Brexit.

[mouview]

Wonder will Jeremy be giving a ring to the DUP during the night? Ian Jr. might find himself vacationing in the Seychelles again.

[sid waddell]

May will try to blackmail through a deal yet.

i) She'll try to get the backstop dropped. This could go down to the last week with the full weight of British imperial arrogance brought to bear on the Irish government. Leo Varadkar and Simon Coveney could well become public enemies number one and two in the British press come March. Anti-Irish feeeling in Britain could get extremely nasty.

ii) Meanwhile, Corbyn has one chance left to shift ground to favouring a second referendum, and that's when his no confidence vote fails. If he doesn't shift then, Labour will start imploding. May might well feel that she's more likely to persuade Labour MPs, especially anti-Corbyn MPs, to back a deal, backstop or no backstop, than Tory MPs.

[yellowcard]

Sammy has urged her to go back to the EU again to get a better deal. Boris Johnson has said that it gives Theresa May a massive mandate to go back to the EU to get a better deal.

Even though the EU has stated that there will be no renegotiation of the Withdrawal agreement. And this all with 70 days to go. It's anybody's guess as to what will happen now but whatever the outcome one side or the other will be up in arms and a nation will be divided for the forseeable future largely because of the posturing of a bunch of clowns in parliament whose lives will not be affected in any material way.   

[yellowcard]

May will try to blackmail through a deal yet.

i) She'll try to get the backstop dropped. This could go down to the last week with the full weight of British imperial arrogance brought to bear on the Irish government. Leo Varadkar and Simon Coveney could well become public enemies number one and two in the British press come March. Anti-Irish feeeling in Britain could get extremely nasty.

ii) Meanwhile, Corbyn has one chance left to shift ground to favouring a second referendum, and that's when his no confidence vote fails. If he doesn't shift then, Labour will start imploding. May might well feel that she's more likely to persuade Labour MPs, especially anti-Corbyn MPs, to back a deal, backstop or no backstop, than Tory MPs.

(i) The EU have already stated that they would not be renegotiating the Withdrawal Agreement. So unless the EU go back on their word and do a complete U turn option 1 is irrelevant.

(ii) Corbyn is anti Europe so he will not countenance a second referendum. Labour may well implode though.

Not even mystic Meg could successfully predict the outcome at this stage.

[mouview]

May will try to blackmail through a deal yet.

i) She'll try to get the backstop dropped. This could go down to the last week with the full weight of British imperial arrogance brought to bear on the Irish government. Leo Varadkar and Simon Coveney could well become public enemies number one and two in the British press come March. Anti-Irish feeeling in Britain could get extremely nasty.

ii) Meanwhile, Corbyn has one chance left to shift ground to favouring a second referendum, and that's when his no confidence vote fails. If he doesn't shift then, Labour will start imploding. May might well feel that she's more likely to persuade Labour MPs, especially anti-Corbyn MPs, to back a deal, backstop or no backstop, than Tory MPs.

Having seen the scale of tonight's defeat Brussels could rightfully say May is a busted flush and refuse to give her any more leeway. In which case she's absolutely definitely finished. It then comes down to a game of bluff as to who first says we don't want 'No Deal'. House of commons would have taken control before it comes to that anyway I think. Extension of Article 50 almost a certainty now I'd say.

[sid waddell]

May will try to blackmail through a deal yet.

i) She'll try to get the backstop dropped. This could go down to the last week with the full weight of British imperial arrogance brought to bear on the Irish government. Leo Varadkar and Simon Coveney could well become public enemies number one and two in the British press come March. Anti-Irish feeeling in Britain could get extremely nasty.

ii) Meanwhile, Corbyn has one chance left to shift ground to favouring a second referendum, and that's when his no confidence vote fails. If he doesn't shift then, Labour will start imploding. May might well feel that she's more likely to persuade Labour MPs, especially anti-Corbyn MPs, to back a deal, backstop or no backstop, than Tory MPs.

(i) The EU have already stated that they would not be renegotiating the Withdrawal Agreement. So unless the EU go back on their word and do a complete U turn option 1 is irrelevant.

(ii) Corbyn is anti Europe so he will not countenance a second referendum. Labour may well implode though.

Not even mystic Meg could successfully predict the outcome at this stage.

The EU won't move and rightly so. What May will likely hope for is to play a massive game of chicken, or blackmail if you like, with the Irish government. The Brits will spell out all sorts of disastrous scenarios if there's a hard border and paint the Irish government as the bad guys, they'll say that the Irish government are bringing about a return to the Troubles and the British press will go all in.

What May will be hoping to do is to get Varadkar to go to the EU and request the backstop be dropped from the deal.

If you heard the Marian Finucane show on RTE Radio 1 on Sunday, Irexiteer charlatan Ray Bassett was trying to spin this type of narrative.

[sid waddell]

May will try to blackmail through a deal yet.

i) She'll try to get the backstop dropped. This could go down to the last week with the full weight of British imperial arrogance brought to bear on the Irish government. Leo Varadkar and Simon Coveney could well become public enemies number one and two in the British press come March. Anti-Irish feeeling in Britain could get extremely nasty.

ii) Meanwhile, Corbyn has one chance left to shift ground to favouring a second referendum, and that's when his no confidence vote fails. If he doesn't shift then, Labour will start imploding. May might well feel that she's more likely to persuade Labour MPs, especially anti-Corbyn MPs, to back a deal, backstop or no backstop, than Tory MPs.

Having seen the scale of tonight's defeat Brussels could rightfully say May is a busted flush and refuse to give her any more leeway. In which case she's absolutely definitely finished. It then comes down to a game of bluff as to who first says we don't want 'No Deal'. House of commons would have taken control before it comes to that anyway I think. Extension of Article 50 almost a certainty now I'd say.

But the EU are unlikely to grant an extension without a second referendum.

A second referendum would be no slam dunk by the way, and we don't even yet know what the question on the ballot would be.

[thewobbler]

Sorry but I'm really struggling to understand how/why you think Varadker might be influenced or blackmailed to change his mind.

"I'm going to tell everyone it's your fault, and they'll all believe me, every last one of them"

It just needs an evil laugh at the end.

You've been reading too many childrens' novels.

[mouview]

"Arlene Foster, the DUP leader, has welcomed the result of tonight's vote. In a statment she said:

By rejecting the withdrawal agreement, parliament has acted in the best interests of the entire United Kingdom.

The House of Commons has sent an unmistakable message to the prime minister and the European Union that this deal is rejected.

Mrs May will now be able to demonstrate to the Brussels' negotiators that changes are required if any deal is to command the support of parliament ...

Reassurances whether in the form of letters or warm words, will not be enough. The prime minister must now go back to the European Union and seek fundamental change to the withdrawal agreement."


You tell 'em Arlene. The EU is no match for your lot of match-hardened punters.

[Therealdonald]

May will try to blackmail through a deal yet.

i) She'll try to get the backstop dropped. This could go down to the last week with the full weight of British imperial arrogance brought to bear on the Irish government. Leo Varadkar and Simon Coveney could well become public enemies number one and two in the British press come March. Anti-Irish feeeling in Britain could get extremely nasty.

ii) Meanwhile, Corbyn has one chance left to shift ground to favouring a second referendum, and that's when his no confidence vote fails. If he doesn't shift then, Labour will start imploding. May might well feel that she's more likely to persuade Labour MPs, especially anti-Corbyn MPs, to back a deal, backstop or no backstop, than Tory MPs.

(i) The EU have already stated that they would not be renegotiating the Withdrawal Agreement. So unless the EU go back on their word and do a complete U turn option 1 is irrelevant.

(ii) Corbyn is anti Europe so he will not countenance a second referendum. Labour may well implode though.

Not even mystic Meg could successfully predict the outcome at this stage.

The EU won't move and rightly so. What May will likely hope for is to play a massive game of chicken, or blackmail if you like, with the Irish government. The Brits will spell out all sorts of disastrous scenarios if there's a hard border and paint the Irish government as the bad guys, they'll say that the Irish government are bringing about a return to the Troubles and the British press will go all in.

What May will be hoping to do is to get Varadkar to go to the EU and request the backstop be dropped from the deal.

If you heard the Marian Finucane show on RTE Radio 1 on Sunday, Irexiteer charlatan Ray Bassett was trying to spin this type of narrative.

For us nationalist's in the North , what is the best case scenario? I don't like the idea of any pressure on Varadkar, because I think he'll fold. It's funny but in times like this we'd need Bertie back. Leo couldn't care less about us, whereas I think Bertie always did.

[yellowcard]

May will try to blackmail through a deal yet.

i) She'll try to get the backstop dropped. This could go down to the last week with the full weight of British imperial arrogance brought to bear on the Irish government. Leo Varadkar and Simon Coveney could well become public enemies number one and two in the British press come March. Anti-Irish feeeling in Britain could get extremely nasty.

ii) Meanwhile, Corbyn has one chance left to shift ground to favouring a second referendum, and that's when his no confidence vote fails. If he doesn't shift then, Labour will start imploding. May might well feel that she's more likely to persuade Labour MPs, especially anti-Corbyn MPs, to back a deal, backstop or no backstop, than Tory MPs.

(i) The EU have already stated that they would not be renegotiating the Withdrawal Agreement. So unless the EU go back on their word and do a complete U turn option 1 is irrelevant.

(ii) Corbyn is anti Europe so he will not countenance a second referendum. Labour may well implode though.

Not even mystic Meg could successfully predict the outcome at this stage.

The EU won't move and rightly so. What May will likely hope for is to play a massive game of chicken, or blackmail if you like, with the Irish government. The Brits will spell out all sorts of disastrous scenarios if there's a hard border and paint the Irish government as the bad guys, they'll say that the Irish government are bringing about a return to the Troubles and the British press will go all in.

What May will be hoping to do is to get Varadkar to go to the EU and request the backstop be dropped from the deal.

If you heard the Marian Finucane show on RTE Radio 1 on Sunday, Irexiteer charlatan Ray Bassett was trying to spin this type of narrative.

Do you genuinely believe that this is what will happen?

Also if Varadkar goes to the EU to get them to drop the backstop he would be political toast.   

Honestly never heard of Ray Bassett. 

[Therealdonald]

May will try to blackmail through a deal yet.

i) She'll try to get the backstop dropped. This could go down to the last week with the full weight of British imperial arrogance brought to bear on the Irish government. Leo Varadkar and Simon Coveney could well become public enemies number one and two in the British press come March. Anti-Irish feeeling in Britain could get extremely nasty.

ii) Meanwhile, Corbyn has one chance left to shift ground to favouring a second referendum, and that's when his no confidence vote fails. If he doesn't shift then, Labour will start imploding. May might well feel that she's more likely to persuade Labour MPs, especially anti-Corbyn MPs, to back a deal, backstop or no backstop, than Tory MPs.

(i) The EU have already stated that they would not be renegotiating the Withdrawal Agreement. So unless the EU go back on their word and do a complete U turn option 1 is irrelevant.

(ii) Corbyn is anti Europe so he will not countenance a second referendum. Labour may well implode though.

Not even mystic Meg could successfully predict the outcome at this stage.

The EU won't move and rightly so. What May will likely hope for is to play a massive game of chicken, or blackmail if you like, with the Irish government. The Brits will spell out all sorts of disastrous scenarios if there's a hard border and paint the Irish government as the bad guys, they'll say that the Irish government are bringing about a return to the Troubles and the British press will go all in.

What May will be hoping to do is to get Varadkar to go to the EU and request the backstop be dropped from the deal.

If you heard the Marian Finucane show on RTE Radio 1 on Sunday, Irexiteer charlatan Ray Bassett was trying to spin this type of narrative.

Do you genuinely believe that this is what will happen?

Also if Varadkar goes to the EU to get them to drop the backstop he would be political toast.   

Honestly never heard of Ray Bassett.

They have to try something radical or else it's going to go up in smoke.

Democratically what is the purpose of another referendum? The twats of GB voted to leave, why would they get another referendum because of May's ineptitude?

[thewobbler]

May hasn't been inept.

She has never, never has a hand to play here. Her country wish to leave. What interest would the EU have in smoothing this over, and handing out sweeteners?

What a second referendum would allow the UK to do is decide whether it's worth continuing with the process, now we are all better informed.

[red hander]

Sorry but I'm really struggling to understand how/why you think Varadker might be influenced or blackmailed to change his mind.

"I'm going to tell everyone it's your fault, and they'll all believe me, every last one of them"

It just needs an evil laugh at the end.

You've been reading too many childrens' novels.

I hate the Blue Shirts, but I have very few complaints about the way Varadkar and Coveney have behaved over this.

[Therealdonald]

May hasn't been inept.

She has never, never has a hand to play here. Her country wish to leave. What interest would the EU have in smoothing this over, and handing out sweeteners?

What a second referendum would allow the UK to do is decide whether it's worth continuing with the process, now we are all better informed.

She is completely out of her depth. How can you not call the events of the last few days as inept leadership? She was dealt the hand and could've folded, but instead she bluffed the flop, bet the turn then went in all in with a pair of ducks on the river....and has came up with absolutely FA.