Let’s cut to the chase-Sam 2014 is between Dublin, Kerry, Mayo. Rest also rans!

[Ciarrai_thuaidh]

Can honestly say this is the first year in a long time when I feel Kerry have verry little chance of winning the AI. Nowhere near the mobility, speed or depth of Dublin right now. The loss of the Gooch only exacerbates the margin of course. I think Mayo are the only team who might be able to take Dublin if they are going well, but of course, it's a long year and even a good team like Dublin can have an off day.
Don't see Cork getting anywhere near Sam either, some glaring weaknesses there that will be highlighted come high summer.

[BennyCake]

Donegal, Cork and Kerry will challenge. Mayo haven't got the forwards.

[Ciarrai_thuaidh]

Donegal, Cork and Kerry will challenge. Mayo haven't got the forwards.

..and yet they got within 1 of Dublin last year having given away a sloppy goal themselves. I know they haven't got the strongest forward line, but they have the strength and pace to contain Dublin better than any other team. Cork have good forwards, but woeful midfield and fullback line..how you can say they'll go close is beyod me. Donegal don't look hectic either to be honest.

[moysider]

Well that's the league over and not a lot changed from 2013. No emerging teams and mediocrity  and worse from most of the teams. Not sure how we let that Derry team beat us but by the end of the year we might see that defeat as a blessing – avoiding the Dubs in a final at this time of the year and focusing us on what we need to do.

Let's cut to the chase here – this year's AI will be won by one of Dublin, Kerry or Mayo. No other team in contention.  For us to win it we have to win 3 games in August/Sept - simple as. Connacht is a given and we will chalk up the 4 in a row without any problem. None of the Connacht teams are even near us in terms of the pace and power that we play at and we can burn off any of the Connacht opposition in a 10 minute spell.

Dublin and Kerry are likely to be in a similar position to us and able to focus on the AI quarters – Cork might trouble Kerry at home but I doubt it. Can't see anyone coming through qualifiers likely to cause a shock and in fact the field this year does not look very strong – the big 3 apart. Monaghan and Cavan are game and feisty and could be bothersome opponents but lacking the necessary class. Derry are a  long way off what is needed as we seen today. Donegal are gone – Jimmy pulled off an amazing stunt to win 2012 but it won't work again as the aura has gone – can't imagine the Donegal/Derry game will be a sell out!! Nothing much else around Ulster, Cork are decent enough but don't have a good enough backline or midfield, Leinster outside of the Dubs is Div2/3 stuff and nothing in Connacht but ourselves.

So we are guaranteed a qtr. final and indeed the big game for us is the Munster Final. If Cork can beat Kerry then an AI final appearance for us becomes more a probability than possibility (if we avoid Kerry in the qtrs.). We will still probably have Dubs in front of us come September and while it won't be easy we are probably the only team capable of beating them. Hopefully Horan will have sharpened up and learned from his mistakes of the past 2 years and will not be too loyal to certain players.

I'm happy enough with where we are after the league as it is clear we are planning to peak in Aug/Sept. The sloppy performances in the last 10 mins v Dubs and against Derry will be irrelevant come August when it will be all about power, possession and pace – something we have more than most teams. Had to laugh at some of the posters here and some of the media overreacting to these results and the old chestnuts about leadership and lack of forwards being resurrected. This marquee" forward baloney is something else. Of course when we win the AI the experts will bestow the term "marquee" on a couple of our forwards and show that's what we were missing other years. You would swear that Kerry won AI's living on scraps but with "marquee Gooch" converting every half chance that came their way. Same with Dubs and Brogan. Cork managed an AI in 2010 without any stand out forward if you leave out Goulding's free taking. Fact is that we have a team that have potential scorers all over the field and if we rack up a big score spread over 8 or 9 players then all the better rather than depending on a couple of forwards. We have plenty of options in the forwards both in terms of winning ball, breaking past defenders and taking scores. Might add that I see Dillon and Moran as bit players at best this year - both great servants but no longer up to the pace of the game once we get outside the pedestrian stuff in Connacht.

Everything then points to a repeat of last year's final and hope this time that our management are more on the ball. No doubt Horan and his team have done a great job with this squad and put them on a level that few can match. But he has yet to prove himself in the cauldron of an AI final and mistakes on the line last year and 2012 cost us both finals. Hopefully the experience will stand to him and he will learn to read what is happening in front of hime better. This is where we need the most improvement. Anyway we have a lot to look forward to and probably a fair bit of celebrating to do too. We are still 4/1 for Sam so might be worth putting on a few bob to cover September expenses.

Just for the sake of debate I highlighted the bits above.

Who s going to replace Dillon and Andy Moran?

And the bit about Horan and how he deals in a big situation. Do you really think that will or can change? Horan is a lot of the reason we got to 2 AI finals. But he could now be going for 3 in a row instead of being a double loser without too much adjustment. But he did what he believed in. But he has ended up now with a very inflexible squad and damn all freshness and that was his choice. He s going to go with what has been close and failed twice. And it will fail again obviously. This league has eliminated players rather than develop new ones. He s not going to adapt and anybody that thinks he might is fooling themeslves.

[mayogodhelpus@gmail.com]

Mayo are concentrating on the World Cup in Brazil 

[BennyCake]

Donegal, Cork and Kerry will challenge. Mayo haven't got the forwards.

..and yet they got within 1 of Dublin last year having given away a sloppy goal themselves. I know they haven't got the strongest forward line, but they have the strength and pace to contain Dublin better than any other team. Cork have good forwards, but woeful midfield and fullback line..how you can say they'll go close is beyod me. Donegal don't look hectic either to be honest.

Yes, within 1 point. May as well have been 51 points. Dublin were poor, and some players were struggling badly the last few minutes. They fell over the line. Until Mayo get two great forwards, they'll win nothing.

[Ciarrai_thuaidh]

Donegal, Cork and Kerry will challenge. Mayo haven't got the forwards.

..and yet they got within 1 of Dublin last year having given away a sloppy goal themselves. I know they haven't got the strongest forward line, but they have the strength and pace to contain Dublin better than any other team. Cork have good forwards, but woeful midfield and fullback line..how you can say they'll go close is beyod me. Donegal don't look hectic either to be honest.

Yes, within 1 point. May as well have been 51 points. Dublin were poor, and some players were struggling badly the last few minutes. They fell over the line. Until Mayo get two great forwards, they'll win nothing.

I'm not talking about winning it, I'm talking about beating Dublin..which (despite lacking a top class forward as you say) Mayo DID in 2012 and came within a score of doing last year.

If Dublin were out, it would be anyone's really. Dublin were poor in last years final as you say, which just shows that even the best team can have an off day. Over a 2 year period a team is likely to have a couple of those, hence why the back to back is so hard.

[BennyHarp]

Donegal, Cork and Kerry will challenge. Mayo haven't got the forwards.

..and yet they got within 1 of Dublin last year having given away a sloppy goal themselves. I know they haven't got the strongest forward line, but they have the strength and pace to contain Dublin better than any other team. Cork have good forwards, but woeful midfield and fullback line..how you can say they'll go close is beyod me. Donegal don't look hectic either to be honest.

Yes, within 1 point. May as well have been 51 points. Dublin were poor, and some players were struggling badly the last few minutes. They fell over the line. Until Mayo get two great forwards, they'll win nothing.

I'm not talking about winning it, I'm talking about beating Dublin..which (despite lacking a top class forward as you say) Mayo DID in 2012 and came within a score of doing last year.

If Dublin were out, it would be anyone's really. Dublin were poor in last years final as you say, which just shows that even the best team can have an off day. Over a 2 year period a team is likely to have a couple of those, hence why the back to back is so hard.

Id say Dublin have improved from last year - have Mayo unearthed any new forwards of real class that will improve their ability to score under pressure in the biggest games?

[Hound]

Id say Dublin have improved from last year - have Mayo unearthed any new forwards of real class that will improve their ability to score under pressure in the biggest games?

Sweeney is a new addition. He's not a Gooch, but a step up from previous Mayocorner forwards. Havent seen enough of him to know how much he contributes in general play or whether he could win a 50-50 against a tough corner back, but he does seem to be a reliable finisher, both over and under the bar.

[macdanger2]

Donegal, Cork and Kerry will challenge. Mayo haven't got the forwards.

Donegal looked poor yesterday after starting the league very strong, they've gone backwards

[PAULD123]

MayoMick you are fooling yourself if you rate Kerry as a top challenger.

Kerry are a fading act and have been for two years now as players retire and the others start to show their age. The final straw is the loss of Gooch. Since 2009 Kerry have lost Kieran Donaghy, Tommy Walsh, Tadgh Kenneally, Darragh O'Se, Tomas O'Se, and Paul Galvin. They have been replaced by players that are not even close to their level (Peter Crowley, David Moran, Stephen O'Brien, Kieran O'Leary, Paul Geaney, James O'Donoghue, Daithí Casey) not to mention that Tommy Griffin is 36 and Marc O'Se is 34. 

You are also fooling yourself if you think Mayo's league performances should be discounted when assessing their AI chances, but one bad day at the office for Derry and you have written them off!!! You can't have it both ways.

And if your basis of judgement is that some teams peak when it comes to championship football then I notice that you have glaringly left Tyrone off you list. Didn't Tyrone beat Mayo by two clear goals this year already? Also after gifting Dublin three goals Tyrone dominated Dublin outscoring them 1-12 to 0-7 in the next 45 minutes. In fact if the referee hadn't denied Tyrone a clear last minute free kick on the 14 yard line, Dublin wouldn't be in the semi-finals at all. If there is a team that can peak for championships then it is Tyrone under Micky Harte

[muppet]

MayoMick you are fooling yourself if you rate Kerry as a top challenger.

Kerry are a fading act and have been for two years now as players retire and the others start to show their age. The final straw is the loss of Gooch. Since 2009 Kerry have lost Kieran Donaghy, Tommy Walsh, Tadgh Kenneally, Darragh O'Se, Tomas O'Se, and Paul Galvin. They have been replaced by players that are not even close to their level (Peter Crowley, David Moran, Stephen O'Brien, Kieran O'Leary, Paul Geaney, James O'Donoghue, Daithí Casey) not to mention that Tommy Griffin is 36 and Marc O'Se is 34. 

Reminds me of 1975.

[5 Sams]

MayoMick you are fooling yourself if you rate Kerry as a top challenger.

Kerry are a fading act and have been for two years now as players retire and the others start to show their age. The final straw is the loss of Gooch. Since 2009 Kerry have lost Kieran Donaghy, Tommy Walsh, Tadgh Kenneally, Darragh O'Se, Tomas O'Se, and Paul Galvin. They have been replaced by players that are not even close to their level (Peter Crowley, David Moran, Stephen O'Brien, Kieran O'Leary, Paul Geaney, James O'Donoghue, Daithí Casey) not to mention that Tommy Griffin is 36 and Marc O'Se is 34. 

You are also fooling yourself if you think Mayo's league performances should be discounted when assessing their AI chances, but one bad day at the office for Derry and you have written them off!!! You can't have it both ways.

And if your basis of judgement is that some teams peak when it comes to championship football then I notice that you have glaringly left Tyrone off you list. Didn't Tyrone beat Mayo by two clear goals this year already? Also after gifting Dublin three goals Tyrone dominated Dublin outscoring them 1-12 to 0-7 in the next 45 minutes. In fact if the referee hadn't denied Tyrone a clear last minute free kick on the 14 yard line, Dublin wouldn't be in the semi-finals at all. If there is a team that can peak for championships then it is Tyrone under Micky Harte

Tommy retired a couple of years ago as well.

[Rossfan]

Put ye're money on Tyrone then it seems according to Pauldeen.
Wonder was it a prohetic error but when the Ros team/management was being announced in Croker Saturday night the caption on the big screen gave James Horan as Manager
Anyway it's Dublin's to lose as they'll stroll through Leinster except for the usual 20 minutes if they meet Meath and it will depend on how the hunger is in August then.
The awful first 37 minutes v Cork seems to have wakened them from their NFL laziness and they've been on fire since.
So it's hope Dublin have a bad day against a team that can make them pay for it otherwise it's Sam to stay where he is.

[muppet]

You are also fooling yourself if you think Mayo's league performances should be discounted when assessing their AI chances, but one bad day at the office for Derry and you have written them off!!! You can't have it both ways.

And if your basis of judgement is that some teams peak when it comes to championship football then I notice that you have glaringly left Tyrone off you list. Didn't Tyrone beat Mayo by two clear goals this year already? Also after gifting Dublin three goals Tyrone dominated Dublin outscoring them 1-12 to 0-7 in the next 45 minutes. In fact if the referee hadn't denied Tyrone a clear last minute free kick on the 14 yard line, Dublin wouldn't be in the semi-finals at all. If there is a team that can peak for championships then it is Tyrone under Micky Harte

Your points are valid, if we are talking about next year's League.

Derry have made great strides this Spring, but in terms of Championship they have a lot to do to deserve to be mentioned in comparison to a team who has beaten the last 3 winners of Sam and who has won 5 All-Ireland series Championship matches in Croker in the last 3 years. Dublin have won 7 (All-Ireland series) in Croker in the same period.

That is the bar.

Kerry & Tyrone have won 1 equivalent game each. Kerry & Tyrone haven't done anything in the League to suggest this will change dramatically this year. Derry arguably has (and possibly Cork until they met Dublin), but that is based on one League campaign. Mayo's argument is a lot more credible imho.