The Horse racing thread

[The Real SlimShady]

 

[cavan4ever]

Do u not know slim?? 

[The Bottom Brick]

dunno but she's not bad...

40 e/w of mr paddy power's money gone on Run Beauty, come on hardy!

[Hardy]

Ah jesus!

[Mayo4Sam]

Have quid on a place for run beauty at 70-1 and another 4 on seen and heard at 33-1

[Lecale2]

Stuck the holiday money on Run Beauty to be placed. 14/1 on Betfair. Good man Hardy we'll have a week in Butlins on the winnings. God bless you.

[Hollow Man]

thanks for the dead cert Hardy

I put my house on it

[Shamrock Shore]

SSIA money plus I cashed in the pension today to put on Hardy's cert.

I'll retire on the winnings for sure 

[Colonel Cool]

Jez don't be going over the top boys!! A wee flutter is fine but never bet more than you can afford to lose; even on one of Hardy's mighty tips.

[Shamrock Shore]

Colonel

I think onw should read the above with a massive load of salt!

Run Beauty now at 50/1 

[Hardy]

OK, well the draw is one thing, but if you're an ould sow you won't be placed in a horse race. Hope yiz didn't go mad lads, joking aside. I backed the forecast Hum The Tune and Ardglen Flyer, which had the form to be placed but maybe didn't like the weather!

Anyway - as predicted, the winner was drawn in the inside stalls!

[Hollow Man]

Hardy, i'm about to be cut off from my internet, and i havenet eaten in literally minutes due to poverty.

You heartless bastard! How could you!!!!!!!!!

[Hardy]

I'm going out now to have a dinner for you, so!

[Colonel Cool]

Colonel

I think onw should read the above with a massive load of salt!

Run Beauty now at 50/1 

[Hardy]

More about Bellewstown Track Bias

I've been doing some research on the outcome of backing low-drawn horses in mile races at Bellewstown since 2000 (9 meetings, 53 races).

If you backed every horse drawn No. 1 in every mile race in each of those meetings, you would be running a profit of €37.00 to a €1 stake. If you backed every horse drawn 1 or 2, the outcome would be a €46.75 profit. Include horses drawn 3, and the profit is €37.25. Go to stall 4 and you're into a loss (€-2.00).

However, the bad news is that these results are heavily influenced by one meeting – July 2000, when there were winners at 33/1 and 16/1 out of stalls 1 and 2.  Take that meeting out of it, though, and you still show a profit, though much smaller (Stall 1: €9.00, 1&2: €7.75, 1,2&3: €4.35).

Make of it what you will and of course statistics like this are only sensible over a large number of instances and can't predict a single event.

For what it's worth, the statistics for tonight's 3 one-mile races (17:20, 19:50, 20:20) by the same criteria all show a loss, if you exclude July 2000, except backing Stall 1 in the 19:50, which shows a €1.50 profit . If you include July 2000, they show big profits, but the 19:50 and 20:20 races tonight were the ones that had the 33/1 and 16/1 winners from traps 1 and 2 that year.

(I'm just giving you the statistics - what, if anything, you do with them is up to you).