China Coronavirus

Started by lurganblue, January 23, 2020, 09:52:32 AM

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macdanger2

Quote from: Main Street on February 27, 2020, 10:21:02 PM
Well, the evidence points to that there is immunity.There are degrees of immunity and that is blatantly evident in that the vast majority of those who get exposed to this virus either can adapt with no symptoms or experience mild symptoms. That is what defines a good immune reaction.
And the evidence as recorded, is that immune response learned from experiencing one flu  can be used in part  against another flu strain, family diffferences notwithstanding.

This is not a flu virus!!! The only relationship it has to the flu virus is that it causes respiratory problems. It's like saying sharks and wolves are the same because they're both vertebrates and they both bite. From a technical point of view, the flu viruses are classified as follows (taken from wiki):

Realm:  Riboviria 
Phylum:  Negarnaviricota 
Class:  Insthoviricetes 
Order:  Articulavirales 
Family:  Orthomyxoviridae 

While the corona virus is:

Realm:  Riboviria 
Phylum:  incertae sedis 
Order:  Nidovirales 
Family:  Coronaviridae 

The fact that most people get mild symptoms cannot be attributed to an underlying immunity gained from previous flu viruses (unless there is actual studies proving this) - as shown by the fact that very young children (who would have low underlying immunity) are apparently not susceptible to this virus.

Virology is complicated stuff!

Taylor

Quote from: armaghniac on February 28, 2020, 11:36:36 AM
Quote from: Taylor on February 28, 2020, 11:22:53 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on February 28, 2020, 11:08:00 AM
Quote from: Main Street on February 28, 2020, 10:57:05 AM
The idea or one idea about enforcing isolation on an infected area is to buy time for unaffected areas and allow for prepartions. What is the rationale for calling off the rugby international because some thousands of Italians would be attending? yet the Italians will be travelling to Ireland in their thousands and presumably in close social contact with Irish people over a period of 48 hours or so. Either impose a travel ban or allow the mingling. The stunt to ban the game  just smacks of phony finger in the dyke grandstanding.

Walking past a person in a shop is not the same as sitting beside them for 2 hours.
Switzerland has banned events of >1000 people from now. There is a balance in these things.

Like sitting beside a person in an airplane for over two hours?  :o

That too, hence the tracing of the people sitting beside the woman from Belfast. It is harder to trace who was sitting beside you at a game.

But if you go to the trouble of cancelling a game because of the risk of sitting beside someone who may be infected how does it make sense to allow that person to sit on a plane in an enclosed space with 100's of others?

macdanger2

Quote from: Taylor on February 28, 2020, 11:41:44 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on February 28, 2020, 11:36:36 AM
Quote from: Taylor on February 28, 2020, 11:22:53 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on February 28, 2020, 11:08:00 AM
Quote from: Main Street on February 28, 2020, 10:57:05 AM
The idea or one idea about enforcing isolation on an infected area is to buy time for unaffected areas and allow for prepartions. What is the rationale for calling off the rugby international because some thousands of Italians would be attending? yet the Italians will be travelling to Ireland in their thousands and presumably in close social contact with Irish people over a period of 48 hours or so. Either impose a travel ban or allow the mingling. The stunt to ban the game  just smacks of phony finger in the dyke grandstanding.

Walking past a person in a shop is not the same as sitting beside them for 2 hours.
Switzerland has banned events of >1000 people from now. There is a balance in these things.

Like sitting beside a person in an airplane for over two hours?  :o

That too, hence the tracing of the people sitting beside the woman from Belfast. It is harder to trace who was sitting beside you at a game.

But if you go to the trouble of cancelling a game because of the risk of sitting beside someone who may be infected how does it make sense to allow that person to sit on a plane in an enclosed space with 100's of others?

You can argue that both flights and sporting events carry a similar level of risk but one is necessary while the other other isn't:

Cancelling a sporting event - easy and negligible disruption
Cancelling all flights to/from a country - difficult and high disruption




Main Street

#183
Quote from: armaghniac on February 28, 2020, 11:08:00 AM
Quote from: Main Street on February 28, 2020, 10:57:05 AM
The idea or one idea about enforcing isolation on an infected area is to buy time for unaffected areas and allow for prepartions. What is the rationale for calling off the rugby international because some thousands of Italians would be attending? yet the Italians will be travelling to Ireland in their thousands and presumably in close social contact with Irish people over a period of 48 hours or so. Either impose a travel ban or allow the mingling. The stunt to ban the game  just smacks of phony finger in the dyke grandstanding.

Walking past a person in a shop is not the same as sitting beside them for 2 hours.
Switzerland has banned events of >1000 people from now. There is a balance in these things.
Italians will be mingling in airplanes, Dublin airport, taxis, buses, Dart, Luas, pubs, restaurants, hotels, other social events. Not the same exposure as a match, but overall similar.
Exposure is just one factor, health workers aside - susceptibility is a more important factor for most people, it determines how an exposure is experienced.  The vast majority of people who experience exposure, experience nothing or just mild symptoms.

Cavan19

Quote from: Main Street on February 28, 2020, 11:47:25 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on February 28, 2020, 11:08:00 AM
Quote from: Main Street on February 28, 2020, 10:57:05 AM
The idea or one idea about enforcing isolation on an infected area is to buy time for unaffected areas and allow for prepartions. What is the rationale for calling off the rugby international because some thousands of Italians would be attending? yet the Italians will be travelling to Ireland in their thousands and presumably in close social contact with Irish people over a period of 48 hours or so. Either impose a travel ban or allow the mingling. The stunt to ban the game  just smacks of phony finger in the dyke grandstanding.

Walking past a person in a shop is not the same as sitting beside them for 2 hours.
Switzerland has banned events of >1000 people from now. There is a balance in these things.
Italians will be mingling in airplanes, Dublin airport, taxis, buses, Dart, Luas, pubs, restaurants, hotels, other social events. Not the same exposure as a match, but overall similar.
Exposure is just one factor, health workers aside - susceptibility is a more important factor for most people, it determines how an exposure is experienced.  The vast majority of people who experience exposure, experience nothing or just mild symptoms.

It would be a whole lot better if they didn't come.

armaghniac

Quote from: Main Street on February 28, 2020, 11:47:25 AM
Exposure is just one factor, health workers aside - susceptibility is a more important factor for most people, it determines how an exposure is experienced.  The vast majority of people who experience exposure, experience nothing or just mild symptoms.

You make a lot of this point. But it isn't the experience of those people that is important, it is the experience of those they give the dose to.

Quote from: Cavan19 on February 28, 2020, 12:04:26 PM
It would be a whole lot better if they didn't come.

Many will not come.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

Solo_run

Quote from: Fionntamhnach on February 28, 2020, 12:26:17 PM
It's funny how so many people have become both public health and virologist experts nearly overnight - a bit like how so many people in Britain to this day have spent the last few years 'splaining how frictionless international border technologies work.

Like in a lot of things, common sense is required in a lot of situations.

armaghniac

Quote from: Solo_run on February 28, 2020, 12:53:00 PM
Quote from: Fionntamhnach on February 28, 2020, 12:26:17 PM
It's funny how so many people have become both public health and virologist experts nearly overnight - a bit like how so many people in Britain to this day have spent the last few years 'splaining how frictionless international border technologies work.

Like in a lot of things, common sense is required in a lot of situations.

The principles of hand washing have been known for 100 years.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

Main Street

Quote from: macdanger2 on February 28, 2020, 11:41:28 AM
Quote from: Main Street on February 27, 2020, 10:21:02 PM
Well, the evidence points to that there is immunity.There are degrees of immunity and that is blatantly evident in that the vast majority of those who get exposed to this virus either can adapt with no symptoms or experience mild symptoms. That is what defines a good immune reaction.
And the evidence as recorded, is that immune response learned from experiencing one flu  can be used in part  against another flu strain, family diffferences notwithstanding.

This is not a flu virus!!! The only relationship it has to the flu virus is that it causes respiratory problems. It's like saying sharks and wolves are the same because they're both vertebrates and they both bite. From a technical point of view, the flu viruses are classified as follows (taken from wiki):

Realm:  Riboviria 
Phylum:  Negarnaviricota 
Class:  Insthoviricetes 
Order:  Articulavirales 
Family:  Orthomyxoviridae 

While the corona virus is:

Realm:  Riboviria 
Phylum:  incertae sedis 
Order:  Nidovirales 
Family:  Coronaviridae 

The fact that most people get mild symptoms cannot be attributed to an underlying immunity gained from previous flu viruses (unless there is actual studies proving this) - as shown by the fact that very young children (who would have low underlying immunity) are apparently not susceptible to this virus.

Virology is complicated stuff!
There is nothing complicated about observing that the symptoms experienced are similar, whether it is a flu virus or this covid-19

John Hopkins medicine  -  flu v covid -19  - although caused by different virus

Methods of transmission are similar.
Both infectious respiratory illnesses
Both cause fever, cough, body aches, fatigue; sometimes vomiting and diarrhea.
Can be mild or severe, even fatal in rare cases.
Can result in pneumonia.


similarities to the damage caused by SARS and MERS.-  Lanclet

When the body has learned a natural immune response to the symptoms of one virus, that learned immune response is also effective in helping the body to adapt to   to the similar symptoms of a different virus. This has also been the subject of  research on learned immune responses to various flu viruses.
Exposure to a virus is only one factor, the ultimate experience is the body's ability to adapt to that exposure via the learned immune response.
That is one explanation  why the vast majority of people exposed to this virus experience nothing or just mild symptoms,  and in the main it is the people who are most susceptible (smokers and sick people) who experience  the deep pathology /even death,  again very similar to the patterns of exposure to flu virus.

QuoteThe fact that most people get mild symptoms cannot be attributed to an underlying immunity gained from previous flu viruses (unless there is actual studies proving this) - as shown by the fact that very young children (who would have low underlying immunity) are apparently not susceptible to this virus.
Your facts are not yet real facts,  not even Unicef know the why of it all.
According to Unicef https://www.unicef.org/bulgaria/en/stories/coronavirus-disease-covid-19-what-parents-should-know
"This is a new virus and we do not know enough yet about how it affects children or pregnant women. We know it is possible for people of any age to be infected with the virus, but so far there have been relatively few cases of COVID-19 reported among children. The virus is fatal in rare cases, so far mainly among older people with pre-existing medical conditions."
https://www.unicef.org/bulgaria/en/stories/coronavirus-disease-covid-19-what-parents-should-know
Recorded cases  in China in children are approx 1% of total.






Solo_run

Quote from: armaghniac on February 28, 2020, 01:23:39 PM
Quote from: Solo_run on February 28, 2020, 12:53:00 PM
Quote from: Fionntamhnach on February 28, 2020, 12:26:17 PM
It's funny how so many people have become both public health and virologist experts nearly overnight - a bit like how so many people in Britain to this day have spent the last few years 'splaining how frictionless international border technologies work.

Like in a lot of things, common sense is required in a lot of situations.

The principles of hand washing have been known for 100 years.

And to this day people still don't know how to wash their hands properly.

weareros

Quote from: armaghniac on February 28, 2020, 01:23:39 PM
Quote from: Solo_run on February 28, 2020, 12:53:00 PM
Quote from: Fionntamhnach on February 28, 2020, 12:26:17 PM
It's funny how so many people have become both public health and virologist experts nearly overnight - a bit like how so many people in Britain to this day have spent the last few years 'splaining how frictionless international border technologies work.

Like in a lot of things, common sense is required in a lot of situations.

The principles of hand washing have been known for 100 years.

They've been known, but there's a lot of auld lads in country pubs that still don't wash their hands. If some of these old dogs finally learn a new trick, then the virus will have done some good.


macdanger2

Quote from: Main Street on February 28, 2020, 01:33:04 PM
There is nothing complicated about observing that the symptoms experienced are similar, whether it is a flu virus or this covid-19

John Hopkins medicine  -  flu v covid -19  - although caused by different virus

Methods of transmission are similar.
Both infectious respiratory illnesses
Both cause fever, cough, body aches, fatigue; sometimes vomiting and diarrhea.
Can be mild or severe, even fatal in rare cases.
Can result in pneumonia.


similarities to the damage caused by SARS and MERS.-  Lanclet

When the body has learned a natural immune response to the symptoms of one virus, that learned immune response is also effective in helping the body to adapt to   to the similar symptoms of a different virus. This has also been the subject of  research on learned immune responses to various flu viruses.
Exposure to a virus is only one factor, the ultimate experience is the body's ability to adapt to that exposure via the learned immune response.
That is one explanation  why the vast majority of people exposed to this virus experience nothing or just mild symptoms,  and in the main it is the people who are most susceptible (smokers and sick people) who experience  the deep pathology /even death,  again very similar to the patterns of exposure to flu virus.


On the this point, the bodys immune system doesn't respond to symptoms, if it did you'd eventually become immune to the common cold. The body responds to the presense of a virus (and its proteins) in your body. (Viral) Meningitis symptoms are also flu-like, but there is no underlying immune response to that virus (as far as I'm aware?).

Quote

QuoteThe fact that most people get mild symptoms cannot be attributed to an underlying immunity gained from previous flu viruses (unless there is actual studies proving this) - as shown by the fact that very young children (who would have low underlying immunity) are apparently not susceptible to this virus.
Your facts are not yet real facts,  not even Unicef know the why of it all.
According to Unicef https://www.unicef.org/bulgaria/en/stories/coronavirus-disease-covid-19-what-parents-should-know
"This is a new virus and we do not know enough yet about how it affects children or pregnant women. We know it is possible for people of any age to be infected with the virus, but so far there have been relatively few cases of COVID-19 reported among children. The virus is fatal in rare cases, so far mainly among older people with pre-existing medical conditions."
https://www.unicef.org/bulgaria/en/stories/coronavirus-disease-covid-19-what-parents-should-know
Recorded cases  in China in children are approx 1% of total.

Apologies, poor choice of words on my part, I didn't mean that children don't get covid-19, just that they appear to get it less than you would expect (as per your link) - so my point was that that fact doesn't that fit in with your theory of the population having a learned response to this virus.

No point in continuing with this indefinitely but in short, the theory that the body's immune response to one type of virus is effective against a completely different virus is at best completely unproven IMO

Main Street

Quote from: armaghniac on February 28, 2020, 12:16:16 PM
Quote from: Main Street on February 28, 2020, 11:47:25 AM
Exposure is just one factor, health workers aside - susceptibility is a more important factor for most people, it determines how an exposure is experienced.  The vast majority of people who experience exposure, experience nothing or just mild symptoms.

You make a lot of this point. But it isn't the experience of those people that is important, it is the experience of those they give the dose to.
Eh?  That sounds like gobbeldygook, are you saying that it's not important how this virus is experienced by the vast majority of people so far, but by those they give it to?
If that's so, do you think that those newly exposed to this virus will have a different experience than that already experienced elsewhere?

And just how can it be avoided to keep Italians out of Ireland, ban all flights altogether? How many is it, 6 or 10 flights daily, or more?
What about when inevitably it is France, Germany, Britain,  Northern ireland, ban all flights/border crossings to and from those countries?



armaghniac

#193
Quote from: Main Street on February 28, 2020, 02:34:48 PM
Eh?  That sounds like gobbledygook, are you saying that it's not important how this virus is experienced by the vast majority of people so far, but by those they give it to?
If that's so, do you think that those newly exposed to this virus will have a different experience than that already experienced elsewhere?;

It most certainly is not gobbledygook. A person with an illness or compromised immune system would not risk going to this game at the present time. But you have some guy with your attitude who goes to the game then gives the pox to his parents or his girlfriend is a nurse or works in an old people's home.

QuoteAnd just how can it be avoided to keep Italians out of Ireland, ban all flights altogether? How many is it, 6 or 10 flights daily, or more?
What about when inevitably it is France, Germany, Britain,  Northern ireland, ban all flights/border crossings to and from those countries?

It probably can't be avoided by any reasonable measure. The object of the measures is to keep things in in control, a collapse of the health service would be a catastrophe.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B