Westminster Election 12th December 2019

[smelmoth]

It's Miracle of Istanbul territory now, everything has to fall into place perfectly for Labour to merely achieve a hung parliament- the best way to achieve a 2nd Referendum. Tactical voting has to be perfect, the margins of errors in the polls have to fall their way, the Brexit party taking Labour votes in targeted seats has to be ineffective, turnout because of weather / the season has to be in their favour, the youth vote has to fall favourably over targeted constituencies. That's a lot of variables that have to go their way

Based on that latest poll where the Tories have regained ground despite their campaign based on a basic slogan and no substance, it is depressing to think that a UK electorate would mandate a far right Tory party with a workable majority back into government. What does it tell you about modern society and the UK electorate though? The Tories fought a campaign on a basic message of 'getting Brexit done' and it looks as though it has worked. Barring a miracle it appears as though the Tories will get back in with a majority to do as they see fit. Given the make up of this next cabinet with carte blanche to do whatever they want, I wouldn't even rule out a no deal Brexit at this point.

Why so down over one poll which seems to be an outlier in the recent trend. And pools have been plain wrong in most British campaigns recently. A Labour majority seems unlikely at present but as regards Remain - the biggest obstacle to that is the fact that in 2016 more than 50% of people in Britain wanted to leave the EU. Which is a bit of a problem. Jeremy Corbyn's fault obviously....

Who knows what the percentage is now? A more popular Labour leader would significantly close the gap on, if not overhaul, any Conservative lead in the polls. He's simply not a popular option amongst floating voters. BJ DEFINITELY isn't either so it's rock and a hard place territory for those voters.

What stance on  Brexit what this "more popular" Labour leader take? And also who is this individual?

[smelmoth]

Cheer up lads - Bojo might just have had his Gordon Brown "awful woman" moment. Did you not see this today?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/09/refuses-to-look-at-picture-of-boy-forced-to-sleep-on-hospital-floor

I think he is cracking under the pressure - might not be the time to exploit it for a hung parliament result, but a narrow Tory win makes Brexit of the kind that Boris wants extremely hard to achieve. He needs a landslide and a parliament full of swivel eyed loons to insure him against the remains of the centrist fringe rebelling - I'd say the odds of that are receding.

If he comes home with a ten or 15 seat majority, he doesn't look like the Heineken candidate that he was puffed up to be - and there should be enough relatively sane MPs in there to block him from no deal at the end of next year.

He doesn't need a landslide. A majority of 1 will suffice as long ruthless discipline is maintained until the inevitable bi-election

[smelmoth]

https://inews.co.uk/news/general-election-2019-angela-rayner-vote-leave-eu-second-referendum-question-time-1336884


Angela Rayner, touted as a future Labour leadership contender, is likely to vote Leave if there is a second Brexit referendum under Jeremy Corbyn, she said on Monday night.

The shadow Education Secretary told a BBC Question Time special she would support a new Brexit deal as long as it "protects the economy and jobs".

Ms Rayner is now the most senior member of the shadow Cabinet to suggest she will support Leave in any rerun of the 2016 vote, after other front-runners for the leadership have committed to back Remain under any circumstances.


She told an audience of young people on Question Time: "People think we're trying to stop Brexit, that's not what we're trying to do."

Asked how she would vote in a second referendum, Ms Rayner said: "If we get a deal that protects the economy and jobs, then I would vote for it."

The 39-year-old is seen as one of the favourites to become Labour leader if Mr Corbyn steps down after an election defeat.

Other contenders including Emily Thornberry, Keir Starmer and John McDonnell are all in favour of staying in the EU - as are a large majority of Labour members.

'Dog-whistle racism'

During Monday night's debate Ms Rayner also clashed angrily with Brexit Party chief Nigel Farage over his role in the first referendum, telling him: "You were trying to dog-whistle racism and you're a disgrace."

He replied: "You've got an anti-Semitism problem, you have lowered British politics." Mr Farage told the audience he planned to spoil his ballot in Thursday's election, and insisted he will never accept a seat in the House of Lords.

I think Raynor looks like the candidate that would lead any Leave campaign in a second referendum between Remain and a Labour negotiated Leave deal.

You have to remember that any second referendum would be very different than the first. It would be after the terms of the deal was agreed. You won't be able to promise the earth, the moon and the stars on the side of a bus and a different set of stars to another audience. The Labour Deal is likely to involve much more access to the EU market. To do that there will be free movement of people (no nasty breaking point poster), less freedom to negotiate deals with other countries/blocs (no silly promises of sunlit uplands) and greater alignment (nipping in the bud the inevitable drift to reduced worker, consumer and environmental protections). Raynor could lead a grown up campaign without becoming a hate figure on the Remain side. Raynor also has the ability to relate to the northern brexiteer and hopefully talk them back to a more sensible form of Brexit. Sensible is a relative term

Labour have been pushed on who would lead that campaign

[johnnycool]

Cheer up lads - Bojo might just have had his Gordon Brown "awful woman" moment. Did you not see this today?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/09/refuses-to-look-at-picture-of-boy-forced-to-sleep-on-hospital-floor

I think he is cracking under the pressure - might not be the time to exploit it for a hung parliament result, but a narrow Tory win makes Brexit of the kind that Boris wants extremely hard to achieve. He needs a landslide and a parliament full of swivel eyed loons to insure him against the remains of the centrist fringe rebelling - I'd say the odds of that are receding.

If he comes home with a ten or 15 seat majority, he doesn't look like the Heineken candidate that he was puffed up to be - and there should be enough relatively sane MPs in there to block him from no deal at the end of next year.

If people need to see this incident to know what kind of an individual Boris Johnson is, then they have been hiding under a rock for the last few years. There will be a fuss made of it for a few hours and tomorrow it will be yesterdays news. Most of the right wing newspapers will probably not even cover the story. 

I think you are right regarding the size of the majority, I don't think it will be a landslide by any means but it would require the polling to be way out of sync for there to be anything other than a 15+ seat Tory majority.

I'ts really bad when even Laura Knuessberg is pointing out his total lack of empathy.

But yes, the right wing media moved quickly on to TV licenses and some alleged assault on one of Matt Hancocks advisers in Leeds which was nothing of the sort.

[five points]

He replied: "You've got an anti-Semitism problem, you have lowered British politics." Mr Farage told the audience he planned to spoil his ballot in Thursday's election, and insisted he will never accept a seat in the House of Lords.

Considering past comments Farage has made which have touched on anti-Semitic tropes, not to mention whom he's been willing to associate with in the European Parliament (as well as some other indirect associations), the pot here is blacker than the kettle. And as for accusing others of having "...lowered British politics." 

FFS "Globalist" isn't an anti-semitic trope. John Walsh's new biography of Peter Sutherland is titled "The Globalist". Because that's what he was.

[Walter Cronc]

Cheer up lads - Bojo might just have had his Gordon Brown "awful woman" moment. Did you not see this today?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/09/refuses-to-look-at-picture-of-boy-forced-to-sleep-on-hospital-floor

I think he is cracking under the pressure - might not be the time to exploit it for a hung parliament result, but a narrow Tory win makes Brexit of the kind that Boris wants extremely hard to achieve. He needs a landslide and a parliament full of swivel eyed loons to insure him against the remains of the centrist fringe rebelling - I'd say the odds of that are receding.

If he comes home with a ten or 15 seat majority, he doesn't look like the Heineken candidate that he was puffed up to be - and there should be enough relatively sane MPs in there to block him from no deal at the end of next year.

If people need to see this incident to know what kind of an individual Boris Johnson is, then they have been hiding under a rock for the last few years. There will be a fuss made of it for a few hours and tomorrow it will be yesterdays news. Most of the right wing newspapers will probably not even cover the story. 

I think you are right regarding the size of the majority, I don't think it will be a landslide by any means but it would require the polling to be way out of sync for there to be anything other than a 15+ seat Tory majority.

I'ts really bad when even Laura Knuessberg is pointing out his total lack of empathy.

But yes, the right wing media moved quickly on to TV licenses and some alleged assault on one of Matt Hancocks advisers in Leeds which was nothing of the sort.

The woman is vile. Emily Maitlis another

[BennyHarp]

Cheer up lads - Bojo might just have had his Gordon Brown "awful woman" moment. Did you not see this today?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/09/refuses-to-look-at-picture-of-boy-forced-to-sleep-on-hospital-floor

I think he is cracking under the pressure - might not be the time to exploit it for a hung parliament result, but a narrow Tory win makes Brexit of the kind that Boris wants extremely hard to achieve. He needs a landslide and a parliament full of swivel eyed loons to insure him against the remains of the centrist fringe rebelling - I'd say the odds of that are receding.

If he comes home with a ten or 15 seat majority, he doesn't look like the Heineken candidate that he was puffed up to be - and there should be enough relatively sane MPs in there to block him from no deal at the end of next year.

If people need to see this incident to know what kind of an individual Boris Johnson is, then they have been hiding under a rock for the last few years. There will be a fuss made of it for a few hours and tomorrow it will be yesterdays news. Most of the right wing newspapers will probably not even cover the story. 

I think you are right regarding the size of the majority, I don't think it will be a landslide by any means but it would require the polling to be way out of sync for there to be anything other than a 15+ seat Tory majority.

I'ts really bad when even Laura Knuessberg is pointing out his total lack of empathy.

But yes, the right wing media moved quickly on to TV licenses and some alleged assault on one of Matt Hancocks advisers in Leeds which was nothing of the sort.

The woman is vile. Emily Maitlis another

Kuenssberg has been retweeting and giving credibility to Tory smear throughout this campaign. She has continually, without filter passed on Tory propaganda to the mainstream. Last nights reporting of the "punch" to deflect from the story about the 4 year old boy was a prime example. Exceptionally poor journalism.

[Maroon Manc]

My mates wife is a private secretary/assistant for a Labour MP, sounds like there's huge discontent amongst a lot of Labour Mp's with Corbyn's manifesto but for obvious reasons we won't hear too much about it until the coming weeks.

A huge missed opportunity appears to be the trail of thought.

[Walter Cronc]

Jonathan Ashworth caught in a sting. What a numpty!

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/dec/10/general-election-swinson-says-johnsons-rhetoric-puts-eu-citizens-at-risk-of-hate-crimes-live

[imtommygunn]

It is without doubt a huge missed opportunity IMO.

A complete charlatan who would be better of in prison is going to still be running the place. He has less care for people than I would say anyone ever in power.

I am assuming he'll get in but I would be shocked if he doesn't.

[Walter Cronc]

Its not beyond the realms of possibilities that Johnson could lose Uxbridge. He's only ahead by 5k in 2017, closing from 10k the previous election. If hes not an MP can he not be Prime Minister?

[LooseCannon]

I see that there have been attempts to sabotage Eastwood in Foyle. Shameful stuff altogether.

[seafoid]

Cheer up lads - Bojo might just have had his Gordon Brown "awful woman" moment. Did you not see this today?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/09/refuses-to-look-at-picture-of-boy-forced-to-sleep-on-hospital-floor

I think he is cracking under the pressure - might not be the time to exploit it for a hung parliament result, but a narrow Tory win makes Brexit of the kind that Boris wants extremely hard to achieve. He needs a landslide and a parliament full of swivel eyed loons to insure him against the remains of the centrist fringe rebelling - I'd say the odds of that are receding.

If he comes home with a ten or 15 seat majority, he doesn't look like the Heineken candidate that he was puffed up to be - and there should be enough relatively sane MPs in there to block him from no deal at the end of next year.

If people need to see this incident to know what kind of an individual Boris Johnson is, then they have been hiding under a rock for the last few years. There will be a fuss made of it for a few hours and tomorrow it will be yesterdays news. Most of the right wing newspapers will probably not even cover the story. 

I think you are right regarding the size of the majority, I don't think it will be a landslide by any means but it would require the polling to be way out of sync for there to be anything other than a 15+ seat Tory majority.

I'ts really bad when even Laura Knuessberg is pointing out his total lack of empathy.

But yes, the right wing media moved quickly on to TV licenses and some alleged assault on one of Matt Hancocks advisers in Leeds which was nothing of the sort.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Ms_Nichola/status/1204164443866828802

[five points]

Its not beyond the realms of possibilities that Johnson could lose Uxbridge. He's only ahead by 5k in 2017, closing from 10k the previous election. If hes not an MP can he not be Prime Minister?

It is though.

Ahead by 5k in 2017 with another 1,600 votes going to UKIP.

Tories have polled in or around 50% in each of the past 3 elections there.

[gallsman]

Good to see people are managing to restrain themselves when it comes to rhetoric come election time.

Kuenssberg and Maitlis are "vile" apparently.

Morons in 2019 appear to have an inability to distinguish between the fast paced, as near to live as possible action of Twitter and actual journalism.