Brexit.

[whitey]

Murphy's law.

Family friend is selling a house in UK this week and moving back to ROI. Proceeds are being wired in Sterling to bank in UK on August 5th. Proceeds not needed immediately as this person is renting for a year while they figure out where they will buy. Apart from sitting it out and waiting for Sterling to rebound, does anyone have any other suggestions or ideas?

Be a long sit - could be 1 to 1 or less if no-deal brexit happens.

A lot can happen in a year. I think a deal will be done of some sort in that period and the £ will recover.

I told them that Sterling would probably get oversold, and that if it was me, I'd leave it wouldn't convert it at these prices

[omaghjoe]

A no deal Brexit scares the shit out of me but on the other hand I will be extremely disappointed if the EU capitulate to this rag tag Government and reopen negotiations on a trade deal. It's a feckin head wrecker!

Won't happen. Boris sits tough though and gets a good majority in general election. If he campaigns on a hard Brexit he will mop up and take the Farage Falange out of it.  Doesn't need DUP anymore. He will have a mandate for 4 years, put the backstop in Irish Sea, and carry on. In 4 years time, things will have changed and focus will be elsewhere and he will probably get a second term as PM. In fact he could be Churchillian before he finishes. Corbyn's Labour are not even in the ballpark.

Are you suggesting there will be a general election before October 31st? I think you could be right, Boris would be mad not to call one. It's early enough before he makes any major c**k ups and Labour are a complete mess. But the point of my post is that as things stand, I find myself willing the EU to stick to their guns on not renegotiating the deal and forcing Boris into a no deal scenario  but at the same time thinking no deal would be an utter disaster that i wish to avoid at all costs. Head wrecked!

Intial polls look like BoJo might not even need the pact with the Brexit party

While Labour and Lib Dems look to be neck and neck... In other words they could split their vote and hand the Tories a sizable majority.... on the flip side a pact could see them into power via a coalition. Prob unlikely tho Corbyn too much of a fundamentalist.

[Denn Forever]

Corbin a long way from rocking out at Glastonbury but maybe the young members he got then will stick with him

[seafoid]

Murphy's law.

Family friend is selling a house in UK this week and moving back to ROI. Proceeds are being wired in Sterling to bank in UK on August 5th. Proceeds not needed immediately as this person is renting for a year while they figure out where they will buy. Apart from sitting it out and waiting for Sterling to rebound, does anyone have any other suggestions or ideas?

There was a chart in the Daily Telegraph about market expectations

Continued negotiations $1.28
No deal $1.05-1.15
Deal 1.25-1.35
post election Tory gov 1.20
Post election Lab 1.20-1.30
Remain 1.40 
Be a long sit - could be 1 to 1 or less if no-deal brexit happens.

A lot can happen in a year. I think a deal will be done of some sort in that period and the £ will recover.

I told them that Sterling would probably get oversold, and that if it was me, I'd leave it wouldn't convert it at these prices

[BennyHarp]

A no deal Brexit scares the shit out of me but on the other hand I will be extremely disappointed if the EU capitulate to this rag tag Government and reopen negotiations on a trade deal. It's a feckin head wrecker!

Won't happen. Boris sits tough though and gets a good majority in general election. If he campaigns on a hard Brexit he will mop up and take the Farage Falange out of it.  Doesn't need DUP anymore. He will have a mandate for 4 years, put the backstop in Irish Sea, and carry on. In 4 years time, things will have changed and focus will be elsewhere and he will probably get a second term as PM. In fact he could be Churchillian before he finishes. Corbyn's Labour are not even in the ballpark.

Are you suggesting there will be a general election before October 31st? I think you could be right, Boris would be mad not to call one. It's early enough before he makes any major c**k ups and Labour are a complete mess. But the point of my post is that as things stand, I find myself willing the EU to stick to their guns on not renegotiating the deal and forcing Boris into a no deal scenario  but at the same time thinking no deal would be an utter disaster that i wish to avoid at all costs. Head wrecked!

Intial polls look like BoJo might not even need the pact with the Brexit party

While Labour and Lib Dems look to be neck and neck... In other words they could split their vote and hand the Tories a sizable majority.... on the flip side a pact could see them into power via a coalition. Prob unlikely tho Corbyn too much of a fundamentalist.

A £100m propaganda campaign paid for out of the public finances rather than party funds  just before a General Election is also a very cynical way of getting the upper hand.

[Eamonnca1]

Could there be a snap election on the cards soon then? If Boris is gonna call it he has to do it sooner rather than later before he gets bogged down in any nitty gritty reality-based stuff.

[Dougal Maguire]

Given that Parliament has already voted against accepting a no deal exit surely his only option is an election. However if he doesn't negotiate and the only option is no deal what can Parliament do then?

[imtommygunn]

He is talking about putting it through with or without parliamentary approval. John major has said he will bring him to court on it.

[armaghniac]

Could there be a snap election on the cards soon then? If Boris is gonna call it he has to do it sooner rather than later before he gets bogged down in any nitty gritty reality-based stuff.

He can't even call an election without the agreement of parliament. Mind you, Corbyn would probably welcome an election despite the fact that he has ruined his party.

He is talking about putting it through with or without parliamentary approval. John major has said he will bring him to court on it.

Unless parliament does something else positive e.g. vote for withdrawal agreement, then the UK just leaves the EU.

[omaghjoe]

A no deal Brexit scares the shit out of me but on the other hand I will be extremely disappointed if the EU capitulate to this rag tag Government and reopen negotiations on a trade deal. It's a feckin head wrecker!

Won't happen. Boris sits tough though and gets a good majority in general election. If he campaigns on a hard Brexit he will mop up and take the Farage Falange out of it.  Doesn't need DUP anymore. He will have a mandate for 4 years, put the backstop in Irish Sea, and carry on. In 4 years time, things will have changed and focus will be elsewhere and he will probably get a second term as PM. In fact he could be Churchillian before he finishes. Corbyn's Labour are not even in the ballpark.

Are you suggesting there will be a general election before October 31st? I think you could be right, Boris would be mad not to call one. It's early enough before he makes any major c**k ups and Labour are a complete mess. But the point of my post is that as things stand, I find myself willing the EU to stick to their guns on not renegotiating the deal and forcing Boris into a no deal scenario  but at the same time thinking no deal would be an utter disaster that i wish to avoid at all costs. Head wrecked!

Intial polls look like BoJo might not even need the pact with the Brexit party

While Labour and Lib Dems look to be neck and neck... In other words they could split their vote and hand the Tories a sizable majority.... on the flip side a pact could see them into power via a coalition. Prob unlikely tho Corbyn too much of a fundamentalist.

A £100m propaganda campaign paid for out of the public finances rather than party funds  just before a General Election is also a very cynical way of getting the upper hand.

You'll have to enlighten us on that...

[Sportacus]

An Election is his only way to get rid of the DUP, which is necessary to reach an agreement with the EU, I.e. an Irish Sea border agreement enabling all concerned to move on and talk trade.  He'll also need to buy off Farage somehow.

[BennyHarp]

A no deal Brexit scares the shit out of me but on the other hand I will be extremely disappointed if the EU capitulate to this rag tag Government and reopen negotiations on a trade deal. It's a feckin head wrecker!

Won't happen. Boris sits tough though and gets a good majority in general election. If he campaigns on a hard Brexit he will mop up and take the Farage Falange out of it.  Doesn't need DUP anymore. He will have a mandate for 4 years, put the backstop in Irish Sea, and carry on. In 4 years time, things will have changed and focus will be elsewhere and he will probably get a second term as PM. In fact he could be Churchillian before he finishes. Corbyn's Labour are not even in the ballpark.

Are you suggesting there will be a general election before October 31st? I think you could be right, Boris would be mad not to call one. It's early enough before he makes any major c**k ups and Labour are a complete mess. But the point of my post is that as things stand, I find myself willing the EU to stick to their guns on not renegotiating the deal and forcing Boris into a no deal scenario  but at the same time thinking no deal would be an utter disaster that i wish to avoid at all costs. Head wrecked!

Intial polls look like BoJo might not even need the pact with the Brexit party

While Labour and Lib Dems look to be neck and neck... In other words they could split their vote and hand the Tories a sizable majority.... on the flip side a pact could see them into power via a coalition. Prob unlikely tho Corbyn too much of a fundamentalist.

A £100m propaganda campaign paid for out of the public finances rather than party funds  just before a General Election is also a very cynical way of getting the upper hand.

You'll have to enlighten us on that...

If we assume Boris is electioneering, his £100m Brexit propaganda campaign that is in the planning, will be nothing more than a party political broadcast funded by the tax payer for Boris to secure the leave vote and win over a few of those on the fence.

[t_mac]

Labour have no chance under Corbyn and have no chance of replacing him. In an election they will still promise to deliver their Brexit with the promise of a final vote, this will appeal to no-one, remainers or leavers - Labour members should take full responsibility for keeping this man in power and the economic mess that will follow with Brexit.

[haranguerer]

Could there be a snap election on the cards soon then? If Boris is gonna call it he has to do it sooner rather than later before he gets bogged down in any nitty gritty reality-based stuff.

This would also make sense - his hard talk now designed to keep the brexiteers onside, get re-elected and he can be much softer (which he'll have to be)

[Ronnie]

Julian Smith - IYO what 'appears likely' re: the border in Ireland?  Your call.  (Hope this is still relevant re: this topic on this discussion board)