I'm looking at Brazil and Greece. What lesson are we meant to learn here?
Get up of your fat lazy asses and show the slimeballs that you will not be walked over.

I don't see how Brazil and Greece demonstrate how getting off our fat lazy asses will show the slimeballs we won't be walked over. Maybe I'm looking at the wrong news sources.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on June 25, 2013, 02:48:28 PM
I've come to the conclusion that the most effective form of action or civil disobedience that the ordinary people of Ireland can do is to refuse to continue to repay their mortgages. If enough people did that well then the consequences would have to be addressed within the next 6 months.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Rossfan on June 25, 2013, 02:58:06 PM
That's an idea alright but then the fcukin Banks will simply say " We need more taxpayers' money " and of course they'll get it because apparently we can't live without them.

These lads from the North roarin about " marching up and down the streets" remind me of an oul buck in a pub in a neighbouring town many years ago ( when I could be found more regularly in such places  8))
He was asleep at the counter and then woke up slobberin at the top of his voice " Time to shtop the boloxin in this fcukin Country. We should march on the Dáil "
The publican tould him to "calm down there Jimmy" so he promptly went back to sleep having done his bit for the Revolution  ;D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: trueblue1234 on June 25, 2013, 03:05:06 PM
And you'd remind me of one of those boys who would stand up for nothing for fear of making a scene.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Bord na Mona man on June 25, 2013, 03:08:39 PM
Quote from: Declan on June 25, 2013, 02:48:28 PM
I've come to the conclusion that the most effective form of action or civil disobedience that the ordinary people of Ireland can do is to refuse to continue to repay their mortgages. If enough people did that well then the consequences would have to be addressed within the next 6 months.
There are thousands of people doing that already.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Rossfan on June 25, 2013, 03:12:01 PM
TrueBlue,
Talkin sh1te while running down your neighbours ( whom ye want to Unite with - how do ye expect that to work I wonder ) will achieve........... the same as the Greeks have achieved -- SWEET FA --- unlike what they would have achieved if they started working, showing enterprise, paying taxes etc etc.
You know like the Germans, Dutch, Danes etc and we are now learning about after 30 years of Fianna Fáil pay for nothing, get everything free and sure build like fuk and give tax breaks to speculators and let Bankers do what they like.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: boojangles on June 25, 2013, 03:25:07 PM
Quote from: trueblue1234 on June 25, 2013, 03:05:06 PM
And you'd remind me of one of those boys who would stand up for nothing for fear of making a scene.

Rossfan is making a scene though. That damn insurance levy, damn them Quinns, the cheek of them, why can't they just take it up the arse and quit fighting back and then everything would be rosy. Sure Rossfan just won't give up on it. He is planning a protest at the Connacht final. In order to stop the scene I think we should have a whip-round for poor old Rossfan. 2% of lets say €1500. €30 anybody for poor old Rossfan? 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on June 25, 2013, 03:25:51 PM
QuoteThere are thousands of people doing that already.

I'm not sure about that BnM. I've heard anecdotal evidence and its been used against the debt for equity swap idea being bandied about.
I'm talking about a mass default on a scale that would effectively kill the lending institutions as we know them.

I genuinely can't see anything else working. Currently waiting on a response from my local TDs as to their opinion on what should be done!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: trueblue1234 on June 25, 2013, 03:28:30 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on June 25, 2013, 03:12:01 PM
TrueBlue,
Talkin sh1te while running down your neighbours ( whom ye want to Unite with - how do ye expect that to work I wonder ) will achieve........... the same as the Greeks have achieved -- SWEET FA --- unlike what they would have achieved if they started working, showing enterprise, paying taxes etc etc.
You know like the Germans, Dutch, Danes etc and we are now learning about after 30 years of Fianna Fáil pay for nothing, get everything free and sure build like fuk and give tax breaks to speculators and let Bankers do what they like.

Why is letting the Government know that your not happy with how they are handling things "Talkin Sh!te". It's too late to stop or influence what has already happened, but at least by protesting and voicing our opinions it might bring additional pressure to make the government put more checks, legislation, laws etc in place to prevent something silimar happening again. At the minute they look very reluctant to do anything.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: deiseach on June 25, 2013, 03:38:24 PM
Quote from: Declan on June 25, 2013, 02:48:28 PM
I've come to the conclusion that the most effective form of action or civil disobedience that the ordinary people of Ireland can do is to refuse to continue to repay their mortgages. If enough people did that well then the consequences would have to be addressed within the next 6 months.

Nice thought, but good luck organising it. I remember when I worked in TalkTalk they made a hames of the transition to a new type of call. We got training in one level, when the calls started coming through they were a different type. The instructions from on high? Deal with it. For eight days this went on before the site manager returned from maternity leave and kicked ass to get it sorted. I was talking to a former manager who had come back down to the floor about it and said we should all just down tools/headsets. He gave me a shrewd look and said "I would because I don't care if they sack me. But if I stepped forward, you can be sure I'd be on my own". Thatcher was right when she said there was no such thing as society - she and her ilk ensured it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on June 25, 2013, 03:47:21 PM
I know. I drift between complete apathy and sheer anger every few minutes myself but then I think of my kids and say what sort of example am I setting. Evil prospers when good men do nothing a well known Irishman once said.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Rossfan on June 25, 2013, 04:24:06 PM
Quote from: boojangles on June 25, 2013, 03:25:07 PM
Quote from: trueblue1234 on June 25, 2013, 03:05:06 PM
And you'd remind me of one of those boys who would stand up for nothing for fear of making a scene.

Rossfan is making a scene though. That damn insurance levy, damn them Quinns, the cheek of them, why can't they just take it up the arse and quit fighting back and then everything would be rosy. Sure Rossfan just won't give up on it. He is planning a protest at the Connacht final. In order to stop the scene I think we should have a whip-round for poor old Rossfan. 2% of lets say €1500. €30 anybody for poor old Rossfan?

All right for ye Northern gang to be all up the Quinns' arses.
Ye haven't to pay the price for them like we have.
Keep ye're €30s . Ye'll need them after re unification to pay for Quinns' debts.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: trueblue1234 on June 25, 2013, 04:28:40 PM
LOL, Yeah Boojangles ya Northern Hoor ya!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: supersarsfields on June 25, 2013, 04:33:04 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on June 25, 2013, 04:24:06 PM
Quote from: boojangles on June 25, 2013, 03:25:07 PM
Quote from: trueblue1234 on June 25, 2013, 03:05:06 PM
And you'd remind me of one of those boys who would stand up for nothing for fear of making a scene.

Rossfan is making a scene though. That damn insurance levy, damn them Quinns, the cheek of them, why can't they just take it up the arse and quit fighting back and then everything would be rosy. Sure Rossfan just won't give up on it. He is planning a protest at the Connacht final. In order to stop the scene I think we should have a whip-round for poor old Rossfan. 2% of lets say €1500. €30 anybody for poor old Rossfan?

All right for ye Northern gang to be all up the Quinns' arses.
Ye haven't to pay the price for them like we have.Keep ye're €30s . Ye'll need them after re unification to pay for Quinns' debts.

Your also reaping the benefits of his business empire and have been for the last 30 odd years.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Rossfan on June 25, 2013, 05:14:06 PM
I thought all his business was in the North  ;D ;D
At least that's what he told the Court in Belfast anyway and sure he wouldn't mislead a Court now would he  :o
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: supersarsfields on June 25, 2013, 05:22:16 PM
SQ never said all his business was in the North. Nor did he tell a judge that. He said his centre of interest was in the North, so I'm afraid your talking more cr@p.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on June 25, 2013, 07:48:25 PM
Quote from: Hereiam on June 25, 2013, 10:13:32 AM
Dont think it really matters because the Irish Population will just sit back and do nothing. Look at Brazil and Greece, if you (the south) had any balls you would be out on the streets showing your disgust for what has happened.

I'd have thought watching our Northern brethren has taught us less marching is better than the alternative.

Heard on the radio that these calls were routinely recorded to, among other reasons, confirm the details of deals done by certain sections of the bank which would be agreed over the phone. Thus the existence of at least some recordings of conversations in Anglo must have been known especially since it was privatised.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Itchy on June 25, 2013, 09:30:31 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on June 25, 2013, 04:24:06 PM
Quote from: boojangles on June 25, 2013, 03:25:07 PM
Quote from: trueblue1234 on June 25, 2013, 03:05:06 PM
And you'd remind me of one of those boys who would stand up for nothing for fear of making a scene.

Rossfan is making a scene though. That damn insurance levy, damn them Quinns, the cheek of them, why can't they just take it up the arse and quit fighting back and then everything would be rosy. Sure Rossfan just won't give up on it. He is planning a protest at the Connacht final. In order to stop the scene I think we should have a whip-round for poor old Rossfan. 2% of lets say €1500. €30 anybody for poor old Rossfan?

All right for ye Northern gang to be all up the Quinns' arses.
Ye haven't to pay the price for them like we have.
Keep ye're €30s . Ye'll need them after re unification to pay for Quinns' debts.

Do you know what state Cavan is in and to whom we pay our taxes.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Rossfan on June 25, 2013, 09:33:42 PM
Quote from: Itchy on June 25, 2013, 09:30:31 PM
Do you know what state Cavan is in and to whom we pay our taxes.

An oxymoron if ever there was one  ;D ;D ;D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Itchy on June 25, 2013, 09:43:46 PM
Better that than a geographical moron. If you are going to throw shite around at least pretend you have half a brain.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Rossfan on June 25, 2013, 09:49:59 PM
Oh dear playing the man and being abusive.
Ah well .. hopefully you'll grow up some day. :'(
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: highorlow on June 27, 2013, 09:47:27 AM
Is it just me or does that Drummer lad on those recordings sound like he is up one day and down on another. On the latest recordings he certainly sounds like a man on cocaine.

He is definitely unstable sounding and then to think that other banks in the system were copying and trying to follow at the time the apparent money maker anglo model which was led by this lunatic really adds the corn into the puke.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Hereiam on June 27, 2013, 09:56:16 AM
If all conversations are recorded where are the conversions between Sean Quinn and the bankers. Surely that would set the record straight.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: highorlow on June 27, 2013, 10:09:43 AM
QuoteIf all conversations are recorded where are the conversions between Sean Quinn and the bankers. Surely that would set the record straight.

Ah those ones will probably be taped over.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Hardy on June 27, 2013, 10:30:59 AM
The only recorded conversations with Anglo executives are the calls made to and from Bowe's office. That's why he's the common element in all the recordings the Indo has released so far. This is because, as head of capital markets, he was in charge of the dealing room, where all phone calls were recorded for the official record of phone transactions.

So, unfortunately, we won't be hearing conversations with Quinn, unless he was talking to Bowe. Even more unfortunately, the same applies for Cowen, Neary, and the Central bank.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Jim_Murphy_74 on June 27, 2013, 10:36:54 AM
Quote from: Hereiam on June 27, 2013, 09:56:16 AM
If all conversations are recorded where are the conversions between Sean Quinn and the bankers. Surely that would set the record straight.

Only the line to the dealing room (ie Bowe's) phone was recorded.

So there is a limit to what they have.

/Jim.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Hardy on June 27, 2013, 10:45:47 AM
You don't say, Jim?


( :) )
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Jim_Murphy_74 on June 27, 2013, 11:09:19 AM
Quote from: Hardy on June 27, 2013, 10:45:47 AM
You don't say, Jim?


( :) )

Ooops,

I did get a warning that a new reply had been posted...should have read it.

I should also say I think Paul Williams was a little sniffy when young Murphy pointed that out on Morning Ireland today.

/Jim.



Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Hardy on June 27, 2013, 11:17:29 AM
Only messing Jim. I'd say Williams was miffed, OK that the hype balloon was slightly punctured. We've all been waiting, hoping they were building up to a big one starring Cowen and Fitzpatrick or the like.


(I know - you can't slightly puncture a balloon butyizknowwhatImean.)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Jim_Murphy_74 on June 27, 2013, 11:49:30 AM
Quote from: Hardy on June 27, 2013, 11:17:29 AM
Only messing Jim. I'd say Williams was miffed, OK that the hype balloon was slightly punctured. We've all been waiting, hoping they were building up to a big one starring Cowen and Fitzpatrick or the like.


(I know - you can't slightly puncture a balloon butyizknowwhatImean.)

Yeah,  when cornered he said that no politiicians are involved in or even referred to in any conversation they have.

/Jim.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: An Gaeilgoir on June 27, 2013, 01:38:31 PM
Quote from: Hardy on June 27, 2013, 11:17:29 AM
Only messing Jim. I'd say Williams was miffed, OK that the hype balloon was slightly punctured. We've all been waiting, hoping they were building up to a big one starring Cowen and Fitzpatrick or the like.


(I know - you can't slightly puncture a balloon butyizknowwhatImean.)

According to someone i know in the fraud squad, they are there, as every phone call in and out of Anglo was recorded on the Q.T by Seanie. The fraud squad have them in their possession. I can't imagine any media outlet every getting permission from their legal people  to divulge what is on them.........
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on June 27, 2013, 01:47:33 PM
Also known as Seanie's insurance policy.


@Silent_Major: Sick of the w/bankers?.....Demand an Independent investigation.

Join us outside the Dail at 6pm 3rd july
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: deiseach on June 27, 2013, 01:47:56 PM
Quote from: An Gaeilgoir on June 27, 2013, 01:38:31 PM
According to someone i know in the fraud squad, they are there, as every phone call in and out of Anglo was recorded on the Q.T by Seanie. The fraud squad have them in their possession. I can't imagine any media outlet every getting permission from their legal people  to divulge what is on them.........

It would not surprise me in the least, our very own Nixon. Now all we need is a Mark Felt...
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Hardy on June 27, 2013, 02:23:56 PM
I'd say Paul Williams does fancy himself as Woodward or Bernstein or, more likely, the two of them combined. Combined with Eliot Ness, probably.

Seriously, though, if the guards have more tapes, it mightn't be long before Paul has them.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Jim_Murphy_74 on June 27, 2013, 03:36:00 PM
Quote from: Hardy on June 27, 2013, 02:23:56 PM
I'd say Paul Williams does fancy himself as Woodward or Bernstein or, more likely, the two of them combined. Combined with Eliot Ness, probably.

Seriously, though, if the guards have more tapes, it mightn't be long before Paul has them.

It's also a tad more upmarket than giving fancy nicknames to various Dublin scumbags for the Sunday World.

He gives the Indo a good link into a lot of cops too.

If he gets someone in the fraud squad to release other tapes (if they even exist) then there will be some hoohaa altogether.

/Jim.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on June 27, 2013, 04:50:32 PM
If it were Clare Daly or Ming Flanagan people would be complaining about the leaks.

That said there seems to be an awful lot of leaking from the boys in blue.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Rossfan on June 27, 2013, 05:34:05 PM
"Independent" Newspapers have been their ( boys in blue) Spin machine for a while now  ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: omagh_gael on June 28, 2013, 01:55:06 PM
Out of curiosity who were the protagonists in FF and the business/banking world who were involved in developing the policies that led to the Celtic tiger and its subsequent collapse?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on June 28, 2013, 02:13:49 PM
Quote from: omagh_gael on June 28, 2013, 01:55:06 PM
Out of curiosity who were the protagonists in FF and the business/banking world who were involved in developing the policies that led to the Celtic tiger and its subsequent collapse?

Never forget the PDs role in this.
The Galway races tent probably played a big role.
The media cheerleaders, not least the Indo/Sindo.
Bertie and Social Partnership, which in other countries would be a good idea, but not here. It simply turned into Qango jobs for the boys.
The 'One man show' portrayed so heroically in the media, Sean Fitzpatrick, Michael Fingleton, Sean Quinn, Bertie etc. It always ends in disaster (as those calling for Michael O'Leary to be made Taoiseach need to bear in mind).
Parish Pump politicians - the list is endless.
Corrupt representatives - Ray Burke, George Redmond etc.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Dinny Breen on June 28, 2013, 02:26:05 PM
Quote from: muppet on June 28, 2013, 02:13:49 PM
Quote from: omagh_gael on June 28, 2013, 01:55:06 PM
Out of curiosity who were the protagonists in FF and the business/banking world who were involved in developing the policies that led to the Celtic tiger and its subsequent collapse?

Never forget the PDs role in this.
The Galway races tent probably played a big role.
The media cheerleaders, not least the Indo/Sindo.
Bertie and Social Partnership, which in other countries would be a good idea, but not here. It simply turned into Qango jobs for the boys.
The 'One man show' portrayed so heroically in the media, Sean Fitzpatrick, Michael Fingleton, Sean Quinn, Bertie etc. It always ends in disaster (as those calling for Michael O'Leary to be made Taoiseach need to bear in mind).
Parish Pump politicians - the list is endless.
Corrupt representatives - Ray Burke, George Redmond etc.

I suppose Joe Public is innocent in all this...
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: muppet on June 28, 2013, 02:27:59 PM
Quote from: Dinny Breen on June 28, 2013, 02:26:05 PM
Quote from: muppet on June 28, 2013, 02:13:49 PM
Quote from: omagh_gael on June 28, 2013, 01:55:06 PM
Out of curiosity who were the protagonists in FF and the business/banking world who were involved in developing the policies that led to the Celtic tiger and its subsequent collapse?

Never forget the PDs role in this.
The Galway races tent probably played a big role.
The media cheerleaders, not least the Indo/Sindo.
Bertie and Social Partnership, which in other countries would be a good idea, but not here. It simply turned into Qango jobs for the boys.
The 'One man show' portrayed so heroically in the media, Sean Fitzpatrick, Michael Fingleton, Sean Quinn, Bertie etc. It always ends in disaster (as those calling for Michael O'Leary to be made Taoiseach need to bear in mind).
Parish Pump politicians - the list is endless.
Corrupt representatives - Ray Burke, George Redmond etc.

I suppose Joe Public is innocent in all this...

On the contrary, he has been the only one found guilty and sentenced.

5 years hard austerity and counting.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: AZOffaly on June 28, 2013, 02:28:19 PM
Was just going to add that Dinny. Joseph P. Public and also Opposition TDs calling on the governments to be ever more generous. Let's face it, every one of us probably had some part to play in this.

Them tapes are hard to listen to though. A slap on the gob for the arrogant pricks would be fierce satisfying altogether.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Declan on June 28, 2013, 03:52:27 PM
QuoteLet's face it, every one of us probably had some part to play in this.

Can I respectfully suggest that as someone who never voted for any of those spoofers, chancers and crooks that I be absolved from the "We all partied line" so favoured by politicos who have sailed off into the sunset with their gold plated pensions.

The good old Meeja have a huge role to play in this as well. Someday we'll look back on this and it will all seem funny ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: AZOffaly on June 28, 2013, 06:42:59 PM
Everyone is maybe an exageration, but loads of people went balubas in the boom. People who just couldn't afford it over extended themselves because everyone from the media down was saying Consume, Consume, Consume!!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Main Street on June 28, 2013, 07:24:56 PM
I suppose if the State removes the speed limits on the roads you can blame those car drivers for speeding and the resultant carnage.

Sure the ideology of greed permeated down through the strata of society.
The average citizen has had to take responsibility for whatever actions they took, many have had to take responsibility for the exorbitant mortgage for living accommodation.
On top of that, they have also had to take responsibility for the losses incurred elsewhere outside the sphere of their responsibility.
I píss upon the cries of 'everyones to blame', because they neglect to mention  that those who have taken on the burden of responsibility arising from their own actions have also taken on the majority of the burden of accumulated debt caused by this madness.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: armaghniac on June 28, 2013, 10:56:05 PM
QuoteEveryone is maybe an exageration, but loads of people went balubas in the boom. People who just couldn't afford it over extended themselves because everyone from the media down was saying Consume, Consume, Consume!!!

Lots of people also splashed out in the boom although others suggested they that they shouldn't. Everyone knows people who not only took out a very large mortgage, but who went on to furnish the place expensively from top to bottom entirely on credit, spurning the offer of a bed or wardrobe from a relative and helped themselves to a new car on credit as well.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: seafoid on June 29, 2013, 06:49:23 AM
Quote from: muppet on June 28, 2013, 02:13:49 PM
Quote from: omagh_gael on June 28, 2013, 01:55:06 PM
Out of curiosity who were the protagonists in FF and the business/banking world who were involved in developing the policies that led to the Celtic tiger and its subsequent collapse?

Never forget the PDs role in this.
The Galway races tent probably played a big role.
The media cheerleaders, not least the Indo/Sindo.
Bertie and Social Partnership, which in other countries would be a good idea, but not here. It simply turned into Qango jobs for the boys.
The 'One man show' portrayed so heroically in the media, Sean Fitzpatrick, Michael Fingleton, Sean Quinn, Bertie etc. It always ends in disaster (as those calling for Michael O'Leary to be made Taoiseach need to bear in mind).
Parish Pump politicians - the list is endless.
Corrupt representatives - Ray Burke, George Redmond etc.
And far too much easy credit with no responsible adults around

http://www.forbes.com/sites/karlwhelan/2013/06/28/the-anglo-tapes-the-guarantee-and-irelands-economic-crisis/

But it is very hard to stop a boom once it gets going.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on June 29, 2013, 10:14:25 PM
Newstalk 106-108 fm ‏@Newstalkfm 1h
BREAKING:  #Anglotapes latest. Former CEO of Anglo David Drumm threatened to punch the former Finance Minister Brian Lenihan #Newstalk


(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BN9NGuhCcAA9HAF.jpg:large)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Declan on July 03, 2013, 10:26:47 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jaZWyoOeA_o&sns=em


   (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jaZWyoOeA_o&sns=em)

The debt explained again. Frightening
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (They think its all over...)
Post by: Billys Boots on July 03, 2013, 10:36:33 AM
Quote from: seafoid on June 29, 2013, 06:49:23 AM
Quote from: muppet on June 28, 2013, 02:13:49 PM
Quote from: omagh_gael on June 28, 2013, 01:55:06 PM
Out of curiosity who were the protagonists in FF and the business/banking world who were involved in developing the policies that led to the Celtic tiger and its subsequent collapse?

Never forget the PDs role in this.
The Galway races tent probably played a big role.
The media cheerleaders, not least the Indo/Sindo.
Bertie and Social Partnership, which in other countries would be a good idea, but not here. It simply turned into Qango jobs for the boys.
The 'One man show' portrayed so heroically in the media, Sean Fitzpatrick, Michael Fingleton, Sean Quinn, Bertie etc. It always ends in disaster (as those calling for Michael O'Leary to be made Taoiseach need to bear in mind).
Parish Pump politicians - the list is endless.
Corrupt representatives - Ray Burke, George Redmond etc.
And far too much easy credit with no responsible adults around

http://www.forbes.com/sites/karlwhelan/2013/06/28/the-anglo-tapes-the-guarantee-and-irelands-economic-crisis/

But it is very hard to stop a boom once it gets going.

Good article seafóid, fair play!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: give her dixie on July 03, 2013, 11:38:34 AM
100 things Ireland could have got for the price of one Anglo Irish Bank...


http://brianmlucey.wordpress.com/2013/06/30/100-things-ireland-could-have-got-for-the-price-of-one-anglo-irish-bank/
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: armaghniac on July 03, 2013, 01:01:48 PM
In that 100 things, Bertie doesn't seem great value

QuoteHire Bertie to speak for 95 years

which doesn't seem as value as

Pay the salaries of TCD and UCD academics for 100 years. (i.e. pay several thousand people with a clue to speak)
Build 11,150 miles of dual carriageway
Build a shed 10k long by 4k wide and put it around Tullamore...
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: johnneycool on July 03, 2013, 01:45:15 PM
Quote from: Main Street on June 28, 2013, 07:24:56 PM
I suppose if the State removes the speed limits on the roads you can blame those car drivers for speeding and the resultant carnage.


Not only did they remove the speed limits, they made it easy for you to buy a ferrari and told you incessantly the road was going to be straight.

The crash was always going to be spectacular with those 'light touch regulations' in place.

Now you could argue that Joe Public was foolish in believing them, but anyone who wasn't on following this path was laughed at as being a scaremonger etc, etc. The lack of real true leadership in places of power and knowledge confounded this and they're going to walk into the sunset scot free, devoid of all blame and accountability.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout
Post by: muppet on July 07, 2013, 11:37:09 AM
Quote from: Rois on January 19, 2009, 05:34:16 PM
Quote from: muppet on January 19, 2009, 05:24:18 PM
Would it be better giving us all €100,000 each and let us decide what to do with it, instead of giving it all to the Banks and having them decide? (I know its a stupid idea but as the days go on it seems giving it to the banks is a worse one)

Wouldn't that be great - I'd give mine straight back to First Trust/AIB and get myself out of negative equity.  It's win-win.  Bank gets the cash, I feel a bit better and start spending money again.

It is a real pity all of the bailout money wasn't done from the bottom up, rather than from the top down.

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/anglo/if-we-got-the-four-billion-from-that-shower-of-clowns-on-dame-st-29401100.html (http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/anglo/if-we-got-the-four-billion-from-that-shower-of-clowns-on-dame-st-29401100.html)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: omagh_gael on July 07, 2013, 12:05:12 PM
I asked a couple of weeks ago who were the main players behind the Celtic Tiger policies, however, I have a few more questions:

1. So huge sums of money entered the Irish economy to kick start the boom. Did all this come from bond holders and the money markets? Or did the Irish government ask the mint to start printing away at the euros. I'm sure the 2nd option is very unlikely as it was a Europe wide currency and Ireland probably couldn't make those decisons.

2. Did anyone out there (politicians/academics/journalists etc.) put their hand up and say these policies were economic suicide either before or during the boom?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on July 07, 2013, 12:29:56 PM
Quote from: omagh_gael on July 07, 2013, 12:05:12 PM
I asked a couple of weeks ago who were the main players behind the Celtic Tiger policies, however, I have a few more questions:

1. So huge sums of money entered the Irish economy to kick start the boom. Did all this come from bond holders and the money markets? Or did the Irish government ask the mint to start printing away at the euros. I'm sure the 2nd option is very unlikely as it was a Europe wide currency and Ireland probably couldn't make those decisons.

2. Did anyone out there (politicians/academics/journalists etc.) put their hand up and say these policies were economic suicide either before or during the boom?

1. Actually for the infamous Promissory Note, the Irish Central Bank 'created' the money out of nothing. But that was after the crash.

The money that drove the boom came in via bondholders who bought bonds (debt) from our banks. This built up to a frenzy of lending especially once a) Bank of Scotland entered the market and b) AIB & BOI decided to try to match the insane activities of Anglo, to match their profits. There were warnings issued to our Government in the early 2000s about an overheating economy but the arrogance of McCreevy and Harney in particular, and the political needs of Bertie, led to them being ignored. (1998:http://www.independent.ie/business/overheating-irish-economy-could-threaten-euro-waigel-26179615.html (http://www.independent.ie/business/overheating-irish-economy-could-threaten-euro-waigel-26179615.html), 2000:http://www.rte.ie/news/2000/0221/5691-inflation/ (http://www.rte.ie/news/2000/0221/5691-inflation/), 2009 Report: http://www.thejournal.ie/warning-on-economy-repeatedly-ignored-by-bertie-aherns-government-report-94679-Mar2011/ (http://www.thejournal.ie/warning-on-economy-repeatedly-ignored-by-bertie-aherns-government-report-94679-Mar2011/))

2. Morgan Kelly: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gd6ZwqLePC0 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gd6ZwqLePC0) for one. McWilliams and others were predicting a property crash.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: omagh_gael on July 07, 2013, 12:48:36 PM
Cheers Muppet. 7.8% growth in one quarter is scary in comparison to the quarterly econmic growth/shrinkage of today's economy! Hindsight is wonderful but surely these buck eejits should have known that a major catastrophe was going to happen sooner or later. Were their egos and shelfishness that extreme they allowed this continue to meet their own needs?

From Muppet's link:

The warning comes as growth figures from the central statistics office show that the economy grew at a rate of 7.8 per cent in the second quarter of last year. The Minister for Finance, Charlie McCreevy, yesterday predicted the current boom in the Irish economy would continue, despite the worst inflation figures in a decade.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on July 08, 2013, 03:25:58 PM
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/conned-a-german-view-of-ireland-1.1454115?page=1 (http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/conned-a-german-view-of-ireland-1.1454115?page=1)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Billys Boots on July 08, 2013, 05:04:27 PM
Ah shure haven't we punished Fianna Fáil enough, the poor feckers!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on July 08, 2013, 09:11:09 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BOq0_jpCIAAqWtA.png:large)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: magpie seanie on July 08, 2013, 11:02:47 PM
Quote from: muppet on July 08, 2013, 03:25:58 PM
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/conned-a-german-view-of-ireland-1.1454115?page=1 (http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/conned-a-german-view-of-ireland-1.1454115?page=1)

An encouraging article and a pretty clear roadmap as to what we MUST do as a nation for those who hadn't copped this already.

We really are a nation that personifies the theme of "The Emporer's New Clothes." "The EU has been great for Ireland - look at all the money they gave us"......."soft landing"......"go away and commit suicide"

Our politicians are largely scum and fools but the people of this country keep voting for them and expecting a different result.

It's time for something different. Take back our oil and start again. Never, ever vote for FF, FG or Labour - they have all repeatedly failed the people. The people have suffered enough - it's time we took control back.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: thejuice on July 09, 2013, 11:50:36 AM
QuoteIt's time for something different. Take back our oil and start again. Never, ever vote for FF, FG or Labour - they have all repeatedly failed the people. The people have suffered enough - it's time we took control back.

Damn right. It's high time we tried something else. Take a brave step and walk away from the civil war parties, just this once and see what happens. Start thinking nationally and forget the parish pump for once.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Rossfan on July 09, 2013, 12:42:03 PM
Quote from: thejuice on July 09, 2013, 11:50:36 AM
QuoteIt's time for something different. Take back our oil and start again. Never, ever vote for FF, FG or Labour - they have all repeatedly failed the people. The people have suffered enough - it's time we took control back.

Damn right. It's high time we tried something else. Take a brave step and walk away from the civil war parties, just this once and see what happens. Start thinking nationally and forget the parish pump for once.

Well lads what practical realistic steps have ye in mind?
Remember in a democracy you can only vote for the candidates that stand for election in YOUR constituency.
Or are ye advocating another Egypt/Libya/Syria or what.
Or are ye just letting off frustrated steam ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on July 09, 2013, 12:43:27 PM
Quote from: thejuice on July 09, 2013, 11:50:36 AM
QuoteIt's time for something different. Take back our oil and start again. Never, ever vote for FF, FG or Labour - they have all repeatedly failed the people. The people have suffered enough - it's time we took control back.

Damn right. It's high time we tried something else. Take a brave step and walk away from the civil war parties, just this once and see what happens. Start thinking nationally and forget the parish pump for once.
But nobody is interested in reducing the budget deficit....
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Rossfan on July 09, 2013, 01:04:25 PM
Can you imagine how many votes a candidate/party would get if they said they'd increase all taxes by 5% and reduce all Social Welfare/Health/Education and other public spending by 10% and spelled out what exactly that would mean in practical terms? :D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on July 09, 2013, 03:10:53 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on July 09, 2013, 01:04:25 PM
Can you imagine how many votes a candidate/party would get if they said they'd increase all taxes by 5% and reduce all Social Welfare/Health/Education and other public spending by 10% and spelled out what exactly that would mean in practical terms? :D

Did you miss this in Seanie's post?

QuoteTake back our oil and start again
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: deiseach on July 09, 2013, 03:22:06 PM
Quote from: muppet on July 09, 2013, 03:10:53 PM
Take back our oil and start again

But but but businesses would leave! The same businesses who left in droves at the first sign of a downturn. It's amazing how many people seem to think that despite the long-run failure of our policy of tailoring everything to suit the needs of the sainted foreign investors, the solution is to double-down on the policy of tailoring everything to suit the needs of the sainted foreign investors.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on July 09, 2013, 03:26:36 PM
Quote from: deiseach on July 09, 2013, 03:22:06 PM
Quote from: muppet on July 09, 2013, 03:10:53 PM
Take back our oil and start again

But but but businesses would leave! The same businesses who left in droves at the first sign of a downturn. It's amazing how many people seem to think that despite the long-run failure of our policy of tailoring everything to suit the needs of the sainted foreign investors, the solution is to double-down on the policy of tailoring everything to suit the needs of the sainted foreign investors.

They would only leave when they are not making money. Oil & Gas will get more lucrative and these companies will not be going away. That Irish Times article 'Conned' above says it all.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: deiseach on July 09, 2013, 03:32:13 PM
Quote from: muppet on July 09, 2013, 03:26:36 PM
They would only leave when they are not making money. Oil & Gas will get more lucrative and these companies will not be going away. That Irish Times article 'Conned' above says it all.

I agree, and even if there is no oil or gas worth talking about it's about time we stopped being pushed around. We did everything that was asked of us in terms of creating a flexible labour market. We were frequently referenced before the crash by the likes of the Wall Street Journal as a model for other countries, and it did us naff all good.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on July 09, 2013, 04:03:41 PM
Quote from: muppet on July 09, 2013, 03:10:53 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on July 09, 2013, 01:04:25 PM
Can you imagine how many votes a candidate/party would get if they said they'd increase all taxes by 5% and reduce all Social Welfare/Health/Education and other public spending by 10% and spelled out what exactly that would mean in practical terms? :D

Did you miss this in Seanie's post?

QuoteTake back our oil and start again
How much is the oil worth ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on July 09, 2013, 04:49:11 PM
Quote from: seafoid on July 09, 2013, 04:03:41 PM
Quote from: muppet on July 09, 2013, 03:10:53 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on July 09, 2013, 01:04:25 PM
Can you imagine how many votes a candidate/party would get if they said they'd increase all taxes by 5% and reduce all Social Welfare/Health/Education and other public spending by 10% and spelled out what exactly that would mean in practical terms? :D

Did you miss this in Seanie's post?

QuoteTake back our oil and start again
How much is the oil worth ?

More than an Anglo, but less than one solitary Sam Maguire.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: magpie seanie on July 09, 2013, 05:19:07 PM
Quote from: seafoid on July 09, 2013, 12:43:27 PM
Quote from: thejuice on July 09, 2013, 11:50:36 AM
QuoteIt's time for something different. Take back our oil and start again. Never, ever vote for FF, FG or Labour - they have all repeatedly failed the people. The people have suffered enough - it's time we took control back.

Damn right. It's high time we tried something else. Take a brave step and walk away from the civil war parties, just this once and see what happens. Start thinking nationally and forget the parish pump for once.
But nobody is interested in reducing the budget deficit....

There are two major things you need to do to end a budget deficit (1) decrease spending and/or (2) increase revenue. I propose (2) by taking back our oil. Then we could even increase spending on necessary services but only if and when proper reforms take place. We cannot waste this possibly final opportunity.

My brother in the US made the point about how the tans used to always say that we weren't fit to govern ourselves. Turns out they might have been right so far but it's never too late to break a bad habit.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: thejuice on July 09, 2013, 05:35:30 PM
I plan to properly reply to earlier messages when I have more time.

However, quick ceist

Now that we are exporting wind generated electricty to the UK market through an undersea cable, how much are we taxing this and are we taxing the electric companies that set up here?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on July 18, 2013, 11:06:48 PM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-23369573 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-23369573)

Detroit becomes largest US city to file for bankruptcy

Detroit has lost a quarter of a million residents in the past decade

Emergency chief: Detroit 'insolvent'

The US city of Detroit in Michigan has become the largest American city ever to file for bankruptcy, with debts of at least $15bn (£10bn).

State-appointed emergency manager Kevyn Orr asked a federal judge to place the city into bankruptcy protection.

If approved, he would be allowed to liquidate city assets to satisfy creditors and pensions.

Detroit stopped unsecured-debt payments last month to keep the city running as Mr Orr negotiated with creditors.

He proposed a deal last month in which creditors would accept 10 cents on the dollar of what they were owed. Mr Orr suggested at the time there was a 50-50 chance of the city needing to file for bankruptcy.

In a letter accompanying Thursday's filing, Michigan's Governor Rick Snyder, a Republican, said he had approved the request from Mr Orr to file for Chapter 9 bankruptcy.

Gov Snyder said: "Only one feasible path offers a way out," adding that residents needed a clear exit from the "cycle of ever decreasing services".

"The only way to do those things is to radically restructure the city and allow it to reinvent itself without the burden of impossible obligations.

"It is clear that the financial emergency in Detroit cannot be successfully addressed outside of such a filing, and it is the only reasonable alternative that is available".

Mr Orr has said that the city's long-term debt could actually be between $17bn and $20bn.

The former manufacturing powerhouse's finances have struggled for some time, driven by a number of factors, including a steep population loss.

The city government has also been hit by a string of corruption scandals over the years.

Declining investment in street lights and emergency services have made it difficult to police the city.

The city lost 250,000 residents between 2000-10.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on August 07, 2013, 07:29:20 PM
This paragraph is from a document I read but am unable to provide a link to.

QuoteThe credit inflation analog to the Cantillon effect has played out perfectly in recent decades.
Central banks provided cheap money to banks, the cheap money artificially inflated asset prices,
artificially inflated asset prices made anyone connected to those assets rich as we became a
nation of speculators, those riches were achieved at everyone else’s expense, and ‘everyone
else’ has now realized what has happened and is understandable enraged … as Keynes
explained,

“Those to whom the system brings windfalls .... are the object of the hatred.
And now the social debasement is clear for all to see. The 99% blame the 1%, the 1% blame
the 47%, the private sector blames the public sector, the public sector returns the sentiment
… the young blame the old, everyone blame the rich … yet few question the ideas behind
government or central banks ...

Interestingly he was probably speaking about The States but it reads as pretty relevant for us too.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on August 16, 2013, 07:05:13 PM
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/16/education/a-city-borrows-so-its-schools-open-on-time.html?hp&_r=0 (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/16/education/a-city-borrows-so-its-schools-open-on-time.html?hp&_r=0)

PHILADELPHIA — Just a month after Detroit became the largest American city to file for bankruptcy, and with major cities like Chicago and Los Angeles struggling, this former manufacturing behemoth is also edging toward a financial precipice. But here the troubles are centered on the cash-starved public schools system.

The situation is not as dire yet as Detroit's. There is no talk of resorting to bankruptcy. But the problem is so severe that the city agreed at the last minute on Thursday to borrow $50 million just to be able to open schools on time. Even with that money, schools will open Sept. 9 with a minimum of staffing and sharply curtailed extracurricular activities and other programs.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Hardy on August 16, 2013, 07:31:41 PM
That's what you get when your mayor's a Nutter.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on August 16, 2013, 09:01:45 PM
Quote from: muppet on August 07, 2013, 07:29:20 PM
This paragraph is from a document I read but am unable to provide a link to.

QuoteThe credit inflation analog to the Cantillon effect has played out perfectly in recent decades.
Central banks provided cheap money to banks, the cheap money artificially inflated asset prices,
artificially inflated asset prices made anyone connected to those assets rich as we became a
nation of speculators, those riches were achieved at everyone else's expense, and 'everyone
else' has now realized what has happened and is understandable enraged ... as Keynes
explained,

"Those to whom the system brings windfalls .... are the object of the hatred.
And now the social debasement is clear for all to see. The 99% blame the 1%, the 1% blame
the 47%, the private sector blames the public sector, the public sector returns the sentiment
... the young blame the old, everyone blame the rich ...
yet few question the ideas behind
government or central banks ...

Interestingly he was probably speaking about The States but it reads as pretty relevant for us too.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCRIuq56Pss
Title: Greece needs another 'definitely the last one this time' bailout.
Post by: muppet on August 20, 2013, 06:05:52 PM
http://euobserver.com/economic/121160 (http://euobserver.com/economic/121160)

Greece will need third bailout, German minister says
TODAY @ 17:53
RELATED German finance minister visits angry Greece
BY VALENTINA POP
BERLIN - A month before general elections in Germany, finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has broken the taboo of admitting that Greece will need a third bailout when the current one runs out, in 2014.

"There will have to be another programme in Greece," Schaeuble said on Tuesday (20 August) during a campaign rally in the northern-German town of Ahrensburg.

As part of a third programme, he mentioned another lowering of the interest rates on the loans the eurozone has given to Greece.

"They are not out of the woods yet," he said.

So far, the German government has steered clear of admitting that the current bailout, worth €130 billion, will not suffice to get Greece out of the vicious spiral of deficit and debt.

Chancellor Angela Merkel, who is seeking re-election on 22 September, has meanwhile struck a more cautious tone.

"We always said that we will have to reassess the situation of Greece end 2014 or beginning of 2015. It is wise to stick to this calendar," she told Ruhr-Nachrichten on Tuesday.

Earlier this year, Germany's insistence not to deal with a funding gap of almost €10 billion for 2015-2016 delayed the negotiations on the second bailout for Greece, as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was reluctant to sign off on a programme that does not get the country out of its financial mess once and for all.

The IMF was insisting at the time for EU governments to also take a cut on their loans to Greece, in order to lower the country's debt.

But Schaeuble on Tuesday again ruled out another debt restructuring for Greece, after private creditors agreed to lose more than half of their money on Greek bonds as part of the second bailout.

Speaking to foreign correspondents in Berlin on Monday, Green opposition leader Juergen Trittin said he expects another debt restructuring, adding that "Merkel always delays a decision until the very last moment, even if in the end it turns out to be more costly."

The German central bank is meanwhile also expecting a third bailout for Greece shortly after the German elections or "early 2014, at the latest," German weekly Spiegel reports, citing an internal Bundesbank document.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on September 05, 2013, 07:21:53 PM
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/mp-asks-did-eu-taxpayers-underwrite-bale-s-transfer-1.1514965 (http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/mp-asks-did-eu-taxpayers-underwrite-bale-s-transfer-1.1514965)

MP asks: Did EU taxpayers underwrite Bale's transfer?

Who exactly is funding Real Madrid's record-breaking €100 million purchase of 24-year-old Gareth Bale from Tottenham Hotspur? Could it by any chance be the European taxpayer?

As the transfer window closed on Monday night, Deloitte's Sports Business Group calculated that UK premiership clubs spent a record-breaking €630 million this year compared to the previous record of €500 million in 2008, with Bale by far the most expensive signing.
However, as the deal was done, Dutch right-wing politician Geert Wilders tabled what he clearly hopes will be an embarrassing parliamentary question for Dutch finance minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who is also chairman of the Eurogroup of finance ministers.
As the Netherlands struggles to find public spending cuts worth €6 billion this year, what Mr Wilders wants is an assurance that it's not the squeezed Dutch taxpayer who's subsidising Bale's move.

Wilders, who has called for the first in a series of mass protests against austerity for later this month, argues that Real Madrid's €100 million largesse is only possible because the club has borrowed heavily from its Spanish bank, Bankia.

The problem, he maintains, is that Bankia is still in existence thanks only to a €19 billion EU bailout.

Wilders has begun a debate, and the question many Dutch are now asking has its own reverse logic: could Gareth Bale ultimately be used to guarantee the solvency of Bankia?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Hound on September 06, 2013, 11:07:09 AM
Quote from: magpie seanie on July 09, 2013, 05:19:07 PM
Quote from: seafoid on July 09, 2013, 12:43:27 PM
Quote from: thejuice on July 09, 2013, 11:50:36 AM
QuoteIt's time for something different. Take back our oil and start again. Never, ever vote for FF, FG or Labour - they have all repeatedly failed the people. The people have suffered enough - it's time we took control back.

Damn right. It's high time we tried something else. Take a brave step and walk away from the civil war parties, just this once and see what happens. Start thinking nationally and forget the parish pump for once.
But nobody is interested in reducing the budget deficit....

There are two major things you need to do to end a budget deficit (1) decrease spending and/or (2) increase revenue. I propose (2) by taking back our oil. Then we could even increase spending on necessary services but only if and when proper reforms take place. We cannot waste this possibly final opportunity.

My brother in the US made the point about how the tans used to always say that we weren't fit to govern ourselves. Turns out they might have been right so far but it's never too late to break a bad habit.
Late coming to this but:

"Taking back our oil will increase revenue" - I'd love to hear how!

There's 10 billion barrels of oil equivalent beneath the seabed off the west coast of Ireland, that the country hasn't "given away". But we're not sure where exactly it is and, more importantly, we've absolutely no clue whether it can be recovered economically. It will take multiple of millions of euro to find out, and more again to extract it.

So what we'd actually be doing by taking it all on ourselves would be spending spending spending, with no guarantee of recovering that money much less of making profit.  An offshore exploration well costs anything from €20M to €100M. Tell me, how many of these do you think the exchequer should fund to increase our revenues???

The Irish Times article complains that where a company does have a successful commerical oil/gas find outside Ireland (very few and far between to date) they are allowed to offset their costs! As if this some great tax scam - FFS!

Plenty of media coverage that in Norway they tax oil companies at 78% - "we should follow the Norway model, we'd all be rich".
Much less media coverage of the fact that where a company makes unsuccessful explorations, Norway give them a refund of 78% of their costs!

How would we be coping if we took that route, I wonder?
We gave 8 licences to companies to explore in 1995, they all spent a lot of money investigating and exploring. They all handed back their licences without earing a penny. This cost the state nothing.
We gave another 11 licences in  1997. So far, 10 of those companies have handed back their licences without earning a penny.

Our policy at the moment is to give licences to oil companies for free. But they take all the risk . If they suffer a loss they incur all the loss. If they earn a profit, they keep 60%, we keep 40% (or 75/25 if its a small profit).

Some think this means we're giving stuff away, yet only 3% of Irish offshore is currently under licence, its clear this is no "gift" to exploration companies. We're doing a poor job in attracting oil and gas investment. If we want to get anywhere near Norway, or lets say even Scotland, we need to do more to attract these companies to invest. We should not be trying to scare them away as the some on this thread think!

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on September 06, 2013, 02:32:45 PM
Quote from: Hound on September 06, 2013, 11:07:09 AM
Quote from: magpie seanie on July 09, 2013, 05:19:07 PM
Quote from: seafoid on July 09, 2013, 12:43:27 PM
Quote from: thejuice on July 09, 2013, 11:50:36 AM
QuoteIt's time for something different. Take back our oil and start again. Never, ever vote for FF, FG or Labour - they have all repeatedly failed the people. The people have suffered enough - it's time we took control back.

Damn right. It's high time we tried something else. Take a brave step and walk away from the civil war parties, just this once and see what happens. Start thinking nationally and forget the parish pump for once.
But nobody is interested in reducing the budget deficit....

There are two major things you need to do to end a budget deficit (1) decrease spending and/or (2) increase revenue. I propose (2) by taking back our oil. Then we could even increase spending on necessary services but only if and when proper reforms take place. We cannot waste this possibly final opportunity.

My brother in the US made the point about how the tans used to always say that we weren't fit to govern ourselves. Turns out they might have been right so far but it's never too late to break a bad habit.
Late coming to this but:

"Taking back our oil will increase revenue" - I'd love to hear how!

There's 10 billion barrels of oil equivalent beneath the seabed off the west coast of Ireland, that the country hasn't "given away". But we're not sure where exactly it is and, more importantly, we've absolutely no clue whether it can be recovered economically. It will take multiple of millions of euro to find out, and more again to extract it.

So what we'd actually be doing by taking it all on ourselves would be spending spending spending, with no guarantee of recovering that money much less of making profit.  An offshore exploration well costs anything from €20M to €100M. Tell me, how many of these do you think the exchequer should fund to increase our revenues???

The Irish Times article complains that where a company does have a successful commerical oil/gas find outside Ireland (very few and far between to date) they are allowed to offset their costs! As if this some great tax scam - FFS!

Plenty of media coverage that in Norway they tax oil companies at 78% - "we should follow the Norway model, we'd all be rich".
Much less media coverage of the fact that where a company makes unsuccessful explorations, Norway give them a refund of 78% of their costs!

How would we be coping if we took that route, I wonder?
We gave 8 licences to companies to explore in 1995, they all spent a lot of money investigating and exploring. They all handed back their licences without earing a penny. This cost the state nothing.
We gave another 11 licences in  1997. So far, 10 of those companies have handed back their licences without earning a penny.

Our policy at the moment is to give licences to oil companies for free. But they take all the risk . If they suffer a loss they incur all the loss. If they earn a profit, they keep 60%, we keep 40% (or 75/25 if its a small profit).

Some think this means we're giving stuff away, yet only 3% of Irish offshore is currently under licence, its clear this is no "gift" to exploration companies. We're doing a poor job in attracting oil and gas investment. If we want to get anywhere near Norway, or lets say even Scotland, we need to do more to attract these companies to invest. We should not be trying to scare them away as the some on this thread think!

Don't make me laugh. They will write off far more than that. We will see feck all.

http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2010/06/07/ryanair-is-paying-no-tax-despite-record-sales-irish-business-independentie/ (http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2010/06/07/ryanair-is-paying-no-tax-despite-record-sales-irish-business-independentie/)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Hound on September 06, 2013, 04:43:56 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 06, 2013, 02:32:45 PM
Don't make me laugh. They will write off far more than that. We will see feck all.

http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2010/06/07/ryanair-is-paying-no-tax-despite-record-sales-irish-business-independentie/ (http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2010/06/07/ryanair-is-paying-no-tax-despite-record-sales-irish-business-independentie/)
Muppet, are you a wind up merchant or do you believe Ryanair are doing something wrong regarding their tax per that article? If so, maybe you can explain it.

Do you actually believe that having spent €4 billion on new aircraft, that they are not entitled to tax allowances for this expenditure? (By the way, there isn't any country in the OECD world who would not give an aircraft company tax allowances for expenditure incurred in acquiring aircraft).

Also, whilst the Aer Lingus write-down of €220m would have been an expense in the Ryanair accounts, it absolutely would not have been allowed as a deduction against their trading profits for tax purposes.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on September 06, 2013, 04:47:39 PM
Quote from: Hound on September 06, 2013, 04:43:56 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 06, 2013, 02:32:45 PM
Don't make me laugh. They will write off far more than that. We will see feck all.

http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2010/06/07/ryanair-is-paying-no-tax-despite-record-sales-irish-business-independentie/ (http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2010/06/07/ryanair-is-paying-no-tax-despite-record-sales-irish-business-independentie/)
Muppet, are you a wind up merchant or do you believe Ryanair are doing something wrong regarding their tax per that article? If so, maybe you can explain it.

Do you actually believe that having spent €4 billion on new aircraft, that they are not entitled to tax allowances for this expenditure? (By the way, there isn't any country in the OECD world who would not give an aircraft company tax allowances for expenditure incurred in acquiring aircraft).

Also, whilst the Aer Lingus write-down of €220m would have been an expense in the Ryanair accounts, it absolutely would not have been allowed as a deduction against their trading profits for tax purposes.

You said if they earn a profit we get 40%.

That will never happen.

I just demonstrated an example with Ryanair. Huge profits, feck all tax. Corporations find ways of avoiding taxation and it is absurd to think our new oil mining friends would be any different.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Hound on September 06, 2013, 04:59:33 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 06, 2013, 04:47:39 PM
Quote from: Hound on September 06, 2013, 04:43:56 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 06, 2013, 02:32:45 PM
Don't make me laugh. They will write off far more than that. We will see feck all.

http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2010/06/07/ryanair-is-paying-no-tax-despite-record-sales-irish-business-independentie/ (http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2010/06/07/ryanair-is-paying-no-tax-despite-record-sales-irish-business-independentie/)
Muppet, are you a wind up merchant or do you believe Ryanair are doing something wrong regarding their tax per that article? If so, maybe you can explain it.

Do you actually believe that having spent €4 billion on new aircraft, that they are not entitled to tax allowances for this expenditure? (By the way, there isn't any country in the OECD world who would not give an aircraft company tax allowances for expenditure incurred in acquiring aircraft).

Also, whilst the Aer Lingus write-down of €220m would have been an expense in the Ryanair accounts, it absolutely would not have been allowed as a deduction against their trading profits for tax purposes.

You said if they earn a profit we get 40%.

That will never happen.

I just demonstrated an example with Ryanair. Huge profits, feck all tax. Corporations find ways of avoiding taxation and it is absurd to think our new oil mining friends would be any different.

The only thing absurd is your logic.

You clearly think if a company has a loss of 4,000 in Y1
but then earns profits of 1,000 in each of Y2, Y3 and Y4, that it should be paying tax.

As I said absurd.

Compnaies in every country pay tax on the difference between their profits and losses. That's how it works everywhere!


Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on September 06, 2013, 05:18:08 PM
Quote from: Hound on September 06, 2013, 04:59:33 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 06, 2013, 04:47:39 PM
Quote from: Hound on September 06, 2013, 04:43:56 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 06, 2013, 02:32:45 PM
Don't make me laugh. They will write off far more than that. We will see feck all.

http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2010/06/07/ryanair-is-paying-no-tax-despite-record-sales-irish-business-independentie/ (http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2010/06/07/ryanair-is-paying-no-tax-despite-record-sales-irish-business-independentie/)
Muppet, are you a wind up merchant or do you believe Ryanair are doing something wrong regarding their tax per that article? If so, maybe you can explain it.

Do you actually believe that having spent €4 billion on new aircraft, that they are not entitled to tax allowances for this expenditure? (By the way, there isn't any country in the OECD world who would not give an aircraft company tax allowances for expenditure incurred in acquiring aircraft).

Also, whilst the Aer Lingus write-down of €220m would have been an expense in the Ryanair accounts, it absolutely would not have been allowed as a deduction against their trading profits for tax purposes.

You said if they earn a profit we get 40%.

That will never happen.

I just demonstrated an example with Ryanair. Huge profits, feck all tax. Corporations find ways of avoiding taxation and it is absurd to think our new oil mining friends would be any different.

The only thing absurd is your logic.

You clearly think if a company has a loss of 4,000 in Y1
but then earns profits of 1,000 in each of Y2, Y3 and Y4, that it should be paying tax.

As I said absurd.

Compnaies in every country pay tax on the difference between their profits and losses. That's how it works everywhere!

Why would you assume I think that?

And why the Ad hominem all the time?

Ryanair has earned large profits every year since the early 2000s.

It still pays feck all tax.


And to your last point.

"Compnaies in every country pay tax on the difference between their profits and losses. That's how it works everywhere!"

It doesn't work everywhere that companies are given their raw material completely free of charge. They don't pay for the oil or gas. They take a risk on exploration but if they make a hit, they get it all for free. You are trumpeting the possibility of tax revenue from the profit.

Here is an equivalent. I decide to open a hotel. I spend money researching a location. I find a hotel I think is good. The State will then give me the hotel, or hotels completely free of charge. Any profit I make, they then are happy to merely take tax from, but they never ever charge me for the hotels. Of course, despite the fact the NAMA own half of the hotels in the country (due to them being unprofitable), no one in the State is stupid enough to just give them out for free. But that is exactly what they do for gas and oil.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Hardy on September 07, 2013, 10:00:12 AM
How then does Norway, the example we should be following, according to those who say we're giving away our oil, manage to collect its 78%?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on September 07, 2013, 01:31:53 PM
Quote from: Hardy on September 07, 2013, 10:00:12 AM
How then does Norway, the example we should be following, according to those who say we're giving away our oil, manage to collect its 78%?

http://www.statoil.com/en/about/history/pages/default3.aspx (http://www.statoil.com/en/about/history/pages/default3.aspx)

It was State Owned when it was set up. Since floated on the NYSE.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Hardy on September 07, 2013, 02:29:37 PM
Where does the 78% tax story come from?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on September 07, 2013, 02:50:17 PM
Quote from: Hardy on September 07, 2013, 02:29:37 PM
Where does the 78% tax story come from?

I don't think that figure came from me.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on September 07, 2013, 03:02:43 PM
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323716304578481402672631038.html (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323716304578481402672631038.html)

QuotePrime Minister Jens Stoltenberg, facing elections in September, last week disclosed a plan to lower the amount of development subsidies paid to oil and gas companies in order to offset tax cuts planned for non-oil companies working in mainland industries.

Traditionally paying only 9% of development costs, oil companies must pay 12% of their project costs as of 2014 under Mr. Stoltenberg's plan. The change comes after a series of huge cost overruns on offshore projects and amid concerns about oil sector cost inflation, both of which are considered to be fueled by generous tax deductions.

QuoteOil companies in Norway pay a 78% tax rate on income generated in Norway, compared with a corporate tax rate of 28%. The corporate tax rate falls to 27% in 2014

Can anyone explain all of the above in layman's (not Lehman's) terms please?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on September 07, 2013, 03:53:33 PM
http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2013/08/when-people-do-what-their-goverment-wont/ (http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2013/08/when-people-do-what-their-goverment-wont/)

This is really sickening.

(Note: The original at the link above has links to sources which don't work in the copied piece below. You are better off reading it on his own site.)

When Irish people do what their government won't

by Golem XIV on AUGUST 15, 2013 in LATEST
It has been clear for some time now that the ideal of equality before the law has been buried.

The US.  Department of Justice made it clear a few months ago, after it had declined to press criminal charges against a string of banks (Citi, Wachovia and HSBC), that 'Too Big To Fail' meant while such institutions could be investigated and fined, they could not ever be found criminally guilty, because that would endanger their continued survival. Thus TBTF equals TBTP.

The list of G-SIFI's (Globally Systemically Important Financial Institutions – both banks and Insurers) is therefore a list of those financial institutions that are now above the law. If it profits those institutions, and those who own and run them, to disregard the law, they can and will because all they face is a fine. A fine is just another marginal cost of doing business. A tax. And a small, discretionary one at that.

In Europe we have had no similarly outright admission by the State that TBTF means TBTP. Instead the G-SIFI lists of banks and insurers have been published without anyone in government caring to make it clear that the State has taken it upon itself to raise the golden financial class above the law.

Of course there is one loophole – just a tiny one and one that is easily ignored – but one nevertheless. And that is that if no Public Prosecutor will take a Bank to court then it is still possible for an ordinary citizen to do so (Of course how easy or impossible it is depends on the country). But In Ireland it is possible and one man, Michael Smith,  has decided to try.

Michael Smith is a former barrister and the owner and editor of The Village magazine in Dubiln. He, like me and many others, has had a long interest in the on-going case of the UniCredit whistleblower, Jonathan Sugarman, AKA WhisteblowerIRL. It was Mr Smith who accompanied Mr Sugarman when he went to to talk to the Irish authorities about what he knew. It was at that meeting that Mr Sugarman was told by the authorities that they might well prosecute him if he told them about the crime over which he had resigned from UniCredit, whereas they could not promise to prosecute the bank.

For those of you who don't know, the crime in question is actually very straightforward. Mr Sugarman's job as Risk Managere at UniCredit, was to make sure the Bank was solvent at the end of each day – to check its liquidity. Mr Sugarman became alarmed when he found, at the height of the Bubble, that UniCredit was in breach of its requirements. Not by just a little but by huge sums, and not on one rogue day but regularly. The Irish Law is very clear. It was Mr Sugarman's job to tell his bank and the regulator of the breach. This he did.

The bank told him to shut up. The regulator ignored him. Of the very few concrete actions taken by the authorities perhaps the most symbolic was that they removed from the Central bank's web site the document in which the law can be seen. You can however still see the law for yourself, here in sections 9.4 and 10.

Sickened by this attitude Mr Smith, in consultation with Mr Sugarman, has decided if the Irish DPP will not insitute an investigation/prosecution against UniCredit Ireland and several other Irish based banks such as Anglo, then The Village will.

  In an open letter to the Irish DPP Mr SMith calls their bluff. Essentially he asks is the Irish state's legal aparatus whoring for the banks or does it still have a single grain of honour left?

You can read the editorial here. The  whole article is only available in the latest print issue. You can read the  two previous articles he has written about the Sugarman/UniCredit affair here and here.

It comes to somthing when ordinary people have to uphold the laws because their government refuse to. But that is where we are, not just in Ireland but in all of our nations.

It remains to be seen what measures the banks and their friends in government will be willing to take to close off from the people from any hope of legal and peaceful redress.

I sincerely hope Mr Smith does file suit against Unicredit, Anglo and the others. I hope people are able to support him. Perhaps we, in other countries, can hope to do the same. Most fervently I hope the government in Ireland and the Trioka in Bruselles do not close down this hope of redress.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Hound on September 09, 2013, 07:36:14 AM
Quote from: Hardy on September 07, 2013, 10:00:12 AM
How then does Norway, the example we should be following, according to those who say we're giving away our oil, manage to collect its 78%?
I think you may be getting close to my point of view that those who say we're giving away our oil don't really know what they're talking about.

Norway taxes petroleum companies at a rate of 78% on their profits (income less expenditure less any prior losses). Where a company ceases petroleum activities in Norway having made an accumulated loss, Norway will give it a refund of 78% of its losses.

This compares to Ireland's rate which varies from 25% to 40% on profits. But we give zero compensation to companies who leave having made an accumulated loss.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on September 09, 2013, 09:36:06 AM
Quote from: Hound on September 09, 2013, 07:36:14 AM
Quote from: Hardy on September 07, 2013, 10:00:12 AM
How then does Norway, the example we should be following, according to those who say we're giving away our oil, manage to collect its 78%?
I think you may be getting close to my point of view that those who say we're giving away our oil don't really know what they're talking about.

Norway taxes petroleum companies at a rate of 78% on their profits (income less expenditure less any prior losses). Where a company ceases petroleum activities in Norway having made an accumulated loss, Norway will give it a refund of 78% of its losses.

This compares to Ireland's rate which varies from 25% to 40% on profits. But we give zero compensation to companies who leave having made an accumulated loss.

This is the key sentence: "Norway taxes petroleum companies at a rate of 78% on their profits".

We will tax at 25%, money we have yet to see from anyone. Talk of it rising to 40% is probably pie in the sky.


Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: CiKe on September 09, 2013, 10:41:47 AM
Quote from: muppet on September 09, 2013, 09:36:06 AM
Quote from: Hound on September 09, 2013, 07:36:14 AM
Quote from: Hardy on September 07, 2013, 10:00:12 AM
How then does Norway, the example we should be following, according to those who say we're giving away our oil, manage to collect its 78%?
I think you may be getting close to my point of view that those who say we're giving away our oil don't really know what they're talking about.

Norway taxes petroleum companies at a rate of 78% on their profits (income less expenditure less any prior losses). Where a company ceases petroleum activities in Norway having made an accumulated loss, Norway will give it a refund of 78% of its losses.

This compares to Ireland's rate which varies from 25% to 40% on profits. But we give zero compensation to companies who leave having made an accumulated loss.

This is the key sentence: "Norway taxes petroleum companies at a rate of 78% on their profits".

We will tax at 25%, money we have yet to see from anyone. Talk of it rising to 40% is probably pie in the sky.

Are investments in Norway still being made or are we talking about legacy investments? What was tax rate when the investments were made? It may not be possible to get new investment by setting a 78% tax rate.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Hound on September 09, 2013, 11:09:17 AM
Quote from: muppet on September 09, 2013, 09:36:06 AM
Quote from: Hound on September 09, 2013, 07:36:14 AM
Quote from: Hardy on September 07, 2013, 10:00:12 AM
How then does Norway, the example we should be following, according to those who say we're giving away our oil, manage to collect its 78%?
I think you may be getting close to my point of view that those who say we're giving away our oil don't really know what they're talking about.

Norway taxes petroleum companies at a rate of 78% on their profits (income less expenditure less any prior losses). Where a company ceases petroleum activities in Norway having made an accumulated loss, Norway will give it a refund of 78% of its losses.

This compares to Ireland's rate which varies from 25% to 40% on profits. But we give zero compensation to companies who leave having made an accumulated loss.

This is the key sentence: "Norway taxes petroleum companies at a rate of 78% on their profits".

We will tax at 25%, money we have yet to see from anyone. Talk of it rising to 40% is probably pie in the sky.
The key is Norway refunds 78% of costs incurred, so its the exchequer that takes the bulk of the risk and the bulk of the reward. In Ireland we allow the petroleum companies to take 100% of the risk, and allow them to keep between 60% and 75% of the profits they end up with.

If we haven't seen any tax from petroleum companies, its because they've haven't made any profits!

While, the 40% tax rate is enshrined in legislation, you could argue that it is pie in the sky at the moment, simply because Ireland attract so few petroleum companies to explore, therefore the likelihood of anyone making super profits is very small. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Hound on September 09, 2013, 11:31:31 AM
Quote from: CiKe on September 09, 2013, 10:41:47 AM
Are investments in Norway still being made or are we talking about legacy investments? What was tax rate when the investments were made? It may not be possible to get new investment by setting a 78% tax rate.
The 78% tax rate has been in for decades I believe. But Norway would get very little investment if it was a 78% tax rate and nothing else. As I mentioned (but muppet left out because it doesn't suit his agenda), Norway will refund you 78% of your loss if you fail to make profits. That was a huge help in encouraging companies to invest, and ended up building a success record that encouraged more and more exploration.

Despite our so called giveaway rates, we really struggle to find companies willing to fund exploration activities, compared to Norway and UK, who find it much easier to give licences out despite higher tax rates.

(The effective tax rate in Norway would be less that 78% in reality as they also give bonus allowances for capital spend).
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on September 09, 2013, 06:15:46 PM
Quote from: Hound on September 09, 2013, 11:31:31 AM
Quote from: CiKe on September 09, 2013, 10:41:47 AM
Are investments in Norway still being made or are we talking about legacy investments? What was tax rate when the investments were made? It may not be possible to get new investment by setting a 78% tax rate.
The 78% tax rate has been in for decades I believe. But Norway would get very little investment if it was a 78% tax rate and nothing else. As I mentioned (but muppet left out because it doesn't suit his agenda), Norway will refund you 78% of your loss if you fail to make profits. That was a huge help in encouraging companies to invest, and ended up building a success record that encouraged more and more exploration.

Despite our so called giveaway rates, we really struggle to find companies willing to fund exploration activities, compared to Norway and UK, who find it much easier to give licences out despite higher tax rates.

(The effective tax rate in Norway would be less that 78% in reality as they also give bonus allowances for capital spend).

Your 'agenda' insult is interesting because I find the small number of pro-oil/gas company people I encounter always seems to be quite aggressive on the subject. This is particularly the case when you ask them if they have any connection to the industry in any shape or form.

Anyway, I 'left that out' because I have never heard of it. That doesn't mean it isn't true, but a link might be more convincing than a sneer and no source.

My understanding is the oil companies in Norway pay some of the upfront costs regardless, meaning that whether they succeed or not, it still costs them some money. In Ireland if you strike oil or gas, you don't pay tax until everything is paid off. That means you take our oil or gas, and sell it, paying no tax, until you have paid off all of your own costs.

Finally, the statement that we gave it away free is still true. Paying for the infrastructure is one thing, a tax on profits is another, but they still pay nothing for the actual raw material.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: armaghniac on September 09, 2013, 10:09:17 PM
The oil situation is simple enough. If you have a high chance and know chance of success (Norway) then prospecting is not very risky and you'll go ahead even if there is a highish tax on the profits. If there is a lower or unknown chance of success (Ireland) then you need a decent payoff to make it worth looking in the first place.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Declan on September 10, 2013, 07:39:36 AM
How the golden inner circle really works:

A senior executive at Anglo Irish Bank at the time of the bank's collapse has been granted immunity from prosecution arising from the criminal investigations into the bank.
Matt Moran, Anglo's chief financial officer when the bank was nationalised in 2009, received the immunity agreement from the Director of Public Prosecutions about two years ago.
This was before criminal charges were brought against three former bankers as a result of the investigations. Their trial is due to begin early next year.
Mr Moran and his Dublin-based solicitors did not respond to calls and emails to their offices. The DPP would not answer any questions as to why the immunity deal had been granted.
"This office does not comment on individual cases," said a spokeswoman for the DPP. "I would add that the case is of course pending before the courts and due for trial in January 2014."
Mr Moran was the second most senior financial officer at Anglo Irish Bank.
After the bank was taken into State hands, Mr Moran was promoted to the role of director of group finance in February 2009 under new chairman Donal O'Connor before he left the bank later that year.
Mr Moran, who was never a director of the board of the bank, was best known for his "investor relations" role, dealing with shareholders, banking analysts at stockbrokers and the media.
He joined Anglo in 2002 and was a key member of the management team led by chief executive David Drumm after he took up the role of chief financial officer in 2004.

During 2008 he led the bank's ultimately unsuccessful campaign to counteract the negative comment about the bank in the financial community as investors started to bet against the bank's share price.
In recent years the former banker has been working in Luxembourg where he is chief executive of Lombard International Assurance, which offers investments to wealthy clients.
A chartered accountant from Castlebar in Co Mayo, Mr Moran featured in the recently published "Anglo Tapes" recordings of conversations between Anglo executives in 2008. The calls showed how the bank executives struggled to deal with a run on deposits and attempted to deal with the destabilising effect of businessman Seán Quinn's large investment in the bank.

Mr Moran helped set up meetings between Anglo and Fine Gael's Enda Kenny, then leader of the opposition, in late 2008 to push the bank's interests within political circles. This followed the introduction of the State bank guarantee as the financial crisis deepened the government's involvement in the banking sector.
Mr Moran also had contact with former Fianna Fáil TD Beverley Flynn, who like Mr Kenny is from Mr Moran's home county of Mayo, on discussions with the then minister for finance, Brian Lenihan.
The trial of former Anglo directors and executives Seán FitzPatrick, Willie McAteer and Pat Whelan for providing unlawful financial assistance to 16 individuals – 10 long-standing customers of the bank and six members of Seán Quinn's family – to buy shares in the bank is scheduled to begin in January.
Mr Moran liaised with the Financial Regulator and investment bank Morgan Stanley, which was advising Anglo, on the unwinding of Mr Quinn's investment in 2008, a transaction that propped up the share price.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Declan on September 10, 2013, 07:58:15 AM
This guy Moran is some beaut alright:

TOM LYONS – 21 JULY 2013

Matt Moran was chief financial officer with Anglo Irish Bank in the final years before it collapsed, costing the State up to €30bn.

He was educated at St Gerald's College, Castlebar, Co Mayo, between 1984 and 1990, and his parents for many decades ran Rocky's Pub, just across the road from Taoiseach Enda Kenny's constituency office.

Mr Kenny undoubtedly knew the Moran family, even if both men have declined to comment on how well they were acquainted.

Mr Moran joined Anglo in 2002 and rose to become its chief financial officer. He was one of a group of young buccaneering bankers who formed around David Drumm when he was made chief executive in 2005.

Mr Drumm wanted to double the size of Anglo in under three years, and he needed men like Moran to help him achieve his goal.

For a while it worked, and Anglo was named by consultants Oliver Wyman as the best small bank in the world in 2007 in a glittering ceremony in Davos, Switzerland.

Then the credit crunch came, and Anglo's share price started its dizzying descent. During this time, Mr Moran can be heard several times on the Anglo Tapes turning the air blue under pressure.

In early 2008 as the world's banks started to run out of cash, he was recorded discussing Sean Quinn – then the country's richest man – who had taken a massive punt on Anglo, with John Bowe, the bank's head of treasury.

"[Quinn] is down just over a bill [€1bn]," Mr Bowe tells Mr Moran on the tapes, "Anybody even f***ing listening to that. It is frightening."

"The market is bigger than any man. It is the great leveller," Mr Moran replies.

"Yeah, it is, isn't it?" Mr Bowe says.

"You stupid c**t [Quinn]. He really put us at risk," Mr Moran whispers back.

In a second tape, this one recorded in September 2008, two months before the "Enda K" emails, Mr Moran is recorded discussing the bank's desperate struggle to get fresh funds.

He and Mr Bowe joke about how they planned to raise €5bn from a British fund manager.

"I can get a bit of drink into him. I might say to him I'd like about €5bn before the 30th [Anglo's year end]," Mr Moran says to Mr Bowe, who laughs.

"Get him to sign the beer mat," replies Mr Bowe, who asks: "Do you think he could give us a one-night stand?"

"If I can promise him there's no STD out of it," says Mr Moran.

This wild conversation is in marked contrast to Mr Moran's calm November emails to Beverley Cooper Flynn, in which he reassures her that Anglo is strong "versus other European peers" and in a "prudent" scenario would lose only about €500m over the next six years while making profits of €10.3bn.

Mr Moran is currently CEO of Lombard International Assurance in Luxembourg. He has for several years refused to comment on Anglo, and declined again last week.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: johnneycool on September 10, 2013, 08:42:54 AM
Quote from: Declan on September 10, 2013, 07:39:36 AM
How the golden inner circle really works:

A senior executive at Anglo Irish Bank at the time of the bank's collapse has been granted immunity from prosecution arising from the criminal investigations into the bank.
Matt Moran, Anglo's chief financial officer when the bank was nationalised in 2009, received the immunity agreement from the Director of Public Prosecutions about two years ago.
This was before criminal charges were brought against three former bankers as a result of the investigations. Their trial is due to begin early next year.
Mr Moran and his Dublin-based solicitors did not respond to calls and emails to their offices. The DPP would not answer any questions as to why the immunity deal had been granted.
"This office does not comment on individual cases," said a spokeswoman for the DPP. "I would add that the case is of course pending before the courts and due for trial in January 2014."
Mr Moran was the second most senior financial officer at Anglo Irish Bank.
After the bank was taken into State hands, Mr Moran was promoted to the role of director of group finance in February 2009 under new chairman Donal O'Connor before he left the bank later that year.
Mr Moran, who was never a director of the board of the bank, was best known for his "investor relations" role, dealing with shareholders, banking analysts at stockbrokers and the media.
He joined Anglo in 2002 and was a key member of the management team led by chief executive David Drumm after he took up the role of chief financial officer in 2004.

During 2008 he led the bank's ultimately unsuccessful campaign to counteract the negative comment about the bank in the financial community as investors started to bet against the bank's share price.
In recent years the former banker has been working in Luxembourg where he is chief executive of Lombard International Assurance, which offers investments to wealthy clients.
A chartered accountant from Castlebar in Co Mayo, Mr Moran featured in the recently published "Anglo Tapes" recordings of conversations between Anglo executives in 2008. The calls showed how the bank executives struggled to deal with a run on deposits and attempted to deal with the destabilising effect of businessman Seán Quinn's large investment in the bank.

Mr Moran helped set up meetings between Anglo and Fine Gael's Enda Kenny, then leader of the opposition, in late 2008 to push the bank's interests within political circles. This followed the introduction of the State bank guarantee as the financial crisis deepened the government's involvement in the banking sector.
Mr Moran also had contact with former Fianna Fáil TD Beverley Flynn, who like Mr Kenny is from Mr Moran's home county of Mayo, on discussions with the then minister for finance, Brian Lenihan.
The trial of former Anglo directors and executives Seán FitzPatrick, Willie McAteer and Pat Whelan for providing unlawful financial assistance to 16 individuals – 10 long-standing customers of the bank and six members of Seán Quinn's family – to buy shares in the bank is scheduled to begin in January.
Mr Moran liaised with the Financial Regulator and investment bank Morgan Stanley, which was advising Anglo, on the unwinding of Mr Quinn's investment in 2008, a transaction that propped up the share price.

I hope this immunity agreement as has clause in it that it can be revoked if he doesn't squeal like a little piggie?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: trueblue1234 on September 10, 2013, 08:56:50 AM
Quote from: johnneycool on September 10, 2013, 08:42:54 AM
Quote from: Declan on September 10, 2013, 07:39:36 AM
How the golden inner circle really works:

A senior executive at Anglo Irish Bank at the time of the bank's collapse has been granted immunity from prosecution arising from the criminal investigations into the bank.
Matt Moran, Anglo's chief financial officer when the bank was nationalised in 2009, received the immunity agreement from the Director of Public Prosecutions about two years ago.
This was before criminal charges were brought against three former bankers as a result of the investigations. Their trial is due to begin early next year.
Mr Moran and his Dublin-based solicitors did not respond to calls and emails to their offices. The DPP would not answer any questions as to why the immunity deal had been granted.
"This office does not comment on individual cases," said a spokeswoman for the DPP. "I would add that the case is of course pending before the courts and due for trial in January 2014."
Mr Moran was the second most senior financial officer at Anglo Irish Bank.
After the bank was taken into State hands, Mr Moran was promoted to the role of director of group finance in February 2009 under new chairman Donal O'Connor before he left the bank later that year.
Mr Moran, who was never a director of the board of the bank, was best known for his "investor relations" role, dealing with shareholders, banking analysts at stockbrokers and the media.
He joined Anglo in 2002 and was a key member of the management team led by chief executive David Drumm after he took up the role of chief financial officer in 2004.

During 2008 he led the bank's ultimately unsuccessful campaign to counteract the negative comment about the bank in the financial community as investors started to bet against the bank's share price.
In recent years the former banker has been working in Luxembourg where he is chief executive of Lombard International Assurance, which offers investments to wealthy clients.
A chartered accountant from Castlebar in Co Mayo, Mr Moran featured in the recently published "Anglo Tapes" recordings of conversations between Anglo executives in 2008. The calls showed how the bank executives struggled to deal with a run on deposits and attempted to deal with the destabilising effect of businessman Seán Quinn's large investment in the bank.

Mr Moran helped set up meetings between Anglo and Fine Gael's Enda Kenny, then leader of the opposition, in late 2008 to push the bank's interests within political circles. This followed the introduction of the State bank guarantee as the financial crisis deepened the government's involvement in the banking sector.
Mr Moran also had contact with former Fianna Fáil TD Beverley Flynn, who like Mr Kenny is from Mr Moran's home county of Mayo, on discussions with the then minister for finance, Brian Lenihan.
The trial of former Anglo directors and executives Seán FitzPatrick, Willie McAteer and Pat Whelan for providing unlawful financial assistance to 16 individuals – 10 long-standing customers of the bank and six members of Seán Quinn's family – to buy shares in the bank is scheduled to begin in January.
Mr Moran liaised with the Financial Regulator and investment bank Morgan Stanley, which was advising Anglo, on the unwinding of Mr Quinn's investment in 2008, a transaction that propped up the share price.

I hope this immunity agreement as has clause in it that it can be revoked if he doesn't squeal like a little piggie?

He prob got the immunity agreement on the basis that he doesn't squeal like a pig!! There would be bigger fish than him to fry and it wouldn't surprise me if this was a brokered deal to limit the amount that will come out and how far it went.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on September 10, 2013, 09:08:49 AM
Matt Moran only rose to the top level, after the Bank Guarantee, after the revelation of Seanie Fitz's loans and after the Bank was nationalised.

Yes he was CFO, but he was hardly a serious decision maker. "Mr Moran was the second most senior financial officer at Anglo Irish Bank." This statement is true after all of the above happened and when Anglo was already a lame duck.

It is hard to know what the immunity deal is about, hopefully it is in return for assisting a proper criminal investigation into the bigger fish, but who knows? But 5 years on it is hard to be optimistic.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on September 10, 2013, 09:26:47 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on September 09, 2013, 10:09:17 PM
The oil situation is simple enough. If you have a high chance and know chance of success (Norway) then prospecting is not very risky and you'll go ahead even if there is a highish tax on the profits. If there is a lower or unknown chance of success (Ireland) then you need a decent payoff to make it worth looking in the first place.

This is fair enough if you are looking at things exclusively from the point of view of oil/gas exploration. It is a very high risk investment, but there is no shortage of investors as if you win it is literally hitting the jackpot. Especially in Ireland.

But what about the taxpayer? He has this extremely valuable, but difficult to use asset. We offer a regime whereby the speculator, if successful, can pump the OUR gas and oil without paying a single cent for it until he has sold enough of it to cover all of his costs. Then we only take tax on profits, which we do to every other business anyway.

Defenders of exploration seem to argue that paying tax on profits is actually paying for the oil or gas. It isn't.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Declan on September 10, 2013, 09:29:31 AM
QuoteMatt Moran only rose to the top level, after the Bank Guarantee, after the revelation of Seanie Fitz's loans and after the Bank was nationalised.

Yes he was CFO, but he was hardly a serious decision maker. "Mr Moran was the second most senior financial officer at Anglo Irish Bank." This statement is true after all of the above happened and when Anglo was already a lame duck.

It is hard to know what the immunity deal is about, hopefully it is in return for assisting a proper criminal investigation into the bigger fish, but who knows? But 5 years on it is hard to be optimistic.

You Mayo lads really do stick together don't ye ;) ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on September 10, 2013, 09:39:20 AM
Quote from: Declan on September 10, 2013, 09:29:31 AM
QuoteMatt Moran only rose to the top level, after the Bank Guarantee, after the revelation of Seanie Fitz's loans and after the Bank was nationalised.

Yes he was CFO, but he was hardly a serious decision maker. "Mr Moran was the second most senior financial officer at Anglo Irish Bank." This statement is true after all of the above happened and when Anglo was already a lame duck.

It is hard to know what the immunity deal is about, hopefully it is in return for assisting a proper criminal investigation into the bigger fish, but who knows? But 5 years on it is hard to be optimistic.

You Mayo lads really do stick together don't ye ;) ;)

I want the smoking gun! I don't care if it is a Mayoman caught with it or not, but I want to see some held accountable. Moran was too far down the food chain pre-Bank Guarantee.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: ludermor on September 10, 2013, 11:19:36 AM
Quote from: Declan on September 10, 2013, 09:29:31 AM
QuoteMatt Moran only rose to the top level, after the Bank Guarantee, after the revelation of Seanie Fitz's loans and after the Bank was nationalised.

Yes he was CFO, but he was hardly a serious decision maker. "Mr Moran was the second most senior financial officer at Anglo Irish Bank." This statement is true after all of the above happened and when Anglo was already a lame duck.

It is hard to know what the immunity deal is about, hopefully it is in return for assisting a proper criminal investigation into the bigger fish, but who knows? But 5 years on it is hard to be optimistic.

You Mayo lads really do stick together don't ye ;) ;)
Muppetsarsfields ...
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on September 10, 2013, 11:41:48 AM
Declan I see that article was written by Simon Carswell.

He wrote the excellent Anglo Republic and he knows his stuff.

There is a story in there somewhere, my guess is somewhere in here:

"The trial of former Anglo directors and executives Seán FitzPatrick, Willie McAteer and Pat Whelan for providing unlawful financial assistance to 16 individuals – 10 long-standing customers of the bank and six members of Seán Quinn's family – to buy shares in the bank is scheduled to begin in January.

Mr Moran liaised with the Financial Regulator and investment bank Morgan Stanley, which was advising Anglo, on the unwinding of Mr Quinn's investment in 2008, a transaction that propped up the share price."
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on September 10, 2013, 11:55:23 AM
Muppet

Whenever the crisis is over will you donate the thread to the national archives ?
It's such an interesting record of the mess.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Declan on September 10, 2013, 12:10:17 PM
QuoteDeclan I see that article was written by Simon Carswell.

He wrote the excellent Anglo Republic and he knows his stuff.

He did alright and and it's some read. You'd like to think that Moran has some information that's relevant to the case alright.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: CiKe on September 10, 2013, 12:57:09 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 09, 2013, 06:15:46 PM
Quote from: Hound on September 09, 2013, 11:31:31 AM
Quote from: CiKe on September 09, 2013, 10:41:47 AM
Are investments in Norway still being made or are we talking about legacy investments? What was tax rate when the investments were made? It may not be possible to get new investment by setting a 78% tax rate.
The 78% tax rate has been in for decades I believe. But Norway would get very little investment if it was a 78% tax rate and nothing else. As I mentioned (but muppet left out because it doesn't suit his agenda), Norway will refund you 78% of your loss if you fail to make profits. That was a huge help in encouraging companies to invest, and ended up building a success record that encouraged more and more exploration.

Despite our so called giveaway rates, we really struggle to find companies willing to fund exploration activities, compared to Norway and UK, who find it much easier to give licences out despite higher tax rates.

(The effective tax rate in Norway would be less that 78% in reality as they also give bonus allowances for capital spend).

Your 'agenda' insult is interesting because I find the small number of pro-oil/gas company people I encounter always seems to be quite aggressive on the subject. This is particularly the case when you ask them if they have any connection to the industry in any shape or form.

Anyway, I 'left that out' because I have never heard of it. That doesn't mean it isn't true, but a link might be more convincing than a sneer and no source.

My understanding is the oil companies in Norway pay some of the upfront costs regardless, meaning that whether they succeed or not, it still costs them some money. In Ireland if you strike oil or gas, you don't pay tax until everything is paid off. That means you take our oil or gas, and sell it, paying no tax, until you have paid off all of your own costs.

Finally, the statement that we gave it away free is still true. Paying for the infrastructure is one thing, a tax on profits is another, but they still pay nothing for the actual raw material.

Is that true? Would Initial setup costs not be considered CAPEX and not operating expenses? In which case it wouldn't impact P+L at inception - there would just be change in Balance Sheet and a cash outflow. I would imagine that as soon as they start pumping then they have expenses and revenues and tax would be charged on the profits. Are you telling me that companies In Ireland won't pay tax until all infrastructure costs are recovered? That sounds odd.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on September 10, 2013, 01:09:44 PM
CiKe I am searching for where I read that and can't find it. I can find comments referring to such terms, but nothing verifiable.

Without a source, I can't back it up so for the moment it is a case of - I don't know. I will keep looking and post any proper reference to those terms.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on September 10, 2013, 01:16:53 PM
http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidmonagan/2012/11/01/black-gold-in-ireland-mindthe-eco-warriors-though/ (http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidmonagan/2012/11/01/black-gold-in-ireland-mindthe-eco-warriors-though/)

The Corrib Gas Project is a project that got under way in the late eighties and with the generous terms granted by that twisted hack Ray Burke saw Irelands controlling interest of 50% slashed to 0 % and the corporate tax rate of 25 % with all extraction costs to be deducted from the 25% tax rate , leaving us actual citizens of Ireland sucking hind tittie on the largest gas and oil find in the history of the State. Ireland will be lucky to see 12% out of the between 540 -700 billion euros that the Corrib field is worth. Wheres the cause for celebration here?

http://irishoilandgas.wordpress.com/2013/03/08/corrib/ (http://irishoilandgas.wordpress.com/2013/03/08/corrib/)

The above blog quotes a letter to the Irish Times from a former Shell employee, who, while writing in defence of Shell made the following statement:

Because Corrib's 25 per cent corporation tax will be payable only after the project has recovered its (fourfold increased) cost, a process which can begin only when the gas starts to flow (eight years late), the tax take will have been destroyed to the tune of at least 75 per cent on a net present value basis, compared to the original plan.

I am no accountant and don't know for certain if this proves my point in the way I hope it does. Anyone financially qualified able to comment?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Hound on September 10, 2013, 02:27:48 PM
Quote from: CiKe on September 10, 2013, 12:57:09 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 09, 2013, 06:15:46 PM
In Ireland if you strike oil or gas, you don't pay tax until everything is paid off. That means you take our oil or gas, and sell it, paying no tax, until you have paid off all of your own costs.


Is that true? Would Initial setup costs not be considered CAPEX and not operating expenses? In which case it wouldn't impact P+L at inception - there would just be change in Balance Sheet and a cash outflow. I would imagine that as soon as they start pumping then they have expenses and revenues and tax would be charged on the profits. Are you telling me that companies In Ireland won't pay tax until all infrastructure costs are recovered? That sounds odd.
CiKe, the rules for petroleum companies are different. All their capital expenditure in terms of exploring for offshore oil and gas is allowable in the same way as operating expenses. Bear in mind, this isn't an Irish thing. Irish and UK rules are very similar, and in Norway the deductions are more generous - for every €100k capital expenditure you have, you actually get a tax allowance of €130k.

None of Ireland, UK or Norway charge a royalty for oil/gas extracted. Tax is only charged on profits in all 3 countries (i.e. after all costs incurred are taken into account). Some countries do charge a royalty.

The question is, from a policy standpoint, do we want to attract oil companies to Ireland to invest and explore for oil, or do we want to leave the oil in the ground?

There are numerous reasons why Norway and UK are more attractive to exploration companies (much better record of success, easier planning/regulatory regimes, better infratrcuture thus lower exploration/exploitation costs,  and Norway has the additional advantage that the state effectively underwrites 78% of your costs).

The advantage Ireland currently has is the 25%-40% tax rate compared to UK 62% and Norway's 78%.

But at the moment it hasn't proven successful. In recent licensing rounds, Norway and UK still get far more interest than Ireland, particularly from larger companies.   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on September 10, 2013, 02:33:38 PM
Quote from: Hound on September 10, 2013, 02:27:48 PM
Quote from: CiKe on September 10, 2013, 12:57:09 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 09, 2013, 06:15:46 PM
In Ireland if you strike oil or gas, you don't pay tax until everything is paid off. That means you take our oil or gas, and sell it, paying no tax, until you have paid off all of your own costs.


Is that true? Would Initial setup costs not be considered CAPEX and not operating expenses? In which case it wouldn't impact P+L at inception - there would just be change in Balance Sheet and a cash outflow. I would imagine that as soon as they start pumping then they have expenses and revenues and tax would be charged on the profits. Are you telling me that companies In Ireland won't pay tax until all infrastructure costs are recovered? That sounds odd.
CiKe, the rules for petroleum companies are different. All their capital expenditure in terms of exploring for offshore oil and gas is allowable in the same way as operating expenses. Bear in mind, this isn't an Irish thing. Irish and UK rules are very similar, and in Norway the deductions are more generous - for every €100k capital expenditure you have, you actually get a tax allowance of €130k.

None of Ireland, UK or Norway charge a royalty for oil/gas extracted. Tax is only charged on profits in all 3 countries (i.e. after all costs incurred are taken into account). Some countries do charge a royalty.

The question is, from a policy standpoint, do we want to attract oil companies to Ireland to invest and explore for oil, or do we want to leave the oil in the ground?

There are numerous reasons why Norway and UK are more attractive to exploration companies (much better record of success, easier planning/regulatory regimes, better infratrcuture thus lower exploration/exploitation costs,  and Norway has the additional advantage that the state effectively underwrites 78% of your costs).

The advantage Ireland currently has is the 25%-40% tax rate compared to UK 62% and Norway's 78%.

But at the moment it hasn't proven successful. In recent licensing rounds, Norway and UK still get far more interest than Ireland, particularly from larger companies.

There is a third possibility. That we do it ourselves, obviously in partnership with someone with expertise, but still controlled by ourselves.

I know the Government has messed things up before (look at the Compulsory Purchases Order which really kicked things off in Mayo and lead to the Rossport 5) but it doesn't mean we couldn't do it right.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Hound on September 10, 2013, 03:35:43 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 10, 2013, 02:33:38 PM
There is a third possibility. That we do it ourselves, obviously in partnership with someone with expertise, but still controlled by ourselves.
Yes its an option, but I'm not sure if its realistic.

Drilling a well costs tens of millions. €60M is the broad estimate for an Atlantic exploration well. The stats for Ireland so far is that you have a 1 in 8 chance of making a discovery, and a 1 in 32 chance of making a commercial discovery. Spending 32 x €60M and getting one revenue stream would obviously be a poor scenario.

You would think those stats would improve in the future with advances in technology in terms of both finding reserves and being able to extract it more efficiently. But it would still be a big gamble. Would have been easier to do pre-crash!

I have absolutely no vested interest in oil and gas. But I would welcome oil companies discovering large commercial oil and gas reserves and bringing them onshore, hopefully making large profits after costs and paying the 40% tax and creating a big oil and gas industry on the west coast and turning Killybegs or somewhere else into a Stavanger or an Aberdeen with thousands of jobs created directly and indirectly, and no big outlay required by the exchequer.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on September 10, 2013, 03:41:21 PM
Quote from: Hound on September 10, 2013, 03:35:43 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 10, 2013, 02:33:38 PM
There is a third possibility. That we do it ourselves, obviously in partnership with someone with expertise, but still controlled by ourselves.
Yes its an option, but I'm not sure if its realistic.

Drilling a well costs tens of millions. €60M is the broad estimate for an Atlantic exploration well. The stats for Ireland so far is that you have a 1 in 8 chance of making a discovery, and a 1 in 32 chance of making a commercial discovery. Spending 32 x €60M and getting one revenue stream would obviously be a poor scenario.

You would think those stats would improve in the future with advances in technology in terms of both finding reserves and being able to extract it more efficiently. But it would still be a big gamble. Would have been easier to do pre-crash!

I have absolutely no vested interest in oil and gas. But I would welcome oil companies discovering large commercial oil and gas reserves and bringing them onshore, hopefully making large profits after costs and paying the 40% tax and creating a big oil and gas industry on the west coast and turning Killybegs or somewhere else into a Stavanger or an Aberdeen with thousands of jobs created directly and indirectly, and no big outlay required by the exchequer.

So would I.

But currently we have a system that is fraught with legal and social problems, has yielded no income whatsoever for the taxpayer, while for example, Shell made $27 Billion Profit last year and the Chief Executive took home $5 Million. And it is Shell that we are worried about,
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Hound on September 10, 2013, 04:33:33 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 10, 2013, 03:41:21 PM
Quote from: Hound on September 10, 2013, 03:35:43 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 10, 2013, 02:33:38 PM
There is a third possibility. That we do it ourselves, obviously in partnership with someone with expertise, but still controlled by ourselves.
Yes its an option, but I'm not sure if its realistic.

Drilling a well costs tens of millions. €60M is the broad estimate for an Atlantic exploration well. The stats for Ireland so far is that you have a 1 in 8 chance of making a discovery, and a 1 in 32 chance of making a commercial discovery. Spending 32 x €60M and getting one revenue stream would obviously be a poor scenario.

You would think those stats would improve in the future with advances in technology in terms of both finding reserves and being able to extract it more efficiently. But it would still be a big gamble. Would have been easier to do pre-crash!

I have absolutely no vested interest in oil and gas. But I would welcome oil companies discovering large commercial oil and gas reserves and bringing them onshore, hopefully making large profits after costs and paying the 40% tax and creating a big oil and gas industry on the west coast and turning Killybegs or somewhere else into a Stavanger or an Aberdeen with thousands of jobs created directly and indirectly, and no big outlay required by the exchequer.

So would I.

But currently we have a system that is fraught with legal and social problems, has yielded no income whatsoever for the taxpayer, while for example, Shell made $27 Billion Profit last year and the Chief Executive took home $5 Million. And it is Shell that we are worried about,
Would have been $27.5 billion but for Corrib!

It'll be interesting when Corrib is up and running and producing gas. On the one hand to hopefully show oil and gas companies that it is possible for things to run smoothly and efficiently in Ireland. And on the other hand to show the people that it can bring good employment and increased activity to the west coast.

Of course there's a lot that can still go wrong, like that poor young German who got killed in the tunnel during the week, and then we hear the last guy the Department hired to inspect the tunnelling wasn't allowed into the tunnel because he hadn't got the requisite qualifications (but it was grand because he still inspect it from the outside  ::) )!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on September 10, 2013, 04:40:49 PM
Quote from: Hound on September 10, 2013, 04:33:33 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 10, 2013, 03:41:21 PM
Quote from: Hound on September 10, 2013, 03:35:43 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 10, 2013, 02:33:38 PM
There is a third possibility. That we do it ourselves, obviously in partnership with someone with expertise, but still controlled by ourselves.
Yes its an option, but I'm not sure if its realistic.

Drilling a well costs tens of millions. €60M is the broad estimate for an Atlantic exploration well. The stats for Ireland so far is that you have a 1 in 8 chance of making a discovery, and a 1 in 32 chance of making a commercial discovery. Spending 32 x €60M and getting one revenue stream would obviously be a poor scenario.

You would think those stats would improve in the future with advances in technology in terms of both finding reserves and being able to extract it more efficiently. But it would still be a big gamble. Would have been easier to do pre-crash!

I have absolutely no vested interest in oil and gas. But I would welcome oil companies discovering large commercial oil and gas reserves and bringing them onshore, hopefully making large profits after costs and paying the 40% tax and creating a big oil and gas industry on the west coast and turning Killybegs or somewhere else into a Stavanger or an Aberdeen with thousands of jobs created directly and indirectly, and no big outlay required by the exchequer.

So would I.

But currently we have a system that is fraught with legal and social problems, has yielded no income whatsoever for the taxpayer, while for example, Shell made $27 Billion Profit last year and the Chief Executive took home $5 Million. And it is Shell that we are worried about,
Would have been $27.5 billion but for Corrib!

It'll be interesting when Corrib is up and running and producing gas. On the one hand to hopefully show oil and gas companies that it is possible for things to run smoothly and efficiently in Ireland. And on the other hand to show the people that it can bring good employment and increased activity to the west coast.

Of course there's a lot that can still go wrong, like that poor young German who got killed in the tunnel during the week, and then we hear the last guy the Department hired to inspect the tunnelling wasn't allowed into the tunnel because he hadn't got the requisite qualifications (but it was grand because he still inspect it from the outside  ::) )!

Is that true! FFS we have learned nothing regarding regulation.

Regarding Corrib the protestors get most of the blame for the delays, and there may be some of them who deserve such discredit. But Shell and in particular the Government should acknowledge their parts in the mess.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: CiKe on September 10, 2013, 05:23:13 PM
Quote from: Hound on September 10, 2013, 02:27:48 PM
Quote from: CiKe on September 10, 2013, 12:57:09 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 09, 2013, 06:15:46 PM
In Ireland if you strike oil or gas, you don't pay tax until everything is paid off. That means you take our oil or gas, and sell it, paying no tax, until you have paid off all of your own costs.


Is that true? Would Initial setup costs not be considered CAPEX and not operating expenses? In which case it wouldn't impact P+L at inception - there would just be change in Balance Sheet and a cash outflow. I would imagine that as soon as they start pumping then they have expenses and revenues and tax would be charged on the profits. Are you telling me that companies In Ireland won't pay tax until all infrastructure costs are recovered? That sounds odd.
CiKe, the rules for petroleum companies are different. All their capital expenditure in terms of exploring for offshore oil and gas is allowable in the same way as operating expenses. Bear in mind, this isn't an Irish thing. Irish and UK rules are very similar, and in Norway the deductions are more generous - for every €100k capital expenditure you have, you actually get a tax allowance of €130k.

None of Ireland, UK or Norway charge a royalty for oil/gas extracted. Tax is only charged on profits in all 3 countries (i.e. after all costs incurred are taken into account). Some countries do charge a royalty.

The question is, from a policy standpoint, do we want to attract oil companies to Ireland to invest and explore for oil, or do we want to leave the oil in the ground?

There are numerous reasons why Norway and UK are more attractive to exploration companies (much better record of success, easier planning/regulatory regimes, better infratrcuture thus lower exploration/exploitation costs,  and Norway has the additional advantage that the state effectively underwrites 78% of your costs).

The advantage Ireland currently has is the 25%-40% tax rate compared to UK 62% and Norway's 78%.

But at the moment it hasn't proven successful. In recent licensing rounds, Norway and UK still get far more interest than Ireland, particularly from larger companies.

Thanks for clearing up, hadn't realised that.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on September 26, 2013, 10:51:39 PM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-23/why-100-000-salary-may-yield-retirement-flipping-burgers.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-23/why-100-000-salary-may-yield-retirement-flipping-burgers.html)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Declan on September 27, 2013, 09:49:17 AM
Read that article yesterday muppet. Scary stuff. Also read another one related to the sunshine states e.g Arizona etc which have become increasingly popular with retirees and thae unusual sight of all the retail, fast food places etc being staffed by 65+ still trying to survive.

Another casualty of the unregulated financial greed that has devoured the developed world 

Read this one and shiver - http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/looting-the-pension-funds-20130926 (http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/looting-public-pensions-a-new-think-tank-study-20130926)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on September 29, 2013, 11:06:22 AM
A bit closer to home.......

Honahan's dramatic u-turn has my bullshit radar going overboard.

This might explain some of that: http://www.thejournal.ie/anglo-tapes-new-drumm-1105853-Sep2013/?utm_source=twitter_self (http://www.thejournal.ie/anglo-tapes-new-drumm-1105853-Sep2013/?utm_source=twitter_self)

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: armaghniac on October 02, 2013, 07:10:05 PM
check who is spending your taxes
http://www.publicpolicy.ie/where-does-your-tax-go/#middle-link
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on October 02, 2013, 07:32:08 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on October 02, 2013, 07:10:05 PM
check who is spending your taxes
http://www.publicpolicy.ie/where-does-your-tax-go/#middle-link

Great link that.

Over half my taxes go to Social Supports and Health.

Personally I would prioritise Health and Education.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Declan on October 03, 2013, 09:41:20 AM
http://www.theguardian.com/business/ireland-business-blog-with-lisa-ocarroll/2011/aug/08/ireland-debt-crisis (http://www.theguardian.com/business/ireland-business-blog-with-lisa-ocarroll/2011/aug/08/ireland-debt-crisis)

Is Morgan Kelly right again??
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on October 03, 2013, 12:16:48 PM
Quote from: Declan on October 03, 2013, 09:41:20 AM
http://www.theguardian.com/business/ireland-business-blog-with-lisa-ocarroll/2011/aug/08/ireland-debt-crisis (http://www.theguardian.com/business/ireland-business-blog-with-lisa-ocarroll/2011/aug/08/ireland-debt-crisis)

Is Morgan Kelly right again??

I completely agree with him on who was/is to blame.

But I hope he is wrong on us not having reached the bottom. Although he has form on being right despite everyone hoping he is wrong.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: armaghniac on October 03, 2013, 12:42:08 PM
Quotehttp://www.theguardian.com/business/ireland-business-blog-with-lisa-ocarroll/2011/aug/08/ireland-debt-crisis

This article is over 2 years old. Has Kelly said something new?
All the evidence suggests that the property market has now stabilised after a 50% drop, which more or less accords with Kelly's prediction of values halving.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Declan on October 03, 2013, 12:43:59 PM
QuoteAll the evidence suggests that the property market has now stabilised after a 50% drop,

Not everywhere
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on October 18, 2013, 09:14:47 PM
http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/10/argentina-pay-500-million-resolve-debts/#utm_source=mailchimp&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EMAIL_DAILY_10AM (http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/10/argentina-pay-500-million-resolve-debts/#utm_source=mailchimp&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EMAIL_DAILY_10AM)

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Franko on November 06, 2013, 10:43:54 PM
This could shake things up a bit... read from the bottom upwards...

Pearse Doherty ‏@PearseDoherty  9h 
We hold view to publish them at a future date, as the publication of these secret conversations are in the public interest #anglotapes

Pearse Doherty ‏@PearseDoherty  9h 
The majority of these recordings are not currently in the public domain and cover the period between February & September 2008 #anglotapes

Pearse Doherty ‏@PearseDoherty  9h
On the advice of Senior Counsel, we have taken the decision not to release the tapes at this time #anglotapes

Pearse Doherty ‏@PearseDoherty  9h
It has always been my view that the FF gov had more info in relation to the bank prior to the guarantee than they previously disclosed

Pearse Doherty ‏@PearseDoherty  9h 
We have Anglo tapes available to the Gardaí and the Governor of the Central Bank We have also retained a copy with my solicitor #anglotapes

Pearse Doherty ‏@PearseDoherty  9h 
Sinn Féin was anonymously sent a copy of secret recordings involving senior Anglo officials majority of recordings are not currently public
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on November 07, 2013, 06:14:21 PM
Yip all there: https://twitter.com/PearseDoherty (https://twitter.com/PearseDoherty)

This will be interesting alright.

That period roughly covers the time from Bear Stearns being sold for a song to JP Morgan, to the collapse of Lehmans.

In Ireland Sean Quinn's CFD was causing him to crumble, Anglo was starting to get into serious trouble and (something that has been played down) the ECB was lending our banks more and more money via ELAs. These ELAs were supposed to be support to banks with liquidity difficulties.

Here is a quick reuters explanation:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/03/21/uk-factbox-ecbs-emergency-idUKBRE92K0DT20130321 (http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/03/21/uk-factbox-ecbs-emergency-idUKBRE92K0DT20130321)

ELA is effectively emergency loans given by euro zone national central banks to strapped commercial banks.

The loans are given at the discretion of the national central bank although they have to be approved by the ECB.

The ECB defines ELA as support given by central banks in "exceptional circumstances and on a case-by-case basis to temporarily illiquid institutions and markets".

It adds that the national central banks may provide ELA "against adequate collateral" and only to "illiquid but solvent" credit institutions


The Bank Guarantee was presented to the Dáil as a move to support 'illiquid' banks, not insolvent ones.

I wonder did anyone of importance know that it was really the latter?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on November 28, 2013, 12:33:37 PM
http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2013/09/whistelblowing-and-immunity-in-ireland/ (http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2013/09/whistelblowing-and-immunity-in-ireland/)

Whistleblowing and Immunity in Ireland

by Golem XIV on SEPTEMBER 24, 2013 in LATEST
Immunity from Prosecution is an slightly odd concept – but nowhere is it so odd as it is in Ireland it would seem.

A Prosecution service (such as a Director of Public Prosecution) will occassionally grant Immunity to someone so they can testify against others without what they say being used to implicate themselves in wrong-doing.  The idea is generally to use a small fish to catch a larger one.

The only other kind of immunity I know of is that 'granted' by those who are about to be testified against. It usually involves something terminal such a car crash ( Karen Silkwood , Michael Hastings, Paul White: All whistleblowers all died in car crashes), being beaten to death in police custody (Sergei Magnitsky) , unaccountably dropping down dead  (Alexander Perepilichnyy -  A Magnitsky case Whistleblower)  or a simple bullet to the head (Yves Coulon Agip Affair). These are very effective but slightly drastic and can attract unwanted attention,

The Irish it seems may have invented a third possibly better kind.  It's called the Immunity-so-you-don't-ever-have-to-testify – against anyone.

Back in 2008 Mr Matt Moran was the Chief Financial Officer at Anglo Irish Bank. He was, therefore, intimately involved in all aspects of the debacle that was and still is Anglo. His various florrid opinions on the parlous state of Anglo's finances prior to its implosion, how the wealthy of Ireland were removing their money from the bank and from Ireland, and sending it abroad, his considered opinion of Mr Seán Quinn (Ireland's most notoious property tycoon and sometime Anglo investor and customer)  and how, with just a bit of drink and a beer mat he could get 5 billion euros out of  a British fund manager, are all available to hear in the Anglo tapes or read exceprts from here.

Mr Moran is in some ways the kind of witness for whom immunity was invented – he certainly would know who did what and when.

No surprise then that the Irish DPP granted Mr Moran immunity. But the Irish DPP appears to have taken a novel approach. It turns out the Immunity was granted two years ago though no one at the time was told. The information only came to light when the Irish Times revealed it in September 2013. Why it came to light then I shall come back to.

But what is a little odd is that during that whole two years, no prosecution starring Mr Moran has taken place. No date set, as far as I know for any trial of former Anglo CEO and Mr Moran's boss, Mr David Drumm. The only trial with a start date is that of

,,, former Anglo directors and executives Seán FitzPatrick, Willie McAteer and Pat Whelan for providing unlawful financial assistance to 16 individuals – 10 long-standing customers of the bank and six members of Seán Quinn's family – to buy shares in the bank is scheduled to begin in January.

This would be a trial looking at illegal share manipulation only.  Unless the charges were widened, which I doubt will happen, this trial would very carefully avoid looking at any issues of reckless lending, materially misleading clients and regulators as to the real value of assets, of securities or the real nature of collateral accepted for loans granted and most importantly, would avoid any issue lifting the lid on improper dealings between the banks officers and the government of the day such as may have happened in the sale of Anglo's Austrian subsidiary to Private Austrian bank Valartis. In other words it would be a show trial.

So far all the Irish people have been given by way of justice is a couple of Micky O'Mouse white-wash inquiries which found nothing wrong. And bear in mind that as far back as 2009 when Mr Lenihan the then finance Minister was shedding crocodile tears and expressing his "frustration" at the delays it was already being pointed out,

...that the scandals at the now-nationalised Anglo Irish Bank emerged at the same time as crooked financier Bernie Madoff was arrested in New York. Madoff has since been jailed for 150 years while not one Irish prosecution has reached the courts.

Funny that.

In the mean time Mr Moran long ago left Anglo and is now handsomely employed at Lombard International Assurance in Luxembourg.

Such a long absense of any prosecution – not even so far as we know any depostion from Mr Moran –  looks to me rather like an immunity granted as a reward for NOT testifying.

It is especially perplexing when you look at what Irish Law says about Immunity. These quotes are taken from the law regarding Immunity in relation to Cartels as laid down in the Competition Acts of 1991 and 1996 . I have used this document simply because it is available, I don't know under what particular act Mr Moran's Immunity was granted, but I doubt it makes any difference because generally Immunity is the same no matter which particular law it was granted under.  If I am wrong about this I would be grateful for a lawyer to correct me.

In the section which details the requirements for being considered for immunity Irish law says in pargraph 13 the applicant must have "...terminated its participation in the illegal activity". Mr Moran left Anglo and the bank iself is no more, so presumably he's OK on that one.

Paragraph 15 looks more difficult:

15 The applicant... must not have coerced another party to participate in the illegal activity and must not have acted as the instigator or have played the lead role in the illegal activity. The applicant must be able to show this to the satisfaction of the Authority.

So given that Mr Moran has been granted immunity are we to take it that the DPP is quite confident, having looked in to it in detail, that Mr Moran was not the instigator of any 'illegal activity', didn't play a lead role in any and did not coerce others?  And all this while he was number two at the bank? Wow!

That means Mr Drumm must have either acted alone  or coerced Mr Moran and all those below him. Ladies and gentleman are we going to see the world's first Rogue CEO?  Will we find Drumm was a KGB agent, spent time in Cuba and was a loner with deep psychological problems?  I can hardly wait. Though I suspect I may have to.

But back to poor used, abused and thoroughly innocent Mr Moran. Let's look at what Mr Moran would have been required to provide in return for his immunity and a free pass out of Ireland to pastures green in Luxembourg.

Section 16 says,

16  Throughout the course of the Authority's investigation and any subsequent prosecution, the applicant must provide complete and timely co-operation. In particular, the applicant must:

a) Reveal any and all offences ... in which it may have been involved;

b) Provide full, frank and truthful disclosure of all the evidence and information known or available to it or under its control, including all documentary and other records, wherever located, relating to the offences under investigation with no misrepresentation of any material facts; and

c) Co-operate fully, on a continuing basis, expeditiously and at its own expense throughout the investigation and with any ensuing prosecutions.

Let me remind you this is all from the Competition Acts but as I said the detail of immunity is unlikely to be very different in any other act. I just want you to be aware.

But taking this law as a likely indicator of the law under which Mr Moran was dealt with, it would seem that the DPP must already have details of all offences Mr Moran was aware of, all the documents and records necessary to detail and prove those offences and a full and frank disclosure of everything he knew about what went on at Anglo. Remember he was number two in the bank.

If the DPP does not have all this, then on what basis was Mr Moran given immunity from the law? If the DPP does have all this and must have had it all for several YEARS already, then what kind of bumbling half wits or conniving lick-spittles run the place that they still haven't done a thing with it all?

The whole idea of Immunity is to use a small fish to catch a larger one. Mr Moran however was the number two at Anglo. As the Chief Financial Officer he really only reported to one man above him, the CEO, Mr David Drumm. Both of them would have been technically answerable to the board, but the dysfunction or rather non-functioning of Anglo's board is now common knowledge. Thus by granting Immunity to Mr Moran the DPP has contrived to put one of the two TOP architects of the entire Anglo catastrophe forever beyond the reach of justice and the law.  (It remains to be seen if Mr Moran was granted partial or complete Immunity. Partial means he can't be prosecuted using his own testimony or evidence gained because of it. But he could be prosectured if other independently acquired evidence came to light. Complete Immunity means just that. Both are common in the U.S.A but have rarely been granted in Ireland.)

Whichever turns out to be the case for Mr Moran, what remains unchanged is that, if he ever is called to testify, most of those he could implicate will be junior to him. The lovely Sean FitzPatrick is so far only on trail for share price manipulation.

It is unusual, to say the least, to grant immunity to the largest suspect in order to help secure evidence against lesser suspects. Was there no one, not one person, lower down the food chain at Anglo who would have gladly accepted Immunity and testified against the two top suspects? Personally I find that hard to believe.

Which brings us back to wondering why was Mr Moran given immunity and why are we learning about it now?

A few weeks ago The Village Magazine wrote an open letter to the Irish DPP saying if no case was brought against UniCredit various other banks and a rogues gallery of neer-do-well bankers then the Village would. I wonder if the Village is going to make good on this threat? I do sincerely hope so.

It is interesting however that it is after the threat was made that we find out about Mr Moran and, as the web site "Public Inquiry" notes, that the DDP, Claire Loftus seems to have fired a warning shot at The Village, its owner Michael Smith and the UniCredit whistleblower Mr Sugarman.

In the preface to the DPP annual report Ms Loftus wrote,

I want to take this opportunity to say something generally about the risks of pre-trial publicity interfering with the right of an accused person to a fair trial.


The media and commentators have a high degree of responsibility to ensure that not only do they not commit a contempt of court by publishing or broadcasting prejudicial material but also that such publicity is not the cause of a trial being postponed for a long period, or even indefinitely.

These risks increase as any trial date approaches.

As Public Inquiry then asked,

Could it be that her warning is aimed at the editor of Village magazine, Michael Smith, who issued the ... challenge to Ms. Loftus and her office in the August/September issue?

A warning from the Irish DPP not to say or write anything that might prejudice a future prosecution – after so many years when even Madoff has already been goaled – seems to be taking the piss.  What are we all to wait for, the next Ice Age?! I have seen glaciers melt and mountain ranges erode faster than justice moves in ireland. It is even slower than it is in England and THAT is saying something.


The Irish authorities seized two MILLION documents from Anglo. They have had several very senior bankers trawling through the debris making sense of it all sufficient to wind it up. There are people who can piece together a great deal of who did what and when including the involvement of senior political figures.  U.S. Vulture funds connected with Elliott Associates have recently made it clear they think such documents exist and have gone to court to be allowed to find them.

Other documents relating the the infamous sale of Anglo's Austrian subsidiary to the private bank Valartis, using money lent to Valartis by Anglo! – which spirited away hundreds of millions from any possible bail-in which would confiscated those millions, and also protected the identity of the owners of those millions from curious Irish eyes, plus the connection of that sale to a knot of allegations of high level corruption among the political elite of Austria – there are anwers to all these questions in the documents at Anglo, at Dame Street and in the heads of the who worked  at Anglo. To give any of them immunity and then never get round to making them testify is ... what?

An immunity from prosecution is given when a proscutor wants to strike a deal with a witness so they can speak freely and in so doing bring about larger prosecutions. But if an immunity is given and no prosecution ever results then what is it? What was it given for really?

I would argue is is a kind of silk gag. The person doesn't have to say a word – they've been given immunity.  They are free to get on with life knowing they are not going to face prosecution.  It amounts to a seal on everything they know.

The warning from the DPP about not prejudicing is a sad joke. One that reveals what justice is about in Ireland.

Bear in mind one last thing. Mr Moran never stood up and said, 'ask me, I know who the guilty people are, I know what they did.' Yet two years ago he was quietly given immunity and he has said not a word, not a murmur of a deposition since.  Mr Jonathan Sugarman did stand up and say, 'help me please I know of wrong doing at the bank where I hold a senior position.' He went to the regulator and asked for help. He told them in a letter what his conerns were. He got others to independently verify his concerns.

He was ignored. He approached senior people in every Irish political party. They ignored him took, no action and some even tried to deny they had ever heard of him.

He was not offered Immunity. He was threatened with prosecution if he revealed what he knew.

Compare Mr Moran's and Mr Sugarman's treatment and you tell me what being granted Immunity looks like it's for.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on December 19, 2013, 08:51:16 AM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2013/1218/493606-bankers/ (http://www.rte.ie/news/2013/1218/493606-bankers/)

Three former senior bank executives have appeared in court charged in connection with a €7.2bn fraud.

Former CEO of Irish Life and Permanent Denis Casey, the bank's former finance director Peter Fitzpatrick and former head of treasury at Anglo Irish Bank John Bowe have all been granted bail to appear again next March.

The court was told the men were arrested in Dublin this morning by a detective inspector from the Garda Bureau of Fraud Investigation.
All three replied "no" when charged at the Bridewell Garda Station, the court heard.

Mr Bowe faces two charges, while Mr Casey and Mr Fitzpatrick each face one charge.

Each of the accused was granted bail on their own bond of €1,000 and an independent surety of €10,000.

They each have to sign on once a week at a local garda station and notify gardaí if they intend to travel abroad.

Judge Patricia McNamara was told the case has no factual connection with the forthcoming trial of three other former Anglo executives and warned the media not to report anything prejudicial.


This seems likely to be the arrangement whereby PTSB money with Anglo at the end of September 2008, just before Anglo's financial year end. I thought the figure was around €5 Billion though.

Typically, you have to look beyond our main news agencies to find any details:

http://www.4-traders.com/PERMANENT-TSB-GROUP-PUBLI-1412385/news/Permanent-TSB-Group-Public-Hldg-Ltd-Co--Former-Irish-bank-executives-charged-with-fraud-17624586/ (http://www.4-traders.com/PERMANENT-TSB-GROUP-PUBLI-1412385/news/Permanent-TSB-Group-Public-Hldg-Ltd-Co--Former-Irish-bank-executives-charged-with-fraud-17624586/)

Three former Irish bank executives, including the ex-chief executive of one of the country's largest lenders, have been charged with conspiracy to defraud in the run-up to the country's banking crisis, a court heard on Wednesday.
Former CEO of Irish Life and Permanent, Denis Casey, the lender's former finance director Peter Fitzpatrick and former head of treasury at Anglo Irish Bank, John Bowe, were granted bail by Dublin's district court and are due to appear again next March.

All three replied "no" when the charges were put to them by police earlier on Wednesday, the court heard. They will be able to lodge an official plea ahead of their trial.

No-one has so far been jailed for any part in the country's banking crisis that began in 2008 and eventually cost taxpayers more than 60 billion euros ($82.4 billion), or about two-fifths of national output.

The charges came ahead of the opening of a trial next year of three other senior executives at Anglo Irish Bank, which was nationalised in early 2009.

A representative of the Director of Public Prosecutions told the court on Wednesday there was "no factual connection" between the two cases.

All three men are accused of conspiracy to defraud between March and September 2008, that they conspired with each other to transfer 7.2 billion euros ($9.9 billion) between Anglo, Irish Life and Permanent and its Irish Life Assurance subsidiary, Dublin's district court heard.

Irish Life & Permanent has said it had deposited between 6 billion euros and 7 billion with Anglo in September 2008 to provide "exceptional support" at a time when the world's financial sector was hit badly by the collapse of Lehman Brothers.


Irish Life and Permanent was effectively nationalised in 2011.

Bowe faces a second charge of false accounting in December 2008, under the Theft and Fraud Offences Act, the court heard. ($1 = 0.7283 euros)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Main Street on December 19, 2013, 11:44:46 AM
To put that story in a nutshell

Three former senior bank executives have appeared in court charged in connection with a €7.2bn fraud

'Each of the accused was granted bail on their own bond of €1,000 and an independent surety of €10,000. They each have to sign on once a week at a local garda station and notify gardaí if they intend to travel abroad.'

Incredibly harsh bail conditions there,
expect 2 raps on the knuckle should a guilty verdict come in after a state sponsored show trial.






Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (The dog ate the Dept of Finance's home...)
Post by: muppet on January 10, 2014, 10:18:29 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/0110/497114-department-of-finance-banking-crisis-files/ (http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/0110/497114-department-of-finance-banking-crisis-files/)

Documents relating to the banking crisis have gone missing at the Department of Finance.

The department has conceded that some correspondence forwarded from Bank of Ireland to former minister for finance Brian Lenihan can no longer be located.

It says it has started a process to ensure the integrity of its records ahead of the banking inquiry.

The department released eight items.

Late last year, Sinn Féin finance spokesperson Pearse Doherty requested repeat copies of these documents.

He was told that two out of the eight could no longer be found.

When released in 2009, both had been completely redacted.

They concerned correspondence between the governor of Bank of Ireland Richard Burrows and an advisor to the Jupiter group, Noel Corcoran.

Jupiter was trying to buy Bank of Ireland at the time.

Mr Doherty said the fact that the department could not locate records was worrying ahead of the banking inquiry.

He said it raised questions as to whether other documents may have gone missing.

In a statement to RTÉ News this evening, the Department of Finance said it had carried out a widespread search for the documents and it was not clear why the original versions could not be located.

It said that it had undertaken a project which would ensure the completeness and integrity of its records from the time of the bank guarantee.

It said it was also considering the feasibility of improving its "records management procedures and processes".

It said that it was not aware of any documents relating to the bank guarantee which may have gone missing.

Mr Doherty said: "These letters existed in 2009.  They were released but the content was fully redacted to a journalist under the Freedom of Information legislation.

"However I have now been informed that these letters have gone missing from the Department of Finance.

"These are some of the only documents between the Governor of the Bank of Ireland and the Minister for Finance during a period when the government decided to pump €3.5m of taxpayers' money into that bank."

He went on to say: "The only reason we know that these documents are missing is because two separate FOIs were made on the same document over a four year period.  The question has to be asked about what other sensitive documents have gone missing.  The reality is that we may never know.

"If the upcoming banking inquiry is to be successful it is important that all relevant documents are found or returned."
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Denn Forever on January 18, 2014, 03:37:40 PM
Good news?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25788643

The credit rating agency Moody's has upgraded Ireland's debt from junk status to investment grade, saying its economy has growth potential.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on January 18, 2014, 05:51:07 PM
 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4339f826-7f78-11e3-b6a7-00144feabdc0.html

Irish sovereign debt yields little more than UK Gilts, despite the trauma of Ireland's banking sector collapse; the yield on Portugal's 10-year government paper has fallen 30 per cent in four months.All of these valuation movements, from Palo Alto to Lisbon, can be explained away individually. Maybe rich Russians will flock to Moncler's Alpine shops this season; Asos might achieve its global ambitions; and the thermostats of the future may be smart and beautifully designed.But it is clear they share a common fuel: quantitative easing. Cheap money has given us a period of "wild abandon", says Andrew Lapthorne of Société Générale. Roll on QE4.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: trueblue1234 on February 06, 2014, 03:07:21 PM
Any word on how the court case is going (And not William Roaches!!) Would have thought the biggest coporate/ Financial case ever in our history would have aroused a few comments? Or are we at the stage now where we're getting indifferent to the whole mess.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Rossfan on February 06, 2014, 05:22:43 PM
Those cnuts will probably be found not guilty  >:(
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: gerrykeegan on February 06, 2014, 05:34:12 PM
Can't see that happening. The volume of evidence is huge.
I nearly knocked Seanie Fitz down one day as I cycled up past the courts recently. Huge media presence there the last two days. It's going to be a long trial, I wonder how long the interest will stay so high.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on March 08, 2014, 08:07:16 AM
Morgan Kelly presentation at UCD Economics Soc
Whatever happened to Ireland?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8LCofepdUzE
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on March 09, 2014, 12:51:12 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 08, 2014, 08:07:16 AM
Morgan Kelly presentation at UCD Economics Soc
Whatever happened to Ireland?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8LCofepdUzE

Thanks for that. Well worth listening to him. He has been more right than anyone else right from the start.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on March 09, 2014, 06:49:19 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 09, 2014, 12:51:12 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 08, 2014, 08:07:16 AM
Morgan Kelly presentation at UCD Economics Soc
Whatever happened to Ireland?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8LCofepdUzE

Thanks for that. Well worth listening to him. He has been more right than anyone else right from the start.
Bond yields are low but only because of Draghi. The economy is still banjaxed
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Bord na Mona man on March 12, 2014, 12:18:40 PM
http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/family-gets-to-keep-home-after-150k-debt-is-written-off-by-aib-30084311.html

I see the precedent for debt write downs while keeping the asset has started. On one level I can see the logic in coming to arrangements in certain scenarios. Chances are the house wouldn't have fetched as much on the open market.

However, looking at the bigger picture, it's hard not to feel that the prudent folk who managed their lifestyles, struggled hard but paid their bills and didn't overstretch themselves are once again the mugs in this country.

I know, and know of several people who are strategic mortgage defaulters and are holding off for a similar write down. They are people who aren't paying a button on their primary residence mortgages, despite having the means to make significant payments. Others have long since stopped paying the mortgages on (multiple) investment properties and are merrily trousering the rent. In many respects they are still maintaining 2006 bubble era lifestyles.

Those who cheer such folks getting one up on 'de banks' usually fail to make the connection that it will be taxpayer picking up the tab once again.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: AZOffaly on March 12, 2014, 12:53:17 PM
I have to say I have sympathy for people who find themselves in a bind due to changed circumstance, negative equity and a mortgage they can't pay on a family home. Evictions from a family home must be a terrible, terrible thing.

However, the lads you describe are a different kettle of fish.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: armaghniac on March 12, 2014, 02:17:02 PM
Quote from: AZOffaly on March 12, 2014, 12:53:17 PM
I have to say I have sympathy for people who find themselves in a bind due to changed circumstance, negative equity and a mortgage they can't pay on a family home. Evictions from a family home must be a terrible, terrible thing.

However, the lads you describe are a different kettle of fish.

There are people who've ended up in over priced starter apartments and the like, and you have to have sympathy for them. But if someone is in a 5 bed des-res they should be expected to trade down, rather than be bailed out by taxpayers living in less fancy dwellings.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: magpie seanie on March 12, 2014, 03:40:19 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on March 12, 2014, 02:17:02 PM
Quote from: AZOffaly on March 12, 2014, 12:53:17 PM
I have to say I have sympathy for people who find themselves in a bind due to changed circumstance, negative equity and a mortgage they can't pay on a family home. Evictions from a family home must be a terrible, terrible thing.

However, the lads you describe are a different kettle of fish.

There are people who've ended up in over priced starter apartments and the like, and you have to have sympathy for them. But if someone is in a 5 bed des-res they should be expected to trade down, rather than be bailed out by taxpayers living in less fancy dwellings.

Tell us how that would work. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: magpie seanie on March 12, 2014, 03:48:09 PM
Quote from: Bord na Mona man on March 12, 2014, 12:18:40 PM
http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/family-gets-to-keep-home-after-150k-debt-is-written-off-by-aib-30084311.html

I see the precedent for debt write downs while keeping the asset has started. On one level I can see the logic in coming to arrangements in certain scenarios. Chances are the house wouldn't have fetched as much on the open market.

However, looking at the bigger picture, it's hard not to feel that the prudent folk who managed their lifestyles, struggled hard but paid their bills and didn't overstretch themselves are once again the mugs in this country.

I know, and know of several people who are strategic mortgage defaulters and are holding off for a similar write down. They are people who aren't paying a button on their primary residence mortgages, despite having the means to make significant payments. Others have long since stopped paying the mortgages on (multiple) investment properties and are merrily trousering the rent. In many respects they are still maintaining 2006 bubble era lifestyles.

Those who cheer such folks getting one up on 'de banks' usually fail to make the connection that it will be taxpayer picking up the tab once again.

I heard that on the news and to be honest my first thought was "where's my write down?" Government raiding my wages to pay back illegal debt that was nothing to do with me, boss laughs when I ask for more money - he is right, I have nowhere to go really unless I relocate and sell my house but....the value of my house has gone down, possibly in negative equity. And because I pay my mortgage and my bills I'll get nothing. f**k this country and the bastards who run it.

I don't mind paying my own debts. It's paying for others that pisses me off. They're taking money off me that I would like to spend on my kids.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: AZOffaly on March 12, 2014, 03:55:27 PM
Yeah, it's not fair, but please, less of the f**k this country stuff. f**k the bastards who run it by all means.

I suppose one way of looking at it is that society can be judged by how it treats its most vulnerable. And instead of focussing on the tosspots who tried to hit the big time, and now are caterwauling about having to ditch 2 or 3 houses, I think it's a good thing if a family can keep their home, if they've genuinely fallen on hard times. I don't want to see women and children being thrown out of the house in my name.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: magpie seanie on March 12, 2014, 04:26:46 PM
Quote from: AZOffaly on March 12, 2014, 03:55:27 PM
Yeah, it's not fair, but please, less of the f**k this country stuff. f**k the b**tards who run it by all means.

I suppose one way of looking at it is that society can be judged by how it treats its most vulnerable. And instead of focussing on the tosspots who tried to hit the big time, and now are caterwauling about having to ditch 2 or 3 houses, I think it's a good thing if a family can keep their home, if they've genuinely fallen on hard times. I don't want to see women and children being thrown out of the house in my name.

The people running it were voted in and will be voted in again. We're a crowd of eejits to keep accepting it. Look at the Minister for Finance's (for one but he is in charge here) back catalogue of failure and utter lack of compassion. A serial failure yet he is in charge of the Dept of Finance. Wrecks my head.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: AZOffaly on March 12, 2014, 04:40:37 PM
I think politicians in many countries are less than stellar, and most political systems have an element of corruption in it. Look at the lobby groups in the states, and any amount of crap going on in the world. Maybe instead of 'f**k this country' you mean 'f**k the human race'.

I love this country. I like the majority of the people I've met, I can have a good craic in any town in the country. I love our culture, our scenery, our games. I dislike our political class, but to be honest I think I would dislike most politicians in the entire world, so be it.

There's things that are pretty far from ideal, and I think we're getting better at throwing the bad shit out in the open. But it's still a great country to live in and raise kids in. In my opinion at least.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Bingo on March 12, 2014, 04:55:59 PM
Surprised that this has been made so public. This isn't the first deal nor will it be the last.

The worry from the banks point of view is that people will see a chance now to get a mortgage write-off.

From experience the bank would have gone full hog on this and this was the only solution. Its not enough to go in with a house in negative equity, the bank will turn the screw on your income and outcome and thats what they will go into minute detail on this area until they arrive at a solution. Any other security will also have been a factor.

The banks are playing ball but only when the circumstances fit.

It gives false hope to people when they read these headlines.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: magpie seanie on March 12, 2014, 05:20:13 PM
Quote from: AZOffaly on March 12, 2014, 04:40:37 PM
I think politicians in many countries are less than stellar, and most political systems have an element of corruption in it. Look at the lobby groups in the states, and any amount of crap going on in the world. Maybe instead of 'f**k this country' you mean 'f**k the human race'.

I love this country. I like the majority of the people I've met, I can have a good craic in any town in the country. I love our culture, our scenery, our games. I dislike our political class, but to be honest I think I would dislike most politicians in the entire world, so be it.

There's things that are pretty far from ideal, and I think we're getting better at throwing the bad shit out in the open. But it's still a great country to live in and raise kids in. In my opinion at least.

Is it though? What makes it great? The greatness you refer to - our culture, our scenery, our games is despite our ruling class*. Will our kids get a fair crack of the whip or will they be fcuked around by the ruling classes like we have, like my parents were?

My biggest abmition growing up was to never have to leave this country. Right now I'm not sure that was a great idea.


* - I say ruling class because the politicians are only the ones at the coalface. There are many unelected very powerful people who set the agenda - the politicians of FF/FG/Lab and others are merely their gophers.
Title: A couple of interesting graphs..
Post by: muppet on March 13, 2014, 12:22:32 AM
% of total income going to the top 1% of taxpayers:

(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d7/2008_Top1percentUSA.png)

US debt as a percentage of GDP:

(http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/4979e68630b7d9800073dbcd-480/debttogdppng.jpg)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: magpie seanie on March 13, 2014, 09:40:33 AM
Very interesting the correlation between those two graphs.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on March 13, 2014, 11:29:08 AM
Quote from: magpie seanie on March 13, 2014, 09:40:33 AM
Very interesting the correlation between those two graphs.

Yes, but I am hoping we don't follow the same trends after 1929!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Ulick on March 13, 2014, 02:42:27 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 13, 2014, 11:29:08 AM
Yes, but I am hoping we don't follow the same trends after 1929!

Cavan dominating Ulster? Or as Joe Brolly might term it "Return of the Black Death".
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on March 14, 2014, 12:50:55 AM
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/morgan-kelly-warns-our-real-economic-crisis-will-begin-if-ecb-credit-stops-1.1724130?page=3 (http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/morgan-kelly-warns-our-real-economic-crisis-will-begin-if-ecb-credit-stops-1.1724130?page=3)

.......Nowhere is Draghi's wizardry plainer than in our exit from the bailout. The sale in December of €500 million of government bonds at rates slightly above German ones was trumpeted here as national resurrection and in Berlin as vindication of the view that European peripherals can only recover when they start to admit the error of their spendthrift ways. However, behind the narratives of redemption and a triumphant return to the markets, with international financiers vying to lend to a newly creditworthy Ireland, the dismal reality is that these bonds were bought entirely by the State-controlled (or effectively controlled) banks AIB and Bank of Ireland with money slipped into their pockets by the ECB...........

(http://0.tqn.com/d/arthistory/1/5/e/A/1/Edvard-Munch-The-Scream-1895-sbs.jpg)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on March 14, 2014, 09:44:09 AM
Quote from: muppet on March 14, 2014, 12:50:55 AM
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/morgan-kelly-warns-our-real-economic-crisis-will-begin-if-ecb-credit-stops-1.1724130?page=3 (http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/morgan-kelly-warns-our-real-economic-crisis-will-begin-if-ecb-credit-stops-1.1724130?page=3)

.......Nowhere is Draghi's wizardry plainer than in our exit from the bailout. The sale in December of €500 million of government bonds at rates slightly above German ones was trumpeted here as national resurrection and in Berlin as vindication of the view that European peripherals can only recover when they start to admit the error of their spendthrift ways. However, behind the narratives of redemption and a triumphant return to the markets, with international financiers vying to lend to a newly creditworthy Ireland, the dismal reality is that these bonds were bought entirely by the State-controlled (or effectively controlled) banks AIB and Bank of Ireland with money slipped into their pockets by the ECB...........

(http://0.tqn.com/d/arthistory/1/5/e/A/1/Edvard-Munch-The-Scream-1895-sbs.jpg)
National resurrection is pure spin.

I think people are better off listening to the Stone Roses  tbh

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRwR7avc5Oc

The lyrics are made for people like spindoctors and economic overlords like Olli Pactus

Turn, turn, I wish you'd learn
There's a time and place for everything
I've got to get it through.
Cut loose 'cause you're no use
I couldn't stand another
Second in your company.
Don't waste your words I don't need anything from you,
I don't care where you've been or what you plan to do.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: AQMP on April 04, 2014, 11:15:12 AM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-26880492

Nama Northern Ireland property loan portfolio 'sold for £1bn'

Nama has sold its entire Northern Ireland property loan portfolio.  The purchaser is an international investment firm Cerberus Capital Management based in New York. It is understood they paid £1bn.  Nama properties include office blocks, shopping developments, pubs and hotels and development land.  The deal represents the largest single transaction ever by Nama, set up to handle property loans by the Republic's banks before the financial crash.  Nama is the Republic of Ireland's state controlled "bad bank".  It controls property loans originally made by Dublin-based banks, including loans worth about £4bn for NI property. First Minister Peter Robinson said the sale was "excellent news for the Northern Ireland economy".  "For some time I have made clear the danger to the local economy of leaving valuable assets undeveloped and the threat that these posed to otherwise profitable businesses. I believe that this deal can be of real benefit to our economy," Mr Robinson said.  "I am grateful to the authorities in the Republic for the way in which this transaction has been handled and the importance of assisting the Northern Ireland economy."  The first minister said he had spoken to Nama chairman Frank Daly and former United States Vice President Dan Quayle of Cerberus Capital Management on Thursday evening.  He said the conversation with Cerberus provided "great encouragement that they will work with the developers and the Executive to the benefit of all concerned".  "Dan Quayle offered to send a team to Belfast to meet with us to discuss the way forward and we intend to take him up on that offer.  "In the weeks to come the Northern Ireland Executive will work with Cerberus to ensure that the deal can help kick start growth in this area of our economy."
=======================================================================================

As an aside I note Cerberus is headed up by Dan Quayle, the man who famously couldn't spell "potato" - AQMP
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Billys Boots on April 04, 2014, 11:51:38 AM
Cereberus also, recently, acquired Greenstar - the state's largest waste management company, from the receiver (without its landfill 'assets'). 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: give her dixie on April 04, 2014, 12:26:41 PM
Some interesting reading on Cerberus .....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cerberus_Capital_Management
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Rois on April 04, 2014, 01:01:27 PM
This has been good reading for me this morning - means a report I had to do for NAMA isn't necessarily required now!  Woohoo.  One less stress to think about. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on April 09, 2014, 12:22:07 PM
http://www.thejournal.ie/anglo-irish-trial-1406214-Apr2014/?utm_source=twitter_self (http://www.thejournal.ie/anglo-irish-trial-1406214-Apr2014/?utm_source=twitter_self)

Some charges against Seán Fitzpatrick dropped in Anglo trial

The jury has been directed to find two of the former executives not guilty on a number of accounts.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on April 15, 2014, 07:31:59 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/0415/609081-ecb-parliament-banks/ (http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/0415/609081-ecb-parliament-banks/)

European lawmakers have signed off on new laws to make it easier to shut problem banks after long wrangling over rules for an industry blamed for triggering the economic crisis.......

...."The EU has lived up to its commitments," said Michel Barnier, the European official in charge of regulation.

"The banking union completes the economic and monetary union, puts an end to the era of massive bail-outs and ensures taxpayers will no longer foot the bill when banks face difficulties.".......

.....Crucially, the scheme introduces new rules making it easier to shunt losses onto the bondholders and even large depositors of failing banks although the conundrum of what to do if a very large bank wobbles remains.

There will also be an obligation for countries to ensure that schemes are in place to guarantee the first €100,000 in any savings account, although no European backstop is foreseen should they fall short.......

..But for many, Europe's response has been too slow.

Jamie Dimon, the chief executive of JP Morgan Chase recently said that European banks lag US peers who had largely recovered from the financial crash.

Some lawmakers also point to the shortcomings of Europe's centrepiece reform, in particular the failure to tackle megabanks.

"Too big to fail banks are simply too dangerous to exist," said Philippe Lamberts, a lawmaker from Belgium's Green party.

"As long as systemic financial institutions are allowed to exist in their current shape, taxpayers will remain exposed to paying for the follies of a runaway financial industry."....

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on April 15, 2014, 07:59:37 PM
Quote from: muppet on April 15, 2014, 07:31:59 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/0415/609081-ecb-parliament-banks/ (http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/0415/609081-ecb-parliament-banks/)

European lawmakers have signed off on new laws to make it easier to shut problem banks after long wrangling over rules for an industry blamed for triggering the economic crisis.......

...."The EU has lived up to its commitments," said Michel Barnier, the European official in charge of regulation.

"The banking union completes the economic and monetary union, puts an end to the era of massive bail-outs and ensures taxpayers will no longer foot the bill when banks face difficulties.".......

.....Crucially, the scheme introduces new rules making it easier to shunt losses onto the bondholders and even large depositors of failing banks although the conundrum of what to do if a very large bank wobbles remains.

There will also be an obligation for countries to ensure that schemes are in place to guarantee the first €100,000 in any savings account, although no European backstop is foreseen should they fall short.......

..But for many, Europe's response has been too slow.

Jamie Dimon, the chief executive of JP Morgan Chase recently said that European banks lag US peers who had largely recovered from the financial crash.

Some lawmakers also point to the shortcomings of Europe's centrepiece reform, in particular the failure to tackle megabanks.

"Too big to fail banks are simply too dangerous to exist," said Philippe Lamberts, a lawmaker from Belgium's Green party.

"As long as systemic financial institutions are allowed to exist in their current shape, taxpayers will remain exposed to paying for the follies of a runaway financial industry."....

the next crash is going to be worse I think.
Most financial assets are overvalued and too much liquidity is the cause.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: All of a Sludden on April 16, 2014, 05:37:03 PM
Seán FitzPatrick not guilty on all counts in Anglo trial.


http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/0416/609310-anglo-irish-bank-trial/
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: orangeman on April 16, 2014, 05:38:30 PM
Quote from: All of a Sludden on April 16, 2014, 05:37:03 PM
Seán FitzPatrick not guilty on all counts in Anglo trial.


http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/0416/609310-anglo-irish-bank-trial/


It wouldn't fit if you were the cynical type.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: armaghniac on April 16, 2014, 06:16:58 PM
A jury found that Mr FitzPatrick's behaviour had not been illegal

The point here is not that Fitzpatrick was not at fault, but that the law was inadequate. No bank should allowed lend money to buy its own shares, especially a large part of its own shares.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: supersarsfields on April 16, 2014, 06:48:05 PM
I don't think it's a case that the court ruled that the bank did nothing illegal, just that Seanie wasn't involved in the alledged share support. The jury could still find McAteer & Whelan guilty of share support. I'd imagine we'll hear more on those tomorrow.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: johnneycool on April 17, 2014, 09:12:31 AM
Quote from: supersarsfields on April 16, 2014, 06:48:05 PM
I don't think it's a case that the court ruled that the bank did nothing illegal, just that Seanie wasn't involved in the alledged share support. The jury could still find McAteer & Whelan guilty of share support. I'd imagine we'll hear more on those tomorrow.

Maybe one of those two will take a fall, but its hard to believe that the chairman of the bank didn't know about the loans to prop up the share price and at least give his tacit approval.

The irish people will be taken for a ride yet again by the ruling classes.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: supersarsfields on April 17, 2014, 09:23:57 AM
I wouldn't disagree with that, ignorance is no protection from the law. But it was clear during the trial Seanie was the least involved out of the three.

Wonder will we get the verdicts on the other two today.

Edit

Guilty on the Maple 10 but not guilty on The Quinn Loans. I'd be interested to hear what the difference was in relation to Share support?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: supersarsfields on April 17, 2014, 03:46:08 PM
Guilty on the Maple 10 but not guilty on The Quinn Loans. I'd be interested to hear what the difference was in relation to Share support?

(Re-posted as edit doesn't update)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: orangeman on April 17, 2014, 04:22:19 PM
Quote from: supersarsfields on April 17, 2014, 03:46:08 PM
Guilty on the Maple 10 but not guilty on The Quinn Loans. I'd be interested to hear what the difference was in relation to Share support?(Re-posted as edit doesn't update)


Interesting alright.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Franko on April 18, 2014, 12:15:00 AM
Quote from: orangeman on April 17, 2014, 04:22:19 PM
Quote from: supersarsfields on April 17, 2014, 03:46:08 PM
Guilty on the Maple 10 but not guilty on The Quinn Loans. I'd be interested to hear what the difference was in relation to Share support?(Re-posted as edit doesn't update)


Interesting alright.

The cynic in me would say a few billion euro in lost funds to the lads in Leinster house.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: armaghniac on April 18, 2014, 12:32:04 AM
Quote from: supersarsfields on April 17, 2014, 03:46:08 PM
Guilty on the Maple 10 but not guilty on The Quinn Loans. I'd be interested to hear what the difference was in relation to Share support?

(Re-posted as edit doesn't update)

The difference was that the Maple 10 only had to pay back 25% of the loan if the shares went bellyup, unlike the Quinn loans, so it was not a normal transaction.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: supersarsfields on April 18, 2014, 07:06:21 AM
The charge was for share support, IE what the loans were used for. Both sets of loans were to prevent the share price dropping.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on April 18, 2014, 08:00:32 AM
Quote from: supersarsfields on April 18, 2014, 07:06:21 AM
The charge was for share support, IE what the loans were used for. Both sets of loans were to prevent the share price dropping.

My guess is that effectively Anglo already owned the Quinn Group by then, thus they owned the problem. They simply restructured their own exposure to Sean Quinn's gamble.

The Maple 10 however were outsiders enticed to help by the offer of the unusually low recourse arrangement, as pointed out by Armaniac above.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: supersarsfields on April 18, 2014, 08:12:27 AM
But surely prior to the loans Anglo had no ownership of the Quinn Group. Anglo only received ownership of the QG after the loans had been put through. (Or at least this is my understanding) The problem prior to that was with SQ and the Broker houses.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on April 18, 2014, 08:22:43 AM
Quote from: supersarsfields on April 18, 2014, 08:12:27 AM
But surely prior to the loans Anglo had no ownership of the Quinn Group. Anglo only received ownership of the QG after the loans had been put through. (Or at least this is my understanding) The problem prior to that was with SQ and the Broker houses.

I can see an argument for that, but then there is that letter sent by McCaffrey apparently on behalf of SQ, when the margin calls started.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: supersarsfields on April 18, 2014, 08:31:47 AM
My timeline is a bit hazy, when was that letter issued? I thought it was after some of the loans had been extended? But in any regards wasn't that in relation to receiving the loans for the margin calls, which would still leave it open to Share support.

I'd imagine the Quinns would have wanted  guilty on all counts charge. But failing that, they definitely didn't want a not guilty verdict for the maple 10. I would say they will now focus on trying to proving the Quinn transactions were the same as the maple 10.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: armaghniac on April 18, 2014, 10:58:36 AM
Quote from: muppet on April 18, 2014, 08:00:32 AM
My guess is that effectively Anglo already owned the Quinn Group by then, thus they owned the problem. They simply restructured their own exposure to Sean Quinn's gamble.

The Maple 10 however were outsiders enticed to help by the offer of the unusually low recourse arrangement, as pointed out by Armaniac above.

Whatever the exact extent of ownership of Quinn at that point, Quinn himself initiated his dealings with Anglo in a way that was against their wishes, the subsequent loans were a continuation of this process. The Maple 10 were called by Anglo and offered an enticing deal to support the share price, which is much more clear and direct.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: supersarsfields on April 18, 2014, 11:11:44 AM
Sean Quinn initiated the CFD deals with Anglo. The loans were to the Quinn Children in the same way as the Maple 10 (Bar the recourse). While most people are throwing them in together, I would have thought a court would have to look at them as seperate entities. Maybe not, maybe there's something in the law that ties them together. But I haven't heard anything in that regard?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on April 18, 2014, 02:59:20 PM
Quote from: supersarsfields on April 18, 2014, 11:11:44 AM
Sean Quinn initiated the CFD deals with Anglo. The loans were to the Quinn Children in the same way as the Maple 10 (Bar the recourse). While most people are throwing them in together, I would have thought a court would have to look at them as seperate entities. Maybe not, maybe there's something in the law that ties them together. But I haven't heard anything in that regard?

Liam McCaffrey's letter was dated the 18th March.

".....'I can confirm that as additional comfort in relation to the security on this facility the Quinn family are prepared to support their personal guarantees by giving Anglo Irish Bank Corporation plc physical custody of their shares in Quinn Group ROI Ltd,' said McCaffrey in the letter to the bank....."

The Maple 10 transaction was completed on the 14th July.

While the Quinn children can probably dispute the validity of that letter, it seems to me that Anglo can argue that they believed it was in good faith.

Thus the difference is that Anglo can probably argue that the Quinn's transaction was normal business (of restructuring etc.) while the court obviously didn't accept that the Maple 10 was normal bank business.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: supersarsfields on April 18, 2014, 03:06:53 PM
Yeah your possibly right  Muppet, to be honest I don't know enough about the in's and outs of what would be classed normal business for banks. I wonder will the other cases go ahead now this year or will they be held of. I think they had 2015 in mind, but that was when they were expecting this one to run all year. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on April 23, 2014, 06:06:23 PM
http://www.rte.ie/blogs/business/2014/04/15/bouchers-veto-is-a-blow-to-states-debt-plan/ (http://www.rte.ie/blogs/business/2014/04/15/bouchers-veto-is-a-blow-to-states-debt-plan/)

Boucher's veto is a blow to State's debt plan

By Business Editor David Murphy

Bank of Ireland's CEO Richie Boucher has waved two fingers at the Government's efforts to resolve the personal debt crisis.

Last week Mr Boucher told the Oireachtas Finance Committee his bank would veto any insolvency deal involving a write-down of mortgage borrowings owed by an owner occupier.

It means that one of the two largest banks in the country has dealt an enormous blow to the agency set up by the State to handle the personal debt headache.


Politicians have not forgotten that it was the taxpayer who rescued Bank of Ireland with a €4.8 billion bailout during the acute phase of the banking meltdown.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: lynchbhoy on April 23, 2014, 06:23:48 PM
He and the bank are cheeky fcukers

However the shareholders prob will back him on this so he won't get the sack!

The gov should tax the fcuk out of the bank
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on April 23, 2014, 07:56:09 PM
Quote from: lynchbhoy on April 23, 2014, 06:23:48 PM
He and the bank are cheeky fcukers

However the shareholders prob will back him on this so he won't get the sack!

The gov should tax the fcuk out of the bank

Of course they will back him. He is looking after them and his management, and no one else.

It shows the stupidity of a Government putting nearly €5b of taxpayer's money into a 'systemic' bank that was worth €612m the day before, while now that it is making money, it has no intention of honouring any 'systemic' commitments that this, or any, Government may have.

But then this particular bank has form in showing contempt in its dealing with our Governments:

http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/investigation-exposes-bank-of-ireland-bonus-payments-495877.html (http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/investigation-exposes-bank-of-ireland-bonus-payments-495877.html)

An investigation by the Department of Finance into bonuses paid to executives at Bank of Ireland has found that the bank misled the State and the taxpayer.

It has emerged Bank of Ireland paid €4.3m in bonuses to staff since the introduction of the bank guarantee in 2008.
Another €600,000 will be paid in bonuses this year; another €200,000 in 2012.

The bank also said that €11m may have to be paid to 250 workers this year under certain bonus categories.

Bank of Ireland is now to pay €2m by way of compensation to the Exchequer for providing "misleading" information.

The investigation was launched last December when it emerged bonuses had been paid to senior executives at the bank, despite the fact that management had told the Finance Minister Brian Lenihan otherwise.

Commenting on the findings, the outgoing Finance Minister Brian Lenihan and the Department say they are dissatisfied with the approach of the bank to the investigation process and its definition of performance related bonus, which it says is inappropriate from a bank that has been bailed out by the taxpayer.


Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: magpie seanie on April 23, 2014, 09:52:11 PM
Surely we own BOI and AIB now so (1) if they're making money we get it and (2) if we want them to do something, we, the shareholders, tell them to f**king do it.

What is f**king wrong with this country. We'll make the same mistakes over and over again.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: StephenC on April 24, 2014, 02:00:52 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on April 23, 2014, 09:52:11 PM
Surely we own BOI and AIB now so (1) if they're making money we get it and (2) if we want them to do something, we, the shareholders, tell them to f**king do it.

What is f**king wrong with this country. We'll make the same mistakes over and over again.

And should the same logic be applied to teachers, doctors etc? We are the shareholders in the education sector so let's just tell them to f**king get on with the new JC syllabus?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: magpie seanie on April 24, 2014, 02:14:20 PM
Quote from: StephenC on April 24, 2014, 02:00:52 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on April 23, 2014, 09:52:11 PM
Surely we own BOI and AIB now so (1) if they're making money we get it and (2) if we want them to do something, we, the shareholders, tell them to f**king do it.

What is f**king wrong with this country. We'll make the same mistakes over and over again.

And should the same logic be applied to teachers, doctors etc? We are the shareholders in the education sector so let's just tell them to f**king get on with the new JC syllabus?

I don't remember teachers and doctors wrecking the economy recently.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: AZOffaly on April 24, 2014, 02:21:37 PM
Who do you think taught these hoors?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: magpie seanie on April 24, 2014, 02:36:44 PM
Quote from: AZOffaly on April 24, 2014, 02:21:37 PM
Who do you think taught these hoors?

Nobody. They were born knowing it all already.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on April 24, 2014, 03:52:53 PM
Quote from: StephenC on April 24, 2014, 02:00:52 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on April 23, 2014, 09:52:11 PM
Surely we own BOI and AIB now so (1) if they're making money we get it and (2) if we want them to do something, we, the shareholders, tell them to f**king do it.

What is f**king wrong with this country. We'll make the same mistakes over and over again.

And should the same logic be applied to teachers, doctors etc? We are the shareholders in the education sector so let's just tell them to f**king get on with the new JC syllabus?

Are you serious?

Bankers caused massive jobs losses, tax hikes, the raiding of private pensions and led to IMF boffins running the economy for 4 years.

And you compare this with changing the JC syllabus?

You weren't one of those embarrassing themselves at the recent conferences by any chance?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: armaghniac on June 06, 2014, 07:12:41 PM
An A from S&P



Research Update:
Ireland Upgraded To 'A-' On Improved DomesticProspects; Outlook Positive
Overview

The  outlook is positive, reflecting our view of at least a one-in-three possibility that we could raise our ratings on Ireland again in the next two years.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on June 06, 2014, 09:14:56 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on June 06, 2014, 07:12:41 PM
An A from S&P



Research Update:
Ireland Upgraded To 'A-' On Improved DomesticProspects; Outlook Positive
Overview

  • We have revised our 2014-2016 average real GDP growth projections forIreland upward to 2.7% from 2.0%.
  • This reflects our expectation of a continued strong external performance and a sustained recovery of the domestic economy.
  • We are therefore raising our long-term sovereign credit ratings onIreland to 'A-' from 'BBB+'. We are affirming the short-term ratings at'A-2'.

The  outlook is positive, reflecting our view of at least a one-in-three possibility that we could raise our ratings on Ireland again in the next two years.
as FF used to say before it all went arseways, a lot done, more (way more) to do
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: lynchbhoy on June 06, 2014, 10:13:34 PM
We would have ( and will) get back to the top rating whether we burned the bond holders and banks or we took it up the ass and bailed the fcukers out or not

( eg Iceland)

It wasn't the country's lack of industry or money making that went belly up so we were always going to get 'back up there' relatively quickly
- ok not there yet but we will be

Some will trot out the old ' our reputation would have been shot if we had burned or didn't bail them out' etc
But these money men don't care for reputations etc once there's a buck to be made- that's commerce

But we erred on the side of caution and the banks /politicians/cronies suited themselves and screwed the ordinary folk when there was no need to!

Yep, I'm still pssed off over it!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: armaghniac on June 06, 2014, 10:27:26 PM
Quote from: seafoid on June 06, 2014, 09:14:56 PM
as FF used to say before it all went arseways, a lot done, more (way more) to do

Ireland is now towards the top end of Eurozone growth, if the Eurozone generally picked up a bit then things might really improve. The main problem is that with an A rating and some growth it is rather tricky to go to the EU and demand they pay off a whack of our bank debt, we no longer look needy. Our main hope is some general measures for the Eurozone which can't be denied us.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on June 10, 2014, 09:09:00 PM
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100726168 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/100726168)

Canada's Housing Market: The Next Big Short?
Matt Clinch    | @mattclinch81
Friday, 10 May 2013 | 1:38 AM ET
CNBC.com
   
Steve Eisman, the hedge fund manager who famously bet against mortgages in the United States in the run up to the 2008 financial crash, has recommended investors now bet against Canada's mortgage lenders and banks.

Eisman, founder and portfolio manager of hedge fund Emrys Partners, rose to prominence with subprime mortgage bets that were chronicled by Michael Lewis in the book "Big Short".

Eisman is wary of Canadian mortgage originator Home Capital Group in particular, according to Reuters. And investors may have taken his advice; the stock is down 4 percent since Wednesday.

"If housing rolls over, this company is going to have serious problems," Reuters cited him as saying at the Sohn Investment Conference. The news agency said he added that the housing market is troubled and estimated the domestic funding gap for the six big Canadian banks at roughly $427 billion.

House prices in Canada have doubled in the last ten years, according to the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index. The surge in the index, which measures price changes for repeat sales of single-family homes, has stuttered this year falling back by 0.09 percent in what some believe is a cooling off period.

This year's figures show a long slow winter of decline following the government's move to tighten mortgage lending rules. In July 2012, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty unveiled major changes to the limits of what state-owned Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) is allowed to insure.

Last year, outgoing governor of the Bank of Canada Mark Carney added his weight to the debate by warning on numerous occasions of elevated household debt levels which represented a significant threat to the financial system.

Fears remain that Canadians aren't listening as the ratio of credit market debt (such as mortgages) to disposable income continues to rise, according to Statistics Canada, reaching 165.0 percent in the last quarter, compared with 164.7 percent in the previous.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on June 10, 2014, 09:22:58 PM
Again from Canada, the complete opposite argument:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/blogs/balance-sheet/canada-housing-bubble-fears-due-wildly-inaccurate-estimates-183545158.html (https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/blogs/balance-sheet/canada-housing-bubble-fears-due-wildly-inaccurate-estimates-183545158.html)

With all of the talk about a housing bubble in Canada, homeowners may find comfort in a new report suggesting the market could actually be undervalued.

That's right, undervalued.

Maybe you don't have to worry about trying to sell at the top of the market after all. For buyers, now might not be the worst time to get in.

At least, that's the takeaway from housing industry economist Will Dunning who dispels the housing bubble myth and takes aim at doomsayers who believe we're all living under overpriced roofs.


Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: magpie seanie on June 10, 2014, 09:46:31 PM
Quote from: lynchbhoy on June 06, 2014, 10:13:34 PM
We would have ( and will) get back to the top rating whether we burned the bond holders and banks or we took it up the ass and bailed the fcukers out or not

( eg Iceland)

It wasn't the country's lack of industry or money making that went belly up so we were always going to get 'back up there' relatively quickly
- ok not there yet but we will be

Some will trot out the old ' our reputation would have been shot if we had burned or didn't bail them out' etc
But these money men don't care for reputations etc once there's a buck to be made- that's commerce

But we erred on the side of caution and the banks /politicians/cronies suited themselves and screwed the ordinary folk when there was no need to!

Yep, I'm still pssed off over it!

I won't ever get over it. It was treason, pure and simple. Calling it "economic treason" didn't do it justice.

Good ould Inda going to get a reward for it anyway and probably Gilmore too.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on June 10, 2014, 09:57:24 PM
We blew any leverage we had with the guarantee. And, worse again, any chance Lenihan & co had of negotiating a decent deal with the IMF, went when Honohan went public.

Morgan Kelly described it as follows: (http://www.irishtimes.com/debate/ireland-s-future-depends-on-breaking-free-from-bailout-1.565236 (http://www.irishtimes.com/debate/ireland-s-future-depends-on-breaking-free-from-bailout-1.565236))

At this stage, with Lenihan looking set to exploit his strong negotiating position to seek a bailout of the banks only, Honohan intervened. As well as being Ireland's chief economic adviser, he also plays for the opposing team as a member of the council of the European Central Bank, whose decisions he is bound to carry out. In Frankfurt for the monthly meeting of the ECB on November 18th, Honohan announced on RTÉ Radio 1's Morning Ireland that Ireland would need a bailout of "tens of billions".

Rarely has a finance minister been so deftly sliced off at the ankles by his central bank governor.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Billys Boots on June 11, 2014, 09:19:15 AM
Was reading an article yesterday where a French 'people's audit' report has declared that national debt is invalid and that banking should revert to being a state function - anyone else seen it?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on June 11, 2014, 03:24:55 PM
Quote from: Billys Boots on June 11, 2014, 09:19:15 AM
Was reading an article yesterday where a French 'people's audit' report has declared that national debt is invalid and that banking should revert to being a state function - anyone else seen it?

I think a lot of it is owned by pension funds ..
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jun/09/french-public-debt-audit-illegitimate-working-class-internationalim
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: johnneycool on June 11, 2014, 04:30:25 PM
Quote from: seafoid on June 11, 2014, 03:24:55 PM
Quote from: Billys Boots on June 11, 2014, 09:19:15 AM
Was reading an article yesterday where a French 'people's audit' report has declared that national debt is invalid and that banking should revert to being a state function - anyone else seen it?

I think a lot of it is owned by pension funds ..
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jun/09/french-public-debt-audit-illegitimate-working-class-internationalim

The next big financial scandal probably less than a decade away!
Title: Bank run in Bulgaria
Post by: muppet on June 26, 2014, 07:29:54 PM
http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/06/22/bulgaria-corpbank-idINL6N0P30TA20140622 (http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/06/22/bulgaria-corpbank-idINL6N0P30TA20140622)

SOFIA, June 22 (Reuters) - Bulgaria is ready to rescue Corporate Commercial Bank (Corpbank) by injecting capital and enforcing losses on shareholders, the central bank said on Sunday, after a run on the country's No. 4 lender prompted the central bank to take it over on Friday.

The central bank said the government was also prepared to inject capital into a subsidiary that Sofia-listed Corpbank recently bought from France's Credit Agricole and which has been taken over by the central bank as well.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on June 27, 2014, 03:54:30 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/0625/626436-banking-inquiry/

"The banking inquiry has been told that, on legal advice, it will not be able to discuss the Cabinet meeting during which the bank guarantee was discussed due to Cabinet confidentiality."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/northern_ireland/7650041.stm

081003 Brian Cowen, arriving at a conference in Trinity College, Dublin yesterday: "We're in extraordinary economic circumstances. We face stark choices. If we do not make the right ones, it will have catastrophic consequences."

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/70b38194-f568-11e3-91a8-00144feabdc0.html
"If the €2bn of cuts are implemented in the next budget, due in October, the total adjustment the country will have made since 2008 as it seeks to restore its fiscal health will come to €32bn."


And what about big Tony ?

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/sectors/financial-services/anthony-o-reilly-fails-in-bid-to-get-more-time-to-repay-debt-1.1847650
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on July 26, 2014, 06:01:09 PM
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/argentina-facing-default-on-1-5b-debt-1.2718825 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/argentina-facing-default-on-1-5b-debt-1.2718825)

Argentina about to default AGAIN!

Looking at them, and obviously with the benefit of hindsight, we should have dug in to negotiate a better deal. But burning the bondholders entirely might have been disastrous.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on July 31, 2014, 02:03:53 PM
I think there's a reasonable risk of the markets blowing up soon

http://www.treasury.gov/initiatives/ofr/research/Documents/OFR_AMFS_FINAL.pdf

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/stein20140228a.htm
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: foxcommander on July 31, 2014, 02:25:22 PM
The anglo boys get 240 hours of community service for what they did. 6 weeks of picking up dog poo for helping bankrupt a country. Beyond belief.
Their heads should be on pikes.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/0731/634154-anglo-irish-bank/
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: johnneycool on July 31, 2014, 02:57:23 PM
Quote from: foxcommander on July 31, 2014, 02:25:22 PM
The anglo boys get 240 hours of community service for what they did. 6 weeks of picking up dog poo for helping bankrupt a country. Beyond belief.
Their heads should be on pikes.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/0731/634154-anglo-irish-bank/

The financial regulator at the time should be the first up the gallows steps if there's going to be any lynchings.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: foxcommander on July 31, 2014, 03:05:24 PM
Quote from: johnneycool on July 31, 2014, 02:57:23 PM
Quote from: foxcommander on July 31, 2014, 02:25:22 PM
The anglo boys get 240 hours of community service for what they did. 6 weeks of picking up dog poo for helping bankrupt a country. Beyond belief.
Their heads should be on pikes.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/0731/634154-anglo-irish-bank/

The financial regulator at the time should be the first up the gallows steps if there's going to be any lynchings.

I'm not too worried about the order they'd be executed... ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: foxcommander on July 31, 2014, 03:13:00 PM
Interestingly there is a case in the US where Deloitte & Touche are being sued for 7.6 BILLION for their negligence in a mortgage fraud scheme.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/09/27/deloitte-sued-mortgage-fraud_n_982804.html

I've always thought that since the state was paying for external audit services and they failed to pick up on Anglo should they be
sued as well. They got a pretty nice sums for their "services". Haven't heard of any heads rolling.
Suing them for a few billion each would help to ease the taxpayers burden.

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/were-the-bank-auditors-conflicted-26652955.html
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on July 31, 2014, 04:10:40 PM
Quote from: foxcommander on July 31, 2014, 03:13:00 PM
Interestingly there is a case in the US where Deloitte & Touche are being sued for 7.6 BILLION for their negligence in a mortgage fraud scheme.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/09/27/deloitte-sued-mortgage-fraud_n_982804.html

I've always thought that since the state was paying for external audit services and they failed to pick up on Anglo should they be
sued as well. They got a pretty nice sums for their "services". Haven't heard of any heads rolling.
Suing them for a few billion each would help to ease the taxpayers burden.

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/were-the-bank-auditors-conflicted-26652955.html

Agreed, between auditors, regulators & rating agencies you'd wonder why we bother paying these people at all.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: foxcommander on July 31, 2014, 04:54:12 PM
Quote from: muppet on July 31, 2014, 04:10:40 PM

Agreed, between auditors, regulators & rating agencies you'd wonder why we bother paying these people at all.

Seems like Deloitte settled this case before it went to court as to hide the amount they actually settled for. So if they were looking for 7.6 billion they at least must have paid half? 3 odd billion is better than nothing right?

Why isn't the state chasing up on this?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-03/deloitte-touche-settles-suits-over-taylor-bean-collapse.html
http://economia.icaew.com/news/october-2013/deloitte-settles-over-taylor-bean
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: TabClear on August 01, 2014, 07:07:12 AM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-28479060

Ulster Bank posting stronger results than expected and looking like its going to be sold. Looks like the RBS has a firm plan in this with the sale of the £1bn loan portfolio last week.

Hard to know if its good or bad news for those people/comapnies with big exposures to UB.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: armaghniac on August 01, 2014, 12:28:52 PM
Quote from: TabClear on August 01, 2014, 07:07:12 AM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-28479060

Ulster Bank posting stronger results than expected and looking like its going to be sold. Looks like the RBS has a firm plan in this with the sale of the £1bn loan portfolio last week.

Hard to know if its good or bad news for those people/comapnies with big exposures to UB.

By all accounts the plan is to partition the Ulster Bank. What is the policy of SF on such things?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on August 07, 2014, 10:55:50 PM
Things have been really tight down here:

(http://c3.thejournal.ie/media/2013/05/photo-99-368x500.jpg)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Rossfan on August 08, 2014, 11:10:39 AM
When did we go back to the £ ??
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on August 19, 2014, 06:58:26 PM
(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-vu9nRVPPCXM/Tw-4SE1s8iI/AAAAAAAAVcE/UGpu0H2QVas/s1600/bailout%2Bcartoon%2B2.jpg)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on August 19, 2014, 07:14:12 PM
German bond yields are below 1%. The EZ is heading for deflation. Very bad news for debt dynamics and the prospects of government debt being paid off in full. Inflation reduces the real value of debt. Deflation increases it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on August 19, 2014, 09:15:32 PM
Quote from: seafoid on August 19, 2014, 07:14:12 PM
German bond yields are below 1%. The EZ is heading for deflation. Very bad news for debt dynamics and the prospects of government debt being paid off in full. Inflation reduces the real value of debt. Deflation increases it.

QE on the way in the EZ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: magpie seanie on August 27, 2014, 12:56:42 PM
I see where the head of the crowd of fcukers behind us having to pay for a basic human right is in a wee bit of bother. Any time you see Bernard Tapie's name mentioned you'd have to wonder! Nice to see us being dictated to by such fine upstanding ethical people.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on August 27, 2014, 01:31:42 PM
Quote from: muppet on August 19, 2014, 09:15:32 PM
Quote from: seafoid on August 19, 2014, 07:14:12 PM
German bond yields are below 1%. The EZ is heading for deflation. Very bad news for debt dynamics and the prospects of government debt being paid off in full. Inflation reduces the real value of debt. Deflation increases it.

QE on the way in the EZ?
I am not sure QE works against deflation. AFAIK it just rises asset prices but they are v high already . Inflation and debt forgiveness might help but there is a lot of opposition from germany and undercapitalised german banks stuffed with sov bonds. It could get very messy again.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: armaghniac on August 27, 2014, 01:38:28 PM
Quote from: seafoid on August 27, 2014, 01:31:42 PM
I am not sure QE works against deflation. AFAIK it just rises asset prices but they are v high already . Inflation and debt forgiveness might help but there is a lot of opposition from germany and undercapitalised german banks stuffed with sov bonds. It could get very messy again.

A plan is needed to direct resources into labour intensive consumption not bidding up assets. My idea was to give everyone in the Eurozone a €1000 holiday voucher, even given free choice in the matter most people would have chosen to spend this in places like Portugal or Cyprus with plenty of spare capacity.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on August 27, 2014, 03:19:37 PM
Quote from: seafoid on August 27, 2014, 01:31:42 PM
Quote from: muppet on August 19, 2014, 09:15:32 PM
Quote from: seafoid on August 19, 2014, 07:14:12 PM
German bond yields are below 1%. The EZ is heading for deflation. Very bad news for debt dynamics and the prospects of government debt being paid off in full. Inflation reduces the real value of debt. Deflation increases it.

QE on the way in the EZ?
I am not sure QE works against deflation. AFAIK it just rises asset prices but they are v high already . Inflation and debt forgiveness might help but there is a lot of opposition from germany and undercapitalised german banks stuffed with sov bonds. It could get very messy again.

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-nHCNN5zZVrE/T6PV5vqOedI/AAAAAAAAFIk/ntBrLqVhUHg/s1600/CurrencyWarsBook.jpg)

I finished the above recently. Amazing stuff. It doesn't forecast a dollar crisis so much as say it is absolutely inevitable. It forecast 4 possible outcomes after such a crisis, the most likely of which is the least desirable - chaos.

The book discusses the Tea Party's success in preventing Obama raise Government spending a few years ago and thus left him with the only alternative to create growth. QE.

The book then tracks the effects of that QE. It agrees with you and says QE had only a small effect on deflation - IN THE US -. However a nasty side effect was to export inflation to other currencies. The author argued that this was the tipping point that triggered the so-called Spring Tide revolutions, the civil war in Syria and following on from that I guess you could add the rise of ISIS.

QE in the Euro zone might not have quite as much impact, but there could be some unintended consequences elsewhere.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on August 27, 2014, 03:34:51 PM
Quote from: muppet on August 27, 2014, 03:19:37 PM
Quote from: seafoid on August 27, 2014, 01:31:42 PM
Quote from: muppet on August 19, 2014, 09:15:32 PM
Quote from: seafoid on August 19, 2014, 07:14:12 PM
German bond yields are below 1%. The EZ is heading for deflation. Very bad news for debt dynamics and the prospects of government debt being paid off in full. Inflation reduces the real value of debt. Deflation increases it.

QE on the way in the EZ?
I am not sure QE works against deflation. AFAIK it just rises asset prices but they are v high already . Inflation and debt forgiveness might help but there is a lot of opposition from germany and undercapitalised german banks stuffed with sov bonds. It could get very messy again.

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-nHCNN5zZVrE/T6PV5vqOedI/AAAAAAAAFIk/ntBrLqVhUHg/s1600/CurrencyWarsBook.jpg)

I finished the above recently. Amazing stuff. It doesn't forecast a dollar crisis so much as say it is absolutely inevitable. It forecast 4 possible outcomes after such a crisis, the most likely of which is the least desirable - chaos.

The book discusses the Tea Party's success in preventing Obama raise Government spending a few years ago and thus left him with the only alternative to create growth. QE.

The book then tracks the effects of that QE. It agrees with you and says QE had only a small effect on deflation - IN THE US -. However a nasty side effect was to export inflation to other currencies. The author argued that this was the tipping point that triggered the so-called Spring Tide revolutions, the civil war in Syria and following on from that I guess you could add the rise of ISIS.

QE in the Euro zone might not have quite as much impact, but there could be some unintended consequences elsewhere.
When all the economies are shaky some will try to gain an advantage by devaluing or exporting more but what might work for one can't work for all. It is the same with deleveraging.  The overall context is still very poor and even in the US wages are not rising at a sufficient level to get the economy motoring on its own steam again.

A lot of assets are probably overvalued and in any case they can't rise much further - eg Irish bonds are at a yield of 2% which is nuts 

There was a notable quote in the FT a while ago " It is easier to forecast the long-term than the short. And the long-term does not look good."



Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: armaghniac on September 18, 2014, 03:15:25 PM
Light at the end of the tunnel?
The economy grew by 1.5pc between April and June and 7.7pc year-on-year new figures show.

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/economy-will-grow-by-45pc-this-year-michael-noonan-30596909.html
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on September 19, 2014, 12:56:00 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on September 18, 2014, 03:15:25 PM
Light at the end of the tunnel?
The economy grew by 1.5pc between April and June and 7.7pc year-on-year new figures show.

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/economy-will-grow-by-45pc-this-year-michael-noonan-30596909.html
It is good news but what is driving it ? The wider picture for european growth remains fragile.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: armaghniac on September 19, 2014, 01:09:24 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 19, 2014, 12:56:00 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on September 18, 2014, 03:15:25 PM
Light at the end of the tunnel?
The economy grew by 1.5pc between April and June and 7.7pc year-on-year new figures show.

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/economy-will-grow-by-45pc-this-year-michael-noonan-30596909.html
It is good news but what is driving it ? The wider picture for european growth remains fragile.

Ireland does a lot of business with UK/USA, who are printing money, yet Sterling is appreciating.
The good thing is that the rest of Europe will improve eventually and this will help things carry on.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Hardy on September 22, 2014, 02:25:14 PM
FT editorial today:


Ireland shows struggling Europe the way ahead
Strong growth demonstrates that tough choices do pay off

The world has watched transfixed as Scotland wrestled with its destiny. But now that its future is settled, it is Scotland's Celtic neighbour Ireland that should be drawing attention.

It was revealed last week that Ireland enjoyed astonishing growth in the second quarter. At an annualised rate of 7.7 per cent, this is a pace unseen since the heady days of the early 2000s. After becoming the first country to exit its EU bailout, it is now forecast to continue growing strongly. As countries such as France and Italy stagnate, while bickering about long overdue reforms, they should take note of exactly how the Irish have done this.

In some ways Ireland has been fortunate. Its two biggest trading partners, the US and Britain, are both growing strongly. Its low bond yields owe more to the decisive actions of Mario Draghi, European Central Bank president, than to any decisions made in Dublin.

But this is not just the luck of the Irish. For seven years its government and long-suffering people have taken the toughest of choices. The costs of a bloated public sector were reduced with swingeing wage cuts and slashing the payroll. Private sector wages have fallen by more than 2 per cent annually in the past four years, restoring competitiveness to industry. Above all, the government recognised the serious risk played by its shattered banking system and took steps to rebuild it. Through its "bad bank", the National Asset Management Agency, it made banks come clean about their losses. By forcibly swapping toxic assets for safer government debt, it cleared the way for lending to start again.

These early glimmers of optimism should not be mistaken for a return to the carefree days of easy growth. Ireland is not yet out of the woods. At about 120 per cent of gross domestic product, its public debt is set to remain at dangerous levels for many years. Private debt is even worse; despite the work of Nama, more than 10 per cent of bank loans are classified as non-performing. Ireland still has to fix an unbalanced housing market, where empty "ghost estates" coexist with a serious shortage of property in Dublin.

The hangover from years of heedless expansion has left Ireland with no choice but to seek growth in other ways rather than starting the party all over again. Whereas before the crisis personal consumption grew at more than 6 per cent a year, it will now play little role in driving the economy. Continual pay cuts and double-digit unemployment have left the shell-shocked Irish shopper unwilling to spend.

Instead, Ireland must rely on exports and on attracting overseas investment. Wage restraint has restored competitiveness, which alongside a flexible English-speaking labour force, make it a choice destination for multinational companies such as Pfizer, Dell and Apple. As a result, Ireland has a healthy current account surplus and investment growth of 15 per cent per year.

The European economy remains in a depressed state. For struggling eurozone nations it must be tempting to place their hopes in more effective action at an EU level. But recent efforts to pep up demand look insufficient. And for small, open economies such as Ireland external conditions are far less important than steps taken at home.

These are early days for Ireland's recovery. Few countries soared as high or crashed as hard. It remains a long way from its previous peak. Yet it provides growing evidence of how countries that shape up after a crisis can recover strongly despite an unfavourable international outlook. Others should learn from its example.

- (Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2014)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Billys Boots on September 22, 2014, 02:37:10 PM
Every voter should be made read that every day before they switch on their radio/tv or pick up a 'news'-paper.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: bcarrier on September 24, 2014, 12:20:53 PM
RTE misleading with "15th annual increase" thing. Its the 15th month in a row showing an annual increase. 

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/0924/645942-house-prices/
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: magpie seanie on September 24, 2014, 02:25:51 PM
Quote from: Billys Boots on September 22, 2014, 02:37:10 PM
Every voter should be made read that every day before they switch on their radio/tv or pick up a 'news'-paper.

What do you mean by that? 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Hardy on September 24, 2014, 04:20:52 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on September 24, 2014, 12:20:53 PM
RTE misleading with "15th annual increase" thing. Its the 15th month in a row showing an annual increase. 

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/0924/645942-house-prices/ (http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/0924/645942-house-prices/)

Not a surprise. RTE journalists often boast about how they can't count. Even their financial journalists seem to be barely numerate. Though I do notice that for the last few political poll results, they haven't been reporting "Independents up 5 percent" when their share goes from 20% to 25%. Maybe they've all been given a course in primary school sums.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on October 28, 2014, 05:59:53 PM
As the US carefully ends QE3 it is worth having a look at how these policies have affected the markets.

Here is a look at the S&P 500 index versus Quantative Easing by the Fed:

https://www.tradingview.com/v/cFnIIKNf/ (https://www.tradingview.com/v/cFnIIKNf/)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on October 28, 2014, 08:09:59 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 28, 2014, 05:59:53 PM
As the US carefully ends QE3 it is worth having a look at how these policies have affected the markets.

Here is a look at the S&P 500 index versus Quantative Easing by the Fed:

https://www.tradingview.com/v/cFnIIKNf/ (https://www.tradingview.com/v/cFnIIKNf/)
Muppet

It's not really clear yet that the Fed can wean the markets off QE3

The plan was to raise interest rates but the markets went into a spasm last week over this and the various central banks had to come out and reassure them that interest rates would be staying low for a good while more.

A lot of equities are way overvalued .

The standard measure is price to earnings ratio but some academics have developed other arguably better measures and one of these is the Shiller Price to earnings ratio or CAPE and this shows basically a zero return for US equities over the next 10 years

The problem with Price to earning ratio is that it assumes the current price is logical and this may not always be valid.

there is a chart here showing the 2 compared

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/651be648-0394-11e4-8ae4-00144feab7de.htmlk 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price%E2%80%93earnings_ratio
The price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E ratio, is an equity valuation multiple. It is defined as market price per share divided by annual earnings per share.[2]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclically_adjusted_price-to-earnings_ratio

The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, commonly known as CAPE,[1] Shiller P/E, or P/E 10 ratio,[2] is a valuation measure usually applied to the US S&P 500 equity market. It is defined as price divided by the average of ten years of earnings (Moving average), adjusted for inflation.[3] As such, it is principally used to assess likely future returns from equities over timescales of 10 to 20 years, with higher than average CAPE values implying lower than average long-term annual average returns. It is not intended as an indicator of impending market crashes, although high CAPE values have been associated with such events.[4]
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Mike Sheehy on October 28, 2014, 08:26:24 PM
Quote from: seafoid on October 28, 2014, 08:09:59 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 28, 2014, 05:59:53 PM
As the US carefully ends QE3 it is worth having a look at how these policies have affected the markets.

Here is a look at the S&P 500 index versus Quantative Easing by the Fed:

https://www.tradingview.com/v/cFnIIKNf/ (https://www.tradingview.com/v/cFnIIKNf/)
Muppet

It's not really clear yet that the Fed can wean the markets off QE3

The plan was to raise interest rates but the markets went into a spasm last week over this and the various central banks had to come out and reassure them that interest rates would be staying low for a good while more.

A lot of equities are way overvalued .

The standard measure is price to earnings ratio but some academics have developed other arguably better measures and one of these is the Shiller Price to earnings ratio or CAPE and this shows basically a zero return for US equities over the next 10 years

The problem with Price to earning ratio is that it assumes the current price is logical and this may not always be valid.

there is a chart here showing the 2 compared

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/651be648-0394-11e4-8ae4-00144feab7de.htmlk 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price%E2%80%93earnings_ratio
The price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E ratio, is an equity valuation multiple. It is defined as market price per share divided by annual earnings per share.[2]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclically_adjusted_price-to-earnings_ratio

The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, commonly known as CAPE,[1] Shiller P/E, or P/E 10 ratio,[2] is a valuation measure usually applied to the US S&P 500 equity market. It is defined as price divided by the average of ten years of earnings (Moving average), adjusted for inflation.[3] As such, it is principally used to assess likely future returns from equities over timescales of 10 to 20 years, with higher than average CAPE values implying lower than average long-term annual average returns. It is not intended as an indicator of impending market crashes, although high CAPE values have been associated with such events.[4]

Thanks for the helpful Wikipedia links. Plebs like us always like to be guided by professionals such as yourself.

btw, what exactly is your line of work Seafoid ? No need for any revealing details. "Financial services" or suchlike will do.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on October 28, 2014, 08:37:00 PM
Quote from: Mike Sheehy on October 28, 2014, 08:26:24 PM
Quote from: seafoid on October 28, 2014, 08:09:59 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 28, 2014, 05:59:53 PM
As the US carefully ends QE3 it is worth having a look at how these policies have affected the markets.

Here is a look at the S&P 500 index versus Quantative Easing by the Fed:

https://www.tradingview.com/v/cFnIIKNf/ (https://www.tradingview.com/v/cFnIIKNf/)
Muppet

It's not really clear yet that the Fed can wean the markets off QE3

The plan was to raise interest rates but the markets went into a spasm last week over this and the various central banks had to come out and reassure them that interest rates would be staying low for a good while more.

A lot of equities are way overvalued .

The standard measure is price to earnings ratio but some academics have developed other arguably better measures and one of these is the Shiller Price to earnings ratio or CAPE and this shows basically a zero return for US equities over the next 10 years

The problem with Price to earning ratio is that it assumes the current price is logical and this may not always be valid.

there is a chart here showing the 2 compared

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/651be648-0394-11e4-8ae4-00144feab7de.htmlk 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price%E2%80%93earnings_ratio
The price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E ratio, is an equity valuation multiple. It is defined as market price per share divided by annual earnings per share.[2]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclically_adjusted_price-to-earnings_ratio

The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, commonly known as CAPE,[1] Shiller P/E, or P/E 10 ratio,[2] is a valuation measure usually applied to the US S&P 500 equity market. It is defined as price divided by the average of ten years of earnings (Moving average), adjusted for inflation.[3] As such, it is principally used to assess likely future returns from equities over timescales of 10 to 20 years, with higher than average CAPE values implying lower than average long-term annual average returns. It is not intended as an indicator of impending market crashes, although high CAPE values have been associated with such events.[4]

Thanks for the helpful Wikipedia links. Plebs like us always like to be guided by professionals such as yourself.

btw, what exactly is your line of work Seafoid ? No need for any revealing details. "Financial services" or suchlike will do.
I work for Hillel outreach
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Mike Sheehy on October 28, 2014, 11:36:02 PM
Quote from: seafoid on October 28, 2014, 08:37:00 PM
Quote from: Mike Sheehy on October 28, 2014, 08:26:24 PM
Quote from: seafoid on October 28, 2014, 08:09:59 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 28, 2014, 05:59:53 PM
As the US carefully ends QE3 it is worth having a look at how these policies have affected the markets.

Here is a look at the S&P 500 index versus Quantative Easing by the Fed:

https://www.tradingview.com/v/cFnIIKNf/ (https://www.tradingview.com/v/cFnIIKNf/)
Muppet

It's not really clear yet that the Fed can wean the markets off QE3

The plan was to raise interest rates but the markets went into a spasm last week over this and the various central banks had to come out and reassure them that interest rates would be staying low for a good while more.

A lot of equities are way overvalued .

The standard measure is price to earnings ratio but some academics have developed other arguably better measures and one of these is the Shiller Price to earnings ratio or CAPE and this shows basically a zero return for US equities over the next 10 years

The problem with Price to earning ratio is that it assumes the current price is logical and this may not always be valid.

there is a chart here showing the 2 compared

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/651be648-0394-11e4-8ae4-00144feab7de.htmlk 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price%E2%80%93earnings_ratio
The price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E ratio, is an equity valuation multiple. It is defined as market price per share divided by annual earnings per share.[2]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclically_adjusted_price-to-earnings_ratio

The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, commonly known as CAPE,[1] Shiller P/E, or P/E 10 ratio,[2] is a valuation measure usually applied to the US S&P 500 equity market. It is defined as price divided by the average of ten years of earnings (Moving average), adjusted for inflation.[3] As such, it is principally used to assess likely future returns from equities over timescales of 10 to 20 years, with higher than average CAPE values implying lower than average long-term annual average returns. It is not intended as an indicator of impending market crashes, although high CAPE values have been associated with such events.[4]

Thanks for the helpful Wikipedia links. Plebs like us always like to be guided by professionals such as yourself.

btw, what exactly is your line of work Seafoid ? No need for any revealing details. "Financial services" or suchlike will do.
I work for Hillel outreach

tut, tut Seafoid. This has nothing to do with jews. Why do you need to bring them into any argument that we have. Are you trying to appeal to some demographic or something ?

So, how do you square your well paid rent seeking job with your obviously socialist/Marxist politics ?

Do terms like "affluence" and "corporate interests" only kick in beyond the boundary of Ballinasloe ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on October 29, 2014, 07:14:06 AM
Quote from: Mike Sheehy on October 28, 2014, 11:36:02 PM
Quote from: seafoid on October 28, 2014, 08:37:00 PM
Quote from: Mike Sheehy on October 28, 2014, 08:26:24 PM
Quote from: seafoid on October 28, 2014, 08:09:59 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 28, 2014, 05:59:53 PM
As the US carefully ends QE3 it is worth having a look at how these policies have affected the markets.

Here is a look at the S&P 500 index versus Quantative Easing by the Fed:

https://www.tradingview.com/v/cFnIIKNf/ (https://www.tradingview.com/v/cFnIIKNf/)
Muppet

It's not really clear yet that the Fed can wean the markets off QE3

The plan was to raise interest rates but the markets went into a spasm last week over this and the various central banks had to come out and reassure them that interest rates would be staying low for a good while more.

A lot of equities are way overvalued .

The standard measure is price to earnings ratio but some academics have developed other arguably better measures and one of these is the Shiller Price to earnings ratio or CAPE and this shows basically a zero return for US equities over the next 10 years

The problem with Price to earning ratio is that it assumes the current price is logical and this may not always be valid.

there is a chart here showing the 2 compared

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/651be648-0394-11e4-8ae4-00144feab7de.htmlk 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price%E2%80%93earnings_ratio
The price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E ratio, is an equity valuation multiple. It is defined as market price per share divided by annual earnings per share.[2]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclically_adjusted_price-to-earnings_ratio

The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, commonly known as CAPE,[1] Shiller P/E, or P/E 10 ratio,[2] is a valuation measure usually applied to the US S&P 500 equity market. It is defined as price divided by the average of ten years of earnings (Moving average), adjusted for inflation.[3] As such, it is principally used to assess likely future returns from equities over timescales of 10 to 20 years, with higher than average CAPE values implying lower than average long-term annual average returns. It is not intended as an indicator of impending market crashes, although high CAPE values have been associated with such events.[4]

Thanks for the helpful Wikipedia links. Plebs like us always like to be guided by professionals such as yourself.

btw, what exactly is your line of work Seafoid ? No need for any revealing details. "Financial services" or suchlike will do.
I work for Hillel outreach

tut, tut Seafoid. This has nothing to do with jews. Why do you need to bring them into any argument that we have. Are you trying to appeal to some demographic or something ?

So, how do you square your well paid rent seeking job with your obviously socialist/Marxist politics ?

Do terms like "affluence" and "corporate interests" only kick in beyond the boundary of Ballinasloe ?

I think it's about sustainability, Mike
Where people put their money and what they get in return.

I think the financial system is unstable and that there another crash on the way.
We are just feeding a big debt bubble

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4df99d28-4590-11e4-ab10-00144feabdc0.htm

What do you think ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on October 29, 2014, 10:29:23 AM
Martin Wolf on the bank stress tests

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cb939e1a-5dc7-11e4-897f-00144feabdc0.html

"It is essential not to make too much of these stress tests and asset quality review. Yes, they are real improvements. But they do not mean that eurozone banks will now drive growth. They still have too little capital for that. More important, the eurozone lacks a credible strategy for reigniting demand. If much of the German policy elite continues to deny this is even a problem, the crisis of the eurozone must remain unresolved. That is a disaster."


AIB is a good example of his point.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Rossfan on October 29, 2014, 10:57:43 AM
Quote from: Mike Sheehy on October 28, 2014, 08:26:24 PM
btw, what exactly is your line of work Seafoid ? No need for any revealing details. "Financial services" or suchlike will do.

Sheehy seems obsessed with Seafóid..... :-[
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on October 29, 2014, 12:26:47 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on October 29, 2014, 10:57:43 AM
Quote from: Mike Sheehy on October 28, 2014, 08:26:24 PM
btw, what exactly is your line of work Seafoid ? No need for any revealing details. "Financial services" or suchlike will do.

Sheehy seems obsessed with Seafóid..... :-[
in both senses
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on October 29, 2014, 02:00:35 PM
Quote from: seafoid on October 29, 2014, 10:29:23 AM
Martin Wolf on the bank stress tests

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cb939e1a-5dc7-11e4-897f-00144feabdc0.html

"It is essential not to make too much of these stress tests and asset quality review. Yes, they are real improvements. But they do not mean that eurozone banks will now drive growth. They still have too little capital for that. More important, the eurozone lacks a credible strategy for reigniting demand. If much of the German policy elite continues to deny this is even a problem, the crisis of the eurozone must remain unresolved. That is a disaster."


AIB is a good example of his point.

It seems everyone in power thinks the only possible solution to the post-credit boom collapse, is to get the banks firing out more credit. They seem to think that the banks won't screw it up again with property (or other) bubbles and the resulting consumption will get the economies all growing again.

So who will borrow all this money?

Ordinary citizens? Not a hope in the short term. Some are underwater from the last credit bubble, others have all their disposable income servicing debt and the new high tax regime leaves very little to spare.

Small businesses? They are closing or downsizing. With the consumers cutting spending due to their debts, this sector has really struggled. Take a walk around a town like Castlebar and see how many businesses are gone under in the last few years. And remember, Ireland is further down the road to whatever recovery we get than the rest of Europe.

Large businesses? Hard to see a huge number of these expanding at this time, in anticipation of a dramatic pick up in demand that comes out of the blue. China's growth is slowing down. This is adversely affecting the world's biggest exporter, Germany, and thus pulling down growth in the whole Eurozone. Why would large businesses expand in that scenario?

The only way demand will pick up is to lower taxes or somehow reduce the private debt burden, or both. The EU/ECB/IMF/FED tackled bank debt only and by default the banks creditors. But they continue to completely ignore the debt handed out by the banks. There will be feck all recovery until this burden is tackled.

Think about the above. They want to us fix the mess caused by a debt crisis, by hoping that we go out and take on more debt and spend .

QE hasn't really worked in the States. It just temporarily inflates the stock market, but it devalues the dollar. They were hoping for inflation within the States, but it only really happened outside the States and pushed food prices up which is a serious problem in poor countries. Now the ECB is going to try it. This is how Greece, Turkey and Italy used to run their currencies. Great.

The fly in the ointment is the dollar coupled with the US Government debt. China and Japan are willing to subsidise the whole show for their own economic reasons. But what happens if they, or others, pull the plug by insisting on some of the US debt being repaid? Something like 40% of the debt is short term (less than 1 year) and has to be re-financed every year.

In times of global economic turmoil, people buy from the US Treasury as they see the dollar as the safest bet. the irony is that if they stopped buying, it would create economic turmoil within the US.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/mikepatton/2014/10/28/who-owns-the-most-u-s-debt/ (http://www.forbes.com/sites/mikepatton/2014/10/28/who-owns-the-most-u-s-debt/)

Conclusion

Given the state of the global markets, the U.S. is still considered to be the best house in a bad neighborhood. Even though more than one third of the debt is owned by foreign nations, as long as there are no safer places to invest, money will find its way here. Therefore, global turmoil would be in the best interest of the federal government. Anything which raises fear will bring money to the Treasury and allay the need for higher taxes. However, one day this unsustainable path we're on will reach its day of reckoning. However, that's probably not any time soon.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on October 29, 2014, 09:30:15 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 29, 2014, 02:00:35 PM
Quote from: seafoid on October 29, 2014, 10:29:23 AM
Martin Wolf on the bank stress tests

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cb939e1a-5dc7-11e4-897f-00144feabdc0.html

"It is essential not to make too much of these stress tests and asset quality review. Yes, they are real improvements. But they do not mean that eurozone banks will now drive growth. They still have too little capital for that. More important, the eurozone lacks a credible strategy for reigniting demand. If much of the German policy elite continues to deny this is even a problem, the crisis of the eurozone must remain unresolved. That is a disaster."


AIB is a good example of his point.

It seems everyone in power thinks the only possible solution to the post-credit boom collapse, is to get the banks firing out more credit. They seem to think that the banks won't screw it up again with property (or other) bubbles and the resulting consumption will get the economies all growing again.

So who will borrow all this money?

Ordinary citizens? Not a hope in the short term. Some are underwater from the last credit bubble, others have all their disposable income servicing debt and the new high tax regime leaves very little to spare.

Small businesses? They are closing or downsizing. With the consumers cutting spending due to their debts, this sector has really struggled. Take a walk around a town like Castlebar and see how many businesses are gone under in the last few years. And remember, Ireland is further down the road to whatever recovery we get than the rest of Europe.

Large businesses? Hard to see a huge number of these expanding at this time, in anticipation of a dramatic pick up in demand that comes out of the blue. China's growth is slowing down. This is adversely affecting the world's biggest exporter, Germany, and thus pulling down growth in the whole Eurozone. Why would large businesses expand in that scenario?

The only way demand will pick up is to lower taxes or somehow reduce the private debt burden, or both. The EU/ECB/IMF/FED tackled bank debt only and by default the banks creditors. But they continue to completely ignore the debt handed out by the banks. There will be feck all recovery until this burden is tackled.

Think about the above. They want to us fix the mess caused by a debt crisis, by hoping that we go out and take on more debt and spend .

QE hasn't really worked in the States. It just temporarily inflates the stock market, but it devalues the dollar. They were hoping for inflation within the States, but it only really happened outside the States and pushed food prices up which is a serious problem in poor countries. Now the ECB is going to try it. This is how Greece, Turkey and Italy used to run their currencies. Great.

The fly in the ointment is the dollar coupled with the US Government debt. China and Japan are willing to subsidise the whole show for their own economic reasons. But what happens if they, or others, pull the plug by insisting on some of the US debt being repaid? Something like 40% of the debt is short term (less than 1 year) and has to be re-financed every year.

In times of global economic turmoil, people buy from the US Treasury as they see the dollar as the safest bet. the irony is that if they stopped buying, it would create economic turmoil within the US.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/mikepatton/2014/10/28/who-owns-the-most-u-s-debt/ (http://www.forbes.com/sites/mikepatton/2014/10/28/who-owns-the-most-u-s-debt/)

Conclusion

Given the state of the global markets, the U.S. is still considered to be the best house in a bad neighborhood. Even though more than one third of the debt is owned by foreign nations, as long as there are no safer places to invest, money will find its way here. Therefore, global turmoil would be in the best interest of the federal government. Anything which raises fear will bring money to the Treasury and allay the need for higher taxes. However, one day this unsustainable path we're on will reach its day of reckoning. However, that's probably not any time soon.


Banks are supposed to be intermediaries between people who have money and people who need money. It doesn't have to be massive loans. sometimes it's just a credit guarantee that a small company needs. Or a short term facility.
And that isn't working at the moment in the EZ.

Demand is the big challenge.  It doesn't have to be supported by expanding debt though.

Most of the Central Bank response has been about propping up assets rather than putting money in peoples' hands.
Debt could be converted to equity. Maybe it will be if there is another crash.

There are probably too many banks as well. This notion that debt is sacred and we can't scare the markets is also a problem.

Another big issue is the relative power of money and labour. If workers got a higher proportion of their productivity increases as pay rises demand would rise.  This would hurt corporate profit margins but the f*ckers are just tooling around with Earnings per share scams anyway- it's not like they are actually investing much of it. This could also be addressed by tax policy. Use it wisely or lose it.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/753839f0-e75b-11e3-88be-00144feabdc0.html

"Economic forecasters have yet to internalise the fact that the US economy has fundamentally altered. The purchasing power of the majority of Americans has not only stagnated since the recovery began five years ago – it has actually declined.
At $53,000, the median US household is more than $4,000 – or 7.6 per cent – poorer in real terms than it was at the start of the recession in 2008, according to Sentier Research. Yet the economy as a whole has long since overtaken its pre-recession size."


A big investment programme could also get things moving again.  If you look at Ireland there is a lot that could be done to improve the quality of life.  but that would not necessarily be in the interests of people holding financial assets. Or maybe it would.  A lot of this is about power, I think.


Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on October 29, 2014, 10:17:27 PM
http://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2014/oct/29/quantitative-easing-policy-stimulus-janet-yellen-ecb
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on October 29, 2014, 10:52:24 PM
Quote from: seafoid on October 29, 2014, 10:17:27 PM
http://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2014/oct/29/quantitative-easing-policy-stimulus-janet-yellen-ecb

The helicopter money, as they call it in the article, would have been far better.

Those that needed to reduce debt would have given it straight to the banks while the rest would have either saved it (banks again) or spent it thus increasing demand. The argument that helicopter is permanent while QE is temporary looks very foolish now. QE seems to be here to stay while taxes could have undone any problems helicopter money caused. Instead the wider public just got the taxes.

They needed to increase demand and decided on austerity as the way to do it. I know nothing of economics but surely the basics of supply and demand always apply? Austerity can only reduce demand. QE, as far as I can see has failed, unless you are a smart speculator or a banker.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: macdanger2 on October 29, 2014, 11:13:07 PM
I find it amazing listening to the radio every morning (newstalk @ 0630) to hear them talking about stocks, the markets reaction to various things and what the central banks, etc are going to do to calm the markets. As if the markets actually make a difference to the real economy or the average Joe in the street but yet it seems to be high on the agenda for the central banks and the media
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on October 29, 2014, 11:29:01 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 29, 2014, 10:52:24 PM
Quote from: seafoid on October 29, 2014, 10:17:27 PM
http://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2014/oct/29/quantitative-easing-policy-stimulus-janet-yellen-ecb

The helicopter money, as they call it in the article, would have been far better.

Those that needed to reduce debt would have given it straight to the banks while the rest would have either saved it (banks again) or spent it thus increasing demand. The argument that helicopter is permanent while QE is temporary looks very foolish now. QE seems to be here to stay while taxes could have undone any problems helicopter money caused. Instead the wider public just got the taxes.

They needed to increase demand and decided on austerity as the way to do it. I know nothing of economics but surely the basics of supply and demand always apply? Austerity can only reduce demand. QE, as far as I can see has failed, unless you are a smart speculator or a banker.
It would have been far better. QE drove up a lot of asset prices (but none of them are guaranteed to stay at whatever level they are at now).
The net result is the enrichment of a very small proportion of the population.
Big questions about where prices go now.
I think we'll see QE4 the next time markets look like they might cry. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on October 29, 2014, 11:44:34 PM
Quote from: seafoid on October 29, 2014, 11:29:01 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 29, 2014, 10:52:24 PM
Quote from: seafoid on October 29, 2014, 10:17:27 PM
http://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2014/oct/29/quantitative-easing-policy-stimulus-janet-yellen-ecb

The helicopter money, as they call it in the article, would have been far better.

Those that needed to reduce debt would have given it straight to the banks while the rest would have either saved it (banks again) or spent it thus increasing demand. The argument that helicopter is permanent while QE is temporary looks very foolish now. QE seems to be here to stay while taxes could have undone any problems helicopter money caused. Instead the wider public just got the taxes.

They needed to increase demand and decided on austerity as the way to do it. I know nothing of economics but surely the basics of supply and demand always apply? Austerity can only reduce demand. QE, as far as I can see has failed, unless you are a smart speculator or a banker.
It would have been far better. QE drove up a lot of asset prices (but none of them are guaranteed to stay at whatever level they are at now).
The net result is the enrichment of a very small proportion of the population.
Big questions about where prices go now.
I think we'll see QE4 the next time markets look like they might cry.

Is it actually policy to try to create bubbles?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on October 30, 2014, 12:11:14 AM
Quote from: muppet on October 29, 2014, 11:44:34 PM
Quote from: seafoid on October 29, 2014, 11:29:01 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 29, 2014, 10:52:24 PM
Quote from: seafoid on October 29, 2014, 10:17:27 PM
http://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2014/oct/29/quantitative-easing-policy-stimulus-janet-yellen-ecb

The helicopter money, as they call it in the article, would have been far better.

Those that needed to reduce debt would have given it straight to the banks while the rest would have either saved it (banks again) or spent it thus increasing demand. The argument that helicopter is permanent while QE is temporary looks very foolish now. QE seems to be here to stay while taxes could have undone any problems helicopter money caused. Instead the wider public just got the taxes.

They needed to increase demand and decided on austerity as the way to do it. I know nothing of economics but surely the basics of supply and demand always apply? Austerity can only reduce demand. QE, as far as I can see has failed, unless you are a smart speculator or a banker.
It would have been far better. QE drove up a lot of asset prices (but none of them are guaranteed to stay at whatever level they are at now).
The net result is the enrichment of a very small proportion of the population.
Big questions about where prices go now.
I think we'll see QE4 the next time markets look like they might cry.

Is it actually policy to try to create bubbles?
That is what it looks like. Janet Yellen says she isn't worried about bubbles causing financial instability.
I think she's wrong. they probably are afraid of scaring the horses so they just go along the path of least resistance.
Restructuring the system would be too much effort so it remains  what Martin Wolf calls a doomsday machine

Mohamed El Erian recently commented as follows

"If you tell [investors] we're in a low-growth environment and add on top of that the central banks are your best friend . . . [they] will lever every single risk factor [they] can find"

They will tear the arse out of it. They always do.

Hyman Minsky wrote a paper in the 90s about financial instability

http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/wp74.pdf

The first theorem of the financial instability hypothesis is that the economy has financing regimes
under which it is stable, and financing regimes in which it is unstable. The second theorem of the financial instability
hypothesis is that over periods of prolonged prosperity, the economy transits from financial relations that make for a stable
system to financial relations that make for an unstable system. In particular, over a protracted period of good times,
capitalist economies tend to move from a financial structure dominated by hedge finance units to a structure in which there is
large weight to units engaged in speculative and Ponzi finance.  (this is what happened in Ireland in 2005 or so on)

Furthermore, if an economy with a sizeable body of speculative financial units is in an inflationary state, and the authorities
attempt to exorcise inflation by monetary constraint, then speculative units will become Ponzi units and the net worth of
previously Ponzi units will quickly evaporate.
 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: TabClear on October 30, 2014, 06:59:07 AM
Quote from: macdanger2 on October 29, 2014, 11:13:07 PM
I find it amazing listening to the radio every morning (newstalk @ 0630) to hear them talking about stocks, the markets reaction to various things and what the central banks, etc are going to do to calm the markets. As if the markets actually make a difference to the real economy or the average Joe in the street but yet it seems to be high on the agenda for the central banks and the media

You don't have to own loads of sharesto be impacted by the markets. You would be surprised how big a difference a strong market makes to "average Joe". A strong market means

People's pension pots are more secure/larger
Companies are more confident bullish about expansion plans hence more jobs/investment
Large companies can access cheaper debt to invest in jobs/infrastrucure due to higher share price and more institutional investor (i.e. debt providers) confidence

All this confidence in the larger companies does filter through to smaller companies and wages. If the markets are weak or volatile, these instituional investors tend to put money in safer places like gold, treasury bonds etc which do not have the same multiplier effect as investment in large corporates.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on October 30, 2014, 10:18:28 AM
Quote from: TabClear on October 30, 2014, 06:59:07 AM
Quote from: macdanger2 on October 29, 2014, 11:13:07 PM
I find it amazing listening to the radio every morning (newstalk @ 0630) to hear them talking about stocks, the markets reaction to various things and what the central banks, etc are going to do to calm the markets. As if the markets actually make a difference to the real economy or the average Joe in the street but yet it seems to be high on the agenda for the central banks and the media

You don't have to own loads of sharesto be impacted by the markets. You would be surprised how big a difference a strong market makes to "average Joe". A strong market means

People's pension pots are more secure/larger
Companies are more confident bullish about expansion plans hence more jobs/investment
Large companies can access cheaper debt to invest in jobs/infrastrucure due to higher share price and more institutional investor (i.e. debt providers) confidence

All this confidence in the larger companies does filter through to smaller companies and wages. If the markets are weak or volatile, these instituional investors tend to put money in safer places like gold, treasury bonds etc which do not have the same multiplier effect as investment in large corporates.
A strong market now means pension pots look better but they are no guarantee that the money will be there on retirement.
Ultimately share prices depend on company earnings and if these are overestimated now the share price will come down over time.
A market less shortsighted and more interested in steady growth would be better for the man and the woman  on the street.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: magpie seanie on October 30, 2014, 02:54:16 PM
Interesting reading guys as per usual. Makes a lot of sense of my lay man thinking on what I'm observing, thanks.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: mikehunt on October 30, 2014, 03:28:13 PM
ah it's all a load of bollix. The "market" is a rich mans Paddy Power. Gamblers win and others lose. Leeches like investment managers, brokers, rating agencies, auditors and solicitors take their (massive) cut and encourage others to join the Ponzi scheme by spoofing about robust markets and the like. Fred "the shred" Goodwin was the greatest thing since sliced bread one minute and the next he had to leave in disgrace. At the risk of repeating myself it's all a lod of bollix.

If everyone decided to call all their winnings in at the one time, everything would go t!ts up. There isn't enough to cover all money "invested". The only reason I invest in a pension is because the crowd I work for have to double it. I don't expect anything from it. I'm not convinced the argument about inflation over time either. Tell that to people who invested for the last 30 years and then looked for a pension 5 years ago when they retired and there was nothing there. it's all a load of bollix i tells ya.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: magpie seanie on October 30, 2014, 04:04:38 PM
Quote from: mikehunt on October 30, 2014, 03:28:13 PM
ah it's all a load of bollix. The "market" is a rich mans Paddy Power. Gamblers win and others lose. Leeches like investment managers, brokers, rating agencies, auditors and solicitors take their (massive) cut and encourage others to join the Ponzi scheme by spoofing about robust markets and the like. Fred "the shred" Goodwin was the greatest thing since sliced bread one minute and the next he had to leave in disgrace. At the risk of repeating myself it's all a lod of bollix.

If everyone decided to call all their winnings in at the one time, everything would go t!ts up. There isn't enough to cover all money "invested". The only reason I invest in a pension is because the crowd I work for have to double it. I don't expect anything from it. I'm not convinced the argument about inflation over time either. Tell that to people who invested for the last 30 years and then looked for a pension 5 years ago when they retired and there was nothing there. it's all a load of bollix i tells ya.

I agree. One particular mate of mine and I have always thought pensions are the biggest legal scam out there. A few other mates of ours are actuaries - we give them loads and they genuinely think we're mad. Their big salaries, offices etc have to be paid somehow!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: mackers on October 30, 2014, 04:50:13 PM
Quote from: mikehunt on October 30, 2014, 03:28:13 PM
ah it's all a load of bollix. The "market" is a rich mans Paddy Power. Gamblers win and others lose. Leeches like investment managers, brokers, rating agencies, auditors and solicitors take their (massive) cut and encourage others to join the Ponzi scheme by spoofing about robust markets and the like. Fred "the shred" Goodwin was the greatest thing since sliced bread one minute and the next he had to leave in disgrace. At the risk of repeating myself it's all a lod of bollix.

If everyone decided to call all their winnings in at the one time, everything would go t!ts up. There isn't enough to cover all money "invested". The only reason I invest in a pension is because the crowd I work for have to double it. I don't expect anything from it. I'm not convinced the argument about inflation over time either. Tell that to people who invested for the last 30 years and then looked for a pension 5 years ago when they retired and there was nothing there. it's all a load of bollix i tells ya.
There's a lot of truth in what you say but I have to call you on the bit in bold.  If these people are sitting in equity based investments within 5 years of their retirement then they're taking no advice.  You sound like a load of other barstool experts on pensions.  Running pensions down because of the circumstances you have described when a situation like it is easily cured if people got up off your butt and spoke to somebody about it! 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: mikehunt on October 30, 2014, 04:57:46 PM
Quote from: mackers on October 30, 2014, 04:50:13 PM
Quote from: mikehunt on October 30, 2014, 03:28:13 PM
ah it's all a load of bollix. The "market" is a rich mans Paddy Power. Gamblers win and others lose. Leeches like investment managers, brokers, rating agencies, auditors and solicitors take their (massive) cut and encourage others to join the Ponzi scheme by spoofing about robust markets and the like. Fred "the shred" Goodwin was the greatest thing since sliced bread one minute and the next he had to leave in disgrace. At the risk of repeating myself it's all a lod of bollix.

If everyone decided to call all their winnings in at the one time, everything would go t!ts up. There isn't enough to cover all money "invested". The only reason I invest in a pension is because the crowd I work for have to double it. I don't expect anything from it. I'm not convinced the argument about inflation over time either. Tell that to people who invested for the last 30 years and then looked for a pension 5 years ago when they retired and there was nothing there. it's all a load of bollix i tells ya.
There's a lot of truth in what you say but I have to call you on the bit in bold.  If these people are sitting in equity based investments within 5 years of their retirement then they're taking no advice.  You sound like a load of other barstool experts on pensions.  Running pensions down because of the circumstances you have described when a situation like it is easily cured if people got up off your butt and spoke to somebody about it!

You need only look to see what Irish Life have done to pensions under their control. These "experts" are paid to make decision on behalf of investors, they also take a cut of any profit. However, any losses incurred are at the expense of the investor. Blaming investor's for investment management incompetence is a bit like Tony Fearon blaming parents for their kids being abused by priests.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: mackers on October 30, 2014, 06:17:27 PM
I was referring to seeking independent financial advice, a good financial adviser will help you to pick the correct fund closer to retirement. You're referring to fund managers, two completely different things.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: mikehunt on October 30, 2014, 07:35:55 PM
Quote from: mackers on October 30, 2014, 06:17:27 PM
I was referring to seeking independent financial advice, a good financial adviser will help you to pick the correct fund closer to retirement. You're referring to fund managers, two completely different things.

You're talking about individual pension plans as opposed to group plans. You have little or no say on what your contribution invests in when with a group plan. I'm not certain but would say the majority are in these types of plans. In relation to individuals who invested all money in bank shares and lost everything like Gay Byrne I would find it hard to have too much sympathy. Basic rule of not putting all eggs in one basket. Having said that I didn't hear many financial advisers advising caution or to divest towards the end of the boom. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: mackers on October 30, 2014, 07:47:56 PM
There's nothing to stop anybody speaking to an adviser about their pension pot within a group plan. If you have a significant period of time to retirement there is generally no need to panic if your fund falls, just wait for the markets to recover.  If you are about to retire it is a very different matter, that's why you should not be in equity based investments, which was my original point.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on October 30, 2014, 08:18:07 PM
Quote from: mackers on October 30, 2014, 07:47:56 PM
There's nothing to stop anybody speaking to an adviser about their pension pot within a group plan. If you have a significant period of time to retirement there is generally no need to panic if your fund falls, just wait for the markets to recover.  If you are about to retire it is a very different matter, that's why you should not be in equity based investments, which was my original point.

Your position as an individual in a group plan is very weak if it is in deficit. Which most are. Elderfield, post crash added a 15% funding requirement, just like that. Add in the pension levy and the usual 'too much regulation in the crash after too little regulation in the boom' scenario, and things are pretty tough for private group pensions in Ireland.

No problem for public pensions though. Not funded (7% funds f*ck all), no levy on them and no deficit to worry about.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: mikehunt on October 30, 2014, 08:19:07 PM
Quote from: mackers on October 30, 2014, 07:47:56 PM
There's nothing to stop anybody speaking to an adviser about their pension pot within a group plan. If you have a significant period of time to retirement there is generally no need to panic if your fund falls, just wait for the markets to recover.  If you are about to retire it is a very different matter, that's why you should not be in equity based investments, which was my original point.
Do these financial advisers give free advice or are they another leech sucking more blood from your pension pot? Are you an adviser and if so did you see the crash coming
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: TabClear on October 30, 2014, 08:36:50 PM
Quote from: mikehunt on October 30, 2014, 08:19:07 PM
Quote from: mackers on October 30, 2014, 07:47:56 PM
There's nothing to stop anybody speaking to an adviser about their pension pot within a group plan. If you have a significant period of time to retirement there is generally no need to panic if your fund falls, just wait for the markets to recover.  If you are about to retire it is a very different matter, that's why you should not be in equity based investments, which was my original point.
Do these financial advisers give free advice or are they another leech sucking more blood from your pension pot? Are you an adviser and if so did you see the crash coming

What do you do for a living Mike? I'm assuming you do it for free as you seem to have an issue with someone charging for their expertise?

At worst pension pots are a tax efficient means of saving. Nothing to stop most people determining that all their contributions goes into gilts, treasury bonds etc. Long-term though this will tend to generate lower returns than equities. Obviously the markets are cyclical and you can be unlucky but you determine your risk profile. A good financial adviser will assess your risk appetite and advise accordingly.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: TabClear on October 30, 2014, 08:52:04 PM
Quote from: seafoid on October 30, 2014, 10:18:28 AM
Quote from: TabClear on October 30, 2014, 06:59:07 AM
Quote from: macdanger2 on October 29, 2014, 11:13:07 PM
I find it amazing listening to the radio every morning (newstalk @ 0630) to hear them talking about stocks, the markets reaction to various things and what the central banks, etc are going to do to calm the markets. As if the markets actually make a difference to the real economy or the average Joe in the street but yet it seems to be high on the agenda for the central banks and the media

You don't have to own loads of sharesto be impacted by the markets. You would be surprised how big a difference a strong market makes to "average Joe". A strong market means

People's pension pots are more secure/larger
Companies are more confident bullish about expansion plans hence more jobs/investment
Large companies can access cheaper debt to invest in jobs/infrastrucure due to higher share price and more institutional investor (i.e. debt providers) confidence

All this confidence in the larger companies does filter through to smaller companies and wages. If the markets are weak or volatile, these instituional investors tend to put money in safer places like gold, treasury bonds etc which do not have the same multiplier effect as investment in large corporates.
A strong market now means pension pots look better but they are no guarantee that the money will be there on retirement.
Ultimately share prices depend on company earnings and if these are overestimated now the share price will come down over time.
A market less shortsighted and more interested in steady growth would be better for the man and the woman  on the street.

Agree with this.Unfortunately however the reality is that most listed companies executives are on 3 to 5 year share option bonuses so it's all about hitting their targets in the short term. Look at the ongoing Tesco fiasco, it's all mainly about accelerating revenues. It even caught Warren Buffett out for hundreds of millions!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: mackers on October 30, 2014, 08:54:56 PM
Quote from: TabClear on October 30, 2014, 08:36:50 PM
Quote from: mikehunt on October 30, 2014, 08:19:07 PM
Quote from: mackers on October 30, 2014, 07:47:56 PM
There's nothing to stop anybody speaking to an adviser about their pension pot within a group plan. If you have a significant period of time to retirement there is generally no need to panic if your fund falls, just wait for the markets to recover.  If you are about to retire it is a very different matter, that's why you should not be in equity based investments, which was my original point.
Do these financial advisers give free advice or are they another leech sucking more blood from your pension pot? Are you an adviser and if so did you see the crash coming

What do you do for a living Mike? I'm assuming you do it for free as you seem to have an issue with someone charging for their expertise?

At worst pension pots are a tax efficient means of saving. Nothing to stop most people determining that all their contributions goes into gilts, treasury bonds etc. Long-term though this will tend to generate lower returns than equities. Obviously the markets are cyclical and you can be unlucky but you determine your risk profile. A good financial adviser will assess your risk appetite and advise accordingly.
100% correct TabClear. Everyone thinks they have to have their pensions in equities but this isn't the case.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: mackers on October 30, 2014, 09:01:31 PM
Quote from: mikehunt on October 30, 2014, 08:19:07 PM
Quote from: mackers on October 30, 2014, 07:47:56 PM
There's nothing to stop anybody speaking to an adviser about their pension pot within a group plan. If you have a significant period of time to retirement there is generally no need to panic if your fund falls, just wait for the markets to recover.  If you are about to retire it is a very different matter, that's why you should not be in equity based investments, which was my original point.
Do these financial advisers give free advice or are they another leech sucking more blood from your pension pot? Are you an adviser and if so did you see the crash coming
This is the attitude that I was getting at in my original post. The guys on the bar stools won't pay an adviser a couple of hundred quid and moan as their pension pot loses thousands. Sensible stuff.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on October 30, 2014, 09:03:54 PM
Quote from: mackers on October 30, 2014, 09:01:31 PM
Quote from: mikehunt on October 30, 2014, 08:19:07 PM
Quote from: mackers on October 30, 2014, 07:47:56 PM
There's nothing to stop anybody speaking to an adviser about their pension pot within a group plan. If you have a significant period of time to retirement there is generally no need to panic if your fund falls, just wait for the markets to recover.  If you are about to retire it is a very different matter, that's why you should not be in equity based investments, which was my original point.
Do these financial advisers give free advice or are they another leech sucking more blood from your pension pot? Are you an adviser and if so did you see the crash coming
This is the attitude that I was getting at in my original post. The guys on the bar stools won't pay an adviser a couple of hundred quid and moan as their pension pot loses thousands. Sensible stuff.

How much would it have been worth to have an advisor worth his salt the night of the Lenihan/Cowan Bank Guarantee?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: mackers on October 30, 2014, 09:11:01 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 30, 2014, 09:03:54 PM
Quote from: mackers on October 30, 2014, 09:01:31 PM
Quote from: mikehunt on October 30, 2014, 08:19:07 PM
Quote from: mackers on October 30, 2014, 07:47:56 PM
There's nothing to stop anybody speaking to an adviser about their pension pot within a group plan. If you have a significant period of time to retirement there is generally no need to panic if your fund falls, just wait for the markets to recover.  If you are about to retire it is a very different matter, that's why you should not be in equity based investments, which was my original point.
Do these financial advisers give free advice or are they another leech sucking more blood from your pension pot? Are you an adviser and if so did you see the crash coming
This is the attitude that I was getting at in my original post. The guys on the bar stools won't pay an adviser a couple of hundred quid and moan as their pension pot loses thousands. Sensible stuff.


How much would it have been worth to have an advisor worth his salt the night of the Lenihan/Cowan Bank Guarantee?
No adviser would have known and you know it. As I've said earlier if you have 10 + years to retirement then you would have recouped their losses from that time already if they had the foresight to sit tight. Those who were on the cusp of retirement at the time should not have been exposed to the risk.  Good advisers wouldn't have known what was round the corner ( to think otherwise is stupid), where the adviser earned his/her corn would have been to have taken the client away from exposure to such risk.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: TabClear on October 30, 2014, 09:13:21 PM
I think the ftse and Dow Jones are at higher levels now than pre recession, could be wrong on that though.Markets are cyclical but the fundamental is that you have to be in for the long-term. Politicians getting involved is always going to increase volatility. Chief execs will look forward to their next share option when making decisions, politicians only look forward to the next election!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on October 30, 2014, 09:16:38 PM
Quote from: mackers on October 30, 2014, 09:11:01 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 30, 2014, 09:03:54 PM
Quote from: mackers on October 30, 2014, 09:01:31 PM
Quote from: mikehunt on October 30, 2014, 08:19:07 PM
Quote from: mackers on October 30, 2014, 07:47:56 PM
There's nothing to stop anybody speaking to an adviser about their pension pot within a group plan. If you have a significant period of time to retirement there is generally no need to panic if your fund falls, just wait for the markets to recover.  If you are about to retire it is a very different matter, that's why you should not be in equity based investments, which was my original point.
Do these financial advisers give free advice or are they another leech sucking more blood from your pension pot? Are you an adviser and if so did you see the crash coming
This is the attitude that I was getting at in my original post. The guys on the bar stools won't pay an adviser a couple of hundred quid and moan as their pension pot loses thousands. Sensible stuff.


How much would it have been worth to have an advisor worth his salt the night of the Lenihan/Cowan Bank Guarantee?
No adviser would have known and you know it. As I've said earlier if you have 10 + years to retirement then you would have recouped their losses from that time already if they had the foresight to sit tight. Those who were on the cusp of retirement at the time should not have been exposed to the risk.  Good advisers wouldn't have known what was round the corner ( to think otherwise is stupid), where the adviser earned his/her corn would have been to have taken the client away from exposure to such risk.

I think you misunderstood me.

It is easy to call advisors a waste of money and to dismiss using them. But that is too simplistic. If, obviously with hindsight, we could go back and put an advisor worth his salt in that room with Lenin & Cowan, how much would it have been worth to us?

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: mikehunt on October 30, 2014, 09:24:23 PM
Saving for the future is a good idea obviously so I have nothing against them in theory. However the last person that will benefit will be the contributors. There are numerous parties involved and all want their fees. I include solicitors, brokers,trustees, inv managers, auditors, regulators. Some fees are mandatory, others like financial advisers are optional.

If profits are made then mgr takes a percentage of this and this can be a hefty cut. However losses are not penalised. Fixed fees are still in place. The risks far outweigh the potential benefits imo. While it is important to encourage performance there should be penalties for poor performance. There is nothing to stop reckless speculating.

It is tax efficient but that is govt policy and nothing to do with the parties involved. What Irish Life done recently where people have been told their pension is worthless and demanding massive reinvestment has been kept unsurprisingly quiet.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: mackers on October 30, 2014, 09:34:49 PM
I think you misunderstand my point also. A financial adviser would not have been worth a cold penny to you that night, I never said he would. My point has been fairly consistent all along. A 40 year old in 2008 would have been better invested in equities that night as he has already regained the losses experienced in the subsequent period. The majority of stock markets are now at higher levels than they were in 2008. A 65 year old in 2008 would have been a lot worse off if he was invested in equities at that point. He could not wait for markets to recover the way a 40 year old could. The 65 year old should not have been in equities, no matter what the stock market conditions.
A good financial adviser would not have had a 65 year old invested in equities that night, he should have had that client out of equities from his 60th birthday onwards.


Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: mikehunt on October 30, 2014, 09:35:45 PM
Quote from: mackers on October 30, 2014, 09:01:31 PM
Quote from: mikehunt on October 30, 2014, 08:19:07 PM
Quote from: mackers on October 30, 2014, 07:47:56 PM
There's nothing to stop anybody speaking to an adviser about their pension pot within a group plan. If you have a significant period of time to retirement there is generally no need to panic if your fund falls, just wait for the markets to recover.  If you are about to retire it is a very different matter, that's why you should not be in equity based investments, which was my original point.
Do these financial advisers give free advice or are they another leech sucking more blood from your pension pot? Are you an adviser and if so did you see the crash coming
This is the attitude that I was getting at in my original post. The guys on the bar stools won't pay an adviser a couple of hundred quid and moan as their pension pot loses thousands. Sensible stuff.
That's too simplistic.  In that case if everyone had a good financial adviser then all would be ok or at worst losses would be minimised. I didn't hear many advisers seeing the crash coming. All I remember is how bank shares were a must in any portfolio as they were only going one way.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: TabClear on October 30, 2014, 09:36:44 PM
Quote from: mikehunt on October 30, 2014, 09:24:23 PM
Saving for the future is a good idea obviously so I have nothing against them in theory. However the last person that will benefit will be the contributors. There are numerous parties involved and all want their fees. I include solicitors, brokers,trustees, inv managers, auditors, regulators. Some fees are mandatory, others like financial advisers are optional.

If profits are made then mgr takes a percentage of this and this can be a hefty cut. However losses are not penalised. Fixed fees are still in place. The risks far outweigh the potential benefits imo. While it is important to encourage performance there should be penalties for poor performance. There is nothing to stop reckless speculating.

It is tax efficient but that is govt policy and nothing to do with the parties involved. What Irish Life done recently where people have been told their pension is worthless and demanding massive reinvestment has been kept unsurprisingly quiet.

Don't disagree with you about the one sided nature of the  fee structure. The reality is though that if you choose to invest your money on your own there is nothing to stop you doing that? No fund management fees involved?

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Hound on October 30, 2014, 09:43:53 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 30, 2014, 09:16:38 PM
Quote from: mackers on October 30, 2014, 09:11:01 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 30, 2014, 09:03:54 PM
Quote from: mackers on October 30, 2014, 09:01:31 PM
Quote from: mikehunt on October 30, 2014, 08:19:07 PM
Quote from: mackers on October 30, 2014, 07:47:56 PM
There's nothing to stop anybody speaking to an adviser about their pension pot within a group plan. If you have a significant period of time to retirement there is generally no need to panic if your fund falls, just wait for the markets to recover.  If you are about to retire it is a very different matter, that's why you should not be in equity based investments, which was my original point.
Do these financial advisers give free advice or are they another leech sucking more blood from your pension pot? Are you an adviser and if so did you see the crash coming
This is the attitude that I was getting at in my original post. The guys on the bar stools won't pay an adviser a couple of hundred quid and moan as their pension pot loses thousands. Sensible stuff.


How much would it have been worth to have an advisor worth his salt the night of the Lenihan/Cowan Bank Guarantee?
No adviser would have known and you know it. As I've said earlier if you have 10 + years to retirement then you would have recouped their losses from that time already if they had the foresight to sit tight. Those who were on the cusp of retirement at the time should not have been exposed to the risk.  Good advisers wouldn't have known what was round the corner ( to think otherwise is stupid), where the adviser earned his/her corn would have been to have taken the client away from exposure to such risk.

I think you misunderstood me.

It is easy to call advisors a waste of money and to dismiss using them. But that is too simplistic. If, obviously with hindsight, we could go back and put an advisor worth his salt in that room with Lenin & Cowan, how much would it have been worth to us?
There were paid advisors giving advice to Lenihan and Cowen, Merrill Lynch, but they were ignored.

Merrill Lynch (who have got a lot wrong in advising the govt, including the eircom share price!) advised that the guarantee was needed but that it should only be in respect of deposits.

BOI and AIB clubbed together and advised  the guarantee should cover all deposits and bonds, but that Anglo and Nationwide should be excluded and let fail.

Anglo told them everything was grand and it would all blow over.

So Lenihan and Cowen decided to guarantee the whole shooting match. There was a huge amount of mistakes and incompetence in the years leading up to that night, but it was those two who made the biggest error in the history of the state that night.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: mikehunt on October 30, 2014, 10:15:06 PM
Quote from: TabClear on October 30, 2014, 09:36:44 PM
Quote from: mikehunt on October 30, 2014, 09:24:23 PM
Saving for the future is a good idea obviously so I have nothing against them in theory. However the last person that will benefit will be the contributors. There are numerous parties involved and all want their fees. I include solicitors, brokers,trustees, inv managers, auditors, regulators. Some fees are mandatory, others like financial advisers are optional.

If profits are made then mgr takes a percentage of this and this can be a hefty cut. However losses are not penalised. Fixed fees are still in place. The risks far outweigh the potential benefits imo. While it is important to encourage performance there should be penalties for poor performance. There is nothing to stop reckless speculating.

It is tax efficient but that is govt policy and nothing to do with the parties involved. What Irish Life done recently where people have been told their pension is worthless and demanding massive reinvestment has been kept unsurprisingly quiet.

Don't disagree with you about the one sided nature of the  fee structure. The reality is though that if you choose to invest your money on your own there is nothing to stop you doing that? No fund management fees involved?
If I were investing money I would invest in a simple low risk govt bond or an ord post office savings scheme. Obviously if you want a higher rate then go for a more risky investment but surely the idea is to save for the future so should not be invested in high risk stuff like equity anyway.  That's my simplistic thinking on it. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on October 30, 2014, 10:20:47 PM
Quote from: Hound on October 30, 2014, 09:43:53 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 30, 2014, 09:16:38 PM
Quote from: mackers on October 30, 2014, 09:11:01 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 30, 2014, 09:03:54 PM
Quote from: mackers on October 30, 2014, 09:01:31 PM
Quote from: mikehunt on October 30, 2014, 08:19:07 PM
Quote from: mackers on October 30, 2014, 07:47:56 PM
There's nothing to stop anybody speaking to an adviser about their pension pot within a group plan. If you have a significant period of time to retirement there is generally no need to panic if your fund falls, just wait for the markets to recover.  If you are about to retire it is a very different matter, that's why you should not be in equity based investments, which was my original point.
Do these financial advisers give free advice or are they another leech sucking more blood from your pension pot? Are you an adviser and if so did you see the crash coming
This is the attitude that I was getting at in my original post. The guys on the bar stools won't pay an adviser a couple of hundred quid and moan as their pension pot loses thousands. Sensible stuff.


How much would it have been worth to have an advisor worth his salt the night of the Lenihan/Cowan Bank Guarantee?
No adviser would have known and you know it. As I've said earlier if you have 10 + years to retirement then you would have recouped their losses from that time already if they had the foresight to sit tight. Those who were on the cusp of retirement at the time should not have been exposed to the risk.  Good advisers wouldn't have known what was round the corner ( to think otherwise is stupid), where the adviser earned his/her corn would have been to have taken the client away from exposure to such risk.

I think you misunderstood me.

It is easy to call advisors a waste of money and to dismiss using them. But that is too simplistic. If, obviously with hindsight, we could go back and put an advisor worth his salt in that room with Lenin & Cowan, how much would it have been worth to us?
There were paid advisors giving advice to Lenihan and Cowen, Merrill Lynch, but they were ignored.

Merrill Lynch (who have got a lot wrong in advising the govt, including the eircom share price!) advised that the guarantee was needed but that it should only be in respect of deposits.

BOI and AIB clubbed together and advised  the guarantee should cover all deposits and bonds, but that Anglo and Nationwide should be excluded and let fail.

Anglo told them everything was grand and it would all blow over.

So Lenihan and Cowen decided to guarantee the whole shooting match. There was a huge amount of mistakes and incompetence in the years leading up to that night, but it was those two who made the biggest error in the history of the state that night.

Actually, I was aware of that. They ignored the guy from Merrill Lynch didn't they? He then released a statement disassociating himself from the guarantee or something afterwards.

Here is some of the story: http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0716/133404-banks/ (http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0716/133404-banks/)

Our problem is that at the end of that night, Lenihan (my predictive text corrects this to Lenin!) & Cowan were the last two in the room when the decision was made. I'd still argue we would have been far better off if we could have forced a heavyweight who knew his stuff on the two clowns. Instead the two took it upon themselves.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: TabClear on October 30, 2014, 10:38:16 PM
Quote from: mikehunt on October 30, 2014, 10:15:06 PM
Quote from: TabClear on October 30, 2014, 09:36:44 PM
Quote from: mikehunt on October 30, 2014, 09:24:23 PM
Saving for the future is a good idea obviously so I have nothing against them in theory. However the last person that will benefit will be the contributors. There are numerous parties involved and all want their fees. I include solicitors, brokers,trustees, inv managers, auditors, regulators. Some fees are mandatory, others like financial advisers are optional.

If profits are made then mgr takes a percentage of this and this can be a hefty cut. However losses are not penalised. Fixed fees are still in place. The risks far outweigh the potential benefits imo. While it is important to encourage performance there should be penalties for poor performance. There is nothing to stop reckless speculating.

It is tax efficient but that is govt policy and nothing to do with the parties involved. What Irish Life done recently where people have been told their pension is worthless and demanding massive reinvestment has been kept unsurprisingly quiet.

Don't disagree with you about the one sided nature of the  fee structure. The reality is though that if you choose to invest your money on your own there is nothing to stop you doing that? No fund management fees involved?
If I were investing money I would invest in a simple low risk govt bond or an ord post office savings scheme. Obviously if you want a higher rate then go for a more risky investment but surely the idea is to save for the future so should not be invested in high risk stuff like equity anyway.   That's my simplistic thinking on it.

And thats your risk profile, you would be classed as risk averse, i.e. willing to accept a lower income when you are retired on the basis that it is more certain. Nothing wrong with that, but the statistics would show that on average longterm you would be better investing in equities. The "on average" is the key, you could be unlucky and need to buy an annuity when the market crashes. (however, as Mackers has said, a good adviser will have rebalanced your portfolio into low risk products by then.)

I do think however it is unfair to classify advisers as "leeches" because they are facilitating people who dont share your mindset and who are willing to take more risk in the hope of a bigger pay off. Your strategy is straightforward, as you say stick it into goverment bonds. You can do that yourself and just leave it until maturity and dont need a 3rd party manager. If you are in equities you do need to be aware and take actions based on market trends that affect your portfolio, hence the fees to get someone else to do this for you. By definition these advisers are dealing with the riskier side of things and that is why you hear the horror stories.

What I am in complete agreement with you on is with regard to the advisers who dont listen to thier clients wishes and invest in products completely wrong for the individual because it pays them greater fees. There are cowboys  in every trade however but that does not make them all like that.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: mackers on October 31, 2014, 09:26:07 AM
Quote from: TabClear on October 30, 2014, 10:38:16 PM
What I am in complete agreement with you on is with regard to the advisers who dont listen to thier clients wishes and invest in products completely wrong for the individual because it pays them greater fees. There are cowboys  in every trade however but that does not make them all like that.
Agree completely on all that you have said except for the last paragraph.  The UK government (not sure about the South) have banned commission from all pension and investment products thereby alleviating any concerns that a client may have on why an adviser is telling them to take a certain product.  The adviser will be charging the same advice fee no matter what product is recommended and the charge is explicit.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: johnneycool on October 31, 2014, 09:41:41 AM
Quote from: mackers on October 31, 2014, 09:26:07 AM
Quote from: TabClear on October 30, 2014, 10:38:16 PM
What I am in complete agreement with you on is with regard to the advisers who dont listen to thier clients wishes and invest in products completely wrong for the individual because it pays them greater fees. There are cowboys  in every trade however but that does not make them all like that.
Agree completely on all that you have said except for the last paragraph.  The UK government (not sure about the South) have banned commission from all pension and investment products thereby alleviating any concerns that a client may have on why an adviser is telling them to take a certain product.  The adviser will be charging the same advice fee no matter what product is recommended and the charge is explicit.

Yeah, but in my experience these independent financial advisers try to get you on the bells and whistles, Life assurance, payment protection and what not.
You really need to be on your guard when dealing with financial advisers as they're all a shower of (unregulated!) shíte.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: mackers on October 31, 2014, 09:58:17 AM
Quote from: johnneycool on October 31, 2014, 09:41:41 AM
Quote from: mackers on October 31, 2014, 09:26:07 AM
Quote from: TabClear on October 30, 2014, 10:38:16 PM
What I am in complete agreement with you on is with regard to the advisers who dont listen to thier clients wishes and invest in products completely wrong for the individual because it pays them greater fees. There are cowboys  in every trade however but that does not make them all like that.
Agree completely on all that you have said except for the last paragraph.  The UK government (not sure about the South) have banned commission from all pension and investment products thereby alleviating any concerns that a client may have on why an adviser is telling them to take a certain product.  The adviser will be charging the same advice fee no matter what product is recommended and the charge is explicit.

Yeah, but in my experience these independent financial advisers try to get you on the bells and whistles, Life assurance, payment protection and what not.
You really need to be on your guard when dealing with financial advisers as they're all a shower of (unregulated!) shíte.
I'm not going to waste half my day today by trying to correct unsubstantiated rants like I did yesterday.  The only comment I have to make on the above is that while you may think all advisers are sh1te as you put so eloquently, they are most definitely (heavily) regulated sh1te.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: CiKe on October 31, 2014, 10:20:01 AM
Quote from: mikehunt on October 30, 2014, 09:24:23 PM
Saving for the future is a good idea obviously so I have nothing against them in theory. However the last person that will benefit will be the contributors. There are numerous parties involved and all want their fees. I include solicitors, brokers,trustees, inv managers, auditors, regulators. Some fees are mandatory, others like financial advisers are optional.

If profits are made then mgr takes a percentage of this and this can be a hefty cut. However losses are not penalised. Fixed fees are still in place. The risks far outweigh the potential benefits imo. While it is important to encourage performance there should be penalties for poor performance. There is nothing to stop reckless speculating.

It is tax efficient but that is govt policy and nothing to do with the parties involved. What Irish Life done recently where people have been told their pension is worthless and demanding massive reinvestment has been kept unsurprisingly quiet.

On a mutual fund? Normally there is a fixed expense ratio. If you're talking about hedge fund 2% mgmt fee and then 20% carry fair enough but hedge fund investments not available in most (all?) pension plans.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: mikehunt on October 31, 2014, 11:10:53 AM
Quote from: mackers on October 31, 2014, 09:58:17 AM
Quote from: johnneycool on October 31, 2014, 09:41:41 AM
Quote from: mackers on October 31, 2014, 09:26:07 AM
Quote from: TabClear on October 30, 2014, 10:38:16 PM
What I am in complete agreement with you on is with regard to the advisers who dont listen to thier clients wishes and invest in products completely wrong for the individual because it pays them greater fees. There are cowboys  in every trade however but that does not make them all like that.
Agree completely on all that you have said except for the last paragraph.  The UK government (not sure about the South) have banned commission from all pension and investment products thereby alleviating any concerns that a client may have on why an adviser is telling them to take a certain product.  The adviser will be charging the same advice fee no matter what product is recommended and the charge is explicit.

Yeah, but in my experience these independent financial advisers try to get you on the bells and whistles, Life assurance, payment protection and what not.
You really need to be on your guard when dealing with financial advisers as they're all a shower of (unregulated!) shíte.
I'm not going to waste half my day today by trying to correct unsubstantiated rants like I did yesterday.  The only comment I have to make on the above is that while you may think all advisers are sh1te as you put so eloquently, they are most definitely (heavily) regulated sh1te.

How do your charge your clients?

i) a fixed rate 
ii) charge as a percentage of the investment or
iii) charge based on profits earned because of the advice you provided?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: mikehunt on October 31, 2014, 11:17:27 AM
Quote from: CiKe on October 31, 2014, 10:20:01 AM
Quote from: mikehunt on October 30, 2014, 09:24:23 PM
Saving for the future is a good idea obviously so I have nothing against them in theory. However the last person that will benefit will be the contributors. There are numerous parties involved and all want their fees. I include solicitors, brokers,trustees, inv managers, auditors, regulators. Some fees are mandatory, others like financial advisers are optional.

If profits are made then mgr takes a percentage of this and this can be a hefty cut. However losses are not penalised. Fixed fees are still in place. The risks far outweigh the potential benefits imo. While it is important to encourage performance there should be penalties for poor performance. There is nothing to stop reckless speculating.

It is tax efficient but that is govt policy and nothing to do with the parties involved. What Irish Life done recently where people have been told their pension is worthless and demanding massive reinvestment has been kept unsurprisingly quiet.

On a mutual fund? Normally there is a fixed expense ratio. If you're talking about hedge fund 2% mgmt fee and then 20% carry fair enough but hedge fund investments not available in most (all?) pension plans.

Don't know what percentage is charged but I'd imagine there's incentive to perform and they would take a cut of any profits, maybe not as much as a hedge fund but can't imagine it's just a fixed rate irrespective of performance. Plenty of pensions invest in hedge funds.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on October 31, 2014, 11:42:32 AM
Quote from: muppet on October 30, 2014, 10:20:47 PM
Quote from: Hound on October 30, 2014, 09:43:53 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 30, 2014, 09:16:38 PM
Quote from: mackers on October 30, 2014, 09:11:01 PM
Quote from: muppet on October 30, 2014, 09:03:54 PM
Quote from: mackers on October 30, 2014, 09:01:31 PM
Quote from: mikehunt on October 30, 2014, 08:19:07 PM
Quote from: mackers on October 30, 2014, 07:47:56 PM
There's nothing to stop anybody speaking to an adviser about their pension pot within a group plan. If you have a significant period of time to retirement there is generally no need to panic if your fund falls, just wait for the markets to recover.  If you are about to retire it is a very different matter, that's why you should not be in equity based investments, which was my original point.
Do these financial advisers give free advice or are they another leech sucking more blood from your pension pot? Are you an adviser and if so did you see the crash coming
This is the attitude that I was getting at in my original post. The guys on the bar stools won't pay an adviser a couple of hundred quid and moan as their pension pot loses thousands. Sensible stuff.


How much would it have been worth to have an advisor worth his salt the night of the Lenihan/Cowan Bank Guarantee?
No adviser would have known and you know it. As I've said earlier if you have 10 + years to retirement then you would have recouped their losses from that time already if they had the foresight to sit tight. Those who were on the cusp of retirement at the time should not have been exposed to the risk.  Good advisers wouldn't have known what was round the corner ( to think otherwise is stupid), where the adviser earned his/her corn would have been to have taken the client away from exposure to such risk.

I think you misunderstood me.

It is easy to call advisors a waste of money and to dismiss using them. But that is too simplistic. If, obviously with hindsight, we could go back and put an advisor worth his salt in that room with Lenin & Cowan, how much would it have been worth to us?
There were paid advisors giving advice to Lenihan and Cowen, Merrill Lynch, but they were ignored.

Merrill Lynch (who have got a lot wrong in advising the govt, including the eircom share price!) advised that the guarantee was needed but that it should only be in respect of deposits.

BOI and AIB clubbed together and advised  the guarantee should cover all deposits and bonds, but that Anglo and Nationwide should be excluded and let fail.

Anglo told them everything was grand and it would all blow over.

So Lenihan and Cowen decided to guarantee the whole shooting match. There was a huge amount of mistakes and incompetence in the years leading up to that night, but it was those two who made the biggest error in the history of the state that night.

Actually, I was aware of that. They ignored the guy from Merrill Lynch didn't they? He then released a statement disassociating himself from the guarantee or something afterwards.

Here is some of the story: http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0716/133404-banks/ (http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0716/133404-banks/)

Our problem is that at the end of that night, Lenihan (my predictive text corrects this to Lenin!) & Cowan were the last two in the room when the decision was made. I'd still argue we would have been far better off if we could have forced a heavyweight who knew his stuff on the two clowns. Instead the two took it upon themselves.

The regulator had no idea of the state of the banks. Lenihan had nothing to base his judgement on.
That was the biggest problem.

They had to make a call in a highly stressed late night meeting with no insight so they went with gut feel.
And initially the market reaction was positive because the markets had no idea either.

It was only later that the lunacy of the decision emerged. They gave a blanket guarantee of everything with a total liability of 400bn I think.
They didn't have a strong enough balance sheet to stand behind that. 

They also assumed that the EZ would back them up because they had a good relationship with them when times were good.
And they assumed the boys in Frankfurt knew what they are doing.
Guaranteeing the banks was like giving a teenager unlimited credit.   

The whole story is so f**king depressing. As Prof Julia Black says in this video NOBODY did anything well in 2008/2009

http://www.lse.ac.uk/newsAndMedia/videoAndAudio/channels/publicLecturesAndEvents/player.aspx?id=2219

This is from autumn 2008 but I don't have the link

"If, on the other hand, it turns out that some Irish institutions do need recapitalisation, then it will be difficult to exonerate the Financial Regulator and Central Bank. Those institutions stated quite clearly as recently as mid-July last that Irish banks had not experienced a material increase in loan arrears, that they were well capitalised with good asset quality and that their shock-absorption capacity remained strong
But it is vital to diagnose the problem accurately. Is it one of liquidity or one of capital? Which view is correct? Only time will tell.
It is not being suggested here that the Irish system suffers from "regulatory capture", but the long-standing practice of former governors and senior regulators joining the boards of banks on their retirement should be stopped

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2008/oct/06/creditcrunch.eu

Another observation - again fairly obvious - is that the eurozone remains a hybrid. It is a monetary union but not a political union, and so countries such as Ireland have had to go it alone in bailing out struggling banks. There is a clear distinction between the US, where the government has financial clout across all 50 states, and the EU.

081117 Irish Times
"THE IRISH economy will contract by 4 per cent in 2009, and the recession will last for two years, according to Ulster Bank's latest quarterly economic forecast, writes Ciarán Hancock , Business Affairs Correspondent.  Mr McArdle also warned that the Government's latest estimates for tax revenues in 2008 are "too optimistic" and taxpayers face more pain over the next two years.  He predicted that 85,000 jobs would be lost in Ireland in 2009 as unemployment averaged 8.5 per cent, which would be the highest rate in 12 years"

090121
http://blogs.ft.com/maverecon/2009/01/can-the-uk-government-stop-the-uk-banking-system-going-down-the-snyrting-without-risking-a-sovereign-debt-crisis/#axzz3Hin1LlIy

"According to the rating agencies, the CDS rates and the 10-year sovereign spread over Bunds, the leading candidates for a sovereign solvency crisis are Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy and Ireland. Among the countries where the sovereign is highly exposed to the banking sector, Ireland may well be the next country where the 'too large to rescue' theory may be tested, although countries like the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, the UK and, outside the EU, Switzerland, are also potential candidates for the 'too big to rescue'(without external support) club.   Ireland's outstanding  sovereign debt is low as a share of GDP (around 25 per cent) , but the exposure of the sovereign to its overgrown banking system is massive: the Irish state guaranteed the entire liability side of the banks'balance sheets, except for the equity..Irish 10-year sovereign debt spreads over Bunds stood at 198 basis points on January 16. "

090514 Irish Times

Mr Gleeson said nationalisation would be "a bad thing for shareholders and for Ireland"and the bank would avoid it "at all costs".
Asked why AIB did not heed warnings from analysts about the risks facing the lender as far back as late 2006, Mr Gleeson said: "If you look at the tipsters for yesterday's racing, one in 10 of the tipsters is right and nine are wrong."


090515 The latest European Commission forecasts suggest that Ireland will be something of an outlier in terms of the sensitivity of unemployment to declining output: they see our unemployment rate rising by 11.5 percentage points over the 2008-2010 period while GDP contracts by 13.4 per cent

100531 http://www.emaxo.com/news/show-htm-page-1-itemid-405-page-2.html
For all the talk of European solidarity, there is absolutely no evidence that German taxpayers will agree to a common fiscal policy to provide the budgetary support for the weaker parts of the euro area that Washington provides for the poorer US states. As such, the only options for countries like Greece, Ireland and Spain are devaluation (ruled out by monetary union), default (ditto) or years of deflation. They have opted for the third course, even though this will lead to slower growth and make it even harder to reduce budget deficits. Europe, touted as a progressive alternative to Anglo-Saxon economics, has become neo-liberalism on steroids.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: mackers on October 31, 2014, 12:11:23 PM
Quote from: mikehunt on October 31, 2014, 11:10:53 AM
How do your charge your clients?

i) a fixed rate 
ii) charge as a percentage of the investment or
iii) charge based on profits earned because of the advice you provided?

An adviser will normally charge for the time spent organising a pension/investment portfolio (like an accountant/solicitor) and there would be a charge for an annual review of the portfolio.  We have an online system where clients can check the valuation 24/7 and if they have any concerns they can contact us between reviews.
The charge for the ongoing annual reviews are normally based on a (very small) percentage of the fund value (typically 0.5%) so there is a vested interest in growing the client's fund on an ongoing basis.
The other charges taken out of pensions have been exaggerated by some earlier in the thread.  The only other charge taken from the pension portfolios I would have any involvement in would be an annual management charge levied by the fund manager (1 to 2%).
There has been some confusion on different types of pension with Muppet talking about pension funds being in deficit, these are typically very large occupational schemes where fund charges may be higher.  These are the pensions where trustees, solicitors etc. are involved.  These pensions typically give the employee a certain benefit at retirement and it is the employer who takes the risks and pays the charges.  I am talking from my experience in the North, things may be different in the South.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: mikehunt on October 31, 2014, 12:30:26 PM
Quote from: mackers on October 31, 2014, 12:11:23 PM
Quote from: mikehunt on October 31, 2014, 11:10:53 AM
How do your charge your clients?

i) a fixed rate 
ii) charge as a percentage of the investment or
iii) charge based on profits earned because of the advice you provided?

An adviser will normally charge for the time spent organising a pension/investment portfolio (like an accountant/solicitor) and there would be a charge for an annual review of the portfolio.  We have an online system where clients can check the valuation 24/7 and if they have any concerns they can contact us between reviews.
The charge for the ongoing annual reviews are normally based on a (very small) percentage of the fund value (typically 0.5%) so there is a vested interest in growing the client's fund on an ongoing basis.
The other charges taken out of pensions have been exaggerated by some earlier in the thread.  The only other charge taken from the pension portfolios I would have any involvement in would be an annual management charge levied by the fund manager (1 to 2%).
There has been some confusion on different types of pension with Muppet talking about pension funds being in deficit, these are typically very large occupational schemes where fund charges may be higher.  These are the pensions where trustees, solicitors etc. are involved.  These pensions typically give the employee a certain benefit at retirement and it is the employer who takes the risks and pays the charges.  I am talking from my experience in the North, things may be different in the South.

As I have been described as a risk averse person my worry would be that an advisor would not treat the money as if it were their own. While there are incentives for you to grow the investment, is there a disincentive or penalty if value falls? This could be done by way of paying back performance related bonus from the previous year? I met an "independent" advisor once and God help anyone with money who trusted him. To get out of the meeting I told him I'd invest and rang him an hour later and told him I'd changed my mind.

As an advisor you say it would be impossible for you to have foreseen the crash but that you would advise anyone close to retirement to not hold money in equity. Did you advise anyone who was due to retire in 2010 to sell their shares in Irish Banks in 2005?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: armaghniac on October 31, 2014, 12:40:52 PM
Quote from: MuppetThe regulator had no idea of the state of the banks. Lenihan had nothing to base his judgement on.
That was the biggest problem.

This.  Lenihan was given a suicide pass with a split second to release the ball. Apart from the failures over the years there was a period of a year or so before the guarantee when clouds were gathering and at that stage an accurate picture should have been built up so that a proper decision could be made.

On an aside, there wasn't a proper picture of the banks yet their auditors etc escaped any sanction whatsoever. Did the accounts that they signed represent a true and fair view of the value of banks where the shareholders lost all or most of their money?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on October 31, 2014, 12:48:59 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on October 31, 2014, 12:40:52 PM
Quote from: MuppetThe regulator had no idea of the state of the banks. Lenihan had nothing to base his judgement on.
That was the biggest problem.

This.  Lenihan was given a suicide pass with a split second to release the ball. Apart from the failures over the years there was a period of a year or so before the guarantee when clouds were gathering and at that stage an accurate picture should have been built up so that a proper decision could be made.

On an aside, there wasn't a proper picture of the banks yet their auditors etc escaped any sanction whatsoever. Did the accounts that they signed represent a true and fair view of the value of banks where the shareholders lost all or most of their money?
Auditing for all its benefits is a joke in one very important respect. They just can't deal with tail risk. This is really serious when economic conditions are volatile. And 2008 was all about tail risk- that 9 out of 10 cats were actually wrong and that the disaster was imminent.

The same goes for the rating agencies BTW.
No point in relying on gatekeepers who know nothing.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: mikehunt on October 31, 2014, 01:01:34 PM
Quote from: seafoid on October 31, 2014, 12:48:59 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on October 31, 2014, 12:40:52 PM
Quote from: MuppetThe regulator had no idea of the state of the banks. Lenihan had nothing to base his judgement on.
That was the biggest problem.

This.  Lenihan was given a suicide pass with a split second to release the ball. Apart from the failures over the years there was a period of a year or so before the guarantee when clouds were gathering and at that stage an accurate picture should have been built up so that a proper decision could be made.

On an aside, there wasn't a proper picture of the banks yet their auditors etc escaped any sanction whatsoever. Did the accounts that they signed represent a true and fair view of the value of banks where the shareholders lost all or most of their money?
Auditing for all its benefits is a joke in one very important respect. They just can't deal with tail risk. This is really serious when economic conditions are volatile. And 2008 was all about tail risk- that 9 out of 10 cats were actually wrong and that the disaster was imminent.

The same goes for the rating agencies BTW.
No point in relying on gatekeepers who know nothing.
Auditors will charge you to tell you your accounts are correct. When it is revealed that your accounts are in fact incorrect and that massive fraud has taken place an auditor will come in and charge for telling you where you went wrong and what to do about it. Auditor of misleading accounts is replaced by another auditor and the revolving door process continues as the big auditors move from auditor to advisor and back to auditor.

I find the auditing process a waste of time anyway as it looks to the past and not to the future. It's rare for an auditor to uncover a massive scandal. It is in their interest to keep their big clients happy so there is a confilct of interest in the whole process from the very start. They are supposed to be independent but yet charge a fee for this "independence".
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: TabClear on October 31, 2014, 01:08:51 PM
Quote from: mikehunt on October 31, 2014, 12:30:26 PM
Quote from: mackers on October 31, 2014, 12:11:23 PM
Quote from: mikehunt on October 31, 2014, 11:10:53 AM
How do your charge your clients?

i) a fixed rate 
ii) charge as a percentage of the investment or
iii) charge based on profits earned because of the advice you provided?

An adviser will normally charge for the time spent organising a pension/investment portfolio (like an accountant/solicitor) and there would be a charge for an annual review of the portfolio.  We have an online system where clients can check the valuation 24/7 and if they have any concerns they can contact us between reviews.
The charge for the ongoing annual reviews are normally based on a (very small) percentage of the fund value (typically 0.5%) so there is a vested interest in growing the client's fund on an ongoing basis.
The other charges taken out of pensions have been exaggerated by some earlier in the thread.  The only other charge taken from the pension portfolios I would have any involvement in would be an annual management charge levied by the fund manager (1 to 2%).
There has been some confusion on different types of pension with Muppet talking about pension funds being in deficit, these are typically very large occupational schemes where fund charges may be higher.  These are the pensions where trustees, solicitors etc. are involved.  These pensions typically give the employee a certain benefit at retirement and it is the employer who takes the risks and pays the charges.  I am talking from my experience in the North, things may be different in the South.

As I have been described as a risk averse person my worry would be that an advisor would not treat the money as if it were their own. While there are incentives for you to grow the investment, is there a disincentive or penalty if value falls? This could be done by way of paying back performance related bonus from the previous year? I met an "independent" advisor once and God help anyone with money who trusted him. To get out of the meeting I told him I'd invest and rang him an hour later and told him I'd changed my mind.

As an advisor you say it would be impossible for you to have foreseen the crash but that you would advise anyone close to retirement to not hold money in equity. Did you advise anyone who was due to retire in 2010 to sell their shares in Irish Banks in 2005?

I think in your case there is little incentive to use an adviser as you have said you woudl go into low risk gilts etc. In general there is little you can do to "grow" these above the headline return rate, they pretty much do what they say on the tin.

On the second question, without answering for Mackers, I would say it depends what your adviser has been asked to do. If he is specifically advising on strategy, i.e. stock market  good longterm, then move into gilts, I would imagine that five years pre retirement  you woudl have been advised to get out of most equities. However, if you are asking him specifically on whether to invest in a particular share or class of shares (Irish Bankls) , then you are into stockbroker/investor analyst territory and there is very different regulations and structures in place.

As Seafoid said earlier, the way the Rating Agencies came out of the whole fiasco  2008-12 is an absolute disgrace.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on October 31, 2014, 02:10:28 PM
Quote from: TabClear on October 31, 2014, 01:08:51 PM
Quote from: mikehunt on October 31, 2014, 12:30:26 PM
Quote from: mackers on October 31, 2014, 12:11:23 PM
Quote from: mikehunt on October 31, 2014, 11:10:53 AM
How do your charge your clients?

i) a fixed rate 
ii) charge as a percentage of the investment or
iii) charge based on profits earned because of the advice you provided?

An adviser will normally charge for the time spent organising a pension/investment portfolio (like an accountant/solicitor) and there would be a charge for an annual review of the portfolio.  We have an online system where clients can check the valuation 24/7 and if they have any concerns they can contact us between reviews.
The charge for the ongoing annual reviews are normally based on a (very small) percentage of the fund value (typically 0.5%) so there is a vested interest in growing the client's fund on an ongoing basis.
The other charges taken out of pensions have been exaggerated by some earlier in the thread.  The only other charge taken from the pension portfolios I would have any involvement in would be an annual management charge levied by the fund manager (1 to 2%).
There has been some confusion on different types of pension with Muppet talking about pension funds being in deficit, these are typically very large occupational schemes where fund charges may be higher.  These are the pensions where trustees, solicitors etc. are involved.  These pensions typically give the employee a certain benefit at retirement and it is the employer who takes the risks and pays the charges.  I am talking from my experience in the North, things may be different in the South.

As I have been described as a risk averse person my worry would be that an advisor would not treat the money as if it were their own. While there are incentives for you to grow the investment, is there a disincentive or penalty if value falls? This could be done by way of paying back performance related bonus from the previous year? I met an "independent" advisor once and God help anyone with money who trusted him. To get out of the meeting I told him I'd invest and rang him an hour later and told him I'd changed my mind.

As an advisor you say it would be impossible for you to have foreseen the crash but that you would advise anyone close to retirement to not hold money in equity. Did you advise anyone who was due to retire in 2010 to sell their shares in Irish Banks in 2005?

I think in your case there is little incentive to use an adviser as you have said you woudl go into low risk gilts etc. In general there is little you can do to "grow" these above the headline return rate, they pretty much do what they say on the tin.

On the second question, without answering for Mackers, I would say it depends what your adviser has been asked to do. If he is specifically advising on strategy, i.e. stock market  good longterm, then move into gilts, I would imagine that five years pre retirement  you woudl have been advised to get out of most equities. However, if you are asking him specifically on whether to invest in a particular share or class of shares (Irish Bankls) , then you are into stockbroker/investor analyst territory and there is very different regulations and structures in place.

As Seafoid said earlier, the way the Rating Agencies came out of the whole fiasco  2008-12 is an absolute disgrace.
It was even worse because the run up to the crash saw a lot of prudent margins stripped out of banks and bet on asset prices with the reassurance that transparency and the vigilant eyes of the ratings agencies would keep risk under control.
And the margins would have saved a lot of banks. Because the ratings agencies did f**k all.
Most if not all of those building societies that were demutualised in the 90s collapsed.

AIB sold their headquarters and bet the proceeds on house prices. You couldn't make it up.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: mackers on October 31, 2014, 02:59:31 PM
Quote from: TabClear on October 31, 2014, 01:08:51 PM
Quote from: mikehunt on October 31, 2014, 12:30:26 PM
Quote from: mackers on October 31, 2014, 12:11:23 PM
Quote from: mikehunt on October 31, 2014, 11:10:53 AM
How do your charge your clients?

i) a fixed rate 
ii) charge as a percentage of the investment or
iii) charge based on profits earned because of the advice you provided?

An adviser will normally charge for the time spent organising a pension/investment portfolio (like an accountant/solicitor) and there would be a charge for an annual review of the portfolio.  We have an online system where clients can check the valuation 24/7 and if they have any concerns they can contact us between reviews.
The charge for the ongoing annual reviews are normally based on a (very small) percentage of the fund value (typically 0.5%) so there is a vested interest in growing the client's fund on an ongoing basis.
The other charges taken out of pensions have been exaggerated by some earlier in the thread.  The only other charge taken from the pension portfolios I would have any involvement in would be an annual management charge levied by the fund manager (1 to 2%).
There has been some confusion on different types of pension with Muppet talking about pension funds being in deficit, these are typically very large occupational schemes where fund charges may be higher.  These are the pensions where trustees, solicitors etc. are involved.  These pensions typically give the employee a certain benefit at retirement and it is the employer who takes the risks and pays the charges.  I am talking from my experience in the North, things may be different in the South.

As I have been described as a risk averse person my worry would be that an advisor would not treat the money as if it were their own. While there are incentives for you to grow the investment, is there a disincentive or penalty if value falls? This could be done by way of paying back performance related bonus from the previous year? I met an "independent" advisor once and God help anyone with money who trusted him. To get out of the meeting I told him I'd invest and rang him an hour later and told him I'd changed my mind.

As an advisor you say it would be impossible for you to have foreseen the crash but that you would advise anyone close to retirement to not hold money in equity. Did you advise anyone who was due to retire in 2010 to sell their shares in Irish Banks in 2005?

I think in your case there is little incentive to use an adviser as you have said you woudl go into low risk gilts etc. In general there is little you can do to "grow" these above the headline return rate, they pretty much do what they say on the tin.

On the second question, without answering for Mackers, I would say it depends what your adviser has been asked to do. If he is specifically advising on strategy, i.e. stock market  good longterm, then move into gilts, I would imagine that five years pre retirement  you woudl have been advised to get out of most equities. However, if you are asking him specifically on whether to invest in a particular share or class of shares (Irish Bankls) , then you are into stockbroker/investor analyst territory and there is very different regulations and structures in place.

As Seafoid said earlier, the way the Rating Agencies came out of the whole fiasco  2008-12 is an absolute disgrace.
Tab, you can answer for me any time as you're right.  A financial adviser is not a fund manager and is not authorised to advise on individual stocks.  Mike, just because you met a bad financial adviser once doesn't mean the whole industry is rotten, there are good and bad advisers in the same way as there is good and bad solicitors/accountants/mechanics.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on October 31, 2014, 03:57:37 PM
Quote from: mikehunt on October 31, 2014, 01:01:34 PM
Quote from: seafoid on October 31, 2014, 12:48:59 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on October 31, 2014, 12:40:52 PM
Quote from: MuppetThe regulator had no idea of the state of the banks. Lenihan had nothing to base his judgement on.
That was the biggest problem.

This.  Lenihan was given a suicide pass with a split second to release the ball. Apart from the failures over the years there was a period of a year or so before the guarantee when clouds were gathering and at that stage an accurate picture should have been built up so that a proper decision could be made.

On an aside, there wasn't a proper picture of the banks yet their auditors etc escaped any sanction whatsoever. Did the accounts that they signed represent a true and fair view of the value of banks where the shareholders lost all or most of their money?
Auditing for all its benefits is a joke in one very important respect. They just can't deal with tail risk. This is really serious when economic conditions are volatile. And 2008 was all about tail risk- that 9 out of 10 cats were actually wrong and that the disaster was imminent.

The same goes for the rating agencies BTW.
No point in relying on gatekeepers who know nothing.
Auditors will charge you to tell you your accounts are correct. When it is revealed that your accounts are in fact incorrect and that massive fraud has taken place an auditor will come in and charge for telling you where you went wrong and what to do about it. Auditor of misleading accounts is replaced by another auditor and the revolving door process continues as the big auditors move from auditor to advisor and back to auditor.

I find the auditing process a waste of time anyway as it looks to the past and not to the future. It's rare for an auditor to uncover a massive scandal. It is in their interest to keep their big clients happy so there is a confilct of interest in the whole process from the very start. They are supposed to be independent but yet charge a fee for this "independence".

Lots of accounts are guesses at the best of times. A true and fair view is very hard at times like these when the economic outlook is so uncertain.
It is very hard for finance professionals to admit they have no idea what is going to happen.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Mike Sheehy on November 01, 2014, 12:30:00 AM
Quote from: seafoid on October 31, 2014, 03:57:37 PM
Quote from: mikehunt on October 31, 2014, 01:01:34 PM
Quote from: seafoid on October 31, 2014, 12:48:59 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on October 31, 2014, 12:40:52 PM
Quote from: MuppetThe regulator had no idea of the state of the banks. Lenihan had nothing to base his judgement on.
That was the biggest problem.

This.  Lenihan was given a suicide pass with a split second to release the ball. Apart from the failures over the years there was a period of a year or so before the guarantee when clouds were gathering and at that stage an accurate picture should have been built up so that a proper decision could be made.

On an aside, there wasn't a proper picture of the banks yet their auditors etc escaped any sanction whatsoever. Did the accounts that they signed represent a true and fair view of the value of banks where the shareholders lost all or most of their money?
Auditing for all its benefits is a joke in one very important respect. They just can't deal with tail risk. This is really serious when economic conditions are volatile. And 2008 was all about tail risk- that 9 out of 10 cats were actually wrong and that the disaster was imminent.

The same goes for the rating agencies BTW.
No point in relying on gatekeepers who know nothing.
Auditors will charge you to tell you your accounts are correct. When it is revealed that your accounts are in fact incorrect and that massive fraud has taken place an auditor will come in and charge for telling you where you went wrong and what to do about it. Auditor of misleading accounts is replaced by another auditor and the revolving door process continues as the big auditors move from auditor to advisor and back to auditor.

I find the auditing process a waste of time anyway as it looks to the past and not to the future. It's rare for an auditor to uncover a massive scandal. It is in their interest to keep their big clients happy so there is a confilct of interest in the whole process from the very start. They are supposed to be independent but yet charge a fee for this "independence".

Lots of accounts are guesses at the best of times. A true and fair view is very hard at times like these when the economic outlook is so uncertain.
It is very hard for finance professionals to admit they have no idea what is going to happen.

So who does know what is going to happen...Martin Wolf ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on November 03, 2014, 12:31:27 PM
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/reading-between-the-lines-of-ecb-letter-to-brian-lenihan-1.1983847?page=1 (http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/reading-between-the-lines-of-ecb-letter-to-brian-lenihan-1.1983847?page=1)

There were indications during the week that a letter between European Central Bank (ECB) president Jean-Claude Trichet and former finance minister Brian Lenihan in the run-up to Ireland's bailout in November 2010 might be published.

It is no secret Trichet and the ECB exerted serious pressure on the Government to accept a bailout, but the precise language and contentions in the letter will arouse much interest, given the enormity of what was at stake.

It is a letter which will surely loom large in historic accounts of this period, shedding light on the pressure placed on the Government by the ECB's power to withdraw emergency funding from Irish banks.

The challenge in such historical analysis will be to assess how much weight should be attached to such correspondence. It will be interesting to see if the language employed approximates to a loaded gun: did the ECB step outside its mandate? Did Trichet threaten, directly or indirectly, to allow Irish banks to go to the wall?

These are important questions, but so too are the broader reasons for the scale of the Irish boom and bust. Trichet is the same ECB president who in Dublin in May 2004 heralded Ireland as a "model for the millions of new citizens of the European Union". This was the same ECB that did not seem unduly concerned about lack of corporate and financial regulation in Ireland. How much was it at fault?
In 1997, Irish banks were funded entirely by Irish deposits, but by 2005 most of their funding came from abroad and could be easily removed. Economist Morgan Kelly has highlighted that between 2000 and 2008 banks found they could borrow almost any amount on international markets without security, at rates only slightly above central bank rates:

"This led to an international lending boom where bank lending in most European economies rose to around 100 per cent of national income. In Ireland, lending rose from 60 to nearly 200 per cent and most of this was funded by borrowing from overseas banks. Everything that happened in Ireland between 2000 and 2008 stems from this simple fact."

'A Ponzi scheme'

American financial journalist Michael Lewis characterised what was going on as in effect "a Ponzi scheme". How much of that was facilitated by the ECB? Will a focus on the ECB skew the apportioning of responsibility? What about other, Irish, culprits? Personal debt as a percentage of disposable income increased in Ireland from 89 per cent to 140 per cent between 1996 and 2006; was this the fault of borrowers or lenders?

Crucially, there has been no comprehensive official inquiry into the failings of the banks and no accountability with regard to their practices, which means the public narrative about what actually happened has remained vague and incomplete. So it is not only the European dimension to this that needs excavation.

The three reports commissioned by the Government into the collapse of the economy suggested that the burden of responsibility was broad, with insufficient surveillance, warnings not heeded and, in the words of the report of the Commission of Investigation into the Banking Sector, a property-centred "national speculative mania ... As in most manias, those caught up in it could believe and have trust in extraordinary things."

That contention raises even more questions; it seems a trite exaggeration that exacerbates the tendency towards pseudo-historical analysis.

Was this notion of collective responsibility used to conveniently distract from the failures of leadership and oversight? Brian Lenihan asserted in 2008, "we decided as a people collectively to have this property boom. That was a collective decision we took as a people."

Likewise, in January 2012 in Switzerland, Taoiseach Enda Kenny maintained, "What happened in our country was that people went mad borrowing." Surely these were simplifications to the point of distortion of reality.

People did not collectively decide to "have" a property boom. A relatively small number were able to skew the market through speculation, reckless lending, lack of regulation and a refusal to reduce the inflation of the property market.

Many were encouraged to borrow beyond their means or panicked into buying through warnings that if they did not move with speed they would fail to get a foot on a much vaunted property ladder. So the idea that "we" moved from being the Most Oppressed People Ever to the Most Speculative People Ever seems hollow and lazy.

Leading Irish sociologist Tom Inglis has edited a new book, Are the Irish Different? He makes the point that "it is very easy to recreate myths about the Irish and make them into a collectively responsible group". The danger of this approach, he argues, is that it "contaminates rigorous, scientific analysis".

Knowing precisely how the ECB treated Ireland before and at the outset of the bailout would contribute significantly to such analysis.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on November 03, 2014, 01:00:15 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 03, 2014, 12:31:27 PM
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/reading-between-the-lines-of-ecb-letter-to-brian-lenihan-1.1983847?page=1 (http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/reading-between-the-lines-of-ecb-letter-to-brian-lenihan-1.1983847?page=1)

There were indications during the week that a letter between European Central Bank (ECB) president Jean-Claude Trichet and former finance minister Brian Lenihan in the run-up to Ireland's bailout in November 2010 might be published.

It is no secret Trichet and the ECB exerted serious pressure on the Government to accept a bailout, but the precise language and contentions in the letter will arouse much interest, given the enormity of what was at stake.

It is a letter which will surely loom large in historic accounts of this period, shedding light on the pressure placed on the Government by the ECB's power to withdraw emergency funding from Irish banks.

The challenge in such historical analysis will be to assess how much weight should be attached to such correspondence. It will be interesting to see if the language employed approximates to a loaded gun: did the ECB step outside its mandate? Did Trichet threaten, directly or indirectly, to allow Irish banks to go to the wall?

These are important questions, but so too are the broader reasons for the scale of the Irish boom and bust. Trichet is the same ECB president who in Dublin in May 2004 heralded Ireland as a "model for the millions of new citizens of the European Union". This was the same ECB that did not seem unduly concerned about lack of corporate and financial regulation in Ireland. How much was it at fault?
In 1997, Irish banks were funded entirely by Irish deposits, but by 2005 most of their funding came from abroad and could be easily removed. Economist Morgan Kelly has highlighted that between 2000 and 2008 banks found they could borrow almost any amount on international markets without security, at rates only slightly above central bank rates:

"This led to an international lending boom where bank lending in most European economies rose to around 100 per cent of national income. In Ireland, lending rose from 60 to nearly 200 per cent and most of this was funded by borrowing from overseas banks. Everything that happened in Ireland between 2000 and 2008 stems from this simple fact."

'A Ponzi scheme'

American financial journalist Michael Lewis characterised what was going on as in effect "a Ponzi scheme". How much of that was facilitated by the ECB? Will a focus on the ECB skew the apportioning of responsibility? What about other, Irish, culprits? Personal debt as a percentage of disposable income increased in Ireland from 89 per cent to 140 per cent between 1996 and 2006; was this the fault of borrowers or lenders?

Crucially, there has been no comprehensive official inquiry into the failings of the banks and no accountability with regard to their practices, which means the public narrative about what actually happened has remained vague and incomplete. So it is not only the European dimension to this that needs excavation.

The three reports commissioned by the Government into the collapse of the economy suggested that the burden of responsibility was broad, with insufficient surveillance, warnings not heeded and, in the words of the report of the Commission of Investigation into the Banking Sector, a property-centred "national speculative mania ... As in most manias, those caught up in it could believe and have trust in extraordinary things."

That contention raises even more questions; it seems a trite exaggeration that exacerbates the tendency towards pseudo-historical analysis.

Was this notion of collective responsibility used to conveniently distract from the failures of leadership and oversight? Brian Lenihan asserted in 2008, "we decided as a people collectively to have this property boom. That was a collective decision we took as a people."

Likewise, in January 2012 in Switzerland, Taoiseach Enda Kenny maintained, "What happened in our country was that people went mad borrowing." Surely these were simplifications to the point of distortion of reality.

People did not collectively decide to "have" a property boom. A relatively small number were able to skew the market through speculation, reckless lending, lack of regulation and a refusal to reduce the inflation of the property market.

Many were encouraged to borrow beyond their means or panicked into buying through warnings that if they did not move with speed they would fail to get a foot on a much vaunted property ladder. So the idea that "we" moved from being the Most Oppressed People Ever to the Most Speculative People Ever seems hollow and lazy.

Leading Irish sociologist Tom Inglis has edited a new book, Are the Irish Different? He makes the point that "it is very easy to recreate myths about the Irish and make them into a collectively responsible group". The danger of this approach, he argues, is that it "contaminates rigorous, scientific analysis".

Knowing precisely how the ECB treated Ireland before and at the outset of the bailout would contribute significantly to such analysis.

I think what Trichet said to Lenihan in September 2008 before the guarantee is probably more important.
The ECB were not going to burn bondholders in 2010. they would have been better off doing it in hindsight but it was not on the agenda.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on November 03, 2014, 01:09:41 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 03, 2014, 01:00:15 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 03, 2014, 12:31:27 PM
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/reading-between-the-lines-of-ecb-letter-to-brian-lenihan-1.1983847?page=1 (http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/reading-between-the-lines-of-ecb-letter-to-brian-lenihan-1.1983847?page=1)

There were indications during the week that a letter between European Central Bank (ECB) president Jean-Claude Trichet and former finance minister Brian Lenihan in the run-up to Ireland's bailout in November 2010 might be published.

It is no secret Trichet and the ECB exerted serious pressure on the Government to accept a bailout, but the precise language and contentions in the letter will arouse much interest, given the enormity of what was at stake.

It is a letter which will surely loom large in historic accounts of this period, shedding light on the pressure placed on the Government by the ECB's power to withdraw emergency funding from Irish banks.

The challenge in such historical analysis will be to assess how much weight should be attached to such correspondence. It will be interesting to see if the language employed approximates to a loaded gun: did the ECB step outside its mandate? Did Trichet threaten, directly or indirectly, to allow Irish banks to go to the wall?

These are important questions, but so too are the broader reasons for the scale of the Irish boom and bust. Trichet is the same ECB president who in Dublin in May 2004 heralded Ireland as a "model for the millions of new citizens of the European Union". This was the same ECB that did not seem unduly concerned about lack of corporate and financial regulation in Ireland. How much was it at fault?
In 1997, Irish banks were funded entirely by Irish deposits, but by 2005 most of their funding came from abroad and could be easily removed. Economist Morgan Kelly has highlighted that between 2000 and 2008 banks found they could borrow almost any amount on international markets without security, at rates only slightly above central bank rates:

"This led to an international lending boom where bank lending in most European economies rose to around 100 per cent of national income. In Ireland, lending rose from 60 to nearly 200 per cent and most of this was funded by borrowing from overseas banks. Everything that happened in Ireland between 2000 and 2008 stems from this simple fact."

'A Ponzi scheme'

American financial journalist Michael Lewis characterised what was going on as in effect "a Ponzi scheme". How much of that was facilitated by the ECB? Will a focus on the ECB skew the apportioning of responsibility? What about other, Irish, culprits? Personal debt as a percentage of disposable income increased in Ireland from 89 per cent to 140 per cent between 1996 and 2006; was this the fault of borrowers or lenders?

Crucially, there has been no comprehensive official inquiry into the failings of the banks and no accountability with regard to their practices, which means the public narrative about what actually happened has remained vague and incomplete. So it is not only the European dimension to this that needs excavation.

The three reports commissioned by the Government into the collapse of the economy suggested that the burden of responsibility was broad, with insufficient surveillance, warnings not heeded and, in the words of the report of the Commission of Investigation into the Banking Sector, a property-centred "national speculative mania ... As in most manias, those caught up in it could believe and have trust in extraordinary things."

That contention raises even more questions; it seems a trite exaggeration that exacerbates the tendency towards pseudo-historical analysis.

Was this notion of collective responsibility used to conveniently distract from the failures of leadership and oversight? Brian Lenihan asserted in 2008, "we decided as a people collectively to have this property boom. That was a collective decision we took as a people."

Likewise, in January 2012 in Switzerland, Taoiseach Enda Kenny maintained, "What happened in our country was that people went mad borrowing." Surely these were simplifications to the point of distortion of reality.

People did not collectively decide to "have" a property boom. A relatively small number were able to skew the market through speculation, reckless lending, lack of regulation and a refusal to reduce the inflation of the property market.

Many were encouraged to borrow beyond their means or panicked into buying through warnings that if they did not move with speed they would fail to get a foot on a much vaunted property ladder. So the idea that "we" moved from being the Most Oppressed People Ever to the Most Speculative People Ever seems hollow and lazy.

Leading Irish sociologist Tom Inglis has edited a new book, Are the Irish Different? He makes the point that "it is very easy to recreate myths about the Irish and make them into a collectively responsible group". The danger of this approach, he argues, is that it "contaminates rigorous, scientific analysis".

Knowing precisely how the ECB treated Ireland before and at the outset of the bailout would contribute significantly to such analysis.

I think what Trichet said to Lenihan in September 2008 before the guarantee is probably more important.
The ECB were not going to burn bondholders in 2010. they would have been better off doing it in hindsight but it was not on the agenda.

Couldn't agree more.

The 2010 letter, along with Honohan's appearance on RTE the day before, was about removing any leverage in the negotiations.

The stat about the banks in 1997 is interesting. Even now, despite the crash, we want banks to lend, while we also want them to re-capitalise and operate to higher standards, but no question of going back to only lending what they have.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on November 03, 2014, 01:28:47 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 03, 2014, 01:09:41 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 03, 2014, 01:00:15 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 03, 2014, 12:31:27 PM
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/reading-between-the-lines-of-ecb-letter-to-brian-lenihan-1.1983847?page=1 (http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/reading-between-the-lines-of-ecb-letter-to-brian-lenihan-1.1983847?page=1)

There were indications during the week that a letter between European Central Bank (ECB) president Jean-Claude Trichet and former finance minister Brian Lenihan in the run-up to Ireland's bailout in November 2010 might be published.

It is no secret Trichet and the ECB exerted serious pressure on the Government to accept a bailout, but the precise language and contentions in the letter will arouse much interest, given the enormity of what was at stake.

It is a letter which will surely loom large in historic accounts of this period, shedding light on the pressure placed on the Government by the ECB's power to withdraw emergency funding from Irish banks.

The challenge in such historical analysis will be to assess how much weight should be attached to such correspondence. It will be interesting to see if the language employed approximates to a loaded gun: did the ECB step outside its mandate? Did Trichet threaten, directly or indirectly, to allow Irish banks to go to the wall?

These are important questions, but so too are the broader reasons for the scale of the Irish boom and bust. Trichet is the same ECB president who in Dublin in May 2004 heralded Ireland as a "model for the millions of new citizens of the European Union". This was the same ECB that did not seem unduly concerned about lack of corporate and financial regulation in Ireland. How much was it at fault?
In 1997, Irish banks were funded entirely by Irish deposits, but by 2005 most of their funding came from abroad and could be easily removed. Economist Morgan Kelly has highlighted that between 2000 and 2008 banks found they could borrow almost any amount on international markets without security, at rates only slightly above central bank rates:

"This led to an international lending boom where bank lending in most European economies rose to around 100 per cent of national income. In Ireland, lending rose from 60 to nearly 200 per cent and most of this was funded by borrowing from overseas banks. Everything that happened in Ireland between 2000 and 2008 stems from this simple fact."

'A Ponzi scheme'

American financial journalist Michael Lewis characterised what was going on as in effect "a Ponzi scheme". How much of that was facilitated by the ECB? Will a focus on the ECB skew the apportioning of responsibility? What about other, Irish, culprits? Personal debt as a percentage of disposable income increased in Ireland from 89 per cent to 140 per cent between 1996 and 2006; was this the fault of borrowers or lenders?

Crucially, there has been no comprehensive official inquiry into the failings of the banks and no accountability with regard to their practices, which means the public narrative about what actually happened has remained vague and incomplete. So it is not only the European dimension to this that needs excavation.

The three reports commissioned by the Government into the collapse of the economy suggested that the burden of responsibility was broad, with insufficient surveillance, warnings not heeded and, in the words of the report of the Commission of Investigation into the Banking Sector, a property-centred "national speculative mania ... As in most manias, those caught up in it could believe and have trust in extraordinary things."

That contention raises even more questions; it seems a trite exaggeration that exacerbates the tendency towards pseudo-historical analysis.

Was this notion of collective responsibility used to conveniently distract from the failures of leadership and oversight? Brian Lenihan asserted in 2008, "we decided as a people collectively to have this property boom. That was a collective decision we took as a people."

Likewise, in January 2012 in Switzerland, Taoiseach Enda Kenny maintained, "What happened in our country was that people went mad borrowing." Surely these were simplifications to the point of distortion of reality.

People did not collectively decide to "have" a property boom. A relatively small number were able to skew the market through speculation, reckless lending, lack of regulation and a refusal to reduce the inflation of the property market.

Many were encouraged to borrow beyond their means or panicked into buying through warnings that if they did not move with speed they would fail to get a foot on a much vaunted property ladder. So the idea that "we" moved from being the Most Oppressed People Ever to the Most Speculative People Ever seems hollow and lazy.

Leading Irish sociologist Tom Inglis has edited a new book, Are the Irish Different? He makes the point that "it is very easy to recreate myths about the Irish and make them into a collectively responsible group". The danger of this approach, he argues, is that it "contaminates rigorous, scientific analysis".

Knowing precisely how the ECB treated Ireland before and at the outset of the bailout would contribute significantly to such analysis.

I think what Trichet said to Lenihan in September 2008 before the guarantee is probably more important.
The ECB were not going to burn bondholders in 2010. they would have been better off doing it in hindsight but it was not on the agenda.

Couldn't agree more.

The 2010 letter, along with Honohan's appearance on RTE the day before, was about removing any leverage in the negotiations.

The stat about the banks in 1997 is interesting. Even now, despite the crash, we want banks to lend, while we also want them to re-capitalise and operate to higher standards, but no question of going back to only lending what they have.

House prices are still too high. Especially given the outlook for pay rises.
And the risk of interest rates going up if the ECB can't control the macro situation.

The problem with funding high house prices with stuff other than deposits is that
international capital will leave at the first sign of danger. Like they did the last time.

There is no going back to the good days when there was a healthy financial ecology of 6 building societies and 4 or 5 banks.
Now there are 3 banks and they are all on a shaky scraw. It's going to take a long time to come down from the tiger years.

I was looking at Credit Suisse the other day. It's like a template for the problems of modern banks that grew too fast, too soon.

https://www.credit-suisse.com/ch/en/about-us/investor-relations/events/financial-calendar.html#tab_2
Look at Second quarter 2014 results down at the bottom (July 22 2014)

Net margin is on page 13. It is 27 basis points. Or 0.27%.
Strategy is on page 25. they are focusing on "high margin" business to generate profits that they can no longer make on their assets because the margins are 20% of what they were in 2005.
They are taking big risks just to stand still.
What happens if the credit market melts down ?

If you want to see how bad it is have a look at what they were telling punters in 2005
The May 09 2005 presentation is very interesting.

There is an awful lot of Hail Mary content in an awful lot of bank projections now

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on November 03, 2014, 09:19:11 PM
http://www.villagemagazine.ie/index.php/2014/10/economic-hopium-for-the-masses/ (http://www.villagemagazine.ie/index.php/2014/10/economic-hopium-for-the-masses/)

Consider our national accounts. Ireland was one of the first countries in the EU to switch from the the ESA 95 to the ESA 2010 accounting framework back in Q1 2014. This means that we started including estimated illegal economic activities (sales of drugs, stolen goods, prostitution etc) as a part of our official GDP, GNP, Gross National Income and domestic demand. We also reclassified R&D spending by companies, including Multinationals (MNCs), and state enterprises, as investment. Under previous standards, R&D spending was treated as a business cost, not adding to the economic activity until it generated actual returns. Now, R&D is labelled as investment and thus counts fully for national income irrespective of whether it produces anything meaningful in the end or is simply written off as a loss.

According to the EU Commission, just three companies account for almost 70% of all R&D 'investment' in Ireland: Accenture (31%), Covidien (24%) and Seagate Technology (15%). So R&D inclusion simply introduced more MNC-driven statistical noise into our aggregate figures. The effect of these accounting changes was not immaterial. Overnight, 2013's GDP was boosted by €10.6 billion or a whopping 6.5 percent. With it, the entire informational content of the national accounts has become unprecedentedly muddied. As actual Government debt continued to climb, the debt-to-GDP ratio fell from 123.7 percent to 116.1 percent. The Government deficit shrank from 7.2 percent to 6.7 percent. Thanks to statistical gimmickry, we were made richer than before without adding a single cent to our actual purses.


Many of you will be much relieved to know that any money you spend on dope, hookers or stolen goods, now counts towards reducing the Government debt to GDP ratio and thus helps our credit rating.

For the rest of you, sorry you had to read this and Tony Fearon will be hearing your confession later at www.urasinr.hell  Enjoy!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Hereiam on November 04, 2014, 09:39:46 AM
Muppet the whole thing is one big accounting lie from start to finish. If the governments are at it no wonder the large businesses are at it. Tesco is the latest example of the books been cooked to save face. I laugh when these companies release their accounts to public saying that profits are up blah blah, when any person with a bit of sense knows its all lies to keep the share holders happy.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: TabClear on November 04, 2014, 04:41:50 PM
Quote from: Hereiam on November 04, 2014, 09:39:46 AM
Muppet the whole thing is one big accounting lie from start to finish. If the governments are at it no wonder the large businesses are at it. Tesco is the latest example of the books been cooked to save face. I laugh when these companies release their accounts to public saying that profits are up blah blah, when any person with a bit of sense knows its all lies to keep the share holders happy.

Protect bonuses might be closer to the mark!

As far as I am concerned the issue here has to lie with auditors. Our auditors are one of the big four and I know that they sign off on our books, despite us using a different accounting treatment for one of our major revenue lines than our direct peer in the UK. Our peer uses the same big four firm and their office signs off that the alternative treatment is appropriate. Means the two sets of accounts look completely different despite the underlying business being practically identical. Go figure,

And before anyone starts quoting about directors discretion, subjectivity, materiality etc, i am well aware of the accounting guidelines and regulations. I just happen to think that there is way too much discretion allowed by auditors and they are not held to account enough. Ultimately, in my experience they will generally try to accommodate their clients to ensure that the client does not go and find another auditor who will.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on November 04, 2014, 08:40:26 PM
http://en.europeonline-magazine.eu/german-retail-bank-announces-negative-interest-rates_361835.html (http://en.europeonline-magazine.eu/german-retail-bank-announces-negative-interest-rates_361835.html)

Berlin (dpa) - A German retail bank announced Wednesday negative interest rates for big deposits, meaning it will charge 0.25 per cent to keep the customer's money if an account goes over 500,000 euros (635,000 dollars).

Last year, the European Central Bank (ECB) began imposing negative interest rates on big banks that lodge funds with it overnight, but this is believed to be the first time in Germany that rates for private customers have gone negative.

Skatbank, a small lender based in the eastern German town of Altenburg, said the negative rate would begin next month. A spokesman said that currently, Skatbank, which has 15,000 customers, advertises zero per cent for any part of a deposit over 500,000 euros.

Interest rates in Germany have tumbled to near zero as the ECB tries to revive the sluggish eurozone economy with cheap loans, so far without any great success.

While financial markets welcome cheap money, wealthy Germans often grumble at the lack of profitable ways to invest money.

An internet portal, Verivox, said some commercial banks had begun imposing negative rates on business customers several weeks ago.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on December 17, 2014, 06:49:51 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/1217/667348-banking-inquiry/ (http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/1217/667348-banking-inquiry/)

Peter Nyberg has told the Banking Inquiry that staff were sanctioned if they questioned the prevailing view in banks during the Celtic Tiger.

Mr Nyberg, who was commissioned by the Government to write a report on the industry following its collapse, was speaking at the inquiry's first day of hearings.

He said he formed this view from interviews he conducted with people who worked in banks, and said that sanctions came in the form of professional advancement and remuneration.

He said if an auditor found a problem it had to raise it with a bank and if the problem was not addressed the auditor would have to resign.

No auditors did resign, he stated.

He said if the problems found by auditors were made public it would have resulted in big problems for banks.

Mr Nyberg added that there were warnings from Department of Finance staff, but they were not very strong and not very insistent.

They were very general warnings about overheating, he said.

Mr Nyberg said he interviewed 140 people for his report but did not speak with the European Central Bank. Any issue which could become subject to a Garda investigation was also not examined in his report, he added.

The Finnish banking expert said he had powers of compelability as part of his investigation, but did not have to use them.  He said people were very co-operative.

He said his report was about the why and not the who. He was not required to name names and he decided not to. It was easier to get institutions when reputations were not under threat, he stated.

It was also easier to avoid legal challenges and the risk of redactions was lessened, he added.

The former IMF economist told Finance Committee members that he believed it was unlikely anything new would emerge from the Banking Inquiry.

However he added that it was important to ensure a similar crisis does not happen again.

The former IMF economist said his investigation understood the bank guarantee decision but did not condone it, adding that it was the culmination of mistakes made previously.

He said the guarantee decision came at the end of a long period after everyone judging risk had told each other and the Government that the banks were solvent and had no problems.

Efforts were made at the last minute, especially in the Department of Finance, to resolve the issues in an orderly manner, but that was not possible.

Sinn Féin's finance spokesman Pearse Doherty asked Mr Nyberg if there was scope for options other than the bank guarantee.

Mr Nyberg said the legal basis for more sophisticated solutions was not there and so nothing could be done on that basis. 

During the night, there were discussions on alternatives -  a shorter guarantee or reducing the scope - but for various reasons, those alternatives were not considered realistic, he told the committee.

In the end, the problems were bigger than foreseen and the efficiency of measures was reduced, he stated. 

Mr Nyberg said the real estate mania in Ireland was unlikely to have resulted in a soft landing, even without the impact of the liquidity crisis in the US.

When asked what role the media played in blowing up the bubble, he said they reported positively on banks and the real estate market, which did have an effect.

Overall Mr Nyberg said the responsibility for the mistakes was obvious - it lay with directors, and senior and junior staff in the banks.

But he added that borrowers were also responsible for debt.

Mr Nyberg also said it was not fair to say we all partied, people just lived a little better than they otherwise would have done.

Fine Gael Senator Michael D'Arcy asked how Mr Nyberg thought the Irish banks were at judging risk.

The banking expert laughed and said he could not answer on the basis of his Commission's report, but he added that the Irish institutions were pretty good at misjudging risk.


Pearse Doherty asked if the crisis was essentially homegrown. Mr Nyberg said it was.

He said the Financial regulator should have been looking at the concentration of credit and how the risk mitigation procedures were not working. 

Mr Nuberg said the Finance Department began to think of a resolution regime - how to wind up a bank - after Northern Rock in 2007.

But he said other institutions did not think it was a good idea because they thought the banks were solvent and that banks could be taken over by Government, he added.

If there had been a common will among politicians of an early resolutions regime it would have been possible to introduce, he said.

The committee will resume with Robert Wright, who wrote a report on the Department of Finance.

Opening today's Inquiry, committee chairman Ciarán Lynch said that "the dark cloud of the banking and financial crisis still lingers over every home in Ireland".

Deputy Lynch said the Inquiry's task is to shed light on how the collapse happened and to ensure its dark shadow never falls on our country again.

He said the purpose of the Inquiry is to "identify and to learn from previous mistakes and to ensure that, as far as is possible, we do not create the circumstances which would lead to a similar disaster in the future".

The committee has the power to compel written and oral evidence, and Mr Lynch said there will be witness testimony, oral evidence, transcripts, detailed records - all presented in public.

The first phase of the inquiry will hear testimony from 30 witnesses and will set the context for the financial crash.

In April, the second phase of the process will hear from bankers, civil servants, politicians and regulators.

The inquiry is expected to conclude by November next year.

It will be the first time many of the key players will be questioned in public. 

While the inquiry will be highly restricted in making adverse findings against individuals, hearing from those who have remained silent is likely to be its biggest contribution.

European Commission willing to attend Inquiry

Meanwhile, the European Commission has contacted the Banking Inquiry and told it that it is willing to provide witnesses to hearings, RTÉ News has learned. 

The development comes after it emerged that the President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, has ruled out participating in the hearings.

It is not yet clear who from the European Commission will appear at the hearings.

It is also understood that the International Monetary Fund has indicated that it will co-operate with the context phase of the Banking Inquiry which will examine the background to the collapse.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on December 17, 2014, 07:02:46 PM
Pearse Doherty asked if the crisis was essentially homegrown. Mr Nyberg said it was.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2bd925be-0bdb-11e3-8840-00144feabdc0.html

The truth is more banal: the real cause of the expansion that precedes the typical financial crisis is usually a flood of cheap (or relatively cheap) credit, often from abroad. Phase Two of a financial crisis is the downfall itself. It is the moment when everyone realises the emperor is naked; to put it another way, the tide of easy money recedes for some reason, and suddenly the current account deficits, the poverty of investment returns and the fragility of indebted corporations and the banks that lent to them are exposed to view. Phase Three is when ministers and central bank governors survey the wreckage of a once-vibrant economy and try to work out how to rebuild it.

so yeah the banks went nuts and were incompetent but without cheap euro funds the bust would have been much smaller.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on December 18, 2014, 05:42:50 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/1218/667600-banking-inquiry/ (http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/1218/667600-banking-inquiry/)

Former Canadian deputy finance minister Rob Wright has appeared before the Oireachtas Inquiry into the Banking Crisis on the second day of its hearings.

He was the author of a critical report into the Department of Finance's role in the crisis.

Mr Wright told the inquiry that it was startling that there was very little consistent written advice in the department other than annual memoranda to Cabinet.

He said the Government substantially exceeded this advice in the Budget.


Mr Wright also said the budgetary process was overwhelmed by programmes for government and social partnership.

He said the economy was clearly overheating and to have spending increase by 12% per year was not good.

Mr Wright said the department needed to strengthen its written record of advice.

The inquiry has concluded today's hearing and will return in 2015.

Mr Wright earlier said he would have pushed the red button in the department if he had been there.

He said it could have reined in spending and reined in the construction sector.

It was very dangerous when spending was ramping up that dramatically in an overheating economy.

Mr Wright said there should have been a stronger relationship with the Financial Regulator.

He said he found it incredible that Department of Finance staff went home on Budget night to find out what was in it.


Mr Wright said the department's level of economists was very low by international standards and he was particularly surprised by the low level of those with a Masters in Economics.

He recommended the department substantially increase its number of economists and tax advisers.

Independent Senator Sean Barrett pointed out that at the time of Mr Wright's report, there were only 39 senior economists out of a staff of 500 in the department.

Mr Wright recommended doubling the number of staff with MAs and said the department had not quite done that.

Around 100 people in the department now have an economic background, with almost half at MA level, out of a reduced staff of 300.

He also recommended that the department urgently second expertise, and said it had done so.

Mr Wright also recommended modernising in terms of structure and communication. He said there had been a lot of progress, and there was now much stronger engagement with the EU and that had added rigour.

However, he said less progress had been made in energising the Irish system to help public servants to do their job.

Mr Wright criticised social partnership for letting public sector pay grow too quickly and said there was weak management of the economy.

He said: "There are a lot of negatives that happen when you don't manage sustainable growth."

Labour Senator Susan O'Keeffe asked what Mr Wright thought of Peter Nyberg's view that the inquiry would not find anything new.

Mr Wright said it was good to have a stocktaking exercise, but he said they should be looking forward and finding out what they are learning.

Meanwhile, all of Ireland's MEPs have issued a joint letter requesting that European Central Bank President Mario Draghi agree to appear before the inquiry.

The message, which was coordinated by Independent MEP Marian Harkin and signed by all of her colleagues, is a response to Mr Draghi's contention that he is answerable to the European Parliament and not to the parliaments of members states.

Mr Wright said he did not realise that it was an option not to appear before the inquiry, after he was asked whether he was surprised that the ECB would not appear.

Many of the changes to the Department of Finance recommended by Mr Wright have been implemented, Minister for Finance Michael Noonan has said.

Mr Noonan said "the spirit" of the recommendations have been introduced, but it is an "ongoing process ... you never say that is fixed and that is the end of that".

Mr Noonan also called for the ECB to send a senior official to the inquiry and said it did not need to be Mr Draghi.

He said: "The ECB who were so central to the collapse of the Irish economy should be there.

"At a very senior level they should attend. I regret they are not there."

He said would contact the ECB and ask it to review the decision not to attend and said it should not fear the bank being victimised by the inquiry.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Rossfan on December 18, 2014, 06:34:30 PM
Earlier this year "Reeling in the years"had 2001 on. Following a report that the then 14 Other EU Finance Ministers wrote to the Irish Government  warning them about their Budgetary Policy. It was followed by a guffawing McCreevy "If the rest of Europe would do the same as us Europe would be a better place "
:'(
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Franko on January 07, 2015, 11:44:18 AM
Looks like Drumm isn't going to wriggle out of his own liabilities anyway.

David Drumm: Ex-Anglo Irish Bank CEO fails in bankruptcy bid

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30706483
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on January 07, 2015, 05:25:46 PM
Eurozone inflation for december minus 0.2% , brought below zero by the fall in the price of oil. The ecb target is 2%.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jan/07/eurozone-deflation-pressure-ecb-qe

Central banks missing targets is very fashionable
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: armaghniac on January 07, 2015, 06:33:34 PM
Quote from: seafoid on January 07, 2015, 05:25:46 PM
Eurozone inflation for december minus 0.2% , brought below zero by the fall in the price of oil. The ecb target is 2%.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jan/07/eurozone-deflation-pressure-ecb-qe

Central banks missing targets is very fashionable

There are a variety of sensationalist headlines about deflation, but I think deflation from a collapse in price of oil needs to be looked at differently from one resulting from an internal collapse, some sort of oil free index is needed. If oil suddenly went up and inflation went back to +1% this would in no sense mean that the Eurozone was better, oil going down does not mean that it worse, indeed cheaper oil provides a boost of sorts.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Rossfan on January 07, 2015, 07:22:40 PM
The Government borrowed a load of money at under 1% today -- if I heard the News correctly.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on January 07, 2015, 07:29:47 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on January 07, 2015, 06:33:34 PM
Quote from: seafoid on January 07, 2015, 05:25:46 PM
Eurozone inflation for december minus 0.2% , brought below zero by the fall in the price of oil. The ecb target is 2%.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jan/07/eurozone-deflation-pressure-ecb-qe

Central banks missing targets is very fashionable

There are a variety of sensationalist headlines about deflation, but I think deflation from a collapse in price of oil needs to be looked at differently from one resulting from an internal collapse, some sort of oil free index is needed. If oil suddenly went up and inflation went back to +1% this would in no sense mean that the Eurozone was better, oil going down does not mean that it worse, indeed cheaper oil provides a boost of sorts.
The periphery is supposed to deflate its way to competitiveness and the core is slowing down so it's about more than oil.
Deflation is a big threat.  The ECB's models can't capture what is happening via the ECB's failed policies. 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c65f18b6-9652-11e4-a40b-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz3OAQ59YRJ

James Ashley, economist at RBC Capital Markets, said that while oil prices were a factor, "the far more important question is why inflation is anywhere near 0 per cent in the first place
"The inconvenient truth for policy makers is that, in large part, that is a reflection of the failure of policy (both fiscal and monetary)," he added
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: armaghniac on January 08, 2015, 11:33:53 PM
It isn't often I watch TV3, but the film The Guarantee passed away a while earlier on (it is probably on the player). The bottom line with these things is not to get yourself boxed in the first place, it is tricky to figure things out in a short time.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on January 15, 2015, 02:15:55 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0115/672720-banking-inquiry-honohan/ (http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0115/672720-banking-inquiry-honohan/)

Central Bank Governor Patrick Honohan has said the bank guarantee could end up costing €40 billion, even after taking into account amounts recoverable by the Government in selling bank shares.

Professor Honohan told the Banking Inquiry that the original €64 billion cost had been whittled down to €40 billion but there were many "ifs and buts" remaining.

He said the €40 billion could not all have been avoided but it could have been whittled down, adding that civil servants were working very hard on this.

The Professor told the Inquiry that the form of bank guarantee taken by the Government was clearly a mistake, particularly the guaranteeing of subordinated debt. 

With the benefit of hindsight, Anglo Irish Bank and Irish Nationwide Building Society should have been put into liquidation on September 29 2008, he said.

Professor Honohan said he stood over the conclusions made into his May 2010 report into the failings of the Central Bank and the Financial Regulator during the financial crisis.

The Professor criticised central bank supervisors for trusting banks and being too deferential, adding that there was deficiencies in skills and resources among staff.

He said the approach should have been more intrusive and assertive and financial stability reports were too reassuring.

He said this amounted to a triumph of hope over reality. 


Mr Honohan said if Anglo had been liquidated in 2008, it would have been seen as a European Lehman Brothers and the Government would have been pilloried and become pariahs internationally.

He said Ireland got a bad rap for the bank guarantee but it would have been worse if Anglo was liquidated and Ireland said to hell with bondholders. 

He said the financial regulator should have known it was bust.

It should have been wound down but it would have been clearer if they knew the size of the problem, he said. 

Mr Honohan had the greatest sympathy for the political people in the room on the night of the guarantee.

In the context of the advice they were given, the decisions were "quite understandable", he told the committee.

Mr Honohan said Anglo Irish Bank was not an important contributor to the Irish economy, however, liquidating it would have caused a systemic risk.

Asked by Fine Gael TD Kieran O'Donnell about the feasibility of an orderly wind down of Anglo, Mr Honohan said the ECB was in no form of mind to permit wind downs that put losses on senior bondholders.

In terms of when the banks became insolvent, he said this was very difficult as it was hard to put a figure on assets.

He said action should have been taken by authorities to stem the risks in 2004, 2005 and 2006, after that was too late.

Mr Honohan said then Finance Minister Brian Lenihan told him he wanted to have Anglo and Nationwide nationalised on the night of the guarantee.

However, Mr Honohan said the Minister was "over-ruled" on the night.

While he did not say who over-ruled Mr Lenihan, Mr Honohan said the Taoiseach and the Attorney General were the only other political people present.


Mr Honohan told the Inquiry that the Irish authorities were approached for aid from a large German bank in the IFSC at the height of the financial crisis.

He said there were approaches from Depfa to the Central Bank for emergency liquidity.

Mr Honohan said the request was rightly turned down.


Sinn Féin's Finance Spokesperson Pearse Doherty asked Mr Honohan if he believed the Government tried to have a "non-intrusive" environment in the IFSC.

Mr Honohan said the whole regime did not want to interfere, but he added big banks did not mind having regulators examine their books.

Asked about the ECB's refusal to attend the inquiry, Mr Honohan said it was not resistant to sharing its views and he indicated it may participate in some form.

He said he had been talking to several people involved and there may be some possibility that the information and the understanding would be communicated in some way as distinct from his own attempts to do so.

He said the difficulty for the ECB was that it viewed its independence as very important and was accountable to the European Parliament rather than national parliaments.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on January 15, 2015, 02:27:48 PM
I must say I am sick of Patrick Honohan.

He works for the ECB and so does the Irish Central Bank.

He has criticised the Irish Government and the Irish Central Bank.

He is critical of the Bank Guarantee and says, out of one side of his mouth, that Anglo and PTSB should have been liquidated. But then, out of the other side of his mouth, he says the ECB were in no mood to see Bondholders lose out, i.e. the ECB wouldn't have allowed them to lose any money in any such liquidation.

The Imperial Omnipotent ECB has set up the Irish Central Bank as the patsy, along with our former Government. Honohan, who didn't work for the Central Bank at the time of the crisis, is the agent of ECB in this patsy outing. The problem though is that the Irish Central Bank is part of the ECB. The ECB cannot point to its own delinquent member and somehow deny any blame.

Honohan says the ECB 'was not resistant to sharing its views' with us. That is a monumental insult, which must be blatantly obvious to Honohan and anyone listening to him. I look forward to the members of Banking Enquiry emphatically taking him to task for that.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on January 15, 2015, 03:01:52 PM
Quote from: muppet on January 15, 2015, 02:27:48 PM
I must say I am sick of Patrick Honohan.

He works for the ECB and does the Irish Central Bank.

He has criticised the Irish Government and the Irish Central Bank.

He is critical of the Bank Guarantee and says, out of one side of his mouth, that Anglo and PTSB should have been liquidated. But then, out of the other side of his mouth, he says the ECB were in no mood to see Bondholders lose out, i.e. the ECB wouldn't have allowed them to lose any money in any such liquidation.

The Imperial Omnipotent ECB has set up the Irish Central Bank as the patsy, along with our former Government. Honohan, who didn't work for the Central Bank at the time of the crisis, is the agent of ECB in this patsy outing. The problem though is that the Irish Central Bank is part of the ECB. The ECB cannot point to its own delinquent member and somehow deny any blame.

Honohan says the ECB 'was not resistant to sharing its views' with us. That is a monumental insult, which must be blatantly obvious to Honohan and anyone listening to him. I look forward to the members of Banking Enquiry emphatically taking him to task for that.
http://www.centralbank.ie/press-area/speeches/Pages/IntroductorystatementbyGovernorPatrickHonohanatOireachtasBankingInquiry.aspx

He didn't say anything about how crap the models were (and are).
Or the nature of power, which is why Ireland was shafted.
Or the fact that the Eurozone is missing a credible Central Bank, Lender of Last resort, bank resolution etc
It'll be interesting to see how RTE report it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on January 24, 2015, 07:50:10 PM
http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/stephen-collins-why-the-greek-election-could-have-a-direct-impact-on-irish-elections-1.2077538 (http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/stephen-collins-why-the-greek-election-could-have-a-direct-impact-on-irish-elections-1.2077538)

The SF supporter in the comments section is engaging in Bank Guarantee denial. I wonder will this be the strategy in the run up to the next GE. i.e. anytime it is pointed out that they voted for the Bank Guarantee, which they did, will they deny it and refer to the Credit Institutions Bill that they voted against a month later?

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on January 24, 2015, 08:13:26 PM
Quote from: muppet on January 24, 2015, 07:50:10 PM
http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/stephen-collins-why-the-greek-election-could-have-a-direct-impact-on-irish-elections-1.2077538 (http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/stephen-collins-why-the-greek-election-could-have-a-direct-impact-on-irish-elections-1.2077538)

The SF supporter in the comments section is engaging in Bank Guarantee denial. I wonder will this be the strategy in the run up to the next GE. i.e. anytime it is pointed out that they voted for the Bank Guarantee, which they did, will they deny it and refer to the Credit Institutions Bill that they voted against a month later?

Syriza are a bit like SF post bank collapse down south - great in opposition but no idea of how to implement the policies their public love when in office.  When push comes to shove, voters do like their social welfare and health spending and they have to be funded somehow. And that is where the bonds come in.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on February 01, 2015, 08:20:40 PM
http://www.bworldonline.com/content.php?section=Beyond&title=how-greece-could-run-out-of-cash-and-what-draghi-can-do-about-it&id=101878 (http://www.bworldonline.com/content.php?section=Beyond&title=how-greece-could-run-out-of-cash-and-what-draghi-can-do-about-it&id=101878)

The European Central Bank president controls the last source of funding that euro area lenders turn to when they've been denied money everywhere else. Greek institutions are now clinging on to that increasingly tenuous lifeline, as deposits vanish and collateral runs short. In the event of a political breakdown, it will be the ECB that has to decide whether or not to cut it.

Greek banks, which play a key role in funding the government, lost about 11 billion euros in deposits in January, as anti-austerity party Syriza closed in on its election victory. As lenders run short of ways to plug the funding gaps, Greece's rebellion against the terms of its bailout risks becoming a run on the banks and, ultimately, a sovereign default.

"If Europe is serious about keeping Greece in the euro zone, and if Greece is serious about staying in the euro zone, then I think the ECB can bridge the gaps and prevent financial panic from happening," said Christian Schulz, senior European economist at Berenberg Bank in London. "If that cover isn't there, then Mr Draghi and the ECB are in a very delicate situation." -- Bloomberg


Solvency Test


Money is increasingly tight. Throughout the crisis, Greece has been able to meet its obligations, even while locked out of international debt markets, by issuing short-term bills that local banks can buy and then pledge to the ECB as collateral for further funding.

The government faces a string of tests to its solvency over the next two months, like the repayment of about 2.2 billion euros ($2.5 billion) in bailout loans and interest to the International Monetary Fund, while the trusted route of rolling over treasury bills is becoming less certain.

Greek banks have already reached a 3.5-billion-euro limit on treasury bills that the ECB authorizes as collateral for loans. To make matters worse, tax revenue has slumped by more than 2 billion euros in the past two months, leaving the government more reliant than ever on the banks.

Greek banks' eligibility for ordinary ECB cash facilities, using junk-rated Greek government bonds as collateral, has always been subject to the country being in a euro-area bailout program.

If the government sticks to its pledge not to extend the current program when it expires at the end of February, and the EU offers no alternative, the banks would be forced to replace as much as 30 billion euros in ECB funding directly from their own central bank -- so-called Emergency Liquidity Assistance.


Own Currency


ELA, too, is in the gift of Frankfurt. The ECB will next review the Greek central bank's emergency line on Feb. 4, and can order it to be shut off if it deems it inappropriate. The same procedure takes place every two weeks.

An acceleration of bank deposit outflows "could lead the government to establish capital controls and raise the amount of ELA," according to Michel Martinez, an economist at Societe Generale in Paris. If the ECB cuts the ELA funding line, "Greece will have no choice but to issue its own currency," he wrote in a Jan. 28 note.


In the short term, the ECB could still ease the way for the Greek government. In the past, the Governing Council agreed to lift the 3.5-billion T-Bill ceiling, such as in August 2012, when a large chunk of government debt matured. The condition then was that the government was engaged in constructive negotiations with the EU creditors.

Jeroen Dijsselbloem, chair of the euro region's group of finance ministers met with new Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis in Athens on Friday.

The euro area remains committed to continuing to supplying funding "during the life of the program and beyond, until it has regained market access, provided Greece fully complies with the requirements and the objectives of the program," Dijsselbloem told reporters afterward.

For his part, Varoufakis said his government wouldn't cooperate with the troika, which comprises officials from the European Commission, the ECB and IMF, and is the body that monitors whether the country is complying with those objectives.

If the tone of the dialog deteriorates, then the ECB is likely to tell Greek banks not to buy any further government bills now, as they'd be useless for obtaining central-bank cash. The ECB's supervisory chief, Daniele Nouy, has already written to executives, advising them to invest their liquidity only in assets that can be used as collateral.


Rollover Test


The first test of Greece's continuing ability to rollover its T-bill stock will come on Feb. 4 -- the same day as the ECB Governing Council meeting -- when it auctions 625 million euros of 26-week notes. Non-competitive and second-day bids would normally raise the amount sold to 1 billion euros, which would refinance 947 million euros coming due at the end of the week.

Another key date is the Feb. 16 meeting of euro-area finance ministers that will discuss Greece's program, according to analysts at Nomura including Lefteris Farmakis and Nick Matthews in a Feb. 28 note.

"The calendar is complicated further by the need of Greek banks to roll more and more T-bills as foreigners' rollover rate decreases," they wrote. "There is likely to be more volatility in Greek assets as the market is called to reprice the risk of an ultimate confrontation with Europe."


Do or die time for Greece and economic 'someone else can pay' populism.

It is important to remember that Greek debt is public debt, Irish debt was mainly private bank debt. If they get a deal we should insist on writing off all our bank debt. But that is pie in the sky stuff.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on February 02, 2015, 08:25:09 PM
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/greece-asks-ecb-keep-banks-212844374.html (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/greece-asks-ecb-keep-banks-212844374.html)

Greece Asks ECB to Keep Banks Afloat While It Looks for New Deal
Bloomberg By Jonathan Stearns
22 hours ago

(Bloomberg) -- Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras began the hunt for allies against German demands for austerity as his week-old government appealed to the European Central Bank not to shut off the money tap.

"We're not going to ask for any more loans," Varoufakis said after meeting his French counterpart, Michel Sapin. "During this period, it is perfectly possible in conjunction with the ECB to establish the liquidity provisions that are necessary."

Tsipras, who issued a statement Saturday promising to stick by Greece's financial obligations, is seeking to repair damage after a rocky first week. Bond yields spiraled and banks stocks plummeted after German Chancellor Angela Merkel stonewalled his plans to ramp up spending and write down debt. The Greek leader visits Cyprus on Monday before trips to Rome, Paris and Brussels.

He's not scheduled to see Merkel, the biggest contributor to Greece's financial rescue, until a European Union summit on Feb. 12.

Merkel wants to avoid getting drawn into a direct confrontation with Tsipras and is unlikely to agree to a face-to-face meeting with him at next week's gathering of leaders, according to a German government official who asked not to be named because the discussions are private.

Merkel's Aim
The chancellor's goal is to show Tsipras that he is isolated, the official said. What's more, she sees little margin for maneuver on the conditions of any further support for Greece and is skeptical about Tsipras's claims that he can raise revenue by cutting corruption and increasing taxes on the rich, the official added.

More from Bloomberg.com: The Fed Will Hike Rates in June: Saywell

"Europe will continue to show solidarity with Greece, as well as other countries particularly affected by the crisis, if these countries undertake their own reforms and savings efforts," Merkel said in an interview with Hamburger Abendblatt published Saturday.

While euro-area officials want Greece to stick to the austerity demands of its existing bailout agreement, Tsipras is seeking a debt writedown so he can increase public spending.

The danger is that the Greek financial system is left without funding long before Tsipras's May deadline for a deal.

At the moment, the country has a special dispensation from the ECB because it's considered to be complying with the bailout program. That means its debt can be used in central bank refinancing operations even though it is rated junk.

'No Surprises'
"There will be no surprises if we find out that a country is below that rating and there's no longer a program that that waiver disappears," ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio said at an event in Cambridge, England, on Saturday.

Greek bonds have tumbled since Tsipras's Jan. 25 election victory. Ten-year yields posted their biggest weekly increase since May 2012 and bank stocks have dropped 38 percent.

The French government has so far offered the strongest encouragement to Greece.

"It's legitimate for them to say we want to discuss how we can lower the weight of this debt," Sapin said Sunday. "We can discuss, we can postpone, we can alleviate. But we won't cancel it."

Obama's View
U.S. President Barack Obama weighed in, questioning further austerity. "You cannot keep on squeezing countries that are in the midst of depression," he said on CNN Sunday. "When you have an economy that is in freefall there has to be a growth strategy and not simply an effort to squeeze more and more out of a population that is hurting worse and worse."

Tsipras meanwhile has already started to roll back the austerity program. He asked for the resignation of Emmanuel Kondylis, chairman of the fund overseeing the country's privatization program, and Paschalis Bouhoris, its chief executive officer, a spokeswoman for the fund said late Friday.

The Greek Finance Ministry on Saturday hired Lazard Ltd. to advise on its debt strategy. Prior to the appointment, Matthieu Pigasse, the head of Lazard's Paris office who has advised Greece in the past, said a 50 percent haircut would give Greece a "reasonable" debt burden.

"We need time to breathe and create our own medium-term recovery program," Tsipras said in a statement e-mailed to Bloomberg News on Saturday. "Despite the fact that there are differences in perspective, I am absolutely confident that we will soon manage to reach a mutually beneficial agreement, both for Greece and for Europe as a whole."
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on February 09, 2015, 12:32:18 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/0209/678817-hsbc-admits-its-swiss-helped-clients-dodge-tax/ (http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/0209/678817-hsbc-admits-its-swiss-helped-clients-dodge-tax/)

Leaked documents from the Swiss branch of the HSBC bank show that 350 clients associated with Ireland held more than €3bn in accounts with the subsidiary.

Details from HSBC's private bank in Switzerland show bankers advised clients on how to keep money hidden from national authorities.

It also offered deals to help tax dodgers to stay ahead of the law.
The bank says it has now changed.

350 people associated with Ireland held 892 accounts with HSBC in Geneva worth a total of €3.1bn.

20 Irish account holders have since made settlements with the Revenue Commissioners worth over €4.5m.

The information came from documents obtained by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) via Le Monde newspaper.

Owning a Swiss bank account is not against the law, however using an account to avoid paying tax is.

The files show HSBC's Swiss bank routinely allowed clients to withdraw "bricks" of cash, often in foreign currencies which were of little use in Switzerland, marketed schemes which were likely to enable wealthy clients to avoid European taxes and colluded with some to conceal undeclared accounts from tax authorities.

HSBC said that its Swiss arm had not been fully integrated after its 1999 purchase, allowing "significantly lower" standards of compliance and due diligence to persist.

It said the Swiss private banking industry, known for its secrecy, operated differently in the past and this may have resulted in "a number of clients that may not have been fully compliant with their applicable tax obligations."

Its private bank, especially its Swiss arm, had undergone "a radical transformation" in recent years, it said in a detailed four-page statement.

HSBC said the number of accounts in its Swiss private bank had fallen from 30,412 in 2007 to 10,343 at the end of last year and it was cooperating with authorities investigating tax matters.

The data was supplied by Herve Falciani, a former IT employee of HSBC's Swiss private bank. HSBC said Mr Falciani downloaded details of accounts and clients at the end of 2006 and early 2007.

French authorities have obtained data on thousands of the customers and shared them with tax authorities elsewhere, including Argentina.

Some of the details of the list have been released before. The names of 2,000 Greeks with HSBC accounts was made public in 2010 and dubbed the "Lagarde List" after former French finance minister Christine Lagarde.

France passed the names to Greece to help it crack down on tax evasion.



350 people with a total of €3bn is an average of €8,500,000 each. This is not your average lad putting away a few quid. Fair play to the International consortium of 'Investigative Journalists'. When was the last time an Irish hack came up with such a story? (Edit - I will withdraw that if it emerges that there was an Irish hack involved, but I am sceptical).

We seem to have 3 schools of journalists here nowadays. A handful of independent thinkers (Kelly, McWilliams etc), those who slaughter the Government every day (until maybe election day - Eoghan Harris types) and those who slaughter the opposition (mainly SF these days - INM in the main). But no investigative journalists doing any quality work.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: johnneycool on February 09, 2015, 12:38:00 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 09, 2015, 12:32:18 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/0209/678817-hsbc-admits-its-swiss-helped-clients-dodge-tax/ (http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/0209/678817-hsbc-admits-its-swiss-helped-clients-dodge-tax/)

Leaked documents from the Swiss branch of the HSBC bank show that 350 clients associated with Ireland held more than €3bn in accounts with the subsidiary.

Details from HSBC's private bank in Switzerland show bankers advised clients on how to keep money hidden from national authorities.

It also offered deals to help tax dodgers to stay ahead of the law.
The bank says it has now changed.

350 people associated with Ireland held 892 accounts with HSBC in Geneva worth a total of €3.1bn.

20 Irish account holders have since made settlements with the Revenue Commissioners worth over €4.5m.

The information came from documents obtained by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) via Le Monde newspaper.

Owning a Swiss bank account is not against the law, however using an account to avoid paying tax is.

The files show HSBC's Swiss bank routinely allowed clients to withdraw "bricks" of cash, often in foreign currencies which were of little use in Switzerland, marketed schemes which were likely to enable wealthy clients to avoid European taxes and colluded with some to conceal undeclared accounts from tax authorities.

HSBC said that its Swiss arm had not been fully integrated after its 1999 purchase, allowing "significantly lower" standards of compliance and due diligence to persist.

It said the Swiss private banking industry, known for its secrecy, operated differently in the past and this may have resulted in "a number of clients that may not have been fully compliant with their applicable tax obligations."

Its private bank, especially its Swiss arm, had undergone "a radical transformation" in recent years, it said in a detailed four-page statement.

HSBC said the number of accounts in its Swiss private bank had fallen from 30,412 in 2007 to 10,343 at the end of last year and it was cooperating with authorities investigating tax matters.

The data was supplied by Herve Falciani, a former IT employee of HSBC's Swiss private bank. HSBC said Mr Falciani downloaded details of accounts and clients at the end of 2006 and early 2007.

French authorities have obtained data on thousands of the customers and shared them with tax authorities elsewhere, including Argentina.

Some of the details of the list have been released before. The names of 2,000 Greeks with HSBC accounts was made public in 2010 and dubbed the "Lagarde List" after former French finance minister Christine Lagarde.

France passed the names to Greece to help it crack down on tax evasion.



350 people with a total of €3bn is an average of €8,500,000 each. This is not your average lad putting away a few quid. Fair play to the International consortium of 'Investigative Journalists'. When was the last time an Irish hack came up with such a story? (Edit - I will withdraw that if it emerges that there was an Irish hack involved, but I am sceptical).

We seem to have 3 schools of journalists here nowadays. A handful of independent thinkers (Kelly, McWilliams etc), those who slaughter the Government every day (until maybe election day - Eoghan Harris types) and those who slaughter the opposition (mainly SF these days - INM in the main). But no investigative journalists doing any quality work.

Only name I can see there is John Magnier, any others?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on February 09, 2015, 01:01:26 PM
Good spot Johnnycool.

Here is the leak's own website: http://www.icij.org/project/swiss-leaks/explore-swiss-leaks-data (http://www.icij.org/project/swiss-leaks/explore-swiss-leaks-data)

I have to run but will get back to this tonight to see who is on it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: ludermor on February 09, 2015, 04:00:53 PM
From the swiss leaks site - 350 clients are associated with Ireland. 51% have a Irish passport or nationality.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: johnneycool on February 09, 2015, 04:02:45 PM
Quote from: ludermor on February 09, 2015, 04:00:53 PM
From the swiss leaks site - 350 clients are associated with Ireland. 51% have a Irish passport or nationality.

I see an Indian paper has listed the big hitters from India involved, surprised the Dublin media haven't got the Irish names up yet!!!  ::)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on February 09, 2015, 04:04:36 PM
Quote from: johnneycool on February 09, 2015, 04:02:45 PM
Quote from: ludermor on February 09, 2015, 04:00:53 PM
From the swiss leaks site - 350 clients are associated with Ireland. 51% have a Irish passport or nationality.

I see an Indian paper has listed the big hitters from India involved, surprised the Dublin media haven't got the Irish names up yet!!!  ::)

I am not.

I am surprised they even mentioned the story.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: johnneycool on February 09, 2015, 04:11:17 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 09, 2015, 04:04:36 PM
Quote from: johnneycool on February 09, 2015, 04:02:45 PM
Quote from: ludermor on February 09, 2015, 04:00:53 PM
From the swiss leaks site - 350 clients are associated with Ireland. 51% have a Irish passport or nationality.

I see an Indian paper has listed the big hitters from India involved, surprised the Dublin media haven't got the Irish names up yet!!!  ::)

I am not.

I am surprised they even mentioned the story.

Being sarcastic Muppet!

Another name bandied about is some Kerry business man, John Cashell.

Probably a small fish who's involvement was known long ago..

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Rossfan on February 09, 2015, 05:12:11 PM
Quote from: johnneycool on February 09, 2015, 04:02:45 PM
Quote from: ludermor on February 09, 2015, 04:00:53 PM
From the swiss leaks site - 350 clients are associated with Ireland. 51% have a Irish passport or nationality.

I see an Indian paper has listed the big hitters from India involved, surprised the Dublin media haven't got the Irish names up yet!!!  ::)
The Irish ones likely own the media here  ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on February 09, 2015, 07:40:49 PM
Quote from: johnneycool on February 09, 2015, 12:38:00 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 09, 2015, 12:32:18 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/0209/678817-hsbc-admits-its-swiss-helped-clients-dodge-tax/ (http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/0209/678817-hsbc-admits-its-swiss-helped-clients-dodge-tax/)

Leaked documents from the Swiss branch of the HSBC bank show that 350 clients associated with Ireland held more than €3bn in accounts with the subsidiary.

Details from HSBC's private bank in Switzerland show bankers advised clients on how to keep money hidden from national authorities.

It also offered deals to help tax dodgers to stay ahead of the law.
The bank says it has now changed.

350 people associated with Ireland held 892 accounts with HSBC in Geneva worth a total of €3.1bn.

20 Irish account holders have since made settlements with the Revenue Commissioners worth over €4.5m.

The information came from documents obtained by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) via Le Monde newspaper.

Owning a Swiss bank account is not against the law, however using an account to avoid paying tax is.

The files show HSBC's Swiss bank routinely allowed clients to withdraw "bricks" of cash, often in foreign currencies which were of little use in Switzerland, marketed schemes which were likely to enable wealthy clients to avoid European taxes and colluded with some to conceal undeclared accounts from tax authorities.

HSBC said that its Swiss arm had not been fully integrated after its 1999 purchase, allowing "significantly lower" standards of compliance and due diligence to persist.

It said the Swiss private banking industry, known for its secrecy, operated differently in the past and this may have resulted in "a number of clients that may not have been fully compliant with their applicable tax obligations."

Its private bank, especially its Swiss arm, had undergone "a radical transformation" in recent years, it said in a detailed four-page statement.

HSBC said the number of accounts in its Swiss private bank had fallen from 30,412 in 2007 to 10,343 at the end of last year and it was cooperating with authorities investigating tax matters.

The data was supplied by Herve Falciani, a former IT employee of HSBC's Swiss private bank. HSBC said Mr Falciani downloaded details of accounts and clients at the end of 2006 and early 2007.

French authorities have obtained data on thousands of the customers and shared them with tax authorities elsewhere, including Argentina.

Some of the details of the list have been released before. The names of 2,000 Greeks with HSBC accounts was made public in 2010 and dubbed the "Lagarde List" after former French finance minister Christine Lagarde.

France passed the names to Greece to help it crack down on tax evasion.



350 people with a total of €3bn is an average of €8,500,000 each. This is not your average lad putting away a few quid. Fair play to the International consortium of 'Investigative Journalists'. When was the last time an Irish hack came up with such a story? (Edit - I will withdraw that if it emerges that there was an Irish hack involved, but I am sceptical).

We seem to have 3 schools of journalists here nowadays. A handful of independent thinkers (Kelly, McWilliams etc), those who slaughter the Government every day (until maybe election day - Eoghan Harris types) and those who slaughter the opposition (mainly SF these days - INM in the main). But no investigative journalists doing any quality work.

Only name I can see there is John Magnier, any others?
If Magnier is in there affiliates of Mr Sporting limerick might be around somewhere in the vicinity
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: magpie seanie on February 10, 2015, 12:05:47 PM
All our big heroes.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: johnneycool on February 10, 2015, 12:55:46 PM
Still very little coverage in the Irish media........

Wonder why?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Hound on February 10, 2015, 01:46:46 PM
Quote from: johnneycool on February 10, 2015, 12:55:46 PM
Still very little coverage in the Irish media........

Wonder why?
Irish Times listed 3 guys yesterday. Don't think I'd heard of them and at least one of them only had very small amounts involved. One thing they all had in common was they'd already been published as tax defaulters by Irish Revenue and all have now settled their liabilities.

So maybe there's invasion of privacy issues and libel issues. Its not against the law for an Irish resident to hold a Swiss bank account, so long as you pay Irish tax on the interest earned.

I couldnt find an Irish list on the website quoted above. But in the comments sections I saw lots of complaints about lists being published in dribs and drabs rather than in total and questions as to why a lot of small fish have had their names published and most of the big fish haven't.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on February 10, 2015, 06:18:30 PM
Quote from: Hound on February 10, 2015, 01:46:46 PM
Quote from: johnneycool on February 10, 2015, 12:55:46 PM
Still very little coverage in the Irish media........

Wonder why?
Irish Times listed 3 guys yesterday. Don't think I'd heard of them and at least one of them only had very small amounts involved. One thing they all had in common was they'd already been published as tax defaulters by Irish Revenue and all have now settled their liabilities.

So maybe there's invasion of privacy issues and libel issues. Its not against the law for an Irish resident to hold a Swiss bank account, so long as you pay Irish tax on the interest earned.

I couldnt find an Irish list on the website quoted above. But in the comments sections I saw lots of complaints about lists being published in dribs and drabs rather than in total and questions as to why a lot of small fish have had their names published and most of the big fish haven't.

The largest Irish client had €731m with HSBC. I haven't heard who that might be, and of course he might not have avoided his taxes. But does anyone know?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: johnneycool on February 11, 2015, 09:42:32 AM
Quote from: Hound on February 10, 2015, 01:46:46 PM
Quote from: johnneycool on February 10, 2015, 12:55:46 PM
Still very little coverage in the Irish media........

Wonder why?
Irish Times listed 3 guys yesterday. Don't think I'd heard of them and at least one of them only had very small amounts involved. One thing they all had in common was they'd already been published as tax defaulters by Irish Revenue and all have now settled their liabilities.

So maybe there's invasion of privacy issues and libel issues. Its not against the law for an Irish resident to hold a Swiss bank account, so long as you pay Irish tax on the interest earned.

I couldnt find an Irish list on the website quoted above. But in the comments sections I saw lots of complaints about lists being published in dribs and drabs rather than in total and questions as to why a lot of small fish have had their names published and most of the big fish haven't.

Agreed, so how would there possibly be privacy and libel issues if someone was to put up the list of HSBC Switzerland account holders as no doubt they've all paid their taxes?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Hardy on February 11, 2015, 10:05:10 AM
But if we assume they've all paid their taxes, how is it a matter of public interest that they hold foreign accounts?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on February 11, 2015, 07:12:26 PM
2 Trillion euros are invested in government bonds at negative yields. This means that the holders of the bonds actually pay to hold their assets.
Deflation is coming. Deflation is going to destroy an awful lot of balance sheets.

And there's more !

Capitalism is banjaxed because markets do not believe Central Banks any more .
There is basically too much debt. And nobody knows what to do

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/86bd4a36-a60e-11e4-9bd3-00144feab7de.html

If you are too cautious and you allow deflation to set in, it is very hard to control," Gilles Moec, chief European economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
The US is not immune: long-term inflation expectations are now lower than when the Federal Reserve launched its QE programmes. The US 30-year bond yield of 2.3 per cent is the lowest since regular US Treasury issuance began in the 1970s and shows how the stimulus of other central banks is influencing bond markets.
"People tend to think of this as a European and Japanese issue but the move down in yields is a global trend. That increases your worry that economies are not responding to all this stimulus," says Matt King, credit strategist at Citigroup.
Negative yields have immediate implications for other financial assets, which use supposedly "risk-free" government bonds as a benchmark. If government bonds are overpriced, then so is pretty much everything else.
"It was less than a year ago that negative interest rates were still largely a footnote in a dog-eared history book about 1970s Swiss monetary policy. Either bonds are mispriced and large losses loom for investors, or we have a big problem on our hands," says Alan Ruskin, strategist at Deutsche Bank.

Borrowing costs tumbling below zero also create risks that could spread beyond the financial sector and become "real" economy shocks. Yields so far below historic norms raise worries about price bubbles across asset classes which could threaten financial stability and test sweeping regulatory changes meant to make the system safer.


"The lower asset yields fall, the higher the probability of a correction and the greater the compression, the greater will be the size of the correction," says Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, JPMorgan strategist. "If we do get inflation, it could be quite vicious."
"The purpose of QE is forcing down interest rates, that is the policy goal," he says.
The trend of historically low interest rates may be the result of markets' waning confidence in central bankers' ability to pump up economies through the traditional policy prescription of rate cuts. What has alarmed central banks on both sides of the Atlantic are sharp falls in future long-term inflation rates being priced into markets.

"People are losing their faith in central banks' ability to push inflation higher. A big acid test looms for central bankers who believe in the Phillips curve, or the idea that lower unemployment leads to wage inflation," says William O'Donnell, strategist at RBS Securities.

"Germans make the point that QE just puts off necessary reforms. I'm very sympathetic to that view," says Mr King at Citigroup. "We're in a period when investment should be high. People should be saying: 'I can do something useful with all the cheap money and put it into the real economy.' But the investment we're seeing is very disappointing. In the energy sector it is actually being cut."
Mr Borio at the BIS warns that high levels of debt across economies have created a "debt trap" in which it becomes difficult for central banks to raise interest rates without inflicting damage on the real economy.

"If you don't react sufficiently to imbalances, over time you can induce an easing bias, which could end up entrenching financial instability and chronic weaknesses," he says. "At some point, to the extent that debt levels don't decline sufficiently, it could become very difficult to raise interest rates without creating the very problems that you have been trying to avoid."

That raises the risk of an intensified easing war between central banks. Conflicts are being played out in the currency markets, with the dollar appreciating against a range of currencies. It has risen 18 per cent on a trade-weighted basis since July.

Tension between central bank policies is not new but have arguably worsened as monetary authorities have pumped more money into the financial system and capital markets have expanded globally. With interest rate cuts in crisis-hit countries and regions, investors' money has flowed into other economies, including emerging markets, pushing up currencies and threatening to squeeze economic activity.

"Within Europe there is a sense of central banks not being totally in control of the situation," says Simon Derrick, chief currency strategist at BNP Mellon.

If worries about a "debt trap" are justified, the implications for financial markets are potentially huge. Switzerland has demonstrated what can go wrong when central banks try to lift exceptional crisis-fighting measures and attempt to return to more normal policies.
"What will QE do that negative rates in Germany haven't already done?" asks Mr O'Donnell. "Central bankers must be deeply disturbed that investors are taking negative rates."


Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on February 11, 2015, 09:28:50 PM
These guys are stranding in front of a giant creaking dam and talking about how the heavy rain might damage their umbrellas.

(http://goldsilverworlds.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/US_Currency_circulation_1920_2014.jpg)

There is no stopping it now.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: johnneycool on February 11, 2015, 10:09:00 PM
Quote from: Hardy on February 11, 2015, 10:05:10 AM
But if we assume they've all paid their taxes, how is it a matter of public interest that they hold foreign accounts?

The Brits with accounts are beginning to filter out, so no concerns about confidentiality or libel there although Ed did use parliamentary privilege
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on February 16, 2015, 01:34:29 PM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-12/central-banks-hungry-for-gold-bought-enough-for-75-dreamliners (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-12/central-banks-hungry-for-gold-bought-enough-for-75-dreamliners)

(Bloomberg) -- Central banks purchased enough gold in 2014 to buy 75 Boeing Co. Dreamliners.

Governments added 477.2 metric tons to their reserves, the second-biggest increase in 50 years and 17 percent more than a year earlier, the World Gold Council said in a report Thursday. Based on the average price of gold in 2014, central banks probably paid about $19.4 billion. A Boeing 787-9 has a $257.1 million retail price, according to the company's website.

Central banks have added to gold reserves for the past five years, a reversal from two decades of selling since the late 1980s. Purchases will be at least 400 tons this year, according to estimates from the London-based council, which represents 17 gold producers. Total demand for gold fell last year as Chinese consumers bought less jewelry, bars and coins.

"There is a lot of scope for emerging market central banks to expand their holdings as these are still significantly underweight," Alistair Hewitt, head of market intelligence at the council, in a phone interview on Wednesday. "Demand from this sector is going to remain robust."

Russia was the biggest buyer of gold, while Ukraine sold the most as fighters from both countries clashed along Ukraine's eastern border.

Russia's gold stockpile has grown to the biggest since at least 1993 after purchases topped 173 tons last year. The country has been buying the metal to diversify its foreign reserves and solve problems related to ruble liquidity, central bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Moscow this month.

Gold accounts for about 12 percent of its total foreign reserves. That's still less than the U.S. and Germany, the biggest holders, with the metal making up about 70 percent of reserves.

Ukraine sold almost 19 tons of gold, while Kazakhstan and Iraq both bought about 48 tons, according to the council. Azerbaijan purchased about 10 tons, the report showed.

Gold for immediate delivery added 0.3 percent to $1,222.99 an ounce as of 12:16 p.m. in London. The metal has climbed 3.3 percent this year.

Countries have bought 1,964 tons of gold over the past five years, equal to more than seven months of mine output, as they sought an alternative to currencies, according to the gold council report.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on February 16, 2015, 01:37:32 PM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-15/greeks-show-support-for-tsipras-on-eve-of-brussels-talks (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-15/greeks-show-support-for-tsipras-on-eve-of-brussels-talks)

(Bloomberg) -- Greece's euro-area creditors voiced skepticism that a breakthrough on financing Europe's most indebted state was within reach, suggesting that any deal with Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras's government will go to the wire.

Weekend discussions aimed at identifying common ground failed to make sufficient progress to bridge the divide between the Greek government and its international creditors, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said in an interview with Deutschlandradio.

"From what I've heard about the technical discussions at the weekend, I'm very skeptical," said Schaeuble, whose country is the biggest contributor to Greece's 240 billion-euro ($274 billion) twin bailouts and the chief advocate of economic reforms in return for aid. "But we'll get a report today and then we'll see."

Greek stocks and bonds dropped as Schaeuble's comments were echoed by colleagues from Malta to France, signaling Monday's meeting in Brussels of euro-area finance chiefs will struggle to reach an accord. Failure to strike a deal by Feb. 28, when the current rescue expires, risks leaving Greece adrift without funds to keep banks afloat and to pay salaries, triggering a chain reaction that could put the country's euro membership in jeopardy.

"The stakes are high, but I doubt tonight is much more than theatrics," Daniel Gros, director of the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels, said in an e-mail. "The real showdown will come much later."

The yield on Greece's three-year government bond surged 121 basis points to 17.1 percent as of 12:15 p.m. in Athens, while the Athens Stock Exchange Index dropped 3.4 percent to 863.65. That's a reversal from Friday, when stocks and bonds rose as officials on both sides signaled some willingness to compromise after an initial meeting yielded little progress.

Talks took place on Saturday between officials from Greece's finance and foreign ministries and technical delegations from the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Rather than negotiations toward a deal, the focus was on identifying areas of agreement and fields where both sides diverge, according to Greek and EU officials.

'Touch and Go'
Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis aims to secure a six-month bridge package that gives Greece the time and financial space to negotiate a post-bailout settlement. Creditors say that Tsipras's government must abide by the agreements struck by previous Greek administrations.

Hopes are not high for Monday's meeting and the Greeks have very different ideas to their partners, according to an EU official who asked not to named because the talks are private.

Malta's Finance Minister Edward Scicluna described the meeting as "touch-and-go," saying he thought the situation in Greece was "even worse than expected."

"Partners are being asked for impossible favors with offensive statements to boot," he said in an interview in Brussels Monday before finance chiefs met. A deal by Feb. 28, "depends entirely on Greece," he said.

Austrian Finance Minister Hans Joerg Schelling said the Greek proposals "so far aren't concrete enough" and are "still lacking some numbers," according to an interview on German ZDF television.

French Finance Minister Michel Sapin said there's a "chance" of an accord on Monday, though when pressed he declined to say whether one is probable or not. "The objective is to reach an agreement," he said on France 2 television.

Tsipras Confident
Tsipras spoke with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker late last night, as Juncker made a last-ditch effort to get a deal, according to an EU official. In a weekend interview with Germany's Stern magazine, Tsipras was quoted as saying he anticipated "difficult negotiations" ahead, though he remained "full of confidence."

Tsipras's Syriza party was elected Jan. 25 on a platform of ending austerity, a partial debt writedown and no more audits by the so-called troika comprising the commission, the ECB and the IMF. While the Greek government has no natural allies around the table on Monday, polls show domestic support remains strong. More than 20,000 people demonstrated in central Athens late Sunday in support of its stance.

"Europe is good at finding face-saving compromises in late-night sessions," said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank in London. "Our call is that Tsipras will get real and strike a deal soon, probably with a de facto extension of the current program in a slightly amended form and with a less intrusive follow-up support program thereafter. But the risk of accidental Grexit caused by a Greek refusal to accept reality remains high."
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on February 16, 2015, 04:35:56 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 11, 2015, 09:28:50 PM
These guys are stranding in front of a giant creaking dam and talking about how the heavy rain might damage their umbrellas.

(http://goldsilverworlds.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/US_Currency_circulation_1920_2014.jpg)

There is no stopping it now.
that is nothing compared to the volume of outstanding derivatives
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: macdanger2 on February 16, 2015, 11:17:59 PM
Looks like the Greeks are playing hard ball. TBF it's understandable, the level of debt is unsustainable and you'd have to imagine a compromise is needed.

I remember reading a few years back that there's no legal mechanism for a country to leave the Euro so if there's no deal it's going to require some interesting manoeuvres
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Main Street on February 17, 2015, 10:10:49 PM
Quote from: Hardy on February 11, 2015, 10:05:10 AM
But if we assume they've all paid their taxes, how is it a matter of public interest that they hold foreign accounts?
There are no assumptions,
Generally a citizen's banked assets (within reason) would have be in line with declared incomes. And are citizens not required to declare all accounts? Is there not a tax on savings? at least on the interest earned by those savings.
Generally tax avoiders are protected by the government of the day, protected by the lack of due attention. It is quite astounding the amount of pressure that has to be exerted so that a decision is taken to investigate such detailed tax avoidance information, meanwhile we have Bruton ordered to weed out scroungers on the dole with plenty of  resources allocated for the purpose, pennies in comparison with blatant tax avoidance scams.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Rossfan on February 17, 2015, 11:14:28 PM
Sponge €1,000 off Social welfare and you're a disgraceful criminal, dodge €3,000,000 in tax and sure you're a great lad and probably good mates with a scatter of politicians.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: mikehunt on February 18, 2015, 12:47:30 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on February 17, 2015, 11:14:28 PM
Sponge €1,000 off Social welfare and you're a disgraceful criminal, dodge €3,000,000 in tax and sure you're a great lad and probably good mates with a scatter of politicians.

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/courts/man-jailed-for-six-years-over-16m-garlic-tax-scam-26830346.html

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on February 19, 2015, 06:56:58 PM
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-31532755 (http://www.bbc.com/news/business-31532755)

Greece are doing what we should have done in September 2008, i.e. bring everything to the brink.

So far the ECB have slightly increased ELA funding to the Greek Banks. This is what Lenihan told us they wouldn't do and that there would be a run on the banks in the morning if there wasn't a Bank Guarantee.

If he had sat tight and let Anglo and IN go, the ECB would have either had to step into the breach or let them fail. Either way the Irish taxpayer would have been €35bn-€40bn better off.

Greece are trying too late, having mortgaged everything when they signed up for the bailout. They will either back down to the Germans or face  unprecedented problems.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on February 19, 2015, 07:57:31 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 19, 2015, 06:56:58 PM
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-31532755 (http://www.bbc.com/news/business-31532755)

Greece are doing what we should have done in September 2008, i.e. bring everything to the brink.

So far the ECB have slightly increased ELA funding to the Greek Banks. This is what Lenihan told us they wouldn't do and that there would be a run on the banks in the morning if there wasn't a Bank Guarantee.

If he had sat tight and let Anglo and IN go, the ECB would have either had to step into the breach or let them fail. Either way the Irish taxpayer would have been €35bn-€40bn better off.

Greece are trying too late, having mortgaged everything when they signed up for the bailout. They will either back down to the Germans or face  unprecedented problems.
Ireland couldn't have done it. Greece do it now having proof the bailouts and austerity do not bring growth. FF had no choice. Debt for equity and debt writeoffs were not on the table. France was not banjaxed in 2008.m
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on February 19, 2015, 09:05:01 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 19, 2015, 07:57:31 PM
Quote from: muppet on February 19, 2015, 06:56:58 PM
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-31532755 (http://www.bbc.com/news/business-31532755)

Greece are doing what we should have done in September 2008, i.e. bring everything to the brink.

So far the ECB have slightly increased ELA funding to the Greek Banks. This is what Lenihan told us they wouldn't do and that there would be a run on the banks in the morning if there wasn't a Bank Guarantee.

If he had sat tight and let Anglo and IN go, the ECB would have either had to step into the breach or let them fail. Either way the Irish taxpayer would have been €35bn-€40bn better off.

Greece are trying too late, having mortgaged everything when they signed up for the bailout. They will either back down to the Germans or face  unprecedented problems.
Ireland couldn't have done it. Greece do it now having proof the bailouts and austerity do not bring growth. FF had no choice. Debt for equity and debt writeoffs were not on the table. France was not banjaxed in 2008.m

Debt for equity and debt write-offs would not have been what was sought. Why would we accept the Anglo debt when we weren't on the hook for it? Tell the ECB 'if it goes then it goes'. It was Trichet who insisted on no bank being let fail. His gambit of threatening to fail an entire country if you don't save a bank for me, was farcical and needed to be called.

I accept we would have had to deal, but there was a far better deal there for us if we had stood up for ourselves.



Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on February 24, 2015, 11:07:50 AM
You know the way people who observe a tsunami talk about the tide going a long, long way out first?

I think that it was this represents.........

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B-mnmN6UYAAWB2m.jpg:large)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: johnneycool on February 24, 2015, 11:19:28 AM
Quote from: muppet on February 24, 2015, 11:07:50 AM
You know the way people who observe a tsunami talk about the tide going a long, long way out first?

I think that it was this represents.........

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B-mnmN6UYAAWB2m.jpg:large)

Question;
                 why is negative inflation seen as a bad thing;
                                                                            i    for consumers?
                                                                           ii    for the economy?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: macdanger2 on February 24, 2015, 12:14:20 PM
I'm no expert but I believe it's because people see prices going down so they decide to wait to spend money which results in reduced demand and in turn drives prices down and so people wait longer to spend money and on and on.......less money circulating = less jobs
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on February 24, 2015, 12:29:27 PM
Quote from: johnneycool on February 24, 2015, 11:19:28 AM
Quote from: muppet on February 24, 2015, 11:07:50 AM
You know the way people who observe a tsunami talk about the tide going a long, long way out first?

I think that it was this represents.........

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B-mnmN6UYAAWB2m.jpg:large)

Question;
                 why is negative inflation seen as a bad thing;
                                                                            i    for consumers?
                                                                           ii    for the economy?

We were talking about that a while back in the context of oil prices falling. I think it is a very good thing, unless you are a net producer of oil. A smaller percentage of your costs or household expenses going on power/heat etc can't be bad for you.

The problem as I see it is that the new global financial system is like a giant pendulum. That last time the pendulum swung through it took out the US sub-prime market and half of Wall Street with it, along with the European banking system. The latter hasn't recovered yet.

The pendulum can't be stopped, only delayed. The imminent Eurozone QE, along with the US QE, British QE and Japanese QE has delayed it coming again, by pushing it further back on its swing away from us. But that is only likely to create a bigger problem.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on March 02, 2015, 07:23:27 PM
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-31690198 (http://www.bbc.com/news/business-31690198)

Manufacturing output in Ireland has risen to its highest level in more than 15 years, according to the Markit Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI).

Accelerated growth in both new orders and production pushed Ireland's PMI to 57.5 in February. A figure above 50 suggests expansion.

Overall eurozone manufacturing PMI held steady in February at 51.0.

France's manufacturing sector contracted to 47.6, the lowest score in the eurozone.

Manufacturing in the eurozone matched January's figure, even though new orders rose to a seven month-high.

Meanwhile, lower oil prices have reduced manufacturing input costs, said Markit.

'Key test'
Ireland's manufacturing growth seems to be resilient, said Investec's chief economist Philip O'Sullivan, but "any uncertainty ahead of the upcoming UK election - given that Ireland's closest neighbour has repeatedly been identified by manufacturers as a key source of demand - is likely to put that to the test".

Job creation in Ireland's manufacturing sector reached its highest since May 1998, Markit said.

Greece, France and Austria all saw their manufacturing sectors contract in February.

France's manufacturing PMI fell as sharp declines in output, new orders and employment weighed on the index.

"France is the most worrying, not just because it trails behind all other countries, but it is also the only country seeing a steepening downturn," said Markit's chief economist Chris Williamson.




Serious question, what are we manufacturing so much of?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: macdanger2 on March 02, 2015, 07:57:20 PM
Pharmaceuticals & electronics make up a nice chunk of it I'd say
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: armaghniac on March 02, 2015, 09:10:36 PM
Job creation in Ireland's manufacturing sector reached its highest since May 1998, Markit said.


I think this is the important line. The value is greatly inflated by transfer pricing and the like, but if some people are getting jobs that is a real gain.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on March 02, 2015, 11:12:39 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on March 02, 2015, 09:10:36 PM
Job creation in Ireland's manufacturing sector reached its highest since May 1998, Markit said.


I think this is the important line. The value is greatly inflated by transfer pricing and the like, but if some people are getting jobs that is a real gain.

Lookit, go out and Markit 'til we winit.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: armaghniac on March 03, 2015, 06:26:38 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 02, 2015, 11:12:39 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on March 02, 2015, 09:10:36 PM
Job creation in Ireland's manufacturing sector reached its highest since May 1998, Markit said.


I think this is the important line. The value is greatly inflated by transfer pricing and the like, but if some people are getting jobs that is a real gain.

Lookit, go out and Markit 'til we winit.

Somebody is scoring
http://m.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0303/684232-exchequer-returns-february/
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: armaghniac on March 12, 2015, 05:28:55 PM
Ireland, fastest growing economy in the Eurozone
http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0312/686549-cso-gdp-growth/

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Mike Sheehy on March 12, 2015, 09:26:13 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on March 12, 2015, 05:28:55 PM
Ireland, fastest growing economy in the Eurozone
http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0312/686549-cso-gdp-growth/

If we could reimagine the relationship between labour and capital this rollercoaster might flatten out.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on March 18, 2015, 03:11:33 PM
The original is behind a paywall at businesspost.ie but here is a follow up: http://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/irish-economy-wrecked-50-tycoons-5341159 (http://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/irish-economy-wrecked-50-tycoons-5341159)

This should have been the story 5 - 10 years ago and should definitely have been the story when FF/PD brought the Bank Guarantee legislation to the Dáil. Here is the link to the article on the PWC report Cowan used to justify the Guarantee. The report warned of relying on the information given by the banks. For example, here is a quote form the article: A tiny loan with a provision of just €100,000 (owed by a businessman with no property exposure) was laughably enough to make it into Anglo's top 20 impaired loans list.

http://www.businesspost.ie/#!story/Home/News+Focus/The+PwC+files+revealed/id/ef1f839e-27f3-41ba-89c5-066406772b25 (http://www.businesspost.ie/#!story/Home/News+Focus/The+PwC+files+revealed/id/ef1f839e-27f3-41ba-89c5-066406772b25)

A second article on the sbp lists the top 22. I won't bother with the full article which is long and subject to copyright/paywall etc. But here is the link:
http://www.businesspost.ie/#!story/Home/News+Focus/The+gang+of+22/id/0bcf803b-908a-43f2-9019-72168a5b3c7a (http://www.businesspost.ie/#!story/Home/News+Focus/The+gang+of+22/id/0bcf803b-908a-43f2-9019-72168a5b3c7a)

The following 22 men ended up owing Irish Banks €26n cumulatively:

1 Sean Quinn Total borrowings: €2.85 billion
2 Joe O'Reilly Castlethorn / Crossridge Total borrowings: €2.3 billion
3 Sean Mulryan Total borrowings: €2.4 billion
4 Derek Quinlan Total borrowings: €1.84 billion
5 Michael O'Flynn and linked companies Total borrowings: €1.8 billion
6 Bernard McNamara Total borrowings: €1.67 billion
7 Treasury Holdings Total borrowings: €1.613 billion
8 Gerry Gannon Total borrowings: €1.237 billion
9 Cosgrave Group Total borrowings: €1.086 billion
10 Denis O'Brien Total borrowings: €1 billion
11 Achilleas Kallakis Total borrowings: €888 million
12 Liam Carroll Total borrowings: €1 billion
13 Gerry Barrett Total borrowings: €705.2 million
14 John J Fleming/Fleming Group Total borrowings: €658 million
15 Pat Doherty/Harcourt Developments Total borrowings: €650 million
16 PCO 199 (Vendart) Total borrowings: €646.7 million
17 Glenn Maud Total borrowings: €605.5 million
18 David Daly Total borrowings: €588 million
19 McAleer & Rushe Total borrowings: €545 million
20 Fitzwilliam Finance Corp (Noel Smyth) Total borrowings: €543 million
21 Bovale Developments Total borrowings: €529 million
22 The Grehan brothers Total borrowings: €570 million
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on March 18, 2015, 03:24:43 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on March 12, 2015, 05:28:55 PM
Ireland, fastest growing economy in the Eurozone
http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0312/686549-cso-gdp-growth/

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/rise-of-sinn-f%C3%A9in-represents-main-threat-to-growth-says-economist-1.2143204
"The Irish economy has the capacity to continue to grow rapidly without overheating, according to the senior European economist with Goldman Sachs.
London-based Kevin Daly said political factors were now the main risk to Ireland's economic future, citing the increased popularity of Sinn Féin, with policies similar to those of Syriza in Greece and Podemos in Spain.
"In his view an important explanation for "mainstream" parties losing popularity when the economy was doing so well was due to the fact that job and income levels remained weaker than before the crisis."

Weak wage growth is cancerous
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: foxcommander on March 18, 2015, 03:28:02 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 18, 2015, 03:24:43 PM
"The Irish economy has the capacity to continue to grow rapidly without overheating, according to the senior European economist with Goldman Sachs.

Have we heard this one before?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: armaghniac on March 18, 2015, 03:51:49 PM
Quote from: foxcommander on March 18, 2015, 03:28:02 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 18, 2015, 03:24:43 PM
"The Irish economy has the capacity to continue to grow rapidly without overheating, according to the senior European economist with Goldman Sachs.

Have we heard this one before?

Yes. We heard this 20 years ago and it was absolutely true for 7 years. Of course, the economy will eventually overheat in 2023, if we haven't learned anything, but there should be good progress in the meantime.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on March 18, 2015, 05:17:12 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on March 18, 2015, 03:51:49 PM
Quote from: foxcommander on March 18, 2015, 03:28:02 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 18, 2015, 03:24:43 PM
"The Irish economy has the capacity to continue to grow rapidly without overheating, according to the senior European economist with Goldman Sachs.

Have we heard this one before?

Yes. We heard this 20 years ago and it was absolutely true for 7 years. Of course, the economy will eventually overheat in 2023, if we haven't learned anything, but there should be good progress in the meantime.
Only if the US economy takes off. I don't think it can.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Mike Sheehy on March 18, 2015, 11:01:23 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 18, 2015, 05:17:12 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on March 18, 2015, 03:51:49 PM
Quote from: foxcommander on March 18, 2015, 03:28:02 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 18, 2015, 03:24:43 PM
"The Irish economy has the capacity to continue to grow rapidly without overheating, according to the senior European economist with Goldman Sachs.

Have we heard this one before?

Yes. We heard this 20 years ago and it was absolutely true for 7 years. Of course, the economy will eventually overheat in 2023, if we haven't learned anything, but there should be good progress in the meantime.
Only if the US economy takes off. I don't think it can.

What is your definition of "takes off" ?


Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on April 14, 2015, 11:01:04 AM
And on it goes......

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/greece-ready-to-default-if-deal-not-made-say-officials-1.2174510 (http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/greece-ready-to-default-if-deal-not-made-say-officials-1.2174510)

......The warning of an imminent default could be a negotiating tactic, reflecting the government's wish to extract the best possible conditions from Greece's creditors, but it underlined the reality that state coffers are emptying fast.

Unprofessional tactics
Default is a prospect for which other European governments, irritated at what they see as the unprofessional tactics and rhetoric of the Greek government, have also begun to make contingency plans.....
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on April 15, 2015, 05:31:48 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0415/694275-ecb-meeting/ (http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0415/694275-ecb-meeting/)

Draghi attacked by protestor throwing 'paper and glitter'. It isn't clear whether either were printed by the ECB.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on April 15, 2015, 05:46:53 PM
Quote from: Mike Sheehy on March 18, 2015, 11:01:23 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 18, 2015, 05:17:12 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on March 18, 2015, 03:51:49 PM
Quote from: foxcommander on March 18, 2015, 03:28:02 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 18, 2015, 03:24:43 PM
"The Irish economy has the capacity to continue to grow rapidly without overheating, according to the senior European economist with Goldman Sachs.

Have we heard this one before?

Yes. We heard this 20 years ago and it was absolutely true for 7 years. Of course, the economy will eventually overheat in 2023, if we haven't learned anything, but there should be good progress in the meantime.
Only if the US economy takes off. I don't think it can.

What is your definition of "takes off" ?
Wage inflation of 3%+ for more than a year.
Just not possible under the current trickle up system.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on April 18, 2015, 04:06:20 PM
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/exclusive-chopra-says-ecbs-threats-to-ireland-were-outrageous-31152447.html (http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/exclusive-chopra-says-ecbs-threats-to-ireland-were-outrageous-31152447.html)

THE European Central Bank acted in an "outrageous" manner and went beyond its remit when it pressured Ireland to commit to years of austerity, according to Ajai Chopra.


Just as well Chopra stood up to the dastardly ECB and refused to become part of the Troika, which imposed everything from Pension raids to Water charges on us.


...Mr Chopra reiterated that it was unfair for Irish taxpayers to suffer the cost of bailing out the banks when senior bondholders got their money back.

"The IMF staff right from the beginning was very much in favour of imposing losses on senior bondholders. The EU partners were dead against it, especially the ECB," he said.

"The reason given by the Europeans was exaggerated. Yes, there would have been spill-overs. It would not have been so much of a disaster, but the Europeans were just terrified about the implications for bank funding markets."....
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on April 18, 2015, 04:26:02 PM
Quote from: muppet on April 18, 2015, 04:06:20 PM
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/exclusive-chopra-says-ecbs-threats-to-ireland-were-outrageous-31152447.html (http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/exclusive-chopra-says-ecbs-threats-to-ireland-were-outrageous-31152447.html)

THE European Central Bank acted in an "outrageous" manner and went beyond its remit when it pressured Ireland to commit to years of austerity, according to Ajai Chopra.


Just as well Chopra stood up to the dastardly ECB and refused to become part of the Troika, which imposed everything from Pension raids to Water charges on us.


...Mr Chopra reiterated that it was unfair for Irish taxpayers to suffer the cost of bailing out the banks when senior bondholders got their money back.

"The IMF staff right from the beginning was very much in favour of imposing losses on senior bondholders. The EU partners were dead against it, especially the ECB," he said.

"The reason given by the Europeans was exaggerated. Yes, there would have been spill-overs. It would not have been so much of a disaster, but the Europeans were just terrified about the implications for bank funding markets."....


Trichet didn't have the balls to stand up to the markets. One of the reasons is because the Euro was so poorly designed. It was assumed there would never be any defaults and there are no rules on how to wind up dud banks. So when the shit hit the fan Trichet  pandered to markets and loaded sovereigns like Ireland with bank losses. Now over 2 trillion euro in bonds have a negative yield which means people buying them will get less out than they put in.

And the mess is pan Europe now.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on April 18, 2015, 04:31:46 PM
Quote from: seafoid on April 18, 2015, 04:26:02 PM
Quote from: muppet on April 18, 2015, 04:06:20 PM
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/exclusive-chopra-says-ecbs-threats-to-ireland-were-outrageous-31152447.html (http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/exclusive-chopra-says-ecbs-threats-to-ireland-were-outrageous-31152447.html)

THE European Central Bank acted in an "outrageous" manner and went beyond its remit when it pressured Ireland to commit to years of austerity, according to Ajai Chopra.


Just as well Chopra stood up to the dastardly ECB and refused to become part of the Troika, which imposed everything from Pension raids to Water charges on us.


...Mr Chopra reiterated that it was unfair for Irish taxpayers to suffer the cost of bailing out the banks when senior bondholders got their money back.

"The IMF staff right from the beginning was very much in favour of imposing losses on senior bondholders. The EU partners were dead against it, especially the ECB," he said.

"The reason given by the Europeans was exaggerated. Yes, there would have been spill-overs. It would not have been so much of a disaster, but the Europeans were just terrified about the implications for bank funding markets."....


Trichet didn't have the balls to stand up to the markets. One of the reasons is because the Euro was so poorly designed. It was assumed there would never be any defaults and there are no rules on how to wind up dud banks. So when the shit hit the fan Trichet  pandered to markets and loaded sovereigns like Ireland with bank losses. Now over 2 trillion euro in bonds have a negative yield which means people buying them will get less out than they put in.

And the mess is pan Europe now.

German yields now around zero. Irish private pensions, which have already been raided by the levy, and the the cap, are totally screwed now.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on April 18, 2015, 07:05:49 PM
Quote from: muppet on April 18, 2015, 04:31:46 PM
Quote from: seafoid on April 18, 2015, 04:26:02 PM
Quote from: muppet on April 18, 2015, 04:06:20 PM
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/exclusive-chopra-says-ecbs-threats-to-ireland-were-outrageous-31152447.html (http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/exclusive-chopra-says-ecbs-threats-to-ireland-were-outrageous-31152447.html)

THE European Central Bank acted in an "outrageous" manner and went beyond its remit when it pressured Ireland to commit to years of austerity, according to Ajai Chopra.


Just as well Chopra stood up to the dastardly ECB and refused to become part of the Troika, which imposed everything from Pension raids to Water charges on us.


...Mr Chopra reiterated that it was unfair for Irish taxpayers to suffer the cost of bailing out the banks when senior bondholders got their money back.

"The IMF staff right from the beginning was very much in favour of imposing losses on senior bondholders. The EU partners were dead against it, especially the ECB," he said.

"The reason given by the Europeans was exaggerated. Yes, there would have been spill-overs. It would not have been so much of a disaster, but the Europeans were just terrified about the implications for bank funding markets."....


Trichet didn't have the balls to stand up to the markets. One of the reasons is because the Euro was so poorly designed. It was assumed there would never be any defaults and there are no rules on how to wind up dud banks. So when the shit hit the fan Trichet  pandered to markets and loaded sovereigns like Ireland with bank losses. Now over 2 trillion euro in bonds have a negative yield which means people buying them will get less out than they put in.

And the mess is pan Europe now.

German yields now around zero. Irish private pensions, which have already been raided by the levy, and the the cap, are totally screwed now.
There is just too much debt in the system, Muppet. Yields are at all time lows because of this.
And new debt is added every day.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on April 18, 2015, 09:34:02 PM
I think they are running out of road for that much kicked can........

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-18/ecb-s-draghi-says-urgent-that-greece-strikes-deal-with-creditors (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-18/ecb-s-draghi-says-urgent-that-greece-strikes-deal-with-creditors)

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi urged Greece to work quickly toward an agreement with its creditors to curb a deepening financial crisis and quash doubts over its membership of the euro.

Even as he warned investors against dumping the single currency, Draghi said Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras's government must do "much more work" to show it can satisfy the terms of its 240 billion-euro ($259 billion) bailout program.

"It's urgent," Draghi told reporters in Washington on Saturday during meetings of the International Monetary Fund. "We all want Greece to succeed. The answer is in the hands of the Greek government."

Draghi made his call for action after Greek government bonds suffered their worst week since Tsipras's January election. The government's anti-austerity rhetoric is clashing with demands from its European peers to take more steps to revamp its debt-laden economy before they will release another tranche of aid.

At stake is Greece's ability to avoid defaulting on its debts and stay in the 19-nation euro area. The brinkmanship overshadowed the Washington talks of global finance chiefs as delegates from outside of the euro area urged a speedy resolution.

"We have been clear in our conversations with all parties there is an urgent need to come together around a comprehensive approach," U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew said Friday. "Time is of the essence" and "Greece has to take the lead."

Euro-area finance ministers are next due to discuss progress on Greece at their meeting on April 24 in the Latvian capital of Riga. A deal is unlikely to be ready by then, Dutch Finance Minister and Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem told reporters in Washington on Friday.

For all the strains, Draghi cautioned investors not to bet against the 16-year-old single currency. "It's pointless to go short on the euro," he said. "Do it."

He also said that Greek banks continue to meet the requirements for Emergency Liquidity Assistance, a financial lifeline the ECB decides on each week. The funding has so far helped avoid a financial meltdown as the wrangling over aid has gone on.
"ELA will continue to be given to the banks if they're judged to be solvent and if they have adequate collateral which is the case now," Draghi said.

In an interview in Washington, ECB Governing Council member Vitas Vasiliauskas said the central bank shouldn't extend its assistance beyond the summer.

"The situation in Greece means that we should have a limit until summer for ELA," Vasiliauskas said on Saturday. "Everyone understands what ELA means, it's a temporary measure to give the banks liquidity."

Draghi said any package of Greek policies should focus on "growth, fairness, fiscal sustainability and financial stability."

While Europe is better equipped to deal with any fallout in financial markets if Greek negotiations fail than it was when it first fell into crisis, he said the region is still in "uncharted waters."
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: armaghniac on April 19, 2015, 12:55:57 AM
QuoteThere is just too much debt in the system, Muppet. Yields are at all time lows because of this.

Yields are low because the ECB are printing money because there is too much debt in the system. A surplus of debt would tend increase interest rates.


QuoteI think they are running out of road for that much kicked can........

I suppose they would justify themselves that if Greece goes down now, the knock on effect on Ireland or Spain would be very limited and indeed Greece itself would probably do OK as they now have a surplus.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on April 19, 2015, 07:12:48 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on April 19, 2015, 12:55:57 AM
QuoteThere is just too much debt in the system, Muppet. Yields are at all time lows because of this.

Yields are low because the ECB are printing money because there is too much debt in the system. A surplus of debt would tend increase interest rates.


QuoteI think they are running out of road for that much kicked can........

I suppose they would justify themselves that if Greece goes down now, the knock on effect on Ireland or Spain would be very limited and indeed Greece itself would probably do OK as they now have a surplus.

It would normally armaghniac but we are in uncharted waters now debt wise.

Chart here on growth of global debt
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4df99d28-4590-11e4-ab10-00144feabdc0.html

Oversupply and limited demand for investment- the result is ultra low interest rates

"The background level of real interest rates is set not by central banks but by supply and demand. Low real rates suggest lots of people are trying to save, and particularly in safe assets, while few people are trying to borrow and invest. Only with rates at a very low level can enough borrowers be found to mop up all the savings."
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/da0413f8-27cb-11e4-ae44-00144feabdc0.html


QE only makes it worse.
I think QE is deflationary . there is no evidence that it generates sustainable growth.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on April 21, 2015, 08:59:11 AM
http://www.businesspost.ie/#!story/Home/News/Government+debt+falls+to+110%25+of+GDP+in+2014%2C+CSO+says/id/51491701-9455-34df-de78-550471956556 (http://www.businesspost.ie/#!story/Home/News/Government+debt+falls+to+110%25+of+GDP+in+2014%2C+CSO+says/id/51491701-9455-34df-de78-550471956556) (paywall)

Government debt as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) fell to 110 per cent last year from 123 per cent on the back of better-than-expected economic growth and the early repayment of a portion of IMF loans, the CSO said.

The government finance statistics for 2014, released by the Central Statistics Office, showed that the general government deficit totalled €7.63 billion or 4.1 per cent of GDP, down from 5.8 per cent of GDP a year earlier.

Government revenue increased by more than six per cent to €64.7 billion while expenditure rose by 1.7 per cent to €72.3 billion, the CSO said.

Taxes and social contributions accounted for 88 per cent of government revenue last year while social benefits accounted for nearly 40 per cent of government spending.

Net government debt last year totalled 89.9 per cent of GDP, down from 92.1 per cent in 2013.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Rossfan on April 21, 2015, 09:58:05 AM
Probably all frittered away over the next 2 years on vote buying for the G E.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on April 27, 2015, 08:22:58 PM
Interesting article:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-this-debt-addicted-world-could-go-the-way-of-the-mayans-2015-04-27?dist=countdown (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-this-debt-addicted-world-could-go-the-way-of-the-mayans-2015-04-27?dist=countdown)

Nowadays many countries' social and political structure relies on debt-driven consumption and increasing levels of entitlements.

Blame the policy makers. To drive economic growth, boost living standards, and manage growing inequality, policy makers have used debt and monetary tools to create economic activity. This has resulted in excessive borrowing and imbalances in global trade and capital.

Governments played a part, too, allowing the buildup of social entitlements to win or maintain office. Private companies also encouraged the growth of employee benefits to avoid immediate pressure on wages as well as boost current earnings and share prices.

But such expensive commitments were rarely fully funded.

Rather than deal with the fundamental issues, policy makers substituted public spending, financed by government debt or central banks, to boost demand. Strong growth and higher inflation, they hoped or believed, would correct the problems.

Barron's Buzz: Who's optimistic now?(2:57)
This week's Barron's features the result of a survey of money managers and a look at Amazon's cloud services. Barron's Jack Hough discusses. Photo: Getty Images

The current state of affairs echoes Archaeologist Arthur Demarest's observation about the Mayan civilization: "Society had evolved too many elites, all demanding exotic baubles...all needed quetzal feathers, jade, obsidian, fine chert, and animal furs. Nobility is expensive, non-productive and parasitic, siphoning away too much of society's energy to satisfy its frivolous cravings."

Seven years into this crisis, the level of debt in major economies has increased. Global imbalances have decreased, but primarily as a result of slower economic growth. Countries such as China and Germany are reluctant to inflate their domestic economies, moving away from their export-driven model. Major borrowers, such as the U.S., refuse to reduce spending and bring their public finances into order. Enthusiasm for fundamental financial reform has dissipated, driven by concern that lower credit growth will decrease economic growth.

Policy makers refused to acknowledge that available fiscal and monetary policy tools cannot address the underlying problems. They repeatedly use complex jargon, obscure mathematics and tired ideologies to disguise their failures and limitations. Perhaps, as the writer G. K. Chesterton suggested: "It isn't that they can't see the solution. It is that they can't see the problem."

The policies, now centered around debt monetization entailing zero interest-rates and quantitative easing (QE), have potentially destructive side effects.

Punishing frugality and thrift, and rewarding borrowing, profligacy, excess, and waste.
The resultant loss of purchasing power effectively represents a tax on holders of money and sovereign debt. It redistributes real resources from savers to borrowers and the issuer of the currency, resulting in diminution of wealth over time.

Debt monetization also creates moral hazards. Low rates and easy availability of credit reduces market discipline. Borrowers face less pressure to cut back on their debts. Low borrowing costs allow unproductive investment to be maintained. It reduces incentives for governments to bring public finances under control.

Ultimately, the policies being used to manage the debt crisis punish frugality and thrift, and reward borrowing, profligacy, excess, and waste.

The policies might have been defensible if successful. But evidence to date suggests that policy makers are unlikely to succeed. The Bank for International Settlements and other central bankers now stress the limits to monetary policy in boosting economic growth without addressing the underlying issues.

Ordinary people fear the consequences on their lives from the Great Unraveling. The political and social response is likely to be volatile. It was the fear and disaffection of middle-class citizens who had lost their savings in the Great Depression that gave rise to fascism.

Governments have shown little willingness to inform the electorate about the magnitude of the economic problems, the lack of solutions, and cost of possible corrective actions. Politicians have taken regard of historian Simon Schama's comment that no one ever won an election by telling voters it had come to the end of its "providential allotment of inexhaustible plenty." In a moment of unusual candor, Prime Minister of Luxembourg and Head of the Euro-Group Jean-Claude Junker stated: "We all know what to do, we just don't know how to get re-elected after we have done it."

Precious political and economic capital has been wasted with inadequate policies that have side effects and decrease chances of a recovery. For policy makers everywhere, to paraphrase Alexander Solzhenitsyn, the "permanent lie [has become] the only safe form of existence."

Satyajit Das is a former banker and author of "Extreme Money" and "Traders, Guns & Money."
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on April 28, 2015, 04:54:27 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/0428/697213-spring-economic-statement/ (http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/0428/697213-spring-economic-statement/)

The Minister for Finance has said the Government would be in a position to introduce expansionary budgets from now until 2020, if it is deemed prudent to do so.

In the Government's Spring Economic Statement, Michael Noonan said the department was forecasting that employment would pass the two million people at work by next year.

He said the economy would replace all of the jobs lost during the downturn by 2018 and, in total, between 2015 and 2020, 200,000 jobs would be created.

Net outward migration was expected to cease next year with a return to inward migration from 2017 onwards.

Following GDP growth of nearly 5% last year, the Department of Finance is projecting GDP growth of 4% this year, with positive contributions from both exports and domestic demand. 

Mr Noonan said that the public finances are under control with the deficit falling below 3% this year, while debt levels are set to move down towards the European average in the next few years.

The minister added that net migration is expected to stop next year with a return to inward migration from 2017 onwards.

Speaking about budgeting, Mr Noonan said there would be no return to the boom and bust model of the past.

He also said the Government was considering a range of options to strengthen the mortgage arrears framework in order to ensure that families in long-term arrears can find a solution.

He added that there would be a further announcement on this in the coming weeks.

Mr Noonan said that the number of arrears cases was falling but that there were still 37,000 accounts in long-term arrears of over two years.

The minister said there would be a particular focus on enhancing the role of the Insolvency Service and the range of solutions that become available through an insolvency arrangement.

Minister Noonan said the national debt peaked in 2013 and is on a firm downward path, and is expected to drop below 100% of GDP and move towards the EU average in the years ahead.

Mr Noonan said that the value of the State's investment in AIB, Bank of Ireland and Permanent TSB continues to rise and he added that it is not the State's intention to remain a holder of its banking investments in the long term.

"The sale of 25% of PTSB that concluded yesterday, further improves the position and I am fully confident that all the taxpayers' money investment in AIB, Bank of Ireland and PTSB will be fully recovered," the minister told the Dáil.

The minister also stressed that the 12.5% Corporation Tax rate will stay. "This is a red line for the Government", he stated.

"We have no reluctance to continue, in parallel with our European colleagues, in reforming Corporation Tax, but we will not, as many in opposition advocate, increase the 12.5% rate," he said.

The Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform said the Government is looking to increase current spending by between €600 and €750 million for 2016.

Brendan Howlin said the expansion would allow the Government to deal with underlying demographic pressures in key areas such as social protection, education and health.

He said, including these additional allocations, Government spending - excluding debt interest - would come in at just under a third of gross domestic product.

Mr Howlin reiterated the Government's commitment to pension provision.

He told the Dáil the country currently spends over €6.5 billion annually on pension provision.

He said this was projected to increase by €200 million per year to 2026 as the population ages.


However, he said the Government was committed to pension provision and there was no threat to current schemes.

Mr Howlin also told the Dáil the way is clear to enter talks with unions on public service pay.

He warned, however, that it was prudent to plan for an orderly unwinding of the emergency provisions that had been introduced to deal with the hole in the public finances, which included pay cuts for public servants.

The public service had seen the beginnings of pay awards in the private sector over the past two years, he added.

Both ministers said the Government was aiming to have between €1.2 and €1.5 billion of fiscal space for Budget 2016.

They said the resources would be allocated on an equal basis between additional spending and reducing the tax burden on low and middle income earners. 

Additional investment may also be possible arising from reduced spending on unemployment payments as the numbers at work grow.




On the first bit in bold, no doubt they have no intention of return the money to the taxpayers.

And the 2nd point, they are increasing public spending on public pensions while paying for it by raiding only private pensions.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on April 28, 2015, 05:22:40 PM
An end to boom and bust is incoherent.
It's like saying no biscuits ever again.
In order to make it happen we would all need new brains.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: armaghniac on April 28, 2015, 05:30:18 PM
Quote from: muppet on April 28, 2015, 04:54:27 PM
On the first bit in bold, no doubt they have no intention of return the money to the taxpayers.

And the 2nd point, they are increasing public spending on public pensions while paying for it by raiding only private pensions.

Well the money will come back to the government, as the sale of part of  PTSB yesterday showed, whether you think that is a benefit to taxpayers is a moot point.

There is a time difference here, they raided the private pensions in the past and will pay the increases in the future. A bigger problem for private pensions now is low returns on bonds and the like, and of course almost everyone receiving a private pension also gets the OAP.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on April 28, 2015, 05:41:38 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on April 28, 2015, 05:30:18 PM
Quote from: muppet on April 28, 2015, 04:54:27 PM
On the first bit in bold, no doubt they have no intention of return the money to the taxpayers.

And the 2nd point, they are increasing public spending on public pensions while paying for it by raiding only private pensions.

Well the money will come back to the government, as the sale of part of  PTSB yesterday showed, whether you think that is a benefit to taxpayers is a moot point.

There is a time difference here, they raided the private pensions in the past and will pay the increases in the future. A bigger problem for private pensions now is low returns on bonds and the like, and of course almost everyone receiving a private pension also gets the OAP.

The private pensions are taxed differently to public pensions, transferring money from the former to the latter.

I agree about the bonds. It is disastrous.

As for the final point, is that called a 'consolidated pension' or something like that? The OAP is for everyone, but I think that is changing too. In future it may only be for those who didn't pay anything into a retirement fund. Don't get me wrong, you obviously can't leave people without an income in their retirement. But those in the PS who can afford to pay their way should be treated equally.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on April 28, 2015, 06:48:34 PM
Quote from: muppet on April 28, 2015, 05:41:38 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on April 28, 2015, 05:30:18 PM
Quote from: muppet on April 28, 2015, 04:54:27 PM
On the first bit in bold, no doubt they have no intention of return the money to the taxpayers.

And the 2nd point, they are increasing public spending on public pensions while paying for it by raiding only private pensions.

Well the money will come back to the government, as the sale of part of  PTSB yesterday showed, whether you think that is a benefit to taxpayers is a moot point.

There is a time difference here, they raided the private pensions in the past and will pay the increases in the future. A bigger problem for private pensions now is low returns on bonds and the like, and of course almost everyone receiving a private pension also gets the OAP.

The private pensions are taxed differently to public pensions, transferring money from the former to the latter.

I agree about the bonds. It is disastrous.

As for the final point, is that called a 'consolidated pension' or something like that? The OAP is for everyone, but I think that is changing too. In future it may only be for those who didn't pay anything into a retirement fund. Don't get me wrong, you obviously can't leave people without an income in their retirement. But those in the PS who can afford to pay their way should be treated equally.
The bonds are overpriced because there is so much money looking for a return putting safety over anything else. There probably won't be any growth globally for a long time.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on May 07, 2015, 02:41:15 PM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11588763/Greece-could-use-parallel-currency-as-desperation-grows.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11588763/Greece-could-use-parallel-currency-as-desperation-grows.html)

Greece could start using a "parallel currency" to pay its civil servants if it runs out of cash, one of the European Central Bank's board members has suggested. His comments come as the country scrambles to reach a deal with international creditors and avoid a default.
Highlighting the desperate situation faced by the country, Yves Merch, a member of the ECB's executive board and governor of Luxembourg's central bank, told Spanish newspaper La Vanguardia that Greece could resort to using "exceptional tools" to pay its obligations.

"There are intermediate solutions circulating, such as the issuance of a parallel currency or IOUs," he told the newspaper. "All these measures are among the exceptional tools that any government can consider if it has no other options. But all of them have a high cost."

The ECB has already analysed how such a scenario could play out. Officials told Reuters in April that creating a virtual second currency within the eurozone might not be enough to keep Greece in the 19-nation bloc.

Analysis showed around 30pc of Greeks would end up receiving such "IOUs" rather than cash, which would put further pressure on Greek banks as workers dipped into their their savings.


Billions of euros have been pulled out of Greek banks since the end of last year, which has left banks reliant on a drip-feed of liquidity from the ECB. The central bank raised its emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) to Greece's banks by €2bn to €79bn on Wednesday, in a sign of further progress between Greece and its creditors.

However, a spokesman for the Greek government said "red lines" on raising the minimum wage and restoring pension payments remained. Gabriel Sakellaridis told reporters that the situation remained criticial, adding that the country was committed to servicing its obligations.

The country repaid €200m to the International Monetary Fund on Wednesday as part of its bail-out agreement, but faces a more daunting €750m repayment later this month.

In a sign of defiance, Alexis Tsipras, Greece's prime minister, tweeted last night that he would meet the 600 cleaning ladies who have been re-hired by the Syriza-led government after being made redundant by the previous administration.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on May 12, 2015, 01:11:04 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0512/700509-greece/ (http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0512/700509-greece/)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: seafoid on May 12, 2015, 08:35:46 PM
the Offaly mafia

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/why-banking-inquiry-is-no-more-than-the-show-trial-of-brian-cowen-31209738.html

I saw a thing in he FT a while ago about voters from the home town of the Turkish Prime Minister who refused to believe he could be corrupt since no great man from the town could be corrupt. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: macdanger2 on May 29, 2015, 04:57:30 PM
http://www.broadsheet.ie/2015/05/28/redacteds-1-25-interest-rate/

For anyone who's interested in reading what can't be reported. It certainly seems like something which needs an investigation

Mods: I presume posting the link is okay,.please delete if it's not
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on May 29, 2015, 05:03:37 PM
No comment from me. But this comment at the bottom of the link above is interesting:

Scary update:

Solicitors acting for Denis O'Brien have asked us to remove this post asserting that it is a breach of a High Court Order [O'Brien Vs RTÉ]. They gave a 7pm [Thursday] deadline or they would begin injunction proceedings. We have replied that article 15.12 of the constitution allows all Dáil statements "wherever published" to be privileged and we currently await their response.


O'Brien appears to have found a way around Dáil privilege. But I think it will blow up in his face. In the internet era that sh*te doesn't seem to work like it used to.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Rossfan on May 29, 2015, 05:51:31 PM
That O'Brien cnut needs putting in his place. >:(
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on May 29, 2015, 05:54:07 PM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Streisand_effect (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Streisand_effect)

Will the Streisand Effect become O'Brien's Law in Ireland?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on June 09, 2015, 05:06:32 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0609/706871-greece-talks/ (http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0609/706871-greece-talks/)

Geece moves excruciatingly closer and closer to obvliion.

Meanwhile the populism continues: http://www.businesspost.ie/#!story/Comment/Opinion/David+shapes+up+to+Goliath/id/2f65ffda-91e6-4b75-b7ee-e6932cd7d65f (http://www.businesspost.ie/#!story/Comment/Opinion/David+shapes+up+to+Goliath/id/2f65ffda-91e6-4b75-b7ee-e6932cd7d65f)

Something important is happening in Belfast and Athens. Sinn Féin and Syriza are taking a stand against austerity.

I am not so sure Gerry will want to be linked to Syriza if Greece goes wallop, which could happen in the next few months.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on June 11, 2015, 01:31:45 PM
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33090373 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33090373)

Greece's state broadcaster ERT back on air after two years

Greece's state broadcaster ERT went back on air on Thursday, two years after being closed down under austerity measures.

The radio and television channels shut in June 2013 after the then-government called it "a haven of waste".

The left-wing Syriza party made the reinstatement of ERT a key pledge in January's election, which it won.

The party said all of the more than 2,600 staff made redundant in 2013 have been offered jobs by the station.



The timing is a bit odd, to say the least.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Hardy on June 11, 2015, 03:13:21 PM
"A haven of waste." Excellent. And it's called ERT. Jumble the letters of ERT and the words of "a haven of waste".

Anyway, I gather the Greeks are buying new cars like crazy. I presume they're anticipating the resurrection of the Drachma. I hope they're buying biofuel versions.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on June 11, 2015, 03:18:03 PM
Quote from: Hardy on June 11, 2015, 03:13:21 PM
"A haven of waste." Excellent. And it's called ERT. Jumble the letters of ERT and the words of "a haven of waste".

Anyway, I gather the Greeks are buying new cars like crazy. I presume they're anticipating the resurrection of the Drachma. I hope they're buying biofuel versions.

If that was Ireland, the first question you would ask is qui bono from the car buying.

It would be ironic if it were mainly German cars.

Anyway, with the new station they will be able to watch Top Gear in their tents.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Rossfan on June 11, 2015, 03:53:32 PM
Quote from: muppet on June 11, 2015, 01:31:45 PM
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33090373 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33090373)

Greece's state broadcaster ERT back on air after two years

Greece's state broadcaster ERT went back on air on Thursday, two years after being closed down under austerity measures.

The radio and television channels shut in June 2013 after the then-government called it "a haven of waste".

The left-wing Syriza party made the reinstatement of ERT a key pledge in January's election, which it won.

The party said all of the more than 2,600 staff made redundant in 2013 have been offered jobs by the station.



The timing is a bit odd, to say the least.
Are they planning a coup emergency go it alone Government, abolish Parliament/Elections etc and need a propoganda tool to keep the masses "informed"??
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Denn Forever on June 11, 2015, 04:03:13 PM
Should Ireland have kept our eyes open and not blinked?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on June 11, 2015, 04:21:03 PM
Quote from: Denn Forever on June 11, 2015, 04:03:13 PM
Should Ireland have kept our eyes open and not blinked?

Definitely, but after the bank guarantee we had a poor hand, and after Honohan announced the IMF were in town, we had no hand.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: armaghniac on June 11, 2015, 05:57:57 PM
IMF head back to Washington.
Get off the pot time for Greece
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b913c958-101f-11e5-ad5a-00144feabdc0.html
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: macdanger2 on June 18, 2015, 10:45:39 PM
Looks like Greece are getting closer to the exit unless someone blinks. Will be interesting to see the fallout from it - the euro will surely take a bashing from it as it'll no longer be a permanent currency.

The Greeks can't end up much worse off than they have been for the past 5 years so while it might be more difficult in the short term, it might be better for them in the long run.

Heard a fella on Prime Time earlier saying that it won't have as big an effect on the economy / banking system as it would have a couple of years ago as the debt is now govt debt instead of bank debt - basically private debt has once again and on a much larger scale, become public debt......
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on June 19, 2015, 09:09:43 PM
http://america.aljazeera.com/opinions/2015/6/germany-is-bluffing-on-greece.html (http://america.aljazeera.com/opinions/2015/6/germany-is-bluffing-on-greece.html)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Denn Forever on June 20, 2015, 04:15:26 PM
Will Greece leave the euro? 

Are  they being harshly  treated?  If Ireland had to tighten their  belt in  a manner being  asked  of Greece, what would Ireland have to do.  Are they protesting too much?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: From the Bunker on June 20, 2015, 06:02:37 PM
If you ain't got nothing you ain't got nothing to lose as the song goes!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on June 20, 2015, 08:16:37 PM
Quote from: Denn Forever on June 20, 2015, 04:15:26 PM
Will Greece leave the euro? 

Are  they being harshly  treated?  If Ireland had to tighten their  belt in  a manner being  asked  of Greece, what would Ireland have to do.  Are they protesting too much?

Ireland's debt was mainly bank debt that we should have let go bust, but we weren't allowed to.

It is interesting to see the head of The Greek Central Bank making statements last week that really pissed off his Government. It reminded me of Honohan shafting our Government by announcing the bailout. We now know who the Central Banks really work for, and it isn't us.

Greece's debt is mainly Government liabilities such as pensions and public service pay. They have elected a left-wing Government who promised to maintain those pensions and pay. Those who bankroll the EU (mainly Germany) have no appetite to pay for all of that and the Greeks can't afford it. Hence the impasse.

If the Greeks win, the rest of the PIGS (including us) are very likely to elect hard line left-wing governments who will promise higher pensions and pay for public servants. Thereby, ironically, sending us all straight into Greek territory.

The EU won't allow that. I suspect a little bit more of kicking the can, for a couple of more months maybe, but there is very little road left. Either the Greek Government will climb down, or fall, or else we will have the Grexit. But I think it will be one of the first two.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: muppet on June 26, 2015, 03:26:24 PM
http://businessetc.thejournal.ie/interesting-facts-greece-economy-2181313-Jun2015/ (http://businessetc.thejournal.ie/interesting-facts-greece-economy-2181313-Jun2015/)

Greece finally gained independence from the Ottoman Empire in 1830 after Great Britain, France, and Russia intervened to help out in the War of Greek Independence. (Fun fact: even poet Lord Byron joined in to support Greece.)
The country has spent 90 out of 196 years since then in financial crisis.
Corruption costs Greece about 8% to 10% of GDP per year.

A Brookings Institute study by Daniel Kaufmann estimated that corruption cost Greece about 8% of gross domestic product per year (some have estimated it as high as 10%). Notably, a large bulk of it involves ordinary citizens doing day-to-day activities.
"If Greece had better control of corruption — not to Swedish standards, but even at Spain's level — it would have had a smaller budget deficit by 4% of gross domestic product" on average over the past five years, Kaufmann wrote back in 2010.
A 2014 study by the European Commission said Greece was the most corrupt country in the European Union — on par with China.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: Esmarelda on June 26, 2015, 03:56:23 PM
Quote from: muppet on June 20, 2015, 08:16:37 PM
Quote from: Denn Forever on June 20, 2015, 04:15:26 PM
Will Greece leave the euro? 

Are  they being harshly  treated?  If Ireland had to tighten their  belt in  a manner being  asked  of Greece, what would Ireland have to do.  Are they protesting too much?

Ireland's debt was mainly bank debt that we should have let go bust, but we weren't allowed to.

It is interesting to see the head of The Greek Central Bank making statements last week that really pissed off his Government. It reminded me of Honohan shafting our Government by announcing the bailout. We now know who the Central Banks really work for, and it isn't us.

Greece's debt is mainly Government liabilities such as pensions and public service pay. They have elected a left-wing Government who promised to maintain those pensions and pay. Those who bankroll the EU (mainly Germany) have no appetite to pay for all of that and the Greeks can't afford it. Hence the impasse.

If the Greeks win, the rest of the PIGS (including us) are very likely to elect hard line left-wing governments who will promise higher pensions and pay for public servants. Thereby, ironically, sending us all straight into Greek territory.

The EU won't allow that. I suspect a little bit more of kicking the can, for a couple of more months maybe, but there is very little road left. Either the Greek Government will climb down, or fall, or else we will have the Grexit. But I think it will be one of the first two.
Do you have the stats on this? Brian Hayes was on telly telling us that the other European banks were creditors of the Greeks. He didn't quantify it though.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Give us the f*cking moolah!...)
Post by: muppet on June 26, 2015, 04:54:48 PM
Quote from: Esmarelda on June 26, 2015, 03:56:23 PM
Quote from: muppet on June 20, 2015, 08:16:37 PM
Quote from: Denn Forever on June 20, 2015, 04:15:26 PM
Will Greece leave the euro? 

Are  they being harshly  treated?  If Ireland had to tighten their  belt in  a manner being  asked  of Greece, what would Ireland have to do.  Are they protesting too much?

Ireland's debt was mainly bank debt that we should have let go bust, but we weren't allowed to.

It is interesting to see the head of The Greek Central Bank making statements last week that really pissed off his Government. It reminded me of Honohan shafting our Government by announcing the bailout. We now know who the Central Banks really work for, and it isn't us.

Greece's debt is mainly Government liabilities such as pensions and public service pay. They have elected a left-wing Government who promised to maintain those pensions and pay. Those who bankroll the EU (mainly Germany) have no appetite to pay for all of that and the Greeks can't afford it. Hence the impasse.

If the Greeks win, the rest of the PIGS (including us) are very likely to elect hard line left-wing governments who will promise higher pensions and pay for public servants. Thereby, ironically, sending us all straight into Greek territory.

The EU won't allow that. I suspect a little bit more of kicking the can, for a couple of more months maybe, but there is very little road left. Either the Greek Government will climb down, or fall, or else we will have the Grexit. But I think it will be one of the first two.
Do you have the stats on this? Brian Hayes was on telly telling us that the other European banks were creditors of the Greeks. He didn't quantify it though.

They are not mutually exclusive. The ECB has been bankrolling the Greek banks who along with the IMF and the EU have been paying to keep Greece afloat for years. One of the main reasons is that the Greeks don't raise enough taxes to pay for their PS & pensions.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: armaghniac on June 26, 2015, 11:30:18 PM
Greeks to call referendum on deal.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: muppet on June 26, 2015, 11:44:08 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on June 26, 2015, 11:30:18 PM
Greeks to call referendum on deal.

That will put the cat among the pigeons.  ;D

If the creditors don't agree we get the Grexit and they will be seen as anti-democratic into the bargain, not that this has bothered them before.

If the creditors agree and the Greeks vote no, then what?

If the creditors agree and the Greeks vote yes, then the Government will say you got what you wanted. Suck it up.

Tsipras washing his hands of it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: armaghniac on June 26, 2015, 11:49:30 PM
I think the referendum is in a week, after the deadline, so there has to be an extension even until then.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: muppet on June 26, 2015, 11:52:41 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on June 26, 2015, 11:49:30 PM
I think the referendum is in a week, after the deadline, so there has to be an extension even until then.

Exactly. If there is a default they will blame the creditors and call it anti-democratic, and pretend to wash their hands of blame.

I don't know much about Tsipras but Greece could easily end up back under military rule shortly or some other form of chaotic regime.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: muppet on June 26, 2015, 11:54:33 PM
Didn't a previous Greek PM suggest a referendum?

One, Ein, Un etc were not amused if I recall correctly.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: muppet on June 27, 2015, 12:01:39 AM
Quote from: muppet on June 26, 2015, 11:54:33 PM
Didn't a previous Greek PM suggest a referendum?

One, Ein, Un etc were not amused if I recall correctly.

Just Googled it.

It was Papandreou and the G8 called him a madman!

If they haven't changed their tune, it will be default.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: muppet on June 27, 2015, 12:14:31 AM
According to the Telegraph, Greece's Alpha Bank has suspended online banking facilities.

This could get interesting quickly.........
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: muppet on June 27, 2015, 12:22:26 AM
Twitter reporting long queues at ATMs in Athens. It is 2am there so either party season is in full swing or............
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: armaghniac on June 27, 2015, 01:04:54 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CIdhlKPUAAQnfa3.jpg)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: muppet on June 27, 2015, 12:43:52 PM
(https://agenda.weforum.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/150623-average-wage.jpg)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: muppet on June 27, 2015, 12:45:16 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on June 27, 2015, 01:04:54 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CIdhlKPUAAQnfa3.jpg)

There were conflicting reports on twitter last night. Some pictures showed queues like the above, and others showed ATMs with no one around.

It if is a bank run, it is more like a bank brisk walk, or maybe a bank stroll.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: armaghniac on June 27, 2015, 06:04:52 PM
It isn't clear what the Greeks will vote on, as the money is due Tuesday and the Troika are not inclined to cut them any slack.

If I was Greek I'd go to an ATM!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: muppet on June 27, 2015, 09:43:24 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on June 27, 2015, 06:04:52 PM
It isn't clear what the Greeks will vote on, as the money is due Tuesday and the Troika are not inclined to cut them any slack.

If I was Greek I'd go to an ATM!

So would I, except I would wind the date back a few years.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Farrandeelin on June 27, 2015, 11:22:46 PM
If Greece exits the euro, what does it mean for Ireland? Are we fucked big time again?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: muppet on June 27, 2015, 11:30:03 PM
Quote from: Farrandeelin on June 27, 2015, 11:22:46 PM
If Greece exits the euro, what does it mean for Ireland? Are we fucked big time again?

No one really knows. One thing could lead to another that no one foresaw.

But I don't think so. This has been the most talked about 'next Lehman's' ever. It won't be a shock. They owe us €350m, which is fairly small time. The German and French (& hard-pressed Italian & Spanish taxpayers too amazingly) are on the line for way more.

But Tsipras is bonkers. Unless he runs back on his knees in the next two days, he has just f*cked his country royally. Ironically he may have done us, Spain, Italy and Portugal a massive favour. But I doubt that was the plan.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Rossfan on June 27, 2015, 11:41:27 PM
Loonyleftie strikes again :-\
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Franko on June 28, 2015, 10:18:11 AM
Money men playing hard ball now...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33303105
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: armaghniac on June 28, 2015, 06:48:43 PM
Greek banks to close tomorrow,with restrictions on ATMs etc.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Hereiam on June 28, 2015, 11:53:19 PM
The beginning of the end
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: armaghniac on June 29, 2015, 12:55:57 AM
QuoteEuro down as markets open, below $1.10 and £0.70.

I hope anyone changing the Queen's money did so quickly, the Euro is now above Friday against the £ and $.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Canalman on June 29, 2015, 09:20:52 AM
Quote from: Farrandeelin on June 27, 2015, 11:22:46 PM
If Greece exits the euro, what does it mean for Ireland? Are we fucked big time again?

By no means an expert but I think what a "default" means is that the banks etc that were owed money by the Greek state have to face up to the fact with immediate effect that they will get nada. Will affect their books no end and from then on no one really knows what will happen.

Also, sets a possible precedent for countries leaving the Euro/EU when things get hairy........... undermining the Euro as a currency .
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Franko on June 29, 2015, 11:05:31 AM
I notice in this morning's news that German bond yields have fallen sharply as people rush to put their money into so-called 'safe' investments.  Some of the more financially literate here could maybe answer me here - Would Merkel be pushing a tough line with the Greeks knowing that this will be a likely consequence?  I.e. are we in another situation (like we had with RBS deliberately bankrupting solid businesses to make more money) whereby the main players are now set up to gain from a Greek default?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: muppet on June 29, 2015, 03:45:43 PM
http://www.richardcorbett.org.uk/greece-dont-take-it-at-face-value/ (http://www.richardcorbett.org.uk/greece-dont-take-it-at-face-value/)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: muppet on June 29, 2015, 08:54:55 PM
If the vote is YES the Tsipiras and his party are gone. It is not yet certain that the IMF/EU are willing to wait on a vote so it might be too little to late.

If the vote is NO, Tsipiras and co will have been right. But they will be out of the Euro probably.

High stakes stuff.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: magpie seanie on June 30, 2015, 11:28:24 AM
Quote from: muppet on June 29, 2015, 08:54:55 PM
If the vote is YES the Tsipiras and his party are gone. It is not yet certain that the IMF/EU are willing to wait on a vote so it might be too little to late.

If the vote is NO, Tsipiras and co will have been right. But they will be out of the Euro probably.

High stakes stuff.

Yes and while that will mean pain in the short term I think we'll be fighting with each other in queues to book our holidays in Greece next year. They will rocket back to growth pretty quickly (supported by Vladimir of course). Which will make the EU and especially our w**ker politicians look extremely bad.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: muppet on June 30, 2015, 11:34:39 AM
Quote from: magpie seanie on June 30, 2015, 11:28:24 AM
Quote from: muppet on June 29, 2015, 08:54:55 PM
If the vote is YES the Tsipiras and his party are gone. It is not yet certain that the IMF/EU are willing to wait on a vote so it might be too little to late.

If the vote is NO, Tsipiras and co will have been right. But they will be out of the Euro probably.

High stakes stuff.

Yes and while that will mean pain in the short term I think we'll be fighting with each other in queues to book our holidays in Greece next year. They will rocket back to growth pretty quickly (supported by Vladimir of course). Which will make the EU and especially our w**ker politicians look extremely bad.

That will probably happen Seanie, but only after their wealth and standard of living collapses.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: easytiger95 on June 30, 2015, 12:16:09 PM
i think we can safely say that has already happened Muppet. I think the problem for tsipras is that he sold the Greek public a pig in a poke. they were never going to get an end to austerity - ironically our recovery put the nails in their coffin, because  the EU had an example (although it was a very different situation) to point at and say "Look the Irish took their medicine and it worked, you'll have to do it as well."

I think the only outcome of this will be stronger political ties within the Eurozone, and to hell with anyone outside. Downside of that is loss of autonomy, the upside of it for the PIGS will be that the Northern countries will have to recognize that they are in a transfer union, and the Southern states will have to be subsidized for it to work.

there will have to be debt forgiveness somewhere down the line, but a Greece outside the euro gives the ECB etc an example to say toe the line, or that is what will become of you. 

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: ludermor on June 30, 2015, 12:17:09 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on June 30, 2015, 11:28:24 AM
Quote from: muppet on June 29, 2015, 08:54:55 PM
If the vote is YES the Tsipiras and his party are gone. It is not yet certain that the IMF/EU are willing to wait on a vote so it might be too little to late.

If the vote is NO, Tsipiras and co will have been right. But they will be out of the Euro probably.

High stakes stuff.

Yes and while that will mean pain in the short term I think we'll be fighting with each other in queues to book our holidays in Greece next year. They will rocket back to growth pretty quickly (supported by Vladimir of course). Which will make the EU and especially our w**ker politicians look extremely bad.
Not so sure about that, they will have alienated the EU which has to be a huge chuck of trading partners.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: muppet on June 30, 2015, 12:21:45 PM
Quote from: ludermor on June 30, 2015, 12:17:09 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on June 30, 2015, 11:28:24 AM
Quote from: muppet on June 29, 2015, 08:54:55 PM
If the vote is YES the Tsipiras and his party are gone. It is not yet certain that the IMF/EU are willing to wait on a vote so it might be too little to late.

If the vote is NO, Tsipiras and co will have been right. But they will be out of the Euro probably.

High stakes stuff.

Yes and while that will mean pain in the short term I think we'll be fighting with each other in queues to book our holidays in Greece next year. They will rocket back to growth pretty quickly (supported by Vladimir of course). Which will make the EU and especially our w**ker politicians look extremely bad.
Not so sure about that, they will have alienated the EU which has to be a huge chuck of trading partners.

The money always goes to where the returns are. The tourists will go there as it will be the best value and US money will chase the post collapse 5-10% growth.

But if your wealth falls by 40-80%, it takes many years at 5-10% growth to recover.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Dinny Breen on June 30, 2015, 12:36:22 PM
The Greek banks are going to be closed for 5 days, there will be intense Capital controls and then the Greeks will vote in a referendum on Sunday!! Having lived and worked in Greece, the Greeks tend not to like too much hassle can see them wanting to come back to the negotiating table so wouldn't be surprised if Tsipiras loses the referendum.

Greeks as a nation seem to hate paying taxes, cash is King, no cash will cause heartache.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Denn Forever on June 30, 2015, 01:42:57 PM
Interesting thought on Greece et al on thought for the day.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02vzdbl#auto

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: magpie seanie on June 30, 2015, 02:33:47 PM
Quote from: muppet on June 30, 2015, 12:21:45 PM
Quote from: ludermor on June 30, 2015, 12:17:09 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on June 30, 2015, 11:28:24 AM
Quote from: muppet on June 29, 2015, 08:54:55 PM
If the vote is YES the Tsipiras and his party are gone. It is not yet certain that the IMF/EU are willing to wait on a vote so it might be too little to late.

If the vote is NO, Tsipiras and co will have been right. But they will be out of the Euro probably.

High stakes stuff.

Yes and while that will mean pain in the short term I think we'll be fighting with each other in queues to book our holidays in Greece next year. They will rocket back to growth pretty quickly (supported by Vladimir of course). Which will make the EU and especially our w**ker politicians look extremely bad.
Not so sure about that, they will have alienated the EU which has to be a huge chuck of trading partners.

The money always goes to where the returns are. The tourists will go there as it will be the best value and US money will chase the post collapse 5-10% growth.

But if your wealth falls by 40-80%, it takes many years at 5-10% growth to recover.

Greece has no economy and no industry bar tourism. They need to be built up from the bottom. This is the best route, in fact the only route with an prospect of success, for them and they'll be supported by Russia if the EU are stupid enough to let that happen.

Also - this mirage of an Irish recovery is complete horseshit. My bank is still grossly overcharging me for my mortgage, the government is raping my pay packet (PAYE to run the country, USC to pay off loan interest), the government is charging me for the privilege of living in my own home that I'm paying an overinflated mortgage to a zombie bank for, the government is attempting to charge me a third time for my water supply and they will then privatise this. We will be throw a few scraps to pacify us for the election but what has really changed? We're building houses again!!!!! That went well the last time.

People would need to wake up.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Bord na Mona man on June 30, 2015, 02:35:18 PM
Is there any hope of Greece ever coming close to balancing the books somewhere down the line?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: macdanger2 on June 30, 2015, 03:57:44 PM
Quote from: Bord na Mona man on June 30, 2015, 02:35:18 PM
Is there any hope of Greece ever coming close to balancing the books somewhere down the line?

As far as I know, Greece is operating a primary surplus i.e. they're balancing the books excluding debt repayments.

The level of debt they have is unsustainable and a large chunk needs to be written off - if it was a purely financial call, this would have already been done. However, the politics of it means that a debt write down for Greece would prompt calls for debt writedowns elsewhere as well as increased support for anti-austerity parties in other European countries. The flip side is that a default drives Greece closer to Russia and weakens the euro as it opens the door for other debt laden countries to leave as well.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: muppet on June 30, 2015, 04:30:12 PM
Private holders of Greek debt already had a significant write down. As part of that deal the IMF and EU taxpayers took on the burden. Any write down now has to be paid for by taxpayers in other countries. Countries with lower benefits and standards of living will hardly agree, as wont countries in bailouts (unless everyone is getting writedowns - nil chance of happening) nor will those taxpayers who feel they shouldn't be paying for the mis-management by crap/corrupt governments.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Muck Savage on June 30, 2015, 04:57:58 PM
Quote from: macdanger2 on June 30, 2015, 03:57:44 PM
Quote from: Bord na Mona man on June 30, 2015, 02:35:18 PM
Is there any hope of Greece ever coming close to balancing the books somewhere down the line?

As far as I know, Greece is operating a primary surplus i.e. they're balancing the books excluding debt repayments.

The level of debt they have is unsustainable and a large chunk needs to be written off - if it was a purely financial call, this would have already been done. However, the politics of it means that a debt write down for Greece would prompt calls for debt writedowns elsewhere as well as increased support for anti-austerity parties in other European countries. The flip side is that a default drives Greece closer to Russia and weakens the euro as it opens the door for other debt laden countries to leave as well.

What bank manager would write off your mortgage if you went in and said, 'Sure I'm balancing the books without the repayments"? They dug themselves into this hole with an inflated Public sector, giving themselves raises and early retirement. I've no sympathy for them. The screwed up there own finances and now and on the brink of screwing up the rest of the EU. I agree that the debt is unattainable but how was it allowed to get to this point by everyone involved?
This potential domino effect could be bad for everyone.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: magpie seanie on June 30, 2015, 04:59:55 PM
Quote from: Muck Savage on June 30, 2015, 04:57:58 PM
Quote from: macdanger2 on June 30, 2015, 03:57:44 PM
Quote from: Bord na Mona man on June 30, 2015, 02:35:18 PM
Is there any hope of Greece ever coming close to balancing the books somewhere down the line?

As far as I know, Greece is operating a primary surplus i.e. they're balancing the books excluding debt repayments.

The level of debt they have is unsustainable and a large chunk needs to be written off - if it was a purely financial call, this would have already been done. However, the politics of it means that a debt write down for Greece would prompt calls for debt writedowns elsewhere as well as increased support for anti-austerity parties in other European countries. The flip side is that a default drives Greece closer to Russia and weakens the euro as it opens the door for other debt laden countries to leave as well.

What bank manager would write off your mortgage if you went in and said, 'Sure I'm balancing the books without the repayments"? They dug themselves into this hole with an inflated Public sector, giving themselves raises and early retirement. I've no sympathy for them. The screwed up there own finances and now and on the brink of screwing up the rest of the EU. I agree that the debt is unattainable but how was it allowed to get to this point by everyone involved?
This potential domino effect could be bad for everyone.

Who let them into the EURO? They didn't become a messed up place overnight.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Muck Savage on June 30, 2015, 05:04:56 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on June 30, 2015, 04:59:55 PM
Quote from: Muck Savage on June 30, 2015, 04:57:58 PM
Quote from: macdanger2 on June 30, 2015, 03:57:44 PM
Quote from: Bord na Mona man on June 30, 2015, 02:35:18 PM
Is there any hope of Greece ever coming close to balancing the books somewhere down the line?

As far as I know, Greece is operating a primary surplus i.e. they're balancing the books excluding debt repayments.

The level of debt they have is unsustainable and a large chunk needs to be written off - if it was a purely financial call, this would have already been done. However, the politics of it means that a debt write down for Greece would prompt calls for debt writedowns elsewhere as well as increased support for anti-austerity parties in other European countries. The flip side is that a default drives Greece closer to Russia and weakens the euro as it opens the door for other debt laden countries to leave as well.

What bank manager would write off your mortgage if you went in and said, 'Sure I'm balancing the books without the repayments"? They dug themselves into this hole with an inflated Public sector, giving themselves raises and early retirement. I've no sympathy for them. The screwed up there own finances and now and on the brink of screwing up the rest of the EU. I agree that the debt is unattainable but how was it allowed to get to this point by everyone involved?
This potential domino effect could be bad for everyone.

Who let them into the EURO? They didn't become a messed up place overnight.

Hence my note on 2nd last line. All the EU finance ministers over the last 15 years should be answering this
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: armaghniac on June 30, 2015, 05:22:04 PM
Quote from: Muck Savage on June 30, 2015, 04:57:58 PM
Quote from: macdanger2 on June 30, 2015, 03:57:44 PM
Quote from: Bord na Mona man on June 30, 2015, 02:35:18 PM
Is there any hope of Greece ever coming close to balancing the books somewhere down the line?

As far as I know, Greece is operating a primary surplus i.e. they're balancing the books excluding debt repayments.

The level of debt they have is unsustainable and a large chunk needs to be written off - if it was a purely financial call, this would have already been done. However, the politics of it means that a debt write down for Greece would prompt calls for debt writedowns elsewhere as well as increased support for anti-austerity parties in other European countries. The flip side is that a default drives Greece closer to Russia and weakens the euro as it opens the door for other debt laden countries to leave as well.

What bank manager would write off your mortgage if you went in and said, 'Sure I'm balancing the books without the repayments"? They dug themselves into this hole with an inflated Public sector, giving themselves raises and early retirement. I've no sympathy for them. The screwed up there own finances and now and on the brink of screwing up the rest of the EU. I agree that the debt is unattainable but how was it allowed to get to this point by everyone involved?
This potential domino effect could be bad for everyone.

The Greeks were acting the maggot more or less in public view. The price should have been paid by those who held their bonds. But they were cute enough to manipulate the other governments that this would be "bad for the Euro", so a large part of the debt remained in public hands. As everyone says, the voters of Slovakia or wherever are not keen to pay and Greece cannot pay, who those who should have suffered a loss have not done so.

Puerto Rico is facing default. This will not be "bad for the dollar", nor will the ATMs there stop working, but they people who bought their bonds will lose out.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/06/29/puerto-rico-debt-crisis-default/29458475/
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: muppet on June 30, 2015, 05:50:56 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on June 30, 2015, 05:22:04 PM
Quote from: Muck Savage on June 30, 2015, 04:57:58 PM
Quote from: macdanger2 on June 30, 2015, 03:57:44 PM
Quote from: Bord na Mona man on June 30, 2015, 02:35:18 PM
Is there any hope of Greece ever coming close to balancing the books somewhere down the line?

As far as I know, Greece is operating a primary surplus i.e. they're balancing the books excluding debt repayments.

The level of debt they have is unsustainable and a large chunk needs to be written off - if it was a purely financial call, this would have already been done. However, the politics of it means that a debt write down for Greece would prompt calls for debt writedowns elsewhere as well as increased support for anti-austerity parties in other European countries. The flip side is that a default drives Greece closer to Russia and weakens the euro as it opens the door for other debt laden countries to leave as well.

What bank manager would write off your mortgage if you went in and said, 'Sure I'm balancing the books without the repayments"? They dug themselves into this hole with an inflated Public sector, giving themselves raises and early retirement. I've no sympathy for them. The screwed up there own finances and now and on the brink of screwing up the rest of the EU. I agree that the debt is unattainable but how was it allowed to get to this point by everyone involved?
This potential domino effect could be bad for everyone.

The Greeks were acting the maggot more or less in public view. The price should have been paid by those who held their bonds. But they were cute enough to manipulate the other governments that this would be "bad for the Euro", so a large part of the debt remained in public hands. As everyone says, the voters of Slovakia or wherever are not keen to pay and Greece cannot pay, who those who should have suffered a loss have not done so.

Puerto Rico is facing default. This will not be "bad for the dollar", nor will the ATMs there stop working, but they people who bought their bonds will lose out.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/06/29/puerto-rico-debt-crisis-default/29458475/

Greek bond holders took their hit in the lest Greek crisis (2012?).  The private Greek debt holders are off the stage now. Tsipiras thinks other EU politicians will sacrifice their own votes to help his.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Muck Savage on June 30, 2015, 06:51:25 PM
If they don't default now then its really a case of kicking the can down the road. They are going to default at some stage so maybe for themselves they should just take the hammering now and begin the rebuild process as soon as possible. I know all the Euro heads are just worried about their own corner but this is unsustainable so best take the pain now. This has been dragging on since 2008, how much longer does it have to go on before reality sets in.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: armaghniac on June 30, 2015, 07:04:56 PM
Quote from: muppet on June 30, 2015, 05:50:56 PM
Greek bond holders took their hit in the lest Greek crisis (2012?).  The private Greek debt holders are off the stage now. Tsipiras thinks other EU politicians will sacrifice their own votes to help his.

Not as big a bit as Cyprus, I think. Basically Ireland was first, no cut at all at all, Greece (much worse case) got something of a cut, Cyprus came next and got a bigger (perhaps appropriate) cut. Ireland could withstand the bloodletting to some extent as its economy is fairly healthy underneath it all. Greece needed more treatment.

It does represent a failure of European vision though
There is a good quote on the FT forum.,
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e965eca6-1e45-11e5-ab0f-6bb9974f25d0.html

"If our grandfathers' generation could work hand in hand with neighbours that turned some of them into soap, we would be unbelievably weak not to rise to the occasion when a fellow member of society has behaved financially ver irresponsibly but no more. "

They should have burned the bondholders, identified the reforms, and give Greece a couple of years to get things in order, when it could have borrowed again on the markets. Of course the Greek politicans are no help either, not unlike our own charlatans.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: macdanger2 on June 30, 2015, 07:42:57 PM
Quote from: Muck Savage on June 30, 2015, 04:57:58 PM
Quote from: macdanger2 on June 30, 2015, 03:57:44 PM
Quote from: Bord na Mona man on June 30, 2015, 02:35:18 PM
Is there any hope of Greece ever coming close to balancing the books somewhere down the line?

As far as I know, Greece is operating a primary surplus i.e. they're balancing the books excluding debt repayments.

The level of debt they have is unsustainable and a large chunk needs to be written off - if it was a purely financial call, this would have already been done. However, the politics of it means that a debt write down for Greece would prompt calls for debt writedowns elsewhere as well as increased support for anti-austerity parties in other European countries. The flip side is that a default drives Greece closer to Russia and weakens the euro as it opens the door for other debt laden countries to leave as well.

What bank manager would write off your mortgage if you went in and said, 'Sure I'm balancing the books without the repayments"? They dug themselves into this hole with an inflated Public sector, giving themselves raises and early retirement. I've no sympathy for them. The screwed up there own finances and now and on the brink of screwing up the rest of the EU. I agree that the debt is unattainable but how was it allowed to get to this point by everyone involved?
This potential domino effect could be bad for everyone.

True but if the debt is simply not sustainable, what option is there than default? A deal without some sort of default is just delaying the inevitable imo

There's going to be a domino effect whether they leave the euro or not
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Maguire01 on July 01, 2015, 12:35:19 PM
Looking like a total climb-down from Tsipras now, according to BBC website.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: AZOffaly on July 01, 2015, 01:28:07 PM
there's talk the referendum will be cancelled as well. All talk, no trousers it looks like.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Franko on July 01, 2015, 01:52:53 PM
Looks like a bit of a capitulation alright.

Though at least the Greeks fought for a while (with a helluva worse case than we had) before they threw in the towel.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: highorlow on July 01, 2015, 01:55:15 PM
QuoteWho let them into the EURO? They didn't become a messed up place overnight.

Goldman Sachs cooked the books for them.

http://wallstreetonparade.com/2015/06/goldman-sachs-doesnt-have-clean-hands-in-greece-crisis/


Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Premier Emperor on July 01, 2015, 01:58:23 PM
Syriza were all big talk and no substance, just like lots of our politicians were.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Franko on July 01, 2015, 02:05:36 PM
Ours were neither, they just bent over.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Premier Emperor on July 01, 2015, 02:09:58 PM
Quote from: Franko on July 01, 2015, 02:05:36 PM
Ours were neither, they just bent over.
What have they achieved for Greece apart from bringing the country to a halt?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Franko on July 01, 2015, 02:18:48 PM
Quote from: Premier Emperor on July 01, 2015, 02:09:58 PM
Quote from: Franko on July 01, 2015, 02:05:36 PM
Ours were neither, they just bent over.
What have they achieved for Greece apart from bringing the country to a halt?

Greece will have to assume major pain either way.  They are in a mess.  Our debt was mostly private bank debt (not like Greece's sovereign debt) which at the stroke of a pen the citizens assumed without much more than a whimper.  At least the Greeks tried to fight their corner.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Rossfan on July 01, 2015, 03:48:21 PM
Quote from: Premier Emperor on July 01, 2015, 01:58:23 PM
Syriza were all big talk and no substance, just like lots of our politicians were.
"Labour's way or Frankfurt's way....."  ::)
Very hard to back up big talk on a wake stomach  ;)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: AZOffaly on July 01, 2015, 03:52:18 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on July 01, 2015, 03:48:21 PM
Quote from: Premier Emperor on July 01, 2015, 01:58:23 PM
Syriza were all big talk and no substance, just like lots of our politicians were.
"Labour's way or Frankfurt's way....."  ::)
Very hard to back up big talk on a wake stomach  ;)

That was just a coincidence that they were both the same way!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: muppet on July 01, 2015, 04:55:23 PM
It is hard to watch a first world European country go through this. The people on the street don't understand what is happening them and why their financial world is collapsing.

Debt relief is the obvious solution, except it isn't a transaction without a counterpart. Taxpayers in other countries including Ireland (€350m) will have to pay for that debt relief. And that assumes it would be the end of it. Which it almost certainly won't be.

Greece, along with Italy in particular, historically couldn't manage their tax collection so they had, as policy, high inflation with its side effects of latent taxation and of currency devaluation. Remember how many Lira a pound bought? This rate was always rising and it was the same to a slightly lesser extent in Greece.

When they joined the Euro they no longer could control inflation or their currencies. It seems to have been assumed that these countries would eventually cop themselves on and be more like Germany & co. It was a bad assumption.

Ireland did manage to get its finances and tax collection under control, but it was assumed that we would have sensible fiscal policies to avoid, for example, property booms developing as a reslut of low interest rates. We were supposed to tax the f*ck out of property if prices rose too quickly. We did the opposite and started lecturing Europe and the World as to why this time was different.

Now we need, much as I hate to say it, the government to pay down the debt as quickly as possible. This might avoid the next crisis. Instead with an election looming, Fine Gael are making it clear they will be reducing taxes, Labour are promising to increase PS pay, and the opposition are ALL insisting they do more!

At the start of the last crisis we had very little debt, that is why we are not Greece. But if it all goes pear shaped again, next time we could be Greece.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: armaghniac on July 01, 2015, 05:01:13 PM
Quote from: muppet on July 01, 2015, 04:55:23 PM
Ireland did manage to get its finances and tax collection under control, but it was assumed that we would have sensible fiscal policies to avoid, for example, property booms developing as a reslut of low interest rates. We were supposed to tax the f*ck out of property if prices rose too quickly. We did the opposite and started lecturing Europe and the World as to why this time was different.

Ireland did largely tax the f*ck out of property, although they spent that tax and reduced other taxes rather than regarding it as a windfall to be put to one side.

The property boom could only have been stopped by bank regulation and by the people who give money to banks, notably the shareholders and bondholders, having the sense that the single currency did not mean there was a single risk differential between a bank lending in a property increasing by 30% each year one lending into property market largely rising with inflation. Of course they were right, as the banks were bailed out by the Irish taxpayer.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: omaghjoe on July 01, 2015, 05:22:48 PM
Sorry for my ignorance Muppet but why exactly would Ireland (or any other country) have to pay for debt relief?

Can the lenders not be forced to write off the debt if Greece doesnt pay, or will this affect all eurozone lending ratings and in turn their interest rates?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Maguire01 on July 01, 2015, 05:45:36 PM
Quote from: omaghjoe on July 01, 2015, 05:22:48 PM
Sorry for my ignorance Muppet but why exactly would Ireland (or any other country) have to pay for debt relief?

Can the lenders not be forced to write off the debt if Greece doesnt pay, or will this affect all eurozone lending ratings and in turn their interest rates?
Ireland IS one of the lenders, along with other EU countries, some of which have lower standards of living than Greece.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: omaghjoe on July 01, 2015, 06:18:48 PM
Quote from: Maguire01 on July 01, 2015, 05:45:36 PM
Quote from: omaghjoe on July 01, 2015, 05:22:48 PM
Sorry for my ignorance Muppet but why exactly would Ireland (or any other country) have to pay for debt relief?

Can the lenders not be forced to write off the debt if Greece doesnt pay, or will this affect all eurozone lending ratings and in turn their interest rates?
Ireland IS one of the lenders, along with other EU countries, some of which have lower standards of living than Greece.

Ah Ok! I see

So is it directly or through the IMF that countries have lent to Greece?

I was under the impression that large private lenders where the principle suppliers of loans to countries through bonds? Or is the IMF etc also partly funded by these private lenders?

Or am I mistaken that private lenders are limited to the relationship between central banks private banking? Or is there a cross over? (Ireland's recent debacle excluded of course)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: armaghniac on July 01, 2015, 06:28:42 PM
Quote from: omaghjoe on July 01, 2015, 06:18:48 PM
Quote from: Maguire01 on July 01, 2015, 05:45:36 PM
Quote from: omaghjoe on July 01, 2015, 05:22:48 PM
Sorry for my ignorance Muppet but why exactly would Ireland (or any other country) have to pay for debt relief?

Can the lenders not be forced to write off the debt if Greece doesnt pay, or will this affect all eurozone lending ratings and in turn their interest rates?
Ireland IS one of the lenders, along with other EU countries, some of which have lower standards of living than Greece.

Ah Ok! I see

So is it directly or through the IMF that countries have lent to Greece?

I was under the impression that large private lenders where the principle suppliers of loans to countries through bonds? Or is the IMF etc also partly funded by these private lenders?

Or am I mistaken that private lenders are limited to the relationship between central banks private banking? Or is there a cross over? (Ireland's recent debacle excluded of course)

Greece hasn't been able to borrow on the markets for years, the private lenders are largely gone. The money here comes from the EU countries and the IMF, Ireland contributes to both, but the bigger proportion is the EU lending.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: omaghjoe on July 01, 2015, 06:34:46 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on July 01, 2015, 06:28:42 PM
Quote from: omaghjoe on July 01, 2015, 06:18:48 PM
Quote from: Maguire01 on July 01, 2015, 05:45:36 PM
Quote from: omaghjoe on July 01, 2015, 05:22:48 PM
Sorry for my ignorance Muppet but why exactly would Ireland (or any other country) have to pay for debt relief?

Can the lenders not be forced to write off the debt if Greece doesnt pay, or will this affect all eurozone lending ratings and in turn their interest rates?
Ireland IS one of the lenders, along with other EU countries, some of which have lower standards of living than Greece.

Ah Ok! I see

So is it directly or through the IMF that countries have lent to Greece?

I was under the impression that large private lenders where the principle suppliers of loans to countries through bonds? Or is the IMF etc also partly funded by these private lenders?

Or am I mistaken that private lenders are limited to the relationship between central banks private banking? Or is there a cross over? (Ireland's recent debacle excluded of course)

Greece hasn't been able to borrow on the markets for years, the private lenders are largely gone. The money here comes from the EU countries and the IMF, Ireland contributes to both, but the bigger proportion is the EU lending.

Why not? Do the lenders refuse to touch them because they are such a high risk?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: armaghniac on July 01, 2015, 06:36:45 PM
Quote from: omaghjoe on July 01, 2015, 06:34:46 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on July 01, 2015, 06:28:42 PM
Quote from: omaghjoe on July 01, 2015, 06:18:48 PM
Quote from: Maguire01 on July 01, 2015, 05:45:36 PM
Quote from: omaghjoe on July 01, 2015, 05:22:48 PM
Sorry for my ignorance Muppet but why exactly would Ireland (or any other country) have to pay for debt relief?

Can the lenders not be forced to write off the debt if Greece doesnt pay, or will this affect all eurozone lending ratings and in turn their interest rates?
Ireland IS one of the lenders, along with other EU countries, some of which have lower standards of living than Greece.

Ah Ok! I see

So is it directly or through the IMF that countries have lent to Greece?

I was under the impression that large private lenders where the principle suppliers of loans to countries through bonds? Or is the IMF etc also partly funded by these private lenders?

Or am I mistaken that private lenders are limited to the relationship between central banks private banking? Or is there a cross over? (Ireland's recent debacle excluded of course)

Greece hasn't been able to borrow on the markets for years, the private lenders are largely gone. The money here comes from the EU countries and the IMF, Ireland contributes to both, but the bigger proportion is the EU lending.

Why not? Do the lenders refuse to touch them because they are such a high risk?

Exactly.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: omaghjoe on July 01, 2015, 07:03:24 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on July 01, 2015, 06:36:45 PM
Quote from: omaghjoe on July 01, 2015, 06:34:46 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on July 01, 2015, 06:28:42 PM
Quote from: omaghjoe on July 01, 2015, 06:18:48 PM
Quote from: Maguire01 on July 01, 2015, 05:45:36 PM
Quote from: omaghjoe on July 01, 2015, 05:22:48 PM
Sorry for my ignorance Muppet but why exactly would Ireland (or any other country) have to pay for debt relief?

Can the lenders not be forced to write off the debt if Greece doesnt pay, or will this affect all eurozone lending ratings and in turn their interest rates?
Ireland IS one of the lenders, along with other EU countries, some of which have lower standards of living than Greece.

Ah Ok! I see

So is it directly or through the IMF that countries have lent to Greece?

I was under the impression that large private lenders where the principle suppliers of loans to countries through bonds? Or is the IMF etc also partly funded by these private lenders?

Or am I mistaken that private lenders are limited to the relationship between central banks private banking? Or is there a cross over? (Ireland's recent debacle excluded of course)

Greece hasn't been able to borrow on the markets for years, the private lenders are largely gone. The money here comes from the EU countries and the IMF, Ireland contributes to both, but the bigger proportion is the EU lending.

Why not? Do the lenders refuse to touch them because they are such a high risk?

Exactly.

Right I see

HS! What a mess! Seems like a moral Catch 22

But then the debt is not sustainable so can't they just defer the interest until it is and then at least everyone gets something?..... or is it even beyond that?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: muppet on July 01, 2015, 07:12:49 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on July 01, 2015, 06:36:45 PM
Quote from: omaghjoe on July 01, 2015, 06:34:46 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on July 01, 2015, 06:28:42 PM
Quote from: omaghjoe on July 01, 2015, 06:18:48 PM
Quote from: Maguire01 on July 01, 2015, 05:45:36 PM
Quote from: omaghjoe on July 01, 2015, 05:22:48 PM
Sorry for my ignorance Muppet but why exactly would Ireland (or any other country) have to pay for debt relief?

Can the lenders not be forced to write off the debt if Greece doesnt pay, or will this affect all eurozone lending ratings and in turn their interest rates?
Ireland IS one of the lenders, along with other EU countries, some of which have lower standards of living than Greece.

Ah Ok! I see

So is it directly or through the IMF that countries have lent to Greece?

I was under the impression that large private lenders where the principle suppliers of loans to countries through bonds? Or is the IMF etc also partly funded by these private lenders?

Or am I mistaken that private lenders are limited to the relationship between central banks private banking? Or is there a cross over? (Ireland's recent debacle excluded of course)

Greece hasn't been able to borrow on the markets for years, the private lenders are largely gone. The money here comes from the EU countries and the IMF, Ireland contributes to both, but the bigger proportion is the EU lending.

Why not? Do the lenders refuse to touch them because they are such a high risk?

Exactly.

Private lenders took a haircut when Greece got debt relief during the last crisis.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: muppet on July 01, 2015, 07:15:40 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on July 01, 2015, 05:01:13 PM
Quote from: muppet on July 01, 2015, 04:55:23 PM
Ireland did manage to get its finances and tax collection under control, but it was assumed that we would have sensible fiscal policies to avoid, for example, property booms developing as a reslut of low interest rates. We were supposed to tax the f*ck out of property if prices rose too quickly. We did the opposite and started lecturing Europe and the World as to why this time was different.

Ireland did largely tax the f*ck out of property, although they spent that tax and reduced other taxes rather than regarding it as a windfall to be put to one side.

The property boom could only have been stopped by bank regulation and by the people who give money to banks, notably the shareholders and bondholders, having the sense that the single currency did not mean there was a single risk differential between a bank lending in a property increasing by 30% each year one lending into property market largely rising with inflation. Of course they were right, as the banks were bailed out by the Irish taxpayer.

Ireland reduced taxes everywhere during the property boom, thereby throwing fuel on the fire. Certainly foreign banks were willing to do the same, and should have suffered accordingly (but the ECB wouldn't have it) but we could have put up Stamp Duty, for example, to control it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: macdanger2 on July 01, 2015, 07:32:24 PM
Quote from: omaghjoe on July 01, 2015, 05:22:48 PM
Sorry for my ignorance Muppet but why exactly would Ireland (or any other country) have to pay for debt relief?

Can the lenders not be forced to write off the debt if Greece doesnt pay, or will this affect all eurozone lending ratings and in turn their interest rates?

Initially it was largely private debt, then with the first Greek bailout the EU / IMF bought the debt at a discounted rate.....not discounted enough by the looks of things though.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: macdanger2 on July 01, 2015, 07:34:42 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on July 01, 2015, 05:01:13 PM
Quote from: muppet on July 01, 2015, 04:55:23 PM
Ireland did manage to get its finances and tax collection under control, but it was assumed that we would have sensible fiscal policies to avoid, for example, property booms developing as a reslut of low interest rates. We were supposed to tax the f*ck out of property if prices rose too quickly. We did the opposite and started lecturing Europe and the World as to why this time was different.

Ireland did largely tax the f*ck out of property, although they spent that tax and reduced other taxes rather than regarding it as a windfall to be put to one side.

The property boom could only have been stopped by bank regulation and by the people who give money to banks, notably the shareholders and bondholders, having the sense that the single currency did not mean there was a single risk differential between a bank lending in a property increasing by 30% each year one lending into property market largely rising with inflation. Of course they were right, as the banks were bailed out by the Irish taxpayer.

I disagree with that - the section 30, 52, etc.tax reliefs encouraged investors into the property market pushing demand & prices higher
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: armaghniac on July 01, 2015, 07:51:03 PM
Quote from: macdanger2 on July 01, 2015, 07:34:42 PMInitially it was largely private debt, then with the first Greek bailout the EU / IMF bought the debt at a discounted rate.....not discounted enough by the looks of things though.

Not at all discounted enough. But you had this idea that bondholders shouldn't lose much, in part because they included German and French banks . The IMF would probably have skinned them.

Quote from: macdanger2 on July 01, 2015, 07:34:42 PM
I disagree with that - the section 30, 52, etc.tax reliefs encouraged investors into the property market pushing demand & prices higher

These things didn't help, to be sure. But if the banks had had respect for their shareholders money the damage would have been less.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: macdanger2 on July 01, 2015, 07:54:00 PM
True but they were more interested in their bonuses  >:(
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: TabClear on July 02, 2015, 09:03:27 PM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-33372786

Good to see some things haven't changed after the crash. ....😐
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: armaghniac on July 03, 2015, 12:00:24 AM
Quote from: muppet on July 01, 2015, 07:15:40 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on July 01, 2015, 05:01:13 PM
Quote from: muppet on July 01, 2015, 04:55:23 PM
Ireland did manage to get its finances and tax collection under control, but it was assumed that we would have sensible fiscal policies to avoid, for example, property booms developing as a reslut of low interest rates. We were supposed to tax the f*ck out of property if prices rose too quickly. We did the opposite and started lecturing Europe and the World as to why this time was different.

Ireland did largely tax the f*ck out of property, although they spent that tax and reduced other taxes rather than regarding it as a windfall to be put to one side.

The property boom could only have been stopped by bank regulation and by the people who give money to banks, notably the shareholders and bondholders, having the sense that the single currency did not mean there was a single risk differential between a bank lending in a property increasing by 30% each year one lending into property market largely rising with inflation. Of course they were right, as the banks were bailed out by the Irish taxpayer.

Ireland reduced taxes everywhere during the property boom, thereby throwing fuel on the fire. Certainly foreign banks were willing to do the same, and should have suffered accordingly (but the ECB wouldn't have it) but we could have put up Stamp Duty, for example, to control it.

To what rate would you have put stamp duty? People were paying €30K, €40K, €50K, €60K, €70K of stamp duty on houses and were simply borrowing the whole lot. I'm not saying that other points made are wrong, but that they were less important than the wall of borrowed money.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: LeoMc on July 03, 2015, 08:17:26 AM
Quote from: TabClear on July 02, 2015, 09:03:27 PM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-33372786

Good to see some things haven't changed after the crash. ....😐

I wonder did Wallace have a name in mind. From Tughans statement it sounds like 1 rogue partner for personal gain.

Tughans said in a statement: "The practice is not linked to any political party nor has it ever made party political donations."

It went on: "We can confirm that a former partner diverted to an account of which he was the sole beneficiary professional fees due to the firm, without the knowledge of the partners.

"We have since retrieved the money and he has left the practice.


Some man tries to nick £7m and it is hushed up. He must have went to the right school or golf club.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: highorlow on July 03, 2015, 09:57:25 AM
Interesting article on Varoufakis background with 'game theory' from back in Feb.


http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2015/02/17/greeces-varoufakis-may-be-good-on-game-theory-but-theres-no-room-for-game-theory-here/


Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: TabClear on July 03, 2015, 10:07:53 AM
Quote from: LeoMc on July 03, 2015, 08:17:26 AM
Quote from: TabClear on July 02, 2015, 09:03:27 PM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-33372786

Good to see some things haven't changed after the crash. ....😐

I wonder did Wallace have a name in mind. From Tughans statement it sounds like 1 rogue partner for personal gain.

Tughans said in a statement: "The practice is not linked to any political party nor has it ever made party political donations."

It went on: "We can confirm that a former partner diverted to an account of which he was the sole beneficiary professional fees due to the firm, without the knowledge of the partners.

"We have since retrieved the money and he has left the practice.


Some man tries to nick £7m and it is hushed up. He must have went to the right school or golf club.


Tughan managing partner left ( "resigned") in January very suddenly.

No confirmation the two are linked but it is a bit of a coincidence. ..

Although given the size of the alledged transfer at £7m, it is hard to see how it could have been intended for a politician as that size of transaction leaves footprints.  Equally it seems too large to hope to conceal if you were an individual perpetrating a fraud.

I suspect there is more to come on this story
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: muppet on July 03, 2015, 10:09:25 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on July 03, 2015, 12:00:24 AM
Quote from: muppet on July 01, 2015, 07:15:40 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on July 01, 2015, 05:01:13 PM
Quote from: muppet on July 01, 2015, 04:55:23 PM
Ireland did manage to get its finances and tax collection under control, but it was assumed that we would have sensible fiscal policies to avoid, for example, property booms developing as a reslut of low interest rates. We were supposed to tax the f*ck out of property if prices rose too quickly. We did the opposite and started lecturing Europe and the World as to why this time was different.

Ireland did largely tax the f*ck out of property, although they spent that tax and reduced other taxes rather than regarding it as a windfall to be put to one side.

The property boom could only have been stopped by bank regulation and by the people who give money to banks, notably the shareholders and bondholders, having the sense that the single currency did not mean there was a single risk differential between a bank lending in a property increasing by 30% each year one lending into property market largely rising with inflation. Of course they were right, as the banks were bailed out by the Irish taxpayer.

Ireland reduced taxes everywhere during the property boom, thereby throwing fuel on the fire. Certainly foreign banks were willing to do the same, and should have suffered accordingly (but the ECB wouldn't have it) but we could have put up Stamp Duty, for example, to control it.

To what rate would you have put stamp duty? People were paying €30K, €40K, €50K, €60K, €70K of stamp duty on houses and were simply borrowing the whole lot. I'm not saying that other points made are wrong, but that they were less important than the wall of borrowed money.

I said 'for example'. Add in bans on >90% mortgages and a suite of measures to stop the boom going out of control and we might have got somewhere. Instead our government threw fuel on the fire, to get votes. And the opposition demanded more.

The same is happening now with the next 'giveaway' budget. This is the same as noticing for the first time in years that you are not completely maxed out on credit card/overdraft debt, and then buying presents for everyone until you are maxed out again. And again the opposition is demanding more, because they have all judged that voters are stupid.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Rossfan on July 03, 2015, 10:31:03 AM
Aye indeed.
Give the people what they want and to Hell with the consequences.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: highorlow on July 03, 2015, 10:49:29 AM
QuoteThe same is happening now with the next 'giveaway' budget.

Yes it's the same carry on again alright. What's worse was listening to McCreevey the other day and his arrogance, he see's nothing wrong with buying votes.

Factor in the Irish mentality of snouts in the trough in the general economy and we will be back in a mess again in a few years time.

We must all be noticing the sneaky little add ons in the market these days, i.e.

Funfair for the kid last year = €2 per go, this year €2.50.

Croke Park last Sunday, Leinster Semis €30, last year €25.

Pints, appear to be extra €0.05 every other month, won't be long til we see the €10 pint in the city centre.

Deli Counters - sandwichs / rolls etc in my local shop, sneaky little 20c add on lately

Coffee - increasing all the time

Concert tickets - ditto


Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: muppet on July 05, 2015, 06:08:00 PM
Opinion polls (to be taken with a pinch of salt) predicting a NO vote in Greece!

If that happens, what comes next could decide who wins the next General Elections in Spain, Italy and maybe more countries, and will probably determine how Sinn Féin go in Ireland next year.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: armaghniac on July 05, 2015, 06:33:53 PM
First rallies 60% No!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: muppet on July 05, 2015, 06:53:40 PM
Looks like a No alright.

First question is will the ECB allow Greek Banks to open tomorrow?

If not the economy will fall apart quickly.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: macdanger2 on July 05, 2015, 07:16:50 PM
Interesting week ahead
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Maguire01 on July 05, 2015, 08:57:57 PM
Very interesting. But does the referendum result really mean anything? Who is it actually a victory for? The Greeks have had an anti-austerity mandate since the election months ago (even if Syriza have rolled back on election promises already), so what's the difference now?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: muppet on July 05, 2015, 09:03:34 PM
Quote from: Maguire01 on July 05, 2015, 08:57:57 PM
Very interesting. But does the referendum result really mean anything? Who is it actually a victory for? The Greeks have had an anti-austerity mandate since the election months ago (even if Syriza have rolled back on election promises already), so what's the difference now?

Tsipiras said he thought it would give him a stronger hand negotiating.

The reality seems to be they rejected a deal that had already been withdrawn. They have defaulted on the IMF payment. They have bigger payments coming. They need ECB ELA money to open their banks tomorrow and every day from now on.

The 'some one else will pay' mantra of Tsipiras, Doherty, Higgins and Murphy is nice to believe in, but it is nonsense. I think Greece will  find that out very soon.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: trileacman on July 05, 2015, 09:43:23 PM
Quote from: muppet on July 05, 2015, 09:03:34 PM
Quote from: Maguire01 on July 05, 2015, 08:57:57 PM
Very interesting. But does the referendum result really mean anything? Who is it actually a victory for? The Greeks have had an anti-austerity mandate since the election months ago (even if Syriza have rolled back on election promises already), so what's the difference now?

Tsipiras said he thought it would give him a stronger hand negotiating.

The reality seems to be they rejected a deal that had already been withdrawn. They have defaulted on the IMF payment. They have bigger payments coming. They need ECB ELA money to open their banks tomorrow and every day from now on.

The 'some one else will pay' mantra of Tsipiras, Doherty, Higgins and Murphy is nice to believe in, but it is nonsense. I think Greece will  find that out very soon.

I agree, the Greeks are living beyond their means and there's a whole f**king pile of bluff chat from these Szria boys like debt sustainability analysis and other horseshit.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: muppet on July 05, 2015, 09:52:34 PM
Quote from: trileacman on July 05, 2015, 09:43:23 PM
Quote from: muppet on July 05, 2015, 09:03:34 PM
Quote from: Maguire01 on July 05, 2015, 08:57:57 PM
Very interesting. But does the referendum result really mean anything? Who is it actually a victory for? The Greeks have had an anti-austerity mandate since the election months ago (even if Syriza have rolled back on election promises already), so what's the difference now?

Tsipiras said he thought it would give him a stronger hand negotiating.

The reality seems to be they rejected a deal that had already been withdrawn. They have defaulted on the IMF payment. They have bigger payments coming. They need ECB ELA money to open their banks tomorrow and every day from now on.

The 'some one else will pay' mantra of Tsipiras, Doherty, Higgins and Murphy is nice to believe in, but it is nonsense. I think Greece will  find that out very soon.

I agree, the Greeks are living beyond their means and there's a whole f**king pile of bluff chat from these Szria boys like debt sustainability analysis and other horseshit.

Something has to be done though with Greece. This is the 3rd crisis in 5 years with no sight of a way out. If the banks don't open soon the economy will stop functioning. Shops can't buy stock, because people buy nothing, anything bought abroad, such as medicine quickly runs out. I think the people will turn very quickly on Tsipiras if that continues.

Anyone know much about the Greek military? How independent are they?

The irony of those cheering a victory for democracy tonight is that if the other countries held referendums on whether to hand over their taxpayer's money to Greek, they most likely would vote no too. This isn't about democracy.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: macdanger2 on July 05, 2015, 09:56:57 PM
They simply can't afford to pay back the money, it's political necessity on behalf of the rest of the European govts that's preventing this being acknowledged.

I'm surprised Russia hasn't been sticking their oar in, would have thought they'd be delighted to get a foothold in a strategic location like Greece
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: muppet on July 05, 2015, 10:04:22 PM
Quote from: macdanger2 on July 05, 2015, 09:56:57 PM
They simply can't afford to pay back the money, it's political necessity on behalf of the rest of the European govts that's preventing this being acknowledged.

I'm surprised Russia hasn't been sticking their oar in, would have thought they'd be delighted to get a foothold in a strategic location like Greece

The Russians have their own financial difficulties since somebody slashed the price of oil.

If Greece says they won't pay back the money and gets away with it, Spain, Italy, Portugal and Ireland would be mad not to do the same thing. The problem is if that happens the euro will collapse along with much of Europe's banking system. There is no easy way out of this.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: macdanger2 on July 05, 2015, 10:16:46 PM
Definitely no easy way out and a seriously high stakes game of poker

Even if the Russians can't afford it, you have thought they'd be putting the pressure on just for divilment
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Wildweasel74 on July 06, 2015, 12:14:51 AM
There no point defaulting unless you do it from the word go, Is Ireland any better off since the Euro was introduced, was life that bad under the punt, i remember it been worth  £1.05 around 1996, now a euro worth 0.72, Should Ireland not have done what the UK done and stayed in the union but kept its currency?

Now if i was Russia i be eying up a few ports for monetary payoffs, that's really put the cats among the pigeons!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Pub Bore on July 06, 2015, 09:44:02 AM
Varoufakis has resigned.  The markets are taking that to be a sign there could be some sort of "deal" in the offing.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Crete Boom on July 06, 2015, 10:11:07 AM
Can the EU and Germany not just make them have another referendum to get the vote they want like they do with us?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: easytiger95 on July 06, 2015, 11:28:50 AM
i think debt relief is coming - unless the long term debt is made sustainable, no short term measures will mean anything. Youth unemployment in Greece is at 55%. A society cannot function under those conditions.

I think the vision of European leaders needs to be expanded. A narrative of feckless Greeks (no matter how true some of the aspects of it are) serves no useful function in securing the survival of the euro and solidity of the EU. We need something on the scale of the Marshall plan to make the southern economies sustainable and functional, and that means all aspects of their societies, including the immigration crisis.

End game for this has to be much tighter political integration, the forging of a European civic identity, and the willingness of northern taxpayers to help southern compatriots to serve a common good. Otherwise, wrap up the EU and break out the punts.

Interesting times.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: LeoMc on July 06, 2015, 12:56:06 PM
Quote from: Wildweasel74 on July 06, 2015, 12:14:51 AM
There no point defaulting unless you do it from the word go, Is Ireland any better off since the Euro was introduced, was life that bad under the punt, i remember it been worth  £1.05 around 1996, now a euro worth 0.72, Should Ireland not have done what the UK done and stayed in the union but kept its currency?

Now if i was Russia i be eying up a few ports for monetary payoffs, that's really put the cats among the pigeons!!

Now I am open to correction but my reading would be that if Ireland had not joined the Euro then when 2007 came along and the bubble burst there would have been no onus on the ECB to step in with loans. Ireland would have went the way of Iceland and the banks would have went under.
This would have been a bigger short term pain (personal savings wiped out for those with no off-shore account) but less long term debts (no Troika).
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: armaghniac on July 06, 2015, 01:01:03 PM
Quote from: LeoMc on July 06, 2015, 12:56:06 PM
Quote from: Wildweasel74 on July 06, 2015, 12:14:51 AM
There no point defaulting unless you do it from the word go, Is Ireland any better off since the Euro was introduced, was life that bad under the punt, i remember it been worth  £1.05 around 1996, now a euro worth 0.72, Should Ireland not have done what the UK done and stayed in the union but kept its currency?

Now if i was Russia i be eying up a few ports for monetary payoffs, that's really put the cats among the pigeons!!

Now I am open to correction but my reading would be that if Ireland had not joined the Euro then when 2007 came along and the bubble burst there would have been no onus on the ECB to step in with loans. Ireland would have went the way of Iceland and the banks would have went under.
This would have been a bigger short term pain (personal savings wiped out for those with no off-shore account) but less long term debts (no Troika).

But if Ireland hadn't been in Euro, interest rates would have been higher, property prices 20% less and banks wouldn't have needed as much money.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: LeoMc on July 06, 2015, 01:09:56 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on July 06, 2015, 01:01:03 PM
Quote from: LeoMc on July 06, 2015, 12:56:06 PM
Quote from: Wildweasel74 on July 06, 2015, 12:14:51 AM
There no point defaulting unless you do it from the word go, Is Ireland any better off since the Euro was introduced, was life that bad under the punt, i remember it been worth  £1.05 around 1996, now a euro worth 0.72, Should Ireland not have done what the UK done and stayed in the union but kept its currency?

Now if i was Russia i be eying up a few ports for monetary payoffs, that's really put the cats among the pigeons!!

Now I am open to correction but my reading would be that if Ireland had not joined the Euro then when 2007 came along and the bubble burst there would have been no onus on the ECB to step in with loans. Ireland would have went the way of Iceland and the banks would have went under.
This would have been a bigger short term pain (personal savings wiped out for those with no off-shore account) but less long term debts (no Troika).

But if Ireland hadn't been in Euro, interest rates would have been higher, property prices 20% less and banks wouldn't have needed as much money.
I am not so sure of that. The Government of the time still had their hands on a number of levers to control lending and spending to reduce the developing bubble. With the ECB and Bank of England both maintaining historically low interest rates it is quite possible that the Irish banks would have followed suit. They still had the capacity to borrow from abroad.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: easytiger95 on July 06, 2015, 01:44:35 PM
Problem was we had historically low interest rates at the wrong times - the start of the euro was just the spark needed. So whilst it meant that Germany could sell their manufacturing goods abroad in a currency much weaker then the deutsche mark, we were borrowing loads of said currency without a thought of consequences.

Which is not to say we didn't throw petrol on the flames ourselves - SSIAs, tax breaks on property, boom getting boomier etc

We really should be suing whichever academic body gave McCreevey and Ahern accounting degrees.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: armaghniac on July 06, 2015, 02:17:18 PM
Ahern doesn't have a degree! The SSIA wasn't a bad idea, but Aherne made sure that it paid out at the election, if it had paid out a year later when things were beginning to slow it would have done some good.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: trileacman on July 06, 2015, 06:42:58 PM
Quote from: easytiger95 on July 06, 2015, 01:44:35 PM
Problem was we had historically low interest rates at the wrong times - the start of the euro was just the spark needed. So whilst it meant that Germany could sell their manufacturing goods abroad in a currency much weaker then the deutsche mark, we were borrowing loads of said currency without a thought of consequences.

Which is not to say we didn't throw petrol on the flames ourselves - SSIAs, tax breaks on property, boom getting boomier etc

We really should be suing whichever academic body gave McCreevey and Ahern accounting degrees.

The SSIA was not a poor decision, encouraging saving was something that should've been done alot more, not pissing it up the wall at the Galway races.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Rossfan on July 06, 2015, 08:10:43 PM
SSIA was taxing rich and poor people so the Govt. could give free money to people who had enough to spare to put away every month.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: macdanger2 on July 06, 2015, 09:17:35 PM
Did the SSIA not encourage people to save instead of building up debt?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Rossfan on July 06, 2015, 09:46:16 PM
It was giving public money to people who didn't need it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: armaghniac on July 06, 2015, 11:40:14 PM
The SSIA was a sound idea, promote saving, normally the government justvdoes the DIRT on savers. And the money came from the class of person who pays the most tax.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Rossfan on July 06, 2015, 11:56:02 PM
I couldn't afford a feckin SSIA but was paying tax some of which was going straight to the pockets of better heeled people due to that thing.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: armaghniac on July 06, 2015, 11:58:19 PM
As the purpose of the SSIA was to promote saving rather than spending this was a good use of your tax.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Rossfan on July 07, 2015, 12:16:15 AM
Tax is meant to be redistributive.It should have e been used to shorten waiting lists or build new classrooms so my asthmatic child wouldn't have had to spend years in a damp leaky prefab getting sick and missing a lot of her schooling.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: J70 on July 07, 2015, 02:43:17 AM
Wasn't at least part of the idea to take money out of circulation to ease inflation fears at the time?

25% top up though! :o
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: magpie seanie on July 07, 2015, 04:28:09 PM
Quote from: J70 on July 07, 2015, 02:43:17 AM
Wasn't at least part of the idea to take money out of circulation to ease inflation fears at the time?

25% top up though! :o

Like a lot of things in this sorry excuse for a country there's the "story" and the real story. The cover story was - "taking money out of the economy to help control inflation/encourage people to save, not spend" but the real story was that the SSIA's were to mature before the election to assist the re-election of the government. The stated benefits were a handy spinoff or side effect and of course as Rossfan points out the whole scheme favoured people who had more money than they needed anyway. As a piece of public policy is left a lot to be desired but what's new?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: stew on July 07, 2015, 04:39:05 PM
Quote from: Crete Boom on July 06, 2015, 10:11:07 AM
Can the EU and Germany not just make them have another referendum to get the vote they want like they do with us?

And what did the sheep do? They turned to the dark side and accepted what the rest of the EU wanted.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: AZOffaly on July 07, 2015, 04:40:24 PM
Sorry excuse for a country? Come on Seanie. A young lad from our club just came back from building houses in Calcutta. We don't know how lucky we have it here.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: magpie seanie on July 07, 2015, 05:35:50 PM
Quote from: AZOffaly on July 07, 2015, 04:40:24 PM
Sorry excuse for a country? Come on Seanie. A young lad from our club just came back from building houses in Calcutta. We don't know how lucky we have it here.

We'll see where they are in 20-30 years time versus where we will be.

If you can't see what a sorry, lame ass place this is then I'm sorry for you. Kenny and Noonan siding with Merkel with people's lives being destroyed all around them. It's disgusting and unforgivable what is being done to people across Europe for the sake of German economic strength. But you go on and keep accepting it if that makes you think this is a great country.

The great things in this country are despite the people who are ruining the fuckin place.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: AZOffaly on July 07, 2015, 05:53:51 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on July 07, 2015, 05:35:50 PM
Quote from: AZOffaly on July 07, 2015, 04:40:24 PM
Sorry excuse for a country? Come on Seanie. A young lad from our club just came back from building houses in Calcutta. We don't know how lucky we have it here.

We'll see where they are in 20-30 years time versus where we will be.

If you can't see what a sorry, lame ass place this is then I'm sorry for you. Kenny and Noonan siding with Merkel with people's lives being destroyed all around them. It's disgusting and unforgivable what is being done to people across Europe for the sake of German economic strength. But you go on and keep accepting it if that makes you think this is a great country.

The great things in this country are despite the people who are ruining the fuckin place.

No, I don't accept those things. But I see a lot more positives than you do. If you genuinely feel this is a lame ass place, then it's I that feel sorry for you.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: armaghniac on July 07, 2015, 07:43:05 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on July 07, 2015, 04:28:09 PM
Like a lot of things in this sorry excuse for a country there's the "story" and the real story. The cover story was - "taking money out of the economy to help control inflation/encourage people to save, not spend" but the real story was that the SSIA's were to mature before the election to assist the re-election of the government. The stated benefits were a handy spinoff or side effect and of course as Rossfan points out the whole scheme favoured people who had more money than they needed anyway. As a piece of public policy is left a lot to be desired but what's new?

The problem is the politicians taking intrinsically useful ideas like benchmarking or the SSIA and then distorting them for their own benefit and an electorate that seems incapable of punishing them for the distortion without condemning the merits of the measure itself.

QuoteIf you can't see what a sorry, lame ass place this is then I'm sorry for you. Kenny and Noonan siding with Merkel with people's lives being destroyed all around them. It's disgusting and unforgivable what is being done to people across Europe for the sake of German economic strength. But you go on and keep accepting it if that makes you think this is a great country.

It was Irish people who ruined Ireland, not the Germans. Now the Germans are suiting themselves, too be sure, and are not exactly covering themselves in glory, but others need to look at their own conduct also.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: trileacman on July 07, 2015, 07:44:00 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on July 07, 2015, 05:35:50 PM
Quote from: AZOffaly on July 07, 2015, 04:40:24 PM
Sorry excuse for a country? Come on Seanie. A young lad from our club just came back from building houses in Calcutta. We don't know how lucky we have it here.

We'll see where they are in 20-30 years time versus where we will be.

If you can't see what a sorry, lame ass place this is then I'm sorry for you. Kenny and Noonan siding with Merkel with people's lives being destroyed all around them. It's disgusting and unforgivable what is being done to people across Europe for the sake of German economic strength. But you go on and keep accepting it if that makes you think this is a great country.

The great things in this country are despite the people who are ruining the fuckin place.

Things must be shocking depressing in Sligo at the minute. Christ you'd be hard to listen to in a famine. You'll get this gig when the ould crying hoor kicks the bucket.

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f1/Georgehook.jpg)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Dinny Breen on July 08, 2015, 03:54:56 AM
1st world problems whinging about the state of a country on the internet! Please tell me he sees the irony in that? Wonder what the 4 million off refugees in Syria would think of that? The old woman in the glass bottle comes to mind.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: ludermor on July 08, 2015, 08:04:12 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on July 07, 2015, 07:43:05 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on July 07, 2015, 04:28:09 PM
Like a lot of things in this sorry excuse for a country there's the "story" and the real story. The cover story was - "taking money out of the economy to help control inflation/encourage people to save, not spend" but the real story was that the SSIA's were to mature before the election to assist the re-election of the government. The stated benefits were a handy spinoff or side effect and of course as Rossfan points out the whole scheme favoured people who had more money than they needed anyway. As a piece of public policy is left a lot to be desired but what's new?

The problem is the politicians taking intrinsically useful ideas like benchmarking or the SSIA and then distorting them for their own benefit and an electorate that seems incapable of punishing them for the distortion without condemning the merits of the measure itself.

QuoteIf you can't see what a sorry, lame ass place this is then I'm sorry for you. Kenny and Noonan siding with Merkel with people's lives being destroyed all around them. It's disgusting and unforgivable what is being done to people across Europe for the sake of German economic strength. But you go on and keep accepting it if that makes you think this is a great country.

It was Irish people who ruined Ireland, not the Germans. Now the Germans are suiting themselves, too be sure, and are not exactly covering themselves in glory, but others need to look at their own conduct also.
I'm sure someone else can dig out the numbers but the exposure of the German banks to the Irish crisis was huge and protecting their interests affected the entire Irish bailout .
Seanie what option does Kenny and Noonan have? They have inherited the situation , would you really prefer if they went down the Greece route? Ireland has a lot of problems but you must have a short memory or have blinkers on if you think there was no problems in before the boom.
And if it bothers you so why dont you find somewhere else to live, the world is a big place and im sure you can find someplace that will satisfy your moral/political/commercial/social ideologies
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: magpie seanie on July 08, 2015, 09:31:24 AM
Quote from: Dinny Breen on July 08, 2015, 03:54:56 AM
1st world problems whinging about the state of a country on the internet! Please tell me he sees the irony in that? Wonder what the 4 million off refugees in Syria would think of that? The old woman in the glass bottle comes to mind.

OK so there are people worse off so shut up and accept your lot.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: magpie seanie on July 08, 2015, 09:42:00 AM
This country is a joke relevant to what it should be. Most people, from our "leaders" down have zero belief in ourselves as a nation. We need handouts from the "great" Europe "that has done soooo much for us". We can't create jobs so we have to get US MNC's to come in and to do that we have to offer sweeteners because why else would they come??? They're just examples of the flawed groupthink that prevails here and that annoys the hell out of me.

We never should have accepted the hosing we got (and continue to get) from the ECB. It is unjust and immoral and has depressed our economy and people wrongly for too long. Suicide rates are massively increasing but I suppose those people are just collateral damage. Maybe they should fcuk off to
Quotesomeplace that will satisfy your moral/political/commercial/social ideologies
if they don't like it.

While people go on accepting it and taking the "ah we can't do that" attitude we will remain down at heel, tugging the forelock as so often in our history. The sad part here is that it's largely our own fault now for not having the balls to do what's right for ourselves once in a while.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Rossfan on July 08, 2015, 09:51:40 AM
So tell us what we should have done and when we should have started doing it?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Dinny Breen on July 08, 2015, 10:54:53 AM
Quote from: magpie seanie on July 08, 2015, 09:31:24 AM
Quote from: Dinny Breen on July 08, 2015, 03:54:56 AM
1st world problems whinging about the state of a country on the internet! Please tell me he sees the irony in that? Wonder what the 4 million off refugees in Syria would think of that? The old woman in the glass bottle comes to mind.

OK so there are people worse off so shut up and accept your lot.

Yes you need a dose of reality Seanie. Your whinging about the political landscape is pathetic. What have you as an individual done to affect this? You have probably contributed to this culture of cronyism that is rampant in Ireland as we all have - have you ever paid cash only for a job, expected cash payment for a job? Every walk of life in Ireland people are trying to cheat the system no matter how small yet somehow we expect our politicians to be morally and ethically above this. They are merely reflection of us.

You mentioned India, christ on a bike over 1/3 of their population (400m) live on less than $1.25 a day. Thousands die of diarrhea every week. If you think that will change 20/30 years you are stone wall mad.

Everyday I have more positive experiences than negative, maybe you don't I would feel sorry for you if that was the case. The compassion and generosity of Irish people is fantastic, my education was paid for by the government and by one those multi-nationals that employ 1000s and pay millions in PRSI and whose employees pay millions more in PAYE and stealth taxes. My paid for education sent me to WIT, DIT and TCD - how many countries in the world would allow that opportunity. Both my kids were born in the public health system and it was a fantastic experience. My mother spent her last months in the public health system and those people who work in Irish Hospices are some of the greatest Irish people alive, again how many countries support your fight against Cancer through the public health system with fantastic resources(people and medicine) made available and then when you lose that fight that you can die with dignity.

Every country in the world suffers from incompetent politicians, poor decisions lead to war, poverty and economic collapse. No society is perfect Ireland certainly isn't but I will continue to pay my taxes I will continue to contribute and support my local community, I will still donate to local, national and international charities, I will still try and influence my own children to be the best they can be, I will use my vote as best I can to ensure equal opportunity for everyone and for every f*cking kick in the teeth I get I will pick myself up climb that hurdle and move the f*ck on and stay as positive as I can. The only person I allow to affect my life is me.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: AZOffaly on July 08, 2015, 11:00:50 AM
Quote from: Dinny Breen on July 08, 2015, 10:54:53 AM
Quote from: magpie seanie on July 08, 2015, 09:31:24 AM
Quote from: Dinny Breen on July 08, 2015, 03:54:56 AM
1st world problems whinging about the state of a country on the internet! Please tell me he sees the irony in that? Wonder what the 4 million off refugees in Syria would think of that? The old woman in the glass bottle comes to mind.

OK so there are people worse off so shut up and accept your lot.

Yes you need a dose of reality Seanie. Your whinging about the political landscape is pathetic. What have you as an individual done to affect this? You have probably contributed to this culture of cronyism that is rampant in Ireland as we all have - have you ever paid cash only for a job, expected cash payment for a job? Every walk of life in Ireland people are trying to cheat the system no matter how small yet somehow we expect our politicians to be morally and ethically above this. They are merely reflection of us.

You mentioned India, christ on a bike over 1/3 of their population (400m) live on less than $1.25 a day. Thousands die of diarrhea every week. If you think that will change 20/30 years you are stone wall mad.

Everyday I have more positive experiences than negative, maybe you don't I would feel sorry for you if that was the case. The compassion and generosity of Irish people is fantastic, my education was paid for by the government and by one those multi-nationals that employ 1000s and pay millions in PRSI and whose employees pay millions more in PAYE and stealth taxes. My paid for education sent me to WIT, DIT and TCD - how many countries in the world would allow that opportunity. Both my kids were born in the public health system and it was a fantastic experience. My mother spent her last months in the public health system and those people who work in Irish Hospices are some of the greatest Irish people alive, again how many countries support your fight against Cancer through the public health system with fantastic resources(people and medicine) made available and then when you lose that fight that you can die with dignity.

Every country in the world suffers from incompetent politicians, poor decisions lead to war, poverty and economic collapse. No society is perfect Ireland certainly isn't but I will continue to pay my taxes I will continue to contribute and support my local community, I will still donate to local, national and international charities, I will still try and influence my own children to be the best they can be, I will use my vote as best I can to ensure equal opportunity for everyone and for every f*cking kick in the teeth I get I will pick myself up climb that hurdle and move the f*ck on and stay as positive as I can. The only person I allow to affect my life is me.

*applause*
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: macdanger2 on July 08, 2015, 11:01:50 AM
Quote from: magpie seanie on July 08, 2015, 09:42:00 AM
While people go on accepting it and taking the "ah we can't do that" attitude we will remain down at heel, tugging the forelock as so often in our history. The sad part here is that it's largely our own fault now for not having the balls to do what's right for ourselves once in a while.

Serious question: what would you do differently - concrete things that would make a difference - if you were elected as a benevolent dicatator in the morning?

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: magpie seanie on July 08, 2015, 11:05:40 AM
QuoteThe only person I allow to affect my life is me.

:'(
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Bord na Mona man on July 08, 2015, 11:10:29 AM
Quote from: easytiger95 on July 06, 2015, 01:44:35 PM
Problem was we had historically low interest rates at the wrong times - the start of the euro was just the spark needed. So whilst it meant that Germany could sell their manufacturing goods abroad in a currency much weaker then the deutsche mark, we were borrowing loads of said currency without a thought of consequences.

Which is not to say we didn't throw petrol on the flames ourselves - SSIAs, tax breaks on property, boom getting boomier etc

We really should be suing whichever academic body gave McCreevey and Ahern accounting degrees.
The SSIAs weren't such a problem in the end. By the time they had matured, 2006 and 2007, there were already signs that the Irish economy was in bother.
The Irish housing market started to stall around summer 2006 and this was reflected in the official figures by early 2007.
I don't think people ever got to splurge SSIAs the way people predicted in the end. And if they did, surely they were spending hard cash rather than credit?

Maybe the unintended consequence of them was that it caused people to hurry up putting down a deposit on a house in the years leading to up to their maturity, as these savers felt they needed to get the jump on those who were going to use their SSIA to fund a house purchase.

Also, it might be argued that once the SSIA scheme was in place it gave the government the false sense of security that the scheme was a counter balance to some of the more extravagant spending it was about to embark on.

The Irish boom from about 1994 to 2001 was a genuine one based on increased output in the economy. 2001 to 2006 was a credit bubble, especially around property. Many people point out that the Germans bear a lot of responsibility for the free and easy access to credit, post single currency adoption. Very few are giving Osama bin Laden credit for his role in the crash. Remember how jittery things were post 9/11? The Americans lead the charge in printing money and setting low interest rates and the Europeans did similar.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Dinny Breen on July 08, 2015, 11:21:41 AM
Quote from: magpie seanie on July 08, 2015, 11:05:40 AM
QuoteThe only person I allow to affect my life is me.

:'(

I will leave you to your self loathing. No one is more blind than a man who refuses to see. If you can't affect your own life then maybe you live in the life you deserve.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: magpie seanie on July 08, 2015, 11:38:09 AM
Quote from: Rossfan on July 08, 2015, 09:51:40 AM
So tell us what we should have done and when we should have started doing it?

Have not a lot of time but try these for starters:

Fisheries - totally sold ourselves out with the EU on this, getting robbed senseless for years at huge loss to our economy. could try to salvage something from this wreckage by investing in processing but that will not get votes in Dublin. Oil/Gas - sold the rights for a song and refuse to do anything about it because - ahem, we're "afraid the oil companies will leave it in the ground" Such utter horse manure. Huge profits stand to be made and if it's now or 20/30 years down the line the State needs to get a much bigger slice of the pie. They are our national resources, despite what treasonous politicians did.
Tourism - absolutely no effort has been made until the last couple of years to develop tourism and those efforts are by accident, not by any concerted public policy measures. The boom in outdoor activity has meant local people are demanding facilities and this is helping our tourism growth together with the 9% VAT rate keeping prices more competitive. The 9% rate was designed to get people off the live register so the Govt could be re-elected but a happy side effect seems to have been a boon to the tourist trade.
Bank Debt. This is a no-brainer. Even after the fateful night of the guarantee, we had several opportunities to refuse to pay the illegal and immoral bank debt that has been foisted on all citizens and our children and possibly their children. There was zero appetite for this in the political classes and I firmly believe no effort whatsoever was made to get any sort of write down. At the time, the core nation(s) had an awful lot to lose if we played hard ball but we rolled over like puppies, as we always do.
Zero tolerance of political cronyism/corruption - speaks for itself. The US is a fucked up place but if there is any hint of impropriety the politician walks. The UK also has higher standards. We give them enough votes to top the poll the next time they face the electorate.

I love Ireland and I have a great life. I am lucky that I can just about pay my bills and provide for my kids. I have worked bloody hard for everything I have got and will continue to do so. Lots of people are not as lucky as I am and will never have a chance in a country as wasteful and weak as ours. They are abandoned as the place is run for the benefit of a few. I want a better country and I will argue for it until I can't breathe any more. Since I've been a teenager I have been heavily involved in my community and always will be. I dabbled in politics when in college but found out quickly that I could have no major impact there, given my background and my nature. I am hoping that a new political movement emerges that I can believe in but there is none in Ireland at the moment. I'm astonished one hasn't with all the rubbish we've had to put up with.

So I'm sorry if my "whinging" upsets people. I'm not ready to accept that our country can't be much better.

Hope this answers most of the questions as I have to log off for a while - I'm not avoiding anyone.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: magpie seanie on July 08, 2015, 11:39:01 AM
Quote from: Dinny Breen on July 08, 2015, 11:21:41 AM
Quote from: magpie seanie on July 08, 2015, 11:05:40 AM
QuoteThe only person I allow to affect my life is me.

:'(

I will leave you to your self loathing. No one is more blind than a man who refuses to see. If you can't affect your own life then maybe you live in the life you deserve.

I'm hurt Dinny!!! I thought I was supposed to be the angry one????

Loads of people affect my life every day - I just thought it was an odd comment. You are master of your own destiny.....to a point.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: AZOffaly on July 08, 2015, 11:45:00 AM
Quote from: magpie seanie on July 08, 2015, 11:38:09 AM
Quote from: Rossfan on July 08, 2015, 09:51:40 AM
So tell us what we should have done and when we should have started doing it?

Have not a lot of time but try these for starters:

Fisheries - totally sold ourselves out with the EU on this, getting robbed senseless for years at huge loss to our economy. could try to salvage something from this wreckage by investing in processing but that will not get votes in Dublin. Oil/Gas - sold the rights for a song and refuse to do anything about it because - ahem, we're "afraid the oil companies will leave it in the ground" Such utter horse manure. Huge profits stand to be made and if it's now or 20/30 years down the line the State needs to get a much bigger slice of the pie. They are our national resources, despite what treasonous politicians did.
Tourism - absolutely no effort has been made until the last couple of years to develop tourism and those efforts are by accident, not by any concerted public policy measures. The boom in outdoor activity has meant local people are demanding facilities and this is helping our tourism growth together with the 9% VAT rate keeping prices more competitive. The 9% rate was designed to get people off the live register so the Govt could be re-elected but a happy side effect seems to have been a boon to the tourist trade.
Bank Debt. This is a no-brainer. Even after the fateful night of the guarantee, we had several opportunities to refuse to pay the illegal and immoral bank debt that has been foisted on all citizens and our children and possibly their children. There was zero appetite for this in the political classes and I firmly believe no effort whatsoever was made to get any sort of write down. At the time, the core nation(s) had an awful lot to lose if we played hard ball but we rolled over like puppies, as we always do.
Zero tolerance of political cronyism/corruption - speaks for itself. The US is a fucked up place but if there is any hint of impropriety the politician walks. The UK also has higher standards. We give them enough votes to top the poll the next time they face the electorate.

I love Ireland and I have a great life. I am lucky that I can just about pay my bills and provide for my kids. I have worked bloody hard for everything I have got and will continue to do so. Lots of people are not as lucky as I am and will never have a chance in a country as wasteful and weak as ours. They are abandoned as the place is run for the benefit of a few. I want a better country and I will argue for it until I can't breathe any more. Since I've been a teenager I have been heavily involved in my community and always will be. I dabbled in politics when in college but found out quickly that I could have no major impact there, given my background and my nature. I am hoping that a new political movement emerges that I can believe in but there is none in Ireland at the moment. I'm astonished one hasn't with all the rubbish we've had to put up with.

So I'm sorry if my "whinging" upsets people. I'm not ready to accept that our country can't be much better.

Hope this answers most of the questions as I have to log off for a while - I'm not avoiding anyone.

Nobody said our country can't be much better. In fact not a lot of people would argue with anything you've written above.

However, that's a million miles from calling the country a 'lame ass' place, or a 'sorry excuse for a country'. It's a great country, compared to a lot of other places in the world, but it could be better in a lot of areas too. Exaggerating for effect doesn't make it more likely to happen, it just makes it more likely people will ignore your valid points. It's the Joe Brolly effect :D

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: magpie seanie on July 08, 2015, 11:47:48 AM
I don't think it's a great country when it's underperforming so miserably. You wouldn't accept that level of underperformance from a guy playing for Liverpool - why accept it from the country you love???
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: magpie seanie on July 08, 2015, 11:49:03 AM
The language I use reflects my utter frustration. I accept at times it can startle but I think it needs to to wake people up. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: AZOffaly on July 08, 2015, 11:51:43 AM
Quote from: magpie seanie on July 08, 2015, 11:47:48 AM
I don't think it's a great country when it's underperforming so miserably. You wouldn't accept that level of underperformance from a guy playing for Liverpool - why accept it from the country you love???

It's a great country that can be better. To carry your analogy, maybe we are Daniel Sturridge. The way you were talking earlier on, we're Iago Aspas.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Maguire01 on July 10, 2015, 05:52:30 PM
Syriza really playing a blinder. I wonder will some of our own politicians still be running for the photo opportunities?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: trileacman on July 10, 2015, 11:40:28 PM
Tsipras as a spin merchant is unparalleled, incredible really. As a leader though he is a sham. Some commented that Europe should hold the referendum again so they would overturn it. No need really when Tsipras is ready to accept the deal he was getting a week ago, austerity and all with no debt forgiveness. Reading some of the details there, siphoning deposits, selling all government assets, cutting pensions, you'd wonder just how much of Greece he'd sacrifice for the benefit of his party.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Rossfan on July 10, 2015, 11:56:14 PM
What do Pearse Doherty, Martina Anderson and the Irish loony left think of their hero now?
They were wetting themselves last Monday ::)
Empty pockets can concentrate th'oul mind alright.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: manfromdelmonte on July 10, 2015, 11:57:43 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on July 10, 2015, 11:56:14 PM
What do Pearse Doherty, Martina Anderson and the Irish loony left think of their hero now?
They were wetting themselves last Monday ::)
Empty pockets can concentrate th'oul mind alright.
They're going to get a debt write down though

Something we didn't get
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Maguire01 on July 11, 2015, 12:06:36 AM
Quote from: manfromdelmonte on July 10, 2015, 11:57:43 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on July 10, 2015, 11:56:14 PM
What do Pearse Doherty, Martina Anderson and the Irish loony left think of their hero now?
They were wetting themselves last Monday ::)
Empty pockets can concentrate th'oul mind alright.
They're going to get a debt write down though

Something we didn't get
That remains to be seen. Either way, Greece is in a much worse situation since they took charge.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: trileacman on July 11, 2015, 10:01:24 AM
Quote from: Maguire01 on July 11, 2015, 12:06:36 AM
Quote from: manfromdelmonte on July 10, 2015, 11:57:43 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on July 10, 2015, 11:56:14 PM
What do Pearse Doherty, Martina Anderson and the Irish loony left think of their hero now?
They were wetting themselves last Monday ::)
Empty pockets can concentrate th'oul mind alright.
They're going to get a debt write down though

Something we didn't get
That remains to be seen. Either way, Greece is in a much worse situation since they took charge.

The most significant thing Syriza have managed is to put the Greek banks further in the shitter by scaring the country into removing 37 billion from it's account's. Therefore everyone who uses the Greek banking system on a regular basis are fucked if they go under, which like it or not, includes almost all the citizens of Greece.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: muppet on July 11, 2015, 04:20:08 PM
Quote from: manfromdelmonte on July 10, 2015, 11:57:43 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on July 10, 2015, 11:56:14 PM
What do Pearse Doherty, Martina Anderson and the Irish loony left think of their hero now?
They were wetting themselves last Monday ::)
Empty pockets can concentrate th'oul mind alright.
They're going to get a debt write down though

Something we didn't get

Greece is going to get a write down whether they stay in the Euro or not. Not because of politics but because they simply can't pay it all back.

The rest of us will pay for this write down.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Rossfan on July 11, 2015, 05:15:29 PM
Hopefully they don't write it down for another 30 or 40 years anyway.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: macdanger2 on July 11, 2015, 07:20:05 PM
Why not?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Rossfan on July 11, 2015, 10:44:45 PM
I won't have to pay for it then and by then the younger Irish taxpayers will have cleared the debts of Anglo, Quinlan, Dunn's, Ronan, Quinn and all the rest.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: macdanger2 on July 12, 2015, 12:14:32 AM
Greece won't recover economically without a write down. No recovery = more bailouts or exit from the euro
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: bcarrier on July 12, 2015, 10:46:01 AM
Quote from: muppet on July 11, 2015, 04:20:08 PM
Quote from: manfromdelmonte on July 10, 2015, 11:57:43 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on July 10, 2015, 11:56:14 PM
What do Pearse Doherty, Martina Anderson and the Irish loony left think of their hero now?
They were wetting themselves last Monday ::)
Empty pockets can concentrate th'oul mind alright.
They're going to get a debt write down though

Something we didn't get

Greece is going to get a write down whether they stay in the Euro or not. Not because of politics but because they simply can't pay it all back.

The rest of us will pay for this write down.

The Greeks can't pay but Neither can pretty much everyone else including the US.

The stuff I have read indicates personal Greek debt will remain tied to the currency it was borrowed in ie the euro. This mean Greeks will be burdened with an increased debt burden relative  to their incomes in a depreciated currency. That won't work either.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: muppet on July 12, 2015, 09:23:46 PM
Quote from: bcarrier on July 12, 2015, 10:46:01 AM
Quote from: muppet on July 11, 2015, 04:20:08 PM
Quote from: manfromdelmonte on July 10, 2015, 11:57:43 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on July 10, 2015, 11:56:14 PM
What do Pearse Doherty, Martina Anderson and the Irish loony left think of their hero now?
They were wetting themselves last Monday ::)
Empty pockets can concentrate th'oul mind alright.
They're going to get a debt write down though

Something we didn't get

Greece is going to get a write down whether they stay in the Euro or not. Not because of politics but because they simply can't pay it all back.

The rest of us will pay for this write down.

The Greeks can't pay but Neither can pretty much everyone else including the US.

The stuff I have read indicates personal Greek debt will remain tied to the currency it was borrowed in ie the euro. This mean Greeks will be burdened with an increased debt burden relative  to their incomes in a depreciated currency. That won't work either.

WTF? That would be disastrous.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: trileacman on July 13, 2015, 01:01:53 AM
Time to do the decent thing and dump the Greeks out of the Euro. A harsh kick up the ass but it's what they need to see the reality of the situation. If you'd a brother mooching off you endlessly you'd eventually tell him to f**k off and it'd be in his interest to fend for himself. Same here, the Greek recovery will come about quicker if they're forced to put their house in order.

We're throwing good money after bad and the only winner here is those show-boating pricks in Syrzia who get to level the blame of austerity at the EU or those 60% who voted no. They should just man up and tell the Greek people it's either a painful default or a painful bailout and pick one which they reckon will serve their people best. Shoulder some responsiblity you skiving, spin-doctor c***ts.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Canalman on July 13, 2015, 08:59:45 AM
Wouldn't be too quick Trileacman to lap up everything that is written in the papers about Greece.

Not so long ago it was Ireland and the Irish "in the dock" .............. you know the Irish that were too up themselves to do housework, admit that they drove a 20th century registered car, fecklessly borrowing, off to New York shopping every other weekend etc etc etc.

For the life of me I can't understand how people are blaming everything on Syrizia (sic) who are only in power months.

The only definite I can see in all this is that it is very bad news for Turkey and their short term hopes in getting in to the EU ( if they still want to).
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: magpie seanie on July 13, 2015, 09:43:10 AM
Quote from: Canalman on July 13, 2015, 08:59:45 AM
Wouldn't be too quick Trileacman to lap up everything that is written in the papers about Greece.

Not so long ago it was Ireland and the Irish "in the dock" .............. you know the Irish that were too up themselves to do housework, admit that they drove a 20th century registered car, fecklessly borrowing, off to New York shopping every other weekend etc etc etc.

For the life of me I can't understand how people are blaming everything on Syrizia (sic) who are only in power months.

The only definite I can see in all this is that it is very bad news for Turkey and their short term hopes in getting in to the EU ( if they still want to).

The media and "western democracy in general is rabidly anti left wing. The primary aim of Merkel and co at the outset was to remove Syriza from power. The referendum put paid to that so they have to deal with them now. I think Syriza want to tax the mega rich and that was a stumbling block, until now. Syriza have played a blinder in my view. Unlike the lickspittles that represent us.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Premier Emperor on July 13, 2015, 09:48:39 AM
Quote from: magpie seanie on July 13, 2015, 09:43:10 AM
Syriza have played a blinder in my view. Unlike the lickspittles that represent us.
Playing a blinder in leaving the country in chaos, with queues at bank machines, capital flight out of Greek banks and Greece being top story around the world for being a basket case.
And then they lie down, as they were always going to do.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: magpie seanie on July 13, 2015, 10:17:00 AM
Quote from: Premier Emperor on July 13, 2015, 09:48:39 AM
Quote from: magpie seanie on July 13, 2015, 09:43:10 AM
Syriza have played a blinder in my view. Unlike the lickspittles that represent us.
Playing a blinder in leaving the country in chaos, with queues at bank machines, capital flight out of Greek banks and Greece being top story around the world for being a basket case.
And then they lie down, as they were always going to do.

I don't believe that's an accurate assessment.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: bcarrier on July 13, 2015, 10:29:38 AM
Quote from: magpie seanie on July 13, 2015, 10:17:00 AM
Quote from: Premier Emperor on July 13, 2015, 09:48:39 AM
Quote from: magpie seanie on July 13, 2015, 09:43:10 AM
Syriza have played a blinder in my view. Unlike the lickspittles that represent us.
Playing a blinder in leaving the country in chaos, with queues at bank machines, capital flight out of Greek banks and Greece being top story around the world for being a basket case.
And then they lie down, as they were always going to do.

I don't believe that's an accurate assessment.

I think they contributed to a run on the banks which created an additional hole of 10bn + and the resultant requirement to deposit assets in Luxembourg.

All sides are guilty. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: macdanger2 on July 13, 2015, 10:34:52 AM
I can't see this being the last bailout unless it includes a write-down. Unless they extend the loans over a 50-60years with a very low interest rate or something
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: trileacman on July 13, 2015, 11:35:14 AM
Quote from: magpie seanie on July 13, 2015, 09:43:10 AM
Quote from: Canalman on July 13, 2015, 08:59:45 AM
Wouldn't be too quick Trileacman to lap up everything that is written in the papers about Greece.

Not so long ago it was Ireland and the Irish "in the dock" .............. you know the Irish that were too up themselves to do housework, admit that they drove a 20th century registered car, fecklessly borrowing, off to New York shopping every other weekend etc etc etc.

For the life of me I can't understand how people are blaming everything on Syrizia (sic) who are only in power months.

The only definite I can see in all this is that it is very bad news for Turkey and their short term hopes in getting in to the EU ( if they still want to).

The media and "western democracy in general is rabidly anti left wing. The primary aim of Merkel and co at the outset was to remove Syriza from power. The referendum put paid to that so they have to deal with them now. I think Syriza want to tax the mega rich and that was a stumbling block, until now. Syriza have played a blinder in my view. Unlike the lickspittles that represent us.

You must have been very surprised to see them have a state asset firesale, cut old age pensions and tax the tourism sector like f**k overnight so. Specifically what have Syrzia achieved in your opinion?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Maguire01 on July 13, 2015, 11:47:57 AM
Quote from: magpie seanie on July 13, 2015, 09:43:10 AM
Quote from: Canalman on July 13, 2015, 08:59:45 AM
Wouldn't be too quick Trileacman to lap up everything that is written in the papers about Greece.

Not so long ago it was Ireland and the Irish "in the dock" .............. you know the Irish that were too up themselves to do housework, admit that they drove a 20th century registered car, fecklessly borrowing, off to New York shopping every other weekend etc etc etc.

For the life of me I can't understand how people are blaming everything on Syrizia (sic) who are only in power months.

The only definite I can see in all this is that it is very bad news for Turkey and their short term hopes in getting in to the EU ( if they still want to).

The media and "western democracy in general is rabidly anti left wing. The primary aim of Merkel and co at the outset was to remove Syriza from power. The referendum put paid to that so they have to deal with them now. I think Syriza want to tax the mega rich and that was a stumbling block, until now. Syriza have played a blinder in my view. Unlike the lickspittles that represent us.
How have they played a blinder? Setting aside the damage caused over the past few weeks, what have they achieved?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: muppet on July 13, 2015, 08:02:34 PM
No debt reduction apparently?

Everyone knows they can't pay.

Tsipiras has failed, but the other side are playing politics. We will be back here again in a couple of years, maybe sooner.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: magpie seanie on July 13, 2015, 08:21:23 PM
This is nowhere near over.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: EireOg1 on July 14, 2015, 01:44:55 AM
Sometimes its hard to explain  why, given the same opportunities, some countries do worse than others

What did Greece do wrong that Portugal, Ireland didn't do wrong ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: JPGJOHNNYG on July 14, 2015, 08:18:53 AM
Quote from: EireOg1 on July 14, 2015, 01:44:55 AM
Sometimes its hard to explain  why, given the same opportunities, some countries do worse than others

What did Greece do wrong that Portugal, Ireland didn't do wrong ?

The debts are very different. Irelands debt was all from property and construction so when the crash happened the construction boom halted and the debt didnt continue to grow and grow. Greek debt is nearly all from overpaying too many civil servants and paying pensions they cant afford. This debt without radical change just continues to mushroom.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: magpie seanie on July 14, 2015, 08:21:51 AM
Quote from: JPGJOHNNYG on July 14, 2015, 08:18:53 AM
Quote from: EireOg1 on July 14, 2015, 01:44:55 AM
Sometimes its hard to explain  why, given the same opportunities, some countries do worse than others

What did Greece do wrong that Portugal, Ireland didn't do wrong ?

The debts are very different. Irelands debt was all from property and construction so when the crash happened the construction boom halted and the debt didnt continue to grow and grow. Greek debt is nearly all from overpaying too many civil servants and paying pensions they cant afford. This debt without radical change just continues to mushroom.

That is not correct.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: bcarrier on July 14, 2015, 09:33:38 AM
Quote from: magpie seanie on July 14, 2015, 08:21:51 AM
Quote from: JPGJOHNNYG on July 14, 2015, 08:18:53 AM
Quote from: EireOg1 on July 14, 2015, 01:44:55 AM
Sometimes its hard to explain  why, given the same opportunities, some countries do worse than others

What did Greece do wrong that Portugal, Ireland didn't do wrong ?

The debts are very different. Irelands debt was all from property and construction so when the crash happened the construction boom halted and the debt didnt continue to grow and grow. Greek debt is nearly all from overpaying too many civil servants and paying pensions they cant afford. This debt without radical change just continues to mushroom.

That is not correct.

Ireland doesnt overpay civil servants and have a pensions time bomb ?

Every vested interest thinks someone else should pay.


Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: macdanger2 on July 14, 2015, 09:44:44 AM
Quote from: JPGJOHNNYG on July 14, 2015, 08:18:53 AM
Quote from: EireOg1 on July 14, 2015, 01:44:55 AM
Sometimes its hard to explain  why, given the same opportunities, some countries do worse than others

What did Greece do wrong that Portugal, Ireland didn't do wrong ?

The debts are very different. Irelands debt was all from property and construction so when the crash happened the construction boom halted and the debt didnt continue to grow and grow. Greek debt is nearly all from overpaying too many civil servants and paying pensions they cant afford. This debt without radical change just continues to mushroom.

I don't think that's really the case, Greece has been running a primary surplus (i.e. balancing the book excluding debt repayments) for the last couple of years yet the levels of debt have continued to increase. IMO, that's because the level of debt they currently have is unsustainable. Adding new debt on top of it isn't going to help matters. They probably do need to overhaul their public service but instead they'll probably do what we did – cut wages without any real reform or modernisation and then bump the wages back up again in a few years without solving the problem.

The reason Ireland has fared better than Greece is because our economy is heavily dependent on the US & UK – they've pulled out of recession over the last 3-4 years and have dragged us with them.

When the debt write-down eventually does happen, it will be interesting to see who holds the debt, from the graph in the article below, it looks as if UK, US & German banks each hold ~ 10Bn of Greek debt – I'd wager that that liability will have been transferred to taxpayers by the time it's written down.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33421521


Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: armaghniac on July 15, 2015, 12:36:26 PM
IMF not happy with proposed Greek deal as it does not explicitly write off debt, so they may decline to participate, which would put the cat among the pigeons.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: ludermor on July 16, 2015, 08:56:12 AM
Greece crisis: Parliament votes to accept austerity measures as Athens burns
http://www.independent.ie/business/world/greece-crisis-parliament-votes-to-accept-austerity-measures-as-athens-burns-31380933.html

How the f**k can Alexis Tsipras stay as prime minister after half his own party vote against the measures and he sings up for Austerity measures more strict than what was on the table 3 months ago. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Bord na Mona man on July 16, 2015, 09:36:39 AM
Quote from: ludermor on July 16, 2015, 08:56:12 AM
How the f**k can Alexis Tsipras stay as prime minister after half his own party vote against the measures and he sings up for Austerity measures more strict than what was on the table 3 months ago.
He's another Eamonn Gilmore - lots of rhetoric, no delivery.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Rossfan on July 16, 2015, 10:04:28 AM
Easy to talk big in opposition but when you get power and enter the real world.......
Sunn Féin please note....
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: JPGJOHNNYG on July 16, 2015, 10:14:29 AM
Quote from: ludermor on July 16, 2015, 08:56:12 AM
Greece crisis: Parliament votes to accept austerity measures as Athens burns
http://www.independent.ie/business/world/greece-crisis-parliament-votes-to-accept-austerity-measures-as-athens-burns-31380933.html

How the f**k can Alexis Tsipras stay as prime minister after half his own party vote against the measures and he sings up for Austerity measures more strict than what was on the table 3 months ago.

Only about 30 out of 150 Syriza MP's voted against the measures. In the UK the goverment whether its Tory or Labour often have similar amount of rebels in a number of important votes.
Tsipras had no hand to play with, he used the referendum to try and give him some leverage but the rest of Europe saw it for what it was. His only other option is Grexit which would in the short term anyway be catastrophic.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: ludermor on July 16, 2015, 11:30:44 AM
Quote from: JPGJOHNNYG on July 16, 2015, 10:14:29 AM
Quote from: ludermor on July 16, 2015, 08:56:12 AM
Greece crisis: Parliament votes to accept austerity measures as Athens burns
http://www.independent.ie/business/world/greece-crisis-parliament-votes-to-accept-austerity-measures-as-athens-burns-31380933.html

How the f**k can Alexis Tsipras stay as prime minister after half his own party vote against the measures and he sings up for Austerity measures more strict than what was on the table 3 months ago.

Only about 30 out of 150 Syriza MP's voted against the measures. In the UK the goverment whether its Tory or Labour often have similar amount of rebels in a number of important votes.
Tsipras had no hand to play with, he used the referendum to try and give him some leverage but the rest of Europe saw it for what it was. His only other option is Grexit which would in the short term anyway be catastrophic.
He has played all the hands he will ever get and fucked up the country more than when he started. How people can think he has played a blinder is beyond me.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: trileacman on July 16, 2015, 11:34:18 AM
Quote from: ludermor on July 16, 2015, 11:30:44 AM
Quote from: JPGJOHNNYG on July 16, 2015, 10:14:29 AM
Quote from: ludermor on July 16, 2015, 08:56:12 AM
Greece crisis: Parliament votes to accept austerity measures as Athens burns
http://www.independent.ie/business/world/greece-crisis-parliament-votes-to-accept-austerity-measures-as-athens-burns-31380933.html

How the f**k can Alexis Tsipras stay as prime minister after half his own party vote against the measures and he sings up for Austerity measures more strict than what was on the table 3 months ago.

Only about 30 out of 150 Syriza MP's voted against the measures. In the UK the goverment whether its Tory or Labour often have similar amount of rebels in a number of important votes.
Tsipras had no hand to play with, he used the referendum to try and give him some leverage but the rest of Europe saw it for what it was. His only other option is Grexit which would in the short term anyway be catastrophic.
He has played all the hands he will ever get and fucked up the country more than when he started. How people can think he has played a blinder is beyond me.

Exactly either parley with Europe or take a Grexit. Choose the best way forward for your people and show a bit of f**king backbone. He's a spoofer of the highest order.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Canalman on July 16, 2015, 11:53:21 AM
Quote from: Rossfan on July 16, 2015, 10:04:28 AM
Easy to talk big in opposition but when you get power and enter the real world.......
Sunn Féin please note....

Yep, same applies to Fine Gael, Labour, FF and oh every other party that finds itself in opposition in a democracy.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: macdanger2 on July 16, 2015, 11:57:30 AM
Quote from: trileacman on July 16, 2015, 11:34:18 AM
Quote from: ludermor on July 16, 2015, 11:30:44 AM
Quote from: JPGJOHNNYG on July 16, 2015, 10:14:29 AM
Quote from: ludermor on July 16, 2015, 08:56:12 AM
Greece crisis: Parliament votes to accept austerity measures as Athens burns
http://www.independent.ie/business/world/greece-crisis-parliament-votes-to-accept-austerity-measures-as-athens-burns-31380933.html

How the f**k can Alexis Tsipras stay as prime minister after half his own party vote against the measures and he sings up for Austerity measures more strict than what was on the table 3 months ago.

Only about 30 out of 150 Syriza MP's voted against the measures. In the UK the goverment whether its Tory or Labour often have similar amount of rebels in a number of important votes.
Tsipras had no hand to play with, he used the referendum to try and give him some leverage but the rest of Europe saw it for what it was. His only other option is Grexit which would in the short term anyway be catastrophic.
He has played all the hands he will ever get and fucked up the country more than when he started. How people can think he has played a blinder is beyond me.

Exactly either parley with Europe or take a Grexit. Choose the best way forward for your people and show a bit of f**king backbone. He's a spoofer of the highest order.

He was elected on an anti-austerity ticket, he took that to the brink in the hope of getting a better deal for Greece and lost out. His alternative was to leave the Euro and / or get assistance from Russia / China (those may not even have been options) and he obviously didn't think that was best for Greece and / or not what the Greek people wanted.

It's the equivalent of betting big early on in a poker game, hoping to bully your way to the pot but when you're called all-in with nothing in your hand, your only option is to fold.

I don't know how you can say he's shown a lack of backbone, he completely misjudged the situation and that's his fault - if he wanted to play hardball, he had to be willing call the EU's bluff and to leave the euro. But I think it's incorrect to say he's shown a lack of backbone. I wouldn't say he's played a blinder either though.

If you don't agree with the way he played it, then which alternative should he have chosen:

1. Accept the bailout upfront and backtrack on his election promises??
2. Take Greece out of the euro even though polls indicate that most Greeks don't want that??
3. AN Other??

In retrospect, what he should have done was to make the referendum a straight In/Out question on the Euro
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: easytiger95 on July 16, 2015, 12:16:57 PM
If you get elected on an anti-austerity ticket, then fail in your negotiations to reduce austerity, then walk from those negotiations to call a referendum to reject the negotiated deal, then fold and accept conditions far worse then the previous deal, you've not only failed as a negotiator, you've also betrayed your supporters, if not your country.

the big problem with Syrizia was not promising an end to austerity, it was saying you could end austerity whilst remaining in the euro. Tspiras should have gone into negotiations having told his country that if it went wrong, they would have to leave the Euro. At least then the country would have had six months to prepare and Europe might have taken him a lot more seriously, rather than regarding him and his government as the only suckers at the table.

A complete failure as a Prime Minister so far.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: ludermor on July 16, 2015, 01:42:17 PM
Quote from: macdanger2 on July 16, 2015, 11:57:30 AM
Quote from: trileacman on July 16, 2015, 11:34:18 AM
Quote from: ludermor on July 16, 2015, 11:30:44 AM
Quote from: JPGJOHNNYG on July 16, 2015, 10:14:29 AM
Quote from: ludermor on July 16, 2015, 08:56:12 AM
Greece crisis: Parliament votes to accept austerity measures as Athens burns
http://www.independent.ie/business/world/greece-crisis-parliament-votes-to-accept-austerity-measures-as-athens-burns-31380933.html

How the f**k can Alexis Tsipras stay as prime minister after half his own party vote against the measures and he sings up for Austerity measures more strict than what was on the table 3 months ago.

Only about 30 out of 150 Syriza MP's voted against the measures. In the UK the goverment whether its Tory or Labour often have similar amount of rebels in a number of important votes.
Tsipras had no hand to play with, he used the referendum to try and give him some leverage but the rest of Europe saw it for what it was. His only other option is Grexit which would in the short term anyway be catastrophic.
He has played all the hands he will ever get and fucked up the country more than when he started. How people can think he has played a blinder is beyond me.

Exactly either parley with Europe or take a Grexit. Choose the best way forward for your people and show a bit of f**king backbone. He's a spoofer of the highest order.

He was elected on an anti-austerity ticket, he took that to the brink in the hope of getting a better deal for Greece and lost out. His alternative was to leave the Euro and / or get assistance from Russia / China (those may not even have been options) and he obviously didn't think that was best for Greece and / or not what the Greek people wanted.

It's the equivalent of betting big early on in a poker game, hoping to bully your way to the pot but when you're called all-in with nothing in your hand, your only option is to fold.

I don't know how you can say he's shown a lack of backbone, he completely misjudged the situation and that's his fault - if he wanted to play hardball, he had to be willing call the EU's bluff and to leave the euro. But I think it's incorrect to say he's shown a lack of backbone. I wouldn't say he's played a blinder either though.

If you don't agree with the way he played it, then which alternative should he have chosen:

1. Accept the bailout upfront and backtrack on his election promises??
2. Take Greece out of the euro even though polls indicate that most Greeks don't want that??
3. AN Other??

In retrospect, what he should have done was to make the referendum a straight In/Out question on the Euro
Why did he have a referendum in the first case? That was his biggest cop out, asking people who have put up with Austerity for 6-7 years to vote for even more tougher austerity was never going to happen.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: macdanger2 on July 16, 2015, 03:43:18 PM
He had a referendum to try and force the EUs hand into a better deal. It completely backfired on him and he isn't prepared to leave the euro so he had to do a 180.


Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Maguire01 on July 16, 2015, 07:49:07 PM
Quote from: macdanger2 on July 16, 2015, 11:57:30 AM
Quote from: trileacman on July 16, 2015, 11:34:18 AM
Quote from: ludermor on July 16, 2015, 11:30:44 AM
Quote from: JPGJOHNNYG on July 16, 2015, 10:14:29 AM
Quote from: ludermor on July 16, 2015, 08:56:12 AM
Greece crisis: Parliament votes to accept austerity measures as Athens burns
http://www.independent.ie/business/world/greece-crisis-parliament-votes-to-accept-austerity-measures-as-athens-burns-31380933.html

How the f**k can Alexis Tsipras stay as prime minister after half his own party vote against the measures and he sings up for Austerity measures more strict than what was on the table 3 months ago.

Only about 30 out of 150 Syriza MP's voted against the measures. In the UK the goverment whether its Tory or Labour often have similar amount of rebels in a number of important votes.
Tsipras had no hand to play with, he used the referendum to try and give him some leverage but the rest of Europe saw it for what it was. His only other option is Grexit which would in the short term anyway be catastrophic.
He has played all the hands he will ever get and fucked up the country more than when he started. How people can think he has played a blinder is beyond me.

Exactly either parley with Europe or take a Grexit. Choose the best way forward for your people and show a bit of f**king backbone. He's a spoofer of the highest order.

He was elected on an anti-austerity ticket, he took that to the brink in the hope of getting a better deal for Greece and lost out. His alternative was to leave the Euro and / or get assistance from Russia / China (those may not even have been options) and he obviously didn't think that was best for Greece and / or not what the Greek people wanted.

It's the equivalent of betting big early on in a poker game, hoping to bully your way to the pot but when you're called all-in with nothing in your hand, your only option is to fold.

I don't know how you can say he's shown a lack of backbone, he completely misjudged the situation and that's his fault - if he wanted to play hardball, he had to be willing call the EU's bluff and to leave the euro. But I think it's incorrect to say he's shown a lack of backbone. I wouldn't say he's played a blinder either though.

If you don't agree with the way he played it, then which alternative should he have chosen:

1. Accept the bailout upfront and backtrack on his election promises??
2. Take Greece out of the euro even though polls indicate that most Greeks don't want that??
3. AN Other??

In retrospect, what he should have done was to make the referendum a straight In/Out question on the Euro
It would have been a lot cheaper than the current situation. The last 6 months have been a disaster for Greece - a very bad situation has gotten significantly worse under the current administration.

From the IMF's report that talks about the need for debt relief:
Greece's public debt has become highly unsustainable. This is due to the easing of policies during the last year, with the recent deterioration in the domestic macroeconomic and financial environment because of the closure of the banking system adding significantly to the adverse dynamics.

The easing of policies and the current state of the banks is a direct result of Syriza being in power. You could argue that debt was unsustainable before 2015, but things are even worse now.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: macdanger2 on July 20, 2015, 02:51:49 PM
Dunno if anyone heard the play / radio drama "The Fund" on Rte Radio 1 last night, well worth a listen on the player

It's basically about a guy called Davison Budhoo who resigned from the IMF in 1988 having worked as a fund manager with the IMF when they overestimated the Relative Labour Unit Cost (essentially a measure of competitiveness of labour costs) to impose a program on Trinidad & Tobago back in the 80s.

Not much details about him online but this covers most of what was in the play:

http://www.thirdworldtraveler.com/IMF_WB/Budhoo_IMF.html

I thought the bit about privatising public assets in particular resonates with the recent deal in Greece
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: muppet on August 13, 2015, 12:09:29 AM
Quote from: macdanger2 on July 20, 2015, 02:51:49 PM
Dunno if anyone heard the play / radio drama "The Fund" on Rte Radio 1 last night, well worth a listen on the player

It's basically about a guy called Davison Budhoo who resigned from the IMF in 1988 having worked as a fund manager with the IMF when they overestimated the Relative Labour Unit Cost (essentially a measure of competitiveness of labour costs) to impose a program on Trinidad & Tobago back in the 80s.

Not much details about him online but this covers most of what was in the play:

http://www.thirdworldtraveler.com/IMF_WB/Budhoo_IMF.html

I thought the bit about privatising public assets in particular resonates with the recent deal in Greece

Interesting read that.

Tells you all you need to know about Reagan and Thatcher.

I see the PBOC devalued the Yuan last night. That is a complete reversal of policy up to now.

The experts are saying Yellen won't be able to start raising interest rates soon as she had promised.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: muppet on August 13, 2015, 01:13:46 AM
Interesting chart. Basically annual tax revenues divided into total public debt:

(http://goldsilverworldscom.c.presscdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/public_debt_vs_tax_revenues_2012.gif)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: muppet on August 14, 2015, 10:51:42 AM
Quote from: muppet on August 13, 2015, 12:09:29 AM
Quote from: macdanger2 on July 20, 2015, 02:51:49 PM
Dunno if anyone heard the play / radio drama "The Fund" on Rte Radio 1 last night, well worth a listen on the player

It's basically about a guy called Davison Budhoo who resigned from the IMF in 1988 having worked as a fund manager with the IMF when they overestimated the Relative Labour Unit Cost (essentially a measure of competitiveness of labour costs) to impose a program on Trinidad & Tobago back in the 80s.

Not much details about him online but this covers most of what was in the play:

http://www.thirdworldtraveler.com/IMF_WB/Budhoo_IMF.html

I thought the bit about privatising public assets in particular resonates with the recent deal in Greece

Interesting read that.

Tells you all you need to know about Reagan and Thatcher.

I see the PBOC devalued the Yuan last night. That is a complete reversal of policy up to now.

The experts are saying Yellen won't be able to start raising interest rates soon as she had promised.

And today they raised it again......

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0814/721151-china-halts-slide-in-yuans-value-after-2-drop/ (http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0814/721151-china-halts-slide-in-yuans-value-after-2-drop/)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: muppet on August 20, 2015, 07:31:53 PM
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34007859 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34007859)

Tspiras calls a General Election 7 months after he was elected on the back of an anti-austerity campaign, which he tore up.

How do posters think he will get on?  :D
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: macdanger2 on August 20, 2015, 08:59:50 PM
Is he going to contest the election? If so, under what stance?

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: muppet on August 20, 2015, 09:22:32 PM
Quote from: macdanger2 on August 20, 2015, 08:59:50 PM
Is he going to contest the election? If so, under what stance?

I think he has discovered that the only thing he is good at is elections.

He won in January on an anti-austerity ticket, which he tore up.

He ran a snap referendum on a NO DEAL to the EU/MF proposals, which he tore up and accepted a worse deal.

Here is what the great man himself said today:

"The political mandate of the 25 January elections has exhausted its limits and now the Greek people have to have their say," he said.
"I want to be honest with you. We did not achieve the agreement we expected before the January elections."
Mr Tsipras said he would seek the Greek people's approval to continue his government's programme.


He likes his mandates. Even if he completely ignores them.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: Rossfan on August 20, 2015, 11:14:00 PM
Beggars can't be choosers  ;)
SF please note - in between feuds
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone? (Greece In? Out? In? Out?)
Post by: muppet on August 24, 2015, 01:38:21 PM
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-18/23-nations-around-world-where-stock-market-crashes-are-already-happening (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-18/23-nations-around-world-where-stock-market-crashes-are-already-happening)

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/18/2015

You can stop waiting for a global financial crisis to happen.  The truth is that one is happening right now.  All over the world, stock markets are already crashing.  Most of these stock market crashes are occurring in nations that are known as "emerging markets".  In recent years, developing countries in Asia, South America and Africa loaded up on lots of cheap loans that were denominated in U.S. dollars.  But now that the U.S. dollar has been surging, those borrowers are finding that it takes much more of their own local currencies to service those loans.  At the same time, prices are crashing for many of the commodities that those countries export.  The exact same kind of double whammy caused the Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s and the Asian financial crisis of the 1990s.

As you read this article, almost every single stock market in the world is down significantly from a record high that was set either earlier this year or late in 2014.  But even though stocks have been sliding in the western world, they haven't completely collapsed just yet.

In much of the developing world, it is a very different story.  Emerging market currencies are crashing hard, recessions are starting, and equity prices are getting absolutely hammered.

Posted below is a list that I put together of 23 nations around the world where stock market crashes are already happening.  To see the stock market chart for each country, just click the link...

1. Malaysia

2. Brazil

3. Egypt

4. China

5. Indonesia

6. South Korea

7. Turkey

8. Chile

9. Colombia

10. Peru

11. Bulgaria

12. Greece

13. Poland

14. Serbia

15. Slovenia

16. Ukraine

17. Ghana

18. Kenya

19. Morocco

20. Nigeria

21. Singapore

22. Taiwan

23. Thailand

Of course this is just the beginning.  The western world is going to feel this kind of pain as well very soon.  I want to share with you an excerpt from an article that just appeared in the Telegraph entitled "Doomsday clock for global market crash strikes one minute to midnight as central banks lose control".  You see, the Telegraph is not just one of the most important newspapers in the UK – it is truly one of the most important newspapers in the entire world.  When it speaks on financial matters, millions of people listen very carefully.  So for the Telegraph to declare that the countdown to a "global market crash" is "one minute to midnight" is a very, very big deal...
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Franko on August 24, 2015, 04:18:11 PM
This was written on 25th June this year... it doesn't make good reading.

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/the-economic-collapse-blog-has-issued-a-red-alert-for-the-last-six-months-of-2015

**Edit - whilst the first portion of this article seems to be based on sound mathematical and statistical evidence, in the latter part of it the author seems to go off on a religious-nut type ramble.  Kinda tarnishes the impact of the whole thing for me.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Billys Boots on August 24, 2015, 04:31:43 PM
One of Gordon Brown's former advisors is tweeting today that people should buy lots of tinned foods and expect to go into apocalypse-mode shortly. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on August 24, 2015, 05:45:24 PM
Quote from: Franko on August 24, 2015, 04:18:11 PM
This was written on 25th June this year... it doesn't make good reading.

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/the-economic-collapse-blog-has-issued-a-red-alert-for-the-last-six-months-of-2015

**Edit - whilst the first portion of this article seems to be based on sound mathematical and statistical evidence, in the latter part of it the author seems to go off on a religious-nut type ramble.  Kinda tarnishes the impact of the whole thing for me.

Same author as the link I put up.

But there are lots and lots of guys predicting this coming crash for a long time now. I am not financially literate so I can't really comprehend a lot of what they are pointing to.

Mike Maloney has a nice style of relatively short presentation, for the layman on a lot of these issues: https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=mike+maloney (https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=mike+maloney)

The only thing is, he is selling Gold & Silver for a living so has a vested interest. The (other) only thing is, this time, Gold is going down too. That makes no sense.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on August 24, 2015, 06:39:47 PM
http://www.rightrelevance.com/search/articles/hero?article=40676da52be00f6928545c86e292cd979dcbe063&query=fixed%20income&taccount=govtbondsrr (http://www.rightrelevance.com/search/articles/hero?article=40676da52be00f6928545c86e292cd979dcbe063&query=fixed%20income&taccount=govtbondsrr)

Rumours of a 20% haircut for Ukraine on their debt.

Why does a country that overthrew its democratically elected pro-Russian leaders and replaced them with equally corrupt pro-Western leaders, get a haircut and Greece doesn't? Or is the answer in the question?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Clinker on August 25, 2015, 01:33:42 AM
Quote from: T Fearon on August 02, 2015, 05:33:50 AM

25,000 from so called big counties like Tyrone,Donegal and Galway is a disgrace,for a Championship game.Hiw many band wagon jumpers from each of the above counties will be moaning about All Ireland Final tickets should their county reach that stage?


Not a disgrace.
Going but not gone yet.
It is going to be a slow demise and not sudden.
Everything public will be rustier in five years time - less looked after - less cared for.
Time for selfishness to be gone from lives - bring the girl/wife/family out for a wee meal and a bit of craic instead of blowing "extra" money on travel, pints and matches that are on the television.
Support your own people and your Club (instead of a makey up broader area) for those are the people who will be with you in the end.
Communities will survive this but the hand-me-down pay outs are coming to an end.
Stick with your own - today's County watching party goers will suffer a similar fate except you won't be in their company anymore.
Generosity begins at home.
Be generous whilst financial time is on your side - it is going away and none of us will see it back.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: theskull1 on August 25, 2015, 01:36:07 AM
(http://i.imgur.com/IzLb6BT.jpg)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: armaghniac on August 25, 2015, 01:56:14 AM
Quote from: Clinker on August 25, 2015, 01:33:42 AM
Time for selfishness to be gone from lives - bring the girl/wife/family out for a wee meal and a bit of craic instead of blowing "extra" money on travel, pints and matches that are on the television.
Support your own people and your Club (instead of a makey up broader area) for those are the people who will be with you in the end.

Huge numbers attended games when things were much worse than this "crisis" and if you are a GAA person then going to a game is craic.

I note the Euro has reversed its decline since the China thing became prominent. China holds most of its loot in dollars, and it might sell some of these.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on August 25, 2015, 11:25:29 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on August 25, 2015, 01:56:14 AM
Quote from: Clinker on August 25, 2015, 01:33:42 AM
Time for selfishness to be gone from lives - bring the girl/wife/family out for a wee meal and a bit of craic instead of blowing "extra" money on travel, pints and matches that are on the television.
Support your own people and your Club (instead of a makey up broader area) for those are the people who will be with you in the end.

Huge numbers attended games when things were much worse than this "crisis" and if you are a GAA person then going to a game is craic.

I note the Euro has reversed its decline since the China thing became prominent. China holds most of its loot in dollars, and it might sell some of these.

Currency war is now involving everyone?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: thejuice on August 27, 2015, 05:54:49 PM
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-27/its-official-china-confirms-it-has-begun-liquidating-treasuries-warns-washington

China selling off its $$$ ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on August 28, 2015, 03:32:16 PM
Quote from: thejuice on August 27, 2015, 05:54:49 PM
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-27/its-official-china-confirms-it-has-begun-liquidating-treasuries-warns-washington

China selling off its $$$ ?

I liked this post in the comments:

Okay, I gotta figure this out:

The US borrowed money from China (China buys Treasuries).

China goes broke borrowing money from itself, and decides to cash in her IOU's.

The US is broke from borrowing money from itself and everyone else, which means the US's IOU's are worthless (The US can't pay back what it owes).

If yields (the interest on the bonds (treasuries) goes up, then the US really can't pay back.

Shit rolls downhill, which means that as the interest rates go up on Treasuries, that pushes interest rates up down the line, (ie at the broke-ass fractional reserve banks), and finally, the broke ass American public can't afford to buy a house made out of sawdust, chalk, and plastic wrap.

If the public is tapped out, well, that's when shit rolls back uphill, as in NOBODY CAN AFFORD TO GROW f**king FOOD, YOU STUPID BANKSTER MOTHERFUCKERS!!!!!!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on October 21, 2015, 06:28:18 PM
Meanwhile the US debt ceiling circus rolls back into town:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/65ae4e50-7811-11e5-a95a-27d368e1ddf7.html?ftcamp=published_links%2Frss%2Fhome_us%2Ffeed%2F%2Fproduct#axzz3pDy0kRFJ (http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/65ae4e50-7811-11e5-a95a-27d368e1ddf7.html?ftcamp=published_links%2Frss%2Fhome_us%2Ffeed%2F%2Fproduct#axzz3pDy0kRFJ)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on October 30, 2015, 06:55:09 PM
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-34676643 (http://www.bbc.com/news/business-34676643)

The London housing market has formed the world's biggest house price bubble, according to the Swiss bank, UBS.

It said the ratios of property prices to incomes, and property prices to rents, have reached all-time highs.

And it warned that London house prices have become more "decoupled" from household earnings than anywhere else in the world.
More than any other big city, the capital now faces the risk of a "substantial" price correction.

However it was not able to predict when any such correction might occur.

In its Global Real Estate Bubble Index, UBS says any city scoring more than 1.5 is at risk of a bubble.
London had the highest score, at 1.88.

Hong Kong came second, with a score of 1.67.

'Drastic'

Real house prices, after adjusting for inflation, have soared by almost 40% in London since the beginning of 2013, said UBS.

That makes London one of the most expensive cities in the world.

Amongst other findings in the report:
London house prices are, in real terms, 6% above their 2007 peak. This compares with a national drop in house prices of 18%
The decoupling of the London market is "even more drastic" considering that real average earnings have fallen by 7% since 2007.

The demand for London properties was largely driven by foreign investors, but domestic buyers have also helped to boost prices.
UBS said the government's Help to Buy scheme had stoked demand too.

On past experience, UBS said that a price correction of 30% usually occurs within three years of the index exceeding a score of 1.0.
New York, Boston and Chicago were among the cities at least risk of a housing bubble.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Kursk on October 30, 2015, 07:52:39 PM
Quote from: thejuice on August 27, 2015, 05:54:49 PM
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-27/its-official-china-confirms-it-has-begun-liquidating-treasuries-warns-washington

China selling off its $$$ ?

I expect to see a lot more of this. In this case the action had more to do with China's devaluation but I think people will have watched very closely to see the full  impact on the US and how they react. It is almost like an experiment, albeit an unintentional one in this case.There is scope in the future for more pro-actively aggressive actions. It would be interesting to see what would happen if China stretched the US economically at the same time that Russia initiated some action that caused political/defence repercussions.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on October 30, 2015, 09:27:10 PM
Quote from: muppet on August 24, 2015, 06:39:47 PM
http://www.rightrelevance.com/search/articles/hero?article=40676da52be00f6928545c86e292cd979dcbe063&query=fixed%20income&taccount=govtbondsrr (http://www.rightrelevance.com/search/articles/hero?article=40676da52be00f6928545c86e292cd979dcbe063&query=fixed%20income&taccount=govtbondsrr)

Rumours of a 20% haircut for Ukraine on their debt.

Why does a country that overthrew its democratically elected pro-Russian leaders and replaced them with equally corrupt pro-Western leaders, get a haircut and Greece doesn't? Or is the answer in the question?
Greece must be punished pour encourager les autres
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Kursk on October 30, 2015, 09:34:14 PM
Also it is not a coincidence that Greece is the most natural ally to Russia within the European Union.

See how all the pieces fall together ?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Kursk on October 31, 2015, 03:02:51 AM
I've never quite understood why they went after Greece so hard. It is not like other countries have not experienced financial difficulties.
Can anyone explain this ? They gave Ukraine a pass and they are not even in the EU !!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on October 31, 2015, 07:24:11 AM
Quote from: Kursk on October 31, 2015, 03:02:51 AM
I've never quite understood why they went after Greece so hard. It is not like other countries have not experienced financial difficulties.
Can anyone explain this ? They gave Ukraine a pass and they are not even in the EU !!

The US gave Ukraine a pass for strategic reasons.

Greece wasn't as strategic.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: CiKe on October 31, 2015, 08:22:57 AM
Clearly an element involved that Greece is in EU and not wanting to set precedent etc but although almost certainly not nearly enough and just a question of kicking the can down the road, Greece was given some relief through maturity extensions and whatnot.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on November 24, 2015, 04:56:10 PM
http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/lynch-banking-inquiry-will-meet-over-christmas-if-necessary-707026.html (http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/lynch-banking-inquiry-will-meet-over-christmas-if-necessary-707026.html)

These clowns having spent €5m on an equity, can't even agree a report into the enquiry. Surely in the event of conflicting evidence the report can simply publish all the evidence as presented to the enquiry.

If these clowns can't even perform a simply fact finding exercise competently, then they all be run out of the Dáil.

Here are the representatives involved:

Ciarán Lynch (Chairman) Labour
Pearse Doherty Sinn Féin
Joe Higgins Socialist Party
Michael McGrath Fianna Fáil
Eoghan Murphy Fine Gael
Kieran O'Donnell Fine Gael
John Paul Phelan Fine Gael
Senators:
Sean D Barrett Independent
Michael D'Arcy Fine Gael
Marc MacSharry Fianna Fáil
Susan O'Keeffe Labour
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on November 24, 2015, 05:30:27 PM
https://www.academia.edu/17957086/The_Political_Economy_of_Regulatory_Risk_Management_-_A_Case_Study_of_HBOS
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: armaghniac on November 24, 2015, 05:43:53 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 24, 2015, 04:56:10 PM
http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/lynch-banking-inquiry-will-meet-over-christmas-if-necessary-707026.html (http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/lynch-banking-inquiry-will-meet-over-christmas-if-necessary-707026.html)

These clowns having spent €5m on an equity, can't even agree a report into the enquiry. Surely in the event of conflicting evidence the report can simply publish all the evidence as presented to the enquiry.

Well they can publish a dump of all the transcripts, but that has little added value. I think the problem is that if they publish an edit which points the finger at someone that that person will sue.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on November 24, 2015, 05:46:18 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 24, 2015, 04:56:10 PM
http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/lynch-banking-inquiry-will-meet-over-christmas-if-necessary-707026.html (http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/lynch-banking-inquiry-will-meet-over-christmas-if-necessary-707026.html)

These clowns having spent €5m on an equity, can't even agree a report into the enquiry. Surely in the event of conflicting evidence the report can simply publish all the evidence as presented to the enquiry.

If these clowns can't even perform a simply fact finding exercise competently, then they all be run out of the Dáil.

Here are the representatives involved:

Ciarán Lynch (Chairman) Labour
Pearse Doherty Sinn Féin
Joe Higgins Socialist Party
Michael McGrath Fianna Fáil
Eoghan Murphy Fine Gael
Kieran O'Donnell Fine Gael
John Paul Phelan Fine Gael
Senators:
Sean D Barrett Independent
Michael D'Arcy Fine Gael
Marc MacSharry Fianna Fáil
Susan O'Keeffe Labour
Way too late. The political economy is very complex and no horses are to be frightened.
How safe is the economy now if something goes wrong again is a far more relevant question.

With negative rates in the EZ there is no margin to mop up the next mess.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on November 24, 2015, 07:15:55 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 24, 2015, 05:46:18 PM
Quote from: muppet on November 24, 2015, 04:56:10 PM
http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/lynch-banking-inquiry-will-meet-over-christmas-if-necessary-707026.html (http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/lynch-banking-inquiry-will-meet-over-christmas-if-necessary-707026.html)

These clowns having spent €5m on an equity, can't even agree a report into the enquiry. Surely in the event of conflicting evidence the report can simply publish all the evidence as presented to the enquiry.

If these clowns can't even perform a simply fact finding exercise competently, then they all be run out of the Dáil.

Here are the representatives involved:

Ciarán Lynch (Chairman) Labour
Pearse Doherty Sinn Féin
Joe Higgins Socialist Party
Michael McGrath Fianna Fáil
Eoghan Murphy Fine Gael
Kieran O'Donnell Fine Gael
John Paul Phelan Fine Gael
Senators:
Sean D Barrett Independent
Michael D'Arcy Fine Gael
Marc MacSharry Fianna Fáil
Susan O'Keeffe Labour
Way too late. The political economy is very complex and no horses are to be frightened.
How safe is the economy now if something goes wrong again is a far more relevant question.


With negative rates in the EZ there is no margin to mop up the next mess.

Yes but no we know what can happen, isn't it rather pathetic that we can't agree what went wrong, so that we can introduce safeguards against it happening again? Limiting mortgage approvals is just a tiny drop in the financial ocean. But as it is the only action taken to date, it would appear that the only people to blame are those parties involved in mortgages.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (and of Central Bank 'key' staff)
Post by: muppet on November 26, 2015, 10:37:11 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/1126/749477-unite-central-bank/ (http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/1126/749477-unite-central-bank/)

"The bank stressed that these are retention payments, not bonuses."

Unbelievable. An extra payment for staying, is not a bonus?

The Central Bank was paying some of its 'key' staff, outside the arrangement whereby all public servants and their 'bonuses withdrawn' (FEMPI). Some of us might view this type of payment as the same as brown envelopes or under the table payments. Regardless, the fact that the Central Bank was guilty of this, after all that happened, is unforgivable.

I look forward to the 2025 Dáil Committee report into the matter.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on November 26, 2015, 11:57:32 PM
The ez has a deflation problem. Ecb interest rates are below zero and could go even further.
Draghi cant do much.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on November 27, 2015, 11:07:38 AM
Here's a very interesting angle

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/457a3484-9443-11e5-bd82-c1fb87bef7af.html

"Reinstating full border controls would be hugely expensive. Officials lack the staff, equipment or infrastructure. Were it to happen, the Schengen accord may revert to the mini-zones, such as the Benelux or Nordic free movement areas, that pre-dated the project. Such a break-up could mark a dangerous collective loss of trust. "If the spirit leaves our hearts, we will lose more than the Schengen," said Mr Juncker. "A single currency does not exist if the Schengen fails.""
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Declan on November 27, 2015, 11:38:12 AM
The Politics of Economic Stupidity

NEW YORK – In 2014, the world economy remained stuck in the same rut that it has been in since emerging from the 2008 global financial crisis. Despite seemingly strong government action in Europe and the United States, both economies suffered deep and prolonged downturns. The gap between where they are and where they most likely would have been had the crisis not erupted is huge. In Europe, it increased over the course of the year.

Developing countries fared better, but even there the news was grim. The most successful of these economies, having based their growth on exports, continued to expand in the wake of the financial crisis, even as their export markets struggled. But their performance, too, began to diminish significantly in 2014.

In 1992, Bill Clinton based his successful campaign for the US presidency on a simple slogan: "It's the economy, stupid." From today's perspective, things then do not seem so bad; the typical American household's income is now lower. But we can take inspiration from Clinton's effort. The malaise afflicting today's global economy might be best reflected in two simple slogans: "It's the politics, stupid" and "Demand, demand, demand."

The near-global stagnation witnessed in 2014 is man-made. It is the result of politics and policies in several major economies – politics and policies that choked off demand. In the absence of demand, investment and jobs will fail to materialize. It is that simple.

Nowhere is this clearer than in the eurozone, which has officially adopted a policy of austerity – cuts in government spending that augment weaknesses in private spending. The eurozone's structure is partly to blame for impeding adjustment to the shock generated by the crisis; in the absence of a banking union, it was no surprise that money fled the hardest-hit countries, weakening their financial systems and constraining lending and investment.

In Japan, one of the three "arrows" of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's program for economic revival was launched in the wrong direction. The fall in GDP that followed the increase in the consumption tax in April provided further evidence in support of Keynesian economics – as if there was not enough already.

The US introduced the smallest dose of austerity, and it has enjoyed the best economic performance. But even in the US, there are roughly 650,000 fewer public-sector employees than there were before the crisis; normally, we would have expected some two million more. As a result, the US, too, is suffering, with growth so anemic that wages remain basically stagnant.

Much of the growth deceleration in emerging and developing countries reflects China's slowdown. China is now the world's largest economy (in terms of purchasing power parity), and it has long been the main contributor to global growth. But China's remarkable success has bred its own problems, which should be addressed sooner rather than later.

The Chinese economy's shift from quantity to quality is welcome – almost necessary. And, though President Xi Jinping's fight against corruption may cause economic growth to slow further, as paralysis grips public contracting, there is no reason for Xi to let up. On the contrary, other forces undermining trust in his government – widespread environmental problems, high and rising levels of inequality, and private-sector fraud – need to be addressed with equal vigor.

In short, the world should not expect China to shore up global aggregate demand in 2015. If anything, there will be an even bigger hole to fill.

Meanwhile, in Russia, we can expect Western sanctions to slow growth, with adverse effects on an already weakened Europe. (This is not an argument against sanctions: The world had to respond to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and Western CEOs who argue otherwise, seeking to protect their investments, have demonstrated a disturbing lack of principle.)

For the past six years, the West has believed that monetary policy can save the day. The crisis led to huge budget deficits and rising debt, and the need for deleveraging, the thinking goes, means that fiscal policy must be shunted aside.

The problem is that low interest rates will not motivate firms to invest if there is no demand for their products. Nor will low rates inspire individuals to borrow to consume if they are anxious about their future (which they should be). What monetary policy can do is create asset-price bubbles. It might even prop up the price of government bonds in Europe, thereby forestalling a sovereign-debt crisis. But it is important to be clear: the likelihood that loose monetary policies will restore global prosperity is nil.

This brings us back to politics and policies. Demand is what the world needs most. The private sector – even with the generous support of monetary authorities – will not supply it. But fiscal policy can. We have an ample choice of public investments that would yield high returns – far higher than the real cost of capital – and that would strengthen the balance sheets of the countries undertaking them.

The big problem facing the world in 2015 is not economic. We know how to escape our current malaise. The problem is our stupid politics

Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/politics-of-economic-stupidity-by-joseph-e--stiglitz-2015-01#cV4vZwqrVmmGsZ1U.99
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: periere on November 27, 2015, 01:29:15 PM
"ample choice of public investments that would yield high returns – far higher than the real cost of capital "

Wish he'd give more detail. Could an ordinary punter get in on these high return investments ?

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on November 27, 2015, 01:56:33 PM
Quote from: periere on November 27, 2015, 01:29:15 PM
"ample choice of public investments that would yield high returns – far higher than the real cost of capital "

Wish he'd give more detail. Could an ordinary punter get in on these high return investments ?
Infrastructure investment eg replacing Amtrak in the US or making Dublin less car dependent or climate proofing New York
Huge returns and you could get in via  Exchange Traded Funds, for example.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on November 27, 2015, 02:02:35 PM
A great article.

QE is just pushing on a bit of string, creating asset bubbles and storing up trouble.
The EZ is in a real mess.

Quote from: Declan on November 27, 2015, 11:38:12 AM
The Politics of Economic Stupidity

NEW YORK – In 2014, the world economy remained stuck in the same rut that it has been in since emerging from the 2008 global financial crisis. Despite seemingly strong government action in Europe and the United States, both economies suffered deep and prolonged downturns. The gap between where they are and where they most likely would have been had the crisis not erupted is huge. In Europe, it increased over the course of the year.

Developing countries fared better, but even there the news was grim. The most successful of these economies, having based their growth on exports, continued to expand in the wake of the financial crisis, even as their export markets struggled. But their performance, too, began to diminish significantly in 2014.

In 1992, Bill Clinton based his successful campaign for the US presidency on a simple slogan: "It's the economy, stupid." From today's perspective, things then do not seem so bad; the typical American household's income is now lower. But we can take inspiration from Clinton's effort. The malaise afflicting today's global economy might be best reflected in two simple slogans: "It's the politics, stupid" and "Demand, demand, demand."

The near-global stagnation witnessed in 2014 is man-made. It is the result of politics and policies in several major economies – politics and policies that choked off demand. In the absence of demand, investment and jobs will fail to materialize. It is that simple.

Nowhere is this clearer than in the eurozone, which has officially adopted a policy of austerity – cuts in government spending that augment weaknesses in private spending. The eurozone's structure is partly to blame for impeding adjustment to the shock generated by the crisis; in the absence of a banking union, it was no surprise that money fled the hardest-hit countries, weakening their financial systems and constraining lending and investment.

In Japan, one of the three "arrows" of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's program for economic revival was launched in the wrong direction. The fall in GDP that followed the increase in the consumption tax in April provided further evidence in support of Keynesian economics – as if there was not enough already.

The US introduced the smallest dose of austerity, and it has enjoyed the best economic performance. But even in the US, there are roughly 650,000 fewer public-sector employees than there were before the crisis; normally, we would have expected some two million more. As a result, the US, too, is suffering, with growth so anemic that wages remain basically stagnant.

Much of the growth deceleration in emerging and developing countries reflects China's slowdown. China is now the world's largest economy (in terms of purchasing power parity), and it has long been the main contributor to global growth. But China's remarkable success has bred its own problems, which should be addressed sooner rather than later.

The Chinese economy's shift from quantity to quality is welcome – almost necessary. And, though President Xi Jinping's fight against corruption may cause economic growth to slow further, as paralysis grips public contracting, there is no reason for Xi to let up. On the contrary, other forces undermining trust in his government – widespread environmental problems, high and rising levels of inequality, and private-sector fraud – need to be addressed with equal vigor.

In short, the world should not expect China to shore up global aggregate demand in 2015. If anything, there will be an even bigger hole to fill.

Meanwhile, in Russia, we can expect Western sanctions to slow growth, with adverse effects on an already weakened Europe. (This is not an argument against sanctions: The world had to respond to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and Western CEOs who argue otherwise, seeking to protect their investments, have demonstrated a disturbing lack of principle.)

For the past six years, the West has believed that monetary policy can save the day. The crisis led to huge budget deficits and rising debt, and the need for deleveraging, the thinking goes, means that fiscal policy must be shunted aside.

The problem is that low interest rates will not motivate firms to invest if there is no demand for their products. Nor will low rates inspire individuals to borrow to consume if they are anxious about their future (which they should be). What monetary policy can do is create asset-price bubbles. It might even prop up the price of government bonds in Europe, thereby forestalling a sovereign-debt crisis. But it is important to be clear: the likelihood that loose monetary policies will restore global prosperity is nil.

This brings us back to politics and policies. Demand is what the world needs most. The private sector – even with the generous support of monetary authorities – will not supply it. But fiscal policy can. We have an ample choice of public investments that would yield high returns – far higher than the real cost of capital – and that would strengthen the balance sheets of the countries undertaking them.

The big problem facing the world in 2015 is not economic. We know how to escape our current malaise. The problem is our stupid politics

Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/politics-of-economic-stupidity-by-joseph-e--stiglitz-2015-01#cV4vZwqrVmmGsZ1U.99
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on November 27, 2015, 03:33:32 PM
http://dailyreckoning.com/four-market-signals-that-the-crack-ups-begun/our Market Signals That the Crack-Up's Begun
New York City, New York
November 27, 2015

Easy money is always the wrong medicine for what ails the market.

The inflated and unsustainable growth that the Greenspan Fed engineered by encouraging Main Street households to stage a massive raid on their "home ATMs" has sharply reversed... and properly so.
This is no small number. Compared to the peak MEW (Mortgage Equity Withdrawal) rate of 8% of disposal income, today's negative 2% rate means there has been about a $1 trillion downward swing in household "spending."

Our Keynesian central bankers lament this as a loss of "aggregate demand." And they intend to remedy the problem by printing more money. In truth, it was always phony demand. It could not be sustained and had not been earned through production. Its disappearance simply marks the fact that households have been forced back to the old-fashioned virtue of "living within their means."

Stated differently, the supply side is back in charge after a 30-year spree of one-time debt and leverage expansion. Consumer spending now depends on income, which means production, investment and enterprise are once again the source of growth, jobs and true national wealth.
The implication is that our monetary politburo is out of business. "Monetary accommodation" is nothing more than a one-time parlor trick of central bankers.

Unfortunately, like the politburo in the Kremlin, the incumbents in the Eccles Building will not stop until they are finally chased from office by a massive uprising of the people. That is: Savers, workers and entrepreneurs of America who have been shafted by the bubble finance policies of our monetary central planners.
We're in the crack-up phase now. As such, four things are going to shape the way the economy and the markets unfold as we go forward.   

First, you are going to see increasing desperation and extreme central bank financial repression. This is because central banks have painted themselves so deep into the corner that they're lost and desperate.
Almost week by week, we have another central bank — most recently it was Sweden — lowering their money market rates into negative territory. The Swiss National Bank is already there. Denmark's Nationalbank is there. The European Central Bank is there on the deposit rate. The Bank of Japan is also there.

All of the central banks of the world now are desperately driving interest rates into negative territory. I believe that they're lost. They're in a race to the bottom whether they acknowledge it or not.

The People's Bank of China, for example, can't sit still much longer when the renminbi has appreciated something like 30% against the Japanese yen because of the massive bubble of monetary expansion that's being created by Tokyo.
Central banks are out of control and in a race to the bottom, sliding by the seat of their pants and making up incoherent theories as they go.
The second thing that's happening is increasing market disorder and volatility. In the last four months, the stock market has behaved like a drunken sailor. But it's just a bunch of robots and day traders that are mindlessly trading chart points. It has nothing to do with information or
incoming data about the real world.

Today we have the 10-year German bond trading at a yield of just 0.61%. The German economy's been reasonably strong, having been fueled by the Chinese boom. But that export boom is over. The Chinese economy is faltering. And Germany is going to have its own severe problems soon.
But clearly, 61 basis points on a 10-year bond is irrational, even in the case of Germany. This is to say nothing of the 160 or so basis points available today on the 10-year bond for Spain and Italy. (Note: A basis point is 1/100th of a percentage point.)
Both Spain and Italy are in deep, deep fiscal decline. There is no obvious way for them to dig out of the debt trap they're in. It's going to get worse over time.
There is huge risk in those bonds. Especially because there's no guarantee that the European Union will remain intact or that the euro will survive.
Why would anybody in their right mind own Italian debt earning 160 basis points a year?

Maybe those who anticipate the massive purchases that Mario Draghi at the European Central Bank has promised and the Germans have acquiesced to over the next year or two. But that only kicks the can down the road.
One of these days, central banks are going to falter. And the market is going to reset violently to prices that reflect the true risk on all this sovereign debt and the cloudy outlook that's ahead for the world market.

There is now nearly $3 trillion of sovereign debt spread over Japanese issues and the major European countries that are trading at negative yields. That is irrational. It's also completely unsustainable. And yet it's another characteristic of what I call Bubble Finance.
The third thing that's happening is that global malinvestment, fueled of course, by central banks, is now coming home to roost. It will be driving a huge deflation of commodity and industrial prices worldwide. You can see that in iron ore, which is now barely holding $48 from a peak of almost $200.

You can see this in the oil patch too. Look at the Baltic Dry Index. That's an index, created by the London-based Baltic Exchange, that tracks changes in the cost to transport raw materials by sea.   



This is a result of faltering demand for shipments and overbuilding of bulk carrier capacity as a result of this central bank-driven boom that we've had in the last 10 to 20 years. And it is going to be ripping through the financial system and the global economy in ways that we've never before experienced.
It will become extremely hard to predict what all the ramifications and cascading effects will be. But the degree of overinvestment and excess capacity in everything from iron ore mines... to dry bulk carriers... aluminum plants... steel mills... and so on is something we have never seen before.
Fourth, demand has run smack up against peak debt.
There was a tremendous study that came out in February from the McKinsey Global Institute. It did an excellent job of trying to calculate, track and total up the amount of global credit outstanding, public and private.
According to the report, we're now at the $200 trillion threshold. That's up from only about $140 trillion at the time of the 2008 financial crisis. So we've had a roughly $60 trillion expansion worldwide of debt since 2008. Over that same time, global GDP only increased by about $15 trillion (roughly speaking, from $55 trillion to $70 trillion).
[/b]Owing to central bank money printing and all of this unprecedented monetary stimulus, we've added about $60 trillion of new debt. And we've gotten somewhere around $15 trillion of extra output in return. That's not even one-third of the amount of debt.
The numbers from China are even more startling. In the year 2000, China had $2 trillion of credit outstanding. In 2008, Chinese debt was $7 trillion. It now has an unbelievable $28 trillion of credit outstanding.
And at the time of the 2008 crisis, China had allegedly — if you believe the numbers, which no one really should — $5 trillion of annual economic output. It's now $10 trillion. So officially it's doubled its GDP.
But China's debt is up more than $20 trillion while its GDP is up just $5 trillion.
These are extreme unsustainable deformations. They just scream out, "Danger ahead. Mayhem has happened." As all of this unwinds and becomes resolved it is not going to be pretty.
When you see that kind of minimal yield from the vast amount of new debt, it should tell you that the boom is over... and that the crack-up is under way.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: periere on November 27, 2015, 10:51:33 PM
Quote from: seafoid on November 27, 2015, 01:56:33 PM
Quote from: periere on November 27, 2015, 01:29:15 PM
"ample choice of public investments that would yield high returns – far higher than the real cost of capital "

Wish he'd give more detail. Could an ordinary punter get in on these high return investments ?
Infrastructure investment eg replacing Amtrak in the US or making Dublin less car dependent or climate proofing New York
Huge returns and you could get in via  Exchange Traded Funds, for example.

I'm suspicious about claims of "huge returns". I've heard that phrase before. To put it in perspective I was involved in Fiber roll out back in 2001 when the dot com boom burst.

From the public good point of view I am all for public investment if it is tied to measurable productivity. However, public investment can also be seen as an artificial actor in the market. When I see investments that are predicated, to some degree, on govt investment I smell pork. I see the invisible , but dead,  hand of lobbyists everywhere in that scenario.

The problem with with govt increasing taxes or borrowing more to invest is that they never know when to stop. Same as banks giving out loans or investors taking on debt. How do you know when to call stop ? Once everything turns around what minister is going to be brave enough to say "right, things are going well now, we should back off the spending/investment".
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: armaghniac on November 27, 2015, 11:02:17 PM
Quote from: periere on November 27, 2015, 10:51:33 PM
The problem with with govt increasing taxes or borrowing more to invest is that they never know when to stop. Same as banks giving out loans or investors taking on debt. How do you know when to call stop ? Once everything turns around what minister is going to be brave enough to say "right, things are going well now, we should back off the spending/investment".

All the same if they build a road or a metro there is something to show for the spending and people get to use it for a long time. In the US they built things like the Hoover Dam or Golden Gate bridge in the 1930s and great use has been had of these things. You can have too much, but Ireland has erred on the other side, i.e. false economy.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: periere on November 27, 2015, 11:18:18 PM
roads are great but the financial debt, or political debt,  hangs around like a bad smell. When I was a young lad going to college I remember seeing all those signs "funded by the European Union" . I used to think they were great lads giving us all these great roads for nothing.

There is no such thing as a free lunch.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on November 28, 2015, 08:17:09 PM
Quote from: periere on November 27, 2015, 11:18:18 PM
roads are great but the financial debt, or political debt,  hangs around like a bad smell. When I was a young lad going to college I remember seeing all those signs "funded by the European Union" . I used to think they were great lads giving us all these great roads for nothing.

There is no such thing as a free lunch.
Check this out from 1980 . Rates have consistently decreased in  35 years
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FEDFUNDS

Check this out

http://dailybail.com/home/chart-us-debt-to-gdp-1940-2015.html

Total US debt since 1980 has NEVER fallen.
Interest rates have consistently fallen

Why?


Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: thejuice on February 18, 2016, 10:05:11 AM
Deutsche bank in trouble?

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/if-deutsche-bank-collapses-its-taking-the-euro-with-it/
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Declan on February 18, 2016, 11:30:01 AM
Wonder how this will go today?

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/supreme-court-to-hear-joan-collins-promissory-note-appeal-1.2538357 (http://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/supreme-court-to-hear-joan-collins-promissory-note-appeal-1.2538357)

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Rossfan on February 18, 2016, 05:02:08 PM
More taxpayers' money for the legal parasites.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on February 18, 2016, 06:10:50 PM
Euro zone growth for 2015 was 0.7%. This means Q E does not work. Another crisis is inevitable. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Declan on February 19, 2016, 10:20:47 AM
It's amazing to watch this and see how ineffective politicians are:
https://twitter.com/namawinelake/status/700623117207543808 (https://twitter.com/namawinelake/status/700623117207543808)

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: macdanger2 on February 19, 2016, 12:53:49 PM
Watched the Big Short last night, depressing stuff
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on February 24, 2016, 11:12:01 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/0224/770421-shadow-banking/ (http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/0224/770421-shadow-banking/)

Ireland has the highest level of shadow banking assets in the world as a percentage of GDP, according to figures from the Financial Stability Board, a group of global regulators.

Shadow banking is lending by entities outside the traditional banking industry.

A report from Bloomberg said that Ireland ranks with China as the biggest centre for non-bank finance after the US and UK, with €2.3 trillion of assets.

The country's shadow banking system - including hedge funds, mutual funds and insurers - is over 10 times the size of the Irish economy, the news agency adds.

While most of the network falls under the remit of the authorities in Ireland or elsewhere, unregulated vehicles - including special purpose vehicles - account for about €0.5 trillion, the board's survey found.

Bloomberg said that Irish authorities have begun collecting data on SPVs and joined last year in the annual survey of shadow banking by the Financial Stability Board.

The report examined 26 jurisdictions, though some countries with large shadow-finance operations - such as Luxembourg - did not take part.

Shadow-banking assets have swelled since the financial crisis - and not just in Ireland.

Non-bank firms internationally have extended credit of up to $36 trillion by the end of 2014, after climbing by about $1.3 trillion a year since 2011, the FSB said.

Up until late last year, Irish SPVs had no obligation to alert the Central Bank to their presence in Dublin or to explain their purpose, except where their activities touched on regulated areas, Bloomberg said.

The Central Bank said in a report last July that officials faced a challenge in monitoring SPVs because of the "complexity and opaqueness of their transactions".

Today's report from the FSB show that the biggest borrowers through these vehicles are in the US, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Russia and the Netherlands.

Finance Minister Michael Noonan recently told that Dáil that there were about 2,100 companies in Ireland who have set up under the legislation that governs SPVs.

Mr Noonan said that even the tax authorities did not know how many assets these firms held.

The ECB also said that "risks may be building up in part of the shadow banking sector for which a statistical breakdown is not readily available".
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on March 10, 2016, 12:59:23 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/0310/773861-ecb-rates-meeting/ (http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/0310/773861-ecb-rates-meeting/)

The European Central Bank has cut its main interest rate from 0.05% to 0% - the first cut since September 2014.

The bank has also cut its deposit rate deeper into negative territory, cutting to to -0.4% from -0.3%.

The ECB also said that it would increase its bond buying programme from €60 billion a month to €80 billion a month .
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on March 10, 2016, 03:56:41 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 10, 2016, 12:59:23 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/0310/773861-ecb-rates-meeting/ (http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/0310/773861-ecb-rates-meeting/)

The European Central Bank has cut its main interest rate from 0.05% to 0% - the first cut since September 2014.

The bank has also cut its deposit rate deeper into negative territory, cutting to to -0.4% from -0.3%.

The ECB also said that it would increase its bond buying programme from €60 billion a month to €80 billion a month .

It is a waste of time. They should give everyone in the EZ a cheque if they want to generate inflation
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on March 10, 2016, 04:44:33 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 10, 2016, 03:56:41 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 10, 2016, 12:59:23 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/0310/773861-ecb-rates-meeting/ (http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/0310/773861-ecb-rates-meeting/)

The European Central Bank has cut its main interest rate from 0.05% to 0% - the first cut since September 2014.

The bank has also cut its deposit rate deeper into negative territory, cutting to to -0.4% from -0.3%.

The ECB also said that it would increase its bond buying programme from €60 billion a month to €80 billion a month .

It is a waste of time. They should give everyone in the EZ a cheque if they want to generate inflation

That is what they should have done with the various bailouts. The money would have gone to the banks anyway and the debt would have been reduced. Instead all 'assistance' was merely more debt in a system already crippled by debt.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: armaghniac on March 10, 2016, 06:32:20 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 10, 2016, 04:44:33 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 10, 2016, 03:56:41 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 10, 2016, 12:59:23 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/0310/773861-ecb-rates-meeting/ (http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/0310/773861-ecb-rates-meeting/)

The European Central Bank has cut its main interest rate from 0.05% to 0% - the first cut since September 2014.

The bank has also cut its deposit rate deeper into negative territory, cutting to to -0.4% from -0.3%.

The ECB also said that it would increase its bond buying programme from €60 billion a month to €80 billion a month .

It is a waste of time. They should give everyone in the EZ a cheque if they want to generate inflation

That is what they should have done with the various bailouts. The money would have gone to the banks anyway and the debt would have been reduced. Instead all 'assistance' was merely more debt in a system already crippled by debt.

My idea, which I would have provided for no fee, was to give everyone a €1000 voucher for the hols. Even left to their own devices the citizens would largely have spent these in Greece,  Cyprus, Portugal etc which is where it was needed.

However, Angela Merkel has a plan to give money to lots of Syrians to spend. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on March 10, 2016, 08:16:55 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 10, 2016, 04:44:33 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 10, 2016, 03:56:41 PM
Quote from: muppet on March 10, 2016, 12:59:23 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/0310/773861-ecb-rates-meeting/ (http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/0310/773861-ecb-rates-meeting/)

The European Central Bank has cut its main interest rate from 0.05% to 0% - the first cut since September 2014.

The bank has also cut its deposit rate deeper into negative territory, cutting to to -0.4% from -0.3%.

The ECB also said that it would increase its bond buying programme from €60 billion a month to €80 billion a month .

It is a waste of time. They should give everyone in the EZ a cheque if they want to generate inflation

That is what they should have done with the various bailouts. The money would have gone to the banks anyway and the debt would have been reduced. Instead all 'assistance' was merely more debt in a system already crippled by debt.
This guy was saying the same thing in 2009. We could have had a safe banking system for a fraction of the money spent on QE. And the EZ still does not have bank resolution mechanisms

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zOZnRUZKf48

It is a financialised plutocracy and it is guaranteed to crash again
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: armaghniac on March 10, 2016, 08:35:59 PM
All the same the oul money is beginning to circulate in Ireland GDP growth 7.8% in 2015,or an annualised 10% in the last quarter.
http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/0310/773899-cso-economy/
Title: Re: The Big Bailout (A lot dug, more to dig out.)
Post by: muppet on March 24, 2016, 12:18:42 AM
Quote from: muppet on November 09, 2010, 11:24:25 PM
Finished The Big Short - Michael Lewis (http://www.amazon.com/Big-Short-Inside-Doomsday-Machine/dp/0393072231/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1289344544&sr=8-1)

Subpime, Asset Backed Securities, Credit Default Swaps, Collateral Debt Obligations all explained for the lay-man.

All about the collapse of the financial system starting with its roots in subprime mortgages.

Starts off with a few wise people 'shorting' the subprime sector (using newly created Mortgage bond CDSs). Then more and more start shorting until the impending doom is so obvious even Goldman Sachs and the rest try dumping their long positions. AIG went bankrupt because they insured most of these CDSs up to 2006 but even they were trying to unravel their positions in late 2007.

Our inspired Government took the ultimate long position as late as september 2008.  ::)

I know this isn't the movie thread and others have recommended this, but, the movie - The Big Short - is out and is very, very good. Really well done.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on March 24, 2016, 12:26:54 AM
from Zerohedge

the "market" is so manipulated now, it can't withstand even a modest 10% correction before global, coordinated central bank intervention is unleashed as has been the case over the past month
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on March 24, 2016, 12:48:06 AM
Quote from: seafoid on March 24, 2016, 12:26:54 AM
from Zerohedge

the "market" is so manipulated now, it can't withstand even a modest 10% correction before global, coordinated central bank intervention is unleashed as has been the case over the past month

Which means it isn't a real market. A bit like Irish property.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on March 24, 2016, 01:08:16 AM
Quote from: muppet on March 24, 2016, 12:48:06 AM
Quote from: seafoid on March 24, 2016, 12:26:54 AM
from Zerohedge

the "market" is so manipulated now, it can't withstand even a modest 10% correction before global, coordinated central bank intervention is unleashed as has been the case over the past month

Which means it isn't a real market. A bit like Irish property.
which means a crash is guaranteed
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: heganboy on March 24, 2016, 02:55:14 AM
Quote from: seafoid on March 24, 2016, 01:08:16 AM

which means a crash is guaranteed

a crash is always guaranteed, the question is when...
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on March 24, 2016, 07:07:17 AM
Quote from: heganboy on March 24, 2016, 02:55:14 AM
Quote from: seafoid on March 24, 2016, 01:08:16 AM

which means a crash is guaranteed

a crash is always guaranteed, the question is when...
No US bank collapsed during the Keynesian era. Neoliberalism is inherently unstable.  Any system that shunts money relentlessly to the top is.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on March 24, 2016, 12:39:24 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 24, 2016, 07:07:17 AM
Quote from: heganboy on March 24, 2016, 02:55:14 AM
Quote from: seafoid on March 24, 2016, 01:08:16 AM

which means a crash is guaranteed

a crash is always guaranteed, the question is when...
No US bank collapsed during the Keynesian era. Neoliberalism is inherently unstable.  Any system that shunts money relentlessly to the top is.

The problem is that having created the mess, they then turned to socialist solutions giving the people the worst of both worlds. The people who created the mess would have suffered appropriately had they not been bailed out. Instead the middle/working classes were called on to pay for everything.

They problem was more than Neo-Liberalism, it was also the reaction to crisis.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on March 25, 2016, 09:34:21 AM
Quote from: muppet on March 24, 2016, 12:39:24 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 24, 2016, 07:07:17 AM
Quote from: heganboy on March 24, 2016, 02:55:14 AM
Quote from: seafoid on March 24, 2016, 01:08:16 AM

which means a crash is guaranteed

a crash is always guaranteed, the question is when...
No US bank collapsed during the Keynesian era. Neoliberalism is inherently unstable.  Any system that shunts money relentlessly to the top is.

The problem is that having created the mess, they then turned to socialist solutions giving the people the worst of both worlds. The people who created the mess would have suffered appropriately had they not been bailed out. Instead the middle/working classes were called on to pay for everything.

They problem was more than Neo-Liberalism, it was also the reaction to crisis.
the crap is all over the system and there is no way to hedge counterparty risk. In a debt crisis the only thing to do is write the stuff down early and get it done with. The EZ also has a political dimension.  No government will admit its debt is riskier than Germany's. On top of all that neoliberalism is Incoherent. 
I bought shares 10 years ago . The price now is the same as it was in 2006.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: armaghniac on April 01, 2016, 12:49:48 AM
Anyone fancy a century bond?
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/ireland-sells-first-century-bond-at-rate-of-just-235pc-34585422.html

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on April 01, 2016, 02:13:01 PM
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-31/worst-case-scenario-73-down-here
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on April 08, 2016, 02:03:42 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cfg7kO0WwAEF83B.jpg)

Interesting look at what percentage of each country's bond the ECB are likely to hold next year after the latest QE. Why will Germany be much higher than us?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on April 08, 2016, 03:28:49 PM
Quote from: muppet on April 08, 2016, 02:03:42 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cfg7kO0WwAEF83B.jpg)

Interesting look at what percentage of each country's bond the ECB are likely to hold next year after the latest QE. Why will Germany be much higher than us?
The ECB probably focused on banks in trouble who would be more likely to hold German Bonds which are deemed more safe..
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on April 08, 2016, 06:37:02 PM
Eurozone inflation for February was minus 0.1%. The markets are so fucked.
Title: Helicopter money on the way?
Post by: muppet on April 18, 2016, 12:29:05 AM
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/apr/17/central-bank-global-economy-helicopter-money?CMP=share_btn_tw (http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/apr/17/central-bank-global-economy-helicopter-money?CMP=share_btn_tw)

.....The plan has not worked. There has been little impact on interest rates, banks have not increased their lending and the yen has risen on the foreign exchanges - the opposite of what was planned - because investors fear that the Bank of Japan is fast running out of ammunition. They have a point.

Central banks, of course, swear blind that they are fully in control and that there is nothing to worry about. Perhaps not, but something doesn't smell right. The fact that economists at Deutsche Bank published a helpful cut-out-and-keep guide to helicopter money last week is a straw in the wind.

As the Deutsche research makes clear, the most basic variant of helicopter money involves a central bank creating money so that it can be handed to the finance ministry to spend on tax cuts or higher public spending. There are two differences with QE. The cash goes directly to firms and individuals rather than being channeled through banks, and there is no intention of the central bank ever getting it back.

It will take some time to get the helicopters into the air. Central banks can muddle through for the rest of this year, beefing up their QE programmes and driving interest rates deeper into negative territory. The underlying softness of the global economy, however, means that it is quite easy to envisage a downturn in 2017, the 10th anniversary of the start of the financial crisis.

In those circumstances, the unconventional would quickly become conventional, as it did after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. The only question would be which central bank would move first. Hardline resistance from Germany means it certainly would not be the ECB, although the case for helicopter money in the eurozone is strong.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on April 18, 2016, 12:44:45 AM
Neil Postman had 6  questions about new technology

What is the problem to which this technology is a solution?
Whose problem is it?
What new problems might be created by solving the original problem?
Which people and what institutions will be most seriously harmed by this new technology?
What changes in language are being forced by these new technologies?
What sort of people and institutions gain special economic and political power from this new technology?


The big issue is how much wealth is controlled by the ultra rich. Helicopter money will not address it






Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on April 27, 2016, 02:41:04 PM
The EU is getting ready for the annual kicking the Greek can down the road....

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/0427/784583-greece-bailout/ (http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/0427/784583-greece-bailout/)

(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/Pt4mwy9OBNA/hqdefault.jpg)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on April 27, 2016, 02:51:24 PM
The US is unable to generate inflation

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/13a15cdc-0af2-11e6-9456-444ab5211a2f.html

"A subdued start to 2016 for the US economy coupled with depressed inflation expectations will probably prompt the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged this week, as chair Janet Yellen insists on an ultra-cautious approach to normalising monetary policy."
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on May 10, 2016, 12:48:30 PM
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/09/the-choice-for-europe-rescue-greece-or-create-a-failed-state
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on May 10, 2016, 01:06:56 PM
Quote from: seafoid on May 10, 2016, 12:48:30 PM
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/09/the-choice-for-europe-rescue-greece-or-create-a-failed-state

Everyone knows this, even the politicians. But they will keep putting it off, as there are always more important issues in local politics and there is no real leverage from anywhere to force them to sort it out. The can will either keeping getting kicked down the road or it will explode, but it won't get fixed.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on May 10, 2016, 02:41:41 PM
Quote from: muppet on May 10, 2016, 01:06:56 PM
Quote from: seafoid on May 10, 2016, 12:48:30 PM
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/09/the-choice-for-europe-rescue-greece-or-create-a-failed-state

Everyone knows this, even the politicians. But they will keep putting it off, as there are always more important issues in local politics and there is no real leverage from anywhere to force them to sort it out. The can will either keeping getting kicked down the road or it will explode, but it won't get fixed.
I think debt writeoffs are coming, Muppet.
Hypo alpe is a test case .. and they speak German ....
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on May 10, 2016, 03:14:13 PM
Quote from: seafoid on May 10, 2016, 02:41:41 PM
Quote from: muppet on May 10, 2016, 01:06:56 PM
Quote from: seafoid on May 10, 2016, 12:48:30 PM
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/09/the-choice-for-europe-rescue-greece-or-create-a-failed-state

Everyone knows this, even the politicians. But they will keep putting it off, as there are always more important issues in local politics and there is no real leverage from anywhere to force them to sort it out. The can will either keeping getting kicked down the road or it will explode, but it won't get fixed.
I think debt writeoffs are coming, Muppet.
Hypo alpe is a test case .. and they speak German ....

Maybe, but only after the crisis leaves no there possibility. Can kicking is still the default (sorry) reaction.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on May 10, 2016, 06:45:52 PM
Quote from: muppet on May 10, 2016, 03:14:13 PM
Quote from: seafoid on May 10, 2016, 02:41:41 PM
Quote from: muppet on May 10, 2016, 01:06:56 PM
Quote from: seafoid on May 10, 2016, 12:48:30 PM
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/09/the-choice-for-europe-rescue-greece-or-create-a-failed-state

Everyone knows this, even the politicians. But they will keep putting it off, as there are always more important issues in local politics and there is no real leverage from anywhere to force them to sort it out. The can will either keeping getting kicked down the road or it will explode, but it won't get fixed.
I think debt writeoffs are coming, Muppet.
Hypo alpe is a test case .. and they speak German ....

Maybe, but only after the crisis leaves no there possibility. Can kicking is still the default (sorry) reaction.
Bet you never through the discussion would be going on 8 years later when you started
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on May 10, 2016, 07:14:07 PM
Quote from: seafoid on May 10, 2016, 06:45:52 PM
Quote from: muppet on May 10, 2016, 03:14:13 PM
Quote from: seafoid on May 10, 2016, 02:41:41 PM
Quote from: muppet on May 10, 2016, 01:06:56 PM
Quote from: seafoid on May 10, 2016, 12:48:30 PM
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/09/the-choice-for-europe-rescue-greece-or-create-a-failed-state

Everyone knows this, even the politicians. But they will keep putting it off, as there are always more important issues in local politics and there is no real leverage from anywhere to force them to sort it out. The can will either keeping getting kicked down the road or it will explode, but it won't get fixed.
I think debt writeoffs are coming, Muppet.
Hypo alpe is a test case .. and they speak German ....

Maybe, but only after the crisis leaves no there possibility. Can kicking is still the default (sorry) reaction.
Bet you never through the discussion would be going on 8 years later when you started

Good question.

I must go back and read what we were thinking back then.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on May 10, 2016, 10:41:44 PM
The German attitude towards debt and morality is insane. The neoliberal model that they have in place and upon which their Eurozone is based has drowned Europe in unpayable debt that has driven interest rates to zero and below. Pandering to debt owners *as in shafting us with Anglo and forcing depositors to pay for the Cypriot banks) has driven the Eurozone into a deflationary hole from which it cannot escape under current policy. Schaueble and co should get a grip.

Italy will blow up next. 

Thomas Palley from 2010 talking about the Yanks but just as relevant to the ECB

http://beforeitsnews.com/economy/2010/12/tom-palley-on-why-obama-is-failing-294076.html

"Only after 2 years in office, when the economy is not recovering from the recession as his advisors told him it would, and the remedies that he throws at it (on their advice) turn out to be more damp squibs that the weapons of mass economic reconstruction he was told they would be, must it slowly be dawning on him that may don't understand the economy.
He's learning the hard way the lesson I and many other critical economists acquired as we studied for our economics degrees–mostly by reacting incredulously to weird propositions that our Professors would use to derive their models–that there is something rotten in the state of economic thinking.
Fortunately, I had time to undertake scholarly research to confirm that initial guttural reaction. Yes, what simply felt like crap to me rather than wisdom, really was crap: the weird propositions that my Professors would put forward were kludges to hide fundamental flaws in the underlying theory. In full view in the academic literature of economics, paper after paper proved that the theory did not hold together."

Now it's 6 years on. the Republican party is in full meltdown mode . Poland, turkey and Hungary have far right governments. The UK is tearing itself apart over Brexit. there is no growth anywhere. Inflation is a fantasy. The US can only produce 160,000 jobs in one month.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Farrandeelin on May 10, 2016, 11:00:12 PM
So when will this come to a head? Just wondering.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on May 10, 2016, 11:16:05 PM
Quote from: Farrandeelin on May 10, 2016, 11:00:12 PM
So when will this come to a head? Just wondering.

Could happen quickly if this guys gets in:

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/05/09/politics/donald-trump-national-debt-strategy/ (http://edition.cnn.com/2016/05/09/politics/donald-trump-national-debt-strategy/)

He thinks they don't have to default because they can just 'keep printing money'. He also thinks of interest rates go up, he will save money by buying back bonds (older debt). As I understand the US rolls over an incredible amount of its debt yearly, so if interest rates go up, the cost of servicing the debt rises with it.

Can anyone point out the flaw(s) in my thinking please?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on May 10, 2016, 11:21:06 PM
Quote from: muppet on May 10, 2016, 11:16:05 PM
Quote from: Farrandeelin on May 10, 2016, 11:00:12 PM
So when will this come to a head? Just wondering.

Could happen quickly if this guys gets in:

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/05/09/politics/donald-trump-national-debt-strategy/ (http://edition.cnn.com/2016/05/09/politics/donald-trump-national-debt-strategy/)

He thinks they don't have to default because they can just 'keep printing money'. He also thinks of interest rates go up, he will save money by buying back bonds (older debt). As I understand the US rolls over an incredible amount of its debt yearly, so if interest rates go up, the cost of servicing the debt rises with it.

Can anyone point out the flaw(s) in my thinking please?
If rates go up the price of debt falls. A lot of debt is priced above issue price now cos rates are so low. If rates go up price comes down closer to issue price. So he can buy more of it.  Cost of coupons increases but price decreases.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on May 10, 2016, 11:30:47 PM
Quote from: seafoid on May 10, 2016, 11:21:06 PM
Quote from: muppet on May 10, 2016, 11:16:05 PM
Quote from: Farrandeelin on May 10, 2016, 11:00:12 PM
So when will this come to a head? Just wondering.

Could happen quickly if this guys gets in:

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/05/09/politics/donald-trump-national-debt-strategy/ (http://edition.cnn.com/2016/05/09/politics/donald-trump-national-debt-strategy/)

He thinks they don't have to default because they can just 'keep printing money'. He also thinks of interest rates go up, he will save money by buying back bonds (older debt). As I understand the US rolls over an incredible amount of its debt yearly, so if interest rates go up, the cost of servicing the debt rises with it.

Can anyone point out the flaw(s) in my thinking please?
If rates go up the price of debt falls. A lot of debt is priced above issue price now cos rates are so low. If rates go up price comes down closer to issue price. So he can buy more of it.  Cost of coupons increases but price decreases.

Yes, but he needs to issue more debt (at the new higher rates) to buy the old bonds.

Here is the average maturity of US debt:

(https://www.treasury.gov/connect/blog/PublishingImages/longer-term-treasury.JPG)

I understand that the old bonds can be bought back cheaper, but surely the cost of issuing the new debt, which he must continue to do, rises with the rising interest rates?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on May 11, 2016, 01:55:17 PM
Say 20 year stuff priced originally at 5% is now trading at 130 cos rates are so low.
Trump wants to buy 650 bn.of it.
if he can get interest back to 4.5% he can buy it for 100 or a total of 500bn. He can issue 500bn in new debt at 100 for a price of 500bn to buy it.
He saves 130 bn.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on May 11, 2016, 02:11:26 PM
Quote from: seafoid on May 11, 2016, 01:55:17 PM
Say 20 year stuff priced originally at 5% is now trading at 130 cos rates are so low.
Trump wants to buy 650 bn.of it.
if he can get interest back to 4.5% he can buy it for 100 or a total of 500bn. He can issue 500bn in new debt at 100 for a price of 500bn to buy it.
He saves 130 bn.

If I bought Government backed debt for 100 @ 5%, why would I sell it back at 100 when interest rates are only 4.5%? Added to that, if the US, led by a vocal Trump, announces that it is buying back bonds, wouldn't that drive the price up anyway?

And while he can issue new debt at 100, he still has to issue it at 4.5%. I can see where a straight swap of 5% debt for 4.5% debt would save money, but why would the market go along with it?

But aside from that, if Trump drives interest rates up to 4.5% in the next 4 years, how will that work out for us?

Regardless though, my comments are the guesswork of a complete amateur. I really don't have a clue how bonds work and would love if someone could really nail it for me.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Rossfan on May 11, 2016, 02:53:23 PM
Quote from: muppet on May 11, 2016, 02:11:26 PM
ur. I really don't have a clue how bonds work and would love if someone could really nail it for me.

Ask Micky Martin.
Anyone that's so full of cuteness that he can be simultaneously leader of the opposition and in charge of the Government at the same time would have no trouble with them bond yokes.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on May 11, 2016, 03:48:02 PM
Quote from: muppet on May 11, 2016, 02:11:26 PM
Quote from: seafoid on May 11, 2016, 01:55:17 PM
Say 20 year stuff priced originally at 5% is now trading at 130 cos rates are so low.
Trump wants to buy 650 bn.of it.
if he can get interest back to 4.5% he can buy it for 100 or a total of 500bn. He can issue 500bn in new debt at 100 for a price of 500bn to buy it.
He saves 130 bn.

If I bought Government backed debt for 100 @ 5%, why would I sell it back at 100 when interest rates are only 4.5%? Added to that, if the US, led by a vocal Trump, announces that it is buying back bonds, wouldn't that drive the price up anyway?

And while he can issue new debt at 100, he still has to issue it at 4.5%. I can see where a straight swap of 5% debt for 4.5% debt would save money, but why would the market go along with it?

But aside from that, if Trump drives interest rates up to 4.5% in the next 4 years, how will that work out for us?

Regardless though, my comments are the guesswork of a complete amateur. I really don't have a clue how bonds work and would love if someone could really nail it for me.
If inflation is generated bond prices fall. Prices move inverse to interest rate movements . Rates go down, bonds go up. Rates go up bonds go down.
higher rates are better for pensions cos they make pensions affordable

Lower rates are better for 1% ers cos they drive up asset values
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on May 11, 2016, 05:25:34 PM
Quote from: seafoid on May 11, 2016, 03:48:02 PM
Quote from: muppet on May 11, 2016, 02:11:26 PM
Quote from: seafoid on May 11, 2016, 01:55:17 PM
Say 20 year stuff priced originally at 5% is now trading at 130 cos rates are so low.
Trump wants to buy 650 bn.of it.
if he can get interest back to 4.5% he can buy it for 100 or a total of 500bn. He can issue 500bn in new debt at 100 for a price of 500bn to buy it.
He saves 130 bn.

If I bought Government backed debt for 100 @ 5%, why would I sell it back at 100 when interest rates are only 4.5%? Added to that, if the US, led by a vocal Trump, announces that it is buying back bonds, wouldn't that drive the price up anyway?

And while he can issue new debt at 100, he still has to issue it at 4.5%. I can see where a straight swap of 5% debt for 4.5% debt would save money, but why would the market go along with it?

But aside from that, if Trump drives interest rates up to 4.5% in the next 4 years, how will that work out for us?

Regardless though, my comments are the guesswork of a complete amateur. I really don't have a clue how bonds work and would love if someone could really nail it for me.
If inflation is generated bond prices fall. Prices move inverse to interest rate movements . Rates go down, bonds go up. Rates go up bonds go down.
higher rates are better for pensions cos they make pensions affordable

Lower rates are better for 1% ers cos they drive up asset values

That's fine, but Trump appears to be talking about raising interest rates. If he does that to reduce the debt, surely there will be lots of other consequences? For example, there will be very little inflation and thus growth?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: armaghniac on May 11, 2016, 05:49:14 PM
Quote from: muppet on May 11, 2016, 02:11:26 PM
Quote from: seafoid on May 11, 2016, 01:55:17 PM
Say 20 year stuff priced originally at 5% is now trading at 130 cos rates are so low.
Trump wants to buy 650 bn.of it.
if he can get interest back to 4.5% he can buy it for 100 or a total of 500bn. He can issue 500bn in new debt at 100 for a price of 500bn to buy it.
He saves 130 bn.

If I bought Government backed debt for 100 @ 5%, why would I sell it back at 100 when interest rates are only 4.5%? Added to that, if the US, led by a vocal Trump, announces that it is buying back bonds, wouldn't that drive the price up anyway?

And while he can issue new debt at 100, he still has to issue it at 4.5%. I can see where a straight swap of 5% debt for 4.5% debt would save money, but why would the market go along with it?

But aside from that, if Trump drives interest rates up to 4.5% in the next 4 years, how will that work out for us?

Regardless though, my comments are the guesswork of a complete amateur. I really don't have a clue how bonds work and would love if someone could really nail it for me.

Bonds on the market have a redemption yield, if interest rates are currently low then a 5% bond will be priced well above par, making it's effective return over its remaining life about what interest rates currently are.

Say a bond pays 5% is in due in 2026 then it might be now 130% of its redemption value. The price would decline 3% a year, but you get 5% so your "real" interest rate is 2%.

Say this replaced with a 2% bond, at par. People holding the bond might well go for the change as it removes the capital loss on the bond.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on May 11, 2016, 06:14:19 PM
There is no growth anyway. Bit of inflation would generate pay rises for the 99% and generate economic growth. Losers would be the 1%. They do nothing with their money at the moment.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on May 11, 2016, 06:56:41 PM
Quote from: seafoid on May 11, 2016, 06:14:19 PM
There is no growth anyway. Bit of inflation would generate pay rises for the 99% and generate economic growth. Losers would be the 1%. They do nothing with their money at the moment.

The winners would be the 1% if interest rates rise. They are the ones with the money to buy bonds.

Can you explain how raising interest rates would increase inflation?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on May 11, 2016, 07:20:31 PM
Quote from: muppet on May 11, 2016, 06:56:41 PM
Quote from: seafoid on May 11, 2016, 06:14:19 PM
There is no growth anyway. Bit of inflation would generate pay rises for the 99% and generate economic growth. Losers would be the 1%. They do nothing with their money at the moment.

The winners would be the 1% if interest rates rise. They are the ones with the money to buy bonds.

Can you explain how raising interest rates would increase inflation?
inflation would be the way to raise ratesbut debt issuance would have to stop cos debt is driving rates down.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on May 11, 2016, 08:22:20 PM
Quote from: seafoid on May 11, 2016, 07:20:31 PM
Quote from: muppet on May 11, 2016, 06:56:41 PM
Quote from: seafoid on May 11, 2016, 06:14:19 PM
There is no growth anyway. Bit of inflation would generate pay rises for the 99% and generate economic growth. Losers would be the 1%. They do nothing with their money at the moment.

The winners would be the 1% if interest rates rise. They are the ones with the money to buy bonds.

Can you explain how raising interest rates would increase inflation?
inflation would be the way to raise ratesbut debt issuance would have to stop cos debt is driving rates down.

You are not making sense to me.

How can Trump raise interest rates without decreasing inflation and without further debt issuance, which as you say drives the rates he is trying to raise, down?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on May 12, 2016, 07:50:37 AM
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7fcb38e8-15f5-11e6-9d98-00386a18e39d.html



May 10, 2016 6:40 pm


Germany is the eurozone's biggest problem

Martin WolfMartin Wolf


The monetary union will fail if it is run for the benefit of creditors alone



Why is conventional German thinking on macroeconomics so peculiar? And does it matter?

The answer to the second question is that it matters a great deal. A part of the answer to the first is that Germany is a creditor. The financial crisis has given it a dominant voice in eurozone affairs. This is a matter of might, not right. Creditors' interests are important. But they are partial, not general, interests.

Recent complaints have focused on the European Central Bank's monetary policies, especially negative interest rates and quantitative easing. Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany's finance minister, even claimed that the ECB bore half of the responsibility for the rise of the Alternative for Germany, an anti-euro party. This is an extraordinary attack.

Criticism of ECB policies is wide-ranging: they make it unnecessary for recalcitrant members to reform; they have failed to reduce indebtedness; they undermine the solvency of insurance companies, pension funds and savings banks; they have barely kept inflation above zero; and they foment anger with the European project. In brief, ECB policy has become a big threat to stability.

All this accords with a conventional German view. As Peter Bofinger, an heretical member of Germany's council of economic experts argues, the tradition goes back to Walter Eucken, the influential father of postwar ordoliberalism. In this approach, ideal macro­economics has three elements: a balanced budget at (almost) all times; price stability (with an asymmetric preference for deflation); and price flexibility.

This is a reasonable approach for a small, open economy. It is workable for a larger country, such as Germany, with highly competitive tradeable industries. But it cannot be generalised to a continental economy, such as the eurozone. What works for Germany cannot work for an economy three times as large and far more closed to external trade.

Note that in the last quarter of 2015, real demand in the eurozone was 2 per cent lower than in the first quarter of 2008, while US demand was 10 per cent higher. This severe weakness in demand is missing from most of the German complaints. The ECB is rightly trying to prevent a spiral into deflation in an economy suffering from chronically weak demand. As Mario Draghi, ECB president, insists, the low interest rates set by the bank are not the problem. They are instead "the symptom" of insufficient investment demand.


The history of the German economy since its labour market reforms of the early 2000s demonstrates that "structural reform" is most unlikely to solve this problem. The most important macroeconomic fact about the country is that it is unable to absorb almost a third of its domestic savings at home, despite ultra-low interest rates. In 2000, before the reforms — which cut labour costs and workers' incomes — German corporations invested substantially more than their retained earnings. The opposite is now true. With households in surplus and the government in balance, a vast external surplus has duly emerged. (See charts.)

Why should others be able to make productive use of savings Germans cannot apparently use? Why should structural reforms elsewhere, as advocated by Germany, generate the investment surge lacking at home? Why, not least, should one expect indebtedness to have fallen when demand and overall growth is so weak in the eurozone as a whole?

Martin Wolf
What has happened, instead, is the conversion of the eurozone into a weaker Germany. The current account balance of the eurozone is expected to shift towards surplus by close to 5 per cent of gross domestic product between 2008 and 2016. Every member is forecast to be in balance or surplus. The eurozone is dependent on the willingness of others to indulge in the spending and borrowing it now eschews.

Yet the rest of the world is cautious, too. The ECB has adopted negative real (and nominal) rates because additional savings are now worth so little. It has also learnt from the dire results of the rise in interest rates in 2011. The easing it has adopted since 2012 is at least bearing fruit in a meaningful, if inadequate, recovery: real demand has risen by 4 per cent since its nadir in the first quarter of 2013; and core inflation, albeit only about 1 per cent, has at last stabilised. This is not failure. It is success.

Martin Wolf
Inevitably, such policies are unpopular in creditor countries. But the argument that the threat is excessively loose monetary policy ignores the dangers posed by excessive tightening. It assumes that deflation would pose no problem. Yet it would raise real indebtedness, undermine the flexibility of real wages and even impair the effectiveness of monetary policy, since it would be far harder to generate negative real interest rates when needed. A deflationary spiral would be a much bigger threat than negative interest rates.

Above all, the eurozone will fail if it is run for the benefit of creditors alone. Policy must be balanced. The ECB's determination to avoid deflation is an important part of that aim. Achieving better balanced demand at the national level is another. A huge deficiency of demand (relative to aggregate supply) in the eurozone's biggest economy is highly problematic. The EU's "excessive imbalance procedure" should be far more critical of Germany's surpluses.

Germany's ideas and interests are of huge importance to the eurozone. But they should not determine everything. If Germans believe this fatally weakens the legitimacy of the European project, they should use their exit option. To do so would also entail accepting great short-term disruption. But, so long as the country stays in the euro, it must also accept that the ECB has a job to do. If the latter does so, it will not make the eurozone work well. But it is surely a vital contribution to that end.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on May 12, 2016, 07:55:31 AM
Quote from: muppet on May 11, 2016, 08:22:20 PM
Quote from: seafoid on May 11, 2016, 07:20:31 PM
Quote from: muppet on May 11, 2016, 06:56:41 PM
Quote from: seafoid on May 11, 2016, 06:14:19 PM
There is no growth anyway. Bit of inflation would generate pay rises for the 99% and generate economic growth. Losers would be the 1%. They do nothing with their money at the moment.

The winners would be the 1% if interest rates rise. They are the ones with the money to buy bonds.

Can you explain how raising interest rates would increase inflation?
inflation would be the way to raise ratesbut debt issuance would have to stop cos debt is driving rates down.

You are not making sense to me.

How can Trump raise interest rates without decreasing inflation and without further debt issuance, which as you say drives the rates he is trying to raise, down?

Trump can implement inflationary policies like loosening fiscal constraints and spending government money with abandon or giving all public employees a 10% pay rise.
If inflation rises rates go up.
The Fed is trying to raise rates without success cos there is no inflation....

Think about the debt in terms of heifers. Heifer prices are very high at the moment. FG farmers are making a lot of money at the mart.
Trump comes along and implements policies that favour sheep farmers. Heifer prices fall. FG farmers lose money.

If inflation turns up bond prices fall and that will hit the 1%
no financial asset  has an intrinsic price. Bond prices can fall back to 100. Nobody will die
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on May 12, 2016, 10:05:04 AM
Quote from: seafoid on May 12, 2016, 07:55:31 AM
Quote from: muppet on May 11, 2016, 08:22:20 PM
Quote from: seafoid on May 11, 2016, 07:20:31 PM
Quote from: muppet on May 11, 2016, 06:56:41 PM
Quote from: seafoid on May 11, 2016, 06:14:19 PM
There is no growth anyway. Bit of inflation would generate pay rises for the 99% and generate economic growth. Losers would be the 1%. They do nothing with their money at the moment.

The winners would be the 1% if interest rates rise. They are the ones with the money to buy bonds.

Can you explain how raising interest rates would increase inflation?
inflation would be the way to raise ratesbut debt issuance would have to stop cos debt is driving rates down.

You are not making sense to me.

How can Trump raise interest rates without decreasing inflation and without further debt issuance, which as you say drives the rates he is trying to raise, down?

Trump can implement inflationary policies like loosening fiscal constraints and spending government money with abandon or giving all public employees a 10% pay rise.
If inflation rises rates go up.
The Fed is trying to raise rates without success cos there is no inflation....

Think about the debt in terms of heifers. Heifer prices are very high at the moment. FG farmers are making a lot of money at the mart.
Trump comes along and implements policies that favour sheep farmers. Heifer prices fall. FG farmers lose money.

If inflation turns up bond prices fall and that will hit the 1%
no financial asset  has an intrinsic price. Bond prices can fall back to 100. Nobody will die

If Trump starts by 'loosening fiscal restraints and spending government money with abandon or giving all public employees a 10% pay rise' he will have to borrow more trillions to do that. He will then have to pray that it works better at generating inflation than QE did or the US economy and the dollar will collapse. May money would be on the latter.

Marxism won't go down well with the GOP either.

Oh, and people would die. There are always unintended consequences.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on May 12, 2016, 10:51:39 AM
Quote from: muppet on May 12, 2016, 10:05:04 AM
Quote from: seafoid on May 12, 2016, 07:55:31 AM
Quote from: muppet on May 11, 2016, 08:22:20 PM
Quote from: seafoid on May 11, 2016, 07:20:31 PM
Quote from: muppet on May 11, 2016, 06:56:41 PM
Quote from: seafoid on May 11, 2016, 06:14:19 PM
There is no growth anyway. Bit of inflation would generate pay rises for the 99% and generate economic growth. Losers would be the 1%. They do nothing with their money at the moment.

The winners would be the 1% if interest rates rise. They are the ones with the money to buy bonds.

Can you explain how raising interest rates would increase inflation?
inflation would be the way to raise ratesbut debt issuance would have to stop cos debt is driving rates down.

You are not making sense to me.

How can Trump raise interest rates without decreasing inflation and without further debt issuance, which as you say drives the rates he is trying to raise, down?

Trump can implement inflationary policies like loosening fiscal constraints and spending government money with abandon or giving all public employees a 10% pay rise.
If inflation rises rates go up.
The Fed is trying to raise rates without success cos there is no inflation....

Think about the debt in terms of heifers. Heifer prices are very high at the moment. FG farmers are making a lot of money at the mart.
Trump comes along and implements policies that favour sheep farmers. Heifer prices fall. FG farmers lose money.

If inflation turns up bond prices fall and that will hit the 1%
no financial asset  has an intrinsic price. Bond prices can fall back to 100. Nobody will die

If Trump starts by 'loosening fiscal restraints and spending government money with abandon or giving all public employees a 10% pay rise' he will have to borrow more trillions to do that. He will then have to pray that it works better at generating inflation than QE did or the US economy and the dollar will collapse. May money would be on the latter.

Marxism won't go down well with the GOP either.

Oh, and people would die. There are always unintended consequences.
7
Muppet the US can issue debt indefinitely. the market will buy it . they will buy any shite. Sure look at Irish bonds trading at 90bps ...
If money goes to the 99% inflation is guaranteed. Sending it to the 1% is deflationary
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on May 12, 2016, 10:55:01 AM
QuoteIf money goes to the 99% inflation is guaranteed.

What money?

Again, what money?

QE is debt. That is the problem with QE and why it doesn't work.

If you give money to the 99% will it be debt or free money?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on May 12, 2016, 11:07:27 AM
Quote from: muppet on May 12, 2016, 10:55:01 AM
QuoteIf money goes to the 99% inflation is guaranteed.

What money?

Again, what money?

QE is debt. That is the problem with QE and why it doesn't work.

If you give money to the 99% will it be debt or free money?
The money that is on the asset side of the balance sheet that issues debt. Central Banks are printing money 24/7
QE is money and debt. The problem is who it goes to.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on May 12, 2016, 11:13:16 AM
Muppet re bonds price is present value of cash flows.

Say a bond issued at 5% 5 years ago with 10 years to go .
Cash flows are 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 100
If interest rates were 5% price would be 100
if interest rates were 2% the price would be higher than 100
If interest rates were 7% the price would be lower than 100.

When rates go up bond prices fall
When rates go down bond prices go up

Supply of bonds drives bond yields down as well.
This is the bond trap

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on May 12, 2016, 11:24:06 AM
Quote from: seafoid on May 12, 2016, 11:07:27 AM
Quote from: muppet on May 12, 2016, 10:55:01 AM
QuoteIf money goes to the 99% inflation is guaranteed.

What money?

Again, what money?

QE is debt. That is the problem with QE and why it doesn't work.

If you give money to the 99% will it be debt or free money?
The money that is on the asset side of the balance sheet that issues debt. Central Banks are printing money 24/7
QE is money and debt. The problem is who it goes to.

QE isn't really money.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100760150 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/100760150)

I think you are talking about printing and giving free money to 'the 99%'. If not, I apologise. But if you are, I'll leave it there.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on May 12, 2016, 01:25:11 PM
Quote from: muppet on May 12, 2016, 11:24:06 AM
Quote from: seafoid on May 12, 2016, 11:07:27 AM
Quote from: muppet on May 12, 2016, 10:55:01 AM
QuoteIf money goes to the 99% inflation is guaranteed.

What money?

Again, what money?

QE is debt. That is the problem with QE and why it doesn't work.

If you give money to the 99% will it be debt or free money?
The money that is on the asset side of the balance sheet that issues debt. Central Banks are printing money 24/7
QE is money and debt. The problem is who it goes to.

QE isn't really money.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100760150 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/100760150)

I think you are talking about printing and giving free money to 'the 99%'. If not, I apologise. But if you are, I'll leave it there.
QE is money. Most money these days is electronic.

Central Banking today is about increasing the monetary base because Friedman said it was the dog's bollocks. But the Central Bankers do not understand how the economy works.   
There is the real economy of cash and the imaginary financial economy of asset prices.
Financial money has drowned the real economy.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on May 12, 2016, 01:31:29 PM
QE is money in return for a bond, which has to be repaid. It is a very cheap loan. The only people benefitting from QE are the advisors, brokers and agents etc who all get fees. The economy isn't borrowing any more so it doesn't work. I am not disputing that.

But what Trump is proposing is completely different. You seem to be arguing for Trumps plan to raise interest rates, but can't explain how he will do this without adverse affects.

If anyone prints money, we are likely to get inflation, hyper-inflation. Ask Mugabe. And the Germans.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on May 12, 2016, 01:35:48 PM
Quote from: muppet on May 12, 2016, 01:31:29 PM
QE is money in return for a bond, which has to be repaid. It is a very cheap loan. The only people benefitting from QE are the advisors, brokers and agents etc who all get fees. The economy isn't borrowing any more so it doesn't work. I am not disputing that.

But what Trump is proposing is completely different. You seem to be arguing for Trumps plan to raise interest rates, but can't explain how he will do this without adverse affects.

If anyone prints money, we are likely to get inflation, hyper-inflation. Ask Mugabe. And the Germans.
Muppet we have already had massive expansion of the monetary base and no inflation.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/money-supply-m1

Why? Cos the money goes straight to the rich. It blows up the value of their assets.
and does nothing for anyone else

We need inflation. Otherwise the whole thing will blow up.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on May 12, 2016, 05:33:38 PM
Quote from: seafoid on May 12, 2016, 01:35:48 PM
Quote from: muppet on May 12, 2016, 01:31:29 PM
QE is money in return for a bond, which has to be repaid. It is a very cheap loan. The only people benefitting from QE are the advisors, brokers and agents etc who all get fees. The economy isn't borrowing any more so it doesn't work. I am not disputing that.

But what Trump is proposing is completely different. You seem to be arguing for Trumps plan to raise interest rates, but can't explain how he will do this without adverse affects.

If anyone prints money, we are likely to get inflation, hyper-inflation. Ask Mugabe. And the Germans.
Muppet we have already had massive expansion of the monetary base and no inflation.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/money-supply-m1

Why? Cos the money goes straight to the rich. It blows up the value of their assets.
and does nothing for anyone else

We need inflation. Otherwise the whole thing will blow up.

Can you show us how 'the money goes straight to the rich' please?

As far as I can see, QE is simply cheap loans (bond buying) to banks created out of thin air. But the money and interest has to be repaid (although apparently none of it has been and there are those that argue it never will).

The problem is that the high street banks don't want to lend, due to over-concern about risk, after the crash (just as they had too little regard for risk before the crash) and also because most people are unwilling to borrow unless absolutely necessary.

The only solution is to force banks to lower their lending standards, which caused the last bubble, or something different like debt write-offs, which has opponents everywhere and on all sides of the political spectrum.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on May 12, 2016, 06:05:14 PM
Muppet something like 60% of bonds in the US are owned by the richest 1%. They own at least 50% of shares.
QE goes straight through for bonds
For shares it goes via buybacks. There was usd 1 trillion in buybacks last year.
And Hillary Clinton is funded by these people.  :o
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on May 12, 2016, 11:05:41 PM
Quote from: seafoid on May 12, 2016, 06:05:14 PM
Muppet something like 60% of bonds in the US are owned by the richest 1%. They own at least 50% of shares.
QE goes straight through for bonds
For shares it goes via buybacks. There was usd 1 trillion in buybacks last year.
And Hillary Clinton is funded by these people.  :o

What the 1% does amongst themselves is of no interest to me. I see it as a waste of time being angry at royalty being all regal.

Beyond wagging the finger at these people, what should we do?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: armaghniac on May 12, 2016, 11:40:07 PM
Quote from: muppet on May 12, 2016, 11:05:41 PM
Quote from: seafoid on May 12, 2016, 06:05:14 PM
Muppet something like 60% of bonds in the US are owned by the richest 1%. They own at least 50% of shares.
QE goes straight through for bonds
For shares it goes via buybacks. There was usd 1 trillion in buybacks last year.
And Hillary Clinton is funded by these people.  :o

What the 1% does amongst themselves is of no interest to me. I see it as a waste of time being angry at royalty being all regal.

Beyond wagging the finger at these people, what should we do?

Retailers "announcing jobs" or going bust rarely affects total retail employment much. These stores are OK, once the rent has been renegotiated.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on May 13, 2016, 10:30:05 AM
Quote from: muppet on May 12, 2016, 11:05:41 PM
Quote from: seafoid on May 12, 2016, 06:05:14 PM
Muppet something like 60% of bonds in the US are owned by the richest 1%. They own at least 50% of shares.
QE goes straight through for bonds
For shares it goes via buybacks. There was usd 1 trillion in buybacks last year.
And Hillary Clinton is funded by these people.  :o

What the 1% does amongst themselves is of no interest to me. I see it as a waste of time being angry at royalty being all regal.

Beyond wagging the finger at these people, what should we do?
Get ready for when it all goes tits up
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on May 15, 2016, 04:32:23 PM
(http://ei.marketwatch.com//Multimedia/2015/12/18/Photos/NS/MW-EB647_worldm_20151218114603_NS.png?uuid=d323a6e8-a5a6-11e5-8513-0015c588e0f6)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on May 17, 2016, 11:30:21 AM
 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ac187312-12cf-11e6-839f-2922947098f0.html

Under the Bretton Woods system of semi-fixed exchange rates, Germany's strategy has been to lock itself into fixed exchange rate system then seek a "real" devaluation through lower relative wages than its competitors. When the system imploded an appreciation of the D-Mark followed. The same happened in the exchange rate mechanism, a precursor to the euro created in the late 1970s. But the euro is meant to be forever. There is no longer any corrective mechanism to Germany's imbalances.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: TabClear on May 26, 2016, 01:31:33 PM
Ulster Bank have sold off more loans to vulture funds.  Agricultural loans included in this tranche which could cause major issues on both sides.

  I know of a few farms that have loan issues that have been in families for generations. If the likes of a Cerberus type fund start to call in title documents like they have on business loans I don't fancy their chances in certain areas.....
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on May 26, 2016, 03:18:41 PM
Quote from: TabClear on May 26, 2016, 01:31:33 PM
Ulster Bank have sold off more loans to vulture funds.  Agricultural loans included in this tranche which could cause major issues on both sides.

  I know of a few farms that have loan issues that have been in families for generations. If the likes of a Cerberus type fund start to call in title documents like they have on business loans I don't fancy their chances in certain areas.....

One of the effects of this is to make it appear like there are less mortgages in arrears, because those loans sold won't show up on any of the main banks books. But it is a cod obviously.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: rosnarun on May 26, 2016, 04:11:10 PM
Quote from: muppet on May 26, 2016, 03:18:41 PM
Quote from: TabClear on May 26, 2016, 01:31:33 PM
Ulster Bank have sold off more loans to vulture funds.  Agricultural loans included in this tranche which could cause major issues on both sides.

  I know of a few farms that have loan issues that have been in families for generations. If the likes of a Cerberus type fund start to call in title documents like they have on business loans I don't fancy their chances in certain areas.....

One of the effects of this is to make it appear like there are less mortgages in arrears, because those loans sold won't show up on any of the main banks books. But it is a cod obviously.
more like cutting their losses and their books now will give a truer indication of the real position of the bank.
Ivan yeats was on this morning saying why not give the borrowere in trouble the option to buy the debts at the same 60% hair cut but if you did that why the hell should performing loans continue to perform and the real cost would be astronomical.

interesting to note from the above diagram is that it would,more or less, take all the notes and coins in the world to payoff the fed debt  pretty mind blowing that.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: heganboy on May 26, 2016, 04:44:44 PM
Muppet,
there are a few serious concerns about that visualization you have there. Starting with derivatives- couldn't be wronger and working backwards- bitcoin and silver I'd agree with, as well as narrow money. Using market cap for companies is worse than half ass, and the rest is ridiculous measurement and misguided effort.

Seafoid,
you have the broad strokes of the bond market correct, for US treasuries, (and most of the other investment grade bonds but especially Treasuries - to a lesser degree munis)  however there are a few other issues you have to consider in pricing.

About to pontificate - fair warning:
***************************

A bond is essentially a promise to trade money now, for a promise of a stream of money in the future and then your money back. t-bill is the same but with no coupons, i.e. no flow just a payout of face value at the end.

Now when a company issues a bond, their credit worthiness is a factor in how much they have to promise to pay in order to get the money in in the first place. The seriously dodgy credit rating industry "certifies" the bond on a rating scale- usually AAA at the best rate down to a junk rating. Triple A pays the lowest coupon as they are the least likely to default, and junk pays a high rate as they are more likely to fail and not pay back the money.

so far so good. Now when you look at any investment you only consider the NPV i.e. you try and assess the Net Present Value (NPV) of the money. So say for example I am getting $100 in 2 years, what is that actually worth to me now. In order to do that you have to assess the risk free rate of that payment. Every borrower and lender has a different risk free rate, and there is a whole (allegedly scientific, but basically mathematically driven speculation) division of most banks that look at very complex ways to build a yield curve which they can agree is the value of payments in the future. This is the first piece of the puzzle. The second piece (or First Derivative! (you know who you are)) is the volatility surface. No matter how good your model is for predicting that future value- things change. Everything changes actually, but economists, and by implication quants, have used the idea of ceteris paribus to pretend they don't change that much. This volatility is also important, and that brings us back full circle to why there are other factors involved.

the interest rate (as per seafoid's example) is often quoted and that is a landmine in definition all on its own- but what we are really looking for is a good approximation to that risk free rate of borrowing which we can find using one of those fancy yield curves with their cubic splining and their binomials, trinomials and monte carlo simulations.

Lets take a look at the other factors.
- Housing industry, more houses sold= more mortgages = more need to hedge 30 year debt= more long term treasuries needed= higher priced treasuries (demand and supply!).
- GDP- how is the US economy stacking up against other economies= predictor for currency exchange rates
- Consumption indicators- how much are people spending and how much are they saving (note to reader- people are stupid - if you want one piece of advice- save more)
- manufacturing indicators- good for wage assessment, short term borrowing requirements, national exchange and trade signals
- the national debt- you can figure this one out.
and depending on your access to data and compute resources (and decent mathematicians, or data scientists, or predictive analytics) you can model these whatever way you want and add as many other factors as you'd like...

So when it comes down to it the price of a bond however it is based on how likely the issuer is to continue making those payments "my word is my bond" and how valuable those payments are to the individual who buys them at the time of valuation

In essence though, all of these can be modeled reasonably successfully, but the 2 biggest factors we haven't touched yet, and they are actually much harder to model accurately are political influence and marketing

1. political influence:
uneducated misguided corrupt dumbasses with no economic background in real life (aka politicians) have been the implementors of the all government budget and debt programs to make good on their asinine claims of what they will do when they are elected. i.e. Greece- we're going to default. Trump- we're gonna buy em back. Trump- forgot to tell you how great I am. Bush, no new taxes, Obama, self reliance for energy. Putin, I'm invading everyone. Boris, we're leaving, Cam, we're staying. All of these jackasses make big promises with the flimsiest of informational background, lots of shitty opinions and no idea of the ramifications for their economy.*

2. Marketing
educated misguided corrupt dumbasses wth no economic background in real life (aka academics) have been propagating half baked assumptions in public in the schools and in the press about the worlds economy for the best part of 4000 years. And when you combine those dickheads with the dickheads in point 1 you make for a scenario where it becomes shockingly difficult for someone outside of the system to get a handle on what's really going on and no one in the system wants those outsiders to see, because odds are they'll see how bad a job they are doing- bring on the robots I say.

And that's how you price a bond!

*************************************

* if you want a stable progressive economy there are a few rules- rule 1 is look after the people (all of the people- not just the ones that elected you- or your mates).
However should you be about to govern somewhere- please try the following and publish the data be transparent on its collection- it'll help trust me!
:
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on May 26, 2016, 05:22:42 PM
Great post Heganboy. I'd vote for you (which proves your 'people are stupid' point nicely  :D).

As for my visualisation, it does say Money & Markets, thus derivatives, market cap and property are probably fair game.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on May 26, 2016, 05:44:37 PM
Quote from: muppet on May 26, 2016, 05:22:42 PM
Great post Heganboy. I'd vote for you (which proves your 'people are stupid' point nicely  :D).

As for my visualisation, it does say Money & Markets, thus derivatives, market cap and property are probably fair game.
muppet in the big short there is an interesting point about the flaws in derivative pricing. The black Scholes method assumes continuity in pricing whereas now it is much more stop start with central banks calling the shots and no growth.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on May 26, 2016, 08:14:44 PM
Quote from: seafoid on May 26, 2016, 05:44:37 PM
Quote from: muppet on May 26, 2016, 05:22:42 PM
Great post Heganboy. I'd vote for you (which proves your 'people are stupid' point nicely  :D).

As for my visualisation, it does say Money & Markets, thus derivatives, market cap and property are probably fair game.
muppet in the big short there is an interesting point about the flaws in derivative pricing. The black Scholes method assumes continuity in pricing whereas now it is much more stop start with central banks calling the shots and no growth.

You think the Central Banks know what all of the OTC derivatives add up to? Warren Buffett is still referring to them as 'weapons of mass destruction'. I don't recall any legislation in Ireland to force individuals or banks to publish data on, for a Sean Quinn example, CFD exposure. Maybe I missed it but I honestly can't recall.

I don't know how accurate the info below is but they provide a link and financially literate people can check it out:

"....I have shared the following numbers with my readers before, but it is absolutely crucial that we all understand how exceedingly vulnerable our financial system really is.  These numbers come directly from the OCC's most recent quarterly report (see Table 2), and they reveal a recklessness that is almost beyond words...

JPMorgan Chase

Total Assets: $2,573,126,000,000 (about 2.6 trillion dollars)

Total Exposure To Derivatives: $63,600,246,000,000 (more than 63 trillion dollars)

Citibank

Total Assets: $1,842,530,000,000 (more than 1.8 trillion dollars)

Total Exposure To Derivatives: $59,951,603,000,000 (more than 59 trillion dollars)


Goldman Sachs

Total Assets: $856,301,000,000 (less than a trillion dollars)

Total Exposure To Derivatives: $57,312,558,000,000 (more than 57 trillion dollars)


Bank Of America

Total Assets: $2,106,796,000,000 (a little bit more than 2.1 trillion dollars)

Total Exposure To Derivatives: $54,224,084,000,000 (more than 54 trillion dollars)


Morgan Stanley

Total Assets: $801,382,000,000 (less than a trillion dollars)

Total Exposure To Derivatives: $38,546,879,000,000 (more than 38 trillion dollars)


Wells Fargo

Total Assets: $1,687,155,000,000 (about 1.7 trillion dollars)

Total Exposure To Derivatives: $5,302,422,000,000 (more than 5 trillion dollars)


Since the United States was first established, the U.S. government has run up a total debt of a bit more than 18 trillion dollars.  It is the biggest mountain of debt in the history of the planet, and it has grown so large that it is literally impossible for us to pay it off at this point.

But the top five banks in the list above each have exposure to derivatives that is more than twice the size of the national debt, and several of them have exposure to derivatives that is more than three times the size of the national debt..."

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/warren-buffett-derivatives-are-still-weapons-of-mass-destruction-and-are-likely-to-cause-big-trouble (http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/warren-buffett-derivatives-are-still-weapons-of-mass-destruction-and-are-likely-to-cause-big-trouble)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on May 26, 2016, 08:17:18 PM
The 1% are spinning furiously that it has nothing to do with them

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/05/23/its-not-the-economy-stupid/
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on May 26, 2016, 08:25:37 PM
Quote from: seafoid on May 26, 2016, 08:17:18 PM
The 1% are spinning furiously that it has nothing to do with them

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/05/23/its-not-the-economy-stupid/

That article says nothing remotely like what you suggested. So who is spinning?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on May 26, 2016, 10:19:51 PM
Quote from: muppet on May 26, 2016, 08:25:37 PM
Quote from: seafoid on May 26, 2016, 08:17:18 PM
The 1% are spinning furiously that it has nothing to do with them

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/05/23/its-not-the-economy-stupid/

That article says nothing remotely like what you suggested. So who is spinning?
You must have read a different article. It says the Republican voters leaving the party for Trump have nothing to do with economic issues . That is fanciful
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on May 26, 2016, 10:35:32 PM
3 things are happening

1. Central Banks are unable to generate inflation and growth so their models are all wrong
2 debt continues to be pumped into a debt saturated global economy
3 Interest rates continue to fall

The lower interest rates go the higher the present value of debt and the wealth of the richest 1%


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/92ccee5e-0345-11e6-af1d-c47326021344.html":The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimates first-quarter GDP growth at just 0.3 per cent. This extends the long-running conundrum of punchy jobs growth combined with damp GDP data, Mr Bullard said, adding his bank's model had been repeatedly indicating that 3 per cent growth was "just around the corner" and this was not happening. "

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/368ef430-1e24-11e6-a7bc-ee846770ec15.html
"For the first time since 2012, cash, short-term investments and liquid long-term investments slipped below debt maturities due over the next five years, Moody's found.
Total debts rose nearly $850bn last year to $6.6tn, a separate report from S&P showed, which put overall cash levels in the US at a slightly higher $1.8tn. While cash had increased by about $600bn over the past five years, obligations surged by $2.8tn.
The increased leverage has been concentrated in smaller and lower quality groups that took advantage of record-low borrowing costs spurred by stimulative monetary policy. "


http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/368ef430-1e24-11e6-a7bc-ee846770ec15.html
"Investors have pointed to the drop in sovereign debt yields as they buy up corporate bonds, with nearly $10tn of debt trading with a negative yield."
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on May 27, 2016, 12:52:25 AM
Quote from: seafoid on May 26, 2016, 10:19:51 PM
Quote from: muppet on May 26, 2016, 08:25:37 PM
Quote from: seafoid on May 26, 2016, 08:17:18 PM
The 1% are spinning furiously that it has nothing to do with them

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/05/23/its-not-the-economy-stupid/

That article says nothing remotely like what you suggested. So who is spinning?
You must have read a different article. It says the Republican voters leaving the party for Trump have nothing to do with economic issues . That is fanciful

You think it says ordinary people are backing Trump because they are moving away from the 1%?

Trump is the 1% personified.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: heganboy on May 27, 2016, 03:40:25 AM
QuoteEconomics cannot really explain why rapid growth in living standards coincided with so much political upheaval, just as it cannot explain why long periods of stagnation, as Japan has endured since the 1990s, are met with relative equanimity. Economics can't explain why Britons may leave the European Union when the preponderance of evidence is that membership has made them richer. It can't explain why Republican voters backed insider Mitt Romney in 2012 when unemployment was 8% and an outsider, Mr. Trump, this year when unemployment is 5%. Why have Republicans warmed to Mr. Trump's hard line against illegal immigration when the number of illegal immigrants has been dropping since 2007? Why have Democrats cheered Mr. Sanders' promise of government-run universal health care when the number of uninsured is at an all-time low?

So this is a missive from "an economist" Greg Ip at the journal.

I'm going to recommend that you read from the authors perspective and replace the word economics with "I" you might be closer to the truth. Economics explains all of it...
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on May 27, 2016, 04:59:36 PM
Why bond yields matter

A bond yielding 5% over 10 years has a value of 100 when the yield is 5%. Should the yield fall to 1.84%, which is the current US Treasury 10 year yield, the value of the bond jumps to 128.6. Assume ever more debt is created and US yields go to zero. The value of the bond is now 150. What is the point of investing in the real economy when the magic of debt generates such returns? Say even more debt is created and yields go to minus 2%. The bond is now worth 178. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on June 01, 2016, 07:03:51 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/2016/0601/792573-anglo-trial/ (http://www.rte.ie/news/2016/0601/792573-anglo-trial/)

Former Anglo Irish Bank executives found guilty of conspiracy to defraud; deliberations to resume on former IL&P verdicts

Bernie Madoff's empire collapsed on the 10 Dec 2008, after the beginning of Anglo's demise. Granted Bernie admitted his guilt, but still Bernie was sentenced in June 2009 for 150 years in prison. Why has it taken us 8 years to get to just a verdict? I applaud the fact that we got here finally, and this should really only be the start of it, but why so bloody long? Are we trying to wait until they are all dead?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on June 01, 2016, 08:48:19 PM
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/244d076e-27d2-11e6-8b18-91555f2f4fde.html
Transformational cost savings are a "pipe dream" for investment banks and only a handful will "eventually" be able to meet their cost of capital, the Boston Consulting Group has warned.
The caution came as BCG executives were speaking to a teleconference of 140 investors about the future of investment banks after publishing a report highlighting the challenges the sector faces as regulatory costs mount, trading volumes drop and interest rates remain problematically low.

These challenges have been underscored again this week with news that HSBC and Macquarie are both cutting jobs, following a path already well trodden by rivals including Nomura and Morgan Stanley.
In their briefing with investors last week, BCG's Philippe Morel and Will Rhode warned that only five or six investment banks would ever meet their cost of capital in an industry whose profitability has been dramatically hit by post-crisis regulation

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rAlTOfl9F2w
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Hound on June 01, 2016, 09:14:29 PM
Quote from: seafoid on May 27, 2016, 04:59:36 PM
Why bond yields matter

A bond yielding 5% over 10 years has a value of 100 when the yield is 5%. Should the yield fall to 1.84%, which is the current US Treasury 10 year yield, the value of the bond jumps to 128.6. Assume ever more debt is created and US yields go to zero. The value of the bond is now 150. What is the point of investing in the real economy when the magic of debt generates such returns? Say even more debt is created and yields go to minus 2%. The bond is now worth 178.
With this level of knowledge, I'm amazed that you're not in the 1% yet.

Bonds aren't difficult to buy. If you find any that are going to jump in value by 28.6% as per above, please let us all know. Of course the ones that will jump in value 50% or 78%  would be better still!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on June 01, 2016, 10:21:02 PM
Quote from: seafoid on June 01, 2016, 08:48:19 PM
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/244d076e-27d2-11e6-8b18-91555f2f4fde.html
Transformational cost savings are a "pipe dream" for investment banks and only a handful will "eventually" be able to meet their cost of capital, the Boston Consulting Group has warned.
The caution came as BCG executives were speaking to a teleconference of 140 investors about the future of investment banks after publishing a report highlighting the challenges the sector faces as regulatory costs mount, trading volumes drop and interest rates remain problematically low.

These challenges have been underscored again this week with news that HSBC and Macquarie are both cutting jobs, following a path already well trodden by rivals including Nomura and Morgan Stanley.
In their briefing with investors last week, BCG's Philippe Morel and Will Rhode warned that only five or six investment banks would ever meet their cost of capital in an industry whose profitability has been dramatically hit by post-crisis regulation

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rAlTOfl9F2w

I have heard it said from people in the business: The only thing worse than too little regulation in the boom is too much regulation  after the crash.

The reality is one follows the other, as sure as night follows day. The other issue is that firms like GS are market makers and so operate ahead of regulation a lot of the time. It is hard to sympathise with Wall St. whinging about regulation.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on June 03, 2016, 11:11:03 AM
. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/37eb6964-2908-11e6-8ba3-cdd781d02d89.html

Negative-yielding government debt has risen above $10tn for the first time, enveloping an increasingly large part of the financial markets after being fuelled by central bank stimulus and a voracious investor appetite for sovereign paper.

The amount of sovereign debt trading with a sub-zero yield climbed 5 per cent in May from a month earlier to $10.4tn, buoyed by rising bond prices in Italy, Japan, Germany and France, according to rating agency Fitch. Yields fall as the price of the underlying bonds climbs.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on June 04, 2016, 02:40:38 PM
Quote from: seafoid on June 03, 2016, 11:11:03 AM
. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/37eb6964-2908-11e6-8ba3-cdd781d02d89.html

Negative-yielding government debt has risen above $10tn for the first time, enveloping an increasingly large part of the financial markets after being fuelled by central bank stimulus and a voracious investor appetite for sovereign paper.

The amount of sovereign debt trading with a sub-zero yield climbed 5 per cent in May from a month earlier to $10.4tn, buoyed by rising bond prices in Italy, Japan, Germany and France, according to rating agency Fitch. Yields fall as the price of the underlying bonds climbs.

As far as I can see, yields are mainly used to price the 2nd-hand bond or Secondary market. But it also seems to be used as a yardstick for the health of economies, in the way CDSs are now used as a yardstick to measure the likelihood of a default.

How big and significant is the Secondary market though? And given that QE distorts interest rates in the main Bond Market, how reliable are any of these metrics these days?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on June 04, 2016, 03:32:41 PM
Quote from: muppet on June 04, 2016, 02:40:38 PM
Quote from: seafoid on June 03, 2016, 11:11:03 AM
. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/37eb6964-2908-11e6-8ba3-cdd781d02d89.html

Negative-yielding government debt has risen above $10tn for the first time, enveloping an increasingly large part of the financial markets after being fuelled by central bank stimulus and a voracious investor appetite for sovereign paper.

The amount of sovereign debt trading with a sub-zero yield climbed 5 per cent in May from a month earlier to $10.4tn, buoyed by rising bond prices in Italy, Japan, Germany and France, according to rating agency Fitch. Yields fall as the price of the underlying bonds climbs.

As far as I can see, yields are mainly used to price the 2nd-hand bond or Secondary market. But it also seems to be used as a yardstick for the health of economies, in the way CDSs are now used as a yardstick to measure the likelihood of a default.

How big and significant is the Secondary market though? And given that QE distorts interest rates in the main Bond Market, how reliable are any of these metrics these days?
QE was supposed to generate growth but it just blew up asset bubbles. Bonds have never been more expensive. It's great for Ireland cos it reduces costs on the 200bn debt but the big downside risk is increased interest rates
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on June 04, 2016, 06:15:38 PM
I love this!

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-hedge-fund-geniuses-got-beaten-by-monkeys-again-2015-06-25?link=sfmw_tw (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-hedge-fund-geniuses-got-beaten-by-monkeys-again-2015-06-25?link=sfmw_tw)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on June 09, 2016, 03:33:58 PM
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/denis-casey-found-guilty-in-anglo-trial-1.2678282
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: heganboy on June 09, 2016, 04:32:48 PM
Quote from: seafoid on June 09, 2016, 03:33:58 PM
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/denis-casey-found-guilty-in-anglo-trial-1.2678282

Pleased to see that the justice system in Ireland has done a better job than in the US or the UK.

The harm visited on the nation by these guys is akin to treason.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Muck Savage on June 09, 2016, 04:35:17 PM
Quote from: heganboy on June 09, 2016, 04:32:48 PM
Quote from: seafoid on June 09, 2016, 03:33:58 PM
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/denis-casey-found-guilty-in-anglo-trial-1.2678282

Pleased to see that the justice system in Ireland has done a better job than in the US or the UK.

The harm visited on the nation by these guys is akin to treason.

They were found guilty but what or when is the sentence? Will they do time, I bet not.
sc**bag bankers!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: armaghniac on July 01, 2016, 12:07:10 PM
The interest rate on the last Swiss bond, a 50 year one, has gone negative. So investors are willing to pay the Swiss government to get back less in 2064!

The world is coped.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on July 01, 2016, 01:02:56 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on July 01, 2016, 12:07:10 PM
The interest rate on the last Swiss bond, a 50 year one, has gone negative. So investors are willing to pay the Swiss government to get back less in 2064!

The world is coped.
Ponzi

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt-to-gdp

Go to max and check out 1950 to 1965
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: armaghniac on July 12, 2016, 11:38:45 AM
Very strange economic stats
http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/0712/801870-cso-on-economy/

The economy grew by an enormous 26% last year, according to the latest figures from the Central Statistics Office.

The figures are the strongest performance by Ireland in recent decades and compare to an estimate of GDP growth of 7.8% for 2015.

However, much of the rise is as a result of aircraft purchases, corporate restructuring and companies re-locating assets to Ireland.

These changes have not resulted in a significant increase in employment.

The country's Gross Domestic Product expanded by 26.3% in 2015 compared to 2014, while Gross National Product was up 18.7%.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: armaghniac on July 29, 2016, 11:20:59 AM
A few of bankers going to the big house. I'm not sure why it took so long to do this.

Three former bank executives have been given prison sentences ranging from two years to three and a half years at Dublin Circuit Criminal Court in Dublin for their part in a €7.2bn conspiracy.

Former Anglo Irish Bank executives John Bowe and Willie McAteer and the former chief executive of Irish Life and Permanent, Denis Casey, were found guilty last month of agreeing a scheme to mislead the public about the true health of Anglo.

Judge Martin Nolan sentenced Bowe to two years, McAteer to three and a half years and Casey to two years and nine months.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: johnneycool on July 29, 2016, 12:23:43 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on July 29, 2016, 11:20:59 AM
A few of bankers going to the big house. I'm not sure why it took so long to do this.

Three former bank executives have been given prison sentences ranging from two years to three and a half years at Dublin Circuit Criminal Court in Dublin for their part in a €7.2bn conspiracy.

Former Anglo Irish Bank executives John Bowe and Willie McAteer and the former chief executive of Irish Life and Permanent, Denis Casey, were found guilty last month of agreeing a scheme to mislead the public about the true health of Anglo.

Judge Martin Nolan sentenced Bowe to two years, McAteer to three and a half years and Casey to two years and nine months.

Was this not part of Sean Quinns defence that he was duped by their financial reporting when buying his CFD's?


Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: armaghniac on July 29, 2016, 12:56:22 PM
Quote from: johnneycool on July 29, 2016, 12:23:43 PM
Was this not part of Sean Quinns defence that he was duped by their financial reporting when buying his CFD's?

It was, although given the scale of his investment you would imagine he could have sought advice on the quality of same. The grannys who had €10,000 of Anglo shares for their pension would not have had access to the same professional advice.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on July 29, 2016, 12:58:45 PM
Quote from: johnneycool on July 29, 2016, 12:23:43 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on July 29, 2016, 11:20:59 AM
A few of bankers going to the big house. I'm not sure why it took so long to do this.

Three former bank executives have been given prison sentences ranging from two years to three and a half years at Dublin Circuit Criminal Court in Dublin for their part in a €7.2bn conspiracy.

Former Anglo Irish Bank executives John Bowe and Willie McAteer and the former chief executive of Irish Life and Permanent, Denis Casey, were found guilty last month of agreeing a scheme to mislead the public about the true health of Anglo.

Judge Martin Nolan sentenced Bowe to two years, McAteer to three and a half years and Casey to two years and nine months.

Was this not part of Sean Quinns defence that he was duped by their financial reporting when buying his CFD's?
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/i-don-t-feel-ashamed-but-i-do-feel-regret-very-serious-regret-1.1276960

Fitzpatrick thought Quinn was a "real 1960s Irishman. He was one of those hail fellow well met, ah sure I will go down there and play the old cards, five or six lads for 10 bob, or whatever it was. He was always producing all that and would be nearly blessing himself. Everything will be all right. He was very human but, I didn't easily like him."
On March 25th, 2008, the four men met again, this time in a room in Buswells Hotel in Dublin. The ongoing fall in the Anglo share price was threatening the Quinn business empire and the bank. At one stage Quinn and FitzPatrick were alone in the room.
"He was very close to tears. He could see what was happening."
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Declan on July 29, 2016, 01:36:59 PM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/28/imf-admits-disastrous-love-affair-with-euro-apologises-for-the-i/ (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/28/imf-admits-disastrous-love-affair-with-euro-apologises-for-the-i/)

Mastermind specialised subject - the bleedin obvious
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on July 29, 2016, 01:55:38 PM
Quote from: johnneycool on July 29, 2016, 12:23:43 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on July 29, 2016, 11:20:59 AM
A few of bankers going to the big house. I'm not sure why it took so long to do this.

Three former bank executives have been given prison sentences ranging from two years to three and a half years at Dublin Circuit Criminal Court in Dublin for their part in a €7.2bn conspiracy.

Former Anglo Irish Bank executives John Bowe and Willie McAteer and the former chief executive of Irish Life and Permanent, Denis Casey, were found guilty last month of agreeing a scheme to mislead the public about the true health of Anglo.

Judge Martin Nolan sentenced Bowe to two years, McAteer to three and a half years and Casey to two years and nine months.

Was this not part of Sean Quinns defence that he was duped by their financial reporting when buying his CFD's?

The bizarre transaction happened in September 2008, long after Quinn had dived in.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on July 29, 2016, 07:53:40 PM
US q2 growth is an annualised 1.2%. Which is appalling.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: GJL on August 30, 2016, 09:52:32 AM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37216176 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37216176)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Hereiam on August 30, 2016, 10:38:21 AM
Won't be a penny paid by apple GJL.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: JohnDenver on August 30, 2016, 11:09:26 AM
Rotten to the core
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: GJL on August 30, 2016, 11:34:33 AM
Quote from: JohnDenver on August 30, 2016, 11:09:26 AM
Rotten to the core

Definitely leaves a sour taste!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Declan on August 30, 2016, 11:35:01 AM
This guy was on RTE this morning giving Brian Hayes a lesson:

http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2016/08/30/the-apple-decision-my-reaction/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+org%2FlWWh+%28Tax+Research+UK+2%29 (http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2016/08/30/the-apple-decision-my-reaction/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+org%2FlWWh+%28Tax+Research+UK+2%29)

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Hound on August 30, 2016, 11:35:32 AM
EUR 13 billion owed by Apple to Ireland according to the European Commission!
Plus interest (running at 8% to 10% depending on the years), which might add another approx EUR 5 billion.

Although it does say "up to 13bn" so there may be some exageration built in, but it's a big number.
The ruling also states that it may not all be due to Ireland - parts of it (and maybe a big part of it) could be due to other EU countries and/or the US.

This will be appealed by Ireland, but in the meantime, Ireland has to collect the money due and hold it in escrow.

The reason for the appeal would be that Ireland would claim the letter of the law that existed at that time was followed. If the Apple IP wasn't in Ireland, then the super-profits couldnt be taxed in Ireland.

I think a problem Apple has is they may not have done enough to support where the location of the IP was. The ruling they got from Ireland seemed to place a cap on Irish profits, which may not have been common practice for other companies with similar structures.

Apple used a Foreign Head Office and Irish branch structure, which was far less commonly used than the Double Irish, which seems to be more robust (to date, the European Commission has not felt the latter constituted state aid)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: No wides on August 30, 2016, 01:02:27 PM
Quote from: Hound on August 30, 2016, 11:35:32 AM
EUR 13 billion owed by Apple to Ireland according to the European Commission!
Plus interest (running at 8% to 10% depending on the years), which might add another approx EUR 5 billion.


Although it does say "up to 13bn" so there may be some exageration built in, but it's a big number.
The ruling also states that it may not all be due to Ireland - parts of it (and maybe a big part of it) could be due to other EU countries and/or the US.

This will be appealed by Ireland, but in the meantime, Ireland has to collect the money due and hold it in escrow.

The reason for the appeal would be that Ireland would claim the letter of the law that existed at that time was followed. If the Apple IP wasn't in Ireland, then the super-profits couldnt be taxed in Ireland.

I think a problem Apple has is they may not have done enough to support where the location of the IP was. The ruling they got from Ireland seemed to place a cap on Irish profits, which may not have been common practice for other companies with similar structures.

Apple used a Foreign Head Office and Irish branch structure, which was far less commonly used than the Double Irish, which seems to be more robust (to date, the European Commission has not felt the latter constituted state aid)

And the Irish government are going to appeal it, so much for democracy - f**k the average Joe!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Hound on August 30, 2016, 01:10:36 PM
Quote from: No wides on August 30, 2016, 01:02:27 PM
Quote from: Hound on August 30, 2016, 11:35:32 AM
EUR 13 billion owed by Apple to Ireland according to the European Commission!
Plus interest (running at 8% to 10% depending on the years), which might add another approx EUR 5 billion.


Although it does say "up to 13bn" so there may be some exageration built in, but it's a big number.
The ruling also states that it may not all be due to Ireland - parts of it (and maybe a big part of it) could be due to other EU countries and/or the US.

This will be appealed by Ireland, but in the meantime, Ireland has to collect the money due and hold it in escrow.

The reason for the appeal would be that Ireland would claim the letter of the law that existed at that time was followed. If the Apple IP wasn't in Ireland, then the super-profits couldnt be taxed in Ireland.

I think a problem Apple has is they may not have done enough to support where the location of the IP was. The ruling they got from Ireland seemed to place a cap on Irish profits, which may not have been common practice for other companies with similar structures.

Apple used a Foreign Head Office and Irish branch structure, which was far less commonly used than the Double Irish, which seems to be more robust (to date, the European Commission has not felt the latter constituted state aid)

And the Irish government are going to appeal it, so much for democracy - f**k the average Joe!
No choice but to appeal it. Can't tax profits that don't belong to Ireland. The technology etc that generated the massive profits never belonged to an Irish resident company or an Irish branch.

Apple seemed to have created uncertainty/vaccuum in terms of where exactly the technology was located - but all Ireland can worry about is itself - doesn't belong to us so we can't tax it.

After appeals/courts, etc, if the EU makes us tax it, then so be it. But  at the very least we have to put a show on to fight it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: TabClear on August 30, 2016, 01:12:52 PM
Quote from: No wides on August 30, 2016, 01:02:27 PM
Quote from: Hound on August 30, 2016, 11:35:32 AM
EUR 13 billion owed by Apple to Ireland according to the European Commission!
Plus interest (running at 8% to 10% depending on the years), which might add another approx EUR 5 billion.


Although it does say "up to 13bn" so there may be some exageration built in, but it's a big number.
The ruling also states that it may not all be due to Ireland - parts of it (and maybe a big part of it) could be due to other EU countries and/or the US.

This will be appealed by Ireland, but in the meantime, Ireland has to collect the money due and hold it in escrow.

The reason for the appeal would be that Ireland would claim the letter of the law that existed at that time was followed. If the Apple IP wasn't in Ireland, then the super-profits couldnt be taxed in Ireland.

I think a problem Apple has is they may not have done enough to support where the location of the IP was. The ruling they got from Ireland seemed to place a cap on Irish profits, which may not have been common practice for other companies with similar structures.

Apple used a Foreign Head Office and Irish branch structure, which was far less commonly used than the Double Irish, which seems to be more robust (to date, the European Commission has not felt the latter constituted state aid)

And the Irish government are going to appeal it, so much for democracy - f**k the average Joe!

Not that simple. How many "average joes" only have a job because the Irish tax regime attracts so much FDI.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: No wides on August 30, 2016, 01:19:44 PM
How much investment is there in Ireland for trades and apprenticeships, the whole economy is based upon letting huge technology firms pay little or no tax for employment of some of its citizens.  Appealing this decision sums up what the Irish government's priorities are about.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: weareros on August 30, 2016, 01:22:28 PM
Tim Cook's letter is worth reading http://www.apple.com/ie/customer-letter/

Easy forget that they invested here when we were an economic backwater and according to him are the largest taxpayer today in Ireland.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: armaghniac on August 30, 2016, 01:31:53 PM
Quote from: weareros on August 30, 2016, 01:22:28 PM
Tim Cook's letter is worth reading http://www.apple.com/ie/customer-letter/

Easy forget that they invested here when we were an economic backwater and according to him are the largest taxpayer today in Ireland.

I think though this is only partly the point.

Apple's production in the 80s, assembling computers, was a one thing, their present operations another. The general thrust of the taxation arrangement were probably appropriate for the former, less so for the latter.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: TabClear on August 30, 2016, 01:37:29 PM
Quote from: No wides on August 30, 2016, 01:19:44 PM
How much investment is there in Ireland for trades and apprenticeships, the whole economy is based upon letting huge technology firms pay little or no tax for employment of some of its citizens.  Appealing this decision sums up what the Irish government's priorities are about.

What trades/apprenticeships? If your talking about the traditional trades Would more investment in these have helped the construction industry over the past decade? If anything it might have made things worse.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on August 30, 2016, 02:56:54 PM
Quote from: Hound on August 30, 2016, 01:10:36 PM
Quote from: No wides on August 30, 2016, 01:02:27 PM
Quote from: Hound on August 30, 2016, 11:35:32 AM
EUR 13 billion owed by Apple to Ireland according to the European Commission!
Plus interest (running at 8% to 10% depending on the years), which might add another approx EUR 5 billion.


Although it does say "up to 13bn" so there may be some exageration built in, but it's a big number.
The ruling also states that it may not all be due to Ireland - parts of it (and maybe a big part of it) could be due to other EU countries and/or the US.

This will be appealed by Ireland, but in the meantime, Ireland has to collect the money due and hold it in escrow.

The reason for the appeal would be that Ireland would claim the letter of the law that existed at that time was followed. If the Apple IP wasn't in Ireland, then the super-profits couldnt be taxed in Ireland.

I think a problem Apple has is they may not have done enough to support where the location of the IP was. The ruling they got from Ireland seemed to place a cap on Irish profits, which may not have been common practice for other companies with similar structures.

Apple used a Foreign Head Office and Irish branch structure, which was far less commonly used than the Double Irish, which seems to be more robust (to date, the European Commission has not felt the latter constituted state aid)

And the Irish government are going to appeal it, so much for democracy - f**k the average Joe!
No choice but to appeal it. Can't tax profits that don't belong to Ireland. The technology etc that generated the massive profits never belonged to an Irish resident company or an Irish branch.

Apple seemed to have created uncertainty/vaccuum in terms of where exactly the technology was located - but all Ireland can worry about is itself - doesn't belong to us so we can't tax it.

After appeals/courts, etc, if the EU makes us tax it, then so be it. But  at the very least we have to put a show on to fight it.

Delighted to see some proper perspective on this thread regarding Apple.

This is not as simple as some of the shameless populists, such as Joe Higgins and Joe Brolly, on Twitter (to name just two) would have you believe. Their tweets are right up there with the '£350 a week to the NHS' Brexit campaign.

For a start, do we really want to cheer when the EU Commissioners have decided that our taxation is under their (unmandated) control?

I'd like to read some balanced opinion before completely making up my mind on the rights and wrongs of it.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Declan on August 30, 2016, 03:03:34 PM
QuoteDelighted to see some proper perspective on this thread regarding Apple.

This is not as simple as some of the shameless populists, such as Joe Higgins and Joe Brolly, on Twitter (to name just two) would have you believe. Their tweets are right up there with the '£350 a week to the NHS' Brexit campaign.

For a start, do we really want to cheer when the EU Commissioners have decided that our taxation is under their (unmandated) control?

I'd like to read some balanced opinion before completely making up my mind on the rights and wrongs of it.

Agreed - This is a decent response that give some food for thought I think and also interesting to note that the apple share price has only dropped by 0.6% on the announcement

 
Statement on the European Commission ruling in relation to the tax arrangements between Apple and the Irish State

Today's European Commission ruling, which demands Ireland claims back taxes in excess of €13bn from Apple, highlights the double standards which exists in our country towards multi-nationals and indigenous business.

While Small and Medium sized enterprises, which employ seven out of every 10 people in the private sector, struggled throughout the downturn, many going to the wall, this multi-national giant was paying the bare minimum in tax.

"It would be totally intolerable for the Irish state to challenge this ruling by the European Commission," said Social Democrat TD Catherine Murphy.

She added: "It would require the Minister for Finance to effectively seek to block our Revenue Commissioners from claiming this unpaid tax back."

There was no tax break for Irish businesses doing everything within their power to survive. Instead they and the Irish people had to endure widespread cut-backs.

While the Irish people were forced to tighten their belts Apple, courtesy of the special tax arrangement they'd agreed with the state, lapped up huge profits.

Funding for public services were cut while tax revenue went uncollected. In health, housing, education, transport, local government, and a host of other sectors, the people paid the price. Apple did not.

To put the €13bn into context it equates to almost our entire annual health budget or the total intake from the USC charge for three years. And our projected VAT intake for 2016 comes to just shy of the €13bn mark.

"There was no special treatment for the Irish people and indigenous Irish enterprise when the economic bubble burst. At the same time as Minister Noonan was telling the people to brace themselves for economic turbulence Apple was benefitting from this deal," Said Social Democrat TD Catherine Murphy.

And she added that "It's clear that Apple Operations Europe and Apple Sales International could not have generated the profits yielded without the favourable tax rates here in Ireland. "

Deputy Murphy has called on an investigation into how the special tax arrangement with Apple was constructed and subsequent updates to it over the years.


For further information please contact:
Anne-Marie McNally
01-618 3591 / 086-3754315
annemarie.mcnally@socialdemocrats.ie
@amomcnally



Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: cicfada on August 30, 2016, 03:31:33 PM
Surely the gov have to be seen to be fighting this ruling, just to look good  to the multinationals, don't they? It's all good and well to have tax harmonisation across the EU but we're a tiny component of that Union and we have to get any competitive edge, we can surely? This could have huge implications for FDI into the country and  along with Trumps proposed corporate tax  changes represent the biggest challenge to keeping those multinationals in this country. By a country mile, the biggest challenge for this gov! Good luck to them, there are an awful lot of jobs riding on multinationals in this country of which mine is one.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Bord na Mona man on August 30, 2016, 03:40:01 PM
We'll fight this ruling, but let's not bring in Frank Murphy to find a loophole either...
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on August 30, 2016, 03:41:59 PM
Quote from: cicfada on August 30, 2016, 03:31:33 PM
Surely the gov have to be seen to be fighting this ruling, just to look good  to the multinationals, don't they? It's all good and well to have tax harmonisation across the EU but we're a tiny component of that Union and we have to get any competitive edge, we can surely? This could have huge implications for FDI into the country and  along with Trumps proposed corporate tax  changes represent the biggest challenge to keeping those multinationals in this country. By a country mile, the biggest challenge for this gov! Good luck to them, there are an awful lot of jobs riding on multinationals in this country of which mine is one.

Apple claim they paid €400m in tax, in Ireland, in 2014.

This would be around 1% of their worldwide profits (I think it was £42bn). According to this http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-17/which-companies-paid-most-income-tax-2014 (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-17/which-companies-paid-most-income-tax-2014) they paid $14bn to the US in taxes that year, or 33% of worldwide profits (though the article doesn't mention this so take this with a grain of salt).

The EU Commission seems to ignore the tax paid in the US and claims that Ireland were due that tax. Am I reading this right?



Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Jim_Murphy_74 on August 30, 2016, 03:44:30 PM
Quote from: No wides on August 30, 2016, 01:02:27 PM
And the Irish government are going to appeal it, so much for democracy - f**k the average Joe!

Not that simple.  Apple provide over 4.000 jobs in Ireland.  Estimated 2,500 other jobs are dependent on them.  That's a lot of wages, revenue into our economy.  Now, if we stick them for tax bill they might not necessarily move but if they did then we wouldn't be long shelling out billions in social welfare for all these people.  Also it could scare other multinationals with the same effect.

Also this is the kind of interference that Brexit campaigners talked about.  A crowd in Europe telling our revenue and government how to implement their own rules.

Government need to think carefully in terms of macro effect of this.  While some would have you grab the cash, spend it need to consider will there be unforeseen consequences that might accrue.

If we are satisfied that getting the tax back results in an overall positive return, then go for it.  Otherwise, fight the thing tooth and nail.

/Jim.

 

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: trueblue1234 on August 30, 2016, 04:45:04 PM
Quote from: Jim_Murphy_74 on August 30, 2016, 03:44:30 PM
Quote from: No wides on August 30, 2016, 01:02:27 PM
And the Irish government are going to appeal it, so much for democracy - f**k the average Joe!

Not that simple.  Apple provide over 4.000 jobs in Ireland.  Estimated 2,500 other jobs are dependent on them.  That's a lot of wages, revenue into our economy.  Now, if we stick them for tax bill they might not necessarily move but if they did then we wouldn't be long shelling out billions in social welfare for all these people.  Also it could scare other multinationals with the same effect.

Also this is the kind of interference that Brexit campaigners talked about.  A crowd in Europe telling our revenue and government how to implement their own rules.

Government need to think carefully in terms of macro effect of this.  While some would have you grab the cash, spend it need to consider will there be unforeseen consequences that might accrue.

If we are satisfied that getting the tax back results in an overall positive return, then go for it. Otherwise, fight the thing tooth and nail.

/Jim.



Funny I remember similar arguments being put forward for a certain Fermanagh man who employed similar employment figures but those arguments were shot down and passed of as parochial nonsense.
The bit in black in particular would raise an eyebrow for me, Surely if the tax is owed, then it has to be collected, regardless of whether the overall return is positive? Otherwise are we going to do the same for smaller indigenous companies as well?
(By the way I don't know enough about the tax laws to say if this should be taxed or not, I'm sure they have better informed people than me on the European Commission who have decided that this tax is due, but for the time being Ireland should lift the money and leave the appealing to Apple)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on August 30, 2016, 04:50:20 PM
Quote from: trueblue1234 on August 30, 2016, 04:45:04 PM
Quote from: Jim_Murphy_74 on August 30, 2016, 03:44:30 PM
Quote from: No wides on August 30, 2016, 01:02:27 PM
And the Irish government are going to appeal it, so much for democracy - f**k the average Joe!

Not that simple.  Apple provide over 4.000 jobs in Ireland.  Estimated 2,500 other jobs are dependent on them.  That's a lot of wages, revenue into our economy.  Now, if we stick them for tax bill they might not necessarily move but if they did then we wouldn't be long shelling out billions in social welfare for all these people.  Also it could scare other multinationals with the same effect.

Also this is the kind of interference that Brexit campaigners talked about.  A crowd in Europe telling our revenue and government how to implement their own rules.

Government need to think carefully in terms of macro effect of this.  While some would have you grab the cash, spend it need to consider will there be unforeseen consequences that might accrue.

If we are satisfied that getting the tax back results in an overall positive return, then go for it. Otherwise, fight the thing tooth and nail.

/Jim.



Funny I remember similar arguments being put forward for a certain Fermanagh man who employed similar employment figures but those arguments were shot down and passed of as parochial nonsense.
The bit in black in particular would raise an eyebrow for me, Surely if the tax is owed, then it has to be collected, regardless of whether the overall return is positive? Otherwise are we going to do the same for smaller indigenous companies as well?
(By the way I don't know enough about the tax laws to say if this should be taxed or not, I'm sure they have better informed people than me on the European Commission who have decided that this tax is due, but for the time being Ireland should lift the money and leave the appealing to Apple)

The competent authority is the Irish Revenue.

The EU Commission has now decided that it is the competent authority.

Here is one of the most vocal Commissioners on this subject: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margrethe_Vestager (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margrethe_Vestager). She has a degree in Economics but has been a politician since she was 21.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: screenexile on August 30, 2016, 04:50:55 PM
Quote from: trueblue1234 on August 30, 2016, 04:45:04 PM
Quote from: Jim_Murphy_74 on August 30, 2016, 03:44:30 PM
Quote from: No wides on August 30, 2016, 01:02:27 PM
And the Irish government are going to appeal it, so much for democracy - f**k the average Joe!

Not that simple.  Apple provide over 4.000 jobs in Ireland.  Estimated 2,500 other jobs are dependent on them.  That's a lot of wages, revenue into our economy.  Now, if we stick them for tax bill they might not necessarily move but if they did then we wouldn't be long shelling out billions in social welfare for all these people.  Also it could scare other multinationals with the same effect.

Also this is the kind of interference that Brexit campaigners talked about.  A crowd in Europe telling our revenue and government how to implement their own rules.

Government need to think carefully in terms of macro effect of this.  While some would have you grab the cash, spend it need to consider will there be unforeseen consequences that might accrue.

If we are satisfied that getting the tax back results in an overall positive return, then go for it. Otherwise, fight the thing tooth and nail.

/Jim.



Funny I remember similar arguments being put forward for a certain Fermanagh man who employed similar employment figures but those arguments were shot down and passed of as parochial nonsense.
The bit in black in particular would raise an eyebrow for me, Surely if the tax is owed, then it has to be collected, regardless of whether the overall return is positive? Otherwise are we going to do the same for smaller indigenous companies as well?
(By the way I don't know enough about the tax laws to say if this should be taxed or not, I'm sure they have better informed people than me on the European Commission who have decided that this tax is due, but for the time being Ireland should lift the money and leave the appealing to Apple)

You're not comparing like with like there or anything close to it!

Quinn was illegally propping up a bank! Apple have been by the book here and it is our own Govt who seem to have stepped out of line with European legislation.

Quinn was not a simple matter of back taxes being owed that he could just pay back. He was a huge factor in the entire economy collapsing around Anglo!!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: trueblue1234 on August 30, 2016, 04:57:39 PM
Quote from: screenexile on August 30, 2016, 04:50:55 PM
Quote from: trueblue1234 on August 30, 2016, 04:45:04 PM
Quote from: Jim_Murphy_74 on August 30, 2016, 03:44:30 PM
Quote from: No wides on August 30, 2016, 01:02:27 PM
And the Irish government are going to appeal it, so much for democracy - f**k the average Joe!

Not that simple.  Apple provide over 4.000 jobs in Ireland.  Estimated 2,500 other jobs are dependent on them.  That's a lot of wages, revenue into our economy.  Now, if we stick them for tax bill they might not necessarily move but if they did then we wouldn't be long shelling out billions in social welfare for all these people.  Also it could scare other multinationals with the same effect.

Also this is the kind of interference that Brexit campaigners talked about.  A crowd in Europe telling our revenue and government how to implement their own rules.

Government need to think carefully in terms of macro effect of this.  While some would have you grab the cash, spend it need to consider will there be unforeseen consequences that might accrue.

If we are satisfied that getting the tax back results in an overall positive return, then go for it. Otherwise, fight the thing tooth and nail.

/Jim.



Funny I remember similar arguments being put forward for a certain Fermanagh man who employed similar employment figures but those arguments were shot down and passed of as parochial nonsense.
The bit in black in particular would raise an eyebrow for me, Surely if the tax is owed, then it has to be collected, regardless of whether the overall return is positive? Otherwise are we going to do the same for smaller indigenous companies as well?
(By the way I don't know enough about the tax laws to say if this should be taxed or not, I'm sure they have better informed people than me on the European Commission who have decided that this tax is due, but for the time being Ireland should lift the money and leave the appealing to Apple)

You're not comparing like with like there or anything close to it!

Quinn was illegally propping up a bank! Apple have been by the book here and it is our own Govt who seem to have stepped out of line with European legislation.

Quinn was not a simple matter of back taxes being owed that he could just pay back. He was a huge factor in the entire economy collapsing around Anglo!!
My point wasn't about the rights and wrongs of Sean Quinn, nor near it. My point was that when issues about job losses in the border countries were raised, it was deemed parochial and not a deciding factor.

Quote from: muppet on August 30, 2016, 04:50:20 PM
Quote from: trueblue1234 on August 30, 2016, 04:45:04 PM
Quote from: Jim_Murphy_74 on August 30, 2016, 03:44:30 PM
Quote from: No wides on August 30, 2016, 01:02:27 PM
And the Irish government are going to appeal it, so much for democracy - f**k the average Joe!

Not that simple.  Apple provide over 4.000 jobs in Ireland.  Estimated 2,500 other jobs are dependent on them.  That's a lot of wages, revenue into our economy.  Now, if we stick them for tax bill they might not necessarily move but if they did then we wouldn't be long shelling out billions in social welfare for all these people.  Also it could scare other multinationals with the same effect.

Also this is the kind of interference that Brexit campaigners talked about.  A crowd in Europe telling our revenue and government how to implement their own rules.

Government need to think carefully in terms of macro effect of this.  While some would have you grab the cash, spend it need to consider will there be unforeseen consequences that might accrue.

If we are satisfied that getting the tax back results in an overall positive return, then go for it. Otherwise, fight the thing tooth and nail.

/Jim.



Funny I remember similar arguments being put forward for a certain Fermanagh man who employed similar employment figures but those arguments were shot down and passed of as parochial nonsense.
The bit in black in particular would raise an eyebrow for me, Surely if the tax is owed, then it has to be collected, regardless of whether the overall return is positive? Otherwise are we going to do the same for smaller indigenous companies as well?
(By the way I don't know enough about the tax laws to say if this should be taxed or not, I'm sure they have better informed people than me on the European Commission who have decided that this tax is due, but for the time being Ireland should lift the money and leave the appealing to Apple)

The competent authority is the Irish Revenue.

The EU Commission has now decided that it is the competent authority.

Here is one of the most vocal Commissioners on this subject: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margrethe_Vestager (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margrethe_Vestager). She has a degree in Economics but has been a politician since she was 21.

If the competent authority is the Irish Revenue, why are they being told what they have to do by the EU Commission? And why would they have to follow the Commission's findings? Who has final jurisdiction?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on August 30, 2016, 05:04:19 PM
Quote from: trueblue1234 on August 30, 2016, 04:57:39 PM
If the competent authority is the Irish Revenue, why are they being told what they have to do by the EU Commission? And why would they have to follow the Commission's findings? Who has final jurisdiction?

This is an unfair competition ruling as far as I can see.

I would be interested to know if the basis of the investigation was a complaint from another company or country, or did the EU Commission just decide that there was unfair competition and investigate themselves.

The same Commissioner is after Google under the same law, but for different reasons. She thinks Google has too much access to info.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Hound on August 30, 2016, 05:04:30 PM
Quote from: muppet on August 30, 2016, 03:41:59 PM
Apple claim they paid €400m in tax, in Ireland, in 2014.

This would be around 1% of their worldwide profits (I think it was £42bn). According to this http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-17/which-companies-paid-most-income-tax-2014 (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-17/which-companies-paid-most-income-tax-2014) they paid $14bn to the US in taxes that year, or 33% of worldwide profits (though the article doesn't mention this so take this with a grain of salt).

The EU Commission seems to ignore the tax paid in the US and claims that Ireland were due that tax. Am I reading this right?
The EU Commission would be ignoring US profits as well as US tax. It's only international (being non-US) profits that would be run through the Ireland structure.

US would tax all US profits and any international profits that are repatriated to the US (the latter being very little, as Apple have something of the order of $200 billion cash offshore that built up as a result of non-US profits).

I think Apple's US tax rate could be of the order of 43% (35% federal and 8% California state tax).

So if your figure of $42bn is right for worldwide profit, then the split might be $24bn US and $18bn international (and that would be after international pays US something of the order of $2bn a year for R&D carried on in the US).

(Although accounting profits multiplied by tax rate doesn't equal tax paid because of various adjustments for non-deductible items, capital allowances and all kinds of other stuff!)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on August 30, 2016, 05:11:18 PM
Quote from: Hound on August 30, 2016, 05:04:30 PM
Quote from: muppet on August 30, 2016, 03:41:59 PM
Apple claim they paid €400m in tax, in Ireland, in 2014.

This would be around 1% of their worldwide profits (I think it was £42bn). According to this http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-17/which-companies-paid-most-income-tax-2014 (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-17/which-companies-paid-most-income-tax-2014) they paid $14bn to the US in taxes that year, or 33% of worldwide profits (though the article doesn't mention this so take this with a grain of salt).

The EU Commission seems to ignore the tax paid in the US and claims that Ireland were due that tax. Am I reading this right?
The EU Commission would be ignoring US profits as well as US tax. It's only international (being non-US) profits that would be run through the Ireland structure.

US would tax all US profits and any international profits that are repatriated to the US (the latter being very little, as Apple have something of the order of $20 billion cash offshore that built up as a result of non-US profits).

I think Apple's US tax rate could be of the order of 43% (35% federal and 8% California state tax).

So if your figure of $42bn is right for worldwide profit, then the split might be $24bn US and $18bn international (and that would be after international pays US something of the order of $2bn a year for R&D carried on in the US).

(Although accounting profits multiplied by tax rate doesn't equal tax paid because of various adjustments for non-deductible items, capital allowances and all kinds of other stuff!)

Intersting.

If the worldwide profit was $18bn then the effect tax rate would be 2.2%. The EU (from what I have read) are claiming the effective rate is 1% (neither appear to be allowing for adjustments). Is it possible that the EU are trumpeting an obviously incorrect figure?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Hound on August 30, 2016, 05:19:35 PM
Either way, Apple had their international technology and profits offshore and have paid no tax on it.

But Ireland's contention is that has nothing to do with Ireland. We collect tax on the Irish profits and aren't entitled to collect more based on OECD rules

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on August 30, 2016, 05:27:26 PM
Quote from: Hound on August 30, 2016, 05:19:35 PM
Either way, Apple had their international technology and profits offshore and have paid no tax on it.

But Ireland's contention is that has nothing to do with Ireland. We collect tax on the Irish profits and aren't entitled to collect more based on OECD rules

So where does the competition issue arise? Are we taking tax from someone else for the same thing?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on August 30, 2016, 05:43:41 PM
Quote from: muppet on August 30, 2016, 05:04:19 PM
Quote from: trueblue1234 on August 30, 2016, 04:57:39 PM
If the competent authority is the Irish Revenue, why are they being told what they have to do by the EU Commission? And why would they have to follow the Commission's findings? Who has final jurisdiction?

This is an unfair competition ruling as far as I can see.

I would be interested to know if the basis of the investigation was a complaint from another company or country, or did the EU Commission just decide that there was unfair competition and investigate themselves.

The same Commissioner is after Google under the same law, but for different reasons. She thinks Google has too much access to info.
apple got prefenential treament. Paid 1% instead of 12.5%
Fg fully behind them. And will make cuts and tell people there is no choice
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on August 30, 2016, 05:47:17 PM
German inflation close to zero.
Deflation next stop
http://www.ft.com/fastft/2016/08/30/german-inflation-falls-unexpectedly-in-august/

That is what happens when you bail out bondholders
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on August 30, 2016, 08:03:03 PM
http://www.bbc.com/news (http://www.bbc.com/news)

BBC seem to think it is about the EU asserting its power over large corporations. That would be nice if a) it started with the banks and didn't shaft the Irish taxpayer and b) it didn't start by shafting Ireland first.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on August 30, 2016, 09:27:17 PM
Quote from: muppet on August 30, 2016, 08:03:03 PM
http://www.bbc.com/news (http://www.bbc.com/news)

BBC seem to think it is about the EU asserting its power over large corporations. That would be nice if a) it started with the banks and didn't shaft the Irish taxpayer and b) it didn't start by shafting Ireland first.


US corporate profits hit a record high as a percentage of GDP last year.
It is one of the main reasons the US is flirting with deflation.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2013/05/07/why-have-corporate-profits-been-rising-as-a-percentage-of-gdp-globalisation/#6771bef253f1

The Irish economic model was too good to be true for a long time. Ignore the local SME sector and plamas the FDI crowd who only employ something like 15% of workers. When TSHTF there was no help from FDI in terms of paying extra tax or lobbying.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Hound on August 30, 2016, 09:40:40 PM
Quote from: muppet on August 30, 2016, 05:27:26 PM
Quote from: Hound on August 30, 2016, 05:19:35 PM
Either way, Apple had their international technology and profits offshore and have paid no tax on it.

But Ireland's contention is that has nothing to do with Ireland. We collect tax on the Irish profits and aren't entitled to collect more based on OECD rules

So where does the competition issue arise? Are we taking tax from someone else for the same thing?
Sorry, but there's only a long answer to that!

Firstly you need to understand tax residence. While there have been rule changes in recent years, Ireland used to tax companies the same as individuals. i.e. it didnt matter where you were born, it only mattered where you lived. So for non-residents (no matter were born or incorporated) you are only taxable on your Irish income (whereas Irish residents are taxable on their worldwide income). The place of residence for a company is normally where that company is managed and controlled.

Most countries have a similar rule, with some exceptions, but the US is an outlier, in that it looks at companies in terms of where they are incorporated rather than where they are managed.

Back to Apple. Apple International (let's call it) is incorporated in Ireland. But it never had any Irish directors, and no board meetings were ever held in Ireland, so it was never managed from Ireland and never resident in Ireland. Apple US sold its international IP to Apple Intl. This amount would have been agreed with the IRS and tax paid in the US. But I guess the value was relatively low at the time as it was well before iPhones, etc. Apple Intl also pays an annual maintenance type fee to Apple US to make sure its technology is kept up to date - which in recent years has gone into the billions. Again, this would be reviewed by the IRS to make sure the US gets properly paid.

Apple Intl set up operations in Cork to do whatever it is they do in Cork and to act as the sales company for all of Europe (and Asia and Middle East I think too). This was an Irish branch for tax purposes. So the question then arises as to how much of Apple Intl overall profits should be allocated to its Irish branch, bearing in mind that the valuable IP is never located in Ireland. Apple presumably got some law firm or accounting firm to do a transfer pricing analysis to come up with what an appropriate return for the Irish branch should be. It's not necessary to get this approved by Irish Revenue, but best practice when big numbers are involved would be to get them to review and approve it, to avoid issues arising at a later date, and to get certainty.

So Apple and Irish Revenue came to an agreement on what a reasonable return for the Irish branch would be and those profits were taxed at 12.5% in Ireland. The balance of the profits are subject to tax wherever Head Office is resident, and as they are international profits of a US HQ group, they would also be subject to US tax when (if!) remitted to the US. But that's usually no concern of Irish Revenue, they are only concerned with what is taxable in Ireland.

Most companies with similar structures would have the Head Office resident in Cayman or Bermuda or some other 0% tax country. Apple went one step further by having Head Office as a "stateless" or "resident nowhere" company. They'd do this by moving around the directors meetings in different jursidictions, probably having most in the US where management/control isn't recognised. Personally I've never liked the nowhere resident concept, but from an Irish viewpoint all that really mattered was it wasn't resident in Ireland.

So what the EC have come up with is they say all the profits of Apple Intl should be taxed in Ireland. This goes against all OECD principles, given the IP was never in Ireland and the company was never Irish resident. They say it's state aid that Ireland agreed that only a portion of the profits should be taxed at 12.5% rather than taxing the full amount. Whereas Apple and Ireland will look to defend the position that this is a Foreign Company (for tax purposes) with an Irish branch and therefore only the profits arising from the Irish activities in Cork (and not from the valuable IP) can be taxed in Ireland. 

From a European perspective, each country that Apple has an office would be paid some kind of sales commission by Apple Intl, again based on OECD transfer pricing rules and I'm sure audited by most countries regularly. But Apple would remove all risk from those countries by guaranteeing a profit, albeit a small profit. So if Apple Intl has a bad year, Apple Intl makes a big loss and all the Apple Europe companies still make a small profit. But if things go well, Apple Intl gets the vast bulk of the profits. This element has not been part of the state aid investigation, but the EC has encouraged the European countries to re-look at the arrangements nonetheless. They basically said we know this part is none of our business but we're still going to stoke the fire. Which I think shows that at the end of the day this is very political.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on August 30, 2016, 10:26:29 PM
Ir is political because corporate profits have been increased by withholding payrises for years in the US to the point where the Fed can't generate economic growth. And Apple is the richest company in the US

"The challenge for Apple now is to ensure they manage consumer perception and avoid becoming the poster child for all things that are wrong with globalisation today," says Ben Wood, analyst at CCS Insight. Unlike Google and Amazon, which exist mainly in the virtual world, Apple – like Starbucks – has physical stores that protesters can picket. "This is something Apple need to avoid at all costs," he says.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on August 30, 2016, 10:53:19 PM
http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/convincing-voters-to-forgo-apple-s-13bn-will-not-be-easy-1.2773489

If the Alliance cannot agree to the appeal at this morning's Cabinet meeting, then this Government is probably over, sooner rather than later. If they can't agree this, you wouldn't give them much chance of agreeing a budget, and a government that can't budget can't govern
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on August 30, 2016, 10:58:47 PM
Thanks Hound for taking the time to write that. I have read various pieces of the argument today in different publications, but that is the most succinct I've seen.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on August 30, 2016, 11:13:20 PM
Thinking about this more, is the EU Commission demanding taxes be paid here that are arguably just as payable in the US? No matter how you look at it, wherever this tax is liable, this isn't really Ireland's money? Would that be fair to say??

Is it now the case that the unelected EU Commission has its own agenda with us on taxation and is happy to embarrass us on the world stage as it pursues its row with large corporations?

Bearing in mind the only time we had leverage during the banking crisis, we never used it, but I think we have massive leverage in Brexit. If ever there was a time to look the EU mandarins straight in the eye and tell them to shove it, surely it is now?

Another part of me does want to kick the large corporations. But I think the EU and the ECB are ahead of them as it is they who keep marching us to the firing line.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Declan on August 31, 2016, 08:23:36 AM
EU Commission: Spend €64bn on banks
Government: ok
EC: You can't abolish water charges
Gov: ok
EC: Accept €13bn from Apple
Gov: NO WAY!
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: armaghniac on August 31, 2016, 09:50:47 AM
Quote from: Declan on August 31, 2016, 08:23:36 AM
EU Commission: Spend €64bn on banks
Government: ok
EC: You can't abolish water charges
Gov: ok
EC: Accept €13bn from Apple
Gov: NO WAY!

I think it is fair comment that it is a bit odd that the EU doesn't see any competition implications in bailing out Irish bondholders and not Cypriot bondholders.

In relation to water,  I wouldn't favour water charges being imposed retrospectively for 10 years. It has to questioned if this retrospective application is proper administration.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on August 31, 2016, 10:05:06 AM
Quote from: muppet on August 30, 2016, 11:13:20 PM
Thinking about this more, is the EU Commission demanding taxes be paid here that are arguably just as payable in the US? No matter how you look at it, wherever this tax is liable, this isn't really Ireland's money? Would that be fair to say??

Is it now the case that the unelected EU Commission has its own agenda with us on taxation and is happy to embarrass us on the world stage as it pursues its row with large corporations?

Bearing in mind the only time we had leverage during the banking crisis, we never used it, but I think we have massive leverage in Brexit. If ever there was a time to look the EU mandarins straight in the eye and tell them to shove it, surely it is now?

Another part of me does want to kick the large corporations. But I think the EU and the ECB are ahead of them as it is they who keep marching us to the firing line.

90% of Apple's non US profits go through Ireland.
The EC ruling pertains to the Single Market. Can't have special terms for one company
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on August 31, 2016, 10:07:51 AM
Quote from: Declan on August 31, 2016, 08:23:36 AM
EU Commission: Spend €64bn on banks
Government: ok
EC: You can't abolish water charges
Gov: ok
EC: Accept €13bn from Apple
Gov: NO WAY!
FF guaranteed the banks and left the country reliant on the kindness of strangers

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/afca6780-92e0-11dd-98b5-0000779fd18c.html
The gold medal for selfishness may once more be given to the Irish, who have followed the ingratitude of their No vote on the Lisbon treaty with absolute contempt towards the search for a collective solution to the financial crisis. The European spirit is low and a "European political will" is lacking

The Government is again putting the interest of MNCs before that of the voters
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Jim_Murphy_74 on August 31, 2016, 10:57:01 AM
Quote from: muppet on August 30, 2016, 11:13:20 PM
Thinking about this more, is the EU Commission demanding taxes be paid here that are arguably just as payable in the US? No matter how you look at it, wherever this tax is liable, this isn't really Ireland's money? Would that be fair to say??

It would seem so from the statement.  Basically they are saying it is Ireland's job to collect it but that it is unclear whose money it is.  Apple have paid tax on Irish sales so other EU countries could make a grab for the rest of the takings.

Also if we accept this without some kind of fight, all multi-nationals will have to carry a new liability: 

Regardless of tax paid to Irish Revenue this would set the precedent that European Commission can retrospectively change the bill.  So an acknowledgement from revenue is no longer worth the paper it is written on. 

Regardless of populist nonsense we need to ensure that judgement doesn't create that precedent and if it does we have to fight this one big time.

/Jim.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Hound on August 31, 2016, 11:15:35 AM
Statement from the Revenue Commissioners (Brian Cody's brother!):

Speaking today (30/08/2016), after the EU Commission announced its decision in its State aid investigation into the tax treatment of certain Irish branches of Apple companies, Niall Cody, Chairman of the Revenue Commissioners, said that Revenue has cooperated fully with the Commission's investigation.

"We have provided all relevant information and explanations to the Commission. These demonstrate that Revenue collected the full amount of tax due from Apple in accordance with Irish tax law.

The issue of international tax planning, involving mismatches between different countries' tax rules, is well known and is the subject of the OECD BEPS Project."

The Chairman went on to explain that "under Irish tax law, non-resident companies are chargeable to Irish corporation tax only on the profits attributable to their Irish branches by reference to the facts and circumstances. The profits of non-resident companies that are not generated by their Irish branches – such as profits from technology, design and marketing that are generated outside Ireland – cannot be charged with Irish tax under Irish tax law."

Mr. Cody pointed out that Apple has confirmed on the public record that the relevant companies were not tax-resident in Ireland, and went on to say "While I cannot otherwise comment on the specific facts of this case, I can confirm that -
- there was no departure from the applicable Irish tax law by Revenue;
- there was no preference shown in applying that law; and
- the full tax due was paid in accordance with the law."

http://www.revenue.ie/en/press/2016/pr-300816-state-aid-investigation.html
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Jim_Murphy_74 on August 31, 2016, 11:33:59 AM
Quote from: Hound on August 31, 2016, 11:15:35 AM
Statement from the Revenue Commissioners (Brian Cody's brother!):

Speaking today (30/08/2016), after the EU Commission announced its decision in its State aid investigation into the tax treatment of certain Irish branches of Apple companies, Niall Cody, Chairman of the Revenue Commissioners, said that Revenue has cooperated fully with the Commission's investigation.

"We have provided all relevant information and explanations to the Commission. These demonstrate that Revenue collected the full amount of tax due from Apple in accordance with Irish tax law.

The issue of international tax planning, involving mismatches between different countries' tax rules, is well known and is the subject of the OECD BEPS Project."

The Chairman went on to explain that "under Irish tax law, non-resident companies are chargeable to Irish corporation tax only on the profits attributable to their Irish branches by reference to the facts and circumstances. The profits of non-resident companies that are not generated by their Irish branches – such as profits from technology, design and marketing that are generated outside Ireland – cannot be charged with Irish tax under Irish tax law."

Mr. Cody pointed out that Apple has confirmed on the public record that the relevant companies were not tax-resident in Ireland, and went on to say "While I cannot otherwise comment on the specific facts of this case, I can confirm that -
- there was no departure from the applicable Irish tax law by Revenue;
- there was no preference shown in applying that law; and
- the full tax due was paid in accordance with the law."

http://www.revenue.ie/en/press/2016/pr-300816-state-aid-investigation.html

So legally we can't comply with this judgement?  At least without bringing in legislation?

/Jim.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on August 31, 2016, 11:35:17 AM
Quote from: Jim_Murphy_74 on August 31, 2016, 10:57:01 AM
Quote from: muppet on August 30, 2016, 11:13:20 PM
Thinking about this more, is the EU Commission demanding taxes be paid here that are arguably just as payable in the US? No matter how you look at it, wherever this tax is liable, this isn't really Ireland's money? Would that be fair to say??

It would seem so from the statement.  Basically they are saying it is Ireland's job to collect it but that it is unclear whose money it is.  Apple have paid tax on Irish sales so other EU countries could make a grab for the rest of the takings.

Also if we accept this without some kind of fight, all multi-nationals will have to carry a new liability: 

Regardless of tax paid to Irish Revenue this would set the precedent that European Commission can retrospectively change the bill.  So an acknowledgement from revenue is no longer worth the paper it is written on. 

Regardless of populist nonsense we need to ensure that judgement doesn't create that precedent and if it does we have to fight this one big time.

/Jim.
/Jim

Do you want to benefit from the Single Market or not? You can join the Brits outside if you want.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on August 31, 2016, 11:41:59 AM
Quote from: Hound on August 31, 2016, 11:15:35 AM
Statement from the Revenue Commissioners (Brian Cody's brother!):

Speaking today (30/08/2016), after the EU Commission announced its decision in its State aid investigation into the tax treatment of certain Irish branches of Apple companies, Niall Cody, Chairman of the Revenue Commissioners, said that Revenue has cooperated fully with the Commission's investigation.

"We have provided all relevant information and explanations to the Commission. These demonstrate that Revenue collected the full amount of tax due from Apple in accordance with Irish tax law.

The issue of international tax planning, involving mismatches between different countries' tax rules, is well known and is the subject of the OECD BEPS Project."

The Chairman went on to explain that "under Irish tax law, non-resident companies are chargeable to Irish corporation tax only on the profits attributable to their Irish branches by reference to the facts and circumstances. The profits of non-resident companies that are not generated by their Irish branches – such as profits from technology, design and marketing that are generated outside Ireland – cannot be charged with Irish tax under Irish tax law."

Mr. Cody pointed out that Apple has confirmed on the public record that the relevant companies were not tax-resident in Ireland, and went on to say "While I cannot otherwise comment on the specific facts of this case, I can confirm that -
- there was no departure from the applicable Irish tax law by Revenue;
- there was no preference shown in applying that law; and
- the full tax due was paid in accordance with the law."

http://www.revenue.ie/en/press/2016/pr-300816-state-aid-investigation.html
The issue is the rate. Who set the rate of 1%
The Government is completely exposed on this. You can't take part in a single market and give preferential treatment to certain companies
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: weareros on August 31, 2016, 11:45:54 AM
Quote from: seafoid on August 31, 2016, 11:35:17 AM
Quote from: Jim_Murphy_74 on August 31, 2016, 10:57:01 AM
Quote from: muppet on August 30, 2016, 11:13:20 PM
Thinking about this more, is the EU Commission demanding taxes be paid here that are arguably just as payable in the US? No matter how you look at it, wherever this tax is liable, this isn't really Ireland's money? Would that be fair to say??

It would seem so from the statement.  Basically they are saying it is Ireland's job to collect it but that it is unclear whose money it is.  Apple have paid tax on Irish sales so other EU countries could make a grab for the rest of the takings.

Also if we accept this without some kind of fight, all multi-nationals will have to carry a new liability: 

Regardless of tax paid to Irish Revenue this would set the precedent that European Commission can retrospectively change the bill.  So an acknowledgement from revenue is no longer worth the paper it is written on. 

Regardless of populist nonsense we need to ensure that judgement doesn't create that precedent and if it does we have to fight this one big time.

/Jim.
/Jim

Do you want to benefit from the Single Market or not? You can join the Brits outside if you want.

We can't have it both ways. The benefits of being a multinational tax haven with our own tax laws enable us to have these companies on our shores providing good IT jobs. If we are going to collect high taxes for our masters in Europe on rev earned elsewhere then these non-Irish companies will set up elsewhere. The U.K is already flashing eyes their way.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Jim_Murphy_74 on August 31, 2016, 11:58:00 AM
Quote from: seafoid on August 31, 2016, 11:35:17 AM
Do you want to benefit from the Single Market or not? You can join the Brits outside if you want.

My understanding of a Single Market doesn't include EU commission either


So firstly we need to find out which of the above they are doing and if they legally can do that.

Secondly if they can do either, then we have to process for this and it must be timebound.

Otherwise any company, in any EU state must indefinitely carry an unknown liability on their books, in case the EU decides to retrospectively change their tax bill for an arbitrary number of years.

If the EU single market means the above, it won't be me or Ireland that wants out, it will be every state.

/Jim
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on August 31, 2016, 12:04:57 PM
Quote from: Jim_Murphy_74 on August 31, 2016, 11:58:00 AM
Quote from: seafoid on August 31, 2016, 11:35:17 AM
Do you want to benefit from the Single Market or not? You can join the Brits outside if you want.

My understanding of a Single Market doesn't include EU commission either


  • Setting tax laws for member states
  • Unilaterally telling a member stated they haven't implemented their laws

So firstly we need to find out which of the above they are doing and if they legally can do that.

Secondly if they can do either, then we have to process for this and it must be timebound.

Otherwise any company, in any EU state must indefinitely carry an unknown liability on their books, in case the EU decides to retrospectively change their tax bill for an arbitrary number of years.

If the EU single market means the above, it won't be me or Ireland that wants out, it will be every state.

/Jim
Jim they wouldn't have to carry a liability. It would be a credit.
Ireland's rate of corp tax is 12.5%. Not 1%.
Pandering to tax avoidance so Apple can fund buybacks is not coherent.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Hound on August 31, 2016, 12:08:27 PM
Quote from: seafoid on August 31, 2016, 11:41:59 AM
The issue is the rate. Who set the rate of 1%
The Government is completely exposed on this. You can't take part in a single market and give preferential treatment to certain companies
There is no 1% rate seafoid.

Profits that arise as a result of Irish activities are taxed at 12.5%

Profits from technology, design and marketing that are generated outside Ireland are taxed wherever the company that owns such technology, etc. is tax resident. That turned out to be a 0% location. Those profits will be subject to 35%+ US tax when remitted to the US (so Apple keeps the cash offshore and avoids bringing it back to the US - probably hoping for another US amnesty on such profits). The US tax authorities allowed Apple to transfer that technology from the US to a company that was not tax resident anywhere.

All Ireland can do is tax profits that are within the charge to Irish tax - and they always tax such profits at 12.5%
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on August 31, 2016, 12:22:51 PM
Quote from: Hound on August 31, 2016, 12:08:27 PM
Quote from: seafoid on August 31, 2016, 11:41:59 AM
The issue is the rate. Who set the rate of 1%
The Government is completely exposed on this. You can't take part in a single market and give preferential treatment to certain companies
There is no 1% rate seafoid.

Profits that arise as a result of Irish activities are taxed at 12.5%

Profits from technology, design and marketing that are generated outside Ireland are taxed wherever the company that owns such technology, etc. is tax resident. That turned out to be a 0% location. Those profits will be subject to 35%+ US tax when remitted to the US (so Apple keeps the cash offshore and avoids bringing it back to the US - probably hoping for another US amnesty on such profits). The US tax authorities allowed Apple to transfer that technology from the US to a company that was not tax resident anywhere.

All Ireland can do is tax profits that are within the charge to Irish tax - and they always tax such profits at 12.5%
via FT

Apple has designed its structure so that its lightly-taxed Irish companies do not have a taxable presence — or "permanent establishment" — in the countries where it sells its goods. This type of structure has come under intensifying scrutiny from tax authorities which argue it is used to shift profits abroad.

The question is whether this is appropriate in the Single market
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Jim_Murphy_74 on August 31, 2016, 12:24:02 PM
Quote from: seafoid on August 31, 2016, 12:04:57 PM

Jim they wouldn't have to carry a liability

If they do tax returns each year, they can't regard them as closed because the revenue say so. At any time the European Commission can say returns are wrong and order a retrospective payment.  How is that not a liability?

/Jim.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Hound on August 31, 2016, 12:38:13 PM
Quote from: seafoid on August 31, 2016, 12:22:51 PM
Quote from: Hound on August 31, 2016, 12:08:27 PM
Quote from: seafoid on August 31, 2016, 11:41:59 AM
The issue is the rate. Who set the rate of 1%
The Government is completely exposed on this. You can't take part in a single market and give preferential treatment to certain companies
There is no 1% rate seafoid.

Profits that arise as a result of Irish activities are taxed at 12.5%

Profits from technology, design and marketing that are generated outside Ireland are taxed wherever the company that owns such technology, etc. is tax resident. That turned out to be a 0% location. Those profits will be subject to 35%+ US tax when remitted to the US (so Apple keeps the cash offshore and avoids bringing it back to the US - probably hoping for another US amnesty on such profits). The US tax authorities allowed Apple to transfer that technology from the US to a company that was not tax resident anywhere.

All Ireland can do is tax profits that are within the charge to Irish tax - and they always tax such profits at 12.5%
via FT

Apple has designed its structure so that its lightly-taxed Irish companies do not have a taxable presence — or "permanent establishment" — in the countries where it sells its goods. This type of structure has come under intensifying scrutiny from tax authorities which argue it is used to shift profits abroad.

The question is whether this is appropriate in the Single market
You've moved on to a completely different point now.

Most US groups will set up a European sales principal company, in Ireland or UK or Netherlands or Switzerland or Belgium or somewhere else.

In Apple's case they chose Ireland and so route all their sales through Ireland (as do so many US MNCs located in Ireland). They pay their subisidaries in Europe a commission for any sales in their country. The European subs are guaranteed a relatively small fixed profit (a % of sales or a % of costs), take no risks, and make virtually no important decisions.

Whether this is approrpriate in a Single Market going forward is a question that is currently under review. But in that past these arrangements have been done under OECD principles, many of the main members of the OECD being the big countries in Europe. They set those rules, not Ireland, not the US multi-nationals. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Declan on August 31, 2016, 12:39:05 PM
Nobel prize winning economist Prof Joseph Stiglitz says the Irish government is wrong to appeal the EU decision on Apple and its tax obligations.
He described comments by Minister Richard Bruton on RTE's Today with Sean O'Rourke Show, in defence of the government's position, as 'utter balderdash.'
On the same programme Prof Stiglitz said: "the fact is that you were encouraging tax avoidance, you knew it.
"Let's not make any pretence about it, you got a few jobs at the cost of stealing revenues from countries around the world. That's the kind of activity that has to be stopped."
He said that the question now was: "what are the rules of the game about tax competition, about state aid and it's very clear if a company says that they got revenue associated with Ireland, you have to pay a tax on it.
"Whether that income was correctly attributed to Ireland is another matter. If Apple is saying that this is Irish income, you have an obligation to impose taxes on income that they say originated in Ireland.
"Apple is claiming that the income was associated with activities, that's why they said they could book it to an Irish subsidiary. Can they book it to a subsidiary for activities not occurring in Ireland? The issue is, if they book it to Ireland should there be an Irish tax?
"That's what the issue is. They were booking it to an Irish subsidiary and they were not paying taxes."
Prof Stiglitz said he found it mystifying that Ireland didn't "just pocket that €13billion and use it for the enormous hardship that the people of Ireland have had to face.
"The argument that you will lose lots of jobs is absolute nonsense. It's a new world, it's very clear that the rules of the game have changed, under those new rules Ireland will have to compete on the basis of going forward, what it can provide economically.
"I think Ireland can provide a lot - it has a well trained labour force, a disciplined labour force, and that is the basis on which countries should compete, with infrastructure.
"This idea that all these people will leave and their jobs will disappear is a vote of lack of confidence in Ireland. I'd rather have a vote of confidence in Ireland and say, maybe a few people engaged in cheating, relatively few, but nothing to compensate for the loss of the €13billion."
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: joemamas on August 31, 2016, 12:45:43 PM
Quote from: Declan on August 31, 2016, 12:39:05 PM
Nobel prize winning economist Prof Joseph Stiglitz says the Irish government is wrong to appeal the EU decision on Apple and its tax obligations.
He described comments by Minister Richard Bruton on RTE's Today with Sean O'Rourke Show, in defence of the government's position, as 'utter balderdash.'
On the same programme Prof Stiglitz said: "the fact is that you were encouraging tax avoidance, you knew it.
"Let's not make any pretence about it, you got a few jobs at the cost of stealing revenues from countries around the world. That's the kind of activity that has to be stopped."
He said that the question now was: "what are the rules of the game about tax competition, about state aid and it's very clear if a company says that they got revenue associated with Ireland, you have to pay a tax on it.
"Whether that income was correctly attributed to Ireland is another matter. If Apple is saying that this is Irish income, you have an obligation to impose taxes on income that they say originated in Ireland.
"Apple is claiming that the income was associated with activities, that's why they said they could book it to an Irish subsidiary. Can they book it to a subsidiary for activities not occurring in Ireland? The issue is, if they book it to Ireland should there be an Irish tax?
"That's what the issue is. They were booking it to an Irish subsidiary and they were not paying taxes."
Prof Stiglitz said he found it mystifying that Ireland didn't "just pocket that €13billion and use it for the enormous hardship that the people of Ireland have had to face.
"The argument that you will lose lots of jobs is absolute nonsense. It's a new world, it's very clear that the rules of the game have changed, under those new rules Ireland will have to compete on the basis of going forward, what it can provide economically.
"I think Ireland can provide a lot - it has a well trained labour force, a disciplined labour force, and that is the basis on which countries should compete, with infrastructure.
"This idea that all these people will leave and their jobs will disappear is a vote of lack of confidence in Ireland. I'd rather have a vote of confidence in Ireland and say, maybe a few people engaged in cheating, relatively few, but nothing to compensate for the loss of the €13billion."

First and foremost, I am a capitalist, I like to see people who invest their time and money into an idea or a business, get a good return. Having said that, it is very difficult to argue with the above.
Seriously, if their total taxable rate was 1% then something smells big time, especially given corporate tax rates elsewhere.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Hound on August 31, 2016, 12:57:12 PM
Quote from: joemamas on August 31, 2016, 12:45:43 PM
Quote from: Declan on August 31, 2016, 12:39:05 PM
Nobel prize winning economist Prof Joseph Stiglitz says the Irish government is wrong to appeal the EU decision on Apple and its tax obligations.
He described comments by Minister Richard Bruton on RTE's Today with Sean O'Rourke Show, in defence of the government's position, as 'utter balderdash.'
On the same programme Prof Stiglitz said: "the fact is that you were encouraging tax avoidance, you knew it.
"Let's not make any pretence about it, you got a few jobs at the cost of stealing revenues from countries around the world. That's the kind of activity that has to be stopped."
He said that the question now was: "what are the rules of the game about tax competition, about state aid and it's very clear if a company says that they got revenue associated with Ireland, you have to pay a tax on it.
"Whether that income was correctly attributed to Ireland is another matter. If Apple is saying that this is Irish income, you have an obligation to impose taxes on income that they say originated in Ireland.
"Apple is claiming that the income was associated with activities, that's why they said they could book it to an Irish subsidiary. Can they book it to a subsidiary for activities not occurring in Ireland? The issue is, if they book it to Ireland should there be an Irish tax?
"That's what the issue is. They were booking it to an Irish subsidiary and they were not paying taxes."
Prof Stiglitz said he found it mystifying that Ireland didn't "just pocket that €13billion and use it for the enormous hardship that the people of Ireland have had to face.
"The argument that you will lose lots of jobs is absolute nonsense. It's a new world, it's very clear that the rules of the game have changed, under those new rules Ireland will have to compete on the basis of going forward, what it can provide economically.
"I think Ireland can provide a lot - it has a well trained labour force, a disciplined labour force, and that is the basis on which countries should compete, with infrastructure.
"This idea that all these people will leave and their jobs will disappear is a vote of lack of confidence in Ireland. I'd rather have a vote of confidence in Ireland and say, maybe a few people engaged in cheating, relatively few, but nothing to compensate for the loss of the €13billion."

First and foremost, I am a capitalist, I like to see people who invest their time and money into an idea or a business, get a good return. Having said that, it is very difficult to argue with the above.
Seriously, if their total taxable rate was 1% then something smells big time, especially given corporate tax rates elsewhere.
As I said above joe, there is categorically no 1% tax rate.

The problem with "Nobel prize winning economist Prof Joseph Stiglitz" is that he is talking through his arse.

Apple did not book anything through an Irish tax resident subisidiary. The subsidiary was not resident in Ireland. It's like someone saying we give Dermot Desmond a special deal on his taxes because he's resident in Monaco (or wherever it is) and he only pays tax on the small bit of his income that directly relates to Ireland.

Under Irish tax law as it was then, people and companies can choose where they are tax resident, so long as they follow the prescribed rules as outlined in tax legislation. The Apple companies were not Irish resident. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Hound on August 31, 2016, 01:14:40 PM
Quote from: joemamas on August 31, 2016, 12:45:43 PM
First and foremost, I am a capitalist, I like to see people who invest their time and money into an idea or a business, get a good return. Having said that, it is very difficult to argue with the above.
Seriously, if their total taxable rate was 1% then something smells big time, especially given corporate tax rates elsewhere.

The other side of the coin is that there is certainly a 0% rate out there in Cayman, Bermuda, etc that many US MNCs use to shelter a large portion of their international profits. But it is US rules that allow them to do that and it doesn't save them any Irish tax.

The famous "double Irish" only worked because of US tax rules. A German, UK, French, Canadian, Australian, etc, etc HQ company could never use the "double Irish". Only the US could use it. 

Most US MNCs are now planning to get out of havens or have already left. There is a new reporting requirement coming in shortly that will require every group to show publicly exactly where there profits are booked - and most are afraid of the bad publicity they will get when a haven is seen having massive profits.

Ironically, it is believed that Apple has already moved their technology and other IP to Ireland, hence the recent unexpected bump in Ireland's corporation tax revenues.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: joemamas on August 31, 2016, 01:20:22 PM
Quote from: Hound on August 31, 2016, 01:14:40 PM
Quote from: joemamas on August 31, 2016, 12:45:43 PM
First and foremost, I am a capitalist, I like to see people who invest their time and money into an idea or a business, get a good return. Having said that, it is very difficult to argue with the above.
Seriously, if their total taxable rate was 1% then something smells big time, especially given corporate tax rates elsewhere.

The other side of the coin is that there is certainly a 0% rate out there in Cayman, Bermuda, etc that many US MNCs use to shelter a large portion of their international profits. But it is US rules that allow them to do that and it doesn't save them any Irish tax.

The famous "double Irish" only worked because of US tax rules. A German, UK, French, Canadian, Australian, etc, etc HQ company could never use the "double Irish". Only the US could use it. 

Most US MNCs are now planning to get out of havens or have already left. There is a new reporting requirement coming in shortly that will require every group to show publicly exactly where there profits are booked - and most are afraid of the bad publicity they will get when a haven is seen having massive profits.

Ironically, it is believed that Apple has already moved their technology and other IP to Ireland, hence the recent unexpected bump in Ireland's corporation tax revenues.

Thank you for the detailed response, just read Q&A on p3 of indo, also pretty detailed
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: trileacman on August 31, 2016, 01:34:27 PM
Quote from: Declan on August 31, 2016, 12:39:05 PM
Nobel prize winning economist Prof Joseph Stiglitz says the Irish government is wrong to appeal the EU decision on Apple and its tax obligations.
"Let's not make any pretence about it, you got a few jobs at the cost of stealing revenues from countries around the world. That's the kind of activity that has to be stopped."


f**k that cnut. We got shafted regularly by the world powers down the years and centuries. Boo hoo if we managed to f**k them out of some tax so we could make some employment in Ireland. They'd rather we were all still exporting potatoes and Aran sweaters and they were taking the cream off the blue chip companies.

Stiglitz doesn't give a rats arse about the Irish people or their financial situation, I'd say he was ravenous to see us get fucked in the bailout negotiations and he only really cares that this deal we had with Apple is f**king the yanks out of some taxes.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: armaghniac on August 31, 2016, 01:52:05 PM
The point here is that when Ireland sought to attract multinationals, it recognised that the Irish part would be only one component of a global supply chain. So it had a simple proposition, come here and we will charge you 12.5% on your activities in Ireland and we will not make life difficult for you by also trying to charge you for stuff not in Ireland. Basically the value of Apple should be taxed in the US where they attribute most of the value to the design of their kit. The US is providing "state aid" to its multinationals by turning a blind eye when the profits somehow end up in the Caymans and never make it back to the US.

If Ireland was letting Ryanair be based in Ireland, while allowing their profits to all end up in the Bahamas, then we would be at fault. In this case it is largely the US that has been at fault.

With recent work in the OECD, this kind of thing is diminishing now. I am very suspect of this backdating.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on August 31, 2016, 02:01:40 PM
Quote from: trileacman on August 31, 2016, 01:34:27 PM
Quote from: Declan on August 31, 2016, 12:39:05 PM
Nobel prize winning economist Prof Joseph Stiglitz says the Irish government is wrong to appeal the EU decision on Apple and its tax obligations.
"Let's not make any pretence about it, you got a few jobs at the cost of stealing revenues from countries around the world. That's the kind of activity that has to be stopped."


f**k that cnut. We got shafted regularly by the world powers down the years and centuries. Boo hoo if we managed to f**k them out of some tax so we could make some employment in Ireland. They'd rather we were all still exporting potatoes and Aran sweaters and they were taking the cream off the blue chip companies.

Stiglitz doesn't give a rats arse about the Irish people or their financial situation, I'd say he was ravenous to see us get fucked in the bailout negotiations and he only really cares that this deal we had with Apple is f**king the yanks out of some taxes.

Surely the people would like 13bn
Ireland is a tech cluster. If Apple left (and they probably won't) there would still be serious demand for the workforce
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: TabClear on August 31, 2016, 02:20:04 PM
Quote from: seafoid on August 31, 2016, 02:01:40 PM
Quote from: trileacman on August 31, 2016, 01:34:27 PM
Quote from: Declan on August 31, 2016, 12:39:05 PM
Nobel prize winning economist Prof Joseph Stiglitz says the Irish government is wrong to appeal the EU decision on Apple and its tax obligations.
"Let's not make any pretence about it, you got a few jobs at the cost of stealing revenues from countries around the world. That's the kind of activity that has to be stopped."


f**k that cnut. We got shafted regularly by the world powers down the years and centuries. Boo hoo if we managed to f**k them out of some tax so we could make some employment in Ireland. They'd rather we were all still exporting potatoes and Aran sweaters and they were taking the cream off the blue chip companies.

Stiglitz doesn't give a rats arse about the Irish people or their financial situation, I'd say he was ravenous to see us get fucked in the bailout negotiations and he only really cares that this deal we had with Apple is f**king the yanks out of some taxes.

Surely the people would like 13bn
Ireland is a tech cluster. If Apple left (and they probably won't) there would still be serious demand for the workforce

Possibly. But the danger is that other tech giants and pharmaceutical companies start to view irish investment as riskier and more expensive when evaluating investment appraisals.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: magpie seanie on August 31, 2016, 02:57:13 PM
The problem with this case is so many people have not even got the most basic understanding of tax law. The old adage of "if it seems to good to be true it probably is" applies here.

I read a quote that sum up the situation perfectly - "Not to appeal the case would imply acceptance of a loss of sovereignty"

The famed billions are not due to Ireland under tax law. The EU is acting beyond its powers and will lose this appeal (which I think they know). It's typical bully boy tactics and designed to embarrass Ireland and force changes to our CT regime including a rate reduction. I'm amazed but delighted that it look like FG and FF are standing up to them on this. I'm equally disappointed at the short-sightedness and stupidity of SF, SD's, PBP and others in opposing an appeal. This is a red line issue regarding our sovereignty. We haven't a lot left but setting our tax law is one. We simply cannot concede this.

As I understand it this "loophole" regarding stateless companies has now been closed so no longer applies. The 1% argument is a total red herring.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: TabClear on August 31, 2016, 03:03:46 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on August 31, 2016, 02:57:13 PM
The problem with this case is so many people have not even got the most basic understanding of tax law. The old adage of "if it seems to good to be true it probably is" applies here.

I read a quote that sum up the situation perfectly - "Not to appeal the case would imply acceptance of a loss of sovereignty"

The famed billions are not due to Ireland under tax law. The EU is acting beyond its powers and will lose this appeal (which I think they know). It's typical bully boy tactics and designed to embarrass Ireland and force changes to our CT regime including a rate reduction. I'm amazed but delighted that it look like FG and FF are standing up to them on this. I'm equally disappointed at the short-sightedness and stupidity of SF, SD's, PBP and others in opposing an appeal. This is a red line issue regarding our sovereignty. We haven't a lot left but setting our tax law is one. We simply cannot concede this.

As I understand it this "loophole" regarding stateless companies has now been closed so no longer applies. The 1% argument is a total red herring.

Spot on. Britain had monetary policy options around interest rates and quantitative easing.  You can argue how successful these are but they are there.  If ROI cannot set tax rates there is very little left in the arsenal not controlled from Europe.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Canalman on August 31, 2016, 03:17:06 PM
Maybe I am reading this wrong, but I think the Commission's argument is not about our low tax rate but that Apple got a particular "sweetheart deal" above and beyond our low CT rate.
That is its gripe I think  in that it was according to them a not allowed state aid .

By the way, every other country in the EU is at this state aid mallarkey, but when you,  as Ireland is,  severely weakened in owing alot of money, the sharks will pounce.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: theskull1 on August 31, 2016, 03:36:04 PM
Yes what they've been doing doesnt pass the smell test. The very least Ireland can do is highlight that similar arrangements are in place in other member states.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Declan on August 31, 2016, 03:37:18 PM
QuoteMaybe I am reading this wrong, but I think the Commission's argument is not about our low tax rate but that Apple got a particular "sweetheart deal" above and beyond our low CT rate. 

That's my reading of it as well
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Jim_Murphy_74 on August 31, 2016, 03:59:07 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on August 31, 2016, 02:57:13 PM
The famed billions are not due to Ireland under tax law

Very relevant.  We have the EU commission now either unilaterally changing our laws or else questioning how our state agencies implemented them.

Dangerous stuff.  Even if we accept this taking of our sovereignty

Whatever about AAA/PBP mob, it is beyond me that Shinners are not at least acknowledging this issue.

/Jim.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: ashman on August 31, 2016, 04:11:26 PM
Quote from: Jim_Murphy_74 on August 31, 2016, 03:59:07 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on August 31, 2016, 02:57:13 PM
The famed billions are not due to Ireland under tax law

Very relevant.  We have the EU commission now either unilaterally changing our laws or else questioning how our state agencies implemented them.

Dangerous stuff.  Even if we accept this taking of our sovereignty

Whatever about AAA/PBP mob, it is beyond me that Shinners are not at least acknowledging this issue.

/Jim.

The Shinners see this as a chance to attack FF after losing ground to them in last year.  That said if they were in power they would be doing no different to FG and FF.  This could bite them badly yet as they could well be in govt in 26 Cos much quicker than you think.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: trileacman on August 31, 2016, 04:34:18 PM
Quote from: Canalman on August 31, 2016, 03:17:06 PM
Maybe I am reading this wrong, but I think the Commission's argument is not about our low tax rate but that Apple got a particular "sweetheart deal" above and beyond our low CT rate.
That is its gripe I think  in that it was according to them a not allowed state aid .

By the way, every other country in the EU is at this state aid mallarkey, but when you,  as Ireland is,  severely weakened in owing alot of money, the sharks will pounce.

No your reading it wrong, that's the way the EU, SF and PBP are trying to spin it. Imagine SF and PBP taking the EU stance, talk about selling out your country to gain a few red C poll points.

The government here simply tax Apple on their business dealings here and not their total worldwide share. The EU think we should be taxing Apple on their international dealings in total. The government are right to contend it and the EU will lose on appeal. What we are doing is not illegal but it might not be immoral. But as I said previously in international dealings f**k morals, not like anyone else is using them.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: armaghniac on August 31, 2016, 05:46:46 PM
The Shinners should pay more attention to Michael O'Leary and stop licking Brussels rear end.

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/apple-tax-row-government-should-tell-eu-to-fk-off-michael-oleary-35010094.html
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Declan on September 01, 2016, 01:00:13 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CrQ_AQxUMAEDTFw.jpg:large)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on September 01, 2016, 02:06:34 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on August 31, 2016, 02:57:13 PM
The problem with this case is so many people have not even got the most basic understanding of tax law. The old adage of "if it seems to good to be true it probably is" applies here.

I read a quote that sum up the situation perfectly - "Not to appeal the case would imply acceptance of a loss of sovereignty"

The famed billions are not due to Ireland under tax law. The EU is acting beyond its powers and will lose this appeal (which I think they know). It's typical bully boy tactics and designed to embarrass Ireland and force changes to our CT regime including a rate reduction. I'm amazed but delighted that it look like FG and FF are standing up to them on this. I'm equally disappointed at the short-sightedness and stupidity of SF, SD's, PBP and others in opposing an appeal. This is a red line issue regarding our sovereignty. We haven't a lot left but setting our tax law is one. We simply cannot concede this.

As I understand it this "loophole" regarding stateless companies has now been closed so no longer applies. The 1% argument is a total red herring.

Nail on the head.

How can Ireland be entirely responsible for taxing Apple's non-US revenue, yet the Commission clearly states that other EU countries might have a claim on some of the €13bn?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on September 01, 2016, 02:51:49 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on August 31, 2016, 05:46:46 PM
The Shinners should pay more attention to Michael O'Leary and stop licking Brussels rear end.

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/apple-tax-row-government-should-tell-eu-to-fk-off-michael-oleary-35010094.html
OLeary is a rentagob for the 1%. He should STFU
Ryanair prices were down 9% compared to expectations of 6%. That is called deflation.
Deflation is caused by the venality of the 1%
It is not good for Ryanair.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on September 05, 2016, 07:11:31 AM

There is no point in reading the papers or watching telly if you want to understand the Apple issue.
Brexit has changed the game. The Brits were all for tax avoidance.

http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=66347
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on September 13, 2016, 12:07:44 AM
http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/0912/816030-ecb-non-performing-mortgages/ (http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/0912/816030-ecb-non-performing-mortgages/)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on September 13, 2016, 07:13:56 AM
Quote from: muppet on September 13, 2016, 12:07:44 AM
http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/0912/816030-ecb-non-performing-mortgages/ (http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/0912/816030-ecb-non-performing-mortgages/)

"For all the money we done paid to all these banks we could have recapitalised the Banking system. why didn't we do that? Why ain't that a good idea ? "

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zOZnRUZKf48

But Draghi decided to pump QE to the already rich. So now we have a bond bubble and
the banks are still loaded with NPLs. And because rates are close to zero they can't make money. And the customers have no money. And that's across Europe.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: highorlow on September 13, 2016, 09:01:25 AM
QuoteBut Draghi decided to pump QE to the already rich. So now we have a bond bubble and
the banks are still loaded with NPLs. And because rates are close to zero they can't make money. And the customers have no money. And that's across Europe.

Draghi was better to just put €10k into everyones bank account across Europe.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on September 13, 2016, 09:10:58 AM
Quote from: highorlow on September 13, 2016, 09:01:25 AM
QuoteBut Draghi decided to pump QE to the already rich. So now we have a bond bubble and
the banks are still loaded with NPLs. And because rates are close to zero they can't make money. And the customers have no money. And that's across Europe.

Draghi was better to just put €10k into everyones bank account across Europe.
Yeah. But he didn't
the best thing to do now is to tax the ones who got the money
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on September 13, 2016, 12:52:49 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 13, 2016, 09:10:58 AM
Quote from: highorlow on September 13, 2016, 09:01:25 AM
QuoteBut Draghi decided to pump QE to the already rich. So now we have a bond bubble and
the banks are still loaded with NPLs. And because rates are close to zero they can't make money. And the customers have no money. And that's across Europe.

Draghi was better to just put €10k into everyones bank account across Europe.
Yeah. But he didn't
the best thing to do now is to tax the ones who got the money

Seafoid.

Draghi didn't give anyone free money. It came with interest. This is the problem.

All currency is owed back with INTEREST. That means that there is always more debt than there is currency to pay it off. QE just compounds this problem. It isn't free money for the rich or anyone else.

If he gave all of us €10, he would have charged interest on it. Thus we would have got money, yes, but we would have had even more debt. Giving even more debt to over-indebted people would be as daft as giving it to over-indebted banks.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on September 13, 2016, 01:10:54 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 13, 2016, 12:52:49 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 13, 2016, 09:10:58 AM
Quote from: highorlow on September 13, 2016, 09:01:25 AM
QuoteBut Draghi decided to pump QE to the already rich. So now we have a bond bubble and
the banks are still loaded with NPLs. And because rates are close to zero they can't make money. And the customers have no money. And that's across Europe.

Draghi was better to just put €10k into everyones bank account across Europe.
Yeah. But he didn't
the best thing to do now is to tax the ones who got the money

Seafoid.

Draghi didn't give anyone free money. It came with interest. This is the problem.

All currency is owed back with INTEREST. That means that there is always more debt than there is currency to pay it off. QE just compounds this problem. It isn't free money for the rich or anyone else.

If he gave all of us €10, he would have charged interest on it. Thus we would have got money, yes, but we would have had even more debt. Giving even more debt to over-indebted people would be as daft as giving it to over-indebted banks.
Muppet the point is where QE went. It didn't get to people who would spend it. It went into asset bubbles. The theory behind QE came from Milton Friedman who believed that an increase in the money supply would generate inflation. It didn't.  We are in serious shit now.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on September 13, 2016, 02:38:08 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 13, 2016, 01:10:54 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 13, 2016, 12:52:49 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 13, 2016, 09:10:58 AM
Quote from: highorlow on September 13, 2016, 09:01:25 AM
QuoteBut Draghi decided to pump QE to the already rich. So now we have a bond bubble and
the banks are still loaded with NPLs. And because rates are close to zero they can't make money. And the customers have no money. And that's across Europe.

Draghi was better to just put €10k into everyones bank account across Europe.
Yeah. But he didn't
the best thing to do now is to tax the ones who got the money

Seafoid.

Draghi didn't give anyone free money. It came with interest. This is the problem.

All currency is owed back with INTEREST. That means that there is always more debt than there is currency to pay it off. QE just compounds this problem. It isn't free money for the rich or anyone else.

If he gave all of us €10, he would have charged interest on it. Thus we would have got money, yes, but we would have had even more debt. Giving even more debt to over-indebted people would be as daft as giving it to over-indebted banks.
Muppet the point is where QE went. It didn't get to people who would spend it. It went into asset bubbles. The theory behind QE came from Milton Friedman who believed that an increase in the money supply would generate inflation. It didn't.  We are in serious shit now.

Increasing the money supply this way increases the debt, which is the problem in the first place. It doesn't matter where it goes, all that matters is that it has to be paid back.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on September 13, 2016, 05:20:54 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 13, 2016, 02:38:08 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 13, 2016, 01:10:54 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 13, 2016, 12:52:49 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 13, 2016, 09:10:58 AM
Quote from: highorlow on September 13, 2016, 09:01:25 AM
QuoteBut Draghi decided to pump QE to the already rich. So now we have a bond bubble and
the banks are still loaded with NPLs. And because rates are close to zero they can't make money. And the customers have no money. And that's across Europe.

Draghi was better to just put €10k into everyones bank account across Europe.
Yeah. But he didn't
the best thing to do now is to tax the ones who got the money

Seafoid.

Draghi didn't give anyone free money. It came with interest. This is the problem.

All currency is owed back with INTEREST. That means that there is always more debt than there is currency to pay it off. QE just compounds this problem. It isn't free money for the rich or anyone else.

If he gave all of us €10, he would have charged interest on it. Thus we would have got money, yes, but we would have had even more debt. Giving even more debt to over-indebted people would be as daft as giving it to over-indebted banks.
Muppet the point is where QE went. It didn't get to people who would spend it. It went into asset bubbles. The theory behind QE came from Milton Friedman who believed that an increase in the money supply would generate inflation. It didn't.  We are in serious shit now.

Increasing the money supply this way increases the debt, which is the problem in the first place. It doesn't matter where it goes, all that matters is that it has to be paid back.
I have heard from a few people who think the Central Banks will cancel what they bought.
What they can't do is get money to "real food real people" .Inequality is the root cause of the ongoing mess.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on September 13, 2016, 05:25:26 PM
What do you mean by 'cancel what they bought'?

Is it like collecting money and electronically deleting it, like we were doing with Lenny's promissory note?

If inequality really is the problem, then there is no solution. Because people are not born equal.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on September 13, 2016, 06:24:32 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 13, 2016, 05:25:26 PM
What do you mean by 'cancel what they bought'?

Is it like collecting money and electronically deleting it, like we were doing with Lenny's promissory note?

If inequality really is the problem, then there is no solution. Because people are not born equal.
The percentage of wealth held by the richest goes from safe to dangerous over time. Dangerous means deflation. We are at dangerous now. 
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: armaghniac on September 13, 2016, 07:27:10 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 13, 2016, 06:24:32 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 13, 2016, 05:25:26 PM
What do you mean by 'cancel what they bought'?

Is it like collecting money and electronically deleting it, like we were doing with Lenny's promissory note?

If inequality really is the problem, then there is no solution. Because people are not born equal.
The percentage of wealth held by the richest goes from safe to dangerous over time. Dangerous means deflation. We are at dangerous now.

I think we should deflate Tony Fearon, and the Dubs.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on September 13, 2016, 07:34:10 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 13, 2016, 06:24:32 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 13, 2016, 05:25:26 PM
What do you mean by 'cancel what they bought'?

Is it like collecting money and electronically deleting it, like we were doing with Lenny's promissory note?

If inequality really is the problem, then there is no solution. Because people are not born equal.
The percentage of wealth held by the richest goes from safe to dangerous over time. Dangerous means deflation. We are at dangerous now.

The answer to every question is not how much money the richest have.

World poverty is lower than it has ever been in history. That is not to say that it shouldn't be much lower, but it is important to add some facts to the populist sh*te. Life expectancy is higher than it has even been in history. Education is better and more freely available than it has ever been.

Debt, and the addiction of populists from the left and the right to debt, is the problem.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on September 13, 2016, 08:06:03 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 13, 2016, 07:34:10 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 13, 2016, 06:24:32 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 13, 2016, 05:25:26 PM
What do you mean by 'cancel what they bought'?

Is it like collecting money and electronically deleting it, like we were doing with Lenny's promissory note?

If inequality really is the problem, then there is no solution. Because people are not born equal.
The percentage of wealth held by the richest goes from safe to dangerous over time. Dangerous means deflation. We are at dangerous now.

The answer to every question is not how much money the richest have.

World poverty is lower than it has ever been in history. That is not to say that it shouldn't be much lower, but it is important to add some facts to the populist sh*te. Life expectancy is higher than it has even been in history. Education is better and more freely available than it has ever been.

Debt, and the addiction of populists from the left and the right to debt, is the problem.
Who owns the debt? Deveraging never got going. Why?
Productivity is another massive problem.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on September 13, 2016, 08:13:16 PM
I would say the growth, or the lack of it is the answer to your question.

Increasing productivity is fine, as long as you have growth to increase demand, or growth in new areas to re-locate those who lose their jobs, or ideally both.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on September 13, 2016, 09:32:22 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 13, 2016, 08:13:16 PM
I would say the growth, or the lack of it is the answer to your question.

Increasing productivity is fine, as long as you have growth to increase demand, or growth in new areas to re-locate those who lose their jobs, or ideally both.
http://blogs.ft.com/andrew-smithers/2014/06/poor-productivity-is-no-puzzle-3/
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on September 26, 2016, 06:37:04 PM
Deutsche Bank is on a very shaky scraw
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c882de4e-83c1-11e6-a29c-6e7d9515ad15.html
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on September 26, 2016, 09:19:28 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 26, 2016, 06:37:04 PM
Deutsche Bank is on a very shaky scraw
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c882de4e-83c1-11e6-a29c-6e7d9515ad15.html

For those who don't subscribe to FT...

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/0926/819285-deutsche-bank-fine/ (http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/0926/819285-deutsche-bank-fine/)

Deutsche Bank denies need for government bailout over $14 billion fine

Deutsche Bank has said it has no need for German government help with a $14 billion (€12.4 billion) US demand to settle claims it missold mortgage-backed securities, as its shares hit a record low.

German magazine Focus reported at the weekend that Chancellor Angela Merkel had met Deutsche Bank Chief Executive John Cryan over the summer and had indicated he could expect no help from Berlin in resolving the bank's dispute with the US Department of Justice.

Ms Merkel had also ruled out state aid to Deutsche Bank, the magazine said, citing government sources.

Germany's biggest lender responded by saying it did not require assistance from Berlin and had not requested it.



Troubled bank insists it needs no new funding. Where have we heard that before? Has it ever been true?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on September 26, 2016, 09:51:42 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 26, 2016, 09:19:28 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 26, 2016, 06:37:04 PM
Deutsche Bank is on a very shaky scraw
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c882de4e-83c1-11e6-a29c-6e7d9515ad15.html

For those who don't subscribe to FT...

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/0926/819285-deutsche-bank-fine/ (http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/0926/819285-deutsche-bank-fine/)

Deutsche Bank denies need for government bailout over $14 billion fine

Deutsche Bank has said it has no need for German government help with a $14 billion (€12.4 billion) US demand to settle claims it missold mortgage-backed securities, as its shares hit a record low.

German magazine Focus reported at the weekend that Chancellor Angela Merkel had met Deutsche Bank Chief Executive John Cryan over the summer and had indicated he could expect no help from Berlin in resolving the bank's dispute with the US Department of Justice.

Ms Merkel had also ruled out state aid to Deutsche Bank, the magazine said, citing government sources.

Germany's biggest lender responded by saying it did not require assistance from Berlin and had not requested it.



Troubled bank insists it needs no new funding. Where have we heard that before? Has it ever been true?
That was last week

Shares are down to a 30 year low.
Near zero interest rates are killing the bank which has very high costs.
Schadenfreude levels are reportedly very high in Greece
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on September 26, 2016, 09:57:07 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 26, 2016, 09:51:42 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 26, 2016, 09:19:28 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 26, 2016, 06:37:04 PM
Deutsche Bank is on a very shaky scraw
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c882de4e-83c1-11e6-a29c-6e7d9515ad15.html

For those who don't subscribe to FT...

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/0926/819285-deutsche-bank-fine/ (http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/0926/819285-deutsche-bank-fine/)

Deutsche Bank denies need for government bailout over $14 billion fine

Deutsche Bank has said it has no need for German government help with a $14 billion (€12.4 billion) US demand to settle claims it missold mortgage-backed securities, as its shares hit a record low.

German magazine Focus reported at the weekend that Chancellor Angela Merkel had met Deutsche Bank Chief Executive John Cryan over the summer and had indicated he could expect no help from Berlin in resolving the bank's dispute with the US Department of Justice.

Ms Merkel had also ruled out state aid to Deutsche Bank, the magazine said, citing government sources.

Germany's biggest lender responded by saying it did not require assistance from Berlin and had not requested it.



Troubled bank insists it needs no new funding. Where have we heard that before? Has it ever been true?
That was last week

Shares are down to a 30 year low.
Near zero interest rates are killing the bank which has very high costs.
Schadenfreude levels are reportedly very high in Greece

Wasn't Deutsche Bank one of the last one's still buying CDSs when everyone else was running for the nuclear bunkers in The Big Short?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on September 26, 2016, 10:42:56 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 26, 2016, 09:57:07 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 26, 2016, 09:51:42 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 26, 2016, 09:19:28 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 26, 2016, 06:37:04 PM
Deutsche Bank is on a very shaky scraw
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c882de4e-83c1-11e6-a29c-6e7d9515ad15.html

For those who don't subscribe to FT...

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/0926/819285-deutsche-bank-fine/ (http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/0926/819285-deutsche-bank-fine/)

Deutsche Bank denies need for government bailout over $14 billion fine

Deutsche Bank has said it has no need for German government help with a $14 billion (€12.4 billion) US demand to settle claims it missold mortgage-backed securities, as its shares hit a record low.

German magazine Focus reported at the weekend that Chancellor Angela Merkel had met Deutsche Bank Chief Executive John Cryan over the summer and had indicated he could expect no help from Berlin in resolving the bank's dispute with the US Department of Justice.

Ms Merkel had also ruled out state aid to Deutsche Bank, the magazine said, citing government sources.

Germany's biggest lender responded by saying it did not require assistance from Berlin and had not requested it.



Troubled bank insists it needs no new funding. Where have we heard that before? Has it ever been true?
That was last week

Shares are down to a 30 year low.
Near zero interest rates are killing the bank which has very high costs.
Schadenfreude levels are reportedly very high in Greece

Wasn't Deutsche Bank one of the last one's still buying CDSs when everyone else was running for the nuclear bunkers in The Big Short?
Yes

The Germans have been hammering the Piggies about moral hazard since 2008. As a result the Eurozone does not have the following infrastructure

• Banking union with a single supervisor
• a single resolution authority
• a common safety net involving
o Deposit insurance
o fiscal backstops
o burden sharing and
o a credible Lender of Last Resort

The existential moral hazard is on the DB balance sheet
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHx-OgXaQAc
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Franko on September 27, 2016, 10:06:05 PM
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-27/356-billion-fund-manager-now-most-treacherous-time-ever-ive-never-seen-my-career

This is interesting/scary.  Usually it's these guys talking things up. But they're saying the exact opposite.

*Edit

Read in conjunction with this.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-21/195-billion-asset-manager-time-has-come-leave-dance-floor
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Main Street on September 28, 2016, 01:07:22 AM
Quote from: Declan on September 01, 2016, 01:00:13 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CrQ_AQxUMAEDTFw.jpg:large)
From what I gather, this 13bn is a % of income from 110bn, from sales around europe and at some stage that money was routed through some pokey apple owned, 2 roomed unmanned office in Dublin, before going somewhere else,  at present remaining in an untaxed state, a financial limbo, piles and piles of stagnant wealth, extracted from circulation.

Most citizens in Europe would probably concur that Apple should pay corporate tax on this income at source in Europe. Ireland could gather this tax on behalf of our European neighbors , employ a number of suitably qualified professionals,  the  state can extract  a  generous commission (10% :))  and redistribute the rest to the other European countries based on sales figures.


Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on September 28, 2016, 06:01:06 AM
Quote from: Franko on September 27, 2016, 10:06:05 PM
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-27/356-billion-fund-manager-now-most-treacherous-time-ever-ive-never-seen-my-career

This is interesting/scary.  Usually it's these guys talking things up. But they're saying the exact opposite.

*Edit

Read in conjunction with this.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-21/195-billion-asset-manager-time-has-come-leave-dance-floor
Anyone concerned about investment returns should book a discussion with an advisor from Muppet LLP.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Hound on September 28, 2016, 08:40:03 AM
Quote from: Main Street on September 28, 2016, 01:07:22 AM
Quote from: Declan on September 01, 2016, 01:00:13 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CrQ_AQxUMAEDTFw.jpg:large)
From what I gather, this 13bn is a % of income from 110bn, from sales around europe and at some stage that money was routed through some pokey apple owned, 2 roomed unmanned office in Dublin, before going somewhere else,  at present remaining in an untaxed state, a financial limbo, piles and piles of stagnant wealth, extracted from circulation.


The 13bn is 12.5% of Apple's untaxed international profits.

The company that earned it (owned the international IP and technology rights to which all the untaxed profits derived) was incorporated in Ireland, but was never tax resident in Ireland, never managed from Ireland. So just like Dermot Desmond and Denis O'Brien were born in Ireland, but are not resident in Ireland, they don't pay Irish tax on their international earnings. Where they are actually resident, if anywhere, is irrelevant to Ireland - all that's important from an Irish tax viewpoint is they are not resident in Ireland. And this was the way corporate residence used to work too.

The profits don't belong to Ireland or anywhere else in Europe for that matter. They all got their share of Apple's profits, based on the activities that take place in those countries. And Apple would be heavily audited by Revenue authorities throughout Europe.

The offshore international profits are technically liable to tax in the US. But there is a US provision (or "loophole" as people like to call such things) that allows groups to defer paying tax on group's international profits until the money is remitted back to the US, subject to meeting a number of conditions (which I don't think are too onerous, given all the US MNCs avail of it). No such loophole exists in UK, Germany, Canada, Australia, hence it was only US companies who could leave millions or billions of untaxed income offshore. The loophole could be closed with a flick of a pen in the US, but it never has been.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Main Street on September 28, 2016, 02:19:55 PM
Quote from: Hound on September 28, 2016, 08:40:03 AM
Quote from: Main Street on September 28, 2016, 01:07:22 AM
Quote from: Declan on September 01, 2016, 01:00:13 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CrQ_AQxUMAEDTFw.jpg:large)
From what I gather, this 13bn is a % of income from 110bn, from sales around europe and at some stage that money was routed through some pokey apple owned, 2 roomed unmanned office in Dublin, before going somewhere else,  at present remaining in an untaxed state, a financial limbo, piles and piles of stagnant wealth, extracted from circulation.


The 13bn is 12.5% of Apple's untaxed international profits.
The 13bn is untaxed profit from sales in the EU
"Apple transfers its intellectual capital to an Apple subsidiary in Ireland, which then "sells" Apple products all over Europe. And it keeps most of the money there. Ireland has been more than happy to oblige by imposing on Apple a tax rate that's laughably low – 0.005 percent in 2014, for example.' Newsweek sept 2016

QuoteThe company that earned it (owned the international IP and technology rights to which all the untaxed profits derived) was incorporated in Ireland, but was never tax resident in Ireland, never managed from Ireland. So just like Dermot Desmond and Denis O'Brien were born in Ireland, but are not resident in Ireland, they don't pay Irish tax on their international earnings. Where they are actually resident, if anywhere, is irrelevant to Ireland - all that's important from an Irish tax viewpoint is they are not resident in Ireland. And this was the way corporate residence used to work too.
State collusion in multinational tax avoidance, whether it be Netherlands or Ireland, does not endow a particular tax avoidance scheme by a multinational, with EU rule compliance.

QuoteThe profits don't belong to Ireland or anywhere else in Europe for that matter. They all got their share of Apple's profits, based on the activities that take place in those countries. And Apple would be heavily audited by Revenue authorities throughout Europe.

The 13bn is untaxed profit from sales in the EU, no EU country received tax from these untaxed profits. Entitlement to this tax revenue  is an issue to be resolved

QuoteThe offshore international profits are technically liable to tax in the US. But there is a US provision (or "loophole" as people like to call such things) that allows groups to defer paying tax on group's international profits until the money is remitted back to the US, subject to meeting a number of conditions (which I don't think are too onerous, given all the US MNCs avail of it). No such loophole exists in UK, Germany, Canada, Australia, hence it was only US companies who could leave millions or billions of untaxed income offshore. The loophole could be closed with a flick of a pen in the US, but it never has been.

The considered EU ruling  is that Apple's arrangement in Ireland to avoid paying tax on EU sales' profit was illegal. 

Apple's illegal deals with the Irish government allowed the technology giant to pay virtually nothing on its European business in some years. The arrangements enabled Apple to funnel profit from two Irish subsidiaries to a "head office" with "no employees, no premises, no real activities," economist

'that Irish rulings in 1991 and 2007 artificially lowered the tax Apple was due to pay, and that although the firm did not break any law, this arrangement was in breach of EU state-aid rules preventing member states from offering preferential treatment to particular firms. The spat centres on two Irish-registered subsidiaries that hold the right to use Apple's intellectual property to make and sell its products outside the Americas.'
Economist sept 3rd

This ruling is under appeal.  I have already stated that  it's obvious that this income was not generated in Ireland but the EU have a strong case for Apple to answer and whether it be Ireland or all the other EU states  or the US are the beneficiary, then it's a positive move by the EU  against chronic tax avoidance strategies by multinationals.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on September 28, 2016, 03:53:45 PM
I was at a conference today. An asset manager  said there was nothing wrong with negative interest rates.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Igsb3ejgbL8
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on September 28, 2016, 04:19:30 PM
The German government is reported to be putting together a rescue plan for Deutsche Bank.
The EFSF would be redundant. It isn't big enough anawez because Merkel was worried about moral hazard from useless Mediterranean bankers.
Useless German bankers need money now. Negative interest rates mean Deutsche can't generate profits to fix its problems by itself. This is Draghi's fault. QE does not generate inflation.

The Eurozone has no system to wind down  banks that are fucked . Viewers may remember how much AIB and Anglo Irish cost a) bond holders 2) tax payers.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Hound on September 28, 2016, 04:30:56 PM
Quote from: Main Street on September 28, 2016, 02:19:55 PM
"Apple transfers its intellectual capital to an Apple subsidiary in Ireland, which then "sells" Apple products all over Europe. And it keeps most of the money there. Ireland has been more than happy to oblige by imposing on Apple a tax rate that's laughably low – 0.005 percent in 2014, for example.' Newsweek sept 2016
You're quoting from a US publication that clearly knows nothing about Irish tax rules!
Ireland imposing a 0.005% tax rate is a complete falsehood.

Apple transferred zero intellectual capital to an Irish resident company. Nada.

While Apple International was incorporated in Ireland, it was never tax resident there. The intellectual capital never came to Ireland. Ireland never paid for it, never got any tax deductions for the cost of acquiring it or for the huge cost of maintaining and improving the technology. This was all done by Apple International, an offshore company.

Just like Ireland can't simply decide to tax Dermot Desmond etc, it can't make a non-resident company pay Irish tax on international profits. 

Quote from: Main Street on September 28, 2016, 02:19:55 PM
The 13bn is untaxed profit from sales in the EU, no EU country received tax from these untaxed profits. Entitlement to this tax revenue  is an issue to be resolved

Again, not true. Each EU country has received a slice of the pie for the activities that were carried on by Apple subsidiaries in those countries, and tax paid accordingly. All those companies would be just sales companies, and they'd be guaranteed a profit each year, regardless of whether Apple International made a profit or not. They carry no risk, and so while they're profits are guaranteeed they are relatively small. They would have been audited and agreed most years by the relevant tax authorities in Europe.

But there is approx $110 billion (i.e the bulk of the profits) that belongs to the IP holder that is untaxed (or untaxed until remitted to the US - when remitted to the US it would be taxed at approx 35%, although this won't happen anytime soon. Although things could change if Donald wins and reduces the rate to 15%!).

The intellectual capital is what drives profits. In the 1980s Apple transferred their international (non-US) intellectual capital offshore. US tax would have been paid on that transfer. The offshore company would have paid billions to Apple US to share the costs of all new research that led to the iPhone, etc. Therefore, it is this company that rightfully obtains all the super profits that have arisen from the super technology.

The decision made by the Commission was made by non-tax experts. Assuming the appeal is heard by a judge or legal expert with actual knowledge of the various tax systems, then there isn't a hope in hell that Ireland/Apple will lose the appeal. It's arguable that Apple should have put a bit more profit in Ireland, which could result in extra Irish tax of between, say €100m and €1 billion, but to suggest we're due the full €13 billion is just absolutely ludicrous. Pure nonsense.

And the rest of Europe is due nothing extra. They've pretty much all already done their audits
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on September 28, 2016, 08:21:51 PM
That is the best explanation I've seen of this situation Hound.

As far as I can see, Apple is deferring tax that will eventually fall due in the US. Certainly that is how the US sees it. The EU Commission made a grab for it, using Ireland as proxy, and playing sleeveen politics by trying to embarass us into playing along - 'shur why don't you take the free €13bn we have handed you?'.

This reflects very, very poorly on the EU Commission imho.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: armaghniac on September 28, 2016, 08:40:23 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 28, 2016, 08:21:51 PM
That is the best explanation I've seen of this situation Hound.

+1


QuoteAs far as I can see, Apple is deferring tax that will eventually fall due in the US. Certainly that is how the US sees it. The EU Commission made a grab for it, using Ireland as proxy, and playing sleeveen politics by trying to embarass us into playing along - 'shur why don't you take the free €13bn we have handed you?'.

This reflects very, very poorly on the EU Commission imho.

Exactly.

The US needs to get its act together.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: trileacman on September 28, 2016, 10:40:43 PM
Quote from: Hound on September 28, 2016, 04:30:56 PM
Quote from: Main Street on September 28, 2016, 02:19:55 PM
"Apple transfers its intellectual capital to an Apple subsidiary in Ireland, which then "sells" Apple products all over Europe. And it keeps most of the money there. Ireland has been more than happy to oblige by imposing on Apple a tax rate that's laughably low – 0.005 percent in 2014, for example.' Newsweek sept 2016
You're quoting from a US publication that clearly knows nothing about Irish tax rules!
Ireland imposing a 0.005% tax rate is a complete falsehood.

Apple transferred zero intellectual capital to an Irish resident company. Nada.

While Apple International was incorporated in Ireland, it was never tax resident there. The intellectual capital never came to Ireland. Ireland never paid for it, never got any tax deductions for the cost of acquiring it or for the huge cost of maintaining and improving the technology. This was all done by Apple International, an offshore company.

Just like Ireland can't simply decide to tax Dermot Desmond etc, it can't make a non-resident company pay Irish tax on international profits. 

Quote from: Main Street on September 28, 2016, 02:19:55 PM
The 13bn is untaxed profit from sales in the EU, no EU country received tax from these untaxed profits. Entitlement to this tax revenue  is an issue to be resolved

Again, not true. Each EU country has received a slice of the pie for the activities that were carried on by Apple subsidiaries in those countries, and tax paid accordingly. All those companies would be just sales companies, and they'd be guaranteed a profit each year, regardless of whether Apple International made a profit or not. They carry no risk, and so while they're profits are guaranteeed they are relatively small. They would have been audited and agreed most years by the relevant tax authorities in Europe.

But there is approx $110 billion (i.e the bulk of the profits) that belongs to the IP holder that is untaxed (or untaxed until remitted to the US - when remitted to the US it would be taxed at approx 35%, although this won't happen anytime soon. Although things could change if Donald wins and reduces the rate to 15%!).

The intellectual capital is what drives profits. In the 1980s Apple transferred their international (non-US) intellectual capital offshore. US tax would have been paid on that transfer. The offshore company would have paid billions to Apple US to share the costs of all new research that led to the iPhone, etc. Therefore, it is this company that rightfully obtains all the super profits that have arisen from the super technology.

The decision made by the Commission was made by non-tax experts. Assuming the appeal is heard by a judge or legal expert with actual knowledge of the various tax systems, then there isn't a hope in hell that Ireland/Apple will lose the appeal. It's arguable that Apple should have put a bit more profit in Ireland, which could result in extra Irish tax of between, say €100m and €1 billion, but to suggest we're due the full €13 billion is just absolutely ludicrous. Pure nonsense.

And the rest of Europe is due nothing extra. They've pretty much all already done their audits

(https://media.giphy.com/media/UTT6QbG4EPOIE/giphy.gif)
Game, set, match.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Hardy on September 28, 2016, 11:23:46 PM
Spot on Hound.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on September 29, 2016, 06:01:19 PM
Commerzbank is dropping 10000 jobs
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: bennydorano on October 01, 2016, 04:47:23 PM
Is Deutsche Bank going to sink Europe?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on October 01, 2016, 04:49:22 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on October 01, 2016, 04:47:23 PM
Is Deutsche Bank going to sink Europe?
Not yet.
Negative interest rates will destroy banks everywhere. Banking is based on taking in short term deposits to fund long term loans eg mortgages . The profits are a cut of the difference between interest charged and interest paid. Negative interest rates wipe out those profits.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: thejuice on October 08, 2016, 11:03:16 PM
Deutsche Bank is too big to fail. Germans are going to have to shoulder this one.

(http://www.abc.net.au/news/image/7628648-3x2-940x627.jpg)

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on October 09, 2016, 06:14:20 AM
Quote from: thejuice on October 08, 2016, 11:03:16 PM
Deutsche Bank is too big to fail. Germans are going to have to shoulder this one.

(http://www.abc.net.au/news/image/7628648-3x2-940x627.jpg)
The Axis powers
There isn't any spare sovereign balance sheet capacity.  The EFSF only has 700 bn
Something will have to give.
If you can't hold on
I've got soul but I'm not a soldier
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Declan on November 25, 2016, 02:58:21 PM
Here's the book we should all be reading for Christmas
https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/685170 (https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/685170)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on December 04, 2016, 10:14:44 PM
Exit polls suggesting big win for the 'No' vote in Italy.

Does Renzi resign?

Will it make markets turbulent on the run in to Christmas?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on December 04, 2016, 10:16:10 PM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/12/04/italian-referendum-markets-renzi-braced-no-vote/ (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/12/04/italian-referendum-markets-renzi-braced-no-vote/)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: armaghniac on December 04, 2016, 11:12:52 PM
Euro down 1.5c, €/$ parity might on the cards.

edit: Renzi now resigned.

I'm not sure about this one. At least some of this is a bit like Kenny trying to abolish the Senate here, a lot of the people voting against it were not necessarily trying to overthrow the EU.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on December 05, 2016, 08:06:27 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on December 04, 2016, 11:12:52 PM
Euro down 1.5c, €/$ parity might on the cards.

edit: Renzi now resigned.

I'm not sure about this one. At least some of this is a bit like Kenny trying to abolish the Senate here, a lot of the people voting against it were not necessarily trying to overthrow the EU.

A cheaper Euro is good news

They are going to have to start restructuring debt. Unless they want the fascists to take over
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on December 05, 2016, 09:58:27 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on December 04, 2016, 11:12:52 PM
Euro down 1.5c, €/$ parity might on the cards.

edit: Renzi now resigned.

I'm not sure about this one. At least some of this is a bit like Kenny trying to abolish the Senate here, a lot of the people voting against it were not necessarily trying to overthrow the EU.

Renzi put a bad case together.
He was very arrogant

they are going to have to tweak the rules to deal with Non perf loans
Cos QE is  not working
And they might as well fund banks with it
While they are at it why not give the EZ a Lender of Last Resort `?

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on December 05, 2016, 10:59:49 AM
2 years ago, Renzi was the antiestablishment candidate, until he got elected and attempted reform.

Then the far-left and far-right successfully painted him as the establishment candidate and he got mauled.

Who ever coined the phrase 'post-intellectual era' hit the nail on the head.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on December 05, 2016, 12:08:03 PM
Quote from: muppet on December 05, 2016, 10:59:49 AM
2 years ago, Renzi was the antiestablishment candidate, until he got elected and attempted reform.

Then the far-left and far-right successfully painted him as the establishment candidate and he got mauled.

Who ever coined the phrase 'post-intellectual era' hit the nail on the head.
Ditch hurling
Reform is v hard when you have nothing to offer people and there is no growth
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on December 05, 2016, 12:31:31 PM
Quote from: seafoid on December 05, 2016, 12:08:03 PM
Quote from: muppet on December 05, 2016, 10:59:49 AM
2 years ago, Renzi was the antiestablishment candidate, until he got elected and attempted reform.

Then the far-left and far-right successfully painted him as the establishment candidate and he got mauled.

Who ever coined the phrase 'post-intellectual era' hit the nail on the head.
Ditch hurling
Reform is v hard when you have nothing to offer people and there is no growth

Blindly voting everyone remotely associated with the 'establishment', out of government, even if they were the antiestablishment candidates the last time, is fun. And it feels good.

But it isn't going to end well. Godwin's Law may have to be upgraded to include ballots.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: armaghniac on December 05, 2016, 01:13:14 PM
Quote from: muppet on December 05, 2016, 12:31:31 PM
Blindly voting everyone remotely associated with the 'establishment', out of government, even if they were the antiestablishment candidates the last time, is fun. And it feels good.

But it isn't going to end well. Godwin's Law may have to be upgraded to include ballots.

I would say there is a difference between not allowing the government make a change, this particular change probably was a mixed bag anyhow, and voting for a change that the government doesn't want.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on December 05, 2016, 01:26:21 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on December 05, 2016, 01:13:14 PM
Quote from: muppet on December 05, 2016, 12:31:31 PM
Blindly voting everyone remotely associated with the 'establishment', out of government, even if they were the antiestablishment candidates the last time, is fun. And it feels good.

But it isn't going to end well. Godwin's Law may have to be upgraded to include ballots.

I would say there is a difference between not allowing the government make a change, this particular change probably was a mixed bag anyhow, and voting for a change that the government doesn't want.

It was, but something has to be done to end the stalemate whereby the Italian passes a bill to see it to be sent back by the Senate with a tiny amendment, only for it to be changed in Parliament, sent back to the Senate and returned again, this time with another tiny amendment and on and on ad infinitum.

But regardless, what is the point of electing antiestablishment figures, only to refuse to accept any reforms?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on December 05, 2016, 02:16:42 PM
Quote from: muppet on December 05, 2016, 01:26:21 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on December 05, 2016, 01:13:14 PM
Quote from: muppet on December 05, 2016, 12:31:31 PM
Blindly voting everyone remotely associated with the 'establishment', out of government, even if they were the antiestablishment candidates the last time, is fun. And it feels good.

But it isn't going to end well. Godwin's Law may have to be upgraded to include ballots.

I would say there is a difference between not allowing the government make a change, this particular change probably was a mixed bag anyhow, and voting for a change that the government doesn't want.

It was, but something has to be done to end the stalemate whereby the Italian passes a bill to see it to be sent back by the Senate with a tiny amendment, only for it to be changed in Parliament, sent back to the Senate and returned again, this time with another tiny amendment and on and on ad infinitum.

But regardless, what is the point of electing antiestablishment figures, only to refuse to accept any reforms?

What was the point of electing Trump?
It was Trump
http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2016/12/22/the-real-trump/
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: armaghniac on December 05, 2016, 02:27:35 PM
Quote from: muppet on December 05, 2016, 01:26:21 PM
But regardless, what is the point of electing antiestablishment figures, only to refuse to accept any reforms?

I support reform, especially of things that will affect other people.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on December 05, 2016, 02:37:15 PM
Quote from: seafoid on December 05, 2016, 02:16:42 PM
Quote from: muppet on December 05, 2016, 01:26:21 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on December 05, 2016, 01:13:14 PM
Quote from: muppet on December 05, 2016, 12:31:31 PM
Blindly voting everyone remotely associated with the 'establishment', out of government, even if they were the antiestablishment candidates the last time, is fun. And it feels good.

But it isn't going to end well. Godwin's Law may have to be upgraded to include ballots.

I would say there is a difference between not allowing the government make a change, this particular change probably was a mixed bag anyhow, and voting for a change that the government doesn't want.

It was, but something has to be done to end the stalemate whereby the Italian passes a bill to see it to be sent back by the Senate with a tiny amendment, only for it to be changed in Parliament, sent back to the Senate and returned again, this time with another tiny amendment and on and on ad infinitum.

But regardless, what is the point of electing antiestablishment figures, only to refuse to accept any reforms?

What was the point of electing Trump?
It was Trump
http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2016/12/22/the-real-trump/

This is the ultimate example. They think he will bring back jobs to iron & steel mills and coal mines. That would seem to be very unlikely.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on December 05, 2016, 03:31:29 PM
Quote from: muppet on December 05, 2016, 02:37:15 PM
Quote from: seafoid on December 05, 2016, 02:16:42 PM
Quote from: muppet on December 05, 2016, 01:26:21 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on December 05, 2016, 01:13:14 PM
Quote from: muppet on December 05, 2016, 12:31:31 PM
Blindly voting everyone remotely associated with the 'establishment', out of government, even if they were the antiestablishment candidates the last time, is fun. And it feels good.

But it isn't going to end well. Godwin's Law may have to be upgraded to include ballots.

I would say there is a difference between not allowing the government make a change, this particular change probably was a mixed bag anyhow, and voting for a change that the government doesn't want.

It was, but something has to be done to end the stalemate whereby the Italian passes a bill to see it to be sent back by the Senate with a tiny amendment, only for it to be changed in Parliament, sent back to the Senate and returned again, this time with another tiny amendment and on and on ad infinitum.

But regardless, what is the point of electing antiestablishment figures, only to refuse to accept any reforms?

What was the point of electing Trump?
It was Trump
http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2016/12/22/the-real-trump/

This is the ultimate example. They think he will bring back jobs to iron & steel mills and coal mines. That would seem to be very unlikely.
Brexit was similar. Taking the piss . Promising people the sun, moon and stars in order to get a crowd of extremists in.
It must be the latest stage of the business cycle
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Declan on December 13, 2016, 08:28:25 AM
I wonder will the Sugarman book have any traction - It's really scandalous

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CyvEohmWQAA5ewy.jpg:large)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: muppet on December 16, 2016, 12:52:13 PM
http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/1216/839287-italy-prepared-to-pump-15-billion-into-banks/ (http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/1216/839287-italy-prepared-to-pump-15-billion-into-banks/)

Italy's government is ready to pump €15 billion into Monte dei Paschi di Siena and other ailing banks, sources have said.

This comes as the country's third-largest lender pushes ahead with a private rescue plan that is widely expected to fail.

The world's oldest bank has until December 31 to raise €5 billion in equity or face being wound down by the European Central Bank, potentially triggering a wider banking and political crisis in Italy.

If needed, the government will pump €15 billion into the Siena-based lender and several other smaller banks to prevent that, two sources close to the matter said.

One source said unlisted regional banks Banca Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca, which were rescued this year by a state-backed fund, would also get support from the state.

The government would make the €15 billion available in a decree on December22, La Repubblica newspaper said, adding that Banca Carige could also benefit.

Italy's banking sector is saddled with €356 billion of bad loans, around a third of the euro zone's total and a legacy of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis when, unlike Spain or Ireland, Italy did not act to help its banks.

Monte dei Paschi di Siena, advised by investment banks JPMorgan and Mediobanca, plans to raise equity to remove €28 billion in bad loans from its books.

The JPMorgan-led plan calls for Monte dei Paschi to raise €5 billion in equity through a share sale and an offer for holders of its subordinated bonds to convert them into shares.

Monte dei Paschi is in the process of renegotiating fees with JPMorgan and the other banks that will try to sell the bank's stock after they walked out of a deal to underwrite the share issue, sources have said.

Back in October, its CEO Marco Morelli had said that commissions for the cash call would only be paid in case of success.

Monte dei Paschi said yesterday that 65% of the share sale would be reserved for institutional investors.

It would also extend its debt-swap offer to include investors who hold €1 billion in hybrid securities known as "Fresh 2008".

It also wants retail investors to convert their subordinated bondholdings, totalling €2.1 billion, into shares.

Italian market watchdog Consob approved the offer last night, a source close to the matter said, paving the way for it to start as early as today.

Another source close to the matter also said Qatar's sovereign wealth fund, which bankers have said could invest €1 billion in the bank, had yet to make up its mind.

If Rome bails out the lender, European Union rules require that private investors share in its losses - a politically dangerous condition for Italy's main ruling Democratic Party given early elections are looming next year.

Hundreds of thousands of ordinary Italians have invested in shares and bonds of local banks. A bailout of four small banks last year hit thousands of small savers.

Italy is in talks with the European Commission over ways to shield retail bondholders who would see their notes converted into shares in the event of a state bailout, sources have said.

As in the case of the four rescued banks, the Commission would allow the government to spare small bondholders only if they can prove they were victims of mis-selling and did not understand the risk in their investment, one source said.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Declan on December 19, 2016, 02:11:20 PM
FORMER FINANCE DIRECTOR of Anglo Irish Bank Willie McAteer has pleaded guilty to fraudulently obtaining an €8.4 million loan from the bank.

McAteer (66) of Greenrath, Tipperary town, Tipperary entered the plea this morning at Dublin Circuit Criminal Court ahead of his trial, which was due to start in January 2017.

McAteer admitted obtaining a loan of €8,426,307 from Anglo on 29 September 2008 which he secured against his shares in the bank. According to the indictment, he then used the money to pay off a personal loan he obtained from Bank of Ireland which resulted in a gain for himself and a loss to Anglo.

Judge Melanie Greally allowed McAteer to remain on bail with the consent of the prosecution and set a sentence date for 12 January 2017. She also urged caution in the reporting of the matter in the media.

The charge against McAteer states that "in breach of section 297 of the Companies Act, 1963, that you, on 29 September 2008, were knowingly a party to the carrying on of the business of a company, for a fraudulent purpose, the granting of Anglo Irish Bank Corp PLC of a loan to yourself in the amount of Eur8,426,307 secured only upon your shares in Anglo Irish Bank Corp PLC so that you could discharge a loan to Bank Of Ireland in that amount you were personally liable, caused a gain to yourself, a loss to bank Anglo Irish Bank Corp PLC."

Meanwhile the human reality  of the resulting recession is described on this morning's radio

http://www.broadsheet.ie/2016/12/19/id-give-anything-just-to-sleep-to-not-be-thinking-constantly-not-be-worrying/?utm_source=internal&utm_medium=web&utm_content=latest_comments#comment-1723951 (http://www.broadsheet.ie/2016/12/19/id-give-anything-just-to-sleep-to-not-be-thinking-constantly-not-be-worrying/?utm_source=internal&utm_medium=web&utm_content=latest_comments#comment-1723951)
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Hound on December 19, 2016, 06:34:11 PM
The European Commission have finally given the full detailed 130 page reasoning behind their 13 billion state aid ruling against Apple and Ireland.

My first comment is that this should have been the first the public heard of it instead of drip feeding info which led to a lot of wrong assumptions and people arguing for and against it without having the full detail, so everyone who commented on it has effectively been talking ballix, including me (because we didn't know the facts).

Turns out that EC are not arguing that these 2 Apple companies are tax resident in Ireland. It is accepted by all sides that the Head Office is not in Ireland, and any income associated with the Head Office is not taxable in Ireland. And there is an Irish branch and all income associated with the Irish branch is taxable at 12.5%.

The key is whether the technology owned by these companies (the companies licenced the IP from Apple US) is in Head Office or in Irish Branch. When Revenue gave their ruling to Apple, Apple had told them the IP would never be in Ireland and the ruling was given on that basis - which was wholly reasonably by Irish Revenue. However, EC raises the good point, as to whether that actually happened. There seems to be no real evidence of Head Office managing/owning the IP - which was pretty poor on Apple's part, if that's true. So if it's not in Head Office, EC's view is that it must be in Ireland (because the company clearly has the IP as it licences it in from the US, and therefore it has to be either in Head Office or Branch or shared between them).

So I've gone from being 90%+ sure that Ireland/Apple would win the appeal to being 50/50 on it. I'm not sure Ireland have done much wrong, they gave the ruling in good faith, but arguably Apple didn't follow through on what they said they'd do. Perhaps you could say Ireland should have audited Apple's position more that they did.

So overall I think there is now a reasonable chance Apple have severely underpaid their Irish tax (assuming the EC are correct in saying the board minutes of Head Office show no management of IP in all the 10+ years under review). However, I'm still not even slightly convinced that it's state aid. This wasn't at all a special deal given to Apple to give them an advantage in their sector. If Revenue had throught the IP would be in Ireland, then they simply would never have given the ruling they did give.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on May 04, 2017, 07:53:18 PM
Le Pen vs Macron

French women are thought by many Brits to be the epitome of sophistication but Le Pen is a real tr**p.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-5BcvZAzng
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Rossfan on May 04, 2017, 08:28:00 PM
Is there any extreme right wing racist fascist xenophobe  who isn't a tr**p??
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Hardy on May 04, 2017, 09:08:29 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on May 04, 2017, 08:28:00 PM
Is there any extreme right wing racist fascist xenophobe  who isn't a tr**p??

Whitey seems like a fella you could have a pint with.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on May 11, 2017, 07:41:58 AM

From the FT. Draghi went to the Dutch parliament

   Confronted with the possibility of the Netherlands quitting Europe's monetary union by Eurosceptic MP Thierry Baudet, an angry Mr Draghi said: "The euro is irrevocable. This is the treaty. I will not speculate on something that has no basis

Asked what would happen if a eurozone member needed to restructure its debt, he said: "We don't want to speculate on the probability of things that have no chance of happening. Why are you asking me that?"


He should join Fianna Fail !



Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Declan on May 23, 2017, 12:09:54 PM
See Seanie has just been acquitted of all 126 charges - The great and the good continue to roll on
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Avondhu star on May 23, 2017, 12:12:37 PM
Quote from: Declan on May 23, 2017, 12:09:54 PM
See Seanie has just been acquitted of all 126 charges - The great and the good continue to roll on
Dont worry about Seanie. He will be allright. Mrs Murphy has claimed two extra bale of briquettes on her Winter Fuel Allowance. Leo will make an example of her.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: FermGael on May 23, 2017, 03:10:57 PM
That's unbelievable.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Rossfan on May 23, 2017, 03:51:13 PM
I presume the thing wasn't proved beyond reasonable doubt??
Any way he had his minions to do the dirty work and  other doubt didn't put any instructions in writing guides, email etc.
Fcukn Cnut😠
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Declan on May 23, 2017, 03:58:13 PM
QuoteI presume the thing wasn't proved beyond reasonable doubt??

Didn't even get to a jury decision

AFTER THE LONGEST-running criminal trial in the history of the State, Seán Fitzpatrick has been acquitted of all charges.
This morning – the 126th day of proceedings – presiding judge John Aylmer said he will direct the jury to acquit the 68-year-old on all counts.
His ruling came after lengthy submissions from the defence arguing that the case should not go before the jury because of flaws in the investigation process and in the prosecution case.
Lawyers for the Director of Public Prosecution argued that the trial should continue and should be decided by the jury.
Judge Aylmer said that after considering the arguments from both sides he had decided that in the interests of the accused's constitutional right to a fair trial he would direct the jury to find the former banking executive not guilty.

The former chairman of Anglo Irish Bank was on trial in relation to an alleged failure to disclose the extent of loans to the bank's auditors. He had pleaded not guilty to all charges.
The jury will be told tomorrow that all charges have been dropped and will be dismissed.
Judge Aylmer said that the investigation, carried out by the Office of the Director of Corporate Enforcement (ODCE), fell short of an unbiased, impartial, balanced investigation that an accused is entitled to.
He said the investigation failed to seek out evidence as to the innocence as well as the guilt of the accused.
He said the most fundamental error was the manner in which the ODCE set about taking statements from witnesses. He said this involved coaching of witnesses, contamination of their statements from third parties such as solicitors for the auditors and cross-contamination of their statements between other witnesses.
Judge Aylmer also pointed to the extraordinary circumstances in which the ODCE lead investigator, Kevin O'Connell had admitted destroyed potentially relevant documentary evidence. This happened during legal argument in the first trial in May 2015 and emerged during that process.
That trial was then stopped and the retrial of FitzPatrick began last September. It was scheduled to last three months but quickly became bogged down in weeks of legal argument in the absence of the jury.
They claimed that two key witnesses from Ernst&Young, Anglo's former auditors, were coached by investigators.
They also argued that the statements by these witnesses were put together by the investigators as well as by lawyers for Ernst&Young. Finally they said that entire sections from one statement ended up in the other statement.
The prosecution had alleged that FitzPatrick of Whitshed Road, Greystones, Co Wicklow had failed to disclose to the bank's auditor Ernst and Young the details of director's loans he received from Anglo between November 2002 and February 2008.
He pleaded not guilty to 27 offences under the 1990 Companies Act. These include 22 charges of making a misleading, false or deceptive statement to auditors and five charges of furnishing false information in the years 2002 to 2007. The DPP had dropped some of these charges in the last four weeks.
The prosecution came on foot of an investigation by the ODCE that began shortly after the full size of FitzPatrick's personal loans emerged in December 2008. Between 2005 and 2007 the loans from the bank linked to the chairman had quadrupled to around €122 million.
The revelations led to FitzPatrick resigning as chairman.


And what will the consequences within EY, ODCE and DPP be of this - SFA >:(
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: macdanger2 on May 23, 2017, 04:04:06 PM
Quote from: Declan on May 23, 2017, 12:09:54 PM
See Seanie has just been acquitted of all 126 charges - The great and the good continue to roll on

Sounds like the investigators made a complete balls of it. Whether through incompetence or purposely remains to be seen
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: magpie seanie on May 23, 2017, 04:06:31 PM
That's depressing reading. I think as a country we needed this pr1ck to go down.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: trueblue1234 on May 23, 2017, 04:31:26 PM
Does that not just make you despair of this country? As corrupt as f%&k.

Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Avondhu star on May 23, 2017, 05:11:47 PM
Quote from: Declan on May 23, 2017, 03:58:13 PM
QuoteI presume the thing wasn't proved beyond reasonable doubt??

Didn't even get to a jury decision

AFTER THE LONGEST-running criminal trial in the history of the State, Seán Fitzpatrick has been acquitted of all charges.
This morning – the 126th day of proceedings – presiding judge John Aylmer said he will direct the jury to acquit the 68-year-old on all counts.
His ruling came after lengthy submissions from the defence arguing that the case should not go before the jury because of flaws in the investigation process and in the prosecution case.
Lawyers for the Director of Public Prosecution argued that the trial should continue and should be decided by the jury.
Judge Aylmer said that after considering the arguments from both sides he had decided that in the interests of the accused's constitutional right to a fair trial he would direct the jury to find the former banking executive not guilty.

The former chairman of Anglo Irish Bank was on trial in relation to an alleged failure to disclose the extent of loans to the bank's auditors. He had pleaded not guilty to all charges.
The jury will be told tomorrow that all charges have been dropped and will be dismissed.
Judge Aylmer said that the investigation, carried out by the Office of the Director of Corporate Enforcement (ODCE), fell short of an unbiased, impartial, balanced investigation that an accused is entitled to.
He said the investigation failed to seek out evidence as to the innocence as well as the guilt of the accused.
He said the most fundamental error was the manner in which the ODCE set about taking statements from witnesses. He said this involved coaching of witnesses, contamination of their statements from third parties such as solicitors for the auditors and cross-contamination of their statements between other witnesses.
Judge Aylmer also pointed to the extraordinary circumstances in which the ODCE lead investigator, Kevin O'Connell had admitted destroyed potentially relevant documentary evidence. This happened during legal argument in the first trial in May 2015 and emerged during that process.
That trial was then stopped and the retrial of FitzPatrick began last September. It was scheduled to last three months but quickly became bogged down in weeks of legal argument in the absence of the jury.
They claimed that two key witnesses from Ernst&Young, Anglo's former auditors, were coached by investigators.
They also argued that the statements by these witnesses were put together by the investigators as well as by lawyers for Ernst&Young. Finally they said that entire sections from one statement ended up in the other statement.
The prosecution had alleged that FitzPatrick of Whitshed Road, Greystones, Co Wicklow had failed to disclose to the bank's auditor Ernst and Young the details of director's loans he received from Anglo between November 2002 and February 2008.
He pleaded not guilty to 27 offences under the 1990 Companies Act. These include 22 charges of making a misleading, false or deceptive statement to auditors and five charges of furnishing false information in the years 2002 to 2007. The DPP had dropped some of these charges in the last four weeks.
The prosecution came on foot of an investigation by the ODCE that began shortly after the full size of FitzPatrick's personal loans emerged in December 2008. Between 2005 and 2007 the loans from the bank linked to the chairman had quadrupled to around €122 million.
The revelations led to FitzPatrick resigning as chairman.


And what will the consequences within EY, ODCE and DPP be of this - SFA >:(

Promotions and bonuses once they get one Patsy to retire early on health grounds with a suitable pension and lump sum
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: yellowcard on May 23, 2017, 05:24:27 PM
A huge victory for white collar corruption and the political classes today.

Hard to believe that Fitzpatrick and people of his ilk have got away scot free for playing Russian Roulette with taxpayers money, but strangely not surprising either.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Keyboard Warrior on May 23, 2017, 05:30:55 PM
Quote from: yellowcard on May 23, 2017, 05:24:27 PM
A huge victory for white collar corruption and the political classes today.

Hard to believe that Fitzpatrick and people of his ilk have got away scot free for playing Russian Roulette with taxpayers money, but strangely not surprising either.

But you go to jail for doing the double.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Avondhu star on May 23, 2017, 05:45:40 PM
Quote from: Keyboard Warrior on May 23, 2017, 05:30:55 PM
Quote from: yellowcard on May 23, 2017, 05:24:27 PM
A huge victory for white collar corruption and the political classes today.

Hard to believe that Fitzpatrick and people of his ilk have got away scot free for playing Russian Roulette with taxpayers money, but strangely not surprising either.

But you go to jail for doing the double.

Leo is the man to clamp down on the scourge of welfare fraud
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Rossfan on May 23, 2017, 05:47:36 PM
Indeed and no doubt Seànie is the sort that gets up for work in the morning.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: foxcommander on May 23, 2017, 06:46:16 PM
Disgraceful. He'll probably now look for compo for lost earnings and damage to his reputation off the state.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: trueblue1234 on May 23, 2017, 08:40:17 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on May 23, 2017, 03:51:13 PM
I presume the thing wasn't proved beyond reasonable doubt??
Any way he had his minions to do the dirty work and  other doubt didn't put any instructions in writing guides, email etc.
Fcukn Cnut😠
Didn't even get to the stage of unreasonable doubt cause of the absolute clusterfuck of a dishonest state that we operate in.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: armaghniac on May 23, 2017, 09:10:39 PM
Seanie might be a bollix, but he is entitled to due process.
There is a need for investigation of the regulators, who don't seem to know what they are at, first letting the likes of Anglo do what they liked and then coaching witnesses afterwards.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: trueblue1234 on May 23, 2017, 09:50:33 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on May 23, 2017, 09:10:39 PM
Seanie might be a bollix, but he is entitled to due process.
There is a need for investigation of the regulators, who don't seem to know what they are at, first letting the likes of Anglo do what they liked and then coaching witnesses afterwards.

He's entitled to due process alright. But I don't believe it wasn't. I think it was a farce. A get out of jail for one of the boys. You can believe that it was incompetency. I believe it is just corruption.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: The Subbie on May 23, 2017, 09:54:04 PM
Quote from: trueblue1234 on May 23, 2017, 09:50:33 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on May 23, 2017, 09:10:39 PM
Seanie might be a bollix, but he is entitled to due process.
There is a need for investigation of the regulators, who don't seem to know what they are at, first letting the likes of Anglo do what they liked and then coaching witnesses afterwards.

He's entitled to due process alright. But I don't believe it wasn't. I think it was a farce. A get out of jail for one of the boys. You can believe that it was incompetency. I believe it is just corruption.

I wish we had a like button,I'd wear it out for this.
Well said, nail on head.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: magpie seanie on May 24, 2017, 12:31:07 AM
Quote from: The Subbie on May 23, 2017, 09:54:04 PM
Quote from: trueblue1234 on May 23, 2017, 09:50:33 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on May 23, 2017, 09:10:39 PM
Seanie might be a bollix, but he is entitled to due process.
There is a need for investigation of the regulators, who don't seem to know what they are at, first letting the likes of Anglo do what they liked and then coaching witnesses afterwards.

He's entitled to due process alright. But I don't believe it wasn't. I think it was a farce. A get out of jail for one of the boys. You can believe that it was incompetency. I believe it is just corruption.

I wish we had a like button,I'd wear it out for this.
Well said, nail on head.

I agree. I'd say they're all drinking champagne in some gold club somewhere now.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: armaghniac on May 24, 2017, 12:48:36 AM
Quote from: trueblue1234 on May 23, 2017, 09:50:33 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on May 23, 2017, 09:10:39 PM
Seanie might be a bollix, but he is entitled to due process.
There is a need for investigation of the regulators, who don't seem to know what they are at, first letting the likes of Anglo do what they liked and then coaching witnesses afterwards.

He's entitled to due process alright. But I don't believe it wasn't. I think it was a farce. A get out of jail for one of the boys. You can believe that it was incompetency. I believe it is just corruption.

Once again you are choosing to "believe" without knowing the facts, that approach is where the problem lies.

Having watched RTÉ on the matter, I suspect that they just didn't fork out for a lawyer used to running a heavyweight criminal trial and the desk lawyers on the staff simply weren't used to it. Criminal work must be beyond reasonable doubt and you need to be clear what you are at.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Declan on May 24, 2017, 07:58:53 AM
QuoteI suspect that they just didn't fork out for a lawyer used to running a heavyweight criminal trial and the desk lawyers on the staff simply weren't used to it. Criminal work must be beyond reasonable doubt and you need to be clear what you are at.

Spot on so questions to be asked should include:
How could the ODCE leave a lawyer with no criminal law experience in charge of one of the most high profile banking cases in State history?
ODCE claims it reformed in 2012 after shambolic Sean Fitzpatrick inquiry. Really? It had ZERO forensic accountants employed between 2015-16
Central Bank set up hotline for whistleblowers in 2014. This yr, Indo revealed it had no one assigned to answer calls & no answering machine

The conspiracy theorist in me says the answers are obvious - there was never any intention or will to prosecute Seanie - the lead investigator shredded evidence and then went sick on stress related leave -
Coaching witnesses -writing statements for them and copying sections from one to another - all sounds very familiar MO for our ruling classes
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: trueblue1234 on May 24, 2017, 09:00:25 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on May 24, 2017, 12:48:36 AM
Quote from: trueblue1234 on May 23, 2017, 09:50:33 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on May 23, 2017, 09:10:39 PM
Seanie might be a bollix, but he is entitled to due process.
There is a need for investigation of the regulators, who don't seem to know what they are at, first letting the likes of Anglo do what they liked and then coaching witnesses afterwards.

He's entitled to due process alright. But I don't believe it wasn't. I think it was a farce. A get out of jail for one of the boys. You can believe that it was incompetency. I believe it is just corruption.

Once again you are choosing to "believe" without knowing the facts, that approach is where the problem lies.

Having watched RTÉ on the matter, I suspect that they just didn't fork out for a lawyer used to running a heavyweight criminal trial and the desk lawyers on the staff simply weren't used to it. Criminal work must be beyond reasonable doubt and you need to be clear what you are at.

I agree I am choosing to believe. It's a judgement call. Just the same as you believe that they "Didn't fork out for a lawyer used to running a heavyweight criminal trial". I actually find that option less believable. I said at the start of this trial that they would end up getting him off on a technicality (I actually thought they would have the decency to convict him of some of the lower end charges!!) and low and behold the judge stops it going to a jury.  It's corruption, and I think most people will see it for that. We knew the politics of the country were  corrupt as f&8k, but you would hope the courts would be unaffected.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: armaghniac on May 24, 2017, 11:57:24 AM
Well of course if Seanie had been brought down other stories about the regulator over the years might have emerged as well, we couldn't have that, could we?
But the point is that we live in a place where nobody will hold anyone responsible for this and if they had hired a team of crack lawyers this would have led to just as much complaint about spending money and where if a forensic accountant earns more than the "average industrial wage" then there are many on the left and right of politics who would prevent the State hiring him.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: trueblue1234 on May 24, 2017, 12:19:39 PM
We had an opportunity to hold someone responsible. But as you say focus on Fitzpatrick would have resulted in even more corruption by the regulator coming to light. So I believe, as Declan says, there was a deal cut to get Fitz off on all charges and a big brush to sweep it under the carpet.
I would rather there was people crying about the cost of the trial than on the honesty and integrity of the state/courts. It's made a joke out of the whole thing. But there's not be a thing done or said about it cause realistically what can be done. Just accept that we're in a corrupt state with no backbone.   
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Avondhu star on May 24, 2017, 12:32:48 PM
If you want the best prosecution lawyer who can prepare a case that will nail someone then you must be prepared to pay them top fees. You wont get that on the average industrial wage. That applies to every profession. This country begrudges anyone who makes good money and as a result you get tuppence halpenny performances. You can bet Seanies legal team were on good fees and bonuses.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: grounded on May 24, 2017, 01:51:24 PM
Whitewash pure and simple. Is anyone even in the slightest surprised that he got off?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Declan on May 24, 2017, 02:27:33 PM
QuoteYou can bet Seanies legal team were on good fees and bonuses.
with all costs to the taxpayer
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Smokin Joe on May 24, 2017, 06:43:36 PM
I heard on Matt Cooper tonight that they eventually hired a few forensic accountants in about 2015.  Have we any idea what the salary would have been; and how that would compare to what they would earn in PWC or the likes?

The irony that the State is picking up the tab for Seanie's expensive legal team as a result of them failing to pay market rate to ensure they got the smart and capable individuals working on behalf of the State
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Rois on May 24, 2017, 07:30:15 PM
Quote from: Smokin Joe on May 24, 2017, 06:43:36 PM
I heard on Matt Cooper tonight that they eventually hired a few forensic accountants in about 2015.  Have we any idea what the salary would have been; and how that would compare to what they would earn in PWC or the likes?

The irony that the State is picking up the tab for Seanie's expensive legal team as a result of them failing to pay market rate to ensure they got the smart and capable individuals working on behalf of the State
Probably seconded them in from Big 4.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Main Street on May 25, 2017, 08:25:06 PM
Quote from: Declan on May 23, 2017, 03:58:13 PM
QuoteI presume the thing wasn't proved beyond reasonable doubt??

Didn't even get to a jury decision

AFTER THE LONGEST-running criminal trial in the history of the State, Seán Fitzpatrick has been acquitted of all charges.
.......
Judge Aylmer also pointed to the extraordinary circumstances in which the ODCE lead investigator, Kevin O'Connell had admitted destroyed potentially relevant documentary evidence. This happened during legal argument in the first trial in May 2015 and emerged during that process.
That trial was then stopped and the retrial of FitzPatrick began last September. It was scheduled to last three months but quickly became bogged down in weeks of legal argument in the absence of the jury.
What are the chances of a solicitor having a panic attack just at the time he was close to reams of valuable evidence, then rushing to the shredder in a mad frenzied panic, destroying all that evidence, in one of the country's greatest banking fraud cases?
Not even Hitchcock could have dreamed up that episode.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: The Subbie on May 26, 2017, 01:36:00 AM
Quote from: Avondhu star on May 24, 2017, 12:32:48 PM
If you want the best prosecution lawyer who can prepare a case that will nail someone then you must be prepared to pay them top fees. You wont get that on the average industrial wage. That applies to every profession. This country begrudges anyone who makes good money and as a result you get tuppence halpenny performances. You can bet Seanies legal team were on good fees and bonuses.

Correct

What I am curious about though is , was the decision to go with the budget option made purely for budgetary reasons or for more nefarious reasons ?
My head tells me the latter
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on May 31, 2017, 09:26:03 AM
https://www.ft.com/content/872500e6-456b-11e7-8519-9f94ee97d996

The Irish government has fired the starting gun in the IPO of Allied Irish Banks, Ireland's second-largest bank, which was nationalised at the height of the financial crisis in 2010. In a stock exchange statement on Tuesday night, Ireland's department of finance said it would sell about 25 per cent of the bank on the Irish and London stock exchanges, in what will be one of the UK's largest IPOs of the last 20 years. Analysts value the bank at about €12bn-€13bn, well below the almost €21bn invested by the Irish state at the height of the financial crisis. The IPO's price range and prospectus are expected by mid-June, the department of finance said. "The government's long-held policy is that the state should exit its banking investments in a measured and prudent manner, returning ownership to the private sector over time," finance minister Michael Noonan said. "The strong progress made by AIB and current market conditions mean that now is the right time to commence that process."AIB has made an annual pre-tax profit for each of the past three years, and reduced its non-performing loans from a high of 35 per cent of total loan book in 2013 to 13 per cent of total loans now.
   
The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Banks index has risen almost 19 per cent in the past year, as investors warmed to the sector.Officials from the department of finance and AIB executives have met with close to 20 investors in recent weeks as part of their regular engagement. Key questions have centred on the Irish economy, which AIB's fate as a domestic bank is inexorably linked to, as well as state policies on banking and competition. The department of finance has reassured potential investors that it has no policy to curtail bank profitability and that it is not fixated on attracting new competitors to the market, people familiar with the discussions said.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on July 19, 2017, 12:24:16 AM

   https://www.ft.com/content/dd3a6f1c-6aea-11e7-bfeb-33fe0c5b7eaa

   The Irish economy is about a third smaller than expected. The country's current account surplus is actually a deficit. And its debt level is at least a quarter higher than taxpayers have been led to believe.

These are some of the startling results thrown up by a new measure of Irish economic activity adopted by Ireland's official statisticians. The measure, known as "modified gross national income" and presented as GNI*, is an attempt to de-globalise one of the world's most open economies.

GNI* — which will be published as an annual measure of activity alongside more traditional quarterly data such as gross domestic product — has added to the confusion surrounding how well the Irish economy is faring as it emerges from the worst financial collapse in its modern history, and what is making it tick.


   Using GDP data, the value of the Irish economy in 2016 was €275bn. Using GNI*, it was just €190bn. The lower figure was reached by excluding the profits of US companies with big operations in Ireland, such as Google, Microsoft and Pfizer, and the effects of the depreciation of the assets domiciled in Ireland by the aircraft leasing sector, for which Dublin is a global hub.

Dermot O'Leary, chief economist at Goodbody Stockbrokers, says Ireland "is one of a small number of countries that have such a scale of distortion as a result of foreign direct investment".

The new measure also revealed that Ireland's current account surplus, the difference between exports and imports, is a deficit when measured against the new benchmark.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Rois on June 06, 2018, 05:53:47 PM
David Drumm found guilty of conspiracy to defraud and of false accounting in criminal court.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Insane Bolt on June 06, 2018, 08:01:34 PM
Quote from: Rois on June 06, 2018, 05:53:47 PM
David Drumm found guilty of conspiracy to defraud and of false accounting in criminal court.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-44287948

Let's see what jail time he gets
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: magpie seanie on June 06, 2018, 09:57:05 PM
How the hell did he get bail? Crazy. His family are not in the State, he's facing 10 years plus in the slammer but ya - you can have bail. Nuts.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: macdanger2 on June 06, 2018, 10:10:19 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on June 06, 2018, 09:57:05 PM
How the hell did he get bail? Crazy. His family are not in the State, he's facing 10 years plus in the slammer but ya - you can have bail. Nuts.

It's complete bollix. If he had held up a bank at gunpoint, would the c*nt have gotten bail?
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: Hound on June 07, 2018, 01:57:36 PM
Quote from: macdanger2 on June 06, 2018, 10:10:19 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on June 06, 2018, 09:57:05 PM
How the hell did he get bail? Crazy. His family are not in the State, he's facing 10 years plus in the slammer but ya - you can have bail. Nuts.

It's complete bollix. If he had held up a bank at gunpoint, would the c*nt have gotten bail?
Well I presume it's a combination of flight risk and threat to society when they consider bail, so holding someone at gunpoint is probably not a great fact pattern!

The gardai were fairly adamant alright that he shouldnt get bail, though my own feeling is they tend to oppose bail almost all the time to cover themselves in the event of an absconder. But by opposing nearly all the time, it's harder for the judge to pay much heed and to determine the people who are genuinely high risk .

The 3 other found guilty got in and around 3 years. He seems to be the ring leader and has an additional charge he's been found guilty of, but I'd say it'll be concurrent rather than consecutive sentences as they are related. So I predict 4-5 year prison sentence with time off for what he already served in the US, so with good behaviour out in not much more than 2. On that basis, I'd say it's safe enough that he'll suck it up.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: magpie seanie on June 07, 2018, 02:33:31 PM
Quote from: Hound on June 07, 2018, 01:57:36 PM
Quote from: macdanger2 on June 06, 2018, 10:10:19 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on June 06, 2018, 09:57:05 PM
How the hell did he get bail? Crazy. His family are not in the State, he's facing 10 years plus in the slammer but ya - you can have bail. Nuts.

It's complete bollix. If he had held up a bank at gunpoint, would the c*nt have gotten bail?
Well I presume it's a combination of flight risk and threat to society when they consider bail, so holding someone at gunpoint is probably not a great fact pattern!

The gardai were fairly adamant alright that he shouldnt get bail, though my own feeling is they tend to oppose bail almost all the time to cover themselves in the event of an absconder. But by opposing nearly all the time, it's harder for the judge to pay much heed and to determine the people who are genuinely high risk .

The 3 other found guilty got in and around 3 years. He seems to be the ring leader and has an additional charge he's been found guilty of, but I'd say it'll be concurrent rather than consecutive sentences as they are related. So I predict 4-5 year prison sentence with time off for what he already served in the US, so with good behaviour out in not much more than 2. On that basis, I'd say it's safe enough that he'll suck it up.

I thought I read somewhere yesterday that the sentence for one of the charges is 10 years and for the other there is no maximum sentence. Perhaps someone can confirm that??
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: gerrykeegan on June 07, 2018, 05:56:39 PM
I heard those exact details. I would agree with Hound somewhere around 5 years
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: macdanger2 on June 07, 2018, 11:08:43 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on June 07, 2018, 02:33:31 PM
Quote from: Hound on June 07, 2018, 01:57:36 PM
Quote from: macdanger2 on June 06, 2018, 10:10:19 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on June 06, 2018, 09:57:05 PM
How the hell did he get bail? Crazy. His family are not in the State, he's facing 10 years plus in the slammer but ya - you can have bail. Nuts.

It's complete bollix. If he had held up a bank at gunpoint, would the c*nt have gotten bail?
Well I presume it's a combination of flight risk and threat to society when they consider bail, so holding someone at gunpoint is probably not a great fact pattern!

The gardai were fairly adamant alright that he shouldnt get bail, though my own feeling is they tend to oppose bail almost all the time to cover themselves in the event of an absconder. But by opposing nearly all the time, it's harder for the judge to pay much heed and to determine the people who are genuinely high risk .

The 3 other found guilty got in and around 3 years. He seems to be the ring leader and has an additional charge he's been found guilty of, but I'd say it'll be concurrent rather than consecutive sentences as they are related. So I predict 4-5 year prison sentence with time off for what he already served in the US, so with good behaviour out in not much more than 2. On that basis, I'd say it's safe enough that he'll suck it up.

I thought I read somewhere yesterday that the sentence for one of the charges is 10 years and for the other there is no maximum sentence. Perhaps someone can confirm that??

Flight risk seems high enough though I would have thought, esp now that he's been found guilty? He fled the jurisdiction previously and if the US hadn't arrested him, he'd hardly have returned.

Someone I heard on the radio mentioned 8 years.
Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: johnnycool on June 21, 2018, 01:26:49 PM
David Drum doing bird, should more people follow?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/david-drumm-jailed-for-six-years-for-7-2bn-anglo-fraud-1.3537997 (https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/david-drumm-jailed-for-six-years-for-7-2bn-anglo-fraud-1.3537997)



Title: Re: The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)
Post by: seafoid on June 21, 2018, 02:36:34 PM
Bankslaughter should be a crime.
Anglo cost over EUR 30bn