China Coronavirus

Started by lurganblue, January 23, 2020, 09:52:32 AM

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RadioGAAGAA

Quote from: trailer on March 09, 2020, 12:44:47 PM
There's 110k cases worldwide out of 6 billion people. Yes take precautions, wash your hands, self isolate etc but just a small bit of perspective would help as well.

I know numbers are not your strong point, so I'll try and make this simple.


Within Italy, there have been 622 recoveries and 366 dead. nDead/(nDead+nRecovered) =  37% death rate, but that number is overly pessimistic.

In the same way taking the overall number of cases (7375) and dividing number of dead by that, i.e. 366/7375 = 5% is overly optimistic.



Even for simple minds, a death rate somewhere between 5% and 37% should be cause for them to shut up and think for a minute or two before going on about "just the flu", "perspective", "hasn't killed as many as"...

Its far more deadly than the flu, it hasn't spread out yet, if drastic action isn't taken it will and it will then "kill many more than"...
i usse an speelchekor

GetOverTheBar

Quote from: Milltown Row2 on March 09, 2020, 12:45:49 PM
Kids heading off to Amsterdam next weekend, schools sports trip, as of yet no indication that the trip will be cancelled, they are taking information from  government advice on travelling and they are happy enough to go ahead.

I mentioned about the experts we have on this site but they have just waved it off (I jest of course)

The money isn't an issue, their health and that of the others that they would be contact with family wise would be my concern, the only thing i got from a website that i googled on travelling to Holland was don't be buying cocaine!

There is plenty of schools round my way meant to be heading to Northern Italy in the next month or two. The schools are saying they are going - think there is a bit of brinksmanship going on, if the school pull it, it's loss of money. If the Govt. pull it they are going to be covered. Will be interesting to see what they do.

RadioGAAGAA

Quote from: HiMucker on March 09, 2020, 10:54:21 AM
Age of Coronavirus Deaths
COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%).

That is completely incorrect as it assumes that everyone currently affected by the virus that has not yet died, won't die.


nDead/(nDead+nRecovered) is not right either - as there is a time period between "point-nearest-death" and discharged as recovered that the recovering patient won't contribute to nRecovered, but dying patients will add onto nDead.

i usse an speelchekor

RadioGAAGAA

Quote from: GetOverTheBar on March 09, 2020, 12:57:09 PM
There is plenty of schools round my way meant to be heading to Northern Italy in the next month or two. The schools are saying they are going - think there is a bit of brinksmanship going on, if the school pull it, it's loss of money. If the Govt. pull it they are going to be covered. Will be interesting to see what they do.

Government looking out for its citizens big businesses as usual
i usse an speelchekor

Milltown Row2

Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on March 09, 2020, 01:00:42 PM
Quote from: GetOverTheBar on March 09, 2020, 12:57:09 PM
There is plenty of schools round my way meant to be heading to Northern Italy in the next month or two. The schools are saying they are going - think there is a bit of brinksmanship going on, if the school pull it, it's loss of money. If the Govt. pull it they are going to be covered. Will be interesting to see what they do.

Government looking out for its citizens big businesses as usual

Personally I'd not be sending my kids to northern Italy. Not only would it be reckless but the implications further down the road for me could affect co workers wages!
None of us are getting out of here alive, so please stop treating yourself like an after thought. Ea

Cavan19

Quote from: Milltown Row2 on March 09, 2020, 01:15:52 PM
Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on March 09, 2020, 01:00:42 PM
Quote from: GetOverTheBar on March 09, 2020, 12:57:09 PM
There is plenty of schools round my way meant to be heading to Northern Italy in the next month or two. The schools are saying they are going - think there is a bit of brinksmanship going on, if the school pull it, it's loss of money. If the Govt. pull it they are going to be covered. Will be interesting to see what they do.

Government looking out for its citizens big businesses as usual


Personally I'd not be sending my kids to northern Italy. Not only would it be reckless but the implications further down the road for me could affect co workers wages!

I though Northern Italy was basically under lock down at the moment.

AFM

Quote from: Cavan19 on March 09, 2020, 01:26:45 PM
Quote from: Milltown Row2 on March 09, 2020, 01:15:52 PM
Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on March 09, 2020, 01:00:42 PM
Quote from: GetOverTheBar on March 09, 2020, 12:57:09 PM
There is plenty of schools round my way meant to be heading to Northern Italy in the next month or two. The schools are saying they are going - think there is a bit of brinksmanship going on, if the school pull it, it's loss of money. If the Govt. pull it they are going to be covered. Will be interesting to see what they do.

Government looking out for its citizens big businesses as usual


Personally I'd not be sending my kids to northern Italy. Not only would it be reckless but the implications further down the road for me could affect co workers wages!

I though Northern Italy was basically under lock down at the moment.

Nope my child due to go Saturday fly into Milan, travel company says going ahead so 50 kids parents have to decide not to send, all about the money!

Hound

Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on March 09, 2020, 12:58:40 PM
Quote from: HiMucker on March 09, 2020, 10:54:21 AM
Age of Coronavirus Deaths
COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%).

That is completely incorrect as it assumes that everyone currently affected by the virus that has not yet died, won't die.


nDead/(nDead+nRecovered) is not right either - as there is a time period between "point-nearest-death" and discharged as recovered that the recovering patient won't contribute to nRecovered, but dying patients will add onto nDead.

All the % figures have to be taken with a pinch of salt. There's an unquantifiable amount of people who have contracted the virus and have only had minor symptoms so they've never been diagnosed.

My relative in a UK hospital said they've had a planning meeting re how they'll operate when 1/3rd of staff are unavailable.
They really don't want school closures as that will mean a lot of staff having to stay home and mind kids.
He said that it's in poo, so again more on the handwashing being so important.
Reckons too that there have been cases in western European universities where people working on a cure have inadvertently being infected by the samples they are working on. Wouldn't say where!



NAG1

Quote from: AFM on March 09, 2020, 01:32:26 PM
Quote from: Cavan19 on March 09, 2020, 01:26:45 PM
Quote from: Milltown Row2 on March 09, 2020, 01:15:52 PM
Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on March 09, 2020, 01:00:42 PM
Quote from: GetOverTheBar on March 09, 2020, 12:57:09 PM
There is plenty of schools round my way meant to be heading to Northern Italy in the next month or two. The schools are saying they are going - think there is a bit of brinksmanship going on, if the school pull it, it's loss of money. If the Govt. pull it they are going to be covered. Will be interesting to see what they do.

Government looking out for its citizens big businesses as usual


Personally I'd not be sending my kids to northern Italy. Not only would it be reckless but the implications further down the road for me could affect co workers wages!

I though Northern Italy was basically under lock down at the moment.

Nope my child due to go Saturday fly into Milan, travel company says going ahead so 50 kids parents have to decide not to send, all about the money!

Apparently until the government say not to travel to a certain area, then insurance won't pay out on cancelled or changed travel plans.

RadioGAAGAA

Quote from: Hound on March 09, 2020, 01:54:17 PM
Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on March 09, 2020, 12:58:40 PM
Quote from: HiMucker on March 09, 2020, 10:54:21 AM
Age of Coronavirus Deaths
COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%).

That is completely incorrect as it assumes that everyone currently affected by the virus that has not yet died, won't die.


nDead/(nDead+nRecovered) is not right either - as there is a time period between "point-nearest-death" and discharged as recovered that the recovering patient won't contribute to nRecovered, but dying patients will add onto nDead.

All the % figures have to be taken with a pinch of salt. There's an unquantifiable amount of people who have contracted the virus and have only had minor symptoms so they've never been diagnosed.

That is true, and unfortunately its a double edge sword*.

Usually said figures are used for putting in context the argument of "its the same as the flu" - in which case the same yardstick applies to it - many go undiagnosed and not part of statistics as they present as very minor symptoms.


*If its a large number of people undiagnosed, then that means mortality rate is lower = good. But it also means many more unsuspecting carriers spreading it around to vulnerable folks. If its a small number of people undiagnosed, then that means mortality rate is higher = bad.

i usse an speelchekor

Art Mc Crory’s Sofa

Have heard from a health care worker that due to the pressure on icu in Italy that they're implementing a triage system. Effectively that means everyone above a certain age or with a complicating factor is denied access to ICU and left to fight the disease themselves on a side ward. The vast majority of these patients will invariably die.

RadioGAAGAA

Quote from: NAG1 on March 09, 2020, 02:07:49 PM
Apparently until the government say not to travel to a certain area, then insurance won't pay out on cancelled or changed travel plans.

Indeed.

So just why are the government so reluctant to take the action that would stop the virus coming back en-mass to schools via trips?
i usse an speelchekor

AFM

Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on March 09, 2020, 02:10:31 PM
Quote from: NAG1 on March 09, 2020, 02:07:49 PM
Apparently until the government say not to travel to a certain area, then insurance won't pay out on cancelled or changed travel plans.

Indeed.

So just why are the government so reluctant to take the action that would stop the virus coming back en-mass to schools via trips?

Money - when money is involved nothing else matters!

BennyCake

Quote from: AFM on March 09, 2020, 02:24:21 PM
Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on March 09, 2020, 02:10:31 PM
Quote from: NAG1 on March 09, 2020, 02:07:49 PM
Apparently until the government say not to travel to a certain area, then insurance won't pay out on cancelled or changed travel plans.

Indeed.

So just why are the government so reluctant to take the action that would stop the virus coming back en-mass to schools via trips?

Money - when money is involved nothing else matters!

Yup!

thebuzz

Quote from: Hound on March 09, 2020, 01:54:17 PM
Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on March 09, 2020, 12:58:40 PM
Quote from: HiMucker on March 09, 2020, 10:54:21 AM
Age of Coronavirus Deaths
COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%).

That is completely incorrect as it assumes that everyone currently affected by the virus that has not yet died, won't die.


nDead/(nDead+nRecovered) is not right either - as there is a time period between "point-nearest-death" and discharged as recovered that the recovering patient won't contribute to nRecovered, but dying patients will add onto nDead.

All the % figures have to be taken with a pinch of salt. There's an unquantifiable amount of people who have contracted the virus and have only had minor symptoms so they've never been diagnosed.

My relative in a UK hospital said they've had a planning meeting re how they'll operate when 1/3rd of staff are unavailable.
They really don't want school closures as that will mean a lot of staff having to stay home and mind kids.
He said that it's in poo, so again more on the handwashing being so important.
Reckons too that there have been cases in western European universities where people working on a cure have inadvertently being infected by the samples they are working on. Wouldn't say where!

Hound the main method of transmission is most definitely not via poo.