gaaboard.com

Well looks like we're all fucked, ecomony gone to crap, unemployment, emigration, first time since 1983. So says an ESRI report anyway.
I cant wait till its over so I can say 'the kids of today dont know what its like to live through the hard times'

I'm emigrating to Poland.

Oh well, what can we do only get used to it.

I wish boys would go out and do a bit of work instead of sitting in the pub giving out about it

Looks like a bumpy road ahead, may delay returning home for a few years and stay put.

ESRI reports have gone from holding to reduced growth to soft landing to zero growth to recession in less than twelve months. I'm telling yiz now the next one will be crash and after that man the lifeboats.

I have lost count of the number of seminars I attended this time last year, at which the Chief Economists from the leading Banks in Ireland all warned of slight drops in house prices etc, and rapid falls in interest rates within 12 months (remember there had been a couple of rises this time last year) but there was nothing to worry about over all.

In short I take all predictions and economic reports from the high and mighty with a large pinch of saxa.

Yeah folks, but the signs were there for all to see, for a considerable time, that there wouldn't be a 'soft landing' or a 'correction'.  These economist lads like nothing better than a big news story, to get their ugly gubs on the news - God be with the days when economists stayed hidden in their libraries.

Actually one of them was quite funny. He explained how is course tutor at university always used to tell him, "You'll never get a job, but at least you'll understand why!" :D :D

Quote from: bingobus on June 24, 2008, 09:49:15 AM
I'm emigrating to Poland.

You and about half of Carrickmacross

Well at least Gerorge Lee and David Mc Williams will be happy!!

I have been living in recession for ages. The cost of living has been going up much faster than my wages for years. The only problem (if it even is a problem) is it won't be as easy to borrow. Then again anyone who has borrowed big (with all the promise of a great economy) could in trouble.

All peaks are followed by troughs, but the damn meja are driving this hard!!  >:(

Sold the wife yesterday. Got 2 camels and a spirit level.

Its inevitable but I hope we can ride it out. I remember the bad old days in England when the keys of the house got thrown into the building society and walked away. Would hate to see that happen.

Quote from: ONeill on June 24, 2008, 02:21:44 PM
Sold the wife yesterday. Got 2 camels and a spirit level.

they saw you coming O'Neill sure the buildings have come to a standstill you should have held out for 3 camels

Well, at least I got a couple of humps this year.

In some sectors things are far worse than most people think. In constuction the crowd i work for are letting go 400 professional staff ( contract managers, engineers, foremen, QS's, etc) , if 400 prof staff are out of work you can say at least 2-3000 tradesmen are out of work. The banks are refusing funding to a lot of the established developers (never mind the risky new developers) so there is a severe slump in new contracts. With feck all jobs starting now the real wallop will be in 3-6 months time when a whole heap of current jobs will finish up and there will be a huge shedding of staff. While the residential sector slowed late last year the commerical sector has been going okish up to now but they are the contract whch are finishing up. A lot of the funding earmakred for the large civils jobs has been put on hold as well.
Most of the people i know that are not married.with kids are looking overseas at the minute gearing up for a move

I will expect this current period of doom and gloom /disaster type scenario to change in early 2009.

Recently have heard of a few sites starting up again, as regeneration in Dublin city centre , plus moves to combat the short housing supply re-start.

the 'economists' and 'media' wont be happy until they have someones head on a spike outside dublin castle !

We are 'talking ourselves' into 'another' recession again I see.
OK things are not as financially abundant as they may have been during the previous three or four (I apathetically lost count) 'recessions' but unless the euro melts, the remaining jobs/call centres/financial industry employers etc do a moonlight flit over to bangalore as well, then we still have enough domestic turnover and local economy to not make any effect on the nations trade and viability.
Certainly the building sector is being hardest hit, but with so many cowboys of our own and from foreign climes (who all of a sudden declared they were skilled tradesmen of some description when they were most def not) - with these chancers being found out and let go, the industry will return to where it should be in the not too distant future.

we will see, hopefully this will be the case

The way peopel are going on about a Recession we will talk ourselves into one, you cant listen to the radio today without people going on about it and refering to the 80's. i had to put the ipod on and just listen to music as i was getting depressed.

I agree with lynchboy and that if we all stay calm we will see this out and will be fine!

With Aviva moving 600 jobs from Hibernian to an Indian callcentre, I think that the link below (which Bud put up on another thread) is particularly apt at the moment.

http://www.fennetec.com/ringTommyMurphy.html

(you need sound and probably NSFW)

Quote from: Louth Exile on June 24, 2008, 11:45:36 AM

Quote from: bingobus on June 24, 2008, 09:49:15 AM
I'm emigrating to Poland.

You and about half of Carrickmacross

Well at least Gerorge Lee and David Mc Williams will be happy!!

George Lee has been predicting an economic downturn every year since 2000. Just goes to show if you hang in there long enough you'll eventually be right.

Lynchboy is certainly correct about the cowboys who have plagued the construction sector over the last ten years..
Houses were being thrown up at such a rate that they just couldn't possibly be built right,It was the main reason i bought a 2nd hand home instead of a new one.
I am actually run off my feet at the moment getting jobs in houses that are less than 5 or 6 years old,fixing things that are so badly done it beggers belief.
If you ask me it will be no harm to weed out those "tradesmen" i don't believe for a second that a qualified tradesman who is good and what he does won't be able find work.There is plenty of work out there and if your willing to travel a small bit or take smaller jobs in the hope bigger ones come as a result then nobody should be out of work..

Quote from: The Real Laoislad on June 24, 2008, 04:08:18 PM
Lynchboy is certainly correct about the cowboys who have plagued the construction sector over the last ten years..
Houses were being thrown up at such a rate that they just couldn't possibly be built right,It was the main reason i bought a 2nd hand home instead of a new one.
I am actually run off my feet at the moment getting jobs in houses that are less than 5 or 6 years old,fixing things that are so badly done it beggers belief.
If you ask me it will be no harm to weed out those "tradesmen" i don't believe for a second that a qualified tradesman who is good and what he does won't be able find work.There is plenty of work out there and if your willing to travel a small bit or take smaller jobs in the hope bigger ones come as a result then nobody should be out of work..

You are dead right about weeding out the cowboys and i wouldnt have any sympathy for them at all. But as for good lads getting work, i know of blocklayers in the west who have stopped work because there is f**k all work and it doesnt pay at the current rates of 60 cents/block.
When i started college in 93 there was lads in 3rd year in Limerick rtc who had to do a years work experience. Some of the lads were willing to work for nothing but still couldnt get a job.

Quote from: lynchbhoy on June 24, 2008, 03:59:47 PM
I will expect this current period of doom and gloom /disaster type scenario to change in early 2009.

Recently have heard of a few sites starting up again, as regeneration in Dublin city centre , plus moves to combat the short housing supply re-start.

the 'economists' and 'media' wont be happy until they have someones head on a spike outside dublin castle !

We are 'talking ourselves' into 'another' recession again I see.
OK things are not as financially abundant as they may have been during the previous three or four (I apathetically lost count) 'recessions' but unless the euro melts, the remaining jobs/call centres/financial industry employers etc do a moonlight flit over to bangalore as well, then we still have enough domestic turnover and local economy to not make any effect on the nations trade and viability.
Certainly the building sector is being hardest hit, but with so many cowboys of our own and from foreign climes (who all of a sudden declared they were skilled tradesmen of some description when they were most def not) - with these chancers being found out and let go, the industry will return to where it should be in the not too distant future.

we will see, hopefully this will be the case

At last a sensible reasoned voice.

Yes things may not be as good as they have been for the best part of a decade, but the economy and society does need a period of re-adjustment, for too long now have we had things to easy (credit easily available made people greedy and lazy) I also believe that the teens today have no respect for money or hard work and this MAY imo have been a contributing factor to the massive decline in their manners and respect to their elders and the rest of the pop.

No last thing, we as the consumers in our country need to tell industry  (finance, I.T, etc...) that we are not happy having our problems dealt with by someone from the Indian sub-continent (whose grasp of English may be basic to say thte least), I for one would rather speak to a Dub then an Indian!  ;)

Quote from: ludermor on June 24, 2008, 04:20:23 PM

Quote from: The Real Laoislad on June 24, 2008, 04:08:18 PM
Lynchboy is certainly correct about the cowboys who have plagued the construction sector over the last ten years..
Houses were being thrown up at such a rate that they just couldn't possibly be built right,It was the main reason i bought a 2nd hand home instead of a new one.
I am actually run off my feet at the moment getting jobs in houses that are less than 5 or 6 years old,fixing things that are so badly done it beggers belief.
If you ask me it will be no harm to weed out those "tradesmen" i don't believe for a second that a qualified tradesman who is good and what he does won't be able find work.There is plenty of work out there and if your willing to travel a small bit or take smaller jobs in the hope bigger ones come as a result then nobody should be out of work..

You are dead right about weeding out the cowboys and i wouldnt have any sympathy for them at all. But as for good lads getting work, i know of blocklayers in the west who have stopped work because there is f**k all work and it doesnt pay at the current rates of 60 cents/block.
When i started college in 93 there was lads in 3rd year in Limerick rtc who had to do a years work experience. Some of the lads were willing to work for nothing but still couldnt get a job.

Fair point regarding blocklayers,And i suppose Plasterers are in the same boat..
As for my own trade and Plumbers and Carpenters it's not going to hit us as hard as the above trades

QuoteI for one would rather speak to a Dub then an Indian! 

Whhhoooooaaaaaa!!!! Hold up... don't lose the run of yourself!  :P

Quote from: GalwayBayBoy on June 24, 2008, 04:06:33 PM

Quote from: Louth Exile on June 24, 2008, 11:45:36 AM

Quote from: bingobus on June 24, 2008, 09:49:15 AM
I'm emigrating to Poland.

You and about half of Carrickmacross

Well at least Gerorge Lee and David Mc Williams will be happy!!

George Lee has been predicting an economic downturn every year since 2000. Just goes to show if you hang in there long enough you'll eventually be right.

Ah yeah, sure even a stopped clock is right twice a day

Quote from: The Real Laoislad on June 24, 2008, 04:24:38 PM

Quote from: ludermor on June 24, 2008, 04:20:23 PM

Quote from: The Real Laoislad on June 24, 2008, 04:08:18 PM
Lynchboy is certainly correct about the cowboys who have plagued the construction sector over the last ten years..
Houses were being thrown up at such a rate that they just couldn't possibly be built right,It was the main reason i bought a 2nd hand home instead of a new one.
I am actually run off my feet at the moment getting jobs in houses that are less than 5 or 6 years old,fixing things that are so badly done it beggers belief.
If you ask me it will be no harm to weed out those "tradesmen" i don't believe for a second that a qualified tradesman who is good and what he does won't be able find work.There is plenty of work out there and if your willing to travel a small bit or take smaller jobs in the hope bigger ones come as a result then nobody should be out of work..

You are dead right about weeding out the cowboys and i wouldnt have any sympathy for them at all. But as for good lads getting work, i know of blocklayers in the west who have stopped work because there is f**k all work and it doesnt pay at the current rates of 60 cents/block.
When i started college in 93 there was lads in 3rd year in Limerick rtc who had to do a years work experience. Some of the lads were willing to work for nothing but still couldnt get a job.

Fair point regarding blocklayers,And i suppose Plasterers are in the same boat..
As for my own trade and Plumbers and Carpenters it's not going to hit us as hard as the above trades

I am not so sure about that LL.  The sisters partner is a damn good and well respected plumber.  Was doing doing a lot of work for large developers and county councils all around the north east.  Since March of this year his work has dried up completely.  She had been at home minding the kids, she left a good job in a multi natiional food company, and they were able to live comfortably off his wages.  She starts back to work tomorrow after 5 years out of it because they cannot manage otherwise and he is going to look after the kids along with my mother. 

I know there will be anecdotal evidence like this all over, but it is happening and happening faster than people expected.  I remember listening to a futurist about 8-9 years ago just as the Celtic Tiger was getting into full tilt.  He was of the opinion that by 2009 it would have run its course and that there would be a massive world wide downturn, culminating in a catastrophic stock market crash in 2011/2012.  You have to remember this was pre- 9/11 and pre the second Iraq war.  Also it was at the tail end of the Democratic government under Clinton when all seemed rosey in the garden.  For someone to make such bold assertions under these circumstances was deemed ludicrous.

I hope he is wrong and I dearly hope that we will not slide as far as is possible.  I fear though that with the over-reliance on the property market, a very large level of individual borrowing, both secured through loans and unsecured through credit cards etc, along with th high level of public wages and the growing pace of private employment haemorraghing out of this country, we are in for a very nasty shock.  Our cost of living is going up and things like petrol prices will hit 150c per litre before the year is out.  Our home heating costs are increasing as are our grocery bills.  Employers are less willing to give big pay rises, and there are less jobs out there with more students coming out of university every year expecting a job.  I for one am scared and I see very difficult times in the next 24 months for a lot of people.

Quote from: brokencrossbar1 on June 24, 2008, 04:44:23 PM

Quote from: The Real Laoislad on June 24, 2008, 04:24:38 PM

Quote from: ludermor on June 24, 2008, 04:20:23 PM

Quote from: The Real Laoislad on June 24, 2008, 04:08:18 PM
Lynchboy is certainly correct about the cowboys who have plagued the construction sector over the last ten years..
Houses were being thrown up at such a rate that they just couldn't possibly be built right,It was the main reason i bought a 2nd hand home instead of a new one.
I am actually run off my feet at the moment getting jobs in houses that are less than 5 or 6 years old,fixing things that are so badly done it beggers belief.
If you ask me it will be no harm to weed out those "tradesmen" i don't believe for a second that a qualified tradesman who is good and what he does won't be able find work.There is plenty of work out there and if your willing to travel a small bit or take smaller jobs in the hope bigger ones come as a result then nobody should be out of work..

You are dead right about weeding out the cowboys and i wouldnt have any sympathy for them at all. But as for good lads getting work, i know of blocklayers in the west who have stopped work because there is f**k all work and it doesnt pay at the current rates of 60 cents/block.
When i started college in 93 there was lads in 3rd year in Limerick rtc who had to do a years work experience. Some of the lads were willing to work for nothing but still couldnt get a job.

Fair point regarding blocklayers,And i suppose Plasterers are in the same boat..
As for my own trade and Plumbers and Carpenters it's not going to hit us as hard as the above trades

I am not so sure about that LL.  The sisters partner is a damn good and well respected plumber.  Was doing doing a lot of work for large developers and county councils all around the north east.  Since March of this year his work has dried up completely.  She had been at home minding the kids, she left a good job in a multi natiional food company, and they were able to live comfortably off his wages.  She starts back to work tomorrow after 5 years out of it because they cannot manage otherwise and he is going to look after the kids along with my mother. 

I know there will be anecdotal evidence like this all over, but it is happening and happening faster than people expected.  I remember listening to a futurist about 8-9 years ago just as the Celtic Tiger was getting into full tilt.  He was of the opinion that by 2009 it would have run its course and that there would be a massive world wide downturn, culminating in a catastrophic stock market crash in 2011/2012.  You have to remember this was pre- 9/11 and pre the second Iraq war.  Also it was at the tail end of the Democratic government under Clinton when all seemed rosey in the garden.  For someone to make such bold assertions under these circumstances was deemed ludicrous.

I hope he is wrong and I dearly hope that we will not slide as far as is possible.  I fear though that with the over-reliance on the property market, a very large level of individual borrowing, both secured through loans and unsecured through credit cards etc, along with th high level of public wages and the growing pace of private employment haemorraghing out of this country, we are in for a very nasty shock.  Our cost of living is going up and things like petrol prices will hit 150c per litre before the year is out.  Our home heating costs are increasing as are our grocery bills.  Employers are less willing to give big pay rises, and there are less jobs out there with more students coming out of university every year expecting a job.  I for one am scared and I see very difficult times in the next 24 months for a lot of people.

Sorry to hear about your brother in law bc1.What part of the country is he in  ???.Unfortunately his problem is now a result of him working for a large developer who are all going belly up,I was making the point though that there is loads of work still left in the private sector.These might me only small jobs as in a day to a weeks work,but those jobs are keeping me going at the moment,These are the same jobs that fellas were turning their noses at a few years ago because they all wanted a piece of the commercial work cake,Or maybe I'm just one of the lucky ones who hasn't had trouble getting work,even though i will admit i find it a slight bit harder to get paid than last year but it eventually comes..
Its a time like this that you need to be ahead of everyone else,thats why i am currently doing a few courses in solar panels and energy saving units as i believe this will be the future..
The building boom couldn't last forever and i deliberately stayed out of working for large developers when i went out on my own

He works all over the Louth, Meath, Cavan area as well as home in south Armagh. Like you he has the small jobs, but even they are few and far between.  He is focusing on gettinh into council work doing servicing of gas systems for the council and may have an opening, but he will be back as an employee something he hasn't been for 20 years!

Quote from: brokencrossbar1 on June 24, 2008, 04:58:38 PM
He works all over the Louth, Meath, Cavan area as well as home in south Armagh. Like you he has the small jobs, but even they are few and far between.  He is focusing on gettinh into council work doing servicing of gas systems for the council and may have an opening, but he will be back as an employee something he hasn't been for 20 years!

I do a good bit of work around Meath/Westmeath and often get asked if a know a plumber etc,If you want to pm me his number i don't mind passing it on the next time im asked

in the process of building a house and to tell you the truth i'm getting great quotes from super tradesmen ,as some of the earlier posters said a lot of the cowboys are gone and those that are left are fighting tooth and nail to get the work thats out there. The big developments have come to a standstill for the time beign and its the one off housing thats keeping lads in work in mayo at the moment, for e.g i was getting a quote for windows and the window company are ringing me asking will i go with them whereas before i would have been lucky to get a quote off them as they were too busy dealing with the big delvelopers .

Quote from: brokencrossbar1 on June 24, 2008, 04:58:38 PM
He works all over the Louth, Meath, Cavan area as well as home in south Armagh. Like you he has the small jobs, but even they are few and far between.  He is focusing on gettinh into council work doing servicing of gas systems for the council and may have an opening, but he will be back as an employee something he hasn't been for 20 years!

I know its a horrid thought for him to go back to 'working for the man' - but it is by far the cleverest option.

I'm involved in a company supplying the building industry, and we have tightened up big time. This is the first year in 20 that we have no new employees taken on, and even simple things like the water cooler are going out the door - we'll do everything we can to keep jobs rather than use this as a first resort. We're lucky as we are a family run company, and people tend to be a it more loyal, so there is a sense that we're all trying to work through this.

LL you were a lucky man that you never became dependant on the larger jobs, as these are the boys who are hardest hit.

As an accountant, I am seeing more and more people experience sharp changes in their business. This is ranging from issuing increasing P45's for clients (Builders, wholesalers, retail stores, joiners), sole-traders going back into PAYE employment, landlords renegotiating with banks, downsizing etc etc. The small builder may do ok but any that went into larger developments are shedding workers on a monthly basis as jobs are completed. Our office over looks a plant hire companys yard and it is near full at present, last year you play a hurling game in it.

Banks are literally shitting themslves. JP McManus would have bother getting money and its got very expensive at that. A complete turnround from the "call in and we'll fix you up with a 100% loan" to a "75% loan at best with a gun to their heads".

Larger developers are sitting on huge loans for development land that will not see a sod turned for a long while yet. Banks are very nervous and I wouldn't be surprised to see an Irish Bank into trouble along the lines of Northern Rock before things gets better. Look at th share prices, continuly falling in recent times.

Worst of all though, Eddie Hobbs is on the radio talking about it. Its only since he landed on the TV that the economy has taken a downturn. I say Lynch him!!

Plumbers, painters, gardeners, builders...they're all under the cosh. People simply cannot afford the work to be done at home and the price of materials leaves the above tradesmen in the lurch. We're all doomed. Except for me.

Quote from: bingobus on June 24, 2008, 05:34:50 PM
Our office over looks a plant hire companys yard and it is near full at present, last year you play a hurling game in it.

:o

Quote from: thebandit on June 24, 2008, 05:39:38 PM

Quote from: bingobus on June 24, 2008, 05:34:50 PM
Our office over looks a plant hire companys yard and it is near full at present, last year you play a hurling game in it.

:o

Its not in Blayney or Monaghan Town  ;)

Quote from: bingobus on June 24, 2008, 05:34:50 PM

Worst of all though, Eddie Hobbs is on the radio talking about it. Its only since he landed on the TV that the economy has taken a downturn. I say Lynch him!!

I was listening to him after I listened to Hookie on Newstalk.  they are all saying the same thing and the sooner people get it into their head that we have hit the "wall" in marathon terms the better.  People who quote"we are talking ourselves into recession" seem to disregard the reality that is hitiing the world as a whole.  Do you think the Banks in the States are listening to David McWilliam?  Catch a grip people.  I work for a large MNC.  At the start of last year we brought on 25 new full time operators as business was going so well, this was the first recruitment of operators in 5 years.  4 months ago we announced nearly 4000 job cuts worldwide, with 40 people in Ireland losing their jobs.  Contractors are constantly having their contracts terminated and these jobs are not announced on the radio.  We have approx 250 of them on site at the minute, with 20 having lost their contracts in recent months.  From bringing on new staff last year we have cut staff, cut production and had a headcount freeze.  That is nothing o do with us "talking ourselves into a recession", it has everything to do with the increasing cost of running a business.

Quote from: ONeill on June 24, 2008, 05:37:20 PM
Plumbers, painters, gardeners, builders...they're all under the cosh. People simply cannot afford the work to be done at home and the price of materials leaves the above tradesmen in the lurch. We're all doomed. Except for me.

I wouldn't entirely agree with that,I find there is a ever increasing amount of small extensions,attic conversions,new kitchens,bathrooms etc being done now,All these projects that people couldn't afford to get done a few years ago because tradesmen could charge what they wanted.Now we see more competitiveness in the market,prices are coming down and people are seeing this as the time to get the work in their house done before things take off again

Maybe depends where you are. Was talking to a shareholding foreman of a reputable building firm in the north about a fortnight ago and he says he has had to lay off foremen and teams who have been with him for 25 years. Claimed it was heartbreaking. Last week I spoke to a local landscape gardener who says for the first time in his working life, he can only confirm 2 more weeks of work and has also laid off 3 workers. A brother-in-law is a painter and maintains the same.

TRL, I think it's time you really faced the music and ready yourself for a dark, cold winter. You are only kidding yourself. You are also doomed.

O'Neil by any chance are you one of the Four Horsemen  ???

Quote from: ONeill on June 24, 2008, 06:19:26 PM
Maybe depends where you are. Was talking to a shareholding foreman of a reputable building firm in the north about a fortnight ago and he says he has had to lay off foremen and teams who have been with him for 25 years. Claimed it was heartbreaking. Last week I spoke to a local landscape gardener who says for the first time in his working life, he can only confirm 2 more weeks of work and has also laid off 3 workers. A brother-in-law is a painter and maintains the same.

TRL, I think it's time you really faced the music and ready yourself for a dark, cold winter. You are only kidding yourself. You are also doomed.

Ah you boys wont spend money up there so it no surprise that these lads are getting the boot   ;)

I'm with LaoisLad on this one.

Economic fall-out = USA, following by UK, followed by ROI. You boys have always been slow on the take up. It'll bite ye at the worst time, coming up to Christmas. Suicides will be up and respectable members of the community down there will be blatantly robbing pensioners in daylight and the Guards will be doing nothing because they're not getting any over time and will be encouraging the sale of smack and prostitution as long as they get a cut.

Get out now lads whilst you can and come join us.

Quote from: The Real Laoislad on June 24, 2008, 06:13:52 PM

Quote from: ONeill on June 24, 2008, 05:37:20 PM
Plumbers, painters, gardeners, builders...they're all under the cosh. People simply cannot afford the work to be done at home and the price of materials leaves the above tradesmen in the lurch. We're all doomed. Except for me.

I wouldn't entirely agree with that,I find there is a ever increasing amount of small extensions,attic conversions,new kitchens,bathrooms etc being done now,All these projects that people couldn't afford to get done a few years ago because tradesmen could charge what they wanted.Now we see more competitiveness in the market,prices are coming down and people are seeing this as the time to get the work in their house done before things take off again

You seem to be trying to convince yourself that you won't be effected. Fair enough but putting on extensions now or building from scratch is bugger all cheaper now than 3 or 4 years ago cos while labour costs have dropped, it has been more than made up for the  increase in the price of materials.

Quote from: lynchbhoy on June 24, 2008, 03:59:47 PM
I will expect this current period of doom and gloom /disaster type scenario to change in early 2009.

Recently have heard of a few sites starting up again, as regeneration in Dublin city centre , plus moves to combat the short housing supply re-start.

the 'economists' and 'media' wont be happy until they have someones head on a spike outside dublin castle !

We are 'talking ourselves' into 'another' recession again I see.
OK things are not as financially abundant as they may have been during the previous three or four (I apathetically lost count) 'recessions' but unless the euro melts, the remaining jobs/call centres/financial industry employers etc do a moonlight flit over to bangalore as well, then we still have enough domestic turnover and local economy to not make any effect on the nations trade and viability.
Certainly the building sector is being hardest hit, but with so many cowboys of our own and from foreign climes (who all of a sudden declared they were skilled tradesmen of some description when they were most def not) - with these chancers being found out and let go, the industry will return to where it should be in the not too distant future.

we will see, hopefully this will be the case

Nah LB, we seriously are fcuked this time - I can't see any way out of it, as jobs are lost, so more jobs have to be lost, that's just the way it is.  Each lost job causes at least one more job to be lost, but more likely 2/3, it's the multiplier effect, but this time in reverse.  We benefited the other way on the way up, so we have to take our medicine on the way down.  The only salvation could arise if we were to produce something that people outside our economy were willing to pay for, with our current cost base that's not going to happen.  We are just going to have to sit it out until equilibrium is reached on our cost base again.  The truth is folks we are all paid way too much, not that we're any richer than the rest of europe for it, since the additional wages we have only serve to service the larger mortgages we have.
As for the 'talking ourselves into recession' quote, no so more than when we talked ourselves in a property bubble in the first place.

Over the last few weeks I've sensed a wee touch more optimism among the builders and developers I deal with (Armagh/Down/Antrim). At least one bank is doing 95% mortgages.Hard to get and many small print hoops to jump through.but at least they're there.

Part of the problem in my view is eejits from the banks/universities/brokers etc saying that they think prices have another 10% to fall.If they really believe that why tell everyone?
 

I know that the "talking ourselves into a recession" theory only goes so far, but the boring economics student in me got madder and madder listening to Matt Cooper and the like. For a guy who is a business journalist he didn't seem to know the definition of a recession. It's negative GDP growth for a number of consecutive quarters (think it's three or four) he was talking about the country being in recession because economic growth had slowed to 2 or 3% a few months back.
As for Eddie Hobbs, don't get me started.......some of the listeners texted into the Last Word today asking him about the failed property fund that he advertised on TV and he waffled his way out of it. He can't have it both ways, being a pioneer for the consumer against poor financial advice and then lift a big fat fee from an investment company for recommending a donkey fund.

Quote from: brokencrossbar1 on June 24, 2008, 06:00:19 PMContractors are constantly having their contracts terminated and these jobs are not announced on the radio.  We have approx 250 of them on site at the minute, with 20 having lost their contracts in recent months.  From bringing on new staff last year we have cut staff, cut production and had a headcount freeze.  That is nothing o do with us "talking ourselves into a recession", it has everything to do with the increasing cost of running a business.

Precisely, as most of us know, a huge number of workers in construction are subbies of one sort or another, they're seeing contracts not being renewed right, left and centre, but when the 'self' employed lose their jobs, it's not announced, even worse, these 'self' employed people are not eligible to sign on the dole, so the economy cannot pick up on these people at all.  The first we'll hear about it is when the income tax take for 2008 is drastically reduced.

I'm surprised the sh1t didnt hit the fan earlier.
Agriculture has been fcuked since the turn of the Century, Manufacturing is all but closed down,Tourism apart from English Stag weekends has priced itself out of business so apart from US multi nationals selling to Europe basing themselves here because of low Profit taxes and that we speak English - we as a country have no ways of earning money anymore.
We kept an artificial house building boom going by borrowing cheap German money and selling totally overpriced houses to each other and thought we were wonderful.
Of course the fact that most builders/developers make contributions to FF and most Politicians seem to be Estate agents...... ::)
Now that we need consumer spending to help us through - what do we find -- the consumers have no money because all their cash is being used to pay mortgages on hyper inflated houses which will soon stsrt  to find their real levels.
Near me there's a backwater village ( I wont name it) where they built an estate of houses and were asking €250,000 for them. I think they'll be glad to get €100k soon.
Back in 1996 my brother bought a bungalow and 2 acres there for £42,000 ( about €55k). He is a teacher and his gross pay now is twice what it was in 1996.

Quote from: blast05 on June 24, 2008, 07:54:22 PM

Quote from: The Real Laoislad on June 24, 2008, 06:13:52 PM

Quote from: ONeill on June 24, 2008, 05:37:20 PM
Plumbers, painters, gardeners, builders...they're all under the cosh. People simply cannot afford the work to be done at home and the price of materials leaves the above tradesmen in the lurch. We're all doomed. Except for me.

I wouldn't entirely agree with that,I find there is a ever increasing amount of small extensions,attic conversions,new kitchens,bathrooms etc being done now,All these projects that people couldn't afford to get done a few years ago because tradesmen could charge what they wanted.Now we see more competitiveness in the market,prices are coming down and people are seeing this as the time to get the work in their house done before things take off again

You seem to be trying to convince yourself that you won't be effected. Fair enough but putting on extensions now or building from scratch is bugger all cheaper now than 3 or 4 years ago cos while labour costs have dropped, it has been more than made up for the  increase in the price of materials.

I'm not trying to convince myself of anything,I'm only talking from my experience and what is happening in my business..I have plenty of work on at the moment and have work coming up for the next 4 months,..I made a conscious decision when i started out that i wasn't going to get too big..Employ 1 maybe 2 fellas thats it..
I have seen lads start out on there own,get a few big contracts,hire 10 lads,buy big jeeps and now when everything goes belly up they are letting lads go,they have massive bills in the wholesalers,no work and loads of hire purchase loans..I had offers of work from large contractors.One such company offered me 24 houses to wire in a development,6 houses were built,none were sold and the contract is now on hold..Where would i be if i had taken that job,Up shit creek without a paddle thats where.I know I'm going on a but but basically my point is,Subbies got greedy,They took on more than they could handle instead of sharing it out,Now they have money ploughed into contracts that won't be finished,I decided to stay small,I still have work and have more work coming in
I'm making enough to pay myself a decent wage and i have another fella 3 days a week,Its not as all doom and gloom as people are saying,Its just those who got too big too quickly are now taking a hit,Or as the saying goes the bigger the are the harder they fall

You're still kidding yourself.

Listen, on the QT, I can start up a fund for you. Maybe a dinner dance here, an auction there. Don't worry, we'll see you good.

Every Cloud has a silver lining, we are now seeing the arrogance being knocked out of a lot of people, with the real hard knocks still to come. Real economics are a great cure for the delusions of wealth.

Quote from: brokencrossbar1 on June 24, 2008, 06:00:19 PM

Quote from: bingobus on June 24, 2008, 05:34:50 PM

Worst of all though, Eddie Hobbs is on the radio talking about it. Its only since he landed on the TV that the economy has taken a downturn. I say Lynch him!!

I was listening to him after I listened to Hookie on Newstalk.  they are all saying the same thing and the sooner people get it into their head that we have hit the "wall" in marathon terms the better.  People who quote"we are talking ourselves into recession" seem to disregard the reality that is hitiing the world as a whole.  Do you think the Banks in the States are listening to David McWilliam?  Catch a grip people.  I work for a large MNC.  At the start of last year we brought on 25 new full time operators as business was going so well, this was the first recruitment of operators in 5 years.  4 months ago we announced nearly 4000 job cuts worldwide, with 40 people in Ireland losing their jobs.  Contractors are constantly having their contracts terminated and these jobs are not announced on the radio.  We have approx 250 of them on site at the minute, with 20 having lost their contracts in recent months.  From bringing on new staff last year we have cut staff, cut production and had a headcount freeze.  That is nothing o do with us "talking ourselves into a recession", it has everything to do with the increasing cost of running a business.

for your particular branch of industry BC it is very v competitive, with the unbranded companies snipping at your heels all the time, too much money is spent by yours and similar companies on R&D (you have to though) and the profit margins are decnet IF the product works, but you only have a short uncontested lifespan, which imo makes your industry unique.
More and more people are going for unbranded stuff and your company and many like it are always on the losing end. I worked for a similar MNC who have a manuf/prod plant in cork a few years back - in their dublin HQ.

I'll have to admit I will keep saying we are talking ourselves into a recession as I have seen this happen a few times before.
This is possibly the toughest one yet, but I still think we have enough money and local economy for self sustainability.

If we get a lot more blows below the water line, then I may change that view, but have seen nothing concrete yet to make me believe we are currently sunk.

Quote from: Bogball XV on June 24, 2008, 08:34:23 PM
Nah LB, we seriously are fcuked this time - I can't see any way out of it, as jobs are lost, so more jobs have to be lost, that's just the way it is.  Each lost job causes at least one more job to be lost, but more likely 2/3, it's the multiplier effect, but this time in reverse.  We benefited the other way on the way up, so we have to take our medicine on the way down.  The only salvation could arise if we were to produce something that people outside our economy were willing to pay for, with our current cost base that's not going to happen.  We are just going to have to sit it out until equilibrium is reached on our cost base again.  The truth is folks we are all paid way too much, not that we're any richer than the rest of europe for it, since the additional wages we have only serve to service the larger mortgages we have.
As for the 'talking ourselves into recession' quote, no so more than when we talked ourselves in a property bubble in the first place.

I just dont think we are that far down the line just yet!
We 'bought' ourselves into the 'property bubble' - and that money was spent holds more sway with me than people offering subjective opinion (like I am doing) that has been the case the last few times we were 'in a recession'.

It certainly isnt looking good for us alright. I would like to think we can hold out, but if we endure further large scale body blows (euro rates, interest rates, being forced to raise the corporation tax etc ) then we are screwed.

Until then or until all our immigrants leave (and therefore stop paying rent on houses, plus stop purchasing good in the local economy) we should remain viable.

Long term, our companies need to streamline themselves and rationalise themselves to become more efficient, as the lazy money wasting ways of Irish companies and industry is hard to credit.
We can do a lot more to help ourselves if company chiefs start to see the woods from the trees.
Such a streamlining and efficiency makeover would prolong the financial safety here.
imo.

if our economy 'bubble' mimics our 'property bubble' I will be quite happy.
The property has gone down maybe 25-30% ?
but thats still three times (at least) of what all property was worth at the outset.

I dont think people will be too unhappy if they realise that they may no longer be living on easy street and now are having to graft for lesser pay - esp when they realise that they were prev unemployed or working for fillipino level wages in the 80's!


think people will realise this eventually.

Noticed on the RTE news last night they kept saying about how public spending would have to be slashed?  What's the story there, in the UK increased public spending has always been used in the fight against recession?

Quote from: lynchbhoy on June 25, 2008, 12:06:00 PM

if our economy 'bubble' mimics our 'property bubble' I will be quite happy.
The property has gone down maybe 25-30% ?
but thats still three times (at least) of what all property was worth at the outset.

I dont think people will be too unhappy if they realise that they may no longer be living on easy street and now are having to graft for lesser pay - esp when they realise that they were prev unemployed or working for fillipino level wages in the 80's!

While there is no doubt that property has been overvalued it is still worth a lot more than people realise. While labour costs goes up and down material costs dont reduce nearly as much , especially materials controlled internationally ( steel being a big one) Builder providers were making big margin but there is only so much they can knock off for it to have an effect on the cost of a house (certainly no more than 20% id imagine) . The cost of steel  has increased by  100% in the last 2 months alone and it is still rising.

This recession that keeps being talked aboput only appears to be with the building sector, can the callops of the building sector really be called a recession and most of the rest of us work for Multi Nationals and and can see how unemployment in the building section will really effect us. I think this is being by alot of people into the doom and gloom its not, yes jobs will be lost in the building and service sector but calling it a recession is a bit much I think. Builders and Tradesmen were being overpaid for years so it was always gonna come crashing down when they finally just got to rediculous!

Tankie,
Some people were overpaid ( my biggest gripe would have been shuttering carp) but wages have levelled off over the past 2 years. You only hear of the weeks the weeks where lads got great money, but they never tell you of the weeks they were rained off and got f**k all. Union Blocklayers are still very well paid but they account for a tiny minority of the total brickies in the country and again non union wages have collapsed.
I dont have figures but construction was the largest employement area over the past few years so if it is suffering then the country will suffer. There are loads of job cuts in estate agent, providers, management comp etc. And they all have knock on effects.

Quote from: ludermor on June 25, 2008, 02:10:19 PM
Tankie,
Some people were overpaid ( my biggest gripe would have been shuttering carp) but wages have levelled off over the past 2 years. You only hear of the weeks the weeks where lads got great money, but they never tell you of the weeks they were rained off and got f**k all. Union Blocklayers are still very well paid but they account for a tiny minority of the total brickies in the country and again non union wages have collapsed.
I dont have figures but construction was the largest employement area over the past few years so if it is suffering then the country will suffer. There are loads of job cuts in estate agent, providers, management comp etc. And they all have knock on effects.

13% of the jobs were in construction if i remeber correctly so yes jobs will be lost there and then the knockon effects will hit the service industry i.e. estate agent etc but alot of this will be counteracted by emergration of economic migrants but even at that I do agree that it will effect the country but I this a recession is a whole different ball game as the rest of the economy should function ok and we can rid out this storm.

Hopefully Tankie but i aint as optimstic

The best way to get out of all this in the shortest time possible with the least collateral damage to people is if we start by looking at the situation truthfully and don't go looking for quick fixes or unfair market support for doomed businesses. On this thread there were a couple of references to guys like George Lee and David McWilliams and how they'll now be delighted, or how they were bound to get one right eventually, or how we've "talked" our way into this recession.

That kind of passing the blame is what will killl us - we did this to ourselves. as a nation we collectively borrowed a load of money to sell houses to each other, we ignored the fact that as a nation we weren't earning our way in the world economy, but instead we lived off borrowed money and tax loopholes. This turnaround was coming since 2002 - the fact that we didn't listen and inflated the bubble even further for another four or five years does not mean that Lee and McWilliams were wrong in 2002, it means that we didn't listen and ignored the problem until it got to apocalyptic levels.

Now we have the various cries for bailouts. Those who sell houses or make money from the selling of houses want more tax breaks for home buyers, forcing banks to offer 95% mortgages again and reductions in stamp duty. Well here's the thing - unless you are 100% guaranteed a huge increase in wages in the coming year, then a house that you need a 95% mortgage to buy is a house that YOU CAN'T AFFORD. If builders leveraged themselves to the nines building average houses for ten times average salaries and now can't sell them, then feck off. The best thing that could happen would be if everything they own was repossessed and they were left to live in one of the substandard shoeboxes that they told the rest of us were "ideal starter homes just 6an hour from Dublin" - i.e. Manorhamliton. The one thing Irish people have lost the ability to do is to look at something and realise that it's outside of their price range. I was at a wedding recently of a member of the girlfriend's family - the couple in question have just built what is now the standard rural one off house - i.e. 2 story, five large bedrooms with three en suite, huge living room, huge TV, every modern gadget, walk in fridge, walk in wardrobe.... Here's the thing - she works behind the till in Dunnes and he's a plasterer who even at the building peak was only drawing home a middling wage since his tendency to have no interest in overtime and his penchant for being "sick" on a Monday meant that he never held down a particular job for too long. That whole situation can only end in tears, but somewhere along the line people have decided that this is the type of house that everyone who has any kind of job is entitled to.

Yesterday on the radio I was listening to someone from one of the Civil service unions on the radio talking about how the government should borrow to pay inflation plus wage increases because "we cannot have living standards dropping." In Ireland, the general living standard of the past few years has been underpinned by borrowing - collectively and individually, people have spent more than they were earning, often cushioned by releasing equity from their houses. We could not afford how we lived, so the last thing we should do is go even further into hock to maintain it for another while.

We now need to work paying back the debt, and we need to work at real and productive enterprise. No more looking for areas where you can cream a bit off the top - and certainly no more subsidising these industries. Ireland Inc needs to take a long hard look at what the world will need in 2012 and beyond, to look at what on that list we'd be capable of providing, and then return to being an exporting economy where we pay our way in the world. Tom Parlon, Dan McLaughlin, gombeen councillors, estate agents, militant unions, vested interests, tradesmen expecting double the average industrial wage for 45 hours a week, land hoarders, property specuvestors, marketeers "selling a dream", civil servants who are neither civil nor serve, ye're time has come and gone, please feck off and stop asking the rest of us, who have just kept our head down and worked and will do the same again tomorrow, to finance the handy lifestyle you think you deserve.

If we muck in together this will blow over in no time.

Quote from: Tankie on June 25, 2008, 01:58:52 PM
This recession that keeps being talked aboput only appears to be with the building sector, can the callops of the building sector really be called a recession and most of the rest of us work for Multi Nationals and and can see how unemployment in the building section will really effect us. I think this is being by alot of people into the doom and gloom its not, yes jobs will be lost in the building and service sector but calling it a recession is a bit much I think. Builders and Tradesmen were being overpaid for years so it was always gonna come crashing down when they finally just got to rediculous!

ffs tankie, if only it were that simple.  Tell us what you do and we'll let you know how it's going to affect you.

Quote from: Bogball XV on June 25, 2008, 02:37:05 PM

Quote from: Tankie on June 25, 2008, 01:58:52 PM
This recession that keeps being talked aboput only appears to be with the building sector, can the callops of the building sector really be called a recession and most of the rest of us work for Multi Nationals and and can see how unemployment in the building section will really effect us. I think this is being by alot of people into the doom and gloom its not, yes jobs will be lost in the building and service sector but calling it a recession is a bit much I think. Builders and Tradesmen were being overpaid for years so it was always gonna come crashing down when they finally just got to rediculous!

ffs tankie, if only it were that simple.  Tell us what you do and we'll let you know how it's going to affect you.

I'm not denying that it wont effect everyone but there is no reason to beleive that this 'rescession' will effect the financial, pharmaceutical or IT industry as most of these are Multi Nationals with interest worldwide and can ride out such a storm.

QuoteI'm not denying that it wont effect everyone but there is no reason to beleive that this 'rescession' will effect the financial, pharmaceutical or IT industry as most of these are Multi Nationals with interest worldwide and can ride out such a storm.

Well the financial industry is in trouble the world over.
It would be crazy to believe that Ireland will somehow buck the trend in this regard.

Quote from: nifan on June 25, 2008, 02:51:47 PM

QuoteI'm not denying that it wont effect everyone but there is no reason to beleive that this 'rescession' will effect the financial, pharmaceutical or IT industry as most of these are Multi Nationals with interest worldwide and can ride out such a storm.

Well the financial industry is in trouble the world over.
It would be crazy to believe that Ireland will somehow buck the trend in this regard.

Yes it is but generally Multi Nationals can ride out these storms as they are in so many different markets. like are there may people on this board that are not in the building or service trade that feel that their job is under threat?

Lone shark- great post

Quote from: Tankie on June 25, 2008, 03:11:49 PM
Yes it is but generally Multi Nationals can ride out these storms as they are in so many different markets. like are there may people on this board that are not in the building or service trade that feel that their job is under threat?

The multinational financials are dumping people world wide.
Bear Stearns (offices in Dublin) is completely screwed. Lehamn, Citigroup etc dumping people worldwide and projections look like this is to increase.

Quote from: nifan on June 25, 2008, 03:40:01 PM

Quote from: Tankie on June 25, 2008, 03:11:49 PM
Yes it is but generally Multi Nationals can ride out these storms as they are in so many different markets. like are there may people on this board that are not in the building or service trade that feel that their job is under threat?

The multinational financials are dumping people world wide.
Bear Stearns (offices in Dublin) is completely screwed. Lehamn, Citigroup etc dumping people worldwide and projections look like this is to increase.

These are the banks that cause this credit crunch so of course they will be letting people go but there are alot of jobs still free in this area, just look at jobs.ie or monster!

Surely these multinational banks have no loyalty to ireland. They are here due to the large tax breaks they receive and because of our educated english speaking workforce.

As this industry becomes less skilled due to advances in technology is it only a matter of time before these finance jobs are outsourced to somewhere cheaper?

Quote from: heganboy on June 25, 2008, 03:36:30 PM
Lone shark- great post

Seconded.  Sums it up well.

Quote from: heganboy on June 25, 2008, 03:36:30 PM
Lone shark- great post

Absolutely agreed.

Tankie, I think you are over optimistic re the Financial, IT, etc sectors. I know many people working in Financial services and they are all sitting tight and worried about job security. In the past these people where changing jobs on an annual basis at a whim.

Re the Country Manner that Lone shark described. I know one couple north of the border who have been only heating the house when they have visitors. Hit with a massive hike when they came out of a fixed rate mortgage in last six months and are struggling big time to keep up with loan repayments. Seems hard to believe thats the reality of how some tradesmen have been affected.

Quote from: Tankie on June 25, 2008, 03:43:05 PM
The multinational financials are dumping people world wide.
Bear Stearns (offices in Dublin) is completely screwed. Lehamn, Citigroup etc dumping people worldwide and projections look like this is to increase.

Most of the multinational banks have taken a hammering in the crunch, Goldman Sachs being the notable exception and even they where heavily trimming the staff since the turn of the year.

Quote from: Tankie on June 25, 2008, 02:49:06 PM

Quote from: Bogball XV on June 25, 2008, 02:37:05 PM

Quote from: Tankie on June 25, 2008, 01:58:52 PM
This recession that keeps being talked aboput only appears to be with the building sector, can the callops of the building sector really be called a recession and most of the rest of us work for Multi Nationals and and can see how unemployment in the building section will really effect us. I think this is being by alot of people into the doom and gloom its not, yes jobs will be lost in the building and service sector but calling it a recession is a bit much I think. Builders and Tradesmen were being overpaid for years so it was always gonna come crashing down when they finally just got to rediculous!

ffs tankie, if only it were that simple.  Tell us what you do and we'll let you know how it's going to affect you.

I'm not denying that it wont effect everyone but there is no reason to beleive that this 'rescession' will effect the financial, pharmaceutical or IT industry as most of these are Multi Nationals with interest worldwide and can ride out such a storm.

Financial the lads have already mentioned.  IT, depends what sort exactly, if it's manufacturing then they're all in bother.  Pharmaceuticals are far from immune (no pun intended), they're largely dependent on govts buying their products, if govts have less money, then they'll have to accept less for their product, thus less revenue, less profit, so jobs are at risk.
On a strictly irish level, as I said earlier, each job that goes means an overall contraction in consumer spending, that means that other jobs in the economy will be lost, that could range from the guy behind the counter in the shop to the guy making sandwiches in some factory in Drumcondra, as they lose their jobs then they spend less, and the whole cycle repeats, govt revenues contract, and at the same time, demands on govt revenues increase, that means services have to be cut back, i could go on and on here, but you get the picture.
The other thing, and again, this has been touched on, multinationals have absolutely no allegiance to ireland, they will go where their costs are lowest, when we see 'irish' companies like hibernian transfer back office operations to India, what chance is there that multinationals with no traditional allegiance won't??

I was just on the phone to a supplier in America, and he's mad to export because the American economy is in bits at the minute...... In order to work our way out of this we need to find a competitive advantage in terms of the world market. What was a relatively cheap, well educated workforce has become an over-expectant one, which turns its nose up at menial labour.

I think that attitude is about to change.

The weak Sterling and Dollar is hurting Irish exporters as well. It's very hard to sell into the UK or the US at this stage, and if you do, your margins are under pressure.

Greed. Greed. Greed. Money. Status. Money. Greed. Status. Greed. Money. Greed.

Lone shark,
well put together and so true, some other great ones in the discussion too.
I am wondering what to do, Ireland or America, after I had my mind made up on Ireland it looks very shaky.

Quote from: mannix on June 25, 2008, 10:12:04 PM
Lone shark,
well put together and so true, some other great ones in the discussion too.
I am wondering what to do, Ireland or America, after I had my mind made up on Ireland it looks very shaky.

Mannix stay where you are, the U.S is not the greatest at the moment either.

Quote from: thebandit on June 25, 2008, 05:37:58 PM
I was just on the phone to a supplier in America, and he's mad to export because the American economy is in bits at the minute...... In order to work our way out of this we need to find a competitive advantage in terms of the world market. What was a relatively cheap, well educated workforce has become an over-expectant one, which turns its nose up at menial labour.

I think that attitude is about to change.

Indeed, strange how this form of snobbery has risen its head in Ireland, its actually a bit on the bizarre side. 

There is a class system in Ireland though and its truly laughable

people have crucified themselves as Lone Shark (ironic name there) says,  to keep up with the Jones - one car is not enough, must have the flatscreen in the jacuzzi, and the fish pond - they are now total slaves to the banks for years to come - thats no way to live.

Houses going in wee piss arse villages for 250k up and people actually buying them is hard to believe.

And as another said - the build quality is shite -  damp shitholes in 10 - 15 years.

But its not all bad news - we can look forward to the lads coming round the houses with the Turf and Blocks and perties again, plus the Pollen salesmen from Lough Neagh might start calling round the doors again - and of course the fella's selling the homemade yuletide logs with the icing sugar for snow at Christmas!

I was told to move my 7 year old van from the estate as it was an eyesore,a housing estate in Galway county.
Ireland gained a bit of the mrs bucket syndrome in the boom years alright.
Much prefer to have had  an old van and be able to afford a holiday and my small treats in life than a headache inducing debt sitting outside the door.
I am away from all that now and wish to never see it again, i should have told them to f off with their grand notions in a damn housing estate in a one horse ton in galway.

QuoteGreed. Greed. Greed. Money. Status. Money. Greed. Status. Greed. Money. Greed.

Sure isn't it great to know that the public sector won't be effected in any way.  ::)

Public sector workers are as culpable as everyone else for their own debt, for the reasons stated!

Quote from: mannix on June 26, 2008, 08:58:39 AM
I was told to move my 7 year old van from the estate as it was an eyesore,a housing estate in Galway county.
Ireland gained a bit of the mrs bucket syndrome in the boom years alright.
Much prefer to have had  an old van and be able to afford a holiday and my small treats in life than a headache inducing debt sitting outside the door.
I am away from all that now and wish to never see it again, i should have told them to f off with their grand notions in a damn housing estate in a one horse ton in galway.

Jesus are you serious Mannix you must be a quite man i would have told them to go and kindly mind their own f**king Business . If the recession does hit iteland it will be way worse than the 80's as people are are up to their eyes in debt . When my Dad came back from England in the 70's he bought the house he still owes for 5000 pounds he didn't need a mortgage he had saved for it  and anything that he did with the house he saved for, wages might not have been great back there but at least they did not have huge mortgages over their heads. I know a few lads who work in the banking industry and they said that banks are repossing houses and are just renting them back to the owners as they can't be sold.

Some of the banks are in trouble from the 'crdit crunch' and poor practices.
I see the Gov are now after the banks here for their current policy of 'not dealing with customers' - the banks seem
to have the new idea that they will only deal with guaranteed profit customers and wont help any businesses that
may need loans or are in any 'risk' industry.
Think the gov are going to try to make them retract this policy. Good move imo.
Our domestic banks make half a billion to a billion in profit each year, no credit crunch problems there.

Whoever mentioned PAYE union brickies - well they only earn 100 - 130 euros a week more than unskilled (plus inexpereinced
and useless) immigrant labourers in dublin city centre right now...that will surprise a few of you !

its possible while there are still jobs floating about and I have heard of a few recently (citibank, Goldman sachs and at least
one pharma) then the immigrants will stay, the rental market will remain bouyant and there wont be a meltdown.
Once the immigrants start to leave due to a lack of jobs, then we could have the house of cards falling down.
I dont think this will happen, like all the other times, the prophets of doom and gloom will get a few of these closures right,
but the people (ie US) want the country to stay afloat and working, so we will do our damndest to do so, and I would expect
that yet another time we will come through this.
As mentioned prev by myself and loan shark, it does require people taking a good look at themselves and cutting their
cloth accordingly. Whether thats changing job to a more secure one, spending less and not pretending to live in
Dallas and realise you are actually renting in Drimnagh - then you stand a better chance of living a life than being
slave to a lie.
While we always run the risk of losing call centre or manufacturing jobs to third world countries, Remember we would
need a massive reason for these current industries to all leave - such as the euro crashing and/or interest rates going a
lot higher plus the safety net of our corporate income tax rate being forcibly raised.

I smirked at the row yesterday about public sector pay. I think its about time that accountibility and perf management were
introduced to this sector (and performed by independants). Too many lazy red tape wrapped bureaucrats allowed to
sit and so nothing, take 6 months paid sick leave if they fall out with a colleague (and call it stress).
Wastes of money being haemmoraged by the public sector. They do not deserve a raise until they are structured properly and
are shown to be performing.
the rest of us dont get wage increases if we are rubbish at our jobs, why should they.

I would hope that soon after the US election, their dollar will go back up , which will help our exports again.

Quotetake 6 months paid sick leave if they fall out with a colleague (and call it stress).

Lynchbhoy, you speaking your mind in work again?  ;)

Quoteits possible while there are still jobs floating about and I have heard of a few recently (citibank, Goldman sachs and at least one pharma)

Maybe recruiting for specialised positions?
But Citigroup worldwide is in the process of laying off 13000 staff and has just announced 10% of investment banking staff are to go on top of this.

These multinational financials in Ireland are very nervous at the moment.

Quote from: lynchbhoy on June 26, 2008, 10:29:57 AM
Some of the banks are in trouble from the 'crdit crunch' and poor practices.
I see the Gov are now after the banks here for their current policy of 'not dealing with customers' - the banks seem
to have the new idea that they will only deal with guaranteed profit customers and wont help any businesses that
may need loans or are in any 'risk' industry.
Think the gov are going to try to make them retract this policy. Good move imo.
Our domestic banks make half a billion to a billion in profit each year, no credit crunch problems there.

....

I would hope that soon after the US election, their dollar will go back up , which will help our exports again.

On the first point, I'm not sure forcing the market is the way to go. If the banks deem that they need to dig their heels in to keep everything ship shape, then I would certainly not approve of the government being allowed put a gun to their heads and say "remember that guy who came in to you yesterday looking for a 90% mortgage?" We know his job is ropey and the property is an apartment on Inisheer but we command you to lend to him anyway". By all means if they want to create incentives for loaning to start up businesses who are export facing, then that's fine, but outside of that I would say you're only artificially propping up house prices and building again. Let the prices collapse to where they should be (an average house should be four times an average salary - always has been in every country for the last 300 years) and then start again.


As for the dollar, I'm not sure I share you're optimism there. If McCain wins you have some chance, though he's committed to continuing to fight a war the US can't afford, while I don't remember a currency or a stock exchange ever going up after the left option of two wins an election, so if Barrack wins it'll drop further I suspect.

The whole currency is a house of cards anyway. Once they do something to either China or the Saudis to p*** them off either of those countries could pull the rug out from under the whole thing.

Quote from: lynchbhoy on June 26, 2008, 10:29:57 AM

Whoever mentioned PAYE union brickies - well they only earn 100 - 130 euros a week more than unskilled (plus inexpereinced
and useless) immigrant labourers in dublin city centre right now...that will surprise a few of you !

I mentioned union brickie and i can say with certainty that our brickies are getting no less now than they have been in the few years. Some contractors are renegotiating wth BATU but its purely becauce there is no work for them, at the minute we have (forced) to employ 30 blocklayers even if they have to sit at home if there is nothing to do so it a case of finding work for them

Yes Deel, that actually happened.

Dont own a house or a car, and I'm quite glad I dont.

Have just been to a presentation by a top UK economist (Peter Spencer) whose life is revolving round this at the minute. 

It was fascinating, and one of the few positive stories I've heard.  We are NOT (in the UK) in a recession.  Growth in GDP has slowed but it is not in decline.  He said that there will be casualties but it wil not be on the scale of the early nineties.  Interest rates in the UK forecast to fall by 0.5% by the end of the year but to rise again, prob no further than 5% by 2010.

He also said the decision by the Bank of England to rescue Northern Rock was a sensible one as taking the moral ground of "make your own bed and lie in it" would have precpitated a total bank crash.

So many interesting points - oil prices will stabilse but the economy is much stronger than previous years, and given the way it's dealt with price rises recently, he reckons it's stronger than we think. 

Bad news on the currency though - the pound will fall a bit further, just hope it's against the dollar rather than the euro!

One even stronger point that he made (and we think he was paid by our employers to do it) is that if the government gives into huge pay rise demands, interest rates will shoot up.  Large scale strikes will not be worth it as the government simply can't afford it. 

Just realised that's a very boring post to anyone but me  :D

Quote from: Lone Shark on June 26, 2008, 11:28:18 AM
On the first point, I'm not sure forcing the market is the way to go. If the banks deem that they need to dig their heels in to keep everything ship shape, then I would certainly not approve of the government being allowed put a gun to their heads and say "remember that guy who came in to you yesterday looking for a 90% mortgage?" We know his job is ropey and the property is an apartment on Inisheer but we command you to lend to him anyway". By all means if they want to create incentives for loaning to start up businesses who are export facing, then that's fine, but outside of that I would say you're only artificially propping up house prices and building again. Let the prices collapse to where they should be (an average house should be four times an average salary - always has been in every country for the last 300 years) and then start again.


As for the dollar, I'm not sure I share you're optimism there. If McCain wins you have some chance, though he's committed to continuing to fight a war the US can't afford, while I don't remember a currency or a stock exchange ever going up after the left option of two wins an election, so if Barrack wins it'll drop further I suspect.

The whole currency is a house of cards anyway. Once they do something to either China or the Saudis to p*** them off either of those countries could pull the rug out from under the whole thing.

theres being cautious, but declining to business because it may be a slight risk, or not as lucrative - that cuts accross the bows of the competition authority or that ballpark
these banks make millions of profit so they are not at risk, plus if they stop allowing business to be conducted, this would be another internal blow to local economy and a lot more dangerous to us than banks cutting jobs worldwide (which would be insignificant to the Irish workforce).

the us dollar is now a quest for them to work on and as it has never been this low, it will undoubtedly take off. Whether thats fired by a war on iran if the republicans get in or economy improving if the democrats get in - well doesnt matter, I'd be astonished if it stayed in the doldrums.

imo

(no dinny , not me for a change  ;), but I saw and heard of plenty of incidents like that in my short gov semi state stint - partly the reason why I left, couldnt stick the waste and lack of productivity/beauracracy)

Quote from: Rois on June 26, 2008, 02:21:54 PM
Have just been to a presentation by a top UK economist (Peter Spencer) whose life is revolving round this at the minute. 

It was fascinating, and one of the few positive stories I've heard.  We are NOT (in the UK) in a recession.  Growth in GDP has slowed but it is not in decline.  He said that there will be casualties but it wil not be on the scale of the early nineties.  Interest rates in the UK forecast to fall by 0.5% by the end of the year but to rise again, prob no further than 5% by 2010.

He also said the decision by the Bank of England to rescue Northern Rock was a sensible one as taking the moral ground of "make your own bed and lie in it" would have precpitated a total bank crash.

So many interesting points - oil prices will stabilse but the economy is much stronger than previous years, and given the way it's dealt with price rises recently, he reckons it's stronger than we think. 

Bad news on the currency though - the pound will fall a bit further, just hope it's against the dollar rather than the euro!

One even stronger point that he made (and we think he was paid by our employers to do it) is that if the government gives into huge pay rise demands, interest rates will shoot up.  Large scale strikes will not be worth it as the government simply can't afford it. 

maybe rois, but down here in the south, we have had it confirmed to us that growth is now negative, as far as the uk goes, I would wager that NI is undoubtedly in recession, regardless of the rest of the uk.
Can't comment on UK interest rates, but rates down here are going up next thursday and that will mean a further fall for stg against the euro.

Quote from: lynchbhoy on June 26, 2008, 03:12:16 PM

theres being cautious, but declining to business because it may be a slight risk, or not as lucrative - that cuts accross the bows of the competition authority or that ballpark
these banks make millions of profit so they are not at risk, plus if they stop allowing business to be conducted, this would be another internal blow to local economy and a lot more dangerous to us than banks cutting jobs worldwide (which would be insignificant to the Irish workforce).

the us dollar is now a quest for them to work on and as it has never been this low, it will undoubtedly take off. Whether thats fired by a war on iran if the republicans get in or economy improving if the democrats get in - well doesnt matter, I'd be astonished if it stayed in the doldrums.

imo

A couple of points to this:

(1) When poeple talk about banks not giving out money, usually they're talking in the context of the difficulty in getting loans or mortgages for personal use. Obviously small business suffers as well, but these are two distinct issues - one of which is black and white - i.e. we shouldn't give out more than 85% loans again until house prices settle to four times gross salary and the other is business loans which is a grey area. Obviously there are two extremes. One is the rock solid business case of a guy who has set up a small business, has loads of work on the books and just needs to fund a small expansion to be able to generate more turnover, and the other is the dreamer who comes in looking to set up a theatre barge dedicated exclusively to sock puppetry. one should always be given, the other should always be declined. However you cannot make a blanket decree that banks must give to anyone who asks just because they are "entrepreneurs".

(2) You say the banks are not at risk - but the share price says very differently. When you have bank shares giving a dividend yield of 12%, that means that investors believe there is a real possibility of very bad news in the offing. Now I don't know you and perhaps you do know more than all the dealers in the Iseq combined, but the odds are you're generalising a bit here. If every ratings agency in the world has downgraded these banks and anyone you ask says that there is a lot more toxic junk to be flushed out of the financial system yet, you'll forgive me for not sharing your confidence in the rock solid nature of banks in the most gombeen economy in the free world.

(3) Even if they were rock solid, they are private entities - if I'm a part owner of a Bank of Ireland (albeit 0.0001%!!) - which I was until two years ago when I sold my holding because it was clear that all this was coming - why should they be forced to make loans that they consider to be bad value? Any loan with more than a 2% risk of default is bad value from the banks point of view - if their opinion is that this customer, be he private or business, is a greater risk than that, why should they be forced to take it on? You wouldn't suggest that we force petrol retailers to sell at a loss to compensate high oil prices, why is this any different?

(4) Even if they wanted to raise the value of the US dollar, Ben Bernanke is in the pocket of Wall St. and wouldn't dream of doing anything to upset them, they haven't the political will to eliminate the deficit and it would go against the national policy, albeit unspoken, of inflating away their debt. The US Dollar will be $3 to the euro before it goes back below $1.25 - that nation is quite simply bankrupt and all it will take is one catalyst and the whole thing will fall asunder. Prepare to be very astonished.

Loneshark,
how are you so sure the us dollar is that bad?
you seem to be very clued in, is the usa finished as the big player.
What do you see happening that will astonish us?

Quote from: mannix on June 26, 2008, 04:23:28 PM

What do you see happening that will astonish us?

Mayo will win All-Ireland.

Quote from: ONeill on June 26, 2008, 04:24:57 PM

Quote from: mannix on June 26, 2008, 04:23:28 PM

What do you see happening that will astonish us?

Mayo will win All-Ireland.

:D ah jesus o' neill what have you against mayo, bad enough Az having a go at us

I said "astonish"  not give us heart failure.
I would gladly pay you tuesday for sam maguire today

Quote from: mannix on June 26, 2008, 04:23:28 PM
Loneshark,
how are you so sure the us dollar is that bad?
you seem to be very clued in, is the usa finished as the big player.
What do you see happening that will astonish us?

I was merely replying to Lynchbhoy's comment that he'd be astonished if the dollar stayed in the doldrums - so I said prepare to be astonished.


In terms of my general prognosis of the dollar, it's just very simple stuff - you can't keep spending more than you ceate as a nation, and the US has been doing that for years. The cycle has been very simple - the US buys foreign goods and thus foreign currency, but the foreign countries then have to buy dollars in return to buy oil. Those oil rich countries then buy shares in US corporations, or hoard the dollars, thus ensuring that the currency is propped up. However a few countries are starting to price oil in weighted baskets of currencies ather than simply dollars, higher and higher proportions of the oil are in non-US friendly dominions and the Chinese are looking at their piggy bank of trillions of dollars and realising that they need to start getting shut of a lot of it. Little things like the unwinding of the Yen carry trade aren't helping either.

That's an extremely simplistic version, but basically when every other country on the world had to export something to pay their way, the US just literally exported the dollar and people kept taking them. It's now beginning to dawn on people that there ain't a lot backing up them little green bits of paper.

Anything Ireland is facing is a trifle relative to what's going to happen in the US when people realise that they've been living way beyond their means for years.

All that is my simplistic analysis - I'm a bookie/provincial sports hack so I'm not exactly an expert. I defer to greater economics brains who I'm sure are out there in our midst.

one of the main reasons behind the general assumption of the US emerging from their current situation is due to their productivity. The per capita productivity of the US worker is huge compared to every other nation. However with both of the interchangeable political parties having the collective economic brains of all of the proverbial Inisheer apartment owners, and an everchanging tax legislation that has bus sized holes that keeps millions of CPAs in business, the US is borrowing heavily for things it has no need for and no way to pay for it. Iraq and Afghanistan are a huge drain, government procurement policy is laughable and being challenged in courts up and down the country, however its not yet a case of the emperor's got no clothes.
With the brakes being put on consumer borrowing, and the housing crisis here, the conditions are right for a new wave of entrepreneurial activity. if this is combined with an awareness (and will) to change the government borrowing and spending activity then the US will come out of this recession like a cork from a champagne bottle.

this'll take a while, right now the government deficit is spiraling (I would say out of control, but we're far beyond that) and wall street has realized how much crap its in. non reporting of bad loans has a very worried investor pool. The banks are openly looking for cash reserves which normally would have had investors pile in, but now has them running for the hills, predictions are that a number of the small regional US banks are in it to their eyeballs and are likely to fold within the next 6 months.

I think in the US its going to get worse before it gets better, but in 2-3 years the economy will be well on the road to recovery.
thats not even mentioning the over reliance on oil here, and the complete disregard for energy efficiency.

im away to buy a half pound of rope, a small stool and a sturdy branch

Quote from: ludermor on June 26, 2008, 05:51:06 PM
im away to buy a half pound of rope, a small stool and a sturdy branch

Ludermore, you'll be out an arm and a leg. I bought a strudy branch last week by getting a Credit Union sub.

LONDON (AFP) - Oil prices soared Thursday after the president of OPEC, Algerian Energy Minister Chakib Khelil, said crude could hit a record 170 dollars this year owing to a weak US currency and geopolitical unrest.
(Advertisement)

Last week, oil hit historic highs just short of 140 dollars.

New York's main oil futures contract, light sweet crude for August delivery, was up 3.79 dollars at 138.34 dollars per barrel at about 1430 GMT, recouping all the ground lost Wednesday after US stockpile figures.

Brent North Sea crude for August jumped 2.84 dollars to 137.17 dollars.

Prices, which tumbled 3.50 dollars on Wednesday, were up by about 50 cents on Thursday before Khelil's comments, supported by a weak dollar and risks of unrest in producer countries, analysts said.

"I predict probably prices of 150 to 170 dollars this summer," Khelil said Thursday in an interview with France 24.

"It (the market) will probably fall a bit towards the end of the year."

The OPEC president added that a weak dollar was the main cause of surging oil prices. A struggling US currency makes goods priced in the dollar cheaper for foreign buyers, thus pushing up demand.

Khelil also cited Western "threats against Iran" over its nuclear projects as a key reason for prices spiking on world markets. Oil prices have doubled in just one year.

"If (the threats) increase, I think the price of oil will rise further this summer as it would coincide with stronger demand for gasoline (petrol), particularly in the United States," added Khelil.

The OPEC chief said that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries was ready to meet any additional demand for crude in the future.

OPEC produces about 40 percent of the world's oil.

Oil prices had closed down 3.50 dollars on Wednesday after official data revealed an unexpected rise in stockpiles in the United States, the world's biggest energy consumer.

The US Department of Energy said that stockpiles of crude had risen for the first time in six weeks, by 800,000 barrels, in the week to June 20. Analysts had expected a drop of 1.1 million barrels.

"The report also showed four week average gasoline demand is 2.1 percent down from a year ago; this goes to show more and more people are reacting to high oil prices," said Nimit Khamar from the Sucden brokerage in London.

Shark,while I agree that the US were living way beyond their means, this is no economy stopper.
As long as they have the resources, brains and environment to re-energise their economy and industry
they can put off the debt onto the long finger as they have been doing and spark off new trade and so on with China,
central and south america etc.
There are certainly plenty of clever money makers within their ranks and once the US election stops diverting their
attention, then the winner will focus on 'fixing' the economy and country.
I would predict a quicker recovery if Obama were to get in, esp as he is a democrat.
I'd still expect a recovery if McCain won the election, but not as
The yanks have it within their power to do something about the economy, and it will only take these initial 'moves'
to start the dollar price to rise again - not the actual results of whatever program they put in place.
Whoever gets into power, their main aim is to vamp up the dollar and 'fix' the economy.


As for Irish banks inhibiting local businesses, and its the small , SME and even some of the larger businesses that
are affected by all accounts - the failure to help such businesses would be a greater risk to our economy by killing
us from the inside than the high profile but relatively non-impacting call centre migrations to india etc.
Heard some 'economists' were quoted as saying similar on the radio this morning also (Dan McLaughlin was one attributed).

Its not that they are in trouble, all business needs cash flow, and while the banks were killing themselves to do
business and give money in the same situation when economists were shouting that all was rosy in the garden for
over a decade, they now will not allow the same act when the precedent is there at least.
Thats short term thinking and will shoot themselves in the foot(and us in the head).

share prices are not a good indicator of how profitable or stable a company is. I cannot believe anyone would
put such faith in that system. OK I am a stock market sceptic, but having seen from experience a company going from
being the 'darlings' of Irish industry to almost unmentionable simply because their stock price fell, well that brought
it home to me how fickle and ridiculous the share scenario was.
The company were making millions in profit, exporting to europe and the US. They issued a profit warning that they
were only going to make a 71 million euro profit in quarter 2 rather than the 120 million euro profit that they
had expected/forecasted (sales team just didnt close some deals, a lot of others were simple speculation on sales).
The share price went down and all of a sudden this company seemed to be waiting to go bankrupt.
However they are still working and trading away, their sales targets were close enough to forcast butnot quite reaching them.
so a company making a huge profit of approx 200 million a year were deemed to be unprofitable and 'dangerous' due to
that stock market rubbish !!! I know of some other similar scenarios due to the stock price panic inducing!
Now the share market could also indicate some of these correctly, but for some reason people never look beyond the facade
and judge books by their covers.

The US were living beyond their means, they are living beyond their means and they have no intention of doing anything but living beyond their means in the future. The big difference in this instance however is that the world is beginning to realise what's going on and that they are, in the words of one of their own, all hat and no cattle.

An economy cannot tradertheir way out of decades of deficits without having something unique to offer the world and with India and China churning out graduates like there's no tomorrow, the US "brains" advantage is being eroded away. Obviously there will always be something that an MIT graduate can offer you that an english speaking degree holder from the University of Chennai cannot, but that's not enough to compensate for how the US economy has gotten used to using 20 million barrels of oil a day and only producing 6 million themselves - and even at that rate they will be dry in twelve years time.

Your solution seems to imply that once Obama/McCain start spouting rhetoric, the world will buy it and duly keep propping up the dollar - I would very much question that in the current environment. I think America has blown it's trust somewhat and will need to show it's hand a bit more than that. in order to salvage the dollar they will have to take some very hard, prgmatic decisions, decisions which Obama will not take due to being a Democrat and decisions that McCain would find difficult to implement due to the weak Republican position in the houses of Congress and the Senate.

By the way you still don't say why it would come quicker if Obama got in - the markets always want the right winger to win - why do you think this election would be any different?

Also, while you do explain why banks keeping the flow of credit to Irish businesses would be good for the general economy, you don't say why it would be good for the banks themselves, or indeed how they should get their hands on the reserves required to do so. And don't just say the knock on effect for all of us boosts the banks - that's not nearly enough to compensate for bad debts in the vicinity of 5% or more. The fact remains that Irish banks are private entities and it is naive to expect them to act altruisticly.

As for the stock market stuff, well all I can say is that while the Irish market is rife with insider trading and I wouldn't touch it with a barge pole, in any other proper economy a bank with a dividend yield of 10% would be inundated with demand. There is a lot of discounting going on for some reason, and in this country, somebody knows something.

Simple maths - spending > earnings = in the shit
What you borrow + interest > what you can afford to pay back = in deeper shit

I think there is awful pressure on people at home (armagh) to have everything and keep up with the Whites (there are no Jones in Armagh).
How many young couples have a big house and are mortgaged to their ears and still go out drinking all weekend, sunday lunch in the Canal court, two good cars and at least one holiday a year? Can they all afford it? No.

If you are living beyond your means it simply adds to the pre-recession the country is already in.  Avoid recession and stop being foolish with your money and lifestyle.

Loneshark, as usual very reasoned points being made but you're stating opinions based on inaccurate 'facts'.
The US GDP is not as bad as you seem to make out:

The reality is as per below   ... and only 25% of this debt is owned by countries/institutions other than the US
Year .....  US Public Debt in billions  .....  % of GDP
1940 43.0 44.2
1950 257.4 80.2
1960 290.2 45.7
1970 389.2 28.0
1980 930.2 26.1
1990 3233 42.0
2000 5674 35.1
2005 7933 37.4
2007 9008 36.8
2008  37.9(est)
[/table]


Plus when you go on with a line that the euro will be worth 3 dollars, at least give us some reasons why rather than saying perpare to be astonsihed.

A change in US gov will bring out the positive thinking people, nothing more nothing less.
It may be a 'emporers new clothes' type scenario - but confidence and consumer/industry confidence counts for a hell of a
lot in the marketplace.
the democrats are attributed to be the money bringers from the successful clinton years, so the marketplace will be
more receptive to a change of gov than a 'continuation' of one.
thats about it really. No mathematical or financial reasons. Faith and confidence. IMO that means a lot.
As mad as it sounds.

With Banks not doing much meaningful business, then they will choke themselves to death (the bad debt rate could even
be as high as 7% - but I believe it was 4 or 5% this past number of years anyway!). Failing to do business out of
fear is as bad as losing most on bad debts etc. The result will cripple the banks. As they are proven to be heavily
profit making businesses in the past 15 years, and they should continue to reap the rewards of mortgage repayments from
millions of customers while offering equal or lesser interest rate deposit accounts, then that still indicates large scale financial income.
Unless of course the whole thing goes down the toilet and everyone fails to repay mortgages.
Banks are starting to offer better interest rates to increase investment revenue and lock in th emoney for longe terms.

You mentioned the stock market and how you judged an Irish business to be fecked by its falling share price.
I was simply indicating that this did not actually mean the business was failing, but how daft the stock market can be and how it
frequently distorts the reality of a firms profitability or financial/business status.

Obama and mccain can spout rhetoric, but with countries like china and middle east tripping over themselves to do business and to
be seen to do business with the western world (no sorry actualy only the USA really), then I can see a ready market for
pretty anything the US can ship to China, or another big revenue generator - exploiting chinas resourses and taking them
for half nothing in imports before selling on at a big profit (as China still lacks the expertise and manpower to unlock their
natural and manufacturing resources/potential).

Again all IMO.
Ireland will continue to keep afloat, as it is in our interests to do so and people will knuckle down and continue
to work, trade and spend (sensibly) their way through this.
I was in two diff shopping centres today (Blanch and Navan) - the amount of people out spending and so on for a Monday when a so called
'recession' is about to hit was amazing imo - maybe no one told them!.

We have v diff views of the way the us economy could go. Maybe we should be 'economists' and earn a fortune for talking such subjective sh*te ! !   ;) :D

Quote from: blast05 on June 30, 2008, 10:13:47 PM
Loneshark, as usual very reasoned points being made but you're stating opinions based on inaccurate 'facts'.
The US GDP is not as bad as you seem to make out:

The reality is as per below   ... and only 25% of this debt is owned by countries/institutions other than the US
Year .....  US Public Debt in billions  .....  % of GDP
1940 43.0 44.2
1950 257.4 80.2
1960 290.2 45.7
1970 389.2 28.0
1980 930.2 26.1
1990 3233 42.0
2000 5674 35.1
2005 7933 37.4
2007 9008 36.8
2008  37.9(est)
[/table]


Plus when you go on with a line that the euro will be worth 3 dollars, at least give us some reasons why rather than saying perpare to be astonsihed.

All of those numbers are predicated on the one notion - that oil will continue to be traded in dollars. Americans don't pay down debt, they never do - they inflate it away. However when oil is traded in dollars that sustains their currency and spreads the inflation all across the globe. However when the lads in places like Iran, Nigeria, Venezuela and Russia all start to say to the Yanks that they're money is not so good any more, that's when it'll all hit the fan - and suddenly inflating away the deficit will be less of an option becuase the people of Chicago, Miami and Iowa will suffer rather than those in all the other oil consuming countries.

Additionally, the US are consuming their own oil reserves at a massive rate - a very unsustainable rate.

My reason - the US dollar will stop being the currency that is used for which to value oil, and suddenly the whole house of cards will collapse from there.

Quote from: lynchbhoy on June 30, 2008, 10:48:41 PM
A change in US gov will bring out the positive thinking people, nothing more nothing less.
It may be a 'emporers new clothes' type scenario - but confidence and consumer/industry confidence counts for a hell of a
lot in the marketplace.
the democrats are attributed to be the money bringers from the successful clinton years, so the marketplace will be
more receptive to a change of gov than a 'continuation' of one.
thats about it really. No mathematical or financial reasons. Faith and confidence. IMO that means a lot.
As mad as it sounds.

We'll agree to disagree on that one. I think the markets will always bounce on the strength of small changes in sentiment, but the underlying value will always be reasonably well reflected. You could put out all the rumours you like about a company like Coca Cola or Tesco, they just ain't going anywhere because they'll just keep on keeping on. The US needs to prove that it's going to change it's ways befoe the market will buy into it IMO.

Quote from: lynchbhoy on June 30, 2008, 10:48:41 PM

With Banks not doing much meaningful business, then they will choke themselves to death (the bad debt rate could even
be as high as 7% - but I believe it was 4 or 5% this past number of years anyway!). Failing to do business out of
fear is as bad as losing most on bad debts etc. The result will cripple the banks. As they are proven to be heavily
profit making businesses in the past 15 years, and they should continue to reap the rewards of mortgage repayments from
millions of customers while offering equal or lesser interest rate deposit accounts, then that still indicates large scale financial income.
Unless of course the whole thing goes down the toilet and everyone fails to repay mortgages.
Banks are starting to offer better interest rates to increase investment revenue and lock in th emoney for longe terms.

The banks have locked away a lot of profit, so if they have a few lean years that won't be a problem - a few years with heavy defaults however is another matter entirely. However you have your percentages way off - if Bank of Ireland had 7% bad debts next year that would represent some €9 billion, or the profits from the last decade or so all wiped off in one year. We then end up in "run on the bank" country, which would turn the economy into a basket case altogether. I cannot disagree with you strongly enough on this - making dubious loan calls is not the way forward.

Quote from: lynchbhoy on June 30, 2008, 10:48:41 PM

You mentioned the stock market and how you judged an Irish business to be fecked by its falling share price.
I was simply indicating that this did not actually mean the business was failing, but how daft the stock market can be and how it
frequently distorts the reality of a firms profitability or financial/business status.

I never said I judged a business by it's share price. Warren Buffett doesn't, and he's the best investor in the world - I'm hardly going to disagree with him. HOWEVER - we live in the greatest gombeen kleptocracy in the history of the world, with sleeveen non-nod-wink-wink tactics at every turn and a truly ugly desire to get rich quick and hang the consequences. The greatest concentration of this ugly side of our nature is to be found trading the ISEQ. Last week there was a sudden splurge in selling of Greencore shares. The following day Greencore announces the minor matter of €20 million needing to be wiped off it's balance sheet. The ISEQ is full to the brim with cheats, thieves and short cut merchants and when they go out of their way to express to the world how Irish banks are undervalued and how they must be a massive buy while at the same time shorting the bollix out of them themselves, then I just can't bring myself to ignore the overwhelming stench of something dead in the yard that just wasn't buried deep enough.

Quote from: lynchbhoy on June 30, 2008, 10:48:41 PM

Obama and mccain can spout rhetoric, but with countries like china and middle east tripping over themselves to do business and to
be seen to do business with the western world (no sorry actualy only the USA really), then I can see a ready market for
pretty anything the US can ship to China, or another big revenue generator - exploiting chinas resourses and taking them
for half nothing in imports before selling on at a big profit (as China still lacks the expertise and manpower to unlock their
natural and manufacturing resources/potential).

China and the middle east are queuing up to sell stuff to the yanks and then buy half of Wall street with the proceeds - they most certainly aren't queuing up to buy American Cars, American clothes or American anything. None of that is going to clear America's obscene trade gap.

Quote from: lynchbhoy on June 30, 2008, 10:48:41 PM

Again all IMO.
Ireland will continue to keep afloat, as it is in our interests to do so and people will knuckle down and continue
to work, trade and spend (sensibly) their way through this.
I was in two diff shopping centres today (Blanch and Navan) - the amount of people out spending and so on for a Monday when a so called
'recession' is about to hit was amazing imo - maybe no one told them!.

We have v diff views of the way the us economy could go. Maybe we should be 'economists' and earn a fortune for talking such subjective sh*te ! !   ;) :D

I sincerely hope that you're right. I do wonder by times if the work ethic in this country has been eroded away just a little too much - too many people have got welathy/debty taking shortcuts in recent years, and while the SUV they bought is still bright and shiny and sitting in the yard for all the neighbours to see, nobody sees the big loan, the huge credit card bill and the massive mortgage on the house that was worth €50k more a month ago. What's the phrase - nothing clouds a man's judgement like his neighbour getting rich. Above all, we still keep voting FF back in - that hardly says a lot for our will to change our ways and make a good honest living. Still, I'd love if you were right on this one.

As for the economists thing, you'd be fine, banks would be tripping over themselves to hire a positive guy like you. Guys like me who don't like skipping over the bad news however might not find it as easy to get a handy job working for Mammon though....

QuoteAll of those numbers are predicated on the one notion - that oil will continue to be traded in dollars. Americans don't pay down debt, they never do - they inflate it away. However when oil is traded in dollars that sustains their currency and spreads the inflation all across the globe. However when the lads in places like Iran, Nigeria, Venezuela and Russia all start to say to the Yanks that they're money is not so good any more, that's when it'll all hit the fan - and suddenly inflating away the deficit will be less of an option becuase the people of Chicago, Miami and Iowa will suffer rather than those in all the other oil consuming countries.

The first oil producer to switch was a certain Saddam. The next is Iran who are doing some proxy trading already (I'm not a banker so am unable to explain fully) so expect another war, especially if McCain gets in (depite what he preaches he is a Republican and it is decades since a Republican president didnt fight a war). Israel and Columbia are available to fight proxy wars if necessary and are already geared up to do so.

Now of course we know the real reason why Britain didnt join the Euro. They werent allowed by the US (so much for the jingoistic bravado about sterling) just as the EU's only other oil producer Sweden wasnt allowed.

LoneShark says prepare to be astonished. I agree. This thread has been about the world economy but I see major new conflicts as been the most significant outcome.

Quote from: Lone Shark on July 01, 2008, 02:53:46 AM
The banks have locked away a lot of profit, so if they have a few lean years that won't be a problem - a few years with heavy defaults however is another matter entirely. However you have your percentages way off - if Bank of Ireland had 7% bad debts next year that would represent some €9 billion, or the profits from the last decade or so all wiped off in one year. We then end up in "run on the bank" country, which would turn the economy into a basket case altogether. I cannot disagree with you strongly enough on this - making dubious loan calls is not the way forward.

I dont mean taking on risky new business, I mean continuity of performing the same business for the same companies as previous years, same risk then so the precedent should mean they do business with them now.


You certainly have a bee in your bonnet about insider dealing !
:D
Were you stung prev ?

Its gonna be interesting to see how the US can intelligently manouvre themselves out of this. Confidence is the first step and crucial, but as you mention, it needs to be backed up soon after this by some nifty financial strategic action. If it was us in that position, we would be fcuked.
I think the US has more options, resources and friends (countries that will need future favours or who are afraid of the US) so they 'have' the potential to get out of this. we'd be fcuked (I think I said that already).


Domestically I hope I am right too, though it was much the same in previous 'recession' times , there are just other external worldwide difficulties that are parallel and could more us into a more precarious position. As long as the circle remains unbroken here, the mounting debt will hopefully not manifest itself to be a problem (cars will get paid off, houses mortgages get paid - maybe duration terms increased). But I agree and think the consumer needs to wake up and stop competing with their neighbours.A lot of folk have seen this so far and more will v soon. Nothing more resourceful than people when facing difficulty.
As long as that circle remains intact I think we can pull through and if never hitting the heights again, we can certainly remain a decent standard of living in the country (in comparison to pre mid 80's).

Quote from: lynchbhoy on July 01, 2008, 11:56:29 AM

Quote from: Lone Shark on July 01, 2008, 02:53:46 AM
The banks have locked away a lot of profit, so if they have a few lean years that won't be a problem - a few years with heavy defaults however is another matter entirely. However you have your percentages way off - if Bank of Ireland had 7% bad debts next year that would represent some €9 billion, or the profits from the last decade or so all wiped off in one year. We then end up in "run on the bank" country, which would turn the economy into a basket case altogether. I cannot disagree with you strongly enough on this - making dubious loan calls is not the way forward.

I dont mean taking on risky new business, I mean continuity of performing the same business for the same companies as previous years, same risk then so the precedent should mean they do business with them now.

But sure the changing nature of the economy means that loans that had minimal risk before have much more risk now - is that not obvious?

Quote from: lynchbhoy on July 01, 2008, 11:56:29 AM

You certainly have a bee in your bonnet about insider dealing !
:D
Were you stung prev ?

Nope, I never had enough money to get stung. I had a few options on BOI shares with a mate and my innate sense of distrust about what was going on in this country saved me as I sold them up some eighteen months ago. I have a couple of small pension funds that have been basically made worthless by the cosy cartel that exists between pension funds and the ISEQ, but all in all I'd say I've got away very light in comparision.

My point is that it's shennanigans like this that means that the one source of money out there that could alleviate the credit crunch in Ireland - sovereign wealth funds, middle east investors etc. - now avoid us like the plague because we are perceived worldwide to have the stock market made up entirely out of cast members from Oliver Twist. This is not me speculating, this has been featured in both money week and the Economist and I will dig up the links if I get around to it today. These particular chickens coming home to roost are hugely costly for anyone with an Irish pension, and they are yet another legacy of our attitude of "ara shur he only took a small few bob" attitude to Bartholemew Ahern.

Quote from: lynchbhoy on July 01, 2008, 11:56:29 AM

Domestically I hope I am right too, though it was much the same in previous 'recession' times , there are just other external worldwide difficulties that are parallel and could more us into a more precarious position. As long as the circle remains unbroken here, the mounting debt will hopefully not manifest itself to be a problem (cars will get paid off, houses mortgages get paid - maybe duration terms increased). But I agree and think the consumer needs to wake up and stop competing with their neighbours.A lot of folk have seen this so far and more will v soon. Nothing more resourceful than people when facing difficulty.
As long as that circle remains intact I think we can pull through and if never hitting the heights again, we can certainly remain a decent standard of living in the country (in comparison to pre mid 80's).

I really hope you're right. The big danger is that people have to accept that living standards have to drop a little. I was listening to Matt Cooper last week when a guy from ICTU (not sure if it was Begg) and Moore McDowell were on, and when they were referring to inflation, the Union guy was insistent that the government floor has to be rises in line with inflation with a bit extra - how "it is inconceivable that we should allow living standards to drop". Now I'm sure the first bit was just your standard pre negotiation posturing, but he seemed genuinely horrified when McDowell suggested that a recession is just that - living standards dropping. Basically either they drop a little for everyone, or else they stay the same for some and drop a hell of a lot for the others who lose their jobs. The union guy was flabergasted at this notion.

Now again, perhaps that was all a strategic negotiating position - but the truth is that standards have to drop, and with the lives that we've left behind, I really wonder if people are prepared for that. I think there's a danger of people getting in way too deep before they realise that they are in well over their heads, and only taking the necessary remedial action when it's way too late.

I'd agree that some of these loans might be riskier to businesses, but there would be a good 55-60% imo that shoul dnot be. Depends on the business and industry, but the Banks are being lazy assessing these and while that might be their perogative (though the Gov doesnt agree) it certainly is detrimental to our economy and yes the banks too - while they have great profits racked up, if there is no one out there to trade with in the aftermath, they will also have to cease trading and the top few shareholders will be the only winners here!

I have no time for stock market and share dealing myself (worked in a stockbrokers for a while too!) - am very cynical of this whole industry/practice.
I have even less time for unions. Talk about insider dealing and insular looking after their own interests! I'd hark back to 1987 and the builders strike for my first sour taste of them then.

People are in the same situation as the houses. They started out at half nothing, got increased worth of 400-500% and are now going to have to live with a re-adjustment in value of about 300-350%.
It might be almost half /two thirds as before, but its still three times what we started off with and from.
If people can cast their memories back a wee bit they will realise this and I think most people are.
If no yet, they soon will. The one good thing about the current 'downturn/recession/sky falling down' is that it is waking people up to spend more thriftly.
When you have a missus from Cavan, you always are in this mindset!
;) :D

Quote from: lynchbhoy on July 01, 2008, 12:47:27 PM


People are in the same situation as the houses. They started out at half nothing, got increased worth of 400-500% and are now going to have to live with a re-adjustment in value of about 300-350%.
It might be almost half /two thirds as before, but its still three times what we started off with and from.
If people can cast their memories back a wee bit they will realise this and I think most people are.
If no yet, they soon will. The one good thing about the current 'downturn/recession/sky falling down' is that it is waking people up to spend more thriftly.

Lynhcboy, the problem with what you have said is that for most young couples they have bought a house at obscene money in the last few years.  That means that they can't just tighten their belts because so much of their income goes to paying the mortgage.
I would therefore contend that such people WILL NOT be able to make do with earning 2/3rds of what they were before, as they'll not be able to afford the house.
If this happened you would have huge numbers of keys being handed back to the banks, and then were would the price of property go?

I think that a lot of people are in big trouble at the moment.  Young people aren't accustomed to saving.  When your mother needed a washing machine she saved for it and then bought it, our generation buy it, stick it on the credit card and worrying about paying it back some other day.

What I am saying is that our generation (mid 30s or less) have only known times of great wealth and it will take a serious change in mindset for them to be able to live within their means from now on.

Quote from: Smokin Joe on July 01, 2008, 01:41:55 PM
Lynhcboy, the problem with what you have said is that for most young couples they have bought a house at obscene money in the last few years.  That means that they can't just tighten their belts because so much of their income goes to paying the mortgage.
I would therefore contend that such people WILL NOT be able to make do with earning 2/3rds of what they were before, as they'll not be able to afford the house.
If this happened you would have huge numbers of keys being handed back to the banks, and then were would the price of property go?

I think that a lot of people are in big trouble at the moment.  Young people aren't accustomed to saving.  When your mother needed a washing machine she saved for it and then bought it, our generation buy it, stick it on the credit card and worrying about paying it back some other day.

What I am saying is that our generation (mid 30s or less) have only known times of great wealth and it will take a serious change in mindset for them to be able to live within their means from now on.

I think the near miss of almost losing their houses would be a big enough wake up call for most.
I'd also like to see a japan-esque style mortgage scenario brought in to bail out such folks as you indicate above.
That is increase the mortgage loan period to beyond the 30 and 35 year period. Allow mortgages to be handed down from one generation to the next.
It worked in japan, and they have gone from being completely fcuked a decade ago to being on the brink of a Tokyo- tiger boom economy now.
Japan is about to rocket back into the world economy in a big way. That is a model we should also look to use here.
Also we are nowhere near as badly off as tey were then. You think our folks are bad for spending dosh (that they dont really have) ...the poor Japanese went ballistic and spent the country dry!
imo there is enough hope and precedents if our Gov and people can open their eyes and get rid of this hean in the sane doomsday approach.
It needs the common sense that yourself and others mention, not everyone has that, so they are prob fcuked, the rest are hopefully going to be ok.
Everyones a winner here (relatively). People keep their houses (ok they end up spending more, but its better than losing them).
Banks make more, and banks also have lesser risk of forclosure!
The hit to the economy is reversed by this. However this is a new departure for the Irish lending mindset, so dont know it the banks or people would want this. I think it could be a lifesaver for many.

UK housebuilders are feeling pinch now.

Turnover is vanity. Profit is sanity. Cashflow is king.

This is from fool.co.uk.


The house-builders are being demolished by the market today after one of the biggest, Taylor Wimpey (LSE: TW), revealed that it hadn't been able to raise new capital.

As I write, Taylor Wimpey's shares have tumbled by more than 50% today to 26p. A year ago they were trading at 377p!

So where does that leave Britain's builders who are being deconstructed in sympathy? Are there any gems among the rubble?

Let's have a quick glance at a few. I'm comparing the current market caps of the companies with their net asset values 'NAV' (net asset value; the sum of all a company's assets less all its liabilities). The restated NAV has been calculated by me after applying a severe 35% discount to the value of the company's inventory to reflect the current harsh market conditions.

Company                              Mkt            NAV 
                                              Cap                                                                             




Bellway (LSE: BWY)
   £ 418m
    £501m

Bovis (LSE: BVS)
   £ 351m
    £420m

Redrow (LSE: RDW)
   £ 160m
    £231m

Persimmon (LSE: PSN)
   £ 717m
    £1159m

Barratt (LSE: BDEV)
   £ 143.8m
    £1099m

Berkeley (LSE: BKG)
   £ 726m
    £250m

Taylor Wimpey (LSE: TW)
   £ 303m
    £1600m




Of course, these are very rough and ready figures, which take no account of countless other highly relevant factors affecting valuation, and none whatsoever of profitability -- and prices are constantly changing. But they do give one indication of overall value.

However, in the current climate 'survivability' has become an issue. Companies go bust because they have insufficient cash to repay debts and Taylor Wimpey has spooked the market today by saying it could breach its banking covenants. So it's vital to pay close attention to cash-flow in the current climate where new finance is exceptionally hard to come across, almost regardless of net asset values it seems.

Nevertheless, some of these valuations could look ludicrous in a few years' time, but which won't be included in the line-up by then? It's all about timing your entry when trying to catch a falling knife.

Not all builders are the same. Personally, I quite like a situation where a price has been knocked severely purely in sympathy with a "colleague" and on this basis, Bellway, Bovis, Redrow, Persimmon and Barratt look worthy of closer inspection – but only by brave investors prepared to lose their shirts. Of these, Bovis looks the best to me on a safety-first basis. Bovis has seen off previous housing slumps, though it may now be regretting its purchase of Elite Homes, and a site near Bristol last year. Bovis said in May that it has access to loan facilities of £220m which don't mature until 2010. This may be crucial as now is clearly not the time to go looking for new funds.

For those of us who enjoy the thrill of a gamble with money we can afford to lose, the builders will certainly offer some excitement over the months ahead

QuoteTHE Department of Finance is bracing itself for up to 10,000 job losses in the construction sector at the end of the month.

An anticipated 'Black Friday' before the traditional builders' holiday later this month could see the largest number ever thrown onto the dole in a single day.

Construction employment has dropped by 2.5pc, or 7,000 jobs, in the last year. But industry sources say the vast majority of firms held onto staff in 2007 in anticipation of a pick-up in demand in 2008 that never materialised.

Faced with zero demand for new houses, tightening bank credit and increased interest rates, many within the sector are privately predicting a major shedding of staff.

Many due to go on holidays will be told not to report back afterwards, with cash-strapped firms already pressing for greater casualisation of their industry.

"I don't know whether it will be 5,000 or 10,000," said Tom Parlon, the director general of the Construction Industry Federation, who said he remained optimistic about the situation overall. The biggest concern of his members was to hold onto their core workforces, he said.

"It is difficult. The advice is to cut overheads, and that means jobs."

The CIF is already pressing at the national pay talks for a reduction in the hourly pay of unskilled staff that would facilitate the slimming of core employment by major builders.

There are now 275,000 working in construction compared with 282,000 a year ago, but levels of business suggest a fall to about 250,000 would be more in tune with market conditions.

A large-scale redundancy wave at the end of this month would not show up in official statistics until September, since the live register is compiled a month in arrears. But it would hit the Exchequer hard in terms of lost taxes and increased social welfare outlay.

"Obviously, the holidays is an issue that comes around every year," Mr Parlon, the former PD minister of state, declared. "But in general, firms will only lay people off if the particular job is finished.

"The big contractors all have substantial work in hand."

But he admitted the pinch was being felt among smaller firms, particularly house builders, who were facing difficulties in getting working capital. "There are turnover and cash-flow difficulties," he said.

Measures

Mr Parlon also conceded that employers were worried about losing key staff through expertise being drawn abroad in a brain drain. The CIF is pressing for the Government to intervene through such measures as a National School building programme.

The CIF is currently attempting to overthrow the Registered Employment Agreement (REA), which provides for a rate of €14.88 per hour for unskilled workers on building sites.

The big building firms say this equates to €35,000 a year, more than a newly qualified garda's starting salary, or that of a young civil service solicitor.

The federation is seeking an hourly rate of just €10.80, a reduction of €4 an hour, saying this would amount to 60pc of the skilled rate -- whereas the current stipend is 80pc of the latter.

- Senan Molony Deputy Political Editor

What I can't understand about this is why analysts think that employment can be maintained at 250K down from 282K, I mean, where do they get that??  Presuming activity is cut on a par with activity in the housing market (I know there's a pile of new launches that are being finished regardless, but presumably there won't be many more), would job losses not have to be in the hundreds of thousands?
I do know that up in Derry, activity has more or less ceased, there's an unbelievable amount of people not working, far worse than I ever remember, but then most people I know were in construction - they were normally signing on too ;)

Bogball,
the government are giving it to us with jam on it, I hear of a lot of lads in mayo doing damn  all, i have a job that needs doing for a while now, decided again to see if I could get a quotation, well they not only gave very reasonable quotes in record time but they are calling me every day to see when will they start.

Quote from: mannix on July 02, 2008, 10:51:20 PM
Bogball,
the government are giving it to us with jam on it, I hear of a lot of lads in mayo doing damn  all, i have a job that needs doing for a while now, decided again to see if I could get a quotation, well they not only gave very reasonable quotes in record time but they are calling me every day to see when will they start.

Yeah, agree totally, as I said earlier in the thread the figures are a bit misleading anyway, since many construction workers are sub-contactors or 'self-employed', since it's not possible for these people to sign on the live register then the first we'll hear about their lack of employment will be when the revenue say that the self-employed tax receipts in October have been slashed dramatically.

QuoteAll of those numbers are predicated on the one notion - that oil will continue to be traded in dollars. Americans don't pay down debt, they never do - they inflate it away.

How many countries have actually re-paid their debt ? As already outlined, American public debt is about 40% of GDP (including private debt its 65) of which 30% is owned by the US so in real terms its public foreign debt is 10% of GDP ..... about half of ours

Surprised this hasn't been posted here yet:

Time for the banks to cut ties with their builder mates

29 June 2008 By David McWilliams

The longer the banks go on protecting their developer clients, the bigger their problems are eventually going to be.

The Irish banking system is facing meltdown. The choice for the banks is now simple: they allow one of the big developers to go under or they risk going under themselves.

At the moment, the banks are frantically engaged in a game of bluff with the property market. Many of their builder-developer clients -the former crown princes of the boom - have no cash and cannot service the loans they took out in the past five years. Sites they paid fortunes for - confident that they could flip them on to a ''greater fool'' after they got planning permission - are now worth a fraction of what they paid.

Many sites are lying idle as no one wants to build, now that residential demand has fallen away. Huge debts are mounting and former high-flyers - the 'Algarve and blacked-out Jeep brigade' - haven't a farthing.

The simplest way of getting the cash back (or at least some of it) would be for the banks to force the developers to sell sites and property. However, the banks know that the psychological damage of such an event would be so traumatic and the panic in the market so destabilising, that they are postponing this day for as long as they can.

Another possible reason for the unwillingness of the banks' management to put up the land for sale is that they do not want to face the consequences of their own recklessness. They are in denial about the true valuations of their portfolio.

The developers know this and have recently begun referring to the banks as their 'partners' in mega-deals. The larger developers are assuming that the 'too-big-to-fail' moniker will save them. They are mistaken.

As a result, the Irish financial system is living in daily fear of the domino effect, where one large developer failing might bring them all down.

How long can - or should - the banks carry these bad loans? Are we talking weeks, months or years? Clearly, bank shareholders, who have been dumping bank shares for months now, believe that enough is enough.

Ultimately, the banks are caught in a brace. If they protect their developer mates, in a futile effort to protect themselves, their share prices will continue to fall. So will their bond prices.

More importantly, they could run out of cash because no one will lend to them as long as their balance sheets are hiding such colossal non-performing loans. Two events last week shed light on the banks' position.

Banks are offering 6 per cent for 'touch' deposits. These are deposits you can withdraw at any time. For the banks, this is the worst, least secure deposit it can have. Yet they are prepared to pay close to 2 per cent above the market rate of 4.09 per cent.

The other story is just one of hundreds doing the rounds these days. A busy liquidator friend told me of a call he made last week to a builder who owed a client €600,000.He called the builder and the conversation went like this:

Builder: ''Do you know where I am?"

Liquidator: ''No."

Builder: ''Dublin Airport on my way to Dubai to build."

Liquidator: ''What about the €600,000?"

Builder: ''You and your €600,000 can go **** off . . . now **** off."

This type of thing is happening every day; the lads simply don't have the cash.

The money is gone and they are not hanging around for the bailiffs. Is it any wonder that one of our reputable banks is offering us 6 per cent for our measly deposits? Cash is king and everyone wants it, no matter what price.

If you look a bit deeper, you see that now we have a chicken-and-egg scenario, where the bad debts on the banks' balance sheets are causing the banks to go into retrenchment mode. So they are lending less. But the less they lend, the more their builder-developer mates get into trouble because, the tighter the banks' lending regime, the lower the residential/ commercial demand.

If you look at the financial system as one large game, where the banks borrow from one source and lend to another, the dilemma becomes clear. If the banks can't borrow, they can't lend.

One way of looking at the 70 per cent fall in the share prices of Bank of Ireland and Anglo Irish or the 60 per cent fall in AIB is to regard these price falls as the markets' unwillingness to lend to the banks. They are simply too risky at these prices.

The system needs a net injection of cash, but there is no likely source for this, particularly as the banks' balance sheets are still jammed with useless rubbish, the bad loans of the boom. Unless the banks face the music and accept that they are not going to get paid back on many of these non-performing loans, no one will be prepared to lend to them. If no one lends to them, they make no loans and therefore, no profits. In the worst case scenario, they run out of cash.

This is a critical juncture for the Irish banking system. The top brass have to wake up to the reality that protecting developers is damaging the banks' credibility. Ultimately, the banks will have to cut the umbilical cord.

Every property boom/bust and recession is characterised by Icarus moments where the great and the good fly too close to the sun, their wings melt and they fall to earth. Just think of Alan Bond in Australia, Donald Trump in the US, Paul Reichman in London or Patrick Gallagher here in the 1980s. Inmost cases, the individuals recovered their fortunes in the next upswing.

This Greek drama is not unusual. What is odd is the number of Irish financial professionals who seem to be in denial about this or, worse still, the number who don't seem to understand what is happening or why. Many seem genuinely shocked and, if they are shocked, they are in no position to manage the situation. It is now dawning on the young stars of Dublin's banking community that there is more to finance than Ron Black's, a Prada suit, extra firm hair gel and an Audi TT.

However, the banks' choice is simple: it's either you or them. They have to realise that it's not going to get any better. The longer they protect their developers, the lower their share prices and the property market will go.

Why would anyone buy now in serious quantities when they realise that there is huge supply overhanging the market that has to be liquidated to pay bad debts? The longer the banks prevaricate, the further off any recovery.

If one bank were to bite the bullet now and put the assets of one of its bankrupt property oligarchs on the market, the cleansing period would begin. Yes, there would be huge falls in the price of sites, but that's the only way the market will clear - a child could understand this.

Some of our senior bankers fail to grasp this idea, but maybe that's one of the problems with ten years of cowboy capitalism: with all these nudges and winks, you forget how a real market works.

I thought it was very telling that our idiot politicians decided to haul the bankers in front of them yesterday to question them about their current reluctance to lend, where were they 4/5 years ago when they could have taken banks to task over their lending policies?
Did they not know that the ECB said their job wasn't to micromanage individual economies and that individual govts should do that themselves? 
Or would it just not have been conducive to listen?

LB re Japan:

QuoteBy David McWilliams


Wednesday July 02 2008

This chart records the traumatic property experience of Japan. A monumental boom in the late 1980s and early 1990s reversed dramatically and house prices fell by 76.4pc from the peak.

This happened, not in a corrupt, tin-pot dictatorship, dependent on commodities for its sole exports, but in the world's most sophisticated economy, with the most dynamic financial sector and a history as the world's pre-eminent innovator.

Could it happen here? Will Irish house prices fall back to levels seen in 2000/2001 or even to levels seen last century? Will our house prices drop by 70pc before they stabilise? These numbers need to be considered because there are plenty of reasons to be fearful.

The similarities between both Ireland and Japan are striking; the main difference is that the Japanese controlled their own interest rates and thus were able to cut them to soften the blow. As EU inflation topped 4pc this week, it looks likely that we will be facing higher not lower rates for the foreseeable future. Not good.

One similarity is the capacity for self-delusion and failure to face up to the magnitude of our crisis. It was the same in Japan 20 years ago. I remember the Japanese mania even reached Irish shores in the grim late 1980s.

When I was in college, a particularly ambitious set of business students who used to wear suits to lectures (a true sign of recession) began taking private Japanese lessons. If you didn't have a grasp of Japanese, or at least a smattering, their view was you might as well quit now and not even bother turning up for final year interviews.

We sat there, petrified, as professor after professor told us about the threat of Japan to our careers (not that the class of 1988 appeared to have a particularly stellar future ahead of them in the first place).

Every airport waiting lounge was stuffed with hardback tomes heralding the rise and rise of Japan and no economics exam was complete without the question: "Explain the fundamental economic reasons behind Japanese world economic domination".

Japan of the late 1980s was experiencing a huge asset-price boom and stocks were going through the roof, allowing Japanese companies to buy trophy assets abroad such as the Rockefeller Centre and MGM.

Bulging Japanese banks dwarfed their European and US counterparts and threatened to dominate the City and Wall Street. Most spectacular of all was the Tokyo property market. In 1990, the land upon which the imperial palace in Tokyo was built was valued at more than the entire real estate of Canada, the second largest country in the world.

When I read the silly valuations in the 'Irish Times' property section, particularly the "Take 5 at €400,000" section, I am reminded of the Japanese Imperial Palace delusion. Clearly a two up, two down in Rialto is not worth the same as a seven-bedroomed house in the Dordogne. Now that prices are falling rapidly, the idea that pokey Irish houses are worth more than French chateaux will look increasingly daft.

The other problem for Ireland is the sheer extremity of the housing boom. Irish house prices have risen 380pc since 1996, compared with 260pc in the UK -- the next frothiest market. House prices fell in Germany and of course Japan in the same period. While in Switzerland -- Europe's technically most sophisticated economy -- house prices only rose by 5pc in the 12 years since 1996.

As a result of this binge, Ireland is the most indebted nation in Europe. Outstanding residential mortgage debt now amounts to 192pc of our total GNP! This is truly shocking and depressing when you consider that in Germany, outstanding mortgage debt only amounts to 3pc of GNP.

Even in the US -- where many disingenuous Irish commentators are suggesting this crisis originated -- outstanding mortgage debt only accounts for 44pc of GNP. We are way out of whack with the rest of the world and our dilemma is very much of our own making. Think about the chart again. Have a long look and consider that in the past 10 years residential loans per capita in Ireland increased by 552pc. This is miring us in an ocean of debt. We got into debt five times faster than the average profligate American and, extraordinarily, 50 times faster than the parsimonious Germans.

With our British neighbours, we managed to lose the run of ourselves completely. In the UK, where billions of Irish euros were spent in the past five years, there is carnage on the high street. According to the estate agents Allsops, the real weakness is being seen in the thousands of new docklands-style developments which mushroomed all over British cities.

Many of these investors were Irish and most apartments are now trading at a 30pc to 40pc discount to prices originally paid in 2005. The British have the comfort of a falling exchange rate determined in London, we on the other hand are stuck to the Germans.

This is why the personal debt comparisons with Germany are so instructive. The German has no property-related debt to speak of. This means that the average Gunter doesn't really mind if European interest rates rise, as it will make no difference at all to his budget at the end of the month.

In contrast, the average Paddy, who has seen his personal property indebtedness rise by over 500pc since the late 1990s, will be roasted by a rise in rates.

So will Irish house prices follow the Japanese model and fall by 70pc from the peak? Maybe. Who knows? However, the similarities are too striking to be ignored.

It is clear the Japanese market didn't freeze, as during the slump there were still distressed sellers and opportunistic buyers who thought they had bought at rock bottom, only to see prices fall again.

Overall, however, in the 13-year slump there was not one period of six months when any sustained rally was recorded.The lesson being, when things start falling, they drop like a stone.

Take a look at the chart again. Not a pretty sight.

Dmcwilliams@independent.ie

he talks about talking about japan but then doesnt..
the yen fell and their over spending on daft commodities killed them

unlike the Japs, at least our madness includes mostly overspending on bricks and mortar , a good investment even if overpriced, as eventually if the mortgages can be continually paid off, you WILL own it and WILL have equity in it (even if it is negative equity for the first number of years). the Japanese bought perishable goods and electronic gadgetry and have a kamikaze-like tendency for gambling.

We have the famine and land league to blame for our crazed hell bent desire to buy our own houses. While we still have jobs here, it will be ok. We will obv need to start to see that the sky is not falling down at the beginning of 2009. If people still are looking at their toes at that stage, then we will have problems.IMO it is avoidable, like before.

So what if we payed over the odds for our houses. We did, so we have to lump it. We can turn this around by paying the mortgage though , then in th elong rune, we dont have a problem. At least I dont see one.
So some have to endure a quiet monastic life like our parents did in the black old times of the 50's and 60's - if thats what it take, then we make our own beds....people of today had just beter realise they need to come down from this pseudo high life and back to reality. We will and can get through it.
imo

The whole recession thing will be one major shock to the Under 30s though . :o Especially those who wear sunglasses on their heads   ;D
Us lads who saw the Eighties will survive as we will be well able to get by without the latest gadgets and will be quite happy tipping around in a 5 or 6 year old car.

Quote from: lynchbhoy on July 03, 2008, 09:31:08 PM
he talks about talking about japan but then doesnt..
the yen fell and their over spending on daft commodities killed them

unlike the Japs, at least our madness includes mostly overspending on bricks and mortar , a good investment even if overpriced, as eventually if the mortgages can be continually paid off, you WILL own it and WILL have equity in it (even if it is negative equity for the first number of years). the Japanese bought perishable goods and electronic gadgetry and have a kamikaze-like tendency for gambling.

We have the famine and land league to blame for our crazed hell bent desire to buy our own houses. While we still have jobs here, it will be ok. We will obv need to start to see that the sky is not falling down at the beginning of 2009. If people still are looking at their toes at that stage, then we will have problems.IMO it is avoidable, like before.

So what if we payed over the odds for our houses. We did, so we have to lump it. We can turn this around by paying the mortgage though , then in th elong rune, we dont have a problem. At least I dont see one.
So some have to endure a quiet monastic life like our parents did in the black old times of the 50's and 60's - if thats what it take, then we make our own beds....people of today had just beter realise they need to come down from this pseudo high life and back to reality. We will and can get through it.
imo

Couple of quick points (have to hit the local for a couple in a minute), firstly, if they were buying gadgets and so on, at least they made them, we on the other hand don't make many SUV's.   Re the paying off of mortgages taken out on overpriced houses, the vast majority are not in properties where that is feasable, most people buying in the past 5/6 years bought 'to get on the ladder' they bought something that would in no way be suitable to their evolving life, but then they didn't buy to live in it long term, now when they have to move on, what can they do?  Take a 50K loss?  Where does that leave them?  Stay in their 2 bed apartment (with one kid and no storage) in Ongar whilst working in the city centre?  Let's hope that job is secure anyway.
Finally, you mentioned how we have bought property being a good investment etc, but that was precisely what the japanese did, they bought property everywhere, that's why they have these generational mortgages, because banks dreamt them up so that they could keep on lending more and more, why do you think the average irish mortgage went from 25 yrs to 35 yrs?  Our banks were doing the same, now, must go, i'm parched!

QuoteWe have the famine and land league to blame for our crazed hell bent desire to buy our own houses.

Jaysus Lynchboy I'm sure you didn't mean it but that statement is ludicrous in isolation. Look to the causes of the mass deaths of the famine or the reasons that lead to the formation of the Land League rather than blaming innocent victims or those who peacefully fought their corner to own their own land.

To blame both of those and not even refer to centuries of occupation, plantation and pillage as possible factors is absurd.

Quote from: Bogball XV on July 03, 2008, 10:05:30 PM
Couple of quick points (have to hit the local for a couple in a minute), firstly, if they were buying gadgets and so on, at least they made them, we on the other hand don't make many SUV's.   Re the paying off of mortgages taken out on overpriced houses, the vast majority are not in properties where that is feasable, most people buying in the past 5/6 years bought 'to get on the ladder' they bought something that would in no way be suitable to their evolving life, but then they didn't buy to live in it long term, now when they have to move on, what can they do?  Take a 50K loss?  Where does that leave them?  Stay in their 2 bed apartment (with one kid and no storage) in Ongar whilst working in the city centre?  Let's hope that job is secure anyway.
Finally, you mentioned how we have bought property being a good investment etc, but that was precisely what the japanese did, they bought property everywhere, that's why they have these generational mortgages, because banks dreamt them up so that they could keep on lending more and more, why do you think the average irish mortgage went from 25 yrs to 35 yrs?  Our banks were doing the same, now, must go, i'm parched!

the gadgets they bought were not just the useful ones like cars etc , but idiotic ones like games and any 'western stuff' that could be imported as being 'like the americans' was a mad over indulgent fad.

The reason why the Japanese are now back ont eh brink of being in the financial game again is because these massive mortgages have started to come near their lifecycle's end and they can now look beyond this again. Hopefully for them this time they will be more cautions.

Anyone looking for investment is now looking at japan, as pretty much everything, companies and property are vastly undervalued.

Our mortgages may need to go from 35yrs to 40-50yrs to emulate the japanese mortgages and stave off foreclosure.
If these houses etc are not big enough for 'families' well the answer is that they have no option.
Sell at a huge loss, move abroad and rent it out and remain paying the mortgage or stay put and bring themselves and any kids up there.
sure how could they afford to have kids if they cant afford the mortgage?
Common sense imo - it wont apply to everyine, but we are both talking about worst case scenarios here I think..

Quote from: muppet on July 04, 2008, 02:47:37 AM

QuoteWe have the famine and land league to blame for our crazed hell bent desire to buy our own houses.

Jaysus Lynchboy I'm sure you didn't mean it but that statement is ludicrous in isolation. Look to the causes of the mass deaths of the famine or the reasons that lead to the formation of the Land League rather than blaming innocent victims or those who peacefully fought their corner to own their own land.

To blame both of those and not even refer to centuries of occupation, plantation and pillage as possible factors is absurd.

did your folks not keep at you to 'buy a house' from an early age?
Mine did and more or less everyone I know (that I have asked or that it has come up in conversation) had it drilled into them to 'buy a house' as soon as they started working.
'Rent is dead money', 'buy a house' etc etc

that, imo is a leftover mindset from the famine/landleague era that has been passed down to even the current generation, I thought this was fairly accepted in society that this is true?
I certainly have seen/heard it being attributed to the reason why Ireland has the highest % ownership of their own houses in the world.

I dont think that statement is ridiculous.

That I have heard it from my own family, that many of my friends have and the % house ownership would seem to hold up this 'argument' ?

I didnt mention occupation/pillage and plantation as factors but if I am correct then I would have done so, as they are contributory factors but much of the same thing.

Quotehe talks about talking about japan but then doesnt..

God forbid any facts would scupper his next 'theory', though I believe his premise that we will suffer for our investment in 'bricks-and-mortar' is worrying.

we all know we're heading for a recession. whats annoying me is the media coverage of it.

bad news everytime you open a paper or look at the news. the thing is you just know they are slowly building up for the headlines of the century "RECESSION - IT'S HERE" !! across the front of every paper and news programme going. every man, woman and child knows we've been verging on this recession since about september of last year.

i think the sooner they just come out with it that we're in recession the better...the sooner any sort of a recovery can then start.

When does a Recession officially start?

Quote from: thejuice on July 10, 2008, 12:56:02 PM
When does a Recession officially start?

I think its 2 quarters in a row of negative growth or something like that.

Quote from: Abble on July 10, 2008, 12:53:23 PM
we all know we're heading for a recession. whats annoying me is the media coverage of it.

bad news everytime you open a paper or look at the news. the thing is you just know they are slowly building up for the headlines of the century "RECESSION - IT'S HERE" !! across the front of every paper and news programme going. every man, woman and child knows we've been verging on this recession since about september of last year.

i think the sooner they just come out with it that we're in recession the better...the sooner any sort of a recovery can then start.

We have been in recession for about 10 months. There has been a steady decline in GNP since about that time. It is here. It's not at a depression but definatley a recession.

we might be in a recession but at least the price of donkeys is going up ;) well according to David Mc Williams

Wednesday September 03 2008

Recently, I overheard a conversation about donkeys at a bar in Connemara. Being a committed suburbanite, the price of donkeys is not something I'd know much about, but this conversation was different. It was as enlightening a discussion as I've heard in years and it contained a profound economic message. Let me introduce the "donkey indicator of consumption" or "DIC" for short.

What can the donkey tell us about the economy? Traditionally, the humble donkey was a sign of poverty. In the old grainy photos, taken by cranium-measuring English anthropologists, the Irish peasants stared vacuously into the lens flanked by their trusted, yet melancholic donkey.

Right up to the early 1980s, the donkey featured prominently in the John Hinde postcard view of Ireland. Everyone must remember the iconic postcard of the two flaming redheaded children, squinting -- as redsers do in the sun -- against the background of the 12 Bens, with the turf-laden donkey. The donkey and backward Ireland were synonymous. Back then, the donkey was known as the "poor man's tractor".

In the past 20 years, the poor donkey was ignored on Irish farms; as the farmers got richer, the stigma attached to the donkey was heightened and no self-respecting, ambitious farmer would be seen dead with a donkey when he could get a Massey Ferguson on hire purchase. So unloved was the poor auld asal, that Ireland became a net exporter of donkeys.

Until recently, the Irish donkey was being shipped out to Spain, where his determined and uncomplaining work ethic was still valued. In Ireland, the working donkey faced extinction. The price of donkeys languished. Three years ago, you could pick up a healthy three-year-old mare for around €500 -- about the same price as a Labrador pup.

But the fortune of the donkey has experienced a rapid turnaround in the past three years. This reversal of fortune was evident in the West last week during the final week for taking home the turf.

Traditionally in the country, turf is cut in March or April and left in big "clamps" to dry out over the summer. Counter-intuitively, the drying season this year was only marginally affected by the torrential rain, because turf doesn't absorb water once it is dry. So all over the West, men took home turf last week. If you witnessed this, you might also have noticed the return of the donkey. Farmers there have reacted to the ludicrous cost of fuel by going back to the donkey. As the price of oil soared, so did the price of the donkey.

Since 2005, the price of the donkey has tripled. Healthy mares are now selling for between €1,200 and €1,800 and there's no sign of demand flagging. The sight of a little neidin laden down with two full "grills" (baskets) of turf is once again commonplace in Connemara. Likewise, the price of turf has increased. It is now trading at around €450 for a "tractor-trailer load" -- this is up almost 70pc in three years.

As the lads at the bar in Connemara were suggesting, the donkey is back and the working donkey is something of value again, thanks to the raging price of fuel. In economics, this development is called the "law of unintended consequences". This occurs when a development (such as the rise of China, which pushes up the world price of oil) ushers in an unexpected new golden age (like that of the donkey in Achill Island). Not even the donkey is immune to global trends.

However, the donkey is not just benefiting from the cost of keeping a tractor on the road, because it is not just the "working donkey" that has seen an increase in his lot over the past two years. The DIC index captures another, related yet separate social trend.

Anyone who was at the marvellous Electric Picnic noticed the environmental theme which ran through the three-day festival. Concern for the environment is now an essential part of the intellectual armoury of the discerning class. It goes together with a knowledge of world music, appreciation of diverse cultures and an understanding of the culinary potential of fennel.

People who are concerned about the environment define themselves by simplicity as opposed to complexity, frugality as opposed to flash. They promote the authentic over the fabricated, the natural over the man-made and the rural over the urban.

What could be more natural, simple and rural, than the humble donkey? As a result, the donkey is coveted by the discriminating class. The donkey is a fashion statement for environmentally concerned second-home owners in the country. In fact, nothing so underlines your hipness and right-on-ness as the sight of your own donkey grazing in the field out the back of the holiday home in Ballyconnely.

For our new environmentally aware middle class, owning, appreciating and telling your friends about your own donkey is a sign of social sophistication.

While your mates' children are stuck inside, glued to "club penguin", your own children are braving the elements, cavorting healthily with their very own donkey. They are at one with nature and the donkey is the poster-boy of the sophisticated elite. Responsible, far-thinking parents buy donkeys. In contrast, lazy, ill-informed parents buy PlayStations.

Thus it came to pass. The humble donkey is back. He is a cost saver against the rapid increase in the price of fuel. He is an environmental bulwark against the destruction of the countryside and he is a highly sought-after appendage for the educated elite.

The donkey is back.

This year saw the first Irish donkey festival which was organised by Dominic Gerraghty, known affectionately as 'Mr Donkey' (woodfieldopenfarm@yahoo.ie). It's a long way from 'M'Asal Beag Dubh', but the "donkey renaissance" is one of the many contradictions of the globalised world.

Next time you want to gauge the impact of higher oil prices, just look over a ditch and see who is looking back out at you.

www.davidmcwilliams.ie

-

yeah the recession has hit home  for me! Told yesterday that i have 6 weeks left. To make matters worse herself could be out of a job this year as well! Her company is closing this year! Tough times indeed!!

not good cicfada, what area of work are you both in?  Hope it works out for you anyway.

Sorry to hear that cicfada. You never know, a year or two down the line and yiz could be both doing something more rewarding you'd never have gotten the chance to do otherwise. Hang in there...

not nice news to get cicfada seems to be getting fairly common judigng by the news today, like donagh said hang in there and hopefully thing will work out for ye.  Was there any sign of the news or was it a complete shock?

Thanks for your wishes guys/gals!! I am in the Civil Engineering side of things and these kinds of things are expected but this did come out of the blue to be honest!! There were another 2 guys let go, and other less experienced people kept on because they are on less money than us! Maybe it's a good time to go back to school now! with 3 kids in tow, there are all kinds of pressures building up on me! As a  normally optimistic person it's hard to see the light at the end of the tunnel this time though!!

QuoteThree years ago, you could pick up a healthy three-year-old mare for around €500 -- about the same price as a Labrador pup.

Who the hell would pay 500 euro for a labrador pup? :o

What the hell is the matter with saving one of the neighbour's border collie pups from the river like most normal people used to do when they needed a dog?

That's shite cic, hang in there.

Think the same is happening alot of people.
Doesn't really matter if people want to call it a recession or not it's pretty shite.

Im in the building game myself Cic and we are letting go people every week. As you said its no reflection of ability, it comes down to cost. i know a lot of smaller builders are sacking their long term workers and employing lads that have been laid off for cheaper money. There are still some jobs out there though but it is getting really tight

Sorry to hear that Cic, for what its worth I still think you made the right move going back, things are no better here in FL with property prices still falling and the building industry really in a bad state. Hang in there.

QuoteThere were another 2 guys let go, and other less experienced people kept on because they are on less money than us

If your company is over a certain minimum size that may be illegal. Look at http://www.citizensinformation.ie/categories[/u]]http://www.citizensinformation.ie/categories (http://[u) to check out your rights.

You may also be entitled to redundancy payements over and above what they offer.

Quote from: muppet on September 03, 2008, 09:26:49 PM

QuoteThere were another 2 guys let go, and other less experienced people kept on because they are on less money than us

If your company is over a certain minimum size that may be illegal. Look at http://www.citizensinformation.ie/categories[/u]]http://www.citizensinformation.ie/categories (http://[u) to check out your rights.

You may also be entitled to redundancy payements over and above what they offer.

Thanks Muppet, but I am not even getting redundancy as I  as with them less than 2 years!! I just might be better off away from the f**kers now!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=01i9x_fmGIA

Stock markets tanking, perhaps because of the C-virus but On top of that we also have another round of QE coming.

Are we perhaps on the brink of a massive recession. Have we kicked that can as far as fiscally possible. I know bitcoin folks are always hammering away at fiat currencies and the federal reserve but they have a point.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=khp3wG55wME

Quote from: thejuice on February 29, 2020, 10:41:17 PM
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=01i9x_fmGIA

Stock markets tanking, perhaps because of the C-virus but On top of that we also have another round of QE coming.

Are we perhaps on the brink of a massive recession. Have we kicked that can as far as fiscally possible. I know bitcoin folks are always hammering away at fiat currencies and the federal reserve but they have a point.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=khp3wG55wME

Are we out of the last recession?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/15/federal-reserve-cuts-rates-to-zero-and-launches-massive-700-billion-quantitative-easing-program.html

Key piece of information here. Many Banks in America are no longer required to hold anything in reserve to lend money. Fractional reserve banking has effectively ended for these banks. They can lend out money they simply don't have in the hope the federal reserve can give it to them. This obviously is being done so that banks can get money out to people as quickly as they can during the Coronavirus shut down. However the fed has been doing overnight lending to banks back in September 2019 which suggests that banks were already having trouble retaining reserves months before this crisis emerged. It would seem that this crisis is going to be used to fundamentally change the financial system in some way because I can easily see this leading to hyper inflation and complete systemic failure.

Socialism the only way forward , capitalism is not sustainable anymore

Quote from: larryin89 on March 22, 2020, 01:01:00 AM
Socialism the only way forward , capitalism is not sustainable anymore

Lol.

I don't think socialism is necessarily a solution given it can be as easily corrupted as capitalism. There needs to be another way that harnesses aspects of both. Either or isn't going to work.

Quote from: larryin89 on March 22, 2020, 01:01:00 AM
Socialism the only way forward , capitalism is not sustainable anymore

If socialism worked, it would have worked.

If and it's a big IF, if this virus takes a hold for over a year, a recession is the least of our worries.

I would say it is more a depression than a recession :(

140,000 unemployed in.one week is shocking

Quote from: seafoid on March 22, 2020, 10:17:47 AM
140,000 unemployed in.one week is shocking

Some estimates as high as 700k by weeks 4-6 . But I have to say listening to all the various commentary in media , I'd be hopeful it won't be a long term set back ala 2008 . Just to add to my socialism point, The juice makes a valid point of mixing it up a bit . I've asked several people over the last few days for example would it be a better country if we paid a lot more PAYE for better quality services provided by the state , everyone I asked said yes .

Quote from: larryin89 on March 22, 2020, 11:33:03 AM

Quote from: seafoid on March 22, 2020, 10:17:47 AM
140,000 unemployed in.one week is shocking

Some estimates as high as 700k by weeks 4-6 . But I have to say listening to all the various commentary in media , I'd be hopeful it won't be a long term set back ala 2008 . Just to add to my socialism point, The juice makes a valid point of mixing it up a bit . I've asked several people over the last few days for example would it be a better country if we paid a lot more PAYE for better quality services provided by the state , everyone I asked said yes .

I'd say they'll obviously say yes after what is happenly recently. 

Ask 6 months ago, you might get a different answer.

Quote from: larryin89 on March 22, 2020, 11:33:03 AM

Quote from: seafoid on March 22, 2020, 10:17:47 AM
140,000 unemployed in.one week is shocking

Some estimates as high as 700k by weeks 4-6 . But I have to say listening to all the various commentary in media , I'd be hopeful it won't be a long term set back ala 2008 . Just to add to my socialism point, The juice makes a valid point of mixing it up a bit . I've asked several people over the last few days for example would it be a better country if we paid a lot more PAYE for better quality services provided by the state , everyone I asked said yes .

We pay a lot already for services that we don't get.
Where does the 18 billion that gets pumped into the health service disappear to?
We have a young population and compared to other countries we put a lot of money into health, yet the service is very poor.

Quote from: Dag Dog on March 22, 2020, 12:23:10 PM

Quote from: larryin89 on March 22, 2020, 11:33:03 AM

Quote from: seafoid on March 22, 2020, 10:17:47 AM
140,000 unemployed in.one week is shocking

Some estimates as high as 700k by weeks 4-6 . But I have to say listening to all the various commentary in media , I'd be hopeful it won't be a long term set back ala 2008 . Just to add to my socialism point, The juice makes a valid point of mixing it up a bit . I've asked several people over the last few days for example would it be a better country if we paid a lot more PAYE for better quality services provided by the state , everyone I asked said yes .

We pay a lot already for services that we don't get.
Where does the 18 billion that gets pumped into the health service disappear to?
We have a young population and compared to other countries we put a lot of money into health, yet the service is very poor.

I get hammered every month on tax, I pay plenty. I might if how things pan out here get some proper rebate if I ended up getting £2500 a month from the government

I closed my shop on Friday night with 12 staff with no job, most of them were part time in fairness but still was sad. Just hope this Government promise is all it's made out to be so i can pay them at least something...

Quote from: Milltown Row2 on March 22, 2020, 08:28:19 AM
If and it's a big IF, if this virus takes a hold for over a year, a recession is the least of our worries.

I think the economy and pandemic are inseparable at the minute. If we don't have some sort of functioning world economy we won't get through this. If one spirals out of control so will the other.

Italy 59 k cases 5476 deaths .

USA 39k cases 396 deaths .

I still don't understand why Italy's ratio is soo off the scale .

Quote from: larryin89 on March 22, 2020, 09:20:45 PM
Italy 59 k cases 5476 deaths .

USA 39k cases 396 deaths .

I still don't understand why Italy's ratio is soo off the scale .

Italy has an older population I have heard. Italy are also further down the line in terms of time. There are more deaths on the way in places like the UK, US and Ireland.

Time accounts for the Italian deaths to some extent, more will die in the USA. However, people live several years longer in Italy also, that success make them more vulnerable now.

Heavy smokers in Italy or just unlucky?

You would imagine, and hope for us in Ireland, that as the Italians are very touchy (ie the kissing on the cheeks) that they may have transmitted it easier than we have done.  Also the Italians have a bit more culture of elderly parents living with their adult children, and grandchildren.

Unsure how much of those two factors are real, but hopefully there is something in it.

Me too. House prices and basically multiple generations of families living together maybe too.

Or maybe it's all wishful thinking but time will tell :(

Quote from: Capt Pat on March 22, 2020, 09:25:05 PM

Quote from: larryin89 on March 22, 2020, 09:20:45 PM
Italy 59 k cases 5476 deaths .

USA 39k cases 396 deaths .

I still don't understand why Italy's ratio is soo off the scale .

Italy has an older population I have heard. Italy are also further down the line in terms of time. There are more deaths on the way in places like the UK, US and Ireland.

It's not just an old people problem in Italy.
Italy has its own peculiarities when it comes to flu like illness.   There were 3 million diagnosed with influenza from October to mid Jan.  Some 35,000 died on average every year from influenza like illnesses (ILI)  over  a 4 year period 2013 -2017
https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(19)30328-5/fulltext#secsect0035 (https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(19)30328-5/fulltext#secsect0035)

Quote from: Main Street on March 22, 2020, 09:55:11 PM

Quote from: Capt Pat on March 22, 2020, 09:25:05 PM

Quote from: larryin89 on March 22, 2020, 09:20:45 PM
Italy 59 k cases 5476 deaths .

USA 39k cases 396 deaths .

I still don't understand why Italy's ratio is soo off the scale .

Italy has an older population I have heard. Italy are also further down the line in terms of time. There are more deaths on the way in places like the UK, US and Ireland.

It's not just an old people problem in Italy.
Italy has its own peculiarities when it comes to flu like illness.   There were 3 million diagnosed with influenza from October to mid Jan.  Some 35,000 died on average every year from influenza like illnesses (ILI)  over  a 4 year period 2013 -2017
https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(19)30328-5/fulltext#secsect0035 (https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(19)30328-5/fulltext#secsect0035)

The prevalence of flu served to conceal the arrival of Covid19.

Quote from: armaghniac on March 22, 2020, 11:34:04 PM

Quote from: Main Street on March 22, 2020, 09:55:11 PM

Quote from: Capt Pat on March 22, 2020, 09:25:05 PM

Quote from: larryin89 on March 22, 2020, 09:20:45 PM
Italy 59 k cases 5476 deaths .

USA 39k cases 396 deaths .

I still don't understand why Italy's ratio is soo off the scale .

Italy has an older population I have heard. Italy are also further down the line in terms of time. There are more deaths on the way in places like the UK, US and Ireland.

It's not just an old people problem in Italy.
Italy has its own peculiarities when it comes to flu like illness.   There were 3 million diagnosed with influenza from October to mid Jan.  Some 35,000 died on average every year from influenza like illnesses (ILI)  over  a 4 year period 2013 -2017
https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(19)30328-5/fulltext#secsect0035 (https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(19)30328-5/fulltext#secsect0035)

The prevalence of flu served to conceal the arrival of Covid19.

Northern Italy even has its respiratory problems prior to this
https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

Quote from: larryin89 on March 22, 2020, 09:20:45 PM
Italy 59 k cases 5476 deaths .

USA 39k cases 396 deaths .

I still don't understand why Italy's ratio is soo off the scale .

There were 14k new cases alone in the US yesterday, it hit Italy about 4 weeks prior to the US. Those death statistics in the US could rise dramatically in the coming weeks.

Quote from: north_antrim_hound on March 23, 2020, 08:48:38 AM

Quote from: armaghniac on March 22, 2020, 11:34:04 PM

Quote from: Main Street on March 22, 2020, 09:55:11 PM

Quote from: Capt Pat on March 22, 2020, 09:25:05 PM

Quote from: larryin89 on March 22, 2020, 09:20:45 PM
Italy 59 k cases 5476 deaths .

USA 39k cases 396 deaths .

I still don't understand why Italy's ratio is soo off the scale .

Italy has an older population I have heard. Italy are also further down the line in terms of time. There are more deaths on the way in places like the UK, US and Ireland.

It's not just an old people problem in Italy.
Italy has its own peculiarities when it comes to flu like illness.   There were 3 million diagnosed with influenza from October to mid Jan.  Some 35,000 died on average every year from influenza like illnesses (ILI)  over  a 4 year period 2013 -2017
https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(19)30328-5/fulltext#secsect0035 (https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(19)30328-5/fulltext#secsect0035)

The prevalence of flu served to conceal the arrival of Covid19.

Northern Italy even has its respiratory problems prior to this
https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

One thing discussed was that both China and Northern Italy have bad pollution. In this respect Ireland is better off.