China Coronavirus

[armaghniac]

This site give a lot of stats.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Interesting that S Korea have 1500 more cases than Italy but less than quarter of the deaths. What's going on there? Is it a cultural thing were Asians tend to more deferential to authority therefore self isolating much more thoroughly? Can't imagine their healthcare is significantly better to create such a gap.

Might be a factor although it could Possibly be age demographics. Does that area of Italy have a higher ageing population?

The death rate may be partly a function of the date when the person got the disease, South Korea may be a few days behind.
But also in Italy health care people had picked up the pox in the early days and this could have brought it to other ill people.

[omagh_gael]

Done a bit of looking around and this appears to be the variable that's significantly different in S Korea...

https://www.businessinsider.com/south-korea-coronavirus-testing-death-rate-2020-3

The US and South Korea announced their first cases of the coronavirus on the same day: January 20. More than six weeks later, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has tested around 1,500 people for the virus. South Korea, meanwhile, has tested about 140,000

[Ed Ricketts]

This is why Covid19 is so dangerous. This is a modern country with excellent healthcare facilities, they are sending out a stark warning.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-italy-doctors-intensive-care-deaths-a9384356.html

Up to 10% of cases needing intensive care treatment.

In the north there are approx. 100 intensive care beds in total.

And only 20% of these are not already occupied. So that's 20 available beds for the entire region.

At a 10% rate of admission to ICU, we start to run out of facilities to adequately treat people once you have more than 200 concurrent cases.

Barring a miracle, an unprecedented shitstorm is coming that will kill thousands of people around us. Most of these will be elderly and/ or already ill, but I'm not sure that's a good enough reason to just write off other human beings.

This isn't swine flu or bird flu or SARS or regular old flu. This is a threat unparalleled in our lifetimes. Any lingering flippancy or ignorance of the gravity of the situation is unforgivable - the facts are out there for everyone to access.

[charlieTully]

Great idea austerity proved to be....

[thewobbler]

This is why Covid19 is so dangerous. This is a modern country with excellent healthcare facilities, they are sending out a stark warning.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-italy-doctors-intensive-care-deaths-a9384356.html

Up to 10% of cases needing intensive care treatment.

In the north there are approx. 100 intensive care beds in total.

And only 20% of these are not already occupied. So that's 20 available beds for the entire region.

At a 10% rate of admission to ICU, we start to run out of facilities to adequately treat people once you have more than 200 concurrent cases.

Barring a miracle, an unprecedented shitstorm is coming that will kill thousands of people around us. Most of these will be elderly and/ or already ill, but I'm not sure that's a good enough reason to just write off other human beings.

This isn't swine flu or bird flu or SARS or regular old flu. This is a threat unparalleled in our lifetimes. Any lingering flippancy or ignorance of the gravity of the situation is unforgivable - the facts are out there for everyone to access.

The one thing that's clear above all other things right now, is that you have succumbed to confirmation bias.

[ONeill]

At least we don't have the wankers coming on and quoting suicide rates or heart disease rates.  The gaaboard rises above that shit.

[armaghniac]

Barring a miracle, an unprecedented shitstorm is coming that will kill thousands of people around us. Most of these will be elderly and/ or already ill, but I'm not sure that's a good enough reason to just write off other human beings.

Some people think t]hat it is a good enough reason so that they won't be inconvenienced.

[Ed Ricketts]

This is why Covid19 is so dangerous. This is a modern country with excellent healthcare facilities, they are sending out a stark warning.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-italy-doctors-intensive-care-deaths-a9384356.html

Up to 10% of cases needing intensive care treatment.

In the north there are approx. 100 intensive care beds in total.

And only 20% of these are not already occupied. So that's 20 available beds for the entire region.

At a 10% rate of admission to ICU, we start to run out of facilities to adequately treat people once you have more than 200 concurrent cases.

Barring a miracle, an unprecedented shitstorm is coming that will kill thousands of people around us. Most of these will be elderly and/ or already ill, but I'm not sure that's a good enough reason to just write off other human beings.

This isn't swine flu or bird flu or SARS or regular old flu. This is a threat unparalleled in our lifetimes. Any lingering flippancy or ignorance of the gravity of the situation is unforgivable - the facts are out there for everyone to access.

The one thing that's clear above all other things right now, is that you have succumbed to confirmation bias.

A predictably trite contribution from the board's contrarian in chief. You'd do well to quit always trying to find the other side of things - most often it's just not there.

[RadioGAAGAA]

So why wasn't the airports essentially shutdown 4 weeks ago?

Would cause a helluva lot less trouble than this is going to cause.

Yup. My thoughts exactly.

But why stop there.... when you could close down a whole country  instead?

Except you can't.

That is PRECISELY the point.

Shut down the interface from this country to others and then activity within the country can more or less continue unabated.

Now its gonna be a right shit show.

[imtommygunn]

It always boils down to money.

[RadioGAAGAA]

The one thing that's clear above all other things right now, is that you have succumbed to confirmation bias.

Sorry wobbler but that dismissing reality through ignorance.

If you care to go look at the numbers coming through from other countries aside from Italy, you'll see its between 10-20% of cases are either severe or critical. [Those that will need ventilators etc.]

[thewobbler]

Ed. You've seem to be at a point where you're recommending that Northern Ireland should seek to emulate Italy, where that the notable difference in approaches to date is that after suffering dozens of cases, some senior doctors in Italy have gone on record with a belief that a shitshow is coming, while urging people to take it seriously.

What them, you, Radio and Tommy just don't seem willing to accept is that our health system will never cope with a nationwide pandemic. It's just not possible to scale a health service by 40%, 50%, 100%, and to react unilaterally to a condition that is non-threatening to the majority of people who contract it, ahead of their usual daily dose of threatening stuff, would be wrong.

This isn't just about money Tommy. The basic fundamental truth is that we live in a service society. When you start shutting down services, a snowball starts forming. You are off the believe that the Coronavirus snowball is worse than anything a societal meltdown might bring. Personally I make you wrong.

Radio, let's leave money aside. Both the UK and Ireland agree to close their ports and airports, and to close them to each other. Honestly, how long until anarchy?

[thewobbler]

The one thing that's clear above all other things right now, is that you have succumbed to confirmation bias.

Sorry wobbler but that dismissing reality through ignorance.

If you care to go look at the numbers coming through from other countries aside from Italy, you'll see its between 10-20% of cases are either severe or critical. [Those that will need ventilators etc.]

Radio see rely above.

The easiest thing for anyone to do is to start blaming the government.

The right thing to do is to fight that thought pattern. If this has genuine potential for a national pandemic, then don't waste time in fantasy land where doctors, nurses, beds, medical equipment and drugs can be upscaled by double digit percentages within a couple of months.

Just say your prayers.

[RadioGAAGAA]

Radio, let's leave money aside. Both the UK and Ireland agree to close their ports and airports, and to close them to each other. Honestly, how long until anarchy?

Just what do you think is coming down the track if they don't?

[RadioGAAGAA]

Radio see rely above.

The easiest thing for anyone to do is to start blami

It **is** the governments fault.

They sat on it in the critical first phase and its too late now. They are still about 4-6 weeks behind where they need to be in taking action.

Travel to/from Italy should have been stopped weeks ago. Its **still** ongoing.
Travel to/from China should have been stopped months ago. Its **still** ongoing.

Anyone coming in from a known infection hotspot should be placed in isolation, not self-isolation (which many are paying lip service to), for 20 days.


The later they leave it to get real about dealing with this, the worse its going to be.

Your on about anarchy 'cos of stopping travel? Just what the f**k you think is going to happen when folks are sick - or their children are sick, cannot get medication cos the pharmacies are sold out and cannot go to the hospitals because they've essentially collapsed under the weight of this?

You - and an awful lot of other people - need to get f**king real about what's coming - no solidarity posts on social media are gonna fix this for the snowflakes.


The Spanish flu had a mortality rate of less than 1% (less dangerous than this), it infected 800,000 people in Ireland over about 20 months and killed around 23,000.